Science.gov

Sample records for regional econmic impact

  1. Socioeconomic effects of power marketing alternatives for the Central Valley and Washoe Projects: 2005 regional econmic impact analysis using IMPLAN

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, D.M.; Godoy-Kain, P.; Gu, A.Y.; Ulibarri, C.A.

    1996-11-01

    The Western Area Power Administration (Western) was founded by the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 to market and transmit federal hydroelectric power in 15 western states outside the Pacific Northwest, which is served by the Bonneville Power Administration. Western is divided into four independent Customer Service Regions including the Sierra Nevada Region (Sierra Nevada), the focus of this report. The Central Valley Project (CVP) and the Washoe Project provide the primary power resources marketed by Sierra Nevada. Sierra Nevada also purchases and markets power generated by the Bonneville Power Administration, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), and various power pools. Sierra Nevada currently markets approximately 1,480 megawatts of power to 77 customers in northern and central California. These customers include investor-owned utilities, public utilities, government agencies, military bases, and irrigation districts. Methods and conclusions from an economic analysis are summarized concerning distributional effects of alternative actions that Sierra Nevada could take with it`s new marketing plan.

  2. Venus - Lavinia Region Impact Craters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Three large meteorite impact craters, with diameters that range from 37 to 50 kilometers (23 to 31 miles), are seen in this image of the Lavinia region of Venus. The image is centered at 27 degrees south latitude and 339 degrees east longitude (longitude on Venus is measured from 0 degrees to 360 degrees east), and covers an area 550 kilometers (342 miles) wide by about 500 kilometers (311 miles) long. Situated in a region of fractured plains, the craters show many features typical of meteorite impact craters, including rough (bright) material around the rim, terraced inner walls and central peaks. Numerous domes, probably caused by volcanic activity, are seen in the southeastern corner of the mosaic. The domes range in diameter from 1 to 12 kilometers (0.6 to 7 miles). Some of the domes have central pits that are typical of some types of volcanoes. North is at the top of the image.

  3. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  4. Satellite monitoring of impact Arctic regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bondur, V. G.; Vorobev, V. E.

    2015-12-01

    The results of satellite monitoring of the environmental state of impact Arctic regions subjected to heavy anthropogenic influence are given. We analyze arrays of vegetation indices and complex spectral transformations derived from processed long-term (1973-2013) satellite data for areas around the cities of Arkhangelsk and Zapolyarny (Murmansk oblast). These data have been used to evaluate the changes in the state of the environment and reveal areas of peak anthropogenic impacts causing significant morphologic changes in all kinds of geosystems and strongly affecting the Arctic natural ecosystems. We have identified the impact regions that are subjected to peak anthropogenic impact and found that these areas are associated with specific industrial facilities.

  5. Regionalizing land use impacts on farmland birds.

    PubMed

    Glemnitz, Michael; Zander, Peter; Stachow, Ulrich

    2015-06-01

    The environmental impacts of land use vary regionally. Differences in geomorphology, climate, landscape structure, and biotope inventories are regarded as the main causes of this variation. We present a methodological approach for identifying regional responses in land use type to large-scale changes and the implications for the provision of habitat for farmland birds. The methodological innovations of this approach are (i) the coupling of impact assessments with economic models, (ii) the linking of cropping techniques at the plot scale with the regional distribution of land use, and (iii) the integration of statistical or monitoring data on recent states. This approach allows for the regional differentiation of farmers' responses to changing external conditions and for matching the ecological impacts of land use changes with regional environmental sensitivities. An exemplary scenario analysis was applied for a case study of an area in Germany, assessing the impacts of increased irrigation and the promotion of energy cropping on farmland birds, evaluated as a core indicator for farmland biodiversity. The potential effects on farmland birds were analyzed based on the intrinsic habitat values of the crops and cropping techniques. The results revealed that the strongest decrease in habitat availability for farmland birds occurred in regions with medium-to-low agricultural yields. As a result of the limited cropping alternatives, the increase in maize production was highest in marginal regions for both examined scenarios. Maize production replaced many crops with good-to-medium habitat suitability for birds. The declines in habitat quality were strongest in regions that are not in focus for conservation efforts for farmland birds. PMID:25957192

  6. The regional environmental impact of biomass production

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.L.

    1994-09-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a broad overview of the potential environmental impacts of biomass energy from energy crops. The subject is complex because the environmental impact of using biomass for energy must be considered in the context of alternative energy options while the environmental impact of producing biomass from energy crops must be considered in the context of the alternative land-uses. Using biomass-derived energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions or increase them; growing biomass energy crops can enhance soil fertility or degrade it. Without knowing the context of the biomass energy, one can say little about its specific environmental impacts. The primary focus of this paper is an evaluation of the environmental impacts of growing energy crops. I present an approach for quantitatively evaluating the potential environmental impact of growing energy crops at a regional scale that accounts for the environmental and economic context of the crops. However, to set the stage for this discussion, I begin by comparing the environmental advantages and disadvantages of biomass-derived energy relative to other energy alternatives such as coal, hydropower, nuclear power, oil/gasoline, natural gas and photovoltaics.

  7. Venus - Impact Crater in Eastern Navka Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    This Magellan image, which is 50 kilometers (31 miles) in width and 80 kilometers (50 miles) in length, is centered at 11.9 degrees latitude, 352 degrees longitude in the eastern Navka Region of Venus. The crater, which is approximately 8 kilometers (5 miles) in diameter, displays a butterfly symmetry pattern. The ejecta pattern most likely results from an oblique impact, where the impactor came from the south and ejected material to the north.

  8. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1997-12-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  9. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1998-01-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  10. Agriculture Impacts of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian

    2013-04-01

    One of the major consequences of nuclear war would be climate change due to massive smoke injection into the atmosphere. Smoke from burning cities can be lofted into the stratosphere where it will have an e-folding lifetime more than 5 years. The climate changes include significant cooling, reduction of solar radiation, and reduction of precipitation. Each of these changes can affect agricultural productivity. To investigate the response from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, we used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer agricultural simulation model. We first evaluated the model by forcing it with daily weather data and management practices in China and the USA for rice, maize, wheat, and soybeans. Then we perturbed observed weather data using monthly climate anomalies for a 10-year period due to a simulated 5 Tg soot injection that could result from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, using a total of 100 15 kt atomic bombs, much less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal. We computed anomalies using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE and NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We perturbed each year of the observations with anomalies from each year of the 10-year nuclear war simulations. We found that different regions respond differently to a regional nuclear war; southern regions show slight increases of crop yields while in northern regions crop yields drop significantly. Sensitivity tests show that temperature changes due to nuclear war are more important than precipitation and solar radiation changes in affecting crop yields in the regions we studied. In total, crop production in China and the USA would decrease 15-50% averaged over the 10 years using both models' output. Simulations forced by ModelE output show smaller impacts than simulations forced by WACCM output at the end of the 10 year period because of the different temperature responses in the two models.

  11. Sustainable regional development and natural hazard impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrova, Elena; Svetlosanov, Vladimir; Kudin, Valery

    2016-04-01

    During the last decades, natural hazard impacts on social and economic development in many countries were increasing due to the expansion of human activities into the areas prone to natural risks as well as to increasing in number and severity of natural hazardous events caused by climate changes and other natural phenomena. The escalation of severe disasters (such as Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan 2011) triggered by natural hazards and related natural-technological and environmental events is increasingly threatening sustainable development at different levels from regional to global scale. In our study, we develop a model of ecological, economic and social sustainable development for the European part of Russia and the Republic of Belarus. The model consists of six blocks including 1) population, 2) environment, 3) mineral resources, 4) geographic space, 5) investments, and 6) food production and import. These blocks were created based on the analysis of the main processes at the regional level; all the blocks are closely interrelated between each other. Reaching the limit values of block parameters corresponds to a sharp deterioration of the system; as a result, the system can lose its stability. Aggravation of natural and natural-technological risk impacts on each block and should be taken into account in the model of regional development. Natural hazards can cause both strong influences and small but permanent perturbations. In both cases, a system can become unstable. The criterion for sustainable development is proposed. The Russian Foundation for Humanities and Belorussian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research supported the study (project 15-22-01008).

  12. Regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners.

    PubMed

    Hjerpe, Evan E; Kim, Yeon-Su

    2007-10-01

    Economic impact analysis (EIA) of outdoor recreation can provide critical social information concerning the utilization of natural resources. Outdoor recreation and other non-consumptive uses of resources are viewed as environmentally friendly alternatives to extractive-type industries. While outdoor recreation can be an appropriate use of resources, it generates both beneficial and adverse socioeconomic impacts on rural communities. The authors used EIA to assess the regional economic impacts of rafting in Grand Canyon National Park. The Grand Canyon region of northern Arizona represents a rural US economy that is highly dependent upon tourism and recreational expenditures. The purpose of this research is twofold. The first is to ascertain the previously unknown regional economic impacts of Grand Canyon river runners. The second purpose is to examine attributes of these economic impacts in terms of regional multipliers, leakage, and types of employment created. Most of the literature on economic impacts of outdoor recreation has focused strictly on the positive economic impacts, failing to illuminate the coinciding adverse and constraining economic impacts. Examining the attributes of economic impacts can highlight deficiencies and constraints that limit the economic benefits of recreation and tourism. Regional expenditure information was obtained by surveying non-commercial boaters and commercial outfitters. The authors used IMPLAN input-output modeling to assess direct, indirect, and induced effects of Grand Canyon river runners. Multipliers were calculated for output, employment, and income. Over 22,000 people rafted on the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park in 2001, resulting in an estimated $21,100,000 of regional expenditures to the greater Grand Canyon economy. However, over 50% of all rafting-related expenditures were not captured by the regional economy and many of the jobs created by the rafting industry are lower-wage and seasonal. Policy

  13. Regional, Rural Home ABE Program Spells Impact.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vachon, Claude

    Maine's State Division of Adult Education began setting up a regionalized Adult Basic Education (ABE) program in rural Franklin county in 1974 to serve the area's functional illiterates. Located in the building housing the Franklin County Community Action Program (CAP), linkages were developed with a large number of agencies; initially the 10 CAP…

  14. Impacts on regional climate of Amazon deforestation

    SciTech Connect

    Dickinson, R.E.; Kennedy, P. NCAR, Boulder, CO )

    1992-10-01

    A simulation of the climate response to Amazon deforestation has been carried out. Precipitation is decreased on the average by 25 percent or 1.4 mm/day, with ET and runoff both decreasing by 0.7 mm/day. Modifications of surface energy balance through change of albedo and roughness are complicated by cloud feedbacks. The initial decrease of the absorption of solar radiation by higher surface albedos is largely cancelled by a reduction in cloud cover, but consequent reduction in downward longwave has a substantial impact on surface energy balance. Smoke aerosols might have an effect comparable to deforestation during burning season. 8 refs.

  15. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts in the Great Lakes region of the United States. One intent of this presentation is to introduce the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), a recently-funded NOAA RISA center. The goals and unique organizational structure of GLISA will be described along with core activities that support impact and assessment studies in the region. Additionally, observed trends in temperature, precipitation including lake effect snowfall, and lake temperatures and ice cover will be summarized for the Great Lakes region, and vulnerabilities to, and potential impacts of, climate change will be surveyed for critical natural and human systems. These include forest ecosystems, water resources, traditional and specialized agriculture, and tourism/recreation. Impacts and vulnerabilities unique to the Great Lakes region are emphasized.

  16. Assessing regional and warming level dependent differences in climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wohland, Jan; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea; Fischer, Erich M.; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Differentiation between climate impacts at different levels of warming is of great relevance for scientists and policy makers. Knowledge of the consequences of different development and temperature pathways is essential to inform international climate negotiations and regional adaptation planning alike. At the same time, not only the warming dimension but also the regional dimension of changes in impacts is of interest, since regional changes might not be linearly related to global mean temperature increase. A detailed understanding of regionally differentiated impacts is an important basis on which to develop suitable coping strategies and adaptation options. Here we present a framework that allows for a differentiation of regional changes in climate impacts at different levels of temperature increase. Based on data from the CMIP5 archive as well as output from the AgMIP project, we assess the climate impact projections for an increase in global mean surface air temperature of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 26 regions used in the IPCC SREX report. We show results for several extreme event indices as well as projections of water availability and agricultural yields. Based on a method developed by Fischer et al. (2013), we are able to test for statistical significance of changes in climate impact projections between the different warming levels across the model ensemble. References: Fischer, E. M., Beyerle, U. & Knutti, R. Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes. Nature Climate Change 3, 1033-1038 (2013).

  17. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  18. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  19. How global extinctions impact regional biodiversity in mammals.

    PubMed

    Huang, Shan; Davies, T Jonathan; Gittleman, John L

    2012-04-23

    Phylogenetic diversity (PD) represents the evolutionary history of a species assemblage and is a valuable measure of biodiversity because it captures not only species richness but potentially also genetic and functional diversity. Preserving PD could be critical for maintaining the functional integrity of the world's ecosystems, and species extinction will have a large impact on ecosystems in areas where the ecosystem cost per species extinction is high. Here, we show that impacts from global extinctions are linked to spatial location. Using a phylogeny of all mammals, we compare regional losses of PD against a model of random extinction. At regional scales, losses differ dramatically: several biodiversity hotspots in southern Asia and Amazonia will lose an unexpectedly large proportion of PD. Global analyses may therefore underestimate the impacts of extinction on ecosystem processes and function because they occur at finer spatial scales within the context of natural biogeography. PMID:21957091

  20. Impact of Asia Dust Aerosols on Regional Environment and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.

    2015-12-01

    East Asia is a major dust source in the world and has great impacts on regional climate in Asia, where the large arid and semi-arid regions are. In this study, the typical transport paths of East Asia dust, which affect regional and global climates, are demonstrated and numerous effects of dust aerosols on clouds and precipitation primarily over East Asian arid and semi-arid regions are discussed. Compared with the dust aerosols of Saharan, those of East Asian are more absorptive of solar radiation, and can influence the cloud properties not only by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei but also through changing the relative humidity and stability of the atmosphere (via semi-direct effect). Converting visible light to thermal energy, dust aerosols can burn clouds to produce a warming effect on climate, which is opposite to the first and second indirect effects of aerosols. Over Asia arid and semi-arid regions, the positive feedback in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction may aggravate drought in its inner land. Impact of Asia dust on regional environment, especially on haze weather, are also presented in this talk.

  1. Regional Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayhoe, K.; Burkett, V.; Grimm, N.; McCarthy, J.; Miles, E.; Overpeck, J.; Shea, E.; Wuebbles, D.

    2009-05-01

    Climate change will affect one region differently from another. For that reason, the U.S. Unified Synthesis Product "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States" broke down its assessment of climate change impacts on the country into 8 regions. Key highlights include: In the Northeast, agricultural production, including dairy, fruit, and maple syrup, will be increasingly affected as favorable climates shift northward. In the Southeast, accelerated sea-level rise and increased hurricane intensity will have serious impacts. In the Midwest, under higher emissions scenarios, significant reductions in Great Lakes water levels will impact shipping, infrastructure, beaches, and ecosystems. In the Great Plains, projected increases in temperature, evaporation, and drought frequency exacerbate concerns regarding the region's declining water resources. In the Southwest, water supplies will become increasingly scarce, calling for trade-offs among competing uses, and potentially leading to conflict. In the Northwest, salmon and other cold-water species will experience additional stresses as a result of rising water temperatures and declining summer streamflows. In Alaska, thawing permafrost damages roads, runways, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure. And in the U.S. islands in the Caribbean and Pacific, climate changes affecting coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries. In addition, significant sea-level rise and storm surge will affect coastal cities and ecosystems around the nation; low-lying and subsiding areas are most vulnerable.

  2. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  3. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-06-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  4. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  5. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. PMID:26282744

  6. Global, regional and local health impacts of civil aviation emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yim, Steve H. L.; Lee, Gideon L.; Lee, In Hwan; Allroggen, Florian; Ashok, Akshay; Caiazzo, Fabio; Eastham, Sebastian D.; Malina, Robert; Barrett, Steven R. H.

    2015-03-01

    Aviation emissions impact surface air quality at multiple scales—from near-airport pollution peaks associated with airport landing and take off (LTO) emissions, to intercontinental pollution attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. Previous studies have quantified aviation’s air quality impacts around a specific airport, in a specific region, or at the global scale. However, no study has assessed the air quality and human health impacts of aviation, capturing effects on all aforementioned scales. This study uses a multi-scale modeling approach to quantify and monetize the air quality impact of civil aviation emissions, approximating effects of aircraft plume dynamics-related local dispersion (˜1 km), near-airport dispersion (˜10 km), regional (˜1000 km) and global (˜10 000 km) scale chemistry and transport. We use concentration-response functions to estimate premature deaths due to population exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and ozone, finding that aviation emissions cause ˜16 000 (90% CI: 8300-24 000) premature deaths per year. Of these, LTO emissions contribute a quarter. Our estimate shows that premature deaths due to long-term exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and O3 lead to costs of ˜21 bn per year. We compare these costs to other societal costs of aviation and find that they are on the same order of magnitude as global aviation-attributable climate costs, and one order of magnitude larger than aviation-attributable accident and noise costs.

  7. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  8. Determining long-term regional erosion rates using impact craters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hergarten, Stefan; Kenkmann, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    More than 300,000 impact craters have been found on Mars, while the surface of Moon's highlands is even saturated with craters. In contrast, only 184 impact craters have been confirmed on Earth so far with only 125 of them exposed at the surface. The spatial distribution of these impact craters is highly inhomogeneous. Beside the large variation in the age of the crust, consumption of craters by erosion and burial by sediments are the main actors being responsible for the quite small and inhomogeneous crater record. In this study we present a novel approach to infer long-term average erosion rates at regional scales from the terrestrial crater inventory. The basic idea behind this approach is a dynamic equilibrium between the production of new craters and their consumption by erosion. It is assumed that each crater remains detectable until the total erosion after the impact exceeds a characteristic depth depending on the crater's diameter. Combining this model with the terrestrial crater production rate, i.e., the number of craters per unit area and time as a function of their diameter, allows for a prediction of the expected number of craters in a given region as a function of the erosion rate. Using the real crater inventory, this relationship can be inverted to determine the regional long-term erosion rate and its statistical uncertainty. A limitation by the finite age of the crust can also be taken into account. Applying the method to the Colorado Plateau and the Deccan Traps, both being regions with a distinct geological history, yields erosion rates in excellent agreement with those obtained by other, more laborious methods. However, these rates are formally exposed to large statistical uncertainties due to the small number of impact craters. As higher crater densities are related to lower erosion rates, smaller statistical errors can be expected when large regions in old parts of the crust are considered. Very low long-term erosion rates of less than 4

  9. Earth Impact Effects Program: Estimating the Regional Environmental Consequences of Impacts On Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, G. S.; Melosh, H. J.; Marcus, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    The Earth Impact Effects Program (www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects) is a popular web-based calculator for estimating the regional environmental consequences of a comet or asteroid impact on Earth. It is widely used, both by inquisitive members of the public as an educational device and by scientists as a simple research tool. It applies a variety of scaling laws, based on theory, nuclear explosion test data, observations from terrestrial and extraterrestrial craters and the results of small-scale impact experiments and numerical modelling, to quantify the principal hazards that might affect the people, buildings and landscape in the vicinity of an impact. The program requires six inputs: impactor diameter, impactor density, impact velocity prior to atmospheric entry, impact angle, and the target type (sedimentary rock, crystalline rock, or a water layer above rock), as well as the distance from the impact at which the environmental effects are to be calculated. The program includes simple algorithms for estimating the fate of the impactor during atmospheric traverse, the thermal radiation emitted by the impact plume (fireball) and the intensity of seismic shaking. The program also approximates various dimensions of the impact crater and ejecta deposit, as well as estimating the severity of the air blast in both crater-forming and airburst impacts. We illustrate the strengths and limitations of the program by comparing its predictions (where possible) against known impacts, such as Carancas, Peru (2007); Tunguska, Siberia (1908); Barringer (Meteor) crater, Arizona (ca 49 ka). These tests demonstrate that, while adequate for large impactors, the simple approximation of atmospheric entry in the original program does not properly account for the disruption and dispersal of small impactors as they traverse Earth's atmosphere. We describe recent improvements to the calculator to better describe atmospheric entry of small meteors; the consequences of oceanic impacts; and

  10. Urban, Regional and Global Impacts of Biomass Burning Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Artaxo, P.; Ferreira De Brito, J.; Barbosa, H. M.; Rizzo, L. V.; Setzer, A.; Cirino, G.

    2013-05-01

    Biomass burning is a major regional and global driver for atmospheric composition. Its effects in regional and global climate are very significant, but still difficult to assess. Even in large urban areas in Latin America such as Mexico City, Sao Paulo and Santiago, and in developed areas such as Paris and Californian cities it is possible to observe significant biomass burning effects air quality. The wood burning components as well as inner city and vicinities burning if agricultural residues impact heavily the concentration of organic aerosol, carbon monoxide and ozone in urban areas. Regionally, regions such as Amazonia and Central America show large plumes of smoke that extend their impact over continental areas, with changes in the radiation balance, air quality and climate. The deforestation rate in Amazonia have dropped strongly from 27,000 Km2 in 2004 to 6,200 Km2 in 2011, a very significant reduction, but this reduction was not observed in Africa and Southeast Asia. Health effects of biomass burning emissions are very significant, and observed in several key regions. Remote sensing techniques for fire detection have progressed significantly and long time series (10-15 years) are now feasible. The black carbon associated with biomass burning has important impacts in formation and development of clouds in Amazonia and other regions. The organic component of biomass burning emissions scatter light and increase diffuse radiation that alters carbon uptake in large regions of Amazonia and certainly other forested areas. Increase of up to 30% in carbon uptake associated with biomass burning emissions was observed in Amazonia, as part of the LBA Experiment. New analytical methods that quantify the absorption angstrom exponent of biomass burning and fossil fuel black carbon (BC) can differentiate BC from different burning sources. In addition, the hygroscopic properties of particles with a core shell of BC coated with organic compounds can be measured and shows

  11. Renewable biomass energy: Understanding regional scale environmental impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.L.; Downing, M.

    1993-12-31

    If biomass energy is to become a significant component of the US energy sector, millions of acres of farmland must be converted to energy crops. The environmental implications of this change in land use must be quantitatively evaluated. The land use changes will be largely driven by economic considerations. Farmers will grow energy crops when it is profitable to do so. Thus, models which purport to predict environmental changes induced by energy crop production must take into account those economic features which will influence land use change. In this paper, we present an approach for projecting the probable environmental impacts of growing energy crops at the regional scale. The approach takes into account both economic and environmental factors. We demonstrate the approach by analyzing, at a county-level the probable impact of switchgrass production on erosion, evapotranspiration, nitrate in runoff, and phosphorous fertilizer use in multi-county subregions within the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) region. Our results show that the adoption of switchgrass production will have different impacts in each subregion as a result of differences in the initial land use and soil conditions in the subregions. Erosion, evapotranspiration, and nitrate in runoff are projected to decrease in both subregions as switchgrass displaces the current crops. Phosphorous fertilizer applications are likely to increase in one subregion and decrease in the other due to initial differences in the types of conventional crops grown in each subregion. Overall these changes portend an improvement in water quality in the subregions with the increasing adoption of switchgrass.

  12. Salinity Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater in Delta Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, D.; Salehin, M.; Jairuddin, M.; Saleh, A. F. M.; Rahman, M. M.; Parks, K. E.; Haque, M. A.; Lázár, A. N.; Payo, A.

    2015-12-01

    Delta regions are attractive for high intensity agriculture due to the availability of rich sedimentary soils and of fresh water. Many of the world's tropical deltas support high population densities which are reliant on irrigated agriculture. However environmental changes such as sea level rise, tidal inundation and reduced river flows have reduced the quantity and quality of water available for successful agriculture. Additionally, anthropogenic influences such as the over abstraction of ground water and the increased use of low quality water from river inlets has resulted in the accumulation of salts in the soils which diminishes crop productivity. Communities based in these regions are usually reliant on the same water for drinking and cooking because surface water is frequently contaminated by commercial and urban pollution. The expansion of shallow tube well systems for drinking water and agricultural use over the last few decades has resulted in mobilisation of salinity in the coastal and estuarine fringes. Sustainable development in delta regions is becoming constrained by water salinity. However salinity is often studied as an independent issue by specialists working in the fields of agriculture, community water supply and groundwater. The lack of interaction between these disciplines often results in corrective actions being applied to one sector without fully assessing the effects of these actions on other sectors. This paper describes a framework for indentifying the causes and impacts of salinity in delta regions based on the source-pathway-receptor framework. It uses examples and scenarios from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta in Bangladesh together with field measurements and observations made in vulnerable coastal communities. The paper demonstrates the importance of creating an holistic understanding of the development and management of water resources to reduce the impact of salinity in fresh water in delta regions.

  13. The Regional Environmental Impacts of Atmospheric Aerosols over Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakey, Ashraf; Ibrahim, Alaa

    2015-04-01

    Identifying the origin (natural versus anthropogenic) and the dynamics of aerosols over Egypt at varying temporal and spatial scales provide valuable knowledge on the regional climate impacts of aerosols and their ultimate connections to the Earth's regional climate system at the MENA region. At regional scale, Egypt is exposed to air pollution with levels exceeding typical air-quality standards. This is particularly true for the Nile Delta region, being at the crossroads of different aerosol species originating from local urban-industrial and biomass-burning activities, regional dust sources, and European pollution from the north. The Environmental Climate Model (EnvClimA) is used to investigate both of the biogenic and anthropogenic aerosols over Egypt. The dominant natural aerosols over Egypt are due to the sand and dust storms, which frequently occur during the transitional seasons (spring and autumn). In winter, the maximum frequency reaches 2 to 3 per day in the north, which decreases gradually southward with a frequency of 0.5-1 per day. Monitoring one of the most basic aerosol parameters, the aerosol optical depth (AOD), is a main experimental and modeling task in aerosol studies. We used the aerosol optical depth to quantify the amount and variability of aerosol loading in the atmospheric column over a certain areas. The aerosols optical depth from the model is higher in spring season due to the impacts of dust activity over Egypt as results of the westerly wind, which carries more dust particles from the Libyan Desert. The model result shows that the mass load of fine aerosols has a longer life-time than the coarse aerosols. In autumn season, the modelled aerosol optical depth tends to increase due to the biomass burning in the delta of Egypt. Natural aerosol from the model tends to scatter the solar radiation while most of the anthropogenic aerosols tend to absorb the longwave solar radiation. The overall results indicate that the AOD is lowest in winter

  14. Regional and Global Impacts of Megacity Air Pollution in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Renyi

    2014-05-01

    Air quality has deteriorated in many megacities of China because of their rapid economic developments. For example, as the world's second largest economy, China has experienced severe air pollution, with aerosols or fine particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) reaching unprecedented high levels across many cities in recent winters. In addition to the impacts of aerosols on air chemistry, visibility, and human health, intense aerosol pollution is believed to exert profound impacts on the regional and global atmosphere and climate. In the first part of the talk, perspectives are provided on formation and transformation of haze in China. In the second part the long-term impacts of aerosols on precipitation and lightning over a megacity area in China will be presented, on the basis of atmospheric observations and simulations using a cloud-resolving WRF model. Our results reveal that elevated aerosol loading suppresses light and moderate precipitation, but enhances heavy precipitation. Also, we demonstrate climatically modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over past three decades, using a novel hierarchical modeling approach and observational analysis. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

  15. Forecasting energy security impacts of biofuels using regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, X.; Campbell, E.; Snyder, M. A.; Sloan, L.; Kueppers, L. M.

    2010-12-01

    Production of biofuels in the U.S. is growing rapidly, with corn providing the dominant feedstock for current production and corn stover potentially providing a critical feedstock source for future cellulosic ethanol production. While production of domestic biofuels is thought to improve energy security, future changes in climate may impact crop yield variability and erode the energy security benefits of biofuels. Here we examine future yield variability for corn and soy using RegCM regional climate data from NARCAPP, historical agronomic data, and statistical models of yield variability. Our simulations of historical yield anomalies using monthly temperature and precipitation data from RegCM show robust relationships to observed yield anomalies. Simulations of future yield anomalies show increased yield variability relative to historical yield variability in the region of high corn production. Since variability in energy supply is a critical concern for energy security we suggest that the climate-induced yield variability on critical biofuels feedstocks be explored more widely.

  16. Potential impact of U.S. biofuels on regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgescu, M.; Lobell, D. B.; Field, C. B.

    2009-11-01

    Recent work has shown that current bio-energy policy directives may have harmful, indirect consequences, affecting both food security and the global climate system. An additional unintended but direct effect of large-scale biofuel production is the impact on local and regional climate resulting from changes in the energy and moisture balance of the surface upon conversion to biofuel crops. Using the latest version of the WRF modeling system we conducted twenty-four, midsummer, continental-wide, sensitivity experiments by imposing realistic biophysical parameter limits appropriate for bio-energy crops in the Corn Belt of the United States. In the absence of strain/crop-specific parameterizations, a primary goal of this work was to isolate the maximum regional climate impact, for a trio of individual July months, due to land-use change resulting from bio-energy crops and to identify the relative importance of each biophysical parameter in terms of its individual effect. Maximum, local changes in 2 m temperature of the order of 1°C occur for the full breadth of albedo (ALB), minimum canopy resistance (RCMIN), and rooting depth (ROOT) specifications, while the regionally (105°W-75°W and 35°N-50°N) and monthly averaged response of 2 m temperature was most pronounced for the ALB and RCMIN experiments, exceeding 0.2°C. The full range of albedo variability associated with biofuel crops may be sufficient to drive regional changes in summertime rainfall. Individual parameter effects on 2 m temperature are additive, highlight the cooling contribution of higher leaf area index (LAI) and ROOT for perennial grasses (e.g., Miscanthus) versus annual crops (e.g., maize), and underscore the necessity of improving location- and vegetation-specific representation of RCMIN and ALB.

  17. Regional climate impacts of a biofuels policy projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Christopher J.; Anex, Robert P.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gelder, Brian K.; Khanal, Sami; Herzmann, Daryl E.; Gassman, Phillip W.

    2013-03-01

    The potential for regional climate change arising from adoption of policies to increase production of biofuel feedstock is explored using a regional climate model. Two simulations are performed using the same atmospheric forcing data for the period 1979-2004, one with present-day land use and monthly phenology and the other with land use specified from an agro-economic prediction of energy crop distribution and monthly phenology consistent with this land use change. In Kansas and Oklahoma, where the agro-economic model predicts 15-30% conversion to switchgrass, the regional climate model simulates locally lower temperature (especially in spring), slightly higher relative humidity in spring and slightly lower relative humidity in summer, and summer depletion of soil moisture. This shows the potential for climate impacts of biofuel policies and raises the question of whether soil water depletion may limit biomass crop productivity in agricultural areas that are responsive to the policies. We recommend the use of agronomic models to evaluate the possibility that soil moisture depletion could reduce productivity of biomass crops in this region. We conclude, therefore, that agro-economic and climate models should be used iteratively to examine an ensemble of agricultural land use and climate scenarios, thereby reducing the possibility of unforeseen consequences from rapid changes in agricultural production systems.

  18. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Impact on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta; Kirillov, Andrey S.

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  19. Modeling Regional Air Quality Impacts from Indonesian Biomass Burning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jumbam, L.; Raffuse, S. M.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Larkin, N.

    2012-12-01

    Smoke from thousands of forest-clearing burns in Indonesia cause widespread air quality impacts in cities across southeastern Asia. These fires, which can produce significant smoke due to peat burning, are readily detected by polar orbiting satellites. Widespread smoke can be seen in satellite imagery, and high concentrations of particulate matter are detected by ground based sensors. Here we present results of a pilot modeling study focusing on the September 2011 Indonesian smoke episode. In the study, fire location information was collected from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The BlueSky modeling framework, which links information about fire locations with smoke emissions and meteorological models, was used to pass the fire location information from MODIS through the Fire INventories from NCAR (FINN) methodology to estimate emissions of aerosol and gaseous pollutants from the fires. These emissions were further directed by BlueSky through the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, which predicted the dispersion and transport of PM2.5 from the fires. The resulting regional PM2.5 concentration maps from BlueSky were compared with satellite imagery and urban ground stations, where available. This work demonstrates the extension of a system developed for producing daily smoke predictions in the United States outside of North America for the first time. We discuss the implications of regional smoke impacts and possibilities for predictive smoke modeling to protect public health in southeastern Asia.

  20. Human impacts on fluvial systems in the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hooke, J. M.

    2006-09-01

    The long history of substantial human impacts on the landscape of the Mediterranean region, and their effects on fluvial systems, is documented. These effects have included impacts of deforestation and other land use changes, agricultural terracing on a wide scale, water transfers, and irrigation schemes. During the 20th century, major changes were made directly to channels through channelisation, construction of dams of various sizes, and extraction of gravel, and indirectly by reforestation. These changes have caused a major phase of incision on some rivers. Runoff and soil erosion have been affected by types of crops and agricultural practices as well as by the varying extent of cultivation and grazing. Some recent agricultural practices involve wholescale relandscaping of the topography and alteration of surface properties of material. The importance of analysing the connectivity within different land units and of the spatial position of human activity within a catchment is illustrated. The analysis of connectivity is the key to understanding the variability of impact and the extent of propagation of effects.

  1. The hydrological consequences of human impact in the Lublin Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michalczyk, Zdzisław; Mięsiak-Wójcik, Katarzyna; Sposób, Joanna; Turczyński, Marek

    2012-01-01

    The Lublin Region is an area where local transformations in the natural environment, including the hydrosphere, occur. They result from the impact of agriculture, industry as well as water supply and sewage disposal. These activities lead to changes in the water network resulting from land improvement works, channel straightening and water runoff acceleration, as well as to the formation of local, both point and diffuse sources, of water pollution. The consequences of human impact are manifested in local transformations of the quality or quantity of water resources. As a result of intense groundwater draw-off, hydrogeological conditions are transformed, which is reflected in the persistence of depression cones of varied size and depth, noticeable in the vicinity of water intakes for Lublin, Chełm, Zamość and Kraśnik. The lowering of the first-level groundwater table also occurs as a consequence of the drainage of chalk and marl mine workings in Chełm and Rejowiec, whereas in the area of the hard coal mine both shallow and deep groundwater was transformed. It is important to indicate the consequences of human impact changes of water conditions as the hydrosphere resources should be used according to the principles of sustainable development.

  2. The urban impact on the regional climate of Dresden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sändig, B.; Renner, E.

    2010-09-01

    The principal objective of this research is to clarify the impact of urban elements such as buildings and streets on the regional climate and air quality in the framework of the BMBF-project "Regionales Klimaanpassungsprogramm f¨ur die Modellregion Dresden" (REGKLAM). Drawing on the example of Dresden this work explores how the presence of cities influences the atmospheric flow and the characteristics of the boundary layer. Persuing this target, an urban surface exchange parameterisation module (Martilli et al., 2002) was implemented in a high resolution version of the COSMO model, the forecast model of the German Weather Service (DWD). Using a mesoscale model for this regional climate study implies the advantage of embedding the focused area in a realistic large scale situation via downscaling by means of one way nesting and allows to simulate the urban impact for different IPCC-szenarios. The urban module is based on the assumption that a city could be represented by a bunch of "urban classes". Each urban class is characterised by specific properties such as typical street directions or probability of finding a building in a special height. Based on urban structure data of Dresden (vector shape-files containing the outlines of all buildings and the respective heights) an automated method of extracting the relevant geometrical input parameters for the urban module was developed. By means of this model setup we performed case studies, in which we investigate the interactions between the city structure and the meteorological variables with regard to special synoptical situations such as the Bohemian wind, a typical flow pattern of cold air, sourced from the Bohemian Basin, in the Elbe Valley, which acts then like a wind channel. Another focal point is formed by the investigation of different types of artificial cities ranging from densely builtup areas to suburban areas in order to illuminating the impact of the city type on the dynamical and thermal properties of

  3. Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, J.; Schrum, C.; Cannaby, H.; Daewel, U.; Allen, I.; Artioli, Y.; Bopp, L.; Butenschon, M.; Fach, B. A.; Harle, J.; Pushpadas, D.; Salihoglu, B.; Wakelin, S.

    2014-02-01

    Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the

  4. Scenarios of bioenergy development impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; Guan, Qingfeng; McCoy, Tim D.

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and drier future conditions. Although our research context is specific to the Rainwater Basin and surrounding North American Great Plains, we believe the broader research question is internationally pertinent and hope that this study simulates similar research in other areas.

  5. ClimateImpactsOnline: A web platform for regional climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nocke, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is widely known but there is often uncertainty about the specific effects. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to two challenges: (1) the complex information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, and (2) access to the information must be easy. Interested parties do not have time to familiarize themselves over a lengthy period, but rather want to immediately work with the information. Beside providing climate information globally, regional information become of increasing interest for local decision making regarding awareness building and adaptation options. In addition, current web portals mainly focus on climate information, considering climate impacts on different sectors only implicitly. As solution, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline have jointly developed an Internet portal that is easy to use, groups together interesting information about climate impacts and offers it in a directly usable form. This new web portal ClimateImpactsOnline.com provides detailed information, combining multiple sectors for the test case of Germany. For this region, numerous individual studies on climate change have been prepared by various institutions. These studies differ in terms of their aim, region and time period of interest. Thus, the goal of ClimateImpactsOnline.com is to present a synthesized view on regional impacts of global climate change on hydrology, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and health sector. The climate and impact variables are available on a decadal time resolution for the period from 1901-2100, combining observed data and future projections. Detailed information are presented

  6. A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the

  7. Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Case, Jonathon; LaFontaine, Frank; Vazquez, Jorge; Mattocks, Craig

    2010-01-01

    Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

  8. Octarepeat region flexibility impacts prion function, endoproteolysis and disease manifestation

    PubMed Central

    Lau, Agnes; McDonald, Alex; Daude, Nathalie; Mays, Charles E; Walter, Eric D; Aglietti, Robin; Mercer, Robert CC; Wohlgemuth, Serene; van der Merwe, Jacques; Yang, Jing; Gapeshina, Hristina; Kim, Chae; Grams, Jennifer; Shi, Beipei; Wille, Holger; Balachandran, Aru; Schmitt-Ulms, Gerold; Safar, Jiri G; Millhauser, Glenn L; Westaway, David

    2015-01-01

    The cellular prion protein (PrPC) comprises a natively unstructured N-terminal domain, including a metal-binding octarepeat region (OR) and a linker, followed by a C-terminal domain that misfolds to form PrPSc in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. PrPC β-endoproteolysis to the C2 fragment allows PrPSc formation, while α-endoproteolysis blocks production. To examine the OR, we used structure-directed design to make novel alleles, ‘S1’ and ‘S3’, locking this region in extended or compact conformations, respectively. S1 and S3 PrP resembled WT PrP in supporting peripheral nerve myelination. Prion-infected S1 and S3 transgenic mice both accumulated similar low levels of PrPSc and infectious prion particles, but differed in their clinical presentation. Unexpectedly, S3 PrP overproduced C2 fragment in the brain by a mechanism distinct from metal-catalysed hydrolysis reported previously. OR flexibility is concluded to impact diverse biological endpoints; it is a salient variable in infectious disease paradigms and modulates how the levels of PrPSc and infectivity can either uncouple or engage to drive the onset of clinical disease. PMID:25661904

  9. Impacted foreign bodies in orbital region: review of nine cases.

    PubMed

    Santos, Thiago de Santana; Melo, Auremir Rocha; Moraes, Hécio Henrique Araújo de; Almeida Júnior, Paulo; Dourado, Edwaldo

    2010-01-01

    Orbital injuries with a foreign body may result in severe structural and functional damage to the eye or orbital contents. Management and prognosis depend on the composition and location of the foreign body and whether there is secondary infection. Metallic objects and glass are the most frequently encountered and well-tolerated, whereas organic foreign bodies can elicit an inflammatory reaction and lead to serious complications. Despite the modern imaging methods, it is often difficult to identify and locate organic intraorbital foreign bodies. This paper presents a review of nine cases of impacted foreign bodies in the orbital region and discusses the diagnosis and treatment of this kind of injury. The following data were collected: age, gender, etiology of injury, occurrence of fracture, anatomical location of fracture, type of object, signs and symptoms, type of imaging exam used, approach, transoperative complication and occurrence of death. Foreign body injuries in the orbital region can be treated with a combination of clinical suspicion, basic knowledge and diagnostic tests and depend on the skill and experience of the surgeon, thereby decreasing the surgical risk of iatrogenic injury in relation to the inherent risk of retaining an organic intraorbital foreign body. PMID:21225129

  10. Octarepeat region flexibility impacts prion function, endoproteolysis and disease manifestation.

    PubMed

    Lau, Agnes; McDonald, Alex; Daude, Nathalie; Mays, Charles E; Walter, Eric D; Aglietti, Robin; Mercer, Robert C C; Wohlgemuth, Serene; van der Merwe, Jacques; Yang, Jing; Gapeshina, Hristina; Kim, Chae; Grams, Jennifer; Shi, Beipei; Wille, Holger; Balachandran, Aru; Schmitt-Ulms, Gerold; Safar, Jiri G; Millhauser, Glenn L; Westaway, David

    2015-03-01

    The cellular prion protein (PrP(C)) comprises a natively unstructured N-terminal domain, including a metal-binding octarepeat region (OR) and a linker, followed by a C-terminal domain that misfolds to form PrP(S) (c) in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. PrP(C) β-endoproteolysis to the C2 fragment allows PrP(S) (c) formation, while α-endoproteolysis blocks production. To examine the OR, we used structure-directed design to make novel alleles, 'S1' and 'S3', locking this region in extended or compact conformations, respectively. S1 and S3 PrP resembled WT PrP in supporting peripheral nerve myelination. Prion-infected S1 and S3 transgenic mice both accumulated similar low levels of PrP(S) (c) and infectious prion particles, but differed in their clinical presentation. Unexpectedly, S3 PrP overproduced C2 fragment in the brain by a mechanism distinct from metal-catalysed hydrolysis reported previously. OR flexibility is concluded to impact diverse biological endpoints; it is a salient variable in infectious disease paradigms and modulates how the levels of PrP(S) (c) and infectivity can either uncouple or engage to drive the onset of clinical disease. PMID:25661904

  11. A New Map of the Tyre Impact Region of Europa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, H. M.; Prockter, L. M.

    2013-12-01

    Images of the Tyre feature obtained by the Galileo spacecraft's Solid State Imager (SSI) at ~170 m/pixel show concentric graben and multiple secondary craters surrounding a central rough-textured circular region, indicating an impact origin. Only crosscut by two double ridges and a large fracture, the crater is young relative to the surrounding terrain. The crater and its surroundings were mapped by Kadel et al. (2000), who also interpreted the geological history of the region. We have remapped the Tyre area for the specific purpose of creating a product that can be used for detailed comparison with 6 km/pixel Galileo Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) data. The combined SSI and NIMS product will be used to determine variations in composition among different units using linear mixture modeling employing cryogenic laboratory reference spectra, a technique that has been successfully implemented elsewhere on Europa by e.g., Shirley et al. (2010). The major difference between our mapping results and those of Kadel et al. is that we subdivide some of the units, in order to better compare them with NIMS pixels in the next (future) phase of the study. We use an orthographic projection centered at 34 N, 146 W, and construct a geologic map that extends from 25 N to 42 N and 153 W to 133 W. We identify a number of units, subunits and structural features on the basis of relative albedo and morphology. The units are grouped into six categories: Crater materials, chaos, ridges, bands, pre-impact background terrains, and indeterminate features. Many of these units are consistent with those found in the Kadel et al. study, but we find a number of bands and chaos-related materials in the background ridged plains, that have not been mapped elsewhere. These are of a sufficient size to be relevant to our future compositional analysis. We find three types of chaos (compared to two from the previous study), which are primarily concentrated in the south of the study region. Type

  12. The Impact of Opioid Treatment on Regional Gastrointestinal Transit

    PubMed Central

    Poulsen, Jakob L; Nilsson, Matias; Brock, Christina; Sandberg, Thomas H; Krogh, Klaus; Drewes, Asbjørn M

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aims To employ an experimental model of opioid-induced bowel dysfunction in healthy human volunteers, and evaluate the impact of opioid treatment compared to placebo on gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms and motility assessed by questionnaires and regional GI transit times using the 3-dimensional (3D)-Transit system. Methods Twenty-five healthy males were randomly assigned to oxycodone or placebo for 5 days in a double blind, crossover design. Adverse GI effects were measured with the bowel function index, gastrointestinal symptom rating scale, patient assessment of constipation symptom questionnaire, and Bristol stool form scale. Regional GI transit times were determined using the 3D-Transit system, and segmental transit times in the colon were determined using a custom Matlab® graphical user interface. Results GI symptom scores increased significantly across all applied GI questionnaires during opioid treatment. Oxycodone increased median total GI transit time from 22.2 to 43.9 hours (P < 0.001), segmental transit times in the cecum and ascending colon from 5.7 to 9.9 hours (P = 0.012), rectosigmoid colon transit from 2.7 to 9.0 hours (P = 0.044), and colorectal transit time from 18.6 to 38.6 hours (P = 0.001). No associations between questionnaire scores and segmental transit times were detected. Conclusions Self-assessed GI adverse effects and increased GI transit times in different segments were induced during oxycodone treatment. This detailed information about segmental changes in motility has great potential for future interventional head-to-head trials of different laxative regimes for prevention and treatment of constipation. PMID:26811503

  13. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian; Xia, Lili

    2013-04-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere. This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface. Simulations with the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade. The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over several regions in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation. The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia

  14. In Brief: U.S. regional impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2007-12-01

    On 4 December, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change released a report that assesses climate vulnerabilities in four different areas of the United States. ``Regional impacts of climate change: Four case studies in the United States'' notes that midwestern cities are likely to experience more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves; that wildfires are likely to increase in the U.S. West; that sustaining fragile Gulf Coast wetlands ecosystems will be increasingly difficult due to climate change; and that the Chesapeake Bay may respond to climate change with more frequent and larger hypoxia events. The report indicates that adaptation measures need to be a critical component of any long-term U.S. climate strategy. ``The degree to which we can adapt to the consequences of climate change will be determined in large part by the policies and management practices we put in place today,'' said Pew Center president Eileen Claussen. For more information, visit the Web site: http://www.pewclimate.org.

  15. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Alaska Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts in Alaska. The resulting findings are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Summers are getting hotter and drier, with increasing evaporation outpacing increased precipitation. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Wildfires and insect problems are increasing. Climate plays a key role in determining the extent and severity of insect outbreaks and wildfire. The area burned in North America’s northern forest that spans Alaska and Canada tripled from the 1960s to the 1990s. During the 1990s, south-central Alaska experienced the largest outbreak of spruce bark beetles in the world because of warmer weather in all seasons of the year. Under changing climate conditions, the average area burned per year in Alaska is projected to double by the middle of this century10. By the end of this century, area burned by fire is projected to triple under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to quadruple under a higher emissions scenario. Close-bodied lakes are declining in area. A continued decline in the area of surface water would present challenges for the management of natural resources and ecosystems on National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. These refuges, which cover over 77 million acres (21 percent of Alaska) and comprise 81 percent of the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System, provide a breeding habitat for millions of waterfowl and shorebirds that winter in the lower 48 states. Permafrost thawing will damage public and private infrastructure. Land subsidence (sinking) associated with the thawing of permafrost presents substantial challenges to engineers attempting to preserve infrastructure in

  16. Digital Sequences and a Time Reversal-Based Impact Region Imaging and Localization Method

    PubMed Central

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Qian, Weifeng

    2013-01-01

    To reduce time and cost of damage inspection, on-line impact monitoring of aircraft composite structures is needed. A digital monitor based on an array of piezoelectric transducers (PZTs) is developed to record the impact region of impacts on-line. It is small in size, lightweight and has low power consumption, but there are two problems with the impact alarm region localization method of the digital monitor at the current stage. The first one is that the accuracy rate of the impact alarm region localization is low, especially on complex composite structures. The second problem is that the area of impact alarm region is large when a large scale structure is monitored and the number of PZTs is limited which increases the time and cost of damage inspections. To solve the two problems, an impact alarm region imaging and localization method based on digital sequences and time reversal is proposed. In this method, the frequency band of impact response signals is estimated based on the digital sequences first. Then, characteristic signals of impact response signals are constructed by sinusoidal modulation signals. Finally, the phase synthesis time reversal impact imaging method is adopted to obtain the impact region image. Depending on the image, an error ellipse is generated to give out the final impact alarm region. A validation experiment is implemented on a complex composite wing box of a real aircraft. The validation results show that the accuracy rate of impact alarm region localization is approximately 100%. The area of impact alarm region can be reduced and the number of PZTs needed to cover the same impact monitoring region is reduced by more than a half. PMID:24084123

  17. Digital sequences and a time reversal-based impact region imaging and localization method.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Qian, Weifeng

    2013-01-01

    To reduce time and cost of damage inspection, on-line impact monitoring of aircraft composite structures is needed. A digital monitor based on an array of piezoelectric transducers (PZTs) is developed to record the impact region of impacts on-line. It is small in size, lightweight and has low power consumption, but there are two problems with the impact alarm region localization method of the digital monitor at the current stage. The first one is that the accuracy rate of the impact alarm region localization is low, especially on complex composite structures. The second problem is that the area of impact alarm region is large when a large scale structure is monitored and the number of PZTs is limited which increases the time and cost of damage inspections. To solve the two problems, an impact alarm region imaging and localization method based on digital sequences and time reversal is proposed. In this method, the frequency band of impact response signals is estimated based on the digital sequences first. Then, characteristic signals of impact response signals are constructed by sinusoidal modulation signals. Finally, the phase synthesis time reversal impact imaging method is adopted to obtain the impact region image. Depending on the image, an error ellipse is generated to give out the final impact alarm region. A validation experiment is implemented on a complex composite wing box of a real aircraft. The validation results show that the accuracy rate of impact alarm region localization is approximately 100%. The area of impact alarm region can be reduced and the number of PZTs needed to cover the same impact monitoring region is reduced by more than a half. PMID:24084123

  18. Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roeckner, E.; Stier, P.; Feichter, J.; Kloster, S.; Esch, M.; Fischer-Bruns, I.

    2006-11-01

    The past and future evolution of atmospheric composition and climate has been simulated with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The system consists of the atmosphere, including a detailed representation of tropospheric aerosols, the land surface, and the ocean, including a model of the marine biogeochemistry which interacts with the atmosphere via the dust and sulfur cycles. In addition to the prescribed concentrations of carbon dioxide, ozone and other greenhouse gases, the model is driven by natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol), and by emissions of mineral dust, sea salt, sulfur, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM). Transient climate simulations were performed for the twentieth century and extended into the twenty-first century, according to SRES scenario A1B, with two different assumptions on future emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (BC, POM). In the first experiment, BC and POM emissions decrease over Europe and China but increase at lower latitudes (central and South America, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia). In the second experiment, the BC and POM emissions are frozen at their levels of year 2000. According to these experiments the impact of projected changes in carbonaceaous aerosols on the global mean temperature is negligible, but significant changes are found at low latitudes. This includes a cooling of the surface, enhanced precipitation and runoff, and a wetter surface. These regional changes in surface climate are caused primarily by the atmospheric absorption of sunlight by increasing BC levels and, subsequently, by thermally driven circulations which favour the transport of moisture from the adjacent oceans. The vertical redistribution of solar energy is particularly large during the dry season in central Africa when the anomalous atmospheric heating of up to 60 W m-2 and a corresponding decrease in surface solar radiation leads to a marked surface cooling, reduced

  19. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Mills, M. J.; Xia, L.

    2013-05-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere.This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface.Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade.The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation.The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of

  20. Impact of Drug Policy on Regional Trends in Ezetimibe Use

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Lingyun; Krumholz, Harlan M.; Tu, Jack V.; Ross, Joseph S.; Ko, Dennis T.; Jackevicius, Cynthia A.

    2014-01-01

    Background Ezetimibe use has steadily increased in Canada during the past decade even in the absence of evidence demonstrating a beneficial effect on clinical outcomes. Among the 4 most populated provinces in Canada, there is a gradient in the restrictiveness of ezetimibe in public-funded formularies (most to least strict: British Columbia, Alberta, Quebec and Ontario). The impact of formulary policy on the utilization of ezetimibe over time is unknown. Methods and Results We conducted a population-level cohort study using IMS Health Canada’s data from June 2003 to December 2012 to examine ezetimibe use in these 4 provinces to better understand the association between use and formulary restrictiveness. We found regional variations in the patterns of ezetimibe use. From June 2003 to December 2012, British Columbia(most restrictive) had the lowest monthly increasing rate from $261 to $21,926 ($190/100,000 population/month), whereas Ontario (least restrictive) had the most rapid monthly increase from $223 to $74,030 ($ 647/100,000 population/month); Quebec from $130 to $59,690 ($522/100,000 population/month) and Alberta from $356 to $ 37604 ($327/100,000 population/month) were intermediate. (P<0.001) Conclusions Ezetimibe use remains common, increasing over the past decade. Use steadily increased in provinces with the most lenient formularies. In contrast, use was lower, plateauing since 2008 in British Columbia and Alberta, which have more restrictive formularies. The gradient in ezetimibe use was related to variability in restrictiveness of the provincial formularies, illustrating the potential of a policy-response gradient that may be used to more effectively manage medication use. PMID:24895451

  1. The Study of Impacts of Water Transferring From Wet Regions To Dry Regions In Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Motiee-Homayoun, Dr.; Ghomashchi, Dr.

