Science.gov

Sample records for risk analytic contributions

  1. The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-09-15

    gas in the United States over a relatively brief period. Perhaps of most concern is that this dramatic price increase was largely unforeseen. Figure 2 compares the EIA's natural gas wellhead price forecast from each year's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) going back to 1985 against the average US wellhead price that actually transpired. As shown, our forecasting abilities have proven rather dismal over time, as over-forecasts made in the late 1980's eventually yielded to under-forecasts that have persisted to this day. This historical experience demonstrates that little weight should be placed on any one forecast of future natural gas prices, and that a broad range of future price conditions ought to be considered in planning and investment decisions. Against this backdrop of high, volatile, and unpredictable natural gas prices, increasing the market penetration of renewable generation such as wind, solar, and geothermal power may provide economic benefits to ratepayers by displacing gas-fired generation. These benefits may manifest themselves in several ways. First, the displacement of natural gas-fired generation by increased renewable generation reduces ratepayer exposure to natural gas price risk--i.e., the risk that future gas prices (and by extension future electricity prices) may end up markedly different than expected. Second, this displacement reduces demand for natural gas among gas-fired generators, which, all else equal, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices in turn benefit both electric ratepayers and other end-users of natural gas. Using analytic approaches that build upon, yet differ from, the past work of others, including Awerbuch (1993, 1994, 2003), Kahn and Stoft (1993), and Humphreys and McClain (1998), this chapter explores each of these two potential 'hedging' benefits of renewable electricity. Though we do not seek to judge whether these two specific benefits outweigh any incremental cost of renewable energy

  2. A Survey of Risk Analytics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picoult, Evan

    2003-03-01

    Risk Analytical Units within Wall Street firms are responsible for developing the methods used to quantify the different forms of risk inherent in the firms' activities. This talk is an overview of risk analytics. It will cover: the function and validation of valuation models; the measurement of market risk; and the measurement of the different aspects of and forms of credit risk, including the simulation of the potential counterparty credit exposure of derivatives, the estimation of obligor default probability and the simulation of the potential loss distribution of loan portfolios. Risk Analytics is an applied field that integrates finance theory, mathematics and statistical analysis. It is a field in that has attracted many physicists and one in which many physicists have flourished. The talk will conclude with an analysis of why this is so.

  3. [Contributions and novelties from Functional Analytic Psychotherapy].

    PubMed

    Ferro García, Rafael; Valero Aguayo, Luis; López Bermúdez, Miguel A

    2007-08-01

    Functional Analytic Psychotherapy is based on the principles of radical behaviourism. It emphasises the impact of events occurring during therapeutic sessions, the therapist-client interaction context, functional equivalence of environments, natural reinforcement, and shaping by the therapist. Functional Analytic Psychotherapy makes use of both the basic principles of behaviour analysis: individual functional assessment and application of in vivo treatment. This paper analyses novelties and new contributions of this therapy. New contributions are classified in various categories: integration with other psychotherapies, improvement of therapeutic skills, methods for evaluation and data recording in therapy, its application to several clinical problems, and studies of its efficacy. PMID:17617985

  4. Risk analytics for hedge funds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pareek, Ankur

    2005-05-01

    The rapid growth of the hedge fund industry presents significant business opportunity for the institutional investors particularly in the form of portfolio diversification. To facilitate this, there is a need to develop a new set of risk analytics for investments consisting of hedge funds, with the ultimate aim to create transparency in risk measurement without compromising the proprietary investment strategies of hedge funds. As well documented in the literature, use of dynamic options like strategies by most of the hedge funds make their returns highly non-normal with fat tails and high kurtosis, thus rendering Value at Risk (VaR) and other mean-variance analysis methods unsuitable for hedge fund risk quantification. This paper looks at some unique concerns for hedge fund risk management and will particularly concentrate on two approaches from physical world to model the non-linearities and dynamic correlations in hedge fund portfolio returns: Self Organizing Criticality (SOC) and Random Matrix Theory (RMT).Random Matrix Theory analyzes correlation matrix between different hedge fund styles and filters random noise from genuine correlations arising from interactions within the system. As seen in the results of portfolio risk analysis, it leads to a better portfolio risk forecastability and thus to optimum allocation of resources to different hedge fund styles. The results also prove the efficacy of self-organized criticality and implied portfolio correlation as a tool for risk management and style selection for portfolios of hedge funds, being particularly effective during non-linear market crashes.

  5. The contribution of Raman spectroscopy to the analytical quality control of cytotoxic drugs in a hospital environment: eliminating the exposure risks for staff members and their work environment.

    PubMed

    Bourget, Philippe; Amin, Alexandre; Vidal, Fabrice; Merlette, Christophe; Troude, Pénélope; Baillet-Guffroy, Arlette

    2014-08-15

    The purpose of the study was to perform a comparative analysis of the technical performance, respective costs and environmental effect of two invasive analytical methods (HPLC and UV/visible-FTIR) as compared to a new non-invasive analytical technique (Raman spectroscopy). Three pharmacotherapeutic models were used to compare the analytical performances of the three analytical techniques. Statistical inter-method correlation analysis was performed using non-parametric correlation rank tests. The study's economic component combined calculations relative to the depreciation of the equipment and the estimated cost of an AQC unit of work. In any case, analytical validation parameters of the three techniques were satisfactory, and strong correlations between the two spectroscopic techniques vs. HPLC were found. In addition, Raman spectroscopy was found to be superior as compared to the other techniques for numerous key criteria including a complete safety for operators and their occupational environment, a non-invasive procedure, no need for consumables, and a low operating cost. Finally, Raman spectroscopy appears superior for technical, economic and environmental objectives, as compared with the other invasive analytical methods. PMID:24792972

  6. Risk prioritisation using the analytic hierarchy process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sum, Rabihah Md.

    2015-12-01

    This study demonstrated how to use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritise risks of an insurance company. AHP is a technique to structure complex problems by arranging elements of the problems in a hierarchy, assigning numerical values to subjective judgements on the relative importance of the elements and synthesizing the judgements to determine which elements have the highest priority. The study is motivated by wide application of AHP as a prioritisation technique in complex problems. It aims to show AHP is able to minimise some limitations of risk assessment technique using likelihood and impact. The study shows AHP is able to provide consistency check on subjective judgements, organise a large number of risks into a structured framework, assist risk managers to make explicit risk trade-offs, and provide an easy to understand and systematic risk assessment process.

  7. Behavior Analytic Contributions to the Study of Creativity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kubina, Richard M., Jr.; Morrison, Rebecca S.; Lee, David L.

    2006-01-01

    As researchers continue to study creativity, a behavior analytic perspective may provide new vistas by offering an additional perspective. Contemporary behavior analysis began with B. F. Skinner and offers a selectionist approach to the scientific investigation of creativity. Behavior analysis contributes to the study of creativity by…

  8. Contributions of Analytical Chemistry to the Clinical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skogerboe, Kristen J.

    1988-01-01

    Highlights several analytical techniques that are being used in state-of-the-art clinical labs. Illustrates how other advances in instrumentation may contribute to clinical chemistry in the future. Topics include: biosensors, polarization spectroscopy, chemiluminescence, fluorescence, photothermal deflection, and chromatography in clinical…

  9. ROLE OF ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY IN ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH

    EPA Science Inventory

    Analytical chemistry is an important tier of environmental protection and has been traditionally linked to compliance and/or exposure monitoring activities for environmental contaminants. The adoption of the risk management paradigm has led to special challenges for analytical ch...

  10. The influence of retrieval practice on metacognition: The contribution of analytic and non-analytic processes.

    PubMed

    Miller, Tyler M; Geraci, Lisa

    2016-05-01

    People may change their memory predictions after retrieval practice using naïve theories of memory and/or by using subjective experience - analytic and non-analytic processes respectively. The current studies disentangled contributions of each process. In one condition, learners studied paired-associates, made a memory prediction, completed a short-run of retrieval practice and made a second prediction. In another condition, judges read about a yoked learners' retrieval practice performance but did not participate in retrieval practice and therefore, could not use non-analytic processes for the second prediction. In Study 1, learners reduced their predictions following moderately difficult retrieval practice whereas judges increased their predictions. In Study 2, learners made lower adjusted predictions than judges following both easy and difficult retrieval practice. In Study 3, judge-like participants used analytic processes to report adjusted predictions. Overall, the results suggested non-analytic processes play a key role for participants to reduce their predictions after retrieval practice. PMID:26985881

  11. Economic Risk Analysis: Using Analytical and Monte Carlo Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Donnell, Brendan R.; Hickner, Michael A.; Barna, Bruce A.

    2002-01-01

    Describes the development and instructional use of a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet template that facilitates analytical and Monte Carlo risk analysis of investment decisions. Discusses a variety of risk assessment methods followed by applications of the analytical and Monte Carlo methods. Uses a case study to illustrate use of the spreadsheet tool…

  12. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    PubMed

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. PMID:22410502

  13. 7 CFR 1400.7 - Commensurate contributions and risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commensurate contributions and risk. 1400.7 Section... contributions and risk. (a) In order to be considered eligible to receive payments under the programs specified...'s contribution(s) to the operation; (2) Contribution(s) to the farming operation that are at...

  14. Analytical solutions for sensitivity contribution in nuclear imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DiPirro, Joseph Christopher

    The use of slit-slat collimation in diagnostic medical nuclear imaging is analyzed for the purpose of finding background sensitivity. A general derivation of sensitivity contribution is expressed for various camera positions outside particular radioactive objects. These objects can represent possible human or animal organs for different clinical imaging tasks. Rectangular, circular, elliptical, and parabolic cross-sections are analyzed for a given set of variables to represent the total background contribution within any particular shape for any given detector location, whether it is a point, line, or area sensitivity contribution. The sensitivity of a point source is calculated for any location inside the slit-slat's field-of-view as a function of the following constraints: (i) object shape, (ii) slit distance, (iii) depth within the object, (iv) acceptance angle, and if necessary (v) attenuation coefficient of the medium, and (vi) lateral displacement of the detector. The analysis is split into parts for all shapes to find the line or area contribution within an object. The sum of the point sources can be performed digitally to find a solution in terms of the provided situation; in some cases, an exact solution was found. The line sensitivity contributions can be applied to slit-slat cameras to reduce noise and fluctuation in imaging system design and analysis.

  15. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    PubMed

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-01

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks. PMID:19640668

  16. Multi-analytical Approaches Informing the Risk of Sepsis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gwadry-Sridhar, Femida; Lewden, Benoit; Mequanint, Selam; Bauer, Michael

    Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity and is often associated with increased hospital resource utilization, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay. The economic burden associated with sepsis is huge. With advances in medicine, there are now aggressive goal oriented treatments that can be used to help these patients. If we were able to predict which patients may be at risk for sepsis we could start treatment early and potentially reduce the risk of mortality and morbidity. Analytic methods currently used in clinical research to determine the risk of a patient developing sepsis may be further enhanced by using multi-modal analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater precision. Researchers commonly use univariate and multivariate regressions to develop predictive models. We hypothesized that such models could be enhanced by using multiple analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater insight. In this paper, we analyze data about patients with and without sepsis using a decision tree approach and a cluster analysis approach. A comparison with a regression approach shows strong similarity among variables identified, though not an exact match. We compare the variables identified by the different approaches and draw conclusions about the respective predictive capabilities,while considering their clinical significance.

  17. A financial network perspective of financial institutions' systemic risk contributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wei-Qiang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yao, Shuang; Uryasev, Stan

    2016-08-01

    This study considers the effects of the financial institutions' local topology structure in the financial network on their systemic risk contribution using data from the Chinese stock market. We first measure the systemic risk contribution with the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) which is estimated by applying dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (DCC-MVGARCH). Financial networks are constructed from dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) with graph filtering method of minimum spanning trees (MSTs). Then we investigate dynamics of systemic risk contributions of financial institution. Also we study dynamics of financial institution's local topology structure in the financial network. Finally, we analyze the quantitative relationships between the local topology structure and systemic risk contribution with panel data regression analysis. We find that financial institutions with greater node strength, larger node betweenness centrality, larger node closeness centrality and larger node clustering coefficient tend to be associated with larger systemic risk contributions.

  18. Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Boenke, A

    2001-12-01

    The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here. PMID:11761126

  19. Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review

    PubMed Central

    Layton, J. Bradley

    2010-01-01

    Background The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. Objectives This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data Extraction Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Results Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44). Conclusions The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20668659

  20. The delayed contribution of low and intermediate mass stars to chemical galactic enrichment: An analytical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franco, I.; Carigi, L.

    2008-10-01

    We find a new analytical solution for the chemical evolution equations, taking into account the delayed contribution of all low and intermediate mass stars (LIMS) as one representative star that enriches the interstellar medium. This solution is built only for star formation rate proportional to the gas mass in a closed box model. We obtain increasing C/O and N/O ratios with increasing O/H, behavior impossible to match with the Instantaneous Recycling Approximation (IRA). Our results, obtained by two analytical equations, are very similar to those found by numerical models that consider the lifetimes of each star. This delayed model reproduces successfully the evolution of the C/O-O/H and Y - O relations in the solar vicinity. This analytical approximation is a useful tool to study the chemical evolution of elements produced by LIMS when a galactic chemical evolutionary code is not available.

  1. EXAMPLES OF THE ROLE OF ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY IN ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH

    EPA Science Inventory

    Analytical chemistry is an important tier of environmental protection and has been traditionally linked to compliance and/or exposure monitoring activities for environmental contaminants. The adoption of the risk management paradigm has led to special challenges for analytical ch...

  2. Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Oil Sands Environmental Compliance Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roux, Izak Johannes, III

    Oil companies in Alberta, Canada, invested $32 billion on new oil sands projects in 2013. Despite the size of this investment, there is a demonstrable deficiency in the uniformity and understanding of environmental legislation requirements that manifest into increased project compliance risks. This descriptive study developed 2 prioritized lists of environmental regulatory compliance risks and mitigation strategies and used multi-criteria decision theory for its theoretical framework. Information from compiled lists of environmental compliance risks and mitigation strategies was used to generate a specialized pairwise survey, which was piloted by 5 subject matter experts (SMEs). The survey was validated by a sample of 16 SMEs, after which the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank a total of 33 compliance risks and 12 mitigation strategy criteria. A key finding was that the AHP is a suitable tool for ranking of compliance risks and mitigation strategies. Several working hypotheses were also tested regarding how SMEs prioritized 1 compliance risk or mitigation strategy compared to another. The AHP showed that regulatory compliance, company reputation, environmental compliance, and economics ranked the highest and that a multi criteria mitigation strategy for environmental compliance ranked the highest. The study results will inform Alberta oil sands industry leaders about the ranking and utility of specific compliance risks and mitigations strategies, enabling them to focus on actions that will generate legislative and public trust. Oil sands leaders implementing a risk management program using the risks and mitigation strategies identified in this study will contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and positive social change.

  3. Using data analytics to identify revenue at risk.

    PubMed

    Thayer, Courtney; Bruno, Jerry; Remorenko, Mary Beth

    2013-09-01

    Key factors for successfully using data analytics to improve revenue cycle performance include the following: Senior leaders who engage physicians and work with business unit owners to gain ground-level insights. Communication and learning. Embedded analytics. Transparency related to what the data show, how the data will be used, and what items have been brought to light via data analysis. Real-time monitoring of data. Incorporation of staff feedback in continually improving analytical modeling capabilities. PMID:24050056

  4. Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity.

    PubMed

    Melbourne, Brett A; Hastings, Alan

    2008-07-01

    Extinction risk in natural populations depends on stochastic factors that affect individuals, and is estimated by incorporating such factors into stochastic models. Stochasticity can be divided into four categories, which include the probabilistic nature of birth and death at the level of individuals (demographic stochasticity), variation in population-level birth and death rates among times or locations (environmental stochasticity), the sex of individuals and variation in vital rates among individuals within a population (demographic heterogeneity). Mechanistic stochastic models that include all of these factors have not previously been developed to examine their combined effects on extinction risk. Here we derive a family of stochastic Ricker models using different combinations of all these stochastic factors, and show that extinction risk depends strongly on the combination of factors that contribute to stochasticity. Furthermore, we show that only with the full stochastic model can the relative importance of environmental and demographic variability, and therefore extinction risk, be correctly determined. Using the full model, we find that demographic sources of stochasticity are the prominent cause of variability in a laboratory population of Tribolium castaneum (red flour beetle), whereas using only the standard simpler models would lead to the erroneous conclusion that environmental variability dominates. Our results demonstrate that current estimates of extinction risk for natural populations could be greatly underestimated because variability has been mistakenly attributed to the environment rather than the demographic factors described here that entail much higher extinction risk for the same variability level. PMID:18596809

  5. Mort User's Manual: For use with the Management Oversight and Risk Tree analytical logic diagram

    SciTech Connect

    Knox, N.W.; Eicher, R.W.

    1992-02-01

    This report contains the User's Manual for MORT (Management Oversight and Risk Tree), a logic diagram in the form of a work sheet'' that illustrates a long series of interrelated questions. MORT is a comprehensive analytical procedure that provides a disciplined method for determining the causes and contributing factors of major accidents. Alternatively, it serves as a tool to evaluate the quality of an existing system. While similar in many respects to fault tree analysis, MORT is more generalized and presents over 1500 specific elements of an ideal universal'' management program for optimizing environment, safety and health, and other programs. This User's Manual is intended to be used with the MORT diagram dated February 1992.

  6. Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

    2015-05-01

    The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

  7. Aspartame and Risk of Cancer: A Meta-analytic Review.

    PubMed

    Mallikarjun, Sreekanth; Sieburth, Rebecca McNeill

    2015-01-01

    Aspartame (APM) is the most commonly used artificial sweetener and flavor enhancer in the world. There is a rise in concern that APM is carcinogenic due to a variation in the findings of the previous APM carcinogenic bioassays. This article conducts a meta-analytic review of all previous APM carcinogenic bioassays on rodents that were conducted before 31 December 2012. The search yielded 10 original APM carcinogenic bioassays on rodents. The aggregate effect sizes suggest that APM consumption has no significant carcinogenic effect in rodents. PMID:24965331

  8. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to UK autumn flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pall, Pardeep; Aina, Tolu; Stone, Dáithí; Stott, Peter; Nozawa, Toru; Hilberts, Arno; Lohmann, Dag; Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing[1]. Yet climate models typically used for studying the attribution problem do not resolve weather at scales causing damage[2]. Here we present the first multi-step study that attributes increasing risk of a damaging regional weather-related event to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The event was the UK flooding of October and November 2000, occurring during the wettest autumn in England & Wales since records began in 1766[3] and inundating several river catchments[4]. Nearly 10,000 properties were flooded and transport services and power supplies severely disrupted, with insured losses estimated at £1.3bn[5,6]. Though the floods were deemed a ‘wake up call' to the impacts of climate change[7], anthropogenic drivers cannot be blamed for this individual event: but they could be blamed for changing its risk[8,9]. Indeed, typically quoted thermodynamic arguments do suggest increased probability of precipitation extremes under anthropogenic warming[10]. But these arguments are too simple[11,12,13] to fully account for the complex weather[4,14] associated with the flooding. Instead we use a Probabilistic Event Attribution framework, to rigorously estimate the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to England & Wales Autumn 2000 flood risk. This involves comparing an unprecedented number of daily river runoff realisations for the region, under Autumn 2000 scenarios both with and without the emissions. These realisations are produced using publicly volunteered distributed computing power to generate several thousand seasonal forecast resolution climate model simulations[15,16] that are then fed into a precipitation-runoff model[17,18]. Autumn 2000 flooding is characterised by realisations exceeding the highest daily river runoff for that period, derived from the observational-based ERA-40 re-anaylsis[19]. We find that our

  9. Enhancing Treatment Outcome of Patients at Risk of Treatment Failure: Meta-Analytic and Mega-Analytic Review of a Psychotherapy Quality Assurance System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shimokawa, Kenichi; Lambert, Michael J.; Smart, David W.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Outcome research has documented worsening among a minority of the patient population (5% to 10%). In this study, we conducted a meta-analytic and mega-analytic review of a psychotherapy quality assurance system intended to enhance outcomes in patients at risk of treatment failure. Method: Original data from six major studies conducted…

  10. Experimental and analytical studies for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    Various experimental and analytical studies performed for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment program are described with emphasis on carbon fiber characteristics, sensitivity of electrical equipment and components to shorting or arcing by carbon fibers, attenuation effect of carbon fibers on aircraft landing aids, impact of carbon fibers on industrial facilities. A simple method of estimating damage from airborne carbon fibers is presented.

  11. Real social analytics: A contribution towards a phenomenology of a digital world.

    PubMed

    Couldry, Nick; Fotopoulou, Aristea; Dickens, Luke

    2016-03-01

    This article argues against the assumption that agency and reflexivity disappear in an age of 'algorithmic power' (Lash 2007). Following the suggestions of Beer (2009), it proposes that, far from disappearing, new forms of agency and reflexivity around the embedding in everyday practice of not only algorithms but also analytics more broadly are emerging, as social actors continue to pursue their social ends but mediated through digital interfaces: this is the consequence of many social actors now needing their digital presence, regardless of whether they want this, to be measured and counted. The article proposes 'social analytics' as a new topic for sociology: the sociological study of social actors' uses of analytics not for the sake of measurement itself (or to make profit from measurement) but in order to fulfil better their social ends through an enhancement of their digital presence. The article places social analytics in the context of earlier debates about categorization, algorithmic power, and self-presentation online, and describes in detail a case study with a UK community organization which generated the social analytics approach. The article concludes with reflections on the implications of this approach for further sociological fieldwork in a digital world. PMID:26891120

  12. Genetic and environmental contributions to social anxiety across different ages: a meta-analytic approach to twin data.

    PubMed

    Scaini, Simona; Belotti, Raffaella; Ogliari, Anna

    2014-10-01

    Social anxiety disorder (SAD) and social anxiety symptoms (SAS) have been largely studied both epidemiologically and genetically, however, estimates of genetic and environmental influences for these phenotypes widely vary across reports. Based upon available literature, 13 cohorts (42,585 subjects) were included in 3 meta-analytic estimates of the standardized variance components of aetiological influences on SAD/SAS, on the effect of age and of phenotype (symptoms vs. diagnosis). The proportions of variance accounted for by genetic and environmental factors were calculated by averaging estimates among studies, and pondered by the number of individuals in each sample. Meta-analytic estimations showed that genetic and non-shared environmental factors explain most of individual differences for SAD/SAS. In adults, the genetic contribution was half than that in younger patients, with higher contribution of non-shared environmental influences. In contrast, the shared environmental factors seem to be less relevant. PMID:25118017

  13. About Skinner and Time: Behavior-Analytic Contributions to Research on Animal Timing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lejeune, Helga; Richelle, Marc; Wearden, J. H.

    2006-01-01

    The article discusses two important influences of B. F. Skinner, and later workers in the behavior-analytic tradition, on the study of animal timing. The first influence is methodological, and is traced from the invention of schedules imposing temporal constraints or periodicities on animals in "The Behavior of Organisms," through the rate…

  14. The Contributions of Spatial, Verbal, and Analytical Skills to Problem-Solving Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Ardyth C.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the existence and strength of relationships between students' cognitive skills and mathematical problem-solving performance. Specifically, relationships between students' verbal, spatial, and analytical skills and their problem-solving performance on items that require a verbal response, items…

  15. Roy Schafer's contributions to psychological testing: from clinical sensibility to the analytic attitude.

    PubMed

    Fritsch, Richard C

    2013-01-01

    The author reviews Schafer's contributions to psychological testing, emphasizing his development of the test battery, his significant contributions to psychoanalytically oriented Rorschach interpretation, and his understanding of the complex interpersonal dynamics involved in psychological test interpretation. The author also discusses his use of Schafer's writing in his own teaching and academic work, noting that Schafer's contributions have not only provided innovative methods for examining test data, but have also promoted a respectful, humanistic, and individualized approach to the patient in testing and treatment. The author asserts that Schafer's later seminal contributions to psychoanalysis had their origins in his early career as a psychologist applying psychoanalytic ideas to testing. PMID:23457096

  16. Dealing with Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Quantification of Sources and Analytical Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linkov, I.; Burmistrov, D.

    2002-05-01

    initial differences in model predictions were as high as thirteen orders of magnitude, and several iterations of scenario discussions and modeling were required before the various model predictions merged (final predictions ranged between one and three orders of magnitude). This study also shows that the contribution of the parameter uncertainty to overall prediction uncertainty (as evaluated by probabilistic Monte-Carlo assessments for the FRUITPATH and FORESTPATH models) may be small as compared to model and `modeler' uncertainty. This talk will focus on FORESTPATH and FRUITPATH, the only two participating USA models. Both models are wholly probabilistic and thus can predict a probability distribution for radionuclide concentrations at any moment in time. Overall, the results of these analyses illustrate the importance of specific problem formulation and of the implementation of an analytic-deliberative process in risk characterization. The importance of model calibration and of the incorporation of site-specific information using Bayesian techniques will be also discussed.

  17. Contribution of Spaceflight Environmental Factors to Vision Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zanello, Susana B.

    2011-01-01

    The risk of visual impairment and elevated intracranial pressure as a result of low-earth orbit microgravity exposure has directed our attention and research efforts to the eye. While the alterations observed in astronauts returning from long duration missions include vision and neuroanatomical changes observed by non-invasive methods, other effects and subsequent tissue responses at the molecular and cellular level can only be studied by accessing the tissue itself. As a result of this need, several studies are currently taking place within the Human and Health Countermeasures Element (HHC) that use animal models for eye research. The rodent eye has many similarities to the human eye, and both rats and mice have historically been used as models of human eye disease, aiding in the identification of the disease genes, elucidation of mechanisms of disease, as well as in the assessment of therapeutic treatments. These studies attempt to answer two central questions in the etiology of possible vision alterations in the environment of space exploration missions. The first is: what effects and response mechanisms take place in the different eye structures at the cellular and molecular level? The second question is directed to elucidate the contribution of the various environmental stressors (radiation, nutrition, fluid shift) to these effects. Collaborative approaches with internal and external investigators have allowed performing these studies in a most cost-effective fashion, providing preliminary data and laying the bases for testing further hypotheses in future and specifically designed animal experiments. From a study centered on the radioadaptive response in mice, we have learned that the retina responds to low and high dose gamma radiation by elevating antioxidant-related genes at early time points (4hrs) and that this response returns to control levels after 1 day post-irradiation. We are expanding this research with another collaborative study that investigates

  18. Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Briggs, Charles Awoala

    For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain. The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management; Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors; and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational. Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include; (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03. With respect to major objectives the most

  19. Functional-analytical capabilities of GIS technology in the study of water use risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nevidimova, O. G.; Yankovich, E. P.; Yankovich, K. S.

    2015-02-01

    Regional security aspects of economic activities are of great importance for legal regulation in environmental management. This has become a critical issue due to climate change, especially in regions where severe climate conditions have a great impact on almost all types of natural resource uses. A detailed analysis of climate and hydrological situation in Tomsk Oblast considering water use risks was carried out. Based on developed author's techniques an informational and analytical database was created using ArcGIS software platform, which combines statistical (quantitative) and spatial characteristics of natural hazards and socio-economic factors. This system was employed to perform areal zoning according to the degree of water use risks involved.

  20. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  1. Ionization statistics and diffusion: analytical estimate of their contribution to spatial resolution of drift chambers

    SciTech Connect

    Tarnopolsky, G.J.

    1983-01-01

    The spatial resolution of a drift chamber often is the foremost design parameter. The calculation described here - a design tool - permits us to estimate the contributions of ionization statistics and diffusion to the spatial resolution when actually sampling the drift pulse waveform. Useful formulae are derived for the cylindrical and jet-chamber cell geometries.

  2. About Skinner and time: behavior-analytic contributions to research on animal timing.

    PubMed

    Lejeune, Helga; Richelle, Marc; Wearden, J H

    2006-01-01

    The article discusses two important influences of B. F. Skinner, and later workers in the behavior-analytic tradition, on the study of animal timing. The first influence is methodological, and is traced from the invention of schedules imposing temporal constraints or periodicities on animals in The Behavior of Organisms, through the rate differentiation procedures of Schedules of Reinforcement, to modern temporal psychophysics in animals. The second influence has been the development of accounts of animal timing that have tried to avoid reference to internal processes of a cognitive sort, in particular internal clock mechanisms. Skinner's early discussion of temporal control is first reviewed, and then three recent theories-Killeen & Fetterman's (1988) Behavioral Theory of Timing; Machado's (1997) Learning to Time; and Dragoi, Staddon, Palmer, & Buhusi's (2003) Adaptive Timer Model-are discussed and evaluated. PMID:16602380

  3. Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to

  4. Calibration of risk prediction models: impact on decision-analytic performance.

    PubMed

    Van Calster, Ben; Vickers, Andrew J

    2015-02-01

    Decision-analytic measures to assess clinical utility of prediction models and diagnostic tests incorporate the relative clinical consequences of true and false positives without the need for external information such as monetary costs. Net Benefit is a commonly used metric that weights the relative consequences in terms of the risk threshold at which a patient would opt for treatment. Theoretical results demonstrate that clinical utility is affected by a model';s calibration, the extent to which estimated risks correspond to observed event rates. We analyzed the effects of different types of miscalibration on Net Benefit and investigated whether and under what circumstances miscalibration can make a model clinically harmful. Clinical harm is defined as a lower Net Benefit compared with classifying all patients as positive or negative by default. We used simulated data to investigate the effect of overestimation, underestimation, overfitting (estimated risks too extreme), and underfitting (estimated risks too close to baseline risk) on Net Benefit for different choices of the risk threshold. In accordance with theory, we observed that miscalibration always reduced Net Benefit. Harm was sometimes observed when models underestimated risk at a threshold below the event rate (as in underestimation and overfitting) or overestimated risk at a threshold above event rate (as in overestimation and overfitting). Underfitting never resulted in a harmful model. The impact of miscalibration decreased with increasing discrimination. Net Benefit was less sensitive to miscalibration for risk thresholds close to the event rate than for other thresholds. We illustrate these findings with examples from the literature and with a case study on testicular cancer diagnosis. Our findings strengthen the importance of obtaining calibrated risk models. PMID:25155798

  5. Risk factor detection for heart disease by applying text analytics in electronic medical records.

    PubMed

    Torii, Manabu; Fan, Jung-Wei; Yang, Wei-Li; Lee, Theodore; Wiley, Matthew T; Zisook, Daniel S; Huang, Yang

    2015-12-01

    In the United States, about 600,000 people die of heart disease every year. The annual cost of care services, medications, and lost productivity reportedly exceeds 108.9 billion dollars. Effective disease risk assessment is critical to prevention, care, and treatment planning. Recent advancements in text analytics have opened up new possibilities of using the rich information in electronic medical records (EMRs) to identify relevant risk factors. The 2014 i2b2/UTHealth Challenge brought together researchers and practitioners of clinical natural language processing (NLP) to tackle the identification of heart disease risk factors reported in EMRs. We participated in this track and developed an NLP system by leveraging existing tools and resources, both public and proprietary. Our system was a hybrid of several machine-learning and rule-based components. The system achieved an overall F1 score of 0.9185, with a recall of 0.9409 and a precision of 0.8972. PMID:26279500

  6. Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

    PubMed

    Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes. PMID:23920700

  7. Methodological Challenges in Research on Sexual Risk Behavior: I. Item Content, Scaling, and Data Analytical Options

    PubMed Central

    Schroder, Kerstin E. E.; Carey, Michael P.; Vanable, Peter A.

    2008-01-01

    Investigation of sexual behavior involves many challenges, including how to assess sexual behavior and how to analyze the resulting data. Sexual behavior can be assessed using absolute frequency measures (also known as “counts”) or with relative frequency measures (e.g., rating scales ranging from “never” to “always”). We discuss these two assessment approaches in the context of research on HIV risk behavior. We conclude that these two approaches yield non-redundant information and, more importantly, that only data yielding information about the absolute frequency of risk behavior have the potential to serve as valid indicators of HIV contraction risk. However, analyses of count data may be challenging due to non-normal distributions with many outliers. Therefore, we identify new and powerful data analytical solutions that have been developed recently to analyze count data, and discuss limitations of a commonly applied method (viz., ANCOVA using baseline scores as covariates). PMID:14534027

  8. Risk-based analytical method transfer: application to large multi-product transfers.

    PubMed

    Raska, Christina S; Bennett, Tony S; Goodberlet, Scott A

    2010-07-15

    As pharmaceutical companies adapt their business models, a new approach to analytical method transfer is needed to efficiently handle transfers of multiple products, associated with situations such as site consolidations/closures. Using the principles of risk management, a risk-based method transfer approach is described, which defines appropriate transfer activities based on a risk assessment of the methods and experience of the receiving unit. A key step in the process is detailed knowledge transfer from the transferring unit to the receiving unit. The amount of transfer testing required can be streamlined or eliminated on the basis of a number of factors, including method capability, receiving unit familiarity, and method past performance. PMID:20557030

  9. Risk factors for persistent delinquent behavior among juveniles: A meta-analytic review.

    PubMed

    Assink, Mark; van der Put, Claudia E; Hoeve, Machteld; de Vries, Sanne L A; Stams, Geert Jan J M; Oort, Frans J

    2015-12-01

    Multiple risk domains have been identified for life-course persistent (LCP) offending, but a quantitative review of the effect of different risk domains was not yet available. Therefore, we performed a series of multilevel meta-analyses to examine the effect of several risk domains for LCP offending relative to adolescence-limited (AL) offending. We included 55 studies reporting on 1014 effects of risk factors, and classified each factor into one of 14 risk domains. The results revealed a significant effect for 11 domains ranging from d=0.200 to d=0.758. Relatively large effects were found for the criminal history, aggressive behavior, and alcohol/drug abuse domains, whereas relatively small effects were found for the family, neurocognitive, and attitude domains. The physical health, background, and neighborhood domains yielded no effect. Moderator analyses showed that effects of sibling-related risk factors were larger than effects of mother-related risk factors, and that the effect of the relationship domain was largest during childhood. We conclude that most risk domains contribute to the development of LCP offending and that differences between AL and LCP offenders may be quantitative rather than qualitative. Implications of the present results for risk assessment and the prevention/treatment of LCP offending are discussed. PMID:26301752

  10. Substantial contribution of extrinsic risk factors to cancer development | Office of Cancer Genomics

    Cancer.gov

    Recent research has highlighted a strong correlation between tissue-specific cancer risk and the lifetime number of tissue-specific stem-cell divisions. Whether such correlation implies a high unavoidable intrinsic cancer risk has become a key public health debate with the dissemination of the 'bad luck' hypothesis. Here we provide evidence that intrinsic risk factors contribute only modestly (less than ~10-30% of lifetime risk) to cancer development.

