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Sample records for radiation risk estimates

  1. Radiation risk estimation models

    SciTech Connect

    Hoel, D.G.

    1987-11-01

    Cancer risk models and their relationship to ionizing radiation are discussed. There are many model assumptions and risk factors that have a large quantitative impact on the cancer risk estimates. Other health end points such as mental retardation may be an even more serious risk than cancer for those with in utero exposures. 8 references.

  2. Radiations in space: risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Fry, R J M

    2002-01-01

    The complexity of radiation environments in space makes estimation of risks more difficult than for the protection of terrestrial populations. In deep space the duration of the mission, position in the solar cycle, number and size of solar particle events (SPE) and the spacecraft shielding are the major determinants of risk. In low-earth orbit missions there are the added factors of altitude and orbital inclination. Different radiation qualities such as protons and heavy ions and secondary radiations inside the spacecraft such as neutrons of various energies, have to be considered. Radiation dose rates in space are low except for short periods during very large SPEs. Risk estimation for space activities is based on the human experience of exposure to gamma rays and to a lesser extent X rays. The doses of protons, heavy ions and neutrons are adjusted to take into account the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the different radiation types and thus derive equivalent doses. RBE values and factors to adjust for the effect of dose rate have to be obtained from experimental data. The influence of age and gender on the cancer risk is estimated from the data from atomic bomb survivors. Because of the large number of variables the uncertainities in the probability of the effects are large. Information needed to improve the risk estimates includes: (1) risk of cancer induction by protons, heavy ions and neutrons: (2) influence of dose rate and protraction, particularly on potential tissue effects such as reduced fertility and cataracts: and (3) possible effects of heavy ions on the central nervous system. Risk cannot be eliminated and thus there must be a consensus on what level of risk is acceptable. PMID:12382925

  3. Relating space radiation environments to risk estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Stanley B.

    1993-01-01

    A number of considerations must go into the process of determining the risk of deleterious effects of space radiation to travelers. Among them are (1) determination of the components of the radiation environment (particle species, fluxes and energy spectra) which will encounter, (2) determination of the effects of shielding provided by the spacecraft and the bodies of the travelers which modify the incident particle spectra and mix of particles, and (3) determination of relevant biological effects of the radiation in the organs of interest. The latter can then lead to an estimation of risk from a given space scenario. Clearly, the process spans many scientific disciplines from solar and cosmic ray physics to radiation transport theeory to the multistage problem of the induction by radiation of initial lesions in living material and their evolution via physical, chemical, and biological processes at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels to produce the end point of importance.

  4. Relating space radiation environments to risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.B. ||

    1993-12-31

    A number of considerations must go into the process of determining the risk of deleterious effects of space radiation to travelers. Among them are (1) determination of the components of the radiation environment (particle species, fluxes and energy spectra) which will encounter, (2) determination of the effects of shielding provided by the spacecraft and the bodies of the travelers which modify the incident particle spectra and mix of particles, and (3) determination of relevant biological effects of the radiation in the organs of interest. The latter can then lead to an estimation of risk from a given space scenario. Clearly, the process spans many scientific disciplines from solar and cosmic ray physics to radiation transport theeory to the multistage problem of the induction by radiation of initial lesions in living material and their evolution via physical, chemical, and biological processes at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels to produce the end point of importance.

  5. [Epidemiological data and radiation risk estimates].

    PubMed

    Cardis, E

    2002-01-01

    The results of several major epidemiology studies on populations with particular exposure to ionizing radiation should become available during the first years of the 21(st) century. These studies are expected to provide answers to a number of questions concerning public health and radiation protection. Most of the populations concerned were accidentally exposed to radiation in ex-USSR or elsewhere or in a nuclear industrial context. The results will complete and test information on risk coming from studies among survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, particularly studies on the effects of low dose exposure and prolonged low-dose exposure, of different types of radiation, and environmental and host-related factors which could modify the risk of radiation-induced effects. These studies are thus important to assess the currently accepted scientific evidence on radiation protection for workers and the general population. In addition, supplementary information on radiation protection could be provided by formal comparisons and analyses combining data from populations with different types of exposure. Finally, in order to provide pertinent information for public health and radiation protection, future epidemiology studies should be targeted and designed to answer specific questions, concerning, for example, the risk for specific populations (children, patients, people with genetic predisposition). An integrated approach, combining epidemiology and studies on the mechanisms of radiation induction should provide particularly pertinent information. PMID:11938114

  6. Estimated radiation risks associated with endodontic radiography.

    PubMed

    Danforth, R A; Torabinejad, M

    1990-02-01

    Endodontic patients are sometimes concerned about the risks of tumors or cataracts from radiation exposure during root canal therapy. By using established dose and risk information, we calculated the extent of these risks. The chance of getting leukemia from an endodontic x-ray survey using 90 kVp was found to be 1 in 7.69 million, the same as the risk of dying from cancer from smoking 0.94 cigarettes or from an auto accident when driving 3.7 km. Risk of thyroid gland neoplasia was 1 in 667,000 (smoking 11.6 cigarettes, driving 45 km) and risk of salivary gland neoplasia 1 in 1.35 million (smoking 5.4 cigarettes, driving 21.1 km). Use of 70 kVp radiography reduced these risks only slightly. To receive the threshold dose to eyes to produce cataract changes, a patient would have to undergo 10,900 endodontic surveys. PMID:2390963

  7. Relating space radiation environments to risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.B.

    1991-10-01

    This lecture will provide a bridge from the physical energy or LET spectra as might be calculated in an organ to the risk of carcinogenesis, a particular concern for extended missions to the moon or beyond to Mars. Topics covered will include (1) LET spectra expected from galactic cosmic rays, (2) probabilities that individual cell nuclei in the body will be hit by heavy galactic cosmic ray particles, (3) the conventional methods of calculating risks from a mixed environment of high and low LET radiation, (4) an alternate method which provides certain advantages using fluence-related risk coefficients (risk cross sections), and (5) directions for future research and development of these ideas.

  8. Risk estimation based on chromosomal aberrations induced by radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durante, M.; Bonassi, S.; George, K.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2001-01-01

    The presence of a causal association between the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes and the risk of cancer has been substantiated recently by epidemiological studies. Cytogenetic analyses of crew members of the Mir Space Station have shown that a significant increase in the frequency of chromosomal aberrations can be detected after flight, and that such an increase is likely to be attributed to the radiation exposure. The risk of cancer can be estimated directly from the yields of chromosomal aberrations, taking into account some aspects of individual susceptibility and other factors unrelated to radiation. However, the use of an appropriate technique for the collection and analysis of chromosomes and the choice of the structural aberrations to be measured are crucial in providing sound results. Based on the fraction of aberrant lymphocytes detected before and after flight, the relative risk after a long-term Mir mission is estimated to be about 1.2-1.3. The new technique of mFISH can provide useful insights into the quantification of risk on an individual basis.

  9. Cancer risk estimation caused by radiation exposure during endovascular procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Y. H.; Cho, J. H.; Yun, W. S.; Park, K. H.; Kim, H. G.; Kwon, S. M.

    2014-05-01

    The objective of this study was to identify the radiation exposure dose of patients, as well as staff caused by fluoroscopy for C-arm-assisted vascular surgical operation and to estimate carcinogenic risk due to such exposure dose. The study was conducted in 71 patients (53 men and 18 women) who had undergone vascular surgical intervention at the division of vascular surgery in the University Hospital from November of 2011 to April of 2012. It had used a mobile C-arm device and calculated the radiation exposure dose of patient (dose-area product, DAP). Effective dose was measured by attaching optically stimulated luminescence on the radiation protectors of staff who participates in the surgery to measure the radiation exposure dose of staff during the vascular surgical operation. From the study results, DAP value of patients was 308.7 Gy cm2 in average, and the maximum value was 3085 Gy cm2. When converted to the effective dose, the resulted mean was 6.2 m Gy and the maximum effective dose was 61.7 milliSievert (mSv). The effective dose of staff was 3.85 mSv; while the radiation technician was 1.04 mSv, the nurse was 1.31 mSv. All cancer incidences of operator are corresponding to 2355 persons per 100,000 persons, which deemed 1 of 42 persons is likely to have all cancer incidences. In conclusion, the vascular surgeons should keep the radiation protection for patient, staff, and all participants in the intervention in mind as supervisor of fluoroscopy while trying to understand the effects by radiation by themselves to prevent invisible danger during the intervention and to minimize the harm.

  10. Probabilistic methodology for estimating radiation-induced cancer risk

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Williams, L.R.

    1981-01-01

    The RICRAC computer code was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide a versatile and convenient methodology for radiation risk assessment. The code allows as input essentially any dose pattern commonly encountered in risk assessments for either acute or chronic exposures, and it includes consideration of the age structure of the exposed population. Results produced by the analysis include the probability of one or more radiation-induced cancer deaths in a specified population, expected numbers of deaths, and expected years of life lost as a result of premature fatalities. These calculatons include consideration of competing risks of death from all other causes. The program also generates a probability frequency distribution of the expected number of cancers in any specified cohort resulting from a given radiation dose. The methods may be applied to any specified population and dose scenario.

  11. Radiation-Induced Leukemia at Doses Relevant to Radiation Therapy: Modeling Mechanisms and Estimating Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shuryak, Igor; Sachs, Rainer K.; Hlatky, Lynn; Mark P. Little; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Brenner, David J.

    2006-01-01

    Because many cancer patients are diagnosed earlier and live longer than in the past, second cancers induced by radiation therapy have become a clinically significant issue. An earlier biologically based model that was designed to estimate risks of high-dose radiation induced solid cancers included initiation of stem cells to a premalignant state, inactivation of stem cells at high radiation doses, and proliferation of stem cells during cellular repopulation after inactivation. This earlier model predicted the risks of solid tumors induced by radiation therapy but overestimated the corresponding leukemia risks. Methods: To extend the model to radiation-induced leukemias, we analyzed in addition to cellular initiation, inactivation, and proliferation a repopulation mechanism specific to the hematopoietic system: long-range migration through the blood stream of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from distant locations. Parameters for the model were derived from HSC biologic data in the literature and from leukemia risks among atomic bomb survivors v^ ho were subjected to much lower radiation doses. Results: Proliferating HSCs that migrate from sites distant from the high-dose region include few preleukemic HSCs, thus decreasing the high-dose leukemia risk. The extended model for leukemia provides risk estimates that are consistent with epidemiologic data for leukemia risk associated with radiation therapy over a wide dose range. For example, when applied to an earlier case-control study of 110000 women undergoing radiotherapy for uterine cancer, the model predicted an excess relative risk (ERR) of 1.9 for leukemia among women who received a large inhomogeneous fractionated external beam dose to the bone marrow (mean = 14.9 Gy), consistent with the measured ERR (2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 6.4; from 3.6 cases expected and 11 cases observed). As a corresponding example for brachytherapy, the predicted ERR of 0.80 among women who received an inhomogeneous low

  12. [Estimation of the radiation risk of determined effects of human exposure in space].

    PubMed

    Petrov, V M; Vasina, Iu I; Vlasov, A G; Shurshakov, V A

    2001-01-01

    Subject of the paper is possibility to estimate radiation risk of determined consequences of exposure to solar space rays as a probability of violation of established dose limits. Analysis of specifies of spacecrew exposure to solar space rays in a long-term, particularly interplanetary mission suggests that immediate introduction of the principle in the radiation health policy can result in serious errors, mainly exaggeration, in determination of radiation risk. Proposed are approaches to radiation risk estimation with consideration of the specific of human exposure in space. PMID:11915752

  13. Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

  14. Estimate of Space Radiation-Induced Cancer Risks for International Space Station Orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Honglu; Atwell, William; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Yang, Chui-hsu

    1996-01-01

    Excess cancer risks from exposures to space radiation are estimated for various orbits of the International Space Station (ISS). Organ exposures are computed with the transport codes, BRYNTRN and HZETRN, and the computerized anatomical male and computerized anatomical female models. Cancer risk coefficients in the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements report No. 98 are used to generate lifetime excess cancer incidence and cancer mortality after a one-month mission to ISS. The generated data are tabulated to serve as a quick reference for assessment of radiation risk to astronauts on ISS missions.

  15. Estimate of Space Radiation-Induced Cancer Risks for International Space Station Orbits

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, H.; Atwell, W.; Cucinotta, F.A.; Yang, C.

    1996-03-01

    Excess cancer risks from exposures to space radiation are estimated for various orbits of the International Space Station (ISS). Organ exposures are computed with the transport codes, BRYNTRN and HZETRN, and the computerized anatomical male and computerized anatomical female models. Cancer risk coefficients in the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements report No. 98 are used to generate lifetime excess cancer incidence and cancer mortality after a one-month mission to ISS. The generated data are tabulated to serve as a quick reference for assessment of radiation risk to astronauts on ISS missions.

  16. Problems and solutions in the estimation of genetic risks from radiation and chemicals

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, W. L.

    1980-01-01

    Extensive investigations with mice on the effects of various physical and biological factors, such as dose rate, sex and cell stage, on radiation-induced mutation have provided an evaluation of the genetics hazards of radiation in man. The mutational results obtained in both sexes with progressive lowering of the radiation dose rate have permitted estimation of the mutation frequency expected under the low-level radiation conditions of most human exposure. Supplementing the studies on mutation frequency are investigations on the phenotypic effects of mutations in mice, particularly anatomical disorders of the skeleton, which allow an estimation of the degree of human handicap associated with the occurrence of parallel defects in man. Estimation of the genetic risk from chemical mutagens is much more difficult, and the research is much less advanced. Results on transmitted mutations in mice indicate a poor correlation with mutation induction in non-mammalian organisms.

  17. Cumulative Radiation Exposure and Cancer Risk Estimation in Children with Heart Disease

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Jason N.; Hornik, Christoph P.; Li, Jennifer S.; Benjamin, Daniel K.; Yoshizumi, Terry; Reiman, Robert E.; Frush, Donald P.; Hill, Kevin D.

    2014-01-01

    Background Children with heart disease are frequently exposed to imaging examinations using ionizing radiation. Although radiation exposure is potentially carcinogenic, there are limited data on cumulative exposure and the associated cancer risk. We evaluated the cumulative effective dose (ED) of radiation from all radiation examinations to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer in children with heart disease. Methods and Results Children ≤6 years of age who had previously undergone 1 of 7 primary surgical procedures for heart disease at a single institution between 2005 and 2010 were eligible. Exposure to radiation-producing examinations was tabulated, and cumulative ED was calculated in millisievert (mSv). These data were used to estimate LAR of cancer above baseline using the approach of the Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII. The cohort included 337 children exposed to 13,932 radiation examinations. Conventional radiographs represented 92% of examinations, while cardiac catheterization and computed tomography accounted for 81% of cumulative exposure. Overall median cumulative ED was 2.7 mSv (range 0.1–76.9 mSv), and the associated LAR of cancer was 0.07% (range 0.001–6.5%). Median LAR of cancer ranged widely depending on surgical complexity (0.006–1.6% for the 7 surgical cohorts) and was twice as high in females per unit exposure (0.04% versus 0.02% per 1 mSv ED for females versus males, respectively; p<0.001). Conclusions Overall radiation exposures in children with heart disease are relatively low, however select cohorts receive significant exposure. Cancer risk estimation highlights the need for limiting radiation dose, particularly for high-exposure modalities. PMID:24914037

  18. Biologically based risk estimation for radiation-induced CML. Inferences from BCR and ABL geometric distributions.

    PubMed

    Radivoyevitch, T; Kozubek, S; Sachs, R K

    2001-03-01

    Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) invites biologically based radiation risk modeling because CML is simultaneously well-understood, homogeneous and prevalent. CML is known to be caused by a translocation involving the ABL and BCR genes, almost all CML patients have the BCR-ABL translocation, and CML is prevalent enough that its induction is unequivocally detected among Hiroshima A-bomb survivors. In a previous paper, a linear-quadratic-exponential (LQE) dose-response model was used to estimate the lifetime excess risk of CML in the limit of low doses of gamma-rays, R gamma. This estimate assumed that BCR-ABL translocation dose-response curves in stem cells for both neutrons and gamma-rays, differ only by a common proportionality constant from dicentric aberration dose-response curves in lymphocytes. In the present paper we challenge this assumption by predicting the BCR-ABL dose response. The predictions are based on the biophysical theory of dual radiation action (TDRA) as it applies to recent BCR-to-ABL distance data in G0 human lymphocytes; this data shows BCR and ABL geometric distributions that are not uniform and not independent, with close association of the two genes in some cells. The analysis speaks against the previous proportionality assumption. We compute 11 plausible LQE estimates of R gamma, 2 based on the proportionality assumption and 9 based on TDRA predictions. For each estimate of R gamma we also compute an associated estimate of the number of CML target cells, N; the biological basis of the LQE model allows us to form such estimates. Consistency between N and hematological considerations provides a plausibility check of the risk estimates. Within the group of estimates investigated, the most plausible lifetime excess risk estimates tend to lie near R gamma = 0.01 Gy-1, substantially higher than risk estimates based on the proportionality assumption. PMID:11357705

  19. Estimating risk.

    PubMed

    2016-07-01

    A free mobile phone app has been launched providing nurses and other hospital clinicians with a simple way to identify high-risk surgical patients. The app is a phone version of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT), originally developed for online use with computers by researchers from the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death and the University College London Hospital Surgical Outcomes Research Centre. SORT uses information about patients' health and planned surgical procedures to estimate the risk of death within 30 days of an operation. The percentages are only estimates, taking into account the general risks of the procedures and some information about patients, and should not be confused with patient-specific estimates in individual cases. PMID:27369709

  20. Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P.; Dicelli, J. F.

    2002-01-01

    The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

  1. Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

    2004-01-01

    Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

  2. Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, F A; Schimmerling, W; Wilson, J W; Peterson, L E; Saganti, P B; Dicello, J F

    2004-01-01

    Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. PMID:15881779

  3. Estimated Risk Level of Unified Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy Dose Tolerance Limits for Spinal Cord.

    PubMed

    Grimm, Jimm; Sahgal, Arjun; Soltys, Scott G; Luxton, Gary; Patel, Ashish; Herbert, Scott; Xue, Jinyu; Ma, Lijun; Yorke, Ellen; Adler, John R; Gibbs, Iris C

    2016-04-01

    A literature review of more than 200 stereotactic body radiation therapy spine articles from the past 20 years found only a single article that provided dose-volume data and outcomes for each spinal cord of a clinical dataset: the Gibbs 2007 article (Gibbs et al, 2007(1)), which essentially contains the first 100 stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) spine treatments from Stanford University Medical Center. The dataset is modeled and compared in detail to the rest of the literature review, which found 59 dose tolerance limits for the spinal cord in 1-5 fractions. We partitioned these limits into a unified format of high-risk and low-risk dose tolerance limits. To estimate the corresponding risk level of each limit we used the Gibbs 2007 clinical spinal cord dose-volume data for 102 spinal metastases in 74 patients treated by spinal radiosurgery. In all, 50 of the patients were previously irradiated to a median dose of 40Gy in 2-3Gy fractions and 3 patients developed treatment-related myelopathy. These dose-volume data were digitized into the dose-volume histogram (DVH) Evaluator software tool where parameters of the probit dose-response model were fitted using the maximum likelihood approach (Jackson et al, 1995(3)). Based on this limited dataset, for de novo cases the unified low-risk dose tolerance limits yielded an estimated risk of spinal cord injury of ≤1% in 1-5 fractions, and the high-risk limits yielded an estimated risk of ≤3%. The QUANTEC Dmax limits of 13Gy in a single fraction and 20Gy in 3 fractions had less than 1% risk estimated from this dataset, so we consider these among the low-risk limits. In the previously irradiated cohort, the estimated risk levels for 10 and 14Gy maximum cord dose limits in 5 fractions are 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. Longer follow-up and more patients are required to improve the risk estimates and provide more complete validation. PMID:27000514

  4. Combining Radiation Epidemiology With Molecular Biology-Changing From Health Risk Estimates to Therapeutic Intervention.

    PubMed

    Abend, Michael; Port, Matthias

    2016-08-01

    The authors herein summarize six presentations dedicated to the key session "molecular radiation epidemiology" of the ConRad meeting 2015. These presentations were chosen in order to highlight the promise when combining conventional radiation epidemiology with molecular biology. Conventional radiation epidemiology uses dose estimates for risk predictions on health. However, combined with molecular biology, dose-dependent bioindicators of effect hold the promise to improve clinical diagnostics and to provide target molecules for potential therapeutic intervention. One out of the six presentations exemplified the use of radiation-induced molecular changes as biomarkers of exposure by measuring stabile chromosomal translocations. The remaining five presentations focused on molecular changes used as bioindicators of the effect. These bioindicators of the effect could be used for diagnostic purposes on colon cancers (genomic instability), thyroid cancer (CLIP2), or head and neck squamous cell cancers. Therapeutic implications of gene expression changes were examined in Chernobyl thyroid cancer victims and Mayak workers. PMID:27356062

  5. Estimates of Radiation Doses and Cancer Risk from Food Intake in Korea

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate internal radiation doses and lifetime cancer risk from food ingestion. Radiation doses from food intake were calculated using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the measured radioactivity of 134Cs, 137Cs, and 131I from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea. Total number of measured data was 8,496 (3,643 for agricultural products, 644 for livestock products, 43 for milk products, 3,193 for marine products, and 973 for processed food). Cancer risk was calculated by multiplying the estimated committed effective dose and the detriment adjusted nominal risk coefficients recommended by the International Commission on Radiation Protection. The lifetime committed effective doses from the daily diet are ranged 2.957-3.710 mSv. Excess lifetime cancer risks are 14.4-18.1, 0.4-0.5, and 1.8-2.3 per 100,000 for all solid cancers combined, thyroid cancer, and leukemia, respectively. PMID:26770031

  6. Estimates of Radiation Doses and Cancer Risk from Food Intake in Korea.

    PubMed

    Moon, Eun-Kyeong; Ha, Wi-Ho; Seo, Songwon; Jin, Young Woo; Jeong, Kyu Hwan; Yoon, Hae-Jung; Kim, Hyoung-Soo; Hwang, Myung-Sil; Choi, Hoon; Lee, Won Jin

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate internal radiation doses and lifetime cancer risk from food ingestion. Radiation doses from food intake were calculated using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the measured radioactivity of (134)Cs, (137)Cs, and (131)I from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea. Total number of measured data was 8,496 (3,643 for agricultural products, 644 for livestock products, 43 for milk products, 3,193 for marine products, and 973 for processed food). Cancer risk was calculated by multiplying the estimated committed effective dose and the detriment adjusted nominal risk coefficients recommended by the International Commission on Radiation Protection. The lifetime committed effective doses from the daily diet are ranged 2.957-3.710 mSv. Excess lifetime cancer risks are 14.4-18.1, 0.4-0.5, and 1.8-2.3 per 100,000 for all solid cancers combined, thyroid cancer, and leukemia, respectively. PMID:26770031

  7. Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

    1984-05-01

    Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables.

  8. Radiation carcinogenesis in man: influence of dose-response models and risk projection models in the estimation of risk coefficients following exposure to low-level radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1982-02-01

    The somatic effects of concern in human populations exposed to low doses and low dose rates of ionizing radiations are those that may be induced by mutation in individual cells, singly or in small numbers. The most important of these is considered to be cancer induction. Current knowledge of the carcinogenic effect of radiation in man has been reviewed in two recent reports: the 1977 UNSCEAR Report; and the 1980 BEIR-III Report. Both reports emphasize that cancers of the breast, thyroid, hematopoietic tissues, lung, and bone can be induced by radiation. Other cancers, including the stomach, pancreas, pharynx, lymphatic, and perhaps all tissues of the body, may also be induced by radiation. Both reports calculate risk estimates in absolute and relative terms for low-dose, low-LET whole-body exposure, and for leukemia, breast cancer, thyroid cancer, lung cancer, and other cancers. These estimates derive from exposure and cancer incidence data at high doses and at high dose rates. There are no compelling scientific reasons to apply these values of risk to the very low doses and low dose rates of concern in human radiation protection. In the absence of reliable human data for calculating risk estimates, dose-response models have been constructed from extrapolations of animal data and high-dose-rate human data for projection of estimated risks at low doses and low dose rates. (ERB)

  9. Radiation doses and estimated risk from angiographic projections during coronary angiography performed using novel flat detector.

    PubMed

    Varghese, Anna; Livingstone, Roshan S; Varghese, Lijo; Kumar, Parveen; Srinath, Sirish Chandra; George, Oommen K; George, Paul V

    2016-01-01

    Coronary angiography (CA) procedure uses various angiographic projections to elicit detailed information of the coronary arteries with some steep projections involving high radiation dose to patients. This study intends to evaluate radiation doses and estimated risk from angiographic projections during CA procedure performed using novel flat detector (FD) system with improved image processing and noise reduction techniques. Real-time monitoring of radiation doses using kerma-area product (KAP) meter was performed for 140 patients using Philips Clarity FD system. The CA procedure involved seven standard projections, of which five were extensively selected by interventionalists. Mean fluoroscopic time (FT), KAP, and reference air kerma (Ka,r) for CA procedure were 3.24 min (0.5-10.51), 13.99Gycm2 (4.02-37.6), and 231.43 mGy (73.8-622.15), respectively. Effective dose calculated using Monte Carlo-based PCXMC software was found to be 4.9mSv. Left anterior oblique (LAO) 45° projection contributed the highest radiation dose (28%) of the overall KAP. Radiation-induced risk was found to be higher in females compared to males with increased risk of lung cancer. An increase of 10%-15% in radiation dose was observed when one or more additional projections were adopted along with the seven standard projections. A 14% reduction of radiation dose was achieved from novel FD system when low-dose protocol during fluoroscopy and medium-dose protocol during cine acquisitions were adopted, compared to medium-dose protocol. PMID:27167263

  10. Estimation of Effective Doses for Radiation Cancer Risks on ISS, Lunar, and Mars Missions with Space Radiation Measurement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, M.Y.; Cucinotta, F.A.

    2005-01-01

    Radiation protection practices define the effective dose as a weighted sum of equivalent dose over major sites for radiation cancer risks. Since a crew personnel dosimeter does not make direct measurement of effective dose, it has been estimated with skin-dose measurements and radiation transport codes for ISS and STS missions. The Phantom Torso Experiment (PTE) of NASA s Operational Radiation Protection Program has provided the actual flight measurements of active and passive dosimeters which were placed throughout the phantom on STS-91 mission for 10 days and on ISS Increment 2 mission. For the PTE, the variation in organ doses, which is resulted by the absorption and the changes in radiation quality with tissue shielding, was considered by measuring doses at many tissue sites and at several critical body organs including brain, colon, heart, stomach, thyroid, and skins. These measurements have been compared with the organ dose calculations obtained from the transport models. Active TEPC measurements of lineal energy spectra at the surface of the PTE also provided the direct comparison of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) or trapped proton dose and dose equivalent. It is shown that orienting the phantom body as actual in ISS is needed for the direct comparison of the transport models to the ISS data. One of the most important observations for organ dose equivalent of effective dose estimates on ISS is the fractional contribution from trapped protons and GCR. We show that for most organs over 80% is from GCR. The improved estimation of effective doses for radiation cancer risks will be made with the resultant tissue weighting factors and the modified codes.

  11. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    SciTech Connect

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John; Lyraraki, Efrossyni

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the

  12. Improved Radiation Dosimetry/Risk Estimates to Facilitate Environmental Management of Plutonium-Contaminated Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Bobby R.; Tokarskaya, Zoya B.; Zhuntova, Galina V.; Osovets, Sergey V.; Syrchikov, Victor A., Belyaeva, Zinaida D.

    2007-12-14

    This report summarizes 4 years of research achievements in this Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) project. The research described was conducted by scientists and supporting staff at Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute (LRRI)/Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Institute (LBERI) and the Southern Urals Biophysics Institute (SUBI). All project objectives and goals were achieved. A major focus was on obtaining improved cancer risk estimates for exposure via inhalation to plutonium (Pu) isotopes in the workplace (DOE radiation workers) and environment (public exposures to Pu-contaminated soil). A major finding was that low doses and dose rates of gamma rays can significantly suppress cancer induction by alpha radiation from inhaled Pu isotopes. The suppression relates to stimulation of the body's natural defenses, including immunity against cancer cells and selective apoptosis which removes precancerous and other aberrant cells.

  13. Risk estimates for radiation-induced cancer--the epidemiological evidence.

    PubMed

    Kellerer, A M

    2000-03-01

    The risk of low-dose radiation exposures has--for a variety of reasons--been highly politicised. This has led to a frequently exaggerated perception of the potential health effects, and to lasting public controversies. A balanced view requires a critical reassessment of the epidemiological basis of current assumptions. There is reliable quantitative information available on the increase of cancer rates due to moderate and high doses. This provides a firm basis for the derivation of probabilities of causation, e.g. after high radiation exposures. For small doses or dose rates, the situation is entirely different: potential increases of cancer rates remain hidden below the statistical fluctuations of normal rates, and the molecular mechanisms of cancerogenesis are not sufficiently well known to allow numerical predictions. Risk coefficients for radiation protection must, therefore, be based on the uncertain extrapolation of observations obtained at moderate or high doses. While extrapolation is arbitrary, it is, nevertheless, used and mostly with the conservative assumption of a linear dose dependence with no threshold (LNT model). All risk estimates are based on this hypothesis. They are, thus, virtual guidelines, rather than firm numbers. The observations on the A-bomb survivors are still the major source of information on the health effects of comparatively small radiation doses. A fairly direct inspection of the data shows that the solid cancer mortality data of the A-bomb survivors are equally consistent with linearity in dose and with reduced effectiveness at low doses. In the leukemia data a reduction is strongly indicated. With one notable exception -- leukemia after prenatal exposure--these observations are in line with a multitude of observations in groups of persons exposed for medical reasons. The low-dose effects of densely ionizing radiations--such as alpha-particles from radon decay products or high-energy neutrons--are a separate important issue. For

  14. ADVISORY ON UPDATED METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) published the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) committee's report (BEIR VII) on risks from ionizing radiation exposures in 2006. The Committee analyzed the most recent epidemiology from the important exposed cohorts and factor...

  15. Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

    SciTech Connect

    Li Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P.

    2011-01-15

    Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient's clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller

  16. Radiation passport: an iPhone and iPod touch application to track radiation dose and estimate associated cancer risks.

    PubMed

    Baerlocher, Mark Otto; Talanow, Roland; Baerlocher, Adrian F

    2010-04-01

    The rapid increase in the use of radiology and related exams and procedures has led to a concomitant increase in associated radiation risk. An application for the iPhone and iPod Touch called 'Radiation Passport' is described, which provides radiation dose estimates and associated cancer risks (non fatal and fatal) and serves as a method by which to track an individual's cumulative exposure. PMID:20362943

  17. On the estimation of radiation-induced cancer risks from very low doses of radiation and how to communicate these risks.

    PubMed

    Mattsson, Sören; Nilsson, Mats

    2015-07-01

    The article is intended to give a short overview of epidemiological data on cancer risks associated with very low absorbed doses of ionising radiation. The linear no-threshold (LNT) approach to estimate cancer risks involves the use of epidemiological data at higher doses (>100 mSv), but is supported by data from lower exposure of more sensitive population groups like fetuses and children and the presence of rare types of cancer. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) concludes that the LNT model, combined with a dose and dose-rate effectiveness (reduction) factor (DDREF) of 2 for extrapolation from high doses, should be used. The numerical value of the DDREF is challenged by the findings from some recent epidemiological studies demonstrating risks per unit dose compatible with the risks observed in the higher dose studies. In general there is very limited knowledge about the cancer risk after low absorbed doses (10-100 mSv), as most of epidemiological studies have limitations in detecting small excess risks arising from low doses of radiation against fluctuations in the influence of background risk factors. Even if there may be significant deviations from linearity in the relevant dose range 0-100 mSv, one does not know the magnitude or even the direction of any such deviations. The risks could be lower than those predicted by a linear extrapolation, but they could also be higher. Until more results concerning the effects of low-dose exposure are available, a reasonable radiation protection approach is to consider the risk proportional to the dose. PMID:25802468

  18. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

  20. CONSULTATION ON UPDATED METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) expects to publish the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) committee's report (BEIR VII) on risks from ionizing radiation exposures in calendar year 2005. The committee is expected to have analyzed the most recent epidemiology f...

  1. Radiation risk estimation and its application to human beings in space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinclair, Warren K.

    The number of human beings likely to spend time in space will increase as time goes on. While exposures vary according to missions, orbits, shielding, etc., an average space radiation fluence (ignoring solar flares, radiation belts and anomalous regions in space) in locations close to earth is about 10 rad/year with a quality factor of about 5.5 /1/. The potential effects of exposure to these fluences include both non-stochastic effects and stochastic effects (cancer and genetic damage). Non-stochastic effects, damage to the lens of the eye, bone marrow or gonads, can be avoided by keeping radiation limits below threshold values. Stochastic effects imply risk at all levels. The magnitude of these risks has been discussed in a number of reports by the UNSCEAR Committee and the BEIR Committee in the USA during 1970-1980. The uncertainties associated with these risks and information which has become available since the last BEIR report is discussed. In considering reasonable limits for exposure in space, acceptable levels for stochastic risks must be based on appropriate comparisons. In view of the limited term of duty of most space workers, a lifetime limit may be appropriate. This lifetime limit might be comparable in terms of risks with limits for radiation workers on the ground but received at a higher annual rate for a shorter time. These and other approaches are expected to be considered by an NCRP Committee currently examining the problem of space radiation hazards.

  2. REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainti...

  3. Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in pediatric chest CT: a study in 30 patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

    2010-04-01

    Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dosereporting system that provides radiation dose and cancer risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. Recently, we reported a method for estimating patientspecific dose from pediatric chest CT. The purpose of this study is to extend that effort to patient-specific risk estimation and to a population of pediatric CT patients. Our study included thirty pediatric CT patients (16 males and 14 females; 0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created based on the patients' clinical CT data. Using a validated Monte Carlo program, organ dose received by the thirty patients from a chest scan protocol (LightSpeed VCT, 120 kVp, 1.375 pitch, 40-mm collimation, pediatric body scan field-of-view) was simulated and used to estimate patient-specific effective dose. Risks of cancer incidence were calculated for radiosensitive organs using gender-, age-, and tissue-specific risk coefficients and were used to derive patientspecific effective risk. The thirty patients had normalized effective dose of 3.7-10.4 mSv/100 mAs and normalized effective risk of 0.5-5.8 cases/1000 exposed persons/100 mAs. Normalized lung dose and risk of lung cancer correlated strongly with average chest diameter (correlation coefficient: r = -0.98 to -0.99). Normalized effective risk also correlated strongly with average chest diameter (r = -0.97 to -0.98). These strong correlations can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk prior to or after an imaging study to potentially guide healthcare providers in justifying CT examinations and to guide individualized protocol design and optimization.

  4. Enhanced Intestinal Tumor Multiplicity and Grade in vivo after HZE Exposure: Mouse Models for Space Radiation Risk Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Trani, Daniela; Datta, Kamal; Doiron, Kathryn; Kallakury, Bhaskar; Fornace, Albert J.

    2013-01-01

    Carcinogenesis induced by space radiation is considered a major risk factor in manned interplanetary and other extended missions. The models presently used to estimate the risk for cancer induction following deep space radiation exposure are based on data from A-bomb survivor cohorts and do not account for important biological differences existing between high-linear energy transfer (LET) and low-LET-induced DNA damage. High-energy and charge (HZE) radiation, the main component of galactic cosmic rays (CGR), causes highly complex DNA damage compared to low-LET radiation, which may lead to increased frequency of chromosomal rearrangements, and contribute to carcinogenic risk in astronauts. Gastrointestinal (GI) tumors are frequent in the United States, and colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer accounting for 10% of all cancer deaths. On the basis of the aforementioned epidemiological observations and the frequency of spontaneous precancerous GI lesions in the general population, even a modest increase in incidence by space radiation exposure could have a significant effect on health risk estimates for future manned space flights. Ground-based research is necessary to reduce the uncertainties associated with projected cancer risk estimates and to gain insights into molecular mechanisms involved in space radiation-induced carcinogenesis. We investigated in vivo differential effects of γ-rays and HZE ions on intestinal tumorigenesis using two different murine models, ApcMin/+ and Apc1638 N/+. We showed that γ- and/or HZE exposure significantly enhances development and progression of intestinal tumors in a mutant-line-specific manner, and identified suitable models for in vivo studies of space radiation–induced intestinal tumorigenesis. PMID:20490531

  5. Space Radiation Cancer Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2007-01-01

    Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation

  6. Radiation Exposure to Patient and Staff in Hepatic Chemoembolization: Risk Estimation of Cancer and Deterministic Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Hidajat, Nico Wust, Peter; Felix, Roland; Schroeder, Ralf Juergen

    2006-10-15

    The purpose of the study was to determine the risks of radiation-induced cancer and deterministic effects for the patient and staff in transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Sixty-five patients with HCC underwent the first cycle of TACE. Thermoluminescence dosemeters and conversion factors were used to measure surface doses and to calculate organ doses and effective dose. For the patient, the risk of fatal cancer and severe genetic defect was in the magnitude of 10{sup -4} and 10{sup -5}, respectively. Five patients showed surface doses over the first lumbar vertebra exceeding 2000 mSv and 45 patients showed doses over the spine or the liver region above 500 mSv. The risk of fatal cancer and severe genetic defect for the radiologist and assistant was in the magnitude of 10{sup -7} to 10{sup -8}. They could exceed the threshold for lens opacity in the case of more than 490 and 1613 TACE yearly for a period of many years, respectively. Radiation dose could lead to local transient erythema and/or local depression of hematopoiesis in many patients after TACE. For the radiologist and assistant, risk of fatal cancer and genetic defect and lens opacity might arise when they perform interventions such as TACE intensively.

  7. Improved Radiation Dosimetry/Risk Estimates To Facilitate Environmental Management of Plutonium Contaminated Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Bobby, R.; Cheng, Yung-Sung; Zhou, Yue; Tokarskaya, Zoya, B.; Zhuntova, Galina, V.; Osovets, Sergey, V.; Syrchikov, Victor, A.; Pesternikova, Valentina, S.; Belyaeva, Zinaida, D.; Khokhryakov, Valentin, F; Vasilenko, Evgeny, K.; Okladnikova, Nadezhda D.

    2004-12-10

    This report is comprised of a main section and two appendices (A, B) that contain two submitted papers developed with either partial or full support from this Environmental Management Science Program (EMSP) project. The project has focused on applying basic and applied scientific methods to improve both the characterization of plutonium (Pu) aerosol deposition in the human respiratory tract and the understanding of the associated health risks. Our modeling research has ranged from stochastic effects in cells (mutations, neoplastic transformation, apoptosis) to cancer induction in humans. Special attention has been given to cancer risk for low-dose exposure to alpha radiation from inhaled Pu-239. We have also conducted modeling research related to high-dose exposure to alpha radiation from inhaled Pu isotopes and the associated risks for deterministic effects. This research is especially timely given new concerns related to possible nuclear terrorist incidents in the United States and elsewhere. The methodology presented in one of our submitted papers (Appendix A) for characterizing the risk of radiation deterministic effects associated with exposure to large internal (alpha, beta, and gamma) and external (gamma) doses is being used by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to develop guidance for managing radiological incidents (e.g., dirty bomb incidents) and by Sandia National Laboratories to assess the health consequences of the use of dirty bombs by terrorists. Our dosimetry modeling research has focused largely on weapons-grade Pu (WG Pu), which is comprised of several different isotopes that are primarily alpha emitters. We have mainly focused on the insoluble dioxide form. Our mechanistic modeling research has lead to a revised model for low-dose, radiation induced, neoplastic transformation (an early step in cancer induction). The revised model is called NEOTRANS3, and has facilitated evaluating the expected shape of the dose-response relationship

  8. Ionizing radiation and genetic risks. VIII. The concept of mutation component and its use in risk estimation for multifactorial diseases.

    PubMed

    Denniston, C; Chakraborty, R; Sankaranarayanan, K

    1998-08-31

    Multifactorial diseases, which include the common congenital abnormalities (incidence: 6%) and chronic diseases with onset predominantly in adults (population prevalence: 65%), contribute substantially to human morbidity and mortality. Their transmission patterns do not conform to Mendelian expectations. The model most frequently used to explain their inheritance and to estimate risks to relatives is a Multifactorial Threshold Model (MTM) of disease liability. The MTM assumes that: (i) the disease is due to the joint action of a large number of genetic and environmental factors, each of which contributing a small amount of liability, (ii) the distribution of liability in the population is Gaussian and (iii) individuals whose liability exceeds a certain threshold value are affected by the disease. For most of these diseases, the number of genes involved or the environmental factors are not fully known. In the context of radiation exposures of the population, the question of the extent to which induced mutations will cause an increase in the frequencies of these diseases has remained unanswered. In this paper, we address this problem by using a modified version of MTM which incorporates mutation and selection as two additional parameters. The model assumes a finite number of gene loci and threshold of liability (hence, the designation, Finite-Locus Threshold Model or FLTM). The FLTM permits one to examine the relationship between broad-sense heritability of disease liability and mutation component (MC), the responsiveness of the disease to a change in mutation rate. Through the use of a computer program (in which mutation rate, selection, threshold, recombination rate and environmental variance are input parameters and MC and heritability of liability are output estimates), we studied the MC-heritability relationship for (i) a permanent increase in mutation rate (e.g., when the population sustains radiation exposure in every generation) and (ii) a one-time increase

  9. Solid cancer incidence among Chinese medical diagnostic x-ray workers, 1950-1995: Estimation of radiation-related risks.

    PubMed

    Sun, Zhijuan; Inskip, Peter D; Wang, Jixian; Kwon, Deukwoo; Zhao, Yongcheng; Zhang, Liangan; Wang, Qin; Fan, Saijun

    2016-06-15

    The objective of this study was to estimate solid cancer risk attributable to long-term, fractionated occupational exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation. Based on cancer incidence for the period 1950-1995 in a cohort of 27,011 Chinese medical diagnostic X-ray workers and a comparison cohort of 25,782 Chinese physicians who did not use X-ray equipment in their work, we used Poisson regression to fit excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) dose-response models for incidence of all solid cancers combined. Radiation dose reconstruction was based on a previously published method that relied on simulating measurements for multiple X-ray machines, workplaces and working conditions, information about protective measures, including use of lead aprons, and work histories. The resulting model was used to estimate calendar year-specific badge dose calibrated as personal dose equivalent (Sv). To obtain calendar year-specific colon doses (Gy), we applied a standard organ conversion factor. A total of 1,643 cases of solid cancer were identified in 1.45 million person-years of follow-up. In both ERR and EAR models, a statistically significant radiation dose-response relationship was observed for solid cancers as a group. Averaged over both sexes, and using colon dose as the dose metric, the estimated ERR/Gy was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.48, 1.45), and the EAR was 22 per 10(4)PY-Gy (95% CI: 14, 32) at age 50. We obtained estimates of the ERR and EAR of solid cancers per unit dose that are compatible with those derived from other populations chronically exposed to low dose-rate occupational or environmental radiation. PMID:26860236

  10. Ionizing radiation bioeffects and risks

    SciTech Connect

    1992-12-31

    Radiation protection requires an understanding of the prompt and long-term biological effects of radiation and numerical estimates of radiation risks. This chapter presents the characteristics of the ``acute radiation syndrome`` which can occur if an individual is exposed to high doses of radiation, and the effects of high levels of radiation on the skin. It also describes the long term bioeffects of low levels of low LET radiation on individuals and the whole population. These risks are quantified and are put in perspective by comparison to other societal hazards.

  11. Use of risk projection models to estimate mortality and incidence from radiation-induced breast cancer in screening programs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M.; Ferrer, S.; Villaescusa, J. I.; Verdú, G.; Salas, M. D.; Cuevas, M. D.

    2005-02-01

    The authors report on a method to calculate radiological risks, applicable to breast screening programs and other controlled medical exposures to ionizing radiation. In particular, it has been applied to make a risk assessment in the Valencian Breast Cancer Early Detection Program (VBCEDP) in Spain. This method is based on a parametric approach, through Markov processes, of hazard functions for radio-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality, with mean glandular breast dose, attained age and age-at-exposure as covariates. Excess relative risk functions of breast cancer mortality have been obtained from two different case-control studies exposed to ionizing radiation, with different follow-up time: the Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study (1950-1987) and the Life Span Study (1950-1985 and 1950-1990), whereas relative risk functions for incidence have been obtained from the Life Span Study (1958-1993), the Massachusetts tuberculosis cohorts (1926-1985 and 1970-1985), the New York post-partum mastitis patients (1930-1981) and the Swedish benign breast disease cohort (1958-1987). Relative risks from these cohorts have been transported to the target population undergoing screening in the Valencian Community, a region in Spain with about four and a half million inhabitants. The SCREENRISK software has been developed to estimate radiological detriments in breast screening. Some hypotheses corresponding to different screening conditions have been considered in order to estimate the total risk associated with a woman who takes part in all screening rounds. In the case of the VBCEDP, the total radio-induced risk probability for fatal breast cancer is in a range between [5 × 10-6, 6 × 10-4] versus the natural rate of dying from breast cancer in the Valencian Community which is 9.2 × 10-3. The results show that these indicators could be included in quality control tests and could be adequate for making comparisons between several screening programs.

  12. Estimate of the risk of radiation-induced cancers after linear-accelerator-based breast-cancer radiotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, Eui Kwan; Seo, Jungju; Baek, Tae Seong; Chung, Eun Ji; Yoon, Myonggeun; Lee, Hyun-ho

    2013-07-01

    The aim of this study is to assess and compare the excess absolute risks (EARs) of radiation-induced cancers following conformal (3D-CRT), fixed-field intensity-modulated (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc (RapidArc) radiation therapy in patients with breast cancer. 3D-CRT, IMRT and RapidArc were planned for 10 breast cancer patients. The organ-specific EAR for cancer induction was estimated using the organ equivalent dose (OED) based on computed dose volume histograms (DVHs) and the secondary doses measured at various points from the field edge. The average secondary dose per Gy treatment dose from 3D-CRT, measured 10 to 50 cm from the field edge, ranged from 8.27 to 1.04 mGy. The secondary doses per Gy from IMRT and RapidArc, however, ranged between 5.86 and 0.54 mGy, indicating that IMRT and RapidArc are associated with smaller doses of secondary radiation than 3D-CRT. The organ specific EARs for out-of-field organs, such as the thyroid, liver and colon, were higher with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. In contrast, EARs for in-field organs were much lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. The overall estimate of EAR indicated that the radiation-induced cancer risk was 1.8-2.0 times lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. Comparisons of EARs during breast irradiation suggested that the predicted risk of secondary cancers was lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc.

  13. Direct estimates of low-level radiation risks of lung cancer at two NRC-compliant nuclear installations: why are the new risk estimates 20 to 200 times the old official estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Bross, I. D.; Driscoll, D. L.

    1981-01-01

    An official report on the health hazards to nuclear submarine workers at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNS), who were exposed to low-level ionizing radiation, was based on a casual inspection of the data and not on statistical analyses of the dosage-response relationships. When these analyses are done, serious hazards from lung cancer and other causes of death are shown. As a result of the recent studies on nuclear workers, the new risk estimates have been found to be much higher than the official estimates currently used in setting NRC permissible levels. The official BEIR estimates are about one lung cancer death per year per million persons per rem[s]. The PNS data show 189 lung cancer deaths per year per million persons per rem. PMID:7336762

  14. Improved radiation dosimetry/risk estimates to facilitate environmental management of plutonium contaminated sites. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, B.R.

    1998-06-01

    'The objective of this research is to evaluate distributions of possible alpha radiation doses to the lung, bone, and liver and associated health-risk distributions for plutonium (Pu) inhalation-exposure scenarios relevant to environmental management of PuO{sub 2}-contaminated sites. Currently available dosimetry/risk models do not apply to exposure scenarios where, at most, a small number of highly radioactive PuO{sub 2} particles are inhaled (stochastic exposure [SE] paradigm). For the SE paradigm, risk distributions are more relevant than point estimates of risk. The focus of the research is on the SE paradigm and on high specific activity, alpha-emitting (HSA-aE) particles such as 238 PuO{sub 2} . The scientific goal is to develop a stochastic respiratory tract dosimetry/risk computer model for evaluating the desired absorbed dose distributions and associated health-risk distributions, for Department of Energy (DOE) workers and members of the public. This report summarizes results after 1 year of a 2-year project.'

  15. Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori J.; Wang, Minli; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2011-01-01

    The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s

  16. Estimates of radiation dose and health risks to the United States population following the Chernobyl nuclear plant accident

    SciTech Connect

    Broadway, J.A.; Smith, J.M.; Norwood, D.L.; Porter, C.R.

    1988-09-01

    Estimates of both individual and collective doses received by the United States population following the Chernobyl accident have been made by using the data obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Ambient Monitoring System. Radionuclides associated with the debris first were measured in precipitation and surface air particulates at Portland, OR and Olympia, WA on 5 May 1986. Iodine-131 was the most consistently measured nuclide in all media, although several Cs and Ru isotopes also were observed. Strontium and any actinides notably were absent from the samples at the lower level of detection. The highest calculated individual-organ dose due to intake during May and June 1986 was 0.52 mSv to the infant thyroid in the state of Washington. This was predominantly (98%) from the ingestion of milk. The maximum U.S. collective dose equivalent to any organ was calculated to be 3,300 person-Sv to the thyroid. Risk estimates project three excess lung cancer deaths and an additional four deaths due to cancers of thyroid, breast and leukemia in the U.S. population over the next 45 y from exposure during the May-June 1986 interval. The only long-lived radionuclide measured in milk samples following the accident was 137Cs. We estimate 20 excess fatalities from the ingestion of 137Cs in milk during all subsequent years, with six of these due to lung cancer and the majority of the remainder distributed approximately equally among cancers of the thyroid, breast, liver and leukemia. A total of 100 excess fatalities from all dietary components was estimated. Because of the uncertainty of risk estimates from data such as those available for this study, all calculated values carry a range of uncertainty from a minimum of one-half the calculated value to a maximum of two times the calculated value.

  17. Organ-specific radiation-induced cancer risk estimates due to radiotherapy for benign pigmented villonodular synovitis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Tzedakis, Antonis; Lyraraki, Efrossyni; Damilakis, John

    2016-09-01

    Pigmented villonodular synovitis (PVNS) is a benign disease affecting synovial membranes of young and middle-aged adults. The aggressive treatment of this disorder often involves external-beam irradiation. This study was motivated by the lack of data relating to the radiation exposure of healthy tissues and radiotherapy-induced cancer risk. Monte Carlo methodology was employed to simulate a patient’s irradiation for PVNS in the knee and hip joints with a 6 MV photon beam. The average radiation dose received by twenty-two out-of-field critical organs of the human body was calculated. These calculations were combined with the appropriate organ-, age- and gender-specific risk coefficients of the BEIR-VII model to estimate the lifetime probability of cancer development. The risk for carcinogenesis to colon, which was partly included in the treatment fields used for hip irradiation, was determined with a non-linear mechanistic model and differential dose-volume histograms obtained by CT-based 3D radiotherapy planning. Risk assessments were compared with the nominal lifetime intrinsic risk (LIR) values. Knee irradiation to 36 Gy resulted in out-of-field organ doses of 0.2–24.6 mGy. The corresponding range from hip radiotherapy was 1.2–455.1 mGy whereas the organ equivalent dose for the colon was up to 654.9 mGy. The organ-specific cancer risks from knee irradiation for PVNS were found to be inconsequential since they were at least 161.5 times lower than the LIRs irrespective of the patient’s age and gender. The bladder and colon cancer risk from radiotherapy in the hip joint was up to 3.2 and 6.6 times smaller than the LIR, respectively. These cancer risks may slightly elevate the nominal incidence rates and they should not be ignored during the patient’s treatment planning and follow-up. The probabilities for developing any other solid tumor were more than 20 times lower than the LIRs and, therefore, they may be considered as small.

  18. Organ-specific radiation-induced cancer risk estimates due to radiotherapy for benign pigmented villonodular synovitis.

    PubMed

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Tzedakis, Antonis; Lyraraki, Efrossyni; Damilakis, John

    2016-09-01

    Pigmented villonodular synovitis (PVNS) is a benign disease affecting synovial membranes of young and middle-aged adults. The aggressive treatment of this disorder often involves external-beam irradiation. This study was motivated by the lack of data relating to the radiation exposure of healthy tissues and radiotherapy-induced cancer risk. Monte Carlo methodology was employed to simulate a patient's irradiation for PVNS in the knee and hip joints with a 6 MV photon beam. The average radiation dose received by twenty-two out-of-field critical organs of the human body was calculated. These calculations were combined with the appropriate organ-, age- and gender-specific risk coefficients of the BEIR-VII model to estimate the lifetime probability of cancer development. The risk for carcinogenesis to colon, which was partly included in the treatment fields used for hip irradiation, was determined with a non-linear mechanistic model and differential dose-volume histograms obtained by CT-based 3D radiotherapy planning. Risk assessments were compared with the nominal lifetime intrinsic risk (LIR) values. Knee irradiation to 36 Gy resulted in out-of-field organ doses of 0.2-24.6 mGy. The corresponding range from hip radiotherapy was 1.2-455.1 mGy whereas the organ equivalent dose for the colon was up to 654.9 mGy. The organ-specific cancer risks from knee irradiation for PVNS were found to be inconsequential since they were at least 161.5 times lower than the LIRs irrespective of the patient's age and gender. The bladder and colon cancer risk from radiotherapy in the hip joint was up to 3.2 and 6.6 times smaller than the LIR, respectively. These cancer risks may slightly elevate the nominal incidence rates and they should not be ignored during the patient's treatment planning and follow-up. The probabilities for developing any other solid tumor were more than 20 times lower than the LIRs and, therefore, they may be considered as small. PMID:27499236

  19. Cancer risks after radiation exposures

    SciTech Connect

    Voelz, G.L.

    1980-01-01

    A general overview of the effects of ionizing radiation on cancer induction is presented. The relationship between the degree of risk and absorbed dose is examined. Mortality from radiation-induced cancer in the US is estimated and percentages attributable to various sources are given. (ACR)

  20. Geosciences help to protect human health: estimation of the adsorbed radiation doses while flight journeys, as important step to radiation risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chernov, Anatolii; Shabatura, Olexandr

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of the adsorbed radiation dose while flight journeys is a complex problem, which should be solved to get correct evaluation of equivalent effective doses and radiation risk assessment. Direct measurements of the adsorbed dose in the aircrafts during regional flights (3-10 hours) has shown that the radiation in the plane may increase 10-15 times (to 2-4 mSv/h) compared to the values on the surface of the Earth (0.2-0.5 mSv/h). Results of instrumental research confirmed by the other investigations. It is a fact that adsorbed doses per year while flight journeys are less than doses from medical tests. However, while flight journeys passengers get the same doses as nuclear power plant staff, people in zones of natural radiation anomalies and so should be evaluated. According to the authors' research, flight journeys are safe enough, when solar activity is normal and if we fly under altitude of 18 km (as usual, while intercontinental flights). Most of people travel by plane not so often, but if flight is lasting in dangerous periods of solar activity (powerful solar winds and magnetic field storms), passengers and flight crew can adsorb great amount of radiation doses. People, who spend more than 500 hours in flight journeys (pilots, business oriented persons', government representatives, etc.) get amount of radiation, which can negatively influence on health and provoke diseases, such as cancer. Authors consider that problem actual and researches are still going on. It is revealed, that radiation can be calculated, using special equations. Great part of radiation depends on very variable outer-space component and less variable solar. Accurate calculations of doses will be possible, when we will take into account all features of radiation distribution (time, season of year and exact time of the day, duration of flight), technical features of aircraft and logistics of flight (altitude, latitude). Results of first attempts of radiation doses modelling confirmed

  1. PROGRESS REPORT. IMPROVED RADIATION DOSIMETRY/RISK ESTIMATES TO FACILITATE ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT OF PLUTONIUM CONTAMINATED SITES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The main objective of this project is to improve capabilities for evaluating health risks to humans associated with inhaling plutonium (Pu). Two key DOE issues are being addressed: (1) the need to improve capabilities for evaluating plutonium dioxide (PuO2)-associated health risk...

