Science.gov

Sample records for risk assessment implications

  1. Risk Assessment: Implications for Biologic Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses risk assessment, including risk assessment as a modeling process, models and social values, political decision making, the public, and risk assessment techniques in the biology classroom. (MKR)

  2. Production of Insecticide Degradates in Juices: Implications for Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Radford, Samantha A; Panuwet, Parinya; Hunter, Ronald E; Barr, Dana Boyd; Ryan, P Barry

    2016-06-01

    This study was designed to observe the production of degradates of two organophosphorus insecticides and one pyrethroid insecticide in beverages. Purified water, white grape juice, apple juice, and red grape juice were fortified with 500 ng/g malathion, chlorpyrifos, and permethrin, and aliquots were extracted for malathion dicarboxylic acid (MDA), 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), and 3-phenoxybenzoic acid (3-PBA) several times over a 15 day period of being stored in the dark at 2.5 °C. Overall, first-order kinetics were observed for production of MDA, and statistically significant production of TCPy was also observed. Statistically significant production of 3-phenoxybenzoic acid was not observed. Results indicate that insecticides degrade in food and beverages, and this degradation may lead to preexisting insecticide metabolites in the beverages. Therefore, it is suggested that caution should be exercised when using urinary insecticide metabolites to assess exposure and risk. PMID:27213611

  3. Toxicokinetics to identify nonlinearities in dose-response and implications for risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    For presentation at the 45th Annual Symposium of the Society of Toxicology of Canada. The meeting will be held on 4-5 December 2013 at the Ottawa Convention Centre. Toxicokinetics to identify nonlinearities in dose-response and implications for risk assessment. Rory Conolly, Offi...

  4. POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF GENOMICS FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS AT EPA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Benson, W.H., K. Gallagher and K. Dearfield. In press. Potential Implications of Genomics for Regulatory and Risk Assessment Applications at EPA (Abstract). To be presented at the SETAC Fourth World Congress, 14-18 November 2004, Portland, OR. 1 p. (ERL,GB R1002).

    Advance...

  5. GENOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR EPA REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued its Interim Policy on Genomics in June 2002. The policy acknowledges that genomics data and analyses will significantly impact many areas of scientific research as well as human health and ecological assessments. Further, the inter...

  6. Implications of in vitro bioaccessibility differences for the assessment of risks of metals to bats.

    PubMed

    Hernout, Béatrice V; Bowman, Sarah R; Weaver, Robert J; Jayasinghe, Channaka J; Boxall, Alistair B A

    2015-04-01

    Food chain modeling is often used to assess the risks of chemical contaminants to wildlife. In modeling efforts, bioaccessibility from different dietary components is assumed to be similar. The present study explored potential differences in the in vitro bioaccessibility of metals from a range of insect orders, which are common components of the diet of insectivorous bats, and assessed the implications of this for environmental exposure assessment. Bioaccessibility of metals was assessed using an in vitro gastric model simulating gastric and intestinal conditions of insectivorous bats. In vitro-derived metal bioaccessibility was found to differ significantly across insect orders. Bioaccessibility was found to be greatest in Coleoptera, followed by Lepidoptera and Diptera. To establish the implications for risk assessment, a spatially explicit risk model was employed that included and excluded in vitro bioaccessibility data; to examine the daily oral exposure of metals to 14 bat species. The results show that when bioaccessibility data are included in the model, metal exposure predictions across species are changed and that the ranking of bat species, in terms of metal exposure, are altered. The authors recommend that in vitro bioaccessibility data begin to be employed when establishing the risks of contaminants to wildlife species. PMID:25557058

  7. Risk communication discourse among ecological risk assessment professionals and its implications for communication with nonexperts.

    PubMed

    Hunka, Agnieszka D; Palmqvist, Annemette; Thorbek, Pernille; Forbes, Valery E

    2013-10-01

    Risk communication, especially to the general public and end users of plant protection products, is an important challenge. Currently, much of the risk communication the general public receives is via the popular press, and risk managers face the challenge of presenting their decisions and their scientific basis to the general public in an understandable way. Therefore, we decided to explore the obstacles in risk communication, as done by expert risk assessors and managers. Using the discourse analysis framework and readability tests, we studied perspectives of 3 stakeholder groups-regulators, industry representatives, and academics across Europe. We conducted 30 confidential interviews (10 participants in each group), with part of the interview guide focused on communication of pesticide risk to the general public and the ideas experts in the field of risk assessment and management hold of the public perception of pesticides. We used the key informant approach in recruiting our participants. They were first identified as key stakeholders in ecological risk assessment of pesticides and then sampled by means of a snowball sampling technique. In the analysis, first we identified main motifs (themes) in each group, and then we moved to studying length of the sentences and grammar and to uncovering discourses present in the text data. We also used the Flesch Reading Ease test to determine the comprehension difficulty of transcribed interviews. The test is commonly used as a standard for estimating the readability of technical documents. Our results highlight 3 main obstacles standing in the way of effective communication with wider audiences. First of all, ecological risk assessment as a highly technical procedure uses the specific language of ecological risk assessment, which is also highly specialized and might be difficult to comprehend by nonexperts. Second, the idea of existing "expert-lay discrepancy," a phenomenon described in risk perception studies is visibly

  8. Implications of recent ICRP recommendations for risk assessments for radioactive waste disposal and cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Devgun, J.S.

    1992-01-01

    The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) adopted a new set of recommendations in November 1990 which were issued at ICRP Publication No. 60 in March 1991. These recommendations incorporate new radiobiological information and outline a comprehensive system of radiological protection. This paper evaluates the implications of these new recommendations vis a vis risk assessments for radioactive waste disposal and remediation of radioactively contaminated sites.

  9. Implications of recent ICRP recommendations for risk assessments for radioactive waste disposal and cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Devgun, J.S.

    1992-04-01

    The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) adopted a new set of recommendations in November 1990 which were issued at ICRP Publication No. 60 in March 1991. These recommendations incorporate new radiobiological information and outline a comprehensive system of radiological protection. This paper evaluates the implications of these new recommendations vis a vis risk assessments for radioactive waste disposal and remediation of radioactively contaminated sites.

  10. Assessing genetic risks: Implications for health and social policy. Executive summary

    SciTech Connect

    Andrews, L.B.; Fullarton, J.E.; Holtzman, N.A.; Motulsky, A.G.

    1994-12-31

    The last decade has seen remarkable growth in the understanding of genetics as applied to medicine. In addition, the technology for the detection of genetic diseases has developed rapidly, and testing for genetic diseases with DNA techniques has become increasingly possible. The last few years have also seen the initiation of the Human Genome Project, the aim of which is mapping and ultimately sequencing all human genes--giving special attention to genes that cause or may predispose to disease. As part of this ambitious project, and for the first time in the history of science, a special effort is being made as part of a large research project to explore its broader social implications. Three to five percent of the funding available for the Human Genome Project has been set aside to study the many social, ethical, and legal implications that will result from better understanding of human heredity and its impact on disease. Since assessment of genetic risks by genetic testing is expanding rapidly, the Institute of medicine (IOM) of the National Academy of Sciences undertook this study to assess the current status and future implications of such testing. This study deals with some of the scientific aspects of genetic risk assessment as well as the many societal problems that have already arisen and are likely to be posed by future developments.

  11. Assessing coughing-induced influenza droplet transmission and implications for infection risk control.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Y-H; Wang, C-H; You, S-H; Hsieh, N-H; Chen, W-Y; Chio, C-P; Liao, C-M

    2016-01-01

    Indoor transmission of respiratory droplets bearing influenza within humans poses high risks to respiratory function deterioration and death. Therefore, we aimed to develop a framework for quantifying the influenza infection risk based on the relationships between inhaled/exhaled respiratory droplets and airborne transmission dynamics in a ventilated airspace. An experiment was conducted to measure the size distribution of influenza-containing droplets produced by coughing for a better understanding of potential influenza spread. Here we integrated influenza population transmission dynamics, a human respiratory tract model, and a control measure approach to examine the indoor environment-virus-host interactions. A probabilistic risk model was implemented to assess size-specific infection risk for potentially transmissible influenza droplets indoors. Our results found that there was a 50% probability of the basic reproduction number (R0) exceeding 1 for small-size influenza droplets of 0·3-0·4 µm, implicating a potentially high indoor infection risk to humans. However, a combination of public health interventions with enhanced ventilation could substantially contain indoor influenza infection. Moreover, the present dynamic simulation and control measure assessment provide insights into why indoor transmissible influenza droplet-induced infection is occurring not only in upper lung regions but also in the lower respiratory tract, not normally considered at infection risk. PMID:26211781

  12. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Tolaymat, Thabet; El Badawy, Amro; Sequeira, Reynold; Genaidy, Ash

    2015-11-15

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture "what is known" and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. PMID:26079368

  13. Assessing the variability in extreme high water levels and the implications for coastal flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, Niall; Lewis, Matthew; Wadey, Matthew; Haigh, Ivan

    2014-05-01

    Assessing the variability in extreme high water levels and the implications for coastal flood risk In this research we assess the temporal variability in the time-series of extreme water levels at 44 A- Class tide gauges around the UK. Extreme (> 99th percentile) storm tide events, sampled from water level measurements taken every 15 minutes between 1993 and 2012, were analysed at each site, and the variability in elevation relative to a given event storm tide peak was quantified. The magnitude of the variability in the time-series was found to be both spatially variable across the UK, and temporally variable relative to the time of the high water. Boundary water levels associated with a range of event magnitudes at case study locations around the UK were used to force two-dimensional hydrodynamic models to examine the importance of storm tide time-series uncertainty to flood risk predictions. The comparison of inundation extent, depth, and number of buildings affected demonstrated the importance of accurately defining the duration and magnitude of defence exceedance. For example, given a current 1 in 200 year event magnitude at Portsmouth (UK), the predicted number of buildings inundated differed by more than 30% when contrasting simulations forced with the 5th percentile time-series relative to those forced with the 95th percentile time-series. The results clearly indicate that variability in the time-series of the storm tide can have considerable influence upon the duration and magnitude by which defences are exceeded, hence with implications for coastal flood risk assessments. Therefore, further evaluating and representing this uncertainty in future flood risk assessments is vital, while the 5th and 95th percentile time-series defined in this research provide a tool for coastal flood modellers. Only defence overflow-induced inundation was examined in this research. However, it is expected that variability in storm tide time-series will also have important

  14. Benzene toxicity and risk assessment, 1972-1992: implications for future regulation.

    PubMed Central

    Paustenbach, D J; Bass, R D; Price, P

    1993-01-01

    Acute and chronic exposure to benzene vapors poses a number of health hazards to humans. To evaluate the probability that a specific degree of exposure will produce an adverse effect, risk assessment methods must be used. This paper reviews much of the published information and evaluates the various risk assessments for benzene that have been conducted over the past 20 years. There is sufficient evidence that chronic exposure to relatively high concentrations of benzene can produce an increased incidence of acute myelogenous leukemia (AML). Some studies have indicated that benzene may cause other leukemias, but due to the inconsistency of results, the evidence is not conclusive. To predict the leukemogenic risk for humans exposed to much lower doses of benzene than those observed in most epidemiology studies, a model must be used. Although several models could yield plausible results, to date most risk assessments have used the linear-quadratic or conditional logistic models. These appear to be the most appropriate ones for providing the cancer risk for airborne concentrations of 1 ppb to 10 ppm, the range most often observed in the community and workplace. Of the seven major epidemiology studies that have been conducted, there is a consensus that the Pliofilm cohort (rubber workers) is the best one for estimating the cancer potency because it is the only one with good exposure and incidence of disease data. The current EPA, OSHA, and ACGIH cancer potency estimates for benzene are based largely on this cohort. A retrospective exposure assessment and an analysis of the incidence of disease in these workers were completed in 1991. All of these issues are discussed and the implications evaluated in this paper. The range of benzene exposures to which Americans are commonly exposed and the current regulatory criteria are also presented. PMID:8020442

  15. Human variability in hepatic and renal elimination: implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dorne, J L C M

    2007-01-01

    Hepatic metabolism and renal excretion constitute the main routes of xenobiotic elimination in humans. Improving human risk assessment for threshold contaminants requires the incorporation of quantitative data related to their elimination (toxicokinetics) and potential toxic effects (toxicodynamics). This type of data provides a scientific basis to replace the standard uncertainty factor (UF = 10) allowing for the consideration of human variability in toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics. This review focuses on recent research efforts aiming to incorporate human variability in hepatic and renal elimination (toxicokinetics) into the risk assessment process. A therapeutic drug database was developed to quantify pathway-related variability in human phase I and phase II hepatic metabolism as well as renal excretion in subgroups of the population (healthy adults, neonates and the elderly), using data on compounds cleared primarily through each route (> 60% dose). For each subgroup of the population and elimination route, pathway-related UFs were then derived to cover 95-99% of each subgroup. Overall, the default toxicokinetic UFs would not cover neonates, the elderly for most elimination routes and any subgroup of the population for compounds metabolized via polymorphic isozymes (such as CYP2C19 and CYP2D6). These pathway-related UFs allow the incorporation of in vivo metabolism and toxicokinetic data in the risk assessment process and provide a flexible intermediate option between the default UF and chemical-specific adjustment factors (CSAFs) derived from physiologically based pharmacokinetic models. Implications of human variability in hepatic metabolism and renal excretion for chemical risk assessment are discussed. PMID:17497760

  16. PCB in tissue concentrations in great blue heron occupying a Superfund site: Risk assessment implications

    SciTech Connect

    Halbrook, R.S.; Brewer, R.; Mitchell, J.M.

    1994-12-31

    Using existing ambient concentrations of chemicals and conservative assumptions, preliminary risk assessment has indicated that piscivorous wildlife along the Clinch River adjacent to the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), Oak Ridge, TN are potentially at risk from exposure to PCBs. Total PCB concentrations in great blue heron egg and chick liver tissue (7.69 {mu}g/g and 1.91 {mu}g/g, respectively) collected from a tributary to the Clinch River passing through the ORR, were significantly greater than concentrations in egg and chick liver tissue (1.24 {mu}g/g and 0.71 {mu}g/g, respectively) collected off the ORR. Mono and non-ortho CB congeners also were greater in heron tissues collected on the ORR compared to those collected off the ORR. Reproductive parameters (eggs/nest and chicks/nest) were not significantly different between locations. These data indicate that herons nesting on the ORR are exposed to PCBs, however, concentrations are insufficient to illicit a detectable adverse reproductive response in this species. Risk assessment implications are that piscivorous species utilizing habitats on the ORR are accumulating environmental contaminants greater than back ground concentrations for this region, however, only the most sensitive species are probably adversely effected. Continued monitoring will provide base-line data for evaluating natural resource damages and remediation decisions.

  17. Chemical mixtures released from hazardous waste sites: implications for health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Johnson, B L; DeRosa, C T

    1995-12-28

    Uncontrolled hazardous waste sites (HWS) and exposure to hazardous substances continue to pose complex public health problems. This paper presents an overview of chemicals, including chemical mixtures, that have been released into environmental media in the vicinity of HWS. We describe how this type of information is being used to assess the public health implications of exposures to chemical mixtures and to develop an integrated program of applied research to more accurately characterize the potential health effects of chemical mixtures. A narrative, weight-of-evidence approach, incorporating mechanistic insights on chemical interactions is described. The utility of this information in the context of risk analysis and public health practice is discussed. PMID:8571353

  18. Nonadditive effects of PAHs on Early Vertebrate Development: mechanisms and implications for risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Billiard, Sonya M.; Meyer, Joel N.; Wassenberg, Deena M.; Hodson, Peter V.; Di Giulio, Richard T.

    2008-01-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous environmental contaminants. Traditionally, much of the research has focused on the carcinogenic potential of specific PAHs, such as benzo(a)pyrene, but recent studies using sensitive fish models have shown that exposure to PAHs alters normal fish development. Some PAHs can induce a teratogenic phenotype similar to that caused by planar halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons, such as dioxin. Consequently, mechanism of action is often equated between the two classes of compounds. Unlike dioxins, however, the developmental toxicity of PAH mixtures is not necessarily additive. This is likely related to their multiple mechanisms of toxicity and their rapid biotransformation by CYP1 enzymes to metabolites with a wide array of structures and potential toxicities. This has important implications for risk assessment and management as the current approach for complex mixtures of PAHs usually assumes concentration addition. In this review we discuss our current knowledge of teratogenicity caused by single PAH compounds and by mixtures and the importance of these latest findings for adequately assessing risk of PAHs to humans and wildlife. Throughout, we place particular emphasis on research on the early life stages of fish, which has proven to be a sensitive and rapid developmental model to elucidate effects of hydrocarbon mixtures. PMID:18156145

  19. Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

    SciTech Connect

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2009-10-01

    Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

  20. Formaldehyde and LeukemiA: Epidemiology, Potential Mechanisms and Implications for Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Formaldehyde is widely used in the United States and other countries. Occupational and environmental exposures to formaldehyde may be associated with an increased risk of leukemia in exposed individuals. However, risk assessment of formaldehyde and leukemia has been challenging ...

  1. EXPOSURE TO INTERMITTENT AIR POLLUTION AND CHANGES IN SEMEN QUALITY: EVIDENCE FOR AN ASSOCIATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR REPRODUCTIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure to Intermittent Air Pollution and Changes in Semen Quality:
    Evidence for an Association and Implications for Reproductive Risk Assessment.

    S. D. Perreault1, S.G. Selevan2, J. Rubes3, D. Zudova3, and D.P. Evenson4
    1US EPA, ORD/NHEERL, Research Triangle Pa...

  2. The synergistic toxicity of the multiple chemical mixtures: implications for risk assessment in the terrestrial environment.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chen; Wang, Yanhua; Qian, Yongzhong; Zhao, Xueping; Wang, Qiang

    2015-04-01

    The combined toxicity of five insecticides (chlorpyrifos, avermectin, imidacloprid, λ-cyhalothrin, and phoxim), two herbicides (atrazine and butachlor) and a heavy metal (cadmium) has been examined with the earthworm acute toxicity test. Toxicological interactions of these chemicals in four, five, six, seven, and eight-component mixtures were studied using the combination-index (CI) equation method. In four-component and five-component mixtures, the synergistic effects predominated at lower effect levels, while the patterns of interactions found in six, seven, and eight-component mixtures displayed synergism. The λ-CY+IMI+BUT+ATR+CPF+PHO combination displayed the most strongly synergistic interaction, with CI values ranging from 0.09 to 0.15. The nature of the interaction changes with the effect level and the relevance of synergistic effects increase with the complexity of the mixture. The CI method was compared with the classical models of concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) and we found that the CI method could accurately predict the combined toxicity. The predicted synergism resulted from co-existence of the pesticides and the heavy metal especially at low effect levels may have important implications in risk assessment for the real terrestrial environment. PMID:25667058

  3. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

  4. IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF HUMAN HEALTH RISKS OF CHEMICALS IN THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

    PubMed Central

    Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair BA; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:62–78. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23147420

  5. Susceptibility based upon Chemical Interaction with Disease Processes: Potential Implications for Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    One of the challenges facing toxicology and risk assessment is that numerous host and environmental factors may modulate vulnerability and risk. An area of increasing interest is the potential for chemicals to interact with background aging and disease processes, an interaction...

  6. Arsenic relative bioavailability from diet and airborne exposures: Implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Yager, Janice W; Greene, Tracy; Schoof, Rosalind A

    2015-12-01

    Major human environmental health concern has been associated with inorganic arsenic (iAs) in drinking water in which dissolved iAs is highly bioavailable. More recently health concerns have been raised regarding the extent of iAs exposure via food and other potential sources. Arsenic relative bioavailability (RBA) in soil is known to be variable; the extent and role of iAs bioavailability in food are not well characterized. iAs in coal fly ash and bottom ash are other potential exposure media for which RBA has not been well characterized. A comprehensive literature search was conducted to support evaluation of the contribution of food and coal fly ash to iAs exposure. Few studies were found that investigated bioavailability associated with As-containing coal ash or airborne As-containing particles; estimated bioavailability in these studies ranged from 11% to 50%. The implications and potential usefulness of iAs bioavailability associated with inhalation exposure to human health risk assessment remain unknown at this time. Main sources of dietary iAs intake in the U.S. include rice and other grains, vegetables, and fruits. Due to low concentrations of iAs, seafood is not a primary contributor to dietary iAs intake. Three general kinds of food studies were identified: studies of As bioaccessibility in composites, As bioavailability and bioaccessibility in specific foods, and As consumption and urinary excretion in human volunteers. One in vivo study was identified that examined As bioavailability in food. A variety of experimental in vitro gastro-intestinal protocols have been used, however, few studies have included As speciation before and after the in vitro extraction. Current data suggest that the bioaccessibility of iAs in rice is quite high, typically 70% or more indicating that iAs in rice is highly bioavailable. Adjusting for RBA may not have a meaningful impact on iAs exposure estimates for rice-based foods. PMID:26225742

  7. Ownership of High-Risk ("Vicious") Dogs as a Marker for Deviant Behaviors: Implications for Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, Jaclyn E.; Boat, Barbara W.; Putnam, Frank W.; Dates, Harold F.; Mahlman, Andrew R.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined the association between ownership of high-risk ("vicious") dogs and the presence of deviant behaviors in the owners as indicated by court convictions. We also explored whether two characteristics of dog ownership (abiding licensing laws and choice of breed) could be useful areas of inquiry when assessing risk status in settings…

  8. Co-occurring mental health and substance use problems in offenders: implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Ruiz, Mark A; Douglas, Kevin S; Edens, John F; Nikolova, Natalia L; Lilienfeld, Scott O

    2012-03-01

    We undertook a secondary data analysis to study issues relevant to co-occurring mental health and substance disorder in a combined sample of offenders (N = 3,197). Using the Personality Assessment Inventory, we compared the frequency of depressive, traumatic stress, and personality disorder symptom elevations across offenders with and without substance problems, identified the extent to which co-occurring problems were accompanied by risk factors for suicide and aggression, and tested for gender differences. Offenders with substance problems were more likely than others to have increased mental health problems and risk factors for suicide or aggression. Women with substance problems, compared with men, had higher depression, traumatic stress, and borderline features, in addition to lower antisocial features. The frequency with which suicide and aggression risk factors were associated with mental health problems was generally similar across men and women. Measurement issues relevant to co-occurring disorder and risk assessment are discussed. PMID:21787090

  9. Risk management & organizational uncertainty implications for the assessment of high consequence organizations

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, C.T.

    1995-02-23

    Post hoc analyses have demonstrated clearly that macro-system, organizational processes have played important roles in such major catastrophes as Three Mile Island, Bhopal, Exxon Valdez, Chernobyl, and Piper Alpha. How can managers of such high-consequence organizations as nuclear power plants and nuclear explosives handling facilities be sure that similar macro-system processes are not operating in their plants? To date, macro-system effects have not been integrated into risk assessments. Part of the reason for not using macro-system analyses to assess risk may be the impression that standard organizational measurement tools do not provide hard data that can be managed effectively. In this paper, I argue that organizational dimensions, like those in ISO 9000, can be quantified and integrated into standard risk assessments.

  10. Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

    PubMed

    Leake, Jonathan R; Adam-Bradford, Andrew; Rigby, Janette E

    2009-01-01

    Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with 'greenspace' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from 'grow-your-own' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating 'scares' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of 'obesity and sloth' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of 'grow-your-own' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide risk management in our

  11. Current understanding of the mechanism of benzene-induced leukemia in humans: implications for risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    McHale, Cliona M.; Zhang, Luoping; Smith, Martyn T.

    2012-01-01

    Benzene causes acute myeloid leukemia and probably other hematological malignancies. As benzene also causes hematotoxicity even in workers exposed to levels below the US permissible occupational exposure limit of 1 part per million, further assessment of the health risks associated with its exposure, particularly at low levels, is needed. Here, we describe the probable mechanism by which benzene induces leukemia involving the targeting of critical genes and pathways through the induction of genetic, chromosomal or epigenetic abnormalities and genomic instability, in a hematopoietic stem cell (HSC); stromal cell dysregulation; apoptosis of HSCs and stromal cells and altered proliferation and differentiation of HSCs. These effects modulated by benzene-induced oxidative stress, aryl hydrocarbon receptor dysregulation and reduced immunosurveillance, lead to the generation of leukemic stem cells and subsequent clonal evolution to leukemia. A mode of action (MOA) approach to the risk assessment of benzene was recently proposed. This approach is limited, however, by the challenges of defining a simple stochastic MOA of benzene-induced leukemogenesis and of identifying relevant and quantifiable parameters associated with potential key events. An alternative risk assessment approach is the application of toxicogenomics and systems biology in human populations, animals and in vitro models of the HSC stem cell niche, exposed to a range of levels of benzene. These approaches will inform our understanding of the mechanisms of benzene toxicity and identify additional biomarkers of exposure, early effect and susceptibility useful for risk assessment. PMID:22166497

  12. Evolution of cancer risk assessment and counseling related to psychological, financial and legal implications.

    PubMed

    Snyder, Carrie

    2016-07-01

    Cancer risk assessment, genetic counseling and genetic testing have experienced advances and changes over the past two decades due to improved technology, legal movements to protect those at an increased risk for cancer due to genetics, as well as advances in detection, prevention and treatment. This brief article will provide a summary of these advances over three eras of cancer genetics: pre-discovery of the more common high impact genes, namely BRCA1/BRCA2 and the mismatch repair genes associated with Lynch syndrome; the time during which the genes were being discovered; and current day. PMID:26920353

  13. Polychlorinated biphenyls and Hudson River white perch: implications for population-level ecological risk assessment and risk management.

    PubMed

    Barnthouse, Lawrence W; Glaser, David; DeSantis, Liane

    2009-07-01

    Risk assessments and risk management decisions concerning risks to wild fish populations resulting from exposures to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and related chemicals have been based primarily on observations of effects of chemicals on individual organisms. Although the development and application of population-level ecological risk-assessment methods is proceeding at a rapid pace, the organism-level approach is still being justified by arguments that population-level ecological risk assessment is in an early stage of development and has not been shown to be reliable. This article highlights the importance of including population-level effects in risk-management decision-making, by examining the effects of exposures to PCBs on fish populations inhabiting the Hudson River, New York, USA, a system in which data have been collected for approximately 30 y concerning both concentrations of PCBs in sediment and fish tissue and the abundance and reproduction of exposed fish populations. We previously tested hypotheses concerning the effects of PCBs on the striped bass population of the Hudson River, and found that the available data conflicted with all of these hypotheses. Here, we report results of similar analyses of effects of historic PCB exposures on the Hudson River white perch population, using an extended data set that recently became available. As with striped bass, we found no correlation between maternal PCB tissue concentrations and any measure of reproductive success in Hudson River white perch during the 30-y period covered by the data set. Together with results of studies performed on fish populations exposed to PCBs at other sites, our results clearly demonstrate that physiological and genetic adaptation, biological compensation, and other ecological processes influence responses of fish populations to PCB exposures and should be considered in risk management decision-making. PMID:20050031

  14. Genetically modified plants and food hypersensitivity diseases: usage and implications of experimental models for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Prescott, Vanessa E; Hogan, Simon P

    2006-08-01

    The recent advances in biotechnology in the plant industry have led to increasing crop production and yield that in turn has increased the usage of genetically modified (GM) food in the human food chain. The usage of GM foods for human consumption has raised a number of fundamental questions including the ability of GM foods to elicit potentially harmful immunological responses, including allergic hypersensitivity. To assess the safety of foods derived from GM plants including allergenic potential, the US FDA, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO), and the EU have developed approaches for evaluation assessment. One assessment approach that has been a very active area of research and debate is the development and usage of animal models to assess the potential allergenicity of GM foods. A number of specific animal models employing rodents, pigs, and dogs have been developed for allergenicity assessment. However, validation of these models is needed and consideration of the criteria for an appropriate animal model for the assessment of allergenicity in GM plants is required. We have recently employed a BALB/c mouse model to assess the potential allergenicity of GM plants. We have been able to demonstrate that this model is able to detect differences in antigenicity and identify aspects of protein post-translational modifications that can alter antigenicity. Furthermore, this model has also enabled us to examine the usage of GM plants as a therapeutic approach for the treatment of allergic diseases. This review discusses the current approaches to assess the allergenic potential of GM food and particularly focusing on the usage of animal models to determine the potential allergenicity of GM foods and gives an overview of our recent findings and implications of these studies. PMID:16364445

  15. Implications of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment Using the WHO/ISH Risk Prediction Charts in Rural India

    PubMed Central

    Raghu, Arvind; Praveen, Devarsetty; Peiris, David; Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifford, Gari

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in India is currently assessed using the World Health Organization/International Society for Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts since no population-specific models exist. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts have two versions—one with total cholesterol as a predictor (the high information (HI) model) and the other without (the low information (LI) model). However, information on the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts including guidance on which version to use and when, as well as relative performance of the LI and HI models, is limited. This article aims to, firstly, quantify the relative performance of the LI and HI WHO/ISH risk prediction (for WHO-South East Asian Region D) using data from rural India. Secondly, we propose a pre-screening (simplified) point-of-care (POC) test to identify patients who are likely to benefit from a total cholesterol (TC) test, and subsequently when the LI model is preferential to HI model. Analysis was performed using cross-sectional data from rural Andhra Pradesh collected in 2005 with recorded blood cholesterol measurements (N = 1066). CVD risk was computed using both LI and HI models, and high risk individuals who needed treatment(THR) were subsequently identified based on clinical guidelines. Model development for the POC assessment of a TC test was performed through three machine learning techniques: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Regularised Logistic Regression (RLR), and Random Forests (RF) along with a feature selection process. Disagreement in CVD risk predicted by LI and HI WHO/ISH models was 14.5% (n = 155; p<0.01) overall and comprised 36 clinically relevant THR patients (31% of patients identified as THR by using either model). Using two patient-specific parameters (age, systolic blood pressure), our POC assessment can pre-determine the benefit of TC testing and choose the appropriate risk model (out-of-sample AUCs:RF-0.85,SVM-0.84,RLR:0.82 and maximum sensitivity-98%). The

  16. Comparative application of different risk assessment models and implications on resulting remediation options.

    PubMed

    Capodaglio, Andrea; Callegari, Arianna; Torretta, Vincenzo

    2014-01-01

    The issue of contaminated soils and their productive recovery is a quite controversial environmental and economic problem with important consequences for its social, public health and sustainability aspects. The sheer number and characteristics of the polluted sites are so large and varied, and the definition of priorities related to their remediation interventions so site-dependent, that proper characterization and final environmental quality goals reflect a strategic importance. One of the possible approaches to site specific approach and site priority ranking can be that of carrying out, respectively, absolute and comparative analysis procedures. An important aspect to be solved is represented by the necessity to consider not only the potential risk to public health, but also the best possible financial return from the investments for remediation, especially when carried out with public money. In this paper, different contaminated sites' risk assessment approaches are considered, compared and their applicability to support sustainable policies discussed using a case study. PMID:24645457

  17. Bioaccumulation of trace elements in Ruditapes philippinarum from China: public health risk assessment implications.

    PubMed

    Yang, Feng; Zhao, Liqiang; Yan, Xiwu; Wang, Yuan

    2013-04-01

    The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum is one of the most important commercial bivalve species consumed in China. Evaluated metal burden in bivalve molluscs can pose potential risks to public health as a result of their frequent consumption. In this study, concentrations of 10 trace elements (Cu, Zn, Mn, Se, Ni, Cd, Cr, Pb, Hg and As) were determined in samples of the bivalve Ruditapes philippinarum, collected from nine mariculture zones along the coast of China between November and December in 2010, in order to evaluate the status of elemental metal pollution in these areas. Also, a public health risk assessment was untaken to assess the potential risks associated with the consumption of clams. The ranges of concentrations found for Cu, Zn, Mn, Se, Ni, Cd, Cr, Pb, Hg and As in R. philippinarum were 12.1-38.0, 49.5-168.3, 42.0-68.0, 4.19-8.71, 4.76-14.32, 0.41-1.11, 0.94-4.74, 0.32-2.59, 0.03-0.23 and 0.46-11.95 mg·kg(-1) dry weight, respectively. Clear spatial variations were found for Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Hg and As, whereas Mn, Se, Ni, and Cd did not show significant spatial variation. Hotspots of trace element contamination in R. philippinarum can be found along the coast of China, from the north to the south, especially in the Bohai and Yellow Seas. Based on a 58.1 kg individual consuming 29 g of bivalve molluscs per day, the values of the estimated daily intake (EDI) of trace elements analyzed were significantly lower than the values of the accepted daily intake (ADI) established by Joint Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization Expert Committee on Food Additives (JFAO/WHO) and the guidelines of the reference does (RfD) established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Additionally, the risk of trace elements to humans through R. philippinarum consumption was also assessed. The calculated hazard quotients (HQ) of all trace elements were less than 1. Consequently, there was no obvious public risk from the intake of these

  18. Potential Effects of Chlorpyrifos on Fetal Growth Outcomes: Implications for Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Mink, Pamela J.; Kimmel, Carole A.; Li, Abby A.