  11. Can Google Trends search queries contribute to risk diversification?

    PubMed Central

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2013-01-01

    Portfolio diversification and active risk management are essential parts of financial analysis which became even more crucial (and questioned) during and after the years of the Global Financial Crisis. We propose a novel approach to portfolio diversification using the information of searched items on Google Trends. The diversification is based on an idea that popularity of a stock measured by search queries is correlated with the stock riskiness. We penalize the popular stocks by assigning them lower portfolio weights and we bring forward the less popular, or peripheral, stocks to decrease the total riskiness of the portfolio. Our results indicate that such strategy dominates both the benchmark index and the uniformly weighted portfolio both in-sample and out-of-sample. PMID:24048448

  12. Contribution of Spaceflight Environmental Factors to Vision Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zanello, Susana

    2012-01-01

    The recognition of a risk of visual impairment and intracranial pressure increase as a result of spaceflight has directed our attention and research efforts to the eye. While the alterations observed in astronauts returning from long duration missions include reportable vision and neuroanatomical changes observed by non-invasive methods, other effects and subsequent tissue responses at the molecular and cellular level can only be studied by accessing the tissue itself. As a result of this need, several studies are currently taking place that use animal models for eye research within the HHC Element. The implementation of these studies represents a significant addition to the capabilities of the biomedical research laboratories within the SK3 branch at JSC.

  13. Flood Risk and Climate Change: The Contributions of Remote Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brakenridge, R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kettner, A. J.; Cohen, S.; Syvitski, J. A.; Overeem, I.; de Groeve, T.

    2015-12-01

    Since the mid-1970s, satellite observation has gathered an exceptionally valuable but largely un-harvested record of flood inundation world-wide. Commencing in late 1999, the two MODIS sensors also obtained daily surveillance of all of the Earth's surface waters. These data are analogous to the record of earthquake seismicity provided by seismographic stations; they provide the only objective characterization of many extreme, damaging flood events. This information should be deployed to its maximum utility in defining areas of flood risk. In the developing nations, the remote sensing archive provides the immediate opportunity, without hydrological data infrastructure, to directly identify hazardous land areas. As well, satellite passive microwave radiometry, commencing with near-daily global coverage in 1998, has the ability to characterize at-a-site flood hydrographs. When combined with the satellite record of mapped inundation, this allows exceedance probabilities to be placed on observed inundation limits. The coupled data set can then be used to validate predictive flood modeling. As climate changes, flood statistics change. Yet hazard evaluation has for many decades proceeded using assumed stationarity of flood frequency distributions. New floods-of-record at any location thereby present a dilemma to policy makers and to hydrologists: immediately include the new extreme flood in the flow series, and thus increase the size of the regulatory floodplain, or use the pre-flood flow records to label the exceptional new event as, for example, "the 1000 yr flood". The remote sensing record also includes defended floodplains where levees have failed, sometimes even during relatively common floods. We can use the powerful observations provided by remote sensing to confront the old probability estimates directly: by arguing that the recent observed record of inundation from actual floods must take priority in guiding public policy.

  14. Adjustment of Children Born to Teenage Mothers: The Contribution of Risk and Protective Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dubow, Eric F.; Luster, Tom

    1990-01-01

    Examined contribution of risk and protective factors in adjustment of 721 children, age 8-15, born to teenage mothers. Results showed that exposure to increasing number of risk factors (poverty, urban residence, mother's self-esteem) was associated with greater vulnerability to adjustment problems, while protective factors (intelligence,…

  15. Analytical Hierarchy Process modeling for malaria risk zones in Vadodara district, Gujarat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, B.; Joshi, J. P.

    2014-11-01

    Malaria epidemic is one of the complex spatial problems around the world. According to WHO, an estimated 6, 27, 000 deaths occurred due to malaria in 2012. In many developing nations with diverse ecological regions, it is still a large cause of human mortality. Owing to the incompleteness of epidemiological data and their spatial origin, the quantification of disease incidence burdening basic public health planning is a major constrain especially in developing countries. The present study focuses on the integrated Geospatial and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (AHP) technique to determine malaria risk zones. The study is conducted in Vadodara district, including 12 Taluka among which 4 Taluka are predominantly tribal. The influence of climatic and physical environmental factors viz., rainfall, hydro geomorphology; drainage, elevation, and land cover are used to score their share in the evaluation of malariogenic condition. This was synthesized on the basis of preference over each factor and the total weights of each data and data layer were computed and visualized. The district was divided into three viz., high, moderate and low risk zones .It was observed that a geographical area of 1885.2sq.km comprising 30.3% fall in high risk zone. The risk zones identified on the basis of these parameters and assigned weights shows a close resemblance with ground condition. As the API distribution for 2011overlaid corresponds to the risk zones identified. The study demonstrates the significance and prospect of integrating Geospatial tools and Analytical Hierarchy Process for malaria risk zones and dynamics of malaria transmission.

  16. Evaluation of generic types of drilling fluid using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process.

    PubMed

    Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir; Veitch, Brian; Bose, Neil

    2003-12-01

    The composition of drilling muds is based on a mixture of clays and additives in a base fluid. There are three generic categories of base fluid--water, oil, and synthetic. Water-based fluids (WBFs) are relatively environmentally benign, but drilling performance is better with oil-based fluids (OBFs). The oil and gas industry developed synthetic-based fluids (SBFs), such as vegetable esters, olefins, ethers, and others, which provide drilling performance comparable to OBFs, but with lower environmental and occupational health effects. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology to guide decision-making in the selection and evaluation of three generic types of drilling fluids using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this paper a comparison of drilling fluids is made considering various activities involved in the life cycle of drilling fluids. This paper evaluates OBFs, WBFs, and SBFs based on four major impacts--operations, resources, economics, and liabilities. Four major activities--drilling, discharging offshore, loading and transporting, and disposing onshore--cause the operational impacts. Each activity involves risks related to occupational injuries (safety), general public health, environmental impact, and energy use. A multicriteria analysis strategy was used for the selection and evaluation of drilling fluids using a risk-based AHP. A four-level hierarchical structure is developed to determine the final relative scores, and the SBFs are found to be the best option. PMID:15160901

  17. The Prioritization of Clinical Risk Factors of Obstructive Sleep Apnea Severity Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

    PubMed Central

    Maranate, Thaya; Pongpullponsak, Adisak; Ruttanaumpawan, Pimon

    2015-01-01

    Recently, there has been a problem of shortage of sleep laboratories that can accommodate the patients in a timely manner. Delayed diagnosis and treatment may lead to worse outcomes particularly in patients with severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). For this reason, the prioritization in polysomnography (PSG) queueing should be endorsed based on disease severity. To date, there have been conflicting data whether clinical information can predict OSA severity. The 1,042 suspected OSA patients underwent diagnostic PSG study at Siriraj Sleep Center during 2010-2011. A total of 113 variables were obtained from sleep questionnaires and anthropometric measurements. The 19 groups of clinical risk factors consisting of 42 variables were categorized into each OSA severity. This study aimed to array these factors by employing Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process approach based on normalized weight vector. The results revealed that the first rank of clinical risk factors in Severe, Moderate, Mild, and No OSA was nighttime symptoms. The overall sensitivity/specificity of the approach to these groups was 92.32%/91.76%, 89.52%/88.18%, 91.08%/84.58%, and 96.49%/81.23%, respectively. We propose that the urgent PSG appointment should include clinical risk factors of Severe OSA group. In addition, the screening for Mild from No OSA patients in sleep center setting using symptoms during sleep is also recommended (sensitivity = 87.12% and specificity = 72.22%). PMID:26221183

  18. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China

    PubMed Central

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21st century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change. PMID:26867481

  19. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

    PubMed

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change. PMID:26867481

  20. The return periods and risk assessment of severe dust storms in Inner Mongolia with consideration of the main contributing factors.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng; Ji, Zhonghui

    2012-09-01

    This study presents a methodology for return period analysis and risk assessment of severe dust storm disaster. Meteorological observation data, soil moisture data, and remote sensing data from 30 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia (western China) from 1985 to 2006 were used for the study. A composite index of severe dust storm disaster (Index I (SDS)) based on the influence mechanisms of the main contributing factors was developed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted comprehensive method, and the hazard risk curves (i.e., the transcendental probability curves of I (SDS)) for the 30 stations were established using the parameter estimation method. We then analyzed the risk of the occurrence of severe dust storm under different scenarios of 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods. The results show that the risk decreased from west to east across Inner Mongolia, and there are four severe dust storm occurrence peak value centers, including Guaizihu, Jilantai, Hailisu, and Zhurihe-Erenhot. The severity of dust storms in seven places will be intolerable in the 50-year return period scenario and in three places in the 20-year return period scenario. These results indicate that these locations should concentrate forces on disaster prevention, monitoring, and early warning. The I (SDS) was developed as an easily understandable tool useful for the assessment and comparison of the relative risk of severe dust storm disasters in different areas. The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in their management of severe dust storm disasters in their efforts to (1) make resource allocation decisions, (2) make high-level planning decisions, and (3) raise public awareness of severe dust storm risk. PMID:21956339

  1. Quantifying the contributions of behavioral and biological risk factors to socioeconomic disparities in coronary heart disease incidence: The MORGEN study

    PubMed Central

    Kershaw, Kiarri N.; Droomers, Mariël; Robinson, Whitney R.; Carnethon, Mercedes R.; Daviglus, Martha L.; Verschuren, W.M. Monique

    2013-01-01

    Quantifying the impact of different modifiable behavioral and biological risk factors on socioeconomic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) may help inform targeted, population-specific strategies to reduce the unequal distribution of the disease. Previous studies have used analytic approaches that limit our ability to disentangle the relative contributions of these risk factors to CHD disparities. The goal of this study was to assess mediation of the effect of low education on incident CHD by multiple risk factors simultaneously. Analyses are based on 15,067 participants of the Dutch Monitoring Project on Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases aged 20–65 years examined 1994–1997 and followed for events until January 1, 2008. Path analysis was used to quantify and test mediation of the low education-CHD association by behavioral (current cigarette smoking, heavy alcohol use, poor diet, and physical inactivity) and biological (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia) risk factors. Behavioral and biological risk factors accounted for 56.6% (95% CI: 42.6%–70.8%) of the low education-incident CHD association. Smoking was the strongest mediator, accounting for 27.3% (95% CI: 17.7%–37.4%) of the association, followed by obesity (10.2%; 95% CI: 4.5%–16.1%), physical inactivity (6.3%; 95% CI: 2.7%–10.0%), and hypertension (5.3%; 95% CI: 2.8%–8.0%). In summary, in a Dutch cohort, the majority of the relationship between low education and incident CHD was mediated by traditional behavioral and biological risk factors. Addressing barriers to smoking cessation, blood pressure and weight management, and physical activity may be the most effective approaches to eliminating socioeconomic inequalities in CHD. PMID:24037117

  2. Socioeconomic inequalities in coronary heart disease risk in older age: contribution of established and novel coronary risk factors

    PubMed Central

    RAMSAY, S E; MORRIS, R W; WHINCUP, P H; PAPACOSTA, O; RUMLEY, A; LENNON, L; LOWE, G; WANNAMETHEE, S G

    2009-01-01

    Background:Evidence on socioeconomic inequalities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and their pathways in the elderly is limited. Little is also known about the contributions that novel coronary risk factors (particularly inflammatory/hemostatic markers) make to socioeconomic inequalities in CHD. Objectives:To examine the extent of socioeconomic inequalities in CHD in older age, and the contributions (relative and absolute) of established and novel coronary risk factors. Methods:A population-based cohort of 3761 British men aged 60–79 years was followed up for 6.5 years for CHD mortality and incidence (fatal and non-fatal). Social class was based on longest-held occupation recorded at 40–59 years. Results:There was a graded relationship between social class and CHD incidence. The hazard ratio for CHD incidence comparing social class V (unskilled workers) with social class I (professionals) was 2.70 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37–5.35; P-value for trend = 0.008]. This was reduced to 2.14 (95% CI 1.06–4.33; P-value for trend = 0.11) after adjustment for behavioral factors (cigarette smoking, physical activity, body mass index, and alcohol consumption), which explained 38% of the relative risk gradient (41% of absolute risk). Additional adjustment for inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and von Willebrand factor) explained 55% of the relative risk gradient (59% of absolute risk). Blood pressure and lipids made little difference to these estimates; results were similar for CHD mortality. Conclusions:Socioeconomic inequalities in CHD persist in the elderly and are at least partly explained by behavioral risk factors; novel (inflammatory) coronary risk markers made some further contribution. Reducing inequalities in behavioral factors (especially cigarette smoking) could reduce these social inequalities by at least one-third. PMID:20015318

  3. Semi-analytical estimation of wellbore leakage risk during CO2 sequestration in Ottawa County, Michigan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, B.; Matteo, E. N.; Elliot, T. R.; Nogues, J. P.; Deng, H.; Fitts, J. P.; Pollak, M.; Bielicki, J.; Wilson, E.; Celia, M. A.; Peters, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    Using the semi-analytical ELSA model, wellbore leakage risk is estimated for CO2 injection into either the Mt. Simon or St. Peter formations, which are part of the Michigan Sedimentary Basin that lies beneath Ottawa County, MI. ELSA is a vertically integrated subsurface modeling tool that can be used to simulate both supercritical CO2 plume distribution/migration and pressure- induced brine displacement during CO2 injection. A composite 3D subsurface domain was constructed for the ELSA simulations based on estimated permeabilities for formation layers, as well as GIS databases containing subsurface stratigraphy, active and inactive and inactive wells, and potential interactions with subsurface activities. These activities include potable aquifers, oil and gas reservoirs, and waste injection sites, which represent potential liabilities if encountered by brine or supercritical CO2 displaced from the injection formation. Overall, the 3D subsurface domain encompasses an area of 1500 km2 to a depth of 2 km and contains over 3,000 wells. The permeabilities for abandoned wells are derived from a ranking system based on available well data including historical records and well logs. This distribution is then randomly sampled in Monte Carlo simulations that are used to generate a probability map for subsurface interferences or atmospheric release resulting from leakage of CO2 and /or brine from the injection formation. This method serves as the basis for comparative testing between various scenarios for injection, as well as for comparing the relative risk of leakage between injection formations or storage sites.

  4. Analytical singlet α{/s 4} QCD contributions into the e + e --annihilation Adler function and the generalized Crewther relations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kataev, A. L.

    2012-02-01

    The generalized Crewther relations in the channels of the non-singlet and vector quark currents are considered. These relations follow from the double application of the operator product expansion approach to the same axial vector-vector-vector triangle amplitude in two regions, adjoining to the angle sides ( x, y) (or p 2, q 2). We assume that the generalized Crewther relations in these two kinematic regimes result in the existence of the same perturbation expression for two products of the coefficient functions of annihilation and deepinelastic scattering processes in the non-singlet and vector channels. This feature explains the conformal symmetry motivated cancellations between the singlet α{/s 3} corrections to the Gross-Llewellyn Smith sum rule S GLS of ν N deep inelastic scattering and the singlet α{/s 3} correction to the e + e --annihilation Adler function D {/A V } in the product of the corresponding perturbative series. Taking into account the Baikov-Chetyrkin-Kuhn fourth order result for S GLS and the perturbative effects of the violation of the conformal symmetry in the generalized Crewther relation, we obtain the analytical contribution to the singlet α{/s 4} correction to the D {/A V } function. Its a-posteriori comparison with the recent result of direct diagram-by-diagram evaluation of the singlet fourth order corrections to D {/A V } function demonstrates the coincidence of the predicted and obtained ζ{3/2}-contributions to the singlet term. They can be obtained in the conformal invariant limit from the original Crewther relation. Therefore, on the contrary to previous belief, the appearance of ζ3-terms in the perturbative series in quantum field theory gauge models does not contradict to the property of the conformal symmetry and can be considered as regular feature. The Banks-Zaks motivated relation between our predicted and the obtained directly fourth order corrections is mentioned. It confirms the expectation, previously made by Baikov

  5. The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Stahl, Daniel; Borgwardt, Stephan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana O.; Woods, Scott W.; McGlashan, Thomas; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R.; McGuire, Philip

    2016-01-01

    Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk

  6. Patterns of Therapist Variability: Therapist Effects and the Contribution of Patient Severity and Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saxon, David; Barkham, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the size of therapist effects using multilevel modeling (MLM), to compare the outcomes of therapists identified as above and below average, and to consider how key variables--in particular patient severity and risk and therapist caseload--contribute to therapist variability and outcomes. Method: We used a large…

  7. Understanding Sociocultural Factors Contributing to HIV Risk Among Ayoreo Bolivian Sex Workers.

    PubMed

    López Entrambasaguas, Olga María; Granero-Molina, José; Hernández-Padilla, Jose; Fernández-Sola, Cayetano

    2015-01-01

    The Bolivian indigenous Ayoreo ethnic people are vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections and HIV. Ayoreo women who also work in sex trades belong to an extremely high-risk group, and prevention programs are not delivering effective outcomes for them. The aim of our study was to explore, describe, and understand behavioral and cultural patterns related to sexual and reproductive health in Ayoreo sex workers. A qualitative-ethnographic study was designed; data were collected through participant observation and in-depth interviews with sex workers and key informants. Two fundamental themes contributing to HIV risk for female Ayoreo sex workers in Bolivia emerged: reproductive/sexual freedom and sociocultural risk determinants. We concluded that the in-depth examination of the sexual-reproductive culture amongst the Ayoreo has provided useful information, which might contribute to the cultural adaptation and design of future policies and prevention programs for sexually transmitted infections and HIV in this group. PMID:26329475

  8. Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Salbu, Brit

    2016-01-01

    There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

  9. Serotonin 2A receptors contribute to the regulation of risk-averse decisions

    PubMed Central

    Macoveanu, Julian; Rowe, James B; Hornboll, Bettina; Elliott, Rebecca; Paulson, Olaf B; Knudsen, Gitte M; Siebner, Hartwig R

    2013-01-01

    Pharmacological studies point to a role of the neurotransmitter serotonin (5-HT) in regulating the preference for risky decisions, yet the functional contribution of specific 5-HT receptors remains to be clarified. We used pharmacological fMRI to investigate the role of the 5-HT2A receptors in processing negative outcomes and regulating risk-averse behavior. During fMRI, twenty healthy volunteers performed a gambling task under two conditions: with or without blocking the 5-HT2A receptors. The volunteers repeatedly chose between small, likely rewards and large, unlikely rewards. Choices were balanced in terms of expected utility and potential loss. Acute blockade of the 5-HT2A receptors with ketanserin made participants more risk-averse. Ketanserin selectively reduced the neural response of the frontopolar cortex to negative outcomes that were caused by low-risk choices and were associated with large missed rewards. In the context of normal 5-HT2A receptor function, ventral striatum displayed a stronger response to low-risk negative outcomes in risk-taking as opposed to risk-averse individuals. This (negative) correlation between the striatal response to low-risk negative outcomes and risk-averse choice behavior was abolished by 5-HT2A receptor blockade. The results provide the first evidence for a critical role of 5-HT2A receptor function in regulating risk-averse behavior. We suggest that the 5-HT2A receptor system facilitates risk-taking behavior by modulating the outcome evaluation of “missed” reward. These results have implications for understanding the neural basis of abnormal risk-taking behavior, for instance in pathological gamblers. PMID:23810974

  10. Solving problems of disclosure risk while retaining key analytic uses of publicly released microdata.

    PubMed

    O'Rourke, Joanne McFarland; Roehrig, Stephen; Heeringa, Steven G; Reed, Beth Glover; Birdsall, William C; Overcashier, Margaret; Zidar, Kelly

    2006-09-01

    MEASURES USED TO PROTECT SUBJECTS in publicly distributed microdata files often have a significant negative impact on key analytic uses of the data. For example, it may be important to analyze subpopulations within a data file such as racial minorities, yet these subjects may present the greatest disclosure risk because their records tend to stand out or be unique. Files or records that are linkable create another type of disclosure risk-common elements between two files can be used to link files with sensitive data to externally available files that disclose identity. Examples of disclosure limitation methods used to address these types of issues include blanking out data, coarsening response categories, or withholding data altogether. However, the very detail that creates the greatest risk also provides insight into differences that are of greatest interest to analysts. Restricted-use agreements that provide unaltered versions of the data may not be available, or only selectively so. The public-use version of the data is very important because it is likely to be the only one to which most researchers, policy analysts, teaching faculty, and students will ever have access. Hence, it is the version from which much of the utility of the data is extracted and often it effectively becomes the historical record of the data collection. This underscores the importance that the disclosure review c ommittee s trikes a g ood b alance b etween protection and u tility. In this paper we d escrib e our disclosure review committee's (DRC) analysis and resulting data protection plans for two national studies and one administrative data system. Three distinct disclosure limitation methods were employed, taking key uses of the data into consideration, to protect respondents while still providing statistically accurate and highly useful public-use data. The techniques include data swapping, microaggregation, and suppression of detailed geographic data. We describe the characteristics

  11. Rare Inherited and De Novo CNVs Reveal Complex Contributions to ASD Risk in Multiplex Families.

    PubMed

    Leppa, Virpi M; Kravitz, Stephanie N; Martin, Christa Lese; Andrieux, Joris; Le Caignec, Cedric; Martin-Coignard, Dominique; DyBuncio, Christina; Sanders, Stephan J; Lowe, Jennifer K; Cantor, Rita M; Geschwind, Daniel H

    2016-09-01

    Rare mutations, including copy-number variants (CNVs), contribute significantly to autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk. Although their importance has been established in families with only one affected child (simplex families), the contribution of both de novo and inherited CNVs to ASD in families with multiple affected individuals (multiplex families) is less well understood. We analyzed 1,532 families from the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange (AGRE) to assess the impact of de novo and rare CNVs on ASD risk in multiplex families. We observed a higher burden of large, rare CNVs, including inherited events, in individuals with ASD than in their unaffected siblings (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7), but the rate of de novo events was significantly lower than in simplex families. In previously characterized ASD risk loci, we identified 49 CNVs, comprising 24 inherited events, 19 de novo events, and 6 events of unknown inheritance, a significant enrichment in affected versus control individuals (OR = 3.3). In 21 of the 30 families (71%) in whom at least one affected sibling harbored an established ASD major risk CNV, including five families harboring inherited CNVs, the CNV was not shared by all affected siblings, indicating that other risk factors are contributing. We also identified a rare risk locus for ASD and language delay at chromosomal region 2q24 (implicating NR4A2) and another lower-penetrance locus involving inherited deletions and duplications of WWOX. The genetic architecture in multiplex families differs from that in simplex families and is complex, warranting more complete genetic characterization of larger multiplex ASD cohorts. PMID:27569545

  12. A Non-Degenerate Code of Deleterious Variants in Mendelian Loci Contributes to Complex Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    Blair, David R.; Lyttle, Christopher S.; Mortensen, Jonathan M.; Bearden, Charles F.; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Khiabanian, Hossein; Melamed, Rachel; Rabadan, Raul; Bernstam, Elmer V.; Brunak, Søren; Jensen, Lars Juhl; Nicolae, Dan; Shah, Nigam H.; Grossman, Robert L.; Cox, Nancy J.; White, Kevin P.; Rzhetsky, Andrey

    2013-01-01

    Summary Whereas countless highly penetrant variants have been associated with Mendelian disorders, the genetic etiologies underlying complex diseases remain largely unresolved. Here, we examine the extent to which Mendelian variation contributes to complex disease risk by mining the medical records of over 110 million patients. We detect thousands of associations between Mendelian and complex diseases, revealing a non-degenerate, phenotypic code that links each complex disorder to a unique collection of Mendelian loci. Using genome-wide association results, we demonstrate that common variants associated with complex diseases are enriched in the genes indicated by this “Mendelian code.” Finally, we detect hundreds of comorbidity associations among Mendelian disorders, and we use probabilistic genetic modeling to demonstrate that Mendelian variants likely contribute non-additively to the risk for a subset of complex diseases. Overall, this study illustrates a complementary approach for mapping complex disease loci and provides unique predictions concerning the etiologies of specific diseases. PMID:24074861

  13. Tissue-Level Mechanical Properties of Bone Contributing to Fracture Risk.

    PubMed

    Nyman, Jeffry S; Granke, Mathilde; Singleton, Robert C; Pharr, George M

    2016-08-01

    Tissue-level mechanical properties characterize mechanical behavior independently of microscopic porosity. Specifically, quasi-static nanoindentation provides measurements of modulus (stiffness) and hardness (resistance to yielding) of tissue at the length scale of the lamella, while dynamic nanoindentation assesses time-dependent behavior in the form of storage modulus (stiffness), loss modulus (dampening), and loss factor (ratio of the two). While these properties are useful in establishing how a gene, signaling pathway, or disease of interest affects bone tissue, they generally do not vary with aging after skeletal maturation or with osteoporosis. Heterogeneity in tissue-level mechanical properties or in compositional properties may contribute to fracture risk, but a consensus on whether the contribution is negative or positive has not emerged. In vivo indentation of bone tissue is now possible, and the mechanical resistance to microindentation has the potential for improving fracture risk assessment, though determinants are currently unknown. PMID:27263108

  14. Introduced Siberian Chipmunks (Tamias sibiricus barberi) Contribute More to Lyme Borreliosis Risk than Native Reservoir Rodents

    PubMed Central

    Marsot, Maud; Chapuis, Jean-Louis; Gasqui, Patrick; Dozières, Anne; Masséglia, Sébastien; Pisanu, Benoit; Ferquel, Elisabeth; Vourc’h, Gwenaël

    2013-01-01

    The variation of the composition in species of host communities can modify the risk of disease transmission. In particular, the introduction of a new host species can increase health threats by adding a new reservoir and/or by amplifying the circulation of either exotic or native pathogens. Lyme borreliosis is a multi-host vector-borne disease caused by bacteria belonging to the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato complex. It is transmitted by the bite of hard ticks, especially Ixodes ricinus in Europe. Previous studies showed that the Siberian chipmunk, Tamias sibiricus barberi, an introduced ground squirrel in the Forest of Sénart (near Paris, France) was highly infested by I. ricinus, and consequently infected by B. burgdorferi sl. An index of the contribution of chipmunks to the density of infected questing nymphs on the vegetation (i.e., the acarological risk for humans) was compared to that of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) and of wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), two known native and sympatric competent reservoir hosts. Chipmunks produced nearly 8.5 times more infected questing nymphs than voles and mice. Furthermore, they contribute to a higher diversity of B. burgdorferi sl genospecies (B. afzelii, B. burgdorferi sensu stricto and B. garinii). The contribution of chipmunks varied between years and seasons, according to tick availability. As T. s. barberi must be a competent reservoir, it should amplify B. burgdorferi sl infection, hence increasing the risk of Lyme borreliosis in humans. PMID:23383170

  15. Jung in education: a review of historical and contemporary contributions from analytical psychology to the field of education.

    PubMed

    Gitz-Johansen, Thomas

    2016-06-01

    The available literature on the influence of Jungian thought on the theory and practice of education leaves the impression that although the work of Carl Jung and analytical psychology have much to offer the field of education, the Jungian influence has so far been slight. While this has certainly been true, the last decade or so has nevertheless witnessed an increased scholarly interest in exploring how analytical psychology may inform and inspire the field of education. As an explanation for this burgeoning interest in Jung, several of the contemporary contributors mention that analytical psychology has the potential of functioning as a counterbalance to the tendencies in Western societies to focus on measurable learning targets and increasingly standardized measures of teaching and assessment. It seems pertinent then to gain an overview of how analytical psychology has so far inspired the field of education and how it may fruitfully continue do so in the future. To this end this paper is structured chronologically, starting with the different phases of Jung's own engagement with the field of education and ending with later post-Jungian applications of his concepts and ideas to education. PMID:27192370

  16. Contribution of inorganic arsenic sources to population exposure risk on a regional scale.

    PubMed

    Chou, Wei-Chun; Chen, Jein-Wen; Liao, Chung-Min

    2016-07-01

    Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) in the human population is associated with various internal cancers and other adverse outcomes. The purpose of this study was to estimate a population-scale exposure risk attributable to iAs consumptions by linking a stochastic physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and biomonitoring data of iAs in urine. The urinary As concentrations were obtained from a total of 1,043 subjects living in an industrial area of Taiwan. The results showed that the study subjects had an iAs exposure risk of 27 % (the daily iAs intake for 27 % study subjects exceeded the WHO-recommended value, 2.1 μg iAs day(-1) kg(-1) body weight). Moreover, drinking water and cooked rice contributed to the iAs exposure risk by 10 and 41 %, respectively. The predicted risks in the current study were 4.82, 27.21, 34.69, and 64.17 %, respectively, among the mid-range of Mexico, Taiwan (this study), Korea, and Bangladesh reported in the literature. In conclusion, we developed a population-scale-based risk model that covered the broad range of iAS exposure by integrating stochastic PBPK modeling and reverse dosimetry to generate probabilistic distribution of As intake corresponding to urinary As measured from the cohort study. The model can also be updated as new urinary As information becomes available. PMID:27048329

  17. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

    PubMed

    Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. PMID:27131016

  18. Managing Learner Contributions in the Adult ESL Classroom: A Conversation Analytic and Ethnographic Examination of Teacher Practices and Cognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fagan, Drew Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Although contemporary second language learning scholars assert that teacher management of learner contributions in classroom interaction is key to promoting learning opportunities, research has yet to make explicit teachers' real-time management practices. Studies on classroom interaction have illuminated how learner contributions are elicited via…

  19. Genes and/or jeans?: Genetic and socio-cultural contributions to risk for eating disorders.

    PubMed

    Becker, Anne E; Keel, Pamela; Anderson-Fye, Eileen P; Thomas, Jennifer J

    2004-01-01

    Eating disorders are prevalent among young adult females and pose serious psychological and medical risks. Notwithstanding important advances, efforts to develop effective means of preventing and treating eating disorders have been limited by an incomplete understanding of their multifactorial etiology. Whereas epidemiologic data strongly suggest the influence of socio-cultural context in moderating risk, many hypotheses about how these effects are exerted have remained empirically unevaluated. Specifically, experimental and observational data suggest that social transition (e.g., transnational migration, urbanization, modernization), Western media exposure, and certain peer environments (involving social comparison and teasing) may all contribute to risk. With respect to genetic influences on etiology, family and twin studies have supported a genetic diathesis to eating disorders. Whereas, molecular genetic studies have generated interesting leads- with the most promising findings emerging for genes related to the function of serotonin-they have yet to identify well-replicated susceptibility loci. This paper reviews the data supporting both socio-cultural and genetic contributions for eating disorders and suggests productive future strategies for continuing to unravel their likely multiple and complex interactions. PMID:15256346

  20. Behavioral Inhibition and Risk for Developing Social Anxiety Disorder: A Meta-Analytic Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clauss, Jacqueline A.; Blackford, Jennifer Urbano

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Behavioral inhibition (BI) has been associated with increased risk for developing social anxiety disorder (SAD); however, the degree of risk associated with BI has yet to be systematically examined and quantified. The goal of the present study was to quantify the association between childhood BI and risk for developing SAD. Method: A…

  1. Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

    SciTech Connect

    Garrick, B.J.

    1997-04-30

    Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor to risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to {open_quotes}fear anything nuclear,{close_quotes} radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure.

  2. Is food allergen analysis flawed? Health and supply chain risks and a proposed framework to address urgent analytical needs.