  2. Effect of induction chemotherapy on estimated risk of radiation pneumonitis in bulky non–small cell lung cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Amin, Neha P.; Miften, Moyed; Thornton, Dale; Ryan, Nicole; Kavanagh, Brian; Gaspar, Laurie E

    2013-10-01

    Patients with bulky non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be at a high risk for radiation pneumonitis (RP) if treated with up-front concurrent chemoradiation. There is limited information about the effect of induction chemotherapy on the volume of normal lung subsequently irradiated. This study aims to estimate the reduction in risk of RP in patients with NSCLC after receiving induction chemotherapy. Between 2004 and 2009, 25 patients with Stage IV NSCLC were treated with chemotherapy alone (no surgery or radiation therapy [RT]) and had computed tomography (CT) scans before and after 2 cycles of chemotherapy. Simulated RT plans were created for the prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans so as to deliver 60 Gy to the thoracic disease in patients who had either a >20% volumetric increase or decrease in gross tumor volume (GTV) from chemotherapy. The prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans were analyzed to compare the percentage of lung volume receiving≥20 Gy (V20), mean lung dose (MLD), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Eight patients (32%) had a GTV reduction >20%, 2 (8%) had GTV increase >20%, and 15 (60%) had stable GTV. In the 8 responders, there was an absolute median GTV decrease of 88.1 cc (7.3 to 351.6 cc) or a 48% (20% to 62%) relative reduction in tumor burden. One had >20% tumor progression during chemotherapy, yet had an improvement in dosimetric parameters postchemotherapy. Among these 9 patients, the median decrease in V20, MLD, and NTCP was 2.6% (p<0.01), 2.1 Gy (p<0.01), and 5.6% (p<0.01), respectively. Less than one-third of patients with NSCLC obtain >20% volumetric tumor reduction from chemotherapy alone. Even with that amount of volumetric reduction, the 5% reduced risk of RP was only modest and did not convert previously ineligible patients to safely receive definitive thoracic RT.

  3. Radiation Leukemogenesis: Applying Basic Science of Epidemiological Estimates of Low Dose Risks and Dose-Rate Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Hoel, D. G.

    1998-11-01

    The next stage of work has been to examine more closely the A-bomb leukemia data which provides the underpinnings of the risk estimation of CML in the above mentioned manuscript. The paper by Hoel and Li (Health Physics 75:241-50) shows how the linear-quadratic model has basic non-linearities at the low dose region for the leukemias including CML. Pierce et. al., (Radiation Research 123:275-84) have developed distributions for the uncertainty in the estimated exposures of the A-bomb cohort. Kellerer, et. al., (Radiation and Environmental Biophysics 36:73-83) has further considered possible errors in the estimated neutron values and with changing RBE values with dose and has hypothesized that the tumor response due to gamma may not be linear. We have incorporated his neutron model and have constricted new A-bomb doses based on his model adjustments. The Hoel and Li dose response analysis has also been applied using the Kellerer neutron dose adjustments for the leukemias. Finally, both Pierce's dose uncertainties and Kellerer neutron adjustments are combined as well as the varying RBE with dose as suggested by Rossi and Zaider and used for leukemia dose-response analysis. First the results of Hoel and Li showing a significantly improved fit of the linear-quadratic dose response by the inclusion of a threshold (i.e. low-dose nonlinearity) persisted. This work has been complete for both solid tumor as well as leukemia for both mortality as well as incidence data. The results are given in the manuscript described below which has been submitted to Health Physics.

  4. ANNUAL REPORT. IMPROVED RADIATION DOSIMETRY/RISK ESTIMATES TO FACILITATE ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT OF PLUTONIUM CONTAMINATED SITES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Our phase-II research relates to evaluating health risks associated with inhaled plutonium (Pu). Our current research objectives are as follows: (1) to extend our stochastic model for deposition of plutonium in the respiratory tract to include additional key variability and uncer...

  5. Estimation of radiation risk in presence of classical additive and Berkson multiplicative errors in exposure doses.

    PubMed

    Masiuk, S V; Shklyar, S V; Kukush, A G; Carroll, R J; Kovgan, L N; Likhtarov, I A

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, the influence of measurement errors in exposure doses in a regression model with binary response is studied. Recently, it has been recognized that uncertainty in exposure dose is characterized by errors of two types: classical additive errors and Berkson multiplicative errors. The combination of classical additive and Berkson multiplicative errors has not been considered in the literature previously. In a simulation study based on data from radio-epidemiological research of thyroid cancer in Ukraine caused by the Chornobyl accident, it is shown that ignoring measurement errors in doses leads to overestimation of background prevalence and underestimation of excess relative risk. In the work, several methods to reduce these biases are proposed. They are new regression calibration, an additive version of efficient SIMEX, and novel corrected score methods. PMID:26795191

  6. Ionizing Radiation and Its Risks

    PubMed Central

    Goldman, Marvin

    1982-01-01

    Penetrating ionizing radiation fairly uniformly puts all exposed molecules and cells at approximately equal risk for deleterious consequences. Thus, the original deposition of radiation energy (that is, the dose) is unaltered by metabolic characteristics of cells and tissue, unlike the situation for chemical agents. Intensely ionizing radiations, such as neutrons and alpha particles, are up to ten times more damaging than sparsely ionizing sources such as x-rays or gamma rays for equivalent doses. Furthermore, repair in cells and tissues can ameliorate the consequences of radiation doses delivered at lower rates by up to a factor of ten compared with comparable doses acutely delivered, especially for somatic (carcinogenic) and genetic effects from x- and gamma-irradiation exposure. Studies on irradiated laboratory animals or on people following occupational, medical or accidental exposures point to an average lifetime fatal cancer risk of about 1 × 10-4 per rem of dose (100 per 106 person-rem). Leukemia and lung, breast and thyroid cancer seem more likely than other types of cancer to be produced by radiation. Radiation exposures from natural sources (cosmic rays and terrestrial radioactivity) of about 0.1 rem per year yield a lifetime cancer risk about 0.1 percent of the normally occurring 20 percent risk of cancer death. An increase of about 1 percent per rem in fatal cancer risk, or 200 rem to double the “background” risk rate, is compared with an estimate of about 100 rem to double the genetic risk. Newer data suggest that the risks for low-level radiation are lower than risks estimated from data from high exposures and that the present 5 rem per year limit for workers is adequate. PMID:6761969

  7. Multiparametric Determination of Radiation Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, Robert C.

    2003-01-01

    Predicting risk of human cancer following exposure to ionizing space radiation is challenging in part because of uncertainties of low-dose distribution amongst cells, of unknown potentially synergistic effects of microgravity upon cellular protein-expression, and of processing dose-related damage within cells to produce rare and late-appearing malignant transformation, degrade the confidence of cancer risk-estimates. The NASA- specific responsibility to estimate the risks of radiogenic cancer in a limited number of astronauts is not amenable to epidemiologic study, thereby increasing this challenge. Developing adequately sensitive cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report 1) the quantity of absorbed close after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the risk of developing malignant transformation by the cells absorbing that dose could be useful for resolving these challenges. Use of a multiparametric cellular biodosimeter is suggested using analyses of gene-expression and protein-expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to radiation-induced damage are obtained and analyzed for expression-profiles correlated with established end points and molecular markers predictive for cancer-risk. Analytical techniques of genomics and proteomics may be used to establish dose-dependency of multiple gene- and protein- expressions resulting from radiation-induced cellular damage. Furthermore, gene- and protein-expression from cells in microgravity are known to be altered relative to cells grown on the ground at 1g. Therefore, hypotheses are proposed that 1) macromolecular expression caused by radiation-induced damage in cells in microgravity may be different than on the ground, and 2) different patterns of macromolecular expression in microgravity may alter human radiogenic cancer risk relative to radiation exposure on Earth. A new paradigm is accordingly suggested as a national database wherein genomic and

  8. Estimates of radiation doses in tissue and organs and risk of excess cancer in the single-course radiotherapy patients treated for ankylosing spondylitis in England and Wales

    SciTech Connect

    Fabrikant, J.I.; Lyman, J.T.

    1982-02-01

    The estimates of absorbed doses of x rays and excess risk of cancer in bone marrow and heavily irradiated sites are extremely crude and are based on very limited data and on a number of assumptions. Some of these assumptions may later prove to be incorrect, but it is probable that they are correct to within a factor of 2. The excess cancer risk estimates calculated compare well with the most reliable epidemiological surveys thus far studied. This is particularly important for cancers of heavily irradiated sites with long latent periods. The mean followup period for the patients was 16.2 y, and an increase in cancers of heavily irradiated sites may appear in these patients in the 1970s in tissues and organs with long latent periods for the induction of cancer. The accuracy of these estimates is severely limited by the inadequacy of information on doses absorbed by the tissues at risk in the irradiated patients. The information on absorbed dose is essential for an accurate assessment of dose-cancer incidence analysis. Furthermore, in this valuable series of irradiated patients, the information on radiation dosimetry on the radiotherapy charts is central to any reliable determination of somatic risks of radiation with regard to carcinogenesis in man. The work necessary to obtain these data is under way; only when they are available can more precise estimates of risk of cancer induction by radiation in man be obtained.

  9. Injury Risk Estimation Expertise

    PubMed Central

    Petushek, Erich J.; Ward, Paul; Cokely, Edward T.; Myer, Gregory D.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Simple observational assessment of movement is a potentially low-cost method for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury screening and prevention. Although many individuals utilize some form of observational assessment of movement, there are currently no substantial data on group skill differences in observational screening of ACL injury risk. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to compare various groups’ abilities to visually assess ACL injury risk as well as the associated strategies and ACL knowledge levels. The hypothesis was that sports medicine professionals would perform better than coaches and exercise science academics/students and that these subgroups would all perform better than parents and other general population members. Study Design: Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 428 individuals, including physicians, physical therapists, athletic trainers, strength and conditioning coaches, exercise science researchers/students, athletes, parents, and members of the general public participated in the study. Participants completed the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz (ACL-IQ) and answered questions related to assessment strategy and ACL knowledge. Results: Strength and conditioning coaches, athletic trainers, physical therapists, and exercise science students exhibited consistently superior ACL injury risk estimation ability (+2 SD) as compared with sport coaches, parents of athletes, and members of the general public. The performance of a substantial number of individuals in the exercise sciences/sports medicines (approximately 40%) was similar to or exceeded clinical instrument-based biomechanical assessment methods (eg, ACL nomogram). Parents, sport coaches, and the general public had lower ACL-IQ, likely due to their lower ACL knowledge and to rating the importance of knee/thigh motion lower and weight and jump height higher. Conclusion: Substantial cross-professional/group differences in visual ACL

  10. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  11. Uranium mill tailings and risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Marks, S.

    1984-04-01

    Work done in estimating projected health effects for persons exposed to mill tailings at vicinity properties is described. The effect of the reassessment of exposures at Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the risk estimates for gamma radiation is discussed. A presentation of current results in the epidemiological study of Hanford workers is included. 2 references. (ACR)

  12. Ultraviolet Radiation: Human Exposure and Health Risks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tenkate, Thomas D.

    1998-01-01

    Provides an overview of human exposure to ultraviolet radiation and associated health effects as well as risk estimates for acute and chronic conditions resulting from such exposure. Demonstrates substantial reductions in health risk that can be achieved through preventive actions. Also includes a risk assessment model for skin cancer. Contains 36…

  13. Radiation dose estimates for radiopharmaceuticals

    SciTech Connect

    Stabin, M.G.; Stubbs, J.B.; Toohey, R.E.

    1996-04-01

    Tables of radiation dose estimates based on the Cristy-Eckerman adult male phantom are provided for a number of radiopharmaceuticals commonly used in nuclear medicine. Radiation dose estimates are listed for all major source organs, and several other organs of interest. The dose estimates were calculated using the MIRD Technique as implemented in the MIRDOSE3 computer code, developed by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Radiation Internal Dose Information Center. In this code, residence times for source organs are used with decay data from the MIRD Radionuclide Data and Decay Schemes to produce estimates of radiation dose to organs of standardized phantoms representing individuals of different ages. The adult male phantom of the Cristy-Eckerman phantom series is different from the MIRD 5, or Reference Man phantom in several aspects, the most important of which is the difference in the masses and absorbed fractions for the active (red) marrow. The absorbed fractions for flow energy photons striking the marrow are also different. Other minor differences exist, but are not likely to significantly affect dose estimates calculated with the two phantoms. Assumptions which support each of the dose estimates appears at the bottom of the table of estimates for a given radiopharmaceutical. In most cases, the model kinetics or organ residence times are explicitly given. The results presented here can easily be extended to include other radiopharmaceuticals or phantoms.

  14. Acute radiation risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnova, Olga

    Biologically motivated mathematical models, which describe the dynamics of the major hematopoietic lineages (the thrombocytopoietic, lymphocytopoietic, granulocytopoietic, and erythropoietic systems) in acutely/chronically irradiated humans are developed. These models are implemented as systems of nonlinear differential equations, which variables and constant parameters have clear biological meaning. It is shown that the developed models are capable of reproducing clinical data on the dynamics of these systems in humans exposed to acute radiation in the result of incidents and accidents, as well as in humans exposed to low-level chronic radiation. Moreover, the averaged value of the "lethal" dose rates of chronic irradiation evaluated within models of these four major hematopoietic lineages coincides with the real minimal dose rate of lethal chronic irradiation. The demonstrated ability of the models of the human thrombocytopoietic, lymphocytopoietic, granulocytopoietic, and erythropoietic systems to predict the dynamical response of these systems to acute/chronic irradiation in wide ranges of doses and dose rates implies that these mathematical models form an universal tool for the investigation and prediction of the dynamics of the major human hematopoietic lineages for a vast pattern of irradiation scenarios. In particular, these models could be applied for the radiation risk assessment for health of astronauts exposed to space radiation during long-term space missions, such as voyages to Mars or Lunar colonies, as well as for health of people exposed to acute/chronic irradiation due to environmental radiological events.

  15. Real Time Radiation Exposure And Health Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hu, Shaowen; Barzilla, Janet E.; Semones, Edward J.

    2015-01-01

    Radiation from solar particle events (SPEs) poses a serious threat to future manned missions outside of low Earth orbit (LEO). Accurate characterization of the radiation environment in the inner heliosphere and timely monitoring the health risks to crew are essential steps to ensure the safety of future Mars missions. In this project we plan to develop an approach that can use the particle data from multiple satellites and perform near real-time simulations of radiation exposure and health risks for various exposure scenarios. Time-course profiles of dose rates will be calculated with HZETRN and PDOSE from the energy spectrum and compositions of the particles archived from satellites, and will be validated from recent radiation exposure measurements in space. Real-time estimation of radiation risks will be investigated using ARRBOD. This cross discipline integrated approach can improve risk mitigation by providing critical information for risk assessment and medical guidance to crew during SPEs.

  16. Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part I. Development and validation of a Monte Carlo program

    SciTech Connect

    Li Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P.

    2011-01-15

    Purpose: Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dose-reporting system that provides dose and risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. As the first step toward patient-specific dose and risk estimation, this article aimed to develop a method for accurately assessing radiation dose from CT examinations. Methods: A Monte Carlo program was developed to model a CT system (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare). The geometry of the system, the energy spectra of the x-ray source, the three-dimensional geometry of the bowtie filters, and the trajectories of source motions during axial and helical scans were explicitly modeled. To validate the accuracy of the program, a cylindrical phantom was built to enable dose measurements at seven different radial distances from its central axis. Simulated radial dose distributions in the cylindrical phantom were validated against ion chamber measurements for single axial scans at all combinations of tube potential and bowtie filter settings. The accuracy of the program was further validated using two anthropomorphic phantoms (a pediatric one-year-old phantom and an adult female phantom). Computer models of the two phantoms were created based on their CT data and were voxelized for input into the Monte Carlo program. Simulated dose at various organ locations was compared against measurements made with thermoluminescent dosimetry chips for both single axial and helical scans. Results: For the cylindrical phantom, simulations differed from measurements by -4.8% to 2.2%. For the two anthropomorphic phantoms, the discrepancies between simulations and measurements ranged between (-8.1%, 8.1%) and (-17.2%, 13.0%) for the single axial scans and the helical scans, respectively. Conclusions: The authors developed an accurate Monte Carlo program for assessing radiation dose from CT examinations. When combined with computer models of actual patients, the program can provide accurate dose

  17. Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part I. Development and validation of a Monte Carlo program

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dose-reporting system that provides dose and risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. As the first step toward patient-specific dose and risk estimation, this article aimed to develop a method for accurately assessing radiation dose from CT examinations. Methods: A Monte Carlo program was developed to model a CT system (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare). The geometry of the system, the energy spectra of the x-ray source, the three-dimensional geometry of the bowtie filters, and the trajectories of source motions during axial and helical scans were explicitly modeled. To validate the accuracy of the program, a cylindrical phantom was built to enable dose measurements at seven different radial distances from its central axis. Simulated radial dose distributions in the cylindrical phantom were validated against ion chamber measurements for single axial scans at all combinations of tube potential and bowtie filter settings. The accuracy of the program was further validated using two anthropomorphic phantoms (a pediatric one-year-old phantom and an adult female phantom). Computer models of the two phantoms were created based on their CT data and were voxelized for input into the Monte Carlo program. Simulated dose at various organ locations was compared against measurements made with thermoluminescent dosimetry chips for both single axial and helical scans. Results: For the cylindrical phantom, simulations differed from measurements by −4.8% to 2.2%. For the two anthropomorphic phantoms, the discrepancies between simulations and measurements ranged between (−8.1%, 8.1%) and (−17.2%, 13.0%) for the single axial scans and the helical scans, respectively. Conclusions: The authors developed an accurate Monte Carlo program for assessing radiation dose from CT examinations. When combined with computer models of actual patients, the program can provide accurate dose

  18. Space radiation and cardiovascular disease risk.

    PubMed

    Boerma, Marjan; Nelson, Gregory A; Sridharan, Vijayalakshmi; Mao, Xiao-Wen; Koturbash, Igor; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

    2015-12-26

    Future long-distance space missions will be associated with significant exposures to ionizing radiation, and the health risks of these radiation exposures during manned missions need to be assessed. Recent Earth-based epidemiological studies in survivors of atomic bombs and after occupational and medical low dose radiation exposures have indicated that the cardiovascular system may be more sensitive to ionizing radiation than was previously thought. This has raised the concern of a cardiovascular disease risk from exposure to space radiation during long-distance space travel. Ground-based studies with animal and cell culture models play an important role in estimating health risks from space radiation exposure. Charged particle space radiation has dense ionization characteristics and may induce unique biological responses, appropriate simulation of the space radiation environment and careful consideration of the choice of the experimental model are critical. Recent studies have addressed cardiovascular effects of space radiation using such models and provided first results that aid in estimating cardiovascular disease risk, and several other studies are ongoing. Moreover, astronauts could potentially be administered pharmacological countermeasures against adverse effects of space radiation, and research is focused on the development of such compounds. Because the cardiovascular response to space radiation has not yet been clearly defined, the identification of potential pharmacological countermeasures against cardiovascular effects is still in its infancy. PMID:26730293

  19. Space radiation and cardiovascular disease risk

    PubMed Central

    Boerma, Marjan; Nelson, Gregory A; Sridharan, Vijayalakshmi; Mao, Xiao-Wen; Koturbash, Igor; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Future long-distance space missions will be associated with significant exposures to ionizing radiation, and the health risks of these radiation exposures during manned missions need to be assessed. Recent Earth-based epidemiological studies in survivors of atomic bombs and after occupational and medical low dose radiation exposures have indicated that the cardiovascular system may be more sensitive to ionizing radiation than was previously thought. This has raised the concern of a cardiovascular disease risk from exposure to space radiation during long-distance space travel. Ground-based studies with animal and cell culture models play an important role in estimating health risks from space radiation exposure. Charged particle space radiation has dense ionization characteristics and may induce unique biological responses, appropriate simulation of the space radiation environment and careful consideration of the choice of the experimental model are critical. Recent studies have addressed cardiovascular effects of space radiation using such models and provided first results that aid in estimating cardiovascular disease risk, and several other studies are ongoing. Moreover, astronauts could potentially be administered pharmacological countermeasures against adverse effects of space radiation, and research is focused on the development of such compounds. Because the cardiovascular response to space radiation has not yet been clearly defined, the identification of potential pharmacological countermeasures against cardiovascular effects is still in its infancy. PMID:26730293

  20. Estimated Radiation Dosage on Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    This global map of Mars shows the estimated radiation dosages from cosmic rays reaching the surface, a serious health concern for any future human exploration of the planet.

    The estimates are based on cosmic-radiation measurements by the Mars radiation environment experiment, an instrument on NASA's Mars 2000 Odyssey spacecraft, plus information about Mars' surface elevations from the laser altimeter instrument on NASA's Mars Global Surveyor. The areas of Mars expected to have the lowest levels of cosmic radiation are where the elevation is lowest, because those areas have more atmosphere above them to block out some of the radiation. Earth's thick atmosphere shields us from most cosmic radiation, but Mars has a much thinner atmosphere than we have on Earth.

    The colors in the map refer to the estimated annual dose equivalent in rems, a unit of radiation dose. The range is generally from 10 rems(color-coded dark blue) to 20 rems (color coded dark red). Radiation exposure for astronauts on the International Space Station in Earth orbit is typically equivalent to an annualized rate of 20 to 40 rems.

    NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey and Mars Global Surveyor missions for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington D.C. The Mars radiation environment experiment was developed by NASA's Johnson Space Center, Houston. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for Odyssey, and developed and built the orbiter. Mission operations are conducted jointly from Lockheed Martin and from JPL, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

  1. Risk Factors: Radiation

    Cancer.gov

    Radiation of certain wavelengths, called ionizing radiation, has enough energy to damage DNA and cause cancer. Ionizing radiation includes radon, x-rays, gamma rays, and other forms of high-energy radiation.

  2. Measurement errors in the assessment of exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation and its impact on risk estimates in epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Dadvand, Payam; Basagaña, Xavier; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Diffey, Brian; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark

    2011-07-01

    To date, many studies addressing long-term effects of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure on human health have relied on a range of surrogates such as the latitude of the city of residence, ambient UVR levels, or time spent outdoors to estimate personal UVR exposure. This study aimed to differentiate the contributions of personal behaviour and ambient UVR levels on facial UVR exposure and to evaluate the impact of using UVR exposure surrogates on detecting exposure-outcome associations. Data on time-activity, holiday behaviour, and ambient UVR levels were obtained for adult (aged 25-55 years old) indoor workers in six European cities: Athens (37°N), Grenoble (45°N), Milan (45°N), Prague (50°N), Oxford (52°N), and Helsinki (60°N). Annual UVR facial exposure levels were simulated for 10,000 subjects for each city, using a behavioural UVR exposure model. Within-city variations of facial UVR exposure were three times larger than the variation between cities, mainly because of time-activity patterns. In univariate models, ambient UVR levels, latitude and time spent outdoors, each accounted for less than one fourth of the variation in facial exposure levels. Use of these surrogates to assess long-term exposure to UVR resulted in requiring more than four times more participants to achieve similar statistical power to the study that applied simulated facial exposure. Our results emphasise the importance of integrating both personal behaviour and ambient UVR levels/latitude in exposure assessment methodologies. PMID:21465050

  3. The risks of radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miettenen, Jorma K.

    1988-01-01

    The risks of radioactivity are a really complicated matter, yet they are much better known than are the risks relating to thousands of chemical poisons that occur in our environment. The greatest mistakes are probably made in the definition of safety margins. Except for the bombs dropped in Japan and one other case in the Marshall Islands, there has always—luckily—been a wide safety margin between fallout radiation and doses dangerous to health; the margin has actually been about 1000-fold. The Chernobyl dose of 0.5 mGy/year that we received is only 1/1000 of the acute dose of 0.5 Gy which would cause a slight and nonpermanent change in the blood picture. There is no such safety margin with respect to many air pollutants. The safety standards for sulfuric or nitric oxides, ozone and so on, have been set only just below the level that already causes a health hazard, and these standards are exceeded once in a while. Otherwise, traffic would have to be forbidden and many industrial plants, especially power stations using coal, would have to stop working whenever a low-temperature inversion occurred. Environmental radioactivity does not represent a likely health risk in Finland unless a nuclear war breaks out. Air pollutants, on the contrary, are a real and almost daily health risk that should be carefully considered when decisions about our energy production are being made. In spite of what happened at Chernobyl, global consumption of nuclear power will double by the year 2000, since there are about 140 nuclear power plants presently under construction. It is not likely that another catastrophe like Chernobyl will happen, yet nuclear plant accidents are of course possible, even if their likelihood is diminished by improving reactor safety and even if any eventual damage could be expected to be smaller. If a reactor is hooded by a containment structure, no significant release of radioactive materials should be possible even in case of an accident. However, we must

  4. Calculating Risk: Radiation and Chernobyl.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gale, Robert Peter

    1987-01-01

    Considers who is at risk in a disaster such as Chernobyl. Assesses the difficulty in translating information regarding radiation to the public and in determining the acceptability of technological risks. (NKA)

  5. Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Reed, Duncan W

    2002-07-15

    Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin? PMID:12804255

  6. [Quantification of radiation-induced genetic risk].

    PubMed

    Ehling, U H

    1987-05-01

    Associated with technical advances of our civilization is a radiation- and chemically-induced increase in the germ cell mutation rate in man. This would result in an increase in the frequency of genetic diseases and would be detrimental to future generations. It is the duty of our generation to keep this risk as low as possible. The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk of human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage does not. The different methods to estimate the radiation-induced genetic risk will be discussed. The accuracy of the predicted results will be evaluated by a comparison with the observed incidence of dominant mutations in offspring born to radiation exposed survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings. These methods will be used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl. For the exposure dose we used the upper limits of the mean effective life time equivalent dose from the fallout values in the Munich region. According to the direct method for the risk estimation we will expect for each 100 to 500 spontaneous dominant mutations one radiation-induced mutation in the first generation. With the indirect method we estimate a ratio of 100 dominant spontaneous mutations to one radiation-induced dominant mutation. The possibilities and the limitations of the different methods to estimate the genetic risk will be discussed. The discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized. PMID:3589954

  7. Mechanistic and quantitative studies of bystander response in 3D tissues for low-dose radiation risk estimations

    SciTech Connect

    Amundson, Sally A.

    2013-06-12

    We have used the MatTek 3-dimensional human skin model to study the gene expression response of a 3D model to low and high dose low LET radiation, and to study the radiation bystander effect as a function of distance from the site of irradiation with either alpha particles or low LET protons. We have found response pathways that appear to be specific for low dose exposures, that could not have been predicted from high dose studies. We also report the time and distance dependent expression of a large number of genes in bystander tissue. the bystander response in 3D tissues showed many similarities to that described previously in 2D cultured cells, but also showed some differences.

  8. Radiation standards and public perceptions of risk

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, H.T. Jr.

    1989-01-01

    The relation between radiation standards and a perceived safe level of radiation exposure indicates that regulators must carefully describe the underlying basis for existing and new radiation standards so that public perception will not be inadvertently influenced due to changes in standard-setting philosophy. Regulators also need to qualify estimates of risks from low-level ionizing radiation (doses <5 rem/yr) to indicate that the estimated effects are potential effects only and that there is no evidence such effects actually have been observed at these doses and dose rates. However, proponents of the application of ionizing radiation and nuclear energy must also recognize that there is no concrete evidence that such effects do not occur at these doses and that, given this uncertainty as to whether the effects occur at all, it is prudent for public health protection purposes to assume that such effects could occur.

  9. Radiation: Doses, Effects, Risks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lean, Geoffrey, Ed.

    Few scientific issues arouse as much public controversy as the effects of radiation. This booklet is an attempt to summarize what is known about radiation and provide a basis for further discussion and debate. The first four chapters of the booklet are based on the most recent reports to the United Nations' General Assembly by the United Nations…

  10. Estimating potential evapotranspiration with improved radiation estimation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is of great importance to estimation of surface energy budget and water balance calculation. The accurate estimation of PET will facilitate efficient irrigation scheduling, drainage design, and other agricultural and meteorological applications. However, accuracy o...

  11. Radiation risks for patients having X rays

    SciTech Connect

    Hale, J.; Thomas, J.W.

    1985-12-01

    In addition to radiation from naturally occurring radioactive materials and cosmic rays, individuals in developed countries receive radiation doses to bone marrow and gonads from the medical diagnostic use of X rays. A brief discussion of radiation epidemiology shows that deleterious effects are low even when doses are high. The concept of acceptable risk is introduced to help evaluate the small, but still existent, risks of radiation dose. Examples of bone marrow and gonadal doses for representative X-ray examinations are presented along with the current best estimates, per unit of X-ray dose, of the induction of leukemia or of genetic harm. The risk to the patient from an examination can then be compared with the normal risk of mortality from leukemia or of the occurrence of genetic defects. The risk increase is found to be very low. The risks to unborn children from radiographic examinations are also discussed. The benefit to the patient from information obtained from the examination must be balanced against the small risks.

  12. [Dose loads on and radiation risk values for cosmonauts on a mission to Mars estimated from actual Martian vehicle engineering development].

    PubMed

    Shafirkin, A V; Kolomenskiĭ, A V; Mitrikas, V G; Petrov, V M

    2010-01-01

    The current design philosophy of a Mars orbiting vehicle, takeoff and landing systems and the transport return vehicle was taken into consideration for calculating the equivalent doses imparted to cosmonaut's organs and tissues by galactic cosmic rays, solar rays and the Earth's radiation belts, values of the total radiation risk over the lifespan following the mission and over the whole career period, and possible shortening of life expectancy. There are a number of uncertainties that should be evaluated, and radiation limits specified before setting off to Mars. PMID:20803991

  13. Secondary Malignancy Risk Following Proton Radiation Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Eaton, Bree R.; MacDonald, Shannon M.; Yock, Torunn I.; Tarbell, Nancy J.

    2015-01-01

    Radiation-induced secondary malignancies are a significant, yet uncommon cause of morbidity and mortality among cancer survivors. Secondary malignancy risk is dependent upon multiple factors including patient age, the biological and genetic predisposition of the individual, the volume and location of tissue irradiated, and the dose of radiation received. Proton therapy (PRT) is an advanced particle therapy with unique dosimetric properties resulting in reduced entrance dose and minimal to no exit dose when compared with standard photon radiation therapy. Multiple dosimetric studies in varying cancer subtypes have demonstrated that PRT enables the delivery of adequate target volume coverage with reduced integral dose delivered to surrounding tissues, and modeling studies taking into account dosimetry and radiation cell biology have estimated a significantly reduced risk of radiation-induced secondary malignancy with PRT. Clinical data are emerging supporting the lower incidence of secondary malignancies after PRT compared with historical photon data, though longer follow-up in proton treated cohorts is awaited. This article reviews the current dosimetric and clinical literature evaluating the incidence of and risk factors associated with radiation-induced secondary malignancy following PRT. PMID:26636040

  14. Ionizing Radiation Environments and Exposure Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, M. H. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Space radiation environments for historically large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are simulated to characterize exposures to radio-sensitive organs for missions to low-Earth orbit (LEO), moon, near-Earth asteroid, and Mars. Primary and secondary particles for SPE and GCR are transported through the respective atmospheres of Earth or Mars, space vehicle, and astronaut's body tissues using NASA's HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code. Space radiation protection methods, which are derived largely from ground-based methods recommended by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) or International Commission on Radiological Protections (ICRP), are built on the principles of risk justification, limitation, and ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable). However, because of the large uncertainties in high charge and energy (HZE) particle radiobiology and the small population of space crews, NASA develops distinct methods to implement a space radiation protection program. For the fatal cancer risks, which have been considered the dominant risk for GCR, the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model has been developed from recommendations by NCRP; and undergone external review by the National Research Council (NRC), NCRP, and through peer-review publications. The NSCR model uses GCR environmental models, particle transport codes describing the GCR modification by atomic and nuclear interactions in atmospheric shielding coupled with spacecraft and tissue shielding, and NASA-defined quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates for HZE particles. By implementing the NSCR model, the exposure risks from various heliospheric conditions are assessed for the radiation environments for various-class mission types to understand architectures and strategies of human exploration missions and ultimately to contribute to the optimization of radiation safety and well-being of space crewmembers participating in long-term space missions.

  15. Evidence Report: Risk of Radiation Carcinogenesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, Janice; Carnell, Lisa; Blattnig, Steve; Chappell, Lori; Kerry, George; Lumpkins, Sarah; Simonsen, Lisa; Slaba, Tony; Werneth, Charles

    2016-01-01

    As noted by Durante and Cucinotta (2008), cancer risk caused by exposure to space radiation is now generally considered a main hindrance to interplanetary travel for the following reasons: large uncertainties are associated with the projected cancer risk estimates; no simple and effective countermeasures are available, and significant uncertainties prevent scientists from determining the effectiveness of countermeasures. Optimizing operational parameters such as the length of space missions, crew selection for age and sex, or applying mitigation measures such as radiation shielding or use of biological countermeasures can be used to reduce risk, but these procedures have inherent limitations and are clouded by uncertainties. Space radiation is comprised of high energy protons, neutrons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) nuclei (HZE). The ionization patterns and resulting biological insults of these particles in molecules, cells, and tissues are distinct from typical terrestrial radiation, which is largely X-rays and gamma-rays, and generally characterized as low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are comprised mostly of highly energetic protons with a small component of high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. Prominent HZE nuclei include He, C, O, Ne, Mg, Si, and Fe. GCR ions have median energies near 1 GeV/n, and energies as high as 10 GeV/n make important contributions to the total exposure. Ionizing radiation is a well known carcinogen on Earth (BEIR 2006). The risks of cancer from X-rays and gamma-rays have been established at doses above 50 mSv (5 rem), although there are important uncertainties and on-going scientific debate about cancer risk at lower doses and at low dose rates (<50 mSv/h). The relationship between the early biological effects of HZE nuclei and the probability of cancer in humans is poorly understood, and it is this missing knowledge that leads to significant uncertainties in projecting cancer risks during space

  16. Radiation: What determines the risk?

    SciTech Connect

    Mitchel, R.E.J.; Trivedi, A. ||

    1993-12-31

    Radiation, like other DNA damaging agents, can initiate a series of cellular events responsible for cancer development. However, in any individual the risk of cancer arising from a carcinogen exposure is variable, and is not a fixed value dependent only on the dose of carcinogen. This variability in overall risk arises from variability in the probabilities of the intermediate steps of the multistep processes of carcinogenesis. Using cellular and animal model systems, we have shown that deliberate manipulation of these biological processes is possible, and that the risk of cancer from a fixed exposure to a carcinogen can be made to increase or decrease. We have also shown that such changes in risk can result from intervention at times long before or after that carcinogen exposure. These results indicate that the principles of radiation protection can be expanded. We suggest that in addition to offering protection against exposure, radiation protection can include the development of strategies for protection against the ultimate biological consequences of an exposure. Improved understanding of the biology of radiation responses may lead to techniques for deliberate intervention that could be particularly useful in long duration manned space flight.

  17. Uncertainty of Calculated Risk Estimates for Secondary Malignancies After Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Kry, Stephen F. . E-mail: sfkry@mdanderson.org; Followill, David; White, R. Allen; Stovall, Marilyn; Kuban, Deborah A.; Salehpour, Mohammad

    2007-07-15

    Purpose: The significance of risk estimates for fatal secondary malignancies caused by out-of-field radiation exposure remains unresolved because the uncertainty in calculated risk estimates has not been established. This work examines the uncertainty in absolute risk estimates and in the ratio of risk estimates between different treatment modalities. Methods and Materials: Clinically reasonable out-of-field doses and calculated risk estimates were taken from the literature for several prostate treatment modalities, including intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), and were recalculated using the most recent risk model. The uncertainties in this risk model and uncertainties in the linearity of the dose-response model were considered in generating 90% confidence intervals for the uncertainty in the absolute risk estimates and in the ratio of the risk estimates. Results: The absolute risk estimates of fatal secondary malignancy were associated with very large uncertainties, which precluded distinctions between the risks associated with the different treatment modalities considered. However, a much smaller confidence interval exists for the ratio of risk estimates, and this ratio between different treatment modalities may be statistically significant when there is an effective dose equivalent difference of at least 50%. Such a difference may exist between clinically reasonable treatment options, including 6-MV IMRT versus 18-MV IMRT for prostate therapy. Conclusion: The ratio of the risk between different treatment modalities may be significantly different. Consequently risk models and associated risk estimates may be useful and meaningful for evaluating different treatment options. The calculated risk of secondary malignancy should be considered in the selection of an optimal treatment plan.

  18. Estimating solar radiation for plant simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hodges, T.; French, V.; Leduc, S.

    1985-01-01

    Five algorithms producing daily solar radiation surrogates using daily temperatures and rainfall were evaluated using measured solar radiation data for seven U.S. locations. The algorithms were compared both in terms of accuracy of daily solar radiation estimates and terms of response when used in a plant growth simulation model (CERES-wheat). Requirements for accuracy of solar radiation for plant growth simulation models are discussed. One algorithm is recommended as being best suited for use in these models when neither measured nor satellite estimated solar radiation values are available.

  19. Low-level ionizing radiation from noninvasive cardiac imaging: can we extrapolate estimated risks from epidemiologic data to the clinical setting?

    PubMed

    Laskey, Warren K; Feinendegen, Ludwig E; Neumann, Ronald D; Dilsizian, Vasken

    2010-05-01

    Clinical decision-making regarding the use of low-level ionizing radiation for diagnostic and/or therapeutic purposes in patients with cardiovascular disease must, as in all other clinical scenarios, encompass the broad range of the risk-benefit ratio. Concerns regarding the late carcinogenic effects of exposure to low levels, i.e., <100 mSv, of ionizing radiation stem from extrapolation of exposure-outcome data in survivors of World War II atomic bomb explosions. However, ongoing debate regarding the true incremental risk to subjects exposed to doses currently administered in cardiovascular procedures fails to take into account the uncertainty of the dose-response relationship in this lower range, as well as tissue-specific reparative responses, also manifest at lower levels of exposure. The present discussion draws attention to both of these aspects as they relate to clinical decision-making. PMID:20466348

  20. Estimating shortwave solar radiation using net radiation and meteorological measurements

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Shortwave radiation has a wide variety of uses in land-atmosphere interactions research. Actual evapotranspiration estimation that involves stomatal conductance models like Jarvis and Ball-Berry require shortwave radiation to estimate photon flux density. However, in most weather stations, shortwave...

  1. A New View of Radiation-Induced Cancer: Integrating Short- and Long-Term Processes. Part II: Second Cancer Risk Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David J.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Sachs, Rainer K.

    2009-01-01

    As the number of cancer survivors grows, prediction of radiotherapy-induced second cancer risks becomes increasingly important. Because the latency period for solid tumors is long, the risks of recently introduced radiotherapy protocols are not yet directly measurable. In the accompanying article, we presented a new biologically based mathematical model, which, in principle, can estimate second cancer risks for any protocol. The novelty of the model is that it integrates, into a single formalism, mechanistic analyses of pre-malignant cell dynamics on two different time scales: short-term during radiotherapy and recovery; long-term during the entire life span. Here, we apply the model to nine solid cancer types (stomach, lung, colon, rectal, pancreatic, bladder, breast, central nervous system, and thyroid) using data on radiotherapy-induced second malignancies, on Japanese atomic bomb survivors, and on background US cancer incidence. Potentially, the model can be incorporated into radiotherapy treatment planning algorithms, adding second cancer risk as an optimization criterion.

  2. A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose-Response Estimation.

    PubMed

    Furukawa, Kyoji; Misumi, Munechika; Cologne, John B; Cullings, Harry M

    2016-06-01

    In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose-response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose-response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece-wise-linear dose-response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose-response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low-dose radiation exposures. PMID:26581473

  3. Box model of radionuclide dispersion and radiation risk estimation for population in case of radioactivity release from nuclear submarine {number_sign}601 dumped in the Kara Sea

    SciTech Connect

    Yefimov, E.I.; Pankratov, D.V.; Ignatiev, S.V.

    1997-12-31

    When ships with nuclear reactors or nuclear materials aboard suffer shipwreck or in the case of burial or dumping of radioactive wastes, atmospheric fallout, etc., radionuclides may be released and spread in the sea, contaminating the sea water and the sea bottom. When a nuclear submarine (NS) is dumped this spread of activity may occur due to gradual core destruction by corrosion over many years. The objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical model of radionuclide dispersion and to assess the population dose and radiation risk for radionuclide release from the NS No. 601, with Pb-Bi coolant that was dumped in the Kara Sea.

  4. Estimating the radiation absorbed by a human.

    PubMed

    Kenny, Natasha A; Warland, Jon S; Brown, Robert D; Gillespie, Terry G

    2008-07-01

    The complexities of the interactions between long- and short-wave radiation fluxes and the human body make it inherently difficult to estimate precisely the total radiation absorbed (R) by a human in an outdoor environment. The purpose of this project was to assess and compare three methods to estimate the radiation absorbed by a human in an outdoor environment, and to compare the impact of applying various skin and clothing albedos (alpha ( h )) on R. Field tests were conducted under both clear and overcast skies to evaluate the performance of applying a cylindrical radiation thermometer (CRT), net radiometer, and a theoretical estimation model to predict R. Three albedos were evaluated: light (alpha ( h ) = 0.57), medium (alpha ( h ) = 0.37), and dark (alpha ( h ) = 0.21). During the sampling periods, the range of error between the methods used to estimate the radiation absorbed by a cylindrical body under clear and overcast skies ranged from 3 to 8%. Clothing and skin albedo had a substantial impact on R, with the mean change in R between the darkest and lightest albedos ranging from 115 to 157 W m( - 2) over the sampling period. Radiation is one of the most important variables to consider in outdoor thermal comfort research, as R is often the largest contributor to the human energy balance equation. The methods outlined and assessed in this study can be conveniently applied to provide reliable estimates of the radiation absorbed by a human in an outdoor environment. PMID:18273649

  5. A Model to Estimate the Risk of Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema: Combinations of Treatment-Related Factors of the Number of Dissected Axillary Nodes, Adjuvant Chemotherapy, and Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Myungsoo; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Sung Uk; Lee, Nam Kwon; Jung, So-Youn; Kim, Tae Hyun; Lee, Eun Sook; Kang, Han-Sung; Shin, Kyung Hwan

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: The development of breast cancer-related lymphedema (LE) is closely related to the number of dissected axillary lymph nodes (N-ALNs), chemotherapy, and radiation therapy. In this study, we attempted to estimate the risk of LE based on combinations of these treatment-related factors. Methods and Materials: A total of 772 patients with breast cancer, who underwent primary surgery with axillary lymph node dissection from 2004 to 2009, were retrospectively analyzed. Adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) was performed in 677 patients (88%). Among patients who received radiation therapy (n=675), 274 (35%) received supraclavicular radiation therapy (SCRT). Results: At a median follow-up of 5.1 years (range, 3.0-8.3 years), 127 patients had developed LE. The overall 5-year cumulative incidence of LE was 17%. Among the 127 affected patients, LE occurred within 2 years after surgery in 97 (76%) and within 3 years in 115 (91%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that N-ALN (hazard ratio [HR], 2.81; P<.001), ACT (HR, 4.14; P=.048), and SCRT (HR, 3.24; P<.001) were independent risk factors for LE. The total number of risk factors correlated well with the incidence of LE. Patients with no risk or 1 risk factor showed a significantly lower 5-year probability of LE (3%) than patients with 2 (19%) or 3 risk factors (38%) (P<.001). Conclusions: The risk factors associated with LE were N-ALN, ACT, and SCRT. A simple model using combinations of these factors may help clinicians predict the risk of LE.

  6. Radiation therapy in pregnancy: risk calculation and risk minimization.

    PubMed

    Greskovich, J F; Macklis, R M

    2000-12-01

    The benefits of radiation therapy (RT) as part of a treatment regimen for cancer must be weighed against the potential risk of harm to the patient and in the pregnant patient, the risk to the developing fetus. Information necessary for determining the potential effects of RT on the developing fetus include the gestational age, absorbed fetal dose-equivalent, and dose-rate. The risk periods in humans for RT-induced prenatal or neonatal death, congenital anomalies, severe mental retardation (SMR), temporary (TGR) or permanent growth retardation (PGR), carcinogenesis, sterility, and germ cell mutations have been elicited directly from the study of Japanese victims of the atomic bombs and unintentional medical exposures, and indirectly from animal experiments. The wide range of congenital anomalies elicited from animal studies have not occurred in the Japanese atomic bomb victims exposed in utero. The major congenital anomaly observed in the Japanese cohort has been microcephaly. The highest risk period for SMR correlates with the proliferation, differentiation, and, most importantly, migration of neurons from their proliferative zones. PGR was apparent 17 years after ionizing radiation (IR) exposure at Hiroshima in children who were within 1,500 meters of the hypocenter. Children were on average 2.25 cm shorter, 3 kg lighter, and had head diameters 1.1 cm smaller than age-matched children. The projected lifetime risk of cancer mortality in the Japanese cohort is 14% per gray. The risk of a radiation-induced hereditary disorder is reported to be approximately 1% per gray. RT plays a major role in the definitive treatment of cervical and breast carcinomas, Hodgkin's disease, and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. With appropriate abdominal shielding in place, the estimated fetal dose can be reduced by 50% or greater in most cases. In certain clinical situations, RT may be administered during pregnancy. PMID:11130470

  7. A new view of radiation-induced cancer: integrating short- and long-term processes. Part II: second cancer risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Shuryak, Igor; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Sachs, Rainer K; Brenner, David J

    2009-08-01

    As the number of cancer survivors grows, prediction of radiotherapy-induced second cancer risks becomes increasingly important. Because the latency period for solid tumors is long, the risks of recently introduced radiotherapy protocols are not yet directly measurable. In the accompanying article, we presented a new biologically based mathematical model, which, in principle, can estimate second cancer risks for any protocol. The novelty of the model is that it integrates, into a single formalism, mechanistic analyses of pre-malignant cell dynamics on two different time scales: short-term during radiotherapy and recovery; long-term during the entire life span. Here, we apply the model to nine solid cancer types (stomach, lung, colon, rectal, pancreatic, bladder, breast, central nervous system, and thyroid) using data on radiotherapy-induced second malignancies, on Japanese atomic bomb survivors, and on background US cancer incidence. Potentially, the model can be incorporated into radiotherapy treatment planning algorithms, adding second cancer risk as an optimization criterion. PMID:19499238

  8. Real and Perceived Risks of Medical Radiation Exposure

    PubMed Central

    Hendee, William R.

    1983-01-01

    There is almost no subject that elicits greater concern and less objective understanding than that of exposure of patients to radiation accompanying diagnostic radiologic procedures. One or more of the health effects (cancer, developmental abnormalties and genetic changes) attributed to low-level exposure to radiation are frequently misinterpreted as likely consequences rather than statistical risks following radiation exposure. Even less well understood is the small magnitude of the risks accompanying radiation exposure compared with those related to activities encountered during the daily routine. For this reason, the perception of risk associated with exposure to low-level radiation is inconsistent with the reality of the risk as estimated by even the most conservative models of radiation injury. PMID:6858126

  9. Biological Bases of Space Radiation Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    In this session, Session JP4, the discussion focuses on the following topics: Hematopoiesis Dynamics in Irradiated Mammals, Mathematical Modeling; Estimating Health Risks in Space from Galactic Cosmic Rays; Failure of Heavy Ions to Affect Physiological Integrity of the Corneal Endothelial Monolayer; Application of an Unbiased Two-Gel CDNA Library Screening Method to Expression Monitoring of Genes in Irradiated Versus Control Cells; Detection of Radiation-Induced DNA Strand Breaks in Mammalian Cells By Enzymatic Post-Labeling; Evaluation of Bleomycin-Induced Chromosome Aberrations Under Microgravity Conditions in Human Lymphocytes, Using "Fish" Techniques; Technical Description of the Space Exposure Biology Assembly Seba on ISS; and Cytogenetic Research in Biological Dosimetry.

  10. Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2007-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

  11. Temporal variability patterns in solar radiation estimations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vindel, José M.; Navarro, Ana A.; Valenzuela, Rita X.; Zarzalejo, Luis F.

    2016-06-01

    In this work, solar radiation estimations obtained from a satellite and a numerical weather prediction model in mainland Spain have been compared. Similar comparisons have been formerly carried out, but in this case, the methodology used is different: the temporal variability of both sources of estimation has been compared with the annual evolution of the radiation associated to the different study climate zones. The methodology is based on obtaining behavior patterns, using a Principal Component Analysis, following the annual evolution of solar radiation estimations. Indeed, the adjustment degree to these patterns in each point (assessed from maps of correlation) may be associated with the annual radiation variation (assessed from the interquartile range), which is associated, in turn, to different climate zones. In addition, the goodness of each estimation source has been assessed comparing it with data obtained from the radiation measurements in ground by pyranometers. For the study, radiation data from Satellite Application Facilities and data corresponding to the reanalysis carried out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have been used.

  12. Ionizing radiation risks to satellite power systems (SPS) workers

    SciTech Connect

    Lyman, J.T.; Ainsworth, E.J.; Alpen, E.L.; Bond, V.; Curtis, S.B.; Fry, R.J.M.; Jackson, K.L.; Nachtwey, S.; Sondhaus, C.; Tobias, C.A.; Fabrikant, J.I.

    1980-11-01

    The radiation risks to the health of workers who will construct and maintain solar power satellites in the space environment were examined. For ionizing radiation, the major concern will be late or delayed health effects, particularly the increased risk of radiation-induced cancer. The estimated lifetime risk for cancer is 0.8 to 5.0 excess deaths per 10,000 workers per rad of exposure. Thus, for example, in 10,000 workers who completed ten missions with an exposure of 40 rem per mission, 320 to 2000 additional deaths in excess of the 1640 deaths from normally occurring cancer, would be expected. These estimates would indicate a 20 to 120% increase in cancer deaths in the worker-population. The wide range in these estimates stems from the choice of the risk-projection model and the dose-response relationsip. The choice between a linear and a linear-quadratic dose-response model may alter the risk estimate by a factor of about two. The method of analysis (e.g., relative vs absolute risk model) can alter the risk estimate by an additional factor of three. Choosing different age and sex distributions can further change the estimate by another factor of up to three. The potential genetic consequences could be of significance, but at the present time, sufficient information on the age and sex distribution of the worker population is lacking for precise estimation of risk. The potential teratogenic consequences resulting from radiation are considered significant. Radiation exposure of a pregnant worker could result in developmental abnormalities.

  13. Principles of estimation of Radiative danger

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korogodin, V. I.

    1990-08-01

    The main principles of the estimation of Radiative danger has been discussed. Two main particularities of the danger were pointed out: negatve consequencies of small doses, which does not lead to radiation sickness, but lead to disfunctions of sanguine organs and thin intestines; absolute estimation of biological anomalies, which was forwarded by A.D. Sakharov (1921-1989). The ethic aspects of the use of Nuclear weapons on the fate of Human civilization were pointed out by A.D. Sakharov (1921-1990).

  14. The assessment of risks from exposure to low-levels of ionizing radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1992-06-01

    This report is concerned with risk assessments for human populations receiving low level radiation doses; workers routinely exposed to radiation, Japanese victims of nuclear bombs, and the general public are all considered. Topics covered include risk estimates for cancer, mortality rates, risk estimates for nuclear site workers, and dosimetry.

  15. Instrumentation for investigation of the depth-dose distribution by the Liulin-5 instrument of a human phantom on the Russian segment of ISS for estimation of the radiation risk during long term space flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Semkova, J.; Koleva, R.; Todorova, G.; Kanchev, N.; Petrov, V.; Shurshakov, V.; Tchhernykh, I.; Kireeva, S.

    2004-01-01

    Described is the Liulin-5 experiment and instrumentation, developed for investigation of the space radiation doses depth distribution in a human phantom on the Russian Segment of the International Space Station (ISS). Liulin-5 experiment is a part of the international project MATROSHKA-R on ISS. The experiment MATROSHKA-R is aimed to study the depth dose distribution at the sites of critical organs of the human body, using models of human body-anthropomorphic and spherical tissue-equivalent phantoms. The aim of Liulin-5 experiment is long term (4-5 years) investigation of the radiation environment dynamics inside the spherical tissue-equivalent phantom, mounted in different places of the Russian Segment of ISS. Energy deposition spectra, linear energy transfer spectra, flux and dose rates for protons and the biologically-relevant heavy ion components of the galactic cosmic radiation will be measured simultaneously with near real time resolution at different depths of the phantom by a telescope of silicon detectors. Data obtained together with data from other active and passive dosimeters will be used to estimate the radiation risk to the crewmembers, verify the models of radiation environment in low Earth orbit, validate body transport model and correlate organ level dose to skin dose. Presented are the test results of the prototype unit. The spherical phantom will be flown on the ISS in 2004 year and Liulin-5 experiment is planned for 2005 year. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Instrumentation for investigation of the depth-dose distribution by the Liulin-5 instrument of a human phantom on the Russian segment of ISS for estimation of the radiation risk during long term space flights.

    PubMed

    Semkova, J; Koleva, R; Todorova, G; Kanchev, N; Petrov, V; Shurshakov, V; Tchhernykh, I; Kireeva, S

    2004-01-01

    Described is the Liulin-5 experiment and instrumentation, developed for investigation of the space radiation doses depth distribution in a human phantom on the Russian Segment of the International Space Station (ISS). Liulin-5 experiment is a part of the international project MATROSHKA-R on ISS. The experiment MATROSHKA-R is aimed to study the depth dose distribution at the sites of critical organs of the human body, using models of human body-anthropomorphic and spherical tissue-equivalent phantoms. The aim of Liulin-5 experiment is long term (4-5 years) investigation of the radiation environment dynamics inside the spherical tissue-equivalent phantom, mounted in different places of the Russian Segment of ISS. Energy deposition spectra, linear energy transfer spectra, flux and dose rates for protons and the biologically-relevant heavy ion components of the galactic cosmic radiation will be measured simultaneously with near real time resolution at different depths of the phantom by a telescope of silicon detectors. Data obtained together with data from other active and passive dosimeters will be used to estimate the radiation risk to the crewmembers, verify the models of radiation environment in low Earth orbit, validate body transport model and correlate organ level dose to skin dose. Presented are the test results of the prototype unit. The spherical phantom will be flown on the ISS in 2004 year and Liulin-5 experiment is planned for 2005 year. PMID:15880917

  17. NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

    2015-01-01

    NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

  18. Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinclair, W. K.

    1994-10-01

    Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, wR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. wR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in wR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.

  19. Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sinclair, W K

    1994-01-01

    Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays. PMID:11538038

  20. Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sinclair, W. K.

    1994-01-01

    Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.

  1. Risk cross sections and their application to risk estimation in the galactic cosmic-ray environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, S. B.; Nealy, J. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Chatterjee, A. (Principal Investigator)

    1995-01-01

    Radiation risk cross sections (i.e. risks per particle fluence) are discussed in the context of estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer on long-term space flights from the galactic cosmic radiation outside the confines of the earth's magnetic field. Such quantities are useful for handling effects not seen after low-LET radiation. Since appropriate cross-section functions for cancer induction for each particle species are not yet available, the conventional quality factor is used as an approximation to obtain numerical results for risks of excess cancer mortality. Risks are obtained for seven of the most radiosensitive organs as determined by the ICRP [stomach, colon, lung, bone marrow (BFO), bladder, esophagus and breast], beneath 10 g/cm2 aluminum shielding at solar minimum. Spectra are obtained for excess relative risk for each cancer per LET interval by calculating the average fluence-LET spectrum for the organ and converting to risk by multiplying by a factor proportional to R gamma L Q(L) before integrating over L, the unrestricted LET. Here R gamma is the risk coefficient for low-LET radiation (excess relative mortality per Sv) for the particular organ in question. The total risks of excess cancer mortality obtained are 1.3 and 1.1% to female and male crew, respectively, for a 1-year exposure at solar minimum. Uncertainties in these values are estimated to range between factors of 4 and 15 and are dominated by the biological uncertainties in the risk coefficients for low-LET radiation and in the LET (or energy) dependence of the risk cross sections (as approximated by the quality factor). The direct substitution of appropriate risk cross sections will eventually circumvent entirely the need to calculate, measure or use absorbed dose, equivalent dose and quality factor for such a high-energy charged-particle environment.