    2012-01-01

    Chlorpyrifos (CPF) is one of the most widely used organophosphate insecticides in the United States. By December 2000, nearly all residential uses were voluntarily canceled, so that today, CPF is only used to control insect pests on a variety of crops. Periodic review of the potential effects of CPF on all developmental outcomes is necessary in the United States because the Food Quality Protection Act mandates special consideration of risk assessments for infants and children. This article reviews epidemiologic studies examining the association of potential CPF exposure with growth indices, including birth weight, birth length, and head circumference, and animal studies focusing on related somatic developmental endpoints. It differs from earlier reviews by including an additional cohort study and providing in-depth systematic evaluation of the patterns of association across different studies with respect to specificity of biomarkers for CPF, consistency, dose response, strength of association, temporality, and biological plausibility (Hill 1965), as well as consideration of the potential role of effect modification and bias. The review did not identify any strong associations exhibiting consistent exposure-response patterns that were observed in more than one of the four cohort studies evaluated. In addition, the animal data indicate that developmental effects occur at doses that produce substantial maternal toxicity and red blood cell (RBC) acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibition. Based on consideration of both the epidemiologic and animal data, maternal RBC AChE inhibition is a more sensitive endpoint for risk assessment than somatic developmental effects reviewed in this article. PMID:22571222

  19. Intra- and interindividual variability in lymphocyte chromosomal aberrations: implications for cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Peters, Susan; Portengen, Lützen; Bonassi, Stefano; Sram, Radim; Vermeulen, Roel

    2011-08-15

    Chromosomal aberration frequency in peripheral lymphocytes of healthy individuals has been found to be predictive of future cancer risk. The variability of chromosomal aberrations over time, which is largely unknown, should be clarified to interpret the strength of this association and to determine its use in cancer prediction. Intra- and interindividual variability in chromosomal aberration frequency was therefore determined. From a pooled database comprising 11 national cohorts (1965-2002), the authors included 9,433 blood samples from 3,550 subjects with at least one repeated chromosomal aberration measurement. The generalized concordance correlation coefficient of 0.19 was low, indicating high intraindividual variability compared with interindividual variability, resulting in a high likelihood of misclassification. The relation between chromosomal aberration frequency and future cancer risk has probably been underestimated in previous studies. A single chromosomal aberration measurement seems not to be representative of the whole lifespan level of chromosome instability and greatly limits the use of chromosomal aberration frequency-as measured with Giemsa staining-for individual risk assessment. PMID:21652601

  20. Dust-Metal Sources in an Urbanized Arid Zone: Implications for Health-Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    García-Rico, Leticia; Meza-Figueroa, Diana; Gandolfi, A Jay; Del Río-Salas, Rafael; Romero, Francisco M; Meza-Montenegro, Maria Mercedes

    2016-04-01

    The available information concerning metal pollution in different dust sources and the health effects in children remains limited in Mexico. This study focuses on Hermosillo, which is an urbanized area located in the Sonoran Desert in which soil resuspension and dust emission processes are common. The metal content of arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), and lead (Pb) were determined in three dust sources (playgrounds, roofs, and roads), each representing different exposure media (EM) for these elements. The metal levels in dust were found in the order of Mn > Cr > Pb > As with the highest metal content found in road dust. Despite the similar average metal distributions, principal component analysis shows a clear separation of the three EM with playground dust related to Cr and Mn and road dust to As and Pb. However, the geoaccumulation index results indicate that dust samples are uncontaminated to moderately polluted, except for Pb in road dust, which is considerably high. In addition, the enrichment factor suggests an anthropogenic origin for all of the studied metals except for Mn. In this context, the hazard index (HI) for noncarcinogenic risk is >1 in this population and thus represents a potential health risk. The spatial distribution for each metal on EM and the HI related to the marginality index could represent a more accurate decision-making tool in risk assessment studies. PMID:26433809

  1. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  2. The emerging molecular pathogenesis of neuroblastoma: implications for improved risk assessment and targeted therapy

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Neuroblastoma is one of the most common solid tumors of childhood, arising from immature sympathetic nervous system cells. The clinical course of patients with neuroblastoma is highly variable, ranging from spontaneous regression to widespread metastatic disease. Although the outcome for children with cancer has improved considerably during the past decades, the prognosis of children with aggressive neuroblastoma remains dismal. The clinical heterogeneity of neuroblastoma mirrors the biological and genetic heterogeneity of these tumors. Ploidy and MYCN amplification have been used as genetic markers for risk stratification and therapeutic decision making, and, more recently, gene expression profiling and genome-wide DNA copy number analysis have come into the picture as sensitive and specific tools for assessing prognosis. The applica tion of new genetic tools also led to the discovery of an important familial neuroblastoma cancer gene, ALK, which is mutated in approximately 8% of sporadic tumors, and genome-wide association studies have unveiled loci with risk alleles for neuroblastoma development. For some of the genomic regions that are deleted in some neuroblastomas, on 1p, 3p and 11q, candidate tumor suppressor genes have been identified. In addition, evidence has emerged for the contribution of epigenetic disturbances in neuroblastoma oncogenesis. As in other cancer entities, altered microRNA expression is also being recognized as an important player in neuroblastoma. The recent successes in unraveling the genetic basis of neuroblastoma are now opening opportunities for development of targeted therapies. PMID:19638189

  3. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  4. Undisclosed chemicals--implications for risk assessment: a case study from the mining industry.

    PubMed

    Singh, Khareen; Oates, Christopher; Plant, Jane; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-07-01

    Many of the chemicals used in industry can be hazardous to human health and the environment, and some formulations can have undisclosed ingredients and hazards, increasing the uncertainty of the risks posed by their use. The need for a better understanding of the extent of undisclosed information in chemicals arose from collecting data on the hazards and exposures of chemicals used in typical mining operations (copper, platinum and coal). Four main categories of undisclosed chemicals were defined (incomplete disclosure; chemicals with unspecific identities; relative quantities of ingredients not stated; and trade secret ingredients) by reviewing material safety data sheet (MSDS) omissions in previous studies. A significant number of chemicals (20% of 957 different chemicals) across the three sites had a range of undisclosed information, with majority of the chemicals (39%) having unspecific identities. The majority of undisclosed information was found in commercially available motor oils followed by cleaning products and mechanical maintenance products, as opposed to reagents critical to the main mining processes. All three types of chemicals had trade secrets, unspecific chemical identities and incomplete disclosures. These types of undisclosed information pose a hindrance to a full understanding of the hazards, which is made worse when combined with additional MSDS omissions such as acute toxicity endpoints (LD50) and/or acute aquatic toxicity endpoints (LC50), as well as inadequate hazard classifications of ingredients. The communication of the hazard information in the MSDSs varied according to the chemical type, the manufacturer and the regulations governing the MSDSs. Undisclosed information can undermine occupational health protection, compromise the safety of workers in industry, hinder risk assessment procedures and cause uncertainty about future health. It comes down to the duty of care that industries have towards their employees. With a wide range of

  5. Bioaccessibility of polychlorinated biphenyls in workplace dust and its implication for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Kang, Yuan; Yin, Yi; Man, Yubon; Li, Laisheng; Zhang, Qiuyun; Zeng, Lixuan; Luo, Jiwen; Wong, Ming Hung

    2013-10-01

    Human exposure to bioaccessible PCBs via indoor dust is limited around the world. In the present study, the workplace dust sample from commercial office, hospital, secondary school, shopping mall, electronic factory and manufacturing plant were collected from Hong Kong for PCBs analyses. Total PCBs concentrations ranged from 46.8 to 249 ng g(-1), with a median of 107 ng g(-1). Manufacturing plant showed the highest concentration among all of sampling sites. PCB 77 was found as the dominant congeners. The bioaccessibility of PCBs in small intestinal juice ranging from 8.3% to 26.0% was significantly higher than that in gastric condition, ranging from 4.8% to 12.4%. In addition, significant negative correlations (p<0.05) were observed between KOW and bioaccessibility for all workplace dust samples. Risk assessment indicated that the averaged daily dose of dioxin-like PCBs via non-dietary intake of workplace dust, considering the bioaccessibility of PCBs, were much lower than the TDI of dioxins (2.3 pg WHO-TEQ kgbw(-1)d(-1)) established by Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives. PMID:23838041

  6. Quantification of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast; implications for risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, Stephen G.; Delaney, Keith B.

    2015-04-01

    Our assessment of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast (i.e., the coast of British Columbia) begins with a review of the 1964 tsunami generated by The Great Alaska Earthquake (M9.2) that resulted in significant damage to coastal communities and infrastructure. In particular, the tsunami waves swept up inlets on the west coast of Vancouver Island and damaged several communities; Port Alberni suffered upwards of 5M worth of damage. At Port Alberni, the maximum tsunami wave height was estimated at 8.2 m above mean sea level and was recorded on the stream gauge on the Somass River located at about 7 m a.s.l, 6 km upstream from its mouth. The highest wave (9.75 m above tidal datum) was reported from Shields Bay, Graham Island, Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii). In addition, the 1964 tsunami was recorded on tide gauges at a number of locations on the BC coast. The 1964 signal and the magnitude and frequency of traces of other historical Pacific tsunamis (both far-field and local) are analysed in the Tofino tide gauge records and compared to tsunami traces in other tide gauges in the Pacific Basin (e.g., Miyako, Japan). Together with a review of the geological evidence for tsunami occurrence along Vancouver Island's west coast, we use this tide gauge data to develop a quantitative framework for tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific coast. In larger time scales, tsunamis are a major component of the hazard from Cascadia megathrust events. From sedimentological evidence and seismological considerations, the recurrence interval of megathrust events on the Cascadia Subduction Zone has been estimated by others at roughly 500 years. We assume that the hazard associated with a high-magnitude destructive tsunami thus has an annual frequency of roughly 1/500. Compared to other major natural hazards in western Canada this represents a very high annual probability of potentially destructive hazard that, in some coastal communities, translates into high levels of local risk

  7. Response of Silicon-Based Linear Energy Transfer Spectrometers: Implication for Radiation Risk Assessment in Space Flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Badhwar, G. D.; O'Neill, P. M.

    2001-01-01

    There is considerable interest in developing silicon-based telescopes because of their compactness and low power requirements. Three such telescopes have been flown on board the Space Shuttle to measure the linear energy transfer spectra of trapped, galactic cosmic ray, and solar energetic particles. Dosimeters based on single silicon detectors have also been flown on the Mir orbital station. A comparison of the absorbed dose and radiation quality factors calculated from these telescopes with that estimated from measurements made with a tissue equivalent proportional counter show differences which need to be fully understood if these telescopes are to be used for astronaut radiation risk assessments. Instrument performance is complicated by a variety of factors. A Monte Carlo-based technique was developed to model the behavior of both single element detectors in a proton beam, and the performance of a two-element, wide-angle telescope, in the trapped belt proton field inside the Space Shuttle. The technique is based on: (1) radiation transport intranuclear-evaporation model that takes into account the charge and angular distribution of target fragments, (2) Landau-Vavilov distribution of energy deposition allowing for electron escape, (3) true detector geometry of the telescope, (4) coincidence and discriminator settings, (5) spacecraft shielding geometry, and (6) the external space radiation environment, including albedo protons. The value of such detailed modeling and its implications in astronaut risk assessment is addressed. c2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Assessing exposure risk for dust storm events-associated lung function decrement in asthmatics and implications for control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Liao, Chung-Min

    2013-04-01

    Asian dust storms (ADS) events are seasonally-based meteorological phenomena that exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases. The purpose of this study was to assess human health risk from airborne dust exposure during ADS events in Taiwan. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed based on exposure and experimental data to quantify ADS events induced lung function decrement. The study reanalyzed experimental data from aerosol challenge in asthmatic individuals to construct the dose-response relationship between inhaled dust aerosol dose and decreasing percentage of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (%FEV1). An empirical lung deposition model was used to predict deposition fraction for size specific dust aerosols in pulmonary regions. The toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models were used to simulate dust aerosols binding kinetics in lung airway in that %FEV1 change was also predicted. The mask respirators were applied to control the inhaled dose under dust aerosols exposure. Our results found that only 2% probability the mild ADS events were likely to cause %FEV1 decrement higher than 5%. There were 50% probability of decreasing %FEV1 exceeding 16.9, 18.9, and 7.1% in north, center, and south Taiwan under severe ADS events, respectively. Our result implicates that the use of activated carbon of mask respirators has the best efficacy for reducing inhaled dust aerosol dose, by which the %FEV1 decrement can be reduced up to less than 1%.

  9. Response of silicon-based linear energy transfer spectrometers: implication for radiation risk assessment in space flights.

    PubMed

    Badhwar, G D; O'Neill, P M

    2001-07-11

    There is considerable interest in developing silicon-based telescopes because of their compactness and low power requirements. Three such telescopes have been flown on board the Space Shuttle to measure the linear energy transfer spectra of trapped, galactic cosmic ray, and solar energetic particles. Dosimeters based on single silicon detectors have also been flown on the Mir orbital station. A comparison of the absorbed dose and radiation quality factors calculated from these telescopes with that estimated from measurements made with a tissue equivalent proportional counter show differences which need to be fully understood if these telescopes are to be used for astronaut radiation risk assessments. Instrument performance is complicated by a variety of factors. A Monte Carlo-based technique was developed to model the behavior of both single element detectors in a proton beam, and the performance of a two-element, wide-angle telescope, in the trapped belt proton field inside the Space Shuttle. The technique is based on: (1) radiation transport intranuclear-evaporation model that takes into account the charge and angular distribution of target fragments, (2) Landau-Vavilov distribution of energy deposition allowing for electron escape, (3) true detector geometry of the telescope, (4) coincidence and discriminator settings, (5) spacecraft shielding geometry, and (6) the external space radiation environment, including albedo protons. The value of such detailed modeling and its implications in astronaut risk assessment is addressed. PMID:11858255

  10. Response of silicon-based linear energy transfer spectrometers: implication for radiation risk assessment in space flights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badhwar, G. D.; O'Neill, P. M.

    2001-07-01

    There is considerable interest in developing silicon-based telescopes because of their compactness and low power requirements. Three such telescopes have been flown on board the Space Shuttle to measure the linear energy transfer spectra of trapped, galactic cosmic ray, and solar energetic particles. Dosimeters based on single silicon detectors have also been flown on the Mir orbital station. A comparison of the absorbed dose and radiation quality factors calculated from these telescopes with that estimated from measurements made with a tissue equivalent proportional counter show differences which need to be fully understood if these telescopes are to be used for astronaut radiation risk assessments. Instrument performance is complicated by a variety of factors. A Monte Carlo-based technique was developed to model the behavior of both single element detectors in a proton beam, and the performance of a two-element, wide-angle telescope, in the trapped belt proton field inside the Space Shuttle. The technique is based on: (1) radiation transport intranuclear-evaporation model that takes into account the charge and angular distribution of target fragments, (2) Landau-Vavilov distribution of energy deposition allowing for electron escape, (3) true detector geometry of the telescope, (4) coincidence and discriminator settings, (5) spacecraft shielding geometry, and (6) the external space radiation environment, including albedo protons. The value of such detailed modeling and its implications in astronaut risk assessment is addressed.

  11. Aggregate dermal exposure to cyclic siloxanes in personal care products: implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Biesterbos, Jacqueline W H; Beckmann, Gwendolyn; van Wel, Luuk; Anzion, Rob B M; von Goetz, Natalie; Dudzina, Tatsiana; Roeleveld, Nel; Ragas, Ad M J; Russel, Frans G M; Scheepers, Paul T J

    2015-01-01

    Consumers who use personal care products (PCPs) are internally exposed to some of the organic components present of which some may be detected in exhaled air when eliminated. The aim of this study was the quantitative determination of octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4) and decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) in end-exhaled air to study dermal absorption of substances in PCPs. We exposed the forearm of fifteen healthy volunteers for 60min to pure D4 or D5 and to commercial products containing D4 and D5. Inhalation uptake was kept to a minimum by keeping the forearm in a flow cabinet during dermal exposure and supplying filtered air to the breathing zone of the volunteer during the post-exposure period. End-exhaled air was collected using a breath sampler (Bio-VOC), transferred to carbograph multi-bed adsorbent tubes and analyzed by thermal desorption gas chromatography mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS). In the end-exhaled air of non-exposed volunteers background concentrations of D4 (0.8-3.5ng/L) and D5 (0.8-4.0ng/L) were observed. After exposing the volunteers, the level of D4 and D5 in end-exhaled air did not or barely exceed background concentrations. At t=90min, a sharp increase of the D4/D5 concentration in end-exhaled air was observed, which we attributed to the inhalation of the substances during a toilet visit without using inhalation protection devices. When this visit was taken out of the protocol, the sharp increase disappeared. Overall, the results of our study indicate that dermal absorption of D4 and D5 contributes only marginally to internal exposure following dermal applications. As in our study inhalation is the primary route of entry for these compounds, we conclude that its risk assessment should focus on this particular exposure route. PMID:25454240

  12. Metal release from stainless steel powders and massive sheets--comparison and implication for risk assessment of alloys.

    PubMed

    Hedberg, Yolanda; Mazinanian, Neda; Odnevall Wallinder, Inger

    2013-02-01

    Industries that place metal and alloy products on the market are required to demonstrate that they are safe for all intended uses, and that any risks to humans, animals or the environment are adequately controlled. This requires reliable and robust in vitro test procedures. The aim of this study is to compare the release of alloy constituents from stainless steel powders of different grades (focus on AISI 316L) and production routes into synthetic body fluids with the release of the same metals from massive sheets in relation to material and surface characteristics. The comparison is justified by the fact that the difference between massive surfaces and powders from a metal release/dissolution and surface perspective is not clearly elucidated within current legislations. Powders and abraded and aged (24 h) massive sheets were exposed to synthetic solutions of relevance for biological settings and human exposure routes, for periods of up to one week. Concentrations of released iron, chromium, nickel, and manganese in solution were measured, and the effect of solution pH, acidity, complexation capacity, and proteins elucidated in relation to surface oxide composition and its properties. Implications for risk assessments based on in vitro metal release data from alloys are elucidated. PMID:25208703

  13. Strength-Based Assessment of Adolescents Who Abuse Drugs: Implications for Helping High-Risk Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cosden, Merith; Panteleakos, Frances; Gutierrez, Lisa; Barazani, Sivan; Gottheil, Elisa

    2004-01-01

    Strength-based assessments were designed to assess more completely the outcomes for youth having academic and behavioral problems in the schools. This approach has gained appeal among those working with adolescents who have serious behavior problems, such as those involved in drug use and related delinquent behavior. Traditional assessment…

  14. Radiation Hormesis: Historical Perspective and Implications for Low-Dose Cancer Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Vaiserman, Alexander M.

    2010-01-01

    Current guidelines for limiting exposure of humans to ionizing radiation are based on the linear-no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis for radiation carcinogenesis under which cancer risk increases linearly as the radiation dose increases. With the LNT model even a very small dose could cause cancer and the model is used in establishing guidelines for limiting radiation exposure of humans. A slope change at low doses and dose rates is implemented using an empirical dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). This imposes usually unacknowledged nonlinearity but not a threshold in the dose-response curve for cancer induction. In contrast, with the hormetic model, low doses of radiation reduce the cancer incidence while it is elevated after high doses. Based on a review of epidemiological and other data for exposure to low radiation doses and dose rates, it was found that the LNT model fails badly. Cancer risk after ordinarily encountered radiation exposure (medical X-rays, natural background radiation, etc.) is much lower than projections based on the LNT model and is often less than the risk for spontaneous cancer (a hormetic response). Understanding the mechanistic basis for hormetic responses will provide new insights about both risks and benefits from low-dose radiation exposure. PMID:20585444

  15. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials

    EPA Science Inventory

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology ...

  16. Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: Implications for Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk analysis perspective by Daniel Krewski and colleagues lays out the long-term vision and strategic plan developed by a National Research Council committee (1), sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with support from the U.S. National Toxicology Progr...

  17. Implications for risk assessment of suggested nongenotoxic mechanisms of chemical carcinogenesis.

    PubMed Central

    Melnick, R L; Kohn, M C; Portier, C J

    1996-01-01

    Nongenotoxic carcinogens are chemicals that induce neoplasia without it or its metabolites reacting directly with DNA. Chemicals classified as nongenotoxic carcinogens have been assumed to act as tumor promoters and exhibit threshold tumor dose-responses. This is in contrast to genotoxic carcinogens that are DNA reactive, act as tumor initiators, and are assumed to exhibit proportional responses at low doses. In this perspective, we examine the basic tenets and utility of this classification for evaluating human cancer risk. Two classes of so-called nongenotoxic chemical carcinogens selected for review include cytotoxic agents that induce regenerative hyperplasia (trihalomethanes and inducers of alpha 2-microglobulin nephropathy) and agents that act via receptor-mediated mechanisms (peroxisome proliferators and dioxin). Major conclusions of this review include: a) many chemicals considered to be nongenotoxic carcinogens actually possess certain genotoxic activities, and limiting evaluations of carcinogenicity to their nongenotoxic effects can be misleading; b) some nongenotoxic activities may cause oxidative DNA damage and thereby initiate carcinogenesis; c) although cell replication is involved in tumor development, cytotoxicity and mitogenesis do not reliably predict carcinogenesis; d) a threshold tumor response is not an inevitable result of a receptor-mediated mechanism. There are insufficient data on the chemicals reviewed here to justify treating their carcinogenic effects in animals as irrelevant for evaluating human risk. Research findings that characterize the multiple mechanisms of chemical carcinogenesis should be used quantitatively to clarify human dose-response relationships, leading to improved scientifically based public health decisions. Excessive reliance on oversimplified classification schemes that do not consider all potential contributing effects of a toxicant can obscure the actual causal relationships between exposure and cancer outcome

  18. RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment of mixtures of environmental pollutants has become a subject of increasing public and regulatory concern. ypically, assessment of mixtures has been based on aggregating the risks associated with the individual constituents of the mixture. his approach does not con...

  19. Arsenic Mobilization from Historically Contaminated Mining Soils in a Continuously Operated Bioreactor: Implications for Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Rajpert, Liwia; Kolvenbach, Boris A; Ammann, Erik M; Hockmann, Kerstin; Nachtegaal, Maarten; Eiche, Elisabeth; Schäffer, Andreas; Corvini, Philippe Francois Xavier; Skłodowska, Aleksandra; Lenz, Markus

    2016-09-01

    Concentrations of soil arsenic (As) in the vicinity of the former Złoty Stok gold mine (Lower Silesia, southwest Poland) exceed 1000 μg g(-1) in the area, posing an inherent threat to neighboring bodies of water. This study investigated continuous As mobilization under reducing conditions for more than 3 months. In particular, the capacity of autochthonic microflora that live on natural organic matter as the sole carbon/electron source for mobilizing As was assessed. A biphasic mobilization of As was observed. In the first two months, As mobilization was mainly conferred by Mn dissolution despite the prevalence of Fe (0.1 wt % vs 5.4 for Mn and Fe, respectively) as indicated by multiple regression analysis. Thereafter, the sudden increase in aqueous As[III] (up to 2400 μg L(-1)) was attributed to an almost quintupling of the autochthonic dissimilatory As-reducing community (quantitative polymerase chain reaction). The aqueous speciation influenced by microbial activity led to a reduction of solid phase As species (X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy) and a change in the elemental composition of As hotspots (micro X-ray fluorescence mapping). The depletion of most natural dissolved organic matter and the fact that an extensive mobilization of As[III] occurred after two months raises concerns about the long-term stability of historically As-contaminated sites. PMID:27454004

  20. The Implications of Using a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Model for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Chensheng; Holbrook, Christina M.; Andres, Leo M.

    2010-01-01

    Background A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model would make it possible to simulate the dynamics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination (ADME) from different routes of exposures and, in theory, could be used to evaluate associations between exposures and biomarker measurements in blood or urine. Objective We used a PBPK model to predict urinary excretion of 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPY), the specific metabolite of chlorpyrifos (CPF), in young children. Methods We developed a child-specific PBPK model for CPF using PBPK models previously developed for rats and adult humans. Data used in the model simulation were collected from 13 children 3–6 years of age who participated in a cross-sectional pesticide exposure assessment study with repeated environmental and biological sampling. Results The model-predicted urinary TCPY excretion estimates were consistent with measured levels for 2 children with two 24-hr duplicate food samples that contained 350 and 12 ng/g of CPF, respectively. However, we found that the majority of model outputs underpredicted the measured urinary TCPY excretion. Conclusions We concluded that the potential measurement errors associated with the aggregate exposure measurements will probably limit the applicability of PBPK model estimates for interpreting urinary TCPY excretion and absorbed CPF dose from multiple sources of exposure. However, recent changes in organophosphorus (OP) use have shifted exposures from multipathways to dietary ingestion only. Thus, we concluded that the PBPK model is still a valuable tool for converting dietary pesticide exposures to absorbed dose estimates when the model input data are accurate estimates of dietary pesticide exposures. PMID:20056589

  1. New river flow maxima in Northern England, December 2015: Implications for flood hazard and risk assessment?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornton, James

    2016-04-01

    December 2015 was recently confirmed as the UK's wettest month on record by the Met Office. The most extreme precipitation was associated with three extratropical storm systems, named Desmond, Eva and Frank by the pilot Met Éireann/Met Office "Name our storms" project. In response, river levels reached new maxima at many locations across Northern England. Property damage was widespread, with at least 16,000 homes in England flooded. As with recent predecessors, these events reinvigorated public debate about the extent to which natural weather variability, anthropogenic climate change, increased urbanisation and/or other changes in catchment and river management might be responsible for apparent increases in flood frequency and severity. Change detection and attribution science is required to inform the debate, but is complicated by the short (typically ~ 35 years) river flow records available. Running a large number of coupled climate and hydrological model simulations is a powerful way of addressing the 'attribution question' with respect to the hypothesised climate forcing, for example, albeit one that remains largely in the research domain at present. In the meantime, flood-frequency analysis of available records still forms the bedrock of practice in the water industry; the results are used routinely in the design of new defence structures and in the development of flood hazard maps, amongst other things. In such analyses, it is usual for the records to be assumed stationary. In this context, the specific aims of this research are twofold: • To investigate whether, under the assumption of stationarity, the outputs of standard flood-frequency modelling methods (both 'single-site' and 'spatially pooled' methods) differ significantly depending on whether the new peaks are included or excluded, and; • To assess the sustainability of previous conclusions regarding trends in English river flows by reapplying simple statistical tests, such as the Mann-Kendal test

  2. High levels of mercury contamination in multiple media of the Carson River drainage basin of Nevada: implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gustin, M S; Taylor, G E; Leonard, T L

    1994-09-01

    Approximately 5.5 x 109 g (4.0 x 105) of mercury was discharged into the Carson River Drainage Basin of west-central Nevada during processing of the gold- and silver-rich Comstock ore in the late 1800s. For the past 13 decades, mercury has been redistributed throughout 500 km2 of the basin, and concentrations are some of the highest reported values in North America. This article documents the concentrations of mercury in the air, water, and substrate at both contaminated and noncontaminated sites within the basin and discusses the implications for risk assessment. At contaminated areas, the range of mercury concentrations are as follows: mill tailings, 3-1610 micrograms/g; unfiltered reservoir water, 53-591 ng/l; atmospheric vapor, 2-294 ng/m3. These values are three to five orders of magnitude greater than natural background. In all media at contaminated sites, concentrations are spatially variable, and air and water mercury concentrations vary temporally. The study are in situated in a natural mercuriferous belt, and regional background mercury concentrations in all environmental media are higher than values typically cited for natural background. As a mercury-contaminated site in North America, the Carson River Drainage Basin is unusual for a number of reasons, including its location in a natural mercuriferous belt, high and sustained levels of anthropogenic mercury inputs, long exposure time, aridity of the climate, and the riparian setting in an arid landscape, where biological activity is concentrated in the same areas that contain high levels of mercury in multiple media. PMID:9657709

  3. High levels of mercury contamination in multiple media of the Carson River Drainage Basin of Nevada: Implications for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Gustin, M.S.; Taylor, G.E. Jr.; Leonard, T.L. Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV )

    1994-09-01

    Approximately 5.5 x 10[sup 9] g (4.0 x 10[sup 5] l) of mercury was discharged into the Carson River Drainage Basin of west-central Nevada during processing of the gold- and silver-rich Comstock ore in the late 1800s. For the past 13 decades, mercury has been redistributed throughout 500 km[sup 2] of the basin, and concentrations are some of the highest reported values in North America. This article documents the concentration of mercury in the air, water, and substrate at both contaminated and noncontaminated sites within the basin and discusses the implications for risk assessment. At contaminated areas, the range of mercury concentrations are as follows: mill tailings, 3-1610 [mu]g/g; unfiltered reservoir water, 53-591 ng/l; atmospheric vapor, 2-294 ng/m[sup 3]. These values are three to five orders of magnitude greater than natural background. In all media at contaminated sites, concentrations are spatially variable, and air and water mercury concentrations vary temporally. The study area is situated in a natural mercuriferous belt, and regional background mercury concentrations in all environmental media are higher than values typically cited for natural background. As a mercury-contaminated site in North America, the Carson River Drainage Basin is unusual for a number of reasons, including its location in a natural mercuriferous belt, high and sustained levels of anthropogenic mercury inputs, long exposure time, aridity of the climate, and the riparian setting in an arid landscape, where biological activity is concentrated in the same areas that contain high levels of mercury in multiple media. 37 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  4. High levels of mercury contamination in multiple media of the Carson River drainage basin of Nevada: implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Gustin, M S; Taylor, G E; Leonard, T L

    1994-01-01

    Approximately 5.5 x 109 g (4.0 x 105) of mercury was discharged into the Carson River Drainage Basin of west-central Nevada during processing of the gold- and silver-rich Comstock ore in the late 1800s. For the past 13 decades, mercury has been redistributed throughout 500 km2 of the basin, and concentrations are some of the highest reported values in North America. This article documents the concentrations of mercury in the air, water, and substrate at both contaminated and noncontaminated sites within the basin and discusses the implications for risk assessment. At contaminated areas, the range of mercury concentrations are as follows: mill tailings, 3-1610 micrograms/g; unfiltered reservoir water, 53-591 ng/l; atmospheric vapor, 2-294 ng/m3. These values are three to five orders of magnitude greater than natural background. In all media at contaminated sites, concentrations are spatially variable, and air and water mercury concentrations vary temporally. The study are in situated in a natural mercuriferous belt, and regional background mercury concentrations in all environmental media are higher than values typically cited for natural background. As a mercury-contaminated site in North America, the Carson River Drainage Basin is unusual for a number of reasons, including its location in a natural mercuriferous belt, high and sustained levels of anthropogenic mercury inputs, long exposure time, aridity of the climate, and the riparian setting in an arid landscape, where biological activity is concentrated in the same areas that contain high levels of mercury in multiple media. Images Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 3. Figure 4. Figure 4. Figure 4. PMID:9657709

  5. Heart Attack Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... Pressure Tools & Resources Stroke More Heart Attack Risk Assessment Updated:May 31,2016 We're sorry, but ... Can You Recognize a Heart Attack? Quiz Risk Assessment Patient Information Sheets: Heart Attack Heart Attack Personal ...

  6. Teaching Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oravec, Jo Ann

    2000-01-01

    Risk management training cannot prevent hazards, but can help students learn to deal with them more efficiently. A risk-assessment and risk-communication approach to dealing with computer problems can be applied in the business classroom. (JOW)

  7. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  8. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule risk assessments determine the likelihood of finishing on time. Each task in a schedule has a varying degree of probability of being finished on time. A schedule risk assessment quantifies these probabilities by assigning values to each task. This viewgraph presentation contains a flow chart for conducting a schedule risk assessment, and profiles applicable several methods of data analysis.

  9. Cardiovascular risk assessment in diabetes mellitus: comparison of the general Framingham risk profile versus the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts in Arabs--clinical implications.

    PubMed

    Al-Lawati, Jawad A; Barakat, Mohammed N; Al-Lawati, Najla A; Al-Maskari, Masoud Y; Elsayed, Medhat K; Mikhailidis, Dimitri P; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim S

    2013-07-01

    We estimated the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and its clinical implications among 1 110 Omani patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) using 2 different CVD risk tools: the general Framingham risk profile (GFRP) and the joint World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts. The GFRP tool identified higher proportion of patients compared with joint WHO/ISH tool at 10-year CVD risk 10% to <20% and at 20% to <30%. At CVD risk ≥30%, both assessment tools identified similar proportions of patients (22% vs 24%; P=.120). Compared with WHO/ISH charts, the GFRP identified almost double the number of men eligible for aspirin treatment at CVD risk thresholds of ≥10% (86% vs 43%). In women, the proportions were, 66% and 45%, respectively. For statins, the figures were, 60% and 37%, for men and 28% and 36%, for women. In conclusion, the GFRP overestimates the number of patients eligible for primary prevention of CVD compared with the joint WHO/ISH method. PMID:22942129

  10. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  11. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries. PMID:19009454

  12. Assessment of possible ecological risks and hazards of transgenic fish with implications for other sexually reproducing organisms.