    PubMed

    Walker, M J; Burns, D T; Elliott, C T; Gowland, M H; Mills, E N Clare

    2016-01-01

    Food allergy is an increasing problem for those affected, their families or carers, the food industry and for regulators. The food supply chain is highly vulnerable to fraud involving food allergens, risking fatalities and severe reputational damage to the food industry. Many facets are being pursued to ameliorate the difficulties including better food labelling and the concept of thresholds of elicitation of allergy symptoms as risk management tools. These efforts depend to a high degree on the ability reliably to detect and quantify food allergens; yet all current analytical approaches exhibit severe deficiencies that jeopardise accurate results being produced particularly in terms of the risks of false positive and false negative reporting. If we fail to realise the promise of current risk assessment and risk management of food allergens through lack of the ability to measure food allergens reproducibly and with traceability to an international unit of measurement, the analytical community will have failed a significant societal challenge. Three distinct but interrelated areas of analytical work are urgently needed to address the substantial gaps identified: (a) a coordinated international programme for the production of properly characterised clinically relevant reference materials and calibrants for food allergen analysis; (b) an international programme to widen the scope of proteomics and genomics bioinformatics for the genera containing the major allergens to address problems in ELISA, MS and DNA methods; (c) the initiation of a coordinated international programme leading to reference methods for allergen proteins that provide results traceable to the SI. This article describes in more detail food allergy, the risks of inapplicable or flawed allergen analyses with examples and a proposed framework, including clinically relevant incurred allergen concentrations, to address the currently unmet and urgently required analytical requirements. Support for the

  3. MORT User's Manual for use with the Management Oversight and Risk Tree analytical logic diagram. [Contains a list of System Safety Development Center publications

    SciTech Connect

    Knox, N.W.; Eicher, R.W.

    1992-02-01

    This report contains the User's Manual for MORT (Management Oversight and Risk Tree), a logic diagram in the form of a work sheet'' that illustrates a long series of interrelated questions. MORT is a comprehensive analytical procedure that provides a disciplined method for determining the causes and contributing factors of major accidents. Alternatively, it serves as a tool to evaluate the quality of an existing system. While similar in many respects to fault tree analysis, MORT is more generalized and presents over 1,500 specific elements of an ideal universal'' management program for optimizing environment, safety and health, and other programs. This User's Manual is intended to be used with the MORT diagram dated February 1992.

  4. CD16 and CD32 Gene Polymorphisms May Contribute to Risk of Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jiannan; Zhao, Liyun; Zhang, Yan; Guo, Qingxu; Chen, Hui

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Epidemiological studies have evaluated the associations of CD16 158F>V and CD32 131H>R gene polymorphisms with the risk of idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP). MATERIAL AND METHODS Published studies on CD16 158F>V and CD32 131H>R polymorphisms with susceptibility to ITP were systematically reviewed until April 1, 2014. The Cochrane Library Database, Medline, CINAHL, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Chinese Biomedical Database (CBM) were used to search for relevant studies and then a meta-analysis was conducted by using Stata 12.0 software in order to produce consistent statistical results. RESULTS In total, 10 clinical case-control studies with 741 ITP patients and 1092 healthy controls were enrolled for quantitative data analysis. Results of this meta-analysis suggest that CD16 158F>V polymorphism had strong correlations with the susceptibility to ITP under 5 genetic models (all P<0.05). However, no similar associations were found between CD32 131H>R polymorphism and the susceptibility to ITP (all P>0.05). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity revealed that CD16 158F>V polymorphism was associated with the increased risk of ITP among both Caucasian and non-Caucasian populations. Nevertheless, no statistically significant correlations between CD32 131H>R polymorphism and the risk of ITP were observed among Caucasians and non-Caucasians (all P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that CD16 158F>V polymorphism may contribute to the increased risk of ITP, whereas CD32 131H>R polymorphism may not be an important risk factor for ITP. PMID:27315784

  5. CD16 and CD32 Gene Polymorphisms May Contribute to Risk of Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Jiannan; Zhao, Liyun; Zhang, Yan; Guo, Qingxu; Chen, Hui

    2016-01-01

    Background Epidemiological studies have evaluated the associations of CD16 158F>V and CD32 131H>R gene polymorphisms with the risk of idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP). Material/Methods Published studies on CD16 158F>V and CD32 131H>R polymorphisms with susceptibility to ITP were systematically reviewed until April 1, 2014. The Cochrane Library Database, Medline, CINAHL, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Chinese Biomedical Database (CBM) were used to search for relevant studies and then a meta-analysis was conducted by using Stata 12.0 software in order to produce consistent statistical results. Results In total, 10 clinical case-control studies with 741 ITP patients and 1092 healthy controls were enrolled for quantitative data analysis. Results of this meta-analysis suggest that CD16 158F>V polymorphism had strong correlations with the susceptibility to ITP under 5 genetic models (all P<0.05). However, no similar associations were found between CD32 131H>R polymorphism and the susceptibility to ITP (all P>0.05). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity revealed that CD16 158F>V polymorphism was associated with the increased risk of ITP among both Caucasian and non-Caucasian populations. Nevertheless, no statistically significant correlations between CD32 131H>R polymorphism and the risk of ITP were observed among Caucasians and non-Caucasians (all P>0.05). Conclusions Our findings indicate that CD16 158F>V polymorphism may contribute to the increased risk of ITP, whereas CD32 131H>R polymorphism may not be an important risk factor for ITP. PMID:27315784

  6. ANALYTICAL METHODS NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT RISK-BASED CRITERIA FOR CHEMICALS IN MUNICIPAL SLUDGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ambient Water Quality Criteria that were promulgated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1980 included water concentration levels which, for many pollutants, were so low as to be unmeasurable by standard analytical methods. Criteria for controlling toxics in munici...

  7. The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

  8. Evidence for an Inherited Predisposition Contributing to the Risk for Rotator Cuff Disease

    PubMed Central

    Tashjian, Robert Z.; Farnham, James M.; Albright, Frederick S.; Teerlink, Craig C.; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A.

    2009-01-01

    Background: A genetic predisposition has been suggested to contribute to the risk for development of rotator cuff disease on the basis of observed family clusters of close relatives. We used a population-based resource combining genealogical data for Utah with clinical diagnosis data from a large Utah hospital to test the hypothesis of excess familial clustering for rotator cuff disease. Methods: The Utah Population Database contains combined health and genealogical data on over two million Utah residents. Current Procedural Terminology, Fourth Revision, codes (29827, 23412, 23410, and 23420) and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes (726.1, 727.61, and 840.4) entered in patient records were used to identify patients with rotator cuff disease. We tested the hypothesis of excess familial clustering using two well-established methods (the Genealogical Index of Familiality test and the estimation of relative risks in relatives) in the overall study group (3091 patients) and a subgroup of the study group diagnosed before the age of forty years (652 patients). Results: The Genealogical Index of Familiality test in patients diagnosed before the age of forty years showed significant excess relatedness for individuals with rotator cuff disease in close and distant relationships (as distant as third cousins) (p = 0.001). The relative risk of rotator cuff disease in the relatives of patients diagnosed before the age of forty years was significantly elevated for second degree (relative risk = 3.66, p = 0.0076) and third degree (relative risk = 1.81, p = 0.0479) relatives. Conclusions: We analyzed a set of patients with diagnosed rotator cuff disease and a known genealogy to describe the familial clustering of affected individuals. The observations of significant excess relatedness of patients and the significantly elevated risks to both close and distant relatives of patients strongly support a heritable predisposition to rotator cuff disease

  9. Contribution to methods for calculating the flow about thin lifting wings at transonic speeds: Analytic expressions for the far field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klunker, E. B.

    1971-01-01

    The problem of determining the small-disturbance flow about two-dimensional airfoils at transonic speeds has been successfully treated by the process of matching a numerical solution of the near field to analytic expressions for the far field. The three-dimensional problem, it would appear, can be treated in a similar way with the aid of algorithms adapted to high-speed and high-capacity computers. The far-field potential for both lifting and nonlifting three-dimensional wings at transonic speeds is developed herein for a subsonic free stream. This potential could be used for a three-dimensional-wing computation similar to the computation made for the two-dimensional wing.

  10. Real-time determination of critical quality attributes using near-infrared spectroscopy: a contribution for Process Analytical Technology (PAT).

    PubMed

    Rosas, Juan G; Blanco, Marcel; González, Josep M; Alcalà, Manel

    2012-08-15

    Process Analytical Technology (PAT) is playing a central role in current regulations on pharmaceutical production processes. Proper understanding of all operations and variables connecting the raw materials to end products is one of the keys to ensuring quality of the products and continuous improvement in their production. Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has been successfully used to develop faster and non-invasive quantitative methods for real-time predicting critical quality attributes (CQA) of pharmaceutical granulates (API content, pH, moisture, flowability, angle of repose and particle size). NIR spectra have been acquired from the bin blender after granulation process in a non-classified area without the need of sample withdrawal. The methodology used for data acquisition, calibration modelling and method application in this context is relatively inexpensive and can be easily implemented by most pharmaceutical laboratories. For this purpose, Partial Least-Squares (PLS) algorithm was used to calculate multivariate calibration models, that provided acceptable Root Mean Square Error of Predictions (RMSEP) values (RMSEP(API)=1.0 mg/g; RMSEP(pH)=0.1; RMSEP(Moisture)=0.1%; RMSEP(Flowability)=0.6 g/s; RMSEP(Angle of repose)=1.7° and RMSEP(Particle size)=2.5%) that allowed the application for routine analyses of production batches. The proposed method affords quality assessment of end products and the determination of important parameters with a view to understanding production processes used by the pharmaceutical industry. As shown here, the NIRS technique is a highly suitable tool for Process Analytical Technologies. PMID:22841062

  11. Risk propensity differences between entrepreneurs and managers: a meta-analytic review.

    PubMed

    Stewart, W H; Roth, P L

    2001-02-01

    Research examining the relative risk-taking propensities of entrepreneurs and managers has produced conflicting findings and no consensus, posing an impediment to theory development. To overcome the limitations of narrative reviews, the authors used psychometric meta-analysis to mathematically cumulate the literature concerning risk propensity differences between entrepreneurs and managers. Results indicate that the risk propensity of entrepreneurs is greater than that of managers. Moreover, there are larger differences between entrepreneurs whose primary goal is venture growth versus those whose focus is on producing family income. Results also underscore the importance of precise construct definitions and rigorous measurement. PMID:11302226

  12. DNA repair gene ERCC1 polymorphisms may contribute to the risk of glioma.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Guanqian; Gao, Dandan; Ding, Shaofeng; Tan, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Polymorphisms in excision repair cross-complementing rodent repair deficiency complementation group 1 (ERCC1) gene have been shown to affect individual susceptibility to glioma, though studies have yielded conflicting results. This meta-analysis aims to derive a more precise estimation of the association between ERCC1 C8092A and C118T polymorphisms and glioma risk. A literature search of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and CBM databases was conducted to identify all eligible studies published before August 5, 2013. Crude odds ratios (ORs) with their corresponding confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to assess the strength of this association. A meta-analysis was performed by reviewing seven studies on the C8092A polymorphism (2,978 cases and 4,051 controls) and four studies on the C118T polymorphism (1,390 Asian cases and 1,546 Asian controls). Pooled analysis yielded a significant association between the C8092A variant genotype and increased risk of glioma. As for ethnicity, the A allele was associated with increased risk of glioma in Asians, while no similar finding was observed in Caucasians. Stratified analyses by histological subtype indicated that the C8092A polymorphism showed a significant association with the risk of non-glioblastoma multiforme. For the C118T polymorphism, increased glioma susceptibility was also observed among Asians. Taken together, results from our meta-analysis support the view that common variants in ERCC1 may contribute to susceptibility to glioma, especially in Asians. However, further studies investigating the significance of these two polymorphisms as markers of susceptibility to and disease progression of glioma are still needed. PMID:24453030

  13. Screening for Chemical Contributions to Breast Cancer Risk: A Case Study for Chemical Safety Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Ackerman, Janet M.; Dairkee, Shanaz H.; Fenton, Suzanne E.; Johnson, Dale; Navarro, Kathleen M.; Osborne, Gwendolyn; Rudel, Ruthann A.; Solomon, Gina M.; Zeise, Lauren; Janssen, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    . Screening for chemical contributions to breast cancer risk: a case study for chemical safety evaluation. Environ Health Perspect 123:1255–1264; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408337 PMID:26032647

  14. Autonomic Nervous System Dysfunction and Inflammation Contribute to the Increased Cardiovascular Mortality Risk Associated With Depression

    PubMed Central

    Kop, Willem J.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Tracy, Russell P.; Barzilay, Joshua I.; Schulz, Richard; Gottdiener, John S.

    2011-01-01

    Objective To investigate prospectively whether autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysfunction and inflammation play a role in the increased cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality risk associated with depression. Methods Participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (n = 907; mean age, 71.3 ± 4.6 years; 59.1% women) were evaluated for ANS indices derived from heart rate variability (HRV) analysis (frequency and time domain HRV, and nonlinear indices, including detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA1) and heart rate turbulence). Inflammation markers included C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, fibrinogen, and white blood cell count). Depressive symptoms were assessed, using the 10-item Centers for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the mortality risk associated with depression, ANS, and inflammation markers, adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Results Depression was associated with ANS dysfunction (DFA1, p = .018), and increased inflammation markers (white blood cell count, p = .012, fibrinogen p = .043) adjusting for covariates. CVD-related mortality occurred in 121 participants during a median follow-up of 13.3 years. Depression was associated with an increased CVD mortality risk (hazard ratio, 1.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.23–2.86). Multivariable analyses showed that depression was an independent predictor of CVD mortality (hazard ratio, 1.72; 95% confidence interval, 1.05–2.83) when adjusting for independent HRV and inflammation predictors (DFA1, heart rate turbulence, interleukin-6), attenuating the depression-CVD mortality association by 12.7% (p < .001). Conclusion Autonomic dysfunction and inflammation contribute to the increased cardiovascular mortality risk associated with depression, but a large portion of the predictive value of depression remains unexplained by these neuroimmunological measures. PMID:20639389

  15. The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

    PubMed Central

    Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

    2016-01-01

    Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

  16. Genetic Risk for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Contributes to Neurodevelopmental Traits in the General Population

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Joanna; Hamshere, Marian L.; Stergiakouli, Evangelia; O’Donovan, Michael C.; Thapar, Anita

    2014-01-01

    Background Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can be viewed as the extreme end of traits in the general population. Epidemiological and twin studies suggest that ADHD frequently co-occurs with and shares genetic susceptibility with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and ASD-related traits. The aims of this study were to determine whether a composite of common molecular genetic variants, previously found to be associated with clinically diagnosed ADHD, predicts ADHD and ASD-related traits in the general population. Methods Polygenic risk scores were calculated in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) population sample (N = 8229) based on a discovery case-control genome-wide association study of childhood ADHD. Regression analyses were used to assess whether polygenic scores predicted ADHD traits and ASD-related measures (pragmatic language abilities and social cognition) in the ALSPAC sample. Polygenic scores were also compared in boys and girls endorsing any (rating ≥1) ADHD item (n = 3623). Results Polygenic risk for ADHD showed a positive association with ADHD traits (hyperactive-impulsive, p = .0039; inattentive, p = .037). Polygenic risk for ADHD was also negatively associated with pragmatic language abilities (p = .037) but not with social cognition (p = .43). In children with a rating ≥1 for ADHD traits, girls had a higher polygenic score than boys (p = .003). Conclusions These findings provide molecular genetic evidence that risk alleles for the categorical disorder of ADHD influence hyperactive-impulsive and attentional traits in the general population. The results further suggest that common genetic variation that contributes to ADHD diagnosis may also influence ASD-related traits, which at their extreme are a characteristic feature of ASD. PMID:24673882

  17. Contribution of Major Lifestyle Risk Factors for Incident Heart Failure in Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Del Gobbo, Liana C.; Kalantarian, Shadi; Imamura, Fumiaki; Lemaitre, Rozenn; Siscovick, David S.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The goal of this study was to determine the relative contribution of major lifestyle factors on the development of heart failure (HF) in older adults. Background HF incurs high morbidity, mortality, and health care costs among adults ≥65 years of age, which is the most rapidly growing segment of the U.S. population. Methods We prospectively investigated separate and combined associations of lifestyle risk factors with incident HF (1,380 cases) over 21.5 years among 4,490 men and women in the Cardiovascular Health Study, which is a community-based cohort of older adults. Lifestyle factors included 4 dietary patterns (Alternative Healthy Eating Index, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, an American Heart Association 2020 dietary goals score, and a Biologic pattern, which was constructed using previous knowledge of cardiovascular disease dietary risk factors), 4 physical activity metrics (exercise intensity, walking pace, energy expended in leisure activity, and walking distance), alcohol intake, smoking, and obesity. Results No dietary pattern was associated with developing HF (p > 0.05). Walking pace and leisure activity were associated with a 26% and 22% lower risk of HF, respectively (pace >3 mph vs. <2 mph; hazard ratio [HR]: 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63 to 0.86; leisure activity ≥845 kcal/week vs. <845 kcal/week; HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.69 to 0.87). Modest alcohol intake, maintaining a body mass index <30 kg/m2, and not smoking were also independently associated with a lower risk of HF. Participants with ≥4 healthy lifestyle factors had a 45% (HR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.42 to 0.74) lower risk of HF. Heterogeneity by age, sex, cardiovascular disease, hypertension medication use, and diabetes was not observed. Conclusions Among older U.S. adults, physical activity, modest alcohol intake, avoiding obesity, and not smoking, but not dietary patterns, were associated with a lower risk of HF. PMID:26160366

  18. BIVARIATE LINKAGE CONFIRMS GENETIC CONTRIBUTION TO FETAL ORIGINS OF CHILDHOOD GROWTH AND CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK IN HISPANIC CHILDREN

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Birth weight has been shown to be associated with obesity and metabolic diseases in adulthood; however, the genetic contribution is still controversial. The objective of this analysis is to explore the genetic contribution to the relationship between birth weight and later risk for obesity and metab...

  19. Precise determination of the low-energy hadronic contribution to the muon g -2 from analyticity and unitarity: An improved analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ananthanarayan, B.; Caprini, Irinel; Das, Diganta; Imsong, I. Sentitemsu

    2016-06-01

    The two-pion low-energy contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, aμ≡(g -2 )μ/2 , expressed as an integral over the modulus squared of the pion electromagnetic form factor, brings a relatively large contribution to the theoretical error, since the low accuracy of experimental measurements in this region is amplified by the drastic increase of the integration kernel. We derive stringent constraints on the two-pion contribution by exploiting analyticity and unitarity of the pion electromagnetic form factor. To avoid the poor knowledge of the modulus of this function, we use instead its phase, known with high precision in the elastic region from Roy equations for pion-pion scattering via the Fermi-Watson theorem. Above the inelastic threshold we adopt a conservative integral condition on the modulus, determined from data and perturbative QCD. Additional high precision data on the modulus in the range 0.65-0.71 GeV, obtained from e+e- annihilation and τ -decay experiments, are used to improve the predictions on the modulus at lower energies by means of a parametrization-free analytic extrapolation. The results are optimal for a given input and do not depend on the unknown phase of the form factor above the inelastic threshold. The present work improves a previous analysis based on the same technique, including more experimental data and employing better statistical tools for their treatment. We obtain for the contribution to aμ from below 0.63 GeV the value (133.258 ±0.723 )×10-10 , which amounts to a reduction of the theoretical error by about 6 ×10-11 .

  20. Risks and opportunities for psychology's contribution to the war on cancer.

    PubMed

    Croyle, Robert T

    2015-01-01

    This special issue of American Psychologist reviews a broad, diverse, and growing research literature that has established the discipline as an essential source of evidence concerning cancer prevention and control. Nevertheless, the history of psychological science that is intended to inform cancer control suggests a number of risks going forward that could attenuate the impact of this work. Fortunately, the field also faces new opportunities to contribute more substantially, especially if psychologists engage the broader biomedical and public health communities through rigorous, relevant, multilevel research that is informed by current knowledge of the disease and its treatment, the skills required to participate in large-scale trans-disciplinary team science, and an appreciation of the economic, organizational, and policy context of cancer control at the local and national levels. PMID:25730727

  1. Do neutrophil extracellular traps contribute to the heightened risk of thrombosis in inflammatory diseases?

    PubMed Central

    Rao, Ashish N; Kazzaz, Nayef M; Knight, Jason S

    2015-01-01

    Thrombotic events, both arterial and venous, are a major health concern worldwide. Further, autoimmune diseases, such as systemic lupus erythematosus, anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis, and antiphospholipid syndrome, predispose to thrombosis, and thereby push the risk for these morbid events even higher. In recent years, neutrophils have been identified as important players in both arterial and venous thrombosis. Specifically, chromatin-based structures called neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) play a key role in activating the coagulation cascade, recruiting platelets, and serving as scaffolding upon which the thrombus can be assembled. At the same time, neutrophils and NETs are emerging as important mediators of pathogenic inflammation in the aforementioned autoimmune diseases. Here, we first review the general role of NETs in thrombosis. We then posit that exaggerated NET release contributes to the prothrombotic diatheses of systemic lupus erythematosus, ANCA-associated vasculitis, and antiphospholipid syndrome. PMID:26730289

  2. Analgesic use and risk of renal cell carcinoma: A case-control, cohort and meta-analytic assessment.

    PubMed

    Karami, Sara; Daughtery, Sarah E; Schwartz, Kendra; Davis, Faith G; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Wacholder, Sholom; Graubard, Barry I; Berndt, Sonja I; Hofmann, Jonathan N; Purdue, Mark P; Moore, Lee E; Colt, Joanne S

    2016-08-01

    Analgesics are the most commonly consumed drugs worldwide. Evidence that analgesics increase kidney cancer risk has been mixed. We investigated the association between renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and analgesic use in a large population-based case-control study and a post-trial observational cohort study. Findings were used to update a recent meta-analytic review. We analyzed data from 1,217 RCC cases and 1,235 controls in the US Kidney Cancer Study and 98,807 participants in the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO: n = 137 RCCs). Self-reported acetaminophen, aspirin and nonsteroid anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use and duration information was assessed in relation to RCC. For the US Kidney Cancer Study, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using unconditional logistic regression. For PLCO, we computed hazard ratios (HRs) and 95%CIs using Cox regression. Among case-control participants, RCC risk was associated with over-the-counter acetaminophen use (OR = 1.35, 95%CI = 1.01-1.83). There was a positive trend with increasing duration (p-trend = 0.01), with a two-fold risk for use ≥10 years (OR = 2.01, 95%CI = 1.30-3.12). No association with prescription acetaminophen use was detected. In PLCO, acetaminophen use was also associated with increased RCC risk (HR = 1.68, 95%CI = 1.19-2.39), although elevated risk was absent among the few long-term users. No association with RCC risk was detected for aspirin or NSAIDs use in either study. An association between acetaminophen use and kidney cancer was supported by meta-analytic cohort (n = 4; summary relative risk = 1.34; 95%CI = 1.13-1.59; p-heterogeneity  = 0.40) and case-control (n = 9, summary OR = 1.20; 95%CI = 1.01-1.42; p-heterogeneity  = 0.05) findings. In brief, acetaminophen use may increase the risk of developing RCC. PMID:27009534

  3. Behavioral HIV Risk Reduction among People Who Inject Drugs: Meta-Analytic Evidence of Efficacy

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Blair T.; Lee, I-Ching; Harman, Jennifer J.; Carey, Michael P.

    2008-01-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate behavioral HIV-risk reduction interventions targeting people who inject drugs. We included 37 RCTs evaluating 49 independent HIV-risk reduction interventions with 10,190 participants. Compared to controls, intervention participants reduced injection-and non-injection drug use, increased drug treatment entry, increased condom use, and decreased trading sex for drugs. Interventions were more successful at reducing injection drug use when participants were non-Caucasians, when content focused equivalently on drug- and sex-related risk, and when content included interpersonal skills training specific to safer needle use. Condom use outcomes improved when two intervention facilitators were used instead of one. Injection drug use outcomes did not decay, but condom use outcomes did. Behavioral interventions do reduce risk behaviors among people who inject drugs, especially when interventions target both drug- and sexual-risk behavior, and when they include certain behavioral skills components. Implications for future interventions are presented. PMID:16919744

  4. An analytical framework for flood water conservation considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Wei; Zhang, Chi; Peng, Yong; Zeng, Ruijie; Zhou, Huicheng; Cai, Ximing

    2015-06-01

    This paper addresses how much flood water can be conserved for use after the flood season through the operation of reservoir by taking into account the residual flood control capacity (the difference between flood conveyance capacity and the expected inflow in a lead time). A two-stage model for dynamic control of the flood-limited water level (the maximum allowed water level during the flood season, DC-FLWL) is established considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable flood risk. It is found that DC-FLWL is applicable when the reservoir inflow ranges from small to medium levels of the historical records, while both forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk in the downstream affect the feasible space of DC-FLWL. As forecast uncertainty increases (under a given risk level) or as acceptable risk level decreases (under a given forecast uncertainty level), the minimum required safety margin for flood control increases, and the chance for DC-FLWL decreases. The derived hedging rules from the modeling framework illustrate either the dominant role of water conservation or flood control or the trade-off between the two objectives under different levels of forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk. These rules may provide useful guidelines for conserving water from flood, especially in the area with heavy water stress. The analysis is illustrated via a case study with a real-world reservoir in northeastern China.

  5. Sexual Risk Reduction Interventions for HIV Prevention among South African Youth: A Meta-Analytic Review

    PubMed Central

    Scott-Sheldon, Lori A. J.; Walstrom, Paige; Harrison, Abigail; Kalichman, Seth C.; Carey, Michael P.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To examine the efficacy of sexual risk reduction interventions among South African youth. Methods Electronic databases were searched to identify studies published between 2007 and early 2013. Studies were eligible if they (1) targeted youth age 9–26, (2) evaluated sexual risk reduction interventions and (3) reported at least one behavioral outcome. Independent raters coded study characteristics, and intervention content. Weighted mean effect sizes were calculated; positive effect sizes indicated less sexual risk behavior and incident STIs. Results Ten studies (k = 11, N = 22,788; 54% female; 79% Black-African) were included. Compared to controls, interventions were successful at delaying sexual intercourse and, among sexually active youth, at increasing condom use. A single study found reductions in the incidence of herpes simplex virus-2, but not HIV. Conclusions Implementing behavioral interventions to delay sexual debut and improve condom use can help to reduce the transmission of HIV among South African youth. PMID:24476351

  6. Risk Factors Contributing to Type 2 Diabetes and Recent Advances in the Treatment and Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Yanling; Ding, Yanping; Tanaka, Yoshimasa; Zhang, Wen

    2014-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes is a serious and common chronic disease resulting from a complex inheritance-environment interaction along with other risk factors such as obesity and sedentary lifestyle. Type 2 diabetes and its complications constitute a major worldwide public health problem, affecting almost all populations in both developed and developing countries with high rates of diabetes-related morbidity and mortality. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes has been increasing exponentially, and a high prevalence rate has been observed in developing countries and in populations undergoing “westernization” or modernization. Multiple risk factors of diabetes, delayed diagnosis until micro- and macro-vascular complications arise, life-threatening complications, failure of the current therapies, and financial costs for the treatment of this disease, make it necessary to develop new efficient therapy strategies and appropriate prevention measures for the control of type 2 diabetes. Herein, we summarize our current understanding about the epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, the roles of genes, lifestyle and other factors contributing to rapid increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The core aims are to bring forward the new therapy strategies and cost-effective intervention trials of type 2 diabetes. PMID:25249787

  7. Risk factors contributing to type 2 diabetes and recent advances in the treatment and prevention.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yanling; Ding, Yanping; Tanaka, Yoshimasa; Zhang, Wen

    2014-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes is a serious and common chronic disease resulting from a complex inheritance-environment interaction along with other risk factors such as obesity and sedentary lifestyle. Type 2 diabetes and its complications constitute a major worldwide public health problem, affecting almost all populations in both developed and developing countries with high rates of diabetes-related morbidity and mortality. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes has been increasing exponentially, and a high prevalence rate has been observed in developing countries and in populations undergoing "westernization" or modernization. Multiple risk factors of diabetes, delayed diagnosis until micro- and macro-vascular complications arise, life-threatening complications, failure of the current therapies, and financial costs for the treatment of this disease, make it necessary to develop new efficient therapy strategies and appropriate prevention measures for the control of type 2 diabetes. Herein, we summarize our current understanding about the epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, the roles of genes, lifestyle and other factors contributing to rapid increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The core aims are to bring forward the new therapy strategies and cost-effective intervention trials of type 2 diabetes. PMID:25249787

  8. A Common Variant in the PTPN11 Gene Contributes to the Risk of Tetralogy of Fallot

    PubMed Central

    Goodship, Judith A.; Hall, Darroch; Topf, Ana; Mamasoula, Chrysovalanto; Griffin, Helen; Rahman, Thahira J.; Glen, Elise; Tan, Huay; Doza, Julian Palomino; Relton, Caroline L.; Bentham, Jamie; Bhattacharya, Shoumo; Cosgrove, Catherine; Brook, David; Granados-Riveron, Javier; Bu’Lock, Frances A.; O’Sullivan, John; Stuart, A. Graham; Parsons, Jonathan; Cordell, Heather J.; Keavney, Bernard

    2015-01-01

    Background Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) is the commonest cyanotic form of congenital heart disease. In 80% of cases, TOF behaves as a complex genetic condition exhibiting significant heritability. As yet, no common genetic variants influencing TOF risk have been robustly identified. Methods and Results Two hundred and seven haplotype-tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms in 22 candidate genes were genotyped in a test cohort comprising 362 nonsyndromic British white patients with TOF together with 717 unaffected parents of patients and 183 unrelated healthy controls. Single nucleotide polymorphisms with suggestive evidence of association in the test cohort (P<0.01) were taken forward for genotyping in an independent replication cohort comprising 392 cases of TOF, 218 unaffected parents of patients, and 1319 controls. Significant association was observed for 1 single nucleotide polymorphism, rs11066320 in the PTPN11 gene, in both the test and the replication cohort. Genotype at rs11066320 was associated with a per-allele odds ratio of 1.34 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 1.52; P=2.9×10−6) in the total cohort of TOF cases and controls; this remained highly significant after Bonferroni correction for 207 analyses (corrected P=0.00061). Genotype at rs11066320 was responsible for a population-attributable risk of TOF of approximately 10%. Conclusions Common variation in the linkage disequilibrium block including the PTPN11 gene contributes to the risk of nonsyndromic TOF. Rare mutations in PTPN11 are known to cause the autosomal dominant condition Noonan syndrome, which includes congenital heart disease, by upregulating Ras/mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling. Our results suggest a role for milder perturbations in PTPN11 function in sporadic, nonsyndromic congenital heart disease. PMID:22503907

  9. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000.

    PubMed

    Pall, Pardeep; Aina, Tolu; Stone, Dáithí A; Stott, Peter A; Nozawa, Toru; Hilberts, Arno G J; Lohmann, Dag; Allen, Myles R

    2011-02-17

    Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion (refs 5, 6). Although the flooding was deemed a 'wake-up call' to the impacts of climate change at the time, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based 'probabilistic event attribution' framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%. PMID:21331040

  10. An Analytical Framework for Flood Water Conservation Considering Forecast Uncertainty and Acceptable Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, W.; Zhang, C.

    2015-12-01

    Reservoir water levels are usually not allowed to exceed the flood limited water level (FLWL) during flood season, which neglects the meteorological and real-time forecast information and leads to the great waste of water resources. With the development of weather forecasting, hydrologic modeling, and hydro-climatic teleconnection, the streamflow forecast precision have improved a lot, which provides the technical support for the flood water utilization. This paper addresses how much flood water can be conserved for use after the flood season through the operation of reservoir based on uncertain forecast information by taking into account the residual flood control capacity (the difference between flood conveyance capacity and the expected inflow in a lead time). A two-stage model for dynamic control of the flood limited water level (the maximum allowed water level during the flood season, DC-FLWL) is established considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable flood risk. It is found that DC-FLWL is applicable when the reservoir inflow ranges from small to medium levels of the historical records, while both forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk in the downstream affect the feasible space of DC-FLWL. As forecast uncertainty increases (under a given risk level) or as acceptable risk level decreases (under a given forecast uncertainty level), the minimum required safety margin for flood control increases, and the chance for DC-FLWL decreases. The derived hedging rules from the modeling framework illustrate either the dominant role of water conservation or flood control or the tradeoff between the two objectives under different levels of forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk. These rules may provide useful guidelines for conserving water from flood, especially in the area with heavy water stress.

  11. A survey of probabilistic methods used in reliability, risk and uncertainty analysis: Analytical techniques 1

    SciTech Connect

    Robinson, D.G.

