A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

PubMed

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

Predictive Analytics for Identification of Patients at Risk for QT Interval Prolongation - A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Tomaselli Muensterman, Elena; Tisdale, James E

2018-06-08

Prolongation of the heart rate-corrected QT (QTc) interval increases the risk for torsades de pointes (TdP), a potentially fatal arrhythmia. The likelihood of TdP is higher in patients with risk factors, which include female sex, older age, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, hypokalemia, hypomagnesemia, concomitant administration of ≥ 2 QTc interval-prolonging medications, among others. Assessment and quantification of risk factors may facilitate prediction of patients at highest risk for developing QTc interval prolongation and TdP. Investigators have utilized the field of predictive analytics, which generates predictions using techniques including data mining, modeling, machine learning, and others, to develop methods of risk quantification and prediction of QTc interval prolongation. Predictive analytics have also been incorporated into clinical decision support (CDS) tools to alert clinicians regarding patients at increased risk of developing QTc interval prolongation. The objectives of this paper are to assess the effectiveness of predictive analytics for identification of patients at risk of drug-induced QTc interval prolongation, and to discuss the efficacy of incorporation of predictive analytics into CDS tools in clinical practice. A systematic review of English language articles (human subjects only) was performed, yielding 57 articles, with an additional 4 articles identified from other sources; a total of 10 articles were included in this review. Risk scores for QTc interval prolongation have been developed in various patient populations including those in cardiac intensive care units (ICUs) and in broader populations of hospitalized or health system patients. One group developed a risk score that includes information regarding genetic polymorphisms; this score significantly predicted TdP. Development of QTc interval prolongation risk prediction models and incorporation of these models into CDS tools reduces the risk of QTc interval

Enhancing Treatment Outcome of Patients at Risk of Treatment Failure: Meta-Analytic and Mega-Analytic Review of a Psychotherapy Quality Assurance System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shimokawa, Kenichi; Lambert, Michael J.; Smart, David W.

2010-01-01

Objective: Outcome research has documented worsening among a minority of the patient population (5% to 10%). In this study, we conducted a meta-analytic and mega-analytic review of a psychotherapy quality assurance system intended to enhance outcomes in patients at risk of treatment failure. Method: Original data from six major studies conducted…

Quantifying risks with exact analytical solutions of derivative pricing distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kun; Liu, Jing; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

2017-04-01

Derivative (i.e. option) pricing is essential for modern financial instrumentations. Despite of the previous efforts, the exact analytical forms of the derivative pricing distributions are still challenging to obtain. In this study, we established a quantitative framework using path integrals to obtain the exact analytical solutions of the statistical distribution for bond and bond option pricing for the Vasicek model. We discuss the importance of statistical fluctuations away from the expected option pricing characterized by the distribution tail and their associations to value at risk (VaR). The framework established here is general and can be applied to other financial derivatives for quantifying the underlying statistical distributions.

Rehabilitation Risk Management: Enabling Data Analytics with Quantified Self and Smart Home Data.

PubMed

Hamper, Andreas; Eigner, Isabella; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini; Bodendorf, Freimut

2017-01-01

A variety of acute and chronic diseases require rehabilitation at home after treatment. Outpatient rehabilitation is crucial for the quality of the medical outcome but is mainly performed without medical supervision. Non-Compliance can lead to severe health risks and readmission to the hospital. While the patient is closely monitored in the hospital, methods and technologies to identify risks at home have to be developed. We analyze state-of-the-art monitoring systems and technologies and show possibilities to transfer these technologies into rehabilitation monitoring. For this purpose, we analyze sensor technology from the field of Quantified Self and Smart Homes. The available sensor data from this consumer grade technology is summarized to give an overview of the possibilities for medical data analytics. Subsequently, we show a conceptual roadmap to transfer data analytics methods to sensor based rehabilitation risk management.

Recent Development in Big Data Analytics for Business Operations and Risk Management.

PubMed

Choi, Tsan-Ming; Chan, Hing Kai; Yue, Xiaohang

2017-01-01

"Big data" is an emerging topic and has attracted the attention of many researchers and practitioners in industrial systems engineering and cybernetics. Big data analytics would definitely lead to valuable knowledge for many organizations. Business operations and risk management can be a beneficiary as there are many data collection channels in the related industrial systems (e.g., wireless sensor networks, Internet-based systems, etc.). Big data research, however, is still in its infancy. Its focus is rather unclear and related studies are not well amalgamated. This paper aims to present the challenges and opportunities of big data analytics in this unique application domain. Technological development and advances for industrial-based business systems, reliability and security of industrial systems, and their operational risk management are examined. Important areas for future research are also discussed and revealed.

Bimodal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (BFAHP) for coronary heart disease risk assessment.

PubMed

Sabahi, Farnaz

2018-04-04

Rooted deeply in medical multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM), risk assessment is very important especially when applied to the risk of being affected by deadly diseases such as coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD risk assessment is a stochastic, uncertain, and highly dynamic process influenced by various known and unknown variables. In recent years, there has been a great interest in fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), a popular methodology for dealing with uncertainty in MCDM. This paper proposes a new FAHP, bimodal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (BFAHP) that augments two aspects of knowledge, probability and validity, to fuzzy numbers to better deal with uncertainty. In BFAHP, fuzzy validity is computed by aggregating the validities of relevant risk factors based on expert knowledge and collective intelligence. By considering both soft and statistical data, we compute the fuzzy probability of risk factors using the Bayesian formulation. In BFAHP approach, these fuzzy validities and fuzzy probabilities are used to construct a reciprocal comparison matrix. We then aggregate fuzzy probabilities and fuzzy validities in a pairwise manner for each risk factor and each alternative. BFAHP decides about being affected and not being affected by ranking of high and low risks. For evaluation, the proposed approach is applied to the risk of being affected by CHD using a real dataset of 152 patients of Iranian hospitals. Simulation results confirm that adding validity in a fuzzy manner can accrue more confidence of results and clinically useful especially in the face of incomplete information when compared with actual results. Applying the proposed BFAHP on CHD risk assessment of the dataset, it yields high accuracy rate above 85% for correct prediction. In addition, this paper recognizes that the risk factors of diastolic blood pressure in men and high-density lipoprotein in women are more important in CHD than other risk factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All

Novel predictive models for metabolic syndrome risk: a "big data" analytic approach.

PubMed

Steinberg, Gregory B; Church, Bruce W; McCall, Carol J; Scott, Adam B; Kalis, Brian P

2014-06-01

We applied a proprietary "big data" analytic platform--Reverse Engineering and Forward Simulation (REFS)--to dimensions of metabolic syndrome extracted from a large data set compiled from Aetna's databases for 1 large national customer. Our goals were to accurately predict subsequent risk of metabolic syndrome and its various factors on both a population and individual level. The study data set included demographic, medical claim, pharmacy claim, laboratory test, and biometric screening results for 36,944 individuals. The platform reverse-engineered functional models of systems from diverse and large data sources and provided a simulation framework for insight generation. The platform interrogated data sets from the results of 2 Comprehensive Metabolic Syndrome Screenings (CMSSs) as well as complete coverage records; complete data from medical claims, pharmacy claims, and lab results for 2010 and 2011; and responses to health risk assessment questions. The platform predicted subsequent risk of metabolic syndrome, both overall and by risk factor, on population and individual levels, with ROC/AUC varying from 0.80 to 0.88. We demonstrated that improving waist circumference and blood glucose yielded the largest benefits on subsequent risk and medical costs. We also showed that adherence to prescribed medications and, particularly, adherence to routine scheduled outpatient doctor visits, reduced subsequent risk. The platform generated individualized insights using available heterogeneous data within 3 months. The accuracy and short speed to insight with this type of analytic platform allowed Aetna to develop targeted cost-effective care management programs for individuals with or at risk for metabolic syndrome.

Visual Analytics 101

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scholtz, Jean; Burtner, Edwin R.; Cook, Kristin A.

This course will introduce the field of Visual Analytics to HCI researchers and practitioners highlighting the contributions they can make to this field. Topics will include a definition of visual analytics along with examples of current systems, types of tasks and end users, issues in defining user requirements, design of visualizations and interactions, guidelines and heuristics, the current state of user-centered evaluations, and metrics for evaluation. We encourage designers, HCI researchers, and HCI practitioners to attend to learn how their skills can contribute to advancing the state of the art of visual analytics

Experimental and analytical studies for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

Various experimental and analytical studies performed for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment program are described with emphasis on carbon fiber characteristics, sensitivity of electrical equipment and components to shorting or arcing by carbon fibers, attenuation effect of carbon fibers on aircraft landing aids, impact of carbon fibers on industrial facilities. A simple method of estimating damage from airborne carbon fibers is presented.

Contemporary Privacy Theory Contributions to Learning Analytics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heath, Jennifer

2014-01-01

With the continued adoption of learning analytics in higher education institutions, vast volumes of data are generated and "big data" related issues, including privacy, emerge. Privacy is an ill-defined concept and subject to various interpretations and perspectives, including those of philosophers, lawyers, and information systems…

Relative contributions of four exposure pathways to influenza infection risk.

PubMed

Nicas, Mark; Jones, Rachael M

2009-09-01

The relative contribution of four influenza virus exposure pathways-(1) virus-contaminated hand contact with facial membranes, (2) inhalation of respirable cough particles, (3) inhalation of inspirable cough particles, and (4) spray of cough droplets onto facial membranes-must be quantified to determine the potential efficacy of nonpharmaceutical interventions of transmission. We used a mathematical model to estimate the relative contributions of the four pathways to infection risk in the context of a person attending a bed-ridden family member ill with influenza. Considering the uncertainties in the sparse human subject influenza dose-response data, we assumed alternative ratios of 3,200:1 and 1:1 for the infectivity of inhaled respirable virus to intranasally instilled virus. For the 3,200:1 ratio, pathways (1), (2), and (4) contribute substantially to influenza risk: at a virus saliva concentration of 10(6) mL(-1), pathways (1), (2), (3), and (4) contribute, respectively, 31%, 17%, 0.52%, and 52% of the infection risk. With increasing virus concentrations, pathway (2) increases in importance, while pathway (4) decreases in importance. In contrast, for the 1:1 infectivity ratio, pathway (1) is the most important overall: at a virus saliva concentration of 10(6) mL(-1), pathways (1), (2), (3), and (4) contribute, respectively, 93%, 0.037%, 3.3%, and 3.7% of the infection risk. With increasing virus concentrations, pathway (3) increases in importance, while pathway (4) decreases in importance. Given the sparse knowledge concerning influenza dose and infectivity via different exposure pathways, nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza should simultaneously address potential exposure via hand contact to the face, inhalation, and droplet spray.

An audit of the contribution to post-mortem examination diagnosis of individual analyte results obtained from biochemical analysis of the vitreous.

PubMed

Mitchell, Rebecca; Charlwood, Cheryl; Thomas, Sunethra Devika; Bellis, Maria; Langlois, Neil E I

2013-12-01

Biochemical analysis of the vitreous humor from the eye is an accepted accessory test for post-mortem investigation of cause of death. Modern biochemical analyzers allow testing of a range of analytes from a sample. However, it is not clear which analytes should be requested in order to prevent unnecessary testing (and expense). The means and standard deviation of the values obtained from analysis of the vitreous humor for sodium, potassium, chloride, osmolality, glucose, ketones (β-hydroxybutyrate), creatinine, urea, calcium, lactate, and ammonia were calculated from which the contribution of each analyte was reviewed in the context of post-mortem findings and final cause of death. For sodium 32 cases were regarded as high (more than one standard deviation above the mean), from which 9 contributed to post-mortem diagnosis [drowning (4), heat related death (2), diabetic hyperglycemia (2), and dehydration (1)], but 25 low values (greater than one standard deviation below the mean) made no contribution. For chloride 29 high values contributed to 4 cases--3 drowning and 1 heat-related, but these were all previously identified by a high sodium level. There were 29 high and 35 low potassium values, none of which contributed to determining the final cause of death. Of 22 high values of creatinine, 12 contributed to a diagnosis of renal failure. From 32 high values of urea, 18 contributed to 16 cases of renal failure (2 associated with diabetic hyperglycemia), 1 heat-related death, and one case with dehydration. Osmolarity contributed to 12 cases (5 heat-related, 4 diabetes, 2 renal failure, and 1 dehydration) from 36 high values. There was no contribution from 32 high values and 19 low values of calcium and there was no contribution from 4 high and 2 low values of ammonia. There were 11 high values of glucose, which contributed to the diagnosis of 6 cases of diabetic hyperglycemia and 21 high ketone levels contributed to 8 cases: 4 diabetic ketosis, 3 hypothermia, 3

Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Layton, J Bradley

2010-07-27

The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44). The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review

PubMed Central

Layton, J. Bradley

2010-01-01

Background The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. Objectives This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data Extraction Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Results Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44). Conclusions The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20668659

Life cycle management of analytical methods.

PubMed

Parr, Maria Kristina; Schmidt, Alexander H

2018-01-05

In modern process management, the life cycle concept gains more and more importance. It focusses on the total costs of the process from invest to operation and finally retirement. Also for analytical procedures an increasing interest for this concept exists in the recent years. The life cycle of an analytical method consists of design, development, validation (including instrumental qualification, continuous method performance verification and method transfer) and finally retirement of the method. It appears, that also regulatory bodies have increased their awareness on life cycle management for analytical methods. Thus, the International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH), as well as the United States Pharmacopeial Forum discuss the enrollment of new guidelines that include life cycle management of analytical methods. The US Pharmacopeia (USP) Validation and Verification expert panel already proposed a new General Chapter 〈1220〉 "The Analytical Procedure Lifecycle" for integration into USP. Furthermore, also in the non-regulated environment a growing interest on life cycle management is seen. Quality-by-design based method development results in increased method robustness. Thereby a decreased effort is needed for method performance verification, and post-approval changes as well as minimized risk of method related out-of-specification results. This strongly contributes to reduced costs of the method during its life cycle. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An analytical approach to separate climate and human contributions to basin streamflow variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Changbin; Wang, Liuming; Wanrui, Wang; Qi, Jiaguo; Linshan, Yang; Zhang, Yuan; Lei, Wu; Cui, Xia; Wang, Peng

2018-04-01

Climate variability and anthropogenic regulations are two interwoven factors in the ecohydrologic system across large basins. Understanding the roles that these two factors play under various hydrologic conditions is of great significance for basin hydrology and sustainable water utilization. In this study, we present an analytical approach based on coupling water balance method and Budyko hypothesis to derive effectiveness coefficients (ECs) of climate change, as a way to disentangle contributions of it and human activities to the variability of river discharges under different hydro-transitional situations. The climate dominated streamflow change (ΔQc) by EC approach was compared with those deduced by the elasticity method and sensitivity index. The results suggest that the EC approach is valid and applicable for hydrologic study at large basin scale. Analyses of various scenarios revealed that contributions of climate change and human activities to river discharge variation differed among the regions of the study area. Over the past several decades, climate change dominated hydro-transitions from dry to wet, while human activities played key roles in the reduction of streamflow during wet to dry periods. Remarkable decline of discharge in upstream was mainly due to human interventions, although climate contributed more to runoff increasing during dry periods in the semi-arid downstream. Induced effectiveness on streamflow changes indicated a contribution ratio of 49% for climate and 51% for human activities at the basin scale from 1956 to 2015. The mathematic derivation based simple approach, together with the case example of temporal segmentation and spatial zoning, could help people understand variation of river discharge with more details at a large basin scale under the background of climate change and human regulations.

Substantial contribution of extrinsic risk factors to cancer development

PubMed Central

Wu, Song; Powers, Scott; Zhu, Wei; Hannun, Yusuf A

2015-01-01

Summary Recent research has highlighted a strong correlation between tissue-specific cancer risk and the lifetime number of tissue-specific stem cell divisions. Whether such correlation implies a high unavoidable intrinsic cancer risk has become a key public health debate with dissemination of the ‘bad luck’ hypothesis. Here we provide evidence that intrinsic risk factors contribute only modestly (<10~30%) to cancer development. First, we demonstrate that the correlation between stem-cell division and cancer risk does not distinguish between the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Next, we show that intrinsic risk is better estimated by the lower bound risk controlling for total stem cell divisions. Finally, we show that the rates of endogenous mutation accumulation by intrinsic processes are not sufficient to account for the observed cancer risks. Collectively, we conclude that cancer risk is heavily influenced by extrinsic factors. These results carry immense consequences for strategizing cancer prevention, research, and public health. PMID:26675728

Food risk perceptions, gender, and individual differences in avoidance and approach motivation, intuitive and analytic thinking styles, and anxiety.

PubMed

Leikas, Sointu; Lindeman, Marjaana; Roininen, Katariina; Lähteenmäki, Liisa

2007-03-01

Risks appear to be perceived in two different ways, affectively and rationally. Finnish adult internet users were contacted via e-mail and asked to fill an internet questionnaire consisting of questions of food risks and measures of avoidance and approach motivation, analytic and intuitive information processing style, trait anxiety, and gender in order to find out (1) whether food risks are perceived two-dimensionally, (2) how individual differences in motivation, information processing, and anxiety are associated with the different dimensions of food risk perceptions, and (3) whether gender moderates these associations. The data were analyzed by factor, correlation and regression analyses. Three factors emerged: risk scariness, risk likelihood, and risks of cardiovascular disease. Personality and gender x personality interactions predicted food risk perceptions. Results showed that food risk perceptions generally form two dimensions; scariness and likelihood, but that this may depend on the nature of the risk. In addition, results imply that individuals with high avoidance motivation perceive food risks as scarier and more likely than others, and that individuals with an analytic information processing style perceive food risks as less likely than others. Trait anxiety seems to be associated with higher food risk perceptions only among men.

Phenology Information Contributes to Reduce Temporal Basis Risk in Agricultural Weather Index Insurance.

PubMed

Dalhaus, Tobias; Musshoff, Oliver; Finger, Robert

2018-01-08

Weather risks are an essential and increasingly important driver of agricultural income volatility. Agricultural insurances contribute to support farmers to cope with these risks. Among these insurances, weather index insurances (WII) are an innovative tool to cope with climatic risks in agriculture. Using WII, farmers receive an indemnification not based on actual yield reductions but are compensated based on a measured weather index, such as rainfall at a nearby weather station. The discrepancy between experienced losses and actual indemnification, basis risk, is a key challenge. In particular, specifications of WII used so far do not capture critical plant growth phases adequately. Here, we contribute to reduce basis risk by proposing novel procedures how occurrence dates and shifts of growth phases over time and space can be considered and test for their risk reducing potential. Our empirical example addresses drought risks in the critical growth phase around the anthesis stage in winter wheat production in Germany. We find spatially explicit, public and open databases of phenology reports to contribute to reduce basis risk and thus improve the attractiveness of WII. In contrast, we find growth stage modelling based on growing degree days (thermal time) not to result in significant improvements.

Does Couple and Relationship Education Work for Individuals in Stepfamilies? A Meta-Analytic Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucier-Greer, Mallory; Adler-Baeder, Francesca

2012-01-01

Recent meta-analytic efforts have documented how couple and relationship education (CRE) programs promote healthy relationship and family functioning. The current meta-analysis contributes to this body of literature by examining stepfamily couples, an at-risk, subpopulation of participants, and assessing the effectiveness of CRE programs for…

Understanding suicide risk within the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) framework: A meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Glenn, Catherine R; Kleiman, Evan M; Cha, Christine B; Deming, Charlene A; Franklin, Joseph C; Nock, Matthew K

2018-01-01

The field is in need of novel and transdiagnostic risk factors for suicide. The National Institute of Mental Health's Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) provides a framework that may help advance research on suicidal behavior. We conducted a meta-analytic review of existing prospective risk and protective factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors (ideation, attempts, and deaths) that fall within one of the five RDoC domains or relate to a prominent suicide theory. Predictors were selected from a database of 4,082 prospective risk and protective factors for suicide outcomes. A total of 460 predictors met inclusion criteria for this meta-analytic review and most examined risk (vs. protective) factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. The overall effect of risk factors was statistically significant, but relatively small, in predicting suicide ideation (weighted mean odds ratio: wOR = 1.72; 95% CI: 1.59-1.87), suicide attempt (wOR = 1.66 [1.57-1.76), and suicide death (wOR = 1.41 [1.24-1.60]). Across all suicide outcomes, most risk factors related to the Negative Valence Systems domain, although effect sizes were of similar magnitude across RDoC domains. This study demonstrated that the RDoC framework provides a novel and promising approach to suicide research; however, relatively few studies of suicidal behavior fit within this framework. Future studies must go beyond the "usual suspects" of suicide risk factors (e.g., mental disorders, sociodemographics) to understand the processes that combine to lead to this deadly outcome. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Usefulness of Analytical Research: Rethinking Analytical R&D&T Strategies.

PubMed

Valcárcel, Miguel

2017-11-07

This Perspective is intended to help foster true innovation in Research & Development & Transfer (R&D&T) in Analytical Chemistry in the form of advances that are primarily useful for analytical purposes rather than solely for publishing. Devising effective means to strengthen the crucial contribution of Analytical Chemistry to progress in Chemistry, Science & Technology, and Society requires carefully examining the present status of our discipline and also identifying internal and external driving forces with a potential adverse impact on its development. The diagnostic process should be followed by administration of an effective therapy and supported by adoption of a theragnostic strategy if Analytical Chemistry is to enjoy a better future.

Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

2013-11-01

We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

PubMed

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic contributions to antisocial personality and behavior: a meta-analytic review from an evolutionary perspective.

PubMed

Ferguson, Christopher J

2010-01-01

Evidence from behavioral genetics supports the conclusion that a significant amount of the variance in antisocial personality and behavior (APB) is due to genetic contributions. Many scientific fields such as psychology, medicine, and criminal justice struggle to incorporate this information with preexisting paradigms that focused exclusively on external or learned etiology of antisocial behavior. The current paper presents a meta-analytic review of behavioral genetic etiological studies of APB. Results indicated that 56% of the variance in APB can be explained through genetic influences, with 11% due to shared non-genetic influences, and 31% due to unique non-genetic influences. This data is discussed in relation to evolutionary psychological theory.

Functional-analytical capabilities of GIS technology in the study of water use risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nevidimova, O. G.; Yankovich, E. P.; Yankovich, K. S.

2015-02-01

Regional security aspects of economic activities are of great importance for legal regulation in environmental management. This has become a critical issue due to climate change, especially in regions where severe climate conditions have a great impact on almost all types of natural resource uses. A detailed analysis of climate and hydrological situation in Tomsk Oblast considering water use risks was carried out. Based on developed author's techniques an informational and analytical database was created using ArcGIS software platform, which combines statistical (quantitative) and spatial characteristics of natural hazards and socio-economic factors. This system was employed to perform areal zoning according to the degree of water use risks involved.

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

PubMed Central

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Stahl, Daniel; Borgwardt, Stephan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana O.; Woods, Scott W.; McGlashan, Thomas; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R.; McGuire, Philip

2016-01-01

Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis.

PubMed

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Stahl, Daniel; Borgwardt, Stephan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana O; Woods, Scott W; McGlashan, Thomas; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R; McGuire, Philip

2016-05-01

The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR-). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR-: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%-24%, I (2) = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = -.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = -1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = -.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38 monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38 monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis. © The Author 2015. Published by

ICDA: A Platform for Intelligent Care Delivery Analytics

PubMed Central

Gotz, David; Stavropoulos, Harry; Sun, Jimeng; Wang, Fei

2012-01-01

The identification of high-risk patients is a critical component in improving patient outcomes and managing costs. This paper describes the Intelligent Care Delivery Analytics platform (ICDA), a system which enables risk assessment analytics that process large collections of dynamic electronic medical data to identify at-risk patients. ICDA works by ingesting large volumes of data into a common data model, then orchestrating a collection of analytics that identify at-risk patients. It also provides an interactive environment through which users can access and review the analytics results. In addition, ICDA provides APIs via which analytics results can be retrieved to surface in external applications. A detailed review of ICDA’s architecture is provided. Descriptions of four use cases are included to illustrate ICDA’s application within two different data environments. These use cases showcase the system’s flexibility and exemplify the types of analytics it enables. PMID:23304296

Progressive Visual Analytics: User-Driven Visual Exploration of In-Progress Analytics.

PubMed

Stolper, Charles D; Perer, Adam; Gotz, David

2014-12-01

As datasets grow and analytic algorithms become more complex, the typical workflow of analysts launching an analytic, waiting for it to complete, inspecting the results, and then re-Iaunching the computation with adjusted parameters is not realistic for many real-world tasks. This paper presents an alternative workflow, progressive visual analytics, which enables an analyst to inspect partial results of an algorithm as they become available and interact with the algorithm to prioritize subspaces of interest. Progressive visual analytics depends on adapting analytical algorithms to produce meaningful partial results and enable analyst intervention without sacrificing computational speed. The paradigm also depends on adapting information visualization techniques to incorporate the constantly refining results without overwhelming analysts and provide interactions to support an analyst directing the analytic. The contributions of this paper include: a description of the progressive visual analytics paradigm; design goals for both the algorithms and visualizations in progressive visual analytics systems; an example progressive visual analytics system (Progressive Insights) for analyzing common patterns in a collection of event sequences; and an evaluation of Progressive Insights and the progressive visual analytics paradigm by clinical researchers analyzing electronic medical records.

Subject-enabled analytics model on measurement statistics in health risk expert system for public health informatics.

PubMed

Chung, Chi-Jung; Kuo, Yu-Chen; Hsieh, Yun-Yu; Li, Tsai-Chung; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Liang, Wen-Miin; Liao, Li-Na; Li, Chia-Ing; Lin, Hsueh-Chun

2017-11-01

This study applied open source technology to establish a subject-enabled analytics model that can enhance measurement statistics of case studies with the public health data in cloud computing. The infrastructure of the proposed model comprises three domains: 1) the health measurement data warehouse (HMDW) for the case study repository, 2) the self-developed modules of online health risk information statistics (HRIStat) for cloud computing, and 3) the prototype of a Web-based process automation system in statistics (PASIS) for the health risk assessment of case studies with subject-enabled evaluation. The system design employed freeware including Java applications, MySQL, and R packages to drive a health risk expert system (HRES). In the design, the HRIStat modules enforce the typical analytics methods for biomedical statistics, and the PASIS interfaces enable process automation of the HRES for cloud computing. The Web-based model supports both modes, step-by-step analysis and auto-computing process, respectively for preliminary evaluation and real time computation. The proposed model was evaluated by computing prior researches in relation to the epidemiological measurement of diseases that were caused by either heavy metal exposures in the environment or clinical complications in hospital. The simulation validity was approved by the commercial statistics software. The model was installed in a stand-alone computer and in a cloud-server workstation to verify computing performance for a data amount of more than 230K sets. Both setups reached efficiency of about 10 5 sets per second. The Web-based PASIS interface can be used for cloud computing, and the HRIStat module can be flexibly expanded with advanced subjects for measurement statistics. The analytics procedure of the HRES prototype is capable of providing assessment criteria prior to estimating the potential risk to public health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systemic inflammation as a predictor of brain aging: Contributions of physical activity, metabolic risk, and genetic risk.

PubMed

Corlier, Fabian; Hafzalla, George; Faskowitz, Joshua; Kuller, Lewis H; Becker, James T; Lopez, Oscar L; Thompson, Paul M; Braskie, Meredith N

2018-05-15

Inflammatory processes may contribute to risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and age-related brain degeneration. Metabolic and genetic risk factors, and physical activity may, in turn, influence these inflammatory processes. Some of these risk factors are modifiable, and interact with each other. Understanding how these processes together relate to brain aging will help to inform future interventions to treat or prevent cognitive decline. We used brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to scan 335 older adult humans (mean age 77.3 ± 3.4 years) who remained non-demented for the duration of the 9-year longitudinal study. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) in a subset of 226 adults to evaluate whether measures of baseline peripheral inflammation (serum C-reactive protein levels; CRP), mediated the baseline contributions of genetic and metabolic risk, and physical activity, to regional cortical thickness in AD-relevant brain regions at study year 9. We found that both baseline metabolic risk and AD risk variant apolipoprotein E ε4 (APOE4), modulated baseline serum CRP. Higher baseline CRP levels, in turn, predicted thinner regional cortex at year 9, and mediated an effect between higher metabolic risk and thinner cortex in those regions. A higher polygenic risk score composed of variants in immune-associated AD risk genes (other than APOE) was associated with thinner regional cortex. However, CRP levels did not mediate this effect, suggesting that other mechanisms may be responsible for the elevated AD risk. We found interactions between genetic and environmental factors and structural brain health. Our findings support the role of metabolic risk and peripheral inflammation in age-related brain decline. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

PubMed Central

Sun, Xin; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

2013-01-01

This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947

Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

PubMed

Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

2013-01-01

This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

Real social analytics: A contribution towards a phenomenology of a digital world.

PubMed

Couldry, Nick; Fotopoulou, Aristea; Dickens, Luke

2016-03-01

This article argues against the assumption that agency and reflexivity disappear in an age of 'algorithmic power' (Lash 2007). Following the suggestions of Beer (2009), it proposes that, far from disappearing, new forms of agency and reflexivity around the embedding in everyday practice of not only algorithms but also analytics more broadly are emerging, as social actors continue to pursue their social ends but mediated through digital interfaces: this is the consequence of many social actors now needing their digital presence, regardless of whether they want this, to be measured and counted. The article proposes 'social analytics' as a new topic for sociology: the sociological study of social actors' uses of analytics not for the sake of measurement itself (or to make profit from measurement) but in order to fulfil better their social ends through an enhancement of their digital presence. The article places social analytics in the context of earlier debates about categorization, algorithmic power, and self-presentation online, and describes in detail a case study with a UK community organization which generated the social analytics approach. The article concludes with reflections on the implications of this approach for further sociological fieldwork in a digital world. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2016.

Tissue-Level Mechanical Properties of Bone Contributing to Fracture Risk.

PubMed

Nyman, Jeffry S; Granke, Mathilde; Singleton, Robert C; Pharr, George M

2016-08-01

Tissue-level mechanical properties characterize mechanical behavior independently of microscopic porosity. Specifically, quasi-static nanoindentation provides measurements of modulus (stiffness) and hardness (resistance to yielding) of tissue at the length scale of the lamella, while dynamic nanoindentation assesses time-dependent behavior in the form of storage modulus (stiffness), loss modulus (dampening), and loss factor (ratio of the two). While these properties are useful in establishing how a gene, signaling pathway, or disease of interest affects bone tissue, they generally do not vary with aging after skeletal maturation or with osteoporosis. Heterogeneity in tissue-level mechanical properties or in compositional properties may contribute to fracture risk, but a consensus on whether the contribution is negative or positive has not emerged. In vivo indentation of bone tissue is now possible, and the mechanical resistance to microindentation has the potential for improving fracture risk assessment, though determinants are currently unknown.

Tissue-level Mechanical Properties of Bone Contributing to Fracture Risk

PubMed Central

Nyman, Jeffry S.; Granke, Mathilde; Singleton, Robert C.; Pharr, George M.

2016-01-01

Tissue-level mechanical properties characterize mechanical behavior independently of microscopic porosity. Specifically, quasi-static nanoindentation provides measurements of modulus (stiffness) and hardness (resistance to yielding) of tissue at the length scale of the lamella, while dynamic nanoindentation assesses time-dependent behavior in the form of storage modulus (stiffness), loss modulus (dampening), and loss factor (ratio of the two). While these properties are useful in establishing how a gene, signaling pathway, or disease of interest affects bone tissue, they generally do not vary with aging after skeletal maturation or with osteoporosis. Heterogeneity in tissue-level mechanical properties or in compositional properties may contribute to fracture risk, but a consensus on whether the contribution is negative or positive has not emerged. In vivo indentation of bone tissue is now possible, and the mechanical resistance to microindentation has the potential for improving fracture risk assessment, though determinants are currently unknown. PMID:27263108

Mitigating Sports Injury Risks Using Internet of Things and Analytics Approaches.

PubMed

Wilkerson, Gary B; Gupta, Ashish; Colston, Marisa A

2018-03-12

Sport injuries restrict participation, impose a substantial economic burden, and can have persisting adverse effects on health-related quality of life. The effective use of Internet of Things (IoT), when combined with analytics approaches, can improve player safety through identification of injury risk factors that can be addressed by targeted risk reduction training activities. Use of IoT devices can facilitate highly efficient quantification of relevant functional capabilities prior to sport participation, which could substantially advance the prevailing sport injury management paradigm. This study introduces a framework for using sensor-derived IoT data to supplement other data for objective estimation of each individual college football player's level of injury risk, which is an approach to injury prevention that has not been previously reported. A cohort of 45 NCAA Division I-FCS college players provided data in the form of self-ratings of persisting effects of previous injuries and single-leg postural stability test. Instantaneous change in body mass acceleration (jerk) during the test was quantified by a smartphone accelerometer, with data wirelessly transmitted to a secure cloud server. Injuries sustained from the beginning of practice sessions until the end of the 13-game season were documented, along with the number of games played by each athlete over the course of a 13-game season. Results demonstrate a strong prediction model. Our approach may have strong relevance to the estimation of injury risk for other physically demanding activities. Clearly, there is great potential for improvement of injury prevention initiatives through identification of individual athletes who possess elevated injury risk and targeted interventions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Is food allergen analysis flawed? Health and supply chain risks and a proposed framework to address urgent analytical needs.

PubMed

Walker, M J; Burns, D T; Elliott, C T; Gowland, M H; Mills, E N Clare

2016-01-07

Food allergy is an increasing problem for those affected, their families or carers, the food industry and for regulators. The food supply chain is highly vulnerable to fraud involving food allergens, risking fatalities and severe reputational damage to the food industry. Many facets are being pursued to ameliorate the difficulties including better food labelling and the concept of thresholds of elicitation of allergy symptoms as risk management tools. These efforts depend to a high degree on the ability reliably to detect and quantify food allergens; yet all current analytical approaches exhibit severe deficiencies that jeopardise accurate results being produced particularly in terms of the risks of false positive and false negative reporting. If we fail to realise the promise of current risk assessment and risk management of food allergens through lack of the ability to measure food allergens reproducibly and with traceability to an international unit of measurement, the analytical community will have failed a significant societal challenge. Three distinct but interrelated areas of analytical work are urgently needed to address the substantial gaps identified: (a) a coordinated international programme for the production of properly characterised clinically relevant reference materials and calibrants for food allergen analysis; (b) an international programme to widen the scope of proteomics and genomics bioinformatics for the genera containing the major allergens to address problems in ELISA, MS and DNA methods; (c) the initiation of a coordinated international programme leading to reference methods for allergen proteins that provide results traceable to the SI. This article describes in more detail food allergy, the risks of inapplicable or flawed allergen analyses with examples and a proposed framework, including clinically relevant incurred allergen concentrations, to address the currently unmet and urgently required analytical requirements. Support for the

Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

PubMed

Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

2013-01-01

Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes.

Analytical quality by design: a tool for regulatory flexibility and robust analytics.

PubMed

Peraman, Ramalingam; Bhadraya, Kalva; Padmanabha Reddy, Yiragamreddy

2015-01-01

Very recently, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved a few new drug applications (NDA) with regulatory flexibility for quality by design (QbD) based analytical approach. The concept of QbD applied to analytical method development is known now as AQbD (analytical quality by design). It allows the analytical method for movement within method operable design region (MODR). Unlike current methods, analytical method developed using analytical quality by design (AQbD) approach reduces the number of out-of-trend (OOT) results and out-of-specification (OOS) results due to the robustness of the method within the region. It is a current trend among pharmaceutical industry to implement analytical quality by design (AQbD) in method development process as a part of risk management, pharmaceutical development, and pharmaceutical quality system (ICH Q10). Owing to the lack explanatory reviews, this paper has been communicated to discuss different views of analytical scientists about implementation of AQbD in pharmaceutical quality system and also to correlate with product quality by design and pharmaceutical analytical technology (PAT).

Analytical Quality by Design: A Tool for Regulatory Flexibility and Robust Analytics

PubMed Central

Bhadraya, Kalva; Padmanabha Reddy, Yiragamreddy

2015-01-01

Very recently, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved a few new drug applications (NDA) with regulatory flexibility for quality by design (QbD) based analytical approach. The concept of QbD applied to analytical method development is known now as AQbD (analytical quality by design). It allows the analytical method for movement within method operable design region (MODR). Unlike current methods, analytical method developed using analytical quality by design (AQbD) approach reduces the number of out-of-trend (OOT) results and out-of-specification (OOS) results due to the robustness of the method within the region. It is a current trend among pharmaceutical industry to implement analytical quality by design (AQbD) in method development process as a part of risk management, pharmaceutical development, and pharmaceutical quality system (ICH Q10). Owing to the lack explanatory reviews, this paper has been communicated to discuss different views of analytical scientists about implementation of AQbD in pharmaceutical quality system and also to correlate with product quality by design and pharmaceutical analytical technology (PAT). PMID:25722723

Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties.

PubMed

Salbu, Brit

2016-01-01

There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

Substantial contribution of extrinsic risk factors to cancer development | Office of Cancer Genomics

Cancer.gov

Recent research has highlighted a strong correlation between tissue-specific cancer risk and the lifetime number of tissue-specific stem-cell divisions. Whether such correlation implies a high unavoidable intrinsic cancer risk has become a key public health debate with the dissemination of the 'bad luck' hypothesis. Here we provide evidence that intrinsic risk factors contribute only modestly (less than ~10-30% of lifetime risk) to cancer development.

Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

2015-05-01

The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

Does network topology influence systemic risk contribution? A perspective from the industry indices in Chinese stock market.

PubMed

Long, Haiming; Zhang, Ji; Tang, Nengyu

2017-01-01

This study considers the effect of an industry's network topology on its systemic risk contribution to the stock market using data from the CSI 300 two-tier industry indices from the Chinese stock market. We first measure industry's conditional-value-at-risk (CoVaR) and the systemic risk contribution (ΔCoVaR) using the fitted time-varying t-copula function. The network of the stock industry is established based on dynamic conditional correlations with the minimum spanning tree. Then, we investigate the connection characteristics and topology of the network. Finally, we utilize seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SUR) of panel data to analyze the relationship between network topology of the stock industry and the industry's systemic risk contribution. The results show that the systemic risk contribution of small-scale industries such as real estate, food and beverage, software services, and durable goods and clothing, is higher than that of large-scale industries, such as banking, insurance and energy. Industries with large betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and clustering coefficient and small node occupancy layer are associated with greater systemic risk contribution. In addition, further analysis using a threshold model confirms that the results are robust.

Analytical Hierarchy Process modeling for malaria risk zones in Vadodara district, Gujarat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, B.; Joshi, J. P.

2014-11-01

Malaria epidemic is one of the complex spatial problems around the world. According to WHO, an estimated 6, 27, 000 deaths occurred due to malaria in 2012. In many developing nations with diverse ecological regions, it is still a large cause of human mortality. Owing to the incompleteness of epidemiological data and their spatial origin, the quantification of disease incidence burdening basic public health planning is a major constrain especially in developing countries. The present study focuses on the integrated Geospatial and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (AHP) technique to determine malaria risk zones. The study is conducted in Vadodara district, including 12 Taluka among which 4 Taluka are predominantly tribal. The influence of climatic and physical environmental factors viz., rainfall, hydro geomorphology; drainage, elevation, and land cover are used to score their share in the evaluation of malariogenic condition. This was synthesized on the basis of preference over each factor and the total weights of each data and data layer were computed and visualized. The district was divided into three viz., high, moderate and low risk zones .It was observed that a geographical area of 1885.2sq.km comprising 30.3% fall in high risk zone. The risk zones identified on the basis of these parameters and assigned weights shows a close resemblance with ground condition. As the API distribution for 2011overlaid corresponds to the risk zones identified. The study demonstrates the significance and prospect of integrating Geospatial tools and Analytical Hierarchy Process for malaria risk zones and dynamics of malaria transmission.

Learning Analytics at Low Cost: At-Risk Student Prediction with Clicker Data and Systematic Proactive Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Samuel P. M.; Lam, S. S.; Li, Kam Cheong; Wong, Billy T. M.

2018-01-01

While learning analytics (LA) practices have been shown to be practical and effective, most of them require a huge amount of data and effort. This paper reports a case study which demonstrates the feasibility of practising LA at a low cost for instructors to identify at-risk students in an undergraduate business quantitative methods course.…

Does network topology influence systemic risk contribution? A perspective from the industry indices in Chinese stock market

PubMed Central

Long, Haiming; Tang, Nengyu

2017-01-01

This study considers the effect of an industry’s network topology on its systemic risk contribution to the stock market using data from the CSI 300 two-tier industry indices from the Chinese stock market. We first measure industry’s conditional-value-at-risk (CoVaR) and the systemic risk contribution (ΔCoVaR) using the fitted time-varying t-copula function. The network of the stock industry is established based on dynamic conditional correlations with the minimum spanning tree. Then, we investigate the connection characteristics and topology of the network. Finally, we utilize seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SUR) of panel data to analyze the relationship between network topology of the stock industry and the industry’s systemic risk contribution. The results show that the systemic risk contribution of small-scale industries such as real estate, food and beverage, software services, and durable goods and clothing, is higher than that of large-scale industries, such as banking, insurance and energy. Industries with large betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and clustering coefficient and small node occupancy layer are associated with greater systemic risk contribution. In addition, further analysis using a threshold model confirms that the results are robust. PMID:28683130

Understanding Sociocultural Factors Contributing to HIV Risk Among Ayoreo Bolivian Sex Workers.

PubMed

López Entrambasaguas, Olga María; Granero-Molina, José; Hernández-Padilla, Jose; Fernández-Sola, Cayetano

2015-01-01

The Bolivian indigenous Ayoreo ethnic people are vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections and HIV. Ayoreo women who also work in sex trades belong to an extremely high-risk group, and prevention programs are not delivering effective outcomes for them. The aim of our study was to explore, describe, and understand behavioral and cultural patterns related to sexual and reproductive health in Ayoreo sex workers. A qualitative-ethnographic study was designed; data were collected through participant observation and in-depth interviews with sex workers and key informants. Two fundamental themes contributing to HIV risk for female Ayoreo sex workers in Bolivia emerged: reproductive/sexual freedom and sociocultural risk determinants. We concluded that the in-depth examination of the sexual-reproductive culture amongst the Ayoreo has provided useful information, which might contribute to the cultural adaptation and design of future policies and prevention programs for sexually transmitted infections and HIV in this group. Copyright © 2015 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China

PubMed Central

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

2016-01-01

Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21st century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change. PMID:26867481

Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

PubMed

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

2016-02-12

Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

The return periods and risk assessment of severe dust storms in Inner Mongolia with consideration of the main contributing factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng; Ji, Zhonghui

2012-09-01

This study presents a methodology for return period analysis and risk assessment of severe dust storm disaster. Meteorological observation data, soil moisture data, and remote sensing data from 30 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia (western China) from 1985 to 2006 were used for the study. A composite index of severe dust storm disaster (Index I (SDS)) based on the influence mechanisms of the main contributing factors was developed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted comprehensive method, and the hazard risk curves (i.e., the transcendental probability curves of I (SDS)) for the 30 stations were established using the parameter estimation method. We then analyzed the risk of the occurrence of severe dust storm under different scenarios of 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods. The results show that the risk decreased from west to east across Inner Mongolia, and there are four severe dust storm occurrence peak value centers, including Guaizihu, Jilantai, Hailisu, and Zhurihe-Erenhot. The severity of dust storms in seven places will be intolerable in the 50-year return period scenario and in three places in the 20-year return period scenario. These results indicate that these locations should concentrate forces on disaster prevention, monitoring, and early warning. The I (SDS) was developed as an easily understandable tool useful for the assessment and comparison of the relative risk of severe dust storm disasters in different areas. The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in their management of severe dust storm disasters in their efforts to (1) make resource allocation decisions, (2) make high-level planning decisions, and (3) raise public awareness of severe dust storm risk.

Using business analytics to improve outcomes.

PubMed

Rivera, Jose; Delaney, Stephen

2015-02-01

Orlando Health has brought its hospital and physician practice revenue cycle systems into better balance using four sets of customized analytics: Physician performance analytics gauge the total net revenue for every employed physician. Patient-pay analytics provide financial risk scores for all patients on both the hospital and physician practice sides. Revenue management analytics bridge the gap between the back-end central business office and front-end physician practice managers and administrators. Enterprise management analytics allow the hospitals and physician practices to share important information about common patients.

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Gestational Diabetes Prevalence and Contribution of Common Risk Factors.

PubMed

Pu, Jia; Zhao, Beinan; Wang, Elsie J; Nimbal, Vani; Osmundson, Sarah; Kunz, Liza; Popat, Rita A; Chung, Sukyung; Palaniappan, Latha P

2015-09-01

The White House, the American Heart Association, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute have all recently acknowledged the need to disaggregate Asian American subgroups to better understand this heterogeneous racial group. This study aims to assess racial/ethnic differences in relative contribution of risk factors of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) among Asian subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese), Hispanics, non-Hispanic blacks, and non-Hispanic whites. Pregnant women in 2007-2012 were identified through California state birth certificate records and linked to the electronic health records in a large mixed-payer ambulatory care organisation in Northern California (n = 24 195). Relative risk and population attributable fraction (PAF) for specific racial/ethnic groups were calculated to assess the contributions of advanced maternal age, overweight/obesity (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) standards and World Health Organization (WHO)/American Diabetes Association (ADA) body mass index cut-offs for Asians), family history of type 2 diabetes, and foreign-born status. GDM was most prevalent among Asian Indians (19.3%). Relative risks were similar across all race/ethnic groups. Advanced maternal age had higher PAFs in non-Hispanic whites (22.5%) and Hispanics (22.7%). Meanwhile family history (Asian Indians 22.6%, Chinese 22.9%) and foreign-borne status (Chinese 40.2%, Filipinos 30.2%) had higher PAFs in Asian subgroups. Overweight/obesity was the most important GDM risk factor for non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, Asian Indians, and Filipinos when the WHO/ADA cut-off points were applied. Advanced maternal age was the only risk factor studied that was modified by race/ethnicity, with non-Hispanic white and Hispanic women being more adversely affected than other racial/ethnic groups. Overweight/obesity, advanced maternal age, family history of type 2

Evaluation of markers and risk prediction models: Overview of relationships between NRI and decision-analytic measures

PubMed Central

Calster, Ben Van; Vickers, Andrew J; Pencina, Michael J; Baker, Stuart G; Timmerman, Dirk; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND For the evaluation and comparison of markers and risk prediction models, various novel measures have recently been introduced as alternatives to the commonly used difference in the area under the ROC curve (ΔAUC). The Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) is increasingly popular to compare predictions with one or more risk thresholds, but decision-analytic approaches have also been proposed. OBJECTIVE We aimed to identify the mathematical relationships between novel performance measures for the situation that a single risk threshold T is used to classify patients as having the outcome or not. METHODS We considered the NRI and three utility-based measures that take misclassification costs into account: difference in Net Benefit (ΔNB), difference in Relative Utility (ΔRU), and weighted NRI (wNRI). We illustrate the behavior of these measures in 1938 women suspect of ovarian cancer (prevalence 28%). RESULTS The three utility-based measures appear transformations of each other, and hence always lead to consistent conclusions. On the other hand, conclusions may differ when using the standard NRI, depending on the adopted risk threshold T, prevalence P and the obtained differences in sensitivity and specificity of the two models that are compared. In the case study, adding the CA-125 tumor marker to a baseline set of covariates yielded a negative NRI yet a positive value for the utility-based measures. CONCLUSIONS The decision-analytic measures are each appropriate to indicate the clinical usefulness of an added marker or compare prediction models, since these measures each reflect misclassification costs. This is of practical importance as these measures may thus adjust conclusions based on purely statistical measures. A range of risk thresholds should be considered in applying these measures. PMID:23313931

Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Charles Awoala

For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain. The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management; Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors; and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational. Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include; (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03. With respect to major objectives the most

Monitoring of emerging pollutants in Guadiamar River basin (South of Spain): analytical method, spatial distribution and environmental risk assessment.

PubMed

Garrido, Eva; Camacho-Muñoz, Dolores; Martín, Julia; Santos, Antonio; Santos, Juan Luis; Aparicio, Irene; Alonso, Esteban

2016-12-01

Guadiamar River is located in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula and connects two protected areas in the South of Spain: Sierra Morena and Doñana National Park. It is sited in an area affected by urban, industrial and agriculture sewage pollution and with tradition on intensive mining activities. Most of the studies performed in this area have been mainly focused on the presence of heavy metals and, until now, little is known about the occurrence of other contaminants such as emerging organic pollutants (EOPs). In this work, an analytical method has been optimized and validated for monitoring of forty-seven EOPs in surface water. The analytical method has been applied to study the distribution and environmental risk of these pollutants in Guadiamar River basin. The analytical method was based on solid-phase extraction and determination by liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole-tandem mass spectrometry. The 60 % of the target compounds were found in the analyzed samples. The highest concentrations were found for two plasticizers (bisphenol A and di(2-ethyhexyl)phthalate, mean concentration up to 930 ng/L) and two pharmaceutical compounds (caffeine (up to 623 ng/L) and salicylic acid (up to 318 ng/L)). This study allowed to evaluate the potential sources (industrial or urban) of the studied compounds and the spatial distribution of their concentrations along the river. Environmental risk assessment showed a major risk on the south of the river, mainly due to discharges of wastewater effluents.

The current contribution of molecular factors to risk estimation in neuroblastoma patients.

PubMed

Berthold, F; Sahin, K; Hero, B; Christiansen, H; Gehring, M; Harms, D; Horz, S; Lampert, F; Schwab, M; Terpe, J

1997-10-01

The association of molecular characteristics with prognosis has been reported, but not their relationship with each other and their impact in the context of known clinical risk factors. In this study, data of 1249 consecutive intent-to-treat-neuroblastoma patients with more than 1 year follow-up were examined by multivariate analysis using loglinear and Cox proportional hazard regression models on a stage-related basis (stages 1-3: 600, 4S: 116, 4: 533). In a first step, risk factors were identified from 18 selected clinical variables, and risk groups defined. The second step investigated whether molecular characteristics (MYCN, LOH 1p, del 1p, CD44, N-ras, NGF-R, bcl-2, APO-1 (CD95)) contributed additional prognostic information to the model. The loglinear model demonstrated several interactions between clinical factors. By the Cox regression model, seven independent clinical risk factors were found for stages 1-3, seven for stage 4 and two for stage 4S. By subsequent introduction of all molecular variables, MYCN amplification only added significant prognostic information to the clinical factors in localised and stage 4 neuroblastoma. The models allowed the definition of risk groups for stages 1-3 patients by age (e beta = 5.09) and MYCN (e beta = 4.26), for stage 4 by MYCN (e beta = 2.78) and number of symptoms (e beta = 2.44) and for stage 4S by platelet count (e beta = 3.91) and general condition (e beta = 2.99). Molecular factors and in particular MYCN contribute significantly to risk estimation. In conjunction with clinical factors, they are powerful tools to define risk groups in neuroblastoma.