    Iran, with a very diverse ecology and different climate has been classified as a dry- semidry region. Iran's annual average of rain-fall is about 250 mm, while this figure is more than 1000 mm in north and less than 100 mm in the south of the country. Overall, Iran's water resources are low. Rapid population growth, economic growth together with significant urban development, in recent decades, has led to underestimate high demands for water. Therefore, water shortage has been considered more obviously. Such an important scare is rather serious in central and eastern regions of the country. This problem has been determined as a serious challenge for Iran's government and national water authorities, in particular. Although, drinking water supply is only 6 percent of total water resources, due to direct socio-political impacts, drinking water supply, in both quality and quantity, is more serious and important than agricultural water demands. Accordingly, for the following reasons: 1) Desperation and diversity of geographical conditions of urban areas 2) Low access to underground water 3) Inadequate quality surface water supply Difficulties and the costs of supplying urban water in Iran have been sharply increased. Presently, due to unconstrained consuming underground water and negative balance in most under ground resources of the country, more specifically in central and eastern regions, water supply from groundwater resources is very risky and misleading. Furthermore, other reason such as rapid urban population growth and changes in people's every day life and their consumption patterns increase both water consumption and waste water in the circumstances of inadequate sewage systems, make a vast source of pollution for water resources. Due to the influence of extended See (Salty) water, in southern provinces, near to Persian Gulf, accessibility to fresh water is rather difficult and in many cases only after tens of kilometers far from the see, fresh water could be

  2. Economic Impact of Dengue: Multicenter Study across Four Brazilian Regions

    PubMed Central

    Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi; Siqueira, Joao Bosco; Parente, Mirian Perpetua Palha Dias; Zara, Ana Laura de Sene Amancio; Oliveira, Consuelo Silva; Braga, Cynthia; Pimenta, Fabiano Geraldo; Cortes, Fanny; Lopez, Juan Guillermo; Bahia, Luciana Ribeiro; Mendes, Marcia Costa Ooteman; da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado; de Siqueira Filha, Noemia Teixeira; Constenla, Dagna; de Souza, Wayner Vieira

    2015-01-01

    Background Dengue is an increasing public health concern in Brazil. There is a need for an updated evaluation of the economic impact of dengue within the country. We undertook this multicenter study to evaluate the economic burden of dengue in Brazil. Methods We estimated the economic burden of dengue in Brazil for the years 2009 to 2013 and for the epidemic season of August 2012- September 2013. We conducted a multicenter cohort study across four endemic regions: Midwest, Goiania; Southeast, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro; Northeast: Teresina and Recife; and the North, Belem. Ambulatory or hospitalized cases with suspected or laboratory-confirmed dengue treated in both the private and public sectors were recruited. Interviews were scheduled for the convalescent period to ascertain characteristics of the dengue episode, date of first symptoms/signs and recovery, use of medical services, work/school absence, household spending (out-of-pocket expense) and income lost using a questionnaire developed for a previous cost study. We also extracted data from the patients’ medical records for hospitalized cases. Overall costs per case and cumulative costs were calculated from the public payer and societal perspectives. National cost estimations took into account cases reported in the official notification system (SINAN) with adjustment for underreporting of cases. We applied a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with 90% certainty levels (CL). Results We screened 2,223 cases, of which 2,035 (91.5%) symptomatic dengue cases were included in our study. The estimated cost for dengue for the epidemic season (2012–2013) in the societal perspective was US$ 468 million (90% CL: 349–590) or US$ 1,212 million (90% CL: 904–1,526) after adjusting for under-reporting. Considering the time series of dengue (2009–2013) the estimated cost of dengue varied from US$ 371 million (2009) to US$ 1,228 million (2013). Conclusions The economic burden

  3. Animal disease regionalization and its impact on tropical countries.

    PubMed

    Bokma, B H

    1998-06-29

    This paper reviews progress that has been made around the world in animal disease regionalization. Signatory countries of the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and other free-trade associations are currently implementing regionalization, one of the cornerstone provisions of the Uruguay Round of the GATT and the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement. Regionalization allows countries to protect the health status of their animal herds and at the same time promote their animal and animal product export markets. The implementation of regionalization by importing countries affects export markets of tropical nations. Veterinary officials of tropical countries must give regionalization due priority such that import and export trade in animals and animal products is not hindered, and the public and animal herd health are protected. PMID:9668483

  4. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Gulf of Mexico Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Flores, F.; Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Gulf of Mexico region.

  5. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Great Lakes Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts identified by the study for the Great Lakes region.

  6. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Mid-Atlantic Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.; Flores, F.; Zammit, D.; Kraemer, M.; Miles, J.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Mid-Atlantic region.

  7. Apollo 14 Impact Glasses and Clementine Data: Implications for Regional Geology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zellner, N. E. B.; Spudis, P. D.; Delano, J. W.; Whittet, D. C. B.

    2002-01-01

    Clementine color image data and analyses of 778 lunar impact glasses have been used together to suggest that the highlands of the Fra Mauro region consist of a KREEP-rich regolith overlying a feldspathic terrain. Low-KREEP impact glasses may possess a memory of impacts prior to 3.9 Ga ago. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  8. Economic Impact of Pharmacy Graduates on a Regional Economy

    PubMed Central

    Rosenman, Robert; Bozman, Carl S.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To analyze the impact of recent pharmacy graduates on a local economy. Methods Input-output analysis was applied to data from Spokane County, Washington, in 2006 and the findings were reviewed and conclusions were drawn. Results The local college of pharmacy added nearly $1 million (in 2006) directly to the local economy. New pharmacists added nearly $400,000 in direct value. However, because the graduates alleviated a shortage of pharmacists in the area, thereby avoiding both the tangible and intangible (eg, human health) economic costs of a continued shortage, the true economic impact may have been even greater. Conclusions Doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) graduates entering the workforce add substantial value, both to the local retail pharmacy industry specifically and the local economy in general. Thus, the economic impact of the pharmacy practice program training these students is also substantial. PMID:19564989

  9. Impact of Low-level Jet on Regional Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, F.

    2011-12-01

    During spring and summer seasons, the frequent occurrences of nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) over Great Plains region of the United States are widely recognized. As an important element of the low-level atmospheric circulation this LLJ effectively transports water vapor from the Gulf of Mexico, which in turn affects the development of server weather over the central United States. The LLJ has long been known to be conducive to summer rainfall and widespread flooding over the Great Plains of North America. The LLJ transports more than just moisture. Ozone episodes occur mainly during summer and are influenced by regional transport. Little is known, however,about the interrelation between the Great Plains LLJ and regional ozone transport. In this study, analysis of observational data during 1993-2006 has shown strong influence of the Great Plains LLJ on local and regional ozone distributions. Hourly ozone measurements from Air Quality System (AQS) are compared with wind fields at 850 hPa from the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). It is demonstrated that the low ozone concentrations over Texas in late spring and summer are identified with large LLJ transport of clean marine air mass from the Gulf of Mexico. Significant negative correlations exist between daily ozone concentration and LLJ index (Figure 1), suggesting that lower ozone over Texas is associated with stronger LLJ. On the other hand, positive correlations occur in the Midwest and Northeast, indicating the important role of regional transport of ozone and precursors along the pathway by the wind circulation accompanying the LLJ. In addition, the LLJ is significantly correlated with northerly flows in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the adjacent coast. This relationship explains the coexistence of low ozone concentrations in Texas and southwestern U.S during summer, both attributed to the inland transport of clean marine air. These observed ozone-LLJ patterns are well simulated by the regional CMM5

  10. Winter cover crops impact on corn production in semiarid regions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Cover crops have been proposed as a technique to increase soil health. This study examined the impact of winter brassica cover crop cocktails grown after wheat (Triticum aestivum) on corn yields; corn yield losses due to water and N stress; soil bacteria to fungi ratios; mycorrhizal markers; and ge...

  11. Redesigning Regional Accreditation: The Impact on Institutional Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Rudolph S.; Davis, Jimmy H.; Jackson, Francesina R.

    2010-01-01

    Regional accreditation, the "gold standard" of higher education institutional quality, has been around at least since the 1850s (Ewell 2008). In "U.S. Accreditation and the Future of Quality Assurance," Ewell (2008) describes four distinct periods in the history of accreditation in the United States, which range from defining a college to the…

  12. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  13. Impact of regional climate change on human health.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A

    2005-11-17

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events. PMID:16292302

  14. Impact of regional climate change on human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

    2005-11-01

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  15. KT boundary impact glasses from the Gulf of Mexico region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Claeys, Philippe; Alvarez, Walter; Smit, Jan; Hildebrand, A. R.; Montanari, Alessandro

    1993-01-01

    Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) tektite glasses occur at several sites around the Gulf of Mexico. Contrary to rumor among KTB workers, glass fragments have been found by several researchers in the base of the spherule bed at Arroyo el Mimbral in NE Mexico. The presence of green, red, and transparent glass fragments at Mimbral only, demonstrates that the Mimbral glass is not a laboratory contamination by Beloc glass. The chemistry and ages of the glass are consistent with an origin from the Chixculub impact crater in Yucatan. No evidence supports a volcanic origin for the KTB glasses. A discussion of tektite glass from the KT boundary is presented.

  16. Geodetic Impact of Aquifer On Regional Gravity Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Florsch, N.; Llubes, M.

    The time-varying water masses present in the ground acts on gravity measurements in at least three ways. Firstly, by direct attraction (Newton effect). Secondly, the weight causes a flexure which is taken into account as a free-air effect. Thirdly, the induced deformation generates a redistribution potential linked to the modification in the mass distribution. These terms can be gathered by using a Green function formalism which permits to characterize the phenomenon quantitatively by simple convolution. We show that at a under-regional scale (saying 20 km), the direct attraction effect dominates widely the others. However, when considering a quasi continental scale, an equivalent 1-meter layer induces about 55 microGal variation in which the last two effects contribute 15 microGals.

  17. Environmental and human impacts on Bangalore's regional water scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penny, G.; Srinivasan, V.; Thompson, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    The Arkavathy River Basin adjacent to Bangalore, India, faces a multitude of challenges driven by water demands from urbanization and intensification of agriculture. In the Arkavathy Basin, the two major reservoirs that historically supplied water to Bangalore now receive little to no inflow. Recent research has resulted in multiple plausible hypotheses attributing streamflow reductions in the Arkavathy to (1) increased evapotranspiration due to a boom in eucalyptus plantations and irrigated agriculture, and (2) increased deep drainage from surface soils due to long-term, excessive groundwater extraction. Current knowledge of Bangalore's water scarcity is largely based on anecdotal evidence and the sparse environmental data for this region is insufficient to definitively test these hypotheses. To bridge the gap between provincial and academic knowledge and better understand the nature of regional water resource depletion, we utilize a range of methods to integrate information across spatial and temporal scales. We use the full history of Landsat satellite imagery to approximate post-monsoon water storage in tanks and construct a spatially-explicit, historical record of surface water. We combine stable isotope mixing models, traditional field methods, and kite photography to build a deeper understanding of rainfall-runoff processes. Remote-sensing results confirm reductions of surface water in many of the tanks in the upper reaches of the watershed. We also observe an increase in surface water availability downstream of Bangalore, where imported water results in large waste flows. Field methods reveal considerable contributions of Hortonian overland flow due to soils with low hydraulic conductivity, mitigating changes in the subsurface water balance. We conclude that surface water availability is strongly related to spatial patterns of urban and agricultural water demand overlaid on a template defined by topography, soil, and climate.

  18. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  19. OVERVIEW OF THE CLIMATE IMPACT ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY (CIRAQ) PROJECT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Climate Impacts on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project will develop model-estimated impacts of global climate changes on ozone and particulate matter (PM) in direct support of the USEPA Global Change Research Program's (GCRP) national air quality assessment. EPA's urban/reg...

  20. Impacts of Regional Electricity Prices and Building Type on the Economics of Commercial Photovoltaic Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ong, S.; Campbell, C.; Clark, N.

    2012-12-01

    To identify the impacts of regional electricity prices and building type on the economics of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, 207 rate structures across 77 locations and 16 commercial building types were evaluated. Results for expected solar value are reported for each location and building type. Aggregated results are also reported, showing general trends across various impact categories.

  1. Impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate conditions in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yao; Markkanen, Tiina; Backman, Leif; Henttonen, Helena M.; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Laaksonen, Ari

    2014-05-01

    Climate response to anthropogenic land cover change happens more locally and occurs on a shorter time scale than the global warming due to increased GHGs. Over the second half of last Century, peatlands were vastly drained in Finland to stimulate forest growth for timber production. In this study, we investigate the biophysical effects of peatland forestation on near-surface climate conditions in Finland. For this, the regional climate model REMO, developed in Max Plank Institute (currently in Climate Service Center, Germany), provides an effective way. Two sets of 15-year climate simulations were done by REMO, using the historic (1920s; The 1st Finnish National Forest Inventory) and present-day (2000s; the 10th Finnish National Forest Inventory) land cover maps, respectively. The simulated surface air temperature and precipitation were then analyzed. In the most intensive peatland forestation area in Finland, the differences in monthly averaged daily mean surface air temperature show a warming effect around 0.2 to 0.3 K in February and March and reach to 0.5 K in April, whereas a slight cooling effect, less than 0.2 K, is found from May till October. Consequently, the selected snow clearance dates in model gridboxes over that area are advanced 0.5 to 4 days in the mean of 15 years. The monthly averaged precipitation only shows small differences, less than 10 mm/month, in a varied pattern in Finland from April to September. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis was conducted on the peatland forestation area with a 23% decrease in peatland and a 15% increase in forest types. 11 day running means of simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth were averaged over 15 years. Results show a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation between the surface air temperature and snow depth in snow melting period. This is because the warmer temperature caused by lower surface albedo due to more forest in snow cover period leads to a quicker and

  2. Blastopathies and microcephaly in a Chornobyl impacted region of Ukraine.

    PubMed

    Wertelecki, Wladimir; Yevtushok, Lyubov; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Wang, Bin; Sosyniuk, Zoriana; Lapchenko, Serhiy; Hobart, Holly H

    2014-08-01

    This population-based descriptive epidemiology study demonstrates that rates of conjoined twins, teratomas, neural tube defects, microcephaly, and microphthalmia in the Rivne province of Ukraine are among the highest in Europe. The province is 200 km distant from the Chornobyl site and its northern half, a region known as Polissia, is significantly polluted by ionizing radiation. The rates of neural tube defects, microcephaly and microphthalmia in Polissia are statistically significantly higher than in the rest of the province. A survey of at-birth head size showed that values were statistically smaller in males and females born in one Polissia county than among neonates born in the capital city. These observations provide clues for confirmatory and cause-effect prospective investigations. The strength of this study stems from a reliance on international standards prevalent in Europe and a decade-long population-based surveillance of congenital malformations in two distinct large populations. The limitations of this study, as those of other descriptive epidemiology investigations, is that identified cause-effect associations require further assessment by specific prospective investigations designed to address specific teratogenic factors. PMID:24666273

  3. Blastopathies and microcephaly in a Chornobyl impacted region of Ukraine

    PubMed Central

    Wertelecki, Wladimir; Yevtushok, Lyubov; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Wang, Bin; Sosyniuk, Zoriana; Lapchenko, Serhiy; Hobart, Holly H

    2014-01-01

    This population-based descriptive epidemiology study demonstrates that rates of conjoined twins, teratomas, neural tube defects, microcephaly, and microphthalmia in the Rivne province of Ukraine are among the highest in Europe. The province is 200 km distant from the Chornobyl site and its northern half, a region known as Polissia, is significantly polluted by ionizing radiation. The rates of neural tube defects, microcephaly and microphthalmia in Polissia are statistically significantly higher than in the rest of the province. A survey of at-birth head size showed that values were statistically smaller in males and females born in one Polissia county than among neonates born in the capital city. These observations provide clues for confirmatory and cause-effect prospective investigations. The strength of this study stems from a reliance on international standards prevalent in Europe and a decade-long population-based surveillance of congenital malformations in two distinct large populations. The limitations of this study, as those of other descriptive epidemiology investigations, is that identified cause-effect associations require further assessment by specific prospective investigations designed to address specific teratogenic factors. PMID:24666273

  4. SITE-SPECIFIC SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS: SEVEN CASE STUDIES IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN ENERGY STUDY REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report was prepared as part of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), a multidisciplinary policy research program. The general project focus is on the regional impacts of various alternative energy development futures in the study region, which consists of all of Kentuck...

  5. The Impact of Regional Higher Education Spaces on the Security of International Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forbes-Mewett, Helen

    2016-01-01

    The security of international students in regional higher education spaces in Australia has been overlooked. Contingency theory provides the framework for this case study to explore the organisational structure and support services relevant to a regional higher education space and how this impacts the security of international students. In-depth…

  6. Making an Economic Impact: Higher Education and the English Regions. Research Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Ursula; McLellan, Donald; McNicoll, Iain

    2010-01-01

    This is the first published study of the impact of the higher education sector on the English regions. This study presents key economic features of UK higher education in the academic year 2007/08 and those aspects of its contribution to the nine English regions that can be readily measured. The sector is analysed as a conventional industry,…

  7. Climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems in the multi-state region centered on Chicago

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This paper describes the potential impacts of warming temperatures and changing precipitation on plants wildlife, invasive species, pests and agricultural ecosystems across the multistate region centered on Chicago, Illinois. We define the region broadly to include several hundred kilometers. We c...

  8. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal (MAC) region of the United States. In order of increasing uncertainty, it is projected that sea level, temperature and streamflow will increase in the MAC region in response to higher levels o...

  9. Atmospheric Impact of Large Methane Emission in the Arctic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharyya, S.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Reagan, M. T.; Collins, W.; Elliott, S. M.; Maltrud, M. E.

    2011-12-01

    A highly potent greenhouse gas, methane, is locked in the solid phase as ice-like deposits containing a mixture of water and gas (mostly methane) called clathrates, in ocean sediments and underneath permafrost regions. Clathrates are stable under high pressure and low temperatures. Recent estimates suggest that about 1600 - 2000GtC of clathrates are present in oceans and 400GtC in Arctic permafrost (Archer et al.2009) which is about 4000 times that of current annual emissions. In a warming climate, increase in ocean temperatures could alter the geothermal gradient, which in turn could lead to dissociation of the clathrates and release of methane into the ocean and subsequently into the atmosphere as well. This could be of particular importance in the shallow part of the Arctic Ocean where the clathrates are found in depths of only 300m. In this presentation, we shall show results from our ongoing simulation of a scenario of large scale methane outgassing from clathrate dissociation due to warming ocean temperatures in the Arctic based on ocean sediment modeling. To that end we use the CESM (Community Earth System Model) version 1 with fully active coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model together with fast atmospheric chemistry module to simulate the response to increasing methane emissions in the Barents Sea, Canadian Archipelago and the Sea of Okhotsk. The simulation shows the effect these methane emissions could have on global surface methane, surface ozone, surface air temperature and other related indices. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-491764

  10. Estimating the economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization on US regions

    SciTech Connect

    Kort, J.R.

    1980-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a framework through which these regional economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization can be analyzed. Two models comprise the basis of this framework - a national input/output model and an interregional econometric model, the National-Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES). These models are used to convert projected sales of solar energy systems to gross output concepts, and to evaluate the impacts associated with these sales. Analysis is provided for the nine census regions and 50 states and the District of Columbia for the years 1980 through 1990. Impacts on major economic aggregates such as output, employment, income, and population are described. The methodology used in this study is described. The economic and demographic impacts of solar technology commercialization on US regions and states are presented. The major conclusions of the study are summarized, and direction is provided for further research. Detailed tables of regional and state solar energy expenditures and their impacts appear in the Appendix.

  11. Impacts of seasonal and regional variability in biogenic VOC emissions on surface ozone in the Pearl River Delta region, China

    SciTech Connect

    Situ, S.; Guenther, Alex B.; Wang, X. J.; Jiang, X.; Turnipseed, A.; Wu, Z.; Bai, J.; Wang, X.

    2013-12-05

    In this study, the BVOC emissions in November 2010 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China have been estimated by the latest version of a Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emission model (MEGAN v2.1). The evaluation of MEGAN performance at a representative forest site within this region indicates MEGAN can estimate BVOC emissions reasonably well in this region except overestimating isoprene emission in autumn for reasons that are discussed in this manuscript. Along with the output from MEGAN, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to estimate the impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone in the PRD region. The results show BVOC emissions increase the daytime ozone peak by *3 ppb on average, and the max hourly impacts of BVOC emissions on the daytime ozone peak is 24.8 ppb. Surface ozone mixing ratios in the central area of Guangzhou- Foshan and the western Jiangmen are most sensitive to BVOC emissions BVOCs from outside and central PRD influence the central area of Guangzhou-Foshan and the western Jiangmen significantly while BVOCs from rural PRD mainly influence the western Jiangmen. The impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone differ in different PRD cities, and the impact varies in different seasons. Foshan and Jiangmen being most affected in autumn, result in 6.0 ppb and 5.5 ppb increases in surface ozone concentrations, while Guangzhou and Huizhou become more affected in summer. Three additional experiments concerning the sensitivity of surface ozone to MEGAN input variables show that surface ozone is more sensitive to landcover change, followed by emission factors and meteorology.

  12. Evaluation of the Impact of AIRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of a long-term series of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

  13. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.; Miles, J.; Zammit, D.; Loomis, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  14. Analysis of the economic impacts from ethanol production in three New York State regions. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Batista, J.C.; Boisvert, R.N.; Kalter, R.J.

    1982-11-01

    This report describes the potential local economic impact of ethanol production industries for three multi-county regions of New York State. The study's input-output analysis suggests that investment in a small cheese whey-ethanol plant would generate far more local employment, per gallon of annual capacity, than a large corn-based plant which would rely more heavily on feedstocks from the outside region. In addition, a cheese whey ethanol plant's impact on dairies in the region would have a greater effect on the local economy than the ethanol plant itself.

  15. Impacts of Climate Policy on Regional Air Quality, Health, and Air Quality Regulatory Procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

    2011-12-01

    Both the changing climate, and the policy implemented to address climate change can impact regional air quality. We evaluate the impacts of potential selected climate policies on modeled regional air quality with respect to national pollution standards, human health and the sensitivity of health uncertainty ranges. To assess changes in air quality due to climate policy, we couple output from a regional computable general equilibrium economic model (the US Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model), with a regional air quality model (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions [CAMx]). USREP uses economic variables to determine how potential future U.S. climate policy would change emissions of regional pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, SO2, NH3, black carbon, and organic carbon) from ten emissions-heavy sectors of the economy (electricity, coal, gas, crude oil, refined oil, energy intensive industry, other industry, service, agriculture, and transportation [light duty and heavy duty]). Changes in emissions are then modeled using CAMx to determine the impact on air quality in several cities in the Northeast US. We first calculate the impact of climate policy by using regulatory procedures used to show attainment with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter. Building on previous work, we compare those results with the calculated results and uncertainties associated with human health impacts due to climate policy. This work addresses a potential disconnect between NAAQS regulatory procedures and the cost/benefit analysis required for and by the Clean Air Act.

  16. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

  17. The ionospheric impact on GPS performance in southern polar region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hong, C.-K.; Grejner-Brzezinska, D. A.; Arslan, N.; Willis, M.; Hothem, L.

    2006-01-01

    The primary objective of this paper is to present the results of the study of the effects of varying ionospheric conditions on the GPS signal tracking in the southern polar region. In the first stage of this study, the data collected by the OSU/USGS team in October-November 2003 within the TAMDEF (Transantarctic Mountains Deformation) network were used together with some IGS Antarctic stations to study the effect of severe ionospheric storms on GPS hardware. Note that TAMDEF is a joint USGS/OSU project with the primary objective of measuring crustal motion in the Transantarctic Mountains of Southern Victoria Land using GPS techniques. This study included ten Antarctic stations equipped with different dual-frequency GPS hardware, and the data were evaluated for two 24-hour periods of severe ionospheric storm (2003/10/29) and moderate ionospheric conditions (minor storm of 2003/11/11). The results of this study were presented at the LAG Assembly in Cairns, Australia (Grejner-Brzezinska et al., 2005). Additional tests, in a more controlled environment, were carried out at the US Antarctic station, McMurdo, between January 10 and February 6, 2006, under varying ionospheric conditions, where several different types of receivers were connected to the same antenna located on the rooftop of the Crary Laboratory (the primary test site). In this scenario, each antenna was subject to identical ionospheric effects during each day of the test, and no spatial decorrelation effects were present, as seen in the previous study, due to the spatial separation of the receivers tested. It should be noted, however, that no moderate or severe ionospheric storms occurred during the experiment, so, unfortunately, this type of conditions was not tested here. The test was repeated with different receivers connected to different antenna types; a total of four 5-day sessions were carried out. The following receiver types were used at the primary site: Trimble 5700, Ashtech Z-Surveyor, JNS Euro

  18. Development and application of methods for regional scaling and normalization in life-cycle impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Tolle, D.A.

    1995-12-31

    Life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is a technical, quantitative and/or qualitative method to classify, characterize, and valuate potential impacts on human health, ecosystems, and natural resources, based on the environmental burdens identified in a life-cycle inventory. Research described here for two LCIAs included development and application of regional scaling methods for the following 5 of 14 relevant impact categories: Suspended (PM{sub 10}) particulate effects, water use, acid deposition, smog creation, and eutrophication. Normalization is recommended after characterization, because aggregated sums per impact category need to be expressed in equivalent terms before assigning valuation weight factors. The normalization approach described here involves determination of factors that represent the total, geographically-relevant impact for a given impact category. The goal for the 14 normalization factors developed and applied to two LCIAS, was to make them scientifically defensible, while utilizing existing data on emission or resource extraction quantities for three spatial perspectives. Data on the total environmental burden for each inventory item under a given impact category were obtained for normalization factors. Since the boundaries of the two LCIAs were primarily in the US, the data for the regional or local impact category perspectives were restricted to appropriate areas in the US. Normalization factors were developed and applied in the two LCIAs for 11 impact categories involving chemical emissions, water use, solid waste volume, and resource extraction/production land use.

  19. Proceedings of the workshop on regionalization of aquatic impacts using the Adirondacks as a case study

    SciTech Connect

    Dailey, N.S.; Olson, R.J.

    1987-01-01

    Alternative approaches to applying aquatic data from specific sites and surveys to additional areas within a region or to broader regions for analysis and assessment were examined. Studies conducted within the Adirondack Region of New York provided the principal information base for evaluating regional extrapolation. Primary data bases for the Adirondacks were reviewed and statistical and process modeling approaches were discussed as methodologies for regionalization. Small working groups of data analysts and modelers developed approaches moving toward regional extrapolation of Adirondack data sets, based on either estimating current impacts or predicting future impacts. This report outlines suggested approaches, recommendations for future research, and existing data needs. The discussions emphasized (1) the lack of information on the extent and mechanics of aquatic impacts in the Adirondack Region and across the United States as a whole, (2) the need for increased information exchanges, and (3) the need to develop modeling approaches for regionalization. Recommended approaches included the development of a classification system for surface waters and watersheds, based on select criteria and the development of second generation models which would incorporate select features from both simple and complex models.

  20. ENERGY FROM THE WEST: IMPACT ANALYSIS REPORT. VOLUME II: SITE-SPECIFIC AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document reports the results of impact analyses conducted as a part of a three-year technology assessment of the development of six energy resources (coal, geothermal, natural gas, oil, oil shale and uranium) in eight western states (Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, N...

  1. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  2. Impact of emissions from the Los Angeles port region on San Diego air quality during regional transport events.

    PubMed

    Ault, Andrew P; Moore, Meagan J; Furutani, Hiroshi; Prather, Kimberly A

    2009-05-15

    Oceangoing ships emit an estimated 1.2-1.6 million metric tons (Tg) of PM10 per year and represent a significant source of air pollution to coastal communities. As shown herein, ship and other emissions near the Los Angeles and Long Beach Port region strongly influence air pollution levels in the San Diego area. During time periods with regional transport, atmospheric aerosol measurements in La Jolla, California show an increase in 0.5-1 microm sized single particles with unique signatures including soot, metals (i.e., vanadium, iron, and nickel), sulfate, and nitrate. These particles are attributed to primary emissions from residual oil sourcessuch as ships and refineries, as well as traffic in the port region, and secondary processing during transport. During regional transport events, particulate matter concentrations were 2-4 times higher than typical average concentrations from local sources, indicating the health, environmental, and climate impacts from these emission sources must be taken into consideration in the San Diego region. Unless significant regulations are imposed on shipping-related activities, these emission sources will become even more important to California air quality as cars and truck emissions undergo further regulations and residual oil sources such as shipping continue to expand. PMID:19544846

  3. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Southeast Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2013-07-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts identified by the study for the Southeast (defined here as Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia).

  4. Assessing climate impacts of planning policies-An estimation for the urban region of Leipzig (Germany)

    SciTech Connect

    Schwarz, Nina Bauer, Annette Haase, Dagmar

    2011-03-15

    Local climate regulation by urban green areas is an important urban ecosystem service, as it reduces the extent of the urban heat island and therefore enhances quality of life. Local and regional planning policies can control land use changes in an urban region, which in turn alter local climate regulation. Thus, this paper describes a method for estimating the impacts of current land uses as well as local and regional planning policies on local climate regulation, using evapotranspiration and land surface emissivity as indicators. This method can be used by practitioners to evaluate their policies. An application of this method is demonstrated for the case study Leipzig (Germany). Results for six selected planning policies in Leipzig indicate their distinct impacts on climate regulation and especially the role of their spatial extent. The proposed method was found to easily produce a qualitative assessment of impacts of planning policies on climate regulation.

  5. Probing the severe haze pollution in three typical regions of China: Characteristics, sources and regional impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Qiongzhen; Zhuang, Guoshun; Huang, Kan; Liu, Tingna; Deng, Congrui; Xu, Jian; Lin, Yanfen; Guo, Zhigang; Chen, Ying; Fu, Qingyan; Fu, Joshua S.; Chen, Jiakuan

    2015-11-01

    PM2.5 with its major chemical components were measured and analyzed during a concurrent haze in Jan. 1-19, 2013 at three sites (Shanghai, Beijing, and Huaniao, a remote isle over the East China Sea) to probe the sources and formation process of such a severe haze over three typical regions in China. The mean PM2.5 concentrations during the severely polluted days reached 180.8 μg m-3, 299.2 μg m-3, and 131.1 μg m-3 in Shanghai, Beijing, and the Huaniao Isle, respectively. The mass ratio of the sum of SO42- , NO3-, and NH4+ to PM2.5 were over 1/3 during the polluted days at all the three sites. Promoted gas-to-particle transformations from acidic SO2 and NOx to SO42- and NO3- under high relative humidity conditions played a major role in the formation of this severe haze. Significant contribution of traffic emissions to the haze formation over China was suggested to be one of the major sources in triggering the heavy haze over China. Specifically, there was a more contribution from traffic in Shanghai than in Beijing as indicated by the higher NO3-/SO42- ratio in Shanghai. In Beijing, the enhanced coal combustion for winter heating along with the traffic emission was suggested to be the major two sources of this haze episode. Typical pollution elements such as As, Cd, and Pb as well as Cl- and K+ were substantially enhanced in the severely polluted days. Although the Huaniao Isle is located in the remote oceanic area as a background site, pollution elements, secondary ions, and K+ all increased substantially during the polluted days. As visualized by the backward air mass trajectories associated with the potential source region identification technique, air masses that passed over Northern China and Yangtze River Delta evidently invaded the offshore areas of Eastern China. The ratios of As, Cd, Cu, Zn, and K+ to Al at the Huaniao Isle were closer to those of Beijing rather than Shanghai, indicating that the marine aerosol over the East China Sea had been

  6. Impact of cross-regional differences on color rendition evaluation of white light sources.

    PubMed

    Smet, Kevin A G; Hanselaer, Peter

    2015-11-16

    In a study, involving laboratories from seven geographic regions, the memory colors of eleven familiar objects were investigated. Based on that study, one global and seven regional memory color rendition indices (MCRIs) are created and the impact of cross-regional differences on the evaluation of color rendition was investigated. A first analysis focuses on the impact on MCRI index values by comparing the regional index values, calculated for 401 light sources, with those of the global index. A second analysis examines the impact on predictive performance in terms of the visual appreciation and naturalness of rendered objects colors as evaluated in respectively twenty-one and fifteen experiments published in literature. Both analyses show that, although there are small differences in absolute level of color rendition, the regional metrics are generally comparable in terms of predicting light source rank order and correlation with visual data. Therefore, ànd considering between-region variability to be smaller than or of the same size as the within-region variability, a globally valid memory color rendition metric can be proposed without introducing substantial errors. Finally, Smet's Rm index, obtained using real objects, is suggested as a good approximation to that globally valid metric. PMID:26698502

  7. Evaluation of GCMs in the context of regional predictive climate impact studies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kokorev, Vasily; Anisimov, Oleg

    2016-04-01

    Significant improvements in the structure, complexity, and general performance of earth system models (ESMs) have been made in the recent decade. Despite these efforts, the range of uncertainty in predicting regional climate impacts remains large. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, there is an intrinsic conflict between the local and regional scales of climate impacts and adaptation strategies, on one hand, and larger scales, at which ESMs demonstrate better performance, on the other. Secondly, there is a growing understanding that majority of the impacts involve thresholds, and are thus driven by extreme climate events, whereas accent in climate projections is conventionally made on gradual changes in means. In this study we assess the uncertainty in projecting extreme climatic events within a region-specific and process-oriented context by examining the skills and ranking of ESMs. We developed a synthetic regionalization of Northern Eurasia that accounts for the spatial features of modern climatic changes and major environmental and socio-economical impacts. Elements of such fragmentation could be considered as natural focus regions that bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in climate-impacts studies and patterns of climate change simulated by ESMs. In each focus region we selected several target meteorological variables that govern the key regional impacts, and examined the ability of the models to replicate their seasonal and annual means and trends by testing them against observations. We performed a similar evaluation with regard to extremes and statistics of the target variables. And lastly, we used the results of these analyses to select sets of models that demonstrate the best performance at selected focus regions with regard to selected sets of target meteorological parameters. Ultimately, we ranked the models according to their skills, identified top-end models that "better than average" reproduce the behavior of climatic parameters, and

  8. Correlation of lunar far-side magnetized regions with ringed impact basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, K.A.; Wilhelms, D.E.

    1979-01-01

    By the method of electron reflection, we have identified seven well-defined magnetized regions in the equatorial belt of the lunar far side sampled by the Apollo 16 Particles and Fields subsatellite. Most of these surface magnetic fields lie within one basin radius from the rim of a ringed impact basin, where thick deposits of basin ejecta are observed or inferred. The strongest of the seven magnetic features is linear, at least 250 km long, and radial to the Freundlich-Sharonov basin. The apparent correlation with basin ejecta suggests some form of impact origin for the observed permanently magnetized regions. ?? 1979.

  9. Quantifying some of the impacts of dust and other aerosol on the Caspian Sea region using a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elguindi, N.; Solmon, F.; Turuncoglu, U.

    2016-01-01

    The Central Asian deserts are a major dust source region that can potentially have a substantial impact on the Caspian Sea. Despite major advances in the modeling and prediction of the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) during recent years, no study to date has investigated the climatic effects of dust on the hydrological budget of the Sea. In this study, we utilize a regional climate model coupled to an interactive emission and transport scheme to simulate the effects of dust and other aerosol in the Caspian region. First, we present a validation of the model using a variety of AOD satellite observations as well as a climatology of dust storms. Compared to the range of satellite estimates, the model's AOD climatology is closer to the lower end of the observations, and exhibit a significant underestimation over the clay deserts found on the Ustyurt plateau and north of the Aral Sea. Nevertheless, we find encouraging results in that the model is able to reproduce the gradient of increasing AOD intensity from the middle to the southern part of the Sea. Spatially, the model reproduces reasonably well the observed climatological dust storm frequency maps which show that the most intense dust source regions to be found in the Karakum desert in Turkmenistan and Kyzylkum desert in Uzbekistan east of the Aral Sea. In the second part of this study we explore some impacts of dust and other aerosol on the climatology of the region and on the energy budget of the Sea. We find that the overall direct radiative effects of dust and other aerosol reduce the amount of shortwave radiation reaching the surface, dampen boundary layer turbulence and inhibit convection over the region. We also show that by including dust and aerosol in our simulation, we are able to reduce the positive biases in sea surface temperatures by 1-2 °C. Evaporation is also considerably reduced, resulting in an average difference of approximately 10 mm year^{-1} in the Sea's hydrological budget which is substantial

  10. Optimizing biofuel feedstock production based on impacts on regional water resources and quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demissie, Y. K.; Yan, E.; Wu, M.

    2012-12-01

    The impact of water pollution on surface water has been of increasing concern as more land and agricultural residues are used for biofuel feedstock production. This study presents the potential impacts of different feedstock production scenarios on regional water resources and quality and further optimize the production using stream discharge and water quality as additional constrains. An integrated watershed hydrology model and optimization algorithm was developed to simulate stream water quality and optimize the change in land use and residue management on the Ohio River Basin, which currently contributes the majority of the flow volume and pollutions of nutrient and sediment to the Mississippi River and Gulf of Mexico. Various plausible future biofuel feedstock production scenarios, including the projection by the DOE Billion Ton Study, were considered to assess the potential impacts on the region and local streams discharges, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, sediment erosion, nitrogen and phosphorus loadings. Depending on the associated land use and management changes for biofuel, the resulted impacts on the region water resources and stream qualities are found to be mixed with considerable spatial and temporal variations, thus providing an opportunity to further optimize the biomass production by taking into account its potential implication on the basin water resources and quality. An evolution-based optimization technique was applied to optimize the feedstock production by considering their associated impacts on water. The results confirm the capacity to meet both the biofuel and water resources and quality demands.

  11. 75 FR 51477 - Notice of Availability of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Alamogordo Regional...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-20

    ...In accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 as amended (NEPA), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has prepared a Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Alamogordo Regional Water Supply Project and by this notice is announcing the opening of the comment...

  12. Incorporating the effect of gas in modelling the impact of CBM extraction on regional groundwater systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herckenrath, Daan; Doherty, John; Panday, Sorab

    2015-04-01

    Production of Coalbed Methane (CBM) requires extraction of large quantities of groundwater. To date, standard groundwater flow simulators have mostly been used to assess the impact of this extraction on regional groundwater systems. Recent research has demonstrated that predictions of regional impact assessment made by such models may be seriously compromised unless account is taken of the presence of a gas phase near extraction wells. At the same time, CBM impact assessment must accommodate the traditional requirements of regional groundwater modelling. These include representation of surficial groundwater processes and up-scaled rock properties as well as the need for calibration and predictive uncertainty quantification. The study documented herein (1) quantifies errors in regional drawdown predictions incurred through neglect of the presence of a gas phase near CBM extraction centres, and (2) evaluates the extent to which these errors can be mitigated by simulating near-well desaturation using a modified Richards equation formulation within a standard groundwater flow simulator. Two synthetic examples are provided to quantify the impact of the gas phase and verify the proposed modelling approach (implemented in MODFLOW-USG) against rigorous multiphase flow simulations (undertaken using ECLIPSE)

  13. EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY OF REGIONAL AIR QUALITY OVER THE UNITED STATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The United States has established a series of standards for criteria and other air pollutants to safeguard air quality to protect human health and the environment. The Climate Impact on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project, a collaborative research effort involving multiple Fede...

  14. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON UV EXPOSURE IN COASTAL SHELF REGIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global change has a variety of impact on UV exposure in coastal shelf regions of the southeastern United States. Changes in solar UV reaching the water surface have been caused by human alterations of atmospheric composition such as depletion of the ozone layer.

  15. 77 FR 59703 - Environmental Impact Statement; Taos Regional Airport, Taos, NM

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-28

    ...) for the ``Taos Regional Airport, Airport Layout Plan Improvements'' Environmental Impact Statement... requested the FAA to approve revisions to its Airport Layout Plan (ALP) to reflect and allow construction of... Layout Plan (ALP) and provide funding for a proposed new Runway 12/30 measuring 8,600- foot by...

  16. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mondal, A.; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  17. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change: lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-04-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada—the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a "family of integrators" into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies.

  18. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koks, E. E.; Carrera, L.; Jonkeren, O.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Husby, T. G.; Thissen, M.; Standardi, G.; Mysiak, J.

    2015-11-01

    A large variety of models has been developed to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are Input-Output (IO) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing numbers of scholars has developed hybrid approaches; one that combines both or either of them in combination with non-economic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitates better decisions and policy making. Therefore, in this study we analyze one specific case study, using three regional models: two hybrid IO models and a regionally calibrated version of a global CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po-river basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of seven between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.

  19. Major Impact of Fleet Renewal Over Airports Located in the Most Important Region of Brazil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maters, Rafael Waltz; deRoodeTorres, Roberta; Santo, Respicio A. Espirito, Jr.

    2003-01-01

    The present article discusses and analyses the major impacts of the Brazilian carriers fleet renewal regarding Brazilian airport infrastructure in the most important region of the country, the Southeast (SE). A brief historical overview of the country's airline fleet will be presented, demonstrating the need for its renewal (m fact, Brazilian carriers started a major fleet renewal program m the last five years), while analyzing the periods in which a new breed of aircraft was put into service by the major carriers operating in the SE region. The trend of operating the classic regional jets plus the forthcoming entry into service of the "large regional jets" (LRJ, 70-115 seaters) in several point-to-point routes are presented along with the country's carriers" reality of operating these former aircraft in several high-capacity and medium-range routes. The article will focus on the ability of four of the major Southeast's airports to cope with the fleet modernization, mainly due to the fact that the region studied is the most socioeconomic developed, by far, with the largest demand for air transportation, thus making the impacts much more perceptible for the communities and the airport management involved. With the emergence of these impacts, several new projects and investments are being discussed and pushed forward, despite budgetary constrains being a reality in almost every Brazilian city, even in the SE region. In view of this, the paper presents how the general planning could be carried out in order to adapt the airports' infrastructures in function of the proposed (and in some cases, necessary) fleet renewal. Ultimately, we will present the present picture and two future scenarios m order to determine the level of service in the existent passenger terminal facilities in the wake of the possible operation of several new aircraft. Keywords: Airline fleet planning, Airport planning, Regional development, Regional Jets.

  20. Quantification of regional radiative impacts and climate effects of tropical fire aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tosca, M. G.; Zender, C. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2011-12-01

    Regionally expansive smoke clouds originating from deforestation fires in Indonesia can modify local precipitation patterns via direct aerosol scattering and absorption of solar radiation (Tosca et al., 2010). Here we quantify the regional climate impacts of fire aerosols for three tropical burning regions that together account for about 70% of global annual fire emissions. We use the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5) coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM) embedded within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In addition to direct aerosol radiative effects, CAM5 also quantifies indirect, semi-direct and cloud microphysical aerosol effects. Climate impacts are determined using regionally adjusted emissions data that produce realistic aerosol optical depths in CAM5. We first analyzed a single 12-year transient simulation (1996-2007) forced with unadjusted emissions estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database, version 3 (GFEDv3) and compared the resulting aerosol optical depths (AODs) for 4 different burning regions (equatorial Asia, southern Africa, South America and boreal North America) to observed MISR and MODIS AODs for the same period. Based on this analysis we adjusted emissions for each burning region between 150 and 300% and forced a second simulation with the regionally adjusted emissions. Improved AODs from this simulation are compared to AERONET observations available at 15 stations throughout the tropics. We present here two transient simulations--one with the adjusted fire emissions and one without fires--to quantify the cumulative fire aerosol climate impact for three major tropical burning regions (equatorial Asia, southern Africa and South America). Specifically, we quantify smoke effects on radiation, precipitation, and temperature. References Tosca, M.G., J.T. Randerson, C.S. Zender, M.G. Flanner and P.J. Rasch (2010), Do biomass burning aerosols intensify drought in equatorial Asia during El Nino?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 3515

  1. Regional aspects of climate change impacts and related adaptation options in European agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eitzinger, J.

    2009-09-01

    Through a change in climatic conditions and variability, for example, extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) are likely to occur more frequently in different spatial and time scales in future. Since agriculture is one the man' activities more dependant on weather behaviour, the impact on risks of agricultural production is indeed one of the most important issues in climate change assessments. Therefore an early recognition of risks and implementation of adaptation strategies is crucial as anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Results of climate change impact and adaptation studies often show considerable different results, depending on the spatial scale of regionalisation. However, for a decision maker, only a high spatial resolution of related study results are useful as it can represent local conditions and its spatial variablitiy much better. Therefore the ADAGIO project (adagio-eu.org) was designed to focus on regional studies in order to uncover regional specific problems. In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientifc studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilites and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat is the main factor having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the mediterranean region, but also in the Central and Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. An important aspect is also that there are increasing regional differences in the crop production potential in Europe due to climate change and that

  2. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

    PubMed

    Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap. PMID:25803240

  3. Indigenous vegetation burning practices and their impact on the climate of the northern Australian monsoon region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyrwoll, K.-H.; McRobie, F. H.; Notaro, M.; Chen, G.

    2013-08-01

    Here we pose the question: was there a downturn in summer monsoon precipitation over northern Australia due to Aboriginal vegetation practices over prehistoric time scales? In answering this question we consider the results from a global climate model incorporating ocean, land, ice, atmosphere and vegetation interactions, reducing the total vegetation cover over northern Australia by 20% to simulate the effects of burning. The results suggest that burning forests and woodlands in the monsoon region of Australia led to a shift in the regional climate, with a delayed monsoon onset and reduced precipitation in the months preceding the "full" monsoon. We place these results in a global context, drawing on model results from five other monsoon regions, and note that although the precipitation response is highly varied, there is a general but region specific climate response to reduced vegetation cover in all cases. Our findings lead us to conclude that large-scale vegetation modification over millennial time-scales due to indigenous burning practices, would have had significant impacts on regional climates. With this conclusion comes the need to recognise that the Anthropocene saw the impact of humans on regional-scale climates and hydrologies at much earlier times than generally recognized.

  4. Regional flood impact assessment based on local land use patterns and sample damage records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Köstl, Mario

    2011-10-01

    Increasing land consumption and land demand particularly in mountainous regions entail further expansion of settlements to known hazard-prone areas. Potential impacts as well as regionally defined levels of 'acceptable risk' are often not transparently communicated and residual risks are not perceived by the public. Analysing past events and assessing regional damage potentials can help planners on all levels to improve comprehensive and sustainable risk management. In this letter, a geospatial and statistical approach to regional damage cost assessment is presented, integrating information on actual conditions in terms of land use disparities and recorded damage data from a documented severe flooding event. In a first step building objects are categorized according to their function and use. Tabular company information is linked to the building model via geocoded postal address data, enabling classification of building types in terms of predominant uses. For the disaster impact assessment the flood plain is delineated based on post-disaster aerial imagery and a digital terrain model distinguishing areas of long and short term flooding. Finally, four regional damage cost assessment scenarios on different levels of detail are calculated. The damage cost projection relies on available sample building-level damage records, allowing rough damage averaging for distinct building uses. Results confirm that consideration of local land use patterns is essential for optimizing regional damage cost projections.

  5. The Impact of Ambulance and Patient Diversion on Crowdedness of Multiple Emergency Departments in a Region.

    PubMed

    Kao, Chung-Yao; Yang, Jhen-Ci; Lin, Chih-Hao

    2015-01-01

    Emergency department (ED) overcrowding threatens healthcare quality. Ambulance diversion (AD) may relieve ED overcrowding; however, diverting patients from an overcrowded ED will load neighboring EDs with more patients and may result in regional overcrowding. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of different diversion strategies on the crowdedness of multiple EDs in a region. The importance of regional coordination was also explored. A queuing model for patient flow was utilized to develop a computer program for simulating AD among EDs in a region. Key parameters, including patient arrival rates, percentages of patients of different acuity levels, percentage of patients transported by ambulance, and total resources of EDs, were assigned based on real data. The crowdedness indices of each ED and the regional crowdedness index were assessed to evaluate the effectiveness of various AD strategies. Diverting patients equally to all other EDs in a region is better than diverting patients only to EDs with more resources. The effect of diverting all ambulance-transported patients is similar to that of diverting only low-acuity patients. To minimize regional crowdedness, ambulatory patients should be sent to proper EDs when AD is initiated. Based on a queuing model with parameters calibrated by real data, patient flows of EDs in a region were simulated by a computer program. From a regional point of view, randomly diverting ambulatory patients provides almost no benefit. With regards to minimizing the crowdedness of the whole region, the most promising strategy is to divert all patients equally to all other EDs that are not already crowded. This result implies that communication and coordination among regional hospitals are crucial to relieve overall crowdedness. A regional coordination center may prioritize AD strategies to optimize ED utility. PMID:26659589

  6. The Impact of Ambulance and Patient Diversion on Crowdedness of Multiple Emergency Departments in a Region

    PubMed Central

    Kao, Chung-Yao; Yang, Jhen-Ci; Lin, Chih-Hao

    2015-01-01

    Emergency department (ED) overcrowding threatens healthcare quality. Ambulance diversion (AD) may relieve ED overcrowding; however, diverting patients from an overcrowded ED will load neighboring EDs with more patients and may result in regional overcrowding. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of different diversion strategies on the crowdedness of multiple EDs in a region. The importance of regional coordination was also explored. A queuing model for patient flow was utilized to develop a computer program for simulating AD among EDs in a region. Key parameters, including patient arrival rates, percentages of patients of different acuity levels, percentage of patients transported by ambulance, and total resources of EDs, were assigned based on real data. The crowdedness indices of each ED and the regional crowdedness index were assessed to evaluate the effectiveness of various AD strategies. Diverting patients equally to all other EDs in a region is better than diverting patients only to EDs with more resources. The effect of diverting all ambulance-transported patients is similar to that of diverting only low-acuity patients. To minimize regional crowdedness, ambulatory patients should be sent to proper EDs when AD is initiated. Based on a queuing model with parameters calibrated by real data, patient flows of EDs in a region were simulated by a computer program. From a regional point of view, randomly diverting ambulatory patients provides almost no benefit. With regards to minimizing the crowdedness of the whole region, the most promising strategy is to divert all patients equally to all other EDs that are not already crowded. This result implies that communication and coordination among regional hospitals are crucial to relieve overall crowdedness. A regional coordination center may prioritize AD strategies to optimize ED utility. PMID:26659589

  7. An analysis of ENSO impact on global extreme rainfall using a Bayesian regional model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Xun; Renard, Benjamin; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth; Lang, Michel

    2013-04-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on rainfall and streamflow have been extensively reported in the Pacific region, but also in Europe and Africa. In this study, we apply a non-stationary regional extreme value model to a new global database of 11,588 high-quality sites worldwide to describe the global pattern of ENSO impact on extreme rainfall. The data are available at monthly intervals, and we focus on approximately 7000 observation sites which have series longer than 40 years. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of ENSO, is used as a covariate. Parameters are estimated with an MCMC method under the Bayesian framework, which allows quantifying the ENSO impact and estimating the associated credibility intervals. Three aspects are mainly considered in this study. One is to identify the regions where extreme rainfall is significantly influenced by ENSO. Another is to evaluate the extent to which ENSO exhibits asymmetric impacts between the El Niño and La Niña phases. The third aspect is to describe the spatial pattern of the impact intensity.

  8. Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct). A software tool for rapidly approximating economic impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Loose, Verne William; Starks, Shirley J.; Ellebracht, Lory A.

    2011-07-01

    This paper describes the Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct) analysis tool that has been in use for the last 5 years to rapidly estimate approximate economic impacts for disruptions due to natural or manmade events. It is based on and derived from the well-known and extensively documented input-output modeling technique initially presented by Leontief and more recently further developed by numerous contributors. REAcct provides county-level economic impact estimates in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for any area in the United States. The process for using REAcct incorporates geospatial computational tools and site-specific economic data, permitting the identification of geographic impact zones that allow differential magnitude and duration estimates to be specified for regions affected by a simulated or actual event. Using these data as input to REAcct, the number of employees for 39 directly affected economic sectors (including 37 industry production sectors and 2 government sectors) are calculated and aggregated to provide direct impact estimates. Indirect estimates are then calculated using Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. The interdependent relationships between critical infrastructures, industries, and markets are captured by the relationships embedded in the inputoutput modeling structure.

  9. Economic Impact of HIV and Antiretroviral Therapy on Education Supply in High Prevalence Regions

    PubMed Central

    Risley, Claire L.; Drake, Lesley J.; Bundy, Donald A. P.

    2012-01-01

    Background We set out to estimate, for the three geographical regions with the highest HIV prevalence, (sub-Saharan Africa [SSA], the Caribbean and the Greater Mekong sub-region of East Asia), the human resource and economic impact of HIV on the supply of education from 2008 to 2015, the target date for the achievement of Education For All (EFA), contrasting the continuation of access to care, support and Antiretroviral therapy (ART) to the scenario of universal access. Methodology/Principal Findings A costed mathematical model of the impact of HIV and ART on teacher recruitment, mortality and absenteeism (Ed-SIDA) was run using best available data for 58 countries, and results aggregated by region. It was estimated that (1) The impact of HIV on teacher supply is sufficient to derail efforts to achieve EFA in several countries and universal access can mitigate this. (2) In SSA, the 2008 costs to education of HIV were about half of those estimated in 2002. Providing universal access for teachers in SSA is cost-effective on education returns alone and provides a return of $3.99 on the dollar. (3) The impacts on education in the hyperendemic countries in Southern Africa will continue to increase to 2015 from its 2008 level, already the highest in the world. (4) If treatment roll-out is successful, numbers of HIV positive teachers are set to increase in all the regions studied. Conclusions/Significance The return on investing in care and support is also greater in those areas with highest impact. SSA requires increased investment in teacher support, testing and particularly ART if it is to achieve EFA. The situation for teachers in the Caribbean and East Asia is similar but on a smaller scale proportionate to the lower levels of infection and greater existing access to care and support. PMID:23173030

  10. Allowable CO2 emissions based on projected changes in regional extremes and related impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus; Pitman, Andy; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted 2°C and 1.5° limits, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing CO2 emissions. Translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because they resonate better with national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean. Linking cumulative CO2 emission targets to regional consequences, such as changing climate extremes, would be of particular benefit for political decision making, both in the context of climate negotiations and adaptation.