    PubMed

    Muir, William M; Howard, Richard D

    2002-04-01

    Transgenic technology is developing rapidly; however, consumers and environmentalists remain wary of its safety for use in agriculture. Research is needed to ensure the safe use of transgenic technology and thus increase consumer confidence. This goal is best accomplished by using a thorough, unbiased examination of risks associated with agricultural biotechnology. In this paper, we review discussion on risk and extend our approach to predict risk. We also distinguish between the risk and hazard of transgenic organisms in natural environments. We define transgene risk as the probability a transgene will spread into natural conspecific populations and define hazard as the probability of species extinction, displacement, or ecosystem disruption given that the transgene has spread. Our methods primarily address risk relative to two types of hazards: extinction which has a high hazard, and invasion which has an unknown level of hazard, similar to that of an introduced exotic species. Our method of risk assessment is unique in that we concentrate on the six major fitness components of an organism's life cycle to determine if transgenic individuals differ in survival or reproductive capacity from wild type. Our approach then combines estimates of the net fitness parameters into a mathematical model to determine the fate of the transgene and the affected wild population. We also review aspects of fish ecology and behavior that contribute to risk and examine combinations of net fitness parameters which can lead to invasion and extinction hazards. We describe three new ways that a transgene could result in an extinction hazard: (1) when the transgene increases male mating success but reduces daily adult viability, (2) when the transgene increases adult viability but reduces male fertility, and (3) when the transgene increases both male mating success and adult viability but reduces male fertility. The last scenario is predicted to cause rapid extinction, thus it poses an

  13. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  14. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  15. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    As ecological risk assessment evolves, it is moving beyond focus on single species toward addressing multiple species and their interactions, and from assessing effects of simple chemical toxicity to the cumulative impacts of multiple interacting chemical, physical, and biologica...

  16. Diabetic foot risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Woodbury, M Gail

    2016-05-01

    Diabetes is a serious chronic disease that results in foot complications for many people world-wide. In 2014, the World Health Organization estimated the global prevalence of diabetes in adults to be 9%. To ascertain the risk that an individual patient might develop a diabetic foot ulcer that could lead to an amputation, clinicians are strongly encouraged to perform a risk assessment. Monteiro-Soares and Dinis-Ribeiro have presented a new DIAbetic FOot Risk Assessment with the acronym DIAFORA. It is different from other risk assessments in that it predicts the risk of developing both diabetic foot ulcers and amputation specifically. The risk variables were derived by regression analysis based on a data set of 293 patients from a high-risk setting, a Hospital Diabetic Foot Clinic, who had diabetes and a diabetic foot ulcers. Clear descriptions of the risk variables are provided as well as sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the risk categories. As an added benefit, likelihood ratios are provided that will help clinicians determine the risk of amputation for individual patients. Having a risk assessment form is important for clinician use and examples exist. A question is raised about the effectiveness of risk assessment and how effectiveness might be determined. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26825436

  17. Verbal Instructions Acutely Affect Drop Vertical Jump Biomechanics--Implications for Athletic Performance and Injury Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Khuu, Steven; Musalem, Lindsay L; Beach, Tyson A C

    2015-10-01

    Biomechanical quantities acquired during the drop vertical jump (DVJ) are used in the assessment of athletic performance and injury risk. The objective was to examine the impact of different verbal instructions on spatiotemporal, kinematic, and kinetic variables commonly included in such assessments. Ten men and 10 women from local varsity and club volleyball, basketball, figure skating, and track and field teams volunteered to participate. The athletes performed DVJs after given instructions to minimize ground contact time (CT), maximize jump height (HT), and synchronously extend the lower extremity joints (EX). Between the CT, HT, and EX conditions, body segment and joint angles were compared together with characteristics of vertical ground reaction force (GRF), whole-body power output, stiffness, and center-of-mass displacement time histories. Verbal instructions were found to influence nearly all of the spatiotemporal, body segment and joint kinematic, and kinetic variables that were statistically analyzed. Particularly noteworthy was the finding that athletic performance indices (e.g., jump height, power output, vertical stiffness, and reactive strength index) and lower extremity injury risk markers (e.g., peak vertical GRF and frontal plane knee angle) were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) between the CT, HT, and EX conditions. The findings of this study suggest that verbal instructions should be controlled and/or clearly documented when using the DVJ to assess athletic performance potential and injury risk. Moreover, practitioners who devise performance enhancement and injury prevention strategies based on DVJ assessments are advised to consider that "coaching" or "cueing" during the task execution could impact conclusions drawn. PMID:26398699

  18. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  19. The use of belief-based probabilistic methods in volcanology: Scientists' views and implications for risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donovan, Amy; Oppenheimer, Clive; Bravo, Michael

    2012-12-01

    This paper constitutes a philosophical and social scientific study of expert elicitation in the assessment and management of volcanic risk on Montserrat during the 1995-present volcanic activity. It outlines the broader context of subjective probabilistic methods and then uses a mixed-method approach to analyse the use of these methods in volcanic crises. Data from a global survey of volcanologists regarding the use of statistical methods in hazard assessment are presented. Detailed qualitative data from Montserrat are then discussed, particularly concerning the expert elicitation procedure that was pioneered during the eruptions. These data are analysed and conclusions about the use of these methods in volcanology are drawn. The paper finds that while many volcanologists are open to the use of these methods, there are still some concerns, which are similar to the concerns encountered in the literature on probabilistic and determinist approaches to seismic hazard analysis.

  20. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  1. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  2. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  3. Distribution of Coronary Artery Calcium Scores by Framingham 10-Year Risk Strata in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA): Potential Implications for Coronary Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Okwuosa, Tochi M.; Greenland, Philip; Ning, Hongyan; Liu, Kiang; Bild, Diane E.; Burke, Gregory L.; Eng, John; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives By examining the distribution of CAC across FRS strata in a large, multi-ethnic, community-based sample of men and women, we sought to determine if lower risk persons could potentially benefit from CAC screening. Background The 10-year Framingham risk scores (FRS) and coronary artery calcium (CAC) are predictors of coronary heart disease (CHD). CAC ≥300 is associated with the highest risk for CHD even in low risk (FRS <10%) persons; however expert groups have suggested CAC screening only in intermediate risk (FRS 10–20%) groups. Methods We included 5660 MESA participants. The number needed to screen [number of people that need to be screened to detect one person with CAC above the specified cut-point (NNS)] was used to assess the yield of screening for CAC. CAC prevalence was compared across FRS strata using chi-square tests. Results CAC >0, ≥100 and ≥300 were present in 46.4%, 20.6% and 10.1% of participants, respectively. Prevalence and amount of CAC increased with higher FRS. CAC ≥300 was observed in 1.7% and 4.4% of those with FRS 0–2.5% and 2.6–5%, respectively (NNS =59.7 and 22.7). Likewise, CAC ≥300 was observed in 24% and 30% of those with FRS 15.1–20% and >20%, respectively (NNS =4.2 and 3.3). Trends were similar when stratified by age, gender and race/ethnicity. Conclusions Our study suggests that in very low risk individuals (FRS ≤5%), the yield of screening and probability of identifying persons with clinically significant levels of CAC is low, but becomes greater in low and intermediate risk persons (FRS 5.1–20%). PMID:21527159

  4. Indoor phthalate concentration in residential apartments in Chongqing, China: Implications for preschool children's exposure and risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bu, Zhongming; Zhang, Yinping; Mmereki, Daniel; Yu, Wei; Li, Baizhan

    2016-02-01

    Six phthalates - dimethyl phthalate (DMP), diethyl phthalate (DEP), di(isobutyl) phthalate (DiBP), di(n-butyl) phthalate (DnBP), butyl benzyl phthalate (BBzP) and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) - in indoor gas-phase and dust samples were measured in thirty residential apartments for the first time in Chongqing, China. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to estimate preschool children's exposure via inhalation, non-dietary ingestion and dermal absorption based on gas-phase and dust concentrations. Risk assessment was evaluated by comparing the modeled exposure doses with child-specific benchmarks specified in California's Proposition 65. The detection frequency for all the targeted phthalates was more than 80% except for BBzP. DMP was the most predominant compound in the gas-phase (median = 0.91 μg/m3 and 0.82 μg/m3 in living rooms and bedrooms, respectively), and DEHP was the most predominant compound in the dust samples (median = 1543 μg/g and 1450 μg/g in living rooms and bedrooms, respectively). Correlation analysis suggests that indoor DiBP and DnBP might come from the same emission sources. The simulations showed that the median DEHP daily intake was 3.18-4.28 μg/day/kg-bw in all age groups, suggesting that it was the greatest of the targeted phthalates. The risk assessment indicated that the exposure doses of DnBP and DEHP exceeded the child-specific benchmarks in more than 90% of preschool children in Chongqing. Therefore, from a children's health perspective, efforts should focus on controlling indoor phthalate concentrations and exposures.

  5. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Grego

    2004-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) determines the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. This viewgraph presentation introduces the prerequisites, probability distribution curves, special conditions, calculations, and results analysis for SRA.

  6. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  7. EPA's neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines.

    PubMed

    Boyes, W K; Dourson, M L; Patterson, J; Tilson, H A; Sette, W F; MacPhail, R C; Li, A A; O'Donoghue, J L

    1997-12-01

    The proposed Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment Guidelines (U.S. EPA, 1995c Fed. Reg. 60(192), 52032-52056) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were the subject of a workshop at the 1997 Meeting of the Society of Toxicology. The workshop considered the role of guidelines in the risk assessment process, the primary features, scientific basis, and implications of the guidelines for EPA program offices, as well as for industrial neurotoxicologists from the perspectives of both pesticides and toxic substances regulation. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 1983, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process) established a framework for distinguishing risk management from risk assessment, the latter being the result of integrating hazard identification, hazard characterization, and exposure assessment data. The guidelines are intended to establish operating principles that will be used when examining data in a risk assessment context. The proposed neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines provide a conceptual framework for deciding whether or not a chemically induced effect can be considered to be evidence of neurotoxicity. Topics in the proposed guidelines include structural and functional effects, dose-response and -duration considerations, and relationships between effects. Among the issues that must be considered are the multiplicity of chemical effects, the levels of biological organization in the nervous system, and the tests, measurements, and protocols used. Judgment of the adversity of an effect depends heavily on the amount and types of data available. The attribution of a chemically induced effect to an action on the nervous system depends on several factors such as the quality of the study, the nature of the outcome, dose-response and time-response relationships, and the possible involvement of nonneural factors. The guidelines will also serve as a reference for those conducting neurotoxicity testing, as well as establish a

  8. Variations in flood magnitude-effect relations and the implications for flood risk assessment and river management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hooke, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    In spite of major physical impacts from large floods, present river management rarely takes into account the possible dynamics and variation in magnitude-impact relations over time in flood risk mapping and assessment nor incorporates feedback effects of changes into modelling. Using examples from the literature and from field measurements over several decades in two contrasting environments, a semi-arid region and a humid-temperate region, temporal variations in channel response to flood events are evaluated. The evidence demonstrates how flood physical impacts can vary at a location over time. The factors influencing that variation on differing timescales are examined. The analysis indicates the importance of morphological changes and trajectory of adjustment in relation to thresholds, and that trends in force or resistance can take place over various timescales, altering those thresholds. Sediment supply can also change with altered connectivity upstream and changes in state of hillslope-channel coupling. It demonstrates that seasonal timing and sequence of events can affect response, particularly deposition through sediment supply. Duration can also have a significant effect and modify the magnitude relation. Lack of response or deposits in some events can mean that flood frequency using such evidence is underestimated. A framework for assessment of both past and possible future changes is provided which emphasises the uncertainty and the inconstancy of the magnitude-impact relation and highlights the dynamic factors and nature of variability that should be considered in sustainable management of river channels.

  9. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  10. Processes influencing chemical biomagnification and trophic magnification factors in aquatic ecosystems: Implications for chemical hazard and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Mackay, Donald; Celsie, Alena K D; Arnot, Jon A; Powell, David E

    2016-07-01

    Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) and bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) are widely used in scientific and regulatory programs to assess chemical hazards. There is increasing interest in also using biomagnification factors (BMFs) and trophic magnification factors (TMFs) for this purpose, especially for highly hydrophobic substances that may reach high concentrations in predatory species that occupy high trophic level positions in ecosystems. Measurements of TMFs in specific ecosystems can provide invaluable confirmation that biomagnification or biodilution has occurred across food webs, but their use in a regulatory context can be controversial because of uncertainties related to the reliability of measurements and their regulatory interpretation. The objective of this study is to explore some of the recognized uncertainties and dependencies in field BMFs and TMFs. This is accomplished by compiling a set of three simple food web models (pelagic, demersal and combined pelagic-demersal) consisting of up to seven species to simulate field BMFs and TMFs and to explore their dependences on hydrophobicity (expressed as log KOW), rates of biotransformation and growth, sediment-water fugacity ratios, and extent of food web omnivory and issues that arise when chemical concentration gradients exist in aquatic ecosystems. It is shown that empirical TMFs can be highly sensitive to these factors, thus the use of TMFs in a regulatory context must recognize these sensitivities. It is suggested that simple but realistic evaluative food web models could be used to extend BCF and BAF assessments to include BMFs and TMFs, thus providing a tool to address bioaccumulation hazard and the potential risk of exposures to elevated chemical concentrations in organisms at high trophic levels. PMID:27038905

  11. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  12. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  13. In vitro metabolism of the fungicide and environmental contaminant trans-bromuconazole and implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Mazur, Christopher S; Kenneke, John F; Tebes-Stevens, Caroline; Okino, Miles S; Lipscomb, John C

    2007-07-01

    trans-Bromuconazole is a chiral chemical representative of a class of triazole derivatives known to inhibit specific fungal cytochrome P-450 (CYP) reactions. Kinetic measurements and delineation of metabolic pathways for triazole chemicals within in vitro hepatic microsomes are needed for accurate risk assessment and predictive in vivo physiological modeling. The studies described here were conducted with rat liver microsomes to determine Michaelis-Menten saturation kinetic parameters (Vmax and KM) for trans-bromuconazole using both substrate depletion and product formation reaction velocities. Kinetic parameters determined for trans-bromuconazole depletion at varying protein levels incubated at physiological temperature 37 degrees C resulted in a KM value of 1.69 microM and a Vmax value of 1398 pmol/min/mg protein. The concomitant linear formation of two metabolites identified using liquid chromatography/time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC/MS-TOF) and LC-MS/MS indicated hydroxylation of the trans-bromuconazole dichlorophenyl ring moiety. KM values determined for the hydroxylated metabolites were 0.87 and 1.03 microM, with Vmax values of 449 and 694 pmol/min/mg protein, respectively. Chemical inhibition assays and studies conducted with individual purified human recombinant enzymes indicated the CYP3A subfamily was primarily responsible for biotransformation of the parent substrate. Additionally, trans-bromuconazole was found to undergo stereoselective metabolism as evidenced by a change in the enantiomeric ratio (trans-/trans+) with respect to time. PMID:17573638

  14. Public Health Implications and Risk Factors Assessment of Mycobacterium bovis Infections among Abattoir Personnel in Bauchi State, Nigeria

    PubMed Central

    Sa'idu, A. S.; Okolocha, E. C.; Dzikwi, A. A.; Gamawa, A. A.; Ibrahim, S.; Kwaga, J. K. P.; Usman, A.; Maigari, S. A.

    2015-01-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious and contagious zoonotic disease of domestic animals, wild animals, and humans. It poses a public health threat and economic losses due to abattoir condemnation of infected carcasses during meat inspection of slaughtered animals. Bovine tuberculosis is widespread in Africa including Nigeria affecting both cattle and humans, particularly Northern Nigeria. A prospective survey was conducted from June to August 2013 in the three Zonal abattoirs of Bauchi State, Nigeria. A total of 150 structured close-ended questionnaires were administered to abattoir personnel to assess their level of awareness of bTB. This study was aimed at determining the level of public health awareness, attitude, and practices of abattoir workers of bTB in Bauchi State, Nigeria. There was a statistically significant association between respondents' awareness of bTB and their occupational status, age, and duration of exposure to cattle carcasses (P < 0.05); the odds of being aware of bTB were 9.4, 7.3, and 2.1, respectively. In conclusion, these demonstrate the urgent need for public health authorities to intervene in bTB control. The risk of bTB transmission as indicated by the personnel's practices and awareness levels in Bauchi State could be prevented through the use of protective clothing (PPEs). PMID:26464954

  15. Public Health Implications and Risk Factors Assessment of Mycobacterium bovis Infections among Abattoir Personnel in Bauchi State, Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Sa'idu, A S; Okolocha, E C; Dzikwi, A A; Gamawa, A A; Ibrahim, S; Kwaga, J K P; Usman, A; Maigari, S A

    2015-01-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious and contagious zoonotic disease of domestic animals, wild animals, and humans. It poses a public health threat and economic losses due to abattoir condemnation of infected carcasses during meat inspection of slaughtered animals. Bovine tuberculosis is widespread in Africa including Nigeria affecting both cattle and humans, particularly Northern Nigeria. A prospective survey was conducted from June to August 2013 in the three Zonal abattoirs of Bauchi State, Nigeria. A total of 150 structured close-ended questionnaires were administered to abattoir personnel to assess their level of awareness of bTB. This study was aimed at determining the level of public health awareness, attitude, and practices of abattoir workers of bTB in Bauchi State, Nigeria. There was a statistically significant association between respondents' awareness of bTB and their occupational status, age, and duration of exposure to cattle carcasses (P < 0.05); the odds of being aware of bTB were 9.4, 7.3, and 2.1, respectively. In conclusion, these demonstrate the urgent need for public health authorities to intervene in bTB control. The risk of bTB transmission as indicated by the personnel's practices and awareness levels in Bauchi State could be prevented through the use of protective clothing (PPEs). PMID:26464954

  16. Inter-compartmental transport of organophosphate and pyrethroid pesticides in South China: implications for a regional risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Li, Huizhen; Wei, Yanli; Lydy, Michael J; You, Jing

    2014-07-01

    The dynamic flux of an organophosphate and four pyrethroid pesticides was determined in an air-(soil)-water-sediment system based on monitoring data from Guangzhou, China. The total air-water flux, including air-water gaseous exchange and atmospheric deposition, showed deposition from air to water for chlorpyrifos, bifenthrin and cypermethrin, but volatilization for lambda-cyhalothrin and permethrin. The transport of the pesticides from overlying water to sediment suggested that sediment acted as a sink for the pesticides. Additionally, distinct annual atmospheric depositional fluxes between legacy and current-use pesticides suggested the role of consumer usage in their transport throughout the system. Finally, pesticide toxicity was estimated from annual air-water-sediment flux within an urban stream in Guangzhou. A dynamic flux-based risk assessment indicated that inter-compartmental transport of chlorpyrifos decreased its atmospheric exposure, but had little influence on its aquatic toxicity. Instead, water-to-sediment transport of pyrethroids increased their sediment toxicity, which was supported by previously reported toxicity data. PMID:24704807

  17. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  18. Human factors and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Minhali, A.

    1996-11-01

    A case study was presented in the 1994 Abu Dhabi International Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC, 94) which discussed the importance of investigating human factors in the design of a high integrity protection system (HIPS) to be installed on an offshore high pressure gas platform, (SPE reference ADSPE 80). This paper will follow up on the design changes, installation and operation of the HIPS with emphasis on practical implications as a result of improper integration of human factors in the system reliability and risk assessment studies.

  19. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries. PMID:20087690

  20. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  1. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  2. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  3. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-03-28

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment. PMID:26666966

  4. Acarologic risk of exposure to Borrelia burgdorferi spirochaetes: long-term evaluations in north-western California, with implications for Lyme borreliosis risk-assessment models.

    PubMed

    Eisen, L; Eisen, R J; Chang, C-C; Mun, J; Lane, R S

    2004-03-01

    Over a 5-year period (1997-2001) the population densities of Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls (Acari: Ixodidae) nymphs infected with spirochaetes of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) were evaluated in areas of 2000 ha at two localities (CHR, nine sites; HREC, seven sites) 25 km apart in Mendocino County, north-western California. The 5-year median density of infected nymphs was significantly higher at CHR than at HREC (0.51 vs. 0.09 per 100 m(2) and site-specific yearly densities exceeding one infected nymph per 100 m2 were 10-fold more likely to occur at CHR than at HREC. The importance of long-term data in acarologic risk assessment was demonstrated by significantly higher median yearly densities of infected nymphs at CHR from 1997 to 1999, whereas both areas had similar densities during 2000-2001. Overall, the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis in North America, B. burgdorferi Johnson et al. sensu stricto (s.s.) accounted for 76% of 46 genetically characterized B. burgdorferi s.l. infections from I. pacificus nymphs. Tremendous variability in acarologic risk was recorded within both areas: yearly densities of infected nymphs varied 11-97-fold between sites at CHR and 8-30-fold at HREC. Part of this variation could be explained by environmental traits, most notably deer usage. However, correlations between environmental factors and density of infected nymphs (for CHR and HREC combined) did not necessarily apply when these areas were considered separately. Thus, a Lyme borreliosis ecology model developed in one of these areas needs testing in the other area. PMID:15009444

  5. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  6. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  7. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  8. Experimental derivation of relative biological effectiveness of A-bomb neutrons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sasaki, M S; Nomura, T; Ejima, Y; Utsumi, H; Endo, S; Saito, I; Itoh, T; Hoshi, M

    2008-07-01

    Epidemiological data on the health effects of A-bomb radiation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide the framework for setting limits for radiation risk and radiological protection. However, uncertainty remains in the equivalent dose, because it is generally believed that direct derivation of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons from the epidemiological data on the survivors is difficult. To solve this problem, an alternative approach has been taken. The RBE of polyenergetic neutrons was determined for chromosome aberration formation in human lymphocytes irradiated in vitro, compared with published data for tumor induction in experimental animals, and validated using epidemiological data from A-bomb survivors. The RBE of fission neutrons was dependent on dose but was independent of the energy spectrum. The same RBE regimen was observed for lymphocyte chromosome aberrations and tumors in mice and rats. Used as a weighting factor for A-bomb survivors, this RBE system was superior in eliminating the city difference in chromosome aberration frequencies and cancer mortality. The revision of the equivalent dose of A-bomb radiation using DS02 weighted by this RBE system reduces the cancer risk by a factor of 0.7 compared with the current estimates using DS86, with neutrons weighted by a constant RBE of 10. PMID:18582156

  9. Low dose mixture effects of endocrine disrupters and their implications for regulatory thresholds in chemical risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Kortenkamp, Andreas

    2014-12-01

    Today's chemical exposures are characterised by a widely spread blanket of contamination composed of myriads of chemicals, many of them endocrine disrupters, all at rather low levels. With their focus on considering single chemicals one by one, the approaches used by regulatory bodies worldwide for safety assessments of chemicals cannot keep up with these pollution patterns. A substantial challenge lies in the assessment of combination effects from large numbers of endocrine disrupters and other chemicals, all at low doses. We retrace the development of experimental and conceptual approaches required for assessing low dose mixtures, with an emphasis on work with endocrine disrupting chemicals. We find that nearly 20 years of research has produced good evidence for combination effects at levels around experimental thresholds. One obstacle in deciding on the relevance of this evidence is incomplete information about the range of endocrine-disrupting chemicals that make up combined exposures. These knowledge gaps need to be closed urgently, as is currently discussed under the heading of exposome research. PMID:25244397

  10. Physicochemical characteristics of aerosol particles generated during the milling of beryllium silicate ores: implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Stefaniak, Aleksandr B; Chipera, Steve J; Day, Gregory A; Sabey, Phil; Dickerson, Robert M; Sbarra, Deborah C; Duling, Mathew G; Lawrence, Robert B; Stanton, Marcia L; Scripsick, Ronald C

    2008-01-01

    Inhalation of beryllium dusts generated during milling of ores and cutting of beryl-containing gemstones is associated with development of beryllium sensitization and low prevalence of chronic beryllium disease (CBD). Inhalation of beryllium aerosols generated during primary beryllium production and machining of the metal, alloys, and ceramics are associated with sensitization and high rates of CBD, despite similar airborne beryllium mass concentrations among these industries. Understanding the physicochemical properties of exposure aerosols may help to understand the differential immunopathologic mechanisms of sensitization and CBD and lead to more biologically relevant exposure standards. Properties of aerosols generated during the industrial milling of bertrandite and beryl ores were evaluated. Airborne beryllium mass concentrations among work areas ranged from 0.001 microg/m(3) (beryl ore grinding) to 2.1 microg/m(3) (beryl ore crushing). Respirable mass fractions of airborne beryllium-containing particles were < 20% in low-energy input operation areas (ore crushing, hydroxide product drumming) and > 80% in high-energy input areas (beryl melting, beryl grinding). Particle specific surface area decreased with processing from feedstock ores to drumming final product beryllium hydroxide. Among work areas, beryllium was identified in three crystalline forms: beryl, poorly crystalline beryllium oxide, and beryllium hydroxide. In comparison to aerosols generated by high-CBD risk primary production processes, aerosol particles encountered during milling had similar mass concentrations, generally lower number concentrations and surface area, and contained no identifiable highly crystalline beryllium oxide. One possible explanation for the apparent low prevalence of CBD among workers exposed to beryllium mineral dusts may be that characteristics of the exposure material do not contribute to the development of lung burdens sufficient for progression from sensitization to

  11. Diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione exposures associated with cigarette smoking: implications for risk assessment of food and flavoring workers.

    PubMed

    Pierce, Jennifer S; Abelmann, Anders; Spicer, Lauren J; Adams, Rebecca E; Finley, Brent L

    2014-05-01

    Diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione inhalation have been suggested as causes of severe respiratory disease, including bronchiolitis obliterans, in food/flavoring manufacturing workers. Both compounds are present in many food items, tobacco, and other consumer products, but estimates of exposures associated with the use of these goods are scant. A study was conducted to characterize exposures to diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione associated with cigarette smoking. The yields (μg/cigarette) of diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione in mainstream (MS) cigarette smoke were evaluated for six tobacco products under three smoking regimens (ISO, Massachusetts Department of Public Health, and Health Canada Intense) using a standard smoking machine. Mean diacetyl concentrations in MS smoke ranged from 250 to 361 ppm for all tobacco products and smoking regimens, and mean cumulative exposures associated with 1 pack-year ranged from 1.1 to 1.9 ppm-years. Mean 2,3-pentanedione concentrations in MS smoke ranged from 32.2 to 50.1 ppm, and mean cumulative exposures associated with 1 pack-year ranged from 0.14 to 0.26 ppm-years. We found that diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione exposures from cigarette smoking far exceed occupational exposures for most food/flavoring workers who smoke. This suggests that previous claims of a significant exposure-response relationship between diacetyl inhalation and respiratory disease in food/flavoring workers were confounded, because none of the investigations considered or quantified the non-occupational diacetyl exposure from cigarette smoke, yet all of the cohorts evaluated had considerable smoking histories. Further, because smoking has not been shown to be a risk factor for bronchiolitis obliterans, our findings are inconsistent with claims that diacetyl and/or 2,3-pentanedione exposure are risk factors for this disease. PMID:24635357

  12. Volcanic ashfall accumulation and loading on gutters and pitched roofs from laboratory empirical experiments: Implications for risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hampton, S. J.; Cole, J. W.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T. M.; Broom, S.

    2015-10-01

    Volcanic ash load is dependent on the migration and accumulation of ash on roofing surfaces and guttering, of which limited research has been conducted. This study investigates this knowledge gap through the empirical experimental testing of volcanic ash on variably pitched metal sheet roofs with modern PVC gutter systems, highlighting the relative importance of accumulation, migration, remobilization, saturation, and subsequent load. A testing rig delivered ash onto variably pitched roofs (pitches 15°, 25°, 30°, 35°, and 45°) with two 45° tests involving a wet surface with subsequent ashfall, and the second of ashfall with periods of wetting, followed by wetting until failure. In testing, dry ash on a dry roof accumulates at pitches up to 35°, above this pitch the percentage of ash accumulating reduces with greater percentages infilling guttering and or lost to the ground. With the introduction of a wet roof surface at 45° pitch, adherence of dry ash greatly increases, increasing accumulated ash thickness as compared to dry tests from 8% to 38%. For testing involving periods of wetting at 45° roof pitch, accumulation percentages further increased to 50%. Ash migrating from the roof surface filled guttering more rapidly at greater pitches, which once full resulted in further migrating ash to spill over the front or back gutter lips. Collapse of guttering did not occur during testing, but deformation and bracket detachment did occur at loads > 1 kPa. This study provides data on load calculations on roofing and PVC guttering through the quantification and utilization of relationships between ash fate, pitch, and the influence of water, in the development of two scenarios for both roof and gutter. These two scenarios then enable the estimation of ash accumulation and thus the load and collapse thresholds for roof and gutter at different roof pitch, which could be adopted for volcanic risk modeling or risk management.

  13. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established.

  14. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG&G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers` needs and the product have been established.

  15. Dietary patterns among the Metro Atlanta Cohort: implications for population-based longitudinal dietary pesticide exposure and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Riederer, Anne M; Pearson, Melanie A; Lu, Chensheng

    2011-01-01

    Characterizing dietary consumption patterns is critical to dietary pesticide exposure assessment. We compared consumption patterns between adults (age 18-60) in the Metro Atlanta Cohort (MAC), a longitudinal study of pesticide exposure among Atlanta residents, and US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) adults. We focused on foods commonly eaten by US adults and foods likely to contain certain pesticide residues. MAC participants provided consumption data for 6 days per month for 1 year using a web-based data collection tool. We defined "percent eaters" as the percent of participants who reported eating a particular food in 24 h. We computed the NHANES weighted percent eaters and 95% confidence limits (CLs) using the 24-h dietary recall data. We calculated the MAC percent eaters for each sampling day and the percent of days this number fell below, within, or above the NHANES 95% CLs. We also re-sampled the MAC percent eaters across sampling days to find whether the resulting distribution resembled the NHANES estimate, and used the Kruskal-Wallis test to evaluate whether season affected the number of MAC eaters of a particular food on a given sampling day. In general, across all sampling days, a greater proportion of MAC participants reported eating banana, broccoli, cream, grapes, lettuce, onion, peach, pear, peas, strawberries, string beans, and tomatoes than the national estimate, whereas the proportion of apple, spinach, ketchup and white bread/roll eaters was similar, and the proportion of milk drinkers was lower. Season predicted the number of MAC peach and strawberry eaters but not other foods. The data show how a higher proportion of Atlanta adults may eat certain foods (e.g., peaches in summer or strawberries in spring) than the national average depending on season or other factors. An exposure assessment that ignored this difference could underestimate dietary pesticide intakes. PMID:20354565

  16. Assessment of relative bioavailability of heavy metals in soil using in vivo mouse model and its implication for risk assessment compared with bioaccessibility using in vitro assay.

    PubMed

    Kang, Yuan; Pan, Weijian; Liang, Siyun; Li, Ning; Zeng, Lixuan; Zhang, Qiuyun; Luo, Jiwen

    2016-10-01

    There is limited study to simultaneously determine the relative bioavailability of heavy metals such as Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr(VI), and Ni in soil samples. In the present study, the bioaccessibility of heavy metals using in vitro assay was compared with the relative bioavailability of heavy metals using in vivo mouse model. The bioaccessibility of heavy metals ranged from 9.05 ± 0.97 % (Cr) to 42.8 ± 3.52 % (Cd). The uptake profile of heavy metals in soil and solution samples in mouse revealed that the uptake kinetics could be fitted to a two-compartment model. The relative bioavailability of heavy meals ranged from 34.8 ± 7.0 % (Ni) to 131 ± 20.3 % (Cu). Poor correlation between bioaccessibility and relative bioavailability of heavy metals was observed (r (2) = 0.11, p > 0.05). The relative bioavailability of heavy metals was significantly higher than the bioaccessibility of heavy metals (p < 0.05). The present study indicated that the in vitro digestion method should be carefully employed in risk assessment. PMID:26603169

  17. Toxicity of binary mixtures of metals and pyrethroid insecticides to Daphnia magna Straus. Implications for multi-substance risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Barata, Carlos; Baird, D J; Nogueira, A J A; Soares, A M V M; Riva, M C

    2006-06-10

    Two different concepts, termed concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA), describe general relationships between the effects of single substances and their corresponding mixtures allowing calculation of an expected mixture toxicity on the basis of known toxicities of the mixture components. Both concepts are limited to cases in which all substances in a mixture influence the same experimental endpoint, and are usually tested against a "fixed ratio design" where the mixture ratio is kept constant throughout the studies and the overall concentration of the mixture is systematically varied. With this design, interaction among toxic components across different mixture ratios and endpoints (i.e. lethal versus sublethal) is not assessed. In this study lethal and sublethal (feeding) responses of Daphnia magna individuals to single and binary combinations of similarly and dissimilarly acting chemicals including the metals (cadmium, copper) and the pyrethroid insecticides (lambda-cyhalothrin and deltamethrin) were assayed using a composite experimental design to test for interactions among toxic components across mixture effect levels, mixture ratios, lethal and sublethal toxic effects. To account for inter-experiment response variability, in each binary mixture toxicity assay the toxicity of the individual mixture constituents was also assessed. Model adequacy was then evaluated comparing the slopes and elevations of predicted versus observed mixture toxicity curves with those estimated for the individual components. Model predictive abilities changed across endpoints. The IA concept was able to predict accurately mixture toxicities of dissimilarly acting chemicals for lethal responses, whereas the CA concept did so in three out of four pairings for feeding response, irrespective of the chemical mode of action. Interaction effects across mixture effect levels, evidenced by crossing slopes, were only observed for the binary mixture Cd and Cu for lethal effects

  18. Potential for accidents in a nuclear power plant: probabilistic risk assessment, applied statistical decision theory, and implications of such considerations to mathematics education

    SciTech Connect

    Dios, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    This dissertation focuses upon the field of probabilistic risk assessment and its development. It investigates the development of probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear engineering. To provide background for its development, the related areas of population dynamics (demography), epidemiology and actuarial science are studied by presenting information upon how risk has been viewed in these areas over the years. A second major problem involves presenting an overview of the mathematical models related to risk analysis to mathematics educators and making recommendations for presenting this theory in classes of probability and statistics for mathematics and engineering majors at the undergraduate and graduate levels.

