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Sample records for rates predicts higher

  1. Predicting Higher Education Outcomes and Implications for a Postsecondary Institution Ratings System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walker, Eddie G., II

    2016-01-01

    The accountability of colleges and universities is a high priority for those making policy decisions. The purpose of this study was to determine institutional characteristics predicting retention rates, graduation rates and transfer-out rates using publicly available data from the US Department of Education. Using regression analysis, it was…

  2. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ruderman, Michael A.; Wilson, Deirdra F.; Reid, Savanna

    2015-01-01

    Objective This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Background Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees. Methods Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Results Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05–4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00–2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73–2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45–2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37–2.53). Conclusions Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted. PMID:26492490

  3. Geometrical Sparing Factors for the Rectum and Bladder in the Prediction of Grade 2 and Higher Complications After High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy for Cervical Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S.-W.; Liang, J.-A.; Hung, Y.-C.; Yeh, L.-S.; Chang, W.-C.; Yang, S.-N.; Lin, F.-J.

    2009-12-01

    Purpose: This study aimed to assess the predictive values of geometrical sparing factors for the rectum and bladder in high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDRICB) for Grade 2 and higher late sequelae in patients with cervical cancer. Methods: A total of 392 patients were enrolled in this study. They were treated with external beam radiotherapy to the pelvis, after which HDRICB was performed using Ir-192 remote after-loading at 1-week intervals for three or four sessions. The geometrical sparing factor (GSF) was defined as the average of the ratios between the reference doses and the Point A dose. Results: A total of 46 patients (11.7%) had Grade 2 or higher late rectal complications (36 Grade 2, 9 Grade 3, and 1 Grade 4). In all, 32 patients (8.2%) had Grade 2 or higher late bladder complications (14 Grade 2, 16 Grade 3, and 2 Grade 4). Multivariate analysis demonstrated a high risk of rectal sequelae in patients who developed bladder complications (p = 0.0004, hazard ratio 3.54) and had a rectal GSF greater than 0.7 (p = 0.01, hazard ratio 1.99). The high risk factors for bladder complications were development of rectal complications (p = 0.0004, hazard ratio 3.74), concurrent chemotherapy (p = 0.0001, relative risk 3.94), and a bladder GSF greater than 0.9 (p = 0.01, hazard ratio, 2.53). Conclusion: This study demonstrates the predictive value of GSFs in HDRICB for cervical cancer. Patients with rectal GSFs greater than 0.7 or bladder GSFs greater than 0.9 are at risk for Grade 2 and higher late sequelae.

  4. Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates

    PubMed Central

    Arbuckle, Kevin; Speed, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    The “escape-and-radiate” hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians. PMID:26483488

  5. Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates.

    PubMed

    Arbuckle, Kevin; Speed, Michael P

    2015-11-01

    The "escape-and-radiate" hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians. PMID:26483488

  6. Predicting the Divorce Rate: Down?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemper, Theodore D.

    1983-01-01

    Predicted a decline in the divorce rate based on 10 factors including: decline in marriage rate, older age at marriage, mental health improvement, upper limit on employed women, less migration, end of the cultural revolution, exhaustion of latency effect of no-fault divorce, and fear of the consequences of divorce. (JAC)

  7. Magnet Hospitals: Higher Rates of Patient Satisfaction.

    PubMed

    Smith, Sarah A

    2014-06-10

    Patient satisfaction with care is an important indicator of quality of care. As of 2013-2014, 30% of the Value-Based Purchasing score Medicare is using to determine hospital reimbursement is based on patient reports of care. This study determined whether significant relationships exists between Magnet (N = 160), Magnet-in-progress (N = 99), and non-Magnet hospital (N = 1,742) status and the highest ratings on the Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) survey questions related to patient satisfaction with care. This study was a secondary analysis of data collected and compiled from three sources (the American Hospital Association, American Nurses Credentialing Center, and HCAHPS databases). Analysis revealed that Magnet and Magnet-in-progress hospitals have significantly (p < .007) higher scores than non-Magnet hospitals on six of the seven questions regarding patient-reported satisfaction with care. The implications of these results for nursing are discussed. PMID:24915864

  8. Base Rates, Contingencies, and Prediction Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kareev, Yaakov; Fiedler, Klaus; Avrahami, Judith

    2009-01-01

    A skew in the base rate of upcoming events can often provide a better cue for accurate predictions than a contingency between signals and events. The authors study prediction behavior and test people's sensitivity to both base rate and contingency; they also examine people's ability to compare the benefits of both for prediction. They formalize…

  9. Independent Ratings of Institutions of Higher Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russian Education and Society, 2007

    2007-01-01

    The ReitOR Agency has for the first time posted its ratings of colleges and universities in the Volga Federal District of Russia based on criteria of public assessment, having designated institutions in the following priority areas of training: machine building, energy, communications and telecommunications, management and economics, and gas and…

  10. Public Rates of Return on Higher Education Investments, by State

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Courtright, Stephen H.; Fry, Cary G.

    2007-01-01

    Public rates of return on higher education expenditures are calculated by state. Benefits accruing to states from their investments in higher education are measured by differential tax revenues collected from college-educated citizens versus high-school-educated citizens. For most states we find an adequate rate of return on such investments.…

  11. Contraceptives and dysplasia: higher rate for pill choosers.

    PubMed

    Stern, E; Clark, V A; Coffelt, C F

    1970-07-31

    Among women choosing the pill in preference to other contraceptive methods there is a higher rate of the cancer precursor, dysplasia of the cervix, before any possible effect of the pill. PMID:17739011

  12. Predicting discovery rates of genomic features.

    PubMed

    Gravel, Simon

    2014-06-01

    Successful sequencing experiments require judicious sample selection. However, this selection must often be performed on the basis of limited preliminary data. Predicting the statistical properties of the final sample based on preliminary data can be challenging, because numerous uncertain model assumptions may be involved. Here, we ask whether we can predict "omics" variation across many samples by sequencing only a fraction of them. In the infinite-genome limit, we find that a pilot study sequencing 5% of a population is sufficient to predict the number of genetic variants in the entire population within 6% of the correct value, using an estimator agnostic to demography, selection, or population structure. To reach similar accuracy in a finite genome with millions of polymorphisms, the pilot study would require ∼15% of the population. We present computationally efficient jackknife and linear programming methods that exhibit substantially less bias than the state of the art when applied to simulated data and subsampled 1000 Genomes Project data. Extrapolating based on the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Exome Sequencing Project data, we predict that 7.2% of sites in the capture region would be variable in a sample of 50,000 African Americans and 8.8% in a European sample of equal size. Finally, we show how the linear programming method can also predict discovery rates of various genomic features, such as the number of transcription factor binding sites across different cell types. PMID:24637199

  13. Female Patients Require a Higher Propofol Infusion Rate for Sedation.

    PubMed

    Maeda, Shigeru; Tomoyasu, Yumiko; Higuchi, Hitoshi; Honda, Yuka; Ishii-Maruhama, Minako; Miyawaki, Takuya

    2016-01-01

    Sedation may minimize physiologic and behavioral stress responses. In our facility, the infusion rate of propofol is adjusted according to the bispectral index (BIS) in all cases of implant-related surgery; multivariate analysis of retrospective data enabled us to extract independent factors that affect the dose of propofol in sedation that are considered useful indicators for achieving adequate sedation. The study population comprised all patients undergoing implant-related surgery under intravenous sedation in Okayama University Hospital from April 2009 to March 2013. The infusion rate of propofol was adjusted to maintain the BIS value at 70-80. The outcome was the average infusion rate of propofol, and potential predictor variables were age, sex, body weight, treatment time, and amount of midazolam. Independent variables that affected the average infusion rate of propofol were extracted with multiple regression analysis. One hundred twenty-five subjects were enrolled. In the multiple regression analysis, female sex was shown to be significantly associated with a higher average infusion rate of propofol. Females may require a higher infusion rate of propofol than males to achieve adequate sedation while undergoing implant-related surgery. PMID:27269663

  14. Predicting the migration rates of subaqueous dunes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohrig, David; Smith, J. Dungan

    1996-10-01

    In this paper we develop a simple, physically based method for predicting what fraction of sediment moving over the crests of dunes will bypass their lee faces. The bypass fraction is found by calculating a characteristic excursion length for every grain size making up a particular train of dunes. All particles with excursion lengths greater than the downstream span of the lee face of the average dune are assumed not to contribute to dune propagation. Bypass fractions based on distributions of excursion lengths account for the discrepancies between total sediment discharge and dune migration rate measured by Stein [1965] and Guy et al. [1966] in laboratory flumes, as well as by us in the North Loup River of Nebraska. Calculations and these data agree over sediment-transporting conditions associated with the entire stability field for dunes composed of medium sand. The two laboratory studies show that commonly 30-60% of all sand moving over fully developed dunes is not deposited on slip faces. Measurements from the North Loup River reveal that of all sediment moving over the dune crests there, roughly 45% is not being captured on lee faces even though 99% of sediment is transported within 2 cm of the bed. The method developed herein successfully estimates measured values for the bypass fraction from 0 to 80%. Our analysis indicates that the division between grains that are deposited versus those that are bypassing falls within the range of sand sizes making up the suspended load at dune crests.

  15. Supersonic Jet Noise Reductions Predicted With Increased Jet Spreading Rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dahl, Milo D.; Morris, Philip J.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper, predictions are made of noise radiation from single, supersonic, axisymmetric jets. We examine the effects of changes in operating conditions and the effects of simulated enhanced mixing that would increase the spreading rate of jet shear layer on radiated noise levels. The radiated noise in the downstream direction is dominated by mixing noise and, at higher speeds, it is well described by the instability wave noise radiation model. Further analysis with the model shows a relationship between changes in spreading rate due to enhanced mixing and changes in the far field radiated peak noise levels. The calculations predict that enhanced jet spreading results in a reduction of the radiated peak noise level.

  16. Can arsenic occurrence rates in bedrock aquifers be predicted?

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Marvinney, Robert G.; Culbertson, Charles W.; Zheng, Yan

    2012-01-01

    A high percentage (31%) of groundwater samples from bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta area, Maine was found to contain greater than 10 µg L−1 of arsenic. Elevated arsenic concentrations are associated with bedrock geology, and more frequently observed in samples with high pH, low dissolved oxygen, and low nitrate. These associations were quantitatively compared by statistical analysis. Stepwise logistic regression models using bedrock geology and/or water chemistry parameters are developed and tested with external data sets to explore the feasibility of predicting groundwater arsenic occurrence rates (the percentages of arsenic concentrations higher than 10 µg L−1) in bedrock aquifers. Despite the under-prediction of high arsenic occurrence rates, models including groundwater geochemistry parameters predict arsenic occurrence rates better than those with bedrock geology only. Such simple models with very few parameters can be applied to obtain a preliminary arsenic risk assessment in bedrock aquifers at local to intermediate scales at other localities with similar geology. PMID:22260208

  17. Can arsenic occurrence rate in bedrock aquifers be predicted?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Marvinney, Robert G.; Culbertson, Charles W.; Zheng, Yan

    2012-01-01

    A high percentage (31%) of groundwater samples from bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta area, Maine was found to contain greater than 10 μg L–1 of arsenic. Elevated arsenic concentrations are associated with bedrock geology, and more frequently observed in samples with high pH, low dissolved oxygen, and low nitrate. These associations were quantitatively compared by statistical analysis. Stepwise logistic regression models using bedrock geology and/or water chemistry parameters are developed and tested with external data sets to explore the feasibility of predicting groundwater arsenic occurrence rates (the percentages of arsenic concentrations higher than 10 μg L–1) in bedrock aquifers. Despite the under-prediction of high arsenic occurrence rates, models including groundwater geochemistry parameters predict arsenic occurrence rates better than those with bedrock geology only. Such simple models with very few parameters can be applied to obtain a preliminary arsenic risk assessment in bedrock aquifers at local to intermediate scales at other localities with similar geology.

  18. Frequency rates and correlates of contrapower harassment in higher education.

    PubMed

    DeSouza, Eros R

    2011-01-01

    The current study investigated incivility, sexual harassment, and racial-ethnic harassment simultaneously when the targets were faculty members and the perpetrators were students (i.e., academic contrapower harassment; ACH). The sample constituted 257 faculty members (90% were White and 53% were women) from a medium-sized state university in the Midwestern United States. They completed an anonymous survey, including an openended question about a critical ACH incident. The findings revealed that 72% of the total sample had experienced some type of mistreatment from students during the past 2 years. The author hypothesized gender differences in frequency rates for overall ACH, incivility, and sexual harassment; however, there were none. Hence, this hypothesis was not supported. The author also hypothesized that incivility would predict sexual and ethnic harassment. This hypothesis was generally supported. Furthermore, he hypothesized that demographic, work-related, and tolerance for faculty-student romance would predict ACH and its subscales. The findings generally supported this hypothesis, with somewhat different predictors by gender. He also hypothesized that harassed faculty, especially women, would experience worse job-related outcomes than never harassed faculty. Neither gender nor the interaction was significant, but the main effect for harassment was, with harassed faculty members experiencing worse job-related outcomes than nonharassed faculty members. Thus this hypothesis was partially supported. Practical implications are discussed. PMID:20448231

  19. Using Enrollment Data to Predict Retention Rate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bingham, Melissa A.; Solverson, Natalie Walleser

    2016-01-01

    First- to second-year retention rates are one metric reported by colleges and universities to convey institutional success to a variety of external constituents. But how much of a retention rate is institutional inputs, and how much can be understood by examining student inputs? The authors utilize multi-year, multi-institutional data to examine…

  20. High-Precision Nucleation Rate Measurements for Higher Melting Metals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bokeloh, Joachim; Wilde, Gerhard

    2014-08-01

    Nucleation of a crystal in undercooled melts of higher melting face-centered-cubic-metals has often been studied in the past. However, the data available were not of sufficient accuracy and only covered nucleation rates in too small of a range to allow precise conclusions concerning the nature of the underlying process as well as concerning important parameters such as the solid-liquid interface free energy that can in principle be deducted from such analyses. One way to circumvent ambiguities and analyze nucleation kinetics under well-defined conditions experimentally is given by performing statistically significant numbers of repeated single droplet experiments. Application of proper statistics analyses yields nucleation rates that are independent of a specific nucleation model. The first studies that were conducted in accordance with this approach on pure model materials revealed that the approach is valid. The results are comparable to those obtained by classic nucleation theory applied to experimental data, and it was shown that one might need to rethink the common assumption that heterogeneous nucleation is almost always responsible for solidification initiation. The current results also show that often-used models for the solid-liquid interface free energy might lead to overestimated values.

  1. Reduction Rates for Higher Americium Oxidation States in Nitric Acid

    SciTech Connect

    Grimes, Travis Shane; Mincher, Bruce Jay; Schmitt, Nicholas C

    2015-09-30

    The stability of hexavalent americium was measured using multiple americium concentrations and nitric acid concentrations after contact with the strong oxidant sodium bismuthate. Contrary to our hypotheses Am(VI) was not reduced faster at higher americium concentrations, and the reduction was only zero-order at short time scales. Attempts to model the reduction kinetics using zero order kinetic models showed Am(VI) reduction in nitric acid is more complex than the autoreduction processes reported by others in perchloric acid. The classical zero-order reduction of Am(VI) was found here only for short times on the order of a few hours. We did show that the rate of Am(V) production was less than the rate of Am(VI) reduction, indicating that some Am(VI) undergoes two electron-reduction to Am(IV). We also monitored the Am(VI) reduction in contact with the organic diluent dodecane. A direct comparison of these results with those in the absence of the organic diluent showed the reduction rates for Am(VI) were not statistically different for both systems. Additional americium oxidations conducted in the presence of Ce(IV)/Ce(III) ions showed that Am(VI) is reduced without the typical growth of Am(V) observed in the systems sans Ce ion. This was an interesting result which suggests a potential new reduction/oxidation pathway for Am in the presence of Ce; however, these results were very preliminary, and will require additional experiments to understand the mechanism by which this occurs. Overall, these studies have shown that hexavalent americium is fundamentally stable enough in nitric acid to run a separations process. However, the complicated nature of the reduction pathways based on the system components is far from being rigorously understood.

  2. Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan.

    PubMed

    Burr, Devon M; Bridges, Nathan T; Marshall, John R; Smith, James K; White, Bruce R; Emery, Joshua P

    2015-01-01

    Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required. PMID:25487154

  3. Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burr, Devon M.; Bridges, Nathan T.; Marshall, John R.; Smith, James K.; White, Bruce R.; Emery, Joshua P.

    2015-01-01

    Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required.

  4. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; et al

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of chargedmore » peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.« less

  5. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; Rose, Kristie L.; Tabb, David L.

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of charged peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.

  6. Theophylline: constant-rate infusion predictions.

    PubMed

    Mesquita, C A; Sahebjami, H; Imhoff, T; Thomas, J P; Myre, S A

    1984-01-01

    This study was undertaken to evaluate a method of prospectively estimating appropriate aminophylline infusion rates in acutely ill, hospitalized patients with bronchospasm. Steady-state serum theophylline concentrations (Css), clearances (Cl), and half-lives (t1/2) were estimated by the Chiou method using serum concetrantions obtained 1 and 6 h after the start of a constant-rate intravenous aminophylline infusion in 10 male patients averaging 57 years of age. Using an enzyme-multiplied immunoassay (EMIT) system for theophylline analysis, pharmacokinetic estimations were excellent for Css (r = 0.9103, p less than 0.01) and Cl (r = 0.9750, p less than 0.01). The mean estimation errors were 9.4% (range 0.8-21.5) for Css and 12.3% (range 1.3-28.0) for Cl. There was no correlation between patient age and Cl. This method is useful for rapidly individualizing aminophylline therapy in patients with acute bronchospasm. PMID:6740734

  7. Neocortex size predicts deception rate in primates.

    PubMed Central

    Byrne, Richard W.; Corp, Nadia

    2004-01-01

    Human brain organization is built upon a more ancient adaptation, the large brain of simian primates: on average, monkeys and apes have brains twice as large as expected for mammals of their size, principally as a result of neocortical enlargement. Testing the adaptive benefit of this evolutionary specialization depends on finding an association between brain size and function in primates. However, most cognitive capacities have been assessed in only a restricted range of species under laboratory conditions. Deception of conspecifics in social circumstances is an exception, because a corpus of field data is available that encompasses all major lines of the primate radiation. We show that the use of deception within the primates is well predicted by the neocortical volume, when observer effort is controlled for; by contrast, neither the size of the rest of the brain nor the group size exert significant effects. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that neocortical expansion has been driven by social challenges among the primates. Complex social manipulations such as deception are thought to be based upon rapid learning and extensive social knowledge; thus, learning in social contexts may be constrained by neocortical size. PMID:15306289

  8. PREDICTING EVAPORATION RATES AND TIMES FOR SPILLS OF CHEMICAL MIXTURES

    EPA Science Inventory


    Spreadsheet and short-cut methods have been developed for predicting evaporation rates and evaporation times for spills (and constrained baths) of chemical mixtures. Steady-state and time-varying predictions of evaporation rates can be made for six-component mixtures, includ...

  9. Predictions of cell damage rates for Lifesat missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Atwell, William; Hardy, Alva C.; Golightly, Michael J.; Wilson, John W.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Shinn, Judy; Nealy, John E.; Katz, Robert

    1990-01-01

    The track model of Katz is used to make predictions of cell damage rates for possible Lifesat experiments. Contributions from trapped protons and electrons and galactic cosmic rays are considered for several orbits. Damage rates for survival and transformation of C3HT10-1/2 cells are predicted for various spacecraft shields.

  10. Visible light communication using mobile-phone camera with data rate higher than frame rate.

    PubMed

    Chow, Chi-Wai; Chen, Chung-Yen; Chen, Shih-Hao

    2015-10-01

    Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (CMOS) image sensors are widely used in mobile-phone and cameras. Hence, it is attractive if these image sensors can be used as the visible light communication (VLC) receivers (Rxs). However, using these CMOS image sensors are challenging. In this work, we propose and demonstrate a VLC link using mobile-phone camera with data rate higher than frame rate of the CMOS image sensor. We first discuss and analyze the features of using CMOS image sensor as VLC Rx, including the rolling shutter effect, overlapping of exposure time of each row of pixels, frame-to-frame processing time gap, and also the image sensor "blooming" effect. Then, we describe the procedure of synchronization and demodulation. This includes file format conversion, grayscale conversion, column matrix selection avoiding blooming, polynomial fitting for threshold location. Finally, the evaluation of bit-error-rate (BER) is performed satisfying the forward error correction (FEC) limit. PMID:26480122

  11. 'Thermal taste' predicts higher responsiveness to chemical taste and flavor.

    PubMed

    Green, Barry G; George, Pravin

    2004-09-01

    Individual differences in taste perception have been explained in part by variations in peripheral innervation associated with the genetic ability to taste the bitter substances PTC and PROP. In the present study we report evidence of another source of individual differences that is independent of taste stimulus, taste quality, or gustatory nerve. Individuals who perceived taste from thermal stimulation alone (thermal taste) gave significantly higher taste ratings to chemical stimuli--often by a factor of >2:1--than did individuals who perceived no taste from thermal stimulation. This was true for all taste stimuli tested (sucrose, saccharin, sodium chloride, citric acid, quinine sulfate, MSG and PROP), for all three gustatory areas of the mouth (anterior tongue, posterior tongue and soft palate) and for whole-mouth stimulation. Moreover, the same individuals reported stronger sensations from the olfactory stimulus vanillin, particularly when it was sensed retronasally. The generality of the thermal-taster advantage and its extension to an olfactory stimulus suggests that it arises from individual differences in CNS processes that are involved in perception of both taste and flavor. PMID:15337686

  12. Comparison of CALPUFF and ISCST3 models for predicting downwind odor and source emission rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lingjuan; Parker, David B.; Parnell, Calvin B.; Lacey, Ronald E.; Shaw, Bryan W.

    CALPUFF model and ISCST3 Gaussian dispersion models were evaluated for predicting downwind odor concentrations and back-calculating area source odor emission rates. The comparison between the predicted and field-sampled downwind concentrations indicates that the CALPUFF model could fairly well predict average downwind odor concentrations. However, ISCST3 tended to under predict downwind odor concentrations as compared to the measured concentrations. Both the CALPUFF and ISCST3 models failed to predict peak odor concentrations using the constant average emission rate. Odor emission rates obtained by back-calculating fluxes using CALPUFF and ISC models with the same field measurements of downwind odor concentrations are significantly different. It indicates that back-calculated emission rates are model specific. The modeled emission rates tended to be higher than flux chamber source sampling results. The flux chamber protocol may under-estimate odor emission rates.

  13. Urate predicts rate of clinical decline in Parkinson disease

    PubMed Central

    Ascherio, Alberto; LeWitt, Peter A.; Xu, Kui; Eberly, Shirley; Watts, Arthur; Matson, Wayne R.; Marras, Connie; Kieburtz, Karl; Rudolph, Alice; Bogdanov, Mikhail B.; Schwid, Steven R.; Tennis, Marsha; Tanner, Caroline M.; Beal, M. Flint; Lang, Anthony E.; Oakes, David; Fahn, Stanley; Shoulson, Ira; Schwarzschild, Michael A.

    2009-01-01

    Context The risk of Parkinson disease (PD) and its rate of progression may decline with increasing blood urate, a major antioxidant. Objective To determine whether serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of urate predict clinical progression in patients with PD. Design, Setting, and Participants 800 subjects with early PD enrolled in the DATATOP trial. Pre-treatment urate was measured in serum for 774 subjects and in CSF for 713. Main Outcome Measures Treatment-, age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for clinical disability requiring levodopa therapy, the pre-specified primary endpoint. Results The HR of progressing to endpoint decreased with increasing serum urate (HR for 1 standard deviation increase = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.73 to 0.93). In analyses stratified by α-tocopherol treatment (2,000 IU/day), a decrease in the HR for the primary endpoint was seen only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol (HR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.89, versus those treated HR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.75 to 1.08). Results were similar for the rate of change in the United Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). CSF urate was also inversely related to both the primary endpoint (HR for highest versus lowest quintile = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.54 to 0.96) and to the rate of change in UPDRS. As with serum urate, these associations were present only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol. Conclusion Higher serum and CSF urate at baseline were associated with slower rates of clinical decline. The findings strengthen the link between urate and PD and the rationale for considering CNS urate elevation as a potential strategy to slow PD progression. PMID:19822770

  14. Predicting the extent of metabolism using in vitro permeability rate measurements and in silico permeability rate predictions

    PubMed Central

    Hosey, Chelsea M; Benet, Leslie Z

    2015-01-01

    The Biopharmaceutics Drug Disposition Classification System (BDDCS) can be utilized to predict drug disposition, including interactions with other drugs and transporter or metabolizing enzyme effects based on the extent of metabolism and solubility of a drug. However, defining the extent of metabolism relies upon clinical data. Drugs exhibiting high passive intestinal permeability rates are extensively metabolized. Therefore, we aimed to determine if in vitro measures of permeability rate or in silico permeability rate predictions could predict the extent of metabolism, to determine a reference compound representing the permeability rate above which compounds would be expected to be extensively metabolized, and to predict the major route of elimination of compounds in a two-tier approach utilizing permeability rate and a previously published model predicting the major route of elimination of parent drug. Twenty-two in vitro permeability rate measurement data sets in Caco-2 and MDCK cell lines and PAMPA were collected from the literature, while in silico permeability rate predictions were calculated using ADMET Predictor™ or VolSurf+. The potential for permeability rate to differentiate between extensively and poorly metabolized compounds was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curves. Compounds that yielded the highest sensitivity-specificity average were selected as permeability rate reference standards. The major route of elimination of poorly permeable drugs was predicted by our previously published model and the accuracies and predictive values were calculated. The areas under the receiver operating curves were >0.90 for in vitro measures of permeability rate and >0.80 for the VolSurf+ model of permeability rate, indicating they were able to predict the extent of metabolism of compounds. Labetalol and zidovudine predicted greater than 80% of extensively metabolized drugs correctly and greater than 80% of poorly metabolized drugs correctly in Caco

  15. Do Geographic Regions with Higher Suicide Rates Also Have Higher Rates of Nonfatal Intentional Self-Harm?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Claassen, Cynthia A.; Carmody, Thomas; Bossarte, Robert; Trivedi, Madhukar H.; Elliott, Stephen; Currier, Glenn W.

    2008-01-01

    Fatal and nonfatal intentional self-harm events in eight U.S. states were compared using emergency department, hospital, and vital statistics data. Nonfatal event rates increased by an estimated 24.20% over 6 years. Case fatality ratios varied widely, but two northeastern states' total event rates (fatal plus nonfatal) were very high (New…

  16. Mass gathering medicine: event factors predicting patient presentation rates.

    PubMed

    Locoh-Donou, Samuel; Yan, Guofen; Berry, Thomas; O'Connor, Robert; Sochor, Mark; Charlton, Nathan; Brady, William

    2016-08-01

    This study was conducted to identify the event characteristics of mass gatherings that predict patient presentation rates held in a southeastern US university community. We conducted a retrospective review of all event-based emergency medical services (EMS) records from mass gathering patient presentations over an approximate 23 month period, from October 24, 2009 to August 27, 2011. All patrons seen by EMS were included. Event characteristics included: crowd size, venue percentage filled seating, venue location (inside/outside), venue boundaries (bounded/unbounded), presence of free water (i.e., without cost), presence of alcohol, average heat index, presence of climate control (i.e., air conditioning), and event category (football, concerts, public exhibitions, non-football athletic events). We identified 79 mass gathering events, for a total of 670 patient presentations. The cumulative patron attendance was 917,307 persons. The patient presentation rate (PPR) for each event was calculated as the number of patient presentations per 10,000 patrons in attendance. Overdispersed Poisson regression was used to relate this rate to the event characteristics while controlling for crowd size. In univariate analyses, increased rates of patient presentations were strongly associated with outside venues [rate ratio (RR) = 3.002, p < 0.001], unbounded venues (RR = 2.839, p = 0.001), absence of free water (RR = 1.708, p = 0.036), absence of climate control (RR = 3.028, p < 0.001), and a higher heat index (RR = 1.211 per 10-unit heat index increase, p = 0.003). The presence of alcohol was not significantly associated with the PPR. Football events had the highest PPR, followed sequentially by public exhibitions, concerts, and non-football athletic events. In multivariate models, the strong predictors from the univariate analyses retained their predictive significance for the PPR, together with heat index and percent seating. In the setting of mass event

  17. Emotional Competence and Drop-Out Rates in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kingston, Emma

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to compare the emotional competence of first year undergraduates enrolled on a high or low drop-out rate (HDR and LDR, respectively) course, at a newly established university within the UK. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed methods approach using both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods was…

  18. Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors

    PubMed Central

    Niessen, A. Susan M.; Meijer, Rob R.; Tendeiro, Jorge N.

    2016-01-01

    We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance. PMID:27073859

  19. Towards a quantitative prediction of the blob detection rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuchert, G.; Carralero, D.; Manz, P.; Stroth, U.; Wolfrum, E.; ASDEX Upgrade Team

    2016-05-01

    To estimate the particle and energy flux to the plasma facing components of a future fusion power plant, the transport carried by filaments of increased pressure, called blobs, is of critical importance. To understand this transport the rate of the filaments has to be known. The novel approach presented here allows the prediction of both the blob generation and detection rates based on background plasma parameters only. The prediction is in a good overall agreement with recent experiments in ASDEX Upgrade.

  20. Predictions and observations of SEU rates in space

    SciTech Connect

    Petersen, E.L.

    1997-12-01

    This paper summarizes the available data on the observation and prediction of SEU rates in space. It considers three questions: (1) How good can a prediction be? (2) How bad can a prediction be? (3) How does the quality of the prediction depend on the type of orbit? The paper considers one hundred and twenty-six reports of predicted and observed rates. These include updated predictions for the CRRES devices. The analysis then excludes solar particle events, single event burnout, cases with poor statistics, and cases that are essentially duplicates; leaving 77 comparisons. The heavy ion predictions based on the CREME environments and the proton predictions based on the AP8 environments are both very successful for their basic environments, but are less accurate for low earth orbits (LEO). The quality of the results depends on the use of the proper shielding around the part. The results appear consistent with suggested modifications in these environments based on recent space measurements. The methods that are used for upset rate predictions appear to be adequate for the current generation of devices.

  1. Method for predicting photocatalytic oxidation rates of organic compounds.

    PubMed

    Sattler, Melanie L; Liljestrand, Howard M

    2003-01-01

    In designing a photocatalytic oxidation (PCO) system for a given air pollution source, destruction rates for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are required. The objective of this research was to develop a systematic method of predicting PCO rate constants by correlating rate constants with physical-chemical characteristics of compounds. Accordingly, reaction rate constants were determined for destruction of volatile organics over a titanium dioxide (TiO2) catalyst in a continuous mixed-batch reactor. It was found that PCO rate constants for alkanes and alkenes vary linearly with gas-phase ionization potential (IP) and with gas-phase hydroxyl radical reaction rate constant. The correlations allow rates of destruction of compounds not tested in this research to be predicted based on physical-chemical characteristics. PMID:12568248

  2. Compressive behaviour of dam concrete at higher strain rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caverzan, A.; Peroni, M.; Solomos, G.

    2016-05-01

    The mechanical behaviour of concrete when subjected to impact or blast has still many aspects requiring further study. Dam concrete is characterized by large coarse aggregates, hence large specimen sizes are needed in order to study a representative volume of the material. Exploiting an innovative equipment, based on Hopkinson bar techniques, the dynamic behaviour of concrete of 64 mm maximum aggregate size has been investigated. Direct dynamic compression tests have been performed on medium and large size cylindrical samples. Full stress-strain curves have been obtained, which have allowed the estimation of fracturing energies and of the relevant dynamic increase factor. The experimental campaign has also included a reference standard concrete in order to highlight the peculiarity of the dam concrete at high strain rates and to validate the transition of this type of testing to very large specimens.

  3. Using Classification Trees to Predict Alumni Giving for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weerts, David J.; Ronca, Justin M.

    2009-01-01

    As the relative level of public support for higher education declines, colleges and universities aim to maximize alumni-giving to keep their programs competitive. Anchored in a utility maximization framework, this study employs the classification and regression tree methodology to examine characteristics of alumni donors and non-donors at a…

  4. Expensive Brains: “Brainy” Rodents have Higher Metabolic Rate

    PubMed Central

    Sobrero, Raúl; May-Collado, Laura J.; Agnarsson, Ingi; Hernández, Cristián E.

    2011-01-01

    Brains are the centers of the nervous system of animals, controlling the organ systems of the body and coordinating responses to changes in the ecological and social environment. The evolution of traits that correlate with cognitive ability, such as relative brain size is thus of broad interest. Brain mass relative to body mass (BM) varies among mammals, and diverse factors have been proposed to explain this variation. A recent study provided evidence that energetics play an important role in brain evolution (Isler and van Schaik, 2006). Using composite phylogenies and data drawn from multiple sources, these authors showed that basal metabolic rate (BMR) correlates with brain mass across mammals. However, no such relationship was found within rodents. Here we re-examined the relationship between BMR and brain mass within Rodentia using a novel species-level phylogeny. Our results are sensitive to parameter evaluation; in particular how species mass is estimated. We detect no pattern when applying an approach used by previous studies, where each species BM is represented by two different numbers, one being the individual that happened to be used for BMR estimates of that species. However, this approach may compromise the analysis. When using a single value of BM for each species, whether representing a single individual, or available species mean, our findings provide evidence that brain mass (independent of BM) and BMR are correlated. These findings are thus consistent with the hypothesis that large brains evolve when the payoff for increased brain mass is greater than the energetic cost they incur. PMID:21811456

  5. Predicting perceptual learning from higher-order cortical processing.

    PubMed

    Wang, Fang; Huang, Jing; Lv, Yaping; Ma, Xiaoli; Yang, Bin; Wang, Encong; Du, Boqi; Li, Wu; Song, Yan

    2016-01-01

    Visual perceptual learning has been shown to be highly specific to the retinotopic location and attributes of the trained stimulus. Recent psychophysical studies suggest that these specificities, which have been associated with early retinotopic visual cortex, may in fact not be inherent in perceptual learning and could be related to higher-order brain functions. Here we provide direct electrophysiological evidence in support of this proposition. In a series of event-related potential (ERP) experiments, we recorded high-density electroencephalography (EEG) from human adults over the course of learning in a texture discrimination task (TDT). The results consistently showed that the earliest C1 component (68-84ms), known to reflect V1 activity driven by feedforward inputs, was not modulated by learning regardless of whether the behavioral improvement is location specific or not. In contrast, two later posterior ERP components (posterior P1 and P160-350) over the occipital cortex and one anterior ERP component (anterior P160-350) over the prefrontal cortex were progressively modified day by day. Moreover, the change of the anterior component was closely correlated with improved behavioral performance on a daily basis. Consistent with recent psychophysical and imaging observations, our results indicate that perceptual learning can mainly involve changes in higher-level visual cortex as well as in the neural networks responsible for cognitive functions such as attention and decision making. PMID:26391126

  6. Why Are Child Poverty Rates Higher in Britain than in Germany? A Longitudinal Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jenkins, Stephen P.; Schluter, Christian

    2003-01-01

    We analyze why child poverty rates were much higher in Britain than in Western Germany during the 1990s, using a framework focusing on poverty transition rates. Child poverty exit rates were significantly lower, and poverty entry rates significantly higher, in Britain. We decompose these cross-national differences into differences in the…

  7. Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

    PubMed

    Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

  8. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    PubMed Central

    Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

  9. Prediction of mortality rates in the presence of missing values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2015-12-01

    A time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied in the past literature on the United States (US) mortality data from the years 1933 to 2000 to forecast the future age-specific mortality rates of the years 2001 to 2010. In this paper, we show that the method based on multivariate power-normal distribution can still be used for an incomplete US mortality dataset that contains some missing values. The prediction intervals based on this incomplete training data are found to still have good ability of covering the observed future mortality rates although the interval lengths may become wider for long-range prediction.

  10. DSMC predictions of non-equilibrium reaction rates.

    SciTech Connect

    Gallis, Michail A.; Bond, Ryan Bomar; Torczynski, John Robert

    2010-04-01

    A set of Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) chemical-reaction models recently proposed by Bird and based solely on the collision energy and the vibrational energy levels of the species involved is applied to calculate nonequilibrium chemical-reaction rates for atmospheric reactions in hypersonic flows. The DSMC non-equilibrium model predictions are in good agreement with theoretical models and experimental measurements. The observed agreement provides strong evidence that modeling chemical reactions using only the collision energy and the vibrational energy levels provides an accurate method for predicting non-equilibrium chemical-reaction rates.

  11. From minutes to years: predicting organotrifluoroborate solvolysis rates.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhibo; Chao, Daniel; Li, Ying; Ting, Richard; Oh, Jihyoon; Perrin, David M

    2015-03-01

    Organotrifluoroborates solvolyze in water at rates that vary over five orders of magnitude. The negative logarithm of the solvolytic rate constant, pk(B-F), correlates exceptionally well with the pKa of the analogous carboxylic acid (R(2) = 0.984). This unforeseen correlation may be of predictive value for several applications including Suzuki-Miyaura cross-coupling reactions and the design of (18)F-organotrifluoroborate radioprosthetic groups. PMID:25639468

  12. Prediction of Rate Constants for Catalytic Reactions with Chemical Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Catlow, C Richard A

    2016-08-01

    Ex machina: A computational method for predicting rate constants for reactions within microporous zeolite catalysts with chemical accuracy has recently been reported. A key feature of this method is a stepwise QM/MM approach that allows accuracy to be achieved while using realistic models with accessible computer resources. PMID:27329206

  13. Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2015-10-01

    Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

  14. Prediction Accuracy of Error Rates for MPTB Space Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buchner, S. P.; Campbell, A. B.; Davis, D.; McMorrow, D.; Petersen, E. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Ritter, J. C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper addresses the accuracy of radiation-induced upset-rate predictions in space using the results of ground-based measurements together with standard environmental and device models. The study is focused on two part types - 16 Mb NEC DRAM's (UPD4216) and 1 Kb SRAM's (AMD93L422) - both of which are currently in space on board the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed (MPTB). To date, ground-based measurements of proton-induced single event upset (SEM cross sections as a function of energy have been obtained and combined with models of the proton environment to predict proton-induced error rates in space. The role played by uncertainties in the environmental models will be determined by comparing the modeled radiation environment with the actual environment measured aboard MPTB. Heavy-ion induced upsets have also been obtained from MPTB and will be compared with the "predicted" error rate following ground testing that will be done in the near future. These results should help identify sources of uncertainty in predictions of SEU rates in space.

  15. What Predicts Method Effects in Child Behavior Ratings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Low, Justin A.; Keith, Timothy Z.; Jensen, Megan

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to determine whether child, parent, and teacher characteristics such as sex, socioeconomic status (SES), parental depressive symptoms, the number of years of teaching experience, number of children in the classroom, and teachers' disciplinary self-efficacy predict deviations from maternal ratings in a…

  16. Predicting binary merger event rates for advanced LIGO/Virgo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holz, Daniel; Belczynski, Chris; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Bulik, Tomek; LIGO Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We discuss estimates of the rates of mergers of binary systems composed of neutron stars and/or stellar mass black holes. We use the StarTrack population synthesis code, and make predictions for the detection rate of compact binary coalescences with the advanced LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave detectors. Because these instruments are sensitive to massive (M > 20M⊙) stellar-mass binary black holes mergers out to high redshift (z > 1), we discuss the cosmological effects which must be taken into account when calculating LIGO detection rates, including a generalization of the calculation of the ``peanut factor'' and the sensitive time-volume.

  17. Predictive Rate-Distortion for Infinite-Order Markov Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzen, Sarah E.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2016-06-01

    Predictive rate-distortion analysis suffers from the curse of dimensionality: clustering arbitrarily long pasts to retain information about arbitrarily long futures requires resources that typically grow exponentially with length. The challenge is compounded for infinite-order Markov processes, since conditioning on finite sequences cannot capture all of their past dependencies. Spectral arguments confirm a popular intuition: algorithms that cluster finite-length sequences fail dramatically when the underlying process has long-range temporal correlations and can fail even for processes generated by finite-memory hidden Markov models. We circumvent the curse of dimensionality in rate-distortion analysis of finite- and infinite-order processes by casting predictive rate-distortion objective functions in terms of the forward- and reverse-time causal states of computational mechanics. Examples demonstrate that the resulting algorithms yield substantial improvements.

  18. Predictive Rate-Distortion for Infinite-Order Markov Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzen, Sarah E.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2016-05-01

    Predictive rate-distortion analysis suffers from the curse of dimensionality: clustering arbitrarily long pasts to retain information about arbitrarily long futures requires resources that typically grow exponentially with length. The challenge is compounded for infinite-order Markov processes, since conditioning on finite sequences cannot capture all of their past dependencies. Spectral arguments confirm a popular intuition: algorithms that cluster finite-length sequences fail dramatically when the underlying process has long-range temporal correlations and can fail even for processes generated by finite-memory hidden Markov models. We circumvent the curse of dimensionality in rate-distortion analysis of finite- and infinite-order processes by casting predictive rate-distortion objective functions in terms of the forward- and reverse-time causal states of computational mechanics. Examples demonstrate that the resulting algorithms yield substantial improvements.

  19. Predicted maximal heart rate for upper body exercise testing.

    PubMed

    Hill, M; Talbot, C; Price, M

    2016-03-01

    Age-predicted maximal heart rate (HRMAX ) equations are commonly used for the purpose of prescribing exercise regimens, as criteria for achieving maximal exertion and for diagnostic exercise testing. Despite the growing popularity of upper body exercise in both healthy and clinical settings, no recommendations are available for exercise modes using the smaller upper body muscle mass. The purpose of this study was to determine how well commonly used age-adjusted prediction equations for HRMAX estimate actual HRMAX for upper body exercise in healthy young and older adults. A total of 30 young (age: 20 ± 2 years, height: 171·9 ± 32·8 cm, mass: 77·7 ± 12·6 kg) and 20 elderly adults (age: 66 ± 6 years, height: 162 ± 8·1 cm, mass: 65·3 ± 12·3 kg) undertook maximal incremental exercise tests on a conventional arm crank ergometer. Age-adjusted maximal heart rate was calculated using prediction equations based on leg exercise and compared with measured HRMAX data for the arms. Maximal HR for arm exercise was significantly overpredicted compared with age-adjusted prediction equations in both young and older adults. Subtracting 10-20 beats min(-1) from conventional prediction equations provides a reasonable estimate of HRMAX for upper body exercise in healthy older and younger adults. PMID:25319169

  20. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  1. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-06-01

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ(j) of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j'-th time point where j≤j'≤j+n. To model the variation of φ(j), we assume that φ(j) depends on φ(j-m), φ(j-m+1),…, φ(j-1) and the interest rate rj+n at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value rj+n+1 of the interest rate at the next time point when the value rj+n of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate rj+n+d at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  2. The increasing predictive validity of self-rated health.

    PubMed

    Schnittker, Jason; Bacak, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Using the 1980 to 2002 General Social Survey, a repeated cross-sectional study that has been linked to the National Death Index through 2008, this study examines the changing relationship between self-rated health and mortality. Research has established that self-rated health has exceptional predictive validity with respect to mortality, but this validity may be deteriorating in light of the rapid medicalization of seemingly superficial conditions and increasingly high expectations for good health. Yet the current study shows the validity of self-rated health is increasing over time. Individuals are apparently better at assessing their health in 2002 than they were in 1980 and, for this reason, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is considerably stronger across all levels of self-rated health. Several potential mechanisms for this increase are explored. More schooling and more cognitive ability increase the predictive validity of self-rated health, but neither of these influences explains the growing association between self-rated health and mortality. The association is also invariant to changing causes of death, including a decline in accidental deaths, which are, by definition, unanticipated by the individual. Using data from the final two waves of data, we find suggestive evidence that exposure to more health information is the driving force, but we also show that the source of information is very important. For example, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is smaller among those who use the internet to find health information than among those who do not. PMID:24465452

  3. The Increasing Predictive Validity of Self-Rated Health

    PubMed Central

    Schnittker, Jason; Bacak, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Using the 1980 to 2002 General Social Survey, a repeated cross-sectional study that has been linked to the National Death Index through 2008, this study examines the changing relationship between self-rated health and mortality. Research has established that self-rated health has exceptional predictive validity with respect to mortality, but this validity may be deteriorating in light of the rapid medicalization of seemingly superficial conditions and increasingly high expectations for good health. Yet the current study shows the validity of self-rated health is increasing over time. Individuals are apparently better at assessing their health in 2002 than they were in 1980 and, for this reason, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is considerably stronger across all levels of self-rated health. Several potential mechanisms for this increase are explored. More schooling and more cognitive ability increase the predictive validity of self-rated health, but neither of these influences explains the growing association between self-rated health and mortality. The association is also invariant to changing causes of death, including a decline in accidental deaths, which are, by definition, unanticipated by the individual. Using data from the final two waves of data, we find suggestive evidence that exposure to more health information is the driving force, but we also show that the source of information is very important. For example, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is smaller among those who use the internet to find health information than among those who do not. PMID:24465452

  4. Modeling and predicting drug resistance rate and strength.

    PubMed

    Fullybright, R; Dwivedi, A; Mallawaarachchi, I; Sinsin, B

    2016-08-01

    Drug resistance has been worsening in human infectious diseases medicine over the past several decades. Our ability to successfully control resistance depends to a large extent on our understanding of the features characterizing the process. Part of that understanding includes the rate at which new resistance has been emerging in pathogens. Along that line, resistance data covering 90 infectious diseases, 118 pathogens, and 337 molecules, from 1921 through 2007, are modeled using various statistical tools to generate regression models for the rate of new resistance emergence and for cumulative resistance build-up in pathogens. Thereafter, the strength of the association between the number of molecules put on the market and the number of resulting cases of resistance is statistically tested. Predictive models are presented for the rate at which new resistance has been emerging in infectious diseases medicine, along with predictive models for the rate of cumulative resistance build-up in the aggregate of 118 pathogens as well as in ten individual pathogens. The models are expressed as a function of time and/or as a function of the number of molecules put on the market by the pharmaceutical industry. It is found that molecules significantly induce resistance in pathogens and that new or cumulative drug resistance across infectious diseases medicine has been arising at exponential rates. PMID:27209288

  5. Pilots Rate Augmented Generalized Predictive Control for Reconfiguration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soloway, Don; Haley, Pam

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to report the results from the research being conducted in reconfigurable fight controls at NASA Ames. A study was conducted with three NASA Dryden test pilots to evaluate two approaches of reconfiguring an aircraft's control system when failures occur in the control surfaces and engine. NASA Ames is investigating both a Neural Generalized Predictive Control scheme and a Neural Network based Dynamic Inverse controller. This paper highlights the Predictive Control scheme where a simple augmentation to reduce zero steady-state error led to the neural network predictor model becoming redundant for the task. Instead of using a neural network predictor model, a nominal single point linear model was used and then augmented with an error corrector. This paper shows that the Generalized Predictive Controller and the Dynamic Inverse Neural Network controller perform equally well at reconfiguration, but with less rate requirements from the actuators. Also presented are the pilot ratings for each controller for various failure scenarios and two samples of the required control actuation during reconfiguration. Finally, the paper concludes by stepping through the Generalized Predictive Control's reconfiguration process for an elevator failure.

  6. Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeCastro, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

  7. Prediction of the oocyte recovery rate in the bitch.

    PubMed

    Ström Holst, B; Larsson, B; Rodriguez-Martinez, H; Lagerstedt, A S; Linde-Forsberg, C

    2001-12-01

    In order to investigate the possibility of predicting the recovery rate of oocytes for use in a sperm-zona pellucida binding assay, ovaries were obtained from 67 bitches of 37 different breeds, and cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) were recovered by mincing the ovaries with a scalpel. The mean number of COCs recovered was 37.2 +/- 34.1 (range 0-145) per ovary. Age significantly affected COC recovery rates. From bitches 1-6 years old, 54.2 +/- 35.1 COCs/ovary were recovered, compared to 26.4 +/- 29.0 from bitches 7-13 years old (P = 0.003). The morphology of the uterus or the presence or absence of ovarian structures had no significant effect on COC recovery rates, although there was a tendency for more COCs to be recovered from ovaries with only follicles visible on the surface. There were no significant correlations between body weight or ovarian weight and COC recovery rates. There was a high correlation in the COC recovery rate between the two ovaries of a bitch, enabling an approximate estimation of the COC recovery rate from the second ovary when the COCs from the first ovary have been recovered. The large variation in COC recovery rates between bitches stresses the need for storage of canine oocytes in order to secure a high enough number of oocytes for a homologous sperm-zona pellucida binding assay in the dog. PMID:11848251

  8. CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, James H., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and

  9. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods. PMID:26880879

  10. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods. PMID:26880879

  11. Prediction of protein folding rates from simplified secondary structure alphabet.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jitao T; Wang, Titi; Huang, Shanran R; Li, Xin

    2015-10-21

    Protein folding is a very complicated and highly cooperative dynamic process. However, the folding kinetics is likely to depend more on a few key structural features. Here we find that secondary structures can determine folding rates of only large, multi-state folding proteins and fails to predict those for small, two-state proteins. The importance of secondary structures for protein folding is ordered as: extended β strand > α helix > bend > turn > undefined secondary structure>310 helix > isolated β strand > π helix. Only the first three secondary structures, extended β strand, α helix and bend, can achieve a good correlation with folding rates. This suggests that the rate-limiting step of protein folding would depend upon the formation of regular secondary structures and the buckling of chain. The reduced secondary structure alphabet provides a simplified description for the machine learning applications in protein design. PMID:26247139

  12. An analytical prediction of pilot ratings utilizing human pilot model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tanaka, K.; Washizu, K.

    1982-01-01

    In order to analytically predict pilot ratings, an evaluation method of a manual control system which consists of an aircraft and a human pilot, is proposed and examined. The method is constructed upon the assumptions that the control mission determines the critical frequency the pilot should bring to his focus, and that the degree of closed-loop stability and the human compensation necessary to attain the stability determine the human subjective evaluation of the system. As a result, a simple evaluation chart is introduced. The chart enables prediction of the subjective evaluation, if the controlled element dynamics and the mission are given. The chart is in good accord with almost all of the existing results of pilot ratings. This method has the following advantages: (1) simplicity, in a sense that the method needs to evaluate only two typical controlled element parameters, namely, the gain slope and the phase at the critical control frequency; (2) applicability to unstable controlled elements; (3) predictability of controllability limits of manual control; (4) possibility of estimating human compensatory dynamics.

  13. Variations in the Rate at Which Students Cross the Boundaries between Australian Vocational and Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moodie, Gavin

    2012-01-01

    This paper considers the rate at which students are crossing the boundaries between Australian vocational and higher education. It finds that public universities admit a higher proportion of students on the basis of a vocational education qualification than do private colleges and that private colleges broadly do not admit a higher proportion of…

  14. Prediction of Rate Constant for Supramolecular Systems with Multiconfigurations.

    PubMed

    Guo, Tao; Li, Haiyan; Wu, Li; Guo, Zhen; Yin, Xianzhen; Wang, Caifen; Sun, Lixin; Shao, Qun; Gu, Jingkai; York, Peter; Zhang, Jiwen

    2016-02-25

    The control of supramolecular systems requires a thorough understanding of their dynamics, especially on a molecular level. It is extremely difficult to determine the thermokinetic parameters of supramolecular systems, such as drug-cyclodextrin complexes with fast association/dissociation processes by experimental techniques. In this paper, molecular modeling combined with novel mathematical relationships integrating the thermodynamic/thermokinetic parameters of a series of isomeric multiconfigurations to predict the overall parameters in a range of pH values have been employed to study supramolecular dynamics at the molecular level. A suitable form of Eyring's equation was derived and a two-stage model was introduced. The new approach enabled accurate prediction of the apparent dissociation/association (koff/kon) and unbinding/binding (k-r/kr) rate constants of the ubiquitous multiconfiguration complexes of the supramolecular system. The pyronine Y (PY) was used as a model system for the validation of the presented method. Interestingly, the predicted koff value ((40 ± 1) × 10(5) s(-1), 298 K) of PY is largely in agreement with that previously determined by fluorescence correlation spectroscopy ((5 ± 3) × 10(5) s(-1), 298 K). Moreover, the koff/kon and k-r/kr for flurbiprofen-β-cylcodextrin and ibuprofen-β-cyclodextrin systems were also predicted and suggested that the association processes are diffusion-controlled. The methodology is considered to be especially useful in the design and selection of excipients for a supramolecular system with preferred association and dissociation rate constants and understanding their mechanisms. It is believed that this new approach could be applicable to a wide range of ligand-receptor supramolecular systems and will surely help in understanding their complex mechanism. PMID:26840799

  15. A specific absorption rate prediction concept for parallel transmission MR.

    PubMed

    Graesslin, Ingmar; Homann, Hanno; Biederer, Sven; Börnert, Peter; Nehrke, Kay; Vernickel, Peter; Mens, Giel; Harvey, Paul; Katscher, Ulrich

    2012-11-01

    The specific absorption rate (SAR) is a limiting factor in high-field MR. SAR estimation is typically performed by numerical simulations using generic human body models. However, SAR concepts for single-channel radiofrequency transmission cannot be directly applied to multichannel systems. In this study, a novel and comprehensive SAR prediction concept for parallel radiofrequency transmission MRI is presented, based on precalculated magnetic and electric fields obtained from electromagnetic simulations of numerical body models. The application of so-called Q-matrices and further computational optimizations allow for a real-time estimation of the SAR prior to scanning. This SAR estimation method was fully integrated into an eight-channel whole body MRI system, and it facilitated the selection of different body models and body positions. Experimental validation of the global SAR in phantoms demonstrated a good qualitative and quantitative agreement with the predictions. An initial in vivo validation showed good qualitative agreement between simulated and measured amplitude of (excitation) radiofrequency field. The feasibility and practicability of this SAR prediction concept was shown paving the way for safe parallel radiofrequency transmission in high-field MR. PMID:22231647

  16. 1984-2008. Predictions for Higher Education. From the 25th Anniversary Colloquium. [Proceedings].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hardee, Melvene Draheim, Ed.

    Predictions on higher education for 1984-2009 are presented in the proceedings of a colloquium of the Institute for Studies in Higher Education of Florida State University. Presentations were made at the colloquium by 10 graduates of the university whose current positions represent administration-management, instruction, research, and student…

  17. Self‐Rated Health Predicts Healthcare Utilization in Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Chamberlain, Alanna M.; Manemann, Sheila M.; Dunlay, Shannon M.; Spertus, John A.; Moser, Debra K.; Berardi, Cecilia; Kane, Robert L.; Weston, Susan A.; Redfield, Margaret M.; Roger, Véronique L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Heart failure (HF) patients experience impaired functional status, diminished quality of life, high utilization of healthcare resources, and poor survival. Yet, the identification of patient‐centered factors that influence prognosis is lacking. Methods and Results We determined the association of 2 measures of self‐rated health with healthcare utilization and skilled nursing facility (SNF) admission in a community cohort of 417 HF patients prospectively enrolled between October 2007 and December 2010 from Olmsted County, MN. Patients completed a 12‐item Short Form Health Survey (SF‐12). Low self‐reported physical functioning was defined as a score ≤25 on the SF‐12 physical component. The first question of the SF‐12 was used as a measure of self‐rated general health. After 2 years, 1033 hospitalizations, 1407 emergency department (ED) visits, and 19,780 outpatient office visits were observed; 87 patients were admitted to a SNF. After adjustment for confounding factors, an increased risk of hospitalizations (1.52 [1.17 to 1.99]) and ED visits (1.48 [1.04 to 2.11]) was observed for those with low versus moderate‐high self‐reported physical functioning. Patients with poor and fair self‐rated general health also experienced an increased risk of hospitalizations (poor: 1.73 [1.29 to 2.32]; fair: 1.46 [1.14 to 1.87]) and ED visits (poor: 1.73 [1.16 to 2.56]; fair: 1.48 [1.13 to 1.93]) compared with good‐excellent self‐rated general health. No association between self‐reported physical functioning or self‐rated general health with outpatient visits and SNF admission was observed. Conclusion In community HF patients, self‐reported measures of physical functioning predict hospitalizations and ED visits, indicating that these patient‐reported measures may be useful in risk stratification and management in HF. PMID:24870937

  18. Automatic Prediction of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Events Using Heart Rate Variability Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Melillo, Paolo; Izzo, Raffaele; Orrico, Ada; Scala, Paolo; Attanasio, Marcella; Mirra, Marco; De Luca, Nicola; Pecchia, Leandro

    2015-01-01

    Background There is consensus that Heart Rate Variability is associated with the risk of vascular events. However, Heart Rate Variability predictive value for vascular events is not completely clear. The aim of this study is to develop novel predictive models based on data-mining algorithms to provide an automatic risk stratification tool for hypertensive patients. Methods A database of 139 Holter recordings with clinical data of hypertensive patients followed up for at least 12 months were collected ad hoc. Subjects who experienced a vascular event (i.e., myocardial infarction, stroke, syncopal event) were considered as high-risk subjects. Several data-mining algorithms (such as support vector machine, tree-based classifier, artificial neural network) were used to develop automatic classifiers and their accuracy was tested by assessing the receiver-operator characteristics curve. Moreover, we tested the echographic parameters, which have been showed as powerful predictors of future vascular events. Results The best predictive model was based on random forest and enabled to identify high-risk hypertensive patients with sensitivity and specificity rates of 71.4% and 87.8%, respectively. The Heart Rate Variability based classifier showed higher predictive values than the conventional echographic parameters, which are considered as significant cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Combination of Heart Rate Variability measures, analyzed with data-mining algorithm, could be a reliable tool for identifying hypertensive patients at high risk to develop future vascular events. PMID:25793605

  19. Do Expenditures Other than Instructional Expenditures Affect Graduation and Persistence Rates in American Higher Education. Revised

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Douglas A.; Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    2010-01-01

    Rates of tuition increases in both private and public higher education that continually exceed inflation, coupled with the fact that the United States no longer leads the world in terms of the fraction of young adults who have college degrees, have focused attention on why costs keep increasing in higher education and what categories of higher…

  20. Theoretical prediction of regression rates in swirl-injection hybrid rocket engines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozawa, K.; Shimada, T.

    2016-07-01

    The authors theoretically and analytically predict what times regression rates of swirl injection hybrid rocket engines increase higher than the axial injection ones by estimating heat flux from boundary layer combustion to the fuel port. The schematic of engines is assumed as ones whose oxidizer is injected from the opposite side of the nozzle such as ones of Yuasa et al. propose. To simplify the estimation, we assume some hypotheses such as three-dimensional (3D) axisymmetric flows have been assumed. The results of this prediction method are largely consistent with Yuasa's experiments data in the range of high swirl numbers.

  1. A model for predicting wear rates in tooth enamel.

    PubMed

    Borrero-Lopez, Oscar; Pajares, Antonia; Constantino, Paul J; Lawn, Brian R

    2014-09-01

    It is hypothesized that wear of enamel is sensitive to the presence of sharp particulates in oral fluids and masticated foods. To this end, a generic model for predicting wear rates in brittle materials is developed, with specific application to tooth enamel. Wear is assumed to result from an accumulation of elastic-plastic micro-asperity events. Integration over all such events leads to a wear rate relation analogous to Archard׳s law, but with allowance for variation in asperity angle and compliance. The coefficient K in this relation quantifies the wear severity, with an arbitrary distinction between 'mild' wear (low K) and 'severe' wear (high K). Data from the literature and in-house wear-test experiments on enamel specimens in lubricant media (water, oil) with and without sharp third-body particulates (silica, diamond) are used to validate the model. Measured wear rates can vary over several orders of magnitude, depending on contact asperity conditions, accounting for the occurrence of severe enamel removal in some human patients (bruxing). Expressions for the depth removal rate and number of cycles to wear down occlusal enamel in the low-crowned tooth forms of some mammals are derived, with tooth size and enamel thickness as key variables. The role of 'hard' versus 'soft' food diets in determining evolutionary paths in different hominin species is briefly considered. A feature of the model is that it does not require recourse to specific material removal mechanisms, although processes involving microplastic extrusion and microcrack coalescence are indicated. PMID:24953823

  2. Beyond the Mincer Equation: The Internal Rate of Return to Higher Education in Colombia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    García-Suaza, Andrés Felipe; Guataquí, Juan Carlos; Guerra, José Alberto; Maldonado, Darío

    2014-01-01

    In order to present an estimation of the internal rate of return (IRR) to higher education in Colombia, we take advantage of recent updates on the methodological approach towards earnings equations. In order to overcome the criticism that surrounds interpretations of the education coefficient of Mincer equations as being the rate of return to…

  3. Melt rate predictions for slurry-fed glass melters

    SciTech Connect

    Freeman, C.J.

    1996-03-01

    Numerous bench-scale and pilot-scale tests have been conducted to support high-level waste vitrification projects within DOE. These projects include the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWP), the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF), and the West Valley Demonstration Project (MNDP). Testing for these projects has investigated aspects of the vitrification process such as the pumpability of the slurry feed, melter processing rates, melter scale-up, and off-gas decontamination factors for feed constituents. The high costs for testing have generated interest in using modeling to predict major processing impacts on the vitrification systems from any given feed material. Important components required for such modeling include feed composition, feed rheology, melter glass temperature, melter geometry, and melter power configurations. I Some work has already been performed in modeling glass melters, but little attention has been given to feed composition (Routt 1982).

  4. Sediment rating curve & Co. - a contest of prediction methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francke, T.; Zimmermann, A.

    2012-04-01

    In spite of the recent technological progress in sediment monitoring, often the calculation of sediment yield (SSY) still relies on intermittent measurements because of the use of historic records, instrument-failure in continuous recording or financial constraints. Therefore, available measurements are usually inter- and even extrapolated using the sediment rating curve approach, which uses continuously available discharge data to predict sediment concentrations. Extending this idea by further aspects like the inclusion of other predictors (e.g. rainfall, discharge-characteristics, etc.), or the consideration of prediction uncertainty led to a variety of new methods. Now, with approaches such as Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Networks, Tree-based regression, GLMs, etc., the user is left to decide which method to apply. Trying multiple approaches is usually not an option, as considerable effort and expertise may be needed for their application. To establish a helpful guideline in selecting the most appropriate method for SSY-computation, we initiated a study to compare and rank available methods. Depending on problem attributes like hydrological and sediment regime, number of samples, sampling scheme, and availability of ancillary predictors, the performance of different methods is compared. Our expertise allowed us to "register" Random Forests, Quantile Regression Forests and GLMs for the contest. To include many different methods and ensure their sophisticated use we invite scientists that are willing to benchmark their favourite method(s) with us. The more diverse the participating methods are, the more exciting the contest will be.