  11. Regional impacts of oil and gas development on ozone formation in the western United States.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Marco A; Barna, Michael G; Moore, Tom

    2009-09-01

    The Intermountain West is currently experiencing increased growth in oil and gas production, which has the potential to affect the visibility and air quality of various Class I areas in the region. The following work presents an analysis of these impacts using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). CAMx is a state-of-the-science, "one-atmosphere" Eulerian photochemical dispersion model that has been widely used in the assessment of gaseous and particulate air pollution (ozone, fine [PM2.5], and coarse [PM10] particulate matter). Meteorology and emissions inventories developed by the Western Regional Air Partnership Regional Modeling Center for regional haze analysis and planning are used to establish an ozone baseline simulation for the year 2002. The predicted range of values for ozone in the national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States is then evaluated with available observations from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET). This evaluation demonstrates the model's suitability for subsequent planning, sensitivity, and emissions control strategy modeling. Once the ozone baseline simulation has been established, an analysis of the model results is performed to investigate the regional impacts of oil and gas development on the ozone concentrations that affect the air quality of Class I areas. Results indicate that the maximum 8-hr ozone enhancement from oil and gas (9.6 parts per billion [ppb]) could affect southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Class I areas in this region that are likely to be impacted by increased ozone include Mesa Verde National Park and Weminuche Wilderness Area in Colorado and San Pedro Parks Wilderness Area, Bandelier Wilderness Area, Pecos Wilderness Area, and Wheeler Peak Wilderness Area in New Mexico. PMID:19785277

  12. Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2013-04-01

    From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

  13. Wintertime Air Quality Impacts from Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Operations in the Bakken Formation Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evanoski-Cole, Ashley; Sive, Barkley; Zhou, Yong; Prenni, Anthony; Schurman, Misha; Day, Derek; Sullivan, Amy; Li, Yi; Hand, Jenny; Gebhart, Kristi; Schichtel, Bret; Collett, Jeffrey

    2016-04-01

    Oil and natural gas extraction has dramatically increased in the last decade in the United States due to the increased use of unconventional drilling techniques which include horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The impact of these drilling activities on local and regional air quality in oil and gas basins across the country are still relatively unknown, especially in recently developed basins such as the Bakken shale formation. This study is the first to conduct a comprehensive characterization of the regional air quality in the Bakken region. The Bakken shale formation, part of the Williston basin, is located in North Dakota and Montana in the United States and Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada. Oil and gas drilling operations can impact air quality in a variety of ways, including the generation of atmospheric particulate matter (PM), hazardous air pollutants, ozone, and greenhouse gas emissions. During the winter especially, PM formation can be enhanced and meteorological conditions can favor increased concentrations of PM and other pollutants. In this study, ground-based measurements throughout the Bakken region in North Dakota and Montana were collected over two consecutive winters to gain regional trends of air quality impacts from the oil and gas drilling activities. Additionally, one field site had a comprehensive suite of instrumentation operating at high time resolution to gain detailed characterization of the atmospheric composition. Measurements included organic carbon and black carbon concentrations in PM, the characterization of inorganic PM, inorganic gases, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precipitation and meteorology. These elevated PM episodes were further investigated using the local meteorological conditions and regional transport patterns. Episodes of elevated concentrations of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide were also detected. The VOC concentrations were analyzed and specific VOCs that are known oil and gas tracers were used

  14. Inductive analysis about the impact of climate warming on regional geomorphic evolution in arid area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anayit, Mattohti; Abulizi, Mailiya

    2016-04-01

    Climate change on the surface of earth will produce a chain reaction among so many global natural environmental elements. Namely, all the issues will be affected by the climate change, just like the regional water environment, formation and development of landscape, plants and animals living environment, the survival of microorganisms, the human economic environment and health, and the whole social environment changes at well. But because of slow frequency of climate change and it is volatility change, its influence on other factors and the overall environmental performance is not obvious, and its reflection performs slowly. Using regional weather data, we calculated qualitatively and quantitatively and did analysis the impact of climate warming on Xinjiang (a province of China) geomorphic evolution elements, including the ground weather, erosion rate, collapse change, landslide occurrences changes and impact debris flow, combining the field survey and indoor test methods. Key words: climate change; the geomorphic induction; landscape change in river basin; Xinjiang

  15. Investigation and Development of Data-Driven D-Region Model for HF Systems Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D.; Sojka, J. J.; Hunsucker, R. D.

    2002-01-01

    Space Environment Corporation (SEC) and RP Consultants (RPC) are to develop and validate a weather-capable D region model for making High Frequency (HF) absorption predictions in support of the HF communications and radar communities. The weather-capable model will assimilate solar and earth space observations from NASA satellites. The model will account for solar-induced impacts on HF absorption, including X-rays, Solar Proton Events (SPE's), and auroral precipitation. The work plan includes: I . Optimize D-region model to quickly obtain ion and electron densities for proper HF absorption calculations. 2. Develop indices-driven modules for D-region ionization sources for low, mid, & high latitudes including X-rays, cosmic rays, auroral precipitation, & solar protons. (Note: solar spectrum & auroral modules already exist). 3. Setup low-cost monitors of existing HF beacons and add one single-frequency beacon. 4. Use PENEX HF-link database with HF monitor data to validate D-region/HF absorption model using climatological ionization drivers. 5. Develop algorithms to assimilate NASA satellite data of solar, interplanetary, and auroral observations into ionization source modules. 6. Use PENEX HF-link & HF-beacon data for skill score comparison of assimilation versus climatological D-region/HF absorption model. Only some satellites are available for the PENEX time period, thus, HF-beacon data is necessary. 7. Use HF beacon monitors to develop HF-link data assimilation algorithms for regional improvement to the D-region/HF absorption model.

  16. Collaborative experiment on intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models for climate impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred

    2015-04-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) is a community-driven modelling effort bringing together impact modellers across sectors and scales to create more consistent and comprehensive projections of the impacts of climate change. This project is aimed in establishing a long-term, systematic, cross-sectoral impact model intercomparison process, including comparison of climate change impacts for multiple sectors using ensemble of climate scenarios and applying global and regional impact models. The project is coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. An overview of this project and collaborative experiment related to the regional-scale water sector model intercomparison in ISI-MIP will be presented. The regional-scale water sector modelling includes eleven models applied to eleven large-scale river basins worldwide (not every model is applied to every of eleven basins). In total, 60-65 model applications will be done by several collaborating groups from different Institutions. The modelling tools include: ECOMAG, HBV, HBV-light, HYPE, LASCAM, LISFLOOD, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP. Eleven river basins chosen for the model application and intercomparison are: the Rhine and Tagus in Europe, the Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, the Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, the Upper Mississippi and Upper Amazon in America, and the Murray-Darling in Australia. Their drainage areas range between 67,490 km2 (Tagus) to 2,460,000 km2 (Lena). Data from global and regional datasets are used for the model setup and calibration. The model calibration and validation was done using the WATCH climate data for all cases, also checking the representation of high and low percentiles of river discharge. For most of the basins, also intermediate gauge stations were included in the calibration. The calibration and validation results, evaluated with the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS), are mostly

  17. Regionalization and Evaluation of Impacts of Climate Change on Mexican Coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nava-Sanchez, E. H.; Murillo-Jimenez, J. M.; Godinez-Orta, L.; Morales-Perez, R. A.

    2009-04-01

    Mexican coasts exhibit a high variety of geoforms and processes, and consequently, are exposed to a variability of types and impact levels of geological hazards. Tropical cyclones are the most devastating hazards for the Mexican coast, although, impact levels are higher on the southern coast of both Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The second dangerous geo-hazards are earthquakes and tsunamis, which affect all Pacific coast, causing more damage the earthquakes generated in the Cocos Trench. For seismic hazards, there is a regionalization of the Mexican territory, however, even though the high levels of damages caused by other natural hazards, there is a lack of initiatives for performing atlas of natural hazards or coastal management plans. Exceptions are the local scale atlas of natural hazards by the Mexican Geological Survey or some other local scale atlas made with several errors by non experience private consultant companies. Our work shows results of analyses of coastal geological hazards associated to global warming such as the sea level rise, and the increase in strength of some coastal processes. Initially, due to the high diversity in coastal environments for the Mexican coast, it was considered that, a regional characterization of the coastal zone, and the gathering of environmental data for determining levels of impact of the various coastal hazards, as an evaluation of coastal vulnerability. Thus, the basic criteria for defining Coastal Regions, in order of importance, were the following: geomorphology, climate, geology, tectonics, and oceanography. Also, some anthropogenic factors were taken in account for the coastal regionalization, such as civil construction along the coastline, land used and modification of the fluvial system. The analysis of such criteria, allows us to classify the Mexican coasts in 10 Coastal Regions. On the Pacific coast regions are: (I) Pacific Coast of Baja California, (II) Gulf Coast of Baja California, (III) Coastal Plain of

  18. Impact of Deforestation on Cloud Properties and Rainfall Over the Costa Rica-Nicaraguan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, D. K.; Nair, U. S.; Welch, R. M.; Lawton, R. O.

    2002-12-01

    examined. Previous modeling work has shown that in this region the lowlands and highlands are highly coupled. Preliminary results from numerical modeling studies illustrating the impacts of deforestation on the regional climate will also be presented.

  19. Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

    2015-05-01

    Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and

  20. East Asian Studies of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST -AIRC): An overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhangqing, Li; Li, C.; Chen, H.; Tsay, S.-C.; Holben, B.; Huang, J.; Li, B.; Maring, H.; Qian, Y.; Shi, G.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zhuang, G.

    2011-01-01

    As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas, Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC), The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF-China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: An International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE), The former two are U,S,-China collaborative projects, and the latter is a part of the China's National Basic Research program (or often referred to as "973 project"), Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies, The wealth of general and speCIalized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical, and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation, and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical, and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects; and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system, Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc, In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.

  1. Population dynamics and their impact on adolescents in the ESCAP region.

    PubMed

    Jones, G W

    1997-09-01

    "This study examines the impact on adolescents of the dramatic demographic, social and economic changes currently taking place in the ESCAP region. Among the aspects it considers are the growth of the adolescent population, their age at marriage and fertility, educational developments, labour force participation, and the effects of poverty, globalization and urbanization on this segment of the population. It concludes by drawing out the implications of the research for policy and programme purposes." PMID:12321419

  2. Disturbance to desert soil ecosystems contributes to dust-mediated impacts at regional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pointing, Stephen B.; Belnap, Jayne

    2014-01-01

    This review considers the regional scale of impacts arising from disturbance to desert soil ecosystems. Deserts occupy over one-third of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, and biological soil covers are critical to stabilization of desert soils. Disturbance to these can contribute to massive destabilization and mobilization of dust. This results in dust storms that are transported across inter-continental distances where they have profound negative impacts. Dust deposition at high altitudes causes radiative forcing of snowpack that leads directly to altered hydrological regimes and changes to freshwater biogeochemistry. In marine environments dust deposition impacts phytoplankton diazotrophy, and causes coral reef senescence. Increasingly dust is also recognized as a threat to human health.

  3. Quantifying the impacts of dust on the Caspian Sea using a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elguindi, N.; Solmon, F.; Turuncoglu, U.

    2013-12-01

    The Karakum desert and surrounding area to the Caspian Sea (CS) provide a significant source of dust to the region. Local dust events can have a substantial impact on SSTs and evaporation from the Sea through direct radiative effects. Given the high interest in projected changes in the Caspian Sea Level (CSL), it is critical that we understand what these effects are in order to accurately model net sea evaporation, a major component of the CS hydrological budget. In this study, we employ a regional climate model (RegCM4) coupled to the 1D Hostetler lake model to explore the impact of dust on the CS. Dust is simulated in RegCM4 through an interactive dust emission transport model coupled to the radiation scheme, as well as a representation of anthropogenic aerosols. The first part of this study focuses on an evaluation of the ability of RegCM4 to simulate dust in the region by comparing 1) seasonal climatologies of modelled aerosol optical depth (AOD) to a range of satellite sources, and 2) a climatology of dust events, as well as decadal variability, to observations derived from visibility measurements. The second part of this study attempts to quantify the impact of dust on the Caspian SSTs, evaporation and heat flux components. The results of this study show that simulating the effects of dust on the CS is necessary for accurately modeling the Sea's hydrological budget.

  4. Impact on the PACOM regional command strategy of the evolving national security strategy. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Riddle, M.H.

    1994-02-08

    This paper deals with the conclusions and recommendations of the impact the evolving United States national security strategy may have on the PACOM regional command strategy. The conclusions and recommendations are based on a survey of the January 1993 National Security Strategy of the United States presented by the outgoing Administration and the impact that the evolving strategy of the Clinton Administration is having. These conclusions and recommendations are also influenced by current events surrounding the activities and policy debate centered on the Peoples Democratic Republic of Korea. The conclusions drawn are that the objectives of national security are timeless and consistent from Administration to Administration, even when the party changes. The divergence occurs in emphasis and priority. Several impacts on the PACOM regional command strategy are identified as a result. To break the reliance on the strategy of deterrence requires refocusing of the priority from the global-international level to the regional level. The recommendation is made that the Administration should de-link the military considerations on the Korean peninsula from the international debate over the DPRK nuclear program.

  5. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    PubMed

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:24518587

  6. Solar Wind Interaction with Comet 67P/C-G: Impact of Corotating Interaction Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edberg, N. J. T.; Eriksson, A. I.; Odelstad, E.; Vigren, E.; Burch, J. L.; Carr, C.; Cupido, E.; Glassmeier, K. H.; Goldstein, R.; Halekas, J. S.; Pierre, H.; Lebreton, J. P.; Mandt, K.; Mokashi, P.; Nemeth, Z.; Nilsson, H.; Ramstad, R.; Richter, I.; Stenberg Wieser, G.

    2015-12-01

    We present observations from the Rosetta Plasma Consortium (RPC) of impacts of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) on comet 67P. Corotating interaction regions build up in the solar wind when slow flow is caught up by faster flow. A pressure pulse is then formed, which propagates outward in interplanetary space and impacts on e.g. planets, moons and comet in its path. In the interval October to December 2014 four such CIRs are traced from Earth (using ACE) to Mars (using Mars Express and MAVEN) and to comet 67P (using Rosetta). As the CIRs impact on the cometary coma the ionospheric low-energy plasma density in the ionosphere increases by roughly one order of magnitude in the first three events. The increased density is possibly caused by sweeping up of more upstream plasma in combination with increased impact ionization and charge exchange processes. Increased fluxes of ~100 eV electrons are observed concurrently and the magnetic field strength typically doubles as more interplanetary magnetic field piles up around of the comet.

  7. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yield over the Terai Region of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subedi, S.; Acharya, A.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural sector in Nepal which alone contributes about 42 % of the total GDP have a huge influence on national economy. This sector is very much susceptible to climate change. This study is emphasized on Terai region (situated at an altitude of 60m to 300m) of Nepal which investigates the impacts of climate variability on various stages of cropping (paddy) periods such as transplant, maturity and harvest. The climate variables namely temperature and rainfall are used to explore the relationship between climate and paddy yields based on 30 years of historical observed data. Observed monthly rainfall and temperature data are collected from the department of hydrology and meteorology, and paddy yield data are collected from the Ministry of Agricultural Development. A correlation analysis will be carried out between the backward difference filtered climate parameters and the backward difference filtered rice yield. This study will also analyze average monthly and annual rainfall, and, min, max and mean temperature during the period of 1981-2010 based on 15 synoptic stations of Nepal. This study will visualize rainfall and temperature distribution over Nepal, and also evaluate the effect of change in rainfall and temperature in the paddy yield. While evaluating the impacts of climate on crop yield, this study will not consider the impact of irrigation in crop yield. The major results, climate distribution and its local/regional impacts on agriculture, could be utilized by planners, decision makers, and climate and agricultural scientists as a basis in formulating/implementing future plans, policies and projects.

  8. A statistical study of the regional impact of deforestation on climate in the LMD GCM

    SciTech Connect

    Polcher, J.; Laval, K.

    1994-09-01

    The present study uses the general circulation model of the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD-GCM) coupled to the land-surface, vegetation model SECHIBA. The impact of deforestation on climate is discussed. Replacing tropical forests by degraded pastures changes albedo, the roughness length and the hydrological properties of the surface. The experiment was carried out over eleven years using the observed sea surface temperature from 1978 to 1988, which includes two major El Nino events. The discussion of the results in this study is limited to the regional impact of deforestation. The changes found for the surface fluxes in Amazonia, Africa, and Indonesia are examined in detail and compared in order to understand the impact on temperature. Special attention is paid to feedback mechanisms which compensate for the surface changes and to the statistical significant of these results within athe tropical variability of climate. It is shown that the relatively small regional impact of deforestation in this study is statistically significant and largely independent of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. 27 refs., 7 figs., 11 tabs.

  9. Economic impact of accelerated cleanup on regions surrounding the U.S. DOE's major nuclear weapons sites.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, M; Solitare, L; Frisch, M; Lowrie, K

    1999-08-01

    The regional economic impacts of the U.S. Department of Energy's accelerated environmental cleanup plan are estimated for the major nuclear weapons sites in Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Washington. The analysis shows that the impact falls heavily on the three relatively rural regions around the Savannah River (SC), Hanford (WA), and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (ID) sites. A less aggressive phase-down of environmental management funds and separate funds to invest in education and infrastructure in the regions helps buffer the impacts on jobs, personal income, and gross regional product. Policy options open to the federal and state and local governments are discussed. PMID:10765427

  10. The Economic Impact of Piedmont Virginia Community College upon Its Service Region. Research Report Number 2-94.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Head, Ronald B.

    A study was conducted to determine the economic impact of Piedmont Virginia Community College (PVCC) on its service area for fiscal year 1992-93. Three models of economic impact were used in the study: the "short cut" method (SCM) calculating impact based on data on college, employee, and student expenditures in the service region; the Eastern…

  11. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  12. Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region

    PubMed Central

    Kirigia, Joses M; Sambo, Luis G; Aldis, William; Mwabu, Germano M

    2004-01-01

    Background Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. Methods The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. Results The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. Conclusions We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns. PMID:15113453

  13. Arctic Oscillation impact on thermal regime of the Baltic region Eastern part

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gecaite, Indre; Pogoreltsev, Aleksandr; Ugryumov, Aleksandr

    2016-04-01

    Statistical estimations of Arctic Oscillation (AO) impact on air temperature regime in the Eastern part of Baltic region are presented. The region is characterized by high inter-annual and inter-seasonal variabilities. It is important to note that in the region of global warming extremely low winter temperatures can be observed on the European territory of Russia. AO is one of large-scale global structures of atmospheric circulation closely associated with weather variability in Northern Europe. AO anomalies occur in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) and only then transferred to tropospheric lower layers. The anomalies can be preserved during long period up to two months, so they can be predictors in long-range weather forecast. In turn, changes in stratospheric polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warmings can be related to the geomagnetic activity. Perhaps, the geomagnetic activity influences the meridional temperature gradient and then changes in the structure of the stratospheric zonal wind. In turn, the changes have an impact on the tropospheric circulation. The stratosphere-troposphere connection occurs during winter months. Therefore, the paper presents the analysis of extremely cold winter anomalies in the Eastern part of Baltic Sea region. At the same time, we considered atmospheric circulation peculiarities related to AO phase change. The analyzable time interval covers 1951-2014.

  14. Spatiotemporal impacts of wildfire and climate warming on permafrost across a subarctic region, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yu; Wolfe, Stephen A.; Morse, Peter D.; Olthof, Ian; Fraser, Robert H.

    2015-11-01

    Field observations show significant impacts of wildfires on active layer thickness and ground temperatures. However, the importance of fires to permafrost conditions at regional scales remains unclear, especially with climate warming. This study evaluated the regional impacts of fire on permafrost with climate change from 1942 to 2100 using a process-based model in a large subarctic region in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Climate warming is shown to be the dominant factor for permafrost reduction. The warming trend of climate reduces permafrost extent in this region from 67% at present to 2% by 2100. For burned areas, fire increases the reduction of permafrost extent by up to 9% on average, with up to 16% for forest, 10% for tundra and bogs, and 4% for fens. Fire accelerates permafrost disappearance by 5 years on average. The effects of fire on active layer thickness and permafrost extent are much larger in forest areas than in tundra, bogs, and fens. Since active layer is thicker after a fire and cannot recover in most of the areas, the fire effects on active layer are widespread. On average, fires thickens active layer by about 0.5 m. The fire effects on active layer increased significantly after 1990 due to climate warming.

  15. Analyzing the impact of ambient temperature indicators on transformer life in different regions of Chinese mainland.

    PubMed

    Bai, Cui-fen; Gao, Wen-Sheng; Liu, Tong

    2013-01-01

    Regression analysis is applied to quantitatively analyze the impact of different ambient temperature characteristics on the transformer life at different locations of Chinese mainland. 200 typical locations in Chinese mainland are selected for the study. They are specially divided into six regions so that the subsequent analysis can be done in a regional context. For each region, the local historical ambient temperature and load data are provided as inputs variables of the life consumption model in IEEE Std. C57.91-1995 to estimate the transformer life at every location. Five ambient temperature indicators related to the transformer life are involved into the partial least squares regression to describe their impact on the transformer life. According to a contribution measurement criterion of partial least squares regression, three indicators are conclusively found to be the most important factors influencing the transformer life, and an explicit expression is provided to describe the relationship between the indicators and the transformer life for every region. The analysis result is applicable to the area where the temperature characteristics are similar to Chinese mainland, and the expressions obtained can be applied to the other locations that are not included in this paper if these three indicators are known. PMID:23843729

  16. Climate change trend in the tropical and Caribbean regions and its hydrological impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setegn, S. G.; Melesse, A. M.

    2010-12-01

    Climate variability and climate change pose significant economic and environmental risks worldwide. There are limited studies in the Caribbean islands in terms of trends in climate change and its impact on hydrology and environmental problems. The study focused in Caribbean watersheds of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and south Florida. Drought, heavy rainfall, high winds, and flooding cause losses to the agricultural and natural resources sectors locally in Florida and in the Caribbean islands. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the regions for three seasons (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) were analyzed using outputs from fifteen global climate models (GCMs). Comparison of projected changes in precipitation and temperature across different models for the three future seasons was carried out to get an indication of the consistency of the projected changes in the region. Different downscaling methods were used to downscale the large scale GCM into watershed level climate data. We interpret the different aspects of the hydrological response to imply that changes in runoff and other hydrological variables in the region could be significant, even though the GCMs do not agree on the direction of the change. This implies that climate change may well impact on the surface and ground water resources of the region.

  17. Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region.

    PubMed

    Kirigia, Joses M; Sambo, Luis G; Aldis, William; Mwabu, Germano M

    2004-03-15

    BACKGROUND: Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. METHODS: The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. RESULTS: The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns. PMID:15113453

  18. Life cycle assessment based evaluation of regional impacts from agricultural production at the Peruvian coast.

    PubMed

    Bartl, Karin; Verones, Francesca; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2012-09-18

    Crop and technology choices in agriculture, which largely define the impact of agricultural production on the environment, should be considered in agricultural development planning. A life cycle assessment of the dominant crops produced in a Peruvian coastal valley was realized, in order to establish regionalized life cycle inventories for Peruvian products and to provide the basis for a regional evaluation of the impacts of eutrophication, acidification, human toxicity, and biodiversity loss due to water use. Five scenarios for the year 2020 characterized by different crop combinations and irrigation systems were considered as development options. The results of the regional assessment showed that a business-as-usual scenario, extrapolating current trends of crop cultivation, would lead to an increase in nitrate leaching with eutrophying effects. On the other hand, scenarios of increased application of drip irrigation and of mandarin area expansion would lead to a decrease in nitrate leaching. In all scenarios the human toxicity potential would decrease slightly, while an increase in irrigation water use would benefit the biodiversity of a nearby groundwater-fed wetland. Comparisons with results from other studies confirmed the importance of regionalized life cycle inventories. The results can be used as decision support for local farmers and authorities. PMID:22894858

  19. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets.

    PubMed

    Seneviratne, Sonia I; Donat, Markus G; Pitman, Andy J; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L

    2016-01-28

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean. PMID:26789252

  20. Predictions of the Impacts of Future Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development on Regional Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, A.; Adams, P. J.; Robinson, A. L.

    2012-12-01

    Recent discovery of shale gas reserves, combined with advances in drilling and fracturing technology, are leading to extensive development of natural gas in the Marcellus Shale formation which underlies parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and New York. To assess the impacts of this development on regional air quality, we have constructed a VOC, NOx and PM2.5 emissions inventory for the development and production of gas from the Marcellus formation. In 2020, we estimate that Marcellus activities will contribute about 12% to both regional NOx and VOC emissions. These numbers were obtained as a best estimate (mean) from a distribution obtained through several Monte Carlo runs. We speciated these emissions for use in a 3-D chemical transport model (PMCAMx) to simulate their effects on regional ozone. The projected Marcellus emissions for 2020 were added to a 2007 base inventory developed from the NEI. We have performed multiple simulations to investigate the effects of Marcellus development on regional air quality. The model predicts significant ozone changes in the Marcellus region with a uniform increase of few ppb across a wide region of the Northeast. Sensitivity studies are being performed to investigate the effects of emissions controls and sensitivity to VOC and NOx emissions.

  1. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER. A REPORT OF THE NEW ENGLAND REGIONAL ASSESSMENT GROUP FOR THE US GLOBAL CHANGE RESEACH PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England Region is not considered limited by water availability. While the region was impacted by a serious drought during the mid-1960s, overall, images of a vast network of lush green forests and inviting waterways, extensive shorelines, and a landscape of mountain strea...

  2. Characterization of the differentially methylated region of the Impact gene that exhibits Glires-specific imprinting

    PubMed Central

    Okamura, Kohji; Wintle, Richard F; Scherer, Stephen W

    2008-01-01

    Background Imprinted genes are exclusively expressed from one of the two parental alleles in a parent-of-origin-specific manner. In mammals, nearly 100 genes are documented to be imprinted. To understand the mechanism behind this gene regulation and to identify novel imprinted genes, common features of DNA sequences have been analyzed; however, the general features required for genomic imprinting have not yet been identified, possibly due to variability in underlying molecular mechanisms from locus to locus. Results We performed a thorough comparative genomic analysis of a single locus, Impact, which is imprinted only in Glires (rodents and lagomorphs). The fact that Glires and primates diverged from each other as recent as 70 million years ago makes comparisons between imprinted and non-imprinted orthologues relatively reliable. In species from the Glires clade, Impact bears a differentially methylated region, whereby the maternal allele is hypermethylated. Analysis of this region demonstrated that imprinting was not associated with the presence of direct tandem repeats nor with CpG dinucleotide density. In contrast, a CpG periodicity of 8 bp was observed in this region in species of the Glires clade compared to those of carnivores, artiodactyls, and primates. Conclusions We show that tandem repeats are dispensable, establishment of the differentially methylated region does not rely on G+C content and CpG density, and the CpG periodicity of 8 bp is meaningful to the imprinting. This interval has recently been reported to be optimal for de novo methylation by the Dnmt3a-Dnmt3L complex, suggesting its importance in the establishment of imprinting in Impact and other genes. PMID:19014519

  3. Quantification of Road Network Vulnerability and Traffic Impacts to Regional Landslide Hazards.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dixon, Neil; Dijkstra, Tom

    2015-04-01

    Slope instability represents a prevalent hazard to transport networks. In the UK regional road networks are frequently disrupted by multiple slope failures triggered during intense precipitation events; primarily due to a degree of regional homogeneity of slope materials, geomorphology and weather conditions. It is of interest to examine how different locations and combinations of slope failure impact road networks, particularly in the context of projected climate change and a 40% increase in UK road demand by 2040. In this study an extensive number (>50 000) of multiple failure event scenarios are simulated within a dynamic micro simulation to assess traffic impacts during peak flow (7 - 10 AM). Possible failure locations are selected within the county of Gloucestershire (3150 km2) using historic failure sites and British Geological Survey GeoSure data. Initial investigations employ a multiple linear regression analyses to consider the severity of traffic impacts, as measured by time, in respect of spatial and topographical network characteristics including connectivity, density and capacity in proximity to failure sites; the network distance between disruptions in multiple failure scenarios is used to consider the effects of spatial clustering. The UK Department of Transport road travel demand and UKCP09 weather projection data to 2080 provide a suitable basis for traffic simulations and probabilistic slope stability assessments. Future work will thus focus on the development of a catastrophe risk model to simulate traffic impacts under various narratives of future travel demand and slope instability under climatic change. The results of this investigation shall contribute to the understanding of road network vulnerabilities and traffic impacts from climate driven slope hazards.

  4. The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

    2013-12-01

    Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the

  5. Elucidating hydraulic fracturing impacts on groundwater quality using a regional geospatial statistical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Burton, Taylour G; Rifai, Hanadi S; Hildenbrand, Zacariah L; Carlton, Doug D; Fontenot, Brian E; Schug, Kevin A

    2016-03-01

    Hydraulic fracturing operations have been viewed as the cause of certain environmental issues including groundwater contamination. The potential for hydraulic fracturing to induce contaminant pathways in groundwater is not well understood since gas wells are completed while isolating the water table and the gas-bearing reservoirs lay thousands of feet below the water table. Recent studies have attributed ground water contamination to poor well construction and leaks in the wellbore annulus due to ruptured wellbore casings. In this paper, a geospatial model of the Barnett Shale region was created using ArcGIS. The model was used for spatial analysis of groundwater quality data in order to determine if regional variations in groundwater quality, as indicated by various groundwater constituent concentrations, may be associated with the presence of hydraulically fractured gas wells in the region. The Barnett Shale reservoir pressure, completions data, and fracture treatment data were evaluated as predictors of groundwater quality change. Results indicated that elevated concentrations of certain groundwater constituents are likely related to natural gas production in the study area and that beryllium, in this formation, could be used as an indicator variable for evaluating fracturing impacts on regional groundwater quality. Results also indicated that gas well density and formation pressures correlate to change in regional water quality whereas proximity to gas wells, by itself, does not. The results also provided indirect evidence supporting the possibility that micro annular fissures serve as a pathway transporting fluids and chemicals from the fractured wellbore to the overlying groundwater aquifers. PMID:26745299

  6. Numerical investigation for the impact of CO2 geologic sequestration on regional groundwater flow

    SciTech Connect

    Yamamoto, H.; Zhang, K.; Karasaki, K.; Marui, A.; Uehara, H.; Nishikawa, N.

    2009-04-15

    Large-scale storage of carbon dioxide in saline aquifers may cause considerable pressure perturbation and brine migration in deep rock formations, which may have a significant influence on the regional groundwater system. With the help of parallel computing techniques, we conducted a comprehensive, large-scale numerical simulation of CO{sub 2} geologic storage that predicts not only CO{sub 2} migration, but also its impact on regional groundwater flow. As a case study, a hypothetical industrial-scale CO{sub 2} injection in Tokyo Bay, which is surrounded by the most heavily industrialized area in Japan, was considered, and the impact of CO{sub 2} injection on near-surface aquifers was investigated, assuming relatively high seal-layer permeability (higher than 10 microdarcy). A regional hydrogeological model with an area of about 60 km x 70 km around Tokyo Bay was discretized into about 10 million gridblocks. To solve the high-resolution model efficiently, we used a parallelized multiphase flow simulator TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N on a world-class high performance supercomputer in Japan, the Earth Simulator. In this simulation, CO{sub 2} was injected into a storage aquifer at about 1 km depth under Tokyo Bay from 10 wells, at a total rate of 10 million tons/year for 100 years. Through the model, we can examine regional groundwater pressure buildup and groundwater migration to the land surface. The results suggest that even if containment of CO{sub 2} plume is ensured, pressure buildup on the order of a few bars can occur in the shallow confined aquifers over extensive regions, including urban inlands.

  7. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

    2015-05-01

    The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. PMID:25682220

  8. Impact of Historical Deforestation and Urbanization on Regional Climate in North Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, T.; Sasaki, T.

    2011-12-01

    The Hokkaido Island located in North Japan has been experienced historical land use change since 150 years ago when Japanese began to develop. The original boreal forest in Hokkaido Island has been replaced by cropland, paddy field, and urban areas. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the historical land use/ land cover change on regional climate in Hokkaido area. Although the impact of deforestation on regional climate has been studied in many previous works, our knowledge on high-latitude areas with snow cover is still limited. Motivated with this fact, we conducted a dynamical downscaling experiment using regional climate model with two different vegetation map, namely original land cover and current land cover. Results in numerical experiments with different land cover maps indicate that difference in annual mean temperature is very small when it is averaged over whole island area. However, the prominent temperature differences are found over urban areas. The difference in annual mean temperature for urban area is 1.1 K due to the deforestation and urbanization effect which is very similar to those estimated using the observed trend. Therefore, we conclude that the recent urbanization in North Japan is a primary factor as well as large-scale climate change to cause rapid warming in big cities in Hokkaido Island.

  9. An analysis of the impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional tropospheric ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    John, Kuruvilla; Crist, Kevin C.; Carmichael, Gregory R.

    1994-01-01

    Many of the synergistic impacts resulting from future changes in emissions as well as changes in ambient temperature, moisture, and UV flux have not been quantified. A three-dimensional regional-scale photo-chemical model (STEM-2) is used in this study to evaluate these perturbations to trace gas cycles over the eastern half of the United States of America. The model was successfully used to simulate a regional-scale ozone episode (base case - June 1984) and four perturbations scenarios - viz., perturbed emissions, temperature, water vapor column, and incoming UV flux cases, and a future scenario (for the year 2034). The impact of these perturbation scenarios on the distribution of ozone and other major pollutants such as SO2 and sulfates were analyzed in detail. The spatial distribution and the concentration of ozone at the surface increased by about 5-15 percent for most cases except for the perturbed water vapor case. The regional scale surface ozone concentration distribution for the year 2034 (future scenario) showed an increase of non-attainment areas. The rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Georgia showed the largest change in the surface ozone field for the futuristic scenario when compared to the base case.

  10. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  11. Impact of external industrial sources on the regional and local air quality of Mexico Megacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almanza, V. H.; Molina, L. T.; Li, G.; Fast, J.; Sosa, G.

    2013-10-01

    The air quality of megacities can be influenced by external emissions sources on both global and regional scale, and at the same time their outflow emissions can exert an important impact to the surrounding environment. The present study evaluates an SO2 peak observed on 24 March 2006 at the suburban supersite T1 and ambient air quality monitoring stations located in the north region of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during MILAGRO campaign. We found that this peak could be related to an important episodic emission event from Tizayuca region, northeast of the MCMA. Back trajectories analyses suggest that the emission event started in the early morning at 04:00 LST and lasted for about 9 h. The estimated emission rate is noticeably high, about 2 kg s-1. This finding suggests the possibility of "overlooked" emission sources in this region that could influence the air quality of the MCMA. This further motivated us to study the cement plants, including those in the State of Hidalgo and in the State of Mexico, and we found that they can contribute in the NE region of the basin (about 41.7%), at the suburban supersite T1 (41.23%) and at some monitoring stations their contribution can be even higher than from the Tula Industrial Complex. The contribution of Tula Industrial Complex to regional ozone levels is estimated. The model suggests low contribution to the MCMA (1 ppb to 4 ppb) and slightly higher at the suburban T1 (6 ppb) and rural T2 (5 ppb) supersites. However, the contribution could be as high as 10 ppb in the upper northwest region of the basin and in the southwest and south-southeast regions of State of Hidalgo. In addition, a first estimate of the potential contribution from flaring activities to regional ozone levels is presented. Emission rates are estimated with a CFD combustion model. Results suggest that up to 30% of the total regional ozone from TIC could be related to flaring activities. Finally, the influence in SO2 levels from technological

  12. Modeling the impact of topography on seismic amplification at regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafique, Muhammad; Anggraeni, Dita; Bakker, Wim; van der Meijde, Mark

    2010-05-01

    The intensity of earthquake triggered ground shaking is influenced by the characteristics of earthquake source, medium and site effects. These site effects are often not included in the regional ground shaking models, especially the local topography. It is being experimentally proved and noticed during many previous earthquakes, that topography has significant impact on variation of ground shaking and subsequent building damages. Majority of the previous studies investigating the topographic impact on seismic response are limited to synthetic environments or isolated hills. This study deals with exploring the impact of topography on variation of ground shaking caused by the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, at a regional scale. With the proliferation of remote sensing technologies, digital elevation models (DEMs) are freely and readily available at medium resolution, and with global cover. DEMs derived from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), with 30m resolution, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), with 90m resolution, can therefore be utilized to model and predict the impact of topography on seismic response, also quickly after a seismic event. The topography of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake affected area is derived from ASTER and SRTM DEMs and analyzed using a 3D spectral finite element code (SPECFEM3D). SPECFEM3D takes into account the seismic source parameters, medium and topography to generate shake maps and earthquake simulations. The ground shaking simulations and peak ground acceleration maps were generated initially assuming the homogenous ground surface and later by including the topography to assess the role of topography in seismic amplification. Topography derived from ASTER and SRTM DEMs were simulated separately to predict the impact of DEM resolution on computed ground shaking simulations and maps. The preliminary result from the model simulations shows that seismic waves were dispersed at topographic

  13. The origin of polygonal impact craters - Evidence from Argyre region, Mars.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohman, T.; Aittola, M.; Kostama, V.-P.; Hyvarinen, M.; Raitala, J.

    2005-08-01

    Polygonal impact craters are a ubiquitous feature on the surfaces of various bodies throughout the Solar System (Ohman et al., 2005). We studied the polygonal craters in the Argyre region, Mars, with two goals in mind: a) to better constrain the origin of polygonality in impact craters, and thus, understand the effects of pre-existing structures of the target material during the formation of impact craters (this work), and b) to see how polygonal craters reflect the complex geotectonic history of Argyre impact basin's surroundings. Differential erosion is still often regarded as the cause for crater's polygonality, although already Eppler et al. (1983) showed that erosion actually increases the circularity, not the polygonality of impact craters. Our work reveals that both eroded (no rim wall), rimmed, and fresh (preserved ejecta blanket) craters all display the same amount of polygonality, as measured by the number of straight rim segments. Also the directions of the rim segments in all erosional stages are statistically generally the same. This suggests that the fracture systems these polygonal craters reflect have quite ancient origins. These observations are very difficult to understand by means of erosion, but instead are a natural outcome if, as we believe, the polygonal plan view stems already from the formation of the crater. The currently favoured acoustic fluidisation model of impact crater's modification (collapse) stage requires that the rim material is nearly strengthless during the collapse, and thus can not have a ``memory" of the pre-existing crustal structures (e.g. Melosh and Ivanov, 1999). In the view of polygonal crater data, this is not the case. Therefore, at least a slight adjustment is required to the current cratering models for them to correctly depict nature. Funding from the Vaisala Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.

  14. Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Sorghum Yield in the Ogallala Aquifer Region, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, G.; Anandhi, A.; Prasad, P.; Staggenborg, S. A.; Gowda, P. H.; Rice, C. W.

    2011-12-01

    The Ogallala aquifer region consists of 232 counties spread over 8 states of United States is facing declining water levels and deteriorating water quality which in turn affects the crop production in these counties. Coupled with the water stress, the changing climatic conditions also has adverse effects on crop production. The objectives of this study was to generate the future scenarios of grain sorghum production in the Ogallala region for plausible future climates. Three RCM's participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), used in this study are Canadian RCM (CRCM), Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) and the Hadley Regional Model (HRM3). The RCMs were nested within the AOGCMs for the current period 1971-2000 and for the future period 2041-2070 for A2 emission scenario. Grain sorghum yield were simulated across the study region using the CERES-Sorghum model program available in the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop simulation model suite. Daily data on rainfall, solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature generated from the RCM were used as meteorological inputs in the current analysis. Grain sorghum hybrid 'Pioneer 8333' planting date and density were set at 5 June and 160,000 plants per hectare respectively. Simulation results show a decrease in the yield of grain sorghum for A2 emission scenario without considering effects of elevated carbon dioxide and changes in genetics. Results of the study provide critical information needed to help decision/policy makers to device long-term strategies to cope with impacts of climate change and variability on water use and crop production for the Ogallala aquifer region.

  15. Fugitives from the Hungaria region: Close encounters and impacts with terrestrial planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galiazzo, M. A.; Bazsó, Á.; Dvorak, R.

    2013-08-01

    Hungaria asteroids, whose orbits occupy the region in element space between 1.78impacts of escaped Hungarias with the terrestrial planets. Out of about 8000 known Hungarias we selected 200 objects which are on the edge of the group. We integrated their orbits over 100 million years in a simplified model of the planetary system (Mars to Saturn) subject only to gravitational forces. We picked out a sample of 11 objects (each with 50 clones) with large variations in semi-major axis and restarted the numerical integration in a gravitational model including the planets from Venus to Saturn. Due to close encounters, some of them achieve high inclinations and eccentricities which, in turn, lead to relatively high velocity impacts on Venus, Earth, and Mars. We statistically analyze all close encounters and impacts with the terrestrial planets and determine the encounter and impact velocities of these fictitious Hungarias.

  16. Impact of including regional anaesthesia in enhanced recovery protocols: a scoping review.

    PubMed

    McIsaac, D I; Cole, E T; McCartney, C J L

    2015-12-01

    Regional anaesthesia (RA) is often included in enhanced recovery protocols (ERPs) as an important component of a bundle of interventions to improve outcomes after surgery. We sought to delineate whether the literature supports the use of RA in this setting with regard to commonly measured outcomes. We further sought to assess whether such improvements would translate into positive impacts on healthcare value as defined by the Institute for Healthcare Improvement Triple Aim. We conducted a scoping review to address our objectives. Studies of ERPs that included RA and reported at least one outcome of interest in comparison to a control group were included. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, CDSR, PROSPERO, and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database were searched up to May 2015. Two reviewers assessed studies and extracted data. Of 695 identified citations, 58 studies were included for analysis. The majority (53%) were in colorectal surgery. Positive impacts of RA on all outcomes were identified; however, value-based outcomes were rarely reported. Where value-based outcomes were reported, RA appears to have a positive impact on global measures of health and function and on economic outcomes. Existing literature supports a positive impact of RA on ERP outcomes, which may be reflected in improved healthcare value. In order to justify the value of RA in ERPs, a future focus on appropriate measures is needed to align research with widely accepted frameworks, such as the Triple Aim. PMID:26658201

  17. Local and Regional Scale Impacts of Arctic Shipping Emissions Off the Coast of Northern Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marelle, L.; Thomas, J. L.; Law, K.; Raut, J. C.; Jalkanen, J. P.; Johansson, L.; Roiger, A.; Schlager, H.; Kim, J.; Reiter, A.; Weinzierl, B.; Rose, M.

    2014-12-01

    Decreased sea ice extent due to warming has already resulted in the use of new shipping routes through the Arctic. Marine traffic is a source of air pollutants, including NOx, SO2, and aerosols, and is predicted to be an increasingly significant source of Arctic pollution in the future. Currently there are large uncertainties in both global and Arctic shipping emissions, leading to uncertainties in diagnosing current and future impacts of marine traffic on Arctic air quality and climate. This study focuses on the local scale, examining chemical/aerosol transformations occurring in individual ship plumes. Measurements of ship pollution in the Arctic taken during the EU ACCESS aircraft campaign (Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society) in July 2012 are used to quantify the amount of pollution emitted from different ship types. This is combined with regional model (WRF-Chem) simulations to evaluate the impacts of shipping in northern Norway in summer 2012. The model is run at high resolution (2x2 km) combined with STEAMv2 (Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model version 2) emissions (1x1 km, 15 minute resolution) produced for shipping activity during the measurement period. WRF-Chem model results are compared with 3 ship plumes sampled during ACCESS. The model shows that both the location and total amount of pollution in individual ship plumes are correctly represented. Given this, the model is used to investigate the regional influence of ship pollution off the coast of Norway on a weekly time scale during July 2012, focusing on ozone photochemistry in ship plumes, the evolution of aerosols, and investigating the fate of black carbon emitted from ships. We compare regional modeling results obtained using 15 minute resolution STEAMv2 emissions with results using weekly averaged emissions, which are more representative of emissions typically used by global models to study the impacts of shipping on air quality and climate.

  18. Considerations about gust wind thresholds related to social impact: study of different regions in Catalonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barberia, Laura; Amaro, Jéssica; Aran, Montserrat; Llasat, Maria del Carmen

    2016-04-01

    Severe weather events can cause several damages on a territory and its population, affecting urban infrastructure and housing, among others. In particular, wind is one of the most important phenomena which cause remarkable economic losses. Since 2008, different studies conducted by the Social Impact Research Group, in the frame of HYMEX project, determined that requests related to damage claims which are received in Meteorological Services are a good proxy indicator of social impact. However, the strong wind studies took into account a unique threshold, which proved to be insufficient. It was found that it was necessary to define a threshold for each area, according to its vulnerability and exposure. Therefore, the aim of this study is to define, for each county in Catalonia, thresholds of gust wind speed for which a remarkable social impact is observed. To accomplish this, the database of requests received in the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) between 2011 and 2015 has been used. For each request, the most representative automatic weather stations are associated. Statistical treatments of the gust wind data recorded by these stations have been carried out in order to determine which values are related to social impact. As an example, one of the first results shows that in a populated area like Barcelona, the average gust is approximately 70 km/h. On the contrary, in other less populated counties and usually more exposed to strong winds, the mean is over 85 km/h. Besides, the relation between gusts and requests has been analyzed to detect significant slope changes. In general, it has been detected an increase of requests at certain gust wind values. These results, which vary depending on the region's vulnerability and exposure, could be used to establish new thresholds for Civil Protection alarms. Therefore, a higher accuracy by region will be reached.

  19. Evaluating Aggregate Terrestrial Impacts of Road Construction Projects for Advanced Regional Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, James H.; Girvetz, Evan H.; McCoy, Michael C.

    2009-05-01

    This study presents a GIS-based database framework used to assess aggregate terrestrial habitat impacts from multiple highway construction projects in California, USA. Transportation planners need such impact assessment tools to effectively address additive biological mitigation obligations. Such assessments can reduce costly delays due to protracted environmental review. This project incorporated the best available statewide natural resource data into early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple highway construction projects, and provides an assessment of the 10-year state-wide mitigation obligations for the California Department of Transportation. Incorporation of these assessments will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation opportunities, for single-project and regional mitigation efforts. The data architecture format uses eight spatial scales: six nested watersheds, counties, and transportation planning districts, which were intersected. This resulted in 8058 map planning units statewide, which were used to summarize all subsequent analyses. Range maps and georeferenced locations of federally and state-listed plants and animals and a 55-class landcover map were spatially intersected with the planning units and the buffered spatial footprint of 967 funded projects. Projected impacts were summarized and output to the database. Queries written in the database can sum expected impacts and provide summaries by individual construction project, or by watershed, county, transportation district or highway. The data architecture allows easy incorporation of new information and results in a tool usable without GIS by a wide variety of agency biologists and planners. The data architecture format would be useful for other types of regional planning.

  20. Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, A.

    2011-12-01

    The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

  1. Impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural land use and in particular crop growth dynamics can greatly affect soil quality. Both the amount of soil lost from erosion by water and soil organic matter are key indicators for soil quality. The aim was to develop a modelling framework for quantifying the impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale with test case Flanders. A framework for modelling the impacts of crop growth on soil erosion and soil organic matter was developed by coupling the dynamic crop cover model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) to the PESERA soil erosion model (Kirkby et al., 2009) and to the RothC carbon model (Coleman and Jenkinson, 1999). All three models are process-based, spatially distributed and intended as a regional diagnostic tool. A geo-database was constructed covering 10 years of crop rotation in Flanders using the IACS parcel registration (Integrated Administration and Control System). Crop allometric models were developed from variety trials to calculate crop residues for common crops in Flanders and subsequently derive stable organic matter fluxes to the soil. Results indicate that crop growth dynamics and crop rotations influence soil quality for a very large percentage. soil erosion mainly occurs in the southern part of Flanders, where silty to loamy soils and a hilly topography are responsible for soil loss rates of up to 40 t/ha. Parcels under maize, sugar beet and potatoes are most vulnerable to soil erosion. Crop residues of grain maize and winter wheat followed by catch crops contribute most to the total carbon sequestered in agricultural soils. For the same rotations carbon sequestration is highest on clay soils and lowest on sandy soils. This implies that agricultural policies that impact on agricultural land management influence soil quality for a large percentage. The coupled REGCROP-PESERA-ROTHC model allows for quantifying the impact of seasonal and year-to-year crop growth dynamics on soil quality. When coupled to a multi-annual crop

  2. Martian Polar Region Impact Craters: Topographical Perspectives from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garvin, J. B.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Frawley, J. J.; Matias, A.

    1998-01-01

    The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) has acquired over 100 topographic cross-sections of impact landforms in the polar regions of Mars as part of Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Science Phasing Orbit observations during the period from April to July, 1998. These MOLA topographic profiles offer the first three-dimensional perspectives of high latitude craters on Mars yet available, and provide evidence of landform geometries not previously recognized. Indeed, the relatively poor quality of Viking Orbiter images of many high northern latitude regions has allowed the MOLA data to provide insights into the cavities and ejecta topologies of non-degraded impact landforms that have clearly experienced interactions with condensates, either as part of their formation, or as a post-modification stage effect. Here we report a preliminary summary of the results associated with topographic measurements for a statistically significant population of impact features all of which lie north of 60N latitude. MOLA sampled four impact features with frost-related interior deposits, including the 81 km (diameter) Korolev feature. In several cases, there is evidence from near-centerline MOLA cross-sections of crater interior features (i.e., central peak or ice-dust deposits) that are anomalously large relative to the crater cavity. Central structures that make up more than 50% of the volume of a crater cavity are observed, suggesting that either substantial accumulation of mantling materials has occurred, or that crater excavation triggered production of volume-enhancing materials (ice?). Pedestal craters sampled by MOLA also attest to enhanced production of ejecta materials in high latitude terrains. For example, many of the pedestal craters suggest a volume of ejecta (Ve) to volume of cavity (Vc) ratio far in excess of 1.0 (i.e., over 3.0), even in cases where the floor of the cavity appears unfilled. Finally, the well-defined transitions between simple and complex craters observed in

  3. Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

    PubMed

    Law, Beverly E

    2014-12-01

    Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. PMID:24909650

  4. The impact of H2S emissions on future geothermal power generation - The Geysers region, California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leibowitz, L. P.

    1977-01-01

    The future potential for geothermal power generation in the Geysers region of California is as much as 10 times the current 502 MW(e) capacity. However, environmental factors such as H2S emissions and institutional considerations may play the primary role in determining the rate and ultimate level of development. In this paper a scenario of future geothermal generation capacity and H2S emissions in the Geysers region is presented. Problem areas associated with H2S emissions, H2S abatement processes, plant operations, and government agency resources are described. The impact of H2S emissions on future development and the views of effected organizations are discussed. Potential actions needed to remove these constraints are summarized.

  5. Climate Impacts of Ozone and Sulfate Air Pollution from Specific Emissions Sectors and Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unger, N.; Koch, D. M.; Shindell, D. T.; Streets, D. G.

    2006-12-01

    The secondary air pollutants ozone (O3) and sulfate aerosol are generated by human activities and affect the Earth's climate system. The global mean radiative forcings of these short-lived species depend on the location of the precursor gas emissions, which has so far prevented their incorporation into climate-motivated policy agreements. O3 and sulfate aerosol are strongly coupled through tropospheric photochemistry and yet air quality control efforts consider each species separately. Previous modeling work to assess climate impacts of O3 has focused on individual precursors, such as nitrogen oxides, even though policy action would target a particular sector. We use the G-PUCCINI atmospheric composition-climate model to isolate the O3 and sulfate direct radiative forcing impacts of 6 specific emissions sectors (industry, transport, power, domestic biofuel, domestic fossil fuel and biomass burning) from 7 geographic regions (North America, Europe, South Asia, East Asia, North Africa and the Middle East, Central and South Africa and South America) for the near future 2030 atmosphere. The goal of the study is to identify specific source sectors and regions that present the most effective opportunities to mitigate global warming. At 2030, the industry and power sectors dominate the sulfate forcing across all regions, with East Asia, South Asia and North Africa and Middle East contributing the largest sulfate forcings (-100 to 120 mWm-2). The transport sector represents an important O3 forcing from all regions ranging from 5 mWm-2 (Europe) to 12 mWm-2 (East Asia). Domestic biofuel O3 forcing is important for the East Asia (13 mWm-2), South Asia (7 mWm-2) and Central and South Africa (10 mWm-2) regions. Biomass burning contributes large O3 forcings for the Central and South Africa (15 mWm-2) and South America (11 mWm-2) regions. In addition, the power sector O3 forcings from East Asia (14 mWm-2) and South Asia (8 mWm-2) are also substantial. Considering the sum of the O

  6. An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, Radley M.

    Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

  7. Impact of regional meteorology on ozone levels in the Lake Tahoe Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rayne, Sandra; Gertler, Alan; Zielinska, Barbara; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Burley, Joel; Kaplan, Michael

    2016-07-01

    The Lake Tahoe Basin is located on the California-Nevada border and occasionally experiences elevated levels of ozone (O3) exceeding the California Air Resources Board ambient air quality standard (8-h average). Previous studies indicate that both the local generation and long-range transport from out-of-basin sources are important in contributing to O3 exceedances, but little is known about the impact of regional meteorology on O3 source regions. To develop a better understanding of the factors affecting O3 levels and sources in the Lake Tahoe Basin, a comprehensive field study was performed in the summer of 2010. Included in this effort was a meteorological analysis addressing potential regional meteorological influences leading to periods of elevated levels of O3. Three approaches were used to conduct the analysis: (1) regional atmospheric pressure difference (i.e., the Washoe Zephyr) to access potential transport, (2) back trajectory modeling using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to determine where the air masses originated and, (3) composite soundings to evaluate in-Basin atmospheric influences. These analyses indicate the Washoe Zephyr did not strongly impact O3 levels; however, higher O3 levels were found to correspond with both a more southerly wind component and a dip in dew point temperature around 400 hPa. The results also indicate that if transport does occur, it is more likely to come from the San Joaquin Valley and move to the southern part of the Basin, rather than originating in the large cities to the west (i.e., Sacramento and San Francisco).

  8. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  9. A Preliminary Synthesis of Modeled Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional Ozone Concentrations

    SciTech Connect

    Weaver, C. P.; Liang, X. Z.; Zhu, J.; Adams, P. J.; Amar, Praveen; Avise, J.; Caughey, M.; Chen, J.; Cohen, R. C.; Cooter, E.; Dawson, J. P.; Gilliam, R.; Gilliland, A.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Grambsch, A.; Grano, D.; Guenther, Alex; Gustafson, William I.; Harley, R. A.; He, Shan; Hemming, B.; Hogrefe, C.; Huang, H. -C.; Hunt, Sherri W.; Jacob, D.; Kinney, Patrick L.; Kunkel, K.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lamb, Brian K.; Larkin, N.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Lin, J.; Lynn, B. H.; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Mass, Clifford S.; KcKenzie, D.; Mickley, L. J.; O'Neil, S.; Nolte, C.; Pandis, S. N.; Racherla, P. N.; Rosenzweig, C.; Russell, Armistead G.; Salathe, E.; Steiner, A. L.; Tagaris, Efthimios; Tao, Z.; Tonse, S.; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Williams, A.; Winner, D. A.; Woo, J.-H; Wu, S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    2009-12-01

    This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential impacts of global climate change (c. 2050) on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions between climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality, the ultimate goal of which is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential impacts of global change on air quality, including O3, particulate matter (PM), and mercury (Hg). The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment whose aim was to consider the effects of climate change alone, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the different groups, simulated global climate change causes increases in summertime O3 concentrations over some substantial regions of the country. These regional patterns of change, however, are not, in general, the same across the different simulations. These differences result from variations in the simulated patterns of mean changes in key meteorological drivers, such as temperature and surface insolation. Some regions, such as the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, show greater agreement across groups, whereas others, such as the West Coast and the Southeast, show wider disagreements. How isoprene nitrate chemistry is represented in the different modeling systems is an additional critical factor in the simulated O3 response to climate change.

