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The paper presents the evolution of concepts, an overview of research and applications pertaining to reliability in construction production, the use of reserves, robust itineraries, and contingency of time and cost. It describes areas of management advisory systems in relation to the cycle of risk analysis. The article also presents the main trends in different approaches to riskmanagement in
Zenonas Turskis; Marcin Gajzler; Agnieszka Dziadosz
Where there is a significant actuarial basis for decision making (e.g., the occurrence of fires in single-family dwellings), there is little incentive for formal riskmanagement. Formal risk assessments are most useful in those cases where the value of the structure is high, many people may be affected, the societal perception of risk is high, consequences of a mishap would be severe, and the actuarial uncertainty is large. For these cases, there is little opportunity to obtain the necessary experiential data to make informed decisions, and the consequences in terms of money, lives, and societal confidence are severe enough to warrant a formal risk assessment. Other important factors include the symbolic value of the structure and vulnerability to single point failures. It is unlikely that formal riskmanagement and assessment practices will or should replace the proven institutions of building codes and engineering practices. Nevertheless, formal risk assessment can provide valuable insights into the hazards threatening high-value and high-risk (perceived or actual) buildings and structures, which can in turn be translated into improved public health, safety, and security. The key is to choose and apply the right assessment tool to match the structure in question. Design-for-reliability concepts can be applied to buildings, bridges, transportation sys- tems, dams, and other structures. The use of these concepts could have the dual benefits of lowering life-cycle costs by reducing the necessity for maintenance and repair and of enhancing the saiiety and security of the structure's users.
Berry, Dennis L.; Cranwell, Robert M.; Hunter, Regina L.
In competitive electricity markets, the vertically integrated utilities that were responsible for ensuring system reliability in their own service territories, or groups of territories, often cease to exist. Typically, the burden falls to an independent system operator (ISO) to insure that enough ancillary services (AS) are available for safe, stable, and reliable operation of the grid, typically defined, in part, as compliance with officially approved engineering specifications for minimum levels of AS. In order to characterize the behavior of market participants (generators, retailers, and an ISO) in a competitive electricity market with reliability requirements, we model a spot market for electricity and futures markets for both electricity and AS. By assuming that each participant seeks to maximize its expected utility of wealth and that all markets clear, we solve for the optional quantities of electricity and AS traded in each market by all participants, as well as the corresponding market-clearing prices. We show that future prices for both electricity and AS depend on expectations of the spot price, statistical aspects of system demand, and production cost parameters. More important, our model captures the fact that electricity and AS are substitute products for the generators, implying that anticipated changes in the spot market will affect the equilibrium futures positions of both electricity and AS. We apply our model to the California electricity and AS markets to test its viability.
This chapter of "Principles of School Business Management" presents an overview of riskmanagement for school districts. The chapter first discusses four fundamental elements of riskmanagement: (1) identifying and measuring risks; (2) reducing or eliminating risks; (3) transferring unassumable risks; and (4) assuming remaining risks. The chapter…
We present a simple, but powerful framework for software riskmanagement. The framework synthe- sizes, refines, and extends current approaches to manag- ing software risks. We illustrate its usefulness through an empirical analysis of two software development episodes involving high risks. The framework can be used as an analytical device to evaluate and improve riskmanage- ment approaches and as
Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in riskmanagement to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when riskmanagement strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four riskmanagement strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A riskmanagement accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided. PMID:21314051
Medical devices are required to be safe and effective before they are commercially marketed. However, there have been reports of adverse events, even deaths, due to unforeseen design efforts. How can biomedical engineers minimize potential hazards to users and operators? Riskmanagement is an essential engineering skill that all biomedical engineers should understand and use aggressively. Riskmanagement is the
A “ high level” , deductive-reasoning-based (“ holistic” ), approach is aimed at the direct analysis of the behavior of a system as a whole, rather than with an attempt to understand the system's behavior by conducting first a “ low level” , inductive-reasoning-based, analysis of the behavior and the contributions of the system's elements. The holistic view on treatment is widely accepted in medical practice, and “ holistic health” concept upholds that all the aspects of people's needs (psychological, physical or social), should be seen as a whole, and that a disease is caused by the combined effect of physical, emotional, spiritual, social and environmental imbalances. Holistic reasoning is applied in our analysis to model the behavior of engineering products (“ species” ) subjected to various economic, marketing, and reliability “ health” factors. Vehicular products (cars, aircraft, boats, etc.), e.g., might be still robust enough, but could be out-of-date, or functionally obsolete, or their further use might be viewed as unjustifiably expensive. High-level-performance functions (HLPF) are the essential feature of the approach. HLPFs are, in effect, “ signatures” of the “ species” of interest. The HLPFs describe, in a “ holistic” , and certainly in a probabilistic, way, numerous complex multi-dependable relations among the representatives of the “ species” under consideration. ; umerous inter-related “ stresses” , both actual (“ physical” ) and nonphysical, which affect the probabilistic predictions are inherently being taken into account by the HLPFs. There is no need, and might even be counter-productive, to conduct tedious, time- and labor-consuming experimentations and to invest significant amount of time and resources to accumulate “ representative statistics” to predict - he governing probabilistic characteristics of the system behavior, such as, e.g., life expectancy of a particular type of products. “ Species” of military aircraft, commercial aircraft and private cars have been chosen in our analysis as illustrations of the fruitfulness of the “ holistic” approach. The obtained data show that both commercial “ species” exhibit similar “ survival dynamics” in compare with those of the military species of aircraft: lifetime distributions were found to be Weibull distributions for all “ species” however for commercial vehicles, the shape parameters were a little higher than 2, and scale parameters were 19.8 years (aircraft) and 21.7 (cars) whereas for military aircraft, the shape parameters were much higher and the mean time to failure much longer. The difference between the lifetime characteristics of the “ species” can be attributed to the differences in the social, operational, economic and safety-and-reliability requirements and constraints. The obtained information can be used to make tentative predictions for the most likely trends in the given field of vehicular technology. The following major conclusions can be drawn from our analysis: 1) The suggested concept based on the use of HLPFs reflects the current state and the general perceptions in the given field of engineering, including aerospace technologies, and allows for all the inherent and induced factors to be taken into account: any type of failures, usage profiles, economic factors, environmental conditions, etc. The concept requires only very general input data for the entire population. There is no need for the less available information about individual articles. 2) Failure modes are not restricted to the physical type of failures and include economic, cultural or social effects. All possible causes, which might lead to making a decision to terminate the use of a particular type
The intention of this report is to bring a developing and extremely useful statistical methodology to greater attention within the Safety, Reliability, and Quality Assurance Office of the NASA Johnson Space Center. The statistical methods in this exposition are found under the heading of attributable risk. Recently the Safety, Reliability, and Quality Assurance Office at the Johnson Space Center has supported efforts to introduce methods of medical research statistics dealing with the survivability of people to bear on the problems of aerospace that deal with the reliability of component hardware used in the NASA space program. This report, which describes several study designs for which attributable risk is used, is in concert with the latter goals. The report identifies areas of active research in attributable risk while briefly describing much of what has been developed in the theory of attributable risk. The report, which largely is a report on a report, attempts to recast the medical setting and language commonly found in descriptions of attributable risk into the setting and language of the space program and its component hardware.
Abstract?isk assessment is an essential process of every software riskmanagement plan. Several risk assessment techniques are based on the subjective judgement of domain experts. Subjective risk assessment techniques are human intensive and error-prone. Risk assessment should be based on product attributes that we can quantitatively measure using product metrics. This paper presents a methodology for reliabilityrisk assessment at
The risk to the development of program reliability is derived from the use of a new language and from the potential use of new storage management techniques. With Ada and associated support software, there is a lack of established guidelines and procedures, drawn from experience and common usage, which assume reliable behavior. The risk is identified and clarified. In order to provide a framework for future consideration of dynamic storage management on Ada, a description of the relevant aspects of the language is presented in two sections: Program data sources, and declaration and allocation in Ada. Storage-management characteristics of the Ada language and storage-management characteristics of Ada implementations are differentiated. Terms that are used are defined in a narrow and precise sense. The storage-management implications of the Ada language are described. The storage-management options available to the Ada implementor and the implications of the implementor's choice for the Ada programmer are also described.
Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of riskmanagement is necessary. Riskmanagement system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Riskmanagement should be used by all team members to managerisks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective riskmanagement. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of riskmanagement and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective riskmanagement implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.
Riskmanagement proactively assesses the potential risks and benefits of health care interventions, including both drugs and medical devices. Riskmanagement systematically identifies safety indications and establishes a riskmanagement strategy for potential adverse events. Professionals trained in riskmanagement have unique expertise in assessing the balance between risk and benefit. They play an important role in clinical study oversight
Jon Willem van der Velden; Eveline Jaquenoud Sirot
Phased-approach for implementation of riskmanagement is necessary. Riskmanagement system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Riskmanagement should be used by all team members to managerisks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective riskmanagement. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective riskmanagement implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.
We view riskmanagement as an integral part of good management. Riskmanagement should take a balanced view of decision problems encompassing all significant risks and rewards. Operational risks are only one type of risks and therefore are only one piece in the jigsaw puzzle that only makes sense when all pieces are assembled. All risk analyses are based on
Colleges and universities face a wide range of environmental risk. In spite of this, with proper planning, they can avoid emergencies or surprises. Advanced planning, coupled with strategic, technical environmental and legal advice, enable higher-education institutions to keep their environmental budgets under control and predictable. This article…
Continuous RiskManagement is a software engineering practice with processes, methods, and tools for managingrisks in a project. It provides a disciplined environment for proactive decision making to assess continuously what could go wrong (risks), deter...
A. J. Dorofee C. J. Alberts J. A. Walker R. L. Murphy R. P. Higuera
The increased need to manage California?s electricity grid in real time is a result of the ongoing transition from a system operated by vertically-integrated utilities serving native loads to one operated by an independent system operator supporting competitive energy markets. During this transition period, the traditional approach to reliabilitymanagement -- construction of new transmission lines -- has not been pursued due to unresolved issues related to the financing and recovery of transmission project costs. In the absence of investments in new transmission infrastructure, the best strategy for managingreliability is to equip system operators with better real-time information about actual operating margins so that they can better understand and manage the risk of operating closer to the edge. A companion strategy is to address known deficiencies in offline modeling tools that are needed to ground the use of improved real-time tools. This project: (1) developed and conducted first-ever demonstrations of two prototype real-time software tools for voltage security assessment and phasor monitoring; and (2) prepared a scoping study on improving load and generator response models. Additional funding through two separate subsequent work authorizations has already been provided to build upon the work initiated in this project.
This viewgraph presentation reviews the use of riskmanagement in Extravehicular Activities (EVA). The contents include: 1) EVA Office at NASA - JSC; 2) EVA Project RiskManagement: Why and When; 3) EVA Office RiskManagement: How; 4) Criteria for Closing a Risk; 5) Criteria for Accepting a Risk; 6) ISS IRMA Reference Card Data Entry Requirement s; 7) XA/ EVA Office Risk Activity Summary; 8) EVA Significant Change Summary; 9) Integrated RiskManagement Application (XA) Matrix, March 31, 2004; 10) ISS Watch Item: 50XX Summary Report; and 11) EVA Project RM Usefulness
This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency RiskManagement Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).
Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William
Schools cannot eliminate all risks but can manage them so they minimally affect the "bottom line." A sound risk-management program has four categories: risk avoidance, control, transfer, and retention. Schools retain some risk in situations when insurance is unavailable, costs are negligible, or loss probabilities are remote. (MLH)
Riskmanagement requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of
In this issue we publish the fourth part of professor Fantazzini’s consultation series on econometric analysis of financial data in riskmanagement. This time it deals with the topic of credit riskmanagement. After having described one-dimensional models of credit risk in the previous issue the author is analyzing multidimensional models which make it possible to assess the default probability
The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional riskmanagement is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…
Ask a college administrator about students and riskmanagement, and you're likely to get a quick and agitated speech about alcohol consumption and bad behavior or a meditation on mental health and campus safety. But in colleges and universities, we manage intellectual risk-taking too. Bring that up, and you'll probably get little out of that same…
Riskmanagement of human-technological systems has focused on strategic planning for prevention, mitigation, response and recovery activities. The growing availability and accessibility of advanced information and communications technologies provide the opportunity for operational riskmanagement (ORM). In this paper, the authors define ORM and summarize their research results as reported in their most recent book. This paper highlights the core
By adopting riskmanagement, savings potentials can be realized in construction projects. For this reason, for project managers as well as real estate developers, a consideration of the riskmanagement process is worthwhile. The riskmanagement process comprises 6 process steps, which will be discussed in greater detail below. The integration of a riskmanagement system in construction projects must
A formal method is described to quantify structural reliability and risk in the presence of a multitude of uncertainties. The method is based on the materials behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatters are used to describe that behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate those uncertainties to the structural scale where reliability and risk are usually specified. A sample case is described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from this method demonstrate that the method is mature and that it can be used for future strategic projections and planning to assure better, cheaper, faster products for competitive advantages in world markets. The results also indicate that the methods are suitable for predicting remaining life in aging or deteriorating structures.
The journal continues publishing the consultation of Professor Dean Fantazzini. In this issue econometric analysis of financial data in riskmanagement is discussed. Basic concepts of credit riskmanagement in the context of recent Basel-II agreement recommendations are introduced. One-dimensional models of credit risk for assessing the borrower’s default probability are described.In the second part, which would appear in the
This paper describes the use of a process simulator to support software project planning and management. The modeling approach here focuses on software reliability, but is just as applicable to other software quality factors, as well as to cost and schedule factors. The process simulator was developed as a part of a decision support system for assisting project managers in
Managing banks' operational risks in Basle II regulations must take into account dicult-to-quanti fy risk types, and environmental & control parameters. This paper proposes such an ad-hoc framework for optimizing investments in risk reduction strategies. Derivation of the result- ing Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman integro-variational equation is discussed, including approximations for Risk representation and heuristic methods of solving from automated (supervised\\/reinforced) learn- ing.
The rapid pace of change at Ike end of the 20th Century should continue unabated well into the 21st Century. The driver will be the marketplace imperative of "faster, better, cheaper." This imperative has already stimulated a revolution-in-engineering in design and manufacturing. In contrast, to date, reliability engineering has not undergone a similar level of change. It is critical that we implement a corresponding revolution-in-reliability-engineering as we enter the new millennium. If we are still using 20th Century reliability approaches in the 21st Century, then reliability issues will be the limiting factor in faster, better, and cheaper. At the heart of this reliability revolution will be a science-based approach to reliability engineering. Science-based reliability will enable building-in reliability, application-specific products, virtual qualification, and predictive maintenance. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate a dialogue on the future of reliability engineering. We will try to gaze into the crystal ball and predict some key issues that will drive reliability programs in the new millennium. In the 21st Century, we will demand more of our reliability programs. We will need the ability to make accurate reliability predictions that will enable optimizing cost, performance and time-to-market to meet the needs of every market segment. We will require that all of these new capabilities be in place prior to the stint of a product development cycle. The management of reliability programs will be driven by quantifiable metrics of value added to the organization business objectives.
Although most programs and organizations use riskmanagement when developing and operating software-reliant systems, preventable failures continue to occur at an alarming rate. In many instances, the root causes of these preventable failures can be traced...
Discusses risk-management planning from the perspectives of the current state of risk-management, assumption of risk defense, participant and public attitudes, and specific techniques for constructing a risk-management plan. Offers practical suggestions for limiting risk and liability. Provides sample assumption of risk/liability release form.…
Both, risk analysis and riskmanagement are a required for answering today's challenging construction project demands. The targeted result of combining risk analysis with riskmanagement is a successful project, which satisfies the expectations of its stakeholders. This paper aims to assist geotechnical professionals with extending from traditional risk analysis towards riskmanagement, by presenting some experiences and guidelines. These
Both risk analysis and riskmanagement are required for answering today's challenging construction project demands. The targeted result of combining risk analysis with riskmanagement is a successful project, which satisfies the expectations of its stakeholders. This paper aims to assist geotechnical professionals with extending from traditional risk analysis towards riskmanagement, by presenting some experiences and guidelines. These are
The purpose of the Programmatic RiskManagement System (PRMS) is to evaluate and manage potential risks associated with proposed projects (i.e., new products or processes, or possible research and technological development projects). Although the PRMS considers some technical aspects of risk, the primary focus of the methodology is programmatic risk. That is, the methodology permits an assessment of risks associated with such issues as the ability to successfully produce a product that performs in accordance with all customer requirements, and the availability and allocation of resources (money, equipment, facilities, skilled personnel). The PRMS process consists of five formalized activities that are essential for effective management of risks associated with proposed projects. These activities include risk assessment, development of appropriate risk mitigation strategies, estimating strategy implementation cost, ranking of risk mitigation strategies for resource allocation, and scheduling of strategy implementing. The PRMS utilizes a ranking system that allows the user to identify the most cost-effective investment of resources of minimizing risk.
Mahn, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wood, C.L. [Automated Solutions of Albuquerque, NM (United States)
\\u000a Credit riskmanagement is an important issue in banking. In this chapter we give an overview of the models for calculating\\u000a the default risk exposure of a credit portfolio. The primary goal of these models is to help credit analysts define whether\\u000a a loan should be issued, which risk premia is appropriate, and how much capital should be directed to
Jürgen Franke; Wolfgang Karl Härdle; Christian Matthias Hafner
A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the structural reliability and risk of select metallic and composite structures. The method is a multiscale, multifunctional and it is based on the most elemental level. A multifactor interaction model is used to describe the material properties which are subsequently evaluated probabilistically. The metallic structure is a two rotor aircraft engine, while the composite structures consist of laminated plies (multiscale) and the properties of each ply are the multifunctional representation. The structural component is modeled by finite element. The solution method for structural responses is obtained by an updated simulation scheme. The results show that the risk for the two rotor engine is about 0.0001 and the composite built-up structure is also 0.0001.
A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the structural reliability and risk of select metallic and composite structures. The method is a multiscale, multifunctional and it is based on the most elemental level. A multi-factor interaction model is used to describe the material properties which are subsequently evaluated probabilistically. The metallic structure is a two rotor aircraft engine, while the composite structures consist of laminated plies (multiscale) and the properties of each ply are the multifunctional representation. The structural component is modeled by finite element. The solution method for structural responses is obtained by an updated simulation scheme. The results show that the risk for the two rotor engine is about 0.0001 and the composite built-up structure is also 0.0001.
Malpractice is the responsible for the greatest number of legal claims. At the present time, legal actions against physicians in Italy are 15,000 per year, and a stunning increase about costs to refund patients injured by therapeutic and diagnostic errors is expected. The method for the medical prevention is "RiskManagement", that is the setting-up of organizational instruments, methods and actions that enable the measurement or estimation of medical risk; it allows to develop strategies to govern and reduce medical error. In the present work, the reconstruction about the history of riskmanagement in Italy was carried out. After then the latest initiatives undertaken by Italy about the issue of riskmanagement were examined. PMID:24091181
Messano, G A; Spaziani, E; Turchetta, F; Ceci, F; Corelli, S; Casciaro, G; Martellucci, A; Costantino, A; Napoleoni, A; Cipriani, B; Nicodemi, S; Di Grazia, C; Mosillo, R; Avallone, M; Orsini, S; Tudisco, A; Aiuti, F; Stagnitti, F
Summary Malpractice is the responsible for the greatest number of legal claims. At the present time, legal actions against physicians in Italy are 15,000 per year, and a stunning increase about costs to refund patients injured by therapeutic and diagnostic errors is expected. The method for the medical prevention is “RiskManagement”, that is the setting-up of organizational instruments, methods and actions that enable the measurement or estimation of medical risk; it allows to develop strategies to govern and reduce medical error. In the present work, the reconstruction about the history of riskmanagement in Italy was carried out. After then the latest initiatives undertaken by Italy about the issue of riskmanagement were examined.
Adaptation assessment methods are compatible with the international riskmanagement standard ISO:31000. Riskmanagement approaches are increasingly being recommended for adaptation assessments at both national and local levels. Two orientations to assessments can commonly be identified: top-down and bottom-up, and prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments. The choice of orientation can be related to uncertainties in prediction and taking action, in the type of adaptation and in the degree of system stress. Adopting multiple viewpoints is to be encouraged, especially in complex situations. The bulk of current guidance material is consistent with top-down and predictive approaches, thus is most suitable for risk scoping and identification. Abroad range ofmaterial fromwithin and beyond the climate change literature can be used to select methods to be used in assessing and implementing adaptation. The framing of risk, correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects of the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be addressed. The reorientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience, sustainable development and disaster risk, especially through a riskmanagement framework, can draw from existing policy and management understanding in communities, professions and agencies, incorporating existing agendas, knowledge, risks, and issues they already face.
The importance of riskmanagement in semiconductor industry is acknowledged by semiconductor industry. Riskmanagement department should be independent to any other department and reports directly to top management (president) in the company. The organization of riskmanagement should include (but not limit to) aspects of risk control, loss prevention, emergency response, insurance, industrial safety and health, environmental protection, medication,
This article identifies the major risks faced by young children in aquatic programs, outlines several methods for managingrisk factors, and discusses the steps involved in implementing a risk-management system. (IAH)
A methodology for riskmanagement in the design of software systems is presented. It spans security, safety, and correct operation of software within the context of its environment, and produces a risk analysis and documented riskmanagement strategy. It ...
Various NASA Langley Research Center and other center projects were attempted for analysis to obtain historical data comparing pre-phase A study and the final outcome for each project. This attempt, however, was abandoned once it became clear that very little documentation was available. Next, extensive literature search was conducted on the role of risk and reliability concepts in project management. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are being used with increasing regularity both in and outside of NASA. The value and the usage of PRA techniques were reviewed for large projects. It was found that both civilian and military branches of the space industry have traditionally refrained from using PRA, which was developed and expanded by nuclear industry. Although much has changed with the end of the cold war and the Challenger disaster, it was found that ingrained anti-PRA culture is hard to stop. Examples of skepticism against the use of riskmanagement and assessment techniques were found both in the literature and in conversations with some technical staff. Program and project managers need to be convinced that the applicability and use of riskmanagement and risk assessment techniques is much broader than just in the traditional safety-related areas of application. The time has come to begin to uniformly apply these techniques. The whole idea of risk-based system can maximize the 'return on investment' that the public demands. Also, it would be very useful if all project documents of NASA Langley Research Center, pre-phase A through final report, are carefully stored in a central repository preferably in electronic format.
Software riskmanagement is important because it helps avoid disasters, rework, and overkill, but more importantly because it stimulates win-win situations. The objectives of software riskmanagement are to identify, address, and eliminate software risk items before they become threats to success or major sources of rework. In general, good project managers are also good managers of risk. It makes good business sense for all software development projects to incorporate riskmanagement as part of project management. The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for riskmanagement that provides information on how to implement riskmanagement. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This is an introductory tutorial to continuous riskmanagement based on this course. The rational for continuous riskmanagement and how it is incorporated into project management are discussed. The riskmanagement structure of six functions is discussed in sufficient depth for managers to understand what is involved in riskmanagement and how it is implemented. These functions include: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.
Riskmanagement has been established as a well defined procedure for handling risks due to natural, environmental or man made hazards, of which floods are representative. Riskmanagement has been discussed in many previous papers giving different meanings to the term—a result of the fact that riskmanagement actually takes place on three different levels of actions: the operational level,
Most organizations manage computer security risk reactively by investing in technologies designed to protect against known system vulnerabilities and monitor intrusions as they occur. However, firewalls, cryptography, and antivirus protection address the symptoms, not the root cause, of most security problems. Buying and maintaining a firewall, for example, is ineffective if external users can access remotely exploitable Internet-enabled applications through
In this paper, program riskmanagement as applied to the Navigator Program: In Search of New Worlds will be discussed. The Navigator Program's goals are to learn how planetary systems form and to search for those worlds that could or do harbor life.
This doctrine, RiskManagement Fundamentals, serves as an authoritative statement regarding the principles and process of homeland security riskmanagement and what they mean to homeland security planning and execution. It is intended as the capstone doct...
Most independent power financial proposals contain one or more elements of a non-recourse nature. Traditionally, this means prospective lenders will not have a substantial corporate credit or state guarantee standing behind a project loan, which forces attention to be focused on a single asset as the security and debt repayment source. While this major risk remains present, if properly understood, uncertainty can be mitigated and managed, including financial and development hazards inherent in hydropower projects. The specific risk points that a project developer or sponsor must satisfy from the lender`s purposes are numerous. However, they can be grouped primarily into seven key risk areas: project profile, site securing, power sales agreements, government agreements, in-service management, construction and insurance. While a developer strives for a minimum internal rate of return of at least 20 percent, the lender`s expectations are much more modest. Often, developers need to place themselves in the proverbial shoes of the other entity, namely the independent lender, whose only attraction may be some interest, fee income and placement of capital in a safe investment which provides a return in an orderly and uninterrupted manner. Only then is it possible to objectively view and effectively manage the risks mentioned earlier.