The transfer of analytical procedures.

PubMed

Ermer, J; Limberger, M; Lis, K; Wätzig, H

2013-11-01

Analytical method transfers are certainly among the most discussed topics in the GMP regulated sector. However, they are surprisingly little regulated in detail. General information is provided by USP, WHO, and ISPE in particular. Most recently, the EU emphasized the importance of analytical transfer by including it in their draft of the revised GMP Guideline. In this article, an overview and comparison of these guidelines is provided. The key to success for method transfers is the excellent communication between sending and receiving unit. In order to facilitate this communication, procedures, flow charts and checklists for responsibilities, success factors, transfer categories, the transfer plan and report, strategies in case of failed transfers, tables with acceptance limits are provided here, together with a comprehensive glossary. Potential pitfalls are described such that they can be avoided. In order to assure an efficient and sustainable transfer of analytical procedures, a practically relevant and scientifically sound evaluation with corresponding acceptance criteria is crucial. Various strategies and statistical tools such as significance tests, absolute acceptance criteria, and equivalence tests are thoroughly descibed and compared in detail giving examples. Significance tests should be avoided. The success criterion is not statistical significance, but rather analytical relevance. Depending on a risk assessment of the analytical procedure in question, statistical equivalence tests are recommended, because they include both, a practically relevant acceptance limit and a direct control of the statistical risks. However, for lower risk procedures, a simple comparison of the transfer performance parameters to absolute limits is also regarded as sufficient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative evaluation of analyte transport on microfluidic paper-based analytical devices (μPADs).

PubMed

Ota, Riki; Yamada, Kentaro; Suzuki, Koji; Citterio, Daniel

2018-02-07

The transport efficiency during capillary flow-driven sample transport on microfluidic paper-based analytical devices (μPADs) made from filter paper has been investigated for a selection of model analytes (Ni 2+ , Zn 2+ , Cu 2+ , PO 4 3- , bovine serum albumin, sulforhodamine B, amaranth) representing metal cations, complex anions, proteins and anionic molecules. For the first time, the transport of the analytical target compounds rather than the sample liquid, has been quantitatively evaluated by means of colorimetry and absorption spectrometry-based methods. The experiments have revealed that small paperfluidic channel dimensions, additional user operation steps (e.g. control of sample volume, sample dilution, washing step) as well as the introduction of sample liquid wicking areas allow to increase analyte transport efficiency. It is also shown that the interaction of analytes with the negatively charged cellulosic paper substrate surface is strongly influenced by the physico-chemical properties of the model analyte and can in some cases (Cu 2+ ) result in nearly complete analyte depletion during sample transport. The quantitative information gained through these experiments is expected to contribute to the development of more sensitive μPADs.

Quantifying the contributions of behavioral and biological risk factors to socioeconomic disparities in coronary heart disease incidence: The MORGEN study

PubMed Central

Kershaw, Kiarri N.; Droomers, Mariël; Robinson, Whitney R.; Carnethon, Mercedes R.; Daviglus, Martha L.; Verschuren, W.M. Monique

2013-01-01

Quantifying the impact of different modifiable behavioral and biological risk factors on socioeconomic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) may help inform targeted, population-specific strategies to reduce the unequal distribution of the disease. Previous studies have used analytic approaches that limit our ability to disentangle the relative contributions of these risk factors to CHD disparities. The goal of this study was to assess mediation of the effect of low education on incident CHD by multiple risk factors simultaneously. Analyses are based on 15,067 participants of the Dutch Monitoring Project on Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases aged 20–65 years examined 1994–1997 and followed for events until January 1, 2008. Path analysis was used to quantify and test mediation of the low education-CHD association by behavioral (current cigarette smoking, heavy alcohol use, poor diet, and physical inactivity) and biological (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia) risk factors. Behavioral and biological risk factors accounted for 56.6% (95% CI: 42.6%–70.8%) of the low education-incident CHD association. Smoking was the strongest mediator, accounting for 27.3% (95% CI: 17.7%–37.4%) of the association, followed by obesity (10.2%; 95% CI: 4.5%–16.1%), physical inactivity (6.3%; 95% CI: 2.7%–10.0%), and hypertension (5.3%; 95% CI: 2.8%–8.0%). In summary, in a Dutch cohort, the majority of the relationship between low education and incident CHD was mediated by traditional behavioral and biological risk factors. Addressing barriers to smoking cessation, blood pressure and weight management, and physical activity may be the most effective approaches to eliminating socioeconomic inequalities in CHD. PMID:24037117

What Is Trust? Ethics and Risk Governance in Precision Medicine and Predictive Analytics

PubMed Central

Adjekum, Afua; Ienca, Marcello

2017-01-01

Abstract Trust is a ubiquitous term used in emerging technology (e.g., Big Data, precision medicine), innovation policy, and governance literatures in particular. But what exactly is trust? Even though trust is considered a critical requirement for the successful deployment of precision medicine initiatives, nonetheless, there is a need for further conceptualization with regard to what qualifies as trust, and what factors might establish and sustain trust in precision medicine, predictive analytics, and large-scale biology. These new fields of 21st century medicine and health often deal with the “futures” and hence, trust gains a temporal and ever-present quality for both the present and the futures anticipated by new technologies and predictive analytics. We address these conceptual gaps that have important practical implications in the way we govern risk and unknowns associated with emerging technologies in biology, medicine, and health broadly. We provide an in-depth conceptual analysis and an operative definition of trust dynamics in precision medicine. In addition, we identify three main types of “trust facilitators”: (1) technical, (2) ethical, and (3) institutional. This three-dimensional framework on trust is necessary to building and maintaining trust in 21st century knowledge-based innovations that governments and publics invest for progressive societal change, development, and sustainable prosperity. Importantly, we analyze, identify, and deliberate on the dimensions of precision medicine and large-scale biology that have carved out trust as a pertinent tool to its success. Moving forward, we propose a “points to consider” on how best to enhance trust in precision medicine and predictive analytics. PMID:29257733

What Is Trust? Ethics and Risk Governance in Precision Medicine and Predictive Analytics.

PubMed

Adjekum, Afua; Ienca, Marcello; Vayena, Effy

2017-12-01

Trust is a ubiquitous term used in emerging technology (e.g., Big Data, precision medicine), innovation policy, and governance literatures in particular. But what exactly is trust? Even though trust is considered a critical requirement for the successful deployment of precision medicine initiatives, nonetheless, there is a need for further conceptualization with regard to what qualifies as trust, and what factors might establish and sustain trust in precision medicine, predictive analytics, and large-scale biology. These new fields of 21st century medicine and health often deal with the "futures" and hence, trust gains a temporal and ever-present quality for both the present and the futures anticipated by new technologies and predictive analytics. We address these conceptual gaps that have important practical implications in the way we govern risk and unknowns associated with emerging technologies in biology, medicine, and health broadly. We provide an in-depth conceptual analysis and an operative definition of trust dynamics in precision medicine. In addition, we identify three main types of "trust facilitators": (1) technical, (2) ethical, and (3) institutional. This three-dimensional framework on trust is necessary to building and maintaining trust in 21st century knowledge-based innovations that governments and publics invest for progressive societal change, development, and sustainable prosperity. Importantly, we analyze, identify, and deliberate on the dimensions of precision medicine and large-scale biology that have carved out trust as a pertinent tool to its success. Moving forward, we propose a "points to consider" on how best to enhance trust in precision medicine and predictive analytics.

Adjustment of Children Born to Teenage Mothers: The Contribution of Risk and Protective Factors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubow, Eric F.; Luster, Tom

1990-01-01

Examined contribution of risk and protective factors in adjustment of 721 children, age 8-15, born to teenage mothers. Results showed that exposure to increasing number of risk factors (poverty, urban residence, mother's self-esteem) was associated with greater vulnerability to adjustment problems, while protective factors (intelligence,…

Evaluation of the risk factors associated with rectal neuroendocrine tumors: a big data analytic study from a health screening center.

PubMed

Pyo, Jeung Hui; Hong, Sung Noh; Min, Byung-Hoon; Lee, Jun Haeng; Chang, Dong Kyung; Rhee, Poong-Lyul; Kim, Jae Jun; Choi, Sun Kyu; Jung, Sin-Ho; Son, Hee Jung; Kim, Young-Ho

2016-12-01

Rectal neuroendocrine tumor (NET) is the most common NET in Asia. The risk factors associated with rectal NETs are unclear because of the overall low incidence rate of these tumors and the associated difficulty in conducting large epidemiological studies on rare cases. The aim of this study was to exploit the benefits of big data analytics to assess the risk factors associated with rectal NET. A retrospective case-control study was conducted, including 102 patients with histologically confirmed rectal NETs and 52,583 healthy controls who underwent screening colonoscopy at the Center for Health Promotion of the Samsung Medical Center in Korea between January 2002 and December 2012. Information on different risk factors was collected and logistic regression analysis applied to identify predictive factors. Four factors were significantly associated with rectal NET: higher levels of cholesterol [odds ratio (OR) = 1.007, 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.001-1.013, p = 0.016] and ferritin (OR = 1.502, 95 % CI, 1.167-1.935, p = 0.002), presence of metabolic syndrome (OR = 1.768, 95 % CI, 1.071-2.918, p = 0.026), and family history of cancer among first-degree relatives (OR = 1.664, 95 % CI, 1.019-2.718, p = 0.042). The findings of our study demonstrate the benefits of using big data analytics for research and clinical risk factor studies. Specifically, in this study, this analytical method was applied to identify higher levels of serum cholesterol and ferritin, metabolic syndrome, and family history of cancer as factors that may explain the increasing incidence and prevalence of rectal NET.

The contribution of an animal model toward uncovering biological risk factors for PTSD.

PubMed

Cohen, Hagit; Matar, Michael A; Richter-Levin, Gal; Zohar, Joseph

2006-07-01

Clinical studies of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have elicited proposed risk factors for developing PTSD in the aftermath of stress exposure. Generally, these risk factors have arisen from retrospective analysis of premorbid characteristics of study populations. A valid animal model of PTSD can complement clinical studies and help to elucidate issues, such as the contribution of proposed risk factors, in ways which are not practicable in the clinical arena. Important qualities of animal models include the possibility to conduct controlled prospective studies, easy access to postmortem brains, and the availability of genetically manipulated subjects, which can be tailored to specific needs. When these qualities are further complemented by an approach which defines phenomenologic criteria to address the variance in individual response pattern and magnitude, enabling the animal subjects to be classified into definable groups for focused study, the model acquires added validity. This article presents an overview of a series of studies in such an animal model which examine the contribution of two proposed risk factors and the value of two early postexposure pharmacological manipulations on the prevalence rates of subjects displaying an extreme magnitude of behavioral response to a predator stress paradigm.

Development of an analytical method to assess the occupational health risk of therapeutic monoclonal antibodies using LC-HRMS.

PubMed

Reinders, Lars M H; Klassen, Martin D; Jaeger, Martin; Teutenberg, Thorsten; Tuerk, Jochen

2018-04-01

Monoclonal antibodies are a group of commonly used therapeutics, whose occupational health risk is still discussed controversially. The long-term low-dose exposure side effects are insufficiently evaluated; hence, discussions are often based on a theoretical level or extrapolating side effects from therapeutic dosages. While some research groups recommend applying the precautionary principle for monoclonal antibodies, others consider the exposure risk too low for measures taken towards occupational health and safety. However, both groups agree that airborne monoclonal antibodies have the biggest risk potential. Therefore, we developed a peptide-based analytical method for occupational exposure monitoring of airborne monoclonal antibodies. The method will allow collecting data about the occupational exposure to monoclonal antibodies. Thus, the mean daily intake for personnel in pharmacies and the pharmaceutical industry can be determined for the first time and will help to substantiate the risk assessment by relevant data. The introduced monitoring method includes air sampling, sample preparation and detection by liquid chromatography coupled with high-resolution mass spectrometry of individual monoclonal antibodies as well as sum parameter. For method development and validation, a chimeric (rituximab), humanised (trastuzumab) and a fully humanised (daratumumab) monoclonal antibody are used. A limit of detection between 1 μg per sample for daratumumab and 25 μg per sample for the collective peptide is achieved. Graphical abstract Demonstration of the analytical workflow, from the release of monoclonal antibodies to the detection as single substances as well as sum parameter.

Transfer of analytical procedures: a panel of strategies selected for risk management, with emphasis on an integrated equivalence-based comparative testing approach.

PubMed

Agut, C; Caron, A; Giordano, C; Hoffman, D; Ségalini, A

2011-09-10

In 2001, a multidisciplinary team made of analytical scientists and statisticians at Sanofi-aventis has published a methodology which has governed, from that time, the transfers from R&D sites to Manufacturing sites of the release monographs. This article provides an overview of the recent adaptations brought to this original methodology taking advantage of our experience and the new regulatory framework, and, in particular, the risk management perspective introduced by ICH Q9. Although some alternate strategies have been introduced in our practices, the comparative testing one, based equivalence testing as statistical approach, remains the standard for assays lying on very critical quality attributes. This is conducted with the concern to control the most important consumer's risk involved at two levels in analytical decisions in the frame of transfer studies: risk, for the receiving laboratory, to take poor release decisions with the analytical method and risk, for the sending laboratory, to accredit such a receiving laboratory on account of its insufficient performances with the method. Among the enhancements to the comparative studies, the manuscript presents the process settled within our company for a better integration of the transfer study into the method life-cycle, just as proposals of generic acceptance criteria and designs for assay and related substances methods. While maintaining rigor and selectivity of the original approach, these improvements tend towards an increased efficiency in the transfer operations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The contribution of Raman spectroscopy to the analytical quality control of cytotoxic drugs in a hospital environment: eliminating the exposure risks for staff members and their work environment.

PubMed

Bourget, Philippe; Amin, Alexandre; Vidal, Fabrice; Merlette, Christophe; Troude, Pénélope; Baillet-Guffroy, Arlette

2014-08-15

The purpose of the study was to perform a comparative analysis of the technical performance, respective costs and environmental effect of two invasive analytical methods (HPLC and UV/visible-FTIR) as compared to a new non-invasive analytical technique (Raman spectroscopy). Three pharmacotherapeutic models were used to compare the analytical performances of the three analytical techniques. Statistical inter-method correlation analysis was performed using non-parametric correlation rank tests. The study's economic component combined calculations relative to the depreciation of the equipment and the estimated cost of an AQC unit of work. In any case, analytical validation parameters of the three techniques were satisfactory, and strong correlations between the two spectroscopic techniques vs. HPLC were found. In addition, Raman spectroscopy was found to be superior as compared to the other techniques for numerous key criteria including a complete safety for operators and their occupational environment, a non-invasive procedure, no need for consumables, and a low operating cost. Finally, Raman spectroscopy appears superior for technical, economic and environmental objectives, as compared with the other invasive analytical methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Loneliness and social isolation as risk factors for mortality: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Baker, Mark; Harris, Tyler; Stephenson, David

2015-03-01

Actual and perceived social isolation are both associated with increased risk for early mortality. In this meta-analytic review, our objective is to establish the overall and relative magnitude of social isolation and loneliness and to examine possible moderators. We conducted a literature search of studies (January 1980 to February 2014) using MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Social Work Abstracts, and Google Scholar. The included studies provided quantitative data on mortality as affected by loneliness, social isolation, or living alone. Across studies in which several possible confounds were statistically controlled for, the weighted average effect sizes were as follows: social isolation odds ratio (OR) = 1.29, loneliness OR = 1.26, and living alone OR = 1.32, corresponding to an average of 29%, 26%, and 32% increased likelihood of mortality, respectively. We found no differences between measures of objective and subjective social isolation. Results remain consistent across gender, length of follow-up, and world region, but initial health status has an influence on the findings. Results also differ across participant age, with social deficits being more predictive of death in samples with an average age younger than 65 years. Overall, the influence of both objective and subjective social isolation on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. © The Author(s) 2015.

Contribution of Global Rare Copy-Number Variants to the Risk of Sporadic Congenital Heart Disease

PubMed Central

Soemedi, Rachel; Wilson, Ian J.; Bentham, Jamie; Darlay, Rebecca; Töpf, Ana; Zelenika, Diana; Cosgrove, Catherine; Setchfield, Kerry; Thornborough, Chris; Granados-Riveron, Javier; Blue, Gillian M.; Breckpot, Jeroen; Hellens, Stephen; Zwolinkski, Simon; Glen, Elise; Mamasoula, Chrysovalanto; Rahman, Thahira J.; Hall, Darroch; Rauch, Anita; Devriendt, Koenraad; Gewillig, Marc; O’ Sullivan, John; Winlaw, David S.; Bu’Lock, Frances; Brook, J. David; Bhattacharya, Shoumo; Lathrop, Mark; Santibanez-Koref, Mauro; Cordell, Heather J.; Goodship, Judith A.; Keavney, Bernard D.

2012-01-01

Previous studies have shown that copy-number variants (CNVs) contribute to the risk of complex developmental phenotypes. However, the contribution of global CNV burden to the risk of sporadic congenital heart disease (CHD) remains incompletely defined. We generated genome-wide CNV data by using Illumina 660W-Quad SNP arrays in 2,256 individuals with CHD, 283 trio CHD-affected families, and 1,538 controls. We found association of rare genic deletions with CHD risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.8, p = 0.0008). Rare deletions in study participants with CHD had higher gene content (p = 0.001) with higher haploinsufficiency scores (p = 0.03) than they did in controls, and they were enriched with Wnt-signaling genes (p = 1 × 10−5). Recurrent 15q11.2 deletions were associated with CHD risk (OR = 8.2, p = 0.02). Rare de novo CNVs were observed in ∼5% of CHD trios; 10 out of 11 occurred on the paternally transmitted chromosome (p = 0.01). Some of the rare de novo CNVs spanned genes known to be involved in heart development (e.g., HAND2 and GJA5). Rare genic deletions contribute ∼4% of the population-attributable risk of sporadic CHD. Second to previously described CNVs at 1q21.1, deletions at 15q11.2 and those implicating Wnt signaling are the most significant contributors to the risk of sporadic CHD. Rare de novo CNVs identified in CHD trios exhibit paternal origin bias. PMID:22939634

Discourse-Centric Learning Analytics: Mapping the Terrain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knight, Simon; Littleton, Karen

2015-01-01

There is an increasing interest in developing learning analytic techniques for the analysis, and support of, high-quality learning discourse. This paper maps the terrain of discourse-centric learning analytics (DCLA), outlining the distinctive contribution of DCLA and outlining a definition for the field moving forwards. It is our claim that DCLA…

Risk Assessment: Factors Contributing to Discomfort for Menopausal Women in Workplace.

PubMed

Jafari, Mehdi; Seifi, Bahar; Heidari, Mohammad

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to review the Factors contributing to discomfort for menopausal women in workplace and the perceived effects of working conditions on menopausal symptoms, and to produce recommendations for managers and women. This study was a review article. We searched PubMed and Science Direct for articles related to menopause and workplace. Keywords included: menopause AND workplace OR occupational health or menopausal women AND managers. Because we aimed to update the literature following the 2011 review of menopause and workplace, only English-language articles published between 2011 and 2017 were included. This review showed that how managers could be help and awareness and what should be done for menopausal women in workplace by risk assessment. Many risk factors are contributing to discomfort for menopausal women in workplace and managers should be assessed them. Managers should be aware that menopausal transition causes difficulty for some women at work, then occupational health and safety and health promotion policies will be increasingly important. It may help inform the development of tailored occupational health policies and programs that cater for the needs of women as they transition through menopause in the workplace.

An overview of city analytics

PubMed Central

Higham, Desmond J.; Batty, Michael; Bettencourt, Luís M. A.; Greetham, Danica Vukadinović; Grindrod, Peter

2017-01-01

We introduce the 14 articles in the Royal Society Open Science themed issue on City Analytics. To provide a high-level, strategic, overview, we summarize the topics addressed and the analytical tools deployed. We then give a more detailed account of the individual contributions. Our overall aims are (i) to highlight exciting advances in this emerging, interdisciplinary field, (ii) to encourage further activity and (iii) to emphasize the variety of new, public-domain, datasets that are available to researchers. PMID:28386454

Rare Inherited and De Novo CNVs Reveal Complex Contributions to ASD Risk in Multiplex Families.

PubMed

Leppa, Virpi M; Kravitz, Stephanie N; Martin, Christa Lese; Andrieux, Joris; Le Caignec, Cedric; Martin-Coignard, Dominique; DyBuncio, Christina; Sanders, Stephan J; Lowe, Jennifer K; Cantor, Rita M; Geschwind, Daniel H

2016-09-01

Rare mutations, including copy-number variants (CNVs), contribute significantly to autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk. Although their importance has been established in families with only one affected child (simplex families), the contribution of both de novo and inherited CNVs to ASD in families with multiple affected individuals (multiplex families) is less well understood. We analyzed 1,532 families from the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange (AGRE) to assess the impact of de novo and rare CNVs on ASD risk in multiplex families. We observed a higher burden of large, rare CNVs, including inherited events, in individuals with ASD than in their unaffected siblings (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7), but the rate of de novo events was significantly lower than in simplex families. In previously characterized ASD risk loci, we identified 49 CNVs, comprising 24 inherited events, 19 de novo events, and 6 events of unknown inheritance, a significant enrichment in affected versus control individuals (OR = 3.3). In 21 of the 30 families (71%) in whom at least one affected sibling harbored an established ASD major risk CNV, including five families harboring inherited CNVs, the CNV was not shared by all affected siblings, indicating that other risk factors are contributing. We also identified a rare risk locus for ASD and language delay at chromosomal region 2q24 (implicating NR4A2) and another lower-penetrance locus involving inherited deletions and duplications of WWOX. The genetic architecture in multiplex families differs from that in simplex families and is complex, warranting more complete genetic characterization of larger multiplex ASD cohorts. Copyright © 2016 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contribution of Electrochemistry to the Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Analytical Sciences.

PubMed

Kauffmann, Jean-Michel; Patris, Stephanie; Vandeput, Marie; Sarakbi, Ahmad; Sakira, Abdul Karim

2016-01-01

All analytical techniques have experienced major progress since the last ten years and electroanalysis is also involved in this trend. The unique characteristics of phenomena occurring at the electrode-solution interface along with the variety of electrochemical methods currently available allow for a broad spectrum of applications. Potentiometric, conductometric, voltammetric and amperometric methods are briefly reviewed with a critical view in terms of performance of the developed instrumentation with special emphasis on pharmaceutical and biomedical applications.

Methodological Challenges in Research on Sexual Risk Behavior: I. Item Content, Scaling, and Data Analytical Options

PubMed Central

Schroder, Kerstin E. E.; Carey, Michael P.; Vanable, Peter A.

2008-01-01

Investigation of sexual behavior involves many challenges, including how to assess sexual behavior and how to analyze the resulting data. Sexual behavior can be assessed using absolute frequency measures (also known as “counts”) or with relative frequency measures (e.g., rating scales ranging from “never” to “always”). We discuss these two assessment approaches in the context of research on HIV risk behavior. We conclude that these two approaches yield non-redundant information and, more importantly, that only data yielding information about the absolute frequency of risk behavior have the potential to serve as valid indicators of HIV contraction risk. However, analyses of count data may be challenging due to non-normal distributions with many outliers. Therefore, we identify new and powerful data analytical solutions that have been developed recently to analyze count data, and discuss limitations of a commonly applied method (viz., ANCOVA using baseline scores as covariates). PMID:14534027

Relative Risks of Contributing Factors to Morbidity and Mortality in Adults With Craniopharyngioma on Growth Hormone Replacement.

PubMed

Yuen, Kevin C J; Mattsson, Anders F; Burman, Pia; Erfurth, Eva-Marie; Camacho-Hubner, Cecilia; Fox, Janet L; Verhelst, Johan; Geffner, Mitchell E; Abs, Roger

2018-02-01

In adults, craniopharyngioma (CP) of either childhood-onset (CO-CP) or adult-onset (AO-CP) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but data on the relative risks (RRs) of contributing factors are lacking. To assess the RRs of factors contributing to morbidity and mortality in adults with CO-CP and AO-CP. Data on 1669 patients with CP from KIMS (Pfizer International Metabolic Database) were analyzed using univariate and multiple Poisson and Cox regression methods. When CO-CP and AO-CP groups were combined, history of stroke and hyperlipidemia increased cardiovascular risk, higher body mass index (BMI) and radiotherapy increased cerebrovascular risk, and increased waist circumference increased the risk of developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Compared with patients with CO-CP, patients with AO-CP had a threefold higher risk of tumor recurrence, whereas being female and previous radiotherapy exposure conferred lower risks. Radiotherapy and older age with every 10 years from disease onset conferred a 2.3- to 3.5-fold risk for developing new intracranial tumors, whereas older age, greater and/or increasing BMI, history of stroke, and lower insulinlike growth factor I (IGF-I) standard deviation score measured at last sampling before death were related to increased all-cause mortality. Compared with the general population, adults with CP had 9.3-, 8.1-, and 2.2-fold risks of developing DM, new intracranial tumors, and early death, respectively. Conventional factors that increase the risks of cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases and DM and risks for developing new intracranial tumors contributed to excess morbidity and mortality. In addition, lower serum IGF-I level measured from the last sample before death was inversely associated with mortality risk in patients with CP. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

Pesticide mixtures in the Swedish streams: Environmental risks, contributions of individual compounds and consequences of single-substance oriented risk mitigation.

PubMed

Gustavsson, Mikael; Kreuger, Jenny; Bundschuh, Mirco; Backhaus, Thomas

2017-11-15

This paper presents the ecotoxicological assessment and environmental risk evaluation of complex pesticide mixtures occurring in freshwater ecosystems in southern Sweden. The evaluation is based on exposure data collected between 2002 and 2013 by the Swedish pesticide monitoring program and includes 1308 individual samples, detecting mixtures of up to 53 pesticides (modal=8). Pesticide mixture risks were evaluated using three different scenarios for non-detects (best-case, worst-case and using the Kaplan-Meier method). The risk of each scenario was analyzed using Swedish Water Quality Objectives (WQO) and trophic-level specific environmental thresholds. Using the Kaplan-Meier method the environmental risk of 73% of the samples exceeded acceptable levels, based on an assessment using Concentration-Addition and WQOs for the individual pesticides. Algae were the most sensitive organism group. However, analytical detection limits, especially for insecticides, were insufficient to analyze concentrations at or near their WQO's. Thus, the risk of the analyzed pesticide mixtures to crustaceans and fish is systematically underestimated. Treating non-detects as being present at their individual limit of detection increased the estimated risk by a factor 100 or more, compared to the best-case or the Kaplan-Meier scenario. Pesticide mixture risks are often driven by only 1-3 compounds. However, the risk-drivers (i.e., individual pesticides explaining the largest share of potential effects) differ substantially between sites and samples, and 83 of the 141 monitored pesticides need to be included in the assessment to account for 95% of the risk at all sites and years. Single-substance oriented risk mitigation measures that would ensure that each individual pesticide is present at a maximum of 95% of its individual WQO, would also reduce the mixture risk, but only from a median risk quotient of 2.1 to a median risk quotient of 1.8. Also, acceptable total risk levels would still

The prevalence of asthma risk and contributing factors in underserved Vietnamese children in Orange County, CA.

PubMed

Nguyen, Tan; Kilgore, David; Morphew, Tricia; Tran, Jacqueline; Berg, Jill; Galant, Stanley

2015-01-01

Vietnamese constitutes one of the fastest growing minority groups in America, with the largest concentration in Orange County (OC), CA. Yet, there are limited data on the prevalence of asthma in Vietnamese children. Our study evaluated the risk of asthma and key contributing factors among these children living in OC, CA. Five elementary schools in OC that were predominantly Vietnamese with low socioeconomic status were selected for participation. Validated surveys were sent to parents of all students ages 3-12 in these schools with materials available in English, Vietnamese and Spanish. Surveys included questions to identify the risk of asthma and related key factors. Surveys were completed by parents and returned to schools. There were 1530 participants eligible for analysis. Asthma risk was 30.4%, and of these, 22.6% had no prior diagnosis. Contributing factors to identification of those at risk were male gender (p < 0.001), preferred use of the Vietnamese language (p = 0.004), longer duration in the United States (p = 0.019), and smoker in the household (p = 0.015). The prevalence of asthma risk in our community of low socioeconomic status Vietnamese children was found to be higher than commonly appreciated. Furthermore, a considerable number of these children had not been previously diagnosed. Given the limited information in this population, our current findings of asthma risk and key contributing factors could affect health care policies that allow appropriate funding for programs dedicated to asthma care in this and other growing population.

Understanding risk behaviours: how the sociology of deviance may contribute? The case of drug-taking.

PubMed

Peretti-Watel, Patrick; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2006-08-01

This paper argues that the sociology of deviance can be used to improve our understanding of some difficulties and unintended effects of health-promotion interventions designed to change risk behaviours, especially drug-taking. Firstly, many people engaged in 'risk behaviours' tend to deny the 'risky' label just as delinquents neutralise the 'deviant' label, and preventive information itself may be used by individuals in shaping risk denial. Secondly, deliberate risk-taking may be an 'innovative deviance',which is related to difficulties of conforming to the dominant 'risk culture'. Health promotion is likely to be quite ineffective if it remains wedded to the dominant risk culture and de facto contributes to the spread of it.

Risk factors for osteoarthritis and contributing factors to current arthritic pain in South Korean older adults.

PubMed

Lee, Kyoung Min; Chung, Chin Youb; Sung, Ki Hyuk; Lee, Seung Yeol; Won, Sung Hun; Kim, Tae Gyun; Choi, Young; Kwon, Soon Sun; Kim, Yeon Ho; Park, Moon Seok

2015-01-01

Although previous studies have focused on risk factors for osteoarthritis, there is some debate on this issue. Furthermore, associated factors with arthritic symptom (arthralgia) have not been sufficiently investigated, despite its clinical importance in the management of osteoarthritis. This study was performed to examine the risk factors for osteoarthritis and the contributing factors to current arthritic pain in older adults. The Fourth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys was conducted in 2009. Therein, 720 males and 1008 females aged 65 years and older were included. Comprehensive data on habitual, socioeconomic, medical, nutritional, and psychological factors were collected along with the presence of osteoarthritis and arthritic pain. After univariate analysis, binary logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for osteoarthritis and contributing factors to current arthritic pain. Age (p=0.005), female gender (p<0.001), higher body mass index (BMI) (p<0.001), and osteoporosis (p<0.001) were significant risk factors for osteoarthritis, while higher education level (p=0.025) was a protective factor for osteoarthritis. Higher BMI (p=0.047), lack of weekly moderate intensity activity (p<0.001), and unfavorable subjective health status (p<0.001) were significant factors contributing to current arthritic pain among subjects with osteoarthritis. Both osteoarthritis and current arthritic pain adversely affected health related quality of life. Higher BMI, lack of weekly moderate intensity activity, and unfavorable subjective health status were significant factors contributing to current arthritic pain. More attention needs to be paid to psychiatric effects on osteoarthritis and joint related pain.

Chemometrics in analytical chemistry-part I: history, experimental design and data analysis tools.

PubMed

Brereton, Richard G; Jansen, Jeroen; Lopes, João; Marini, Federico; Pomerantsev, Alexey; Rodionova, Oxana; Roger, Jean Michel; Walczak, Beata; Tauler, Romà

2017-10-01

Chemometrics has achieved major recognition and progress in the analytical chemistry field. In the first part of this tutorial, major achievements and contributions of chemometrics to some of the more important stages of the analytical process, like experimental design, sampling, and data analysis (including data pretreatment and fusion), are summarised. The tutorial is intended to give a general updated overview of the chemometrics field to further contribute to its dissemination and promotion in analytical chemistry.

Pre-Analytical Components of Risk in Four Branches of Clinical Laboratory in Romania--Prospective Study.

PubMed

David, Remona E; Dobreanu, Minodora

2016-01-01

Development of quality measurement principles is a strategic point for each clinical laboratory. Preexamination process is the most critical and the most difficult to be managed. The aim of this study is to identify, quantify, and monitor the nonconformities of the pre-analytical process using quality indicators that can affect the patient's health safety in four different locations of a Romanian private clinical laboratory. The study group consisted of all the analysis requests received by the departments of biochemistry, hematology, and coagulation from January through March 2015. In order to collect the pre-analytical nonconformities, we created a "Risk Budget", using the entries from the "Evidence notebook--non-conform samples" from the above mentioned departments. The laboratory established the quality indicators by means of the risk management technique in order to identify and control the sources of errors, FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analyses), which had been implemented and monitored for its purposes and special needs. For the assessment of the control level over the processes, the results were transformed on the Six Sigma scale, using the Westgard calculation method and being obtained in this way the frequency with which an error may occur. (https://www.westgard. com/six-sigma-calculators.htm). The obtained results prove that the quantification and monitoring of the indicators can be a control instrument for the pre-analytic activities. The calculation of the Six Sigma value adds extra information to the study because it allows the detection of the processes which need improvement (Sigma value higher than 4 represents a well controlled process). The highest rates were observed for the hemolyzed and the lipemic samples, in the department of biochemistry and hemolyzed, insufficient sample volume, or clotted samples for the department of hematology and coagulation. Significant statistical differences between laboratories participating in the study have

Analytical and Experimental Study of Near-Threshold Interactions Between Crack Closure Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, John A.; Riddell, William T.; Piascik, Robert S.

2003-01-01

The results of an analytical closure model that considers contributions and interactions between plasticity-, roughness-, and oxide-induced crack closure mechanisms are presented and compared with experimental data. The analytical model is shown to provide a good description of the combined influences of crack roughness, oxide debris, and plasticity in the near-threshold regime. Furthermore, analytical results indicate that closure mechanisms interact in a non-linear manner such that the total amount of closure is not the sum of closure contributions for each mechanism.

Understanding children's injury-risk behaviors: the independent contributions of cognitions and emotions.

PubMed

Morrongiello, Barbara A; Lasenby-Lessard, Jennifer; Matheis, Shawn

2007-09-01

Unintentional injuries are a leading threat to the health of elementary-school children, with many injuries happening when children are left to make their own decisions about risk taking during play. The present study sought to identify determinants of children's physical taking. An ecologically valid task that posed some threat of injury was used (i.e., highest height of a balance beam they would walk across). Ratings of cognitions (extent of danger, perceived vulnerability for personal injury, potential severity of injury) and emotional reactions (fear, excitement) were taken when on the beam, just before the children walked across. Regression analysis, controlling for age and sex, revealed that risk taking was predicted from ratings of danger, fear, and excitement. Both cognitive and emotional factors independently contribute to predict children's physical risk taking. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

PubMed

Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

Targeting adolescent risk-taking behaviors: the contributions of egocentrism and sensation-seeking.

PubMed

Greene, K; Krcmar, M; Walters, L H; Rubin, D L; Jerold; Hale, L

2000-08-01

Tremendous resources are spent each year developing programs and messages targeting adolescent risk behavior. Adolescents are often reasonably well educated about methods for health promotion such as preventing HIV infection, yet they fail to act accordingly. One widely used individual difference variable, sensation-seeking, has been incorporated in health message design to some extent, but it fails to take development into account. Research on adolescent egocentrism suggests adolescents experience personal fable which can lead to an exaggerated sense of invulnerability. The present study sampled adolescents and college students to examine relative contributions of egocentrism and sensation-seeking to risk-taking behavior. Results indicate a latent factor labeled risk-seeking (primarily indicated by disinhibition and risk-taking personality, and to a lesser degree by invulnerability, experience-seeking, boredom susceptibility, and thrill and adventure-seeking) indeed predicted a latent factor labeled delinquent behavior (primarily indicated by alcohol consumption and delinquency, and to a lesser degree by drug use, drinking and driving, and risky driving). Other results indicate consistently high personal fable combined with high sensation-seeking explained most risk-taking behavior. Implications and directions for future research are discussed. Copyright 2000 The Association for Professionals in Services for Adolescents.

Risk assessment of urban flood disaster in Jingdezhen City based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, D. C.; Huang, J.; Wang, H. M.; Wang, Z. Q.; Wang, W. Q.

2017-08-01

The research of urban flood risk assessment and management are of great academic and practical importance, which has become a widespread concern throughout the world. It’s significant to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk before making the risk response measures. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City is selected as the study area. The assessment indicators are selected from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability, by consideration of the formation process of urban flood risk. And then, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model is developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of flood risk in Jingdezhen City is analysed. The results show that the risk decreases gradually from the centre line of Changjiang River to the surrounding, and the areas of high flood disaster risk is decreasing from 2010 to 2013 while the risk areas are more concentred. The flood risk of the areas along the Changjiang River is the largest, followed by the low-lying areas in Changjiang District. And the risk is also large in Zhushan District where the population, the industries and commerce are concentrated. The flood risk in the western part of Changjiang District and the north-eastern part of the study area is relatively low. The results can provide scientific support for flood control construction and land development planning in Jingdezhen City.

Learning Analytics for Online Discussions: Embedded and Extracted Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wise, Alyssa Friend; Zhao, Yuting; Hausknecht, Simone Nicole

2014-01-01

This paper describes an application of learning analytics that builds on an existing research program investigating how students contribute and attend to the messages of others in asynchronous online discussions. We first overview the E-Listening research program and then explain how this work was translated into analytics that students and…

Analytical and assay issues for use of cardiac troponin testing for risk stratification in primary care.

PubMed

Wu, Alan H B; Christenson, Robert H

2013-08-01

Cardiac troponin is the standard marker for diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction and risk stratification of patients who present to an emergency department with signs and symptoms of acute cardiac ischemia. Over the past few years, the analytical sensitivity of assays for cardiac troponin has improved significantly to the point where a detectable amount of troponin can be measured in essentially all healthy subjects. Recent studies have shown that use of a highly sensitive troponin assays may provide value to traditional markers of primary disease risk for patients, i.e., for those who have no history of heart disease. There are barriers to the adoption of cardiac troponin for screening high risk cohorts such as the elderly, diabetics and perhaps even the asymptomatic population. Strategies used for the assignment of cutoff concentrations in acute care, i.e., the 99 th percentile, may not be appropriate for primary care as changes over baseline levels may provide more accurate information of risk than cross-sectional results. A review of biological variation has shown that cardiac troponin as a biomarker has low index of individuality, indicating that reference values are of little utility. Whether or not cardiac troponin can be released in reversible injury is a debate that could have significance for detecting minor myocardial injury. A major hurdle for use of troponin in primary care is the lack of assay standardization and nomenclature for the different generations of troponin assays. Standardization requires knowledge of what is released after cardiac injury and what the various cardiac troponin assays are measuring. Currently it is not clear if the cardiac troponin release after ischemic injury is identical to that in circulation of healthy individuals. This may affect the design of future assays and standardization approaches. There is potential that a marker of myocardial injury such as troponin can add to the value of existing indicators and biomarkers

Evaluation of generic types of drilling fluid using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process.

PubMed

Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir; Veitch, Brian; Bose, Neil

2003-12-01

The composition of drilling muds is based on a mixture of clays and additives in a base fluid. There are three generic categories of base fluid--water, oil, and synthetic. Water-based fluids (WBFs) are relatively environmentally benign, but drilling performance is better with oil-based fluids (OBFs). The oil and gas industry developed synthetic-based fluids (SBFs), such as vegetable esters, olefins, ethers, and others, which provide drilling performance comparable to OBFs, but with lower environmental and occupational health effects. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology to guide decision-making in the selection and evaluation of three generic types of drilling fluids using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this paper a comparison of drilling fluids is made considering various activities involved in the life cycle of drilling fluids. This paper evaluates OBFs, WBFs, and SBFs based on four major impacts--operations, resources, economics, and liabilities. Four major activities--drilling, discharging offshore, loading and transporting, and disposing onshore--cause the operational impacts. Each activity involves risks related to occupational injuries (safety), general public health, environmental impact, and energy use. A multicriteria analysis strategy was used for the selection and evaluation of drilling fluids using a risk-based AHP. A four-level hierarchical structure is developed to determine the final relative scores, and the SBFs are found to be the best option.

Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

2016-04-01

In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

Monitoring environmental risk in fibrous minerals in New Caledonia: a comparison between different analytical methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petriglieri, Jasmine Rita; Laporte-Magoni, Christine; Salvioli-Mariani, Emma; Gunkel-Grillon, Peggy; Tribaudino, Mario; Mantovani, Luciana; Bersani, Danilo; Lottici, Pier Paolo; Tomatis, Maura

2017-04-01

The New Caledonia is covered by ultrabasic units for more than a third of its surface, and it is one of the largest world producers of nickel ore. Mining activity, focused on extraction from lateritic ore deposits formed by the alteration of ultramafic rocks, must deal with the natural occurrence of asbestos and fibrous minerals. Almost all outcrops of geological units in open mines contain serpentine and amphibole, also as asbestos varieties (Lahondère, 2007). Owing to humid tropical to sub-tropical conditions, weathering processes and supergene mineralization are one of the main responsible for fibrogenesis of asbestos minerals. The presence of fibrous minerals in mining and storage sites requires attention due to public health problems and for the safety of the operators. In this context, the evaluation of risk and health hazard to prevent the effects due to exposition is closely linked to the formation, alteration and release of fibers into the environment. It has been demonstrated that different fibrous minerals have different toxicity (Fubini & Otero-Arean, 1999; Fubini & Fenoglio, 2007). An analytical strategy to discriminate and characterize, with certainty, the different varieties of the asbestiform phases is required to the establishment of an environmental monitoring system. We have therefore analyzed by different methods a set of about fifty asbestos sampled for mapping environmental risk in fibrous minerals in New Caledonia. The samples contain serpentines (chrysotile, antigorite) and amphibole (tremolite), all fibrous and have been sorted by their different degree of alteration. Data obtained with the more traditional mineralogical and petrological analytical techniques - such as optical microscopy, X-ray diffraction, secondary electron microscopy (SEM-EDS), and transmission electron microscopy - have been completed by the employment of more specialized tools as phase contrast microscopy (PCM), Raman spectroscopy, and thermal analysis (DTA). Moreover

Synthesizing evidence on complex interventions: how meta-analytical, qualitative, and mixed-method approaches can contribute.

PubMed

Petticrew, Mark; Rehfuess, Eva; Noyes, Jane; Higgins, Julian P T; Mayhew, Alain; Pantoja, Tomas; Shemilt, Ian; Sowden, Amanda

2013-11-01

Although there is increasing interest in the evaluation of complex interventions, there is little guidance on how evidence from complex interventions may be reviewed and synthesized, and the relevance of the plethora of evidence synthesis methods to complexity is unclear. This article aims to explore how different meta-analytical approaches can be used to examine aspects of complexity; describe the contribution of various narrative, tabular, and graphical approaches to synthesis; and give an overview of the potential choice of selected qualitative and mixed-method evidence synthesis approaches. The methodological discussions presented here build on a 2-day workshop held in Montebello, Canada, in January 2012, involving methodological experts from the Campbell and Cochrane Collaborations and from other international review centers (Anderson L, Petticrew M, Chandler J, et al. systematic reviews of complex interventions. In press). These systematic review methodologists discussed the broad range of existing methods and considered the relevance of these methods to reviews of complex interventions. The evidence from primary studies of complex interventions may be qualitative or quantitative. There is a wide range of methodological options for reviewing and presenting this evidence. Specific contributions of statistical approaches include the use of meta-analysis, meta-regression, and Bayesian methods, whereas narrative summary approaches provide valuable precursors or alternatives to these. Qualitative and mixed-method approaches include thematic synthesis, framework synthesis, and realist synthesis. A suitable combination of these approaches allows synthesis of evidence for understanding complex interventions. Reviewers need to consider which aspects of complex interventions should be a focus of their review and what types of quantitative and/or qualitative studies they will be including, and this will inform their choice of review methods. These may range from

About Skinner and Time: Behavior-Analytic Contributions to Research on Animal Timing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lejeune, Helga; Richelle, Marc; Wearden, J. H.

2006-01-01

The article discusses two important influences of B. F. Skinner, and later workers in the behavior-analytic tradition, on the study of animal timing. The first influence is methodological, and is traced from the invention of schedules imposing temporal constraints or periodicities on animals in "The Behavior of Organisms," through the rate…

The role of light microscopy in aerospace analytical laboratories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crutcher, E. R.

1977-01-01

Light microscopy has greatly reduced analytical flow time and added new dimensions to laboratory capability. Aerospace analytical laboratories are often confronted with problems involving contamination, wear, or material inhomogeneity. The detection of potential problems and the solution of those that develop necessitate the most sensitive and selective applications of sophisticated analytical techniques and instrumentation. This inevitably involves light microscopy. The microscope can characterize and often identify the cause of a problem in 5-15 minutes with confirmatory tests generally less than one hour. Light microscopy has and will make a very significant contribution to the analytical capabilities of aerospace laboratories.

Statistical Approaches to Assess Biosimilarity from Analytical Data.

PubMed

Burdick, Richard; Coffey, Todd; Gutka, Hiten; Gratzl, Gyöngyi; Conlon, Hugh D; Huang, Chi-Ting; Boyne, Michael; Kuehne, Henriette

2017-01-01

Protein therapeutics have unique critical quality attributes (CQAs) that define their purity, potency, and safety. The analytical methods used to assess CQAs must be able to distinguish clinically meaningful differences in comparator products, and the most important CQAs should be evaluated with the most statistical rigor. High-risk CQA measurements assess the most important attributes that directly impact the clinical mechanism of action or have known implications for safety, while the moderate- to low-risk characteristics may have a lower direct impact and thereby may have a broader range to establish similarity. Statistical equivalence testing is applied for high-risk CQA measurements to establish the degree of similarity (e.g., highly similar fingerprint, highly similar, or similar) of selected attributes. Notably, some high-risk CQAs (e.g., primary sequence or disulfide bonding) are qualitative (e.g., the same as the originator or not the same) and therefore not amenable to equivalence testing. For biosimilars, an important step is the acquisition of a sufficient number of unique originator drug product lots to measure the variability in the originator drug manufacturing process and provide sufficient statistical power for the analytical data comparisons. Together, these analytical evaluations, along with PK/PD and safety data (immunogenicity), provide the data necessary to determine if the totality of the evidence warrants a designation of biosimilarity and subsequent licensure for marketing in the USA. In this paper, a case study approach is used to provide examples of analytical similarity exercises and the appropriateness of statistical approaches for the example data.

2002 railroad employee fatalities : an analytical study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-02-01

2002 Railroad Employee Fatalities: An Analytical Study, which is designed to promote and : enhance awareness of many unsafe behaviors and conditions that typically contribute to : railroad employee fatalities. By furthering our understanding of...

The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

2008-09-15

natural gas in the United States over a relatively brief period. Perhaps of most concern is that this dramatic price increase was largely unforeseen. Figure 2 compares the EIA's natural gas wellhead price forecast from each year's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) going back to 1985 against the average US wellhead price that actually transpired. As shown, our forecasting abilities have proven rather dismal over time, as over-forecasts made in the late 1980's eventually yielded to under-forecasts that have persisted to this day. This historical experience demonstrates that little weight should be placed on any one forecast of future natural gas prices, and that a broad range of future price conditions ought to be considered in planning and investment decisions. Against this backdrop of high, volatile, and unpredictable natural gas prices, increasing the market penetration of renewable generation such as wind, solar, and geothermal power may provide economic benefits to ratepayers by displacing gas-fired generation. These benefits may manifest themselves in several ways. First, the displacement of natural gas-fired generation by increased renewable generation reduces ratepayer exposure to natural gas price risk--i.e., the risk that future gas prices (and by extension future electricity prices) may end up markedly different than expected. Second, this displacement reduces demand for natural gas among gas-fired generators, which, all else equal, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices in turn benefit both electric ratepayers and other end-users of natural gas. Using analytic approaches that build upon, yet differ from, the past work of others, including Awerbuch (1993, 1994, 2003), Kahn and Stoft (1993), and Humphreys and McClain (1998), this chapter explores each of these two potential 'hedging' benefits of renewable electricity. Though we do not seek to judge whether these two specific benefits outweigh any incremental cost of renewable energy

1998 railroad employee fatalities : an analytical study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-11-01

"1998 Railroad Employee Fatalities: An Analytical Study," is designed to promote and enhance awareness of many unsafe behaviors and conditions that typically contribute to railroad employee fatalities. By furthering our understanding of the causes of...

Contribution of trochanteric soft tissues to fall force estimates, the factor of risk, and prediction of hip fracture risk.

PubMed

Bouxsein, Mary L; Szulc, Pawel; Munoz, Fracoise; Thrall, Erica; Sornay-Rendu, Elizabeth; Delmas, Pierre D

2007-06-01

We compared trochanteric soft tissue thickness, femoral aBMD, and the ratio of fall force to femoral strength (i.e., factor of risk) in 21 postmenopausal women with incident hip fracture and 42 age-matched controls. Reduced trochanteric soft tissue thickness, low femoral aBMD, and increased ratio of fall force to femoral strength (i.e., factor of risk) were associated with increased risk of hip fracture. The contribution of trochanteric soft tissue thickness to hip fracture risk is incompletely understood. A biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk that compares forces applied to the hip during a sideways fall to femoral strength may by improved by incorporating the force-attenuating effects of trochanteric soft tissues. We determined the relationship between femoral areal BMD (aBMD) and femoral failure load in 49 human cadaveric specimens, 53-99 yr of age. We compared femoral aBMD, trochanteric soft tissue thickness, and the ratio of fall forces to bone strength (i.e., the factor of risk for hip fracture, phi), before and after accounting for the force-attenuating properties of trochanteric soft tissue in 21 postmenopausal women with incident hip fracture and 42 age-matched controls. Femoral aBMD correlated strongly with femoral failure load (r2 = 0.73-0.83). Age, height, and weight did not differ; however, women with hip fracture had lower total femur aBMD (OR = 2.06; 95% CI, 1.19-3.56) and trochanteric soft tissue thickness (OR = 1.82; 95% CI, 1.01, 3.31). Incorporation of trochanteric soft tissue thickness measurements reduced the estimates of fall forces by approximately 50%. After accounting for force-attenuating properties of trochanteric soft tissue, the ratio of fall forces to femoral strength was 50% higher in cases than controls (0.92 +/- 0.44 versus 0.65 +/- 0.50, respectively; p = 0.04). It is possible to compute a biomechanically based estimate of hip fracture risk by combining estimates of femoral strength based on an empirical

Patterns of Therapist Variability: Therapist Effects and the Contribution of Patient Severity and Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saxon, David; Barkham, Michael

2012-01-01

Objective: To investigate the size of therapist effects using multilevel modeling (MLM), to compare the outcomes of therapists identified as above and below average, and to consider how key variables--in particular patient severity and risk and therapist caseload--contribute to therapist variability and outcomes. Method: We used a large…

The case for visual analytics of arsenic concentrations in foods.