    1998-06-01

    This report provides an introduction to the various probabilistic methods developed roughly between 1956--1985 for performing reliability or probabilistic uncertainty analysis on complex systems. This exposition does not include the traditional reliability methods (e.g. parallel-series systems, etc.) that might be found in the many reliability texts and reference materials (e.g. and 1977). Rather, the report centers on the relatively new, and certainly less well known across the engineering community, analytical techniques. Discussion of the analytical methods has been broken into two reports. This particular report is limited to those methods developed between 1956--1985. While a bit dated, methods described in the later portions of this report still dominate the literature and provide a necessary technical foundation for more current research. A second report (Analytical Techniques 2) addresses methods developed since 1985. The flow of this report roughly follows the historical development of the various methods so each new technique builds on the discussion of strengths and weaknesses of previous techniques. To facilitate the understanding of the various methods discussed, a simple 2-dimensional problem is used throughout the report. The problem is used for discussion purposes only; conclusions regarding the applicability and efficiency of particular methods are based on secondary analyses and a number of years of experience by the author. This document should be considered a living document in the sense that as new methods or variations of existing methods are developed, the document and references will be updated to reflect the current state of the literature as much as possible. For those scientists and engineers already familiar with these methods, the discussion will at times become rather obvious. However, the goal of this effort is to provide a common basis for future discussions and, as such, will hopefully be useful to those more intimate with

  12. Vitamin D Receptor Gene FokI Polymorphism Contributes to Increasing the Risk of Tuberculosis

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Liling; Liu, Cunxu; Liao, Guangfu; Yang, Xiaobing; Tang, Xiuwen; Chen, Jingjie

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The association between vitamin D receptor (VDR) FokI polymorphism and tuberculosis (TB) risk remains a matter of debate. Potential selection bias exists in most studies using HIV-positive TB patients. An update meta-analysis was carried out to derive a more reliable assessment of the association between FokI polymorphisms and TB risk, especially in HIV-negative TB patients. All major databases from inception to June 2015 were searched for all publications that studied the association between FokI polymorphism and TB risk. The odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated according to the frequencies of genotypes. In total, 32 studies with 4894 cases and 5319 controls were included in this meta-analysis. In the overall analysis, the estimated OR was 1.34 (95% CI=1.091–1.646, P = 0.005) in the best genetic model (recessive model, ff vs fF+FF) with moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 32.2%, P = 0.043). In the subgroup analysis stratified by HIV status, significant associations were found only in the HIV-negative TB group (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.180–2.077, P = 0.002; I2 = 29.5%, and P = 0.141 for heterogeneity). In the subgroup analysis stratified by ethnicity, significant associations were found in the Asian group (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.205–2.261, P = 0.002; I2 = 43.9%, and P = 0.024 for heterogeneity), but not in the Caucasian group (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.762–1.547, P = 0.649; I2 = 0.0%, and P = 0.740 for heterogeneity) and African group (OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.726–1.341, P = 0.934; I2 = 43.9%, and P = 0.024 for heterogeneity). This meta-analysis confirms that VDR FokI polymorphism contributes to the risk of TB, especially in HIV-negative TB patients and in the Asian group. Further studies are required to clarify the role of the FokI polymorphism in HIV-positive TB and in other ethnic groups. PMID:26705207

  13. Intrapartum Cesarean Delivery in Nulliparas: Risk Factors Compared by Two Analytical Approaches

    PubMed Central

    Kominiarek, Michelle A.; VanVeldhuisen, Paul; Gregory, Kimberly; Fridman, Moshe; Kim, Hajwa; Hibbard, Judith U.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To determine risk factors for cesarean delivery in nulliparas at labor admission. Study Design Nulliparas with liveborn, singleton gestations ≥37 weeks in spontaneous or induced labor were analyzed from the Consortium on Safe Labor database in a retrospective observational study. Classification and regression tree (CART) and multivariate logistic regression analysis determined risk factors for cesarean delivery. Result Of the 66,539 nulliparas, 22% had a cesarean delivery. In the CART analysis, the first cervical dilation exam was the first branch followed by body mass index (BMI). Cesarean deliveries occurred in 45%, 25%, 14%, and 10% of deliveries at <1cm, 1-3cm, 4cm, and ≥5cm dilated respectively. The BMI influence was most evident in the <1cm dilation category with 26% of BMI<25 and 66% of BMI≥40 having a cesarean delivery. The fewest cesarean deliveries (5%) occurred in those ≥5cm and BMI<25. In the multivariate regression analysis, first cervical dilation exam <1cm (OR 5.1, 95%CI 4.5-5.7; reference ≥5cm) and BMI≥40 (OR 5.1, 95%CI 4.6-5.7; reference BMI<25.0) had the highest odds for cesarean delivery. Conclusion Cervical dilation on admission followed by BMI were the two most important risk factors for cesarean delivery identified in both CART and multivariate regression analysis. PMID:25254334

  14. Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parwatiningtyas, Diyan; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia; Marlina, Dwi; Wiratomo, Yogi

    2014-03-01

    Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area.

  15. Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

    SciTech Connect

    Parwatiningtyas, Diyan E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Marlina, Dwi E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Wiratomo, Yogi E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com

    2014-03-24

    Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area.

  16. The contribution of rare and common variants in 30 genes to risk nicotine dependence.

    PubMed

    Yang, J; Wang, S; Yang, Z; Hodgkinson, C A; Iarikova, P; Ma, J Z; Payne, T J; Goldman, D; Li, M D

    2015-11-01

    Genetic and functional studies have revealed that both common and rare variants of several nicotinic acetylcholine receptor subunits are associated with nicotine dependence (ND). In this study, we identified variants in 30 candidate genes including nicotinic receptors in 200 sib pairs selected from the Mid-South Tobacco Family population with equal numbers of African Americans (AAs) and European Americans (EAs). We selected 135 of the rare and common variants and genotyped them in the Mid-South Tobacco Case-Control (MSTCC) population, which consists of 3088 AAs and 1430 EAs. None of the genotyped common variants showed significant association with smoking status (smokers vs non-smokers), Fagerström Test for ND scores or indexed cigarettes per day after Bonferroni correction. Rare variants in NRXN1, CHRNA9, CHRNA2, NTRK2, GABBR2, GRIN3A, DNM1, NRXN2, NRXN3 and ARRB2 were significantly associated with smoking status in the MSTCC AA sample, with weighted sum statistic (WSS) P-values ranging from 2.42 × 10(-3) to 1.31 × 10(-4) after 10(6) phenotype rearrangements. We also observed a significant excess of rare nonsynonymous variants exclusive to EA smokers in NRXN1, CHRNA9, TAS2R38, GRIN3A, DBH, ANKK1/DRD2, NRXN3 and CDH13 with WSS P-values between 3.5 × 10(-5) and 1 × 10(-6). Variants rs142807401 (A432T) and rs139982841 (A452V) in CHRNA9 and variants V132L, V389L, rs34755188 (R480H) and rs75981117 (N549S) in GRIN3A are of particular interest because they are found in both the AA and EA samples. A significant aggregate contribution of rare and common coding variants in CHRNA9 to the risk for ND (SKAT-C: P=0.0012) was detected by applying the combined sum test in MSTCC EAs. Together, our results indicate that rare variants alone or combined with common variants in a subset of 30 biological candidate genes contribute substantially to the risk of ND. PMID:25450229

  17. The Contribution of Rare and Common Variants in 30 Genes to Risk Nicotine Dependence

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jiekun; Wang, Shaolin; Yang, Zhongli; Hodgkinson, Colin A.; Iarikova, Polina; Ma, Jennie Z.; Payne, Thomas J.; Goldman, David; Li, Ming D.

    2014-01-01

    Genetic and functional studies have revealed that both common and rare variants of several nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR) subunits are associated with nicotine dependence (ND). In this study, we identified variants in 30 candidate genes including nicotinic receptors in 200 sib pairs selected from the Mid-South Tobacco Family (MSTF) population with equal numbers of African Americans (AAs) and European Americans (EAs). We selected 135 of the rare and common variants and genotyped them in the Mid-South Tobacco Case-Control (MSTCC) population, which consists of 3088 AAs and 1430 EAs. None of the genotyped common variants showed significant association with smoking status (smokers vs. non-smokers), Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND) scores, or indexed cigarettes per day (CPD) after Bonferroni correction. Rare variants in NRXN1, CHRNA9, CHRNA2, NTRK2, GABBR2, GRIN3A, DNM1, NRXN2, NRXN3, and ARRB2 were significantly associated with smoking status in the MSTCC AA sample, with Weighted Sum Statistic (WSS) P values ranging from 2.42 × 10−3 to 1.31 × 10−4 after 106 phenotype rearrangements. We also observed a significant excess of rare nonsynonymous variants exclusive to EA smokers in NRXN1, CHRNA9, TAS2R38, GRIN3A, DBH, ANKK1/DRD2, NRXN3, and CDH13 with WSS P values between 3.5 × 10−5 and 1 × 10−6. Variants rs142807401 (A432T) and rs139982841 (A452V) in CHRNA9 and variants V132L, V389L, rs34755188 (R480H), and rs75981117 (N549S) in GRIN3A are of particular interest because they are found in both the AA and EA samples. A significant aggregate contribution of rare and common coding variants in CHRNA9 to the risk for ND (SKAT-C: P= 0.0012) was detected by applying the combined sum test in MSTCC EAs. Together, our results indicate that rare variants alone or combined with common variants in a subset of 30 biological candidate genes contribute substantially to the risk of ND. PMID:25450229

  18. Investigating the Contribution of Common Genetic Variants to the Risk and Pathogenesis of ADHD

    PubMed Central

    Hamshere, Marian; Holmans, Peter; Langley, Kate; Zaharieva, Irina; Hawi, Ziarah; Kent, Lindsey; Gill, Michael; Williams, Nigel; Owen, Michael J.; O'Donovan, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Objective: A major motivation for seeking disease-associated genetic variation is to identify novel risk processes. Although rare copy number variants (CNVs) appear to contribute to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), common risk variants (single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) have not yet been detected using genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This raises the concern as to whether future larger-scale, adequately powered GWAS will be worthwhile. The authors undertook a GWAS of ADHD and examined whether associated SNPs, including those below conventional levels of significance, influenced the same biological pathways affected by CNVs. Method: The authors analyzed genome-wide SNP frequencies in 727 children with ADHD and 5,081 comparison subjects. The gene sets that were enriched in a pathway analysis of the GWAS data (the top 5% of SNPs) were tested for an excess of genes spanned by large, rare CNVs in the children with ADHD. Results: No SNP achieved genome-wide significance levels. As previously reported in a subsample of the present study, large, rare CNVs were significantly more common in case subjects than comparison subjects. Thirteen biological pathways enriched for SNP association significantly overlapped with those enriched for rare CNVs. These included cholesterol-related and CNS development pathways. At the level of individual genes, CHRNA7, which encodes a nicotinic receptor subunit previously implicated in neuropsychiatric disorders, was affected by six large duplications in case subjects (none in comparison subjects), and SNPs in the gene had a gene-wide p value of 0.0002 for association in the GWAS. Conclusions: Both common and rare genetic variants appear to be relevant to ADHD and index-shared biological pathways. PMID:22420046

  19. Protective and risk factors for adolescent sleep: a meta-analytic review.

    PubMed

    Bartel, Kate A; Gradisar, Michael; Williamson, Paul

    2015-06-01

    Teenagers need sufficient sleep to function well daily, yet consolidated evidence advising which factors protect, or harm, adolescents' sleep is lacking. Forty-one studies, published between 2003 and February, 2014, were meta-analysed. Mean weighted r values were calculated to better understand the strength of protective and risk factors for 85,561 adolescents' (age range = 12-18 y) bedtime, sleep onset latency (SOL) and total sleep time (TST). Results showed good sleep hygiene and physical activity were associated with earlier bedtimes. Video gaming, phone, computer and internet use, and evening light related to delayed bedtimes. Good sleep hygiene negatively correlated with sleep latency. Alternatively, sleep latency lengthened as a negative family environment increased. Tobacco, computer use, evening light, a negative family environment and caffeine were associated with decreased total sleep, whereas good sleep hygiene and parent-set bedtimes related to longer sleep length. Good sleep hygiene appears to be protective, whereas a negative home environment and evening light appear to be risk factors. Cautious use of technology (other than television), caffeine, tobacco and alcohol should be considered. These factors, along with pre-sleep worry, are likely to have some negative impact on sleep. Parent-set bedtimes and physical activity may be beneficial. Future research directions are discussed. PMID:25444442

  20. Exploring the risk factors contributing to suicide attempt among adolescents: A qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    Bazrafshan, Mohammad-Rafi; Sharif, Farkhondeh; Molazem, Zahra; Mani, Arash

    2016-01-01

    Background: Since suicide attempt among adolescents is a major challenge and the reasons why this age group attempt suicide are complex, the aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors that contribute to suicide attempt among adolescents. Materials and Methods: In this qualitative content analysis, 14 adolescents (12–19 years old) who were admitted in two hospitals in Shiraz, Iran, were interviewed. Participants who tried attempt suicide with medication were selected by purposive sampling and the data were gathered by semi-structured interviews. Data analysis was guided by the conventional approach of qualitative content analysis. Results: Three major themes and 13 subthemes emerged from data analysis. The main themes were: (a) Individual factors and experiences (psycho-emotional problems, puberty, religious beliefs, stress management strategies, marriage and love, field and level of education); (b) family factors (family structure, family relationship, family economic features, family health conditions); and (c) social factors (suicidal behavior in others, media influence, professional support). Conclusions: This study identified three major themes related to suicide attempt among adolescents in the context. As a result, suicide prevention and care provision should formulate a comprehensive method, considering the interaction of medical besides individual, familiar, and social factors in their assessment and care provision. PMID:26985229

  1. How the Illicit Drug Economy Contributes to HIV Risk in St Vincent and the Grenadines.

    PubMed

    Myers, Janet J; Maiorana, Andre; Chapman, Katharine; Lall, Rosemary; Kassie, Nadine; Persaud, Navindra

    2011-01-01

    St Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) is the largest marijuana producer in the Eastern Caribbean. As the European Union has phased out preferred access for its banana crop, marijuana has become one of the main sources of income and a safety net for many young men, in particular. HIV is a problem for youth in SVG where 60% of the population and 50% of cumulative AIDS cases are among individuals under 30 years of age. To explore the relationship between the economic context and HIV, we used rapid appraisal methods including field observations, interviews, and focus groups with 43 key informants. We found that the marijuana-related economy has contributed to social conditions favoring HIV transmission among young people in several interrelated ways. A lively youth culture exists which includes frequent parties, heavy drinking, sex with multiple partners, and the desire to be seen with the best material goods. Men with access to money are able to attract younger partners for parties and sex. Condoms are infrequently used. We conclude that reducing HIV risk will require structural interventions to reduce discrimination and increase economic opportunity. PMID:21876217

  2. Disproportionate Contributions of Select Genomic Compartments and Cell Types to Genetic Risk for Coronary Artery Disease

    PubMed Central

    Won, Hong-Hee; Natarajan, Pradeep; Dobbyn, Amanda; Jordan, Daniel M.; Roussos, Panos; Lage, Kasper; Raychaudhuri, Soumya

    2015-01-01

    Large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many genetic loci associated with risk for myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary artery disease (CAD). Concurrently, efforts such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Roadmap Epigenomics Project and the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) Consortium have provided unprecedented data on functional elements of the human genome. In the present study, we systematically investigate the biological link between genetic variants associated with this complex disease and their impacts on gene function. First, we examined the heritability of MI/CAD according to genomic compartments. We observed that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) residing within nearby regulatory regions show significant polygenicity and contribute between 59–71% of the heritability for MI/CAD. Second, we showed that the polygenicity and heritability explained by these SNPs are enriched in histone modification marks in specific cell types. Third, we found that a statistically higher number of 45 MI/CAD-associated SNPs that have been identified from large-scale GWAS studies reside within certain functional elements of the genome, particularly in active enhancer and promoter regions. Finally, we observed significant heterogeneity of this signal across cell types, with strong signals observed within adipose nuclei, as well as brain and spleen cell types. These results suggest that the genetic etiology of MI/CAD is largely explained by tissue-specific regulatory perturbation within the human genome. PMID:26509271

  3. Disproportionate Contributions of Select Genomic Compartments and Cell Types to Genetic Risk for Coronary Artery Disease.

    PubMed

    Won, Hong-Hee; Natarajan, Pradeep; Dobbyn, Amanda; Jordan, Daniel M; Roussos, Panos; Lage, Kasper; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Stahl, Eli; Do, Ron

    2015-10-01

    Large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many genetic loci associated with risk for myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary artery disease (CAD). Concurrently, efforts such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Roadmap Epigenomics Project and the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) Consortium have provided unprecedented data on functional elements of the human genome. In the present study, we systematically investigate the biological link between genetic variants associated with this complex disease and their impacts on gene function. First, we examined the heritability of MI/CAD according to genomic compartments. We observed that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) residing within nearby regulatory regions show significant polygenicity and contribute between 59-71% of the heritability for MI/CAD. Second, we showed that the polygenicity and heritability explained by these SNPs are enriched in histone modification marks in specific cell types. Third, we found that a statistically higher number of 45 MI/CAD-associated SNPs that have been identified from large-scale GWAS studies reside within certain functional elements of the genome, particularly in active enhancer and promoter regions. Finally, we observed significant heterogeneity of this signal across cell types, with strong signals observed within adipose nuclei, as well as brain and spleen cell types. These results suggest that the genetic etiology of MI/CAD is largely explained by tissue-specific regulatory perturbation within the human genome. PMID:26509271

  4. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  5. Predicting rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element models: development and preliminary evaluation of a probabilistic analytical framework.

    PubMed

    Forman, Jason L; Kent, Richard W; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5-7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992-2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction. PMID:23169122

  6. Predicting Rib Fracture Risk With Whole-Body Finite Element Models: Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Probabilistic Analytical Framework

    PubMed Central

    Forman, Jason L.; Kent, Richard W.; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5–7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992–2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction. PMID:23169122

  7. Ecotoxicological and analytical assessment of hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and application to ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Saterbak, A.; Toy, R.J.; Wong, D.C.L.; McMain, B.J.; Williams, M.P.; Dorn, P.B.; Brzuzy, L.P.; Chai, E.Y.; Salanitro, J.P.

    1999-07-01

    Ecotoxicological assessments of contaminated soil aim to understand the effect of introduced chemicals on the soil flora and fauna. Ecotoxicity test methods were developed and conducted on hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and on adjacent uncontaminated control soils from eight field locations. Tests included 7-d, 14-d, and chronic survival tests and reproduction assays for the earthworm (Eisenia fetida) and seed germination, root length, and plant growth assays for corn, lettuce, mustard, and wheat. Species-specific responses were observed with no-observed effect concentrations (NOECs) ranging from <1 to 100% contaminated soil. The 14-d earthworm survival NOEC was equal to or greater than the reproduction NOEC values for numbers of cocoons and juveniles, which were similar to one another. Cocoon and juvenile production varied among the control soils. Germination and root length NOECs for mustard and lettuce were less than NOECs for corn and wheat. Root length NOECs were similar to or less than seed germination NOECs. Statistically significant correlations for earthworm survival and seed germination as a function of hydrocarbon measurements were found. The 14-d earthworm survival and the seed germination tests are recommended for use in the context of a risk-based framework for the ecological assessment of contaminated sites.

  8. Analytic Bounds on Causal Risk Differences in Directed Acyclic Graphs Involving Three Observed Binary Variables

    PubMed Central

    Kaufman, Sol; Kaufman, Jay S.; MacLehose, Richard F.

    2009-01-01

    We apply a linear programming approach which uses the causal risk difference (RDC) as the objective function and provides minimum and maximum values that RDC can achieve under any set of linear constraints on the potential response type distribution. We consider two scenarios involving binary exposure X, covariate Z and outcome Y. In the first, Z is not affected by X, and is a potential confounder of the causal effect of X on Y. In the second, Z is affected by X and intermediate in the causal pathway between X and Y. For each scenario we consider various linear constraints corresponding to the presence or absence of arcs in the associated directed acyclic graph (DAG), monotonicity assumptions, and presence or absence of additive-scale interactions. We also estimate Z-stratum-specific bounds when Z is a potential effect measure modifier and bounds for both controlled and natural direct effects when Z is affected by X. In the absence of any additional constraints deriving from background knowledge, the well-known bounds on RDc are duplicated: −Pr(Y≠X) ≤ RDC ≤ Pr(Y=X). These bounds have unit width, but can be narrowed by background knowledge-based assumptions. We provide and compare bounds and bound widths for various combinations of assumptions in the two scenarios and apply these bounds to real data from two studies. PMID:20161106

  9. The town of Cabar, Croatia, a high risk area for multiple sclerosis--analytic epidemiology of dietary factors.

    PubMed

    Perković, Olivio; Jurjević, Ante; Rudez, Josip; Antoncić, Igor; Bralić, Marina; Kapović, Miljenko

    2010-04-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is demyelization disease of central nervous system of unidentified causes. Analytic epidemiological research of 19 patients, clinically approved cases of MS and 25 controls, autochthonic inhabitants of town of Cabar, Croatia, the high-risk zone for the disease, was made. The research plan included case-control investigation--the "door to door" questionnaire--about nutrition habits. An odds ratio (OR) was calculated for all the factors which were more frequently found in the patients than in the controls, and vice versa. The variables that were connected with significant risk for MS in the town of Cabar included: alcohol consumption (p = 0.05), animal fats/dried meat products consumption (p = 0.007), nitrate salting (p = 0.03), strong spices (p = 0.007), mixed bread (p = 0.002), oat and oat products consumption (p = 0.0075). No connection was found with regular consumption of vegetables and fruit (p = 0.009), blue fresh fish (p = 0.028), other fresh fish (p = 0.03), freshwater fish (p = 0.002), canned fish (p = 0.004), dormouse meat (p = 0.007), air-dried meat products (p = 0.004) and using the water from water supply (p = 0.011). In the town of Cabar nutritional customs, primarily food rich in animal fats, alcohol-abuse, and oat consumption could have an influence on MS pathogenesis in genetically inclined individuals. PMID:21305732

  10. Analytical predictive Bayesian assessment of occupational injury risk: municipal solid waste collectors.

    PubMed

    Englehardt, James D; An, Huren; Fleming, Lora E; Bean, Judy A

    2003-10-01

    Unlike other waste streams, municipal solid waste (MSW) is collected manually, and MSW collection has recently been found to be among the highest-risk occupations in the United States. However, as for other occupational groups, actual total injury rates, including the great majority of injuries not compensated and those compensated by other insurance, are not known. In this article a predictive Bayesian method of assessing total injury rates from available information without computation is presented, and used to assess the actual numbers of musculoskeletal and dermal injuries requiring clinical care of MSW workers in Florida. Closed-form predictive Bayesian distributions that narrow progressively in response to information, representing both uncertainty and variability, are presented. Available information included workers' compensation (WC) data, worker population data, and safety records for one private and one public collection agency. Subjective input comprised epidemiological and medical judgment based on a review of 165 articles. The number of injuries was assessed at 3,146 annually in Florida, or 54 +/- 18 injuries per 100 workers per year with 95% confidence. Further, WC data indicate that the injury rate is 50% higher for garbage collectors specifically, indicating a rate of approximately 80 per 100 workers. Results, though subject to uncertainty in worker numbers and classification and reporting bias, agreed closely with a survey of 251 MSW collectors, of whom 75% reported being injured (and 70% reported illness) within the past 12 months. The approach is recommended for assessment of total injury rates and, where sufficient information exists, for the more difficult assessment of occupational disease rates. PMID:12969407

  11. The contribution of ergonomics to risk analysis in the design process: the case of a future control room.

    PubMed

    De la Garza, Cecilia; Labarthe, Jean-Paul; Graglia, Louis

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to highlight how ergonomics contributes to risk analysis and risk management in a design project for a new reactor, the French EPR (European Pressurized Reactor). An iterative ergonomics design process has been conducted over the last 10 years through a Human Factors Engineering program at the French energy company EDF. A parallel has been drawn between a risk management process and this ergonomics process based on International Organization for Standardization (ISO) publications such as ISO/IEC Guide 73, ISO Guide 51, etc. The contribution of ergonomics to risk analysis is illustrated by an example: the automatic diagnosis, which is a very important technical device for safety. Five main types of risk have been identified via ergonomic analyses during the different design stages. Counter-measures have been implemented and their efficacy tested within the scope of new campaigns to assess human factors. However, the management of risks in such a design project requires the participation both of the different design entities involved in the project and of other experts in aspects of risk management, such as human reliability. The organization of collaborative participation remains a challenge to be addressed. PMID:22316808

  12. Increased Cancer Mortality Risk for NASA's ISS Astronauts: The Contribution of Diagnostic Radiological Examinations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dodge, C.W.; Picco, C. E.; Gonzalez, S. M.; Johnston, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Shavers, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the radiation exposures and risks associated with long-term spaceflight on the International Space Station. NASA's risk model of cancer mortality is also presented.

  13. The Potential Contribution of Advanced Imaging Techniques to Developmental Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neuropathologic assessment provides critical data essential to developmental neurotoxicity risk assessment. There are a number of objectives in conducting a neuropathologic assessment to effectively support risk assessment. These include a comprehensive assessment of the adult an...

  14. Chemical leasing business models: a contribution to the effective risk management of chemical substances.

    PubMed

    Ohl, Cornelia; Moser, Frank

    2007-08-01

    Chemicals indisputably contribute greatly to the well-being of modern societies. Apart from such benefits, however, chemicals often pose serious threats to human health and the environment when improperly handled. Therefore, the European Commission has proposed a regulatory framework for the Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACH) that requires companies using chemicals to gather pertinent information on the properties of these substances. In this article, we argue that the crucial aspect of this information management may be the honesty and accuracy of the transfer of relevant knowledge from the producer of a chemical to its user. This may be particularly true if the application of potentially hazardous chemicals is not part of the user's core competency. Against this background, we maintain that the traditional sales concept provides no incentives for transferring this knowledge. The reason is that increased user knowledge of a chemical's properties may raise the efficiency of its application. That is, excessive and unnecessary usage will be eliminated. This, in turn, would lower the amount of chemicals sold and in competitive markets directly decrease profits of the producer. Through the introduction of chemical leasing business models, we attempt to present a strategy to overcome the incentive structure of classical sales models, which is counterproductive for the transfer of knowledge. By introducing two models (a Model A that differs least and a Model B that differs most from traditional sales concepts), we demonstrate that chemical leasing business models are capable of accomplishing the goal of Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals: to effectively manage the risk of chemicals by reducing the total quantity of chemicals used, either by a transfer of applicable knowledge from the lessor to the lessee (Model A) or by efficient application of the chemical by the lessor him/herself (Model B). PMID:17958507

  15. Mentoring Programs to Affect Delinquency and Associated Outcomes of Youth At-Risk: A Comprehensive Meta-Analytic Reviewi

    PubMed Central

    Tolan, Patrick H.; Henry, David B.; Schoeny, Michael S.; Lovegrove, Peter; Nichols, Emily

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To conduct a meta-analytic review of selective and indicated mentoring interventions for effects for youth at risk on delinquency and key associated outcomes (aggression, drug use, academic functioning). We also undertook the first systematic evaluation of intervention implementation features and organization and tested for effects of theorized key processes of mentor program effects. Methods Campbell Collaboration review inclusion criteria and procedures were used to search and evaluate the literature. Criteria included a sample defined as at-risk for delinquency due to individual behavior such as aggression or conduct problems or environmental characteristics such as residence in high-crime community. Studies were required to be random assignment or strong quasi-experimental design. Of 163 identified studies published 1970 - 2011, 46 met criteria for inclusion. Results Mean effects sizes were significant and positive for each outcome category (ranging form d =.11 for Academic Achievement to d = .29 for Aggression). Heterogeneity in effect sizes was noted for all four outcomes. Stronger effects resulted when mentor motivation was professional development but not by other implementation features. Significant improvements in effects were found when advocacy and emotional support mentoring processes were emphasized. Conclusions This popular approach has significant impact on delinquency and associated outcomes for youth at-risk for delinquency. While evidencing some features may relate to effects, the body of literature is remarkably lacking in details about specific program features and procedures. This persistent state of limited reporting seriously impedes understanding about how mentoring is beneficial and ability to maximize its utility. PMID:25386111

  16. Increased Waist-to-height Ratio May Contribute to Age-related Increase in Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Akhlaghi, Masoumeh; Kamali, Majid; Dastsouz, Farideh; Sadeghi, Fatemeh; Amanat, Sassan

    2016-01-01

    Background: The risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increases with age. The objective was to determine whether lifestyle and dietary behaviors and anthropometric measures, which are affected by these behaviors, contribute to the increase of CVD risk factors across age categories of 20–50-year-old. Methods: In a cross-sectional design, 437 adults aged 20–50-year-old were selected from households living in Shiraz. Risk factors of CVD, including body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), blood pressure, fasting blood glucose (FBG), serum triglycerides, total cholesterol, and low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C, respectively) as well as lifestyle behaviors (physical activity and smoking), dietary habits, and food intakes were assessed across the age categories of 20–29, 30–39, and 40–50 years. Linear regression was used to examine the contribution of different variables to the age-related increase of CVD risk factors. Results: All CVD risk factors, except for HDL-C, significantly increased across age categories. Older subjects had healthier dietary habits and food intakes, but they possessed nonsignificantly lower physical activity and higher smoking rate compared to younger adults. Adjusting for physical activity, smoking, and BMI did not change the significant positive association between age and CVD risk factors but adjusting for WHtR disappeared associations for blood pressure, triglycerides, and metabolic syndrome although significant associations remained for FBG and total and LDL-C. Conclusions: Age-related increase of CVD risk factors occurred independent of lifestyle habits. WHtR, but not BMI, may partially contribute to the age-related increase in CVD risk factors. PMID:27195100

  17. Relationships between Teachers and Preschoolers Who Are at Risk: Contribution of Children's Language Skills, Temperamentally Based Attributes, and Gender

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Justice, Laura M.; Cottone, Elizabeth A.; Mashburn, Andrew; Rimm-Kaufman, Sara E.

    2008-01-01

    Research Findings: The teacher-child relationship can provide an important support to young children who exhibit developmental risk. This research studied the contribution of children's language skills, temperamentally based attributes (shyness, anger), and gender to closeness and conflict in the teacher-child relationship for 133 preschoolers…

  18. Characteristics and Patterns of At-Risk Juveniles and Factors That Contribute to Violence Committed by or against Juveniles.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    School Intervention Report, 1999

    1999-01-01

    Research into the characteristics of at-risk juveniles that contribute to violence and the patterns of behavior and neighborhood characteristics and patterns that are associated with youth violence or victimization are reviewed. The results of the studies reviewed cannot be generalized to the total population of juveniles, but the findings of…

  19. The Contribution of Male and Female Partners’ Substance Use to Sexual Risks and STDs Among African American HIV Serodiscordant Couples

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Growing evidence suggests that drug and alcohol use are fueling the heterosexual transmission of HIV among African Americans. This study aims to examine the relative contribution of drug and alcohol use of male and female partners to risks of heterosexual transmission of HIV among 535 African American HIV serodiscordant couples (N = 1,070 participants) who participated in an HIV prevention trial. Associations found between use of drugs and alcohol by one or both partners and sexual risk indicators varied by type of substance and whether male or female partner or both partners reported use. The findings suggest multiple ways in which substance use of male and female partners may be contributing to the heterosexual transmission of HIV and other STDs among African Americans and underscore the need for HIV prevention strategies to address dyadic patterns of substance use that lead to sexual risks. PMID:20499153

  20. Contribution of Company Affiliation and Social Contacts to Risk Estimates of Between-Farm Transmission of Avian Influenza

    PubMed Central

    Leibler, Jessica H.; Carone, Marco; Silbergeld, Ellen K.

    2010-01-01

    Background Models of between-farm transmission of pathogens have identified service vehicles and social groups as risk factors mediating the spread of infection. Because of high levels of economic organization in much of the poultry industry, we examined the importance of company affiliation, as distinct from social contacts, in a model of the potential spread of avian influenza among broiler poultry farms in a poultry-dense region in the United States. The contribution of company affiliation to risk of between-farm disease transmission has not been previously studied. Methodology/Principal Findings We obtained data on the nature and frequency of business and social contacts through a national survey of broiler poultry growers in the United States. Daily rates of contact were estimated using Monte Carlo analysis. Stochastic modeling techniques were used to estimate the exposure risk posed by a single infectious farm to other farms in the region and relative risk of exposure for farms under different scenarios. The mean daily rate of vehicular contact was 0.82 vehicles/day. The magnitude of exposure risk ranged from <1% to 25% under varying parameters. Risk of between-farm transmission was largely driven by company affiliation, with farms in the same company group as the index farm facing as much as a 5-fold increase in risk compared to farms contracted with different companies. Employment of part-time workers contributed to significant increases in risk in most scenarios, notably for farms who hired day-laborers. Social visits were significantly less important in determining risk. Conclusions/Significance Biosecurity interventions should be based on information on industry structure and company affiliation, and include part-time workers as potentially unrecognized sources of viral transmission. Modeling efforts to understand pathogen transmission in the context of industrial food animal production should consider company affiliation in addition to geospatial

  1. SMAD7 loci contribute to risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and clinicopathologic development among Chinese Han population

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Chenying; Song, Jingjing; Chen, Weiqian; Chen, Minjiang; Fan, Xiaoxi; Cheng, Xingyao; Lan, Xilin; Li, Jie

    2016-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified three loci at 18q21 (rs4939827, rs7240004, and rs7229639), which maps to SMAD7 loci, were associated with risk of diseases of the digestive system. However, their associations with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remain unknown. A case-control study was conducted to assess genetic associations with HCC risk and clinicopathologic development among Chinese Han population. Three SNPs were genotyped among 1,000 HCC cases and 1,000 controls using Sequenom Mass-ARRAY technology. We observed statistically significant associations for the three SMAD7 loci and HCC risk. Each copy of minor allele was associated with a 1.24–1.36 fold increased risk of HCC. We also found that significant differences were observed between rs4939827 and clinical TNM stage and vascular invasion, as well as rs7240004 and vascular invasion. We also established a genetic risk score (GRS) by summing the risk alleles. The GRS was significantly associated with increased risk of HCC and vascular invasion. Our data revealed the SMAD7 loci is associated with HCC susceptibility and its clinicopathologic development. PMID:26989026

  2. The contribution of neighbours to an individual's risk of typhoid outcome.

    PubMed

    Chao, D L; Park, J K; Marks, F; Ochiai, R L; Longini, I M; Halloran, M E

    2015-12-01

    An individual's risk of infection from an infectious agent can depend on both the individual's own risk and protective factors and those of individuals in the same community. We hypothesize that an individual's exposure to an infectious agent is associated with the risks of infection of those living nearby, whether their risks are modified by pharmaceutical interventions or by other factors, because of the potential for transmission from them. For example, unvaccinated individuals living in a highly vaccinated community can benefit from indirect protection, or living near more children in a typhoid-endemic region (where children are at highest risk) might result in more exposure to typhoid. We tested this hypothesis using data from a cluster-randomized typhoid vaccine trial. We first estimated each individual's relative risk of confirmed typhoid outcome using their vaccination status and age. We defined a new covariate, potential exposure, to be the sum of the relative risks of all who live within 100 m of each person. We found that potential exposure was significantly associated with an individual's typhoid outcome, and adjusting for potential exposure affected estimates of vaccine efficacy. We suggest that it is useful and feasible to adjust for spatially heterogeneous distributions of individual-level risk factors, but further work is required to develop and test such approaches. PMID:25936682

  3. The contributions of breast density and common genetic variation to breast cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Vachon, Celine M; Pankratz, V Shane; Scott, Christopher G; Haeberle, Lothar; Ziv, Elad; Jensen, Matthew R; Brandt, Kathleen R; Whaley, Dana H; Olson, Janet E; Heusinger, Katharina; Hack, Carolin C; Jud, Sebastian M; Beckmann, Matthias W; Schulz-Wendtland, Ruediger; Tice, Jeffrey A; Norman, Aaron D; Cunningham, Julie M; Purrington, Kristen S; Easton, Douglas F; Sellers, Thomas A; Kerlikowske, Karla; Fasching, Peter A; Couch, Fergus J

    2015-05-01

    We evaluated whether a 76-locus polygenic risk score (PRS) and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density were independent risk factors within three studies (1643 case patients, 2397 control patients) using logistic regression models. We incorporated the PRS odds ratio (OR) into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk-prediction model while accounting for its attributable risk and compared five-year absolute risk predictions between models using area under the curve (AUC) statistics. All statistical tests were two-sided. BI-RADS density and PRS were independent risk factors across all three studies (P interaction = .23). Relative to those with scattered fibroglandular densities and average PRS (2(nd) quartile), women with extreme density and highest quartile PRS had 2.7-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.74 to 4.12) increased risk, while those with low density and PRS had reduced risk (OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.51). PRS added independent information (P < .001) to the BCSC model and improved discriminatory accuracy from AUC = 0.66 to AUC = 0.69. Although the BCSC-PRS model was well calibrated in case-control data, independent cohort data are needed to test calibration in the general population. PMID:25745020

  4. Trust, trustworthiness, and trust propensity: a meta-analytic test of their unique relationships with risk taking and job performance.