Ball, C.J. [Corpfinance International Ltd., Toronto (Canada)
Risk is inherent in every walk of life. Banks are, by definition, in the business of taking and managingrisk. The paper deals with the study of Risks associated with commercial banks like risk revolving on capital, credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, earnings risk, business strategy risk, environmental risk, operational risk, group risk, internal control risk, organizational risk, management
Riskmanagement of nanotechnology is challenged by the enormous uncertainties about the risks, benefits, properties, and future\\u000a direction of nanotechnology applications. Because of these uncertainties, traditional riskmanagement principles such as acceptable\\u000a risk, cost–benefit analysis, and feasibility are unworkable, as is the newest riskmanagement principle, the precautionary\\u000a principle. Yet, simply waiting for these uncertainties to be resolved before undertaking
Gary E. Marchant; Douglas J. Sylvester; Kenneth W. Abbott
This document includes a course plan for Continuous RiskManagement taught by the Software Assurance Technology Center along with the Continuous RiskManagement Guidebook of the Software Engineering Institute of Carnegie Mellon University and a description of Continuous RiskManagement at NASA.
Governments need to manage their contingent liabilities and other off-budget sources of fiscal risk - through policy, the budgetary process, and an integrated asset and liability management strategy.To understand the fiscal position of a country, contingent liabilities and other sources of fiscal risk need to be considered. Brixi, Shatalov, and Zlaoui develop a framework to assess and manage fiscal risk
Hana Polackova Brixi; Sergei Shatalov; Leila Zlaoui
This is the first riskmanagement publication for school administrators that attempts to be comprehensive by addressing all potential areas of risk to school districts and offering specific guidelines on how to manage those areas. Chapter 1 gives directions on how to use the manual. Chapter 2 contains a complete overview of riskmanagement,…
The overall objectives of a research project were to: determine distribution reliability assessment methods currently used by the industry; develop a general outage reporting scheme suitable for a wide variety of distributing utilities (reliability model); develop a model for predicting the reliability of future system configurations (risk model); and compile a handbook of reliability assessment methods designed specifically for use by the practicing distribution engineer. Emphasis was placed on compiling and organizing reliability assessment techniques presently used by the industry. The project examined reliability evaluation from two perspectives: historical and predictive assessment. Two reliability assessment models, HISRAM - the historical reliability assessment model and PRAM - the predictive reliability assessment model were developed. Each model was tested in a utility environment by the Duquesne Light Company and the Public Service Electric and Gas Company of New Jersey. A survey of 56 diverse utilities served as a basis for examining current distribution reliability assessment practices in the electric power industry.
Northcote-Green, J. E. D.; Vismor, T. D.; Brooks, C. L.
This paper describes the inter-rater reliability of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (SARN, formerly known as Structured Risk Assessment). The SARN is a structured framework for identifying sexual offenders’ dynamic risk factors. The SARN comprises 16 dynamic risk factors, categorized into four domains: Sexual Interests, Distorted Attitudes, Socio-Affective Functioning and Self-Management. Two studies, utilizing three samples, are reported.
Stephen D. Webster; Ruth E. Mann; Adam J. Carter; Julia Long; Rebecca J. Milner; Matt D. OBrien; Helen C. Wakeling; Nicola L. Ray
Program Managers (PM) can protect program resources and improve chances of success by anticipating, understanding and managingrisks. Understanding the range of potential risks helps one to avoid or manage the risks. A PM must choose which risks to accept to reduce fire fighting, must meet the expectations of stakeholders consistently, and avoid falling into costly "black holes" that may open. A good riskmanagement process provides the PM more confidence to seize opportunities save money, meet schedule, even improve relationships with people important to the program. Evidence of managingrisk and sound internal controls can mean better support from superiors for the program by building a trust and reputation from being on top of issues. Riskmanagers have an obligation to provide the PM with the best information possible to allow the benefits to be realized (Small Business Consortium, 2004). The Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales sees very important benefits for companies in providing better information about what they do to assess and manage key business risks. Such information will: a) provide practical forward-looking information; b) reduce the cost of capital; c) encourage better riskmanagement; and d) improve accountability for stewardship, investor protection and the usefulness of financial reporting. We are particularly convinced that enhanced risk reporting will help listed companies obtain capital at the lowest possible cost (The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England &Wales, June 2002). Riskmanagers can take a significant role in quantifying the success of their department and communicating those figures to executive (program) management levels while pushing for a broader riskmanagement role. Overall, riskmanagers must show that riskmanagement work matters in the most crucial place-the bottom line- as they prove riskmanagement can be a profit center (Sullivan, 2004).
In a time of shrinking resources policy makers and administrators in Child Protective Services are increasingly turning to tools such as structured risk assessment to manage service demand. The reliability and predictive validity of risk assessment is questionable, however, and concerns continue about the validity of using lists of explicit criteria in protective services decision-making. In this research the issues
Information Technology (IT) Security RiskManagement is a critical task for the organization to protect against the loss of confidentiality, integrity and availability of IT resources. As systems bgecome more complex and diverse and and attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security risk. This paper describes a two-pronged approach in addressing IT security risk and riskmanagement in the organization: 1) an institutional enterprise appraoch, and 2) a project life cycle approach.
Clinical laboratory tests play an integral role in medical decision-making and as such must be reliable and accurate. Unfortunately, no laboratory tests or devices are foolproof and errors can occur at pre-analytical, analytical and post-analytical phases of testing. Evaluating possible conditions that could lead to errors and outlining the necessary steps to detect and prevent errors before they cause patient harm is therefore an important part of laboratory testing. This can be achieved through the practice of riskmanagement. EP23-A is a new guideline from the CLSI that introduces riskmanagement principles to the clinical laboratory. This guideline borrows concepts from the manufacturing industry and encourages laboratories to develop riskmanagement plans that address the specific risks inherent to each lab. Once the risks have been identified, the laboratory must implement control processes and continuously monitor and modify them to make certain that risk is maintained at a clinically acceptable level. This review summarizes the principles of riskmanagement in the clinical laboratory and describes various quality control activities employed by the laboratory to achieve the goal of reporting valid, accurate and reliable test results.
Discusses what facilities management leaders can do to ensure the safety of students and employees. Focuses on six specific tasks, such as detecting hazards and assessing the risks, and offers three rules underlying the application of riskmanagement, including do not accept unnecessary risk. Provides an outline of prevention responsibilities.…
The authors describe how NASA appears to be undergoing a paradigm shift in its approach to Space Shuttle riskmanagement. At least in some quarters, there appears to be a recognition that advances in the state-of-the-art have now made quantitative risk assessments powerful riskmanagement tools, especially for programs such as the Shuttle with its ever increasing flight and test
In developed nations, the workforce is aging rapidly. That trend has serious implications. Companies could face severe labor shortages in a few years as workers retire, taking critical knowledge with them. Businesses may also see productivity decline among older employees, especially in physically demanding jobs. The authors, partners at Boston Consulting Group, offer managers a systematic way to assess these dual threats--capacity risk and productivity risk--at their companies. It involves studying the age distribution of their employees to see if large percentages fall within high age brackets and then projecting--by location, unit, and job category--how the distribution will change over the next 15 years. Managers must also factor in both the impact of strategic moves on personnel needs and the future supply of workers in the market. When RWE Power analyzed its trends, the company learned that in 2018 almost 80% of its workers would be over 50. What's more, in certain critical areas its labor surplus was about to become a sizable shortfall. For instance, a shortage of specialized engineers would develop in the company just as their ranks in the job market thinned and competition to hire them intensified. Reversing its downsizing course, RWE Power took steps to increase its supply of workers in those key positions. The authors show how companies that face talent gaps, as RWE Power did, can close them through training, transfers, recruitment, retention, productivity improvements, and outsourcing. They also describe measures that companies can take to keep older workers productive, including workplace accommodations, revised compensation structures, performance incentives, and targeted health care management. The key is to identify and address potential problems early. Firms that do so will gain an edge on rivals that are still relentlessly focused on reducing head count. PMID:18314640
This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero
manaOptimizing risk to information to protect the enterprise as well as to satisfy government and industry mandates is a core function of most information security departments. Riskmanagement is the discipline that is focused on assessing, mitigating, monitoring and optimizing risks to information. Risk assessments and analyses are critical…
This paper summarizes the intermediate lessons learned from the analyses of the riskmanagement problems in three technological endeavors. These problems are: the absence of a structure for rewarding successful project riskmanagement; the need for an ever-more accurate economic measure of risk; and the difficulty of transferring risks to contract-bound independent outsourcing entity. This paper also describes recent advancement towards providing answers to these challenges and future research endeavors in this field.
Sandia National Laboratories has assembled an interdisciplinary team to explore the applicability of probabilistic logic modeling (PLM) techniques to model network reliability for a wide variety of communications network architectures. The authors have found that the reliability and failure modes of current generation network technologies can be effectively modeled using fault tree PLM techniques. They have developed a ``plug-and-play`` fault tree analysis methodology that can be used to model connectivity and the provision of network services in a wide variety of current generation network architectures. They have also developed an efficient search algorithm that can be used to determine the minimal cut sets of an arbitrarily-interconnected (non-hierarchical) network without the construction of a fault tree model. This paper provides an overview of these modeling techniques and describes how they are applied to networks that exhibit hybrid network structures (i.e., a network in which some areas are hierarchical and some areas are not hierarchical).
This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed.
NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply riskmanagement principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for riskmanagement that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for riskmanagement: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions. This riskmanagement structure of functions has been taught to projects at all NASA Centers and is being successfully implemented on many projects. This presentation will give project managers the information they need to understand if riskmanagement is to be effectively implemented on their projects at a cost they can afford.
To facilitate the implementation of the RiskManagement Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP RiskManagement System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the RiskManagement Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.
Reservoir systems are subject to several uncertainties that are the result of imperfect knowledge about system behavior and inputs. A major source of uncertainty is the inability to precisely predict future inflows, especially as the management horizon increases. Fortunately, there often exists enough information from historical records and/or hydroclimatic models to generate probabilistic forecasts of inflow volumes in the form of probability density functions or ensembles. These inflow forecasts can be coupled with stochastic management models to help operate reservoir systems and provide stakeholders with probabilistic forecasts of system variables, such as reservoir storages, releases, hydropower production, water withdrawals, and water quality parameters. It is important for forecasts to provide dependable descriptions of the actual system variables that eventually occur since consistently misrepresenting these variables will provide inadequate or misleading information about expected benefits and risks. The first part of this study presents an assessment technique that can be used to determine the reliability of one and multi-dimensional ensemble forecasts through the use of relative frequency histograms and minimum spanning trees (MST). The technique is then used to assess the extended Gaussian linear quadrature (ELQG) management model and determine its ability to produce reliable ensemble forecast of reservoir system variables. Extensions of the existing model are discussed and evaluated. The second portion of this study concerns the management of the uncertainty distribution across a reservoir system. The large majority of stochastic management models only consider optimizing the expected benefits, thereby not allowing operators and stakeholders to explicitly choose or explore issues such as variable variability and risk avoidance. An iterative framework that allows stakeholders to trade-off risks and uncertainties is developed by using objective function reformulations that constrain variable variances. This framework can be used to derive different management policies that produce desired probabilistic behaviors of the entire reservoir system or its individual sub-components and objectives. The methods developed in this study are illustrated on real reservoir systems including a 7-reservoir multi-objective system in California's Central Valley.
Knowledge management effectively lends itself to the enterprise risk process. The authors introduce the concept of knowledge management as a strategy to drive innovation and support riskmanagement. They align this work with organizational efforts to improve patient safety and quality through the effective sharing of experience and lessons learned. The article closes with suggestions on how to develop a knowledge management initiative at an organization, who should be on the team, and how to sustain this effort and build the culture it requires to drive success. PMID:21506198
Abstract. Information Technology (IT) Security RiskManagement is a critical task for the organization to protect against the loss of confidentiality,integrity, and availability of IT resources. As systems become more complex and diverse and attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security risk. This paper describes a two-pronged approach in addressing IT
We take up the question of potential conflicts between the objectives of riskmanagement policies and those connected with maximization of the firm's value. This question is a timely one, since many firms have a special committee devoted to riskmanagement, banks and insurance companies in particular. In the wake of the Enron affair, various proposals have been formulated regarding
Concerning about the risks and the current situation of management afterwards in air traffic services management system(here in after called ATSMS), the thesis probes into prevention in advance model of ATSMS security riskmanagement using the theory of early warning management and safety riskmanagement, based on which it draws up the structure and organization of ATSMS security riskmanagement
This presentation sets the context by providing basic statistics and considers some of the main preoccupations over the last decade which include the growth of numbers of women in prison, concern for the vulnerability of women offenders, recognition of gender-specific needs and diversion from custody. Managing women in prison involved understanding the pathways to offending, resettlement needs and risks; and the "connecting threads of life history" on the pathway to offending were described. Understanding risk meant being concerned about risk of harm to self as well as to others, intergenerational risk, as well as risk of re-offending. Options for addressing these needs and risks were discussed. PMID:22761358
Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. PMID:21819846
The purpose of this study was to establish the interrater reliability and face validity of the Postepidural Fall Risk Assessment Score instrument for the obstetric patient. The sample consisted of 207 healthy mothers at an inner-city level 1 trauma center. Kappa coefficients ranged from 0.54 to 0.83. Face validity of the tool was determined by participating nurses (n = 25). Results indicated that the tool was reliable and required modification to increase face validity. PMID:24375109
Presents planning and evaluation as management tools that can reduce organizational trauma caused by external change pressures. Suggests that top management be directly involved in planning and evaluation. Lists eight characteristics of a sound organizational plan and cautions about five management areas requiring careful monitoring during periods…
It is important issue for the study of method of the project risk assessment. The quantitative method is used to resolve construction project risk assessment in this paper. Firstly, the study of project riskmanagement and risk assessment is made a review. Secondly, the project riskmanagement systematic framework is constructed, which include five purchases: risk identification, risk assessment, risk
Topics presented include lessons learned from man-made catastrophes, airline industry safety management systems and feedback, an integrated approach to safety, including the human factors element, and risk sensitivity to human error. Also presented are human reliability methods for enhancing performance, the integrated use of probabilistic safety assessment in reactor design, risk-based plant performance indicators, and a framework for systematic riskmanagement.
Knief, Ronald A.; Briant, Victoria B.; Lee, Robert B.; Long, Robert L.; Mahn, Jeffrey A.
Purpose: To assess the test-retest reliability of the 1999 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) questionnaire.Methods: A sample of 4619 male and female high school students from white, black, Hispanic, and other racial\\/ethnic groups completed the YRBS questionnaire on two occasions approximately two weeks apart. The questionnaire assesses a broad range of health risk behaviors. This study used a protocol that
Nancy D Brener; Laura Kann; Tim McManus; Steven A Kinchen; Elizabeth C Sundberg; James G Ross
One of the most important aspects of applying the Team Software Process (TSPSM) to software projects of any size is the increased success of identifying, tracking, and mitigating risk. The Mission Planning Software Section of the Software Engineering Divi...
Clearly, there is sufficient motivation from Washington for the Hanford community to pay particular attention to the risks associated with the substantial volumes of radiological, hazardous, and mixed waste at Hanford. But there is also another reason for...
Thousands of safety issues have been collected on-line at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) as part of the Issue Management Plan. However, there has been no established approach to prioritize collected and future issues. The authors developed a methodology, based on hazards assessment, to identify and risk rank over 5000 safety issues collected at INEEL. This approach required that it was easily applied and understandable for site adaptation and commensurate with the Integrated Safety Plan. High-risk issues were investigated and mitigative/preventive measures were suggested and ranked based on a cost-benefit scheme to provide risk-informed safety measures. This methodology was consistent with other integrated safety management goals and tasks providing a site-wide risk informed decision tool to reduce hazardous conditions and focus resources on high-risk safety issues. As part of the issue management plan, this methodology was incorporated at the issue collection level and training was provided to management to better familiarize decision-makers with concepts of safety and risk. This prioritization methodology and issue dissemination procedure will be discussed. Results of issue prioritization and training efforts will be summarized. Difficulties and advantages of the process will be reported. Development and incorporation of this process into INEELs lessons learned reporting and the site-wide integrated safety management program will be shown with an emphasis on establishing self reliance and ownership of safety issues.
Novack, Steven David; Marshall, Frances Mc Clellan; Stromberg, Howard Merion; Grant, Gary Michael
Thousands of safety issues have been collected on-line at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) as part of the Issue Management Plan. However, there has been no established approach to prioritize collected and future issues. The authors developed a methodology, based on hazards assessment, to identify and risk rank over 5000 safety issues collected at INEEL. This approach required that it was easily applied and understandable for site adaptation and commensurate with the Integrated Safety Plan. High-risk issues were investigated and mitigative/preventive measures were suggested and ranked based on a cost-benefit scheme to provide risk-informed safety measures. This methodology was consistent with other integrated safety management goals and tasks providing a site-wide risk-informed decision tool to reduce hazardous conditions and focus resources on high-risk safety issues. As part of the issue management plan, this methodology was incorporated at the issue collection level and training was provided to management to better familiarize decision-makers with concepts of safety and risk. This prioritization methodology and issue dissemination procedure will be discussed. Results of issue prioritization and training efforts will be summarized. Difficulties and advantages of the process will be reported. Development and incorporation of this process into INEEL's lessons learned reporting and the site-wide integrated safety management program will be shown with an emphasis on establishing self reliance and ownership of safety issues.
F. M. Marshall; G. M. Grant; H. M. Stromberg; S. D. Novack
The U.S. Air Force's Software Technology Support Center offers an updated and condensed version of the 'Guidelines for Successful Acquisition and Management of Software-Intensive Systems' (GSAM) on its Web site.
Advanced probability models are used to evaluate risks and to justify decisions where reliable data is available, e.g. reinsurance, money markets and nuclear energy. Operational riskmanagement – the trade-offs made to run an efficient and effective organisation – has much less, and lower quality, data. In the first part of the paper, observations are made about the factors shaping
The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a relatively new structured professional judgment guide for the assessment and management of short-term risks associated with mental, substance use, and personality disorders. The scheme may be distinguished from other violence risk instruments because of its inclusion of 20 dynamic factors that are rated in terms of both vulnerability and strength. This study examined the reliability and validity of START assessments in predicting inpatient aggression. Research assistants completed START assessments for 120 male forensic psychiatric patients through review of hospital files. They additionally completed Historical-Clinical-RiskManagement – 20 (HCR-20) and the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) assessments. Outcome data was coded from hospital files for a 12-month follow-up period using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). START assessments evidenced excellent interrater reliability and demonstrated both predictive and incremental validity over the HCR-20 Historical subscale scores and PCL:SV total scores. Overall, results support the reliability and validity of START assessments, and use of the structured professional judgment approach more broadly, as well as the value of using dynamic risk and protective factors to assess violence risk.
Desmarais, Sarah L.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Wilson, Catherine M.; Brink, Johann
Purpose – This paper aims to present an augmented subjective riskmanagement process that can partially solve the problem of inconsistent results in qualitative riskmanagement. Note that “subjective” in this context is to separate this riskmanagement process from the purely statistical riskmanagement processes often associated with finance. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The approach has been developed by logically approaching
The New Basel Capital Accord presents a framework for measuring operational risk which includes four degrees of complexity. In this paper we focus on a mathematical description of the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA), being the more rigorous and potentially more accurate approach towards which most (advanced) institutions will be striving. In particular the aim of this paper is to show
ABSTRACT While management ,and ,engineering ,actions have ,a significant ,impact ,on process reliability, these factors have received too little attention in calculating plant risks. In this work, the focus is on understanding and modeling the influence of human behavior patterns on plant safety in two settings. The first, introduced in Part I, involves a framework to estimate the impacts of
The objective of bridge management is to allocate and use the limited resources to balance lifetime reliability and life-cycle cost in an optimal manner. As the 20th century has drawn to a close, it is appropriate to reflect on the birth and growth of bridge management systems, to examine where they are today, and to predict their future. In this
Dan M. Frangopol; Jung S. Kong; Emhaidy S. Gharaibeh
Summarizes risk-management research in categories of practical relevance to outdoor recreation stakeholders and the research community: conceptualization of risk; risk/benefit studies; risk monitoring; riskmanagement in organizations and programs (identification, evaluation, control, planning, evaluation); legal issues; and risk communication.…
The objective of ICH Q8, Q9 and Q10 documents is application of systemic and science based approach to formulation development for building quality into product. There is always some uncertainty in new product development. Good riskmanagement practice is essential for success of new product development in decreasing this uncertainty. In quality by design paradigm, the product performance properties relevant to the patient are predefined in target product profile (TPP). Together with prior knowledge and experience, TPP helps in identification of critical quality attributes (CQA's). Initial risk assessment which identifies risks to these CQA's provides impetus for product development. Product and process are designed to gain knowledge about these risks, devise strategies to eliminate or mitigate these risks and meet objectives set in TPP. By laying more emphasis on high risk events the protection level of patient is increased. The process being scientifically driven improves the transparency and reliability of the manufacturer. The focus on risk to the patient together with flexible development approach saves invaluable resources, increases confidence on quality and reduces compliance risk. The knowledge acquired in analysing risks to CQA's permits construction of meaningful design space. Within the boundaries of the design space, variation in critical material characteristics and process parameters must be managed in order to yield a product having the desired characteristics. Specifications based on product and process understanding are established such that product will meet the specifications if tested. In this way, the product is amenable to real time release, since specifications only confirm quality but they do not serve as a means of effective process control. PMID:22757979
In distributed workflow management systems (WfMSs) many workflow servers and clients should work together cooperatively using client\\/server communication. Depending on the communication partners, different characteristics are required for a client\\/server interaction. In this paper we introduce a middleware service for WfMSs which supports client\\/server interaction qualities. These qualities characterize the behavior of client and server in case of failure and
The swift pace of medical practice today makes it imperative for physicians to carry a toolbox jam-packed with riskmanagement principles. The toolbox must be overflowing with utensils that allow a complete execution of the physician's fiduciary responsibility to the patient: all-inclusive informed consent, comprehensive documentation, fulfilling the standard of care, the significance of second opinions, transparency, crisis-management skills, and how to discuss an unfortunate result/outcome. PMID:24696957
The paper describes, on the basis of a questionnaire survey of general contractors and project management practices, the construction industry's perception of risk associated with its activities and the extent to which the industry uses risk analysis and management techniques. It concludes that riskmanagement is essential to construction activities in minimizing losses and enhancing profitability. Construction risk is generally
There has been an increase in research on riskmanagement practice in the construction industry. However, little research has been conducted to systematically investigate the overall aspects of riskmanagement on the perspectives of various project participants. This paper reports the findings of an empirical Chinese industry survey on the importance of project risks, application of riskmanagement techniques, status
Wenzhe Tang; Maoshan Qiang; Colin F. Duffield; David M. Young; Youmei Lu
This paper discusses subjective hazards in wilderness activities and suggests means of assessing and managing related risks. Wilderness educators conveniently group hazards into objective and subjective ones. Objective hazards such as rockfall, moving water, and weather, while not necessarily predictable, are visible and understandable. Subjective…
The selection of climate policies should be an exercise in riskmanagement reflecting the many relevant sources of uncertainty. Studies of climate change and its impacts rarely yield consensus on the distribution of exposure, vulnerability or possible outcomes. Hence policy analysis cannot effectively evaluate alternatives using standard approaches, such as expected utility theory and benefit-cost analysis. This Perspective highlights the value of robust decision-making tools designed for situations such as evaluating climate policies, where consensus on probability distributions is not available and stakeholders differ in their degree of risk tolerance. A broader risk-management approach enables a range of possible outcomes to be examined, as well as the uncertainty surrounding their likelihoods.
Kunreuther, Howard; Heal, Geoffrey; Allen, Myles; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Field, Christopher B.; Yohe, Gary
This project-specific RiskManagement Guide describes the general approach and process being used by the HTI Project to managerisk associated with execution of the HTI mission. It includes the initial identification of risk and the quantification of its likelihood and severity of its consequences. It further addresses the formulation of risk mitigation plans, periodic statusing of the RiskManagement List, and risk closure.
The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.
It is important to the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), as well as future manned spaceflight programs, to understand the early mission risk and progression of risk as the program gains insights into the integrated vehicle through flight. The risk progression is important to the SSP as part of the documentation of lessons learned. The risk progression is important to future programs to understand reliability growth and the first flight risk. This analysis uses the knowledge gained from 30 years of operational flights and the current Shuttle PRA to calculate the risk of Loss of Crew and Vehicle (LOCV) at significant milestones beginning with the first flight. Key flights were evaluated based upon historical events and significant re-designs. The results indicated that the Shuttle risk tends to follow a step function as opposed to following a traditional reliability growth pattern where risk exponentially improves with each flight. In addition, it shows that risk can increase due to trading safety margin for increased performance or due to external events. Due to the risk drivers not being addressed, the risk did not improve appreciably during the first 25 flights. It was only after significant events occurred such as Challenger and Columbia, where the risk drivers were apparent, that risk was significantly improved. In addition, this paper will show that the SSP has reduced the risk of LOCV by almost an order of magnitude. It is easy to look back afte r 30 years and point to risks that are now obvious, however; the key is to use this knowledge to benefit other programs which are in their infancy stages. One lesson learned from the SSP is understanding risk drivers are essential in order to considerably reduce risk. This will enable the new program to focus time and resources on identifying and reducing the significant risks. A comprehensive PRA, similar to that of the Shuttle PRA, is an effective tool quantifying risk drivers if support from all of the stakeholders is given.
Reviews current school district riskmanagement practices and the related accounting requirements. Summarizes the Governmental Accounting Standards Board's proposed accounting standards and the impact of these on school districts' riskmanagement practices and on their financial statements. (11 references) (MLF)
The paper considers the use of riskmanagement techniques and instruments by firms in developing countries. Increased financial market volatility in recent years has led to the development of a number of new financial instruments for managing the risks as...