  10. Assessing the health equity impacts of regional land-use plan making: An equity focussed health impact assessment of alternative patterns of development of the Whitsunday Hinterland and Mackay Regional Plan, Australia (Short report)

    SciTech Connect

    Gunning, Colleen; Harris, Patrick; Mallett, John

    2011-07-15

    Health service and partners completed an equity focussed health impact assessment to influence the consideration of health and equity within regional land-use planning in Queensland, Australia. This project demonstrated how an equity oriented assessment matrix can assist in testing regional planning scenarios. It is hoped that this HIA will contribute to the emerging interest in ensuring that potential differential health impacts continue to be considered as part of land-use planning processes.

  11. Assessing Impact of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport on Regional Air Quality and Climate: What Satellites Can Help

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Hongbin

    2011-01-01

    Mounting evidence for intercontinental transport of aerosols suggests that aerosols from a region could significantly affect climate and air quality in downwind regions and continents. Current assessment of these impacts for the most part has been based on global model simulations that show large variability. The aerosol intercontinental transport and its influence on air quality and climate involve many processes at local, regional, and intercontinental scales. There is a pressing need to establish modeling systems that bridge the wide range of scales. The modeling systems need to be evaluated and constrained by observations, including satellite measurements. Columnar loadings of dust and combustion aerosols can be derived from the MODIS and MISR measurements of total aerosol optical depth and particle size and shape information. Characteristic transport heights of dust and combustion aerosols can be determined from the CALIPSO lidar and AIRS measurements. CALIPSO liar and OMI UV technique also have a unique capability of detecting aerosols above clouds, which could offer some insights into aerosol lofting processes and the importance of above-cloud transport pathway. In this presentation, I will discuss our efforts of integrating these satellite measurements and models to assess the significance of intercontinental transport of dust and combustion aerosols on regional air quality and climate.

  12. Assessing the impact of regional rainfall variability on rapid pesticide leaching potential.

    PubMed

    McGrath, Gavan; Hinz, Christoph; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2010-04-01

    The timing and magnitude of rainfall events are known to be dominant controls on pesticide migration into streams and groundwater, by triggering rapid flow processes, such as preferential flow and surface runoff. A better understanding of how regional differences in rainfall impact rapid leaching risk is required in order to match the scale at which water regulation occurs. We estimated the potential amount of rapid leaching, and the frequencies of these events in a case study of the southwest of Western Australia, for one soil type and a range of linearly sorbing, first order degrading chemicals. At the regional scale, those chemicals with moderate sorption and long half lives were the most susceptible to rapid transport within a year of application. Within the region, this susceptibility varied depending upon application time and seasonality in storm patterns. Those chemicals and areas with a high potential for rapid transport on average, also experience the greatest inter-annual variability in rapid leaching, as measured by the coefficient of variation. The timing and frequencies of rapid leaching events appeared to strongly relate to an area's relative susceptibility to rapid leaching. In the study region the results also suggested that frontal rainfall dominates rapid leaching along the western and southern coasts while convective thunderstorms play a greater role in the arid east. PMID:20079952

  13. Dose discrepancies in the buildup region and their impact on dose calculations for IMRT fields

    SciTech Connect

    Hsu, Shu-Hui; Moran, Jean M.; Chen Yu; Kulasekere, Ravi; Roberson, Peter L.

    2010-05-15

    Purpose: Dose accuracy in the buildup region for radiotherapy treatment planning suffers from challenges in both measurement and calculation. This study investigates the dosimetry in the buildup region at normal and oblique incidences for open and IMRT fields and assesses the quality of the treatment planning calculations. Methods: This study was divided into three parts. First, percent depth doses and profiles (for 5x5, 10x10, 20x20, and 30x30 cm{sup 2} field sizes at 0 deg., 45 deg., and 70 deg. incidences) were measured in the buildup region in Solid Water using an Attix parallel plate chamber and Kodak XV film, respectively. Second, the parameters in the empirical contamination (EC) term of the convolution/superposition (CVSP) calculation algorithm were fitted based on open field measurements. Finally, seven segmental head-and-neck IMRT fields were measured on a flat phantom geometry and compared to calculations using {gamma} and dose-gradient compensation (C) indices to evaluate the impact of residual discrepancies and to assess the adequacy of the contamination term for IMRT fields. Results: Local deviations between measurements and calculations for open fields were within 1% and 4% in the buildup region for normal and oblique incidences, respectively. The C index with 5%/1 mm criteria for IMRT fields ranged from 89% to 99% and from 96% to 98% at 2 mm and 10 cm depths, respectively. The quality of agreement in the buildup region for open and IMRT fields is comparable to that in nonbuildup regions. Conclusions: The added EC term in CVSP was determined to be adequate for both open and IMRT fields. Due to the dependence of calculation accuracy on (1) EC modeling, (2) internal convolution and density grid sizes, (3) implementation details in the algorithm, and (4) the accuracy of measurements used for treatment planning system commissioning, the authors recommend an evaluation of the accuracy of near-surface dose calculations as a part of treatment planning

  14. Global Impacts of Long-Term Land Cover Changes Within China's Densely Populated Rural Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, E. C.

    2006-12-01

    Long-term changes in land cover are usually investigated in terms of large-scale change processes such as urban expansion, deforestation and land conversion to agriculture. Yet China's densely populated agricultural regions, which cover more than 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia, have been transformed profoundly over the past fifty years by fine-scale changes in land cover caused by unprecedented changes in population, technology and social conditions. Using a regional sampling and upscaling design coupled with high-resolution landscape change measurements at five field sites, we investigated long-term changes in land cover and ecological processes, circa 1945 to 2002, within and across China's densely populated agricultural regions. As expected, the construction of buildings and roads increased impervious surface area over time, but the total net increase was surprising, being similar in magnitude to the total current extent of China's cities. Agricultural land area declined over the same period, while tree cover increased, by about 10%, driven by tree planting and regrowth around new buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture, improved forestry, and declines in annual crop cultivation. Though changes in impervious surface areas were closely related to changes in population density, long-term changes in agricultural land and tree cover were unrelated to populated density and required explanation by more complex models with strong regional and biophysical components. Moreover, most of these changes occurred primarily at fine spatial scales (< 30 m), under the threshold for conventional global and regional land cover change measurements. Given that these changes in built structures and vegetation cover have the potential to contribute substantially to regional and global changes in biogeochemistry, hydrology, and land-atmosphere interactions, future investigations of these changes and their impacts across Monsoon Asia would benefit from models

  15. The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get

  16. Potential Impacts of Legacy and Current Uranium Mining in the Grand Canyon Region of Northern Arizona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bills, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Grand Canyon region in Northern Arizona contains high grade uranium resources hosted in geologic features called breccia pipes that represent an important component of the Nation's energy resource base. The exploration and extraction of uranium ore from these deposits poses potential risks to humans and biota of the Grand Canyon watershed. These issues led the Secretary of the Interior to a Record of Decision in January 2012 to withdraw over a million acres of federal lands in the region from mineral entry for the next 20 years. Dissolved uranium and other major ions and trace elements occur naturally in surface water and in groundwater as a result of precipitation infiltrating from the surface to perched water-bearing zones in contact with mineralized breccia pipes or in contact with sandstones with high trace element content, and to underlying regional aquifers. Discharge from these water-bearing zones and aquifers occur as seeps and springs throughout the region and provide valuable habitat and water sources for plants and animals. Runoff and groundwater flow in the Grand Canyon region is also a component of the water supply for over 25 million people in the Southwestern United States. Soil and sediment in the region can naturally contain as much a 5.6 micrograms per gram of uranium and naturally occurring dissolved uranium in groundwater is about 5.0 μg/L or less, except in proximity to uranium ore bodies where it tends to be greater. The current discharge of dissolved uranium from the Grand Canyon region to Lake Mead have concentrations of 4.0 μg/L or less resulting in a total annual load of uranium delivered to Lake Mead of about 60 tons per year. Increased amounts of radioactive materials and trace metals on the surface and in groundwater are related to uranium mining activity in the watershed in the 1970s and 1980s. Monitoring and data collection from 2010 to 2012 confirm this legacy impact in some parts of the Grand Canyon watershed, but have yet to

  17. The Impact of Varying Statutory Arrangements on Spatial Data Sharing and Access in Regional NRM Bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paudyal, D. R.; McDougall, K.; Apan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Spatial information plays an important role in many social, environmental and economic decisions and increasingly acknowledged as a national resource essential for wider societal and environmental benefits. Natural Resource Management is one area where spatial information can be used for improved planning and decision making processes. In Australia, state government organisations are the custodians of spatial information necessary for natural resource management and regional NRM bodies are responsible to regional delivery of NRM activities. The access and sharing of spatial information between government agencies and regional NRM bodies is therefore as an important issue for improving natural resource management outcomes. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the current status of spatial information access, sharing and use with varying statutory arrangements and its impacts on spatial data infrastructure (SDI) development in catchment management sector in Australia. Further, it critically examined whether any trends and significant variations exist due to different institutional arrangements (statutory versus non-statutory) or not. A survey method was used to collect primary data from 56 regional natural resource management (NRM) bodies responsible for catchment management in Australia. Descriptive statistics method was used to show the similarities and differences between statutory and non-statutory arrangements. The key factors which influence sharing and access to spatial information are also explored. The results show the current statutory and administrative arrangements and regional focus for natural resource management is reasonable from a spatial information management perspective and provides an opportunity for building SDI at the catchment scale. However, effective institutional arrangements should align catchment SDI development activities with sub-national and national SDI development activities to address catchment management issues. We found minor

  18. Using Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Data to Assess Impact Crater Modification in the Arrhenius Region of Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garvin, J. B.; Grosfils, E. B.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.

    2000-01-01

    This study combines MOLA altimetry with photographic imagery to begin assessing the extent to which sedimentary and volcanic processes have affected impact crater morphology in the Arrhenius region of Mars.

  19. The Impact of Urbanization on the Regional Aeolian Dynamics of an Arid Coastal Dunefield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Alexander; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The anthropogenic impact on the geomorphology of many landscapes are inextricably connected but are often neglected due to the difficulty in making a direct link between the quasi natural and human processes that impact the environment. This research focuses on the Maspalomas dunefield, located on the southern coast of Gran Canaria, in the Canary Island Archipelago. The tourism industry in Maspalomas has led to intensive urbanization since the early 1960's over an elevated alluvial terrace that extends into the dunefield. Urbanization has had a substantial impact on both the regional airflow conditions and the geomorphological development of this transverse dune system. As a result airflow and sediment has been redirected in response to the large scale construction efforts. In situ data was collected during field campaigns using high resolution three-dimensional anemometry to identify the various modifications within the dunefield relative to incipient regional airflow conditions. The goal is to analyse the flow conditions near the urbanized terrace in relation to areas that are located away from the influence of the buildings and to verify numerical modelling results. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling is used in order to expand the areal extent of analysis by providing an understanding of relevant flow dynamics (e.g. flow velocity, directionality, turbulence, shear stresses, etc.) at the mesoscale. An integrative three dimensional model for CFD simulations was created to address the impact of both the urban area (i.e. hotels, commercial centers, and residential communities) as well as the dune terrain on regional flow conditions. Early modelling results show that there is significant flow modification around the urban terrace with streamline compression, acceleration, and deflection of flow on the windward side of the development. Consequently downwind of the terrace there is an area of highly turbulent flow conditions and well developed separation and

  20. Environmental impact assessment of mountain tourism in developing regions: A study in Ladakh, Indian Himalaya

    SciTech Connect

    Geneletti, Davide; Dawa, Dorje

    2009-07-15

    Mountain tourism in developing countries is becoming a growing environmental concern due to extreme seasonality, lack of suitable infrastructures and planning, and interference with fragile ecosystems and protected areas. This paper presents a study devoted to assess the adverse environmental impacts of tourism, and in particular of trekking-related activities, in Ladakh, Indian Himalaya. The proposed approach is based on the use of Geographical Information System (GIS) modeling and remote sensing imageries to cope with the lack of data that affect the region. First, stressors associated with trekking, and environmental receptors potentially affected were identified. Subsequently, a baseline study on stressors (trail use, waste dumping, camping, pack animal grazing and off-road driving) and receptors (soil, water, wildlife, vegetation) was conducted through field work, data collection, and data processing supported by GIS. Finally, impacts were modeled by considering the intensity of the stressors, and the vulnerability and the value of the receptors. The results were spatially aggregated into watershed units, and combined to generate composite impact maps. The study concluded that the most affected watersheds are located in the central and southeastern part of Ladakh, along some of the most visited trails and within the Hemis and the Tsokar Tsomoriri National parks. The main objective of the study was to understand patterns of tourism-induced environmental degradation, so as to support mitigation interventions, as well as the development of suitable tourism policies.

  1. Mechanisms of impact of greenhouse gases on the Earth's ozone layer in the Polar Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zadorozhny, Alexander; Dyominov, Igor

    A numerical 2-D zonally averaged interactive dynamical radiative-photochemical model of the atmosphere including aerosol physics is used to examine the impact of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O on the future long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer, in particular on its expected recovery after reduction of anthropogenic discharges of chlorine and bromine compounds into the atmosphere. The model allows calculating self-consistently diabatic circu-lation, temperature, gaseous composition of the troposphere and stratosphere at latitudes from the North to South Poles, as well as distribution of sulphate aerosol particles and polar strato-spheric clouds (PSCs) of types I and II. The scenarios of expected changes of the anthropogenic pollutants for the period from 1980 through 2050 are taken from Climate Change 2001. The processes, which determine the influence of anthropogenic growth of atmospheric abun-dance of the greenhouse gases on the long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer in the Polar Regions, have been studied in details. Expected cooling of the stratosphere caused by increases of greenhouse gases, most importantly CO2, essentially influences the ozone layer by two ways: through temperature dependencies of the gas phase reaction rates and through enhancement of polar ozone depletion via increased PSC formation. The model calculations show that a weak-ness in efficiencies of all gas phase catalytic cycles of the ozone destruction due to cooling of the stratosphere is a dominant mechanism of the impact of the greenhouse gases on the ozone layer in Antarctic as well as at the lower latitudes. This mechanism leads to a significant acceleration of the ozone layer recovery here because of the greenhouse gases growth. On the contrary, the mechanism of the impact of the greenhouse gases on the ozone through PSC modification be-gins to be more effective in Arctic in comparison with the gas phase mechanism in springs after about 2020, which leads to retard

  2. Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

  3. Impact of region contouring variability on image-based focal therapy evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibson, Eli; Donaldson, Ian A.; Shah, Taimur T.; Hu, Yipeng; Ahmed, Hashim U.; Barratt, Dean C.

    2016-03-01

    Motivation: Focal therapy is an emerging low-morbidity treatment option for low-intermediate risk prostate cancer; however, challenges remain in accurately delivering treatment to specified targets and determining treatment success. Registered multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MPMRI) acquired before and after treatment can support focal therapy evaluation and optimization; however, contouring variability, when defining the prostate, the clinical target volume (CTV) and the ablation region in images, reduces the precision of quantitative image-based focal therapy evaluation metrics. To inform the interpretation and clarify the limitations of such metrics, we investigated inter-observer contouring variability and its impact on four metrics. Methods: Pre-therapy and 2-week-post-therapy standard-of-care MPMRI were acquired from 5 focal cryotherapy patients. Two clinicians independently contoured, on each slice, the prostate (pre- and post-treatment) and the dominant index lesion CTV (pre-treatment) in the T2-weighted MRI, and the ablated region (post-treatment) in the dynamic-contrast- enhanced MRI. For each combination of clinician contours, post-treatment images were registered to pre-treatment images using a 3D biomechanical-model-based registration of prostate surfaces, and four metrics were computed: the proportion of the target tissue region that was ablated and the target:ablated region volume ratio for each of two targets (the CTV and an expanded planning target volume). Variance components analysis was used to measure the contribution of each type of contour to the variance in the therapy evaluation metrics. Conclusions: 14-23% of evaluation metric variance was attributable to contouring variability (including 6-12% from ablation region contouring); reducing this variability could improve the precision of focal therapy evaluation metrics.

  4. Impact of Land Use Change over North America as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chacon, A.; Sushama, L.; Beltrami, H.

    2014-12-01

    This study investigates the biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change, particularly crops, on the regional climate of North America, using the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this effect, two simulations are performed with CRCM5 with different land cover datasets - one corresponding to the potential vegetation (i.e. without land use change) and the other corresponding to current land use. Most of the land use changes are concentrated over the US mid-west and south-central Canada, where forests and grasses have been replaced by crops. This transformation changes the surface parameters, particularly vegetation fractional area, leaf area index, albedo, roughness length and rooting depth among other variables, in the regions where land cover change takes place in these simulations. Both simulations span the 1988-2012 period and are driven by ERA-Interim at the lateral boundaries. The sea surface temperature and sea ice cover that vary inter-annually are also taken from ERA-Interim. Results suggest that regions where forests/grasses were replaced by crops generally show increases in albedo, particularly during the spring, fall and winter seasons, with the increase in albedo being largest for winter. This higher increase in albedo during winter is due to a snow-mediated positive feedback. The increased albedo values during winter, spring and fall are reflected in the cooler 2 meter temperature obtained in the simulation with land use change, compared to that with potential vegetation. Some cooling is observed in the summer for the simulation with land use change, mostly due to the increased latent heat fluxes. Increases in precipitation are noted for these regions, but are not statistically significant.

  5. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Precipitation Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles in clear and cloudy regions with accuracy which approaches that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model using WRF-Var. Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in clear and partly cloudy regions, and uncontaminated portions of retrievals above clouds in overcast regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts resulting from improved thermodynamic fields. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  6. The impacts of thawing permafrost on tundra lakes, Mackenzie Delta region, NWT, Canada. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kokelj, S.; Thompson, M. S.; Lantz, T.; Thienpont, J.; Pisaric, M. F.; Smol, J. P.; Blais, J.; Zajdlik, B.

    2009-12-01

    Many arctic regions with abundant lakes and ponds are characterized by ice-rich terrain sensitive to thermokarst disturbance. In the Mackenzie Delta region, retrogressive thaw slumps commonly develop adjacent to tundra lakes and may impact several hectares of terrain. The numbers, size and growth rates of slumps have increased significantly since the 1970s with rising air and permafrost temperatures. To examine the chemical effects of thawing permafrost on lake water quality we assessed water chemistry for large number of slump-disturbed and undisturbed lakes across tundra uplands in the Mackenzie Delta region. The environmental factors typically evoked to explain variation in tundra lake water quality, including surficial geology and proximity to the treeline or to the coast, were subordinate to the main driver, permafrost degradation. Thaw slump-affected lakes had elevated ionic concentrations and water clarity in comparison with undisturbed lakes. The strength of the ionic impact was positively associated with the proportion of catchment affected by slumping and inversely related to disturbance age. We also found that fire-induced active-layer deepening had a detectable influence on lake water ionic strength. Preliminary evidence suggests sedimentary diatom assemblages track the changes in chemical and physical limnology coincident with the timing of thermokarst slumping, and thus, may prove a valuable tool for inferring changes at the base of the aquatic food web in these lakes. In a warming arctic, we can anticipate that thermokarst processes will increase in importance as a driver of ionic chemistry and optical properties of small lakes and ponds with potential to alter aquatic food webs.

  7. Invited review: climate change impacts in polar regions: lessons from Antarctic moss bank archives.

    PubMed

    Royles, Jessica; Griffiths, Howard

    2015-03-01

    Mosses are the dominant plants in polar and boreal regions, areas which are experiencing rapid impacts of regional warming. Long-term monitoring programmes provide some records of the rate of recent climate change, but moss peat banks contain an unrivalled temporal record of past climate change on terrestrial plant Antarctic systems. We summarise the current understanding of climatic proxies and determinants of moss growth for contrasting continental and maritime Antarctic regions, as informed by 13C and 18O signals in organic material. Rates of moss accumulation are more than three times higher in the maritime Antarctic than continental Antarctica with growing season length being a critical determinant of growth rate, and high carbon isotope discrimination values reflecting optimal hydration conditions. Correlation plots of 13C and 18O values show that species (Chorisodontium aciphyllum / Polytrichum strictum) and growth form (hummock / bank) are the major determinants of measured isotope ratios. The interplay between moss growth form, photosynthetic physiology, water status and isotope composition are compared with developments of secondary proxies, such as chlorophyll fluorescence. These approaches provide a framework to consider the potential impact of climate change on terrestrial Antarctic habitats as well as having implications for future studies of temperate, boreal and Arctic peatlands. There are many urgent ecological and environmental problems in the Arctic related to mosses in a changing climate, but the geographical ranges of species and life-forms are difficult to track individually. Our goal was to translate what we have learned from the more simple systems in Antarctica, for application to Arctic habitats. PMID:25336089

  8. Shifts in plant functional types have time-dependent and regionally variable impacts on dryland ecosystem water balance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Burke, Ingrid C.

    2014-01-01

    5. Synthesis. This study provides a novel, regional-scale assessment of how plant functional type transitions may impact ecosystem water balance in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems of North America. Results illustrate that the ecohydrological consequences of changing vegetation depend strongly on climate and suggest that decreasing woody plant abundance may have only limited impact on evapotranspiration and water yield.

  9. 78 FR 63463 - Intent To Prepare a Regional Environmental Impact Statement for Surface Coal and Lignite Mining...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-24

    ...The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is preparing a Regional Environmental Impact Statement (REIS) to analyze the direct, indirect, and cumulative effects associated with a decision to develop and assess data and information with waters of the United States and other relevant resources that may be potentially impacted by future surface coal and lignite mine expansions in the state of Texas......

  10. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  11. Solar wind interaction with comet 67P: Impacts of corotating interaction regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edberg, N. J. T.; Eriksson, A. I.; Odelstad, E.; Vigren, E.; Andrews, D. J.; Johansson, F.; Burch, J. L.; Carr, C. M.; Cupido, E.; Glassmeier, K.-H.; Goldstein, R.; Halekas, J. S.; Henri, P.; Koenders, C.; Mandt, K.; Mokashi, P.; Nemeth, Z.; Nilsson, H.; Ramstad, R.; Richter, I.; Wieser, G. Stenberg

    2016-02-01

    We present observations from the Rosetta Plasma Consortium of the effects of stormy solar wind on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Four corotating interaction regions (CIRs), where the first event has possibly merged with a coronal mass ejection, are traced from Earth via Mars (using Mars Express and Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission) to comet 67P from October to December 2014. When the comet is 3.1-2.7 AU from the Sun and the neutral outgassing rate ˜1025-1026 s-1, the CIRs significantly influence the cometary plasma environment at altitudes down to 10-30 km. The ionospheric low-energy (˜5 eV) plasma density increases significantly in all events, by a factor of >2 in events 1 and 2 but less in events 3 and 4. The spacecraft potential drops below -20 V upon impact when the flux of electrons increases. The increased density is likely caused by compression of the plasma environment, increased particle impact ionization, and possibly charge exchange processes and acceleration of mass-loaded plasma back to the comet ionosphere. During all events, the fluxes of suprathermal (˜10-100 eV) electrons increase significantly, suggesting that the heating mechanism of these electrons is coupled to the solar wind energy input. At impact the magnetic field strength in the coma increases by a factor of 2-5 as more interplanetary magnetic field piles up around the comet. During two CIR impact events, we observe possible plasma boundaries forming, or moving past Rosetta, as the strong solar wind compresses the cometary plasma environment. We also discuss the possibility of seeing some signatures of the ionospheric response to tail disconnection events.

  12. The impacts of precipitation on land- atmosphere interaction over the semi-arid Loess Plateau region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    WANG, G.; Huang, J.

    2015-12-01

    To understand the impacts of precipitation on land-atmosphere interactions over semi-arid regions, 6-year continuous measurements data in situ were analyzed to investigate the influence of precipitation on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, energy partitioning and plant growing over Loess Plateau in northwest China. Results show that annual precipitation had obvious inter-annual variability, and the variation of soil moisture; evaporation and CO2 flux were very consistently with the annual cycle and intensity of precipitation. Soil moisture is the key participant in land-atmosphere interaction. However, as the water shortage and disconnected from water table over the semi-arid region, it is much more sensitive with precipitation compensation and evaporation feedbacks. Soil water can cooling the near surface air temperature by evaporation (latent heat flux), and also as the main energy partitioning consumer of net radiation in humid area or pluvial period in arid area, yet it was water limited in arid and semi-arid region, sensible heat flux predominated net radiation for enhancing the surface air temperature. We also found that soil moisture profile significantly affected the plant physiology, which was also consistent with the annual cycle and intensity of precipitation.

  13. HIMALA: Climate Impacts on Glaciers, Snow, and Hydrology in the Himalayan Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Ouyang, Hua; Habib, Shahid; Shrestha, Basanta; Shrestha, Mandira; Panday, Prajjwal; Tzortziou, Maria; Policelli, Frederick; Artan, Guleid; Giriraj, Amarnath; Bajracharya, Sagar R.; Racoviteanu, Adina

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world s population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

  14. HIMALA: climate impacts on glaciers, snow, and hydrology in the Himalayan region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Ouyang, Hua; Habib, Shahid; Shrestha, Basanta; Shrestha, Mandira; Panday, Prajjwal; Tzortziou, Maria; Policelli, Frederick; Artan, Guleid; Giriraj, Amarnath; Bajracharya, Sagar R.; Racoviteanu, Adina

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world's population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

  15. The impact of cool roofs in different climatic regions: A quantitative empirical analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petry, Kimberly Johanna

    This research investigated regional climate differences and weather impacts on the effectiveness of cool roofs. In most US climate zones, cool roofs can reduce energy consumption because they reflect more sunlight and heat than standard roofs. Since temperatures are expected to increase in many regions, cool roofs may offer greater energy and cost savings than currently estimated. Energy consumption by Department of Energy (DOE) Research Laboratory buildings across the US with cool and standard roofs were assessed using metered energy datasets collected from 2003-2013. Statistical tests were conducted to compare differences in energy consumption of buildings between cool and standard roofs at sites in different climatic regions. In order to better understand the effectiveness of cool roof technologies in a future that is expected to become increasingly warmer, data collected from weather stations near each DOE site were used to interpret the potential influences of weather patterns on cool roof energy savings. This research confirmed that cool roofs do reduce energy consumption, especially at sites with warmer summers and milder winters. Regression analyses of energy consumption and temperature data were conducted to identify associations between air temperatures and heating and cooling degree-days with seasonal energy consumption. While the energy consumption of buildings with cool roofs was generally less than buildings with standard roofs, the differences in energy consumption varied depending on building use and building size.

  16. Farm gate environmental impacts of beef production in the Northern Plains and Midwest regions of the U.S.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Cradle-to-farm gate environmental impacts of beef production in two cattle producing regions were assessed as part of an on-going national sustainability study of the U.S. beef value chain launched by the Beef Checkoff. Region-specific data on common ranch and feedlot management practices were chara...

  17. Examining the Impact of Nitrous Acid Chemistry on Ozone and PM over the Pearl River Delta Region

    EPA Science Inventory

    The impact of nitrous acid (HONO) chemistry on regional ozone and particulate matter in Pearl River Delta region was investigated using the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the CB05 mechanism. Model simulations were conducted for a ten-day period in Oct...

  18. Impact of Aircraft Emissions on Reactive Nitrogen over the North Atlantic Flight Corridor Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koike, M.; Kondo, Y.; Ikeda, H.; Gregory, G. L.; Anderson, B. E.; Sachse, G. W.; Blake, D.; Liu, S. C.; Singh, H. B.; Thompson, A.

    1999-01-01

    The impact of aircraft emissions on reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere (UT) and lowermost stratosphere (LS) was estimated using the NO(y)-O3 correlation obtained during the SASS Ozone and NO(x) Experiment (SONEX) carried out over the US continent and North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) region in October and November 1997. To evaluate the large scale impact, we made a reference NO(y)-O3 relationship in air masses, upon which aircraft emissions were considered to have little impact. For this purpose, the integrated input of NO(x) from aircraft into an air mass along a 10-d back trajectory (DELTA-NO(y)) was calculated based on the ANCAT/EC2 emission inventory. The excess NO(y) (dNO(y)) was calculated from the observed NO(y) and the reference NO(y)-O3 relationship. As a result, a weak positive correlation was found between the dNO(y) and DELTA-NO(y), and dNO(y) and NO(x)/NO(y) values, while no positive correlation between the dNO(y) and CO values was found, suggesting that dNO(y) values can be used as a measure of the NO(x) input from aircraft emissions. The excess NO(y) values calculated from another NO(y)-O3 reference relationship made using in-situ CN data also agreed with these dNO(y) values, within the uncertainties. At the NAFC region (45 N - 60 N), the median value of dNO(y) in the troposphere increased with altitude above 9 km and reached 70 pptv (20% of NO(y)) at 11 km. The excess NO(x) was estimated to be about half of the dNO(y) values, corresponding to 30% of the observed NO(x) level. Higher dNO(y) values were generally found in air masses where O3 = 75 - 125 ppbv, suggesting a more pronounced effect around the tropopause. The median value of dNO(y) in the stratosphere at the NAFC region at 8.5 - 11.5 km was about 120 pptv. The higher dNO(y) values in the LS were probably due to the accumulated effect of aircraft emissions, given the long residence time of affected air in the LS. Similar dNO(y) values were also obtained in air masses sampled over

  19. A Novel Approach to Simulating Land Use Impacts on Regional Climate and Ecosystem Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagley, J. E.; Desai, A. R.; Foley, J. A.; Barford, C.; Sacks, W.

    2009-12-01

    In order to quantify the impact of shifts in land use patterns on the climate, a complementary approach to global climate models (GCMs) has been developed. The model presented here is specifically designed to investigate the impacts of changing land use on the earth’s surface and lower atmosphere. It is capable of testing the impact of an ensemble of land use scenarios quickly and easily with limited input requirements. Here we present a comparison of modeled land surface and atmospheric boundary layer variables to several field experiment observation sites, as well as initial studies on impacts of a variety of land-use perturbations on regional climate. The motivation for the development of this model comes from observations that use of land by humans has become a strong forcing on the global climate system. Since 1850, changes in anthropogenic land use have accounted for nearly 35% of global CO2 emissions, and croplands and pastures have now become one of the largest biomes on earth (Foley et al 2005). While the carbon emissions associated with land use change are critical, the impact of changing land cover on earth’s climate is not limited to the sequestration or release of carbon. Conversion of natural biomes to croplands or pastures also upsets the services that an ecosystem provides by perturbing the surface water, energy and momentum balances. Historically, the tool used to investigate the impacts of changing land use has been the GCM. However, GCM experiments can be both expensive to run and difficult to interpret. In addition, the strength of GCMs lie in their ability to simulate changes of large-scale patterns and circulations of the climate system over long periods of time, and not local and regional scales where results are commonly biased relative to observations. The model presented in this work attempts to alleviate some of these problems. This is partially achieved through the following highlights of the model: o A data driven land surface model

  20. Regional economic impacts of water management alternatives: the case of Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA.

    PubMed

    Leistritz, F Larry; Leitch, Jay A; Bangsund, Dean A

    2002-12-01

    Devils Lake, located in a closed basin in northeastern North Dakota has over a century-long history of highly fluctuating water levels. The lake has risen nearly 25 feet (7.7 m) since 1993, more than doubling its surface area. Rising water levels have affected rural lands, transportation routes, and communities near the lake. In response to rising lake levels, Federal, state and local agencies have adopted a three-part approach to flood damage reduction, consisting of (1) upper basin water management to reduce the amount of water reaching the lake, (2) protection for structures and infrastructure if the lake continues to rise, and (3) developing an emergency outlet to release some lake water. The purpose of this study was to provide information about the net regional economic effects of a proposed emergency outlet for Devils Lake. An input-output model was used to estimate the regional economic effects of the outlet, under two scenarios: (1) the most likely future situation (MLS) and (2) a best case situation (BCS) (i.e., where the benefits from the outlet would be greatest), albeit an unlikely one. Regional economic effects of the outlet include effects on transportation (road and railroad construction), agriculture (land kept in production, returned to production sooner, or kept in production longer), residential relocations, and outlet construction expenditures. Effects are measured as changes in gross business volume (gross receipts) for various sectors, secondary employment, and local tax collections. The net regional economic effects of the proposed outlet would be relatively small, and consideration of these economic impacts would not strengthen the case for an outlet. PMID:12503500

  1. Impact of land cover characterization on regional climate modeling over West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Pal, Jeremy S.; Wang, Guiling L.; Lawrence, Peter J.

    2016-01-01

    The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998-2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.

  2. Impact of Agricultural Practice on Regional Climate in a CoupledLand Surface Mesoscale Model

    SciTech Connect

    Cooley, H.S.; Riley, W.J.; Torn, M.S.; He, Y.

    2004-07-01

    The land surface has been shown to form strong feedbacks with climate due to linkages between atmospheric conditions and terrestrial ecosystem exchanges of energy, momentum, water, and trace gases. Although often ignored in modeling studies, land management itself may form significant feedbacks. Because crops are harvested earlier under drier conditions, regional air temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, for example, affect harvest timing, particularly of rain-fed crops. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate. We applied a coupled climate(MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to examine the effects of early and late winter wheat harvest on regional climate in the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility in the Southern Great Plains, where winter wheat accounts for 20 percent of the land area. Within the winter wheat region, simulated 2 m air temperature was 1.3 C warmer in the Early Harvest scenario at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm and wetter in the 10-20 cm layer. Midday soils were 2.5 C warmer in the harvested area at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Harvest also dramatically altered latent and sensible heat fluxes. Although differences between scenarios diminished once both scenarios were harvested, the short-term impacts of land management on climate were comparable to those from land cover change demonstrated in other studies.

  3. Regional economic impacts of changes in electricity rates resulting from Western Area Power Administration`s power marketing alternatives

    SciTech Connect

    Allison, T.; Griffes, P.; Edwards, B.K.

    1995-03-01

    This technical memorandum describes an analysis of regional economic impacts resulting from changes in retail electricity rates due to six power marketing programs proposed by Western Area Power Administration (Western). Regional economic impacts of changes in rates are estimated in terms of five key regional economic variables: population, gross regional product, disposable income, employment, and household income. The REMI (Regional Impact Models, Inc.) and IMPLAN (Impact Analysis for Planning) models simulate economic impacts in nine subregions in the area in which Western power is sold for the years 1993, 2000, and 2008. Estimates show that impacts on aggregate economic activity in any of the subregions or years would be minimal for three reasons. First, the utilities that buy power from Western sell only a relatively small proportion of the total electricity sold in any of the subregions. Second, reliance of Western customers on Western power is fairly low in each subregion. Finally, electricity is not a significant input cost for any industry or for households in any subregion.

  4. Evaluation of the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of 6 weeks of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

  5. Impacts of natural gas mining on regional methane levels in Pennsylvania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lembeck-Edens, A. M.; Fuentes, J. D.; Martins, D. K.; Grannas, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    Increased natural gas exploration has been hypothesized to be a strong source of atmospheric methane, leading to enhanced regional methane levels. Fugitive methane emissions can result from leaky natural gas wells and pipelines. Pennsylvania is experiencing rapid natural gas well development and operation. In the Pennsylvania Marcellus Shale region, the density of natural gas wells is increasing. Therefore, a field study took place during 8 June to 6 August 2013 to investigate the magnitude of fugitive methane emissions near well sites and along established pipelines, as well as the spatial distribution of methane throughout Pennsylvania. The necessary instruments were mounted on a mobile platform (six-passenger van) to make transects running from southwestern to northeastern Pennsylvania where the highest density of wells is already established. Methane and carbon dioxide mixing ratios and their respective 13C isotopes were detected using a cavity ring-down spectrometer while the van was moving along pipelines or near natural gas well sites. Air sampling was done in areas away from natural well sites to establish the baseline of methane levels in the rural atmosphere. Also, air sampling took place around barns to distinguish the contribution of cattle to the atmospheric loading of methane. In the rural atmosphere, away from natural gas wells, methane levels remained around (baseline) 1.75 parts per millions (ppm). Methane levels in areas impacted by natural gas wells were higher than the baseline. Along pipelines, methane levels ranged from baseline levels of 1.75 ppm to 5.00 ppm. Near wells, plumes of methane-enriched air reached as high as 15.30 ppm. Although leaks from wells have been noted in previous studies, this investigation suggested that wells intermittently leaked methane. The main conclusion from the present study is that fugitive emissions from natural gas wells and pipelines contribute to enhancing the regional methane levels during daytime

  6. Regional impacts of iron-light colimitation in a global biogeochemical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galbraith, E. D.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; Hiscock, M. R.

    2010-03-01

    Laboratory and field studies have revealed that iron has multiple roles in phytoplankton physiology, with particular importance for light-harvesting cellular machinery. However, although iron-limitation is explicitly included in numerous biogeochemical/ecosystem models, its implementation varies, and its effect on the efficiency of light harvesting is often ignored. Given the complexity of the ocean environment, it is difficult to predict the consequences of applying different iron limitation schemes. Here we explore the interaction of iron and nutrient cycles in an ocean general circulation model using a new, streamlined model of ocean biogeochemistry. Building on previously published parameterizations of photoadaptation and export production, the Biogeochemistry with Light Iron Nutrients and Gasses (BLING) model is constructed with only four explicit tracers but including macronutrient and micronutrient limitation, light limitation, and an implicit treatment of community structure. The structural simplicity of this computationally-inexpensive model allows us to clearly isolate the global effect that iron availability has on maximum light-saturated photosynthesis rates vs. the effect iron has on photosynthetic efficiency. We find that the effect on light-saturated photosynthesis rates is dominant, negating the importance of photosynthetic efficiency in most regions, especially the cold waters of the Southern Ocean. The primary exceptions to this occur in iron-rich regions of the Northern Hemisphere, where high light-saturated photosynthesis rates allow photosynthetic efficiency to play a more important role. In other words, the ability to efficiently harvest photons has little effect in regions where light-saturated growth rates are low. Additionally, we speculate that the phytoplankton cells dominating iron-limited regions tend to have relatively high photosynthetic efficiency, due to reduced packaging effects. If this speculation is correct, it would imply that

  7. Investigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization and Global Warming in a Coastal Tropical Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comarazamy, D. E.; Gonzalez, J.; Luvall, J. C.

    2010-12-01

    The goal of this project is to gain a better understanding of the climate impacts caused by the combined effects of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes and increasing global concentrations of green house gases (GHG) in tropical coastal areas, taking as the test case the densely populated northeast region of the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. The research uses an integrated approach of high-resolution remote sensing information linked to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which was employed to perform ensembles of climate simulations (combining 2-LCLU and 2-GHG concentration scenarios). Reconstructed agricultural maps are used to define past LCLU, and combined with reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SST) for the same period form the PAST climate scenario (1951-1956); while the PRESENT scenario (2000-2004) was additionally supported by the high resolution remote sensing data. The climate reconstruction approach is validated with available observed climate data from surface weather stations for both periods simulated. The selection of the past and present climate scenarios considers large-scale biases (i.e. ENSO/NAO) as reflected in the region of interest. Direct and cross comparison of the results is allowing quantifying single, combined, and competitive effects. Results indicate that urban sprawl dominates the pattern and magnitude of maximum temperature differences, while global GHG have dominant effects on minimum temperatures (following regional tendencies). To further investigate impacts of land use the Thermal Response Number (TRN) and Bowen ratio are analyzed. The TRN is a surface property defined as the ratio of the surface net radiation to the rate of change in surface temperature over shorts periods of time, it expresses how a particular surface partitions energy into non-radiative surface energy budget terms (i.e., latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and soil heat flux or storage). Natural vegetated surfaces have a greater TRN

  8. Impact of windstorm from November 2004 on mezo- and microclimatic conditions in the High Tatras region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pecho, J.; Faško, P.; Matejka, F.; Hurtalová, T.; Polčák, N.; Mikulová, K.

    2009-04-01

    On Friday, November 19th 2004, violent windstorm of wasting force hit the Hight Tatras forest scrubs. Landscape pattern of the 50 km long and 2,5 km wide area have been completely changed by the rare meteorological phenomena (total area of devastated forest scrub is about 12 000 hectares). Forest scrub pattern has been dramatically changed whereby the connected and coherent spruce scrubs at the age between 40 and 110 years have been replaced by the low, mainly meadow vegetation. It is highly probable the radical surface change might result in modification of mezzo- and microclimatic conditions of the affected region. Apart from this fact an impact of expected mezzo- and microclimatic condition changes on regional climate could modify the atmospheric component of the High Tatras environment. Investigation and quantification of feasible forest scrub changes impact on mezo- and microclimatic conditions in the stricken region of the High Tatras has constituted one of the most crucial task point of recently finished APVV project called "Microclimatic effect of forest scrub in the High Tatras". On the ground of statistical analysis of meteorological measurements and observations obtained from meteorological stations network of SHMI the statistical trends and long-term variability as well as significant changes of selected meteorological components, such as air temperature, air humidity and precipitation, have been evaluated during the first phase of the project. The results of the statistical investigation have represented an essential input data for verification of mathematical model designed to simulate the effect of forest scrubs on mezzo- and microclimatic conditions of the areas stricken by the windstorm. For the purpose of identification and quantification of significant scrub-change induced mezoclimatic signal we are dealing with statistical analysis of selected meteorological component time series (air temperature, air humidity, precipitation, wind speed

  9. Pulling Marbles from a Bag: Deducing the Regional Impact History of the SPA Basin from Impact Melt Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, Barbara A.; Coker, R. F.

    2009-01-01

    The South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin is an important target for absolute age-dating. Vertical and lateral impact mixing ensures that regolith within SPA will contain rock fragments from SPA itself, local impact craters, and faraway giant basins. About 20% of the regolith at any given site is foreign [1, 2], but much of this material will be cold ejecta, not impact melt. We calculated the fraction of contributed impact melt using scaling laws to estimate the amount and provenance of impact melt, demonstrating that SPA melt is the dominant impact melt rock (>70%) likely to be present. We also constructed a statistical model to illustrate how many randomly-selected impact-melt fragments would need to be dated, and with what accuracy, to confidently reproduce the impact history of a site. A detailed impact history becomes recognizable after a few hundred to a thousand randomly-selected marbles, however, it will be useful to have more information (e.g. compositional, mineralogical, remote sensing) to group fragments. These exercises show that SPA melt has a high probability of being present in a scoop sample and that dating of a few hundred to a thousand impact-melt fragments will yield the impact history of the SPA basin.

  10. Hypervariable antigenic region 1 of classical swine fever virus E2 protein impacts antibody neutralization.

    PubMed

    Liao, Xun; Wang, Zuohuan; Cao, Tong; Tong, Chao; Geng, Shichao; Gu, Yuanxing; Zhou, Yingshan; Li, Xiaoliang; Fang, Weihuan

    2016-07-19

    Envelope glycoprotein E2 of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is the major antigen that induces neutralizing antibodies and confers protection against CSFV infection. There are three hypervariable antigenic regions (HAR1, HAR2 and HAR3) of E2 that are different between the group 1 vaccine C-strain and group 2 clinical isolates. This study was aimed to characterize the antigenic epitope region recognized by monoclonal antibody 4F4 (mAb-4F4) that is present in the group 2 field isolate HZ1-08, but not in the C-strain, and examine its impact on neutralization titers when antisera from different recombinant viruses were cross-examined. Indirect ELISA with C-strain E2-based chimeric proteins carrying the three HAR regions showed that the mAb-4F4 bound to HAR1 from HZ1-08 E2, but not to HAR2 or HAR3, indicating that the specific epitope is located in the HAR1 region. Of the 6 major residues differences between C-strain and field isolates, Glu713 in the HAR1 region of strain HZ1-08 is critical for mAb-4F4 binding either at the recombinant protein level or using intact recombinant viruses carrying single mutations. C-strain-based recombinant viruses carrying the most antigenic part of E2 or HAR1 from strain HZ1-08 remained non-pathogenic to pigs and induced good antibody responses. By cross-neutralization assay, we observed that the anti-C-strain serum lost most of its neutralization capacity to RecC-HZ-E2 and QZ-14 (subgroup 2.1d field isolate in 2014), and vice versa. More importantly, the RecC-HAR1 virus remained competent in neutralizing ReC-HZ-E2 and QZ-14 strains without compromising the neutralization capability to the recombinant C-strain. Thus, we propose that chimeric C-strain carrying the HAR1 region of field isolates is a good vaccine candidate for classical swine fever. PMID:27317266

  11. Jael syndrome: removal of a knife blade impacted in the maxillofacial region under local anaesthesia

    PubMed Central

    Dominguete, Paulo Roberto; Matos, Bruno Figueiredo; Meyer, Tufi Neder; Oliveira, Lucinei Roberto

    2013-01-01

    The presence of retained foreign bodies in the maxillofacial region as a consequence of penetrating injuries from knives is poorly documented in the scientific literature. This manuscript reports the case of a 30-year-old Caucasian with a knife blade lodged in the maxillofacial skeleton. Following clinical and radiographic exams, it was determined that the object had penetrated through the left nostril and nasal septum, in the direction of the right maxillary sinus, and remained impacted without causing injury to important anatomical structures. After systemic assessment and determination of the exact location of the knife blade, the object was removed in an outpatient setting under local anaesthesia. This manuscript aims to report a rare case of a transfacial penetrating injury involving a knife blade that was removed in an outpatient setting while also discussing the proper conduct and treatment options for similar cases in the context of a brief literature review. PMID:23580680

  12. Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Regional Power Generation

    SciTech Connect

    Hadley, Stanton W; Tsvetkova, Alexandra A

    2008-01-01

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are being developed around the world, with much work aiming to optimize engine and battery for efficient operation, both during discharge and when grid electricity is available for recharging. However, the general expectation has been that the grid will not be greatly affected by the use of PHEVs because the recharging will occur during off-peak hours, or the number of vehicles will grow slowly enough so that capacity planning will respond adequately. This expectation does not consider that drivers will control the timing of recharging, and their inclination will be to plug in when convenient, rather than when utilities would prefer. It is important to understand the ramifications of adding load from PHEVs onto the grid. Depending on when and where the vehicles are plugged in, they could cause local or regional constraints on the grid. They could require the addition of new electric capacity and increase the utilization of existing capacity. Usage patterns of local distribution grids will change, and some lines or substations may become overloaded sooner than expected. Furthermore, the type of generation used to meet the demand for recharging PHEVs will depend on the region of the country and the timing of recharging. This paper analyzes the potential impacts of PHEVs on electricity demand, supply, generation structure, prices, and associated emission levels in 2020 and 2030 in 13 regions specified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Information Administration (EIA), and on which the data and analysis in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2007 are based (Figure ES-1). The estimates of power plant supplies and regional hourly electricity demand come from publicly available sources from EIA and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Electricity requirements for PHEVs are based on analysis from the Electric Power Research Institute, with an optimistic

  13. Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Kumar, K. Krishna

    2012-02-01

    A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2 and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961-1990). The change is evaluated towards the end of present century (2071-2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.

  14. Biogeophysical impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate changes in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Y.; Markkanen, T.; Backman, L.; Henttonen, H. M.; Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Mäkelä, H. M.; Laaksonen, A.

    2014-12-01

    Land cover changes can impact the climate by influencing the surface energy and water balance. Naturally treeless or sparsely treed peatlands were extensively drained to stimulate forest growth in Finland over the second half of 20th century. The aim of this study is to investigate the biogeophysical effects of peatland forestation on regional climate in Finland. Two sets of 18-year climate simulations were done with the regional climate model REMO by using land cover data based on pre-drainage (1920s) and post-drainage (2000s) Finnish national forest inventories. In the most intensive peatland forestation area, located in the middle west of Finland, the results show a warming in April of up to 0.43 K in monthly-averaged daily mean 2 m air temperature, whereas a slight cooling from May to October of less than 0.1 K in general is found. Consequently, snow clearance days over that area are advanced up to 5 days in the mean of 15 years. No clear signal is found for precipitation. Through analysing the simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth over five selected subregions, a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation is found between decreased surface albedo and increased surface air temperature in the snow-melting period. Our modelled results show good qualitative agreements with the observational data. In general, decreased surface albedo in the snow-melting period and increased evapotranspiration in the growing period are the most important biogeophysical aspects induced by peatland forestation that cause changes in climate. The results from this study can be further integrally analysed with biogeochemical effects of peatland forestation to provide background information for adapting future forest management to mitigate climate warming effects. Moreover, they provide insights about the impacts of projected forestation of tundra at high latitudes due to climate change.

  15. Impact of various observing systems on weather analysis and forecast over the Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Randhir; Ojha, Satya P.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.

    2014-09-01

    To investigate the potential impact of various types of data on weather forecast over the Indian region, a set of data-denial experiments spanning the entire month of July 2012 is executed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. The experiments are designed to allow the assessment of mass versus wind observations and terrestrial versus space-based instruments, to evaluate the relative importance of the classes of conventional instrument such as radiosonde, and finally to investigate the role of individual spaceborne instruments. The moist total energy norm is used for validation and forecast skill assessment. The results show that the contribution of wind observations toward error reduction is larger than mass observations in the short range (48 h) forecast. Terrestrial-based observations generally contribute more than space-based observations except for the moisture fields, where the role of the space-based instruments becomes more prevalent. Only about 50% of individual instruments are found to be beneficial in this experiment configuration, with the most important role played by radiosondes. Thereafter, Meteosat Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) (only for short range forecast) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are second and third, followed by surface observations, Sounder for Probing Vertical Profiles of Humidity (SAPHIR) radiances and pilot observations. Results of the additional experiments of comparative performance of SSM/I total precipitable water (TPW), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and SAPHIR radiances indicate that SSM/I is the most important instrument followed by SAPHIR and MHS for improving the quality of the forecast over the Indian region. Further, the impact of single SAPHIR instrument (onboard Megha-Tropiques) is significantly larger compared to three MHS instruments (onboard NOAA-18/19 and MetOp-A).

  16. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  17. Global and Regional Impacts of HONO on the Chemical Composition of Clouds and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO/NO(sub x) ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HO(sub x) (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation.

  18. Global and Regional Impacts of HONO on the Chemical Composition of Clouds and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO / NOx ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HOx (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation

  19. Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Sales, F.; Xue, Y.; Okin, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    This study presents an investigation of the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in the northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS approximate date of burning product were implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF/NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was temporarily imposed through lower ground albedo for a period of 10 days after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground degradation increased surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground of the region, which in turn caused a decrease in surface net radiation and evapotranspiration in northern sub-saharan Africa. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was simulated in the burned area experiments, which plays a dominant role in reducing precipitation over the area, especially in the months preceding the West African monsoon onset. The areas with largest impacts were those covered by forests and savanna, where annual precipitation decreased by 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively. This study suggests the cooling and drying of atmosphere induced by burned areas led to strengthening of subsidence during pre-onset and weakening of upward motion during onset and mature stages of the monsoon leading to a waning of convective instability and precipitation. Monthly vertical wind over the area showed a strengthening of downward motion in winter and spring seasons, and weakening of upward movement during the rainy months. Furthermore, precipitation energy analysis revealed that most of precipitation decrease originated from convective events, especially for those with daily precipitation rates above 2.0 mm day-1, which substantiates the hypothesis of convective

  20. Global and regional impacts of HONO on the chemical composition of clouds and aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elshorbany, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-02-01

    Recently, realistic simulation of nitrous acid (HONO) based on the HONO / NOx ratio of 0.02 was found to have a significant impact on the global budgets of HOx (OH + HO2) and gas phase oxidation products in polluted regions, especially in winter when other photolytic sources are of minor importance. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that simulating realistic HONO levels can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)) due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model-measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and corroborate the central role of cloud chemical processing in S(IV) formation.

  1. Ganymede - Mixture of Terrains and Large Impact Crater in Uruk Sulcus Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    A mixture of terrains studded with a large impact crater is shown in this view of the Uruk Sulcus region of Jupiter's moon Ganymede taken by NASA's Galileo spacecraft during its first flyby of the planet-sized moon on June 27, 1996. The image shows fine details of bright areas that make up about half of the surface of Ganymede. Pock-marked, ancient, heavily cratered terrain is seen at the top; it is cut by younger, line-like structures in the lower left of the image. The bright, circular feature in the lower middle is an impact crater with some dark ejecta superimposed on the linear ridges. These types of relationships revealed by Galileo allow scientists to work out the complex geologic history of Ganymede. In this view, north is to the top and the sun illuminates the surface from the lower left nearly overhead. The area shown, at latitude 10 degrees north, longitude 168 degrees west, is about 59 by 40 kilometers (36 by 25 miles), and the resolution is 74 meters (80 yards) per picture element. The image was taken on June 27 at a range of 7,448 kilometers (4.628 miles). The Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the Galileo mission for NASA's Office of Space Science.

  2. Impacts of flare emissions from an ethylene plant shutdown to regional air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ziyuan; Wang, Sujing; Xu, Qiang; Ho, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    Critical operations of chemical process industry (CPI) plants such as ethylene plant shutdowns could emit a huge amount of VOCs and NOx, which may result in localized and transient ozone pollution events. In this paper, a general methodology for studying dynamic ozone impacts associated with flare emissions from ethylene plant shutdowns has been developed. This multi-scale simulation study integrates process knowledge of plant shutdown emissions in terms of flow rate and speciation together with regional air-quality modeling to quantitatively investigate the sensitivity of ground-level ozone change due to an ethylene plant shutdown. The study shows the maximum hourly ozone increments can vary significantly by different plant locations and temporal factors including background ozone data and solar radiation intensity. It helps provide a cost-effective air-quality control strategy for industries by choosing the optimal starting time of plant shutdown operations in terms of minimizing the induced ozone impact (reduced from 34.1 ppb to 1.2 ppb in the performed case studies). This study provides valuable technical supports for both CPI and environmental policy makers on cost-effective air-quality controls in the future.