    PubMed

    Colquitt, Jason A; Scott, Brent A; LePine, Jeffery A

    2007-07-01

    The trust literature distinguishes trustworthiness (the ability, benevolence, and integrity of a trustee) and trust propensity (a dispositional willingness to rely on others) from trust (the intention to accept vulnerability to a trustee based on positive expectations of his or her actions). Although this distinction has clarified some confusion in the literature, it remains unclear (a) which trust antecedents have the strongest relationships with trust and (b) whether trust fully mediates the effects of trustworthiness and trust propensity on behavioral outcomes. Our meta-analysis of 132 independent samples summarized the relationships between the trust variables and both risk taking and job performance (task performance, citizenship behavior, counterproductive behavior). Meta-analytic structural equation modeling supported a partial mediation model wherein trustworthiness and trust propensity explained incremental variance in the behavioral outcomes when trust was controlled. Further analyses revealed that the trustworthiness dimensions also predicted affective commitment, which had unique relationships with the outcomes when controlling for trust. These results generalized across different types of trust measures (i.e., positive expectations measures, willingness-to-be-vulnerable measures, and direct measures) and different trust referents (i.e., leaders, coworkers). PMID:17638454

  5. Analytical model of sea level elevation during a storm: Support for coastal flood risk assessment associated with cyclone passage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maia, Natan Zambroni; Calliari, Lauro Julio; Nicolodi, João Luiz

    2016-08-01

    Sea level oscillations are a result of continuous astronomic, oceanographic, and atmospheric interactions on different time and intensity scales. Thus, the collective action of forcing factors such as tide, wind, atmospheric pressure, and wave action may lead to elevated sea levels during cyclone events over the continental shelf, abruptly impacting adjacent coasts. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential risks of sea level rise and coastal flooding associated with the passage of cyclones in southern Brazil. An analytical model was developed based on extreme storm events from 1997 to 2008. The model identifies the impact of each forcing factor during temporary sea level rise. Through the development of a digital terrain model, it was possible to identify the areas most vulnerable to flooding by superimposing the terrain model onto calculated sea levels. During storm events, sea level elevations ranged from 2 to 5 m and show wind as the major forcing factor, followed by swells waves, astronomical tide and finally atmospheric pressure.

  6. CYP1A2 rs762551 polymorphism contributes to risk of lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Ma, Zheng; Guo, Wei; Gong, Taiqian; Niu, Hui-Jun; Wang, Ru-Wen; Jiang, Yao-Guang

    2014-03-01

    Previous studies proposed that CYP1A2 rs762551 polymorphism might be associated with risk of lung cancer by influencing the function of CYP1A2. However, previous studies on the association between CYP1A2 rs762551 polymorphism and risk of lung cancer reported inconsistent findings. We performed a meta-analysis of the published case-control studies to assess the association between CYP1A2 rs762551 polymorphism and risk of lung cancer. PubMed and Embase were searched to identify relevant studies on the association between CYP1A2 rs762551 polymorphism and risk of lung cancer, and seven studies with a total of 3,320 subjects were finally included into the meta-analysis. The pooled odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated to evaluate the association. Meta-analysis of total studies showed that CYP1A2 rs762551 polymorphism contributed to risk of lung cancer under all four genetic models (C versus A: OR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.13 to 1.40, P < 0.001; CC versus AA: OR = 1.61, 95%CI 1.28 to 2.04, P < 0.001; CC versus AA/AC: OR = 1.52, 95%CI 1.11 to 2.09, P = 0.009; CC/AC versus AA: OR = 1.28, 95%CI 1.10 to 1.48, P = 0.001). Subgroup analysis based on ethnicity further suggested that CYP1A2 rs762551 polymorphism was associated with risk of lung cancer in Caucasians. These results from the meta-analysis suggest that CYP1A2 rs762551 polymorphism contributes to risk of lung cancer. PMID:24293373

  7. The contributions of sleep-related risk factors to diurnal car accidents.

    PubMed

    Lucidi, Fabio; Mallia, Luca; Violani, Cristiano; Giustiniani, Gabriele; Persia, Luca

    2013-03-01

    This study was intended to estimate the presence and number of individual sleep-related risk factors in a sample of diurnal car accidents and to analyze the extent to which these risk factors tended to be more represented in diurnal accidents involving only one vehicle, involving young drivers or occurring on non-urban roads. Two hundred fifty-three drivers involved in diurnal accidents were interviewed immediately after the accidents to assess their sleepiness-related personal conditions and the circumstances prior to the accident (i.e., individual sleep-related risk factors), such as poor sleep, changes in habitual sleeping patterns, prolonged wakefulness, self-reported acute sleepiness and daytime sleepiness, night-shift jobs and insomnia. A total of 12.3% of the drivers were classified as having at least one of the seven risk factors assessed in the study, supporting the general notion that drivers' sleepiness conditions are crucial, even in diurnal driving circumstances in which they are less likely to depend on chrono-biological processes. Furthermore, consistent with the guiding hypotheses, specific sleep-related risk factors were more evident in single (vs. multiple) car accidents, among young drivers and in car accidents occurring on non-urban roads. In summary, sleep-related risk factors seemed to have a negative impact on drivers' safety in circumstances of diurnal driving, especially when the accidents involved young individuals and occurred on non-urban roads. PMID:23246705

  8. Comparative assessment of transport risks--how it can contribute to health impact assessment of transport policies.

    PubMed Central

    Kjellstrom, Tord; van Kerkhoff, Lorrae; Bammer, Gabriele; McMichael, Tony

    2003-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) and comparative risk assessment (CRA) are important tools with which governments and communities can compare and integrate different sources of information about various health impacts into a single framework for policy-makers and planners. Both tools have strengths that may be combined usefully when conducting comprehensive assessments of decisions that affect complex health issues, such as the health risks and impacts of transport policy and planning activities. As yet, however, HIA and CRA have not been applied widely to the area of transport. We draw on the limited experience of the application of these tools in the context of road transport to explore how comparative assessment of transport risks can contribute to HIA of transport policies. PMID:12894331

  9. Contribution of a Non-classical HLA Gene, HLA-DOA, to the Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis.

    PubMed

    Okada, Yukinori; Suzuki, Akari; Ikari, Katsunori; Terao, Chikashi; Kochi, Yuta; Ohmura, Koichiro; Higasa, Koichiro; Akiyama, Masato; Ashikawa, Kyota; Kanai, Masahiro; Hirata, Jun; Suita, Naomasa; Teo, Yik-Ying; Xu, Huji; Bae, Sang-Cheol; Takahashi, Atsushi; Momozawa, Yukihide; Matsuda, Koichi; Momohara, Shigeki; Taniguchi, Atsuo; Yamada, Ryo; Mimori, Tsuneyo; Kubo, Michiaki; Brown, Matthew A; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Matsuda, Fumihiko; Yamanaka, Hisashi; Kamatani, Yoichiro; Yamamoto, Kazuhiko

    2016-08-01

    Despite the progress in human leukocyte antigen (HLA) causal variant mapping, independent localization of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) risk from classical HLA genes is challenging. Here, we conducted a large-scale MHC fine-mapping analysis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a Japanese population (6,244 RA cases and 23,731 controls) population by using HLA imputation, followed by a multi-ethnic validation study including east Asian and European populations (n = 7,097 and 23,149, respectively). Our study identified an independent risk of a synonymous mutation at HLA-DOA, a non-classical HLA gene, on anti-citrullinated protein autoantibody (ACPA)-positive RA risk (p = 1.4 × 10(-9)), which demonstrated a cis-expression quantitative trait loci (cis-eQTL) effect on HLA-DOA expression. Trans-ethnic comparison revealed different linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns in HLA-DOA and HLA-DRB1, explaining the observed HLA-DOA variant risk heterogeneity among ethnicities, which was most evident in the Japanese population. Although previous HLA fine-mapping studies have identified amino acid polymorphisms of the classical HLA genes as driving genetic susceptibility to disease, our study additionally identifies the dosage contribution of a non-classical HLA gene to disease etiology. Our study contributes to the understanding of HLA immunology in human diseases and suggests the value of incorporating additional ancestry in MHC fine-mapping. PMID:27486778

  10. Prevalence of 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and Associated Risks in Canadian Adults: The Contribution of Cardiometabolic Risk Assessment Introduction

    PubMed Central

    Setayeshgar, Solmaz; Whiting, Susan J.

    2013-01-01

    Background. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in adult Canadians. Cardiometabolic risk (CMR) derived from 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases and metabolic syndrome (MetS) needs to be evaluated in Canadian adults. Objective. To determine CMR among Canadian adults by sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. Subjects and Methods. Data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS), Cycle 1, 2007–2009, was used. Framingham Risk Score (FRS) was implemented to predict 10-year risk of CVD, and metabolic syndrome was identified using the most recent criteria. The 10-year risk of CVD was multiplied by 1.5 in individuals with MetS to obtain CMR. Data were weighted and bootstrapped to be able to generalize the results nationally. Results and Conclusion. CMR gave more accurate estimation of 10-year risk of CVD in Canadian adults from 30 to 74 years than using only FRS. The 10-year risk of CVD in Canadian adults significantly increased when CMR was taken into account from 8.10% to 9.86%. The CVD risk increased by increase in age, decrease in education, and decrease in physical activity and in smokers. Canadians with medium risk of CVD consumed significantly less fruit and vegetable juice compared to Canadians with low risk. No other dietary differences were found. PMID:23738053

  11. Prevalence of 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases and associated risks in canadian adults: the contribution of cardiometabolic risk assessment introduction.

    PubMed

    Setayeshgar, Solmaz; Whiting, Susan J; Vatanparast, Hassanali

    2013-01-01

    Background. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in adult Canadians. Cardiometabolic risk (CMR) derived from 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases and metabolic syndrome (MetS) needs to be evaluated in Canadian adults. Objective. To determine CMR among Canadian adults by sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. Subjects and Methods. Data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS), Cycle 1, 2007-2009, was used. Framingham Risk Score (FRS) was implemented to predict 10-year risk of CVD, and metabolic syndrome was identified using the most recent criteria. The 10-year risk of CVD was multiplied by 1.5 in individuals with MetS to obtain CMR. Data were weighted and bootstrapped to be able to generalize the results nationally. Results and Conclusion. CMR gave more accurate estimation of 10-year risk of CVD in Canadian adults from 30 to 74 years than using only FRS. The 10-year risk of CVD in Canadian adults significantly increased when CMR was taken into account from 8.10% to 9.86%. The CVD risk increased by increase in age, decrease in education, and decrease in physical activity and in smokers. Canadians with medium risk of CVD consumed significantly less fruit and vegetable juice compared to Canadians with low risk. No other dietary differences were found. PMID:23738053

  12. Interleukin 1 Polymorphisms Contribute to Intervertebral Disc Degeneration Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Changfeng; Xu, Feng; Chen, Yong; Wang, Zhenyu; Liu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    Objective We performed a meta-analysis to assess association between interleukin 1 (IL-1) polymorphisms and the risk of Intervertebral Disc Degeneration (IDD). Background A series of studies have investigated the association between common single nucleotide polymorphisms in IL-1 and IDD risk; however, the overall results are inconclusive. Methods Two independent investigators conducted a systematic search for relevant available studies. Allele frequencies were extracted from each study. The association between the IL-1α (+889C/T) or IL-1β (+3954C/T) polymorphism and IDD risk was measured by odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results Five and six studies, respectively, were ultimately included in the meta-analysis for the IL-1α (+889C/T) and IL-1β (+3954C/T) polymorphism. The combined results showed that the IL-1α (+889C/T) polymorphism was significantly associated with increased susceptibility to IDD, particularly in Caucasians (TT versus CC: OR = 2.95, 95% CI: 1.45, 6.04; Pheterogeneity = 0.82; TT versus CC/CT: OR = 2.29, 95% CI: 1.18, 4.47; Pheterogeneity = 0.20). In contrast, the IL-1β (+3954C/T) polymorphism showed a trend towards increased risk in Caucasians but no association in Asians. Conclusion This meta-analysis suggested that the IL-1α (+889C/T) polymorphism is significantly associated with risk of IDD, especially in Caucasian populations. PMID:27253397

  13. [Assessment of risk of burden in construction: improvement interventions and contribution of the competent physician].

    PubMed

    Martinelli, R; Tarquini, M

    2012-01-01

    Three construction companies in three years have changed the operating modes, making use of innovative carpentry, with little amount of equipment, improved usability of the site, reduced cleaning time, less manual handling and reduced risk of accidents. The Competent Doctor has participated in the review of the risk assessment of manual handling: data has been acquired on musculoskeletal disorders to compare, in terms of this innovation, the average trend and changes, with encouraging results in terms of incidence of musculoskeletal disorders, absenteeism due to illness by these causes, new cases of lumbar diseases. It remains difficult in building to assess manual handling risk, but the collaboration between the Employer, Prevention and Protection Service and Competent Doctor, thanks to the greater attention that the design subject to these issues, suggests improvements and further steps to extend to all phases of operation of building. PMID:23405597

  14. Using Positive Youth Development to Predict Contribution and Risk Behaviors in Early Adolescence: Findings from the First Two Waves of the 4-H Study of Positive Youth Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jelicic, Helena; Bobek, Deborah L.; Phelps, Erin; Lerner, Richard M.; Lerner, Jacqueline V.

    2007-01-01

    Theories of positive youth development (PYD) regard such development as bases of both community contributions and lessened likelihood of risk/problem behaviors. Using data from the 4-H Study of PYD, we tested these expectations by examining if PYD in Grade 5 predicted both youth contributions and risk behaviors and depression in Grade 6. Results…

  15. Contribution of molecular analyses to the estimation of the risk of congenital myotonic dystrophy.

    PubMed Central

    Cobo, A M; Poza, J J; Martorell, L; López de Munain, A; Emparanza, J I; Baiget, M

    1995-01-01

    A molecular analysis of the maternal and child CTG repeat size and intergenerational amplification was performed in order to estimate the risk of having a child with congenital myotonic dystrophy (CMD). In a study of 124 affected mother-child pairs (42 mother-CMD and 82 mother-non-CMD) the mean maternal CTG allele in CMD cases was three times higher (700 repeats) than in non-CMD cases (236 repeats). When the maternal allele was in the 50-300 repeats range, 90% of children were non-CMD. In contrast, when the maternal allele was greater than 300 repeats, 59% inherited the congenital form. Furthermore, the risk of having a CMD child is also related to the intergenerational amplification, which was significantly greater in the mother-CMD pairs than in the mother-non-CMD pairs. Although the risk of giving birth to a CMD child always exists for affected mothers, our data show that such a risk is considerably higher if the maternal allele is greater than 300 repeats. Images PMID:7760317

  16. The Contribution of Fetal Drug Exposure to Temperament: Potential Teratogenic Effects on Neuropsychiatric Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weiss, Sandra J.; St. Jonn-Seed, Mary; Harris-Muchell, Carolyn

    2007-01-01

    Background: Preliminary evidence indicates that fetal drug exposure may be associated with alterations in temperament. However, studies often do not dissociate the potential effects of drug exposure from other perinatal or environmental factors that could influence temperament phenotypes. Methods: High risk children (n = 120) were followed from…

  17. Investigation of Factors Contributing to Diabetes Risk in American Indian/Alaska Native Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Islam-Zwart, Kayleen; Cawston, Alvina

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the relationship between family history, sedentary behaviors, and childhood risk for type 2 diabetes. Participants were 480 students attending schools on or near an American Indian reservation. Data were collected through survey and BMI measurement. Children who frequently watched television or played video games did not…

  18. Genetic variants in IRS2 may contribute to obesity and diabetes familial risk in Hispanic children

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    IRS2 is a key regulator of glucose homeostasis and an obesity candidate gene, however, its role in children’s susceptibility to obesity and diabetes risk is unknown. Our specific aim was to identify genetic variants explaining a statistically significant quantitative trait locus on chromosome 13q fo...

  19. Opioids Contribute to Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis of 8 Cohort Studies

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Feihu; Zhu, Yanhong; Zhang, Xiguang; Zhang, Chuanlin; Wang, Shuangneng; Zhang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the association between chronic opioid use for non-cancer pain and fracture risk by conducting a meta-analysis of cohort studies. Methods Cohort studies were identified by searching PubMed and EMBASE from their inception to July 2014. A fracture was considered an endpoint. The information was extracted by two authors independently. When the heterogeneity was significant, a random-effects model was used to calculate the overall pooled risk estimates. Results Eight cohort studies were included in the final meta-analysis. On the basis of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS), six studies were considered to be of high quality. The overall combined relative risk for the use of opioids and fractures was 1.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.51-2.34). A subgroup analysis revealed the sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed. Conclusions This meta-analysis of cohort studies demonstrates that opioids significantly increase the risk of fractures. PMID:26030421

  20. Risk and Protective Factors Contributing to the Longitudinal Psychosocial Well-Being of Adopted Foster Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simmel, Cassandra

    2007-01-01

    This study is based on a statewide longitudinal sample of adopted foster youth and explores the relationship between early pre-adoption risk factors and subsequent elevated levels of psychopathology symptomatology. One central goal of the study was to evaluate the impact of preadoption stressors (prenatal drug/nicotine exposure, early…

  1. Platelet Count Mediates the Contribution of a Genetic Variant in LRRC16A to ARDS Risk

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Yongyue; Wang, Zhaoxi; Su, Li; Chen, Feng; Tejera, Paula; Bajwa, Ednan K.; Wurfel, Mark M.; Lin, Xihong

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Platelets are believed to be critical in pulmonary-origin ARDS as mediators of endothelial damage through their interactions with fibrinogen and multiple signal transduction pathways. A prior meta-analysis identified five loci for platelet count (PLT): BAD, LRRC16A, CD36, JMJD1C, and SLMO2. This study aims to validate the quantitative trait loci (QTLs) of PLT within BAD, LRRC16A, CD36, JMJD1C, and SLMO2 among critically ill patients and to investigate the associations of these QTLs with ARDS risk that may be mediated through PLT. METHODS: ARDS cases and at-risk control subjects were recruited from the intensive care unit of the Massachusetts General Hospital. Exome-wide genotyping data of 629 ARDS cases and 1,026 at-risk control subjects and genome-wide gene expression profiles of 18 at-risk control subjects were generated for analysis. RESULTS: Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs7766874 within LRRC16A was a significant locus for PLT among at-risk control subjects (β = −13.00; 95% CI, −23.22 to −2.77; P = .013). This association was validated using LRRC16A gene expression data from at-risk control subjects (β = 77.03 per 1 SD increase of log2-transformed expression; 95% CI, 27.26-126.80; P = .005). Further, rs7766874 was associated with ARDS risk conditioned on PLT (OR = 0.68; 95% CI, 0.51-0.90; P = .007), interacting with PLT (OR = 1.15 per effect allele per 100 × 103/μL of PLT; 95% CI, 1.03-1.30; P = .015), and mediated through PLT (indirect OR = 1.045; 95% CI, 1.007-1.085; P = .021). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the role of LRRC16A in platelet formation and suggest the importance of LRRC16A in ARDS pathophysiology by interacting with, and being mediated through, platelets. PMID:25254322

  2. Risk and Protective Factors Contributing to Depressive Symptoms in Vietnamese American College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Han, Meekyung; Lee, Mary

    2011-01-01

    With the demographic shifts the United States faces, understanding the contributing factors to mental well-being among minority college students is crucial. This study examines the roles of parental and peer attachment, intergenerational conflict, and perceived racial discrimination on depressive symptoms while also analyzing the mediational role…

  3. Inability to activate Rac1-dependent forgetting contributes to behavioral inflexibility in mutants of multiple autism-risk genes.

    PubMed

    Dong, Tao; He, Jing; Wang, Shiqing; Wang, Lianzhang; Cheng, Yuqi; Zhong, Yi

    2016-07-01

    The etiology of autism is so complicated because it involves the effects of variants of several hundred risk genes along with the contribution of environmental factors. Therefore, it has been challenging to identify the causal paths that lead to the core autistic symptoms such as social deficit, repetitive behaviors, and behavioral inflexibility. As an alternative approach, extensive efforts have been devoted to identifying the convergence of the targets and functions of the autism-risk genes to facilitate mapping out causal paths. In this study, we used a reversal-learning task to measure behavioral flexibility in Drosophila and determined the effects of loss-of-function mutations in multiple autism-risk gene homologs in flies. Mutations of five autism-risk genes with diversified molecular functions all led to a similar phenotype of behavioral inflexibility indicated by impaired reversal-learning. These reversal-learning defects resulted from the inability to forget or rather, specifically, to activate Rac1 (Ras-related C3 botulinum toxin substrate 1)-dependent forgetting. Thus, behavior-evoked activation of Rac1-dependent forgetting has a converging function for autism-risk genes. PMID:27335463

  4. Selective contribution of diabetes and other cardiovascular risk factors to cardiac autonomic dysfunction in the general population.

    PubMed

    Ziegler, D; Zentai, C; Perz, S; Rathmann, W; Haastert, B; Meisinger, C; Löwel, H

    2006-04-01

    Both cardiac autonomic dysfunction adn cardiovascular risk factors are related to and excess risk of mortality. We sought to determine whether the major cardiovascular risk factors are associated with diminished heart rate variability (HRV), prolonged QTc interval, or increased QT dispersion (QTD). Male (n = 1030) and female (n = 957) subjects, aged 55-74 years, who participated in the population-based MONICA Augsburg survey 1989/90 were assessed for the presence of cardiovascular risk factors such as diabetes, hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia, smoking, and low physical activity. Lowest quartiles for time domain indexes of HRV (SD of R-R intervals [SDNN], max-min difference), QTc > 440 ms, and QTD > 60 ms determined from 12-lead resting ECG were used as cutpoints. In men, after adjustment for age and alcohol consumption, significant independent determinants for the lowest quartiles of SDNN were diabetes, obesity, and smoking. Independent contributors to prolonged QTc were hypertension, obesity, smoking, and low physical activity, whereas for increased QTD it was only hypertension. In women, diabetes was the only contributor to low SDNN, and hypertension was the only determinant of prolonged QTc. In conclusion, diabetes is the primary determinant of reduced HRV in the general population, while hypertension is the primary contributor to prolonged QTc in both sexes. However, obesity and smoking contribute to autonomic dysfunction in men but not women. Thus, a selectivity and sex-related differences exist among the various cardiovascular risk factors as to their influence on autonomic dysfunction. PMID:16710813

  5. Exposure to Pro-Smoking Media in College Students: Does Type of Media Channel Differentially Contribute to Smoking Risk?

    PubMed Central

    Shadel, William G.; Martino, Steven C.; Setodji, Claude; Scharf, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    Background There is almost no data on whether the different channels through which pro-smoking media appears (i.e., point-of-sale advertising, movie smoking) differently influences smoking. Purpose This study used ecological momentary assessment to examine whether differences in smoking risk were observed for exposures to different pro-smoking media channels. Methods College students (n=134) carried smartphones for 21 days, recording their exposures to pro-smoking media and the media channels for that exposure and responding to three randomly-issued control prompts per day. Participants answered questions about their future smoking risk after each pro-smoking media exposure and random prompt. Results Participants had elevated future smoking risk following exposure to pro-smoking media at point-of-sale (p < 0.001); smoking risk at times of exposure to smoking in movies did not differ from risk measured during control prompts (p = 0.78). Conclusions There is merit to examining the relative contribution of different pro-smoking media channels to smoking behavior. PMID:23536120

  6. Genetic and Environmental Risk for Chronic Pain and the Contribution of Risk Variants for Major Depressive Disorder: A Family-Based Mixed-Model Analysis

    PubMed Central

    McIntosh, Andrew M.; Zeng, Yanni; Davies, Gail; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Hayward, Caroline; Haley, Chris S.; Porteous, David J.; Deary, Ian J.; Smith, Daniel J.; Hinds, David A.; Jones, Amy V.; Scollen, Serena; Meng, Weihua; Hocking, Lynne J.

    2016-01-01

    Background Chronic pain is highly prevalent and a significant source of disability, yet its genetic and environmental risk factors are poorly understood. Its relationship with major depressive disorder (MDD) is of particular importance. We sought to test the contribution of genetic factors and shared and unique environment to risk of chronic pain and its correlation with MDD in Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS). We then sought to replicate any significant findings in the United Kingdom Biobank study. Methods and Findings Using family-based mixed-model analyses, we examined the contribution of genetics and shared family environment to chronic pain by spouse, sibling, and household relationships. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS (n = 23,960), a family- and population-based study of individuals recruited from the Scottish population through their general practitioners. We then examined and partitioned the correlation between chronic pain and MDD and estimated the contribution of genetic factors and shared environment in GS:SFHS. Finally, we used data from two independent genome-wide association studies to test whether chronic pain has a polygenic architecture and examine whether genomic risk of psychiatric disorder predicted chronic pain and whether genomic risk of chronic pain predicted MDD. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS and repeated in UK Biobank, a study of 500,000 from the UK population, of whom 112,151 had genotyping and phenotypic data. Chronic pain is a moderately heritable trait (heritability = 38.4%, 95% CI 33.6% to 43.9%) that is significantly concordant in spouses (variance explained 18.7%, 95% CI 9.5% to 25.1%). Chronic pain is positively correlated with depression (ρ = 0.13, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.15, p = 2.72x10-68) and shows a tendency to cluster within families for genetic reasons (genetic correlation = 0.51, 95%CI 0.40 to 0.62, p = 8.24x10-19). Polygenic risk profiles for pain, generated using independent GWAS

  7. How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lumpkins, S. B.; Mindock, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP’s goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.

  8. How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lumpkins, Sarah; Mindock, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP's goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.

  9. Contribution of Shellfish Consumption to Lower Mercury Health Risk for Residents in Northern Jiaozhou Bay, China

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Fish and marine mammal consumption are an important pathway for human exposure to mercury. The low mercury content in shellfish poses a low mercury health risk to people who consume shellfish. The objectives of this study are to detect mercury concentrations in different species of shellfish and to calculate the mercury health risk from shellfish consumption among traditional residents near northern Jiaozhou Bay. A total of 356 shellfish samples, which comprised 7 species from 5 different places in northern Jiaozhou Bay, were collected from April to June in 2012. The average mercury content in the collected shellfish ranged from 0.024 mg·kg−1 to 0.452 mg·kg−1. A total of 44 shellfish samples (12.36%) had mercury levels exceeding the national pollution-free aquatic products limit (0.3 mg·kg−1). Generally, the viscus had the highest mercury content among all parts of the shellfish. A positive correlation between mercury content and total weight/edible part weight was found in most species of the collected shellfish. The results showed that shellfish consumption resulted in the lower risk of mercury exposure to residents based on the calculation of daily intake (DI) and target hazard quotient (THQ). PMID:26101470

  10. Common UCP2 variants contribute to serum urate concentrations and the risk of hyperuricemia

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Luyu; Dong, Zheng; zhou, Jingru; Ma, Yanyun; Pu, Weilin; Zhao, Dongbao; He, Hongjun; Ji, Hengdong; Yang, Yajun; Wang, Xiaofeng; Xu, Xia; Pang, Yafei; Zou, Hejian; Jin, Li; Yang, Chengde; Wang, Jiucun

    2016-01-01

    Elevated serum urate, which is regulated at multiple levels including genetic variants, is a risk factor for gout and other metabolic diseases. This study aimed to investigate the association between UCP2 variants and serum urate as well as hyperuricemia in a Chinese population. In total, 4332 individuals were genotyped for two common UCP2 variants, −866G/A and Ala55Val. These loci were not associated either serum urate level or with a risk of hyperuricemia in the total group of subjects. However, in females, −866G/A and Ala55Val were associated with a lower serum urate (P = 0.006 and 0.014, seperately) and played a protective role against hyperuricemia (OR = 0.80, P = 0.018; OR = 0.79, P = 0.016). These associations were not observed in the males. After further stratification, the two loci were associated with serum urate in overweight, but not underweight females. The haplotype A-T (−866G/A-Ala55Val) was a protective factor for hyperuricemia in the female subgroup (OR = 0.80, P = 0.017). This present study identified a novel gene, UCP2, that influences the serum urate concentration and the risk of hyperuricemia, and the degree of association varies with gender and BMI levels. PMID:27273589

  11. Genetic variants of lncRNA HOTAIR contribute to the risk of osteosarcoma

    PubMed Central

    Fei, Zhongting; Zhao, Jiali; Liang, Yong; Pan, Wei; Liu, Xingxiang; Zheng, Donghui

    2016-01-01

    Osteosarcoma (OS) is the most common primary malignant bone tumor in adolescents and young adults. However, the essential mechanisms underlying osteosarcomagenesis remain obscure. The HOTAIR, a well-known long noncoding RNA (lncRNA), is involved in pathogenesis and progress of multiple tumors. To reveal the potential role of lncRNA HOTAIR in OS carcinogenesis, we conducted a two-stage, case-control study among Chinese population with 900 OS cases and 900 controls to evaluated associations of its genetic variants with OS risk. We found that C allele of rs7958904 was associated with a significantly decreased OS risk when compared with G allele (OR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.67-0.90; P = 6.77×10-4). Functional analyses on HOTAIR Expression showed that the expression level of HOTAIR in OS tissues was significantly higher than that in corresponding normal tissues, and subjects with the rs7958904 CC genotype had significantly lower HOTAIR RNA levels than those of other genotypes. This should be the first study to examine the association between HOTAIR variants and OS risk. PMID:26967389

  12. The Contribution of Equitation Science to Minimising Horse-Related Risks to Humans

    PubMed Central

    Starling, Melissa; McLean, Andrew; McGreevy, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Simple Summary Equitation science describes an approach to horse training and riding that focuses on embracing the cognitive abilities of horses, their natural behaviour, and how human riders can use signalling and rewards to best effect. This approach is concerned with both horse welfare and rider safety, and this review discusses how equitation science can minimise risk to humans around horses and enhance horse welfare. Abstract Equitation science is an evidence-based approach to horse training and riding that focuses on a thorough understanding of both equine ethology and learning theory. This combination leads to more effective horse training, but also plays a role in keeping horse riders and trainers safe around horses. Equitation science underpins ethical equitation, and recognises the limits of the horse’s cognitive and physical abilities. Equitation is an ancient practice that has benefited from a rich tradition that sees it flourishing in contemporary sporting pursuits. Despite its history, horse-riding is an activity for which neither horses nor humans evolved, and it brings with it significant risks to the safety of both species. This review outlines the reasons horses may behave in ways that endanger humans and how training choices can exacerbate this. It then discusses the recently introduced 10 Principles of Equitation Science and explains how following these principles can minimise horse-related risk to humans and enhance horse welfare. PMID:26907354

  13. Common UCP2 variants contribute to serum urate concentrations and the risk of hyperuricemia.

    PubMed

    Yang, Luyu; Dong, Zheng; Zhou, Jingru; Ma, Yanyun; Pu, Weilin; Zhao, Dongbao; He, Hongjun; Ji, Hengdong; Yang, Yajun; Wang, Xiaofeng; Xu, Xia; Pang, Yafei; Zou, Hejian; Jin, Li; Yang, Chengde; Wang, Jiucun

    2016-01-01

    Elevated serum urate, which is regulated at multiple levels including genetic variants, is a risk factor for gout and other metabolic diseases. This study aimed to investigate the association between UCP2 variants and serum urate as well as hyperuricemia in a Chinese population. In total, 4332 individuals were genotyped for two common UCP2 variants, -866G/A and Ala55Val. These loci were not associated either serum urate level or with a risk of hyperuricemia in the total group of subjects. However, in females, -866G/A and Ala55Val were associated with a lower serum urate (P = 0.006 and 0.014, seperately) and played a protective role against hyperuricemia (OR = 0.80, P = 0.018; OR = 0.79, P = 0.016). These associations were not observed in the males. After further stratification, the two loci were associated with serum urate in overweight, but not underweight females. The haplotype A-T (-866G/A-Ala55Val) was a protective factor for hyperuricemia in the female subgroup (OR = 0.80, P = 0.017). This present study identified a novel gene, UCP2, that influences the serum urate concentration and the risk of hyperuricemia, and the degree of association varies with gender and BMI levels. PMID:27273589

  14. [Program designed for the parents of babies at risk: contribution to the training of the nursing student].