This paper describes recent work on developing an extensible information grid for riskmanagement at NASA - a RISK INFORMATION GRID. This grid is being developed by integrating information grid technology with riskmanagement processes for a variety of risk related applications. To date, RISK GRID applications are being developed for three main NASA processes: riskmanagement - a closed-loop iterative process for explicit riskmanagement, program/project management - a proactive process that includes riskmanagement, and mishap management - a feedback loop for learning from historical risks that escaped other processes. This is enabled through an architecture involving an extensible database, structuring information with XML, schemaless mapping of XML, and secure server-mediated communication using standard protocols.
NASA requires continuous riskmanagement for all programs and projects. The riskmanagement process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project riskmanagement is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Riskmanagement begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a riskmanagement plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the riskmanagement approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in riskmanagement is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent riskmanagement, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.
...2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Riskmanagement. 932.1 Section 932.1...BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISKMANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL...CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS Â§ 932.1 Riskmanagement. Before its new...
Describes a health-and-safety risk-management audit in four Queensland, Australia high schools. One major outcome of this research project is the development of a comprehensive risk-management policy in compliance with the law. Other outcomes include the preparation of a professional-development package in risk-management policy for use as a…
Purpose – Proposes to investigate the current practices of credit riskmanagement by the largest US-based financial institutions. Owing to the increasing variety in the types of counterparties and the ever-expanding variety in the forms of obligations, credit riskmanagement has jumped to the forefront of riskmanagement activities carried out by firms in the financial services industry. This study
...2009-01-01 2009-01-01 false Riskmanagement. 932.1 Section 932.1...BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISKMANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL...CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS Â§ 932.1 Riskmanagement. Before its new...
...Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program Â§ 441.476 Riskmanagement. (a) The State must specify the risk assessment methods it uses to identify potential risks to the participant. (b) The State must specify any tools...
Funding project riskmanagement is a process for identifying, assessing, and prioritizing project funding risks. To plan to minimize or eliminate the impact of negative events, one must identify what projects have higher risk to respond to potential proje...
C. Lim J. Chenette M. C. Bruton S. Dabholkar S. G. Teng
A construction project is about the riskiest thing any company does in the normal course of business. Hundreds of things can go wrong, dozens will. But officers who analyze and manage every other sort of risk often ignore construction risk as if it were uncontrollable. The truth is, it can't be eliminated, but it can be controlled. Construction is not a product but a confusing and often exasperating service. A group of experts--architects, bankers, consultants, contractors, engineers, users, city officials--coordinate the activities of an army of suppliers, laborers, designers, subcontractors, and inspectors. The job of the company officers is to coordinate the coordinators; to make prompt, informed decisions as the work progresses; to take and retain project responsibility at the highest level; and to analyze and manage the entire process in the following seven stages: 1. Study the types and phases of construction risk. 2. Assess the risks of the company's particular project. 3. Match these risks with the in-house capabilities. 4. Define a building strategy. 5. Pick the right kind of contract. 6. Choose a contractor. 7. Monitor construction. Analyzing risk is largely a matter of assessing the complexity of the building, the site, the financing, the schedule, and the special uses and problems of the project. This analysis then drives the choice of contract and contractor. The range runs from low-cost providers, lump sum contracts and very little teamwork at one end of the spectrum to highly differentiated construction companies, guaranteed-maximum-prince contracts, and consultative coordination at the other. PMID:10292513
Purpose – Global supply chains are more risky than domestic supply chains due to numerous links interconnecting a wide network of firms. These links are prone to disruptions, bankruptcies, breakdowns, macroeconomic and political changes, and disasters leading to higher risks and making riskmanagement difficult. The purpose of this paper is to explore the phenomenon of riskmanagement and risk
Operational riskmanagement (ORM) is a process of critical importance to organizations. It refers to the systematic identification, assessment and mitigation of operational risks, i.e. risks stemming from processes, people, systems or external events. ORM is performed through different systems in the different business units of the enterprise - however a unified view of the operational riskmanagement information is
The goal of RiskManagement activities is to define prevention and control mechanisms to address the risks attached to specify activities and valuable assets. Many RiskManagement efforts operate in silos with narrowly focused, functionally driven, and disjointed activities. That fact leads to a fragmented view of risks, where each activity uses its own language, customs and metrics. The lack
With rapid economic development and the progressively more intense competition, building industries are facing the constant change, and these will bring risk to the enterprise development. Riskmanagement is needed in the manufacturing course and has become the indispensable part of the national lash-up system. Based on the analysis of riskmanagement situation of construction firms, the connotations of risk
Collaborative software development involving multiple organizational units, often spanning national, language, and cultural boundaries, raises new challenges and risks that can derail software development projects even when traditional risk factors are being controlled. This article presents a framework that can be used to manage collaborative software development projects, based on an extended set of riskmanagement principles. Three risk factors
Mojgan Mohtashami; Thomas Marlowe; Vassilka Kirova; Fadi P. Deek
The role of the riskmanagement database is to help document and communicate risk information. In this regard, standardized riskmanagement databases lead to a common understanding of riskmanagement information. While risk information is similar from program to program, program characteristics, such as the organizational components, program goals and objectives, and major program threats, require significant variations in the
Hog producers in Indiana and Nebraska were surveyed about sources of risk, effectiveness of riskmanagement strategies, and prior participation in and desire for additional riskmanagement education. Ownership of hogs by the producer, size of the operation, and age did have significant effects on ratings of both sources of risk and effectiveness of riskmanagement strategies. Probit analysis found
George F. Patrick; Amy J. Peiter; Thomas O. Knight; Keith H. Coble; Alan E. Baquet
...11-3031, ``Financial Managers...merchants include large financial institutions whose operations management employees' salaries...stability of the entire financial system. However...previously, riskmanagement systems can...
Reliable estimation of flood magnitude\\/frequency relationship is on the basis of flood hazard estimation, and it is the basis of risk assessment and management. Data on flood magnitude and frequency is usually obtained from systematic river level and discharge records, which very seldom cover time periods larger than a century. However, past flood information can also be obtained from non-systematic
This article examines a new database that details corporate riskmanagement activity in the North American gold mining industry. The author finds little empirical support for the predictive power of theories that view riskmanagement as a means to maximize shareholder value. However, firms whose managers hold more options manage less gold price risk, and firms whose managers hold more
Riskmanagement practices under the current environmental regulations is a long, complex process that considers scientific, technologic, and management factors to develop various regulatory standards and pollution control measures. Using the mandatory enforcement approach, sometimes referred to as “command-and-control”, a set of preliminary environmental goals, such as better air and water qualities, were achieved. However, the information-intensive nature of the riskmanagement process and the lack of flexibility in conventional regulatory methods to changing economic and technologic realities of the decade has created interest among riskmanagers to examine some innovative management approaches. Above all, environmental problems of a global scale require novel management methods while striving to achieve the desired environmental goals. As the principal analytical tool in riskmanagement, quantitative risk assessment exerts considerable influence on the riskmanagement process. Therefore, advances in riskmanagement are closely associated with scientific developments that enhance the risk assessment process, particularly those efforts aimed at improving human exposure and toxicity assessments. Market incentives, information dissemination, creative enforcement practices, and interagency and intergovernmental interactions were identified as the key elements of innovative environmental riskmanagement practices. This paper will present an overview of the emerging innovative riskmanagement approaches.
The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions
Incident data about disruptions to the electric power grid provide useful information that can be used as inputs into riskmanagement policies in the energy sector for disruptions from a variety of origins including terrorist attacks. This paper uses data from the Disturbance Analysis Working Group (DAWG) database, which is maintained by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) to
Jeffrey S. Simonoff; Carlos E. Restrepo; Rae Zimmerman
Incident data about disruptions to the electric power grid provide useful information that can be used as inputs into riskmanagement policies in the energy sector for disruptions from a variety of origins including terrorist attacks. This paper uses data from the Disturbance Analysis Working Group (DAWG) database, which is maintained by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) to
Jeffrey S. Simonoff; Carlos E. Restrepo; Rae Zimmerman
Abstract—Operational riskmanagement,is the process of mon- itoring, evaluating, and changing courses of actions with potential detrimental consequences in real time. In this paper, we extend the decision models proposed in the literature for individual risk man- agers to account for situations where multiple riskmanagers are involved. For this purpose, two dynamic and adaptive preference aggregation models for cardinal
The ordinary conduct of school business is accompanied today by risks that were rare or unknown a few decades ago. This ERIC Digest discusses how riskmanagement, a concept long used by corporate decision makers, can help school boards and administrators conserve their districts' assets. Riskmanagement is a coordinated effort to protect an…
The ordinary conduct of school business is accompanied today by risks that were rare or unknown a few decades ago. This ERIC Digest in Spanish discusses how riskmanagement, a concept long used by corporate decision makers, can help school boards and administrators conserve their districts' assets. Riskmanagement is a coordinated effort to…
The financial scandals in the United States and other countries ushered in financial reporting and corporate governance reforms that extend beyond the U.S. Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX). These initiatives have increased the international financial community's awareness of the importance of riskmanagement and internal controls. Tax riskmanagement and related internal controls have been accorded less focus than risk
Riskmanagement for international project is a relatively new problem for Chinese construction companies. The research in this paper first introduces the riskmanagement techniques for international construction projects, then analyzes the characteristics of the international projects, and finally puts forward some useful countermeasures to the possible risks which are likely to occur during the execution of the international construction
Enterprise riskmanagement has become an important consideration in all aspects of business, including production planning. Business risk scorecards are important tools to monitor the performance of organisations. This article demonstrates the value of business scorecards as a means to monitor organisational performance with respect to riskmanagement. A small bank credit loan case is used to make this demonstration.
The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: • Risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other end states) • Risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities • Comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs • Ranking of programs or activities by risk • Ranking of wastes/materials by risk • Evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress • Integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time.
Mergers are big, risky business and they frequently fail. This article reviews the literature around managing human resource management (HRM) risk in a merger. It finds that poor merger results are often attributed to HRM and organisational problems, and that several factors related to maintaining workforce stability are identified as important in managing HRM risk. Gaps are exposed in the
For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developed in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. With the help of Meteo France datas and experts, Predict services helps local communities and companies in decision making for flood management. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which are responsible of the transmission of meteorological alert and of rescue actions. In the crossing of the géo-information stemming from the space technology, communication, meteorology, hydraulics and hydrology, Predict-services brings help to local communities in their mission of protection and information to the citizens, for flood problems and helps companies to limit and delete operating losses facing floods. The initiative, developped by BRL, EADS Astrium, in association with Meteo France, has been employed and is functioning on cities of south of France, notably on Montpellier, and also on the scale of catchment area ( BRL is a regional development company, a public private partnership controlled by the local gouvernments of the Languedoc-Roussillon Region). The initiative has to be coordinated with state services to secure continuity and coherence of information. This initiative is developped in dialogue with State services as Météo France, the Ministry for the interior, the Ministry for ecology and the durable development, the Regional Direction of the Environment (DIREN), the Central service of Hydrometeorology and Support to the Forecast of the Floods ( SCHAPI) and service of forecast of rising (SPC). It has been successfully functioning for 5 years with 300 southern cities from South West to South East of France and notably Montpellier and Sommières, famous for it's flood problems on the Vidourle river where no human loss was to regret and where the economic impacts were minimized. Actually developed in cities of South of France, this initiative is to be developed nationaly and very soon internationally. Thanks to the efficiency of it's method, this initiative is also developed in partnership with insurance company involved in prevention actions. After more than 100 events observed and analysed in South of France, the experience gained, allowed PREDICT Services to better anticipate phenomena and also to better manage them. The presentation will expose the feedback of this initiative and lessons learned on riskmanagement.
...Transmission Vegetation ManagementReliability Standard; Notice of Compliance...the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), pursuant...of NERC's plan to conduct testing to develop empirical data...guidance materials for NERC Reliability Standard FAC-003-2...
Aims to identify awareness of and involvement in risk assessments, training, incident reporting, information giving and consenting in an acute health care context. Explores how nurse managers perceived riskmanagement as a concept and if they saw advanced neonatal nurse practitioners having a role to play in this activity. The method used was a postal survey of 62 nurse managers
NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply riskmanagement principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for riskmanagement that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for riskmanagement: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.
Examines how riskmanagement is reworking the doctoral supervisor/candidate relationship. Examines "soft marking" (grading) as a specific domain in which risk minimization is producing new relational identities for both supervisors and students involved in doctoral studies programs. (EV)
Purpose – Corporate riskmanagement is one of the critical concerns of managers when they make investment allocation decisions among multiple projects. The purpose of this paper is to address corporate investment issues illustrated by target-beating in capital budgeting, and further discuss their applications in financial management, especially in venture capital finance. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – Value-at-risk, a typical down-side risk measure
The RiskManagement Index, RMI, proposed in this paper, brings together a group of indicators that measure riskmanagement\\u000a performance and effectiveness. These indicators reflect the organizational, development, capacity and institutional actions\\u000a taken to reduce vulnerability and losses in a given area, to prepare for crisis and to recover efficiently from disasters.\\u000a This index is designed to assess riskmanagement
Martha Liliana Carreño; Omar Darío Cardona; Alex H. Barbat
After a short review of the rules of Basel II regarding the treatment of operational risk, this paper focuses on four axes of operational riskmanagement: static analysis of losses with incident databases; dynamic analysis of losses with dashboards and loss ratios; key risks and performance indicators, and finally, risk and control self-assessment. This contribution, based both on academic research
Credit risk is the major challenge for riskmanagers and market regulators. Banks, regulators and central banks do not agree on how to measure credit risk and, more particularly, on how to compute the optimal capital that is necessary for protecting the different partners that share this risk. Asking banks to keep too much capital in reserve to cover credit
The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS RiskManagement Office strategy to proactively and systematically managesrisks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated riskmanagement process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous riskmanagement methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.
After a reminder on the fundamental concepts of the management of risk, the author describes the overall analysis of risk (AGR), name given by the author to the up-to-date APR method which after several changes of the initial process aims to cover a perimeter of analysis and broader management both at the level of structural that business risks of any kind throughout the system development life cycle, of the study of its feasibility to dismantling. PMID:23602675
Increasingly, risk assessors are moving away from simple deterministic assessments to probabilistic approaches that explicitly incorporate ecological variability, measurement imprecision, and lack of knowledge (collectively termed "uncertainty"). While the new methods provide an...
Quality control (QC) practices are changing in US laboratories as Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services adopts individualized QC plans as a new option for compliance with the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments regulations. The Joint Commission provides general guidance for applying riskmanagement in health care organizations. The EP23A (Evaluation Protocol 23A) document from the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute provides specific guidance on the use of riskmanagement for developing analytical QC plans. Medical laboratories should integrate riskmanagement tools with existing quality management techniques and activities to provide an overall plan for analytical quality management. PMID:23331725
Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary riskmanagement approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of riskmanagement is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managingrisks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional riskmanagement models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, riskmanagement utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, riskmanagement for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide riskmanagement program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of riskmanagement; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented riskmanagement practices are effective.
Schulte, P. A.; Geraci, C. L.; Hodson, L. L.; Zumwalde, R. D.; Kuempel, E. D.; Murashov, V.; Martinez, K. F.; Heidel, D. S.
External riskmanagement encompasses many areas such as finance, politics and national cultures, and there are many literatures\\u000a that focus significantly on riskmanagement in each area. Managing external risks are not unlike managing project risks and\\u000a the same principles that are applied to project riskmanagement may well be used to manage external risks. However, although\\u000a external riskmanagement
Risk and cost trade-offs have been simulated using a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method accounts for all naturally-occurring uncertainties including those in constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry and loading conditions. The probability density function of first buckling load for a set of uncertain variables is computed. The probabilistic sensitivity factors of uncertain variables to the first buckling load is calculated. The reliability-based cost for a composite fuselage panel is defined and minimized with respect to requisite design parameters. The optimization is achieved by solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations whose coefficients are functions of probabilistic sensitivity factors. With optimum design parameters such as the mean and coefficient of variation (representing range of scatter) of uncertain variables, the most efficient and economical manufacturing procedure can be selected. In this paper, optimum values of the requisite design parameters for a predetermined cost due to failure occurrence are computationally determined. The results for the fuselage panel analysis show that the higher the cost due to failure occurrence, the smaller the optimum coefficient of variation of fiber modulus (design parameter) in longitudinal direction.
Shiao, Michael C.; Singhal, Surendra N.; Chamis, Christos C.
Operational risk is defined as a consequence of critical contingencies most of which are quantitative in nature and many questions regarding economic capital allocation for operational risk continue to be open. Existing quantitative models that compute the value at risk for market and credit risk do not take into account operational risk. They also make various assumptions about 'normality' and
Financial institutions increasingly do business abroad to diversify and expand their sources of revenue and profitability. This strategy exposes the bank to country risk and raises the potential for financial loss. Country risk is the risk that economic, ...
In this paper, we present literature review of riskmanagement. Then we develop a conceptual model for riskmanagement in chemical industry supply chain. Finally a case study is presented. In this case, we study a chemical industry supply chain, which consists of palm plantation, oils Corporation, fine chemical plant, daily chemical plant, distributor, retailer, and customer. After visiting a
For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developped in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which are responsible of the transmission of meteorological alert and of rescue actions. In the crossing of the géo-information stemming from the space technology, communication, meteorology, hydraulics and hydrology, Predict-services brings help to local communities in their mission of protection and information to the citizens, for flood problems and helps companies to limit and delete operating losses facing floods. The initiative, developped by BRL, EADS Astrium, in association with Meteo France, has been employed and is functioning on cities of south of France, notably on Montpellier, and also on the scale of catchment area( BRL is a regional development company, a public private partnership controlled by the local gouvernments of the Languedoc-Roussillon Region). The initiative has to be coordinated with state services to secure continuity and coherence of information. This initiative is developped in dialogue with State services as Météo France, the Ministry for the interior, the Ministry for ecology and the durable development, the Regional Direction of the Environment (DIREN), the Central service of Hydrometeorology and Support to the Forecast of the Floods ( SCHAPI) and service of forecast of rising (SPC). It has been successfully functioning for 5 years with 300 southern cities from South West to South East of France and notably Montpellier and Sommières, famous for it’s flood problems on the Vidourle river where no human loss was to regret and where the economic impacts were minimized. Actually developed in cities of South of France, this initiative is to be developed nationaly and very soon internationally. Thanks to the efficiency of it’s method, this initiative is also developed in partnership with insurance company involved in prevention actions. The presentation will expose the feedback of this initiative and lessons learned.
Abstract Purpose,– The purpose,of this paper is to examine,the constructs underpinning,riskmanagement and explores its application in the supply,chain context through,the development,of a framework. The constructs of performance,and,risk are matched,together to provide,new,perspectives,for researchers and practitioners. Design\\/methodology\\/approach,– The,conceptual,and,empirical,work,in the supply,chain management,field and other related fields is employed,to develop a conceptual framework,of supply chain riskmanagement,(SCRM). Risk in the supply chain is
For a number of years the health care riskmanagement industry has been addressing unplanned and unanticipated adverse events. Organizations that are proactive in their approach to risk and quality management will have big payoffs in clinical quality improvement, service quality improvement, employee satisfaction, and customer satisfaction. PMID:10160154
Construction industry is highly risk prone, with complex and dynamic project environments creating an atmosphere of high uncertainty and risk. The industry is vulnerable to various technical, sociopolitical and business risks. The track record to cope with these risks has not been very good in construction industry. As a result, the people working in the industry bear various failures, such
This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managingrisk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project riskmanagement is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.
The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively managerisk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss (
The risks of failure of construction joint ventures (JVs) are high and the financial consequences are expensive. This paper sets out to identify the nature of these risks and the means by which they are managed, through the study of the critical factors that contribute to successful JVs and the risk factors associated with JV operations. The results of a
This study presents a summary of what is the meaning of riskmanagement in light of the Basel II Agreement. The study is structured in three parts, namely: credit riskmanagement, significant credit riskmanagement and credit riskmanagement under Basel II Agreement. Thus, in the first part it refers to how developed the credit riskmanagement over time and
The Right-to-Know Network (RTK Net) has recently placed a large database of summaries (approximately 14,000) of riskmanagement plans (RMPs) concerning "worst-case" and less severe accident scenarios at chemical facilities. The RMPs were required of certain chemical facilities and presented to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which originally intended to place them online. However, Congress and the White House, spurred on by warnings of security specialists, objected, arguing that this document might serve as a road map to would-be terrorists. The worst-case-scenario information has been exempted from the Freedom of Information Act for one year to allow the Administration time to address these security concerns. RTK Net has made these more easily available in the interest of public awareness and to confront chemical companies that have tried to hide or at least downplay chemical releases. Users can browse the RMPs by state or conduct a keyword search. The About the Data section also offers a number of related links.
In analyzing the stability of a maintenance process, it is important that it not be treated in isolation from the reliability and risk of deploying the software that result from applying the process. Furthermore, we need to consider the efficiency of the test effort that is a part of the process and a determinate of reliability and risk of deployment.
In analyzing the stability of a software maintenance process, it is important that it is not treated in isolation from the reliability and risk of deploying the software that result from applying the process. Furthermore, we need to consider the efficiency of the test effort that is a part of the process and a determinate of reliability and risk of
Risks in software systems arise from many directions. There are risks that the software is faulty, that the system may be attacked, that safety hazards exist, that the system may be inoperable or untimely, that an abnormal event may cause unexpected actions, etc. Risk analysis tools should support and document risk-mitigation decisions and facilitate understanding of residual risks. These tools must be based on a sound theory of risk, which does not exist today. Probabilistic risk assessment techniques apply to physically-based systems where failure modes and event dependence are fairly well understood. But they cannot be blindly applied to software systems, which do not share these characteristics. Moreover, we need to meld many diverse aspects of risk for software systems. This presentation will explore some thought-provoking ideas about modeling, problem spaces, solution approaches, math, decision friendly output, and the role of risk analysis in the software lifecycle.
In this article I describe a methodology for the mapping of Operational Risk with the objective of identifying the risks inherent in the different steps of a business process, selecting a set of variables providing an estimate for the likelihood and the severity of operational risk (Key Risk Indicators – KRIs) and designing the most appropriate control activities. I then
Los Alamos National Laboratory has riskmanagement programs at a number of administrative levels. Each line organization has responsibility for riskmanagement for routine operations. The Facility RiskManagement group (HS-3) is the Los Alamos organization with the primary responsibility for riskmanagement including providing input and expertise to facilities and line managers in the management and documentation of ES&H hazards and risks associated with existing and new activities. One of the major contributions this group has made to laboratory riskmanagement program is to develop and implement a hazard identification and classification methodology that is readily adaptable to continuously changing classification guidelines such as DOE-STD-1027. The increased emphasis on safety at Los Alamos has led to the formation of additional safety oversight organization such as the Integration and Coordination Office (ICO), which is responsible for prioritization of riskmanagement activities. In the fall of 1991, nearly 170 DOE inspectors spent 6 weeks analyzing the environmental, safety, and health activities at Los Alamos. The result of this audit was a list of over 1000 findings, each indicating some deficiency in current Laboratory operations relative to DOE and other government regulation. The audit team`s findings were consolidated and ``action plans`` were developed to address the findings. This resulted in over 200 action plans with a total estimated cost of almost $1 billion. The Laboratory adopted a risk-based prioritization process to attempt to achieve as much risk reduction as possible with the available resources. This paper describes the risk based prioritization model that was developed.
Brooks, D.G. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Stack, D.W. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender-attacker-defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The riskmanagement model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data. PMID:20002893
Parnell, Gregory S; Smith, Christopher M; Moxley, Frederick I
September 26, 1997. The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and RiskManagement, which was mandated as part of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, was disbanded on August 31, 1997, with some staff work continuing into September. The reports and asso...
It is shown how the methods of risk analysis have been used in the University of Rome micro-satellite program. One of the driving research topics related to this program is the reduction of cost in building spacecraft. The probability risk analysis techniques seem to be a powerful tool in the field of micro-satellites design, to outline possible faults. Innovation and limited budget forcing the designer to move in a very "risky" environment and can be faced with an as rigorous as possible decision making method. In our project, cost reduction is often attained relying on commercial, not space-rated components, which of course increases risk. This is why the design process should be led by the careful analysis of the risk associated with the selection of components and construction techniques. In standard applications risk can be evaluated from reliability data obtained in previous and well known similar applications. In our case, for many components, there is a lack of reliability data, due to the obvious missing experience when dealing with not yet space qualified, or even never flown before components. This lack is overcome using numerical simulations and practical engineering considerations, but does not allow a rigorous reliability assessment. A simple qualitative analysis is used to rank priorities among subsystems and allocate economic resources and development efforts. The main risk source is space radiation effect on CMOS electronic components. Therefore, development resources are directed to radiation effect mitigation. A procedure is proposed to lower risk without using space rated components.
How much should greenhouse gas emissions be reduced in response to climate change risks? Current regulatory analyses typically adopt a benefit-cost (or the more general optimal economic growth) framework to this question. However, benefit-cost analyses of climate change typically neglect the effects of the deep uncertainties surrounding the projections of future climate change impacts and decision-making criteria. Riskmanagement approaches such as robust decision-making or optimal reliable strategies may provide useful insights into the effects of these deep uncertainties and help guide the design of adaptive strategies.
