Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2009-10-01

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to themore » economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.« less

Risk communication discourse among ecological risk assessment professionals and its implications for communication with nonexperts.

PubMed

Hunka, Agnieszka D; Palmqvist, Annemette; Thorbek, Pernille; Forbes, Valery E

2013-10-01

Risk communication, especially to the general public and end users of plant protection products, is an important challenge. Currently, much of the risk communication the general public receives is via the popular press, and risk managers face the challenge of presenting their decisions and their scientific basis to the general public in an understandable way. Therefore, we decided to explore the obstacles in risk communication, as done by expert risk assessors and managers. Using the discourse analysis framework and readability tests, we studied perspectives of 3 stakeholder groups-regulators, industry representatives, and academics across Europe. We conducted 30 confidential interviews (10 participants in each group), with part of the interview guide focused on communication of pesticide risk to the general public and the ideas experts in the field of risk assessment and management hold of the public perception of pesticides. We used the key informant approach in recruiting our participants. They were first identified as key stakeholders in ecological risk assessment of pesticides and then sampled by means of a snowball sampling technique. In the analysis, first we identified main motifs (themes) in each group, and then we moved to studying length of the sentences and grammar and to uncovering discourses present in the text data. We also used the Flesch Reading Ease test to determine the comprehension difficulty of transcribed interviews. The test is commonly used as a standard for estimating the readability of technical documents. Our results highlight 3 main obstacles standing in the way of effective communication with wider audiences. First of all, ecological risk assessment as a highly technical procedure uses the specific language of ecological risk assessment, which is also highly specialized and might be difficult to comprehend by nonexperts. Second, the idea of existing "expert-lay discrepancy," a phenomenon described in risk perception studies is visibly

Frontal plane comparison between drop jump and vertical jump: implications for the assessment of ACL risk of injury.

PubMed

Cesar, Guilherme M; Tomasevicz, Curtis L; Burnfield, Judith M

2016-11-01

The potential to use the vertical jump (VJ) to assess both athletic performance and risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury could have widespread clinical implications since VJ is broadly used in high school, university, and professional sport settings. Although drop jump (DJ) and VJ observationally exhibit similar lower extremity mechanics, the extent to which VJ can also be used as screening tool for ACL injury risk has not been assessed. This study evaluated whether individuals exhibit similar knee joint frontal plane kinematic and kinetic patterns when performing VJs compared with DJs. Twenty-eight female collegiate athletes performed DJs and VJs. Paired t-tests indicated that peak knee valgus angles did not differ significantly between tasks (p = 0.419); however, peak knee internal adductor moments were significantly larger during the DJ vs. VJ (p < 0.001). Pearson correlations between the DJ and VJ revealed strong correlations for knee valgus angles (r = 0.93, p < 0.001) and for internal knee adductor moments (r = 0.82, p < 0.001). Our results provide grounds for investigating whether frontal plane knee mechanics during VJ can predict ACL injuries and thus can be used as an effective tool for the assessment of risk of ACL injury in female athletes.

Ownership of high-risk ("vicious") dogs as a marker for deviant behaviors: implications for risk assessment.

PubMed

Barnes, Jaclyn E; Boat, Barbara W; Putnam, Frank W; Dates, Harold F; Mahlman, Andrew R

2006-12-01

This study examined the association between ownership of high-risk ("vicious") dogs and the presence of deviant behaviors in the owners as indicated by court convictions. We also explored whether two characteristics of dog ownership (abiding licensing laws and choice of breed) could be useful areas of inquiry when assessing risk status in settings where children are present. Our matched sample consisted of 355 owners of either licensed or cited dogs that represented high or low-risk breeds. Categories of criminal convictions examined were aggressive crimes, drugs, alcohol, domestic violence, crimes involving children, firearm convictions, and major and minor traffic citations. Owners of cited high-risk ("vicious") dogs had significantly more criminal convictions than owners of licensed low-risk dogs. Findings suggest that the ownership of a high-risk ("vicious") dog can be a significant marker for general deviance and should be an element considered when assessing risk for child endangerment.

EPA ACTIVITIES TO PREPARE FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS OF GENOMICS INFORMATION

EPA Science Inventory

Genomics will have significant implications for risk assessment and regulatory decision making. Since 2002, the U.S. EPA has undertaken a number of cross-Agency activities to further prepare itself to receive,interpret and apply genomics information for risk assessment and regul...

There is more to risk and safety planning than dramatic risks: Mental health nurses' risk assessment and safety-management practice.

PubMed

Higgins, Agnes; Doyle, Louise; Downes, Carmel; Morrissey, Jean; Costello, Paul; Brennan, Michael; Nash, Michael

2016-04-01

Risk assessment and safety planning are considered a cornerstone of mental health practice, yet limited research exists into how mental health nurses conceptualize 'risk' and how they engage with risk assessment and safety planning. The aim of the present study was to explore mental health nurses' practices and confidence in risk assessment and safety planning. A self-completed survey was administered to 381 mental health nurses in Ireland. The findings indicate that nurses focus on risk to self and risk to others, with the risk of suicide, self-harm, substance abuse, and violence being most frequently assessed. Risk from others and 'iatrogenic' risk were less frequently considered. Overall, there was limited evidence of recovery-oriented practice in relation to risk. The results demonstrate a lack of meaningful engagement with respect to collaborative safety planning, the identification and inclusion of protective factors, and the inclusion of positive risk-taking opportunities. In addition, respondents report a lack of confidence working with positive risk taking and involving family/carers in the risk-assessment and safety-planning process. Gaps in knowledge about risk-assessment and safety-planning practice, which could be addressed through education, are identified, as are the implications of the findings for practice and research. © 2015 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Germline genetic variants with implications for disease risk and therapeutic outcomes.

PubMed

Pasternak, Amy L; Ward, Kristen M; Luzum, Jasmine A; Ellingrod, Vicki L; Hertz, Daniel L

2017-10-01

Genetic testing has multiple clinical applications including disease risk assessment, diagnosis, and pharmacogenomics. Pharmacogenomics can be utilized to predict whether a pharmacologic therapy will be effective or to identify patients at risk for treatment-related toxicity. Although genetic tests are typically ordered for a distinct clinical purpose, the genetic variants that are found may have additional implications for either disease or pharmacology. This review will address multiple examples of germline genetic variants that are informative for both disease and pharmacogenomics. The discussed relationships are diverse. Some of the agents are targeted for the disease-causing genetic variant, while others, although not targeted therapies, have implications for the disease they are used to treat. It is also possible that the disease implications of a genetic variant are unrelated to the pharmacogenomic implications. Some of these examples are considered clinically actionable pharmacogenes, with evidence-based, pharmacologic treatment recommendations, while others are still investigative as areas for additional research. It is important that clinicians are aware of both the disease and pharmacogenomic associations of these germline genetic variants to ensure patients are receiving comprehensive personalized care. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Risk Assessment and Implication of Human Exposure to Road Dust Heavy Metals in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

PubMed Central

Shabbaj, Ibrahim I.; Alghamdi, Mansour A.; Shamy, Magdy; Alsharif, Musaab M.; Khoder, Mamdouh I.

2017-01-01

Data dealing with the assessment of heavy metal pollution in road dusts in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and its implication to human health risk of human exposure to heavy metals, are scarce. Road dusts were collected from five different functional areas (traffic areas (TA), parking areas (PA), residential areas (RA), mixed residential commercial areas (MCRA) and suburban areas (SA)) in Jeddah and one in a rural area (RUA) in Hada Al Sham. We aimed to measure the pollution levels of heavy metals and estimate their health risk of human exposure applying risk assessment models described by United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Using geo-accumulation index (Igeo), the pollution level of heavy metals in urban road dusts was in the following order Cd > As > Pb > Zn > Cu > Ni > Cr > V > Mn > Co > Fe. Urban road dust was found to be moderately to heavily contaminated with As, Pb and Zn, and heavily to extremely contaminated with Cd. Calculation of enrichment factor (EF) revealed that heavy metals in TA had the highest values compared to that of the other functional areas. Cd, As, Pb, Zn and Cu were severely enriched, while Mn, V, Co, Ni and Cr were moderately enriched. Fe was considered as a natural element and consequently excluded. The concentrations of heavy metals in road dusts of functional areas were in the following order: TA > PA > MCRA > SA > RA > RUA. The study revealed that both children and adults in all studied areas having health quotient (HQ) < 1 are at negligible non-carcinogenic risk. The only exception was for children exposed to As in TA. They had an ingestion health quotient (HQing) 1.18 and a health index (HI) 1.19. The most prominent exposure route was ingestion. The cancer risk for children and adults from exposure to Pb, Cd, Co, Ni, and Cr was found to be negligible (≤1 × 10−6). PMID:29278373

Development of a Fall-Risk Self-Assessment for Community-Dwelling Seniors

PubMed Central

Vivrette, Rebecca L.; Rubenstein, Laurence Z.; Martin, Jennifer L.; Josephson, Karen R.; Kramer, B. Josea

2012-01-01

Objective To determine seniors’ beliefs about falls and design a fall-risk self-assessment and educational materials to promote early identification of evidence-based fall risks and encourage prevention behaviors. Methods Focus groups with community-dwelling seniors, conducted in two phases to identify perceptions about fall risks and risk reduction and to assess face validity of the fall-risk self-assessment and acceptability of educational materials. Results Lay perception of fall risks was in general concordance with evidence-based research. Maintaining independence and positive tone were perceived as key motivators for fall prevention. Seniors intended to use information in the educational tool to stimulate discussions about falls with health care providers. Implications An evidence-based, educational fall-risk self-assessment acceptable to older adults can build on existing lay knowledge about fall risks and perception that falls are a relevant problem and can educate seniors about their specific risks and how to minimize them. PMID:21285473

Formaldehyde and LeukemiA: Epidemiology, Potential Mechanisms and Implications for Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Formaldehyde is widely used in the United States and other countries. Occupational and environmental exposures to formaldehyde may be associated with an increased risk of leukemia in exposed individuals. However, risk assessment of formaldehyde and leukemia has been challenging ...

Response of Silicon-Based Linear Energy Transfer Spectrometers: Implication for Radiation Risk Assessment in Space Flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badhwar, G. D.; O'Neill, P. M.

2001-01-01

There is considerable interest in developing silicon-based telescopes because of their compactness and low power requirements. Three such telescopes have been flown on board the Space Shuttle to measure the linear energy transfer spectra of trapped, galactic cosmic ray, and solar energetic particles. Dosimeters based on single silicon detectors have also been flown on the Mir orbital station. A comparison of the absorbed dose and radiation quality factors calculated from these telescopes with that estimated from measurements made with a tissue equivalent proportional counter show differences which need to be fully understood if these telescopes are to be used for astronaut radiation risk assessments. Instrument performance is complicated by a variety of factors. A Monte Carlo-based technique was developed to model the behavior of both single element detectors in a proton beam, and the performance of a two-element, wide-angle telescope, in the trapped belt proton field inside the Space Shuttle. The technique is based on: (1) radiation transport intranuclear-evaporation model that takes into account the charge and angular distribution of target fragments, (2) Landau-Vavilov distribution of energy deposition allowing for electron escape, (3) true detector geometry of the telescope, (4) coincidence and discriminator settings, (5) spacecraft shielding geometry, and (6) the external space radiation environment, including albedo protons. The value of such detailed modeling and its implications in astronaut risk assessment is addressed. c2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Response of silicon-based linear energy transfer spectrometers: implication for radiation risk assessment in space flights.

PubMed

Badhwar, G D; O'Neill, P M

2001-07-11

There is considerable interest in developing silicon-based telescopes because of their compactness and low power requirements. Three such telescopes have been flown on board the Space Shuttle to measure the linear energy transfer spectra of trapped, galactic cosmic ray, and solar energetic particles. Dosimeters based on single silicon detectors have also been flown on the Mir orbital station. A comparison of the absorbed dose and radiation quality factors calculated from these telescopes with that estimated from measurements made with a tissue equivalent proportional counter show differences which need to be fully understood if these telescopes are to be used for astronaut radiation risk assessments. Instrument performance is complicated by a variety of factors. A Monte Carlo-based technique was developed to model the behavior of both single element detectors in a proton beam, and the performance of a two-element, wide-angle telescope, in the trapped belt proton field inside the Space Shuttle. The technique is based on: (1) radiation transport intranuclear-evaporation model that takes into account the charge and angular distribution of target fragments, (2) Landau-Vavilov distribution of energy deposition allowing for electron escape, (3) true detector geometry of the telescope, (4) coincidence and discriminator settings, (5) spacecraft shielding geometry, and (6) the external space radiation environment, including albedo protons. The value of such detailed modeling and its implications in astronaut risk assessment is addressed. c2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing exposure risk for dust storm events-associated lung function decrement in asthmatics and implications for control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Liao, Chung-Min

2013-04-01

Asian dust storms (ADS) events are seasonally-based meteorological phenomena that exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases. The purpose of this study was to assess human health risk from airborne dust exposure during ADS events in Taiwan. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed based on exposure and experimental data to quantify ADS events induced lung function decrement. The study reanalyzed experimental data from aerosol challenge in asthmatic individuals to construct the dose-response relationship between inhaled dust aerosol dose and decreasing percentage of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (%FEV1). An empirical lung deposition model was used to predict deposition fraction for size specific dust aerosols in pulmonary regions. The toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models were used to simulate dust aerosols binding kinetics in lung airway in that %FEV1 change was also predicted. The mask respirators were applied to control the inhaled dose under dust aerosols exposure. Our results found that only 2% probability the mild ADS events were likely to cause %FEV1 decrement higher than 5%. There were 50% probability of decreasing %FEV1 exceeding 16.9, 18.9, and 7.1% in north, center, and south Taiwan under severe ADS events, respectively. Our result implicates that the use of activated carbon of mask respirators has the best efficacy for reducing inhaled dust aerosol dose, by which the %FEV1 decrement can be reduced up to less than 1%.

The role of interactions along the flood process chain and implications for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Apel, Heiko; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Lüdtke, Stefan; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Floods with their manifold characteristics are shaped by various processes along the flood process chain - from triggering meteorological extremes through catchment and river network process down to impacts on societies. In flood risk systems numerous interactions and feedbacks along the process chain may occur which finally shape spatio-temporal flood patterns and determine the ultimate risk. In this talk, we review some important interactions in the atmosphere-catchment, river-dike-floodplain and vulnerability compartments of the flood risk system. We highlight the importance of spatial interactions for flood hazard and risk assessment. For instance, the role of spatial rainfall structure or wave superposition in river networks is elucidated with selected case studies. In conclusion, we show the limits of current methods in assessment of large-scale flooding and outline the approach to more comprehensive risk assessment based on our regional flood risk model (RFM) for Germany.