PubMed

Johnson, Matilda O; Cohly, Hari H P; Isokpehi, Raphael D; Awofolu, Omotayo R

2010-05-01

Arsenic is a naturally occurring toxic metal and its presence in food could be a potential risk to the health of both humans and animals. Prolonged ingestion of arsenic contaminated water may result in manifestations of toxicity in all systems of the body. Visual Analytics is a multidisciplinary field that is defined as the science of analytical reasoning facilitated by interactive visual interfaces. The concentrations of arsenic vary in foods making it impractical and impossible to provide regulatory limit for each food. This review article presents a case for the use of visual analytics approaches to provide comparative assessment of arsenic in various foods. The topics covered include (i) metabolism of arsenic in the human body; (ii) arsenic concentrations in various foods; (ii) factors affecting arsenic uptake in plants; (ii) introduction to visual analytics; and (iv) benefits of visual analytics for comparative assessment of arsenic concentration in foods. Visual analytics can provide an information superstructure of arsenic in various foods to permit insightful comparative risk assessment of the diverse and continually expanding data on arsenic in food groups in the context of country of study or origin, year of study, method of analysis and arsenic species.

The Case for Visual Analytics of Arsenic Concentrations in Foods

PubMed Central

Johnson, Matilda O.; Cohly, Hari H.P.; Isokpehi, Raphael D.; Awofolu, Omotayo R.

2010-01-01

Arsenic is a naturally occurring toxic metal and its presence in food could be a potential risk to the health of both humans and animals. Prolonged ingestion of arsenic contaminated water may result in manifestations of toxicity in all systems of the body. Visual Analytics is a multidisciplinary field that is defined as the science of analytical reasoning facilitated by interactive visual interfaces. The concentrations of arsenic vary in foods making it impractical and impossible to provide regulatory limit for each food. This review article presents a case for the use of visual analytics approaches to provide comparative assessment of arsenic in various foods. The topics covered include (i) metabolism of arsenic in the human body; (ii) arsenic concentrations in various foods; (ii) factors affecting arsenic uptake in plants; (ii) introduction to visual analytics; and (iv) benefits of visual analytics for comparative assessment of arsenic concentration in foods. Visual analytics can provide an information superstructure of arsenic in various foods to permit insightful comparative risk assessment of the diverse and continually expanding data on arsenic in food groups in the context of country of study or origin, year of study, method of analysis and arsenic species. PMID:20623005

Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Thaler, Thomas

2017-04-01

Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted both in natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooking public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros) were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica) and a rural (Evros) area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodical (rural area) and flash floods (peri-urban area). Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human-environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Thaler, Thomas

2017-06-01

Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros) were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica) and a rural (Evros) area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area) and flash floods (peri-urban area). Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human-environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

[Artistic creativity in the light of Jungian analytical psychology].

PubMed

Trixler, Mátyás; Gáti, Agnes; Tényi, Tamás

2010-01-01

C.G. Jung's analytical psychology points at important issues in the psychological understanding of creativity. The theories of the Collective Unconscious and the Archetypes contributed to important discoveries in the interpretation of artistic creativity. Jung was concerned to show the relevance of Analytical Psychology to the understanding of European Modernism. Our paper deals with a short Jungian interpretation of Csontvary's art, too.

Early Alert of Academically At-Risk Students: An Open Source Analytics Initiative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jayaprakash, Sandeep M.; Moody, Erik W.; Lauría, Eitel J. M.; Regan, James R.; Baron, Joshua D.

2014-01-01

The Open Academic Analytics Initiative (OAAI) is a collaborative, multi-year grant program aimed at researching issues related to the scaling up of learning analytics technologies and solutions across all of higher education. The paper describes the goals and objectives of the OAAI, depicts the process and challenges of collecting, organizing and…

Pre-analytical and analytical variation of drug determination in segmented hair using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Nielsen, Marie Katrine Klose; Johansen, Sys Stybe; Linnet, Kristian

2014-01-01

Assessment of total uncertainty of analytical methods for the measurements of drugs in human hair has mainly been derived from the analytical variation. However, in hair analysis several other sources of uncertainty will contribute to the total uncertainty. Particularly, in segmental hair analysis pre-analytical variations associated with the sampling and segmentation may be significant factors in the assessment of the total uncertainty budget. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a method for the analysis of 31 common drugs in hair using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS) with focus on the assessment of both the analytical and pre-analytical sampling variations. The validated method was specific, accurate (80-120%), and precise (CV≤20%) across a wide linear concentration range from 0.025-25 ng/mg for most compounds. The analytical variation was estimated to be less than 15% for almost all compounds. The method was successfully applied to 25 segmented hair specimens from deceased drug addicts showing a broad pattern of poly-drug use. The pre-analytical sampling variation was estimated from the genuine duplicate measurements of two bundles of hair collected from each subject after subtraction of the analytical component. For the most frequently detected analytes, the pre-analytical variation was estimated to be 26-69%. Thus, the pre-analytical variation was 3-7 folds larger than the analytical variation (7-13%) and hence the dominant component in the total variation (29-70%). The present study demonstrated the importance of including the pre-analytical variation in the assessment of the total uncertainty budget and in the setting of the 95%-uncertainty interval (±2CVT). Excluding the pre-analytical sampling variation could significantly affect the interpretation of results from segmental hair analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resilience Analytics with Application to Power Grid of a Developing Region.

PubMed

Thorisson, Heimir; Lambert, James H; Cardenas, John J; Linkov, Igor

2017-07-01

Infrastructure development of volatile regions is a significant investment by international government and nongovernment organizations, with attendant requirements for risk management. Global development banks may be tasked to manage these investments and provide a channel between donors and borrowers. Moreover, various stakeholders from the private sector, local and international agencies, and the military can be engaged in conception, planning, and implementation of constituent projects. Emergent and future conditions of military conflict, politics, economics, technology, environment, behaviors, institutions, and society that stress infrastructure development are prevalent, and funding mechanisms are vulnerable to fraud, waste, and abuse. This article will apply resilience analytics with scenario-based preferences to identify the stressors that most influence a prioritization of initiatives in the electric power sector of Afghanistan. The resilience in this article is conceived in terms of the degree of disruption of priorities when stressors influence the preferences of stakeholders, and ultimately a prioritization of initiatives. The ancillary results include an understanding of which initiatives contribute most and least across strategic criteria and which criteria have the most impact for the analysis. The article concludes with recommendations for risk monitoring and risk management of the portfolio of stressors through the life cycle and horizon of grid capacity expansion. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Resilience: A Meta-Analytic Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Ji Hee; Nam, Suk Kyung; Kim, A-Reum; Kim, Boram; Lee, Min Young; Lee, Sang Min

2013-01-01

This study investigated the relationship between psychological resilience and its relevant variables by using a meta-analytic method. The results indicated that the largest effect on resilience was found to stem from the protective factors, a medium effect from risk factors, and the smallest effect from demographic factors. (Contains 4 tables.)

Decisions through data: analytics in healthcare.

PubMed

Wills, Mary J

2014-01-01

The amount of data in healthcare is increasing at an astonishing rate. However, in general, the industry has not deployed the level of data management and analysis necessary to make use of those data. As a result, healthcare executives face the risk of being overwhelmed by a flood of unusable data. In this essay I argue that, in order to extract actionable information, leaders must take advantage of the promise of data analytics. Small data, predictive modeling expansion, and real-time analytics are three forms of data analytics. On the basis of my analysis for this study, I recommend all three for adoption. Recognizing the uniqueness of each organization's situation, I also suggest that practices, hospitals, and healthcare systems examine small data and conduct real-time analytics and that large-scale organizations managing populations of patients adopt predictive modeling. I found that all three solutions assist in the collection, management, and analysis of raw data to improve the quality of care and decrease costs.

An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

PubMed

Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

2016-01-01

The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic and Environmental Risk for Chronic Pain and the Contribution of Risk Variants for Major Depressive Disorder: A Family-Based Mixed-Model Analysis

PubMed Central

McIntosh, Andrew M.; Zeng, Yanni; Davies, Gail; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Hayward, Caroline; Haley, Chris S.; Porteous, David J.; Deary, Ian J.; Smith, Daniel J.; Hinds, David A.; Jones, Amy V.; Scollen, Serena; Meng, Weihua; Hocking, Lynne J.

2016-01-01

Background Chronic pain is highly prevalent and a significant source of disability, yet its genetic and environmental risk factors are poorly understood. Its relationship with major depressive disorder (MDD) is of particular importance. We sought to test the contribution of genetic factors and shared and unique environment to risk of chronic pain and its correlation with MDD in Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS). We then sought to replicate any significant findings in the United Kingdom Biobank study. Methods and Findings Using family-based mixed-model analyses, we examined the contribution of genetics and shared family environment to chronic pain by spouse, sibling, and household relationships. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS (n = 23,960), a family- and population-based study of individuals recruited from the Scottish population through their general practitioners. We then examined and partitioned the correlation between chronic pain and MDD and estimated the contribution of genetic factors and shared environment in GS:SFHS. Finally, we used data from two independent genome-wide association studies to test whether chronic pain has a polygenic architecture and examine whether genomic risk of psychiatric disorder predicted chronic pain and whether genomic risk of chronic pain predicted MDD. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS and repeated in UK Biobank, a study of 500,000 from the UK population, of whom 112,151 had genotyping and phenotypic data. Chronic pain is a moderately heritable trait (heritability = 38.4%, 95% CI 33.6% to 43.9%) that is significantly concordant in spouses (variance explained 18.7%, 95% CI 9.5% to 25.1%). Chronic pain is positively correlated with depression (ρ = 0.13, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.15, p = 2.72x10-68) and shows a tendency to cluster within families for genetic reasons (genetic correlation = 0.51, 95%CI 0.40 to 0.62, p = 8.24x10-19). Polygenic risk profiles for pain, generated using independent GWAS

Genetic and Environmental Risk for Chronic Pain and the Contribution of Risk Variants for Major Depressive Disorder: A Family-Based Mixed-Model Analysis.

PubMed

McIntosh, Andrew M; Hall, Lynsey S; Zeng, Yanni; Adams, Mark J; Gibson, Jude; Wigmore, Eleanor; Hagenaars, Saskia P; Davies, Gail; Fernandez-Pujals, Ana Maria; Campbell, Archie I; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Hayward, Caroline; Haley, Chris S; Porteous, David J; Deary, Ian J; Smith, Daniel J; Nicholl, Barbara I; Hinds, David A; Jones, Amy V; Scollen, Serena; Meng, Weihua; Smith, Blair H; Hocking, Lynne J

2016-08-01

Chronic pain is highly prevalent and a significant source of disability, yet its genetic and environmental risk factors are poorly understood. Its relationship with major depressive disorder (MDD) is of particular importance. We sought to test the contribution of genetic factors and shared and unique environment to risk of chronic pain and its correlation with MDD in Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS). We then sought to replicate any significant findings in the United Kingdom Biobank study. Using family-based mixed-model analyses, we examined the contribution of genetics and shared family environment to chronic pain by spouse, sibling, and household relationships. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS (n = 23,960), a family- and population-based study of individuals recruited from the Scottish population through their general practitioners. We then examined and partitioned the correlation between chronic pain and MDD and estimated the contribution of genetic factors and shared environment in GS:SFHS. Finally, we used data from two independent genome-wide association studies to test whether chronic pain has a polygenic architecture and examine whether genomic risk of psychiatric disorder predicted chronic pain and whether genomic risk of chronic pain predicted MDD. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS and repeated in UK Biobank, a study of 500,000 from the UK population, of whom 112,151 had genotyping and phenotypic data. Chronic pain is a moderately heritable trait (heritability = 38.4%, 95% CI 33.6% to 43.9%) that is significantly concordant in spouses (variance explained 18.7%, 95% CI 9.5% to 25.1%). Chronic pain is positively correlated with depression (ρ = 0.13, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.15, p = 2.72x10-68) and shows a tendency to cluster within families for genetic reasons (genetic correlation = 0.51, 95%CI 0.40 to 0.62, p = 8.24x10-19). Polygenic risk profiles for pain, generated using independent GWAS data, were associated with

A Non-Degenerate Code of Deleterious Variants in Mendelian Loci Contributes to Complex Disease Risk

PubMed Central

Blair, David R.; Lyttle, Christopher S.; Mortensen, Jonathan M.; Bearden, Charles F.; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Khiabanian, Hossein; Melamed, Rachel; Rabadan, Raul; Bernstam, Elmer V.; Brunak, Søren; Jensen, Lars Juhl; Nicolae, Dan; Shah, Nigam H.; Grossman, Robert L.; Cox, Nancy J.; White, Kevin P.; Rzhetsky, Andrey

2013-01-01

Summary Whereas countless highly penetrant variants have been associated with Mendelian disorders, the genetic etiologies underlying complex diseases remain largely unresolved. Here, we examine the extent to which Mendelian variation contributes to complex disease risk by mining the medical records of over 110 million patients. We detect thousands of associations between Mendelian and complex diseases, revealing a non-degenerate, phenotypic code that links each complex disorder to a unique collection of Mendelian loci. Using genome-wide association results, we demonstrate that common variants associated with complex diseases are enriched in the genes indicated by this “Mendelian code.” Finally, we detect hundreds of comorbidity associations among Mendelian disorders, and we use probabilistic genetic modeling to demonstrate that Mendelian variants likely contribute non-additively to the risk for a subset of complex diseases. Overall, this study illustrates a complementary approach for mapping complex disease loci and provides unique predictions concerning the etiologies of specific diseases. PMID:24074861

The rise of environmental analytical chemistry as an interdisciplinary activity.

PubMed

Brown, Richard

2009-07-01

Modern scientific endeavour is increasingly delivered within an interdisciplinary framework. Analytical environmental chemistry is a long-standing example of an interdisciplinary approach to scientific research where value is added by the close cooperation of different disciplines. This editorial piece discusses the rise of environmental analytical chemistry as an interdisciplinary activity and outlines the scope of the Analytical Chemistry and the Environmental Chemistry domains of TheScientificWorldJOURNAL (TSWJ), and the appropriateness of TSWJ's domain format in covering interdisciplinary research. All contributions of new data, methods, case studies, and instrumentation, or new interpretations and developments of existing data, case studies, methods, and instrumentation, relating to analytical and/or environmental chemistry, to the Analytical and Environmental Chemistry domains, are welcome and will be considered equally.

Introduced Siberian chipmunks (Tamias sibiricus barberi) contribute more to lyme borreliosis risk than native reservoir rodents.

PubMed

Marsot, Maud; Chapuis, Jean-Louis; Gasqui, Patrick; Dozières, Anne; Masséglia, Sébastien; Pisanu, Benoit; Ferquel, Elisabeth; Vourc'h, Gwenaël

2013-01-01

The variation of the composition in species of host communities can modify the risk of disease transmission. In particular, the introduction of a new host species can increase health threats by adding a new reservoir and/or by amplifying the circulation of either exotic or native pathogens. Lyme borreliosis is a multi-host vector-borne disease caused by bacteria belonging to the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato complex. It is transmitted by the bite of hard ticks, especially Ixodes ricinus in Europe. Previous studies showed that the Siberian chipmunk, Tamias sibiricus barberi, an introduced ground squirrel in the Forest of Sénart (near Paris, France) was highly infested by I. ricinus, and consequently infected by B. burgdorferi sl. An index of the contribution of chipmunks to the density of infected questing nymphs on the vegetation (i.e., the acarological risk for humans) was compared to that of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) and of wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), two known native and sympatric competent reservoir hosts. Chipmunks produced nearly 8.5 times more infected questing nymphs than voles and mice. Furthermore, they contribute to a higher diversity of B. burgdorferi sl genospecies (B. afzelii, B. burgdorferi sensu stricto and B. garinii). The contribution of chipmunks varied between years and seasons, according to tick availability. As T. s. barberi must be a competent reservoir, it should amplify B. burgdorferi sl infection, hence increasing the risk of Lyme borreliosis in humans.

Introduced Siberian Chipmunks (Tamias sibiricus barberi) Contribute More to Lyme Borreliosis Risk than Native Reservoir Rodents

PubMed Central

Marsot, Maud; Chapuis, Jean-Louis; Gasqui, Patrick; Dozières, Anne; Masséglia, Sébastien; Pisanu, Benoit; Ferquel, Elisabeth; Vourc’h, Gwenaël

2013-01-01

The variation of the composition in species of host communities can modify the risk of disease transmission. In particular, the introduction of a new host species can increase health threats by adding a new reservoir and/or by amplifying the circulation of either exotic or native pathogens. Lyme borreliosis is a multi-host vector-borne disease caused by bacteria belonging to the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato complex. It is transmitted by the bite of hard ticks, especially Ixodes ricinus in Europe. Previous studies showed that the Siberian chipmunk, Tamias sibiricus barberi, an introduced ground squirrel in the Forest of Sénart (near Paris, France) was highly infested by I. ricinus, and consequently infected by B. burgdorferi sl. An index of the contribution of chipmunks to the density of infected questing nymphs on the vegetation (i.e., the acarological risk for humans) was compared to that of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) and of wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), two known native and sympatric competent reservoir hosts. Chipmunks produced nearly 8.5 times more infected questing nymphs than voles and mice. Furthermore, they contribute to a higher diversity of B. burgdorferi sl genospecies (B. afzelii, B. burgdorferi sensu stricto and B. garinii). The contribution of chipmunks varied between years and seasons, according to tick availability. As T. s. barberi must be a competent reservoir, it should amplify B. burgdorferi sl infection, hence increasing the risk of Lyme borreliosis in humans. PMID:23383170

Fundamentals of Sports Analytics.

PubMed

Wasserman, Erin B; Herzog, Mackenzie M; Collins, Christy L; Morris, Sarah N; Marshall, Stephen W

2018-07-01

Recently, the importance of statistics and analytics in sports has increased. This review describes measures of sports injury and fundamentals of sports injury research with a brief overview of some of the emerging measures of sports performance. We describe research study designs that can be used to identify risk factors for injury, injury surveillance programs, and common measures of injury risk and association. Finally, we describe measures of physical performance and training and considerations for using these measures. This review provides sports medicine clinicians with an understanding of current research measures and considerations for designing sports injury research studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analytical Chemistry for Homeland Defense and National Security

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

S.Randolph Long; Dan rock; Gary Eiceman

2002-08-18

The budget was requested to support speaker expenses to attend and speak in the day long symposium at the ACS meeting. The purpose of the symposium was to encourage analytical chemists to contribute to national security.

Evaluation of soil erosion risk using Analytic Network Process and GIS: a case study from Spanish mountain olive plantations.

PubMed

Nekhay, Olexandr; Arriaza, Manuel; Boerboom, Luc

2009-07-01

The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.

The contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe: A big call to practitioners

PubMed Central

Munsaka, Edson

2018-01-01

This article examined the contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe. The current discourse underrates the use of indigenous knowledge of communities by practitioners when dealing with disasters’, as the knowledge is often viewed as outdated and primitive. This study, which was conducted in 2016, sought to examine this problem through analysing the potential contribution of indigenous knowledge as a useful disaster risk reduction intervention. Tsholotsho district in Matabeleland, North province of Zimbabwe, which frequently experiences perennial devastating floods, was used as a case study. Interviews and researcher observations were used to gather data from 40 research participants. The findings were that communities understand weather patterns and could predict imminent flooding after studying trees and clouds, and the behaviours of certain animal species. Local communities also use available local resources to put structural measures in place as part of disaster risk reduction interventions. Despite this important potential, the study found that the indigenous knowledge of disaster risk reduction of the communities is often shunned by practitioners. The practitioners claim that indigenous knowledge lacks documentation, it is not found in all generational classes, it is contextualised to particular communities and the knowledge cannot be scientifically validated. The study concluded that both local communities and disaster risk reduction practitioners can benefit from the indigenous knowledge of communities. This research has the potential to benefit communities, policymakers and disaster risk reduction practitioners.

Using predictive analytics and big data to optimize pharmaceutical outcomes.

PubMed

Hernandez, Inmaculada; Zhang, Yuting

2017-09-15

The steps involved, the resources needed, and the challenges associated with applying predictive analytics in healthcare are described, with a review of successful applications of predictive analytics in implementing population health management interventions that target medication-related patient outcomes. In healthcare, the term big data typically refers to large quantities of electronic health record, administrative claims, and clinical trial data as well as data collected from smartphone applications, wearable devices, social media, and personal genomics services; predictive analytics refers to innovative methods of analysis developed to overcome challenges associated with big data, including a variety of statistical techniques ranging from predictive modeling to machine learning to data mining. Predictive analytics using big data have been applied successfully in several areas of medication management, such as in the identification of complex patients or those at highest risk for medication noncompliance or adverse effects. Because predictive analytics can be used in predicting different outcomes, they can provide pharmacists with a better understanding of the risks for specific medication-related problems that each patient faces. This information will enable pharmacists to deliver interventions tailored to patients' needs. In order to take full advantage of these benefits, however, clinicians will have to understand the basics of big data and predictive analytics. Predictive analytics that leverage big data will become an indispensable tool for clinicians in mapping interventions and improving patient outcomes. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Contributions of vitamin D response elements and HLA promoters to multiple sclerosis risk.

PubMed

Nolan, David; Castley, Alison; Tschochner, Monika; James, Ian; Qiu, Wei; Sayer, David; Christiansen, Frank T; Witt, Campbell; Mastaglia, Frank; Carroll, William; Kermode, Allan

2012-08-07

The identification of a vitamin D-responsive (VDRE) motif within the HLA-DRB1*15:01 promoter region provides an attractive explanation for the combined effects of HLA-DR inheritance and vitamin D exposure on multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. We therefore sought to incorporate HLA-DRB1 promoter variation, including the VDRE motif, in an assessment of HLA-DRB1-associated MS risk. We utilized 32 homozygous HLA cell lines (covering 17 DRB1 alleles) and 53 heterozygote MS samples (20 DRB1 alleles) for HLA-DRB1 promoter sequencing. The influence of HLA-DRB1 variation on MS risk was then assessed among 466 MS cases and 498 controls. The majority of HLA*DRB1 alleles (including HLA-DRB1*15:01) express the functional VDRE motif, apart from HLA-DRB1*04, *07, and *09 alleles that comprise the HLA-DR53 serologic group. Allele-specific variation within functional X-box and Y-box motifs was also associated with serologically defined HLA-DR haplotypes. Incorporating these results in an analysis of MS risk, we identified a strong protective effect of HLA-DRB1*04, *07, and *09 (DR53) alleles (p = 10(-12)) and elevated risk associated with DRB1*15 and *16 (DR51) and *08 (DR8) alleles (p < 10(-18)). HLA-DRB1 groups corresponding to serologic HLA-DR profiles as well as promoter polymorphism haplotypes effectively stratified MS risk over an 11-fold range, suggesting functional relationships between risk-modifying HLA-DRB1 alleles. An independent contribution of VDRE motif variation to increase MS risk was not discernible, although vitamin D-dependent regulation of HLA-DR expression may still play an important role given that HLA-DRB1*04/*07/*09 (DR53) alleles that express the "nonresponsive" VDRE motif were associated with significantly reduced risk of MS.

Contribution of Established Stroke Risk Factors to the Burden of Stroke in Young Adults.

PubMed

Aigner, Annette; Grittner, Ulrike; Rolfs, Arndt; Norrving, Bo; Siegerink, Bob; Busch, Markus A

2017-07-01

As stroke in young adults is assumed to have different etiologies and risk factors than in older populations, the aim of this study was to examine the contribution of established potentially modifiable cardiovascular risk factors to the burden of stroke in young adults. A German nationwide case-control study based on patients enrolled in the SIFAP1 study (Stroke In Young Fabry Patients) 2007 to 2010 and controls from the population-based GEDA study (German Health Update) 2009 to 2010 was performed. Cases were 2125 consecutive patients aged 18 to 55 years with acute first-ever stroke from 26 clinical stroke centers; controls (age- and sex-matched, n=8500, without previous stroke) were from a nationwide community sample. Adjusted population-attributable risks of 8 risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, smoking, heavy episodic alcohol consumption, low physical activity, and obesity) and their combinations for all stroke, ischemic stroke, and primary intracerebral hemorrhage were calculated. Low physical activity and hypertension were the most important risk factors, accounting for 59.7% (95% confidence interval, 56.3-63.2) and 27.1% (95% confidence interval, 23.6-30.6) of all strokes, respectively. All 8 risk factors combined explained 78.9% (95% confidence interval, 76.3-81.4) of all strokes. Population-attributable risks of all risk factors were similar for all ischemic stroke subtypes. Population-attributable risks of most risk factors were higher in older age groups and in men. Modifiable risk factors previously established in older populations also account for a large part of stroke in younger adults, with 4 risk factors explaining almost 80% of stroke risk. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00414583. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Prioritization of Clinical Risk Factors of Obstructive Sleep Apnea Severity Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

PubMed Central

Maranate, Thaya; Pongpullponsak, Adisak; Ruttanaumpawan, Pimon

2015-01-01

Recently, there has been a problem of shortage of sleep laboratories that can accommodate the patients in a timely manner. Delayed diagnosis and treatment may lead to worse outcomes particularly in patients with severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). For this reason, the prioritization in polysomnography (PSG) queueing should be endorsed based on disease severity. To date, there have been conflicting data whether clinical information can predict OSA severity. The 1,042 suspected OSA patients underwent diagnostic PSG study at Siriraj Sleep Center during 2010-2011. A total of 113 variables were obtained from sleep questionnaires and anthropometric measurements. The 19 groups of clinical risk factors consisting of 42 variables were categorized into each OSA severity. This study aimed to array these factors by employing Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process approach based on normalized weight vector. The results revealed that the first rank of clinical risk factors in Severe, Moderate, Mild, and No OSA was nighttime symptoms. The overall sensitivity/specificity of the approach to these groups was 92.32%/91.76%, 89.52%/88.18%, 91.08%/84.58%, and 96.49%/81.23%, respectively. We propose that the urgent PSG appointment should include clinical risk factors of Severe OSA group. In addition, the screening for Mild from No OSA patients in sleep center setting using symptoms during sleep is also recommended (sensitivity = 87.12% and specificity = 72.22%). PMID:26221183

Jung in education: a review of historical and contemporary contributions from analytical psychology to the field of education.

PubMed

Gitz-Johansen, Thomas

2016-06-01

The available literature on the influence of Jungian thought on the theory and practice of education leaves the impression that although the work of Carl Jung and analytical psychology have much to offer the field of education, the Jungian influence has so far been slight. While this has certainly been true, the last decade or so has nevertheless witnessed an increased scholarly interest in exploring how analytical psychology may inform and inspire the field of education. As an explanation for this burgeoning interest in Jung, several of the contemporary contributors mention that analytical psychology has the potential of functioning as a counterbalance to the tendencies in Western societies to focus on measurable learning targets and increasingly standardized measures of teaching and assessment. It seems pertinent then to gain an overview of how analytical psychology has so far inspired the field of education and how it may fruitfully continue do so in the future. To this end this paper is structured chronologically, starting with the different phases of Jung's own engagement with the field of education and ending with later post-Jungian applications of his concepts and ideas to education. © 2016, The Society of Analytical Psychology.

Non-additive and epistatic effects of HLA polymorphisms contributing to risk of adult glioma.

PubMed

Zhang, Chenan; de Smith, Adam J; Smirnov, Ivan V; Wiencke, John K; Wiemels, Joseph L; Witte, John S; Walsh, Kyle M

2017-11-01

Although genome-wide association studies have identified several susceptibility loci for adult glioma, little is known regarding the potential contribution of genetic variation in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region to glioma risk. HLA associations have been reported for various malignancies, with many studies investigating selected candidate HLA polymorphisms. However, no systematic analysis has been conducted in glioma patients, and no investigation into potential non-additive effects has been described. We conducted comprehensive genetic analyses of HLA variants among 1746 adult glioma patients and 2312 controls of European-ancestry from the GliomaScan Consortium. Genotype data were generated with the Illumina 660-Quad array, and we imputed HLA alleles using a reference panel of 5225 individuals in the Type 1 Diabetes Genetics Consortium who underwent high-resolution HLA typing via next-generation sequencing. Case-control comparisons were adjusted for population stratification using ancestry-informative principal components. Because alleles in different loci across the HLA region are linked, we created multigene haplotypes consisting of the genes DRB1, DQA1, and DQB1. Although none of the haplotypes were associated with glioma in additive models, inclusion of a dominance term significantly improved the model for multigene haplotype HLA-DRB1*1501-DQA1*0102-DQB1*0602 (P = 0.002). Heterozygous carriers of the haplotype had an increased risk of glioma [odds ratio (OR) 1.23; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.49], while homozygous carriers were at decreased risk compared with non-carriers (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.40-1.01). Our results suggest that the DRB1*1501-DQA1*0102-DQB1*0602 haplotype may contribute to the risk of glioma in a non-additive manner, with the positive dominance effect partly explained by an epistatic interaction with HLA-DRB1*0401-DQA1*0301-DQB1*0301.

PAUSE: Predictive Analytics Using SPARQL-Endpoints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sukumar, Sreenivas R; Ainsworth, Keela; Bond, Nathaniel

2014-07-11

This invention relates to the medical industry and more specifically to methods of predicting risks. With the impetus towards personalized and evidence-based medicine, the need for a framework to analyze/interpret quantitative measurements (blood work, toxicology, etc.) with qualitative descriptions (specialist reports after reading images, bio-medical knowledgebase, etc.) to predict diagnostic risks is fast emerging. We describe a software solution that leverages hardware for scalable in-memory analytics and applies next-generation semantic query tools on medical data.

Contributing risk factors for orthopedic device related infections in sina hospital, tehran, iran.

PubMed

Hadadi, A; Zehtab, M J; Babagolzadeh, H; Ashraf, H

2011-02-01

In spite of decreasing incidence of orthopedic device-related infections to 1%, nowadays, device-related infection still remains a diagnostic, therapeutic and cost-related problem. The objective of this study is to evaluate the contributing risk factors for orthopedic device-related infections in Sina Hospital, Tehran, Iran. Three hundred and thirty patients who underwent orthopedic device implantation from 2002-2006 were enrolled; among them, 110 patients were complicated with infection. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the risk factors for device related infections. Patients with infection were older compared to those without infection. The Staphylococcus aureus was the commonest organism. A correlation was observed between wound infection and external fixation, an underlying health condition, and addiction which were independent risk factors for a device related infection. Orthopedic device-related infection puts a great financial burden on patients and hospital resources and could lead to morbidity and mortality in patients. So, appropriate pre and postoperative wound care for dirty wounds, especially when external fixators are used, and in patients with poor conditions or addiction should be done with more caution.

Towards Actionable Learning Analytics Using Dispositions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tempelaar, Dirk T.; Rienties, Bart; Nguyen, Quan

2017-01-01

Studies in the field of learning analytics (LA) have shown students' demographics and learning management system (LMS) data to be effective identifiers of "at risk" performance. However, insights generated by these predictive models may not be suitable for pedagogically informed interventions due to the inability to explain why students…

Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

PubMed

Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

2014-01-01

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

Neglect and hereditary risk: Their relative contribution to schizophrenia with negative symptomatology.

PubMed

Gallagher, Bernard J; Jones, Brian J

2016-05-01

There is evidence that genetic and environmental stressors contribute to the genesis of schizophrenia. However, the relevant impact of each factor remains unclear. We tested for an interactive effect between childhood neglect and family history of serious mental illness. Data were further analyzed for a possible connection to type of schizophrenic symptoms. Data for the study are taken from the medical records of 641 patients with schizophrenia from a large state hospital in the northeastern United States. Clinical assessments were divided into positive and negative symptomatology through application of the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS), the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms (SAPS) and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Detailed information about childhood neglect and family history of serious mental illness was obtained through Social Service Assessment interviews at intake and during hospital stay. Among clients with no family history of mental illness, childhood neglect does not meaningfully affect the risk of negative versus positive schizophrenia. For clients with such history, on the other hand, neglect significantly raises the risk of schizophrenia with negative symptomatology. Our central finding is that risk for negative symptoms of schizophrenia are elevated by childhood neglect combined with a history of serious mental illness within the family. This is the only report to combine schizophrenic symptoms, familial risk and childhood neglect to date. Implications for primary prevention and treatment are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

An Analysis of Machine- and Human-Analytics in Classification.

PubMed

Tam, Gary K L; Kothari, Vivek; Chen, Min

2017-01-01

In this work, we present a study that traces the technical and cognitive processes in two visual analytics applications to a common theoretic model of soft knowledge that may be added into a visual analytics process for constructing a decision-tree model. Both case studies involved the development of classification models based on the "bag of features" approach. Both compared a visual analytics approach using parallel coordinates with a machine-learning approach using information theory. Both found that the visual analytics approach had some advantages over the machine learning approach, especially when sparse datasets were used as the ground truth. We examine various possible factors that may have contributed to such advantages, and collect empirical evidence for supporting the observation and reasoning of these factors. We propose an information-theoretic model as a common theoretic basis to explain the phenomena exhibited in these two case studies. Together we provide interconnected empirical and theoretical evidence to support the usefulness of visual analytics.

Preablation 131-I scans with SPECT/CT contribute to thyroid cancer risk stratification and 131-I therapy planning.

PubMed

Avram, Anca M; Esfandiari, Nazanene H; Wong, Ka Kit

2015-05-01

The use of preablation diagnostic radioiodine scans for risk stratification and radioiodine therapy planning for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) remains controversial. The objective was to assess the contribution of preablation diagnostic 131-I scans with SPECT/CT (Dx 131-I scan) to (1) the risk stratification and (2) the postoperative management of DTC. The study was designed as a prospective sequential patient series. The study was conducted at a University hospital. Three hundred twenty patients (pts) with DTC (219F; 101M, mean age 47.3 ± 16.4 y, range 10-90) were studied. Using clinical and histopathology information an endocrinologist performed risk stratification and determined postoperative management with respect to radioiodine therapy (RAI) planning. The decision to withhold or to administer RAI, and the recommended low, medium or high therapeutic 131-I activity were recorded. Dx 131-I scans were performed and interpreted by two nuclear medicine physicians as showing thyroid remnant, cervical nodal, or distant metastases. The endocrinologist then reperformed risk stratification and reformulated management after consideration of Dx 131-I scans and stimulated thyroglobulin (Tg) information. Main outcome measures were changes in risk stratification and management after Dx 131-I scans. Detection of unsuspected nodal and distant metastases and elevated stimulated Tg levels resulted in a change in the estimated risk of recurrence in 15% of patients, and management in 31% of patients, as compared to initial risk stratification and management based on histopathology alone. Both imaging data and stimulated thyroglobulin levels acquired at the time of Dx 131-I scans are consequential for 131-I therapy planning, providing information that changes risk stratification in 15% of patients as compared to recurrence risk estimation based on histopathology alone. Dx 131-I scans contribute to risk stratification by defining residual nodal and distant metastatic disease

Analysis of low molecular weight metabolites in tea using mass spectrometry-based analytical methods.

PubMed

Fraser, Karl; Harrison, Scott J; Lane, Geoff A; Otter, Don E; Hemar, Yacine; Quek, Siew-Young; Rasmussen, Susanne

2014-01-01

Tea is the second most consumed beverage in the world after water and there are numerous reported health benefits as a result of consuming tea, such as reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease and many types of cancer. Thus, there is much interest in the chemical composition of teas, for example; defining components responsible for contributing to reported health benefits; defining quality characteristics such as product flavor; and monitoring for pesticide residues to comply with food safety import/export requirements. Covered in this review are some of the latest developments in mass spectrometry-based analytical techniques for measuring and characterizing low molecular weight components of tea, in particular primary and secondary metabolites. The methodology; more specifically the chromatography and detection mechanisms used in both targeted and non-targeted studies, and their main advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Finally, we comment on the latest techniques that are likely to have significant benefit to analysts in the future, not merely in the area of tea research, but in the analytical chemistry of low molecular weight compounds in general.

Contribution of inorganic arsenic sources to population exposure risk on a regional scale.

PubMed

Chou, Wei-Chun; Chen, Jein-Wen; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-07-01

Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) in the human population is associated with various internal cancers and other adverse outcomes. The purpose of this study was to estimate a population-scale exposure risk attributable to iAs consumptions by linking a stochastic physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and biomonitoring data of iAs in urine. The urinary As concentrations were obtained from a total of 1,043 subjects living in an industrial area of Taiwan. The results showed that the study subjects had an iAs exposure risk of 27 % (the daily iAs intake for 27 % study subjects exceeded the WHO-recommended value, 2.1 μg iAs day(-1) kg(-1) body weight). Moreover, drinking water and cooked rice contributed to the iAs exposure risk by 10 and 41 %, respectively. The predicted risks in the current study were 4.82, 27.21, 34.69, and 64.17 %, respectively, among the mid-range of Mexico, Taiwan (this study), Korea, and Bangladesh reported in the literature. In conclusion, we developed a population-scale-based risk model that covered the broad range of iAS exposure by integrating stochastic PBPK modeling and reverse dosimetry to generate probabilistic distribution of As intake corresponding to urinary As measured from the cohort study. The model can also be updated as new urinary As information becomes available.

Development of An Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used by Non-EPA Decision Makers (Final Contractor Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final contractor report entitled, Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non EPA Decision Makers. This contractor report analyzed how ...

The Contribution of Matrix Metalloproteinase-1 Promoter Genotypes in Taiwan Lung Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Shen, Te-Chun; Chang, Wen-Shin; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Chao, Che-Yi; Lin, Yi-Ting; Hsiao, Chieh-Lun; Hsu, Che-Lun; Chen, Wei-Chun; Hsia, Te-Chun; Bau, DA-Tian

2018-01-01

Up-regulation of metallo-proteinase (MMP) proteins has been shown in various types of solid cancers and the genotype of MMP1 has been associated with the risk of solid cancers. The contribution of MMP1 genotype to lung cancer has been investigated in various countries, though, to our knowledge, not in Taiwan. Therefore, in this study, we focused on the contribution of a polymorphism in the promoter region of MMP1 to lung cancer risk in Taiwan population. Genomic DNA was isolated from peripheral blood of 358 patients with lung cancer and 716 healthy individuals (non-cancer patients). MMP1 rs1799750 polymorphic genotypes of each sample were determined using the typical methodology of polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). The percentages of 2G/2G, 1G/2G, and 1G/1G for MMP1 -1607 genotypes were 34.4%, 41.3% and 24.3% in the disease group and 33.9%, 44.0%, and 22.1% in the control group (p trend=0.6298), respectively. The results of carrier comparisons in dominant and recessive models also support the findings that 1G or 2G appears not to be a determinant allelic biomarker for Taiwan lung cancer. The MMP1 -1607 1G allele is a non-significant protective biomarker for lung cancer in Taiwan. Copyright© 2018, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Analytical advances in pharmaceutical impurity profiling.

PubMed

Holm, René; Elder, David P

2016-05-25

Impurities will be present in all drug substances and drug products, i.e. nothing is 100% pure if one looks in enough depth. The current regulatory guidance on impurities accepts this, and for drug products with a dose of less than 2g/day identification of impurities is set at 0.1% levels and above (ICH Q3B(R2), 2006). For some impurities, this is a simple undertaking as generally available analytical techniques can address the prevailing analytical challenges; whereas, for others this may be much more challenging requiring more sophisticated analytical approaches. The present review provides an insight into current development of analytical techniques to investigate and quantify impurities in drug substances and drug products providing discussion of progress particular within the field of chromatography to ensure separation of and quantification of those related impurities. Further, a section is devoted to the identification of classical impurities, but in addition, inorganic (metal residues) and solid state impurities are also discussed. Risk control strategies for pharmaceutical impurities aligned with several of the ICH guidelines, are also discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Generalized Pivotal Quantity Approach to Analytical Method Validation Based on Total Error.

PubMed

Yang, Harry; Zhang, Jianchun

2015-01-01

The primary purpose of method validation is to demonstrate that the method is fit for its intended use. Traditionally, an analytical method is deemed valid if its performance characteristics such as accuracy and precision are shown to meet prespecified acceptance criteria. However, these acceptance criteria are not directly related to the method's intended purpose, which is usually a gurantee that a high percentage of the test results of future samples will be close to their true values. Alternate "fit for purpose" acceptance criteria based on the concept of total error have been increasingly used. Such criteria allow for assessing method validity, taking into account the relationship between accuracy and precision. Although several statistical test methods have been proposed in literature to test the "fit for purpose" hypothesis, the majority of the methods are not designed to protect the risk of accepting unsuitable methods, thus having the potential to cause uncontrolled consumer's risk. In this paper, we propose a test method based on generalized pivotal quantity inference. Through simulation studies, the performance of the method is compared to five existing approaches. The results show that both the new method and the method based on β-content tolerance interval with a confidence level of 90%, hereafter referred to as the β-content (0.9) method, control Type I error and thus consumer's risk, while the other existing methods do not. It is further demonstrated that the generalized pivotal quantity method is less conservative than the β-content (0.9) method when the analytical methods are biased, whereas it is more conservative when the analytical methods are unbiased. Therefore, selection of either the generalized pivotal quantity or β-content (0.9) method for an analytical method validation depends on the accuracy of the analytical method. It is also shown that the generalized pivotal quantity method has better asymptotic properties than all of the current

Harmonization of strategies for the validation of quantitative analytical procedures. A SFSTP proposal--Part I.

PubMed

Hubert, Ph; Nguyen-Huu, J-J; Boulanger, B; Chapuzet, E; Chiap, P; Cohen, N; Compagnon, P-A; Dewé, W; Feinberg, M; Lallier, M; Laurentie, M; Mercier, N; Muzard, G; Nivet, C; Valat, L

2004-11-15

This paper is the first part of a summary report of a new commission of the Société Française des Sciences et Techniques Pharmaceutiques (SFSTP). The main objective of this commission was the harmonization of approaches for the validation of quantitative analytical procedures. Indeed, the principle of the validation of theses procedures is today widely spread in all the domains of activities where measurements are made. Nevertheless, this simple question of acceptability or not of an analytical procedure for a given application, remains incompletely determined in several cases despite the various regulations relating to the good practices (GLP, GMP, ...) and other documents of normative character (ISO, ICH, FDA, ...). There are many official documents describing the criteria of validation to be tested, but they do not propose any experimental protocol and limit themselves most often to the general concepts. For those reasons, two previous SFSTP commissions elaborated validation guides to concretely help the industrial scientists in charge of drug development to apply those regulatory recommendations. If these two first guides widely contributed to the use and progress of analytical validations, they present, nevertheless, weaknesses regarding the conclusions of the performed statistical tests and the decisions to be made with respect to the acceptance limits defined by the use of an analytical procedure. The present paper proposes to review even the bases of the analytical validation for developing harmonized approach, by distinguishing notably the diagnosis rules and the decision rules. This latter rule is based on the use of the accuracy profile, uses the notion of total error and allows to simplify the approach of the validation of an analytical procedure while checking the associated risk to its usage. Thanks to this novel validation approach, it is possible to unambiguously demonstrate the fitness for purpose of a new method as stated in all regulatory

Integrating bioassays and analytical chemistry as an improved approach to support safety assessment of food contact materials.

PubMed

Veyrand, Julien; Marin-Kuan, Maricel; Bezencon, Claudine; Frank, Nancy; Guérin, Violaine; Koster, Sander; Latado, Hélia; Mollergues, Julie; Patin, Amaury; Piguet, Dominique; Serrant, Patrick; Varela, Jesus; Schilter, Benoît

2017-10-01

Food contact materials (FCM) contain chemicals which can migrate into food and result in human exposure. Although it is mandatory to ensure that migration does not endanger human health, there is still no consensus on how to pragmatically assess the safety of FCM since traditional approaches would require extensive toxicological and analytical testing which are expensive and time consuming. Recently, the combination of bioassays, analytical chemistry and risk assessment has been promoted as a new paradigm to identify toxicologically relevant molecules and address safety issues. However, there has been debate on the actual value of bioassays in that framework. In the present work, a FCM anticipated to release the endocrine active chemical 4-nonyphenol (4NP) was used as a model. In a migration study, the leaching of 4NP was confirmed by LC-MS/MS and GC-MS. This was correlated with an increase in both estrogenic and anti-androgenic activities as measured with bioassays. A standard risk assessment indicated that according to the food intake scenario applied, the level of 4NP measured was lower, close or slightly above the acceptable daily intake. Altogether these results show that bioassays could reveal the presence of an endocrine active chemical in a real-case FCM migration study. The levels reported were relevant for safety assessment. In addition, this work also highlighted that bioactivity measured in migrate does not necessarily represent a safety issue. In conclusion, together with analytics, bioassays contribute to identify toxicologically relevant molecules leaching from FCM and enable improved safety assessment.

Micro-optics for microfluidic analytical applications.

PubMed

Yang, Hui; Gijs, Martin A M

2018-02-19

This critical review summarizes the developments in the integration of micro-optical elements with microfluidic platforms for facilitating detection and automation of bio-analytical applications. Micro-optical elements, made by a variety of microfabrication techniques, advantageously contribute to the performance of an analytical system, especially when the latter has microfluidic features. Indeed the easy integration of optical control and detection modules with microfluidic technology helps to bridge the gap between the macroscopic world and chip-based analysis, paving the way for automated and high-throughput applications. In our review, we start the discussion with an introduction of microfluidic systems and micro-optical components, as well as aspects of their integration. We continue with a detailed description of different microfluidic and micro-optics technologies and their applications, with an emphasis on the realization of optical waveguides and microlenses. The review continues with specific sections highlighting the advantages of integrated micro-optical components in microfluidic systems for tackling a variety of analytical problems, like cytometry, nucleic acid and protein detection, cell biology, and chemical analysis applications.

Analytical Models of Legislative Texts for Muslim Scholars

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alwan, Ammar Abdullah Naseh; Yusoff, Mohd Yakubzulkifli Bin Mohd; Al-Hami, Mohammad Said M.

2011-01-01

The significance of the analytical models in traditional Islamic studies is that they contribute in sharpening the intellectual capacity of the students of Islamic studies. Research literature in Islamic studies has descriptive side predominantly; the information is gathered and compiled and rarely analyzed properly. This weakness is because of…

Analytic integrable systems: Analytic normalization and embedding flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiang

In this paper we mainly study the existence of analytic normalization and the normal form of finite dimensional complete analytic integrable dynamical systems. More details, we will prove that any complete analytic integrable diffeomorphism F(x)=Bx+f(x) in (Cn,0) with B having eigenvalues not modulus 1 and f(x)=O(|) is locally analytically conjugate to its normal form. Meanwhile, we also prove that any complete analytic integrable differential system x˙=Ax+f(x) in (Cn,0) with A having nonzero eigenvalues and f(x)=O(|) is locally analytically conjugate to its normal form. Furthermore we will prove that any complete analytic integrable diffeomorphism defined on an analytic manifold can be embedded in a complete analytic integrable flow. We note that parts of our results are the improvement of Moser's one in J. Moser, The analytic invariants of an area-preserving mapping near a hyperbolic fixed point, Comm. Pure Appl. Math. 9 (1956) 673-692 and of Poincaré's one in H. Poincaré, Sur l'intégration des équations différentielles du premier order et du premier degré, II, Rend. Circ. Mat. Palermo 11 (1897) 193-239. These results also improve the ones in Xiang Zhang, Analytic normalization of analytic integrable systems and the embedding flows, J. Differential Equations 244 (2008) 1080-1092 in the sense that the linear part of the systems can be nonhyperbolic, and the one in N.T. Zung, Convergence versus integrability in Poincaré-Dulac normal form, Math. Res. Lett. 9 (2002) 217-228 in the way that our paper presents the concrete expression of the normal form in a restricted case.

Aspartame and Risk of Cancer: A Meta-analytic Review.

PubMed

Mallikarjun, Sreekanth; Sieburth, Rebecca McNeill

2015-01-01

Aspartame (APM) is the most commonly used artificial sweetener and flavor enhancer in the world. There is a rise in concern that APM is carcinogenic due to a variation in the findings of the previous APM carcinogenic bioassays. This article conducts a meta-analytic review of all previous APM carcinogenic bioassays on rodents that were conducted before 31 December 2012. The search yielded 10 original APM carcinogenic bioassays on rodents. The aggregate effect sizes suggest that APM consumption has no significant carcinogenic effect in rodents.

High precision analytical description of the allowed β spectrum shape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayen, Leendert; Severijns, Nathal; Bodek, Kazimierz; Rozpedzik, Dagmara; Mougeot, Xavier

2018-01-01

A fully analytical description of the allowed β spectrum shape is given in view of ongoing and planned measurements. Its study forms an invaluable tool in the search for physics beyond the standard electroweak model and the weak magnetism recoil term. Contributions stemming from finite size corrections, mass effects, and radiative corrections are reviewed. Particular focus is placed on atomic and chemical effects, where the existing description is extended and analytically provided. The effects of QCD-induced recoil terms are discussed, and cross-checks were performed for different theoretical formalisms. Special attention was given to a comparison of the treatment of nuclear structure effects in different formalisms. Corrections were derived for both Fermi and Gamow-Teller transitions, and methods of analytical evaluation thoroughly discussed. In its integrated form, calculated f values were in agreement with the most precise numerical results within the aimed for precision. The need for an accurate evaluation of weak magnetism contributions was stressed, and the possible significance of the oft-neglected induced pseudoscalar interaction was noted. Together with improved atomic corrections, an analytical description was presented of the allowed β spectrum shape accurate to a few parts in 10-4 down to 1 keV for low to medium Z nuclei, thereby extending the work by previous authors by nearly an order of magnitude.

Analytical Chemistry Laboratory. Progress report for FY 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Green, D.W.; Boparai, A.S.; Bowers, D.L.

The purpose of this report is to summarize the activities of the Analytical Chemistry Laboratory (ACL) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) for Fiscal Year (FY) 1996. This annual report is the thirteenth for the ACL. It describes effort on continuing and new projects and contributions of the ACL staff to various programs at ANL. The ACL operates in the ANL system as a full-cost-recovery service center, but has a mission that includes a complementary research and development component: The Analytical Chemistry Laboratory will provide high-quality, cost-effective chemical analysis and related technical support to solve research problems of our clients --more » Argonne National Laboratory, the Department of Energy, and others -- and will conduct world-class research and development in analytical chemistry and its applications. Because of the diversity of research and development work at ANL, the ACL handles a wide range of analytical chemistry problems. Some routine or standard analyses are done, but the ACL usually works with commercial laboratories if our clients require high-volume, production-type analyses. It is common for ANL programs to generate unique problems that require significant development of methods and adaption of techniques to obtain useful analytical data. Thus, much of the support work done by the ACL is very similar to our applied analytical chemistry research.« less

Comparison of the analytical and clinical performances of Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV, Hybrid Capture 2, and DNA Chip assays in gynecology patients.