Asthma attacks are a major global source of morbidity and cost. The incidence and impact of asthma attacks have not improved despite widespread adoption of effective universal treatment guidelines. Consequently, there is increasing interest in managing asthma based on specific assessments of both current symptoms and future risk. In this review, we consider 'risk' in asthma, and how it might be assessed from the patient's history and objective measurements. We also discuss the potential for encouraging shared decision-making and improving medical consensus through explicit communication of risk and highlight the potential opportunities and challenges in risk assessment to improve asthma management through individualised treatment strategies. PMID:24773229
Since 1984 NASA has funded several major programs to develop Reliability/Risk Methods and tools for engineers to apply in the design and assessment of aerospace hardware. Two probabilistic software tools that show great promise for practical application are the finite element code NESSUS and the system risk analysis code QRAS. This paper examines NASA's past, present, and future directions in reliability and risk engineering applications, Both the NESSUS and QRAS software tools are detailed.
Prominent tools for assessing and managingrisk include risk cubes, risk burndown charts, and automated riskmanagement software. They are generally lacking, however, in accommodating ideation and brainstorming to identify potential problems. A suggested ...
The paper makes a survey of current trends in business riskmanagement focusing on IS\\/IT riskmanagement in financial institutions. Special attention is paid to frameworks and regulations available for both financial and non-financial riskmanagement and their relation to IS\\/IT riskmanagement. The relationship and common and different features between IS\\/IT riskmanagement and operational riskmanagement are discussed
In essence, reliability is the consistency of test results. To understand the meaning of reliability and how it relates to validity, imagine going to an airport to take flight #007 from Pittsburgh to San Diego. If, every time the airplane makes the flight
The advanced Expert System (ES) “InfoPipeMaster” is developed for transit pipeline management incorporating databases (DB)\\u000a “Objects”, “Materials”, “Defects”, and “Loadings” with special attention to assist especially in defining the different materials\\u000a damage processes during pipeline operation. Main results of ES application to the safety, reliability, and risk assessment\\u000a are demonstrated for different pipelines: transit ammonia pipeline ø355.6 mm “Togliatty —
Government agencies, including those responsible for transportation, are beginning to adopt the use of modern project management techniques which incorporate riskmanagement. In particular, for large transportation construction projects, quantitative riskmanagement is being utilized as an optimal process. Quantitative riskmanagement involves quantitative (i.e. probabilistic) risk assessment in addition to risk response. Probabilistic risk assessment of a project takes
The present study aims to show how various medical and nonmedical components contribute to success and failure in the management of colorectal cancer. The first encounter, subsequent diagnosis, and surgical therapy of a patient with Dukes B sigmoid cancer is modeled as a reliability block diagram with a serial and parallel arrangement of various components. The overall probability of a patient with new-onset colorectal cancer to visit a physician, be correctly diagnosed, and undergo successful therapy is 69%. The reduction in the overall success, despite the fact that the majority of components are assumed to function with failure rates of 5% or less, is a reflection of the multitude of serial subsystems involved in the management of the patient. In contrast, the parallel arrangement of subsystems results in a relative insensitivity of the overall system to failure, a greater stability, and an improved performance. Since no medical system functions perfectly, redundancy associated with parallel subsystems assures a better overall outcome. System analysis of health care provides a means to improve its performance. PMID:10063917
The efficient and organized management of public utility networks is of paramount importance to a network’s viability and reliable functioning. One of the key components of a suitable network management strategy is the utilization of integrated risk analysis and asset management decision-support systems (DSS) that incorporate both the scientific aspects of risk-of-failure analysis for the network components but also the
Symeon Christodoulou; Alexandra Deligianni; Pooyan Aslani; Agathoklis Agathokleous
The complexity of medical equipment continues to increase, with a greater possibility that patient care could be compromised. The ability of the clinical user of medical equipment to verify the function of some medical devices is reducing; in some cases, it is non-existent. In an environment of increasing litigation, the pressure to “get it right” in the management of medical
To expand and improve communication to stakeholders, the National RiskManagement Research Laboratory (NRMRL) has established a listserver to more quickly announce publications, workshops, conferences, and other activities related to NRMRL's research activities. The listserver i...
This report describes our second attempt to use a quantitative, applied model of fatigue and well-accepted fatigue countermeasures in the context of operational riskmanagement (ORM). The report discusses ORM in terms of the identification of fatigue haza...
This document describes the authors' first attempt to use a quantitative, applied model of fatigue and well-accepted fatigue countermeasures in the context of operational riskmanagement. To identify fatigue hazards, they listed the known, primary physiol...
A system for managingrisk in employee travel may control access by users to the travel riskmanagement system. The travel riskmanagement system may receive and store company information for a client company subscribing to the travel riskmanagement system, and allow activation code packages to be defined for allowing a specified number of activation codes to be generated for the subscribing client company. Once the activation code packages are defined, the specified number of activation codes may be generated and assigned to employee's of the subscribing client company. The system may provide for defining super admin users authorized to input client company information and define activation code packages, and client admin users authorized to select activation code packages, and generate and assign the activation codes to users.
The purpose of this research was to improve defense supply chain riskmanagement processes through better intelligence integration. To this end, this research sought to capture the present state of academic and Department of Defense (DoD) thought regardin...
Biosecurity, biocontainment, and disease riskmanagement on dairy replacement operations are time- and labor-intensive, planned programs. Oftentimes the value of these programs is realized only after disease is introduced to a facility or a disease outbreak occurs. There is no "one-plan-fits-all;" each plan must be tailored to meet the needs of management's goals and expectations and problems specific to a production enterprise or geographic region. A standard framework applicable to biosecurity programs includes: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) risk characterization, and (4) riskmanagement. The discussion presented here helps lay the framework for development and implementation of biosecurity and risk-management programs within dairy replacement facilities. PMID:18299037
People in program offices make decisions every day. Sometimes the alternatives are clear with unambiguous outcomes but more often the options are less certain and have far-reaching unintended consequences. An effective riskmanagement program can provide ...
Many school districts lack the resources to hire a full-time riskmanager and often assign risk-management duties to a manager with other responsibilities. Offers steps that can help with risk-management procedures. Cooperation, communication, and, most important, the support of top management are critical for risk-management effectiveness. (MLF)
With the rapid development of economic and technology in China, structural forms are becoming more and more complicated, which requires more rigorous construction technology and construction management. However, the riskmanagement in our country is still in its infancy, and managers are short of awareness of risks and lack of ability to managerisks. Study on riskmanagement methods mode
Background Riskmanagement is an important aspect of education for all residents. Unfortunately, few curricula currently exist to fulfill this educational need. Objective We developed a curriculum that teaches residents basic principles of riskmanagement with the goals of (1) educating residents about the medical-legal environment in which they operate, (2) helping residents identify common malpractice exposures, and (3) teaching practical riskmanagement/patient safety interventions that can be implemented in their practice that could reduce malpractice exposure and improve patient safety. Methods The curriculum was developed by Medical RiskManagement, LLC, a Connecticut-based riskmanagement firm, in conjunction with academic leadership at the University of Connecticut. The program uses 3 learning modalities: live lectures, web-based video modules, and e-mailed learning publications. Gains in resident knowledge through participation in the curriculum were measured using pretests and posttests. Learner satisfaction with the curriculum was measured through web-based surveys. Results We found a significant improvement in knowledge in residents who took the pretest and posttest (P < .001). Of the survey respondents, 97% said the content was relevant to their specialty practice and 95% responded that these sessions should be held annually. Most respondents indicated they would change their practice as a result of what they learned from the live lectures. Conclusion This riskmanagement curriculum has been successful in providing our residents with learning activities in riskmanagement, improving their knowledge of riskmanagement principles, and changing their attitudes and behaviors. These improvements may lead to fewer malpractice claims against them and the hospitals they train in.
Nissen, Kiki; Angus, Steven V.; Miller, Wendy; Silverman, Adam R.
Abstract Project riskmanagement,has been intensively discussed in recent years. Projects are becoming,shared efforts of multiple parties – construction industry is a good example,of an area, where the project outcome is delivered in an extremely complex actor network. Still, research on how the project riskmanagement should be adopted to the network environment,is scarce. This study’s objective is to identify
Drought affects virtually all regions of the world and results in significant economic, social, and environmental impacts. The Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates annual drought-related losses in the U.S. at $6--$8 billion, which is more than any other natural hazard. Congress enacted the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000 to encourage the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) RiskManagement Agency
Steve Goddard; Sherri K. Harms; Stephen E. Reichenbach; Tsegaye Tadesse; William J. Waltman
? Abstract This review examines,the policies and practices that address the evolv- ing conditions of risk, security, and disaster management in U.S. society. Although each condition presents particular challenges to public agencies and the communities they serve, all represent varying states of uncertainty and require different approaches for informed,action. This analysis reframes the issue of managing,risk by focusing on the
Construction enterprises are affected by various risk factors. To awaken the consciousness of the risksmanagement, and to enhance the mechanism, techniques and skills of construction projectspsila riskmanagement in China, This paper present an integrated riskmanagement model. It consists of three modules named as risk mechanism, quantification analysis system and optimizing decision-making. Risk mechanism, as a basis of
Risk assessment, particularly of risks to the public health resulting from government and industry decisions, is discussed. Cost/benefit analysis as applied to such situations as human deaths and the contracting of cancer by humans is discussed. The role of government regulations and standards is discussed.
Most occupational health and safety professionals understand the difference between “hazard” and “risk.” However, the distinction between these terms is not well understood in the electrical industry where the terms are often used interchangeably. This gap between these two groups of professionals needs to be bridged to ensure electrical hazards and the risks arising from those hazards are effectively addressed.
The paper discusses the overall process of system safety optimization in the space program environment and addresses in particular methods that enhance the efficiency of this activity. Effective system safety optimization is achieved by concentrating the available engineering and safety assurance resouces on the main risk contributors. The qualitative risk contributor identification by means of the hazard analyses and the FMECA constitute the basis for the system safety process. The risk contributors are ranked firstly on a qualitative basis according to the consequence severities. This ranking is then refined by mishap propagation/recovery time considerations and by probabilistic means (PRA). Finally, in order to broaden and extend the use of risk contributor ranking as a managerial tool in project resource assignment, quality, manufacturing and operations related critical characteristics, i.e. risk influencing factors, are identified for managerial visibility.
As an intern this summer in the GRC RiskManagement Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous RiskManagement Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Riskmanagement belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous riskmanagement that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics are established and monitored as tools for risk tracking. Also a trigger or threshold should be set on the metric data that indicates when an action is needed. Results of this tracking are usually evaluated and reported in a relevant format at weekly or monthly meetings. Choosing controls is the subsequent step, which involves the effects of the tracking. The three basic controls are: close, continue tracking, and re- plan. Finally communicate & document is the last step, but occurs throughout the process. It is vital that main risks, plans, changes, and progress are known by everyone in the project. A good way to keep everyone updated and inform other projects of common issues is by thoroughly documenting project risks. NASA sees value in riskmanagement and believes that projects have greater probability or success by using the NASA Continuous RiskManagement Process.
Riskmanagement processes (RMPs) are logically consistent and structured approaches to enumerating and understanding potential risk factors and assessing consequences and uncertainties associated with these identified risk factors. Based on this information, we can evaluate and choose the best course of action in order to cope up with the identified risks and to achieve the desired objectives of a given
Various research undertaken over the past decade has improved our ability to assess and effectively manage contaminated sediments. Key to this improvement is a better understanding of the risks, both in time and space. Sediments can pose risks if contaminants are present in the biologically active zone of a water body or if transport processes can move contaminants into that
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has released, in the last few years, recommendations for the correct determination of the risks to which a banking organization is subject. This concerns, in particular, operational risks, which are all those management events that may determine unexpected losses. It is necessary to develop valid statistical models to measure and, consequently, predict, such operational
Payment systems are an integral part component of banking that is undergoing material change. Industry trends and discussions with key banking personnel highlighted four issues that are top concerns for banks engaged in emerging payments: changing delivery channels and safeguards, fraud, vendor and oversight, and operational risk measurement and reporting. While riskmanagement practices are evolving to meet current and
The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and subassemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, which was established in 2004, was supported by a riskmanagement plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new riskmanagement program was devised and implemented in 2007-2008. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks were ultimately unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in riskmanagement were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.
Neilson, G. H. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; Gruber, C. O. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; Harris, Jeffrey H [ORNL; Rej, D. J. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL); Simmons, R. T. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; Strykowsky, R. L. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ
The real options approach considers strategic management and decision-making as a process aimed at actively reducing exposition to downside risk and promoting exposition to upside opportunities. It stands at the hinge between pure finance and other areas of decision making under risk such as project evaluation, market entry and exit, organizational restructuring and re-engineering, technology adoption, climate change and biodiversity
Marcel Boyer; Peter Christoffersen; Pierre Lasserre; Andrey Pavlov
Truly understanding climate-related disaster risk, and the management of that risk, can inform effective action on climate adaptation and the loss and damage mechanism, the main vehicle under the UN Climate Convention for dealing with climate-related effects, including residual impacts after adaptation.
Mechler, Reinhard; Bouwer, Laurens M.; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Surminski, Swenja; Williges, Keith
As the number of complex procedures performed in ambulatory surgery centers continues to increase, facilities should ensure periodic review of their strategies to ensure patient safety and minimize risks. Several measures ranging from proper patient selection to an effective informed consent process to a comprehensive credentialing program are key strategies to reducing risks to patients and managing patient expectations. PMID:17495678
The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and sub-assemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, established in 2004, was supported by a riskmanagement plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new riskmanagement program was devised and implemented in 2007-08. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks ultimately were unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in riskmanagement were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.
The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and sub-assemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, established in 2004, was supported by a riskmanagement plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new riskmanagement program was devised and implemented in 2007-08. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks ultimately were unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in riskmanagement were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.
When software is used in safety-critical, security-critical, or mission-critical situations, it is imperative to understand and manage the risks involved. A risk assessment methodology and toolset have been developed which are specific to software systems...
The development of risk assessment tools that use dynamic variables to predict recidivism and to inform and facilitate violence reduction interventions is the next major challenge in the field of risk assessment and management. This study is the first in a 2-step process to validate the Violence Risk Scale (VRS), a risk assessment tool that integrates violence assessment, prediction, and
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has released, in the last few years, recommendations for the correct determination of the risks to which a banking organization is subject. This concerns, in particular, operational risks, which are all those management events that may determine unexpected losses. It is necessary to develop valid statistical models to measure and, consequently, predict, such operational risks. In the paper we present the possible approaches, including our own proposal, which is based on Bayesian networks.
Business Process Management (BPM) is considered an essential strategy to create and maintain sustainable competitive advantage. While researchers are anxious to identify critical success factors for the management of business process related projects, the risks associated with these projects have received considerably less attention. This is a concern: Although BPM projects contain phases that relate to software development and deployment,
The two reliability models, their testing, and the modifications of a unified distribution planning model to calculate reliability indices are described. The historical reliability assessment model HISRAM is designed to suit most utilities. Four implementation levels with different input data requirements and output capabilities permit a utility to select a level appropriate to its needs. User-defined divisions, causes and output options further add to the program flexibility. A unique feature of HISRAM is the program generation of the appropriate outage reporting form following level selection and initialization. This allows the engineer to review data input requirements before field implementation. It has the capability of estimating component failure rates and restoration times upon provision of suitable input data. The predictive reliability assessment model PRAM uses continuity criteria, together with component failure rates and restoration times to calculate load point indices. System indices similar to those produced by HISRAM are also calculated. Varying degrees of detail for representing the protection system are available through three user-selected models. Both models were tested through application. The conclusions and recommendations of the entire project are included.
Vismor, T. D.; Northcote-Green, J. E. D.; Kostyal, S. J.; Brooks, C. L.
The major focus for continued development of the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) codes is in support of system testing and certification of advanced propulsion systems. Propulsion system testing has evolved over the years from tests designed to show success, to tests designed to reveal reliability issues before service use. Such test conditions as performance envelope corners, high rotor imbalance, power dwells, and overspeed tests are designed to shake out problems that can be associated with low and high cycle fatigue, creep, and stress rupture, bearing durability, and the like. Subsystem testing supports system certification by standing as an early evaluation of the same durability and reliability concerns as for the entire system. The NESSUS software system is being further developed to support the definition of rigorous subsystem and system test definition and reliability certification. The principal technical issues are outlined which are related to system reliability, including key technology issues such as failure mode synergism, sequential failure mechanisms, and fault tree definition.
The objective of this article is to provide an overview of the basis of risk analysis, assessment and management, accompanying problems and principles of riskmanagement when drafting an environmental geotechnical model, enabling the analysis of an entire territory or developed region as a whole. The environmental impact will remain within the limits of the criteria specified with the standards and will be acceptable for human health and environment. An essential part of the solution of the problem is the engineering-geological model based on risk analysis and the assessment and forecast of mutual effects of the processes.
The traveler attended workshops on Environmental and Disaster ManagementRisk Analysis in New Delhi and Jaipur, India. The objective of the workshops was to provide technical knowledge to Indians in the areas of environmental planning, industrial hazards, risk analysis, and disaster management. Conference participants identified the following top priorities to aid in the development of environmental and disaster management in India: (1) technology transfer in the area of atmospheric dispersion modelling, (2) increased training of scientific personnel to effectively deal with environmental problems, and (3) access to data bases on toxicological properties of chemicals.
Purpose – The paper seeks to address four key Top Management Team (TMT) demographic characteristics in their relationship with firm performance: age, functional background, educational field, and team tenure. The study extends research on the TMT by explicitly introducing team performance as a new context measured in the form of International RiskManagement Factor, in addition to demographic characteristic effects.
William C. Auden; Joshua D. Shackman; Marina H. Onken
The authors propose an approach to analyzing riskmanagement activities when multiple risks are bundled within a firm's assets or liabilities. They classify potentially bundled risks into two types: compensated risk and hedgeable risk. Firms earn rents for bearing compensated risk such as credit risk, and earn zero economic rents for bearing hedgeable risk such as interest rate risk. Because
ObjectiveTo determine whether published subtypes of attachment disorder can be reliably identified by trained clinicians reviewing data from high-risk populations and to investigate the relationship between disorder classification and standardized measures of attachment behavior.
Neil W. Boris; Sarah S. Hinshaw-Fuselier; Anna T. Smyke; Michael S. Scheeringa; Sherryl S. Heller; Charles H. Zeanah
Drug risk assessment and management is an important measure for reducing the adverse drug reaction and enhancing medication safety of the patient. Based on the concepts of drug risk assessment and riskmanagement, and domestic and international drug riskmanagement situation, this paper discusses the riskmanagement of post-marketing Chinese medicine. PMID:22737865
The purpose of this qualitative study was to describe the process by which hospital staff nurses keep patients safe within their hospital safety culture. Findings from this study culminated in a grounded theory of ManagingRisk, the process by which nurses keep their patients safe from harm. Participants perceived that their patients were always at risk (it's always something), thus keeping patients safe was a continual, repetitive process of managingrisk to prevent harm to patients. Stages of this process included risk assessment, risk recognition, prioritization, and protective interventions. Practicing nurses can use this theory to understand and articulate their critical role in keeping patients safe in hospitals. Further examination of this process is necessary for targeted assessment of a safety culture's impact on bedside nursing practice, thus providing a basis for specific interventions to improve patient safety. PMID:23221103
In this paper we set out to demonstrate that the traditional approach to riskmanagement is based on a flawed assumption regarding the objectivity of risk. Riskmanagement is generally seen as a possible remedy for the frequent failure of ISD efforts. The idea behind traditional riskmanagement is that risk factors must first be identified and evaluated, then eliminated
This article is concerned with the reliable H? output feedback control problem against actuator failures for a class of uncertain discrete time-delay systems with randomly occurred nonlinearities (RONs). The failures of actuators are quantified by a variable varying in a given interval. RONs are introduced to model a class of sector-like nonlinearities that occur in a probabilistic way according to
Riskmanagement is the systematic application of management policies, procedures, and practices to the tasks of analyzing, evaluating, controlling and monitoring risk (the effect of uncertainty on objectives). Clinical laboratories conduct a number of activities that could be considered riskmanagement including verification of performance of new tests, troubleshooting instrument problems and responding to physician complaints. Development of a quality control plan for a laboratory test requires a process map of the testing process with consideration for weak steps in the preanalytic, analytic and postanalytic phases of testing where there is an increased probability of errors. Control processes that either prevent or improve the detection of errors can be implemented at these weak points in the testing process to enhance the overall quality of the test result. This manuscript is based on a presentation at the 2nd International Symposium on Point of Care Testing held at King Faisal Specialist Hospital in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on October 12-13, 2010. Riskmanagement principles will be reviewed and progress towards adopting a new Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute Guideline for developing laboratory quality control plans based on riskmanagement will be discussed.
Research related to the ecological riskmanagement of sediment stress in watersheds is placed under a common conceptual framework in order to help promote the timely advance of decision support methods for aquatic resource managers and watershed-level planning. The proposed risk ...
Traditionally toxicology was the science of poisons and antidotes. Because of societal and historical reasons, there developed a need to determine public hazard. This need has resulted in regulatory toxicology, the science of how to evaluate public health and environmental safety by evaluating the possibility of hazard or injury from the use of a substance to humans under practical conditions of use and exposure. The intense investigation, especially in this century, made to address these concerns has led to a significant broadening of the knowledge base in toxicology and to a new capacity to alter toxicity. How the risk of a toxic endpoint is assessed and the steps taken to assure safety are part of a process termed riskmanagement. Managingrisks can affect society, public health, employment, and international economics. It therefore includes, in addition to information on toxicity, many other factors such as values, politics, and economics. In order to provide a description of how risks are managed in a society such as the United States, some background about why certain risks are of concern is given, and how this concern is manifest and the methods of managingrisk with an emphasis on regulatory toxicology are discussed. PMID:3077261
This paper uses riskmanagement theory considering that the effectiveness of the quality management system can be reflected by the effectiveness of quality management system. To improve the effectiveness of quality management system certification, the most important thing is to improve the effectiveness of verification of certification organization as well as to enhance the management of verification risk. Verification risk
A method of ranking devices for replacement has been successfully trialled at Flinders Medical Centre (FMC). Software developed by Flinders Biomedical Engineering (see wwwjbe.org.au) has been distributed to a network of device managers throughout FMC for the entry of easily determined parameters which relate to the likelihood of a device problem occurring and to the consequence of the problem. Algorithms
John Robson; Purdee Yeo; Mike Riches; Tony Carlisle; Noel Kitto
Gives 10 strategies and examples for camp crisis-management: a written, implemented emergency plan; clear, honest communication; trained staff; good community relationships; learning from experience; knowing the local environment; preparing for the media; considering long-term impacts; avoiding adverse effects; and recognizing good things that…
"Space Weather" is defined as electromagnetic and particle conditions in the space environment that can disturb space-borne and ground-based technological systems (e.g. satellite operation, telecommunication, aviation, electric power transmission) and even endanger human health. Thus, space weather is of great importance to the society since people are dependent on reliable operation of modern technology, interruptions of which may lead to large economical and other losses. Physical processes involved in space weather constitute a complicated chain from the Sun to the Earth's surface. Thus, a full understanding of space weather and the risks it produces requires expertise in many different disciplines of science and technology. Space weather is a new subject among the natural risks and hazards which threaten the society and its infrastructure (although the first observations of ground effects of space weather were already made about 150 years ago). Monitoring systems for the management of other risks, such as floods, forest fires, etc., and for security are, to a great extent, based on satellite observations. Spacecraft and the communication between satellites and the ground are vulnerable to space weather. Thus, besides being a direct risk to technological systems, space weather may also be indirectly adverse to riskmanagement. These two aspects of space weather are considered in a proposal to be submitted to EU's Sixth Framework Programme under the "Aeronautics and Space" priority in the "Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) / RiskManagement" area in March 2004. The proposal coordinated by the Finnish Meteorological Institute with five to ten participating institutes is called SW-RISK ("Space Weather - Risk Indices from Scientific Know-how").
This paper presents an integrated framework for evaluating impacts of demand side management (DSM) on composite generation and transmission system reliability. A set of load management models for peak clipping\\/shifting and valley filling, strategic conservation and strategic load growth are presented. Composite DSM actions in the power system's diverse areas are also modeled. Composite system reliability evaluation procedure incorporated with
The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant riskmanagement evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication riskmanagement policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications. PMID:23113627
In this paper, we contrast inductive nursing riskmanagement and abductive nursing riskmanagement, point out the importance\\u000a of the abductive type, and suggest cooperation between them. In general riskmanagement, inductive management is usually adopted.\\u000a If we computationally conduct inductive management, it is vital to collect a considerable number of examples to perform machine\\u000a learning. For nursing riskmanagement,
The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Also provided in the system is an integrated full-screen editor for use when interfacing with remote mainframe computer systems. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 2.0 and is the subject of this user's guide. Version 2.0 of IRRAS provides all of the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance. 9 refs., 292 figs., 4 tabs.
Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA)); Rasmuson, D.M. (Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (USA). Div. of Systems Research)
Determined whether individual neonate characteristics could be detected and reliably measured in preterm infants. Results showed that preterms were highly self-consistent in their reactions to stimuli from neurobehavioral assessments. Highly reliable individual differences among infants were also seen. Individual consistencies and differences in…
Understanding the impact of water quality on the health of a general population is challenging due high degrees of uncertainty and variability in hydrological, toxicological and human aspects of the system. Assessment of the impact of changes in water quality of a public water supply is critical to management of that water supply. We propose the use of three different system evaluation criteria: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV) as a tool for assessing the impact of uncertainty in the arrival of contaminant mass through time with respect to human health risks on a variable population. These criteria were first introduced to the water resources community by Hashimoto et al (1982). Most simply one can understand these criteria as the following: Reliability is the likelihood of the system being in a state of success; Resilience is the probability that the system will return to a state of success at t+1 if it is in failure at time step t, and Vulnerability is the severity of failure, which here is defined as the maximum health risk. These concepts are applied to a theoretical example where the water quality at a water supply well varies over time: health impact is considered based on sliding, 30-year windows of exposure to water derived from the well. We apply the methodology, in terms of uncertainty in water quality deviations, to eight simulated breakthrough curves of a contaminant at the well: each curve represents equal mass of contaminant arriving at the well over a 70-year lifetime of the well, but different mass distributions over time. These curves are used to investigate the impact of uncertainty in the distribution through time of the contaminant mass at the well, as well as the initial arrival of the contaminant over the 70-year lifetime of the well. In addition to extending the health risk through time with uncertainty in mass distribution, we incorporate variability in the human population to examine the evolution of the three criteria within the population. We show that the distribution of predicted health risk, as measured by each of the RRV criteria, is strongly dependent on both the distribution (over time) of the arrival of contaminant mass at the well and the timing of the initial arrival of contaminant within the 70 year lifetime of the well.
HRA is a method used to describe, qualitatively and quantitatively, the occurrence of human failures in the operation of complex systems that affect availability and reliability. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure in a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) provides a more complete picture of the risk and risk contributions. A high quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedural, equipment design and need for automation.
In this context there are many possible assurance activities. Some focus on the prevention of defects - for example, up-front planning, adoption of design standards, configuration management, training, etc. Others focus on the detection of defects - either to detect latent defects in a system (and so be able to correct them before actual deployment of the system), or to increase confidence that such defects are not present. For example, a wide gamut of reviews, design walkthroughs, tests, inspections, analyses, etc. can be applied to systems and their components.
According to the riskmanagement characteristics and the actual needs of safety production in coal mine, we thoroughly analyze the system of riskmanagement method in coal mine and implement it in Geting Coal Mine. The system manages and controls the potential accident risks, hazard sources and human behavior risks. On this basis, the system of workers’ safety behavior control
Cao Qing-gui; Li Kai; Liu Ye-jiao; Sun Qi-hua; Zhang Jian
Outdoor education--be it canoe tripping, adventure programs, field studies or anything else--is inherently risky. Outdoor educators deal with unpredictable settings and situations, where change is constant and outcomes are sometimes uncertain. In this naturalistic environment, their riskmanagement procedures have the potential to break down and…
The aim of this paper is to introduce a new framework for operational riskmanagement, based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Under the LDA approach, non-conjugate distribution is used to fit the frequency and severity. One of the problems relative to the non-conjugate distribution is difficult to estimate the parameter. Then the Bayesian MCMC approach is brought forward.
Software projects are often faced with unanticipated problems caused by e.g. changes in the development environment resulting in delays or threatening the ability of the project to succeed. Managing these uncertainties is a challenging task at all phases of the development, but nevertheless crucial in controlling schedule and costs. Therefore software development risks need to be controlled as early as
Ever since the financial crisis of the banking system of 2008 - 2010 the paradigm that deposits or other exposures towards major banks are safe has been fundamentally questioned. This put industrial corporates, who to support their business usually need to manage significant cash holdings or incur counterparty credit risk via derivatives, in the situation to develop or extend their
A griculture is an inherently risky economic activity. A large array of uncontrollable elements can affect output production and prices, resulting in highly variable economic returns to farm households. In developing countries, farmers also lack access to both modern instruments of riskmanagement—such as agricultural insurance, futures contracts, or guarantee funds—and ex post emergency government assistance. Such farmers rely on
Credit riskmanagement based on portfolio theory becomes popular in recent Japanese financial industry. But consideration and modeling of chain reaction bankruptcy effect in credit portfolio analysis leave much room for improvement even though the importance of the effect is recognized among credit analysis experts. That is partly because method for grasping relations among companies with limited data is underdeveloped.
This paper addresses the need for integrated disaster riskmanagement (IDRM) as a novel perspective for dealing with 21 st century's disaster prevention in both Japan and China, and all over the world. When cities are focused, the methodological leverage of \\
Risk analysis of key systems have become a growing topic late of because of the development of offshore structures. Equipment failures of offloading system and fire accidents were analyzed based on the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) features. Fault tree analysis (FTA), and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) methods were examined based on information already researched on modules of relex reliability studio (RRS). Equipment failures were also analyzed qualitatively by establishing a fault tree and Boolean structure function based on the shortage of failure cases, statistical data, and risk control measures examined. Failure modes of fire accident were classified according to the different areas of fire occurrences during the FMEA process, using risk priority number (RPN) methods to evaluate their severity rank. The qualitative analysis of FTA gave the basic insight of forming the failure modes of FPSO offloading, and the fire FMEA gave the priorities and suggested processes. The research has practical importance for the security analysis problems of FPSO.
Warning System and emergency plans are two fundamental elements of riskmanagement and governance, but unfortunately, most of the times, they are developed independently one from the other, as sequential steps not necessary linked. The main goal of this research is to develop a methodology for applying Early Warning Systems - Community Based to the emergency plan using the results of social surveys and quantitative risk assessment, taking into account the administrative structure and the planning system of the study area, as well as the legislative obligations of each entity involved in the risk governance and emergency management. Using a integrative scientific and social approach to natural hazards the research aim to contribute to fill the gap between scientists, policy makers, stakeholders and community. Initially applied in Comunità Montana Valtellina di Tirano, Italy, the methodology involves the application of two comprehensive surveys. The first is addressed to stakeholders (including policy makers, emergency managers, emergency volunteers, consultants and scientists) in order to determine their needs, points of view, concerns and constraints. The second survey is addressed specifically to local community to assess risk perception, awareness, needs, capacity and level of trust towards stakeholders, besides asking for their willingness to participate in future risk communication activities. The Early Warning System developed includes all the stages of the early warning process (hazard evaluation and forecasting; warning and dissemination and public response) and would be based on a multidisciplinary partnership that takes into account the different actors involved in the riskmanagement in order to accomplish a more reliable and credible result, including an emergency plan specifically designed for each study area. After evaluating the results of the surveys, information and education campaigns will be developed with the objective of reducing vulnerability of the population by increasing risk perception and improving response to early warnings. Spatial planning and specifically decisions about future land-use are critical to mitigate the hazard and to reduce the vulnerability, therefore some inputs will be provided to the decision-makers on where additional risk identification, risk reduction and risk transfer measures are especially necessary.
Garcia, C.; Sterlacchini, S.; Pasuto, A.; de Amicis, M.
Bipolar disorders are prevalent, often severe, and disabling illnesses with elevated lethality largely due to suicide. Suicide rates average approximately 1% annually, or perhaps 60 times higher than the international population rate of 0.015% annually. Suicidal acts typically occur early in bipolar disorders and in association with severe depressive or mixed states. The high lethality of suicidal acts in bipolar disorders is suggested by a much lower ratio of attempts:suicide (approximately 3:1) than in the general population (approximately 30:1). Risk factors can help to identify patients at increased suicidal risk, but ongoing clinical assessment is essential to limit risk. Empirical short-term interventions to manage acute suicidal risk include close clinical supervision, rapid hospitalization, and electroconvulsive therapy. Remarkably, however, evidence of the long-term effectiveness of most treatments against suicidal behavior is rare. A notable exception is lithium prophylaxis, which is associated with consistent evidence of major (approximately 80%), sustained relative reductions of risk of suicides and attempts, and lower lethality (increased attempts:suicide ratio). Such benefits are unproved for other treatments commonly used to treat bipolar disorder patients, including anticonvulsants, antipsychotics, antidepressants, and psychosocial interventions. Applying available knowledge systematically, with close and sustained clinical supervision, can enhance management of suicidal risk in bipolar disorders patients. PMID:16816785
Baldessarini, Ross J; Pompili, Maurizio; Tondo, Leonardo
A sustainable riskmanagement approach includes the use of extensive scenario analyses to mitigate the risk of reduced revenues from changes in payment and volume. A successful riskmanagement program helps organizations prioritize strategies for risks that are likely to have the biggest impact on their business. Continually strengthening controls and mitigating risks through a riskmanagement program can help to build an effective security and compliance program. PMID:24968634
The paper is based on an ongoing research programme designed to identify how the concept of advanced management technology (AMT) techniques can be made more relevant to achieve world-class reliability (WCR). The question in this paper is which problems the management of manufacturing may encounter when it wants to organise the WCR management of the professional manufacturing more systematically. These
The field interrater reliability of three assessment tools frequently used by mental health professionals when evaluating sex offenders' risk for reoffending--the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) and the Static-99-was examined within the context of sexually violent predator program proceedings. Rater agreement was highest for the Static--99 (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC?] = .78) and lowest for the PCL-R (ICC? = .60; MnSOST-R ICC? = .74), although all instruments demonstrated lower field reliability than that reported in their test manuals. Findings raise concerns about the reliability of risk assessment tools that are used to inform judgments of risk in high-stake sexually violent predator proceedings. Implications for future research and suggestions for improving evaluator training to increase accuracy when informing legal decision making are discussed. PMID:22563984
Miller, Cailey S; Kimonis, Eva R; Otto, Randy K; Kline, Suzonne M; Wasserman, Adam L
Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) poses a significant burden on health and survival. Its severity ranges from asymptomatic, incidentally discovered subsegmental thrombi to massive, pressor-dependent PE complicated by cardiogenic shock and multisystem organ failure. Rapid and accurate risk stratification is therefore of paramount importance to ensure the highest quality of care. This article critically reviews currently available and emerging tools for risk-stratifying acute PE, and particularly for distinguishing between elevated (intermediate) and low risk among normotensive patients. We focus on the potential value of risk assessment strategies for optimizing severity-adjusted management. Apart from reviewing the current evidence on advanced early therapy of acute PE (thrombolysis, surgery, catheter interventions, vena cava filters), we discuss recent advances in oral anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists, and with new direct inhibitors of factor Xa and thrombin, which may contribute to profound changes in the treatment and secondary prophylaxis of venous thrombo-embolism in the near future. PMID:22961946
Various research undertaken over the past decade has improved our ability to assess and effectively manage contaminated sediments. Key to this improvement is a better understanding of the risks, both in time and space. Sediments can pose risks if contaminants are present in the biologically active zone of a water body or if transport processes can move contaminants into that zone. Conversely, effective management of contaminants can be accomplished by physically separating contaminants from the biologically active zone or hindering the transport processes that can result in contaminant migration. Both of these are accomplished by sediment capping, either conventional capping with a passive barrier such as sand, or, when greater control over mobile contaminants is required, by active capping in which amendments are used to retard any applicable transport processes. In this paper, the key transport and exposure processes are assessed and the ability to manage these risks with both passive and active capping evaluated. In summary, conventional sand capping can be effective in reducing exposures, while active capping can provide greater control; options include activated carbon/coke (to sequester organic compounds), organo-clays (to control nonaqueous phase and dissolved liquids), and clay polymers (to control permeability). Field demonstrations are underway on both coasts (including Portland, Oregon, and the Anacostia) to assess the effectiveness of various in-situ options, including organo-clay mats and other active caps. In addition, a unique in-situ sampling approach is demonstrating that pore water concentrations can be determined and employed to assess baseline or post-remedial risks due to contaminated sediments. Additional capping research is addressing issues such as gas release, treatment for other contaminants, and geotechnical tests to evaluate mobility of nonaqueous phase liquids due to cap loading and consolidation. Science and technology are combining to support more realistic risk assessments and practical management measures for contaminated sediments, with particular emphasis on in situ approaches. (authors)
Reible, D.D.; Lampert, D. [Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The Univ. of Texas at Austin (United States)
Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps the question is raised why a substantial number of events still is recorded - despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: Firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.
Fuchs, Sven; Keiler, Margreth; Sokratov, Sergey; Shnyparkov, Alexander
Spaceflight exposes astronauts to a host of environmental factors which could increase their risk for cancer. Epidemiological studies have shown an increased incidence of breast cancer in female commercial flight attendants, with occupational risk factors as one of the proposed mechanisms for the higher incidence in this cohort. Since female astronauts are exposed to similar occupational conditions as flight attendants, they too may be at an increased risk for breast cancer. With the planning of exploration class missions to the Moon and to Mars it is important to assess and minimize the risk for breast malignancy, and to have a well-defined protocol for the diagnosis and treatment of a breast mass discovered during a mission. Risk factors for development of breast cancer in the female astronaut include ionizing radiation, disrupted melatonin homeostasis secondary to circadian shifting, chemical exposure, and changes in immune function. Preflight, in-flight, and postflight screening and management modalities include imaging and fine needle aspiration (FNA). Employing such a strategy may provide a viable management approach in the case of a newly diagnosed breast mass inflight. PMID:17511296
Barr, Yael R; Bacal, Kira; Jones, Jeffrey A; Hamilton, Douglas R
A Fuzzy expeit system is developed and presented in this paper, suitable for landfill operation management- While, fuzzy logic has already been applied to landfill design, on the other hand it has not been applied to landfill operation management. The contribution of this paper is, therefore, to demonstrate a novel application of fuzzy logic in a critical and very complex
Ioannis M. Dokas; Dimitris A. Karras; D. C. a Panagiotakopoulos
Offers guidelines for riskmanagement to campus entertainers and their representatives, including options for insurance coverage, types of insurance policies, and riskmanagement for non-insurable factors associated with concerts and novelty events. (MSE)
The National RiskManagement Research Laboratory (NRMRL) developed a RiskManagement Evaluation (RME) to provide information needed to help plan future research in the Laboratory dealing with the environmental impact of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Agriculture...
This is the first update to the March 1987 publication entitled Risk Assessment, Management, Communication: A Guide to Selected Sources. The risk update series is divided into three major sections: Assessment, Management, and Communication. This update al...
Nuclear power plant projects have weathered volatile economic conditions and uncertain regulatory climates with varying degrees of success. Some electric utilities can point to excellent construction and operating records, while others have suffered continuous difficulties. Are the success stories the result of good luck or effective management. This article identifies the potential sources of financial risk in a nuclear project and describes several methods available to management for controlling financial liability. A commitment to the highest level of technical and managerial skills is cited as a necessary component of all successful nuclear undertakings. 4 references, 3 figures, 2 tables.
Efficient and effective implementation of quality management principles asks for aresponsible approach from top managers' perspectives. A study of the current state of affairs inCzech organizations discovers a lot of shortcomings in this field that can be changed to varymanagerial risks. The article identifies and analyses some of them and gives short guidance forappropriate treatment. Text of the article reflects the authors' experience as well as knowledgeobtained from the systematic analysis of industrial companies' environments.
Vykydal, David; Halfarová, Petra; Nenadál, Jaroslav; Plura, Ji?í; Hekelová, Edita
NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated potential risks within NASA, as well as the process for communicating and cooperating with other government agencies and industry partners, both domestic and international, to ensure mission success.
In an effort to improve organizational outcomes, including safety, in wildland fire management, researchers and practitioners have turned to a domain of research on organizational performance known as High Reliability Organizing1 (HRO). The HRO paradigm e...
The experience with the application of a database management system (DBMS) to handle the large amounts of data involved in distribution system reliability evaluation is reported. To demonstrate the capability of the DBMS in data manipulation, reliability evaluation of a distribution system in Taiwan is performed using a DBMS installed on an IBM PC-AT. It is found that using DBMS
Y.-Y. Hsu; L.-M. Chen; J.-L. Chen; M.-C. Hsueh; C. T. Lin; Y.-W. Chen; J. J. Chen; T. S. S. Liu; W. C. Chen; I. S. Chang
We compared entrepreneurs with bankers in their perception and management of a variety of risks. Problems included financial risk, risk to human life and health, and risk of a natural disaster. Cluster analysis and content analysis of think-aloud protocols revealed surprising details. Entrepreneurs accept risk as given and focus on controlling the outcomes at any given level of risk; they
Risk is an unavoidable phenomenon in construction projects. Proper risk allocation in construction contracts has therefore come to assume prominence because risk identification and risk allocation have a clear bearing on risk handling decisions. The proper management of risks requires that they be identified and allocated in a well?defined manner. This can only be achieved if contracting parties comprehend their
B. A. K. S. Perera; Indika Dhanasinghe; Raufdeen Rameezdeen
OF THE MASTER'S THESIS HELSINKI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGYAuthor: Olli KinnunenTitle of the thesis: Management of Project Risks in Logistics DevelopmentDate: 16.5.2000 Number of pages: 87Department: Department of Engineering Physics and MathematicsChair: Mat-2 Applied MathematicsSupervisor: Professor Ahti SaloInstructor: Christian MahrenholzThe thesis was made at the Logistics and Purchasing Department at Siemens Oy. Themotivation for the work came from need to prioritize...
Engineering Test Satellite - 8 (ETS-8) is the Japanese largest geo-synchronous satellite of 3 tons in mass, of which mission is mobile communications and navigation experiment. It is now in the flight model manufacturing phase. This paper introduces the riskmanagement taken in this project as a reference. The mission success criteria of ETS-8 are described at first. All the riskmanagement activities are planned taking these criteria into consideration. ETS-8 consists of many new technologies such as the large deployable antenna (19m x 17m), 64-bit MPU, 100 V solar paddle and so on. We have to pay attention to control these risk through each phase of development. In system design of ETS - 8, almost components have redundancy and there is some back-up function to avoid fatal failure. What kind of back-up function should be taken is one of the hot issues in this project. The consideration process is described as an actual case. In addition to conventional riskmanagement procedure, FMEA and identification of the critical items so on, we conducted the validation experiment in space by use of a scale model that was launched on Ariane 5. The decision to conduct this kind of experiment is taken after evaluation between risk and cost, because it takes a lot of resources of project. The effect of this experiment is also presented. Failure detection, isolation and reconfiguration in the flight software are more important as the satellite system becomes large and complicated. We did the independent verification and validation to the software. Some remarks are noted with respect to its effectiveness.
A field trial was conducted to evaluate the reliability of four widely used health risk appraisals (HRAs). A total of 338 randomly selected adults aged 25 to 65 years residing in the Boston metropolitan area completed an HRA on two occasions seven to 12 weeks apart. Test-retest reliability was assessed by comparing self-reported baseline risk scores to follow-up scores for heart attack risk and selected coronary heart disease risk factors. Respondents generally gave consistent reports for family history, cigarette smoking, and relative weight (test-retest r greater than .75), but self-reported scores for physiologic status (blood pressure and cholesterol) and lifestyle (diet, physical activity, and stress) were much less stable. Coefficients for heart attack risk and appraised age ranged from .43 to .87 for the four HRAs. The reliabilities of two self-scored instruments were greatly reduced by mathematical errors made by respondents when computing their heart attack risk scores. These results were not affected by the length of the follow-up period (seven to 12 weeks). PMID:2817186
In addition to measuring and monitoring financial risk, it is important for riskmanagers to understand how financial risky portfolios can be restructured effectively to reduce risk and maximize expected returns. Riskmanagement tools for market risk are largely based on Modern Portfolio Theory and assume that the profit and loss (or the return) distributions are normal. In a normal
As more and more variable resources and demand response resources being integrated in the electric grid, the grid operation is experiencing increasing level of uncertainties. The decision making process under such environment becomes more challenging. This paper investigates the current riskmanagement practices and proposes a riskmanagement framework for the future grid operation. Under this framework, three riskmanagement
This paper discusses the necessity of carrying out the riskmanagement of mining construction projects which on the basis of analyzing the status and the characteristics of mining construction project. The whole process of riskmanagement implementation plan has been developed from the objectives, methods, procedures and other aspects of the mining construction projects riskmanagement. Above that the paper
Firstly, this article introduce foreign theoretical research of riskmanagement in the subway tunnel project from four aspects that evaluation theory, management model, accident statistics, risk analysis. Secondly, the paper analyze foreign practice research of riskmanagement in the subway tunnel project from four aspects that computer simulation, information platform, standards, government regulations. Thirdly, the paper expatiate Chinese theoretical research
Fu Qixun; Wang Zhenzhong; Jia Tianjiao; Zhou Jianliang
Purpose – In this paper weekly volatility forecasts are considered with applications to riskmanagement; in particular hedge ratios and VaR calculations, with the aim of identifying the most appropriate model for riskmanagement practice. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The study considers a variety of models, including those typically employed within the riskmanagement industry, such as averaging and smoothing techniques, as
...Opportunity Title; RiskManagement Education and Outreach Partnerships...funds) to fund the RiskManagement Education and Outreach Partnerships...developed under the RiskManagement Education and Outreach...
...Opportunity Title: RiskManagement Education and Outreach Partnerships...funds) to fund the RiskManagement Education and Outreach Partnerships...developed under the RiskManagement Education and Outreach...
...Opportunity Title: RiskManagement Education and Outreach Partnerships...funds) to fund the RiskManagement Education and Outreach Partnerships...for Small Agricultural RiskManagement Education Sessions'' and...
The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the riskmanagement process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.
Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A. [Ecological Planning and Toxicology, Inc., Corvallis, OR (United States); Glicken, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
System reliability depends on the reliability of the system's components and the structure of the system. For example, in a competing risks model, the system fails when the weakest component fails. The reliability function and the quantile function of a complicated system are two important metrics for characterizing the system's reliability. When there are data available at the component level, the system reliability can be estimated by using the component level information. Confidence intervals (CIs) are needed to quantify the statistical uncertainty in the estimation. Obtaining system reliability CI procedures with good properties is not straightforward, especially when the system structure is complicated. In this paper, we develop a general procedure for constructing a CI for the system failure-time quantile function by using the implicit delta method. We also develop general procedures for constructing a CI for the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the system. We show that the recommended procedures are asymptotically valid and have good statistical properties. We conduct simulations to study the finite-sample coverage properties of the proposed procedures and compare them with existing procedures. We apply the proposed procedures to three applications; two applications in competing risks models and an application with a k-out-of-s system. The paper concludes with some discussion and an outline of areas for future research. PMID:23381812
...be applied to manage and mitigate risk during the acquisition of information...continuous collection and evaluation of risk-based assessment data; prototyping prior to implementation...benefits and returns; and focusing on risks and returns using quantifiable...
Adventure sport coaches practice in environments that are dynamic and high in risk, both perceived and actual. The inherent risks associated with these activities, individuals' responses and the optimal exploitation of both combine to make the processes of riskmanagement more complex and hazardous than the traditional sports where riskmanagement…
The banking environment is continuously changing. The comfort of an insulated environment offered by regulations in the past is on the fast wane. The resulting uncertainties are calling for risk identification, measurement and management. One such all-pervasive risk that banks face is operational risk. It is one of the oldest risks in banking that has been managed all along quite
Systematic riskmanagement is expecting the unexpected – it is a tool which helps control risks in construction projects. Its objective is to introduce a simple, practical method of identifying, assessing, monitoring and managingrisk in an informed and structured way. It provides guidance for implementing a risk control strategy that is appropriate to control construction projects at all levels.
Organisations have over the last couple of years become more aware of the importance of information security riskmanagement and its corresponding due diligence requirements. A cornucopia of information security riskmanagement approaches exist that can assist organisations in determining and controlling risks. However, with these choices organisations are finding it increasingly difficult to communicate the information security risks to
The authors discuss the riskmanagement (RM) of a residential development (RD) within the systems engineering (SE) context. The RM system is divided into sub-systems and the risks associated with each sub-system are analyzed. A risk assessment model for a cluster development is introduced. I. INTRODUCTION Risk and the management thereof plays an ever increasing role in modern engineering project
There is a paucity of test-retest reliability data for adolescent self-reports of a wide range of risk behaviours. Grade 8 and 11 Students (N=358) completed a questionnaire on two occasions between 10 and 14 days apart. It included items about use of various substances, violent behaviour, suicidality, and sexuality. Cohen's kappa was almost…
Flisher, Alan, J.; Evans, Janet; Muller, Martie; Lombard, Carl
Objective: To determine whether published subtypes of attachment disorder can be reliably identified by trained clinicians reviewing data from high-risk populations and to investigate the relationship between disorder classification and standardized measures of attachment behavior. Method: Twenty or more children aged 18 to 48 months and their…
Boris, Neil W.; Hinshaw-Fuselier, Sarah S.; Smyke, Anna T.; Scheeringa, Michael S.; Heller, Sherryl S.; Zeanah, Charles H.
Operational Riskmanagement, the least covered component of Enterprise Wide RiskManagement, needs intelligent tools to implement Comprehensive Emergency Management Programs. In this paper we discuss how an Intelligent Decision Support System (I-DSS), based on Fuzzy Logic, can be used for supporting the management of complex and critical systems, especially under contingency situations, with limited resources' availability. This I-DSS is
Pedro A. C. Sousa; J. P. Pimento; Rita Almeida Ribeiro
As an advanced management mode, the construction supply chain management is playing an increasingly important role in the fierce market competition. Construction supply chain management can not only increase the construction enterprises' profits, improve the core competitiveness, but also bring some risks. If we can not correctly identify, analyze and management these risks, the enterprises will suffer serious economic losses.
Incident data about disruptions to the electric power grid provide useful information that can be used as inputs into riskmanagement policies in the energy sector for disruptions from a variety of origins, including terrorist attacks. This article uses data from the Disturbance Analysis Working Group (DAWG) database, which is maintained by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), to look at incidents over time in the United States and Canada for the period 1990-2004. Negative binomial regression, logistic regression, and weighted least squares regression are used to gain a better understanding of how these disturbances varied over time and by season during this period, and to analyze how characteristics such as number of customers lost and outage duration are related to different characteristics of the outages. The results of the models can be used as inputs to construct various scenarios to estimate potential outcomes of electric power outages, encompassing the risks, consequences, and costs of such outages. PMID:17640207
Simonoff, Jeffrey S; Restrepo, Carlos E; Zimmerman, Rae
In the past, decisionmaking in wildland fire management generally has not included a full consideration of the risk and uncertainty that is inherent in evaluating alternatives. Fire management policies in some Federal land management agencies now require ...