Ownership of High-Risk ("Vicious") Dogs as a Marker for Deviant Behaviors: Implications for Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnes, Jaclyn E.; Boat, Barbara W.; Putnam, Frank W.; Dates, Harold F.; Mahlman, Andrew R.

2006-01-01

This study examined the association between ownership of high-risk ("vicious") dogs and the presence of deviant behaviors in the owners as indicated by court convictions. We also explored whether two characteristics of dog ownership (abiding licensing laws and choice of breed) could be useful areas of inquiry when assessing risk status…

The influence of thresholds on the risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

PubMed

Pratt, Iona; Barlow, Susan; Kleiner, Juliane; Larsen, John Christian

2009-08-01

The risks from exposure to chemical contaminants in food must be scientifically assessed, in order to safeguard the health of consumers. Risk assessment of chemical contaminants that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic presents particular difficulties, since the effects of such substances are normally regarded as being without a threshold. No safe level can therefore be defined, and this has implications for both risk management and risk communication. Risk management of these substances in food has traditionally involved application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle, however ALARA does not enable risk managers to assess the urgency and extent of the risk reduction measures needed. A more refined approach is needed, and several such approaches have been developed. Low-dose linear extrapolation from animal carcinogenicity studies or epidemiological studies to estimate risks for humans at low exposure levels has been applied by a number of regulatory bodies, while more recently the Margin of Exposure (MOE) approach has been applied by both the European Food Safety Authority and the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives. A further approach is the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC), which establishes exposure thresholds for chemicals present in food, dependent on structure. Recent experimental evidence that genotoxic responses may be thresholded has significant implications for the risk assessment of chemicals that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic. In relation to existing approaches such as linear extrapolation, MOE and TTC, the existence of a threshold reduces the uncertainties inherent in such methodology and improves confidence in the risk assessment. However, for the foreseeable future, regulatory decisions based on the concept of thresholds for genotoxic carcinogens are likely to be taken case-by-case, based on convincing data on the Mode of Action indicating that the rate limiting variable for the development of cancer

Clinical implications of risk aversion: an online study of risk-avoidance and treatment utilization in pathological anxiety.

PubMed

Lorian, Carolyn N; Grisham, Jessica R

2011-08-01

Previous research suggests that the pervasive tendency to avoid perceived risks (i.e., the safety bias) may be implicated in the maintenance of pathological anxiety. These studies have not explored, however, the potential clinical implications of such a bias, such as the influence of risk aversion on treatment seeking. The aim of this study was to investigate how risk-avoidance is related to willingness to seek treatment in an online sample of clinically anxious individuals with social phobia (SP), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Healthy control participants (n=117) and those endorsing criteria for one or more anxiety disorder(s) (n=92; SP, n=33; OCD, n=19; GAD, n=40) were recruited from various online sources. Respondents completed an online survey comprised of a validated diagnostic interview, self-report measures assessing for symptom severity, risk-taking across various domains, a generalized index of risk-taking and treatment utilization. Consistent with hypotheses, SP and GAD individuals reported significantly more risk-avoidance when compared to non-clinical controls. Furthermore, willingness to seek treatment was found to be positively associated with social risk-taking and generalized risk-taking orientation in clinically anxious individuals who had never sought treatment. These results suggest that certain individual cognitive factors may contribute to the decision to seek treatment and may provide an interesting avenue of future investigation for increasing service utilization and treatment seeking in anxious populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of a legal prime on clinician's assessment of suicide risk.

PubMed

Berman, Noah Chase; Sullivan, Alexandra; Wilhelm, Sabine; Cohen, I Glenn

2016-01-01

The present study evaluates how liability influences mental health clinicians' assessment of suicide risk. In this online vignette-based experiment, clinicians (N = 268) were either primed with a legal standard prior to a case vignette or presented the case vignette alone. Clinicians then rated the patient's likelihood of suicide and need for hospitalization. Results indicated that trainees provided significantly lower ratings of suicide risk following presentation of the legal standard, but this was not associated with hospitalization endorsement. Results have training and legal implications for improving the accuracy of suicide risk assessment in both trainees and licensed professionals.

Incorporating genomics into breast and prostate cancer screening: assessing the implications

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Pashayan, Nora; Hall, Alison; Lyratzopoulos, Georgios; Hallowell, Nina; Hall, Per; Pharoah, Paul; Burton, Hilary

2013-01-01

Individual risk prediction and stratification based on polygenic profiling may be useful in disease prevention. Risk-stratified population screening based on multiple factors including a polygenic risk profile has the potential to be more efficient than age-stratified screening. In this article, we summarize the implications of personalized screening for breast and prostate cancers. We report the opinions of multidisciplinary international experts who have explored the scientific, ethical, and logistical aspects of stratified screening. We have identified (i) the need to recognize the benefits and harms of personalized screening as compared with existing screening methods, (ii) that the use of genetic data highlights complex ethical issues including discrimination against high-risk individuals by insurers and employers and patient autonomy in relation to genetic testing of minors, (iii) the need for transparency and clear communication about risk scores, about harms and benefits, and about reasons for inclusion and exclusion from the risk-based screening process, and (iv) the need to develop new professional competences and to assess cost-effectiveness and acceptability of stratified screening programs before implementation. We conclude that health professionals and stakeholders need to consider the implications of incorporating genetic information in intervention strategies for health-care planning in the future. Genet Med 2013:15(6):423–432 PMID:23412607

Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

Susceptibility based upon Chemical Interaction with Disease Processes: Potential Implications for Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

One of the challenges facing toxicology and risk assessment is that numerous host and environmental factors may modulate vulnerability and risk. An area of increasing interest is the potential for chemicals to interact with background aging and disease processes, an interaction...

Soil pH Errors Propagation from Measurements to Spatial Predictions - Cost Benefit Analysis and Risk Assessment Implications for Practitioners and Modelers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, P. R.; Libohova, Z.; Seybold, C. A.; Wills, S. A.; Peaslee, S.; Beaudette, D.; Lindbo, D. L.

2017-12-01

The measurement errors and spatial prediction uncertainties of soil properties in the modeling community are usually assessed against measured values when available. However, of equal importance is the assessment of errors and uncertainty impacts on cost benefit analysis and risk assessments. Soil pH was selected as one of the most commonly measured soil properties used for liming recommendations. The objective of this study was to assess the error size from different sources and their implications with respect to management decisions. Error sources include measurement methods, laboratory sources, pedotransfer functions, database transections, spatial aggregations, etc. Several databases of measured and predicted soil pH were used for this study including the United States National Cooperative Soil Survey Characterization Database (NCSS-SCDB), the US Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database. The distribution of errors among different sources from measurement methods to spatial aggregation showed a wide range of values. The greatest RMSE of 0.79 pH units was from spatial aggregation (SSURGO vs Kriging), while the measurement methods had the lowest RMSE of 0.06 pH units. Assuming the order of data acquisition based on the transaction distance i.e. from measurement method to spatial aggregation the RMSE increased from 0.06 to 0.8 pH units suggesting an "error propagation". This has major implications for practitioners and modeling community. Most soil liming rate recommendations are based on 0.1 pH unit increments, while the desired soil pH level increments are based on 0.4 to 0.5 pH units. Thus, even when the measured and desired target soil pH are the same most guidelines recommend 1 ton ha-1 lime, which translates in 111 ha-1 that the farmer has to factor in the cost-benefit analysis. However, this analysis need to be based on uncertainty predictions (0.5-1.0 pH units) rather than measurement errors (0.1 pH units) which would translate in 555-1,111 investment that

Risk Assessment Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

PubMed Central

Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

[Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

PubMed

Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

2016-08-20

Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

Metal release from stainless steel powders and massive sheets--comparison and implication for risk assessment of alloys.

PubMed

Hedberg, Yolanda; Mazinanian, Neda; Odnevall Wallinder, Inger

2013-02-01

Industries that place metal and alloy products on the market are required to demonstrate that they are safe for all intended uses, and that any risks to humans, animals or the environment are adequately controlled. This requires reliable and robust in vitro test procedures. The aim of this study is to compare the release of alloy constituents from stainless steel powders of different grades (focus on AISI 316L) and production routes into synthetic body fluids with the release of the same metals from massive sheets in relation to material and surface characteristics. The comparison is justified by the fact that the difference between massive surfaces and powders from a metal release/dissolution and surface perspective is not clearly elucidated within current legislations. Powders and abraded and aged (24 h) massive sheets were exposed to synthetic solutions of relevance for biological settings and human exposure routes, for periods of up to one week. Concentrations of released iron, chromium, nickel, and manganese in solution were measured, and the effect of solution pH, acidity, complexation capacity, and proteins elucidated in relation to surface oxide composition and its properties. Implications for risk assessments based on in vitro metal release data from alloys are elucidated.

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

1995-01-01

Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

Operational risk assessment.

PubMed

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

2018-06-01

Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

Common vole (Microtus arvalis) ecology and management: implications for risk assessment of plant protection products.

PubMed

Jacob, Jens; Manson, Phil; Barfknecht, Ralf; Fredricks, Timothy

2014-06-01

Common voles (Microtus arvalis) are common small mammals in some European landscapes. They can be a major rodent pest in European agriculture and they are also a representative generic focal small herbivorous mammal species used in risk assessment for plant protection products. In this paper, common vole population dynamics, habitat and food preferences, pest potential and use of the common vole as a model small wild mammal species in the risk assessment process are reviewed. Common voles are a component of agroecosystems in many parts of Europe, inhabiting agricultural areas (secondary habitats) when the carrying capacity of primary grassland habitats is exceeded. Colonisation of secondary habitats occurs during multiannual outbreaks, when population sizes can exceed 1000 individuals ha(-1) . In such cases, in-crop common vole population control management has been practised to avoid significant crop damage. The species' status as a crop pest, high fecundity, resilience to disturbance and intermittent colonisation of crop habitats are important characteristics that should be reflected in risk assessment. Based on the information provided in the scientific literature, it seems justified to modify elements of the current risk assessment scheme for plant protection products, including the use of realistic food intake rates, reduced assessment factors or the use of alternativee focal rodent species in particular European regions. Some of these adjustments are already being applied in some EU member states. Therefore, it seems reasonable consistently to apply such pragmatic and realistic approaches in risk assessments for plant protection products across the EU. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

PubMed

Leake, Jonathan R; Adam-Bradford, Andrew; Rigby, Janette E

2009-12-21

Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with 'greenspace' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from 'grow-your-own' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating 'scares' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of 'obesity and sloth' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of 'grow-your-own' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide risk management in our

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

MedlinePlus

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Co-occurring mental health and substance use problems in offenders: implications for risk assessment.

PubMed

Ruiz, Mark A; Douglas, Kevin S; Edens, John F; Nikolova, Natalia L; Lilienfeld, Scott O

2012-03-01

We undertook a secondary data analysis to study issues relevant to co-occurring mental health and substance disorder in a combined sample of offenders (N = 3,197). Using the Personality Assessment Inventory, we compared the frequency of depressive, traumatic stress, and personality disorder symptom elevations across offenders with and without substance problems, identified the extent to which co-occurring problems were accompanied by risk factors for suicide and aggression, and tested for gender differences. Offenders with substance problems were more likely than others to have increased mental health problems and risk factors for suicide or aggression. Women with substance problems, compared with men, had higher depression, traumatic stress, and borderline features, in addition to lower antisocial features. The frequency with which suicide and aggression risk factors were associated with mental health problems was generally similar across men and women. Measurement issues relevant to co-occurring disorder and risk assessment are discussed.

Non-Renal Effects and the Risk Assessment of Environmental Cadmium Exposure

PubMed Central

Barregard, Lars; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Nordberg, Gunnar F.; Nordberg, Monica; Skerfving, Staffan

2014-01-01

Background: Exposure to cadmium (Cd) has long been recognized as a health hazard, both in industry and in general populations with high exposure. Under the currently prevailing health risk assessment, the relationship between urinary Cd (U-Cd) concentrations and tubular proteinuria is used. However, doubts have recently been raised regarding the justification of basing the risk assessment on this relationship at very low exposure. Objectives: Our objective was to review available information on health effects of Cd exposure with respect to human health risk assessment. Discussion: The associations between U-Cd and urinary proteins at very low exposure may not be due to Cd toxicity, and the clinical significance of slight proteinuria may also be limited. More importantly, other effects have been reported at very low Cd exposure. There is reason to challenge the basis of the existing health risk assessment for Cd. Our review of the literature found that exposure to low concentrations of Cd is associated with effects on bone, including increased risk of osteoporosis and fractures, and that this observation has implications for the health risk assessment of Cd. Other effects associated with Cd should also be considered, in particular cancer, although the information is still too limited for appropriate use in quantitative risk assessment. Conclusion: Non-renal effects should be considered critical effects in the health risk assessment of Cd. Citation: Åkesson A, Barregard L, Bergdahl IA, Nordberg GF, Nordberg M, Skerfving S. 2014. Non-renal effects and the risk assessment of environmental cadmium exposure. Environ Health Perspect 122:431–438; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307110 PMID:24569905

'She'll Be Right.' Or Will She? Practitioner Perspectives on Risk Assessment for Led Outdoor Activities in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dallat, Clare; Goode, Natassia; Salmon, Paul M.

2018-01-01

Inadequate risk assessment has been implicated as a contributory factor in the deaths and injuries of participants on led outdoor activity (LOA) programmes in both Australia and overseas. The identification and assessment of risks is a required component of LOA programmes, and multiple risk assessment methods and techniques are available to the…

GM Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

PubMed

Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

2017-08-01

To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Schedule Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Greg

2003-01-01

Schedule risk assessments determine the likelihood of finishing on time. Each task in a schedule has a varying degree of probability of being finished on time. A schedule risk assessment quantifies these probabilities by assigning values to each task. This viewgraph presentation contains a flow chart for conducting a schedule risk assessment, and profiles applicable several methods of data analysis.

Health risks of climate change: an assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies.

PubMed

Wardekker, J Arjan; de Jong, Arie; van Bree, Leendert; Turkenburg, Wim C; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P

2012-09-19

Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system's and society's capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health

The impacts of uncertainty and variability in groundwater-driven health risk assessment. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.

2010-12-01

Potential human health risk from contaminated groundwater is becoming an important, quantitative measure used in management decisions in a range of applications from Superfund to CO2 sequestration. Quantitatively assessing the potential human health risks from contaminated groundwater is challenging due to the many coupled processes, uncertainty in transport parameters and the variability in individual physiology and behavior. Perspective on human health risk assessment techniques will be presented and a framework used to predict potential, increased human health risk from contaminated groundwater will be discussed. This framework incorporates transport of contaminants through the subsurface from source to receptor and health risks to individuals via household exposure pathways. The subsurface is shown subject to both physical and chemical heterogeneity which affects downstream concentrations at receptors. Cases are presented where hydraulic conductivity can exhibit both uncertainty and spatial variability in addition to situations where hydraulic conductivity is the dominant source of uncertainty in risk assessment. Management implications, such as characterization and remediation will also be discussed.

Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa. PMID:23880010

Endocrine disrupting compounds in drinking water supply system and human health risk implication.

PubMed

Wee, Sze Yee; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

2017-09-01

To date, experimental and epidemiological evidence of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) adversely affecting human and animal populations has been widely debated. Notably, human health risk assessment is required for risk mitigation. The lack of human health risk assessment and management may thus unreliably regulate the quality of water resources and efficiency of treatment processes. Therefore, drinking water supply systems (DWSSs) may be still unwarranted in assuring safe access to potable drinking water. Drinking water supply, such as tap water, is an additional and crucial route of human exposure to the health risks associated with EDCs. A holistic system, incorporating continuous research in DWSS monitoring and management using multi-barrier approach, is proposed as a preventive measure to reduce human exposure to the risks associated with EDCs through drinking water consumption. The occurrence of EDCs in DWSSs and corresponding human health risk implications are analyzed using the Needs, Approaches, Benefits, and Challenges (NABC) method. Therefore, this review may act as a supportive tool in protecting human health and environmental quality from EDCs, which is essential for decision-making regarding environmental monitoring and management purposes. Subsequently, the public could have sustainable access to safer and more reliable drinking water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

PubMed

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Risk Assessment of Alzheimer's Disease using the Information Diffusion Model from Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

PubMed

Beheshti, Iman; Olya, Hossain G T; Demirel, Hasan

2016-04-05

Recently, automatic risk assessment methods have been a target for the detection of Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk. This study aims to develop an automatic computer-aided AD diagnosis technique for risk assessment of AD using information diffusion theory. Information diffusion is a fuzzy mathematics logic of set-value that is used for risk assessment of natural phenomena, which attaches fuzziness (uncertainty) and incompleteness. Data were obtained from voxel-based morphometry analysis of structural magnetic resonance imaging. The information diffusion model results revealed that the risk of AD increases with a reduction of the normalized gray matter ratio (p > 0.5, normalized gray matter ratio <40%). The information diffusion model results were evaluated by calculation of the correlation of two traditional risk assessments of AD, the Mini-Mental State Examination and the Clinical Dementia Rating. The correlation results revealed that the information diffusion model findings were in line with Mini-Mental State Examination and Clinical Dementia Rating results. Application of information diffusion model contributes to the computerization of risk assessment of AD, which has a practical implication for the early detection of AD.

Ethnic and cultural determinants influence risk assessment for hepatitis C acquisition.

PubMed

Dev, Anouk; Sundararajan, Vijaya; Sievert, William

2004-07-01

In the developed world hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is predominantly associated with sharing contaminated equipment between injecting drug users (IDU). In developing countries inadequately sterilized medical equipment, transmission of infected blood and cultural practices have been implicated. Accurate risk factor assessment is essential for education targeted at risk reduction in culturally diverse populations. Ninety Australian-born Caucasians and 72 South-east Asian (SEA) HCV patients attending a Melbourne hospital liver clinic completed a questionnaire which assessed risk factor profile, perceived risk factors, knowledge of risk factors and methods to minimize transmission. Medical records were audited to identify doctor assessment of risk factors. Risk factors in Caucasians were IDU, body piercing and tattooing (89%, 47% and 32%, respectively). Risk factors in SEA patients were injection therapy, dental therapy and surgery (89%, 70% and 38%, respectively). Most Caucasian patients (94%) correctly identified their mode of acquisition compared with 33% of SEA patients (P < 0.0001). Accurate risk factor documentation in medical records was more common in Caucasians (96 vs 32%; P < 0.0001). The majority of patients identified blood-to-blood and sexual/vertical transmission as important modes of acquisition. However, 33% of SEA patients believed transmission occurred through food, water and poor hygiene and 80% did not identify therapeutic injection or traditional medical practices as risk factors. Education provided to SEA patients did not address less well established routes of transmission. Ethnicity influences perception and knowledge of risk factors. Improved assessment of risk factors in high-risk ethnic groups is needed. Education should be culturally appropriate and address the concerns of all populations with HCV. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

Risk assessment with victims of intimate partner violence: investigating the gap between research and practice.

PubMed

Cattaneo, Lauren Bennett; Chapman, Aliya R

2011-10-01

In intimate partner violence (IPV) risk assessment, there is consensus that a large gap exists between research and practice. This exploratory study interviewed 13 practitioners working with IPV victims to generate ideas about the nature of this gap, and found that only two conducted standardized risk assessment. Others felt imposing structure might detract from the quality of their work. Results support the need for different techniques in different contexts; some adjust only speed of services according to their risk perception, whereas others use in-depth information to customize services. Perspectives appear particularly disparate regarding victim minimization of risk. Implications for future work are discussed.

Reliability of risk assessment measures used in sexually violent predator proceedings.

PubMed

Miller, Cailey S; Kimonis, Eva R; Otto, Randy K; Kline, Suzonne M; Wasserman, Adam L

2012-12-01

The field interrater reliability of three assessment tools frequently used by mental health professionals when evaluating sex offenders' risk for reoffending--the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) and the Static-99-was examined within the context of sexually violent predator program proceedings. Rater agreement was highest for the Static--99 (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC₁] = .78) and lowest for the PCL-R (ICC₁ = .60; MnSOST-R ICC₁ = .74), although all instruments demonstrated lower field reliability than that reported in their test manuals. Findings raise concerns about the reliability of risk assessment tools that are used to inform judgments of risk in high-stake sexually violent predator proceedings. Implications for future research and suggestions for improving evaluator training to increase accuracy when informing legal decision making are discussed.

[Are near-death experiences following attempted suicide important for suicide risk assessment? A case report].

PubMed

Kralovec, Karl; Plöderl, Martin; Aistleiner, Ursula; Fartacek, Clemens; Fartacek, Reinhold

2009-01-01

We describe a 59-year old patient who reported a near-death experience following attempted suicide. The near-death experience induced reduction of suicidality. Previous studies suggested a high prevalence of near-death experiences following attempted suicide and that near-death experiences may decrease rather than increase subsequent suicide risk. Implications for suicide risk assessment are discussed.

Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

PubMed

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2016-01-01

The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less

Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Post-disaster Risk Assessment for Hilly Terrain exposed to Seismic Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, Katherine; Villeneuve, Marlene; Wilson, Thomas

2013-04-01

The 2010-present Canterbury earthquake sequence in the central South Island of New Zealand has identified and highlighted the value of practical, standardised and coordinated geotechnical risk assessment guidelines for inhabited structures in the aftermath of a geotechnical disaster. The lack of such guidelines and provisions to enforce risk assessments was a major gap which hindered coordinated, timely and transparent management of geotechnical risk. The earthquake sequence initiated a series of rockfall, cliff collapse and landslide events around the Port Hills southeast of Christchurch. This was particularly the case with the 22 February 2011 earthquakes, which put thousands of people inhabiting the area at risk. Lives were lost and thousands of houses and critical infrastructure were damaged. Given the highly seismic environment in New Zealand and a significant number of active faults near population centres, it is prudent to develop such guidelines to ensure response mechanisms and geotechnical risk assessment is effective following an earthquake rupture in a largely populated urban environment. For response and associated risk assessments to be effective, the mechanisms of the geotechnical failure should be taken into consideration as part of the life safety assessment. This is to ensure that the hazard's potential risk is fully assessed and encompassed in decisions regarding life safety. This paper examines the event sequence, slope failure mechanisms and the geotechnical risk management approach that developed immediately post-earthquake. It highlights experiences from key municipal, management and operational stakeholders who were involved in geotechnical risk assessment during the Canterbury earthquake sequence, and sheds light on the evolution of information needed through time during the emergency response and identify the hard won lessons. It then discusses what is needed for life safety assessment post-earthquake and create awareness of potential

Current understanding of the mechanism of benzene-induced leukemia in humans: implications for risk assessment

PubMed Central

McHale, Cliona M.; Zhang, Luoping; Smith, Martyn T.

2012-01-01

Benzene causes acute myeloid leukemia and probably other hematological malignancies. As benzene also causes hematotoxicity even in workers exposed to levels below the US permissible occupational exposure limit of 1 part per million, further assessment of the health risks associated with its exposure, particularly at low levels, is needed. Here, we describe the probable mechanism by which benzene induces leukemia involving the targeting of critical genes and pathways through the induction of genetic, chromosomal or epigenetic abnormalities and genomic instability, in a hematopoietic stem cell (HSC); stromal cell dysregulation; apoptosis of HSCs and stromal cells and altered proliferation and differentiation of HSCs. These effects modulated by benzene-induced oxidative stress, aryl hydrocarbon receptor dysregulation and reduced immunosurveillance, lead to the generation of leukemic stem cells and subsequent clonal evolution to leukemia. A mode of action (MOA) approach to the risk assessment of benzene was recently proposed. This approach is limited, however, by the challenges of defining a simple stochastic MOA of benzene-induced leukemogenesis and of identifying relevant and quantifiable parameters associated with potential key events. An alternative risk assessment approach is the application of toxicogenomics and systems biology in human populations, animals and in vitro models of the HSC stem cell niche, exposed to a range of levels of benzene. These approaches will inform our understanding of the mechanisms of benzene toxicity and identify additional biomarkers of exposure, early effect and susceptibility useful for risk assessment. PMID:22166497

Relationship of risk assessment to placement characteristics in a statewide child welfare population.

PubMed

Huang, Cindy Y; Bory, Christopher T; Caron, Colleen; Tebes, Jacob Kraemer; Connell, Christian M

2014-11-01

Risk assessments allow child and youth services to identify children who are at risk for maltreatment (e.g., abuse, neglect) and help determine the restrictiveness of placements or need for services among youth entering a child welfare system. Despite the use of instruments by many agencies within the U.S. to determine the appropriate placements for youth, research has shown that placement decisions are often influenced by factors such as gender, age, and severity of social-emotional and behavior problems. This study examined ratings of risk across multiple domains using a structured assessment tool used by caseworkers in the Rhode Island child welfare system. The relationship between ratings of risk and placement restrictiveness was also examined. Risk levels varied across placement settings. Multivariate analyses revealed that lower caseworker ratings of parent risk and higher ratings of youth risk were associated with more restrictive placements for youth. Implications for the child welfare system are discussed.

Degradation of Organophosphorus and Pyrethroid Insecticides in Beverages: Implications for Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Radford, Samantha A; Panuwet, Parinya; Hunter, Ronald E; Barr, Dana Boyd; Ryan, P Barry

2018-02-02

Since urinary insecticide metabolites are commonly used as biomarkers of exposure, it is important that we quantify whether insecticides degrade in food and beverages in order to better perform risk assessment. This study was designed to quantify degradation of organophosphorus and pyrethroid insecticides in beverages. Purified water, white grape juice, orange juice, and red wine were fortified with 500 ng/mL diazinon, malathion, chlorpyrifos, permethrin, cyfluthrin, cypermethrin, and deltamethrin, and aliquots were extracted several times over a 15-day storage period at 2.5 °C. Overall, statistically significant loss of at least one insecticide was observed in each matrix, and at least five out of seven insecticides demonstrated a statistically significant loss in all matrices except orange juice. An investigation of an alternative mechanism of insecticide loss-adsorption onto the glass surface of the storage jars-was carried out, which indicated that this mechanism of loss is insignificant. Results of this work suggest that insecticides degrade in these beverages, and this degradation may lead to pre-existing insecticide degradates in the beverages, suggesting that caution should be exercised when using urinary insecticide metabolites to assess exposure and risk.

Degradation of Organophosphorus and Pyrethroid Insecticides in Beverages: Implications for Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Panuwet, Parinya; Hunter, Ronald E.; Barr, Dana Boyd; Ryan, P. Barry

2018-01-01

Since urinary insecticide metabolites are commonly used as biomarkers of exposure, it is important that we quantify whether insecticides degrade in food and beverages in order to better perform risk assessment. This study was designed to quantify degradation of organophosphorus and pyrethroid insecticides in beverages. Purified water, white grape juice, orange juice, and red wine were fortified with 500 ng/mL diazinon, malathion, chlorpyrifos, permethrin, cyfluthrin, cypermethrin, and deltamethrin, and aliquots were extracted several times over a 15-day storage period at 2.5 °C. Overall, statistically significant loss of at least one insecticide was observed in each matrix, and at least five out of seven insecticides demonstrated a statistically significant loss in all matrices except orange juice. An investigation of an alternative mechanism of insecticide loss—adsorption onto the glass surface of the storage jars—was carried out, which indicated that this mechanism of loss is insignificant. Results of this work suggest that insecticides degrade in these beverages, and this degradation may lead to pre-existing insecticide degradates in the beverages, suggesting that caution should be exercised when using urinary insecticide metabolites to assess exposure and risk. PMID:29393904

A clinically applicable non-invasive method to quantitatively assess the visco-hyperelastic properties of human heel pad, implications for assessing the risk of mechanical trauma.

PubMed

Behforootan, Sara; Chatzistergos, Panagiotis E; Chockalingam, Nachiappan; Naemi, Roozbeh

2017-04-01

Pathological conditions such as diabetic foot and plantar heel pain are associated with changes in the mechanical properties of plantar soft tissue. However, the causes and implications of these changes are not yet fully understood. This is mainly because accurate assessment of the mechanical properties of plantar soft tissue in the clinic remains extremely challenging. To develop a clinically viable non-invasive method of assessing the mechanical properties of the heel pad. Furthermore the effect of non-linear mechanical behaviour of the heel pad on its ability to uniformly distribute foot-ground contact loads in light of the effect of overloading is also investigated. An automated custom device for ultrasound indentation was developed along with custom algorithms for the automated subject-specific modeling of heel pad. Non-time-dependent and time-dependent material properties were inverse engineered from results from quasi-static indentation and stress relaxation test respectively. The validity of the calculated coefficients was assessed for five healthy participants. The implications of altered mechanical properties on the heel pad's ability to uniformly distribute plantar loading were also investigated in a parametric analysis. The subject-specific heel pad models with coefficients calculated based on quasi-static indentation and stress relaxation were able to accurately simulate dynamic indentation. Average error in the predicted forces for maximum deformation was only 6.6±4.0%. When the inverse engineered coefficients were used to simulate the first instance of heel strike the error in terms of peak plantar pressure was 27%. The parametric analysis indicated that the heel pad's ability to uniformly distribute plantar loads is influenced both by its overall deformability and by its stress-strain behaviour. When overall deformability stays constant, changes in stress/strain behaviour leading to a more "linear" mechanical behaviour appear to improve the heel

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances in cord blood of newborns in Shanghai, China: Implications for risk assessment.