  5. Congruence and predictive power of mothers' and teachers' ratings of mastery motivation in children with mental retardation.

    PubMed

    Hauser-Cram, P; Krauss, M W; Warfield, M E; Steele, A

    1997-10-01

    The congruence between mothers' and teachers' ratings of mastery motivation among 3-year-old children with mental retardation was investigated. The extent to which maternal and teacher ratings of task persistence at entry to preschool are predictive of observed mastery behaviors at age 5 was tested. Results indicate that mothers rated their children's task persistence behaviors higher than did teachers. Further, once the child's cognitive level and teacher ratings were controlled for statistically, maternal ratings of the child's mastery behaviors were predictive of the child's task mastery performance 2 years subsequent. Implications for educational planning were discussed. PMID:9339064

  6. Predicting Hyper-Chaotic Time Series Using Adaptive Higher-Order Nonlinear Filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jia-Shu; Xiao, Xian-Ci

    2001-03-01

    A newly proposed method, i.e. the adaptive higher-order nonlinear finite impulse response (HONFIR) filter based on higher-order sparse Volterra series expansions, is introduced to predict hyper-chaotic time series. The effectiveness of using the adaptive HONFIR filter for making one-step and multi-step predictions is tested based on very few data points by computer-generated hyper-chaotic time series including the Mackey-Glass equation and four-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system. A comparison is made with some neural networks for predicting the Mackey-Glass hyper-chaotic time series. Numerical simulation results show that the adaptive HONFIR filter proposed here is a very powerful tool for making prediction of hyper-chaotic time series.

  7. Emotional exhaustion and workload predict clinician-rated and objective patient safety

    PubMed Central

    Welp, Annalena; Meier, Laurenz L.; Manser, Tanja

    2015-01-01

    Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic, and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables, and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. Regression analysis (multilevel) was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience) and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability) characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety was associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios. Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables and support to the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety. PMID:25657627

  8. Mechanisms promoting higher growth rate in arctic than in temperate shorebirds.

    PubMed

    Schekkerman, Hans; Tulp, Ingrid; Piersma, Theunis; Visser, G Henk

    2003-02-01

    We compared prefledging growth, energy expenditure, and time budgets in the arctic-breeding red knot (Calidris canutus) to those in temperate shorebirds, to investigate how arctic chicks achieve a high growth rate despite energetic difficulties associated with precocial development in a cold climate. Growth rate of knot chicks was very high compared to other, mainly temperate, shorebirds of their size, but strongly correlated with weather-induced and seasonal variation in availability of invertebrate prey. Red knot chicks sought less parental brooding and foraged more at the same mass and temperature than chicks of three temperate shorebird species studied in The Netherlands. Fast growth and high muscular activity in the cold tundra environment led to high energy expenditure, as measured using doubly labelled water: total metabolised energy over the 18-day prefledging period was 89% above an allometric prediction, and among the highest values reported for birds. A comparative simulation model based on our observations and data for temperate shorebird chicks showed that several factors combine to enable red knots to meet these high energy requirements: (1) the greater cold-hardiness of red knot chicks increases time available for foraging; (2) their fast growth further shortens the period in which chicks depend on brooding; and (3) the 24-h daylight increases potential foraging time, though knots apparently did not make full use of this. These mechanisms buffer the loss of foraging time due to increased need for brooding at arctic temperatures, but not enough to satisfy the high energy requirements without invoking (4) a higher foraging intake rate as an explanation. Since surface-active arthropods were not more abundant in our arctic study site than in a temperate grassland, this may be due to easier detection or capture of prey in the tundra. The model also suggested that the cold-hardiness of red knot chicks is critical in allowing them sufficient feeding time

  9. Chloride-Mass-Balance: Cautions in Predicting Increased Recharge Rates

    SciTech Connect

    Gee, Glendon W.; Zhang, Z. F.; Tyler , S. W.; Albright , W. H.; Singleton , M. J.

    2005-02-01

    The chloride-mass-balance (CMB) method has been used extensively to estimate recharge in arid and semi-arid environments. Required data include estimates of annual precipitation, total chloride input (from dry fallout and precipitation), and pore-water chloride concentrations. Typically, CMB has been used to estimate ancient recharge but recharge from recent land-use change has also been documented. Recharge rates below a few mm/yr are reliably detected with CMB; however, estimates above a few mm/yr appear to be less reliable. We tested the CMB method against 26 years of drainage from a 7.6 m deep lysimeter at a simulated waste-burial ground, located on the Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State, USA where land-use change has increased recharge rates. Measured drainage from the lysimeter for the past 26 years averaged 62 mm/yr. Precipitation averaged 190 mm/yr with an estimated chloride input of 0.225 mg/L. Initial pore-water chloride concentration was 88 mg/L and decreased to about 6 mg/L after 26 years, while the drainage water decreased to less than 1 mg/L. A recharge estimate made using chloride concentrations in drain water was within 20% of the measured drainage rate. In contrast, recharge estimates using 1:1 (water: soil) extracts were lower than actual by factors ranging from 2 to 8 or more. The results suggest that when recharge is above a few mm/yr, soil water extracts can lead to unreliable estimates of recharge. For conditions of elevated recharge, direct sampling of pore water is the preferred method, because chloride concentrations are often 20 to 50 times higher in directly-sampled pore water than in pore-water extracts.

  10. Transient erosion rates predicted from topographic curvature of ridges (Feather River, California)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurst, M. D.; Mudd, S. M.; Walcott, R.; Yoo, K.; Attal, M.

    2010-12-01

    Rates of erosion can control the morphology of entire landscapes. Methods to quantify erosion are expensive and time consuming, but potentially these rates may be predicted rapidly over large spatial extents using topographic metrics. In landscapes with similar vegetation, climate and geology, mean basin slope has been shown to be linearly correlated with erosion rate, except in rapidly eroding landscapes where hillslopes steepen to approach a threshold slope. However landscape evolution models in which hillslope sediment flux is non-linearly dependent on slopes predict the curvature of ridges to be linearly proportional to erosion rates (Roering et al 2007). The curvature of hilltops may respond to higher erosion rates than mean basin slope as ridge curvature is only limited by whether soil production can keep pace with channel erosion rates. We test the utility of ridge-top curvature for estimating erosion rates using high resolution (1m) Airborne Laser Swath Mapping (ALSM) derived digital elevation data. Cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) derived erosion rates for our field site in the Feather River, California, suggests erosion rates vary over an order of magnitude (0.01 to >0.2cm yr-1) (Riebe et al 2000). These data, combined with new CRN-derived erosion rates, are used to demonstrate erosion scales linearly with hilltop curvature, where hillslopes are judged to have adjusted to the erosion rate in the channel at their toe. From this relationship we determine the diffusion coefficient which controls the relationship between hillslope gradient and sediment flux, allowing estimation of erosion rates throughout our field area. Previous workers have demonstrated that mean hillslope angle can stand as a proxy for erosion rates only at rates <~0.25mm yr-1, until threshold angles are reached (e.g. Binnie et al 2007). Using an algorithm to extract a network of ridgelines and sample the mean hilltop curvature for a series of drainage basins in the study area, we show that

  11. Unfolded protein ensembles, folding trajectories, and refolding rate prediction.

    PubMed

    Das, A; Sin, B K; Mohazab, A R; Plotkin, S S

    2013-09-28

    Computer simulations can provide critical information on the unfolded ensemble of proteins under physiological conditions, by explicitly characterizing the geometrical properties of the diverse conformations that are sampled in the unfolded state. A general computational analysis across many proteins has not been implemented however. Here, we develop a method for generating a diverse conformational ensemble, to characterize properties of the unfolded states of intrinsically disordered or intrinsically folded proteins. The method allows unfolded proteins to retain disulfide bonds. We examined physical properties of the unfolded ensembles of several proteins, including chemical shifts, clustering properties, and scaling exponents for the radius of gyration with polymer length. A problem relating simulated and experimental residual dipolar couplings is discussed. We apply our generated ensembles to the problem of folding kinetics, by examining whether the ensembles of some proteins are closer geometrically to their folded structures than others. We find that for a randomly selected dataset of 15 non-homologous 2- and 3-state proteins, quantities such as the average root mean squared deviation between the folded structure and unfolded ensemble correlate with folding rates as strongly as absolute contact order. We introduce a new order parameter that measures the distance travelled per residue, which naturally partitions into a smooth "laminar" and subsequent "turbulent" part of the trajectory. This latter conceptually simple measure with no fitting parameters predicts folding rates in 0 M denaturant with remarkable accuracy (r = -0.95, p = 1 × 10(-7)). The high correlation between folding times and sterically modulated, reconfigurational motion supports the rapid collapse of proteins prior to the transition state as a generic feature in the folding of both two-state and multi-state proteins. This method for generating unfolded ensembles provides a powerful approach to

  12. Unfolded protein ensembles, folding trajectories, and refolding rate prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, A.; Sin, B. K.; Mohazab, A. R.; Plotkin, S. S.

    2013-09-01

    Computer simulations can provide critical information on the unfolded ensemble of proteins under physiological conditions, by explicitly characterizing the geometrical properties of the diverse conformations that are sampled in the unfolded state. A general computational analysis across many proteins has not been implemented however. Here, we develop a method for generating a diverse conformational ensemble, to characterize properties of the unfolded states of intrinsically disordered or intrinsically folded proteins. The method allows unfolded proteins to retain disulfide bonds. We examined physical properties of the unfolded ensembles of several proteins, including chemical shifts, clustering properties, and scaling exponents for the radius of gyration with polymer length. A problem relating simulated and experimental residual dipolar couplings is discussed. We apply our generated ensembles to the problem of folding kinetics, by examining whether the ensembles of some proteins are closer geometrically to their folded structures than others. We find that for a randomly selected dataset of 15 non-homologous 2- and 3-state proteins, quantities such as the average root mean squared deviation between the folded structure and unfolded ensemble correlate with folding rates as strongly as absolute contact order. We introduce a new order parameter that measures the distance travelled per residue, which naturally partitions into a smooth "laminar" and subsequent "turbulent" part of the trajectory. This latter conceptually simple measure with no fitting parameters predicts folding rates in 0 M denaturant with remarkable accuracy (r = -0.95, p = 1 × 10-7). The high correlation between folding times and sterically modulated, reconfigurational motion supports the rapid collapse of proteins prior to the transition state as a generic feature in the folding of both two-state and multi-state proteins. This method for generating unfolded ensembles provides a powerful approach to

  13. Predicting Academic Success in Higher Education: What's More Important than Being Smart?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kappe, Rutger; van der Flier, Henk

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the combined predictive validity of intelligence and personality factors on multiple measures of academic achievement. Students in a college of higher education in the Netherlands (N = 137) completed a survey that measured intelligence, the Big Five personality traits, motivation, and four specific personality traits.…

  14. Reading the IT Leaves: Four Predictions for Higher Education Technology in 2011

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grush, Mary

    2011-01-01

    No start to the new year is complete without media prognostications for the 12 months ahead. Leaving the social, political, and economic fad predictions to others, "CT" asked four members of its editorial and conference advisory boards to identify information technology trends in higher education that are beginning to take real hold in 2011--the…

  15. Retention in Higher Education: Faculty and Student Perceptions of Retention Programs and Factors Impacting Attrition Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mansfield, Malinda; O'Leary, Erin; Webb, Shekeita

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine faculty and student perceptions of what factors are contributing to drop-out rates in a Northern Indiana higher educational facility and to study whether or not the drop-out prevention programs that are in place are effective. Survey links were sent out to all adjuncts and some full-time faculty at a local…

  16. Indigenous Australian Students' Participation Rates in Higher Education: Exploring the Role of Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pechenkina, Ekaterina; Kowal, Emma; Paradies, Yin

    2011-01-01

    Indigenous Australians are underrepresented and considerably disadvantaged within the Australian system of higher education. The various measures taken by Australian universities over the past decades have produced varying levels of success in increasing Indigenous participation and completion rates. In order to continue improving Indigenous…

  17. Dynamics of Rate of Returns for Postgraduate Education in Taiwan: The Impact of Higher Education Expansion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Chih-Hai; Lin, Chun-Hung A.; Lin, Chien-Ru

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyzes the dynamics of rate of returns for postgraduate education and the determinants of wage premiums for postgraduate labor, especially for the impact of higher education expansions, in terms of quantity and quality, since the late 1990s in Taiwan. Utilizing quasi-panel data over the 1990-2004 period and employing the double fixed…

  18. Higher infused lymphocyte dose predicts higher lymphocyte recovery, which in turn, predicts superior overall survival following autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Hiwase, Devendra K; Hiwase, Smita; Bailey, Michael; Bollard, Geraldine; Schwarer, Anthony P

    2008-01-01

    Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is the standard of care for patients with multiple myeloma (MM) younger than 70 years. However, despite this aggressive therapy most patients will still die of progressive disease. Recent reports have suggested that lymphocyte recovery is an important predictor of relapse or progressive disease in a number of hematologic malignancies including MM. We have conducted retrospective analysis of factors that could predict overall (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) in patients with MM who had ASCT. One hundred nineteen patients with multiple myeloma underwent ASCT. The median OS and PFS were 64 and 32 months, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression model showed that absolute lymphocyte count on day 30 following ASCT (ALC-30), international staging system (ISS) stage at diagnosis, and age at diagnosis significantly influenced OS and PFS following ASCT. OS (96 versus 48 months, P = .04) and PFS (43 versus 29 months, P = .03) following ASCT were higher in patients with ALC-30 >or=1.0 x 10(9)/L compared to patients ALC-30 <1.0 x 10(9)/L. Higher ALC-60, ALC-100, ALC-180, and ALC-365 did not predict superior OS and PFS. Patients with early-stage disease had significantly higher OS (ISS stages I, II, and III: 96, 53, and 29 months, respectively; P = .0023) and PFS (ISS stages I, II, and III: 55.5, 31, and 12 months, respectively; P = .027) compared to patients with advanced-stage disease at diagnosis. On univariate analysis, the type of initial chemotherapy (melphalan, VAD, PCAB), lymphocyte count on day of leukapheresis, and the lymphocyte dose infused (LY-DO) significantly influenced lymphocyte recovery following ASCT. Patients who received higher lymphocyte dose (LY-DO) >or=0.2 x 10(9)/kg had higher median ALC-15 (0.25 versus 0.19 x 10(9)/L; P = .3), ALC-30 (1.20 versus 0.99 x 10(9)/L; P = .08), ALC-60 (1.90 versus 1.01 x 10(9)/L; P = .013), ALC-100 (1.58 versus 1.03 x 10

  19. Higher Fibrinogen Levels Predict Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Adults with Type 1 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, T.C.; Snell-Bergeon, J.K.; Maahs, D.M; Kinney, G.L.; Rewers, M.

    2010-01-01

    Aim To determine whether fibrinogen levels predict independently progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in adults with type 1 diabetes. Methods Data from a prospective cohort - the Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes Study - were evaluated. Fibrinogen levels at baseline were separated into quartiles. CAC was measured twice and averaged at baseline and at follow-up 2.4 ± 0.4 years later. CAC progressors were defined as participants whose square-root transformed CAC volume increased by ≥ 2.53 or development mm of clinical coronary artery disease during the follow-up period. Results Fibrinogen levels were higher in progressors than in non-progressors (276 ± 61 mg/dl versus 259 ± 61 mg/dl, p = 0.0003). CAC progression, adjusted for known cardiovascular risk factors, increased in the highest quartile. Conclusions Higher fibrinogen levels predict CAC progression in type 1 diabetes subjects, independent of standard cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:20079495

  20. Higher-order prediction terms and fixing the renormalization scale using the BLM approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirjalili, Abolfazl; Khellat, Mohammad Reza

    2014-12-01

    There is an ambiguity in the perturbative series of QCD observables on how to choose the renormalization and even more the factorization scale. There are many approaches to overcome this obstacle and to fix the scales. Among them, there is the Brodsky-Lepage-Mackenzie (BLM) approach which is based on an intriguing principle. Based on the BLM approach, we intend to absorb the nf-terms in the pQCD series that rightly determines the running behavior of the running coupling into the running coupling. We make an extensive use of the BLM approach to investigate the details of predicting higher order correction terms of some QCD observables. By this way we test different methods to improve the prediction process. It is also found out that an overall normalization could change BLM predictions effectively.

  1. Implementation of Higher Order Laminate Theory Into Strain Rate Dependent Micromechanics Analysis of Polymer Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Heung Soo; Zhu, Linfa; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Goldberg, Robert K.

    2004-01-01

    A procedure has been developed to investigate the nonlinear response of composite plates under large strain and high strain rate loading. A recently developed strain dependent micromechanics model is extended to account for the shear effects during impact. Four different assumptions of shear deformation effects are investigated to improve the development strain rate dependent micromechanics model. A method to determine through the thickness strain and transverse Poisson's ratio is developed. The revised micromechanics model is implemented into higher order laminate theory. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate transverse shear effects during impact.

  2. Subalpine Pyrenees received higher nitrogen deposition than predicted by EMEP and CHIMERE chemistry-transport models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boutin, Marion; Lamaze, Thierry; Couvidat, Florian; Pornon, André

    2015-08-01

    Deposition of reactive nitrogen (N) from the atmosphere is expected to be the third greatest driver of biodiversity loss by the year 2100. Chemistry-transport models are essential tools to estimate spatially explicit N deposition but the reliability of their predictions remained to be validated in mountains. We measured N deposition and air concentration over the subalpine Pyrenees. N deposition was found to range from 797 to 1,463 mg N m-2 year-1. These values were higher than expected from model predictions, especially for nitrate, which exceeded the estimations of EMEP by a factor of 2.6 and CHIMERE by 3.6. Our observations also displayed a reversed reduced-to-oxidized ratio in N deposition compared with model predictions. The results highlight that the subalpine Pyrenees are exposed to higher levels of N deposition than expected according to standard predictions and that these levels exceed currently recognized critical loads for most high-elevation habitats. Our study reveals a need to improve the evaluation of N deposition in mountains which are home to a substantial and original part of the world’s biodiversity.

  3. Subalpine Pyrenees received higher nitrogen deposition than predicted by EMEP and CHIMERE chemistry-transport models

    PubMed Central

    Boutin, Marion; Lamaze, Thierry; Couvidat, Florian; Pornon, André

    2015-01-01

    Deposition of reactive nitrogen (N) from the atmosphere is expected to be the third greatest driver of biodiversity loss by the year 2100. Chemistry-transport models are essential tools to estimate spatially explicit N deposition but the reliability of their predictions remained to be validated in mountains. We measured N deposition and air concentration over the subalpine Pyrenees. N deposition was found to range from 797 to 1,463 mg N m−2 year−1. These values were higher than expected from model predictions, especially for nitrate, which exceeded the estimations of EMEP by a factor of 2.6 and CHIMERE by 3.6. Our observations also displayed a reversed reduced-to-oxidized ratio in N deposition compared with model predictions. The results highlight that the subalpine Pyrenees are exposed to higher levels of N deposition than expected according to standard predictions and that these levels exceed currently recognized critical loads for most high-elevation habitats. Our study reveals a need to improve the evaluation of N deposition in mountains which are home to a substantial and original part of the world’s biodiversity. PMID:26255956

  4. ESTER HYDROLYSIS RATE CONSTANT PREDICTION FROM INFRARED INTERFEROGRAMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method for predicting reactivity parameters of organic chemicals from spectroscopic data is being developed to assist in assessing the environmental fate of pollutants. he prototype system, which employs multiple linear regression analysis using selected points from the Fourier...

  5. Predicting Translation Initiation Rates for Designing Synthetic Biology

    PubMed Central

    Reeve, Benjamin; Hargest, Thomas; Gilbert, Charlie; Ellis, Tom

    2013-01-01

    In synthetic biology, precise control over protein expression is required in order to construct functional biological systems. A core principle of the synthetic biology approach is a model-guided design and based on the biological understanding of the process, models of prokaryotic protein production have been described. Translation initiation rate is a rate-limiting step in protein production from mRNA and is dependent on the sequence of the 5′-untranslated region and the start of the coding sequence. Translation rate calculators are programs that estimate protein translation rates based on the sequence of these regions of an mRNA, and as protein expression is proportional to the rate of translation initiation, such calculators have been shown to give good approximations of protein expression levels. In this review, three currently available translation rate calculators developed for synthetic biology are considered, with limitations and possible future progress discussed. PMID:25152877

  6. Cooperative system based on soft computing methods to realize higher precision of computer color recipe prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizutani, Eiji; Takagi, Hideyuki; Auslander, David M.

    1995-04-01

    This paper proposes a combinational model of neural networks (NNs) and a genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain highly precise outputs. Performance of the model is evaluated by application to a computerized color recipe prediction task, which requires relating surface spectral reflectance of a target color to several pigment concentrations. For GA search, first, predictive concentrations of color pigments are initialized by a random initializer, a multi-elite generator based on rules, and an NN which predicts pigment concentrations from the surface spectral reflectance. Then the GA starts searching for more precise pigment concentration vectors depending on a fitness function which is constructed based on three functions: (1) an NN to predict which pigments to use, (2) a rule base to deal with knowledge of color, and (3) an NN to calculate color difference to take into account human visual sensitivity. This hybrid model predicts color pigment concentrations with higher precision by fine-tuning the results of NN approaches. It may possibly show great potential in another precision problem.

  7. Do Higher Sea-cliff Retreat Rates Imply Faster Sea-cliff Retreat?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mushkin, A.; Katz, O.; Porat, N.

    2015-12-01

    Inland retreat of sea cliffs in response to post LGM (last glacial maximum) sea-level rise is an ongoing process that affects coastal environments and communities worldwide. Here, we examine a globally recurring pattern where reported sea-cliff retreat rates since the 20th century often appear to exceed longer-term millennial-scale ('background') rates that rarely exceed ~0.1 m/yr. Focusing on Israel's 30-km-long Mediterranean 'Sharon' sea-cliff as a case study we demonstrate that such apparent increase in rates may also reflect a widely acknowledged sampling bias in geologic rate estimates inferred from observation time windows ('Tobs') shorter than process episodicity. We show that this possible bias leads to an ambiguity in conventional rate estimates obtained by averaging observed retreat distances over Tobs, and that as a result despite ubiquitous and robust observations of cliff retreat since the 20th century (e.g., aerial photographs) recent/current retreat rates for many of the world's episodically retreating sea cliffs remain essentially unknown. To address this present limitation in our ability to detect and quantify recent changes in sea-cliff retreat rates we use airborne LiDAR to measure the continuous wave-driven volumetric erosion of collapsed material from the cliff base as an effective upper-bound constraint for the m/yr rate of episodic retreat of the cliff itself. We find that while conventional retreat rate estimates since the 20th century along the Sharon sea cliff artefactually increase up to several m/yr as an inverse function of Tobs, the LiDAR-constrained retreat rates are not susceptible to this sampling bias, are comparable to the cliff's background retreat rate of 0.03-0.07 m/yr since the mid Holocene and thus indicate no recent acceleration in retreat. This ability to unambiguously constrain sea-cliff retreat rates with annual to decadal-scale observations directly impacts the global-scale push to quantify, better understand and

  8. Significantly Higher Prevalence Rate of Asthma and Bipolar Disorder Co-Morbidity

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Ming-Kung; Wang, Hung-Yu; Chen, Yen-Wen; Lin, Pao-Yen; Wu, Ching-Kuan; Tseng, Ping-Tao

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Asthma and bipolar disorder (BD) are 2 distinct diseases that share similar pathophysiology. This study aimed to determine their relationship thorough a meta-analysis of articles on their comorbidity rate. The aim of the study is to examine the overall prevalence rate of BD in asthmatic patients and of asthma in BD patients compared to healthy controls. Electronic research of PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov was performed. Articles discussing the prevalence rate of BD in patients with/without asthma and the prevalence rate of asthma in those with/without BD, as well as clinical trials in humans and case-controlled trials or cohort studies, were all included. Case reports or series and nonclinical trials were excluded. Through a random-effects model, a meta-analysis of the results of 4 studies comparing the prevalence rate of BD in patients with/without asthma, and in 6 studies comparing the prevalence rate of asthma in subjects with/without BD were performed. There were significantly higher prevalence rates of BD in asthmatic patients than in healthy controls (P < 0.001) and of asthma in BD patients than in healthy controls (P < 0.001). Only the patient's mean age significantly modulated the odds ratio of the prevalence rate of asthma in BD patients (slope = 0.015, P < 0.001). Only 10 studies were included and most were cross-sectional studies. The possible confounding effect of medication on BD or asthma onset was not investigated. Any possible etiology of the comorbidity was also not determined. This meta-analysis highlights the importance of the significantly high comorbid rate of BD and asthma, and the positive association with age. Special attention must be given to the comorbidity of asthma and BD, especially in older patients. PMID:27043688

  9. Background Factors Predicting Teacher Ratings of Children's School Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerr, M. Kaye

    This study examined background factors in children that influence teachers' ratings on the Classroom Adjustment Rating Scale (CARS). Sixteen classrooms in five schools were selected to include a range of socio-economic and cultural groupings from Inner London, England Primary Schools. Teachers used the CARS and an additional short scale of overall…

  10. A Study of the Predictability of School District Bond Ratings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vedra, Kenneth David

    School district bond ratings, issued on request by Standard and Poor's Corporation or Moody's Investors Service, hold implications for school districts' financial management. Ultimately, the bond rating assigned is a factor affecting the total cost of the bond issuance, related to the principal and interest payments over the life of the debt. A…

  11. Predicting Supervisor, Peer, and Self Ratings of Intern Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kegel-Flom, Penelope

    1975-01-01

    Relationships between the ratings of interns by their supervisors, their peers, and the interns themselves on four dimensions are compared and analyzed in relationship to earlier measures of aptitude, achievement, and personality. Findings reported show supervisor ratings to be highest and admission variables to be unrelated to intern performance.…

  12. Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeager, Stephen G.; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan

    2015-12-01

    Coupled climate models initialized from historical climate states and subject to anthropogenic forcings can produce skillful decadal predictions of sea surface temperature change in the subpolar North Atlantic. The skill derives largely from initialization, which improves the representation of slow changes in ocean circulation and associated poleward heat transport. We show that skillful predictions of decadal trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are also possible, particularly in the Atlantic sector. External radiative forcing contributes to the skill of retrospective decadal sea ice predictions, but the spatial and temporal accuracy is greatly enhanced by the more realistic representation of ocean heat transport anomalies afforded by initialization. Recent forecasts indicate that a spin-down of the thermohaline circulation that began near the turn of the century will continue, and this will result in near-neutral decadal trends in Atlantic winter sea ice extent in the coming years, with decadal growth in select regions.

  13. Cellular Microcystin Content in N-Limited Microcystis aeruginosa Can Be Predicted from Growth Rate

    PubMed Central

    Long, Benedict M.; Jones, Gary J.; Orr, Philip T.

    2001-01-01

    Cell quotas of microcystin (QMCYST; femtomoles of MCYST per cell), protein, and chlorophyll a (Chl a), cell dry weight, and cell volume were measured over a range of growth rates in N-limited chemostat cultures of the toxic cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa MASH 01-A19. There was a positive linear relationship between QMCYST and specific growth rate (μ), from which we propose a generalized model that enables QMCYST at any nutrient-limited growth rate to be predicted based on a single batch culture experiment. The model predicts QMCYST from μ, μmax (maximum specific growth rate), QMCYSTmax (maximum cell quota), and QMCYSTmin (minimum cell quota). Under the conditions examined in this study, we predict a QMCYSTmax of 0.129 fmol cell−1 at μmax and a QMCYSTmin of 0.050 fmol cell−1 at μ = 0. Net MCYST production rate (RMCYST) asymptotes to zero at μ = 0 and reaches a maximum of 0.155 fmol cell−1 day−1 at μmax. MCYST/dry weight ratio (milligrams per gram [dry weight]) increased linearly with μ, whereas the MCYST/protein ratio reached a maximum at intermediate μ. In contrast, the MCYST/Chl a ratio remained constant. Cell volume correlated negatively with μ, leading to an increase in intracellular MCYST concentration at high μ. Taken together, our results show that fast-growing cells of N-limited M. aeruginosa are smaller, are of lower mass, and have a higher intracellular MCYST quota and concentration than slow-growing cells. The data also highlight the importance of determining cell MCYST quotas, as potentially confusing interpretations can arise from determining MCYST content as a ratio to other cell components. PMID:11133456

  14. Improved Prediction of Atmospheric Heating and Cooling Rates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bergstrom, R. W.; Kinne, S.; Toon, O. B.

    1991-01-01

    The demands of accurate predictions of radiative transfer for climate applications are well-documented. While much effort is being devoted to evaluating the accuracy of the GCM radiative transfer schemes, the problem of developing accurate, computationally efficient schemes for climate models still remains. This paper discusses our efforts in developing accurate and fast computational methods for global and regional climate models.

  15. Data Collection Ratings and Best Prediction of Lactation Yields

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Best prediction (BP) has been used in the US to calculate lactation yields of milk, fat, protein, and somatic cell score (SCS) from test day data since 1998, when it replaced the test interval method (TIM) used since 1969. It is more complex than TIM but also more accurate, particularly when testing...

  16. Acoustic emission strand burning technique for motor burning rate prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christensen, W. N.

    1978-01-01

    An acoustic emission (AE) method is being used to measure the burning rate of solid propellant strands. This method has a precision of 0.5% and excellent burning rate correlation with both subscale and large rocket motors. The AE procedure burns the sample under water and measures the burning rate from the acoustic output. The acoustic signal provides a continuous readout during testing, which allows complete data analysis rather than the start-stop clockwires used by the conventional method. The AE method helps eliminate such problems as inhibiting the sample, pressure increase and temperature rise, during testing.

  17. Predicting NonInertial Effects with Algebraic Stress Models which Account for Dissipation Rate Anisotropies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jongen, T.; Machiels, L.; Gatski, T. B.

    1997-01-01

    Three types of turbulence models which account for rotational effects in noninertial frames of reference are evaluated for the case of incompressible, fully developed rotating turbulent channel flow. The different types of models are a Coriolis-modified eddy-viscosity model, a realizable algebraic stress model, and an algebraic stress model which accounts for dissipation rate anisotropies. A direct numerical simulation of a rotating channel flow is used for the turbulent model validation. This simulation differs from previous studies in that significantly higher rotation numbers are investigated. Flows at these higher rotation numbers are characterized by a relaminarization on the cyclonic or suction side of the channel, and a linear velocity profile on the anticyclonic or pressure side of the channel. The predictive performance of the three types of models are examined in detail, and formulation deficiencies are identified which cause poor predictive performance for some of the models. Criteria are identified which allow for accurate prediction of such flows by algebraic stress models and their corresponding Reynolds stress formulations.

  18. The Utility of Thin Slice Ratings for Predicting Language Growth in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walton, Katherine M.; Ingersoll, Brooke R.

    2016-01-01

    Literature on "Thin Slice" ratings indicates that a number of personality characteristics and behaviors can be accurately predicted by ratings of very short segments (<5?min) of behavior. This study examined the utility of Thin Slice ratings of young children with autism spectrum disorder for predicting developmental skills and…

  19. Morbidity Rate Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Using the Support Vector Machine and the Aedes aegypti Infection Rate in Similar Climates and Geographical Areas

    PubMed Central

    Kesorn, Kraisak; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Chompoosri, Jakkrawarn; Phumee, Atchara; Thavara, Usavadee; Tawatsin, Apiwat; Siriyasatien, Padet

    2015-01-01

    Background In the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they are applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the support vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate. Methods and Findings Areas with high incidence of dengue outbreaks in central Thailand were studied. The proposed framework consisted of the following three major parts: 1) data integration, 2) model construction, and 3) model evaluation. We discovered that the Ae. aegypti female and larvae mosquito infection rates were significantly positively associated with the morbidity rate. Thus, the increasing infection rate of female mosquitoes and larvae led to a higher number of dengue cases, and the prediction performance increased when those predictors were integrated into a predictive model. In this research, we applied the SVM with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel to forecast the high morbidity rate and take precautions to prevent the development of pervasive dengue epidemics. The experimental results showed that the introduced parameters significantly increased the prediction accuracy to 88.37% when used on the test set data, and these parameters led to the highest performance compared to state-of-the-art forecasting models. Conclusions The infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate parameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured by

  20. Stagnation-point heat-transfer rate predictions at aeroassist flight conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gupta, Roop N.; Jones, Jim J.; Rochelle, William C.

    1992-01-01

    The results are presented for the stagnation-point heat-transfer rates used in the design process of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) vehicle over its entire aeropass trajectory. The prediction methods used in this investigation demonstrate the application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques to a wide range of flight conditions and their usefulness in a design process. The heating rates were computed by a viscous-shock-layer (VSL) code at the lower altitudes and by a Navier-Stokes (N-S) code for the higher altitude cases. For both methods, finite-rate chemically reacting gas was considered, and a temperature-dependent wall-catalysis model was used. The wall temperature for each case was assumed to be radiative equilibrium temperature, based on total heating. The radiative heating was estimated by using a correlation equation. Wall slip was included in the N-S calculation method, and this method implicitly accounts for shock slip. The N-S/VSL combination of projection methods was established by comparison with the published benchmark flow-field code LAURA results at lower altitudes, and the direct simulation Monte Carlo results at higher altitude cases. To obtain the design heating rate over the entire forward face of the vehicle, a boundary-layer method (BLIMP code) that employs reacting chemistry and surface catalysis was used. The ratio of the VSL or N-S method prediction to that obtained from the boundary-layer method code at the stagnation point is used to define an adjustment factor, which accounts for the errors involved in using the boundary-layer method.

  1. Predicting aeolian sand transport rates: A reevaluation of models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherman, Douglas J.; Li, Bailiang

    2012-01-01

    Eight aeolian sand-transport models are evaluated using a field data set and a new approach to estimating shear velocity. The models are those of Bagnold (1937), Kawamura (1951), Zingg (1953), Owen (1964), Kadib (1965), Hsu (1971), Lettau and Lettau (1978) and Sørensen (2004). All of these models predict transport as a function of shear velocity to the third power. Shear velocities are estimated using wind profile data (log-linear slope) with the von Kármán constant and with the apparent von Kármán parameter and the results of the different approaches are evaluated based on comparison of regression statistics and RMS error. The models were not adjusted to account for sediment moisture content or local surface slope effects. All of the models have about the same statistical explanatory power, so evaluations were made by comparing slopes and intercepts of best fit (least-squares) lines and RMSE. From this basis, we conclude that predictions made with the Bagnold (1937) model best match our observations, with the models of Kadib (1965) and Hsu (1971) performing nearly as well. The Lettau and Lettau (1978) and Kawamura (1951) model predictions match observations least.

  2. What Factors Predict Student Self-Rated Physical Health?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vingilis, Evelyn; Wade, Terrance J.; Adlaf, Edward

    1998-01-01

    Data from a randomly selected sample of 840 Ontario students were used to examine factors that affect self-rated physical health. Analyses focused on demographics, family structure, financial situation, child-parent relationship, school achievement, self-esteem, alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use as factors which directly and indirectly influence…

  3. Predicting the College Attendance Rate of Graduating High School Classes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoover, Donald R.

    1990-01-01

    An important element of school counseling is providing assessments on the collective future needs and activities of a graduating school class. The College Attendance Rate (CAR) is defined here as the proportion of seniors graduating from a given high school, during a given year, that will enroll full-time at an academic college sometime during the…

  4. MERGERS IN {Lambda}CDM: UNCERTAINTIES IN THEORETICAL PREDICTIONS AND INTERPRETATIONS OF THE MERGER RATE

    SciTech Connect

    Hopkins, Philip F.; Bundy, Kevin; Wetzel, Andrew; Ma, Chung-Pei; Croton, Darren; Khochfar, Sadegh; Hernquist, Lars; Genel, Shy; Van den Bosch, Frank; Somerville, Rachel S.; Keres, Dusan; Stewart, Kyle; Younger, Joshua D.

    2010-12-01

    Different theoretical methodologies lead to order-of-magnitude variations in predicted galaxy-galaxy merger rates. We examine how this arises and quantify the dominant uncertainties. Modeling of dark matter and galaxy inspiral/merger times contribute factor of {approx}2 uncertainties. Different estimates of the halo-halo merger rate, the subhalo 'destruction' rate, and the halo merger rate with some dynamical friction time delay for galaxy-galaxy mergers, agree to within this factor of {approx}2, provided proper care is taken to define mergers consistently. There are some caveats: if halo/subhalo masses are not appropriately defined the major-merger rate can be dramatically suppressed, and in models with 'orphan' galaxies and under-resolved subhalos the merger timescale can be severely over-estimated. The dominant differences in galaxy-galaxy merger rates between models owe to the treatment of the baryonic physics. Cosmological hydrodynamic simulations without strong feedback and some older semi-analytic models (SAMs), with known discrepancies in mass functions, can be biased by large factors ({approx}5) in predicted merger rates. However, provided that models yield a reasonable match to the total galaxy mass function, the differences in properties of central galaxies are sufficiently small to alone contribute small (factor of {approx}1.5) additional systematics to merger rate predictions. But variations in the baryonic physics of satellite galaxies in models can also have a dramatic effect on merger rates. The well-known problem of satellite 'over-quenching' in most current SAMs-whereby SAM satellite populations are too efficiently stripped of their gas-could lead to order-of-magnitude under-estimates of merger rates for low-mass, gas-rich galaxies. Models in which the masses of satellites are fixed by observations (or SAMs adjusted to resolve this 'over-quenching') tend to predict higher merger rates, but with factor of {approx}2 uncertainties stemming from the

  5. Granular Activated Carbon Treatment May Result in Higher Predicted Genotoxicity in the Presence of Bromide.

    PubMed

    Krasner, Stuart W; Lee, Tiffany Chih Fen; Westerhoff, Paul; Fischer, Natalia; Hanigan, David; Karanfil, Tanju; Beita-Sandí, Wilson; Taylor-Edmonds, Liz; Andrews, Robert C

    2016-09-01

    Certain unregulated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) are more of a health concern than regulated DBPs. Brominated species are typically more cytotoxic and genotoxic than their chlorinated analogs. The impact of granular activated carbon (GAC) on controlling the formation of regulated and selected unregulated DBPs following chlorine disinfection was evaluated. The predicted cyto- and genotoxicity of DBPs was calculated using published potencies based on the comet assay for Chinese hamster ovary cells (assesses the level of DNA strand breaks). Additionally, genotoxicity was measured using the SOS-Chromotest (detects DNA-damaging agents). The class sum concentrations of trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, and unregulated DBPs, and the SOS genotoxicity followed the breakthrough of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), however the formation of brominated species did not. The bromide/DOC ratio was higher than the influent through much of the breakthrough curve (GAC does not remove bromide), which resulted in elevated brominated DBP concentrations in the effluent. Based on the potency of the haloacetonitriles and halonitromethanes, these nitrogen-containing DBPs were the driving agents of the predicted genotoxicity. GAC treatment of drinking or reclaimed waters with appreciable levels of bromide and dissolved organic nitrogen may not control the formation of unregulated DBPs with higher genotoxicity potencies. PMID:27467860

  6. Augmenting data rate performance for higher order modulation in triangular index profile multicore fiber interconnect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Jitendra K.; Priye, Vishnu; Rahman, B. M. A.

    2016-07-01

    A triangular profile multicore fiber (MCF) optical interconnect (OI) is investigated to augment performance that typically degrades at high data rates for higher order modulation in a short reach transmission system. Firstly, probability density functions (PDFs) variation with inter-core crosstalk is calculated for 8-core MCF OI with different index profile in the core and it was observed that the triangular profile MCF OI is the most crosstalk tolerant. Next, symbol error probability (SEP) for higher order quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK) modulated signal due to inter-core crosstalk is analytically obtained and their dependence on typical characteristic parameters are examined. Further, numerical simulations are carried out to compare the error performance of QPSK for step index and triangular index MCF OI by generating eye diagram at 40 Gbps per channel. Finally, it is shown that MCF OI with triangular index profile supporting QPSK has double spectral efficiency with tolerable trade off in SEP as compared with those of binary phase shift keying (BPSK) at high data rates which is scalable up to 5 Tbps.

  7. Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being.

    PubMed

    Ford, Brett Q; Dmitrieva, Julia O; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B

    2015-12-01

    Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, the authors propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed--and thus pursued--in relatively socially engaged ways. In 4 geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (United States, Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants' well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the United States, did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness. PMID:26347945

  8. Predictive Potential of Heart Rate Complexity Measurement: An Indication for Laparotomy Following Solid Organ Injury

    PubMed Central

    Foroutan, Ali; Paydar, Shahram; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Erjaee, Gholamhussian; Bagheri Lankarani, Kamran; Nowroozi, Abbas; Moslemi, Sam

    2015-01-01

    Background: Nonlinear analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has been recently used as a predictor of prognosis in trauma patients. Objectives: We applied nonlinear analysis of HRV in patients with blunt trauma and intraperitoneal bleeding to assess our ability to predict the outcome of conservative management. Patients and Methods: An analysis of electrocardiography (ECG) from 120 patients with blunt trauma was conducted at the onset of admission to the emergency department. ECGs of 65 patients were excluded due to inadequacy of noise-free length. Of the remaining 55 patients, 47 survived (S group) and eight patients died in the hospital (Non-S group). Nineteen patients were found to have intra-abdominal bleeding, eight of which ultimately underwent laparotomy to control bleeding (Op group) and 11 underwent successful non-operative management (non-Op). Demographic data including vital signs, glasgow coma scale (GCS), arterial blood gas and injury severity scores (ISS) were recorded. Heart rate complexity (HRC) methods, including entropy, were used to analyze the ECG. Results: There were no differences in age, gender, heart rate (HR) and blood pressure between the S and Non-S groups. However, approximate entropy, used as a method of HRC measurement, and GCS were significantly higher in S group, compared to the Non-S group. The base deficit and ISS were significantly higher in the Non-S group. Regarding age, sex, ISS, base deficit, vital signs and GCS, no difference was found between Op and Non-Op groups. Approximate entropy was significantly lower in the Op group, compared to the Non-Op group. Conclusions: The loss of HRC at the onset of admission may predict mortality in patients with blunt trauma. Lower entropy, in recently admitted patients with intra-abdominal bleeding, may indicate laparotomy when the vital signs are stable. PMID:26839850

  9. Individuals with higher metabolic rates have lower levels of reactive oxygen species in vivo

    PubMed Central

    Salin, Karine; Auer, Sonya K.; Rudolf, Agata M.; Anderson, Graeme J.; Cairns, Andrew G.; Mullen, William; Hartley, Richard C.; Selman, Colin; Metcalfe, Neil B.

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing interest in the effect of energy metabolism on oxidative stress, but much ambiguity over the relationship between the rate of oxygen consumption and the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Production of ROS (such as hydrogen peroxide, H2O2) in the mitochondria is primarily inferred indirectly from measurements in vitro, which may not reflect actual ROS production in living animals. Here, we measured in vivo H2O2 content using the recently developed MitoB probe that becomes concentrated in the mitochondria of living organisms, where it is converted by H2O2 into an alternative form termed MitoP; the ratio of MitoP/MitoB indicates the level of mitochondrial H2O2 in vivo. Using the brown trout Salmo trutta, we tested whether this measurement of in vivo H2O2 content over a 24 h-period was related to interindividual variation in standard metabolic rate (SMR). We showed that the H2O2 content varied up to 26-fold among fish of the same age and under identical environmental conditions and nutritional states. Interindividual variation in H2O2 content was unrelated to mitochondrial density but was significantly associated with SMR: fish with a higher mass-independent SMR had a lower level of H2O2. The mechanism underlying this observed relationship between SMR and in vivo H2O2 content requires further investigation, but may implicate mitochondrial uncoupling which can simultaneously increase SMR but reduce ROS production. To our knowledge, this is the first study in living organisms to show that individuals with higher oxygen consumption rates can actually have lower levels of H2O2. PMID:26382073

  10. Individuals with higher metabolic rates have lower levels of reactive oxygen species in vivo.

    PubMed

    Salin, Karine; Auer, Sonya K; Rudolf, Agata M; Anderson, Graeme J; Cairns, Andrew G; Mullen, William; Hartley, Richard C; Selman, Colin; Metcalfe, Neil B

    2015-09-01

    There is increasing interest in the effect of energy metabolism on oxidative stress, but much ambiguity over the relationship between the rate of oxygen consumption and the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Production of ROS (such as hydrogen peroxide, H2O2) in the mitochondria is primarily inferred indirectly from measurements in vitro, which may not reflect actual ROS production in living animals. Here, we measured in vivo H2O2 content using the recently developed MitoB probe that becomes concentrated in the mitochondria of living organisms, where it is converted by H2O2 into an alternative form termed MitoP; the ratio of MitoP/MitoB indicates the level of mitochondrial H2O2 in vivo. Using the brown trout Salmo trutta, we tested whether this measurement of in vivo H2O2 content over a 24 h-period was related to interindividual variation in standard metabolic rate (SMR). We showed that the H2O2 content varied up to 26-fold among fish of the same age and under identical environmental conditions and nutritional states. Interindividual variation in H2O2 content was unrelated to mitochondrial density but was significantly associated with SMR: fish with a higher mass-independent SMR had a lower level of H2O2. The mechanism underlying this observed relationship between SMR and in vivo H2O2 content requires further investigation, but may implicate mitochondrial uncoupling which can simultaneously increase SMR but reduce ROS production. To our knowledge, this is the first study in living organisms to show that individuals with higher oxygen consumption rates can actually have lower levels of H2O2. PMID:26382073

  11. Predicting Fruit Fly's Sensing Rate From Insect Flight Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jane; Chang, Song

    2013-11-01

    Without sensory feedbacks, flies cannot fly. Exactly how sensory feedback controls work in flying insects is a complex puzzle to solve. What do insects measure in order to stabilize their flight? What kinds of neural computations and muscle activities are involved in order to correct their flight course or to turn? How often and how fast do animals adjust their wings to remain stable? To understand the algorithms used by insects to control their dynamic instability, we have developed a simulation tool to study flapping flight, where motions of the insect body and wings are coupled instantaneously. To stabilize the flight in the simulation, we construct a control algorithm that modulates wing motion based on discrete measurements of the body-pitch orientation. Our simulations give theoretical bounds both on the sensing rate and the delay time between sensing and actuation. Interpreting these findings together with experimental results on fruit flies' reaction time and sensory motor reflexes, we give a sharper bound on the sensing rate and further reason that fruit flies sense their kinematic states every wing-beat in order to stabilize their flight.

  12. Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production at the LHC in simplified models with s-channel mediators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Backović, Mihailo; Krämer, Michael; Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony; Mawatari, Kentarou; Pellen, Mathieu

    2015-10-01

    Weakly interacting dark matter particles can be pair-produced at colliders and detected through signatures featuring missing energy in association with either QCD/EW radiation or heavy quarks. In order to constrain the mass and the couplings to standard model particles, accurate and precise predictions for production cross sections and distributions are of prime importance. In this work, we consider various simplified models with s-channel mediators. We implement such models in the FeynRules/ MadGraph5_aMC@NLO framework, which allows to include higher-order QCD corrections in realistic simulations and to study their effect systematically. As a first phenomenological application, we present predictions for dark matter production in association with jets and with a top-quark pair at the LHC, at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD, including matching/merging to parton showers. Our study shows that higher-order QCD corrections to dark matter production via s-channel mediators have a significant impact not only on total production rates, but also on shapes of distributions. We also show that the inclusion of next-to-leading order effects results in a sizeable reduction of the theoretical uncertainties.

  13. A polymorphism in the VKORC1-regulator calumenin predicts higher warfarin doses in African-Americans

    PubMed Central

    Voora, D; Koboldt, DC; King, CR; Lenzini, PA; Eby, CS; Porche-Sorbet, R; Deych, E; Crankshaw, M; Milligan, PE; McLeod, HL; Patel, SR; Cavallari, LH; Ridker, PM; Grice, GR; Miller, RD; Gage, BF

    2010-01-01

    Background Warfarin demonstrates wide interindividual variability that is partly mediated by variants in CYP2C9 and VKORC1. Whether variants in CALU (vitamin K reductase regulator) influence warfarin dose is unknown. Methods and Results We resequenced CALU regions in a discovery cohort of dose-outliers: patients with high(>90th percentile, n=55) or low(<10th percentile, n=53) dose requirements(after accounting for known genetic and nongenetic variables). One CALU variant, rs339097, was associated with high-doses(p=0.01). We validated this variant as a predictor of higher warfarin doses in two replication cohorts: 1)496 patients of mixed ethnicity, 2)194 African-American patients. The G allele of rs339097(African-American and Caucasian allele frequency 0.14 and 0.002, respectively), was associated with a 14.5%(SD±7%) greater therapeutic dose(p=0.03) in the first replication cohort and a higher than predicted dose in the second replication cohort(allele frequency=0.14, one-sided p=0.03). Conclusions CALU rs339097 A>G is associated with higher warfarin dose requirements independent of known genetic and nongenetic predictors of warfarin dose in African-Americans. PMID:20200517

  14. Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR) Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation

    PubMed Central

    Papas, Klearchos K.; Bellin, Melena D.; Sutherland, David E. R.; Suszynski, Thomas M.; Kitzmann, Jennifer P.; Avgoustiniatos, Efstathios S.; Gruessner, Angelika C.; Mueller, Kathryn R.; Beilman, Gregory J.; Balamurugan, Appakalai N.; Loganathan, Gopalakrishnan; Colton, Clark K.; Koulmanda, Maria; Weir, Gordon C.; Wilhelm, Josh J.; Qian, Dajun; Niland, Joyce C.; Hering, Bernhard J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR) in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT) insulin independence (II). IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity. Methods Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI), OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA), islet equivalent (IE) and OCR (viable IE) normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose), and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI) were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35). Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001). These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6–12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC) = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose). FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49) and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58) did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72). Conclusions Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations. PMID:26258815

  15. Predicting terrestrial gamma dose rate based on geological and soil information: case study of Perak state, Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Ramli, A T; Apriantoro, N H; Heryansyah, A; Basri, N A; Sanusi, M S M; Abu Hanifah, N Z H

    2016-03-01

    An extensive terrestrial gamma radiation dose (TGRD) rate survey has been conducted in Perak State, Peninsular Malaysia. The survey has been carried out taking into account geological and soil information, involving 2930 in situ surveys. Based on geological and soil information collected during TGRD rate measurements, TGRD rates have been predicted in Perak State using a statistical regression analysis which would be helpful to focus surveys in areas that are difficult to access. An equation was formulated according to a linear relationship between TGRD rates, geological contexts and soil types. The comparison of in situ measurements and predicted TGRD dose rates was tabulated and showed good agreement with the linear regression equation. The TGRD rates in the study area ranged from 38 nGy h(-1) to 1039 nGy h(-1) with a mean value of 224  ±  138 nGy h(-1). This value is higher than the world average as reported in UNSCEAR 2000. The TGRD rates contribute an average dose rate of 1.37 mSv per year. An isodose map for the study area was developed using a Kriging method based on predicted and in situ TGRD rate values. PMID:26583298

  16. Low-Fidelity Polymerases of Alphaviruses Recombine at Higher Rates To Overproduce Defective Interfering Particles

    PubMed Central

    Poirier, Enzo Z.; Mounce, Bryan C.; Rozen-Gagnon, Kathryn; Hooikaas, Peter Jan; Stapleford, Kenneth A.; Moratorio, Gonzalo

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Low-fidelity RNA-dependent RNA polymerases for many RNA virus mutators have been shown to confer attenuated phenotypes, presumably due to increased mutation rates. Additionally, for many RNA viruses, replication to high titers results in the production of defective interfering particles (DIs) that also attenuate infection. We hypothesized that fidelity, recombination, and DI production are tightly linked. We show that a Sindbis virus mutator replicating at a high multiplicity of infection manifests an earlier and greater accumulation of DIs than its wild-type counterpart. The isolated DIs interfere with the replication of full-length virus in a dose-dependent manner. Importantly, the ability of the mutator virus to overproduce DIs could be linked to an increased recombination frequency. These data confirm that RNA-dependent RNA polymerase fidelity and recombination are inversely correlated for this mutator. Our findings suggest that defective interference resulting from higher recombination rates may be more detrimental to RNA virus mutators than the increase in mutational burden. IMPORTANCE Replication, adaptation, and evolution of RNA viruses rely in large part on their low-fidelity RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Viruses artificially modified in their polymerases to decrease fidelity (mutator viruses) are attenuated in vivo, demonstrating the important role of fidelity in viral fitness. However, attenuation was attributed solely to the modification of the viral mutation rate and the accumulation of detrimental point mutations. In this work, we described an additional phenotype of mutator viruses: an increased recombination rate leading to defective interfering particle (DI) overproduction. Because DIs are known for their inhibitory effect on viral replication, our work suggests that fidelity variants may be attenuated in vivo via several mechanisms. This has important implications in the development of fidelity variants as live attenuated vaccine strains

  17. From Plants to Birds: Higher Avian Predation Rates in Trees Responding to Insect Herbivory

    PubMed Central

    Mäntylä, Elina; Alessio, Giorgio A.; Blande, James D.; Heijari, Juha; Holopainen, Jarmo K.; Laaksonen, Toni; Piirtola, Panu; Klemola, Tero

    2008-01-01

    Background An understanding of the evolution of potential signals from plants to the predators of their herbivores may provide exciting examples of co-evolution among multiple trophic levels. Understanding the mechanism behind the attraction of predators to plants is crucial to conclusions about co-evolution. For example, insectivorous birds are attracted to herbivore-damaged trees without seeing the herbivores or the defoliated parts, but it is not known whether birds use cues from herbivore-damaged plants with a specific adaptation of plants for this purpose. Methodology We examined whether signals from damaged trees attract avian predators in the wild and whether birds could use volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions or net photosynthesis of leaves as cues to detect herbivore-rich trees. We conducted a field experiment with mountain birches (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), their main herbivore (Epirrita autumnata) and insectivorous birds. Half of the trees had herbivore larvae defoliating trees hidden inside branch bags and half had empty bags as controls. We measured predation rate of birds towards artificial larvae on tree branches, and VOC emissions and net photosynthesis of leaves. Principal Findings and Significance The predation rate was higher in the herbivore trees than in the control trees. This confirms that birds use cues from trees to locate insect-rich trees in the wild. The herbivore trees had decreased photosynthesis and elevated emissions of many VOCs, which suggests that birds could use either one, or both, as cues. There was, however, large variation in how the VOC emission correlated with predation rate. Emissions of (E)-DMNT [(E)-4,8-dimethyl-1,3,7-nonatriene], β-ocimene and linalool were positively correlated with predation rate, while those of highly inducible green leaf volatiles were not. These three VOCs are also involved in the attraction of insect parasitoids and predatory mites to herbivore-damaged plants, which suggests that

  18. Prediction of reaeration rates in square, stirred tanks

    SciTech Connect

    Rao, A.R.

    1999-03-01

    In the biological treatment of wastewaters, aeration is an important process employed to raise the dissolved oxygen (DO) level to allow aerobic bacteria to reduce biochemical oxygen demand of the effluent and thus to improve the water quality. Experiments were conducted on the oxygen transfer coefficient, k{sub L}a{sub 20}, through surface aeration in geometrically similar square tanks, with a rotor of diameter D fitted with six flat blades. An optimal geometric similarity of various linear dimensions, which produced maximum k{sub L}a{sub 20} for any rotational speed of rotor N by an earlier study, was maintained. A simulation equation uniquely correlating k = k{sub L}a{sub 20}({nu}/g{sup 2}){sup 1/3} ({nu} and g are kinematic viscosity of water and gravitational constant, respectively), and a parameter governing the theoretical power per unit volume, X = N{sup 3}D{sup 2}/(g{sup 4/3}{nu}{sup 1/3}), is developed. Such a simulation equation can be used to predict maximum k for any N in any size of such geometrically similar square tanks. An example illustrating the application of results is presented. Also, it has been established that neither the Reynolds criterion nor the Froude criterion is singularly valid to simulate either k or K = k{sub L}a{sub 20}/N, simultaneously in all the sizes of tanks, even though they re geometrically similar. Occurrence of scale effects due to the Reynolds and the Froude laws of similitude on both k and K are also evaluated.

  19. Predicted Rupture Force of a Single Molecular Bond Becomes Rate Independent at Ultralow Loading Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dechang; Ji, Baohua

    2014-02-01

    We present for the first time a theoretical model of studying the saturation of the rupture force of a single molecular bond that causes the rupture force to be rate independent under an ultralow loading rate. This saturation will obviously bring challenges to understanding the rupture behavior of the molecular bond using conventional methods. This intriguing feature implies that the molecular bond has a nonzero strength at a vanishing loading rate. We find that the saturation behavior is caused by bond rebinding when the loading rate is lower than a limiting value depending on the loading stiffness.

  20. Predicting fruit fly's sensing rate with insect flight simulations.

    PubMed

    Chang, Song; Wang, Z Jane

    2014-08-01

    Without sensory feedback, flies cannot fly. Exactly how various feedback controls work in insects is a complex puzzle to solve. What do insects measure to stabilize their flight? How often and how fast must insects adjust their wings to remain stable? To gain insights into algorithms used by insects to control their dynamic instability, we develop a simulation tool to study free flight. To stabilize flight, we construct a control algorithm that modulates wing motion based on discrete measurements of the body-pitch orientation. Our simulations give theoretical bounds on both the sensing rate and the delay time between sensing and actuation. Interpreting our findings together with experimental results on fruit flies' reaction time and sensory motor reflexes, we conjecture that fruit flies sense their kinematic states every wing beat to stabilize their flight. We further propose a candidate for such a control involving the fly's haltere and first basalar motor neuron. Although we focus on fruit flies as a case study, the framework for our simulation and discrete control algorithms is applicable to studies of both natural and man-made fliers. PMID:25049376

  1. Resting high frequency heart rate variability selectively predicts cooperative behavior.

    PubMed

    Beffara, Brice; Bret, Amélie G; Vermeulen, Nicolas; Mermillod, Martial

    2016-10-01

    This study explores whether the vagal connection between the heart and the brain is involved in prosocial behaviors. The Polyvagal Theory postulates that vagal activity underlies prosocial tendencies. Even if several results suggest that vagal activity is associated with prosocial behaviors, none of them used behavioral measures of prosociality to establish this relationship. We recorded the resting state vagal activity (reflected by High Frequency Heart Rate Variability, HF-HRV) of 48 (42 suitale for analysis) healthy human adults and measured their level of cooperation during a hawk-dove game. We also manipulated the consequence of mutual defection in the hawk-dove game (severe vs. moderate). Results show that HF-HRV is positively and linearly related to cooperation level, but only when the consequence of mutual defection is severe (compared to moderate). This supports that i) prosocial behaviors are likely to be underpinned by vagal functioning ii) physiological disposition to cooperate interacts with environmental context. We discuss these results within the theoretical framework of the Polyvagal Theory. PMID:27343804

  2. Climatological observations and predicted sublimation rates at Lake Hoare, Antarctica.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clow, G.D.; McKay, C.P.; Simmons, G.M., Jr.; Wharton, R.A., Jr.

    1988-01-01

    In December 1985, an automated meteorological station was established at Lake Hoare in the dry valley region of Antarctica. Here, we report on the first year-round observations available for any site in Taylor Valley. This dataset augments the year-round data obtained at Lake Vanda (Wright Valley) by winter-over crews during the late 1960s and early 1970s. The mean annual solar flux at Lake Hoare was 92 W m-2 during 1986, the mean air temperature -17.3 degrees C, and the mean 3-m wind speed 3.3 m s-1. The local climate is controlled by the wind regime during the 4-month sunless winter and by seasonal and diurnal variations in the incident solar flux during the remainder of the year. Temperature increases of 20 degrees-30 degrees C are frequently observed during the winter due to strong fo??hn winds descending from the Polar Plateau. A model incorporating nonsteady molecular diffusion into Kolmogorov-scale eddies in the interfacial layer and similarity-theory flux-profiles in the surface sublayer, is used to determine the rate of ice sublimation from the acquired meteorological data. Despite the frequent occurrence of strong winter fo??hns, the bulk of the annual ablation occurs during the summer due to elevated temperatures and persistent moderate winds. The annual ablation from Lake Hoare is estimated to have been 35.0 +/- 6.3 cm for 1986.

  3. Heart rate variability predicts the emotional state in dogs.

    PubMed

    Katayama, Maki; Kubo, Takatomi; Mogi, Kazutaka; Ikeda, Kazushi; Nagasawa, Miho; Kikusui, Takefumi

    2016-07-01

    Although it is known that heart rate variability (HRV) is a useful indicator of emotional states in animals, there are few reports of research in dogs. Thus, we investigated the relationship between HRV and emotional states in dogs. The electrocardiogram and behavior in two situations that elicited a positive and negative emotion, in addition to baseline (when dogs were not presented any social stimuli), were recorded in 33 healthy house dogs. After testing, we chose 15seconds from each situation and baseline and calculated three HRV parameters: standard deviation of normal-to-normal R-R intervals (SDNN), the root mean square of successive heartbeat interval differences (RMSSD), and mean R-R intervals (mean RRI). In comparing these parameters with baseline, only SDNN was lower in a positive situation. In contrast, only RMSSD was lower in a negative situation. A change in HRV occurred with a stimulus eliciting emotion, and was able to distinguish between positive and negative situations. Thus, HRV is useful for estimating the emotional state in dogs. PMID:27129806

  4. Higher-order Lie symmetries in identifiability and predictability analysis of dynamic models.

    PubMed

    Merkt, Benjamin; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

    2015-07-01

    Parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has manifold applications not only in physics but also in the life sciences. When estimating the ODE parameters from experimentally observed data, the modeler is frequently concerned with the question of parameter identifiability. The source of parameter nonidentifiability is tightly related to Lie group symmetries. In the present work, we establish a direct search algorithm for the determination of admitted Lie group symmetries. We clarify the relationship between admitted symmetries and parameter nonidentifiability. The proposed algorithm is applied to illustrative toy models as well as a data-based ODE model of the NFκB signaling pathway. We find that besides translations and scaling transformations also higher-order transformations play a role. Enabled by the knowledge about the explicit underlying symmetry transformations, we show how models with nonidentifiable parameters can still be employed to make reliable predictions. PMID:26274260

  5. Higher-order Lie symmetries in identifiability and predictability analysis of dynamic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkt, Benjamin; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

    2015-07-01

    Parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has manifold applications not only in physics but also in the life sciences. When estimating the ODE parameters from experimentally observed data, the modeler is frequently concerned with the question of parameter identifiability. The source of parameter nonidentifiability is tightly related to Lie group symmetries. In the present work, we establish a direct search algorithm for the determination of admitted Lie group symmetries. We clarify the relationship between admitted symmetries and parameter nonidentifiability. The proposed algorithm is applied to illustrative toy models as well as a data-based ODE model of the NFκ B signaling pathway. We find that besides translations and scaling transformations also higher-order transformations play a role. Enabled by the knowledge about the explicit underlying symmetry transformations, we show how models with nonidentifiable parameters can still be employed to make reliable predictions.