  19. Breast density: clinical implications and assessment methods.

    PubMed

    Winkler, Nicole S; Raza, Sughra; Mackesy, Meaghan; Birdwell, Robyn L

    2015-01-01

    Breast density assessment is an important component of the screening mammography report and conveys information to referring clinicians about mammographic sensitivity and the relative risk for developing breast cancer. These topics have gained substantial attention because of recent legislation in several states that requires patients to be informed of dense breast tissue and the potential for associated breast cancer risk and decreased mammographic sensitivity. Because of the considerable implications of diagnosing a woman with dense breast tissue, radiologists should strive to be as consistent as possible when assessing breast density. Commonly used methods of breast density assessment range from subjective visual estimation to quantitative calculations of area and volume density percentages made with complex computer algorithms. The basic principles of currently available commercial methods of calculating fibroglandular density are described and illustrated. There is no criterion standard for determining breast density, but understanding the pros and cons of the various assessment methods will allow radiologists to make informed decisions. Radiologists should understand the basic factors involved in breast density assessment, the changes related to density assessment described in the fifth edition of the American College of Radiology Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) lexicon, and the capabilities of currently available software. Online supplemental material is available for this article. PMID:25763719

  20. Kinetics, Mechanisms and Stereoselective Metabolism of 1,2,4-Triazole Fungicides and the Implications for Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    A major uncertainty in risk assessment is determining the exposure of a chemical stressor to a target organism; a confounding issue is the transformation of the chemical inside the target organism. Increasingly, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming the...

  1. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data.

  2. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  3. Multivariate analysis of the impacts of the turbine fuel JP-4 in a microcosm toxicity test with implications for the evaluation of ecosystem dynamics and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Landis, W G; Matthews, R A; Markiewicz, A J; Matthews, G B

    1993-12-01

    , with implications for biomonitoring schemes and ecological risk assessments. PMID:24201737

  4. Assessing Threats of School Violence: Implications for Counselors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daniels, Jeffrey A.

    2002-01-01

    The author describes important considerations when assessing students' threats made at schools. In a recent article, M. Reddy et al. (2001) presented 4 approaches to assessing the risk of school violence. They submitted important issues and problems with 3 commonly used approaches and suggested a 4th approach as an alternative. Implications for…

  5. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  6. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  7. EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT: INPUT INTO RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The validity of a risk assessment can be no better than that of the exposure assessment upon which it is based. he general paucity of relevant exposure data, combined with the limited appreciation by most risk assessors of the critical dimensions and metrics of exposure, often le...

  8. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  10. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  11. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. PMID:24913749

  12. Topographical Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP seniormore » management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.« less

  13. Structure Segmentation and Transfer Faults in the Marcellus Shale, Clearfield County, Pennsylvania: Implications for Gas Recovery Efficiency and Risk Assessment Using 3D Seismic Attribute Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Emily D.

    The Marcellus Shale has become an important unconventional gas reservoir in the oil and gas industry. Fractures within this organic-rich black shale serve as an important component of porosity and permeability useful in enhancing production. Horizontal drilling is the primary approach for extracting hydrocarbons in the Marcellus Shale. Typically, wells are drilled perpendicular to natural fractures in an attempt to intersect fractures for effective hydraulic stimulation. If the fractures are contained within the shale, then hydraulic fracturing can enhance permeability by further breaking the already weakened rock. However, natural fractures can affect hydraulic stimulations by absorbing and/or redirecting the energy away from the wellbore, causing a decreased efficiency in gas recovery, as has been the case for the Clearfield County, Pennsylvania study area. Estimating appropriate distances away from faults and fractures, which may limit hydrocarbon recovery, is essential to reducing the risk of injection fluid migration along these faults. In an attempt to mitigate the negative influences of natural fractures on hydrocarbon extraction within the Marcellus Shale, fractures were analyzed through the aid of both traditional and advanced seismic attributes including variance, curvature, ant tracking, and waveform model regression. Through the integration of well log interpretations and seismic data, a detailed assessment of structural discontinuities that may decrease the recovery efficiency of hydrocarbons was conducted. High-quality 3D seismic data in Central Pennsylvania show regional folds and thrusts above the major detachment interval of the Salina Salt. In addition to the regional detachment folds and thrusts, cross-regional, northwest-trending lineaments were mapped. These lineaments may pose a threat to hydrocarbon productivity and recovery efficiency due to faults and fractures acting as paths of least resistance for induced hydraulic stimulation fluids

  14. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

  15. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  16. Application of Ecosystem Models to Assess Environmental Drivers of Mosquito Abundance and Virus Transmission Risk and Associated Public Health Implications of Climate and Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melton, F.; Barker, C.; Park, B.; Reisen, W.; Michaelis, A.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Hiatt, S.; Nemani, R.

    2008-12-01

    The NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) is a modeling framework that integrates satellite observations, meteorological observations, and ancillary data to support monitoring and modeling of ecosystem and land surface conditions in near real-time. TOPS provides spatially continuous gridded estimates of a suite of measurements describing environmental conditions, and these data products are currently being applied to support the development of new models capable of forecasting estimated mosquito abundance and transmission risk for mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. We present results from the modeling analyses, describe their incorporation into the California Vectorborne Disease Surveillance System, and describe possible implications of projected climate and land use change for patterns in mosquito abundance and transmission risk for West Nile virus in California.

  17. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  18. Perceived Academic Performance, Self-Esteem and Locus of Control as Indicators of Need for Assessment of Adolescent Suicide Risk: Implications for Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, Graham; Richardson, Angela S.; Bergen, Helen A.; Roeger, Leigh; Allison, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    Introduction: There is currently a need for research into indicators that could be used by non-clinical professionals working with young people, to inform the need for referral for further clinical assessment of those at risk of suicide. Method: Participants of this repeated measures longitudinal study, were 2603, 2485, and 2246 school students…

  19. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  20. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factor (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. Risk in Infancy: Origins and Implications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopp, Claire B.; Kaler, Sandra R.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses the origins of biological risks and their potential consequences for prepregnancy, prenatal, perinatal, and postnatal periods. Presents epidemiological data. Addresses issues of assessment of infant development and interventions provided for infants whose development is at risk. Highlights goals for prevention. A nationally derived data…

  3. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  4. REGIONAL SCALE COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...

  5. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  6. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  7. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  8. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  9. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  10. Risk assessment in international operations.

    PubMed

    Stricklin, Daniela L

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umeå has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently. PMID:18325560

  11. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  12. Caries management by risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2013-02-01

    Caries disease is multifactorial. Whether caries disease will be expressed and damage dental hard tissue is dependent on the patient's own unique make-up of pathogenic risk factors and protective factors. Objectives This manuscript will review the science of managing caries disease based on assessing caries risk. Methods The caries balance/imbalance model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult will illustrate how treatment options can be based on caries risk. Results Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply there is currently only one correct way this can be achieved, rather are used in this manuscript as examples only. Conclusions It is important to have the forms and protocols simple and easy to understand when implementing caries management by risk assessment into clinical practice. The science of CAMBRA based on the caries balance/imbalance model was reviewed and an example protocol was presented. PMID:24916678

  13. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Each source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-...

  14. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  15. ADVANCED PESTICIDE RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The use of herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and growth regulating chemicals is necessary in modern agriculture, silviculture, and public health vector control operations. The task for environmental risk assessment is to delineate the food chain contamination and ecological v...

  16. RISK ASSESSMENT OF WASTEWATER DISINFECTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    A risk assessment data base is presented for several waste-water disinfection alternatives, including chlorination, ozonation, chlorination/dechlorination, and ultraviolet radiation. The data base covers hazards and consequences related to onsite use and transportation of the dis...

  17. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  18. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  19. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  20. Risk: assessment, acceptability and management

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-01-01

    Risk assessment, particularly of risks to the public health resulting from government and industry decisions, is discussed. Cost/benefit analysis as applied to such situations as human deaths and the contracting of cancer by humans is discussed. The role of government regulations and standards is discussed.

  1. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  2. Chemical fractionation of arsenic and heavy metals in fine particle matter and its implications for risk assessment: A case study in Nanjing, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Huiming; Wang, Jinhua; Wang, Qin'geng; Qian, Xin; Qian, Yu; Yang, Meng; Li, Fengying; Lu, Hao; Wang, Cheng

    2015-02-01

    A four-step sequential extraction procedure was used to study the chemical fractionation of As and heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) collected from Nanjing, China. The mass concentrations of most PM2.5 samples exceeded the 24 h standard (75 μg/m3) recommended by the new national ambient air quality standard of China. The most abundant elements were Fe, Zn and Pb, while As and Cd were present at the lowest concentrations. As, Cd, Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn were mostly present in the two mobile fractions, including the soluble and exchangeable fraction (F1), and carbonates, oxides and reducible fraction (F2). Fe had the highest proportion present in the residual fraction (F4). Relatively high proportions of the metals Ni and Cr were present in the oxidizable and sulfidic fraction (F3). High proportions of Zn, As and Cu and lower proportions of Cd, Cr and Fe were present in the potentially mobile phases. The enrichment factor, contamination factor and risk assessment code were calculated to analyze the main sources and assess the environmental risks of the metals in PM2.5. The carcinogenic risks of As, Cd, Ni and Pb were all lower than the accepted criterion of 10-6, whereas the carcinogenic risks of Cr for children and As and Cr for adults were higher than 10-6. The non-carcinogenic health risk of As and heavy metals because of PM2.5 exposure for children and adults were lower than but close to the safe level of 1.

  3. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  4. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  5. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  6. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  7. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  8. Alpha 2u-globulin nephropathy: review of the cellular and molecular mechanisms involved and their implications for human risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Swenberg, J A

    1993-01-01

    This paper reviews what is known about the induction of alpha 2u-globulin nephropathy and carcinogenesis. This unique male-rat-specific disease is associated with exposure to an ever-increasing number of chemicals. The processes leading to nephropathy and renal cancer are among the best-understood mechanisms for nongenotoxic chemicals and strongly support that it is a male-rat-specific process that is not relevant for human risk assessment. Nevertheless, the data available for individual chemicals vary greatly. This necessitates a case-by-case analysis of the available data when determining the relevance for humans of this chemically induced renal disease in male rats. PMID:7517351

  9. Neurotoxicity in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Weiss, B.

    1988-01-01

    Neurotoxicity is a property of many metals, even those deemed biologically essential. Manganese, one of the essential elements, can induce a syndrome displaying aspects of both Parkinsonism and dystonia, but accompanied, as well, by psychological abnormalities. At low exposure levels, however, neurotoxicity may be detectable with psychological tests. Mercury vapor exposure also induces neurological signs, psychological aberrations, and subtle evidence of dysfunction on psychological tests. Methylmercury and lead are particularly toxic to the developing brain. The most recent research indicates that psychological testing may uncover deficits even in children showing no evidence of impairment. Because of their special features, neurotoxic endpoints may have to be evaluated for risks by a process that diverges significantly from the standard program based on carcinogenicity.

  10. Topics in cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Olin, S S; Neumann, D A; Foran, J A; Scarano, G J

    1997-01-01

    The estimation of carcinogenic risks from exposure to chemicals has become an integral part of the regulatory process in the United States within the past decade. With it have come considerable controversy and debate over the scientific merits and shortcomings of the methods and their impact on risk management decisions. In this paper we highlight selected topics of current interest in the debate. As an indication of the level of public concern, we note the major recent reports on risk assessment from the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S Environmental Protection Agency's proposed substantial revisions to its Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. We identify and briefly frame several key scientific issues in cancer risk assessment, including the growing recognition of the importance of understanding the mode of action of carcinogenesis in experimental animals and in humans, the methodologies and challenges in quantitative extrapolation of cancer risks, and the question of how to assess and account for human variability in susceptibility to carcinogens. In addition, we discuss initiatives in progress that may fundamentally alter the carcinogenesis testing paradigm. PMID:9114281

  11. A Process Model for Assessing Adolescent Risk for Suicide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stoelb, Matt; Chiriboga, Jennifer

    1998-01-01

    This comprehensive assessment process model includes primary, secondary, and situational risk factors and their combined implications and significance in determining an adolescent's level or risk for suicide. Empirical data and clinical intuition are integrated to form a working client model that guides the professional in continuously reassessing…

  12. Curricular Implications of Alternate Assessments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browder, Diane; Flowers, Claudia; Ahlgrim-Delzell, Lynn; Karvonen, Meagan; Spooner, Fred; Algozzine, Robert

    The 1997 amendments to the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) required that states provide alternate assessments for students unable to participate in the statewide assessment systems (e.g., those with severe disabilities). IDEA mandated that alternate assessments access the general curriculum. This study examined the curricular…

  13. Impact Differences in Ground Reaction Force and Center of Mass Between the First and Second Landing Phases of a Drop Vertical Jump and their Implications for Injury Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Bates, Nathaniel A.; Ford, Kevin R.; Myer, Gregory D.; Hewett, Timothy E.

    2013-01-01

    The drop vertical jump (DVJ) task is commonly used to assess biomechanical performance measures that are associated with ACL injury risk in athletes. Previous investigations have solely assessed the first landing phase. We examined the first and second landings of a DVJ for differences in the magnitude of vertical ground reaction force (vGRF) and position of center of mass (CoM). A cohort of 239 adolescent female basketball athletes completed a series of DVJ tasks from an initial box height of 31 cm. Dual force platforms and a three dimensional motion capture system recorded force and positional data for each trial. There was no difference in peak vGRF between landings (p = 0.445), but side-to-side differences increased from the first to second landing (p = 0.007). Participants demonstrated a lower minimum CoM during stance in the first landing than the second landing (p < 0.001). The results have important implications for the future assessment of ACL injury risk behaviors in adolescent female athletes. Greater side-to-side asymmetry in vGRF and higher CoM during impact indicate the second landing of a DVJ may exhibit greater perturbation and better represent in-game mechanics associated with ACL injury risk. PMID:23538000

  14. Risk Assessment of Fluoride Intake from Tea in the Republic of Ireland and its Implications for Public Health and Water Fluoridation.

    PubMed

    Waugh, Declan T; Potter, William; Limeback, Hardy; Godfrey, Michael

    2016-03-01

    The Republic of Ireland (RoI) is the only European Country with a mandatory national legislation requiring artificial fluoridation of drinking water and has the highest per capita consumption of black tea in the world. Tea is a hyperaccumulator of fluoride and chronic fluoride intake is associated with multiple negative health outcomes. In this study, fifty four brands of the commercially available black tea bag products were purchased and the fluoride level in tea infusions tested by an ion-selective electrode method. The fluoride content in all brands tested ranged from 1.6 to 6.1 mg/L, with a mean value of 3.3 mg/L. According to our risk assessment it is evident that the general population in the RoI is at a high risk of chronic fluoride exposure and associated adverse health effects based on established reference values. We conclude that the culture of habitual tea drinking in the RoI indicates that the total cumulative dietary fluoride intake in the general population could readily exceed the levels known to cause chronic fluoride intoxication. Evidence suggests that excessive fluoride intake may be contributing to a wide range of adverse health effects. Therefore from a public health perspective, it would seem prudent and sensible that risk reduction measures be implemented to reduce the total body burden of fluoride in the population. PMID:26927146

  15. Effects of drying and comminution type on the quantification of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH) in a homogenised gasworks soil and the implications for human health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Beriro, Darren J; Vane, Christopher H; Cave, Mark R; Nathanail, C Paul

    2014-09-01

    This research investigates the effect of nine physical treatment types comprising a serial combination of three drying (air, freeze and oven) and two comminution (milling and sieving) methods on the quantification of PAH in a soil sample from a former gasworks. Results show that treatment type has a significant effect on PAH concentration (p⩽0.05). Naphthalene, 1-methylnaphthalene and 2-methylnaphthalene concentrations were significantly higher for air drying and freeze drying treatments than for oven drying. It is suggested that naphthalene and similarly volatile PAH losses were greater for oven drying due to the application of fanned warm air which is thought to cause volatilisation. Analytical precision was significantly improved for milled samples compared with sieved samples. The reason milling results in greater precision is assigned to the improved solvent extraction efficiency when natural grain size is altered due to crushing. The analytical data were compared to residential generic assessment criteria (GAC) used for risk-based land management. It was shown that the naphthalene GAC was lower than all freeze drying and air drying concentrations but was within the oven drying concentration range, illustrating that a false negative could be concluded during risk evaluation is oven dried data were used. Overall, it is recommended that air drying or freeze drying is a better choice than oven drying if the quantification of low molecular weight PAH forms an important objective of sample characterisation for risk-based land management, otherwise freeze drying and milling is recommended. PMID:24997944

  16. Assessing the Risks of West Nile Virus–Infected Mosquitoes from Transatlantic Aircraft: Implications for Disease Emergence in the United Kingdom

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Eleanor B.E.; Adkin, Amie; Fooks, Anthony R.; Stephenson, Ben; Medlock, Jolyon M.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract The number of West Nile virus (WNV)–infected mosquitoes aboard aircraft from the United States that arrive in the United Kingdom each summer was determined using a quantitative risk assessment. In the worst-case scenario, when WNV levels in mosquitoes are high (at epidemic levels) the probability of at least one WNV-infected mosquito being introduced into the United Kingdom was predicted to be 0.99. During these periods, a mean of 5.2 infected mosquitoes were estimated to be aboard flights from the United States to the United Kingdom during May to October, with 90% certainty that the exact value lies between one and ten mosquitoes. Heathrow airport was predicted to receive the majority of the infected mosquitoes (72.1%). Spatial analysis revealed the region surrounding Heathrow satisfies the criteria for potential WNV exposure as both WNV-competent mosquitoes and susceptible wild bird species are present. This region is, therefore, recommended for targeted, risk-based surveillance of WNV-infected mosquitoes in addition to an increased awareness of the risks to horses, birds and humans. PMID:22217181

  17. Risk Assessment of Fluoride Intake from Tea in the Republic of Ireland and its Implications for Public Health and Water Fluoridation

    PubMed Central

    Waugh, Declan T.; Potter, William; Limeback, Hardy; Godfrey, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The Republic of Ireland (RoI) is the only European Country with a mandatory national legislation requiring artificial fluoridation of drinking water and has the highest per capita consumption of black tea in the world. Tea is a hyperaccumulator of fluoride and chronic fluoride intake is associated with multiple negative health outcomes. In this study, fifty four brands of the commercially available black tea bag products were purchased and the fluoride level in tea infusions tested by an ion-selective electrode method. The fluoride content in all brands tested ranged from 1.6 to 6.1 mg/L, with a mean value of 3.3 mg/L. According to our risk assessment it is evident that the general population in the RoI is at a high risk of chronic fluoride exposure and associated adverse health effects based on established reference values. We conclude that the culture of habitual tea drinking in the RoI indicates that the total cumulative dietary fluoride intake in the general population could readily exceed the levels known to cause chronic fluoride intoxication. Evidence suggests that excessive fluoride intake may be contributing to a wide range of adverse health effects. Therefore from a public health perspective, it would seem prudent and sensible that risk reduction measures be implemented to reduce the total body burden of fluoride in the population. PMID:26927146

  18. Space shuttle operational risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare

    1996-03-01

    A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Space Shuttle system has recently been completed. This year-long effort represents a development resulting from seven years of application of risk technology to the Space Shuttle. These applications were initiated by NASA shortly after the Challenger accident as recommended by the Rogers and Slay Commission reports. The current effort is the first integrated quantitative assessment of the risk of the loss of the shuttle vehicle from 3 seconds prior to liftoff to wheel-stop at mission end. The study which was conducted under the direction of NASA's Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance office at Johnson Spaceflight Center focused on shuttle operational risk but included consideration of all the shuttle flight and test history since the beginning of the program through Mission 67 in July of 1994.

  19. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    SciTech Connect

    Allgood, GO

    2001-08-15

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  20. An evaluation of the "GGP" personal samplers under semi-volatile aerosols: sampling losses and their implication on occupational risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dragan, George C; Breuer, Dietmar; Blaskowitz, Morten; Karg, Erwin; Schnelle-Kreis, Jürgen; Arteaga-Salas, Jose M; Nordsieck, Hermann; Zimmermann, Ralf

    2015-02-01

    Semi-volatile (SV) aerosols still represent an important challenge to occupational hygienists due to toxicological and sampling issues. Particularly problematic is the sampling of hazardous SV that are present in both particulate and vapour phases at a workplace. In this study we investigate the potential evaporation losses of SV aerosols when using off-line filter-adsorber personal samplers. Furthermore, we provide experimental data showing the extent of the evaporation loss that can bias the workplace risk assessment. An experimental apparatus consisting of an aerosol generator, a flow tube and an aerosol monitoring and sampling system was set up inside a temperature controlled chamber. Aerosols from three n-alkanes were generated, diluted with nitrogen and sampled using on-line and off-line filter-adsorber methods. Parallel measurements using the on-line and off-line methods were conducted to quantify the bias induced by filter sampling. Additionally, two mineral oils of different volatility were spiked on filters and monitored for evaporation depending on the samplers flow rate. No significant differences between the on-line and off-line methods were detected for the sum of particles and vapour. The filter-adsorber method however tended to underestimate up to 100% of the particle mass, especially for the more volatile compounds and lower concentrations. The off-line sampling method systematically returned lower particle and higher vapour values, an indication for particle evaporation losses. We conclude that using only filter sampling for the assessment of semi-volatiles may considerably underestimate the presence of the particulate phase due to evaporation. Thus, this underestimation can have a negative impact on the occupational risk assessment if the evaporated particle mass is no longer quantified. PMID:25345615

  1. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  2. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. PMID:25321142

  3. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  4. Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strunz, G.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Mück, M.; Riedlinger, T.; Mehl, H.; Dech, S.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.; Harjono, H.; Anwar, H. Z.; Sumaryono; Khomarudin, R. M.; Muhari, A.

    2011-01-01

    In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia. The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009). The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

  5. Benzidine dihydrochloride: risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Littlefield, N A; Nelson, C J; Gaylor, D W

    1984-02-01

    Benzidine, recognized as a bladder carcinogen in man and as a liver carcinogen in experimental animals, is the chemical basis of as many as 200 commercial dyes. Physiological processes can metabolize these dyes to release benzidine, thereby creating a potential exposure hazard. To assess this hazard, both sexes of F1 hybrid (genetically homogeneous) and monohybrid (genetically heterogeneous) mice from a BALB/c male and C57BL/6 female cross were exposed for their respective lifespans to benzidine dihydrochloride in their drinking water at concentrations of 0, 30, 40, 60, 80, 120, and 160 ppm for males, and 0, 20, 30, 40, 60, 80, and 120 ppm for females. Animals were removed from the study when they were dead or moribund. This study was terminated after 33 months of exposure. Using the endpoint of hepatocellular adenomas and carcinomas, the Armitage Doll multistage model was used to describe the tumor rates in the experimental dose range and to obtain the upper confidence level on tumor rates. Linear interpolation was used between zero dose and the upper confidence level of the lowest experimental dosage for predicting potential low dose tumor rates. Dose-response effects on body weight, survival, and liver neoplasms were noted in both stocks. For each of the endpoints, the females were more susceptible than males and the F1 (homogeneous) stock was more susceptible than the monohybrid cross (heterogeneous). The calculated virtually "safe" dose predicted to produce less than one per million F1 female mice with a liver tumor is 0.045 ppb. One part per billion of benzidine dihydrochloride in the drinking water of these mice is estimated to produce liver tumors in less than 2.23 mice per 100,000 population. PMID:6363187

  6. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  8. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  9. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  10. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  11. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  12. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  13. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    PubMed Central

    Wolt, Jeffrey D

    2009-01-01

    Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization. PMID:19883509

  14. Assessment of mobility and bio-availability of heavy metals in dry depositions of Asian dust and implications for environmental risk.

    PubMed

    Lee, Pyeong-Koo; Choi, Byoung-Young; Kang, Min-Ju

    2015-01-01

    We assess the potential mobility and bio-availability of selected metals (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Mo, Pb, S, Zn, and Zr) in the dry depositions of Asian and non-Asian dust from the city of Daejeon, Korea. For this study, we applied Pb isotopes, total extraction and chemical sequential extraction methods to the dry depositions. In addition, microscopic analysis was performed using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and focused ion beam (FIB)-scanning electron microscopy (SEM-EDS). FIB-SEM cross-section observations and Pb isotope data showed a black carbon is an important carrier of associated heavy metals originating from China. A five-step sequential extraction performed on the dry depositions showed that S and Cd are the most abundant elements in the water-soluble and cation-exchangeable fraction. In addition, Zn and Pb appeared predominantly in the carbonate and reducible fractions. On the other hand, Cu, Mo and, to a lesser degree, As were significantly associated with the organic fraction, while Co, Ni, Cr and Zr were bound to the residual fraction. These results showed that S, Cd, Zn and Pb, which were highly concentrated in potentially mobile fractions, have potential environmental risk because potential changes in redox state and pH may remobilize these metals. In addition, the estimated remobilization concentrations of these metals were significant. Thus, this study shows that frequent and careful monitoring of S, Cd, Z, Pb and, to a lesser degree, Cu, Mo and As is very important for assessing environmental risk in Korea. PMID:25454202

  15. Risk assessment of non-dietary exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) via house PM2.5, TSP and dust and the implications from human hair

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wei; Huang, Min-juan; Chan, Chuen-Yu; Cheung, Kwai Chung; Wong, Ming Hung

    2013-07-01

    To evaluate the cancer risk due to non-dietary PAHs exposure in home environment (inhalation and ingestion), exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of PM2.5, total suspend particles (TSP) and dust in homes at two urban centers of Pearl River Delta were assessed. House PM2.5 bound PAHs in Guangzhou (GZ) ranged from 10.0 to 61.9 ng m-3 and 0.72 to 8.15 ng m-3 in Hong Kong (HK). PAH profiles found in PM2.5, TSP and dust were different than that in hair (dominated by Nap and Phe). Pyr and Flu in house dust significantly correlated with that in hair (r = 0.69; 0.55, p < 0.05) but no correlation was found between PAHs in hair and PM2.5. High correlation coefficients (r2 = 0.97/0.95, p < 0.01) were noted between dibenzo(a,h)anthracene (DBA) and Toxicity Equivalent Concentrations (TEQs) of dust and PM2.5. The lung cancer risks based on PM2.5 bound PAHs exposure in houses of GZ (10-5-10-4) were significantly higher than those of HK (10-6-10-5), which were also significantly higher than the cancer risks associated with house dust intake (10-7-10-5) in GZ. PAHs exposure via non-dietary route (PM2.5 and dust) was found to be 1-3 times higher than fish consumption for children and contributed to 52-76% of total PAHs intake for children and 24-50% for adults in GZ.

  16. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  17. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  18. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  19. Occurrence and field densities of Coleoptera in the maize herb layer: implications for Environmental Risk Assessment of genetically modified Bt-maize.

    PubMed

    Rauschen, Stefan; Schaarschmidt, Frank; Gathmann, Achim

    2010-10-01

    Beetles (Coleoptera) are a diverse and ecologically important group of insects in agricultural systems. The Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) of genetically modified Bt-crop varieties with insect resistances thus needs to consider and assess the potential negative impacts on non-target organisms belonging to this group. We analysed data gathered during 6 years of field-release experiments on the impact of two genetically modified Bt-maize varieties (Ostrinia-resistant MON810 and Diabrotica-resistant MON88017) on the occurrence and field densities of Coleoptera, especially the two families Coccinellidae and Chrysomelidae. Based on a statistical analysis aimed at establishing whether Bt-maize varieties are equivalent to their near-isogenic counterparts, we discuss the limitations of using field experiments to assess the effects of Bt-maize on these two beetle families. The densities of most of the beetle families recorded in the herb layer were very low in all growing seasons. Coccinellidae and Chrysomelidae were comparatively abundant and diverse, but still low in numbers. Based on their role as biological control agents, Coccinellidae should be a focus in the ERA of Bt-plants, but given the large natural variability in ladybird densities in the field, most questions need to be addressed in low-tier laboratory tests. Chrysomelidae should play a negligible role in the ERA of Bt-plants, since they occur on-crop as secondary pests only. Species occurring off-crop, however, can be addressed in a similar fashion as non-target Lepidoptera in Cry1Ab expressing Bt-maize. PMID:20012775

  20. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  2. Genomic variation in the MMP-1 promoter influences estrogen receptor mediated activity in a mechanically activated environment: potential implications for microgravity risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thaler, John; Myers, Ken; Lu, Ting; Hart, David

    examine the potential impact of the 1G/2G SNP on the cellular response to mechanical loading. HIG-82 cells are estrogen receptor (ER) negative and were transiently transfected with SV40 expression vectors for either ER-α or ER-β isoforms. Cells grown on glass slides were also co-transfected with either a 1G or 2G MMP-1 promoter-luciferase construct. Transfected cells were subjected to dynamic shear stress in a Flexcell Streamer Shear Stress Device. The dynamic loading regime was 0.5 Hz, 10 dyn/cm2 shear for 1 minute followed by 14 minutes rest and repeated for 8 hrs. A Promega Dual Luciferase Reporter Assay System was used to assess MMP-1 promoter activity. Results: Shear stress loading increased both 1G and 2G MMP-1 promoter activity compared to unloaded controls, however the 2G promoter had significantly higher rates of expression than the 1G promoter across all loading regimes and ER co-transfections. Transfection with ER-β resulted in higher MMP-1 promoter activity than that in cells expressing ER-α or in ER-neg cells. Conclusions: Specific genomic variations can lead to differences in cellular responses to changes in mechanical loading environments such as are encountered in microgravity environments or earth-based analogs. These genomic differences may predispose individuals to greater risk of bone loss. It is important to understand the combined effects of mechanical loading, genetic variation and sex hormones on bone maintenance so that risks can be identified for microgravity or analog environments, and specific interventions developed to counteract such risk or even exclude some individuals from prolonged space environments due to the extent of the risk.

  3. [Predictive microbiology and risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, G; Kleer, J

    2004-05-01

    Predictive microbiology (predictive modelling PM), in spite of its limits and short-comings, may often contribute to a reduction of the problems arising when HACCP systems are established or microbiological risk assessment is done. Having identified the agents which constitute a risk and the contamination rate and density in the raw material, the influences of production steps and storage on these microorganisms have to be examined. Finally, there should be an exposure assessment, i.e. an estimate of the contamination density in the final product at the time of consumption. Should the exposure assessment together with data from dose response assessments reveal a potential for intake of inacceptable numbers of organisms, the risk identified has to be characterized. As a consequence, risk management should result in a modification of the composition of the product and/or of the production process so that the risk does not surpass an acceptable limit. For this approach it is indispensable to have product- and process-specific information on the multiplication of pathogens prior to heat treatment, on reduction of their density by thermal treatment and on growth or dying of organisms having survived heat treatment or penetrated into the product after heat treatment as post-process contaminant. Commonly, challenge tests are conducted to provide such information. But they are time consuming and, as their results are only valid for the specific product tested and the conditions prevailing during the experiment, the have to be repeated if there is any modification of intrinsic or extrinsic factors. At least partially, the PM may replace the challenge tests. The efficiency of the models is rated particularly high if they are used already at the stage of product development when the question has to be answered whether a planned recipe or process of production are already save or have to be modified to become save. PMID:15233338

  4. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  5. Nuclear weapon system risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Carlson, D.D.

    1993-11-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a process for evaluating hazardous operations by considering what can go wrong, the likelihood of these undesired events, and the resultant consequences. Techniques used in PRA originated in the 1960s. Although there were early exploratory applications to nuclear weapons and other technologies, the first major application of these techniques was in the Reactor Safety Study, WASH-1400, {sup 1} in which the risks of nuclear power accidents were thoroughly investigated for the first time. Recently, these techniques have begun to be adapted to nuclear weapon system applications. This report discusses this application to nuclear weapon systems.