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Chen, Qian; Shen, Lixiao; Zhao, Shasha; Pang, Weiyi; Zhang, Jun

2016-12-01

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are commonly used in industrial applications and consumer products, and their potential health impacts are of concern, especially for vulnerable population like fetuses. However, in utero exposure to PFASs and health implications are far from fully characterized in China. To fill in the gap, we analyzed 10 PFASs in cord plasma samples (N=687) collected in Shanghai between 2011 and 2012, one of the regions widely polluted with PFASs in China. A questionnaire survey on maternal and diet-related factors was conducted. Except for perfluoroheptanoic acid (PFHpA) and perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA), all other PFASs were detected in ˃90% of the samples. Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) was the most predominant PFAS (median value: 6.96ng/mL), followed by perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) (2.48ng/mL). PFOA and PFOS combined contributed to 80% of the total PFASs. The final multiple regression models showed that maternal factors including maternal age, body mass index, gestational age, economic status and educational level as well as consumption of fish and wheat were significantly related with concentrations of PFASs in cord blood. The risk assessment using the hazard quotients (HQs) approach on the basis of plasma PFAS levels indicated no potential concern for developmental toxicity in the local newborns. The results demonstrate the unique profiles of local prenatal exposure to PFASs, suggesting that PFOA has been the primary human exposure due to its widespread use and pollution. Special attention to high PFOA exposure and confirmation of potential determinants should be taken as a priority in the future plan for risk management and actions in this area. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of risks for high-speed rail grade crossings on the Empire Corridor : next generation high-speed rail program

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-08-01

The report describes a risk-based approach for assessing the implications of higher train speeds on highway-railroad grade crossing safety, and allocating limited resources to best reduce this risk. To predict accident frequency, an existing DOT mode...

Chemical Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study.

PubMed

Cox, L A; Ricci, P F

2005-04-01

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.

Microplastics in the environment: What can we learn from a decade of engineered nanoparticle fate and risk assessment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hüffer, T.; Praetorius, A.; Wagner, S.; von der Kammer, F.; Hofmann, T.

2016-12-01

The field of environmental fate and risk assessment is frequently dominated by "hot topics" of emerging contaminants; in recent years for example pharmaceuticals, nanomaterials or, most recently, microplastics. Since no emerging pollutant is entirely new, a careful assessment of existing knowledge on related substances can help us direct our research efforts and employ the limited resources in a more efficient way. Crucial questions on the environmental implications of microplastics, for example the need for analytical tools, adequate protocols to study their fate, or the effects of aging and a risk assessment based thereon remain largely unanswered. Over the last decade, the field of environmental implications of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) has been facing similar challenges. The goal of this contribution is to suggest a road-map to pursue the risk assessment of microplastics based on our experience in one decade in ENPs research. We highlight how to avoid potential dead-ends in microplastics research. We also illustrate that cross-linking other research fields, especially polymer chemistry and material sciences, may facilitate filling the urgent knowledge gaps.

Landslide risk assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

1983-01-01

Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

[Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: preliminary results].

PubMed

Palmieri, Luigi; Rielli, Rita; Demattè, Luca; Donfrancesco, Chiara; La Terza, Giampaolo; De Sanctis Caiola, Patrizia; Dima, Francesco; Lo Noce, Cinzia; Giannelli, Anna Maria; Brignoli, Ovidio; Cuffari, Alfredo; De Rosa, Marisa; Addis, Antonio; Laurendi, Giovanna; Giampaoli, Simona

2010-02-01

The Italian National Prevention plan includes 10-year cardiovascular risk (CR) assessment of the Italian general population aged 35-69 years using the CUORE Project risk score. A national training program for general practitioners (GPs) was launched by the Ministry of Health in 2003. GPs were encouraged to collect data on risk factors and risk assessment and to contribute to the CUORE Project Cardiovascular Risk Observatory (CRO). The aim of this analysis is to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of risk assessment in primary care. The cuore.exe software, free of charge for GPs and easily downloadable from the CUORE Project web site (www.cuore.iss.it), is the frame for the GP data collection. The CRO provides a platform to analyze data collected on risk assessment and risk factors, and compare results at regional and national level in order to support health policy makers in their decision process. From January 2007 to April 2009, 2858 GPs have downloaded the cuore.exe software; 102,113 risk assessments were sent to the CRO based on risk factors profile of 87,556 persons (3617 persons had more than 1 risk assessment). Mean level of CR was 3.1% in women and 8.4% in men; 30% of men and 65% of women were at low risk (CR < 3%), 9% of men and 0.4% of women were found at high risk (CR > or = 20%). Among those with at least 2 risk assessments, 8% shifted to a lower class of risk after 1 year. Mean level of systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased by about 1% in 1 year; total cholesterol more than 2%, and prevalence of smokers decreased by about 3% in the second risk assessment. These data demonstrate that risk assessment can be included as a first step of prevention in primary care. The CUORE Project individual score is expected to become an important tool for GPs to assess their patients' CR, to promote primary prevention, and to focus attention to healthy lifestyle adoption.

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

2009-12-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

Novel Transformations of Trenbolone Acetate Metabolites Suggest Incomplete Environmental Risk Assessment for Trenbolone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolodziej, E. P.; Jones, G.; Cwiertny, D. M.; Qu, S.

2013-12-01

account for these possibilities. The implications of this data suggest that improved environmental risk assessment should include a more complete characterization of transformation products and identification of possible non-target receptor interactions as part of exposure assessment process.

Comparing listeriosis risks in at-risk populations using a user-friendly quantitative microbial risk assessment tool and epidemiological data.

PubMed

Falk, L E; Fader, K A; Cui, D S; Totton, S C; Fazil, A M; Lammerding, A M; Smith, B A

2016-10-01

Although infection by the pathogenic bacterium Listeria monocytogenes is relatively rare, consequences can be severe, with a high case-fatality rate in vulnerable populations. A quantitative, probabilistic risk assessment tool was developed to compare estimates of the number of invasive listeriosis cases in vulnerable Canadian subpopulations given consumption of contaminated ready-to-eat delicatessen meats and hot dogs, under various user-defined scenarios. The model incorporates variability and uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulation. Processes considered within the model include cross-contamination, growth, risk factor prevalence, subpopulation susceptibilities, and thermal inactivation. Hypothetical contamination events were simulated. Results demonstrated varying risk depending on the consumer risk factors and implicated product (turkey delicatessen meat without growth inhibitors ranked highest for this scenario). The majority (80%) of listeriosis cases were predicted in at-risk subpopulations comprising only 20% of the total Canadian population, with the greatest number of predicted cases in the subpopulation with dialysis and/or liver disease. This tool can be used to simulate conditions and outcomes under different scenarios, such as a contamination event and/or outbreak, to inform public health interventions.

Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

2007-01-01

Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

Applying geologic sensitivity analysis to environmental risk management: The financial implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogers, D.T.

The financial risks associated with environmental contamination can be staggering and are often difficult to identify and accurately assess. Geologic sensitivity analysis is gaining recognition as a significant and useful tool that can empower the user with crucial information concerning environmental risk management and brownfield redevelopment. It is particularly useful when (1) evaluating the potential risks associated with redevelopment of historical industrial facilities (brownfields) and (2) planning for future development, especially in areas of rapid development because the number of potential contaminating sources often increases with an increase in economic development. An examination of the financial implications relating to geologicmore » sensitivity analysis in southeastern Michigan from numerous case studies indicate that the environmental cost of contamination may be 100 to 1,000 times greater at a geologically sensitive location compared to the least sensitive location. Geologic sensitivity analysis has demonstrated that near-surface geology may influence the environmental impact of a contaminated site to a greater extent than the amount and type of industrial development.« less

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

PubMed

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-12-01

Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Risk Assessment of Adolescents with Intellectual Disabilities Who Exhibit Sexual Behavior Problems or Sexual Offending Behavior.

PubMed

Blasingame, Gerry D

2018-03-30

Adolescents with intellectual disabilities are known to engage in various sexual behavior problems or sexual offending behaviors. This article provides a review of important aspects of risk assessment within the context of a broader, more comprehensive and holistic assessment of these individuals. Pertinent risk and sexual interest assessment tools are identified along with their strengths and limitations. Issues that are often unattended to are addressed, including consideration of the behavioral implications of the young person's diagnosis and level of cognitive functioning, need for sexual knowledge and sexual interest assessment, and issues related to making a mental health diagnosis. Recommendations for future research are also offered.

Microbial Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

2009-01-01

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu; Fink-Gremmels, J.

Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chainmore » (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.« less

Dermal bioavailability of benzo[a]pyrene on lampblack: implications for risk assessment.

PubMed

Stroo, Hans F; Roy, Timothy A; Liban, Cris B; Kreitinger, Joseph P

2005-06-01

Lampblack is the principal source of contamination in soils at manufactured gas plant (MGP) sites where oil was used as the feedstock. Risks and cleanup criteria at these sites are determined primarily by the total carcinogenic polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) content, particularly the concentration of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP). Dermal contact with soils at oil-gas MGP sites is a significant component of the overall risks. Seven samples were collected from oil-gas MGP sites and the steady-state dermal fluxes were measured over 96 h in vitro. The standard dermal bioassay technique (in which 3H-BaP is added to the soil matrix) was modified to allow direct measurement of the dermal absorption of the native BaP in the samples. The experimentally derived dermal absorption factors for BaP were 14 to 107 times lower than the default assumption of 15% over 24 h (55-fold lower on average). The dermal fluxes were correlated positively to the total BaP and total carbon concentrations. The measured dermal absorption factors were compared to the default risk-assessment calculations for all seven samples. The calculated excess cancer risk was reduced as a result of using the measured absorption factors by 97% on average (with reductions ranging from 93 to 99%). This work indicates the risks at oil-gas MGP sites currently are overestimated by one to two orders of magnitude, and provides a protocol for the testing and data analysis needed to generate site-specific cleanup levels.

Strategic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

PubMed

Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2007-08-01

The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

PubMed

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Environmental risk assessment of alkylphenols from offshore produced water on fish reproduction.

PubMed

Beyer, Jonny; Myhre, Lars Petter; Sundt, Rolf C; Meier, Sonnich; Tollefsen, Knut-Erik; Vabø, Rune; Klungsøyr, Jarle; Sanni, Steinar

2012-04-01

Concern has been raised over whether environmental release of alkylphenols (AP) in produced water (PW) discharges from the offshore oil industry could impose a risk to the reproduction of fish stocks in the North Sea. An environmental risk assessment (ERA) was performed to determine if environmental exposure to PW APs in North Sea fish populations is likely to be high enough to give effects on reproduction endpoints. The DREAM (Dose related Risk and Effect Assessment Model) software was used in the study and the inputs to the ERA model included PW discharge data, fate information of PW plumes, fish distribution information, as well as uptake and elimination information of PW APs. Toxicodynamic data from effect studies with Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) exposed to APs were used to establish a conservative environmental risk threshold value for AP concentration in seawater. By using the DREAM software to 1) identify the areas of highest potential risk and 2) integrate fish movement and uptake/elimination rates of APs for the chosen areas we found that the environmental exposure of fish to APs from PW is most likely too low to affect reproduction in wild populations of fish in the North Sea. The implications related to risk management of offshore PW and uncertainties in the risk assessment performed are discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

PubMed

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

1995-12-31

It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements inmore » health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada`s concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health.« less

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) for environmental development and transfer of antibiotic resistance.

PubMed

Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Amézquita, Alejandro; Backhaus, Thomas; Borriello, Peter; Brandt, Kristian K; Collignon, Peter; Coors, Anja; Finley, Rita; Gaze, William H; Heberer, Thomas; Lawrence, John R; Larsson, D G Joakim; McEwen, Scott A; Ryan, James J; Schönfeld, Jens; Silley, Peter; Snape, Jason R; Van den Eede, Christel; Topp, Edward

2013-09-01

Only recently has the environment been clearly implicated in the risk of antibiotic resistance to clinical outcome, but to date there have been few documented approaches to formally assess these risks. We examined possible approaches and sought to identify research needs to enable human health risk assessments (HHRA) that focus on the role of the environment in the failure of antibiotic treatment caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens. The authors participated in a workshop held 4-8 March 2012 in Québec, Canada, to define the scope and objectives of an environmental assessment of antibiotic-resistance risks to human health. We focused on key elements of environmental-resistance-development "hot spots," exposure assessment (unrelated to food), and dose response to characterize risks that may improve antibiotic-resistance management options. Various novel aspects to traditional risk assessments were identified to enable an assessment of environmental antibiotic resistance. These include a) accounting for an added selective pressure on the environmental resistome that, over time, allows for development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB); b) identifying and describing rates of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in the relevant environmental "hot spot" compartments; and c) modifying traditional dose-response approaches to address doses of ARB for various health outcomes and pathways. We propose that environmental aspects of antibiotic-resistance development be included in the processes of any HHRA addressing ARB. Because of limited available data, a multicriteria decision analysis approach would be a useful way to undertake an HHRA of environmental antibiotic resistance that informs risk managers.

Human health implications, risk assessment and remediation of As-contaminated water: A critical review.

PubMed

Shakoor, Muhammad Bilal; Nawaz, Rab; Hussain, Fida; Raza, Maimoona; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Oh, Sang-Eun; Ahmad, Sajjad

2017-12-01

Arsenic (As) is a naturally occurring metalloid and Class-A human carcinogen. Exposure to As via direct intake of As-contaminated water or ingestion of As-contaminated edible crops is considered a life threatening problem around the globe. Arsenic-laced drinking water has affected the lives of over 200 million people in 105 countries worldwide. Limited data are available on various health risk assessment models/frameworks used to predict carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health effects caused by As-contaminated water. Therefore, this discussion highlights the need for future research focusing on human health risk assessment of individual As species (both organic and inorganic) present in As-contaminated water. Various conventional and latest technologies for remediation of As-contaminated water are also reviewed along with a discussion of the fate of As-loaded waste and sludge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bioaccumulation of trace elements in Ruditapes philippinarum from China: public health risk assessment implications.