  6. Higher Self-Control Capacity Predicts Lower Anxiety-Impaired Cognition during Math Examinations

    PubMed Central

    Bertrams, Alex; Baumeister, Roy F.; Englert, Chris

    2016-01-01

    We assumed that self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem would enable students to keep attentional control during tests. Therefore, we hypothesized that the three personality traits would be negatively related to anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations. Secondary school students (N = 158) completed measures of self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at the beginning of the school year. Five months later, anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations was assessed. Higher self-control capacity, but neither self-efficacy nor self-esteem, predicted lower anxiety-impaired cognition 5 months later, over and above baseline anxiety-impaired cognition. Moreover, self-control capacity was indirectly related to math grades via anxiety-impaired cognition. The findings suggest that improving self-control capacity may enable students to deal with anxiety-related problems during school tests. PMID:27065013

  7. Higher order QCD predictions for associated Higgs production with anomalous couplings to gauge bosons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mimasu, Ken; Sanz, Verónica; Williams, Ciaran

    2016-08-01

    We present predictions for the associated production of a Higgs boson at NLO+PS accuracy, including the effect of anomalous interactions between the Higgs and gauge bosons. We present our results in different frameworks, one in which the interaction vertex between the Higgs boson and Standard Model W and Z bosons is parameterized in terms of general Lorentz structures, and one in which Electroweak symmetry breaking is manifestly linear and the resulting operators arise through a six-dimensional effective field theory framework. We present analytic calculations of the Standard Model and Beyond the Standard Model contributions, and discuss the phenomenological impact of the higher order pieces. Our results are implemented in the NLO Monte Carlo program MCFM, and interfaced to shower Monte Carlos through the Powheg box framework.

  8. Higher Self-Control Capacity Predicts Lower Anxiety-Impaired Cognition during Math Examinations.

    PubMed

    Bertrams, Alex; Baumeister, Roy F; Englert, Chris

    2016-01-01

    We assumed that self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem would enable students to keep attentional control during tests. Therefore, we hypothesized that the three personality traits would be negatively related to anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations. Secondary school students (N = 158) completed measures of self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at the beginning of the school year. Five months later, anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations was assessed. Higher self-control capacity, but neither self-efficacy nor self-esteem, predicted lower anxiety-impaired cognition 5 months later, over and above baseline anxiety-impaired cognition. Moreover, self-control capacity was indirectly related to math grades via anxiety-impaired cognition. The findings suggest that improving self-control capacity may enable students to deal with anxiety-related problems during school tests. PMID:27065013

  9. Predicting secondary organic aerosol formation rates in southeast Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russell, Matthew; Allen, David T.

    2005-04-01

    Rates of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, due to the reactions of aromatics and monoterpenes, were estimated for southeast Texas by incorporating a modified version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center's chemical mechanism (SAPRC99) into the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx version 3.10). The model included explicit representation of the reactions of five SOA precursors (α-pinene, β-pinene, sabinene, d-limonene, and Δ3-carene). Reactions of each SOA precursor with O3, OH radical, and NO3 radical were included. The model also included separate reactions for low- and high-SOA-yield aromatic groups with the OH radical. SOA yields in the mechanisms were estimated using compound-specific yield information (ΔSOA/ΔHC) derived from smog chamber experiments conducted by J. R. Odum and colleagues and R. J. Griffin and colleagues. The form of the SOA yield model was based on the work of J. R. Odum and colleagues and is a function of existing organic aerosol concentrations. Existing organic aerosol concentrations were estimated on the basis of ambient measurements of total organic carbon in southeast Texas. The reactions of monoterpenes (predominantly α-pinene and β-pinene) with ozone led to the most regional SOA formation, followed by monoterpenes with the nitrate radical. Aromatic-OH reactions led to less regional SOA formation compared to monoterpenes; however, this formation occurs close to the urban and industrial areas of Houston. In contrast, SOA formation due to the reactions of monoterpenes occurred in the forested areas north of the urban area. The results of this study are in qualitative agreement with estimates of SOA formation based on ambient data from the same time period.

  10. Strategies Associated with Higher Postpartum Glucose Tolerance Screening Rates for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Patients

    PubMed Central

    Ko, Jean Y.; Dietz, Patricia M.; Conrey, Elizabeth J.; Rodgers, Loren E.; Shellhaas, Cynthia; Farr, Sherry L.; Robbins, Cheryl L.

    2016-01-01

    Background Most women with histories of gestational diabetes mellitus do not receive a postpartum screening test for type 2 diabetes, even though they are at increased risk. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with high rates of postpartum glucose screening. Methods This cross-sectional analysis assessed characteristics associated with postpartum diabetes screening for patients with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM)-affected pregnancies self-reported by randomly sampled licensed obstetricians/gynecologists (OBs/GYNs) in Ohio in 2010. Results Responses were received from 306 OBs/GYNs (56.5% response rate), among whom 69.9% reported frequently (always/most of the time) screening women with GDM-affected pregnancies for abnormal glucose tolerance at the postpartum visit. Compared to infrequent screeners, OBs/GYNs who frequently screen for postpartum glucose tolerance were statistically (p < 0.05) more likely to have a clinical protocol addressing postpartum testing (67.2% vs. 26.7%), an electronic reminder system for providers (10.8% vs. 2.2%) and provide reminders to patients (16.4% vs. 4.4%). Frequent screeners were more likely to use recommended fasting blood glucose or 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (61.8% vs. 34.6%, p < 0.001) than infrequent screeners. Conclusions Strategies associated with higher postpartum glucose screening for GDM patients included clinical protocols for postpartum testing, electronic medical records to alert providers of the need for testing, and reminders to patients. PMID:23789581

  11. College Going Rates: A Performance Measure in California's Higher Education Accountability Framework. Commission Report 07-04

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California Postsecondary Education Commission, 2007

    2007-01-01

    As part of its work in developing an accountability framework for higher education, the Commission conducted an analysis of college-going rates in California. This analysis showed that: (1) California has serious inequities in access to higher education. College-going rates vary greatly depending on students' ethnicity, gender, and the type of…

  12. Prediction of Human Glomerular Filtration Rate from Preterm Neonates to Adults: Evaluation of Predictive Performance of Several Empirical Models.

    PubMed

    Mahmood, Iftekhar; Staschen, Carl-Michael

    2016-03-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of several allometric empirical models (body weight dependent, age dependent, fixed exponent 0.75, a data-dependent single exponent, and maturation models) to predict glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in preterm and term neonates, infants, children, and adults without any renal disease. In this analysis, the models were developed from GFR data obtained from inulin clearance (preterm neonates to adults; n = 93) and the predictive performance of these models were evaluated in 335 subjects (preterm neonates to adults). The primary end point was the prediction of GFR from the empirical allometric models and the comparison of the predicted GFR with measured GFR. A prediction error within ±30% was considered acceptable. Overall, the predictive performance of the four models (BDE, ADE, and two maturation models) for the prediction of mean GFR was good across all age groups but the prediction of GFR in individual healthy subjects especially in neonates and infants was erratic and may be clinically unacceptable. PMID:26801317

  13. Predicting METs from the heart rate index in persons with Down syndrome.

    PubMed

    Agiovlasitis, Stamatis; Rossow, Lindy M; Yan, Huimin; Ranadive, Sushant M; Fahs, Christopher A; Motl, Robert W; Fernhall, Bo

    2014-10-01

    Persons with Down syndrome (DS) have altered heart rate modulation and very low aerobic fitness. These attributes may impact the relationship between metabolic equivalent units (METs) and the heart rate index (HRindex-the ratio between heart rate during activity and resting heart rate), thereby altering the HRindex thresholds for moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity. This study examined whether the relationship between METs and HRindex differs between persons with and without DS and attempted to develop thresholds for activity intensity based on the HRindex for persons with DS. METs were measured with portable spirometry and heart rate with a monitor in 18 persons with DS (25 ± 7 years; 10 women) and 18 persons without DS (26 ± 5 years; 10 women) during 6 over-ground walking trials, each lasting 6min, at the preferred walking speed and at 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.25, and 1.5m/s. The relationship between METs and HRindex in the two groups was analyzed with multi-level modeling with random intercepts and slopes. Group, HRindex, and the square of HRindex were significant predictors of METs (p<0.001; R(2)=0.65). Absolute percent error did not differ significantly between groups across speeds (DS: 19.6 ± 14.4%; non-DS: 21.0 ± 14.5%). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated somewhat greater variability in the difference between actual and predicted METs in participants with than without DS. The HRindex threshold for moderate-intensity activity was 1.32 and 1.20 for persons with and without DS, respectively. The HRindex threshold for vigorous-intensity activity was 1.80 and 1.65 for persons with and without DS, respectively. Persons with DS have an altered relationship between METs and HRindex and higher HRindex thresholds for moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity. PMID:24981191

  14. Construct and Predictive Validity of Social Acceptability: Scores From High School Teacher Ratings on the School Intervention Rating Form

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Judith R.; State, Talida M.; Evans, Steven W.; Schamberg, Terah

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the construct and predictive validity of scores on a measure of social acceptability of class-wide and individual student intervention, the School Intervention Rating Form (SIRF), with high school teachers. Utilizing scores from 158 teachers, exploratory factor analysis revealed a three-factor (i.e.,…

  15. Nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates and higher multipole excitations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirolf, P. G.; Habs, D.; Filipescu, D.; Gernhäuser, R.; Günther, M. M.; Jentschel, M.; Marginean, N.; Pietralla, N.

    2012-07-01

    Next-generation γ beams from laser Compton-backscattering facilities like ELI-NP (Bucharest)] or MEGa-Ray (Livermore) will drastically exceed the photon flux presently available at existing facilities, reaching or even exceeding 1013 γ/sec. The beam structure as presently foreseen for MEGa-Ray and ELI-NP builds upon a structure of macro-pulses (˜120 Hz) for the electron beam, accelerated with X-band technology at 11.5 GHz, resulting in a micro structure of 87 ps distance between the electron pulses acting as mirrors for a counterpropagating intense laser. In total each 8.3 ms a γ pulse series with a duration of about 100 ns will impinge on the target, resulting in an instantaneous photon flux of about 1018 γ/s, thus introducing major challenges in view of pile-up. Novel γ optics will be applied to monochromatize the γ beam to ultimately ΔE/E˜10-6. Thus level-selective spectroscopy of higher multipole excitations will become accessible with good contrast for the first time. Fast responding γ detectors, e.g. based on advanced scintillator technology (e.g. LaBr3(Ce)) allow for measurements with count rates as high as 106-107 γ/s without significant drop of performance. Data handling adapted to the beam conditions could be performed by fast digitizing electronics, able to sample data traces during the micro-pulse duration, while the subsequent macro-pulse gap of ca. 8 ms leaves ample time for data readout. A ball of LaBr3 detectors with digital readout appears to best suited for this novel type of nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates.

  16. Nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates and higher multipole excitations

    SciTech Connect

    Thirolf, P. G.; Habs, D.; Filipescu, D.; Gernhaeuser, R.; Guenther, M. M.; Jentschel, M.; Marginean, N.; Pietralla, N.

    2012-07-09

    Next-generation {gamma} beams from laser Compton-backscattering facilities like ELI-NP (Bucharest)] or MEGa-Ray (Livermore) will drastically exceed the photon flux presently available at existing facilities, reaching or even exceeding 10{sup 13}{gamma}/sec. The beam structure as presently foreseen for MEGa-Ray and ELI-NP builds upon a structure of macro-pulses ({approx}120 Hz) for the electron beam, accelerated with X-band technology at 11.5 GHz, resulting in a micro structure of 87 ps distance between the electron pulses acting as mirrors for a counterpropagating intense laser. In total each 8.3 ms a {gamma} pulse series with a duration of about 100 ns will impinge on the target, resulting in an instantaneous photon flux of about 10{sup 18}{gamma}/s, thus introducing major challenges in view of pile-up. Novel {gamma} optics will be applied to monochromatize the {gamma} beam to ultimately {Delta}E/E{approx}10{sup -6}. Thus level-selective spectroscopy of higher multipole excitations will become accessible with good contrast for the first time. Fast responding {gamma} detectors, e.g. based on advanced scintillator technology (e.g. LaBr{sub 3}(Ce)) allow for measurements with count rates as high as 10{sup 6}-10{sup 7}{gamma}/s without significant drop of performance. Data handling adapted to the beam conditions could be performed by fast digitizing electronics, able to sample data traces during the micro-pulse duration, while the subsequent macro-pulse gap of ca. 8 ms leaves ample time for data readout. A ball of LaBr{sub 3} detectors with digital readout appears to best suited for this novel type of nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates.

  17. Non-culprit coronary lesions in young patients have higher rates of atherosclerotic progression.

    PubMed

    Li, Jiantao; Han, Yunfeng; Jing, Jing; Tu, Shengxian; Chen, Weiren; Reiber, Johan H C; Chen, Yundai

    2015-06-01

    The present study aimed to investigate whether non-culprit coronary lesions (NCCLs) in young patients (<45 years) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with stents have higher rates of atherosclerotic progression than older patients. Eight hundred and forty-eight consecutive patients who underwent successful PCI with stents and second coronary angiography in a single center from January 7, 2008 to May 7, 2013 were enrolled. NCCL progression was assessed using three-dimensional quantitative coronary angiography and was defined as ≥ 10% diameter reduction of preexisting stenoses of ≥ 50%, ≥ 30% diameter reduction of <50% stenoses, development of a new stenosis of ≥ 30% in a previously normal segment, or progression to total occlusion. The mean time interval between two catheterization was 10.79 months; 136 (16.0%) patients exhibited progression of NCCLs. Multivariate Cox regression analysis (stepwise) showed young age to be an independent determinant of NCCL progression. Compared with the older patients(≥ 45 years), the crude hazard ratio (HR) for NCCL progression in the young patients(<45 years) was 2.17 (95% CI 1.42-3.30; P < 0.001); the association remained significant after adjustment for sex, ST elevation myocardial infarction, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, serum lipids, fasting blood glucose, smoking, drinking, hypertension, family history of coronary heart disease, diabetes mellitus, medication use and NCCL characteristics (adjusted HR 1.70, 95% CI 1.06-2.72; P = 0.029). NCCLs in young patients (<45 years) with coronary artery disease have high rates of atherosclerotic progression. PMID:25749848

  18. Epidural insertion simulator of higher insertion resistance & drop rate after puncture.

    PubMed

    Naemura, K; Sakai, A; Hayashi, T; Saito, H

    2008-01-01

    Accidents such as dural puncture remain one of the problems of epidural anesthesia, and unskilled doctors can repeat such accidents. The purpose of the current research was to provide a new simulator for epidural insertion training. No reference data regarding the resistance force used when inserting a needle into patients have been reported. A comparative study was conducted to aid in the development of a new simulator. Pork loin (n=5) were employed as a substitute for patients. Thickness was set at 2 cm so as to improve the reproducibility. The authors took the conventional simulator apart, and picked a block as an analogue of muscle and ligamentum flavum. A new simulator was made of a melamine foam resin block and a latex rubber sheet. An epidural needle fixed on a motorized stage was inserted at the speed of 2 mm per second. The reaction force was measured while the needle was inserted into each specimen. Waveform of the pork loin exhibited two slopes of different inclines up to peaks and then falls after puncture. The conventional simulator showed a simple increase up to peak and a slow fall after puncture. In contrast, the new simulator showed two slopes up to peak and then a sudden fall after puncture. The insertion resistances were 2.5 N/s for the porcine, 0.8 N/s for the conventional and 2.1 N/s for the new simulator. The drop rates were 5 N/s for the porcine, 0.6 N/s for the conventional and 24 N/s for the new simulator. The higher insertion resistance and drop rate for the new simulator than the conventional simulator will be suitable for epidural insertion training. PMID:19163400

  19. Student and Teacher Ratings of Instructional Quality: Consistency of Ratings over Time, Agreement, and Predictive Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagner, Wolfgang; Göllner, Richard; Werth, Sarah; Voss, Thamar; Schmitz, Bernhard; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Prior research has shown that the agreement between teacher and student ratings of instructional quality is, at best, moderate, and the associations between measures of instructional quality and outcomes such as standardized achievement are typically small and somewhat mixed across both perspectives. One explanation for these low-to-moderate…

  20. Relative in vitro growth rates of duckweeds (Lemnaceae) - the most rapidly growing higher plants.

    PubMed

    Ziegler, P; Adelmann, K; Zimmer, S; Schmidt, C; Appenroth, K-J

    2015-01-01

    Relative growth rates (RGR), doubling times (DT) and relative weekly yields (RY) of 39 clones (ecotypes) from 13 species representing all five genera of duckweeds were determined under standardised cultivation conditions. RGR ranged overall from 0.153 to 0.519 day(-1) , DT from 1.34 to 4.54 days and RY from 2.9 to 37.8 week(-1) . The RGR and RY data can be compared directly to other published findings to only a limited extent on account of missing clonal designations for and limited accessibility to previously investigated clones, as well as the use of different data denominators. However, they are consistent with the published results of other comparative duckweed studies of similar scope in showing that RGR does not vary primarily at the level of the genus or species, but rather reflects the adaptation of individual clones to specific local conditions. The RGR data support the widely held assumption that duckweeds can grow faster than other higher plants and that they can thus surpass land-based agricultural crops in productivity. Duckweeds are highly promising for the production of biomass for nutrition and energy, but extensive clonal comparison will be required to identify the most suitable isolates for this purpose. PMID:24803032

  1. A strong pelvic floor is associated with higher rates of sexual activity in women with pelvic floor disorders

    PubMed Central

    Kanter, Gregg; Rogers, Rebecca G; Pauls, Rachel N; Kammerer-Doak, Dorothy; Thakar, Ranee

    2015-01-01

    Introduction and Hypothesis We evaluated the associations between pelvic floor muscle strength and tone with sexual activity and sexual function in women with pelvic floor disorders. Methods This was a secondary analysis of a multicenter study of women with pelvic floor disorders from the US and UK performed to validate the Pelvic Organ Prolapse/Incontinence Sexual Questionnaire, IUGA-Revised (PISQ-IR). Participants were surveyed about whether they were sexually active and completed the PISQ-IR and Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) questionnaires to assess sexual function. Physical exams included assessment of pelvic floor strength by the Oxford Grading Scale, and assessment of pelvic floor tone per ICS guidelines. Results The cohort of 585 women was middle aged (mean age 54.9 +/−12.1) with 395 (67.5%) reporting sexual activity. Women with a strong pelvic floor (n=275) were more likely to report sexual activity than women with weak strength (n=280) (75.3 vs. 61.8%, p<0.001), but normal or hypoactive pelvic floor tone was not associated with sexual activity (68.8 vs. 60.2%, normal vs. hypoactive, p=0.08). After multivariable analysis, a strong pelvic floor remained predictive of sexual activity (OR 1.89, CI 1.18–3.03, p<0.01). Among sexually active women (n=370), a strong pelvic floor was associated with higher scores on the PISQ-IR domain of condition impact (Parameter Estimate 0.20+/−0.09, P=0.04), and FSFI orgasm domain (PE 0.51+/−0.17, P=0.004). Conclusion A strong pelvic floor is associated with higher rates of sexual activity as well as higher sexual function scores on the condition impact domain of the PISQ-IR and orgasm domain of the FSFI. PMID:25994625

  2. Verifying the performance of artificial neural network and multiple linear regression in predicting the mean seasonal municipal solid waste generation rate: A case study of Fars province, Iran.

    PubMed

    Azadi, Sama; Karimi-Jashni, Ayoub

    2016-02-01

    Predicting the mass of solid waste generation plays an important role in integrated solid waste management plans. In this study, the performance of two predictive models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) was verified to predict mean Seasonal Municipal Solid Waste Generation (SMSWG) rate. The accuracy of the proposed models is illustrated through a case study of 20 cities located in Fars Province, Iran. Four performance measures, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and R were used to evaluate the performance of these models. The MLR, as a conventional model, showed poor prediction performance. On the other hand, the results indicated that the ANN model, as a non-linear model, has a higher predictive accuracy when it comes to prediction of the mean SMSWG rate. As a result, in order to develop a more cost-effective strategy for waste management in the future, the ANN model could be used to predict the mean SMSWG rate. PMID:26482809

  3. Putative extremely high rate of proteome innovation in lancelets might be explained by high rate of gene prediction errors

    PubMed Central

    Bányai, László; Patthy, László

    2016-01-01

    A recent analysis of the genomes of Chinese and Florida lancelets has concluded that the rate of creation of novel protein domain combinations is orders of magnitude greater in lancelets than in other metazoa and it was suggested that continuous activity of transposable elements in lancelets is responsible for this increased rate of protein innovation. Since morphologically Chinese and Florida lancelets are highly conserved, this finding would contradict the observation that high rates of protein innovation are usually associated with major evolutionary innovations. Here we show that the conclusion that the rate of proteome innovation is exceptionally high in lancelets may be unjustified: the differences observed in domain architectures of orthologous proteins of different amphioxus species probably reflect high rates of gene prediction errors rather than true innovation. PMID:27476717

  4. 5 CFR 591.104 - Higher initial maximum uniform allowance rate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... rate. 591.104 Section 591.104 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE... rate. (a) The head of an agency may establish one or more initial maximum uniform allowance rates greater than the Governmentwide maximum uniform allowance rate established under § 591.103. (b) A...

  5. 5 CFR 591.104 - Higher initial maximum uniform allowance rate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... rate. 591.104 Section 591.104 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE... rate. (a) The head of an agency may establish one or more initial maximum uniform allowance rates greater than the Governmentwide maximum uniform allowance rate established under § 591.103. (b) A...

  6. 5 CFR 591.104 - Higher initial maximum uniform allowance rate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... rate. 591.104 Section 591.104 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE... rate. (a) The head of an agency may establish one or more initial maximum uniform allowance rates greater than the Governmentwide maximum uniform allowance rate established under § 591.103. (b) A...

  7. 5 CFR 591.104 - Higher initial maximum uniform allowance rate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... rate. 591.104 Section 591.104 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE... rate. (a) The head of an agency may establish one or more initial maximum uniform allowance rates greater than the Governmentwide maximum uniform allowance rate established under § 591.103. (b) A...

  8. 5 CFR 591.104 - Higher initial maximum uniform allowance rate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... rate. 591.104 Section 591.104 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE... rate. (a) The head of an agency may establish one or more initial maximum uniform allowance rates greater than the Governmentwide maximum uniform allowance rate established under § 591.103. (b) A...

  9. Predicting self-rated mental and physical health: the contributions of subjective socioeconomic status and personal relative deprivation

    PubMed Central

    Callan, Mitchell J.; Kim, Hyunji; Matthews, William J.

    2015-01-01

    Lower subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) and higher personal relative deprivation (PRD) relate to poorer health. Both constructs concern people's perceived relative social position, but they differ in their emphasis on the reference groups people use to determine their comparative disadvantage (national population vs. similar others) and the importance of resentment that may arise from such adverse comparisons. We investigated the relative utility of SSS and PRD as predictors of self-rated physical and mental health (e.g., self-rated health, stress, health complaints). Across six studies, self-rated physical and mental health were on the whole better predicted by measures of PRD than by SSS while controlling for objective socioeconomic status (SES), with SSS rarely contributing unique variance over and above PRD and SES. Studies 4–6 discount the possibility that the superiority of PRD over SSS in predicting health is due to psychometric differences (e.g., reliability) or response biases between the measures. PMID:26441786

  10. An Interactive Point Kernel Program For Photon Dose Rate Prediction of Cylindrical Source/Shield Arrangements.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1990-10-26

    Version 00 The program ZYLIND is an interactive point kernel program for photon dose rate prediction of a homogeneous cylindrical source shielded by cylindrical (radial) or plane (axial) layered shields.

  11. ANN Models for Prediction of Sound and Penetration Rate in Percussive Drilling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kivade, Sangshetty B.; Murthy, Chivukula Surya Naryana; Vardhan, Harsha

    2015-10-01

    In the recent years, new techniques such as; Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were employed for developing of the predictive models to estimate the needed parameters. Soft computing techniques are now being used as alternate statistical tool. In this study, ANN models were developed to predict rock properties of sedimentary rock, by using penetration and sound level produced during percussive drilling. The data generated in the laboratory investigation was utilized for the development of ANN models for predicting rock properties like, uniaxial compressive strength, abrasivity, tensile strength, and Schmidt rebound number using air pressure, thrust, bit diameter, penetration rate and sound level. Further, ANN models were also developed for predicting penetration rate and sound level using air pressure, thrust, bit diameter and rock properties as input parameters. The constructed models were checked using various prediction performance indices. ANN models were more acceptable for predicting rock properties.

  12. The utility of Thin Slice ratings for predicting language growth in children with autism spectrum disorder.

    PubMed

    Walton, Katherine M; Ingersoll, Brooke R

    2016-04-01

    Literature on "Thin Slice" ratings indicates that a number of personality characteristics and behaviors can be accurately predicted by ratings of very short segments (<5 min) of behavior. This study examined the utility of Thin Slice ratings of young children with autism spectrum disorder for predicting developmental skills and language gains over time. A total of 22 preschool-aged children with autism spectrum disorder participated in a battery of developmental assessments and a video-taped therapist-child interaction at Time 1. They then participated in follow-up testing of language skills and a second therapist-child interaction 6 months later (Time 2). Groups of approximately 25 naïve undergraduate students provided impression ratings ("Thin Slice ratings") about each child's skills and behaviors during 2-min segments taken from the therapist-child interaction videos at each time point. Thin Slice ratings at Time 1 were highly correlated with child scores on several developmental assessments at Time 1. In addition, Thin Slice ratings at Time 1 predicted gain in parent-reported expressive vocabulary over the course of 6 months, over and above the predictive utility of Time 1 vocabulary size. These findings provide preliminary evidence for the concurrent and predictive validity of Thin Slice ratings in young children with autism spectrum disorder. PMID:25991846

  13. Heating Rate Sensitive Multi-Shape Memory Polypropylene: A Predictive Material.

    PubMed

    Hoeher, Robin; Raidt, Thomas; Katzenberg, Frank; Tiller, Joerg C

    2016-06-01

    Here we report on a novel type of smart material that is capable of specifically responding to the changing rate of an environmental signal. This is shown on the example of lightly cross-linked syndiotactic polypropylene that reacts to a temperature increase by adapting its shape change according to the applied heating rate. In general, a material with such properties can be used to predict a system failure when used in a defined environment and is therefore called "predictive material". PMID:27203229

  14. A Prediction Model for Community Colleges Using Graduation Rate as the Performance Indicator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moosai, Susan

    2010-01-01

    In this thesis a prediction model using graduation rate as the performance indicator is obtained for community colleges for three cohort years, 2003, 2004, and 2005 in the states of California, Florida, and Michigan. Multiple Regression analysis, using an aggregate of seven predictor variables, was employed in determining this prediction model.…

  15. Higher Rates of Misdiagnosis in Pediatric Patients versus Adults Hospitalized with Imported Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Arguin, Paul M.; Daily, Johanna P.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Despite the availability of effective anti-malarial prophylaxis, imported adult and pediatric malaria occurs in the United States and this can pose diagnostic issues. We examined the clinical characteristics and diagnostic challenges of imported malaria requiring adult or pediatric inpatient admission at Montefiore Medical Center (MMC) in the Bronx which provides care for a large population of immigrants from malaria endemic areas. Study Design We conducted a retrospective single center review of patients admitted with a diagnosis of malaria at MMC from 2005 through 2012. We extracted historical, clinical, and laboratory values from the electronic medical record and patient charts. Results We identified 95 patients who were diagnosed and hospitalized with malaria from 2005–2012, 33 (35%) of them children and 17 (18%) with severe malaria. Most patients contracted malaria while visiting friends and relatives (VFR) in West Africa. Only 38% of travelers took prophylaxis, and fewer than half reported taking it as prescribed. Misdiagnosis by emergency room or primary care doctors was observed in almost one quarter of all of the patients. Misdiagnosis occurred significantly more frequently in children (43%) compared to adults (13%) (p=0.002). Pediatric patients were more likely to present with abdominal pain (42% vs 15%, p=0.005). Conclusions Pediatric patients admitted for imported malaria at MMC had a higher rate of misdiagnosis and presented with more gastrointestinal symptoms than hospitalized adults. By describing the clinical characteristics of patients with imported malaria, we hope to improve diagnostic accuracy by healthcare workers and raise awareness that VFRs may require more intensive pre-travel counseling. PMID:25322145

  16. Bit-rate prediction for look-ahead coding with AVC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beermann, Markus

    2004-01-01

    Compression of digitized video highly depends on, and varies with, the signal to be compressed. The relation of quantizer, distortion and rate needs to be modeled when control in a system involving video compression is asked for. An experimental analysis of the optimized video codec AVC of ITU-T and MPEG shows that its rate behavior can be modeled accurately enough to predict bit-rate on macroblock-level. Given information of allocated rates from a pre-encoding analysis step, the bit-rate profile at any different quantizer setting for the video can be predicted. Experiments, comparing predicted rate against actual encoding rate show good performance of the model.These reflect the performance of the model in rate-control schemes. A simple example pre-analysis rate-control based on the model will determine beforehand a possible rate-profile that the actual encoding should be able to follow with small quality variations. For a signal of varying complexity, a varying number of bits will be used to obtain constant quality. Such variations are limited by peak bit-rates and buffer-sizes that are defined by hypothetical reference decoders in AVC.

  17. Harnessing atomistic simulations to predict the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saroukhani, S.; Nguyen, L. D.; Leung, K. W. K.; Singh, C. V.; Warner, D. H.

    2016-05-01

    Predicting the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles is key to understanding the microscopic features that govern the plastic flow of modern alloys. In this spirit, the current manuscript examines the rate at which an edge dislocation overcomes an obstacle in aluminum. Predictions were made using different popular variants of Harmonic Transition State Theory (HTST) and compared to those of direct Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. The HTST predictions were found to be grossly inaccurate due to the large entropy barrier associated with the dislocation-obstacle interaction. Considering the importance of finite temperature effects, the utility of the Finite Temperature String (FTS) method was then explored. While this approach was found capable of identifying a prominent reaction tube, it was not capable of computing the free energy profile along the tube. Lastly, the utility of the Transition Interface Sampling (TIS) approach was explored, which does not need a free energy profile and is known to be less reliant on the choice of reaction coordinate. The TIS approach was found capable of accurately predicting the rate, relative to direct MD simulations. This finding was utilized to examine the temperature and load dependence of the dislocation-obstacle interaction in a simple periodic cell configuration. An attractive rate prediction approach combining TST and simple continuum models is identified, and the strain rate sensitivity of individual dislocation obstacle interactions is predicted.

  18. Developing models for the prediction of hospital healthcare waste generation rate.

    PubMed

    Tesfahun, Esubalew; Kumie, Abera; Beyene, Abebe

    2016-01-01

    An increase in the number of health institutions, along with frequent use of disposable medical products, has contributed to the increase of healthcare waste generation rate. For proper handling of healthcare waste, it is crucial to predict the amount of waste generation beforehand. Predictive models can help to optimise healthcare waste management systems, set guidelines and evaluate the prevailing strategies for healthcare waste handling and disposal. However, there is no mathematical model developed for Ethiopian hospitals to predict healthcare waste generation rate. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop models for the prediction of a healthcare waste generation rate. A longitudinal study design was used to generate long-term data on solid healthcare waste composition, generation rate and develop predictive models. The results revealed that the healthcare waste generation rate has a strong linear correlation with the number of inpatients (R(2) = 0.965), and a weak one with the number of outpatients (R(2) = 0.424). Statistical analysis was carried out to develop models for the prediction of the quantity of waste generated at each hospital (public, teaching and private). In these models, the number of inpatients and outpatients were revealed to be significant factors on the quantity of waste generated. The influence of the number of inpatients and outpatients treated varies at different hospitals. Therefore, different models were developed based on the types of hospitals. PMID:26437681

  19. Prediction of Chemical Vapor Deposition Rates on Monofilaments and Its Implications for Fiber Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gokoglu, S. A.; Kuczmarski, M.; Veitch, L. C.

    1992-01-01

    Deposition rates are predicted in a cylindrical upflow reactor designed for chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on monofilaments. Deposition of silicon from silane in a hydrogen carrier gas is chosen as a relevant example. The effects of gas and surface chemistry are studied in a two-dimensional axisymmetric flow field for this chemically well-studied system. Model predictions are compared to experimental CVD rate measurements. The differences in some physical and chemical phenomena between such small diameter (about 150 microns) fiber substrates and other typical CVD substrates are highlighted. The influence of the Soret mass transport mechanism is determined to be extraordinarily significant. The difficulties associated with the accurate measurement and control of the fiber temperature are discussed. Model prediction sensitivities are investigated with respect to fiber temperatures, fiber radii, Soret transport, and chemical kinetic parameters. The implications of the predicted instantaneous rates are discussed relative to the desired fiber properties for both the batch and the continuous processes.

  20. Lower vitamin D levels are associated with higher systemic lupus erythematosus activity, but not predictive of disease flare-up

    PubMed Central

    Schoindre, Yoland; Jallouli, Moez; Tanguy, Marie-Laure; Ghillani, Pascale; Galicier, Lionel; Aumaître, Olivier; Francès, Camille; Le Guern, Véronique; Lioté, Frédéric; Smail, Amar; Limal, Nicolas; Perard, Laurent; Desmurs-Clavel, Hélène; Thi Huong, Du Le; Asli, Bouchra; Kahn, Jean-Emmanuel; Sailler, Laurent; Ackermann, Félix; Papo, Thomas; Sacré, Karim; Fain, Olivier; Stirnemann, Jérôme; Cacoub, Patrice; Leroux, Gaëlle; Cohen-Bittan, Judith; Hulot, Jean-Sébastien; Lechat, Philippe; Musset, Lucile; Piette, Jean-Charles; Amoura, Zahir; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude; Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Growing evidence suggests that vitamin D plays a key role in the pathogenesis and progression of autoimmune diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Recent studies have found an association between lower serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels and higher SLE activity. We studied the relationship between 25(OH)D levels and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) score, and we assessed for the first time the role of vitamin D in predicting SLE flare-ups. Methods Serum 25(OH)D levels were measured in 170 patients with SLE who were prospectively followed up for 6 months (Plaquenil LUpus Systemic study, ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00413361). Results The mean SLEDAI score was 2.03±2.43 and 12.3% patients had active disease (SLEDAI ≥6). The mean 25(OH)D level was 20.6±9.8 ng/mL. Deficiency (25(OH)D <10 ng/mL) was observed in 27 (15.9%), insufficiency (10≤25(OH)D<30) in 112 (65.9%) and optimal vitamin D status (25(OH)D≥30) in 31 (18.2%) patients. In multivariate analysis, female gender (p=0.018), absence of defined antiphospholipid syndrome (p=0.002) and higher creatinine clearance (p=0.004) were predictive of lower 25(OH)D levels. In multivariate analysis, lower 25(OH)D levels were associated with high SLE activity (p=0.02). Relapse-free survival rate was not statistically different according to the vitamin D status during the 6-month follow-up (p=0.22). Conclusions We found a low vitamin D status in the majority of patients with SLE, and a modest association between lower 25(OH)D levels and high disease activity. There was no association between baseline 25(OH)D levels and relapse-free survival rate. PMID:25379192

  1. Prediction of change in protein unfolding rates upon point mutations in two state proteins.

    PubMed

    Chaudhary, Priyashree; Naganathan, Athi N; Gromiha, M Michael

    2016-09-01

    Studies on protein unfolding rates are limited and challenging due to the complexity of unfolding mechanism and the larger dynamic range of the experimental data. Though attempts have been made to predict unfolding rates using protein sequence-structure information there is no available method for predicting the unfolding rates of proteins upon specific point mutations. In this work, we have systematically analyzed a set of 790 single mutants and developed a robust method for predicting protein unfolding rates upon mutations (Δlnku) in two-state proteins by combining amino acid properties and knowledge-based classification of mutants with multiple linear regression technique. We obtain a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.79/s and a Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.71 between predicted unfolding rates and experimental observations using jack-knife test. We have developed a web server for predicting protein unfolding rates upon mutation and it is freely available at https://www.iitm.ac.in/bioinfo/proteinunfolding/unfoldingrace.html. Prominent features that determine unfolding kinetics as well as plausible reasons for the observed outliers are also discussed. PMID:27264959

  2. A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levison, W. H.

    1982-01-01

    A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings is described. Features of this procedure, which is based on the optimal-control model for pilot/vehicle systems, include (1) capability to treat "unconventional" aircraft dynamics, (2) a relatively free-form pilot model, (3) a simple scalar metric for attentional workload, and (4) a straightforward manner of proceeding from descriptions of the flight task environment and requirements to a prediction of pilot opinion rating. The method was able to provide a good match to a set of pilot opinion ratings obtained in a manned simulation study of large commercial aircraft in landing approach.

  3. A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levison, W. H.

    1980-01-01

    A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings is described. Features of this procedure, which is based on the optimal-control model for pilot/vehicle systems, include (1) capability to treat 'unconventional' aircraft dynamics, (2) a relatively free-form pilot model, (3) a simple scalar metric for attentional workload, and (4) a straightforward manner of proceeding from descriptions of the flight task environment and requirements to a prediction of pilot opinion rating. The method is able to provide a good match to a set of pilot opinion ratings obtained in a manned simulation study of large commercial aircraft in landing approach.

  4. Statistical evaluation of the SES predictions issued in Greece: alarm and success rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamada, Kazuo

    1993-08-01

    Earthquake prediction, based on continuous measurements of the electric field of the Earth, has been systematically carried out by Varotsos and co-workers in Greece. Predictions were issued by telegrams to Greek authorities. Statistical evaluation of these predictions was made by comparing telegram prediction information with earthquake parameters determined by the US Geological Survey. The space-time domain selected for this evaluation was 20-24°E, 36-41°N, from January, 1987, to June, 1989. Successfully predicted earthquakes are defined here as those that occurred within 22 days of the prediction, within 100 km of the predicted epicenter and with a magnitude difference (predicted minus true) rot greater than 0.7. Twelve predictions were issued for earthquakes with expected Ms⩾ 5.3. Following our criteria, ten were successful, two were not. The magnitudes of the predicted earthquakes varied from 4.1 to 5.5. For earthquakes with Mb( USGS) ⩾ 5.0, the ratio of the predicted to the total number of earthquakes is 6/12 (50%) and the success rate of the prediction is also {6}/{12} (50%), with a probability gain of a factor of 4. With a confidence level of 99.8%, the possibility of this success rate being explained by a random model of earthquake occurrence, taking into account a regional factor which includes high seismicity in the prediction area, can be rejected. For earthquakes with Mb( USGS) < 4.5, a statistical significance could not be obtained because of the large number of small earthquakes.

  5. Do Astronauts Havbe a Higher Rate of Orthopedic Shoulder Conditions Than a Cohort of Working Professionals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, M. S.; Murray, J. D.; Young, M.; Wear, M. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Tarver, W. J.

    2016-01-01

    Occupational surveillance of astronaut shoulder injuries began with operational concerns at the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) during Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) training. Orthopedic shoulder injury and surgery rates were calculated [1], but classifying the rates as normal, high or low was highly dependent on the comparison group. Thus, the purpose of this study was to identify a population of working professionals and compare orthopedic shoulder consultation and surgery rates.

  6. Do Astronauts have a Higher Rate of Orthopedic Shoulder Conditions than a Cohort of Working Professionals?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, Mitzi S.; Murray, Jocelyn D.; Young, Millenia; Wear, Mary L.; Tarver, W. J.; Van Baalen, Mary

    2016-01-01

    Occupational surveillance of astronaut shoulder injuries began with operational concerns at the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) during Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) training. NASA has implemented several occupational health initiatives during the past 20 years to decrease the number and severity of injuries, but the individual success rate is unknown. Orthopedic shoulder injury and surgery rates were calculated, but classifying the rates as normal, high or low was highly dependent on the comparison group. The purpose of this study was to identify a population of working professionals and compare orthopedic shoulder consultation and surgery rates.

  7. Effect of heart rate correction on pre- and post-exercise heart rate variability to predict risk of mortality—an experimental study on the FINCAVAS cohort

    PubMed Central

    Pradhapan, Paruthi; Tarvainen, Mika P.; Nieminen, Tuomo; Lehtinen, Rami; Nikus, Kjell; Lehtimäki, Terho; Kähönen, Mika; Viik, Jari

    2014-01-01

    The non-linear inverse relationship between RR-intervals and heart rate (HR) contributes significantly to the heart rate variability (HRV) parameters and their performance in mortality prediction. To determine the level of influence HR exerts over HRV parameters' prognostic power, we studied the predictive performance for different HR levels by applying eight correction procedures, multiplying or dividing HRV parameters by the mean RR-interval (RRavg) to the power 0.5–16. Data collected from 1288 patients in The Finnish Cardiovascular Study (FINCAVAS), who satisfied the inclusion criteria, was used for the analyses. HRV parameters (RMSSD, VLF Power and LF Power) were calculated from 2-min segment in the rest phase before exercise and 2-min recovery period immediately after peak exercise. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to determine the predictive performance for each parameter with and without HR corrections in rest and recovery phases. The division of HRV parameters by segment's RRavg to the power 2 (HRVDIV-2) showed the highest predictive performance under the rest phase (RMSSD: 0.67/0.66; VLF Power: 0.70/0.62; LF Power: 0.79/0.65; cardiac mortality/non-cardiac mortality) with minimum correlation to HR (r = −0.15 to 0.15). In the recovery phase, Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis revealed good risk stratification capacity at HRVDIV-2 in both groups (cardiac and non-cardiac mortality). Although higher powers of correction (HRVDIV-4and HRVDIV-8) improved predictive performance during recovery, they induced an increased positive correlation to HR. Thus, we inferred that predictive capacity of HRV during rest and recovery is augmented when its dependence on HR is weakened by applying appropriate correction procedures. PMID:24917825

  8. Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

    PubMed Central

    Gienapp, Phillip; Lof, Marjolein; Reed, Thomas E.; McNamara, John; Verhulst, Simon; Visser, Marcel E.

    2013-01-01

    Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a ‘critical rate of environmental change’ beyond which increased maladaptation leads to population extinction. Here, we parametrize two closely related models to predict this critical rate using data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We used stochastic dynamic programming to predict changes in optimal breeding time under three different climate scenarios. Using these results we parametrized two theoretical models to predict critical rates. Results from both models agreed qualitatively in that even ‘mild’ rates of climate change would be close to these critical rates with respect to great tit breeding time, while for scenarios close to the upper limit of IPCC climate projections the calculated critical rates would be clearly exceeded with possible consequences for population persistence. We therefore tentatively conclude that micro-evolution, together with plasticity, would rescue only the population from mild rates of climate change, although the models make many simplifying assumptions that remain to be tested. PMID:23209174

  9. Short term Heart Rate Variability to predict blood pressure drops due to standing: a pilot study

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Standing from a bed or chair may cause a significant lowering of blood pressure (ΔBP), which may have severe consequences such as, for example, falls in older subjects. The goal of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the ΔBP due to standing in healthy subjects, based on their Heart Rate Variability, recorded in the 5 minutes before standing. Methods Heart Rate Variability was extracted from an electrocardiogram, recorded from 10 healthy subjects during the 5 minutes before standing. The blood pressure value was measured before and after rising. A mathematical model aiming to predict ΔBP based on Heart Rate Variability measurements was developed using a robust multi-linear regression and was validated with the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation technique. Results The model predicted correctly the ΔBP in 80% of experiments, with an error below the measurement error of sphygmomanometer digital devices (±4.5 mmHg), a false negative rate of 7.5% and a false positive rate of 10%. The magnitude of the ΔBP was associated with a depressed and less chaotic Heart Rate Variability pattern. Conclusions The present study showes that blood pressure lowering due to standing can be predicted by monitoring the Heart Rate Variability in the 5 minutes before standing. PMID:26391336

  10. Humor Ability Reveals Intelligence, Predicts Mating Success, and Is Higher in Males

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greengross, Gil; Miller, Geoffrey

    2011-01-01

    A good sense of humor is sexually attractive, perhaps because it reveals intelligence, creativity, and other "good genes" or "good parent" traits. If so, intelligence should predict humor production ability, which in turn should predict mating success. In this study, 400 university students (200 men and 200 women) completed measures of abstract…

  11. Predicting University Preference and Attendance: Applied Marketing in Higher Education Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cook, Robert W.; Zallocco, Ronald L.

    1983-01-01

    A multi-attribute attitude model was used to determine whether a multicriteria scale can be used to predict student preferences for and attendance at universities. Data were gathered from freshmen attending five state universities in Ohio. The results indicate a high level of predictability. (Author/MLW)

  12. Swfoldrate: predicting protein folding rates from amino acid sequence with sliding window method.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Xiang; Xiao, Xuan; Wu, Zhi-cheng; Wang, Pu; Lin, Wei-zhong

    2013-01-01

    Protein folding is the process by which a protein processes from its denatured state to its specific biologically active conformation. Understanding the relationship between sequences and the folding rates of proteins remains an important challenge. Most previous methods of predicting protein folding rate require the tertiary structure of a protein as an input. In this study, the long-range and short-range contact in protein were used to derive extended version of the pseudo amino acid composition based on sliding window method. This method is capable of predicting the protein folding rates just from the amino acid sequence without the aid of any structural class information. We systematically studied the contributions of individual features to folding rate prediction. The optimal feature selection procedures are adopted by means of combining the forward feature selection and sequential backward selection method. Using the jackknife cross validation test, the method was demonstrated on the large dataset. The predictor was achieved on the basis of multitudinous physicochemical features and statistical features from protein using nonlinear support vector machine (SVM) regression model, the method obtained an excellent agreement between predicted and experimentally observed folding rates of proteins. The correlation coefficient is 0.9313 and the standard error is 2.2692. The prediction server is freely available at http://www.jci-bioinfo.cn/swfrate/input.jsp. PMID:22933332

  13. Emotionally excited eyeblink-rate variability predicts an experience of transportation into the narrative world

    PubMed Central

    Nomura, Ryota; Hino, Kojun; Shimazu, Makoto; Liang, Yingzong; Okada, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    Collective spectator communications such as oral presentations, movies, and storytelling performances are ubiquitous in human culture. This study investigated the effects of past viewing experiences and differences in expressive performance on an audience’s transportive experience into a created world of a storytelling performance. In the experiment, 60 participants (mean age = 34.12 years, SD = 13.18 years, range 18–63 years) were assigned to watch one of two videotaped performances that were played (1) in an orthodox way for frequent viewers and (2) in a modified way aimed at easier comprehension for first-time viewers. Eyeblink synchronization among participants was quantified by employing distance-based measurements of spike trains, Dspike and Dinterval (Victor and Purpura, 1997). The results indicated that even non-familiar participants’ eyeblinks were synchronized as the story progressed and that the effect of the viewing experience on transportation was weak. Rather, the results of a multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the degrees of transportation could be predicted by a retrospectively reported humor experience and higher real-time variability (i.e., logarithmic transformed SD) of inter blink intervals during a performance viewing. The results are discussed from the viewpoint in which the extent of eyeblink synchronization and eyeblink-rate variability acts as an index of the inner experience of audience members. PMID:26029123

  14. Predicted and measured effects of pressure and crossflow velocity on composite propellant burning rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, M. K.

    1980-01-01

    A theoretical model for prediction of burning rates of composite (ammonium perchlorate oxidizer) solid propellants as a function of pressure and crossflow velocity was developed. Included in this model is the capability for treatment of multimodal oxidizer particle sizes and metalized formulations. In addition, an experimental device for measuring the effects of crossflow velocity on propellant burning rate was developed and used to characterize a series of AP/HTPB propellants with systematically varied formulation parameters. Model predictions of zero-crossflow burning rate versus pressure characteristics were found to be in agreement with data, while the agreement between erosive burning predictions and data is, in general, good. The experimental data indicate that the dominant factor influencing the sensitivity of composite propellant burning rate to crossflow is the base (no-crossflow) burning rate versus pressure characteristics of the propellant (lower base burning rate leading to increased crossflow sensitivity). Finally, the model was used to examine the effects of motor scaling on erosive burning: erosive burning is predicted to diminish with increasing motor size, in agreement with experience.

  15. A Comparison of Retention Rates among America's 2-Year Institutions of Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Tampa J.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the study was first to calculate the full-time and part-time retention rates for each category of 2-year institution and to examine the differences, if they existed, between and among the three types of colleges. Secondly, the study explored the differences in the full-time and part-time retention rates of first-time students within…

  16. Can urinary excretion rate of 8-isoprostrane and malonaldehyde predict postoperative cognitive dysfunction in aging?

    PubMed

    Cheng, Qinghao; Wang, Jiawan; Wu, Anshi; Zhang, Rujin; Li, Lei; Yue, Yun

    2013-09-01

    Oxidative stress has been associated with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, little is known about oxidative stress in postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) in aging. The aim of this study was to investigate urinary excretion rate of 8-isoprostane:creatinine (U8-isoPG:Cr) and malonaldehyde:creatinine (UMDA:Cr) to predict short-term POCD in elderly patients undergoing general and orthopedic surgery. 72 patients aged above 65 years were enrolled in this prospective observational study. Each patient underwent cognitive testing to determine POCD performed by an investigator before surgery and 1 week after surgery. Morning urine was collected at baseline, 1, 2, and 7 days postoperatively. U8-isoPG was performed using enzymelinked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and UMDA levels were measured by chemiluminescence detection. Creatinine levels were also analyzed if differences in the oxidative biomarkers were observed in the urine creatinine concentration. (1). Of 72 patients who completed cognitive testing, postoperative cognitive dysfunction was detected in 29.2 % (n = 21) of patients in 7 days. (2) U8-isoPG:Cr levels in 7 days postoperatively were significantly higher in POCD patients compared with the non-POCD group (p = 0.01). When measuring change from baseline, U8-isoPG:Cr levels were higher than that of control groups (p = 0.01). (3) UMDA:Cr levels were significantly elevated in 1 and 2 days postoperatively in both groups (p < 0.05). U8-isoPG:Cr level seems to be a valuable marker to detect lipid peroxidation early in POCD patients. However, it will also be important to take into account or reduce potential confounders to improve the identification of changes in the status of oxidative stress as a marker for POCD. PMID:23380806

  17. Quasi-static magnetic measurements to predict specific absorption rates in magnetic fluid hyperthermia experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coral, D. F.; Mendoza Zélis, P.; de Sousa, M. E.; Muraca, D.; Lassalle, V.; Nicolás, P.; Ferreira, M. L.; Fernández van Raap, M. B.

    2014-01-01

    In this work, the issue on whether dynamic magnetic properties of polydispersed magnetic colloids modeled using physical magnitudes derived from quasi-static magnetic measurement can be extrapolated to analyze specific absorption rate data acquired at high amplitudes and frequencies of excitation fields is addressed. To this end, we have analyzed two colloids of magnetite nanoparticles coated with oleic acid and chitosan in water displaying, under a radiofrequency field, high and low specific heat power release. Both colloids are alike in terms of liquid carrier, surfactant and magnetic phase composition but differ on the nanoparticle structuring. The colloid displaying low specific dissipation consists of spaced magnetic nanoparticles of mean size around 4.8 nm inside a large chitosan particle of 52.5 nm. The one displaying high specific dissipation consists of clusters of magnetic nanoparticles of mean size around 9.7 nm inside a chitosan particle of 48.6 nm. The experimental evaluation of Néel and Brown relaxation times (˜10-10 s and 10-4 s, respectively) indicate that the nanoparticles in both colloids magnetically relax by Néel mechanism. The isothermal magnetization curves analysis for this mechanism show that the magnetic nanoparticles behave in the interacting superparamagnetic regime. The specific absorption rates were determined calorimetrically at 260 kHz and up to 52 kA/m and were well modeled within linear response theory using the anisotropy density energy retrieved from quasi-static magnetic measurement, validating their use to predict heating ability of a given polydispersed particle suspension. Our findings provide new insight in the validity of quasi-static magnetic characterization to analyze the high frequency behavior of polydispersed colloids within the framework of the linear response and Wohlfarth theories and indicate that dipolar interactions play a key role being their strength larger for the colloid displaying higher dissipation, i

  18. Displacement rate dependence of irradiation creep as predicted by the production bias model

    SciTech Connect

    Woo, C.H.

    1996-04-01

    Recently, it has been shown that the non-swelling component of irradiation creep of austenitic stainless steels is relatively independent of temperature but is sensitive to the displacement rate. An earlier model of Lewthwaite and Mosedale anticipated the sensitivity of displacement rate and attributed it to the flux sensitivity of point defect recombination. The point-defect recombination process does not yield the observed temperature dependence, however, although it does predict an inverse dependence of the creep rate on the square root of the displacement rate that was experimentally observed at relatively low temperatures.

  19. A simple algorithm for predicting proton SEU rates in space compared to the rates measured on the CRRES satellite

    SciTech Connect

    Reed, R.A.; McNulty, P.J.; Beauvais, W.J.; Abdel-Kader, W.G. . Dept. of Physics and Astronomy); Stassinopoulos, E.G.; Barth, J.C.L. )

    1994-12-01

    A new simulation code, the Clemson Omnidirectional Spallation Model for Interaction in Circuits (COSMIC), is described and its predictions agree with SEU data from four devices flown as part of the microelectronics package experiment on the CRRES satellite. The code uses CUPID for determining the energy depositions in the sensitive volumes; it allows proton exposures with arbitrary angles of incidence including random omnidirectional exposure; and the user specifies the thickness of shielding on six sides of the sensitive volume. COSMIC is used as part of an algorithm developed to predict the rate proton induced single event upsets occur in the space radiation environment given by AP-8. In testing the algorithm, the position coordinates are taken from the satellite's ephemeris data, but calculations based on position coordinates from orbital codes were also in agreement with the measured values.

  20. Prediction of Daily Ratings of Psychosocial Functioning: Can Ratings of Personality Disorder Traits and Functioning be Distinguished?

    PubMed Central

    Calabrese, William R.; Simms, Leonard J.

    2014-01-01

    Current categorical and dimensional conceptualizations of personality disorder (PD) typically confound pathological PD traits with distress and impairment (dysfunction). The current study examines whether dimensions of personality pathology and psychosocial dysfunction can be psychometrically distinguished. To that end, we collected self-report ratings of personality pathology and dysfunction at baseline, along with daily ratings of dysfunctional behavior over ten consecutive days. Correlations revealed substantial overlap between traits and dysfunction measured at baseline. However, follow-up hierarchical regressions revealed that baseline dysfunction ratings incrementally predicted daily dysfunction ratings after accounting for personality trait ratings, suggesting that traits and dysfunction are at least partially differentiable. However, the incremental effects were stronger for some dysfunction domains (i.e., Self-Mastery and Basic Functioning) than for others (Well-Being and Interpersonal), suggesting that maladaptive trait measures are more confounded with the latter types of impairment. These findings suggest that distinguishing maladaptive PD traits from functioning in PD classification systems likely is more difficult than would be expected, a finding that has important implications for the competing Section II and Section III conceptualizations of PD presented in DSM-5. PMID:24730507

  1. Predicting Public Confidence in Higher Education Institutions: An Analysis of Social Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunsaker, B. Tom; Thomas, Douglas E.

    2014-01-01

    Research indicates that there are two primary aims of the higher education institution: (a) scientific and scholarly inquiry, and (b) the instruction of students (Veblen, 1918). This aim has been reified consistently for nearly a century. By 2002, the pursuit of higher education had reached record levels. However, more recently, public confidence…

  2. Open-Source Learning Management Systems: A Predictive Model for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Rooij, S. Williams

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated the role of pedagogical, technical, and institutional profile factors in an institution of higher education's decision to select an open-source learning management system (LMS). Drawing on the results of previous research that measured patterns of deployment of open-source software (OSS) in US higher education and…

  3. Time for prediction? The effect of presentation rate on predictive sentence comprehension during word-by-word reading.

    PubMed

    Wlotko, Edward W; Federmeier, Kara D

    2015-07-01

    Predictive processing is a core component of normal language comprehension, but the brain may not engage in prediction to the same extent in all circumstances. This study investigates the effects of timing on anticipatory comprehension mechanisms. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants read two-sentence mini-scenarios previously shown to elicit prediction-related effects for implausible items that are categorically related to expected items ('They wanted to make the hotel look more like a tropical resort. So along the driveway they planted rows of PALMS/PINES/TULIPS.'). The first sentence of every pair was presented in its entirety and was self-paced. The second sentence was presented word-by-word with a fixed stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of either 500 msec or 250 msec that was manipulated in a within-subjects blocked design. Amplitudes of the N400 ERP component are taken as a neural index of demands on semantic processing. At 500 msec SOA, implausible words related to predictable words elicited reduced N400 amplitudes compared to unrelated words (PINES vs TULIPS), replicating past studies. At 250 msec SOA this prediction-related semantic facilitation was diminished. Thus, timing is a factor in determining the extent to which anticipatory mechanisms are engaged. However, we found evidence that prediction can sometimes be engaged even under speeded presentation rates. Participants who first read sentences in the 250 msec SOA block showed no effect of semantic similarity for this SOA, although these same participants showed the effect in the second block with 500 msec SOA. However, participants who first read sentences in the 500 msec SOA block continued to show the N400 semantic similarity effect in the 250 msec SOA block. These findings add to results showing that the brain flexibly allocates resources to most effectively achieve comprehension goals given the current processing environment. PMID:25987437

  4. Are Interpersonal Violence Rates Higher Among Young Women in College Compared With Those Never Attending College?

    PubMed

    Coker, Ann L; Follingstad, Diane R; Bush, Heather M; Fisher, Bonnie S

    2016-05-01

    Estimates of sexual violence and partner violence rates among young women are generated primarily from college samples. Few studies have data to compare rates among similar-aged women attending college with those who never attended college. This study aims to estimate rates of partner violence by type (sexual, physical, and psychological) and severity (mild, moderate, severe), sexual harassment, and knowing or suspecting that someone put a drug in a drink (drugged drink) among a national sample of 959 young women aged 18 to 24 in an intimate relationship in the past 12 months who were either currently in college (college;n= 272) or never attended college (non-college;n= 687). After adjusting for demographic differences between these two groups, no significant differences were found in rates of sexual partner violence (28.4% non-college, 23.5% college), physical partner violence (27.9% non-college, 26.3% college), psychological partner violence (Mscore: 6.10 non-college, 5.59 college), sexual harassment (15.5% non-college, 14.1% college), or drugged drink (8.5% non-college, 7.8% college). Finding high rates of interpersonal violence among young women who are and are not currently attending college indicates the need to target all young adults with violence prevention interventions in educational, workplace, and other community-based settings. PMID:25604971

  5. Jet algorithms in electron-positron annihilation: perturbative higher order predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinzierl, Stefan

    2011-02-01

    This article gives results on several jet algorithms in electron-positron annihilation: Considered are the exclusive sequential recombination algorithms Durham, Geneva, Jade-E0 and Cambridge, which are typically used in electron-positron annihilation. In addition also inclusive jet algorithms are studied. Results are provided for the inclusive sequential recombination algorithms Durham, Aachen and anti- k t , as well as the infrared-safe cone algorithm SISCone. The results are obtained in perturbative QCD and are N3LO for the two-jet rates, NNLO for the three-jet rates, NLO for the four-jet rates and LO for the five-jet rates.

  6. Higher rate alternative non-drug reinforcement produces faster suppression of cocaine seeking but more resurgence when removed.

    PubMed

    Craig, Andrew R; Nall, Rusty W; Madden, Gregory J; Shahan, Timothy A

    2016-06-01

    Relapse following removal of an alternative source of reinforcement introduced during extinction of a target behavior is called resurgence. This form of relapse may be related to relapse of drug taking following loss of alternative non-drug reinforcement in human populations. Laboratory investigations of factors mediating resurgence with food-maintained behavior suggest higher rates of alternative reinforcement produce faster suppression of target behavior but paradoxically generate more relapse when alternative reinforcement is discontinued. At present, it is unknown if a similar effect occurs when target behavior is maintained by drug reinforcement and the alternative is a non-drug reinforcer. In the present experiment three groups of rats were trained to lever press for infusions of cocaine during baseline. Next, during treatment, cocaine reinforcement was suspended and an alternative response was reinforced with either high-rate, low-rate, or no alternative food reinforcement. Finally, all reinforcement was suspended to test for relapse of cocaine seeking. Higher rate alternative reinforcement produced faster elimination of cocaine seeking than lower rates or extinction alone, but when treatment was suspended resurgence of cocaine seeking occurred following only high-rate alternative reinforcement. Thus, although higher rate alternative reinforcement appears to more effectively suppress drug seeking, should it become unavailable, it can have the unfortunate effect of increasing relapse. PMID:26988268

  7. Examining Life Goals and School Attendance Rates of Afghan Students Receiving Higher Education in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bek, Hafiz

    2016-01-01

    This research is a descriptive study carried out to examine the relations between life goals and school attendance levels among Afghan students receiving higher education in Turkey. In total there were 198 Afghan students that participated in the study. Among which 159 were male and 39 female. All of these students were studying in 16 Turkish…

  8. A Waste of Resources? Social Rates of Return to Higher Education in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ashworth, John

    1998-01-01

    Demonstrates that popular assertions regarding the social benefits of additional higher education are dubious. Reveals four decisive factors: presumed economic growth; changes in graduates' and nongraduates' relative earnings; differences between the marginal and average student; and belief in scale economies. Unless economic growth favors…

  9. SEU rate prediction and measurement of GaAs SRAMs onboard the CRRES satellite

    SciTech Connect

    Weatherford, T.R.; McDonald, P.T. Naval Research Lab., Washington, DC ); Campbell, A.B.; Langworthy, J.B. )

    1993-12-01

    The Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) launched in July of 1990 included experiments to study effects of Single Event Upset (SEU) on various microelectronic ICs. The MicroElectronics Package (MEP) subsection of the satellite experiments monitored upset rates on 65 devices over a 15 month period. One of the purposes of the SEU experiments was to determine if the soft error modeling techniques were of sufficient accuracy to predict error rates, and if not, to determine where the deficiencies existed. An analysis is presented on SPICE predicted, SEU ground tested, and CRRES observed heavy ion and proton soft error rates of GaAs SRAMs. Upset rates overestimated the susceptibility of the GaAs SRAMs. Differences are accounted to several factors.

  10. Development of a mechanistic model for predicting corrosion rate in multiphase oil/water/gas flows

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, R.; Gopal, M.; Jepson, W.P.