These guidelines provide a handbook for use by federal organizations in structuring physical security and riskmanagement programs for their automatic data processing facilities. This publication discusses security analysis, natural disasters, supporting utilities, system reliability, procedural measures and controls, off-site facilities,…
National Bureau of Standards (DOC), Washington, DC.
This research focused on the challenges experienced when executing riskmanagement activities for information technology projects. The lack of adequate knowledge management support of riskmanagement activities has caused many project failures in the past. The research objective was to propose a conceptual framework of the Knowledge-Based Risk…
Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in riskmanagement strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts. PMID:16297230
This study describes the development of the WAVR-21, a structured professional judgment guide for the assessment of workplace targeted violence, and presents initial interrater reliability results. The 21-item instrument codes both static and dynamic risk factors and change, if any, over time. Five critical items or red flag indicators assess violent motives, ideation, intent, weapons skill, and pre-attack planning. Additional items assess the contribution of mental disorder, negative personality factors, situational factors, and a protective factor. Eleven raters each rated 12 randomly assigned cases from actual files of workplace threat scenarios. Summary interrater reliability correlation coefficients (ICCs) for overall presence of risk factors, risk of violence, and seriousness of the violent act were in the fair to good range, similar to other structured professional judgment instruments. A subgroup of psychologists who were coders produced an ICC of 0.76 for overall presence of risk factors. Some of the individual items had poor reliability for both clinical and statistical reasons. The WAVR-21 appears to improve the structuring and organizing of empirically based risk-relevant data and may enhance communication and decision making. PMID:23865721
The main cause of commanding errors is often (but not always) due to procedures. Either lack of maturity in the processes, incompleteness of requirements or lack of compliance to these procedures. Other causes of commanding errors include lack of understanding of system states, inadequate communication, and making hasty changes in standard procedures in response to an unexpected event. In general, it's important to look at the big picture prior to making corrective actions. In the case of errors traced back to procedures, considering the reliability of the process as a metric during its' design may help to reduce risk. This metric is obtained by using data from Nuclear Industry regarding human reliability. A structured method for the collection of anomaly data will help the operator think systematically about the anomaly and facilitate riskmanagement. Formal models can be used for risk based design and riskmanagement. A generic set of models can be customized for a broad range of missions.
Public health studies have shown that sleepiness at the wheel and other risks associated with sleep are responsible for 5% to 30% of road accidents, depending on the type of driver and/or road. In industrialized countries one-fifth of all traffic accidents can be ascribed to sleepiness behind the wheel. Sleep disorders and various common acute and chronic medical conditions together with lifestyles, extended work hours and prolonged wakefulness directly or indirectly affect the quality and quantity of one's sleep increasing the number of workers with sleep debt and staggered hours. These conditions may increase the risk of road accidents. Strategies to reduce this risk of both commercial and non-commercial drivers related to sleepiness include reliable diagnosis and treatment of sleep disorders, management of chronobiological conflicts, adequate catch-up sleep, and countermeasures against sleepiness at the wheel. Road transport safety requires the adoption of occupational health measures, including risk assessment, health education, technical-environmental prevention and health surveillance. PMID:23405652
We present ACES, an automated server provisioning system that aims to meet workload demand while minimizing energy consumption in data centers. To perform energy-aware server provisioning, ACES faces three key tradeoffs between cost, performance, and reliability: (1) maximizing energy savings vs. minimizing unmet load demand, (2) managing low power draw vs. high transition latencies for multiple power management schemes, and
An efficient, fuzzy expert system architecture is developed and presented, which is suitable for landfill operation reliabilitymanagement. Whereas fuzzy logic has already been applied to landfill design, on the other hand it has not been applied to landfill operation management. The contribution of this paper is, therefore, to demonstrate a novel application of fuzzy logic and, especially, of fuzzy
I. M. a Dokas; D.A.b Karras; D. C. a Panagiotakopoulos
A distributed database management system (DDBMS) manages a collection of data stored at various processing nodes of a computer network. Global queries are processed by DDBMS, and tasks (join operations in these queries) are assigned to various nodes in the network. Optimal allocation of these tasks are discussed, with reliability as the objective function and communication-cost as the constraint function.
Quantified risk assessment (QRA) needs mathematicization of risk theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among risk, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and riskmanagement were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management (MMEM) theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional model of riskmanagement was established that includes: a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation (GMO) model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart (operation dimension), which lays the groundwork for further study of riskmanagement and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) and RiskManagement was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization (IMO) is actively spreading, comes from RiskManagement theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this riskmanagement method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.
A methodology is described that enables to use safety management audit assessments and safety culture questionnaire results for estimating the reductions in the reliability of safety barriers in major hazard plants. The critical issue is the establishment of weight factors in combination with the anchoring of "good" safety management. A method is proposed to derive weight factors from statistical accident analysis in combination with a statistical analysis of safety management assessments at a representative sample of major hazard industries. A preliminary set of weight factors is presented with some examples of resulting reductions in reliability--this demonstration confirms that the set of weight factors needs further development. PMID:16107300
This paper presents an overview of some of the research projects, conducted for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) that deal with the question: How can an acceptable level of risk of a nuclear power plant be maintained throughout its design life. With a viewpoint that life extension planning for a plant can be viewed as a long-range, strategic maintenance program, the products of this research are discussed from the perspective of being elements that can tie day-to-day, plant operational tactical decisions on component/system reliability with long-range strategic maintenance goals. A common factor in addressing issues associated with design life and life extension is the issue of component aging and the reliability implications of aging. A time-dependent reliability model is described which contains some of the requisite ingredients and is built on a framework from which the component aging/component reliability issue can be addressed. By way of select examples, the additional work needed to further address plant lifetime reliability and risk is indicated.
The construction industry is plagued by risk, and poor performance has often been the result. Although riskmanagement techniques have been applied, the lack of a formalised approach has produced inconsistent results. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure is described to represent a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. The relationships between risk factors, risks, and their consequences
This paper discusses the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) activities to further the Proactive Management of Materials Degradation (PMMD), including those to determine the effectiveness of emerging NDE techniques. The paper discusses the first part of the development of a methodology to determine the effectiveness of these emerging NDE techniques for managing metallic degradation. This methodology draws on experience derived from evaluating techniques that have ‘emerged’ in the past. The methodology will follow five stages: a definition of inspection parameters, a technical evaluation, laboratory testing, round-robin testing, and the design of a performance demonstration program. This methodology will document the path taken for previous techniques and set a standardized course for future NDE techniques.
Doctor, Steven R.; Bond, Leonard J.; Cumblidge, Stephen E.; Hull, Amy; Malik, Shah
A major purpose of this paper is to provide a system approach to evaluate and analyze risks. Current riskmanagement techniques are reviewed briefly to identify shortcomings, and the connectivity of risk is introduced as background information. The Strategic Risk Register System (SRRS) is proposed by the authors as a new approach to analyze risks holistically and several techniques are
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for upstream supply chain riskmanagement linking risk identification, risk assessment and risk mitigation to risk performance and validate the model empirically. The effect of a continuous improvement process on identification, assessment, and mitigation is also included in the model. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – A literature review is undertaken to
Daniel Kern; Roger Moser; Evi Hartmann; Marco Moder
Despite to the initial attractions, the international projects are potentially high-risk and their negative impacts can affect international contractors if the risks are not identi- fied in the contracting phase. The implementation of an effi- cient riskmanagement process can reduce the negative im- pacts of identified risks which may in turn increase the profit of these companies. Risks of
Currently,Chinese agriculture is caught in the dilemma of high risks and low efficiency of riskmanagement due to lacking of management tools and system of integrated riskmanagement.By constructing the system of integrated riskmanagement of \\
The paper presents reliability and risk analysis of the RBMK-1500 reactor accident localization system (ALS) (confinement), which prevents radioactive releases to the environment. Reliability of the system was estimated and compared by two methods: the conventional fault tree method and an innovative dynamic reliability model, based on stochastic differential equations. Frequency of radioactive release through ALS was also estimated. The
In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.
In connection with the construction of four major liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in New York City, the New York City Fire Commissioner has asked NASA for assistance. It was decided that the Kennedy Space Center should develop a riskmanagement system (RMS) for the use of the New York Fire Department (NYFD). The RMS provides for a published set of safety regulations by the NYFD. A description of the RMS is presented as an example of an application of aerospace technology to a civilian sector, namely LNG facilities.
Electric power systems are experiencing dramatic changes with respect to structure, operation and regulation and are facing increasing pressure due to environmental and societal constraints. Bulk electric system reliability is an important consideration in power system planning, design and operation particularly in the new competitive environment. A wide range of methods have been developed to perform bulk electric system reliability evaluation. Theoretically, sequential Monte Carlo simulation can include all aspects and contingencies in a power system and can be used to produce an informative set of reliability indices. It has become a practical and viable tool for large system reliability assessment technique due to the development of computing power and is used in the studies described in this thesis. The well-being approach used in this research provides the opportunity to integrate an accepted deterministic criterion into a probabilistic framework. This research work includes the investigation of important factors that impact bulk electric system adequacy evaluation and security constrained adequacy assessment using the well-being analysis framework. Load forecast uncertainty is an important consideration in an electrical power system. This research includes load forecast uncertainty considerations in bulk electric system reliability assessment and the effects on system, load point and well-being indices and reliability index probability distributions are examined. There has been increasing worldwide interest in the utilization of wind power as a renewable energy source over the last two decades due to enhanced public awareness of the environment. Increasing penetration of wind power has significant impacts on power system reliability, and security analyses become more uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of wind power. The effects of wind power additions in generating and bulk electric system reliability assessment considering site wind speed correlations and the interactive effects of wind power and load forecast uncertainty on system reliability are examined. The concept of the security cost associated with operating in the marginal state in the well-being framework is incorporated in the economic analyses associated with system expansion planning including wind power and load forecast uncertainty. Overall reliability cost/worth analyses including security cost concepts are applied to select an optimal wind power injection strategy in a bulk electric system. The effects of the various demand side management measures on system reliability are illustrated using the system, load point, and well-being indices, and the reliability index probability distributions. The reliability effects of demand side management procedures in a bulk electric system including wind power and load forecast uncertainty considerations are also investigated. The system reliability effects due to specific demand side management programs are quantified and examined in terms of their reliability benefits.
Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their riskmanagement. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic riskmanagement. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of riskmanagement cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented riskmanagement actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of riskmanagement research. Apart from that, disaster riskmanagement activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic riskmanagement cycles for both Merapi and Bromo. Keywords: Riskmanagement, volcanoes hazard, Merapi and Bromo Volcano Indonesia
Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.
Several key strategies can be used to manage the risk associated with innovation to create maximum value. These include balancing the timing of investments versus cash flows, management of fads, prioritization across the company, savvy portfolio management, and a system of metrics that measure real success. Successful R&D managers will do whatever is necessary to manage the risks associated with an R&D program and stick to their long-term strategy. PMID:22432615
Starting from the general concept of risk, we set up an economic analysis framework for Disaster RiskManagement (DRM) investment. It builds on uncertainty management techniques - notably Monte Carlo simulations - and includes both a risk and performance metrics adapted to recurring issues in disaster riskmanagement as entertained by governments and international organisations. This type of framework proves to be enlightening in several regards, and is thought to ease the promotion of DRM projects as "investments" rather than "costs to be born" and allow for meaningful comparison between DRM and other sectors. We then look at the specificities of disaster risk investments of medium to large scales through this framework, where some "invariants" can be identified, notably: (i) it makes more sense to perform analysis over long-term horizons -space and time scales are somewhat linked; (ii) profiling of the fluctuations of the gains and losses of DRM investments over long periods requires the ability to handle possibly highly volatile variables; (iii) complexity increases with the scale which results in a higher sensitivity of the analytic framework on the results; (iv) as the perimeter of analysis (time, theme and space-wise) is widened, intrinsic parameters of the project tend to weight lighter. This puts DRM in a very different perspective from traditional modelling, which usually builds on more intrinsic features of the disaster as it relates to the scientific knowledge about hazard(s). As models hardly accommodate for such complexity or "data entropy" (they require highly structured inputs), there is a need for a complementary approach to understand risk at global scale. The proposed framework suggests opting for flexible ad hoc modelling of specific issues consistent with one's objective, risk and performance metrics. Such tailored solutions are strongly context-dependant (time and budget, sensitivity of the studied variable in the economic framework) and can range from simple elicitation of data from a subject matter expert to calibrate a probability distribution to more advanced stochastic modelling. This approach can be referred to more as a proficiency in the language of uncertainty rather than modelling per se in the sense that it allows for greater flexibility to adapt a given context. In a real decision making context, one seldom has neither time nor budget resources to investigate all of these variables thoroughly, hence the importance of being able to prioritize the level of effort among them. Under the proposed framework, this can be done in an optimised fashion. The point here consists in applying probabilistic sensitivity analysis together with the fundamentals of the economic value of information; the framework as built is well suited to such considerations, and variables can be ranked according to their contribution to risk understanding. Efforts to deal with second order uncertainties on variables prove to be valuable when dealing with the economic value of sample information.
In order to give adequate support to riskmanagers, new risk assessment methods should be developed that are (1) scientifically sound, (2) simplified, and (3) suited for precautionary riskmanagement. In this Perspective we propose that the notion of a precautionary default can be a useful tool in the development of such methods. A precautionary default is a cautious or
Per Sandin; Bengt-Erik Bengtsson; Åke Bergman; Ingvar Brandt; Lennart Dencker; Per Eriksson; Lars Förlin; Per Larsson; Agneta Oskarsson; Christina Rudén; Anders Södergren; Per Woin; Sven Ove Hansson
Beginning with the fact that performant strategies of the financial institutions have programmes and management procedures for the banking risks, which have as main objective to minimize the probability of risk generation and the bank’s potential exposure, this paper wants to present the operational riskmanagement and quantification methods. Also it presents the modality of minimum capital requirement for the
Barbu Teodora Cristina; Olteanu Ana Cornelia; Radu Alina Nicoleta
This paper presents a real-time process-oriented project risk analysis and management model which can be combined with the project general management, based on the hierarchical risk influence diagram which is constructed on the basis of network planning. Through network planning, it can solve the problems of the dynamic and overall identification of risk elements, and the showing and analysis of
It is important to manage the multifaceted risks associated with international construction projects, in particular in developing countries, not only to secure work but also to make profit. This research seeks to identify and evaluate these risks and their effective mitigation measures and to develop a riskmanagement framework which the international investors\\/developers\\/contractors can adopt when contracting construction work in
Shou Qing Wang; Mohammed Fadhil Dulaimi; Muhammad Yousuf Aguria
In the process of information project implementation of manufacturing enterprises, there are many risks, to set up a set of riskmanagement mechanism is guaranteed for them to succeed in ERP implementation. Firstly, based on the analysis of ERP project implementation of China, the paper introduced the riskmanagement methodology systems and the relative model, which includes three main steps,
Secretary Michael Chertoff has said that the core principle that animates the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is riskmanagement. Riskmanagement is a process of choosing trade-offs between available resources and the cost of minimizing the risk of ...
Health risks associated with long periods of time in flight are of concern to astronauts, crew members, and passengers. Many epidemiological studies showed that occupational and frequent flyers may be susceptible to ocular, cardiovascular, neurological, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, sensory, immunological, physiological, and even developmental disorders. In addition, the incidences of cancer and food poisoning are expected to be higher in such individuals. This article reviews health risks and risk factors associated with air travel, and discusses riskmanagement strategies. To reduce adverse health risks, risk factors such as radiation, infection, stress, temperature, pressure, and circadian rhythm need to be avoided or reduced to levels that are as low as technologically achievable to protect flight personnel and passengers. PMID:17454553
Suicide remains a serious health care problem and a sentinel event tracked by The Joint Commission. Nurses are pivotal in evaluating risk and preventing suicide. Analysis of nurses' barriers to riskmanagement may lead to interventions to improve management of suicidal patients. These data emerged from a random survey of 454 oncology nurses' attitudes, knowledge of suicide, and justifications for euthanasia. Instruments included a vignette of a suicidal patient and a suicide attitude questionnaire. Results. Psychological factors (emotions, unresolved grief, communication, and negative judgments about suicide) complicate the nurse's assessment and treatment of suicidal patients. Some nurses (n = 122) indicated that euthanasia was never justified and 11 were unsure of justifications and evaluated each case on its merits. Justifications for euthanasia included poor symptom control, poor quality of life, incurable illness or permanent disability, terminal illness, and terminal illness with inadequate symptom control or impending death, patient autonomy, and clinical organ death. The nurses indicated some confusion and misconceptions about definitions and examples of euthanasia, assisted suicide, and double effect. Strategies for interdisciplinary clinical intervention are suggested to identify and resolve these psychosocial barriers.
Recent emphasis within policy circles has been on transparent communication with consumers about food riskmanagement decisions and practices. As a consequence, it is important to develop best practice regarding communication with the public about how food risks are managed. In the current study, the provision of information about regulatory enforcement, proactive riskmanagement, scientific uncertainty and risk variability were manipulated in an experiment designed to examine their impact on consumer perceptions of food riskmanagement quality. In order to compare consumer reactions across different cases, three food hazards were selected (mycotoxins on organically grown food, pesticide residues, and a genetically modified potato). Data were collected from representative samples of consumers in Germany, Greece, Norway and the UK. Scores on the "perceived food riskmanagement quality" scale were subjected to a repeated-measures mixed linear model. Analysis points to a number of important findings, including the existence of cultural variation regarding the impact of risk communication strategies-something which has obvious implications for pan-European risk communication approaches. For example, while communication of uncertainty had a positive impact in Germany, it had a negative impact in the UK and Norway. Results also indicate that food riskmanagers should inform the public about enforcement of safety laws when communicating scientific uncertainty associated with risks. This has implications for the coordination of risk communication strategies between risk assessment and riskmanagement organizations. PMID:17945386
van Dijk, Heleen; Houghton, Julie; van Kleef, Ellen; van der Lans, Ivo; Rowe, Gene; Frewer, Lynn
Risk analysis and management is nowadays a critical factor to successful construction project management, as construction projects tend to be more complex, dynamic, always unique, and competition increasingly tougher. riskmanagement helps the project participants—client, contractor or developer, consultant, and supplier—to meet their commitments and minimize negative impacts on construction project scope, cost, schedule (and quality, as a Result). The
This paper presents a new perspective on the value of corporate riskmanagement. Using the basic principles of industrial economics, we characterize the real activities of the firm, en- compassing production and operations management and real riskmanagement activities, by postulating a transformation possibility frontier for the cash flows of the firm. We show how external changes in the market
Describes the use of the At-Risk Program Management approach to project-delivery management, an approach that guarantees results for time, scope, quality, and cost for all components of project delivery while incorporating any combination of delivery methods. Explores its general parameters and the role of the at-risk program manager, as well as…
This paper is designed to acquaint the outdoor professional with the riskmanagement decision making process required for the operation and management of outdoor adventure activities. The document examines the programming implications of fear in adventure activities; the riskmanagement process in adventure programming; a definition of an…
The discipline of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has become so mature in recent years that it is now being used routinely to assist decision-making throughout the nuclear industry. This includes decision-making that affects design, construction, operation, maintenance, and regulation. Unfortunately, not all sub-areas within the larger discipline of PRA are equally mature,'' and therefore the many different types of engineering insights from PRA are not all equally reliable. 93 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.
This document contains failure rate screening data for application to fusion components. The screening values are generally fission or aerospace industry failure rate estimates that can be extrapolated for use by fusion system designers, reliability engineers and risk analysts. Failure rate estimates for tritium-bearing systems, liquid metal-cooled systems, gas-cooled systems, water-cooled systems and containment systems are given. Preliminary system availability
This document contains failure rate screening data for application to fusion components. The screening values are generally fission or aerospace industry failure rate estimates that can be extrapolated for use by fusion system designers, reliability engineers and risk analysts. Failure rate estimates for tritium-bearing systems, liquid metal-cooled systems, gas-cooled systems, water-cooled systems, vacuum systems, plasma heating systems, and containment systems
This report addresses the general data requirements for reliability analysis of fielded wind turbines and other wind plant equipment. The report provides a rationale for why this data should be collected, a list of the data needed to support reliability and availability analysis, and specific data recommendations for a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) to support automated analysis. This data collection recommendations report was written by Sandia National Laboratories to address the general data requirements for reliability analysis of operating wind turbines. This report is intended to help develop a basic understanding of the data needed for reliability analysis from a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) and other data systems. The report provides a rationale for why this data should be collected, a list of the data needed to support reliability and availability analysis, and specific recommendations for a CMMS to support automated analysis. Though written for reliability analysis of wind turbines, much of the information is applicable to a wider variety of equipment and analysis and reporting needs. The 'Motivation' section of this report provides a rationale for collecting and analyzing field data for reliability analysis. The benefits of this type of effort can include increased energy delivered, decreased operating costs, enhanced preventive maintenance schedules, solutions to issues with the largest payback, and identification of early failure indicators.
For energy utilities faced with expanded jurisdictional energy efficiency requirements and pursuing demand-side management (DSM) incentive programs in the large industrial sector, performance incentive programs can be an effective means to maximize the reliability of planned energy savings. Performance incentive programs balance the objectives of high participation rates with persistent energy savings by: (1) providing financial incentives and resources to minimize constraints to investment in energy efficiency, and (2) requiring that incentive payments be dependent on measured energy savings over time. As BC Hydro increases its DSM initiatives to meet the Clean Energy Act objective to reduce at least 66 per cent of new electricity demand with DSM by 2020, the utility is faced with a higher level of DSM risk, or uncertainties that impact the costeffective acquisition of planned energy savings. For industrial DSM incentive programs, DSM risk can be broken down into project development and project performance risks. Development risk represents the project ramp-up phase and is the risk that planned energy savings do not materialize due to low customer response to program incentives. Performance risk represents the operational phase and is the risk that planned energy savings do not persist over the effective measure life. DSM project development and performance risks are, in turn, a result of industrial economic, technological and organizational conditions, or DSM risk factors. In the BC large industrial sector, and characteristic of large industrial sectors in general, these DSM risk factors include: (1) capital constraints to investment in energy efficiency, (2) commodity price volatility, (3) limited internal staffing resources to deploy towards energy efficiency, (4) variable load, process-based energy saving potential, and (5) a lack of organizational awareness of an operation's energy efficiency over time (energy performance). This research assessed the capacity of alternative performance incentive program models to manage DSM risk in BC. Three performance incentive program models were assessed and compared to BC Hydro's current large industrial DSM incentive program, Power Smart Partners -- Transmission Project Incentives, itself a performance incentive-based program. Together, the selected program models represent a continuum of program design and implementation in terms of the schedule and level of incentives provided, the duration and rigour of measurement and verification (M&V), energy efficiency measures targeted and involvement of the private sector. A multi criteria assessment framework was developed to rank the capacity of each program model to manage BC large industrial DSM risk factors. DSM riskmanagement rankings were then compared to program costeffectiveness, targeted energy savings potential in BC and survey results from BC industrial firms on the program models. The findings indicate that the reliability of DSM energy savings in the BC large industrial sector can be maximized through performance incentive program models that: (1) offer incentives jointly for capital and low-cost operations and maintenance (O&M) measures, (2) allow flexible lead times for project development, (3) utilize rigorous M&V methods capable of measuring variable load, process-based energy savings, (4) use moderate contract lengths that align with effective measure life, and (5) integrate energy management software tools capable of providing energy performance feedback to customers to maximize the persistence of energy savings. While this study focuses exclusively on the BC large industrial sector, the findings of this research have applicability to all energy utilities serving large, energy intensive industrial sectors.
Societal riskmanagement is defined and the hazards to which society might be exposed are noted. Nine alternative taxonomies are suggested which categorize risk by the situation in which the risk is encountered, by the cause of the risk, by the risk itsel...
A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit riskmanagement policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and activities it undertakes. The policy must address at a minimum: (1) The approval process associated with credit...
This column is the fourth in a series describing a model for therapeutic riskmanagement of the suicidal patient. Previous columns presented an overview of the therapeutic riskmanagement model, provided recommendations for how to augment risk assessment using structured assessments, and discussed the importance of risk stratification in terms of both severity and temporality. This final column in the series discusses the safety planning intervention as a critical component of therapeutic riskmanagement of suicide risk. We first present concerns related to the relatively common practice of using no-suicide contracts to managerisk. We then present the safety planning intervention as an alternative approach and provide recommendations for how to use this innovative strategy to therapeutically mitigate risk in the suicidal patient. PMID:24847995
Matarazzo, Bridget B; Homaifar, Beeta Y; Wortzel, Hal S
The prospects and challenges of riskmanagement are discussed in this research based on interviews and literature analysis. The literature survey covered selected articles, reports and other publications, and gives a comprehensive view of the risk managem...
This paper proposes an application of data mining to medical riskmanagement, where data mining techniques were applied to detection, analysis and evaluation of risks potentially existing in clinical environments. We applied this technique to the following two medical domains: risk aversion of nurse incidents and infection control. The results show that data mining methods were effective to detection and aversion of risk factors.