    PubMed

    Scochi, Carmen Gracinda Silvan; Nogueira, Fernanda dos Santos; Pereira, Fabíola Lima; Brunherotti, Mariana Ribeiro

    2002-01-01

    The present study is related to the academic education of nursing students who participated in a public service program designed for parents of high-risk newborns assisted in neonatal units. It is a descriptive study that has as its objective to analyze the contribution of such professional experience for those students. The subjects of this investigation were nursing students aged 18 to 22 years old. These students performed ludic, educational and leisure activities with parents of high-risk newborns assisted in a university school in the city of Ribeirão Preto. Data were collected by means of a questionnaires through which the subjects reported their experience in the project (advantages, disadvantages and contributions to their education). The answers were analyzed through the thematic analysis technique. Results showed that the program expanded students' view concerning nursing care and hospital care (beyond disease). It also improved interpersonal relationships; promoted the development of skills and the acquisition of knowledge and values. Thus contributing to students academic education and creativity. PMID:12592784

  15. Evaluating explosive eruption risk at European volcanoes: Contributions from the EU-funded EXPLORIS project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neri, A.; Baxter, P. J.

    2009-04-01

    The potential for great losses of life and economic disruption in violent eruptions has emerged as a reality with the recent rapid growth of human settlements in the vicinity of many explosive volcanoes around the world. EXPLORIS (acronym of the EU-funded project "Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes") and the former CASUALRUPT project (acronym of the EC project entitled "Human and Structural Vulnerability Assessment for Emergency Planning in a Future Eruption of Vesuvius using Volcanic Simulation and Casualty Modelling") are probably the first major multi-disciplinary projects to develop quantitative methods for making risk assessments and developing evidence-based planning for disaster management at explosive-erupting volcanoes. Vesuvius is a prime example, as a future eruption could have a catastrophic impact on the sprawling mega-city around the Bay of Naples, and is amongst the most serious natural disaster threats the EU faces in the foreseeable future. Acknowledging scientific uncertainty and the need to measure it has emerged recently in many disparate scientific fields as "evidence science" and developing new methods of formally incorporating it and the widely differing views of scientists into decision making was one of the main goals of EXPLORIS. New 3-D numerical models of explosive processes using supercomputers were also ground-breaking in the studies of volcanic impacts in the built environment which were based on more accurate and comprehensive vulnerability functions and databases of buildings and their human occupants. The probabilistic risk and decision tools developed in EXPLORIS provide a new paradigm in volcanology that unifies many disciplines engaged in mitigation and crisis management at Vesuvius and the three island volcanoes also studied (La Soufriere,Guadeloupe; Teide, Tenerife; and Sete Cidades,Azores).

  16. Risk contribution from low power, shutdown, and other operational modes beyond full power

    SciTech Connect

    Whitehead, D.W.; Brown, T.D.; Chu, T.L.

    1995-04-01

    During 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (a pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (a boiling water reactor), were selected for study by Brookhaven National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories, respectively. The program objectives included assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power and comparing estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences, and other qualitative and quantitative results with full power accidents as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope included a Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for traditional internal events and a Level 1 PRA on fire, flooding, and seismically induced core damage sequences. A phased approach was used in Level 1. In Phase 1 the concept of plant operational states (POSs) was developed to provide a better representation of the plant as it transitions from power to nonpower operation. This included a coarse screening analysis of all POSs to identify vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) potential frequencies of core damage accidents, and to provide a foundation for a detailed Phase 2 analysis. In Phase 2, selected POSs from both Grand Gulf and Surry were chosen for detailed analysis. For Grand Gulf, POS 5 (approximately cold shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications) during a refueling outage was selected. For Surry, three POSs representing the time the plant spends in midloop operation were chosen for analysis. These included POS 6 and POS 10 of a refueling outage and POS 6 of a drained maintenance outage. Level 1 and Level 2/3 results from both the Surry and Grand Gulf analyses are presented.

  17. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    PubMed

    Magdás, Annamária; Szilágyi, László; Incze, Alexandru

    2016-01-01

    Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV) and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV) was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients), medium as 9.8-12.8 mmHg (48 patients), and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients). Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0113). Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7 ± 23.2 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0261). Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value. PMID:27247614

  18. TaqI polymorphism of VDR gene contributes to breast cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hua; Wang, Wenjian; Yang, Dongjie; Wang, Shenming

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies on the association of Vitamin D receptor (VDR) TaqI gene polymorphism with breast carcinogenesis have yielded inconsistent and inconclusive findings. The current meta-analysis was performed to provide a more precise assessment on the role of VDR TaqI polymorphism in breast cancer risk. 20 eligible case-control studies involving 9,055 cases and 10,516 controls were identified after a comprehensive literature search of the PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Wanfang databases. The pooled odds ratio (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was calculated. Stratified analyses by ethnicity and study quality were conducted for further estimation. All statistical analyses were conducted by use of STATA (STATA Corporation, College Station, TX, Version 11.0). The overall ORs showed that the variant t allele and tt genotype were related to an increased risk of breast cancer (OR(t vs. T) = 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.10, P(OR) = 0.025; OR(tt vs. TT) = 1.12, 95% CI 1.03-1.23, P(OR) = 0.011; OR(tt vs. Tt + TT) = 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.20, P(OR) = 0.023). Stratified analyses of studies in Caucasians and with high-quality further confirmed the results. However, no significant relationship was observed among Asians. This meta-analysis suggests that the VDR TaqI polymorphism confers risk effect on the breast cancer development, particularly in Caucasians. PMID:23904261

  19. Dairy cattle serum and milk factors contributing to the risk of colon and breast cancers.

    PubMed

    zur Hausen, Harald; de Villiers, Ethel-Michele

    2015-08-15

    The analysis of published epidemiological data on colon and breast cancer reveals a remarkable concordance for most regions of the world. A low incidence for both cancers has been recorded in Mongolia and Bolivia. Discrepant data, however, have been reported for India, Japan and Korea. In India, the incidence of breast cancer is significantly higher than for colon cancer, in Japan and Korea colon cancer exceeds by far the rate of breast cancer. Here, studies are summarized pointing to a species-specific risk for colon cancer after consumption of beef originating from dairy cattle. Uptake of dairy products of Bos taurus-derived milk cattle, particularly consumed at early age, is suggested to represent one of the main risk factors for the development of breast cancer. A recent demonstration of reduced breast cancer rates in individuals with lactose intolerance (Ji et al., Br J Cancer 2014; 112:149-52) seems to be in line with this interpretation. Species-specific risk factors for these cancers are compatible with the transmission of different infectious factors transferred via meat or dairy products. Countries with discordant rates of colon and breast cancer reveal a similar discordance between meat and milk product consumption of dairy cattle. The recent isolation of a larger number of novel presumably viral DNAs from serum, meat and dairy products of healthy dairy cows, at least part of them infectious for human cells, deserves further investigation. Systemic infections early in life, resulting in latency and prevention of subsequent infections with the same agent by neutralizing antibodies, would require reconsideration of ongoing prospective studies conducted in the adult population. PMID:25648405

  20. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    PubMed Central

    Magdás, Annamária; Szilágyi, László; Incze, Alexandru

    2016-01-01

    Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV) and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV) was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients), medium as 9.8–12.8 mmHg (48 patients), and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients). Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0113). Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7 ± 23.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0261). Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value. PMID:27247614

  1. Familial, Social, and Individual Factors Contributing to Risk for Adolescent Substance Use

    PubMed Central

    Bachand, Annette; Peel, Jennifer; Brown, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Data from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reveal high numbers of adolescent substance use in the United States. Substance use among adolescents can lead to increased risk of transmission of sexually transmitted infections, vehicular fatalities, juvenile delinquency, and other problems associated with physical and mental health. Adolescents are particularly susceptible to involvement in substance use due to the underdeveloped state of the adolescent brain, which can lead to reduced decision-making ability and increased long-term effects of drugs and alcohol. Understanding the causes of adolescent substance use is vital for successful prevention and intervention programs. PMID:24826363

  2. GSTT1 Null Genotype Contributes to Lung Cancer Risk in Asian Populations: A Meta-Analysis of 23 Studies

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Jing-Wen; Wang, Xiao-xiao; Jiang, Feng; Yin, Rong; Xu, Lin

    2013-01-01

    Background Genetic variation in glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) may contribute to lung cancer risk. Many studies have investigated the correlation between the Glutathione S-transferase T1 (GSTT1) null genotype and lung cancer risk in Asian population but yielded inconclusive results. Methodology/Principal Findings We performed a meta-analysis of 23 studies including 4065 cases and 5390 controls. We assessed the strength of the association of GSTT1 with lung cancer risk and performed sub-group analyses by source of controls, smoking status, histological types, and sample size. A statistically significant correlation between GSTT1 null genotype and lung cancer in Asian population was observed (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.10, 1.49; Pheterogeneity<0.001 and I2 = 62.0%). Sub-group analysis revealed there was a statistically increased lung cancer risk in ever-smokers who carried the GSTT1 null genotype (OR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.27, 2.96; P heterogeneity = 0.02 and I2 = 58.1%). It was also indicated that GSTT1 null genotype could increase lung cancer risk among population-based studies (OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.04, 1.50; Pheterogeneity = 0.003 and I2 = 56.8%). The positive association was also found in studies of sample size (≤500 participants) (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.10, 1.62; Pheterogeneity<0.001 and I2 = 65.4%). Conclusions These meta-analysis results suggest that GSTT1 null genotype is associated with a significantly increased risk of lung cancer in Asian population. PMID:23637998

  3. Common colorectal cancer risk alleles contribute to the multiple colorectal adenoma phenotype, but do not influence colonic polyposis in FAP.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Timothy H T; Gorman, Maggie; Martin, Lynn; Barclay, Ella; Casey, Graham; Saunders, Brian; Thomas, Huw; Clark, Sue; Tomlinson, Ian

    2015-02-01

    The presence of multiple (5-100) colorectal adenomas suggests an inherited predisposition, but the genetic aetiology of this phenotype is undetermined if patients test negative for Mendelian polyposis syndromes such as familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) and MUTYH-associated polyposis (MAP). We investigated whether 18 common colorectal cancer (CRC) predisposition single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) could help to explain some cases with multiple adenomas who phenocopied FAP or MAP, but had no pathogenic APC or MUTYH variant. No multiple adenoma case had an outlying number of CRC SNP risk alleles, but multiple adenoma patients did have a significantly higher number of risk alleles than population controls (P=5.7 × 10(-7)). The association was stronger in those with ≥10 adenomas. The CRC SNPs accounted for 4.3% of the variation in multiple adenoma risk, with three SNPs (rs6983267, rs10795668, rs3802842) explaining 3.0% of the variation. In FAP patients, the CRC risk score did not differ significantly from the controls, as we expected given the overwhelming effect of pathogenic germline APC variants on the phenotype of these cases. More unexpectedly, we found no evidence that the CRC SNPs act as modifier genes for the number of colorectal adenomas in FAP patients. In conclusion, common colorectal tumour risk alleles contribute to the development of multiple adenomas in patients without pathogenic germline APC or MUTYH variants. This phenotype may have 'polygenic' or monogenic origins. The risk of CRC in relatives of multiple adenoma cases is probably much lower for cases with polygenic disease, and this should be taken into account when counselling such patients. PMID:24801760

  4. Ranking the contributions of commercial fish and shellfish varieties to mercury exposure in the United States: implications for risk communication.

    PubMed

    Groth, Edward

    2010-04-01

    Fish and shellfish have important nutritional benefits, and US per capita seafood consumption has increased substantially since 2002. Recent research has reinforced concerns about adverse effects of methylmercury exposure, suggesting that methylmercury doses associated with typical US rates of fish consumption may pose measurable risks, with no threshold. These converging trends create a need to improve risk communication about fish consumption and mercury. The analysis performed here identifies the relative importance of different fish and shellfish as sources of mercury in the US seafood supply and proposes improved consumer advice, so that the public can benefit from fish consumption while minimizing mercury exposure. I have quantified contributions to total mercury in the US seafood supply by 51 different varieties of fish and shellfish, then ranked and sorted the 51 varieties in terms of relative impact. Except for swordfish, most fish with the highest mercury levels are relatively minor contributors to total inputs. Tuna (canned light, canned albacore and fresh/frozen varieties) accounts for 37.4 percent of total mercury inputs, while two-thirds of the seafood supply and nine of the 11 most heavily consumed fish and shellfish are low or very low in mercury. Substantial improvement in risk communication about mercury in fish and seafood is needed; in particular, several population subsets need better guidance to base their seafood choices more explicitly on mercury content. I have sorted the 51 seafood varieties into six categories based on mercury levels, as a framework for improving risk communication in this regard. PMID:20116785

  5. The Contribution of Equitation Science to Minimising Horse-Related Risks to Humans.

    PubMed

    Starling, Melissa; McLean, Andrew; McGreevy, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Equitation science is an evidence-based approach to horse training and riding that focuses on a thorough understanding of both equine ethology and learning theory. This combination leads to more effective horse training, but also plays a role in keeping horse riders and trainers safe around horses. Equitation science underpins ethical equitation, and recognises the limits of the horse's cognitive and physical abilities. Equitation is an ancient practice that has benefited from a rich tradition that sees it flourishing in contemporary sporting pursuits. Despite its history, horse-riding is an activity for which neither horses nor humans evolved, and it brings with it significant risks to the safety of both species. This review outlines the reasons horses may behave in ways that endanger humans and how training choices can exacerbate this. It then discusses the recently introduced 10 Principles of Equitation Science and explains how following these principles can minimise horse-related risk to humans and enhance horse welfare. PMID:26907354

  6. Ecological risk assessment of urban creek sediments contaminated by untreated domestic wastewater: potential contribution of antimicrobials and a musk fragrance.

    PubMed

    Tamura, Ikumi; Kimura, Kumiko; Kameda, Yutaka; Nakada, Norihide; Yamamoto, Hiroshi

    2013-01-01

    Despite the fact that some hydrophobic pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) have been found to accumulate in river sediments, little is known about the contribution of these compounds to the toxicity of the whole sediment. We sampled river sediments from two urban creeks with an unsewered drainage area to investigate the toxicity for a benthic organism, Chironomus yoshimatsui. The concentrations of selected hydrophobic PPCPs, triclosan (TCS), triclocarban (TCC) and galaxolide (HHCB) were analysed using gas chromatographic mass spectroscopy or liquid chromatographic mass spectroscopy and were found to lie within the range 50 to 200 ng g(-1). The toxicity of the three individual contaminants for the chironomid was also determined. The toxicity of TCC was found to be the strongest, with an NOEC value of 2.5 microg g(-1). Combining the toxicity and measured environmental concentration, the ecological risk was assessed and the contribution of these contaminants to the whole sediment toxicity estimated, assuming additivity. The hazard quotient of all three compounds, determined without assessment factor, ranged between 0.01 and 0.1. The combined contribution of the three compounds to total sediment toxicity was as high as 8.2%, but other unknown factors may also make an important contribution. PMID:24191491

  7. Factors contributing to the risk of HIV infection in rural school-going adolescents.

    PubMed

    Awotidebe, Adedapo; Phillips, Julie; Lens, Willy

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the factors that increase the risk of HIV infection in rural school-going adolescents and young adults. This was a cross-sectional study of 430 secondary school students (47.4% boys and 52.6% girls) from two rural schools in South Africa. Data were collected with a self-administered questionnaire on demographic information, sources of HIV/AIDS information, HIV knowledge, sexual behaviors, communication and negotiation skills, self-efficacy to refuse sex, peer influence and time perspective. Out of 113 (27.2%) participants who reported being sexually active, about 48% reported having had sex before the age of 15 and 42.2% reported penetrative sex with more than one partner in their lifetime. Only 44.8% of them reported consistent and regular use of condoms for every sexual encounter. Peer influence (OR = 3.01 (95% CI = 1.97-4.60)), gender difference (OR = 6.60 (95% CI = 1.62-26.84)) and lack of HIV information (OR = 1.22 (95% CI = 1.03-1.44)) influenced the sexual risk behaviors of the adolescents. Greater numbers of school-going adolescents in rural areas are sexually active. Peer influence, especially in boys, is a factor that increases the preponderance of risky sexual behaviors in adolescents. Positively, adolescents with high knowledge of HIV infection are more likely to use condoms for every sexual encounter. There is a need to strengthen comprehensive sexual health education and youth-friendly HIV prevention strategies to promote abstinence and safe sexual behaviors, especially among boys. PMID:25405598

  8. Factors Contributing to the Risk of HIV Infection in Rural School-Going Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Awotidebe, Adedapo; Phillips, Julie; Lens, Willy

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the factors that increase the risk of HIV infection in rural school-going adolescents and young adults. This was a cross-sectional study of 430 secondary school students (47.4% boys and 52.6% girls) from two rural schools in South Africa. Data were collected with a self-administered questionnaire on demographic information, sources of HIV/AIDS information, HIV knowledge, sexual behaviors, communication and negotiation skills, self-efficacy to refuse sex, peer influence and time perspective. Out of 113 (27.2%) participants who reported being sexually active, about 48% reported having had sex before the age of 15 and 42.2% reported penetrative sex with more than one partner in their lifetime. Only 44.8% of them reported consistent and regular use of condoms for every sexual encounter. Peer influence (OR = 3.01 (95% CI = 1.97–4.60)), gender difference (OR = 6.60 (95% CI = 1.62–26.84)) and lack of HIV information (OR = 1.22 (95% CI = 1.03–1.44)) influenced the sexual risk behaviors of the adolescents. Greater numbers of school-going adolescents in rural areas are sexually active. Peer influence, especially in boys, is a factor that increases the preponderance of risky sexual behaviors in adolescents. Positively, adolescents with high knowledge of HIV infection are more likely to use condoms for every sexual encounter. There is a need to strengthen comprehensive sexual health education and youth-friendly HIV prevention strategies to promote abstinence and safe sexual behaviors, especially among boys. PMID:25405598

  9. Analytic determination of the eight-and-a-half post-Newtonian self-force contributions to the two-body gravitational interaction potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bini, Donato; Damour, Thibault

    2014-05-01

    We analytically compute, to the eight-and-a-half post-Newtonian order, and to linear order in the mass ratio, the radial potential describing (within the effective one-body formalism) the gravitational interaction of two bodies, thereby extending previous analytic results. These results are obtained by applying analytical gravitational self-force theory (for a particle in circular orbit around a Schwarzschild black hole) to Detweiler's gauge-invariant redshift variable. We emphasize the increase in "transcendentality" of the numbers entering the post-Newtonian expansion coefficients as the order increases, in particular we note the appearance of ζ(3) (as well as the square of Euler's constant γ) starting at the seventh post-Newtonian order. We study the convergence of the post-Newtonian expansion as the expansion parameter u =GM/(c2r) leaves the weak-field domain u ≪1 to enter the strong field domain u=O(1).

  10. Contribution of the Nurses’ Health Studies to Uncovering Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes: Diet, Lifestyle, Biomarkers, and Genetics

    PubMed Central

    Ley, Sylvia H.; Ardisson Korat, Andres V.; Sun, Qi; Tobias, Deirdre K.; Zhang, Cuilin; Qi, Lu; Willett, Walter C.; Manson, JoAnn E.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To review the contribution of the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and the NHS II to addressing hypotheses regarding risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Methods. We carried out a narrative review of 1976 to 2016 NHS and NHS II publications. Results. The NHS and NHS II have uncovered important roles in type 2 diabetes for individual nutrients, foods, dietary patterns, and physical activity independent of excess body weight. Up to 90% of type 2 diabetes cases are potentially preventable if individuals follow a healthy diet and lifestyle. The NHS investigations have also identified novel biomarkers for diabetes, including adipokines, inflammatory cytokines, nutrition metabolites, and environmental pollutants, offering new insights into the pathophysiology of the disease. Global collaborative efforts have uncovered many common genetic variants associated with type 2 diabetes and improved our understanding of gene–environment interactions. Continued efforts to identify epigenetic, metagenomic, and metabolomic risk factors for type 2 diabetes have the potential to reveal new pathways and improve prediction and prevention. Conclusions. Over the past several decades, the NHS and NHS II have made major contributions to public health recommendations and strategies designed to reduce the global burden of diabetes. PMID:27459454

  11. Analysis of Risk Factors Contributing to Recurrence of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma in Chinese Patients Who Underwent Total Thyroidectomy

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Wei; Jiao, De; Liu, Baoguo; Sun, Shanping

    2016-01-01

    Background Thyroid cancer is a very common endocrine malignancy, with a rate of total thyroidectomy reported to be up to 27.8%. However, studies analyzing the risk factors that contribute to recurrence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) after total thyroidectomy in China are still scarce. Material/Methods A total of 536 patients with PTC who underwent total thyroidectomy were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into 2 groups: patients with no recurrent tumor were included in group 1 and patients with tumor recurrence were included in group 2. Results Of 536 patients, 65 patients (12.1%) developed a recurrence of PTC, and 471 patients (87.9%) did not have a recurrence. Univariate analysis indicated that male sex, age ≥50 years, tumor ≥1 cm, poor differentiation, lymph node metastasis, bilaterality, and multifocality may be related to PTC recurrence. Additionally, the results of the logistic regression analysis indicated that male sex, age ≥50 years, primary tumor ≥1 cm, poor dedifferentiation of the tumor, lymph node metastasis, and multifocality may be independent factors contributing to PTC recurrence. Conclusions Male sex, age more than 50 years, primary tumor larger than 1 cm, poor dedifferentiation of the primary tumor, lymph node metastasis, and multifocality were found to increase the risk of PTC recurrence in patients who underwent total thyroidectomy. Additionally, it is necessary to use strictly aggressive and extensive surgery, as well as close monitoring, after the operation. PMID:27084873

  12. The relative contribution of climatic, edaphic, and biotic drivers to risk of tree mortality from drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    March, R. G.; Moore, G. W.; Edgar, C. B.; Lawing, A. M.; Washington-Allen, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    In recorded history, the 2011 Texas Drought was comparable in severity only to a drought that occurred 300 years ago. By mid-September, 88% of the state experienced 'exceptional' conditions, with the rest experiencing 'extreme' or 'severe' drought. By recent estimates, the 2011 Texas Drought killed 6.2% of all the state's trees, at a rate nearly 9 times greater than average. The vast spatial scale and relatively uniform intensity of this drought has provided an opportunity to examine the comparative interactions among forest types, terrain, and edaphic factors across major climate gradients which in 2011 were subjected to extreme drought conditions that ultimately caused massive tree mortality. We used maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) to rank environmental landscape factors with the potential to drive drought-related tree mortality and test the assumption that the relative importance of these factors are scale-dependent. Occurrence data of dead trees were collected during the summer of 2012 from 599 field plots distributed across Texas with 30% used for model evaluation. Bioclimatic variables, ecoregions, soils characteristics, and topographic variables were modeled with drought-killed tree occurrence. Their relative contribution to the model was seen as their relative importance in driving mortality. To test determinants at a more local scale, we examined Landsat 7 scenes in East and West Texas with moderate-resolution data for the same variables above with the exception of climate. All models were significantly better than random in binomial tests of omission and receiver operating characteristic analyses. The modeled spatial distribution of probability of occurrence showed high probability of mortality in the east-central oak woodlands and the mixed pine-hardwood forest region in northeast Texas. Both regional and local models were dominated by biotic factors (ecoregion and forest type, respectively). Forest density and precipitation of driest month also

  13. Rare disruptive mutations and their contribution to the heritable risk of colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Chubb, Daniel; Broderick, Peter; Dobbins, Sara E; Frampton, Matthew; Kinnersley, Ben; Penegar, Steven; Price, Amy; Ma, Yussanne P; Sherborne, Amy L; Palles, Claire; Timofeeva, Maria N; Bishop, D Timothy; Dunlop, Malcolm G; Tomlinson, Ian; Houlston, Richard S

    2016-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) displays a complex pattern of inheritance. It is postulated that much of the missing heritability of CRC is enshrined in high-impact rare alleles, which are mechanistically and clinically important. In this study, we assay the impact of rare germline mutations on CRC, analysing high-coverage exome sequencing data on 1,006 early-onset familial CRC cases and 1,609 healthy controls, with additional sequencing and array data on up to 5,552 cases and 6,792 controls. We identify highly penetrant rare mutations in 16% of familial CRC. Although the majority of these reside in known genes, we identify POT1, POLE2 and MRE11 as candidate CRC genes. We did not identify any coding low-frequency alleles (1-5%) with moderate effect. Our study clarifies the genetic architecture of CRC and probably discounts the existence of further major high-penetrance susceptibility genes, which individually account for >1% of the familial risk. Our results inform future study design and provide a resource for contextualizing the impact of new CRC genes. PMID:27329137

  14. Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy.

    PubMed

    Martínez-López, Beatriz; Perez, Andres M; Feliziani, Francesco; Rolesu, Sandro; Mur, Lina; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José M

    2015-01-01

    This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions. PMID:25926829

  15. Global mortality, disability, and the contribution of risk factors: Global Burden of Disease Study.

    PubMed

    Murray, C J; Lopez, A D

    1997-05-17

    The Global Burden of Disease Study used the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) to compare death and disability from various disorders in developing and developed countries. In 1990, developing countries carried almost 90% of the global disease burden yet were recipients of only 10% of global health care funding. The highest disease burdens were in sub-Saharan Africa (21.4% of global total) and India (20.9%). Communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders (group 1 causes) predominated in sub-Saharan Africa (65.9% of burden), while noncommunicable diseases (group 2 causes) accounted for 80% of the burden in established market economies; injuries (group 3) did not differ substantially across regions. The ratio of group 2 to group 1 disorders can be used as a measure of the epidemiologic transition. Group 2 disorders already surpass group 1 disorders in China, Latin America, and the Caribbean. On a global level, group 1, 2, and 3 causes accounted for 43.9%, 40.9%, and 15.1%, respectively, of DALYs. Overall, the top 3 causes of DALYs in 1990 were lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, and perinatal disorders (low birth weight and birth asphyxia or birth trauma). In developed countries, these causes were ischemic heart disease, unipolar major depression, and cerebrovascular diseases. Malnutrition was the risk factor responsible for the greatest loss of DALYs (15.9%), followed by poor water supply, sanitation, and personal hygiene (6.8%). PMID:9164317

  16. PSCA rs2294008 polymorphism contributes to the decreased risk for cervical cancer in a Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shizhi; Wu, Shenshen; Zhu, Haixia; Ding, Bo; Cai, Yunlang; Ni, Jing; Wu, Qiang; Meng, Qingtao; Zhang, Xin; Zhang, Chengcheng; Li, Xiaobo; Wang, Meilin; Chen, Rui; Jin, Hua; Zhang, Zhengdong

    2016-01-01

    Recently, three genome-wide association studies have identified the PSCA (prostate stem cell antigen) rs2294008 polymorphism (C > T) associated with susceptibility to gastric cancer, bladder cancer, and duodenal ulcers, highlighting its critical role in disease pathogenesis. Given PSCA is reported to be overexpressed in cervical cancer and the rs2294008 can influence PSCA transcription, we aimed to determine the role of rs2294008 in susceptibility to cervical cancer. The genotyping was performed in the 1126 cases and 1237 controls. Our results showed the rs2294008 TT genotype significantly associated with a reduced risk of cervical cancer (adjusted OR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.38–0.79; recessive model). Stratified analyses revealed that the association was restricted to the subgroups of age > 49 years, parity ≤ 1, abortion and early-stage cervical cancer. Immunohistochemistry assay showed the individuals carrying the TT genotype having lower PSCA expression than those with CC/CT genotypes. In summary, the PSCA rs2294008 polymorphism may serve as a biomarker of cervical cancer, particularly of early-stage cervical cancer. PMID:27001215

  17. Genetic contributions to the risk assessment of microcystin in the environment

    SciTech Connect

    Dittmann, Elke; Boerner, Thomas

    2005-03-15

    Of the known toxins produced by cyanobacteria, microcystins and nodularins are the most significant threat to human and animal health. Knock-out studies have confirmed that microcystins are produced nonribosomally by a multienzyme complex consisting of peptide synthetases, polyketide synthases, and tailoring enzymes. Gene clusters for microcystin biosynthesis have been identified and sequenced in the distantly related cyanobacterial genera Microcystis, Planktothrix, and Anabaena. Homologous genes have been detected in a nodularin-producing Nodularia strain. Subsequently, microcystin biosynthesis (mcy) genes have been used to establish molecular techniques for the detection of toxigenic cyanobacteria in laboratory and field studies. mcy genes of unknown origin can be assigned to the producing species. Techniques are currently being developed for the quantification of mcy genes in field populations. These initial genetic investigations pave the way for a molecular monitoring of microcystin- and nodularin-producing cyanobacteria and for studying the dynamics of toxic cyanobacteria in lakes. Furthermore, microcystin-deficient mutants have significantly increased our knowledge about the impact of the toxins on Microcystis-Daphnia interactions. The experience gained on microcystin biosynthesis genes will be valuable for a risk assessment of microcystin in the environment and for future water management and lake-restoration strategies.

  18. IL-4 Gene Polymorphism May Contribute to an Increased Risk of Atopic Dermatitis in Children

    PubMed Central

    Shang, Hong; Cao, Xiu-Li; Wan, Yu-Jie; Meng, Jin; Guo, Lu-Hong

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to elucidate the associations between interleukin-4 (IL-4) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), 590C/T and 589C/T, serum IL-4 levels, and atopic dermatitis (AD) in children. Methods. A total of 82 children with AD were randomly selected as the case group and divided into mild group (15 cases), moderate group (46 cases), and severe group (21 cases). Additionally, 100 healthy children were selected as the control group. Genotype frequencies of IL-4 SNPs were detected by PCR-RFLP. Serum IL-4 levels were measured by ELISA. Results. Significant differences were shown in genotype distributions and allele frequencies of 589C/T and allele frequencies of 590C/T (all P < 0.05). Serum IL-4 levels in the mild, moderate, and severe groups were significantly higher than those in the control group; significant differences were found among these three groups with increased severity of AD. Serum IL-4 levels of heterozygote and mutant homozygote carriers in the mild, moderate, and severe groups were higher than wild homozygote carriers in those three groups and the control group (all P < 0.05). Conclusion. 590T and 589T alleles of IL-4 gene may be associated with high levels of serum IL-4, which may increase the risk of AD in children. PMID:27212784

  19. Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy

    PubMed Central

    Martínez-López, Beatriz; Perez, Andres M.; Feliziani, Francesco; Rolesu, Sandro; Mur, Lina; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José M.

    2015-01-01

    This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions. PMID:25926829

  20. The contribution of sting-jet windstorms to extreme wind risk in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hart, Neil C.; Gray, Suzanne L.; Clark, Peter A.

    2016-04-01

    Windstorms are a major winter weather risk for many countries in Europe. These storms are predominantly associated with explosively-developing extratropical cyclones that track across the region. A substantial body of literature exists on the synoptic-scale dynamics, predictability and climatology of such storms. More recently, interest in the mesoscale variability of the most damaging winds has led to a focus on the role of sting jets in enhancing windstorm severity. We present a present-era climatology of North Atlantic cyclones that had potential to produce sting jets. Considering only explosively-developing cyclones, those with sting-jet potential are more likely to have higher relative vorticity and associated low-level wind maxima. Furthermore, the strongest winds for sting-jet cyclones are more often in the cool sector, behind the cold front, when compared with other explosively-developing cyclones which commonly have strong warm-sector winds too. The tracks of sting-jet cyclones, and explosively-developing cyclones in general, show little offset from the climatological storm track. While rare over Europe, sting-jet cyclones are relatively frequent within the main storm track with up to one third of extratropical cyclones exhibiting sting-jet potential. Thus, the rarity and, until recently, lack of description of sting-jet windstorms is more due to the climatological storm track location away from highly-populated land masses, than due to an actual rarity of such storms in nature.