    1997-09-01

    A mechanistic model has been developed to predict corrosion rates in multiphase (water/oil/CO{sub 2}) flow conditions. The model takes into account electrochemistry, reaction kinetics, and, mass transport effects. This paper describes the equations used to determine pH and bulk concentrations of various ions, which are then used to calculate the mass transfer rates to the corrosion surface. The result includes the determination of the mass transfer coefficients of various ionic species and corrosion rates. Details of relations used for determination of mass transfer coefficients for multiphase flows, and rates of electrochemical reaction kinetics are discussed and predicted results are compared with experimental observations. Agreement between model results and experimental data is good.

  11. Update on Graduation Rate Reporting: Issues and Opportunities. Policy Matters: A Higher Education Policy Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russell, Alene

    2009-01-01

    Since the passage of the federal Student Right-to-Know Act of 1990 (SRTK), graduation rates have been a subject of much debate and controversy. Why all the fuss? The simple truth is that graduation from college does matter, and it matters more than ever. From the societal perspective, the United States is falling behind other nations in the…

  12. Forecasting Student Entrants, Flows and Success Rates. Technical Report. Studies in Institutional Management in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Han, Stjepan; And Others

    This document is concerned with an information system to study the internal dynamics of student flows, choice of subjects and success rates, taking into account different regional affiliations and the socioeconomic backgrounds of students. Among the external factors to be considered will be the demographic dimension in terms of changes in the…

  13. Community College Responses to Calls for Higher Completion Rates: The Cases of Three Community Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smock, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to understand how three diverse community colleges are interpreting and acting on federal initiatives to increase completion rates. The study attempted to answer four main research questions: (1) How do a selection of Kansas community colleges, as organizations, interpret the initiative to increase completion…

  14. Choosing a Higher Education Study Abroad Destination: What Mainland Chinese Parents and Students Rate as Important

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bodycott, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Mainland China is one of the largest sources of undergraduate and postgraduate students. Previous research has identified the push-pull factors and features that influence a student choice of study abroad destination. This article extends understanding by identifying and examining what 251 mainland Chinese parents and 100 students rated as most…

  15. Systematic and Systemic Approaches to Reducing Attrition Rates in Online Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chyung, Seung Youn

    2001-01-01

    Discusses an online distance education program at Boise State University that used Keller's ARCS model, Kaufman's Organizational Elements Model, and Kirkpatrick's evaluation model to improve motivational appeal for the adult learners and reduce the attrition rate. Describes the interventions implemented and presents results of evaluations that…

  16. Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

  17. The Relations between Lower and Higher Level Comprehension Skills and Their Role in Prediction of Early Reading Comprehension

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silva, Macarena; Cain, Kate

    2015-01-01

    This study of 4- to 6-year-olds had 2 aims: first, to determine how lower level comprehension skills (receptive vocabulary and grammar) and verbal memory support early higher level comprehension skills (inference and literal story comprehension), and second, to establish the predictive power of these skills on subsequent reading comprehension.…

  18. Higher Adenoma Detection Rates with Endocuff-Assisted Colonoscopy – A Randomized Controlled Multicenter Trial

    PubMed Central

    Fitzlaff, Rüdiger; Röming, Hermann; Ameis, Detlev; Heinecke, Achim; Kunsch, Steffen; Ellenrieder, Volker; Ströbel, Philipp; Schepke, Michael; Meister, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The Endocuff is a device mounted on the tip of the colonoscope to help flatten the colonic folds during withdrawal. This study aimed to compare the adenoma detection rates between Endocuff-assisted (EC) colonoscopy and standard colonoscopy (SC). Methods This randomized prospective multicenter trial was conducted at four academic endoscopy units in Germany. Participants: 500 patients (235 males, median age 64[IQR 54–73]) for colon adenoma detection purposes were included in the study. All patients were either allocated to EC or SC. The primary outcome measure was the determination of the adenoma detection rates (ADR). Results The ADR significantly increased with the use of the Endocuff compared to standard colonoscopy (35.4%[95% confidence interval{CI} 29–41%] vs. 20.7%[95%CI 15–26%], p<0.0001). Significantly more sessile polyps were detected by EC. Overall procedure time and withdrawal time did not differ. Caecal and ileum intubation rates were similar. No major adverse events occurred in both groups. In multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03; 95%[CI] 1.01–1.05), male sex (OR 1.74; 95%CI 1.10–2.73), withdrawal time (OR 1.16; 95%CI 1.05–1.30), procedure time (OR 1.07; 95%CI 1.04–1.10), colon cleanliness (OR 0.60; 95%CI 0.39–0.94) and use of Endocuff (OR 2.09; 95%CI 1.34–3.27) were independent predictors of adenoma detection rates. Conclusions EC increases the adenoma detection rate by 14.7%(95%CI 6.9–22.5%). EC is safe, effective, easy to handle and might reduce colorectal interval carcinomas. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02034929. PMID:25470133

  19. Women With Early Menopause Have Higher Rates of Target Lesion Revascularization After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Linlin; Wang, Zhijian; Liu, Xiaoli; Zhou, Zhiming; Zhao, Yingxin; Shi, Dongmei; Liu, Yuyang; Liang, Jing; Yang, Lixia; Chai, Meng; Zhou, Yujie

    2016-04-01

    Early menopause has been found to be associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Our objective was to investigate the impact of early menopause on clinical outcomes for women undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We observed female patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing PCI and found that women with early menopause (≤46 years old) were more likely to have CAD risk factors and more severe coronary lesions. During the 18-month follow-up, early menopause was associated with similar risk of death and myocardial infarction but higher risk of target lesion revascularization (TLR; 7.8% vs 5.3%, P = .003) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs; 11.3% vs 9.0%, P = .007). After adjustment, early menopause was an independent risk factor for 18-month MACEs (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-2.00) and TLR (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.21-2.13). In conclusion, for women undergoing PCI, early menopause is associated with higher risk of MACE, which is mainly driven by risk of TLR. PMID:26032851

  20. A meta-analysis of passage rate estimated by rumen evacuation with cattle and evaluation of passage rate prediction models.

    PubMed

    Krizsan, S J; Ahvenjärvi, S; Huhtanen, P

    2010-12-01

    A meta-analysis of studies using the flux/compartmental pool method with indigestible neutral detergent fiber (iNDF) as internal marker was conducted to study the effect of extrinsic characteristics and forage type on particle passage rate (k(p)) in cattle. Further, the k(p) prediction equations in the National Research Council (NRC) and the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS) were evaluated. Data comprised 172 treatment means from 49 studies conducted in Europe and the United States. In total, 145 diets were fed to dairy cows and 27 to growing cattle. A prerequisite for inclusion of an experiment was that dry matter intake, neutral detergent fiber (NDF), proportion of concentrate in the diet, body weight, and diet chemical composition were determined or could be estimated. Mixed model regression analysis including a random study effect was used to generate prediction equations of k(p) and to investigate the relationships between NRC and CNCPS predictions and observed k(p) of iNDF. Prediction equations were evaluated by regressing residual values on the predicted values. The best-fit model when forage type was not included was k(p) (%/h) = 1.19+0.0879 × NDF intake (g/kg of body weight)+0.792 × proportion of concentrate NDF of total NDF+1.21 × diet iNDF:NDF ratio (adjusted residual mean square error = 0.23%/h). The best general equation accounting for an effect of forage type was as follows: k(p) (%/h) = F+1.54+0.0866 × NDF intake (g/kg of body weight) (adjusted residual mean square error = 0.21%/h), where F is the forage adjustment factor of the intercept. The value of F for grass silage, fresh grass, mixes of alfalfa and corn silage, and dry or ensiled alfalfa as sole forage component were 0.00, -0.91, +0.83, and +0.24, respectively. Relationships between predicted and observed k(p) were y = 0.53(± 0.187)+0.41( ± 0.0373) × predicted k(p) and y = 0.58(± 0.162)+0.46(± 0.0377) × predicted k(p) for the NRC and CNCPS models, respectively

  1. Slow rates of habituation predict greater zBMI gains over 12 months in lean children

    PubMed Central

    Epstein, Leonard H.; Robinson, Jodie L.; Roemmich, James N.; Marusewski, Angela

    2011-01-01

    Slow rates of habituation are related to greater energy intake, and cross-sectionally to body weight. The present study is designed to assess whether slow rates of habituation are prospectively related to zBMI change over a 12 month period in 66 lean 8–12 year-old children, and whether the rate of habituation is a stable behavioral phenotype. Results showed slower rates of habituation predicted greater zBMI change, controlling for child sex, age, initial zBMI, dietary awareness and minority status. In addition, the rate of habituation was stable over the year of observation. These data suggest that slow rates of habituation may be a risk factor for weight gain and the development of obesity. Future research is needed to understand the mechanism for this effect, and assess whether the habituation phenotype interacts with other behavioral phenotypes, such as food reinforcement, to influence increases in zBMI. PMID:21741020

  2. Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern US Portend Higher Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Mueller, C. S.; Michael, A. J.; McGarr, A.; Petersen, M. D.; Weingarten, M.; Holland, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    Since 2009 the central and eastern United States has experienced an unprecedented increase in the rate of M≥3 earthquakes that is unlikely to be due to natural variation. Where the rates have increased so has the seismic hazard, making it important to understand these changes. Areas with significant seismicity increases are limited to areas where oil and gas production take place. By far the largest contributor to the seismicity increase is Oklahoma, where recent studies suggest that these rate changes may be due to fluid injection (e.g., Keranen et al., Geology, 2013; Science, 2014). Moreover, the area of increased seismicity in northern Oklahoma that began in 2013 coincides with the Mississippi Lime play, where well completions greatly increased the year before the seismicity increase. This suggests a link to oil and gas production either directly or from the disposal of significant amounts of produced water within the play. For the purpose of assessing the hazard due to these earthquakes, should they be treated differently from natural earthquakes? Previous studies suggest that induced seismicity may differ from natural seismicity in clustering characteristics or frequency-magnitude distributions (e.g., Bachmann et al., GJI, 2011; Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013). These differences could affect time-independent hazard computations, which typically assume that clustering and size distribution remain constant. In Oklahoma, as well as other areas of suspected induced seismicity, we find that earthquakes since 2009 tend to be considerably more clustered in space and time than before 2009. However differences between various regional and national catalogs leave unclear whether there are significant changes in magnitude distribution. Whether they are due to natural or industrial causes, the increased earthquake rates in these areas could increase the hazard in ways that are not accounted for in current hazard assessment practice. Clearly the possibility of induced

  3. Calcite precipitation rates in the field: Measurement and prediction for a travertine-depositing stream

    SciTech Connect

    Herman, J.S.; Lorah, M.M. )

    1988-10-01

    Rates of calcite precipitation from a travertine-depositing stream were determined from changes in stream composition between consecutive sampling points and were compared with rates predicted from a laboratory-derived rate law. The agreement in rates was generally within an order of magnitude and routinely within a factor of 3. Least agreement between measured and predicted rates was obtained for sections of flowpath where relatively little change in bulk chemical composition occurred, which were the sections with the greatest mass transfer calculation error, and for the stream segment including a waterfall, which was the section with the greatest error in estimated surface area. Reaction rate obtained from the mass of calcite precipitated onto seed crystals placed in the stream significantly underestimated the mass transfer rate. For the travertine-depositing stream of Warm River Cave and Falling Spring Creek, Virginia, the coupling of equilibrium speciation models with mass balance calculations and simple field measurements allowed successful field-based quantification of reaction rates.

  4. Within treatment therapeutic alliance ratings profiles predict posttreatment frequency of alcohol use

    PubMed Central

    Prince, Mark A.; Connors, Gerard J.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Dearing, Ronda L.

    2016-01-01

    While past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. 65 treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pre-treatment, during treatment, and post-treatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients’ and therapists’ mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. 1- through 4- class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4 months posttreatment. 3-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment. PMID:26999350

  5. USE OF ROUGH SETS AND SPECTRAL DATA FOR BUILDING PREDICTIVE MODELS OF REACTION RATE CONSTANTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A model for predicting the log of the rate constants for alkaline hydrolysis of organic esters has been developed with the use of gas-phase min-infrared library spectra and a rule-building software system based on the mathematical theory of rough sets. A diverse set of 41 esters ...

  6. Predicting Cognitive Development, Intellectual Styles, and Personality Traits from Self-Rated Abilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Li-fang

    2005-01-01

    The present paper reports a series of six studies, each investigating the power of self-rated analytical, creative, and practical abilities for predicting one of six individual-difference variables: cognitive development, modes of thinking, career interests, learning approaches, thinking styles, and personality traits. Contributing to the…

  7. Perceived Prevalence of Teasing and Bullying Predicts High School Dropout Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cornell, Dewey; Gregory, Anne; Huang, Francis; Fan, Xitao

    2013-01-01

    This prospective study of 276 Virginia public high schools found that the prevalence of teasing and bullying (PTB) as perceived by both 9th-grade students and teachers was predictive of dropout rates for this cohort 4 years later. Negative binomial regression indicated that one standard deviation increases in student- and teacher-reported PTB were…

  8. Validity of the Vocational Adaptation Rating Scale: Prediction of Mentally Retarded Workers' Placement in Sheltered Workshops.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malgady, Robert G.; And Others

    1980-01-01

    The validity of the Vocational Adaptation Rating Scale (VARS) for predicting placement of 125 mentally retarded workers in sheltered workshop settings was investigated. Results indicated low to moderate significant partial correlations with concurrent placement and one year follow-up placement (controlling IQ, age, and sex). (Author)

  9. The Predictive Validity of Savry Ratings for Assessing Youth Offenders in Singapore

    PubMed Central

    Chu, Chi Meng; Goh, Mui Leng; Chong, Dominic

    2015-01-01

    Empirical support for the usage of the SAVRY has been reported in studies conducted in many Western contexts, but not in a Singaporean context. This study compared the predictive validity of the SAVRY ratings for violent and general recidivism against the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) ratings within the Singaporean context. Using a sample of 165 male young offenders (Mfollow-up = 4.54 years), results showed that the SAVRY Total Score and Summary Risk Rating, as well as YLS/CMI Total Score and Overall Risk Rating, predicted violent and general recidivism. SAVRY Protective Total Score was only significantly predictive of desistance from general recidivism, and did not show incremental predictive validity for violent and general recidivism over the SAVRY Total Score. Overall, the results suggest that the SAVRY is suited (to varying degrees) for assessing the risk of violent and general recidivism in young offenders within the Singaporean context, but might not be better than the YLS/CMI. PMID:27231403

  10. Predicting Lexical Density Growth Rate in Young Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoder, Paul J.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this longitudinal correlational study was to test whether an environmental variable and 4 child variables predicted growth rate of number of different nonimitative words used (i.e., lexical density). Method: Thirty-five young (age range = 21-54 months) children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) who were initially…

  11. Evaluating the Prediction of Maximal Heart Rate in Children and Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahon, Anthony D.; Marjerrison, Andrea D.; Lee, Jonah D.; Woodruff, Megan E.; Hanna, Lauren E.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we compared measured maximal heart rate (HRmax) to two different HRmax prediction equations [220-age and 208-0.7(age)] in 52 children ages 7-17 years. We determined the relationship of chronological age, maturational age, and resting HR to measured HRmax and assessed seated resting HR and HRmax during a graded exercise test.…

  12. An Evaluation of the Predictive Validity of Confidence Ratings in Identifying Functional Behavioral Assessment Hypothesis Statements

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borgmeier, Chris; Horner, Robert H.

    2006-01-01

    Faced with limited resources, schools require tools that increase the accuracy and efficiency of functional behavioral assessment. Yarbrough and Carr (2000) provided evidence that informant confidence ratings of the likelihood of problem behavior in specific situations offered a promising tool for predicting the accuracy of function-based…

  13. Fetal Heart Rate and Variability: Stability and Prediction to Developmental Outcomes in Early Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DiPietro, Janet A.; Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Costigan, Kathleen; Achy-Brou, Aristide

    2007-01-01

    Stability in cardiac indicators before birth and their utility in predicting variation in postnatal development were examined. Fetal heart rate and variability were measured longitudinally from 20 through 38 weeks gestation (n = 137) and again at age 2 (n = 79). Significant within-individual stability during the prenatal period and into childhood…

  14. Clinical and Radiographic Factors Predicting Hearing Preservation Rates in Large Vestibular Schwannomas.

    PubMed

    Mendelsohn, Daniel; Westerberg, Brian D; Dong, Charles; Akagami, Ryojo

    2016-06-01

    Objectives Postoperative hearing preservation rates for patients with large vestibular schwannomas range from 0 to 43%. The clinical and radiographic factors predicting hearing preservation in smaller vestibular schwannomas are well described; however, their importance in larger tumors is unclear. We investigated factors predicting hearing preservation in large vestibular schwannomas. Design Retrospective review. Setting Quaternary care academic center. Participants A total of 85 patients with unilateral vestibular schwannomas > 3 cm underwent retrosigmoid resections. Main Outcomes Measures Preoperative and postoperative serviceable hearing rates. Methods Clinical and radiographic data including preoperative and postoperative audiograms, preoperative symptoms, magnetic resonance imaging features, and postoperative facial weakness were analyzed. Results Hearing was preserved in 41% of patients (17 of 42) with preoperative serviceable hearing. Hypertension and diabetes increased the likelihood of preoperative hearing loss. Preoperative tinnitus predicted a lower likelihood of hearing preservation. No radiographic factors predicted hearing preservation; however, larger tumor size, smaller fourth ventricular width, and the presence of a cerebrospinal fluid cleft surrounding the tumor predicted postoperative facial weakness. Conclusion Systemic comorbidities may influence hearing loss preoperatively in patients with large vestibular schwannomas. The absence of tinnitus may reflect hearing reserve and propensity for hearing preservation. Preoperative radiographic features did not predict hearing preservation despite some associations with postoperative facial weakness. PMID:27175312

  15. Asymptotic rates of response from forest tree breeding strategies using best linear unbiased prediction.

    PubMed

    Kerr, R J

    1998-03-01

    Genetic gain equations are developed for selection on multiple traits using either multi- or univariate best linear unbiased predictors (BLUP) and for selection under controlled and open pollination and polymix mating schemes. The equations assume an infinite population and account for the effects of selection. A comparison with simulated populations under the same mating schemes show that the gain equations predict selection response well, with the predictions having some upward bias. The gain equations are used to compare across mating schemes, to compare univariate to multivariate analyses, and to measure the reduction in the rate of genetic gain due to selection disequilibrium. Results show controlled pollination schemes can offer as much as a 56% advantage in genetic gain relative to open pollination. The reduction in the rate of genetic gain due to selection disequilibrium is approximately 27% under controlled pollination for the breeding goals studied. The results show a limited benefit in using multivariate analyses for predicting breeding values. PMID:24710888

  16. Resting-state qEEG predicts rate of second language learning in adults.

    PubMed

    Prat, Chantel S; Yamasaki, Brianna L; Kluender, Reina A; Stocco, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the neurobiological basis of individual differences in second language acquisition (SLA) is important for research on bilingualism, learning, and neural plasticity. The current study used quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) to predict SLA in college-aged individuals. Baseline, eyes-closed resting-state qEEG was used to predict language learning rate during eight weeks of French exposure using an immersive, virtual scenario software. Individual qEEG indices predicted up to 60% of the variability in SLA, whereas behavioral indices of fluid intelligence, executive functioning, and working-memory capacity were not correlated with learning rate. Specifically, power in beta and low-gamma frequency ranges over right temporoparietal regions were strongly positively correlated with SLA. These results highlight the utility of resting-state EEG for studying the neurobiological basis of SLA in a relatively construct-free, paradigm-independent manner. PMID:27164483

  17. State funding for higher education and RN replacement rates by state: a case for nursing by the numbers in state legislatures.

    PubMed

    Bargagliotti, L Antoinette

    2009-01-01

    Amid an enduring nursing shortage and state budget shortfalls, discerning how the percentage of state funding to higher education and other registered nurse (RN) workforce variables may be related to the RN replacement rates (RNRR) in states has important policy implications. Regionally, the age of RNs was inversely related to RNRR. State funding in 2000 significantly predicted the 2004 RNRR, with the percentage of LPNs in 2004 adding to the model. The stability of the model using 2000 and 2004 funding data suggests that state funding creates a climate for RNRR. PMID:19789005

  18. Higher attack rates for left motor deficit among men with cerebrovascular events.

    PubMed

    Devroey, D; Buntinx, F; Van Castere, V; Van Der Heyden, J; Vandenberghe, H

    2002-12-10

    The authors report the findings of a prospectively collected database of stroke and TIA recorded from 1998 through 1999 by the 178 family physicians of the Belgian sentinel network. The yearly age-adjusted attack rate per 100,000 men was estimated as 109 (95% CI = 86 to 137) for left motor deficit and 75 (95% CI = 56 to 99) for right motor deficit (p = 0.011). This difference was not observed among women nor in the entire sample population. The authors suggest that handedness should be systematically recorded and compared to both sex and the side of the event. PMID:12473775

  19. DEFINING THE PLAYERS IN HIGHER-ORDER NETWORKS: PREDICTIVE MODELING FOR REVERSE ENGINEERING FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE NETWORKS

    SciTech Connect

    McDermott, Jason E.; Costa, Michelle N.; Stevens, S.L.; Stenzel-Poore, Mary; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

    2011-01-20

    A difficult problem that is currently growing rapidly due to the sharp increase in the amount of high-throughput data available for many systems is that of determining useful and informative causative influence networks. These networks can be used to predict behavior given observation of a small number of components, predict behavior at a future time point, or identify components that are critical to the functioning of the system under particular conditions. In these endeavors incorporating observations of systems from a wide variety of viewpoints can be particularly beneficial, but has often been undertaken with the objective of inferring networks that are generally applicable. The focus of the current work is to integrate both general observations and measurements taken for a particular pathology, that of ischemic stroke, to provide improved ability to produce useful predictions of systems behavior. A number of hybrid approaches have recently been proposed for network generation in which the Gene Ontology is used to filter or enrich network links inferred from gene expression data through reverse engineering methods. These approaches have been shown to improve the biological plausibility of the inferred relationships determined, but still treat knowledge-based and machine-learning inferences as incommensurable inputs. In this paper, we explore how further improvements may be achieved through a full integration of network inference insights achieved through application of the Gene Ontology and reverse engineering methods with specific reference to the construction of dynamic models of transcriptional regulatory networks. We show that integrating two approaches to network construction, one based on reverse-engineering from conditional transcriptional data, one based on reverse-engineering from in situ hybridization data, and another based on functional associations derived from Gene Ontology, using probabilities can improve results of clustering as evaluated by a

  20. Higher Rates of Retinopathy of Prematurity after Increasing Oxygen Saturation Targets for Very Preterm Infants: Experience in a Single Center.

    PubMed

    Manley, Brett J; Kuschel, Carl A; Elder, James E; Doyle, Lex W; Davis, Peter G

    2016-01-01

    Randomized trials of oxygen saturation target ranges for extremely preterm infants showed increased survival but increased retinopathy of prematurity with higher compared with lower target ranges. In our center, changing from a target range of 88%-92% to 91%-95% has been associated with increased rates and severity of retinopathy of prematurity. PMID:26548746

  1. Teacher Quality and Educational Equality: Do Teachers with Higher Standards-Based Evaluation Ratings Close Student Achievement Gaps?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borman, Geoffrey D.; Kimball, Steven M.

    2005-01-01

    Using standards-based evaluation ratings for nearly 400 teachers, and achievement results for over 7,000 students from grades 4-6, this study investigated the distribution and achievement effects of teacher quality in Washoe County, a mid-sized school district serving Reno and Sparks, Nevada. Classrooms with higher concentrations of minority,…

  2. Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth

    PubMed Central

    Fagan, William F.; Pearson, Yanthe E.; Larsen, Elise A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Turner, Jessica B.; Staver, Hilary; Noble, Andrew E.; Bewick, Sharon; Goldberg, Emma E.

    2013-01-01

    The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits. PMID:23720545

  3. Relative rate and location of intra-host HIV evolution to evade cellular immunity are predictable.

    PubMed

    Barton, John P; Goonetilleke, Nilu; Butler, Thomas C; Walker, Bruce D; McMichael, Andrew J; Chakraborty, Arup K

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves within infected persons to escape being destroyed by the host immune system, thereby preventing effective immune control of infection. Here, we combine methods from evolutionary dynamics and statistical physics to simulate in vivo HIV sequence evolution, predicting the relative rate of escape and the location of escape mutations in response to T-cell-mediated immune pressure in a cohort of 17 persons with acute HIV infection. Predicted and clinically observed times to escape immune responses agree well, and we show that the mutational pathways to escape depend on the viral sequence background due to epistatic interactions. The ability to predict escape pathways and the duration over which control is maintained by specific immune responses open the door to rational design of immunotherapeutic strategies that might enable long-term control of HIV infection. Our approach enables intra-host evolution of a human pathogen to be predicted in a probabilistic framework. PMID:27212475

  4. Relative rate and location of intra-host HIV evolution to evade cellular immunity are predictable

    PubMed Central

    Barton, John P.; Goonetilleke, Nilu; Butler, Thomas C.; Walker, Bruce D.; McMichael, Andrew J.; Chakraborty, Arup K.

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves within infected persons to escape being destroyed by the host immune system, thereby preventing effective immune control of infection. Here, we combine methods from evolutionary dynamics and statistical physics to simulate in vivo HIV sequence evolution, predicting the relative rate of escape and the location of escape mutations in response to T-cell-mediated immune pressure in a cohort of 17 persons with acute HIV infection. Predicted and clinically observed times to escape immune responses agree well, and we show that the mutational pathways to escape depend on the viral sequence background due to epistatic interactions. The ability to predict escape pathways and the duration over which control is maintained by specific immune responses open the door to rational design of immunotherapeutic strategies that might enable long-term control of HIV infection. Our approach enables intra-host evolution of a human pathogen to be predicted in a probabilistic framework. PMID:27212475

  5. Technologies to develop a video camera with a frame rate higher than 100 Mfps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vo Le, Cuong; Nguyen, H. D.; Dao, V. T. S.; Takehara, K.; Etoh, T. G.; Akino, T.; Nishi, K.; Kitamura, K.; Arai, T.; Maruyama, H.

    2008-11-01

    A feasibility study is presented for an image sensor capable of image capturing at 100 Mega-frames per second (Mfps). The basic structure of the sensor is the backside-illuminated ISIS, the in-situ storage image sensor, with slanted linear CCD memories, which has already achieved 1 Mfps with very high sensitivity. There are many potential technical barriers to further increase the frame rate up to 100 Mfps, such as traveling time of electrons within a pixel, Resistive-Capacitive (RC) delay in driving voltage transfer, heat generation, heavy electro-magnetic noises, etc. For each of the barriers, a countermeasure is newly proposed and the technical and practical possibility is examined mainly by simulations. The new technical proposals include a special wafer with n and p double epitaxial layers with smoothly changing doping profiles, a design method with curves, the thunderbolt bus lines, and digitalnoiseless image capturing by the ISIS with solely sinusoidal driving voltages. It is confirmed that the integration of these technologies is very promising to realize a practical image sensor with the ultra-high frame rate.

  6. Prediction of FV520B Steel Flow Stresses at High Temperature and Strain Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Xiaolan; Zhao, Shengdun; Zhang, Chenyang; Fan, Shuqin; Xu, Fan

    2015-10-01

    In order to develop reliable constitutive equations for the simulation, the hot deformation behavior of FV520B steel was investigated through isothermal compression tests in a wide range of temperatures from 900 °C to 1100 °C at an interval of 50 °C and strain rate from 0.01 to 10 s-1 on Gleeble-1500D simulator. The effects of temperature and strain rate on deformation behavior were represented by Zener-Holloman parameter in an exponent-type equation of Arrhenius constitutive. The influence of strain was incorporated in the constitutive analysis by material constants expressed as a polynomial function of strain. The constitutive equation (considering the compensation of strain) could precisely predict the flow stress only at strain rate 0.01 s-1 except at the temperatures of 900 °C and 1000 °C, whereas the flow stress predicted by a modified equation (incorporating both the strain and strain rate) demonstrated a well agreement with the experimental data throughout the entire range of temperatures and strain rates. Correlation coefficient (R) of 0.988 and average absolute relative error (AARE) of 5.7% verified the validity of developed equation from statistical analysis, which further confirmed that the modified constitutive equation could accurately predict the flow stress of FV520B steel.

  7. Predicting a Taxonomy of Organisational Effectiveness in U.K. Higher Educational Institutions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lysons, Art; Hatherly, David

    1996-01-01

    The framework of a study of organizational effectiveness in Australian higher education institutions was applied to a similar study in the United Kingdom. The approach was found useful for classifying U.K. institutions as classical universities, former polytechnics and colleges of advanced technology, and greenfield universities. (Author/MSE)

  8. The Role of Prior Mathematical Experience in Predicting Mathematics Performance in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faulkner, Fiona; Hannigan, Ailish; Fitzmaurice, Olivia

    2014-01-01

    Evidence of deficiencies in basic mathematical skills of beginning undergraduates has been documented worldwide. Many different theories have been set out as to why these declines in mathematical competency levels have occurred over time. One such theory is the widening access to higher education which has resulted in a less mathematically…

  9. Comparison of Indirect Calorimetry and Predictive Equations in Estimating Resting Metabolic Rate in Underweight Females

    PubMed Central

    ALIASGHARZADEH, Soghra; MAHDAVI, Reza; ASGHARI JAFARABADI, Mohammad; NAMAZI, Nazli

    2015-01-01

    Background: Underweight as a public health problem in young women is associated with nutritional deficiencies, menstrual irregularity, eating disorders, reduced fertility, etc. Since resting metabolic rate (RMR) is a necessary component in the development of nutrition support therapy, therefore we determined the accuracy of commonly used predictive equations against RMR measured by indirect calorimetry among healthy young underweight females. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 104 underweight females aged 18–30 years old with body mass index (BMI) <18.5 kg/m2 in 2013. After collecting anthropometric data, body composition was measured by bioelectric impedance analysis (BIA). RMR was measured by using indirect calorimetry (FitMate™) and was estimated by 10 commonly used predictive equations. Comparisons were conducted using paired t-test. The accuracy of the RMR equations was evaluated on the basis of the percentage of subjects’ predicted RMR within 10% of measured RMR. Results: The mean BMI of subjects was 17.3±1.3 kg/m2. The measured RMR ranged 736–1490 kcal/day (mean 1084.7±175 kcal/day). Findings indicated that except Muller and Abbreviation, other equations significantly over estimated RMR, compared to measured value (P<0.05). As an individual prediction accuracy, these predictive equations showed poor performance with the highest accuracy rate of 54.8% for Muller equation (22.1% under and 23.1% over-prediction) and 43.3% for Abbreviation equation (31.7% under and 25% over-prediction), the percentage bias was 1.8% and 0.63% and RMSE was 162 and 173 kcal/d, respectively. Conclusion: Although Muller equation gave fairly acceptable prediction, more suitable new equations are needed to be developed to help better management of nutritional plans in young underweight people. PMID:26258095

  10. Accuracy of predictive equations for resting metabolic rate in Korean athletic and non-athletic adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jae-Hee; Kim, Myung-Hee; Kim, Gwi-Sun; Park, Ji-Sun

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Athletes generally desire changes in body composition in order to enhance their athletic performance. Often, athletes will practice chronic energy restrictions to attain body composition changes, altering their energy needs. Prediction of resting metabolic rates (RMR) is important in helping to determine an athlete's energy expenditure. This study compared measured RMR of athletic and non-athletic adolescents with predicted RMR from commonly used prediction equations to identify the most accurate equation applicable for adolescent athletes. SUBJECTS/METHODS A total of 50 athletes (mean age of 16.6 ± 1.0 years, 30 males and 20 females) and 50 non-athletes (mean age of 16.5 ± 0.5 years, 30 males and 20 females) were enrolled in the study. The RMR of subjects was measured using indirect calorimetry. The accuracy of 11 RMR prediction equations was evaluated for bias, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and Bland-Altman analysis. RESULTS Until more accurate prediction equations are developed, our findings recommend using the formulas by Cunningham (-29.8 kcal/day, limits of agreement -318.7 and +259.1 kcal/day) and Park (-0.842 kcal/day, limits of agreement -198.9 and +196.9 kcal/day) for prediction of RMR when studying male adolescent athletes. Among the new prediction formulas reviewed, the formula included in the fat-free mass as a variable [RMR = 730.4 + 15 × fat-free mass] is paramount when examining athletes. CONCLUSIONS The RMR prediction equation developed in this study is better in assessing the resting metabolic rate of Korean athletic adolescents. PMID:26244075

  11. Comparison between measured and predicted resting metabolic rate in moderately active adolescents.

    PubMed

    De Lorenzo A; Bertini, I; Puijia, A; Testolin, G; Testolin, C

    1999-09-01

    The aim of this study was to check the validity of predictive equations for the calculation of resting metabolic rate (RMR) in moderately active adolescents. The RMR was measured in a sample of 25 healthy 15.5-18.2-year-old boys practicing soccer. The RMR was assessed by indirect calorimetry for 30 min following an overnight fast. Body composition was estimated from skinfold thickness measurements. Among the available equations to predict RMR, we decided to use those a of Molnar et al., Harris-Benedict, Schofield, and Cunningham. Measured and predicted values were compared by means of a one-way ANOVA. Also the Bland-Altman test was performed in order to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction equations compared to the measured value. The measured RMR was found to be 1834 +/- 160 kcal/day (mean +/- SD), while the Molnar et al., Schofield, Harris-Benedict, and Cunningham predicted values were 1707 +/- 78, 1866 +/- 89, 1779 +/- 84 and 1830 +/- 87 kcal/day, respectively. On average, compared to the measured values only the Molnar et al. equation differed significantly. On an individual basis, all the equations demonstrated considerable variability between measured and predicted RMRs. The predicted values also differed significantly. As regards the moderately active subjects (16-18 years old), we recommend the use of the Schofield equation, based on simple anthropometric parameters and also that of Cunningham, even if the estimation or measurement of fat-free mass may be cumbersome for everyday pediatric use. PMID:10664318

  12. Infected honeybee foragers incur a higher loss in efficiency than in the rate of energetic gain

    PubMed Central

    Naug, Dhruba

    2014-01-01

    Parasites, by altering the nutritional and energetic state of their hosts, can significantly alter their foraging behaviour. In honeybees, an infection with Nosema ceranae has been shown to lower the energetic state of individual bees, bringing about changes in behaviours associated with foraging. Comparing the foraging trip times, hive times in between trips, and the crop contents of uninfected and infected foragers as they depart on foraging trips and return from them, this study examined how any differences in these variables influence alternative foraging currencies. The results show that infected bees take longer foraging trips, spend shorter time in the hive between successive trips and bring back less sugar from each trip. These changes have a stronger adverse effect on their efficiency of energetic gain as compared with their rate of energetic gain, which has important implications for individual and colony life history. PMID:25376802

  13. In vivo sub-femtoliter resolution photoacoustic microscopy with higher frame rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Szu-Yu; Lai, Yu-Hung; Huang, Kai-Chih; Cheng, Yu-Hsiang; Tseng, Tzu-Fang; Sun, Chi-Kuang

    2015-10-01

    Microscopy based on non-fluorescent absorption dye staining is widely used in various fields of biomedicine for 400 years. Unlike its fluorescent counterpart, non-fluorescent absorption microscopy lacks proper methodologies to realize its in vivo applications with a sub-femtoliter 3D resolution. Regardless of the most advanced high-resolution photoacoustic microscopy, sub-femtoliter spatial resolution is still unattainable, and the imaging speed is relatively slow. In this paper, based on the two-photon photoacoustic mechanism, we demonstrated a in vivo label free laser-scanning photoacoustic imaging modality featuring high frame rates and sub-femtoliter 3D resolution simultaneously, which stands as a perfect solution to 3D high resolution non-fluorescent absorption microscopy. Furthermore, we first demonstrated in vivo label-free two-photon acoustic microscopy on the observation of non-fluorescent melanin distribution within mouse skin.

  14. In vivo sub-femtoliter resolution photoacoustic microscopy with higher frame rates

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Szu-Yu; Lai, Yu-Hung; Huang, Kai-Chih; Cheng, Yu-Hsiang; Tseng, Tzu-Fang; Sun, Chi-Kuang

    2015-01-01

    Microscopy based on non-fluorescent absorption dye staining is widely used in various fields of biomedicine for 400 years. Unlike its fluorescent counterpart, non-fluorescent absorption microscopy lacks proper methodologies to realize its in vivo applications with a sub-femtoliter 3D resolution. Regardless of the most advanced high-resolution photoacoustic microscopy, sub-femtoliter spatial resolution is still unattainable, and the imaging speed is relatively slow. In this paper, based on the two-photon photoacoustic mechanism, we demonstrated a in vivo label free laser-scanning photoacoustic imaging modality featuring high frame rates and sub-femtoliter 3D resolution simultaneously, which stands as a perfect solution to 3D high resolution non-fluorescent absorption microscopy. Furthermore, we first demonstrated in vivo label-free two-photon acoustic microscopy on the observation of non-fluorescent melanin distribution within mouse skin. PMID:26487363

  15. Higher Levels of Psychopathy Predict Poorer Motor Control: Implications for Understanding the Psychopathy Construct

    PubMed Central

    Robinson, Michael D.; Bresin, Konrad

    2014-01-01

    A review of the literature suggests that higher levels of psychopathy may be linked to less effective behavioral control. However, several commentators have urged caution in making statements of this type in the absence of direct evidence. In two studies (total N = 142), moment-to-moment accuracy in a motor control task was examined as a function of dimensional variations in psychopathy in an undergraduate population. As hypothesized, motor control was distinctively worse at higher levels of psychopathy relative to lower levels, both as a function of primary and secondary psychopathy and particularly their shared variance. These novel findings provide support for the idea that motor control systematically varies by psychopathy, in a basic manner, consistent with views of psychopathy emphasizing lesser control. PMID:25419045

  16. Specific psychological variables predict quality of diet in women of lower, but not higher, educational attainment.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Wendy; Schlotz, Wolff; Crozier, Sarah; Skinner, Timothy C; Haslam, Cheryl; Robinson, Sian; Inskip, Hazel; Cooper, Cyrus; Barker, Mary

    2011-02-01

    Our previous work found that perceived control over life was a significant predictor of the quality of diet of women of lower educational attainment. In this paper, we explore the influence on quality of diet of a range of psychological and social factors identified during focus group discussions, and specify the way this differs in women of lower and higher educational attainment. We assessed educational attainment, quality of diet, and psycho-social factors in 378 women attending Sure Start Children's Centres and baby clinics in Southampton, UK. Multiple-group path analysis showed that in women of lower educational attainment, the effect of general self-efficacy on quality of diet was mediated through perceptions of control and through food involvement, but that there were also direct effects of social support for healthy eating and having positive outcome expectancies. There was no effect of self-efficacy, perceived control or outcome expectancies on the quality of diet of women of higher educational attainment, though having more social support and food involvement were associated with improved quality of diet in these women. Our analysis confirms our hypothesis that control-related factors are more important in determining dietary quality in women of lower educational attainment than in women of higher educational attainment. PMID:21078352

  17. Specific psychological variables predict quality of diet in women of lower, but not higher, educational attainment

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Wendy; Schlotz, Wolff; Crozier, Sarah; Skinner, Timothy C; Haslam, Cheryl; Robinson, Sian; Inskip, Hazel; Cooper, Cyrus; Barker, Mary

    2013-01-01

    Our previous work found that perceived control over life was a significant predictor of the quality of diet of women of lower educational attainment. In this paper, we explore the influence on quality of diet of a range of psychological and social factors identified during focus group discussions, and specify the way this differs in women of lower and higher educational attainment. We assessed educational attainment, quality of diet, and psycho-social factors in 378 women attending Sure Start Children’s Centres and baby clinics in Southampton, UK. Multiple-group path analysis showed that in women of lower educational attainment, the effect of general self-efficacy on quality of diet was mediated through perceptions of control and through food involvement, but that there were also direct effects of social support for healthy eating and having positive outcome expectancies. There was no effect of self-efficacy, perceived control or outcome expectancies on the quality of diet of women of higher educational attainment, though having more social support and food involvement were associated with improved quality of diet in these women. Our analysis confirms our hypothesis that control-related factors are more important in determining dietary quality in women of lower educational attainment than in women of higher educational attainment. PMID:21078352

  18. Cochlea-scaled spectral entropy predicts rate-invariant intelligibility of temporally distorted sentences1

    PubMed Central

    Stilp, Christian E.; Kiefte, Michael; Alexander, Joshua M.; Kluender, Keith R.

    2010-01-01

    Some evidence, mostly drawn from experiments using only a single moderate rate of speech, suggests that low-frequency amplitude modulations may be particularly important for intelligibility. Here, two experiments investigated intelligibility of temporally distorted sentences across a wide range of simulated speaking rates, and two metrics were used to predict results. Sentence intelligibility was assessed when successive segments of fixed duration were temporally reversed (exp. 1), and when sentences were processed through four third-octave-band filters, the outputs of which were desynchronized (exp. 2). For both experiments, intelligibility decreased with increasing distortion. However, in exp. 2, intelligibility recovered modestly with longer desynchronization. Across conditions, performances measured as a function of proportion of utterance distorted converged to a common function. Estimates of intelligibility derived from modulation transfer functions predict a substantial proportion of the variance in listeners’ responses in exp. 1, but fail to predict performance in exp. 2. By contrast, a metric of potential information, quantified as relative dissimilarity (change) between successive cochlear-scaled spectra, is introduced. This metric reliably predicts listeners’ intelligibility across the full range of speaking rates in both experiments. Results support an information-theoretic approach to speech perception and the significance of spectral change rather than physical units of time. PMID:20968382

  19. Predicting the possibility of not yet observed situations as higher goal of space environment standards.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nymmik, Rikho

    Space environment models are intended for fairly describing the quantitative behavior of nature space environment. Usually, they are constructed on the basis of some experimental data set generalization, which is characteristic of the conditions that were taking place during measurement period. It is often to see that such models state and postulate realities of the past. The typical example of this point of view is the situation around extremely SEP events. During dozens of years models of such events have been based on the largest occurrences observed, which features were measured by some instruments with the reliability that was not always analyzed. It is obvious, that this way does not agree with reality, because any new extreme event conflicts with it. From this follow that space environment models can not be created by using numerical observed data only, when such data are changing in time, or have the probability nature. The model's goal is not only describing the average environment characteristics, but the predicting of extreme ones too. Such a prediction can only be result of analyzing the causes that stimulate environment change and taking them into account in model parameters. In this report we present the analysis of radiation environment formed by solar-generated high energy particles. A progresses and failures of SEP event modeling attempts are also shown and analyzed.

  20. Predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) - Predictions from models on gastric evacuation and bioenergetics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansson, S.; Rudstam, L. G.; Kitchell, J.F.; Hilden, M.; Johnson, B.L.; Peppard, P.E.

    1996-01-01

    We compared four different methods for estimating predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus moi hua). Three estimates, based on gastric evacuation rates, came from an ICES multispecies working group and the fourth from a bioenergetics model. The bioenergetics model was developed from a review of literature on cod physiology. The three gastric evacuation rate models produced very different prey consumption estimates for small (2 kg) fish. For most size and age classes, the bioenergetics model predicted food consumption rates intermediate to those predicted by the gastric evacuation models. Using the standard ICES model and the average population abundance and age structure for 1974-1989, annual, prey consumption by the North Sea cod population (age greater than or equal to 1) was 840 kilotons. The other two evacuation rate models produced estimates of 1020 and 1640 kilotons, respectively. The bioenergetics model estimate was 1420 kilotons. The major differences between models were due to consumption rate estimates for younger age groups of cod. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

  1. Integrative neural networks model for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters for ungauged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atieh, M.; Mehltretter, S. L.; Gharabaghi, B.; Rudra, R.

    2015-12-01

    One of the most uncertain modeling tasks in hydrology is the prediction of ungauged stream sediment load and concentration statistics. This study presents integrated artificial neural networks (ANN) models for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters (rating curve coefficient α and rating curve exponent β) for ungauged basins. The ANN models integrate a comprehensive list of input parameters to improve the accuracy achieved; the input parameters used include: soil, land use, topographic, climatic, and hydrometric data sets. The ANN models were trained on the randomly selected 2/3 of the dataset of 94 gauged streams in Ontario, Canada and validated on the remaining 1/3. The developed models have high correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.86 for α and β, respectively. The ANN model for the rating coefficient α is directly proportional to rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, and apportionment entropy disorder index, whereas it is inversely proportional to vegetation cover and mean annual snowfall. The ANN model for the rating exponent β is directly proportional to mean annual precipitation, the apportionment entropy disorder index, main channel slope, standard deviation of daily discharge, and inversely proportional to the fraction of basin area covered by wetlands and swamps. Sediment rating curves are essential tools for the calculation of sediment load, concentration-duration curve (CDC), and concentration-duration-frequency (CDF) analysis for more accurate assessment of water quality for ungauged basins.

  2. Feasibility, Reliability and Predictive Value Of In-Ambulance Heart Rate Variability Registration

    PubMed Central

    van Hooff, Robbert-Jan; De Smedt, Ann; Nagels, Guy; Hubloue, Ives; De Keyser, Jacques; Brouns, Raf

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart rate variability (HRV) is a parameter of autonomic nervous system function. A decrease of HRV has been associated with disease severity, risk of complications and prognosis in several conditions. Objective We aim to investigate the feasibility and the reliability of in-ambulance HRV registration during emergency interventions, and to evaluate the association between prehospital HRV parameters, patient characteristics, vital parameters and short-term outcome. Methods We conducted a prospective study using a non-invasive 2-lead ECG registration device in 55 patients transported by the paramedic intervention team of the Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel. HRV assessment included time domain parameters, frequency domain parameters, nonlinear analysis, and time-frequency analysis. The correlation between HRV parameters and patient and outcome characteristics was analyzed and compared to controls. Results Artifact and ectopic detection rates were higher in patients during ambulance transportation compared to controls in resting conditions, yet technical reasons precluding in-ambulance HRV analysis occurred in only 9.6% of cases. HRV acquisition was possible without safety issues or interference with routine emergency care. Reliability of the results was considered sufficient for Sample entropy (SampEn), good for the ratio of low frequency and high frequency components (LF/HF ratio) in the frequency and the time frequency domain, and excellent for the triangular interpolation of the NN interval histogram (TINN), and for the short-term scaling exponent of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA α1). HRV indices were significantly reduced inpatients with unfavorable outcome compared to patients with favorable outcome and controls. Multivariate analysis identified lower DFA α1 as an independent predictor of unfavorable outcome (OR, 0.155; 95% CI 0.024–0.966; p = 0.049). Conclusion In-ambulance HRV registration is technically and operationally feasible and

  3. Predicting organic hydrogen atom transfer rate constants using the Marcus cross relation

    PubMed Central

    Warren, Jeffrey J.; Mayer, James M.

    2010-01-01

    Chemical reactions that involve net hydrogen atom transfer (HAT) are ubiquitous in chemistry and biology, from the action of antioxidants to industrial and metalloenzyme catalysis. This report develops and validates a procedure to predict rate constants for HAT reactions of oxyl radicals (RO•) in various media. Our procedure uses the Marcus cross relation (CR) and includes adjustments for solvent hydrogen-bonding effects on both the kinetics and thermodynamics of the reactions. Kinetic solvent effects (KSEs) are included by using Ingold’s model, and thermodynamic solvent effects are accounted for by using an empirical model developed by Abraham. These adjustments are shown to be critical to the success of our combined model, referred to as the CR/KSE model. As an initial test of the CR/KSE model we measured self-exchange and cross rate constants in different solvents for reactions of the 2,4,6-tri-tert-butylphenoxyl radical and the hydroxylamine 2,2′-6,6′-tetramethyl-piperidin-1-ol. Excellent agreement is observed between the calculated and directly determined cross rate constants. We then extend the model to over 30 known HAT reactions of oxyl radicals with OH or CH bonds, including biologically relevant reactions of ascorbate, peroxyl radicals, and α-tocopherol. The CR/KSE model shows remarkable predictive power, predicting rate constants to within a factor of 5 for almost all of the surveyed HAT reactions. PMID:20215463

  4. Informatics Technology Mimics Ecology: Dense, Mutualistic Collaboration Networks Are Associated with Higher Publication Rates

    PubMed Central

    Sorani, Marco D.

    2012-01-01

    Information technology (IT) adoption enables biomedical research. Publications are an accepted measure of research output, and network models can describe the collaborative nature of publication. In particular, ecological networks can serve as analogies for publication and technology adoption. We constructed network models of adoption of bioinformatics programming languages and health IT (HIT) from the literature. We selected seven programming languages and four types of HIT. We performed PubMed searches to identify publications since 2001. We calculated summary statistics and analyzed spatiotemporal relationships. Then, we assessed ecological models of specialization, cooperativity, competition, evolution, biodiversity, and stability associated with publications. Adoption of HIT has been variable, while scripting languages have experienced rapid adoption. Hospital systems had the largest HIT research corpus, while Perl had the largest language corpus. Scripting languages represented the largest connected network components. The relationship between edges and nodes was linear, though Bioconductor had more edges than expected and Perl had fewer. Spatiotemporal relationships were weak. Most languages shared a bioinformatics specialization and appeared mutualistic or competitive. HIT specializations varied. Specialization was highest for Bioconductor and radiology systems. Specialization and cooperativity were positively correlated among languages but negatively correlated among HIT. Rates of language evolution were similar. Biodiversity among languages grew in the first half of the decade and stabilized, while diversity among HIT was variable but flat. Compared with publications in 2001, correlation with publications one year later was positive while correlation after ten years was weak and negative. Adoption of new technologies can be unpredictable. Spatiotemporal relationships facilitate adoption but are not sufficient. As with ecosystems, dense, mutualistic

  5. Concerns and perceptions immediately following Superstorm Sandy: ratings for property damage were higher than for health issues

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Governmental officials, health and safety professionals, early responders, and the public are interested in the perceptions and concerns of people faced with a crisis, especially during and immediately after a disaster strikes. Reliable information can lead to increased individual and community preparedness for upcoming crises. The objective of this research was to evaluate concerns of coastal and central New Jersey residents within the first 100 days of Superstorm Sandy’s landfall. Respondents living in central New Jersey and Jersey shore communities were differentially impacted by the storm, with shore residents having higher evacuation rates (47% vs. 13%), more flood waters in their homes, longer power outages (average 23 vs. 6 days), and longer periods without Internet (29 vs. 6 days). Ratings of concerns varied both among and within categories as a function of location (central vs. coastal New Jersey), stressor level (ranging from 1 to 3 for combinations of power outages, high winds, and flooding), and demographics. Respondents were most concerned about property damage, health, inconveniences, ecological services, and nuclear power plants in that order. Respondents from the shore gave higher ratings to the concerns within each major category, compared to those from central Jersey. Four findings have implications for understanding future risk, recovery, and resiliency: (1) respondents with the highest stressor level (level 3) were more concerned about water damage than others, (2) respondents with flood damage were more concerned about water drainage and mold than others, (3) respondents with the highest stressor levels rated all ecological services higher than others, and (4) shore respondents rated all ecological services higher than central Jersey residents. These data provide information to design future preparedness plans, improve resiliency for future severe weather events, and reduce public health risk. PMID:27011757

  6. Per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates do not predict clinically relevant patient dose errors

    SciTech Connect

    Nelms, Benjamin E.; Zhen Heming; Tome, Wolfgang A.

    2011-02-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this work is to determine the statistical correlation between per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates and several clinically relevant, anatomy-based dose errors for per-patient IMRT QA. The intent is to assess the predictive power of a common conventional IMRT QA performance metric, the Gamma passing rate per beam. Methods: Ninety-six unique data sets were created by inducing four types of dose errors in 24 clinical head and neck IMRT plans, each planned with 6 MV Varian 120-leaf MLC linear accelerators using a commercial treatment planning system and step-and-shoot delivery. The error-free beams/plans were used as ''simulated measurements'' (for generating the IMRT QA dose planes and the anatomy dose metrics) to compare to the corresponding data calculated by the error-induced plans. The degree of the induced errors was tuned to mimic IMRT QA passing rates that are commonly achieved using conventional methods. Results: Analysis of clinical metrics (parotid mean doses, spinal cord max and D1cc, CTV D95, and larynx mean) vs IMRT QA Gamma analysis (3%/3 mm, 2/2, 1/1) showed that in all cases, there were only weak to moderate correlations (range of Pearson's r-values: -0.295 to 0.653). Moreover, the moderate correlations actually had positive Pearson's r-values (i.e., clinically relevant metric differences increased with increasing IMRT QA passing rate), indicating that some of the largest anatomy-based dose differences occurred in the cases of high IMRT QA passing rates, which may be called ''false negatives.'' The results also show numerous instances of false positives or cases where low IMRT QA passing rates do not imply large errors in anatomy dose metrics. In none of the cases was there correlation consistent with high predictive power of planar IMRT passing rates, i.e., in none of the cases did high IMRT QA Gamma passing rates predict low errors in anatomy dose metrics or vice versa. Conclusions: There is a lack of correlation between

  7. Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.

    PubMed

    Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie

    2011-07-01

    1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. PMID:21418211

  8. Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

    2012-12-01

    The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with

  9. Appointing 'trained donation practitioners' results in a higher family consent rate in the Netherlands: a multicenter study.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Nichon E; van Leiden, Hendrik A; Haase-Kromwijk, Bernadette J J M; van der Meer, Nardo J M; Kruijff, Edwin Vorstius; van der Lely, Netty; van Zon, Hans; Meinders, Arend-Jan; Mosselman, Machteld; Hoitsma, Andries J

    2011-12-01

    The consent process for organ and tissue donation is complex, both for families and professionals. To help professionals in broaching this subject we performed a multicenter study. We compared family consent to donation in three hospitals between December 2007 and December 2009. In the intervention hospital, trained donation practitioners (TDP) guided 66 families throughout the time in the ICU until a decision regarding donation had been reached. In the first control hospital, without any family guidance or training, 107 families were approached. In the second control hospital 'hostesses', who were not trained in donation questions, supported 99 families during admittance. A total of 272 families were requested to donate. We primarily compared consent rates, but also asked families about their experiences through a questionnaire. Family consent rate was significantly higher in the intervention hospital: 57.6% (38/66), than in the control hospitals: 34.6% (37/107) and 39.4% (39/99). The 69% response rate to the questionnaire -~5 months after death - showed no confounding variables that could have influenced the consent rate. Appointing TDPs in the intervention hospital to guide families during admittance and the donation decision-making process, results in higher family consent rates. PMID:21902727

  10. The rate of neutron star binary mergers in the universe - Minimal predictions for gravity wave detectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phinney, E. S.

    1991-01-01

    Of the many sources which gravitational wave observatories might see, merging neutron star binaries are the most predictable. Their waveforms at the observable frequencies are easy to calculate. And three systems which will merge in less than a Hubble time have already been observed as binary pulsars: two in the disk of the Galaxy, and one in a globular cluster. From the lifetimes and positions of these, a lower limit to the merger rate in the Galaxy and globular cluster system are inferred with confidence. Taking the merger rate in other galaxies to scale with the star formation rate, the merger rate expected in the local universe is computed. An ultraconservative lower limit to the rate gives three per year within 1 Gpc. The best estimate, still conservative in that it considers only systems like those already observed, gives three per year within 200 Mpc. An upper limit of three mergers per year within 23/h Mpc is set by the rate of Type Ib supernovae. The rates of black hole binary mergers and black hole-neutron star binary mergers are model-dependent, but could be comparable to the given rate of neutron-star binary mergers.

  11. Designing safer chemicals: predicting the rates of metabolism of halogenated alkanes.

    PubMed Central

    Yin, H; Anders, M W; Korzekwa, K R; Higgins, L; Thummel, K E; Kharasch, E D; Jones, J P

    1995-01-01

    A computational model is presented that can be used as a tool in the design of safer chemicals. This model predicts the rate of hydrogen-atom abstraction by cytochrome P450 enzymes. Excellent correlations between biotransformation rates and the calculated activation energies (delta Hact) of the cytochrome P450-mediated hydrogen-atom abstractions were obtained for the in vitro biotransformation of six halogenated alkanes (1-fluoro-1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane, 1,1-difluoro-1,2,2-trichloroethane, 1,1,1-trifluro-2,2-dichloroethane, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoro-2-chloroethane, 1,1,1,2,2,-pentafluoroethane, and 2-bromo-2-chloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) with both rat and human enzyme preparations: In(rate, rat liver microsomes) = 44.99 - 1.79(delta Hact), r2 = 0.86; In(rate, human CYP2E1) = 46.99 - 1.77(delta Hact), r2 = 0.97 (rates are in nmol of product per min per nmol of cytochrome P450 and energies are in kcal/mol). Correlations were also obtained for five inhalation anesthetics (enflurane, sevoflurane, desflurane, methoxyflurane, and isoflurane) for both in vivo and in vitro metabolism by humans: In[F(-)]peak plasma = 42.87 - 1.57(delta Hact), r2 = 0.86. To our knowledge, these are the first in vivo human metabolic rates to be quantitatively predicted. Furthermore, this is one of the first examples where computational predictions and in vivo and in vitro data have been shown to agree in any species. The model presented herein provides an archetype for the methodology that may be used in the future design of safer chemicals, particularly hydrochlorofluorocarbons and inhalation anesthetics. PMID:7479940

  12. Bank recession processes, rates, and prediction, Lake Sakakawea, North Dakota, U.S.A.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, John R.; Sandberg, Brian S.; Millsop, Mark D.

    1988-03-01

    Bank recession at twenty stations along the eastern end of 286 km long Lake Sakakawea, North Dakota, measured regularly between 1983 and 1986, showed a recession range from essentially zero to almost 9 m yr -1 with an average of 1.6 m yr -1. Between 1969 and 1979, rates were greater, the declining rate a normal consequence of the factors affecting bank recession. Rates of recession vary with seasons, with 78% of the annual recession occurring during the warmer season (May-October) as a result of wave erosion. The remaining 22% occurs during thaw failure in spring. Prediction of ultimate (500 yr) bank recessions attempted using historical recession data, the three years of detailed field measurements, and regression analysis of the erosion factors. An equation, presented here, requires field measurement of bank orientation and height, batch width and composition, and slope of the offshore area. Effective fetch must be measured, as well. The resulting equation for the monthly warm season recession rate is: Rs=154.9 -, (18.8 √ A+ 25.1 √ B +10.1 √ c +6.9 √ 0+5.0 √ E + 1.1 √ F) where: A = sine of angle between bank orientation and dominant wind; B = offshore slope angle; C = beach width; D = bank height; E = effective fetch; and F = percentage of coarse beach clasts. The colder season recession percentage is: Rw = Rs [(2.05 D = 0.043 G) - 2/100] where D is bank height and G the bank orientation with respect to sun. The total yearly predicted recession (cm yr -1) is: Rt = 6 ( Rw) + 6 ( Rs) 6 being the number of months of "cold" and "warm" weather at Lake Sakakawea. For this rate to be projected into the future, it is necessary to assume a declining rate of recession, employing a parabolic trend. From this, the ultimate bank recession for Lake Sakakawea is predicted to range up to 542 m.

  13. Pretreatment Growth Rate Predicts Radiation Response in Vestibular Schwannomas

    SciTech Connect

    Niu, Nina N.; Niemierko, Andrzej; Larvie, Mykol; Curtin, Hugh; Loeffler, Jay S.; McKenna, Michael J.; Shih, Helen A.

    2014-05-01

    Purpose: Vestibular schwannomas (VS) are often followed without initial therapeutic intervention because many tumors do not grow and radiation therapy is associated with potential adverse effects. In an effort to determine whether maximizing initial surveillance predicts for later treatment response, the predictive value of preirradiation growth rate of VS on response to radiation therapy was assessed. Methods and Materials: Sixty-four patients with 65 VS were treated with single-fraction stereotactic radiation surgery or fractionated stereotactic radiation therapy. Pre- and postirradiation linear expansion rates were estimated using volumetric measurements on sequential magnetic resonance images (MRIs). In addition, postirradiation tumor volume change was classified as demonstrating shrinkage (ratio of volume on last follow-up MRI to MRI immediately preceding irradiation <80%), stability (ratio 80%-120%), or expansion (ratio >120%). The median pre- and postirradiation follow-up was 20.0 and 27.5 months, respectively. Seven tumors from neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) patients were excluded from statistical analyses. Results: In the 58 non-NF2 patients, there was a trend of correlation between pre- and postirradiation volume change rates (slope on linear regression, 0.29; P=.06). Tumors demonstrating postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 89%/year, and those without postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 41%/year (P=.02). As the preirradiation growth rate increased, the probability of postirradiation expansion also increased. Overall, 24.1% of tumors were stable, 53.4% experienced shrinkage, and 22.5% experienced expansion. Predictors of no postirradiation tumor expansion included no prior surgery (P=.01) and slower tumor growth rate (P=.02). The control of tumors in NF2 patients was only 43%. Conclusions: Radiation therapy is an effective treatment for VS, but tumors that grow quickly preirradiation may be

  14. Prediction of Liquid Sodium Flow Rate through the Core of the IBR-2M Reactor Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ososkov, G.; Pepelyshev, Yu.; Tsogtsaikhan, Ts.

    2016-02-01

    This paper presents an artificial neural network method for long-term prediction of liquid sodium flow rate through the core of the IBR-2M reactor. The nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) with local feedback connection has been considered as the most appropriate tool for such a prediction. The predicted results were compared with experimental values. NAR model predicts slow changes of liquid sodium flow rate up to two days with an error less than 5%.

  15. A model to predict evaporation rates in habitats used by container-dwelling mosquitoes.

    PubMed

    Bartlett-Healy, Kristen; Healy, Sean P; Hamilton, George C

    2011-05-01

    Container-dwelling mosquitoes use a wide variety of container habitats. The bottle cap is often cited as the smallest container habitat used by container species. When containers are small, the habitat conditions can greatly affect evaporation rates that in turn can affect the species dynamics within the container. An evaporation rate model was adapted to predict evaporation rates in mosquito container habitats. In both the laboratory and field, our model was able to predict actual evaporation rates. Examples of how the model may be applied are provided by examining the likelihood of Aedes albopictus (Skuse), Aedes aegypti (L.), and Culex pipiens pipiens (L.) completing their development within small-volume containers under typical environmental conditions and a range of temperatures. Our model suggests that under minimal direct sunlight exposure, both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus could develop within a bottle cap before complete evaporation. Our model shows that under the environmental conditions when a plastic field container was sampled, neither Ae. albopictus or Cx. p. pipiens could complete development in that particular container before the water evaporated. Although rainfall could replenish the habitat, the effects of evaporation would increase larval density, which could in turn further decrease developmental rates. PMID:21661337

  16. A predictive model for the temperature relaxation rate in dense plasmas

    SciTech Connect

    Daligault, Jerome; Dimonte, Guy

    2008-01-01

    We present and validate a simple model for the electron-ion temperature relaxation rate in plasmas that applies over a wide range of plasma temperatures and densities, including weakly-coupled, non-degenerate as well as strongly-coupled, degenerate plasmas. Electron degeneracy and static correlation effects between electrons and ions are shown to play a cumulative role that, at low temperature, lead to relaxation rates a few times smaller than when these effects are neglected. We predict the evolution of the relaxation in dense hydrogen plasmas from the fully degenerate to the non-degenerate limit.