  2. Dynamic cost risk estimation and budget misspecification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ebbeler, D. H.; Fox, G.; Habib-Agahi, H.

    2003-01-01

    Cost risk for new technology development is estimated by explicit stochastic processes. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate technology development activity budget changes during the technology development cycle.

  3. Probabilistic Assessment of Radiation Risk for Astronauts in Space Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; DeAngelis, Giovanni; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2009-01-01

    Accurate predictions of the health risks to astronauts from space radiation exposure are necessary for enabling future lunar and Mars missions. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons, (less than 100 MeV); and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which include protons and heavy ions of higher energies. While the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the solar activity cycle, SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. A solar modulation model has been developed for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment, which is represented by the deceleration potential, phi. The risk of radiation exposure from SPEs during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern for radiation protection, including determining the shielding and operational requirements for astronauts and hardware. To support the probabilistic risk assessment for EVAs, which would be up to 15% of crew time on lunar missions, we estimated the probability of SPE occurrence as a function of time within a solar cycle using a nonhomogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, (phi)30. The resultant organ doses and dose equivalents, as well as effective whole body doses for acute and cancer risk estimations are analyzed for a conceptual habitat module and a lunar rover during defined space mission periods. This probabilistic approach to radiation risk assessment from SPE and GCR is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks for space exploration.

  4. Risk of Skin Cancer from Space Radiation. Chapter 11

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; George, Kerry A.; Wu, Hong-Lu

    2003-01-01

    We review the methods for estimating the probability of increased incidence of skin cancers from space radiation exposure, and describe some of the individual factors that may contribute to risk projection models, including skin pigment, and synergistic effects of combined ionizing and UV exposure. The steep dose gradients from trapped electrons, protons, and heavy ions radiation during EVA and limitations in EVA dosimetry are important factors for projecting skin cancer risk of astronauts. We estimate that the probability of increased skin cancer risk varies more than 10-fold for individual astronauts and that the risk of skin cancer could exceed 1 % for future lunar base operations for astronauts with light skin color and hair. Limitations in physical dosimetry in estimating the distribution of dose at the skin suggest that new biodosimetry methods be developed for responding to accidental overexposure of the skin during future space missions.

  5. Radiation in medicine: Origins, risks and aspirations

    PubMed Central

    Donya, Mohamed; Radford, Mark; ElGuindy, Ahmed; Firmin, David; Yacoub, Magdi H.

    2014-01-01

    The use of radiation in medicine is now pervasive and routine. From their crude beginnings 100 years ago, diagnostic radiology, nuclear medicine and radiation therapy have all evolved into advanced techniques, and are regarded as essential tools across all branches and specialties of medicine. The inherent properties of ionizing radiation provide many benefits, but can also cause potential harm. Its use within medical practice thus involves an informed judgment regarding the risk/benefit ratio. This judgment requires not only medical knowledge, but also an understanding of radiation itself. This work provides a global perspective on radiation risks, exposure and mitigation strategies. PMID:25780797

  6. Estimated Radiation on Mars, Hits per Cell Nucleus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    This global map of Mars shows estimates for amounts of high-energy-particle cosmic radiation reaching the surface, a serious health concern for any future human exploration of the planet.

    The estimates are based on cosmic-radiation measurements made on the way to Mars by the Mars radiation environment experiment, an instrument on NASA's 2001 Mars Odyssey spacecraft, plus information about Mars' surface elevations from the laser altimeter instrument on NASA's Mars Global Surveyor. The areas of Mars expected to have least radiation are where elevation is lowest, because those areas have more atmosphere above them to block out some of the radiation. Earth's thick atmosphere shields us from most cosmic radiation, but Mars has a much thinner atmosphere than Earth does.

    Colors in the map refer to the estimated average number of times per year each cell nucleus in a human there would be hit by a high-energy cosmic ray particle. The range is generally from two hits (color-coded green), a moderate risk level, to eight hits (coded red), a high risk level.

    NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey and Mars Global Surveyor missions for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington D.C. The Mars radiation environment experiment was developed by NASA's Johnson Space Center. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for Odyssey, and developed and built the orbiter. Mission operations are conducted jointly from Lockheed Martin and from JPL, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

  7. Submarine tower escape decompression sickness risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Loveman, G A M; Seddon, E M; Thacker, J C; Stansfield, M R; Jurd, K M

    2014-01-01

    Actions to enhance survival in a distressed submarine (DISSUB) scenario may be guided in part by knowledge of the likely risk of decompression sickness (DCS) should the crew attempt tower escape. A mathematical model for DCS risk estimation has been calibrated against DCS outcome data from 3,738 exposures of either men or goats to raised pressure. Body mass was used to scale DCS risk. The calibration data included more than 1,000 actual or simulated submarine escape exposures and no exposures with substantial staged decompression. Cases of pulmonary barotrauma were removed from the calibration data. The calibrated model was used to estimate the likelihood of DCS occurrence following submarine escape from the United Kingdom Royal Navy tower escape system. Where internal DISSUB pressure remains at - 0.1 MPa, escape from DISSUB depths < 200 meters is estimated to have DCS risk < 6%. Saturation at raised DISSUB pressure markedly increases risk, with > 60% DCS risk predicted for a 200-meter escape from saturation at 0.21 MPa. Using the calibrated model to predict DCS for direct ascent from saturation gives similar risk estimates to other published models. PMID:25109085

  8. Regional estimates of radiated seismic energy

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, J.; Choy, G.L.; Seekins, L.C.

    2002-01-01

    We revise the spectral technique for estimating radiated energy from recordings of large earthquakes at regional distances (?? 27.5 km from the source, we model the geometrical spreading of the regional wavefield as r-?? where???? = 0.5 for f ??? 0.2 Hz and ?? = 0.7 for f ??? 0.25 Hz. We fit the spectral falloff with distance using a frequency-dependent attenuation Q = 400(f/1.5)0.6, where Q = 400 for f ??? 1.5 Hz. There is little directivity apparent in the corrected velocity spectra: the velocity spectra observed to the northwest along strike are amplified by a factor of 2.5 from 0.3 to 1.0 Hz and those to the southeast are amplified by a factor of 1.6 from 0.3 to 0.7 Hz. We group the stations in NEHRP site classes, using average 1-D velocity structures to estimate site amplification as a function of frequency and assuming 0.40 ??? ?? ??? 0.55 sec for the near-surface attenuation. We increase the amplification of the soft-soil sites from 0.1 to 1.0 Hz by a factor that reaches 1.7 at 0.3 Hz because they are more strongly amplified than the NEHRP-D velocity structure predicts. We combine the 65 single-station estimates of radiated energy using an equal-azimuth weighting scheme that compensates for station distribution and incorporates the observed directivity, yielding a regional estimate of Es = 3.4 ?? 0.7 ?? 1022 dyne cm. This regional estimate of radiated energy corresponds closely to the teleseismic estimate of Es = 3.2 ?? 1022 dyne cm.

  9. Radiation-related cancer risks from CT colonography screening: a risk-benefit analysis

    PubMed Central

    de González, Amy Berrington; Kim, Kwang Pyo; Knudsen, Amy B.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Rutter, Carolyn M.; Smith-Bindman, Rebecca; Yee, Judy; Kuntz, Karen M.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Zauber, Ann G.; Berg, Christine D.

    2012-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study was to estimate the ratio of cancers prevented to induced (benefit-risk ratio) for CT colonography screening every five years from age 50-80. Materials and methods Radiation-related cancer risk was estimated using risk projection models based on the National Research Council's BEIR VII committee's report and screening protocols from the American College of Radiology Imaging Network's National CT Colonography Trial. Uncertainty limits (UL) were estimated using Monte-Carlo simulation methods. Comparative modelling with three colorectal cancer microsimulation models was used to estimate the potential reduction in colorectal cancer cases and deaths. Results The estimated mean effective dose per CT colonography screen was 8mSv for females and 7mSv for males. The estimated number of radiation-related cancers from CT colonography screening every 5 years from age 50-80 was 150 cases/100,000 individuals (95%UL:80-280) for males and females. The estimated number of colorectal cancers prevented by CT colonography every 5 years from age 50-80 ranged across the three microsimulation models from 3580 to 5190/100,000, yielding a benefit-risk ratio that varied from 24:1(95%UL=13:1-45:1) to 35:1(95%UL=19:1-65:1). The benefit-risk ratio for cancer deaths was even higher than the ratio for cancer cases. Inclusion of radiation-related cancer risks from CT scans following-up extracolonic findings did not materially alter the results. Conclusions Concerns have been raised about recommending CT colonography as a routine screening tool because of the potential harms, including the radiation risks. Based on these models the benefits from CT colonography screening every five years from age 50-80 clearly outweigh the radiation risks. PMID:21427330

  10. Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2008-01-01

    Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk

  11. Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

  12. [Estimation of risk areas for hepatitis A].

    PubMed

    Braga, Ricardo Cerqueira Campos; Valencia, Luís Iván Ortiz; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade; Escosteguy, Claudia Caminha

    2008-08-01

    This study estimated hepatitis A risk areas in a region of Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. A cross-sectional study consisting of a hepatitis A serological survey and a household survey were conducted in 19 census tracts. Of these, 11 tracts were selected and 1,298 children from one to ten years of age were included in the study. Geostatistical techniques allowed modeling the spatial continuity of hepatitis A, non-use of filtered drinking water, time since installation of running water, and number of water taps per household and their spatial estimation through ordinary and indicator kriging. Adjusted models for the outcome and socioeconomic variables were isotropic; risk maps were constructed; cross-validation of the four models was satisfactory. Spatial estimation using the kriging method detected areas with increased risk of hepatitis A, independently of the urban administrative area in which the census tracts were located. PMID:18709215

  13. Factors that modify risks of radiation-induced cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1988-11-01

    The collective influence of biologic and physical factors that modify risks of radiation-induced cancer introduces uncertainties sufficient to deny precision of estimates of human cancer risk that can be calculated for low-dose radiation in exposed populations. The important biologic characteristics include the tissue sites and cell types, baseline cancer incidence, minimum latent period, time-to-tumor recognition, and the influence of individual host (age and sex) and competing etiologic influences. Physical factors include radiation dose, dose rate, and radiation quality. Statistical factors include time-response projection models, risk coefficients, and dose-response relationships. Other modifying factors include other carcinogens, and other biological sources (hormonal status, immune status, hereditary factors).

  14. On cancer risk estimation of urban air pollution.

    PubMed Central

    Törnqvist, M; Ehrenberg, L

    1994-01-01

    The usefulness of data from various sources for a cancer risk estimation of urban air pollution is discussed. Considering the irreversibility of initiations, a multiplicative model is preferred for solid tumors. As has been concluded for exposure to ionizing radiation, the multiplicative model, in comparison with the additive model, predicts a relatively larger number of cases at high ages, with enhanced underestimation of risks by short follow-up times in disease-epidemiological studies. For related reasons, the extrapolation of risk from animal tests on the basis of daily absorbed dose per kilogram body weight or per square meter surface area without considering differences in life span may lead to an underestimation, and agreements with epidemiologically determined values may be fortuitous. Considering these possibilities, the most likely lifetime risks of cancer death at the average exposure levels in Sweden were estimated for certain pollution fractions or indicator compounds in urban air. The risks amount to approximately 50 deaths per 100,000 for inhaled particulate organic material (POM), with a contribution from ingested POM about three times larger, and alkenes, and butadiene cause 20 deaths, respectively, per 100,000 individuals. Also, benzene and formaldehyde are expected to be associated with considerable risk increments. Comparative potency methods were applied for POM and alkenes. Due to incompleteness of the list of compounds considered and the uncertainties of the above estimates, the total risk calculation from urban air has not been attempted here. PMID:7821292

  15. The risk of diagnostic radiation of the newborn.

    PubMed

    Fletcher, E W; Baum, J D; Draper, G

    1986-02-01

    The amount of diagnostic radiation received by neonates at a large maternity hospital in 1982 was calculated. The risk of inducing neoplasia is unlikely to be greater than one in 280,000 for each radiograph of chest or abdomen. Provided that the exposure of the newborn to radiation at the John Radcliffe Hospital is typical of the rest of the country, and excluding cardiac catheterisation and computed tomography, we estimate that at most one to two cases of malignant disease per year may be caused by diagnostic radiation in the United Kingdom. Genetic risks appear to be negligible. The risks of not using radiography in newborn patients outweigh the risks of inducing malignant or genetic disease. PMID:3947824

  16. [Integral estimation of genetic effects of ionizing radiation].

    PubMed

    Shevchenko, V A

    1997-01-01

    A system of criteria (direct, indirect, extrapolational, integral, populational, evolutional) has been proposed to estimate the consequences of irradiation of flora, fauna and human population. This system makes it possible to obtain the most comprehensive estimate of genetic effects from exposure of live organisms to ionizing radiations. An attempt has been made to use extrapolational approaches for assessing the genetic risk on the basis of the results of cytogenetic examination of the human population in a number of regions exposed to the action of ionizing radiations as a result of the Chernobyl accident, in connection with the activity of the chemical plant Mayak in the Chelyabinsk region, nuclear explosions at the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, the accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in the U.S.A. PMID:9599614

  17. Spatial ascariasis risk estimation using socioeconomic variables.

    PubMed

    Valencia, Luis Iván Ortiz; Fortes, Bruno de Paula Menezes Drumond; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade

    2005-12-01

    Frequently, disease incidence is mapped as area data, for example, census tracts, districts or states. Spatial disease incidence can be highly heterogeneous inside these areas. Ascariasis is a highly prevalent disease, which is associated with poor sanitation and hygiene. Geostatistics was applied to model spatial distribution of Ascariasis risk and socioeconomic risk events in a poor community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data were gathered from a coproparasitologic and a domiciliary survey in 1550 children aged 1-9. Ascariasis risk and socioeconomic risk events were spatially estimated using Indicator Kriging. Cokriging models with a Linear Model of Coregionalization incorporating one socioeconomic variable were implemented. If a housewife attended school for less than four years, the non-use of a home water filter, a household density greater than one, and a household income lower than one Brazilian minimum wage increased the risk of Ascariasis. Cokriging improved spatial estimation of Ascariasis risk areas when compared to Indicator Kriging and detected more Ascariasis very-high risk areas than the GIS Overlay method. PMID:16506435

  18. Radiation Risk Assessment of the Individual Astronaut: A Complement to Radiation Interests at the NIH

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, Robert C.

    2004-01-01

    Predicting human risks following exposure to space radiation is uncertain in part because of unpredictable distribution of high-LET and low-dose-derived damage amongst cells in tissues, unknown synergistic effects of microgravity upon gene- and protein-expression, and inadequately modeled processing of radiation-induced damage within cells to produce rare and late-appearing malignant cancers. Furthermore, estimation of risks of radiogenic outcome within small numbers of astronauts is not possible using classic epidemiologic study. It therefore seems useful to develop strategies of risk-assessment based upon large datasets acquired from correlated biological models useful for resolving radiogenic risk-assessment for irradiated individuals. In this regard, it is suggested that sensitive cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the biomolecular risk of malignant transformation be developed in order to resolve these NASA-specific challenges. Multiparametric cellular biodosimeters could be developed using analyses of gene-expression and protein-expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to radiation-induced damage are analyzed for markers predictive for acute response as well as cancer-risk. A new paradigm is accordingly addressed wherein genomic and proteomic datasets are registered and interrogated in order to provide statistically significant dose-dependent risk estimation in individual astronauts. This evaluation of the individual for assessment of radiogenic outcomes connects to NIH program in that such a paradigm also supports assignment of a given patient to a specific therapy, the diagnosis of response of that patient to therapy, and the prediction of risks accumulated by that patient during therapy - such as risks incurred by scatter and neutrons produced during high-energy Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy

  19. Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Badhwar, G. D.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

    2001-01-01

    Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

  20. Space radiation cancer risks and uncertainties for Mars missions.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, F A; Schimmerling, W; Wilson, J W; Peterson, L E; Badhwar, G D; Saganti, P B; Dicello, J F

    2001-11-01

    Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks. PMID:11604093

  1. Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

    2006-01-01

    Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period

  2. Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

    2005-01-01

    Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period

  3. Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.; Ponomarev, A.; Ren, L.; Shavers, M. R.; Wu, H.

    2005-01-01

    Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period

  4. Radiation Protection for Manned Interplanetary Missions - Radiation Sources, Risks, Remedies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Facius, R.; Reitz, G.

    Health risks in interplanetary explorative missions differ in two major features significantly from those during the manned missions experienced so far. For one, presently available technologies lead to durations of such missions significantly longer than so far encountered - with the added complication that emergency returns are ruled out. Thus radiation exposures and hence risks for late radiation sequelae like cancer increase proportional to mission duration - similar like most other health and many technical risks too. Secondly, loss of the geomagnetic shielding available in low earth orbits (LEO) does increase the radiation dose rates from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) since significant fractions of the GCR flux below about 10 GeV/n now can reach the space vehicle. In addition, radiation from solar particle events (SPE) which at most in polar orbit segments can contribute to the radiation exposure during LEO missions now can reach the spaceship unattenuated. Radiation doses from extreme SPEs can reach levels where even early acute radiation sickness might ensue - with the added risks from potentially associated crew performance decrements. In contrast to the by and large predictable GCR contribution, the doses and hence risks from large SPEs can only stochastically be assessed. Mission designers face the task to contain the overall health risk within acceptable limits. Towards this end they have to transport the particle fluxes of the radiation fields in free space through the walls of the spaceship and through the tissue of the astronaut to the radiation sensitive organs. To obtain a quantity which is useful for risk assessment, the radiobiological effectiveness as well as the specific sensitivity of a given organ has to be accounted for in such transport calculations which of course require a detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution and the atomic composition of the surrounding shielding material. In doing so the mission designer encounters two major

  5. IMPROVED RISK ESTIMATES FOR CARBON TETRACHLORIDE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) has been used extensively within the Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons facilities. Costs associated with cleanup of CCl4 at DOE facilities are driven by current cancer risk estimates which assume CCl4 is a genotoxic carcinogen. However, a grow...

  6. Studies on the extended Techa river cohort: cancer risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Kossenko, M M.; Preston, D L.; Krestinina, L Y.; Degteva, M O.; Startsev, N V.; Thomas, T; Vyushkova, O V.; Anspaugh, L R.; Napier, Bruce A. ); Kozheurov, V P.; Ron, E; Akleyev, A V.

    2001-12-01

    Initial population-based studies of riverside residents were begun in the late 1950s and in 1967 a systematic effort was undertaken to develop a well-defined fixed cohort of Techa river residents, to carry out ongoing mortality and (limited) clinical follow-up of this cohort, and to provide individualized dose estimates for cohort members. Over the past decade, extensive efforts have been made to refine the cohort definition and improve both the follow-up and dosimetry data. Analyses of the Techa river cohort can provide useful quantitative estimates of the effects of low dose rate, chronic external and internal exposures on cancer mortality and incidence and non-cancer mortality rates. These risk estimates complement quantitative risk estimates for acute exposures based on the atomic bomb survivors and chronic exposure risk estimates from worker studies, including Mayak workers and other groups with occupational radiation exposures. As the dosimetry and follow-up are refined it may also be possible to gain useful insights into risks associated with 90Sr exposures.

  7. Secondary prevention and estimation of fracture risk.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Paul James; Chem, C

    2013-12-01

    The key questions addressed in this chapter are: • How can individual risk of fracture be best estimated? • What is the best system to prevent a further fracture? • How to implement systems for preventing further fractures? Absolute fracture risk calculators (FRCs) provide a means to estimate an individual's future fracture risk. FRCs are widely available and provide clinicians and patients a platform to discuss the need for intervention to prevent fragility fractures. Despite availability of effective osteoporosis medicines for almost two decades, most patients presenting with new fragility fractures do not receive secondary preventive care. The Fracture Liaison Service (FLS) model has been shown in a number of countries to eliminate the care gap in a clinically and cost-effective manner. Leading international and national organisations have developed comprehensive resources and/or national strategy documents to provide guidance on implementation of FLS in local, regional and national health-care systems. PMID:24836336

  8. Estimating Terrorist Risk with Possibility Theory

    SciTech Connect

    J.L. Darby

    2004-11-30

    This report summarizes techniques that use possibility theory to estimate the risk of terrorist acts. These techniques were developed under the sponsorship of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as part of the National Infrastructure Simulation Analysis Center (NISAC) project. The techniques have been used to estimate the risk of various terrorist scenarios to support NISAC analyses during 2004. The techniques are based on the Logic Evolved Decision (LED) methodology developed over the past few years by Terry Bott and Steve Eisenhawer at LANL. [LED] The LED methodology involves the use of fuzzy sets, possibility theory, and approximate reasoning. LED captures the uncertainty due to vagueness and imprecision that is inherent in the fidelity of the information available for terrorist acts; probability theory cannot capture these uncertainties. This report does not address the philosophy supporting the development of nonprobabilistic approaches, and it does not discuss possibility theory in detail. The references provide a detailed discussion of these subjects. [Shafer] [Klir and Yuan] [Dubois and Prade] Suffice to say that these approaches were developed to address types of uncertainty that cannot be addressed by a probability measure. An earlier report discussed in detail the problems with using a probability measure to evaluate terrorist risk. [Darby Methodology]. Two related techniques are discussed in this report: (1) a numerical technique, and (2) a linguistic technique. The numerical technique uses traditional possibility theory applied to crisp sets, while the linguistic technique applies possibility theory to fuzzy sets. Both of these techniques as applied to terrorist risk for NISAC applications are implemented in software called PossibleRisk. The techniques implemented in PossibleRisk were developed specifically for use in estimating terrorist risk for the NISAC program. The LEDTools code can be used to perform the same linguistic evaluation as

  9. Quantification of Contralateral Breast Dose and Risk Estimate of Radiation-Induced Contralateral Breast Cancer Among Young Women Using Tangential Fields and Different Modes of Breathing

    SciTech Connect

    Zurl, Brigitte; Stranzl, Heidi; Winkler, Peter; Kapp, Karin Sigrid

    2013-02-01

    Purpose: Whole breast irradiation with deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) technique among left-sided breast cancer patients significantly reduces cardiac irradiation; however, a potential disadvantage is increased incidental irradiation of the contralateral breast. Methods and Materials: Contralateral breast dose (CBD) was calculated by comparing 400 treatment plans of 200 left-sided breast cancer patients whose tangential fields had been planned on gated and nongated CT data sets. Various anatomic and field parameters were analyzed for their impact on CBD. For a subgroup of patients (aged {<=}45 years) second cancer risk in the contralateral breast (CB) was modeled by applying the linear quadratic model, compound models, and compound models considering dose-volume information (DVH). Results: The mean CBD was significantly higher in DIBH with 0.69 Gy compared with 0.65 Gy in normal breathing (P=.01). The greatest impact on CBD was due to a shift of the inner field margin toward the CB in DIBH (mean 0.4 cm; range, 0-2), followed by field size in magnitude. Calculation with different risk models for CBC revealed values of excess relative risk/Gy ranging from 0.48-0.65 vs 0.46-0.61 for DIBH vs normal breathing, respectively. Conclusion: Contralateral breast dose, although within a low dose range, was mildly but significantly increased in 200 treatment plans generated under gated conditions, predominately due to a shift in the medial field margin. Risk modeling for CBC among women aged {<=}45 years also pointed to a higher risk when comparing DIBH with normal breathing. This risk, however, was substantially lower in the model considering DVH information. We think that clinical decisions should not be affected by this small increase in CBD with DIBH because DIBH is effective in reducing the dose to the heart in all patients.

  10. Space Radiation and Risks to Human Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, Janice L.

    2014-01-01

    The radiation environment in space poses significant challenges to human health and is a major concern for long duration manned space missions. Outside the Earth's protective magnetosphere, astronauts are exposed to higher levels of galactic cosmic rays, whose physical characteristics are distinct from terrestrial sources of radiation such as x-rays and gamma-rays. Galactic cosmic rays consist of high energy and high mass nuclei as well as high energy protons; they impart unique biological damage as they traverse through tissue with impacts on human health that are largely unknown. The major health issues of concern are the risks of radiation carcinogenesis, acute and late decrements to the central nervous system, degenerative tissue effects such as cardiovascular disease, as well as possible acute radiation syndromes due to an unshielded exposure to a large solar particle event. The NASA Human Research Program's Space Radiation Program Element is focused on characterization and mitigation of these space radiation health risks along with understanding these risks in context of the other biological stressors found in the space environment. In this overview, we will provide a description of these health risks and the Element's research strategies to understand and mitigate these risks.

  11. [Cancer risk associated to ionizing radiation].

    PubMed

    Laurier, Dominique; Hill, Catherine

    2013-10-01

    This article presents an update of the available data on the risk of cancer associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. The epidemiological studies conducted or continued during the last 10 years have led to improved quantification of radiation induced risks at low dose levels, notably by extension of the follow-up duration. The results comfort the underlying hypotheses of the radiation protection system in use. In particular, they show the existence of an increased risk for doses below 100 mSv of for exposures protracted over time. These results highlight the relevance of measures to reduce all exposures: accidental, medical, occupational or natural, and reinforce the importance of a prudent use of medical radiation, particularly for children. PMID:24298833

  12. NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blattnig, Steve R.; Chappell, Lori J.; George, Kerry A.; Hada, Megumi; Hu, Shaowen; Kidane, Yared H.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Kovyrshina, Tatiana; Norman, Ryan B.; Nounu, Hatem N.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Pluth, Janice M.; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Scott Carnell, Lisa A.; Slaba, Tony C.; Sridharan, Deepa; Xu, Xiaojing

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Space Radiation Risk project is responsible for integrating new experimental and computational results into models to predict risk of cancer and acute radiation syndrome (ARS) for use in mission planning and systems design, as well as current space operations. The project has several parallel efforts focused on proving NASA's radiation risk projection capability in both the near and long term. This presentation will give an overview, with select results from these efforts including the following topics: verification, validation, and streamlining the transition of models to use in decision making; relative biological effectiveness and dose rate effect estimation using a combination of stochastic track structure simulations, DNA damage model calculations and experimental data; ARS model improvements; pathway analysis from gene expression data sets; solar particle event probabilistic exposure calculation including correlated uncertainties for use in design optimization.

  13. How to estimate your tolerance for risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mackay, J.A.

    1996-12-31

    Risk tolerance is used to calculate the Risk Adjusted Value (RAV) of a proposed investment. The RAV incorporates both the expected value and risk attitude for a particular investment, taking into consideration your concern for catastrophic financial loss, as well as chance of success, cost and value if successful. Uncertainty can be incorporated into all of the above variables. Often a project is more valuable to a corporation if a partial working interest is taken rather than the entire working interest. The RAV can be used to calculate the optimum working interest and the value of that diversification. To estimate the Apparent Risk Tolerance (ART) of an individual, division or corporation several methods can be employed: (1) ART can be calculated from the working interest selected in prior investment decisions. (2) ART can be estimated from a selection of working interests by the decision maker in a proposed portfolio of projects. (3) ART can be approximated from data released to the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the annual 10K supplements (for both your company and possible partners). (4) ART can be assigned based on corporate size, budget, or activity. Examples are provided for the various methods to identify risk tolerance and apply it in making optimum working interest calculations for individual projects and portfolios.

  14. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    SciTech Connect

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  15. Radiation environments and absorbed dose estimations on manned space missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curtis, S. B.; Atwell, W.; Beever, R.; Hardy, A.

    In order to make an assessment of radiation risk during manned missions in space, it is necessary first to have as accurate an estimation as possible of the radiation environment within the spacecraft to which the astronauts will be exposed. Then, with this knowledge and the inclusion of body self-shielding, estimations can be made of absorbed doses for various body organs (skin, eye, blood-forming organs, etc.). A review is presented of our present knowledge of the radiation environments and absorbed doses expected for several space mission scenarios selected for our development of the new radiation protection guidelines. The scenarios selected are a 90-day mission at an altitude (450 km) and orbital inclinations (28.5°, 57° and 90°) appropriate for NASA's Space Station, a 15-day sortie to geosynchronous orbit and a 90-day lunar mission. All scenarios chosen yielded dose equivalents between five and ten rem to the blood forming organs if no large solar particle event were encountered. Such particle events could add considerable exposure particularly to the skin and eye for all scenarios except the one at 28.5° orbital inclination.

  16. Nonparametric estimation with recurrent competing risks data

    PubMed Central

    Peña, Edsel A.

    2014-01-01

    Nonparametric estimators of component and system life distributions are developed and presented for situations where recurrent competing risks data from series systems are available. The use of recurrences of components’ failures leads to improved efficiencies in statistical inference, thereby leading to resource-efficient experimental or study designs or improved inferences about the distributions governing the event times. Finite and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained through simulation studies and analytically. The detrimental impact of parametric model misspecification is also vividly demonstrated, lending credence to the virtue of adopting nonparametric or semiparametric models, especially in biomedical settings. The estimators are illustrated by applying them to a data set pertaining to car repairs for vehicles that were under warranty. PMID:24072583

  17. Probabilistic assessment of radiation risk for astronauts in space missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; De Angelis, Giovanni; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-04-01

    Accurate estimations of the health risks to astronauts due to space radiation exposure are necessary for future lunar and Mars missions. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which include high-energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. A solar modulation model has been developed for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment, which is represented by the deceleration potential, ϕ. The risk of radiation exposure to astronauts as well as to hardware from SPEs during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern for radiation protection. To support the probabilistic risk assessment for EVAs, which could be up to 15% of crew time on lunar missions, we estimated the probability of SPE occurrence as a function of solar cycle phase using a non-homogeneous Poisson model [1] to fit the historical database of measurements of protons with energy>30 MeV, Φ30. The resultant organ doses and dose equivalents, as well as effective whole body doses, for acute and cancer risk estimations are analyzed for a conceptual habitat module and for a lunar rover during space missions of defined durations. This probabilistic approach to radiation risk assessment from SPE and GCR is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. Internal documentation of NASA Constellation Trade Study (F.A. Cucinotta, personal communication).

  18. Radiation risk and human space exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schimmerling, W.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W.

    2003-01-01

    Radiation protection is essential to enable humans to live and work safely in space. Predictions about the nature and magnitude of the risks posed by space radiation are subject to very large uncertainties. Prudent use of worst-case scenarios may impose unacceptable constraints on shielding mass for spacecraft or habitats, tours of duty of crews on Space Station, and on the radius and duration of sorties on planetary surfaces. The NASA Space Radiation Health Program has been devised to develop the knowledge required to accurately predict and to efficiently manage radiation risk. The knowledge will be acquired by means of a peer-reviewed, largely ground-based and investigator-initiated, basic science research program. The NASA Strategic Plan to accomplish these objectives in a manner consistent with the high priority assigned to the protection and health maintenance of crews will be presented. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

  19. Radiation risk and human space exploration.

    PubMed

    Schimmerling, W; Cucinotta, F A; Wilson, J W

    2003-01-01

    Radiation protection is essential to enable humans to live and work safely in space. Predictions about the nature and magnitude of the risks posed by space radiation are subject to very large uncertainties. Prudent use of worst-case scenarios may impose unacceptable constraints on shielding mass for spacecraft or habitats, tours of duty of crews on Space Station, and on the radius and duration of sorties on planetary surfaces. The NASA Space Radiation Health Program has been devised to develop the knowledge required to accurately predict and to efficiently manage radiation risk. The knowledge will be acquired by means of a peer-reviewed, largely ground-based and investigator-initiated, basic science research program. The NASA Strategic Plan to accomplish these objectives in a manner consistent with the high priority assigned to the protection and health maintenance of crews will be presented. PMID:12577903

  20. Are passive smoking, air pollution and obesity a greater mortality risk than major radiation incidents?

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Jim T

    2007-01-01

    Background Following a nuclear incident, the communication and perception of radiation risk becomes a (perhaps the) major public health issue. In response to such incidents it is therefore crucial to communicate radiation health risks in the context of other more common environmental and lifestyle risk factors. This study compares the risk of mortality from past radiation exposures (to people who survived the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs and those exposed after the Chernobyl accident) with risks arising from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Methods A comparative assessment of mortality risks from ionising radiation was carried out by estimating radiation risks for realistic exposure scenarios and assessing those risks in comparison with risks from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Results The mortality risk to populations exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident may be no higher than that for other more common risk factors such as air pollution or passive smoking. Radiation exposures experienced by the most exposed group of survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to an average loss of life expectancy significantly lower than that caused by severe obesity or active smoking. Conclusion Population-averaged risks from exposures following major radiation incidents are clearly significant, but may be no greater than those from other much more common environmental and lifestyle factors. This comparative analysis, whilst highlighting inevitable uncertainties in risk quantification and comparison, helps place the potential consequences of radiation exposures in the context of other public health risks. PMID:17407581

  1. Auditory risk estimates for youth target shooting

    PubMed Central

    Meinke, Deanna K.; Murphy, William J.; Finan, Donald S.; Lankford, James E.; Flamme, Gregory A.; Stewart, Michael; Soendergaard, Jacob; Jerome, Trevor W.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To characterize the impulse noise exposure and auditory risk for youth recreational firearm users engaged in outdoor target shooting events. The youth shooting positions are typically standing or sitting at a table, which places the firearm closer to the ground or reflective surface when compared to adult shooters. Design Acoustic characteristics were examined and the auditory risk estimates were evaluated using contemporary damage-risk criteria for unprotected adult listeners and the 120-dB peak limit suggested by the World Health Organization (1999) for children. Study sample Impulses were generated by 26 firearm/ammunition configurations representing rifles, shotguns, and pistols used by youth. Measurements were obtained relative to a youth shooter’s left ear. Results All firearms generated peak levels that exceeded the 120 dB peak limit suggested by the WHO for children. In general, shooting from the seated position over a tabletop increases the peak levels, LAeq8 and reduces the unprotected maximum permissible exposures (MPEs) for both rifles and pistols. Pistols pose the greatest auditory risk when fired over a tabletop. Conclusion Youth should utilize smaller caliber weapons, preferably from the standing position, and always wear hearing protection whenever engaging in shooting activities to reduce the risk for auditory damage. PMID:24564688

  2. [Radiation conditions and radiation risks for cosmonauts flying to Mars using electrical jet microthrusters].

    PubMed

    Shafirkin, A V; Kolomenskiĭ, A V

    2008-01-01

    According to recent workups, the Mars mission spacecraft will be designed with an electrical jet microthrusters rather than a power reactor facility. The article contains analysis of the main sources of radiation hazard during the exploration mission using this cost-efficient, ecological, easy-to-operate propulsion powered by solar arrays. In addition, the authors make predictions of the generalized doses of ionizing radiation for mission durations of 730 and 900 days behind various shielding thicknesses, and on the Martian surface. Calculation algorithms are described and radiation risks are estimated for the crew life span and possible life time reduction in consequence of participation in the mission. PMID:19140476

  3. Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, J.W.; Cucinotta, F.A.; Schimmerling, W.

    2004-02-04

    Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods.

  4. Extreme Earthquake Risk Estimation by Hybrid Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Garcia, S.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences i.e. the risk associated to the occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes in the neighborhood of urban or lifeline infrastructure, such as the 11 March 2011 Mw 9, Tohoku, Japan, represents a complex challenge as it involves the propagation of seismic waves in large volumes of the earth crust, from unusually large seismic source ruptures up to the infrastructure location. The large number of casualties and huge economic losses observed for those earthquakes, some of which have a frequency of occurrence of hundreds or thousands of years, calls for the development of new paradigms and methodologies in order to generate better estimates, both of the seismic hazard, as well as of its consequences, and if possible, to estimate the probability distributions of their ground intensities and of their economical impacts (direct and indirect losses), this in order to implement technological and economical policies to mitigate and reduce, as much as possible, the mentioned consequences. Herewith, we propose a hybrid modeling which uses 3D seismic wave propagation (3DWP) and neural network (NN) modeling in order to estimate the seismic risk of extreme earthquakes. The 3DWP modeling is achieved by using a 3D finite difference code run in the ~100 thousands cores Blue Gene Q supercomputer of the STFC Daresbury Laboratory of UK, combined with empirical Green function (EGF) techniques and NN algorithms. In particular the 3DWP is used to generate broadband samples of the 3D wave propagation of extreme earthquakes (plausible) scenarios corresponding to synthetic seismic sources and to enlarge those samples by using feed-forward NN. We present the results of the validation of the proposed hybrid modeling for Mw 8 subduction events, and show examples of its application for the estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences, for extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquake scenarios with seismic sources in the Mexican

  5. Cancer Risk Assessment for Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, Robert C.; Curreri, Peter A. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. This is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within any given clinically normal individual. The radiation health research priorities for enabling long-duration human exploration of space were established in the 1996 NRC Report entitled "Radiation Hazards to Crews of Interplanetary Missions: Biological Issues and Research Strategies". This report emphasized that a 15-fold uncertainty in predicting radiation-induced cancer incidence must be reduced before NASA can commit humans to extended interplanetary missions. That report concluded that the great majority of this uncertainty is biologically based, while a minority is physically based due to uncertainties in radiation dosimetry and radiation transport codes. Since that report, the biologically based uncertainty has remained large, and the relatively small uncertainty associated with radiation dosimetry has increased due to the considerations raised by concepts of microdosimetry. In a practical sense, however, the additional uncertainties introduced by microdosimetry are encouraging since they are in a direction of lowered effective dose absorbed through infrequent interactions of any given cell with the high energy particle component of space radiation. The biological uncertainty in predicting cancer risk for space radiation derives from two primary facts. 1) One animal tumor study has been reported that includes a relevant spectrum of particle radiation energies, and that is the Harderian gland model in mice. Fact #1: Extension of cancer risk from animal models, and especially from a single study in an animal model, to humans is inherently uncertain. 2) One human database

  6. Reexamination of spent fuel shipment risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    COOK,J.R.; SPRUNG,JEREMY L.

    2000-04-25

    The risks associated with the transport of spent nuclear fuel by truck and rail have been reexamined and compared to results published in NUREG-O170 and the Modal Study. The full reexamination considered transport of PWR and BWR spent fuel by truck and rail in four generic Type B spent fuel casks. Because they are typical, this paper presents results only for transport of PWR spent fuel in steel-lead steel casks. Cask and spent fuel response to collision impacts and fires were evaluated by performing three-dimensional finite element and one-dimensional heat transport calculations. Accident release fractions were developed by critical review of literature data. Accident severity fractions were developed from Modal Study truck and rail accident event trees, modified to reflect the frequency of occurrence of hard and soft rock wayside route surfaces as determined by analysis of geographic data. Incident-free population doses and the population dose risks associated with the accidents that might occur during transport were calculated using the RADTRAN 5 transportation risk code. The calculated incident-free doses were compared to those published in NUREG-O170. The calculated accident dose risks were compared to dose risks calculated using NUREG-0170 and Modal Study accident source terms. The comparisons demonstrated that both of these studies made a number of very conservative assumptions about spent fuel and cask response to accident conditions, which caused their estimates of accident source terms, accident frequencies, and accident consequences to also be very conservative. The results of this study and the previous studies demonstrate that the risks associated with the shipment of spent fuel by truck or rail are very small.

  7. Updates to astronaut radiation limits: radiation risks for never-smokers.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, Francis A; Chappell, Lori J

    2011-07-01

    New epidemiology assessments of the life span study (LSS) of the atomic bomb survivors in Japan and of other exposed cohorts have been made by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the United Nations Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the Radiation Research Effects Foundation in Japan. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses a 3% risk of exposure-induced death (REID) as a basis for setting age- and gender-specific dose limits for astronauts. NASA's dose limits originate from the report of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) in the year 2000 based on analysis of older epidemiology data. We compared the results of the recent analysis of the LSS to the earlier risk projections from the NCRP. Using tissue-specific, incidence-based risk transfer from the LSS data to a U.S. population to project REID values leads to higher risk and reduced dose limits for older astronauts (>40 years) compared to earlier models that were based on mortality risk transfer. Because astronauts and many other individuals should be considered as healthy workers, including never-smokers free of lifetime use of tobacco, we considered possible variations in risks and dose limits that would occur due to the reference population used for estimates. After adjusting cancer rates to remove smoking effects, radiation risks for lung and total cancer were estimated using a mixture model, with equal weights for additive and multiplicative transfer, to be 20% and 30% lower for males and females, respectively, for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population. We recommend age- and gender-specific dose limits based on incidence-based risk transfer for never-smokers that could be used by NASA. Our analysis illustrates that gaining knowledge to improve transfer models, which entail knowledge of cancer initiation and promotion effects, could significantly reduce uncertainties in risk projections. PMID:21574861

  8. Climate-informed flood risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, T.; Devineni, N.; Lima, C.; Lall, U.

    2013-12-01

    Currently, flood risk assessments are typically tied to a peak flow event that has an associated return period and inundation extent. This method is convenient: based on a historical record of annual maximum flows, a return period can be calculated with some assumptions about the probability distribution and stationarity. It is also problematic in its stationarity assumption, reliance on relatively short records, and treating flooding as a random event disconnected from large-scale climate processes. Recognizing these limitations, we have developed a new approach to flood risk assessment that connects climate variability, precipitation dynamics, and flood modeling to estimate the likelihood of flooding. To provide more robust, long time series of precipitation, we used stochastic weather generator models to simulate the rainfall fields. The method uses a k-nearest neighbor resampling algorithm in conjunction with a non-parametric empirical copulas based simulation strategy to reproduce the temporal and spatial dynamics, respectively. Climate patterns inform the likelihood of heavy rainfall in the model. For example, ENSO affects the likelihood of wet or dry years in Australia, and this is incorporated in the model. The stochastic simulations are then used to drive a cascade of models to predict flood inundation. Runoff is generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, fed into a full kinematic wave routing model at high resolution, and the kinematic wave is used as a boundary condition to predict flood inundation using a coupled storage cell model. Combining the strengths of a stochastic model for rainfall and a physical model for flood prediction allows us to overcome the limitations of traditional flood risk assessment and provide robust estimates of flood risk.

  9. Radiation Risk Projections for Space Travel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis

    2003-01-01

    Space travelers are exposed to solar and galactic cosmic rays comprised of protons and heavy ions moving with velocities close to the speed of light. Cosmic ray heavy ions are known to produce more severe types of biomolecular damage in comparison to terrestrial forms of radiation, however the relationship between such damage and disease has not been fully elucidated. On Earth, we are protected from cosmic rays by atmospheric and magnetic shielding, and only the remnants of cosmic rays in the form of ground level muons and other secondary radiations are present. Because human epidemiology data is lacking for cosmic rays, risk projection must rely on theoretical understanding and data from experimental models exposed to space radiation using charged particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. Although the risks of cancer and other late effects from cosmic rays are currently believed to present a severe challenge to space travel, this challenge is centered on our lack of confidence in risk projections methodologies. We review biophysics and radiobiology data on the effects of the cosmic ray heavy ions, and the current methods used to project radiation risks . Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Risk projections for space travel are described using Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error di stributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor that contributes to the projection model in order to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. This analysis is applied to space mi ssion scenarios including lunar colony, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Results suggest that the number of days in space where cancer mortality risks can be assured at a 95% confidence level to be below the maximum acceptable risk for radi ation workers on Earth or the International Space Station is only on the order

  10. Technical Note: Estimating Aerosol Effects on Cloud Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.

    2013-10-09

    Estimating anthropogenic aerosol effects on the planetary energy balance through the aerosol influence on clouds using the difference in cloud radiative forcing from simulations with and without anthropogenic emissions produces estimates that are positively biased. A more representative method is suggested using the difference in cloud radiative forcing calculated with aerosol radiative effects neglected. The method also yields an aerosol radiative forcing decomposition that includes a term quantifying the impact of changes in surface albedo. The method requires only two additional diagnostic calculations: the whole-sky and clear-sky top-of-atmosphere radiative flux with aerosol radiative effects neglected.

  11. Launch Risk Acceptability Considering Uncertainty in Risk Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, J. D.; Carbon, S. L.

    2010-09-01

    Quantification of launch risk is difficult and uncertain due to the assumptions made in the modeling process and the difficulty in developing the supporting data. This means that estimates of the risks are uncertain and the decision maker must decide on the acceptability of the launch under uncertainty. This paper describes the process to quantify the uncertainty and, in the process, describes the separate roles of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in obtaining the point estimate of the casualty expectation and, ultimately, the distribution of the uncertainty in the computed casualty expectation. Tables are included of the significant sources and the nature of the contributing uncertainties. In addition, general procedures and an example are also included to describe the computational procedure. The second part of the paper discusses how the quantified uncertainty should be applied to the decision-making process. This discussion describes the procedure proposed and adopted by the Risk Committee of the Range Commander’s Council Range Safety Group which will be published in RCC 321-10 [1].

  12. Space Radiation Risk Assessment for Future Lunar Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ponomarev, Artem; Atwell, Bill; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2007-01-01

    For lunar exploration mission design, radiation risk assessments require the understanding of future space radiation environments in support of resource management decisions, operational planning, and a go/no-go decision. The future GCR flux was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which was coupled with the estimated neutron monitor rate from the Climax monitor using a statistical model. A probability distribution function for solar particle event (SPE) occurrence was formed from proton fluence measurements of SPEs occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Large proton SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice for which the fluences are greater than 2 10(exp 9) protons/sq cm for energies greater than 30 MeV, were also combined to extend the probability calculation for high level of proton fluences. The probability with which any given proton fluence level of a SPE will be exceeded during a space mission of defined duration was then calculated. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV, and representative exposure levels were analyzed at those fluences. For the development of an integrated strategy for radiation protection on lunar exploration missions, effective doses at various points inside a spacecraft were calculated with detailed geometry models representing proposed transfer vehicle and habitat concepts. Preliminary radiation risk assessments from SPE and GCR were compared for various configuration concepts of radiation shelter in exploratory-class spacecrafts.

  13. Environmental chemical mutagens and genetic risks: Lessons from radiation genetics

    SciTech Connect

    Sankaranarayanan, K.

    1996-12-31

    The last three decades have witnessed substantial progress in the development and use of a variety of in vitro and in vivo assay systems for the testing of environmental chemicals which may pose a mutagenic hazard to humans. This is also true of basic studies in chemical mutagenesis on mechanisms, DNA repair, molecular dosimetry, structure-activity relationships, etc. However, the field of quantitative evaluation of genetic risks of environmental chemicals to humans is still in it infancy. This commentary addresses the question of how our experience in estimating genetic risks of exposure to ionizing radiation can be helpful in similar endeavors with environmental chemical mutagens. 24 refs., 3 tabs.

  14. Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

    PubMed

    Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

    2010-08-01

    *Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems. PMID:20553387

  15. Software risk estimation and management techniques at JPL

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, J.; Lum, K.

    2002-01-01

    In this talk we will discuss how uncertainty has been incorporated into the JPL software model, probabilistic-based estimates, and how risk is addressed, how cost risk is currently being explored via a variety of approaches, from traditional risk lists, to detailed WBS-based risk estimates to the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool.

  16. IMPROVED RISK ESTIMATES FOR CARBON TETRACHLORIDE

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, Janet M.; Springer, David L.

    1999-12-31

    Carbon tetrachloride has been used extensively within the DOE nuclear weapons facilities. Rocky Flats was formerly the largest volume consumer of CCl4 in the United States using 5000 gallons in 1977 alone (Ripple, 1992). At the Hanford site, several hundred thousand gallons of CCl4 were discharged between 1955 and 1973 into underground cribs for storage. Levels of CCl4 in groundwater at highly contaminated sites at the Hanford facility have exceeded 8 the drinking water standard of 5 ppb by several orders of magnitude (Illman, 1993). High levels of CCl4 at these facilities represent a potential health hazard for workers conducting cleanup operations and for surrounding communities. The level of CCl4 cleanup required at these sites and associated costs are driven by current human health risk estimates, which assume that CCl4 is a genotoxic carcinogen. The overall purpose of these studies was to improve the scientific basis for assessing the health risk associated with human exposure to CCl4. Specific research objectives of this project were to: (1) compare the rates of CCl4 metabolism by rats, mice and hamsters in vivo and extrapolate those rates to man based on parallel studies on the metabolism of CCl4 by rat, mouse, hamster and human hepatic microsomes in vitro; (2) using hepatic microsome preparations, determine the role of specific cytochrome P450 isoforms in CCl4-mediated toxicity and the effects of repeated inhalation and ingestion of CCl4 on these isoforms; and (3) evaluate the toxicokinetics of inhaled CCl4 in rats, mice and hamsters. This information has been used to improve the physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for CCl4 originally developed by Paustenbach et al. (1988) and more recently revised by Thrall and Kenny (1996). Another major objective of the project was to provide scientific evidence that CCl4, like chloroform, is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing and regenerative proliferation. In

  17. Nuclear medicine dose equivalent a method for determination of radiation risk

    SciTech Connect

    Huda, W.

    1986-12-01

    Conventional nuclear medicine dosimetry involves specifying individual organ doses. The difficulties that can arise with this approach to radiation dosimetry are discussed. An alternative scheme is described that is based on the ICRP effective dose equivalent, H/sub E/, and which is a direct estimate of the average radiation risk to the patient. The mean value of H/sub E/ for seven common /sup 99m/Tc nuclear medicine procedures is 0.46 rem and the average radiation risk from this level of exposure is estimated to be comparable to the risk from smoking approx. 28 packs of cigarettes or driving approx. 1300 miles.

  18. Radiation Risk and the Mission to Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durante, Marco

    2014-06-01

    Space radiation represents a major showstopper for human space exploration. While solar particle events and trapped protons can be effectively shielded, high-energy nuclei in the galactic cosmic radiation have a high biological effectiveness and cannot be shielded with the limited mass available on a spacecraft. A mission to Mars has been recently proposed (Inspiration Mars), consisting of a flyby with a crew of two astronauts starting in 2018 and lasting 501 days. Based on the recent measurements of the galactic cosmic ray dose on the Mars Science Laboratory and on the most recent update on the risk coefficients from the Atomic bomb survivors, it can be shown that the mission to Mars with current technology may expose the crew to a significant cancer risk.

  19. Review of NASA approach to space radiation risk assessments for Mars exploration.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, Francis A

    2015-02-01

    Long duration space missions present unique radiation protection challenges due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which includes high charge and energy particles and other highly ionizing radiation such as neutrons. Based on a recommendation by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, a 3% lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for cancer has been used as a basis for risk limitation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for low-Earth orbit missions. NASA has developed a risk-based approach to radiation exposure limits that accounts for individual factors (age, gender, and smoking history) and assesses the uncertainties in risk estimates. New radiation quality factors with associated probability distribution functions to represent the quality factor's uncertainty have been developed based on track structure models and recent radiobiology data for high charge and energy particles. The current radiation dose limits are reviewed for spaceflight and the various qualitative and quantitative uncertainties that impact the risk of exposure-induced death estimates using the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model. NSCR estimates of the number of "safe days" in deep space to be within exposure limits and risk estimates for a Mars exploration mission are described. PMID:25551493

  20. Is cancer risk of radiation workers larger than expected?

    PubMed Central

    Jacob, P; Rühm, W; Walsh, L; Blettner, M; Hammer, G; Zeeb, H

    2009-01-01

    Occupational exposures to ionising radiation mainly occur at low-dose rates and may accumulate effective doses of up to several hundred milligray. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the evidence of cancer risks from such low-dose-rate, moderate-dose (LDRMD) exposures. Our literature search for primary epidemiological studies on cancer incidence and mortality risks from LDRMD exposures included publications from 2002 to 2007, and an update of the UK National Registry for Radiation Workers study. For each (LDRMD) study we calculated the risk for the same types of cancer among the atomic bomb survivors with the same gender proportion and matched quantities for dose, mean age attained and mean age at exposure. A combined estimator of the ratio of the excess relative risk per dose from the LDRMD study to the corresponding value for the atomic bomb survivors was 1.21 (90% CI 0.51 to 1.90). The present analysis does not confirm that the cancer risk per dose for LDRMD exposures is lower than for the atomic bomb survivors. This result challenges the cancer risk values currently assumed for occupational exposures. PMID:19570756

  1. Is cancer risk of radiation workers larger than expected?

    PubMed

    Jacob, P; Rühm, W; Walsh, L; Blettner, M; Hammer, G; Zeeb, H

    2009-12-01

    Occupational exposures to ionising radiation mainly occur at low-dose rates and may accumulate effective doses of up to several hundred milligray. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the evidence of cancer risks from such low-dose-rate, moderate-dose (LDRMD) exposures. Our literature search for primary epidemiological studies on cancer incidence and mortality risks from LDRMD exposures included publications from 2002 to 2007, and an update of the UK National Registry for Radiation Workers study. For each (LDRMD) study we calculated the risk for the same types of cancer among the atomic bomb survivors with the same gender proportion and matched quantities for dose, mean age attained and mean age at exposure. A combined estimator of the ratio of the excess relative risk per dose from the LDRMD study to the corresponding value for the atomic bomb survivors was 1.21 (90% CI 0.51 to 1.90). The present analysis does not confirm that the cancer risk per dose for LDRMD exposures is lower than for the atomic bomb survivors. This result challenges the cancer risk values currently assumed for occupational exposures. PMID:19570756

  2. Ionizing radiation and cancer risk: evidence from epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Ron, E

    1998-11-01

    Epidemiological studies provide the primary data on the carcinogenic effects of radiation in humans. Much of what is known has come from studies of the atomic bomb survivors, and to a lesser extent from patients receiving radiotherapy. These studies demonstrate that exposure to moderate to high doses of radiation increases the risk of cancer in most organs. For all solid cancers combined, cancers of the thyroid, breast and lung, and leukemia, risk estimates are fairly precise, and associations have been found at relatively low doses (<0.2 Gy). Associations between radiation and cancers of the salivary glands, stomach, colon, bladder, ovary, central nervous system and skin have also been reported, but the relationships are not as well quantified. Associations between radiation and cancers of the liver and esophagus, and to a lesser extent multiple myeloma and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, have been reported in a few studies, but results are inconsistent. Chronic lymphocytic leukemia, Hodgkin's disease, and cancers of the pancreas, prostate, testis and cervix have rarely been linked to radiation exposure. A linear no-threshold model adequately describes the dose-response relationship for solid cancers, although at extremely high doses the risk appears to flatten out. Because few populations have been followed until the end of life, the temporal patterns of risk are not completely known. An increased risk, however, does continue for several decades. In contrast, radiation-related leukemias begin to occur shortly (2-3 years) after exposure and, at least in the A-bomb survivors, a linear-quadratic dose response seems to fit the data better than a pure linear model. Radiation does not act entirely in isolation. It can interact with other carcinogens, e.g. tobacco or chemotherapeutic agents, and with host factors such as age at exposure, gender or reproductive history. Interactions with medical interventions or with certain heritable mutations have also been suggested. While

  3. NEED FOR INDIVIDUAL CANCER RISK ESTIMATES IN X-RAY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE IMAGING.

    PubMed

    Mattsson, Sören

    2016-06-01

    To facilitate the justification of an X-ray or nuclear medicine investigation and for informing patients, it is desirable that the individual patient's radiation dose and potential cancer risk can be prospectively assessed and documented. The current dose-reporting is based on effective dose, which ignores body size and does not reflect the strong dependence of risk on the age at exposure. Risk estimations should better be done through individual organ dose assessments, which need careful exposure characterisation as well as anatomical description of the individual patient. In nuclear medicine, reference biokinetic models should also be replaced with models describing individual physiological states and biokinetics. There is a need to adjust population-based cancer risk estimates to the possible risk of leukaemia and solid tumours for the individual depending on age and gender. The article summarises reasons for individual cancer risk estimates and gives examples of methods and results of such estimates. PMID:26994092

  4. ESTIMATING SOLAR RADIATION EXPOSURE IN WETLANDS USING RADIATION MODELS, FIELD DATA, AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This seminar will describe development of methods for the estimation of solar radiation doses in wetlands. The methodology presents a novel approach to incorporating aspects of solar radiation dosimetry that have historically received limited attention. These include effects of a...