PubMed

Yang, Feng; Zhao, Liqiang; Yan, Xiwu; Wang, Yuan

2013-04-02

The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum is one of the most important commercial bivalve species consumed in China. Evaluated metal burden in bivalve molluscs can pose potential risks to public health as a result of their frequent consumption. In this study, concentrations of 10 trace elements (Cu, Zn, Mn, Se, Ni, Cd, Cr, Pb, Hg and As) were determined in samples of the bivalve Ruditapes philippinarum, collected from nine mariculture zones along the coast of China between November and December in 2010, in order to evaluate the status of elemental metal pollution in these areas. Also, a public health risk assessment was untaken to assess the potential risks associated with the consumption of clams. The ranges of concentrations found for Cu, Zn, Mn, Se, Ni, Cd, Cr, Pb, Hg and As in R. philippinarum were 12.1-38.0, 49.5-168.3, 42.0-68.0, 4.19-8.71, 4.76-14.32, 0.41-1.11, 0.94-4.74, 0.32-2.59, 0.03-0.23 and 0.46-11.95 mg·kg(-1) dry weight, respectively. Clear spatial variations were found for Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Hg and As, whereas Mn, Se, Ni, and Cd did not show significant spatial variation. Hotspots of trace element contamination in R. philippinarum can be found along the coast of China, from the north to the south, especially in the Bohai and Yellow Seas. Based on a 58.1 kg individual consuming 29 g of bivalve molluscs per day, the values of the estimated daily intake (EDI) of trace elements analyzed were significantly lower than the values of the accepted daily intake (ADI) established by Joint Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization Expert Committee on Food Additives (JFAO/WHO) and the guidelines of the reference does (RfD) established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Additionally, the risk of trace elements to humans through R. philippinarum consumption was also assessed. The calculated hazard quotients (HQ) of all trace elements were less than 1. Consequently, there was no obvious public risk from the intake of these

Bioaccumulation of Trace Elements in Ruditapes philippinarum from China: Public Health Risk Assessment Implications

PubMed Central

Yang, Feng; Zhao, Liqiang; Yan, Xiwu; Wang, Yuan

2013-01-01

The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum is one of the most important commercial bivalve species consumed in China. Evaluated metal burden in bivalve molluscs can pose potential risks to public health as a result of their frequent consumption. In this study, concentrations of 10 trace elements (Cu, Zn, Mn, Se, Ni, Cd, Cr, Pb, Hg and As) were determined in samples of the bivalve Ruditapes philippinarum, collected from nine mariculture zones along the coast of China between November and December in 2010, in order to evaluate the status of elemental metal pollution in these areas. Also, a public health risk assessment was untaken to assess the potential risks associated with the consumption of clams. The ranges of concentrations found for Cu, Zn, Mn, Se, Ni, Cd, Cr, Pb, Hg and As in R. philippinarum were 12.1–38.0, 49.5–168.3, 42.0–68.0, 4.19–8.71, 4.76–14.32, 0.41–1.11, 0.94–4.74, 0.32–2.59, 0.03–0.23 and 0.46–11.95 mg·kg−1 dry weight, respectively. Clear spatial variations were found for Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Hg and As, whereas Mn, Se, Ni, and Cd did not show significant spatial variation. Hotspots of trace element contamination in R. philippinarum can be found along the coast of China, from the north to the south, especially in the Bohai and Yellow Seas. Based on a 58.1 kg individual consuming 29 g of bivalve molluscs per day, the values of the estimated daily intake (EDI) of trace elements analyzed were significantly lower than the values of the accepted daily intake (ADI) established by Joint Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization Expert Committee on Food Additives (JFAO/WHO) and the guidelines of the reference does (RfD) established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Additionally, the risk of trace elements to humans through R. philippinarum consumption was also assessed. The calculated hazard quotients (HQ) of all trace elements were less than 1. Consequently, there was no obvious public risk from

Ergonomics Risk Assessment among support staff in Universiti Malaysia Pahang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jusoh, Faisal; Nafis Osman Zahid, Muhammed

2018-03-01

Awareness of ergonomic risk assessment among workers are getting intense in many industries nowadays. It is essential since most of the workers spend 7 to 8 hours of their time in the workplaces. Previous study shown that spending too much time with static posture in sitting at workplace leads to the problem of Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs). The implications are not only harmful to human body but also effect the productivity. Currently, there are no scientific study conducted to assess the conditions of workers in Universiti Malaysia Pahang (UMP). Therefore, the problem of MSDs could not be justified clearly and the top management did not acknowledge this issue. This study aims to present current scenario of ergonomic risk level at UMP by using structured model. It focuses on operational staff from faculties and Human Resources Department (HRD). Initially, three types of assessments are executed based on general working condition, Cornell Muscokeletal Discomfort Questionnaire (CMDQ) and Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA). Based on the findings, 90% of the respondents felt discomfort at workplace but prefer to rectify the issues by themselves. Almost 50% of them evaluated themselves in level 4-5 of discomfort level. The CMDQ result shown the discomfort area at faculties and HRD. The workplace at faculties and HRD had been assessed through ROSA and the overall result shown the risk level is medium level respectively. Therefore, further investigation is requires and improvement of workplace need to be proposed to establish good working condition.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

PubMed

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

PubMed Central

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Impact differences in ground reaction force and center of mass between the first and second landing phases of a drop vertical jump and their implications for injury risk assessment.

PubMed

Bates, Nathaniel A; Ford, Kevin R; Myer, Gregory D; Hewett, Timothy E

2013-04-26

The drop vertical jump (DVJ) task is commonly used to assess biomechanical performance measures that are associated with ACL injury risk in athletes. Previous investigations have solely assessed the first landing phase. We examined the first and second landings of a DVJ for differences in the magnitude of vertical ground reaction force (vGRF) and position of center of mass (CoM). A cohort of 239 adolescent female basketball athletes completed a series of DVJ tasks from an initial box height of 31 cm. Dual force platforms and a three dimensional motion capture system recorded force and positional data for each trial. There was no difference in peak vGRF between landings (p=0.445), but side-to-side differences increased from the first to second landing (p=0.007). Participants demonstrated a lower minimum CoM during stance in the first landing than the second landing (p<0.001). The results have important implications for the future assessment of ACL injury risk behaviors in adolescent female athletes. Greater side-to-side asymmetry in vGRF and higher CoM during impact indicate the second landing of a DVJ may exhibit greater perturbation and better represent in-game mechanics associated with ACL injury risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Production of Insecticide Degradates in Juices: Implications for Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Radford, Samantha A; Panuwet, Parinya; Hunter, Ronald E; Barr, Dana Boyd; Ryan, P Barry

2016-06-08

This study was designed to observe the production of degradates of two organophosphorus insecticides and one pyrethroid insecticide in beverages. Purified water, white grape juice, apple juice, and red grape juice were fortified with 500 ng/g malathion, chlorpyrifos, and permethrin, and aliquots were extracted for malathion dicarboxylic acid (MDA), 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), and 3-phenoxybenzoic acid (3-PBA) several times over a 15 day period of being stored in the dark at 2.5 °C. Overall, first-order kinetics were observed for production of MDA, and statistically significant production of TCPy was also observed. Statistically significant production of 3-phenoxybenzoic acid was not observed. Results indicate that insecticides degrade in food and beverages, and this degradation may lead to preexisting insecticide metabolites in the beverages. Therefore, it is suggested that caution should be exercised when using urinary insecticide metabolites to assess exposure and risk.

Variability in PAH-DNA adduct measurements in peripheral mononuclear cells: implications for quantitative cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Dickey, C; Santella, R M; Hattis, D; Tang, D; Hsu, Y; Cooper, T; Young, T L; Perera, F P

1997-10-01

Biomarkers such as DNA adducts have significant potential to improve quantitative risk assessment by characterizing individual differences in metabolism of genotoxins and DNA repair and accounting for some of the factors that could affect interindividual variation in cancer risk. Inherent uncertainty in laboratory measurements and within-person variability of DNA adduct levels over time are putatively unrelated to cancer risk and should be subtracted from observed variation to better estimate interindividual variability of response to carcinogen exposure. A total of 41 volunteers, both smokers and nonsmokers, were asked to provide a peripheral blood sample every 3 weeks for several months in order to specifically assess intraindividual variability of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-DNA adduct levels. The intraindividual variance in PAH-DNA adduct levels, together with measurement uncertainty (laboratory variability and unaccounted for differences in exposure), constituted roughly 30% of the overall variance. An estimated 70% of the total variance was contributed by interindividual variability and is probably representative of the true biologic variability of response to carcinogenic exposure in lymphocytes. The estimated interindividual variability in DNA damage after subtracting intraindividual variability and measurement uncertainty was 24-fold. Inter-individual variance was higher (52-fold) in persons who constitutively lack the Glutathione S-Transferase M1 (GSTM1) gene which is important in the detoxification pathway of PAH. Risk assessment models that do not consider the variability of susceptibility to DNA damage following carcinogen exposure may underestimate risks to the general population, especially for those people who are most vulnerable.

Early numeracy skills in preschool-aged children: a review of neurocognitive findings and implications for assessment and intervention.

PubMed

Raghubar, Kimberly P; Barnes, Marcia A

2017-02-01

The goals are to (1) provide a review of the typical and atypical development of early numeracy; (2) present what is known about the neurocognitive underpinnings of early numeracy; and (3) discuss the implications for early assessment and intervention. Studies on the development of typical and atypical early numeracy are reviewed with a particular focus on longitudinal findings including those from our work on spina bifida myelomeningocele. Implications of this research for assessment are presented. The paper ends with a discussion of early math interventions. Learning to count, identify numbers, and compare and manipulate quantities are key early numeracy skills. These are powerful predictors of school-age mathematical learning and performance. General neurocognitive abilities such as working memory and language, are also important for the development of early numeracy. It is recommended that early assessment for risk of mathematical learning difficulties include tests of both early number knowledge and key neurocognitive abilities. Math-specific interventions are most effective for improving early numeracy. There is currently little evidence that training of general cognitive functions transfers to mathematical learning. Understanding the development of early numeracy skills and their neurocognitive predictors offer important insights into early assessment and intervention for children at risk for or with mathematical learning difficulties.

Risk assessment and prioritization

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

The first step to take in order to prevent and minimize the dangers of disasters or attacks, is risk assessment, followed closely by prioritization. This article discusses key vulnerability and risk assessment that Volpe Center has conducted in suppo...

Evolution of cancer risk assessment and counseling related to psychological, financial and legal implications.

PubMed

Snyder, Carrie

2016-07-01

Cancer risk assessment, genetic counseling and genetic testing have experienced advances and changes over the past two decades due to improved technology, legal movements to protect those at an increased risk for cancer due to genetics, as well as advances in detection, prevention and treatment. This brief article will provide a summary of these advances over three eras of cancer genetics: pre-discovery of the more common high impact genes, namely BRCA1/BRCA2 and the mismatch repair genes associated with Lynch syndrome; the time during which the genes were being discovered; and current day.

FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

The Role of Risk and Risk Management in Experiential Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mobley, Michael

A monograph examines the role of risk and risk management in experiential education, particularly stress/challenge programming. Definitions of risk are presented. The importance of risk and stress in experiential education is emphasized. Implications of subjective versus objective risk assessment in adventure education are discussed, with…

The psychosocial effect of thoughts of personal mortality on cardiac risk assessment.

PubMed

Arndt, Jamie; Vess, Matthew; Cox, Cathy R; Goldenberg, Jamie L; Lagle, Stephen

2009-01-01

Prejudice by medical providers has been found to contribute to differential cardiac risk estimates. As such, empirical examinations of psychological factors associated with such biases are warranted. Considerable psychological research implicates concerns with personal mortality in motivating prejudicial biases. The authors sought to examine whether provoking thoughts of mortality among medical students would engender more cautious cardiac risk assessments for a hypothetical Christian than for a Muslim patient. During the spring of 2007, university medical students (N=47) were randomly assigned to conditions in a 2 (mortality salience) x 2 (patient religion) full factorial experimental design. In an online survey, participants answered questions about their mortality or about future uncertainty, inspected emergency room admittance forms for a Muslim or Christian patient complaining of chest pain, and subsequently estimated risk for coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and the combined risk of either of the two. A composite risk index was formed based on the responses (on a scale of 0-100) to each of the 3 cardiac risk questions. Reminders of mortality interacted with patient religion to influence risk assessments, F(1,41)=11.57, P=0.002, eta2 =.22. After being reminded of mortality, participants rendered more serious cardiac risk estimates for a Christian patient (F1,41 =8:66, P=0:01) and less serious estimates for a Muslim patient (F(1,41)=4.08, P=0.05). Reminders of personal mortality can lead to biased patient risk assessment as medical providers use their cultural identification to psychologically manage their awareness of death.

Merging developmental and criminal career perspectives: implications for risk assessment and risk prediction of violent/sexual recidivism in adult sexual aggressors of women.

PubMed

Cale, Jesse; Lussier, Patrick

2012-04-01

Currently, a majority of actuarial risk-assessment tools for sexual recidivism contain static risk factors that measure various aspects of the offender's prior criminal history in adulthood. The goal of the current study was to assess the utility of extending static risk factors, by using developmental and criminal career parameters of offending, in the actuarial assessment of risk of violent/sexual recidivism. The current study was based on a sample of 204 convicted sexual aggressors of women incarcerated in the province of Quebec, Canada between April 1994 and June 2000. Semistructured interviews were used to gather information on the offender's antisocial history prior to adulthood, and police records were used to collect data on the criminal career of these offenders in adulthood. For an average follow-up period of approximately 4 years, the violent/sexual recidivism rate for the sample was 23.7%. The results provided support for the inclusion of both developmental and criminal career indicators for the prediction of violent/sexual recidivism. More specifically, recidivists were characterized by an early onset antisocial trajectory and a pattern of escalation of antisocial behavior between childhood and adolescence. The findings suggest that risk assessors should look beyond broad adult criminal history data to include aspects of antisocial development to improve predictive accuracy.

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

PubMed

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aidala, Jim

1985-01-01

Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

PubMed Central

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Legal and ethical implications of health care provider insurance risk assumption.

PubMed

Cox, Thomas

2010-01-01

From bedside to boardroom, nurses deal with the consequences of health care provider insurance risk assumption. Professional caregiver insurance risk refers to insurance risks assumed through contracts with third parties, federal and state Medicare and Medicaid program mandates, and the diagnosis-related groups and Prospective Payment Systems. This article analyzes the financial, legal, and ethical implications of provider insurance risk assumption by focusing on the degree to which patient benefits are reduced.

GAR Global Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Construct measurement quality improves predictive accuracy in violence risk assessment: an illustration using the personality assessment inventory.

PubMed

Hendry, Melissa C; Douglas, Kevin S; Winter, Elizabeth A; Edens, John F

2013-01-01

Much of the risk assessment literature has focused on the predictive validity of risk assessment tools. However, these tools often comprise a list of risk factors that are themselves complex constructs, and focusing on the quality of measurement of individual risk factors may improve the predictive validity of the tools. The present study illustrates this concern using the Antisocial Features and Aggression scales of the Personality Assessment Inventory (Morey, 1991). In a sample of 1,545 prison inmates and offenders undergoing treatment for substance abuse (85% male), we evaluated (a) the factorial validity of the ANT and AGG scales, (b) the utility of original ANT and AGG scales and newly derived ANT and AGG scales for predicting antisocial outcomes (recidivism and institutional infractions), and (c) whether items with a stronger relationship to the underlying constructs (higher factor loadings) were in turn more strongly related to antisocial outcomes. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) indicated that ANT and AGG items were not structured optimally in these data in terms of correspondence to the subscale structure identified in the PAI manual. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted on a random split-half of the sample to derive optimized alternative factor structures, and cross-validated in the second split-half using CFA. Four-factor models emerged for both the ANT and AGG scales, and, as predicted, the size of item factor loadings was associated with the strength with which items were associated with institutional infractions and community recidivism. This suggests that the quality by which a construct is measured is associated with its predictive strength. Implications for risk assessment are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Models (BOSC CSS meeting)

EPA Science Inventory

In vitro assays are increasingly being used in risk assessments Uncertainty in assays leads to uncertainty in models used for risk assessments. This poster assesses uncertainty in the ER and AR models.