  17. Pretraining Cortical Thickness Predicts Subsequent Perceptual Learning Rate in a Visual Search Task.

    PubMed

    Frank, Sebastian M; Reavis, Eric A; Greenlee, Mark W; Tse, Peter U

    2016-03-01

    We report that preexisting individual differences in the cortical thickness of brain areas involved in a perceptual learning task predict the subsequent perceptual learning rate. Participants trained in a motion-discrimination task involving visual search for a "V"-shaped target motion trajectory among inverted "V"-shaped distractor trajectories. Motion-sensitive area MT+ (V5) was functionally identified as critical to the task: after 3 weeks of training, activity increased in MT+ during task performance, as measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging. We computed the cortical thickness of MT+ from anatomical magnetic resonance imaging volumes collected before training started, and found that it significantly predicted subsequent perceptual learning rates in the visual search task. Participants with thicker neocortex in MT+ before training learned faster than those with thinner neocortex in that area. A similar association between cortical thickness and training success was also found in posterior parietal cortex (PPC). PMID:25576537

  18. Material properties of lithium fluoride for predicting XUV laser ablation rate and threshold fluence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blejchař, Tomáś; Nevrlý, Václav; Vašinek, Michal; Dostál, Michal; Pečínka, Lukáś; Dlabka, Jakub; Stachoň, Martin; Juha, Libor; Bitala, Petr; Zelinger, Zdeněk.; Pira, Peter; Wild, Jan

    2015-05-01

    This paper deals with prediction of extreme ultraviolet (XUV) laser ablation of lithium fluoride at nanosecond timescales. Material properties of lithium fluoride were determined based on bibliographic survey. These data are necessary for theoretical estimation of surface removal rate in relevance to XUV laser desorption/ablation process. Parameters of XUV radiation pulses generated by the Prague capillary-discharge laser (CDL) desktop system were assumed in this context. Prediction of ablation curve and threshold laser fluence for lithium fluoride was performed employing XUV-ABLATOR code. Quasi-random sampling approach was used for evaluating its predictive capabilities in the means of variance and stability of model outputs in expected range of uncertainties. These results were compared to experimental data observed previously.

  19. A new approach for the prediction of the neutron-induced SEU rate

    SciTech Connect

    Vial, C.; Palau, J.M.; Gasiot, J.; Calvet, M.C.; Fourtine, S.

    1998-12-01

    A new approach for SEU rate prediction in components submitted to neutron environment is presented. The method aims to take into account the characteristics of the secondary particles in terms of electrical effect. So, in addition to the critical energy/charge criterion generally used until now, two criteria are tentatively proposed: a critical LET and a limited distance in which energy must be deposited. The starting point of each computation is a common neutron-silicon interaction database.

  20. Measuring the activities of higher organisms in activated sludge by means of mechanical shearing pretreatment and oxygen uptake rate.

    PubMed

    Hao, Xiaodi; Wang, Qilin; Cao, Yali; van Loosdrecht, Mark C M

    2010-07-01

    A pretreatment method was developed to assess the activities of higher organisms. The method is based on mechanical shearing to damage the large cells of the protozoan and metazoan community in activated sludge. The procedure was confirmed through experimentation to be effective in determining the activities of higher organisms by comparing oxygen uptake rates (OURs) before and after the higher organisms were eradicated. Shearing led to disintegration of flocs, which could be effectively reconstituted by centrifugation. The reconstitution of the sludge flocs was essential since otherwise the activity of the floc mass would be too high due to lack of diffusion limitation. Mechanical shearing had no influence on the morphology, quantity and specific activity of yeasts, and it was inferred that bacteria smaller than yeasts in size would also not be influenced by the applied shearing procedure. Moreover, the effect of filamentous organisms on the measured activities of higher organisms was experimentally demonstrated and analyzed, and determined to be so weak that it could be ignored. Based on these tests, five typical activated sludge processes were selected to measure the contribution of higher organisms to the original OUR. The measured activities of higher organisms ranged from 9.4 to 25.0% of the original OURs. PMID:20605188

  1. Predicting the emission rate of volatile organic compounds from vinyl flooring.

    PubMed

    Cox, Steven S; Little, John C; Hodgson, Alfred T

    2002-02-15

    A model for predicting the rate at which a volatile organic compound (VOC) is emitted from a diffusion-controlled material is validated for three contaminants (n-pentadecane, n-tetradecane, and phenol) found in vinyl flooring (VF). Model parameters are the initial VOC concentration in the material phase (C0), the material/air partition coefficient (K), and the material-phase diffusion coefficient (D). The model was verified by comparing predicted gas-phase concentrations to data obtained during small-scale chamber tests and by comparing predicted material-phase concentrations to those measured at the conclusion of the chamber tests. Chamber tests were conducted with the VF placed top-side-up and bottom-side-up. With the exception of phenol and within the limits of experimental precision, the mass of VOCs recovered in the gas-phase balances the mass emitted from the material phase. The model parameters (C0, K, and D) were measured using procedures completely independent of the chamber test. Gas- and material-phase predictions compare well to the bottom-side-up chamber data. The lower emission rates for the top-side-up orientation may be explained by the presence of a low-permeability surface layer. The sink effect of the stainless steel chamber surface was shown to be negligible. PMID:11878387

  2. Distributed patterns of event-related potentials predict subsequent ratings of abstract stimulus attributes.

    PubMed

    Bode, Stefan; Bennett, Daniel; Stahl, Jutta; Murawski, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    Exposure to pleasant and rewarding visual stimuli can bias people's choices towards either immediate or delayed gratification. We hypothesised that this phenomenon might be based on carry-over effects from a fast, unconscious assessment of the abstract 'time reference' of a stimuli, i.e. how the stimulus relates to one's personal understanding and connotation of time. Here we investigated whether participants' post-experiment ratings of task-irrelevant, positive background visual stimuli for the dimensions 'arousal' (used as a control condition) and 'time reference' were related to differences in single-channel event-related potentials (ERPs) and whether they could be predicted from spatio-temporal patterns of ERPs. Participants performed a demanding foreground choice-reaction task while on each trial one task-irrelevant image (depicting objects, people and scenes) was presented in the background. Conventional ERP analyses as well as multivariate support vector regression (SVR) analyses were conducted to predict participants' subsequent ratings. We found that only SVR allowed both 'arousal' and 'time reference' ratings to be predicted during the first 200 ms post-stimulus. This demonstrates an early, automatic semantic stimulus analysis, which might be related to the high relevance of 'time reference' to everyday decision-making and preference formation. PMID:25271850

  3. Distributed Patterns of Event-Related Potentials Predict Subsequent Ratings of Abstract Stimulus Attributes

    PubMed Central

    Bode, Stefan; Bennett, Daniel; Stahl, Jutta; Murawski, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    Exposure to pleasant and rewarding visual stimuli can bias people's choices towards either immediate or delayed gratification. We hypothesised that this phenomenon might be based on carry-over effects from a fast, unconscious assessment of the abstract ‘time reference’ of a stimuli, i.e. how the stimulus relates to one's personal understanding and connotation of time. Here we investigated whether participants' post-experiment ratings of task-irrelevant, positive background visual stimuli for the dimensions ‘arousal’ (used as a control condition) and ‘time reference’ were related to differences in single-channel event-related potentials (ERPs) and whether they could be predicted from spatio-temporal patterns of ERPs. Participants performed a demanding foreground choice-reaction task while on each trial one task-irrelevant image (depicting objects, people and scenes) was presented in the background. Conventional ERP analyses as well as multivariate support vector regression (SVR) analyses were conducted to predict participants' subsequent ratings. We found that only SVR allowed both ‘arousal’ and ‘time reference’ ratings to be predicted during the first 200 ms post-stimulus. This demonstrates an early, automatic semantic stimulus analysis, which might be related to the high relevance of ‘time reference’ to everyday decision-making and preference formation. PMID:25271850

  4. Low Reproductive Rate Predicts Species Sensitivity to Habitat Loss: A Meta-Analysis of Wetland Vertebrates

    PubMed Central

    Quesnelle, Pauline E.; Lindsay, Kathryn E.; Fahrig, Lenore

    2014-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that species with greater mobility and/or higher reproductive rates are less sensitive to habitat loss than species with lower mobility and/or reproductive rates by conducting a meta-analysis of wetland vertebrate responses to wetland habitat loss. We combined data from 90 studies conducted worldwide that quantified the relationship between wetland amount in a landscape and population abundance of at least one wetland species to determine if mobility (indexed as home range size and body length) and annual reproductive rate influence species responses to wetland loss. When analyzed across all taxa, animals with higher reproductive rates were less sensitive to wetland loss. Surprisingly, we did not find an effect of mobility on response to wetland loss. Overall, wetland mammals and birds were more sensitive to wetland loss than were reptiles and amphibians. Our results suggest that dispersal between habitat patches is less important than species’ reproductive rates for population persistence in fragmented landscapes. This implies that immigration and colonization rate is most strongly related to reproduction, which determines the total number of potential colonists. PMID:24651675

  5. Comparative analysis of predicted plastid-targeted proteomes of sequenced higher plant genomes.

    PubMed

    Schaeffer, Scott; Harper, Artemus; Raja, Rajani; Jaiswal, Pankaj; Dhingra, Amit

    2014-01-01

    Plastids are actively involved in numerous plant processes critical to growth, development and adaptation. They play a primary role in photosynthesis, pigment and monoterpene synthesis, gravity sensing, starch and fatty acid synthesis, as well as oil, and protein storage. We applied two complementary methods to analyze the recently published apple genome (Malus × domestica) to identify putative plastid-targeted proteins, the first using TargetP and the second using a custom workflow utilizing a set of predictive programs. Apple shares roughly 40% of its 10,492 putative plastid-targeted proteins with that of the Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) plastid-targeted proteome as identified by the Chloroplast 2010 project and ∼57% of its entire proteome with Arabidopsis. This suggests that the plastid-targeted proteomes between apple and Arabidopsis are different, and interestingly alludes to the presence of differential targeting of homologs between the two species. Co-expression analysis of 2,224 genes encoding putative plastid-targeted apple proteins suggests that they play a role in plant developmental and intermediary metabolism. Further, an inter-specific comparison of Arabidopsis, Prunus persica (Peach), Malus × domestica (Apple), Populus trichocarpa (Black cottonwood), Fragaria vesca (Woodland Strawberry), Solanum lycopersicum (Tomato) and Vitis vinifera (Grapevine) also identified a large number of novel species-specific plastid-targeted proteins. This analysis also revealed the presence of alternatively targeted homologs across species. Two separate analyses revealed that a small subset of proteins, one representing 289 protein clusters and the other 737 unique protein sequences, are conserved between seven plastid-targeted angiosperm proteomes. Majority of the novel proteins were annotated to play roles in stress response, transport, catabolic processes, and cellular component organization. Our results suggest that the current state of knowledge regarding

  6. Spatially resolved flux measurements of NOx from London suggest significantly higher emissions than predicted by inventories.

    PubMed

    Vaughan, Adam R; Lee, James D; Misztal, Pawel K; Metzger, Stefan; Shaw, Marvin D; Lewis, Alastair C; Purvis, Ruth M; Carslaw, David C; Goldstein, Allen H; Hewitt, C Nicholas; Davison, Brian; Beevers, Sean D; Karl, Thomas G

    2016-07-18

    To date, direct validation of city-wide emissions inventories for air pollutants has been difficult or impossible. However, recent technological innovations now allow direct measurement of pollutant fluxes from cities, for comparison with emissions inventories, which are themselves commonly used for prediction of current and future air quality and to help guide abatement strategies. Fluxes of NOx were measured using the eddy-covariance technique from an aircraft flying at low altitude over London. The highest fluxes were observed over central London, with lower fluxes measured in suburban areas. A footprint model was used to estimate the spatial area from which the measured emissions occurred. This allowed comparison of the flux measurements to the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for NOx, with scaling factors used to account for the actual time of day, day of week and month of year of the measurement. The comparison suggests significant underestimation of NOx emissions in London by the NAEI, mainly due to its under-representation of real world road traffic emissions. A comparison was also carried out with an enhanced version of the inventory using real world driving emission factors and road measurement data taken from the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). The measurement to inventory agreement was substantially improved using the enhanced version, showing the importance of fully accounting for road traffic, which is the dominant NOx emission source in London. In central London there was still an underestimation by the inventory of 30-40% compared with flux measurements, suggesting significant improvements are still required in the NOx emissions inventory. PMID:27098421

  7. Semantic Factors Predict the Rate of Lexical Replacement of Content Words

    PubMed Central

    Vejdemo, Susanne; Hörberg, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The rate of lexical replacement estimates the diachronic stability of word forms on the basis of how frequently a proto-language word is replaced or retained in its daughter languages. Lexical replacement rate has been shown to be highly related to word class and word frequency. In this paper, we argue that content words and function words behave differently with respect to lexical replacement rate, and we show that semantic factors predict the lexical replacement rate of content words. For the 167 content items in the Swadesh list, data was gathered on the features of lexical replacement rate, word class, frequency, age of acquisition, synonyms, arousal, imageability and average mutual information, either from published databases or gathered from corpora and lexica. A linear regression model shows that, in addition to frequency, synonyms, senses and imageability are significantly related to the lexical replacement rate of content words–in particular the number of synonyms that a word has. The model shows no differences in lexical replacement rate between word classes, and outperforms a model with word class and word frequency predictors only. PMID:26820737

  8. Semantic Factors Predict the Rate of Lexical Replacement of Content Words.

    PubMed

    Vejdemo, Susanne; Hörberg, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The rate of lexical replacement estimates the diachronic stability of word forms on the basis of how frequently a proto-language word is replaced or retained in its daughter languages. Lexical replacement rate has been shown to be highly related to word class and word frequency. In this paper, we argue that content words and function words behave differently with respect to lexical replacement rate, and we show that semantic factors predict the lexical replacement rate of content words. For the 167 content items in the Swadesh list, data was gathered on the features of lexical replacement rate, word class, frequency, age of acquisition, synonyms, arousal, imageability and average mutual information, either from published databases or gathered from corpora and lexica. A linear regression model shows that, in addition to frequency, synonyms, senses and imageability are significantly related to the lexical replacement rate of content words-in particular the number of synonyms that a word has. The model shows no differences in lexical replacement rate between word classes, and outperforms a model with word class and word frequency predictors only. PMID:26820737

  9. Predictive Models of Recombination Rate Variation across the Drosophila melanogaster Genome

    PubMed Central

    Adrian, Andrew B.; Corchado, Johnny Cruz; Comeron, Josep M.

    2016-01-01

    In all eukaryotic species examined, meiotic recombination, and crossovers in particular, occur non‐randomly along chromosomes. The cause for this non-random distribution remains poorly understood but some specific DNA sequence motifs have been shown to be enriched near crossover hotspots in a number of species. We present analyses using machine learning algorithms to investigate whether DNA motif distribution across the genome can be used to predict crossover variation in Drosophila melanogaster, a species without hotspots. Our study exposes a combinatorial non-linear influence of motif presence able to account for a significant fraction of the genome-wide variation in crossover rates at all genomic scales investigated, from 20% at 5-kb to almost 70% at 2,500-kb scale. The models are particularly predictive for regions with the highest and lowest crossover rates and remain highly informative after removing sub-telomeric and -centromeric regions known to have strongly reduced crossover rates. Transcriptional activity during early meiosis and differences in motif use between autosomes and the X chromosome add to the predictive power of the models. Moreover, we show that population-specific differences in crossover rates can be partly explained by differences in motif presence. Our results suggest that crossover distribution in Drosophila is influenced by both meiosis-specific chromatin dynamics and very local constitutive open chromatin associated with DNA motifs that prevent nucleosome stabilization. These findings provide new information on the genetic factors influencing variation in recombination rates and a baseline to study epigenetic mechanisms responsible for plastic recombination as response to different biotic and abiotic conditions and stresses. PMID:27492232

  10. Predictive Models of Recombination Rate Variation across the Drosophila melanogaster Genome.

    PubMed

    Adrian, Andrew B; Corchado, Johnny Cruz; Comeron, Josep M

    2016-01-01

    In all eukaryotic species examined, meiotic recombination, and crossovers in particular, occur non-randomly along chromosomes. The cause for this non-random distribution remains poorly understood but some specific DNA sequence motifs have been shown to be enriched near crossover hotspots in a number of species. We present analyses using machine learning algorithms to investigate whether DNA motif distribution across the genome can be used to predict crossover variation in Drosophila melanogaster, a species without hotspots. Our study exposes a combinatorial non-linear influence of motif presence able to account for a significant fraction of the genome-wide variation in crossover rates at all genomic scales investigated, from 20% at 5-kb to almost 70% at 2,500-kb scale. The models are particularly predictive for regions with the highest and lowest crossover rates and remain highly informative after removing sub-telomeric and -centromeric regions known to have strongly reduced crossover rates. Transcriptional activity during early meiosis and differences in motif use between autosomes and the X chromosome add to the predictive power of the models. Moreover, we show that population-specific differences in crossover rates can be partly explained by differences in motif presence. Our results suggest that crossover distribution in Drosophila is influenced by both meiosis-specific chromatin dynamics and very local constitutive open chromatin associated with DNA motifs that prevent nucleosome stabilization. These findings provide new information on the genetic factors influencing variation in recombination rates and a baseline to study epigenetic mechanisms responsible for plastic recombination as response to different biotic and abiotic conditions and stresses. PMID:27492232

  11. Predicting the reaction rate constants of micropollutants with hydroxyl radicals in water using QSPR modeling.

    PubMed

    Jin, Xiaohui; Peldszus, Sigrid; Huck, Peter M

    2015-11-01

    Quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models which predict hydroxyl radical rate constants (kOH) for a wide range of emerging micropollutants are a cost effective approach to assess the susceptibility of these contaminants to advanced oxidation processes (AOPs). A QSPR model for the prediction of kOH of emerging micropollutants from their physico-chemical properties was developed with special attention to model validation, applicability domain and mechanistic interpretation. In this study, 118 emerging micropollutants including those experimentally determined by the author and data collected from the literature, were randomly divided into the training set (n=89) and validation set (n=29). 951 DRAGON molecular descriptors were calculated for model development. The QSPR model was calibrated by applying forward multiple linear regression to the training set. As a result, 7 DRAGON descriptors were found to be important in predicting the kOH values which related to the electronegativity, polarizability, and double bonds, etc. of the compounds. With outliers identified and removed, the final model fits the training set very well and shows good robustness and internal predictivity. The model was then externally validated with the validation set showing good predictive power. The applicability domain of the model was also assessed using the Williams plot approach. Overall, the developed QSPR model provides a valuable tool for an initial assessment of the susceptibility of micropollutants to AOPs. PMID:26005810

  12. Behavioural models of population growth rates: implications for conservation and prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sutherland, William J; Norris, Ken

    2002-01-01

    Conservation biologists often wish to predict how vertebrate populations will respond to local or global changes in conditions such as those resulting from sea-level rise, deforestation, exploitation, genetically modified crops, global warming, human disturbance or from conservation activities. Predicting the consequences of such changes almost always requires understanding the population growth rate and the density dependence. Traditional means of directly measuring density dependence are often extremely difficult and have the problem that if the environment changes then it is necessary to remeasure the density dependence. We describe an alternative approach that does not require such long datasets and can be used to predict the density dependence under novel conditions. Game theory can be used to describe behavioural decisions that individuals make in response to interference, prey depletion, territorial behaviour or social dominance, and the resultant fitness consequences. It is then possible to predict how survival or reproductive output changes with population size. From this we can then make predictions about the responses of populations to environmental changes. We will illustrate how this can be applied to a range of species and a range of applied problems. PMID:12396518

  13. Implementation of Improved Transverse Shear Calculations and Higher Order Laminate Theory Into Strain Rate Dependent Analyses of Polymer Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Lin-Fa; Kim, Soo; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Goldberg, Robert K.

    2004-01-01

    A numerical procedure has been developed to investigate the nonlinear and strain rate dependent deformation response of polymer matrix composite laminated plates under high strain rate impact loadings. A recently developed strength of materials based micromechanics model, incorporating a set of nonlinear, strain rate dependent constitutive equations for the polymer matrix, is extended to account for the transverse shear effects during impact. Four different assumptions of transverse shear deformation are investigated in order to improve the developed strain rate dependent micromechanics model. The validities of these assumptions are investigated using numerical and theoretical approaches. A method to determine through the thickness strain and transverse Poisson's ratio of the composite is developed. The revised micromechanics model is then implemented into a higher order laminated plate theory which is modified to include the effects of inelastic strains. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate the mechanical response of composite plates under high strain rate loadings. Results show the transverse shear stresses cannot be neglected in the impact problem. A significant level of strain rate dependency and material nonlinearity is found in the deformation response of representative composite specimens.

  14. Speed discrimination predicts word but not pseudo-word reading rate in adults and children.

    PubMed

    Main, Keith L; Pestilli, Franco; Mezer, Aviv; Yeatman, Jason; Martin, Ryan; Phipps, Stephanie; Wandell, Brian

    2014-11-01

    Visual processing in the magnocellular pathway is a reputed influence on word recognition and reading performance. However, the mechanisms behind this relationship are still unclear. To explore this concept, we measured reading rate, speed-discrimination, and contrast detection thresholds in adults and children with a wide range of reading abilities. We found that speed discrimination thresholds are higher in children than in adults and are correlated with age. Speed discrimination thresholds are also correlated with reading rates but only for real words, not pseudo-words. Conversely, we found no correlations between contrast detection thresholds and the reading rates. We also found no correlations between speed discrimination or contrast detection and WASI subtest scores. These findings indicate that familiarity is a factor in magnocellular operations that may influence reading rate. We suggest this effect supports the idea that the magnocellular pathway contributes to word reading through an analysis of letter position. PMID:25278418

  15. Speed discrimination predicts word but not pseudo-word reading rate in adults and children

    PubMed Central

    Main, Keith L.; Pestilli, Franco; Mezer, Aviv; Yeatman, Jason; Martin, Ryan; Phipps, Stephanie; Wandell, Brian

    2014-01-01

    Word familiarity may affect magnocellular processes of word recognition. To explore this idea, we measured reading rate, speed-discrimination, and contrast detection thresholds in adults and children with a wide range of reading abilities. We found that speed-discrimination thresholds are higher in children than in adults and are correlated with age. Speed discrimination thresholds are also correlated with reading rate, but only for words, not for pseudo-words. Conversely, we found no correlation between contrast sensitivity and reading rate and no correlation between speed discrimination thresholds WASI subtest scores. These findings support the position that reading rate is influenced by magnocellular circuitry attuned to the recognition of familiar word-forms. PMID:25278418

  16. Variable selection and regression analysis for the prediction of mortality rates associated with foodborne diseases.

    PubMed

    Amene, E; Hanson, L A; Zahn, E A; Wild, S R; Döpfer, D

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to apply a novel statistical method for variable selection and a model-based approach for filling data gaps in mortality rates associated with foodborne diseases using the WHO Vital Registration mortality dataset. Correlation analysis and elastic net regularization methods were applied to drop redundant variables and to select the most meaningful subset of predictors. Whenever predictor data were missing, multiple imputation was used to fill in plausible values. Cluster analysis was applied to identify similar groups of countries based on the values of the predictors. Finally, a Bayesian hierarchical regression model was fit to the final dataset for predicting mortality rates. From 113 potential predictors, 32 were retained after correlation analysis. Out of these 32 predictors, eight with non-zero coefficients were selected using the elastic net regularization method. Based on the values of these variables, four clusters of countries were identified. The uncertainty of predictions was large for countries within clusters lacking mortality rates, and it was low for a cluster that had mortality rate information. Our results demonstrated that, using Bayesian hierarchical regression models, a data-driven clustering of countries and a meaningful subset of predictors can be used to fill data gaps in foodborne disease mortality. PMID:26785774

  17. Prediction of corrosion rates of water distribution pipelines according to aggressive corrosive water in Korea.

    PubMed

    Chung, W S; Yu, M J; Lee, H D

    2004-01-01

    The drinking water network serving Korea has been used for almost 100 years. Therefore, pipelines have suffered various degrees of deterioration due to aggressive environments. The pipe breaks were caused by in-external corrosion, water hammer, surface loading, etc. In this paper, we focused on describing corrosion status in water distribution pipes in Korea and reviewing some methods to predict corrosion rates. Results indicate that corrosive water of lakes was more aggressive than river water and the winter was more aggressive compared to other seasons. The roughness growth rates of Dongbok lake showed 0.23 mm/year. The high variation of corrosion rates is controlled by the aging pipes and smaller diameter. Also the phenolphthalein test on a cementitious core of cement mortar lined ductile cast iron pipe indicated the pipes over 15 years old had lost 50-100% of their lime active cross sectional area. PMID:14982159

  18. Higher TSH can be used as an additional risk factor in prediction of malignancy in euthyroid thyroid nodules evaluated by cytology based on Bethesda system.

    PubMed

    Baser, Husniye; Topaloglu, Oya; Tam, Abbas Ali; Evranos, Berna; Alkan, Afra; Sungu, Nuran; Dumlu, Ersin Gurkan; Ersoy, Reyhan; Cakir, Bekir

    2016-08-01

    Recently, it has been suggested that thyrotropin (TSH) concentration can be used as a marker for prediction of thyroid malignancy. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between TSH levels and prediction of malignancy in euthyroid patients with different Bethesda categories. The data of 1433 euthyroid patients with 3206 thyroid nodules who underwent thyroidectomy were screened retrospectively. The preoperative cytology results, thyroid function tests, thyroid autoantibodies, and presence of histopathological Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) were recorded. Of the 1433 patients, 585 (40.8 %) had malignant and 848 (59.2 %) had benign histopathology. Malignant group had smaller nodule size, elevated TSH levels, and higher rate of presence of HT compared to benign group (p < 0.001, all). Cytology results of 3206 nodules were as follows: 832 nondiagnostic (ND), 1666 benign, 392 atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS), 68 follicular neoplasm/suspicious for follicular neoplasm (FN/SFN), 133 suspicious for malignancy (SM), and 115 malignant. Both SM and malignant cytology groups had higher TSH levels than other 4 Bethesda categories (p < 0.05, all). Benign cytology group had significantly lower TSH levels compared to other cytology groups (p < 0.05, all). Patients with malignant final histopathology in ND and AUS/FLUS cytology groups had significantly higher TSH levels compared to patients with benign final histopathology (p < 0.05, all). Moreover, TSH levels showed to increase from Bethesda categories II to VI. In addition to cytology, higher TSH levels can be used as a supplementary marker in prediction of malignancy in certain Bethesda categories. PMID:26972701

  19. Predicting rates of isotopic turnover across the animal kingdom: a synthesis of existing data.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Stephen M; Crowther, Thomas W

    2015-05-01

    The stable isotopes of carbon ((12)C, (13)C) and nitrogen ((14)N, (15)N) represent powerful tools in food web ecology, providing a wide range of dietary information in animal consumers. However, identifying the temporal window over which a consumer's isotopic signature reflects its diet requires an understanding of elemental incorporation, a process that varies from days to years across species and tissue types. Though theory predicts body size and temperature are likely to control incorporation rates, this has not been tested empirically across a morphologically and phylogenetically diverse range of taxa. Readily available estimates of this relationship would, however, aid in the design of stable isotope food web investigations and improve the interpretation of isotopic data collected from natural systems. Using literature-derived turnover estimates from animal species ranging in size from 1 mg to 2000 kg, we develop a predictive tool for stable isotope ecologists, allowing for estimation of incorporation rates in the structural tissues of entirely novel taxa. In keeping with metabolic scaling theory, we show that isotopic turnover rates of carbon and nitrogen in whole organisms and muscle tissue scale allometrically with body mass raised approximately to the power -0.19, an effect modulated by body temperature. This relationship did not, however, apply to incorporation rates in splanchnic tissues, which were instead dependent on the thermoregulation tactic employed by an organism, being considerably faster in endotherms than ectotherms. We believe the predictive turnover equations we provide can improve the design of experiments and interpretation of results obtained in future stable isotopic food web studies. PMID:25482029

  20. The Effect of Differential Growth Rates across Plants on Spectral Predictions of Physiological Parameters

    PubMed Central

    Rapaport, Tal; Hochberg, Uri; Rachmilevitch, Shimon; Karnieli, Arnon

    2014-01-01

    Leaves of various ages and positions in a plant's canopy can present distinct physiological, morphological and anatomical characteristics, leading to complexities in selecting a single leaf for spectral representation of an entire plant. A fortiori, as growth rates between canopies differ, spectral-based comparisons across multiple plants – often based on leaves' position but not age – becomes an even more challenging mission. This study explores the effect of differential growth rates on the reflectance variability between leaves of different canopies, and its implication on physiological predictions made by widely-used spectral indices. Two distinct irrigation treatments were applied for one month, in order to trigger the formation of different growth rates between two groups of grapevines. Throughout the experiment, the plants were physiologically and morphologically monitored, while leaves from every part of their canopies were spectrally and histologically sampled. As the control vines were constantly developing new leaves, the water deficit plants were experiencing growth inhibition, resulting in leaves of different age at similar nodal position across the treatments. This modification of the age-position correlation was characterized by a near infrared reflectance difference between younger and older leaves, which was found to be exponentially correlated (R2 = 0.98) to the age-dependent area of intercellular air spaces within the spongy parenchyma. Overall, the foliage of the control plant became more spectrally variable, creating complications for intra- and inter-treatment leaf-based comparisons. Of the derived indices, the Structure-Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) was found indifferent to the age-position effect, allowing the treatments to be compared at any nodal position, while a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based stomatal conductance prediction was substantially affected by differential growth rates. As various biotic and

  1. Clinical application of fluctuation dissipation theory - Prediction of heart rate response to spontaneous breathing trial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niestemski, Liang R.; Chen, Man; Prevost, Robert; McRae, Michael; Cholleti, Sharath; Najarro, Gabriel; Buchman, Timothy G.; Deem, Michael W.

    2013-03-01

    Contrary to the traditional view of the healthy physiological state as being a single static state, variation in physiologic variables has more recently been suggested to be a key component of the healthy state. Indeed, aging and disease are characterized by a loss of such variability. We apply the conceptual framework of fluctuation-dissipation theory (FDT) to predict the response to a common clinical intervention from historical fluctuations in physiologic time series data. The non-equilibrium FDT relates the response of a system to a perturbation to natural fluctuations in the stationary state of the system. We seek to understand with the FDT a common clinical perturbation, the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT), in which mechanical ventilation is briefly suspended while the patient breathes freely for a period of time. As a stress upon the heart of the patient, the SBT can be characterized as a perturbation of heart rate dynamics. A non-equilibrium, but steady-state FDT allows us to predict the heart rate recovery after the SBT stress. We show that the responses of groups of similar patients to the spontaneous breathing trial can be predicted by this approach. This mathematical framework may serve as part of the basis for personalized critical care.

  2. Prediction of road traffic death rate using neural networks optimised by genetic algorithm.

    PubMed

    Jafari, Seyed Ali; Jahandideh, Sepideh; Jahandideh, Mina; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari

    2015-01-01

    Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are realised as a main cause of public health problems at global, regional and national levels. Therefore, prediction of road traffic death rate will be helpful in its management. Based on this fact, we used an artificial neural network model optimised through Genetic algorithm to predict mortality. In this study, a five-fold cross-validation procedure on a data set containing total of 178 countries was used to verify the performance of models. The best-fit model was selected according to the root mean square errors (RMSE). Genetic algorithm, as a powerful model which has not been introduced in prediction of mortality to this extent in previous studies, showed high performance. The lowest RMSE obtained was 0.0808. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the use of Genetic algorithm as a powerful optimiser which selects the best input feature set to be fed into the neural networks. Seven factors have been known as the most effective factors on the road traffic mortality rate by high accuracy. The gained results displayed that our model is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better method for assessing the influence of road traffic mortality risk factors. PMID:24304230

  3. Flower vs. Leaf Feeding by Pieris brassicae: Glucosinolate-Rich Flower Tissues are Preferred and Sustain Higher Growth Rate

    PubMed Central

    Smallegange, R. C.; Blatt, S. E.; Harvey, J. A.; Agerbirk, N.; Dicke, M.

    2007-01-01

    Interactions between butterflies and caterpillars in the genus Pieris and plants in the family Brassicaceae are among the best explored in the field of insect–plant biology. However, we report here for the first time that Pieris brassicae, commonly assumed to be a typical folivore, actually prefers to feed on flowers of three Brassica nigra genotypes rather than on their leaves. First- and second-instar caterpillars were observed to feed primarily on leaves, whereas late second and early third instars migrated via the small leaves of the flower branches to the flower buds and flowers. Once flower feeding began, no further leaf feeding was observed. We investigated growth rates of caterpillars having access exclusively to either leaves of flowering plants or flowers. In addition, we analyzed glucosinolate concentrations in leaves and flowers. Late-second- and early-third-instar P. brassicae caterpillars moved upward into the inflorescences of B. nigra and fed on buds and flowers until the end of the final (fifth) instar, after which they entered into the wandering stage, leaving the plant in search of a pupation site. Flower feeding sustained a significantly higher growth rate than leaf feeding. Flowers contained levels of glucosinolates up to five times higher than those of leaves. Five glucosinolates were identified: the aliphatic sinigrin, the aromatic phenyethylglucosinolate, and three indole glucosinolates: glucobrassicin, 4-methoxyglucobrassicin, and 4-hydroxyglucobrassicin. Tissue type and genotype were the most important factors affecting levels of identified glucosinolates. Sinigrin was by far the most abundant compound in all three genotypes. Sinigrin, 4-hydroxyglucobrassicin, and phenylethylglucosinolate were present at significantly higher levels in flowers than in leaves. In response to caterpillar feeding, sinigrin levels in both leaves and flowers were significantly higher than in undamaged plants, whereas 4-hydroxyglucobrassicin leaf levels were

  4. Predictions for mass-loss rates and terminal wind velocities of massive O-type stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muijres, L. E.; Vink, Jorick S.; de Koter, A.; Müller, P. E.; Langer, N.

    2012-01-01

    Context. Mass loss from massive stars forms an important aspect of the evolution of massive stars, as well as for the enrichment of the surrounding interstellar medium. Aims: Our goal is to predict accurate mass-loss rates and terminal wind velocities. These quantities can be compared to empirical values, thereby testing radiation-driven wind models. One specific topical issue is that of the so-called "weak-wind problem", where empirically derived mass-loss rates and (modified) wind momenta fall orders of magnitude short of predicted values. Methods: We employ an established Monte Carlo model and a recently suggested new line acceleration formalism to solve the wind dynamics more consistently. Results: We provide a new grid of mass-loss rates and terminal wind velocities of O-type stars, and compare the values to empirical results. Our models fail to provide mass-loss rates for main-sequence stars below a luminosity of log(L/L⊙) = 5.2, where we appear to run into a fundamental limit. At luminosities below this critical value there is insufficient momentum transferred to the wind in the region below the sonic point in order to kick-start the acceleration of the flow. This problem occurs at almost the exact location of the onset of the weak-wind problem. For O dwarfs, the boundary between being able to start a wind, and failing to do so, is at spectral type O6/O6.5. The direct cause of this failure for O6.5 stars is a combination of the lower luminosity and a lack of Fe v lines at the base of the wind. This might indicate that - in addition to radiation pressure - another mechanism is required to provide the necessary driving to initiate the wind acceleration. Conclusions: For stars more luminous than 105.2 L⊙, our new mass-loss rates are in excellent agreement with the mass-loss prescription by Vink et al. (2000, A&A, 362, 295) using our terminal wind velocities as input to this recipe. This implies that the main assumption entering the method of the Vink et al

  5. Assessment of reaction-rate predictions of a collision-energy approach for chemical reactions in atmospheric flows.

    SciTech Connect

    Gallis, Michail A.; Bond, Ryan Bomar; Torczynski, John Robert

    2010-06-01

    A recently proposed approach for the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method to calculate chemical-reaction rates is assessed for high-temperature atmospheric species. The new DSMC model reproduces measured equilibrium reaction rates without using any macroscopic reaction-rate information. Since it uses only molecular properties, the new model is inherently able to predict reaction rates for arbitrary non-equilibrium conditions. DSMC non-equilibrium reaction rates are compared to Park's phenomenological nonequilibrium reaction-rate model, the predominant model for hypersonic-flow-field calculations. For near-equilibrium conditions, Park's model is in good agreement with the DSMC-calculated reaction rates. For far-from-equilibrium conditions, corresponding to a typical shock layer, significant differences can be found. The DSMC predictions are also found to be in very good agreement with measured and calculated non-equilibrium reaction rates, offering strong evidence that this is a viable and reliable technique to predict chemical reaction rates.

  6. Reduced Heart Rate Variability Predicts Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Adults with Type 1 Diabetes and Controls Without Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Ticiana C.; Ehrlich, James; Hunter, Cortney M.; Kinney, Gregory L.; Rewers, Marian

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Aim Reduced heart rate variability (HRV) is a manifestation of cardiac autonomic neuropathy, a known complication of type 1 diabetes (T1D). We evaluated whether HRV predicted coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression. Methods Subjects between 19 and 56 years of age with T1D or those without diabetes from the Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes study underwent supine deep breathing 12-lead electrocardiograms. The SD of consecutive RR intervals was used as a measure of HRV. CAC was measured at two visits 6.0 ± 0.5 years apart. Progression of CAC was defined as an increase in square root transformed CAC volume of ≥2.5 mm3, excluding patients who had cardiovascular events during follow-up. Results Reduced HRV was associated with older age, higher hemoglobin A1c, elevated albuminuria, CAC volume at baseline, and increased fibrinogen. Higher HRV at baseline was associated with lower likelihood CAC progression (odds ratio = 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.56–0.90, P = 0.005), and the adjustment for known cardiovascular risk factors did not change this strong association, including adjustment for inflammatory markers. Conclusions Reduced HRV predicted progression of CAC in adults with and without T1D. This association further supports the participation of autonomic neuropathy in the atherosclerosis process. PMID:21128843

  7. Pain predictability reverses valence ratings of a relief-associated stimulus

    PubMed Central

    Andreatta, Marta; Mühlberger, Andreas; Glotzbach-Schoon, Evelyn; Pauli, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Relief from pain is positively valenced and entails reward-like properties. Notably, stimuli that became associated with pain relief elicit reward-like implicit responses too, but are explicitly evaluated by humans as aversive. Since the unpredictability of pain makes pain more aversive, this study examined the hypotheses that the predictability of pain also modulates the valence of relief-associated stimuli. In two studies, we presented one conditioned stimulus (FORWARDCS+) before a painful unconditioned stimulus (US), another stimulus (BACKWARDCS+) after the painful US, and a third stimulus (CS−) was never associated with the US. In Study 1, FORWARDCS+ predicted half of the USs while the other half was delivered unwarned and followed by BACKWARDCS+. In Study 2, all USs were predicted by FORWARDCS+ and followed by BACKWARDCS+. In Study 1 both FORWARDCS+ and BACKWARDCS+ were rated as negatively valenced and high arousing after conditioning, while BACKWARDCS+ in Study 2 acquired positive valence and low arousal. Startle amplitude was significantly attenuated to BACKWARDCS+ compared to FORWARDCS+ in Study 2, but did not differ among CSs in Study 1. In summary, predictability of aversive events reverses the explicit valence of a relief-associated stimulus. PMID:24068989

  8. PAN AIR - A higher order panel method for predicting subsonic or supersonic linear potential flows about arbitrary configurations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carmichael, R. L.; Erickson, L. L.

    1981-01-01

    PAN AIR is a computer program for predicting subsonic or supersonic linear potential flow about arbitrary configurations. It uses linear source and quadratic doublet strength distributions. These higher-order distributions have been implemented in a manner that greatly reduces the numerical stability problems that have plagued earlier attempts to make surface paneling methods work successfully for supersonic flow. PAN AIR's problem-solving capability, numerical approach, modeling features, and program architecture are described. Numerical results are presented for a variety of geometries at supersonic Mach numbers.

  9. What is preexisting strength? Predicting free association probabilities, similarity ratings, and cued recall probabilities.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Douglas L; Dyrdal, Gunvor M; Goodmon, Leilani B

    2005-08-01

    Measuring lexical knowledge poses a challenge to the study of the influence of preexisting knowledge on the retrieval of new memories. Many tasks focus on word pairs, but words are embedded in associative networks, so how should preexisting pair strength be measured? It has been measured by free association, similarity ratings, and co-occurrence statistics. Researchers interpret free association response probabilities as unbiased estimates of forward cue-to-target strength. In Study 1, analyses of large free association and extralist cued recall databases indicate that this interpretation is incorrect. Competitor and backward strengths bias free association probabilities, and as with other recall tasks, preexisting strength is described by a ratio rule. In Study 2, associative similarity ratings are predicted by forward and backward, but not by competitor, strength. Preexisting strength is not a unitary construct, because its measurement varies with method. Furthermore, free association probabilities predict extralist cued recall better than do ratings and co-occurrence statistics. The measure that most closely matches the criterion task may provide the best estimate of the identity of preexisting strength. PMID:16447386

  10. QSPR prediction of the hydroxyl radical rate constant of water contaminants.

    PubMed

    Borhani, Tohid Nejad Ghaffar; Saniedanesh, Mohammadhossein; Bagheri, Mehdi; Lim, Jeng Shiun

    2016-07-01

    In advanced oxidation processes (AOPs), the aqueous hydroxyl radical (HO) acts as a strong oxidant to react with organic contaminants. The hydroxyl radical rate constant (kHO) is important for evaluating and modelling of the AOPs. In this study, quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) method is applied to model the hydroxyl radical rate constant for a diverse dataset of 457 water contaminants from 27 various chemical classes. The constricted binary particle swarm optimization and multiple-linear regression (BPSO-MLR) are used to obtain the best model with eight theoretical descriptors. An optimized feed forward neural network (FFNN) is developed to investigate the complex performance of the selected molecular parameters with kHO. Although the FFNN prediction results are more accurate than those obtained using BPSO-MLR, the application of the latter is much more convenient. Various internal and external validation techniques indicate that the obtained models could predict the logarithmic hydroxyl radical rate constants of a large number of water contaminants with less than 4% absolute relative error. Finally, the above-mentioned proposed models are compared to those reported earlier and the structural factors contributing to the AOP degradation efficiency are discussed. PMID:27124124

  11. Prediction of bioremediation rates at multiple fixed-site soil centers

    SciTech Connect

    Hater, G.R.; Green, R.B.; Bower, D.A. Jr.; Solsrud, T.; Barbush, J.A.

    1995-12-31

    The measurement of petroleum hydrocarbon biodegradation rates for field-scale soil remediations typically is approached by evaluating reductions in soil hydrocarbon concentrations during treatment until a threshold value is achieved. The ability to predict when soil sampling and laboratory analysis is warranted is an important aspect of cost-effective remediation activities. Monitoring of soil gas CO{sub 2} and O{sub 2} has been widely used to estimate hydrocarbon degradation by aerobic bacteria. In this study, O{sub 2}, CO{sub 2}, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), methane, and temperature were monitored over the course of operating three vacuum-heap soil remediation facilities. The vacuum heaps, located in landfills, commercially treat petroleum-contaminated soil. From initial concentrations ranging from 994 mg/kg to 4,500 mg/kg, petroleum hydrocarbon levels were reduced to below regulatory levels in less than 60 days. An observed decrease in O{sub 2} utilization and CO{sub 2} production over time suggest that these parameters are useful in predicting the course of remediation. However, biodegradation rates calculated from soil gas measurements significantly underestimated the mass of petroleum removal calculated from soil analysis. The measured rate of biodegradation appeared to be proportional to the initial hydrocarbon concentration.

  12. Predicting key malaria transmission factors, biting and entomological inoculation rates, using modelled soil moisture in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Patz, J A; Strzepek, K; Lele, S; Hedden, M; Greene, S; Noden, B; Hay, S I; Kalkstein, L; Beier, J C

    1998-10-01

    While malaria transmission varies seasonally, large inter-annual heterogeneity of malaria incidence occurs. Variability in entomological parameters, biting rates and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) have been strongly associated with attack rates in children. The goal of this study was to assess the weather's impact on weekly biting and EIR in the endemic area of Kisian, Kenya. Entomological data collected by the U.S. Army from March 1986 through June 1988 at Kisian, Kenya was analysed with concurrent weather data from nearby Kisumu airport. A soil moisture model of surface-water availability was used to combine multiple weather parameters with landcover and soil features to improve disease prediction. Modelling soil moisture substantially improved prediction of biting rates compared to rainfall; soil moisture lagged two weeks explained up to 45% of An. gambiae biting variability, compared to 8% for raw precipitation. For An. funestus, soil moisture explained 32% variability, peaking after a 4-week lag. The interspecies difference in response to soil moisture was significant (P < 0.00001). A satellite normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) of the study site yielded a similar correlation (r = 0.42 An. gambiae). Modelled soil moisture accounted for up to 56% variability of An. gambiae EIR, peaking at a lag of six weeks. The relationship between temperature and An. gambiae biting rates was less robust; maximum temperature r2 = -0.20, and minimum temperature r2 = 0.12 after lagging one week. Benefits of hydrological modelling are compared to raw weather parameters and to satellite NDVI. These findings can improve both current malaria risk assessments and those based on El Niño forecasts or global climate change model projections. PMID:9809915

  13. Using Student and Institutional Characteristics to Predict Graduation Rates at Community Colleges: New Developments in Performance Measures and Institutional Effectiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moosai, Susan; Walker, David A.; Floyd, Deborah L.

    2011-01-01

    Prediction models using graduation rate as the performance indicator were obtained for community colleges in California, Florida, and Michigan. The results of this study indicated that institutional graduation rate could be predicted effectively from an aggregate of student and institutional characteristics. A performance measure was computed, the…

  14. Interest Level in 2-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorder Predicts Rate of Verbal, Nonverbal, and Adaptive Skill Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2?years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill…

  15. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  16. Higher rate of fat oxidation during rowing compared with cycling ergometer exercise across a range of exercise intensities.

    PubMed

    Egan, B; Ashley, D T; Kennedy, E; O'Connor, P L; O'Gorman, D J

    2016-06-01

    The relative contribution of carbohydrate and fat oxidation to energy expenditure during exercise is dependent on variables including exercise intensity, mode, and recruited muscle mass. This study investigated patterns of substrate utilization during two non-weightbearing exercise modalities, namely cycling and rowing. Thirteen young, moderately trained males performed a continuous incremental (3-min stages) exercise test to exhaustion on separate occasions on an electronically braked cycle (CYC) ergometer and an air-braked rowing (ROW) ergometer, respectively. On two further occasions, participants performed a 20-min steady-state exercise bout at ∼50%VO2peak on the respective modalities. Despite similar oxygen consumption, rates of fat oxidation (FATox ) were ∼45% higher during ROW compared with CYC (P < 0.05) across a range of power output increments. The crossover point for substrate utilization occurred at a higher relative exercise intensity for ROW than CYC (57.8 ± 2.1 vs 42.1 ± 3.6%VO2peak , P < 0.05). During steady-state submaximal exercise, the higher FATox during ROW compared with CYC was maintained (P < 0.05), but absolute FATox were 42% (CYC) and 28% (ROW) lower than during incremental exercise. FATox is higher during ROW compared with CYC exercise across a range of exercise intensities matched for energy expenditure, and is likely as a consequence of larger muscle mass recruited during ROW. PMID:26060092

  17. Does slow embryo development predict a high aneuploidy rate on trophectoderm biopsy?

    PubMed

    Piccolomini, Mariana M; Nicolielo, Mariana; Bonetti, Tatiana C S; Motta, Eduardo L A; Serafini, Paulo C; Alegretti, Jose Roberto

    2016-09-01

    The aneuploidy rates in expanded blastocysts biopsied on days 5 and 6 development were assessed in women undergoing IVF followed by array comparative genomic hybridization. This study included 1171 expanded blastocysts from 465 patients. Among the 465 patients, 215 and 141 underwent embryo biopsy on day 5 and day 6 (46.2% and 30.3%, respectively), and 109 underwent biopsy on both days 5 and 6 (23.4%). The cycles of 206 women were cancelled because only aneuploidy embryos were present (44.3%). The aneuploid embryos were classified according to the type as single, double or complex aneuploidy. No differences were observed in the distributions of these three categories according to the day of the biopsy. The aneuploidy rate was also evaluated according to maternal age, and was found to be higher in older patients; however, no differences in this rate were detected between embryos biopsied on days 5 and 6 according to maternal age. Biopsy was carried out when blastocysts reached the expanded stage. The embryos biopsied on day 6 had a higher rate of aneuploidy (69.9%) than those biopsied on day 5 (61.4%); however, the euploid embryos transferred had similar chances for successful and healthy gestation. PMID:27377770

  18. Heart rate multiscale entropy at three hours predicts hospital mortality in 3,154 trauma patients.

    PubMed

    Norris, Patrick R; Anderson, Steven M; Jenkins, Judith M; Williams, Anna E; Morris, John A

    2008-07-01

    Complexity is a measure of variation and randomness potentially indicating improvement or deterioration in critically ill patients. Previously, we have shown integer heart rate (HR) multiscale entropy (MSE), an indicator of complexity, predicts death based on long duration (12 h) and dense (>or=0.4 Hz) windows of HR data. However, such restrictions reduce the use of MSE in the clinical setting. We hypothesized MSE predicts death using HR data of shorter duration and lower density. During the initial 24 h of intensive care unit stay, 3,154 patients had at least 3 h of continuous integer HR sampled. The first continuous window of 3, 6, 9, and 12 h was selected for each patient regardless of density, and an open-source MSE algorithm was applied (M. Costa, www.physionet.org; m = 2; r = 0.15). Risk of death based on MSE, alone and with covariates (age, sex, injury severity score), was assessed using randomly selected logistic regression in half of the cases. Area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) was computed in the other half in subgroups having various durations and densities of HR data. At days 2.3 (median) and 4.9 (mean), 441 patients (14%) died. Multiscale entropy stratified patients by mortality and was an independent predictor of death using 3 h or more of data. Multiscale entropy alone (AUC = 0.66 - 0.71) predicted death comparably to covariates alone (AUC = 0.72). We conclude: (1) Heart rate MSE within hours of admission predicts death occurring days later. (2) Multiscale entropy is robust to variation in bedside data duration and density occurring in a working intensive care unit. (3) Complexity may be a new clinical biomarker of outcome. PMID:18323736

  19. Study of Uncertainties of Predicting Space Shuttle Thermal Environment. [impact of heating rate prediction errors on weight of thermal protection system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fehrman, A. L.; Masek, R. V.

    1972-01-01

    Quantitative estimates of the uncertainty in predicting aerodynamic heating rates for a fully reusable space shuttle system are developed and the impact of these uncertainties on Thermal Protection System (TPS) weight are discussed. The study approach consisted of statistical evaluations of the scatter of heating data on shuttle configurations about state-of-the-art heating prediction methods to define the uncertainty in these heating predictions. The uncertainties were then applied as heating rate increments to the nominal predicted heating rate to define the uncertainty in TPS weight. Separate evaluations were made for the booster and orbiter, for trajectories which included boost through reentry and touchdown. For purposes of analysis, the vehicle configuration is divided into areas in which a given prediction method is expected to apply, and separate uncertainty factors and corresponding uncertainty in TPS weight derived for each area.

  20. Higher recovery rate of microorganisms from cerebrospinal fluid samples by the BACTEC culture system in comparison with agar culture.

    PubMed

    Calderaro, Adriana; Martinelli, Monica; Montecchini, Sara; Motta, Federica; Covan, Silvia; Larini, Sandra; Medici, Maria Cristina; Arcangeletti, Maria Cristina; Chezzi, Carlo; De Conto, Flora

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic value of the BACTEC FX blood culture (BC) system as compared to the agar culture (AC) of cerebrospinal fluid samples (CSF), evaluating the recovery rate and the time to detection of microorganisms in a 3.5-year period. From December 2011 to May 2015, 1326 CSF samples (694 patients) were submitted to both AC and BC. Among the 150 positive samples (96 patients), 165 microorganisms were detected: 81 by both the protocols, 77 by BC alone, and 7 by AC alone, demonstrating a higher detection rate of BC (95.8%) than AC (53.3%). Although BC presents some disadvantages, it is able to improve the yield of clinically significant microorganisms, and it could potentially reduce the reporting time as compared to AC. The results obtained highlighted the necessity of a combined approach for the successful detection of central nervous system microbial infections. PMID:26867963

  1. Quantum reaction rate from higher derivatives of the thermal flux-flux autocorrelation function at time zero.

    PubMed

    Ceotto, Michele; Yang, Sandy; Miller, William H

    2005-01-22

    A quantum theory of thermal reaction rates is presented which may be viewed as an extension of the recently developed "quantum instanton" (QI) model [W. H. Miller, Y. Zhao, M. Ceotto, and S. Yang, J. Chem. Phys. 119, 1329 (2003)]. It is based on using higher derivatives of the flux-flux autocorrelation function C(t) (as given by Miller, Schwartz, and Tromp) at t=0 to construct a short time approximation for C(t). Tests of this theory on 1d and collinear reactions, both symmetric and asymmetric, show it to be more accurate than the original QI model, giving rate constants to approximately 5% for a wide range of temperature. PMID:15740237

  2. Quantum reaction rate from higher derivatives of the thermal flux-flux autocorrelation function at time zero

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceotto, Michele; Yang, Sandy; Miller, William H.

    2005-01-01

    A quantum theory of thermal reaction rates is presented which may be viewed as an extension of the recently developed "quantum instanton" (QI) model [W. H. Miller, Y. Zhao, M. Ceotto, and S. Yang, J. Chem. Phys. 119, 1329 (2003)]. It is based on using higher derivatives of the flux-flux autocorrelation function C(t) (as given by Miller, Schwartz, and Tromp) at t=0 to construct a short time approximation for C(t). Tests of this theory on 1d and collinear reactions, both symmetric and asymmetric, show it to be more accurate than the original QI model, giving rate constants to ˜5% for a wide range of temperature.

  3. On modelling the Fast Radio Burst population and event rate predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bera, Apurba; Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Bharadwaj, Somnath; Bhat, N. D. Ramesh; Chengalur, Jayaram N.

    2016-04-01

    Assuming that Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) are of extragalactic origin, we have developed a formalism to predict the FRB detection rate and the redshift distribution of the detected events for a telescope with given parameters. We have adopted FRB 110220, for which the emitted pulse energy is estimated to be E0 = 5.4 × 1033 J, as the reference event. The formalism requires us to assume models for (a) pulse broadening due to scattering in the ionized intergalactic medium - we consider two different models for this, (b) the frequency spectrum of the emitted pulse - we consider a power-law model Eν ∝ ν-α with -5 ≤ α ≤ 5, and (c) the comoving number density of the FRB occurrence rate n(E, wi, z) - we ignore the z dependence and assume a fixed intrinsic pulse width wi = 1 ms for all the FRBs. The distribution of the emitted pulse energy E is modelled through (a) a delta function where all the FRBs have the same energy E = E0, and (b) a Schechter luminosity function where the energies have a spread around E0. The models are all normalized using the four FRBs detected by Thornton et al. Our model predictions for the Parkes telescope are all consistent with the inferred redshift distribution of the 14 FRBs detected there to date. We also find that scattering places an upper limit on the redshift of the FRBs detectable by a given telescope; for the Parkes telescope, this is z ˜ 2. Considering the upcoming Ooty Wide Field Array, we predict an FRB detection rate of ˜0.01 to ˜103 d-1.

  4. The 2-Oxoacid Dehydrogenase Complexes in Mitochondria Can Produce Superoxide/Hydrogen Peroxide at Much Higher Rates Than Complex I*

    PubMed Central

    Quinlan, Casey L.; Goncalves, Renata L. S.; Hey-Mogensen, Martin; Yadava, Nagendra; Bunik, Victoria I.; Brand, Martin D.

    2014-01-01

    Several flavin-dependent enzymes of the mitochondrial matrix utilize NAD+ or NADH at about the same operating redox potential as the NADH/NAD+ pool and comprise the NADH/NAD+ isopotential enzyme group. Complex I (specifically the flavin, site IF) is often regarded as the major source of matrix superoxide/H2O2 production at this redox potential. However, the 2-oxoglutarate dehydrogenase (OGDH), branched-chain 2-oxoacid dehydrogenase (BCKDH), and pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) complexes are also capable of considerable superoxide/H2O2 production. To differentiate the superoxide/H2O2-producing capacities of these different mitochondrial sites in situ, we compared the observed rates of H2O2 production over a range of different NAD(P)H reduction levels in isolated skeletal muscle mitochondria under conditions that favored superoxide/H2O2 production from complex I, the OGDH complex, the BCKDH complex, or the PDH complex. The rates from all four complexes increased at higher NAD(P)H/NAD(P)+ ratios, although the 2-oxoacid dehydrogenase complexes produced superoxide/H2O2 at high rates only when oxidizing their specific 2-oxoacid substrates and not in the reverse reaction from NADH. At optimal conditions for each system, superoxide/H2O2 was produced by the OGDH complex at about twice the rate from the PDH complex, four times the rate from the BCKDH complex, and eight times the rate from site IF of complex I. Depending on the substrates present, the dominant sites of superoxide/H2O2 production at the level of NADH may be the OGDH and PDH complexes, but these activities may often be misattributed to complex I. PMID:24515115

  5. Higher Rate of Tuberculosis in Second Generation Migrants Compared to Native Residents in a Metropolitan Setting in Western Europe

    PubMed Central

    Marx, Florian M.; Fiebig, Lena; Hauer, Barbara; Brodhun, Bonita; Glaser-Paschke, Gisela; Haas, Walter

    2015-01-01

    Background In Western Europe, migrants constitute an important risk group for tuberculosis, but little is known about successive generations of migrants. We aimed to characterize migration among tuberculosis cases in Berlin and to estimate annual rates of tuberculosis in two subsequent migrant generations. We hypothesized that second generation migrants born in Germany are at higher risk of tuberculosis compared to native (non-migrant) residents. Methods A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted. All tuberculosis cases reported to health authorities in Berlin between 11/2010 and 10/2011 were eligible. Interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire including demographic data, migration history of patients and their parents, and language use. Tuberculosis rates were estimated using 2011 census data. Results Of 314 tuberculosis cases reported, 154 (49.0%) participated. Of these, 81 (52.6%) were first-, 14 (9.1%) were second generation migrants, and 59 (38.3%) were native residents. The tuberculosis rate per 100,000 individuals was 28.3 (95CI: 24.0–32.6) in first-, 10.2 (95%CI: 6.1–16.6) in second generation migrants, and 4.6 (95%CI: 3.7–5.6) in native residents. When combining information from the standard notification variables country of birth and citizenship, the sensitivity to detect second generation migration was 28.6%. Conclusions There is a higher rate of tuberculosis among second generation migrants compared to native residents in Berlin. This may be explained by presumably frequent contact and transmission within migrant populations. Second generation migration is insufficiently captured by the surveillance variables country of birth and citizenship. Surveillance systems in Western Europe should allow for quantifying the tuberculosis burden in this important risk group. PMID:26061733

  6. Integration of scale-down experimentation and general rate modelling to predict manufacturing scale chromatographic separations.

    PubMed

    Gerontas, Spyridon; Asplund, Magnus; Hjorth, Rolf; Bracewell, Daniel G

    2010-10-29

    Chromatography is an essential downstream processing step in the production of biopharmaceuticals. Here we present an approach to chromatography scale-up using scale-down experimentation integrated with general rate modelling. This type of modelling takes account all contributions to the mass transfer kinetics providing process understanding. The model is calibrated using a 2.5 cm height, 1 ml column and used to predict chromatograms for 20 cm height columns from 40 ml to 160 L volume. Simulations were found to be in good agreement with experimental results. The envisaged approach could potentially reduce the number of experiments, shorten development time and reduce costs. PMID:20880533

  7. Prediction of water vapor transport rates across polyvinylchloride packaging systems using a novel radiotracer method

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, R.W.; Mulski, M.J.; Kuu, W.Y. )

    1990-09-01

    A radiotracer method is used to study the transport properties of water vapor in polyvinylchloride (PVC), a plastic commonly used in the packaging of parenteral solutions. Water vapor transport across a PVC film appears to be Fickian in nature. Using the steady-state solution of Fick's second law and the permeability coefficient of water vapor across the PVC film obtained using the described method, the predicted water vapor transport rate (WVTR) for a parenteral solution packaged in PVC is in reasonable agreement with actual WVTR as determined by weight loss under precisely controlled conditions.

  8. Using CFD Techniques to Predict Slosh Force Frequency and Damping Rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsell, Brandon; Gangadharan, Sathya; Chatman, Yadira; Sudermann, James

    2009-01-01

    Resonant effects and energy dissipation due to sloshing fuel inside propellant tanks are problems that arise in the initial design of any spacecraft or launch vehicle. A faster and more reliable method for calculating these effects during the design stages is needed. Using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques, a model of these fuel tanks can be created and used to predict important parameters such as resonant slosh frequency and damping rate. This initial study addresses the case of free surface slosh. Future studies will focus on creating models for tanks fitted with propellant management devices (PMD) such as diaphragms and baffles.

  9. Higher-frame-rate ultrasound imaging with reduced cross-talk by combining a synthetic aperture and spatial coded excitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishihara, Chizue; Ikeda, Teiichiro; Masuzawa, Hiroshi

    2016-04-01

    In recent clinical practice of ultrasound imaging, the importance of high-frame-rate imaging is growing. Simultaneous multiple transmission is one way to increase frame rate while maintaining a spatial resolution and signal-to-noise ratio. However, this technique has an inherent issue in that "cross-talk artifacts" appear between the multiple transmitted pulses. In this study, a novel method providing higher-frame-rate ultrasound imaging with reduced cross-talk by combining a synthetic aperture and spatial coded excitation is proposed. In the proposed method, two coded transmission beams are simultaneously excited during beam steering in the lateral direction. Parallel receive beamforming is then performed in the region around individual transmission beams. Decoding is carried out by using two beamformed signals from a region where laterally neighboring transmission beams overlap. All decoded beamformed signals are then synthesized coherently. The proposed method was evaluated using a simulated phantom image under the assumption of imaging with a general sector probe. Results showed that the method achieved twice the frame rate while maintaining image resolution (105%) and reducing cross-talk artifacts from -37 dB to less than -57 dB.