PubMed

Park, Seungman; Kang, Youjin; Kim, Dong Geun; Kim, Eui-Chong; Park, Sung Sup; Seong, Moon-Woo

2013-08-01

The detection of high-risk (HR) HPV in cervical cancer screening is important for early diagnosis of cervical cancer or pre-cancerous lesions. We evaluated the analytical and clinical performances of 3 HR HPV assays in Gynecology patients. A total of 991 specimens were included in this study: 787 specimens for use with a Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and 204 specimens for a HPV DNA microarray (DNA Chip). All specimens were tested using an Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV assay (Real-time HR), PGMY PCR, and sequence analysis. Clinical sensitivities for severe abnormal cytology (severe than high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) were 81.8% for Real-time HR, 77.3% for HC2, and 66.7% for DNA Chip, and clinical sensitivities for severe abnormal histology (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+) were 91.7% for HC2, 87.5% for Real-time HR, and 73.3% for DNA Chip. As compared to results of the sequence analysis, HC2, Real-time HR, and DNA Chip showed concordance rates of 94.3% (115/122), 90.0% (117/130), and 61.5% (16/26), respectively. The HC2 assay and Real-time HR assay showed comparable results to each other in both clinical and analytical performances, while the DNA Chip assay showed poor clinical and analytical performances. The Real-time HR assay can be a good alternative option for HR HPV testing with advantages of allowing full automation and simultaneous genotyping of HR types 16 and 18. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

PubMed

Boenke, A

2001-12-01

The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

Irregular analytical errors in diagnostic testing - a novel concept.

PubMed

Vogeser, Michael; Seger, Christoph

2018-02-23

-isotope-dilution mass spectrometry methods are increasingly used for pre-market validation of routine diagnostic assays (these tests also involve substantial sets of clinical validation samples). Based on this definition/terminology, we list recognized causes of irregular analytical error as a risk catalog for clinical chemistry in this article. These issues include reproducible individual analytical errors (e.g. caused by anti-reagent antibodies) and non-reproducible, sporadic errors (e.g. errors due to incorrect pipetting volume due to air bubbles in a sample), which can both lead to inaccurate results and risks for patients.

Introduction into Sparks of the Learning Analytics Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pechenizkiy, Mykola; Gaševic, Dragan

2014-01-01

This section offers a compilation of 16 extended abstracts summarizing research of the doctoral students who participated in the Second Learning Analytics Summer Institute (LASI 2014) held at Harvard University in July 2014. The abstracts highlight the motivation, main goals and expected contributions to the field from the ongoing learning…

Analysis of structural dynamic data from Skylab. Volume 2: Skylab analytical and test model data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demchak, L.; Harcrow, H.

1976-01-01

The orbital configuration test modal data, analytical test correlation modal data, and analytical flight configuration modal data are presented. Tables showing the generalized mass contributions (GMCs) for each of the thirty tests modes are given along with the two dimensional mode shape plots and tables of GMCs for the test correlated analytical modes. The two dimensional mode shape plots for the analytical modes and uncoupled and coupled modes of the orbital flight configuration at three development phases of the model are included.

Validating the Use of pPerformance Risk Indices for System-Level Risk and Maturity Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holloman, Sherrica S.

With pressure on the U.S. Defense Acquisition System (DAS) to reduce cost overruns and schedule delays, system engineers' performance is only as good as their tools. Recent literature details a need for 1) objective, analytical risk quantification methodologies over traditional subjective qualitative methods -- such as, expert judgment, and 2) mathematically rigorous system-level maturity assessments. The Mahafza, Componation, and Tippett (2005) Technology Performance Risk Index (TPRI) ties the assessment of technical performance to the quantification of risk of unmet performance; however, it is structured for component- level data as input. This study's aim is to establish a modified TPRI with systems-level data as model input, and then validate the modified index with actual system-level data from the Department of Defense's (DoD) Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs). This work's contribution is the establishment and validation of the System-level Performance Risk Index (SPRI). With the introduction of the SPRI, system-level metrics are better aligned, allowing for better assessment, tradeoff and balance of time, performance and cost constraints. This will allow system engineers and program managers to ultimately make better-informed system-level technical decisions throughout the development phase.

Determination of a risk management primer at petroleum-contaminated sites: developing new human health risk assessment strategy.

PubMed

Park, In-Sun; Park, Jae-Woo

2011-01-30

Total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) is an important environmental contaminant that is toxic to human and environmental receptors. However, human health risk assessment for petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL)-contaminated sites is especially challenging because TPH is not a single compound, but rather a mixture of numerous substances. To address this concern, this study recommends a new human health risk assessment strategy for POL-contaminated sites. The strategy is based on a newly modified TPH fractionation method and includes an improved analytical protocol. The proposed TPH fractionation method is composed of ten fractions (e.g., aliphatic and aromatic EC8-10, EC10-12, EC12-16, EC16-22 and EC22-40). Physicochemical properties and toxicity values of each fraction were newly defined in this study. The stepwise ultrasonication-based analytical process was established to measure TPH fractions. Analytical results were compared with those from the TPH Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG) Direct Method. Better analytical efficiencies in TPH, aliphatic, and aromatic fractions were achieved when contaminated soil samples were analyzed with the new analytical protocol. Finally, a human health risk assessment was performed based on the developed tiered risk assessment framework. Results showed that a detailed quantitative risk assessment should be conducted to determine scientifically and economically appropriate cleanup target levels, although the phase II process is useful for determining the potency of human health risks posed by POL-contamination. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analytical Chemistry Laboratory Progress Report for FY 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Green, D.W.; Boparai, A.S.; Bowers, D.L.

The purpose of this report is to summarize the activities of the Analytical Chemistry Laboratory (ACL) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) for Fiscal Year (FY) 1994 (October 1993 through September 1994). This annual report is the eleventh for the ACL and describes continuing effort on projects, work on new projects, and contributions of the ACL staff to various programs at ANL. The Analytical Chemistry Laboratory is a full-cost-recovery service center, with the primary mission of providing a broad range of analytical chemistry support services to the scientific and engineering programs at ANL. The ACL also has a research program inmore » analytical chemistry, conducts instrumental and methods development, and provides analytical services for governmental, educational, and industrial organizations. The ACL handles a wide range of analytical problems. Some routine or standard analyses are done, but it is common for the Argonne programs to generate unique problems that require significant development of methods and adaption of techniques to obtain useful analytical data. The ACL has four technical groups -- Chemical Analysis, Instrumental Analysis, Organic Analysis, and Environmental Analysis -- which together include about 45 technical staff members. Talents and interests of staff members cross the group lines, as do many projects within the ACL. The Chemical Analysis Group uses wet- chemical and instrumental methods for elemental, compositional, and isotopic determinations in solid, liquid, and gaseous samples and provides specialized analytical services. Major instruments in this group include an ion chromatograph (IC), an inductively coupled plasma/atomic emission spectrometer (ICP/AES), spectrophotometers, mass spectrometers (including gas-analysis and thermal-ionization mass spectrometers), emission spectrographs, autotitrators, sulfur and carbon determinators, and a kinetic phosphorescence uranium analyzer.« less

Separate and interactive contributions of weak inhibitory control and threat sensitivity to prediction of suicide risk.

PubMed

Venables, Noah C; Sellbom, Martin; Sourander, Andre; Kendler, Kenneth S; Joiner, Thomas E; Drislane, Laura E; Sillanmäki, Lauri; Elonheimo, Henrik; Parkkola, Kai; Multimaki, Petteri; Patrick, Christopher J

2015-04-30

Biobehavioral dispositions can serve as valuable referents for biologically oriented research on core processes with relevance to many psychiatric conditions. The present study examined two such dispositional variables-weak response inhibition (or disinhibition; INH-) and threat sensitivity (or fearfulness; THT+)-as predictors of the serious transdiagnostic problem of suicide risk in two samples: male and female outpatients from a U.S. clinic (N=1078), and a population-based male military cohort from Finland (N=3855). INH- and THT+ were operationalized through scores on scale measures of disinhibition and fear/fearlessness, known to be related to DSM-defined clinical conditions and brain biomarkers. Suicide risk was assessed by clinician ratings (clinic sample) and questionnaires (both samples). Across samples and alternative suicide indices, INH- and THT+ each contributed uniquely to prediction of suicide risk-beyond internalizing and externalizing problems in the case of the clinic sample where diagnostic data were available. Further, in both samples, INH- and THT+ interactively predicted suicide risk, with individuals scoring concurrently high on both dispositions exhibiting markedly augmented risk. Findings demonstrate that dispositional constructs of INH- and THT+ are predictive of suicide risk, and hold potential as referents for biological research on suicidal behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

State-of-the-Art of (Bio)Chemical Sensor Developments in Analytical Spanish Groups

PubMed Central

Plata, María Reyes; Contento, Ana María; Ríos, Angel

2010-01-01

(Bio)chemical sensors are one of the most exciting fields in analytical chemistry today. The development of these analytical devices simplifies and miniaturizes the whole analytical process. Although the initial expectation of the massive incorporation of sensors in routine analytical work has been truncated to some extent, in many other cases analytical methods based on sensor technology have solved important analytical problems. Many research groups are working in this field world-wide, reporting interesting results so far. Modestly, Spanish researchers have contributed to these recent developments. In this review, we summarize the more representative achievements carried out for these groups. They cover a wide variety of sensors, including optical, electrochemical, piezoelectric or electro-mechanical devices, used for laboratory or field analyses. The capabilities to be used in different applied areas are also critically discussed. PMID:22319260

Environmental risk assessment of the emerging EDCs contaminants from rural soil and aqueous sources: Analytical and modelling approaches.

PubMed

Song, Xiaoming; Wen, Yujuan; Wang, Yuanyuan; Adeel, Muhammad; Yang, Yuesuo

2018-05-01

The emerging endocrine disrupting chemicals posed high risk and much uncertainty to eco-environment and human health. An analytical method, developed for the simultaneous determination of five steroid estrogens in groundwater and soil based upon solid phase extraction and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, was applied to investigate the distribution of estrone and 17β-estradiol around Shenyang City with particular focus on penetrating from surface to groundwater in this study. Mean concentrations of the estrone and 17β-estradiol were 55.1 ng L -1 and 56.1 ng L -1 in groundwater, 32.5 ng g -1 and 23.1 ng g -1 in soil, respectively. The distribution of estrone and 17β-estradiol were similar in groundwater, the concentration in the west of the site center was relatively low, and the surroundings were relatively high. The concentration of estrone was changed less, but 17β-estradiol was significantly increased in silt and silty sand layers in vadose zone profiles. Both estrone and 17β-estradiol concentrations changed abruptly at the interface of layers. Incorporating the temporal and spatial evolution of physical-chemical-biological environmental parameters at the sites, sorption and biodegradation were suggested the controlling roles in the fate and transport of SEs in the soil-groundwater system. The Ecological risk quotients values of both soil and groundwater indicated a very high ecological risk associated with SEs, but the non-carcinogenic harm quotients did not exceed the acceptable level of non-carcinogenic human health risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in macrophage transcriptome associate with systemic sclerosis and mediate GSDMA contribution to disease risk

PubMed Central

Koturan, Surya; Ko, Jeong-Hun; Fonseca, Carmen; Harmston, Nathan; Game, Laurence; Martin, Javier; Ong, Voon; Abraham, David J; Denton, Christopher P; Behmoaras, Jacques; Petretto, Enrico

2018-01-01

Objectives Several common and rare risk variants have been reported for systemic sclerosis (SSc), but the effector cell(s) mediating the function of these genetic variants remains to be elucidated. While innate immune cells have been proposed as the critical targets to interfere with the disease process underlying SSc, no studies have comprehensively established their effector role. Here we investigated the contribution of monocyte-derived macrophages (MDMs) in mediating genetic susceptibility to SSc. Methods We carried out RNA sequencing and genome-wide genotyping in MDMs from 57 patients with SSc and 15 controls. Our differential expression and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analysis in SSc was further integrated with epigenetic, expression and eQTL data from skin, monocytes, neutrophils and lymphocytes. Results We identified 602 genes upregulated and downregulated in SSc macrophages that were significantly enriched for genes previously implicated in SSc susceptibility (P=5×10−4), and 270 cis-regulated genes in MDMs. Among these, GSDMA was reported to carry an SSc risk variant (rs3894194) regulating expression of neighbouring genes in blood. We show that GSDMA is upregulated in SSc MDMs (P=8.4×10−4) but not in the skin, and is a significant eQTL in SSc macrophages and lipopolysaccharide/interferon gamma (IFNγ)-stimulated monocytes. Furthermore, we identify an SSc macrophage transcriptome signature characterised by upregulation of glycolysis, hypoxia and mTOR signalling and a downregulation of IFNγ response pathways. Conclusions Our data further establish the link between macrophages and SSc, and suggest that the contribution of the rs3894194 risk variant to SSc susceptibility can be mediated by GSDMA expression in macrophages. PMID:29348297

Evolutionary dynamics of public goods games with diverse contributions in finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jing; Wu, Bin; Chen, Xiaojie; Wang, Long

2010-05-01

The public goods game is a powerful metaphor for exploring the maintenance of social cooperative behavior in a group of interactional selfish players. Here we study the emergence of cooperation in the public goods games with diverse contributions in finite populations. The theory of stochastic process is innovatively adopted to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of the public goods games involving a diversity of contributions. In the limit of rare mutations, the general stationary distribution of this stochastic process can be analytically approximated by means of diffusion theory. Moreover, we demonstrate that increasing the diversity of contributions greatly reduces the probability of finding the population in a homogeneous state full of defectors. This increase also raises the expectation of the total contribution in the entire population and thus promotes social cooperation. Furthermore, by investigating the evolutionary dynamics of optional public goods games with diverse contributions, we find that nonparticipation can assist players who contribute more in resisting invasion and taking over individuals who contribute less. In addition, numerical simulations are performed to confirm our analytical results. Our results may provide insight into the effect of diverse contributions on cooperative behaviors in the real world.

Biomass burning contributed most to the human cancer risk exposed to the soil-bound PAHs from Chengdu Economic Region, western China.

PubMed

Zheng, Huang; Xing, Xinli; Hu, Tianpeng; Zhang, Yuan; Zhang, Jiaquan; Zhu, Gehao; Li, Ying; Qi, Shihua

2018-05-03

The purpose of this study was to assess the human cancer risk due to the exposure to the soil-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from Chengdu Economic Region (CER), western China with the main concern on cancer risk source apportionment. The total concentrations of sixteen PAHs ranged from 12.5 to 75431 ng g -1 , with a mean value of 3106 ng g -1 , which suggested that the most areas of CER were contaminated. Source apportionment of PAHs was conducted by the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model and the biomass burning contributed most (63.6%) to the total PAHs, followed by petroleum combustion (16.0%), coke source (11.3%), and petrogenic source (9.2%). Results from incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) calculation showed that soil ingestion exerted the highest cancer risk (accounted for 98.1 - 99.3% of the total cancer risk) on human health among three different exposure pathways, followed by dermal contact (0.66 - 1.83%) and inhalation (0.03 - 0.04%). Among different age groups, adult suffered the highest cancer risk via any exposure pathways. Based on PMF and ILCR methods, the cancer risk source apportionment was conducted and the biomass burning showed moderate cancer risk. The petrogenic, coke, and petroleum sources showed low cancer risks to human. To analyze the sensitivity of the parameters used in ILCR calculation, Monte Carlo simulation was employed. The results indicated that the contribution of each source and exposure duration (ED) were the influential parameters on human health associated with soil-bound PAHs. Therefore, much attentions should be paid to biomass burning to avoid cumulative cancer risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mentoring Programs to Affect Delinquency and Associated Outcomes of Youth At-Risk: A Comprehensive Meta-Analytic Reviewi

PubMed Central

Tolan, Patrick H.; Henry, David B.; Schoeny, Michael S.; Lovegrove, Peter; Nichols, Emily

2013-01-01

Objectives To conduct a meta-analytic review of selective and indicated mentoring interventions for effects for youth at risk on delinquency and key associated outcomes (aggression, drug use, academic functioning). We also undertook the first systematic evaluation of intervention implementation features and organization and tested for effects of theorized key processes of mentor program effects. Methods Campbell Collaboration review inclusion criteria and procedures were used to search and evaluate the literature. Criteria included a sample defined as at-risk for delinquency due to individual behavior such as aggression or conduct problems or environmental characteristics such as residence in high-crime community. Studies were required to be random assignment or strong quasi-experimental design. Of 163 identified studies published 1970 - 2011, 46 met criteria for inclusion. Results Mean effects sizes were significant and positive for each outcome category (ranging form d =.11 for Academic Achievement to d = .29 for Aggression). Heterogeneity in effect sizes was noted for all four outcomes. Stronger effects resulted when mentor motivation was professional development but not by other implementation features. Significant improvements in effects were found when advocacy and emotional support mentoring processes were emphasized. Conclusions This popular approach has significant impact on delinquency and associated outcomes for youth at-risk for delinquency. While evidencing some features may relate to effects, the body of literature is remarkably lacking in details about specific program features and procedures. This persistent state of limited reporting seriously impedes understanding about how mentoring is beneficial and ability to maximize its utility. PMID:25386111

Web Analytics

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s Web Analytics Program collects, analyzes, and provides reports on traffic, quality assurance, and customer satisfaction metrics for EPA’s website. The program uses a variety of analytics tools, including Google Analytics and CrazyEgg.

Approaches to acceptable risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whipple, C

Several alternative approaches to address the question {open_quotes}How safe is safe enough?{close_quotes} are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, inmore » a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made.« less

Moving from Within The Maternal: The Choreography of Analytic Eroticism.

PubMed

Elise, Dianne

2017-02-01

With Kristeva's concept of maternal eroticism (2014) as starting point, the "multiverse" of mother/child erotic sensibilities-the dance of the semiotic chora-is explored and a parallel engagement proposed within the analytic dyad. The dance of psychoanalysis is not the creative product of the patient's mind alone. Clinical work invites, requires, a choreographic engagement by the clinician in interplay with the patient. The clinician's analytic activity is thus akin to choreography: the structuring of a dance, or of a session, expresses an inner impulse brought into narrative form. The embodied art of dance parallels the clinician's creative vitality in contributing to the shaping of the movement of a session. Through formulation of an analytic eroticism, the terrain of what traditionally has been viewed as erotic transference and countertransference can be expanded to clinical benefit.

Contributions of polygenic risk for obesity to PTSD-related metabolic syndrome and cortical thickness.

PubMed

Wolf, Erika J; Miller, Danielle R; Logue, Mark W; Sumner, Jennifer; Stoop, Tawni B; Leritz, Elizabeth C; Hayes, Jasmeet P; Stone, Annjanette; Schichman, Steven A; McGlinchey, Regina E; Milberg, William P; Miller, Mark W

2017-10-01

Research suggests that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and that PTSD-associated MetS is related to decreased cortical thickness. However, the role of genetic factors in these associations is unclear. This study evaluated contributions of polygenic obesity risk and PTSD to MetS and of MetS and polygenic obesity risk to cortical thickness. 196 white, non-Hispanic veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan underwent clinical diagnostic interviews, physiological assessments, and genome-wide genotyping; 168 also completed magnetic resonance imaging scans. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for obesity were calculated from results of a prior genome-wide association study (Speliotes et al., 2010) and PTSD and MetS severity factor scores were obtained. Obesity PRS (β=0.15, p=0.009) and PTSD (β=0.17, p=0.005) predicted MetS and interacted such that the association between PTSD and MetS was stronger in individuals with greater polygenic obesity risk (β=0.13, p=0.02). Whole-brain vertex-wise analyses suggested that obesity PRS interacted with MetS to predict decreased cortical thickness in left rostral middle frontal gyrus (β=-0.40, p<0.001). Results suggest that PTSD, genetic variability, and MetS are related in a transactional fashion wherein obesity genetic risk increases stress-related metabolic pathology, and compounds the ill health effects of MetS on the brain. Genetic proclivity towards MetS should be considered in PTSD patients when prescribing psychotropic medications with adverse metabolic profiles. Results are consistent with a growing literature suggestive of PTSD-related accelerated aging. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Analytic materials

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The theory of inhomogeneous analytic materials is developed. These are materials where the coefficients entering the equations involve analytic functions. Three types of analytic materials are identified. The first two types involve an integer p. If p takes its maximum value, then we have a complete analytic material. Otherwise, it is incomplete analytic material of rank p. For two-dimensional materials, further progress can be made in the identification of analytic materials by using the well-known fact that a 90° rotation applied to a divergence-free field in a simply connected domain yields a curl-free field, and this can then be expressed as the gradient of a potential. Other exact results for the fields in inhomogeneous media are reviewed. Also reviewed is the subject of metamaterials, as these materials provide a way of realizing desirable coefficients in the equations. PMID:27956882

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

PubMed

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On portfolio risk diversification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.

2017-06-01

The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.

Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parwatiningtyas, Diyan, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Marlina, Dwi, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com

Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method ofmore » calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area.« less

Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parwatiningtyas, Diyan; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia; Marlina, Dwi; Wiratomo, Yogi

2014-03-01

Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area.

Environmental risk factors for autism: do they help cause de novo genetic mutations that contribute to the disorder?

PubMed

Kinney, Dennis K; Barch, Daniel H; Chayka, Bogdan; Napoleon, Siena; Munir, Kerim M

2010-01-01

Recent research has discovered that a number of genetic risk factors for autism are de novo mutations. Advanced parental age at the time of conception is associated with increased risk for both autism and de novo mutations. We investigated the hypothesis that other environmental factors associated with increased risk for autism might also be mutagenic and contribute to autism by causing de novo mutations. A survey of the research literature identified 9 environmental factors for which increased pre-conceptual exposure appears to be associated with increased risk for autism. Five of these factors--mercury, cadmium, nickel, trichloroethylene, and vinyl chloride--are established mutagens. Another four--including residence in regions that are urbanized, located at higher latitudes, or experience high levels of precipitation--are associated with decreased sun exposure and increased risk for vitamin D deficiency. Vitamin D plays important roles in repairing DNA damage and protecting against oxidative stress--a key cause of DNA damage. Factors associated with vitamin D deficiency will thus contribute to higher mutation rates and impaired repair of DNA. We note how de novo mutations may also help explain why the concordance rate for autism is so markedly higher in monozygotic than dizygotic twins. De novo mutations may also explain in part why the prevalence of autism is so remarkably high, given the evidence for a strong role of genetic factors and the low fertility of individuals with autism--and resultant selection pressure against autism susceptibility genes. These several lines of evidence provide support for the hypothesis, and warrant new research approaches--which we suggest--to address limitations in existing studies. The hypothesis has implications for understanding possible etiologic roles of de novo mutations in autism, and it suggests possible approaches to primary prevention of the disorder, such as addressing widespread vitamin D deficiency and exposure to

Evaluating child welfare policies with decision-analytic simulation models.

PubMed

Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Bailey, Stephanie L; Hurlburt, Michael S; Zhang, Jinjin; Snowden, Lonnie R; Wulczyn, Fred; Landsverk, John; Horwitz, Sarah M

2012-11-01

The objective was to demonstrate decision-analytic modeling in support of Child Welfare policymakers considering implementing evidence-based interventions. Outcomes included permanency (e.g., adoptions) and stability (e.g., foster placement changes). Analyses of a randomized trial of KEEP-a foster parenting intervention-and NSCAW-1 estimated placement change rates and KEEP's effects. A microsimulation model generalized these findings to other Child Welfare systems. The model projected that KEEP could increase permanency and stability, identifying strategies targeting higher-risk children and geographical regions that achieve benefits efficiently. Decision-analytic models enable planners to gauge the value of potential implementations.

Authorship and contribution disclosures

PubMed Central

Sauermann, Henry; Haeussler, Carolin

2017-01-01

Most scientific research is performed by teams, and for a long time, observers have inferred individual team members’ contributions by interpreting author order on published articles. In response to increasing concerns about this approach, journals are adopting policies that require the disclosure of individual authors’ contributions. However, it is not clear whether and how these disclosures improve upon the conventional approach. Moreover, there is little evidence on how contribution statements are written and how they are used by readers. We begin to address these questions in two studies. Guided by a conceptual model, Study 1 examines the relationship between author order and contribution statements on more than 12,000 articles to understand what information is provided by each. This analysis quantifies the risk of error when inferring contributions from author order and shows how this risk increases with team size and for certain types of authors. At the same time, the analysis suggests that some components of the value of contributions are reflected in author order but not in currently used contribution statements. Complementing the bibliometric analysis, Study 2 analyzes survey data from more than 6000 corresponding authors to examine how contribution statements are written and used. This analysis highlights important differences between fields and between senior versus junior scientists, as well as strongly diverging views about the benefits and limitations of contribution statements. On the basis of both studies, we highlight important avenues for future research and consider implications for a broad range of stakeholders. PMID:29152564

How health leaders can benefit from predictive analytics.

PubMed

Giga, Aliyah

2017-11-01

Predictive analytics can support a better integrated health system providing continuous, coordinated, and comprehensive person-centred care to those who could benefit most. In addition to dollars saved, using a predictive model in healthcare can generate opportunities for meaningful improvements in efficiency, productivity, costs, and better population health with targeted interventions toward patients at risk.

Early life risk factors that contribute to irritable bowel syndrome in adults: a systematic review.

PubMed

Chitkara, Denesh K; van Tilburg, Miranda A L; Blois-Martin, Nannette; Whitehead, William E

2008-03-01

Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common disorder that occurs in adults. The natural history of symptoms and risk factors that contribute to IBS may begin in childhood. The aim of this systematic review was to determine what early life factors contribute to the development of IBS in adolescents and adults. A computer-assisted search of the PubMed database from 1966 to 2007 was performed. The selection criteria were: (a) studies conducted in adolescents or adults with IBS that (b) investigate premorbid factors occurring specifically during the childhood period and are (c) associated with the outcomes of symptoms, quality of life, health-care utilization, and interferences with work or disability. Twenty-five articles met inclusion criteria. The studies were categorized into articles examining the persistence of childhood gastrointestinal symptoms into adulthood, affluent childhood socioeconomic status and adult IBS, infantile and childhood trauma associated with the development of adult IBS, and social learning of illness behavior as predictors of adult IBS. Pediatricians should be aware of potentially modifiable childhood risk factors and should consider interventions such as early symptom management of recurrent functional abdominal pain with cognitive therapies and parent education about social learning of illness behavior. Early treatment may have a long-term impact. Research examining the effect of affluent childhood socioeconomic status and early childhood trauma in the evolution of functional gastrointestinal disorders may help identify causative factors of IBS.

The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

PubMed Central

Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

2016-01-01

Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

Inclusive heavy flavor hadroproduction in NLO QCD: The exact analytic result

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czakon, M.; Mitov, A.

2010-01-01

We present the first exact analytic result for all partonic channels contributing to the total cross section for the production of a pair of heavy flavors in hadronic collisions in NLO QCD. Our calculation is a step in the derivation of the top quark pair production cross section at NNLO in QCD, which is a cornerstone of the precision LHC program. Our results uncover the analytical structures behind observables with heavy flavors at higher orders. They also reveal surprising and non-trivial implications for kinematics close to partonic threshold.

Multimedia Analysis plus Visual Analytics = Multimedia Analytics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chinchor, Nancy; Thomas, James J.; Wong, Pak C.

2010-10-01

Multimedia analysis has focused on images, video, and to some extent audio and has made progress in single channels excluding text. Visual analytics has focused on the user interaction with data during the analytic process plus the fundamental mathematics and has continued to treat text as did its precursor, information visualization. The general problem we address in this tutorial is the combining of multimedia analysis and visual analytics to deal with multimedia information gathered from different sources, with different goals or objectives, and containing all media types and combinations in common usage.

Analytical study of robustness of a negative feedback oscillator by multiparameter sensitivity

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background One of the distinctive features of biological oscillators such as circadian clocks and cell cycles is robustness which is the ability to resume reliable operation in the face of different types of perturbations. In the previous study, we proposed multiparameter sensitivity (MPS) as an intelligible measure for robustness to fluctuations in kinetic parameters. Analytical solutions directly connect the mechanisms and kinetic parameters to dynamic properties such as period, amplitude and their associated MPSs. Although negative feedback loops are known as common structures to biological oscillators, the analytical solutions have not been presented for a general model of negative feedback oscillators. Results We present the analytical expressions for the period, amplitude and their associated MPSs for a general model of negative feedback oscillators. The analytical solutions are validated by comparing them with numerical solutions. The analytical solutions explicitly show how the dynamic properties depend on the kinetic parameters. The ratio of a threshold to the amplitude has a strong impact on the period MPS. As the ratio approaches to one, the MPS increases, indicating that the period becomes more sensitive to changes in kinetic parameters. We present the first mathematical proof that the distributed time-delay mechanism contributes to making the oscillation period robust to parameter fluctuations. The MPS decreases with an increase in the feedback loop length (i.e., the number of molecular species constituting the feedback loop). Conclusions Since a general model of negative feedback oscillators was employed, the results shown in this paper are expected to be true for many of biological oscillators. This study strongly supports that the hypothesis that phosphorylations of clock proteins contribute to the robustness of circadian rhythms. The analytical solutions give synthetic biologists some clues to design gene oscillators with robust and desired period

A systematic and feasible method for computing nuclear contributions to electrical properties of polyatomic molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luis, Josep M.; Duran, Miquel; Andrés, José L.

1997-08-01

An analytic method to evaluate nuclear contributions to electrical properties of polyatomic molecules is presented. Such contributions control changes induced by an electric field on equilibrium geometry (nuclear relaxation contribution) and vibrational motion (vibrational contribution) of a molecular system. Expressions to compute the nuclear contributions have been derived from a power series expansion of the potential energy. These contributions to the electrical properties are given in terms of energy derivatives with respect to normal coordinates, electric field intensity or both. Only one calculation of such derivatives at the field-free equilibrium geometry is required. To show the useful efficiency of the analytical evaluation of electrical properties (the so-called AEEP method), results for calculations on water and pyridine at the SCF/TZ2P and the MP2/TZ2P levels of theory are reported. The results obtained are compared with previous theoretical calculations and with experimental values.

How Dispositional Learning Analytics Helps Understanding the Worked-Example Principle

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tempelaar, Dirk

2017-01-01

This empirical study aims to demonstrate how Dispositional Learning Analytics can contribute in the investigation of the effectiveness of didactical scenarios in authentic settings, where previous research has mostly been laboratory based. Using a showcase based on learning processes of 1080 students in a blended introductory quantitative course,…

Older adult mistreatment risk screening: contribution to the validation of a screening tool in a domestic setting.

PubMed

Lindenbach, Jeannette M; Larocque, Sylvie; Lavoie, Anne-Marise; Garceau, Marie-Luce

2012-06-01

ABSTRACTThe hidden nature of older adult mistreatment renders its detection in the domestic setting particularly challenging. A validated screening instrument that can provide a systematic assessment of risk factors can facilitate this detection. One such instrument, the "expanded Indicators of Abuse" tool, has been previously validated in the Hebrew language in a hospital setting. The present study has contributed to the validation of the "e-IOA" in an English-speaking community setting in Ontario, Canada. It consisted of two phases: (a) a content validity review and adaptation of the instrument by experts throughout Ontario, and (b) an inter-rater reliability assessment by home visiting nurses. The adaptation, the "Mistreatment of Older Adult Risk Factors" tool, offers a comprehensive tool for screening in the home setting. This instrument is significant to professional practice as practitioners working with older adults will be better equipped to assess for risk of mistreatment.

Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garrick, B J

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor tomore » risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to {open_quotes}fear anything nuclear,{close_quotes} radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure.« less

Inability to activate Rac1-dependent forgetting contributes to behavioral inflexibility in mutants of multiple autism-risk genes

PubMed Central

Dong, Tao; He, Jing; Wang, Shiqing; Wang, Lianzhang; Cheng, Yuqi; Zhong, Yi

2016-01-01

The etiology of autism is so complicated because it involves the effects of variants of several hundred risk genes along with the contribution of environmental factors. Therefore, it has been challenging to identify the causal paths that lead to the core autistic symptoms such as social deficit, repetitive behaviors, and behavioral inflexibility. As an alternative approach, extensive efforts have been devoted to identifying the convergence of the targets and functions of the autism-risk genes to facilitate mapping out causal paths. In this study, we used a reversal-learning task to measure behavioral flexibility in Drosophila and determined the effects of loss-of-function mutations in multiple autism-risk gene homologs in flies. Mutations of five autism-risk genes with diversified molecular functions all led to a similar phenotype of behavioral inflexibility indicated by impaired reversal-learning. These reversal-learning defects resulted from the inability to forget or rather, specifically, to activate Rac1 (Ras-related C3 botulinum toxin substrate 1)-dependent forgetting. Thus, behavior-evoked activation of Rac1-dependent forgetting has a converging function for autism-risk genes. PMID:27335463

The town of Cabar, Croatia, a high risk area for multiple sclerosis--analytic epidemiology of dietary factors.

PubMed

Perković, Olivio; Jurjević, Ante; Rudez, Josip; Antoncić, Igor; Bralić, Marina; Kapović, Miljenko

2010-04-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is demyelization disease of central nervous system of unidentified causes. Analytic epidemiological research of 19 patients, clinically approved cases of MS and 25 controls, autochthonic inhabitants of town of Cabar, Croatia, the high-risk zone for the disease, was made. The research plan included case-control investigation--the "door to door" questionnaire--about nutrition habits. An odds ratio (OR) was calculated for all the factors which were more frequently found in the patients than in the controls, and vice versa. The variables that were connected with significant risk for MS in the town of Cabar included: alcohol consumption (p = 0.05), animal fats/dried meat products consumption (p = 0.007), nitrate salting (p = 0.03), strong spices (p = 0.007), mixed bread (p = 0.002), oat and oat products consumption (p = 0.0075). No connection was found with regular consumption of vegetables and fruit (p = 0.009), blue fresh fish (p = 0.028), other fresh fish (p = 0.03), freshwater fish (p = 0.002), canned fish (p = 0.004), dormouse meat (p = 0.007), air-dried meat products (p = 0.004) and using the water from water supply (p = 0.011). In the town of Cabar nutritional customs, primarily food rich in animal fats, alcohol-abuse, and oat consumption could have an influence on MS pathogenesis in genetically inclined individuals.

Prevalence of Factor V Genetic Variants Associated With Indian APCR Contributing to Thrombotic Risk.

PubMed

Sharma, Amit; Bhakuni, Teena; Biswas, Arijit; Ranjan, Ravi; Kumar, Ravi; Kishore, Kamal; Mahapatra, Manoranjan; Jairajpuri, Mohamad Aman; Saxena, Renu

2017-09-01

Phenotypic resistance to activated protein C (APC) is a complex mechanism associated with increased thrombosis risk. Activated protein C resistance (APCR) is mainly influenced by FV Leiden mutation, and various other single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in FV gene are known to be associated with APCR. The aim of present study was to investigate the incidence and assess possible mechanisms of APCR in Indian patients with deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Three hundred and ten Doppler-proven patients with DVT were screened for APCR, and 50 APCR positive patients and 50 controls were typed for FV Leiden , Hong Kong, Cambridge, HR2 haplotype, Glu666Asp, Ala485Lys, and Liverpool using either polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-restriction fragment length polymorphism or allele specific PCR. FV Leiden was commonest cause of APCR (50%) in Indian patients with DVT being statistically significant ( P = .001) compared to controls. FV Liverpool, FV Glu666Asp and FV Ala485Lys were studied for the first time in Indian population. FV Liverpool, FV Glu666Asp, Hong Kong, and Cambridge were found to be absent. High frequency of Ala485Lys in patients shows that it might be a risk factor contributing to APCR in Indian patients with DVT. HR2 haplotype was not associated with APCR; however, presence of homozygous HR2 haplotype in patients only indicates the role it might play in Indian APCR population. In conclusion, contribution of FV Leiden causing APCR in Indian population is not as strong as previously reported in Western countries. The presence of other SNPs observed in the present study requires such studies on larger sample size to understand the molecular basis of defect.

Source-oriented risk assessment of inhalation exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and contributions of non-priority isomers in urban Nanjing, a megacity located in Yangtze River Delta, China.

PubMed

Zhuo, Shaojie; Shen, Guofeng; Zhu, Ying; Du, Wei; Pan, Xuelian; Li, Tongchao; Han, Yang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Junfeng; Cheng, Hefa; Xing, Baoshan; Tao, Shu

2017-05-01

Sixteen U.S. EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and eleven non-priority isomers including some dibenzopyrenes were analyzed to evaluate health risk attributable to inhalation exposure to ambient PAHs and contributions of the non-priority PAHs in a megacity Nanjing, east China. The annual average mass concentration of the total 16 EPA priority PAHs in air was 51.1 ± 29.8 ng/m 3 , comprising up to 93% of the mass concentration of all 27 PAHs, however, the estimated Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) due to inhalation exposure would be underestimated by 63% on average if only accounting the 16 EPA priority PAHs. The risk would be underestimated by 13% if only particulate PAHs were considered, though gaseous PAHs made up to about 70% of the total mass concentration. During the last fifteen years, ambient Benzo[a]pyrene decreased significantly in the city which was consistent with the declining trend of PAHs emissions. Source contributions to the estimated ILCR were much different from the contributions for the total mass concentration, calling for the introduce of important source-oriented risk assessments. Emissions from gasoline vehicles contributed to 12% of the total mass concentration of 27 PAHs analyzed, but regarding relative contributions to the overall health risk, gasoline vehicle emissions contributed 45% of the calculated ILCR. Dibenzopyrenes were a group of non-priority isomers largely contributing to the calculated ILCR, and vehicle emissions were probably important sources of these high molecular weight isomers. Ambient dibenzo[a,l]pyrene positively correlated with the priority PAH Benzo[g,h,i]perylene. The study indicates that inclusion of non-priority PAHs could be valuable for both PAH source apportionment and health risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of foodborne outbreaks in which use of analytical epidemiological studies contributed to identification of suspected vehicles, European Union, 2007 to 2011.

PubMed

Schlinkmann, K M; Razum, O; Werber, D

2017-04-01

Foodborne disease outbreaks (FBDOs) occur frequently in Europe. Employing analytical epidemiological study designs increases the likelihood of identifying the suspected vehicle(s), but these studies are rarely applied in FBDO investigations. We used multivariable binary logistic regression analysis to identify characteristics of investigated FBDOs reported to the European Food Safety Authority (2007-2011) that were associated with analytical epidemiological evidence (compared to evidence from microbiological investigations/descriptive epidemiology only). The analysis was restricted to FBDO investigations, where the evidence for the suspected vehicle was considered 'strong', i.e. convincing. The presence of analytical epidemiological evidence was reported in 2012 (50%) of these 4038 outbreaks. In multivariable analysis, increasing outbreak size, number of hospitalizations, causative (i.e. aetiological) agent (whether identified and, if so, which one), and the setting in which these outbreaks occurred (e.g. geographically dispersed outbreaks) were independently associated with presence of analytical evidence. The number of investigations with reported analytical epidemiological evidence was unexpectedly high, likely indicating the need for quality assurance within the European Union foodborne outbreak reporting system, and warranting cautious interpretation of our findings. This first analysis of evidence implicating a food vehicle in FBDOs may help to inform public health authorities on when to use analytical epidemiological study designs.

Correction for isotopic interferences between analyte and internal standard in quantitative mass spectrometry by a nonlinear calibration function.

PubMed

Rule, Geoffrey S; Clark, Zlatuse D; Yue, Bingfang; Rockwood, Alan L

2013-04-16

Stable isotope-labeled internal standards are of great utility in providing accurate quantitation in mass spectrometry (MS). An implicit assumption has been that there is no "cross talk" between signals of the internal standard and the target analyte. In some cases, however, naturally occurring isotopes of the analyte do contribute to the signal of the internal standard. This phenomenon becomes more pronounced for isotopically rich compounds, such as those containing sulfur, chlorine, or bromine, higher molecular weight compounds, and those at high analyte/internal standard concentration ratio. This can create nonlinear calibration behavior that may bias quantitative results. Here, we propose the use of a nonlinear but more accurate fitting of data for these situations that incorporates one or two constants determined experimentally for each analyte/internal standard combination and an adjustable calibration parameter. This fitting provides more accurate quantitation in MS-based assays where contributions from analyte to stable labeled internal standard signal exist. It can also correct for the reverse situation where an analyte is present in the internal standard as an impurity. The practical utility of this approach is described, and by using experimental data, the approach is compared to alternative fits.

Using Positive Youth Development to Predict Contribution and Risk Behaviors in Early Adolescence: Findings from the First Two Waves of the 4-H Study of Positive Youth Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jelicic, Helena; Bobek, Deborah L.; Phelps, Erin; Lerner, Richard M.; Lerner, Jacqueline V.

2007-01-01

Theories of positive youth development (PYD) regard such development as bases of both community contributions and lessened likelihood of risk/problem behaviors. Using data from the 4-H Study of PYD, we tested these expectations by examining if PYD in Grade 5 predicted both youth contributions and risk behaviors and depression in Grade 6. Results…

Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

PubMed

Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

2012-01-01

Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate

Comprehensive review of genetic factors contributing to head and neck squamous cell carcinoma development in low-risk, nontraditional patients.

PubMed

Gingerich, Morgan A; Smith, Joshua D; Michmerhuizen, Nicole L; Ludwig, Megan; Devenport, Samantha; Matovina, Chloe; Brenner, Chad; Chinn, Steven B

2018-05-01

The past 2 decades have seen an increased incidence of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in a nontraditional, low-risk patient population (ie, ≤45 years of age, no substance use history), owing to a combination of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and individual genetic variation. Articles positing genetic variants as contributing factors in HNSCC incidence in low-risk, nontraditional patients were identified using a PubMed search, reviewed in detail, and concisely summarized herein. Recent data suggest that common polymorphisms in DNA repair enzymes, cell-cycle control proteins, apoptotic pathway members, and Fanconi anemia-associated genes likely modulate susceptibility to HNSCC development in low-risk, nontraditional patients. At present, there is a lack of robust, comprehensive data on genetic drivers of oncogenesis in low-risk patients and a clear need for further research on genetic alterations underlying the rising incidence of HNSCC in low-risk, nontraditional patients. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Possibilities of Utilizing the Method of Analytical Hierarchy Process Within the Strategy of Corporate Social Business

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drieniková, Katarína; Hrdinová, Gabriela; Naňo, Tomáš; Sakál, Peter

2010-01-01

The paper deals with the analysis of the theory of corporate social responsibility, risk management and the exact method of analytic hierarchic process that is used in the decision-making processes. The Chapters 2 and 3 focus on presentation of the experience with the application of the method in formulating the stakeholders' strategic goals within the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and simultaneously its utilization in minimizing the environmental risks. The major benefit of this paper is the application of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).

NASA contributions to radial turbine aerodynamic analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glassman, A. J.

1980-01-01

A brief description of the radial turbine and its analysis needs is followed by discussions of five analytical areas; design geometry and performance, off design performance, blade row flow, scroll flow, and duct flow. The functions of the programs, areas of applicability, and limitations and uncertainties are emphasized. Both past contributions and current activities are discussed.

Training the next generation analyst using red cell analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Meghan N.; Graham, Jacob L.

2016-05-01

We have seen significant change in the study and practice of human reasoning in recent years from both a theoretical and methodological perspective. Ubiquitous communication coupled with advances in computing and a plethora of analytic support tools have created a push for instantaneous reporting and analysis. This notion is particularly prevalent in law enforcement, emergency services and the intelligence community (IC), where commanders (and their civilian leadership) expect not only a birds' eye view of operations as they occur, but a play-by-play analysis of operational effectiveness. This paper explores the use of Red Cell Analytics (RCA) as pedagogy to train the next-gen analyst. A group of Penn State students in the College of Information Sciences and Technology at the University Park campus of The Pennsylvania State University have been practicing Red Team Analysis since 2008. RCA draws heavily from the military application of the same concept, except student RCA problems are typically on non-military in nature. RCA students utilize a suite of analytic tools and methods to explore and develop red-cell tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs), and apply their tradecraft across a broad threat spectrum, from student-life issues to threats to national security. The strength of RCA is not always realized by the solution but by the exploration of the analytic pathway. This paper describes the concept and use of red cell analytics to teach and promote the use of structured analytic techniques, analytic writing and critical thinking in the area of security and risk and intelligence training.

Functional polymorphisms in cell death pathway genes FAS and FASL contribute to risk of lung cancer.

PubMed

Zhang, X; Miao, X; Sun, T; Tan, W; Qu, S; Xiong, P; Zhou, Y; Lin, D

2005-06-01

The FAS and FASL system plays a key role in regulating apoptotic cell death and corruption of this signalling pathway has been shown to participate in immune escape and tumorigenesis. There is reduced expression of FAS but elevated expression of FASL in many types of human cancers including lung cancer. We recently reported an association between functional polymorphisms in FAS (-1377G-->A) and FASL (-844T-->C) and risk of oesophageal cancer. To examine the contribution of these polymorphisms to risk of developing lung cancer. Genotypes of 1000 lung cancer patients and 1270 controls were analysed by PCR based restriction fragment length polymorphism. Associations with risk of lung cancer were estimated by logistic regression. Compared with non-carriers, there was a 1.6 fold excess risk of developing lung cancer for carriers of the FAS -1377AA genotype (odds ratio (OR) 1.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 to 2.10; p = 0.001), and 1.8 fold excess risk (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.52; p = 0.001) for carriers of FASL -844CC. Gene-gene interaction of FAS and FASL polymorphisms increased risk of lung cancer in a multiplicative manner (OR for the carriers of both FAS -1377AA and FASL -844CC genotypes 4.18, 95% CI 2.83 to 6.18). Gene-environment interaction of FAS or FASL polymorphism and smoking associated with increased risk of lung cancer was also found. These results are consistent with our initial findings in oesophageal cancer and further support the hypothesis that the FAS and FASL triggered apoptosis pathway plays an important role in human carcinogenesis.

Let's Talk... Analytics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oblinger, Diana G.

2012-01-01

Talk about analytics seems to be everywhere. Everyone is talking about analytics. Yet even with all the talk, many in higher education have questions about--and objections to--using analytics in colleges and universities. In this article, the author explores the use of analytics in, and all around, higher education. (Contains 1 note.)

Both antenatal and postnatal inflammation contribute information about the risk of brain damage in extremely preterm newborns

PubMed Central

Yanni, Diana; Korzeniewski, Steven J.; Allred, Elizabeth N.; Fichorova, Raina N.; O'Shea, T. Michael; Kuban, Karl; Dammann, Olaf; Leviton, Alan

2017-01-01

Background Preterm newborns exposed to intrauterine inflammation are at increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders. We hypothesized that adverse outcomes are more strongly associated with a combination of antenatal and postnatal inflammation than with either of them alone. Methods We defined antenatal inflammation as histologic inflammation in the placenta. We measured the concentrations of seven inflammation-related proteins in blood obtained on postnatal days 1, 7, and 14 from 763 infants born before 28 weeks of gestation. We defined postnatal inflammation as a protein concentration in the highest quartile on at least 2 days. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the contribution of antenatal and postnatal inflammation to the risk of neurodevelopmental disorders. Results The risk of white matter damage was increased when placental inflammation was followed by sustained elevation of CRP or ICAM-1. We found the same for spastic cerebral palsy when placental inflammation was followed by elevation of TNF-α or IL-8. The presence of both placental inflammation and elevated levels of IL-6, TNF-α, or ICAM-1 was associated with an increased risk for microcephaly. Conclusion Compared to a single hit, two inflammatory hits are associated with stronger risk for abnormal cranial ultrasound, spastic cerebral palsy, and microcephaly at 2 years. PMID:28549057

Predicting Rib Fracture Risk With Whole-Body Finite Element Models: Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Probabilistic Analytical Framework

PubMed Central

Forman, Jason L.; Kent, Richard W.; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

2012-01-01

This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5–7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992–2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction. PMID:23169122

Big data analytics to improve cardiovascular care: promise and challenges.

PubMed

Rumsfeld, John S; Joynt, Karen E; Maddox, Thomas M

2016-06-01

The potential for big data analytics to improve cardiovascular quality of care and patient outcomes is tremendous. However, the application of big data in health care is at a nascent stage, and the evidence to date demonstrating that big data analytics will improve care and outcomes is scant. This Review provides an overview of the data sources and methods that comprise big data analytics, and describes eight areas of application of big data analytics to improve cardiovascular care, including predictive modelling for risk and resource use, population management, drug and medical device safety surveillance, disease and treatment heterogeneity, precision medicine and clinical decision support, quality of care and performance measurement, and public health and research applications. We also delineate the important challenges for big data applications in cardiovascular care, including the need for evidence of effectiveness and safety, the methodological issues such as data quality and validation, and the critical importance of clinical integration and proof of clinical utility. If big data analytics are shown to improve quality of care and patient outcomes, and can be successfully implemented in cardiovascular practice, big data will fulfil its potential as an important component of a learning health-care system.

Analytics for Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacNeill, Sheila; Campbell, Lorna M.; Hawksey, Martin

2014-01-01

This article presents an overview of the development and use of analytics in the context of education. Using Buckingham Shum's three levels of analytics, the authors present a critical analysis of current developments in the domain of learning analytics, and contrast the potential value of analytics research and development with real world…

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to UK autumn flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, Pardeep; Aina, Tolu; Stone, Dáithí; Stott, Peter; Nozawa, Toru; Hilberts, Arno; Lohmann, Dag; Allen, Myles

2010-05-01

Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing[1]. Yet climate models typically used for studying the attribution problem do not resolve weather at scales causing damage[2]. Here we present the first multi-step study that attributes increasing risk of a damaging regional weather-related event to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The event was the UK flooding of October and November 2000, occurring during the wettest autumn in England & Wales since records began in 1766[3] and inundating several river catchments[4]. Nearly 10,000 properties were flooded and transport services and power supplies severely disrupted, with insured losses estimated at £1.3bn[5,6]. Though the floods were deemed a ‘wake up call' to the impacts of climate change[7], anthropogenic drivers cannot be blamed for this individual event: but they could be blamed for changing its risk[8,9]. Indeed, typically quoted thermodynamic arguments do suggest increased probability of precipitation extremes under anthropogenic warming[10]. But these arguments are too simple[11,12,13] to fully account for the complex weather[4,14] associated with the flooding. Instead we use a Probabilistic Event Attribution framework, to rigorously estimate the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to England & Wales Autumn 2000 flood risk. This involves comparing an unprecedented number of daily river runoff realisations for the region, under Autumn 2000 scenarios both with and without the emissions. These realisations are produced using publicly volunteered distributed computing power to generate several thousand seasonal forecast resolution climate model simulations[15,16] that are then fed into a precipitation-runoff model[17,18]. Autumn 2000 flooding is characterised by realisations exceeding the highest daily river runoff for that period, derived from the observational-based ERA-40 re-anaylsis[19]. We find that our

Ergonomics contribution to chemical risks prevention: An ergotoxicological investigation of the effectiveness of coverall against plant pest risk in viticulture.