  1. Rare disruptive mutations and their contribution to the heritable risk of colorectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Chubb, Daniel; Broderick, Peter; Dobbins, Sara E.; Frampton, Matthew; Kinnersley, Ben; Penegar, Steven; Price, Amy; Ma, Yussanne P.; Sherborne, Amy L.; Palles, Claire; Timofeeva, Maria N.; Bishop, D. Timothy; Dunlop, Malcolm G.; Tomlinson, Ian; Houlston, Richard S.

    2016-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) displays a complex pattern of inheritance. It is postulated that much of the missing heritability of CRC is enshrined in high-impact rare alleles, which are mechanistically and clinically important. In this study, we assay the impact of rare germline mutations on CRC, analysing high-coverage exome sequencing data on 1,006 early-onset familial CRC cases and 1,609 healthy controls, with additional sequencing and array data on up to 5,552 cases and 6,792 controls. We identify highly penetrant rare mutations in 16% of familial CRC. Although the majority of these reside in known genes, we identify POT1, POLE2 and MRE11 as candidate CRC genes. We did not identify any coding low-frequency alleles (1–5%) with moderate effect. Our study clarifies the genetic architecture of CRC and probably discounts the existence of further major high-penetrance susceptibility genes, which individually account for >1% of the familial risk. Our results inform future study design and provide a resource for contextualizing the impact of new CRC genes. PMID:27329137

  2. Physiological and lifestyle factors contributing to risk and severity of peri-orbital dark circles in the Brazilian population*

    PubMed Central

    Matsui, Mary S; Schalka, Sérgio; Vanderover, Garrett; Fthenakis, Christina G.; Christopher, J; Bombarda, Patricia Camarano Pinto; Bueno, Juliana Regina; Viscomi, Bianca Lenci Inácio; Bombarda Júnior, Mário Sérgio

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND Peri-orbital dark circles are a cosmetic concern worldwide, and have been attributed to hyperpigmentation from allergy or atopic dermatitis, blood stasis, structural shadowing effects, and a thin epidermis/dermis under the eye. It is of interest to better understand lifestyle and demographic risk factors and the relative impact of melanin, blood and epidermal/dermal factors on the severity of Peri-orbital dark circles. OBJECTIVE To compare by non-invasive imaging the impact of biological factors to a visual grading scale for Peri-orbital dark circles, and test the correlation of various demographic factors with Peri-orbital dark circles. METHODS Subjects completed a lifestyle and health survey, and Peri-orbital dark circles severity was evaluated using standardized photographs. Hyperspectral image analysis was used to assess the contributions of melanin, blood volume, degree of blood oxygen saturation, and dermal scattering. RESULTS Family history was the most significant risk factor for Peri-orbital dark circles. The average age of onset was 24 years, and earlier onset correlated with higher severity scores. Asthma was significantly associated with Peri-orbital dark circles scores, but self-reported allergy was not. In this study, sleep was not correlated with Peri-orbital dark circles scores. Hyperspectral imaging indicated that melanin was the dominant correlate for Peri-orbital dark circles severity, while oxygen saturation was secondary. The difference between under-eye and cheek measurements for ∆L*and ∆E* were the most significant instrumental parameters correlated with visual assessment of Peri-orbital dark circles severity. CONCLUSION Although typically associated with lack of sleep, risk of Peri-orbital dark circles is primarily hereditary. The main factors contributing to the appearance of Peri-orbital dark circles are melanin and (deoxygenated) blood. PMID:26375218

  3. Violence: an unrecognized environmental exposure that may contribute to greater asthma morbidity in high risk inner-city populations.

    PubMed Central

    Wright, R J; Steinbach, S F

    2001-01-01

    In the United States, rising trends in asthma prevalence and severity, which disproportionately impact minorities and the urban poor, have not been fully explained by traditional physical environmental risk factors. Exigencies of inner-city living can increase psychosocial risk factors (e.g., stress) that confer increased asthma morbidity. In the United States, chronic exposure to violence is a unique stressor existing in many high-risk urban neighborhoods. In this paper, we describe a series of cases that exemplify a temporal association between exposure to violence and the precipitation of asthma exacerbations in four urban pediatric patients. In the first three cases, the nature of the exposure is characterized by the proximity to violence, which ranged from direct victimization (through either the threat of physical assault or actual assault) to learning of the death of a peer. The fourth case characterizes a scenario in which a child was exposed to severe parental conflict (i.e., domestic violence) in the hospital setting. Increasingly, studies have begun to explore the effect of living in a violent environment, with a chronic pervasive atmosphere of fear and the perceived or real threat of violence, on health outcomes in population-based studies. Violence exposure may contribute to environmental demands that tax both the individual and the communities in which they live to impact the inner-city asthma burden. At the individual level, intervention strategies aimed to reduce violence exposure, to reduce stress, or to counsel victims or witnesses to violence may be complementary to more traditional asthma treatment in these populations. Change in policies that address the social, economic, and political factors that contribute to crime and violence in urban America may have broader impact. PMID:11675274

  4. [How the information system can contribute to the implementation of a risk management program in a hospital?].

    PubMed

    Staccini, P; Quaranta, J F; Staccini-Myx, A; Veyres, P; Jambou, P

    2003-09-01

    Nowadays, information system is recognised as one of the key points of the management strategy. An information system is regarded conceptualised as a mean to link 3 aspects of a firm (structure, organisation rules and staff). Its design and implementation have to meet the objectives of medical and economical evaluation, especially risk management objectives. In order to identify, analyse, reduce and prevent the occurrence of adverse events, and also to measure the efficacy and efficiency of the production of care services, the design of information systems should be based on a process analysis in order to describe and classify all the working practices within the hospital. According to various methodologies (usually top-down analysis), each process can be divided into activities. Each activity (especially each care activity) can be described according to its potential risks and expected results. For care professionals performing a task, the access to official or internal guidelines and the adverse events reporting forms has also to be defined. Putting together all the elements of such a process analysis will contribute to integrate, into daily practice, the management of risks, supported by the information system. PMID:14563420

  5. A functional variant in miR-155 regulation region contributes to lung cancer risk and survival.

    PubMed

    Xie, Kaipeng; Ma, Hongxia; Liang, Cheng; Wang, Cheng; Qin, Na; Shen, Wei; Gu, Yayun; Yan, Caiwang; Zhang, Kai; Dai, Ningbin; Zhu, Meng; Wu, Shuangshuang; Wang, Hui; Dai, Juncheng; Jin, Guangfu; Shen, Hongbing; Hu, Zhibin

    2015-12-15

    Emerging evidence suggested that upregulation of miR-155 could serve as a promising marker for the diagnosis and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In the present study, we genotyped rs767649 (A > T) located in miR-155 regulation region in 1341 cases and 1982 controls, and analyzed the associations of rs767649 with NSCLC risk and survival. Consequently, rs767649 exhibited the significant associations with the risk (adjusted OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.01-1.24, P = 0.031) and prognosis of NSCLC (adjusted HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.03-1.32, P = 0.014). Meanwhile, rs767649 specifically interacted with radio-chemotherapy (P(int) = 0.013), and patients with both the rs767649-TT genotype and radio-chemotherapy had the highest hazard ratio (adjusted HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.26-2.16, P < 0.001). Furthermore, using functional assays and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Lung Adenocarcinoma (LUAD) dataset, we found that rs767649 variant allele could increase the transcriptional activity of miR-155, which in turn facilitated tumor growth and metastasis by inhibiting HBP1, TJP1, SMAD5 and PRKAR1A expression. Our findings suggested that rs767649 A > T might contribute to the increased risk and poor prognosis of NSCLC, highlighting the importance of rs767649 in the prevention and therapy of NSCLC. PMID:26543233

  6. A functional variant in miR-155 regulation region contributes to lung cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Cheng; Qin, Na; Shen, Wei; Gu, Yayun; Yan, Caiwang; Zhang, Kai; Dai, Ningbin; Zhu, Meng; Wu, Shuangshuang; Wang, Hui; Dai, Juncheng; Jin, Guangfu; Shen, Hongbing; Hu, Zhibin

    2015-01-01

    Emerging evidence suggested that upregulation of miR-155 could serve as a promising marker for the diagnosis and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In the present study, we genotyped rs767649 (A > T) located in miR-155 regulation region in 1341 cases and 1982 controls, and analyzed the associations of rs767649 with NSCLC risk and survival. Consequently, rs767649 exhibited the significant associations with the risk (adjusted OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.01–1.24, P = 0.031) and prognosis of NSCLC (adjusted HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.03–1.32, P = 0.014). Meanwhile, rs767649 specifically interacted with radio-chemotherapy (Pint = 0.013), and patients with both the rs767649-TT genotype and radio-chemotherapy had the highest hazard ratio (adjusted HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.26–2.16, P < 0.001). Furthermore, using functional assays and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Lung Adenocarcinoma (LUAD) dataset, we found that rs767649 variant allele could increase the transcriptional activity of miR-155, which in turn facilitated tumor growth and metastasis by inhibiting HBP1, TJP1, SMAD5 and PRKAR1A expression. Our findings suggested that rs767649 A > T might contribute to the increased risk and poor prognosis of NSCLC, highlighting the importance of rs767649 in the prevention and therapy of NSCLC. PMID:26543233

  7. The contribution of the anaesthetist to risk-adjusted mortality after cardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Papachristofi, O; Sharples, L D; Mackay, J H; Nashef, S A M; Fletcher, S N; Klein, A A

    2016-02-01

    It is widely accepted that the performance of the operating surgeon affects outcomes, and this has led to the publication of surgical results in the public domain. However, the effect of other members of the multidisciplinary team is unknown. We studied the effect of the anaesthetist on mortality after cardiac surgery by analysing data collected prospectively over ten years of consecutive cardiac surgical cases from ten UK centres. Casemix-adjusted outcomes were analysed in models that included random-effects for centre, surgeon and anaesthetist. All cardiac surgical operations for which the EuroSCORE model is appropriate were included, and the primary outcome was in-hospital death up to three months postoperatively. A total of 110 769 cardiac surgical procedures conducted between April 2002 and March 2012 were studied, which included 127 consultant surgeons and 190 consultant anaesthetists. The overwhelming factor associated with outcome was patient risk, accounting for 95.75% of the variation for in-hospital mortality. The impact of the surgeon was moderate (intra-class correlation coefficient 4.00% for mortality), and the impact of the anaesthetist was negligible (0.25%). There was no significant effect of anaesthetist volume above ten cases per year. We conclude that mortality after cardiac surgery is primarily determined by the patient, with small but significant differences between surgeons. Anaesthetists did not appear to affect mortality. These findings do not support public disclosure of cardiac anaesthetists' results, but substantially validate current UK cardiac anaesthetic training and practice. Further research is required to establish the potential effects of very low anaesthetic caseloads and the effect of cardiac anaesthetists on patient morbidity. PMID:26511481

  8. Big data in health care: using analytics to identify and manage high-risk and high-cost patients.

    PubMed

    Bates, David W; Saria, Suchi; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Shah, Anand; Escobar, Gabriel

    2014-07-01

    The US health care system is rapidly adopting electronic health records, which will dramatically increase the quantity of clinical data that are available electronically. Simultaneously, rapid progress has been made in clinical analytics--techniques for analyzing large quantities of data and gleaning new insights from that analysis--which is part of what is known as big data. As a result, there are unprecedented opportunities to use big data to reduce the costs of health care in the United States. We present six use cases--that is, key examples--where some of the clearest opportunities exist to reduce costs through the use of big data: high-cost patients, readmissions, triage, decompensation (when a patient's condition worsens), adverse events, and treatment optimization for diseases affecting multiple organ systems. We discuss the types of insights that are likely to emerge from clinical analytics, the types of data needed to obtain such insights, and the infrastructure--analytics, algorithms, registries, assessment scores, monitoring devices, and so forth--that organizations will need to perform the necessary analyses and to implement changes that will improve care while reducing costs. Our findings have policy implications for regulatory oversight, ways to address privacy concerns, and the support of research on analytics. PMID:25006137

  9. Evaluation of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Using Analytical Methods, Toxicology, and Risk Assessment Research: Seafood Safety after a Petroleum Spill as an Example

    PubMed Central

    Overton, Edward; Frickel, Scott; Howard, Jessi; Wilson, Mark; Simon, Bridget; Echsner, Stephen; Nguyen, Daniel; Gauthe, David; Blake, Diane; Miller, Charles; Elferink, Cornelis; Ansari, Shakeel; Fernando, Harshica; Trapido, Edward; Kane, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Background: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are abundant and widespread environmental chemicals. They are produced naturally and through man-made processes, and they are common in organic media, including petroleum. Several PAHs are toxic, and a subset exhibit carcinogenic activity. PAHs represent a range of chemical structures based on two or more benzene rings and, depending on their source, can exhibit a variety of side modifications resulting from oxygenation, nitrogenation, and alkylation. Objectives: Here we discuss the increasing ability of contemporary analytical methods to distinguish not only different chemical structures among PAHs but also their concentrations in environmental media. Using seafood contamination following the Deepwater Horizon accident as an example, we identify issues that are emerging in the PAH risk assessment process because of increasing analytical sensitivity for individual PAHs, and we describe the paucity of toxicological literature for many of these compounds. Discussion: PAHs, including the large variety of chemically modified or substituted PAHs, are naturally occurring and may constitute health risks if human populations are exposed to hazardous levels. However, toxicity evaluations have not kept pace with modern analytic methods and their increased ability to detect substituted PAHs. Therefore, although it is possible to measure these compounds in seafood and other media, we do not have sufficient information on the potential toxicity of these compounds to incorporate them into human health risk assessments and characterizations. Conclusions: Future research efforts should strategically attempt to fill this toxicological knowledge gap so human health risk assessments of PAHs in environmental media or food can be better determined. This is especially important in the aftermath of petroleum spills. Citation: Wickliffe J, Overton E, Frickel S, Howard J, Wilson M, Simon B, Echsner S, Nguyen D, Gauthe D, Blake D, Miller C

  10. Hsa-miR-499 rs3746444 Polymorphism Contributes to Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis of 12 Studies

    PubMed Central

    Ding, Xiang-Xiang; Yang, Xin; Zhang, Zhi; Yin, Rong; Xu, Lin

    2012-01-01

    Background Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) occurred in pre-microRNAs or targets of microRNAs (miRs) may contribute to cancer risks. Since 2007, many studies have investigated the association between common SNPs located on hsa-miR-499 (rs3746444) and cancer risks; however, the results were inconclusive. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a meta-analysis of 12 studies that included 5765 cases and 7076 controls to identify the strength of association. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were used to assess the strength of association. Overall, individuals with the variant AG (OR = 1.215, 95% CI: 1.027, 1.437; Pheterogeneity<0.01) and AG/GG (OR = 1.227, 95% CI: 1.046, 1.439; Pheterogeneity<0.01) genotypes were associated with a significantly increased risk of cancer than those with wild AA genotype. Sub-group analysis revealed that the variant AG (OR = 1.411, 95% CI: 1.142, 1.745; Pheterogeneity = 0.01) and AG/GG (OR = 1.413, 95% CI: 1.163, 1.717, Pheterogeneity = 0.01) genotypes still showed an increased risk of cancer in Asians; however, a trend of reduced risk of cancer was observed in Caucasians (AG vs. AA: OR = 0.948, 955 CI: 0.851, 1.057, Pheterogeneity = 0.12; AG/GG vs. AA: OR = 0.959, 95% CI: 0.865, 1.064; Pheterogeneity = 0.19). Meta-regression showed that ethnicity (p = 0.048) and sample size (p = 0.02) but not cancer types (p = 0.89) or source of control (p = 0.97) were the sources of heterogeneity. Conclusions These meta-analysis results suggest that hsa-miR-499 polymorphism rs3746444 is associated with a significantly increased risk of cancer, especially in Asian populations. PMID:23236400

  11. The effects of risk-glorifying media exposure on risk-positive cognitions, emotions, and behaviors: a meta-analytic review.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Kastenmüller, Andreas; Vogrincic, Claudia; Sauer, Anne

    2011-05-01

    In recent years, there has been a surge in the quantity of media content that glorifies risk-taking behavior, such as risky driving, extreme sports, or binge drinking. The authors conducted a meta-analysis involving more than 80,000 participants and 105 independent effect sizes to examine whether exposure to such media depictions increased their recipients' risk-taking inclinations. A positive connection was found for overall, combined risk taking (g=.41); as well as its underlying dimensions: risk-taking behaviors (g=.41), risk-positive cognitions and attitudes (g=.35), and risk-positive emotions (g=.56). This effect was observed across varying research methods (experimental, correlational, longitudinal); types of media (video games, movies, advertising, TV, music); and differing risk-related outcome measures (e.g., smoking, drinking, risky driving, sexual behavior). Multiple moderator analyses revealed 2 theoretically new boundary conditions for sociocognitive models. First, the effect was stronger for active (i.e., video games) than for passive (e.g., film, music) exposure to risk-glorifying media content. Second, the effect was stronger when there was a high degree of contextual fit between the media content and type of risk-taking measure. The theoretical, practical, and societal implications of the present research synthesis are discussed. PMID:21341887

  12. The contribution of geophysical techniques to site characterisation and liquefaction risk assessment: Case study of Nafplion City, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karastathis, V. K.; Karmis, P.; Novikova, T.; Roumelioti, Z.; Gerolymatou, E.; Papanastassiou, D.; Liakopoulos, S.; Tsombos, P.; Papadopoulos, G. A.

    2010-11-01

    We present an example of how geophysical methodologies can considerably contribute to seismic and liquefaction risk assessment in an area where urban development is planned. The inspection for possible hidden faults by geophysical methods is particularly critical, since such a possibility could practically hinder the town planning in this area. However, even if no primary threats exist within the area, the response of the foundation soil to various scenarios of historical earthquakes, which have affected the place in the past, must be examined. The geophysical methodologies could also assist this analysis, contributing with the calculation of the amplification of the seismic motion from the bedrock up to the surface. The investigation area of Nafplion, Greece, was suspected to have high liquefaction potential since the foundation soil consists of loose sandy silt with a very shallow aquifer. The implementation of gravity and seismic methods considerably aided the investigation for possible seismic faults. Special emphasis was given to seismic depth migration and particularly to the construction of valid velocity models, in order to precisely calculate the dip characteristics of the structures. Shallow seismic techniques were also applied to provide the near-surface velocity structure, which is a prerequisite for assessing the liquefaction risk. In particular, our case study provides an example of how seismic methods (seismic reflection, seismic refraction, seismic modelling, MASW, multichannel analysis of microtremors and crosshole investigations) when combined with geotechnical borehole testing, enhance the reliability of their output and allow the coverage of wide areas in a cost-effective way in comparison to standard borehole tests. Data and information provided by the application of the geophysical methods were subsequently incorporated in the liquefaction risk assessment at several selected sites within the study area. Factors of safety against liquefaction

  13. Reducing psychosocial risks through supervisors' development: a contribution for a brief version of the "Stress Management Competency Indicator Tool".

    PubMed

    Toderi, Stefano; Gaggia, Andrea; Balducci, Cristian; Sarchielli, Guido

    2015-06-15

    With the recent changes in the world of work psychosocial risks are increasingly prevalent, causing work stress and physical and mental illnesses, which have a tremendous impact on public health and social participation. Supervisors' behaviour development was proposed as an innovative intervention that can reduce psychosocial risks. The "Stress Management Competency Indicator Tool" is one of the most important questionnaires that assess managers' preventive behaviour. However, its psychometric properties have never been evaluated and the length of the questionnaire (66 items) limits its practical applicability. The aim of this study was to contribute to the development of the questionnaire by providing psychometric evidence on a brief version of the tool focusing on the "Managing and Communicating existing and future Work" cluster of behaviours, which has been found to be the crucial one in terms of stress prevention. A questionnaire was administered to 178 employees of two Italian public organizations (a municipality and a hospital), measuring the supervisors' "Managing and Communicating existing and future Work" competency, and the affective well-being and work team effectiveness. The results showed excellent psychometric properties of the supervisors' behaviour scale and confirmed the expected relationships with criterion outcomes (affective well-being and team effectiveness). Overall, the factorial structure and dimensionality, the construct validity and reliability, and the concurrent validity of the tool were strongly supported by this study. We concluded that the brief version of the scale is a valid and reliable measure that can be easily used in practice and that can contribute to the development of research and practice on this topic. PMID:25770947

  14. A Potential Epigenetic Marker Mediating Serum Folate and Vitamin B12 Levels Contributes to the Risk of Ischemic Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Keat Wei, Loo; Sutherland, Heidi; Au, Anthony; Camilleri, Emily; Haupt, Larisa M.; Gan, Siew Hua; Griffiths, Lyn R.

    2015-01-01

    Stroke is a multifactorial disease that may be associated with aberrant DNA methylation profiles. We investigated epigenetic dysregulation for the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene among ischemic stroke patients. Cases and controls were recruited after obtaining signed written informed consents following a screening process against the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Serum vitamin profiles (folate, vitamin B12, and homocysteine) were determined using immunoassays. Methylation profiles for CpGs A and B in the MTHFR gene were determined using a bisulfite-pyrosequencing method. Methylation of MTHFR significantly increased the susceptibility risk for ischemic stroke. In particular, CpG A outperformed CpG B in mediating serum folate and vitamin B12 levels to increase ischemic stroke susceptibility risks by 4.73-fold. However, both CpGs A and B were not associated with serum homocysteine levels or ischemic stroke severity. CpG A is a potential epigenetic marker in mediating serum folate and vitamin B12 to contribute to ischemic stroke. PMID:25705649

  15. Contributions of Early Cortical Processing and Reading Ability to Functional Status in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Carrión, Ricardo E.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.; McLaughlin, Danielle; Chang, Jeremy; Auther, Andrea M.; Olsen, Ruth H.; Javitt, Daniel C.

    2015-01-01

    Background There is a growing recognition that individuals at clinical high risk need intervention for functional impairments, along with emerging psychosis, as the majority of clinical high risk (CHR) individuals show persistent deficits in social and role functioning regardless of transition to psychosis. Recent studies have demonstrated reduced reading ability as a potential cause of functional disability in schizophrenia, related to underlying deficits in generation of mismatch negativity (MMN). The present study extends these findings to subjects at CHR. Methods The sample consisted of 34 CHR individuals and 33 healthy comparisons subjects (CNTLs) from the Recognition and Prevention (RAP) Program at the Zucker Hillside Hospital in New York. At baseline, reading measures were collected, along with MMN to pitch, duration, and intensity deviants, and measures of neurocognition, and social and role (academic/work) functioning. Results CHR subjects showed impairments in reading ability, neurocognition, and MMN generation, relative to CNTLs. Lower-amplitude MMN responses were correlated with worse reading ability, slower processing speed, and poorer social and role functioning. However, when entered into a simultaneous regression, only reduced responses to deviance in sound duration and volume predicted poor social and role functioning, respectively. Conclusions Deficits in reading ability exist even prior to illness onset in schizophrenia and may represent a decline in performance from prior abilities. As in schizophrenia, deficits are related to impaired MMN generation, suggesting specific contributions of sensory-level impairment to neurocognitive processes related to social and role function. PMID:25728833

  16. Hemolysate-mediated platelet aggregation: an additional risk mechanism contributing to thrombosis of continuous flow ventricular assist devices.

    PubMed

    Tran, Phat L; Pietropaolo, Maria-Grazia; Valerio, Lorenzo; Brengle, William; Wong, Raymond K; Kazui, Toshinobu; Khalpey, Zain I; Redaelli, Alberto; Sheriff, Jawaad; Bluestein, Danny; Slepian, Marvin J

    2016-07-01

    Despite the clinical success and growth in the utilization of continuous flow ventricular assist devices (cfVADs) for the treatment of advanced heart failure, hemolysis and thrombosis remain major limitations. Inadequate and/or ineffective anticoagulation regimens, combined with high pump speed and non-physiological flow patterns, can result in hemolysis which often is accompanied by pump thrombosis. An unexpected increase in cfVADs thrombosis was reported by multiple major VAD implanting centers in 2014, highlighting the association of hemolysis and a rise in lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) presaging thrombotic events. It is well established that thrombotic complications arise from the abnormal shear stresses generated by cfVADs. What remains unknown is the link between cfVAD-associated hemolysis and pump thrombosis. Can hemolysis of red blood cells (RBCs) contribute to platelet aggregation, thereby, facilitating prothrombotic complications in cfVADs? Herein, we examine the effect of RBC-hemolysate and selected major constituents, i.e., lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and plasma free hemoglobin (pHb) on platelet aggregation, utilizing electrical resistance aggregometry. Our hypothesis is that elements of RBCs, released as a result of shear-mediated hemolysis, will contribute to platelet aggregation. We show that RBC hemolysate and pHb, but not LDH, are direct contributors to platelet aggregation, posing an additional risk mechanism for cfVAD thrombosis. PMID:26590166

  17. Assessing the underlying breast cancer risk of Chinese females contributed by dietary intake of residual DDT from agricultural soils.

    PubMed

    Tang, Mengling; Zhao, Meirong; Zhou, Shanshan; Chen, Kun; Zhang, Chunlong; Liu, Weiping

    2014-12-01

    The greatest concern over DDT exposure in China arose since the early 1990s for the rising breast cancer incidence, and the cause still remains to be elucidated. An extensive survey of DDT background in agricultural soils, covered the entire region of China, was conducted. DDT at concentrations greater than 100 ng/g (the China's Farmland Environmental Quality Evaluation Standards for Edible Agricultural Products) was found to impact 42.3 million Chinese population. Considering the geographical differences with diverse DDT contributions and different diet products and habits, the average daily dietary intake was modeled and estimated to be 0.34 μg/kg p,p'-DDE (the main bioactive constituent in DDT). Population attributable fraction derived from a case-control study from 78 women with breast cancer and 72 controls was used to assess the DDT exposure risk to breast cancer. Based on the estimated population attributable fraction with a median value of 0.6% (IQR 0.23-2.11%), the excess annual breast cancer incidence rate attributable to p,p'-DDE exposure averaged 0.06×10(-5) with significant spatial variations varying from 0.00021×10(-5) to 11.05×10(-5) in Chinese females. Exposure to DDT is a contributor to breast cancer, but the overall limited relative risk and population attributable fraction imply confounding factors for breast cancer in Chinese females. Exposure risk in a regional scale helps understand the cause and prevention of breast cancer. Our mapping and modeling method could be used to assess other environmental carcinogens and related cancer diseases. PMID:25160079

  18. Immunity factor contributes to altered brain functional networks in individuals at risk for Alzheimer's disease: Neuroimaging-genetic evidence.

    PubMed

    Bai, Feng; Shi, Yongmei; Yuan, Yonggui; Xie, Chunming; Zhang, Zhijun

    2016-08-01

    Clusterin (CLU) is recognized as a secreted protein that is related to the processes of inflammation and immunity in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The effects of the risk variant of the C allele at the rs11136000 locus of the CLU gene are associated with variations in the brain structure and function. However, the relationship of the CLU-C allele to architectural disruptions in resting-state networks in amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) subjects (i.e., individuals with elevated risk of AD) remains relatively unknown. Using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and an imaging genetic approach, this study investigated whether individual brain functional networks, i.e., the default mode network (DMN) and the task-positive network, were modulated by the CLU-C allele (rs11136000) in 50 elderly participants, including 26 aMCI subjects and 24 healthy controls. CLU-by-aMCI interactions were associated with the information-bridging regions between resting-state networks rather than with the DMN itself, especially in cortical midline regions. Interestingly, the complex communications between resting-state networks were enhanced in aMCI subjects with the CLU rs11136000 CC genotype and were modulated by the degree of memory impairment, suggesting a reconstructed balance of the resting-state networks in these individuals with an elevated risk of AD. The neuroimaging-genetic evidence indicates that immunity factors may contribute to alterations in brain functional networks in aMCI. These findings add to the evidence that the CLU gene may represent a potential therapeutic target for slowing disease progression in AD. PMID:26899953

  19. Vitamin D Receptor Gene FokI Polymorphism Contributes to Increasing the Risk of Tuberculosis: An Update Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Huang, Liling; Liu, Cunxu; Liao, Guangfu; Yang, Xiaobing; Tang, Xiuwen; Chen, Jingjie

    2015-12-01

    The association between vitamin D receptor (VDR) FokI polymorphism and tuberculosis (TB) risk remains a matter of debate. Potential selection bias exists in most studies using HIV-positive TB patients.An update meta-analysis was carried out to derive a more reliable assessment of the association between FokI polymorphisms and TB risk, especially in HIV-negative TB patients. All major databases from inception to June 2015 were searched for all publications that studied the association between FokI polymorphism and TB risk. The odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated according to the frequencies of genotypes.In total, 32 studies with 4894 cases and 5319 controls were included in this meta-analysis. In the overall analysis, the estimated OR was 1.34 (95% CI=1.091-1.646, P = 0.005) in the best genetic model (recessive model, ff vs fF+FF) with moderate heterogeneity (I = 32.2%, P = 0.043). In the subgroup analysis stratified by HIV status, significant associations were found only in the HIV-negative TB group (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.180-2.077, P = 0.002; I = 29.5%, and P = 0.141 for heterogeneity). In the subgroup analysis stratified by ethnicity, significant associations were found in the Asian group (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.205-2.261, P = 0.002; I = 43.9%, and P = 0.024 for heterogeneity), but not in the Caucasian group (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.762-1.547, P = 0.649; I = 0.0%, and P = 0.740 for heterogeneity) and African group (OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.726-1.341, P = 0.934; I = 43.9%, and P = 0.024 for heterogeneity).This meta-analysis confirms that VDR FokI polymorphism contributes to the risk of TB, especially in HIV-negative TB patients and in the Asian group. Further studies are required to clarify the role of the FokI polymorphism in HIV-positive TB and in other ethnic groups. PMID:26705207

  20. Balancing the Risks of Bleeding and Stent Thrombosis: A Decision Analytic Model to Compare Duration of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy after Drug-Eluting Stents

    PubMed Central

    Garg, Pallav; Galper, Benjamin Z.; Cohen, David J.; Yeh, Robert W.; Mauri, Laura

    2015-01-01

    Background After coronary stent placement, whether dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) duration should be extended to prevent late stent thrombosis (ST) or adverse cardiovascular events is uncertain. Methods To define the reduction in ischemic events required to outweigh increased bleeding with longer-duration DAPT, we developed a decision-analytic Markov model comparing DAPT durations of 6, 12, and 30 months after DES. Separate models were developed for patients presenting with and without an acute-coronary syndrome (ACS). We used sensitivity analyses to identify the incremental benefit of longer-duration DAPT on either ST or the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke (MACCE) required to outweigh the increased risk of bleeding associated with longer DAPT. The outcome from each strategy was quantified in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Results In the non-ACS population, in order for 30 months of DAPT to be preferred over 12 months of therapy, DAPT would have to result in 78% reduction in the risk of ST (relative risk, RR, 0.22; 3.1 fewer events per 1000) and only a 5% reduction in MACCE (RR 0.95; 2.2 fewer events per 1000) as compared to aspirin alone. For the ACS population, DAPT would have to result in 44% reduction in the risk of ST (RR, 0.56; 3.4 fewer events per 1000) but only a 2% reduction in MACCE (RR 0.98; 2.3 fewer events per 1000) as compared to aspirin alone, for 30 months of DAPT to be preferred over 12 months. Conclusions Small absolute differences in the risk of ischemic events with longer DAPT would be sufficient to outweigh the known bleeding risks. PMID:25641531

  1. The Effects of Risk-Glorifying Media Exposure on Risk-Positive Cognitions, Emotions, and Behaviors: A Meta-Analytic Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Kastenmuller, Andreas; Vogrincic, Claudia; Sauer, Anne

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a surge in the quantity of media content that glorifies risk-taking behavior, such as risky driving, extreme sports, or binge drinking. The authors conducted a meta-analysis involving more than 80,000 participants and 105 independent effect sizes to examine whether exposure to such media depictions increased their…

  2. Increased micronucleus frequency in peripheral blood lymphocytes contributes to cancer risk in the methyl isocyanate-affected population of Bhopal.

    PubMed

    Senthilkumar, Chinnu Sugavanam; Akhter, Sameena; Malla, Tahir Mohiuddin; Sah, Nand Kishore; Ganesh, Narayanan

    2015-01-01

    lifestyle habits (smoking, alcohol consumption and tobacco-chewing) was observed only in the controls. Our results suggest that EF and FOE are more susceptible to cancer development, as compared to EM and MOE. The genotoxic outcome detected in FOE reflects their parental exposure to MIC. Briefly, the observed cytogenetic damage to the MIC-affected could contribute to cancer risk, especially in the EF and FOE. PMID:26028107

  3. What Is the Contribution of Two Genetic Variants Regulating VEGF Levels to Type 2 Diabetes Risk and to Microvascular Complications?