The need for more effective ways to manage the risk and safety of technological systems has been widely recognized and accepted by government and industry. Traditionally, risk analysis has been considered as part of the process of planning a technological system and addressed the risk inherent in its day-to-day operations. However, risk must also be considered when responding to episodic
In this paper we introduce the notion of data supply chain management and draw parallels between supply chain management and developing a data product. Then we discuss information sharing in supply chain management and discuss risks and incentives for inf...
There are both incentives and challenges for applying formal riskmanagement processes to buildings and other structures, including bridges, highways, dams, stadiums, shopping centers, and private dwellings. Based on an assessment of several issues, the authors conclude that for certain types of buildings and structures the time has come for the use of a formal risk-management approach, including probabilistic risk assessment methods, to help identify dominant risks to public health, safety, and security and to help manage these risks in a cost-effective manner.
As NASA Project RiskManagement activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate riskmanagement processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and managerisks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective riskmanagement. Applying an integrated approach to riskmanagement makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better riskmanagement and ultimately improve the chances for mission success.
The paper systematically combed the EPC mode pipeline riskmanagement process, established a riskmanagement system, with some guidance and strong operational, available pipeline construction project riskmanagement practice, after Pipeline EPC project riskmanagement will be a great reference value. Research ideas and analysis on the EPC general contract project riskmanagement, and other modes of long-distance pipeline risk
Stroke is an uncommon but increasingly recognised cause of mortality and long-term neurological morbidity in children. A significant number of these events appear to be caused by thromboembolic disease and, as with other childhood thrombotic problems, the incidence of central nervous system events appears highest during the neonatal period. In contrast to peripheral arterial and venous thrombotic problems, it is likely that a proportion of cerebral thromboembolic events occur either in utero or perinatally and reflect different risk factors from those occurring in older infants and children. The pathophysiology of perinatal stroke is complex and in many cases is likely to be multifactorial. It is now recognised that risk factors may relate to both maternal and placental problems as well as fetal and neonatal disorders. Large prospective studies of perinatal stroke are currently lacking and efforts to define the relative contribution from each of these areas are at an early stage. The complex nature of these disorders requires collaboration between a number of different disciplines including obstetrics, fetal medicine, pathology, neonatology and neurology. Of particular interest to haematologists is the possible impact of prothrombotic abnormalities in the pathophysiology of these events and also the potential for the use of antithrombotic agents in both management and prevention. PMID:16042683
There are at least nine major cancer susceptibility syndromes that infer an increased risk for colorectal cancer and/or colorectal polyposis; hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer syndrome, Muir-Torre syndrome, Turcot syndrome, the I1307K polymorphism of the APC gene, familial adenomatous polyposis, attenuated familial adenomatous polyposis, Peutz Jeghers syndrome, juvenile polyposis, and the PTEN hamartoma tumor syndrome. As a result, the differential diagnosis of hereditary colorectal cancer can be complex. In addition, there has been a dramatic increase in the knowledge available regarding risk assessment and management of hereditary colorectal cancer syndromes. The literature was reviewed to develop this concise review of the hereditary colorectal cancer syndromes to facilitate the accurate diagnosis of each syndrome and the appropriate medical care for individuals with these diagnoses. Referral to a qualified Clinical Cancer Genetics program is appropriate if any of these syndromes is suspected and they will ensure the most up-to-date information is available to the patient, their family, and their health care professionals. PMID:11005140
This research establishes that sustainability appraisal (SA) has a role to play in strengthening spatial plans in the context of flooding issues. Indeed, evidence has been gathered to indicate that tentative steps are being taken in this direction during the SA of English regional spatial plans, which are used as an illustrative case study. In England as in many other countries, appraisal procedures including SA and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are enshrined in planning law. An opportunity therefore exists to utilise existing and familiar planning tools to embed flooding considerations within spatial plans at an early stage in the planning process. SA (and similar appraisal tools such as SEA) can therefore usefully aid in the implementation of decision making principles and government policy relating to flooding. Moreover, with the threats associated with climate change becoming increasingly apparent, of which increased flood risk is a particular concern in many countries, there is a need develop appropriate adaptation responses. This article emphasizes the role that SA can play in managing future flood risk in this context.
Carter, Jeremy G. [University of Manchester, School of Environment and Development, Oxford Road, Manchester M14 9PL (United Kingdom)], E-mail: Jeremy.Carter@manchester.ac.uk; White, Iain [University of Manchester, School of Environment and Development, Oxford Road, Manchester M14 9PL (United Kingdom)], E-mail: Iain.White@manchester.ac.uk; Richards, Juliet [University of Manchester, School of Environment and Development, Oxford Road, Manchester M14 9PL (United Kingdom)], E-mail: email@example.com
The aim of this study is to translate into the Turkish language, and test the reliability and validity, of the Turkish version of the Constipation Risk Assessment Scale (CRAS). This study consisted of 245 adult in-patients who were hospitalized in the medical and surgical clinics of Celal Bayar University Hospital in January through May 2007. The patients were categorized into two groups (constipated and not constipated) according to Rome II criteria. All participants were assessed with the CRAS. The CRAS was retested on 32 patients selected randomly from among the initial constipated group (n =152). The statistical analysis consisted of reliability and validity analyses. Test-retest comparison and internal consistency were used to assess the reliability of the instrument. Divergence and known groups approaches were used to test for construct validity. Correlation analysis using the Pearson's coefficient was conducted to assess the test-retest. For testing of the criteria and known groups, Student's t test and Mann-Whitney U test were used. Cronbach's = value for the constipated respondents was r = 61.9. According to the effect size comparisons, the most effective variable on the CRAS score was perception of constipation risk requirement. The overall score and subsection score correlations were also found acceptable (r = 0.47-0.57). PMID:21637085
Kutlu, Adalet Koca; Yilmaz, Emel; Ceçen, Dilek; Eser, Erhan
As semiconductor processing technology continues to scale down, managingreliability becomes an increasingly difficult challenge in high-performance microprocessor design. Transient faults, also known as soft errors, corrupt program data at the circuit level and cause incorrect program execution and system crashes. Future processors will consist of billions of transistors organized as multicore microarchitectures. Packaging multiple cores (and hence more transistors)
The purpose of this study is to develop a valid and reliable assessment tool for use in determining the competency beliefs of school administrators about innovation management. The scale applied to a study group of 216 school administrators, after work Centered on assessing intelligibility and specialized opinion. Exploratory and confirmatory…
Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve riskmanagement problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the iong-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.
Table of Contents: Status of Natural Gas Pipeline RiskManagement in Canada and Europe; Approaches to Accidental Release RiskManagement for Flammable Substancs; U.S. Approach to RiskManagement for Natural Gas Pipelines; Management System Approaches for ...
R. M. Cowgill G. B. DeWolf M. R. Harrison K. Leewis B. J. Selig T. M. Shires T. L. Willke
Team RiskManagement is a new paradigm for managing programs for projects by developing a shared product vision, focused on results, and using the principles and tools of riskmanagement to cooperatively managerisks and opportunities. This report will fa...
R. P. Higuera A. J. Dorofee J. A. Walker R. C. Williams
A Simplified Risk Model (SRM) is being developed to support environmental restoration and waste management (EM) planning activities. The SRM is designed to be able to quantitatively estimate risk for various EM alternatives within hours or days, given limited information about the processes covered within the alternative. The risk model covers radiological, chemical, and industrial risk from both accidents and normal, incident free operations. A simple risk equation is used to model accident risk. Normal, incident free operation risk is modeled using a multiplier on accident risk. Ongoing applications of the SRM are expected to lead to significant improvements to the model in the near future.
Introduction Planning for ways to reduce wildfire risk to communities and historic structures is an important element of modern land management. Wildfire riskmanagement is most successful if it is based on the best available science and incorporates reliable information on the ecological characteristics of the target landscape. It is also important to have explicit social and ecological objectives that
The ARRAMIS risk and reliability analysis software suite developed by Sandia National Laboratories enables analysts to evaluate the safety and reliability of a wide range of complex systems whose failure results in high consequences. This software was originally designed to model the systems, responses, and phenomena associated with potential severe accidents at commercial nuclear power reactors by solving very large fault tree and event tree models. However, because of its power and versatility, ARRAMIS and its constituent analysis engines have recently been used to evaluate a wide variety of systems, including nuclear weapons, telecommunications facilities, robotic material handling systems, and aircraft systems using hybrid fault tree event tree analysis techniques incorporating fully integrated uncertainty analysis capabilities. This paper describes recent applications in the area of nuclear reactor accident progression analysis using a large event tree methodology and the ARRAMIS package.
Wyss, Gregory D.; Daniel, Sharon L.; Hays, Kelly M.; Brown, Thomas D.
A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure
Riskmanagement involves tracking market and non-market long-range risks, understanding their adverse impact on the business environment, and managerial responses to reduce risk exposure. As an emerging market, South Africa poses a challenging array of long-term political, economic, financial and operational risks to investors. Risks such as concerns about increased costs, lack of transparency, limited capacity to enforce the rule
Market Trading and RiskManagement of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - RiskManagement - Market Trading Strategies
Market Trading and RiskManagement of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - RiskManagement - Market Trading Strategies
Market Trading and RiskManagement of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - RiskManagement - Market Trading Strategies
Valid consent is an absolute requirement of ethically correct treatment. This second article, in a series covering the management of risk, defines consent but also describes the role that appropriate consent, through good communication, plays in clinical and ethical riskmanagement and the reduction of complaints. Clinical Relevance: Valid consent is fundamental to the ethical and legal treatment of patients. PMID:24839712
This document outlines the scope of National RiskManagement Laboratory (NRMRL) riskmanagement research in the area of ecosystem restoration. NRMRL is uniquely positioned to make substantial contributions to ecosystem science because of its in-house expertise relative to surfac...
This article characterizes the production process of commercial banks as three components:service activities, investment-related activities, and riskmanagement activities, and assesses performance for these components, including service efficiency, investment efficiency, and riskmanagement efficiency. With data from 36 Taiwanese commercial banks in the fiscal year 2009, we demonstrated how all the efficiency indices can be estimated. The major empirical findings
Disputes concerning industrial legacies such as the disposal of toxic wastes illustrate changing pressures on corporations and governments. Business and governments are now confronted with managing the expectations of a society increasingly aware of the social and environmental impacts and risks associated with economic development and demanding more equitable distribution and democratic management of such risks. The closed managerialist decision-making
This study analyzes the risk-taking behavior of mutual funds in response to their rel- ative performance over the 1992 to 1999 period. Our results show that managers of funds whose performance is closer to that of the top performing funds have greater incentives to increase their portfolios' risk than managers at the top who exhibit a tendency to lock in
The financial crisis of 2008 and the resulting recession caught many companies unprepared and, in so doing, provided a stark reminder of the importance of effective riskmanagement. While academic theory has long touted the benefits of riskmanagement, companies have varied greatly in the ways and extent to which they put theory into practice.Drawing on a global survey of
Software projects are increasingly geographically distributed with limited face-to-face interaction between participants. These projects face particular challenges that need careful managerial attention. While riskmanagement has been adopted with success to address other challenges within software development, there are currently no frameworks available for managingrisks related to geographical distribution. On this background, we systematically review the literature on geographically
John Stouby Persson; Lars Mathiassen; Jesper Boeg; Thomas Stenskrog Madsen; Flemming Steinson
In this paper, we argue that vulnerability is a new perspective in riskmanagement. Organizational vulnerability is identified by lack of adaptive capacity and resilience and these two elements determine the success of organizational riskmanagement simultaneously. We believe that emerging insights into organizational vulnerability complement and can significantly add to a converging research agenda on the challenges faced by
This booklet, intended for trustees of institutions of higher education, offers some instruction on the principles of riskmanagement. Introductory information provides a definition of riskmanagement, which is seen as a planning and strategic function, not solely as a financial or safety assessment. Individual sections then address the following…
A survey of 652 adventure recreation agencies in higher education settings examined the use of riskmanagement practices and the relationships between agency characteristics and riskmanagement techniques. The survey contained 27 Likert Scale questions divided into four categories (agency guidance, staff development, participant education, and…
The only way to slow the spiraling costs of new prescriptive pipeline regulations is to develop an effective risk-management program, one that will focus on the highest priority safety issues not minimum compliance with regulation. If applied systematically and rigorously, riskmanagement can help pipeline operators focus on safety issues specific to their own systems. These operators have a greater
T. L. Willke; T. M. Shires; R. M. Cowgill; B. J. Selig
This paper sets out the results of a study into the use of riskmanagement in the conceptual phase of the construction project development cycle in the Australian construction industry. The study consisted of a literature review, a survey to examine skill levels and attitudes of key players to riskmanagement, and their attitude to change. Various structural factors concerned
Before proceeding with a project, a client has to choose an appropriate procurement option that facilitates an effective project organization in general and a thorough riskmanagement process in particular. By identifying three procurement variables that have a major influence on riskmanagement: project delivery method, form of payment, and use of collaboration or partnering arrangements, the effect of each
Although most disasters are not entirely unexpected and therefore can, to varying degrees, be mitigated for, the UK construction sector does not play a sufficiently integrated role in disaster riskmanagement. Research is reported on the development of a knowledge database and decision support framework to enable more effective disaster risk-management strategies from a construction perspective. A survey of UK
Lee Bosher; Andrew Dainty; Patricia Carrillo; Jacqueline Glass; Andrew Price
The initial release of the National Ignition Facility (AUF) RiskManagement Plan (LLNL, 1997a) was prepared in accordance with the DOE Life Cycle Asset Management Good Practice Guide (DOE, 1996a) and supported Critical Decision 3 (CD3), Approval to Initiate Construction (DOE, 1997a). The objectives of the plan were to: (1) Identify the risks to the completion of the Project in
The National Ignition Facility (NIF) RiskManagement Plan (LLNL, 1997a) was originally prepared in 1997 in accordance with the Department of Energy (DOE) Life Cycle Asset Management Good Practice Guide (DOE, 1996a) and supported NIF Critical Decision 3, approval to initiate construction (DOE, 1997a). The plan was updated in 1998 to reflect realized risks such as the finding and successful
This plan was prepared by the National RiskManagement Research Laboratory (NRMRL) of EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) to guide the riskmanagement aspects of the urban wet weather flow (WWF) research for the next five years. There are three types of urban WWF dis...
Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to determine if owners of small manufacturing companies manage supply risk in similar ways and identify the practices constituting this potential joint approach. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – An interpretive case based methodology was applied in this research. Interview data on the supply riskmanagement practices of 11 SCOs (small company owners) were analysed. Findings
Ideas from a USA-FRG conference on riskmanagement are presented. In general, the difficulties confronted by riskmanagement authorities in the two countries are similar, from discovering important risks at an early stage to setting acceptable goals. Government regulation is overburdened and somewhat inefficient in both countries, leading to greater search for alternatives. The many differences in approach between the two countries can inform both. German riskmanagement is done largely through negotiations among the affected parties; when this does not resolve a dispute, a specialized administrative court takes charge. In both countries nonregulatory methods of managingrisk should be enhanced and given a larger role. A matrix of riskmanagement method versus criteria proved stimulating in comparing and ranking approaches. The conceptual differences between managing discrete events and chronic exposures have not been appreciated. Although uncertainty and probability are involved in both, there are qualitative differences in both analysis and management. Public perceptions of risk and the role these should play have been characterized by ''objectivist'' and ''subjectivist'' positions. In the former view, risks are subject to analysis, are calculable, and the public must be educated to accept the conclusions of experts. In the latter view what people perceive is what is most important, both psychologically and politically, and the risk experts must understand public fears and desires. These are important opportunities for cross cultural studies.
Risks, uncertainties in firms and their environment are increasingly dealt with strategic planning, risk analysis and riskmanagement. The present state of strategic planning enables us to consider the greatest part of internal and environmental risks mainly qualitatively - due to the fact that the majority of planning models used are of a deterministic type.
The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.
Byers, James Clifford; Gertman, David Ira; Hill, Susan Gardiner; Blackman, Harold Stabler; Gentillon, Cynthia Ann; Hallbert, Bruce Perry; Haney, Lon Nolan
The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.
J. C. Byers; D. I. Gertman; S. G. Hill; H. S. Blackman; C. D. Gentillon; B. P. Hallbert; L. N. Haney
Background:Nutrition risk screening for community-living seniors is of great interest in the health arena. However, to be useful, nutrition risk indices need to be valid and reliable. The following three studies describe construct validation, test–retest and inter-rater reliability of SCREEN II.Methods:Study (1) seniors were recruited from the general community and from a geriatrician's clinic to complete a nutritional assessment and
Most senior police officials are competent when it comes to assessing and managing physical risk during the course of law enforcement activities. Some even have aptitude for managing sociopolitical risks, but they are much rarer and are usually found in larger departments, which can afford to send senior officers to public speaking and media-management courses. There are tools that can be adapted from industrial safety to aid in managing sociopolitical risks in law enforcement activities. One such tool is the HAZards and OPerability Study (HAZOPS)tool1. This tool is basically a systemic method of performing 'what if' studies. This tool, and some others, are described in this paper.
The 5th Aquatic Animal Models for Human Disease meeting follows four previous meetings (Hinton et al., 2009; Schmale et al., 2007; Schmale, 2004; Nairn et al., 2001) in which advances in aquatic animal models for human disease research were reported, and community discussion of future direction was pursued. At this meeting, discussion at a workshop entitled Bioinformatics and Computational Biology with Web-based Resources (20 September 2010) led to an important conclusion: Aquatic model research using feral and experimental fish, in combination with web-based access to annotated anatomical atlases and toxicological databases, yield data that advance our understanding of human gene function, and can be used to facilitate environmental management and drug development. We propose here that the effects of genes and environment are best appreciated within an anatomical context - the specifically affected cells and organs in the whole animal. We envision the use of automated, whole-animal imaging at cellular resolution and computational morphometry facilitated by high-performance computing and automated entry into toxicological databases, as anchors for genetic and toxicological data, and as connectors between human and model system data. These principles should be applied to both laboratory and feral fish populations, which have been virtually irreplaceable sentinals for environmental contamination that results in human morbidity and mortality. We conclude that automation, database generation, and web-based accessibility, facilitated by genomic/transcriptomic data and high-performance and cloud computing, will potentiate the unique and potentially key roles that aquatic models play in advancing systems biology, drug development, and environmental riskmanagement.
Cheng, Keith C.; Hinton, David E.; Mattingly, Carolyn J.; Planchart, Antonio
The 5th Aquatic Animal Models for Human Disease meeting follows four previous meetings (Nairn et al., 2001; Schmale, 2004; Schmale et al., 2007; Hinton et al., 2009) in which advances in aquatic animal models for human disease research were reported, and community discussion of future direction was pursued. At this meeting, discussion at a workshop entitled Bioinformatics and Computational Biology with Web-based Resources (20 September 2010) led to an important conclusion: Aquatic model research using feral and experimental fish, in combination with web-based access to annotated anatomical atlases and toxicological databases, yields data that advance our understanding of human gene function, and can be used to facilitate environmental management and drug development. We propose here that the effects of genes and environment are best appreciated within an anatomical context - the specifically affected cells and organs in the whole animal. We envision the use of automated, whole-animal imaging at cellular resolution and computational morphometry facilitated by high-performance computing and automated entry into toxicological databases, as anchors for genetic and toxicological data, and as connectors between human and model system data. These principles should be applied to both laboratory and feral fish populations, which have been virtually irreplaceable sentinals for environmental contamination that results in human morbidity and mortality. We conclude that automation, database generation, and web-based accessibility, facilitated by genomic/transcriptomic data and high-performance and cloud computing, will potentiate the unique and potentially key roles that aquatic models play in advancing systems biology, drug development, and environmental riskmanagement. PMID:21763781
Cheng, Keith C; Hinton, David E; Mattingly, Carolyn J; Planchart, Antonio
This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to an aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.
Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane
In this article the results of explorative research into the validity and reliability of a Dutch version of the Bradenscale are described. The Bradenscale is a risk assessment tool for measuring the risk of developing pressure sores. With a prospective longitudinal design the Bradenscale has been investigated in a hospital and a community setting in Belgium and the Netherlands. Results of the research in hospital indicate a fair to moderate agreement with respect to interraterreliability and a reasonable amount of predictive validity. In the community care setting interraterreliability indicates slight to fair agreement while predictive validity could not be established due to several reasons. Further research into the Bradenscale is recommended considering the limited research population in both studies and the results in community care. PMID:9516819
Contracting overseas construction projects is usually considered a ‘high risk business’, mostly because of a lack of adequate overseas environmental information and overseas construction experience. Similar construction projects may have totally different risk characteristics in different regions. It is difficult for a newcomer to identify new risks in a new environment. It is more difficult to assess these risks and
Discussions of financial risk often fail to distinguish between risks that are consciously borne and those that are not. To understand the breeding conditions for financial crises the prime focus of concern should not be simply on large risk-taking per se, but on the unintended, or unanticipated accumulation of large risks by individuals, institutions or governments, often through the lack
Mario Draghi; Francesco Giavazzi; Robert C. Merton
The assessment of overall residual risk is the primary objective of performing risk-management activities and is required by ISO 14971:2000-Application of RiskManagement to Medical Devices. Despite this requirement, much confusion remains among medical-device manufacturers and the various regulatory-approval bodies as to what is required. Today, many medical-device manufacturers do not formally address the subject. This paper will address the
\\u000a Risk analysis and management are important capabilities in intelligent information and knowledge systems. We present a new\\u000a approach using directed graph based models for risk analysis and management. Our modelling approach is inspired by and builds\\u000a on the two level approach of the Transferable Belief Model. The credal level for risk analysis and model construction uses beliefs in causal inference
For most of the last forty years, corporate defined benefit pension plan assets have been managed to balance risk versus reward in more or less the same way that a risk averse individual would do with his own portfolio. Recently liability cognizant strategies have been developed, but these also attempt to balance risks and rewards. But pension plans are not
Software development involves plenty of risks, and errors exist in software modules represent a major kind of risk. Software defect prediction techniques and tools that identify software errors play a crucial role in software riskmanagement. Among software defect prediction techniques, classification is a commonly used approach. Various types of classifiers have been applied to software defect prediction in recent
Yi Peng; Gang Kou; Guoxun Wang; Honggang Wang; Franz I. S. Ko
Genetic transformation constitutes a new tool for improvement of microorganisms, animals and plants used in food. We present foreseeable risks, as well as management measures to avoid unsuspected risks of GMOs. Few risks are specific to GMOs. Present elements of French and European regulations concerning placing on the market and follow up GMOs and other novel foods are described. PMID:12668946
Information and communication technology is applied by law enforcement agencies in intelligence and investigation work. Assessment\\u000a of risk caused by criminal gangs is an example of risk and technology in policing. This paper applies the knowledge management\\u000a technology stage model to criminal risk assessment.
The paper is going to quantify the mitigation of the insurance as a risk mitigant in operational riskmanagement for the commercial bank. Due to the uncertainties associated with the insurance policy, such as counterparty default, payment uncertainty and the liquidity risk (i.e., delayed payment), the recovery amounts are subjected to be kind of uncertainty. Thus, the efficiency of insurance
Two management alternatives for radioactive scrap metal were evaluated: (1) recycling and reuse, and (2) disposal and replacement. The human health risks, environmental impacts, and sociopolitical issues potentially associated with these alternatives were assessed in an international context. For each alternative, the health risks from workplace and transportation accidents are greater in magnitude than the risks from potential exposure to
Macro Markets puts forward a unique and authoritative set of detailed proposals for establishing new markets for the management of the biggest economic risks facing society. Our existing financial markets are seen as being inadequate in dealing with such risks and Professor Shiller suggests major new markets as solutions to the problem. Shiller argues that although some risks, such as
The implementation of risk maps for fire hazard management is dealt with. We assume that a binary-classified image is obtained either from a simulated lattice or from a re- motely sensed image, using appropriate classification procedures. Starting from that, different risk indices are considered and the pertinent risk maps are implemented, using two idealized model of fire propagation, one deterministic
Paolo Addesso; Ciro Amodio; Stefano Marano; Rocco Restaino
This paper presents a methodology for mid-term riskmanagement of a power portfolio, which includes generation assets and energy contracts. Compared to some other approaches arising from financial world, all important technical constraints are considered here. For the purpose of risk assessment, the conditional value at risk is implemented. Two algorithms are developed: first assuming a perfect liquidity' of a
The guide directs the reader to a wide spectrum of sources of information which address the basic and fundamental principles and issues of risk assessment, riskmanagement, and risk communication. It is designed to assist EPA, other Federal, State and loc...
Software development project is often faced with unanticipated problems which pose any potential risks within the development environment. Controlling these risks arises from both the technical and non-technical development components already from the early stages of the development is crucial to arrive at a successful project. Therefore, software development riskmanagement is becoming recognized as a best practice in the
In this paper, we present an integrated framework for the measurement and management of market and credit risk in fixed income portfolios. The framework based on the Mark-to-Future approach promoted by Algorithmics is used to analyze the contribution of market and credit risk to portfolio risk and determine the possible benefits of integration. The bonds and derivatives in the portfolio
The field of disaster riskmanagement is relatively new and takes a structured approach to managing uncertainty related to the threat of natural and man-made disasters. Disaster riskmanagement consists primarily of risk assessment and the development of strategies to mitigate disaster risk. This paper will discuss how increasing both Earth observation data and information technology capabilities can contribute to disaster riskmanagement, particularly in Belize. The paper presents the results and recommendations of a project conducted by an international and interdisciplinary team of experts at the 2009 session of the International Space University in NASA Ames Research Center (California, USA). The aim is to explore the combination of current, planned and potential space-aided, airborne, and ground-based Earth observation tools, the emergence of powerful new web-based and mobile data management tools, and how this combination can support and improve the emerging field of disaster riskmanagement. The starting point of the project was the World Bank's Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) program, focused in Central America. This program was used as a test bed to analyze current space technologies used in riskmanagement and develop new strategies and tools to be applied in other regions around the world.