  3. An Optimal Hierarchical Decision Model for a Regional Logistics Network with Environmental Impact Consideration

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level. PMID:24977209

  4. Assessing the regional impacts of increased energy maize cultivation on farmland birds.

    PubMed

    Brandt, Karoline; Glemnitz, Michael

    2014-02-01

    The increasing cultivation of energy crops in Germany substantially affects the habitat function of agricultural landscapes. Precise ex ante evaluations regarding the impacts of this cultivation on farmland bird populations are rare. The objective of this paper was to implement a methodology to assess the regional impacts of increasing energy maize cultivation on the habitat quality of agricultural lands for farmland birds. We selected five farmland bird indicator species with varying habitat demands. Using a crop suitability modelling approach, we analysed the availability of potential habitat areas according to different land use scenarios for a real landscape in Northeast Germany. The model was based on crop architecture, cultivation period, and landscape preconditions. Our results showed that the habitat suitability of different crops varied between bird species, and scenario calculations revealed an increase and a decrease in the size of the potential breeding and feeding habitats, respectively. The effects observed in scenario 1 (increased energy maize by 15%) were not reproduced in all cases in scenario 2 (increased energy maize by 30%). Spatial aggregation of energy maize resulted in a negative effect for some species. Changes in the composition of the farmland bird communities, the negative effects on farmland bird species limited in distribution and spread and the relevance of the type of agricultural land use being replaced by energy crops are also discussed. In conclusion, we suggest a trade-off between biodiversity and energy targets by identifying biodiversity-friendly energy cropping systems. PMID:24323319

  5. Indoor Air Pollutant Exposure for Life Cycle Assessment: Regional Health Impact Factors for Households.

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K; Meijer, Arjen; Demou, Evangelia; Hellweg, Stefanie; Jolliet, Olivier; Lam, Nicholas L; Margni, Manuele; McKone, Thomas E

    2015-11-01

    Human exposure to indoor pollutant concentrations is receiving increasing interest in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). We address this issue by incorporating an indoor compartment into the USEtox model, as well as by providing recommended parameter values for households in four different regions of the world differing geographically, economically, and socially. With these parameter values, intake fractions and comparative toxicity potentials for indoor emissions of dwellings for different air tightness levels were calculated. The resulting intake fractions for indoor exposure vary by 2 orders of magnitude, due to the variability of ventilation rate, building occupation, and volume. To compare health impacts as a result of indoor exposure with those from outdoor exposure, the indoor exposure characterization factors determined with the modified USEtox model were applied in a case study on cooking in non-OECD countries. This study demonstrates the appropriateness and significance of integrating indoor environments into LCA, which ensures a more holistic account of all exposure environments and allows for a better accountability of health impacts. The model, intake fractions, and characterization factors are made available for use in standard LCA studies via www.usetox.org and in standard LCA software. PMID:26444519

  6. Adapting to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vimont, D.; Liebl, D.

    2012-12-01

    The mission of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI; http://www.wicci.wisc.edu) is to assess the impacts of climate change on Wisconsin's natural, human, and built environments; and to assist in developing, recommending, and implementing climate adaptation strategies in Wisconsin. WICCI originated in 2007 as a partnership between the University of Wisconsin Nelson Institute and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and has since grown to include numerous other state, public, and private institutions. In 2011, WICCI released its First Assessment Report, which documents the efforts of over 200 individuals around the state in assessing vulnerability and estimating the risk that regional climate change poses to Wisconsin. The success of WICCI as an organization can be traced to its existence as a partnership between academic and state institutions, and as a boundary organization that catalyzes cross-disciplinary efforts between science and policy. WICCI's organizational structure and its past success at assessing climate impacts in Wisconsin will be briefly discussed. As WICCI moves into its second phase, it is increasing its emphasis on the second part of its mission: development, and implementation of adaptation strategies. Towards these goals WICCI has expanded its organizational structure to include a Communications and Outreach Committee that further ensures a necessary two-way communication of information between stakeholders / decision makers, and scientific efforts. WICCI is also increasing its focus on place-based efforts that include climate change information as one part of an integrated effort at sustainable development. The talk will include a discussion of current outreach and education efforts, as well as future directions for WICCI efforts.

  7. An oil spill accident and its impact on ozone levels in the surrounding coastal regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Sang-Keun; Shon, Zang-Ho; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Kang, Yoon-Hee; Kim, Ki-Hyun

    2011-02-01

    An oil spill on the west coast of the Republic of Korea was investigated with regard to its impact on ozone (O 3) concentration levels in the surrounding regions. The accident occurred on December 7, 2007 with the total estimate of 12,500 tons of Iranian Heavy plus Kuwait Export crude oils. The evaporation rates of the volatile hydrocarbon fractions in these crude oils were estimated based on the molar fractions of crude oils and their mass transfer coefficients. Their emission rates parameterized with several key environmental parameters (e.g., wind speed, seawater temperature, and salinity) along with oil type information were then applied in the 3-D chemical transport model. Photochemical production of O 3 in winter just after the accident was relatively insignificant due to very low photochemical activity. For the case/sensitivity study, the photochemical production of O 3 simulated under the hot summer weather conditions was predicted to be significant at the same magnitude of the oil spill. This study confirms that an oil spill, if occurring around coastal regions, can alter O 3 levels to a large extent depending on the meteorological conditions.

  8. Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Belnap, Jayne; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Swann, Don E.; Rutman, Sue

    2012-01-01

    Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

  9. Global and regional impacts of HONO on the chemical composition of clouds and aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elshorban, Y. F.; Crutzen, P. J.; Steil, B.; Pozzer, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

    2013-09-01

    Nitrous acid (HONO) photolysis can significantly increase HOx (OH+HO2) radical formation, enhancing organic and inorganic oxidation products in polluted regions, especially during winter. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that HONO can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)), mainly due to the increased formation of H2SO4. Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H2O2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO3 formation and N2O5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model-measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and the central role of cloud chemical processing in aerosol formation.

  10. Impacted foreign bodies in the maxillofacial region-diagnosis and treatment.

    PubMed

    Santos, Thiago de Santana; Melo, Auremir Rocha; de Moraes, Hécio Henrique Araújo; Avelar, Rafael Linard; Becker, Otávio Emmel; Haas, Orion Luiz; de Oliveira, Rogério Belle

    2011-07-01

    Foreign bodies are often encountered by oral and maxillofacial surgeons and may present a diagnostic challenge to the trauma surgeon due to many factors such as the size of the object, the difficult access, and a close anatomic relationship of the foreign body to vital structures. They are usually a result of injuries or operations. Fragments of broken instruments can be left behind and entire teeth or their fragments can be displaced during extraction. The approach to this kind of injury should be sequential and multidisciplinary, beginning with the trauma unit that will provide maintenance of the airways, hemodynamic stabilization, and, but only if necessary, neurologic, ophthalmologic, and vascular evaluation. With a view to illustrating and discussing the diagnosis and treatment of this kind of injury, this study reports impacted foreign bodies in oral and maxillofacial region. The following data were collected: age, sex, race, etiology, occurrence of fracture, anatomic location of the fracture, daytime of the traumatic event, type of the object, signal and symptoms, type of imaging examination used, type of anesthesia, approach, transoperative complication, period between surgery and hospital liberation, and the occurrence of death. Foreign body injuries in the maxillofacial region can place the patient's life at risk, so a correct initial treatment performed by a multidisciplinary team increases the survival of this kind of patient. PMID:21772164

  11. Impact of an extreme dry and hot summer on water supply security in an alpine region.

    PubMed

    Vanham, D; Fleischhacker, E; Rauch, W

    2009-01-01

    Climate change will induce an increasing drought risk in western and southern Europe and a resulting increase in water stress. This paper investigates the impact of both the extreme hot and dry summer of 2003 and the PRUDENCE CHRM climate change scenario summer for 2071-2100 on the monthly water balance (available water resources versus water demand) within the Kitzbueheler Region in the Austrian Alps. As a baseline period the climate normal period from 1961 to 1990 was chosen. In both summer scenarios total flow and ground water recharge decrease substantially, due to the decrease in precipitation and increase in evapotranspiration However, regional water availability is still sufficient to serve all water demand stakeholders. As a result of decreased snow cover duration, flow seasonality changes within the CHRM scenario. Especially springs are very vulnerable to these climatological conditions; average local groundwater recharge is reduced by 20% up to 70% within both scenarios. Due to the hydrogeological characteristics of the case study area and the typical small structured alpine water supply infrastructure, local deficits can occur. But also groundwater aquifers in the valleys show a decrease in water availability. These results are supported by observations made in 2003 throughout Austria and Switzerland. PMID:19214001

  12. The negative impacts of human activities in the eastern African region: an international waters perspective.

    PubMed

    Payet, Rolph; Obura, David

    2004-02-01

    The complex interactions between human activities and the environment at the interface of land and water is analyzed with a focus on the Somali Current (East Africa), and Indian Ocean Island States, subregions of the Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA). These 2 subregions contain some of the world's richest ecosystems, including the high biodiversity forests of Madagascar and the diverse coastal habitats of the eastern African coast. These ecosystems support local communities and national and regional economies. Current and future degradation of these systems, from water basins to continental shelves, affects the livelihoods and sustainability of the countries in the region, and long-term efforts to reduce poverty. The assessments determined that pollution and climate change are the primary environmental and social concerns in the Islands of the Indian Ocean, while freshwater shortage and unsustainable exploitation of fisheries and other living resources are the primary environmental and social concerns in East Africa. The GIWA approach, through assessing root causes of environmental concerns, enables the development of policy approaches for mitigating environmental degradation. This paper explores policy frameworks for mitigating the impacts, and reducing the drivers, of 3 environmental concerns--freshwater shortage; solid waste pollution; and climate change--addressing social and institutional causes and effects, and linking the subregions to broad international frameworks. The common theme in all 3 case studies is the need to develop integrated ecosystem and international waters policies, and mechanisms to manage conflicting interests and to limit threats to natural processes. PMID:15083647

  13. Supporting work practices through telehealth: impact on nurses in peripheral regions

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background In Canada, workforce shortages in the health care sector constrain the ability of the health care system to meet the needs of its population and of its health care professionals. This issue is of particular importance in peripheral regions of Quebec, where significant inequalities in workforce distribution between regions has lead to acute nursing shortages and increased workloads. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are innovative solutions that can be used to develop strategies to optimise the use of available resources and to design new nursing work practices. However, current knowledge is still limited about the real impact of ICTs on nursing recruitment and retention. Our aim is to better understand how work practice reorganization, supported by ICTs, and particularly by telehealth, may influence professional, educational, and organizational factors relating to Quebec nurses, notably those working in peripheral regions. Methods/Design First, we will conduct a descriptive study on the issue of nursing recruitment. Stratified sampling will be used to select approximately twenty innovative projects relating to the reorganization of work practices based upon ICTs. Semi-structured interviews with key informants will determine professional, educational, and organizational recruitment factors. The results will be used to create a questionnaire which, using a convenience sampling method, will be mailed to 600 third year students and recent graduates of two Quebec university nursing faculties. Descriptive, correlation, and hierarchical regression analyses will be performed to identify factors influencing nursing graduates' intentions to practice in peripheral regions. Secondly, we will conduct five case studies pertaining to the issue of nursing retention. Five ICT projects in semi-urban, rural, and isolated regions have been identified. Qualitative data will be collected through field observation and approximately fifty semi

  14. Coastal erosion impacts under climate change scenarios at the regional scale in the North Adriatic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Critto, A.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Marcomini, A.

    2012-04-01

    Global climate change is likely to pose additional pressures on coastal ecosystems by accelerating sea level rise, storms, flooding and erosion. Specifically, coastal erosion is an issue of major concern for estuarine and deltaic coastal areas and ecosystems and it is expected to increase in size and magnitude due to climate change forcing. Accordingly, the use of climate change scenarios in the assessment of coastal erosion risks could improve the development of sustainable adaptation strategies. In order to analyze the potential consequences of climate change on coastal erosion processes and evaluate the related impacts on coastal receptors (i.e. beaches, river mouths, wetlands and protected areas), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to the North Adriatic coast (Italy). Climate induced hazards were analyzed by means of regional hydrodynamic models that provide information about the main coastal erosion stressors (i.e. increases in mean sea-level, changes in wave height and variations in the extent of sediments deposition at the sea bottom) under climate change scenarios (i.e. regional climate projections). Site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, geomorphology, sediment budget, protection level, population density and wetland extension) and hazard metrics were aggregated in the RRA methodology in order to develop exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps that identify and prioritize hot-spot areas and vulnerable targets at the regional scale. Future seasonal exposure maps of coastal erosion at the regional scale depict a worse situation in winter and autumn for the future period 2070-2100 and highlight hot-spot exposure areas surrounding the Po River Delta. Moreover, risk maps highlighted that the receptors (i.e. exposure units) at higher risk to coastal erosion are beaches, wetlands and river mouths with relevant percentages of the territory characterized by higher risk scores

  15. Regional Impacts of Climate Change on the Amazon Rainforest: 2080-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

    2006-12-01

    A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km is coupled with a potential vegetation model to simulate future climate over South America. The following steps are taken to effectively communicate the results across disciplines and to make them useful to the policy and impacts communities: the simulation is aimed at a particular time period (2081-2100), the climate change results are translated into changes in vegetation distribution, and the results are reported on regional space scales relative to political boundaries. In addition, the model validation in clearly presented to provide perspective on uncertainty for the prognosis. The model reproduces today's climate and vegetation over tropical and subtropical South America accurately. In simulations of the future, the model is forced by the IPCC's A2 scenario of future emissions, which assumes that CO2 emissions continue to grow at essentially today's rate throughout the 21st century, reaching 757 ppmv averaged over 2081-2100. The model is constrained on its lateral boundaries by atmospheric conditions simulated by a global climate model, applied as anomalies to present day conditions, and predicted changes in sea surface temperatures. The extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent in the simulation, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward well into the continental interior. Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina lose all of their rainforest vegetation, and Brazil and Peru lose most of it. The surviving rain forest is concentrated near the equator. Columbia's rainforest survives largely intact and, along the northern coast, Venezuela and French Guiana suffer relatively small reductions. The loss in Guyana and Surinam is 30-50 per cent. Much of the rainforest in the central Amazon north of about 15S is replaced by savanna vegetation, but in southern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and southern Brazil, grasslands take the place of the

  16. Carbon Cycling in Lake Superior: Impact on Upper Midwest Regional Carbon Balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desai, A. R.; McKinley, G. A.; Urban, N. R.; Wu, C. H.

    2007-12-01

    Understanding the regional surface-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide of inland water bodies is important for accurately quantifying and scaling regional continental carbon budgets. It is widely recognized that many lakes are net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. However, our ability to predict CO2 fluxes from any particular lake remain rather limited. In a landscape rich in lakes and wetlands such as the upper Midwest Great Lakes region, assumptions that CO2 fluxes from lakes are negligible seem disingenuous and bear potential for adding error to estimates of regional carbon flux. The Laurentian Great Lakes cover 25 percent of the land area of the 8 Great Lakes states, and CO2 emission and seasonal cycling from them may be comparable to local terrestrial ecosystems. CO2 fluxes from Lake Superior are of particular interest because they may directly impact CO2 observations at nearby AmeriFlux towers. DOC inputs to lakes are considered a major controlling factor on lake CO2 concentrations. Recent findings estimated the turnover time of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Lake Superior to be about 8 years. We have collected lake water samples, analyzed above lake CO2 concentrations, and started coupling an ecosystem-carbon module to an existing high resolution hydrodynamic model of Lake Superior in an attempt to estimate these fluxes and their spatial and temporal variability. Here we present initial results from this effort and place these reseults in context with regional terrestrial CO2 fluxes. Municipal water intakes were analyzed for water properties. The measured values for alkalinity and pH in the Lake Superior samples were within the range previously reported for the lake. Additionally, CO2 concentrations measured above Lake Superior were shown to be elevated above what would be expected on land, with a gradient of increasing concentrations with increasing wind travel distance from shore. Both of these initial measurements suggest that Lake Superior can be a

  17. Impacts of regional climate variability and change on U.S. wildfire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.

    2008-05-01

    Atmospheric condition is one of the factors affecting wildfire. Anomalous weather events such as droughts are a major contributor to intense wildfires. Climate change due to the greenhouse effect is expected to lead to significant wildfire disturbances. This study investigates the impacts of regional climate variability and change on wildfires in the contiguous United States. A severe drought and intense wildfire case is first simulated with the NCAR regional climate model. For comparison, simulation is also conducted for a flood event. Wildfire danger indices are estimated using model outputs. The results indicate that soil water content is close to its wilting point during the drought period. The fire danger indices point out a high risk of wildfire. This agrees with the reported wildfire activity that shows much more intense wildfires during the drought than flood period. A statistical analysis is then made. Singular value decomposition is applied to historical wildfire and antecedent sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that warming in the North Pacific is a major feature in the SST spatial pattern related to intense wildfires in the northwestern U.S. The warming signals were observed in all the major wildfire events during the past two decades. The SST anomaly therefore can be used as a predictor for wildfires in this region. Finally, future disturbances in wildfires are predicted based on the projected climate change with climate models under various IPCC SRES scenarios. The burned areas by wildfire in the western U.S. are expected to increase dramatically by the end of this century.

  18. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovee, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  19. Impact of spectral nudging on regional climate simulation over CORDEX East Asia using WRF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jianping; Wang, Shuyu; Niu, Xiaorui; Hui, Pinhong; Zong, Peishu; Wang, Xueyuan

    2016-06-01

    In this study, the impact of the spectral nudging method on regional climate simulation over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment East Asia (CORDEX-EA) region is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, five continuous simulations covering 1989-2007 are conducted by the WRF model, in which four runs adopt the interior spectral nudging with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validation shows that WRF has the ability to simulate spatial distributions and temporal variations of the surface climate (air temperature and precipitation) over CORDEX-EA domain. Comparably the spectral nudging technique is effective in improving the model's skill in the following aspects: (1), the simulated biases and root mean square errors of annual mean temperature and precipitation are obviously reduced. The SN3-UVT (spectral nudging with wavenumber 3 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U, V and T) and SN6 (spectral nudging with wavenumber 6 in both zonal and meridional directions applied to U and V) experiments give the best simulations for temperature and precipitation respectively. The inter-annual and seasonal variances produced by the SN experiments are also closer to the ERA-Interim observation. (2), the application of spectral nudging in WRF is helpful for simulating the extreme temperature and precipitation, and the SN3-UVT simulation shows a clear advantage over the other simulations in depicting both the spatial distributions and inter-annual variances of temperature and precipitation extremes. With the spectral nudging, WRF is able to preserve the variability in the large scale climate information, and therefore adjust the temperature and precipitation variabilities toward the observation.

  20. Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Sales, Fernando; Xue, Yongkang; Okin, Gregory S.

    2015-02-01

    This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early

  1. Impact of oil spill from ship on air quality around coastal regions of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shon, Zang-Ho; Song, Sang-Keun

    2010-05-01

    Regional air quality around coastal regions, where regular maritime traffic emissions from cargo, other commercial, fishing and military vessels are significantly active, can be affected by their direct emission of primary air pollutants (NOx, SO2, particulate matter (PM), etc.). For instance, harbor traffic exerted an important impact on NO2, SO2, O3, and PM levels. In addition, regional air quality around coastal regions is also affected by oil spill caused by ship accident in the coast. On 7 Dec., 2007, a barge carrying a crane hit the oil tanker MT Hebei Sprit off the west coast of the Republic of Korea, Yellow Sea (approximately 10 km off the coast), at 0700 local time, causing the spill of total estimated 12,547 tons of Iranian heavy (IH) and Kuwait Export (KE) crude oils. Since then, oil began coming on shore late in the night on 7 Dec. More than 150 km of coastline had been identified as being impacted by 17 Dec. Much of the affected area is part of the Taean-gun National Park and the nearest coastal city to spilled area is Taean. On 8 Dec., the flow of oil from the tanker was stopped when the holes were patched. The accident is the worst oil spill in Korea and the spill area is about one-third of the size of the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The short- and long-term effects of oil spill on marine environment have been numerously studied, not on atmospheric environment. In this study, the air quality impact near spilled area by the evaporation of hydrocarbons from the oil spill is studied in detail. The evaporation rates of the volatile fractions of the crude oils released by oil spill were estimated based on their mole fractions of crude oils and mass transfer coefficients. Based on a molecular diffusion process, the flux of spilled oil component (Fivap, mol m-2 s-1) can be expressed as follows: Fivap = Kivap(Civap - C∞vap) (1) where Civap is concentration (mol m-3) of a component i of crude oil vapor in the air at the oil-air interface; C∞vap is the

  2. Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippa, Monica; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Dentener, Frank; Guizzardi, Diego; Sindelarova, Katerina; Muntean, Marilena; Van Dingenen, Rita; Granier, Claire

    2016-03-01

    The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon) air pollutants for the period 1970-2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4 decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129 % (or factor 2.3) higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions in Europe (EU27), demonstrating the large role that technology has

  3. Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, H.; Luo, Y.

    2015-11-01

    Understanding the heterogeneity of climate change and its impacts on annual and seasonal discharge and the difference between median flow and extreme flow in different climate regions is of utmost importance to successful water management. To quantify the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of climate change impacts on hydrological processes, this study simulated river discharge in the River Huangfuchuan in semi-arid northern China and in the River Xiangxi in humid southern China. The study assessed the uncertainty in projected discharge for three time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) using seven equally weighted GCMs (global climate models) for the SRES (Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario. Climate projections that were applied to semi-distributed hydrological models (Soil Water Assessment Tools, SWAT) in both catchments showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions, particularly for the River Huangfuchuan. Results based on seven GCMs' projections indicated changes from -1.1 to 8.6 °C and 0.3 to 7.0 °C in seasonal temperature and changes from -29 to 139 % and -32 to 85 % in seasonal precipitation in the rivers Huangfuchuan and Xiangxi, respectively. The largest increases in temperature and precipitation in both catchments were projected in the spring and winter seasons. The main projected hydrologic impact was a more pronounced increase in annual discharge in the River Huangfuchuan than in the River Xiangxi. Most of the GCMs projected increased discharge in all seasons, especially in spring, although the magnitude of these increases varied between GCMs. The peak flows were projected to appear earlier than usual in the River Huangfuchuan and later than usual in the River Xiangxi, while the GCMs were fairly consistent in projecting increased extreme flows in both catchments with varying magnitude compared to median flows. For the River Huangfuchuan in the 2080s, median flow changed from -2 to 304 %, compared to a -1 to 145 % change in high flow

  4. Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, H.; Luo, Y.

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the heterogeneity of climate change and its impacts on annual and seasonal discharge, and the difference between mean flow and extreme flow in different climate regions is of utmost importance to successful water management. To quantify the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of climate change impacts on hydrological processes, this study simulated river discharge in the River Huangfuchuan in semi-arid northern China and the River Xiangxi in humid southern China. We assessed the uncertainty in projected discharge for three time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) using seven equally weighted GCMs for the SRES A1B scenario. Climate projections that were applied to semi-distributed hydrological models Soil Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) in both catchments showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions, particularly for the River Huangfuchuan. Results based on seven GCMs' projections indicated -1.1 to 8.6 and 0.3 to 7.0 °C changes in seasonal temperature and -29 to 139 and -32 to 85 % changes in seasonal precipitation in River Huangfuchuan and River Xiangxi, respectively. The largest increases in temperature and precipitation in both catchments were projected in the spring and winter seasons. The main projected hydrologic impact was a more pronounced increase in annual discharge in the River Huangfuchuan than in the River Xiangxi. Most of the GCMs projected increased discharge in all seasons, especially in spring, although the magnitude of these increases varied between GCMs. Peak flows was projected to appear earlier than usual in River Huangfuchuan and later than usual in River Xiangxi. While the GCMs were fairly consistent in projecting increased extreme flows in both catchments, the increases were of varying magnitude compared to mean flows. For River Huangfuchuan in the 2080s, median flow changed from -2 to 304 %, compared to a -1 to 145 % change in high flow (Q05 exceedence threshold). For River Xiangxi, low flow (Q95 exceedence threshold) changed

  5. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  6. On the long term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air-quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huszar, P.; Belda, M.; Halenka, T.

    2015-11-01

    For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of urban emission from Central European cities on the present-day regional air-quality, the regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled with the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions. A series of simulations was carried out for the 2001-2010 period either with all urban emissions included (base case) or without considering urban emissions. Further, the sensitivity of ozone production to urban emissions was examined by performing reduction experiments with -20 % emission perturbation of NOx and/or NMVOC. The validation of the modeling system's air-quality related outputs using AirBase and EMEP surface measurements showed satisfactory reproduction of the monthly variation for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). In terms of hourly correlations, reasonable values are achieved for ozone (r around 0.5-0.8) and for NO2 (0.4-0.6), but SO2 is poorly or not correlated at all with measurements (r around 0.2-0.5). The modeled fine particulates (PM2.5) are usually underestimated, especially in winter, mainly due to underestimation of nitrates and carbonaceous aerosols. EC air-quality measures were chosen as metrics describing the cities emission impact on regional air pollution. Due to urban emissions, significant ozone titration occurs over cities while over rural areas remote from cities, ozone production is modeled, mainly in terms of number of exceedances and accumulated exceedances over the threshold of 40 ppbv. Urban NOx, SO2 and PM2.5 emissions also significantly contribute to concentrations in the cities themselves (up to 50-70 % for NOx and SO2, and up to 60 % for PM2.5), but the contribution is large over rural areas as well (10-20 %). Although air pollution over cities is largely determined by the local urban emissions, considerable (often a few tens of %) fraction of the concentration is attributable to other sources from rural areas and minor cities. Further

  7. On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huszar, P.; Belda, M.; Halenka, T.

    2016-02-01

    For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of urban emission from Central European cities on the present-day regional air quality, the regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled with the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions. A series of simulations was carried out for the 2001-2010 period either with all urban emissions included (base case) or without considering urban emissions. Further, the sensitivity of ozone production to urban emissions was examined by performing reduction experiments with -20 % emission perturbation of NOx and/or non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC). The modeling system's air quality related outputs were evaluated using AirBase, and EMEP surface measurements showed reasonable reproduction of the monthly variation for ozone (O3), but the annual cycle of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) is more biased. In terms of hourly correlations, values achieved for ozone and NO2 are 0.5-0.8 and 0.4-0.6, but SO2 is poorly or not correlated at all with measurements (r around 0.2-0.5). The modeled fine particulates (PM2.5) are usually underestimated, especially in winter, mainly due to underestimation of nitrates and carbonaceous aerosols. European air quality measures were chosen as metrics describing the cities emission impact on regional air pollution. Due to urban emissions, significant ozone titration occurs over cities while over rural areas remote from cities, ozone production is modeled, mainly in terms of number of exceedances and accumulated exceedances over the threshold of 40 ppbv. Urban NOx, SO2 and PM2.5 emissions also significantly contribute to concentrations in the cities themselves (up to 50-70 % for NOx and SO2, and up to 60 % for PM2.5), but the contribution is large over rural areas as well (10-20 %). Although air pollution over cities is largely determined by the local urban emissions, considerable (often a few tens of %) fraction of the concentration is attributable to

  8. Global change impact on water resources at the regional scale - a reflection on participatory modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthel, Roland; Büttner, Hannah; Nickel, Darla; Seidl, Roman

    2015-04-01

    discussion we therefore focus on the following three questions: • Can a stakeholder dialogue be successfully used to support the development of new, complex modelling systems, in particular at the regional scale? • What is the right timing for stakeholder interaction in the case of unclear problem definition - i.e. global (climate) change impact on regions where climate is not (yet) a threat to water or land use related demands and activities? • To what degree can scientists be motivated to carry out participatory research at all? We conclude that the PM process in GD was only partly successful because the project set overambitious goals, including the application of fundamentally new approaches to interdisciplinary science, the use of new modelling technologies, the focus upon and evaluation of potential and therefore characteristically uncertain future problems, including stakeholder demands, and the development of a ready-to-use, user-friendly tool. Furthermore, GD also showed that an externally and professionally moderated stakeholder dialogue is an absolute necessity to achieve successful participation of stakeholders in model development. The modelers themselves neither had the time, the skills and the ambitions to do this. Furthermore, there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities. Given the fact that the outcomes of PM are supposed to be relevant for societal decision making, this issue needs further attention.

  9. Regional & National Scale Assessment of the Impact of the US Livestock Footprint on Dryland Productive Capacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulawardhana, R. W.; Washington-Allen, R. A.; Mitchell, J. E.; Reeves, M. C.

    2009-12-01

    Recent reports from the Heinz Center and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) concluded that the amount and extent of desertification is unknown at national to global spatial scales. This is primarily due to lack of consistent monitoring and assessment systems at these spatial and temporal (> 15 year) scales necessary to separate the effects of anthropogenic practices from climate change. Thus, the purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the US livestock footprint (the forage required by herbivores), on Dryland productive capacity or above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) at regional (Texas) and national extents. Dryland extent is defined as the aridity index (AI): the ratio of mean annual potential evapotranspiration to mean annual precipitation between 0.05 and 0.65. The Dryland grazable area (39 million ha in Texas and 257 million ha for US) was determined by converting 1992 and 2001 land cover classes to one land use category: rangelands. Rangelands were intersected with Drylands at Texas and US extents. The US Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (USDA-NASS) county- and state-level livestock numbers were converted to forage required to derive the ecological footprint for goats at the county-level (259,325 tons) for Texas from 2000 to 2006 and for all grazing livestock (216 million tons) at the national-level for 2002. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP was converted to ANPP by subtracting the below-ground (roots) component. ANPP is synonymous with the forage available to herbivores (35 million tons on average from 2000 to 2006 for Texas and 149 million tons in 2002 for the US) and is generated for the same years and extents as the forage required. The percentage grazable area of Texas and the US impacted by livestock appropriation of NPP (LANPP = Forage available - Forage required) was 12% and 19 %, respectively.

  10. Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

  11. Differential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops and Agricultural Regions in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, A. N.

    2015-12-01

    As India's farmers and policymakers consider potential adaptation strategies to climate change, some questions loom large: - Which climate variables best explain the variability of crop yields? - How does the vulnerability of crop yields to climate vary regionally? - How are these risks likely to change in the future? While process-based crop modelling has started to answer many of these questions, we believe statistical approaches can complement these in improving our understanding of climate vulnerabilities and appropriate responses. We use yield data collected over three decades for more than ten food crops grown in India along with a variety of statistical approaches to answer the above questions. The ability of climate variables to explain yield variation varies greatly by crop and season, which is expected. Equally important, the ability of models to predict crop yields as well as their coefficients varies greatly by district even for districts which are relatively close to each other and similar in their agricultural practices. We believe these results encourage caution and nuance when making projections about climate impacts on crop yields in the future. Most studies about climate impacts on crop yields focus on a handful of major food crops. By extending our analysis to all the crops with long-term district level data in India as well as two growing seasons we gain a more comprehensive picture. Our results indicate that there is a great deal of variability even at relatively small scales, and that this must be taken into account if projections are to be made useful to policymakers.

  12. Tsunami Impact from a 1755-like event in the Aveiro Region, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Catarina R.; Omira, Rachid; Pinheiro, Luis M.; Baptista, Maria A.; Quaresma, Luis S.; Garrido, Carla

    2014-05-01

    In this study, we present 5m-resolution tsunami flooding maps for the Aveiro region, W. Central Portugal. Aveiro is known to have been impacted by the 1st November 1755 earthquake and tsunami. At that time this portion of the coast had almost no constructions nor population but eversince geomorphological changes took place, and there has been a very large population increase living in constructions extremely close to the shore. As such it is important to model and evaluate the potential impact that a similar event to the 1755 earthquake would have in this area at present. Tsunami flooding maps were computed using a digital elevation model produced from the present-day bathymetric and topographic data including bathymetric surveys, LiDAR and photogrammetric data. Tsunami scenarios were generated considering different solutions for the 1755 earthquake seismic source, in faults constrained by multibeam and multichannel seismic data. The modeling of the tsunami propagation was performed with a validated non-linear shallow water model. To compute inundation, we considered four levels of nested grids with resolutions ranging from 320m to 5m. The tsunami-associated flood is discussed in terms of flow depth, run-up height and maximum inundation area. The Ria de Aveiro is characterized by both flattened relief and significant tidal amplitude range, which can contribute to an important variation in flooding due to tsunami-tide interaction. Therefore, the effect of the tide variation on the extent of tsunami inundation is also discussed. Results are compared with the historical descriptions of the consequences in Aveiro. An event similar to the one from 1755 would cause tsunami run-up heights above one meter within the Ria de Aveiro. The Aveiro oceanic coast would also be strongly affected. The results obtained can be used to identify the potential tsunami inundation areas in Aveiro, which is important for the Portuguese tsunami emergency management system. Keywords

  13. Feeding impacts of ontogenetically migrating copepods on the spring phytoplankton bloom in the Oyashio region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobari, T.; Inoue, Y.; Nakamura, Y.; Okamura, H.; Ota, T.; Nishibe, Y.; Ichinomiya, M.

    2010-09-01

    We investigated the feeding habits and grazing rates of the ontogenetically migrating copepods in the Oyashio region to evaluate their grazing impacts on the food web during the spring phytoplankton bloom. The bloom was in progress from early to late April, although chlorophyll a concentrations fluctuated considerably with the frequent exchange of different water masses. Biomass of the copepod community reached a maximum in mid-April when late copepodites of Neocalanus cristatus, Neocalanus flemingeri and Eucalanus bungii contributed to the biomass increase. Gut pigment contents of the predominant copepods were much higher during the bloom compared with the levels in March (pre-bloom). The temporal fluctuations were not correlated with those of mean chlorophyll a concentrations in the 0-50 m layer. Feeding experiments indicated that major food items for the copepods were centric diatoms and flagellates. During the period of lower ambient chlorophyll, the copepods changed their heterotrophic prey from naked ciliates to tintinnids. Apparent clearance rates were positive for naked ciliates and negative for heterotrophic nanoplankton, Cryptophyceae and bacteria when chlorophyll was high, suggesting trophic cascade effects from copepod feeding even during the phytoplankton bloom. The carbon demands of the copepod community were estimated to be 156 mgC m -2 day -1 in early March to 797 mgC m -2 day -1 in mid-April. The grazing rates on phytoplankton reached 480 mgC m -2 day -1, equivalent to as much as 28% of primary production. Non-phytoplankton prey supported 40 to 71% of the copepod carbon requirement. These results suggest that the copepod community does not graze the phytoplankton bloom down, but it does have significant impacts on microbial food webs.

  14. Investigating the impact of spaceborne radar blind zone on surface snowfall statistics in polar regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maahn, Maximilian; Burgard, Clara; Crewell, Susanne; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Kneifel, Stefan; Lhermitte, Stef; Van Tricht, Kristof; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Currently, global statistics of snowfall are only available from the CloudSat satellite launched in 2006. However, measurements of CloudSat can be only obtained at an altitude of at least 1200 m above ground, because measurements below are contaminated by ground clutter. As a consequence, global estimates of snowfall at the surface have to be estimated from observations at 1200 m above ground. In the presented study, it is investigated how this blind zone impacts snowfall statistics obtained from CloudSat observations in polar regions. For this, 12-months datasets containing observations of a vertically pointing 24 GHz Micro Rain Radar (MRR) are analyzed for three sites: the Belgian Princess Elisabeth station in East-Antarctica, and for Ny-Ålesund as well as Longyearbyen in Svalbard, Norway. Statistical comparison of CloudSat and MRR observations shows that MRRs are suited to study snowfall when reflectivity exceeds -5 dBz. To study the vertical variability of snowfall, MRR radar reflectivity profiles are analyzed with respect to changes in frequency distribution, the number of observed snow events and total precipitation. Results show that the blind zone leads to reflectivity being underestimated by up to 1 dB, the number of events being altered by ±5% and the precipitation amount being underestimated by 9 to 11 percentage points. In order to account for future satellite missions which feature a smaller blind-zone, also the impact of a reduced blind zone of 600 m is analyzed. Even though reducing the blind zone to 600 m leads to better representation of mean reflectivity, it does not improve the bias in event numbers and total precipitation amount.

  15. Study of Regional Volcanic Impact on the Middle East and North Africa using high-resolution global and regional models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osipov, Sergey; Dogar, Mohammad; Stenchikov, Georgiy

    2016-04-01

    High-latitude winter warming after strong equatorial volcanic eruptions caused by circulation changes associated with the anomalously positive phase of Arctic Oscillation is a subject of active research during recent decade. But severe winter cooling in the Middle East observed after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 1991, although recognized, was not thoroughly investigated. These severe regional climate perturbations in the Middle East cannot be explained by solely radiative volcanic cooling, which suggests that a contribution of forced circulation changes could be important and significant. To better understand the mechanisms of the Middle East climate response and evaluate the contributions of dynamic and radiative effects we conducted a comparative study using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with the effectively "regional-model-resolution" of 25-km and the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model focusing on the eruption of Mount Pinatubo on June 15, 1991 followed by a pronounced positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. The WRF model has been configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The WRF code has been modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Both HiRAM and WRF capture the main features of the MENA climate response and show that in winter the dynamic effects in the Middle East prevail the direct radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols.

  16. A regional level multi-hazard impact assessment based on indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lung, T.; Lavalle, C.; Hiederer, R.; Bouwer, L. M.

    2012-04-01

    Over the coming decades, Europe is expected to be confronted with major impacts due to anthropogenic climate change, with an increase in the frequency of some extreme weather events. Across the different European regions, impacts and vulnerability will vary in intensity and effect, according to changes in exposure to specific climatic stimuli and changes in non-climatic factors (sensitivity and vulnerability). To better prioritise adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative pan-European regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple hydro-meteorological hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at NUTS-2 level that quantifies potential regional changes related to four weather-driven hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, drought proneness, and forest fire danger. This is done by comparing the current (baseline) situation with two scenarios, for the periods 2011-2040 and 2041-2070. For each hazard individually, the method integrates outcomes of a set of coherent high-resolution regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project, based on the SRES A1B emission scenario, with current and projected non-climatic parameters such as land use and socio-economic factors, in order to quantify shifts in potential regional climate change impacts. In addition, an index of regional adaptive capacity is developed and compared with the impact indicators to identify regions of potentially high vulnerability. The results project strongest increases for heat stress, in particular in central Europe, and for forest fire danger, which not only rises considerably in the southern European regions but also shows a northwards shift. For drought proneness and flood risk the sign and magnitude of change vary across regions. An overall assessment combining all four hazards shows a clear trend towards increasing impact from climate-related natural hazards for most parts of Europe in the coming decades. The most

  17. Possible impacts of a descent into a Grand Solar Minimum on extratropical regional surface climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maycock, A. C.; Ineson, S.; Gray, L. J.; Scaife, A. A.; Lockwood, M. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Sun's output varies on a number of characteristic timescales, the most well-known of which is the approximately 11-year solar cycle. It has been shown that the Sun also exhibits cycles with a period of ~200 years, so-called Grand Solar Cycles. Reconstructions indicate that levels of solar activity have been relatively high for the past ~70 years, and it has been suggested that the Sun might be expected to evolve towards a state of lower output; however, the timescale and extent of such a 'Grand Solar Minimum' event is highly uncertain. This study presents sensitivity experiments with a state-of-the-art climate model to investigate the impact of reaching very low levels of solar output, similar to those thought to have occurred during the Maunder Minimum, by the middle of the 21st century. We investigate the effect of uncertainties in spectral solar irradiance by using both the semi-empirical model of Lean et al., which gives a relatively modest change in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral region and is commonly used to represent solar variability in climate models, as well as the recent measurements from the SORCE satellite, which suggest a much larger change in the UV across the solar cycle for the period 2004-07. Under the assumption of there being a large change in the UV derived from a linear extrapolation of the SORCE data, it is shown that a period of very low solar activity would be associated with a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation index. This signature in the large-scale circulation is associated with changes in regional surface climate, including cooler temperatures across the UK and western Europe. In the experiment which assumes a smaller change in UV irradiance, the extratropical circulation responses in the stratosphere and troposphere are found to be of a consistent sign but smaller in magnitude. This highlights the importance of one possible mechanism for solar-climate interactions, namely the impact of tropical upper stratospheric heating on

  18. Regional variation in physician adoption of antipsychotics: Impact on US Medicare expenditures

    PubMed Central

    Donohue, Julie M.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Horvitz-Lennon, Marcela; Men, Aiju; Berndt, Ernst R.; Huskamp, Haiden A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Regional variation in US Medicare prescription drug spending is driven by higher prescribing of costly brand-name drugs in some regions. This variation likely arises from differences in the speed of diffusion of newly-approved medications. Second-generation antipsychotics were widely adopted for treatment of severe mental illness and for several off-label uses. Rapid diffusion of new psychiatric drugs likely increases drug spending but its relationship to non-drug spending is unclear. The impact of antipsychotic diffusion on drug and medical spending is of great interest to public payers like Medicare, which finance a majority of mental health spending in the U.S. Aims We examine the association between physician adoption of new antipsychotics and antipsychotic spending and non-drug medical spending among disabled and elderly Medicare enrollees. Methods We linked physician-level data on antipsychotic prescribing from an all-payer dataset (IMS Health's Xponent™) to patient-level data from Medicare. Our physician sample included 16,932 U.S. psychiatrists and primary care providers with ≥10 antipsychotic prescriptions per year from 1997-2011. We constructed a measure of physician adoption of 3 antipsychotics introduced during this period (quetiapine, ziprasidone and aripiprazole) by estimating a shared frailty model of the time to first prescription for each drug. We then assigned physicians to one of 306 U.S. hospital referral regions (HRRs) and measured the average propensity to adopt per region. Using 2010 data for a random sample of 1.6 million Medicare beneficiaries, we identified 138,680 antipsychotic users. A generalized linear model with gamma distribution and log link was used to estimate the effect of region-level adoption propensity on beneficiary-level antipsychotic spending and non-drug medical spending adjusting for patient demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health status, eligibility category, and whether the antipsychotic was

  19. Assimilation of SCIAMACHY total column CO observations: Global and regional analysis of data impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tangborn, Andrew; Stajner, Ivanka; Buchwitz, Michael; Khlystova, Iryna; Pawson, Steven; Burrows, John; Hudman, Rynda; Nedelec, Philippe

    2009-04-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) total column observations from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) on board Envisat-1 are assimilated into the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office constituent assimilation system for the period 1 April to 20 December 2004. The impact of the assimilation on CO distribution is evaluated using independent surface flask observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/ESRL global cooperative air sampling network and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) in situ CO profiles. Assimilation of SCIAMACHY data improves agreement of CO assimilation with both of these data sets on both global and regional scales compared to the free-running model. Regional comparisons with MOZAIC profiles made in western Europe, the northeastern United States, and the Arabian Peninsula show improvements at all three locations in the free troposphere and into the boundary layer over Arabia and the northeastern United States. Comparisons with NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory data improve at about two thirds of the surface observation sites. The systematic model errors related to the uncertainty of CO surface sources and the chemistry of CO losses are investigated through experiments with increased surface CO emissions over the Arabian Peninsula and/or globally reduced hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations. Both model changes decrease mean CO errors at all altitudes in comparison to MOZAIC data over Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In contrast, errors in the assimilated CO are reduced by the increased emissions for pressures ≥800 hPa and by the reduced OH for pressures ≤600 hPa. Our analysis suggests that CO emissions over Dubai in 2004 are more than double those in the 1998 emissions inventory.

  20. Impact of land use changes on surface feedbacks in sudanian region of West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohard, J. M.; Galle, S.; Mamadou, O.; Peugeot, C.; Seghieri, J.; Kounouhewa, B.; Awanou, N. C.

    2014-12-01

    In West Africa, surface atmosphere exchanges have been found to impact both regional and local features of the Monsoon. At local scale the spatial patterns of Evaporative Fraction can drive the trajectories of mesoscale convective systems. Under Sudanian climate a mean of ~80% of the precipitation return to atmosphere through evapotranspiration but this important amount and its dynamics may vary with the vegetation cover. In consequence, any land use or climate changes can lead to modifications on the surface feedbacks and thus on both the atmospheric and the continental water cycle. In West Africa, Sudanian regions are submitted to a ~3% demographical increase per year, which leads to regular deforestation to the benefit of cultivated areas. This study aims at quantifying the changes in evapotranspiration regime caused by such a land use change under Sudanian climate. Within the framework of The AMMA-CATCH observatory, energy and water vapor fluxes were investigated in west Africa since 2007. Herein, a pluri-annual (2007 - 2010) energy budget of a clear forest and a cultivated area located in northern Benin are analysed. Results show that evapotranspiration rates over the sudanian forest are higher than those of cultivated area, because of agricultural practice and water availability for trees. After harvest, the residual vegetation is burned to bring nutriment to soil and to clean the landscape around the villages. Thus, during the dry season, the cultivated areas are bare. At the same time, a significant evapotranspiration is measured over the forest area despite the lack of precipitations. The deep root system of such vegetation allow the trees to get access to water during the dry season. During the rainy season, a significant difference in evapotransiration rates are also observed. These differences lead to a large deficit of water vapor that returns to the atmosphere and will significantly change the continental water cycle when forests will be replaced by

  1. A regional and global analysis of carbon dioxide physiological forcing and its impact on climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Timothy; Doutriaux-Boucher, Marie; Boucher, Olivier; Forster, Piers M.

    2011-02-01

    An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has both a radiative (greenhouse) effect and a physiological effect on climate. The physiological effect forces climate as plant stomata do not open as wide under enhanced CO2 levels and this alters the surface energy balance by reducing the evapotranspiration flux to the atmosphere, a process referred to as `carbon dioxide physiological forcing'. Here the climate impact of the carbon dioxide physiological forcing is isolated using an ensemble of twelve 5-year experiments with the Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3LC fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model where atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are instantaneously quadrupled and thereafter held constant. Fast responses (within a few months) to carbon dioxide physiological forcing are analyzed at a global and regional scale. Results show a strong influence of the physiological forcing on the land surface energy budget, hydrological cycle and near surface climate. For example, global precipitation rate reduces by ~3% with significant decreases over most land-regions, mainly from reductions to convective rainfall. This fast hydrological response is still evident after 5 years of model integration. Decreased evapotranspiration over land also leads to land surface warming and a drying of near surface air, both of which lead to significant reductions in near surface relative humidity (~6%) and cloud fraction (~3%). Patterns of fast responses consistently show that results are largest in the Amazon and central African forest, and to a lesser extent in the boreal and temperate forest. Carbon dioxide physiological forcing could be a source of uncertainty in many model predicted quantities, such as climate sensitivity, transient climate response and the hydrological sensitivity. These results highlight the importance of including biological components of the Earth system in climate change studies.

  2. The impact of SLMTA in improving laboratory quality systems in the Caribbean Region

    PubMed Central

    Guevara, Giselle; Gordon, Floris; Irving, Yvette; Whyms, Ismae; Parris, Keith; Beckles, Songee; Maruta, Talkmore; Ndlovu, Nqobile; Albalak, Rachel; Alemnji, George

    2016-01-01

    Background Past efforts to improve laboratory quality systems and to achieve accreditation for better patient care in the Caribbean Region have been slow. Objective To describe the impact of the Strengthening of Laboratory Management Toward Accreditation (SLMTA) training programme and mentorship amongst five clinical laboratories in the Caribbean after 18 months. Method Five national reference laboratories from four countries participated in the SLMTA programme that incorporated classroom teaching and implementation of improvement projects. Mentors were assigned to the laboratories to guide trainees on their improvement projects and to assist in the development of Quality Management Systems (QMS). Audits were conducted at baseline, six months, exit (at 12 months) and post-SLMTA (at 18 months) using the Stepwise Laboratory Quality Improvement Process Towards Accreditation (SLIPTA) checklist to measure changes in implementation of the QMS during the period. At the end of each audit, a comprehensive implementation plan was developed in order to address gaps. Results Baseline audit scores ranged from 19% to 52%, corresponding to 0 stars on the SLIPTA five-star scale. After 18 months, one laboratory reached four stars, two reached three stars and two reached two stars. There was a corresponding decrease in nonconformities and development of over 100 management and technical standard operating procedures in each of the five laboratories. Conclusion The tremendous improvement in these five Caribbean laboratories shows that SLMTA coupled with mentorship is an effective, user-friendly, flexible and customisable approach to the implementation of laboratory QMS. It is recommended that other laboratories in the region consider using the SLMTA training programme as they engage in quality systems improvement and preparation for accreditation. PMID:27066396

  3. Cumulative drought and land-use impacts on perennial vegetation across a North American dryland region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Long, A. Lexine; Wallace, Cynthia; Webb, Robert H.

    2016-01-01

    Question The decline and loss of perennial vegetation in dryland ecosystems due to global change pressures can alter ecosystem properties and initiate land degradation processes. We tracked changes of perennial vegetation using remote sensing to address the question of how prolonged drought and land-use intensification have affected perennial vegetation cover across a desert region in the early 21st century? Location Mojave Desert, southeastern California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, USA. Methods We coupled the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (MODIS-EVI) with ground-based measurements of perennial vegetation cover taken in about 2000 and about 2010. Using the difference between these years, we determined perennial vegetation changes in the early 21st century and related these shifts to climate, soil and landscape properties, and patterns of land use. Results We found a good fit between MODIS-EVI and perennial vegetation cover (2000: R2 = 0.83 and 2010: R2 = 0.74). The southwestern, far southeastern and central Mojave Desert had large declines in perennial vegetation cover in the early 21st century, while the northeastern and southeastern portions of the desert had increases. These changes were explained by 10-yr precipitation anomalies, particularly in the cool season and during extreme dry or wet years. Areas heavily impacted by visitor use or wildfire lost perennial vegetation cover, and vegetation in protected areas increased to a greater degree than in unprotected areas. Conclusions We find that we can extrapolate previously documented declines of perennial plant cover to an entire desert, and demonstrate that prolonged water shortages coupled with land-use intensification create identifiable patterns of vegetation change in dryland regions.

  4. Regional economic impacts of current and proposed management alternatives for Don Edwards National Wildlife Refuge

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Richardson, Leslie; Huber, Chris; Koontz, Lynne

    2012-01-01

    The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must describe the desired future conditions of a Refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. The Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, located at the south end of California's San Francisco Bay and one of seven refuges in the San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge Complex, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed Refuge management strategies. For Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan planning, a regional economic analysis provides a means of estimating how current management (No Action Alternative) and proposed management activities (alternatives) affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of information: (1) it illustrates the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge's contribution to the local community, and (2) it can help in determining whether economic effects are or are not a real concern in choosing among management alternatives. This report first presents a description of the local community and economy near the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge. Next, the methods used to conduct a regional economic impact analysis are described. An analysis of the final Comprehensive Conservation Plan management strategies that could affect stakeholders, residents, and the local economy is then presented. The management activities of economic concern in this analysis are: * Spending in the local community by Refuge visitors; * Refuge personnel salary spending; and * Refuge purchases of goods and services within the local

  5. Evaluation of the Impact of AlRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradely; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Parallel experiments using AIRS L1B and L2 retrieved profiles were run for 29 case study days for early Winter 2011. Forecasts over and downstream regions of low, opaque cloudy regions yield improved T and Z anomaly correlations when non-thinned set of profiles is assimilated instead of radiances. Initial results indicate that GSI does a good job on the whole of determining cloud-free radiances there are some areas coincident with areas of larger profile impact that are misrepresented (compared to MODIS) that may result in reduced analysis impact.

  6. Unplanned roads impacts assessment in Phewa Lake watershed, Western region, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leibundgut, Geoffroy; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Devkota, Sanjaya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Adhikari, Anu; Khanal, Rajendra

    2015-04-01

    This work describes current research being conducted in the Phewa Lake watershed, near Pokhara in Nepal's Siwaliks/Middle hills, a moist sub-tropical zone with the highest amount of annual rainfall in Nepal (4,500 - 5,000 mm). The watershed lithology is mainly siltstone, sandstones and intensively weathered rocks, highly prone to erosion and shallow landslides (Agrawala et al., 2003). The main purpose of this study is to focus on the impact of unplanned earthen road construction in the Phewa Lake watershed as part of land use changes over 30 years in one of Nepal's most touristic regions. Over the past three decades, the road network has expanded exponentially and a majority of rural earthen roads are often funded by communities themselves, with some government subsidies. They are usually constructed using a local bulldozer contractor with no technical or geological expertise increasing erosion processes, slope instabilities risk and impacts to settlements, forests, water sources, agriculture lands, and infrastructure. Moreover, these human-induced phenomena are being compounded by increasingly intense monsoon rains, likely due to climate change (Petley, 2010). Research methods were interdisciplinary and based on a combination of remote sensing, field observations and discussions with community members. The study compared 30 year-old aerial photos with current high resolution satellite images to correlate changes in land use with erosion and slope instabilities. Secondly, most of the watershed's roads were surveyed in order to inventory and quantify slope instabilities and soil loss events. Using a failure-characteristics grid, their main features were measured (location, size, type and extension of damage areas, etc.) and a GIS data base was created. We then estimated economic impacts of these events in terms of agriculture lands losses and road maintenance, based on field observations and discussions with affected people. Field work investigations have shown that

  7. Biogenic voc emissions development and its impacts on regional o3 in PRD, china

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xuemei; Shuping, Situ; Guenther, Alex; Chen, Fei; Wu, Zhiyong

    2010-05-01

    terpenoids may control the air quality especially the ozone formation in those areas.WRF-Chem-MEGAN model will be used to investigate the impacts of BVOC on regional ozone concentration in PRD.

  8. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

  9. Isoprene emissions and impacts in an ecological transition region inferred from tall tower measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, L.; Millet, D. B.; Baasandorj, M.; Griffis, T. J.; Turner, P. A.; Helmig, D.; Curtis, A.; Jacques, H.