  5. Main Sources and Doses of Space Radiation during Mars Missions and Total Radiation Risk for Cosmonauts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitrikas, Victor; Aleksandr, Shafirkin; Shurshakov, Vyacheslav

    This work contains calculation data of generalized doses and dose equivalents in critical organs and tissues of cosmonauts produces by galactic cosmic rays (GCR), solar cosmic rays (SCR) and the Earth’s radiation belts (ERB) that will impact crewmembers during a flight to Mars, while staying in the landing module and on the Martian surface, and during the return to Earth. Also calculated total radiation risk values during whole life of cosmonauts after the flight are presented. Radiation risk (RR) calculations are performed on the basis of a radiobiological model of radiation damage to living organisms, while taking into account reparation processes acting during continuous long-term exposure at various dose rates and under acute recurrent radiation impact. The calculations of RR are performed for crewmembers of various ages implementing a flight to Mars over 2 - 3 years in maximum and minimum of the solar cycle. The total carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic RR and possible life-span shortening are estimated on the basis of a model of the radiation death probability for mammals. This model takes into account the decrease in compensatory reserve of an organism as well as the increase in mortality rate and descent of the subsequent lifetime of the cosmonaut. The analyzed dose distributions in the shielding and body areas are applied to making model calculations of tissue equivalent spherical and anthropomorphic phantoms.

  6. Radiation Dose Estimation for Pediatric Patients Undergoing Cardiac Catheterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chu

    Patients undergoing cardiac catheterization are potentially at risk of radiation-induced health effects from the interventional fluoroscopic X-ray imaging used throughout the clinical procedure. The amount of radiation exposure is highly dependent on the complexity of the procedure and the level of optimization in imaging parameters applied by the clinician. For cardiac catheterization, patient radiation dosimetry, for key organs as well as whole-body effective, is challenging due to the lack of fixed imaging protocols, unlike other common X-ray based imaging modalities. Pediatric patients are at a greater risk compared to adults due to their greater cellular radio-sensitivities as well as longer remaining life-expectancy following the radiation exposure. In terms of radiation dosimetry, they are often more challenging due to greater variation in body size, which often triggers a wider range of imaging parameters in modern imaging systems with automatic dose rate modulation. The overall objective of this dissertation was to develop a comprehensive method of radiation dose estimation for pediatric patients undergoing cardiac catheterization. In this dissertation, the research is divided into two main parts: the Physics Component and the Clinical Component. A proof-of-principle study focused on two patient age groups (Newborn and Five-year-old), one popular biplane imaging system, and the clinical practice of two pediatric cardiologists at one large academic medical center. The Physics Component includes experiments relevant to the physical measurement of patient organ dose using high-sensitivity MOSFET dosimeters placed in anthropomorphic pediatric phantoms. First, the three-dimensional angular dependence of MOSFET detectors in scatter medium under fluoroscopic irradiation was characterized. A custom-made spherical scatter phantom was used to measure response variations in three-dimensional angular orientations. The results were to be used as angular dependence

  7. How reliable are the risk estimates for X-ray examinations in forensic age estimations? A safety update.

    PubMed

    Ramsthaler, F; Proschek, P; Betz, W; Verhoff, M A

    2009-05-01

    Possible biological side effects of exposure to X-rays are stochastic effects such as carcinogenesis and genetic alterations. In recent years, a number of new studies have been published about the special cancer risk that children may suffer from diagnostic X-rays. Children and adolescents who constitute many of the probands in forensic age-estimation proceedings are considerably more sensitive to the carcinogenic risks of ionizing radiation than adults. Established doses for X-ray examinations in forensic age estimations vary from less than 0.1 microSv (left hand X-ray) up to more than 800 microSv (computed tomography). Computed tomography in children, as a relatively high-dose procedure, is of particular interest because the doses involved are near to the lower limit of the doses observed and analyzed in A-bombing survivor studies. From these studies, direct epidemiological data exist concerning the lifetime cancer risk. Since there is no medical indication for forensic age examinations, it should be stressed that only safe methods are generally acceptable. This paper reviews current knowledge on cancer risks associated with diagnostic radiation and aims to help forensic experts, dentists, and pediatricians evaluate the risk from radiation when using X-rays in age-estimation procedures. PMID:19153756

  8. Radiobiological foundation of crew radiation risk for Mars mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandr, Shafirkin; Grigoriev, Yurj

    The results of a comprehensive clinico-physiological study of 250 dogs after 22 hours per day chronic exposure to gamma-radiation throughout their life are presented. The exposure duration was 3 and 6 years. The dose rate varied between 25 and 150 cSv/year to simulate galactic cosmic ray dose of crew members during mars mission. Several groups of the dogs received an additional acute dose of 10 and 50 cSv during a day three times per year to simulate stochastic irradiation caused by solar cosmic rays. Data on the status of regulatory systems of organism, exchange processes dynamics, organism reaction on additional functional loads are also presented. Organism reaction and dynamics of kinetic relations are considered in detail for most radiosensitive and regenerating tissue systems of the organism, namely, bloodforming system and spermatogenic epithelium. The results on life span reduction of the dogs and dog race characteristics after the radiation exposure are discussed. Based on the results obtained in this study and in model experiments realized with big amount of small laboratory animals that were exposed to a wide dose range, using other published data, mathematical models were developed, e. g. a model of radiation damage forming as dependent on time with taking into account recovery processes, and a model of radiation mortality rate of mammals. Based on these models and analysis of radiation environment behind various shielding on the route to Mars, crew radiation risk was calculated for space missions of various durations. Total radiation risk values for cosmonaut lifetime after the missions were also estimated together with expected life span reduction.

  9. Radiobiological foundation of crew radiation risk for mars mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafirkin, A.

    The results of a comprehensive clinico-physiological study of 250 dogs after 22 hours per day chronic exposure to gamma -radiation throughout their life are presented. The exposure duration was 3 and 6 years. The dose rate varied between 25 and 150 cSv/year to simulate galactic cosmic ray dose of crew members during mars mission. Several groups of the dogs received an additional acute dose of 10 and 50 cSv during a day three times per year to simulate stochastic irradiation caused by solar cosmic rays. Data on the status of regulatory systems of organism, exchange processes dynamics, organism reaction on additional functional loads are also presented. Organism reaction and dynamics of kinetic relations are considered in detail for most radiosensitive and regenerating tissue systems of the organism, namely, bloodforming system and spermatogenic epithelium. The results on life span reduction of the dogs and dog race characteristics after the radiation exposure are discussed. Based on the results obtained in this study and in model experiments realized with big amount of small laboratory animals that were exposed to a wide dose range, using other published data, mathematical models were developed, e. g. a model of radiation damage forming as dependent on time with taking into account recovery processes, and a model of radiation mortality rate of mammals. Based on these models and analysis of radiation environment behind various shielding on the route to Mars, crew radiation risk was calculated for space missions of various durations. Total radiation risk values for cosmonaut lifetime after the missions were also estimated together with expected life span reduction.

  10. DNA Damage Signals and Space Radiation Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Space radiation is comprised of high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei and protons. The initial DNA damage from HZE nuclei is qualitatively different from X-rays or gamma rays due to the clustering of damage sites which increases their complexity. Clustering of DNA damage occurs on several scales. First there is clustering of single strand breaks (SSB), double strand breaks (DSB), and base damage within a few to several hundred base pairs (bp). A second form of damage clustering occurs on the scale of a few kbp where several DSB?s may be induced by single HZE nuclei. These forms of damage clusters do not occur at low to moderate doses of X-rays or gamma rays thus presenting new challenges to DNA repair systems. We review current knowledge of differences that occur in DNA repair pathways for different types of radiation and possible relationships to mutations, chromosomal aberrations and cancer risks.

  11. Radiation risks of medical imaging: separating fact from fantasy.

    PubMed

    Hendee, William R; O'Connor, Michael K

    2012-08-01

    During the past few years, several articles have appeared in the scientific literature that predict thousands of cancers and cancer deaths per year in the U.S. population caused by medical imaging procedures that use ionizing radiation. These predictions are computed by multiplying small and highly speculative risk factors by large populations of patients to yield impressive numbers of "cancer victims." The risk factors are acquired from the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII report without attention to the caveats about their use presented in the BEIR VII report. The principal data source for the risk factors is the ongoing study of survivors of the Japanese atomic explosions, a population of individuals that is greatly different from patients undergoing imaging procedures. For the purpose of risk estimation, doses to patients are converted to effective doses, even though the International Commission on Radiological Protection warns against the use of effective dose for epidemiologic studies or for estimation of individual risks. To extrapolate cancer incidence to doses of a few millisieverts from data greater than 100 mSv, a linear no-threshold model is used, even though substantial radiobiological and human exposure data imply that it is not an appropriate model. The predictions of cancers and cancer deaths are sensationalized in electronic and print public media, resulting in anxiety and fear about medical imaging among patients and parents. Not infrequently, patients are anxious about a scheduled imaging procedure because of articles they have read in the public media. In some cases, medical imaging examinations may be delayed or deferred as a consequence, resulting in a much greater risk to patients than that associated with imaging examinations. © RSNA, 2012. PMID:22821690

  12. Personalized Cancer Risk Assessments for Space Radiation Exposures.

    PubMed

    Locke, Paul A; Weil, Michael M

    2016-01-01

    Individuals differ in their susceptibility to radiogenic cancers, and there is evidence that this inter-individual susceptibility extends to HZE ion-induced carcinogenesis. Three components of individual risk: sex, age at exposure, and prior tobacco use, are already incorporated into the NASA cancer risk model used to determine safe days in space for US astronauts. Here, we examine other risk factors that could potentially be included in risk calculations. These include personal and family medical history, the presence of pre-malignant cells that could undergo malignant transformation as a consequence of radiation exposure, the results from phenotypic assays of radiosensitivity, heritable genetic polymorphisms associated with radiosensitivity, and postflight monitoring. Inclusion of these additional risk or risk reduction factors has the potential to personalize risk estimates for individual astronauts and could influence the determination of safe days in space. We consider how this type of assessment could be used and explore how the provisions of the federal Genetic Information Non-discrimination Act could impact the collection, dissemination and use of this information by NASA. PMID:26942127

  13. Personalized Cancer Risk Assessments for Space Radiation Exposures

    PubMed Central

    Locke, Paul A.; Weil, Michael M.

    2016-01-01

    Individuals differ in their susceptibility to radiogenic cancers, and there is evidence that this inter-individual susceptibility extends to HZE ion-induced carcinogenesis. Three components of individual risk: sex, age at exposure, and prior tobacco use, are already incorporated into the NASA cancer risk model used to determine safe days in space for US astronauts. Here, we examine other risk factors that could potentially be included in risk calculations. These include personal and family medical history, the presence of pre-malignant cells that could undergo malignant transformation as a consequence of radiation exposure, the results from phenotypic assays of radiosensitivity, heritable genetic polymorphisms associated with radiosensitivity, and postflight monitoring. Inclusion of these additional risk or risk reduction factors has the potential to personalize risk estimates for individual astronauts and could influence the determination of safe days in space. We consider how this type of assessment could be used and explore how the provisions of the federal Genetic Information Non-discrimination Act could impact the collection, dissemination and use of this information by NASA. PMID:26942127

  14. Estimating the Radiation Dose to the Fetus in Prophylactic Internal Iliac Artery Balloon Occlusion: Three Cases

    PubMed Central

    Kai, Kentaro; Hamada, Tomohiro; Yuge, Akitoshi; Kiyosue, Hiro; Nishida, Yoshihiro; Nasu, Kaei; Narahara, Hisashi

    2015-01-01

    Background. Although radiation exposure is of great concern to expecting patients, little information is available on the fetal radiation dose associated with prophylactic internal iliac artery balloon occlusion (IIABO). Here we estimated the fetal radiation dose associated with prophylactic IIABO in Caesarean section (CS). Cases. We report our experience with the IIABO procedure in three consecutive patients with suspected placenta previa/accreta. Fetal radiation dose measurements were conducted prior to each CS by using an anthropomorphic phantom. Based on the simulated value, we calculated the fetal radiation dose as the absorbed dose. We found that the fetal radiation doses ranged from 12.88 to 31.6 mGy. The fetal radiation dose during the prophylactic IIABOs did not exceed 50 mGy. Conclusion. The IIABO procedure could result in a very small increase in the risk of harmful effects to the fetus. PMID:26180648

  15. RADIATION DOSE IN PAEDIATRIC COMPUTED TOMOGRAPHY: RISKS AND BENEFITS

    PubMed Central

    Ogbole, G.I.

    2010-01-01

    Computed tomography (CT) is a powerful tool for the accurate and effective diagnosis and treatment of a variety of conditions because it allows high-resolution three-dimensional images to be acquired very quickly. However as the number of CT procedures performed globally have continued to increase; with growing concerns about patient protection. Currently, no system is in place to track patient doses and the lifetime cumulative dose from medical sources. The widespread use of CT even in developing countries has raised questions regarding the possible threat to public health especially in children. The best available risk estimates suggest that paediatric CT will result in significantly increased lifetime radiation risk over adult CT. Studies have shown that lower milliampere-second (mAs) settings can be used for children without significant loss of information. Although the risk–benefit balance is still strongly tilted toward benefit, there is still need for caution. Furthermore since the frequency of paediatric CT examinations is rapidly increasing, and estimates suggest that quantitative lifetime radiation risks for children are not negligible, efforts should be made toward more active reduction of CT exposure settings in paediatric patients. This article hopes to address this concerns and draw attention to the fact that children are not ‘small adults ’ and should therefore be treated differently. PMID:25161479

  16. Analysis of Radiation Pneumonitis Risk Using a Generalized Lyman Model

    SciTech Connect

    Tucker, Susan L. Liu, H. Helen; Liao Zhongxing; Wei Xiong; Wang Shulian; Jin Hekun; Komaki, Ritsuko; Martel, Mary K.; Mohan, Radhe

    2008-10-01

    Purpose: To introduce a version of the Lyman normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model adapted to incorporate censored time-to-toxicity data and clinical risk factors and to apply the generalized model to analysis of radiation pneumonitis (RP) risk. Methods and Materials: Medical records and radiation treatment plans were reviewed retrospectively for 576 patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated with radiotherapy. The time to severe (Grade {>=}3) RP was computed, with event times censored at last follow-up for patients not experiencing this endpoint. The censored time-to-toxicity data were analyzed using the standard and generalized Lyman models with patient smoking status taken into account. Results: The generalized Lyman model with patient smoking status taken into account produced NTCP estimates up to 27 percentage points different from the model based on dose-volume factors alone. The generalized model also predicted that 8% of the expected cases of severe RP were unobserved because of censoring. The estimated volume parameter for lung was not significantly different from n = 1, corresponding to mean lung dose. Conclusions: NTCP models historically have been based solely on dose-volume effects and binary (yes/no) toxicity data. Our results demonstrate that inclusion of nondosimetric risk factors and censored time-to-event data can markedly affect outcome predictions made using NTCP models.

  17. Radiation dose estimates for copper-64 citrate in man

    SciTech Connect

    Crook, J.E.; Carlton, J.E.; Stabin, M.; Watson, E.

    1985-01-01

    Tumor imaging agents suitable for use with positron emission tomographs are constantly sought. We have performed studies with animal-tumor-bearing models that have demonstrated the rapid uptake of copper-64. The radiation dose estimates for man indicate that the intravenous administration of 7.0 mCi would result in radiation doses to the kidney of 9.8 to 10.5 rads with other organs receiving substantially less radiation. 5 refs., 3 tabs.

  18. The over-estimation of risk in pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Monique; Pennell, Craig E; McLean, Neil J; Oddy, Wendy H; Newnham, John P

    2011-06-01

    The concept of risk is especially salient to obstetric care. Unknown factors can still be responsible for peri-natal morbidity and mortality in circumstances that appeared to present little risk, while perfectly healthy infants are born in high-risk circumstances: a contradiction that patients and providers struggle with on a daily basis. With such contradictions comes the potential for the over-estimation of risk during pregnancy in order to assure a positive outcome. Understanding and addressing the estimation of risk during pregnancy requires acknowledging the history of obstetric risk in addition to understanding risk-related psychological theory. A relationship of trust between provider and patient is vital in addressing risk over-estimation, as is encouraging the development of self-efficacy in patients. Ultimately obstetric care is complex and efforts to avoid pre-natal risk exposure based on heightened perceptions of threat may do more harm than the perceived threat itself. PMID:21480770

  19. A Method for Estimating the Probability of Floating Gate Prompt Charge Loss in a Radiation Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edmonds, L. D.

    2016-01-01

    Because advancing technology has been producing smaller structures in electronic circuits, the floating gates in modern flash memories are becoming susceptible to prompt charge loss from ionizing radiation environments found in space. A method for estimating the risk of a charge-loss event is given.

  20. A Method for Estimating the Probability of Floating Gate Prompt Charge Loss in a Radiation Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edmonds, L. D.

    2016-01-01

    Since advancing technology has been producing smaller structures in electronic circuits, the floating gates in modern flash memories are becoming susceptible to prompt charge loss from ionizing radiation environments found in space. A method for estimating the risk of a charge-loss event is given.

  1. An inductive assessment of radiation risks in space.

    PubMed

    Dicello, J F; Zaider, M; Varma, M N

    1994-10-01

    Procedures for the assessment of risks or vulnerabilities from radiation in space are evaluated in terms of model-independent inductive approaches. The reliability of risks calculated for space applications on the basis of accelerator-based physical and biological data is examined from a microdosimetric perspective. Probability distributions for energy deposition in biologically significant sites extend over several decades in lineal energy even for monoenergetic high-energy particles of relatively high atomic number. Because the response depends on a large number of variables and because of the difficulty of incorporating all such factors into calculations, a precise correlation between a physical descriptor of the field and observed effects in space is not feasible. For the same reasons, it is equally difficult to estimate the accuracies of such risk assessments. We use recently published microdosimetric spectra for HZE particles and biological weighting functions, including those derived from biological measurements with maximum entropy techniques, to illustrate some problems associated with the evaluations of risks from radiation fields in space. PMID:11540034

  2. The communication of the radiation risk from CT in relation to its clinical benefit in the era of personalized medicine: part 1: the radiation risk from CT.

    PubMed

    Westra, Sjirk J

    2014-10-01

    The theory of radiation carcinogenesis has been debated for decades. Most estimates of the radiation risks from CT have been based on extrapolations from the lifespan follow-up study of atomic bomb survivors and on follow-up studies after therapeutic radiation, using the linear no-threshold theory. Based on this, many population-based projections of induction of future cancers by CT have been published that should not be used to estimate the risk to an individual because of their large margin of error. This has changed recently with the publication of three large international cohort follow-up studies, which link observed cancers to CT scans received in childhood. A fourth ongoing multi-country study in Europe is expected to have enough statistical power to address the limitations of the prior studies. The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) report released in 2013 specifically addresses variability in response of the pediatric population exposed to ionizing radiation. Most authorities now conclude that there is enough evidence to link future cancers to the radiation exposure from a single CT scan in childhood but that cancer risk estimates for individuals must be based on the specifics of exposure, age at exposure and absorbed dose to certain tissues. Generalizations are not appropriate, and the communication of the CT risk to individuals should be conducted within the framework of personalized medicine. PMID:25304714

  3. Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer May Carry Certain Risks

    MedlinePlus

    ... nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_157587.html Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer May Carry Certain Risks ... 3, 2016 THURSDAY, March 3, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Radiation treatment for prostate cancer may put men at ...

  4. The carcinogenic risks of low-LET and high-LET ionizing radiations. Revision

    SciTech Connect

    Fabrikant, J.I. |

    1991-08-01

    This report presents a discussion on risk from ionizing radiations to human populations. Important new information on human beings has come mainly from further follow-up of existing epidemiological studies, notably the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and the ankylosing spondylitis patients; from new epidemiological surveys, such as the patients treated for cancer of the uterine cervix; and from combined surveys, including workers exposed in underground mines. Since the numerous and complex differences among the different study populations introduce factors that influence the risk estimates derived in ways that are not completely understood, it is not clear how to combine the different risk estimates obtained. These factors involve complex biological and physical variables distributed over time. Because such carcinogenic effects occur too infrequently to be demonstrated at low doses, the risks of low-dose radiation can be estimated only by interpolation from observations at high doses on the basis of theoretical concepts, mathematical models and available empirical evidence, primarily the epidemiological surveys of large populations exposed to ionizing radiation. In spite of a considerable amount of research, only recently has there has been efforts to apply the extensive laboratory data in animals to define the dose-incidence relationship in the low dose region. There simply are insufficient data in the epidemiological studies of large human populations to estimate risk coefficients directly from exposure to low doses. The risk estimates for the carcinogenic effects of radiation have been, in the past, somewhat low and reassessment of the numerical values is now necessary.

  5. The carcinogenic risks of low-LET and high-LET ionizing radiations

    SciTech Connect

    Fabrikant, J.I. California Univ., San Francisco, CA )

    1991-08-01

    This report presents a discussion on risk from ionizing radiations to human populations. Important new information on human beings has come mainly from further follow-up of existing epidemiological studies, notably the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and the ankylosing spondylitis patients; from new epidemiological surveys, such as the patients treated for cancer of the uterine cervix; and from combined surveys, including workers exposed in underground mines. Since the numerous and complex differences among the different study populations introduce factors that influence the risk estimates derived in ways that are not completely understood, it is not clear how to combine the different risk estimates obtained. These factors involve complex biological and physical variables distributed over time. Because such carcinogenic effects occur too infrequently to be demonstrated at low doses, the risks of low-dose radiation can be estimated only by interpolation from observations at high doses on the basis of theoretical concepts, mathematical models and available empirical evidence, primarily the epidemiological surveys of large populations exposed to ionizing radiation. In spite of a considerable amount of research, only recently has there has been efforts to apply the extensive laboratory data in animals to define the dose-incidence relationship in the low dose region. There simply are insufficient data in the epidemiological studies of large human populations to estimate risk coefficients directly from exposure to low doses. The risk estimates for the carcinogenic effects of radiation have been, in the past, somewhat low and reassessment of the numerical values is now necessary.

  6. Observationally constrained estimates of carbonaceous aerosol radiative forcing.

    PubMed

    Chung, Chul E; Ramanathan, V; Decremer, Damien

    2012-07-17

    Carbonaceous aerosols (CA) emitted by fossil and biomass fuels consist of black carbon (BC), a strong absorber of solar radiation, and organic matter (OM). OM scatters as well as absorbs solar radiation. The absorbing component of OM, which is ignored in most climate models, is referred to as brown carbon (BrC). Model estimates of the global CA radiative forcing range from 0 to 0.7 Wm(-2), to be compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimate for the pre-Industrial to the present net radiative forcing of about 1.6 Wm(-2). This study provides a model-independent, observationally based estimate of the CA direct radiative forcing. Ground-based aerosol network data is integrated with field data and satellite-based aerosol observations to provide a decadal (2001 through 2009) global view of the CA optical properties and direct radiative forcing. The estimated global CA direct radiative effect is about 0.75 Wm(-2) (0.5 to 1.0). This study identifies the global importance of BrC, which is shown to contribute about 20% to 550-nm CA solar absorption globally. Because of the inclusion of BrC, the net effect of OM is close to zero and the CA forcing is nearly equal to that of BC. The CA direct radiative forcing is estimated to be about 0.65 (0.5 to about 0.8) Wm(-2), thus comparable to or exceeding that by methane. Caused in part by BrC absorption, CAs have a net warming effect even over open biomass-burning regions in Africa and the Amazon. PMID:22753522

  7. Risk of cancer after low doses of ionising radiation: retrospective cohort study in 15 countries

    PubMed Central

    Cardis, E; Vrijheid, M; Blettner, M; Gilbert, E; Hakama, M; Hill, C; Howe, G; Kaldor, J; Muirhead, C R; Schubauer-Berigan, M; Yoshimura, T; Bermann, F; Cowper, G; Fix, J; Hacker, C; Heinmiller, B; Marshall, M; Thierry-Chef, I; Utterback, D; Ahn, Y-O; Amoros, E; Ashmore, P; Auvinen, A; Bae, J-M; Solano, J Bernar; Biau, A; Combalot, E; Deboodt, P; Sacristan, A Diez; Eklof, M; Engels, H; Engholm, G; Gulis, G; Habib, R; Holan, K; Hyvonen, H; Kerekes, A; Kurtinaitis, J; Malker, H; Martuzzi, M; Mastauskas, A; Monnet, A; Moser, M; Pearce, M S; Richardson, D B; Rodriguez-Artalejo, F; Rogel, A; Tardy, H; Telle-Lamberton, M; Turai, I; Usel, M; Veress, K

    2005-01-01

    Objectives To provide direct estimates of risk of cancer after protracted low doses of ionising radiation and to strengthen the scientific basis of radiation protection standards for environmental, occupational, and medical diagnostic exposures. Design Multinational retrospective cohort study of cancer mortality. Setting Cohorts of workers in the nuclear industry in 15 countries. Participants 407 391 workers individually monitored for external radiation with a total follow-up of 5.2 million person years. Main outcome measurements Estimates of excess relative risks per sievert (Sv) of radiation dose for mortality from cancers other than leukaemia and from leukaemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, the main causes of death considered by radiation protection authorities. Results The excess relative risk for cancers other than leukaemia was 0.97 per Sv, 95% confidence interval 0.14 to 1.97. Analyses of causes of death related or unrelated to smoking indicate that, although confounding by smoking may be present, it is unlikely to explain all of this increased risk. The excess relative risk for leukaemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia was 1.93 per Sv (< 0 to 8.47). On the basis of these estimates, 1-2% of deaths from cancer among workers in this cohort may be attributable to radiation. Conclusions These estimates, from the largest study of nuclear workers ever conducted, are higher than, but statistically compatible with, the risk estimates used for current radiation protection standards. The results suggest that there is a small excess risk of cancer, even at the low doses and dose rates typically received by nuclear workers in this study. PMID:15987704

  8. Estimation of Radiated Seismic Energy from Teleseismic P Waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiuchi, R.; Mori, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake radiated energy is a fundamental parameter for understanding source physics. Using teleseismic waveforms, we can estimate the radiated energy for a wide range of focal mechanisms and tectonic setting. We are especially interested in studying the apparent stress (rigidity multiplied by the ratio of radiated energy to seismic moment) of strike-slip earthquakes in the oceanic lithosphere, for which there are often high reported values (Choy and McGarr, 2002). Estimates of radiated energy from teleseismic P waves can be unstable, because take-off angles from the source are often close to nodes in the focal mechanisms, which can cause large variations in the estimated values of the apparent stress. In this study, we use only P waves for the teleseismic waveform, because of the strong attenuation of teleseismic S waves and interference with other phases. We use data recorded by teleseismic stations (epicentral distances of 30 to 90deg) recorded on the GSN network and focal mechanisms published by USGS and Global CMT Project. For the teleseismic waveforms, we need to account for the radiation pattern of the direct P and depth phase, pP and sP (Boatwright and Choy, 1986). For strike-slip events with where many data are close to nodes in the focal mechanisms, this is a large and often unstable correction. We use an improved method which takes into account a range of values for the strike, dip and rake angles. Also, we use station corrections determined from a selected set of well determined events. We show the result of estimated radiated seismic energy for 188 recent earthquakes (>Mw 7.0, since 2000 ). We discuss the differences of the radiated energy as a function of focal mechanisms, and oceanic/continental sources. Fig. Radiated seismic energy and correction for radiation pattern calculated using a range of focal mechanisms.

  9. Preoperative Evaluation: Estimation of Pulmonary Risk.

    PubMed

    Lakshminarasimhachar, Anand; Smetana, Gerald W

    2016-03-01

    Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) are common after major non-thoracic surgery and associated with significant morbidity and high cost of care. A number of risk factors are strong predictors of PPCs. The overall goal of the preoperative pulmonary evaluation is to identify these potential, patient and procedure-related risks and optimize the health of the patients before surgery. A thorough clinical examination supported by appropriate laboratory tests will help guide the clinician to provide optimal perioperative care. PMID:26927740

  10. Stochastic Effects in Computational Biology of Space Radiation Cancer Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Pluth, Janis; Harper, Jane; O'Neill, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Estimating risk from space radiation poses important questions on the radiobiology of protons and heavy ions. We are considering systems biology models to study radiation induced repair foci (RIRF) at low doses, in which less than one-track on average transverses the cell, and the subsequent DNA damage processing and signal transduction events. Computational approaches for describing protein regulatory networks coupled to DNA and oxidative damage sites include systems of differential equations, stochastic equations, and Monte-Carlo simulations. We review recent developments in the mathematical description of protein regulatory networks and possible approaches to radiation effects simulation. These include robustness, which states that regulatory networks maintain their functions against external and internal perturbations due to compensating properties of redundancy and molecular feedback controls, and modularity, which leads to general theorems for considering molecules that interact through a regulatory mechanism without exchange of matter leading to a block diagonal reduction of the connecting pathways. Identifying rate-limiting steps, robustness, and modularity in pathways perturbed by radiation damage are shown to be valid techniques for reducing large molecular systems to realistic computer simulations. Other techniques studied are the use of steady-state analysis, and the introduction of composite molecules or rate-constants to represent small collections of reactants. Applications of these techniques to describe spatial and temporal distributions of RIRF and cell populations following low dose irradiation are described.

  11. How safe is safe enough? Radiation risk for a human mission to Mars.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, Francis A; Kim, Myung-Hee Y; Chappell, Lori J; Huff, Janice L

    2013-01-01

    Astronauts on a mission to Mars would be exposed for up to 3 years to galactic cosmic rays (GCR)--made up of high-energy protons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei. GCR exposure rate increases about three times as spacecraft venture out of Earth orbit into deep space where protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body are lost. NASA's radiation standard limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk estimate. Fatal cancer risk has been considered the dominant risk for GCR, however recent epidemiological analysis of radiation risks for circulatory diseases allow for predictions of REID for circulatory diseases to be included with cancer risk predictions for space missions. Using NASA's models of risks and uncertainties, we predicted that central estimates for radiation induced mortality and morbidity could exceed 5% and 10% with upper 95% CI near 10% and 20%, respectively for a Mars mission. Additional risks to the central nervous system (CNS) and qualitative differences in the biological effects of GCR compared to terrestrial radiation may significantly increase these estimates, and will require new knowledge to evaluate. PMID:24146746

  12. How Safe Is Safe Enough? Radiation Risk for a Human Mission to Mars

    PubMed Central

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.; Huff, Janice L.

    2013-01-01

    Astronauts on a mission to Mars would be exposed for up to 3 years to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) — made up of high-energy protons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei. GCR exposure rate increases about three times as spacecraft venture out of Earth orbit into deep space where protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body are lost. NASA's radiation standard limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk estimate. Fatal cancer risk has been considered the dominant risk for GCR, however recent epidemiological analysis of radiation risks for circulatory diseases allow for predictions of REID for circulatory diseases to be included with cancer risk predictions for space missions. Using NASA's models of risks and uncertainties, we predicted that central estimates for radiation induced mortality and morbidity could exceed 5% and 10% with upper 95% CI near 10% and 20%, respectively for a Mars mission. Additional risks to the central nervous system (CNS) and qualitative differences in the biological effects of GCR compared to terrestrial radiation may significantly increase these estimates, and will require new knowledge to evaluate. PMID:24146746

  13. Spectral estimates of solar radiation intercepted by corn canopies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauer, M. E. (Principal Investigator); Daughtry, C. S. T.; Gallo, K. P.

    1982-01-01

    Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat band radiometer throughout two growing seasons for corn (Zea mays L.) canopies differing in planting dates, populations, and soil types. Agronomic data collected included leaf area index (LAI), biomass, development stage, and final grain yields. The spectral variable, greenness, was associated with 78 percent of the variation in LAI over all treatments. Single observations of LAI or greenness have limited value in predicting corn yields. The proportions of solar radiation intercepted (SRI) by these canopies were estimated using either measured LAI or greenness. Both SRI estimates, when accumulated over the growing season, accounted for approximately 65 percent of the variation in yields. Models which simulated the daily effects of weather and intercepted solar radiation on growth had the highest correlations to grain yields. This concept of estimating intercepted solar radiation using spectral data represents a viable approach for merging spectral and meteorological data for crop yield models.

  14. Variance estimation for radiation analysis and multi-sensor fusion.

    SciTech Connect

    Mitchell, Dean James

    2010-09-01

    Variance estimates that are used in the analysis of radiation measurements must represent all of the measurement and computational uncertainties in order to obtain accurate parameter and uncertainty estimates. This report describes an approach for estimating components of the variance associated with both statistical and computational uncertainties. A multi-sensor fusion method is presented that renders parameter estimates for one-dimensional source models based on input from different types of sensors. Data obtained with multiple types of sensors improve the accuracy of the parameter estimates, and inconsistencies in measurements are also reflected in the uncertainties for the estimated parameter. Specific analysis examples are presented that incorporate a single gross neutron measurement with gamma-ray spectra that contain thousands of channels. The parameter estimation approach is tolerant of computational errors associated with detector response functions and source model approximations.

  15. Parametric Estimation in a Recurrent Competing Risks Model

    PubMed Central

    Peña, Edsel A.

    2014-01-01

    A resource-efficient approach to making inferences about the distributional properties of the failure times in a competing risks setting is presented. Efficiency is gained by observing recurrences of the competing risks over a random monitoring period. The resulting model is called the recurrent competing risks model (RCRM) and is coupled with two repair strategies whenever the system fails. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the marginal distribution functions associated with each of the competing risks and also of the system lifetime distribution function are presented. Estimators are derived under perfect and partial repair strategies. Consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. The estimation methods are applied to a data set of failures for cars under warranty. Simulation studies are used to ascertain the small sample properties and the efficiency gains of the resulting estimators. PMID:25346751

  16. Estimated soil ingestion rates for use in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    LaGoy, P.K.

    1987-09-01

    Assessing the risks to human health posed by contaminants present in soil requires an estimate of likely soil ingestion rates. In the past, direct measurements of soil ingestion were not available and risk assessors were forced to estimate soil ingestion rates based on observations of mouthing behavior and measurements of soil on hands. Recently, empirical data on soil ingestion rates have become available from two sources. Although preliminary, these data can be used to derive better estimates of soil ingestion rates for use in risk assessments. Estimates of average soil ingestion rates derived in this paper range from 25 to 100 mg/day, depending on the age of the individual at risk. Maximum soil ingestion rates that are unlikely to underestimate exposure range from 100 to 500 mg. A value of 5000 mg/day is considered a reasonable estimate of a maximum single-day exposure for a child with habitual pica. 12 references.

  17. Estimating Risk: Stereotype Amplification and the Perceived Risk of Criminal Victimization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quillian, Lincoln; Pager, Devah

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the process by which individuals estimate the risk of adverse events, with particular attention to the social context in which risk estimates are formed. We compare subjective probability estimates of crime victimization to actual victimization experiences among respondents from the 1994 to 2002 waves of the Survey of Economic…

  18. Solar cosmic rays as a specific source of radiation risk during piloted space flight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrov, V. M.

    2004-01-01

    Solar cosmic rays present one of several radiation sources that are unique to space flight. Under ground conditions the exposure to individuals has a controlled form and radiation risk occurs as stochastic radiobiological effects. Existence of solar cosmic rays in space leads to a stochastic mode of radiation environment as a result of which any radiobiological consequences of exposure to solar cosmic rays during the flight will be probabilistic values. In this case, the hazard of deterministic effects should also be expressed in radiation risk values. The main deterministic effect under space conditions is radiation sickness. The best dosimetric functional for its analysis is the blood forming organs dose equivalent but not an effective dose. In addition, the repair processes in red bone marrow affect strongly on the manifestation of this pathology and they must be taken into account for radiation risk assessment. A method for taking into account the mentioned above peculiarities for the solar cosmic rays radiation risk assessment during the interplanetary flights is given in the report. It is shown that radiation risk of deterministic effects defined, as the death probability caused by radiation sickness due to acute solar cosmic rays exposure, can be comparable to risk of stochastic effects. Its value decreases strongly because of the fractional mode of exposure during the orbital movement of the spacecraft. On the contrary, during the interplanetary flight, radiation risk of deterministic effects increases significantly because of the residual component of the blood forming organs dose from previous solar proton events. The noted quality of radiation responses must be taken into account for estimating radiation hazard in space.

  19. Cancer risks attributable to low doses of ionizing radiation: assessing what we really know.

    PubMed

    Brenner, David J; Doll, Richard; Goodhead, Dudley T; Hall, Eric J; Land, Charles E; Little, John B; Lubin, Jay H; Preston, Dale L; Preston, R Julian; Puskin, Jerome S; Ron, Elaine; Sachs, Rainer K; Samet, Jonathan M; Setlow, Richard B; Zaider, Marco

    2003-11-25

    High doses of ionizing radiation clearly produce deleterious consequences in humans, including, but not exclusively, cancer induction. At very low radiation doses the situation is much less clear, but the risks of low-dose radiation are of societal importance in relation to issues as varied as screening tests for cancer, the future of nuclear power, occupational radiation exposure, frequent-flyer risks, manned space exploration, and radiological terrorism. We review the difficulties involved in quantifying the risks of low-dose radiation and address two specific questions. First, what is the lowest dose of x- or gamma-radiation for which good evidence exists of increased cancer risks in humans? The epidemiological data suggest that it is approximately 10-50 mSv for an acute exposure and approximately 50-100 mSv for a protracted exposure. Second, what is the most appropriate way to extrapolate such cancer risk estimates to still lower doses? Given that it is supported by experimentally grounded, quantifiable, biophysical arguments, a linear extrapolation of cancer risks from intermediate to very low doses currently appears to be the most appropriate methodology. This linearity assumption is not necessarily the most conservative approach, and it is likely that it will result in an underestimate of some radiation-induced cancer risks and an overestimate of others. PMID:14610281

  20. Accurate Satellite-Derived Estimates of Tropospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joiner, Joanna; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Vasilkov, Alexander P.; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Levelt, Pieternel F.

    2008-01-01

    Estimates of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenically-produced tropospheric O3 are derived primarily from models. Here, we use tropospheric ozone and cloud data from several instruments in the A-train constellation of satellites as well as information from the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System to accurately estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing from tropospheric O3 for January and July 2005. We improve upon previous estimates of tropospheric ozone mixing ratios from a residual approach using the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) by incorporating cloud pressure information from OMI. Since we cannot distinguish between natural and anthropogenic sources with the satellite data, our estimates reflect the total forcing due to tropospheric O3. We focus specifically on the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud effect on both the shortand long-wave radiative forcing. The estimates presented here can be used to validate present day O3 radiative forcing produced by models.

  1. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

  2. Estimating Risk: Stereotype Amplification and the Perceived Risk of Criminal Victimization.

    PubMed

    Quillian, Lincoln; Pager, Devah

    2010-03-01

    This paper considers the process by which individuals estimate the risk of adverse events, with particular attention to the social context in which risk estimates are formed. We compare subjective probability estimates of crime victimization to actual victimization experiences among respondents from the 1994 to 2002 waves of the Survey of Economic Expectations (Dominitz and Manski 2002). Using zip code identifiers, we then match these survey data to local area characteristics from the census. The results show that: (1) the risk of criminal victimization is significantly overestimated relative to actual rates of victimization or other negative events; (2) neighborhood racial composition is strongly associated with perceived risk of victimization, whereas actual victimization risk is driven by nonracial neighborhood characteristics; and (3) white respondents appear more strongly affected by racial composition than nonwhites in forming their estimates of risk. We argue these results support a model of stereotype amplification in the formation of risk estimates. Implications for persistent racial inequality are considered. PMID:20686631

  3. Estimating Risk: Stereotype Amplification and the Perceived Risk of Criminal Victimization

    PubMed Central

    QUILLIAN, LINCOLN; PAGER, DEVAH

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the process by which individuals estimate the risk of adverse events, with particular attention to the social context in which risk estimates are formed. We compare subjective probability estimates of crime victimization to actual victimization experiences among respondents from the 1994 to 2002 waves of the Survey of Economic Expectations (Dominitz and Manski 2002). Using zip code identifiers, we then match these survey data to local area characteristics from the census. The results show that: (1) the risk of criminal victimization is significantly overestimated relative to actual rates of victimization or other negative events; (2) neighborhood racial composition is strongly associated with perceived risk of victimization, whereas actual victimization risk is driven by nonracial neighborhood characteristics; and (3) white respondents appear more strongly affected by racial composition than nonwhites in forming their estimates of risk. We argue these results support a model of stereotype amplification in the formation of risk estimates. Implications for persistent racial inequality are considered. PMID:20686631

  4. [Risk and value of conventional myelography with reference to the radiation burden of the patient].

    PubMed

    Hentschel, F

    1989-01-01

    To estimate the effective equivalent dosage with reference to the area under examination and the foils employed, fifty patients underwent conventional diagnostic myelography, after which, by means of thermoluminescence surface dosimetry, the mean organ dosage was ascertained from the radiation field size, using a computer program ORDOS. Effective equivalent dosage can be used to determine the inherent risk of radiation injury involved. The risk-benefit ratios obtained would suggest that conventional myelography, prospectively in the form of digital myelography, and spinal computer tomography are not opposing but complementary approaches to spinal diagnosis. Spinal magnetic resonance (MR) merits discussion not from the aspect of exposure to radiation but that of availability. PMID:2704768

  5. Space Radiation Risks for Astronauts on Multiple International Space Station Missions

    PubMed Central

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2014-01-01

    Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA’s radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members’ radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate. PMID:24759903

  6. Thinking Concretely Increases the Perceived Likelihood of Risks: The Effect of Construal Level on Risk Estimation.

    PubMed

    Lermer, Eva; Streicher, Bernhard; Sachs, Rainer; Raue, Martina; Frey, Dieter

    2016-03-01

    Recent findings on construal level theory (CLT) suggest that abstract thinking leads to a lower estimated probability of an event occurring compared to concrete thinking. We applied this idea to the risk context and explored the influence of construal level (CL) on the overestimation of small and underestimation of large probabilities for risk estimates concerning a vague target person (Study 1 and Study 3) and personal risk estimates (Study 2). We were specifically interested in whether the often-found overestimation of small probabilities could be reduced with abstract thinking, and the often-found underestimation of large probabilities was reduced with concrete thinking. The results showed that CL influenced risk estimates. In particular, a concrete mindset led to higher risk estimates compared to an abstract mindset for several adverse events, including events with small and large probabilities. This suggests that CL manipulation can indeed be used for improving the accuracy of lay people's estimates of small and large probabilities. Moreover, the results suggest that professional risk managers' risk estimates of common events (thus with a relatively high probability) could be improved by adopting a concrete mindset. However, the abstract manipulation did not lead managers to estimate extremely unlikely events more accurately. Potential reasons for different CL manipulation effects on risk estimates' accuracy between lay people and risk managers are discussed. PMID:26111548

  7. GOES Solar Radiation for Evapotranspiration Estimation and Streamflow Predictions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) rainfall-runoff model to produce daily river and flood forecasts and issue flood warnings. The manual observations of total sky cover used to estimate solar radiation and potential evapotranspir...

  8. Cancer Risks Associated with External Radiation From Diagnostic Imaging Procedures

    PubMed Central

    Linet, Martha S.; Slovis, Thomas L.; Miller, Donald L.; Kleinerman, Ruth; Lee, Choonsik; Rajaraman, Preetha; de Gonzalez, Amy Berrington

    2012-01-01

    The 600% increase in medical radiation exposure to the US population since 1980 has provided immense benefit, but potential future cancer risks to patients. Most of the increase is from diagnostic radiologic procedures. The objectives of this review are to summarize epidemiologic data on cancer risks associated with diagnostic procedures, describe how exposures from recent diagnostic procedures relate to radiation levels linked with cancer occurrence, and propose a framework of strategies to reduce radiation from diagnostic imaging in patients. We briefly review radiation dose definitions, mechanisms of radiation carcinogenesis, key epidemiologic studies of medical and other radiation sources and cancer risks, and dose trends from diagnostic procedures. We describe cancer risks from experimental studies, future projected risks from current imaging procedures, and the potential for higher risks in genetically susceptible populations. To reduce future projected cancers from diagnostic procedures, we advocate widespread use of evidence-based appropriateness criteria for decisions about imaging procedures, oversight of equipment to deliver reliably the minimum radiation required to attain clinical objectives, development of electronic lifetime records of imaging procedures for patients and their physicians, and commitment by medical training programs, professional societies, and radiation protection organizations to educate all stakeholders in reducing radiation from diagnostic procedures. PMID:22307864

  9. A meta-analysis of leukaemia risk from protracted exposure to low-dose gamma radiation

    PubMed Central

    Schubauer-Berigan, M K

    2010-01-01

    Context More than 400 000 workers annually receive a measurable radiation dose and may be at increased risk of radiation-induced leukaemia. It is unclear whether leukaemia risk is elevated with protracted, low-dose exposure. Objective We conducted a meta-analysis examining the relationship between protracted low-dose ionising radiation exposure and leukaemia. Data sources Reviews by the National Academies and United Nations provided a summary of informative studies published before 2005. PubMed and Embase databases were searched for additional occupational and environmental studies published between 2005 and 2009. Study selection We selected 23 studies that: (1) examined the association between protracted exposures to ionising radiation and leukaemia excluding chronic lymphocytic subtype; (2) were a cohort or nested case–control design without major bias; (3) reported quantitative estimates of exposure; and (4) conducted exposure–response analyses using relative or excess RR per unit exposure. Methods Studies were further screened to reduce information overlap. Random effects models were developed to summarise between-study variance and obtain an aggregate estimate of the excess RR at 100 mGy. Publication bias was assessed by trim and fill and Rosenthal's file drawer methods. Results We found an ERR at 100 mGy of 0.19 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.32) by modelling results from 10 studies and adjusting for publication bias. Between-study variance was not evident (p=0.99). Conclusions Protracted exposure to low-dose gamma radiation is significantly associated with leukaemia. Our estimate agreed well with the leukaemia risk observed among exposed adults in the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors, providing increased confidence in the current understanding of leukaemia risk from ionising radiation. However, unlike the estimates obtained from the LSS, our model provides a precise, quantitative summary of the direct estimates of excess risk from studies of

  10. Improvement of Risk Assessment from Space Radiation Exposure for Future Space Exploration Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Atwell, Bill; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Nounu, Hatem; Hussein, Hesham; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2007-01-01

    Protecting astronauts from space radiation exposure is an important challenge for mission design and operations for future exploration-class and long-duration missions. Crew members are exposed to sporadic solar particle events (SPEs) as well as to the continuous galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). If sufficient protection is not provided the radiation risk to crew members from SPEs could be significant. To improve exposure risk estimates and radiation protection from SPEs, detailed variations of radiation shielding properties are required. A model using a modern CAD tool ProE (TM), which is the leading engineering design platform at NASA, has been developed for this purpose. For the calculation of radiation exposure at a specific site, the cosine distribution was implemented to replicate the omnidirectional characteristic of the 4 pi particle flux on a surface. Previously, estimates of doses to the blood forming organs (BFO) from SPEs have been made using an average body-shielding distribution for the bone marrow based on the computerized anatomical man model (CAM). The development of an 82-point body-shielding distribution at BFOs made it possible to estimate the mean and variance of SPE doses in the major active marrow regions. Using the detailed distribution of bone marrow sites and implementation of cosine distribution of particle flux is shown to provide improved estimates of acute and cancer risks from SPEs.

  11. Radiation as a Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Disease

    PubMed Central

    Moulder, John E.; Hopewell, John W.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Humans are continually exposed to ionizing radiation from terrestrial sources. The two major contributors to radiation exposure of the U.S. population are ubiquitous background radiation and medical exposure of patients. From the early 1980s to 2006, the average dose per individual in the United States for all sources of radiation increased by a factor of 1.7–6.2 mSv, with this increase due to the growth of medical imaging procedures. Radiation can place individuals at an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease. Excess risk of cardiovascular disease occurs a long time after exposure to lower doses of radiation as demonstrated in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. This review examines sources of radiation (atomic bombs, radiation accidents, radiological terrorism, cancer treatment, space exploration, radiosurgery for cardiac arrhythmia, and computed tomography) and the risk for developing cardiovascular disease. The evidence presented suggests an association between cardiovascular disease and exposure to low-to-moderate levels of radiation, as well as the well-known association at high doses. Studies are needed to define the extent that diagnostic and therapeutic radiation results in increased risk factors for cardiovascular disease, to understand the mechanisms involved, and to develop strategies to mitigate or treat radiation-induced cardiovascular disease. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 15, 1945–1956. PMID:21091078

  12. Non-analog Monte Carlo estimators for radiation momentum deposition

    SciTech Connect

    Densmore, Jeffery D; Hykes, Joshua M

    2008-01-01

    The standard method for calculating radiation momentum deposition in Monte Carlo simulations is the analog estimator, which tallies the change in a particle's momentum at each interaction with the matter. Unfortunately, the analog estimator can suffer from large amounts of statistical error. In this paper, we present three new non-analog techniques for estimating momentum deposition. Specifically, we use absorption, collision, and track-length estimators to evaluate a simple integral expression for momentum deposition that does not contain terms that can cause large amounts of statistical error in the analog scheme. We compare our new non-analog estimators to the analog estimator with a set of test problems that encompass a wide range of material properties and both isotropic and anisotropic scattering. In nearly all cases, the new non-analog estimators outperform the analog estimator. The track-length estimator consistently yields the highest performance gains, improving upon the analog-estimator figure of merit by factors of up to two orders of magnitude.

  13. Minimizing Astronauts' Risk from Space Radiation during Future Lunar Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hayat, Mathew; Nounu, Hatem N.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the risk factors from space radiation for astronauts on future lunar missions. Two types of radiation are discussed, Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) and Solar Particle events (SPE). Distributions of Dose from 1972 SPE at 4 DLOCs inside Spacecraft are shown. A chart with the organ dose quantities is also given. Designs of the exploration class spacecraft and the planned lunar rover are shown to exhibit radiation protections features of those vehicles.

  14. ITER- International Toxicity Estimates for Risk, new TOXNET database.

    PubMed

    Tomasulo, Patricia

    2005-01-01

    ITER, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk database, joined the TOXNET system in the winter of 2004. ITER features international comparisons of environmental health risk assessment information and contains over 620 chemical records. ITER includes data from the EPA, Health Canada, the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment of the Netherlands, and other organizations that provide risk values that have been peer-reviewed. PMID:15760833

  15. Sensitivity of health risk estimates to air quality adjustment procedure

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.

    1997-06-30

    This letter is a summary of risk results associated with exposure estimates using two-parameter Weibull and quadratic air quality adjustment procedures (AQAPs). New exposure estimates were developed for children and child-occurrences, six urban areas, and five alternative air quality scenarios. In all cases, the Weibull and quadratic results are compared to previous results, which are based on a proportional AQAP.

  16. Improving Estimates of Cloud Radiative Forcing over Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, W.; Zender, C. S.

    2014-12-01

    Multiple driving mechanisms conspire to increase melt extent and extreme melt events frequency in the Arctic: changing heat transport, shortwave radiation (SW), and longwave radiation (LW). Cloud Radiative Forcing (CRF) of Greenland's surface is amplified by a dry atmosphere and by albedo feedback, making its contribution to surface melt even more variable in time and space. Unfortunately accurate cloud observations and thus CRF estimates are hindered by Greenland's remoteness, harsh conditions, and low contrast between surface and cloud reflectance. In this study, cloud observations from satellites and reanalyses are ingested into and evaluated within a column radiative transfer model. An improved CRF dataset is obtained by correcting systematic discrepancies derived from sensitivity experiments. First, we compare the surface radiation budgets from the Column Radiation Model (CRM) driven by different cloud datasets, with surface observations from Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net). In clear skies, CRM-estimated surface radiation driven by water vapor profiles from both AIRS and MODIS during May-Sept 2010-2012 are similar, stable, and reliable. For example, although AIRS water vapor path exceeds MODIS by 1.4 kg/m2 on a daily average, the overall absolute difference in downwelling SW is < 4 W/m2. CRM estimates are within 20 W/m2 range of GC-Net downwelling SW. After calibrating CRM in clear skies, the remaining differences between CRM and observed surface radiation are primarily attributable to differences in cloud observations. We estimate CRF using cloud products from MODIS and from MERRA. The SW radiative forcing of thin clouds is mainly controlled by cloud water path (CWP). As CWP increases from near 0 to 200 g/m2, the net surface SW drops from over 100 W/m2 to 30 W/m2 almost linearly, beyond which it becomes relatively insensitive to CWP. The LW is dominated by cloud height. For clouds at all altitudes, the lower the clouds, the greater the LW forcing. By

  17. Ionizing Radiation and Cancer Risks: What Have We Learned From Epidemiology?

    PubMed Central

    Gilbert, Ethel S.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose Epidemiologic studies of persons exposed to ionizing radiation offer a wealth of information on cancer risks in humans. The Life Span Study cohort of Japanese A-bomb survivors, a large cohort that includes all ages and both sexes with a wide range of well-characterized doses, is the primary resource for estimating carcinogenic risks from low linear energy transfer external exposure. Extensive data on persons exposed for therapeutic or diagnostic medical reasons offer the opportunity to study fractionated exposure, risks at high therapeutic doses, and risks of site-specific cancers in non-Japanese populations. Studies of persons exposed for occupational and environmental reasons allow a direct evaluation of exposure at low doses and dose rates, and also provide information on different types of radiation such as radon and iodine-131. This article summarizes the findings from these studies with emphasis on studies with well-characterized doses. Conclusions Epidemiologic studies provide the necessary data for quantifying cancer risks as a function of dose and for setting radiation protection standards. Leukemia and most solid cancers have been linked with radiation. Most solid cancer data are reasonably well described by linear-dose response functions although there may be a downturn in risks at very high doses. Persons exposed early in life have especially high relative risks for many cancers, and radiation-related risk of solid cancers appears to persist throughout life. PMID:19401906

  18. Concepts and challenges in cancer risk prediction for the space radiation environment.

    PubMed

    Barcellos-Hoff, Mary Helen; Blakely, Eleanor A; Burma, Sandeep; Fornace, Albert J; Gerson, Stanton; Hlatky, Lynn; Kirsch, David G; Luderer, Ulrike; Shay, Jerry; Wang, Ya; Weil, Michael M

    2015-07-01

    Cancer is an important long-term risk for astronauts exposed to protons and high-energy charged particles during travel and residence on asteroids, the moon, and other planets. NASA's Biomedical Critical Path Roadmap defines the carcinogenic risks of radiation exposure as one of four type I risks. A type I risk represents a demonstrated, serious problem with no countermeasure concepts, and may be a potential "show-stopper" for long duration spaceflight. Estimating the carcinogenic risks for humans who will be exposed to heavy ions during deep space exploration has very large uncertainties at present. There are no human data that address risk from extended exposure to complex radiation fields. The overarching goal in this area to improve risk modeling is to provide biological insight and mechanistic analysis of radiation quality effects on carcinogenesis. Understanding mechanisms will provide routes to modeling and predicting risk and designing countermeasures. This white paper reviews broad issues related to experimental models and concepts in space radiation carcinogenesis as well as the current state of the field to place into context recent findings and concepts derived from the NASA Space Radiation Program. PMID:26256633

  19. Concepts and challenges in cancer risk prediction for the space radiation environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barcellos-Hoff, Mary Helen; Blakely, Eleanor A.; Burma, Sandeep; Fornace, Albert J.; Gerson, Stanton; Hlatky, Lynn; Kirsch, David G.; Luderer, Ulrike; Shay, Jerry; Wang, Ya; Weil, Michael M.

    2015-07-01

    Cancer is an important long-term risk for astronauts exposed to protons and high-energy charged particles during travel and residence on asteroids, the moon, and other planets. NASA's Biomedical Critical Path Roadmap defines the carcinogenic risks of radiation exposure as one of four type I risks. A type I risk represents a demonstrated, serious problem with no countermeasure concepts, and may be a potential "show-stopper" for long duration spaceflight. Estimating the carcinogenic risks for humans who will be exposed to heavy ions during deep space exploration has very large uncertainties at present. There are no human data that address risk from extended exposure to complex radiation fields. The overarching goal in this area to improve risk modeling is to provide biological insight and mechanistic analysis of radiation quality effects on carcinogenesis. Understanding mechanisms will provide routes to modeling and predicting risk and designing countermeasures. This white paper reviews broad issues related to experimental models and concepts in space radiation carcinogenesis as well as the current state of the field to place into context recent findings and concepts derived from the NASA Space Radiation Program.

  20. Possible effects of protracted exposure on the additivity of risks from space radiations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, S. B.