PubMed

Garrigou, Alain; Baldi, Isabelle; Le Frious, Patricia; Anselm, Rémy; Vallier, Martine

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to present the contribution of a trans-disciplinary approach focused on ergonomics and chemical risk control. We shall more precisely discuss how such an approach carried out in the field of agricultural work has made it possible to highlight serious shortcomings in the effectiveness of the coveralls that are supposed to protect vineyard workers from pesticides. The study results, as well as the whistle-blow that followed have questioned the control and prevention measures used until then. The aforementioned trans-disciplinary approach gathers knowledge and methods from epidemiology, industrial hygiene, occupational health and safety and ergonomics. Ergonomics were central in the development of the approach as it connected task and activity analysis with contamination measurements. Lastly, the first results that were obtained have been confirmed and reused by the AFSSET (Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire Environnement et Travail, the French governmental agency in charge of environmental health and occupational health and safety issues) regarding the agricultural sector but also for all other situations in which workers use coveralls as protection against chemical risks. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Obesity Genes FTO and MC4R for Contribution to the Risk of Large Artery Atherosclerotic Stroke in a Chinese Population

PubMed Central

Song, Zhi; Qiu, Lingling; Hu, Zhongyang; Liu, Jia; Liu, Ding; Hou, Deren

2016-01-01

Background Obesity is a well-established risk factor for large artery atherosclerotic (LAA) stroke. The aim of the study was to explore whether obesity genes, such as MC4R and FTO, contribute to LAA stroke risk in the Chinese Han population. Methods 322 LAA stroke patients and 473 controls were recruited. Gene polymorphism of MC4R (rs17782313) and FTO (rs8050136 and rs9939609) were genotyped. Results No differences were observed in genotype frequencies of variants of FTO (rs8050136 and rs9939609) or MC4R (rs17782313) between LAA stroke patients and control subjects. However, rs17782313 of the MC4R gene was associated with LAA stroke susceptibility in smokers (rs17782313: p = 0.020, OR (95s% CI) = 1.55 (1.07–2.23)) in the stratified analysis. Furthermore, multifactor dimensionality reduction analysis revealed that the combination of MC4R variant (rs17782313), hypertension and smoking habit was significantly associated with increased risk of LAA stroke (p < 0.0001, OR (95s% CI) = 6.57 (4.79–9.01)). Conclusion Our study indicated that the synergistic effects of MC4R variants, hypertension, and smoking habit contribute significantly to the risk of LAA stroke in the Chinese Han population. The finding revealed that obesity gene MC4R contribute to the risk of LAA stroke via a synergistic mechanism, which will provide new insight into the genetic architecture of LAA stroke. PMID:27701175

Evaluation of the Obesity Genes FTO and MC4R for Contribution to the Risk of Large Artery Atherosclerotic Stroke in a Chinese Population.

PubMed

Song, Zhi; Qiu, Lingling; Hu, Zhongyang; Liu, Jia; Liu, Ding; Hou, Deren

2016-01-01

Obesity is a well-established risk factor for large artery atherosclerotic (LAA) stroke. The aim of the study was to explore whether obesity genes, such as MC4R and FTO, contribute to LAA stroke risk in the Chinese Han population. 322 LAA stroke patients and 473 controls were recruited. Gene polymorphism of MC4R (rs17782313) and FTO (rs8050136 and rs9939609) were genotyped. No differences were observed in genotype frequencies of variants of FTO (rs8050136 and rs9939609) or MC4R (rs17782313) between LAA stroke patients and control subjects. However, rs17782313 of the MC4R gene was associated with LAA stroke susceptibility in smokers (rs17782313: p = 0.020, OR (95% CI) = 1.55 (1.07-2.23)) in the stratified analysis. Furthermore, multifactor dimensionality reduction analysis revealed that the combination of MC4R variant (rs17782313), hypertension and smoking habit was significantly associated with increased risk of LAA stroke (p < 0.0001, OR (95% CI) = 6.57 (4.79-9.01)). Our study indicated that the synergistic effects of MC4R variants, hypertension, and smoking habit contribute significantly to the risk of LAA stroke in the Chinese Han population. The finding revealed that obesity gene MC4R contribute to the risk of LAA stroke via a synergistic mechanism, which will provide new insight into the genetic architecture of LAA stroke. © 2016 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Did it fall or was it pushed? The contribution of trends in established risk factors to the decline in premature coronary heart disease mortality in New Zealand.

PubMed

Tobias, Martin; Taylor, Richard; Yeh, Li-Chia; Huang, Ken; Mann, Stewart; Sharpe, Norman

2008-04-01

To estimate the contribution of trends in three risk factors--systolic blood pressure (SBP), total blood cholesterol (TBC) and cigarette smoking--to the decline in premature coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in New Zealand from 1980-2004. Risk factor prevalence data by 10-year age group (35-64 years) and sex was sourced from six national or Auckland regional health surveys and three population censuses (the latter only for smoking). The data were smoothed using two-point moving averages, then further smoothed by fitting quadratic regression equations (SBP and TBC) or splines (smoking). Risk factor/CHD mortality hazard ratios estimated by expert working groups for the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study 2001 were used to translate average annual changes in risk factor prevalences to the corresponding percentage changes in premature CHD mortality. The expected trends in CHD mortality were then compared with the observed trend to estimate the contribution of each risk factor to the decline. Approximately 80% (73% for males, 87% for females) of the decline in premature CHD mortality from 1980 to 2004 is estimated to have resulted from the joint trends in population SBP and TBC distributions and smoking prevalence. Overall, approximately 42%, 36% and 22% of the joint risk factor effect was contributed by trends in SBP, TBC and smoking respectively. Our estimate for the joint risk factor contribution to the CHD mortality decline of 80% exceeds those of two earlier New Zealand studies, but agrees closely with a similar Australian study. This provides an indicator of the scope that still remains for further reduction in CHD mortality through primary and secondary prevention.

Analytical Algorithms to Quantify the Uncertainty in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Saxena, Abhinav; Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decisionmaking. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliability method (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

The "Journal of Learning Analytics": Supporting and Promoting Learning Analytics Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siemens, George

2014-01-01

The paper gives a brief overview of the main activities for the development of the emerging field of learning analytics led by the Society for Learning Analytics Research (SoLAR). The place of the "Journal of Learning Analytics" is identified. Analytics is the most significant new initiative of SoLAR.

Analytical and numerical treatment of drift-tearing modes in plasma slab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirnov, V. V.; Hegna, C. C.; Sovinec, C. R.; Howell, E. C.

2016-10-01

Two-fluid corrections to linear tearing modes includes 1) diamagnetic drifts that reduce the growth rate and 2) electron and ion decoupling on short scales that can lead to fast reconnection. We have recently developed an analytical model that includes effects 1) and 2) and important contribution from finite electron parallel thermal conduction. Both the tendencies 1) and 2) are confirmed by an approximate analytic dispersion relation that is derived using a perturbative approach of small ion-sound gyroradius ρs. This approach is only valid at the beginning of the transition from the collisional to semi-collisional regimes. Further analytical and numerical work is performed to cover the full interval of ρs connecting these two limiting cases. Growth rates are computed from analytic theory with a shooting method. They match the resistive MHD regime with the dispersion relations known at asymptotically large ion-sound gyroradius. A comparison between this analytical treatment and linear numerical simulations using the NIMROD code with cold ions and hot electrons in plasma slab is reported. The material is based on work supported by the U.S. DOE and NSF.

Predictive Analytics to Support Real-Time Management in Pathology Facilities.

PubMed

Lessard, Lysanne; Michalowski, Wojtek; Chen Li, Wei; Amyot, Daniel; Halwani, Fawaz; Banerjee, Diponkar

2016-01-01

Predictive analytics can provide valuable support to the effective management of pathology facilities. The introduction of new tests and technologies in anatomical pathology will increase the volume of specimens to be processed, as well as the complexity of pathology processes. In order for predictive analytics to address managerial challenges associated with the volume and complexity increases, it is important to pinpoint the areas where pathology managers would most benefit from predictive capabilities. We illustrate common issues in managing pathology facilities with an analysis of the surgical specimen process at the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine (DPLM) at The Ottawa Hospital, which processes all surgical specimens for the Eastern Ontario Regional Laboratory Association. We then show how predictive analytics could be used to support management. Our proposed approach can be generalized beyond the DPLM, contributing to a more effective management of pathology facilities and in turn to quicker clinical diagnoses.

Recalibration of blood analytes over 25 years in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study: The impact of recalibration on chronic kidney disease prevalence and incidence

PubMed Central

Parrinello, Christina M.; Grams, Morgan E.; Couper, David; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Hoogeveen, Ron C.; Eckfeldt, John H.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Coresh, Josef

2016-01-01

Background Equivalence of laboratory tests over time is important for longitudinal studies. Even a small systematic difference (bias) can result in substantial misclassification. Methods We selected 200 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants attending all 5 study visits over 25 years. Eight analytes were re-measured in 2011–13 from stored blood samples from multiple visits: creatinine, uric acid, glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Original values were recalibrated to re-measured values using Deming regression. Differences >10% were considered to reflect substantial bias, and correction equations were applied to affected analytes in the total study population. We examined trends in chronic kidney disease (CKD) pre- and post-recalibration. Results Repeat measures were highly correlated with original values (Pearson’s r>0.85 after removing outliers [median 4.5% of paired measurements]), but 2 of 8 analytes (creatinine and uric acid) had differences >10%. Original values of creatinine and uric acid were recalibrated to current values using correction equations. CKD prevalence differed substantially after recalibration of creatinine (visits 1, 2, 4 and 5 pre-recalibration: 21.7%, 36.1%, 3.5%, 29.4%; post-recalibration: 1.3%, 2.2%, 6.4%, 29.4%). For HDL-cholesterol, the current direct enzymatic method differed substantially from magnesium dextran precipitation used during visits 1–4. Conclusions Analytes re-measured in samples stored for ~25 years were highly correlated with original values, but two of the 8 analytes showed substantial bias at multiple visits. Laboratory recalibration improved reproducibility of test results across visits and resulted in substantial differences in CKD prevalence. We demonstrate the importance of consistent recalibration of laboratory assays in a cohort study. PMID:25952043

Contribution of biopsychosocial risk factors to nonspecific neck pain in office workers: A path analysis model.

PubMed

Paksaichol, Arpalak; Lawsirirat, Chaipat; Janwantanakul, Prawit

2015-01-01

The etiology of nonspecific neck pain is widely accepted to be multifactorial. Each risk factor has not only direct effects on neck pain but may also exert effects indirectly through other risk factors. This study aimed to test this hypothesized model in office workers. A one-year prospective cohort study of 559 healthy office workers was conducted. At baseline, a self-administered questionnaire and standardized physical examination were employed to gather biopsychosocial data. Follow-up data were collected every month for the incidence of neck pain. A regression model was built to analyze factors predicting the onset of neck pain. Path analysis was performed to examine direct and indirect associations between identified risk factors and neck pain. The onset of neck pain was predicted by female gender, having a history of neck pain, monitor position not being level with the eyes, and frequently perceived muscular tension, of which perceived muscular tension was the strongest effector on the onset of neck pain. Gender, history of neck pain, and monitor height had indirect effects on neck pain that were mediated through perceived muscular tension. History of neck pain was the most influential effector on perceived muscular tension. The results of this study support the hypothesis that each risk factors may contribute to the development of neck pain both directly and indirectly. The combination of risk factors necessary to cause neck pain is likely occupation specific. Perceived muscular tension is hypothesized to be an early sign of musculoskeletal symptoms.

"We Need to Deploy Them Very Thoughtfully and Carefully": Perceptions of Analytical Treatment Interruptions in HIV Cure Research in the United States-A Qualitative Inquiry.

PubMed

Dubé, Karine; Evans, David; Dee, Lynda; Sylla, Laurie; Taylor, Jeff; Skinner, Asheley; Weiner, Bryan J; Greene, Sandra B; Rennie, Stuart; Tucker, Joseph D

2018-01-01

Strategies to control HIV in the absence of antiretroviral therapy are needed to cure HIV. However, such strategies will require analytical treatment interruptions (ATIs) to determine their efficacy. We investigated how U.S. stakeholders involved in HIV cure research perceive ATIs. We conducted 36 in-depth interviews with three groups of stakeholders: 12 people living with HIV, 11 clinician-researchers, and 13 policy-makers/bioethicists. Qualitative data revealed several themes. First, there was little consensus on when ATIs would be ethically warranted. Second, the most frequent perceived hypothetical motivators for participating in research on ATIs were advancing science and contributing to society. Third, risks related to viral rebound were the most prevalent concerns related to ATIs. Stakeholders suggested ways to minimize the risks of ATIs in HIV cure research. Increased cooperation between scientists and local communities may be useful for minimizing risk. Further ethics research is necessary.

Laser backscattering analytical model of Doppler power spectra about rotating convex quadric bodies of revolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, YanJun; Wu, ZhenSen; Wang, MingJun; Cao, YunHua

2010-01-01

We propose an analytical model of Doppler power spectra in backscatter from arbitrary rough convex quadric bodies of revolution (whose lateral surface is a quadric) rotating around axes. In the global Cartesian coordinate system, the analytical model deduced is suitable for general convex quadric body of revolution. Based on this analytical model, the Doppler power spectra of cones, cylinders, paraboloids of revolution, and sphere-cones combination are proposed. We analyze numerically the influence of geometric parameters, aspect angle, wavelength and reflectance of rough surface of the objects on the broadened spectra because of the Doppler effect. This analytical solution may contribute to laser Doppler velocimetry, and remote sensing of ballistic missile that spin.

Contributions of parental alcoholism, prenatal substance exposure, and genetic transmission to child ADHD risk: a female twin study.

PubMed

Knopik, Valerie S; Sparrow, Elizabeth P; Madden, Pamela A F; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Hudziak, James J; Reich, Wendy; Slutske, Wendy S; Grant, Julia D; McLaughlin, Tara L; Todorov, Alexandre; Todd, Richard D; Heath, Andrew C

2005-05-01

Genetic influences have been shown to play a major role in determining the risk of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). In addition, prenatal exposure to nicotine and/or alcohol has also been suggested to increase risk of the disorder. Little attention, however, has been directed to investigating the roles of genetic transmission and prenatal exposure simultaneously. Diagnostic telephone interview data from parents of Missouri adolescent female twin pairs born during 1975-1985 were analyzed. Logistic regression models were fitted to interview data from a total of 1936 twin pairs (1091 MZ and 845 DZ pairs) to determine the relative contributions of parental smoking and drinking behavior (both during and outside of pregnancy) as risk factors for DSM-IV ADHD. Structural equation models were fitted to determine the extent of residual genetic and environmental influences on ADHD risk while controlling for effects of prenatal and parental predictors on risk. ADHD was more likely to be diagnosed in girls whose mothers or fathers were alcohol dependent, whose mothers reported heavy alcohol use during pregnancy, and in those with low birth weight. Controlling for other risk factors, risk was not significantly increased in those whose mothers smoked during pregnancy. After allowing for effects of prenatal and childhood predictors, 86% of the residual variance in ADHD risk was attributable to genetic effects and 14% to non-shared environmental influences. Prenatal and parental risk factors may not be important mediators of influences on risk with much of the association between these variables and ADHD appearing to be indirect.

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: Contributions from risk factor changes and treatments.

PubMed

Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen; Rastam, Samer; Saidi, Olfa; Sözmen, Kaan; Shoaibi, Azza; Husseini, Abdullatif; Fouad, Fouad; Ben Mansour, Nadia; Aissi, Wafa; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Unal, Belgin; Bandosz, Piotr; Bennett, Kathleen; Dherani, Mukesh; Al Ali, Radwan; Maziak, Wasim; Arık, Hale; Gerçeklioğlu, Gül; Altun, Deniz Utku; Şimşek, Hatice; Doganay, Sinem; Demiral, Yücel; Aslan, Özgür; Unwin, Nigel; Phillimore, Peter; Achour, Nourredine; Aissi, Waffa; Allani, Riadh; Arfa, Chokra; Abu-Kteish, Heidar; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen; Al Ali, Radwan; Altun, Deniz; Ahmad, Balsam; Arık, Hale; Aslan, Özgür; Beltaifa, Latifa; Ben Mansour, Nadia; Bennett, Kathleen; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Ben Salah, Nabil; Collins, Marissa; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; Dherani, Mukesh; Demiral, Yücel; Doganay, Sinem; Elias, Madonna; Ergör, Gül; Fadhil, Ibtihal; Fouad, Fouad; Gerçeklioğlu, Gül; Ghandour, Rula; Göğen, Sibel; Husseini, Abdullatif; Jaber, Samer; Kalaca, Sibel; Khatib, Rana; Khatib, Rasha; Koudsie, Saer; Kilic, Bülent; Lassoued, Olfa; Mason, Helen; Maziak, Wasim; Mayaleh, Maher Abou; Mikki, Nahed; Moukeh, Ghmaez; Flaherty, Martin O; Phillimore, Peter; Rastam, Samer; Roglic, Gojka; Saidi, Olfa; Saatli, Gül; Satman, Ilhan; Shoaibi, Azza; Şimşek, Hatice; Soulaiman, Nesrien; Sözmen, Kaan; Tlili, Faten; Unal, Belgin; Unwin, Nigel; Yardim, Nazan; Zaman, Shahaduz

2016-04-01

Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995-97; 2006-09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%-50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Decade of Genetic and Metabolomic Contributions to Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction

PubMed Central

Merino, Jordi; Leong, Aaron; Meigs, James B.

2018-01-01

Purpose of Review The purpose of this review was to summarize and reflect on advances over the past decade in human genetic and metabolomic discovery with particular focus on their contributions to type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction. Recent Findings In the past 10 years, a combination of advances in genotyping efficiency, metabolomic profiling, bio-informatics approaches, and international collaboration have moved T2D genetics and metabolomics from a state of frustration to an abundance of new knowledge. Summary Efforts to control and prevent T2D have failed to stop this global epidemic. New approaches are needed, and although neither genetic nor metabolomic profiling yet have a clear clinical role, the rapid pace of accumulating knowledge offers the possibility for “multi-omic” prediction to improve health. PMID:29103096

Validation of an online risk calculator for the prediction of anastomotic leak after colon cancer surgery and preliminary exploration of artificial intelligence-based analytics.

PubMed

Sammour, T; Cohen, L; Karunatillake, A I; Lewis, M; Lawrence, M J; Hunter, A; Moore, J W; Thomas, M L

2017-11-01

Recently published data support the use of a web-based risk calculator ( www.anastomoticleak.com ) for the prediction of anastomotic leak after colectomy. The aim of this study was to externally validate this calculator on a larger dataset. Consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency colectomy for colon cancer at a single institution over a 9-year period were identified using the Binational Colorectal Cancer Audit database. Patients with a rectosigmoid cancer, an R2 resection, or a diverting ostomy were excluded. The primary outcome was anastomotic leak within 90 days as defined by previously published criteria. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was derived and compared with that of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program ® (ACS NSQIP) calculator and the colon leakage score (CLS) calculator for left colectomy. Commercially available artificial intelligence-based analytics software was used to further interrogate the prediction algorithm. A total of 626 patients were identified. Four hundred and fifty-six patients met the inclusion criteria, and 402 had complete data available for all the calculator variables (126 had a left colectomy). Laparoscopic surgery was performed in 39.6% and emergency surgery in 14.7%. The anastomotic leak rate was 7.2%, with 31.0% requiring reoperation. The anastomoticleak.com calculator was significantly predictive of leak and performed better than the ACS NSQIP calculator (AUROC 0.73 vs 0.58) and the CLS calculator (AUROC 0.96 vs 0.80) for left colectomy. Artificial intelligence-predictive analysis supported these findings and identified an improved prediction model. The anastomotic leak risk calculator is significantly predictive of anastomotic leak after colon cancer resection. Wider investigation of artificial intelligence-based analytics for risk prediction is warranted.

From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, M.; Damm, B.

2014-12-01

The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

Safety analytics for integrating crash frequency and real-time risk modeling for expressways.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

2017-07-01

To find crash contributing factors, there have been numerous crash frequency and real-time safety studies, but such studies have been conducted independently. Until this point, no researcher has simultaneously analyzed crash frequency and real-time crash risk to test whether integrating them could better explain crash occurrence. Therefore, this study aims at integrating crash frequency and real-time safety analyses using expressway data. A Bayesian integrated model and a non-integrated model were built: the integrated model linked the crash frequency and the real-time models by adding the logarithm of the estimated expected crash frequency in the real-time model; the non-integrated model independently estimated the crash frequency and the real-time crash risk. The results showed that the integrated model outperformed the non-integrated model, as it provided much better model results for both the crash frequency and the real-time models. This result indicated that the added component, the logarithm of the expected crash frequency, successfully linked and provided useful information to the two models. This study uncovered few variables that are not typically included in the crash frequency analysis. For example, the average daily standard deviation of speed, which was aggregated based on speed at 1-min intervals, had a positive effect on crash frequency. In conclusion, this study suggested a methodology to improve the crash frequency and real-time models by integrating them, and it might inspire future researchers to understand crash mechanisms better. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of analytical errors in a clinical chemistry laboratory: a 3 year experience.

PubMed

Sakyi, As; Laing, Ef; Ephraim, Rk; Asibey, Of; Sadique, Ok

2015-01-01

Proficient laboratory service is the cornerstone of modern healthcare systems and has an impact on over 70% of medical decisions on admission, discharge, and medications. In recent years, there is an increasing awareness of the importance of errors in laboratory practice and their possible negative impact on patient outcomes. We retrospectively analyzed data spanning a period of 3 years on analytical errors observed in our laboratory. The data covered errors over the whole testing cycle including pre-, intra-, and post-analytical phases and discussed strategies pertinent to our settings to minimize their occurrence. We described the occurrence of pre-analytical, analytical and post-analytical errors observed at the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital clinical biochemistry laboratory during a 3-year period from January, 2010 to December, 2012. Data were analyzed with Graph Pad Prism 5(GraphPad Software Inc. CA USA). A total of 589,510 tests was performed on 188,503 outpatients and hospitalized patients. The overall error rate for the 3 years was 4.7% (27,520/58,950). Pre-analytical, analytical and post-analytical errors contributed 3.7% (2210/58,950), 0.1% (108/58,950), and 0.9% (512/58,950), respectively. The number of tests reduced significantly over the 3-year period, but this did not correspond with a reduction in the overall error rate (P = 0.90) along with the years. Analytical errors are embedded within our total process setup especially pre-analytical and post-analytical phases. Strategic measures including quality assessment programs for staff involved in pre-analytical processes should be intensified.

Big data and high-performance analytics in structural health monitoring for bridge management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alampalli, Sharada; Alampalli, Sandeep; Ettouney, Mohammed

2016-04-01

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) can be a vital tool for effective bridge management. Combining large data sets from multiple sources to create a data-driven decision-making framework is crucial for the success of SHM. This paper presents a big data analytics framework that combines multiple data sets correlated with functional relatedness to convert data into actionable information that empowers risk-based decision-making. The integrated data environment incorporates near real-time streams of semi-structured data from remote sensors, historical visual inspection data, and observations from structural analysis models to monitor, assess, and manage risks associated with the aging bridge inventories. Accelerated processing of dataset is made possible by four technologies: cloud computing, relational database processing, support from NOSQL database, and in-memory analytics. The framework is being validated on a railroad corridor that can be subjected to multiple hazards. The framework enables to compute reliability indices for critical bridge components and individual bridge spans. In addition, framework includes a risk-based decision-making process that enumerate costs and consequences of poor bridge performance at span- and network-levels when rail networks are exposed to natural hazard events such as floods and earthquakes. Big data and high-performance analytics enable insights to assist bridge owners to address problems faster.

Opportunities for GEOGLAM to contribute to Food Systems Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeZaks, D.; Jahn, M.

2013-12-01

Since the GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEO-GLAM) community of practice was formed, there has been much interest in how this community can be leveraged to address a series of challenges that has received recognition from a variety of stakeholder groups across acacemia, government, the private sector and multilateral international organizations. This talk will review the collaborative network that has formed around the on-going and planned activities of GEOGLAM, and how future research and development activities within and around GEOGLAM can contribute to the innovation ecosystem around agricultural monitoring and how monitoring activities can contribute to informing decision processes from stakeholders ranging from farmers to policy-makers and other key stakeholders. These collaborative activities revolve around sharing data, information, knowledge, analytics, improved reflections of risks, and opportunities related to humanity's sustainable provisioning at the land/water/energy nexus. The goal of extending GEOGLAMs collaborative activities is to mobilize aligned assets and commitments to set up more ordered approaches to describing and managing the dynamics of food systems, viewed more holistically as sets of nested geospatially and temporally explicit processes. A special focus will be given to how information assets originating from within GEOGLAM can be used to support a coherent visualization of the world's food systems along with improving representation of the resource bases upon which our survival depends

Big data and visual analytics in anaesthesia and health care.

PubMed

Simpao, A F; Ahumada, L M; Rehman, M A

2015-09-01

Advances in computer technology, patient monitoring systems, and electronic health record systems have enabled rapid accumulation of patient data in electronic form (i.e. big data). Organizations such as the Anesthesia Quality Institute and Multicenter Perioperative Outcomes Group have spearheaded large-scale efforts to collect anaesthesia big data for outcomes research and quality improvement. Analytics--the systematic use of data combined with quantitative and qualitative analysis to make decisions--can be applied to big data for quality and performance improvements, such as predictive risk assessment, clinical decision support, and resource management. Visual analytics is the science of analytical reasoning facilitated by interactive visual interfaces, and it can facilitate performance of cognitive activities involving big data. Ongoing integration of big data and analytics within anaesthesia and health care will increase demand for anaesthesia professionals who are well versed in both the medical and the information sciences. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The contribution of DNA apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease genotype and smoking habit to Taiwan lung cancer risk.

PubMed

Chen, Wei-Chun; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Hsia, Te-Chun; Chang, Wen-Shin; Lin, Liang-Yi; Liang, Shinn-Jye; Tu, Chih-Yen; Cheng, Wei-Erh; Chen, Hung-Jen; Wang, Shu-Ming; Bau, da-Tian

2013-06-01

To evaluate the association and interaction of genotypic polymorphism the gene for DNA-apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease (APEX1) with personal smoking habit and lung cancer risk in Taiwan, the polymorphic variants of APEX1, Asp(148)Glu (rs1130409), were analyzed in association with lung cancer risk, and their joint effect with personal smoking habits on lung cancer susceptibility was discussed. In this hospital-based case-control study, 358 patients with lung cancer and 716 cancer-free controls, frequency-matched by age and sex, were recruited and genotyped by polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). The results showed that the percentages of TT, TG and GG APEX1 Asp(148)Glu genotypes were not significantly different at 43.0%, 41.1% and 15.9% in the lung cancer patient group and 39.9%, 46.1% and 14.0% in non-cancer control group, respectively. We further analyzed the genetic-lifestyle effects on lung cancer risk and found the contribution of APEX1 Asp(148)Glu genotypes to lung cancer susceptibility was neither enhanced in the cigarette smokers nor in the non-smokers (p=0.3550 and 0.8019, respectively). Our results provide evidence that the non-synonymous polymorphism of APEX1 Asp(148)Glu may not be directly associated with lung cancer risk, nor enhance the effects of smoking habit on lung cancer development.

Research Data Alliance: Understanding Big Data Analytics Applications in Earth Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riedel, Morris; Ramachandran, Rahul; Baumann, Peter

2014-05-01

The Research Data Alliance (RDA) enables data to be shared across barriers through focused working groups and interest groups, formed of experts from around the world - from academia, industry and government. Its Big Data Analytics (BDA) interest groups seeks to develop community based recommendations on feasible data analytics approaches to address scientific community needs of utilizing large quantities of data. BDA seeks to analyze different scientific domain applications (e.g. earth science use cases) and their potential use of various big data analytics techniques. These techniques reach from hardware deployment models up to various different algorithms (e.g. machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines for classification). A systematic classification of feasible combinations of analysis algorithms, analytical tools, data and resource characteristics and scientific queries will be covered in these recommendations. This contribution will outline initial parts of such a classification and recommendations in the specific context of the field of Earth Sciences. Given lessons learned and experiences are based on a survey of use cases and also providing insights in a few use cases in detail.

Research Data Alliance: Understanding Big Data Analytics Applications in Earth Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riedel, Morris; Ramachandran, Rahul; Baumann, Peter

2014-01-01

The Research Data Alliance (RDA) enables data to be shared across barriers through focused working groups and interest groups, formed of experts from around the world - from academia, industry and government. Its Big Data Analytics (BDA) interest groups seeks to develop community based recommendations on feasible data analytics approaches to address scientific community needs of utilizing large quantities of data. BDA seeks to analyze different scientific domain applications (e.g. earth science use cases) and their potential use of various big data analytics techniques. These techniques reach from hardware deployment models up to various different algorithms (e.g. machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines for classification). A systematic classification of feasible combinations of analysis algorithms, analytical tools, data and resource characteristics and scientific queries will be covered in these recommendations. This contribution will outline initial parts of such a classification and recommendations in the specific context of the field of Earth Sciences. Given lessons learned and experiences are based on a survey of use cases and also providing insights in a few use cases in detail.

Identification of "At Risk" Students Using Learning Analytics: The Ethical Dilemmas of Intervention Strategies in a Higher Education Institution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawson, Celeste; Beer, Colin; Rossi, Dolene; Moore, Teresa; Fleming, Julie

2016-01-01

Learning analytics is an emerging field in which sophisticated analytic tools are used to inform and improve learning and teaching. Researchers within a regional university in Australia identified an association between interaction and student success in online courses and subsequently developed a learning analytics system aimed at informing…

Next Generation Analytic Tools for Large Scale Genetic Epidemiology Studies of Complex Diseases

PubMed Central

Mechanic, Leah E.; Chen, Huann-Sheng; Amos, Christopher I.; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Cox, Nancy J.; Divi, Rao L.; Fan, Ruzong; Harris, Emily L.; Jacobs, Kevin; Kraft, Peter; Leal, Suzanne M.; McAllister, Kimberly; Moore, Jason H.; Paltoo, Dina N.; Province, Michael A.; Ramos, Erin M.; Ritchie, Marylyn D.; Roeder, Kathryn; Schaid, Daniel J.; Stephens, Matthew; Thomas, Duncan C.; Weinberg, Clarice R.; Witte, John S.; Zhang, Shunpu; Zöllner, Sebastian; Feuer, Eric J.; Gillanders, Elizabeth M.

2012-01-01

Over the past several years, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of genetic markers associated with common diseases. However, most of these markers confer relatively small increments of risk and explain only a small proportion of familial clustering. To identify obstacles to future progress in genetic epidemiology research and provide recommendations to NIH for overcoming these barriers, the National Cancer Institute sponsored a workshop entitled “Next Generation Analytic Tools for Large-Scale Genetic Epidemiology Studies of Complex Diseases” on September 15–16, 2010. The goal of the workshop was to facilitate discussions on (1) statistical strategies and methods to efficiently identify genetic and environmental factors contributing to the risk of complex disease; and (2) how to develop, apply, and evaluate these strategies for the design, analysis, and interpretation of large-scale complex disease association studies in order to guide NIH in setting the future agenda in this area of research. The workshop was organized as a series of short presentations covering scientific (gene-gene and gene-environment interaction, complex phenotypes, and rare variants and next generation sequencing) and methodological (simulation modeling and computational resources and data management) topic areas. Specific needs to advance the field were identified during each session and are summarized. PMID:22147673

Award for Distinguished Scientific Contributions: Alice H. Eagly

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Psychologist, 2009

2009-01-01

Alice H. Eagly, winner of the Award for Distinguished Scientific Contributions, is cited for her work in the field of social psychology, the psychology of gender, and the use of meta-analytic techniques. She envisions a psychology that extends from individual cognitions to societal structures. In addition to the citation, a biography and selected…

Predictive Analytics to Support Real-Time Management in Pathology Facilities

PubMed Central

Lessard, Lysanne; Michalowski, Wojtek; Chen Li, Wei; Amyot, Daniel; Halwani, Fawaz; Banerjee, Diponkar

2016-01-01

Predictive analytics can provide valuable support to the effective management of pathology facilities. The introduction of new tests and technologies in anatomical pathology will increase the volume of specimens to be processed, as well as the complexity of pathology processes. In order for predictive analytics to address managerial challenges associated with the volume and complexity increases, it is important to pinpoint the areas where pathology managers would most benefit from predictive capabilities. We illustrate common issues in managing pathology facilities with an analysis of the surgical specimen process at the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine (DPLM) at The Ottawa Hospital, which processes all surgical specimens for the Eastern Ontario Regional Laboratory Association. We then show how predictive analytics could be used to support management. Our proposed approach can be generalized beyond the DPLM, contributing to a more effective management of pathology facilities and in turn to quicker clinical diagnoses. PMID:28269873

ANALYTICAL METHODS NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT RISK-BASED CRITERIA FOR CHEMICALS IN MUNICIPAL SLUDGE

EPA Science Inventory

The Ambient Water Quality Criteria that were promulgated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1980 included water concentration levels which, for many pollutants, were so low as to be unmeasurable by standard analytical methods. Criteria for controlling toxics in munici...

Trends in Process Analytical Technology: Present State in Bioprocessing.

PubMed

Jenzsch, Marco; Bell, Christian; Buziol, Stefan; Kepert, Felix; Wegele, Harald; Hakemeyer, Christian

2017-08-04

Process analytical technology (PAT), the regulatory initiative for incorporating quality in pharmaceutical manufacturing, is an area of intense research and interest. If PAT is effectively applied to bioprocesses, this can increase process understanding and control, and mitigate the risk from substandard drug products to both manufacturer and patient. To optimize the benefits of PAT, the entire PAT framework must be considered and each elements of PAT must be carefully selected, including sensor and analytical technology, data analysis techniques, control strategies and algorithms, and process optimization routines. This chapter discusses the current state of PAT in the biopharmaceutical industry, including several case studies demonstrating the degree of maturity of various PAT tools. Graphical Abstract Hierarchy of QbD components.

MASS SPECTROMETRY FOR RISK MANAGEMENT OF DRINKING WATER TREATMENT; II. DISINFECTION BY-PRODUCTS: HALOACETIC ACIDS

EPA Science Inventory

Risk management of drinking water relies on quality analytical data. Analytical methodology can often be adapted from environmental monitoring sources. However, risk management sometimes presents special analytical challenges because data may be needed from a source for which n...

Applying Behavior Analytic Procedures to Effectively Teach Literacy Skills in the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joseph, Laurice M.; Alber-Morgan, Sheila; Neef, Nancy

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to discuss the application of behavior analytic procedures for advancing and evaluating methods for teaching literacy skills in the classroom. Particularly, applied behavior analysis has contributed substantially to examining the relationship between teacher behavior and student literacy performance. Teacher…

Michael Fordham and the Journal of Analytical Psychology: the view from Hangman's Hill.

PubMed

Urban, Elizabeth

2015-09-01

This short paper was presented to a conference in honour of the 60(th) year of the JAP and was one of others that acknowledged the contribution of Michael Fordham. The subtitle refers to the paper's overview of Fordham's published oeuvre and the particular place of the Journal of Analytical Psychology, for which he was the founding editor. Fordham's contribution to a Jungian-based model of development is discussed, with reference to his papers in the British Journal of Medical Psychology. The paper notes miscellaneous pieces from Fordham's commentaries, obituaries, papers and reviews which capture not only the development of Fordham as a thinker but also his character. There is discussion of his reviews of Melanie Klein's Envy and Gratitude and manuscripts by Erich Neumann. A reminiscence of Fordham as supervisor is recounted. © 2015, The Society of Analytical Psychology.

Obstetrical complications associated with abnormal maternal serum markers analytes.

PubMed

Gagnon, Alain; Wilson, R Douglas

2008-10-01

To review the obstetrical outcomes associated with abnormally elevated or decreased level of one or more of the most frequently measured maternal serum marker analytes used in screening for aneuploidy. To provide guidance to facilitate the management of pregnancies that have abnormal levels of one of more markers and to assess the usefulness of these markers as a screening test. Perinatal outcomes associated with abnormal levels of maternal serum markers analytes are compared with the outcomes of pregnancies with normal levels of the same analytes or the general population. The Cochrane Library and Medline were searched for English-language articles published from 1966 to February 2007, relating to maternal serum markers and perinatal outcomes. Search terms included PAPP-A (pregnancy associated plasma protein A), AFP (alphafetoprotein), hCG (human chorionic gonadotropin), estriol, unconjugated estriol, inhibin, inhibin-A, maternal serum screen, triple marker screen, quadruple screen, integrated prenatal screen, first trimester screen, and combined prenatal screen. All study types were reviewed. Randomized controlled trials were considered evidence of the highest quality, followed by cohort studies. Key individual studies on which the recommendations are based are referenced. Supporting data for each recommendation are summarized with evaluative comments and references. The evidence was evaluated using the guidelines developed by the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care. The evidence collected was reviewed by the Genetics Committee of the Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada. The benefit expected from this guideline is to facilitate early detection of potential adverse pregnancy outcomes when risks are identified at the time of a maternal serum screen. It will help further stratification of risk and provide options for pregnancy management to minimize the impact of pregnancy complications. The potential harms resulting from such practice

Deterrence and Risk Preferences in Sequential Attacker-Defender Games with Continuous Efforts.

PubMed

Payyappalli, Vineet M; Zhuang, Jun; Jose, Victor Richmond R

2017-11-01

Most attacker-defender games consider players as risk neutral, whereas in reality attackers and defenders may be risk seeking or risk averse. This article studies the impact of players' risk preferences on their equilibrium behavior and its effect on the notion of deterrence. In particular, we study the effects of risk preferences in a single-period, sequential game where a defender has a continuous range of investment levels that could be strategically chosen to potentially deter an attack. This article presents analytic results related to the effect of attacker and defender risk preferences on the optimal defense effort level and their impact on the deterrence level. Numerical illustrations and some discussion of the effect of risk preferences on deterrence and the utility of using such a model are provided, as well as sensitivity analysis of continuous attack investment levels and uncertainty in the defender's beliefs about the attacker's risk preference. A key contribution of this article is the identification of specific scenarios in which the defender using a model that takes into account risk preferences would be better off than a defender using a traditional risk-neutral model. This study provides insights that could be used by policy analysts and decisionmakers involved in investment decisions in security and safety. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of Analytical Errors in a Clinical Chemistry Laboratory: A 3 Year Experience

PubMed Central

Sakyi, AS; Laing, EF; Ephraim, RK; Asibey, OF; Sadique, OK

2015-01-01

Background: Proficient laboratory service is the cornerstone of modern healthcare systems and has an impact on over 70% of medical decisions on admission, discharge, and medications. In recent years, there is an increasing awareness of the importance of errors in laboratory practice and their possible negative impact on patient outcomes. Aim: We retrospectively analyzed data spanning a period of 3 years on analytical errors observed in our laboratory. The data covered errors over the whole testing cycle including pre-, intra-, and post-analytical phases and discussed strategies pertinent to our settings to minimize their occurrence. Materials and Methods: We described the occurrence of pre-analytical, analytical and post-analytical errors observed at the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital clinical biochemistry laboratory during a 3-year period from January, 2010 to December, 2012. Data were analyzed with Graph Pad Prism 5(GraphPad Software Inc. CA USA). Results: A total of 589,510 tests was performed on 188,503 outpatients and hospitalized patients. The overall error rate for the 3 years was 4.7% (27,520/58,950). Pre-analytical, analytical and post-analytical errors contributed 3.7% (2210/58,950), 0.1% (108/58,950), and 0.9% (512/58,950), respectively. The number of tests reduced significantly over the 3-year period, but this did not correspond with a reduction in the overall error rate (P = 0.90) along with the years. Conclusion: Analytical errors are embedded within our total process setup especially pre-analytical and post-analytical phases. Strategic measures including quality assessment programs for staff involved in pre-analytical processes should be intensified. PMID:25745569

An integrated approach of analytical network process and fuzzy based spatial decision making systems applied to landslide risk mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abedi Gheshlaghi, Hassan; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

2017-09-01

Landslides in mountainous areas render major damages to residential areas, roads, and farmlands. Hence, one of the basic measures to reduce the possible damage is by identifying landslide-prone areas through landslide mapping by different models and methods. The purpose of conducting this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a combination of two models of the analytical network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in landslide risk mapping in the Azarshahr Chay basin in northwest Iran. After field investigations and a review of research literature, factors affecting the occurrence of landslides including slope, slope aspect, altitude, lithology, land use, vegetation density, rainfall, distance to fault, distance to roads, distance to rivers, along with a map of the distribution of occurred landslides were prepared in GIS environment. Then, fuzzy logic was used for weighting sub-criteria, and the ANP was applied to weight the criteria. Next, they were integrated based on GIS spatial analysis methods and the landslide risk map was produced. Evaluating the results of this study by using receiver operating characteristic curves shows that the hybrid model designed by areas under the curve 0.815 has good accuracy. Also, according to the prepared map, a total of 23.22% of the area, amounting to 105.38 km2, is in the high and very high-risk class. Results of this research are great of importance for regional planning tasks and the landslide prediction map can be used for spatial planning tasks and for the mitigation of future hazards in the study area.

Potential of big data analytics in the French in vitro diagnostics market.

PubMed

Dubois, Nicolas; Garnier, Nicolas; Meune, Christophe

2017-12-01

The new paradigm of the big data raises many expectations, particularly in the field of health. Curiously, even though medical biology laboratories generate a great amount of data, the opportunities offered by this new field are poorly documented. For better understanding the clinical context of chronical disease follow-up, for leveraging preventive and/or personalized medicine, the contribution of big data analytics seems very promising. It is within this framework that we have explored to use data of a Breton group of laboratories of medical biology to analyze the possible contributions of their exploitation in the improvement of the clinical practices and to anticipate the evolution of pathologies for the benefit of patients. We report here three practical applications derived from routine laboratory data from a period of 5 years (February 2010-August 2015): follow-up of patients treated with AVK according to the recommendations of the High authority of health (HAS), use of the new troponin markers HS and NT-proBNP in cardiology. While the risks and difficulties of using algorithms in the health domain should not be underestimated - quality, accessibility, and protection of personal data in particular - these first results show that use of tools and technologies of the big data repository could provide decisive support for the concept of "evidence based medicine".

S187. SEARCHING FOR BRAIN CO-EXPRESSION MODULES THAT CONTRIBUTE DISPROPORTIONATELY TO THE COMMON POLYGENIC RISK FOR SCHIZOPHRENIA

PubMed Central

Costas, Javier; Paramo, Mario; Arrojo, Manuel

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Genomic research has revealed that schizophrenia is a highly polygenic disease. Recent estimates indicate that at least 71% of genomic segments of 1 Mb include one or more risk loci for schizophrenia (Loh et al., Nature Genet 2015). This extremely high polygenicity represents a challenge to decipher the biological basis of schizophrenia, as it is expected that any set of SNPs with enough size will be associated with the disorder. Among the different gene sets available for study (such as those from Gene Ontology, KEGG pathway, Reactome pathways or protein protein interaction datasets), those based on brain co-expression networks represent putative functional relationships in the relevant tissue. The aim of this work was to identify brain co-expression networks that contribute disproportionately to the common polygenic risk for schizophrenia to get more insight on schizophrenia etiopathology. Methods We analyzed a case -control dataset consisting of 582 schizophrenia patients from Galicia, NW Spain, and 591 ancestrally matched controls, genotyped with the Illumina PsychArray. Using as discovery sample the summary results from the largest GWAS of schizophrenia to date (Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, SCZ2), we generated polygenic risk scores (PRS) in our sample based on SNPs located at genes belonging to brain co-expression modules determined by the CommonMind Consortium (Fromer et al., Nature Neurosci 2016). PRS were generated using the clumping procedure of PLINK, considering several different thresholds to select SNPs from the discovery sample. In order to test if any specific module increased risk to schizophrenia more than expected by their size, we generated up to 10,000 random permutations of the same number of SNPs, matched by frequency, distance to nearest gene, number of SNPs in LD and gene density, using SNPsnap. Results As expected, most modules with enough number of independent SNPs belonging to them showed a significant increase in

An analytical model of leakage neutron equivalent dose for passively-scattered proton radiotherapy and validation with measurements.

PubMed

Schneider, Christopher; Newhauser, Wayne; Farah, Jad

2015-05-18

Exposure to stray neutrons increases the risk of second cancer development after proton therapy. Previously reported analytical models of this exposure were difficult to configure and had not been investigated below 100 MeV proton energy. The purposes of this study were to test an analytical model of neutron equivalent dose per therapeutic absorbed dose  at 75 MeV and to improve the model by reducing the number of configuration parameters and making it continuous in proton energy from 100 to 250 MeV. To develop the analytical model, we used previously published H/D values in water from Monte Carlo simulations of a general-purpose beamline for proton energies from 100 to 250 MeV. We also configured and tested the model on in-air neutron equivalent doses measured for a 75 MeV ocular beamline. Predicted H/D values from the analytical model and Monte Carlo agreed well from 100 to 250 MeV (10% average difference). Predicted H/D values from the analytical model also agreed well with measurements at 75 MeV (15% average difference). The results indicate that analytical models can give fast, reliable calculations of neutron exposure after proton therapy. This ability is absent in treatment planning systems but vital to second cancer risk estimation.

Analytical and environmental aspects of the flame retardant tetrabromobisphenol-A and its derivatives.

PubMed

Covaci, Adrian; Voorspoels, Stefan; Abdallah, Mohamed Abou-Elwafa; Geens, Tinne; Harrad, Stuart; Law, Robin J

2009-01-16

The present article reviews the available literature on the analytical and environmental aspects of tetrabromobisphenol-A (TBBP-A), a currently intensively used brominated flame retardant (BFR). Analytical methods, including sample preparation, chromatographic separation, detection techniques, and quality control are discussed. An important recent development in the analysis of TBBP-A is the growing tendency for liquid chromatographic techniques. At the detection stage, mass-spectrometry is a well-established and reliable technology in the identification and quantification of TBBP-A. Although interlaboratory exercises for BFRs have grown in popularity in the last 10 years, only a few participating laboratories report concentrations for TBBP-A. Environmental levels of TBBP-A in abiotic and biotic matrices are low, probably due to the major use of TBBP-A as reactive FR. As a consequence, the expected human exposure is low. This is in agreement with the EU risk assessment that concluded that there is no risk for humans concerning TBBP-A exposure. Much less analytical and environmental information exists for the various groups of TBBP-A derivatives which are largely used as additive flame retardants.

Assessing the Impact of Analytical Error on Perceived Disease Severity.

PubMed

Kroll, Martin H; Garber, Carl C; Bi, Caixia; Suffin, Stephen C

2015-10-01

The perception of the severity of disease from laboratory results assumes that the results are free of analytical error; however, analytical error creates a spread of results into a band and thus a range of perceived disease severity. To assess the impact of analytical errors by calculating the change in perceived disease severity, represented by the hazard ratio, using non-high-density lipoprotein (nonHDL) cholesterol as an example. We transformed nonHDL values into ranges using the assumed total allowable errors for total cholesterol (9%) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (13%). Using a previously determined relationship between the hazard ratio and nonHDL, we calculated a range of hazard ratios for specified nonHDL concentrations affected by analytical error. Analytical error, within allowable limits, created a band of values of nonHDL, with a width spanning 30 to 70 mg/dL (0.78-1.81 mmol/L), depending on the cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. Hazard ratios ranged from 1.0 to 2.9, a 16% to 50% error. Increased bias widens this range and decreased bias narrows it. Error-transformed results produce a spread of values that straddle the various cutoffs for nonHDL. The range of the hazard ratio obscures the meaning of results, because the spread of ratios at different cutoffs overlap. The magnitude of the perceived hazard ratio error exceeds that for the allowable analytical error, and significantly impacts the perceived cardiovascular disease risk. Evaluating the error in the perceived severity (eg, hazard ratio) provides a new way to assess the impact of analytical error.

Development of a decision analytic model to support decision making and risk communication about thrombolytic treatment.

PubMed

McMeekin, Peter; Flynn, Darren; Ford, Gary A; Rodgers, Helen; Gray, Jo; Thomson, Richard G

2015-11-11

Individualised prediction of outcomes can support clinical and shared decision making. This paper describes the building of such a model to predict outcomes with and without intravenous thrombolysis treatment following ischaemic stroke. A decision analytic model (DAM) was constructed to establish the likely balance of benefits and risks of treating acute ischaemic stroke with thrombolysis. Probability of independence, (modified Rankin score mRS ≤ 2), dependence (mRS 3 to 5) and death at three months post-stroke was based on a calibrated version of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument using data from routinely treated stroke patients in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS-UK) registry. Predictions in untreated patients were validated using data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). The probability of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage in treated patients was incorporated using a scoring model from Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST) data. The model predicts probabilities of haemorrhage, death, independence and dependence at 3-months, with and without thrombolysis, as a function of 13 patient characteristics. Calibration (and inclusion of additional predictors) of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (S-TPI) addressed issues of under and over prediction. Validation with VISTA data confirmed that assumptions about treatment effect were just. The C-statistics for independence and death in treated patients in the DAM were 0.793 and 0.771 respectively, and 0.776 for independence in untreated patients from VISTA. We have produced a DAM that provides an estimation of the likely benefits and risks of thrombolysis for individual patients, which has subsequently been embedded in a computerised decision aid to support better decision-making and informed consent.

Review: visual analytics of climate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, T.; Buschmann, S.; Donges, J. F.; Marwan, N.; Schulz, H.-J.; Tominski, C.

2015-09-01

Network analysis has become an important approach in studying complex spatiotemporal behaviour within geophysical observation and simulation data. This new field produces increasing numbers of large geo-referenced networks to be analysed. Particular focus lies currently on the network analysis of the complex statistical interrelationship structure within climatological fields. The standard procedure for such network analyses is the extraction of network measures in combination with static standard visualisation methods. Existing interactive visualisation methods and tools for geo-referenced network exploration are often either not known to the analyst or their potential is not fully exploited. To fill this gap, we illustrate how interactive visual analytics methods in combination with geovisualisation can be tailored for visual climate network investigation. Therefore, the paper provides a problem analysis relating the multiple visualisation challenges to a survey undertaken with network analysts from the research fields of climate and complex systems science. Then, as an overview for the interested practitioner, we review the state-of-the-art in climate network visualisation and provide an overview of existing tools. As a further contribution, we introduce the visual network analytics tools CGV and GTX, providing tailored solutions for climate network analysis, including alternative geographic projections, edge bundling, and 3-D network support. Using these tools, the paper illustrates the application potentials of visual analytics for climate networks based on several use cases including examples from global, regional, and multi-layered climate networks.

Review: visual analytics of climate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, T.; Buschmann, S.; Donges, J. F.; Marwan, N.; Schulz, H.-J.; Tominski, C.