  6. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned

    SciTech Connect

    DeShields, B.R.; Stelljes, M.E.; Hawkins, E.T.; Alsop, W.R.

    1995-12-31

    On the basis of experience with ecological risk assessments and regulatory involvement in the process, a number of lessons can be learned relating to design, implementation, and reporting of ecological risk assessments. A number of case studies will be presented in order to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches. Issues surrounding the selection of assessment and measurement endpoints, receptors, accuracy of models when compared with field data, bioavailability of chemicals, selection of appropriate reference sites, availability of relevant toxicological data, utility of bioassays, and accounting for temporal and seasonal variability, species adaptation, and ecological relevance will be examined. In addition, effective ways of dealing with limitations such as duration and cost of the assessments will be evaluated. Case studies ranging from large, complex Superfund sites to small, relatively simplistic sites will be included. By scrutinizing the approaches used and the outcomes of these case studies, insight can be gained that will allow risk assessors to deal with limitations and to focus future efforts to provide useful and relevant information and sound scientifically-based results.

  7. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  8. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  9. Language Assessment of Asian Students: Problems & Implications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Ovid K.

    The problems and implications of language assessment of Asian students are examined. The theories of Jean Piaget and Jerome Bruner concerning the relationship between language and cognition are explored. Cognitive operations are assumed by many educators to be related to academic achievement. Culturally, Asians favor the Piagetian interpretation…

  10. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    PubMed

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  11. Enantioselective induction of cytotoxicity by o,p'-DDD in PC12 cells: implications of chirality in risk assessment of POPs metabolites.

    PubMed

    Wang, Cui; Li, Zhuoyu; Zhang, Quan; Zhao, Meirong; Liu, Weiping

    2013-04-16

    The increased release of chiral persistent organic pollutants (POPs) into the environment has resulted in more attention to the role of enantioselectivity in the fate and ecotoxicological effects of these compounds. Although the enantioselectivity of chiral POPs has been considered in previous studies, little effort has been expended to discern the enantiospecific effects of chiral POPs metabolites, which may impede comprehensive risk assessments of these chemicals. In the present study, o,p'-DDD, the chiral metabolite of o,p'-DDT, was used as a model chiral metabolite. First, a preferential chiral separation at 100% ethanol was employed to obtain a pure enantiomer. The enantioselective cytotoxicity of o,p'-DDD in rat cells (PC12) was evaluated by detecting activation of the cellular apoptosis and oxidative stress systems and microarray analysis. We have documented for the first time that R-(+)-o,p'-DDD increases apoptosis by selectively disturbing the oxidative system (enzymes and molecules) and regulating the transcription of Aven, Bid, Cideb and Tp53. By comparing the data from the present study to data derived from the parent compound, we concluded that the R-enantiomer is the more detrimental stereostructure for both o,p'-DDT and o,p'-DDD. This observed stereostructural effect is in line with the structure-activity relationship formulated at other structural levels. Biological activities of the chiral metabolites are likely to occur in the same absolute configuration between chiral POPs and their metabolites provided that they have the similar stereostructures. PMID:23485034

  12. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  13. Interactions Between Child Behavior Patterns and Parent Supervision: Implications for Children's Risk of Unintentional Injury

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrongiello, Barbara A.; Klemencic, Nora; Corbett, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Unintentional injuries are the leading cause of death for children. Prior research has implicated both child behavioral attributes and parent supervisory patterns as risk factors. The present study assessed interactions between these two risk factors and determined whether supervision moderates the relation between child attributes and injury.…

  14. Risk assessment of shellfish toxins.

    PubMed

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-11-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  15. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  16. Identification and Risk Assessment for Worldwide Invasion and Spread of Tuta absoluta with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Phytosanitary Measures and Management

    PubMed Central

    Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Mohamed, Samira F.; Khamis, Fathiya; Ekesi, Sunday

    2015-01-01

    To support management decisions, molecular characterization of data and geo-reference of incidence records of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) were combined with data on the biology and ecology of the pest to estimate its climatic suitability and potential spread at regional and global scale. A CLIMEX model was developed and used for the global prediction of current and future climate-induced changes in the distributional shifts of T. absoluta. Results revealed that temperature and moisture characterized T. absoluta population growth while the pest ability to survive the cold, hot, wet and dry stress conditions are the primary characteristics defining its range frontiers. Simulated irrigation also played an important role in the model optimization. Model predictions suggest that T. absoluta represents an important threat to Africa, Asia, Australia, Northern Europe, New Zealand, Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). Under climate change context, future predictions on distribution of T. absoluta indicated that the invasive nature of this pest will result in significant crop losses in certain locations whereas some parts of Africa may witness diminution in ranges. The following scenarios may occur: 1) T. absoluta damage potential may upsurge moderately in areas of Africa where the pest currently exists; 2) a range diminution in temperate to Sahel region with moderate upsurge in damage potential; 3) a range expansion in tropical Africa with reasonable upsurge of damage potential. These possible outcomes could be explained by the fact that the continent is already warm, with the average temperature in majority of localities near the threshold temperatures for optimal development and survival of T. absoluta. Outputs from this study should be useful in helping decision-makers in their assessment of site-specific risks of invasion and spread of T. absoluta with a view to developing appropriate surveillance, phytosanitary measures and

  17. Two years of continuous TIR satellite monitoring over European and Asian Regions: results and possible implications for an Integrated System for a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tramutoli, Valerio; Corrado, Rosita; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Lisi, Mariano; Paciello, Rossana; Pergola, Nicola

    2013-04-01

    Space-time fluctuations of Earth's emitted Thermal Infrared (TIR) radiation have been observed by satellite months to weeks before earthquakes occurrence. The general RST (Robust Satellite Techniques) approach has been used (since 2001) in order to discriminate normal (i.e. related to the change of natural factor and/or observation conditions) TIR signal fluctuations from anomalous signal transients possibly associated to earthquake occurrence. Since then several earthquakes occurred all around the World have been studied on the base of decades of satellite observations always using a validation/confutation approach in order to verify the presence/absence of anomalous space-time TIR transients in presence/absence of significant seismic activity. During the PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project (www.pre-earthquakes.org), a real-time monitoring activity was started by applying RST approach to MSG/SEVIRI data over Italy (since October 2010), Turkey (since November 2011) and Greece (since Juy 2012). For the first time a similar analysis has been performed in real-time, systematically analyzing, day by day, TIR anomaly maps in order to identify possible significant (e.g. persistent in the space-time domain) thermal anomalies. Results were quite surprising as only in very few cases the day by day analysis enhanced space-time persistent anomalies that were communicated to the other PRE-EARTHQUAKES partners asking for their attention. In this paper results of two years of day-by-day TIR analysis over some European and Asian Region will be presented. Its enhanced potential, when applied in the framework of a DASR (Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk) system continuously integrating independent observations, will be moreover discussed.

  18. Long-term daily intake estimates of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans, polychlorinated biphenyls and polybrominated diphenylethers from food in Finnish children: risk assessment implications.

    PubMed

    Karjalainen, Anna K; Hirvonen, Tero; Kiviranta, Hannu; Sinkko, Harri; Kronberg-Kippilä, Carina; Virtanen, Suvi M; Hallikainen, Anja; Leino, Olli; Knip, Mikael; Veijola, Riitta; Simell, Olli; Tuomisto, Jouni T

    2012-01-01

    Food is contaminated by polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/F), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDE) worldwide. Previous data show elevated intakes in children. We determined intakes of POPs in Finnish children. Because no children-specific safe limit values exist, we used tolerable daily intakes (TDIs) set for adults by international expert bodies to examine the proportion of the study population that exceed those limits. We utilised dietary monitoring data with food consumption of Finnish boys and girls aged 1-6 years, measured the contaminant concentrations in all the main food items and calculated age-specific contaminant sum and congener-specific long-term daily intake levels. Our food intake and contaminant data correspond to years 2002-2005. The long-term upper-bound dioxin intakes ranged between 0.1 and 12.8 pg WHO(PCDD/F-PCB)-TEQ/kg bw/d (min and max). An immediate TDI for WHO(PCDD/F-PCB)-TEQs of 4.0 pg/kg bw/d were exceeded by 2.5%-7.5% of the children. PBDE long-term upper-bound intake was between 0.1 and 5.8 ng/kg bw/d (min and max). Congener-specific analyses indicated a typical Finnish adult exposure pattern of the children to PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PBDEs. The highest POP intakes were observed in children aged 3 years. Long-term daily PCDD/F, PCB and PBDE intakes among Finnish children varied greatly between individuals and ages. In each age group of the study population, there was a proportion of children with their WHO(PCDD/F-PCB)-TEQ intake exceeding considered safe limits set for adults. Based on the exposure profile reported herein, children should be clearly considered as a specific sub-population in food-mediated contaminant risk assessment. PMID:22765049

  19. Identification and Risk Assessment for Worldwide Invasion and Spread of Tuta absoluta with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Phytosanitary Measures and Management.

    PubMed

    Tonnang, Henri E Z; Mohamed, Samira A; Mohamed, Samira F; Khamis, Fathiya; Ekesi, Sunday

    2015-01-01

    To support management decisions, molecular characterization of data and geo-reference of incidence records of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) were combined with data on the biology and ecology of the pest to estimate its climatic suitability and potential spread at regional and global scale. A CLIMEX model was developed and used for the global prediction of current and future climate-induced changes in the distributional shifts of T. absoluta. Results revealed that temperature and moisture characterized T. absoluta population growth while the pest ability to survive the cold, hot, wet and dry stress conditions are the primary characteristics defining its range frontiers. Simulated irrigation also played an important role in the model optimization. Model predictions suggest that T. absoluta represents an important threat to Africa, Asia, Australia, Northern Europe, New Zealand, Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). Under climate change context, future predictions on distribution of T. absoluta indicated that the invasive nature of this pest will result in significant crop losses in certain locations whereas some parts of Africa may witness diminution in ranges. The following scenarios may occur: 1) T. absoluta damage potential may upsurge moderately in areas of Africa where the pest currently exists; 2) a range diminution in temperate to Sahel region with moderate upsurge in damage potential; 3) a range expansion in tropical Africa with reasonable upsurge of damage potential. These possible outcomes could be explained by the fact that the continent is already warm, with the average temperature in majority of localities near the threshold temperatures for optimal development and survival of T. absoluta. Outputs from this study should be useful in helping decision-makers in their assessment of site-specific risks of invasion and spread of T. absoluta with a view to developing appropriate surveillance, phytosanitary measures and

  20. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real problems, and…

  1. ECO 201: Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objectives of this course is to provide participants with knowledge about the fundamentals of ecological risk assessment. A brief history of how ecological risk assessment has evolved over time and how it is both similar to and different from human health risk assessment wil...

  2. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  3. Cancer clinical trial participants' assessment of risk and benefit

    PubMed Central

    Ulrich, Connie M.; Ratcliffe, Sarah J.; Wallen, Gwenyth R.; Zhou, Qiuping (Pearl); Knafl, Kathleen; Grady, Christine

    2015-01-01

    Background The purpose of this article is to examine the extent to which cancer clinical trial participants assess the benefits and risks of research participation before enrollment. Methods One hundred and ten oncology research participants enrolled in cancer clinical research in a large Northeastern cancer center responded to a self-administered questionnaire on perceptions about cancer clinical trials. Results Of the participants, 51.6% reported they did not directly assess the benefits or risks. Educational level, age, employment, treatment options, insurance, and spiritual–religious beliefs were significantly associated with whether participants assessed risk and benefits. Those who felt well informed were more likely to have assessed the benefits and risks at enrollment than those who did not feel well informed (odds ratio [OR] = 3.92, p = .014); of those who did not assess the risks and benefits, 21% did not feel well informed at enrollment (p = .001). Those who agreed that the clinical trial helped pay the costs of the care had nearly three times the odds of not assessing risks and benefits compared to those who disagreed. Conclusion Our findings have important implications for understanding the role of assessing risks and benefits in the research participation decisions of patients with cancer and call for further understanding of why participants are not assessing information believed to be essential for autonomous informed decisions. PMID:26709381

  4. Metabolism, variability and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dorne, J L C M

    2010-02-01

    improve the risk assessment of chemical mixtures were explored (1) harmonization of the use of uncertainty factors for human and ecological risk assessment using mechanistic descriptors (2) use of toxicokinetics interaction data to derive UFs for chemical mixtures. The use of toxicokinetics data in risk assessment are discussed together with future approaches including sound statistical approaches to optimise predictability of models and recombinant technology/toxicokinetics assays to identify metabolic routes for chemicals and screen mixtures of environmental health importance. PMID:19932147

  5. Using the Health Belief Model to Illustrate Factors That Influence Risk Assessment during Pregnancy and Implications for Prenatal Education about Endocrine Disruptors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Qiu, Xing; Chen, Shaw-Ree; Barrett, Emily S.; Velez, Marissa; Conn, Kelly; Heinert, Sara

    2014-01-01

    Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) such as Bisphenol A (BPA) and phthalates are ubiquitous in our environment and a growing body of research indicates that EDCs may adversely affect human development. Fetal development is particularly susceptible to EDC exposure, and prenatal care providers are being asked to educate women about the risks of…

  6. RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

  7. Child effects and child care: Implications for risk and adjustment.

    PubMed

    Snell, Emily K; Hindman, Annemarie H; Belsky, Jay

    2015-11-01

    Evocative effects of child characteristics on the quality and quantity of child care were assessed in two studies using longitudinal data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care. We focus on the influence of child characteristics on two important aspects of the child care experience: language stimulation provided by caregivers and quantity of care. In Study 1, associations between the developmental status of children aged 15 to 54 months and the language stimulation provided by their caregivers were examined using path models, and longitudinal child effects were detected across the earliest time points of the study. In Study 2, the associations among child behavior, temperament, development, and time in care were examined. Little evidence was found for such child effects on time in care. The results are discussed in terms of the effects of child care on child development and implications for developmental processes, particularly for children at greatest risk for developmental delay or psychopathology. PMID:26439062

  8. Melanoma susceptibility genes and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Marzuka-Alcalá, Alexander; Gabree, Michele Jacobs; Tsao, Hensin

    2014-01-01

    Familial melanoma accounts for approximately a tenth of all melanoma cases. The most commonly known melanoma susceptibility gene is the highly penetrant CDKN2A (p16INK4a) locus, which is transmitted in an autosomal dominant fashion and accounts for approximately 20-50 % of familial melanoma cases. Mutated p16INK4a shows impaired capacity to inhibit the cyclin D1-CDK4 complex, allowing for unchecked cell cycle progression. Mutations in the second protein coded by CDKN2A, p14ARF, are much less common and result in proteasomal degradation of p53 with subsequent accumulation of DNA damage as the cell progresses through the cell cycle without a functional p53-mediated DNA damage response. Mutations in CDK4 that impair the inhibitory interaction with p16INK4a also increase melanoma risk but these mutations are extremely rare. Genes of the melanin biosynthetic pathway, including MC1R and MITF, have also been implicated in melanomagenesis. MC1R variants were traditionally thought to increase risk for melanoma secondary to intensified UV-mediated DNA damage in the setting of absent photoprotective eumelanin. Accumulation of pheomelanin, which appears to have a carcinogenic effect regardless of UV exposure, may be a more likely mechanism. Impaired SUMOylation of the E318K variant of MITF results in increased transcription of genes that confer melanocytes with a pro-malignant phenotype. Mutations in the tumor suppressor BAP1 enhance the metastatic potential of uveal melanoma and predispose to cutaneous/ocular melanoma, atypical melanocytic tumors, and other internal malignancies (COMMON syndrome). Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous low-risk alleles. Although several melanoma susceptibility genes have been identified, risk assessment tools have been developed only for the most common gene implicated with hereditary melanoma, CDKN2A. MelaPRO, a validated model that relies on Mendelian inheritance and Bayesian probability theories, estimates carrier

  9. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  10. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  11. Performance of two quantitative PCR methods for microbial source tracking of human sewage and implications for microbial risk assessment in recreational waters

    EPA Science Inventory

    Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for recreational water quality assessment and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant soure has been...

  12. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  13. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects. PMID:15260335

  14. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  15. Implications of "Amae" for HIV Risk in Japanese Young Adults.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Onuoha, Francis N.; Munakata, Tsunetsugu

    2005-01-01

    Assertiveness, defined as perceived confidence to express true feelings in interpersonal relationships, has been reported to correlate with HIV risk avoidance. However, Japanese social structure encourages "amae" or self-repression. The present study investigated the implications of "amae" for HIV risk avoidance among Japanese university students.…

  16. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches. PMID:24984514

  17. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  18. DEVELOPMENT OF APPROACHES FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A population focused cumulative health risk assessment of a contaminated site or situation can include the evaluation of toxic risk from multiple chemicals, by multiple pathways, over different time frames of exposure, with multiple sensitive population subgroups, and possibly ot...

  19. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  20. Issues in risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The volume is the first in a series to be prepared by the Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology (CRAM) in the National Research Council's Board on Enviromental Studies and Toxicology. Three issues related to risk assessment are addressed here: use of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in animal bioassays for carcinogenicity, the two-state model of carcinogenesis, and a paradigm for ecologic risk assessment.

  1. Influence of drought and total phosphorus on diel pH in wadeable streams: implications for ecological risk assessment of ionizable contaminants.

    PubMed

    Valenti, Theodore W; Taylor, Jason M; Back, Jeffrey A; King, Ryan S; Brooks, Bryan W

    2011-10-01

    Climatological influences on site-specific ecohydrology are particularly germane in semiarid regions where instream flows are strongly influenced by effluent discharges. Because many traditional and emerging aquatic contaminants, such as pharmaceuticals, are ionizable, we examined diel surface water pH patterns (i.e., change in pH over a 24-h period) at 23 wadeable streams in central Texas, USA, representing a gradient of nutrient enrichment during consecutive summers of 2006 and 2007. The years of our study were characterized by decidedly different instream flows, which likely affected production:respiration dynamics and led to distinctions in diel pH patterns between 2006 and 2007. Site-specific ambient water quality criteria for NH(3) and the aquatic toxicity of the model weak base pharmaceutical sertraline were predicted using continuous water quality monitoring data from the sites. Drought conditions of 2006 significantly increased (p<0.05) diel pH changes compared to high instream flows of 2007,and the magnitude of diel pH variability was most pronounced at nutrient-enriched sites in 2006. Differences in diel pH change patterns between 2006 and 2007 affected predictions of the environmental fate and effects for model weak base pharmaceuticals and NH(3). Overall, site-specific diel pH was more variable at some sites than the difference in mean surface water pH between the 2 summers. Diel pH variability affected regulatory criteria, because 20% of the study sites in 2006 experienced greater than 5-fold differences in National Ambient Water Quality Criteria for NH(3) over 24-h periods. Our study emphasizes the potential uncertainty that diel pH variability may introduce in site-specific assessments and provides recommendations for environmental assessment of ionizable contaminants. PMID:21538832

  2. [Forest health ecological risk assessment in China].

    PubMed

    Xiao, Fengjin; Ouyang, Hua; Cheng, Shulan; Zhang, Qiang

    2004-02-01

    Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management. PMID:15146655

  3. Assessing complexity of skin blood flow oscillations in response to locally applied heating and pressure in rats: Implications for pressure ulcer risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Fuyuan; O'Brien, William D.; Jan, Yih-Kuen

    2013-10-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of local heating on the complexity of skin blood flow oscillations (BFO) under prolonged surface pressure in rats. Eleven Sprague-Dawley rats were studied: 7 rats underwent surface pressure with local heating (△t=10 °C) and 4 rats underwent pressure without heating. A pressure of 700 mmHg was applied to the right trochanter area of rats for 3 h. Skin blood flow was measured using laser Doppler flowmetry. The loading period was divided into nonoverlapping 30 min epochs. For each epoch, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) was utilized to compute DFA coefficients and complexity of endothelial related metabolic, neurogenic, and myogenic frequencies of BFO. The results showed that under surface pressure, local heating led to a significant decrease in DFA coefficients of myogenic frequency during the initial epoch of loading period, a sustained decrease in complexity of myogenic frequency, and a significantly higher degree of complexity of metabolic frequency during the later phase of loading period. Surrogate tests showed that the reduction in complexity of myogenic frequency was associated with a loss of nonlinearity whereas increased complexity of metabolic frequency was associated with enhanced nonlinearity. Our results indicate that increased metabolic activity and decreased myogenic response due to local heating manifest themselves not only in magnitudes of metabolic and myogenic frequencies but also in their structural complexity. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using complexity analysis of BFO to monitor the ischemic status of weight-bearing skin and risk of pressure ulcers.

  4. Presence of PAHs in water and sediments of the Colombian Cauca River during heavy rain episodes, and implications for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sarria-Villa, Rodrigo; Ocampo-Duque, William; Páez, Martha; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In Colombia little attention has been paid to river pollution with Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs). Low environmental control and legislation in such emerging region could significantly contribute to high PAHs releases. In this study, we report the presence of PAHs in water and sediments of the Cauca River (Colombia). Three sampling campaigns were carried out between May 2010 and June 2011, and the samples were collected at eight relevant sites. The sampling time included measuring before, during, and after a season of heavy rains, which were influenced by the global coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomenon, which affected tropical countries with huge flooding, commonly called "La Niña", and/or "El Niño" Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The highest mean ∑PAH concentrations were 4476.5 ng/l and 1582.7 ng/g in water and sediments, respectively. The PAHs most detected were Benzo[b]fluoranthene, Benzo[k]fluoranthene, and Pyrene in sediments; and Fluorene, Acenaphtylene, and Anthracene in water. After the season of rains statistically significant higher PAH concentrations were detected. The results of the study were compared to other rivers worldwide at both environmental compartments, and did not show concentrations of special concern. In some sites, concentrations detected of PAHs were higher than screening benchmarks for ecological protection. Estimation of human health risks was carried out, and the results suggested some likely carcinogenic effects due to PAHs especially in children exposed during current recreational swimming and adults working in low technology sand extraction. PMID:26303092

  5. Risk Analysis and Uncertainty: Implications for Counselling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassenzahl, David

    2004-01-01

    Over the past two decades, the risk analysis community has made substantial advances in understanding and describing uncertainty. Uncertainty is ubiquitous, complex, both quantitative and qualitative in nature, and often irreducible. Uncertainty thus creates a challenge when using risk analysis to evaluate the rationality of group and individual…

  6. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  7. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  8. Practical Education through Risk Assessment Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokai, Akihiro

    Although, the staff for assessing environmental risk of chemicals is required in individual units of industrial sectors, there are very few systemic academic curriculums on risk assessment of chemicals in Japanese institutions of higher education. In order to meet such a social needs, Osaka University opened a limited-period program of environmental risk management for both students and working people in 2005. The author describes the contribution of his experience in offering a course on environmental risk assessment of chemicals as a part of the program. The course afforded students a kind of practical training for risk assessment. This paper also involves what to do for strengthening the education activity of risk assessment.

  9. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  10. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  11. Influence of light, nutrients, and temperature on the toxicity of atrazine to the algal species Raphidocelis subcapitata: Implications for the risk assessment of herbicides.

    PubMed

    Baxter, Leilan; Brain, Richard A; Lissemore, Linda; Solomon, Keith R; Hanson, Mark L; Prosser, Ryan S

    2016-10-01

    The acute toxicity of herbicides to algae is commonly assessed under conditions (e.g., light intensity, water temperature, concentration of nutrients, pH) prescribed by standard test protocols. However, the observed toxicity may vary with changes in one or more of these parameters. This study examined variation in toxicity of the herbicide atrazine to a representative green algal species Raphidocelis subcapitata (formerly Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) with changes in light intensity, water temperature, concentrations of nutrients or combinations of these three parameters. Conditions were chosen that could be representative of the intensive corn growing Midwestern region of the United States of America where atrazine is used extensively. Varying light intensity (4-58µmol/m(2)s) resulted in no observable trend in 96-h EC50 values for growth rate. EC50 values for PSII yield generally increased with decreasing light intensity but not significantly in all cases. The 96-h EC50 values for growth rate decreased with decreases in temperature (20-5°C) from standard conditions (25°C), but EC50 values for PSII yield at lower temperatures were not significantly different from standard conditions. Finally, there was no clear trend in 96-h EC50 values for both endpoints with increases in nitrogen (4.1-20mg/L) and phosphorus (0.24-1.2mg/L). The 96-h EC50 values for both endpoints under combinations of conditions mimicking aquatic systems in the Midwestern U.S. were not significantly different from EC50 values generated under standard test conditions. This combination of decreased light intensity and temperature and increased nutrients relative to standard conditions does not appear to significantly affect the observed toxicity of atrazine to R. subcapitata. For atrazine specifically, and for perhaps other herbicides, this means current laboratory protocols are useful for extrapolating to effects on algae under realistic environmental conditions. PMID:27340884

  12. An assessment of health-care students’ attitudes toward patients with or at high risk for HIV: implications for education and cultural competency

    PubMed Central

    Jin, Harry; Earnshaw, Valerie A.; Wickersham, Jeffrey A.; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Desai, Mayur M.; John, Jacob; Altice, Frederick L.

    2014-01-01

    Stigma perpetuated by health-care providers has been found to be a barrier to care for vulnerable populations, including HIV-infected, people who inject drugs (PWIDs), and men who have sex with men (MSM) in multiple clinical contexts and remains unexamined among professional health-care students in Malaysia. This cross-sectional, anonymous, and Internet-based survey assessed the attitudes of medical and dental students toward HIV-infected, PWID, and MSM patients. Survey invitation was emailed to 3191 students at 8 professional schools; 1296 (40.6%) responded and scored their attitudes toward these patient groups using a feeling thermometer, indicating their attitudes on a sliding scale from 0 (most negative) to 100 (most positive). Compared to general patients (mean = 76.50), the mean scores for HIV-infected (mean = 54.04; p < 0.001), PWID (mean = 37.50; p < 0.001), and MSM (mean=32.13; p < 0.001) patients were significantly lower and significantly different between each group comparison. Within group differences, most notably religion, ethnicity, and personally knowing someone from these populations were associated with significant differences in attitudes. No differences were noted between pre-clinical and clinical year of training. Health-care students represent the next generation of clinicians who will be responsible for future HIV prevention and treatment efforts. Our findings suggest alarmingly negative attitudes toward these patients, especially MSM, necessitating prompt and effective interventions designed to ameliorate the negative attitudes of health-care students toward vulnerable populations, specifically HIV-infected, PWID, and MSM patients in Malaysia. PMID:24625279

  13. A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1994-10-17

    Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP).

  14. An assessment of health-care students' attitudes toward patients with or at high risk for HIV: implications for education and cultural competency.

    PubMed

    Jin, Harry; Earnshaw, Valerie A; Wickersham, Jeffrey A; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Desai, Mayur M; John, Jacob; Altice, Frederick L

    2014-01-01

    Stigma perpetuated by health-care providers has been found to be a barrier to care for vulnerable populations, including HIV-infected, people who inject drugs (PWIDs), and men who have sex with men (MSM) in multiple clinical contexts and remains unexamined among professional health-care students in Malaysia. This cross-sectional, anonymous, and Internet-based survey assessed the attitudes of medical and dental students toward HIV-infected, PWID, and MSM patients. Survey invitation was emailed to 3191 students at 8 professional schools; 1296 (40.6%) responded and scored their attitudes toward these patient groups using a feeling thermometer, indicating their attitudes on a sliding scale from 0 (most negative) to 100 (most positive). Compared to general patients (mean = 76.50), the mean scores for HIV-infected (mean = 54.04; p < 0.001), PWID (mean = 37.50; p < 0.001), and MSM (mean = 32.13; p < 0.001) patients were significantly lower and significantly different between each group comparison. Within group differences, most notably religion, ethnicity, and personally knowing someone from these populations were associated with significant differences in attitudes. No differences were noted between pre-clinical and clinical year of training. Health-care students represent the next generation of clinicians who will be responsible for future HIV prevention and treatment efforts. Our findings suggest alarmingly negative attitudes toward these patients, especially MSM, necessitating prompt and effective interventions designed to ameliorate the negative attitudes of health-care students toward vulnerable populations, specifically HIV-infected, PWID, and MSM patients in Malaysia. PMID:24625279

  15. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  17. RESEARCH NEEDS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF INHALED PARTICULATE MATTER: REPORT OF A WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent studies have shown that insoluble, biochemically inert particles, small enough to deposit in the deep lung, are capable of inducing carcinogenic as well as pathological effects. hese findings have important implications for risk assessment, especially since particulate mat...

  18. Risk assessments by female victims of intimate partner violence: predictors of risk perceptions and comparison to an actuarial measure.

    PubMed

    Connor-Smith, Jennifer K; Henning, Kris; Moore, Stephanie; Holdford, Robert

    2011-08-01

    Recent studies support the validity of both structured risk assessment tools and victim perceptions as predictors of risk for repeat intimate partner violence (IPV). Combining structured risk assessments and victim risk assessments leads to better predictions of repeat violence than either alone, suggesting that the two forms of assessment provide unique and complementary information. However, very little is known about elements involved in women's risk assessments. The present study explores predictors of women's risk assessment and differences in factors linked to victim and actuarial risk assessments in a large sample of women (N = 728) shortly after the arrest of their male partner for IPV. In multivariate analyses, women's risk assessments were strongly related to past relationship violence and their partner's substance abuse but weakly related to demographic factors, family constellation, and the partner's criminal history. Women who perceived high risk but had a low risk score on an actuarial measure were more likely to report the presence of dynamic risk factors, such as escalating violence and violence during separations, along with a history of emotional and psychological abuse. Qualitative findings paralleled quantitative findings, with women's stated reasons for expecting high or low risk indicating that women were attending to IPV history and dynamic factors. Implications for risk assessment and safety planning are discussed. PMID:20841332

  19. Probation officers' perceptions of youths' risk of reoffending and use of risk assessment in case management.

    PubMed

    Perrault, Rachael T; Paiva-Salisbury, Melissa; Vincent, Gina M

    2012-01-01

    Juvenile probation officers (JPOs) are required to make numerous decisions about the case management of young offenders on a daily basis. This multi-site study examined JPOs' (N=64) perceptions of the typical youth's risk of reoffending before implementation of a risk/needs assessment (RNA) tool, and their self-reported, case management decision-making after implementation of an RNA tool. Results indicated that JPOs tended to overestimate the likely base rates of reoffending while RNA tool estimates were more accurate. Further, most JPOs appeared to be making service referral and placement decisions commensurate with youths' risk levels, regardless of whether they claimed to use the RNA tool in their decisions. Variability in application of risk to case management practices was more a function of the probation office than of the specific JPO. Implications for use of risk assessment in juvenile probation are discussed. PMID:22740174

  20. Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa. PMID:23880010

  1. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on compl...

  2. Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the ECOTOXicology Database (ECOTOX; Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  3. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  4. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  5. NEUROTOXICOLOGY IN REGULATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper is to be published in the proceedings of a conference on learning disabilities. It summarizes the need for neurotoxicology data in risk assessment, the regulatory agencies which have authority to require toxicity testing, the overall process of risk assessment and the p...

  6. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  7. DRAFT PROPOSED GUIDELINES FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document is part of a continuing, long-term effort to develop Agency-wide ecological risk assessment guidelines for EPA. The goal of the guidelines is to improve the quality and consistency of the Agency's ecological risk assessments. These guidelines move beyond the Agency'...

  8. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process. PMID:12298344

  9. Approximate risk assessment prioritizes remedial decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Bergmann, E.P. )

    1993-08-01

    Approximate risk assessment (ARA) is a management tool that prioritizes cost/benefit options for risk reduction decisions. Management needs a method that quantifies how much control is satisfactory for each level of risk reduction. Two risk matrices develop a scheme that estimates the necessary control a unit should implement with its present probability and severity of consequences/disaster. A second risk assessment matrix attaches a dollar value to each failure possibility at various severities. Now HPI operators can see the cost and benefit for each control step contemplated and justify returns based on removing the likelihood of the disaster.

  10. Dynamic risk simulation to assess risk along roads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voumard, Jérémie; Caspar, Olivier; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2013-04-01

    Risk generated through natural hazards on roads is usually calculated with an equation which integrates various parameters of hazard and traffic. These are static variables as hazard frequency and number of vehicles crossing the dangerous section. This traditional methodology cannot take into account the dynamic variations of traffic and interactions between vehicles such as speeds modifications due to the section sinuosity, slowdowns resulting saturated traffic or creation of vehicles columns in front of traffic lights. The influence of traffic dynamics on the risk estimation is not addressed with the standard methodologies. Here we show, with the help of a dynamic traffic simulator specially developed for this project, that the variations of traffic greatly influence the risk results. Several sections of an alpine road in Switzerland were analyzed with the method of dynamic risk and compared with the results of the conventional method of risk calculation. It was possible to demonstrate that risk significantly increases on sinuous sections with the decreasing of vehicles speed. It has been highlighted that well positioned traffic lights, outside the risk area, can prevent a risk increase during a construction site, while a column of vehicles located within the danger zone greatly increases the risk. These results demonstrate the importance to consider the traffic in a dynamic way to assess risk to the closest field reality. Thus, recommendations to reduce risk on the roads can be given using a dynamic traffic simulator, modeling interactions between vehicles. Eventually, dynamic risk assessment can also be integrated into existing methodologies that consider only static parameters.