    1996-01-01

    Conventional radiation risk assessments are presently based on the additivity assumption. This assumption states that risks from individual components of a complex radiation field involving many different types of radiation can be added to yield the total risk of the complex radiation field. If the assumption is not correct, the summations and integrations performed to obtain the presently quoted risk estimates are not appropriate. This problem is particularly important in the area of space radiation risk evaluation because of the many different types of high- and low-LET radiation present in the galactic cosmic ray environment. For both low- and high-LET radiations at low enough dose rates, the present convention is that the addivity assumption holds. Mathematically, the total risk, Rtot is assumed to be Rtot = summation (i) Ri where the summation runs over the different types of radiation present. If the total dose (or fluence) from each component is such that the interaction between biological lesions caused by separate single track traversals is negligible within a given cell, it is presently considered to be reasonable to accept the additivity assumption. However, when the exposure is protracted over many cell doubling times (as will be the case for extended missions to the moon or Mars), the possibility exists that radiation effects that depend on multiple cellular events over a long time period, such as is probably the case in radiation-induced carcinogenesis, may not be additive in the above sense and the exposure interval may have to be included in the evaluation procedure. It is shown, however, that "inverse" dose-rate effects are not expected from intermediate LET radiations arising from the galactic cosmic ray environment due to the "sensitive-window-in-the-cell-cycle" hypothesis.

  1. CT radiation dose optimization and estimation: an update for radiologists.

    PubMed

    Goo, Hyun Woo

    2012-01-01

    In keeping with the increasing utilization of CT examinations, the greater concern about radiation hazards from examinations has been addressed. In this regard, CT radiation dose optimization has been given a great deal of attention by radiologists, referring physicians, technologists, and physicists. Dose-saving strategies are continuously evolving in terms of imaging techniques as well as dose management. Consequently, regular updates of this issue are necessary especially for radiologists who play a pivotal role in this activity. This review article will provide an update on how we can optimize CT dose in order to maximize the benefit-to-risk ratio of this clinically useful diagnostic imaging method. PMID:22247630

  2. Scientific view of low-level radiation risks

    SciTech Connect

    Hall, E.J. )

    1991-05-01

    The average number of diagnostic x-ray procedures per year in the United States equals the total population and results in an annual collective effective dose equivalent of about 9 million person-rem. Possible deleterious effects include (a) genetic consequences, the risks of which can be assessed only from animal studies; (b) carcinogenesis, which can be assessed from survivors of nuclear bombings and patients exposed for medical reasons; and (c) effects on the developing embryo or fetus. For stochastic endpoints such as cancer and genetic anomalies, it is estimated that the current practice of radiology in the United States increases spontaneous frequency by less than 1%. No single procedure is likely to produce harm to the conceptus, but an accumulation of procedures in a pregnant woman could be hazardous during the sensitive period of 8-15 weeks after conception, with microcephaly and mental retardation the most likely deleterious effects. The balance of risk versus benefit in diagnostic radiology is heavily weighted toward benefit, but the risks are there, and constant efforts are needed to reduce radiation doses to the minimum necessary.

  3. Space radiation risks to the central nervous system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Alp, Murat; Sulzman, Frank M.; Wang, Minli

    2014-07-01

    Central nervous system (CNS) risks which include during space missions and lifetime risks due to space radiation exposure are of concern for long-term exploration missions to Mars or other destinations. Possible CNS risks during a mission are altered cognitive function, including detriments in short-term memory, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, which may affect performance and human health. The late CNS risks are possible neurological disorders such as premature aging, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) or other dementia. Radiation safety requirements are intended to prevent all clinically significant acute risks. However the definition of clinically significant CNS risks and their dependences on dose, dose-rate and radiation quality is poorly understood at this time. For late CNS effects such as increased risk of AD, the occurrence of the disease is fatal with mean time from diagnosis of early stage AD to death about 8 years. Therefore if AD risk or other late CNS risks from space radiation occur at mission relevant doses, they would naturally be included in the overall acceptable risk of exposure induced death (REID) probability for space missions. Important progress has been made in understanding CNS risks due to space radiation exposure, however in general the doses used in experimental studies have been much higher than the annual galactic cosmic ray (GCR) dose (∼0.1 Gy/y at solar maximum and ∼0.2 Gy/y at solar minimum with less than 50% from HZE particles). In this report we summarize recent space radiobiology studies of CNS effects from particle accelerators simulating space radiation using experimental models, and make a critical assessment of their relevance relative to doses and dose-rates to be incurred on a Mars mission. Prospects for understanding dose, dose-rate and radiation quality dependencies of CNS effects and extrapolation to human risk assessments are described.

  4. Therapeutic radiation and the potential risk of second malignancies.

    PubMed

    Kamran, Sophia C; Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy; Ng, Andrea; Haas-Kogan, Daphne; Viswanathan, Akila N

    2016-06-15

    Radiation has long been associated with carcinogenesis. Nevertheless, it is an important part of multimodality therapy for many malignancies. It is critical to assess the risk of secondary malignant neoplasms (SMNs) after radiation treatment. The authors reviewed the literature with a focus on radiation and associated SMNs for primary hematologic, breast, gynecologic, and pediatric tumors. Radiation appeared to increase the risk of SMN in all of these; however, this risk was found to be associated with age, hormonal influences, chemotherapy use, environmental influences, genetic predisposition, infection, and immunosuppression. The risk also appears to be altered with modern radiotherapy techniques. Practitioners of all specialties who treat cancer survivors in follow-up should be aware of this potential risk. Cancer 2016;122:1809-21. © 2016 American Cancer Society. PMID:26950597

  5. How much can we say about site-specific cancer radiation risks?

    PubMed

    Preston, D L; Krestinina, L Yu; Sokolnikov, M E; Ron, E; Davis, F G; Ostroumova, E V; Gilbert, E S

    2010-12-01

    Studies of Mayak workers and people who lived along the Techa River have demonstrated significant associations between low-dose-rate radiation exposure and increased solid cancer risk. It is of interest to use the long-term follow-up data from these cohorts to describe radiation effects for specific types of cancer; however, statistical variability in the site-specific risk estimates is large. The goal of this work is to describe this variability and provide Bayesian adjusted risk estimates. We assume that the site-specific estimates can be viewed as a sample from some underlying distribution and use Bayesian methods to produce adjusted excess relative risk per gray estimates in the Mayak and Techa River cohorts. The impact of the adjustment is compared to that seen in similar analyses in the atomic bomb survivors. Site-specific risk estimates in the Mayak and Techa River cohorts have large uncertainties. Unadjusted estimates vary from implausibly large decreases to large increases, with a range that greatly exceeds that found in the A-bomb survivors. The Bayesian adjustment markedly reduced the range of the site-specific estimates for the Techa River and Mayak studies. The extreme variability in the site-specific risk estimates is largely a consequence of the small number of excess cases. The adjusted estimates provide a useful perspective on variation in the actual risks. However, additional work on interpretation of the adjusted estimates, extension of the methods used in describing effect modification, and making more use of prior knowledge is needed to make these methods useful. PMID:21128806

  6. Space radiation dose estimates on the surface of Mars.

    PubMed

    Simonsen, L C; Nealy, J E; Townsend, L W; Wilson, J W

    1990-01-01

    A future goal of the U.S. space program is a commitment to the manned exploration and habitation of Mars. An important consideration of such missions is the exposure of crew members to the damaging effects of ionizing radiation from high-energy galactic cosmic ray fluxes and solar proton flares. The crew will encounter the most harmful radiation environment in transit to Mars from which they must be adequately protected. However, once on the planet's surface, the Martian environment should provide a significant amount of protection from free-space radiative fluxes. In current Mars scenario descriptions, the crew flight time to Mars is estimated to be anywhere from 7 months to over a year each way, with stay times on the surface ranging from 20 days to 2 years. To maintain dose levels below established astronaut limits, dose estimates need to be determined for the entire mission length. With extended crew durations on the surface anticipated, the characterization of the Mars radiation environment is important in assessing all radiation protection requirements. This synopsis focuses on the probable doses incurred by surface inhabitants from the transport of galactic cosmic rays and solar protons through the Mars atmosphere. PMID:11537609

  7. Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated). The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk. PMID:22776564

  8. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-01

    The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  9. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-25

    The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  10. Acceptability of risk from radiation: Application to human space flight

    SciTech Connect

    1997-04-30

    This one of NASA`s sponsored activities of the NCRP. In 1983, NASA asked NCRP to examine radiation risks in space and to make recommendations about career radiation limits for astronauts (with cancer considered as the principal risk). In conjunction with that effort, NCRP was asked to convene this symposium; objective is to examine the technical, strategic, and philosophical issues pertaining to acceptable risk and radiation in space. Nine papers are included together with panel discussions and a summary. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  11. Changes in biomarkers from space radiation may reflect dose not risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, Antone L.; Lei, Xingye C.; Rithidech, Kanokporn

    the shape of the dose response to the reference radiation than it is on the radiation type of interest.A large study using micronuclei as biomarkers following exposure to different energies of mono-energetic neutrons, x-rays and gamma rays delivered at very low doses (0.0 to 0.10 Gy) is reported. As additional biomarkers of risk involved in critical steps in the carcinogenic process are developed, it may become possible to base risk estimates on biological change rather than the radiation energy deposition or dose.

  12. [Application of spatial relative risk estimation in communicable disease risk evaluation].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yewu; Guo, Qing; Wang, Xiaofeng; Yu, Meng; Su, Xuemei; Dong, Yan; Zhang, Chunxi

    2015-05-01

    This paper summaries the application of adaptive kernel density algorithm in the spatial relative risk estimation of communicable diseases by using the reported data of infectious diarrhea (other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid) in Ludian county and surrounding area in Yunnan province in 2013. Statistically significant fluctuations in an estimated risk function were identified through the use of asymptotic tolerance contours, and finally these data were visualized though disease mapping. The results of spatial relative risk estimation and disease mapping showed that high risk areas were in southeastern Shaoyang next to Ludian. Therefore, the spatial relative risk estimation of disease by using adaptive kernel density algorithm and disease mapping technique is a powerful method in identifying high risk population and areas. PMID:26080648

  13. A New Approach to Reduce Uncertainties in Space Radiation Cancer Risk Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of space radiation induced cancer risk carries large uncertainties with two of the largest uncertainties being radiation quality and dose-rate effects. In risk models the ratio of the quality factor (QF) to the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) parameter is used to scale organ doses for cosmic ray proton and high charge and energy (HZE) particles to a hazard rate for γ-rays derived from human epidemiology data. In previous work, particle track structure concepts were used to formulate a space radiation QF function that is dependent on particle charge number Z, and kinetic energy per atomic mass unit, E. QF uncertainties where represented by subjective probability distribution functions (PDF) for the three QF parameters that described its maximum value and shape parameters for Z and E dependences. Here I report on an analysis of a maximum QF parameter and its uncertainty using mouse tumor induction data. Because experimental data for risks at low doses of γ-rays are highly uncertain which impacts estimates of maximum values of relative biological effectiveness (RBEmax), I developed an alternate QF model, denoted QFγAcute where QFs are defined relative to higher acute γ-ray doses (0.5 to 3 Gy). The alternate model reduces the dependence of risk projections on the DDREF, however a DDREF is still needed for risk estimates for high-energy protons and other primary or secondary sparsely ionizing space radiation components. Risk projections (upper confidence levels (CL)) for space missions show a reduction of about 40% (CL∼50%) using the QFγAcute model compared the QFs based on RBEmax and about 25% (CL∼35%) compared to previous estimates. In addition, I discuss how a possible qualitative difference leading to increased tumor lethality for HZE particles compared to low LET radiation and background tumors remains a large uncertainty in risk estimates. PMID:25789764

  14. A new approach to reduce uncertainties in space radiation cancer risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, Francis A

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of space radiation induced cancer risk carries large uncertainties with two of the largest uncertainties being radiation quality and dose-rate effects. In risk models the ratio of the quality factor (QF) to the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) parameter is used to scale organ doses for cosmic ray proton and high charge and energy (HZE) particles to a hazard rate for γ-rays derived from human epidemiology data. In previous work, particle track structure concepts were used to formulate a space radiation QF function that is dependent on particle charge number Z, and kinetic energy per atomic mass unit, E. QF uncertainties where represented by subjective probability distribution functions (PDF) for the three QF parameters that described its maximum value and shape parameters for Z and E dependences. Here I report on an analysis of a maximum QF parameter and its uncertainty using mouse tumor induction data. Because experimental data for risks at low doses of γ-rays are highly uncertain which impacts estimates of maximum values of relative biological effectiveness (RBEmax), I developed an alternate QF model, denoted QFγAcute where QFs are defined relative to higher acute γ-ray doses (0.5 to 3 Gy). The alternate model reduces the dependence of risk projections on the DDREF, however a DDREF is still needed for risk estimates for high-energy protons and other primary or secondary sparsely ionizing space radiation components. Risk projections (upper confidence levels (CL)) for space missions show a reduction of about 40% (CL∼50%) using the QFγAcute model compared the QFs based on RBEmax and about 25% (CL∼35%) compared to previous estimates. In addition, I discuss how a possible qualitative difference leading to increased tumor lethality for HZE particles compared to low LET radiation and background tumors remains a large uncertainty in risk estimates. PMID:25789764

  15. A Biodosimeter for Multiparametric Determination of Radiation Dose, Radiation Quality, and Radiation Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, Robert; Cruz, Angela; Jansen, Heather; Bors, Karen

    2003-01-01

    Predicting risk of human cancer following exposure of an individual or a population to ionizing radiation is challenging. To an approximation, this is because uncertainties of uniform absorption of dose and the uniform processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level within a complex set of biological variables degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the risk of developing cancer by the cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported. This is the demonstration of a dose responsive field effect of enhanced expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells irradiated with cesium-1 37 gamma-rays. Dose response of enhanced K18 expression was experimentally extended over a range of 30 to 90 cGy for cells evaluated at mid-log phase. K18 has been reported to be a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis, and thereby serves as an example of a potential marker for cancer risk, where the reality of such predictive value would require additional experimental development. Since observed radiogenic increase in expression of K18 is a field effect, ie., chronically present in all cells of the irradiated population, it may be hypothesized that K18 expression in specific cells absorbing particulate irradiation, such as the high-LET-producing atomic nuclei of space radiation, will report on both the single-cell distributions of those particles amongst cells within the exposed population, and that the relatively high dose per cell delivered by densely ionizing tracks of those intersecting particles will lead to cell-specific high-expression levels of K18, thereby providing analytical end points that may be used to resolve both the quantity and

  16. Imaging Radiation Doses and Associated Risks and Benefits in Subjects Participating in Breast Cancer Clinical Trials

    PubMed Central

    Spera, Gonzalo; Meyer, Carlos; Cabral, Pablo; Mackey, John R.

    2015-01-01

    Background. Medical imaging is commonly required in breast cancer (BC) clinical trials to assess the efficacy and/or safety of study interventions. Despite the lack of definitive epidemiological data linking imaging radiation with cancer development in adults, concerns exist about the risks of imaging radiation-induced malignancies (IRIMs) in subjects exposed to repetitive imaging. We estimated the imaging radiation dose and IRIM risk in subjects participating in BC trials. Materials and Methods. The imaging protocol requirements in 10 phase III trials in the adjuvant and advanced settings were assessed to estimate the effective radiation dose received by a typical and fully compliant subject in each trial. For each study, the excess lifetime attributable cancer risk (LAR) was calculated using the National Cancer Institute’s Radiation Risk Assessment Tool, version 3.7.1. Dose and risk calculations were performed for both imaging intensive and nonintensive approaches to reflect the variability in imaging performed within the studies. Results. The total effective imaging radiation dose was 0.4–262.2 mSv in adjuvant trials and 26–241.3 mSv in metastatic studies. The dose variability resulted from differing protocol requirements and imaging intensity approaches, with computed tomography, multigated acquisition scans, and bone scans as the major contributors. The mean LAR was 1.87–2,410/100,000 in adjuvant trials (IRIM: 0.0002%–2.41% of randomized subjects) and 6.9–67.3/100,000 in metastatic studies (IRIM: 0.007%–0.067% of subjects). Conclusion. IRIMs are infrequent events. In adjuvant trials, aligning the protocol requirements with the clinical guidelines’ surveillance recommendations and substituting radiating procedures with equivalent nonradiating ones would reduce IRIM risk. No significant risk has been observed in metastatic trials, and potential concerns on IRIMs are not justified. Implications for Practice: Medical imaging is key in breast cancer

  17. Radiation as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Baker, John E; Moulder, John E; Hopewell, John W

    2011-10-01

    Abstract population are ubiquitous background radiation and medical exposure of patients. From the early 1980s to 2006, the average dose per individual in the United States for all sources of radiation increased by a factor of 1.7-6.2 mSv, with this increase due to the growth of medical imaging procedures. Radiation can place individuals at an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease. Excess risk of cardiovascular disease occurs a long time after exposure to lower doses of radiation as demonstrated in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. This review examines sources of radiation (atomic bombs, radiation accidents, radiological terrorism, cancer treatment, space exploration, radiosurgery for cardiac arrhythmia, and computed tomography) and the risk for developing cardiovascular disease. The evidence presented suggests an association between cardiovascular disease and exposure to low-to-moderate levels of radiation, as well as the well-known association at high doses. Studies are needed to define the extent that diagnostic and therapeutic radiation results in increased risk factors for cardiovascular disease, to understand the mechanisms involved, and to develop strategies to mitigate or treat radiation-induced cardiovascular disease. PMID:21091078

  18. Surface daytime net radiation estimation using artificial neural networks

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Jiang, Bo; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Shunlin; Zhang, Xiaotong; Xiao, Zhiqiang

    2014-11-11

    Net all-wave surface radiation (Rn) is one of the most important fundamental parameters in various applications. However, conventional Rn measurements are difficult to collect because of the high cost and ongoing maintenance of recording instruments. Therefore, various empirical Rn estimation models have been developed. This study presents the results of two artificial neural network (ANN) models (general regression neural networks (GRNN) and Neuroet) to estimate Rn globally from multi-source data, including remotely sensed products, surface measurements, and meteorological reanalysis products. Rn estimates provided by the two ANNs were tested against in-situ radiation measurements obtained from 251 global sites between 1991–2010more » both in global mode (all data were used to fit the models) and in conditional mode (the data were divided into four subsets and the models were fitted separately). Based on the results obtained from extensive experiments, it has been proved that the two ANNs were superior to linear-based empirical models in both global and conditional modes and that the GRNN performed better and was more stable than Neuroet. The GRNN estimates had a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.92, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 34.27 W·m–2 , and a bias of –0.61 W·m–2 in global mode based on the validation dataset. In conclusion, ANN methods are a potentially powerful tool for global Rn estimation.« less

  19. The potential impact of bystander effects on radiation risks in a Mars mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brenner, D. J.; Elliston, C. D.; Hall, E. I. (Principal Investigator)

    2001-01-01

    Densely ionizing (high-LET) galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contribute a significant component of the radiation risk in free space. Over a period of a few months-sufficient for the early stages of radiation carcinogenesis to occur-a significant proportion of cell nuclei will not be traversed. There is convincing evidence, at least in vitro, that irradiated cells can send out signals that can result in damage to nearby unirradiated cells. This observation can hold even when the unirradiated cells have been exposed to low doses of low-LET radiation. We discuss here a quantitative model based on the a formalism, an approach that incorporates radiobiological damage both from a bystander response to signals emitted by irradiated cells, and also from direct traversal of high-LET radiations through cell nuclei. The model produces results that are consistent with those of a series of studies of the bystander phenomenon using a high-LET microbeam, with the end point of in vitro oncogenic transformation. According to this picture, for exposure to high-LET particles such as galactic cosmic rays other than protons, the bystander effect is significant primarily at low fluences, i.e., exposures where there are significant numbers of untraversed cells. If the mechanisms postulated here were applicable in vivo, using a linear extrapolation of risks derived from studies using intermediate doses of high-LET radiation (where the contribution of the bystander effect may be negligible) to estimate risks at very low doses (where the bystander effect may be dominant) could underestimate the true risk from low doses of high-LET radiation. It would be highly premature simply to abandon current risk projections for high-LET, low-dose radiation; however, these considerations would suggest caution in applying results derived from experiments using high-LET radiation at fluences above approximately 1 particle per nucleus to risk estimation for a Mars mission.

  20. The potential impact of bystander effects on radiation risks in a Mars mission.

    PubMed

    Brenner, D J; Elliston, C D

    2001-11-01

    Densely ionizing (high-LET) galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contribute a significant component of the radiation risk in free space. Over a period of a few months-sufficient for the early stages of radiation carcinogenesis to occur-a significant proportion of cell nuclei will not be traversed. There is convincing evidence, at least in vitro, that irradiated cells can send out signals that can result in damage to nearby unirradiated cells. This observation can hold even when the unirradiated cells have been exposed to low doses of low-LET radiation. We discuss here a quantitative model based on the a formalism, an approach that incorporates radiobiological damage both from a bystander response to signals emitted by irradiated cells, and also from direct traversal of high-LET radiations through cell nuclei. The model produces results that are consistent with those of a series of studies of the bystander phenomenon using a high-LET microbeam, with the end point of in vitro oncogenic transformation. According to this picture, for exposure to high-LET particles such as galactic cosmic rays other than protons, the bystander effect is significant primarily at low fluences, i.e., exposures where there are significant numbers of untraversed cells. If the mechanisms postulated here were applicable in vivo, using a linear extrapolation of risks derived from studies using intermediate doses of high-LET radiation (where the contribution of the bystander effect may be negligible) to estimate risks at very low doses (where the bystander effect may be dominant) could underestimate the true risk from low doses of high-LET radiation. It would be highly premature simply to abandon current risk projections for high-LET, low-dose radiation; however, these considerations would suggest caution in applying results derived from experiments using high-LET radiation at fluences above approximately 1 particle per nucleus to risk estimation for a Mars mission. PMID:11604082

  1. Estimating worldwide solar radiation resources on a 40km grid

    SciTech Connect

    Maxwell, E.L.; George, R.L.; Brady, E.H.

    1996-11-01

    During 1995, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), initiated the Data Grid Task under the auspices of DOE`s Resource Assessment Program. A data grid is a framework of uniformly spaced locations (grid points) for which data are available. Estimates of monthly averages of direct normal, diffuse horizontal, and global horizontal daily-total solar radiation energy (kWh/m{sup 2}) are being made for each point on a grid covering the US, Mexico, the Caribbean, and southern Canada. The grid points are separated by approximately 40 km. Using interpolation methods, the digital data grid can be used to estimate solar resources at any location. The most encouraging result to date has been the location of sources providing worldwide data for most of the input parameters required for modeling daily total solar radiation. This is a multiyear task expected to continue through the rest of this century.

  2. Space life sciences: radiation risk assessment and radiation measurements in low Earth orbit.

    PubMed

    2004-01-01

    The volume contains papers presented at COSPAR symposia in October 2002 about radiation risk assessment and radiation measurements in low Earth orbit. The risk assessment symposium brought together multidisciplinary expertise including physicists, biologists, and theoretical modelers. Topics included current knowledge about known and predicted radiation environments, radiation shielding, physics cross section models, improved ion beam transport codes, biological demonstrations of specific shielding materials and applications to a manned mission to Mars, advancements in biological measurement of radiation-induced protein expression profiles, and integration of physical and biological parameters to assess key elements of radiation risk. Papers from the radiation measurements in low Earth orbit symposium included data about dose, linear energy transfer spectra, and charge spectra from recent measurements on the International Space Station (ISS), comparison between calculations and measurements of dose distribution inside a human phantom and the neutron component inside the ISS; and reviews of trapped antiprotons and positrons inside the Earth's magnetosphere. PMID:15880912

  3. Estimation of scattered radiation in digital breast tomosynthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diaz, O.; Dance, D. R.; Young, K. C.; Elangovan, P.; Bakic, P. R.; Wells, K.

    2014-08-01

    Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a promising technique to overcome the tissue superposition limitations found in planar 2D x-ray mammography. However, as most DBT systems do not employ an anti-scatter grid, the levels of scattered radiation recorded within the image receptor are significantly higher than that observed in planar 2D x-ray mammography. Knowledge of this field is necessary as part of any correction scheme and for computer modelling and optimisation of this examination. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are often used for this purpose, however they are computationally expensive and a more rapid method of calculation is desirable. This issue is addressed in this work by the development of a fast kernel-based methodology for scatter field estimation using a detailed realistic DBT geometry. Thickness-dependent scatter kernels, which were validated against the literature with a maximum discrepancy of 4% for an idealised geometry, have been calculated and a new physical parameter (air gap distance) was used to estimate more accurately the distribution of scattered radiation for a series of anthropomorphic breast phantom models. The proposed methodology considers, for the first time, the effects of scattered radiation from the compression paddle and breast support plate, which can represent more than 30% of the total scattered radiation recorded within the image receptor. The results show that the scatter field estimator can calculate scattered radiation images in an average of 80 min for projection angles up to 25° with equal to or less than a 10% error across most of the breast area when compared with direct MC simulations.

  4. Effect of recent changes in atomic bomb survivor dosimetry on cancer mortality risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Preston, Dale L; Pierce, Donald A; Shimizu, Yukiko; Cullings, Harry M; Fujita, Shoichiro; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Kodama, Kazunori

    2004-10-01

    The Radiation Effects Research Foundation has recently implemented a new dosimetry system, DS02, to replace the previous system, DS86. This paper assesses the effect of the change on risk estimates for radiation-related solid cancer and leukemia mortality. The changes in dose estimates were smaller than many had anticipated, with the primary systematic change being an increase of about 10% in gamma-ray estimates for both cities. In particular, an anticipated large increase of the neutron component in Hiroshima for low-dose survivors did not materialize. However, DS02 improves on DS86 in many details, including the specifics of the radiation released by the bombs and the effects of shielding by structures and terrain. The data used here extend the last reported follow-up for solid cancers by 3 years, with a total of 10,085 deaths, and extends the follow-up for leukemia by 10 years, with a total of 296 deaths. For both solid cancer and leukemia, estimated age-time patterns and sex difference are virtually unchanged by the dosimetry revision. The estimates of solid-cancer radiation risk per sievert and the curvilinear dose response for leukemia are both decreased by about 8% by the dosimetry revision, due to the increase in the gamma-ray dose estimates. The apparent shape of the dose response is virtually unchanged by the dosimetry revision, but for solid cancers, the additional 3 years of follow-up has some effect. In particular, there is for the first time a statistically significant upward curvature for solid cancer on the restricted dose range 0-2 Sv. However, the low-dose slope of a linear-quadratic fit to that dose range should probably not be relied on for risk estimation, since that is substantially smaller than the linear slopes on ranges 0-1 Sv, 0-0.5 Sv, and 0- 0.25 Sv. Although it was anticipated that the new dosimetry system might reduce some apparent dose overestimates for Nagasaki factory workers, this did not materialize, and factory workers have

  5. Radiation shielding estimates for manned Mars space flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dudkin, V. E.; Kovalev, E. E.; Kolomensky, A. V.; Sakovich, V. A.; Semenov, V. F.; Demin, V. P.; Benton, E. V.

    1992-01-01

    In the analysis of the required radiation shielding protection of spacecraft during a Mars flight, specific effects of solar activity (SA) on the intensity of galactic and solar cosmic rays were taken into consideration. Three spaceflight periods were considered: (1) maximum SA; (2) minimum SA; and (3) intermediate SA, when intensities of both galactic and solar cosmic rays are moderately high. Scenarios of spaceflights utilizing liquid-propellant rocket engines, low- and intermediate-thrust nuclear electrojet engines, and nuclear rocket engines, all of which have been designed in the Soviet Union, are reviewed. Calculations were performed on the basis of a set of standards for radiation protection approved by the U.S.S.R. State Committee for Standards. It was found that the lowest estimated mass of a Mars spacecraft, including the radiation shielding mass, obtained using a combination of a liquid propellant engine with low and intermediate thrust nuclear electrojet engines, would be 500-550 metric tons.

  6. Estimation of radiative heat transfer using a geometric human model.

    PubMed

    Kakuta, N; Yokoyama, S; Nakamura, M; Mabuchi, K

    2001-03-01

    In order to provide a detailed estimate of radiative heat transfer between a human body and its surrounding environment, we have developed a geometric model of a human form and an algorithm. The model closely resembles the actual shape of a human body and is composed of small quadrilateral surfaces. Dealing with an object or a space with an arbitrary shape, the developed algorithm can judge efficiently whether there is an obstruction between a pair of surfaces. As a result, the angle factors between a pair of surfaces that only occur during radiative heat transfer can be defined. The distribution of the radiative heat transfer rates shows the characteristics of body shape and variations in posture. PMID:11327500

  7. Radiation shielding estimates for manned Mars space flight.

    PubMed

    Dudkin, V E; Kovalev, E E; Kolomensky, A V; Sakovich, V A; Semenov, V F; Demin, V P; Benton, E V

    1992-01-01

    In the analysis of the required radiation shielding protection of spacecraft during a Mars flight, specific effects of solar activity (SA) on the intensity of galactic and solar cosmic rays were taken into consideration. Three spaceflight periods were considered: (1) maximum SA; (2) minimum SA; and (3) intermediate SA, when intensities of both galactic and solar cosmic rays are moderately high. Scenarios of spaceflights utilizing liquid-propellant rocket engines, low- and intermediate-thrust nuclear electrojet engines, and nuclear rocket engines, all of which have been designed in the Soviet Union, are reviewed. Calculations were performed on the basis of a set of standards for radiation protection approved by the U.S.S.R. State Committee for Standards. It was found that the lowest estimated mass of a Mars spacecraft, including the radiation shielding mass, obtained using a combination of a liquid propellant engine with low and intermediate thrust nuclear electrojet engines, would be 500-550 metric tons. PMID:11537532

  8. Space radiation risk limits and Earth-Moon-Mars environmental models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hu, Shaowen; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Kozarev, K.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.

    2010-12-01

    We review NASA's short-term and career radiation limits for astronauts and methods for their application to future exploration missions outside of low Earth orbit. Career limits are intended to restrict late occurring health effects and include a 3% risk of exposure-induced death from cancer and new limits for central nervous system and heart disease risks. Short-term dose limits are used to prevent in-flight radiation sickness or death through restriction of the doses to the blood forming organs and to prevent clinically significant cataracts or skin damage through lens and skin dose limits, respectively. Large uncertainties exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation, chiefly the understanding of the radiobiology of heavy ions and dose rate and dose protraction effects, and the limitations in human epidemiology data. To protect against these uncertainties NASA estimates the 95% confidence in the cancer risk projection intervals as part of astronaut flight readiness assessments and mission design. Accurate organ dose and particle spectra models are needed to ensure astronauts stay below radiation limits and to support the goal of narrowing the uncertainties in risk projections. Methodologies for evaluation of space environments, radiation quality, and organ doses to evaluate limits are discussed, and current projections for lunar and Mars missions are described.

  9. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data.

    PubMed

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Pfeiffer, Ruth M

    2014-04-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  10. [Risk of second cancer after radiation therapy].

    PubMed

    Kakinuma, Shizuko; Shimada, Yoshiya

    2014-01-01

    This review describes the secondary cancer after radiotherapy. Secondary cancer is a great concern for cancer survivors, especially for childhood cancer survivors not only because of their intrinsic high susceptibility to radiation but also because of successful achievement of longer survival. Recent advance of molecular biology reveals unique genomic changes, which distinguish radiation-induced tumors from spontaneous or chemically induced tumors. PMID:25693295

  11. What Are the Radiation Risks from CT?

    MedlinePlus

    ... by some of the Japanese survivors of the atomic bombs. These survivors, who are estimated to have experienced ... by some of the Japanese survivors of the atomic bombs. These survivors, who are estimated to have experienced ...

  12. Estimation of Evapotranspiration as a function of Photosynthetic Active Radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wesley, E.; Migliaccio, K.; Judge, J.

    2012-12-01

    The purpose of this research project is to more accurately measure the water balance and energy movements to properly allocate water resources at the Snapper Creek Site in Miami-Dade County, FL, by quantifying and estimating evapotranspiration (ET). ET is generally estimated using weather based equations, this project focused on estimating ET as a function of Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR). The project objectives were first to compose a function of PAR and calculated coefficients that can accurately estimate daily ET values with the least amount of variables used in its estimation equation, and second, to compare the newly identified ET estimation PAR function to TURC estimations, in comparison to our actual Eddy Covariance (EC) ET data and determine the differences in ET values. PAR, volumetric water content (VWC), and temperature (T) data were quality checked and used in developing singular and multiple variable regression models fit with SigmaPlot software. Fifteen different ET estimation equations were evaluated against EC ET and TURC estimated ET using R2 and slope factors. The selected equation that best estimated EC ET was cross validated using a 5 month data set; its daily and monthly ET values and sums were compared against the commonly used TURC equation. Using a multiple variable regression model, an equation with three variables (i.e., VWC, T, and PAR) was identified that best fit EC ET daily data. However, a regression was also found that used only PAR and provided ET predictions of similar accuracy. The PAR based regression model predicted daily EC ET more accurately than the traditional TURC method. Using only PAR to estimate ET reduces the input variables as compared to using the TURC model which requires T and solar radiation. Thus, not only is the PAR approach more accurate but also more cost effective. The PAR-based ET estimation equation derived in this study may be over fit considering only 5 months of data were used to produce the PAR

  13. Risk of cancer subsequent to low-dose radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Warren, S.

    1980-01-01

    The author puts low dose irradiation risks in perspective using average background radiation doses for standards. He assailed irresponsible media coverage during the height of public interest in the Three-Mile Island Reactor incident. (PCS)

  14. Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

    PubMed Central

    Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

  15. Assessment of uncertainties in radiation-induced cancer risk predictions at clinically relevant doses

    SciTech Connect

    Nguyen, J.; Moteabbed, M.; Paganetti, H.

    2015-01-15

    Purpose: Theoretical dose–response models offer the possibility to assess second cancer induction risks after external beam therapy. The parameters used in these models are determined with limited data from epidemiological studies. Risk estimations are thus associated with considerable uncertainties. This study aims at illustrating uncertainties when predicting the risk for organ-specific second cancers in the primary radiation field illustrated by choosing selected treatment plans for brain cancer patients. Methods: A widely used risk model was considered in this study. The uncertainties of the model parameters were estimated with reported data of second cancer incidences for various organs. Standard error propagation was then subsequently applied to assess the uncertainty in the risk model. Next, second cancer risks of five pediatric patients treated for cancer in the head and neck regions were calculated. For each case, treatment plans for proton and photon therapy were designed to estimate the uncertainties (a) in the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for a given treatment modality and (b) when comparing risks of two different treatment modalities. Results: Uncertainties in excess of 100% of the risk were found for almost all organs considered. When applied to treatment plans, the calculated LAR values have uncertainties of the same magnitude. A comparison between cancer risks of different treatment modalities, however, does allow statistically significant conclusions. In the studied cases, the patient averaged LAR ratio of proton and photon treatments was 0.35, 0.56, and 0.59 for brain carcinoma, brain sarcoma, and bone sarcoma, respectively. Their corresponding uncertainties were estimated to be potentially below 5%, depending on uncertainties in dosimetry. Conclusions: The uncertainty in the dose–response curve in cancer risk models makes it currently impractical to predict the risk for an individual external beam treatment. On the other hand, the ratio

  16. Assessment of uncertainties in radiation-induced cancer risk predictions at clinically relevant doses

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, J.; Moteabbed, M.; Paganetti, H.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Theoretical dose–response models offer the possibility to assess second cancer induction risks after external beam therapy. The parameters used in these models are determined with limited data from epidemiological studies. Risk estimations are thus associated with considerable uncertainties. This study aims at illustrating uncertainties when predicting the risk for organ-specific second cancers in the primary radiation field illustrated by choosing selected treatment plans for brain cancer patients. Methods: A widely used risk model was considered in this study. The uncertainties of the model parameters were estimated with reported data of second cancer incidences for various organs. Standard error propagation was then subsequently applied to assess the uncertainty in the risk model. Next, second cancer risks of five pediatric patients treated for cancer in the head and neck regions were calculated. For each case, treatment plans for proton and photon therapy were designed to estimate the uncertainties (a) in the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for a given treatment modality and (b) when comparing risks of two different treatment modalities. Results: Uncertainties in excess of 100% of the risk were found for almost all organs considered. When applied to treatment plans, the calculated LAR values have uncertainties of the same magnitude. A comparison between cancer risks of different treatment modalities, however, does allow statistically significant conclusions. In the studied cases, the patient averaged LAR ratio of proton and photon treatments was 0.35, 0.56, and 0.59 for brain carcinoma, brain sarcoma, and bone sarcoma, respectively. Their corresponding uncertainties were estimated to be potentially below 5%, depending on uncertainties in dosimetry. Conclusions: The uncertainty in the dose–response curve in cancer risk models makes it currently impractical to predict the risk for an individual external beam treatment. On the other hand, the ratio

  17. SU-E-T-208: Incidence Cancer Risk From the Radiation Treatment for Acoustic Neuroma Patient

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, D; Chung, W; Shin, D; Yoon, M

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: The present study aimed to compare the incidence risk of a secondary cancer from therapeutic doses in patients receiving intensitymodulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods: Four acoustic neuroma patients were treated with IMRT, VMAT, or SRS. Their incidnece excess relative risk (ERR), excess absolute risk (EAR), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) were estimated using the corresponding therapeutic doses measured at various organs by radio-photoluminescence glass dosimeters (RPLGD) placed inside a humanoid phantom. Results: When a prescription dose was delivered in the planning target volume of the 4 patients, the average organ equivalent doses (OED) at the thyroid, lung, normal liver, colon, bladder, prostate (or ovary), and rectum were measured. The OED decreased as the distance from the primary beam increased. The thyroid received the highest OED compared to other organs. A LAR were estimated that more than 0.03% of AN patients would get radiation-induced cancer. Conclusion: The tyroid was highest radiation-induced cancer risk after radiation treatment for AN. We found that LAR can be increased by the transmitted dose from the primary beam. No modality-specific difference in radiation-induced cancer risk was observed in our study.

  18. Risks of radiation cataracts from interplanetary space missions.

    PubMed

    Lett, J T; Lee, A C; Cox, A B

    1994-11-01

    Recognition of the human risks from radiation exposure during manned missions in deep space has been fostered by international co-operation; interagency collaboration is facilitating their evaluation. Further co-operation can lead, perhaps by the end of this decade, to an evaluation of one of the three major risks, namely radiation cataractogenesis, sufficient for use in the planning of the manned mission to Mars. PMID:11538452

  19. Children’s Exposure to Diagnostic Medical Radiation and Cancer Risk: Epidemiologic and Dosimetric Considerations

    PubMed Central

    Linet, Martha S.; Kim, Kwang pyo; Rajaraman, Preetha

    2009-01-01

    While the etiology of most childhood cancers is largely unknown, epidemiologic studies have consistently found an association between exposure to medical radiation during pregnancy and risk of childhood cancer in offspring. The relation between early life diagnostic radiation exposure and occurrence of pediatric cancer risks is less clear. This review summarizes current and historical estimated doses for common diagnostic radiologic procedures as well as the epidemiologic literature on the role of maternal prenatal, children’s postnatal and parental preconception diagnostic radiologic procedures on subsequent risk of childhood malignancies Risk estimates are presented according to factors such as the year of birth of the child, trimester and medical indication for the procedure, and the number of films taken. The paper also discusses limitations of the methods employed in epidemiologic studies to assess pediatric cancer risks, the effects on clinical practice of the results reported from the epidemiologic studies, and clinical and public health policy implications of the findings. Gaps in understanding and additional research needs are identified. Important research priorities include nationwide surveys to estimate fetal and childhood radiation doses from common diagnostic procedures, and epidemiologic studies to quantify pediatric and lifetime cancer risks from prenatal and early childhood exposures to diagnostic radiography, computed tomography, and fluoroscopically-guided procedures. PMID:19083224

  20. Cancer Risk Assessment for Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, Robert C.; Cruz, Angela; Bors, Karen; Curreri, Peter A. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. This is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within any given clinically normal individual. The radiation health research priorities for enabling long-duration human exploration of space were established in the 1996 NRC Report entitled 'Radiation Hazards to Crews of Interplanetary Missions: Biological Issues and Research Strategies'. This report emphasized that a 15-fold uncertainty in predicting radiation-induced cancer incidence must be reduced before NASA can commit humans to extended interplanetary missions. That report concluded that the great majority of this uncertainty is biologically based, while a minority is physically based due to uncertainties in radiation dosimetry and radiation transport codes. Since that report, the biologically based uncertainty has remained large, and the relatively small uncertainty associated with radiation dosimetry has increased due to the considerations raised by concepts of microdosimetry. In a practical sense, however, the additional uncertainties introduced by microdosimetry are encouraging since they are in a direction of lowered effective dose absorbed through infrequent interactions of any given cell with the high energy particle component of space radiation. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  1. Risks and management of radiation exposure.

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Loren G

    2013-09-01

    High-energy ionizing radiation is harmful. Low-level exposure sources include background, occupational, and medical diagnostics. Radiation disaster incidents include radioactive substance accidents and nuclear power plant accidents. Terrorism and international conflict could trigger intentional radiation disasters that include radiation dispersion devices (RDD) (a radioactive dirty bomb), deliberate exposure to industrial radioactive substances, nuclear power plant sabotage, and nuclear weapon detonation. Nuclear fissioning events such as nuclear power plant incidents and nuclear weapon detonation release radioactive fallout that include radioactive iodine 131, cesium 137, strontium 90, uranium, plutonium, and many other radioactive isotopes. An RDD dirty bomb is likely to spread only one radioactive substance, with the most likely substance being cesium 137. Cobalt 60 and strontium 90 are other RDD dirty bomb possibilities. In a radiation disaster, stable patients should be decontaminated to minimize further radiation exposure. Potassium iodide (KI) is useful for iodine 131 exposure. Prussian blue (ferric hexacyanoferrate) enhances the fecal excretion of cesium via ion exchange. Ca-DTPA (diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid) and Zn-DTPA form stable ionic complexes with plutonium, americium, and curium, which are excreted in the urine. Amifostine enhances chemical and enzymatic repair of damaged DNA. Acute radiation sickness ranges in severity from mild to lethal, which can be assessed by the nausea/vomiting onset/duration, complete blood cell count findings, and neurologic symptoms. PMID:24201986

  2. Population-Attributable Risk Estimates for Risk Factors Associated with Campylobacter Infection, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Schluter, Philip J.; Wilson, Andrew J.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Hall, Gillian; Unicomb, Leanne

    2008-01-01

    In 2001–2002, a multicenter, prospective case-control study involving 1,714 participants >5 years of age was conducted in Australia to identify risk factors for Campylobacter infection. Adjusted population-attributable risks (PARs) were derived for each independent risk factor contained within the final multivariable logistic regression model. Estimated PARs were combined with adjusted (for the >5 years of age eligibility criterion) notifiable disease surveillance data to estimate annual Australian Campylobacter case numbers attributable to each risk factor. Simulated distributions of “credible values” were then generated to model the uncertainty associated with each case number estimate. Among foodborne risk factors, an estimated 50,500 (95% credible interval 10,000–105,500) cases of Campylobacter infection in persons >5 years of age could be directly attributed each year to consumption of chicken in Australia. Our statistical technique could be applied more widely to other communicable diseases that are subject to routine surveillance. PMID:18507899

  3. Uses and Abuses of Models in Radiation Risk Management

    SciTech Connect

    Strom, Daniel J.

    1998-12-10

    This paper is a high-level overview of managing risks to workers, public, and the environment. It discusses the difference between a model and a hypothesis. The need for models in risk assessment is justified, and then it is shown that radiation risk models that are useable in risk management are highly simplistic. The weight of evidence is considered for and against the linear non-threshold (LNT) model for carcinogenesis and heritable ill-health that is currently the basis for radiation risk management. Finally, uses and misuses of this model are considered. It is concluded that the LNT model continues to be suitable for use as the basis for radiation protection.

  4. Risks of secondary malignancies with heterotopic bone radiation therapy for patients younger than 40 years.

    PubMed

    Cadieux, Catherine L; DesRosiers, Colleen; McMullen, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Heterotopic ossification (HO) of the bone is defined as a benign condition in which abnormal bone formation occurs in soft tissue. One of the most common prophylactic treatments for HO is radiation therapy (RT). This study retrospectively reviewed 20 patients younger than the age of 40 who received radiation to prevent HO in a single fraction of 7 Gray. The purpose of this study is to assess the risk of a second malignancy in these patients by recreating their treatment fields and contouring organs at risk to estimate the radiation dose absorbed by normal tissues outside the radiation treatment field. Diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans for each patient were used to recreate treatment fields and to calculate dose to structures of interest. The distance from the field edge to each structure and its depth was recorded. Dose measurements in a water phantom were performed for the range of depths, distances, and field sizes used in the actual treatment plans. Computer-generated doses were compared to estimates based on measurement. The structure dose recorded was the higher dose generated between the 2 methods. Scatter dose was recorded to the rectum, bladder, sigmoid colon, small bowel, ovaries and utero-cervix in female patients, and prostate and gonads in male patients. In some patients, there is considerable dose received by certain organs from scatter because of their proximity to the radiation field. The average dose to the ovarian region was 4.125Gy with a range of 1.085 to 6.228Gy. The risk estimate for these patients ranged from 0.16% to 0.93%. The average total lifetime risk estimate for the bladder in all patients is 0.22% and the average total lifetime risk estimate for the remainder organs in all patients is 1.25%. In conclusions, proper shielding created from multileaf collimators (MLCs), blocks, and shields should always be used when possible. PMID:27156238

  5. Environmental radiation: risk benchmarks or benchmarking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bates, Matthew E; Valverde, L James; Vogel, John T; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    In the wake of the compound March 2011 nuclear disaster at the Fukushima I nuclear power plant in Japan, international public dialogue has repeatedly turned to questions of the accuracy of current risk assessment processes to assess nuclear risks and the adequacy of existing regulatory risk thresholds to protect us from nuclear harm. We confront these issues with an emphasis on learning from the incident in Japan for future US policy discussions. Without delving into a broader philosophical discussion of the general social acceptance of the risk, the relative adequacy of existing US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk thresholds is assessed in comparison with the risk thresholds of federal agencies not currently under heightened public scrutiny. Existing NRC thresholds are found to be among the most conservative in the comparison, suggesting that the agency's current regulatory framework is consistent with larger societal ideals. In turning to risk assessment methodologies, the disaster in Japan does indicate room for growth. Emerging lessons seem to indicate an opportunity to enhance resilience through systemic levels of risk aggregation. Specifically, we believe bringing systemic reasoning to the risk management process requires a framework that (i) is able to represent risk-based knowledge and information about a panoply of threats; (ii) provides a systemic understanding (and representation) of the natural and built environments of interest and their dependencies; and (iii) allows for the rational and coherent valuation of a range of outcome variables of interest, both tangible and intangible. Rather than revisiting the thresholds themselves, we see the goal of future nuclear risk management in adopting and implementing risk assessment techniques that systemically evaluate large-scale socio-technical systems with a view toward enhancing resilience and minimizing the potential for surprise. PMID:21608107

  6. Prophylactic radiotherapy against heterotopic ossification following internal fixation of acetabular fractures: a comparative estimate of risk

    PubMed Central

    Nasr, P; Yip, G; Scaife, J E; House, T; Thomas, S J; Harris, F; Owen, P J; Hull, P

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Radiotherapy (RT) is effective in preventing heterotopic ossification (HO) around acetabular fractures requiring surgical reconstruction. We audited outcomes and estimated risks from RT prophylaxis, and alternatives of indometacin or no prophylaxis. Methods: 34 patients underwent reconstruction of acetabular fractures through a posterior approach, followed by a 8-Gy single fraction. The mean age was 44 years. The mean time from surgery to RT was 1.1 days. The major RT risk is radiation-induced fatal cancer. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) method was used to estimate risk, and compared with a method (Trott and Kemprad) specifically for estimating RT risk for benign disease. These were compared with risks associated with indometacin and no prophylaxis. Results: 28 patients (82%) developed no HO; 6 developed Brooker Class I; and none developed Class II–IV HO. The ICRP method suggests a risk of fatal cancer in the range of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10,000; the Trott and Kemprad method suggests 1 in 3000. For younger patients, this may rise to 1 in 2000; and for elderly patients, it may fall to 1 in 6000. The risk of death from gastric bleeding or perforation from indometacin is 1 in 180 to 1 in 900 in older patients. Without prophylaxis risk of death from reoperation to remove HO is 1 in 4000 to 1 in 30,000. Conclusion: These results are encouraging, consistent with much larger series and endorse our multidisciplinary management. Risk estimates can be used in discussion with patients. Advances in knowledge: The risk from RT prophylaxis is small, it is safer than indometacin and substantially overlaps with the range for no prophylaxis. PMID:25089852

  7. How to estimate the Value at Risk under incomplete information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Schepper, Ann; Heijnen, Bart

    2010-03-01

    A key problem in financial and actuarial research, and particularly in the field of risk management, is the choice of models so as to avoid systematic biases in the measurement of risk. An alternative consists of relaxing the assumption that the probability distribution is completely known, leading to interval estimates instead of point estimates. In the present contribution, we show how this is possible for the Value at Risk, by fixing only a small number of parameters of the underlying probability distribution. We start by deriving bounds on tail probabilities, and we show how a conversion leads to bounds for the Value at Risk. It will turn out that with a maximum of three given parameters, the best estimates are always realized in the case of a unimodal random variable for which two moments and the mode are given. It will also be shown that a lognormal model results in estimates for the Value at Risk that are much closer to the upper bound than to the lower bound.

  8. Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry.

    PubMed

    Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith

    2014-07-21

    The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children. PMID:24957710

  9. Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith; SEDENTEXCT Project Consortium, The

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children.

  10. Comparison of radiation exposure and associated radiation-induced cancer risks from mammography and molecular imaging of the breast

    SciTech Connect

    O'Connor, Michael K.; Li Hua; Rhodes, Deborah J.; Hruska, Carrie B.; Clancy, Conor B.; Vetter, Richard J.

    2010-12-15

    Purpose: Recent studies have raised concerns about exposure to low-dose ionizing radiation from medical imaging procedures. Little has been published regarding the relative exposure and risks associated with breast imaging techniques such as breast specific gamma imaging (BSGI), molecular breast imaging (MBI), or positron emission mammography (PEM). The purpose of this article was to estimate and compare the risks of radiation-induced cancer from mammography and techniques such as PEM, BSGI, and MBI in a screening environment. Methods: The authors used a common scheme for all estimates of cancer incidence and mortality based on the excess absolute risk model from the BEIR VII report. The lifetime attributable risk model was used to estimate the lifetime risk of radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality. All estimates of cancer incidence and mortality were based on a population of 100 000 females followed from birth to age 80 and adjusted for the fraction that survives to various ages between 0 and 80. Assuming annual screening from ages 40 to 80 and from ages 50 to 80, the cumulative cancer incidence and mortality attributed to digital mammography, screen-film mammography, MBI, BSGI, and PEM was calculated. The corresponding cancer incidence and mortality from natural background radiation was calculated as a useful reference. Assuming a 15%-32% reduction in mortality from screening, the benefit/risk ratio for the different imaging modalities was evaluated. Results: Using conventional doses of 925 MBq Tc-99m sestamibi for MBI and BSGI and 370 MBq F-18 FDG for PEM, the cumulative cancer incidence and mortality were found to be 15-30 times higher than digital mammography. The benefit/risk ratio for annual digital mammography was >50:1 for both the 40-80 and 50-80 screening groups, but dropped to 3:1 for the 40-49 age group. If the primary use of MBI, BSGI, and PEM is in women with dense breast tissue, then the administered doses need to be in the range

  11. Cancer risk estimation in Digital Breast Tomosynthesis using GEANT4 Monte Carlo simulations and voxel phantoms.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, P; Baptista, M; Di Maria, S; Vaz, P

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this work was to estimate the risk of radiation induced cancer following the Portuguese breast screening recommendations for Digital Mammography (DM) when applied to Digital Breast Tomosynthesis (DBT) and to evaluate how the risk to induce cancer could influence the energy used in breast diagnostic exams. The organ doses were calculated by Monte Carlo simulations using a female voxel phantom and considering the acquisition of 25 projection images. Single organ cancer incidence risks were calculated in order to assess the total effective radiation induced cancer risk. The screening strategy techniques considered were: DBT in Cranio-Caudal (CC) view and two-view DM (CC and Mediolateral Oblique (MLO)). The risk of cancer incidence following the Portuguese screening guidelines (screening every two years in the age range of 50-80years) was calculated by assuming a single CC DBT acquisition view as standalone screening strategy and compared with two-view DM. The difference in the total effective risk between DBT and DM is quite low. Nevertheless in DBT an increase of risk for the lung is observed with respect to DM. The lung is also the organ that is mainly affected when non-optimal beam energy (in terms of image quality and absorbed dose) is used instead of an optimal one. The use of non-optimal energies could increase the risk of lung cancer incidence by a factor of about 2. PMID:27133140

  12. Managing Lunar and Mars Mission Radiation Risks. Part 1; Cancer Risks, Uncertainties, and Shielding Effectiveness

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2005-01-01

    This document addresses calculations of probability distribution functions (PDFs) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPEs). PDFs are used to test the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Monte-Carlo techniques are used to propagate uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. The cancer risk uncertainty is about four-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missins (<180 d), SPEs present the most significant risk, but one effectively mitigated by shielding. For long-duration (>180 d) lunar or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits. While shielding materials are marginally effective in reducing GCR cancer risks because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativisitc particles, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding. Therefore, improving our knowledge of space radiobiology to narrow uncertainties that lead to wide PDFs is the best approach to ensure radiation protection goals are met for space exploration.

  13. Methodology for estimating radiation dose rates to freshwater biota exposed to radionuclides in the environment

    SciTech Connect

    Blaylock, B.G.; Frank, M.L.; O`Neal, B.R.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to present a methodology for evaluating the potential for aquatic biota to incur effects from exposure to chronic low-level radiation in the environment. Aquatic organisms inhabiting an environment contaminated with radioactivity receive external radiation from radionuclides in water, sediment, and from other biota such as vegetation. Aquatic organisms receive internal radiation from radionuclides ingested via food and water and, in some cases, from radionuclides absorbed through the skin and respiratory organs. Dose rate equations, which have been developed previously, are presented for estimating the radiation dose rate to representative aquatic organisms from alpha, beta, and gamma irradiation from external and internal sources. Tables containing parameter values for calculating radiation doses from selected alpha, beta, and gamma emitters are presented in the appendix to facilitate dose rate calculations. The risk of detrimental effects to aquatic biota from radiation exposure is evaluated by comparing the calculated radiation dose rate to biota to the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) recommended dose rate limit of 0.4 mGy h{sup {minus}1} (1 rad d{sup {minus}1}). A dose rate no greater than 0.4 mGy h{sup {minus}1} to the most sensitive organisms should ensure the protection of populations of aquatic organisms. DOE`s recommended dose rate is based on a number of published reviews on the effects of radiation on aquatic organisms that are summarized in the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements Report No. 109 (NCRP 1991). DOE recommends that if the results of radiological models or dosimetric measurements indicate that a radiation dose rate of 0. 1 mGy h{sup {minus}1} will be exceeded, then a more detailed evaluation of the potential ecological consequences of radiation exposure to endemic populations should be conducted.

  14. Time-dependent radiation dose estimations during interplanetary space flights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobynde, M. I.; Shprits, Y.; Drozdov, A.