    2014-12-01

    We present a full year of continuous in-situ measurements of isoprene and its oxidation products methyl vinyl ketone and methacrolein (MVK+MACR) by PTR-MS from a 244 m tall tower in the US Upper Midwest (KCMP tall tower). The tower is located at an ecological transition between isoprene-emitting deciduous forest to the north and east, and predominantly non-isoprene-emitting agricultural landscapes to the west and south. Based on independent cartridge measurements and a source-tracer analysis, we estimate that anthropogenic interferences (or anthropogenic isoprene) contribute on average 20% of the observed PTR-MS m/z 69 signal during daytime in summer at the KCMP tall tower (and up to 80% at night). Interferences for MVK+MACR at m/z 71 are small (7%). After removing these interferences, the observed isoprene and MVK+MACR mixing ratios show pronounced seasonal cycles, reaching maxima of 2540 pptv (isoprene) and 2790 pptv (MVK+MACR) during summer. The KCMP tall tower is impacted both by nearby isoprene sources (with transport time within an isoprene lifetime) and more distant regional isoprene sources (with transport time exceeding an isoprene lifetime), as indicated by daytime enhancements of isoprene (but little MVK+MACR) under southwest winds, and enhancements of MVK+MACR (but little isoprene) under transport from other directions. We find that the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model driven with the MEGANv2.1 biogenic inventory can reproduce the observed isoprene mixing ratios to within model uncertainty once improved land cover and temperature estimates are implemented in the model. However, a model low bias in MVK+MACR of (25% - 66%) cannot be resolved, even across diverse model assumptions for chemistry, atmospheric mixing, and land cover. This suggests that, while isoprene emissions in the immediate vicinity of the KCMP tall tower are adequately captured, the model is still underestimating emissions across the broader region. Using the loss of HOx radicals

  10. Hydrologic variability in dryland regions: impacts on ecosystem dynamics and food security

    PubMed Central

    D'Odorico, Paolo; Bhattachan, Abinash

    2012-01-01

    Research on ecosystem and societal response to global environmental change typically considers the effects of shifts in mean climate conditions. There is, however, some evidence of ongoing changes also in the variance of hydrologic and climate fluctuations. A relatively high interannual variability is a distinctive feature of the hydrologic regime of dryland regions, particularly at the desert margins. Hydrologic variability has an important impact on ecosystem dynamics, food security and societal reliance on ecosystem services in water-limited environments. Here, we investigate some of the current patterns of hydrologic variability in drylands around the world and review the major effects of hydrologic fluctuations on ecosystem resilience, maintenance of biodiversity and food security. We show that random hydrologic fluctuations may enhance the resilience of dryland ecosystems by obliterating bistable deterministic behaviours and threshold-like responses to external drivers. Moreover, by increasing biodiversity and the associated ecosystem redundancy, hydrologic variability can indirectly enhance post-disturbance recovery, i.e. ecosystem resilience. PMID:23045712

  11. Shoreline impacts in the Gulf of Alaska region following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    SciTech Connect

    Gilfillan, E.S.; Page, D.S.; Suchanek, T.H.; Boehm, P.D.; Harner, E.J.; Sloan, N.A.

    1995-12-31

    Forty-eight sites in the Gulf of Alaska region (GOA-Kodiak Island, Kenai Peninsula, and Alaska Peninsula) were sampled in July/August 1989 to assess the impact of the March 24, 1989, Exxon Valdez oil spill on shoreline chemistry and biological communities hundreds of miles from the spill origin. In a 1990 companion study, 5 of the Kensai sites and 13 of the Kodiak and Alaska Peninsula sites were sampled 16 months after the spill. Oiling levels at each site were estimated visually and/or quantified by chemical analysis. The chemical analyses were performed on sediment and/or rock wipe samples collected with the biological samples. Additional sediment samples were collected for laboratory amphipod toxicity tests. Mussels were also collected and analyzed for hydrocarbon content to assess hydrocarbon bioavailability. Biological investigations at these GOA sites focused on intertidal infauna, epifauna, and macroalgae by means of a variety of common ecological techniques. For rock sites the percentage of hard substratum covered by biota was quantified. At each site, up to 5 biological samples (scrapes of rock surfaces or sediment cores) were collected intertidally along each of 3 transects, spanning tide levels from the high intertidal to mean-lowest-low-water (zero tidal datum). Organisms (down to 1.0 mm in size) from these samples were sorted and identified. Community parameters including organism abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity were calculated for each sample. 43 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs.

  12. The impact of nutrition on differential methylated regions of the genome.

    PubMed

    Parle-McDermott, Anne; Ozaki, Mari

    2011-11-01

    Nutrition has always played an important role in health and disease, ranging from common diseases to its likely contribution to the fetal origins of adult disease. However, deciphering the molecular details of this role is much more challenging. The impact of nutrition on the methylome, i.e., DNA methylation, has received particular attention in more recent years. Our understanding of the complexity of the methylome is evolving as efforts to catalog the DNA methylation differences that exist between different tissues and individuals continue. We review selected examples of animal and human studies that provide evidence that, in fact, specific genes and DNA methylation sites are subject to change during development and during a lifetime as a direct response to nutrition. Investigation of the methyl donors folate, choline, and methionine provide the most compelling evidence of a role in mediating DNA methylation changes. Although a number of candidate regions/genes have been identified to date, we are just at the beginning in terms of cataloging so-called nutrient-sensitive methylation variable positions in humans. PMID:22332089

  13. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  14. Assessing the Impacts of Climate, Groundwater and Land Use on Regional Geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barkwith, A.; Hurst, M. D.; Ellis, M. A.; Coulthard, T. J.

    2014-12-01

    The CLiDE (CAESAR-Lisflood-DESC) platform integrates a variety of modelling components, in order to represent coupled environmental processes and assess their co-evolution over daily to centennial time-scales. A distributed surface-subsurface water partitioning component lies conceptually at the platform centre; providing the key linkages between the atmospheric, sediment transport and vegetation components. Fluvial sediment transport is simulated using the CAESAR model, which has previously been used to investigate a variety of sediment transport, erosional and depositional processes at centennial to millennial scales. Driving CAESAR with a higher resolution, distributed hydrology allows CLiDE to effectively capture geomorphological features that operate at sub-centennial timescales. Non-fluvial sediment transport at the mesoscale is handled by a debris flow component, which drives sediment transport through exchanges of energy and is triggered through modification of local gradient and hydrology. The coupled nature of the platform allows a variety of geomorphological assessments to be undertaken. We present a variety of regional scale, modelling case studies, which assess the impacts of climate, groundwater and land use on geomorphology. We investigate the non-linear influence of these drivers on the spatial and temporal evolution of river basins and find that antecedent conditions can have a major influence on future erosion events.

  15. Impacts of Wind Farms on the Regional Climate on the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatterjee, Fabien; Allaerts, Dries; van Lipzig, Nicole; Meyers, Johan

    2015-04-01

    Offshore wind deployment is foreseen to expand dramatically in the coming years. The strong expansion of offshore wind parks is likely to affect the regional climatology of the coastal areas surrounding the Atlantic, North Sea and Baltic Sea. A wind farm parameterisation based on Blahak et al. 2010 and Fitch et al. 2010 has been implemented in an idealised version of COSMO-CLM, where an Ekman spiral in neutral conditions is simulated, and has been validated against LES data. A mean bias of 8.5% is observed for the wind speed below the rotor top tip. In a second step, the wind farm parameterisation is implemented in a non idealised version of COSMO-CLM over the North Sea at a kilometer scale resolution. The wind farms enhance the turbulent kinetic energy above and within the rotor. This has an impact on the evaporation at the surface, and low level cloud cover. Futhermore, wind farms change the shape of the Ekman spiral. This has consequences on the height of the planetary boundary layer, which may affect power production.

  16. Impacts of climate change on erosion in humid and dry Mediterranean regions of Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Marisa Santos, Juliana; Sampaio, Elsa; Corte-Real, João; Moreira, Madalena; Jacinto, Rita; Bernard-Jannin, Léonard

    2014-05-01

    Soils in the Mediterranean regions of Europe are often vulnerable to soil erosion, due to a combination of annual plant cover cycles, centuries of human use, the concentration of rainstorms in a short period of the year, and other factors. Climate change could bring about a warmer and drier climate, limiting vegetation growth while bringing heavier storms during winter. This could eventually lead to higher risks of soil losses and the consequential problems of land degradation and desertification. Project ERLAND, which began in 2009, is assessing these risks for two Mediterranean research catchments in Portugal, with four main goals: (i) collect data to understand hydrological and erosion processes in representative catchments; (ii) use this data to parameterize the SWAT eco-hydrological and erosion model as accurately as possible; (iii) use future socio-economic scenarios to estimate both impacts on climate change and on future land-use practices; and (iv) apply the SWAT model for these scenarios and estimate the consequences for soil erosion rates. The Macieira catchment is in a wet Mediterranean climate region, with high rainfall (c. 1300 mm.y-1) but a distinct summer dry season; erosion processes are associated with periods of sparse cover in autumn in fields with a pasture-corn rotation, but also with forest plantations after clear-cutting and especially after forest fires. The occurrence of a forest fire inside the catchment in 2011 allowed an analysis of the role played by this kind of disturbances on soil erosion. Climate change could bring less erosive rainfall events, but an increase in fire frequency, and therefore a potential shift of erosion from agriculture to forest land-uses. The Guadalupe catchment has a dry Mediterranean climate (rainfall of c. 550 mm.y-1); erosion processes occur mostly in permanent crops (olive trees) and winter cereal fields. Climate change could bring a concentration of rainfall in winter, as well as an increase in the area

  17. The direct impact of landslides on household income in tropical regions: A case study from the Rwenzori Mountains in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Mertens, K; Jacobs, L; Maes, J; Kabaseke, C; Maertens, M; Poesen, J; Kervyn, M; Vranken, L

    2016-04-15

    Landslides affect millions of people worldwide, but theoretical and empirical studies on the impact of landslides remain scarce, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study proposes and applies a method to estimate the direct impact of landslides on household income and to investigate the presence of specific risk sharing and mitigation strategies towards landslides in a tropical and rural environment. An original cross-sectional household survey is used in combination with geographical data to acquire detailed information on livelihoods and on hazards in the Rwenzori mountains, Uganda. Ordinary least square regressions and probit estimations with village fixed effects are used to estimate the impact of landslides and the presence of mitigation strategies. Geographical information at household level allows to disentangle the direct impact from the indirect effects of landslides. We show that the income of affected households is substantially reduced during the first years after a landslide has occurred. We find that members of recently affected households participate more in wage-employment or in self-employed activities, presumably to address income losses following a landslide. Yet, we see that these jobs do not provide sufficient revenue to compensate for the loss of income from agriculture. Given that landslides cause localized shocks, finding a significant direct impact in our study indicates that no adequate risk sharing mechanisms are in place in the Rwenzori sub-region. These insights are used to derive policy recommendations for alleviating the impact of landslides in the region. By quantifying the direct impact of landslides on household income in an agricultural context in Africa this study draws the attention towards a problem that has been broadly underestimated so far and provides a sound scientific base for disaster risk reduction in the region. Both the methodology and the findings of this research are applicable to other tropical regions with high

  18. Identify the impacts of climate on the regional transportation of haze pollution and inter-cities correspondence within the Yangtze River Delta Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Hang; Huang, Zhongwen; Zhang, Huiling; Tong, Lei

    2016-04-01

    Regional haze pollution has become an important environmental issue in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) area. Aerosol samples from Nanjing, Shanghai, Ningbo and Li'an were collected and analyzed for their chemical compositions and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios. The routine air monitoring data reported from national atmospheric monitoring networks was also collected to identify the impacts of the subtropical monsoon. Regional PM2.5 pollution was confirmed in the YRD region by significant correlations and similar cyclical characteristics of PM2.5 among study cities. The analysis of backward trajectory reveals that northerly is the prevailing wind from October to March, while the prevailing wind direction is from southeast for the other time. The Granger causality test results indicate that strong causal correlations exist between the cities along the pathways of seasonal monsoons. Variance decomposition of the multiple time series of PM2.5 from study area also indicated the upwind area cities contribute significantly to that of downwind area cities, which suggested the regional transportation of aerosol is governed by the prevailing air mass movement, i.e. the seasonal monsoons. Moreover, the variations of carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of particle samples from the cities downwind direction demonstrate significant lag behind that of upwind direction city. Eventually, these statistical methodologies can be applied to forecast the daily PM2.5 concentrations in each city on a regional scale, and as well serve as an important reference for the regional air pollutant control during the policy making process.

  19. Implications of NARCCAP on the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change and an Integrated U.S. Water-Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Blanc, E.; Strzepek, K. M.; Monier, E.

    2012-12-01

    In order for regional, integrated impact and adaptation assessments to be regarded as risk-based approaches, they must encompass to the fullest extent possible, the range of regional and global climate-change uncertainties as well as consistent economic pathways that underlie them. As such, the computational burden on any probabilistic construction (i.e. frequency distribution) that quantify these uncertainties is substantial when considering the large ensembles required from multiple, regional climate models. Thus, hybrid or statistical methods that encapsulate salient trend signals from regional climate models yet avoid the exhaustive amount of explicit simulations but remain consistent with the socio-economic pathway under which it is forced, would be highly desirable. We therefore present a hybrid frequency distribution (HFD) approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved climate-change kernel (CCK) patterns from archived climate-model projections. The approach has been extended to the climate-model outputs of the North American Regional Climate Change Project (NARCCAP). Specifically, we compare the NARCCAP CCKs to those of CMIP3, CMIP5, as well as the corresponding climate models that force the NARCCAP models. Many of the NARCCAP CCKs retain the large-scale patterns of their climate-model counterparts. However, regional and seasonal exceptions are also seen and carry with them important important climate-impact consequences. We then assess the consequences of the NARCCAP HFDs to a U.S. water-impact, climate-change assessment performed by the Water Resource System (WRS) of the IGSM.

  20. Pulling Marbles from a Bag: Deducing the Regional Impact History of the SPA Basin from Impact-Melt Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, Barbara A.; Coker, Robert F.

    2010-01-01

    The South Pole Aitken (SPA) basin is the stratigraphically oldest identifiable lunar basin and is therefore one of the most important targets for absolute age-dating to help understand whether ancient lunar bombardment history smoothly declined or was punctuated by a cataclysm. A feasible near-term approach to this problem is to robotically collect a sample from near the center of the basin, where vertical and lateral mixing provided by post-basin impacts ensures that such a sample will be composed of small rock fragments from SPA itself, from local impact craters, and from faraway giant basins. The range of ages, intermediate spikes in the age distribution, and the oldest ages are all part of the definition of the absolute age and impact history recorded within the SPA basin.

  1. Land use impacts on lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Laukonis, Rymvidas

    2016-04-01

    Land use has important impacts on soils, surface and ground water quality. Urban agricultural areas are an important source of pollutants, which can reach lakes through surface runoff and underground circulation. Human intervention in the landscape is one of the major causes pollution and land degradation, thus it is very important to understand the impacts of and use on environment and if they have some spatial pattern (Pereira et al., 2013, 2015; Brevik et al., 2016). The identification of the spatial pattern of lakes pollution is in Alytus area (Lithuania) is fundamental, since they provide an important range of ecosystem services to local communities, including food and recreational activities. Thus, the degradation of these environments can induce important economic losses. In this context, it is import to identify the areas with high pollutant accumulation and the environmental and human factors responsible for it. The objective of this work is to study identify the amount of some important nutrients resultant from human activities in lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania). Alytus region is located in southern part of Lithuania and has an approximate area of 40 km2. Inside this region we analyzed several water quality parameters of 55 lakes, including, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), suspended materials (SM), water clarity (WC) biochemical oxygen demand (BDO), total phosphorous (TP), total Nitrogen (TN), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), as other environmental variables as altitude, lake maximum deep (MD), lake area and land use according Corine land cover classification (CLC2006). Previous to data analysis, data normality and homogeneity of the variances, was assessed with the Shapiro-wilk and Leven's test, respectively. The majority of the data did not respect the Gaussian distribution and the heteroscedasticity, even after a logarithmic, and box-cox transformation. Thus, in this work we used the logarithmic transformed data to do a principal

  2. Land use impacts on lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Laukonis, Rymvidas

    2016-04-01

    Land use has important impacts on soils, surface and ground water quality. Urban agricultural areas are an important source of pollutants, which can reach lakes through surface runoff and underground circulation. Human intervention in the landscape is one of the major causes pollution and land degradation, thus it is very important to understand the impacts of and use on environment and if they have some spatial pattern (Pereira et al., 2013, 2015; Brevik et al., 2016). The identification of the spatial pattern of lakes pollution is in Alytus area (Lithuania) is fundamental, since they provide an important range of ecosystem services to local communities, including food and recreational activities. Thus, the degradation of these environments can induce important economic losses. In this context, it is import to identify the areas with high pollutant accumulation and the environmental and human factors responsible for it. The objective of this work is to study identify the amount of some important nutrients resultant from human activities in lake water quality in Alytus region (Lithuania). Alytus region is located in southern part of Lithuania and has an approximate area of 40 km2. Inside this region we analyzed several water quality parameters of 55 lakes, including, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), suspended materials (SM), water clarity (WC) biochemical oxygen demand (BDO), total phosphorous (TP), total Nitrogen (TN), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), as other environmental variables as altitude, lake maximum deep (MD), lake area and land use according Corine land cover classification (CLC2006). Previous to data analysis, data normality and homogeneity of the variances, was assessed with the Shapiro-wilk and Leven's test, respectively. The majority of the data did not respect the Gaussian distribution and the heteroscedasticity, even after a logarithmic, and box-cox transformation. Thus, in this work we used the logarithmic transformed data to do a principal

  3. An Impact Analysis of Regional Industry--University Interactions: The Case of Industrial PhD Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gustavsson, Linda; Nuur, Cali; Söderlind, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The authors discuss Triple Helix collaborations in the context of regional competitiveness. Through an exploratory case study, they identify and analyse the impact of the establishment of industrial PhD schools for participating industry and universities. The study was conducted in Sweden in 2014 and focuses on three industry--university…

  4. The Technological Impact of the E-Rate Program on a School District of the Texas Coastal Bend Region

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vazquez-Cruz, Juan Diego

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the impact of the E-Rate program on students, teachers, administrators, and the technology environment of a public school district in the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The study was conducted through a mixed methods design, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative data collection; the research design was a…

  5. Short-Term Community Education/Training for Communities/Regions Anticipating Energy Development-Related Impact.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Gary

    It is the intent of this paper to demonstrate the role of a short-term (approximiately 4-14 hours), populace-based education/training approach in the preparation of rural communities and/or regions anticipating energy development-related impact. The approach is presented in comparison with other models and is defined and outlined through the…

  6. RIFLE: regional impact of facility location on the economy. User's guide, volume 2. Maryland economic, fiscal, and social impact assessment model

    SciTech Connect

    Holland, P.D.; Harms, P.L.

    1983-02-01

    This user's guide describes the non-computerized models in the RIFLE (Regional Impact of Facility Location on the Economy) system. The RIFLE system consists of seven computerized models and three non-computerized models which can be used to analyze the economic, demographic, and fiscal impacts of major facilities upon the counties in which they are located and adjacent counties. Volume II describes the non-computerized models in the RIFLE system. These models represent an alternative approach to estimating costs of providing government services to in-migrating households.

  7. Volcanoes and ENSO in millennium simulations: global impacts and regional reconstructions in East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Dan; Blender, Richard; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2013-02-01

    The impacts and cooperative effects of volcanic eruptions and ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) are analyzed in a millennium simulation for 800-2005 AD using the earth system model (ESM) ECHAM5/MPIOM/JSBACH subject to anthropogenic and natural forcings. The simulation comprises two ensembles, a first with weak (E1, five members) and a second with strong (E2, three members) variability total solar irradiance. In the analysis, the 21 most intense eruptions are selected in each ensemble member. Volcanoes with neutral ENSO states during two preceding winters cause a global cooling in the year after eruptions up to -2.5°C. The nonsignificant positive values in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate an El Niño-like warming. In the winter after an eruption, warming is mainly found in the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea in E2 warming extends to Siberia and central Asia. The recovery times for the volcano-induced cooling (average for 31 eruptions) vary globally between 1 and 12 years. There is no significant increase of El Niño events after volcanic eruptions in both ensembles. The simulated temperature and the drought indices are compared with corresponding reconstructions in East Asia. Volcanoes cause a dramatic cooling in west China (-2°C) and a drought in East China during the year after the eruption. The reconstructions show similar cooling patterns with smaller magnitudes and confirm the dryness in East China. Without volcanoes, El Niño events reduce summer precipitation in the North, while South China becomes wetter; La Niña events cause opposite effects. El Niño events in the winters after eruptions compensate the cooling caused by volcanoes in most regions of China (consistent with reconstructions), while La Niña events intensify the cooling (up to -2.5°C). The simulated and reconstructed drought indices show tripole patterns which are altered by El Niño events. The simulated impact of the Tambora eruption in 1815, which caused the "year without summer

  8. Water Security, Climate Forcings and Public Health Impacts in Emerging Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Craver, V.; Boving, T. B.

    2014-12-01

    Our world is rapidly urbanizing, with more than 80% of world's population is expected to be living in a city by the end of the century. A majority of these nations are rapidly urbanizing due to massive rural-to-urban migratory trends, with rapid development of unplanned urban settlements, or slums, with lack of adequate water or sanitation facilities and other municipal amenities. With global environmental change, natural disasters will expose millions more to drought, floods, and disease epidemics, and existing vulnerabilities will worsen. At the same time, rapid urbanization and fast changing land-use leads to widespread damage of infrastructure by stormwater, especially in lowlands and economically poor areas. The factor that consistently stands out among different cities from both the developed and the developing worlds is that the slums are typically the most vulnerable to water related natural hazards and climatic threats, such as water scarcity and quality issues in drought conditions, or water and sanitation breakdown and stormwater contamination problems. Onsite or decentralized water, wastewater and stormwater treatment as well as point-of-use water treatment options can be an economic, safe, and reliable alternative to conventional large-scale treatment especially, in urban fringes as well as rural areas. These systems can be designed to fit communities in terms of their economic, cultural, environmental, and demographic resources. As part of this study, we develop a database of urban water quality and quantity indices such as with urban land-use, water usage, climate, and socio-economic characteristics in various emerging regions in the world. We analyze past and current data to identify and quantify long-term trends and the impacts of large-scale climatic and anthropogenic changes on urban hydrology and health impacts. We specifically focus on five major cities from distinct groups of countries and geographies: Providence, RI, USA from the developed

  9. Characterizing the impact of urban emissions on regional aerosol particles; airborne measurements during the MEGAPOLI experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freney, E. J.; Sellegri, K.; Canonaco, F.; Colomb, A.; Borbon, A.; Michoud, V.; Doussin, J.-F.; Crumeyrolle, S.; Amarouch, N.; Pichon, J.-M.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Beekmann, M.; Schwarzenböeck, A.

    2013-09-01

    , and have an impact on aerosol composition on a regional scale. They provide a quantitative measure of this impact in terms of urban plume composition and evolution relative to background aerosol composition.

  10. Space-Time Distribution of Tsunami Impact in the European-Meditterranean Region as Results from a New Tsunami Catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diakogianni, Georgia; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; Fokaefs, Anna; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Triantafyllou, Ioanna

    2015-04-01

    We have compiled a new tsunami catalogue covering the entire European and Mediterranean (EM) region from pre-historical times up to the present. The catalogue is of increased completeness and homogeneity with respect to previous ones containing more than 370 events with reliability assignment to all the events listed. New historical events were inserted, while revised parameters of historical tsunamigenic earthquakes were extensively adopted particularly for the most active region of the eastern Mediterranean. In association to the catalogue, an inventory of tsunami impact was created with the main attributes being the numbers of people killed and injured, the damage to buildings, vessels, cultivated land and to other property. The inventory includes also a record of the tsunami environmental impact, such as soil erosion, geomorphological changes, boulder replacement and tsunami sediment deposits. Data on the tsunami impact were used to assign tsunami intensity in the 12-point Papadopoulos-Imamura (2001) scale for the majority of the events listed. The tsunami impact was studied as for its space and time distribution. In space, the tsunami impact was mapped in terms of tsunami intensity and impact zones were determined. The time distribution of the tsunami impact was examined for each one of the impact zones. Leaving aside large pre-historical tsunamis, such as the one produced by the LBA or Minoan eruption of Thera (Santorini) volcano, due to the lack of certain impact data, it has been found that the main impact comes from extreme, earthquake tsunamigenic events, such the ones of AD 365 in Crete, 551 in Lebanon, 1303 in Crete, 1755 in Lisbon. However, high impact may also occur from events of lower magnitude, such as the 1908 tsunami in Messina straits and the 1956 tsunami in the South Aegean, which underlines the strong dependence of the impact on the community exposure. Another important finding is that the cumulative impact of relatively moderate or even small

  11. Measurements of HONO in a Forested Region of Alberta Impacted by Oil Sands Processing Facilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLaren, R.; Nikelski, K.; Lobo, A.; Davis, Z.

    2015-12-01

    During the summer of 2013, measurements of NO2, SO2 and HONO were made at a ground site in a rural forested region of Alberta known to be impacted by several oil sands processing facilities. Such sources are known to be the main sources of NOx and SOx emissions in the region. Nitrous acid (HONO) can be emitted directly from combustion sources in addition to being formed from the heterogeneous hydrolysis of NO2 on moist surfaces. The measurements were made both day and night by Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) along a 2.304 km optical return path through the forest canopy using a 30-corner cube reflector. Nitrous acid (HONO) is of particular relevance to atmospheric chemistry as it can contribute to photochemical production of the OH radical, the main daytime oxidant in the troposphere, which was estimated to exceed 2•107 molec cm-3 on several days during the study, giving rise to rapid aerosol formation. Typically in urban areas HONO mixing ratios accumulate during the night, and are lost the next morning due to photolysis (HONO + hv→ OH + NO2). During this study however, HONO mixing ratios were found to be quite low with a median nightime mixing ratio of ~ 200 ppt. This is attributed to the very low nighttime NO2 precursor levels, perhaps in combination with a high surface area for deposition on the coniferous canopy. The low nighttime mixing ratios of NO2 and SO2 were driven by limited nocturnal mixing of elevated plumes down to the surface, while high daytime levels of NO2 and SO2 were episodic and frequently driven by daytime fumigation of the elevated plumes to the surface with additional contribution from surface sources of NOx. Daytime mixing ratios of HONO persisted longer than expected with median noontime mixing ratios of >50ppt. While this can imply an additional daytime source of HONO as has been observed by many others, it may also result from reduced photolysis rates below the canopy. This issue is being pursued more

  12. Calibration studies on mollusc shells in the Peru-Chile coastal region submitted to ENSO impacts.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortlieb, L.; Guzman, N.; El Jouhari, L.; Carré, M.

    2003-04-01

    Mollusc shells have an exceptional potential for high resolution paleoclimatic records and, unlike corals, ice cores and even tree rings, have the advantage to be widely distributed along the world coastlines. For the reconstruction of seasonal or intra annual climate variability, this kind of fast-growing biogenic material is particularly suitable. Several preliminary studies involving stable isotope variations within modern, as well as Early and Middle Holocene, bivalve shells from Peru and northern Chile showed relatively short-lived excursions which depict thermal anomalies linked to regional ENSO impacts. The Eastern Pacific region (30^oS-1^oS) which is actually the area where the strongest SST signal of ENSO is obtained, and where abundant archaeological shell deposits and fossiliferous marine terrace units are preserved, thus offers a great opportunity to develop a new proxy for paleo-ENSO studies. Oxygen isotope data were classically obtained through series of sub-samples along the major growth axis of marine molluscs. However this traditional approach only provides a rough evidence for the record of anomalous conditions during weeks or months. Recent technical developments allowing a much higher resolution in the geochemical measurements and in the microstructural observations of the sampled material, associated to a better understanding of the biomineralisation processes, renewed significantly the modality of the calibration studies. The CONCHAS project involves coupled measurements of seawater parameters and variations of geochemical and isotopic composition at a daily, or subdaily, scale. The studies bear upon half a dozen species of molluscs (bivalves and one gastropod) and include inter-specific comparisons on individuals growing in a given environment (natural or controlled artificially). The first results indicate clearly that all the factors that control the growth rate of the carbonate skeleton and the precise timing of the biomineral deposition

  13. Impact of anthropogenic emissions from major population centers on global and regional aerosol budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkel, Daniel; Tost, Holger; Lawrence, Mark

    2013-04-01

    In urban areas, in particular in major population centers (MPCs), anthropogenic pollutants can dominate over natural emissions and cause severe air quality problems. We used emission annihilation scenario simulations in the atmospheric chemistry global circulation model EMAC to study the individual and cumulative impact of four major aerosol species from MPCs on the global and regional aerosol budgets. Black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulphur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) were used to represent emissions of primary aerosols and of precursors gases for secondary aerosols sulphate and nitrate, respectively. Moreover, feedbacks resulting from changed emissions on other atmospheric constituents were assessed and the linearity in the burden changes due to the emission changes was discussed. Aerosol sulphate showed the strongest decrease in the global budget and also the most widespread changes in the tropospheric column density, whereas the smallest global decrease with only local changes was found for particulate organic matter. The maximum reduction was found around the emission sources and in downwind regions. The primary emitted aerosols showed almost no feedback on other species. In contrast, many gas-aerosol equilibria were affected when the SO2 and NOx emissions were reduced. In the case with the reduced MPC-NOx emissions, many species participating in the NOx-ozone (O3) chemistry showed a response in their concentrations. In particular, ozone changed differently in extra-tropical and tropical cities, which is in accordance with findings of Butler and Lawrence (2009). Moreover, the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere was changed. The hydroxyl radical concentration changed similarly to O3, which lead to an increase in the tropospheric carbon monoxide concentration and to locally greater SO2 concentrations. Changes in the emissions for black carbon, particulate organic matter, and SO2 resulted in almost linear responses of the corresponding

  14. Characterizing the impact of urban emissions on regional aerosol particles: airborne measurements during the MEGAPOLI experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freney, E. J.; Sellegri, K.; Canonaco, F.; Colomb, A.; Borbon, A.; Michoud, V.; Doussin, J.-F.; Crumeyrolle, S.; Amarouche, N.; Pichon, J.-M.; Bourianne, T.; Gomes, L.; Prevot, A. S. H.; Beekmann, M.; Schwarzenböeck, A.

    2014-02-01

    yields, we were able to predict ~50% of the measured organics. These airborne measurements during the MEGAPOLI experiment show that urban emissions contribute to the formation of OA and have an impact on aerosol composition on a regional scale.

  15. Isotope Hydrology of Arctic Tundra Lakes in a Region Impacted by Permafrost Disturbance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, D. L.

    2009-05-01

    A projected "hot spot" of climate warming and development is the Mackenzie River Delta region, Northwest Territories, Canada. The upland tundra areas within the Mackenzie Gas Project development area north of Inuvik contain thousands of small lakes and ponds with poorly defined ephemeral drainage that are underlain by thick permafrost and ice-rich sediments for which the basic water balance controls are not fully understood. Natural retrogressive thaw slumps are common along lakeshores and the rapid drainage of ice-rich permafrost-dammed lakes has been occurring. Ongoing oil/gas exploration activities and infrastructure construction may result in terrain disturbance and localized degradation of permafrost, while climate change may increase the magnitude and frequency of thermokarst processes. These disturbed lakes are believed to act as historical analogues for the future effects of climate change on the hydrology, geochemistry, and aquatic ecology of small tundra lake catchments in the continuous permafrost zone of northwestern Canada. Environment Canada initiated an integrated research program in 2005 with the overall goal of improving our understanding of hydro-ecological processes in freshwater aquatic ecosystems affected by shoreline slumping vs. pristine lakes. Limited catchment studies have examined water-balance parameters (e.g., precipitation, evaporation, and surface flows) for tundra lakes in the development area. Enrichment of oxygen-18 (18O) and deuterium (2H) stable isotopes in surface waters have been shown to be useful indicators of water balance variations in remote permafrost regions of Canada where hydroclimatic information is very limited. In particular, information on evaporation: inflow (E/I) ratios and residence times would provide useful information for estimating appropriate water withdrawals from lakes within the proposed development area. A key question is "does permafrost slumping impact the hydrology of tundra lakes via catchment area

  16. Land use impact on soil quality in eastern Himalayan region of India.

    PubMed

    Singh, A K; Bordoloi, L J; Kumar, Manoj; Hazarika, S; Parmar, Brajendra

    2014-04-01

    Quantitative assessment of soil quality is required to determine the sustainability of land uses in terms of environmental quality and plant productivity. Our objective was to identify the most appropriate soil quality indicators and to evaluate the impact of six most prevalent land use types (natural forestland, cultivated lowland, cultivated upland terrace, shifting cultivation, plantation land, and grassland) on soil quality in eastern Himalayan region of India. We collected 120 soil samples (20 cm depth) and analyzed them for 29 physical, chemical, and biological soil attributes. For selection of soil quality indicators, principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on the measured attributes, which provided four principal components (PC) with eigenvalues >1 and explaining at least 5% of the variance in dataset. The four PCs together explained 92.6% of the total variance. Based on rotated factor loadings of soil attributes, selected indicators were: soil organic carbon (SOC) from PC-1, exchangeable Al from PC-2, silt content from PC-3, and available P and Mn from PC-4. Indicators were transformed into scores (linear scoring method) and soil quality index (SQI) was determined, on a scale of 0-1, using the weighting factors obtained from PCA. SQI rating was the highest for the least-disturbed sites, i.e., natural forestland (0.93) and grassland (0.87), and the lowest for the most intensively cultivated site, i.e., cultivated upland terrace (0.44). Ratings for the other land uses were shifting cultivation (0.60) > cultivated low land (0.57) > plantation land (0.54). Overall contribution (in percent) of the indicators in determination of SQI was in the order: SOC (58%) > exch. Al (17.1%) > available P (8.9%) > available Mn (8.2%) > silt content (7.8%). Results of this study suggest SOC and exch. Al as the two most powerful indicators of soil quality in study area. Thus, organic C and soil acidity management holds the key to improve soil

  17. Successive Impacts Of The Earth by Several Halo CMEs From Active Region NOAA 652

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yousef, Shahinaz; El Nawawy, M. S.; El-Nazer, M.; Yousef, Mohamed

    Several Halo CMEs hit the Earth in the second half of July 2004. They were produced by the very large complex active region NOAA 652 (Yousef et al. 2005). For CME details consult the web (ftp://lasco6.nascom.nasa.gov/pub/lasco/status/LASCO_CME_List_004).

    We focus on the 26th -27th of July CME hit. This CME was associated with the long-duration M1 flare at 25/15:14. It made a very fast Sun to Earth transit-just over 31 hours (SGAS 27 July 2004). A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 25/18:55. Solar wind speed remained elevated from 500 to over 700 km/s. A Severe Geomagnetic storm was observed and the aurora was seen as far as California.

    A strong shock impacted the ACE spacecraft at 26/22:28. A sudden impulse (SI) of 96 nT was observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 22:51. The IMF Bz component was turned negative (-18 nT). Generally speaking, according to de Pater and Lissauer (2001), since a strong CME disturbance in the solar wind is usually preceded by an interplanetary shock followed by an enhanced density and velocity, the field strength first increases when the disturbance hits the magnetosphere, inducing an increase in the ring current. Several hours(up to over 25 hrs) the field strength Dst decreases dramatically during the storm main phase which typically lasts for a day The main phase is caused by an increase in the ring current, resulting from an enhanced particle flow towards the Earth. It is well known that geomagnetic storms tend to occur when IMF is directed southward. Magnetic reconnection occurs between the negative IMF and the magnetosphere thus opens the field lines with one end connected to the Earth (Dungey 1963). This magnetic reconnection allowed the protons and electrons to leak in. The proton and electron flux maximums occurred around the time of geomagnetic storm commencement which lasted for about 27 h (fig. 1). This is in agreement with the statement of Robinson (2003) that large numbers of energetic protons are

  18. Impact of lake-river connectivity and interflow on the Canadian RCM simulated regional climate and hydrology for Northeast Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.

    2016-04-01

    Lakes affect regional climate by modulating surface albedo, surface energy, and moisture budgets. This is especially important for regions such as Northeast Canada with approximately 10 % of the landmass covered by lakes, wetlands and rivers. From the regional hydrology perspective, interactions between lakes and rivers are important as streamflow patterns can be significantly modified by lake storage, and similarly lake levels can be modified by streamflows. In this study, using a suite of experiments performed with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA40 reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries for the 1979-2010 period, lake-river-atmosphere interactions and their impact on the regional climate/hydrology of north-east Canada are assessed. In these CRCM5 simulations, a one-dimensional lake model represents lakes, while the rivers are modeled using a distributed routing scheme, and one of the simulations includes interflow, i.e. lateral flow of water in the soil layers. Comparison of CRCM5 simulations with and without lakes suggests significant differences in winter/summer precipitation and winter temperature for the study region. CRCM5 simulations performed with and without lake-river interactions suggest improved representation of streamflows when lake storage and routing are taken into account. Adding the interflow process leads to increased streamflows during summer and fall seasons for the majority of the rivers, causing modest changes to land-atmosphere interactions via modified soil moisture. The impact of interflow on streamflow, obtained in this study, is comparable to the impact of lake-atmosphere interactions on streamflows. This study clearly demonstrates the need for realistic representation of lake-river interactions in regional climate models for realistic simulation of regional hydrology, particularly streamflows.

  19. Modeling the Impact of Uganda’s Safe Male Circumcision Program: Implications for Age and Regional Targeting

    PubMed Central

    Kripke, Katharine; Vazzano, Andrea; Kirungi, William; Musinguzi, Joshua; Opio, Alex; Ssempebwa, Rhobbinah; Nakawunde, Susan; Kyobutungi, Sheila; Akao, Juliet N.; Magala, Fred; Mwidu, George; Castor, Delivette

    2016-01-01

    Background Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC) to 80% of men ages 15–49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program’s progress, and to refine the implementation approach. Methods and Findings The Decision Makers’ Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM) to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20–34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10–19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15–34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed. Conclusion Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda’s SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10–34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund’s new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence. PMID:27410234

  20. Impact of Water Availability on Regional Power System Operations - A Case Study of ERCOT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levin, T.; Zhou, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Impact of water availability on regional power system operations - A case study of ERCOT Thermal power plants are the largest single source of water withdrawals in the United States, mainly for cooling purposes. The amount of water that is required for cooling is highly dependent on a number of factors including the generation technologies being used, the temperature of the input water, and the total electricity load in the system. During summer months, many of these factors coincide to greatly increase the demand for water in a power system. Electricity demand typically reaches its annual peak when temperatures are high due to increased air conditioning loads. Ambient water temperatures also increase, meaning that greater quantities of water are required to provide the same amount of cooling at thermal generation plants. Finally, water availability is generally constrained due to seasonal effects and potential droughts. This raises concerns that water scarcity may lead to forced de-rating at some power plants during periods of peak demand, resulting in a more vulnerable and less reliable energy system. While increasing attention has recently been given to the inexorable link between water and energy, most commercial power models do not explicitly account for water use when optimizing system operation. We apply the AURORAxmp power modeling software to a case study analysis of the ERCOT power system to determine the water requirements of the system during periods of peak power demand. We then analyze water availability by location and time to identify potential supply shortages, which may reduce actual power generation availability. These data are fed back into the power systems model and specific generation units are de-rated as necessitated by water constraints. We then analyze these results to determine how the optimal generation mix, system reliability, and wholesale electricity prices may be affected by when the ERCOT power system is operated under water

  1. Methanogenesis: Seasonal changes in human impacted regions of Ashtamudi estuary (Kerala, South India)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reshmi, R. R.; Deepa Nair, K.; Zachariah, E. J.; Vincent, Salom Gnana Thanga

    2015-04-01

    Environmental variables as well as methanogenic abundance and activity were analysed in selected human impacted regions of Ashtamudi estuary. Sediment samples were collected during summer and monsoon of 2013. Each was analysed for environmental variables such as temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, sulphate, total kjeldahl nitrogen, organic carbon, organic matter and redox potential. Abundance and methanogenic potential of two distinct groups of methanogenic archaea (i.e. aceticlastic and methylotrophic methanogens) were quantified by incubating the sediment samples in basal media, added with acetate or methanol as substrate. Most of the environmental variables showed significant differences spatially and temporally. Among the environmental variables, temperature, pH, electrical conductivity and salinity were higher during summer, while total kjeldahl nitrogen, sulphate and organic carbon were higher during monsoon. Abundance of both aceticlastic and methylotrophic methanogens showed significant variations both spatially and temporally. Aceticlastic methanogens were abundant during monsoon, with a maximum value of 810 ± 13 CFU g-1, and methylotrophic methanogens were abundant during summer, with a maximum value of 1770 ± 30 CFU g-1. Results of methanogenic potential of sediment samples showed a range of 0.01 ± 0.00 to 12.03 ± 0.35 mol m-3. Among the two substrates, methanol favoured the abundance of methylotrophic methanogens, while acetate induced the methanogenic activity. Methanogenic activity was higher during monsoon than summer that can be attributed to the favourable sedimentary conditions (like reduced redox potential and increased substrate availability). Aceticlastic methanogens were abundant at bottom layers and methylotrophic methanogens in top layers of the sediments. The results of canonical correspondence analysis revealed the existence of linear relationship between methanogenic archaea and environmental variables among the sampling

  2. Biogeophysical impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate changes in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Y.; Markkanen, T.; Backman, L.; Henttonen, H. M.; Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Mäkelä, H.; Laaksonen, A.

    2014-07-01

    Land cover changes can impact the climate by influencing the surface energy and water balance. Unproductive peatlands were extensively drained to stimulate forest growth in Finland over the second half of 20th century. The aim of this study is to investigate the biogeophysical effects of peatland forestation on climate change in Finland. Two sets of 18 year climate simulations were done with the regional climate model REMO by using land cover data based on pre-drainage (1920s) and post-drainage (2000s) Finnish National Forest Inventories. The results show that in the most intensive peatland forestation area located in the middle west of Finland, the differences in monthly averaged daily mean two-metre air temperature show a spring warming of up to 0.43 K in April, whereas a slight cooling of less than 0.1 K in general is found from May till October. Consequently, snow clearance days over that area are advanced up to 5 days in the mean of 15 years. No clear signal is found for precipitation. Through analysing the simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth over five selected subregions, a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation is found between decreased surface albedo and increased surface air temperature in the snow melting period. Our modelled results show good qualitative agreements with the observational data. In general, decreased albedo in snow-melting period and increased evapotranspiration in the growing period are the most important biogeophysical aspects induced by peatland forestation that cause changes in climate.

  3. Impact of plasma sheath on rocket-based E-region ion measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imtiaz, Nadia; Burchill, Johnathan; Marchand, Richard

    2015-01-01

    We model the particle velocity distribution functions around the entrance window of the Suprathermal Ion Imager (SII). The SII sensor was mounted on a 1 m boom carried by the scientific payload of NASA rocket 36.234 as part of Joule II mission to investigate Joule heating in the E-region ionosphere. The rocket flew above Northern Alaska on 19 January 2007. The payload was spin-stabilized with a period of 1.6 s, giving an apparent rotation of the ion flow velocity in the frame of reference of the payload. The SII sensor is an electrostatic analyzer that measures two dimensional slices of the distribution of the kinetic energies and arrival-angles of low energy ions. The study is concerned with the interpretation of data obtained from the SII sensor. For this purpose, we numerically investigate ram velocity effects on ions velocity distributions in the vicinity of the SII sensor aperture at an altitudes of approximately 150 km. The electrostatic sheath profiles surrounding the SII sensor, boom and payload are calculated numerically with the PIC code PTetra. It is observed that the direction of the ion flow velocity modifies the plasma sheath potential profile. This in turn impacts the velocity distributions of NO+ and ions at the aperture of the particle sensor. The velocity distribution functions at the sensor aperture are calculated by using test-particle modeling. These particle distribution functions are then used to inject particles in the sensor, and calculate the fluxes on the sensor microchannel plate (MCP), from which comparisons with the measurements can be made.

  4. Impact of climate change on Vea Catchment and irrigation scheme in Upper East Region of Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limantol, A. M.; Afouda, A.; Lenartz, B.; Agyare, W. A.

    2015-12-01

    The study assessed the future impact of climate change (CC) on water resources availability in the Vea catchment of the Upper East of Ghana for irrigated agriculture. A questionnaire survey targeting farmers with at least 30 years of farming experience in the area was conducted in 6 of the 11 agricultural extension areas (EAs) in the catchment (305 km2). Data on perception about CC, adaptation measures and barriers were captured by the questionnaire. Focus group discussions were also conducted in each of the 6 selected EAs. Additionally, 8 stakeholder institutions were interviewed. Climatic data over a period of 1972 to 2012 from four stations were evaluated. Future climate simulations from 16 Regional Climate Models were used to predict future streamflow with IHACRES runoff model. The WEAP model was used to assess future water availability in two future time slices, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. About 89.5% of 466 questioned farmers believe that temperature increased over the past 30 years, while over 94% of farmers believe that amount of rainfall; duration, intensity and rainy days decreased. Over 96% of farmers believe that their farms are extremely vulnerable to decreased rainfall, droughts and changed timing of rainfall. While analysis of climatic data shows rising trend in temperature, no long-term trend and no variability changes in both annual and monthly rainfall amounts were evident. High evapotranspiration due to rising temperature may have triggered the farmers' perception about rainfall trend and droughts in the area. Several measures such as cropping of new varieties, changing farm locations and use of more fertilizer have been employed by farmers to adjust to CC. It was found that CC could cause severe shortfall in water availability for irrigation and domestic supply in the coming decades. Government needs to assist farmers with alternative irrigation schemes and drought resistant crops in order to sustain livelihoods of farmers on the long run.

  5. Global and regional climate impacts of black carbon and co-emitted species from the on-road diesel sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lund, Marianne T.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Heyes, Chris; Klimont, Zbigniew; Samset, Bjørn H.

    2014-12-01

    Diesel vehicles are a significant source of black carbon (BC) and ozone precursors, which are important contributors to climate warming, degrade air quality and harm human health. Reducing diesel emissions could mitigate near-term climate change with significant co-benefits. This study quantifies the global and regional climate impacts of BC and co-emitted short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from present-day on-road diesel vehicles, as well as future impacts following a current legislation emission scenario. Atmospheric concentrations are calculated by the chemical transport model OsloCTM2. The following radiative forcing (RF) and equilibrium surface temperature responses are estimated. For year 2010 on-road diesel emissions we estimate a global-mean direct RF from BC of 44 m W/m2 and an equilibrium surface temperature response of 59 mK, including the impact of BC deposition on snow. Accounting for cooling and warming impacts of co-emitted SLCFs results in a net global-mean RF and warming of 28 mW/m2 and 48 mK, respectively. Using the concept of Regional Temperature change Potential (RTP), we find significant geographical differences in the responses to regional emissions. Accounting for the vertical sensitivities of the forcing/response relation amplifies these differences. In terms of individual source regions, emissions in Europe give the largest regional contribution to equilibrium warming caused by year 2010 on-road diesel BC, while Russia is most important for Arctic warming per unit emission. The largest contribution to warming caused by the year 2050 on-road diesel sector is from emissions in South Asia, followed by East Asia and the Middle East. Hence, in regions where current legislation is not sufficient to outweigh the expected growth in activity, accelerated policy implementation is important for further future mitigation.

  6. The Economic Impact of Eight Research Universities on the Boston Region

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simha, O. Robert

    2005-01-01

    The greater Boston region's eight research universities play a key role in the region's economic health and welfare. They are magnets for research and development talent and for billions of dollars in investment. These institutions contribute $7.4 billion dollars to the regional economy, jobs for about 50,000 university employees and 37,000…

  7. Regional variations in cancer survival: Impact of tumour stage, socioeconomic status, comorbidity and type of treatment in Norway.

    PubMed

    Skyrud, Katrine Damgaard; Bray, Freddie; Eriksen, Morten Tandberg; Nilssen, Yngvar; Møller, Bjørn

    2016-05-01

    Cancer survival varies by place of residence, but it remains uncertain whether this reflects differences in tumour, patient and treatment characteristics (including tumour stage, indicators of socioeconomic status (SES), comorbidity and information on received surgery and radiotherapy) or possibly regional differences in the quality of delivered health care. National population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway were used to identify cancer patients diagnosed in 2002-2011 (n = 258,675). We investigated survival from any type of cancer (all cancer sites combined), as well as for the six most common cancers. The effect of adjusting for prognostic factors on regional variations in cancer survival was examined by calculating the mean deviation, defined by the mean absolute deviation of the relative excess risks across health services regions. For prostate cancer, the mean deviation across regions was 1.78 when adjusting for age and sex only, but decreased to 1.27 after further adjustment for tumour stage. For breast cancer, the corresponding mean deviations were 1.34 and 1.27. Additional adjustment for other prognostic factors did not materially change the regional variation in any of the other sites. Adjustment for tumour stage explained most of the regional variations in prostate cancer survival, but had little impact for other sites. Unexplained regional variations after adjusting for tumour stage, SES indicators, comorbidity and type of treatment in Norway may be related to regional inequalities in the quality of cancer care. PMID:26679150

  8. Impact Ejecta in a Possible Tsunami Layer in the Hudson River: Regional or Local Event?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cagen, K. T.; Abbott, D.; Nitsche, F.; West, A.; Bunch, T.; Breger, D.; Slagle, A.; Carbotte, S.

    2009-03-01

    Recent discoveries point to a tsunami event in the New York metropolitan area approximately 2300 BP. Our discovery of impact ejecta deposited by the tsunami in the Hudson River suggests that the tsunami was caused by an impact in the Atlantic Ocean.

  9. Can Crop Models Simulate the ENSO Impacts on Regional Corn Yield in U.s. Corn Belt?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niyogi, D. S.; Liu, X.; Andresen, J.; Jain, A. K.; Kumar, A.; Kellner, O.; Elias, A.

    2013-12-01

    In this paper, we seek to answer two questions: 1. Whether climate variability/ ENSO events impact the corn yield in U.S. Corn Belt?; and 2.Can crop models capture these impacts?. First, we evaluated the relationships between ENSO events and regional corn yield in the U.S Corn Belt, by taking data from 18 representative crop reporting districts for a 30 year period (1981-2010). These data were compiled as part of a large multiscale NIFA project titled U2U that aims at making Climate Information Useful to Usable. We clustered the data for different ENSO phases and performed statistical analysis to understand the impacts on corn yield. The detrended observed data indicate that El Niño events have positive impact on corn yields while La Niña events have slightly negative impact. These results are statistically significant at 0.05 level. To investigate whether crop models can capture the impacts of El Niño / La Niña; we compared the yields from three different crop models of varying complexity (Hybrid Maize; DSSAT; and ISAM) with default/ common agronomic and onsite meteorological input. Simulated yields show similar pattern as seen in the observed data: higher yield for El Niño years, and lower yields for the La Niña years. However, we also found MAE (Mean absolute error) of simulations in El Niño years are higher than for the La Niña years and Neutral years. To understand whether the performance can be enhanced by providing regional climatology, hydroclimatological, or agronomic information - we conducted additional experiments with the Hybrid Maize models involving- (i) use of onsite versus regional reanalysis data - the hypothesis being that even if the onsite data may have limited ENSO signature; the reanalysis data will have a much stronger ENSO feedback embedded within; (ii) use of actual planting date versus the default value used in the crop models - to understand if the year to year agronomic practice might influence or improve the response to capture

  10. Impacts of anthropogenic forcing on regional climate simulation for CORDEX-East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Song Yee; Kang, Hyun Suk; Hyun, Yu Kyung

    2015-04-01

    Impacts of greenhouse gas and aerosol on climate change are crucial, so that it is trivial for CMIP models to consider anthropogenic forcing for current climate simulations and future projection as well. Meanwhile, for regional climate models, it is still ambiguous if those forcings are duplicated or not, since the large-scale information is provided from the GCM models through the lateral boundary condition. To answer this question, four experiments using the HadGEM3-RA were conducted within the CORDEX framework for the East Asia domain, which are defined as FIXF (Fixed forcing experiment), GHGS (Greenhouse gases forcing only on the FIXF), AERO (Aerosol forcing only on the FIXF), and ALL (Both forcings on the FIXF) experiments. All experiments were driven by the same GCM forcing, i.e., HadGEM2-AO. Simulation results for the current (27 years for 1979-2005) and future (30 years for 2071-2100) climate were analyzed. FIXF experiment simulated significant cold biases near the northwestern China and Mongolia. Compared to results from the FIXF, those from the ALL and AERO were better, particularly for the temperature in northwestern China and for the precipitation in southern China, Indonesia and northwestern Pacific. Reduced cold bias in northwestern China is highly associated with the aerosol forcing, and marginally associated with the greenhouse gases forcing. As a result, temperature simulated by ALL experiment shows less bias than any other experiments. In the future, surface air temperature was projected stronger in ALL than FIXF experiment in late 21st century. Especially, based on the future projection from the ALL experiment, increase in domain-averaged surface air temperature is about 3.0oC (4.2oC) under the RCP 4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In future change of precipitation, regardless of forcing experiments, annual mean precipitation over maritime continent and northwestern Pacific are expected to increase. And percent change in annual mean precipitation of ALL

  11. Impact of transient hypotension on regional cerebral blood flow in humans.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Nia C S; Smith, Kurt J; Bain, Anthony R; Wildfong, Kevin W; Numan, Tianne; Ainslie, Philip N

    2015-07-01

    We examined the impact of progressive hypotension with and without hypocapnia on regional extracranial cerebral blood flow (CBF) and intracranial velocities. Participants underwent progressive lower-body negative pressure (LBNP) until pre-syncope to inflict hypotension. End-tidal carbon dioxide was clamped at baseline levels (isocapnic trial) or uncontrolled (poikilocapnic trial). Middle cerebral artery (MCA) and posterior cerebral artery (PCA) blood velocities (transcranial Doppler; TCD), heart rate, blood pressure and end-tidal carbon dioxide were obtained continuously. Measurements of internal carotid artery (ICA) and vertebral artery (VA) blood flow (ICABF and VABF respectively) were also obtained. Overall, blood pressure was reduced by ~20% from baseline in both trials (P<0.001). In the isocapnic trial, end-tidal carbon dioxide was successfully clamped at baseline with hypotension, whereas in the poikilocapnic trial it was reduced by 11.1 mmHg (P<0.001) with hypotension. The decline in the ICABF with hypotension was comparable between trials (-139 ± 82 ml; ~30%; P<0.0001); however, the decline in the VABF was -28 ± 22 ml/min (~21%) greater in the poikilocapnic trial compared with the isocapnic trial (P=0.002). Regardless of trial, the blood flow reductions in ICA (-26 ± 14%) and VA (-27 ± 14%) were greater than the decline in MCA (-21 ± 15%) and PCA (-19 ± 10%) velocities respectively (P ≤ 0.01). Significant reductions in the diameter of both the ICA (~5%) and the VA (~7%) contributed to the decline in cerebral perfusion with systemic hypotension, independent of hypocapnia. In summary, our findings indicate that blood flow in the VA, unlike the ICA, is sensitive to changes hypotension and hypocapnia. We show for the first time that the decline in global CBF with hypotension is influenced by arterial constriction in the ICA and VA. Additionally, our findings suggest TCD measures of blood flow velocity may modestly underestimate changes in CBF during

  12. Assessment of the Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing at Bakken on Regional Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Z.; Lin, T.; Lim, S.; Borders, M.