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Cancer.gov

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

2012-12-01

As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

Risk assessment for adult butterflies exposed to the mosquito control pesticide naled.

PubMed

Bargar, Timothy A

2012-04-01

A prospective risk assessment was conducted for adult butterflies potentially exposed to the mosquito control insecticide naled. Published acute mortality data, exposure data collected during field studies, and morphometric data (total surface area and fresh body weight) for adult butterflies were combined in a probabilistic estimate of the likelihood that adult butterfly exposure to naled following aerial applications would exceed levels associated with acute mortality. Adult butterfly exposure was estimated based on the product of (1) naled residues on samplers and (2) an exposure metric that normalized total surface area for adult butterflies to their fresh weight. The likelihood that the 10th percentile refined effect estimate for adult butterflies exposed to naled would be exceeded following aerial naled applications was 67 to 80%. The greatest risk would be for butterflies in the family Lycaenidae, and the lowest risk would be for those in the family Hesperidae, assuming equivalent sensitivity to naled. A range of potential guideline naled deposition levels is presented that, if not exceeded, would reduce the risk of adult butterfly mortality. The results for this risk assessment were compared with other risk estimates for butterflies, and the implications for adult butterflies in areas targeted by aerial naled applications are discussed. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Risk assessment for adult butterflies exposed to the mosquito control pesticide naled

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bargar, Timothy A.

2012-01-01

A prospective risk assessment was conducted for adult butterflies potentially exposed to the mosquito control insecticide naled. Published acute mortality data, exposure data collected during field studies, and morphometric data (total surface area and fresh body weight) for adult butterflies were combined in a probabilistic estimate of the likelihood that adult butterfly exposure to naled following aerial applications would exceed levels associated with acute mortality. Adult butterfly exposure was estimated based on the product of (1) naled residues on samplers and (2) an exposure metric that normalized total surface area for adult butterflies to their fresh weight. The likelihood that the 10th percentile refined effect estimate for adult butterflies exposed to naled would be exceeded following aerial naled applications was 67 to 80%. The greatest risk would be for butterflies in the family Lycaenidae, and the lowest risk would be for those in the family Hesperidae, assuming equivalent sensitivity to naled. A range of potential guideline naled deposition levels is presented that, if not exceeded, would reduce the risk of adult butterfly mortality. The results for this risk assessment were compared with other risk estimates for butterflies, and the implications for adult butterflies in areas targeted by aerial naled applications are discussed.

Advances in risk assessment and communication.

PubMed

Goldstein, Bernard D

2005-01-01

Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

Causal modelling applied to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge.

PubMed

Paul, Warren L; Rokahr, Pat A; Webb, Jeff M; Rees, Gavin N; Clune, Tim S

2016-03-01

Bayesian networks (BNs), or causal Bayesian networks, have become quite popular in ecological risk assessment and natural resource management because of their utility as a communication and decision-support tool. Since their development in the field of artificial intelligence in the 1980s, however, Bayesian networks have evolved and merged with structural equation modelling (SEM). Unlike BNs, which are constrained to encode causal knowledge in conditional probability tables, SEMs encode this knowledge in structural equations, which is thought to be a more natural language for expressing causal information. This merger has clarified the causal content of SEMs and generalised the method such that it can now be performed using standard statistical techniques. As it was with BNs, the utility of this new generation of SEM in ecological risk assessment will need to be demonstrated with examples to foster an understanding and acceptance of the method. Here, we applied SEM to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge to a stream, with a particular focus on the process of translating a causal diagram (conceptual model) into a statistical model which might then be used in the decision-making and evaluation stages of the risk assessment. The process of building and testing a spatial causal model is demonstrated using data from a spatial sampling design, and the implications of the resulting model are discussed in terms of the risk assessment. It is argued that a spatiotemporal causal model would have greater external validity than the spatial model, enabling broader generalisations to be made regarding the impact of a discharge, and greater value as a tool for evaluating the effects of potential treatment plant upgrades. Suggestions are made on how the causal model could be augmented to include temporal as well as spatial information, including suggestions for appropriate statistical models and analyses.

Configural approaches to temperament assessment: implications for predicting risk of unintentional injury in children.

PubMed

Berry, Jack W; Schwebel, David C

2009-10-01

This study used two configural approaches to understand how temperament factors (surgency/extraversion, negative affect, and effortful control) might predict child injury risk. In the first approach, clustering procedures were applied to trait dimensions to identify discrete personality prototypes. In the second approach, two- and three-way trait interactions were considered dimensionally in regression models predicting injury outcomes. Injury risk was assessed through four measures: lifetime prevalence of injuries requiring professional medical attention, scores on the Injury Behavior Checklist, and frequency and severity of injuries reported in a 2-week injury diary. In the prototype analysis, three temperament clusters were obtained, which resembled resilient, overcontrolled, and undercontrolled types found in previous research. Undercontrolled children had greater risk of injury than children in the other groups. In the dimensional interaction analyses, an interaction between surgency/extraversion and negative affect tended to predict injury, especially when children lacked capacity for effortful control.

Schedule Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Greg

2003-01-01

Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

Model Development for Risk Assessment of Driving on Freeway under Rainy Weather Conditions

PubMed Central

Cai, Xiaonan; Wang, Chen; Chen, Shengdi; Lu, Jian

2016-01-01

Rainy weather conditions could result in significantly negative impacts on driving on freeways. However, due to lack of enough historical data and monitoring facilities, many regions are not able to establish reliable risk assessment models to identify such impacts. Given the situation, this paper provides an alternative solution where the procedure of risk assessment is developed based on drivers’ subjective questionnaire and its performance is validated by using actual crash data. First, an ordered logit model was developed, based on questionnaire data collected from Freeway G15 in China, to estimate the relationship between drivers’ perceived risk and factors, including vehicle type, rain intensity, traffic volume, and location. Then, weighted driving risk for different conditions was obtained by the model, and further divided into four levels of early warning (specified by colors) using a rank order cluster analysis. After that, a risk matrix was established to determine which warning color should be disseminated to drivers, given a specific condition. Finally, to validate the proposed procedure, actual crash data from Freeway G15 were compared with the safety prediction based on the risk matrix. The results show that the risk matrix obtained in the study is able to predict driving risk consistent with actual safety implications, under rainy weather conditions. PMID:26894434

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders: Validity and Dimensional Structure of the Stable-2007.

PubMed

Etzler, Sonja; Eher, Reinhard; Rettenberger, Martin

2018-02-01

In this study, the predictive and incremental validity of the Stable-2007 beyond the Static-99 was evaluated in an updated sample of N = 638 adult male sexual offenders followed-up for an average of M = 8.2 years. Data were collected at the Federal Evaluation Center for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in Austria within a prospective-longitudinal research design. Scores and risk categories of the Static-99 (AUC = .721; p < .001) and of the Stable-2007 (AUC = .623, p = .005) were found to be significantly related to sexual recidivism. The Stable-2007 risk categories contributed incrementally to the prediction of sexual recidivism beyond the Static-99. Analyzing the dimensional structure of the Stable-2007 yielded three factors, named Antisociality, Sexual Deviance, and Hypersexuality. Antisociality and Sexual Deviance were significant predictors for sexual recidivism. Sexual Deviance was negatively associated with non-sexual violent recidivism. Comparisons with latent dimensions of other risk assessment instruments are made and implications for applied risk assessment are discussed.

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

MedlinePlus

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Rubella Deaf-Blind Child: Implications of Psychological Assessment. Proceedings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouin, Carole

Presented are proceedings of a conference involving authorities in testing and evaluating the blind, deaf, and deaf-blind. In a paper titled "Psychological Implications of Assessing the Deaf", C. Goetzinger discusses references used in audiology, anatomy and physiology of the ear, degrees of hearing impairment, and implications of the various…

Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

2013-01-01

The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

Public Risk Assessment Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendeck, Gavin

2010-01-01

The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

Applicability and feasibility of systematic review for performing evidence-based risk assessment in food and feed safety.

PubMed

Aiassa, E; Higgins, J P T; Frampton, G K; Greiner, M; Afonso, A; Amzal, B; Deeks, J; Dorne, J-L; Glanville, J; Lövei, G L; Nienstedt, K; O'connor, A M; Pullin, A S; Rajić, A; Verloo, D

2015-01-01

Food and feed safety risk assessment uses multi-parameter models to evaluate the likelihood of adverse events associated with exposure to hazards in human health, plant health, animal health, animal welfare, and the environment. Systematic review and meta-analysis are established methods for answering questions in health care, and can be implemented to minimize biases in food and feed safety risk assessment. However, no methodological frameworks exist for refining risk assessment multi-parameter models into questions suitable for systematic review, and use of meta-analysis to estimate all parameters required by a risk model may not be always feasible. This paper describes novel approaches for determining question suitability and for prioritizing questions for systematic review in this area. Risk assessment questions that aim to estimate a parameter are likely to be suitable for systematic review. Such questions can be structured by their "key elements" [e.g., for intervention questions, the population(s), intervention(s), comparator(s), and outcome(s)]. Prioritization of questions to be addressed by systematic review relies on the likely impact and related uncertainty of individual parameters in the risk model. This approach to planning and prioritizing systematic review seems to have useful implications for producing evidence-based food and feed safety risk assessment.

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

MedlinePlus

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) for Environmental Development and Transfer of Antibiotic Resistance

PubMed Central

Amézquita, Alejandro; Backhaus, Thomas; Borriello, Peter; Brandt, Kristian K.; Collignon, Peter; Coors, Anja; Finley, Rita; Gaze, William H.; Heberer, Thomas; Lawrence, John R.; Larsson, D.G. Joakim; McEwen, Scott A.; Ryan, James J.; Schönfeld, Jens; Silley, Peter; Snape, Jason R.; Van den Eede, Christel; Topp, Edward

2013-01-01

Background: Only recently has the environment been clearly implicated in the risk of antibiotic resistance to clinical outcome, but to date there have been few documented approaches to formally assess these risks. Objective: We examined possible approaches and sought to identify research needs to enable human health risk assessments (HHRA) that focus on the role of the environment in the failure of antibiotic treatment caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Methods: The authors participated in a workshop held 4–8 March 2012 in Québec, Canada, to define the scope and objectives of an environmental assessment of antibiotic-resistance risks to human health. We focused on key elements of environmental-resistance-development “hot spots,” exposure assessment (unrelated to food), and dose response to characterize risks that may improve antibiotic-resistance management options. Discussion: Various novel aspects to traditional risk assessments were identified to enable an assessment of environmental antibiotic resistance. These include a) accounting for an added selective pressure on the environmental resistome that, over time, allows for development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB); b) identifying and describing rates of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in the relevant environmental “hot spot” compartments; and c) modifying traditional dose–response approaches to address doses of ARB for various health outcomes and pathways. Conclusions: We propose that environmental aspects of antibiotic-resistance development be included in the processes of any HHRA addressing ARB. Because of limited available data, a multicriteria decision analysis approach would be a useful way to undertake an HHRA of environmental antibiotic resistance that informs risk managers. Citation: Ashbolt NJ, Amézquita A, Backhaus T, Borriello P, Brandt KK, Collignon P, Coors A, Finley R, Gaze WH, Heberer T, Lawrence JR, Larsson DG, McEwen SA, Ryan JJ, Schönfeld J, Silley P, Snape JR

ACTIVITIES TO DEVELOP AN INTERIM GUIDANCE FOR MICROARRAY-BASED ASSAYS FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS AT EPA

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract for presentation. Advances in genomics will have significant implications for risk assessment policies and regulatory decision making. In 2002, EPA issued its lnterim Policy on Genomics which stated that such data may be considered in the decision making process, but tha...

AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

EPA Science Inventory

In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Bos, Peter M. J.; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F.; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C. E.; Oomen, Agnes G.

2015-01-01

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Intelligence involves risk-awareness and intellectual disability involves risk-unawareness: implications of a theory of common sense.

PubMed

Greenspan, Stephen; Switzky, Harvey N; Woods, George W

2011-12-01

Survival in the everyday world (in both social and practical functioning) depends on one's ability to recognise and avoid going down the worst possible path, especially when doing so places one at risk of death, injury, or social disaster. Most people possess "common sense" (the ability to recognise obvious risk) but some people lack that ability and thus are at high risk of engaging in "foolish" (i.e., risk-unaware) action. People who have a cognitive impairment are much less able to recognise and avoid risk, and this is what causes them to be seen as needing protection and support. In this paper, we argue that the answer to the question "What is intellectual disability (ID)?" is more likely to come from the question "What is unintelligent behavior?" than "What is intelligence?" The answer which comes from such a question is that "ID is a common sense deficit disorder characterised by unawareness of obvious social and practical risk." Several implications of this answer are explored for the field of intellectual disability. These implications are explored primarily for adults who may have ID, given that the inspiration for this paper came from the way existing ID definitions are applied or misapplied in the US adult criminal justice system.

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.

With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Assessing risk from a stakeholder perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, L. P.

2003-01-01

Planetary exploration missions are subject to a vast array of interpretations of 'success' based on the concerns of multiple stakeholder groups. While project risk management generally focuses on issues of cost/schedule constraints or reliability issues, a broader interpretation of 'risk' as it applies to stakeholders such as sponsors (e.g., NASA), the public at large, the scientific community, the home organization, and the project team itself can provide important insights into the full spectrum of risk that needs to be managed. This paper presents a stakeholder view of risk which is divided into failure, not-a-failure, success, and stunning-success zones. Using the Mars Pathfinder mission as an example, an alternative interpretation of the risks to that mission is presented from the view of key stakeholders. The implications of the stakeholder perspective to project risk management are addressed.

Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach (CARMINA).