    2015-12-01

    Time-dependent radiation dose estimations during interplanetary space flights 1,2Dobynde M.I., 2,3Drozdov A.Y., 2,4Shprits Y.Y.1Skolkovo institute of science and technology, Moscow, Russia 2University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA 3Lomonosov Moscow State University Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow, Russia4Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USASpace radiation is the main restriction for long-term interplanetary space missions. It induces degradation of external components and propagates inside providing damage to internal environment. Space radiation particles and induced secondary particle showers can lead to variety of damage to astronauts in short- and long- term perspective. Contribution of two main sources of space radiation- Sun and out-of-heliosphere space varies in time in opposite phase due to the solar activity state. Currently the only habituated mission is the international interplanetary station that flights on the low Earth orbit. Besides station shell astronauts are protected with the Earth magnetosphere- a natural shield that prevents significant damage for all humanity. Current progress in space exploration tends to lead humanity out of magnetosphere bounds. With the current study we make estimations of spacecraft parameters and astronauts damage for long-term interplanetary flights. Applying time dependent model of GCR spectra and data on SEP spectra we show the time dependence of the radiation in a human phantom inside the shielding capsule. We pay attention to the shielding capsule design, looking for an optimal geometry parameters and materials. Different types of particles affect differently on the human providing more or less harm to the tissues. Incident particles provide a large amount of secondary particles while propagating through the shielding capsule. We make an attempt to find an optimal combination of shielding capsule parameters, namely material and thickness, that will effectively decrease

  15. Radiation-induced liver disease in three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy for primary liver carcinoma: The risk factors and hepatic radiation tolerance

    SciTech Connect

    Liang Shixiong; Zhu Xiaodong; Xu Zhiyong

    2006-06-01

    Purpose: To identify risk factors relevant to radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) and to determine the hepatic tolerance to radiation. Methods and Materials: The data of 109 primary liver carcinomas (PLC) treated with hypofractionated three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) were analyzed. Seventeen patients were diagnosed with RILD and 13 of 17 died of it. Results: The risk factors for RILD were late T stage, large gross tumor volume, presence of portal vein thrombosis, association with Child-Pugh Grade B cirrhosis, and acute hepatic toxicity. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that the severity of hepatic cirrhosis was a unique independent predictor. For Child-Pugh Grade A patients, the hepatic radiation tolerance was as follows: (1) Mean dose to normal liver (MDTNL) of 23 Gy was tolerable. (2) For cumulative dose-volume histogram, the tolerable volume percentages would be less than: V{sub 5} of 86%, V{sub 1} of 68%, V{sub 15} of 59%, V{sub 2} of 49%, V{sub 25} of 35%, V{sub 3} of 28%, V{sub 35} of 25%, and V{sub 4} of 20%. (3) Tolerable MDTNL could be estimated by MDTNL (Gy) = -1.686 + 0.023 * normal liver volume (cm{sup 3}). Conclusion: The predominant risk factor for RILD was the severity of hepatic cirrhosis. The hepatic tolerance to radiation could be estimated by dosimetric parameters.

  16. Risk estimates for deterministic health effects of inhaled weapons grade plutonium.

    PubMed

    Scott, Bobby R; Peterson, Vern L

    2003-09-01

    Risk estimates for deterministic effects of inhaled weapons-grade plutonium (WG Pu) are needed to evaluate potential serious harm to (1) U.S. Department of Energy nuclear workers from accidental or other work-place releases of WG Pu; and (2) the public from terrorist actions resulting in the release of WG Pu to the environment. Deterministic health effects (the most serious radiobiological consequences to humans) can arise when large amounts of WG Pu are taken into the body. Inhalation is considered the most likely route of intake during work-place accidents or during a nuclear terrorism incident releasing WG Pu to the environment. Our current knowledge about radiation-related harm is insufficient for generating precise estimates of risk for a given WG Pu exposure scenario. This relates largely to uncertainties associated with currently available risk and dosimetry models. Thus, rather than generating point estimates of risk, distributions that account for variability/uncertainty are needed to properly characterize potential harm to humans from a given WG Pu exposure scenario. In this manuscript, we generate and summarize risk distributions for deterministic radiation effects in the lungs of nuclear workers from inhaled WG Pu particles (standard isotopic mix). These distributions were developed using NUREG/CR-4214 risk models and time-dependent, dose conversion factor data based on Publication 30 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Dose conversion factors based on ICRP Publication 30 are more relevant to deterministic effects than are the dose conversion factors based on ICRP Publication 66, which relate to targets for stochastic effects. Risk distributions that account for NUREG/CR-4214 parameter and model uncertainties were generated using the Monte Carlo method. Risks were evaluated for both lethality (from radiation pneumonitis) and morbidity (due to radiation-induced respiratory dysfunction) and were found to depend strongly on absorbed

  17. Modeling of Radiation Risks for Human Space Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fletcher, Graham

    2004-01-01

    Prior to any human space flight, calculations of radiation risks are used to determine the acceptable scope of astronaut activity. Using the supercomputing facilities at NASA Ames Research Center, Ames researchers have determined the damage probabilities of DNA functional groups by space radiation. The data supercede those used in the current Monte Carlo model for risk assessment. One example is the reaction of DNA with hydroxyl radical produced by the interaction of highly energetic particles from space radiation with water molecules in the human body. This reaction is considered an important cause of DNA mutations, although its mechanism is not well understood.

  18. Risky business: challenges and successes in military radiation risk communication.

    PubMed

    Melanson, Mark A; Geckle, Lori S; Davidson, Bethney A

    2012-01-01

    Given the general public's overall lack of knowledge about radiation and their heightened fear of its harmful effects, effective communication of radiation risks is often difficult. This is especially true when it comes to communicating the radiation risks stemming from military operations. Part of this difficulty stems from a lingering distrust of the military that harkens back to the controversy surrounding Veteran exposures to Agent Orange during the Vietnam War along with the often classified nature of many military operations. Additionally, there are unique military exposure scenarios, such as the use of nuclear weapons and combat use of depleted uranium as antiarmor munitions that are not found in the civilian sector. Also, the large, diverse nature of the military makes consistent risk communication across the vast and widespread organization very difficult. This manuscript highlights and discusses both the common and the distinctive challenges of effectively communicating military radiation risks, to include communicating through the media. The paper also introduces the Army's Health Risk Communication Program and its role in assisting in effective risk communication efforts. The authors draw on their extensive collective experience to share 3 risk communication success stories that were accomplished through the innovative use of a matrixed, team approach that combines both health physics and risk communication expertise. PMID:22815169

  19. Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Gregory A.; Simonsen, Lisa; Huff, Janice L.

    2016-01-01

    Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are concerns for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks may include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks may include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and 9 protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

  20. Sensitivity of risk estimates to wildlife bioaccumulation factors in ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Karustis, C.G.; Brewer, R.A.

    1995-12-31

    The concept of conservatism in risk assessment is well established. However, overly conservative assumptions may result in risk estimates that incorrectly predict remediation goals. Therefore, realistic assumptions should be applied in risk assessment whenever possible. A sensitivity analysis was performed on conservative (i.e. bioaccumulation factor = 1) and scientifically-derived wildlife bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) utilized to calculate risks during a terrestrial ecological risk assessment (ERA). In the first approach, 100% bioaccumulation of contaminants was assumed to estimate the transfer of contaminants through the terrestrial food chain. In the second approach, scientifically-derived BAFs were selected from the literature. For one of the measurement species selected, total risks calculated during the first approach were higher than those calculated during the second approach by two orders of magnitude. However, potential risks due to individual contaminants were not necessarily higher using the conservative approach. Potential risk due to contaminants with low actual bioaccumulation were exaggerated while potential risks due to contaminants with greater than 100% bioaccumulation were underestimated. Therefore, the use of a default of 100% bioaccumulation (BAF = 1) for all contaminants encountered during an ERA could result in cases where contaminants are incorrectly identified as risk drivers, and the calculation of incorrect ecological risk-based cleanup goals. The authors suggest using site-specific or literature-derived BAFs whenever possible and realistic BAF estimates, based upon factors such as log K{sub ow}, when BAFs are unavailable.

  1. Radiation and cancer risk in atomic-bomb survivors.

    PubMed

    Kodama, K; Ozasa, K; Okubo, T

    2012-03-01

    With the aim of accurately assessing the effects of radiation exposure in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation has, over several decades, conducted studies of the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort, comprising 93 000 atomic-bomb survivors and 27 000 controls. Solid cancer: the recent report on solid cancer incidence found that at age 70 years following exposure at age 30 years, solid cancer rates increase by about 35%  Gy(-1) for men and 58% Gy(-1) for women. Age-at-exposure is an important risk modifier. In the case of lung cancer, cigarette smoking has been found to be an important risk modifier. Radiation has similar effects on first-primary and second-primary cancer risks. Finally, radiation-associated increases in cancer rates appear to persist throughout life. Leukaemia: the recent report on leukaemia mortality suggests that radiation effects on leukaemia mortality persisted for more than 50 years. Moreover, significant dose-response for myelodysplastic syndrome was observed in Nagasaki LSS members even 40-60 years after radiation exposure. Future perspective: given the continuing solid cancer increase in the survivor population, the LSS will likely continue to provide important new information on radiation exposure and solid cancer risks for another 15-20 years, especially for those exposed at a young age. PMID:22394591

  2. Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim,Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2012-01-01

    Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

  3. IAEA experience in communicating radiation risks through the RPOP website.

    PubMed

    Rehani, M M; Holmberg, O

    2015-07-01

    The authors report here their successful experience of communicating information to health professionals, patients and the public on benefits and risks of ionising radiation in medical applications. The approaches used have been based on giving importance to clinical benefits against risks, as well as safety in use against risk of use. Communicating brief messages against catchy questions with positive and pragmatic approach resulted in making website on radiation protection of patients (RPOP) as the top website of the world in this area. Credibility of information has been maintained. The results show immense outreach in 213 countries/territories. PMID:25813478

  4. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

  5. Do changes in biomarkers from space radiation reflect dose or risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, A.

    The space environment is made up of many different kinds of radiation so that the proper use of biomarkers is essential to estimate radiation risk. This presentation will evaluate differences between biomarkers of dose and risk and demonstrate why they should not be confused following radiation exposures in deep space. Dose is a physical quantity, while risk is a biological quantity. Many examples exist w ereh dose or changes in biomarkers of dose are inappropriately used as predictors of risk. Without information on the biology of the system, the biomarkers of dose provide little help in predicting risk in tissues or radiation exposure types where no excess risk can be demonstrated. Many of these biomarkers of dose only reflect changes in radiation dose or exposure. However, these markers are often incorrectly used to predict risk. For example, exposure of the trachea or of the deep lung to high-LET alpha particles results in similar changes in the biomarker chromosome damage in these two tissues. Such an observation would predict that the risk for cancer induction would be similar in these two tissues. It has been noted , however, that there has never been a tracheal tumor observed in rats that inhaled radon, but with the same exposure, large numbers of tumors were produced in the deep lung. The biology of the different tissues is the major determinant of the risk rather than the radiation dose. Recognition of this fact has resulted in the generation of tissue weighting factors for use in radiation protection. When tissue weighting factors are used the values derived are still called "dose". It is important to recognize that tissue specific observations have been corrected to reflect risk, and therefore should no longer be viewed as dose. The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) is also used to estimate radiation risk. The use of biomarkers to derive RBE is a difficult since it involves the use of a biological response to a standard low-LET reference radiation

  6. Surface daytime net radiation estimation using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Jiang, Bo; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Shunlin; Zhang, Xiaotong; Xiao, Zhiqiang

    2014-11-11

    Net all-wave surface radiation (Rn) is one of the most important fundamental parameters in various applications. However, conventional Rn measurements are difficult to collect because of the high cost and ongoing maintenance of recording instruments. Therefore, various empirical Rn estimation models have been developed. This study presents the results of two artificial neural network (ANN) models (general regression neural networks (GRNN) and Neuroet) to estimate Rn globally from multi-source data, including remotely sensed products, surface measurements, and meteorological reanalysis products. Rn estimates provided by the two ANNs were tested against in-situ radiation measurements obtained from 251 global sites between 1991–2010 both in global mode (all data were used to fit the models) and in conditional mode (the data were divided into four subsets and the models were fitted separately). Based on the results obtained from extensive experiments, it has been proved that the two ANNs were superior to linear-based empirical models in both global and conditional modes and that the GRNN performed better and was more stable than Neuroet. The GRNN estimates had a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.92, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 34.27 W·m–2 , and a bias of –0.61 W·m–2 in global mode based on the validation dataset. In conclusion, ANN methods are a potentially powerful tool for global Rn estimation.

  7. Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

    2015-01-01

    Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  8. [Risks associated to ionizing radiation from natural sources].

    PubMed

    Laurier, Dominique; Gay, Didier

    2015-01-01

    This article presents an overview of current knowledge about natural sources of radiation exposure and potential associated health risks. Natural radioactivity constitutes the main source of exposure to ionizing radiation of the French and world population. Exposure is both external (telluric and cosmic rays) and internal (radon inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides from food and drinking water). It varies according to altitude, geology, and individual way of life (housing, food habits). Epidemiological studies demonstrated an excess risk of lung cancer associated to domestic radon exposure, ranking radon at the second place of known lung cancer risk factors after smoking. Data currently available do not allow concluding to risks associated to other natural sources of exposure to ionizing radiation. PMID:25842437

  9. Radiation and cancer risk: a continuing challenge for epidemiologists

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides a perspective on epidemiological research on radiation and cancer, a field that has evolved over its six decade history. The review covers the current framework for assessing radiation risk and persistent questions about the details of these risks: is there a threshold and more generally, what is the shape of the dose-response relationship? How do risks vary over time and with age? What factors modify the risk of radiation? The example of radon progeny and lung cancer is considered as a case study, illustrating the modeling of epidemiological data to derive quantitative models and the coherence of the epidemiological and biological evidence. Finally, the manuscript considers the need for ongoing research, even in the face of research over a 60-year span. PMID:21489214

  10. Spectral estimates of net radiation and soil heat flux

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Daughtry, C.S.T.; Kustas, W.P.; Moran, M.S.; Pinter, P. J., Jr.; Jackson, R. D.; Brown, P.W.; Nichols, W.D.; Gay, L.W.

    1990-01-01

    Conventional methods of measuring surface energy balance are point measurements and represent only a small area. Remote sensing offers a potential means of measuring outgoing fluxes over large areas at the spatial resolution of the sensor. The objective of this study was to estimate net radiation (Rn) and soil heat flux (G) using remotely sensed multispectral data acquired from an aircraft over large agricultural fields. Ground-based instruments measured Rn and G at nine locations along the flight lines. Incoming fluxes were also measured by ground-based instruments. Outgoing fluxes were estimated using remotely sensed data. Remote Rn, estimated as the algebraic sum of incoming and outgoing fluxes, slightly underestimated Rn measured by the ground-based net radiometers. The mean absolute errors for remote Rn minus measured Rn were less than 7%. Remote G, estimated as a function of a spectral vegetation index and remote Rn, slightly overestimated measured G; however, the mean absolute error for remote G was 13%. Some of the differences between measured and remote values of Rn and G are associated with differences in instrument designs and measurement techniques. The root mean square error for available energy (Rn - G) was 12%. Thus, methods using both ground-based and remotely sensed data can provide reliable estimates of the available energy which can be partitioned into sensible and latent heat under nonadvective conditions. ?? 1990.

  11. Attributable risk for radiation in the presence of other risk factors.

    PubMed

    Cologne, John; Cullings, Harry; Furukawa, Kyoji; Ross, Phillip

    2010-11-01

    Two motivations for studying radiation risk are (1) to quantify the magnitude of risk as an aid to setting radiation protection standards and (2) to understand causality as an aid to assigning compensation for radiation exposed individuals whose disease or death may have been related to radiation exposure. Although it has long been known that radiation risk is modified by factors such as sex, age, and time, it is now apparent that radiation risk may also be modified by other risk factors, such as smoking, inflammation, genotype, and certain pathogens. Even apart from considerations of etiological interaction, the relative contribution of radiation to total burden of disease or death may depend on the level of background (spontaneous) risk of disease or death owing to those other factors if the joint effects do not multiply. Therefore, ignoring those other factors in assessing probability of causation for radiation (attributable fraction in epidemiological data) involves making a strong assumption about the joint effects. The concepts are discussed in detail and illustrated using results from studies on the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors. PMID:20938230

  12. Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.

    1984-12-01

    No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports.

  13. Inferences, Risk Modeling, and Prediction of Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation.

    PubMed

    Dainiak, Nicholas

    2016-03-01

    The combined expertise of radiation epidemiologists and laboratory experimentalists is required to accurately define health risks from exposure to a low/very low radiation dose. Although stochastic risk can be estimated when a known threshold dose is exceeded, risk must be inferred from data transference at sub-threshold doses. The clinician's dilemma is evident when complying with accepted medical practice that is complicated by potential long-term, adverse outcomes. By contrast, radiation protection regulators must make prudent judgments without complete knowledge of the scope and consequences of their actions. Only by combining the strengths of epidemiological and experimental laboratory approaches can accurate predictive modeling be achieved after exposure to a low/very low dose. PMID:26808880

  14. Estimation of myocardial volume at risk from CT angiography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Liangjia; Gao, Yi; Mohan, Vandana; Stillman, Arthur; Faber, Tracy; Tannenbaum, Allen

    2011-03-01

    The determination of myocardial volume at risk distal to coronary stenosis provides important information for prognosis and treatment of coronary artery disease. In this paper, we present a novel computational framework for estimating the myocardial volume at risk in computed tomography angiography (CTA) imagery. Initially, epicardial and endocardial surfaces, and coronary arteries are extracted using an active contour method. Then, the extracted coronary arteries are projected onto the epicardial surface, and each point on this surface is associated with its closest coronary artery using the geodesic distance measurement. The likely myocardial region at risk on the epicardial surface caused by a stenosis is approximated by the region in which all its inner points are associated with the sub-branches distal to the stenosis on the coronary artery tree. Finally, the likely myocardial volume at risk is approximated by the volume in between the region at risk on the epicardial surface and its projection on the endocardial surface, which is expected to yield computational savings over risk volume estimation using the entire image volume. Furthermore, we expect increased accuracy since, as compared to prior work using the Euclidean distance, we employ the geodesic distance in this work. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on pig heart CTA datasets.

  15. Estimates of the radiation environment for a nuclear rocket engine

    SciTech Connect

    Courtney, J.C.; Manohara, H.M.; Williams, M.L.

    1992-12-31

    Ambitious missions in deep space, such as manned expeditions to Mars, require nuclear propulsion if they are to be accomplished in a reasonable length of time. Current technology is adequate to support the use of nuclear fission as a source of energy for propulsion; however, problems associated with neutrons and gammas leaking from the rocket engine must be addressed. Before manned or unmanned space flights are attempted, an extensive ground test program on the rocket engine must be completed. This paper compares estimated radiation levels and nuclear heating rates in and around the rocket engine for both a ground test and space environments.

  16. Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Ono, Kyoko; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Oka, Tosihiro; Kami, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan

    2015-01-01

    After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March)," "deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June)," "20-mSv exposure," and "100-mSv exposure." The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d-much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident. PMID:26359666

  17. Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

    PubMed Central

    Murakami, Michio; Ono, Kyoko; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Oka, Tosihiro; Kami, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan

    2015-01-01

    After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. “rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March),” “deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June),” “20-mSv exposure,” and “100-mSv exposure.” The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d—much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident. PMID:26359666

  18. Radiation effects on cancer risks in the Life Span Study cohort.

    PubMed

    Kodama, Kazunori; Ozasa, Kotaro; Katayama, Hiroaki; Shore, Roy E; Okubo, Toshiteru

    2012-10-01

    To determine late health effects of radiation in atomic bomb survivors, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation has been conducting studies on the Life Span Study (LSS) population, which consists of 93,000 atomic bomb survivors and 27,000 controls. A recent report on the incidence of solid cancers estimates that at the age of 70 y, after exposure at the age of 30 y, solid-cancer rates increase by about 35% per Gy for men and 58% per Gy for women. The age-at-exposure is an important risk modifier. Furthermore, it seems that radiation-associated increases in cancer rates persist throughout life. In addition, radiation has similar effects upon first-primary and second-primary cancer risks. A recent report on leukemia mortality suggested that the effect of radiation on leukemia mortality persisted for more than five decades. In addition, a significant dose-response for myelodysplastic syndrome is found in Nagasaki LSS members 40-60 y after radiation exposure. In view of the nature of the continuing increase in solid cancers, the LSS should continue to provide important new information on cancer risks, as most survivors still alive today were exposed to the atomic bomb radiation under the age of 20 y and are now entering their cancer-prone years. PMID:22908358

  19. Risk of a second cancer from scattered radiation in acoustic neuroma treatment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Myonggeun; Lee, Hyunho; Sung, Jiwon; Shin, Dongoh; Park, Sungho; Chung, Weon Kuu; Jahng, Geon-Ho; Kim, Dong Wook

    2014-06-01

    The present study aimed to compare the risk of a secondary cancer from scattered and leakage doses in patients receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Four acoustic neuroma patients were treated with IMRT, VMAT, or SRS. Their excess relative risk (ERR), excess absolute risk (EAR), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of a secondary cancer were estimated using the corresponding secondary doses measured at various organs by using radio-photoluminescence glass dosimeters (RPLGD) placed inside a humanoid phantom. When a prescription dose was delivered in the planning target volume of the 4 patients, the average organ equivalent doses (OED) at the thyroid, lung, liver, bowel, bladder, prostate (or ovary), and rectum were 14.6, 1.7, 0.9, 0.8, 0.6, 0.6, and 0.6 cGy, respectively, for IMRT whereas they were 19.1, 1.8, 2.0, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, and 0.4 cGy, respectively, for VMAT, and 22.8, 4.6, 1.4, 0.7, 0.5, 0.5, and 0.5 cGy, respectively, for SRS. The OED decreased as the distance from the primary beam increased. The thyroid received the highest OED compared to other organs. A lifetime attributable risk evaluation estimated that more than 0.03% of acoustic neuroma (AN) patients would get radiation-induced cancer within 20 years of receiving radiation therapy. The organ with the highest radiation-induced cancer risk after radiation treatment for AN was the thyroid. We found that the LAR could be increased by the transmitted dose from the primary beam. No modality-specific difference in radiation-induced cancer risk was observed in our study.

  20. How Galactic Cosmic Ray models affect the estimation of radiation exposure in space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mrigakshi, Alankrita Isha; Matthiä, Daniel; Berger, Thomas; Reitz, Günther; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.

    2013-03-01

    The radiation environment in space is a major concern for human spaceflight because of the adverse effects of high levels of radiation on astronauts' health. Therefore, it is essential to perform radiation risk assessments already during the concept studies of a manned mission. Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) have been identified to be one of the primary sources of radiation exposure in space.This work presents an evaluation of the radiation exposure caused by GCR between 1970 and 2011 in near-Earth interplanetary space and at the orbit of the International Space Station (ISS) by making numerical simulations with the Monte-Carlo framework GEANT4. Commonly used GCR models - CREME96, CREME2009 and Badhwar-O'Neill2010 are used to describe the GCR spectra and the differences arising from the application of these different models in terms of absorbed dose and dose equivalent rates are investigated. Additionally, the depth distribution of the dose quantities and the relative contribution of particles with different energies to the total exposure during solar maximum and minimum conditions are studied.The differences in the spectra, described by the models, result in considerable differences in the estimation of the radiation exposure.

  1. Estimation of the environmental risk of regulated river flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Latu, Kilisimasi; Malano, Hector M.; Costelloe, Justin F.; Peterson, Tim J.

    2014-09-01

    A commonly accepted paradigm in environmental flow management is that a regulated river flow regime should mimic the natural hydrological regime to sustain the key attributes of freshwater ecosystems. Estimation of the environmental risk arising from flow regulation needs to consider all aspects of the flow regime when applied to water allocation decisions. We present a holistic, dynamic and robust approach that is based on a statistical analysis of the entire flow regime and accounts for flow stress indicators to produce an environmental risk time series based on the consequence of departures from the optimum flow range of a river or reach. When applied to a catchment, (Campaspe River, southern Australia) the model produced a dynamic and robust environmental risk time series that clearly showed that when the observed river flow is drawn away from the optimum range of environmental flow demand, the environmental risk increased. In addition, the model produced risk time series showing that the Campaspe River has reversed seasonal patterns of river flow due to water releases during summer periods, which altered the flow nature of the river. Hence, this resulted in higher environmental risk occurring during summer but lower in winter periods. Furthermore, we found that the vulnerability and coefficient of variation indices have the highest contributions to consequence in comparison to other indices used to calculate environmental risk.

  2. Estimation of earthquake risk curves of physical building damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raschke, Mathias; Janouschkowetz, Silke; Fischer, Thomas; Simon, Christian

    2014-05-01

    In this study, a new approach to quantify seismic risks is presented. Here, the earthquake risk curves for the number of buildings with a defined physical damage state are estimated for South Africa. Therein, we define the physical damage states according to the current European macro-seismic intensity scale (EMS-98). The advantage of such kind of risk curve is that its plausibility can be checked more easily than for other types. The earthquake risk curve for physical building damage can be compared with historical damage and their corresponding empirical return periods. The number of damaged buildings from historical events is generally explored and documented in more detail than the corresponding monetary losses. The latter are also influenced by different economic conditions, such as inflation and price hikes. Further on, the monetary risk curve can be derived from the developed risk curve of physical building damage. The earthquake risk curve can also be used for the validation of underlying sub-models such as the hazard and vulnerability modules.

  3. [Evaluation of radiation risk associated with endodontic radiography].

    PubMed

    Danforth, R A; Torabainejad, M

    1991-01-01

    Endodontic patients are sometimes concerned about the risks of tumors or cataracts from radiation exposure during root canal therapy. By using established dose and risk information, we calculated the extent of these risks. The chance of getting leukemia from an endodontic x-ray survey using 90 kVp was found to be 1 in 7.69 million, the same as the risk of dying from cancer from smoking 0.94 cigarettes or from an auto accident when driving 3.7 km. Risk of thyroid gland neoplasia was 1 in 667,000 (smoking 11.6 cigarettes, driving 45 km) and risk of salivary gland neoplasia 1 in 1.35 million (smoking 5.4 cigarettes, driving 21.1 km). Use of 70 kVp radiography reduced these risks only slightly. To receive the threshold dose to eyes to produce cataract changes, a patient would have to undergo 10,900 endodontic surveys. PMID:1782436

  4. Evidence Report: Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Other Degenerative Tissue Effects from Radiation Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patel, Zarana; Huff, Janice; Saha, Janapriya; Wang, Minli; Blattnig, Steve; Wu, Honglu; Cucinotta, Francis

    2015-01-01

    (SI unit for ionizing radiation dosage, i.e. one joule of radiation energy per one kilogram of matter)) to facilitate risk prediction. This risk has considerable uncertainty associated with it, and no acceptable model for projecting degenerative tissue risk is currently available. In particular, risk factors such as obesity, alcohol, and tobacco use can act as confounding factors that contribute to the large uncertainties. The PELs could be violated under certain scenarios, including following a large SPE (solar proton event) or long-term GCR (galactic cosmic ray) exposure. Specifically, for a Mars mission, the accumulated dose is sufficiently high that epidemiology data and preliminary risk estimates suggest a significant risk for cardiovascular disease. Ongoing research in this area is intended to provide the evidence base for accurate risk quantification to determine criticality for extended duration missions. Data specific to the space radiation environment must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of this risk to decrease the uncertainty in current PELs and to determine if additional protection strategies are required. New research results could lead to estimates of cumulative radiation risk from CNS and degenerative tissue diseases that, when combined with the cancer risk, may have major negative impacts on mission design, costs, schedule, and crew selection. The current report amends an earlier report (Human Research Program Requirements Document, HRP-47052, Rev. C, dated Jan 2009) in order to provide an update of evidence since 2009.

  5. Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing

    PubMed Central

    Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C

    2016-01-01

    Background Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Objective Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. Methods We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). Results We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. Conclusions CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk. PMID:26800642

  6. Does internal climate variability impact radiative feedback estimates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonko, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    A lot of attention has been focussed on the inter-model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity and the radiative feedbacks that contribute to it as a measure of our uncertainty of the climate system's response to external forcing. But how accurate is an estimate of this uncertainty derived purely from model-to-model differences? Recent work has highlighted the importance of factors such as differences resulting from methodology (Klocke et al., 2013) as well as internal climate variability (Deser et al., 2012), which have historically not been included in multi-model assessments. While an increasing number of models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) provide several ensemble members for certain simulations, the ensemble sizes are generally not large enough to fully sample climate's intrinsic variability. Here we use a large 40 member ensemble of simulations performed with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 to asses the impact of internal variability on radiative feedback estimates. We find that the spread in individual feedbacks among ensemble members corresponds to 25% of CMIP3 inter-model spread. Deser, C., A. Phillips, V. Bourdette and H. Teng (2012): Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability, Clim. Dyn., 38, 527-546. Klocke, D., J. Quaas and B. Stevens (2013): Assessment of different metrics for physical climate feedbacks, Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1757-1

  7. Spectral estimators of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in corn canopies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallo, K. P.; Daughtry, C. S. T.; Bauer, M. E.

    1985-01-01

    Most models of crop growth and yield require an estimate of canopy leaf area index (LAI) or absorption of radiation. Relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by corn canopies and the spectral reflectance of the canopies were investigated. Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat MSS band radiometer. From planting to silking, the three spectrally predicted vegetation indices examined were associated with more than 95 percent of the variability in absorbed PAR. The relationships developed between absorbed PAR and the three indices were evaluated with reflectance factor data acquired from corn canopies planted in 1979 through 1982. Seasonal cumulations of measured LAI and each of the three indices were associated with greater than 50 percent of the variation in final grain yields from the test years. Seasonal cumulations of daily absorbed PAR were associated with up to 73 percent of the variation in final grain yields. Absorbed PAR, cumulated through the growing season, is a better indicator of yield than cumulated leaf area index. Absorbed PAR may be estimated reliably from spectral reflectance data of crop canopies.

  8. Spectral estimators of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in corn canopies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallo, K. P.; Daughtry, C. S. T.; Bauer, M. E.

    1984-01-01

    Most models of crop growth and yield require an estimate of canopy leaf area index (LAI) or absorption of radiation. Relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by corn canopies and the spectral reflectance of the canopies were investigated. Reflectance factor data were acquired with a LANDSAT MSS band radiometer. From planting to silking, the three spectrally predicted vegetation indices examined were associated with more than 95% of the variability in absorbed PAR. The relationships developed between absorbed PAR and the three indices were evaluated with reflectance factor data acquired from corn canopies planted in 1979 through 1982. Seasonal cumulations of measured LAI and each of the three indices were associated with greater than 50% of the variation in final grain yields from the test years. Seasonal cumulations of daily absorbed PAR were associated with up to 73% of the variation in final grain yields. Absorbed PAR, cumulated through the growing season, is a better indicator of yield than cumulated leaf area index. Absorbed PAR may be estimated reliably from spectral reflectance data of crop canopies.

  9. Radiation Dose Estimation Using Realistic Postures with PIMAL

    SciTech Connect

    Akkurt, Hatice; Wiarda, Dorothea; Eckerman, Keith F

    2010-12-01

    For correct radiation dose assessment, it is important to take the posture into account. A computational phantom with moving arms and legs was previously developed to address this need. Further, an accompanying graphical user interface (GUI), called PIMAL, was developed to enable dose estimation using realistic postures in a user-friendly manner such that the analyst's time could be substantially reduced. The importance of the posture for correct dose estimation has been demonstrated with a few case studies in earlier analyses. The previous version of PIMAL was somewhat limited in its features (i.e., it contained only a hermaphrodite phantom model and allowed only isotropic source definition). Currently GUI is being further enhanced by incorporating additional phantom models, improving the features, and increasing the user friendliness in general. This paper describes recent updates to the PIMAL software. In this summary recent updates to the PIMAL software, which aims to perform radiation transport simulations for phantom models in realistic postures in a user-friendly manner, are described. In future work additional phantom models, including hybrid phantom models, will be incorporated. In addition to further enhancements, a library of input files for the case studies that have been analyzed to date will be included in the PIMAL.

  10. Radiation signature on exposed cells: Relevance in dose estimation.

    PubMed

    Perumal, Venkatachalam; Gnana Sekaran, Tamizh Selvan; Raavi, Venkateswarlu; Basheerudeen, Safa Abdul Syed; Kanagaraj, Karthik; Chowdhury, Amith Roy; Paul, Solomon Fd

    2015-09-28

    The radiation is considered as a double edged sword, as its beneficial and detrimental effects have been demonstrated. The potential benefits are being exploited to its maximum by adopting safe handling of radionuclide stipulated by the regulatory agencies. While the occupational workers are monitored by personnel monitoring devices, for general publics, it is not a regular practice. However, it can be achieved by using biomarkers with a potential for the radiation triage and medical management. An ideal biomarker to adopt in those situations should be rapid, specific, sensitive, reproducible, and able to categorize the nature of exposure and could provide a reliable dose estimation irrespective of the time of the exposures. Since cytogenetic markers shown to have many advantages relatively than other markers, the origins of various chromosomal abnormalities induced by ionizing radiations along with dose-response curves generated in the laboratory are presented. Current status of the gold standard dicentric chromosome assay, micronucleus assay, translocation measurement by fluorescence in-situ hybridization and an emerging protein marker the γ-H2AX assay are discussed with our laboratory data. With the wide choice of methods, an appropriate assay can be employed based on the net. PMID:26435777

  11. Recent Updates to Radiation Organ Dose Estimation Tool PIMAL

    SciTech Connect

    Akkurt, Hatice; Wiarda, Dorothea; Eckerman, Keith F

    2011-01-01

    A computational phantom with moving arms and legs and an accompanying graphical user interface, PIMAL, was previously developed to enable radiation dose estimation for different postures in a user-friendly manner. This initial version of the software was useful in adjusting the posture, generating the corresponding MCNP input file, and performing the radiation transport simulations for dose calculations using MCNP5 or MCNPX. However, it only included one mathematical phantom model (hermaphrodite) and allowed only isotropic point sources. Recently, the software was enhanced by adding two more mathematical phantom models, a male and female, and the source features were enhanced significantly by adding internal and external source options in a pull-down menu. Although the initial version of the software included only a mathematical hermaphrodite phantom, the features and models in the software are constantly being enhanced by adding more phantoms as well as other options to enable dose assessment for different configurations/cases in a user-friendly manner. In this latest version of the software, ICRP's recently released reference male and female voxel phantoms are included in a pull-down menu. The male and female models are described using 7 and 14 million voxels, respectively. Currently, the software is being modified further to include the International Commission on Radiation Protection's (ICRP) reference male and female voxel phantoms. Additionally, some case studies are being implemented and included in a library of input files. This paper describes recent updates to the software.

  12. Radiation signature on exposed cells: Relevance in dose estimation

    PubMed Central

    Perumal, Venkatachalam; Gnana Sekaran, Tamizh Selvan; Raavi, Venkateswarlu; Basheerudeen, Safa Abdul Syed; Kanagaraj, Karthik; Chowdhury, Amith Roy; Paul, Solomon FD

    2015-01-01

    The radiation is considered as a double edged sword, as its beneficial and detrimental effects have been demonstrated. The potential benefits are being exploited to its maximum by adopting safe handling of radionuclide stipulated by the regulatory agencies. While the occupational workers are monitored by personnel monitoring devices, for general publics, it is not a regular practice. However, it can be achieved by using biomarkers with a potential for the radiation triage and medical management. An ideal biomarker to adopt in those situations should be rapid, specific, sensitive, reproducible, and able to categorize the nature of exposure and could provide a reliable dose estimation irrespective of the time of the exposures. Since cytogenetic markers shown to have many advantages relatively than other markers, the origins of various chromosomal abnormalities induced by ionizing radiations along with dose-response curves generated in the laboratory are presented. Current status of the gold standard dicentric chromosome assay, micronucleus assay, translocation measurement by fluorescence in-situ hybridization and an emerging protein marker the γ-H2AX assay are discussed with our laboratory data. With the wide choice of methods, an appropriate assay can be employed based on the net. PMID:26435777

  13. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  14. Ionising radiation and risk of death from leukaemia and lymphoma in radiation-monitored workers (INWORKS): an international cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Leuraud, Klervi; Richardson, David B; Cardis, Elisabeth; Daniels, Robert D; Gillies, Michael; O'Hagan, Jacqueline A; Hamra, Ghassan B; Haylock, Richard; Laurier, Dominique; Moissonnier, Monika; Schubauer-Berigan, Mary K; Thierry-Chef, Isabelle; Kesminiene, Ausrele

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background There is much uncertainty about the risks of leukaemia and lymphoma after repeated or protracted low-dose radiation exposure typical of occupational, environmental, and diagnostic medical settings. We quantified associations between protracted low-dose radiation exposures and leukaemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma mortality among radiation-monitored adults employed in France, the UK, and the USA. Methods We assembled a cohort of 308 297 radiation-monitored workers employed for at least 1 year by the Atomic Energy Commission, AREVA Nuclear Cycle, or the National Electricity Company in France, the Departments of Energy and Defence in the USA, and nuclear industry employers included in the National Registry for Radiation Workers in the UK. The cohort was followed up for a total of 8·22 million person-years. We ascertained deaths caused by leukaemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma. We used Poisson regression to quantify associations between estimated red bone marrow absorbed dose and leukaemia and lymphoma mortality. Findings Doses were accrued at very low rates (mean 1·1 mGy per year, SD 2·6). The excess relative risk of leukaemia mortality (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia) was 2·96 per Gy (90% CI 1·17–5·21; lagged 2 years), most notably because of an association between radiation dose and mortality from chronic myeloid leukaemia (excess relative risk per Gy 10·45, 90% CI 4·48–19·65). Interpretation This study provides strong evidence of positive associations between protracted low-dose radiation exposure and leukaemia. Funding Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, AREVA, Electricité de France, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, US Department of Energy, US Department of Health and Human Services, University of North Carolina, Public Health England. PMID:26436129

  15. Radiation and risk: A look at the data

    SciTech Connect

    Schillaci, M.E.

    1996-10-01

    This paper is a review of current data on the risks associated with human exposure to ionizing radiation. We examine these risks for dose levels ranging from very high (atomic bomb survivors) to very low (background). The principal end point considered is cancer mortality. Cancer is the only observed clinical manifestation of radiation-induced stochastic effects. Stochastic effects are caused by subtle radiation-induced cellular changes (DNA mutations) that are random in nature and have no threshold dose (assuming less than perfect repair). The probability of such effects increases with dose, but the severity does not. The time required for cancer to develop ranges from several years for leukemia to decades for solid tumors. In addition to somatic cells, radiation can also damage germ cells (ova and sperm) to produce hereditary effects, which are also classified as stochastic. However, clinical manifestations of such effects have not been observed in humans at a statistically significant level.

  16. Radiation dose and leukemia risk in patients treated for cancer of the cervix

    SciTech Connect

    Boice, J.D. Jr.; Blettner, M.; Kleinerman, R.A.; Stovall, M.; Moloney, W.C.; Engholm, G.; Austin, D.F.; Bosch, A.; Cookfair, D.L.; Krementz, E.T.

    1987-12-01

    To quantify the risk of radiation-induced leukemia and provide further information on the nature of the relationship between dose and response, a case-control study was undertaken in a cohort of over 150,000 women with invasive cancer of the uterine cervix. The cases either were reported to one of 17 population-based cancer registries or were treated in any of 16 oncologic clinics in Canada, Europe, and the United States. Four controls were individually matched to each of 195 cases of leukemia on the basis of age and calendar year when diagnosed with cervical cancer and survival time. Leukemia diagnoses were verified by one hematologist. Radiation dose to active bone marrow was estimated by medical physicists on the basis of the original radiotherapy records of study subjects. The risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia, one of the few malignancies without evidence for an association with ionizing radiation, was not increased (relative risk (RR) = 1.03; n = 52). However, for all other forms of leukemia taken together (n = 143), a twofold risk was evident (RR = 2.0; 90% confidence interval = 1.0-4.2). Risk increased with increasing radiation dose until average doses of about 400 rad (4 Gy) were reached and then decreased at higher doses. This pattern is consistent with experimental data for which the down-turn in risk at high doses has been interpreted as due to killing of potentially leukemic cells. The dose-response information was modeled with various RR functions, accounting for the nonhomogeneous distribution of radiation dose during radiotherapy. The local radiation doses to each of 14 bone marrow compartments for each patient were incorporated in the models, and the corresponding risks were summed.

  17. Risk of cancer subsequent to low-dose radiation.

    PubMed

    Warren, S

    1980-10-01

    Prominent among media items related to the Three Mile Island episode were prophecies of future cancers. The credibility of some of these estimates are discussed. The average person has been exposed by the age of 50 to 2.5 rad (0.025 Gy) from natural background. We define low doses as under 25 rad (0.25 Gy). The most heavily exposed members of the general population during the Three Mile Island event received 83 mrad (0.83 mGy). Those exposed to 2500 mrad (25 mGy) would show no pathologically recognizable effects of radiation though there is evidence that chromosomal damage may occur with doses about 1 rad (0.01 Gy). An official stated among the consequences of the Three Mile Island accident that two additional cancer deaths would result. No epidemiologist could detect such an increase in the population at risk. It has been generally agreed that the linear hypothesis is useful for determining protection standards, not prognosis. Objective criteria for pathologic diagnosis of cause-effect relations are presented. PMID:7430985

  18. Cancer risk above 1 Gy and the impact for space radiation protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Uwe; Walsh, Linda

    2009-07-01

    Analyses of the epidemiological data on the Japanese A-bomb survivors, who were exposed to γ-rays and neutrons, provide most current information on the dose-response of radiation-induced cancer. Since the dose span of main interest is usually between 0 and 1 Gy, for radiation protection purposes, the analysis of the A-bomb survivors is often focused on this range. However, estimates of cancer risk for doses larger than 1 Gy are becoming more important for long-term manned space missions. Therefore in this work, emphasis is placed on doses larger than 1 Gy with respect to radiation-induced solid cancer and leukemia mortality. The present analysis of the A-bomb survivors data was extended by including two extra high-dose categories and applying organ-averaged dose instead of the colon-weighted dose. In addition, since there are some recent indications for a high neutron dose contribution, the data were fitted separately for three different values for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the neutrons (10, 35 and 100) and a variable RBE as a function of dose. The data were fitted using a linear and a linear-exponential dose-response relationship using a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) of both one and two. The work presented here implies that the use of organ-averaged dose, a dose-dependent neutron RBE and the bending-over of the dose-response relationship for radiation-induced cancer could result in a reduction of radiation risk by around 50% above 1 Gy. This could impact radiation risk estimates for space crews on long-term mission above 500 days who might be exposed to doses above 1 Gy. The consequence of using a DDREF of one instead of two increases cancer risk by about 40% and would therefore balance the risk decrease described above.

  19. Estimated ultraviolet radiation doses in wetlands in six national parks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diamond, S.A.; Trenham, P.C.; Adams, Michael J.; Hossack, B.R.; Knapp, R.A.; Stark, L.; Bradford, D.; Corn, P.S.; Czarnowski, K.; Brooks, P.D.; Fagre, D.B.; Breen, B.; Dentenbeck, N.E.; Tonnessen, K.

    2005-01-01

    Ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B, 280–320-nm wavelengths) doses were estimated for 1024 wetlands in six national parks: Acadia (Acadia), Glacier (Glacier), Great Smoky Mountains (Smoky), Olympic (Olympic), Rocky Mountain (Rocky), and Sequoia/Kings Canyon (Sequoia). Estimates were made using ground-based UV-B data (Brewer spectrophotometers), solar radiation models, GIS tools, field characterization of vegetative features, and quantification of DOC concentration and spectral absorbance. UV-B dose estimates were made for the summer solstice, at a depth of 1 cm in each wetland. The mean dose across all wetlands and parks was 19.3 W-h m−2 (range of 3.4–32.1 W-h m−2). The mean dose was lowest in Acadia (13.7 W-h m−2) and highest in Rocky (24.4 W-h m−2). Doses were significantly different among all parks. These wetland doses correspond to UV-B flux of 125.0 μW cm−2 (range 21.4–194.7 μW cm−2) based on a day length, averaged among all parks, of 15.5 h. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), a key determinant of water-column UV-B flux, ranged from 0.6 (analytical detection limit) to 36.7 mg C L−1 over all wetlands and parks, and reduced potential maximal UV-B doses at 1-cm depth by 1%–87 %. DOC concentration, as well as its effect on dose, was lowest in Sequoia and highest in Acadia (DOC was equivalent in Acadia, Glacier, and Rocky). Landscape reduction of potential maximal UV-B doses ranged from zero to 77% and was lowest in Sequoia. These regional differences in UV-B wetland dose illustrate the importance of considering all aspects of exposure in evaluating the potential impact of UV-B on aquatic organisms.

  20. Time-dependent radiation hazard estimations during space flights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobynde, Mikhail; Shprits, Yuri; Drozdov, Alexander

    Cosmic particle radiation is a limiting factor for the out of magnetosphere crewed flights. The cosmic radiation uncrewed flights inside heliosphere and crewed flights inside of magnetosphere tend to become a routine procedure, whereas there have been only few shot time flights out of it (Apollo missions 1969-1972) with maximum duration less than a month. Long term crewed missions set much higher requirements to the radiation shielding, primarily because of long exposition term. Inside the helosphere there are two main sources of cosmic radiation: galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and coronal mass ejections (CME). GCR come from the outside of heliosphere forming a background of overall radiation that affects the spacecraft. The intensity of GCR is varied according to solar activity, increasing with solar activity decrease and backward, with the modulation time (time between nearest maxima) of 11 yeas. CME are shot term events, comparing to GCR modulation time, but are much more energetic. The probability of CME increases with the increase of solar activity. Time dependences of the intensity of these two components encourage looking for a time window of flight, when intensity and affection of CME and GCR would be minimized. Applying time dependent models of GCR spectra [1] and estimations of CME we show the time dependence of the radiation dose in a realistic human phantom [2] inside the shielding capsule. We pay attention to the shielding capsule design, looking for an optimal geometry parameters and materials. Different types of particles affect differently on the human providing more or less harm to the tissues. Incident particles provide a large amount of secondary particles while propagating through the shielding capsule. We make an attempt to find an optimal combination of shielding capsule parameters, namely material and thickness, that will effectively decrease the incident particle energy, at the same time minimizing flow of secondary induced particles and

  1. Radiation in the workplace-a review of studies of the risks of occupational exposure to ionising radiation.

    PubMed

    Wakeford, Richard

    2009-06-01

    Many individuals are, or have been, exposed to ionising radiation in the course of their work and the epidemiological study of occupationally irradiated groups offers an important opportunity to complement the estimates of risks to health resulting from exposure to radiation that are obtained from other populations, such as the Japanese survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Moreover, workplace exposure to radiation usually involves irradiation conditions that are of direct relevance to the principal concern of radiological protection: protracted exposure to low level radiation. Further, some workers have been exposed to radioactive material that has been inadvertently taken into the body, and the study of these groups leads to risk estimates derived directly from the experience of those irradiated by these 'internal emitters', intakes of alpha-particle-emitters being of particular interest. Workforces that have been the subject of epidemiological study include medical staff, aircrews, radium dial luminisers, underground hard-rock miners, Chernobyl clean-up workers, nuclear weapons test participants and nuclear industry workers. The first solid epidemiological evidence of the stochastic effects of irradiation came from a study of occupational exposure to medical x-rays that was reported in 1944, which demonstrated a large excess risk of leukaemia among US radiologists; but the general lack of dose records for early medical staff who tended to experience the highest exposures hampers the derivation of risks per unit dose received by medical workers. The instrument dial luminisers who inadvertently ingested large amounts of radium-based paint and underground hard-rock miners who inhaled large quantities of radon and its decay products suffered markedly raised excess risks of, respectively, bone and lung cancers; the miner studies have provided standard risk estimates for radon-induced lung cancer. The large numbers of nuclear industry

  2. Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for

  3. Estimating Risks of Heat Strain by Age and Sex: A Population-Level Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W.; Hanna, Elizabeth G.; Dear, Keith

    2015-01-01

    Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan’s man model “MANMO”) to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions. PMID:25993102

  4. Estimated incidence and risk factors of sudden unexpected death

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Feng-Chang; Mehta, Neil; Mounsey, Louisa; Nwosu, Anthony; Pursell, Irion; Chung, Eugene H; Mounsey, J Paul; Simpson, Ross J

    2016-01-01

    Objective In this manuscript, we estimate the incidence and identify risk factors for sudden unexpected death in a socioeconomically and racially diverse population in one county in North Carolina. Estimates of the incidence and risk factors contributing to sudden death vary widely. The Sudden Unexpected Death in North Carolina (SUDDEN) project is a population-based investigation of the incidence and potential causes of sudden death. Methods From 3 March 2013 to 2 March 2014, all out-of-hospital deaths in Wake County, North Carolina, were screened to identify presumed sudden unexpected death among free-living residents between the ages of 18 and 64 years. Death certificate, public and medical records were reviewed and adjudicated to confirm sudden unexpected death cases. Results Following adjudication, 190 sudden unexpected deaths including 122 men and 68 women were identified. Estimated incidence was 32.1 per 100 000 person-years overall: 42.7 among men and 22.4 among women. The majority of victims were white, unmarried men over age 55 years, with unwitnessed deaths at home. Hypertension and dyslipidaemia were common in men and women. African-American women dying from sudden unexpected death were over-represented. Women who were under age 55 years with coronary disease accounted for over half of female participants with coronary artery disease. Conclusions The overall estimated incidence of sudden unexpected death may account for approximately 10% of all deaths classified as ‘natural’. Women have a lower estimated incidence of sudden unexpected death than men. However, we found no major differences in age or comorbidities between men and women. African-Americans and young women with coronary disease are at risk for sudden unexpected death. PMID:27042316

  5. Evaluation of risk from space radiation with high-energy heavy ion beams

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Cucinotta, F.; Kim, M. H.

    1998-01-01

    The most challenging radiation in space consists of fully ionized atomic elements with high energy for which only the few lowest energy ions can be stopped in shielding materials. The health risk from exposure to these ions and their secondary radiations generated in shield materials is poorly understood since there are few human data and a systematic study in relevant animal model systems has not been made. The accuracy of risk prediction is described as the major limiting factor in the management of space radiation risk. The expected impact of systematic studies is examined using the limited available biological data and models. Given the limitations of current predictions, models must be developed that are able to incorporate the required fundamental scientific data into accurate risk estimates. The important radiation components that can be provided for laboratory testing are identified. The use of ground-based accelerator beams to simulate space radiation is explained and quantitative scientific constraints on such facilities are derived. Three facilities, one each in the United States, in Germany and in Japan, currently have the partial capability to satisfy these constraints. A facility has been proposed using the Brookhaven National Laboratory Booster Synchrotron in the United States; in conjuction with other on-site accelerators, it will be able to provide the full range of heavy ion beams and energies required.

  6. Evaluation of risk from space radiation with high-energy heavy ion beams.

    PubMed

    Schimmerling, W; Wilson, J W; Cucinotta, F; Kim, M H

    1998-07-01

    The most challenging radiation in space consists of fully ionized atomic elements with high energy for which only the few lowest energy ions can be stopped in shielding materials. The health risk from exposure to these ions and their secondary radiations generated in shield materials is poorly understood since there are few human data and a systematic study in relevant animal model systems has not been made. The accuracy of risk prediction is described as the major limiting factor in the management of space radiation risk. The expected impact of systematic studies is examined using the limited available biological data and models. Given the limitations of current predictions, models must be developed that are able to incorporate the required fundamental scientific data into accurate risk estimates. The important radiation components that can be provided for laboratory testing are identified. The use of ground-based accelerator beams to simulate space radiation is explained and quantitative scientific constraints on such facilities are derived. Three facilities, one each in the United States, in Germany and in Japan, currently have the partial capability to satisfy these constraints. A facility has been proposed using the Brookhaven National Laboratory Booster Synchrotron in the United States; in conjuction with other on-site accelerators, it will be able to provide the full range of heavy ion beams and energies required. PMID:11542638

  7. Development of human epithelial cell systems for radiation risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, C. H.; Craise, L. M.

    1994-01-01

    The most important health effect of space radiation for astronauts is cancer induction. For radiation risk assessment, an understanding of carcinogenic effect of heavy ions in human cells is most essential. In our laboratory, we have successfully developed a human mammary epithelial cell system for studying the neoplastic transformation in vitro. Growth variants were obtained from heavy ion irradiated immortal mammary cell line. These cloned growth variants can grow in regular tissue culture media and maintain anchorage dependent growth and density inhibition property. Upon further irradiation with high-Linear Energy Transfer (LET) radiation, transformed foci were found. Experimental results from these studies suggest that multiexposure of radiation is required to induce neoplastic tranformation of human epithelial cells. This multihits requirement may be due to high genomic stability of human cells. These growth variants can be useful model systems for space flight experiments to determine the carcinogenic effect of space radiation in human epithelial cells.

  8. Improved risk estimates for carbon tetrachloride. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, J.M.; Springer, D.L.; Thrall, K.D.

    1998-06-01

    'The overall purpose of these studies is to improve the scientific basis for assessing the cancer risk associated with human exposure to carbon tetrachloride. Specifically, the toxicokinetics of inhaled carbon tetrachloride is being determined in rats, mice and hamsters. Species differences in the metabolism of carbon tetrachloride by rats, mice and hamsters is being determined in vivo and in vitro using tissues and microsomes from these rodent species and man. Dose-response relationships will be determined in all studies. The information will be used to improve the current physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for carbon tetrachloride. The authors will also determine whether carbon tetrachloride is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing, and regenerative cell proliferation. In combination, the results of these studies will provide the types of information needed to enable a refined risk estimate for carbon tetrachloride under EPA''s new guidelines for cancer risk assessment.'

  9. A comparison of genetic risk score with family history for estimating prostate cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Helfand, Brian T

    2016-01-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) testing is recommended by most authoritative groups for high-risk men including those with a family history of the disease. However, family history information is often limited by patient knowledge and clinician intake, and thus, many men are incorrectly assigned to different risk groups. Alternate methods to assess PCa risk are required. In this review, we discuss how genetic variants, referred to as PCa-risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms, can be used to calculate a genetic risk score (GRS). GRS assigns a relatively unique value to all men based on the number of PCa-risk SNPs that an individual carries. This GRS value can provide a more precise estimate of a man's PCa risk. This is particularly relevant in situations when an individual is unaware of his family history. In addition, GRS has utility and can provide a more precise estimate of risk even among men with a positive family history. It can even distinguish risk among relatives with the same degree of family relationships. Taken together, this review serves to provide support for the clinical utility of GRS as an independent test to provide supplemental information to family history. As such, GRS can serve as a platform to help guide-shared decision-making processes regarding the timing and frequency of PCa testing and biopsies. PMID:27004541

  10. Ionising radiation: are orthopaedic surgeons at risk?

    PubMed Central

    Smith, G. L.; Briggs, T. W.; Lavy, C. B.; Nordeen, H.

    1992-01-01

    Modern orthopaedic trauma practice involves increased exposure of the surgeon to ionising radiation. However, there have been no studies to investigate whether the doses received are within limits for non-classified workers. In this study, whole body, eye and extremity, namely hand, doses were measured in six orthopaedic surgeons during trauma cases requiring the use of X-rays in theatre. None of the subjects approached the recommended maximum dose levels for either the whole body, eyes or hands. This finding is reassuring. In orthopaedics, the limiting dose is that to the hands. This differs from previously studied groups, such as radiologists and cardiologists, in whom the limiting factor is the dose to the lens of the eye. Although current precautions appear to be adequate, safe practice in the future will depend on continuing vigilance and repetition of studies similar to this one as techniques and workloads change. PMID:1416705

  11. Getting ready for the manned mission to Mars: the astronauts' risk from space radiation.

    PubMed

    Hellweg, Christine E; Baumstark-Khan, Christa

    2007-07-01

    Space programmes are shifting towards planetary exploration and, in particular, towards missions by human beings to the Moon and to Mars. Radiation is considered to be one of the major hazards for personnel in space and has emerged as the most critical issue to be resolved for long-term missions both orbital and interplanetary. The two cosmic sources of radiation that could impact a mission outside the Earth's magnetic field are solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Exposure to the types of ionizing radiation encountered during space travel may cause a number of health-related problems, but the primary concern is related to the increased risk of cancer induction in astronauts. Predictions of cancer risk and acceptable radiation exposure in space are extrapolated from minimal data and are subject to many uncertainties. The paper describes present-day estimates of equivalent doses from GCR and solar cosmic radiation behind various shields and radiation risks for astronauts on a mission to Mars. PMID:17235598

  12. Getting ready for the manned mission to Mars: the astronauts' risk from space radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellweg, Christine E.; Baumstark-Khan, Christa

    2007-07-01

    Space programmes are shifting towards planetary exploration and, in particular, towards missions by human beings to the Moon and to Mars. Radiation is considered to be one of the major hazards for personnel in space and has emerged as the most critical issue to be resolved for long-term missions both orbital and interplanetary. The two cosmic sources of radiation that could impact a mission outside the Earth’s magnetic field are solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Exposure to the types of ionizing radiation encountered during space travel may cause a number of health-related problems, but the primary concern is related to the increased risk of cancer induction in astronauts. Predictions of cancer risk and acceptable radiation exposure in space are extrapolated from minimal data and are subject to many uncertainties. The paper describes present-day estimates of equivalent doses from GCR and solar cosmic radiation behind various shields and radiation risks for astronauts on a mission to Mars.