  10. The enigma of higher income immigrants with lower rates of health insurance coverage in the United States.

    PubMed

    Bass, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This research compares rates of health insurance coverage among middle-class non-elderly immigrants to native-born American adults using data from the March 1996-2000 Supplements to the Current Population Survey. Probit regressions reveal that immigrants were three times as likely to be uninsured at income levels exceeding $50,000, controlling for economic, demographic and immigrant-related characteristics. Work-related characteristics, income, martial status and nativity considerably influenced health insurance status for all adults, but work-related factors had the strongest effect on immigrants' rates of coverage. Why, ceteris paribus, immigrants have lower coverage rates is unclear. Many low-income and recent immigrants face barriers to access due to legal status or job sector. But lower rates of health insurance coverage which persist among long-time residents at higher income levels cannot be explained by such barriers, a finding highly relevant for policy makers. Encouraging uninsured immigrants to opt into health plans voluntarily will remain a challenge. PMID:19834995

  11. Safely Increase the Minimally Invasive Hysterectomy Rate: A Novel Three-Tiered Preoperative Categorization System Can Predict the Difficulty for Benign Disease

    PubMed Central

    Andryjowicz, Esteban; Wray, Teresa B; Reinaldo Ruiz, V; Rudolf, James; Noroozkhani, Sara; Crowder, Sandra; Slezak, Jeff M

    2015-01-01

    Context: A nonlaparotomic route is recommended for hysterectomy for benign indications. Objective: 1) Predict the difficulty of hysterectomy to treat benign disease as measured by operative time and risk of laparotomy, 2) confirm the safety and quality of increasing our minimally invasive hysterectomy (MIH) rate, and 3) determine whether the assistant’s experience affected the likelihood of an MIH being performed in equally difficult hysterectomies. Design: All hysterectomies for benign disease performed at the Kaiser Permanente Fontana Medical Center in Fontana, CA, in 2012 were reviewed for length of surgery, length of stay, complications, and readmissions. A three-tiered category system was developed from four preoperative parameters (body mass index, number of vaginal deliveries, clinical uterine size, and history of major abdominal surgery) to anticipate length and difficulty of surgery. Main Outcome Measures: Rates of MIH, complications, and readmissions as well as length of surgery and length of stay for similarly difficult hysterectomies. These outcomes were compared with surgeons’ and assistants’ experience. Results: Of 576 hysterectomies performed for benign disease, 89% were MIH with a 3% complication rate and 4% readmission rate. An increase in the hysterectomy category was statistically significantly associated with longer surgery times and a higher percentage of laparotomy. With the most experienced assistants, the MIH rate was 98%. Conclusions: Using 4 preoperative parameters, the average operating time for hysterectomy for benign disease can be predicted. A higher hysterectomy category predicts a more difficult surgery. Our center has increased its MIH rate to 89% while maintaining safety. PMID:26222092

  12. Health Behaviors Predict Higher Interleukin-6 levels Among Patients Newly Diagnosed with Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Duffy, Sonia A.; Teknos, Theodoros; Taylor, Jeremy M.G.; Fowler, Karen E.; Islam, Mozaffarul; Wolf, Gregory T.; McLean, Scott; Ghanem, Tamer A.; Terrell, Jeffrey E.

    2013-01-01

    Background Health behaviors have been shown to be associated with recurrence risk and survival rates in cancer patients and are also associated with Interleukin-6 levels, but few epidemiologic studies have investigated the relationship of health behaviors and Interleukin-6 among cancer populations. The purpose of the study is to look at the relationship between five health behaviors: smoking, alcohol problems, body mass index (a marker of nutritional status), physical activity, and sleep and pretreatment Interleukin-6 levels in persons with head and neck cancer. Methods Patients (N=409) were recruited in otolaryngology clinic waiting rooms and invited to complete written surveys. A medical record audit was also conducted. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine which health behaviors were associated with higher Interleukin-6 levels controlling for demographic and clinical variables among newly diagnosed head and neck cancer patients. Results While smoking, alcohol problems, body mass index, physical activity, and sleep were associated with Interleukin-6 levels in bivariate analysis, only smoking (current and former) and decreased sleep were independent predictors of higher Interleukin-6 levels in multivariate regression analysis. Covariates associated with higher Interleukin-6 levels were age and higher tumor stage, while comorbidities were marginally significant. Conclusion Health behaviors, particularly smoking and sleep disturbances, are associated with higher Interleukin-6 levels among head and neck cancer patients. Impact Treating health behavior problems, especially smoking and sleep disturbances, may be beneficial to decreasing Interleukin-6 levels which could have a beneficial effect on overall cancer treatment outcomes. PMID:23300019

  13. Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

    2009-08-01

    Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

  14. Comparison of experimentally determined and mathematically predicted percutaneous penetration rates of chemicals.

    PubMed

    Korinth, Gintautas; Schaller, Karl Heinz; Bader, Michael; Bartsch, Rüdiger; Göen, Thomas; Rossbach, Bernd; Drexler, Hans

    2012-03-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate the predictive potential of three different mathematical models for the percutaneous penetration of industrial solvents with respect to our experimental data. Percutaneous penetration rates (fluxes) from diffusion cell experiments of 11 chemicals were compared with fluxes predicted by mathematical models. The chemicals considered were three glycol ethers (2-butoxyethanol, diethylene glycol monobutyl ether and 1-ethoxy-2-propanol), three alcohols (ethanol, isopropanol and methanol), two glycols (ethylene glycol and 1,2-propanediol), one aromatic hydrocarbon (toluene) and two aromatic amines (aniline and o-toluidine). For the mathematical prediction of fluxes, models described by Fiserova-Bergerova et al. (Am J Ind Med 17:617-635 1990), Guy and Potts (Am J Ind Med 23:711-719 1993) and Wilschut et al. (Chemosphere 30:1275-1296 1995) were used. The molecular weights, octanol-water partition coefficients (LogP) and water solubilities of the compounds were obtained from a database for modelling. The fit between the mathematically predicted and experimentally determined fluxes was poor (R(2) = 0.04-0.29; linear regression). The flux differences ranged up to a factor of 412. For 4 compounds, the Guy and Potts model showed a closer fit with the experimental flux than the other models. The Wilschut et al. model showed a lower flux difference for 4 compounds as compared to experimental data than the models of Fiserova-Bergerova et al. and Guy and Potts. The Fiserova-Bergerova et al. model showed for 3 compounds a lower flux difference to experimental data than the other models. This study demonstrates large differences between mathematically predicted and experimentally determined fluxes. The percutaneous penetration as determined in diffusion cell experiments may be considerably overestimated as well as underestimated by mathematical models. Although the number of compounds in our comparison study is small, the results point out that none

  15. Predicting Post-disturbance Changes in Forest Recovery Rates Using Statistical Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, F.; Masek, J. G.; Huang, C.; Goward, S. N.

    2013-12-01

    The carbon balance of a forest ecosystem is fundamentally linked to its cycle of disturbance and recovery. Until now, our understanding of the climatic, topograhic or management controls on recovery rate is limited. In this study, we seek to examine variation in post-disturbance forest recovery trajectories. We assembled FIA biomass and tree height data for the North Carolina, South Carolina state (where re-measured data have been available since 2000 for each state), and retrieve a set of Landsat spectral and disturbance history parameters for each plot (time since disturbance, magnitude of disturbance, spectral change rate since disturbance, etc). These parameters are extracted and (as appropriate) averaged over the spatial extent of each FIA plot. We then use Random Forest modeling to relate the Landsat-based 'predictor' variables to the FIA structural attributes. The predicted changes are achieved with reasonable accuracy at these two states

  16. Fetal Heart Rate and Variability: Stability and Prediction to Developmental Outcomes in Early Childhood

    PubMed Central

    DiPietro, Janet A.; Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Costigan, Kathleen; Achy-Brou, Aristide

    2008-01-01

    Stability in cardiac indicators before birth and their utility in predicting variation in postnatal development were examined. Fetal heart rate and variability were measured longitudinally from 20 through 38 weeks gestation (n = 137) and again at age 2 (n = 79). Significant within-individual stability during the prenatal period and into childhood was demonstrated. Fetal heart rate variability at or after 28 weeks gestation and steeper developmental trajectories were significantly associated with mental and psychomotor development at 2 years (n = 82) and language ability at 2.5 years (n = 61). These data suggest that the foundations of individual differences in autonomic control originate during gestation and the developmental momentum of the fetal period continues after birth. PMID:17988321

  17. Predicting the capture rate in the Sun from a direct detection signal independently of the astrophysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrero-Garcia, Juan

    2016-05-01

    The goal of the works on which this talk is based is to relate a direct detection signal with neutrino limits from the Sun independently of the astrophysics. In order to achieve this we derive a halo-independent lower bound on the dark matter capture rate in the Sun from a direct detection signal, with which one can set upper limits on the branching ratios into different channels from the absence of a high-energy neutrino flux in neutrino observatories. We also extend this bound to the case of inelastic scattering, both endothermic and exothermic. From two inelastic signals we show how the dark matter mass, the mass difference of the states and the couplings to neutrons and protons can be obtained. Furthermore, one can also pin down the exothermic/endothermic nature of the scattering, and therefore a precise lower bound on the solar capture rate is predicted. We also discuss isospin violation and uncertainties due to form factors.

  18. Predictive analysis of beer quality by correlating sensory evaluation with higher alcohol and ester production using multivariate statistics methods.

    PubMed

    Dong, Jian-Jun; Li, Qing-Liang; Yin, Hua; Zhong, Cheng; Hao, Jun-Guang; Yang, Pan-Fei; Tian, Yu-Hong; Jia, Shi-Ru

    2014-10-15

    Sensory evaluation is regarded as a necessary procedure to ensure a reproducible quality of beer. Meanwhile, high-throughput analytical methods provide a powerful tool to analyse various flavour compounds, such as higher alcohol and ester. In this study, the relationship between flavour compounds and sensory evaluation was established by non-linear models such as partial least squares (PLS), genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network (GA-BP), support vector machine (SVM). It was shown that SVM with a Radial Basis Function (RBF) had a better performance of prediction accuracy for both calibration set (94.3%) and validation set (96.2%) than other models. Relatively lower prediction abilities were observed for GA-BP (52.1%) and PLS (31.7%). In addition, the kernel function of SVM played an essential role of model training when the prediction accuracy of SVM with polynomial kernel function was 32.9%. As a powerful multivariate statistics method, SVM holds great potential to assess beer quality. PMID:24837965

  19. High sexual signalling rates of young individuals predict extended life span in male Mediterranean fruit flies.

    PubMed

    Papadopoulos, Nikos T; Katsoyannos, Byron I; Kouloussis, Nikos A; Carey, James R; Müller, Hans-Georg; Zhang, Ying

    2004-01-01

    In a laboratory study, we monitored the lifetime sexual signalling (advertisement) of wild male Mediterranean fruit flies, and we tested the hypothesis that high lifetime intensity of sexual signalling indicates high survival probabilities. Almost all males exhibited signalling and individual signalling rates were highly variable from the beginning of the adults' maturity and throughout their life span (average life span 62.3 days). Sexual signalling rates after day 10 (peak maturity) were consistently high until about 1 week before death. There was a positive relationship between daily signalling rates and life span, and an increase in signalling level by one unit over all times was associated with an approximately 50% decrease in mortality rate. Signalling rates early in adult life (day 6-20) were higher in the longest-lived than in the shortest-lived flies. These results support the hypothesis that intense sexual signalling indicates longer life span. We discuss the importance of age-specific behavioural studies for understanding the evolution of male life histories. PMID:14576929

  20. Thin slice ratings of client characteristics in intake assessments: predicting symptom change and dropout in cognitive therapy for depression.

    PubMed

    Sasso, Katherine E; Strunk, Daniel R

    2013-08-01

    Thin slice ratings of personality have been shown to predict a number of outcomes, but have yet to be examined in the context of psychotherapy. In a sample of 66 clients participating in cognitive therapy for depression, we examined the predictive utility of thin slice rated pre-treatment client traits. On the basis of short video clip excerpts (i.e., thin slices) of intake assessments, trained observers rated clients on personality characteristics and specific personality disorder (PD) traits. Clients' therapy interest and neuroticism predicted lower odds of dropout. Ratings of extraversion predicted greater symptom change across treatment; ratings of clients' Avoidant and Schizoid PD traits predicted less marked symptom improvement. Ratings of agreeableness and likeability also predicted greater symptom change, but these relations were only significant in one of two analytic approaches used. Evidence for the predictive validity of thin slice ratings was generally stronger than that observed for self-reported PD traits and PD status. Moreover, these self-report and diagnostic assessments failed to account for the thin slice-outcome relations identified. Findings support the clinical utility of quick, thin slice impressions of clients, as these ratings could be used to identify clients with a high risk of dropout or poor treatment outcome. PMID:23747583

  1. Machine learning algorithms for predicting protein folding rates and stability of mutant proteins: comparison with statistical methods.

    PubMed

    Gromiha, M Michael; Huang, Liang-Tsung

    2011-09-01

    Machine learning algorithms have wide range of applications in bioinformatics and computational biology such as prediction of protein secondary structures, solvent accessibility, binding site residues in protein complexes, protein folding rates, stability of mutant proteins, and discrimination of proteins based on their structure and function. In this work, we focus on two aspects of predictions: (i) protein folding rates and (ii) stability of proteins upon mutations. We briefly introduce the concepts of protein folding rates and stability along with available databases, features for prediction methods and measures for prediction performance. Subsequently, the development of structure based parameters and their relationship with protein folding rates will be outlined. The structure based parameters are helpful to understand the physical basis for protein folding and stability. Further, basic principles of major machine learning techniques will be mentioned and their applications for predicting protein folding rates and stability of mutant proteins will be illustrated. The machine learning techniques could achieve the highest accuracy of predicting protein folding rates and stability. In essence, statistical methods and machine learning algorithms are complimenting each other for understanding and predicting protein folding rates and the stability of protein mutants. The available online resources on protein folding rates and stability will be listed. PMID:21787301

  2. Growth rate predicts mortality of Abies concolor in both burned and unburned stands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.; Mutch, L.S.; Johnson, V.G.; Esperanza, A.M.; Parsons, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    Tree mortality is often the result of both long-term and short-term stress. Growth rate, an indicator of long-term stress, is often used to estimate probability of death in unburned stands. In contrast, probability of death in burned stands is modeled as a function of short-term disturbance severity. We sought to narrow this conceptual gap by determining (i) whether growth rate, in addition to crown scorch, is a predictor of mortality in burned stands and (ii) whether a single, simple model could predict tree death in both burned and unburned stands. Observations of 2622 unburned and 688 burned Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) in the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S.A., indicated that growth rate was a significant predictor of mortality in the unburned stands, while both crown scorch and radial growth were significant predictors of mortality in the burned stands. Applying the burned stand model to unburned stands resulted in an overestimation of the unburned stand mortality rate. While failing to create a general model of tree death for A. concolor, our findings underscore the idea that similar processes may affect mortality in disturbed and undisturbed stands.

  3. Formation rates, stability and reactivity of sulfuric acid - amine clusters predicted by computational chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurtén, Theo; Ortega, Ismael; Kupiainen, Oona; Olenius, Tinja; Loukonen, Ville; Reiman, Heidi; McGrath, Matthew; Vehkamäki, Hanna

    2013-04-01

    Despite the importance of atmospheric particle formation for both climate and air quality, both experiments and non-empirical models using e.g. sulfuric acid, ammonia and water as condensing vapors have so far been unable to reproduce atmospheric observations using realistic trace gas concentrations. Recent experimental and theoretical evidence has shown that this mystery is likely resolved by amines. Combining first-principles evaporation rates for sulfuric acid - dimethylamine clusters with cluster kinetic modeling, we show that even sub-ppt concentrations of amines, together with atmospherically realistic concentrations of sulfuric acid, result in formation rates close to those observed in the atmosphere. Our simulated cluster formation rates are also close to, though somewhat larger than, those measured at the CLOUD experiment in CERN for both sulfuric acid - ammonia and sulfuric acid - dimethylamine systems. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the remaining discrepancy for the sulfuric acid - amine particle formation rates is likely caused by steric hindrances to cluster formation (due to alkyl groups of the amine molecules) rather than by significant errors in the evaporation rates. First-principles molecular dynamic and reaction kinetic modeling shed further light on the microscopic physics and chemistry of sulfuric acid - amine clusters. For example, while the number and type of hydrogen bonds in the clusters typically reach their equilibrium values on a picosecond timescale, and the overall bonding patterns predicted by traditional "static" quantum chemical calculations seem to be stable, the individual atoms participating in the hydrogen bonds continuously change at atmospherically realistic temperatures. From a chemical reactivity perspective, we have also discovered a surprising phenomenon: clustering with sulfuric acid molecules slightly increases the activation energy required for the abstraction of alkyl hydrogens from amine molecules. This implies

  4. Improved Outcomes Associated with Higher Surgery Rates for Older Patients with Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Gray, Stacy W.; Landrum, Mary Beth; Lamont, Elizabeth B.; McNeil, Barbara J.; Jaklitsch, Michael T.; Keating, Nancy L.

    2011-01-01

    Background Although surgery offers the greatest chance of cure for patients with early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), older and sicker patients often fail to undergo resection. The benefits of surgery in older patients and patients with multiple co-morbidities are uncertain. Methods We identified a national cohort of 17,638 Medicare beneficiaries, aged ≥66 years living in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) areas who were diagnosed with stage I or II NSCLC during 2001–2005. We compared areas with high and low rates of curative surgery for early-stage lung cancer to estimate the effectiveness of surgery in older and sicker patients. We used logistic regression models to assess mortality by quintile of area-level surgery rates, adjusting for potential confounders. Findings Fewer than 63% of patients underwent surgery in low-surgery areas while >79% underwent surgery in high-surgery areas. High-surgery areas operated on more patients with advanced age and COPD than low-surgery areas. Adjusted all-cause one year mortality was 18.0% in high-surgery areas vs. 22.8% in low-surgery areas (adjusted odds ratio (OR)=0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.86–0.93) for each 10% increase in surgery rates). One year lung-cancer-specific mortality was similarly lower in high-versus low-surgery areas (12.0% versus 16.9%), adjusted OR=0.86 (95% CI 0.82–0.91) for each 10% increase in surgery rates. Interpretations Higher rates of surgery for stage I/II NSCLC are associated with improved survival, even when older patients and sicker patients undergo resection. More work is needed to identify and reduce barriers to surgery for early-stage NSCLC. PMID:21800285

  5. Predicting Reduction Rates of Energetic Nitroaromatic Compounds Using Calculated One-Electron Reduction Potentials

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Salter-Blanc, Alexandra; Bylaska, Eric J.; Johnston, Hayley; Tratnyek, Paul G.

    2015-02-11

    The evaluation of new energetic nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) for use in green munitions formulations requires models that can predict their environmental fate. The susceptibility of energetic NACs to nitro reduction might be predicted from correlations between rate constants (k) for this reaction and one-electron reduction potentials (E1NAC) / 0.059 V, but the mechanistic implications of such correlations are inconsistent with evidence from other methods. To address this inconsistency, we have reevaluated existing kinetic data using a (non-linear) free-energy relationship (FER) based on the Marcus theory of outer-sphere electron transfer. For most reductants, the results are inconsistent with rate limitation bymore » an initial, outer-sphere electron transfer, suggesting that the strong correlation between k and E1NAC is justified only as an empirical model. This empirical correlation was used to calibrate a new quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) using previously reported values of k for non-energetic NAC reduction by Fe(II) porphyrin and newly reported values of E1NAC determined using density functional theory at the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) level with the COSMO solvation model. The QSAR was then validated for energetic NACs using newly measured kinetic data for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN). The data show close agreement with the QSAR, supporting its applicability to energetic NACs.« less

  6. Reward rate optimization in two-alternative decision making: empirical tests of theoretical predictions

    PubMed Central

    Simen, Patrick; Contreras, David; Buck, Cara; Hu, Peter; Holmes, Philip; Cohen, Jonathan

    2009-01-01

    The drift-diffusion model (DDM) describes decision making in simple, two-alternative forced choice (2AFC) tasks. It accurately fits response-time distributions and implements an optimal decision procedure for stationary 2AFC tasks: for a given accuracy, no other model achieves faster average response times. The value of a decision threshold applied to accumulated information also determines a speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT) for the DDM, thereby accounting for a ubiquitous feature of human performance in speeded response tasks. However, little is known about how participants settle on particular tradeoffs. One possibility is that they select SATs that maximize the rate of earned rewards. For the DDM, there exist unique, reward-rate-maximizing values for its threshold and starting point parameters in free response tasks that reward correct responses (Bogacz et al, 2006). These optimal values vary as a function of response-stimulus interval, prior stimulus probability and relative reward magnitude for correct responses. We tested the resulting quantitative predictions regarding response time, accuracy and response bias under these task manipulations and found that grouped data conformed well to the predictions of an optimally parameterized DDM. PMID:19968441

  7. A Subgrid Model for Predicting Air Entrainment Rates in Bubbly Flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Jingsen; Oberai, Assad A.; Drew, Donald E.; Lahey, Richard T., Jr.; Moraga, Francisco J.

    2008-11-01

    In this talk we present a fairly simple subgrid air entrainment model that accurately predicts the rate of air entrainment, which is critical in simulating multiphase (air/water) flows. The derivation of this model begins by assuming that a thin sheet of air is carried into the water by the inertia of the liquid at the free surface. A momentum balance on the entrained gas layer results in an expression for the entrained volumetric gas flow rate, in terms of the local liquid velocity, gas viscosity etc., which are readily available from a multiphase RANS-type simulation. This model has been validated against extensive experimental data on both plunging jets and hydraulic jumps over a wide range of liquid velocities. It was implemented in a two-fluid computational fluid dynamics code (CFDShipM) to be used to predict the void fraction distribution underneath a plunging liquid jet at different depths and jet velocities. The results were found to match the experimental observations very well. The application of this model to more challenging problems, including hydraulic jumps and full-scale ship simulations, is currently underway.

  8. Predicting Reduction Rates of Energetic Nitroaromatic Compounds Using Calculated One-Electron Reduction Potentials

    SciTech Connect

    Salter-Blanc, Alexandra; Bylaska, Eric J.; Johnston, Hayley; Tratnyek, Paul G.

    2015-02-11

    The evaluation of new energetic nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) for use in green munitions formulations requires models that can predict their environmental fate. The susceptibility of energetic NACs to nitro reduction might be predicted from correlations between rate constants (k) for this reaction and one-electron reduction potentials (E1NAC) / 0.059 V, but the mechanistic implications of such correlations are inconsistent with evidence from other methods. To address this inconsistency, we have reevaluated existing kinetic data using a (non-linear) free-energy relationship (FER) based on the Marcus theory of outer-sphere electron transfer. For most reductants, the results are inconsistent with rate limitation by an initial, outer-sphere electron transfer, suggesting that the strong correlation between k and E1NAC is justified only as an empirical model. This empirical correlation was used to calibrate a new quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) using previously reported values of k for non-energetic NAC reduction by Fe(II) porphyrin and newly reported values of E1NAC determined using density functional theory at the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) level with the COSMO solvation model. The QSAR was then validated for energetic NACs using newly measured kinetic data for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN). The data show close agreement with the QSAR, supporting its applicability to energetic NACs.

  9. Measurement of (α,n) reaction cross sections of erbium isotopes for testing astrophysical rate predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiss, G. G.; Szücs, T.; Rauscher, T.; Török, Zs; Csedreki, L.; Fülöp, Zs; Gyürky, Gy; Halász, Z.

    2015-05-01

    The γ-process in core-collapse and/or type Ia supernova explosions is thought to explain the origin of the majority of the so-called p nuclei (the 35 proton-rich isotopes between Se and Hg). Reaction rates for γ-process reaction network studies have to be predicted using Hauser-Feshbach statistical model calculations. Recent investigations have shown problems in the prediction of α-widths at astrophysical energies which are an essential input for the statistical model. It has an impact on the reliability of abundance predictions in the upper mass range of the p nuclei. With the measurement of the 164,166Er(α,n)167,169Yb reaction cross sections at energies close to the astrophysically relevant energy range we tested the recently suggested low energy modification of the α+nucleus optical potential in a mass region where γ-process calculations exhibit an underproduction of the p nuclei. Using the same optical potential for the α-width which was derived from combined 162Er(α,n) and 162Er(α,γ) measurement makes it plausible that a low-energy modification of the optical α+nucleus potential is needed.

  10. A general procedure for predicting rates of inbreeding in populations undergoing mass selection.

    PubMed Central

    Bijma, P; Van Arendonk, J A; Woolliams, J A

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of rates of inbreeding (DeltaF), based on the concept of long-term genetic contributions assuming the infinitesimal model, are developed for populations with discrete or overlapping generations undergoing mass selection. Phenotypes of individuals are assumed to be recorded prior to reproductive age and to remain constant over time. The prediction method accounts for inheritance of selective advantage both within and between age classes and for changing selection intensities with age. Terms corresponding to previous methods that assume constant selection intensity with age are identified. Predictions are accurate (relative errors < or =8%), except for cases with extreme selection intensities in females in combination with high heritability. With overlapping generations DeltaF reaches a maximum when parents are equally distributed over age classes, which is mainly due to selection of the same individuals in consecutive years. DeltaF/year decreases much more slowly compared to DeltaF/generation as the number of younger individuals increases, whereas the decrease is more similar as the number of older individuals increases. The minimum DeltaF (per year or per generation) is obtained when most parents were in the later age classes, which is mainly due to an increased number of parents per generation. With overlapping generations, the relationship between heritability and DeltaF is dependent on the age structure of the population. PMID:10747075

  11. Predicting Residential Air Exchange Rates from Questionnaires and Meteorology: Model Evaluation in Central North Carolina

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h−1) and 40% (0.17 h−1) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h−1). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies. PMID:21069949

  12. Clinical Dementia Rating Performed Several Years prior to Death Predicts Regional Alzheimer’s Neuropathology

    PubMed Central

    Beeri, Michal Schnaider; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Schmeidler, James; Wysocki, Michael; Grossman, Hillel Z.; Purohit, Dushyant P.; Perl, Daniel P.; Haroutunian, Vahram

    2011-01-01

    Aims To assess the relationships between early and late antemortem measures of dementia severity and Alzheimer disease (AD) neuropathology severity. Methods 40 residents of a nursing home, average age at death 82.0, participated in this longitudinal cohort study with postmortem assessment. Severity of dementia was measured by Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) at two time points, averaging 4.5 and 1.0 years before death. Densities of postmortem neuritic plaques (NPs) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs) were measured in the cerebral cortex, hippocampus, and entorhinal cortex. Results For most brain areas, both early and late CDRs were significantly associated with NPs and NFTs. CDRs assessed proximal to death predicted NFTs beyond the contribution of early CDRs. NPs were predicted by both early and late CDRs. NPs were predictive of both early and late CDRs after controlling for NFTs. NFTs were only associated significantly with late CDR in the cerebral cortex after controlling for NPs. Conclusions Even if assessed several years before death, dementia severity is associated with AD neuropathology. NPs are more strongly associated with dementia severity than NFTs. NFTs consistently associate better with late than early CDR, suggesting that these neuropathological changes may occur relatively later in the course of the disease. PMID:18367838

  13. Lower glomerular filtration rate is associated with higher systemic vascular resistance in patients without prevalent kidney disease.

    PubMed

    Vääräniemi, Kati; Koskela, Jenni; Tahvanainen, Anna; Tikkakoski, Antti; Wilenius, Matias; Kähönen, Mika; Kööbi, Tiit; Niemelä, Onni; Mustonen, Jukka; Pörsti, Ilkka

    2014-10-01

    The authors examined the association between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine-cystatin C equation, and hemodynamics in 556 normotensive or never-treated hypertensive patients without kidney disease (mean age, 46 years). Hemodynamic variables were recorded using pulse wave analysis and whole-body impedance cardiography. The mean eGFR was 98 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (range, 64-145 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and one third of the patients had values below 92, while none had proteinuria. In linear regression analyses adjusted for differences in age, weight:height ratio, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and sex, significant associations were found between lower eGFR and higher systolic (P=.001) and diastolic blood pressure (P<.001) and higher systemic vascular resistance (P=.001). There was no association between eGFR and cardiac output or extracellular volume. In the absence of clinical kidney disease, lower eGFR was associated with higher blood pressure and systemic vascular resistance. Therefore, early impairment in kidney function may be involved in the pathogenesis of essential hypertension. PMID:25228202

  14. Predicting cancer rates in astronauts from animal carcinogenesis studies and cellular markers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, J. R.; Zhang, Y.; Zhou, H.; Osman, M.; Cha, D.; Kavet, R.; Cuccinotta, F.; Dicello, J. F.; Dillehay, L. E.

    1999-01-01

    The radiation space environment includes particles such as protons and multiple species of heavy ions, with much of the exposure to these radiations occurring at extremely low average dose-rates. Limitations in databases needed to predict cancer hazards in human beings from such radiations are significant and currently do not provide confidence that such predictions are acceptably precise or accurate. In this article, we outline the need for animal carcinogenesis data based on a more sophisticated understanding of the dose-response relationship for induction of cancer and correlative cellular endpoints by representative space radiations. We stress the need for a model that can interrelate human and animal carcinogenesis data with cellular mechanisms. Using a broad model for dose-response patterns which we term the "subalpha-alpha-omega (SAO) model", we explore examples in the literature for radiation-induced cancer and for radiation-induced cellular events to illustrate the need for data that define the dose-response patterns more precisely over specific dose ranges, with special attention to low dose, low dose-rate exposure. We present data for multiple endpoints in cells, which vary in their radiosensitivity, that also support the proposed model. We have measured induction of complex chromosome aberrations in multiple cell types by two space radiations, Fe-ions and protons, and compared these to photons delivered at high dose-rate or low dose-rate. Our data demonstrate that at least three factors modulate the relative efficacy of Fe-ions compared to photons: (i) intrinsic radiosensitivity of irradiated cells; (ii) dose-rate; and (iii) another unspecified effect perhaps related to reparability of DNA lesions. These factors can produce respectively up to at least 7-, 6- and 3-fold variability. These data demonstrate the need to understand better the role of intrinsic radiosensitivity and dose-rate effects in mammalian cell response to ionizing radiation. Such

  15. Higher blood hematocrit predicts hyperuricemia: a prospective study of 62897 person-years of follow-up

    PubMed Central

    Zeng, Chao; Wei, Jie; Yang, Tuo; Li, Hui; Xiao, Wen-feng; Luo, Wei; Gao, Shu-guang; Li, Yu-sheng; Xiong, Yi-lin; Lei, Guang-hua

    2015-01-01

    This prospective study aimed to investigate the relationship between higher hematocrit (Hct) level and hyperuricemia (HU) incidence. A total of 27540 subjects were included. Baseline Hct was classified into four categories based on the quartile distribution of the study population. A cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the risk of HU incidence across the Hct quartiles after adjusting a number of potential confounding factors. Out of the 62897 person-years of follow-up, 2745 new cases of HU were developed. In models adjusted for known risk factors of HU, higher Hct was used to predict HU incidence independently in a graded manner (p = 0.02): compared with subjects in the lowest quartile, subjects in the highest quartile of Hct (hazard ratio = 1.20; 95% confidence interval: 1.03–1.41) were n20% more likely to develop HU. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the hazard ratios increased with the extension of the minimum follow-up interval. When the minimum follow-up interval was restricted to 4 years, subjects in the highest quartile of Hct were 70% more likely to develop HU, compared with the lowest quartile. Higher Hct, a routinely measured inexpensive biomarker was independently associated with the incidence of HU even within the normal range. PMID:26337238

  16. Material removal rate prediction for ultrasonic drilling of hard materials using an impact oscillator approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiercigroch, M.; Neilson, R. D.; Player, M. A.

    1999-08-01

    It is postulated that the main mechanism of the enhancement of material removal rate (MRR) in ultrasonic machining is associated with high amplitudes forces generated by impacts, which act on the workpiece and help to develop micro-cracking in the cutting zone. The inherent non-linearity of the discontinuous impact process is modelled, to generate the pattern of the impact forces. A novel procedure for calculating the MRR is proposed, which for the first time explains the experimentally observed fall in MRR at higher static forces.

  17. The role of advanced reactive surface area characterization in improving predictions of mineral reaction rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckingham, L. E.; Zhang, S.; Mitnick, E.; Cole, D. R.; Yang, L.; Anovitz, L. M.; Sheets, J.; Swift, A.; Kneafsey, T. J.; Landrot, G.; Mito, S.; Xue, Z.; Steefel, C. I.; DePaolo, D. J.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    Geologic sequestration of CO2 in deep sedimentary formations is a promising means of mitigating carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants but the long-term fate of injected CO2 is challenging to predict. Reactive transport models are used to gain insight over long times but rely on laboratory determined mineral reaction rates that have been difficult to extrapolate to field systems. This, in part, is due to a lack of understanding of mineral reactive surface area. Many models use an arbitrary approximation of reactive surface area, applying orders of magnitude scaling factors to measured BET or geometric surface areas. Recently, a few more sophisticated approaches have used 2D and 3D image analyses to determine mineral-specific reactive surface areas that account for the accessibility of minerals. However, the ability of these advanced surface area estimates to improve predictions of mineral reaction rates has yet to be determined. In this study, we fuse X-ray microCT, SEM QEMSCAN, XRD, SANS, and SEM-FIB analysis to determine mineral-specific accessible reactive surface areas for a core sample from the Nagaoka pilot CO2 injection site (Japan). This sample is primarily quartz, plagioclase, smectite, K-feldspar, and pyroxene. SEM imaging shows abundant smectite cement and grain coatings that decrease the fluid accessibility of other minerals. However, analysis of FIB-SEM images reveals that smectite nano-pores are well connected such that access to underlying minerals is not occluded by smectite coatings. Mineral-specific accessible surfaces are determined, accounting for the connectivity of the pore space with and without connected smectite nano-pores. The large-scale impact of variations in accessibility and dissolution rates are then determined through continuum scale modeling using grid-cell specific information on accessible surface areas. This approach will be compared with a traditional continuum scale model using mineral abundances and common surface area

  18. Predicting the impact of anaerobic microsites on soil organic matter mineralization rates in upland soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gee, K. E.; Keiluweit, M.; Denney, A.; Fendorf, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Soils are a crucial component of the global carbon (C) cycle, representing a highly dynamic and large reservoir of C stored as soil organic matter (SOM). An important control on SOM residence time is microbial mineralization. While the impact of climactic and site-specific constraints on SOM mineralization rates are recognized, the role of oxygen limitations remains elusive. If oxygen consumption (via heterotrophic respiration) outpaces supply (via diffusion), anaerobic microsites can occur even within seemingly well-aerated upland soils. Under anaerobic conditions, SOM mineralization rates are expected to be slower due to metabolic constraints on microbial C oxidation. Process-based C cycling models have begun to incorporate the inhibiting effect of oxygen limitations by estimating anaerobic pore volume. However, such model predictions still lack experimental validation and research on environmental controls thus far has largely been focused on soil moisture. Here we aimed to determine the extent of anaerobic microsites within seemingly well-aerated upland soils experimentally and identify whether texture, SOM content, and microbial biomass can act as useful predictors in modeling frameworks. To this end, we monitored oxygen dynamics in soils spanning natural and artificial gradients in texture, SOM content and microbial biomass. Anaerobic microsites was visualized using a planar optode imaging system. Oxygen consumption rates were determined using gas chromatography, while oxygen diffusion rates were estimated based on porosity and pore-size distribution quantified by x-ray microtomography. Our results show that bulk oxygen concentrations ranged from 70% to as low as 20% saturation. However, all soils showed substantial micro-scale variability in oxygen concentrations, leading to the formation of anaerobic microsites even at modest moisture content. The extent of anaerobic microsites correlated with an overall reduction in SOM mineralization rates, and depended

  19. Exaggerated Claims About Success Rate of Earthquake Predictions: "Amazing Success" or "Remarkably Unremarkable"?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafka, A. L.; Ebel, J. E.

    2005-12-01

    On October 1, 2004, NASA announced on its web site, "Earthquake Forecast Program Has Amazing Success Rate." This announcement claimed that the Rundle-Tiampo earthquake forecast method has accurately predicted the locations of 15 of California's 16 largest earthquakes this decade. Since words like "amazing" carry a lot of meaning to consumers of scientific information, claims of "amazing success" should be limited only to cases where the success is truly amazing. We evaluated the statistical likelihood of the reported success rate of the Rundle-Tiampo prediction method by applying a cellular seismology approach to investigate whether proximity to past earthquakes is a sufficient hypothesis to yield the same level of success as the Rundle-Tiampo method. To delineate where to expect future earthquakes, we used the epicenters of the ANSS earthquake catalog for California from 1932 through 1999 with magnitude≥4.0 ("before" earthquakes). We then tested how many of the 15 events that are shown on the NASA web page ("after" earthquakes) occurred near the "before" earthquake epicenters. We found that with only a 4 km radius around each "before" earthquake epicenter, we successfully forecast the locations of 13/15 (87%) of the "after" earthquakes, and with a 7 km radius we successfully forecast 14/15 (93%) of the earthquakes. The zones created by filling in a 7 km radius around the "before" epicenters cover 18% of the study area. The scorecard maps on the JPL "QuakeSim" web site show an 11 km margin of error for the epicenters of the forecast earthquakes. With an 11 km radius around the past epicenters (covering 31% of the map area), we catch 14/15 of the "after" earthquakes. We conclude that the success rate referred to in the NASA announcement is perhaps better characterized as "remarkably unremarkable", rather than "amazing." The 14/15 success rate for the earthquakes listed on the NASA scorecard is not a rigorous test of the Rundle-Tiampo method, since it appears that

  20. Predictions of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanikar, Prasenjit; Zikry, M. A.

    2014-01-01

    A dislocation density-based crystalline plasticity formulation, specialized finite-element techniques, and rational crystallographic orientation relations were used to predict and characterize the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary distributions. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain rate applications and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-bonded interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking, and delamination are the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be used to optimize behavior for high strain rate applications.

  1. Using heart rate to predict energy expenditure in large domestic dogs.

    PubMed

    Gerth, N; Ruoß, C; Dobenecker, B; Reese, S; Starck, J M

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to establish heart rate as a measure of energy expenditure in large active kennel dogs (28 ± 3 kg bw). Therefore, the heart rate (HR)-oxygen consumption (V˙O2) relationship was analysed in Foxhound-Boxer-Ingelheim-Labrador cross-breds (FBI dogs) at rest and graded levels of exercise on a treadmill up to 60-65% of maximal aerobic capacity. To test for effects of training, HR and V˙O2 were measured in female dogs, before and after a training period, and after an adjacent training pause to test for reversibility of potential effects. Least squares regression was applied to describe the relationship between HR and V˙O2. The applied training had no statistically significant effect on the HR-V˙O2 regression. A general regression line from all data collected was prepared to establish a general predictive equation for energy expenditure from HR in FBI dogs. The regression equation established in this study enables fast estimation of energy requirement for running activity. The equation is valid for large dogs weighing around 30 kg that run at ground level up to 15 km/h with a heart rate maximum of 190 bpm irrespective of the training level. PMID:26344575

  2. Predicted Rates of Secondary Malignancies From Proton Versus Photon Radiation Therapy for Stage I Seminoma

    SciTech Connect

    Simone, Charles B.; Kramer, Kevin; O'Meara, William P.; Bekelman, Justin E.; Belard, Arnaud; McDonough, James; O'Connell, John

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Photon radiotherapy has been the standard adjuvant treatment for stage I seminoma. Single-dose carboplatin therapy and observation have emerged as alternative options due to concerns for acute toxicities and secondary malignancies from radiation. In this institutional review board-approved study, we compared photon and proton radiotherapy for stage I seminoma and the predicted rates of excess secondary malignancies for both treatment modalities. Methods and Material: Computed tomography images from 10 consecutive patients with stage I seminoma were used to quantify dosimetric differences between photon and proton therapies. Structures reported to be at increased risk for secondary malignancies and in-field critical structures were contoured. Reported models of organ-specific radiation-induced cancer incidence rates based on organ equivalent dose were used to determine the excess absolute risk of secondary malignancies. Calculated values were compared with tumor registry reports of excess secondary malignancies among testicular cancer survivors. Results: Photon and proton plans provided comparable target volume coverage. Proton plans delivered significantly lower mean doses to all examined normal tissues, except for the kidneys. The greatest absolute reduction in mean dose was observed for the stomach (119 cGy for proton plans vs. 768 cGy for photon plans; p < 0.0001). Significantly more excess secondary cancers per 10,000 patients/year were predicted for photon radiation than for proton radiation to the stomach (4.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.22-5.01), large bowel (0.81; 95% CI, 0.39-1.01), and bladder (0.03; 95% CI, 0.01-0.58), while no difference was demonstrated for radiation to the pancreas (0.02; 95% CI, -0.01-0.06). Conclusions: For patients with stage I seminoma, proton radiation therapy reduced the predicted secondary cancer risk compared with photon therapy. We predict a reduction of one additional secondary cancer for every 50 patients

  3. Sensitivity of an energy balance climate model with predicted snowfall rates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowman, K. P.

    1985-01-01

    A snowfall parameterization and a polar-ice-sheet model are developed and applied to the two-level zonally averaged seasonal energy-balance climate model of Held and Suarez (1979), and sensitivity experiments involving changes in insolation are performed both with and without ice sheets. The results are presented in tables and graphs, and the hydrological-cycle response to insolation changes is found to be similar to that predicted by global-circulation models employing prescribed precipitation levels, with a somewhat higher sensitivity in the snow line. The area covered by ice sheets in the ice-sheet models is shown to be greater than that covered by permanent snow in the models without ice sheets, an effect attributed to lower surface temperatures over the ice. It is inferred that an increase in the solar constant can cause increased high-latitude precipitation but not an ice age.

  4. Is higher volume of postacute care patients associated with a lower rehospitalization rate in skilled nursing facilities?

    PubMed

    Li, Yue; Cai, Xueya; Yin, Jun; Glance, Laurent G; Mukamel, Dana B

    2012-02-01

    This study determined whether higher patient volume of skilled nursing facility (SNF) care was associated with a lower hospital transfer rate. Using the nursing home Minimum Data Set and the Online Survey, Certification, and Reporting file, we assembled a national cohort of Medicare SNF postacute care admissions between January and September of 2008. Multivariable analyses based on Cox proportional hazards models found that patients admitted to high-volume SNFs (annual number of admissions in the top tertile group) showed an approximately 15% reduced risk for 30-day rehospitalization and an approximately 25% reduced risk for 90-day rehospitalization, compared with patients admitted to low-volume SNFs (annual number of admissions in the bottom tertile group, or <45). Similar patterns of volume-outcome associations were found for hospital-based and freestanding facilities separately. The inverse volume-outcome association in postacute SNF care may reflect a "practice makes perfect" effect, a "selective referral" effect, or both. PMID:21810798

  5. Sweat rate prediction equations for outdoor exercise with transient solar radiation.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez, Richard R; Cheuvront, Samuel N; Ely, Brett R; Moran, Daniel S; Hadid, Amir; Endrusick, Thomas L; Sawka, Michael N

    2012-04-01

    We investigated the validity of employing a fuzzy piecewise prediction equation (PW) [Gonzalez et al. J Appl Physiol 107: 379-388, 2009] defined by sweat rate (m(sw), g·m(-2)·h(-1)) = 147 + 1.527·(E(req)) - 0.87·(E(max)), which integrates evaporation required (E(req)) and the maximum evaporative capacity of the environment (E(max)). Heat exchange and physiological responses were determined throughout the trials. Environmental conditions were ambient temperature (T(a)) = 16-26°C, relative humidity (RH) = 51-55%, and wind speed (V) = 0.5-1.5 m/s. Volunteers wore military fatigues [clothing evaporative potential (i(m)/clo) = 0.33] and carried loads (15-31 kg) while marching 14-37 km over variable terrains either at night (N = 77, trials 1-5) or night with increasing daylight (N = 33, trials 6 and 7). PW was modified (Pw,sol) for transient solar radiation (R(sol), W) determined from measured solar loads and verified in trials 6 and 7. PW provided a valid m(sw) prediction during night trials (1-5) matching previous laboratory values and verified by bootstrap correlation (r(bs) of 0.81, SE ± 0.014, SEE = ± 69.2 g·m(-2)·h(-1)). For trials 6 and 7, E(req) and E(max) components included R(sol) applying a modified equation Pw,sol, in which m(sw) = 147 + 1.527·(E(req,sol)) - 0.87·(E(max)). Linear prediction of m(sw) = 0.72·Pw,sol + 135 (N = 33) was validated (R(2) = 0.92; SEE = ±33.8 g·m(-2)·h(-1)) with PW β-coefficients unaltered during field marches between 16°C and 26°C T(a) for m(sw) ≤ 700 g·m(-2)·h(-1). PW was additionally derived for cool laboratory/night conditions (T(a) < 20°C) in which E(req) is low but E(max) is high, as: PW,cool (g·m(-2)·h(-1)) = 350 + 1.527·E(req) - 0.87·E(max). These sweat prediction equations allow valid tools for civilian, sports, and military medicine communities to predict water needs during a variety of heat stress/exercise conditions. PMID:22241058

  6. Sweat rate and prediction validation during high-altitude treks on Mount Kilimanjaro.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez, Richard R; Kenefick, Robert W; Muza, Stephen R; Hamilton, Scott W; Sawka, Michael N

    2013-02-15

    This study measured sweat rates (m(sw)) during high-altitude summer treks on Mt. Kilimanjaro to evaluate the efficacy of a recently developed fuzzy piecewise sweat prediction equation (Pw,sol) for application to high-altitude conditions. We hypothesized that the Pw,sol equation, adjusted for the barometric pressure (Pb) decreasing steadily at high altitude (Pw,sol+Alt), would allow for a more accurate prediction of m(sw) than Pw,sol unadjusted for altitude (Pw,sol(SL)). Fifteen men (43 ± 16 yr; 80 ± 22 kg) and seven women (46 ± 16 yr; 77 ± 18 kg) wearing hiking clothes (clo ∼1.15; clothing evaporative potential = 0.27) and carrying light loads (9 ± 2 kg), were studied during morning and afternoon treks (∼2-3 h) while ascending from 2,829 m to 3,505 m. After each trek, m(sw) was measured with specific biophysical parameters at 15-min intervals. During the trek day, Pb progressively declined (530 to 504 Torr), as solar radiation and ambient temperature (°C) rose transiently. During all treks, m(sw) ranged from 68 to 393 g·m(-2)·h(-1) (0.14 to 0.79 l/h). For each subject, derived Pw,sol(SL) and Pw,sol+Alt model outputs accurately predicted the morning and afternoon average m(sw) within a root mean square error of 0.145 l/h. No differences were found between Pw,sol(SL) and Pw,sol+Alt values. In conclusion, we report the first m(sw) measured during outdoor high-altitude activities and determined that Pw,sol(SL) equation can be used to predict fluid needs during high-altitude activities without alterations for lower Pb. This model prediction provides a valid water planning tool for outdoor activities at high altitude up to 3,500 m. PMID:23271696

  7. Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Is Associated With Higher 1-year All-Cause Rehospitalization Rates in Patients Admitted for Acute Heart Failure.

    PubMed

    Valbusa, Filippo; Bonapace, Stefano; Grillo, Cristina; Scala, Luca; Chiampan, Andrea; Rossi, Andrea; Zoppini, Giacomo; Lonardo, Amedeo; Arcaro, Guido; Byrne, Christopher D; Targher, Giovanni

    2016-02-01

    Repeat hospitalization due to acute heart failure (HF) is a global public health problem that markedly impacts on health resource use. Identifying novel predictors of rehospitalization would help physicians to determine the optimal postdischarge plan for preventing HF rehospitalization. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging risk factor for many heart diseases, including HF. We assessed whether NAFLD at hospital admission predicts 1-year all-cause rehospitalization in patients with acute HF. We enrolled all patients consecutively admitted for acute HF to our General Medicine Division, from January 2013 to April 2014, after excluding patients with acute myocardial infarction, severe heart valve diseases, malignancy, known liver diseases, and those with volume overload related to extracardiac causes. NAFLD was diagnosed by ultrasonography and exclusion of competing etiologies. The primary outcome of the study was the 1-year all-cause rehospitalization rate. Among the 107 patients enrolled in the study, the cumulative rehospitalization rate was 12.1% at 1 month, 25.2% at 3 months, 29.9% at 6 months, and 38.3% at 1 year. Patients with NAFLD had markedly higher 1-year rehospitalization rates than those without NAFLD (58% vs 21% at 1 y; P < 0.001 by the log-rank test). Cox regression analysis revealed that NAFLD was associated with a 5.5-fold increased risk of rehospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio 5.56, 95% confidence interval 2.46-12.1, P < 0.001) after adjustment for multiple HF risk factors and potential confounders. In conclusion, NAFLD was independently associated with higher 1-year rehospitalization in patients hospitalized for acute HF. PMID:26886619

  8. Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Is Associated With Higher 1-year All-Cause Rehospitalization Rates in Patients Admitted for Acute Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Valbusa, Filippo; Bonapace, Stefano; Grillo, Cristina; Scala, Luca; Chiampan, Andrea; Rossi, Andrea; Zoppini, Giacomo; Lonardo, Amedeo; Arcaro, Guido; Byrne, Christopher D.; Targher, Giovanni

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Repeat hospitalization due to acute heart failure (HF) is a global public health problem that markedly impacts on health resource use. Identifying novel predictors of rehospitalization would help physicians to determine the optimal postdischarge plan for preventing HF rehospitalization. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging risk factor for many heart diseases, including HF. We assessed whether NAFLD at hospital admission predicts 1-year all-cause rehospitalization in patients with acute HF. We enrolled all patients consecutively admitted for acute HF to our General Medicine Division, from January 2013 to April 2014, after excluding patients with acute myocardial infarction, severe heart valve diseases, malignancy, known liver diseases, and those with volume overload related to extracardiac causes. NAFLD was diagnosed by ultrasonography and exclusion of competing etiologies. The primary outcome of the study was the 1-year all-cause rehospitalization rate. Among the 107 patients enrolled in the study, the cumulative rehospitalization rate was 12.1% at 1 month, 25.2% at 3 months, 29.9% at 6 months, and 38.3% at 1 year. Patients with NAFLD had markedly higher 1-year rehospitalization rates than those without NAFLD (58% vs 21% at 1 y; P < 0.001 by the log-rank test). Cox regression analysis revealed that NAFLD was associated with a 5.5-fold increased risk of rehospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio 5.56, 95% confidence interval 2.46–12.1, P < 0.001) after adjustment for multiple HF risk factors and potential confounders. In conclusion, NAFLD was independently associated with higher 1-year rehospitalization in patients hospitalized for acute HF. PMID:26886619

  9. Predicting Precession Rates from Secular Dynamics for Extra-solar Multi-planet Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Laerhoven, Christa

    2015-12-01

    Considering the secular dynamics of multi-planet systems provides substantial insight into the interactions between planets in those systems. Secular interactions are those that don't involve knowing where a planet is along its orbit, and they dominate when planets are not involved in mean motion resonances. These interactions exchange angular momentum among the planets, evolving their eccentricities and inclinations. To second order in the planets' eccentricities and inclinations, the eccentricity and inclination perturbations are decoupled. Given the right variable choice, the relevant differential equations are linear and thus the eccentricity and inclination behaviors can be described as a sum of eigenmodes. Since the underlying structure of the secular eigenmodes can be calculated using only the planets' masses and semi-major axes, one can elucidate the eccentricity and inclination behavior of planets in exoplanet systems even without knowing the planets' current eccentricities and inclinations. I have calculated both the eccentricity and inclination secular eigenmodes for the population of known multi-planet systems whose planets have well determined masses and periods and have used this to predict what range of pericenter precession (and nodal regression) rates the planets may have. One might have assumed that in any given system the planets with shorter periods would have faster precession rates, but I show that this is not necessarily the case. Planets that are 'loners' have narrow ranges of possible precession rates, while planets that are 'groupies' can have a wider range of possible precession rates. Several planets are expected to undergo significant precession on few-year timescales and many planets (though not the majority of planets) will undergo significant precession on decade timescales.

  10. A predictive model for corrosion fatigue crack growth rates in RPV steels exposed to PWR environments

    SciTech Connect

    Atkinson, J.D.; Chen, Z.; Yu, J.

    1995-12-31

    Corrosion fatigue crack propagation rates have been measured in A533B Class 1 plate in stagnant PWR primary water for a range of steel sulphur contents, temperature and corrosion potential values. Parametric descriptions of the data collected under constant rig conditions give good correlations for each variable and are consistent with a crack tip environment controlled process related to sulphur chemistry. A modified crack velocity equation is proposed to include temperature, sulphur content, polarization potential, frequency and {Delta}K values and it is shown how the predictions compare with the proposed ASME XI revision. Critical fatigue situations are identified for 0.003% and 0.019% sulphur steels typical of modern and old plant. The use of the equation in assessing the synergistic effect of variables is discussed.

  11. Comparing Cattell-Horn-Carroll factor models: differences between bifactor and higher order factor models in predicting language achievement.

    PubMed

    Beaujean, A Alexander; Parkin, Jason; Parker, Sonia

    2014-09-01

    Previous research using the Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) theory of cognitive abilities has shown a relationship between cognitive ability and academic achievement. Most of this research, however, has been done using the Woodcock-Johnson family of instruments with a higher order factor model. For CHC theory to grow, research should be done with other assessment instruments and tested with other factor models. This study examined the relationship between different factor models of CHC theory and the factors' relationships with language-based academic achievement (i.e., reading and writing). Using the co-norming sample for the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--4th Edition and the Wechsler Individual Achievement Test--2nd Edition, we found that bifactor and higher order models of the subtests of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-4th Edition produced a different set of Stratum II factors, which, in turn, have very different relationships with the language achievement variables of the Wechsler Individual Achievement Test--2nd Edition. We conclude that the factor model used to represent CHC theory makes little difference when general intelligence is of major interest, but it makes a large difference when the Stratum II factors are of primary concern, especially when they are used to predict other variables. PMID:24840178

  12. Heart Rate-Based Prediction of Fixed Blood Lactate Thresholds in Professional Team-Sport Players.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Tabar, Ibai; Llodio, Iñaki; Sánchez-Medina, Luis; Ruesta, Maite; Ibañez, Javier; Gorostiaga, Esteban M

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the speed associated with 90% of maximal heart rate (S90%HRmax) could predict speeds at fixed blood lactate concentrations of 3 mmol·L(-1) (S3mM) and 4 mmol·L(-1) (S4mM). Professional team-sport players of futsal (n = 10), handball (n = 16), and basketball (n = 10) performed a 4-stage discontinuous progressive running test followed, if exhaustion was not previously achieved, by an additional maximal continuous incremental running test to attain maximal heart rate (HRmax). The individual S3mM, S4mM, and S90%HRmax were determined by linear interpolation. S3mM (11.6 ± 1.5 km·h(-1)) and S4mM (12.5 ± 1.4 km·h(-1)) did not differ (p > 0.05) from S90%HRmax (12.0 ± 1.2 km·h(-1)). Very large significant (p < 0.001) relationships were found between S90%HRmax and S3mM (r = 0.82; standard error of the estimates [SEE] = 0.87 km·h(-1)), as well as between S90%HRmax and S4mM (r = 0.82; SEE = 0.87 km·h(-1)). S3mM and S4mM inversely correlated with %HRmax associated with running speeds of 10 and 12 km·h(-1) (r = 0.78-0.81; p < 0.001; SEE = 0.94-0.87 km·h(-1)). In conclusion, S3mM and S4mM can be accurately predicted by S90%HRmax in professional team-sport players. PMID:25844867

  13. Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Mortality Risk in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Yi-Da; Dewland, Thomas A.; Wencker, Detlef; Katz, Stuart D.

    2009-01-01

    Background Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcomes in populations with and without documented coronary heart disease. Decreased parasympathetic activity is thought to be associated with disease progression in chronic heart failure (HF), but an independent association between post-exercise HRR and clinical outcomes among such patients has not been established. Methods and Results We measured HRR (calculated as the difference between heart rate at peak exercise and after 1 minute of recovery) in 202 HF subjects and recorded 17 mortality and 15 urgent transplantation outcome events over 624 days of follow-up. Reduced post-exercise HRR was independently associated with increased event risk after adjusting for other exercise-derived variables (peak oxygen uptake and VE/VCO2 slope), for the Heart Failure Survival Score (adjusted HR 1.09 for one beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.13, p<0.0001) and the Seattle Heart Failure Model score (adjusted HR 1.08 for one beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.12, p<0.0001). Subjects in the lowest risk tertile based on post-exercise HRR (≥30 beats/min) had low risk of events irrespective of the risk predicted by the survival scores. In a subgroup of 15 subjects, reduced post-exercise HRR was associated with increased serum markers of inflammation (interleukin-6 r=0.58, p=0.024, high sensitivity C-reactive protein r=0.66, p=0.007). Conclusions Post-exercise HRR predicts mortality risk in patients with HF and provides prognostic information independent of previously described survival models. Pathophysiologic links between autonomic function and inflammation may be mediators of this association. PMID:19944361

  14. Predicting Fluctuating Rates of Hospitalizations in Relation to Influenza Epidemics and Meteorological Factors

    PubMed Central

    Batton-Hubert, Mireille; Sarazin, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction In France, rates of hospital admissions increase at the peaks of influenza epidemics. Predicting influenza-associated hospitalizations could help to anticipate increased hospital activity. The purpose of this study is to identify predictors of influenza epidemics through the analysis of meteorological data, and medical data provided by general practitioners. Methods Historical data were collected from Meteo France, the Sentinelles network and hospitals’ information systems for a period of 8 years (2007–2015). First, connections between meteorological and medical data were estimated with the Pearson correlation coefficient, Principal component analysis and classification methods (Ward and k-means). Epidemic states of tested weeks were then predicted for each week during a one-year period using linear discriminant analysis. Finally, transition probabilities between epidemic states were calculated with the Markov Chain method. Results High correlations were found between influenza-associated hospitalizations and the variables: Sentinelles and emergency department admissions, and anti-correlations were found between hospitalizations and each of meteorological factors applying a time lag of: -13, -12 and -32 days respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. Epidemic weeks were predicted accurately with the linear discriminant analysis method; however there were many misclassifications about intermediate and non-epidemic weeks. Transition probability to an epidemic state was 100% when meteorological variables were below: 2°C, 4 g/m3 and 32 W/m2, respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. This probability was 0% when meteorological variables were above: 6°C, 5.8g/m3 and 74W/m2. Conclusion These results confirm a good correlation between influenza-associated hospitalizations, meteorological factors and general practitioner’s activity, the latter being the strongest predictor of hospital activity. PMID

  15. Predicting Galaxy Star Formation Rates via the Co-evolution of Galaxies and Halos

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, Douglas F.; Hearin, Andrew P.; Berlind, Andreas A.; Becker, Matthew R.; Behroozi, Peter S.; Skibba, Ramin A.; Reyes, Reinabelle; Zentner, Andrew R.

    2014-03-06

    In this paper, we test the age matching hypothesis that the star formation rate (SFR) of a galaxy is determined by its dark matter halo formation history, and as such, that more quiescent galaxies reside in older halos. This simple model has been remarkably successful at predicting color-based galaxy statistics at low redshift as measured in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). To further test this method with observations, we present new SDSS measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function and galaxy-galaxy lensing as a function of stellar mass and SFR, separated into quenched and star forming galaxy samples. We find that our age matching model is in excellent agreement with these new measurements. We also employ a galaxy group finder and show that our model is able to predict: (1) the relative SFRs of central and satellite galaxies, (2) the SFR-dependence of the radial distribution of satellite galaxy populations within galaxy groups, rich groups, and clusters and their surrounding larger scale environments, and (3) the interesting feature that the satellite quenched fraction as a function of projected radial distance from the central galaxy exhibits an approx r-.15 slope, independent of environment. The accurate prediction for the spatial distribution of satellites is intriguing given the fact that we do not explicitly model satellite-specific processes after infall, and that in our model the virial radius does not mark a special transition region in the evolution of a satellite, contrary to most galaxy evolution models. The success of the model suggests that present-day galaxy SFR is strongly correlated with halo mass assembly history.

  16. Predicting metabolic rate during level and uphill outdoor walking using a low-cost GPS receiver.

    PubMed

    de Müllenheim, Pierre-Yves; Dumond, Rémy; Gernigon, Marie; Mahé, Guillaume; Lavenu, Audrey; Bickert, Sandrine; Prioux, Jacques; Noury-Desvaux, Bénédicte; Le Faucheur, Alexis

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of using speed and grade data obtained from a low-cost global positioning system (GPS) receiver to estimate metabolic rate (MR) during level and uphill outdoor walking. Thirty young, healthy adults performed randomized outdoor walking for 6-min periods at 2.0, 3.5, and 5.0 km/h and on three different grades: 1) level walking, 2) uphill walking on a 3.7% mean grade, and 3) uphill walking on a 10.8% mean grade. The reference MR [metabolic equivalents (METs) and oxygen uptake (V̇o2)] values were obtained using a portable metabolic system. The speed and grade were obtained using a low-cost GPS receiver (1-Hz recording). The GPS grade (Δ altitude/distance walked) was calculated using both uncorrected GPS altitude data and GPS altitude data corrected with map projection software. The accuracy of predictions using reference speed and grade (actual[SPEED/GRADE]) data was high [R(2) = 0.85, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 0.68 MET]. The accuracy decreased when GPS speed and uncorrected grade (GPS[UNCORRECTED]) data were used, although it remained substantial (R(2) = 0.66, RMSE = 1.00 MET). The accuracy was greatly improved when the GPS speed and corrected grade (GPS[CORRECTED]) data were used (R(2) = 0.82, RMSE = 0.79 MET). Published predictive equations for walking MR were also cross-validated using actual or GPS speed and grade data when appropriate. The prediction accuracy was very close when either actual[SPEED/GRADE] values or GPS[CORRECTED] values (for level and uphill combined) or GPS speed values (for level walking only) were used. These results offer promising research and clinical applications related to the assessment of energy expenditure during free-living walking. PMID:27402559

  17. Predicting galaxy star formation rates via the co-evolution of galaxies and haloes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Douglas F.; Hearin, Andrew P.; Berlind, Andreas A.; Becker, Matthew R.; Behroozi, Peter S.; Skibba, Ramin A.; Reyes, Reinabelle; Zentner, Andrew R.; van den Bosch, Frank C.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we test the age matching hypothesis that the star formation rate (SFR) of a galaxy of fixed stellar mass is determined by its dark matter halo formation history, e.g. more quiescent galaxies reside in older haloes. We present new Sloan Digital Sky Survey measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function and galaxy-galaxy lensing as a function of stellar mass and SFR, separated into quenched and star-forming galaxy samples to test this simple model. We find that our age matching model is in excellent agreement with these new measurements. We also find that our model is able to predict: (1) the relative SFRs of central and satellite galaxies, (2) the SFR dependence of the radial distribution of satellite galaxy populations within galaxy groups, rich groups, and clusters and their surrounding larger scale environments, and (3) the interesting feature that the satellite quenched fraction as a function of projected radial distance from the central galaxy exhibits an ˜r-.15 slope, independent of environment. These accurate predictions are intriguing given that we do not explicitly model satellite-specific processes after infall, and that in our model the virial radius does not mark a special transition region in the evolution of a satellite. The success of the model suggests that present-day galaxy SFR is strongly correlated with halo mass assembly history.