  11. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  12. EPA ACTIVITIES TO PREPARE FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS OF GENOMICS INFORMATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Genomics will have significant implications for risk assessment and regulatory decision making. Since 2002, the U.S. EPA has undertaken a number of cross-Agency activities to further prepare itself to receive,interpret and apply genomics information for risk assessment and regul...

  13. Environmental radiation: risk benchmarks or benchmarking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bates, Matthew E; Valverde, L James; Vogel, John T; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    In the wake of the compound March 2011 nuclear disaster at the Fukushima I nuclear power plant in Japan, international public dialogue has repeatedly turned to questions of the accuracy of current risk assessment processes to assess nuclear risks and the adequacy of existing regulatory risk thresholds to protect us from nuclear harm. We confront these issues with an emphasis on learning from the incident in Japan for future US policy discussions. Without delving into a broader philosophical discussion of the general social acceptance of the risk, the relative adequacy of existing US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk thresholds is assessed in comparison with the risk thresholds of federal agencies not currently under heightened public scrutiny. Existing NRC thresholds are found to be among the most conservative in the comparison, suggesting that the agency's current regulatory framework is consistent with larger societal ideals. In turning to risk assessment methodologies, the disaster in Japan does indicate room for growth. Emerging lessons seem to indicate an opportunity to enhance resilience through systemic levels of risk aggregation. Specifically, we believe bringing systemic reasoning to the risk management process requires a framework that (i) is able to represent risk-based knowledge and information about a panoply of threats; (ii) provides a systemic understanding (and representation) of the natural and built environments of interest and their dependencies; and (iii) allows for the rational and coherent valuation of a range of outcome variables of interest, both tangible and intangible. Rather than revisiting the thresholds themselves, we see the goal of future nuclear risk management in adopting and implementing risk assessment techniques that systemically evaluate large-scale socio-technical systems with a view toward enhancing resilience and minimizing the potential for surprise. PMID:21608107

  14. Predicting the use of Individualized Risk Assessment for Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Bartle-Haring, Suzanne; Toviessi, Paula; Katafiasz, Heather

    2008-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the decision to obtain individualized risk assessment after a breast cancer education session. Methods A sample of both African American and Caucasian women was used to determine if there were differences by race/ethnicity in uptake of the assessment and differences in the variables that were most predictive of uptake. The sample included 166 women between the ages of 18 and 80. Sixty-two percent of the sample were African American women. Key Findings The results suggested that African American women and Caucasian women used different factors and used other factors differently to decide whether or not to obtain an individualized risk assessment. Conclusions and Implications These results are discussed within the context of health disparities among ethnic minority and Caucasian women with implications for breast cancer control programs. The results of this study would suggest that knowledge alone does not lead to opting for a personalized risk assessment, and that African American and Caucasian women use different pieces of information, or information differently to make decision about getting more personalized information about risk. PMID:18319147

  15. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  16. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments - A Review.

    PubMed

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-03-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  17. Assessing risk from a stakeholder perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, L. P.

    2003-01-01

    Planetary exploration missions are subject to a vast array of interpretations of 'success' based on the concerns of multiple stakeholder groups. While project risk management generally focuses on issues of cost/schedule constraints or reliability issues, a broader interpretation of 'risk' as it applies to stakeholders such as sponsors (e.g., NASA), the public at large, the scientific community, the home organization, and the project team itself can provide important insights into the full spectrum of risk that needs to be managed. This paper presents a stakeholder view of risk which is divided into failure, not-a-failure, success, and stunning-success zones. Using the Mars Pathfinder mission as an example, an alternative interpretation of the risks to that mission is presented from the view of key stakeholders. The implications of the stakeholder perspective to project risk management are addressed.

  18. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  19. Suicide risk assessment in high-risk adolescents.

    PubMed

    Gray, Barbara P; Dihigo, Sharolyn K

    2015-09-13

    A significant number of adolescents experience depression and other mental health disorders that may put them at risk for suicide. Mental health assessment is an important component of primary healthcare. Depression and suicide risk screening can assist healthcare providers in preventing suicides. PMID:26262455

  1. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

  2. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  3. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B.; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. PMID:25804424

  4. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  5. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  6. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR COKE OVENS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-m...

  7. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Butler, J.P.

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often by as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per=kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessment for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  8. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Biwer, B M; Butler, J P

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations. PMID:10765454

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

    1995-01-01

    Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

  10. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    PubMed

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. PMID:23982989

  11. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do. PMID:20846169

  12. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  13. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  14. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  15. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  16. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  17. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  18. Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans and environmental species are rarely exposed to single chemicals. These chemicals typically affect multiple tissues through multiple modes of action, which may depend on the dose. Mixtures risk assessment may employ dose response information from the mixture of interest,...

  19. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  20. GUIDELINES FOR CARCINOGEN RISK ASSESSMENT (1986)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 1983, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS)/National Research Council (NRC) published its report entitled Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process. In that report, the NRC recommended that Federal regulatory agencies establish "inference guidelines" to ...

  1. TOXICOLOGICAL BASIS FOR DRINKING WATER RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is charged with protecting human health and the environment. Environmental protection decisions are often guided by risk assessments that are used to develop regulatory policy and other related guidance. Historically, in environmen...

  2. Self-Control Assessments and Implications for Predicting Adolescent Offending.

    PubMed

    Fine, Adam; Steinberg, Laurence; Frick, Paul J; Cauffman, Elizabeth

    2016-04-01

    Although low self-control is consistently related to adolescent offending, it is unknown whether self-report measures or laboratory behavior tasks yield better predictive utility, or if a combination yields incremental predictive power. This is particularly important because developmental theory indicates that self-control is related to adolescent offending and, consequently, risk assessments rely on self-control measures. The present study (a) examines relationships between self-reported self-control on the Weinberger Adjustment Inventory with Go/No-Go response inhibition, and (b) compares the predictive utility of both assessment strategies for short- and long-term adolescent reoffending. It uses longitudinal data from the Crossroads Study of male, first-time adolescent offenders ages 13-17 (N = 930; 46 % Hispanic/Latino, 37 % Black/African-American, 15 % non-Hispanic White, 2 % other race). The results of the study indicate that the measures are largely unrelated, and that the self-report measure is a better indicator of both short- and long-term reoffending. The laboratory task measure does not add value to what is already predicted by the self-report measure. Implications for assessing self-control during adolescence and consequences of assessment strategy are discussed. PMID:26792266

  3. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  4. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    PubMed Central

    MacDonell, Margaret M.; Haroun, Lynne A.; Teuschler, Linda K.; Rice, Glenn E.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Butler, James P.; Chang, Young-Soo; Clark, Shanna L.; Johns, Alan P.; Perry, Camarie S.; Garcia, Shannon S.; Jacobi, John H.; Scofield, Marcienne A.

    2013-01-01

    The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) environmental fate and transport; (3) exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4) toxicity analysis; and (5) risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities. PMID:23762048

  5. Assessment and Self-Injury: Implications for Counselors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craigen, Laurie M.; Healey, Amanda C.; Walley, Cynthia T.; Byrd, Rebekah; Schuster, Jennifer

    2010-01-01

    This article provides readers with an understanding of self-injury assessment. The article begins with a critical review of a number of self-injury assessments. The latter section of the article introduces a comprehensive two-tiered approach to accurately assessing self-injury. Implications for counselors related to the assessment of self-injury…

  6. MULTIMEDIA HUMAN EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposures and health risk comparisons from different sites may be used for allocating limited resources available for remedial action. It is important that comparisons between different sites use similar levels of site-specific data and/or screening level data. Risk assessment c...

  7. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  8. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  9. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  10. PROPOSED GUIDELINES FOR CARCINOGEN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment were published in the Federal Register on April 23, 1996 (Federal Register: 17960-18011) for a 120-day public review and comment period. The Proposed Guidelines are a revision of EPA's 1986 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Ass...

  11. 2009 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 27-30, 2009 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  12. NANOTECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT CASE STUDY WORKSHOPS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Nanotechnology is expected to present both benefits and risks to human health and the environment. The assessment of risks related to nanotechnology requires information on the potential for exposure to, and adverse effects of, nanomaterials and their by-products. To help ensure...

  13. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor destroyed by biological a...

  14. FRAMEWORK FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT (REVIEW DRAFT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several reports have highlighted the importance of understanding the accumulation of risks from multiple environmental stressors. These include the National Research Council's 1994 report Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment and the 1997 report by the Presidential/Cong...

  15. 2008 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2008 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 14 - 17, 2008 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk ...

  16. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    PubMed

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  17. There is more to risk and safety planning than dramatic risks: Mental health nurses' risk assessment and safety-management practice.

    PubMed

    Higgins, Agnes; Doyle, Louise; Downes, Carmel; Morrissey, Jean; Costello, Paul; Brennan, Michael; Nash, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Risk assessment and safety planning are considered a cornerstone of mental health practice, yet limited research exists into how mental health nurses conceptualize 'risk' and how they engage with risk assessment and safety planning. The aim of the present study was to explore mental health nurses' practices and confidence in risk assessment and safety planning. A self-completed survey was administered to 381 mental health nurses in Ireland. The findings indicate that nurses focus on risk to self and risk to others, with the risk of suicide, self-harm, substance abuse, and violence being most frequently assessed. Risk from others and 'iatrogenic' risk were less frequently considered. Overall, there was limited evidence of recovery-oriented practice in relation to risk. The results demonstrate a lack of meaningful engagement with respect to collaborative safety planning, the identification and inclusion of protective factors, and the inclusion of positive risk-taking opportunities. In addition, respondents report a lack of confidence working with positive risk taking and involving family/carers in the risk-assessment and safety-planning process. Gaps in knowledge about risk-assessment and safety-planning practice, which could be addressed through education, are identified, as are the implications of the findings for practice and research. PMID:26632975

  18. Ethics is an essential dimension of first-trimester risk assessment for trisomy 21.

    PubMed

    Chervenak, Frank A; McCullough, Laurence B

    2008-04-01

    We identify the clinical implications of the ethics of informed consent for risk assessment for trisomy 21. Based on the ethics of informed consent, we argue that routinely offering first-trimester risk assessment in centers qualified to provide it is ethically obligatory. We describe how pregnant women can be expected to respond to this offer. We then argue that routinely withholding the results of first-trimester risk assessment is ethically unjustified. The ethics of informed consent is an essential dimension of first-trimester risk assessment for trisomy 21. PMID:18450138

  19. Training for suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M; Berman, Alan L

    2014-10-01

    Suicide and suicidal behaviors are highly associated with psychiatric disorders. Psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment (SRA) is a core competency requirement, many lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation (SRF) sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. An SRA gathers data about observable and reported symptoms, behaviors, and historical factors that are associated with suicide risk and protection, ascertained by way of psychiatric interview; collateral information from family, friends, and medical records; and psychometric scales and/or screening tools. Based on data collected via an SRA, an SRF is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment plans, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the need for a revised training model in SRA and SRF, and proposes a model of training that incorporates the acquisition of skills, relying heavily on case application exercises. PMID:25059537

  20. [Individual risk assessment of caries].

    PubMed

    Schaeken, M J; Mikx, F H

    1992-06-01

    The estimation of individual caries risk factors and the related preventive treatment in the dental practice are discussed. Salivary counts of mutans streptococci and lactobacilli reflect the bacteriological attack (mutans streptococci) and sugar intake (lactobacilli). Caries resistance can be estimated by measurement of the salivary secretion rate and buffer capacity. Treatment of high caries risk patients should be directed against etiological factors. Salivary flow rates and buffer capacity can be stimulated by daily (sugar-free) gum-chewing. For the use of fluoridated toothpaste and sugar intake the dentist is dependent upon the cooperation of the patient. The bacteriological factor in the caries process can be suppressed by application of chlorhexidine varnish. PMID:11820133

  1. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  2. APPLICATION OF FETAX IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A workshop sponsored by NIEHS in 2000 evaluated the use of FETAX as a screening method for identifying the developmental toxicity potenial of chemical and environmental samples. Workshop recommendations pertinent to environmental risk assessment suggested that additional comparat...

  3. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  4. The influence of family history on prostate cancer risk: implications for clinical management.

    PubMed

    Madersbacher, Stephan; Alcaraz, Antonio; Emberton, Mark; Hammerer, Peter; Ponholzer, Anton; Schröder, Fritz H; Tubaro, Andrea

    2011-03-01

    • The most recent evidence for the link between a family history of prostate cancer and individual risk for future disease was examined, with the aim of understanding what the existence and nature of a family history of prostate cancer does to a man's risk of developing the disease. • Our findings highlighted the clear association between a family history of prostate cancer and increased risk of developing the disease; with a greater proximity of relatedness, greater number of family members affected and/or earlier age at diagnosis of the family member elevating risk further. • These findings have important clinical implications for the identification and subsequent management of men deemed to be at increased risk of developing prostate cancer. The evidence for prostate cancer risk reduction with the mono 5α-reductase inhibitor (5ARI) finasteride in a low-risk population and, more recently, with the dual 5ARI dutasteride in a population at increased risk of developing the disease, has potential to expand management options for men at risk of developing prostate cancer beyond more frequent and/or earlier surveillance. • Given that family history can be easily assessed in routine clinical practice, it should be regarded as an important parameter to consider alongside PSA level for prostate cancer risk assessment. PMID:21166744

  5. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  6. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  7. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  8. Seismic risk assessment for Yerevan city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durgaryan, Raffi

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to conduct a seismic risk assessment for the territory of Yerevan city with the aim to evaluate potential earthquake hazard and associated risk and losses. This study enables the assessment of seismic risk in the city and evaluates the geographical distribution of potential human and building losses due to proposed earthquake scenarios. The results of this study are presented in form of various mapped seismic hazard parameters such as peak ground acceleration, spectral acceleration, as well as assessed parameters for expected life, building and lifeline losses. The study has been the first of its kind for Yerevan city that will serve as the first step in building a risk analysis tools to be used by governmental entities and other organizations for planning future disaster response efforts.

  9. Risk assessment as a framework for decisions.

    SciTech Connect

    Rechard, Robert Paul; McKenna, Sean Andrew; Borns, David James

    2010-12-01

    The risk assessment approach has been applied to support numerous radioactive waste management activities over the last 30 years. A risk assessment methodology provides a solid and readily adaptable framework for evaluating the risks of CO2 sequestration in geologic formations to prioritize research, data collection, and monitoring schemes. This paper reviews the tasks of a risk assessment, and provides a few examples related to each task. This paper then describes an application of sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters to reduce the uncertainty in the performance of a geologic repository for radioactive waste repository, which because of importance of the geologic barrier, is similar to CO2 sequestration. The paper ends with a simple stochastic analysis of idealized CO2 sequestration site with a leaking abandoned well and a set of monitoring wells in an aquifer above the CO2 sequestration unit in order to evaluate the efficacy of monitoring wells to detect adverse leakage.

  10. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  11. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  12. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  13. Cardiac risk assessment: decreasing postoperative complications.

    PubMed

    Thanavaro, Joanne L

    2015-02-01

    Preoperative cardiac assessment helps identify patients undergoing noncardiac surgery who are at risk for significant postoperative cardiac complications and those who may benefit from additional preoperative evaluation and perioperative care. Advanced practice nurses can identify surgery- and patient-related risks by conducting a thorough health history and physical examination. Multiple risk indices and evidence-based guidelines are available to inform health care providers regarding patient evaluation and strategies to reduce postoperative cardiac risk. In general, preoperative tests are recommended only if the findings will influence medical therapy or perioperative monitoring or will require postponement of surgery until a cardiac condition can be corrected or stabilized. Medication management is a crucial component of the preoperative assessment; providers may need to initiate the use of beta-blockers and make decisions regarding continuing or withholding antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy. Preoperative cardiac risk stratification, medication reconciliation, and device management are essential for providing safe care for patients. PMID:25645037

  14. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-11-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  15. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  16. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    SciTech Connect

    Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.; Sanzo, D.L.

    1997-08-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.

  17. A Statewide Writing Assessment Model: Student Proficiency and Future Implications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dappen, Leon; Isernhagen, Jody; Anderson, Sue

    2008-01-01

    This paper is an examination of statewide district writing achievement gain data from the Nebraska Statewide Writing Assessment system and implications for statewide assessment writing models. The writing assessment program is used to gain compliance with the United States No Child Left Behind Law (NCLB), a federal effort to influence school…

  18. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  19. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  20. Reliability and risk assessment of structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.

    1991-01-01

    Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

  1. Assessment of Risk for Recurrent Diverticulitis

    PubMed Central

    Sallinen, Ville; Mali, Juha; Leppäniemi, Ari; Mentula, Panu

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Recurrence of acute diverticulitis is common, and—especially complicated recurrence—causes significant morbidity. To prevent recurrence, selected patients have been offered prophylactic sigmoid resection. However, as there is no tool to predict whose diverticulitis will recur and, in particular, who will have complicated recurrence, the indications for sigmoid resections have been variable. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors predicting recurrence of acute diverticulitis. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting with computed tomography–confirmed acute diverticulitis and treated nonresectionally during 2006 to 2010. Risk factors for recurrence were identified using uni- and multivariate Cox regression. A total of 512 patients were included. History of diverticulitis was an independent risk factor predicting uncomplicated recurrence of diverticulitis (1–2 earlier diverticulitis HR 1.6, 3 or more—HR 3.2). History of diverticulitis (HR 3.3), abscess (HR 6.2), and corticosteroid medication (HR 16.1) were independent risk factors for complicated recurrence. Based on regression coefficients, risk scoring was created: 1 point for history of diverticulitis, 2 points for abscess, and 3 points for corticosteroid medication. The risk score was unable to predict uncomplicated recurrence (AUC 0.48), but was able to predict complicated recurrence (AUC 0.80). Patients were further divided into low-risk (0–2 points) and high-risk (>2 points) groups. Low-risk and high-risk groups had 3% and 43% 5-year complicated recurrence rates, respectively. Risk for complicated recurrence of acute diverticulitis can be assessed using risk scoring. The risk for uncomplicated recurrence increases along with increasing number of previous diverticulitis. PMID:25715253

  2. Dynamic risk simulation to assess risk along roads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voumard, J.; Caspar, O.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2013-04-01

    Risk generated by natural hazards on roads is usually calculated with equations integrating various parameters related to hazard and traffic. These are static variables, like a rockfall hazard estimation for a road section or the average number of vehicles crossing this section every day. This methodology cannot take into account dynamic variations of traffic and interactions between vehicles such as speed modifications due to the sinuosity, slowdowns resulting of saturated traffic or vehicles columns forming in front of traffic lights. The influence of traffic dynamics on the risk estimation is not assessed with standard methodologies. Here we show, by mean of a dynamic traffic simulator, that the traffic variations may greatly influence the risk estimation over time. The risk is analysed on several alpine road sections in Switzerland using a dynamic vehicles approach and compared with the results of the static methodology. It demonstrates that risk significantly increases on sinuous sections because of the decreasing of vehicles speed. A more realistic risk can be obtained from a dynamic approach especially on mountain roads. A dynamic traffic simulator, modelling interactions between vehicles is a helpful tool to support decision making to reduce risk on roads.

  3. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders. PMID:26781555

  4. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  5. The risk implications of approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous waste contaminated sites

    SciTech Connect

    Labieniec, P.A.

    1994-08-01

    An integrated exposure and carcinogenic risk assessment model for organic contamination in soil, SoilRisk, was developed and used for evaluating the risk implications of both site-specific and uniform-concentration approaches to setting soil remediation goals at hazardous-waste-contaminated sites. SoilRisk was applied to evaluate the uncertainty in the risk estimate due to uncertainty in site conditions at a representative site. It was also used to evaluate the variability in risk across a region of sites that can occur due to differences in site characteristics that affect contaminant transport and fate when a uniform concentration approach is used. In evaluating regional variability, Ross County, Ohio and the State of Ohio were used as examples. All analyses performed considered four contaminants (benzene, trichloroethylene (TCE), chlordane, and benzo[a]pyrene (BAP)) and four exposure scenarios (commercial, recreational and on- and offsite residential). Regardless of whether uncertainty in risk at a single site or variability in risk across sites was evaluated, the exposure scenario specified and the properties of the target contaminant had more influence than variance in site parameters on the resulting variance and magnitude of the risk estimate. In general, variance in risk was found to be greater for the relatively less degradable and more mobile of the chemicals studied (TCE and chlordane) than for benzene which is highly degradable and BAP which is very immobile in the subsurface.

  6. Supplemental risk-assessment guidance for the Superfund program. Part 1. Guidance for Public-Health Risk Assessments. Part 2. Guidance for ecological Risk Assessments. Draft report (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-06-01

    This guidance manual was developed to address the practical aspects and issues pertaining to the Superfund risk-assessment process for both public health and environment concerns. Part 1, Guidance for Public Health Risk Assessments, supplements the Superfund Public Health Evaluation Manual and Superfund Exposure Assessment Manual and the Endangerment Assessment Handbook. Explicit guidance on technical matters which should be followed in developing public health risk assessments for EPA Region 1. The guidance addresses hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and uncertainty/limitations. Part 2 of the manual, Guidance for Ecological Risk Assessments, addresses the collection of site-specific data needed to support an ecological risk assessment, describes a framework for conducting the assessments, and provides several specific approaches for assessing risks to systems exposed to chemical contamination in different media.

  7. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  8. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  9. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  10. Cancer Risk Assessment: Should New Science be Applied? Workgroup summary

    SciTech Connect

    Richard J. Bull; Antone L. Brooks

    2002-12-15

    OAK-B135 A symposium discussing the implications of certain phenomena observed in radiation biology for cancer risk assessment in general. In July of 2002 a workshop was convened that explored some of the intercellular phenomena that appear to condition responses to carcinogen exposure. Effects that result from communication between cells that appear to either increase the sphere of damage or to modify the sensitivity of cells to further damage were of particular interest. Much of the discussion focused on the effects of ionizing radiation that were transmitted from cells directly hit to cells not receiving direct exposure to radiation (bystander cells). In cell culture, increased rates of mutation, chromosomal aberration, apoptosis, genomic instability, and decreased clonogenic survival have all been observed in cells that have experienced no direct radiation. In addition, there is evidence that low doses of radiation or certain chemicals give rise to adaptive responses in which the treated cells develop resistance to the effects of high doses given in subsequent exposures. Data were presented at the workshop indicating that low dose exposure of animals to radiation and some chemicals frequently reduces the spontaneous rate of mutation in vitro and tumor responses in vivo. Finally, it was concluded that considerable improvement in understanding of how genetic variation may modify the impact of these phenomena is necessary before the risk implications can be fully appreciated. The workshop participants discussed the substantive challenge that these data present with respect to simple linear methodologies that are currently used in cancer risk assessment and attempted to identify broad strategies by which these phenomena may start to be used to refine cancer risk assessment methods in the future.

  11. Risk Assessment with Adolescent Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulides, T. E.; Richardson, G.; Graham, F.; Kennedy, P. J.; Kelly, T. P.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the…

  12. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  13. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR WETLANDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This volume represents the proceedings of a workshop held from 30 July-3 August 1995 at Fairmont Hot Springs, Montana. The workshop was designed to meet the scientific and regulatory need for current information describing ecotoxicology and risk assessment for wetlands. Professio...

  14. Chemical Mixtures: Cancer Risk Assessment Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation will describe how EPA uses linear and nonlinear methods to derive cancer slope factors and reference doses,respectively, for single carcinogens, as described in EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. Then, the presentation will show how these toxicity ...

  15. GUIDELINES FOR CARCINOGEN RISK ASSESSMENT (1996)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA's cancer guidelines set forth recommended principles and procedures to guide EPA scientists in assessing the cancer risks from chemicals or other agents in the environment. They also inform EPA decision makers and the public about these procedures. EPA published final cancer...

  16. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  17. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report was prepared by an interagency work group under the auspices of the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR). The objective of the work group was to write a document on the major uses of ecological risk assessment by Federal agencies. Eight task groups we...

  18. EPIDEMIOLOGY IN RISK ASSESSMENT FOR REGULATORY POLICY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Epidemiology and risk assessment have several of the features needed to make the difficult decisions required in setting standards for levels of toxic agents in the workplace and environment. hey differ in their aims, orientation, and time scale. While the distribution of disease...

  19. PROPOSED GUIDELINES FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Proposed Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment were published in the Federal Register on September 9, 1996 (61 FR 47552) for a 90 day public review and comment period. The Proposed Guidelines are being developed to improve the quality of and consistency among EPA's ecolog...

  20. Computational Toxicology in Cancer Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment over the last half century has, for many individual cases served us well, but has proceeded on an extremely slow pace and has left us with considerable uncertainty. There are certainly thousands of compounds and thousands of exposure scenarios that remain unteste...

  1. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  2. PREGNANCY RISK ASSESSMENT MONITORING SYSTEM (PRAMS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    PRAMS, the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, is an ongoing state-specific population based surveillance system of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state health departments designed to improve the health of mothers and infants by reducing adverse...

  3. Clinical Model for Suicide Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kral, Michael J.; Sakinofsky, Isaac

    1994-01-01

    Presents suicide risk assessment in a two-tiered model comprising background/contextual factors and subjectivity. The subjectivity portion is formulated around Shneidman's concepts of perturbation and lethality. Discusses decision of hospital admission versus ambulatory care. Suggests that theoretically informed approach should serve both…

  4. Public Workshops on Issues in Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Workshop Schedule

    • September 2-3, 2015 – Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk Assessment
      This workshop will examine the role that data on epigenetic changes may play...

    • The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

      The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

    • Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

      2007-08-01

      According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

    • New horizons in fracture risk assessment.

      PubMed

      Aspray, Terry J

      2013-09-01

      Fracture is the clinical outcome of concern in osteoporosis, a disease variably defined over the last 30 years, mostly in terms of bone mineral density (BMD). However, an 'osseocentric' view of the condition may have hampered our understanding of how best to identify patients at the greatest risk of fragility fracture. More recently, the identification of a number of clinical risk factors for fragility fracture and the creation of fracture risk assessment tools, such as FRAX®, QFracture and Garvan have helped in a move towards clinically useful definitions, using the common currency of 10-year major osteoporotic and 10-year hip fracture risks. However, there are a large number of available fracture risk assessment tools and there remain few validation studies comparing their performance. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence has recently advocated the use of these methods in case finding and studies are underway in their clinical application. It seems likely that the operational definition of osteoporosis must now include fracture risk, which will never replace fracture incidence as a measure of clinical efficacy but may be used in future studies to define patient groups likely to benefit from intervention. We still need to understand more about the performance of these tools, particularly in the context of specific patient groups, such as those with vertebral osteoporosis, the frail, those who fall and patients with secondary osteoporosis. PMID:23892830

    • Incinerator thermal release valve risk assessment

      SciTech Connect

      Stevens, J.B.

      1998-12-31

      Human health risk assessments were conducted on emissions from several types of incinerators--a hazardous waste combustor, a medical waste/tire combustor, and a refuse derived fuel combustor in three different states. As part of these studies, the short-term emissions from thermal release valves operating during upset conditions were additionally evaluated. The latter assessments addressed two specific risk-related questions: (1) what are the incremental long-term risks/hazards associated with these short-term emissions; (2) what are the acute health hazards associated with these emissions? For each study, emission estimates for both the incinerator stack and the thermal release valve were obtained from the facility. Stack testing was utilized to obtain stack gas concentrations of emissions at one facility; engineering estimates were used to ascertain emissions from the thermal release valve. The two facilities were proposed incinerators, so literature-derived emissions were used throughout.

    • Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

      2013-04-01

      Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

    • Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment

      PubMed Central

      2015-01-01

      More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD. PMID:25650086

    • Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons.

      PubMed Central

      Evangelista de Duffard, A M; Duffard, R

      1996-01-01

      Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone,dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or changes in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. PMID:9182042

    • Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

      NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

      Nickol, Craig L.

      2008-01-01

      A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

    • Assessing calibration of prognostic risk scores.

      PubMed

      Crowson, Cynthia S; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Therneau, Terry M

      2016-08-01

      Current methods used to assess calibration are limited, particularly in the assessment of prognostic models. Methods for testing and visualizing calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration slope) have been well thought out in the binary regression setting. However, extension of these methods to Cox models is less well known and could be improved. We describe a model-based framework for the assessment of calibration in the binary setting that provides natural extensions to the survival data setting. We show that Poisson regression models can be used to easily assess calibration in prognostic models. In addition, we show that a calibration test suggested for use in survival data has poor performance. Finally, we apply these methods to the problem of external validation of a risk score developed for the general population when assessed in a special patient population (i.e. patients with particular comorbidities, such as rheumatoid arthritis). PMID:23907781

    • 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

      NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

      Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

      2010-01-01

      Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

    • Clinical Risk Assessment in Intensive Care Unit

      PubMed Central

      Asefzadeh, Saeed; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad H.; Nikpey, Ahmad; Atighechian, Golrokh

      2013-01-01

      Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin's Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital) through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG) performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN) was in respiratory care “Ventilator's alarm malfunction (no alarm)” with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal “not washing the NG-Tube” with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care. PMID:23930171

    • Risk Factors in Adolescent Substance Abuse: Treatment and Management Implications.

      ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

      Thomas, Connie S.; Schandler, Steven L.

      1996-01-01

      Discusses research on adolescent substance abuse risk factors and their role in the management of adolescent substance abuse disorders. A selective literature review suggests specific intervention strategies; no generic approach fits all adolescent substance-use clients. Effective techniques require individual assessments, including the context in…

    • Health risk implications from simultaneous exposure to multiple environmental contaminants.

      PubMed

      Genthe, B; Le Roux, W J; Schachtschneider, K; Oberholster, P J; Aneck-Hahn, N H; Chamier, J

      2013-07-01

      Water quality has deteriorated in the upper Olifants River system, South Africa, as a result of land use activities which include mining, agriculture and industries. A health risk assessment was conducted from 2009 to 2011 in the catchment to determine the possible risks local communities face from various pollutants such as microbials, heavy metals and oestrogen in the river water and vegetation. Aluminium and manganese accumulated in plants and vanadium and aluminium concentrations found in selective water samples posed significant health risks when consumed. A quantitative microbial risk assessment revealed that the combined risk of infection ranged from 1 to 26 percent with the Norovirus posing the overall greatest health risk. The anticipated disability adjusted life years resulting from drinking untreated water from these sites are in the order of 10,000 times greater than what is considered acceptable. The oestradiol activity, caused by endocrine disrupting compounds in the water, measured above the trigger value of 0.7ngL(-1). Impoverished communities in the area, who partially depend on river water for potable and domestic use, are exposed to immune-compromising metals that increase their probability of infection from waterborne diseases caused by the excess microbial pathogens in the contaminated surface water. PMID:23669339

    • Moving Forward in Human Cancer Risk Assessment

      PubMed Central

      Paules, Richard S.; Aubrecht, Jiri; Corvi, Raffaella; Garthoff, Bernward; Kleinjans, Jos C.

      2011-01-01

      Background The current safety paradigm for assessing carcinogenic properties of drugs, cosmetics, industrial chemicals, and environmental exposures relies mainly on in vitro genotoxicity testing followed by 2-year rodent bioassays. This testing battery is extremely sensitive but has low specificity. Furthermore, rodent bioassays are associated with high costs, high animal burden, and limited predictive value for human risks. Objectives We provide a response to a growing appeal for a paradigm change in human cancer risk assessment. Methods To facilitate development of a road map for this needed paradigm change in carcinogenicity testing, a workshop titled “Genomics in Cancer Risk Assessment” brought together toxicologists from academia and industry and government regulators and risk assessors from the United States and the European Union. Participants discussed the state-of-the-art in developing alternative testing strategies for carcinogenicity, with emphasis on potential contributions from omics technologies. Results and Conclusions The goal of human risk assessment is to decide whether a given exposure to an agent is acceptable to human health and to provide risk management measures based on evaluating and predicting the effects of exposures on human health. Although exciting progress is being made using genomics approaches, a new paradigm that uses these methods and human material when possible would provide mechanistic insights that may inform new predictive approaches (e.g., in vitro assays) and facilitate the development of genomics-derived biomarkers. Regulators appear to be willing to accept such approaches where use is clearly defined, evidence is strong, and approaches are qualified for regulatory use. PMID:21147607

    • Risk assessment of converting salt caverns to natural gas storage. Final report, November 1994-July 1995

      SciTech Connect

      Harrison, M.R.; Ellis, P.F.

      1995-10-01

      The objective of this paper was an assessment of the risks of release of large quantities of natural gas from salt caverns converted from other uses to the storage of compressed natural gas (CNG). A total of 22 potential root causes for large releases of natural gas from converted salt converns were identified and ranked in terms of relative risk. While this project assessed the relative risks of major gas releases, the absolute risk was determined by implication to be extremely low, as indicated by the historical record.