    PubMed Central

    Bonnefond, Amélie; Roussel, Ronan; Nezhad, Mohsen Azimi; Dechaume, Aurélie; Lantieri, Olivier; Hercberg, Serge; Lauritzen, Torsten; Balkau, Beverley; El-Sayed Moustafa, Julia S.; Hansen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Froguel, Philippe; Charpentier, Guillaume; Marre, Michel; Hadjadj, Samy; Visvikis-Siest, Sophie

    2013-01-01

    Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a key chemokine involved in tissue growth and organ repair processes, particularly angiogenesis. Elevated circulating VEGF levels are believed to play a role in type 2 diabetes (T2D) microvascular complications, especially diabetic retinopathy. Recently, a genome-wide association study identified two common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs6921438 and rs10738760) explaining nearly half of the variance in circulating VEGF levels. Considering the putative contribution of VEGF to T2D and its complications, we aimed to assess the effect of these VEGF-related SNPs on the risk of T2D, nephropathy and retinopathy, as well as on variation in related traits. SNPs were genotyped in several case-control studies: French and Danish T2D studies (Ncases = 6,920-Ncontrols = 3,875 and Ncases = 3,561-Ncontrols = 2,623; respectively), two French studies one for diabetic nephropathy (Ncases = 1,242-Ncontrols = 860) and the other for diabetic retinopathy (Ncases = 1,336-Ncontrols = 1,231). The effects of each SNP on quantitative traits were analyzed in a French general population-based cohort (N = 4,760) and two French T2D studies (N = 3,480). SNP associations were assessed using logistic or linear regressions. In the French population, we found an association between the G-allele of rs6921438, shown to increase circulating VEGF levels, and increased T2D risk (OR = 1.15; P = 3.7×10−5). Furthermore, the same allele was associated with higher glycated hemoglobin levels (β = 0.02%; P = 9.2×10−3). However, these findings were not confirmed in the Danes. Conversely, the SNP rs10738760 was not associated with T2D in the French or Danish populations. Despite having adequate statistical power, we did not find any significant effects of rs6921438 or rs10738760 on diabetic microvascular complications or the variation in related traits in T2D patients. In spite of their impact on

  4. Contributions of maternal and paternal adiposity and smoking to adult offspring adiposity and cardiovascular risk: the Midspan Family Study

    PubMed Central

    Han, T S; Hart, C L; Haig, C; Logue, J; Upton, M N; Watt, G C M; Lean, M E J

    2015-01-01

    Objective Obesity has some genetic basis but requires interaction with environmental factors for phenotypic expression. We examined contributions of gender-specific parental adiposity and smoking to adiposity and related cardiovascular risk in adult offspring. Design Cross-sectional general population survey. Setting Scotland. Participants 1456 of the 1477 first generation families in the Midspan Family Study: 2912 parents (aged 45–64 years surveyed between 1972 and 1976) who had 1025 sons and 1283 daughters, aged 30–59 years surveyed in 1996. Main measures Offspring body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), cardiometabolic risk (lipids, blood pressure and glucose) and cardiovascular disease as outcome measures, and parental BMI and smoking as determinants. All analyses adjusted for age, socioeconomic status and family clustering and offspring birth weight. Results Regression coefficients for BMI associations between father–son (0.30) and mother–daughter (0.33) were greater than father–daughter (0.23) or mother–son (0.22). Regression coefficient for the non-genetic, shared-environment or assortative-mating relationship between BMIs of fathers and mothers was 0.19. Heritability estimates for BMI were greatest among women with mothers who had BMI either <25 or ≥30 kg/m2. Compared with offspring without obese parents, offspring with two obese parents had adjusted OR of 10.25 (95% CI 6.56 to 13.93) for having WC ≥102 cm for men, ≥88 cm women, 2.46 (95% CI 1.33 to 4.57) for metabolic syndrome and 3.03 (95% CI 1.55 to 5.91) for angina and/or myocardial infarct (p<0.001). Neither parental adiposity nor smoking history determined adjusted offspring individual cardiometabolic risk factors, diabetes or stroke. Maternal, but not paternal, smoking had significant effects on WC in sons (OR=1.50; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.01) and daughters (OR=1.42; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.84) and metabolic syndrome OR=1.68; 95% CI 1.17 to 2.40) in sons. Conclusions There are

  5. A genome-wide study shows a limited contribution of rare copy number variants to Alzheimer's disease risk

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Jade; Rees, Elliott; Harold, Denise; Ivanov, Dobril; Gerrish, Amy; Sims, Rebecca; Hollingworth, Paul; Stretton, Alexandra; Holmans, Peter; Owen, Michael J.; O'Donovan, Michael C.; Williams, Julie; Kirov, George

    2013-01-01

    We assessed the role of rare copy number variants (CNVs) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) using intensity data from 3260 AD cases and 1290 age-matched controls from the genome-wide association study (GWAS) conducted by the Genetic and Environmental Risk for Alzheimer's disease Consortium (GERAD). We did not observe a significant excess of rare CNVs in cases, although we did identify duplications overlapping APP and CR1 which may be pathogenic. We looked for an excess of CNVs in loci which have been highlighted in previous AD CNV studies, but did not replicate previous findings. Through pathway analyses, we observed suggestive evidence for biological overlap between single nucleotide polymorphisms and CNVs in AD susceptibility. We also identified that our sample of elderly controls harbours significantly fewer deletions >1 Mb than younger control sets in previous CNV studies on schizophrenia and bipolar disorder (P = 8.9 × 10−4 and 0.024, respectively), raising the possibility that healthy elderly individuals have a reduced rate of large deletions. Thus, in contrast to diseases such as schizophrenia, autism and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, CNVs do not appear to make a significant contribution to the development of AD. PMID:23148125

  6. Exploration of risk factors contributing to the presence of influenza A virus in swine at agricultural fairs

    PubMed Central

    Bowman, Andrew S; Workman, Jeffrey D; Nolting, Jacqueline M; Nelson, Sarah W; Slemons, Richard D

    2014-01-01

    Influenza A virus infections occurring in exhibition swine populations at agricultural fairs during 2012 served as a source of H3N2 variant influenza A viruses transmitted to humans resulting in more than 300 documented cases. Prior to the outbreak, this investigation was initiated to identify fair-level risk factors contributing to influenza A virus infections in pigs at agricultural fairs. As part of an ongoing active surveillance program, nasal swabs and associated fair-level metadata were collected from pigs at 40 junior fair market swine shows held in Ohio during the 2012 fair season. Analyses of the data show that the adjusted odds of having influenza A virus-infected pigs at a fair were 1.27 (95% confidential interval (CI): 1.04–1.66) higher for every 20 pig increase in the size of the swine show. Additionally, four of the five fairs that hosted breeding swine shows in addition to their junior fair market swine shows had pigs test positive for influenza A virus. While the current study was limited to 40 fairs within one state, the findings provided insight for veterinary and public health officials developing mitigation strategies to decrease the intra- and inter-species transmission of influenza A virus at fairs. PMID:26038494

  7. Evidence for vivianite formation and its contribution to long-term phosphorus retention in a recent lake sediment: a novel analytical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothe, M.; Frederichs, T.; Eder, M.; Kleeberg, A.; Hupfer, M.

    2014-05-01

    Vivianite, Fe3(PO4)2 × 8 H2O, is a ferrous iron phosphate mineral which forms in waterlogged soils and sediments. The phosphorus (P) bound in its crystal lattice is considered to be immobilised because vivianite is stable under anoxic, reducing, sedimentary conditions. Thus, vivianite formation can make a major contribution to P retention during early diagenesis. Much remains unknown about vivianite in sediments, because technical challenges have rendered direct identification and quantification difficult. To identify vivianite and assess its significance for P burial during early diagenesis we studied the consequences of a 1992/1993 in-lake application of FeCl3 and Fe(OH)3 aimed at restoring Lake Groß-Glienicke (Berlin, Germany). In a novel approach, we firstly applied a heavy-liquid separation to the iron-rich surface sediments which allowed direct identification of vivianite by X-ray diffraction in the high-density (ρ > 2.3 g cm-3) sediment fraction. Secondly, we assessed the contribution of vivianite to P retention, combining results from chemical digestion with magnetic susceptibility data derived from magnetic hysteresis measurements. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that the dark blue spherical vivianite nodules were 40-180 μm in diameter, and formed of platy- and needle shaped crystal aggregates. Although equilibrium calculations indicated supersaturation of vivianite throughout the upper 30 cm of the sediment, the vivianite deposits were homogeneously distributed within, and restricted to, the upper 23 cm only. Thus, supersaturated pore water alone cannot serve as a reliable predictor for the in-situ formation of vivianite. In Lake Groß -Glienicke, vivianite formation continues to be triggered by the artificial iron amendment more than 20 years ago, significantly contributing to P retention in surface sediments.

  8. Evidence for vivianite formation and its contribution to long-term phosphorus retention in a recent lake sediment: a novel analytical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothe, M.; Frederichs, T.; Eder, M.; Kleeberg, A.; Hupfer, M.

    2014-09-01

    Vivianite, Fe3(PO4)2 · 8 H2O, is a ferrous iron phosphate mineral which forms in waterlogged soils and sediments. The phosphorus (P) bound in its crystal lattice is considered to be immobilised because vivianite is stable under anoxic, reducing, sedimentary conditions. Thus, vivianite formation can make a major contribution to P retention during early diagenesis. Much remains unknown about vivianite in sediments, because technical challenges have rendered direct identification and quantification difficult. To identify vivianite and assess its significance for P burial during early diagenesis we studied the consequences of a 1992/1993 in-lake application of FeCl3 and Fe(OH)3 aimed at restoring Lake Groß-Glienicke (Berlin, Germany). In a novel approach, we firstly applied a heavy-liquid separation to the iron-rich surface sediments which allowed direct identification of vivianite by X-ray diffraction in the high-density (ρ > 2.3 g cm-3) sediment fraction. Secondly, we assessed the contribution of vivianite to P retention, combining results from chemical digestion with magnetic susceptibility data derived from magnetic hysteresis measurements. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that the dark blue spherical vivianite nodules were 40-180 μm in diameter, and formed of platy- and needle-shaped crystal aggregates. Although equilibrium calculations indicated supersaturation of vivianite throughout the upper 30 cm of the sediment, the vivianite deposits were homogeneously distributed within, and restricted to, the upper 23 cm only. Thus, supersaturated pore water alone cannot serve as a reliable predictor for the in situ formation of vivianite. In Lake Groß -Glienicke, vivianite formation continues to be triggered by the artificial iron amendment more than 20 yr ago, significantly contributing to P retention in surface sediments.

  9. Analytical characterization of movements of the spinal column and risk assessment due to repeated movements of the upper limbs of building painters.

    PubMed

    Antonucci, Andrea; Forcella, Laura; Bonfiglioli, Roberta; Boscolo, Paolo; Violante, Francesco Saverio

    2016-09-01

    Manual activities of construction workers may induce musculoskeletal disorders. This study on a group of painters aimed to analytically characterize movements of the spinal column by both lumbar motion monitor and television cameras and to determine, using the Occupational Repetitive Actions (OCRA) Index method, the risk exerted by repeated movements of the upper limbs. The main results are: painting with a roller generally exposes workers to a lesser risk for upper limbs than painting with a brush; a roller-stick fixed at the wrong length can lead to stretching of the back at lumbar and cervical levels; to remain within the range of 'acceptable risk' (OCRA Index evaluation), a worker should not paint a vertical wall for over 3 h if using a roller and 2.5 h if painting with a brush; and, on average, a painter who paints for 5 h in a day lifts the bucket about 120,140 times. PMID:27092402

  10. Anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A meta-analytic review.

    PubMed

    Bentley, Kate H; Franklin, Joseph C; Ribeiro, Jessica D; Kleiman, Evan M; Fox, Kathryn R; Nock, Matthew K

    2016-02-01

    Suicidal thoughts and behaviors are highly prevalent public health problems with devastating consequences. There is an urgent need to improve our understanding of risk factors for suicide to identify effective intervention targets. The aim of this meta-analysis was to examine the magnitude and clinical utility of anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicide ideation, attempts, and deaths. We conducted a literature search through December 2014; of the 65 articles meeting our inclusion criteria, we extracted 180 cases in which an anxiety-specific variable was used to longitudinally predict a suicide-related outcome. Results indicated that anxiety is a statistically significant, yet weak, predictor of suicide ideation (OR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.88) and attempts (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.47, 1.83), but not deaths (OR=1.01, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.18). The strongest associations were observed for PTSD. Estimates were reduced after accounting for publication bias, and diagnostic accuracy analyses indicated acceptable specificity but poor sensitivity. Overall, the extant literature suggests that anxiety and its disorders, at least when these constructs are measured in isolation and as trait-like constructs, are relatively weak predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors over long follow-up periods. Implications for future research priorities are discussed. PMID:26688478

  11. Anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A meta-analytic review

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Kate H.; Franklin, Joseph C.; Ribeiro, Jessica D.; Kleiman, Evan M.; Fox, Kathryn R.; Nock, Matthew K.

    2016-01-01

    Suicidal thoughts and behaviors are highly prevalent public health problems with devastating consequences. There is an urgent need to improve our understanding of risk factors for suicide to identify effective intervention targets. The aim of this meta-analysis was to examine the magnitude and clinical utility of anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicide ideation, attempts, and deaths. We conducted a literature search through December 2014; of the 65 articles meeting our inclusion criteria, we extracted 180 cases in which an anxiety-specific variable was used to longitudinally predict a suicide-related outcome. Results indicated that anxiety is a statistically significant, yet weak, predictor of suicide ideation (OR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.88) and attempts (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.47, 1.83), but not deaths (OR=1.01, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.18). The strongest associations were observed for PTSD. Estimates were reduced after accounting for publication bias, and diagnostic accuracy analyses indicated acceptable specificity but poor sensitivity. Overall, the extant literature suggests that anxiety and its disorders, at least when these constructs are measured in isolation and as trait-like constructs, are relatively weak predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors over long follow-up periods. Implications for future research priorities are discussed. PMID:26688478

  12. Oxidant stress regulatory genetic variation in recipients and donors contributes to risk of primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Cantu, Edward; Shah, Rupal J.; Lin, Wei; Daye, Zhongyin J.; Diamond, Joshua M.; Suzuki, Yoshikazu; Ellis, John H.; Borders, Catherine F.; Andah, Gerald A.; Beduhn, Ben; Meyer, Nuala J.; Ruschefski, Melanie; Aplenc, Richard; Feng, Rui; Christie, Jason D.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Oxidant stress pathway activation during ischemia reperfusion injury may contribute to the development of primary graft dysfunction (PGD) after lung transplantation. We hypothesized oxidant stress gene variation in recipients and donors is associated with PGD. Methods Donors and recipients from the Lung Transplant Outcomes Group (LTOG) cohort were genotyped using the Illumina IBC chip filtered for oxidant stress pathway genes. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) grouped into SNP-sets based on haplotype blocks within 49 oxidant stress genes selected from gene ontology pathways and literature review were tested for PGD association using a sequencing kernel association test. Analyses were adjusted for clinical confounding variables and population stratification. Results 392 donors and 1038 recipients met genetic quality control standards. 30% of subjects developed grade 3 PGD within 72 hours. Donor NADPH Oxidase 3 (NOX3) was associated with PGD (p=0.01) with 5 individual significant loci (p-values between 0.006 and 0.03). In recipients, variation in glutathione peroxidase (GPX1) and NRF-2 (NFE2L2) was significantly associated with PGD (p=0.01 for both). The GPX1 association included 3 individual loci (p-values between 0.006 and 0.049) and the NFE2L2 association included 2 loci (p=0.03 and 0.05). Significant epistatic effects influencing PGD susceptibility were evident between three different donor blocks of NOX3 and recipient NFE2L2 (p=0.026, p=0.017 and p=0.031). Conclusions Our study prioritizes GPX1, NOX3, and NFE2L2 genes for future research in PGD pathogenesis, and highlights a donor-recipient interaction of NOX3 and NFE2L2 that increases PGD risk. PMID:25439478

  13. Some Contributions of the Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment Approach to Earthquake Risk Assessment for the City of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paskaleva, Ivanka; Kouteva-Guentcheva, Mihaela; Vaccari, Franco; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2011-03-01

    This paper describes the outcome of the advanced seismic hazard and seismic risk estimates recently performed for the city of Sofia, based on the state-of-the-art of knowledge for this site. Some major results of the neo-deterministic, scenario-based, seismic hazard assessment approach (NDSHA) to the earthquake hazard assessment for the city of Sofia are considered. Further validations of the recently constructed synthetic strong motion database, containing site and seismic source-specific ground motion time histories are performed and discussed. Displacement and acceleration response spectra are considered. The elastic displacement response spectra and displacement demand are discussed with regard to earthquake magnitude, seismic source-to-site distance, seismic source mechanism, and local geological site conditions. The elastic response design spectrum from the standard pseudo-acceleration, versus natural period, T n, format, converted to a capacity diagram in S a - S d format is discussed in the perspective of the Eurocode 8 provisions. A brief overview of the engineering applications of the seismic demand obtained making use of the NDSHA is supplied. Some applications of the outcome of NDSHA procedure for engineering purposes are shown. The obtained database of ground shaking waveforms and time-histories, computed for city of Sofia is used to: (1) extract maximum particle velocities; (2) calculate the space distribution of the horizontal strain factor Log10 ɛ; (3) estimate liquefaction susceptibility in terms of standard penetration test, N values, and initial over burden stress; (4) estimate damage index distribution; and (5) map the distribution of the expected pipe breaks and red-tagged buildings for given scenario earthquakes, etc. The theoretically obtained database, based on the simultaneous treatment of the data from many disciplines, contains data fully suitable for practical use. The proper use of this database can lead to a significant seismic

  14. The contribution of emotionality and self-regulation to the understanding of children's response to multiple risk.

    PubMed

    Lengua, Liliana J

    2002-01-01

    This study investigated the additive and interactive effects of multiple risk, emotionality, and self-regulation in predicting children's adjustment problems and positive adjustment using a community sample (N = 101) of children in third through fifth grades. Multiple measures of emotionality and self-regulation were used, including observational measures and mother and child report on questionnaires. Results indicated that questionnaire measures of emotionality and self-regulation predicted children's positive and negative adjustment over and above the effects of multiple risk, as well as resilience and vulnerability. Negative emotionality predicted adjustment problems, positive emotionality predicted positive adjustment, and self-regulation predicted both. In addition, observational measures of self-regulation moderated the association between multiple risk and adjustment such that children low in self-regulation were more vulnerable to multiple risk. The results suggest that emotionality and self-regulation operate as additional risk and protective factors in multiple-risk models. PMID:14717249

  15. Population inhalation exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and associated lung cancer risk in Beijing region: Contributions of indoor and outdoor sources and exposures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Bin; Zhao, Bin

    2012-12-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic air pollutants in China. Efforts in assessing population inhalation exposure to PAHs, and its contribution to lung cancer risk for Chinese residents, have been limited due to insufficient data on measured indoor concentrations. A mass-balance model to predict indoor PAH concentrations was developed, along with estimated exposures and attributable lung cancer risks for residents in the Beijing region in 2006, with a 2-stage Monte Carlo simulation framework. The exposures and risks were split into three parts, based on the sources and places of exposure, to estimate the contributions of indoor and outdoor PAH sources and exposures, in order to better understand the source and place pattern of PAH exposure. PAHs bring considerable lung cancer risk to the population of Beijing region. The population attributable fraction (PAF) of lung cancer for Beijing's overall population is 2.99% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.71%-4.26%]. Median contribution of indoor exposure to outdoor-originated PAHs (OUT-in) is 78% (CI: 73%-81%) in the overall population, for 97% (CI: 94%-99%) of whom OUT-in is the largest contributor. Rural residents are facing considerable exposure to indoor-originated PAHs (IN-in), which dominates the total exposure in 12% (CI: 2%-24%) of the rural population. This model framework could be used in quantitative comparison of different interventions on exposure to PAHs as well as other airborne pollutants.

  16. Interdependency between Risk Assessments for Self and Other in the Field of Comparative Optimism: The Contribution of Response Times

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spitzenstetter, Florence; Schimchowitsch, Sarah

    2012-01-01

    By introducing a response-time measure in the field of comparative optimism, this study was designed to explore how people estimate risk to self and others depending on the evaluation order (self/other or other/self). Our results show the interdependency between self and other answers. Indeed, while response time for risk assessment for the self…

  17. Contribution of exposure, risk of crash and fatality to explain age- and sex-related differences in traffic-related cyclist mortality rates.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Ruiz, Virginia; Jiménez-Mejías, Eladio; Amezcua-Prieto, Carmen; Olmedo-Requena, Rocío; Luna-del-Castillo, Juan de Dios; Lardelli-Claret, Pablo

    2015-03-01

    This study was designed to quantify the percent contribution of exposure, risk of collision and fatality rate to the association of age and sex with the mortality rates among cyclists in Spain, and to track the changes in these contributions with time. Data were analyzed for 50,042 cyclists involved in road crashes in Spain from 1993 to 2011, and also for a subset of 13,119 non-infractor cyclists involved in collisions with a vehicle whose driver committed an infraction (used as a proxy sample of all cyclists on the road). We used decomposition and quasi-induced exposure methods to obtain the percent contributions of these three components to the mortality rate ratios for each age and sex group compared to males aged 25-34 years. Death rates increased with age, and the main component of this increase was fatality (around 70%). Among younger cyclists, however, the main component of increased death rates was risk of a collision. Males had higher death rates than females in every age group: this rate increased from 6.4 in the 5-14 year old group to 18.8 in the 65-79 year old group. Exposure, the main component of this increase, ranged between 70% and 90% in all age categories, although the fatality component also contributed to this increase. The contributions of exposure, risk of crash and fatality to cyclist death rates were strongly associated with age and sex. Young male cyclists were a high-risk group because all three components tended to increase their mortality rate. PMID:25658669

  18. Contribution of Genetic Background and Clinical Risk Factors to Low-Trauma Fractures in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Positive Persons: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Junier, Thomas; Rotger, Margalida; Biver, Emmanuel; Ledergerber, Bruno; Barceló, Catalina; Bartha, Istvan; Kovari, Helen; Schmid, Patrick; Fux, Christoph; Bernasconi, Enos; Brun del Re, Claudia; Weber, Rainer; Fellay, Jacques; Tarr, Philip E.

    2016-01-01

    Background. The impact of human genetic background on low-trauma fracture (LTF) risk has not been evaluated in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and clinical LTF risk factors. Methods. In the general population, 6 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associate with LTF through genome-wide association study. Using genome-wide SNP arrays and imputation, we genotyped these SNPs in HIV-positive, white Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We included 103 individuals with a first, physician-validated LTF and 206 controls matched on gender, whose duration of observation and whose antiretroviral therapy start dates were similar using incidence density sampling. Analyses of nongenetic LTF risk factors were based on 158 cases and 788 controls. Results. A genetic risk score built from the 6 LTF-associated SNPs did not associate with LTF risk, in both models including and not including parental hip fracture history. The contribution of clinical LTF risk factors was limited in our dataset. Conclusions. Genetic LTF markers with a modest effect size in the general population do not improve fracture prediction in persons with HIV, in whom clinical LTF risk factors are prevalent in both cases and controls. PMID:27419173

  19. Self-report depressive symptoms do not directly predict suicidality in nonclinical individuals: Contributions toward a more psychosocial approach to suicide risk.

    PubMed

    Campos, Rui C; Holden, Ronald R; Laranjeira, Patrícia; Troister, Talia; Oliveira, Ana Rita; Costa, Fátima; Abreu, Marta; Fresca, Natália

    2016-07-01

    Although suicidality is associated with mental illness in general and depression in particular, many depressed individuals do not attempt suicide and some individuals who attempt to or do die by suicide do not present depressive symptoms. This article aims to contribute to a more psychosocial approach to understanding suicide risk in nonclinical populations. In advocating a psychosocial perspective rather than a depression-focused approach, this article presents four diverse studies that demonstrate sampling and measurement invariance in findings across different populations and specific measures. Study 1 tests the mediation effects of 2 interpersonal variables, thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness, in the association between depressive symptoms and recent suicidality. Studies 2 and 3 evaluate the contribution of hopelessness and psychache, beyond depressive symptoms, to suicidality. Study 4 tests the contribution of life events behind depressive symptoms, and other relevant sociodemographic and clinical variables, to the estimation of "future suicidality." Overall, results demonstrate that depressive symptoms do not directly predict suicidality in nonclinical individuals, but that other psychosocial variables mediate the association between depressive symptoms and suicidality or predict suicidality when statistically controlling for depressive symptoms. The article contributes to understanding some of the nonpsychopathological factors that potentially link depressive symptoms to suicide risk and that might themselves contribute to suicidality, even when controlling for depressive symptoms. PMID:26890066

  20. Dietary patterns are associated with incident stroke and contribute to excess risk of stroke in Black Americans

    PubMed Central

    Judd, Suzanne E; Gutiérrez, Orlando M.; Newby, PK; Howard, George; Howard, Virginia J; Locher, Julie L; Kissela, Brett M; Shikany, James M

    2014-01-01

    Background and Purpose Black Americans and residents of the Southeastern United States, are at increased risk of stroke. Diet is one of many potential factors proposed that might explain these racial and regional disparities. Methods Between 2003–2007, the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study enrolled 30,239 black and white Americans aged 45 years or older. Dietary patterns were derived using factor analysis and foods from food frequency data. Incident strokes were adjudicated using medical records by a team of physicians. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine risk of stroke. Results Over 5.7 years, 490 incident strokes were observed. In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, greater adherence to the Plant-based pattern was associated with lower stroke risk (HR=0.71; 95% CI=0.56–0.91; ptrend=0.005). This association was attenuated after addition of income, education, total energy intake, smoking, and sedentary behavior. Participants with a higher adherence to the Southern pattern experienced a 39% increased risk of stroke (HR=1.39; 95% CI=1.05, 1.84), with a significant (p = 0.009) trend across quartiles. Including Southern pattern in the model mediated the black-white risk of stroke by 63%. Conclusions These data suggest that adherence to a Southern style diet may increase the risk of stroke while adherence to a more plant-based diet may reduce stroke risk. Given the consistency of finding a dietary impact on stroke risk across studies, discussing nutrition patterns during risk screening may be an important step in reducing stroke. PMID:24159061

  1. Dissociable contribution of nucleus accumbens and dorsolateral striatum to the acquisition of risk choice behavior in the rat.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jen-Hau; Liao, Ruey-Ming

    2015-12-01

    While a growing body of research has suggested that the mesocorticolimbic dopamine systems play a key role in decision making under risk, how the nucleus accumbens (NAC) is involved in the acquisition of risk choice behavior remains unclear. This study used a T-maze task to assess risk-based decision making in which the rat was required to assess the risk by choosing to enter either a small and certain reward arm or a large but uncertain reward arm of the maze. The latter option, when chosen, resulted in provision of 2, 4, or 8 sweeten pellets with a probability (p) of 0.5, 0.25, or 0.125, respectively. Thus the latter arm provided three different conditions of reward ratio, compared to the choice of former arm, which always provided 1 pellet with p=1. This risk choice task was then run with the expected value being equality between the binary choice options. The experimental rats first received an excitoneurotoxic lesion affecting either the NAC or the dorsolateral striatum (DLS) and this was followed by post-lesion behavioral examination. The sham lesion control rats acquired a stable risk choice with regard to each reward ratio over a 10-day test. The pattern of choice behavior appeared in risk-seeking when p=0.5 to obtain 2 pellets, and was risk-averse when larger reward resulted in lower p. The NAC lesion significantly disrupted the acquisition of the aforementioned risk choice behavior and apparently shifted the choice into a risk-averse style for all three reward ratios. No such effect was observed in the rats with DLS lesions. Neither the gross motor action nor the discrimination of different reward magnitudes was impaired by the lesions affecting either the NAC or DLS as assessed by an additional experiment. These findings suggest that firstly there is heterogeneity between NAC and DLS with respect to risk-based decision making, and that secondly the NAC is involved and critical to the acquisition of behavioral choice under risk, specially when the

  2. Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non-EPA Decision Makers (Final Contractor Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The purpose of this project, Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non EPA Decision Makers, is to describe how IRIS is used by a small number of representative groups of u...

  3. Contribution for tier 1 of the ecological risk assessment of Cunha Baixa uranium mine (Central Portugal): I soil chemical characterization.

    PubMed

    Pereira, R; Antunes, S C; Marques, S M; Gonçalves, F

    2008-02-15

    Within the tier 1 of a site specific risk assessment, the pseudo-total concentrations (extracted with aqua regia) and the potential mobile fractions of metals were determined to perform a preliminary evaluation of risks posed by contaminated soils from an abandoned uranium mine (Mangualde, Central Portugal). Considering the mobile fractions of metals, extracted with artificial rain water, aluminium and uranium were the most concerning elements, since their concentrations were above soil quality criteria values (SQGVs) established for both elements. However, according to the evaluation based on potential mobile fractions of elements, rather than on pseudo-total metal concentrations the risks were limited to sites within the exploitation area, where contamination derives mainly from past in-situ leaching activities of pore ore as well as from the deposition of sludge from the effluent pond. The exclusion of other sites under evaluation, from the risk assessment process, requires additional data provided by soil screening ecotoxicological assays. PMID:17919686

  4. Altered central nervous system processing of noxious stimuli contributes to decreased nociceptive responding in individuals at risk for hypertension.

    PubMed

    France, Christopher R; Froese, Shannon A; Stewart, Jesse C

    2002-07-01

    Previous evidence indicates that individuals with hypertension and those at increased risk for the disorder exhibit decreased pain perception. To test the hypothesis that attenuation of nociceptive processing in individuals at genetic risk for hypertension is related to differential central modulation of nociceptive transmission, the present study examined descending modulation, alpha-motoneuron excitability, and temporal summation of nociceptive input in young adults with and without a parental history of hypertension. Nociceptive flexion (NFR) and non-nociceptive Hoffman reflexes were assessed at rest and during performance of a mental arithmetic task. Temporal summation was assessed by examining NFR threshold in response to a series of five electrical pulses delivered at 2 Hz. Compared to participants without a parental history of hypertension, offspring of individuals with hypertension exhibited significantly higher NFR thresholds, suggesting that risk for hypertension may be associated with enhanced activation of central pain inhibition pathways. PMID:12098621

  5. Analytical testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flannelly, W. G.; Fabunmi, J. A.; Nagy, E. J.

    1981-01-01

    Analytical methods for combining flight acceleration and strain data with shake test mobility data to predict the effects of structural changes on flight vibrations and strains are presented. This integration of structural dynamic analysis with flight performance is referred to as analytical testing. The objective of this methodology is to analytically estimate the results of flight testing contemplated structural changes with minimum flying and change trials. The category of changes to the aircraft includes mass, stiffness, absorbers, isolators, and active suppressors. Examples of applying the analytical testing methodology using flight test and shake test data measured on an AH-1G helicopter are included. The techniques and procedures for vibration testing and modal analysis are also described.

  6. PBPK Models, BBDR Models, and Virtual Tissues: How Will They Contribute to the Use of Toxicity Pathways in Risk Assessment?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Accuracy in risk assessment, which is desirable in order to ensure protection of the public health while avoiding over-regulation of economically-important substances, requires quantitatively accurate, in vivo descriptions of dose-response and time-course behaviors. This level of...

  7. The Contribution of Parenting Practices and Parent Emotion Factors in Children at Risk for Disruptive Behavior Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duncombe, Melissa E.; Havighurst, Sophie S.; Holland, Kerry A.; Frankling, Emma J.

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the impact of different parenting characteristics on child disruptive behavior and emotional regulation among a sample of at-risk children. The sample consisted of 373 Australian 5- to 9-year-old children who were screened for serious behavior problems. Seven parenting variables based on self-report were…

  8. SPECIATION OF ARSENIC IN EDIBLE BIOTA TO SUPPORT RISK ASSESSMENT DETERMINATION OF RELATIVE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION FOR ARSENIC

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Office of Research and Development has designated the study of arsenic as a high priority research area because of the health risk associated from exposure to this element. Present monitoring efforts are primarily focused on total concentration of arsenic in drinking water. ...

  9. The Contribution of Personality Traits, Motivation, Academic Risk-Taking and Metacognition to the Creative Ability in Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erbas, Ayhan Kursat; Bas, Selda

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which personality traits, motivation, academic risk-taking, and metacognition explain the mathematical creative ability of high school students. The participants were 217 9th-grade students that were exceptionally high achievers. The participants responded to a set of measures about…

  10. Genetic polymorphism at codon 546 of the human RAD17 contributes to the risk for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Yasuda, Yukiko; Sakai, Akiko; Ito, Sachio; Mita, Yuichiro; Sonoyama, Takayuki; Tanabe, Shunsuke; Shirakawa, Yasuhiro; Naomoto, Yoshio; Katayama, Hiroshi; Shimizu, Kenji

    2016-01-01

    Human RAD17, a human homolog of the Schizosaccharomyces pombe cell cycle checkpoint gene RAD17, plays a significant role in activating checkpoint signals in response to DNA damage. We evaluated the association of hRAD17 Leu546Arg (rs1045051), a missense single nucleotide polymorphism, with the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in relation to smoking and alcohol consumption history in 154 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma male patients and 695 cancer-free male controls by a case-control study conducted in Japan. The results showed that the hRAD17 Arg/Arg genotype compared to the Leu/Leu and Leu/Arg genotypes was significantly associated with the risk of the esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with an adjusted odds ratios of 2.22 (95% CI: 1.19-4.16 P=0.013). In stratified studies, the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma was markedly higher in light drinkers (less than 23 g ethanol/day) with the Arg/Arg genotype than in heavy drinkers (excess of 23 g ethanol/day) with the Arg/Arg genotype (OR=2.83, 95% CI: 1.05-7.61, P=0.04). We concluded that the genetic variant of hRAD17 Leu546Arg polymorphism exerts a significant effect on esophageal squamous cell carcinoma risk among Japanese men. PMID:27186329