  13. Assessment of radiation-induced second cancer risks in proton therapy and IMRT for organs inside the primary radiation field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paganetti, Harald; Athar, Basit S.; Moteabbed, Maryam; Adams, Judith A.; Schneider, Uwe; Yock, Torunn I.

    2012-10-01

    There is clinical evidence that second malignancies in radiation therapy occur mainly within the beam path, i.e. in the medium or high-dose region. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk for developing a radiation-induced tumor within the treated volume and to compare this risk for proton therapy and intensity-modulated photon therapy (IMRT). Instead of using data for specific patients we have created a representative scenario. Fully contoured age- and gender-specific whole body phantoms (4 year and 14 year old) were uploaded into a treatment planning system and tumor volumes were contoured based on patients treated for optic glioma and vertebral body Ewing's sarcoma. Treatment plans for IMRT and proton therapy treatments were generated. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) for developing a second malignancy were calculated using a risk model considering cell kill, mutation, repopulation, as well as inhomogeneous organ doses. For standard fractionation schemes, the LAR for developing a second malignancy from radiation therapy alone was found to be up to 2.7% for a 4 year old optic glioma patient treated with IMRT considering a soft-tissue carcinoma risk model only. Sarcoma risks were found to be below 1% in all cases. For a 14 year old, risks were found to be about a factor of 2 lower. For Ewing's sarcoma cases the risks based on a sarcoma model were typically higher than the carcinoma risks, i.e. LAR up to 1.3% for soft-tissue sarcoma. In all cases, the risk from proton therapy turned out to be lower by at least a factor of 2 and up to a factor of 10. This is mainly due to lower total energy deposited in the patient when using proton beams. However, the comparison of a three-field and four-field proton plan also shows that the distribution of the dose, i.e. the particular treatment plan, plays a role. When using different fractionation schemes, the estimated risks roughly scale with the total dose difference in%. In conclusion, proton therapy can

  14. Exposure Risks Among Children Undergoing Radiation Therapy: Considerations in the Era of Image Guided Radiation Therapy.

    PubMed

    Hess, Clayton B; Thompson, Holly M; Benedict, Stanley H; Seibert, J Anthony; Wong, Kenneth; Vaughan, Andrew T; Chen, Allen M

    2016-04-01

    Recent improvements in toxicity profiles of pediatric oncology patients are attributable, in part, to advances in the field of radiation oncology such as intensity modulated radiation (IMRT) and proton therapy (IMPT). While IMRT and IMPT deliver highly conformal dose to targeted volumes, they commonly demand the addition of 2- or 3-dimensional imaging for precise positioning--a technique known as image guided radiation therapy (IGRT). In this manuscript we address strategies to further minimize exposure risk in children by reducing effective IGRT dose. Portal X rays and cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) are commonly used to verify patient position during IGRT and, because their relative radiation exposure is far less than the radiation absorbed from therapeutic treatment beams, their sometimes significant contribution to cumulative risk can be easily overlooked. Optimizing the conformality of IMRT/IMPT while simultaneously ignoring IGRT dose may result in organs at risk being exposed to a greater proportion of radiation from IGRT than from therapeutic beams. Over a treatment course, cumulative central-axis CBCT effective dose can approach or supersede the amount of radiation absorbed from a single treatment fraction, a theoretical increase of 3% to 5% in mutagenic risk. In select scenarios, this may result in the underprediction of acute and late toxicity risk (such as azoospermia, ovarian dysfunction, or increased lifetime mutagenic risk) in radiation-sensitive organs and patients. Although dependent on variables such as patient age, gender, weight, body habitus, anatomic location, and dose-toxicity thresholds, modifying IGRT use and acquisition parameters such as frequency, imaging modality, beam energy, current, voltage, rotational degree, collimation, field size, reconstruction algorithm, and documentation can reduce exposure, avoid unnecessary toxicity, and achieve doses as low as reasonably achievable, promoting a culture and practice of "gentle IGRT

  15. Animal studies of life shortening and cancer risk from space radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, D. H.; Yochmowitz, M. G.; Hardy, K. A.; Salmon, Y. L.

    The U. S. Air Force study of the delayed effects of single, total body exposures to simulated space radiation in rhesus monkeys is now in its 21st year. Observations on 301 irradiated and 57 age-matched control animals indicate that life expectancy loss from exposure to protons in the energy range encountered in the Van Allen belts and solar proton events can be expressed as a logarithmic function of the dose. The primary causes of life shortening are cancer and endometriosis (an abnormal proliferation of the lining of the uterus in females). Life shortening estimates permit comparison of the risk associated with space radiation exposures to be compared with that of other occupational and environmental hazards, thereby facilitating risk/benefit decisions in the planning and operational phases of manned space missions. Calculations of the relative risk of fatal cancers in the irradiated subjects reveal that the total body surface dose required to double the risk of death from cancer over a 20-year post exposure period varies with the linear energy transfer (LET) of the radiation. The ability to determine the integrated dose and LET spectrum in space radiation exposures of human is, therefore, critical to the assessment of life-time cancer risk.

  16. Methodology for estimating extreme winds for probabilistic risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Elliott, D.L.; Holladay, C.G.; Hubbe, J.M.

    1986-10-01

    The US Nuclear Reguulatory Commission (NRC) assesses the risks associated with nuclear faciliies using techniques that fall under a generic name of Probabilistic Risk Assessment. In these assessments, potential accident sequences are traced from initiating event to final outcome. At each step of the sequence, a probability of occurrence is assigned to each available alternative. Ultimately, the probability of occurrence of each possible outcome is determined from the probabilities assigned to the initiating events and the alternative paths. Extreme winds are considered in these sequences. As a result, it is necessary to estimate extreme wind probabilities as low as 10/sup -7/yr/sup -1/. When the NRC staff is called on to provide extreme wind estimates, the staff is likely to be subjected to external time and funding constraints. These constraints dictate that the estimates be based on readily available wind data. In general, readily available data will be limited to the data provided by the facility applicant or licensee and the data archived at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. This report describes readily available data that can be used in estimating extreme wind probabilities, procedures of screening the data to eliminate erroneous values and for adjusting data to compensate for differences in data collection methods, and statistical methods for making extreme wind estimates. Supporting technical details are presented in several appendices. Estimation of extreme wind probabilities at a given location involves many subjective decisions. The procedures described do not eliminate all of the subjectivity, but they do increase the reproducibility of the analysis. They provide consistent methods for determining probabilities given a set of subjective decisions. By following these procedures, subjective decisions can be identified and documented.

  17. Improved aerosol radiative properties as a foundation for solar geoengineering risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dykema, J. A.; Keith, D. W.; Keutsch, F. N.

    2016-07-01

    Side effects resulting from the deliberate injection of sulfate aerosols intended to partially offset climate change have motivated the investigation of alternatives, including solid aerosol materials. Sulfate aerosols warm the tropical tropopause layer, increasing the flux of water vapor into the stratosphere, accelerating ozone loss, and increasing radiative forcing. The high refractive index of some solid materials may lead to reduction in these risks. We present a new analysis of the scattering efficiency and absorption of a range of candidate solid aerosols. We utilize a comprehensive radiative transfer model driven by updated, physically consistent estimates of optical properties. We compute the potential increase in stratospheric water vapor and associated longwave radiative forcing. We find that the stratospheric heating calculated in this analysis indicates some materials to be substantially riskier than previous work. We also find that there are Earth-abundant materials that may reduce some principal known risks relative to sulfate aerosols.

  18. Lack of Correlation between Stem-Cell Proliferation and Radiation- or Smoking-Associated Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    Little, Mark P.; Hendry, Jolyon H.; Puskin, Jerome S.

    2016-01-01

    Background A recent paper by Tomasetti and Vogelstein (Science 2015 347 78–81) suggested that the variation in natural cancer risk was largely explained by the total number of stem-cell divisions, and that most cancers arose by chance. They proposed an extra-risk score as way of distinguishing the effects of the stochastic, replicative component of cancer risk from other causative factors, specifically those due to the external environment and inherited mutations. Objectives We tested the hypothesis raised by Tomasetti and Vogelstein by assessing the degree of correlation of stem cell divisions and their extra-risk score with radiation- and tobacco-associated cancer risk. Methods We fitted a variety of linear and log-linear models to data on stem cell divisions per year and cumulative stem cell divisions over lifetime and natural cancer risk, some taken from the paper of Tomasetti and Vogelstein, augmented using current US lifetime cancer risk data, and also radiation- and tobacco-associated cancer risk. Results The data assembled by Tomasetti and Vogelstein, as augmented here, are inconsistent with the power-of-age relationship commonly observed for cancer incidence and the predictions of a multistage carcinogenesis model, if one makes the strong assumption of homogeneity of numbers of driver mutations across cancer sites. Analysis of the extra-risk score and various other measures (number of stem cell divisions per year, cumulative number of stem cell divisions over life) considered by Tomasetti and Vogelstein suggests that these are poorly predictive of currently available estimates of radiation- or smoking-associated cancer risk–for only one out of 37 measures or logarithmic transformations thereof is there a statistically significant correlation (p<0.05) with radiation- or smoking-associated risk. Conclusions The data used by Tomasetti and Vogelstein are in conflict with predictions of a multistage model of carcinogenesis, under the assumption of

  19. Risk of Radiation Retinopathy in Patients With Orbital and Ocular Lymphoma

    SciTech Connect

    Kaushik, Megha; Pulido, Jose S.; Schild, Steven E.; Stafford, Scott

    2012-12-01

    Purpose: Radiation retinopathy is a potential long-term complication of radiation therapy to the orbit. The risk of developing this adverse effect is dose dependent; however, the threshold is unclear. The aim of this study was to identify the risk of developing radiation retinopathy at increasing radiation doses. Methods and Materials: A 40-year retrospective review was performed of patients who received external beam radiation therapy for ocular/orbital non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Results: Sixty-seven patients who had at least one ophthalmic follow-up examination were included in this study. Most patients (52%) were diagnosed with NHL involving the orbit. Patients received external beam radiation therapy at doses between 1886 and 5400 cGy (mean, 3033 {+-} 782 cGy). Radiation retinopathy developed in 12% of patients, and the median time to diagnosis was 27 months (range, 15-241months). The mean prescribed radiation dose in patients with retinopathy was 3309 {+-} 585 cGy, and the estimated retinal dose (derived by reviewing the dosimetry) was 3087 {+-} 1030 cGy. The incidence of retinopathy increased with dose. The average prescribed daily fractionated dose was higher in patients who developed retinopathy than in patients who did not (mean, 202 cGy vs 180 cGy, respectively; P = .04). More patients with radiation retinopathy had comorbid diabetes mellitus type 2 than patients without retinopathy (P = .015). In our study, the mean visual acuity of the eyes that received radiation was worse than that of the eyes that did not (P = .027). Other postradiotherapy ocular findings included keratitis (6%), dry eyes (39%), and cataract (33%). Conclusions: Radiation retinopathy, a known complication of radiotherapy for orbital tumors, relates to vascular comorbidities and dose. Higher total doses and larger daily fractions (>180 cGy) appear to be related to higher rates of retinopathy. Future larger studies are required to identify a statistically significant threshold for the

  20. A Mathematical Model for Estimating Biological Damage Caused by Radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manabe, Yuichiro; Ichikawa, Kento; Bando, Masako

    2012-10-01

    We propose a mathematical model for estimating biological damage caused by low-dose irradiation. We understand that the linear non threshold (LNT) hypothesis is realized only in the case of no recovery effects. In order to treat the realistic living objects, our model takes into account various types of recovery as well as proliferation mechanism, which may change the resultant damage, especially for the case of lower dose rate irradiation. It turns out that the lower the radiation dose rate, the safer the irradiated system of living object (which is called symbolically ``tissue'' hereafter) can have chances to survive, which can reproduce the so-called dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF).

  1. Intercepted photosynthetically active radiation estimated by spectral reflectance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hatfield, J. L.; Asrar, G.; Kanemasu, E. T.

    1984-01-01

    Interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was evaluated relative to greenness and normalized difference (MSS (7-5)/(7+5) for five planting dates of wheat for 1978-79 and 1979-80 at Phoenix, Arizona. Intercepted PAR was calculated from leaf area index and stage of growth. Linear relatinships were found with greeness and normalized difference with separate relatinships describing growth and senescence of the crop. Normalized difference was significantly better than greenness for all planting dates. For the leaf area growth portion of the season the relation between PAR interception and normalized difference was the same over years and planting dates. For the leaf senescence phase the relationships showed more variability due to the lack of data on light interception in sparse and senescing canopies. Normalized difference could be used to estimate PAR interception throughout a growing season.

  2. Papillary Microcarcinoma of the Thyroid among Atomic Bomb Survivors: Tumor Characteristics and Radiation Risk

    PubMed Central

    Hayashi, Yuzo; Lagarde, Frederic; Tsuda, Nobuo; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Preston, Dale L.; Koyama, Kojiro; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Ron, Elaine; Kodama, Kazunori; Tokuoka, Shoji

    2009-01-01

    Background Radiation exposure is an established cause of clinical thyroid cancer, but little is known about radiation effects on papillary microcarcinoma (PMC) of the thyroid, a relatively common subclinical thyroid malignancy. Because the incidence of these small thyroid cancers has been increasing, it is important to better understand them and their relationship to radiation. Methods PMCs were identified in a subset of 7659 members of the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors who had archived autopsy or surgical materials. We conducted a pathology review of these specimens and evaluated the histological features of the tumors and the association between PMCs and thyroid radiation dose. Results From 1958 to1995, 458 PMCs were detected among 313 study subjects. The majority of cancers exhibited pathologic features of papillary thyroid cancers. Overall, 81% of the PMCs were of the sclerosing variant and 91% were nonencapsulated, psammoma bodies occurred in 13% and calcification was observed in 23%. Over 95% had papillary or papillary-follicular architecture and most displayed nuclear overlap, clear nuclei, and nuclear grooves. Several of these features increased with increasing tumor size, but no association was found with radiation dose. A significant radiation-dose response was found for the prevalence of PMCs (estimated excess odds ratio/Gy=0.57; 95% CI: 0.01-1.55), with the excess risk observed primarily among females. Conclusion Low-to-moderate doses of ionizing radiation appears to increase the risk of thyroid PMCs, even when exposure occurs during adulthood. PMID:20120034

  3. Temporal variation of optimal UV exposure time over Korea: risks and benefits of surface UV radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Solar UV radiation in a wavelength range between 280 to 400 nm has both positive and negative influences on human body. Surface UV radiation is the main natural source of vitamin D, providing the promotion of bone and musculoskeletal health and reducing the risk of a number of cancers and other medical conditions. However, overexposure to surface UV radiation is significantly related with the majority of skin cancer, in addition other negative health effects such as sunburn, skin aging, and some forms of eye cataracts. Therefore, it is important to estimate the optimal UV exposure time, representing a balance between reducing negative health effects and maximizing sufficient vitamin D production. Previous studies calculated erythemal UV and vitamin-D UV from the measured and modelled spectral irradiances, respectively, by weighting CIE Erythema and Vitamin D3 generation functions (Kazantzidis et al., 2009; Fioletov et al., 2010). In particular, McKenzie et al. (2009) suggested the algorithm to estimate vitamin-D production UV from erythemal UV (or UV index) and determined the optimum conditions of UV exposure based on skin type Ⅱ according to the Fitzpatrick (1988). Recently, there are various demands for risks and benefits of surface UV radiation on public health over Korea, thus it is necessary to estimate optimal UV exposure time suitable to skin type of East Asians. This study examined the relationship between erythemally weighted UV (UVEry) and vitamin D weighted UV (UVVitD) over Korea during 2004-2012. The temporal variations of the ratio (UVVitD/UVEry) were also analyzed and the ratio as a function of UV index was applied in estimating the optimal UV exposure time. In summer with high surface UV radiation, short exposure time leaded to sufficient vitamin D and erythema and vice versa in winter. Thus, the balancing time in winter was enough to maximize UV benefits and minimize UV risks.

  4. Estimating the risk of squamous cell cancer induction in skin following nonlinear optical imaging.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Giju; Nadiarnykh, Oleg; van Voskuilen, Johan; Hoy, Christopher L; Gerritsen, Hans C; Sterenborg, Henricus J C M

    2014-07-01

    High power femto-second (fs) laser pulses used for in-vivo nonlinear optical (NLO) imaging can form cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPD) in DNA, which may lead to carcinogenesis via subsequent mutations. Since UV radiation from routine sun exposure is the primary source of CPD lesions, we evaluated the risk of CPD-related squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in human skin due to NLO imaging relative to that from sun exposure. We developed a unique cancer risk model expanding previously published estimation of risk from exposure to continuous wave (CW) laser. This new model showed that the increase in CPD-related SCC in skin from NLO imaging is negligible above that due to regular sun exposure. PMID:23401419

  5. Radiation dose estimation of patients undergoing lumbar spine radiography

    PubMed Central

    Gyekye, Prince Kwabena; Simon, Adu; Geoffrey, Emi-Reynolds; Johnson, Yeboah; Stephen, Inkoom; Engmann, Cynthia Kaikor; Samuel, Wotorchi-Gordon

    2013-01-01

    Radiation dose to organs of 100 adult patients undergoing lumbar spine (LS) radiography at a University Hospital have been assessed. Free in air kerma measurement using an ionization chamber was used for the patient dosimetry. Organ and effective dose to the patients were estimated using PCXMC (version 1.5) software. The organs that recorded significant dose due to LS radiography were lungs, stomach, liver, adrenals, kidney, pancreas, spleen, galbladder, and the heart. It was observed that the stomach recorded the highest dose (48.2 ± 1.2 μGy) for LS anteroposterior (AP). The spleen also recorded the highest dose (41.2 ± 0.5 μGy) for LS lateral (LAT). The mean entrance surface air kerma (ESAK) of LS LAT (122.2 μGy) was approximately twice that of LS AP (76.3 μGy), but the effective dose for both examinations were approximately the same (LS LAT = 8.6 μSv and LS AP = 10.4 μSv). The overall stochastic health effect of radiation to patients due to LS radiography in the University Hospital is independent of the projection of the examination (AP or LAT). PMID:24672153

  6. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  7. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  8. The calculated risk of fatal secondary malignancies from intensity-modulated radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Kry, Stephen F.; Salehpour, Mohammad . E-mail: msalehpour@mdanderson.org; Followill, David S.; Stovall, Marilyn; Kuban, Deborah A.; White, R. Allen; Rosen, Isaac I.

    2005-07-15

    Purpose: Out-of-field radiation doses to normal tissues may be associated with an increased risk of secondary malignancies, particularly in long-term survivors. Step-and-shoot intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), an increasingly popular treatment modality, yields higher out-of-field doses than do conventional treatments, because of an increase in required monitor units (beam-on time). Methods: We used published risk coefficients (NRCP Report 116) and out-of-field dose equivalents to multiple organ sites to estimate a conservative maximal risk of fatal secondary malignancy associated with 6 IMRT approaches and 1 conventional external-beam approach for prostate cancer. Results: Depending on treatment energy, the IMRT treatments required 3.5-4.9 times as many monitor units to deliver as did the conventional treatment. The conservative maximum risk of fatal second malignancy was 1.7% for conventional radiation, 2.1% for IMRT using 10-MV X-rays, and 5.1% for IMRT using 18-MV X-rays. Intermediate risks were associated with IMRT using 6-MV X-rays: 2.9% for treatment with the Varian accelerator and 3.7% for treatment with the Siemens accelerator, as well as using 15-MV X-rays: 3.4% (Varian) and 4.0% (Siemens). Conclusion: The risk of fatal secondary malignancy differed substantially between IMRT and conventional radiation therapy for prostate cancer, as well as between different IMRT approaches. Perhaps this risk should be considered when choosing the optimal treatment technique and delivery system for patients who will undergo prostate radiation.

  9. Risk estimation for fast neutrons with regard to solid cancer.

    PubMed

    Kellerer, A M; Walsh, L

    2001-12-01

    In the absence of epidemiological information on the effects of neutrons, their cancer mortality risk coefficient is currently taken as the product of two low-dose extrapolations: the nominal risk coefficient for photons and the presumed maximum relative biological effectiveness of neutrons. This approach is unnecessary. Since linearity in dose is assumed for neutrons at low to moderate effect levels, the risk coefficient can be derived in terms of the excess risk from epidemiological observations at an intermediate dose of gamma rays and an assumed value, R(1), of the neutron RBE relative to this reference dose of gamma rays. Application of this procedure to the A-bomb data requires accounting for the effect of the neutron dose component, which, according to the current dosimetry system, DS86, amounts on average to 11 mGy in the two cities at a total dose of 1 Gy. With R(1) tentatively set to 20 or 50, it is concluded that the neutrons have caused 18% or 35%, respectively, of the total effect at 1 Gy. The excess relative risk (ERR) for neutrons then lies between 8 per Gy and 16 per Gy. Translating these values into risk coefficients in terms of the effective dose, E, requires accounting for the gamma-ray component produced by the neutron field in the human body, which will require a separate analysis. The risk estimate for neutrons will remain essentially unaffected by the current reassessment of the neutron doses in Hiroshima, because the doses are unlikely to change much at the reference dose of 1 Gy. PMID:11741494

  10. Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis; Badhwar, Gautam; Saganti, Premkumar; Schimmerling, Walter; Wilson, John; Peterson, Leif; Dicello, John

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

  11. Demonstration of the Effect of Generic Anatomical Divisions versus Clinical Protocols on Computed Tomography Dose Estimates and Risk Burden

    PubMed Central

    Moorin, Rachael E.; Gibson, David A. J.; Forsyth, Rene K.; Fox, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Objective Choosing to undertake a CT scan relies on balancing risk versus benefit, however risks associated with CT scanning have generally been limited to broad anatomical locations, which do not provided adequate information to evaluate risk against benefit. Our study aimed to determine differences in radiation dose and risk estimates associated with modern CT scanning examinations when computed for clinical protocols compared with those using anatomical area. Methods Technical data were extracted from a tertiary hospital Picture Archiving Communication System for random samples of 20–40 CT examinations per adult clinical CT protocol. Organ and whole body radiation dose were calculated using ImPACT Monte Carlo simulation software and cancer incidence and mortality estimated using BEIR VII age and gender specific lifetime attributable risk weights. Results Thirty four unique CT protocols were identified by our study. When grouped according to anatomic area the radiation dose varied substantially, particularly for abdominal protocols. The total estimated number of incident cancers and cancer related deaths using the mean dose of anatomical area were 86 and 69 respectively. Using more specific protocol doses the estimates rose to 214 and 138 incident cancers and cancer related deaths, at least doubling the burden estimated. Conclusions Modern CT scanning produces a greater diversity of effective doses than much of the literature describes; where a lack of focus on actual scanning protocols has produced estimates that do not reflect the range and complexity of modern CT practice. To allow clinicians, patients and policy makers to make informed risk versus benefit decisions the individual and population level risks associated with modern CT practices are essential. PMID:24878841

  12. Impact of the 1980 BEIR-III report on low-level radiation risk assessment, radiation protection guides, and public health policy

    SciTech Connect

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1981-06-01

    The author deals with the scientific basis for establishing appropriate radiation protection guides, and this effect on evaluation of societal activities concerned with the health effects in human populations exposed to low-level radiation. Methodology is discussed for estimating risks of radio-induced cancer and genetically related ill-health in man, the sources of data, the dose-response models used, and the precision ascribed to the process. (PSB)

  13. Leukemia risk associated with benzene exposure in the pliofilm cohort. II. Risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Paxton, M B; Chinchilli, V M; Brett, S M; Rodricks, J V

    1994-04-01

    The detailed work histories of the individual workers composing the Pliofilm cohort represent a unique resource for estimating the dose-response for leukemia that may follow occupational exposure to benzene. In this paper, we report the results of analyzing the updated Pliofilm cohort using the proportional hazards model, a more sophisticated technique that uses more of the available exposure data than the conditional logistic model used by Rinsky et al. The more rigorously defined exposure estimates derived by Paustenbach et al. are consistent with those of Crump and Allen in giving estimates of the slope of the leukemogenic dose-response that are not as steep as the slope resulting from the exposure estimates of Rinsky et al. We consider estimates of 0.3-0.5 additional leukemia deaths per thousand workers with 45 ppm-years of cumulative benzene exposure to be the best estimates currently available of leukemia risk from occupational exposure to benzene. These risks were estimated in the proportional hazards model when the exposure estimates of Crump and Allen or of Paustenbach et al. were used to derive a cumulative concentration-by-time metric. PMID:8008924

  14. Survival analyses of radiated animals incorporating competing risks and covariates

    SciTech Connect

    Gupta, R.C.; Albanese, R.A.

    1995-12-01

    The United States Air Force has been interested in studying the effect of different types of radiation encountered by its personnel in space. A study was, therefore, conducted at the USAF School of Aerospace Medicine, Brooks Air Force, Texas with rhesus monkeys as experimental subjects. These subjects were exposed to different types of radiation such as: (1) electromagnetic radiation; (2) electrons; (3) protons; and (4) nuclei of elements of higher numbers with different amount of radiation. These subjects were followed over a period of 338 months. In this paper an interesting problem related to health and radiation has been addressed. The effects of radiation, taking into account the cause of death (cancer or heart disease) along with the covariates such as sex, age, type of exposure, dose, are examined. A general log-linear hazard model approach is studied. The model estimates the cause specific hazard rates, assuming piecewise exponential distribution, and exhibits the survival function for each of the covariate groups and the probability of death due to each cause. A data set called `Delayed Bio-Effects Colony,` of radiated animals, is analysed and some conclusions are drawn. Overall the study has brought out the effect of high and low dose of radiation on both the male and female groups. The procedure presented in the paper distinguishes between time varying hazards. Thus the methodology may be useful for other survival related environmental problems, be this with regard to animal or human survival. Thus, the paper could contribute to its more widespread use.

  15. Fears, Feelings, and Facts: Interactively Communicating Benefits and Risks of Medical Radiation With Patients

    PubMed Central

    Dauer, Lawrence T.; Thornton, Raymond H.; Hay, Jennifer L.; Balter, Rochelle; Williamson, Matthew J.; St. Germain, Jean

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE As public awareness of medical radiation exposure increases, there has been heightened awareness among patients and physicians of the importance of holistic benefit-and-risk discussions in shared medical decision making. CONCLUSION We examine the rationale for informed consent and risk communication, draw on the literature on the psychology of radiation risk communication to increase understanding, examine methods commonly used to communicate radiation risk, and suggest strategies for improving communication about medical radiation benefits and risk. PMID:21427321

  16. Improved fire radiative energy estimation in high latitude ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melchiorre, A.; Boschetti, L.

    2014-12-01

    Scientists, land managers, and policy makers are facing new challenges as fire regimes are evolving as a result of climate change (Westerling et al. 2006). In high latitudes fires are increasing in number and size as temperatures increase and precipitation decreases (Kasischke and Turetsky 2006). Peatlands, like the large complexes in the Alaskan tundra, are burning more frequently and severely as a result of these changes, releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases. Remotely sensed data are routinely used to monitor the location of active fires and the extent of burned areas, but they are not sensitive to the depth of the organic soil layer combusted, resulting in underestimation of peatland greenhouse gas emissions when employing the conventional 'bottom up' approach (Seiler and Crutzen 1980). An alternative approach would be the direct estimation of the biomass burned from the energy released by the fire (Fire Radiative Energy, FRE) (Wooster et al. 2003). Previous works (Boschetti and Roy 2009; Kumar et al. 2011) showed that the sampling interval of polar orbiting satellite systems severely limits the accuracy of the FRE in tropical ecosystems (up to four overpasses a day with MODIS), but because of the convergence of the orbits, more observations are available at higher latitudes. In this work, we used a combination of MODIS thermal data and Landsat optical data for the estimation of biomass burned in peatland ecosystems. First, the global MODIS active fire detection algorithm (Giglio et al. 2003) was modified, adapting the temperature thresholds to maximize the number of detections in boreal regions. Then, following the approach proposed by Boschetti and Roy (2009), the FRP point estimations were interpolated in time and space to cover the full temporal and spatial extent of the burned area, mapped with Landsat5 TM data. The methodology was tested on a large burned area in Alaska, and the results compared to published field measurements (Turetsky et al. 2011).

  17. Computation of thyroid doses and carcinogenic radiation risks to patients undergoing neck CT examinations.

    PubMed

    Huda, Walter; Spampinato, Maria V; Tipnis, Sameer V; Magill, Dennise

    2013-10-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate how differences in patient anatomy and CT technical factors in neck CT impact on thyroid doses and the corresponding carcinogenic risks. The CTDIvol and dose-length product used in 11 consecutive neck CT studies, as well as data on automatic exposure control (AEC) tube current variation(s) from the image DICOM header, were recorded. For each CT image that included the thyroid, the mass equivalent water cylinder was estimated based on the patient cross-sectional area and average relative attenuation coefficient (Hounsfield unit, HU). Patient thyroid doses were estimated by accounting for radiation intensity at the location of the patient's thyroid, patient size and the scan length. Thyroid doses were used to estimate thyroid cancer risks as a function of patient demographics using risk factors in BEIR VII. The length of the thyroid glands ranged from 21 to 54 mm with an average length of 42 ± 12 mm. Water cylinder diameters corresponding to the central slice through the patient thyroid ranged from 18 to 32 cm with a mean of 25 ± 5 cm. The average CTDIvol (32-cm phantom) used to perform these scans was 26 ± 6 mGy, but the use of an AEC increased the tube current by an average of 44 % at the thyroid mid-point. Thyroid doses ranged from 29 to 80 mGy, with an average of 55 ± 19 mGy. A 20-y-old female receiving the highest thyroid dose of 80 mGy would have a thyroid cancer risk of nearly 0.1 %, but radiation risks decreased very rapidly with increasing patient age. The key factors that affect thyroid doses in neck CT examinations are the radiation intensity at the thyroid location and the size of the patient. The corresponding patient thyroid cancer risk is markedly influenced by patient sex and age. PMID:23579263

  18. Biological and physical methods for risk estimation in interventional radiology: a detrimental effect approach.

    PubMed

    Ramos, M; Montoro, A; Almonacid, M; Barquinero, S Ferrer J F; Tortosa, R; Miró, R; Verdú, G; Rodríguez, P; Barrios, L L; Villaescusa, J I

    2011-01-01

    Interventional radiologists and staff members are frequently exposed to the effects of direct and scattered radiation, which undergo in deterministic effects (radiodermitis, aged skin, cataracts, telangiectasia in nasal region, vasocellular epitelioms, hands depilation) and/or stochastic ones (cancer incidence). A methodology has been proposed for estimating the radiation risk or detriment from a group of six exposed interventional radiologists of the Hospital Universitario La Fe (Valencia, Spain), which had developed general exposition symptoms attributable to deterministic effects of ionizing radiation. Equivalent doses have been periodically registered using termoluminiscence dosimeters (TLD's) and wrist dosimeters, H(p)(10) and H(p)(0.07), respectively, and estimated through the observation of translocations in lymphocytes of peripheral blood (biological methods), by extrapolating the yield of translocations to their respective dose-effect curves. The software RADRISK has been applied for estimating radiation risks in these occupational radiation exposures. The minimum and maximum average excess ratio for skin cancer has been, using wrist physical doses, of [1.03 × 10(-3), 5.06 × 10(-2)], concluding that there is not an increased risk of skin cancer incidence. The minimum and maximum average excess ratio for leukemia has been, using TLD physical doses, of [7.84 × 10(-2), 3.36 × 10(-1)], and using biological doses, of [1.40 × 10(-1), 1.51], which is considerably higher than incidence rates, showing an excess radio-induced risk of leukemia in the group under study. Finally, the maximum radiological detriment in the group, evaluated as the total number of radio-induced cancers using physical dosimetry, has been of 2.18 per 1000 person-year (skin and leukemia), and using biological dosimetry of 9.20 per 1000 PY (leukemia). As a conclusion, this study has provided an assessment of the non-deterministic effects (rate of radio-induced cancer incidence

  19. The Concentration Of Tritium In Urine And Internal Radiation Dose Estimation Of PTNBR Radiation Workers

    SciTech Connect

    Tjahaja, Poppy Intan; Sukmabuana, Putu; Aisyah, Neneng Nur

    2010-12-23

    The operation of Triga 2000 reactor in Nuclear Technology Center for Materials and Radiometry (PTNBR BATAN) normally produce tritium radionuclide which is the activation product of deuterium atom in reactor primary cooling water. According to previous monitoring, tritium was detected with the concentration of 8.236{+-}0.677 kBq/L and 1.704{+-}0.046 Bq/L in the primary cooling water and in reactor hall air, respectively. The tritium in reactor hall air chronically can be inhaled by the workers. In this research, tritium content in radiation workers' urine was determined to estimate the internal radiation doses received by the workers. About 50-100 mL of urine samples were collected from 48 PTNBR workers that is classified as 24 radiation workers and 24 administration staffs as a control. Urine samples of 25 mL were then prepared by active charcoal and KMnO{sub 4} addition and followed with complete distillation. The 2 mL of distillate was added with 13 mL scintillator, shaked vigorously and remained in cool and dark condition for about 24 hours. The tritium in the samples was then measured using liquid scintillation counter (LSC) for 1 hour. From the measurement results it was obtained that the tritium concentration in the urine of radiation workers were in the range of not detected and 5.191 Bq/mL, whereas in the administration staffs the concentration were between not detected and 4.607 Bq/mL. Internally radiation doses were calculated using the tritium concentration data, and it was found the averages about 0.602 {mu}Sv/year and 0.532 {mu}Sv/year for radiation workers and administration staffs, respectively. The doses received by the workers were lower than that of the permissible doses from tritium, i.e. 40 {mu}Sv/year.

  20. The Concentration Of Tritium In Urine And Internal Radiation Dose Estimation Of PTNBR Radiation Workers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tjahaja, Poppy Intan; Sukmabuana, Putu; Aisyah, Neneng Nur

    2010-12-01

    The operation of Triga 2000 reactor in Nuclear Technology Center for Materials and Radiometry (PTNBR BATAN) normally produce tritium radionuclide which is the activation product of deuterium atom in reactor primary cooling water. According to previous monitoring, tritium was detected with the concentration of 8.236±0.677 kBq/L and 1.704±0.046 Bq/L in the primary cooling water and in reactor hall air, respectively. The tritium in reactor hall air chronically can be inhaled by the workers. In this research, tritium content in radiation workers' urine was determined to estimate the internal radiation doses received by the workers. About 50-100 mL of urine samples were collected from 48 PTNBR workers that is classified as 24 radiation workers and 24 administration staffs as a control. Urine samples of 25 mL were then prepared by active charcoal and KMnO4 addition and followed with complete distillation. The 2 mL of distillate was added with 13 mL scintillator, shaked vigorously and remained in cool and dark condition for about 24 hours. The tritium in the samples was then measured using liquid scintillation counter (LSC) for 1 hour. From the measurement results it was obtained that the tritium concentration in the urine of radiation workers were in the range of not detected and 5.191 Bq/mL, whereas in the administration staffs the concentration were between not detected and 4.607 Bq/mL. Internally radiation doses were calculated using the tritium concentration data, and it was found the averages about 0.602 μSv/year and 0.532 μSv/year for radiation workers and administration staffs, respectively. The doses received by the workers were lower than that of the permissible doses from tritium, i.e. 40 μSv/year.

  1. Cancer Risk Estimates from Space Flight Estimated Using Yields of Chromosome Damage in Astronaut's Blood Lymphocytes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    George, Kerry A.; Rhone, J.; Chappell, L. J.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2011-01-01

    To date, cytogenetic damage has been assessed in blood lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. Chromosome damage was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridization whole chromosome analysis techniques. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their preflight yield, and biodosimetry estimates were within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Follow up analyses have been performed on most of the astronauts at intervals ranging from around 6 months to many years after flight, and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long-duration missions have so far been assessed in four individuals. Chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes have been validated as biomarkers of cancer risk and cytogenetic damage can therefore be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by individual crewmembers after their respective missions. Traditional risk assessment models are based on epidemiological data obtained on Earth in cohorts exposed predominantly to acute doses of gamma-rays, and the extrapolation to the space environment is highly problematic, involving very large uncertainties. Cytogenetic damage could play a key role in reducing uncertainty in risk estimation because it is incurred directly in the space environment, using specimens from the astronauts themselves. Relative cancer risks were estimated from the biodosimetry data using the quantitative approach derived from the European Study Group on Cytogenetic Biomarkers and Health database. Astronauts were categorized into low, medium, or high tertiles according to their yield of chromosome damage. Age adjusted tertile rankings were used to estimate cancer risk and results were compared with values obtained using traditional modeling approaches. Individual tertile rankings increased after space

  2. Methodology for Estimating Radiation Dose Rates to Freshwater Biota Exposed to Radionuclides in the Environment

    SciTech Connect

    Blaylock, B.G.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to present a methodology for evaluating the potential for aquatic biota to incur effects from exposure to chronic low-level radiation in the environment. Aquatic organisms inhabiting an environment contaminated with radioactivity receive external radiation from radionuclides in water, sediment, and from other biota such as vegetation. Aquatic organisms receive internal radiation from radionuclides ingested via food and water and, in some cases, from radionuclides absorbed through the skin and respiratory organs. Dose rate equations, which have been developed previously, are presented for estimating the radiation dose rate to representative aquatic organisms from alpha, beta, and gamma irradiation from external and internal sources. Tables containing parameter values for calculating radiation doses from selected alpha, beta, and gamma emitters are presented in the appendix to facilitate dose rate calculations. The risk of detrimental effects to aquatic biota from radiation exposure is evaluated by comparing the calculated radiation dose rate to biota to the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) recommended dose rate limit of 0.4 mGy h{sup -1} (1 rad d{sup -1}). A dose rate no greater than 0.4 mGy h{sup -1} to the most sensitive organisms should ensure the protection of populations of aquatic organisms. DOE's recommended dose rate is based on a number of published reviews on the effects of radiation on aquatic organisms that are summarized in the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements Report No. 109 (NCRP 1991). The literature identifies the developing eggs and young of some species of teleost fish as the most radiosensitive organisms. DOE recommends that if the results of radiological models or dosimetric measurements indicate that a radiation dose rate of 0.1 mGy h{sup -1} will be exceeded, then a more detailed evaluation of the potential ecological consequences of radiation exposure to endemic populations should be

  3. Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

    2013-04-01

    Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times

  4. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    SciTech Connect

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  5. Estimation of Hail Risk in the UK and Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Eric; Parker, Melanie; Higgs, Stephanie

    2016-04-01

    Observations of hail events in Europe, and the UK especially, are relatively limited. In order to determine hail risk it is therefore necessary to use information other than relying purely on the historical record. One such methodology is to leverage reanalysis data, in this case ERA-Interim, along with a numerical model (WRF) to recreate the past state of the atmosphere. Relevant atmospheric properties can be extracted and used in a regression model to determine hail probability for each day contained within the reanalyses. The results presented here show the results of using a regression model based on convective available potential energy, deep level shear and weather type. Combined these parameters represent the probability of severe thunderstorm, and in turn hail, activity. Once the probability of hail occurring on each day is determined this can be used as the basis of a stochastic catalogue which can be used in the estimation of hail risk.

  6. Evidence Report: Risk of Acute Radiation Syndromes Due to Solar Particle Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnell, Lisa; Blattnig, Steve; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice; Kim, Myung-Hee; Norman, Ryan; Patel, Zarana; Simonsen, Lisa; Wu, Honglu

    2016-01-01

    Crew health and performance may be impacted by a major solar particle event (SPE), multiple SPEs, or the cumulative effect of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and SPEs. Beyond low-Earth orbit, the protection of the Earth's magnetosphere is no longer available, such that increased shielding and protective mechanisms are necessary in order to prevent acute radiation sickness and impacts to mission success or crew survival. While operational monitoring and shielding are expected to minimize radiation exposures, there are EVA scenarios outside of low-Earth orbit where the risk of prodromal effects, including nausea, vomiting, anorexia, and fatigue, as well as skin injury and depletion of the blood-forming organs (BFO), may occur. There is a reasonable concern that a compromised immune system due to high skin doses from a SPE or due to synergistic space flight factors (e.g., microgravity) may lead to increased risk to the BFO. The primary data available at present are derived from analyses of medical patients and persons accidentally exposed to acute, high doses of low-linear energy transfer (LET) (or terrestrial) radiation. Data more specific to the space flight environment must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of increase of this risk and to develop appropriate protection strategies. In particular, information addressing the distinct differences between solar proton exposures and terrestrial exposure scenarios, including radiation quality, dose-rate effects, and non-uniform dose distributions, is required for accurate risk estimation.

  7. Radiation-related cancer risks at low doses among atomic bomb survivors.

    PubMed

    Pierce, D A; Preston, D L

    2000-08-01

    To clarify the information in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation data regarding cancer risks of low radiation doses, we focus on survivors with doses less than 0.5 Sv. For reasons indicated, we also restrict attention mainly to survivors within 3, 000 m of the hypocenter of the bombs. Analysis is of solid cancer incidence from 1958-1994, involving 7,000 cancer cases among 50,000 survivors in that dose and distance range. The results provide useful risk estimates for doses as low as 0.05-0.1 Sv, which are not overestimated by linear risk estimates computed from the wider dose ranges 0-2 Sv or 0-4 Sv. There is a statistically significant risk in the range 0-0.1 Sv, and an upper confidence limit on any possible threshold is computed as 0.06 Sv. It is indicated that modification of the neutron dose estimates currently under consideration would not markedly change the conclusions. PMID:10931690

  8. Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Estimation and Risk Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  9. Estimation of risks associated with paediatric cochlear implantation.

    PubMed

    Johnston, J Cyne; Smith, Andrée Durieux; Fitzpatrick, Elizabeth; O'Connor, Annette; Angus, Douglas; Benzies, Karen; Schramm, David

    2010-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to estimate the rates of complications associated with paediatric cochlear implantation use: a) at one Canadian cochlear implant (CI) centre, and b) in the published literature. It comprised a retrospective hospital-based chart review and a concurrent review of complications in the published literature. There were 224 children who had undergone surgery from 1994 to June 2007. Results indicate that the rates of complications at the local Canadian paediatric CI centre are not significantly different from the literature rates for all examined complication types. This hospital-based retrospective chart review and review of the literature provide readers with an estimation of the risks to aid in evidence-based decision-making surrounding paediatric cochlear implantation. PMID:19655302

  10. Radiation Dose Associated with Common Computed Tomography Examinations and the Associated Lifetime Attributable Risk of Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Smith-Bindman, Rebecca; Lipson, Jafi; Marcus, Ralph; Kim, Kwang Pyo; Mahesh, Mahadevappa; Gould, Robert; de Gonzalez, Amy Berrington; Miglioretti, Diana L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Use of computed tomography (CT) for diagnostic evaluation has increased dramatically over the past two decades. Even though CT is associated with substantially higher radiation exposure than conventional x-rays, typical clinical doses are not known. We sought to estimate the radiation dose associated with common CT studies in clinical practice; assess variation in dose across types of studies, patients, and institutions; and quantify the potential cancer risk associated with these examinations. Methods Retrospective cross-sectional study describing radiation dose associated with the 11 most common types of diagnostic CT studies performed on 1,119 consecutive adult patients at four San Francisco Bay Area institutions between January 1 and May 30, 2008. We estimated lifetime attributable risks of cancer by study type from these measured doses. Results Radiation doses varied significantly between the different types of CT studies. The overall median effective doses ranged from 2.1 milli-Sieverts (mSv) for a routine head CT (interquartile range [IQR] 1.8–2.8) to 31 mSv (IQR 21–43) for a multiphase abdomen and pelvis CT. Within each type of CT study, effective dose varied significantly within and across institutions, with a mean 13-fold variation between the highest and lowest dose for each study type. The estimated number of CTs that will lead to the development of a cancer varied widely depending on the specific type of CT examination and the patient’s age and sex. An estimated 1 in 270 women who underwent a coronary angiography CT at age 40 will develop cancer from that CT (1 in 600 men), compared with an estimated 1 in 8,100 women who had routine head CT at the same age (1 in 11, 080 men). For 20-year olds the risks were approximately doubled, and for 60-year olds, the risks were approximately 50% lower. Conclusion Radiation doses from commonly performed diagnostic CT examinations were higher and more variable than generally quoted, highlighting the

  11. Estimating Radiation Dose Metrics for Patients Undergoing Tube Current Modulation CT Scans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMillan, Kyle Lorin

    Computed tomography (CT) has long been a powerful tool in the diagnosis of disease, identification of tumors and guidance of interventional procedures. With CT examinations comes the concern of radiation exposure and the associated risks. In order to properly understand those risks on a patient-specific level, organ dose must be quantified for each CT scan. Some of the most widely used organ dose estimates are derived from fixed tube current (FTC) scans of a standard sized idealized patient model. However, in current clinical practice, patient size varies from neonates weighing just a few kg to morbidly obese patients weighing over 200 kg, and nearly all CT exams are performed with tube current modulation (TCM), a scanning technique that adjusts scanner output according to changes in patient attenuation. Methods to account for TCM in CT organ dose estimates have been previously demonstrated, but these methods are limited in scope and/or restricted to idealized TCM profiles that are not based on physical observations and not scanner specific (e.g. don't account for tube limits, scanner-specific effects, etc.). The goal of this work was to develop methods to estimate organ doses to patients undergoing CT scans that take into account both the patient size as well as the effects of TCM. This work started with the development and validation of methods to estimate scanner-specific TCM schemes for any voxelized patient model. An approach was developed to generate estimated TCM schemes that match actual TCM schemes that would have been acquired on the scanner for any patient model. Using this approach, TCM schemes were then generated for a variety of body CT protocols for a set of reference voxelized phantoms for which TCM information does not currently exist. These are whole body patient models representing a variety of sizes, ages and genders that have all radiosensitive organs identified. TCM schemes for these models facilitated Monte Carlo-based estimates of fully

  12. Radiation Dose-Response Relationships and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Strom, Daniel J.

    2005-07-05

    The notion of a dose-response relationship was probably invented shortly after the discovery of poisons, the invention of alcoholic beverages, and the bringing of fire into a confined space in the forgotten depths of ancient prehistory. The amount of poison or medicine ingested can easily be observed to affect the behavior, health, or sickness outcome. Threshold effects, such as death, could be easily understood for intoxicants, medicine, and poisons. As Paracelsus (1493-1541), the 'father' of modern toxicology said, 'It is the dose that makes the poison.' Perhaps less obvious is the fact that implicit in such dose-response relationships is also the notion of dose rate. Usually, the dose is administered fairly acutely, in a single injection, pill, or swallow; a few puffs on a pipe; or a meal of eating or drinking. The same amount of intoxicants, medicine, or poisons administered over a week or month might have little or no observable effect. Thus, before the discovery of ionizing radiation in the late 19th century, toxicology ('the science of poisons') and pharmacology had deeply ingrained notions of dose-response relationships. This chapter demonstrates that the notion of a dose-response relationship for ionizing radiation is hopelessly simplistic from a scientific standpoint. While useful from a policy or regulatory standpoint, dose-response relationships cannot possibly convey enough information to describe the problem from a quantitative view of radiation biology, nor can they address societal values. Three sections of this chapter address the concepts, observations, and theories that contribute to the scientific input to the practice of managing risks from exposure to ionizing radiation. The presentation begins with irradiation regimes, followed by responses to high and low doses of ionizing radiation, and a discussion of how all of this can inform radiation risk management. The knowledge that is really needed for prediction of individual risk is presented

  13. Fetal radiation doses and subsequent risks from X-ray examinations: Should we be concerned?

    PubMed Central

    Chaparian, Ali; Aghabagheri, Mahdi

    2013-01-01

    Background: Pregnant women are sometimes exposed to ionizing radiation in radiology examinations for various reasons. In such cases, the radiation dose to the conceptus and subsequent risks should be estimated. Objective: The purpose of this study was the calculation and presentation of fetal dose and subsequent risks resulted from different X-ray examinations. Materials and Methods: An analytical simulation study was conducted and six common radiographies in different views and three types of special examinations were evaluated. The entrance skin exposure (ESE) was measured using a solid-state dosimeter. A Monte Carlo program was used in order to simulate different views of X-ray examinations and calculate the radiation doses received by the conceptus for every view of each examination. Then the risk of childhood cancer and small head size were calculated for different radiographies. Results: The fetal doses and consequence risks of the small head size and childhood cancer for the radiographs of chest, skull, and sinuses were negligible but the risks of childhood cancer and small head size due to radiographies of abdomen, lumbar spine, and pelvis areas were ponderable. Conclusion: Results of this study can be used for the pregnant women radiographies management. PMID:24639714

  14. The carcinogenic risks of low-LET and high-LET ionizing radiations

    SciTech Connect

    Fabrikant, J.I. )

    1989-08-01

    New information is available concerning the carcinogenic effects of radiation and the implications for risk assessment and risk management. This information comes from further follow-up of the epidemiological studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, patients irradiated medically for cancer and allied conditions, and workers exposed in various occupations. In the Japanese atomic bomb survivors the carcinogenic risks are estimated to be somewhat higher than previously, due to the reassessment of the atomic-bomb dosimetry, further follow-up with increase in the number of excess cancer deaths, particularly in survivors irradiated early in life, and changes in the methods of analysis to compute the age-specific risks of cancer. Because of the characteristics of the atomic bomb survivor series as regards sample size, age and sex distribution, duration for follow-up, person-years at risk, and type of dosimetry, the mortality experience of the atomic bomb survivors was selected by the UNSCEAR Committee and the BEIR V Committee as the more appropriate basis for projecting risk estimates for the general population. In the atomic bomb survivors, the dose-effect relationship for overall cancer mortality other than leukemia is consistent with linearity below 3 Gy, while the dose-effect relationship for leukemia, excluding chronic lymphatic leukemia, conforms best to a linear-quadratic function. The shape of the dose-incidence curve at low doses still remains uncertain, and the data do not rule out the possible existence of a threshold for an neoplasm. The excess relative risk of mortality from all cancers combined is estimated to be 1.39 per Gy (shielded kerma), which corresponds to an absolute risk of 10.0 excess cancer deaths per 10,000 PYGy; the relative risks is 1.41 at 1 Gy (organ-absorbed dose), and an absolute risk of 13.07 excess cancer deaths per 10,000 PYGy. 19 refs.

  15. The myth of mean dose as a surrogate for radiation risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samei, Ehsan; Li, Xiang; Chen, Baiyu; Reiman, Robert

    2010-04-01

    The current estimations of risk associated with medical imaging procedures rely on assessing the organ dose via direct measurements or simulation. Each organ dose is assumed to be homogeneous, a representative sample or mean of which is weighted by a corresponding tissue weighting factor provided by ICRP publication 103. The weighted values are summed to provide Effective Dose (ED), the most-widely accepted surrogate for population radiation risk. For individual risk estimation, one may employ Effective Risk (ER), which further incorporates gender- and age-specific risk factors. However, both the tissue-weighting factors (as used by ED) and the risk factors (as used by ER) were derived (mostly from the atomic bomb survivor data) under the assumption of a homogeneous dose distribution within each organ. That assumption is significantly violated in most medical imaging procedures. In chest CT, for example, superficial organs (eg, breasts) demonstrate a heterogeneous distribution while organs on the peripheries of the irradiation field (eg, liver) possess a nearly discontinuous dose profile. Projection radiography and mammography involve an even wider range of organ dose heterogeneity spanning up to two orders of magnitude. As such, mean dose or point measured dose values do not reflect the maximum energy deposited per unit volume of the organ, and therefore, effective dose or effective risk, as commonly computed, can misrepresent irradiation risk. In this paper, we report the magnitude of the dose heterogeneity in both CT and projection x-ray imaging, provide an assessment of its impact on irradiation risk, and explore an alternative model-based approach for risk estimation for imaging techniques involving heterogeneous organ dose distributions.

  16. Radiation exposure and risk assessment for critical female body organs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atwell, William; Weyland, Mark D.; Hardy, Alva C.

    1991-01-01

    Space radiation exposure limits for astronauts are based on recommendations of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. These limits now include the age at exposure and sex of the astronaut. A recently-developed computerized anatomical female (CAF) model is discussed in detail. Computer-generated, cross-sectional data are presented to illustrate the completeness of the CAF model. By applying ray-tracing techniques, shield distribution functions have been computed to calculate absorbed dose and dose equivalent values for a variety of critical body organs (e.g., breasts, lungs, thyroid gland, etc.) and mission scenarios. Specific risk assessments, i.e., cancer induction and mortality, are reviewed.

  17. Health risks in wastewater irrigation: comparing estimates from quantitative microbial risk analyses and epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Mara, D D; Sleigh, P A; Blumenthal, U J; Carr, R M

    2007-03-01

    The combination of standard quantitative microbial risk analysis (QMRA) techniques and 10,000-trial Monte Carlo risk simulations was used to estimate the human health risks associated with the use of wastewater for unrestricted and restricted crop irrigation. A risk of rotavirus infection of 10(-2) per person per year (pppy) was used as the reference level of acceptable risk. Using the model scenario of involuntary soil ingestion for restricted irrigation, the risk of rotavirus infection is approximately 10(-2) pppy when the wastewater contains < or =10(6) Escherichia coli per 100ml and when local agricultural practices are highly mechanised. For labour-intensive agriculture the risk of rotavirus infection is approximately 10(-2) pppy when the wastewater contains < or = 10(5) E. coli per 100ml; however, the wastewater quality should be < or = 10(4) E. coli per 100ml when children under 15 are exposed. With the model scenario of lettuce consumption for unrestricted irrigation, the use of wastewaters containing < or =10(4) E. coli per 100ml results in a rotavirus infection risk of approximately 10(-2) pppy; however, again based on epidemiological evidence from Mexico, the current WHO guideline level of < or =1,000 E. coli per 100ml should be retained for root crops eaten raw. PMID:17402278

  18. Effects of IL-10 haplotype and atomic bomb radiation exposure on gastric cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, Tomonori; Ito, Reiko; Cologne, John; Maki, Mayumi; Morishita, Yukari; Nagamura, Hiroko; Sasaki, Keiko; Hayashi, Ikue; Imai, Kazue; Yoshida, Kengo; Kajimura, Junko; Kyoizumi, Seishi; Kusunoki, Yoichiro; Ohishi, Waka; Fujiwara, Saeko; Akahoshi, Masazumi; Nakachi, Kei

    2013-07-01

    Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the cancers that reveal increased risk of mortality and incidence in atomic bomb survivors. The incidence of gastric cancer in the Life Span Study cohort of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) increased with radiation dose (gender-averaged excess relative risk per Gy = 0.28) and remains high more than 65 years after exposure. To assess a possible role of gene-environment interaction, we examined the dose response for gastric cancer incidence based on immunosuppression-related IL-10 genotype, in a cohort study with 200 cancer cases (93 intestinal, 96 diffuse and 11 other types) among 4,690 atomic bomb survivors participating in an immunological substudy. Using a single haplotype block composed of four haplotype-tagging SNPs (comprising the major haplotype allele IL-10-ATTA and the minor haplotype allele IL-10-GGCG, which are categorized by IL-10 polymorphisms at -819A>G and -592T>G, +1177T>C and +1589A>G), multiplicative and additive models for joint effects of radiation and this IL-10 haplotyping were examined. The IL-10 minor haplotype allele(s) was a risk factor for intestinal type gastric cancer but not for diffuse type gastric cancer. Radiation was not associated with intestinal type gastric cancer. In diffuse type gastric cancer, the haplotype-specific excess relative risk (ERR) for radiation was statistically significant only in the major homozygote category of IL-10 (ERR = 0.46/Gy, P = 0.037), whereas estimated ERR for radiation with the minor IL-10 homozygotes was close to 0 and nonsignificant. Thus, the minor IL-10 haplotype might act to reduce the radiation related risk of diffuse-type gastric cancer. The results suggest that this IL-10 haplotyping might be involved in development of radiation-associated gastric cancer of the diffuse type, and that IL-10 haplotypes may explain individual differences in the radiation-related risk of gastric cancer. PMID:23772925

  19. Survivorship models for estimating the risk of decompression sickness.

    PubMed

    Kumar, K V; Powell, M R

    1994-07-01

    Several approaches have been used for modeling the incidence of decompression sickness (DCS) such as Hill's dose-response and logistic regression. Most of these methods do not include the time-to-onset information in the model. Survival analysis (failure time analysis) is appropriate when the time to onset of an event is of interest. The applicability of survival analysis for modeling the risk of DCS is illustrated by using data obtained from hypobaric chamber exposures simulating extravehicular activities (n = 426). Univariate analysis of incidence-free survival proportions were obtained for Doppler-detectable circulating microbubbles (CMB), symptoms of DCS and test aborts. A log-linear failure time regression model with 360-min half-time tissue ratio (TR) as covariate was constructed, and estimated probabilities for various TR values were calculated. Further regression analysis by including CMB status in this model showed significant improvement (p < 0.05) in the estimation of DCS over the previous model. Since DCS is dependent on the exposure pressure as well as the duration of exposure, we recommend the use of survival analysis for modeling the risk of DCS. PMID:7945136

  20. Radiologists Don't Face Higher Risk of Radiation-Related Death: Study

    MedlinePlus

    ... Don't Face Higher Risk of Radiation-Related Death: Study Efforts to improve monitoring and protective equipment ... after 1940 are not at greater risk of death from chronic exposure to low levels of radiation, ...