    • Risk assessment with victims of intimate partner violence: investigating the gap between research and practice.

      PubMed

      Cattaneo, Lauren Bennett; Chapman, Aliya R

      2011-10-01

      In intimate partner violence (IPV) risk assessment, there is consensus that a large gap exists between research and practice. This exploratory study interviewed 13 practitioners working with IPV victims to generate ideas about the nature of this gap, and found that only two conducted standardized risk assessment. Others felt imposing structure might detract from the quality of their work. Results support the need for different techniques in different contexts; some adjust only speed of services according to their risk perception, whereas others use in-depth information to customize services. Perspectives appear particularly disparate regarding victim minimization of risk. Implications for future work are discussed. PMID:21989702

  1. Code System for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2001-03-27

    Version 00 SEISIM1 calculates the probabilities of seismically induced failures for components and systems and propagates these calculations to determine the probability of accident sequences and the resulting total risk, which is quantified as an expected value of radiation release and exposure from a given nuclear power plant. SEISIM1 was developed as a fundamental tool for the systems analysis portion of the NRC's Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP). The SSMRP provides a complete, self-containedmore » methodology to assess and quantify the risk to nuclear power plants from seismic events and seismically induced failures.« less

  2. OVERVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR TOXIC AND PATHOGENIC AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is a process that defines the adverse health consequences of exposure to toxic or pathogenic agents. hen used in regulatory decision making, risk assessment is an important component of risk management, which "combines the risk assessment with the directives of re...

  3. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  4. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  5. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. PMID:26215051

  6. Practice management based on risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sandberg, Hans

    2004-01-01

    The management of a dental practice is most often focused on what clinicians do (production of items), and not so much on what is achieved in terms of oral health. The main reason for this is probably that it is easier to measure production and more difficult to measure health outcome. This paper presents a model based on individual risk assessment that aims to achieve a financially sound economy and good oral health. The close-to-the-clinic management tool, the HIDEP Model (Health Improvement in a DEntal Practice) was pioneered initially in Sweden at the end of 1980s. The experience over a 15-year period with different elements of the model is presented, including: the basis of examination and risk assessment; motivation; task delegation and leadership issues; health-finance evaluations; and quality development within a dental clinic. DentiGroupXL, a software program designed to support the work based on the model, is also described. PMID:15646588

  7. The perinatal assessment of psychosocial risk.

    PubMed

    Haglund, L J; Britton, J R

    1998-06-01

    Although evaluation of psychosocial risk factors prior to perinatal hospital discharge has been advocated, the means for accomplishing such an evaluation are not well established. This article reviews several major psychosocial risk factors together with instruments that have been utilized to assess them during the perinatal period. Formal constructs reviewed include anxiety, depression, self-concept, general attitudes, life events, stress, adaptation, social support, marital and family functioning, and the home environment. Ongoing assessment of psychosocial status using formal instruments during routine perinatal care may provide a more complete picture of the psychosocial needs of the individual mother and her family, allowing for more appropriate, timely intervention and utilization of social and health care resources. PMID:9647002

  8. Assessing the cancer risk from environmental PCBs.

    PubMed Central

    Cogliano, V J

    1998-01-01

    A new approach to assessing the cancer risk from environmental polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) considers both toxicity and environmental processes to make distinctions among environmental mixtures. New toxicity information from a 1996 cancer study of four commercial mixtures strengthens the case that all PCB mixtures can cause cancer, although different mixtures have different potencies. Environmental processes alter PCB mixtures through partitioning, chemical transformation, and preferential bioaccumulation; these processes can increase or decrease toxicity considerably. Bioaccumulated PCBs are of greatest concern because they appear to be more toxic than commercial PCBs and more persistent in the body. The new approach uses toxicity studies of commercial mixtures to develop a range of cancer potency estimates and then considers the effect of environmental processes to choose appropriate values for representative classes of environmental mixtures. Guidance is given for assessing risks from different exposure pathways, less-than-lifetime and early-life exposures, and mixtures containing dioxinlike compounds. PMID:9618347

  9. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  10. Degraded environments alter prey risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2012-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment. PMID:23403754

  11. Cardiovascular risk assessment in women - an update.

    PubMed

    Collins, P; Webb, C M; de Villiers, T J; Stevenson, J C; Panay, N; Baber, R J

    2016-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in postmenopausal women. Although it is a disease of aging, vascular disease initiates much earlier in life. Thus, there is a need to be aware of the potential to prevent the development of the disease from an early age and continue this surveillance throughout life. The menopausal period and early menopause present an ideal opportunity to assess cardiovascular risk and plan accordingly. Generally in this period, women will be seen by primary health-care professionals and non-cardiovascular specialists. This review addresses female-specific risk factors that may contribute to the potential development of cardiovascular disease. It is important for all health-care professionals dealing with women in midlife and beyond to be cognisant of these risk factors and to initiate female-specific preventative measures or to refer to a cardiovascular specialist. PMID:27327421

  12. [Methods of risk assessment and their validation].

    PubMed

    Baracco, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    The review of the literature data shows several methods for the the risks assessment of biomnechanical overload of the musculoskeletal system in activities with repetitive strain of the upper limbs and manual material handling. The application of these methods should allow the quantification ofriskfor the working population, the identification of the preventive measures to reduce the risk and their effectiveness and thle design of a specific health surveillance scheme. In this paper we analyze the factors which must be taken into account in Occupational Medicine to implement a process of validation of these methods. In conclusion we believe it will necessary in the future the availability of new methods able to analyze and reduce the risk already in the design phase of the production process. PMID:25558718

  13. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  14. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-01-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  15. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-11-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  16. Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-Entry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lips, T.; Koppenwallner, G.; Bianchi, L.; Klinkrad, H.

    2009-03-01

    From 2007 to 2008, Hypersonic Technology Göttingen (HTG) worked on a study called Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-entry (RADR). The main purposes of this study were to identify and to quantify the inherent uncertainties of re-entry analysis tools, and to provide possible risk mitigation measures. For these purposes, three basic risk scenarios were specified: a 1-ton-class satellite without propulsion for uncontrolled re-entry, a 6-ton-class satellite with propulsion and the capability to perform a controlled re-entry, and a 1-ton-class launcher upper stage re-entering uncontrolled. Based on the identified uncertainty parameters, variation analyses were conducted for these scenarios with the two ESA tools for re-entry analysis SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Reentry and Aerothermal Breakup) and SESAM (Spacecraft Entry Survival Analysis Module). This paper describes the major results of the RADR study.

  17. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  18. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Risk Assessment Criteria B Appendix B to Part 236... B to Part 236—Risk Assessment Criteria The safety-critical performance of each product for which risk assessment is required under this part must be assessed in accordance with the following...

  19. Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Methods Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. Results The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women. PMID:24204664

  20. Temporal constraints on predation risk assessment in a changing world.

    PubMed

    Chivers, Douglas P; Ramasamy, Ryan A; McCormick, Mark I; Watson, Sue-Ann; Siebeck, Ulrike E; Ferrari, Maud C O

    2014-12-01

    Habitat degradation takes various forms and likely represents the most significant threat to our global biodiversity. Recently, we have seen considerable attention paid to increasing global CO2 emissions which lead to ocean acidification (OA). Other stressors, such as changing levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), also impact biodiversity but have received much less attention in the recent past. Here we examine fundamental questions about temporal aspects of risk assessment by coral reef damselfish and provide critical insights into how OA and UVR influence this assessment. Chemical cues released during a predator attack provide a rich source of information that other prey animals use to mediate their risk of predation and are the basis of the majority of trait-mediated indirect interactions in aquatic communities. However, we have surprisingly limited information about temporal aspects of risk assessment because we lack knowledge about how long chemical cues persist after they are released into the environment. Here, we showed that under ambient CO2 conditions (~385 μatm), alarm cues of ambon damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis) did not degrade within 30 min in the absence of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), but were degraded within 15 min when the CO2 was increased to ~905 μatm. In experiments that used filters to eliminate UVR, we found minimal degradation of alarm cues within 30 min, whereas under ambient UVR conditions, alarm cues were completely degraded within 15 min. Moreover, in the presence of both UVR and elevated CO2, alarm cues were broken down within 5 min. Our results highlight that alarm cues degrade surprisingly quickly under natural conditions and that anthropogenic changes have the potential to dramatically change rates of cue degradation in the wild. This has considerable implications for risk assessment and consequently the importance of trait-mediated indirect interactions in coral-reef communities. PMID:25237790

  1. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  2. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  3. Risk assessment of urban air pollution.

    PubMed

    Törnqvist, M; Ehrenberg, L

    1992-12-01

    Urban air pollution, originating in western countries mainly from automotive engine exhausts, contains thousands of components, many of which are genotoxic, i.e. are putative cancer initiators. Other pollution components, such as NO2 and certain particles, may have cocarcinogenic/promotive effects, at least at higher exposure levels. Cancer risk assessment of this complex mixture has to combine data from the exposure history, from epidemiological studies as well as from animal carcinogenicity tests, and from in vitro studies of fractions and individual components. Data for metabolism and pharmaco-kinetics have also to be considered. A multiplicative linear model is assumed to be valid for cancer initiation at low levels. Attempts are being made to determine the target dose from ultimate carcinogens (reactive metabolites) via macromolecule adduct levels, and to base the risk assessment on the radiation-dose equivalent to the chemical dose. So far this has been possible only for simple alkenes, which are metabolized to epoxides, and indirectly, via benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), for particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). The lifetime risk of cancer (all sites) from ethene is estimated accordingly to 1.4 x 10(-4) per microgram m-3, and from PAH to 12 x 10(-4) per ng m-3 BaP. For other components indicated to give risk contribution (NOx, volatile PAH, benzene, aldehydes, butadiene) essential data are lacking and only very rough estimates can be given at this time. PMID:1306130

  4. Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

    PubMed Central

    Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

  5. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al. PMID:25226200

  6. Special Education Faculty Needs Assessment Study Implications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, D.D.; Tyler, N.; Montrosse, B.E.; Young, C.; Robb, S.M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the highlights of the Special Education Faculty Needs Assessment Study (SEFNA). Actions taken after the release of The 2001 Faculty Shortage Study demonstrate that supply-and-demand imbalances can be improved. The projected shortage of special education faculty will directly and negatively affect students with disabilities and…

  7. Offshore blowouts, data for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Holand, P.

    1995-12-31

    Blowouts are, besides gas leakages, the major contributor to the total risk for offshore installations. Therefore, the blowout risk is always included in Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) of offshore installations in the Norwegian Sector of the North Sea. SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database has existed since 1984 (until 1990 it was called Marintek`s blowout database). In 1990 the responsibility of the database was transferred to SINTEF Safety and Reliability. Throughout these years the database has been used for assessing blowout risk associated to development and operation of fields offshore Norway. Six oil companies and two consultants are presently sponsoring the database. These companies are using the database when performing risk analyses. During the past three years the database has been subjected to a thorough quality improvement, both with respect to the user interface, and most important, regarding the blowout data included in the database. What is unique with this database, besides the high quality of blowout descriptions, is first that the blowout causes are categorized related to loss of primary and secondary barriers. Secondly that the user interface makes it possible to establish searches to withdraw information regarding any blowout type subjected for specific searches.

  8. Project Fox: Assessing Risks Posed By Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.; Chen, X.; Liu, W.; Manchev, P.; Paté-Cornell, M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to make decisions on how to invest limited research dollars on asteroid surveillance and mitigation options, an analytic understanding of the risks posed by impacts is necessary. Qualitative and quantitative studies have been performed to assess such risks, and some reasonable point estimates have been proposed. However, since consequential asteroid impacts tend to be rare events, point estimates and expected annual death rates do not adequately convey the heavy tail of the distribution, potentially leading to misguided resource allocations. We propose and develop a framework for new risk measures, including a distribution over the number of fatalities from asteroid impacts and the probability of a globally consequential impact. We implement a simulation of asteroid impacts using probabilistic inputs for impactor characteristics, and a Poisson process for asteroid arrivals over the next 100 years. Simulation results indicate that a significant portion of the risk to humans comes from asteroids in the 300-1000 meter diameter range; this is because asteroid impacts in this range can produce global effects, and are more frequent than those from asteroids greater than 1km in diameter. The relative importance of this size regime in overall asteroid impact risk is robust in simulation results, and we find the magnitude of risks is still sensitive to factors that contribute global effects from an asteroid impact. Initial results are provided on the sensitivity of impact risks to various mitigation measures, including 'civil defense' methods. These results underscore the need for next-generation survey missions, and can help provide the basis for setting future space telescope observation requirements.

  9. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, N.; Qiu, Y.; Gan, H.; Niu, C.; Liu, J.; Gan, Y.; Zhou, N.

    2014-09-01

    Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG). The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  10. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  11. A perspective of pesticide residue variability and acute dietary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Walsh, M

    2000-07-01

    The question of the variability of pesticide residues and acute risk assessment has arisen in the context of the work of the European Commission's Scientific Committee for Plants (SCP). A brief outline is presented of European Community legislation on pesticide residues and the authorization of plant protection products. It is stated that although chronic risk assessment is systematically carried out in connection with the fixing of Community MRLs, the same has not applied for acute risk assessment. The reasons for this situation have been the absence of an agreed methodology, acute reference dose (RfD) and adequate dietary and residue data. It is stated that in the opinion of the Scientific Committee for Plants an acute risk assessment should be considered on a routine basis and that steps should be taken to ensure the availability of the necessary data. Possible implications for risk communication and the authorization of plant protection products in the EC are also discussed. PMID:10983589

  12. Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jongman, B.; Koks, E. E.; Husby, T. G.; Ward, P. J.

    2014-05-01

    The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on an accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information provides valuable input to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood-prone areas has been higher than in non-flood-prone areas. We also find that property values in flood-prone areas are lower than those in non-flood-prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood-prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing.

  13. Culture and Early Language Development: Implications for Assessment and Intervention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parada, Patricia M.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative study--"Culture and Early Language Development: Implications for Assessment and Intervention"--was to explore and describe the perceptions and beliefs of Salvadoran mothers of low socioeconomic status regarding the language development of their young children in order to identify cultural variations in…

  14. Induced seismicity and implications for CO2 storage risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerstenberger, M. C.; Nicol, A.; Bromley, C.; Carne, R.; Chardot, L.; Ellis, S. M.; Jenkins, C.; Siggins, T.; Viskovic, P.

    2012-12-01

    We provide an overview of a recently completed report for the IEA GHG that represents a comprehensive review of current research and observations in induced seismicity, its risk to successful completion of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects and potential mitigation measures. We focus on two topics: a meta-analysis of related data from multiple injection projects around the globe and the implications of these data for CCS induced seismicity risk management. Published data have been compiled from injection and extraction projects around the globe to examine statistical relationships between possible controlling factors and induced seismicity. Quality control of such observational earthquake data sets is crucial to ensure robust results and issues with bias and completeness of the data set will be discussed. Analyses of the available data support previous suggestions that the locations, numbers and magnitudes of induced earthquakes are dependent on a range of factors, including the injection rate, total injected fluid volume, the reservoir permeability and the proximity of pre-existing faults. Increases in the injection rates and total volume of fluid injected, for example, typically raise reservoir pressures and increase the likelihood of elevated seismicity rates and maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes. The risks associated with induced seismicity at CCS sites can be reduced and mitigated using a systematic and structured risk management programme. While precise forecasts of the expected induced seismicity may never be possible, a thorough risk management procedure should include some level of knowledge of the possible behaviour of induced seismicity. Risk management requires estimates of the expected magnitude, number, location and timing of potential induced earthquakes. Such forecasts should utilise site specific observations together with physical and statistical models that are optimised for the site. Statistical models presently show the most

  15. Integrated Assessment Modeling for Carbon Storage Risk and Uncertainty Quantification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bromhal, G. S.; Dilmore, R.; Pawar, R.; Stauffer, P. H.; Gastelum, J.; Oldenburg, C. M.; Zhang, Y.; Chu, S.

    2013-12-01

    The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed tools to perform quantitative risk assessment at site-specific locations for long-term carbon storage. The approach that is being used is to divide the storage and containment system into components (e.g., reservoirs, seals, wells, groundwater aquifers), to develop detailed models for each component, to generate reduced order models (ROMs) based on the detailed models, and to reconnect the reduced order models within an integrated assessment model (IAM). CO2-PENS, developed at Los Alamos National Lab, is being used as the IAM for the simulations in this study. The benefit of this approach is that simulations of the complete system can be generated on a relatively rapid time scale so that Monte Carlo simulation can be performed. In this study, hundreds of thousands of runs of the IAMs have been generated to estimate likelihoods of the quantity of CO2 released to the atmosphere, size of aquifer impacted by pH, size of aquifer impacted by TDS, and size of aquifer with different metals concentrations. Correlations of the output variables with different reservoir, seal, wellbore, and aquifer parameters have been generated. Importance measures have been identified, and inputs have been ranked in the order of their impact on the output quantities. Presentation will describe the approach used, representative results, and implications for how the Monte Carlo analysis is implemented on uncertainty quantification.

  16. Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach (CARMINA).

    PubMed

    Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Tardivo, Stefano; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Moretti, Francesca; Poletti, Piera; Fiore, Alberto; Monturano, Massimo; Mura, Ida; Privitera, Gaetano; Brusaferro, Silvio

    2016-08-01

    Purpose - The European Union recommendations for patient safety calls for shared clinical risk management (CRM) safety standards able to guide organizations in CRM implementation. The purpose of this paper is to develop a self-evaluation tool to measure healthcare organization performance on CRM and guide improvements over time. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-step approach was implemented including: a systematic literature review; consensus meetings with an expert panel from eight Italian leader organizations to get to an agreement on the first version; field testing to test instrument feasibility and flexibility; Delphi strategy with a second expert panel for content validation and balanced scoring system development. Findings - The self-assessment tool - Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach includes seven areas (governance, communication, knowledge and skills, safe environment, care processes, adverse event management, learning from experience) and 52 standards. Each standard is evaluated according to four performance levels: minimum; monitoring; outcomes; and improvement actions, which resulted in a feasible, flexible and valid instrument to be used throughout different organizations. Practical implications - This tool allows practitioners to assess their CRM activities compared to minimum levels, monitor performance, benchmarking with other institutions and spreading results to different stakeholders. Originality/value - The multi-step approach allowed us to identify core minimum CRM levels in a field where no consensus has been reached. Most standards may be easily adopted in other countries. PMID:27477931

  17. Quantitative risk assessment of durable glass fibers.

    PubMed

    Fayerweather, William E; Eastes, Walter; Cereghini, Francesco; Hadley, John G

    2002-06-01

    This article presents a quantitative risk assessment for the theoretical lifetime cancer risk from the manufacture and use of relatively durable synthetic glass fibers. More specifically, we estimate levels of exposure to respirable fibers or fiberlike structures of E-glass and C-glass that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, pose a theoretical lifetime cancer risk of not more than 1 per 100,000. For comparability with other risk assessments we define these levels as nonsignificant exposures. Nonsignificant exposure levels are estimated from (a) the Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E-glass microfibers, and (b) the Research Consulting Company (RCC) chronic inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers (RCF). Best estimates of nonsignificant E-glass exposure exceed 0.05-0.13 fibers (or shards) per cubic centimeter (cm3) when calculated from the multistage nonthreshold model. Best estimates of nonsignificant C-glass exposure exceed 0.27-0.6 fibers/cm3. Estimates of nonsignificant exposure increase markedly for E- and C-glass when non-linear models are applied and rapidly exceed 1 fiber/cm3. Controlling durable fiber exposures to an 8-h time-weighted average of 0.05 fibers/cm3 will assure that the additional theoretical lifetime risk from working lifetime exposures to these durable fibers or shards is kept below the 1 per 100,000 level. Measured airborne exposures to respirable, durable glass fibers (or shards) in glass fiber manufacturing and fabrication operations were compared with the nonsignificant exposure estimates described. Sampling results for B-sized respirable E-glass fibers at facilities that manufacture or fabricate small-diameter continuous-filament products, from those that manufacture respirable E-glass shards from PERG (process to efficiently recycle glass), from milled fiber operations, and from respirable C-glass shards from Flakeglass operations indicate very low median exposures of 0

  18. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we provide context for this report

  19. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  20. MECHANISM OF DIOXIN TOXICITY: RELATIONSHIP TO RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk characterization involves hazard identification, determination of dose/response relationships, and exposure assessment. mprovement of the risk assessment process requires inclusion of the best available science. ecent findings in the area of dioxin toxicity have led to a maj...

  1. Relationship of risk assessment to placement characteristics in a statewide child welfare population

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Cindy Y.; Bory, Christopher T.; Caron, Colleen; Tebes, Jacob Kraemer; Connell, Christian M.

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessments allow child and youth services to identify children who are at risk for maltreatment (e.g., abuse, neglect) and help determine the restrictiveness of placements or need for services among youth entering a child welfare system. Despite the use of instruments by many agencies within the U.S. to determine the appropriate placements for youth, research has shown that placement decisions are often influenced by factors such as gender, age, and severity of social–emotional and behavior problems. This study examined ratings of risk across multiple domains using a structured assessment tool used by caseworkers in the Rhode Island child welfare system. The relationship between ratings of risk and placement restrictiveness was also examined. Risk levels varied across placement settings. Multivariate analyses revealed that lower caseworker ratings of parent risk and higher ratings of youth risk were associated with more restrictive placements for youth. Implications for the child welfare system are discussed. PMID:25838617

  2. Blast TBI Models, Neuropathology, and Implications for Seizure Risk

    PubMed Central

    Kovacs, S. Krisztian; Leonessa, Fabio; Ling, Geoffrey S. F.

    2014-01-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) due to explosive blast exposure is a leading combat casualty. It is also implicated as a key contributor to war related mental health diseases. A clinically important consequence of all types of TBI is a high risk for development of seizures and epilepsy. Seizures have been reported in patients who have suffered blast injuries in the Global War on Terror but the exact prevalence is unknown. The occurrence of seizures supports the contention that explosive blast leads to both cellular and structural brain pathology. Unfortunately, the exact mechanism by which explosions cause brain injury is unclear, which complicates development of meaningful therapies and mitigation strategies. To help improve understanding, detailed neuropathological analysis is needed. For this, histopathological techniques are extremely valuable and indispensable. In the following we will review the pathological results, including those from immunohistochemical and special staining approaches, from recent preclinical explosive blast studies. PMID:24782820

  3. Blast TBI Models, Neuropathology, and Implications for Seizure Risk.

    PubMed

    Kovacs, S Krisztian; Leonessa, Fabio; Ling, Geoffrey S F

    2014-01-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) due to explosive blast exposure is a leading combat casualty. It is also implicated as a key contributor to war related mental health diseases. A clinically important consequence of all types of TBI is a high risk for development of seizures and epilepsy. Seizures have been reported in patients who have suffered blast injuries in the Global War on Terror but the exact prevalence is unknown. The occurrence of seizures supports the contention that explosive blast leads to both cellular and structural brain pathology. Unfortunately, the exact mechanism by which explosions cause brain injury is unclear, which complicates development of meaningful therapies and mitigation strategies. To help improve understanding, detailed neuropathological analysis is needed. For this, histopathological techniques are extremely valuable and indispensable. In the following we will review the pathological results, including those from immunohistochemical and special staining approaches, from recent preclinical explosive blast studies. PMID:24782820

  4. Assessment of mercury health risks to adults from coal combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Fthenakis, V.M.; DePhillips, M.P.; Viren, J.; Saroff, L.

    1994-05-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing, for the U.S. Congress, a report evaluating the need to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from electric utilities. This study, to be completed in 1995, will have important health and economic implications. In support of these efforts, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to evaluate methylmercury (MeHg) hazards independently. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical 1000 MW{sub e} coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The approach draws on the extant knowledge in each of the important steps in the calculation chain from emissions to health effects. Estimated results at key points in the chain were compared with actual measurements to help validate the modeled estimates. Two cases were considered: the baseline case (no local impacts), and the impact case (maximum local power-plant impact). The BNL study showed that the effects of emissions of a single power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized area near the power plant. Many implicit and explicit sources of uncertainty exist in this analysis. Those that appear to be most in need of improvement include data on doses and responses for potentially sensitive subpopulations (e.g., fetal exposures). Rather than considering hypothetical situations, it would also be preferable to assess the risks associated with actual coal-fired power plants and the nearby sensitive water bodies and susceptible subpopulations. Finally, annual total Hg emissions from coal burning and from other anthropogenic sources are still uncertain; this makes it difficult to estimate the effects of U.S. coal burning on global Hg concentration levels, especially over the long term.

  5. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  6. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  7. Workshop overview: Arsenic research and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Sams, Reeder Wolf, Douglas C.; Ramasamy, Santhini; Ohanian, Ed; Chen, Jonathan; Lowit, Anna

    2007-08-01

    The chronic exposure of humans through consumption of high levels of inorganic arsenic (iAs)-contaminated drinking water is associated with skin lesions, peripheral vascular disease, hypertension, and cancers. Additionally, humans are exposed to organic arsenicals when used as pesticides and herbicides (e.g., monomethylarsonic acid, dimethylarsinic acid (DMA{sup V}) also known as cacodylic acid). Extensive research has been conducted to characterize the adverse health effects that result from exposure to iAs and its metabolites to describe the biological pathway(s) that lead to adverse health effects. To further this effort, on May 31, 2006, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) sponsored a meeting entitled 'Workshop on Arsenic Research and Risk Assessment'. The invited participants from government agencies, academia, independent research organizations and consultants were asked to present their current research. The overall focus of these research efforts has been to determine the potential human health risks due to environmental exposures to arsenicals. Pursuant in these efforts is the elucidation of a mode of action for arsenicals. This paper provides a brief overview of the workshop goals, regulatory context for arsenical research, mode of action (MOA) analysis in human health risk assessment, and the application of MOA analysis for iAs and DMA{sup V}. Subsequent papers within this issue will present the research discussed at the workshop, ensuing discussions, and conclusions of the workshop.

  8. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:19048472

  9. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  10. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  11. Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

  12. Dissimilarity of contemporary and historical gene flow in a wild carrot (Daucus carota) metapopulation under contrasting levels of human disturbance: implications for risk assessment and management of transgene introgression

    PubMed Central

    Rong, Jun; Xu, Shuhua; Meirmans, Patrick G.; Vrieling, Klaas

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims Transgene introgression from crops into wild relatives may increase the resistance of wild plants to herbicides, insects, etc. The chance of transgene introgression depends not only on the rate of hybridization and the establishment of hybrids in local wild populations, but also on the metapopulation dynamics of the wild relative. The aim of the study was to estimate gene flow in a metapopulation for assessing and managing the risks of transgene introgression. Methods Wild carrots (Daucus carota) were sampled from 12 patches in a metapopulation. Eleven microsatellites were used to genotype wild carrots. Genetic structure was estimated based on the FST statistic. Contemporary (over the last several generations) and historical (over many generations) gene flow was estimated with assignment and coalescent methods, respectively. Key Results The genetic structure in the wild carrot metapopulation was moderate (FST = 0·082) and most of the genetic variation resided within patches. A pattern of isolation by distance was detected, suggesting that most of the gene flow occurred between neighbouring patches (≤1 km). The mean contemporary gene flow was 5 times higher than the historical estimate, and the correlation between them was very low. Moreover, the contemporary gene flow in roadsides was twice that in a nature reserve, and the correlation between contemporary and historical estimates was much higher in the nature reserve. Mowing of roadsides may contribute to the increase in contemporary gene flow. Simulations demonstrated that the higher contemporary gene flow could accelerate the process of transgene introgression in the metapopulation. Conclusions Human disturbance such as mowing may alter gene flow patterns in wild populations, affecting the metapopulation dynamics of wild plants and the processes of transgene introgression in the metapopulation. The risk assessment and management of transgene introgression and the control of weeds need to

  13. Gender, Assessment and Students' Literacy Learning: Implications for Formative Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Patricia; Ivinson, Gabrielle

    2005-01-01

    Formative assessment is intended to develop students' capacity to learn and increase the effectiveness of teaching. However, the extent to which formative assessment can meet these aims depends on the relationship between its conception and current conceptions of learning. In recent years concern about sex group differences in achievement has led…

  14. Reporting guidance for violence risk assessment predictive validity studies: the RAGEE Statement.

    PubMed

    Singh, Jay P; Yang, Suzanne; Mulvey, Edward P

    2015-02-01

    Available reporting guidelines for prognostic and diagnostic accuracy studies apply primarily to biological assessment and outcomes, overlooking behavioral issues with major public health and safety implications such as violence. The present study aimed to develop the first set of reporting guidance for predictive validity studies of violence risk assessments: the Risk Assessment Guidelines for the Evaluation of Efficacy (RAGEE) Statement. A systematic search of 8 electronic databases prior to September 2012 identified 279 reporting guidelines for prognostic and diagnostic accuracy studies. Unique items were extracted and modified to make them relevant to risk assessment. A 4-wave Delphi process involving a multidisciplinary team of 37 international experts resulted in a 50-item reporting checklist. The panelists endorsed the RAGEE Statement checklist as being highly satisfactory and as indicating study features that should be reported routinely in manuscripts. Use of these proposed standards has the potential to improve the quality of the risk assessment literature. PMID:25133921

  15. Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, R. Karl

    2005-01-01

    Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

  16. Assessing suicidal risk with antiepileptic drugs

    PubMed Central

    Mula, Marco; Bell, Gail S; Sander, Josemir W

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the US Food and Drug Administration issued an alert about an increased risk for suicidality during treatment with antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) for different indications, including epilepsy. We discuss the issue of suicide in epilepsy with special attention to AEDs and the assessment of suicide in people with epilepsy. It has been suggested that early medical treatment with AEDs might potentially reduce suicide risk of people with epilepsy, but it is of great importance that the choice of drug is tailored to the mental state of the patient. The issue of suicidality in epilepsy is likely to represent an example of how the underdiagnosis of psychiatric symptoms, the lack of input from professionals (eg, psychologists, social workers, and psychiatrists), and the delay in an optimized AED therapy may worsen the prognosis of the condition with the occurrence of severe complications such as suicide. PMID:20957120

  17. Ecological risk assessment of contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Jensen, John; Pedersen, Marianne Bruus

    2006-01-01

    This review has described three cases of ecological risk assessment. The cases include two heavy metals (Cu and Zn) and an anthropogenic organic chemical (DDT). It concludes that there are at least two major constraints hampering the use of laboratory tests to predict effects under natural field conditions. One key issue is bioavailability, and another is suboptimal conditions or multiple stresses in the field such as climatic stress (drought, frost), predators, competition, or food shortage. On the basis of the presented case studies, it was possible to answer three essential questions often raised in connection to ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites. 1. To what extend does soil screening level (SSL) estimate the risk? The SSL are generally derived at levels corresponding to the lowest observed effect levels in laboratory studies, which often is close to the background levels found in many soils. In the cases of zinc and especially DDT, the SSL seemed quite conservative, whereas for copper they resemble the level at which changes in the community structure of soil microarthropods and the plant community have been observed at contaminated sites. The SSL correspond as a whole relatively well with concentrations where no effects or only minor effects were observed in controlled field studies. However, large variation in field surveys can often make it difficult to conclude to what extent the SSL corresponded to no-effect levels in the field. 2. Do bioassays represent a more realistic risk estimate? Here, there is no firm conclusion. The zinc study in UK showed a better relationship between the outcome of ex situ bioassays and field observations than the SSL. The latter overestimated the risk compared to field observations. However, this would be species dependent, as the sensitivity to metals may vary considerably between recognized test species, even within the same group of organisms, such as Folsomia candida and Folsomia fimetaria or Eisenia fetida

  18. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects. PMID:22021317

  19. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W. )

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  20. Suicide risk assessment and risk formulation part II: Suicide risk formulation and the determination of levels of risk.