The evaluation of the need for remedial activities at hazardous waste sites requires quantification of risks of adverse health effects to humans and the ecosystem resulting from the presence of chemical and radioactive substances at these sites. The health risks from exposure to these substances are in addition to risks encountered because of the virtually unavoidable exposure to naturally occurring chemicals and radioactive materials that are present in air, water, soil, building materials, and food products. To provide a frame of reference for interpreting risks quantified for hazardous waste sites, it is useful to identify the relative magnitude of risks of both a voluntary and involuntary nature that are ubiquitous throughout east Tennessee. In addition to discussing risks from the ubiquitous presence of background carcinogens in the east Tennessee environment, this report also presents risks resulting from common, everyday activities. Such information should, not be used to discount or trivialize risks from hazardous waste contamination, but rather, to create a sensitivity to general risk issues, thus providing a context for better interpretation of risk information.
Climate variability and change impact national and local economies and environments. Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information to inform decision making requires an understanding of context, societal objectives, and identification of factors important to the management of risk. Information sensitive to changing baselines or extremes is a critical emergent need. Meeting this need requires timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge within familiar pathways. We identify key attributes for a climate service , and the network and infrastructure to develop and coordinate the resulting services based on lessons learned in experimental implementations of climate services. "Service-type" activities already exist in many settings within federal, state, academic, and private sectors. The challenge for a climate service is to find effective implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting user needs). These strategies include upfront infrastructure investments, learning from event to event, coordinated innovation and diffusion, and highlighting common adaptation interests. Common to these strategies is the production of reliable and accessible data, analyses of emergent conditions and needs, and deliberative processes to identify appropriate entry points and uses for improved knowledge. Experimental climate services show that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections, risk assessments and usable information requires sustained participation in “knowledge management systems” for early warning across temporal and spatial scales. Central to these systems is a collaborative framework between research and management to ensure anticipatory coordination between decision makers and information providers, allowing for emerging research findings and their attendant uncertainties to be considered. Early warnings in this context are not simply forecasts or predictions but information on potential “futures” derived from past records, expert judgments, scenarios, and availability of mechanisms and capacity to use such information. Effective experimental climate services facilitate ongoing appraisals of knowledge needs for informing adaptation and mitigation options across sectors and across scenarios of near and longer-term future climates. Analyses show that climate service experiments drawing on data, applied research and prototyping functions of activities such as RISAs and RCCs are critical to developing the learning needed to inform and structure the flow of knowledge and understanding from problem definition and applications research to information delivery, use and evaluation. These activities effectively serve to inform services implementation when overarching cross-agency coordination, knowledge management, and innovation diffusion mechanisms such as afforded by NIDIS and the Coastal Services Center are engaged. We also demonstrate the importance of positioning climate research to engage and inform the decision-making process as society anticipates and responds to climate and its impacts.
Webb, R. S.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Davidson, M. A.; Shea, E. E.; Nierenberg, C.; Dole, R. M.
The New Basel Capital Accord has firstly covered almost all risk sources including credit risk, market risk and operational risk etc. and embodied an outlook of complete riskmanagement. In the past five years, state-owned commercial banks and stock-system commercial banks have made certain progress in riskmanagement culture and in improving various riskmanagement means, but it is still
The U.S. bank supervisory agencies recently issued for public comment revised guidance regarding the implementation of the proposed Basel II-related, risk-based capital requirements. Among the revisions is an important update to guidance regarding operational riskmanagement. Operational risk generally refers to the risk of monetary losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, and systems, or from external events,
...threats? What role do you expect Smart Grid to play in the Bulk Power System...adequately assure grid reliability under Smart Grid applications? If not, how should NERC address these issues? c. Will Smart Grid applications have non-cyber...
Carriers of germline mutations in the TP53 gene, encoding the cell-cycle regulator and tumour suppressor p53, have a markedly increased risk of cancer-related morbidity and mortality during both childhood and adulthood, and thus require appropriate and effective cancer riskmanagement. However, the predisposition of such patients to multiorgan tumorigenesis presents a specific challenge for cancer riskmanagement programmes. Herein, we review the clinical implications of germline mutations in TP53 and the evidence for cancer screening and prevention strategies in individuals carrying such mutations, as well as examining the potential psychosocial implications of lifelong management for a ubiquitous cancer risk. In addition, we propose an evidence-based framework for the clinical management of TP53 mutation carriers and provide a platform for addressing the management of other cancer predisposition syndromes that can affect multiple organs. PMID:24642672
McBride, Kate A; Ballinger, Mandy L; Killick, Emma; Kirk, Judy; Tattersall, Martin H N; Eeles, Rosalind A; Thomas, David M; Mitchell, Gillian
Working toward effective risk mitigation strategies amidst ever-present and increasingly changing risks requires first effective communication between assessment and management spheres. This notion permeates the spectrum of what can be considered the physical changing risk inputs that feed into the risk governance processes of assessment, management and communication of risks. Close connections and overlaps between assessment and management requires communication to serve as the crux for the close collaboration necessary for encouraging preventative, long-term strategies for reducing disaster risks.1 More specifically, communication of risk information plays this connective role by informing and advising policy and decision making processes conducted by actors such as spatial planners who receive this information. In this way, those who assess the risks provide information to those who must manage these risks. When this one-directional communication pathway is reciprocated, riskmanagers provide information to risk assessors, enabling two-way communication amongst actors working toward risk reduction. This communication and exchange of information enables development of strategies and actions taken toward creating and improving risk mitigation measures within a given territory and community. Further, management actions taken (especially for mitigative measures) can alter the physical and social elements of the spatial context of their territory.2 This demands an adjustment of the previous risk assessment information and communication of the change in potential risk. These conceptual underpinnings are addressed and presented through explanation of an analytical framework encompassing changing risk inputs into risk governance processes. The framework elaborates the risk communication component and is supported by practical examples from stakeholder meetings and site visits in the Polish and Romania case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES.3 Specific examples are provided especially within the topic of mitigation through spatial planning, as one of the riskmanagement actors using the provided risk information to implement effective measures. Results of example analysis indicate that, in Poland, alteration in risk assessment methods according to the implementation of the EU Floods Directive may be detrimental to local level management strategies. In the case of Romania, evidence suggests that severe deficiencies exist in the communication and use of risk assessment information especially in the formation and implementation of land use plans. Utilizing these and other examples, the research concludes with some key points gleaned from the combination of the both conceptual and practical approach in order to foster dialogue and discussion toward future research.
Sprague, Teresa; Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Charrière, Marie
Background, aim, and scope This paper presents a study related to the application of the reliability-based life cycle assessment (LCA) to assess different\\u000a alternatives for solid waste management in the Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The current system includes waste collection,\\u000a transport, sorting, recycling, and mechanical and biological treatment (MBT) by means of aerobic treatment and landfill. In\\u000a addition, some future expansion plans
Background Foot disease complications, such as foot ulcers and infection, contribute to considerable morbidity and mortality. These complications are typically precipitated by “high-risk factors”, such as peripheral neuropathy and peripheral arterial disease. High-risk factors are more prevalent in specific “at risk” populations such as diabetes, kidney disease and cardiovascular disease. To the best of the authors’ knowledge a tool capturing multiple high-risk factors and foot disease complications in multiple at risk populations has yet to be tested. This study aimed to develop and test the validity and reliability of a Queensland High Risk Foot Form (QHRFF) tool. Methods The study was conducted in two phases. Phase one developed a QHRFF using an existing diabetes foot disease tool, literature searches, stakeholder groups and expert panel. Phase two tested the QHRFF for validity and reliability. Four clinicians, representing different levels of expertise, were recruited to test validity and reliability. Three cohorts of patients were recruited; one tested criterion measure reliability (n?=?32), another tested criterion validity and inter-rater reliability (n?=?43), and another tested intra-rater reliability (n?=?19). Validity was determined using sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values (PPV). Reliability was determined using Kappa, weighted Kappa and intra-class correlation (ICC) statistics. Results A QHRFF tool containing 46 items across seven domains was developed. Criterion measure reliability of at least moderate categories of agreement (Kappa?>?0.4; ICC?>?0.75) was seen in 91% (29 of 32) tested items. Criterion validity of at least moderate categories (PPV?>?0.7) was seen in 83% (60 of 72) tested items. Inter- and intra-rater reliability of at least moderate categories (Kappa?>?0.4; ICC?>?0.75) was seen in 88% (84 of 96) and 87% (20 of 23) tested items respectively. Conclusions The QHRFF had acceptable validity and reliability across the majority of items; particularly items identifying relevant co-morbidities, high-risk factors and foot disease complications. Recommendations have been made to improve or remove identified weaker items for future QHRFF versions. Overall, the QHRFF possesses suitable practicality, validity and reliability to assess and capture relevant foot disease items across multiple at risk populations.
In classical theory, the risk is limited to mathematical expectation of losses that can occur when choosing one of the possible variants. For banks, risk is represented as losses arising from the completion of one or another decision. Bank risk is a phenomenon that occurs during the activity of banking operations and that cause negative effects for those activities: deterioration
Maria CARACOTA DIMITRIU; Ioana-Aurelia OPREA; Marian-Albert SCRIECIU
The project entitled, “Uncertainty Quantification in the Reliability and Risk Assessment of Generation IV Reactors”, was conducted as a DOE NERI project collaboration between Texas A&M University and The Ohio State University between March 2006 and June 2009. The overall goal of the proposed project was to develop practical approaches and tools by which dynamic reliability and risk assessment techniques can be used to augment the uncertainty quantification process in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods and PRA applications for Generation IV reactors. This report is the Final Scientific/Technical Report summarizing the project.
Decision support systems for nuclear emergency management (DSNE) are currently used worldwide to assist decision makers in taking emergency response countermeasures in case of accidental releases of radioactive materials from nuclear facilities. The present work has been motivated by the fact that, up until now, DSNE systems have not been regarded as safety critical software systems. The core of any DSNE system is represented by the different simulation codes linked together to form the dispersion simulation workflow. These codes require input emission and meteorological data to produce forecasts of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive pollutants and other substances. However, the reliability of the system not only depends on the trustworthiness of the measured (or generated) input data but also on the reliability of the simulation codes used. The main goal of this work is to improve the reliability of DSNE systems by adapting current state of the art methods from the domain of software reliability engineering to the case of atmospheric dispersion simulation codes. The current approach is based on the "design by diversity principle" for improving the reliability of simulation codes and the trustworthiness of simulation results. The effectiveness of the approach has been tested using the results of two test versions of the RODOS DSNE system used in several European countries.
...on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assesment; Notice of Meeting The...on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will hold a meeting...Final Regulatory Guide 5.73, ``Fatigue Management for Nuclear Power Plant...
For new access to space systems with challenging mission requirements, effective implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) must be available early in the program to support the design of systems that are safe, reliable, highly autonomous. Early ISHM availability is also needed to promote design for affordable operations; increased knowledge of functional health provided by ISHM supports construction of more efficient operations infrastructure. Lack of early ISHM inclusion in the system design process could result in retrofitting health management systems to augment and expand operational and safety requirements; thereby increasing program cost and risk due to increased instrumentation and computational complexity. Having the right sensors generating the required data to perform condition assessment, such as fault detection and isolation, with a high degree of confidence is critical to reliable operation of ISHM. Also, the data being generated by the sensors needs to be qualified to ensure that the assessments made by the ISHM is not based on faulty data. NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing technologies for sensor selection and data validation as part of the FDDR (Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Response) element of the Upper Stage project of the Ares 1 launch vehicle development. This presentation will provide an overview of the GRC approach to sensor selection and data quality validation and will present recent results from applications that are representative of the complexity of propulsion systems for access to space vehicles. A brief overview of the sensor selection and data quality validation approaches is provided below. The NASA GRC developed Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4) is a model-based procedure for systematically and quantitatively selecting an optimal sensor suite to provide overall health assessment of a host system. S4 can be logically partitioned into three major subdivisions: the knowledge base, the down-select iteration, and the final selection analysis. The knowledge base required for productive use of S4 consists of system design information and heritage experience together with a focus on components with health implications. The sensor suite down-selection is an iterative process for identifying a group of sensors that provide good fault detection and isolation for targeted fault scenarios. In the final selection analysis, a statistical evaluation algorithm provides the final robustness test for each down-selected sensor suite. NASA GRC has developed an approach to sensor data qualification that applies empirical relationships, threshold detection techniques, and Bayesian belief theory to a network of sensors related by physics (i.e., analytical redundancy) in order to identify the failure of a given sensor within the network. This data quality validation approach extends the state-of-the-art, from red-lines and reasonableness checks that flag a sensor after it fails, to include analytical redundancy-based methods that can identify a sensor in the process of failing. The focus of this effort is on understanding the proper application of analytical redundancy-based data qualification methods for onboard use in monitoring Upper Stage sensors.
The Ministry of Health in Italy considers riskmanagement (RM) to be one of the specific objectives to be developed by its national policies, as suggested by the European Union recommendations and by several international organizations, such as the World Health Organization (WHO), the Council of Europe, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The National Health Plan stated the need to guarantee and monitor safety of health care and biomedical technology, with the development of a standardized computerized method to collect and analyze data on adverse events and with specific actions for education and training of all stakeholders, which is to be conducted at different levels of the health system governance, national, regional, and local. Over a 4-year period, the National Observatory for the Monitoring of Sentinel Events has collected data on 385 sentinel events, with a mortality rate of 54.8%. Compared with earlier reports, we have observed a reduction from 41% to 17% of sentinel events classified in the "nonspecified sentinel event" and an increase from 20% to 40% of cases in which an action plan has been developed. A manual for root cause analysis has been released with the aim of offering health operators an instrument to analyze the occurrence of an adverse event. Ten recommendations and a manual for safety in the operating room, which includes a checklist for safe surgery adapted on the basis of WHO suggestions, have been published. To date, eight guidelines for safety have been released to improve stakeholders' accountability. The Ministry of Health has also elaborated a program of specific actions to be developed over the next 2 years in several areas of RM. These initiatives confirm the strategic role of policies for RM in our country, allowing for a dynamic and proactive process, ensuring continuity of action and promoting a deep understanding of patient safety issues. PMID:20692438
Ghirardini, A; Cardone, R; De Feo, A; Leomporra, G; Cannizzaro, G D; Sgrò, A; Palumbo, F
Launching a rocket, running a business, driving to work and even day-to-day living all involve some degree of risk. Risk is ever present yet not always recognized, adequately assessed and appropriately mitigated. Identification, assessment and mitigation of risk are elements of the riskmanagement component of the "continuous improvement" way of life that has become a hallmark of successful and progressive enterprises. While the application of riskmanagement techniques to provide continuous improvement may be detailed and extensive, the philosophy, ideals and tools can be beneficially applied to all situations. Experiences with the use of risk identification, assessment and mitigation techniques for complex systems and processes are described. System safety efforts and tools used to examine potential risks of the Ares I First Stage of NASA s new Constellation Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) presently being designed are noted as examples. Recommendations from lessons learned are provided for the application of riskmanagement during the development of new systems as well as for the improvement of existing systems. Lessons learned and suggestions given are also examined for applicability to simple systems, uncomplicated processes and routine personal daily tasks. This paper informs the reader of varied uses of riskmanagement efforts and techniques to identify, assess and mitigate risk for improvement of products, success of business, protection of people and enhancement of personal life.
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The management, maintenance and operation of major infrastructure assets involves long (whole-of-life), complex processes\\u000a in which there is always a considerable uncertainty for the manager of those assets. The level of uncertainty of asset performance,\\u000a cost of operation and market competitiveness depends on riskmanagement measures that are put in place (whether or not they\\u000a are recognised as riskmanagement
The importance of treating this theme is proved by the current situation that economy and the entities activating on the market are confronted with. Risk is present in all the actions and event of humanity. Risk is in a permanent change, it evolves in complexity, among the traditional exposures to hazard other risks are added: operational, financial, strategic, market, country,
Risk assessments and riskmanagement decisions concerning risks to wild fish populations resulting from exposures to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and related chemicals have been based primarily on observations of effects of chemicals on individual organisms. Although the development and application of population-level ecological risk-assessment methods is proceeding at a rapid pace, the organism-level approach is still being justified by arguments that population-level ecological risk assessment is in an early stage of development and has not been shown to be reliable. This article highlights the importance of including population-level effects in risk-management decision-making, by examining the effects of exposures to PCBs on fish populations inhabiting the Hudson River, New York, USA, a system in which data have been collected for approximately 30 y concerning both concentrations of PCBs in sediment and fish tissue and the abundance and reproduction of exposed fish populations. We previously tested hypotheses concerning the effects of PCBs on the striped bass population of the Hudson River, and found that the available data conflicted with all of these hypotheses. Here, we report results of similar analyses of effects of historic PCB exposures on the Hudson River white perch population, using an extended data set that recently became available. As with striped bass, we found no correlation between maternal PCB tissue concentrations and any measure of reproductive success in Hudson River white perch during the 30-y period covered by the data set. Together with results of studies performed on fish populations exposed to PCBs at other sites, our results clearly demonstrate that physiological and genetic adaptation, biological compensation, and other ecological processes influence responses of fish populations to PCB exposures and should be considered in riskmanagement decision-making. PMID:20050031
Barnthouse, Lawrence W; Glaser, David; DeSantis, Liane
Ecological risk assessments are steadily becoming a significant part of the total environmental services picture. A properly conducted and well-managed baseline ecological risk assessment can provide significant information that is of real value in setting remediation or corrective measures goals. Although there is considerable technical guidance concerning ecological assessments, little help is available regarding management of an assessment as a project. As a result, assessments suffer from an absence of clear direction, objectives unrelated to riskmanagement needs, and poor quality data incapable of supporting desired riskmanagement decisions. This report proposes a flexible, generic work breakdown structure to integrate ecological risk assessment tasks to ensure that a baseline assessment is: (1) an ecotoxicological investigation focusing on ecological implications of toxicological phenomenon, (2) driven by site-specific, operationally defined endpoints and data quality objectives that provide high-certainty, pertinent information for riskmanagement decisions, and (3) a project of finite duration with goals and products constrained by budget and schedule considerations. This more consistent approach would allow a project manager to better define the ecological risk assessment process, enabling it to be a more effective part of remediation projects.
Hope, B.K. [Ogden Environmental and Energy Services Co., Inc., Honolulu, HI (United States)
Over the past two decades, risk in education has stimulated increasing attention and prominence, with principals bearing responsibility and liability for "managing" risk in schools. As a consequence, compulsory risk compliance regimes have become increasingly complex, technical and time-consuming. This article focuses on the responses of…
The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.
In some places, geo-hazards are a major concern for population, the assets, and the economy. This is especially the case in the East African Rift (EAR), where high volcanic and tectonic activities are sometimes coupled with geopolitical issues and dense population as in the Kivu rift area. That area is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Africa and is affected by decades of political instability and subsequent humanitarian crisis. In that region, geo-hazards are poorly assessed despite the numerous recent and historical events. Moreover, the relief of the rift also corresponds in this area to the main political boundaries, which complicates the coordination and the management of geo-hazards monitoring networks and related mitigation measures. Based on the experience acquired through several projects focused on hazard assessment and reinforcement of local monitoring capacity, the GeoRisCA project is addressing the assessment of the global risk related to the major geohazards that affect the region. Taking into account the identified factors, GeoRisCA's objective is to assess the risk from multi geohazards in a region which is subject to many (possibly combined) disasters every year and which could undergo a large impact disaster in the coming years. At regional scale, the high seismicity and the volcanic activity are the most important concerns. Possible eruptions of lethal gas in certain area around Goma, and the large number of reported and likely future mass movements as well as site-specific seismic amplification effects increase the danger at local scale. As both human lives and specific ecosystems are under threat, comprehensive methodologies are required to reliably assess multi geohazards over both short and long terms and to clearly outline and map related risk. These tools are needed by local and regional authorities as well as local and international stakeholders in management and mitigation processes. Developed methodologies in GeoRisCA combine hazard and vulnerability factors, as well as risk perception indicators. Such an approach combining natural and human sciences to address georisks globally at a regional scale has never been performed in that region so far.
A Technical RiskManagement based on the Water Safety Plan (WSP) concept was implemented at four German water supply systems according to the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO). Hazards affecting water quality, continuity and the reliability of supply from catchment to treatment and distribution could be identified by the systematic approach and suitable measures were defined. The results
In its simplest form, riskmanagement is a continuous assessment from project start to completion that identifies what can impact your project (i.e., what the risks are)., which of these risks are important, and identification and implementation of strategies to deal with these risks (both threats and opportunities). The National Compact Stellerator Experiment (NCSX) Project was a "first-of-a-kind" fusion experiment that was technically very challenging, primarily resulting from the complex component geometries and tight tolerances. Initial risk quantification approaches proved inadequate and contributed to the escalation of costs as the design evolved and construction started. After the Project was well into construction, a new riskmanagement plan was adopted. This plan was based on successful Department of Energy (DOE) and industrial riskmanagement precepts. This paper will address the importance of effective riskmanagement processes and lessons learned. It is of note that a steady reduction of risk was observed in the last six months of the project.
Risk Management on the National Compact Stellarator Project (NCSX)
Principles of riskmanagement, as a part of risk analysis, are described with respect to their application to the production chain of intensively reared fish. According to the outcomes of the FAO\\/WHO Expert Consultation on the Application of RiskManagement (Rome, 1997), there are four steps: risk evaluation, riskmanagement option assessment, implementation of management decisions, and monitoring and review.
The article describes challenges to comparative risk assessment, a key approach for managing uncertainty in decision making, across diverse threats such as terrorism and climate change and argues new approaches will be particularly important in addressing decisions related to sustainability.
Nondevelopmental Items (NDI) acquisition programs are enjoying popular support as faster, cheaper alternatives to new start research and development programs. Unfortunately, DoD policy on riskmanagement in NDI programs is lacking. In the new, less-restri...
Analytical chemistry is an important tier of environmental protection and has been traditionally linked to compliance and/or exposure monitoring activities for environmental contaminants. The adoption of the riskmanagement paradigm has led to special challenges for analytical ch...
This report outlines supervisors' observations on the riskmanagement practices that may have enabled some firms to weather the financial market turmoil better than others through year-end 2007. Specifically, supervisors focused on practices related to th...
The purpose of this review was to determine how effectively the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is managing the human health and environmental risks of nanomaterials. Nanomaterials are currently used in a wide variety of applications, including...
... It Through: Managing the Benefits and Risks of Medicines PDF version For many people, taking medication is ... or thoughts that you may have. Know Your Medicines--Prescription and Over-the-Counter the brand and ...
On the basis of full access to risk cost related literature, find that the concept of riskmanagement gains doesn't get closely enough with engineering practice in reality. Stat from the hierarchical structure of project contract system on, put forward the management idea of riskmanagement and goal management integration. Constructed the equilibrium analysis methods of riskmanagement gains by
This slide presentation reviews strategies for managingrisk mitigation that occur with anomalies in on-orbit spacecraft. It reviews the risks associated with mission operations, a diagram of the method used to manage undesirable events that occur which is a closed loop fault analysis and until corrective action is successful. It also reviews the fish bone diagram which is used if greater detail is required and aids in eliminating possible failure factors.
Abstract The Risk Assessment and Management ,Process (RAMP) is a whole-school process for the assessment,and management ,of student’s mental ,health and ,wellbeing ,in primary ,and secondary schools. A process,evaluation revealed that RAMP was implemented,as intended across six primary and three secondary schools in Melbourne, Australia. Using the RAMP risk and protective factors monitoring form and screening processes, each school identified
The aim of this paper is to introduce a new methodology for operational riskmanagement, based on Bayesian copulae. One of the main problems related to operational riskmanagement is understanding the complex dependence structure of the\\u000a associated variables. In order to model this structure in a flexible way, we construct a method based on copulae. This allows\\u000a us to
This document describes the different steps to implement for the riskmanagement system in a medical laboratory. The riskmanagement and the treatment of non-conformities are two essential pieces in the continuous improvement of quality system. Taking into account, according to the requirements, the non-conformities leads to immediately remedial action, with corrective action to avoid recurrence is a real task for information and continuous improvement. PMID:23765016
ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project riskmanagement processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard riskmanagement procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's RiskManagement tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based riskmanagement program that provides a common framework to capture and managerisks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the riskmanagement paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.
Risk factors for childhood and adolescent suicidal behavior are reviewed to point out important issues to focus suicide prevention strategies. Youth and family psychopathology involving suicidal behavior, violence, psychiatric disorders, including major depression, substance abuse, and psychosis, are the most significant risk factors for youth suicide and non-fatal suicidal acts. The availability of lethal means to commit suicide, especially guns
It is shown how the methods of risk analysis have been used in the University of Rome micro-satellite program. One of the driving research topics related to this program is the reduction of cost in building spacecraft. The probability risk analysis techniques seem to be a powerful tool in the field of micro-satellites design, to outline possible faults. Innovation and
Perioperative morbidity is associated with reduced long term survival. Comorbid disease, cardiovascular illness, and functional capacity can predispose patients to adverse surgical outcomes. Accurate risk stratification would facilitate informed patient consent and identify those individuals who may benefit from specific perioperative interventions. The ideal clinical risk scoring system would be objective, accurate, economical, simple to perform, based entirely on information