  1. High-Dose Radiation May Be No Better for Low-Risk Prostate Cancer

    MedlinePlus

    ... Radiation May Be No Better for Low-Risk Prostate Cancer Study finds no benefits in disease progression, survival ... doses of radiation may not benefit low-risk prostate cancer patients, a new review suggests. "In the field ...

  2. Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as

  3. Combining four Monte Carlo estimators for radiation momentum deposition

    SciTech Connect

    Urbatsch, Todd J; Hykes, Joshua M

    2010-11-18

    Using four distinct Monte Carlo estimators for momentum deposition - analog, absorption, collision, and track-length estimators - we compute a combined estimator. In the wide range of problems tested, the combined estimator always has a figure of merit (FOM) equal to or better than the other estimators. In some instances the gain in FOM is only a few percent higher than the FOM of the best solo estimator, the track-length estimator, while in one instance it is better by a factor of 2.5. Over the majority of configurations, the combined estimator's FOM is 10-20% greater than any of the solo estimators FOM. In addition, the numerical results show that the track-length estimator is the most important term in computing the combined estimator, followed far behind by the analog estimator. The absorption and collision estimators make negligible contributions.

  4. Risk assessment for the harmful effects of UVB radiation on the immunological resistance to infectious diseases.

    PubMed Central

    Goettsch, W; Garssen, J; Slob, W; de Gruijl, F R; Van Loveren, H

    1998-01-01

    Risk assessment comprises four steps: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. In this study, the effects of increased ultraviolet B(UVB, 280-315 nm) radiation on immune functions and the immunological resistance to infectious diseases in rats were analyzed according to this strategy. In a parallelogram approach, nonthreshold mathematical methods were used to estimate the risk for the human population after increased exposure to UVB radiation. These data demonstrate, using a worst-case strategy (sensitive individuals, no adaptation), that exposure for approximately 90 min (local noon) at 40 degrees N in July might lead to 50% suppression of specific T-cell mediated responses to Listeria monocytogenes in humans who were not preexposed to UVB (i.e., not adapted). Additionally, a 5% decrease in the thickness of the ozone layer might shorten this exposure time by approximately 2.5%. These data demonstrate that UVB radiation, at doses relevant to outdoor exposure, may affect the specific cellular immune response to Listeria bacteria in humans. Whether this will also lead to a lowered resistance (i.e.,increased pathogenic load) in humans is not known, although it was demonstrated that UVB-induced immunosuppression in rats was sufficient to increase the pathogenic load. Epidemiology studies are needed to validate and improve estimates for the potential effects of increased UVB exposure on infectious diseases in humans. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 PMID:9435148

  5. Ionizing radiation risks to Satellite Power Systems (SPS) workers in space

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-12-01

    A reference Satellite Power System (SPS) has been designed by NASA and its contractors for the purposes of evaluating the concept and carrying out assessments of the various consequences of development, including those on the health of the space workers. The Department of Energy has responsibility for directing various assessments. Present planning calls for the SPS workers to move from Earth to a low earth orbit (LEO) at an altitude of 500 kilometers; to travel by a transfer ellipse (TE) trajectory to a geosynchronous orbit (GEO) at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers; and to remain in GEO orbit for about 90 percent of the total time aloft. The radiation risks to the health of workers who will construct and maintain solar power satellites in the space environment are studied. The charge to the committee was: (a) to evaluate the radiation environment estimated for the Reference System which could represent a hazard; (b) to assess the possible somatic and genetic radiation hazards; and (c) to estimate the risks to the health of SPS workers due to space radiation exposure, and to make recommendations based on these conclusions. Details are presented. (WHK)

  6. Time-to-Compromise Model for Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2005-09-01

    We propose a new model for estimating the time to compromise a system component that is visible to an attacker. The model provides an estimate of the expected value of the time-to-compromise as a function of known and visible vulnerabilities, and attacker skill level. The time-to-compromise random process model is a composite of three subprocesses associated with attacker actions aimed at the exploitation of vulnerabilities. In a case study, the model was used to aid in a risk reduction estimate between a baseline Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system and the baseline system enhanced through a specific set of control system security remedial actions. For our case study, the total number of system vulnerabilities was reduced by 86% but the dominant attack path was through a component where the number of vulnerabilities was reduced by only 42% and the time-to-compromise of that component was increased by only 13% to 30% depending on attacker skill level.

  7. Aspects of operational radiation protection during dismantling of nuclear facilities relevant for the estimation of internal doses.

    PubMed

    Labarta, T

    2007-01-01

    Operational radiation protection of workers during the dismantling of nuclear facilities is based on the same radiation protection principles as that applied in its exploitation period with the objective of ensuring proper implementation of the as-low-as-reasonably-achievable (ALARA) principle. These principles are: prior determination of the nature and magnitude of radiological risk; classification of workplaces and workers depending on the risks; implementation of control measures; monitoring of zones and working conditions, including, if necessary, individual monitoring. From the experiences and the lessons learned during the dismantling processes carried out in Spain, several important aspects in the practical implementation of these principles that directly influence and ensure an adequate prevention of exposures and the estimation of internal doses are pointed out, with special emphasis on the estimation of internal doses due to transuranic intakes. PMID:17951606

  8. Ionizing radiation exposures in treatments of solid neoplasms are not associated with subsequent increased risks of chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Radivoyevitch, Tomas; Sachs, Rainer K; Gale, Robert Peter; Smith, Mitchell R; Hill, Brian T

    2016-04-01

    Exposure to ionizing radiation is not thought to cause chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Challenging this notion are recent data suggesting CLL incidence may be increased by radiation exposure from the atomic bombs (after many decades), uranium mining and nuclear power facility accidents. To assess the effects of therapeutic ionizing radiation for the treatment of solid neoplasms we studied CLL risks in data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Specifically, we compared the risks of developing CLL in persons with a 1(st) non-hematologic cancer treated with or without ionizing radiation. We controlled for early detection effects on CLL risk induced by surveillance after 1(st) cancer diagnoses by forming all-time cumulative CLL relative risks (RR). We estimate such CLL RR to be 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 1.17, 1.23) for persons whose 1(st) cancer was not treated with ionizing radiation and 1.00 (0.96, 1.05) for persons whose 1(st) cancer was treated with ionizing radiations. These results imply that diagnosis of a solid neoplasm is associated with an increased risk of developing CLL only in persons whose 1(st) cancer was not treated with radiation therapy. PMID:26922774

  9. Moving towards a new paradigm for global flood risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, Tara J.; Devineni, Naresh; Lima, Carlos; Lall, Upmanu

    2013-04-01

    model is implemented at a finer resolution (<=1km) in order to more accurately model streamflow under flood conditions and estimate inundation. This approach allows for efficient computational simulation of the hydrology when not under potential for flooding with high-resolution flood wave modeling when there is flooding potential. We demonstrate the results of this flood risk estimation system for the Ohio River basin in the United States, a large river basin that is historically prone to flooding, with the intention of using it to do global flood risk assessment.

  10. Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peterson, L. E.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence

  11. Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station.

    PubMed

    Peterson, L E; Cucinotta, F A

    1999-12-01

    Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence

  12. Estimates of radiological risk from depleted uranium weapons in war scenarios.

    PubMed

    Durante, Marco; Pugliese, Mariagabriella

    2002-01-01

    Several weapons used during the recent conflict in Yugoslavia contain depleted uranium, including missiles and armor-piercing incendiary rounds. Health concern is related to the use of these weapons, because of the heavy-metal toxicity and radioactivity of uranium. Although chemical toxicity is considered the more important source of health risk related to uranium, radiation exposure has been allegedly related to cancers among veterans of the Balkan conflict, and uranium munitions are a possible source of contamination in the environment. Actual measurements of radioactive contamination are needed to assess the risk. In this paper, a computer simulation is proposed to estimate radiological risk related to different exposure scenarios. Dose caused by inhalation of radioactive aerosols and ground contamination induced by Tomahawk missile impact are simulated using a Gaussian plume model (HOTSPOT code). Environmental contamination and committed dose to the population resident in contaminated areas are predicted by a food-web model (RESRAD code). Small values of committed effective dose equivalent appear to be associated with missile impacts (50-y CEDE < 5 mSv), or population exposure by water-independent pathways (50-y CEDE < 80 mSv). The greatest hazard is related to the water contamination in conditions of effective leaching of uranium in the groundwater (50-y CEDE < 400 mSv). Even in this worst case scenario, the chemical toxicity largely predominates over radiological risk. These computer simulations suggest that little radiological risk is associated to the use of depleted uranium weapons. PMID:11768794

  13. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Safety and Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction...

  14. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Safety and Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction...

  15. Identifying the health risks from very low-dose sparsely ionizing radiation.

    PubMed Central

    Dreyer, N A; Friedlander, E

    1982-01-01

    The health risks from low-dose sparsely ionizing (low-LET) radiation have been the subject of continued debate. At present, quantitative estimates of risk are extremely uncertain due to the controversy surrounding both the dosimetry for A-bomb survivor data and the choice of mathematical models for extrapolating risk from high to low doses. Nevertheless, much can be learned about the nature of the health risks by reviewing the epidemiologic literature. We present a summary of diseases which have been associated with low-LET radiation (less than 1000 rad) in at least two independent studies, according to the mean cumulative organ dose at which the disease was observed. At organ doses of less than or equal to 50 rad, the only diseases that have been reported consistently are thyroid cancer, salivary gland tumors, and leukemia. The first two diseases were observed in association with x-ray epilation of the scalp for tinea capitis, a therapy which is no longer employed. On the other hand, leukemia has been observed repeatedly to occur at cumulative doses of greater than or equal to 30 rad low-LET radiation. PMID:7041660

  16. Declining bioavailability and inappropriate estimation of risk of persistent compounds

    SciTech Connect

    Kelsey, J.W.; Alexander, M.

    1997-03-01

    Earthworms (Eisenia foetida) assimilated decreasing amounts of atrazine, phenanthrene, and naphthalene that had been incubated for increasing periods of time in sterile soil. The amount of atrazine and phenanthrene removed from soil by mild extractants also decreased with time. The declines in bioavailability of the three compounds to earthworms and of naphthalene to bacteria were not reflected by analysis involving vigorous methods of solvent extraction; similar results for bioavailability of phenanthrene and 4-nitrophenol to bacteria were obtained in a previous study conducted at this laboratory. The authors suggest that regulations based on vigorous extractions for the analyses of persistent organic pollutants in soil do not appropriately estimate exposure or risk to susceptible populations.

  17. Radiation risk to low fluences of alpha particles may be greater than we thought.

    PubMed

    Zhou, H; Suzuki, M; Randers-Pehrson, G; Vannais, D; Chen, G; Trosko, J E; Waldren, C A; Hei, T K

    2001-12-01

    Based principally on the cancer incidence found in survivors of the atomic bombs dropped in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP) and the United States National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) have recommended that estimates of cancer risk for low dose exposure be extrapolated from higher doses by using a linear, no-threshold model. This recommendation is based on the dogma that the DNA of the nucleus is the main target for radiation-induced genotoxicity and, as fewer cells are directly damaged, the deleterious effects of radiation proportionally decline. In this paper, we used a precision microbeam to target an exact fraction (either 100% or < or =20%) of the cells in a confluent population and irradiated their nuclei with exactly one alpha particle each. We found that the frequencies of induced mutations and chromosomal changes in populations where some known fractions of nuclei were hit are consistent with non-hit cells contributing significantly to the response. In fact, irradiation of 10% of a confluent mammalian cell population with a single alpha particle per cell results in a mutant yield similar to that observed when all of the cells in the population are irradiated. This effect was significantly eliminated in cells pretreated with a 1 mM dose of octanol, which inhibits gap junction-mediated intercellular communication, or in cells carrying a dominant negative connexin 43 vector. The data imply that the relevant target for radiation mutagenesis is larger than an individual cell and suggest a need to reconsider the validity of the linear extrapolation in making risk estimates for low dose, high linear-energy-transfer (LET) radiation exposure. PMID:11734643

  18. Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Caribbean Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahibo, N.

    2004-05-01

    The tsunami problem for the coast of the Caribbean basin is discussed. Briefly the historical data of tsunami in the Caribbean Sea are presented. Numerical simulation of potential tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea is performed in the framework of the nonlinear-shallow theory. The tsunami wave height distribution along the Caribbean Coast is computed. These results are used to estimate the far-field tsunami potential of various coastal locations in the Caribbean Sea. In fact, five zones with tsunami low risk are selected basing on prognostic computations, they are: the bay "Golfo de Batabano" and the coast of province "Ciego de Avila" in Cuba, the Nicaraguan Coast (between Bluefields and Puerto Cabezas), the border between Mexico and Belize, the bay "Golfo de Venezuela" in Venezuela. The analysis of historical data confirms that there was no tsunami in the selected zones. Also, the wave attenuation in the Caribbean Sea is investigated; in fact, wave amplitude decreases in an order if the tsunami source is located on the distance up to 1000 km from the coastal location. Both factors wave attenuation and wave height distribution should be taken into account in the planned warning system for the Caribbean Sea. Specially the problem of tsunami risk for Lesser Antilles including Guadeloupe is discussed.

  19. How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?

    PubMed

    Mastrandrea, Rossana; Barrat, Alain

    2016-06-01

    Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts. PMID:27341027

  20. How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?

    PubMed Central

    Mastrandrea, Rossana; Barrat, Alain

    2016-01-01

    Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts. PMID:27341027

  1. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    PubMed

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified. PMID:25134026

  2. Retroperitoneal Sarcoma Target Volume and Organ at Risk Contour Delineation Agreement Among NRG Sarcoma Radiation Oncologists

    SciTech Connect

    Baldini, Elizabeth H.; Abrams, Ross A.; Bosch, Walter; Roberge, David; Haas, Rick L.M.; Catton, Charles N.; Indelicato, Daniel J.; Olsen, Jeffrey R.; Deville, Curtiland; Chen, Yen-Lin; Finkelstein, Steven E.; DeLaney, Thomas F.; Wang, Dian

    2015-08-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the variability in target volume and organ at risk (OAR) contour delineation for retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) among 12 sarcoma radiation oncologists. Methods and Materials: Radiation planning computed tomography (CT) scans for 2 cases of RPS were distributed among 12 sarcoma radiation oncologists with instructions for contouring gross tumor volume (GTV), clinical target volume (CTV), high-risk CTV (HR CTV: area judged to be at high risk of resulting in positive margins after resection), and OARs: bowel bag, small bowel, colon, stomach, and duodenum. Analysis of contour agreement was performed using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimation (STAPLE) algorithm and kappa statistics. Results: Ten radiation oncologists contoured both RPS cases, 1 contoured only RPS1, and 1 contoured only RPS2 such that each case was contoured by 11 radiation oncologists. The first case (RPS 1) was a patient with a de-differentiated (DD) liposarcoma (LPS) with a predominant well-differentiated (WD) component, and the second case (RPS 2) was a patient with DD LPS made up almost entirely of a DD component. Contouring agreement for GTV and CTV contours was high. However, the agreement for HR CTVs was only moderate. For OARs, agreement for stomach, bowel bag, small bowel, and colon was high, but agreement for duodenum (distorted by tumor in one of these cases) was fair to moderate. Conclusions: For preoperative treatment of RPS, sarcoma radiation oncologists contoured GTV, CTV, and most OARs with a high level of agreement. HR CTV contours were more variable. Further clarification of this volume with the help of sarcoma surgical oncologists is necessary to reach consensus. More attention to delineation of the duodenum is also needed.

  3. Legitimating a nuclear critic: John Gofman, radiation safety, and cancer risks.

    PubMed

    Semendeferi, Ioanna

    2008-01-01

    Whether low-level ionizing radiation has an effect on humans has been a polarizing issue for the last fifty years. The epicenter of this controversy has been the validity of the linear non-threshold dose-response model, according to which any amount of radiation, however small, causes damage to human genes and health. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the nuclear scientist and medical researcher John Gofman (1918-2007) played a pivotal role in the debate. Historical accounts have treated Gofman as a radical antinuclear scientist whose unscientific arguments put enormous political pressure on the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies. Gofman's bitter struggle with the Atomic Energy Commission, which funded his research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, partly accounts for this view. However, my analysis of Gofman's involvement in the low-level radiation debate shows how he also helped shift the focus in radiation safety from the risks of genetic damage or leukemia to somatic or cancer risks. His arguments led to the introduction of the linear non-threshold radiation model as a means of numerically estimating cancer risks. This was a watershed event in radiation-safety science and politics. Gofman's case sheds light on the process by which a scientist could secure legitimation even when his technical arguments threatened the government's interests. I conclude that it also points to an open issue in the history of antinuclear scientists, or of other politically active scientists or technology critics: treating them as critics should not preclude historians from treating them as scientists. PMID:20073123

  4. Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection Graphical User Interface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hateni N.; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2011-01-01

    The integration of human space applications risk projection models of organ dose and acute radiation risk has been a key problem. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUM DOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUM DOSE are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN. A GUI for the ARR and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. Only a graphical user interface (GUI) can handle input and output for BRYNTRN to the response models easily and correctly. The purpose of the GUI development for ARRBOD is to provide seamless integration of input and output manipulations for the operations of projection modules (BRYNTRN, SLMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model) in assessing the acute risk and the organ doses of significant Solar Particle Events (SPEs). The assessment of astronauts radiation risk from SPE is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks in future space missions. The ARRBOD GUI can identify the proper shielding solutions using the gender-specific organ dose assessments in order to avoid ARR symptoms, and to stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The quantified evaluation of ARR severities based on any given shielding configuration and a specified EVA or other mission

  5. Evaluation of dose homogenization and radiation carcinogenesis risk in total body irradiation for bone marrow transplantation.

    PubMed

    Oysul, K; Dirican, B; Beyzadeoglu, M; Sürenkok, S; Arpaci, F; Pak, Y

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to report on the dose homogeneity in total body irradiated patients undergoing Bone Marrow Transplantation (BMT), and carcinogenic risk in surviving patients. Between 1987 and 2001, 105 patients received hyperfractionated (6 fractions in 3 days) 12 Gy Total Body Irradiation (TBI) in our institution with lateral opposed fields. All the patients had measurements with thermoluminiscence dosimetry (TLD100) placed on seven bilateral body sites in vivo, controlled by the randophantom measurements to verify reasonable dose homogeneity achievement. The comorbid effects in the whole TBI conditioning group with at least three months post BMT follow-up were noted and surviving patients who had a minimum 5-year and maximum 14-year follow-up (median 7.8 years) have been evaluated for carcinogenic radiation risk on the basis of tissue weighting factors as defined by ICRP 60. Reasonable dose homogeneity by lateral opposed beam TBI has been obtained in all 105 patients in whom lateral TLD100 measurement means were within +5% of the planned doses. Calculated carcinogenesis risk factor was 11.34% for males and 12.40% for females, and no second-cancer has been detected whilst radiation-induced 5 cataracts and 10 interstitial pneumonia comorbidities were noted. Dose homogenization can be well achieved for hyperfractionated lateral-beam TBI with acceptable comorbidities and estimated second-cancer risk is significant but relatively low compared to the risk from the clinical indications for TBI. PMID:14628091

  6. What Becomes of Nuclear Risk Assessment in Light of Radiation Hormesis?

    PubMed Central

    Cuttler, Jerry M.

    2007-01-01

    A nuclear probabilistic risk or safety assessment (PRA or PSA) is a scientific calculation that uses assumptions and models to determine the likelihood of plant or fuel repository failures and the corresponding releases of radioactivity. Estimated radiation doses to the surrounding population are linked inappropriately to risks of cancer death and congenital malformations. Even though PRAs use very pessimistic assumptions, they demonstrate that nuclear power plants and fuel repositories are very safe compared with the health risks of other generating options or other risks that people readily accept. Because of the frightening negative images and the exaggerated safety and health concerns that are communicated, many people judge nuclear risks to be unacceptable and do not favour nuclear plants. Large-scale tests and experience with nuclear accidents demonstrate that even severe accidents expose the public to only low doses of radiation, and a century of research has demonstrated that such exposures are beneficial to health. A scientific basis for this phenomenon now exists. PRAs are valuable tools for improving plant designs, but if nuclear power is to play a significant role in meeting future energy needs, we must communicate its many real benefits and dispel the negative images formed by unscientific extrapolations of harmful effects at high doses. PMID:18648610

  7. What becomes of nuclear risk assessment in light of radiation hormesis?

    PubMed

    Cuttler, Jerry M

    2007-01-01

    A nuclear probabilistic risk or safety assessment (PRA or PSA) is a scientific calculation that uses assumptions and models to determine the likelihood of plant or fuel repository failures and the corresponding releases of radioactivity. Estimated radiation doses to the surrounding population are linked inappropriately to risks of cancer death and congenital malformations. Even though PRAs use very pessimistic assumptions, they demonstrate that nuclear power plants and fuel repositories are very safe compared with the health risks of other generating options or other risks that people readily accept. Because of the frightening negative images and the exaggerated safety and health concerns that are communicated, many people judge nuclear risks to be unacceptable and do not favour nuclear plants. Large-scale tests and experience with nuclear accidents demonstrate that even severe accidents expose the public to only low doses of radiation, and a century of research has demonstrated that such exposures are beneficial to health. A scientific basis for this phenomenon now exists. PRAs are valuable tools for improving plant designs, but if nuclear power is to play a significant role in meeting future energy needs, we must communicate its many real benefits and dispel the negative images formed by unscientific extrapolations of harmful effects at high doses. PMID:18648610

  8. Estimating the Reliability of Electronic Parts in High Radiation Fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Everline, Chester; Clark, Karla; Man, Guy; Rasmussen, Robert; Johnston, Allan; Kohlhase, Charles; Paulos, Todd

    2008-01-01

    Radiation effects on materials and electronic parts constrain the lifetime of flight systems visiting Europa. Understanding mission lifetime limits is critical to the design and planning of such a mission. Therefore, the operational aspects of radiation dose are a mission success issue. To predict and manage mission lifetime in a high radiation environment, system engineers need capable tools to trade radiation design choices against system design and reliability, and science achievements. Conventional tools and approaches provided past missions with conservative designs without the ability to predict their lifetime beyond the baseline mission.This paper describes a more systematic approach to understanding spacecraft design margin, allowing better prediction of spacecraft lifetime. This is possible because of newly available electronic parts radiation effects statistics and an enhanced spacecraft system reliability methodology. This new approach can be used in conjunction with traditional approaches for mission design. This paper describes the fundamentals of the new methodology.

  9. Soil-ecological risks for soil degradation estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Shirkin, Leonid; Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

    2016-04-01

    Soil degradation includes the processes of soil properties and quality worsening, primarily from the point of view of their productivity and decrease of ecosystem services quality. Complete soil cover destruction and/or functioning termination of soil forms of organic life are considered as extreme stages of soil degradation, and for the fragile ecosystems they are normally considered in the network of their desertification, land degradation and droughts /DLDD/ concept. Block-model of ecotoxic effects, generating soil and ecosystem degradation, has been developed as a result of the long-term field and laboratory research of sod-podzol soils, contaminated with waste, containing heavy metals. The model highlights soil degradation mechanisms, caused by direct and indirect impact of ecotoxicants on "phytocenosis- soil" system and their combination, frequently causing synergistic effect. The sequence of occurring changes here can be formalized as a theory of change (succession of interrelated events). Several stages are distinguished here - from heavy metals leaching (releasing) in waste and their migration downward the soil profile to phytoproductivity decrease and certain phytocenosis composition changes. Phytoproductivity decrease leads to the reduction of cellulose content introduced into the soil. The described feedback mechanism acts as a factor of sod-podzolic soil self-purification and stability. It has been shown, that using phytomass productivity index, integrally reflecting the worsening of soil properties complex, it is possible to solve the problems dealing with the dose-reflecting reactions creation and determination of critical levels of load for phytocenosis and corresponding soil-ecological risks. Soil-ecological risk in "phytocenosis- soil" system means probable negative changes and the loss of some ecosystem functions during the transformation process of dead organic substance energy for the new biomass composition. Soil-ecological risks estimation is

  10. Cellular and molecular research to reduce uncertainties in estimates of health effects from low-level radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Elkind, M.M.; Bedford, J.; Benjamin, S.A.; Waldren, C.A. ); Gotchy, R.L. )

    1990-10-01

    A study was undertaken by five radiation scientists to examine the feasibility of reducing the uncertainties in the estimation of risk due to protracted low doses of ionizing radiation. In addressing the question of feasibility, a review was made by the study group: of the cellular, molecular, and mammalian radiation data that are available; of the way in which altered oncogene properties could be involved in the loss of growth control that culminates in tumorigenesis; and of the progress that had been made in the genetic characterizations of several human and animal neoplasms. On the basis of this analysis, the study group concluded that, at the present time, it is feasible to mount a program of radiation research directed at the mechanism(s) of radiation-induced cancer with special reference to risk of neoplasia due to protracted, low doses of sparsely ionizing radiation. To implement a program of research, a review was made of the methods, techniques, and instruments that would be needed. This review was followed by a survey of the laboratories and institutions where scientific personnel and facilities are known to be available. A research agenda of the principal and broad objectives of the program is also discussed. 489 refs., 21 figs., 14 tabs.

  11. Biodosimetry as a New Paradigm for Determination of Radiation Risks and Risk-Mitigation in Astronauts Exposed to Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, Robert; Cruz, Angela; Bors, Karen

    2004-01-01

    Predicting risk of cancer in astronauts exposed to space radiation is challenging partly because uncertainties of absorption of dose and the processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level degrade the confidence of predicting the expression of cancer. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the macromolecular profiles related to malignant transformation in cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported, This is the demonstration of two dose-responsive field-effects of enhanced protein-expression. In one case, expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) irradiated with cesium-137 gamma-rays is enhanced following exposure of log phase cells to relatively low doses of 30 to 90 cGy. K18 has been reported by a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis. In the second case, expression of connexin 43 (Cx43) is increased in irradiated stationary phase cultures of HMEC, indicating enhanced formation of gap junctions. Gap junctions have been reported to be involved in bystander effects following irradiation. It is a biodosimeter for assessing radiogenic damage. It is suggested further that such biomolecular dosimetry may introduce a new paradigm for assessing cancer risk and risk-mitigation in individuals, a requirement for managing radiation health in astronauts during extended missions in space. This new paradigm is built upon the statistical power provided by the use of functional genomics and proteomics represented in combined gene- and protein-expression assays.

  12. Overall risk estimation for nonreactor nuclear facilities and implementation of safety goals

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, K.S.; Bradley, R.F.

    1993-06-01

    A typical safety analysis report (SAR) contains estimated frequencies.and consequences of various design basis accidents (DBA). However, the results are organized and presented in such a way that they are not conducive for summing up with mathematical rigor to express total or overall risk. This paper describes a mathematical formalism for deriving total risk indicators. The mathematical formalism is based on the complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) or exceedance probability of radioactivity release fraction and individual radiation dose. A simple protocol is presented for establishing exceedance probabilities from the results of DBA analyses typically available from an SAR. The exceedance probability of release fraction can be a useful indicator for gaining insights into the capability of confinement barriers, characteristics of source terms, and scope of the SAR. Fatality risks comparable to the DOE Safety Goals can be derived from the exceedance probability of individual doses. Example case analyses are presented to illustrate the use of the proposed protocol and mathematical formalism. The methodology is finally applied to proposed risk guidelines for individual accident events to show that these guidelines would be within the DOE Safety Goals.

  13. Development of a system to evaluate and communicate radiation risk.

    PubMed

    Wiatrowski, W A; Giles, E R; Cooke, E P

    1996-01-01

    Review of research protocols involving positron emission tomography studies on healthy volunteers focused attention on the radiation exposure disclosure statements contained in the informed consent form. Of particular concern was the observation that breast doses from positron emission tomography studies are greater than breast doses from other research uses of radioisotopes, as well as routine nuclear medicine and radiographic procedures. Disclosure of individual organ doses is not normally provided on informed consent forms. A worksheet was developed to aid research investigators in the determination of effective dose equivalents and organ dose equivalents from all sources of radiation to which a volunteer is exposed. Three standardized risk statements are discussed. The final selection and use of these statements are determined by worksheet calculations of effective dose equivalents and organ dose equivalents. PMID:7499144

  14. Development of a system to evaluate and communicate radiation risk

    SciTech Connect

    Wiatrowski, W.A.; Giles, E.R.; Cooke, E.P. |

    1996-01-01

    Review of research protocols involving positron emission tomography studies on healthy volunteers focused attention on the radiation exposure disclosure statements contained in the informed consent form. Of particular concern was the observation that breast doses from positron emission tomography studies are greater than breast doses from other research uses of radioisotopes, as well as routine nuclear medicine and radiographic procedures. Disclosure of individual organ doses is not normally provided on informed consent forms. A worksheet was developed to aid research investigators in the determination of effective dose equivalents and organ dose equivalents from all sources of radiation to which a volunteer is exposed. Three standardized risk statements are discussed. The final selection and use of these statements are determines by worksheet calculations of effective dose equivalents and organ dose equivalents. 18 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

  15. Radiation exposure and risk assessment for critical female body organs

    SciTech Connect

    Atwell, W.; Weyland, M.D.; Hardy, A.C. NASA, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX )

    1991-07-01

    Space radiation exposure limits for astronauts are based on recommendations of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. These limits now include the age at exposure and sex of the astronaut. A recently-developed computerized anatomical female (CAF) model is discussed in detail. Computer-generated, cross-sectional data are presented to illustrate the completeness of the CAF model. By applying ray-tracing techniques, shield distribution functions have been computed to calculate absorbed dose and dose equivalent values for a variety of critical body organs (e.g., breasts, lungs, thyroid gland, etc.) and mission scenarios. Specific risk assessments, i.e., cancer induction and mortality, are reviewed. 13 refs.

  16. Monte Carlo estimation of radiation doses during paediatric barium meal and cystourethrography examinations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dimitriadis, A.; Gialousis, G.; Makri, T.; Karlatira, M.; Karaiskos, P.; Georgiou, E.; Papaodysseas, S.; Yakoumakis, E.

    2011-01-01

    Organ doses are important quantities in assessing the radiation risk. In the case of children, estimation of this risk is of particular concern due to their significant radiosensitivity and the greater health detriment. The purpose of this study is to estimate the organ doses to paediatric patients undergoing barium meal and micturating cystourethrography examinations by clinical measurements and Monte Carlo simulation. In clinical measurements, dose-area products (DAPs) were assessed during examination of 50 patients undergoing barium meal and 90 patients undergoing cystourethrography examinations, separated equally within three age categories: namely newborn, 1 year and 5 years old. Monte Carlo simulation of photon transport in male and female mathematical phantoms was applied using the MCNP5 code in order to estimate the equivalent organ doses. Regarding the micturating cystourethrography examinations, the organs receiving considerable amounts of radiation doses were the urinary bladder (1.87, 2.43 and 4.7 mSv, the first, second and third value in the parentheses corresponds to neonatal, 1 year old and 5 year old patients, respectively), the large intestines (1.54, 1.8, 3.1 mSv), the small intestines (1.34, 1.56, 2.78 mSv), the stomach (1.46, 1.02, 2.01 mSv) and the gall bladder (1.46, 1.66, 2.18 mSv), depending upon the age of the child. Organs receiving considerable amounts of radiation during barium meal examinations were the stomach (9.81, 9.92, 11.5 mSv), the gall bladder (3.05, 5.74, 7.15 mSv), the rib bones (9.82, 10.1, 11.1 mSv) and the pancreas (5.8, 5.93, 6.65 mSv), depending upon the age of the child. DAPs to organ/effective doses conversion factors were derived for each age and examination in order to be compared with other studies.

  17. Assessment of Radiation Risk by Circulating microRNAs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jufang

    2016-07-01

    Highly energized particles delivered by galactic cosmic rays as well as solar particle events are one of the most severe detrimental factors to the health of crews during long-term space missions. Researches related to the assessment of radiation risk have been carried out with ground-based accelerator facilities all around the world. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) in blood have the advantages of specificity and stability, which could be used as disease biomarkers and potential bio-dosimeters to monitor the radiation risk. Based on this backgroud, circulating miRNAs were isolated from blood after Kunming mice were whole-body exposed to 300MeV/u carbon ion beam which were generated by the Heavy Ion Research Facility in Lanzhou (HIRFL), and the levels of miRNA expression were detected by miRNA PCR array. It was found that more than one hundred of circulating miRNAs were responded to carbon ion irradiation. Among these radiosensitive miRNAs, most of them were closely associated with immune system and hematopoietic system. The miRNA levels changed more than 2-fold were further verified by qRT-PCR analysis following exposure to X rays and iron ion beam. Some miRNAs such as let-7a, miR-34a, miR-223 and miR-150 showed obvious radio-sensitivity and dose-dependent effect, demonstrating that they were potential biomarkers of radiation and could be used as ideal bio-dosimeters. Those findings indicate that with the properties of high radio-sensitivity and time-saving quantification method by standard PCR assay, circulating miRNAs may become potential biomarkers for radiation detection in space exploration.

  18. Childhood CT scans and cancer risk: impact of predisposing factors for cancer on the risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Journy, N; Roué, T; Cardis, E; Le Pointe, H Ducou; Brisse, H; Chateil, J-F; Laurier, D; Bernier, M-O

    2016-03-01

    To investigate the role of cancer predisposing factors (PFs) on the associations between paediatric computed tomography (CT) scan exposures and subsequent risk of central nervous system (CNS) tumours and leukaemia. A cohort of children who underwent a CT scan in 2000-2010 in 23 French radiology departments was linked with the national childhood cancers registry and national vital status registry; information on PFs was retrieved through hospital discharge databases. In children without PF, hazard ratios of 1.07 (95% CI 0.99-1.10) for CNS tumours (15 cases) and 1.16 (95% CI 0.77-1.27) for leukaemia (12 cases) were estimated for each 10 mGy increment in CT x-rays organ doses. These estimates were similar to those obtained in the whole cohort. In children with PFs, no positive dose-risk association was observed, possibly related to earlier non-cancer mortality in this group. Our results suggest a modifying effect of PFs on CT-related cancer risks, but need to be confirmed by longer follow-up and other studies. PMID:26878249

  19. Interactive Decision-Support Tool for Risk-Based Radiation Therapy Plan Comparison for Hodgkin Lymphoma

    SciTech Connect

    Brodin, N. Patrik; Maraldo, Maja V.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Vogelius, Ivan R.; Petersen, Peter M.; Bentzen, Søren M.; Specht, Lena

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: To present a novel tool that allows quantitative estimation and visualization of the risk of various relevant normal tissue endpoints to aid in treatment plan comparison and clinical decision making in radiation therapy (RT) planning for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). Methods and Materials: A decision-support tool for risk-based, individualized treatment plan comparison is presented. The tool displays dose–response relationships, derived from published clinical data, for a number of relevant side effects and thereby provides direct visualization of the trade-off between these endpoints. The Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic reports were applied, complemented with newer data where available. A “relevance score” was assigned to each data source, reflecting how relevant the input data are to current RT for HL. Results: The tool is applied to visualize the local steepness of dose–response curves to drive the reoptimization of a volumetric modulated arc therapy treatment plan for an HL patient with head-and-neck involvement. We also use this decision-support tool to visualize and quantitatively evaluate the trade-off between a 3-dimensional conformal RT plan and a volumetric modulated arc therapy plan for a patient with mediastinal HL. Conclusion: This multiple-endpoint decision-support tool provides quantitative risk estimates to supplement the clinical judgment of the radiation oncologist when comparing different RT options.

  20. Potential risk of using General Estimates System: bicycle safety.

    PubMed

    Kweon, Young-Jun; Lee, Joyoung

    2010-11-01

    Beneficial effects of bicycle helmet use have been reported mostly based on medical or survey data collected from hospitals. This study was to examine the validity of the United States General Estimates System (GES) database familiar to many transportation professionals for a beneficial effect of helmet use in reducing the severity of injury to bicyclists and found potential risk of erroneous conclusions that can be drawn by a narrowly focused study when the GES database is used. Although the focus of the study was on bicycle helmet use, its findings regarding potential risk might be true for any type of traffic safety study using the GES data. A partial proportional odds model reflecting intrinsic ordering of injury severity was mainly used. About 16,000 bicycle-involved traffic crash records occurring in 2003 through 2008 in the United States were extracted from the GES database. Using the 2003-2008 GES data, a beneficial effect of helmet use was found in 2007, yet a detrimental effect in 2004 and no effect in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008, which are contrary to the past findings from medical or hospital survey data. It was speculated that these mixed results might be attributable to a possible lack of representation of the GES data for bicycle-involved traffic crashes, which may be supported by the findings, such as the average helmet use rates at the time of the crashes varying from 12% in 2004 to 38% in 2008. This suggests that the GES data may not be a reliable source for studying narrowly focused issues such as the effect of helmet use. A considerable fluctuation over years in basic statistical values (e.g., average) of variables of interest (e.g., helmet use) may be an indication of a possible lack of representation of the GES data. In such a case, caution should be exercised in interpreting and generalizing analysis results. PMID:20728621

  1. Risk assessment and management of radiofrequency radiation exposure

    SciTech Connect

    Dabala, Dana; Surducan, Emanoil; Surducan, Vasile; Neamtu, Camelia

    2013-11-13

    Radiofrequency radiation (RFR) industry managers, occupational physicians, security department, and other practitioners must be advised on the basic of biophysics and the health effects of RF electromagnetic fields so as to guide the management of exposure. Information on biophysics of RFR and biological/heath effects is derived from standard texts, literature and clinical experiences. Emergency treatment and ongoing care is outlined, with clinical approach integrating the circumstances of exposure and the patient's symptoms. Experimental risk assessment model in RFR chronic exposure is proposed. Planning for assessment and monitoring exposure, ongoing care, safety measures and work protection are outlining the proper management.

  2. Risk assessment and management of radiofrequency radiation exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dabala, Dana; Surducan, Emanoil; Surducan, Vasile; Neamtu, Camelia

    2013-11-01

    Radiofrequency radiation (RFR) industry managers, occupational physicians, security department, and other practitioners must be advised on the basic of biophysics and the health effects of RF electromagnetic fields so as to guide the management of exposure. Information on biophysics of RFR and biological/heath effects is derived from standard texts, literature and clinical experiences. Emergency treatment and ongoing care is outlined, with clinical approach integrating the circumstances of exposure and the patient's symptoms. Experimental risk assessment model in RFR chronic exposure is proposed. Planning for assessment and monitoring exposure, ongoing care, safety measures and work protection are outlining the proper management.

  3. Risky Business: The Science and Art of Radiation Risk Communication in the High Risk Context of Space Travel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elgart, Shona Robin; Shavers, Mark; Huff, Janice; Patel, Zarana; Semones, Edward

    2016-01-01

    Successfully communicating the complex risks associated with radiation exposure is a difficult undertaking; communicating those risks within the high-risk context of space travel is uniquely challenging. Since the potential risks of space radiation exposure are not expected to be realized until much later in life, it is hard to draw comparisons between other spaceflight risks such as hypoxia and microgravity-induced bone loss. Additionally, unlike other spaceflight risks, there is currently no established mechanism to mitigate the risks of incurred radiation exposure such as carcinogenesis. Despite these challenges, it is the duty of the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at NASA's Johnson Space Center to provide astronauts with the appropriate information to effectively convey the risks associated with exposure to the space radiation environment. To this end, astronauts and their flight surgeons are provided with an annual radiation risk report documenting the astronaut's individual radiation exposures from space travel, medical, and internal radiological procedures throughout the astronaut's career. In an effort to improve this communication and education tool, this paper critically reviews the current report style and explores alternative report styles to define best methods to appropriately communicate risk to astronauts, flight surgeons, and management.

  4. The Impact of Perceived Frailty on Surgeons’ Estimates of Surgical Risk

    PubMed Central

    Ferguson, Mark K.; Farnan, Jeanne; Hemmerich, Josh A.; Slawinski, Kris; Acevedo, Julissa; Small, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Background Physicians are only moderately accurate in estimating surgical risk based on clinical vignettes. We assessed the impact of perceived frailty by measuring the influence of a short video of a standardized patient on surgical risk estimates. Methods Thoracic surgeons and cardiothoracic trainees estimated the risk of major complications for lobectomy based on clinical vignettes of varied risk categories (low, average, high). After each vignette, subjects viewed a randomly selected video of a standardized patient exhibiting either vigorous or frail behavior, then re-estimated risk. Subjects were asked to rate 5 vignettes paired with 5 different standardized patients. Results Seventy-one physicians participated. Initial risk estimates varied according to the vignette risk category: low, 15.2 ± 11.2% risk; average, 23.7 ± 16.1%; high, 37.3 ± 18.9%; p<0.001 by ANOVA. Concordant information in vignettes and videos moderately altered estimates (high risk vignette, frail video: 10.6 ± 27.5% increase in estimate, p=0.006; low risk vignette, vigorous video: 14.5 ± 45.0% decrease, p=0.009). Discordant findings influenced risk estimates more substantially (high risk vignette, vigorous video: 21.2 ± 23.5% decrease in second risk estimate, p<0.001; low risk vignette, frail video: 151.9 ± 209.8% increase, p<0.001). Conclusions Surgeons differentiated relative risk of lobectomy based on clinical vignettes. The effect of viewing videos was small when vignettes and videos were concordant; the effect was more substantial when vignettes and videos were discordant. The information will be helpful in training future surgeons in frailty recognition and risk estimation. PMID:24932570

  5. Estimating urban flood risk - uncertainty in design criteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newby, M.; Franks, S. W.; White, C. J.

    2015-06-01

    The design of urban stormwater infrastructure is generally performed assuming that climate is static. For engineering practitioners, stormwater infrastructure is designed using a peak flow method, such as the Rational Method as outlined in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (AR&R) guidelines and estimates of design rainfall intensities. Changes to Australian rainfall intensity design criteria have been made through updated releases of the AR&R77, AR&R87 and the recent 2013 AR&R Intensity Frequency Distributions (IFDs). The primary focus of this study is to compare the three IFD sets from 51 locations Australia wide. Since the release of the AR&R77 IFDs, the duration and number of locations for rainfall data has increased and techniques for data analysis have changed. Updated terminology coinciding with the 2013 IFD release has also resulted in a practical change to the design rainfall. For example, infrastructure that is designed for a 1 : 5 year ARI correlates with an 18.13% AEP, however for practical purposes, hydraulic guidelines have been updated with the more intuitive 20% AEP. The evaluation of design rainfall variation across Australia has indicated that the changes are dependent upon location, recurrence interval and rainfall duration. The changes to design rainfall IFDs are due to the application of differing data analysis techniques, the length and number of data sets and the change in terminology from ARI to AEP. Such changes mean that developed infrastructure has been designed to a range of different design criteria indicating the likely inadequacy of earlier developments to the current estimates of flood risk. In many cases, the under-design of infrastructure is greater than the expected impact of increased rainfall intensity under climate change scenarios.

  6. Radiative energy budget estimates for the 1979 southwest summer monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ackerman, Steven A.; Cox, Stephen K.

    1987-01-01

    A major objective of the summer monsoon experiment (SMONEX) was the determination of the heat sources and sinks associated with the southwest summer monsoon. The radiative component is presented here. The vertically integrated tropospheric radiation energy budget is negative and varies significantly as a function of monsoon activity. The gradient in the latitudinal mean tropospheric cooling reverses between the winter periods and the late spring/early summer periods. The radiative component of the vertical profile of the diabatic heating is derived. These profiles are a strong function of the stage of the monsoon as well as the geographic region. In general, the surface experiences a net gain of radiative energy during the late spring and early summer periods. During the winter periods, areas northward of 25 N display net surface losses, while the remaining areas exhibit net gains.

  7. RADON EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT AND DOSIMETRY APPLIED TO EPIDEMIOLOGY AND RISK ESTIMATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Epidemiological studies of underground miners provide the primary basis for radon risk estimates for indoor exposures as well as mine exposures. A major source of uncertainty in these risk estimates is the uncertainty in radon progeny exposure estimates for the miners. In addit...

  8. Radiation efficacy and biological risk from whole-breast irradiation via intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desantis, David M.

    Radiotherapy is an established modality for women with breast cancer. During the delivery of external beam radiation to the breast, leakage, scattered x-rays from the patient and the linear accelerator also expose healthy tissues and organs outside of the breast, thereby increasing the patient's whole-body dose, which then increases the chance of developing a secondary, radiation-induced cancer. Generally, there are three IntensityModulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) delivery techniques from a conventional linear accelerator; forward planned (FMLC), inverse planned 'sliding window' (DMLC), and inverse planned 'step-and-shoot' (SMLC). The goal of this study was to determine which of these three techniques delivers an optimal dose to the breast with the least chance of causing a fatal, secondary, radiation-induced cancer. A conventional, non-IMRT, 'Wedge' plan also was compared. Computerized Tomography (CT) data sets for both a large and small sized patient were used in this study. With Varian's Eclipse AAA algorithm, the organ doses specified in the revised ICRP 60 publication were used to calculate the whole-body dose. Also, an anthropomorphic phantom was irradiated with thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD) at each organ site for measured doses. The risk coefficient from the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII report of 4.69 x 10-2 deaths per Gy was used to convert whole-body dose to risk of a fatal, secondary, radiation-induced cancer. The FMLC IMRT delivered superior tumor coverage over the 3D conventional plan and the inverse DMLC or SMLC treatment plans delivered clinically equivalent tumor coverage. However, the FMLC plan had the least likelihood of inadvertently causing a fatal, secondary, radiation-induced cancer compared to the inverse DMLC, SMLC, and Wedge plans.

  9. Effects of radiation and lifestyle factors on risks of urothelial carcinoma in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors.

    PubMed

    Grant, E J; Ozasa, K; Preston, D L; Suyama, A; Shimizu, Y; Sakata, R; Sugiyama, H; Pham, T-M; Cologne, J; Yamada, M; De Roos, A J; Kopecky, K J; Porter, M P; Seixas, N; Davis, S

    2012-07-01

    Among the Life Span Study (LSS) of Atomic-bomb survivors, recent estimates showed that unspecified bladder cancer had high radiation sensitivity with a notably high female-to-male excess relative risk (ERR) per radiation dose ratio and were the only sites for which the ERR did not decrease with attained age. These findings, however, did not consider lifestyle factors, which could potentially confound or modify the risk estimates. This study estimated the radiation risks of the most prevalent subtype of urinary tract cancer, urothelial carcinoma, while accounting for smoking, consumption of fruit, vegetables, alcohol and level of education (a surrogate for socioeconomic status). Eligible study subjects included 105,402 (males = 42,890) LSS members who were cancer-free in 1958 and had estimated radiation doses. Members were censored due to loss of follow-up, incident cancer of another type, death, or the end of calendar year 2001. Surveys (by mail or clinical interview) gathered lifestyle data periodically for 1963-1991. There were 63,827 participants in one or more survey. Five hundred seventy-three incident urothelial carcinoma cases occurred, of which 364 occurred after lifestyle information was available. Analyses were performed using Poisson regression methods. The excess relative risk per weighted gray unit (the gamma component plus 10 times the neutron component, Gy(w)) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.43-1.78) but the risks were not dependent upon age at exposure or attained age. Lifestyle factors other than smoking were not associated with urothelial carcinoma risk. Neither the magnitude of the radiation ERR estimate (1.00 compared to 0.96), nor the female-to-male (F:M) ERR/Gy(w) ratio (3.2 compared to 3.4) were greatly changed after accounting for all lifestyle factors. A multiplicative model of gender-specific radiation and smoking effects was the most revealing though there was no evidence of significant departures from either the additive or multiplicative joint

  10. Estimate of the secondary cancer risk from megavoltage CT in tomotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Dong Wook; Chung, Weon Kuu; Ahn, Sung Hwan; Yoon, Myonggeun

    2013-04-01

    We have assessed the radiation-induced excess cancer risk to organs from megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT). MVCT was performed in coarse, normal and fine scanning modes. Using a glass dosimeter, we measured the primary and the secondary doses inside a homemade phantom and at various distances from the imaging center. The organ-specific excess absolute risk (EAR) for cancer induction was estimated using an organ-equivalent dose (OED) based on the measured imaging doses. The average primary doses inside the phantom for the coarse, normal and fine scanning modes were 0.78, 1.15 and 2.15 cGy, respectively. The average secondary dose per scan, measured 20 to 60 cm from the imaging center, ranged from 0.044 to 0.008 cGy. The EAR for major organs indicated that when 30 MVCT scans are performed to position each patient during the course of radiation treatment, organ-specific cancers may develop in as many as 6 per 10,000 persons per year.

  11. Radiation-Induced Rib Fractures After Hypofractionated Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy: Risk Factors and Dose-Volume Relationship

    SciTech Connect

    Asai, Kaori; Shioyama, Yoshiyuki; Nakamura, Katsumasa; Sasaki, Tomonari; Ohga, Saiji; Nonoshita, Takeshi; Yoshitake, Tadamasa; Ohnishi, Kayoko; Terashima, Kotaro; Matsumoto, Keiji; Hirata, Hideki; Honda, Hiroshi

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to clarify the incidence, the clinical risk factors, and the dose-volume relationship of radiation-induced rib fracture (RIRF) after hypofractionated stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods and Materials: One hundred sixteen patients treated with SBRT for primary or metastatic lung cancer at our institution, with at least 6 months of follow-up and no previous overlapping radiation exposure, were included in this study. To determine the clinical risk factors associated with RIRF, correlations between the incidence of RIRF and the variables, including age, sex, diagnosis, gross tumor volume diameter, rib-tumor distance, and use of steroid administration, were analyzed. Dose-volume histogram analysis was also conducted. Regarding the maximum dose, V10, V20, V30, and V40 of the rib, and the incidences of RIRF were compared between the two groups divided by the cutoff value determined by the receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: One hundred sixteen patients and 374 ribs met the inclusion criteria. Among the 116 patients, 28 patients (46 ribs) experienced RIRF. The estimated incidence of rib fracture was 37.7% at 3 years. Limited distance from the rib to the tumor (<2.0 cm) was the only significant risk factor for RIRF (p = 0.0001). Among the dosimetric parameters used for receiver operating characteristic analysis, the maximum dose showed the highest area under the curve. The 3-year estimated risk of RIRF and the determined cutoff value were 45.8% vs. 1.4% (maximum dose, {>=}42.4 Gy or less), 51.6% vs. 2.0% (V40, {>=}0.29 cm{sup 3} or less), 45.8% vs. 2.2% (V30, {>=}1.35 cm{sup 3} or less), 42.0% vs. 8.5% (V20, {>=}3.62 cm{sup 3} or less), or 25.9% vs. 10.5% (V10, {>=}5.03 cm{sup 3} or less). Conclusions: The incidence of RIRF after hypofractionated SBRT is relatively high. The maximum dose and high-dose volume are strongly correlated with RIRF.

  12. Radio frequency radiation risk: A study focused on wireless telephones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irwin, William Edward, III

    The focus of this dissertation is radio frequency radiation (RFR) from wireless telephony handsets and the risk assessment conducted for purposes of protecting health from this RFR. In the United States, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) promulgates and enforces occupational and public health exposure limits for wireless telephone handsets. The FCC has relied upon the risk assessment of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Standards Coordinating Committee 28 (SCC-28) in crafting these exposure limits. Using qualitative research methods of policy analysis, the procedures used by SCC-28, the people who make up SCC-28, and the results of SCC-28 efforts were evaluated. The objective was to determine if SCC-28 adequately evaluated wireless RFR health effects research to substantiate its partial body exposure limit recommendations, those pertinent to exposure of the human head from wireless telephone handsets. This is critical because the SCC-28 recommendations have been the primary basis for FCC regulations on exposures from the wireless telephone handsets. The research methods employed were a systematic evaluation of published and unpublished comments and interview. The systematic evaluation of published and unpublished comments consisted of an analysis of records of activity in the minutes of SCC-28 as well as the collective perspectives of other knowledgeable individuals and groups in publications. This evaluation also included an in-depth literature review of hundreds of primary research publications designed to assess the nature and quality of wireless RFR health effects data available to risk assessors. Interview was accomplished using a detailed questionnaire. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) criteria for risk assessment in the federal government were used to as the framework with which to assess the functions of SCC-28. To assess the recommendations of the results of SCC-28 risk assessment, the RFR health effects research

  13. Estimating radiation dose to organs of patients undergoing conventional and novel multidetector CT exams using Monte Carlo simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angel, Erin

    Advances in Computed Tomography (CT) technology have led to an increase in the modality's diagnostic capabilities and therefore its utilization, which has in turn led to an increase in radiation exposure to the patient population. As a result, CT imaging currently constitutes approximately half of the collective exposure to ionizing radiation from medical procedures. In order to understand the radiation risk, it is necessary to estimate the radiation doses absorbed by patients undergoing CT imaging. The most widely accepted risk models are based on radiosensitive organ dose as opposed to whole body dose. In this research, radiosensitive organ dose was estimated using Monte Carlo based simulations incorporating detailed multidetector CT (MDCT) scanner models, specific scan protocols, and using patient models based on accurate patient anatomy and representing a range of patient sizes. Organ dose estimates were estimated for clinical MDCT exam protocols which pose a specific concern for radiosensitive organs or regions. These dose estimates include estimation of fetal dose for pregnant patients undergoing abdomen pelvis CT exams or undergoing exams to diagnose pulmonary embolism and venous thromboembolism. Breast and lung dose were estimated for patients undergoing coronary CTA imaging, conventional fixed tube current chest CT, and conventional tube current modulated (TCM) chest CT exams. The correlation of organ dose with patient size was quantified for pregnant patients undergoing abdomen/pelvis exams and for all breast and lung dose estimates presented. Novel dose reduction techniques were developed that incorporate organ location and are specifically designed to reduce close to radiosensitive organs during CT acquisition. A generalizable model was created for simulating conventional and novel attenuation-based TCM algorithms which can be used in simulations estimating organ dose for any patient model. The generalizable model is a significant contribution of this

  14. Estimation of solar radiation by using modified Heliosat-II method and COMS-MI imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Wonseok; Song, Ahram; Kim, Yongil

    2015-10-01

    Estimation of solar radiation is very important basic research which can be used in solar energy resources estimation, prediction of crop yields, resource-related decision-making and so on. Accordingly, recently diverse researches for estimating solar radiation are performing in Korea. Heliosat-II method is one of the widely used model to estimate solar irradiance, and it's accuracy has been demonstrated by many other studies. But Heliosat-II method cannot be applied directly for estimate solar irradiance around Korea. Because Heliosat-II method is optimized for estimating solar radiation of Europe. Basically Heliosat-II method estimate solar radiation by using Meteosat meteorological satellite imagery and statistical data which are taken around Europe. Because these data do not include Korea, Heliosat-II method must be modified for