    PubMed

    Berman, Alan L; Silverman, Morton M

    2014-08-01

    The suicide risk formulation (SRF) is dependent on the data gathered in the suicide risk assessment. The SRF assigns a level of suicide risk that is intended to inform decisions about triage, treatment, management, and preventive interventions. However, there is little published about how to stratify and formulate suicide risk, what are the criteria for assigning levels of risk, and how triage and treatment decisions are correlated with levels of risk. The salient clinical issues that define an SRF are reviewed and modeling is suggested for an SRF that might guide clinical researchers toward the refinement of an SRF process. PMID:24286521

  1. Risk assessment of acrylamide in foods.

    PubMed

    Dybing, E; Sanner, T

    2003-09-01

    Daily mean intakes of acrylamide present in foods and coffee in a limited Norwegian exposure assessment study have been estimated to be 0.49 and 0.46 microg per kg body weight in males and females, respectively. Testicular mesotheliomas and mammary gland adenomas have consistently been found in 2-year drinking water rat cancer studies with acrylamide. Acrylamide also shows initiating activity in mouse skin after systemic administration. Since acrylamide is converted to the mutagenic metabolite glycidamide and forms adducts to hemoglobin in rodents and humans, the tumorigenic endpoints in rats were assumed to be an expression of acrylamide genotoxicity. Using the default linear extrapolation methods LED10 and T25, the lifetime cancer hazard after lifelong exposure to 1 microg acrylamide per kg body weight per day, scaled to humans, was calculated to be, on average, 1.3 x 10-3. Using this hazard level and correlating it with the exposure estimates, a lifetime cancer risk related to daily intake of acrylamide in foods for 70 years in males was calculated to be 0.6 x 10-3, implying that 6 out of 10,000 individuals may develop cancer due to acrylamide. For females, the risk values were slightly lower. It must be emphasized that this risk assessment is conservative. A number of processes may result in nonlinearity of the dose-response relationships for acrylamide carcinogenicity in the low-dose region, including detoxication reactions, cell cycle arrest, DNA repair, apoptosis, and immune surveillance. Thus, the true risk levels related to acrylamide intake may be considerably lower. PMID:12805639

  2. 75 FR 82387 - Next Generation Risk Assessment Public Dialogue Conference

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-30

    ... AGENCY Next Generation Risk Assessment Public Dialogue Conference AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency... Generation of Risk Assessment'' (NexGen) program, EPA is announcing a 2-day public dialogue conference to... Information About the Conference The landscape of risk assessment is changing rapidly with new advances...

  3. 76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-27

    ... time to prepare and submit comments on the Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our... assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are also available on the APHIS Web site at http://www.aphis.usda... petition, draft environmental assessment, or plant pest risk assessment, contact Ms. Cindy Eck at (301)...

  4. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  5. Whither risk assessment? An overall perspective.

    PubMed

    Gori, G B

    1993-04-01

    Major regulatory initiatives in health and safety are increasingly viewed as too costly, not objectively justified, and thus failing in their mandate to ensure a fair social distribution of rights and burdens. Official but arbitrary assumptions in cancer risk assessment and open-ended statutory language encourage regulatory agencies to overregulate. Also, institutional self-serving motivations of regulatory agencies add incentives to expand regulation. Mitigation of the current regulatory crisis may come from curbing these selfish incentives, and from requiring that regulation be justified on the basis of strict scientific standards of evidence, rather than on arbitrary assumptions and conjectures. PMID:8484030

  6. Assessing risk of solid waste compost

    SciTech Connect

    Dyer, J.M.; Razvi, A.S. )

    1987-03-01

    This paper addresses the movement of metals in soils and their accumulation in plants. Research with sewage sludge compost indicates that these risks can be minimized with proper handling and management. The objectives of this study were: (I) to evaluate potential groundwater contamination due to plant nutrients and heavy metals in the compost; and (II) to assess the accumulation of metals in plants grown on compost-amended soil. Data are presented for analyses of nickel, lead, cadmium, copper and zinc in snap beans.

  7. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants. PMID:24046097

  8. Assessment of cardiovascular risks and overall risks for noncardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Chung, O Y; Beattie, C; Friesinger, G C

    1999-02-01

    Appropriate care of the elderly patient requires a concerted multi-disciplinary approach before, during, and after surgery to optimize functional outcomes, with the principal focus placed on improving quality of life and strategies for risk reduction. Perioperative physicians must be able to assess the biologic, not the chronologic, age of geriatric patients and their capacity for independent function. Physicians need to understand alterations in the physiology of elderly patients attributable to the normal aging process as well as the prevalence of concurrent pathologic conditions that necessitate special precautions. Maintaining autonomy and function as a result of an acute surgical intervention may be the most important outcome to the elderly patient. Most of the data available and guidelines promulgated do not specifically address the elderly population. It is important to collect data prospectively and use sophisticated methods for analyses to develop better management algorithms for these (often complicated) clinical issues in the elderly. PMID:10093774

  9. NEUROBEHAVIORAL TESTING IN HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

    PubMed Central

    Rohlman, Diane S.; Lucchini, Roberto; Anger, W. Kent; Bellinger, David C.; van Thriel, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    Neurobehavioral tests are being increasingly used in human risk assessment and there is a strong need for guidance. The field of neurobehavioral toxicology has evolved from research which initially focused on using traditional neuropsychological tests to identify “abnormal cases” to include methods used to detect sub-clinical deficits, to further incorporate the use of neurosensory assessment, and to expand testing from occupational populations to vulnerable populations including older adults and children. Even as exposures in the workplace are reduced, they have been increasing in the environment and research on exposure has now expanded to cross the entire lifetime. These neurobehavioral methods are applied in research and the findings used for regulatory purposes to develop preventative action for exposed populations. This paper reflects a summary of the talks presented at the symposium presented at the 11th meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association. PMID:18539229

  10. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, Glenn W. . E-mail: suter.glenn@epa.gov; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-09-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species.

  11. Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, S. F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.; Solidum, R. U.; Wilson, T. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper presents structured and cost-effective methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of at-risk communities to the range of volcanic hazards, developed as part of the MIA-VITA project (2009-2012). An initial assessment of building and infrastructure vulnerability has been carried out for a set of broadly defined building types and infrastructure categories, with the likelihood of damage considered separately for projectile impact, ash fall loading, pyroclastic density current dynamic pressure and earthquake ground shaking intensities. In refining these estimates for two case study areas: Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines and Fogo volcano in Cape Verde, we have developed guidelines and methodologies for carrying out physical vulnerability assessments in the field. These include identifying primary building characteristics, such as construction material and method, as well as subsidiary characteristics, for example the size and prevalence of openings, that may be important in assessing eruption impacts. At-risk buildings around Kanlaon were found to be dominated by timber frame buildings that exhibit a high vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents, but a low vulnerability to failure from seismic shaking. Around Fogo, the predominance of unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slab roofs suggests a high vulnerability to volcanic earthquake but a low vulnerability to ash fall loading. Given the importance of agriculture for local livelihoods around Kanlaon and Fogo, we discuss the potential impact of infrastructure vulnerability for local agricultural economies, with implications for volcanic areas worldwide. These methodologies and tools go some way towards offering a standardised approach to carrying out future vulnerability assessments for populated volcanic areas.

  12. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  13. High-energy gamma rays in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: Implications for risk and W{sub R}

    SciTech Connect

    Straume, T.

    1995-12-01

    Based on the DS86 dosimetry system, nearly all of the dose to survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was due to unusually high-energy gamma rays, predominantly in the 2- to 5-MeV range. These high energies resulted in part from neutron capture gamma rays as the bomb neutrons penetrated large distances of air. Because of the inverse relationship between energy and biological effectiveness, these high-energy gamma rays are expected to be substantially less effective in producing biological damage than the radiations commonly used in radiobiology and risk assessment. This observation has implications for radiation protection and risk assessment.

  14. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  15. The new tapestry of risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Bernard; Cory-Slechta, Deborah; Gilbert, Steven G.; Mergler, Donna; Miller, Elise; Miller, Claudia; Newland, M. Christopher; Rice, Deborah; Schettler, Ted

    2008-01-01

    Neurotoxicology is entering a new phase in how it views and practices risk assessment. Perhaps more than any of the other disciplines that comprise the science of toxicology, it has been compelled to consider a daunting array of factors other than those directly coupled to chemical and dose, and the age and sex of the subject population. In epidemiological investigations, researchers are increasingly cognizant of the problems introduced by allegedly controlling for variables classified as confounders or covariates. In essence, they reason, the consequence is blurring or even concealing interactions of exposure with modifiers such as the individual’s social ecology. Other researchers question the traditional practice of relying on values such as NOAELs when they are abstracted from a biological entity that in reality represents a multiplicity of intertwined systems. Although neurotoxicologists have come to recognize the complexities of assessing risk in all its dimensions, they still face the challenge of communicating this view to the health professions at large. PMID:18501430

  16. Cyanide analyses for risk and treatability assessments

    SciTech Connect

    MacFarlane, I.D.; Elseroad, H.J.; Pergrin, D.E.; Logan, C.M.

    1994-12-31

    Cyanide, an EPA priority pollutant and target analyte, is typically measured as total. However, cyanide complexation, information which is not acquired through total cyanide analysis, is often a driver of cyanide toxicity and treatability. A case study of a former manufacture gas plant (MGP) is used to demonstrate the usability of various cyanide analytical methods for risk and treatability assessments. Several analytical methods, including cyanide amenable to chlorination and weak acid dissociable cyanide help test the degree of cyanide complexation. Generally, free or uncomplexed cyanide is more biologically available, toxic, and reactive than complexed cyanide. Extensive site testing has shown that free and weakly dissociable cyanide composes only a small fraction of total cyanide as would be expected from the literature, and that risk assessment will be more realistic considering cyanide form. Likewise, aqueous treatment for cyanide can be properly tested if cyanide form is accounted for. Weak acid dissociable cyanide analyses proved to be the most reliable (and potentially acceptable) cyanide method, as well as represent the most toxic and reactive cyanide forms.

  17. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersion 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.

  18. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  19. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment for Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betul Demircioglu, Mine; Sesetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-05-01

    Using a GIS-environment to present the results, seismic risk analysis is considered as a helpful tool to support the decision making for planning and prioritizing seismic retrofit intervention programs at large scale. The main ingredients of seismic risk analysis consist of seismic hazard, regional inventory of buildings and vulnerability analysis. In this study, the assessment of the national earthquake hazard based on the NGA ground motion prediction models and the comparisons of the results with the previous models have been considered, respectively. An evaluation of seismic risk based on the probabilistic intensity ground motion prediction for Turkey has been investigated. According to the Macroseismic approach of Giovinazzi and Lagomarsino (2005), two alternative vulnerability models have been used to estimate building damage. The vulnerability and ductility indices for Turkey have been taken from the study of Giovinazzi (2005). These two vulnerability models have been compared with the observed earthquake damage database. A good agreement between curves has been clearly observed. In additional to the building damage, casualty estimations based on three different methods for each return period and for each vulnerability model have been presented to evaluate the earthquake loss. Using three different models of building replacement costs, the average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss ratio (PMLR) due to regional earthquake hazard have been provided to form a basis for the improvement of the parametric insurance model and the determination of premium rates for the compulsory earthquake insurance in Turkey.

  20. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of disassembly procedures

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-10-01

    Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) is an analytic methodology for identifying the combination of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents. Accidents are defined as those events causing loss or injury to people, property, or the environment. PRA also provides a method for estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and the consequences of each accident. The Los Alamos effort for this study is summarized as follows: The focus of the Los Alamos study was on evaluating the risks specifically associated with disassembling a Los Alamos-designed device. The PRA for the disassembly operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of a risk consequence goal for DOE operations. Often called a Level 3 PRA (or PSA), the methods are general and can with a little modification be applied to other procedures or processes.

  1. Incorporating genomics into breast and prostate cancer screening: assessing the implications

    PubMed Central

    Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Pashayan, Nora; Hall, Alison; Lyratzopoulos, Georgios; Hallowell, Nina; Hall, Per; Pharoah, Paul; Burton, Hilary

    2013-01-01

    Individual risk prediction and stratification based on polygenic profiling may be useful in disease prevention. Risk-stratified population screening based on multiple factors including a polygenic risk profile has the potential to be more efficient than age-stratified screening. In this article, we summarize the implications of personalized screening for breast and prostate cancers. We report the opinions of multidisciplinary international experts who have explored the scientific, ethical, and logistical aspects of stratified screening. We have identified (i) the need to recognize the benefits and harms of personalized screening as compared with existing screening methods, (ii) that the use of genetic data highlights complex ethical issues including discrimination against high-risk individuals by insurers and employers and patient autonomy in relation to genetic testing of minors, (iii) the need for transparency and clear communication about risk scores, about harms and benefits, and about reasons for inclusion and exclusion from the risk-based screening process, and (iv) the need to develop new professional competences and to assess cost-effectiveness and acceptability of stratified screening programs before implementation. We conclude that health professionals and stakeholders need to consider the implications of incorporating genetic information in intervention strategies for health-care planning in the future. Genet Med 2013:15(6):423–432 PMID:23412607

  2. Incorporating genomics into breast and prostate cancer screening: assessing the implications.

    PubMed

    Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Pashayan, Nora; Hall, Alison; Lyratzopoulos, Georgios; Hallowell, Nina; Hall, Per; Pharoah, Paul; Burton, Hilary

    2013-06-01

    Individual risk prediction and stratification based on polygenic profiling may be useful in disease prevention. Risk-stratified population screening based on multiple factors including a polygenic risk profile has the potential to be more efficient than age-stratified screening. In this article, we summarize the implications of personalized screening for breast and prostate cancers. We report the opinions of multidisciplinary international experts who have explored the scientific, ethical, and logistical aspects of stratified screening. We have identified (i) the need to recognize the benefits and harms of personalized screening as compared with existing screening methods, (ii) that the use of genetic data highlights complex ethical issues including discrimination against high-risk individuals by insurers and employers and patient autonomy in relation to genetic testing of minors, (iii) the need for transparency and clear communication about risk scores, about harms and benefits, and about reasons for inclusion and exclusion from the risk-based screening process, and (iv) the need to develop new professional competences and to assess cost-effectiveness and acceptability of stratified screening programs before implementation. We conclude that health professionals and stakeholders need to consider the implications of incorporating genetic information in intervention strategies for health-care planning in the future. PMID:23412607

  3. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  4. Incorporating change information into sexual offender risk assessments using the violence risk scale-sexual offender version.

    PubMed

    Olver, Mark E; Christofferson, Sarah M Beggs; Grace, Randolph C; Wong, Stephen C P

    2014-10-01

    We examined the use of risk-change information in sexual offender risk assessments featuring the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO), a sex offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The study featured a combined international sample of 539 sex offenders followed up an average of 15.5 years post-release. Pre- and posttreatment VRS-SO ratings were amalgamated from two treated samples of sex offenders from Canada and New Zealand. Analyses focused on examinations and applications of change data and its relationship to sexual and violent recidivism. VRS-SO change scores were significantly associated with decreases in these outcome criteria with, and without, controlling for indicators of pretreatment risk (e.g., Static-99R score) and individual differences in follow-up time. Applications of logistic regression using fixed 5-year follow-ups generated estimated rates of sexual and violent recidivism at different VRS-SO score thresholds. The use of logistic regression demonstrated a clinically useful and systematic means of combining risk and change information into posttreatment risk appraisals. Implications for the use of change information in the assessment and management of sexual offender risk are discussed. PMID:24088814

  5. New patient assessment in old age psychiatry: the importance of risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Hemsley, Svetlana; McKnight, Rebecca; Anwar, Aneeba; Jones, Sarah; Martos, Lola

    2015-01-01

    Aims and method In recent years, the role of non-medical community mental health team (CMHT) clinicians has widened to include new patient assessments. It is unclear whether all professionals have the skills and confidence to undertake these to a high quality. This project investigated which professionals are doing new assessments, evaluated their quality and explored the assessors' unmet training needs. The study was based on the data extracted from electronic notes and a complete audit cycle in South Oxfordshire Older Adults CMHT; this was a cross-sectional study across Oxfordshire older adults services. Results Most new assessments (72.4%) were done by non-medical clinicians; the majority were missing important information, especially relating to medications and risk assessment. Only 75% of assessors felt at least ‘partially confident’ to do assessments and found them stressful, with 86% keen to undertake further training. Clinical implications Simple measures such as an assessment form, a programme of training seminars and adequate supervision, delivered to all CMHT clinicians, can ensure high-quality assessment in diverse clinical environments. PMID:26755966

  6. Risk Assessment Tool for Estimating Your 10-Year Risk of Having a Heart Attack

    MedlinePlus

    ... Cardiovascular Risk: Systematic Evidence Review from the Risk Assessment Work Group The Evidence Report Full Report Accessible ... MB) Printer-friendly version (2 MB) Study Quality Assessment Tools Clinical Practice Guideline: Developed Under NHLBI Partnership ...

  7. Does risk assessment make a difference? Results of implementing the SAVRY in juvenile probation.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Gina M; Guy, Laura S; Gershenson, Bernice G; McCabe, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    An effective approach to reducing recidivism is, first, to identify a youth's risk of reoffending and then to match the intensity of interventions to that risk level. This pre-post quasi-experimental, prospective study compared 247 (pre) with 217 (post) adjudicated youths to examine the implementation of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and its effects on case management practices in Louisiana's Caddo parish probation office. The results indicated that placement rates dropped by 50%, use of maximum levels of supervision dropped by almost 30%, and use of community services decreased except for high-risk youths, but only after the SAVRY was properly implemented. This shift towards more appropriate allocation of resources that are matched to risk level occurred without a significant increase in reoffending. The implications for implementation and for use of risk/needs assessment in juvenile probation are discussed. PMID:22745028

  8. Assessing the temporal variability in extreme storm-tide time series for coastal flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, N.; Lewis, M.; Wadey, M. P.; Haigh, I. D.

    2014-08-01

    The probability of extreme storm-tide events has been extensively studied; however, the variability within the duration of such events and implications to flood risk is less well understood. This research quantifies such variability during extreme storm-tide events (the combined elevation of the tide, surge, and their interactions) at 44 national tide gauges around the UK. Extreme storm-tide events were sampled from water level measurements taken every 15 min between 1993 and 2012. At each site, the variability in elevation at each time step, relative to a given event peak, was quantified. The magnitude of this time series variability was influenced both by gauge location (and hence the tidal and nontidal residual characteristics) and the time relative to high water. The potential influence of this variability on coastal inundation was assessed across all UK gauge sites, followed by a detailed case study of Portsmouth. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Portsmouth region was used to demonstrate that given a current 1 in 200 year storm-tide event, the predicted number of buildings inundated differed by more than 30% when contrasting simulations forced with the upper and lower bounds of the observed time series variability. The results indicate that variability in the time series of the storm-tide event can have considerable influence upon overflow volumes, hence with implications for coastal flood risk assessments. Therefore, further evaluating and representing this uncertainty in future flood risk assessments is vital, while the envelopes of variability defined in this research provides a valuable tool for coastal flood modelers.

  9. CONFOUNDERS IN INTERPRETING PATHOLOGY FOR SAFETY AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The contribution of pathology assessment to toxicity assessment is invaluable but often not clearly understood. Pathology endpoints are the central response around which human health risk assessment is frequently determined; therefore, it is important that the general toxicology ...

  10. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  11. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  12. Ecological risk assessments for watersheds: Lessons learned from case studies

    SciTech Connect

    Marcy, S.K.M.

    1994-12-31

    The USEPA Office of Water and Risk Assessment Forum are co-sponsoring the development of watershed level ecological risk assessments in Big Darby Creek, OH, Clinch River, VA, Middle Platte River Wetlands, NE, Snake River, ID, and Waquoit Bay Estuary, MA. The case studies are testing the Agency`s Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment at a watershed scale for multiple stressors. During case study development much has been learned about how to apply and modify the principles in the Framework to landscape scale risk assessments. Insights include how to select appropriate assessment endpoints to drive the risk assessment, how to effectively increase involvement by risk management teams, and provide decision opportunities for managers throughout development. The case studies demonstrate diverse ways to conduct watershed risk assessments, and illustrate the importance of multiple risk hypotheses in conceptual models addressing the combined and relative risk of chemical, physical and biological stressors. Issues the case studies highlight include the need for a process to determine when watershed risk assessments are appropriate and at what level of complexity they should be performed, how to increase the use of the ecological risk assessments in management decision-making and how to determine the best risk reduction strategy. An update on the watershed case studies will be provided and the insights and issues stated above, discussed.

  13. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Methods Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. Results While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Conclusions Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches. PMID:21864330

  14. Assessing health risks of synthetic vitreous fibers: an integrative approach.

    PubMed

    McClellan, R O

    1994-12-01

    This paper reviews a tiered approach to acquiring information from multiple experimental systems to understand and assess the potential human health risks of exposure to airborne synthetic fibers. The approach is grounded in the now widely accepted research-risk assessment-risk management paradigm. It involves the acquisition of information that will provide mechanistic linkages within the exposure-dose-response paradigm. It advocates the use of the inhalation route of exposure for developing relevant information for assessing human health risks and calls attention to serious problems encountered using nonphysiologic routes of administration to assess human health risks. PMID:7724844

  15. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  16. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    SciTech Connect

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  17. Problem formulation and hypothesis testing for environmental risk assessments of genetically modified crops.

    PubMed

    Raybould, Alan

    2006-01-01

    Environmental risk assessments can provide high confidence of minimal risk by testing theories, "risk hypotheses", that predict the likelihood of unacceptable harmful events. The creation of risk hypotheses and a plan to test them is called problem formulation. Effective problem formulation seeks to maximize the possibility of detecting effects that indicate potential risk; if such effects are not detected, minimal risk is indicated with high confidence. Two important implications are that artificial test conditions can increase confidence, whereas prescriptive data requirements can reduce confidence (increase uncertainty) if they constrain problem formulation. Poor problem formulation can increase environmental risk because it leads to the collection of superfluous data that may delay or prevent the introduction of environmentally beneficial products. PMID:17445509

  18. Risk assessment of malicious biocontamination of food.

    PubMed

    Elad, Daniel

    2005-06-01

    Throughout the last decades of the 20th century, the biological threat evolved from primarily a government-controlled weapon to a tool of terrorism. One of the consequences of this trend is the near impossibility of foreseeing when and how an act of bioterrorism will occur. The suitability of food products for such an act stems from the multitude of microorganisms that may be used for contamination and the vulnerability of the products during and after processing. Tests that would enable the detection of a large variety of microorganisms quickly, reliably, and economically should also provide satisfactory means to prevent acts of malicious biocontamination of food products. Until such means become available, a priority-based approach to the problem is probably the most practical. Priorities should be determined based on a systematic risk assessment to define the relative likelihood of a certain microorganism being used in an act of malicious food contamination. Criteria to be evaluated are availability, weaponization processes, delivery of an effective dose, probability of early detection, and the microorganism's resistance to the conditions to which it will be exposed. Because the results of such an assessment may vary according to prevailing conditions, the assessment must be based on the existing circumstances. The results of the assessment should then be applied to the various procedures of food processing, which should further reduce the number of potential microbial threats. Existing methods of screening food for contaminating microorganisms and existing food safety and security procedures such as hazard analysis and critical control point programs may have to be modified to become suitable for the detection of acts of bioterrorism. PMID:15954724

  19. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    SciTech Connect

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  20. System Analysis and Risk Assessment System.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2000-11-20

    Version 00 SARA4.16 is a program that allows the user to review the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and to perform limited sensitivity analysis on these results. This tool is intended to be used by a less technical oriented user and does not require the level of understanding of PRA concepts required by a full PRA analysis tool. With this program a user can review the information generated by a PRA analyst andmore » compare the results to those generated by making limited modifications to the data in the PRA. Also included in this program is the ability to graphically display the information stored in the database. This information includes event trees, fault trees, P&IDs and uncertainty distributions. SARA 4.16 is incorporated in the SAPHIRE 5.0 code package.« less

  1. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric... destroyed would cause significant risk to the safety and health of the public; (3) Critical assets...

  2. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric... destroyed would cause significant risk to the safety and health of the public; (3) Critical assets...

  3. Evolutionary Consequences for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gochfeld, Michael; Burger, Joanna

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the use of the human health risk assessment model as a basis for developing ecological risk assessment (ERA). For ERA, risk to individuals is less important than the survival of the population, with the exception of endangered species. Suggests that ERA take into account the relative reproductive value of the potentially impacted…

  4. RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT: FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment and risk management initiatives described in this report are tools which will help make possible more efficient protection of the environment and human health. e expect to gain the following specific management advantages: isk assessment and risk management he...

  5. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT - 1/2007

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA¿s Risk Assessment Forum has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor d...

  6. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles

    SciTech Connect

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-07-15

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  7. Risk Assessment of the Carbon Nanotube Group

    PubMed Central

    Morimoto, Yasuo; Ogura, Isamu; Kobayashi, Norihiro; Naya, Masato; Ema, Makoto; Endoh, Shigehisa; Shimada, Manabu; Ogami, Akira; Myojyo, Toshihiko; Oyabu, Takako; Gamo, Masashi; Kishimoto, Atsuo; Igarashi, Takuya; Hanai, Sosuke

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed the health risks via inhalation and derived the occupational exposure limit (OEL) for the carbon nanotube (CNT) group rather than individual CNT material. We devised two methods: the integration of the intratracheal instillation (IT) data with the inhalation (IH) data, and the “biaxial approach.” A four‐week IH test and IT test were performed in rats exposed to representative materials to obtain the no observed adverse effect level, based on which the OEL was derived. We used the biaxial approach to conduct a relative toxicity assessment of six types of CNTs. An OEL of 0.03 mg/m3 was selected as the criterion for the CNT group. We proposed that the OEL be limited to 15 years. We adopted adaptive management, in which the values are reviewed whenever new data are obtained. The toxicity level was found to be correlated with the Brunauer‐Emmett‐Teller (BET)‐specific surface area (BET‐SSA) of CNT, suggesting the BET‐SSA to have potential for use in toxicity estimation. We used the published exposure data and measurement results of dustiness tests to compute the risk in relation to particle size at the workplace and showed that controlling micron‐sized respirable particles was of utmost importance. Our genotoxicity studies indicated that CNT did not directly interact with genetic materials. They supported the concept that, even if CNT is genotoxic, it is secondary genotoxicity mediated via a pathway of genotoxic damage resulting from oxidative DNA attack by free radicals generated during CNT‐elicited inflammation. Secondary genotoxicity appears to involve a threshold. PMID:25943334

  8. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    PubMed

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment. PMID:27177823

  9. Single track effects, biostack and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.B.

    1992-10-01

    This talk addresses the single-track nature of the space radiation environment, and points out the importance of single hits'' in the evaluation of radiation risk for long-term missions occurring outside the earth's magnetic field. A short review is made of biological objects found to show increased effects when hit'' by a single heavy charged-particle in space. A brief discussion is given of the most provocative results from the bacterial spore B. subtilis: experimental evidence that tracks can affect biological systems at much larger distances from the trajectory than previously suspected, and that the resultant inactivation cross section in space calculated for this system is very large. When taken at face value, the implication of these results, when compared to those from experiments performed at ground-based accelerators with beams at low energies in the same LET range, is that high-energy particles can exert their influence a surprising distance from their trajectory and the inactivation cross sections are some twenty times larger than expected. Clearly, beams from high-energy heavy-ion accelerators should be used to confirm these results. For those end points that can also be caused by low-LET beams such as high-energy protons, it is important to measure their action cross sections as well. The ratio of the cross sections for a high-LET beam to that of a low-LET beam is an interesting experimental ratio and, we suggest, of more intrinsic interest than the RBE. It is a measure of the biological'' importance of one particle type relative to another particle type. This ratio will be introduced and given the name RPPE (Relative Per Particle Effectiveness). Values of RPPE will be discussed.

  10. Single track effects, biostack and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.B.

    1992-10-01

    This talk addresses the single-track nature of the space radiation environment, and points out the importance of single ``hits`` in the evaluation of radiation risk for long-term missions occurring outside the earth`s magnetic field. A short review is made of biological objects found to show increased effects when ``hit`` by a single heavy charged-particle in space. A brief discussion is given of the most provocative results from the bacterial spore B. subtilis: experimental evidence that tracks can affect biological systems at much larger distances from the trajectory than previously suspected, and that the resultant inactivation cross section in space calculated for this system is very large. When taken at face value, the implication of these results, when compared to those from experiments performed at ground-based accelerators with beams at low energies in the same LET range, is that high-energy particles can exert their influence a surprising distance from their trajectory and the inactivation cross sections are some twenty times larger than expected. Clearly, beams from high-energy heavy-ion accelerators should be used to confirm these results. For those end points that can also be caused by low-LET beams such as high-energy protons, it is important to measure their action cross sections as well. The ratio of the cross sections for a high-LET beam to that of a low-LET beam is an interesting experimental ratio and, we suggest, of more intrinsic interest than the RBE. It is a measure of the ``biological`` importance of one particle type relative to another particle type. This ratio will be introduced and given the name RPPE (Relative Per Particle Effectiveness). Values of RPPE will be discussed.

  11. Dietary risk assessment of spinosad in China.

    PubMed

    Gao, Renjun; Dong, Jing; Zhang, Wenji; Chen, William L

    2007-10-01

    Spinosad is an insect control agent that is derived from a naturally occurring soil bacterium, and is effective on several classes of insects, especially Lepidoptera larvae. Spinosad consists mainly of a mixture of spinosyns A and D and is registered for uses on a variety of crops in many countries including China. In order to understand the residue behavior of spinosad and to evaluate the dietary risk of spinosad residue in food in China, a number of residue studies were conducted on cotton, Chinese cabbage and eggplant. Residue detection methods using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with ultraviolet (UV) detection have been validated for the detection of spinosad and its metabolites in cotton, Chinese cabbage and eggplant. The proposed definition of the residue for the estimation of spinosad dietary intake is the sum of spinosyns A and D. According to existing Chinese residue studies, the Supervised Trials Median Residues (STMRs) for cotton seed, Chinese cabbage and eggplant were less than 0.010, 0.103 and 0.045 mg/kg, respectively. Daily intake of spinosad residue in food was calculated by multiplying the pertinent Chinese food consumption data with the STMRs. Establishment of spinosad acceptable daily intake (ADI) of 0-0.02 mg/kg bw was based on a No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL) of 2.4 mg/kg bw per day and a 100-fold safety factor. Therefore, only 2% of the spinosad ADI is occupied by spinosad dietary daily intake in the Chinese population. The proposed maximum residue limits (MRLs) for spinosad on cotton seed, Chinese cabbage and eggplant are 0.01, 2 and 0.5 mg/kg, respectively. Although the STMRs for cotton and Chinese cabbage are lower or equal to STMRs used by Codex, no STMR for eggplant was used by Joint Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR) when dietary risk assessment was carried out for spinosad. If these Chinese residue studies were considered during the Codex risk assessment process, the International Estimate Daily Intakes

  12. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  13. Health Risk Assessment of Irradiated Topaz

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Kevin Lyle

    1991-06-01

    Radiation-produced blue topaz, indistinguishable from natural blue topaz, is produced by several different techniques. Published information on radionuclides present, activity levels, equipment necessary to detect activated nuclides and dosimetric assessment is lacking. Using a 60 megawatt nuclear reactor, fifty-one samples of colorless topaz from Nigeria, Sri Lanka, India and Brazil were irradiated with thermal and fast neutron fluences ranging from 1.8 times 10 13 to 9.2 times 1018 neutrons cm^{-2}. Seventeen MeV electrons produced by a linear accelerator were also used to irradiate 36 colorless topaz from the same countries. Gamma ray or positron-emitting nuclides were identified using calibrated well-type NaI or germanium detectors. For germanium detectors having relative efficiencies of approximately 20 percent, an analysis time of one hour or more was needed. Geiger Mueller (G-M) detectors, scintillators (plastic and liquid), gas flow proportional counters, a ZnS detector and autoradiography techniques were used to measure charged particle activity. Isotopes produced from neutron activation included 182Ta, ^ {59}Fe, 46Sc, 51Cr, 54Mn, 124Sb, ^{32 }P, 77As, ^ {183}Ta, 77Ge, 72Ga, and ^{24 }Na. Possible nuclides produced from 17 MeV electron treatment include ^{68 }Ga, 64Cu, ^ {49}Cr, and 18F. Positive identification of the electron activated nuclides was not possible because of the short half-lives involved (<1 day). Of the possible pure beta emitters activated during neutron bombardment, 32P and 35S are the most likely to be produced. The identification of 32P was made using a three point beta absorption analysis with a G-M detector. Skin and breast cancer risk estimates were calculated for various sized topaz containing NRC exempt concentration levels. When compared to a negligible individual risk level (NIRL) of 10^{-7}, the risk of an irradiated topaz in contact with the skin or three inches from breast tissue was a small fraction of the NIRL. At a risk

  14. Issues in Violent Risk Assessment: Lessons Learned and Future Directions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.

    2005-01-01

    Realizing that the assessment of dangerousness with a yes/no format as a poor form of violent risk assessment has been the most important lesson learned about violence in the last 20 years. Further examining (a) what outcome and (b) how the indicators of the outcome should be measured has resulted in better violent risk assessment. The most…

  15. The Process of Suicide Risk Assessment: Twelve Core Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Granello, Darcy Haag

    2010-01-01

    Suicide risk assessment requires counselors to determine client risk factors, warning signs, and protective factors. The content of suicide assessment has received attention in the literature. The guiding principles of the process of suicide assessment, however, have not yet been articulated. This article contains 12 core process principles that…

  16. Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

    PubMed

    Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

    2016-07-27

    Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence. PMID:27461329

  17. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... to have a high degree of confidence. (b) How does the risk assessment handle interaction risks for... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems,...

  18. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... to have a high degree of confidence. (b) How does the risk assessment handle interaction risks for... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems,...

  19. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... to have a high degree of confidence. (b) How does the risk assessment handle interaction risks for... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems,...

  20. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Cancer.gov

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.