2015-04-01

Network analysis has become an important approach in studying complex spatiotemporal behaviour within geophysical observation and simulation data. This new field produces increasing amounts of large geo-referenced networks to be analysed. Particular focus lies currently on the network analysis of the complex statistical interrelationship structure within climatological fields. The standard procedure for such network analyses is the extraction of network measures in combination with static standard visualisation methods. Existing interactive visualisation methods and tools for geo-referenced network exploration are often either not known to the analyst or their potential is not fully exploited. To fill this gap, we illustrate how interactive visual analytics methods in combination with geovisualisation can be tailored for visual climate network investigation. Therefore, the paper provides a problem analysis, relating the multiple visualisation challenges with a survey undertaken with network analysts from the research fields of climate and complex systems science. Then, as an overview for the interested practitioner, we review the state-of-the-art in climate network visualisation and provide an overview of existing tools. As a further contribution, we introduce the visual network analytics tools CGV and GTX, providing tailored solutions for climate network analysis, including alternative geographic projections, edge bundling, and 3-D network support. Using these tools, the paper illustrates the application potentials of visual analytics for climate networks based on several use cases including examples from global, regional, and multi-layered climate networks.

Human Health Risk Assessment Calculator. In: SMARTe20ll, EPA/600/C-10/007

EPA Science Inventory

This calculator is aimed at supporting a human health risk assessment. Risk scenarios can be built by combining various health effects, exposure pathways, exposure parameters, and analytes. Scenario risk are calculated for each exposure pathway and analyte combination. The out...

Genotoxic alkenylbenzene flavourings, a contribution to risk assessment.

PubMed

Martins, Célia; Rueff, José; Rodrigues, António S

2018-06-15

Alkenylbenzenes, such as estragole, myristicin and eugenol, are present is several flavourings, functional foods, plant food supplements (PFS) and in complementary and alternative medicines (CAM) including herbal medicines. The increase in consumption in functional foods observed worldwide requires a strict analysis of the scientific validity of their benefits and risk-benefit ratio associated with their intake. Some instances of acute toxicity have been reported associated with the use of herbal medicines and PFS, in particular because quality control is poor, and this poses a risk especially in internet marketed products. In particular, chronic exposure to low levels of these constituents may pose a hazard. However, given the variability in dietary habits, plant properties, plant misidentification or interaction with pharmaceutical drugs or nutrients, the assessment of risk due to the intake of alkenylbenzenes is difficult. We herein review the regulatory status of the most common alkenylbenzenes and their genotoxic activity and potential carcinogenic activity. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Understanding Business Analytics

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-05

analytics have been used in organizations for a variety of reasons for quite some time; ranging from the simple (generating and understanding business analytics...process. understanding business analytics 3 How well these two components are orchestrated will determine the level of success an organization has in

Quantifying the Risk of Spinal Injury in Motor Vehicle Collisions According to Ambulatory Status: A Prospective Analytical Study.

PubMed

McCoy, Christopher Eric; Loza-Gomez, Angelica; Lee Puckett, James; Costantini, Samantha; Penalosa, Patrick; Anderson, Craig; Schultz, Carl

2017-02-01

The association between ambulation at the scene of a motor vehicle collision (MVC) and spinal injury has never been quantified. To evaluate the association between ambulation and spinal injury in patients involved in a MVC. Prospective analytical-observational cohort study. Inclusion: patients sustaining traumatic injury in a MVC. Exclusion: < 18 years old, pregnancy. spinal injury defined as injury to the cervical, thoracic, or lumbar spinal cord, bones, or ligaments. Secondary outcome: Injury resulting in neurological deficit, need for surgery, or death. A generalized linear model was used to evaluate the association between outcome and predictor variables. Risk ratios [RR] were reported with a point estimate and 95% confidence interval (CI). A two-tailed alpha of < 0.05 was the threshold for statistical significance. There were 704 patients analyzed. Nonambulatory patients were 2.29 times more likely to sustain a spinal injury, compared to ambulatory patients (RR 2.29, 95% CI 1.34-3.91). Patients ≥ 65 years of age were 3.27 times more likely to sustain a spinal injury (RR 3.27, 95% CI 1.66-6.45). Patients with a Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤ 8 were 4.93 times more likely to sustain a spinal injury (RR 4.93, 95% CI 1.86-13.10). In this prospective analytical-observational study evaluating the association between ambulatory status and spinal injury in patients involved in MVCs, we observed that those patients who were nonambulatory were more than two times as likely to have a spinal injury compared to those patients who were ambulatory at the scene. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Potential of Predictive Analytics and Big Data in Emergency Care.

PubMed

Janke, Alexander T; Overbeek, Daniel L; Kocher, Keith E; Levy, Phillip D

2016-02-01

Clinical research often focuses on resource-intensive causal inference, whereas the potential of predictive analytics with constantly increasing big data sources remains largely unexplored. Basic prediction, divorced from causal inference, is much easier with big data. Emergency care may benefit from this simpler application of big data. Historically, predictive analytics have played an important role in emergency care as simple heuristics for risk stratification. These tools generally follow a standard approach: parsimonious criteria, easy computability, and independent validation with distinct populations. Simplicity in a prediction tool is valuable, but technological advances make it no longer a necessity. Emergency care could benefit from clinical predictions built using data science tools with abundant potential input variables available in electronic medical records. Patients' risks could be stratified more precisely with large pools of data and lower resource requirements for comparing each clinical encounter to those that came before it, benefiting clinical decisionmaking and health systems operations. The largest value of predictive analytics comes early in the clinical encounter, in which diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty are high and resource-committing decisions need to be made. We propose an agenda for widening the application of predictive analytics in emergency care. Throughout, we express cautious optimism because there are myriad challenges related to database infrastructure, practitioner uptake, and patient acceptance. The quality of routinely compiled clinical data will remain an important limitation. Complementing big data sources with prospective data may be necessary if predictive analytics are to achieve their full potential to improve care quality in the emergency department. Copyright © 2015 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analyticity without Differentiability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirillova, Evgenia; Spindler, Karlheinz

2008-01-01

In this article we derive all salient properties of analytic functions, including the analytic version of the inverse function theorem, using only the most elementary convergence properties of series. Not even the notion of differentiability is required to do so. Instead, analytical arguments are replaced by combinatorial arguments exhibiting…

Analysis of System-Wide Investment in the National Airspace System: A Portfolio Analytical Framework and an Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhadra, Dipasis; Morser, Frederick R.

2006-01-01

In this paper, the authors review the FAA s current program investments and lay out a preliminary analytical framework to undertake projects that may address some of the noted deficiencies. By drawing upon the well developed theories from corporate finance, an analytical framework is offered that can be used for choosing FAA s investments taking into account risk, expected returns and inherent dependencies across NAS programs. The framework can be expanded into taking multiple assets and realistic values for parameters in drawing an efficient risk-return frontier for the entire FAA investment programs.

Fluid dynamics of coarctation of the aorta: analytical solution, in vitro validation and in vivo evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshavarz-Motamed, Zahra

2015-11-01

Coarctation of the aorta (COA) is a congenital heart disease corresponding to a narrowing in the aorta. Cardiac catheterization is considered to be the reference standard for definitive evaluation of COA severity, based on the peak-to-peak trans-coarctation pressure gradient (PtoP TCPG) and instantaneous systolic value of trans-COA pressure gradient (TCPG). However, invasive cardiac catheterization may carry high risks given that undergoing multiple follow-up cardiac catheterizations in patients with COA is common. The objective of this study is to present an analytical description of the COA that estimates PtoP TCPG and TCPG without a need for high risk invasive data collection. Coupled Navier-Stokes and elastic deformation equations were solved analytically to estimate TCPG and PtoP TCPG. The results were validated against data measured in vitro (e.g., 90% COA: TCPG: root mean squared error (RMSE) = 3.93 mmHg; PtoP TCPG: RMSE = 7.9 mmHg). Moreover, the estimated PtoP TCPG resulted from the suggested analytical description was validated using clinical data in twenty patients with COA (maximum RMSE: 8.3 mmHg). Very good correlation and concordance were found between TCPG and PtoP TCPG obtained from the analytical formulation and in vitro and in vivo data. The suggested methodology can be considered as an alternative to cardiac catheterization and can help preventing its risks.

Contribution of Genetic Background, Traditional Risk Factors, and HIV-Related Factors to Coronary Artery Disease Events in HIV-Positive Persons

PubMed Central

Rotger, Margalida; Glass, Tracy R.; Junier, Thomas; Lundgren, Jens; Neaton, James D.; Poloni, Estella S.; van 't Wout, Angélique B.; Lubomirov, Rubin; Colombo, Sara; Martinez, Raquel; Rauch, Andri; Günthard, Huldrych F.; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Wentworth, Deborah; van Manen, Danielle; Gras, Luuk A.; Schuitemaker, Hanneke; Albini, Laura; Torti, Carlo; Jacobson, Lisa P.; Li, Xiuhong; Kingsley, Lawrence A.; Carli, Federica; Guaraldi, Giovanni; Ford, Emily S.; Sereti, Irini; Hadigan, Colleen; Martinez, Esteban; Arnedo, Mireia; Egaña-Gorroño, Lander; Gatell, Jose M.; Law, Matthew; Bendall, Courtney; Petoumenos, Kathy; Rockstroh, Jürgen; Wasmuth, Jan-Christian; Kabamba, Kabeya; Delforge, Marc; De Wit, Stephane; Berger, Florian; Mauss, Stefan; de Paz Sierra, Mariana; Losso, Marcelo; Belloso, Waldo H.; Leyes, Maria; Campins, Antoni; Mondi, Annalisa; De Luca, Andrea; Bernardino, Ignacio; Barriuso-Iglesias, Mónica; Torrecilla-Rodriguez, Ana; Gonzalez-Garcia, Juan; Arribas, José R.; Fanti, Iuri; Gel, Silvia; Puig, Jordi; Negredo, Eugenia; Gutierrez, Mar; Domingo, Pere; Fischer, Julia; Fätkenheuer, Gerd; Alonso-Villaverde, Carlos; Macken, Alan; Woo, James; McGinty, Tara; Mallon, Patrick; Mangili, Alexandra; Skinner, Sally; Wanke, Christine A.; Reiss, Peter; Weber, Rainer; Bucher, Heiner C.; Fellay, Jacques; Telenti, Amalio; Tarr, Philip E.

2013-01-01

Background Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV infection. Methods In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the Metabochip, we genotyped 1875 HIV-positive, white individuals enrolled in 24 HIV observational studies, including 571 participants with a first CAD event during the 9-year study period and 1304 controls matched on sex and cohort. Results A genetic risk score built from 23 CAD-associated SNPs contributed significantly to CAD (P = 2.9×10−4). In the final multivariable model, participants with an unfavorable genetic background (top genetic score quartile) had a CAD odds ratio (OR) of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05–2.04). This effect was similar to hypertension (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.16–1.96), diabetes (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10–2.49), ≥1 year lopinavir exposure (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), and current abacavir treatment (OR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.17–2.07). The effect of the genetic risk score was additive to the effect of nongenetic CAD risk factors, and did not change after adjustment for family history of CAD. Conclusions In the setting of HIV infection, the effect of an unfavorable genetic background was similar to traditional CAD risk factors and certain adverse antiretroviral exposures. Genetic testing may provide prognostic information complementary to family history of CAD. PMID:23532479

Contribution of genetic background, traditional risk factors, and HIV-related factors to coronary artery disease events in HIV-positive persons.

PubMed

Rotger, Margalida; Glass, Tracy R; Junier, Thomas; Lundgren, Jens; Neaton, James D; Poloni, Estella S; van 't Wout, Angélique B; Lubomirov, Rubin; Colombo, Sara; Martinez, Raquel; Rauch, Andri; Günthard, Huldrych F; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Wentworth, Deborah; van Manen, Danielle; Gras, Luuk A; Schuitemaker, Hanneke; Albini, Laura; Torti, Carlo; Jacobson, Lisa P; Li, Xiuhong; Kingsley, Lawrence A; Carli, Federica; Guaraldi, Giovanni; Ford, Emily S; Sereti, Irini; Hadigan, Colleen; Martinez, Esteban; Arnedo, Mireia; Egaña-Gorroño, Lander; Gatell, Jose M; Law, Matthew; Bendall, Courtney; Petoumenos, Kathy; Rockstroh, Jürgen; Wasmuth, Jan-Christian; Kabamba, Kabeya; Delforge, Marc; De Wit, Stephane; Berger, Florian; Mauss, Stefan; de Paz Sierra, Mariana; Losso, Marcelo; Belloso, Waldo H; Leyes, Maria; Campins, Antoni; Mondi, Annalisa; De Luca, Andrea; Bernardino, Ignacio; Barriuso-Iglesias, Mónica; Torrecilla-Rodriguez, Ana; Gonzalez-Garcia, Juan; Arribas, José R; Fanti, Iuri; Gel, Silvia; Puig, Jordi; Negredo, Eugenia; Gutierrez, Mar; Domingo, Pere; Fischer, Julia; Fätkenheuer, Gerd; Alonso-Villaverde, Carlos; Macken, Alan; Woo, James; McGinty, Tara; Mallon, Patrick; Mangili, Alexandra; Skinner, Sally; Wanke, Christine A; Reiss, Peter; Weber, Rainer; Bucher, Heiner C; Fellay, Jacques; Telenti, Amalio; Tarr, Philip E

2013-07-01

Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV infection. In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the Metabochip, we genotyped 1875 HIV-positive, white individuals enrolled in 24 HIV observational studies, including 571 participants with a first CAD event during the 9-year study period and 1304 controls matched on sex and cohort. A genetic risk score built from 23 CAD-associated SNPs contributed significantly to CAD (P = 2.9 × 10(-4)). In the final multivariable model, participants with an unfavorable genetic background (top genetic score quartile) had a CAD odds ratio (OR) of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-2.04). This effect was similar to hypertension (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06-1.73), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.16-1.96), diabetes (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10-2.49), ≥ 1 year lopinavir exposure (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06-1.73), and current abacavir treatment (OR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.17-2.07). The effect of the genetic risk score was additive to the effect of nongenetic CAD risk factors, and did not change after adjustment for family history of CAD. In the setting of HIV infection, the effect of an unfavorable genetic background was similar to traditional CAD risk factors and certain adverse antiretroviral exposures. Genetic testing may provide prognostic information complementary to family history of CAD.

Are safety data sheets for cleaning products used in Norway a factor contributing to the risk of workers exposure to chemicals?

PubMed

Suleiman, Abdulqadir M; Svendsen, Kristin V H

2014-10-01

Cleaning products are considered less hazardous than those used in other sectors. Suppliers and distributors are less conscientious when it comes to informing users on health risks. The aim of the study was to elaborate on the usefulness and clarity of information in the safety data sheets (SDS) for cleaning products, and considering if the use of these SDSs can be seen as a risk factor towards occupational exposure to hazardous chemicals in the sector. Safety data sheets were selected based on the risk level of the product assigned in an industrial sector scheme. 320 SDSs for cleaning products were reviewed. Constituent components found in the products over a given threshold were listed and available information thereof used to assess the perceived non-hazard consideration of the chemicals. The contents of the SDSs was generic and mostly incomplete. Safety measures and health information lacked sufficient specificity despite varying compositions and concentrations of components. There is generally incompatibility between mentioned sections on the suggested non-hazardous nature of the products and health effects. Not all substances used in these products have harmonized classifications, which makes them open to various classification of the products and the suggested safety measures. This results in different companies classifying similar products differently. Risk management measures and suggested personal protective equipment (PPEs) are given haphazardly. Physical properties relevant to risk assessment are not included. The safety data sheets are ambiguous, and they lack relevant and important information. Inadequate information and risk assessment concerning the products can lead to workers being exposed to hazardous chemicals. Underestimation of the hazard contribution of the components of the products and the insufficient, non-objective mention of appropriate control and protective measures are the major contributing elements. There is a need to test the

Technical challenges for big data in biomedicine and health: data sources, infrastructure, and analytics.

PubMed

Peek, N; Holmes, J H; Sun, J

2014-08-15

To review technical and methodological challenges for big data research in biomedicine and health. We discuss sources of big datasets, survey infrastructures for big data storage and big data processing, and describe the main challenges that arise when analyzing big data. The life and biomedical sciences are massively contributing to the big data revolution through secondary use of data that were collected during routine care and through new data sources such as social media. Efficient processing of big datasets is typically achieved by distributing computation over a cluster of computers. Data analysts should be aware of pitfalls related to big data such as bias in routine care data and the risk of false-positive findings in high-dimensional datasets. The major challenge for the near future is to transform analytical methods that are used in the biomedical and health domain, to fit the distributed storage and processing model that is required to handle big data, while ensuring confidentiality of the data being analyzed.

Contribution of the Nurses’ Health Studies to Uncovering Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes: Diet, Lifestyle, Biomarkers, and Genetics

PubMed Central

Ley, Sylvia H.; Ardisson Korat, Andres V.; Sun, Qi; Tobias, Deirdre K.; Zhang, Cuilin; Qi, Lu; Willett, Walter C.; Manson, JoAnn E.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To review the contribution of the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and the NHS II to addressing hypotheses regarding risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Methods. We carried out a narrative review of 1976 to 2016 NHS and NHS II publications. Results. The NHS and NHS II have uncovered important roles in type 2 diabetes for individual nutrients, foods, dietary patterns, and physical activity independent of excess body weight. Up to 90% of type 2 diabetes cases are potentially preventable if individuals follow a healthy diet and lifestyle. The NHS investigations have also identified novel biomarkers for diabetes, including adipokines, inflammatory cytokines, nutrition metabolites, and environmental pollutants, offering new insights into the pathophysiology of the disease. Global collaborative efforts have uncovered many common genetic variants associated with type 2 diabetes and improved our understanding of gene–environment interactions. Continued efforts to identify epigenetic, metagenomic, and metabolomic risk factors for type 2 diabetes have the potential to reveal new pathways and improve prediction and prevention. Conclusions. Over the past several decades, the NHS and NHS II have made major contributions to public health recommendations and strategies designed to reduce the global burden of diabetes. PMID:27459454

Contribution of the Nurses' Health Studies to Uncovering Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes: Diet, Lifestyle, Biomarkers, and Genetics.

PubMed

Ley, Sylvia H; Ardisson Korat, Andres V; Sun, Qi; Tobias, Deirdre K; Zhang, Cuilin; Qi, Lu; Willett, Walter C; Manson, JoAnn E; Hu, Frank B

2016-09-01

To review the contribution of the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and the NHS II to addressing hypotheses regarding risk factors for type 2 diabetes. We carried out a narrative review of 1976 to 2016 NHS and NHS II publications. The NHS and NHS II have uncovered important roles in type 2 diabetes for individual nutrients, foods, dietary patterns, and physical activity independent of excess body weight. Up to 90% of type 2 diabetes cases are potentially preventable if individuals follow a healthy diet and lifestyle. The NHS investigations have also identified novel biomarkers for diabetes, including adipokines, inflammatory cytokines, nutrition metabolites, and environmental pollutants, offering new insights into the pathophysiology of the disease. Global collaborative efforts have uncovered many common genetic variants associated with type 2 diabetes and improved our understanding of gene-environment interactions. Continued efforts to identify epigenetic, metagenomic, and metabolomic risk factors for type 2 diabetes have the potential to reveal new pathways and improve prediction and prevention. Over the past several decades, the NHS and NHS II have made major contributions to public health recommendations and strategies designed to reduce the global burden of diabetes.

A big data geospatial analytics platform - Physical Analytics Integrated Repository and Services (PAIRS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamann, H.; Jimenez Marianno, F.; Klein, L.; Albrecht, C.; Freitag, M.; Hinds, N.; Lu, S.

2015-12-01

A big data geospatial analytics platform:Physical Analytics Information Repository and Services (PAIRS)Fernando Marianno, Levente Klein, Siyuan Lu, Conrad Albrecht, Marcus Freitag, Nigel Hinds, Hendrik HamannIBM TJ Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY 10598A major challenge in leveraging big geospatial data sets is the ability to quickly integrate multiple data sources into physical and statistical models and be run these models in real time. A geospatial data platform called Physical Analytics Information and Services (PAIRS) is developed on top of open source hardware and software stack to manage Terabyte of data. A new data interpolation and re gridding is implemented where any geospatial data layers can be associated with a set of global grid where the grid resolutions is doubling for consecutive layers. Each pixel on the PAIRS grid have an index that is a combination of locations and time stamp. The indexing allow quick access to data sets that are part of a global data layers and allowing to retrieve only the data of interest. PAIRS takes advantages of parallel processing framework (Hadoop) in a cloud environment to digest, curate, and analyze the data sets while being very robust and stable. The data is stored on a distributed no-SQL database (Hbase) across multiple server, data upload and retrieval is parallelized where the original analytics task is broken up is smaller areas/volume, analyzed independently, and then reassembled for the original geographical area. The differentiating aspect of PAIRS is the ability to accelerate model development across large geographical regions and spatial resolution ranging from 0.1 m up to hundreds of kilometer. System performance is benchmarked on real time automated data ingestion and retrieval of Modis and Landsat data layers. The data layers are curated for sensor error, verified for correctness, and analyzed statistically to detect local anomalies. Multi-layer query enable PAIRS to filter different data

Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks. Contribution of the IMIA Primary Healthcare Working Group.

PubMed

Liyanage, H; de Lusignan, S; Liaw, S-T; Kuziemsky, C E; Mold, F; Krause, P; Fleming, D; Jones, S

2014-08-15

Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive. To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines. We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars. We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowdsourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the "internet of things", and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources. Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance.

Cryogenic parallel, single phase flows: an analytical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichhorn, R.

2017-02-01

Managing the cryogenic flows inside a state-of-the-art accelerator cryomodule has become a demanding endeavour: In order to build highly efficient modules, all heat transfers are usually intercepted at various temperatures. For a multi-cavity module, operated at 1.8 K, this requires intercepts at 4 K and at 80 K at different locations with sometimes strongly varying heat loads which for simplicity reasons are operated in parallel. This contribution will describe an analytical approach, based on optimization theories.

Analytical Methods of Decoupling the Automotive Engine Torque Roll Axis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

JEONG, TAESEOK; SINGH, RAJENDRA

2000-06-01

This paper analytically examines the multi-dimensional mounting schemes of an automotive engine-gearbox system when excited by oscillating torques. In particular, the issue of torque roll axis decoupling is analyzed in significant detail since it is poorly understood. New dynamic decoupling axioms are presented an d compared with the conventional elastic axis mounting and focalization methods. A linear time-invariant system assumption is made in addition to a proportionally damped system. Only rigid-body modes of the powertrain are considered and the chassis elements are assumed to be rigid. Several simplified physical systems are considered and new closed-form solutions for symmetric and asymmetric engine-mounting systems are developed. These clearly explain the design concepts for the 4-point mounting scheme. Our analytical solutions match with the existing design formulations that are only applicable to symmetric geometries. Spectra for all six rigid-body motions are predicted using the alternate decoupling methods and the closed-form solutions are verified. Also, our method is validated by comparing modal solutions with prior experimental and analytical studies. Parametric design studies are carried out to illustrate the methodology. Chief contributions of this research include the development of new or refined analytical models and closed-form solutions along with improved design strategies for the torque roll axis decoupling.

[Analytical chemistry in works of Maria Skłodowska-Curie].

PubMed

Hulanicki, Adam

2012-01-01

Maria Skłodowska-Curie--a Nobel Prize winner in chemistry--the elements of learning of chemistry gained just by a dint of work of more than ten months in Warsaw in the Institute of Industry and Agriculture Museum. The Nobel Prize concerned a contribution to the progress of chemistry through the discovery of radium and polonium, separation of radium and study of properties of this amazing element. It was awarded for an extremely arduous work, during which the chemical reactions being the principles of analytical chemistry were realized. Unlike to a typical analytical procedure, an initial attempt here was the thousands of kilograms of uranium ore: pitchblende. The final effect was small amounts of new elements: polonium and radium. Both the knowledge and the intuition of the researcher let her have a triumph. The difficulties she experienced because the properties of the searched chemical elements could only be evaluated thanks to the knowledge on other chemical elements. A significant achievement was the determination of the samples by means of radioactivity measurement, which gave rise to radiochemical analytical methods. An extreme analytical precision was demanded in multiple processes of fractional crystallization and precipitation which finally led to the calculation of the atomic mass of radium.

On valuing patches: Estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanderlin, J.S.; Waser, P.M.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

2012-01-01

Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture-recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use 'contribution metrics' to infer demographic connectedness among eight local populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats, to assess their demographic closure, and to investigate sources of variation in these contributions. Using a 7 year dataset, we show that: (i) local populations are relatively independent demographically, and contributions to local population growth via dispersal within the system decline with distance; (ii) growth contributions via local survival and recruitment are greater for adults than juveniles, while contributions involving dispersal are greater for juveniles; (iii) central populations rely more on local recruitment and survival than peripheral populations; (iv) contributions involving dispersal are not clearly related to overall metapopulation density; and (v) estimated contributions from outside the system are unexpectedly large. Our analytical framework can classify metapopulations on a continuum between demographic independence and panmixia, detect hidden population growth contributions, and make inference about other population linkage forms, including rescue effects and source-sink structures. Finally, we discuss differences between demographic and genetic population linkage patterns for our system. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Text Stream Trend Analysis using Multiscale Visual Analytics with Applications to Social Media Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steed, Chad A; Beaver, Justin M; BogenII, Paul L.

In this paper, we introduce a new visual analytics system, called Matisse, that allows exploration of global trends in textual information streams with specific application to social media platforms. Despite the potential for real-time situational awareness using these services, interactive analysis of such semi-structured textual information is a challenge due to the high-throughput and high-velocity properties. Matisse addresses these challenges through the following contributions: (1) robust stream data management, (2) automated sen- timent/emotion analytics, (3) inferential temporal, geospatial, and term-frequency visualizations, and (4) a flexible drill-down interaction scheme that progresses from macroscale to microscale views. In addition to describing thesemore » contributions, our work-in-progress paper concludes with a practical case study focused on the analysis of Twitter 1% sample stream information captured during the week of the Boston Marathon bombings.« less

Analytic neutrality, anonymity, abstinence, and elective self-disclosure.

PubMed

Shill, Merton A

2004-01-01

Recent contributions to the psychoanalytic literature propose new ways of understanding analytic neutrality, anonymity, abstinence, and self-disclosure. They advocate elective self-disclosure by the analyst as an antidote to the allegedly game-playing quality of transference and resistance analysis. The analytic relationship, they assert, becomes unreal when attempts are made to observe the principles of neutrality and abstinence. Both are seen as ill-conceived because of the irreducible subjectivity and unwarranted authority of the analyst. These relational and interactional views are criticized because (1) they ignore the fact that transference and resistance analysis have from Freud onward been accepted as minimal criteria qualifying a clinical process as psychoanalytic; (2) elective self-disclosure carries metapsychological implications dismissing not only Freud's theory of motivation but motivation as a basic feature of human personality; (3) they do not recognize interpersonal relations as mental events and so do not consider the ego's ability to create intrapsychic representations of object relations; (4) elective self-disclosures within the empathic parameters of the analytic situation are themselves unreal compared to the reality of the patient's experience with other objects. Abstinence and neutrality as ideals facilitate maintenance of an internal holding environment or container for the analyst's countertransference.

[How the information system can contribute to the implementation of a risk management program in a hospital?].

PubMed

Staccini, P; Quaranta, J F; Staccini-Myx, A; Veyres, P; Jambou, P

2003-09-01

Nowadays, information system is recognised as one of the key points of the management strategy. An information system is regarded conceptualised as a mean to link 3 aspects of a firm (structure, organisation rules and staff). Its design and implementation have to meet the objectives of medical and economical evaluation, especially risk management objectives. In order to identify, analyse, reduce and prevent the occurrence of adverse events, and also to measure the efficacy and efficiency of the production of care services, the design of information systems should be based on a process analysis in order to describe and classify all the working practices within the hospital. According to various methodologies (usually top-down analysis), each process can be divided into activities. Each activity (especially each care activity) can be described according to its potential risks and expected results. For care professionals performing a task, the access to official or internal guidelines and the adverse events reporting forms has also to be defined. Putting together all the elements of such a process analysis will contribute to integrate, into daily practice, the management of risks, supported by the information system.

Analytical estimation of laser phase noise induced BER floor in coherent receiver with digital signal processing.

PubMed

Vanin, Evgeny; Jacobsen, Gunnar

2010-03-01

The Bit-Error-Ratio (BER) floor caused by the laser phase noise in the optical fiber communication system with differential quadrature phase shift keying (DQPSK) and coherent detection followed by digital signal processing (DSP) is analytically evaluated. An in-phase and quadrature (I&Q) receiver with a carrier phase recovery using DSP is considered. The carrier phase recovery is based on a phase estimation of a finite sum (block) of the signal samples raised to the power of four and the phase unwrapping at transitions between blocks. It is demonstrated that errors generated at block transitions cause the dominating contribution to the system BER floor when the impact of the additive noise is negligibly small in comparison with the effect of the laser phase noise. Even the BER floor in the case when the phase unwrapping is omitted is analytically derived and applied to emphasize the crucial importance of this signal processing operation. The analytical results are verified by full Monte Carlo simulations. The BER for another type of DQPSK receiver operation, which is based on differential phase detection, is also obtained in the analytical form using the principle of conditional probability. The principle of conditional probability is justified in the case of differential phase detection due to statistical independency of the laser phase noise induced signal phase error and the additive noise contributions. Based on the achieved analytical results the laser linewidth tolerance is calculated for different system cases.

Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

PubMed

Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

2004-04-01

Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

Strategic analytics: towards fully embedding evidence in healthcare decision-making.

PubMed

Garay, Jason; Cartagena, Rosario; Esensoy, Ali Vahit; Handa, Kiren; Kane, Eli; Kaw, Neal; Sadat, Somayeh

2015-01-01

Cancer Care Ontario (CCO) has implemented multiple information technology solutions and collected health-system data to support its programs. There is now an opportunity to leverage these data and perform advanced end-to-end analytics that inform decisions around improving health-system performance. In 2014, CCO engaged in an extensive assessment of its current data capacity and capability, with the intent to drive increased use of data for evidence-based decision-making. The breadth and volume of data at CCO uniquely places the organization to contribute to not only system-wide operational reporting, but more advanced modelling of current and future state system management and planning. In 2012, CCO established a strategic analytics practice to assist the agency's programs contextualize and inform key business decisions and to provide support through innovative predictive analytics solutions. This paper describes the organizational structure, services and supporting operations that have enabled progress to date, and discusses the next steps towards the vision of embedding evidence fully into healthcare decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Longwoods Publishing.

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to

Risk Factors Contributing to Type 2 Diabetes and Recent Advances in the Treatment and Prevention

PubMed Central

Wu, Yanling; Ding, Yanping; Tanaka, Yoshimasa; Zhang, Wen

2014-01-01

Type 2 diabetes is a serious and common chronic disease resulting from a complex inheritance-environment interaction along with other risk factors such as obesity and sedentary lifestyle. Type 2 diabetes and its complications constitute a major worldwide public health problem, affecting almost all populations in both developed and developing countries with high rates of diabetes-related morbidity and mortality. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes has been increasing exponentially, and a high prevalence rate has been observed in developing countries and in populations undergoing “westernization” or modernization. Multiple risk factors of diabetes, delayed diagnosis until micro- and macro-vascular complications arise, life-threatening complications, failure of the current therapies, and financial costs for the treatment of this disease, make it necessary to develop new efficient therapy strategies and appropriate prevention measures for the control of type 2 diabetes. Herein, we summarize our current understanding about the epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, the roles of genes, lifestyle and other factors contributing to rapid increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The core aims are to bring forward the new therapy strategies and cost-effective intervention trials of type 2 diabetes. PMID:25249787

Extended analytical formulas for the perturbed Keplerian motion under a constant control acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuiani, Federico; Vasile, Massimiliano

2015-03-01

This paper presents a set of analytical formulae for the perturbed Keplerian motion of a spacecraft under the effect of a constant control acceleration. The proposed set of formulae can treat control accelerations that are fixed in either a rotating or inertial reference frame. Moreover, the contribution of the zonal harmonic is included in the analytical formulae. It will be shown that the proposed analytical theory allows for the fast computation of long, multi-revolution spirals while maintaining good accuracy. The combined effect of different perturbations and of the shadow regions due to solar eclipse is also included. Furthermore, a simplified control parameterisation is introduced to optimise thrusting patterns with two thrust arcs and two cost arcs per revolution. This simple parameterisation is shown to ensure enough flexibility to describe complex low thrust spirals. The accuracy and speed of the proposed analytical formulae are compared against a full numerical integration with different integration schemes. An averaging technique is then proposed as an application of the analytical formulae. Finally, the paper presents an example of design of an optimal low-thrust spiral to transfer a spacecraft from an elliptical to a circular orbit around the Earth.

Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process multicriteria and Geographical information system for coastal vulnerability analysis in Morocco: The case of Mohammedia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahri, Meryem; Maanan, Mohamed; Hakdaoui, Mustapha

2016-04-01

This paper shows a method to assess the vulnerability of coastal risks such as coastal erosion or submarine applying Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and spatial analysis techniques with Geographic Information System (GIS). The coast of the Mohammedia located in Morocco was chosen as the study site to implement and validate the proposed framework by applying a GIS-FAHP based methodology. The coastal risk vulnerability mapping follows multi-parametric causative factors as sea level rise, significant wave height, tidal range, coastal erosion, elevation, geomorphology and distance to an urban area. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology enables the calculation of corresponding criteria weights. The result shows that the coastline of the Mohammedia is characterized by a moderate, high and very high level of vulnerability to coastal risk. The high vulnerability areas are situated in the east at Monika and Sablette beaches. This technical approach is based on the efficiency of the Geographic Information System tool based on Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process to help decision maker to find optimal strategies to minimize coastal risks.

Post-analytical stability of 23 common chemistry and immunochemistry analytes in incurred samples.

PubMed

Nielsen, Betina Klint; Frederiksen, Tina; Friis-Hansen, Lennart; Larsen, Pia Bükmann

2017-12-01

Storage of blood samples after centrifugation, decapping and initial sampling allows ordering of additional blood tests. The pre-analytic stability of biochemistry and immunochemistry analytes has been studied in detail, but little is known about the post-analytical stability in incurred samples. We examined the stability of 23 routine analytes on the Dimension Vista® (Siemens Healthineers, Denmark): 42-60 routine samples in lithium-heparin gel tubes (Vacutainer, BD, USA) were centrifuged at 3000×g for 10min. Immediately after centrifugation, initial concentration of analytes were measured in duplicate (t=0). The tubes were stored decapped at room temperature and re-analyzed after 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10h in singletons. The concentration from reanalysis were normalized to initial concentration (t=0). Internal acceptance criteria for bias and total error were used to determine stability of each analyte. Additionally, evaporation from the decapped blood collection tubes and the residual platelet count in the plasma after centrifugation were quantified. We report a post-analytical stability of most routine analytes of ≥8h and do therefore - with few exceptions - suggest a standard 8hour-time limit for reordering and reanalysis of analytes in incurred samples. Copyright © 2017 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding public perceptions of benefits and risks of childhood vaccinations in the United States.

PubMed

Song, Geoboo

2014-03-01

In the face of a growing public health concern accompanying the reemerging threat of preventable diseases, this research seeks mainly to explain variations in the perceived benefits and risks of vaccinations among the general public in the United States. As Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky's grid-group cultural theory of risk perception claims, the analytical results based upon original data from a nationwide Internet survey of 1,213 American adults conducted in 2010 suggest that individuals' cultural predispositions contribute to the formation of their perceptions pertaining to vaccine benefits and risks at both societal and individual levels, in conjunction with other factors suggested by previous risk perception literature, such as perceived prevalence of diseases, trust, knowledge level, and demographic characteristics. Those with a strong hierarch orientation tend to envision greater benefits and lesser risks and conceive of a relatively high ratio of benefit to risk when compared to other cultural types. By contrast, those with a strong fatalist tendency are inclined to emphasize risks and downplay benefits while conceiving of a low vaccination benefit-risk ratio. Situated between hierarchs and fatalists, strong egalitarians are prone to perceive greater benefits, smaller risks, and a more positive benefit-risk ratio than strong individualists. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Genetic risk for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder contributes to neurodevelopmental traits in the general population.

PubMed

Martin, Joanna; Hamshere, Marian L; Stergiakouli, Evangelia; O'Donovan, Michael C; Thapar, Anita

2014-10-15

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can be viewed as the extreme end of traits in the general population. Epidemiological and twin studies suggest that ADHD frequently co-occurs with and shares genetic susceptibility with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and ASD-related traits. The aims of this study were to determine whether a composite of common molecular genetic variants, previously found to be associated with clinically diagnosed ADHD, predicts ADHD and ASD-related traits in the general population. Polygenic risk scores were calculated in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) population sample (N = 8229) based on a discovery case-control genome-wide association study of childhood ADHD. Regression analyses were used to assess whether polygenic scores predicted ADHD traits and ASD-related measures (pragmatic language abilities and social cognition) in the ALSPAC sample. Polygenic scores were also compared in boys and girls endorsing any (rating ≥ 1) ADHD item (n = 3623). Polygenic risk for ADHD showed a positive association with ADHD traits (hyperactive-impulsive, p = .0039; inattentive, p = .037). Polygenic risk for ADHD was also negatively associated with pragmatic language abilities (p = .037) but not with social cognition (p = .43). In children with a rating ≥ 1 for ADHD traits, girls had a higher polygenic score than boys (p = .003). These findings provide molecular genetic evidence that risk alleles for the categorical disorder of ADHD influence hyperactive-impulsive and attentional traits in the general population. The results further suggest that common genetic variation that contributes to ADHD diagnosis may also influence ASD-related traits, which at their extreme are a characteristic feature of ASD. Copyright © 2014 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reflections on Klein's radical notion of phantasy and its implications for analytic practice.

PubMed

Blass, Rachel B

2017-06-01

Analysts may incorporate many of Melanie Klein's important contributions (e.g., on preoedipal dynamics, envy, and projective identification) without transforming their basic analytic approach. In this paper I argue that adopting the Kleinian notion of unconscious phantasy is transformative. While it is grounded in Freud's thinking and draws out something essential to his work, this notion of phantasy introduces a radical change that defines Kleinian thinking and practice and significantly impacts the analyst's basic clinical approach. This impact and its technical implications in the analytic situation are illustrated and discussed. Copyright © 2017 Institute of Psychoanalysis.

Clustering in analytical chemistry.

PubMed

Drab, Klaudia; Daszykowski, Michal

2014-01-01

Data clustering plays an important role in the exploratory analysis of analytical data, and the use of clustering methods has been acknowledged in different fields of science. In this paper, principles of data clustering are presented with a direct focus on clustering of analytical data. The role of the clustering process in the analytical workflow is underlined, and its potential impact on the analytical workflow is emphasized.

Analytical Ferrography Standardization.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-01-01

AD-AII6 508 MECHANICAL TECHNOLOGY INC LATHAM NY RESEARCH AND 0EV--ETC F/6 7/4 ANALYTICAL FERROGRAPHY STANDARDIZATION. (U) JAN 82 P A SENHOLZI, A S...ii Mwl jutio7 Unimte SMechanical Technology Incorporated Research and Development Division ReerhadDvlpetDvso I FINAL REPORT ANALYTICAL FERROGRAPHY ...Final Report MTI Technical Report No. 82TRS6 ANALYTICAL FERROGRAPHY STANDARDIZATION P. B. Senholzi A. S. Maciejewski Applications Engineering Mechanical

Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thompson, Sandra E.; Whitney, Paul D.; Weimar, Mark R.

2011-09-29

This paper represents the Department of Energy Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development (NA-22) Simulations, Algorithms and Modeling (SAM) Program's first effort to identify and frame analytical methods and tools to aid export control professionals in effectively predicting proliferation intent; a complex, multi-step and multi-agency process. The report focuses on analytical modeling methodologies that alone, or combined, may improve the proliferation export control license approval process. It is a follow-up to an earlier paper describing information sources and environments related to international nuclear technology transfer. This report describes the decision criteria used to evaluate modeling techniques and tools to determinemore » which approaches will be investigated during the final 2 years of the project. The report also details the motivation for why new modeling techniques and tools are needed. The analytical modeling methodologies will enable analysts to evaluate the information environment for relevance to detecting proliferation intent, with specific focus on assessing risks associated with transferring dual-use technologies. Dual-use technologies can be used in both weapons and commercial enterprises. A decision-framework was developed to evaluate which of the different analytical modeling methodologies would be most appropriate conditional on the uniqueness of the approach, data availability, laboratory capabilities, relevance to NA-22 and Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation (NA-24) research needs and the impact if successful. Modeling methodologies were divided into whether they could help micro-level assessments (e.g., help improve individual license assessments) or macro-level assessment. Macro-level assessment focuses on suppliers, technology, consumers, economies, and proliferation context. Macro-level assessment technologies scored higher in the area of uniqueness because less work has been done at the macro level. An

MERRA Analytic Services: Meeting the Big Data Challenges of Climate Science through Cloud-Enabled Climate Analytics-as-a-Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Tamkin, G. S.; Nadeau, D.; Thompson, J. H.; Grieg, C. M.; McInerney, M.; Webster, W. P.

2013-12-01

Climate science is a Big Data domain that is experiencing unprecedented growth. In our efforts to address the Big Data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS). We focus on analytics, because it is the knowledge gained from our interactions with Big Data that ultimately produce societal benefits. We focus on CAaaS because we believe it provides a useful way of thinking about the problem: a specialization of the concept of business process-as-a-service, which is an evolving extension of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS enabled by Cloud Computing. Within this framework, Cloud Computing plays an important role; however, we see it as only one element in a constellation of capabilities that are essential to delivering climate analytics as a service. These elements are essential because in the aggregate they lead to generativity, a capacity for self-assembly that we feel is the key to solving many of the Big Data challenges in this domain. MERRA Analytic Services (MERRA/AS) is an example of cloud-enabled CAaaS built on this principle. MERRA/AS enables MapReduce analytics over NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data collection. The MERRA reanalysis integrates observational data with numerical models to produce a global temporally and spatially consistent synthesis of 26 key climate variables. It represents a type of data product that is of growing importance to scientists doing climate change research and a wide range of decision support applications. MERRA/AS brings together the following generative elements in a full, end-to-end demonstration of CAaaS capabilities: (1) high-performance, data proximal analytics, (2) scalable data management, (3) software appliance virtualization, (4) adaptive analytics, and (5) a domain-harmonized API. The effectiveness of MERRA/AS has been demonstrated in several applications. In our experience, Cloud Computing lowers the barriers and risk to

MERRA Analytic Services: Meeting the Big Data Challenges of Climate Science Through Cloud-enabled Climate Analytics-as-a-service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Quinn; Tamkin, Glenn S.; Nadeau, Denis; Thompson, John H.; Grieg, Christina M.; McInerney, Mark A.; Webster, William P.

2014-01-01

Climate science is a Big Data domain that is experiencing unprecedented growth. In our efforts to address the Big Data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS). We focus on analytics, because it is the knowledge gained from our interactions with Big Data that ultimately produce societal benefits. We focus on CAaaS because we believe it provides a useful way of thinking about the problem: a specialization of the concept of business process-as-a-service, which is an evolving extension of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS enabled by Cloud Computing. Within this framework, Cloud Computing plays an important role; however, we it see it as only one element in a constellation of capabilities that are essential to delivering climate analytics as a service. These elements are essential because in the aggregate they lead to generativity, a capacity for self-assembly that we feel is the key to solving many of the Big Data challenges in this domain. MERRA Analytic Services (MERRAAS) is an example of cloud-enabled CAaaS built on this principle. MERRAAS enables MapReduce analytics over NASAs Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data collection. The MERRA reanalysis integrates observational data with numerical models to produce a global temporally and spatially consistent synthesis of 26 key climate variables. It represents a type of data product that is of growing importance to scientists doing climate change research and a wide range of decision support applications. MERRAAS brings together the following generative elements in a full, end-to-end demonstration of CAaaS capabilities: (1) high-performance, data proximal analytics, (2) scalable data management, (3) software appliance virtualization, (4) adaptive analytics, and (5) a domain-harmonized API. The effectiveness of MERRAAS has been demonstrated in several applications. In our experience, Cloud Computing lowers the barriers and risk to

Analytical Approach Validation for the Spin-Stabilized Satellite Attitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zanardi, Maria Cecilia F. P. S.; Garcia, Roberta Veloso; Kuga, Helio Koiti

2007-01-01

An analytical approach for spin-stabilized spacecraft attitude prediction is presented for the influence of the residual magnetic torques and the satellite in an elliptical orbit. Assuming a quadripole model for the Earth s magnetic field, an analytical averaging method is applied to obtain the mean residual torque in every orbital period. The orbit mean anomaly is used to compute the average components of residual torque in the spacecraft body frame reference system. The theory is developed for time variations in the orbital elements, giving rise to many curvature integrals. It is observed that the residual magnetic torque does not have component along the spin axis. The inclusion of this torque on the rotational motion differential equations of a spin stabilized spacecraft yields conditions to derive an analytical solution. The solution shows that the residual torque does not affect the spin velocity magnitude, contributing only for the precession and the drift of the spin axis of the spacecraft. The theory developed has been applied to the Brazilian s spin stabilized satellites, which are quite appropriated for verification and comparison of the theory with the data generated and processed by the Satellite Control Center of Brazil National Research Institute. The results show the period that the analytical solution can be used to the attitude propagation, within the dispersion range of the attitude determination system performance of Satellite Control Center of Brazil National Research Institute.

Big data in health care: using analytics to identify and manage high-risk and high-cost patients.

PubMed

Bates, David W; Saria, Suchi; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Shah, Anand; Escobar, Gabriel

2014-07-01

The US health care system is rapidly adopting electronic health records, which will dramatically increase the quantity of clinical data that are available electronically. Simultaneously, rapid progress has been made in clinical analytics--techniques for analyzing large quantities of data and gleaning new insights from that analysis--which is part of what is known as big data. As a result, there are unprecedented opportunities to use big data to reduce the costs of health care in the United States. We present six use cases--that is, key examples--where some of the clearest opportunities exist to reduce costs through the use of big data: high-cost patients, readmissions, triage, decompensation (when a patient's condition worsens), adverse events, and treatment optimization for diseases affecting multiple organ systems. We discuss the types of insights that are likely to emerge from clinical analytics, the types of data needed to obtain such insights, and the infrastructure--analytics, algorithms, registries, assessment scores, monitoring devices, and so forth--that organizations will need to perform the necessary analyses and to implement changes that will improve care while reducing costs. Our findings have policy implications for regulatory oversight, ways to address privacy concerns, and the support of research on analytics. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

The effects of risk-glorifying media exposure on risk-positive cognitions, emotions, and behaviors: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Kastenmüller, Andreas; Vogrincic, Claudia; Sauer, Anne

2011-05-01

In recent years, there has been a surge in the quantity of media content that glorifies risk-taking behavior, such as risky driving, extreme sports, or binge drinking. The authors conducted a meta-analysis involving more than 80,000 participants and 105 independent effect sizes to examine whether exposure to such media depictions increased their recipients' risk-taking inclinations. A positive connection was found for overall, combined risk taking (g=.41); as well as its underlying dimensions: risk-taking behaviors (g=.41), risk-positive cognitions and attitudes (g=.35), and risk-positive emotions (g=.56). This effect was observed across varying research methods (experimental, correlational, longitudinal); types of media (video games, movies, advertising, TV, music); and differing risk-related outcome measures (e.g., smoking, drinking, risky driving, sexual behavior). Multiple moderator analyses revealed 2 theoretically new boundary conditions for sociocognitive models. First, the effect was stronger for active (i.e., video games) than for passive (e.g., film, music) exposure to risk-glorifying media content. Second, the effect was stronger when there was a high degree of contextual fit between the media content and type of risk-taking measure. The theoretical, practical, and societal implications of the present research synthesis are discussed. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Piezoelectric sensors based on molecular imprinted polymers for detection of low molecular mass analytes.

PubMed

Uludağ, Yildiz; Piletsky, Sergey A; Turner, Anthony P F; Cooper, Matthew A

2007-11-01

Biomimetic recognition elements employed for the detection of analytes are commonly based on proteinaceous affibodies, immunoglobulins, single-chain and single-domain antibody fragments or aptamers. The alternative supra-molecular approach using a molecularly imprinted polymer now has proven utility in numerous applications ranging from liquid chromatography to bioassays. Despite inherent advantages compared with biochemical/biological recognition (which include robustness, storage endurance and lower costs) there are few contributions that describe quantitative analytical applications of molecularly imprinted polymers for relevant small molecular mass compounds in real-world samples. There is, however, significant literature describing the use of low-power, portable piezoelectric transducers to detect analytes in environmental monitoring and other application areas. Here we review the combination of molecularly imprinted polymers as recognition elements with piezoelectric biosensors for quantitative detection of small molecules. Analytes are classified by type and sample matrix presentation and various molecularly imprinted polymer synthetic fabrication strategies are also reviewed.

Combination of Cyclodextrin and Ionic Liquid in Analytical Chemistry: Current and Future Perspectives.

PubMed

Hui, Boon Yih; Raoov, Muggundha; Zain, Nur Nadhirah Mohamad; Mohamad, Sharifah; Osman, Hasnah

2017-09-03

The growth in driving force and popularity of cyclodextrin (CDs) and ionic liquids (ILs) as promising materials in the field of analytical chemistry has resulted in an exponentially increase of their exploitation and production in analytical chemistry field. CDs belong to the family of cyclic oligosaccharides composing of α-(1,4) linked glucopyranose subunits and possess a cage-like supramolecular structure. This structure enables chemical reactions to proceed between interacting ions, radical or molecules in the absence of covalent bonds. Conversely, ILs are an ionic fluids comprising of only cation and anion often with immeasurable vapor pressure making them as green or designer solvent. The cooperative effect between CD and IL due to their fascinating properties, have nowadays contributed their footprints for a better development in analytical chemistry nowadays. This comprehensive review serves to give an overview on some of the recent studies and provides an analytical trend for the application of CDs with the combination of ILs that possess beneficial and remarkable effects in analytical chemistry including their use in various sample preparation techniques such as solid phase extraction, magnetic solid phase extraction, cloud point extraction, microextraction, and separation techniques which includes gas chromatography, high-performance liquid chromatography, capillary electrophoresis as well as applications of electrochemical sensors as electrode modifiers with references to recent applications. This review will highlight the nature of interactions and synergic effects between CDs, ILs, and analytes. It is hoped that this review will stimulate further research in analytical chemistry.

[The contributing risk factors, prevention and treatment of functional dependence among the oldest-old and elderly subjects].