PubMed

Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Tardivo, Stefano; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Moretti, Francesca; Poletti, Piera; Fiore, Alberto; Monturano, Massimo; Mura, Ida; Privitera, Gaetano; Brusaferro, Silvio

2016-08-08

Purpose - The European Union recommendations for patient safety calls for shared clinical risk management (CRM) safety standards able to guide organizations in CRM implementation. The purpose of this paper is to develop a self-evaluation tool to measure healthcare organization performance on CRM and guide improvements over time. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-step approach was implemented including: a systematic literature review; consensus meetings with an expert panel from eight Italian leader organizations to get to an agreement on the first version; field testing to test instrument feasibility and flexibility; Delphi strategy with a second expert panel for content validation and balanced scoring system development. Findings - The self-assessment tool - Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach includes seven areas (governance, communication, knowledge and skills, safe environment, care processes, adverse event management, learning from experience) and 52 standards. Each standard is evaluated according to four performance levels: minimum; monitoring; outcomes; and improvement actions, which resulted in a feasible, flexible and valid instrument to be used throughout different organizations. Practical implications - This tool allows practitioners to assess their CRM activities compared to minimum levels, monitor performance, benchmarking with other institutions and spreading results to different stakeholders. Originality/value - The multi-step approach allowed us to identify core minimum CRM levels in a field where no consensus has been reached. Most standards may be easily adopted in other countries.

Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

Availability and quality of coronary heart disease family history in primary care medical records: implications for cardiovascular risk assessment.

PubMed

Dhiman, Paula; Kai, Joe; Horsfall, Laura; Walters, Kate; Qureshi, Nadeem

2014-01-01

The potential to use data on family history of premature disease to assess disease risk is increasingly recognised, particularly in scoring risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). However the quality of family health information in primary care records is unclear. To assess the availability and quality of family history of CHD documented in electronic primary care records. Cross-sectional study. 537 UK family practices contributing to The Health Improvement Network database. Data were obtained from patients aged 20 years or more, registered with their current practice between 1(st) January 1998 and 31(st) December 2008, for at least one year. The availability and quality of recorded CHD family history was assessed using multilevel logistic and ordinal logistic regression respectively. In a cross-section of 1,504,535 patients, 19% had a positive or negative family history of CHD recorded. Multilevel logistic regression showed patients aged 50-59 had higher odds of having their family history recorded compared to those aged 20-29 (OR:1.23 (1.21 to 1.25)), however most deprived patients had lower odds compared to those least deprived (OR: 0.86 (0.85 to 0.88)). Of the 140,058 patients with a positive family history recorded (9% of total cohort), age of onset was available in 45%; with data specifying both age of onset and relative affected available in only 11% of records. Multilevel ordinal logistic regression confirmed no statistical association between the quality of family history recording and age, gender, deprivation and year of registration. Family history of CHD is documented in a small proportion of primary care records; and where positive family history is documented the details are insufficient to assess familial risk or populate cardiovascular risk assessment tools. Data capture needs to be improved particularly for more disadvantaged patients who may be most likely to benefit from CHD risk assessment.

Li-Fraumeni syndrome: cancer risk assessment and clinical management.

PubMed

McBride, Kate A; Ballinger, Mandy L; Killick, Emma; Kirk, Judy; Tattersall, Martin H N; Eeles, Rosalind A; Thomas, David M; Mitchell, Gillian

2014-05-01

Carriers of germline mutations in the TP53 gene, encoding the cell-cycle regulator and tumour suppressor p53, have a markedly increased risk of cancer-related morbidity and mortality during both childhood and adulthood, and thus require appropriate and effective cancer risk management. However, the predisposition of such patients to multiorgan tumorigenesis presents a specific challenge for cancer risk management programmes. Herein, we review the clinical implications of germline mutations in TP53 and the evidence for cancer screening and prevention strategies in individuals carrying such mutations, as well as examining the potential psychosocial implications of lifelong management for a ubiquitous cancer risk. In addition, we propose an evidence-based framework for the clinical management of TP53 mutation carriers and provide a platform for addressing the management of other cancer predisposition syndromes that can affect multiple organs.

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

PubMed

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

Assessing hazard risk, cost of adaptation and traditional land use activities in the context of permafrost thaw in communities in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benkert, B.; Perrin, A.; Calmels, F.

2015-12-01

Together with its partners, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE, part of the Yukon Research Centre at Yukon College) has been mapping permafrost-related hazard risk in northern communities since 2010. By integrating geoscience and climate project data, we have developed a series of community-scale hazard risk maps. The maps depict hazard risk in stoplight colours for easy interpretation, and support community-based, future-focused adaptation planning. Communities, First Nations, consultants and local regulatory agencies have used the hazard risk maps to site small-scale infrastructure projects, guide land planning processes, and assess suitability of land development applications. However, we know that assessing risk is only one step in integrating the implications of permafrost degradation in societal responses to environmental change. To build on our permafrost hazard risk maps, we are integrating economic principles and traditional land use elements. To assess economic implications of adaptation to permafrost change, we are working with geotechnical engineers to identify adaptation options (e.g., modified building techniques, permafrost thaw mitigation approaches) that suit the risks captured by our existing hazard risk maps. We layer this with an economic analysis of the costs associated with identified adaptation options, providing end-users with a more comprehensive basis upon which to make decisions related to infrastructure. NCE researchers have also integrated traditional land use activities in assessments of permafrost thaw risk, in a project led by Jean Marie River First Nation in the Northwest Territories. Here, the implications of permafrost degradation on food security and land use priorities were assessed by layering key game and gathering areas on permafrost thaw vulnerability maps. Results indicated that close to one quarter of big and small game habitats, and close to twenty percent of key furbearer and gathering areas within the First Nation

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-12-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-02-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

2017-04-01

Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

PubMed

Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

2008-11-15

The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

PubMed Central

Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

2011-01-01

Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Dust-Metal Sources in an Urbanized Arid Zone: Implications for Health-Risk Assessments.

PubMed

García-Rico, Leticia; Meza-Figueroa, Diana; Gandolfi, A Jay; Del Río-Salas, Rafael; Romero, Francisco M; Meza-Montenegro, Maria Mercedes

2016-04-01

The available information concerning metal pollution in different dust sources and the health effects in children remains limited in Mexico. This study focuses on Hermosillo, which is an urbanized area located in the Sonoran Desert in which soil resuspension and dust emission processes are common. The metal content of arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), and lead (Pb) were determined in three dust sources (playgrounds, roofs, and roads), each representing different exposure media (EM) for these elements. The metal levels in dust were found in the order of Mn > Cr > Pb > As with the highest metal content found in road dust. Despite the similar average metal distributions, principal component analysis shows a clear separation of the three EM with playground dust related to Cr and Mn and road dust to As and Pb. However, the geoaccumulation index results indicate that dust samples are uncontaminated to moderately polluted, except for Pb in road dust, which is considerably high. In addition, the enrichment factor suggests an anthropogenic origin for all of the studied metals except for Mn. In this context, the hazard index (HI) for noncarcinogenic risk is >1 in this population and thus represents a potential health risk. The spatial distribution for each metal on EM and the HI related to the marginality index could represent a more accurate decision-making tool in risk assessment studies.

Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide.

PubMed

Belfrage, Henrik; Strand, Susanne; Storey, Jennifer E; Gibas, Andrea L; Kropp, P Randall; Hart, Stephen D

2012-02-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

PubMed

Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

2010-11-01

US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (<10% risk, 10-20% risk, or >20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (<10% risk of a major coronary event in the next 10 years), 22% as having "moderately high" (10-20%) risk, and 7% as having "high" (>20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions

Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

2012-01-01

The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

Denial of risk: The effects of positive impression management on risk assessments for psychopathic and nonpsychopathic offenders.

PubMed

Gillard, Nathan D; Rogers, Richard

2015-01-01

Risk assessments for offenders often combine past records with current clinical findings from observations, interviews, and test data. Conclusions based on these risk assessments are highly consequential, sometimes resulting in increased criminal sentences or prolonged hospitalization. Therefore, many offenders are motivated to intentionally minimize risk factors and their negative consequences. Positive impression management (PIM) is especially likely to occur in offenders with high psychopathic traits because goal-directed deception is reflected in several of psychopathy's core traits of the disorder, such as manipulativeness, glibness, and superficial charm. However, this connection appears to be based on the conceptual understanding of psychopathy, and has rarely been examined empirically for either frequency of or success at deception. The current study examined the ability of a jail sample to intentionally minimize risk factors and related criminal attributes using a repeated measures, simulation design. In general, offenders were able to effectively use PIM to lower scores on the HCR-20 and the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ), while the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS), as a measure of cognitive styles, was more resistant to such minimization. Psychopathic traits, especially high Factor 1 scores (i.e., affective/interpersonal), were associated with greater PIM. Important differences in the willingness and ability to use deception were found based on the (a) mode of administration (i.e., interview vs. self-report) and (b) level of psychopathy as measured by the Psychopathy Checklist - Revised (PCL-R). The important implications of this research are discussed for risk assessment procedures regarding likely areas of deception and its detection. The current research also informs the growing literature on the connection between psychopathic traits and deception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Panel 2: anticipatory risk assessment: identifying, assessing, and mitigating exposure risks before they occur.

PubMed

Guidotti, Tee L; Pacha, Laura

2011-07-01

Health threats place the military mission and deployed service members at risk. A commander's focus is on preventing acute health risks, such as diarrhea, because these quickly compromise the mission. However, in recent conflicts chronic and long-term illness risks have emerged as concerns. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff mandates require documentation of exposures and environmental conditions to reconstruct exposures and evaluate future health risks. Current processes for identifying and assessing hazards, including identification and assessment before deployment and in time to take action to prevent or reduce exposures, when followed, are generally adequate for known hazards. Identifying and addressing novel, unexpected risks remain challenges. Armed conflicts are associated with rapidly changing conditions, making ongoing hazard identification and assessment difficult. Therefore, surveillance of the environment for hazards and surveillance of personnel for morbidity must be practiced at all times. Communication of risk information to decision makers is critical but problematic. Preventive Medicine (PM) personnel should take responsibility for communicating this information to non-PM military medical people and to military commanders. Communication of risks identified and lessons learned between PM personnel of different military units is extremely important when one military unit replaces another in a deployed environment.

Communicating Conservation Status: How Different Statistical Assessment Criteria Affect Perceptions of Extinction Risk.

PubMed

Song, Hwanseok; Schuldt, Jonathon P

2017-09-01

Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species' extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A-E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e.g., Critically Endangered, Vulnerable), as well as the role of key individual differences in these effects (e.g., rational and experiential thinking styles, environmental concern). Despite their normative equivalence within the IUCN classification system, results revealed divergent effects of specific assessment criteria: on average, describing extinction risk in terms of proportional population decline over time (Criterion A) and number of remaining individuals (Criterion D) evoked the highest level of perceived risk, whereas the single-event probability of a species becoming extinct (Criterion E) engendered the least perceived risk. Furthermore, participants scoring high in rationality (analytic thinking) were less prone to exhibit these biases compared to those low in rationality. Our findings suggest that despite their equivalence in the eyes of scientific experts, IUCN criteria are indeed capable of engendering different levels of risk perception among lay audiences, effects that carry direct and important implications for those tasked with communicating about conservation status to diverse publics. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

2005-01-01

A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Risk assessment in mental health care: values and costs.

PubMed

Szmukler, George; Rose, Nikolas

2013-01-01

Risk assessment has assumed increasing salience in mental health care in a number of countries. The frequency of serious violent incidents perpetrated by people with a mental illness is an insufficient explanation. Understandings of mental illness and of the role of those charged with their care (or control) play a key role. "Moral outrage", associated with an implied culpability when certain types of tragedy occur, is very significant. This leads to tensions concerning the role of post-incident inquiries, and contributes to a flawed conception of what such inquiries can offer. At the same time, understanding of probability and prediction is generally very poor, among both professionals and the public. Unrealistic expectations for risk assessment and management in general psychiatric practice carry a variety of significant costs, taking a number forms, to those with a mental illness, to mental health professionals and to services. Especially important are changes in professional practice and accountabilities that are significantly divorced from traditional practice, implications for trust in patient-clinician relationships and the organisations in which mental health professionals work, and practices that often breach the ethical principle of justice (or fairness) and heighten discrimination against people with mental illness. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

PubMed

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges.

PubMed

MacPhail, Robert C; Grulke, Eric A; Yokel, Robert A

2013-01-01

Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug, or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of practice. The precision with which risk can be estimated is inevitably constrained, however, by uncertainties arising from the lack of pertinent data. Developing accurate risk assessments for nanoparticles and nanoparticle-containing products may present further challenges because of the unique properties of the particles, uncertainties about their composition and the populations exposed to them, and how these may change throughout the particle's life cycle. This review introduces the evolving practice of risk assessment followed by some of the uncertainties that need to be addressed to improve our understanding of nanoparticle risks. Given the clarion call for life-cycle assessments of nanoparticles, an unprecedented degree of national and international coordination between scientific organizations, regulatory agencies, and stakeholders will be required to achieve this goal. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C.; Renn, Ortwin

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the socialmore » impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.« less

The new "intermediate risk" group: a comparative analysis of the new 2013 ACC/AHA risk assessment guidelines versus prior guidelines in men.

PubMed

Blaha, Michael J; Dardari, Zeina A; Blumenthal, Roger S; Martin, Seth S; Nasir, Khurram; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H

2014-11-01

The 2013 ACC/AHA Report on the Assessment of Cardiovascular (CVD) Risk redefined "intermediate risk". We sought to critically compare the intermediate risk groups identified by prior guidelines and the new ACC/AHA guidelines. We analyzed data from 30,005 adult men free of known CVD from a large, multi-ethnic study of middle-aged adults. The Framingham Risk Score was calculated using published equations, and CVD risk was calculated using the new ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Estimator. We first compared the size and characteristics of the intermediate risk group identified by the old (ATP III, 10-20% 10-year CHD risk) and new guidelines (5-7.4% 10-year CVD risk). We then defined time-to-high-risk as the length of time an individual patient resides in the intermediate risk group before progressing to high risk status based on advancing age alone. The mean age of the study population was 53 ± 13 years, and 24% were African-American. Patients identified as intermediate risk by the new ACC/AHA Guidelines were younger and more likely to be African-American and have lower risk factor burden (all p < 0.05). The new intermediate risk group was just 37% the size of the traditional ATP III intermediate risk group, while the new high risk group was 103% larger. Under the new guidelines, men remain intermediate risk for an average of just 3 years, compared to 8 years under the prior guidelines (63% shorter time-to-high-risk, p < 0.05), before progressing to high risk based on advancing age alone. The new 2013 ACC/AHA risk assessment guidelines produce a markedly smaller, lower absolute risk, and more temporary "intermediate risk" group. These findings reshape the modern understanding of "intermediate risk", and have distinct implications for risk assessment, clinical decision making, and pharmacotherapy in primary prevention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Treesearch

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Rapid changes in small fish mercury concentrations in estuarine wetlands: Implications for wildlife risk and monitoring programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Ackerman, Joshua T.