    2015-12-01

    Unconventional oil production at the Bakken Shale of western North Dakota increased more than ten-fold from 2008 to 2014. Although unconventional oil production uses less water than conventional oil production per unit of energy, the cumulative water needs for unconventional oil production due to multiple drilling and fracturing operations may be locally or temporally significant. We collected and analyzed the data for a total of 8453 horizontal wells developed at Bakken in western North Dakota during 2007-2014. The hydraulic fracturing activities mainly occurred in a core area of four counties, including Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, and Williams. The annual total water used for hydraulic fracking in western North Dakota increased from 302 ac-ft in 2007 to 21,605 ac-ft in 2014, by more than 70 times in 8 years. The four-county core area accounted for about 90% of total hydraulic fracturing water use in western North Dakota. Compared to the total water uses of all types, hydraulic fracturing water use in the four-county core area accounted for 0.7% in 2007 and 43.1% in 2014. Statewide, this percentage increased from 0.1% to 6.1% in the same time period. As horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies matured for unconventional oil development at Bakken, the total depth and the total length of laterals per well seemed to reach an optimal value in the last four years (2011-2014). However, the number of fracturing stages and the volume of fracking water used per completion are still on the rise. The average water use per well increased from about 1.7 ac-ft in 2007 to 11.4 ac-ft in 2014. Correspondingly, the water intensity (volume of fracking water used per foot of laterals) increased from 67 gallon/ft in 2007 to about 372 gallon/ft 2014. The results helped us better understand the environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing at Bakken and better manage the water resources in the region.

  13. Environmental Impact Assessment of Shrimp Culture Practice in Southwest Coastal Region of Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Islam, M. M.; Rouf, M. A.; Hambrey, J.

    2008-12-01

    The rapid unplanned expansion of coastal aquaculture in Bangladesh poses risks in degrading environment. The unsustainable aquaculture practices are suspected to impart significant nutrient load to the ecosystem. Nevertheless, shrimp production is very less and susceptible to sever mortality. For this, the study aimed to understand the management practices and nutrient flux from some represented shrimp ponds in southwest coastal region of Bangladesh. A comprehensive study from 2002 to 2004 was done in an aquatic system comprising a river (Semi diurnal tidal system), a canal and 10 shrimp ponds along with wider area survey to verify the issues under a DFID-funded research project involving Nautilus Consultants Ltd. (UK). In the study area (Dumuria under the district Khulna) shrimp culture practices were mostly improved extensive. Shrimp were being produced without proper pond preparation, fry nursing, stocking or feed management due to lack of technical somehow and the risks involved with higher levels of investment. Consequently production rates were very low, averaging only 191 Kg/ha. Very high mortality of shrimp was reported in some of the farms using shallow ponds immediately after heavy rainfall. This may due to the sudden fluctuation of water pH and/or water temperature and salinity. The water quality in shrimp ponds during grow out period was in acceptable range except lower trend of DO and ammonia nitrogen. Year round water quality observations indicated that there were no major differences among the river, canal and pond water that might be due to the high water flushing rate (468%). The nutrient dynamics estimation indicates that 48.7 kg/ha/cycle of nitrogen and 28.96 kg/ha/cycle of phosphorus were added to the pond as an input mostly from fertilizer and feed. Among the inputs, only 33.4% of nitrogen and 6% of phosphorus were removed as harvested form. A large portion, 39.1% N and 92% P were remained in the sediments and unaccounted for. Average intake of

  14. Regional variability in dust-on-snow processes and impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Skiles, S. McKenzie; Painter, Thomas H.; Belnap, Jayne; Holland, Lacey; Reynolds, Richard; Goldstein, Harland; Lin, J.

    2015-01-01

    Dust deposition onto mountain snow cover in the Upper Colorado River Basin frequently occurs in the spring when wind speeds and dust emission peaks on the nearby Colorado Plateau. Dust loading has increased since the intensive settlement in the western USA in the mid 1880s. The effects of dust-on-snow have been well studied at Senator Beck Basin Study Area (SBBSA) in the San Juan Mountains, CO, the first high-altitude area of contact for predominantly southwesterly winds transporting dust from the southern Colorado Plateau. To capture variability in dust transport from the broader Colorado Plateau and dust deposition across a larger area of the Colorado River water sources, an additional study plot was established in 2009 on Grand Mesa, 150 km to the north of SBBSA in west central, CO. Here, we compare the 4-year (2010–2013) dust source, deposition, and radiative forcing records at Grand Mesa Study Plot (GMSP) and Swamp Angel Study Plot (SASP), SBBSA's subalpine study plot. The study plots have similar site elevations/environments and differ mainly in the amount of dust deposited and ensuing impacts. At SASP, end of year dust concentrations ranged from 0.83 mg g−1 to 4.80 mg g−1, and daily mean spring dust radiative forcing ranged from 50–65 W m−2, advancing melt by 24–49 days. At GMSP, which received 1.0 mg g−1 less dust per season on average, spring radiative forcings of 32–50 W m−2 advanced melt by 15–30 days. Remote sensing imagery showed that observed dust events were frequently associated with dust emission from the southern Colorado Plateau. Dust from these sources generally passed south of GMSP, and back trajectory footprints modelled for observed dust events were commonly more westerly and northerly for GMSP relative to SASP. These factors suggest that although the southern Colorado Plateau contains important dust sources, dust contributions from other dust sources contribute to dust loading in this region

  15. Global Impacts and Regional Actions: Preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizer, James L.; Foster, Josh; Lund, David

    2000-09-01

    It has been estimated that severe El Niño-related flooding and droughts in Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia resulted in more than 22 000 lives lost and in excess of $36 billion in damages during 1997-98. As one of the most severe events this century, the 1997-98 El Niño was unique not only in terms of physical magnitude, but also in terms of human response. This response was made possible by recent advances in climate-observing and forecasting systems, creation and dissemination of forecast information by institutions such as the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and individuals in climate-sensitive sectors willing to act on forecast information by incorporating it into their decision-making. The supporting link between the forecasts and their practical application was a product of efforts by several national and international organizations, and a primary focus of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Global Programs (NOAA/OGP).NOAA/OGP over the last decade has supported pilot projects in Latin America, the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, and Africa to improve transfer of forecast information to climate sensitive sectors, study linkages between climate and human health, and distribute climate information products in certain areas. Working with domestic and international partners, NOAA/OGP helped organize a total of 11 Climate Outlook Fora around the world during the 1997-98 El Niño. At each Outlook Forum, climatologists and meteorologists created regional, consensus-based, seasonal precipitation forecasts and representatives from climate-sensitive sectors discussed options for applying forecast information. Additional ongoing activities during 1997-98 included research programs focused on the social and economic impacts of climate change and the regional manifestations of global-scale climate variations and their effect on

  16. How strong ist the impact of changing topography of the East African Rift System on regional climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prömmel, Kerstin; Kaspar, Frank; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2010-05-01

    The evolution of the East African Rift System (EARS) leads to a topography change at the surface and the impact of this change on climate in this region can easily be analysed with climate models. In the present study both global and regional climate models are applied. The global climate model is the coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model ECHO-G and the regional climate model is the non-hydrostatic CLM, which is the climate version of the numerical weather prediction model of the German Meterorological Service. At the lateral boundaries the regional model is driven by the simulations performed with the global model. Different topographical situations representing possible conditions in the past, are simulated with the global and the regional climate model. One assumption affects only the highest peaks of the EARS south of the Turkana Channel by reducing them to 1200 m. The other assumptions affect a much larger area covering the whole of Southern and Eastern Africa. Over this region topography is reduced by 25%, 50%, 75% and 95%. These different topography reductions have an impact on circulation and therefore also on moisture transport. This leads to changes in the precipitation patterns over Africa. One strong effect is the decrease in orographic precipitation windward of the mountains. Wetter conditions can be found over the east coast of Africa, where moisture is transported from the Indian Ocean farther into the continent due to the lower barrier. Both global and regional models show similar results on the continental scale, however the results of the regional model are much more detailed due to the higher horizontal resolution (50 km) compared to the global model (~350 km).

  17. The Beaverhead impact structure, SW Montana and Idaho: Implications for the regional geology of the western U.S.

    SciTech Connect

    Fiske, P.S.; Hargaves, R.B.

    1994-03-17

    The Beaverhead impact structure in SW Montana and Idaho is an allochthonous fragment of a large impact structure ({approximately} 100 km diameter) that was transported some distance eastward during the Cretaceous Sevier orogeny. It is the first tectonic fragment of a large impact structure identified in the geologic record. The present evidence for impact consists of shatter cones, pseudotachylites, and planar deformation features in quartz. The age of the impact is not well constrained but is estimated to be Neoproterozoic to Cambrian (1000-500 Ma). The Beaverhead impact event must have created other features that may be preserved, elsewhere in western Montana and Idaho. These include proximal and distal ejecta (which may be misinterpreted as diamictites and/or tuff horizons) and other fragments of the crater floor containing shatter cones and pseudotachylite. A large circular gravity, magnetic and topographic anomaly, which could be the root of the impact structure, has been identified near Challis, Idaho. An enigmatic lithic tuff, identified in drill cores from the Challis area and an intraformational quartzite breccia in the Leaton Gulch area may be impact-related deposits, but no definitive evidence of shock metamorphism has been observed in these materials. The discovery of more pieces of the Beaverhead puzzle, as well as the recognition of other large impacts in the geologic record, are likely once the regional geologic community grows to accept the incidence of such events and becomes more familiar with the features of shock metamorphism in the field. To that end, the community of geologists in this area should integrate the Beaverhead structure into their research and teaching curriculum.

  18. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  19. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  20. Impacts of Global Climate Change and Emissions on Regional Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations over United States

    SciTech Connect

    Tagaris, Efthimios; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Leung, Lai R.; Woo, Jung-Hun; He, Shan; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G.

    2007-07-31

    Simulated future summers (i.e., 2049-2051) and annual (i.e., 2050) average regional O 3 and PM2.5 concentrations over North America are compared with historic (i.e., 2000-2002 summers and all of 2001) levels to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change on regional air quality. Meteorological inputs to the CMAQ chemical transport model are developed by downscaling the GISS Global Climate Model simulations using an MM5-based regional climate model. Future-year emissions for North America are developed by growing the US EPA CAIR inventory, Mexican and Canadian emissions and by using the IMAGE model with the IPCC A1B emissions scenario that is also used in projecting future climate. Reductions of more than 50% in NOX and SO2 emissions are forecast. The impacts of global climate change alone on regional air quality are small compared to impacts from emission control-related reductions in the US and Canada. The combined effect of climate change and emission reductions lead to a 20% decrease (regionally varying from -11% to -28% regionally) in the mean summer maximum daily 8-hr ozone levels (M8hO3) over the US, -8% over Canada and -10% over Northern Mexico. The mean annual PM2.5 concentrations are estimated to be 23% lower (varies from -9% to -32%) over the US, -7% and -15% over Western and Eastern Canada, respectively and -25% over Northern Mexico. Major reductions are expected in sulfate, nitrate and ammonium fractions of annually-averaged PM2.5 for all sub-regions. The limited reduction in organic carbon over the US and Northern Mexico and the higher concentrations over Canada suggests that organic carbon will be the dominant component of PM2.5 mass over most of the continent in the future. Regionally, the Eastern US benefits more than the rest of the regions from reductions in both M8hO3 and PM2.5, due to both spatial variations in the meteorological and emissions changes. Reduction in the higher M8hO3 concentrations is also estimated for all sub-regions

  1. Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I; Ferse, Sebastian C A; Kunzmann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation. PMID:26378910

  2. Land use and land cover change impacts on the regional climate of non-Amazonian South America: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salazar, Alvaro; Baldi, Germán; Hirota, Marina; Syktus, Jozef; McAlpine, Clive

    2015-05-01

    Land use and land cover change (LUCC) affects regional climate through modifications in the water balance and energy budget. These impacts are frequently expressed by: changes in the amount and frequency of precipitation and alteration of surface temperatures. In South America, most of the studies of the effects of LUCC on the local and regional climate have focused on the Amazon region (54 studies), whereas LUCC within non-Amazonian regions have been largely undermined regardless their potential importance in regulating the regional climate (19 studies). We estimated that 3.6 million km2 of the original natural vegetation cover in non-Amazonian South America were converted into other types of land use, which is about 4 times greater than the historical Amazon deforestation. Moreover, there is evidence showing that LUCC within such fairly neglected ecosystems cause significant reductions in precipitation and increases in surface temperatures, with occasional impacts affecting neighboring or remote areas. We explore the implications of these findings in the context of water security, climatic extremes and future research priorities.

  3. Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta, Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Baum, Gunilla; Januar, Hedi I.; Ferse, Sebastian C. A.; Kunzmann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation. PMID:26378910

  4. Regionalization in local public health systems: variation in rationale, implementation, and impact on public health preparedness.

    PubMed

    Stoto, Michael A

    2008-01-01

    Comparative case studies found that regionalization originated from a crisis or perceived need for a coordinated response, a need to build local public health capacity, or an effort to use federal preparedness funds more efficiently. Regions vary in terms of their congruence with regional structures for partner agencies, such as emergency management agencies, as well as hospital and health services markets and organizational structure. Some focus on building formal organizational relationships to coordinate and sometimes standardize preparedness and response activities or build regional capacity, while others focus on building informal professional networks. Whatever the approach, strong leadership and trust are required for effective planning, emergency response, and sustainability. This article suggests that regionalization improves emergency preparedness by allowing for more efficient use of resources and better coordination and demonstrated progress in terms of planning and coordination; regional capacity-building, training, and exercises; and development of professional networks. PMID:18763406

  5. The sustainable water-energy nexus: Life-cycle impacts and feasibility of regional energy and water supply scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dale, Alexander T.

    Water and energy are critical, interdependent, and regional resources, and effective planning and policies around which sources to use requires combining information on environmental impacts, cost, and availability. Questions around shifting energy and water sources towards more renewable options, as well as the potential role of natural gas from shale formations are under intense discussion. Decisions on these issues will be made in the shadow of climate change, which will both impact and be impacted by energy and water supplies. This work developed a model for calculating the life-cycle environmental impacts of regional energy and water supply scenarios (REWSS). The model was used to discuss future energy pathways in Pennsylvania, future electricity impacts in Brazil, and future water pathways in Arizona. To examine energy in Pennsylvania, this work also developed the first process-based life-cycle assessment (LCA) of shale gas, focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy consumption, and water consumption. This LCA confirmed results that shale gas is similar to conventional gas in GHG emissions, though potentially has a lower net energy due to a wide range of production rates for wells. Brazil's electricity-related impacts will rise as development continues. GHG emissions are shown to double by 2020 due to expanded natural gas (NG) and coal usage, with a rise of 390% by 2040 posssible with tropical hydropower reservoirs. While uncertainty around reservoir impacts is large, Brazil's low GHG emissions intensity and future carbon emissions targets are threatened by likely electricity scenarios. Pennsylvania's energy-related impacts are likely to hinge on whether NG is used as a replacement for coal, allowing GHG emissions to drop and then plateau at 93% of 2010 values; or as a transition fuel to expanded renewable energy sources, showing a steady decrease to 86% in 2035. Increased use of biofuels will dominate land occupation and may dominate water

  6. Predicted detection rates of regional-scale meteorite impacts on Mars with the InSight short-period seismometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teanby, N. A.

    2015-08-01

    In 2016 NASA will launch the InSight discovery-class mission, which aims to study the detailed internal structure of Mars for the first time. Short- and long-period seismometers form a major component of InSight's payload and have the potential to detect seismic waves generated by meteorite impacts. Large globally detectable impact events producing craters with diameters of ∼ 100 m have been investigated previously and are likely to be rare (Teanby, N.A., Wookey, J. [2011]. Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 186, 70-80), but smaller impacts producing craters in the 0.5-20 m range are more numerous and potentially occur sufficiently often to be detectable on regional scales (≲1000 km). At these distances, seismic waves will have significant high frequency content and will be suited to detection with InSight's short-period seismometer SEIS-SP. In this paper I estimate the current martian crater production function from observations of new craters (Malin, M.C. et al. [2006]. Science 314, 1573-1577; Daubar, I.J. et al. [2013]. Icarus 225, 506-516), model results (Williams, J.P., Pathare, A.V., Aharonson, O. [2014]. Icarus 235, 23-36), and standard isochrons (Hartmann, W.K. [2005]. Icarus 174, 294-320). These impact rates are combined with an empirical relation between impact energy, source-receiver distance, and peak seismogram amplitude, derived from a compilation of seismic recordings of terrestrial and lunar impacts, chemical explosions, and nuclear tests. The resulting peak seismogram amplitude scaling law contains significant uncertainty, but can be used to predict impact detection rates. I estimate that for a short-period instrument, with a noise spectral density of 10-8 ms-2 Hz-1/2 in the 1-16 Hz frequency band, approximately 0.1-30 regional impacts per year should be detectable with a nominal value of 1-3 impacts per year. Therefore, small regional impacts are likely to be a viable source of seismic energy for probing Mars' crustal and upper mantle structure. This is

  7. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; Ponnusamy, Paramasivam; Rasnayaka, Herath; Singh, Harbir

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  8. Long-term regional shifts in plant community composition are largely explained by local deer impact experiments.

    PubMed

    Frerker, Katie; Sabo, Autumn; Waller, Donald

    2014-01-01

    The fact that herbivores and predators exert top-down effects to alter community composition and dynamics at lower trophic levels is no longer controversial, yet we still lack evidence of the full nature, extent, and longer-term effects of these impacts. Here, we use results from a set of replicated experiments on the local impacts of white-tailed deer to evaluate the extent to which such impacts could account for half-century shifts in forest plant communities across the upper Midwest, USA. We measured species' responses to deer at four sites using 10-20 year-old deer exclosures. Among common species, eight were more abundant outside the exclosures, seven were commoner inside, and 16 had similar abundances in- and outside. Deer herbivory greatly increased the abundance of ferns and graminoids and doubled the abundance of exotic plants. In contrast, deer greatly reduced tree regeneration, shrub cover (100-200 fold in two species), plant height, plant reproduction, and the abundance of forbs. None of 36 focal species increased in reproduction or grew taller in the presence of deer, contrary to expectations. We compared these results to data on 50-year regional shifts in species abundances across 62 sites. The effects of herbivory by white-tailed deer accurately account for many of the long-term regional shifts observed in species' abundances (R2 = 0.41). These results support the conjecture that deer impacts have driven many of the regional shifts in forest understory cover and composition observed in recent decades. Our ability to link results from shorter-term, local experiments to regional long-term studies of ecological change strengthens the inferences we can draw from both approaches. PMID:25551827

  9. East Asian Studies of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC): An Overview

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Zhanqing; Li, C.; Chen, H.; Tsay, S. C.; Holben, B. N.; Huang, J.; Li, B.; Maring, H.; Qian, Yun; Shi, Guangyu; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zhuang, G.

    2011-02-01

    As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas. Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC). The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF10 China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: an International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE). The former two are US-China collaborative projects and the latter is a part of the China’s National Basic Research program (or often referred to as “973 project”). Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies. The wealth of general and specialized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system. Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc. In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.

  10. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  11. EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY OVER THE UNITED STATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation summarizes recent results produced in support of the assessment of climate change impacts on ozone and particulate matter over the continental United States. Preliminary findings of climate scenario, meteorologically-drive emissions and air quality simulation a...

  12. Cotton production potential and water conservation impact using the regional irrigation demand model of northern Texas

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Revised irrigation demands are calculated for the 21 northernmost counties in Texas, identified as Panhandle Region (also known as Region A), using the TAMA (Texas A&M–Amarillo) agricultural water use demand estimation model. Year 2000 demands are presented using the existing mixture of crops, aver...

  13. The Impact of Technology in the Schools of the Mohawk Regional Information Center Area. Technical Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mann, Dale; Shakeshaft, Charol

    This study was commissioned by participating school districts served by the Mohawk Regional Information Center (New York) to document the differences that computer-related technology has made for the region's students, teachers, and schools. Elementary and secondary school teachers (n=4,041), students (n=1,722), and administrators (n=225) in 159…

  14. 77 FR 15450 - Tier 1 Environmental Impact Statement for the Chicago, Illinois, to Omaha, Nebraska, Regional...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-15

    ... passenger rail system; introduction of modern, high-speed trains operating at speeds up to 110 mph; and..., Nebraska, Regional Passenger Rail System AGENCY: Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), U.S. Department of... passenger rail improvements for the Chicago, Illinois to Omaha, Nebraska regional passenger rail system...

  15. Assessing the Impact of Higher Education on Regional Development: Using a Realist Approach for Policy Enhancement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Higher Education Management and Policy, 2005

    2005-01-01

    Higher Education is widely seen as a crucial ingredient in the regional economic development mix, and as fundamental to the development of the knowledge economy (Barclays, 2002). Indeed the Higher Education Funding Council for England has issued broad guidelines for benchmarking good practice in assessing regional development contribution of a…

  16. Large-scale atmospheric response to eastern Mediterranean summer-autumn SST anomalies and the associated regional impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Serrano, J.; Polo, I.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.; Losada, T.

    2013-11-01

    Since the Mediterranean Sea is halfway between subtropical and middle latitudes, and it represents a marginal oceanic region, research has tended to focus on how large-scale modes of atmospheric variability modulate its surface temperature. Conversely, the present study examines the potential influence of the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. In particular, this work explores the large-scale changes in the global circulation forced/influenced by the eastern Mediterranean summer-autumn SST pattern. To isolate the atmospheric response, AGCM sensitivity experiments with prescribed SST over the Mediterranean Sea and climatology elsewhere are analysed. Observational diagnostics upon the period used to define the boundary conditions (1979-2002) are also interpreted. Our results support the hypothesis of an atmospheric pattern initiated in the Mediterranean basin, pointing out both a local baroclinic response and a barotropic circumglobal anomaly. This atmospheric teleconnection pattern projects onto a hemispheric wave-like structure, reflecting the waveguide effect of the westerly jets. Results suggest, thereby, that the recurrent summer-autumn circumglobal teleconnection pattern can be excited locally by changes in the atmosphere over the Mediterranean region. A linear behaviour is found upon a regional impact over northeastern Africa. The remote impacts present however a nonlinear signature: anomalous warm conditions influencing on northern Europe and Euro-Asia, whereas anomalous cold conditions impacting more on the North Pacific basin. Limitations in our model setup are also discussed.

  17. Offshore wind farms in the southwestern Baltic Sea: A model study of regional impacts on oxygen conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janßen, Holger; Schröder, Toni; Zettler, Michael L.; Pollehne, Falk

    2015-01-01

    Offshore wind farm piles are secondary hard substrate and hence an attractive colonization surface for many species. Especially in marine areas dominated by soft sediments, wind farms may lead to a significant increase in biomass by enlarging habitats from benthos layers into the pelagic column. A concomitant effect is the increase in oxygen consumption through respiration of living biomass and especially through degradation of dead biomass, mainly Mytilus edulis. This leads to impacts on the regional oxygen budget, and local anoxia in the direct vicinity of wind farm piles has been documented in scientific literature. The present study investigates the regional impact of multiple wind farms on oxygen concentration levels and on the appearance of hypoxia. A five-year data sampling with a steel cylinder and fouling plates delivered data for a 3D ecosystem model. The results show that wind farms do not lead to a significant decrease in oxygen on the mesoscale level. But additional anoxia may occur locally, which may lead to the release of hydrogen sulfide on microscale level and potential subsequent regional impacts.

  18. Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

    PubMed

    Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

    2013-11-15

    Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate. PMID:23995509

  19. Regional economic impacts of natural hazards - the case of the 2005 Alpine flood event in Tyrol (Austria)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfurtscheller, C.

    2014-02-01

    Natural hazards have substantial impacts on economies on all scales. While the measurement of direct effects seems manageable, less is known about the dimensions of economic effects, especially on local and regional scales. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria), which triggered about 264 million Euros in direct losses, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the drivers of economic effects. The main aim of the study was to assess the regional economic impacts on the gross regional product by the 2005 floods without macro-economic modelling techniques using bottom-up data. Using basic quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. Based on this empirical evidence, we estimated the decline in gross regional product in the study area at NUTS-3 level. We observed that disrupted traffic networks, for instance, had very negative effects on the regional economy. In addition, we identified economic winners of severe hazard impacts and estimated the amount of increasing economic flows (economic stimuli), based on compensation payments. Finally, the net effect can be estimated balancing the negative and positive effects of the flood event. The methods and results of this study can help to improve ex post loss estimations, and with it, ex ante methods for the cost efficiency of risk reduction measures, e.g. cost-benefit analysis. However, much effort is needed to improve the data basis on economic effects measured as a change in economic flows.

  20. [Impact and state of the art of regional healthcare planning and management guidelines in a local health authority of the Lazio region (Italy)].

    PubMed

    Priori, Maria Rosaria; Barbato, Angelo

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of health care planning and management guidelines, elaborated by the Lazio regional healthcare authority, on the organizational structure and operational processes of local health authorities and, more specifically, of the Roma C local health authority. The guidelines are made up of three volumes and mainly describe an operational model, rather than being a set of standard references aimed at standardizing the quality of information low systems in local healthcare authorities. The guidelines are essentially a didactic text, and were elaborated by a consulting firm, Engineering Management Consulting, on behalf of the Lazio regional authority. In the first section, the main concepts are defined, while in subsequent sections, detailed models regarding the specific subject matter are described. Although the guidelines represent a useful tool in the process of converting local health authorities of the Lazio region into "business" organizations, so far they have been of use only in the first phase of assessment of different organizational models for healthcare planning and management. There is still a long way ahead towards defining standard procedures and references for describing activities and costs. This is what should hopefully be achieved briefly and which will necessarily require the introduction of a data warehouse and business intelligence software that will allow monitoring of activities and making short term predictions through the use balanced scorecards and data mining. PMID:18084348

  1. Lifestyle habits of 12,800 IVF patients: Prevalence of negative lifestyle behaviors, and impact of region and insurance coverage.

    PubMed

    Domar, Alice D; Rooney, Kristin L; Milstein, Melissa; Conboy, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    Lifestyle habits of women undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment are largely unknown. Therefore, this prospective study aimed to determine the prevalence of negative lifestyle habits in women undergoing IVF and determine if habits are related to the region in the United States and/or by mandated insurance coverage. A total of 12,811 ART patients were surveyed in infertility clinics throughout the US. They took an online questionnaire added to the patient portal of electronic medical record eIVF, a fertility-specific electronic health record. Of the women surveyed, 17-23% of patients drank alcohol, 2-7% smoked, 62-68% drank caffeine, < 1% used recreational drugs, and 47-62% exercised during their IVF treatment. There were a few statistically significant regional differences in health habits (p < 0.001) but there were no differences in health habits between women who resided in a state with mandated insurance coverage versus those without insurance coverage. This is the first prospective assessment of lifestyle habits across regions in the USA and by insurance coverage. The study concluded that women undergoing IVF engage in behaviors which may negatively impact their cycle. Women in certain parts of the US had significantly worse habits than other regions, but the availability of mandated insurance coverage did not impact health habits. PMID:26414657

  2. Regional Impact on Pollution Event in the Upper Troposphere during CARIBIC Flights between South China and the Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lai, S. C.; Baker, A. R.; Schuck, T. J.; van Velthoven, P.; Oram, D. E.; Zahn, A.; Hermann, M.; Weigelt, A.; Slemr, S.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M.

    2010-05-01

    The research project CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrumented Container, phase II) is designed to conduct regular, long-term and detailed observations of the free troposphere and UT/LS regions where passenger aircraft happen to cruise. A fully-automated measurement container (1.5 tons) was equipped onboard an Airbus 340-600 operated by Lufthansa Airlines during regular passenger flights to conduct real time trace gas and aerosol measurements and to collect aerosol and air samples on a near monthly basis. During May 2005 - March 2008, CARIBIC observations have been performed along the flight tracks of Frankfurt-Guangzhou-Manila. Data have been collected in the upper troposphere during a total of 81 flights over the region between South China and the Philippines. Carbon monoxide was used an indicator to identify the pollution events and to access the regional impacts of fossil fuel burning and biomass/biofuel burning on upper tropospheric air. Five regions, i.e. Northeast Asia, South China, Indochina Peninsula, India and Indonesia/Philippines, are identified as the major source regions to be related to the observed pollution events. The characteristics of the events from these regions are investigated. The contributions of different source categories are also estimated.

  3. Freshening of the South Indian Ocean during the Argo period: observations, causes, and impact on regional sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llovel, William; Lee, Tong

    2015-04-01

    Steric sea level change has been identified as one of the major contributors to the regional sea level changes. This contribution varies in space and time. Temperature (thermosteric) contribution to sea level has been found to be generally more important than salinity (halosteric) effect. Based on temperature and salinity data from Argo floats during 2005-2013 and coincident sea level measurements from satellite altimetry, we found that the central-eastern part of the South Indian Ocean stood out in the entire world ocean as a region that had a more dominant halosteric contribution to sea level change. The conspicuously large halosteric contribution was associated with a freshening in the upper few hundred meters. Neither local atmospheric forcing nor halosteric signal transmitted from the Pacific can explain this freshening. An observed strengthening of the Indonesian throughflow since early 2007 and the enhanced precipitation in the Indonesian Seas inferred from various precipitation estimates compounded by strong tidal mixing are the likely causes of the freshening of the South Indian Ocean. The findings also have implications to the potential influence of regional water cycle and ocean currents in the maritime Continent region to sea level changes in the South Indian Ocean prior to the Argo era and sea level projection in the future in response to climate change. Sustained measurements of sea surface salinity from satellites will significantly enhance our capability to study the impact of regional water cycle in the Maritime Continent region to related changes in the marginal seas and the Indian Ocean.

  4. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A.; Meyer, Markus A.

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape

  5. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

    PubMed

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

  6. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  7. Impact of the 1997-1998 El-Nino of Regional Hydrology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel

    1998-01-01

    The 1997-1998 El-Nino brought with it a range of severe local-regional hydrological phenomena. Record high temperatures and extremely dry soil conditions in Texas is an example of this regional effect. The El-Nino and La-Nina change the continental weather patterns considerably. However, connections between continental weather anomalies and regional or local anomalies have not been established to a high degree of confidence. There are several unique features of the recent El-Nino and La-Nina. Due to the recognition of the present El-Nino well in advance, there have been several coupled model studies on global and regional scales. Secondly, there is a near real-time monitoring of the situation using data from satellite sensors, namely, SeaWIFS, TOVS, AVHRR and GOES. Both observations and modeling characterize the large scale features of this El-Nino fairly well. However the connection to the local and regional hydrological phenomenon still needs to be made. This paper will use satellite observations and analysis data to establish a relation between local hydrology and large scale weather patterns. This will be the first step in using satellite data to perform regional hydrological simulations of surface temperature and soil moisture.

  8. Developing a climatological / hydrological baseline for climate change impact assessment in a remote mountain region - an example from Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salzmann, N.; Huggel, C.; Calanca, P.; Diaz, A.; Jonas, T.; Konzelmann, T.; Lagos, P.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.; Zappa, M.

    2009-04-01

    Changes in the availability of fresh water caused by climatic changes will become a major issue in the coming years and decades. In this context, regions presently depending on water from retreating mountain glaciers are particularly vulnerable. In many parts of the Andes for example, people already suffer from the impacts of reduced glacier run off. Therefore, the development and implementation of adequate adaptation measures is an urgent need. To better understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Andean region, a new research program (PACC - Programa de Adaptación al Cambio Climático en el Perú) between Peru and Switzerland has recently been launched by SDC (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation). As a first step, a scientific baseline relative to climatology, hydrology, agriculture and natural disasters will be developed on a regional scale for the Departments of Cusco and Apurimac in close cooperation with partners from Universities and governmental institutions as well as NGOs in Peru. A reliable data baseline is a must for the development of adaptation measures that can effectively cope with the risks induced by climate change. The realization of this task in remote mountain regions, where observational data are generally sparse, however, is challenging. Temporal and spatial gaps must be filled using indirect methods such as re-analyses, remote sensing and interpolation techniques. For future scenarios, the use of climate model output along with statistical and dynamical downscaling is indicated. This contribution will present and discuss approaches and possible concepts to tackle the challenges in a Peruvian context. In addition, first experiences will be reported particularly on cross-disciplinary issues that naturally emerge from the integrative perspective needed in climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies.

  9. Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on

  10. Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.

    2015-12-01

    Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on

  11. The Impact of New Area Vocational Schools on the Appalachian Region.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanders, George; Dennis, William A.

    This brief evaluation of area vocational schools and programs and their impact on students and communities of Appalachia notes: (1) 20 to 30 percent of Appalachian high school students are being reached by current programs, (2) Enrollment in individual programs has increased from 50 to several hundred percent, (3) The dropout rate for most schools…

  12. Impact of temperatures to Hessian Fly resistance of selected wheat cultivars in the Great Plains Region

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Changes in temperature can result in fundamental changes in plant physiology. This study investigated the impact of different temperatures from 14 to 26 °C on the resistance or susceptibility to the Hessian fly, Mayetiola destructor, of selected wheat cultivars that are either currently popular in ...

  13. Creating a Model for High Impact Practices at a Large, Regional, Comprehensive University: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McMahan, Shari

    2008-01-01

    Student engagement in High Impact Practices (HIPs) has been gaining the attention of higher education leaders and researchers. When students are actively engaged in the learning process they report greater gains in learning and personal development. Students involved in HIPs show better retention, higher GPA and succeed in graduating college in a…

  14. A Topographic Image Map of the Sabrina Valles Region Including Information on Large Martian Impact Craters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gehrke, S.; Köhring, R.; Barlow, N. G.; Gwinner, K.; Scholten, F.; Lehmann, H.; Albertz, J.

    2007-03-01

    The Catalog of Large Martian Impact Craters provides detailed information on 42,283 craters >5 km; it is planned to be integrated in the Topographic Image Map Mars 1:200,000 series. Such an update is shown in a special target map, based on HRSC data.

  15. FURTHER CASE STUDIES ON THE IMPACT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ON REGIONAL OZONE AND HAZE DISTRIBUTIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report is a continuation of an earlier effort to study the impact of mesoscale convective precipitation systems upon distributions of aerosol and photochemical oxidant pollutants in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Analyses of surface visibility and ozone data revealed a d...

  16. REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE IMPACTS ON STREAM CHANNEL HABITAT IN THE MIDDLE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many human land uses and land cover modifications (e.g., logging, grazing, roads) tend to increase erosion, leading to an increase in fine sediment supplied to streams and potentially degrading aquatic habitat for benthic organisms. This study evaluated potential human impacts o...

  17. Interrupting Malaria Transmission: Quantifying the Impact of Interventions in Regions of Low to Moderate Transmission

    PubMed Central

    Gatton, Michelle L.; Cheng, Qin

    2010-01-01

    Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission. PMID:21152042

  18. Impact of climate aggregation over different scales on regional NPP modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhnert, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    Model input data aggregation methods and data aggregation across spatial scales affect various model outputs, e.g. Net Primary Productivity (NPP). The scale at which data is collected is of great importance. In ecosystem modelling studies we often see soil and climate data collected at coarse scale being used in models to predict ecosystem responses e.g. NPP in dependency of these parameters at finer scale. Outputs of these models are impacted by the way the data is aggregated or dis-aggregated to the spatial scale. Up to know there are very few studies which quantified the impact of scaling on the simulation results. In this study, we quantify the impact of climate data aggregation using five different resolutions, to simulate NPP by 11 different crop and biogeochemical models for the same study area. The aggregation effect is investigated for wheat and maize cropping systems in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The simulation results are analysed for NPP averaged over growing seasons of a 30 year period at different spatial resolutions as well as for annual NPP during growing season. While there is only a minor impact of input data aggregation on NPP on 30 year averages, the annual data show differences in NPP up to 9.4 % and 13.6 % between the different resolutions for wheat and maize, respectively. The scale effect differ between the models and shows higher impacts for extreme years. This is tested by selecting years with extreme dry conditions based on a drought index, which showed stronger scale effects of up to 12.8 % and 15.5 % for wheat and maize, respectively.

  19. Assessing planetary and regional nitrogen boundaries related to food security and adverse environmental impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vries, Wim; Kros, Hans; Kroeze, Carolien; Seitzinger, Sybil

    2014-05-01

    In this presentation, we first discuss the concept of -, governance interest in- and criticism on planetary boundaries, specifically with respect to the nitrogen (N) cycle. We then systematically evaluate the criticism and argue that planetary N boundaries need to include both the benefits and adverse impacts of reactive N (Nr) and the spatial variability of Nr impacts, in terms of shortage and surplus, being main arguments for not deriving such boundaries. Next, we present an holistic approach for an updated planetary N boundary by considering the need to: (i) avoid adverse impacts of elevated Nr emissions to water, air and soils, and (ii) feed the world population in an adequate way. The derivation of a planetary N boundary, in terms of anthropogenic fixation of di-nitrogen (N2) by growing legumes and production of N fertilizer, is illustrated by (i) identification of multiple threat N indicators and setting critical limits for them, (ii) back calculating critical N losses from critical limits for N indicators, while accounting for the spatial variability of indicators and their exceedance and (iii) back calculating critical N fixation rates from critical N losses. The derivation of the needed planetary N fixation is assessed from the global population, the recommended dietary N consumption per capita and the N use efficiency in the complete chain from N fixation to N consumption. Results of example applications show that the previously suggested planetary N boundary of 25% of the current value is too low in view of needed N fixation and also unnecessary in view of most environmental impacts. We also illustrate the impacts of changes in the N use efficiency on planetary boundaries in terms of critical N fixation rates.

  20. Intra and inter-continental aerosol transport and local and regional impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charles, Leona Ann Marie

    Under the Clean Air Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to establish a nationally uniform air quality index for the reporting of air quality. In 1976, the EPA established this index, then called the Pollutant Standards Index, for use by state and local communities across the country. The Index provides information on pollutant concentrations for ground-level ozone, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. On July 18, 1997, the EPA revised the ozone and particulate matter standards, in light of a comprehensive review of new scientific evidence including refined fine particulate matter standards.* Any program which is designed to improve air quality must devise tools in which emissions, meteorology, air chemistry and transport are understood. Clearly, the complexity of this task requires measurements at both regional and mesoscale ranges, as well as on a continental scale to investigate long range transport. Unfortunately, determination of fine particulate matter (PM) concentrations is particularly difficult since an accurate measurement of PM2.5 relies on costly equipment which cannot provide the complete transport story and the mixing and dispersion of particulate matter is much more complex than that for trace gases. Besides the need for accurate measurements as a way of documenting air quality standards, the EPA is required in the near future to implement a 24 hour Air Quality Forecast. Current forecast tools are usually based on emission inventories and meteorological forecasts, but significant work is being done in trying to assimilate both ground measurements as well as satellite measurements into these schemes. Clearly, the 'Holy Grail' would be the capability of assimilating full 3D (+ time) measurements. However, since satellite measurements are primarily passive, only total air column properties such as aerosol optical depth can be retrieved. In particular, it is not possible to determine the

  1. Statistical Analysis of the Impacts of Regional Transportation on the Air Quality in Beijing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Zhongwen; Zhang, Huiling; Tong, Lei; Xiao, Hang

    2016-04-01

    From October to December 2015, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region had experienced several severe haze events. In order to assess the effects of the regional transportation on the air quality in Beijing, the air monitoring data (PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO) from that period published by Chinese National Environmental Monitoring Center (CNEMC) was collected and analyzed with various statistical models. The cities within BTH area were clustered into three groups according to the geographical conditions, while the air pollutant concentrations of cities within a group sharing similar variation trends. The Granger causality test results indicate that significant causal relationships exist between the air pollutant data of Beijing and its surrounding cities (Baoding, Chengde, Tianjin and Zhangjiakou) for the reference period. Then, linear regression models were constructed to capture the interdependency among the multiple time series. It shows that the observed air pollutant concentrations in Beijing were well consistent with the model-fitted results. More importantly, further analysis suggests that the air pollutants in Beijing were strongly affected by regional transportation, as the local sources only contributed 17.88%, 27.12%, 14.63% and 31.36% of PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO concentrations, respectively. And the major foreign source for Beijing was from Southwest (Baoding) direction, account for more than 42% of all these air pollutants. Thus, by combining various statistical models, it may not only be able to quickly predict the air qualities of any cities on a regional scale, but also to evaluate the local and regional source contributions for a particular city. Key words: regional transportation, air pollution, Granger causality test, statistical models

  2. Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Daewel, Ute; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Bopp, Laurent; Butenschon, Momme; Fach, Bettina A.; Harle, James; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change

  3. Impact of source region on the δ18O signal in snow: A case study from Mount Wrangell Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Kent; Field, Robert; Benson, Carl

    2016-04-01

    The stable isotopic composition of water in ice cores is an important source of information on past climate variability. At its simplest level, the underlying assumption is that there is an empirical relationship between the normalized difference in the concentration for these stable isotopes and a specified local temperature at the ice core site. There are however non-local processes, such as a change in source region or a change in the atmospheric pathway, that can impact the stable isotope signal thereby complicating its use as a proxy for temperature. Here we investigate the importance of these non-local processes through the analysis of the synoptic-scale circulation during a snowfall event at the summit of Mount Wrangell, in south-central Alaska just to the east of the Gulf of Alaska. During this event there was, over a one-day period in which the local temperature was approximately constant, a change in δ18O that exceeded half that normally seen to occur between summer and winter in the region. As we shall show, this arose from a change in the source region, from the sub-tropical eastern Pacific to northeastern Asia for the snow that fell on Mount Wrangell during the event. The recognition that non-local processes play a role in the stable isotope record from the Gulf of Alaska region suggests that these records, in addition to a local temperature signal, also contain signals of large-scale modes of climate variability that impact the North Pacific region such as the Pacific North America teleconnection and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation.

  4. The Impact of Region, Nitrogen Use Efficiency, and Grower Incentives on Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Canola (Brassica napus) Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammac, W. A.; Pan, W.; Koenig, R. T.; McCracken, V.

    2012-12-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has mandated through the second renewable fuel standard (RFS2) that biodiesel meet a minimum threshold requirement (50% reduction) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction compared to fossil diesel. This designation is determined by life cycle assessment (LCA) and carries with it potential for monetary incentives for biodiesel feedstock growers (Biomass Crop Assistance Program) and biodiesel processors (Renewable Identification Numbers). A national LCA was carried out for canola (Brassica napus) biodiesel feedstock by the EPA and it did meet the minimum threshold requirement. However, EPA's national LCA does not provide insight into regional variation in GHG mitigation. The authors propose for full GHG reduction potential of biofuels to be realized, LCA results must have regional specificity and should inform incentives for growers and processors on a regional basis. The objectives of this work were to determine (1) variation in biofuel feedstock production related GHG emissions between three agroecological zones (AEZs) in eastern Washington State (2) the impact of nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) on GHG mitigation potential for each AEZ and (3) the impact of incentives on adoption of oilseed production. Results from objective (1) revealed there is wide variability in range for GHG estimates both across and within AEZs based on variation in farming practices and environment. It is expected that results for objective (2) will show further GHG mitigation potential due to minimizing N use and therefore fertilizer transport and soil related GHG emission while potentially increasing biodiesel production per hectare. Regional based incentives may allow more timely achievement of goals for bio-based fuels production. Additionally, incentives may further increase GHG offsetting by promoting nitrogen conserving best management practices implementation. This research highlights the need for regional assessment/incentive based

  5. Discovery of the largest impact crater field on Earth in the Gilf Kebir region, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paillou, Philippe; El Barkooky, Ahmed; Barakat, Aly; Malezieux, Jean-Marie; Reynard, Bruno; Dejax, Jean; Heggy, Essam

    2004-12-01

    Using orbital imaging radar, we have detected a large number of circular structures in the southwestern Egyptian desert, covering more than 4500 km 2 close to the Gilf Kebir plateau in sandstones of Upper Cretaceous. Fieldwork confirmed that it is a new impact crater field: 13 craters from 20 m to 1 km in diameter were studied. The impact origin is confirmed by the observation of shock-related structures, such as shatter cones and planar fractures in quartz grains of breccia. Considering the extension of the crater field, it was possibly created by several meteorites that broke up when entering the atmosphere. To cite this article: P. Paillou et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).

  6. Wave like signatures in aerosol optical depth and associated radiative impacts over the central Himalayan region

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, K. K.; Phanikumar, D. V.; Kumar, K.  Niranjan; Reddy, Kishore; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Newsom, Rob K.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2015-10-01

    In this study, we present a case study on 16 October 2011 to show the first observational evidence of the influence of short period gravity waves in aerosol transport during daytime over the central Himalayan region. The Doppler lidar data has been utilized to address the daytime boundary layer evolution and related aerosol dynamics over the site. Mixing layer height is estimated by wavelet covariance transform method and found to be ~ 0.7 km, AGL. Aerosol optical depth observations during daytime revealed an asymmetry showing clear enhancement during afternoon hours as compared to forenoon. Interestingly, Fourier and wavelet analysis of vertical velocity and attenuated backscatter showed similar 50-90 min short period gravity wave signatures during afternoon hours. Moreover, our observations showed that gravity waves are dominant within the boundary layer implying that the daytime boundary layer dynamics is playing a vital role in transporting the aerosols from surface to the top of the boundary layer. Similar modulations are also evident in surface parameters like temperature, relative humidity and wind speed indicating these waves are associated with the dynamical aspects over Himalayan region. Finally, time evolution of range-23 height indicator snapshots during daytime showed strong upward velocities especially during afternoon hours implying that convective processes through short period gravity waves plays a significant role in transporting aerosols from the nearby valley region to boundary layer top over the site. These observations also establish the importance of wave induced daytime convective boundary layer dynamics in the lower Himalayan region.

  7. IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projectio...

  8. 75 FR 8986 - Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Campo Regional Landfill...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-26

    ... landfill. Supporting developments include the site entrance facilities, screening berms, utilities, surface... the project proposes to use alternative landfill design and cover, it requires a site-specific... Regional Landfill Project on the Campo Indian Reservation, San Diego County, CA AGENCY: Bureau of...

  9. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

    PubMed

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-08-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras. PMID:20335215

  10. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness

    PubMed Central

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-01-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8°C scenario, but to decrease significantly (−9.4%) under the ‘business as usual’ A1FI/+4.0°C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras. PMID:20335215

  11. Examining the Impact of Regional-Scale Air Quality Regulations on Human Health Outcomes

    EPA Science Inventory

    The NOx State Implementation Plan Call was issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to reduce the emissions of nitrogen oxides from the electric power sector to curtail the regional transport of the secondarily-formed pollutant, ozone. As emission control actions often...

  12. 76 FR 43994 - Termination of the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Proposed Regional Watershed...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-22

    ... Prepare an EIS was published in the Federal Register on Friday, March 20, 2009 (74 FR 11920), with subsequent amended announcements on May 8, 2009 (74 FR 21665) and August 11, 2009 (74 FR 40171). FOR FURTHER... Proposed Regional Watershed Supply Project in Wyoming and Colorado AGENCY: Department of the Army,...

  13. Regional air quality impacts of increased natural gas production and use in Texas.

    PubMed

    Pacsi, Adam P; Alhajeri, Nawaf S; Zavala-Araiza, Daniel; Webster, Mort D; Allen, David T

    2013-04-01

    Natural gas use in electricity generation in Texas was estimated, for gas prices ranging from $1.89 to $7.74 per MMBTU, using an optimal power flow model. Hourly estimates of electricity generation, for individual electricity generation units, from the model were used to estimate spatially resolved hourly emissions from electricity generation. Emissions from natural gas production activities in the Barnett Shale region were also estimated, with emissions scaled up or down to match demand in electricity generation as natural gas prices changed. As natural gas use increased, emissions decreased from electricity generation and increased from natural gas production. Overall, NOx and SO2 emissions decreased, while VOC emissions increased as natural gas use increased. To assess the effects of these changes in emissions on ozone and particulate matter concentrations, spatially and temporally resolved emissions were used in a month-long photochemical modeling episode. Over the month-long photochemical modeling episode, decreases in natural gas prices typical of those experienced from 2006 to 2012 led to net regional decreases in ozone (0.2-0.7 ppb) and fine particulate matter (PM) (0.1-0.7 μg/m(3)). Changes in PM were predominantly due to changes in regional PM sulfate formation. Changes in regional PM and ozone formation are primarily due to decreases in emissions from electricity generation. Increases in emissions from increased natural gas production were offset by decreasing emissions from electricity generation for all the scenarios considered. PMID:23441728

  14. MODELING THE IMPACT OF OZONE X DROUGHT INTERACTIONS ON REGIONAL CROP YIELDS (JOURNAL VERSION)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The influence of soil moisture stress on crop sensitivity to O3 was evaluated for corn, cotton, soybean, and wheat grown in the United States by using yield forecasting models to estimate the influence of soil moisture deficits on regional yield and a previously developed model t...

  15. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study analyzes periodic variations in the climate of the mid-Atlantic Region over the last 100 years and uses general circulation models (GCMs) to project major climate trends for the next hundred years. Historical data include the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for th...

  16. Climate change impacts on soil erosion in the Great Lakes Region

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Quantifying changes in potential soil erosion under projections of changing climate is important for the sustainable management of land resources, especially for regions dominated by agricultural land use, as soil loss estimates will be helpful in identifying areas susceptible to erosion, targeting ...

  17. A Preliminary Synthesis of Modeled Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional Ozone Concentrations

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential sensitivity of U.S. regional ozone (O3) concentrations to global climate change (c. 2050). This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U....

  18. The impact of climate change on soil erosion in Great Lakes Region

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Quantifying changes in potential soil erosion under projections of changing climate is important for the sustainable management of land resources, especially for regions dominated by agricultural land use. One of the expected changes to climate in the future is an increase in the frequency and inten...

  19. The impact of Damaging Hydro Geological events on people in a Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrucci, O.; Pasqua, A. A.

    2012-04-01

    Bad weather periods are a source of multiple hazards, because they can trigger several types of damaging phenomena which may cause different types of impacts on several natural and manmade elements in a wide range of circumstances. The whole of all the phenomena triggered by bad weather periods have been defined as Damaging Hydro Geological Events (DHE). Phenomena which occur during DHEs can be roughly sorted in some main groups: landslides, floods, erosion processes and sea storms. Each type of phenomenon is characterized by a proper dynamic and, according to the social and economic framework in which it develops, can cause different impacts. Despite during bad weather periods all these phenomena occur at the same time (or in a short while), often strongly amplifying damage and hinting emergency management actions, the studies available in literature tend to analyse each type of phenomenon (and its impact) separately, thus supplying a fragmentary framework of the effects. In the present work, basing on a dataset concerning effects of DHEs in Calabria (southern Italy), a classification of the effects on people affected by the different types of triggered phenomena is attempted. The results is a classification of main circumstances during which the different types of phenomenon triggered can hit people. This kind of result can be useful in education programs for people living in risk prone areas, in order promote more conscious behaviours during DHEs and to avoid unnecessary risk-taking behaviour.

  20. Mediterranean storms and impact analysis on people of Calabria region (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrucci, O.; Polemio, M.; Pasqua, A. A.

    2010-09-01

    Mediterranean storms are a source of multiple hazards because they can trigger several types of damaging phenomena which may cause different types of impacts on a complex of natural and manmade elements in an incredible wide range of circumstances. Phenomena which occur during and after Mediterranean storms can be roughly sorted in some main groups: landslides, floods, erosion processes and sea storms. Each type of phenomenon is characterized by a proper dynamic and, according to the social and economical framework in which develops, it can cause different impacts. Despite during Mediterranean storms all these phenomena occur at the same time (or in a short while), often strongly amplifying damage and hinting emergency management, studies available in literature tend to analyze each type of phenomenon (and its impact) separately, supplying a fragmentary framework of effects. In the present work, basing on a 40-year dataset concerning effects of storms in Calabria (southern Italy), a classification of effects on people affected by the different types of phenomena triggered by rainfall is carried out. The results is a schematization of main circumstances during which the different types of phenomenon triggered by storms can hit, in some way, people, and the amount of damage reported. This kind of result can be useful in education programs for people living in risk prone areas, in order promote more conscious life-style and to avoid unnecessary risk-taking behavior.

  1. Martian Polar Region Impact Craters: Geometric Properties From Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garvin, J. B.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Frawley, J. J.; Matias, A.

    1998-01-01

    The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) instrument onboard the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft has so far observed approximately 100 impact landforms in the north polar latitudes (>60 degrees N) of Mars. Correlation of the topography with Viking Orbiter images indicate that many of these are near-center profiles, and for some of the most northern craters, multiple data passes have been acquired. The northern high latitudes of Mars may contain substantial ground ice and be topped with seasonal frost (largely CO2 with some water), forming each winter. We have analyzed various diagnostic crater topologic parameters for this high-latitude crater population with the objective of characterizing impact features in north polar terrains, and we explore whether there is evidence of interaction with ground ice, frost, dune movement, or other polar processes. We find that there are substantial topographic variations from the characteristics of midlatitude craters in the polar craters that are not readily apparent from prior images. The transition from small simple craters to large complex craters is not well defined, as was observed in the midlatitude MOLA data (transition at 7-8 km). Additionally, there appear to be additional topographic complexities such as anomalously large central structures in many polar latitude impact features. It is not yet clear if these are due to target-induced differences in the formation of the crater or post-formation modifications from polar processes.