PubMed

Liu, Dianrong; Tan, Jiping; Guo, Yuhe; Ye, Guanghua; Zhu, Linqi; Zhang, Jun; Li, Yinghao; Deng, Yucheng; Wang, Guichen; Wang, Luning

2014-10-01

To compare the risk factors on the functional dependence between the oldest-old and elderly veterans. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among veterans ( ≥ 60 years of age) lived in 44 veterans' communities in Beijing. The socio-demographic information and history of non-communicable chronic diseases were collected via face-to-face interviews, and the functional status was assessed by the 20-item version of the Activities of Daily Living Scale. The risk factors associated with increased hazard of the functional dependence in the oldest-old ( ≥ 80 years old) were cognitive impairment, extrapyramidal diseases, cerebral infarction, transient ischemic attack, sleep disorders, hypnotics, osteoarthrosis, hypertension and fall with the odds ratio (OR) of 1.241-2.962 (all P < 0.05). Stroke, depression, cognitive impairment, extrapyramidal diseases, sleep disorders, hypnotics, fall, cardiovascular diseases, osteoarthrosis and hearing loss were the risk factors for that in the elderly subjects (aged 60-79 years). The OR was 1.232-5.790 (all P < 0.05). However, avocational activities such as social activity, physical exercise, photography, reading and games, decreased the risk of functional dependence in both the oldest-old and elderly people. Neuropsychiatric disorders are the leading causes contributed to the functional dependence among oldest-old and elderly population. Neurodegenerative diseases in the oldest-old, stroke and depression in elderly people should be the priorities in ameliorating disability. Healthy lifestyle and avocational activities could improve the functional status of the oldest-old and elderly population.

An improved algorithm for balanced POD through an analytic treatment of impulse response tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, Jonathan H.; Rowley, Clarence W.

2012-06-01

We present a modification of the balanced proper orthogonal decomposition (balanced POD) algorithm for systems with simple impulse response tails. In this new method, we use dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to estimate the slowly decaying eigenvectors that dominate the long-time behavior of the direct and adjoint impulse responses. This is done using a new, low-memory variant of the DMD algorithm, appropriate for large datasets. We then formulate analytic expressions for the contribution of these eigenvectors to the controllability and observability Gramians. These contributions can be accounted for in the balanced POD algorithm by simply appending the impulse response snapshot matrices (direct and adjoint, respectively) with particular linear combinations of the slow eigenvectors. Aside from these additions to the snapshot matrices, the algorithm remains unchanged. By treating the tails analytically, we eliminate the need to run long impulse response simulations, lowering storage requirements and speeding up ensuing computations. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we apply this method to two examples: the linearized, complex Ginzburg-Landau equation, and the two-dimensional fluid flow past a cylinder. As expected, reduced-order models computed using an analytic tail match or exceed the accuracy of those computed using the standard balanced POD procedure, at a fraction of the cost.

The contribution of prenatal and postnatal maternal anxiety and depression to child maladjustment.

PubMed

Barker, Edward D; Jaffee, Sara R; Uher, Rudolf; Maughan, Barbara

2011-08-01

The adverse effect of both pre- and post-natal maternal anxiety and depression on the development of offspring is shown by a large body of research. No published studies, however, have simultaneously: (i) controlled for co-occurring prenatal risks that may influence maternal prenatal anxiety and depression; (ii) compared the relative contributions of prenatal and postnatal maternal anxiety and depression on child functioning; and (iii) assessed a full range of child psychopathology and functioning to determine the relative effects of prenatal and postnatal anxiety and depression in the mother. Using 3,298 mother-offspring pairs, the authors examined these factors in a single-path analytic model. Measurements of maternal anxiety and depression were collected at two time points: 32 weeks prenatal and 1.5 years postnatal. Other prenatal risks were assessed between 8 and 32 weeks of gestation. Child outcomes included (a) ordered-categorical measures of DSM-IV externalizing and internalizing disorders, and (b) an assessment of verbal IQ. In both the prenatal and postnatal periods, maternal depression had a wider impact on different types of child maladjustment than maternal anxiety, which appeared more specific to internalizing difficulties in the child. Of note, prenatal risks were prospectively associated with child externalizing difficulties and verbal IQ, beyond the effects of prenatal and postnatal maternal anxiety and depression. The present results suggest that addressing both maternal anxiety and depression, in the prenatal and postnatal periods-as well as associated risk factors-may be the most effective approach to prevent adverse outcomes in the offspring. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Measuring the Risk of Shortfalls in Air Force Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-03-01

quantifying risk and simplifying that quantification in a risk measure is to order different risks and, ultimately, to choose between them. The...the analytic goal of understanding and quantifying risk . The growth in information technology, and the amount of data collected on, for example

QED contributions to electron g-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laporta, Stefano

2018-05-01

In this paper I briefly describe the results of the numerical evaluation of the mass-independent 4-loop contribution to the electron g-2 in QED with 1100 digits of precision. In particular I also show the semi-analytical fit to the numerical value, which contains harmonic polylogarithms of eiπ/3, e2iπ/3 and eiπ/2 one-dimensional integrals of products of complete elliptic integrals and six finite parts of master integrals, evaluated up to 4800 digits. I give also some information about the methods and the program used.

Contribution of Spaceflight Environmental Factors to Vision Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zanello, Susana B.

2011-01-01

The risk of visual impairment and elevated intracranial pressure as a result of low-earth orbit microgravity exposure has directed our attention and research efforts to the eye. While the alterations observed in astronauts returning from long duration missions include vision and neuroanatomical changes observed by non-invasive methods, other effects and subsequent tissue responses at the molecular and cellular level can only be studied by accessing the tissue itself. As a result of this need, several studies are currently taking place within the Human and Health Countermeasures Element (HHC) that use animal models for eye research. The rodent eye has many similarities to the human eye, and both rats and mice have historically been used as models of human eye disease, aiding in the identification of the disease genes, elucidation of mechanisms of disease, as well as in the assessment of therapeutic treatments. These studies attempt to answer two central questions in the etiology of possible vision alterations in the environment of space exploration missions. The first is: what effects and response mechanisms take place in the different eye structures at the cellular and molecular level? The second question is directed to elucidate the contribution of the various environmental stressors (radiation, nutrition, fluid shift) to these effects. Collaborative approaches with internal and external investigators have allowed performing these studies in a most cost-effective fashion, providing preliminary data and laying the bases for testing further hypotheses in future and specifically designed animal experiments. From a study centered on the radioadaptive response in mice, we have learned that the retina responds to low and high dose gamma radiation by elevating antioxidant-related genes at early time points (4hrs) and that this response returns to control levels after 1 day post-irradiation. We are expanding this research with another collaborative study that investigates

Differential Contributions of Nucleus Accumbens Subregions to Cue-Guided Risk/Reward Decision Making and Implementation of Conditional Rules.

PubMed

Floresco, Stan B; Montes, David R; Tse, Maric M T; van Holstein, Mieke

2018-02-21

The nucleus accumbens (NAc) is a key node within corticolimbic circuitry for guiding action selection and cost/benefit decision making in situations involving reward uncertainty. Preclinical studies have typically assessed risk/reward decision making using assays where decisions are guided by internally generated representations of choice-outcome contingencies. Yet, real-life decisions are often influenced by external stimuli that inform about likelihoods of obtaining rewards. How different subregions of the NAc mediate decision making in such situations is unclear. Here, we used a novel assay colloquially termed the "Blackjack" task that models these types of situations. Male Long-Evans rats were trained to choose between one lever that always delivered a one-pellet reward and another that delivered four pellets with different probabilities [either 50% (good-odds) or 12.5% (poor-odds)], which were signaled by one of two auditory cues. Under control conditions, rats selected the large/risky option more often on good-odds versus poor-odds trials. Inactivation of the NAc core caused indiscriminate choice patterns. In contrast, NAc shell inactivation increased risky choice, more prominently on poor-odds trials. Additional experiments revealed that both subregions contribute to auditory conditional discrimination. NAc core or shell inactivation reduced Pavlovian approach elicited by an auditory CS+, yet shell inactivation also increased responding during presentation of a CS-. These data highlight distinct contributions for NAc subregions in decision making and reward seeking guided by discriminative stimuli. The core is crucial for implementation of conditional rules, whereas the shell refines reward seeking by mitigating the allure of larger, unlikely rewards and reducing expression of inappropriate or non-rewarded actions. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Using external cues to guide decision making is crucial for adaptive behavior. Deficits in cue-guided behavior have been

Downscaling catchment scale flood risk to contributing sub-catchments to determine the optimum location for flood management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattison, Ian; Lane, Stuart; Hardy, Richard; Reaney, Sim

2010-05-01

The recent increase in flood frequency and magnitude has been hypothesised to have been caused by either climate change or land management. Field scale studies have found that changing land management practices does affect local runoff and streamflow, but upscaling these effects to the catchment scale continues to be problematic, both conceptually and more importantly methodologically. The impact on downstream flood risk is highly dependent upon where the changes are in the catchment, indicating that some areas of the catchment are more important in determining downstream flood risk than others. This is a major flaw in the traditional approach to studying the effect of land use on downstream flood risk: catchment scale hydrological models, which treat every cell in the model equally. We are proposing an alternative ideological approach for doing flood management research, which is underpinned by downscaling the downstream effect (problem i.e. flooding) to the upstream causes (contributing sub-catchments). It is hoped that this approach could have several benefits over the traditional upscaling approach. Firstly, it provides an efficient method to prioritise areas for land use management changes to be implemented to reduce downstream flood risk. Secondly, targets for sub-catchment hydrograph change can be determined which will deliver the required downstream effect. Thirdly, it may be possible to detect the effect of land use changes in upstream areas on downstream flood risk, by weighting the areas of most importance in hydrological models. Two methods for doing this downscaling are proposed; 1) data-based statistical analysis; and 2) hydraulic modelling-based downscaling. These will be outlined using the case study of the River Eden, Cumbria, NW England. The data-based methodology uses the timing and magnitude of floods for each sub-catchment. Principal components analysis (PCA) is used to simplify sub-catchment interactions and optimising stepwise regression is

An Investigation of First-Year Engineering Student and Instructor Perspectives of Learning Analytics Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knight, David B.; Brozina, Cory; Novoselich, Brian

2016-01-01

This paper investigates how first-year engineering undergraduates and their instructors describe the potential for learning analytics approaches to contribute to student success. Results of qualitative data collection in a first-year engineering course indicated that both students and instructors\temphasized a preference for learning analytics…

A theory of how rural health services contribute to community sustainability.

PubMed

Farmer, Jane; Prior, Maria; Taylor, Judy

2012-11-01

Study and opinion suggest that health services play a significant role in supporting the social fabric of fragile rural communities. We draw on empirical evidence about the added-value contributions of health services to communities and unite it with theory of capitals to propose a theoretical model depicting how rural health services contribute to community sustainability. While providing an analytical framework, the paper also points to construction of a measurement tool for enabling planners to measure the contributions of diverse sectors to community sustainability and predict or measure the impact of changes to models of service delivery on the future of rural communities. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual banned-substance review: analytical approaches in human sports drug testing.

PubMed

Thevis, Mario; Kuuranne, Tiia; Geyer, Hans; Schänzer, Wilhelm

2014-01-01

Monitoring the misuse of drugs and the abuse of substances and methods potentially or evidently improving athletic performance by analytical chemistry strategies is one of the main pillars of modern anti-doping efforts. Owing to the continuously growing knowledge in medicine, pharmacology, and (bio)chemistry, new chemical entities are frequently established and developed, various of which present a temptation for sportsmen and women due to assumed/attributed beneficial effects of such substances and preparations on, for example, endurance, strength, and regeneration. By means of new technologies, expanded existing test protocols, new insights into metabolism, distribution, and elimination of compounds prohibited by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), analytical assays have been further improved in agreement with the content of the 2013 Prohibited List. In this annual banned-substance review, literature concerning human sports drug testing that was published between October 2012 and September 2013 is summarized and reviewed with particular emphasis on analytical approaches and their contribution to enhanced doping controls. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Annual banned-substance review: analytical approaches in human sports drug testing.

PubMed

Thevis, Mario; Kuuranne, Tiia; Walpurgis, Katja; Geyer, Hans; Schänzer, Wilhelm

2016-01-01

The aim of improving anti-doping efforts is predicated on several different pillars, including, amongst others, optimized analytical methods. These commonly result from exploiting most recent developments in analytical instrumentation as well as research data on elite athletes' physiology in general, and pharmacology, metabolism, elimination, and downstream effects of prohibited substances and methods of doping, in particular. The need for frequent and adequate adaptations of sports drug testing procedures has been incessant, largely due to the uninterrupted emergence of new chemical entities but also due to the apparent use of established or even obsolete drugs for reasons other than therapeutic means, such as assumed beneficial effects on endurance, strength, and regeneration capacities. Continuing the series of annual banned-substance reviews, literature concerning human sports drug testing published between October 2014 and September 2015 is summarized and reviewed in reference to the content of the 2015 Prohibited List as issued by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), with particular emphasis on analytical approaches and their contribution to enhanced doping controls. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On Statistical Approaches for Demonstrating Analytical Similarity in the Presence of Correlation.

PubMed

Yang, Harry; Novick, Steven; Burdick, Richard K

Analytical similarity is the foundation for demonstration of biosimilarity between a proposed product and a reference product. For this assessment, currently the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends a tiered system in which quality attributes are categorized into three tiers commensurate with their risk and approaches of varying statistical rigor are subsequently used for the three-tier quality attributes. Key to the analyses of Tiers 1 and 2 quality attributes is the establishment of equivalence acceptance criterion and quality range. For particular licensure applications, the FDA has provided advice on statistical methods for demonstration of analytical similarity. For example, for Tier 1 assessment, an equivalence test can be used based on an equivalence margin of 1.5 σ R , where σ R is the reference product variability estimated by the sample standard deviation S R from a sample of reference lots. The quality range for demonstrating Tier 2 analytical similarity is of the form X̄ R ± K × σ R where the constant K is appropriately justified. To demonstrate Tier 2 analytical similarity, a large percentage (e.g., 90%) of test product must fall in the quality range. In this paper, through both theoretical derivations and simulations, we show that when the reference drug product lots are correlated, the sample standard deviation S R underestimates the true reference product variability σ R As a result, substituting S R for σ R in the Tier 1 equivalence acceptance criterion and the Tier 2 quality range inappropriately reduces the statistical power and the ability to declare analytical similarity. Also explored is the impact of correlation among drug product lots on Type I error rate and power. Three methods based on generalized pivotal quantities are introduced, and their performance is compared against a two-one-sided tests (TOST) approach. Finally, strategies to mitigate risk of correlation among the reference products lots are discussed. A

45 CFR 153.400 - Reinsurance contribution funds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Reinsurance contribution funds. 153.400 Section 153.400 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE...

The Analytical Chemistry of Drug Monitoring in Athletes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowers, Larry D.

2009-07-01

The detection and deterrence of the abuse of performance-enhancing drugs in sport are important to maintaining a level playing field among athletes and to decreasing the risk to athletes’ health. The World Anti-Doping Program consists of six documents, three of which play a role in analytical development: The World Anti-Doping Code, The List of Prohibited Substances and Methods, and The International Standard for Laboratories. Among the classes of prohibited substances, three have given rise to the most recent analytical developments in the field: anabolic agents; peptide and protein hormones; and methods to increase oxygen delivery to the tissues, including recombinant erythropoietin. Methods for anabolic agents, including designer steroids, have been enhanced through the use of liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry and gas chromatography/combustion/isotope-ratio mass spectrometry. Protein and peptide identification and quantification have benefited from advances in liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry. Incorporation of techniques such as flow cytometry and isoelectric focusing have supported the detection of blood doping.

Perinatal testosterone contributes to mid-to-post pubertal sex differences in risk for binge eating in male and female rats.

PubMed

Culbert, Kristen M; Sinclair, Elaine B; Hildebrandt, Britny A; Klump, Kelly L; Sisk, Cheryl L

2018-02-01

Exposure to testosterone early in life may contribute to sex differences and pubertal changes in risk for eating pathology (i.e., females > males, after pubertal onset). Specifically, perinatal testosterone permanently alters brain structure/function and drives the masculinization of several sex-differentiated behaviors. However, the effects of perinatal testosterone are often not evident until puberty when increases in gonadal hormones activate the expression of sex typical behavior, including eating behaviors (e.g., chow intake; saccharin preference) in rodents. Despite perinatal testosterone's masculinizing effects on general feeding behavior, it remains unknown if perinatal testosterone exposure contributes to sex differences in pathological eating. The current study addressed this gap by examining whether perinatal testosterone exposure decreases risk for binge eating proneness after pubertal onset in male and female rats. Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 40 oil-treated control females; n = 39 testosterone-treated females; n = 40 oil-treated control males) were followed longitudinally across pre-to-early puberty, mid-to-late puberty, and adulthood. The binge eating prone (BEP)/binge eating resistant (BER) rodent model was used to identify individual differences in binge eating proneness across the dimensional spectrum. As expected, testosterone-treated females and control males showed masculinized (i.e., lower) risk for binge eating as compared to control females, but only after midpuberty. These animal data are significant in suggesting that perinatal testosterone exposure may protect against binge eating and underlie sex differences in binge eating prevalence during and after puberty. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Analytical screening of low emissions, high performance duct burners for supersonic cruise aircraft engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lohmann, R. A.; Riecke, G. T.

1977-01-01

An analytical screening study was conducted to identify duct burner concepts capable of providing low emissions and high performance in advanced supersonic engines. Duct burner configurations ranging from current augmenter technology to advanced concepts such as premix-prevaporized burners were defined. Aerothermal and mechanical design studies provided the basis for screening these configurations using the criteria of emissions, performance, engine compatibility, cost, weight and relative risk. Technology levels derived from recently defined experimental low emissions main burners are required to achieve both low emissions and high performance goals. A configuration based on the Vorbix (Vortex burning and mixing) combustor concept was analytically determined to meet the performance goals and is consistent with the fan duct envelope of a variable cycle engine. The duct burner configuration has a moderate risk level compatible with the schedule of anticipated experimental programs.

A new tool for the evaluation of the analytical procedure: Green Analytical Procedure Index.

PubMed

Płotka-Wasylka, J

2018-05-01

A new means for assessing analytical protocols relating to green analytical chemistry attributes has been developed. The new tool, called GAPI (Green Analytical Procedure Index), evaluates the green character of an entire analytical methodology, from sample collection to final determination, and was created using such tools as the National Environmental Methods Index (NEMI) or Analytical Eco-Scale to provide not only general but also qualitative information. In GAPI, a specific symbol with five pentagrams can be used to evaluate and quantify the environmental impact involved in each step of an analytical methodology, mainly from green through yellow to red depicting low, medium to high impact, respectively. The proposed tool was used to evaluate analytical procedures applied in the determination of biogenic amines in wine samples, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon determination by EPA methods. GAPI tool not only provides an immediately perceptible perspective to the user/reader but also offers exhaustive information on evaluated procedures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

THE PSYCHOANALYTIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF MELITTA SCHMIDEBERG KLEIN. MORE THAN MELANIE KLEIN'S REBEL DAUGHTER.

PubMed

Cassullo, Gabriele

2016-03-01

Compared to the impact of the work of Melanie Klein on the history of psychoanalysis, the contributions of her daughter, Melitta Schmideberg, passed almost unnoticed. At present, Schmideberg is solely remembered for having harshly attacked her mother at the start of the Controversial Discussions of the British Psycho-Analytical Society and for having coined the fitting expression "stable instability" in order to describe borderline and asocial personality disorders. However, the author discusses how the early groundbreaking discoveries of Klein with regards to primitive anxieties were the result of the joint work and thinking of Melanie and Melitta. Moreover, he argues that the conflict between the two, along with the subsequent polarization of their views, did not facilitate the development of psychoanalysis, neither did it help the analytic community to recognize the value of Melitta's contributions to psychoanalysis.

Analytic cognitive style, not delusional ideation, predicts data gathering in a large beads task study.

PubMed

Ross, Robert M; Pennycook, Gordon; McKay, Ryan; Gervais, Will M; Langdon, Robyn; Coltheart, Max

2016-07-01

It has been proposed that deluded and delusion-prone individuals gather less evidence before forming beliefs than those who are not deluded or delusion-prone. The primary source of evidence for this "jumping to conclusions" (JTC) bias is provided by research that utilises the "beads task" data-gathering paradigm. However, the cognitive mechanisms subserving data gathering in this task are poorly understood. In the largest published beads task study to date (n = 558), we examined data gathering in the context of influential dual-process theories of reasoning. Analytic cognitive style (the willingness or disposition to critically evaluate outputs from intuitive processing and engage in effortful analytic processing) predicted data gathering in a non-clinical sample, but delusional ideation did not. The relationship between data gathering and analytic cognitive style suggests that dual-process theories of reasoning can contribute to our understanding of the beads task. It is not clear why delusional ideation was not found to be associated with data gathering or analytic cognitive style.

Analytical Chemistry in the Regulatory Science of Medical Devices.

PubMed

Wang, Yi; Guan, Allan; Wickramasekara, Samanthi; Phillips, K Scott

2018-06-12

In the United States, regulatory science is the science of developing new tools, standards, and approaches to assess the safety, efficacy, quality, and performance of all Food and Drug Administration-regulated products. Good regulatory science facilitates consumer access to innovative medical devices that are safe and effective throughout the Total Product Life Cycle (TPLC). Because the need to measure things is fundamental to the regulatory science of medical devices, analytical chemistry plays an important role, contributing to medical device technology in two ways: It can be an integral part of an innovative medical device (e.g., diagnostic devices), and it can be used to support medical device development throughout the TPLC. In this review, we focus on analytical chemistry as a tool for the regulatory science of medical devices. We highlight recent progress in companion diagnostics, medical devices on chips for preclinical testing, mass spectrometry for postmarket monitoring, and detection/characterization of bacterial biofilm to prevent infections.

Translating tumor biology into personalized treatment planning: analytical performance characteristics of the Oncotype DX® Colon Cancer Assay

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The Oncotype DX® Colon Cancer Assay is a new diagnostic test for determining the likelihood of recurrence in stage II colon cancer patients after surgical resection using fixed paraffin embedded (FPE) primary colon tumor tissue. Like the Oncotype DX Breast Cancer Assay, this is a high complexity, multi-analyte, reverse transcription (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay that measures the expression levels of specific cancer-related genes. By capturing the biology underlying each patient's tumor, the Oncotype DX Colon Cancer Assay provides a Recurrence Score (RS) that reflects an individualized risk of disease recurrence. Here we describe its analytical performance using pre-determined performance criteria, which is a critical component of molecular diagnostic test validation. Results All analytical measurements met pre-specified performance criteria. PCR amplification efficiency for all 12 assays was high, ranging from 96% to 107%, while linearity was demonstrated over an 11 log2 concentration range for all assays. Based on estimated components of variance for FPE RNA pools, analytical reproducibility and precision demonstrated low SDs for individual genes (0.16 to 0.32 CTs), gene groups (≤0.05 normalized/aggregate CTs) and RS (≤1.38 RS units). Conclusions Analytical performance characteristics shown here for both individual genes and gene groups in the Oncotype DX Colon Cancer Assay demonstrate consistent translation of specific biology of individual tumors into clinically useful diagnostic information. The results of these studies illustrate how the analytical capability of the Oncotype DX Colon Cancer Assay has enabled clinical validation of a test to determine individualized recurrence risk after colon cancer surgery. PMID:21176237

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a tool in asset allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainol Abidin, Siti Nazifah; Mohd Jaffar, Maheran

2013-04-01

Allocation capital investment into different assets is the best way to balance the risk and reward. This can prevent from losing big amount of money. Thus, the aim of this paper is to help investors in making wise investment decision in asset allocation. This paper proposes modifying and adapting Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model. The AHP model is widely used in various fields of study that are related in decision making. The results of the case studies show that the proposed model can categorize stocks and determine the portion of capital investment. Hence, it can assist investors in decision making process and reduce the risk of loss in stock market investment.

[Systemic candidiasis in medical intensive care unit: analysis of risk factors and the contribution of colonization index].

PubMed

Massou, S; Ahid, S; Azendour, H; Bensghir, M; Mounir, K; Iken, M; Lmimouni, B E; Balkhi, H; Drissi Kamili, N; Haimeur, C

2013-06-01

Description of the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the patients introducing risk factors of invasive candidiasis. Analysis of risk factors for candidiasis invasive and evaluation of the contribution of colonization index (CI) in the diagnosis of the systematic candidiasis in medical intensive care. Prospective observational study (October 2007 to October 2009). The selected patients present risk factors of system IC candidiasis with an infectious syndrome or clinical signs suggestive of Candida infection and hospitalized more than 48 hours in medical intensive care unit. Pittet's colonization index was calculated at admission and then once a week added to a blood culture. Patients were classified according to level of evidence of Candida infection and the degree of colonization (CI<0.5, CI ≥ 0.5). The study included 100 patients. Mean age of our patients was 55.8 ± 18.2 years with male prevalence. Neurological disease was the most frequent pathology in admission (48%). The most common risk factors were broad-spectrum antibiotics and foreign material. In the various mycology IC specimens, Candida albicans was the most frequent, followed by C. tropicalis, then C. glabrata. The CI was greater than or equal to 0.5 at 53% of the patients, and less than 0.5 in 47% of the cases. Among the patients, 15% developed an invasive candidiasis. In multivariate analysis, the corticosteroid therapy was associated with a high colonisation (IC ≥ 0.5) and neutropenia with a high risk of systemic candidiasis. The positive predictive value of CI was 26%. The negative predictive value was 98%, the sensitivity and specificity was 93% and 48% respectively. CI has the advantage to provide a quantified data of the patient's situation in relation to the colonization. But, it isn't helpful with patients having an invasive candidiasis in medical intensive care unit. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Screening for Chemical Contributions to Breast Cancer Risk: A Case Study for Chemical Safety Evaluation

PubMed Central

Ackerman, Janet M.; Dairkee, Shanaz H.; Fenton, Suzanne E.; Johnson, Dale; Navarro, Kathleen M.; Osborne, Gwendolyn; Rudel, Ruthann A.; Solomon, Gina M.; Zeise, Lauren; Janssen, Sarah

2015-01-01

. Screening for chemical contributions to breast cancer risk: a case study for chemical safety evaluation. Environ Health Perspect 123:1255–1264; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408337 PMID:26032647

The plausibility of maternal toxicant exposure and nutritional status as contributing factors to the risk of autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Nuttall, Johnathan R

2017-05-01

Recent research suggests the maternal environment may be especially important for the risk of developing autism spectrum disorders (ASD). In particular maternal infections, micronutrient deficiencies, obesity, and toxicant exposures are likely to interact with genetic risk factors to disrupt fetal brain development. The goal of this paper is to investigate the plausibility of maternal toxicant exposure and nutritional status as causal factors in the development of ASD. This paper reviews current research investigating the hypothesis that maternal toxicant exposure and prenatal micronutrient intake are important modifiable risk factors for ASD. Zinc, copper, iron, and vitamin B9 are identified as specific micronutrients with relevance to the etiology of ASD. Specific toxicants induce a maternal inflammatory response leading to fetal micronutrient deficiencies that disrupt early brain development. Importantly, maternal micronutrient supplementation is associated with reduced risk of ASD. Furthermore, animal studies show that micronutrient supplementation can prevent the teratogenicity and developmental neurotoxicity of specific toxicants. These findings lead to the hypothesis that maternal infection, obesity, and toxicant exposures (e.g. valproic acid, endocrine disrupting plasticizers, ethanol, and heavy metals) are all environmental risk factors for ASD that lead to fetal micronutrient deficiencies resulting from a maternal inflammatory response. It could be possible to use markers of inflammation and micronutrient status to identify women that would benefit from micronutrient supplementation or dietary interventions to reduce the risk of ASD. However, more research is needed to demonstrate a causal role of fetal micronutrient deficiencies and clarify the underlying mechanisms that contribute to ASD.

Dietary habits contributing to breast cancer risk among Iranian women.

PubMed

Mobarakeh, Zahra Sheikhi; Mirzaei, Khadijeh; Hatmi, Nadia; Ebrahimi, Mandana; Dabiran, Sohaila; Sotoudeh, Gity

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate demographic features, dietary habits, and some possible risk factors for being susceptible to breast cancer in Iranian women. A study of dietary habits and breast cancer was conducted among 53 Iranian women with histological confirmed disease and 40 matched controls. A dietary habits questionnaire was used to evaluate the pattern of selected food intakes. The risk of cancer was analyzed after adjustment for confounding factors. Age, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, educational status, parity, lactation, marital status, menopause, history of estrogen therapy, and family history of breast disease or cancer were assessed among participants. Special attention was given to the relationship between consumption of high fat meat, milk, yogurt and cheese as well use of frying oils for frying foods, use of olive/liquid oils for cooking, removing fat from meat and poultry, removing chicken skin and not use of mayonnaise as salad dressing and the risk of breast cancer. Moreover, salad, vegetable and fruit consumption, and eating outdoors owere investigated. Our results revealed significant lower education and higher BMI and waist circumference levels in patients with breast cancer. There was significantly increased breast cancer risk in overweight women in comparison with normal weight (OR=2.91, 95%CI 1.24 to 6.82). High intake of fat dairy products including milk and cheese was found to be a statistically significant factor for increasing breast cancer risk in models adjusting for age, BMI and education. Use of olive/liquid oils for cooking and avoidance of mayonnaise as salad dressing are related to lower risk of breast cancer. The frequency of vegetable and fruit consumption was significantly lower in patients with breast cancer compared to healthy women. Dietary habits might be risk factors for breast cancer among Iranian women. Adoption of a prudent diet could be an appropriate strategy for preventing breast

[Risk factors of cancer of the pancreas from analytic epidemiologic studies].

PubMed

Raymond, L; Bouchardy, C

1990-01-01

The main case control studies and over 30 cohort studies of pancreatic cancer, performed during the period 1973-1988 are reviewed. For each type of risk factor a table is given which summarizes the conclusions of the various studies. The multifactorial etiology of this cancer is reflected by the number of different exposures studied. In our opinion, the effects of tobacco are indisputable even though they have not been systematically described in all studies. Cigarette smoking is associated with two-fold increase in risk. The effect of different forms of smoking, such as filter utilization, pipe, colour of tobacco, etc. on the risk are unclear. The effect of alcohol is less important although this needs to be confirmed. Tobacco use was not controlled in many studies where a positive results was obtained for alcohol. The same confounding effect has perhaps biased the results of several studies carried out for coffee drinkers. While not definitively confirmed, the elevated risk associated with coffee drinking appears to be plausible. Results on other dietary factors have not been widely reported. However, a positive association has been found for consumption of meat and fat and a negative one for vegetables and fruits. In some cases, these results are amplified by a dose-response effect. Further nutritional studies are required in order to resolve this question. Previous medical conditions have also been considered, in particular diseases of the pancreas, i.e. diabetes mellitus and pancreatitis. The results are not consistent, as causes and effects are not easy to detect. However, positive results for diabetes mellitus are more convincing than those for other conditions. Potential effects of work-related exposure have been analysed by many researchers although no firm conclusions can be drawn upon review of those results. Among the suspected risks, one has to consider the chemical industry and industrial exposure in oil refinery, aluminium reduction, and coke

MS-Based Analytical Techniques: Advances in Spray-Based Methods and EI-LC-MS Applications

PubMed Central

Medina, Isabel; Cappiello, Achille; Careri, Maria

2018-01-01

Mass spectrometry is the most powerful technique for the detection and identification of organic compounds. It can provide molecular weight information and a wealth of structural details that give a unique fingerprint for each analyte. Due to these characteristics, mass spectrometry-based analytical methods are showing an increasing interest in the scientific community, especially in food safety, environmental, and forensic investigation areas where the simultaneous detection of targeted and nontargeted compounds represents a key factor. In addition, safety risks can be identified at the early stage through online and real-time analytical methodologies. In this context, several efforts have been made to achieve analytical instrumentation able to perform real-time analysis in the native environment of samples and to generate highly informative spectra. This review article provides a survey of some instrumental innovations and their applications with particular attention to spray-based MS methods and food analysis issues. The survey will attempt to cover the state of the art from 2012 up to 2017. PMID:29850370

An analytical fuzzy-based approach to ?-gain optimal control of input-affine nonlinear systems using Newton-type algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milic, Vladimir; Kasac, Josip; Novakovic, Branko

2015-10-01

This paper is concerned with ?-gain optimisation of input-affine nonlinear systems controlled by analytic fuzzy logic system. Unlike the conventional fuzzy-based strategies, the non-conventional analytic fuzzy control method does not require an explicit fuzzy rule base. As the first contribution of this paper, we prove, by using the Stone-Weierstrass theorem, that the proposed fuzzy system without rule base is universal approximator. The second contribution of this paper is an algorithm for solving a finite-horizon minimax problem for ?-gain optimisation. The proposed algorithm consists of recursive chain rule for first- and second-order derivatives, Newton's method, multi-step Adams method and automatic differentiation. Finally, the results of this paper are evaluated on a second-order nonlinear system.

Earthdata Cloud Analytics Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramachandran, Rahul; Lynnes, Chris

2018-01-01

This presentation describes a nascent project in NASA to develop a framework to support end-user analytics of NASA's Earth science data in the cloud. The chief benefit of migrating EOSDIS (Earth Observation System Data and Information Systems) data to the cloud is to position the data next to enormous computing capacity to allow end users to process data at scale. The Earthdata Cloud Analytics project will user a service-based approach to facilitate the infusion of evolving analytics technology and the integration with non-NASA analytics or other complementary functionality at other agencies and in other nations.

Do impression management and self-deception distort self-report measures with content of dynamic risk factors in offender samples? A meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Hildebrand, Martin; Wibbelink, Carlijn J M; Verschuere, Bruno

Self-report measures provide an important source of information in correctional/forensic settings, yet at the same time the validity of that information is often questioned because self-reports are thought to be highly vulnerable to self-presentation biases. Primary studies in offender samples have provided mixed results with regard to the impact of socially desirable responding on self-reports. The main aim of the current study was therefore to investigate-via a meta-analytic review of published studies-the association between the two dimensions of socially desirable responding, impression management and self-deceptive enhancement, and self-report measures with content of dynamic risk factors using the Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding (BIDR) in offender samples. These self-report measures were significantly and negatively related with self-deception (r = -0.120, p < 0.001; k = 170 effect sizes) and impression management (r = -0.158, p < 0.001; k = 157 effect sizes), yet there was evidence of publication bias for the impression management effect with the trim and fill method indicating that the relation is probably even smaller (r = -0.07). The magnitude of the effect sizes was small. Moderation analyses suggested that type of dynamic risk factor (e.g., antisocial cognition versus antisocial personality), incentives, and publication year affected the relationship between impression management and self-report measures with content of dynamic risk factors, whereas sample size, setting (e.g., incarcerated, community), and publication year influenced the relation between self-deception and these self-report measures. The results indicate that the use of self-report measures to assess dynamic risk factors in correctional/forensic settings is not inevitably compromised by socially desirable responding, yet caution is warranted for some risk factors (antisocial personality traits), particularly when incentives are at play. Copyright �

Semi-Analytical Models of CO2 Injection into Deep Saline Aquifers: Evaluation of the Area of Review and Leakage through Abandoned Wells

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will provide a conceptual preview of an Area of Review (AoR) tool being developed by EPA’s Office of Research and Development that applies analytic and semi-analytical mathematical solutions to elucidate potential risks associated with geologic sequestration of ...

Does vitamin D deficiency contribute to erectile dysfunction?

PubMed Central

Sorenson, Marc; Grant, William B.

2012-01-01

Erectile dysfunction (ED) is a multifactorial disease, and its causes can be neurogenic, psychogenic, hormonal and vascular. ED is often an important indicator of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and a powerful early marker for asymptomatic CVD. Erection is a vascular event, and ED is often a vascular disease caused by endothelial damage and subsequent inhibition of vasodilation. We show here that risk factors associated with a higher CVD risk also associate with a higher ED risk. Such factors include diabetes mellitus, hypertension, arterial calcification and Inflammation in the vascular endothelium. Vitamin D deficiency is one of several dynamics that associates with increased CVD risk, but to our knowledge, it has not been studied as a possible contributor to ED. Here we examine research linking ED and CVD and discuss how vitamin D influences CVD and its classic risk factors—factors that also associate to increased ED risk. We also summarize research indicating that vitamin D associates with reduced risk of several nonvascular contributing factors for ED. We conclude that VDD contributes to ED. This hypothesis should be tested through observational and intervention studies. PMID:22928068

Analytic strategies to evaluate the association of time-varying exposures to HIV-related outcomes: Alcohol consumption as an example.

PubMed

Cook, Robert L; Kelso, Natalie E; Brumback, Babette A; Chen, Xinguang

2016-01-01

As persons with HIV are living longer, there is a growing need to investigate factors associated with chronic disease, rate of disease progression and survivorship. Many risk factors for this high-risk population change over time, such as participation in treatment, alcohol consumption and drug abuse. Longitudinal datasets are increasingly available, particularly clinical data that contain multiple observations of health exposures and outcomes over time. Several analytic options are available for assessment of longitudinal data; however, it can be challenging to choose the appropriate analytic method for specific combinations of research questions and types of data. The purpose of this review is to help researchers choose the appropriate methods to analyze longitudinal data, using alcohol consumption as an example of a time-varying exposure variable. When selecting the optimal analytic method, one must consider aspects of exposure (e.g. timing, pattern, and amount) and outcome (fixed or time-varying), while also addressing minimizing bias. In this article, we will describe several analytic approaches for longitudinal data, including developmental trajectory analysis, generalized estimating equations, and mixed effect models. For each analytic strategy, we describe appropriate situations to use the method and provide an example that demonstrates the use of the method. Clinical data related to alcohol consumption and HIV are used to illustrate these methods.

Functional Analytic Psychotherapy (FAP) in Ibero-America: Review of Current Status and Some Proposals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Munoz-Martinez, Amanda; Novoa-Gomez, Monica; Gutierrez, Rochy Vargas

2012-01-01

Functional Analytic Psychotherapy (FAP) has been making an important rise in Ibero-America in recent years. This paper presents a review of different contributions, problems and some proposals. Three principal topics are reviewed: (a) general characteristics and theoretical bases of FAP, (b) the uses of FAP and its relationship with other…

Unequal Exposure or Unequal Vulnerability? Contributions of Neighborhood Conditions and Cardiovascular Risk Factors to Socioeconomic Inequality in Incident Cardiovascular Disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Hussein, Mustafa; Diez Roux, Ana V; Mujahid, Mahasin S; Hastert, Theresa A; Kershaw, Kiarri N; Bertoni, Alain G; Baylin, Ana

2017-11-23

Risk factors can drive socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) through differential exposure and differential vulnerability. We show how econometric decomposition directly enables simultaneous, policy-oriented assessment of these two mechanisms. We specifically estimated contributions via these mechanisms of neighborhood environment and proximal risk factors to socioeconomic inequality in CVD incidence. We followed 5,608 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2000-2012) until the first CVD event (median follow-up 12.2 years). We used a summary measure of baseline socioeconomic position (SEP). Covariates included baseline demographics, neighborhood, psychosocial, behavioral, and biomedical risk factors. Using Poisson models, we decomposed the difference (inequality) in incidence rates between low- and high-SEP groups into contributions of 1) differences in covariate means (differential exposure), and 2) differences in CVD risk associated with covariates (differential vulnerability). Notwithstanding large uncertainty in neighborhood estimates, our analysis suggests that differential exposure to poorer neighborhood socioeconomic conditions, adverse social environment, diabetes, and hypertension accounts for most of inequality. Psychosocial and behavioral contributions were negligible. Further, neighborhood SEP, female gender, and White race were more strongly associated with CVD among low-SEP (vs. high-SEP) participants. These differentials in vulnerability also accounted for nontrivial portions of the inequality, and could have important implications for intervention. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Developing a University Contribution to Teacher Education: Creating an Analytical Space for Learning Narratives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanley, Chris; Brown, Tony

2017-01-01

What might a distinct university contribution to teacher education look like? This paper tracks a group of prospective teachers making the transition from undergraduate to teacher on a one-year school-based postgraduate course. The study employs a practitioner research methodological framework where teacher learning is understood as a process of…

Comparison of clinical and analytical performance of the Abbott Realtime High Risk HPV test to the performance of hybrid capture 2 in population-based cervical cancer screening.

PubMed

Poljak, Mario; Ostrbenk, Anja; Seme, Katja; Ucakar, Veronika; Hillemanns, Peter; Bokal, Eda Vrtacnik; Jancar, Nina; Klavs, Irena

2011-05-01

The clinical performance of the Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV (human papillomavirus) test (RealTime) and that of the Hybrid Capture 2 HPV DNA test (hc2) were prospectively compared in the population-based cervical cancer screening setting. In women >30 years old (n = 3,129), the clinical sensitivity of RealTime for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 (CIN2) or worse (38 cases) and its clinical specificity for lesions of less than CIN2 (3,091 controls) were 100% and 93.3%, respectively, and those of hc2 were 97.4% and 91.8%, respectively. A noninferiority score test showed that the clinical specificity (P < 0.0001) and clinical sensitivity (P = 0.011) of RealTime were noninferior to those of hc2 at the recommended thresholds of 98% and 90%. In the total study population (women 20 to 64 years old; n = 4,432; 57 cases, 4,375 controls), the clinical sensitivity and specificity of RealTime were 98.2% and 89.5%, and those of hc2 were 94.7% and 87.7%, respectively. The analytical sensitivity and analytical specificity of RealTime in detecting targeted HPV types evaluated with the largest sample collection to date (4,479 samples) were 94.8% and 99.8%, and those of hc2 were 93.4% and 97.8%, respectively. Excellent analytical agreement between the two assays was obtained (kappa value, 0.84), while the analytical accuracy of RealTime was significantly higher than that of hc2. RealTime demonstrated high intralaboratory reproducibility and interlaboratory agreement with 500 samples retested 61 to 226 days after initial testing in two different laboratories. RealTime can be considered to be a reliable and robust HPV assay clinically comparable to hc2 for the detection of CIN2+ lesions in a population-based cervical cancer screening setting.

A dynamical systems model for nuclear power plant risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, Stephen Michael

The recent transition to an open access generation marketplace has forced nuclear plant operators to become much more cost conscious and focused on plant performance. Coincidentally, the regulatory perspective also is in a state of transition from a command and control framework to one that is risk-informed and performance-based. Due to these structural changes in the economics and regulatory system associated with commercial nuclear power plant operation, there is an increased need for plant management to explicitly manage nuclear safety risk. Application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to model plant hardware has provided a significant contribution to understanding the potential initiating events and equipment failures that can lead to core damage accidents. Application of the lessons learned from these analyses has supported improved plant operation and safety over the previous decade. However, this analytical approach has not been nearly as successful in addressing the impact of plant processes and management effectiveness on the risks of plant operation. Thus, the research described in this dissertation presents a different approach to address this issue. Here we propose a dynamical model that describes the interaction of important plant processes among themselves and their overall impact on nuclear safety risk. We first provide a review of the techniques that are applied in a conventional probabilistic risk assessment of commercially operating nuclear power plants and summarize the typical results obtained. The limitations of the conventional approach and the status of research previously performed to address these limitations also are presented. Next, we present the case for the application of an alternative approach using dynamical systems theory. This includes a discussion of previous applications of dynamical models to study other important socio-economic issues. Next, we review the analytical techniques that are applicable to analysis of

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

Measuring myokines with cardiovascular functions: pre-analytical variables affecting the analytical output.

PubMed

Lombardi, Giovanni; Sansoni, Veronica; Banfi, Giuseppe

2017-08-01

In the last few years, a growing number of molecules have been associated to an endocrine function of the skeletal muscle. Circulating myokine levels, in turn, have been associated with several pathophysiological conditions including the cardiovascular ones. However, data from different studies are often not completely comparable or even discordant. This would be due, at least in part, to the whole set of situations related to the preparation of the patient prior to blood sampling, blood sampling procedure, processing and/or store. This entire process constitutes the pre-analytical phase. The importance of the pre-analytical phase is often not considered. However, in routine diagnostics, the 70% of the errors are in this phase. Moreover, errors during the pre-analytical phase are carried over in the analytical phase and affects the final output. In research, for example, when samples are collected over a long time and by different laboratories, a standardized procedure for sample collecting and the correct procedure for sample storage are acknowledged. In this review, we discuss the pre-analytical variables potentially affecting the measurement of myokines with cardiovascular functions.

A strategy for prioritizing threats and recovery actions for at-risk species.

PubMed

Darst, Catherine R; Murphy, Philip J; Strout, Nathan W; Campbell, Steven P; Field, Kimberleigh J; Allison, Linda; Averill-Murray, Roy C

2013-03-01

Ensuring the persistence of at-risk species depends on implementing conservation actions that ameliorate threats. We developed and implemented a method to quantify the relative importance of threats and to prioritize recovery actions based on their potential to affect risk to Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii). We used assessments of threat importance and elasticities of demographic rates from population matrix models to estimate the relative contributions of threats to overall increase in risk to the population. We found that urbanization, human access, military operations, disease, and illegal use of off highway vehicles are the most serious threats to the desert tortoise range-wide. These results suggest that, overall, recovery actions that decrease habitat loss, predation, and crushing will be most effective for recovery; specifically, we found that habitat restoration, topic-specific environmental education, and land acquisition are most likely to result in the greatest decrease in risk to the desert tortoise across its range. In addition, we have developed an application that manages the conceptual model and all supporting information and calculates threat severity and potential effectiveness of recovery actions. Our analytical approach provides an objective process for quantifying threats, prioritizing recovery actions, and developing monitoring metrics for those actions for adaptive management of any at-risk species.

Moving standard deviation and moving sum of outliers as quality tools for monitoring analytical precision.

PubMed

Liu, Jiakai; Tan, Chin Hon; Badrick, Tony; Loh, Tze Ping

2018-02-01

An increase in analytical imprecision (expressed as CV a ) can introduce additional variability (i.e. noise) to the patient results, which poses a challenge to the optimal management of patients. Relatively little work has been done to address the need for continuous monitoring of analytical imprecision. Through numerical simulations, we describe the use of moving standard deviation (movSD) and a recently described moving sum of outlier (movSO) patient results as means for detecting increased analytical imprecision, and compare their performances against internal quality control (QC) and the average of normal (AoN) approaches. The power of detecting an increase in CV a is suboptimal under routine internal QC procedures. The AoN technique almost always had the highest average number of patient results affected before error detection (ANPed), indicating that it had generally the worst capability for detecting an increased CV a . On the other hand, the movSD and movSO approaches were able to detect an increased CV a at significantly lower ANPed, particularly for measurands that displayed a relatively small ratio of biological variation to CV a. CONCLUSION: The movSD and movSO approaches are effective in detecting an increase in CV a for high-risk measurands with small biological variation. Their performance is relatively poor when the biological variation is large. However, the clinical risks of an increase in analytical imprecision is attenuated for these measurands as an increased analytical imprecision will only add marginally to the total variation and less likely to impact on the clinical care. Copyright © 2017 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analyte discrimination from chemiresistor response kinetics.

PubMed

Read, Douglas H; Martin, James E

2010-08-15

Chemiresistors are polymer-based sensors that transduce the sorption of a volatile organic compound into a resistance change. Like other polymer-based gas sensors that function through sorption, chemiresistors can be selective for analytes on the basis of the affinity of the analyte for the polymer. However, a single sensor cannot, in and of itself, discriminate between analytes, since a small concentration of an analyte that has a high affinity for the polymer might give the same response as a high concentration of another analyte with a low affinity. In this paper we use a field-structured chemiresistor to demonstrate that its response kinetics can be used to discriminate between analytes, even between those that have identical chemical affinities for the polymer phase of the sensor. The response kinetics is shown to be independent of the analyte concentration, and thus the magnitude of the sensor response, but is found to vary inversely with the analyte's saturation vapor pressure. Saturation vapor pressures often vary greatly from analyte to analyte, so analysis of the response kinetics offers a powerful method for obtaining analyte discrimination from a single sensor.

Validating Analytical Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ember, Lois R.

1977-01-01

The procedures utilized by the Association of Official Analytical Chemists (AOAC) to develop, evaluate, and validate analytical methods for the analysis of chemical pollutants are detailed. Methods validated by AOAC are used by the EPA and FDA in their enforcement programs and are granted preferential treatment by the courts. (BT)

Quo vadis, analytical chemistry?

PubMed

Valcárcel, Miguel

2016-01-01

This paper presents an open, personal, fresh approach to the future of Analytical Chemistry in the context of the deep changes Science and Technology are anticipated to experience. Its main aim is to challenge young analytical chemists because the future of our scientific discipline is in their hands. A description of not completely accurate overall conceptions of our discipline, both past and present, to be avoided is followed by a flexible, integral definition of Analytical Chemistry and its cornerstones (viz., aims and objectives, quality trade-offs, the third basic analytical reference, the information hierarchy, social responsibility, independent research, transfer of knowledge and technology, interfaces to other scientific-technical disciplines, and well-oriented education). Obsolete paradigms, and more accurate general and specific that can be expected to provide the framework for our discipline in the coming years are described. Finally, the three possible responses of analytical chemists to the proposed changes in our discipline are discussed.

Analyte detection using an active assay

DOEpatents

Morozov, Victor; Bailey, Charles L.; Evanskey, Melissa R.

2010-11-02

Analytes using an active assay may be detected by introducing an analyte solution containing a plurality of analytes to a lacquered membrane. The lacquered membrane may be a membrane having at least one surface treated with a layer of polymers. The lacquered membrane may be semi-permeable to nonanalytes. The layer of polymers may include cross-linked polymers. A plurality of probe molecules may be arrayed and immobilized on the lacquered membrane. An external force may be applied to the analyte solution to move the analytes towards the lacquered membrane. Movement may cause some or all of the analytes to bind to the lacquered membrane. In cases where probe molecules are presented, some or all of the analytes may bind to probe molecules. The direction of the external force may be reversed to remove unbound or weakly bound analytes. Bound analytes may be detected using known detection types.

Analytical Chemistry in Russia.

PubMed

Zolotov, Yuri

2016-09-06

Research in Russian analytical chemistry (AC) is carried out on a significant scale, and the analytical service solves practical tasks of geological survey, environmental protection, medicine, industry, agriculture, etc. The education system trains highly skilled professionals in AC. The development and especially manufacturing of analytical instruments should be improved; in spite of this, there are several good domestic instruments and other satisfy some requirements. Russian AC has rather good historical roots.

Population-based familial aggregation of eosinophilic esophagitis suggests a genetic contribution.

PubMed

Allen-Brady, Kristina; Firszt, Rafael; Fang, John C; Wong, Jathine; Smith, Ken R; Peterson, Kathryn A

2017-10-01

Prior familial clustering studies have observed an increased risk of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) mostly among first-degree relatives, suggesting a genetic contribution to EoE, and twin studies have suggested a powerful contribution from environmental factors. This study sought to clarify the contribution of genetic factors to EoE through estimation of familial aggregation and risk of EoE in extended relatives. The Utah Population Database, a population-based genealogy resource linked to electronic medical records for health care systems across the state of Utah, was used to identify EoE cases and age, sex, and birthplace-matched controls at a 5:1 ratio. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of EoE among relatives of EoE probands compared with the odds of EoE among relatives of controls. There were 4,423 EoE cases and 24,322 controls. The population-attributable risk of EoE was 31% (95% CI, 28% to 34%), suggesting a relatively strong genetic contribution. Risks of EoE were significantly increased among first-degree relatives (odds ratio [OR], 7.19; 95% CI, 5.65-9.14), particularly first-degree relatives of EoE cases diagnosed <18 years of age (OR, 16.3; 95% CI, 9.4-28.3); second-degree relatives (OR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.49-2.65); and first cousins (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.03-1.77), providing evidence of a genetic contribution. However, spouses of EoE probands were observed to be at increased risk of EoE (OR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.31-6.25), suggesting either positive assortative mating or a shared environmental contribution to EoE. This study supports a significant genetic contribution to EoE as evidenced by increased risk of EoE in distant relatives. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Translational benchmark risk analysis

PubMed Central

Piegorsch, Walter W.