  18. A QSAR for the prediction of rate constants for the reaction of VOCs with nitrate radicals.

    PubMed

    Schindler, Michael

    2016-07-01

    A QSAR for the prediction of rate constants for the degradation of volatile organic compounds by nitrate radicals is developed using the Partial Least Squares technique. The QSAR is based on experimental data published in the literature for 260 compounds. They are modeled by a set of calculated descriptors from standard descriptor generation tools and from quantum chemistry. Out of several diversity-based partitionings of the data set a diverse set of 99 compounds turned out to be the optimum choice with regard to simplicity and performance. The final QSAR model is characterized by r(2) = 0.831 (fit) and q(2) = 0.823 (prediction), and by an r(2)pred = 0.862 for the n = 155 external validation set. The QSAR needs 3 latent variables. The most important descriptors for the QSAR are the ionization potential, obtained from density functional theory, and the energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital, which are modulated by fingerprints indicating the presence of specific molecular fragments like functional groups or ring systems. The applicability domain of the new QSAR was studied for some compound classes which are important for the crop protection industry, including (di)hydroxbenzenes and heterocyclic compounds. PMID:27037771

  19. Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reusser, Deborah A.; Lee, Henry, II; Frazier, Melanie; Ruiz, Gregory M.; Fofonoff, Paul W.; Minton, Mark S.; Miller, A. Whitman

    2013-01-01

    Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10–100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of 50 μm per m3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.

  20. Prediction of Ablation Rates from Solid Surfaces Exposed to High Temperature Gas Flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Akyuzlu, Kazim M.; Coote, David

    2013-01-01

    ablation. Two different ablation models are proposed to determine the heat loss from the solid surface due to the ablation of the solid material. Both of them are physics based. Various numerical simulations were carried out using both models to predict the temperature distribution in the solid and in the gas flow, and then predict the ablation rates at a typical NTR motor hydrogen gas temperature and pressure. Solid mass loss rate per foot of a pipe was also calculated from these predictions. The results are presented for fully developed turbulent flow conditions in a sample SS pipe with a 6 inch diameter.

  1. Predicting changes in reported notifiable disease rates for New Zealand using a SIR modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McBride, Graham; Slaney, David; Tait, Andrew

    2013-04-01

    changes in reported disease incidence as a function of temperature and rainfall. These models account for age-dependency (children versus adults), which is especially important because children can report substantially higher rates of zoonoses. The model is linear because the zoonotic pathogen 'reservoir' is overwhelmingly among animals, and so the usual interaction in which human-pathogen interactions affect the degree of environmental contamination does not apply in the short term (on the order of one year). Accordingly, the interaction can be approximated by a constant contact rate over a given year, even though the contact rates may vary between decades because of climate change and variability. This linearity property enables the derivation of analytical solutions to the model's governing equations, thereby providing for a more elegant examination of the model's properties and for making projections under climate change. The models have been calibrated to reported rates of these diseases. Simple exponential functions have been used to vary the pathogen contact rates for the reference years 2015, 2040 and 2090 under three climate change scenarios of low, medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases (B1, A1B, and A2). These formulations have been guided by the results of statistical models calibrated to historical disease reporting rates. The models have been used to calculate the ratio of reported illness rates to present rates projected for future years across New Zealand at the ~5 km scale. Detailed results will be presented for the reference year 2040.

  2. Development of Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction: Application to Satellite-Observed Surface Evaporation and Rain Rate (STIPER)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, S.; Chiu, L.

    2012-12-01

    A statistical-dynamical model has been used for operational guidance for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction. In this study, several multiple linear regression models and neural network (NN) models are developed for the intensity prediction of western North Pacific TCs at 24-, 48-, and 72-h intervals. The multiple linear regression models include a model of climatology and persistence (CLIPER), a model based on the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction System (STIPS), which serves as the base regression model (BASE), and a model of STIPS with additional satellite estimates of surface evaporation (SLHF) and innercore rain rate (IRR, STIPER model). A revised equation for the TC maximum potential intensity is derived using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager optimally interpolated sea surface temperature data, which have higher temporal and spatial resolutions. Analyses of the resulting models show the marginal improvement of STIPER over BASE. However, IRR and SLHF are found to be significant predictors in the predictor pool. Neural network models using the same predictors as STIPER show reductions of the mean absolute errors of 7%, 11%, and 16% relative to STIPER for 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts, respectively. The largest improvement is found for the intensity forecasts of the rapidly intensifying and rapidly decaying TCs. (top) The 24-h BASE, STIPER, and NN24 model mean absolute errors (MAEs) stratified by best-track initial intensity (MWS0) in 5-kt bins and (bottom) 24-h intensity change (DELV) in 5-kt bins for all nine verification years. Lower values of MAEs represent better forecasts. Dashed dotted lines represent the numbers of valid observations within a particular bin.

  3. Vagal Regulation of Heart Rate in the Prediction of Developmental Outcome for Very Low Birth Weight Preterm Infants.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doussard-Roosevelt, Jane A.; And Others

    1997-01-01

    Used heart rate and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) assessed at 33 to 35 weeks gestational age to predict developmental outcome at 3 years for very low birth weight infants. Found that RSA measures predicted developmental outcome beyond effects of birth weight, medical risk, and socioeconomic status. For infants < 1,000 grams, RSA maturation…

  4. Heart Rate during Conflicts Predicts Post-Conflict Stress-Related Behavior in Greylag Geese

    PubMed Central

    Wascher, Claudia A. F.; Fraser, Orlaith N.; Kotrschal, Kurt

    2010-01-01

    Background Social stressors are known to be among the most potent stressors in group-living animals. This is not only manifested in individual physiology (heart rate, glucocorticoids), but also in how individuals behave directly after a conflict. Certain ‘stress-related behaviors’ such as autopreening, body shaking, scratching and vigilance have been suggested to indicate an individual's emotional state. Such behaviors may also alleviate stress, but the behavioral context and physiological basis of those behaviors is still poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings We recorded beat-to-beat heart rates (HR) of 22 greylag geese in response to agonistic encounters using fully implanted sensor-transmitter packages. Additionally, for 143 major events we analyzed the behavior shown by our focal animals in the first two minutes after an interaction. Our results show that the HR during encounters and characteristics of the interaction predicted the frequency and duration of behaviors shown after a conflict. Conclusions/Significance To our knowledge this is the first study to quantify the physiological and behavioral responses to single agonistic encounters and to link this to post conflict behavior. Our results demonstrate that ‘stress-related behaviors’ are flexibly modulated by the characteristics of the preceding aggressive interaction and reflect the individual's emotional strain, which is linked to autonomic arousal. We found no support for the stress-alleviating hypothesis, but we propose that stress-related behaviors may play a role in communication with other group members, particularly with pair-partners. PMID:21187927

  5. A model to predict rate of dissolution of toxic compounds into seawater from an oil spill.

    PubMed

    Riazi, M R; Roomi, Y A

    2008-01-01

    In this paper a semianalytical model has been proposed to predict the rate at which oil components dissolve in water when an oil spill occurs in a marine environment. The model breaks the oil into a number of pseudocomponents proportional to the number of compounds originally present in the oil and calculates the rate of dissolution for each component. In addition, the components are divided into paraffinic, naphthenic, and aromatic hydrocarbon types and the amount of dissolution of each pseudocomponent is calculated versus time. In this method the concentration of most toxic components of oil (mainly monoaromatics) is determined. The model considers variable surface area and slick thickness and requires oil specifications (i.e., American Petroleum Institute [API] gravity and boiling point) in addition to air and water temperatures and speeds. The model has been applied to a Kuwaiti crude oil and its products naphtha and kerosene samples at 20 degrees C and 40 degrees C. The results could be useful in selection of an appropriate method for oil spill clean up as well as simulation of environmental impact of oil spill from toxicity points of view. PMID:19037808

  6. Prediction of the Rate of Uptake of Carbon Monoxide From Blood by Extravascular Tissues

    PubMed Central

    Bruce, Eugene N.; Bruce, Margaret C.; Erupaka, Kinnera

    2008-01-01

    Uptake of environmental carbon monoxide (CO) via the lungs raises the CO content of blood and of myoglobin (Mb)-containing tissues, but the blood-to-tissue diffusion coefficient for CO (DmCO) and tissue CO content are not easily measurable in humans. We used a multicompartment mathematical model to predict the effects of different values of DmCO on the time courses and magnitudes of CO content of blood and Mb-containing tissues when various published experimental studies were simulated. The model enhances our earlier model by adding mass balance equations for oxygen and by dividing the muscle compartment into 2 subcompartments. We found that several published experimental findings are compatible with either fast or slow rates of blood-tissue transfer of CO, whereas others are only compatible with slow rates of tissue uptake of CO. We conclude that slow uptake is most consistent with all of the experimental data. Slow uptake of CO by tissue is primarily due to the very small blood-to-tissue partial pressure gradients for CO. PMID:18313993

  7. Dynamic behavioural changes in the Spontaneously Hyperactive Rat: 3. Control by reinforcer rate changes and predictability.

    PubMed

    Williams, Jonathan; Sagvolden, Geir; Taylor, Eric; Sagvolden, Terje

    2009-03-17

    Variable intervals are widely believed to produce steady rates of responding. However, based on the calming effect of unpredictability in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) we hypothesised that an animal model of this disorder, the Spontaneously Hyperactive (or Hypertensive) Rat, would become less active following particularly variable sequences of interval-lengths in a variable interval schedule. From a large dataset of holepokes and tray-reports by rats in a variable interval reinforcement schedule, we extracted numerous short sequences of intervals on the basis of the first, second, and third derivatives of reinforcement timing (i.e. rate, acceleration, and jerk) in recent intervals. Sets of selected intervals were compared with one another to elucidate the effect of these different derivatives on behaviour in the current interval. Results show that SHR are more active after richer recent reinforcement; after decelerating reinforcers; and after predictable reinforcers. The hypothesis is supported. In conclusion, SHR behaviour largely complies with the Extended Temporal Difference model which in turn has been previously validated against published data in ADHD. The Extended TD model therefore is able to account for two species' behaviour in a wide range of experimental paradigms. SHR are similar in several respects to group averages of children with ADHD, except that SHR have reduced variability and perform actions faster than controls. Hyperactivity in the SHR is very dependent on momentary environmentally determined states, which is an important area for future investigation of ADHD. PMID:18824035

  8. Predicting reduction rates of energetic nitroaromatic compounds using calculated one-electron reduction potentials.

    PubMed

    Salter-Blanc, Alexandra J; Bylaska, Eric J; Johnston, Hayley J; Tratnyek, Paul G

    2015-03-17

    The evaluation of new energetic nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) for use in green munitions formulations requires models that can predict their environmental fate. Previously invoked linear free energy relationships (LFER) relating the log of the rate constant for this reaction (log(k)) and one-electron reduction potentials for the NAC (E1NAC) normalized to 0.059 V have been re-evaluated and compared to a new analysis using a (nonlinear) free-energy relationship (FER) based on the Marcus theory of outer-sphere electron transfer. For most reductants, the results are inconsistent with simple rate limitation by an initial, outer-sphere electron transfer, suggesting that the linear correlation between log(k) and E1NAC is best regarded as an empirical model. This correlation was used to calibrate a new quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) using previously reported values of log(k) for nonenergetic NAC reduction by Fe(II) porphyrin and newly reported values of E1NAC determined using density functional theory at the M06-2X/6-311++G(2d,2p) level with the COSMO solvation model. The QSAR was then validated for energetic NACs using newly measured kinetic data for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN). The data show close agreement with the QSAR, supporting its applicability to other energetic NACs. PMID:25671710

  9. Mothers' Adult Attachment Interview ratings predict preschool children's IQ following domestic violence exposure.

    PubMed

    Busch, Amy L; Lieberman, Alicia F

    2010-11-01

    This study examined links between mothers' Adult Attachment Interview ratings (AAI; Main, Goldwyn, & Hesse, 2003) and their preschool children's IQ among 70 families who had experienced domestic violence. As predicted, children displayed significantly stronger verbal and perceptual-organizational abilities when their mothers exhibited more secure, i.e. coherent, states of mind regarding attachment. Mothers' coherence of mind on the AAI explained 18% of the variance in children's Verbal IQ and 12% of the variance in children's Performance IQ, after controlling for maternal education. Mothers' attachment security also was related to children's total IQ score, but this association was accounted for by effects on children's Verbal IQ. Children whose mothers were rated as unclassifiable on the AAI and those whose mothers were unresolved/insecure had lower IQ scores. Although mothers who appeared more secure on the AAI were more sensitively responsive toward their children, mediational analyses suggested that there was a direct link between mothers' security and children's IQ that was not explained by sensitive parenting. This suggests that clinical interventions for children exposed to domestic violence should include helping their mothers achieve coherent ways of thinking about their own childhood experiences, including past trauma. PMID:20931412

  10. A low bioimpedance phase angle predicts a higher mortality and lower nutritional status in chronic dialysis patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumler Md, Francis

    2010-04-01

    Bioelectrical impedance analysis is an established technique for body composition analysis. The phase angle parameter, an index of body cell mass, tissue hydration, and membrane integrity, makes it suitable for assessing nutritional status and survivability. We evaluated the significance of a low phase angle value on nutritional status and mortality in 285 chronic dialysis patients during a longitudinal prospective observational study. Patients in the lower phase angle tertile had decreased body weight, body mass index, fat free mass, body cell mass, and lower serum albumin concentrations than those in the higher tertile (P<001). In addition, mortality rates were significantly lower (P=0.05) in the highest tertile patients. In conclusion, the phase angle is a useful method for identifying dialysis patients at high risk for malnutrition and increased mortality.

  11. Higher FOXP3-TSDR demethylation rates in adjacent normal tissues in patients with colon cancer were associated with worse survival

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The influence of natural regulatory T cells (nTregs) on the patients with colon cancer is unclear. Demethylated status of the Treg-specific demethylated region (TSDR) of the FOXP3 gene was reported to be a potential biomarker for the identification of nTregs. Methods The demethylation rate of the TSDR (TSDR-DMR) was calculated by using methylation-specific quantitative polymerase chain reaction (MS-qPCR) assay. The expression of TSDR-DMR and FOXP3 mRNA was investigated in various colorectal cancer cell lines. A total of 130 colon carcinoma samples were utilized to study the DMR at tumor sites (DMRT) and adjacent normal tissue (DMRN). The correlations between DMRs and clinicopathological variables of patients with colon cancer were studied. Results The TSDR-DMRs varied dramatically among nTregs (97.920 ± 0.466%) and iTregs (3.917 ± 0.750%). Significantly, DMRT (3.296 ± 0.213%) was higher than DMRN (1.605 ± 0.146%) (n = 130, p = 0.000). Higher DMRN levels were found in female patients (p = 0.001) and those with distant metastases (p = 0.017), and were also associated with worse recurrence-free survival in non-stage IV patients (low vs. high, p = 0.022). However, further Cox multivariate analysis revealed that the FOXP3-TSDR status does not have prognostic value. Conclusion MS-qPCR assays of FOXP3-TSDR can efficiently distinguish nTregs from non-nTregs. Abnormal recruitment of nTregs occurs in the local tumor microenvironment. Infiltration of tissue-resident nTregs may have a negative role in anti-tumor effects in patients with colon cancer; however, this role is limited and complicated. PMID:24938080

  12. Rapid increase to double breathing rate appears during REM sleep in synchrony with REM - a higher CNS control of breathing? -.

    PubMed

    Sato, Shinichi; Kanbayashi, Takashi; Kondo, Hideaki; Matsubuchi, Namiko; Ono, Kyoichi; Shimizu, Tetsuo

    2010-01-01

    Breathing rate (BR) during rapid eye movement (REM) sleep is known to fluctuate largely, while increases in BR during REM sleep reported were small. In our mice experiments, we found that mice exhibit a rapid increase in instantaneous BR (RIBR) of >2 fold during natural sleep with accompanying atonia, laying their sides down. The RIBR was further found in a sleeping mouse attached with EEG electrodes when the EEG amplitude and delta wave power were lower. Therefore, it is likely that mice show RIBRs during REM sleep. Interestingly, similar RIBRs accompanied by atonia and REM burst during REM sleep were also found in humans by standard polysomnographic studies in 11 healthy volunteers (age: 22.3 +/- 2.8) with BR measurement by nasal/oral airflow sensors and chest/abdomen belt sensors. All subjects underwent RIBR of doubled BR at least once a night. As SpO(2) before RIBRs was a level not effective to be a respiratory stimulant (96.7 +/- 1.6 %, n = 63), the RIBR seems to be controlled by higher central nervous system rather than autonomic nervous system control on response to central and peripheral chemical sensors. In fact, tachypnea with suppressed amplitude during RIBR resulted in a slight fall in SpO(2) (96.4 +/- 1.7 %, p = 0.0007). In the present study, RIBRs accompanied by atonia and REM were not necessarily consistent in change in rate and/or amplitude, therefore, these various pattern of RIBRs may be potential indices of dreams with various emotional contents. Analysis of instantaneous BR, thus, may be a helpful tool for understanding the neural control of breathing during REM sleep. PMID:20217359

  13. Role of the Biomarker p16 in Downgrading -IN 2 Diagnoses and Predicting Higher-grade Lesions.

    PubMed

    Maniar, Kruti P; Sanchez, Beatriz; Paintal, Ajit; Gursel, Demirkan B; Nayar, Ritu

    2015-12-01

    In 2012, the College of American Pathologists and American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology published the "LAST" recommendations for histopathology reporting of human papilloma virus-related squamous lesions of the lower anogenital tract, including the use of a 2-tier nomenclature (low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion/high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [LSIL/HSIL]) and expanded use of the biomarker p16 to classify equivocal lesions as either precancer (HSIL) or low-grade lesions (LSIL)/non-human papilloma virus changes. We aimed to determine (1) the frequency with which the poorly reproducible diagnosis of intermediate-grade (-IN 2) lesion in the lower anogenital tract would be downgraded on the basis of p16 results, and (2) whether p16 status was predictive of subsequent higher-grade lesions. A total of 200 specimens diagnosed as an intermediate-grade (-IN 2) lesion of the cervix (168), vagina (2), vulva (2), and anus (28) were reviewed and immunostained for p16. Slides were independently reviewed by 2 pathologists, with discrepant p16 interpretations adjudicated by a third pathologist. Of the 200 cases, 32% were negative for p16. Among the 166 patients with subsequent pathology (including 131 excisions), 26.2% of p16-positive cases versus 4.4% of p16-negative cases were associated with a subsequent diagnosis of HSIL (-IN 3) or worse (P=0.002). Reproducibility of the biopsy diagnosis was fair, with no significant difference with the addition of p16 or using 2 versus 3 tiers. In 11.5% of cases, there was discordance in p16 interpretation (κ 0.735, good agreement). The results indicate that using the Lower Anogenital Squamous Terminology recommendations would result in approximately one third of equivocal (-IN 2) diagnoses being downgraded to LSIL over 1 year in a busy academic practice. The significant association of p16 expression with a higher risk for HSIL on a subsequent specimen suggests that use of p16 to adjudicate equivocal (-IN 2

  14. Predictions and Experimental Microstructural Characterization of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanikar, Prasenjit

    Different aluminum alloys can be combined, as composites, for tailored dynamic applications. Most investigations pertaining to metallic alloy layered composites, however, have been based on quasi-static approaches. The dynamic failure of layered metallic composites, therefore, needs to be characterized in terms of strength, toughness, and fracture response. A dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity formulation, finite-element techniques, rational crystallographic orientation relations and a new fracture methodology were used to predict the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary (GB) distributions. The new fracture methodology, based on an overlap method and phantom nodes, is used with a fracture criteria specialized for fracture on different cleavage planes. One of the objectives of this investigation, therefore, was to determine the optimal arrangements of the 2139 and 2195 aluminum alloys for a metallic layered composite that would combine strength, toughness and fracture resistance for high strain-rate applications. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain-rate applications, and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance. The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-boned interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking and delamination were the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be optimized for high strain-rate

  15. Differential Prediction of Study Success across Academic Programs in the Swedish Context: The Validity of Grades and Tests as Selection Instruments for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cliffordson, Christina

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to investigate the predictive validity of criterion- and norm-referenced grades and the Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (SweSAT) and, in particular, possible differences in the prediction of achievement in higher education across academic programs. The analyses were based on credit points obtained by 164,106 Swedish…

  16. Heart rate variability analysis during head-up tilt test predicts nitroglycerine-induced syncope

    PubMed Central

    Efremov, Kristian; Brisinda, Donatella; Venuti, Angela; Iantorno, Emilia; Cataldi, Claudia; Fioravanti, Francesco; Fenici, Riccardo

    2014-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to determine whether or not heart rate variability (HRV) analysis during the first 20 min of head-up tilt testing could predict whether patients will develop syncope after nitroglycerine administration. Design 64 patients with previous loss of consciousness underwent head-up tilt testing with the Italian protocol, which involves the administration of nitroglycerine after 20 min of tilt. HRV parameters were analysed from 5 min intervals selected during pretest supine rest (phase 1), the first 5 min (phase 2) and the last 5 min (phase 3) of passive 20 min of tilting, prior to the administration of nitroglycerine. Differences in power (ms2) of the spectral components between the various phases of tilting were calculated for each patient and expressed as Δ. Results 20 patients (group 1, 9 women, mean age 43.2±24.5 years) had a syncope during tilt testing after nitroglycerine, while the other 44 (group 2, 24 women, mean age 41±20.5 years) did not. In group 1, the HRV spectral parameters high frequency (HF) and total power (TP) had a significant decrement from phases 2 to 3 (p=0.012 and 0.027, respectively), while in group 2 the average HF and TP values did not change. The Δ of spectral parameters between phases 2 and 3 were able to differentiate between the two groups and to predict syncope after nitroglycerine administration (p<0.05). Conclusions HRV analysis within the first 20 min of passive tilting demonstrated that patients with nitroglycerine-induced syncope are characterised by a progressive decrement of parasympathetic activity, which does not occur in patients with a negative response to nitroglycerine. If confirmed on a wider population, HRV analysis could replace nitroglycerine administration and shorten the duration of the tilt test. PMID:25332802

  17. Energy expenditure in children predicted from heart rate and activity calibrated against respiration calorimetry.

    PubMed

    Treuth, M S; Adolph, A L; Butte, N F

    1998-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to predict energy expenditure (EE) from heart rate (HR) and activity calibrated against 24-h respiration calorimetry in 20 children. HR, oxygen consumption (VO2), carbon dioxide production (VCO2), and EE were measured during rest, sleep, exercise, and over 24 h by room respiration calorimetry on two separate occasions. Activity was monitored by a leg vibration sensor. The calibration day (day 1) consisted of specified behaviors categorized as inactive (lying, sitting, standing) or active (two bicycle sessions). On the validation day (day 2), the child selected activities. Separate regression equations for VO2, VCO2, and EE for method 1 (combining awake and asleep using HR, HR2, and HR3), method 2 (separating awake and asleep), and method 3 (separating awake into active and inactive, and combining activity and HR) were developed using the calibration data. For day 1, the errors were similar for 24-h VO2, VCO2, and EE among methods and also among HR, HR2, and HR3. The methods were validated using measured data from day 2. There were no significant differences in HR, VO2, VCO2, respiratory quotient, and EE values during rest, sleep, or over the 24 h between days 1 and 2. Applying the linear HR equations to day 2 data, the errors were the lowest with the combined HR/activity method (-2.6 +/- 5.2%, -4.1 +/- 5.9%, -2.9 +/- 5.1% for VO2, VCO2, and EE, respectively). To demonstrate the utility of the HR/activity method, HR and activity were monitored for 24 h at home (day 3). Free-living EE was predicted as 7,410 +/- 1,326 kJ/day. In conclusion, the combination of HR and activity is an acceptable method for determining EE not only for groups of children, but for individuals. PMID:9688868

  18. Mortality, Recurrence, and Dependency Rates Are Higher after Acute Ischemic Stroke in Elderly Patients with Diabetes Compared to Younger Patients

    PubMed Central

    Long, Xue; Lou, Yongzhong; Gu, Hongfei; Guo, Xiaofei; Wang, Tao; Zhu, Yanxia; Zhao, Wenjuan; Ning, Xianjia; Li, Bin; Wang, Jinghua; An, Zhongping

    2016-01-01

    Stroke has a greater effect on the elderly than on younger patients. However, the long-term outcomes associated with stroke among elderly patients with diabetes are unknown. We aimed to assess the differences in long-term outcomes between young and elderly stroke patients with diabetes. A total of 3,615 acute ischemic stroke patients with diabetes were recruited for this study between 2006 and 2014. Outcomes at 12 and 36 months after stroke (including mortality, recurrence, and dependency) were compared between younger (age <75 years) and elderly (age ≥75 years) patients. The elderly group included 692 patients (19.1%) overall. Elderly patients were more likely than younger patients to have a Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification of stroke due to cardioembolism, moderate and severe stroke, and atrial fibrillation, but less likely to have hypertension and dyslipidemia, current smokers, and alcohol consumers. Mortality, dependency, and recurrence rates at 12 months after stroke were 19.0, 48.5, and 20.9% in the elderly group and 7.4, 30.9, and 15.4% in the younger group, respectively (all P < 0.05). Corresponding rates at 36 months after stroke were 35.4, 78.7, and 53.8% in the elderly group and 13.7, 61.7, and 43.0% in the younger group, respectively (all P < 0.001). The mortality, dependency, and recurrence rates at 12 and 36 months after stroke were significantly higher in the elderly group than in the younger group after adjusting for stroke subtypes, stroke severity, and risk factors. Odds ratios (95% confidence interval) at 12 and 36 months after stroke were 2.18 (1.64–2.89) and 3.10 (2.35–4.08), respectively, for mortality, all P < 0.001; 1.81 (1.49–2.20) and 2.04 (1.57–2.34), respectively, for dependency, all P < 0.001; and 1.37 (1.06–1.76) and 1.40 (1.07–1.85), respectively, for recurrence, P = 0.016. The findings from this study suggest that management and secondary prevention should be emphasized in elderly patients with

  19. Mortality, Recurrence, and Dependency Rates Are Higher after Acute Ischemic Stroke in Elderly Patients with Diabetes Compared to Younger Patients.

    PubMed

    Long, Xue; Lou, Yongzhong; Gu, Hongfei; Guo, Xiaofei; Wang, Tao; Zhu, Yanxia; Zhao, Wenjuan; Ning, Xianjia; Li, Bin; Wang, Jinghua; An, Zhongping

    2016-01-01

    Stroke has a greater effect on the elderly than on younger patients. However, the long-term outcomes associated with stroke among elderly patients with diabetes are unknown. We aimed to assess the differences in long-term outcomes between young and elderly stroke patients with diabetes. A total of 3,615 acute ischemic stroke patients with diabetes were recruited for this study between 2006 and 2014. Outcomes at 12 and 36 months after stroke (including mortality, recurrence, and dependency) were compared between younger (age <75 years) and elderly (age ≥75 years) patients. The elderly group included 692 patients (19.1%) overall. Elderly patients were more likely than younger patients to have a Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification of stroke due to cardioembolism, moderate and severe stroke, and atrial fibrillation, but less likely to have hypertension and dyslipidemia, current smokers, and alcohol consumers. Mortality, dependency, and recurrence rates at 12 months after stroke were 19.0, 48.5, and 20.9% in the elderly group and 7.4, 30.9, and 15.4% in the younger group, respectively (all P < 0.05). Corresponding rates at 36 months after stroke were 35.4, 78.7, and 53.8% in the elderly group and 13.7, 61.7, and 43.0% in the younger group, respectively (all P < 0.001). The mortality, dependency, and recurrence rates at 12 and 36 months after stroke were significantly higher in the elderly group than in the younger group after adjusting for stroke subtypes, stroke severity, and risk factors. Odds ratios (95% confidence interval) at 12 and 36 months after stroke were 2.18 (1.64-2.89) and 3.10 (2.35-4.08), respectively, for mortality, all P < 0.001; 1.81 (1.49-2.20) and 2.04 (1.57-2.34), respectively, for dependency, all P < 0.001; and 1.37 (1.06-1.76) and 1.40 (1.07-1.85), respectively, for recurrence, P = 0.016. The findings from this study suggest that management and secondary prevention should be emphasized in elderly patients with diabetes in

  20. HIV Positivity but not HPV/p16 Status is Associated with Higher Recurrence Rate in Anal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Meyer, Joshua E.; Panico, Vinicius J. A.; Marconato, Heloisa M. F.; Sherr, David L.; Christos, Paul

    2014-01-01

    .06). Conclusion The regional and distant failure rate was not related to HPV/p16 positivity or histologic differentiation of ACA; however, HIV positivity appeared to be associated with a higher recurrence rate and worse recurrence-free survival. PMID:24014082

  1. The Efficacy of ATI Predictive Testing and Remediation on National Certification and Licensure Examination-Registered Nurse Pass Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winter, Alexandra Selman

    2013-01-01

    This project study sought to evaluate the effects of implementing quarterly predictive testing and remediation on National Certification and Licensure Examination-Registered Nurse (NCLEX-RN) pass rates of an associate's degree nursing program at a small Midwestern community college. The college's pass rate on the NCLEX-RN has been below both the…

  2. Use of Follicular Output Rate to Predict Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Rehman, Rehana; Mustafa, Rozina; Baig, Mukhtiar; Arif, Sara; Hashmi, Muhammad Faisal

    2016-01-01

    Background The measurement of follicular output rate (FORT) has been proposed as a good indicator for evaluating follicular response to the exogenous recombinant folliclestimulating hormone (rFSH). This places FORT as a promising qualitative marker for ovarian function. The objective of the study was to determine FORT as a predictor of oocyte competence, embryo quality and clinical pregnancy after intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). Materials and Methods This prospective study was carried out on a group of infer- tile females (n=282) at Islamabad Clinic Serving Infertile Couples, Islamabad, Pakistan, from June 2010 till August 2013. Downregulated females were stimulated in injection gonadotropins and on ovulation induction day, pre-ovulatory follicle count (PFC) was determined using transvaginal ultrasound scan (TVUS), and FORT was determined as a ratio of PFC to antral follicle count (AFC)×100. Group I consisted of females with a negative pregnancy test, while group II had a positive pregnancy test that was confirmed with the appearance of fetal cardiac activity. Linear regression analyses of categorical variables of clinical pregnancy along with other independent variables, including FORT, were performed using SPSS version 15.0. Results Pregnancy occurred in 101/282 women who were tested, recording a clinical pregnancy rate of about 35.8%. FORT values were higher in group II as compared to group I females (P=0.0001). In multiple regression analysis, 97.7, 87.1, 78.2, and 83.4% variations were explained based on the number of retrieved oocytes per patients, number of metaphase II oocytes retrieved, number of fertilized oocytes, and number of cleaved embryos, respectively, indicating FORT as an independent predictor. Conclusion FORT is a predictor of oocyte competence in terms of a number of retrieved, mature and fertilized oocytes. It also gives information about the number of cleaved embryos and clinical pregnancy rate. PMID:27441049

  3. Predicting the Discharge Rate Contribution of the Binuwang Watershed to the Agos River, Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aquino, Dakila; Paningbatan, Eduardo; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo

    2014-05-01

    In 2004, Typhoon Winnie brought torrential rains which triggered massive landslides and floods which devastated the provinces of Infanta, Real and General Nakar in the Philippines. Winnie inflicted USD 111.14 million worth of damage to crops, livestock and infrastructure and left thousands dead or homeless. The Binuwang River is a sub-tributary of the Agos River, but the extent to which it contributes to flooding has not yet been determined. This study measures the depth of the Binuwang River to estimate the discharge rate contribution of the Binuwang River Watershed to the Agos River using an automatic rain gauge recorder and water level loggers set to record at 5-minute intervals. Flood-generating rainfall events were monitored during the onset of Typhoon Nesat (locally called 'Pedring') September 26-27, 2011. The automated rain gauge recorded 227 mm cumulative rainfall over a 6-hour and 41-minute period. It reached a peak rainfall intensity of 17.5 mm per 5-minute interval that generated a discharge height increase of 1.8 m at the monitoring station and a total discharge volume of 99,823 m3 over a 35-hour duration. An 8.81-hour lag time from the peak rainfall to the peak discharge concentration was recorded. A PCRaster-based hydrologic model was used to predict the total discharge hydrograph of the Binuwang River Watershed. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and soil and land use maps were prepared to parameterize the model. The observed and predicted discharge hydrographs were found to be highly correlated. Among the parameters used to calibrate the model hydrologic output, most sensitive are the infiltration saturation coefficient and Manning's roughness coefficient. An increase in the infiltration saturation coefficient resulted in a decreased discharge height, while an increase of Manning's roughness coefficient lengthened the lag time. The predicted discharge volume and height were used to simulate the impact of reforestation and land conversion to cultivated

  4. Comparison of risk stratification tools in predicting outcomes of patients with higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes treated with azanucleosides

    PubMed Central

    Zeidan, AM; Sekeres, MA; Garcia-Manero, G; Steensma, DP; Zell, K; Barnard, J; Ali, NA; Zimmerman, C; Roboz, G; DeZern, A; Nazha, A; Jabbour, E; Kantarjian, H; Gore, SD; Maciejewski, JP; List, A; Komrokji, R

    2016-01-01

    Established prognostic tools in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) were largely derived from untreated patient cohorts. Although azanucleosides are standard therapies for higher-risk (HR)-MDS, the relative prognostic performance of existing prognostic tools among patients with HR-MDS receiving azanucleoside therapy is unknown. In the MDS Clinical Research Consortium database, we compared the prognostic utility of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), revised IPSS (IPSS-R), MD Anderson Prognostic Scoring System (MDAPSS), World Health Organization-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) and the French Prognostic Scoring System (FPSS) among 632 patients who presented with HR-MDS and were treated with azanucleosides as the first-line therapy. Median follow-up from diagnosis was 15.7 months. No prognostic tool predicted the probability of achieving an objective response. Nonetheless, all five tools were associated with overall survival (OS, P = 0.025 for the IPSS, P = 0.011 for WPSS and P < 0.001 for the other three tools). The corrected Akaike Information Criteria, which were used to compare OS with the different prognostic scoring systems as covariates (lower is better) were 4138 (MDAPSS), 4156 (FPSS), 4196 (IPSS-R), 4186 (WPSS) and 4196 (IPSS). Patients in the highest-risk groups of the prognostic tools had a median OS from diagnosis of 11 – 16 months and should be considered for up-front transplantation or experimental approaches. PMID:26464171

  5. PREDICTIONS OF EVAPORATIVE LOSS RATES OF SOLUTES IN STAGNANT AND TURBENT WATERS IN RELATION TO RATES OF REFERENCE MATERIALS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A previously published kinetic model for evaporative rates of substances into air leads to the estimation of the dependence of solute transfer coefficients on turbulence applied to the system. The ratios of the transfer coefficients of all solutes become insensitive to air turbul...

  6. Higher expression levels of the HOXA9 gene, closely associated with MLL-PTD and EZH2 mutations, predict inferior outcome in acute myeloid leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Li; Sun, Junzhong; Liu, Fang; Zhang, Hui; Ma, Yigai

    2016-01-01

    Background Although the biological insight of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) has increased in the past few years, the discovery of novel discriminative biomarkers remains of utmost value for improving outcome predictions. Systematical studies concerning the clinical implications and genetic correlations of HOXA9 aberrations in patients with AML are relatively promising. Materials and methods Here, we investigated mutational status and the mRNA levels of the HOXA9 gene in 258 patients with AML. Furthermore, hematological characteristics, chromosome abnormalities, and genetic mutations associated with AML were analyzed, followed by the assessment of clinical survival. Besides, the expression level and mutational status of MEIS1, a cofactor of HOXA9, were also detected in patients with AML with the aim of a deeper understanding about the homeodomain-containing transcription factors associated with hematological characteristics. Results HOXA9 and MEIS1 mutations were detected in 4.26% and 3.49% AML cases, respectively. No correlations were detected between mutation status and clinical characteristics, cytogenetic and genetic aberrations, and clinical survival. Higher HOXA9 expression levels were correlated with white blood cell count and closely associated with unfavorable karyotype as well as MLL-PTD and EZH2 mutations, whereas, there was an inverse correlation with the French–American–British M3 subtype. Compared with patients with lower HOXA9 expression levels, those with higher HOXA9 expression levels had a lower complete remission rate and inferior survivals in both AML and cytogenetically normal AML. Conclusion HOXA9 expression may serve as a promising biomarker to ameliorate a prognostic model for predicting clinical outcome and consummating individualized treatment in patients with AML. PMID:26929642

  7. The development of a rating scale for the prediction of success in weight reduction.

    PubMed

    Dash, J D; Brown, R A

    1977-07-01

    A valid and reliable rating instrument was developed that has predictive value with regard to the ability to lose weight. The major constructs that the test was intended to measure were knowledge of the pragmatics of weight reduction and obesity and the role of fantasy in weight loss. Test items were drawn from research findings in the obesity literature and from subject matter experts in the fields of nutrition, internal medicine and clinical psychology. Test-retest reliability coefficients for the new instrument range from .64 to .95. Construct validity was ascertained through administration of the scale to groups of high school students (N=20), college nutrition students (N=30) and successful and unsuccessful dieters (Ns=28 and 20, respectively). It appears that the scale, The Dash-Brown Survey of Fact and Fiction in Weight Reduction (DBS), may be employed usefully to assess the remediability of obesity for potential dieters. The data further suggest that cognitive awareness of diet-related issues is significant in weight reduction. PMID:893707

  8. Canine fetal heart rate: do accelerations or decelerations predict the parturition day in bitches?

    PubMed

    Gil, E M U; Garcia, D A A; Giannico, A T; Froes, T R

    2014-10-15

    Ultrasonography is a safe and efficient technique for monitoring fetal development and viability. One of the most important and widely used parameters to verify fetal viability is the fetal heart rate (HR). In human medicine, the fetal HR normally oscillates during labor in transient accelerations and decelerations associated with uterine contractions. The present study investigated whether these variations also occur in canine fetuses and its relationship to parturition. A cohort study was conducted in 15 pregnant bitches undergoing two-dimensional high-resolution ultrasonographic examination during the 8th and 9th week of gestation. Fetal HR was assessed in M-mode for 5 minutes in each fetus in all bitches. In addition, the bitches were monitored for clinical signs of imminent parturition. Associations between the HR, antepartum time, and delivery characteristics were evaluated with a Poisson regression model. Fetal HR acceleration and deceleration occurred in canine fetuses and predicted the optimal time of parturition. These findings can help veterinarians and sonographers better understand this phenomenon in canine fetuses. PMID:24888684

  9. Temperature dependences of growth rates and carrying capacities of marine bacteria depart from metabolic theoretical predictions.

    PubMed

    Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan; Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Díaz-Pérez, Laura; Morán, Xosé Anxelu G

    2015-10-01

    Using the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) framework, we evaluated over a whole annual cycle the monthly responses to temperature of the growth rates (μ) and carrying capacities (K) of heterotrophic bacterioplankton at a temperate coastal site. We used experimental incubations spanning 6ºC with bacterial physiological groups identified by flow cytometry according to membrane integrity (live), nucleic acid content (HNA and LNA) and respiratory activity (CTC+). The temperature dependence of μ at the exponential phase of growth was summarized by the activation energy (E), which was variable (-0.52 to 0.72 eV) but followed a seasonal pattern, only reaching the hypothesized value for aerobic heterotrophs of 0.65 eV during the spring bloom for the most active bacterial groups (live, HNA, CTC+). K (i.e. maximum experimental abundance) peaked at 4 × 10(6) cells mL(-1) and generally covaried with μ but, contrary to MTE predictions, it did not decrease consistently with temperature. In the case of live cells, the responses of μ and K to temperature were positively correlated and related to seasonal changes in substrate availability, indicating that the responses of bacteria to warming are far from homogeneous and poorly explained by MTE at our site. PMID:26362925

  10. Temperature rating prediction of Tibetan robe ensemble based on different wearing ways.

    PubMed

    Li, Jun; Guo, Xiaofang; Wang, Yunyi

    2012-09-01

    Each piece of Western clothing has a unique temperature rating (TR); however, based on different wearing ways, one Tibetan robe ensemble can be used in various environments of the Tibetan plateau. To explain this environmental adaptation, thermal insulations and TR values of Tibetan robe ensembles in three typical wearing ways were measured by manikin testing and wearing trials, respectively. The TR prediction models for Tibetan robe ensembles were built in this research. The results showed that the thermal insulations of Tibetan robe ensembles changed from 0.26 clo to 0.91 clo; the corresponding TRs ranged from 9.90 °C to 16.86 °C because of different wearing ways. Not only the thermal insulation, but also the ways of wearing Tibetan robes was important to determining their TR values. The three TR models and a triangle area for each piece of Tibetan clothing explained its positive adaptation into the environment; this was different from the current TR models for Western clothing. PMID:22321946

  11. Helping from the heart: Voluntary upregulation of heart rate variability predicts altruistic behavior.

    PubMed

    Bornemann, Boris; Kok, Bethany E; Böckler, Anne; Singer, Tania

    2016-09-01

    Our various daily activities continually require regulation of our internal state. These regulatory processes covary with changes in High Frequency Heart Rate Variability (HF-HRV), a marker of parasympathetic activity. Specifically, incidental increases in HF-HRV accompany positive social engagement behavior and prosocial action. Little is known about deliberate regulation of HF-HRV and the role of voluntary parasympathetic regulation in prosocial behavior. Here, we present a novel biofeedback task that measures the ability to deliberately increase HF-HRV. In two large samples, we find that a) participants are able to voluntarily upregulate HF-HRV, and b) variation in this ability predicts individual differences in altruistic prosocial behavior, but not non-altruistic forms of prosociality, assessed through 14 different measures. Our findings suggest that self-induction of parasympathetic states is involved in altruistic action. The biofeedback task may provide a measure of deliberate parasympathetic regulation, with implications for the study of attention, emotion, and social behavior. PMID:27381930

  12. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    PubMed Central

    Yacoby, Amnon; Dudai, Yadin; Mendelsohn, Avi

    2015-01-01

    Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK). We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and were immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or 1 day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information 1 day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories. PMID:25709571

  13. Spatial statistical point prediction guidance for heating-rate-limited aeroassisted orbital transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Pradipto; Conway, Bruce A.

    2015-06-01

    Feedback control of constrained non-linear dynamical systems satisfying a certain optimality criterion and meeting a specified transfer objective in the state space is recognized as one of the most challenging problems in control theory. One approach to computing optimal feedback policies is the dynamic programming route of numerically solving the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) partial differential equation directly. In this paper an alternate and more tractable dynamic programming approach, the optimal feedback synthesis method, is utilized. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated through an explicit guidance scheme for the heating-rate-constrained maneuver of an Aeroassisted Transfer Vehicle (AOTV). In optimal feedback synthesis, a feedback chart is constructed from a family of open-loop extremals, thus ensuring optimality with respect to any initial condition in the family. This paper presents a solution to the AOTV optimal feedback synthesis problem using the Gaussian process spatial prediction method of universal kriging. A closed-form expression for a near-optimal guidance law is derived. Its performance is found to be very promising; initial atmospheric entry errors due to simulated thruster misfiring are seen to be accurately corrected while the algebraic state-inequality constraint is closely respected.

  14. Can acoustic vowel space predict the habitual speech rate of the speaker?

    PubMed

    Tsao, Y-C; Iqbal, K

    2005-01-01

    This study aims to find whether the acoustic vowel space reflect the habitual speaking rate of the speaker. The vowel space is defined as the area of the quadrilateral formed by the four corner vowels (i.e.,/i/,/æ/,/u/,/α) in the F1F2- 2 plane. The study compares the acoustic vowel space in the speech of habitually slow and fast talkers and further analyzes them by gender. In addition to the measurement of vowel duration and midpoint frequencies of F1 and F2, the F1/F2 vowel space areas were measured and compared across speakers. The results indicate substantial overlap in vowel space area functions between slow and fast talkers, though the slow speakers were found to have larger vowel spaces. Furthermore, large variability in vowel space area functions was noted among interspeakers in each group. Both F1 and F2 formant frequencies were found to be gender sensitive in consistence with the existing data. No predictive relation between vowel duration and formant frequencies was observed among speakers. PMID:17282413

  15. Improved Theoretical Predictions of Microlensing Rates for the Detection of Primordial Black Hole Dark Matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cieplak, Agnieszka M.; Griest, Kim

    2013-04-01

    Primordial black holes (PBHs) remain a dark matter (DM) candidate of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. Previously, we proposed a new method of constraining the remaining PBH DM mass range using microlensing of stars monitored by NASA's Kepler mission. We improve this analysis using a more accurate treatment of the population of the Kepler source stars, their variability, and limb darkening. We extend the theoretically detectable PBH DM mass range down to 2 × 10-10 M ⊙, two orders of magnitude below current limits and one-third order of magnitude below our previous estimate. We address how to extract the DM properties, such as mass and spatial distribution, if PBH microlensing events were detected. We correct an error in a well-known finite-source limb-darkening microlensing formula and also examine the effects of varying the light curve cadence on PBH DM detectability. We also introduce an approximation for estimating the predicted rate of detection per star as a function of the star's properties, thus allowing for selection of source stars in future missions, and extend our analysis to planned surveys, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope.

  16. Best-fitting prediction equations for basal metabolic rate: informing obesity interventions in diverse populations.

    PubMed

    Sabounchi, N S; Rahmandad, H; Ammerman, A

    2013-10-01

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) represents the largest component of total energy expenditure and is a major contributor to energy balance. Therefore, accurately estimating BMR is critical for developing rigorous obesity prevention and control strategies. Over the past several decades, numerous BMR formulas have been developed targeted to different population groups. A comprehensive literature search revealed 248 BMR estimation equations developed using diverse ranges of age, gender, race, fat-free mass, fat mass, height, waist-to-hip ratio, body mass index and weight. A subset of 47 studies included enough detail to allow for development of meta-regression equations. Utilizing these studies, meta-equations were developed targeted to 20 specific population groups. This review provides a comprehensive summary of available BMR equations and an estimate of their accuracy. An accompanying online BMR prediction tool (available at http://www.sdl.ise.vt.edu/tutorials.html) was developed to automatically estimate BMR based on the most appropriate equation after user-entry of individual age, race, gender and weight. PMID:23318720

  17. Using the Inflection Points and Rates of Growth and Decay to Predict Levels of Solar Activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2008-01-01

    The ascending and descending inflection points and rates of growth and decay at specific times during the sunspot cycle are examined as predictors for future activity. On average, the ascending inflection point occurs about 1-2 yr after sunspot minimum amplitude (Rm) and the descending inflection point occurs about 6-7 yr after Rm. The ascending inflection point and the inferred slope (including the 12-mo moving average (12-mma) of (Delta)R (the month-to-month change in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number (R)) at the ascending inflection point provide strong indications as to the expected size of the ongoing cycle s sunspot maximum amplitude (RM), while the descending inflection point appears to provide an indication as to the expected length of the ongoing cycle. The value of the 12-mma of (Delta)R at elapsed time T = 27 mo past the epoch of RM (E(RM)) seems to provide a strong indication as to the expected size of Rm for the following cycle. The expected Rm for cycle 24 is 7.6 +/- 4.4 (the 90-percent prediction interval), occurring before September 2008. Evidence is also presented for secular rises in selected cycle-related parameters and for preferential grouping of sunspot cycles by amplitude and/or period.

  18. A comprehensive study on different modelling approaches to predict platelet deposition rates in a perfusion chamber

    PubMed Central

    Pallarès, Jordi; Senan, Oriol; Guimerà, Roger; Vernet, Anton; Aguilar-Mogas, Antoni; Vilahur, Gemma; Badimon, Lina; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Cito, Salvatore

    2015-01-01

    Thrombus formation is a multiscale phenomenon triggered by platelet deposition over a protrombotic surface (eg. a ruptured atherosclerotic plaque). Despite the medical urgency for computational tools that aid in the early diagnosis of thrombotic events, the integration of computational models of thrombus formation at different scales requires a comprehensive understanding of the role and limitation of each modelling approach. We propose three different modelling approaches to predict platelet deposition. Specifically, we consider measurements of platelet deposition under blood flow conditions in a perfusion chamber for different time periods (3, 5, 10, 20 and 30 minutes) at shear rates of 212 s−1, 1390 s−1 and 1690 s−1. Our modelling approaches are: i) a model based on the mass-transfer boundary layer theory; ii) a machine-learning approach; and iii) a phenomenological model. The results indicate that the three approaches on average have median errors of 21%, 20.7% and 14.2%, respectively. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of using an empirical data set as a proxy for a real-patient scenario in which practitioners have accumulated data on a given number of patients and want to obtain a diagnosis for a new patient about whom they only have the current observation of a certain number of variables. PMID:26391513

  19. Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Youn, Jong-Chan; Lee, Hye Sun; Choi, Suk-Won; Han, Seong-Woo; Ryu, Kyu-Hyung; Shin, Eui-Cheol; Kang, Seok-Min

    2016-01-01

    Background Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcome in patients with chronic heart failure. However, its relationship with the pro-inflammatory response and prognostic value in consecutive patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) has not been investigated. Methods We measured HRR and pro-inflammatory markers in 107 prospectively and consecutively enrolled, recovered ADHF patients (71 male, 59 ± 15 years, mean ejection fraction 28.9 ± 14.2%) during the pre-discharge period. The primary endpoint included cardiovascular (CV) events defined as CV mortality, cardiac transplantation, or rehospitalization due to HF aggravation. Results The CV events occurred in 30 (28.0%) patients (5 cardiovascular deaths and 7 cardiac transplantations) during the follow-up period (median 214 days, 11–812 days). When the patients with ADHF were grouped by HRR according to the Contal and O’Quigley’s method, low HRR was shown to be associated with significantly higher levels of serum monokine-induced by gamma interferon (MIG) and poor clinical outcome. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that low HRR was an independent predictor of CV events in both enter method and stepwise method. The addition of HRR to a model significantly increased predictability for CV events across the entire follow-up period. Conclusion Impaired post-exercise HRR is associated with a pro-inflammatory response and independently predicts clinical outcome in patients with ADHF. These findings may explain the relationship between autonomic dysfunction and clinical outcome in terms of the inflammatory response in these patients. PMID:27135610

  20. Prevalence and Predictive Value of Dyspnea Ratings in Hospitalized Patients: Pilot Studies

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, Jennifer P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Dyspnea (breathing discomfort) can be as powerfully aversive as pain, yet is not routinely assessed and documented in the clinical environment. Routine identification and documentation of dyspnea is the first step to improved symptom management and it may also identify patients at risk of negative clinical outcomes. Objective To estimate the prevalence of dyspnea and of dyspnea-associated risk among hospitalized patients. Design Two pilot prospective cohort studies. Setting Single academic medical center. Patients Consecutive patients admitted to four inpatient units: cardiology, hematology/oncology, medicine, and bariatric surgery. Measurements In Study 1, nurses documented current and recent patient-reported dyspnea at the time of the Initial Patient Assessment in 581 inpatients. In Study 2, nurses documented current dyspnea at least once every nursing shift in 367 patients. We describe the prevalence of burdensome dyspnea, and compare it to pain. We also compared dyspnea ratings with a composite of adverse outcomes: 1) receipt of care from the hospital’s rapid response system, 2) transfer to the intensive care unit, or 3) death in hospital. We defined burdensome dyspnea as a rating of 4 or more on a 10-point scale. Results Prevalence of burdensome current dyspnea upon admission (Study 1) was 13% (77 of 581, 95% CI 11%-16%). Prevalence of burdensome dyspnea at some time during the hospitalization (Study 2) was 16% (57 of 367, 95% CI 12%-20%). Dyspnea was associated with higher odds of a negative outcome. Conclusions In two pilot studies, we identified a significant symptom burden of dyspnea in hospitalized patients. Patients reporting dyspnea may benefit from a more careful focus on symptom management and may represent a population at greater risk for negative outcomes. PMID:27070144

  1. Electron flow to oxygen in higher plants and algae: rates and control of direct photoreduction (Mehler reaction) and rubisco oxygenase.

    PubMed

    Badger, M R; von Caemmerer, S; Ruuska, S; Nakano, H

    2000-10-29

    Linear electron transport in chloroplasts produces a number of reduced components associated with photosystem I (PS I) that may subsequently participate in reactions that reduce O2. The two primary reactions that have been extensively studied are: first, the direct reduction of O2 to superoxide by reduced donors associated with PS I (the Mehler reaction), and second, the rubisco oxygenase (ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase oxygenase EC 4.1.1.39) reaction and associated peroxisomal and mitochondrial reactions of the photorespiratory pathway. This paper reviews a number of recent and past studies with higher plants, algae and cyanobacteria that have attempted to quantify O2 fluxes under various conditions and their contributions to a number of roles, including photon energy dissipation. In C3 and Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants, a Mehler O2 uptake reaction is unlikely to support a significant flow of electron transport (probably less than 10%). In addition, if it were present it would appear to scale with photosynthetic carbon oxidation cycle (PCO) and photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle (PCR) activity This is supported by studies with antisense tobacco plants with reduced rubisco at low and high temperatures and high light, as well as studies with potatoes, grapes and madrone during water stress. The lack of significant Mehler in these plants directly argues for a strong control of Mehler reaction in the absence of ATP consumption by the PCR and PCO cycles. The difference between C3 and C4 plants is primarily that the level of light-dependent O2 uptake is generally much lower in C4 plants and is relatively insensitive to the external CO2 concentration. Such a major difference is readily attributed to the operation of the C4 CO2 concentrating mechanism. Algae show a range of light-dependent O2 uptake rates, similar to C4 plants. As in C4 plants, the O2 uptake appears to be largely insensitive to CO2, even in species that lack a CO2 concentrating

  2. Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on the Aboveground Carbon Sequestration Rate of a Temperate Forest in Northeastern China

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Jun; Hu, Yuanman; Bu, Rencang; Chang, Yu; Deng, Huawei; Qin, Qin

    2014-01-01

    The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species. PMID:24763409

  3. Predicting Radiosensitivity with Gamma-H2AX Foci Assay after Single High-Dose-Rate and Pulsed Dose-Rate Ionizing Irradiation.

    PubMed

    van Oorschot, Bregje; Hovingh, Suzanne; Dekker, Annelot; Stalpers, Lukas J; Franken, Nicolaas A P

    2016-02-01

    Gamma-H2AX foci detection is the standard method to quantify DNA double-strand break (DSB) induction and repair. In this study, we investigated the induction and decay of γ-H2AX foci of different tumor cell lines and fibroblasts with known mutations in DNA damage repair genes, including ATM, LigIV, DNA-PKcs, Rad51 and Rad54. A radiation dose of 2.4 Gy was used for either an acute single high-dose-rate (sHDR) exposure or a pulsed dose-rate (pDR) exposure over 24 h. The number of γ-H2AX foci was determined at 30 min and 24 h after sHDR irradiation and directly after pDR irradiation. In a similar manner, γ-H2AX foci were also examined in lymphocytes of patients with differences in normal tissue toxicity after a total radiation dose of 1 Gy. In an initial count of the number of foci 30 min after sHDR irradiation, repair-proficient cell types could not be distinguished from repair-deficient cell types. However at 24 h postirradiation, while we observed a large decrease in foci numbers in NHEJ-proficient cells, the amount of γ-H2AX foci in cell types with mutated NHEJ repair remained at high levels. Except for IRS-1SF cells, HR-deficient cell types eventually did show a moderate decrease in foci number over time, albeit to a lesser extent than their corresponding parentals or repair-proficient control cells. In addition, analysis of γ-H2AX foci after sHDR exposure of patients with different sensitivity status clearly showed individual differences in radiation response. Radiosensitive patients could be distinguished from the more radioresistant patients with γ-H2AX foci decay ratios (initial number of foci divided by residual number of foci). Significantly higher decay ratios were observed in patients without toxicities, indicating more proficient repair compared to patients with radiation-induced side effects. After pDR irradiation, no consistent correlation could be found between foci number and radiosensitivity. In conclusion, γ-H2AX formation is a rapid and

  4. Overweight and obesity predict better overall survival rates in cancer patients with distant metastases.

    PubMed

    Tsang, Ngan Ming; Pai, Ping Ching; Chuang, Chi Cheng; Chuang, Wen Ching; Tseng, Chen Kan; Chang, Kai Ping; Yen, Tzu Chen; Lin, Jen Der; Chang, Joseph Tung Chieh

    2016-04-01

    Recent studies conducted in patients with chronic diseases have reported an inverse association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality. However, the question as to whether BMI may predict prognosis in patients with metastatic cancer remains open. We therefore designed the current retrospective study to investigate the potential association between BMI and overall survival (OS) in patients with distant metastases (DM) and a favorable performance status. Between 2000 and 2012, a total of 4010 cancer patients with DM who required radiotherapy (RT) and had their BMI measured at the initiation of RT were identified. The relation between BMI and OS was examined by univariate and multivariable analysis. The median OS time was 3.23 months (range: 0.1-122.17) for underweight patients, 6.08 months (range: 0.03-149.46) for normal-weight patients, 7.99 months (range: 0.07-158.01) for overweight patients, and 12.49 months (range, 0.2-164.1) for obese patients (log-rank: P < 0.001). Compared with normal-weight patients, both obese (HR = 0.676; 95% P < 0.001) and overweight individuals (HR = 0.84; P < 0.001) had a reduced risk of all-cause mortality in multivariable analysis. Conversely, underweight patients had a significantly higher risk of death from all causes (HR = 1.41; P < 0.001). Overweight and obesity are independent predictors of better OS in metastatic patients with a good performance status. Increased BMI may play a role to identify metastatic patients with superior survival outcome and exhibit a potential to encourage aggressive management in those patients even with metastases. PMID:26811258

  5. Rate-ratio asymptotic analysis of methane-air diffusion-flame structure for predicting production of oxides of nitrogen

    SciTech Connect

    Hewson, J.C.; Williams, F.A.

    1999-05-01

    Production rates of oxides of nitrogen in laminar methane-air diffusion flames are addressed, with thermal, prompt, and nitrous oxide mechanisms taken into account, as well as consumption processes collectively termed reburn. For this purpose, it is necessary to extend the well-known four-step flame-chemistry description to six steps, with acetylene taken out of steady-state and one-step production of nitric oxide included. Emission indices are calculated as functions of the rate of scalar dissipation at the stoichiometric mixture fraction for near-atmospheric pressures and shown to be in reasonable agreement with results obtained from numerical integrations. The various mechanisms of NO{sub x} production and consumption are verified to be strongly dependent on the flame temperature and on superequilibrium concentrations of radicals, both fuel-derived and from hydrogen-oxygen chemistry; the flame-structure analysis was extended to provide sufficient accuracy in the prediction of these quantities. It was found that for flames in near-normal ambient atmospheres, the prompt mechanism usually is most important. For longer residence times, and especially for ambient pressures and temperatures above standard, the thermal mechanism was found to increase in importance, but this increase was calculated to be offset almost entirely by NO consumption through reburn reactions. Conditions that favor reburn were observed to be those where the ratio of radical concentrations to NO concentrations is small. Longer residence times and higher pressures were demonstrated to lead both to more complete heat release and to smaller superequilibrium radical concentrations whence the correspondence between thermal production and reburn. The nitrous oxide mechanism was found to be generally less important for the conditions considered here.

  6. Significance of vapor phase chemical reactions on CVD rates predicted by chemically frozen and local thermochemical equilibrium boundary layer theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gokoglu, Suleyman A.

    1988-01-01

    This paper investigates the role played by vapor-phase chemical reactions on CVD rates by comparing the results of two extreme theories developed to predict CVD mass transport rates in the absence of interfacial kinetic barrier: one based on chemically frozen boundary layer and the other based on local thermochemical equilibrium. Both theories consider laminar convective-diffusion boundary layers at high Reynolds numbers and include thermal (Soret) diffusion and variable property effects. As an example, Na2SO4 deposition was studied. It was found that gas phase reactions have no important role on Na2SO4 deposition rates and on the predictions of the theories. The implications of the predictions of the two theories to other CVD systems are discussed.

  7. Prediction of fatigue crack propagation rate on the interface of wood-FRP using the artificial neural network (ANN)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Liang; Jia, Junhui; Liu, Yongjun

    2008-11-01

    Crack propagation rate of the interface of fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) bonded to red maple wood, is analyzed and predicted using an artificial neural network (ANN) method. The performance of Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Modular Neural Network (MNN) is compared to obtain an optimal ANN model to predict the crack propagation rate. The effect of various parameters of the MNN and MLP models are investigated. The number of input vectors of MLP and MNN models is studied to see if this will affect the training and predicting performance by the scatter of input vectors. At last, a new method called sensitivity analysis is adopted to explore the influenced proportion of the input vectors and the effect of load ratio, frequency, et al., on the crack propagation rate.

  8. Do More Online Instructional Ratings Lead to Better Prediction of Instructor Quality?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanders, Shane; Walia, Bhavneet; Potter, Joel; Linna, Kenneth W.

    2011-01-01

    Online instructional ratings are taken by many with a grain of salt. This study analyzes the ability of said ratings to estimate the official (university-administered) instructional ratings of the same respective university instructors. Given self-selection among raters, we further test whether more online ratings of instructors lead to better…

  9. Prediction of Heart Rates on a Ropes Course from Simple Physical Measures. Research Update.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Priest, Simon; Montelpare, William

    1995-01-01

    This study identified the highest heart rates attained on a ropes course for a corporate population; examined relationships between highest heart rate and other physical measures (basal heart rate, blood pressure, height, weight, body girths, cholesterol, maximum number of pushups, and heart rate after brisk walk); and developed an equation for…

  10. New Directions for Higher Education: Q&A with Ed Dept's Studley on College Ratings, Feds

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DiSalvio, Philip

    2014-01-01

    In April 2013, "NEJHE" launched its "New Directions for Higher Education" series to examine emerging issues, trends and ideas that have an impact on higher education policies, programs, and practices. In this installment, Philip DiSalvio interviews U.S. Department of Education Deputy Under Secretary Jamienne S. Studley, who…

  11. Relationship between obesity, negative affect and basal heart rate in predicting heart rate reactivity to psychological stress among adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Park, Andres E.; Huynh, Pauline; Schell, Anne M.; Baker, Laura A.