  2. Comparison of impacts of aircraft emissions within the boundary layer on the regional ozone in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Sang-Keun; Shon, Zang-Ho; Kang, Yoon-Hee

    2015-09-01

    In this study, the air pollutants emitted from aircraft within the boundary layer (BL) were investigated for their impacts on the ozone (O3) concentration at and around three international airports (Incheon, RKSI; Gimpo, RKSS; and Jeju, RKPC) using the WRF-CMAQ modeling system during the summer of 2010. The analysis was performed using two sets of simulation scenarios: (1) with (i.e., TOTAL case) and (2) without aircraft emissions (i.e., BASE case). The model study suggested that aircraft emissions within the BL over the three airports can have a significant impact on the O3 (and NOx) concentrations in the source regions (the airports) and their surrounding/downwind areas. A significant negative impact of aircraft emissions on the O3 concentrations in the late afternoon (19:00 LST) was predicted near the three airports with their largest impact of -20 ppb near the RKSI at 19:00 LST. This was attributed mainly to the high NOx conditions in the VOC-limited areas and possibly in part to the rapid titration of O3 by NO around these airports. The rate of photochemical O3 destruction due to the aircraft emissions near the three airports was the most dominant contributor to the O3 levels compared to the other physical processes.

  3. A Framework to Predict the Impacts of Shale Gas Infrastructures on the Forest Fragmentation of an Agroforest Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Racicot, Alexandre; Babin-Roussel, Véronique; Dauphinais, Jean-François; Joly, Jean-Sébastien; Noël, Pascal; Lavoie, Claude

    2014-05-01

    We propose a framework to facilitate the evaluation of the impacts of shale gas infrastructures (well pads, roads, and pipelines) on land cover features, especially with regards to forest fragmentation. We used a geographic information system and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA (United States) experience, but adapted to a region of QC (Canada) with an already fragmented forest cover and a high gas potential. The scenario with the greatest impact results from development limited by regulatory constraints only, with no access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road network. The scenario with the lowest impact additionally integrates ecological constraints (deer yards, maple woodlots, and wetlands). Overall the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with <1 % of the forest cover lost in each case. However, large areas of core forests would be lost in both scenarios and the number of forest patches would increase by 13-21 % due to fragmentation. The pipeline network would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads. Using data acquired since the beginning of the shale gas industry, we show that it is possible, within a reasonable time frame, to produce a robust assessment of the impacts of shale gas extraction. The framework we propose could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions.

  4. A framework to predict the impacts of shale gas infrastructures on the forest fragmentation of an agroforest region.

    PubMed

    Racicot, Alexandre; Babin-Roussel, Véronique; Dauphinais, Jean-François; Joly, Jean-Sébastien; Noël, Pascal; Lavoie, Claude

    2014-05-01

    We propose a framework to facilitate the evaluation of the impacts of shale gas infrastructures (well pads, roads, and pipelines) on land cover features, especially with regards to forest fragmentation. We used a geographic information system and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA (United States) experience, but adapted to a region of QC (Canada) with an already fragmented forest cover and a high gas potential. The scenario with the greatest impact results from development limited by regulatory constraints only, with no access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road network. The scenario with the lowest impact additionally integrates ecological constraints (deer yards, maple woodlots, and wetlands). Overall the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with <1 % of the forest cover lost in each case. However, large areas of core forests would be lost in both scenarios and the number of forest patches would increase by 13-21 % due to fragmentation. The pipeline network would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads. Using data acquired since the beginning of the shale gas industry, we show that it is possible, within a reasonable time frame, to produce a robust assessment of the impacts of shale gas extraction. The framework we propose could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions. PMID:24554146

  5. Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taye, M. T.; Ntegeka, V.; Ogiramoi, N. P.; Willems, P.

    2011-01-01

    The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo), considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated. The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

  6. A modified regionalization weighting approach for climate change impact assessment at watershed scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zareian, Mohammad Javad; Eslamian, Saeid; Safavi, Hamid Reza

    2015-11-01

    This study is conducted to investigate the regional effects of climate change on Zayandeh-Rud River Basin located in the central part of Iran for the both near and far future scenarios. A combination of various general circulation models (GCMs) is used through a weighting approach to generate different climate change patterns including the ideal, medium, and critical patterns. Each of the GCMs has different ability to simulate the baseline climatic parameters in various months and regions of the basin. A new method, namely "modified weighting method based on the actual values" (MWM-AV), also is applied to convert the local effects of climate change to the regional effects. The results showed that the annual temperature of Zayandeh-Rud River Basin would increase by 0.59-1.34 and 1.02-2.53 °C, respectively, in the near and far futures in which maximum increase in seasonal temperature is expected to happen in the summer. Annual precipitation would change by +1.78 to -20.78 % in the near future and -14.35 to -32.82 % in the far future. The maximum decrease in precipitation is observed to be in the winter. The results of temperature and precipitation regionalization showed that the applied method has a good precision in estimating temperature and precipitation in different regions of the desired basin. The eastern part of the basin would have the maximum increase in temperature, while the western part would experience the maximum decrease in precipitation. Overall, the results demonstrated that due to the centralization of the main water uses in the east and the water resources in the west, the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin will face an intensive water shortage under climate change.

  7. Impacts of small arteriovenous malformations (AVM) on regional cerebral blood flow and glucose metabolism

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, R.S.; Yeh, S.H.; Chu, L.S.

    1994-05-01

    This study assessed the effects of small AVMs (<3 cm) on the regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) by Tc-99m HMPAO SPECT and on the glucose metabolism (rCGlcM) by [F-18]-FDG PET. Seven AVM patients (pts) were studied. All AVMs were confirmed by cerebral angiography and CT/MR scans. Tc-99m HMPAO SPECT and [F-18]-PDG PET images were interpreted visually to detect the changes of rCBF and rCGlcM. All pts except one brain stem AVM had defects in the regions of nidi on HMPAO and FDG images. FDG PET disclosed low rCGlcM in surrounding areas of AVMs in 6 pts, while HMPAO SPECT detected only 4 cases. One AVM had increased rCBF surrounding the nidus despite of decreased rCGlcM in the same region. Five pts had abnormal rCGlcM over ipsilateral remote cortex but only one had corresponding abnormal rCBF. Contralateral cortical hypofunction was noted in 3 pts by FDG PET but none by HMPAO SPECT. Cross cerebellar diaschisis was found in 2 AVMs by FDG PET and only one by HMPAO SPECT. All regions with abnormal HMPAO uptake did not look as discernibly as seen on the FDG PET scan. CT/MR scans detected the nidi of AVMs of all pts and old hemorrhage in one pt. In conclusion, either HMPAO SPECT or FDG PET is sensitive to detect the functional abnormalities in the region of nidus of small AVM and the surrounding brain tissue. FDG PET is better than HMPAO SPECT to detect functional changes in the remote cortex and diaschisis.

  8. Regional Climate Modeling of West African Summer Monsoon Climate: Impact of Historical Boundary Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebe, I.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we analyze and intercompare the performance of an ensemble of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by three set of Global Climate Models (GCMs), in reproducing seasonal mean climatologies with their annual cycle and the key features of West African summer monsoon over 20 years period (1985-2004) during the present day. The results show that errors in lateral boundary conditions from the GCM members, have an unexpected way on the skill of the RCMs in reproducing regional climate features such as the West African Monsoon features and the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation. It also shows the occurrence of the West African Monsoon jump, the intensification and northward shift of the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) as expressed in some RCMs than the GCMs. Most RCMs also capture the mean annual cycle of precipitation and temperature, including, single and double-peaked during the summer months, in terms of events and amplitude. In a series of RCMs and GCMs experiments between the Sahara region and equatorial Africa, the presence of strong positive meridional temperature gradients at the surface and a strong meridional gradients in the potential temperatures near the surface are obvious, indicating the region of strong vertical shear development enough to establish easterly flow such as the African easterly jet. In addition, the isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) gradient decreases northward in the lower troposphere across northern Africa, with the maximum reversal on the 315-K surface. The region with negative IPV gradient favors the potential instability which has been associated with the growth of easterly waves.

  9. Satellite-guided hydro-economic analysis for integrated management and prediction of the impact of droughts on agricultural regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maneta, M. P.; Howitt, R.; Kimball, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Agricultural activity can exacerbate or buffer the impact of climate variability, especially droughts, on the hydrologic and socioeconomic conditions of rural areas. Potential negative regional impacts of droughts include impoverishment of agricultural regions, deterioration or overuse of water resources, risk of monoculture, and regional dependence on external food markets. Policies that encourage adequate management practices in the face of adverse climatic events are critical to preserve rural livelihoods and to ensure a sustainable future for agriculture. Diagnosing and managing drought effects on agricultural production, on the social and natural environment, and on limited water resources, is highly complex and interdisciplinary. The challenges that decision-makers face to mitigate the impact of water shortage are social, agronomic, economic and environmental in nature and therefore must be approached from an integrated multidisciplinary point of view. Existing observation technologies, in conjunction with models and assimilation methods open the opportunity for novel interdisciplinary analysis tools to support policy and decision making. We present an integrated modeling and observation framework driven by satellite remote sensing and other ancillary information from regional monitoring networks to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, management decisions and socioeconomic policy. The core of this framework is a hydroeconomic model of agricultural production that assimilates remote sensing inputs to quantify the amount of land, water, fertilizer and labor farmers allocate for each crop they choose to grow on a seasonal basis in response to changing climatic conditions, including drought. A regional hydroclimatologic model provides biophysical constraints to an economic model of agricultural production based on a class of models referred to as positive mathematical programming (PMP

  10. Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuluri, F.

    2013-12-01

    The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view

  11. A near real time regional JPSS and GOES-R data assimilation system for high impact weather research and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, J.; Wang, P.; Han, H.; Schmit, T. J.

    2014-12-01

    JPSS and GOES-R observations play important role in numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, how to best represent the information from satellite observations and how to get value added information from these satellite data into regional NWP models, including both radiance and derived products, still need investigations. In order to enhance the applications of JPSS and GOES-R data in regional NWP for high impact weather forecasts, scientists from Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at University of Wisconsin-Madison have recently developed a near realtime regional Satellite Data Assimilation system for Tropical storm forecasts (SDAT) (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/sdat). The system consists of the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation system and the advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. In addition to assimilate GOES, AMSUA/AMSUB, HIRS, MHS, ATMS (Suomi-NPP), AIRS and IASI radiances, the SDAT is also able to assimilate satellite-derived products such as hyperspectral IR retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, total precipitable water (TPW), GOES Sounder (and future GOES-R) layer precipitable water (LPW) and GOES Imager atmospheric motion vector (AMV) products into the system. Real time forecasted GOES infrared (IR) images simulated from SDAT output have also been part of the SDAT system for applications and forecast evaluations. To set up the system parameters, a series of experiments have been carried out to test the impacts of different initialization schemes, including different background error matrix, different NCEP global model date sets, and different WRF model horizontal resolutions. Using SDAT as a research testbed, researches have been conducted for different satellite data impacts study, as well as different techniques for handling clouds in radiance assimilation. Since the fall of 2013, the SDAT system has been running in near real time. The results from historical cases and 2014

  12. Urban impacts on regional carbonaceous aerosols: case study in central Texas.

    PubMed

    Barrett, Tate E; Sheesley, Rebecca J

    2014-08-01

    Rural and background sites provide valuable information on the concentration and optical properties of organic, elemental, and water-soluble organic carbon (OC, EC, and WSOC), which are relevant for understanding the climate forcing potential of regional atmospheric aerosols. To quantify climate- and air quality-relevant characteristics of carbonaceous aerosol in the central United States, a regional background site in central Texas was chosen for long-term measurement. Back trajectory (BT) analysis, ambient OC, EC, and WSOC concentrations and absorption parameters are reported for the first 15 months of a long-term campaign (May 2011-August 2012). BT analysis indicates consistent north-south airflow connecting central Texas to the Central Plains. Central Texas aerosols exhibited seasonal trends with increased fine particulate matter (< 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter, PM2.5) and OC during the summer (PM2.5 = 10.9 microg m(-3) and OC = 3.0 microg m(-3)) and elevated EC during the winter (0.22 microg m(-3)). When compared to measurements in Dallas and Houston, TX, central Texas OC appears to have mixed urban and rural sources. However central Texas EC appears to be dominated by transport of urban emissions. WSOC averaged 63% of the annual OC, with little seasonal variability in this ratio. To monitor brown carbon (BrC), absorption was measured for the aqueous WSOC extracts. Light absorption coefficients for EC and BrC were highest during summer (EC MAC = 11 m2 g(-1) and BRC MAE365 = 0.15 m2 g(-1)). Results from optical analysis indicate that regional aerosol absorption is mostly due to EC with summertime peaks in BrC attenuation. This study represents the first reported values of WSOC absorption, MAE365, for the central United States. Implications: Background concentration and absorption measurements are essential in determining regional potential radiative forcing due to atmospheric aerosols. Back trajectory, chemical, and optical analysis of PM2.5 was used to

  13. Air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympics: secondary pollutants and regional impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, T.; Nie, W.; Gao, J.; Xue, L. K.; Gao, X. M.; Wang, X. F.; Qiu, J.; Poon, C. N.; Meinardi, S.; Blake, D.; Wang, S. L.; Ding, A. J.; Chai, F. H.; Zhang, Q. Z.; Wang, W. X.

    2010-08-01

    This paper presents the first results of the measurements of trace gases and aerosols at three surface sites in and outside Beijing before and during the 2008 Olympics. The official air pollution index near the Olympic Stadium and the data from our nearby site revealed an obvious association between air quality and meteorology and different responses of secondary and primary pollutants to the control measures. Ambient concentrations of vehicle-related nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at an urban site dropped by 25% and 20-45% in the first two weeks after full control was put in place, but the levels of ozone, sulfate and nitrate in PM2.5 increased by 16%, 64%, 37%, respectively, compared to the period prior to the full control; wind data and back trajectories indicated the contribution of regional pollution from the North China Plain. Air quality (for both primary and secondary pollutants) improved significantly during the Games, which were also associated with the changes in weather conditions (prolonged rainfall, decreased temperature, and more frequent air masses from clean regions). A comparison of the ozone data at three sites on eight ozone-pollution days, when the air masses were from the southeast-south-southwest sector, showed that regional pollution sources contributed >34-88% to the peak ozone concentrations at the urban site in Beijing. Regional sources also contributed significantly to the CO concentrations in urban Beijing. Ozone production efficiencies at two sites were low (~3 ppbv/ppbv), indicating that ozone formation was being controlled by VOCs. Compared with data collected in 2005 at a downwind site, the concentrations of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), total sulfur (SO2+PM2.5 sulfate), carbon monoxide (CO), reactive aromatics (toluene and xylenes) sharply decreased (by 8-64%) in 2008, but no significant changes were observed for the concentrations of PM2.5, fine sulfate, total odd reactive nitrogen (NOy), and longer

  14. Impacts of uplift of northern Tibetan Plateau and formation of Asian inland deserts on regional climate and environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xiaodong; Sun, Hui; Miao, Yunfa; Dong, Buwen; Yin, Zhi-Yong

    2015-05-01

    Based on the geological evidence that the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) had an uplift of a finite magnitude since the Miocene and the major Asian inland deserts formed in the early Pliocene, a regional climate model (RegCM4.1) with a horizontal resolution of 50 km was used to explore the effects of the NTP uplift and the related aridification of inland Asia on regional climate. We designed three numerical experiments including the control experiment representing the present-day condition, the high-mountain experiment representing the early Pliocene condition with uplifted NTP but absence of the Asian inland deserts, and the low-mountain experiment representing the mid-Miocene condition with reduced topography in the NTP (by as much as 2400 m) and also absence of the deserts. Our simulation results indicated that the NTP uplift caused significant reductions in annual precipitation in a broad region of inland Asia north of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) mainly due to the enhanced rain shadow effect of the mountains and changes in the regional circulations. However, four mountainous regions located in the uplift showed significant increases in precipitation, stretching from the Pamir Plateau in the west to the Qilian Mountains in the east. These mountainous areas also experienced different changes in the rainfall seasonality with the greatest increases occurring during the respective rainy seasons, predominantly resulted from the enhanced orographically forced upwind ascents. The appearance of the major deserts in the inland Asia further reduced precipitation in the region and led to increased dust emission and deposition fluxes, while the spatial patterns of dust deposition were also changed, not only in the regions of uplift-impacted topography, but also in the downwind regions. One major contribution from this study is the comparison of the simulation results with 11 existing geological records representing the moisture conditions from Miocene to Pliocene. The

  15. Economic impacts of SEPTA on the regional and state economy. Final report. [SouthEast Pennsylvania Transportation Authority

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-06-01

    The report evaluates the economic and social impacts of supporting the Southeast Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) public transportation system. The study is comprehensive, considering travel times and costs for individual travelers, and how those changes would affect the cost of doing business, individual spending patterns, and the regional and State economies. Four alternatives were considered: rehabilitation of the system and continuation of services, a fifty-percent scaleback of services, gradual shutdown of the system over ten years, and immediate shutdown. The analysis showed that rehabilitation of the system would return three dollars to the region for every dollar spent on it, and that cutting back service would have economic costs far greater than any savings accrued. The methodology is general, and can be applied in other areas.

  16. Fingerprinting the Impacts of Aerosols on Long-Term Trends of the Indian Summer Monsoon Regional Rainfall

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laul, K. M.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present corroborative observational evidences from satellites, in-situ observations, and re-analysis data showing possible impacts of absorbing aerosols (black carbon and dust) on subseasonal and regional summer monsoon rainfall over India. We find that increased absorbing aerosols in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in recent decades may have lead to long-term warming of the upper troposphere over northern India and the Tibetan Plateau, enhanced rainfall in northern India and the Himalayas foothill regions in the early part (may-June) of the monsoon season, followed by diminished rainfall over central and southern India in the latter part (July-August) of the monsoon season. These signals which are consistent with current theories of atmospheric heating and solar dimming by aerosol and induced cloudiness in modulating the Indian monsoon, would have been masked by conventional method of using al-India rainfall averaged over the entire monsoon season.

  17. Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S.; Olama, Mohammed M.

    2016-08-01

    High average temperatures lead to high regional electricity demand for cooling buildings, and large populations generally require more aggregate electricity than smaller ones do. Thus, future global climate and population changes will present regional infrastructure challenges regarding changing electricity demand. However, without spatially explicit representation of this demand or the ways in which it might change at the neighbourhood scale, it is difficult to determine which electricity service areas are most vulnerable and will be most affected by these changes. Here we show that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for adaptation planning at the urban level in a changing climate. Employing high-resolution and spatially explicit tools, we find that electricity demand increases caused by temperature rise have the greatest impact over the next 40 years in areas serving small populations, and that large population influx stresses any affected service area, especially during peak demand.

  18. Impacts of Regional Climate Change on Biogenic Emissions and Air Quality

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yang; Hu, X.-M.; Leung, Lai R.; Gustafson, William I.

    2008-09-25

    Regional air quality simulations are conducted for four summers (2001, 2002, 2051, and 2052) to examine the sensitivity of air quality to potential regional climate change in the U.S. In response to the predicted warmer climate in 2051/2052, emissions of isoprene and terpene increase by 20-92.1% and 20-56%, respectively, over most of the domain. Surface O3, which is sensitive to changes in temperature and solar radiation but relatively insensitive to changes in PBL height and cloud fraction, increase by up to 19-20%. PM2.5, its compositions, and visibility exhibit an overall negative sensitivity (decrease by up to 40%), resulting from the competition of the negative temperature effect and positive emission/temperature effects. While the response of dry deposition is governed by the negative sensitivity of surface resistances, that of wet deposition is either positive or negative, depending on the relative dominancy of changes in PM2.5 and precipitation. Overall the net climatic effect dominates changes in O3, PM2.5, wet and total deposition, and the net biogenic emission effect is important for isoprene, organic matter, visibility, and dry deposition over several regions. Models that do not include secondary organic aerosol formation from isoprene photooxidation may underestimate by at least 20% the air quality responses to future climate changes over many areas of the modeling domain. Both regional climate and air quality exhibit interannual variability, particularly in temperature, isoprene emissions, and PM2.5 concentrations, indicating a need for long-term simulations to predict future air quality.

  19. Interactions of early adversity with stress-related gene polymorphisms impact regional brain structure in females.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Arpana; Labus, Jennifer; Kilpatrick, Lisa A; Bonyadi, Mariam; Ashe-McNalley, Cody; Heendeniya, Nuwanthi; Bradesi, Sylvie; Chang, Lin; Mayer, Emeran A

    2016-04-01

    Early adverse life events (EALs) have been associated with regional thinning of the subgenual cingulate cortex (sgACC), a brain region implicated in the development of disorders of mood and affect, and often comorbid functional pain disorders, such as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Regional neuroinflammation related to chronic stress system activation has been suggested as a possible mechanism underlying these neuroplastic changes. However, the interaction of genetic and environmental factors in these changes is poorly understood. The current study aimed to evaluate the interactions of EALs and candidate gene polymorphisms in influencing thickness of the sgACC. 210 female subjects (137 healthy controls; 73 IBS) were genotyped for stress and inflammation-related gene polymorphisms. Genetic variation with EALs, and diagnosis on sgACC thickness was examined, while controlling for race, age, and total brain volume. Compared to HCs, IBS had significantly reduced sgACC thickness (p = 0.03). Regardless of disease group (IBS vs. HC), thinning of the left sgACC was associated with a significant gene-gene environment interaction between the IL-1β genotype, the NR3C1 haplotype, and a history of EALs (p = 0.05). Reduced sgACC thickness in women with the minor IL-1β allele, was associated with EAL total scores regardless of NR3C1 haplotype status (p = 0.02). In subjects homozygous for the major IL-1β allele, reduced sgACC with increasing levels of EALs was seen only with the less common NR3C1 haplotype (p = 0.02). These findings support an interaction between polymorphisms related to stress and inflammation and early adverse life events in modulating a key region of the emotion arousal circuit. PMID:25630611

  20. Formation of secondary organic aerosol in the Paris pollution plume and its impact on surrounding regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Q. J.; Beekmann, M.; Freney, E.; Sellegri, K.; Pichon, J. M.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Colomb, A.; Bourrianne, T.; Michoud, V.; Borbon, A.

    2015-03-01

    Secondary pollutants such as ozone, secondary inorganic aerosol, and secondary organic aerosol formed in the plume of megacities can affect regional air quality. In the framework of the FP7/EU MEGAPOLI project, an intensive campaign was launched in the Greater Paris Region in July 2009. The major objective was to quantify different sources of organic aerosol (OA) within a megacity and in its plume. In this study, we use airborne measurements aboard the French ATR-42 aircraft to evaluate the regional chemistry-transport model CHIMERE within and downwind the Paris region. Slopes of the plume OA levels vs. Ox (= O3 + NO2) show secondary OA (SOA) formation normalized with respect to photochemical activity and are used for specific evaluation of the OA scheme in the model. Simulated and observed slopes are in good agreement, when the most realistic "high-NOx" yields are used in the Volatility-Basis-Set scheme implemented into the model. In addition, these slopes are relatively stable from one day to another, which suggest that they are characteristic for the given megacity plume environment. Since OA within the plume is mainly formed from anthropogenic precursors (VOC and primary OA, POA), this work allows a specific evaluation of anthropogenic SOA and SOA formed from primary semi-volatile and intermediate volatile VOCs (SI-SOA) formation scheme in a model. For specific plumes, this anthropogenic OA build-up can reach about 10 μg m-3. For the average of the month of July 2009, maximum increases occur close to the agglomeration for primary OA are noticed at several tens (for POA) to hundred (for SI-SOA) kilometers of distance from the Paris agglomeration.

  1. The impacts of climate changes in the renewable energy resources in the Caribbean region

    SciTech Connect

    Erickson III, David J

    2010-02-01

    Assessment of renewable energy resources such as surface solar radiation and wind current has great relevance in the development of local and regional energy policies. This paper examines the variability and availability of these resources as a function of possible climate changes for the Caribbean region. Global climate changes have been reported in the last decades, causing changes in the atmospheric dynamics, which affects the net solar radiation balance at the surface and the wind strength and direction. For this investigation, the future climate changes for the Caribbean are predicted using the parallel climate model (PCM) and it is coupled with the numerical model regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) to simulate the solar and wind energy spatial patterns changes for the specific case of the island of Puerto Rico. Numerical results from PCM indicate that the Caribbean basin from 2041 to 2055 will experience a slight decrease in the net surface solar radiation (with respect to the years 1996-2010), which is more pronounced in the western Caribbean sea. Results also indicate that the easterly winds have a tendency to increase in its magnitude, especially from the years 2070 to 2098. The regional model showed that important areas to collect solar energy are located in the eastern side of Puerto Rico, while the more intense wind speed is placed around the coast. A future climate change is expected in the Caribbean that will result in higher energy demands, but both renewable energy sources will have enough intensity to be used in the future as alternative energy resources to mitigate future climate changes.

  2. Morphological impacts of flow events of varying magnitude on ephemeral channels in a semiarid region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hooke, J. M.

    2016-01-01

    Flows in ephemeral channels in semiarid areas are only occasional, and channel changes are episodic; but the flash floods can be devastating and have major geomorphological impacts. Data on morphological impacts of flows in semiarid areas are needed to increase understanding of the dynamics and variability of geomorphic responses in such channels. For this purpose nine reaches of river channel in three catchments in SE Spain - the Nogalte, Torrealvilla, and Salada - have been sites for measurement of flows and their effects over the period 1997-2012. The sites encompass a range of channel size, channel morphology, substrate, vegetation, and position within the catchments. A major difference is between schist and marl bedrock areas. Peak flow stage has been recorded and topography surveyed at frequent intervals and after major flow events. Over the 16-year period, an average of 0.5 flow events per year has been recorded at the schist sites, and an average of one per year at the marl sites; but occurrence has been highly variable from year to year. Threshold daily rainfall for channel flow is mostly 15-20 mm, but higher rainfalls do not always produce flow. One to two major floods have occurred in each of the catchments in the period, including the extreme flood event of September 2012 in the Nogalte catchment. Measured morphological changes have occurred between 2 and 10 times at the monitored sites. The same size flow can have differing effects depending on the state of the system. Low flow can mobilise sediment without producing much morphological change. The long-term trajectory of the reaches and the sediment substrate has a major influence on response to events. Channel change is governed by threshold values of hydraulic conditions. The measurements provide an indication of the scale of maximum erosion and deposition that occurs within the channels and on the floodplains over a range of flow magnitudes and the flow impacts that need to be considered in

  3. Possible Impact Origin for the Late Ordovician Bear Swamp Structure in the Finger Lakes Region of New York

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leiphart, D.

    2010-12-01

    Impact structures, or astroblemes, are one of rarest formations in the geologic record. Presently there are 176 confirmed impact structures on the planet with roughly two-thirds of them evident at the surface. A potential impact structure has been discovered in a 3D seismic survey in the Finger Lakes Region of upstate New York (Figure 1 - N42o43.187’; W76o16.637’). The Bear Swamp crater is uppermost Ordovician (~444 Ma) in age and is situated within the fluvial-deltaic to shallow marine Queenston Formation. This nearly circular structure measures 3.5 km (2.2 mi) in diameter and is completely buried in the subsurface at a depth of approximately 1,220 m (4,000 ft). Seismic data show a central uplift within the crater that rises about 160 m (525 ft) above the base. Around the central uplift is an annular basin that is more than 300 m (~1,000 ft) thick and is characterized by synformal seismic reflectors (Figure 1). This three-dimensional morphology resembles other complex craters of confirmed impact origin. Two exploration wells were drilled into the crater and image logs were run. The first well tested the central rebound which consists of steeply dipping beds and heavily brecciated zones. The second well was drilled in the annular basin which contains alternating sequences of chaotic zones and shallow dipping beds. Based on analogous impact structures, this crater fill is here interpreted as resurge breccias and turbidites which were the result of intense wave action in the moments after impact. Above these impact-related deposits lies a zone of very thin (~2cm) laminae which resemble varved sediments in lacustrine environments. A bioturbated zone overlies these thin laminae, which is in turn capped by the End Ordovician unconformity. Observations of both seismic and well data are consistent with a shallow marine to transition zone impact origin for the Bear Swamp crater. Figure 1: Location map showing the area of the ~180 km2 (70 mi2) 3D seismic survey and the

  4. Impact of climate change on runoff timing over the Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coppola, Erika; Raffaele, Francesca; Giorgi, Filippo; Giuliani, Graziano

    2015-04-01

    In this work we focus our attention on the snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) on the Alpine region. We use the Regional Climate model output from Med-CORDEX simulation and in particular the ICTP regional climate model RegCM4 at 2 different resolutions (12km, 50km) and the output from other 3 EURO-CORDEX Models (RACMO22E and HIRHAM5, both driven by EC-EARTH and CCLM4-8-17, driven by MPI-ESM-LR; all of them at 44 and 11 km resolutions). Comparison with the European Water Archive (EWA) observed runoff dataset (242 stations) over Alps show a good performance of all the models in the present day representation of the SDR at the highest resolution. The low-resolution simulations are less accurate in representing the runoff timing. For the future projection we analyzed the RCP 8.5 scenario for the whole ensemble. All the models show a temperature increase up to 4 degrees in the Alps and this leads to a change of SDR timing that can span from 1 to 3 months depending on the model space resolution. These large changes are probably due to the snow-albedo feedback that is amplified over the complex Alpine topography. Such a change in runoff timing can be really important for water storage regulation rules for energy production, irrigation and therefore agricolture, and domestic use.

  5. Place matters: the impact of place of residency on racial attitudes among regional and urban migrants.

    PubMed

    Carter, J Scott; Carter, Shannon K

    2014-09-01

    Scholars have debated whether racial attitudes are socialized early in life and persist throughout one's lifetime or are open to influences from one's environment as an adult. This study introduces another approach that holds that place, as opposed to the timing of socialization, is an important consideration for the socialization of racial attitudes. Using data from the American National Election Study, we consider the effect of region and urban residency on racial attitudes by comparing lifelong residents of these locations to those who migrate into and out of them. Using improved measures of early life socialization and region of residency, we conclude that a place-based model can be used to explain the socialization of racial resentment. For regional migrants, those moving into and out of the non-South maintain levels of racial resentment similar to non-Southern stayers. For urban migrants, the lifelong openness model of socialization was most appropriate. These migrants were more likely to change and adopt the level of racial resentment similar to that of their destination peers. These findings generally persist across time. PMID:24913952

  6. Physical impacts of regional climate change in the West African Sahel and the question of desertification

    SciTech Connect

    Nicholson, S.E.; Ba, M.

    1997-11-01

    The question of desertification is examined in the West African Sahel region by considering various physical indicators assumed to accompany this process. The study considers only the past 14 years, since the availability of comprehensive satellite data sets. The physical indicators examined include vegetation cover, surface albedo, soil moisture, wind-borne dust, river flow, lakes, and the ratio of available moisture to vegetation growth. Vegetation cover and albedo are assessed from satellite data. Soil moisture is assessed using a surface hydrologic model. Dust is estimated from visibility measurements. The most important results are that: (1) there is no progressive change in the vegetation cover, (2) an increase of albedo as the region dries up cannot be documented, and (3) there has been a tremendous increase in wind-borne dust over the Sahel. The vegetation cover responds almost directly to rainfall and the movement of the desert boundary corresponds roughly to rainfall fluctuations. The most important meteorological effect of the drought and/or desertification in the Sahel may be the enhanced dust generation, with the region becoming a major global source of atmospheric mineral dust. 5 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Regional modeling of natural dust in the United State: Source emission, transport, and photochemical impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tong, D. Q.; Mathur, R.; Mobley, D.; Wong, D.; Yu, S.

    2008-12-01

    We developed a dust emission module to estimate the wind-blown dust emissions from dessert and agricultural land using local wind speed, threshold wind speed to initiate erosion, soil texture and moisture, land use type, and vegetation coverage. The estimated dust is then partitioned to create a fraction of the total sediment mobilized by the wind for vertical transport and subsequent regional circulation. This dust module also included detailed chemical speciation and size distribution, and a geographic filter to eliminate unrealistic emission sources (e.g., mountain peaks with dry soil and strong winds). We then couple the dust module with a regional air quality model CMAQ to: (1) study if the WRF-CMAQ national air quality forecasting system can accurately predict major dust storms occurring in the United States; 2) estimate the annual budget of natural dust emissions from agricultural and dessert lands and their relative importance for total PM2.5 over different U.S. regions; and 3) examine the effects of dust emissions on photolysis rates and consequently on levels of tropospheric O3 and atmospheric oxidants.

  8. Regional Impacts of Miscanthus Biofuel Feedstock Production on the Hydrologic Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanloocke, A. D.; Twine, T. E.; Bernacchi, C.

    2009-12-01

    Socio-economic and scientific interest toward the use of renewable energy to offset fossil fuel dependence and greenhouse gas emissions is increasing. Currently, the majority of the US renewable energy production is focused on replacing gasoline with corn ethanol. In 2008, 18% of the US corn yield was used to displace ~5% of US gasoline consumption. This represents progress toward meeting the goals of offsetting 30% of liquid fossil fuel consumption by 2030 as established by the US government in the Advanced Energy Initiative (AEI). However, a growing body of research indicates that it may not be beneficial or even possible for corn ethanol alone to meet the AEI goals. Highly productive bioenergy feedstocks requiring fewer inputs such as Miscanthus x Giganteus (Miscanthus) are ideal candidates, relative to maize, to provide a renewable and sustainable alternative to fossil fuel. It is anticipated that Miscanthus is likely to have minimal environmental impacts and could be potentially beneficial to the environment. In order to meet the AEI goals, Miscanthus production on the scale of 1x10<6> ha would be needed. Before this level of production occurs, uncertainty over the environmental impacts of large-scale implementation should be addressed particularly with regards to the hydrologic cycle. We calibrated and evaluated a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model, Agro-IBIS (Integrated Biosphere Simulator, agricultural version), to simulate the impacts of land-use-change from current land-use practices to Miscanthus production on the hydrologic cycle. Simulations for the Midwestern US (0.5°grid cell resolution) were generated using the same climate forcing for current land cover and additional scenarios where Miscanthus was planted in varying densities (10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%). Analyses indicate that for most of the Midwestern US, large increases in evapotranspiration (~100 to 250 mm/yr) and decreases in drainage (~ -100 to -250 mm/yr) occur when high

  9. Empirical evidence of direct impact of extreme temperatures on wheat yield in major wheat growing region of India.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murari, K. K.; Mahato, S.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Exposure to extreme temperatures during the grain filling stage of winter wheat may lead to reduction in the yield. Over the last decade, there has been an increasing trend of exposure to extreme temperature conditions, particularly during crop growing season. The Indo Gangetic plain (IGP) is a particular concern since an optimal temperature for wheat production already exists in the region. This is also a major concern for global wheat production since the region accounts for about 15% of the global wheat production. Previous studies conducted in this region have found a strong impact of extreme temperatures causing an early occurrence of senescence, defined as the last developmental stage of the plant. The early occurrence of senescence period induces shortening of growing season length, which is a critical grain filling stage. However, the direct effect of extreme temperatures on the yield data has not yet been looked at, which reflects the impact of extreme temperature at different growth stages including anthesis (flowering) and the grain-filling stage. Here in this study, we explore the relationship of extreme heat conditions on the yield using fixed-effect panel data model for the districts in the IGP region. The first result indicates approximately 16% reduction in wheat yield with 1˚C rise in mean growing season temperature. There is a significant negative trend between the yield and the fourth quartile of extreme temperature (>34˚C) days. Furthermore, we establish a scope of existence of a nonlinear relationship between temperature and yield, which needs to be further examined.

  10. Impact of climate change on human-wildlife-ecosystem interactions in the Trans-Himalaya region of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aryal, Achyut; Brunton, Dianne; Raubenheimer, David

    2014-02-01

    The Trans-Himalaya region boasts an immense biodiversity which includes several threatened species and supports the livelihood of local human populations. Our aim in this study was to evaluate the impact of recent climate change on the biodiversity and human inhabitants of the upper Mustang region of the Trans-Himalaya, Nepal. We found that the average annual temperature in the upper Mustang region has increased by 0.13 °C per year over the last 23 years; a higher annual temperature increase than experienced in other parts of Himalaya. A predictive model suggested that the mean annual temperature will double by 2161 to reach 20 °C in the upper Mustang region. The combined effects of increased temperature and diminished snowfall have resulted in a reduction in the area of land suitable for agriculture. Most seriously affected are Samjung village (at 4,100 m altitude) and Dhey village (at 3,800 m) in upper Mustang, where villagers have been forced to relocate to an area with better water availability. Concurrent with the recent change in climate, there have been substantial changes in vegetation communities. Between 1979 and 2009, grasslands and forests in the Mustang district have diminished by 11 and 42 %, respectively, with the tree line having shifted towards higher elevation. Further, grasses and many shrub species are no longer found in abundance at higher elevations and consequently blue sheep ( Pseduois nayaur) move to forage at lower elevations where they encounter and raid human crops. The movement of blue sheep attracts snow leopard ( Panthera uncia) from their higher-elevation habitats to lower sites, where they encounter and depredate livestock. Increased crop raiding by blue sheep and depredations of livestock by snow leopard have impacted adversely on the livelihoods of local people.

  11. Climate Change in Africa: Impacts and Effects on the Inhabitants of the Lake Chad Region.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abubakar, B.; Tahir, S. M.; Olisa, O.

    2009-05-01

    The Department of Energy and Climate Change defined climate as the average weather experienced over a long period. This includes temperature, wind and rainfall patterns. The climate of the Earth is not static, and has changed many times in response to a variety of natural causes. Due to human activities in emmiting green house gases has resulted the Earth to get warmed by 0.74°C over the last hundred years. Around 0.4°C of this warming has occurred since the 1970s. Climate is now one of the major phenomenon threatening lives and humanity in general since the beginning of industrial revolution. Climate exerts a profound influence on the lives of poor populations in the Lake Chad region of Africa who depend on fishing and crop cultivation for livelihood and sustenance, who are unprotected against climate-related diseases, who lacked secure access to water and food and who are vulnerable to hydro meteorological hazard. The effects of climate change on the study area are many and include diminishing resources and conflicts over the available limited water resources. The Lake Chad region is a fragile area with high climate variability and extremes of weather. As this inland water is used for domestic and agricultural purposes, salt mining, as well as transportation by Nigerians, Nigeriens, Chadian and Cameroonians, it is an area of trans-boundary water conflicts. This paper examines the part played by climate change in the decline of fishery resources and livelihood activities in the Lake Chad region. Data from field studies, structured interview and secondary sources show that fish catches and livelihood activities have declined tremendously in recent times due to several factors including overexploitation and increasing demands on the aquatic resources. Findings from the study show that droughty periods have resulted in the reduction of open lake water surface from about 25,000 km2 in 1973 to less than 2,000 km2 in the 1990s. This has led to the diminishing aquatic

  12. Air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympics: secondary pollutants and regional impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, T.; Nie, W.; Gao, J.; Xue, L. K.; Gao, X. M.; Wang, X. F.; Qiu, J.; Poon, C. N.; Meinardi, S.; Blake, D.; Ding, A. J.; Chai, F. H.; Zhang, Q. Z.; Wang, W. X.

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents the first results of the atmospheric measurements of trace gases and aerosols at three surface sites in and around Beijing before and during the 2008 Olympics. We focus on secondary pollutants including ozone, fine sulfate and nitrate, and the contribution of regional sources in summer 2008. The results reveal different responses of secondary pollutants to the control measures from primary pollutants. Ambient concentrations of vehicle-related nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at an urban site dropped by 25% and 20-45% in the first two weeks after full control was put in place, but the levels of ozone, sulfate and nitrate in PM2.5 increased by 16%, 64%, 37%, respectively, compared to the period prior to the full control; wind data and back trajectories indicated the contribution of regional pollution from the North China Plain. Air quality (for both primary and secondary pollutants) improved significantly during the Games, which were also associated with the changes in weather conditions (prolonged rainfall, decreased temperature, and more frequent air masses from clean regions). A comparison of the ozone data at three sites on eight ozone-pollution days, when the air masses were from the southeast-south-southwest sector, showed that regional pollution sources contributed 34%-88% to the peak ozone concentrations in urban Beijing. Ozone production efficiencies at two sites were low (~3 ppbv/ppbv), indicating that ozone formation was being controlled by VOCs. Compared with data collected in 2005 at a downwind site, the concentrations of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), total sulfur (SO2+PM2.5 sulfate), carbon monoxide (CO), reactive aromatics (toluene and xylenes) sharply decreased (by 8-64%) in 2008, but no significant changes were observed for the concentrations of PM2.5, fine sulfate, total odd reactive nitrogen (NOy), and longer lived alkanes and benzene. We suggest that these results indicate the success of the government

  13. Impact of high resolution land surface initialization in Indian summer monsoon simulation using a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unnikrishnan, C. K.; Rajeevan, M.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara

    2016-06-01

    The direct impact of high resolution land surface initialization on the forecast bias in a regional climate model in recent years over Indian summer monsoon region is investigated. Two sets of regional climate model simulations are performed, one with a coarse resolution land surface initial conditions and second one used a high resolution land surface data for initial condition. The results show that all monsoon years respond differently to the high resolution land surface initialization. The drought monsoon year 2009 and extended break periods were more sensitive to the high resolution land surface initialization. These results suggest that the drought monsoon year predictions can be improved with high resolution land surface initialization. Result also shows that there are differences in the response to the land surface initialization within the monsoon season. Case studies of heat wave and a monsoon depression simulation show that, the model biases were also improved with high resolution land surface initialization. These results show the need for a better land surface initialization strategy in high resolution regional models for monsoon forecasting.

  14. Impact of assimilation of meso-scale tower data on simulations of weather over the Himalayan region.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rakesh, V.; Goswami, P.

    2010-09-01

    A continuing difficulty in improving numerical forecast at smaller spatial scales relates to the fact that input observational information is limited and inaccurate, especially in data sparse areas like oceans, deserts and regions of complex topography. The accuracy of analysis from numerical models over mountainous region is further degraded by relatively more error over high altitude in case of satellite observations. Use of surface observations, preferably from a meso-scale network is expected significantly improve simulations over region of complex topography. The Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has established a series of meteorological towers over the mountainous terrain over the Himalayan region which provides meteorological observations at 3 levels every half hour on a regular basis. In this study we have made use of these observations for studying the impact of assimilation of local data on short-range forecasts. We have used the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the three dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation scheme. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analysis is used for providing model initial and boundary condition. Assimilation experiments were conducted for selected rainy and non-rainy events for different months. A comparative analysis of control simulations (no assimilation) and assimilation experiments (with assimilation of tower observation) shows significant improvement in model predicted fields especially in wind speed and rainfall.

  15. Impact of Marcellus Shale natural gas development in southwest Pennsylvania on volatile organic compound emissions and regional air quality.

    PubMed

    Swarthout, Robert F; Russo, Rachel S; Zhou, Yong; Miller, Brandon M; Mitchell, Brittney; Horsman, Emily; Lipsky, Eric; McCabe, David C; Baum, Ellen; Sive, Barkley C

    2015-03-01

    The Marcellus Shale is the largest natural gas deposit in the U.S. and rapid development of this resource has raised concerns about regional air pollution. A field campaign was conducted in the southwestern Pennsylvania region of the Marcellus Shale to investigate the impact of unconventional natural gas (UNG) production operations on regional air quality. Whole air samples were collected throughout an 8050 km(2) grid surrounding Pittsburgh and analyzed for methane, carbon dioxide, and C1-C10 volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Elevated mixing ratios of methane and C2-C8 alkanes were observed in areas with the highest density of UNG wells. Source apportionment was used to identify characteristic emission ratios for UNG sources, and results indicated that UNG emissions were responsible for the majority of mixing ratios of C2-C8 alkanes, but accounted for a small proportion of alkene and aromatic compounds. The VOC emissions from UNG operations accounted for 17 ± 19% of the regional kinetic hydroxyl radical reactivity of nonbiogenic VOCs suggesting that natural gas emissions may affect compliance with federal ozone standards. A first approximation of methane emissions from the study area of 10.0 ± 5.2 kg s(-1) provides a baseline for determining the efficacy of regulatory emission control efforts. PMID:25594231

  16. Site-Specific Impact of a Regional Hydrodynamic Injection: Computed Tomography Study during Hydrodynamic Injection Targeting the Swine Liver

    PubMed Central

    Yokoo, Takeshi; Kanefuji, Tsutomu; Suda, Takeshi; Kamimura, Kenya; Liu, Dexi; Terai, Shuji

    2015-01-01

    A hemodynamic study of hydrodynamic gene delivery (HGD) from the tail vein in rodents has inspired a mechanism and an approach to further improve the efficacy of this procedure. However, there is no report on the hemodynamics of a regional HGD, which is an inevitable approach in large animals. Here, we report the hemodynamics of a regional hydrodynamic injection in detail based on 3D volume data and the dynamism of tissue intensity over time by using computed tomography (CT) both during and after a regional hydrodynamic injection that targeted the liver of a pig weighing 15.6 kg. Contrast medium (CM) was injected at a steady speed of 20 mL/s for 7.5 s under the temporal balloon occlusion of the hepatic vein (HV). A retrograde flow formed a wedge-shaped strong enhancement area downstream of the corresponding HV within 2.5 s, which was followed by drainage into another HV beginning from the target area and the portal vein (PV) toward a non-target area of the liver. After the injection, the CM was readily eliminated from the PV outside the target area. These data suggest that an interventional radiology approach is effective in limiting the hydrodynamic impacts in large animals at a target area and that the burden overflowing into the PV is limited. A further investigation that simultaneously evaluates gene delivery efficiency and hemodynamics using CT is needed to establish feasible parameters for a regional HGD in large animals. PMID:26389943

  17. Assessment of Aerosol Radiative Impact over Oceanic Regions Adjacent to Indian Subcontinent using Multi-Satellite Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Satheesh, S. K.; Vinoj, V.; Krishnamoorthy, K.

    2010-10-01

    Using data from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, we have retrieved regional distribution of aerosol column single scattering albedo (parameter indicative of the relative dominance of aerosol absorption and scattering effects), a most important, but least understood aerosol property in assessing its climate impact. Consequently we provide improved assessment of short wave aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) (on both regional and seasonal scales) estimates over this region. Large gradients in north-south ARF were observed as a consequence of gradients in single scattering albedo as well as aerosol optical depth. The highest ARF (-37 W m-2 at the surface) was observed over the northern Arabian Sea during June to August period (JJA). In general, ARF was higher over northern Bay of Bengal (NBoB) during winter and pre-monsoon period, whereas the ARF was higher over northern Arabian Sea (NAS) during the monsoon and post- monsoon period. The largest forcing observed over NAS during JJA is the consequence of large amounts of desert dust transported from the west Asian dust sources. High as well as seasonally invariant aerosol single scattering albedos (~0.98) were observed over the southern Indian Ocean region far from continents. The ARF estimates based on direct measurements made at a remote island location, Minicoy (8.3°N, 73°E) in the southern Arabian Sea are in good agreement with the estimates made following multisatellite analysis.

  18. The impact of deforestation in the Amazon on precipitation in other regions of Brazil: a challenge for sustainable development?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swann, A. L.; Longo, M.; Knox, R. G.; Lee, E.; Moorcroft, P. R.

    2013-12-01

    Ongoing agricultural expansion in Amazonia and the surrounding areas of Brazil is expected to continue over the next several decades as global food demand increases. The transition of natural forest and cerrado ecosystems to pastureland and agricultural crops creates warmer and drier atmospheric conditions than the native vegetation. In a number of recent climate modeling studies, the Amazon has been shown to exhibit two contrasting states for the water cycle and ecosystems of the region: a moist forested state, and an alternate drier and warmer state with savanna-like vegetation. In this work we address the question of whether deforestation and conversion to agricultural land cause the atmosphere-vegetation-hydrologic system of the Amazon to switch from is current moist state to the warmer and drier one. Using a coupled ecosystem- regional atmospheric model (the ED-BRAMS) we simulate future deforestation in the Amazon and asses the impact on climate across the region, forest structure and demography, and carbon cycling. We find that deforestation leads to local decreases in latent heat flux associated with reductions in leaf area and above ground biomass. Precipitation decreases locally associated with some deforested areas. Outside of the wet forest, there are slight decreases in rainfall, leaf area, and latent heat flux in downstream regions to the south. Both early and late successional plant types decrease in biomass, but some of the loss is compensated for by increasing the abundance of C4 grasses.

  19. Mechanisms controlling arsenic uptake in rice grown in mining impacted regions in South China.

    PubMed

    Li, Junhui; Dong, Fei; Lu, Ying; Yan, Qiuyan; Shim, Hojae

    2014-01-01

    Foods produced on soils impacted by Pb-Zn mining activities are a potential health risk due to plant uptake of the arsenic (As) associated with such mining. A field survey was undertaken in two Pb-Zn mining-impacted paddy fields in Guangdong Province, China to assess As accumulation and translocation, as well as other factors influencing As in twelve commonly grown rice cultivars. The results showed that grain As concentrations in all the surveyed rice failed national food standards, irrespective of As speciation. Among the 12 rice cultivars, "SY-89" and "DY-162" had the least As in rice grain. No significant difference for As concentration in grain was observed between the rice grown in the two areas that differed significantly for soil As levels, suggesting that the amount of As contamination in the soil is not necessarily the overriding factor controlling the As content in the rice grain. The iron and manganese plaque on the root surface curtailed As accumulation in rice roots. Based on our results, the accumulation of As within rice plants was strongly associated with such soil properties such as silicon, phosphorus, organic matter, pH, and clay content. Understanding the factors and mechanisms controlling As uptake is important to develop mitigation measures that can reduce the amount of As accumulated in rice grains produced on contaminated soils. PMID:25251438

  20. Population, Environment, and Climate in the Albertine Rift: Understanding Local Impacts of Regional Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S. J.; Diem, J.; Palace, M. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is of critical concern for conservation and to develop appropriate policies and responses, it is important not only to anticipate the nature of changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local people. The Albertine Rift in East Africa is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense settlement, extreme poverty, and land conversion. We synthesize ongoing NSF-CNH research, where Ugandan park landscapes are examined to understand the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. Kibale National Park, the main study site, exemplifies the challenges facing many parks because of its isolation within a densely populated agricultural landscape. Three separate household surveys (n=251, 130, 100) reveal that the most perceived benefits provided by Kibale were ecosystem services and farmers cite rainfall as one of the park's most important benefits, but are also concerned with variable precipitation. Analysis of 30+ years of daily rainfall station data shows total rainfall has not changed significantly, but timing and transitions of seasons and intra-seasonal distribution are highly variable, which may contribute to changes in farming schedules and threaten food security. Further, the contrast between land use/cover change over 25 years around the park and the stability of forest within the park underscores the need to understand this landscape for future sustainability planning and the inevitable population growth outside its boundaries. Understanding climate change impacts and feedbacks to and from socio-ecological systems are important to address the dual challenge of biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.

  1. Mechanisms Controlling Arsenic Uptake in Rice Grown in Mining Impacted Regions in South China

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Ying; Yan, Qiuyan; Shim, Hojae

    2014-01-01

    Foods produced on soils impacted by Pb-Zn mining activities are a potential health risk due to plant uptake of the arsenic (As) associated with such mining. A field survey was undertaken in two Pb-Zn mining-impacted paddy fields in Guangdong Province, China to assess As accumulation and translocation, as well as other factors influencing As in twelve commonly grown rice cultivars. The results showed that grain As concentrations in all the surveyed rice failed national food standards, irrespective of As speciation. Among the 12 rice cultivars, “SY-89” and “DY-162” had the least As in rice grain. No significant difference for As concentration in grain was observed between the rice grown in the two areas that differed significantly for soil As levels, suggesting that the amount of As contamination in the soil is not necessarily the overriding factor controlling the As content in the rice grain. The iron and manganese plaque on the root surface curtailed As accumulation in rice roots. Based on our results, the accumulation of As within rice plants was strongly associated with such soil properties such as silicon, phosphorus, organic matter, pH, and clay content. Understanding the factors and mechanisms controlling As uptake is important to develop mitigation measures that can reduce the amount of As accumulated in rice grains produced on contaminated soils. PMID:25251438

  2. Possible open-system (hydraulic) pingos in and around the Argyre impact region of Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soare, R. J.; Conway, S. J.; Dohm, J. M.; El-Maarry, M. R.

    2014-07-01

    We report the observation of possible (hydraulic) open-system pingos (OSPs) at the mid latitudes (∼37°S) in and around the Argyre impact-basin. OSPs are perennial (water)-ice cored mounds; they originate and evolve in periglacial and pro-glacial landscapes on Earth where intra- or sub-permafrost water under hydraulic/artesian pressure uplifts localised sections of surface or near-surface permafrost that then freezes in-situ. We invoke three lines of evidence in support of our analogue-based interpretation: (1) similarities of shape, size and summit traits between terrestrial OSPs and the Martian mounds; (2) clustered distribution and the slope-side location of the mounds, consistent with terrestrial permafrost-environments where OSPs are found; and, (3) spatially-associated landforms putatively indicative of periglacial and glacial processes on Mars that characterise OSP landscapes on Earth. This article presents five OSP candidate-locations and nests these mound locations within a new geological map of the Argyre impact-basin and margins. It also presents three periglacial hypotheses about the possible origin of the water required to develop the mounds. Alternative (non-periglacial) formation-hypotheses also are considered; however, we show that their robustness is not equal to that of the periglacial ones.

  3. The impact of acclimatization on thermophysiological strain for contrasting regional climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Freitas, C. R.; Grigorieva, E. A.

    2014-12-01

    During acclimatization to heat and cold, the body experiences additional thermally induced physiological strain. The first signs show up in the respiratory organs because respiration is a continuous heat exchange process in which the body is in closest contact with the ambient air. There are no behavioral or other adjustments to prevent the ambient air from entering into the body's core area through the respiratory tract. The Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI) describes the acclimatization thermal loading (ATL) on respiratory organs until full adaptation is achieved. The aim here is to further assess the ATSI scheme using a range of actual but contrasting bioclimatic conditions. To simulate ATL, scenarios of the consequences of acclimatization due to movement to or from five contrasting climates are used. The results show that adjusting to cold comes with greater physiological strain than adjusting to heat, the biggest impact occurring for a change of location from hot-humid to cold-dry climatic conditions. The approach can be used to assess risks due to increases in short-term thermal variability in weather conditions such as encountered during heat waves and cold snaps. The information could also be useful for assessing the need for public health services and measures that might be used to help mitigate impacts.