2010-01-01

Translational development – in the sense of translating a mature methodology from one area of application to another, evolving area – is discussed for the use of benchmark doses in quantitative risk assessment. Illustrations are presented with traditional applications of the benchmark paradigm in biology and toxicology, and also with risk endpoints that differ from traditional toxicological archetypes. It is seen that the benchmark approach can apply to a diverse spectrum of risk management settings. This suggests a promising future for this important risk-analytic tool. Extensions of the method to a wider variety of applications represent a significant opportunity for enhancing environmental, biomedical, industrial, and socio-economic risk assessments. PMID:20953283

Analytic solution to variance optimization with no short positions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondor, Imre; Papp, Gábor; Caccioli, Fabio

2017-12-01

We consider the variance portfolio optimization problem with a ban on short selling. We provide an analytical solution by means of the replica method for the case of a portfolio of independent, but not identically distributed, assets. We study the behavior of the solution as a function of the ratio r between the number N of assets and the length T of the time series of returns used to estimate risk. The no-short-selling constraint acts as an asymmetric \

B. F. Skinner's contributions to applied behavior analysis

PubMed Central

Morris, Edward K.; Smith, Nathaniel G.; Altus, Deborah E.

2005-01-01

Our paper reviews and analyzes B. F. Skinner's contributions to applied behavior analysis in order to assess his role as the field's originator and founder. We found, first, that his contributions fall into five categorizes: the style and content of his science, his interpretations of typical and atypical human behavior, the implications he drew from his science for application, his descriptions of possible applications, and his own applications to nonhuman and human behavior. Second, we found that he explicitly or implicitly addressed all seven dimensions of applied behavior analysis. These contributions and the dimensions notwithstanding, he neither incorporated the field's scientific (e.g., analytic) and social dimensions (e.g., applied) into any program of published research such that he was its originator, nor did he systematically integrate, advance, and promote the dimensions so to have been its founder. As the founder of behavior analysis, however, he was the father of applied behavior analysis. PMID:22478444

Historical perspective on risk assessment in the federal government.

PubMed

Graham, J D

1995-09-01

This article traces the evolution of risk assessment as an essential analytical tool in the federal government. In many programs and agencies, decisions cannot be made without the benefit of information from risk assessment. Although this analytical tool influences important public health and economic decisions, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the day-to-day practice of risk assessment. The article describes the sources of dissatisfaction that have been voiced by scientists, regulators, interest groups and ordinary citizens. Problems include the use of arbitrary exposure scenarios, the misuse of the 'carcinogen' label, the excessive reliance on animal cancer tests, the lack of formal uncertainty analysis the low priority assigned to noncancer endpoints, the poor communication of risk estimates and the neglect of inequities in the distribution of risk. Despite these limitations, the article argues that more danger rests in efforts to make decisions without any risk assessment. Recent Congressional and Administration interest in risk assessment is encouraging because it offers promise to learn from past mistakes and set in motion steps to enhance the risk assessment process.

Analytical calculation of vibrations of electromagnetic origin in electrical machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCloskey, Alex; Arrasate, Xabier; Hernández, Xabier; Gómez, Iratxo; Almandoz, Gaizka

2018-01-01

Electrical motors are widely used and are often required to satisfy comfort specifications. Thus, vibration response estimations are necessary to reach optimum machine designs. This work presents an improved analytical model to calculate vibration response of an electrical machine. The stator and windings are modelled as a double circular cylindrical shell. As the stator is a laminated structure, orthotropic properties are applied to it. The values of those material properties are calculated according to the characteristics of the motor and the known material properties taken from previous works. Therefore, the model proposed takes into account the axial direction, so that length is considered, and also the contribution of windings, which differs from one machine to another. These aspects make the model valuable for a wide range of electrical motor types. In order to validate the analytical calculation, natural frequencies are calculated and compared to those obtained by Finite Element Method (FEM), giving relative errors below 10% for several circumferential and axial mode order combinations. It is also validated the analytical vibration calculation with acceleration measurements in a real machine. The comparison shows good agreement for the proposed model, being the most important frequency components in the same magnitude order. A simplified two dimensional model is also applied and the results obtained are not so satisfactory.

A Requirements-Driven Optimization Method for Acoustic Liners Using Analytic Derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berton, Jeffrey J.; Lopes, Leonard V.

2017-01-01

More than ever, there is flexibility and freedom in acoustic liner design. Subject to practical considerations, liner design variables may be manipulated to achieve a target attenuation spectrum. But characteristics of the ideal attenuation spectrum can be difficult to know. Many multidisciplinary system effects govern how engine noise sources contribute to community noise. Given a hardwall fan noise source to be suppressed, and using an analytical certification noise model to compute a community noise measure of merit, the optimal attenuation spectrum can be derived using multidisciplinary systems analysis methods. In a previous paper on this subject, a method deriving the ideal target attenuation spectrum that minimizes noise perceived by observers on the ground was described. A simple code-wrapping approach was used to evaluate a community noise objective function for an external optimizer. Gradients were evaluated using a finite difference formula. The subject of this paper is an application of analytic derivatives that supply precise gradients to an optimization process. Analytic derivatives improve the efficiency and accuracy of gradient-based optimization methods and allow consideration of more design variables. In addition, the benefit of variable impedance liners is explored using a multi-objective optimization.

Green analytical chemistry--theory and practice.

PubMed

Tobiszewski, Marek; Mechlińska, Agata; Namieśnik, Jacek

2010-08-01

This tutorial review summarises the current state of green analytical chemistry with special emphasis on environmentally friendly sample preparation techniques. Green analytical chemistry is a part of the sustainable development concept; its history and origins are described. Miniaturisation of analytical devices and shortening the time elapsing between performing analysis and obtaining reliable analytical results are important aspects of green analytical chemistry. Solventless extraction techniques, the application of alternative solvents and assisted extractions are considered to be the main approaches complying with green analytical chemistry principles.

A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Bo Lu; Ronald Fournier; Gericke Cook; Jean J. Turgeon

2017-01-01

Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical...

Sensemaking, stakeholder discord, and long-term risk communication at a US Superfund site.

PubMed

Hoover, Anna Goodman

2017-03-01

Risk communication can help reduce exposures to environmental contaminants, mitigate negative health outcomes, and inform community-based decisions about hazardous waste sites. While communication best practices have long guided such efforts, little research has examined unintended consequences arising from such guidelines. As rhetoric informs stakeholder sensemaking, the language used in and reinforced by these guidelines can challenge relationships and exacerbate stakeholder tensions. This study evaluates risk communication at a U.S. Superfund site to identify unintended consequences arising from current risk communication practices. This qualitative case study crystallizes data spanning 6 years from three sources: 1) local newspaper coverage of site-related topics; 2) focus-group transcripts from a multi-year project designed to support future visioning of site use; and 3) published blog entries authored by a local environmental activist. Constant comparative analysis provides the study's analytic foundation, with qualitative data analysis software QSR NVivo 8 supporting a three-step process: 1) provisional coding to identify broad topic categories within datasets, 2) coding occurrences of sensemaking constructs and emergent intra-dataset patterns, and 3) grouping related codes across datasets to examine the relationships among them. Existing risk communication practices at this Superfund site contribute to a dichotomous conceptualization of multiple and diverse stakeholders as members of one of only two categories: the government or the public. This conceptualization minimizes perceptions of capacity, encourages public commitment to stances aligned with a preferred group, and contributes to negative expectations that can become self-fulfilling prophecies. Findings indicate a need to re-examine and adapt risk communication guidelines to encourage more pluralistic understanding of the stakeholder landscape.

Limitless Analytic Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strack, O. D. L.

2018-02-01

We present equations for new limitless analytic line elements. These elements possess a virtually unlimited number of degrees of freedom. We apply these new limitless analytic elements to head-specified boundaries and to problems with inhomogeneities in hydraulic conductivity. Applications of these new analytic elements to practical problems involving head-specified boundaries require the solution of a very large number of equations. To make the new elements useful in practice, an efficient iterative scheme is required. We present an improved version of the scheme presented by Bandilla et al. (2007), based on the application of Cauchy integrals. The limitless analytic elements are useful when modeling strings of elements, rivers for example, where local conditions are difficult to model, e.g., when a well is close to a river. The solution of such problems is facilitated by increasing the order of the elements to obtain a good solution. This makes it unnecessary to resort to dividing the element in question into many smaller elements to obtain a satisfactory solution.

45 CFR 153.405 - Calculation of reinsurance contributions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Calculation of reinsurance contributions. 153.405 Section 153.405 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE...

45 CFR 153.405 - Calculation of reinsurance contributions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Calculation of reinsurance contributions. 153.405 Section 153.405 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE...

Health related guide values for drinking-water since 1993 as guidance to assess presence of new analytes in drinking-water.

PubMed

Dieter, Hermann H

2014-03-01

Regulatory toxicologists, when going into assessment of a new analyte in drinking-water, very often miss the occasion to revert to scientifically consensual virtually safe lifetime exposure reference doses and corresponding health-related guide values (HRGV) for drinking-water, be those derived either to avoid concern over "threshold effects" or concern over exceedance of an unacceptable non-threshold cancer risk level. They then need a more restrictive precautionary yet science-compatible approach to directly avoid concern over the presence (measured concentration) of a new analyte in drinking-water. Therefore, the German Environment Agency (UBA, Umweltbundesamt) decided in 2003 to extrapolate international toxicological expertise collected since 1993 from assessing "old" analytes in drinking-water on new ones in form of five HRIV=health related indication values. They indicate the reasonable lowest maximal concentration from which on tiered or stepwise human toxicological evaluation of a new analyte might be necessary and meaningful. Their regulatory-toxicological function is that of placeholders as long as a possibly higher scientific HRGV or a surrogate value based on a threshold of toxicological concern (TTC) was not broadly agreed by science. The five-step HRIV scale between 0.01 and 3.0 μg/l combines international toxicological experience gained from "old" analytes since 1993 with the concepts of safety factors (SF(D)) to assess database deficiency and science-related extrapolation factors (EF) to extrapolate experimental data on humans. Each HRIV is valid and safe for a 2 l/day drinking-water exposure scenario either counting for 10% relative source contribution (compounds with threshold effects) or for a lifetime non-threshold cancer risk of up to 10(-6) and is the higher the more positive information exists regarding possible effects at critical toxic endpoints and for length of possible exposure. Past (historical) and present evaluations of "old

The contribution from psychological, social, and organizational work factors to risk of disability retirement: a systematic review with meta-analyses.

PubMed

Knardahl, Stein; Johannessen, Håkon A; Sterud, Tom; Härmä, Mikko; Rugulies, Reiner; Seitsamo, Jorma; Borg, Vilhelm

2017-02-08

Previous studies indicate that psychological, social, and organizational factors at work contribute to health, motivation, absence from work, and functional ability. The objective of the study was to assess the current state of knowledge of the contribution of psychological, social, and organizational factors to disability retirement by a systematic review and meta-analyses. Data sources: A systematic literature search for studies of retirement due to disability in Medline, Embase, and PsychINFO was performed. Reference lists of relevant articles were hand-searched for additional studies. Internal validity was assessed independently by two referees with a detailed checklist for sources of bias. Conclusions were drawn based on studies with acceptable quality. We calculated combined effect estimates by means of averaged associations (Risk ratios) across samples, weighting observed associations by the study's sample size. Thirty-nine studies of accepted quality were found, 37 of which from the Nordic countries. There was moderate evidence for the role of low control (supported by weighted average RR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.21-1.61) and moderate evidence for the combination of high demands and low control (although weighted average was RR = 1.45; 95% CI = 0.96-2.19) as predictors of disability retirement. There were no major systematic differences in findings between the highest rated and the lowest rated studies that passed the criterion for adequate quality. There was limited evidence for downsizing, organizational change, lack of employee development and supplementary training, repetitive work tasks, effort-reward imbalance to increase risk of disability pension. Very limited evidence was found for job demands, evening or night work, and low social support from ones superior. Psychological and organizational factors at work contribute to disability retirement with the most robust evidence for the role of work control. We recommend the measurement of

Study of biomechanical overload in urban gardeners of Barcelona: application of analytical models for risk exposure evaluation in annual working cycle.

PubMed

Alvarez-Casado, Enrique; Hernandez-Soto, Aquiles; Tello, Sandoval; Gual, Rosa

2012-01-01

Occupational musculoskeletal disorders in the upper limbs and its consequences on the impact and prevalence in the work force are subject of many investigations in almost all the production fields. However, the exposure to this kind of risk factor on urban gardeners has not been well studied so far. The kind of plant varieties used in the parks, the tools that they use, as much as the necessary actions for the maintenance of the park, have an impact on the biomechanical overload of the upper limbs. Additionally, the analysis of the exposure to the biomechanical overload on upper limbs in gardening work is a complex task, mainly because it is an activity highly variable and of annual cycle. For this reason an analytical model for risk exposure evaluation is necessary. During this research the work activity of 29 gardeners in 3 urban parks of Barcelona has been analyzed. Each park has a specific acting plan, in relation with the quantity and the typology of vegetal species, its classification and the season of the year. Work and observation and video recording sessions on-site were conducted. The video-graphic registration was done on workers without any prior musculoskeletal disorder and with a minimum labour experience of 5 years. Moreover, the analysis of saturation time, considered as the relation of the repetitive working hours in reference with the hours of effective work was done. Using the registered tasks on video, the biomechanical overload on upper limbs applying the OCRA Checklist method was analyzed. A methodological procedure to analyze the risk exposure in annual working cycle has been proposed. The results that we got allow us to get information that can help in the assignment of the tasks and in the training of staff, as well as in the recommendations of the urban landscape's design. All these aspects have the goal to decrease the risk to develop work-related musculoskeletal disorders.

A new concept of pencil beam dose calculation for 40-200 keV photons using analytical dose kernels.

PubMed

Bartzsch, Stefan; Oelfke, Uwe

2013-11-01

The advent of widespread kV-cone beam computer tomography in image guided radiation therapy and special therapeutic application of keV photons, e.g., in microbeam radiation therapy (MRT) require accurate and fast dose calculations for photon beams with energies between 40 and 200 keV. Multiple photon scattering originating from Compton scattering and the strong dependence of the photoelectric cross section on the atomic number of the interacting tissue render these dose calculations by far more challenging than the ones established for corresponding MeV beams. That is why so far developed analytical models of kV photon dose calculations fail to provide the required accuracy and one has to rely on time consuming Monte Carlo simulation techniques. In this paper, the authors introduce a novel analytical approach for kV photon dose calculations with an accuracy that is almost comparable to the one of Monte Carlo simulations. First, analytical point dose and pencil beam kernels are derived for homogeneous media and compared to Monte Carlo simulations performed with the Geant4 toolkit. The dose contributions are systematically separated into contributions from the relevant orders of multiple photon scattering. Moreover, approximate scaling laws for the extension of the algorithm to inhomogeneous media are derived. The comparison of the analytically derived dose kernels in water showed an excellent agreement with the Monte Carlo method. Calculated values deviate less than 5% from Monte Carlo derived dose values, for doses above 1% of the maximum dose. The analytical structure of the kernels allows adaption to arbitrary materials and photon spectra in the given energy range of 40-200 keV. The presented analytical methods can be employed in a fast treatment planning system for MRT. In convolution based algorithms dose calculation times can be reduced to a few minutes.

Contemporary sample stacking in analytical electrophoresis.

PubMed

Malá, Zdena; Gebauer, Petr; Boček, Petr

2011-01-01

Sample stacking is of vital importance for analytical CE since it may bring the required sensitivity of analyses. A lot of new relevant papers are published every year and regular surveys seem to be very helpful for experts and practitioners. The contribution presented here is a continuation of a series of regularly published reviews on the topic and covers the last two years. It brings a survey of related literature organized, in accord with the main principle used in the procedure published, in the following mainstream sections: Kohlrausch adjustment of concentrations, pH step, micellar systems and combined techniques. Each part covers literature sorted according to the field of application as, e.g. clinical, pharmaceutical, food, environmental, etc. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Properties of Traffic Risk Coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Shang, Hua-Yan; Xue, Yu

2009-10-01

We use the model with the consideration of the traffic interruption probability (Physica A 387(2008)6845) to study the relationship between the traffic risk coefficient and the traffic interruption probability. The analytical and numerical results show that the traffic interruption probability will reduce the traffic risk coefficient and that the reduction is related to the density, which shows that this model can improve traffic security.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Big Data and Predictive Analytics: Applications in the Care of Children.

PubMed

Suresh, Srinivasan

2016-04-01

Emerging changes in the United States' healthcare delivery model have led to renewed interest in data-driven methods for managing quality of care. Analytics (Data plus Information) plays a key role in predictive risk assessment, clinical decision support, and various patient throughput measures. This article reviews the application of a pediatric risk score, which is integrated into our hospital's electronic medical record, and provides an early warning sign for clinical deterioration. Dashboards that are a part of disease management systems, are a vital tool in peer benchmarking, and can help in reducing unnecessary variations in care. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Behavioral Inhibition and Risk for Developing Social Anxiety Disorder: A Meta-Analytic Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clauss, Jacqueline A.; Blackford, Jennifer Urbano

2012-01-01

Objective: Behavioral inhibition (BI) has been associated with increased risk for developing social anxiety disorder (SAD); however, the degree of risk associated with BI has yet to be systematically examined and quantified. The goal of the present study was to quantify the association between childhood BI and risk for developing SAD. Method: A…

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

PubMed

Haimes, Yacov Y

2018-01-01

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Analytical solutions to dissolved contaminant plume evolution with source depletion during carbon dioxide storage.

PubMed

Yang, Yong; Liu, Yongzhong; Yu, Bo; Ding, Tian

2016-06-01

Volatile contaminants may migrate with carbon dioxide (CO2) injection or leakage in subsurface formations, which leads to the risk of the CO2 storage and the ecological environment. This study aims to develop an analytical model that could predict the contaminant migration process induced by CO2 storage. The analytical model with two moving boundaries is obtained through the simplification of the fully coupled model for the CO2-aqueous phase -stagnant phase displacement system. The analytical solutions are confirmed and assessed through the comparison with the numerical simulations of the fully coupled model. Then, some key variables in the analytical solutions, including the critical time, the locations of the dual moving boundaries and the advance velocity, are discussed to present the characteristics of contaminant migration in the multi-phase displacement system. The results show that these key variables are determined by four dimensionless numbers, Pe, RD, Sh and RF, which represent the effects of the convection, the dispersion, the interphase mass transfer and the retention factor of contaminant, respectively. The proposed analytical solutions could be used for tracking the migration of the injected CO2 and the contaminants in subsurface formations, and also provide an analytical tool for other solute transport in multi-phase displacement system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

USGS Blind Sample Project: monitoring and evaluating laboratory analytical quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ludtke, Amy S.; Woodworth, Mark T.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collects and disseminates information about the Nation's water resources. Surface- and ground-water samples are collected and sent to USGS laboratories for chemical analyses. The laboratories identify and quantify the constituents in the water samples. Random and systematic errors occur during sample handling, chemical analysis, and data processing. Although all errors cannot be eliminated from measurements, the magnitude of their uncertainty can be estimated and tracked over time. Since 1981, the USGS has operated an independent, external, quality-assurance project called the Blind Sample Project (BSP). The purpose of the BSP is to monitor and evaluate the quality of laboratory analytical results through the use of double-blind quality-control (QC) samples. The information provided by the BSP assists the laboratories in detecting and correcting problems in the analytical procedures. The information also can aid laboratory users in estimating the extent that laboratory errors contribute to the overall errors in their environmental data.

Analytic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models with input correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yueying; Wang, Qiuping A.; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

2018-03-01

Probabilistic uncertainty analysis is a common means of evaluating mathematical models. In mathematical modeling, the uncertainty in input variables is specified through distribution laws. Its contribution to the uncertainty in model response is usually analyzed by assuming that input variables are independent of each other. However, correlated parameters are often happened in practical applications. In the present paper, an analytic method is built for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models in the presence of input correlations. With the method, it is straightforward to identify the importance of the independence and correlations of input variables in determining the model response. This allows one to decide whether or not the input correlations should be considered in practice. Numerical examples suggest the effectiveness and validation of our analytic method in the analysis of general models. A practical application of the method is also proposed to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a deterministic HIV model.

Analytical Model of Large Data Transactions in CoAP Networks

PubMed Central

Ludovici, Alessandro; Di Marco, Piergiuseppe; Calveras, Anna; Johansson, Karl H.

2014-01-01

We propose a novel analytical model to study fragmentation methods in wireless sensor networks adopting the Constrained Application Protocol (CoAP) and the IEEE 802.15.4 standard for medium access control (MAC). The blockwise transfer technique proposed in CoAP and the 6LoWPAN fragmentation are included in the analysis. The two techniques are compared in terms of reliability and delay, depending on the traffic, the number of nodes and the parameters of the IEEE 802.15.4 MAC. The results are validated trough Monte Carlo simulations. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study that evaluates and compares analytically the performance of CoAP blockwise transfer and 6LoWPAN fragmentation. A major contribution is the possibility to understand the behavior of both techniques with different network conditions. Our results show that 6LoWPAN fragmentation is preferable for delay-constrained applications. For highly congested networks, the blockwise transfer slightly outperforms 6LoWPAN fragmentation in terms of reliability. PMID:25153143

Reflection on the Analytic Geometry Courses: The Geogebra Software and Its Effect on Creative Thinking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yildiz, Avni; Baltaci, Serdal; Demir, Betül Küçük

2017-01-01

Creativity has a significant role in individuals' lives. This research aims to examine the reflection of the learning process of analytic geometry concepts through GeoGebra software and its effect upon the development of preservice mathematics teachers' creative thinking skills. This effect is expected to make a significant contribution to the…

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY OF ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Within the scope of a number of emerging contaminant issues in environmental analysis, one area that has received a great deal of public interest has been the assessment of the role of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) as stressors and agents of change in ecosystems as well as their role in unplanned human exposure. The relationship between personal actions and the occurrence of PPCPs in the environment is clear-cut and comprehensible to the public. In this overview, we attempt to examine the separations aspect of the analytical approach to the vast array of potential analytes among this class of compounds. We also highlight the relationship between these compounds and endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) and between PPCPs and EDCs and the more traditional environmental analytes such as the persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Although the spectrum of chemical behavior extends from hydrophobic to hydrophilic, the current focus has shifted to moderately and highly polar analytes. Thus, emphasis on HPLC and LC/MS has grown and MS/MS has become a detection technique of choice with either electrospray ionization or atmospheric pressure chemical ionization. This contrasts markedly with the bench mark approach of capillary GC, GC/MS and electron ionization in traditional environmental analysis. The expansion of the analyte list has fostered new vigor in the development of environmental analytical chemistry, modernized the range of tools appli

Award for Distinguished Contributions to Research in Public Policy: Charlotte J. Patterson

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Psychologist, 2009

2009-01-01

Charlotte J. Patterson, winner of the Award for Distinguished Contributions to Research in Public Policy, is cited as the world's expert on psychological research on children and youths raised by lesbian and gay parents. Her early analytic syntheses of the literature on the subject greatly influenced other researchers in child and family…

Collaborative Visual Analytics: A Health Analytics Approach to Injury Prevention

PubMed Central

Fisher, Brian; Smith, Jennifer; Pike, Ian

2017-01-01

Background: Accurate understanding of complex health data is critical in order to deal with wicked health problems and make timely decisions. Wicked problems refer to ill-structured and dynamic problems that combine multidimensional elements, which often preclude the conventional problem solving approach. This pilot study introduces visual analytics (VA) methods to multi-stakeholder decision-making sessions about child injury prevention; Methods: Inspired by the Delphi method, we introduced a novel methodology—group analytics (GA). GA was pilot-tested to evaluate the impact of collaborative visual analytics on facilitating problem solving and supporting decision-making. We conducted two GA sessions. Collected data included stakeholders’ observations, audio and video recordings, questionnaires, and follow up interviews. The GA sessions were analyzed using the Joint Activity Theory protocol analysis methods; Results: The GA methodology triggered the emergence of ‘common ground’ among stakeholders. This common ground evolved throughout the sessions to enhance stakeholders’ verbal and non-verbal communication, as well as coordination of joint activities and ultimately collaboration on problem solving and decision-making; Conclusions: Understanding complex health data is necessary for informed decisions. Equally important, in this case, is the use of the group analytics methodology to achieve ‘common ground’ among diverse stakeholders about health data and their implications. PMID:28895928

Collaborative Visual Analytics: A Health Analytics Approach to Injury Prevention.

PubMed

Al-Hajj, Samar; Fisher, Brian; Smith, Jennifer; Pike, Ian

2017-09-12

Background : Accurate understanding of complex health data is critical in order to deal with wicked health problems and make timely decisions. Wicked problems refer to ill-structured and dynamic problems that combine multidimensional elements, which often preclude the conventional problem solving approach. This pilot study introduces visual analytics (VA) methods to multi-stakeholder decision-making sessions about child injury prevention; Methods : Inspired by the Delphi method, we introduced a novel methodology-group analytics (GA). GA was pilot-tested to evaluate the impact of collaborative visual analytics on facilitating problem solving and supporting decision-making. We conducted two GA sessions. Collected data included stakeholders' observations, audio and video recordings, questionnaires, and follow up interviews. The GA sessions were analyzed using the Joint Activity Theory protocol analysis methods; Results : The GA methodology triggered the emergence of ' common g round ' among stakeholders. This common ground evolved throughout the sessions to enhance stakeholders' verbal and non-verbal communication, as well as coordination of joint activities and ultimately collaboration on problem solving and decision-making; Conclusion s : Understanding complex health data is necessary for informed decisions. Equally important, in this case, is the use of the group analytics methodology to achieve ' common ground' among diverse stakeholders about health data and their implications.

Clarivate Analytics: Continued Omnia vanitas Impact Factor Culture.

PubMed

Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A; Bernès, Sylvain

2018-02-01

This opinion paper takes aim at an error made recently by Clarivate Analytics in which it sent out an email that congratulated academics for becoming exclusive members of academia's most cited elite, the Highly Cited Researchers (HCRs). However, that email was sent out to an undisclosed number of non-HCRs, who were offered an apology shortly after, through a bulk mail, which tried to down-play the importance of the error, all the while praising the true HCRs. When Clarivate Analytics senior management was contacted, the company declined to offer an indication of the number of academics who had been contacted and erroneously awarded the HCR status. We believe that this regrettable blunder, together with the opacity offered by the company, fortify the corporate attitude about the value of the journal impact factor (JIF), and what it represents, namely a marketing tool that is falsely used to equate citations with quality, worth, or influence. The continued commercialization of metrics such as the JIF is at the heart of their use to assess the "quality" of a researcher, their work, or a journal, and contributes to a great extent to driving scientific activities towards a futile endeavor.

Nanomaterials in consumer products: a challenging analytical problem.

PubMed

Contado, Catia

2015-01-01

Many products used in everyday life are made with the assistance of nanotechnologies. Cosmetic, pharmaceuticals, sunscreen, powdered food are only few examples of end products containing nano-sized particles (NPs), generally added to improve the product quality. To evaluate correctly benefits vs. risks of engineered nanomaterials and consequently to legislate in favor of consumer's protection, it is necessary to know the hazards connected with the exposure levels. This information implies transversal studies and a number of different competences. On analytical point of view the identification, quantification and characterization of NPs in food matrices and in cosmetic or personal care products pose significant challenges, because NPs are usually present at low concentration levels and the matrices, in which they are dispersed, are complexes and often incompatible with analytical instruments that would be required for their detection and characterization. This paper focused on some analytical techniques suitable for the detection, characterization and quantification of NPs in food and cosmetics products, reports their recent application in characterizing specific metal and metal-oxide NPs in these two important industrial and market sectors. The need of a characterization of the NPs as much as possible complete, matching complementary information about different metrics, possible achieved through validate procedures, is what clearly emerges from this research. More work should be done to produce standardized materials and to set-up methodologies to determine number-based size distributions and to get quantitative date about the NPs in such a complex matrices.

Nanomaterials in consumer products: a challenging analytical problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contado, Catia

2015-08-01

Many products used in everyday life are made with the assistance of nanotechnologies. Cosmetic, pharmaceuticals, sunscreen, powdered food are only few examples of end products containing nano-sized particles (NPs), generally added to improve the product quality. To evaluate correctly benefits versus risks of engineered nanomaterials and consequently to legislate in favor of consumer’s protection, it is necessary to know the hazards connected with the exposure levels. This information implies transversal studies and a number of different competences. On analytical point of view the identification, quantification and characterization of NPs in food matrices and in cosmetic or personal care products pose significant challenges, because NPs are usually present at low concentration levels and the matrices, in which they are dispersed, are complexes and often incompatible with analytical instruments that would be required for their detection and characterization. This paper focused on some analytical techniques suitable for the detection, characterization and quantification of NPs in food and cosmetics products, reports their recent application in characterizing specific metal and metal-oxide NPs in these two important industrial and market sectors. The need of a characterization of the NPs as much as possible complete, matching complementary information about different metrics, possible achieved through validate procedures, is what clearly emerges from this research. More work should be done to produce standardized materials and to set-up methodologies to determine number-based size distributions and to get quantitative date about the NPs in such a complex matrices.

Nanomaterials in consumer products: a challenging analytical problem

PubMed Central

Contado, Catia

2015-01-01

Many products used in everyday life are made with the assistance of nanotechnologies. Cosmetic, pharmaceuticals, sunscreen, powdered food are only few examples of end products containing nano-sized particles (NPs), generally added to improve the product quality. To evaluate correctly benefits vs. risks of engineered nanomaterials and consequently to legislate in favor of consumer's protection, it is necessary to know the hazards connected with the exposure levels. This information implies transversal studies and a number of different competences. On analytical point of view the identification, quantification and characterization of NPs in food matrices and in cosmetic or personal care products pose significant challenges, because NPs are usually present at low concentration levels and the matrices, in which they are dispersed, are complexes and often incompatible with analytical instruments that would be required for their detection and characterization. This paper focused on some analytical techniques suitable for the detection, characterization and quantification of NPs in food and cosmetics products, reports their recent application in characterizing specific metal and metal-oxide NPs in these two important industrial and market sectors. The need of a characterization of the NPs as much as possible complete, matching complementary information about different metrics, possible achieved through validate procedures, is what clearly emerges from this research. More work should be done to produce standardized materials and to set-up methodologies to determine number-based size distributions and to get quantitative date about the NPs in such a complex matrices. PMID:26301216

Mapping the Risk of Anaemia in Preschool-Age Children: The Contribution of Malnutrition, Malaria, and Helminth Infections in West Africa

PubMed Central

Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J.; Clements, Archie C. A.

2011-01-01

study countries. Conclusions By mapping the distribution of anaemia risk in preschool children adjusted for malnutrition and parasitic infections, we provide a means to identify the geographical limits of anaemia burden and the contribution that malnutrition and parasites make to anaemia. Spatial targeting of ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of other anaemia causes, such as malaria and helminth infection, can contribute to efficiently reducing the burden of anaemia in preschool children in Africa. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21687688

Learning Analytics: Readiness and Rewards

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friesen, Norm

2013-01-01

This position paper introduces the relatively new field of learning analytics, first by considering the relevant meanings of both "learning" and "analytics," and then by looking at two main levels at which learning analytics can be or has been implemented in educational organizations. Although integrated turnkey systems or…

The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

2013-12-01

The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution

Pre-analytical and analytical factors influencing Alzheimer's disease cerebrospinal fluid biomarker variability.

PubMed

Fourier, Anthony; Portelius, Erik; Zetterberg, Henrik; Blennow, Kaj; Quadrio, Isabelle; Perret-Liaudet, Armand

2015-09-20

A panel of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers including total Tau (t-Tau), phosphorylated Tau protein at residue 181 (p-Tau) and β-amyloid peptides (Aβ42 and Aβ40), is frequently used as an aid in Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis for young patients with cognitive impairment, for predicting prodromal AD in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects, for AD discrimination in atypical clinical phenotypes and for inclusion/exclusion and stratification of patients in clinical trials. Due to variability in absolute levels between laboratories, there is no consensus on medical cut-off value for the CSF AD signature. Thus, for full implementation of this core AD biomarker panel in clinical routine, this issue has to be solved. Variability can be explained both by pre-analytical and analytical factors. For example, the plastic tubes used for CSF collection and storage, the lack of reference material and the variability of the analytical protocols were identified as important sources of variability. The aim of this review is to highlight these pre-analytical and analytical factors and describe efforts done to counteract them in order to establish cut-off values for core CSF AD biomarkers. This review will give the current state of recommendations. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Children’s Experiences of Maternal Incarceration-Specific Risks: Predictions to Psychological Maladaptation

PubMed Central

Dallaire, Danielle H.; Zeman, Janice L.; Thrash, Todd M.

2014-01-01

Children of incarcerated mothers are at increased risk for social and emotional difficulties, yet few studies have investigated potential mechanisms of risk within this population. This research simultaneously examined the association of children’s experience of incarceration-specific risk factors (e.g., witness mother’s arrest) and environmental risks (e.g., low educational attainment) to children’s psychological maladaptation using a multi-informant design and a latent variable analytic approach. Participants were 117 currently incarcerated mothers (64.1% African American), their 151 children (53.6% boys, M age =9.8 years, range =6–12 years, 61.7% African American), and the 118 caregivers (74.8% female, 61.9% grandparents, 62.2% African American) of the children. Mothers, children, and caregivers each provided accounts of children’s experiences related to maternal incarceration and children’s internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. Mothers and caregivers each supplied information about 10 environmental risk factors. Findings from structural equation modeling indicate that children’s incarceration-specific risk experiences predict internalizing and externalizing behavior problems whereas the influence of environmental risks was negligible. Follow-up analyses examining the contribution of specific risks indicate that significant predictors differ by reporter and separate into effects of family incarceration history and direct experiences of maternal incarceration. Incarceration-specific experiences place children at higher risk for maladjustment than exposure to general environmental risk factors. These findings indicate the need to critically examine children’s exposure to experiences related to maternal incarceration and family incarceration history to help to clarify the multifaceted stressor of maternal incarceration. PMID:24871820

Heterogeneous postsurgical data analytics for predictive modeling of mortality risks in intensive care units.

PubMed

Yun Chen; Hui Yang

2014-01-01

The rapid advancements of biomedical instrumentation and healthcare technology have resulted in data-rich environments in hospitals. However, the meaningful information extracted from rich datasets is limited. There is a dire need to go beyond current medical practices, and develop data-driven methods and tools that will enable and help (i) the handling of big data, (ii) the extraction of data-driven knowledge, (iii) the exploitation of acquired knowledge for optimizing clinical decisions. This present study focuses on the prediction of mortality rates in Intensive Care Units (ICU) using patient-specific healthcare recordings. It is worth mentioning that postsurgical monitoring in ICU leads to massive datasets with unique properties, e.g., variable heterogeneity, patient heterogeneity, and time asyncronization. To cope with the challenges in ICU datasets, we developed the postsurgical decision support system with a series of analytical tools, including data categorization, data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and predictive modeling. Experimental results show that the proposed data-driven methodology outperforms traditional approaches and yields better results based on the evaluation of real-world ICU data from 4000 subjects in the database. This research shows great potentials for the use of data-driven analytics to improve the quality of healthcare services.

Analytical Challenges in Biotechnology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glajch, Joseph L.

1986-01-01

Highlights five major analytical areas (electrophoresis, immunoassay, chromatographic separations, protein and DNA sequencing, and molecular structures determination) and discusses how analytical chemistry could further improve these techniques and thereby have a major impact on biotechnology. (JN)

A Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A.; Egeghy, Peter P.; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A.

2013-01-01

The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical’s life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

Assessment of environmental risk for red mud storage facility in China: a case study in Shandong Province.

PubMed

Wen, Zhi-Chao; Ma, Shu-Hua; Zheng, Shi-Li; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Yan

2016-06-01

Red mud storage facility (RM-SF) pollution remains a serious problem in China mainly due to the RM's huge quantity, little recyclability, and high alkalinity. And, there is also a risk of dam failure because almost all RM-SFs are processed by damming. In order to address this challenge and improve the level of risk management, it is necessary to evaluate the environmental risk of RM-SFs systematically. So, this paper firstly designs a comprehensive evaluation index system with a three-level evaluation index in the terms of RM characteristics, RM-SF characteristics, ambient environment of RM-SF, the management of RM-SF, and the application aspect of RM by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Then, a case of RM-SF from a typical alumina production enterprise is studied according to this system, as is assisted by several experts from different fields when determining the weights of all indicators. The results show that the risk of selected RM-SF primarily depends on the former factors, that is, RM and RM-SF characteristics, while the contributions of the other factors are quite smaller.

Sensemaking, Stakeholder Discord, and Long-Term Risk Communication at a U.S. Superfund Site

PubMed Central

Hoover, Anna Goodman

2018-01-01

Introduction Risk communication can help reduce exposures to environmental contaminants, mitigate negative health outcomes, and inform community-based decisions about hazardous waste sites. While communication best practices have long guided such efforts, little research has examined unintended consequences arising from such guidelines. As rhetoric informs stakeholder sensemaking, the language used in and reinforced by these guidelines can challenge relationships and exacerbate stakeholder tensions. Objectives This study evaluates risk communication at a U.S. Superfund site to identify unintended consequences arising from current risk communication practices. Methods This qualitative case study crystallizes data spanning 6 years from three sources: 1) local newspaper coverage of site-related topics; 2) focus-group transcripts from a multi-year project designed to support future visioning of site use; and 3) published blog entries authored by a local environmental activist. Constant comparative analysis provides the study’s analytic foundation, with qualitative data analysis software QSR NVivo 8 supporting a three-step process: 1) provisional coding to identify broad topic categories within datasets, 2) coding occurrences of sensemaking constructs and emergent intra-dataset patterns, and 3) grouping related codes across datasets to examine the relationships among them. Results Existing risk communication practices at this Superfund site contribute to a dichotomous conceptualization of multiple and diverse stakeholders as members of one of only two categories: the government or the public. This conceptualization minimizes perceptions of capacity, encourages public commitment to stances aligned with a preferred group, and contributes to negative expectations that can become self-fulfilling prophecies. Conclusion Findings indicate a need to re-examine and adapt risk communication guidelines to encourage more pluralistic understanding of the stakeholder landscape

Analytical Thinking, Analytical Action: Using Prelab Video Demonstrations and e-Quizzes to Improve Undergraduate Preparedness for Analytical Chemistry Practical Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jolley, Dianne F.; Wilson, Stephen R.; Kelso, Celine; O'Brien, Glennys; Mason, Claire E.

2016-01-01

This project utilizes visual and critical thinking approaches to develop a higher-education synergistic prelab training program for a large second-year undergraduate analytical chemistry class, directing more of the cognitive learning to the prelab phase. This enabled students to engage in more analytical thinking prior to engaging in the…

Commentary on "Theory-Led Design of Instruments and Representations in Learning Analytics: Developing a Novel Tool for Orchestration of Online Collaborative Learning"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teplovs, Chris

2015-01-01

This commentary reflects on the contributions to learning analytics and theory by a paper that describes how multiple theoretical frameworks were woven together to inform the creation of a new, automated discourse analysis tool. The commentary highlights the contributions of the original paper, provides some alternative approaches, and touches on…

Estimating the contribution of genetic variants to difference in incidence of disease between population groups.

PubMed

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Ioannidis, John P A; Flanders, W Dana; Yang, Quanhe; Truman, Benedict I; Khoury, Muin J

2012-08-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic susceptibility variants to several complex human diseases. However, risk-genotype frequency at loci showing robust associations might differ substantially among different populations. In this paper, we present methods to assess the contribution of genetic variants to the difference in the incidence of disease between different population groups for different scenarios. We derive expressions for the contribution of a single genetic variant, multiple genetic variants, and the contribution of the joint effect of a genetic variant and an environmental factor to the difference in the incidence of disease. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence increases with increasing difference in risk-genotype frequency, but declines with increasing difference in incidence between the two populations. The contribution of genetic variants also increases with increasing relative risk and the contribution of joint effect of genetic and environmental factors increases with increasing relative risk of the gene-environmental interaction. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence between two populations can be expressed as a function of the population attributable risks of the genetic variants in the two populations. The contribution of a group of genetic variants to the disparity in incidence of disease could change considerably by adding one more genetic variant to the group. Any estimate of genetic contribution to the disparity in incidence of disease between two populations at this stage seems to be an elusive goal.

Estimating the contribution of genetic variants to difference in incidence of disease between population groups

PubMed Central

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Ioannidis, John PA; Flanders, W Dana; Yang, Quanhe; Truman, Benedict I; Khoury, Muin J

2012-01-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic susceptibility variants to several complex human diseases. However, risk-genotype frequency at loci showing robust associations might differ substantially among different populations. In this paper, we present methods to assess the contribution of genetic variants to the difference in the incidence of disease between different population groups for different scenarios. We derive expressions for the contribution of a single genetic variant, multiple genetic variants, and the contribution of the joint effect of a genetic variant and an environmental factor to the difference in the incidence of disease. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence increases with increasing difference in risk-genotype frequency, but declines with increasing difference in incidence between the two populations. The contribution of genetic variants also increases with increasing relative risk and the contribution of joint effect of genetic and environmental factors increases with increasing relative risk of the gene–environmental interaction. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence between two populations can be expressed as a function of the population attributable risks of the genetic variants in the two populations. The contribution of a group of genetic variants to the disparity in incidence of disease could change considerably by adding one more genetic variant to the group. Any estimate of genetic contribution to the disparity in incidence of disease between two populations at this stage seems to be an elusive goal. PMID:22333905

Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal

2014-06-01

Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, risk–based technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by anmore » integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.« less

Towards psychoanalytic contribution to linguistic metaphor theory.

PubMed

Caspi, Tair

2017-07-05

This paper lays out a formulation of the psychoanalytical contribution to linguistic metaphor theory. The author's main argument is that psychoanalysis can help enrich and shed light on linguistic metaphor theories, since these have focused on the cognitive aspect, to the exclusion of the role played by affect. Based on the tight link between metaphor and symbol - both configurations of figurative language - the author shall apply ideas sourced from some of the key psychoanalytic symbolization theories, focusing in particular on Klein, Winnicott, and Ogden. The course of exploration will serve to trace the unconscious emotional aspects that participate in the metaphor's mechanism, just as they participate in the symbol's workings. The study leads to the main conclusion that the intersubjective transitional space is of substantial importance to metaphor's constitution, particularly in regard to novel metaphors. Expanding the understanding of metaphor's modus operandi has important implications in conceptual clarification and for an in-depth analytical work, and is of immense significance when it comes to analytical work with patients who suffer impairment of their metaphoric ability. Copyright © 2017 Institute of Psychoanalysis.

Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

2018-04-01

The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

Quality Indicators for Learning Analytics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheffel, Maren; Drachsler, Hendrik; Stoyanov, Slavi; Specht, Marcus

2014-01-01

This article proposes a framework of quality indicators for learning analytics that aims to standardise the evaluation of learning analytics tools and to provide a mean to capture evidence for the impact of learning analytics on educational practices in a standardised manner. The criteria of the framework and its quality indicators are based on…

Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

2007-08-01

Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process.

Approach–Avoidance Processes Contribute to Dissociable Impacts of Risk and Loss on Choice

PubMed Central

Wright, Nicholas D.; Symmonds, Mkael; Hodgson, Karen; Fitzgerald, Thomas H. B.; Crawford, Bonni; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

Value-based choices are influenced both by risk in potential outcomes and by whether outcomes reflect potential gains or losses. These variables are held to be related in a specific fashion, manifest in risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses. Instead, we hypothesized that there are independent impacts of risk and loss on choice such that, depending on context, subjects can show either risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses or the exact opposite. We demonstrate this independence in a gambling task, by selectively reversing a loss-induced effect (causing more gambling for gains than losses and the reverse) while leaving risk aversion unaffected. Consistent with these dissociable behavioral impacts of risk and loss, fMRI data revealed dissociable neural correlates of these variables, with parietal cortex tracking risk and orbitofrontal cortex and striatum tracking loss. Based on our neural data, we hypothesized that risk and loss influence action selection through approach–avoidance mechanisms, a hypothesis supported in an experiment in which we show valence and risk-dependent reaction time effects in line with this putative mechanism. We suggest that in the choice process risk and loss can independently engage approach–avoidance mechanisms. This can provide a novel explanation for how risk influences action selection and explains both classically described choice behavior as well as behavioral patterns not predicted by existing theory. PMID:22593069

An analytical framework for quantifying wildland fire risk and fuel treatment benefit

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott

2006-01-01

Federal wildland fire management programs have readily embraced the practice of fuel treatment. Wildland fire risk is quantified as expected annual loss ($ yr –1 or $ yr –1 ac –1). Fire risk at a point on the landscape is a function of the probability of burning at that point, the relative frequency...

World, Time And Anxiety. Heidegger's Existential Analytic And Psychiatry.

PubMed

Brencio, Francesca

2014-01-01

Martin Heidegger was one of the most influential but also criticized philosophers of the XX century. With Being and Time 1927 he sets apart his existential analytic from psychology as well as from anthropology and from the other human sciences that deny the ontological foundation, overcoming the Cartesian dualism in search of the ontological unit of an articulated multiplicity, as human being is. Heidegger's Dasein Analytic defines the fundamental structures of human being such as being-in-the-world, a unitary structure that discloses the worldhood of the world; the modes of being (Seinsweisen), such as fear (Furcht) and anxiety (Angst); and the relationship between existence and time. In his existential analytic, anxiety is one of the fundamental moods (Grundbefindlichkeit) and it plays a pivotal role in the relationship of Dasein with time and world. The paper firstly focuses on the modes of being, underlining the importance of anxiety for the constitution of human being; secondly, it shows the relationship between anxiety and the world, and anxiety and time: rejecting both the Aristotelian description of time, as a sequence of moments that informs our common understanding of time, and the Augustine's mental account of inner time, Heidegger considers temporality under a transcendental point of view. Temporality is ek-static, it is a process through which human being comes toward and back to itself, letting itself encounter the world and the entities. The transcendental interpretation of time provided by Heidegger may give its important contribution to psychopathology.

A health analytics semantic ETL service for obesity surveillance.

PubMed

Poulymenopoulou, M; Papakonstantinou, D; Malamateniou, F; Vassilacopoulos, G

2015-01-01

The increasingly large amount of data produced in healthcare (e.g. collected through health information systems such as electronic medical records - EMRs or collected through novel data sources such as personal health records - PHRs, social media, web resources) enable the creation of detailed records about people's health, sentiments and activities (e.g. physical activity, diet, sleep quality) that can be used in the public health area among others. However, despite the transformative potential of big data in public health surveillance there are several challenges in integrating big data. In this paper, the interoperability challenge is tackled and a semantic Extract Transform Load (ETL) service is proposed that seeks to semantically annotate big data to result into valuable data for analysis. This service is considered as part of a health analytics engine on the cloud that interacts with existing healthcare information exchange networks, like the Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise (IHE), PHRs, sensors, mobile applications, and other web resources to retrieve patient health, behavioral and daily activity data. The semantic ETL service aims at semantically integrating big data for use by analytic mechanisms. An illustrative implementation of the service on big data which is potentially relevant to human obesity, enables using appropriate analytic techniques (e.g. machine learning, text mining) that are expected to assist in identifying patterns and contributing factors (e.g. genetic background, social, environmental) for this social phenomenon and, hence, drive health policy changes and promote healthy behaviors where residents live, work, learn, shop and play.

Contribution of X-Ray Repair Complementing Defective Repair in Chinese Hamster Cells 3 (XRCC3) Genotype to Leiomyoma Risk.

PubMed

Chang, Wen-Shin; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Wang, Ju-Yu; Ying, Tsung-Ho; Hsiao, Tsan-Seng; Chuang, Chin-Liang; Yueh, Te-Cheng; Liao, Cheng-Hsi; Hsu, Chin-Mu; Liu, Shih-Ping; Gong, Chi-Li; Tsai, Chang-Hai; Bau, Da-Tian

2015-09-01

The present study aimed at investigating whether X-ray repair cross complementing protein 3 (XRCC3) genotype may serve as a useful marker for detecting leiomyoma and predicting risk. A total of 640 women (166 patients with leiomyoma and 474 healthy controls) were examined for their XRCC3 rs1799794, rs45603942, rs861530, rs3212057, rs1799796, rs861539, rs28903081 genotype. The distributions of genotypic and allelic frequencies between the two groups were compared. The results showed that the CT and TT genotypes of XRCC3 rs861539 were associated with increased leiomyoma risk (odds ratio=2.19, 95% confidence interval=1.23-3.90; odds ratio=3.72, 95% confidence interval=1.23-11.26, respectively). On allelic frequency analysis, we found a significant difference in the distribution of the T allelic frequency of the XRCC3 rs861539 (p=5.88 × 10(-5)). None of the other six single nucleotide polymorphisms were associated with altered leiomyoma susceptibility. The T allele (CT and TT genotypes) of XRCC3 rs861539 contributes to increased risk of leiomyoma among Taiwanese women and may serve as a early detection and predictive marker. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

[Construction of NIRS-based process analytical system for production of salvianolic acid for injection and relative discussion].

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Yue, Hong-Shui; Ju, Ai-Chun; Ye, Zheng-Liang

2016-10-01

Currently, near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has been considered as an efficient tool for achieving process analytical technology(PAT) in the manufacture of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) products. In this article, the NIRS based process analytical system for the production of salvianolic acid for injection was introduced. The design of the process analytical system was described in detail, including the selection of monitored processes and testing mode, and potential risks that should be avoided. Moreover, the development of relative technologies was also presented, which contained the establishment of the monitoring methods for the elution of polyamide resin and macroporous resin chromatography processes, as well as the rapid analysis method for finished products. Based on author's experience of research and work, several issues in the application of NIRS to the process monitoring and control in TCM production were then raised, and some potential solutions were also discussed. The issues include building the technical team for process analytical system, the design of the process analytical system in the manufacture of TCM products, standardization of the NIRS-based analytical methods, and improving the management of process analytical system. Finally, the prospect for the application of NIRS in the TCM industry was put forward. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Designing a Flood-Risk Education Program in the Netherlands

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bosschaart, Adwin; van der Schee, Joop; Kuiper, Wilmad

2016-01-01

This study focused on designing a flood-risk education program to enhance 15-year-old students' flood-risk perception. In the flood-risk education program, learning processes were modeled in such a way that the arousal of moderate levels of fear should prompt experiential and analytical information processing. In this way, understanding of flood…

Multifractal Value at Risk model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)