    2015-01-01

    Reduced cardiovascular responses to psychological stressors have been found to be associated with both obesity and negative affect in adults, but have been less well studied in children and adolescent populations. These findings have most often been interpreted as reflecting reduced sympathetic nervous system response, perhaps associated with heightened baseline sympathetic activation among the obese and those manifesting negative affect. However, obesity and negative affect may themselves be correlated, raising the question of whether they both independently affect cardiovascular reactivity. The present study thus examined the separate effects of obesity and negative affect on both cardiovascular and skin conductance responses to stress (e.g., during a serial subtraction math task) in adolescents, while controlling for baseline levels of autonomic activity during rest. Both obesity and negative affect had independent and negative associations with cardiovascular reactivity, such that reduced stress responses were apparent for obese adolescents and those with high levels of negative affect. In contrast, neither obesity nor negative affect was related to skin conductance responses to stress, implicating specifically noradrenergic mechanisms rather than sympathetic mechanisms generally as being deficient. Moreover, baseline heart rate was unrelated to obesity in this sample, which suggests that heightened baseline of sympathetic activity is not necessary for the reduced cardiovascular reactivity to stress. PMID:26049136

  12. Effect of Load Rate on Tensile Strength of Various CFCCs at Elevated Temperatures: An Approach to Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2001-01-01

    Strength of three continuous fiber-reinforced ceramic composites, including SiC/CAS-11, SiC/MAS-5 and SiC/SiC, was determined as a function of test rate in air at 1100 - 1200 C. All three composite materials exhibited a strong dependency of strength on test rate, similar to the behavior observed in many advanced monolithic ceramics at elevated temperatures. The application of the preloading technique as well as the prediction of life from one loading configuration (constant stress-rate) to another (constant stress loading) suggested that the overall macroscopic failure mechanism of the composites would be the one governed by a power-law tyw of damage evolution/accumulation, analogous to slow crack growth commonly observed in advanced monolithic ceramics. It was further found that constant stress-rate testing could be used as an alternative to life prediction test methodology even for the composite materials at least for the short range of lifetime.

  13. Dehumidification: Prediction of Condensate Flow Rate for Plate-Fin Tube Heat Exchangers Using the Latent j Factor

    SciTech Connect

    Baxter, V.D.; Chen, D.T.; Conklin, J.C.

    1999-03-15

    Condensate flow rate is an important factor in designing dehumidifiers or evaporators. In this paper, the latentj fimtor is used to analyze the dehumidification performance of two plate-fin tube heat exchangers. This latent j factor, analogous to the total j factor, is a flmction of the mass transfa coefllcient, the volumetric air flow rate, and the Schmidt number. This latent j factor did predict condensate flow rate more directly and accurately than any other sensiblej factor method. The Iatentj factor has been used in the present study because the sensible j factor correlations presented in the literature failed to predict the condensate flow rate at high Reynolds numbers. Results show that the latent j i%ctor em be simply correlated as a fhnction of the Reynolds number based on the tube outside diameter and number of rows of the heat exchanger.

  14. A framework for establishing predictive relationships between specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence abundances and biotransformation rates.

    PubMed

    Helbling, Damian E; Johnson, David R; Lee, Tae Kwon; Scheidegger, Andreas; Fenner, Kathrin

    2015-03-01

    The rates at which wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) microbial communities biotransform specific substrates can differ by orders of magnitude among WWTP communities. Differences in taxonomic compositions among WWTP communities may predict differences in the rates of some types of biotransformations. In this work, we present a novel framework for establishing predictive relationships between specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence abundances and biotransformation rates. We selected ten WWTPs with substantial variation in their environmental and operational metrics and measured the in situ ammonia biotransformation rate constants in nine of them. We isolated total RNA from samples from each WWTP and analyzed 16S rRNA sequence reads. We then developed multivariate models between the measured abundances of specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence reads and the ammonia biotransformation rate constants. We constructed model scenarios that systematically explored the effects of model regularization, model linearity and non-linearity, and aggregation of 16S rRNA sequences into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) as a function of sequence dissimilarity threshold (SDT). A large percentage (greater than 80%) of model scenarios resulted in well-performing and significant models at intermediate SDTs of 0.13-0.14 and 0.26. The 16S rRNA sequences consistently selected into the well-performing and significant models at those SDTs were classified as Nitrosomonas and Nitrospira groups. We then extend the framework by applying it to the biotransformation rate constants of ten micropollutants measured in batch reactors seeded with the ten WWTP communities. We identified phylogenetic groups that were robustly selected into all well-performing and significant models constructed with biotransformation rates of isoproturon, propachlor, ranitidine, and venlafaxine. These phylogenetic groups can be used as predictive biomarkers of WWTP microbial community activity towards these specific

  15. Private and Social Rates of Return to Higher Education in Science and Technology in a Caribbean Economy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bourne, Compton; Dass, Anand

    2003-01-01

    Estimates private and social rates of return for university science and technology graduates in Trinidad and Tobago. Makes comparisons with other fields of study such as agriculture, natural sciences, engineering, and humanities. Concludes that rates of return are inconsistent with the allocative preferences of policymakers. (Authors/PKP)

  16. Accounting for Risk of Non-Completion in Private and Social Rates of Return to Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toutkoushian, Robert K.; Shafiq, M. Najeeb; Trivette, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Conventional studies of the private and social rates of return to a Bachelor's degree focus on the earnings difference between Bachelor degree holders and high school graduates, and find that there are large rates of return for degree recipients. The estimates in these studies, however, do not take into account the risk of not completing a degree.…

  17. Higher Dropout Rate in Non-Native Patients than in Native Patients in Rehabilitation in The Netherlands

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sloots, Maurits; Scheppers, Emmanuel F.; van de Weg, Frans B.; Dekker, Jos H.; Bartels, Edien A.; Geertzen, Jan H.; Dekker, Joost

    2009-01-01

    Dropout from a rehabilitation programme often occurs in patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain of non-native origin. However, the exact dropout rate is not known. The objective of this study was to determine the difference in dropout rate between native and non-native patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain participating in a…

  18. Dynamic analysis of heart rate may predict subsequent ventricular tachycardia after myocardial infarction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Makikallio, T. H.; Seppanen, T.; Airaksinen, K. E.; Koistinen, J.; Tulppo, M. P.; Peng, C. K.; Goldberger, A. L.; Huikuri, H. V.

    1997-01-01

    Dynamics analysis of RR interval behavior and traditional measures of heart rate variability were compared between postinfarction patients with and without vulnerability to ventricular tachyarrhythmias in a case-control study. Short-term fractal correlation of heart rate dynamics was better than traditional measures of heart rate variability in differentiating patients with and without life-threatening arrhythmias.

  19. The Use of High School Faculty Ratings to Predict USMA Fourth Class Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLaughlin, Gerald W.

    The potential use of High School Faculty Ratings for admission purposes is investigated. The ratings include the evaluations of a candidate on 10 traits and three overall characteristics. The rating forms are given to a mathematics, English, and physical education teacher, a counselor or high school principal, and one other faculty member by the…

  20. Mechanisms of solvent evaporation encapsulation processes: prediction of solvent evaporation rate.

    PubMed

    Wang, J; Schwendeman, S P

    1999-10-01

    The mechanism of organic solvent evaporation during microencapsulation and its role during microsphere hardening has been investigated. Evaporation and encapsulation studies were carried out in a jacketed beaker, filled with aqueous hardening solution, which was maintained at constant temperature and constant stirring rate in the turbulent regime. Evaporation of dissolved methylene chloride (MC), ethyl acetate (EA), and acetonitrile (ACN) was examined by the decline in organic solvent concentration in the hardening bath, which was monitored by gas chromatography. The evaporation from the bath followed first-order kinetics under dilute conditions (e.g., MC < 3 mg/mL), yielding an overall permeability coefficient, P. The value of P was theoretically related to the Kolmogorov length-scale of turbulence under conditions that favor liquid-side transport control. According to theory, factors that favored liquid-phase control (as opposed to gas-phase control) were those that favored a high Henry's law constant [i.e., elevated temperature near the normal boiling point (bp) of the organic solvent] and properties of the dissolved organic solvent (i.e., low normal bp and low aqueous solubility). These theoretical hypotheses were confirmed by (1) correlating the experimentally determined P with process variables raised to the appropriate power according to theory, r(2) = 0.95 (i.e., P approximately rotational speed, omega(3/4), impeller diameter, d (5/4), volume of hardening bath, V(-1/4), and the product of kinematic viscosity and diffusion coefficient, nu(-5/12)D (2/3)), and (2) illustrating that at constant temperature, the tendency of the evaporation system to obey liquid-side transport control follows the same order of increasing Henry's law constant (i.e., MC > EA > ACN). To establish the relationship of evaporation with microsphere hardening, the decline in MC concentration was determined in both the continuous and dispersed polymer phases during microencapsulation. By

  1. Heat transfer performance evaluation and prediction of correlation for turbulent flow through a tube with helical tape inserts at higher Reynolds number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhuiya, Muhammad Mostafa Kamal; Chowdhury, M. S. U.; Ahamed, J. U.; Azad, A. K.

    2016-06-01

    An experimental investigation was accomplished to evaluate the performance of heat transfer for turbulent flow through a tube with helical tape inserts. The mild steel helical tape inserts with different twist ratios of 1.88, 3.13, 4.69, 6.41 and 7.81 were used in the flow field. Heat transfer and pressure drop data were prompted for a wide range of Reynolds number from 7200 to 50,000. The experimental results indicated that the Nusselt number, friction factor and thermal performance factor were increased with decreasing twist ratio. The results also showed that helical tape inserts of different geometries in a circular tube enhanced the heat transfer rate significantly with corresponding increase in friction factor. Nusselt number and friction factor for the tube with inserts were found to be increased up to 260 and 285 %, respectively, than those over the plain tube values at the comparable Reynolds number. The heat transfer performance was evaluated and found to be 44 % higher compared to the plain tube based on the constant blower power. Finally, new correlations were proposed for the twist ratios ranging from 1.88 to 7.81 for predicting the heat transfer, friction factor and thermal performance factor for turbulent flow through a circular tube fitted with helical tape inserts.

  2. Effect of higher harmonic control on helicopter rotor blade-vortex interaction noise: Prediction and initial validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beaumier, P.; Prieur, J.; Rahier, G.; Spiegel, P.; Demargne, A.; Tung, C.; Gallman, J. M.; Yu, Y. H.; Kube, R.; Vanderwall, B. G.

    1995-01-01

    The paper presents a status of theoretical tools of AFDD, DLR, NASA and ONERA for prediction of the effect of HHC on helicopter main rotor BVI noise. Aeroacoustic predictions from the four research centers, concerning a wind tunnel simulation of a typical descent flight case without and with HHC are presented and compared. The results include blade deformation, geometry of interacting vortices, sectional loads and noise. Acoustic predictions are compared to experimental data. An analysis of the results provides a first insight of the mechanisms by which HHC may affect BVI noise.

  3. Merger Rates of Double Neutron Stars and Stellar Origin Black Holes: The Impact of Initial Conditions on Binary Evolution Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Mink, S. E.; Belczynski, K.

    2015-11-01

    The initial mass function (IMF), binary fraction, and distributions of binary parameters (mass ratios, separations, and eccentricities) are indispensable inputs for simulations of stellar populations. It is often claimed that these are poorly constrained, significantly affecting evolutionary predictions. Recently, dedicated observing campaigns have provided new constraints on the initial conditions for massive stars. Findings include a larger close binary fraction and a stronger preference for very tight systems. We investigate the impact on the predicted merger rates of neutron stars and black holes. Despite the changes with previous assumptions, we only find an increase of less than a factor of 2 (insignificant compared with evolutionary uncertainties of typically a factor of 10–100). We further show that the uncertainties in the new initial binary properties do not significantly affect (within a factor of 2) our predictions of double compact object merger rates. An exception is the uncertainty in IMF (variations by a factor of 6 up and down). No significant changes in the distributions of final component masses, mass ratios, chirp masses, and delay times are found. We conclude that the predictions are, for practical purposes, robust against uncertainties in the initial conditions concerning binary parameters, with the exception of the IMF. This eliminates an important layer of the many uncertain assumptions affecting the predictions of merger detection rates with the gravitational wave detectors aLIGO/aVirgo.

  4. Expanding the range for predicting critical flow rates of gas wells producing from normally pressured waterdrive reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Upchurch, E.R. )

    1989-08-01

    The critical flow rate of a gas well is the minimum flow rate required to prevent accumulation of liquids in the tubing. Theoretical models currently available for estimating critical flow rates are restricted to wells with water/gas ratios less than 150bbl/MMcf (0.84 X 10/sup -3/ m/sup 3//m/sup 3/). For wells producing at higher water/gas ratios from normally pressured waterdrive reservoirs, a method of estimating critical flow rates is derived through use of an empirical multiphase-flow correlation.

  5. Predicting the Gap: Perceptual Congruence between American Principals and Their Teachers' Ratings of Leadership Effectiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goff, Peter T; Goldring, Ellen; Bickman, Leonard

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the extent to which principals' self-ratings of leadership effectiveness coincide with their teachers' perceptions of their leadership effectiveness. Furthermore, we explore several characteristics of teachers and principals in an attempt to identify the factors that may predict congruence in…

  6. Interest level in 2-year-olds with autism spectrum disorder predicts rate of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition.

    PubMed

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2015-11-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2 years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition to the age of 3 years. A total of 70 toddlers with autism spectrum disorder, mean age of 21.9 months, were scored using Interest Level Scoring for Autism, quantifying toddlers' interest in toys, social routines, and activities that could serve as reinforcers in an intervention. Adaptive level and mental age were measured concurrently (Time 1) and again after a mean of 16.3 months of treatment (Time 2). Interest Level Scoring for Autism score, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule score, adaptive age equivalent, verbal and nonverbal mental age, and intensity of intervention were entered into regression models to predict rates of skill acquisition. Interest level at Time 1 predicted subsequent acquisition rate of adaptive skills (R(2) = 0.36) and verbal mental age (R(2) = 0.30), above and beyond the effects of Time 1 verbal and nonverbal mental ages and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule scores. Interest level at Time 1 also contributed (R(2) = 0.30), with treatment intensity, to variance in development of nonverbal mental age. PMID:25398893

  7. The Prediction of Teacher Morale Using the Supervisory Conference Rating, the Zones of Indifference Instrument and Selected Personal Variables.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackbourn, Joe M.; Wilkes, Sam T.

    A prediction equation for teacher morale was developed from the responses of 236 teachers in a large school system in Mississippi. The Supervisory Conference Rating (SCR) was used to measure teachers' perceptions of the supervisory conference following observation by the principal. The Zones of Indifference of these teachers were measured with the…

  8. The (B)link Between Creativity and Dopamine: Spontaneous Eye Blink Rates Predict and Dissociate Divergent and Convergent Thinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermahini, Soghra Akbari; Hommel, Bernhard

    2010-01-01

    Human creativity has been claimed to rely on the neurotransmitter dopamine, but evidence is still sparse. We studied whether individual performance (N=117) in divergent thinking (alternative uses task) and convergent thinking (remote association task) can be predicted by the individual spontaneous eye blink rate (EBR), a clinical marker of…

  9. Attendance Rates in a Workplace Predict Subsequent Outcome of Employment-Based Reinforcement of Cocaine Abstinence in Methadone Patients

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donlin, Wendy D.; Knealing, Todd W.; Needham, Mick; Wong, Conrad J.; Silverman, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    This study assessed whether attendance rates in a workplace predicted subsequent outcome of employment-based reinforcement of cocaine abstinence. Unemployed adults in Baltimore methadone programs who used cocaine (N = 111) could work in a workplace for 4 hr every weekday and earn $10.00 per hour in vouchers for 26 weeks. During an induction…

  10. Event rate and reaction time performance in ADHD: Testing predictions from the state regulation deficit hypothesis using an ex-Gaussian model.

    PubMed

    Metin, Baris; Wiersema, Jan R; Verguts, Tom; Gasthuys, Roos; van Der Meere, Jacob J; Roeyers, Herbert; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

    2016-01-01

    According to the state regulation deficit (SRD) account, ADHD is associated with a problem using effort to maintain an optimal activation state under demanding task settings such as very fast or very slow event rates. This leads to a prediction of disrupted performance at event rate extremes reflected in higher Gaussian response variability that is a putative marker of activation during motor preparation. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis using ex-Gaussian modeling, which distinguishes Gaussian from non-Gaussian variability. Twenty-five children with ADHD and 29 typically developing controls performed a simple Go/No-Go task under four different event-rate conditions. There was an accentuated quadratic relationship between event rate and Gaussian variability in the ADHD group compared to the controls. The children with ADHD had greater Gaussian variability at very fast and very slow event rates but not at moderate event rates. The results provide evidence for the SRD account of ADHD. However, given that this effect did not explain all group differences (some of which were independent of event rate) other cognitive and/or motivational processes are also likely implicated in ADHD performance deficits. PMID:26835532

  11. Chimpanzee choice rates in competitive games match equilibrium game theory predictions

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Christopher Flynn; Bhui, Rahul; Bossaerts, Peter; Matsuzawa, Tetsuro; Camerer, Colin

    2014-01-01

    The capacity for strategic thinking about the payoff-relevant actions of conspecifics is not well understood across species. We use game theory to make predictions about choices and temporal dynamics in three abstract competitive situations with chimpanzee participants. Frequencies of chimpanzee choices are extremely close to equilibrium (accurate-guessing) predictions, and shift as payoffs change, just as equilibrium theory predicts. The chimpanzee choices are also closer to the equilibrium prediction, and more responsive to past history and payoff changes, than two samples of human choices from experiments in which humans were also initially uninformed about opponent payoffs and could not communicate verbally. The results are consistent with a tentative interpretation of game theory as explaining evolved behavior, with the additional hypothesis that chimpanzees may retain or practice a specialized capacity to adjust strategy choice during competition to perform at least as well as, or better than, humans have. PMID:24901997

  12. Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2016-02-01

    Multiresolution analysis techniques including continuous wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, and variational mode decomposition are tested in the context of interest rate next-day variation prediction. In particular, multiresolution analysis techniques are used to decompose interest rate actual variation and feedforward neural network for training and prediction. Particle swarm optimization technique is adopted to optimize its initial weights. For comparison purpose, autoregressive moving average model, random walk process and the naive model are used as main reference models. In order to show the feasibility of the presented hybrid models that combine multiresolution analysis techniques and feedforward neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization, we used a set of six illustrative interest rates; including Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, 3-Month, 6-Month and 1-Year treasury bills, and effective federal fund rate. The forecasting results show that all multiresolution-based prediction systems outperform the conventional reference models on the criteria of mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, and root mean-squared error. Therefore, it is advantageous to adopt hybrid multiresolution techniques and soft computing models to forecast interest rate daily variations as they provide good forecasting performance.

  13. Prediction of pilot opinion ratings using an optimal pilot model. [of aircraft handling qualities in multiaxis tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hess, R. A.

    1977-01-01

    A brief review of some of the more pertinent applications of analytical pilot models to the prediction of aircraft handling qualities is undertaken. The relative ease with which multiloop piloting tasks can be modeled via the optimal control formulation makes the use of optimal pilot models particularly attractive for handling qualities research. To this end, a rating hypothesis is introduced which relates the numerical pilot opinion rating assigned to a particular vehicle and task to the numerical value of the index of performance resulting from an optimal pilot modeling procedure as applied to that vehicle and task. This hypothesis is tested using data from piloted simulations and is shown to be reasonable. An example concerning a helicopter landing approach is introduced to outline the predictive capability of the rating hypothesis in multiaxis piloting tasks.

  14. New predictive equations for estimation of basal metabolic rates of adolescents: tropics versus temperate.

    PubMed

    Noor, M I; Poh, B K; Zawiah, H; Henry, C J K

    2003-01-01

    The energy and nutritional requirements of adolescents are influenced primarily by the growth spurt that occurs at puberty, and also by the need to maintain adequate levels of physical activity. Predictions of BMR have gained attention since the publication of the FAO/WHO/UNU (1985) expert consultation report, which adopted the principle of relying on energy expenditure rather than energy intake to derive requirement of individuals. While the report predicts BMR accurately in many individuals from temperate climate, they are said to be less accurate in predicting BMR in populations living in the tropics. The collation of worldwide data on basal metabolism indicated that, relative to adults, there was a paucity of data in other age groups including the adolescents. Although several BMR studies among children had been reported in the 90's, the data in normal weight children are almost exclusively from small control groups in obesity studies. Furthermore, we know little as to whether BMR of children differs in differing climatic conditions. This paper presents predictive equations for estimating BMR from a two-centre study, Bangi (Malaysia) and Oxford (UK) and to compare the results with the currently used predictive equations. PMID:15806886

  15. Words That Fascinate the Listener: Predicting Affective Ratings of On-Line Lectures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weninger, Felix; Staudt, Pascal; Schuller, Björn

    2013-01-01

    In a large scale study on 843 transcripts of Technology, Entertainment and Design (TED) talks, the authors address the relation between word usage and categorical affective ratings of lectures by a large group of internet users. Users rated the lectures by assigning one or more predefined tags which relate to the affective state evoked in the…

  16. Predicting Offender-Generated Exchange Rates: Implications for a Theory of Sentence Severity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    May, David C.; Wood, Peter B.; Mooney, Jennifer L.; Minor, Kevin I.

    2005-01-01

    We solicited offender-generated exchange rates between prison and several noncustodial sanctions from a sample of 588 offenders currently serving community-based punishments. We then regressed these exchange rates on demographic, attitudinal, and correctional experience indicators. Males, Blacks, older offenders, offenders with prison experience,…

  17. USE OF GEOSTATISTICS TO PREDICT VIRUS DECAY RATES FOR DETERMINATION OF SEPTIC TANK SETBACK DISTANCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water samples were collected from 71 public drinking-water supply wells in the Tucson, Arizona, basin. Virus decay rates in the water samples were determined with MS-2 coliphage as a model virus. The correlations between the virus decay rates and the sample locations were shown b...

  18. Prediction of heart rate response to conclusion of the spontaneous breathing trial by fluctuation dissipation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Man; Niestemski, Liang Ren; Prevost, Robert; McRae, Michael; Cholleti, Sharath; Najarro, Gabriel; Buchman, Timothy G.; Deem, Michael W.

    2013-02-01

    The non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem is applied to predict how critically ill patients respond to treatment, based upon data currently collected by standard hospital monitoring devices. This framework is demonstrated on a common procedure in critical care: the spontaneous breathing trial. It is shown that the responses of groups of similar patients to the spontaneous breathing trial can be predicted by the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation approach. This mathematical framework, when fully formed and applied to other clinical interventions, may serve as part of the basis for personalized critical care.

  19. A higher illuminance induces alertness even during office hours: findings on subjective measures, task performance and heart rate measures.

    PubMed

    Smolders, K C H J; de Kort, Y A W; Cluitmans, P J M

    2012-08-20

    Nocturnal white light exposure has shown marked results on subjective and objective indicators of alertness, vitality and mood, yet effects of white light during daytime and under usual office work conditions have not been investigated extensively. The current study employed a mixed-group design (N=32), testing effects of two illuminance levels (200lx or 1000lx at eye level, 4000K) during one hour of morning versus afternoon exposure. In four repeated blocks, subjective reports, objective performance and physiological arousal were measured. Results showed effects of illuminance on subjective alertness and vitality, sustained attention in tasks, and heart rate and heart rate variability. Participants felt less sleepy and more energetic in the high versus the low lighting condition, had shorter reaction times on the psychomotor vigilance task and increased physiological arousal. Effects of illuminance on the subjective measures, as well as those on heart rate were not dependent on time of day or duration of exposure. Performance effects were most pronounced in the morning sessions and towards the end of the one-hour exposure period. The effect on heart rate variability was also most pronounced at the end of the one-hour exposure. The results demonstrate that even under normal, i.e., neither sleep nor light deprived conditions, more intense light can improve feelings of alertness and vitality, as well as objective performance and physiological arousal. PMID:22564492

  20. Prediction of in-bed tube erosion rates in fluidized beds. Topical report, January 1992--June 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Kono, Hisoshi

    1992-10-01

    The objective of this research is to predict the erosion rates of in-bed tubes of specific materials in fluidized beds by using a novel approach that we have recently developed. This technique assesses the erosion rates of in-bed tubes by considering two key factors: the peaks of the transient forces of solid particles and the characteristic erosion properties of tube materials concerned. We developed a simple characterization method to assess the erosion rates of in-bed tubes. With this method, an erosion index considering the surface area, weight loss of in-bed tubes, and the operating time, was used. A systematic study was carried out in a 411 rectangular fluidized bed to study the relationship between erosion rate and maximum transient forces of solid particles in fluidized beds. Three different kinds of metal tubes, with well defined tensile strength (at) and elasticity modulus (E), were used. They are copper, aluminum and stainless steel. By considering the tensile strength and elasticity modulus, together with the peaks of transient forces of solid particles, a characteristic erosion function was introduced. This characteristic function was found to have a good correlation with the erosion rate. Thus, the prediction of in-bed tube erosion rates was achieved, when the peaks of transient forces of solid particles and tube material`s characteristic properties are known.

  1. Toward a New Predictive Model of Student Retention in Higher Education: An Application of Classical Sociological Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerby, Molly B.

    2015-01-01

    Theoretical models designed to predict whether students will persist or not have been valuable tools for retention efforts relative to the creation of services in academic and student affairs. Some of the early models attempted to explain and measure factors in the "college dropout process." For example, in his seminal work, Tinto…

  2. Conventional heart rate variability analysis of ambulatory electrocardiographic recordings fails to predict imminent ventricular fibrillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vybiral, T.; Glaeser, D. H.; Goldberger, A. L.; Rigney, D. R.; Hess, K. R.; Mietus, J.; Skinner, J. E.; Francis, M.; Pratt, C. M.

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVES. The purpose of this report was to study heart rate variability in Holter recordings of patients who experienced ventricular fibrillation during the recording. BACKGROUND. Decreased heart rate variability is recognized as a long-term predictor of overall and arrhythmic death after myocardial infarction. It was therefore postulated that heart rate variability would be lowest when measured immediately before ventricular fibrillation. METHODS. Conventional indexes of heart rate variability were calculated from Holter recordings of 24 patients with structural heart disease who had ventricular fibrillation during monitoring. The control group consisted of 19 patients with coronary artery disease, of comparable age and left ventricular ejection fraction, who had nonsustained ventricular tachycardia but no ventricular fibrillation. RESULTS. Heart rate variability did not differ between the two groups, and no consistent trends in heart rate variability were observed before ventricular fibrillation occurred. CONCLUSIONS. Although conventional heart rate variability is an independent long-term predictor of adverse outcome after myocardial infarction, its clinical utility as a short-term predictor of life-threatening arrhythmias remains to be elucidated.

  3. Multiscale Entropy of the Heart Rate Variability for the Prediction of an Ischemic Stroke in Patients with Permanent Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Hayano, Junichiro; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu; Inamasu, Joji; Yamamoto, Mayumi; Ichikawa, Tomohide; Sobue, Yoshihiro; Harada, Masehide; Ozaki, Yukio

    2015-01-01

    Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a significant risk factor for ischemic strokes, and making a robust risk stratification scheme would be important. Few studies have examined whether nonlinear dynamics of the heart rate could predict ischemic strokes in AF. We examined whether a novel complexity measurement of the heart rate variability called multiscale entropy (MSE) was a useful risk stratification measure of ischemic strokes in patients with permanent AF. Methods and Results We examined 173 consecutive patients (age 69±11 years) with permanent AF who underwent 24-hour Holter electrocardiography from April 2005 to December 2006. We assessed several frequency ranges of the MSE and CHA2DS2-VASc score (1 point for congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, vascular disease, an age 65 to 74 years, and a female sex and 2 points for an age≥75 years and a stroke or transient ischemic attack). We found 22 (13%) incident ischemic strokes during a mean follow up of 3.8-years. The average value of the MSE in the very-low frequency subrange (90–300 s, MeanEnVLF2) was significantly higher in patients who developed ischemic strokes than in those who did not (0.68±0.15 vs. 0.60±0.14, P<0.01). There was no significant difference in the C-statistic between the CHA2DS2-VASc score and MeanEnVLF2 (0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.43–0.69 vs. 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.53–0.79). After an adjustment for the age, CHA2DS2-VASc score, and antithrombotic agent, a Cox hazard regression model revealed that the MeanEnVLF2 was an independent predictor of an ischemic stroke (hazard ratio per 1-SD increment, 1.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.17–2.07, P<0.01). Conclusion The MeanEnVLF2 in 24-hour Holter electrocardiography is a useful risk stratification measure of ischemic strokes during the long-term follow-up in patients with permanent AF. PMID:26325058

  4. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of linear and nonlinear indices of heart rate variability in stable angina patients

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) is related to higher morbidity and mortality. In this study we evaluated the linear and nonlinear indices of the HRV in stable angina patients submitted to coronary angiography. Methods We studied 77 unselected patients for elective coronary angiography, which were divided into two groups: coronary artery disease (CAD) and non-CAD groups. For analysis of HRV indices, HRV was recorded beat by beat with the volunteers in the supine position for 40 minutes. We analyzed the linear indices in the time (SDNN [standard deviation of normal to normal], NN50 [total number of adjacent RR intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50ms] and RMSSD [root-mean square of differences]) and frequency domains ultra-low frequency (ULF) ≤ 0,003 Hz, very low frequency (VLF) 0,003 – 0,04 Hz, low frequency (LF) (0.04–0.15 Hz), and high frequency (HF) (0.15–0.40 Hz) as well as the ratio between LF and HF components (LF/HF). In relation to the nonlinear indices we evaluated SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2, approximate entropy (−ApEn), α1, α2, Lyapunov Exponent, Hurst Exponent, autocorrelation and dimension correlation. The definition of the cutoff point of the variables for predictive tests was obtained by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC). The area under the ROC curve was calculated by the extended trapezoidal rule, assuming as relevant areas under the curve ≥ 0.650. Results Coronary arterial disease patients presented reduced values of SDNN, RMSSD, NN50, HF, SD1, SD2 and -ApEn. HF ≤ 66 ms2, RMSSD ≤ 23.9 ms, ApEn ≤−0.296 and NN50 ≤ 16 presented the best discriminatory power for the presence of significant coronary obstruction. Conclusion We suggest the use of Heart Rate Variability Analysis in linear and nonlinear domains, for prognostic purposes in patients with stable angina pectoris, in view of their overall impairment. PMID:23110977

  5. Further tests of a model-based scheme for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rickard, W. W.; Levison, W. H.

    1981-01-01

    A methodology was demonstrated for assessing longitudinal-axis handling qualities of transport aircraft on the basis of closed-loop criteria. Six longitudinal-axis approach configurations were studied covering a range of handling quality problems that included the presence of flexible aircraft modes. Using closed-loop performance requirements derived from task analyses and pilot interviews, predictions of performance/workload tradeoffs were obtained using an analytical pilot/vehicle model. A subsequent manned simulation study yielded objective performance measures and Cooper-Harper pilot ratings that were largely consistent with each other and with analytic predictions.

  6. Predicting End-of-Semester Interest and Self-Efficacy from Course and Professor Ratings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riconscente, Michelle M.; Seli, Helena

    2012-01-01

    Prior research has shown that both self-efficacy and interest are related to important academic processes outcomes such as use of deep strategies, persistence, attention, and achievement. However, little research has examined whether course and professor characteristics are predictive of undergraduates' self-efficacy and interest. The present…

  7. Population Mean Scores Predict Child Mental Disorder Rates: Validating SDQ Prevalence Estimators in Britain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodman, Anna; Goodman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Background: For adult physical and mental health, the population mean predicts the proportion of individuals with "high" scores. This has not previously been investigated for child mental health. It is also unclear how far symptom scores on brief questionnaires provide an unbiased method of comparing children with different individual, family or…

  8. Journal Reviewer Ratings: Issues of Particularistic Bias, Agreement, and Predictive Validity within the Manuscript Review Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vecchio, Robert P.

    2006-01-01

    Reviewer evaluations and recommendations for 853 manuscript submissions, over a span of 4 years, are analyzed for evidence of particularistic bias, reviewer agreement, and predictive validity for forecasting a published manuscript's citation impact. Attributes of the submitters, their affiliated institutions, and the reviewers have little…

  9. Predicting metabolic rate across walking speed: One fit for all body sizes?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We formulated a "one-size-fits-all" model that predicts the energy requirements of level human walking from height, weight, and walking speed. Our three-component model theorizes that the energy expended per kilogram per stride is independent of stature at mechanically equivalent walking speeds. We ...

  10. Speed of Inhibition Predicts Teacher--Rated Medication Response in Boys with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scheres, Anouk; Oosterlaan, Jaap; Sergeant, Joseph A.

    2006-01-01

    This study aimed at investigating whether one of the key deficits in Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), slow response inhibition, predicted the response to methylphenidate (MPH) treatment. In order to address this issue, we used Stop Signal Reaction Times (SSRTs) measured at baseline in 20 medication-naive boys with ADHD as…

  11. Falling Off Track: How Teacher-Student Relationships Predict Early High School Failure Rates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Shazia Rafiullah

    This paper examines the relationship between the climate of teacher-student relations within a school and individual student's likelihood of freshman year success. Using administrative data from the Chicago Public Schools and survey data, researchers used hierarchical linear modeling to determine whether teacher-student climate predicts students'…

  12. PREDICTION OF VO2PEAK USING OMNI RATINGS OF PERCEIVED EXERTION FROM A SUBMAXIMAL CYCLE EXERCISE TEST

    PubMed Central

    Mays, Ryan J.; Goss, Fredric L.; Nagle-Stilley, Elizabeth F.; Gallagher, Michael; Schafer, Mark A.; Kim, Kevin H.; Robertson, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The primary aim of this study was to develop statistical models to predict peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) using OMNI Ratings of Perceived Exertion measured during submaximal cycle ergometry. Men (mean ± standard error: 20.90 ± 0.42 yrs) and women (21.59 ± 0.49 yrs) participants (n = 81) completed a load-incremented maximal cycle ergometer exercise test. Simultaneous multiple linear regression was used to develop separate VO2peak statistical models using submaximal ratings of perceived exertion for the overall body, legs, and chest/breathing as predictor variables. VO2peak (L·min−1) predicted for men and women from ratings of perceived exertion for the overall body (3.02 ± 0.06; 2.03 ± 0.04), legs (3.02 ± 0.06; 2.04 ± 0.04) and chest/breathing (3.02 ± 0.05; 2.03 ± 0.03) were similar with measured VO2peak (3.02 ± 0.10; 2.03 ± 0.06, ps > .05). Statistical models based on submaximal OMNI Ratings of Perceived Exertion provide an easily administered and accurate method to predict VO2peak. PMID:25068750

  13. CFD Prediction for Spin Rate of Fixed Canards on a Spinning Projectile

    SciTech Connect

    Ji, X. L.; Jia, Ch. Y.; Jiang, T. Y.

    2011-09-28

    A computational study performed for spin rate of fixed cancards on a spinning projectile is presented in this paper. The cancards configurations provide challenges in terms of the determination of the aerodynamic forces and moments and the flow field changes which could have significant effect on the stability, performance, and corrected round accuracy. Advanced time accurate Navier-Stokes computations have been performed to compute the spin rate associated with the spinning motion of the cancards configurations at supersonic speed. The results show that roll-damping moment of cancards varies linearly with the spin rate at supersonic velocity.

  14. Multi-scale heart rate dynamics detected by phase-rectified signal averaging predicts mortality after acute myocardial infarction

    PubMed Central

    Kisohara, Masaya; Stein, Phyllis K.; Yoshida, Yutaka; Suzuki, Mari; Iizuka, Narushi; Carney, Robert M.; Watkins, Lana L.; Freedland, Kenneth E.; Blumenthal, James A.; Hayano, Junichiro

    2013-01-01

    Aims Acceleration and deceleration capacity (AC and DC) for beat-to-beat short-term heart rate dynamics are powerful predictors of mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We examined if AC and DC for minute-order long-term heart rate dynamics also have independent predictive value. Methods and results We studied 24-hr Holter electrcardiograms in 708 post-AMI patients who were followed up for up to 30 months thereafter. Acceleration capacity and DC was calculated with the time scales of T (window size defining heart rate) and s (wavelet scale) from 1 to 500 s and compared their prognostic values with conventional measures (ACconv and DCconv) that were calculated with (T,s) = [1,2 (beat)]. During the follow-up, 47 patients died. Both increased ACconv and decreased DCconv predicted mortality (C statistic, 0.792 and 0.797). Concordantly, sharp peaks of C statistics were observed at (T,s) = [2,7 (sec)] for both increased AC and decreased DC (0.762 and 0.768), but there were larger peaks of C statistics at around [30,60 (sec)] for both (0.783 and 0.796). The C statistic was greater for DC than AC at (30,60) (P = 0.0012). Deceleration capacity at (30,60) was a significant predictor even after adjusted for ACconv (P = 0.020) and DCconv (P = 0.028), but the predictive power of AC at (30,60) was no longer significant. Conclusion A decrease in DC for minute-order long-term heart rate dynamics is a strong predictor for post-AMI mortality and the predictive power is independent of ACconv and DCconv for beat-to-beat short-term heart rate dynamics. PMID:23248218

  15. The Influence of Accretion Rate and Metallicity on Thermonuclear Bursts: Predictions from KEPLER Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lampe, Nathanael; Heger, Alexander; Galloway, Duncan K.

    2016-03-01

    Using the KEPLER hydrodynamics code, 464 models of thermonuclear X-ray bursters were performed across a range of accretion rates and compositions. We present the library of simulated burst profiles from this sample, and examine variations in the simulated light curve for different model conditions. We find that the recurrence time varies as a power law against accretion rate, and measure its slope while mixed H/He burning is occurring for a range of metallicities, finding the power law gradient to vary from η =1.1 to 1.24. We identify the accretion rates at which mixed H/He burning stops and a transition occurs to different burning regimes. We explore how varying the accretion rate and metallicity affects burst morphology in both the rise and tail.

  16. QSARS FOR PREDICTING REDUCTIVE TRANSFORMATION RATE CONSTANTS OF HALOGENATED AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS IN ANOXIC SEDIMENT SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) are developed relating initial and final pseudo-first-order disappearance rate constants of 45 halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons in anoxic sediments to four readily available molecular descriptors: the carbon-halogen bond stre...

  17. A method of predicting flow rates required to achieve anti-icing performance with a porous leading edge ice protection system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kohlman, D. L.; Albright, A. E.

    1983-01-01

    An analytical method was developed for predicting minimum flow rates required to provide anti-ice protection with a porous leading edge fluid ice protection system. The predicted flow rates compare with an average error of less than 10 percent to six experimentally determined flow rates from tests in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel on a general aviation wing section.

  18. Isolation and Characterization of Monokaryotic Strains of Lentinula edodes Showing Higher Fruiting Rate and Better Fruiting Body Production

    PubMed Central

    Ha, Byeong-Suk; Kim, Sinil

    2015-01-01

    The effects of monokaryotic strains on fruiting body formation of Lentinula edodes were examined through mating and cultivation of the mated dikaryotic mycelia in sawdust medium. To accomplish this, monokaryotic strains of L. edodes were isolated from basidiospores of the commercial dikaryotic strains, Chamaram (Cham) and Sanjo701 (SJ701). A total of 703 matings (538 self-matings and 165 outcrosses) were performed, which generated 133 self-mates and 84 outcross mates. The mating rate was 25% and 50% for self-mating and outcross, respectively. The bipolarity of the outcross indicated the multi-allelic nature of the mating type genes. The mating was only dependent on the A mating type locus, while the B locus showed no effect, implying that the B locus is multi-allelic. Next, 145 selected dikaryotic mates were cultivated in sawdust medium. The self-mated dikaryotic progenies showed 51.3% and 69.5% fruiting rates for Cham and SJ701, respectively, while the fruiting rate of the outcross mates was 63.2%. The dikaryotic mates generated by mating with one of the monokaryotic strains, including A20, B2, E1, and E3, showed good fruiting performance and tended to yield high fruiting body production, while many of the monokaryotic strains failed to form fruiting bodies. Overall, these findings suggest that certain monokaryotic strains have traits enabling better mating and fruiting. PMID:25892911

  19. Predictive Value of Baseline Electronic Columbia–Suicide Severity Rating Scale (eC–SSRS) Assessments for Identifying Risk of Prospective Reports of Suicidal Behavior During Research Participation

    PubMed Central

    Mundt, James C.; Gwaltney, Chad J.; Jefferson, James W.; Posner, Kelly

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Examine the ability of baseline electronic Columbia–Suicide Severity Rating Scale lifetime suicidal ideation and behavior categories to predict prospective reports of suicidal behavior in psychiatric and non-psychiatric research participants. Design: Meta-analysis of 74,406 eC-SSRS assessments completed between September 2009 and December 2012. Setting: Thirty-three clinical research studies that used the electronic Columbia–Suicide Severity Rating Scale to assess suicidal ideation and behavior at baseline and prospectively during follow-up visits. Participants: Records from 6,760 patients with psychiatric disorders (opioid dependence, generalized anxiety, major depressive, and posttraumatic stress disorders) and 2,077 nonpsychiatric disorder patients (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, epilepsy, fibromyalgia, human immunodeficiency virus, insomnia, multiple sclerosis, osteoarthritis, pain/back pain, Parkinson’s disease, restless leg syndrome) were analyzed. Measurements: Electronic Columbia–Suicide Severity Rating Scale assessment of lifetime suicidal ideation (5 severity levels) and suicidal behavior (4 types) at baseline and prospectively reported suicidal behavior during study participation. Results: Increasingly more severe lifetime suicidal ideation at baseline was associated with a progressively greater likelihood of prospectively reported suicidal behavior during study participation. Intent to act on suicidal ideation was most predictive of reports of suicidal behavior. Reports of lifetime suicidal behaviors at baseline also predicted subsequent suicidal behavior, and multiple lifetime behaviors monotonically increased prospective risk of suicidal behavior. Baseline suicidal ideation and behavior predicted future suicidal behavior in both psychiatric and non-psychiatric trials. Conclusions: Lifetime reports of suicidal ideation and/or behavior at baseline significantly increased risk of prospectively reporting suicidal behavior during

  20. Steep Gravel Bedload Rating Curves Obtained From Bedload Traps Shift Effective Discharge to Flows Much Higher Than "Bankfull"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bunte, K.; Swingle, K. W.; Abt, S. R.; Cenderelli, D.

    2012-12-01

    Effective discharge (Qeff) is defined as the flow at which the product of flow frequency and bedload transport rates obtains its maximum. Qeff is often reported to correspond with bankfull flow (Qbf), where Qeff approximates the 1.5 year recurrence interval flow (Q1.5). Because it transports the majority of all bedload, Qeff is considered a design flow for stream restoration and flow management. This study investigates the relationship between Qeff and Q1.5 for gravel bedload in high elevation Rocky Mountain streams. Both the flow frequency distribution (FQ = a × Qbin-b) where Qbin is the flow class, and the bedload transport rating curve (QB = c × Qd) can be described by power functions. The product FQ × QB = (a × c × Q(-b + d)) is positive if d + -b >0, and negative if d + -b <0. FQ × QB can only attain a maximum (=Qeff) if either FQ or QB exhibit an inflection point. In snowmelt regimes, low flows prevail for much of the year, while high flows are limited to a few days, and extreme floods are rare. In log-log plotting scale, this distribution causes the longterm flow frequency function FQ to steepen in the vicinity of Q1.5. If the bedload rating curve exponent is small, e.g., = 3 as is typical of Helley-Smith bedload samples, d + -b shifts from >0 to <0, causing FQ × QB to peak, and Qeff to be around Q1.5. For measurements thought to be more representative of actual gravel transport obtained using bedload traps and similar devices, large rating curve exponents d of 6 - 16 are typical. In this case, d + -b remains >0, and FQ × QB reaches its maximum near the largest flow on record (Qeff,BT = Qmax). Expression of FQ by negative exponential functions FQ = k × e(Qbin×-m) smooths the product function FQ × QB that displays its maximum as a gentle hump rather than a sharp peak, but without drastically altering Qeff. However, a smooth function FQ × QB allows Qeff to react to small changes in rating curve exponents d. As d increases from <1 to >10, Qeff

  1. Equine endometrial cytology and bacteriology: effectiveness for predicting live foaling rates.

    PubMed

    Davies Morel, M C G; Lawlor, O; Nash, D M

    2013-10-01

    Endometritis is an important cause of sub-fertility in mares. The critical indicator of reproductive success and financial return for commercial studs is live foaling rate. Endometrial bacteriology and/or cytology are used to diagnose endometritis and thus identify mares at risk of early embryonic death. However, mares with endometritis may conceive but then abort in late gestation. The aims of this study were to establish, as part of a standard breeding examination (1) whether a threshold percentage of uterine polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMNs) exists above which a significant reduction in live foaling rate is evident; (2) the relationship of a positive bacteriology result to live foaling rate, and (3) the relationship of a combination of positive cytology and bacteriology result to live foaling rate. Guarded endometrial swabs (n=2660) were collected from 1621 Thoroughbred mares on 17 commercial stud farms by five veterinarians during a single breeding season. All mares were included regardless of age, history or parity. Cytological and bacteriological analyses were performed on each swab and subsequent live foaling rates recoded. Data were analysed by comparing 0%, ≥ 1%, ≥ 2%, ≥ 5% or ≥ 25% PMNs of total cells counted, or categories of bacterial growth to live foaling rates, using Pearson's chi-squared test. A threshold value of ≥ 1% PMNs, culture of a single bacterial isolate and a combination of both these parameters were associated with significantly reduced live foaling rates. Positive cytology alone, positive bacterial culture alone, or combined positive cytology and bacteriology were equally indicative of the likelihood of a mare producing a live foal. PMID:24035467

  2. Revised predictions of long-period ocean tidal effects on Earth's rotation rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dickman, S. R.; Nam, Young S.

    1995-01-01

    The rotational response of Earth to long-period tidal forces, embodied in a 'zonal response function,' can be expected to vary with frequency because of variable contributions by the oceans, mantle, and core. The zonal response function has been estimated from 9 years of International Radio Interferometric Surveying (IRIS) universal time (UT1) data and compared with theoretical predictions, using a spherical harmonic tide model to compute the oceans' dynamic response, at semiannual, monthly, fortnightly, and 9-day lunisolar tidal frequencies. Different amounts of mantle anelasticity have been considered for both the oceanic and soild earth responses; predictions have been made assuming axial core-mantle coupling which is either complete or absent. Additionally, an extensive recalibration of the ocean model's frictional parameters was performed using constraints derived in part from Space92 polar motion data; zonal response function predictions have also been made employing this recalibrated ocean tide model. Our results indicate that any amount of core coupling can be ruled out at a fortnightly period and probably at a 9-day period, but not at a monthly period. Our results also suggest that the mantle responds purely elastically at a 9-day period but may behave increasingly anelastically at longer periods. A simple dispersive rule is postulated for periods ranging up to the 14-month Chandler wobble period.

  3. Voltage gating by molecular subunits of Na+ and K+ ion channels: higher-dimensional cubic kinetics, rate constants, and temperature

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The structural similarity between the primary molecules of voltage-gated Na and K channels (alpha subunits) and activation gating in the Hodgkin-Huxley model is brought into full agreement by increasing the model's sodium kinetics to fourth order (m3 → m4). Both structures then virtually imply activation gating by four independent subprocesses acting in parallel. The kinetics coalesce in four-dimensional (4D) cubic diagrams (16 states, 32 reversible transitions) that show the structure to be highly failure resistant against significant partial loss of gating function. Rate constants, as fitted in phase plot data of retinal ganglion cell excitation, reflect the molecular nature of the gating transitions. Additional dimensions (6D cubic diagrams) accommodate kinetically coupled sodium inactivation and gating processes associated with beta subunits. The gating transitions of coupled sodium inactivation appear to be thermodynamically irreversible; response to dielectric surface charges (capacitive displacement) provides a potential energy source for those transitions and yields highly energy-efficient excitation. A comparison of temperature responses of the squid giant axon (apparently Arrhenius) and mammalian channel gating yields kinetic Q10 = 2.2 for alpha unit gating, whose transitions are rate-limiting at mammalian temperatures; beta unit kinetic Q10 = 14 reproduces the observed non-Arrhenius deviation of mammalian gating at low temperatures; the Q10 of sodium inactivation gating matches the rate-limiting component of activation gating at all temperatures. The model kinetics reproduce the physiologically large frequency range for repetitive firing in ganglion cells and the physiologically observed strong temperature dependence of recovery from inactivation. PMID:25867741

  4. Voltage gating by molecular subunits of Na+ and K+ ion channels: higher-dimensional cubic kinetics, rate constants, and temperature.

    PubMed

    Fohlmeister, Jürgen F

    2015-06-01

    The structural similarity between the primary molecules of voltage-gated Na and K channels (alpha subunits) and activation gating in the Hodgkin-Huxley model is brought into full agreement by increasing the model's sodium kinetics to fourth order (m(3) → m(4)). Both structures then virtually imply activation gating by four independent subprocesses acting in parallel. The kinetics coalesce in four-dimensional (4D) cubic diagrams (16 states, 32 reversible transitions) that show the structure to be highly failure resistant against significant partial loss of gating function. Rate constants, as fitted in phase plot data of retinal ganglion cell excitation, reflect the molecular nature of the gating transitions. Additional dimensions (6D cubic diagrams) accommodate kinetically coupled sodium inactivation and gating processes associated with beta subunits. The gating transitions of coupled sodium inactivation appear to be thermodynamically irreversible; response to dielectric surface charges (capacitive displacement) provides a potential energy source for those transitions and yields highly energy-efficient excitation. A comparison of temperature responses of the squid giant axon (apparently Arrhenius) and mammalian channel gating yields kinetic Q10 = 2.2 for alpha unit gating, whose transitions are rate-limiting at mammalian temperatures; beta unit kinetic Q10 = 14 reproduces the observed non-Arrhenius deviation of mammalian gating at low temperatures; the Q10 of sodium inactivation gating matches the rate-limiting component of activation gating at all temperatures. The model kinetics reproduce the physiologically large frequency range for repetitive firing in ganglion cells and the physiologically observed strong temperature dependence of recovery from inactivation. PMID:25867741

  5. Diminished respirative growth and enhanced assimilative sugar uptake result in higher specific fermentation rates by the mutant Pichia stipitis FPL-061

    SciTech Connect

    Sreenath, H.K.; Jeffries, T.W. |

    1997-12-31

    A mutant strain of Pichia stipitis, FPL-061, was obtained by selecting for growth on L-xylose in the presence of respiratory inhibitors. The specific fermentation rate of FPL-061, was higher than that of the parent, Pichia stipitis CBS 6054, because of its lower cell yield and growth rate and higher specific substrate uptake rate. With a mixture of glucose and xylose, the mutant strain FPL-061 produced 29.4 g ethanol/L with a yield of 0.42 g ethanol/g sugar consumed. By comparison, CBS 6054 produced 25.7 g ethanol/L with a yield of 0.35 g/g. The fermentation was most efficient at an aeration rate of 9.2 mmoles O{sub 2} L{sup -1} h{sup -1}. At high aeration rates (22 mmoles O{sub 2} L{sup -1} h{sup -1}), the mutant cell yield was less than that of the parent. At low aeration rates, (1.1 to 2.5 O{sub 2} L{sup -1} h{sup -1}), cell yields were similar, the ethanol formation rates were low, and xylitol accumulation was observed in both the strains. Both strains respired the ethanol once sugar was exhausted. We infer from the results that the mutant, P. stipitis FPL-061, diverts a larger fraction of its metabolic energy from cell growth into ethanol production. 21 refs., 5 figs.

  6. Using mass scaling of movement cost and resource encounter rate to predict animal body size-population density relationships.

    PubMed

    Nilsen, Erlend B; Finstad, Anders G; Næsje, Tor F; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne

    2013-06-01

    The negative relationship between body mass and population abundance was documented decades ago and forms one of the most fundamental scaling-laws in ecology. However, current theory fails to capture observed variations and the subject continues to raise controversy. Here we unify empirically observed size-abundance relationships with theory, by incorporating allometries in resource encounter rate and metabolic costs of movements. Fractal geometry is used to quantify the underlying resources distributions. Our model predicts that in environments packed with resources, body mass to population abundance relationships is less negative than the commonly assumed -3/4 power law. When resources are more patchily distributed, we predict a more negative exponent. These predictions are consistent with empirical observations. The current research provides an important step towards synthesizing metabolism, resource distribution and the global scaling of animal abundance, explaining why size-abundance relationships vary among feeding guilds and ecosystems. PMID:23548840

  7. Early Language Milestones Predict Later Language, but not Autism Symptoms in Higher Functioning Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kenworthy, Lauren; Wallace, Gregory L.; Powell, Kelly; Anselmo, Cheryl; Martin, Alex; Black, David O.

    2012-01-01

    Language ability is a known predictor of outcome in children with autism but plays a more controversial role for higher functioning children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We studied the relationship between early language milestones and later structural language, adaptive functioning and autism symptoms in a sample of 76 children (mean age…

  8. The Effects of Different Loan Schemes for Higher Education Tuition: An Analysis of Rates of Return and Tuition Revenue in Thailand

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chapman, Bruce; Lounkaew, Kiatanantha

    2009-01-01

    In recent times there has been considerable change and instability with respect to Thailand student loans policy. The contribution of what follows is to compare and contrast the consequences of disparate possible approaches to the payment of tuition in two main respects: the effect on internal rates of return for higher education investments; and…

  9. Challenges of 40/100 Gbps and higher-rate deployments over long-haul transport networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pincemin, Erwan; Karaki, Julie; Loussouarn, Yann; Poignant, Hubert; Betoule, Christophe; Thouenon, Gilles; Bidan, Raphaël Le

    2011-10-01

    The 40/100 Gbps solutions are finally mature for WDM transmission on legacy system and fiber infrastructure of incumbent carriers, which want to upgrade their core and metropolitan transport networks beyond 10 Gbps. One technology, based on the combination of PM-QPSK modulation format, coherent detection and digital signal processing, has solved the dilemma of ultra high bit rate transmission over PMD-limited fiber infrastructure, which has postponed during 10 years 40/100 Gbps deployments. But already, in the R&D laboratories, people start to prepare the next generation of long-distance WDM systems operating at 400 Gbps and 1 Tbps per wavelength. The challenges of 40/100 Gbps deployments on existing system and fiber infrastructure are discussed here, while the most efficient economical conditions for their introduction are determined. The different options for 400 Gbps and 1 Tbps WDM transmissions are compared, while the technical requirements which would allow transporting 50 Tbps overall capacity on more than 1500 km are introduced. The potential consequences of this unbelievable increase of the data rate over the operation of metropolitan and core transport networks are also given, whereas solutions to manage them while increasing the flexibility of these networks are proposed.

  10. Dual-Source Computed Tomographic Temporal Resolution Provides Higher Image Quality Than 64-Detector Temporal Resolution at Low Heart Rates

    PubMed Central

    Araoz, Philip A.; Kirsch, Jacobo; Primak, Andrew N.; Braun, Natalie N.; Saba, Osama; Williamson, Eric E.; Harmsen, W. Scott; Mandrekar, Jayawant N.; McCollough, Cynthia H.

    2010-01-01

    Objective To compare coronary image quality at temporal resolutions associated with dual-source computed tomography (DSCT; 83 milliseconds) and 64–detector row scanning (165 milliseconds). Methods In 30 patients with a heart rate of less than 70 beats per minute, DSCT coronary angiograms were reconstructed at 83- and 165-millisecond temporal resolutions over different cardiac phases. A blinded observer graded coronary quality. Results The typical DSCT temporal resolution (83 milliseconds) showed a significantly greater quality at end-systole for all coronary vessels and at end-diastole for the right coronary and left anterior descending coronary arteries. For all vessels, the end-diastole produced the highest quality for both temporal resolutions. Conclusions Imaging at 83 milliseconds creates superior quality at end-systole for all coronary vessels and at end-diastole for the right coronary and left anterior descending coronary arteries. At low heart rates, end-diastole produces the highest quality at both temporal resolutions. PMID:20118724

  11. The use of artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression to predict rate of medical waste generation

    SciTech Connect

    Jahandideh, Sepideh Jahandideh, Samad; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari; Askarian, Mehrdad; Movahedi, Mohammad Mehdi; Hosseini, Somayyeh; Jahandideh, Mina

    2009-11-15

    Prediction of the amount of hospital waste production will be helpful in the storage, transportation and disposal of hospital waste management. Based on this fact, two predictor models including artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression (MLR) were applied to predict the rate of medical waste generation totally and in different types of sharp, infectious and general. In this study, a 5-fold cross-validation procedure on a database containing total of 50 hospitals of Fars province (Iran) were used to verify the performance of the models. Three performance measures including MAR, RMSE and R{sup 2} were used to evaluate performance of models. The MLR as a conventional model obtained poor prediction performance measure values. However, MLR distinguished hospital capacity and bed occupancy as more significant parameters. On the other hand, ANNs as a more powerful model, which has not been introduced in predicting rate of medical waste generation, showed high performance measure values, especially 0.99 value of R{sup 2} confirming the good fit of the data. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the non-linear nature of ANNs in problem solving which provides the opportunity for relating independent variables to dependent ones non-linearly. In conclusion, the obtained results showed that our ANN-based model approach is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better cost-effective strategy for waste management in future.

  12. How personal resources predict work engagement and self-rated performance among construction workers: a social cognitive perspective.

    PubMed

    Lorente, Laura; Salanova, Marisa; Martínez, Isabel M; Vera, María

    2014-06-01

    Traditionally, research focussing on psychosocial factors in the construction industry has focused mainly on the negative aspects of health and on results such as occupational accidents. This study, however, focuses on the specific relationships among the different positive psychosocial factors shared by construction workers that could be responsible for occupational well-being and outcomes such as performance. The main objective of this study was to test whether personal resources predict self-rated job performance through job resources and work engagement. Following the predictions of Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory and the motivational process of the Job Demands-Resources Model, we expect that the relationship between personal resources and performance will be fully mediated by job resources and work engagement. The sample consists of 228 construction workers. Structural equation modelling supports the research model. Personal resources (i.e. self-efficacy, mental and emotional competences) play a predicting role in the perception of job resources (i.e. job control and supervisor social support), which in turn leads to work engagement and self-rated performance. This study emphasises the crucial role that personal resources play in determining how people perceive job resources by determining the levels of work engagement and, hence, their self-rated job performance. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. PMID:24821509

  13. LDL and HDL transfer rates across peripheral microvascular endothelium agree with those predicted for passive ultrafiltration in humans

    PubMed Central

    Michel, C. Charles; Nanjee, M. Nazeem; Olszewski, Waldemar L.; Miller, Norman E.

    2015-01-01

    The mechanisms by which LDLs and HDLs cross the vascular endothelium from plasma into interstitial fluid are not understood, and have never been studied in humans in vivo. We determined whether the plasma-to-lymph clearance rates of LDL and HDL conform with those predicted by passive ultrafiltration through intercellular pores, or if it is necessary to invoke an active process such as receptor-mediated transcytosis. Plasma and afferent peripheral lymph were collected under steady-state conditions from 30 healthy men, and assayed for seven globular proteins of molecular radii 2.89–8.95 nm, complement C3, and apo AI, apo AII, and apo B. Plasma-to-lymph clearance rates of the seven proteins fitted the relation expected for molecules of their size when transported through two populations of pores of radius 4.95 and 20.1 nm. The same model parameters were then found to accurately predict the clearance rates of both HDL and LDL. The apparent clearance of complement C3, previously shown to be secreted by cultured endothelium, exceeded that predicted by the model. We conclude that the transport of HDL and LDL from plasma into interstitial fluid across the peripheral vascular endothelium in healthy humans can be explained by ultrafiltration without invoking an additional active process such as transcytosis. PMID:25398615

  14. INITIAL TEST OF THE BENCHMARK CHEMICAL APPROACH FOR PREDICTING MICROBIAL TRANSFORMATION RATES IN AQUATIC ENVIRONMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Using 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid methyl ester (2,4-DME) as a benchmark chemical, we determined relative pseudo-first-order rate coefficients for butoxyethyl ester of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-DBE), methyl parathion, and methyl-3-chlorobenzoate in a diversity of micr...

  15. USING δ13C TO PREDICT THE RATE OF BIODEGRADATION OF MTBE

    EPA Science Inventory

    It is difficult to estimate the rate of natural biodegradation of MTBE at field scale. Dispersion in the aquifer or dilution in the well can give a false impression of attenuation along a flow path. The first product of MTBE biodegradation is TBA. Many gasoline spills contain TB...

  16. The Collection and Prediction of Training Emphasis Ratings for Curriculum Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruck, Hendrick W.

    The generalizability of earlier findings on training objectives for military specialties was studied. Thirteen tasks or jobs, involving mechanical, electrical, general, or administrative aptitude, were rated by senior noncommissioned officers on: recommended field training emphaisi; present school emphasis; consequences of inadequate job…

  17. Race, Social Class, and Predictive Bias: An Evaluation using the WISC, WRAT, and Teacher Ratings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Svanum, Soren; Bringle, Robert G.

    1982-01-01

    Interrelationships among IQ, academic achievement, and teacher ratings of pupils' classroom achievement were evaluated in a large sample of children from various racial and socioeconomic backgrounds. A substantial relationship between standardized measures of IQ and achievement was found and was independent of race, but decreased with increasing…

  18. A mechanistic detachment rate model to predict soil erodibility due to fluvial and seepage forces

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The erosion rate of cohesive soils is typically computed using an excess shear stress model based on the applied fluvial shear stress. However, no mechanistic approaches are available for incorporating additional forces such as localized groundwater seepage forces into the excess shear stress model...

  19. Do the Naive Know Best? The Predictive Power of Naive Ratings of Couple Interactions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baucom, Katherine J. W.; Baucom, Brian R.; Christensen, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    We examined the utility of naive ratings of communication patterns and relationship quality in a large sample of distressed couples. Untrained raters assessed 10-min videotaped interactions from 134 distressed couples who participated in both problem-solving and social support discussions at each of 3 time points (pre-therapy, post-therapy, and…

  20. Predicting the Migration Rate of Dialkyl Organotins from PVC Pipe into Water

    EPA Science Inventory

    Organotins (OTs) are additives widely used as thermal and light stabilizers in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastics. OTs can leach into water flowing through PVC pipes. This work examines the leaching rates of two neurotoxic OTs, dimethyl tin (DMT) and dibutyl tin (DBT), from PVC pi...