2009-01-01

Small fish are commonly used to assess mercury (Hg) risk to wildlife and monitor Hg in wetlands. However, limited research has evaluated short-term Hg variability in small fish, which can have important implications for monitoring programs and risk assessment. We conducted a time-series study of Hg concentrations in two small fish species representing benthic (longjaw mudsuckers [Gillichthys mirabilis]) and pelagic (threespine sticklebacks [Gasterosteus aculeatus]) food-webs within three wetland habitats in San Francisco Bay Estuary. We simultaneously monitored prey deliveries, nest initiation, and chick hatching dates of breeding Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri), the most abundant nesting piscivore in the region. Mudsuckers and sticklebacks were the predominant prey fish, comprising 36% and 25% of tern diet, and Hg concentrations averaged (geometric mean ?? SE, ??g/g dw) 0.44 ?? 0.01 and 0.68 ?? 0.03, respectively. Fish Hg concentrations varied substantially over time following a quadratic form in both species, increasing 40% between March and May then decreasing 40% between May and July. Importantly, Forster's terns initiated 68% of nests and 31% of chicks hatched during the period of peak Hg concentrations in prey fish. These results illustrate the importance of short-term temporal variation in small fish Hg concentrations for both Hg monitoring programs and assessing wildlife risk.

National-scale Assessment of Air Toxics Risks

EPA Science Inventory

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of DCM, there are human health concerns for both cancer and non-cancer effects. This DCM assessment of paint stripping uses will focus only on inhalation exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of DCM will be discussed in the assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk.

PubMed

Eyles, John; Heddle, Nancy; Webert, Kathryn; Arnold, Emmy; McCurdy, Bronwen

2011-08-24

Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Methods Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. Results While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Conclusions Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches. PMID:21864330

The impact of using visual images of the body within a personalized health risk assessment: an experimental study.

PubMed

Hollands, Gareth J; Marteau, Theresa M

2013-05-01

To examine the motivational impact of the addition of a visual image to a personalized health risk assessment and the underlying cognitive and emotional mechanisms. An online experimental study in which participants (n = 901; mean age = 27.2 years; 61.5% female) received an assessment and information focusing on the health implications of internal body fat and highlighting the protective benefits of physical activity. Participants were randomized to receive this in either (a) solely text form (control arm) or (b) text plus a visual image of predicted internal body fat (image arm). Participants received information representing one of three levels of health threat, determined by how physically active they were: high, moderate or benign. Main outcome measures were physical activity intentions (assessed pre- and post-intervention), worry, coherence and believability of the information. Intentions to undertake recommended levels of physical activity were significantly higher in the image arm, but only amongst those participants who received a high-threat communication. Believability of the results received was greater in the image arm and mediated the intervention effect on intentions. The addition of a visual image to a risk assessment led to small but significant increases in intentions to undertake recommended levels of physical activity in those at increased health risk. Limitations of the study and implications for future research are discussed. What is already known on this subject? Health risk information that is personalized to the individual may more strongly motivate risk-reducing behaviour change. Little prior research attention has been paid specifically to the motivational impact of personalized visual images and underlying mechanisms. What does this study add? In an experimental design, it is shown that receipt of visual images increases intentions to engage in risk-reducing behaviour, although only when a significant level of threat is presented. The

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

PubMed

Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

2015-03-01

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

Advantages of new cardiovascular risk-assessment strategies in high-risk patients with hypertension.

PubMed

Ruilope, Luis M; Segura, Julian

2005-10-01

Accurate assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with hypertension is important when planning appropriate treatment of modifiable risk factors. The causes of CVD are multifactorial, and hypertension seldom exists as an isolated risk factor. Classic models of risk assessment are more accurate than a simple counting of risk factors, but they are not generalizable to all populations. In addition, the risk associated with hypertension is graded, continuous, and independent of other risk factors, and this is not reflected in classic models of risk assessment. This article is intended to review both classic and newer models of CVD risk assessment. MEDLINE was searched for articles published between 1990 and 2005 that contained the terms cardiovascular disease, hypertension, or risk assessment. Articles describing major clinical trials, new data about cardiovascular risk, or global risk stratification were selected for review. Some patients at high long-term risk for CVD events (eg, patients aged <50 years with multiple risk factors) may go untreated because they do not meet the absolute risk-intervention threshold of 20% risk over 10 years with the classic model. Recognition of the limitations of classic risk-assessment models led to new guidelines, particularly those of the European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology. These guidelines view hypertension as one of many risk and disease factors that require treatment to decrease risk. These newer guidelines include a more comprehensive range of risk factors and more finely graded blood pressure ranges to stratify patients by degree of risk. Whether they accurately predict CVD risk in most populations is not known. Evidence from the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) study, which stratified patients by several risk and disease factors, highlights the predictive value of some newer CVD risk assessments. Modern risk assessments, which include blood pressure

Determining post-test risk in a national sample of stress nuclear myocardial perfusion imaging reports: Implications for natural language processing tools.

PubMed

Levy, Andrew E; Shah, Nishant R; Matheny, Michael E; Reeves, Ruth M; Gobbel, Glenn T; Bradley, Steven M

2018-04-25

Reporting standards promote clarity and consistency of stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) reports, but do not require an assessment of post-test risk. Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools could potentially help estimate this risk, yet it is unknown whether reports contain adequate descriptive data to use NLP. Among VA patients who underwent stress MPI and coronary angiography between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011, 99 stress test reports were randomly selected for analysis. Two reviewers independently categorized each report for the presence of critical data elements essential to describing post-test ischemic risk. Few stress MPI reports provided a formal assessment of post-test risk within the impression section (3%) or the entire document (4%). In most cases, risk was determinable by combining critical data elements (74% impression, 98% whole). If ischemic risk was not determinable (25% impression, 2% whole), inadequate description of systolic function (9% impression, 1% whole) and inadequate description of ischemia (5% impression, 1% whole) were most commonly implicated. Post-test ischemic risk was determinable but rarely reported in this sample of stress MPI reports. This supports the potential use of NLP to help clarify risk. Further study of NLP in this context is needed.

The Genetics Panel of the NAS BEAR I Committee (1956): epistolary evidence suggests self-interest may have prompted an exaggeration of radiation risks that led to the adoption of the LNT cancer risk assessment model.

PubMed

Calabrese, Edward J

2014-09-01

This paper extends a series of historical papers which demonstrated that the linear-no-threshold (LNT) model for cancer risk assessment was founded on ideological-based scientific deceptions by key radiation genetics leaders. Based on an assessment of recently uncovered personal correspondence, it is shown that some members of the United States (US) National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation I (BEAR I) Genetics Panel were motivated by self-interest to exaggerate risks to promote their science and personal/professional agenda. Such activities have profound implications for public policy and may have had a significant impact on the adoption of the LNT model for cancer risk assessment.

Assessment of mercury health risks to adults from coal combustion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Fthenakis, V.M.

1994-05-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing, for the U.S. Congress, a report evaluating the need to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from electric utilities. This study, to be completed in 1995, will have important health and economic implications. In support of these efforts, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to evaluate methylmercury (MeHg) hazards independently. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical 1000 MW{sub e} coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The approach drawsmore » on the extant knowledge in each of the important steps in the calculation chain from emissions to health effects. Estimated results at key points in the chain were compared with actual measurements to help validate the modeled estimates. Two cases were considered: the baseline case (no local impacts), and the impact case (maximum local power-plant impact). The BNL study showed that the effects of emissions of a single power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized area near the power plant. Many implicit and explicit sources of uncertainty exist in this analysis. Those that appear to be most in need of improvement include data on doses and responses for potentially sensitive subpopulations (e.g., fetal exposures). Rather than considering hypothetical situations, it would also be preferable to assess the risks associated with actual coal-fired power plants and the nearby sensitive water bodies and susceptible subpopulations. Finally, annual total Hg emissions from coal burning and from other anthropogenic sources are still uncertain; this makes it difficult to estimate the effects of U.S. coal burning on global Hg concentration levels, especially over the long term.« less

Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, S. F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.; Solidum, R. U.; Wilson, T. M.

2014-04-01

This paper presents structured and cost-effective methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of at-risk communities to the range of volcanic hazards, developed as part of the MIA-VITA project (2009-2012). An initial assessment of building and infrastructure vulnerability has been carried out for a set of broadly defined building types and infrastructure categories, with the likelihood of damage considered separately for projectile impact, ash fall loading, pyroclastic density current dynamic pressure and earthquake ground shaking intensities. In refining these estimates for two case study areas: Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines and Fogo volcano in Cape Verde, we have developed guidelines and methodologies for carrying out physical vulnerability assessments in the field. These include identifying primary building characteristics, such as construction material and method, as well as subsidiary characteristics, for example the size and prevalence of openings, that may be important in assessing eruption impacts. At-risk buildings around Kanlaon were found to be dominated by timber frame buildings that exhibit a high vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents, but a low vulnerability to failure from seismic shaking. Around Fogo, the predominance of unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slab roofs suggests a high vulnerability to volcanic earthquake but a low vulnerability to ash fall loading. Given the importance of agriculture for local livelihoods around Kanlaon and Fogo, we discuss the potential impact of infrastructure vulnerability for local agricultural economies, with implications for volcanic areas worldwide. These methodologies and tools go some way towards offering a standardised approach to carrying out future vulnerability assessments for populated volcanic areas.

Cognitive reserve: implications for assessment and intervention.

PubMed

Stern, Yaakov

2013-01-01

The concept of reserve is used to explain the observation that some individuals function better than others in the presence of brain pathology. This article reviews the concept of reserve from its theoretical basis to the implication of reserve for clinical practice. A distinction between brain reserve, referring to individual differences in the anatomic substrate, and cognitive reserve, referring to differences in the flexibility or adaptivity of cognitive networks, is useful. Epidemiologic evidence indicates that a set of life exposures including higher educational and occupational attainment, and engaging in leisure activities is associated with a lower risk of incident dementia, suggesting that these life exposures may enhance cognitive reserve. This provides a basis for controlled clinical studies that can test specific exposures that may enhance reserve. The concept of cognitive reserve also has important implications for clinical practice in terms of diagnosis and prognosis. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Cognitive Reserve: Implications for Assessment and Intervention

PubMed Central

Stern, Yaakov

2014-01-01

The concept of reserve is used to explain the observation that some individuals function better than others in the presence of brain pathology. This paper reviews the concept of reserve from its theoretical basis to the implication of reserve for clinical practice. A distinction between brain reserve, referring to individual differences in the anatomic substrate, and cognitive reserve, referring to differences in the flexibility or adaptivity of cognitive networks, is useful. Epidemiologic evidence indicates that a set of life exposures including higher educational and occupational attainment, and engaging in leisure activities is associated with a lower risk of incident dementia, suggesting that these life exposures may enhance cognitive reserve. This provides a basis for controlled clinical studies can test specific exposures that may enhance reserve. The concept of cognitive reserve also has important implications for clinical practice in terms of diagnosis and prognosis. PMID:23941972

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

PubMed

Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

2014-05-01

To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Ethical implications for clinical practice and future research in "at risk" individuals.

PubMed

Singh, Fiza; Mirzakhanian, Heline; Fusar-Poli, Paolo; de la Fuente-Sandoval, Camilo; Cadenhead, Kristin S

2012-01-01

The last 15 years have witnessed a shift in schizophrenia research with increasing interest in earlier stages of illness with the hope of early intervention and ultimately prevention of psychotic illness. Large-scale longitudinal studies have identified clinical and biological risk factors associated with increased risk of psychotic conversion, which together with symptomatic and demographic risk factors may improve the power of prediction algorithms for psychotic transition. Despite these advances, 45-70% of at risk subjects in most samples do not convert to frank psychosis, but continue to function well below their age matched counterparts. The issue is of utmost importance in light of the upcoming DSM-V and the possible inclusion of the attenuated psychotic symptoms syndrome (APSS) diagnosis, with clinical and ethical implications. Clinical considerations include feasibility of reliably diagnosing the at risk state in non-academic medical centers, variable psychotic conversion rates, a non-uniform definition of conversion and extensive debate about treatment for individuals with an ill-defined outcome. On the ethical side, diagnosing APSS could lead to unnecessary prescribing of antipsychotics with long-term deleterious consequences, slow research by providing a false sense of comfort in the diagnosis, and have psychosocial implications for those who receive a diagnosis. Thus it may be prudent to engage at risk populations early and to use broad-spectrum treatments with low risk benefit ratios to relieve functional impairments, while simultaneously studying all subsets of the at risk population.

Genetically modified plants and food hypersensitivity diseases: usage and implications of experimental models for risk assessment.

PubMed

Prescott, Vanessa E; Hogan, Simon P

2006-08-01

The recent advances in biotechnology in the plant industry have led to increasing crop production and yield that in turn has increased the usage of genetically modified (GM) food in the human food chain. The usage of GM foods for human consumption has raised a number of fundamental questions including the ability of GM foods to elicit potentially harmful immunological responses, including allergic hypersensitivity. To assess the safety of foods derived from GM plants including allergenic potential, the US FDA, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO), and the EU have developed approaches for evaluation assessment. One assessment approach that has been a very active area of research and debate is the development and usage of animal models to assess the potential allergenicity of GM foods. A number of specific animal models employing rodents, pigs, and dogs have been developed for allergenicity assessment. However, validation of these models is needed and consideration of the criteria for an appropriate animal model for the assessment of allergenicity in GM plants is required. We have recently employed a BALB/c mouse model to assess the potential allergenicity of GM plants. We have been able to demonstrate that this model is able to detect differences in antigenicity and identify aspects of protein post-translational modifications that can alter antigenicity. Furthermore, this model has also enabled us to examine the usage of GM plants as a therapeutic approach for the treatment of allergic diseases. This review discusses the current approaches to assess the allergenic potential of GM food and particularly focusing on the usage of animal models to determine the potential allergenicity of GM foods and gives an overview of our recent findings and implications of these studies.

Kinetic and kinematic differences between first and second landings of a drop vertical jump task: Implications for injury risk assessments✩

PubMed Central

Bates, Nathaniel A.; Ford, Kevin R.; Myer, Gregory D.; Hewett, Timothy E.

2013-01-01

Background Though the first landing of drop vertical jump task is commonly used to assess biomechanical performance measures that are associated with anterior cruciate ligament injury risk in athletes, the implications of the second landing in this task have largely been ignored. We examined the first and second landings of a drop vertical jump for differences in kinetic and kinematic behaviors at the hip and knee. Methods Acohort of 239 adolescent female basketball athletes (age = 13.6 (1.6) years) completed drop vertical jump tasks from an initial height of 31 cm. A three dimensional motion capture system recorded positional data while dual force platforms recorded ground reaction forces for each trial. Findings The first landing demonstrated greater hip adduction angle, knee abduction angle, and knee abduction moment than the second landing (P-values < 0.028). The second landing demonstrated smaller flexion angles and moments at the hip and knee than the first landing (P-values < 0.035). The second landing also demonstrated greater side-to-side asymmetry in hip and knee kinematics and kinetics for both the frontal and sagittal planes (P-values < 0.044). Interpretation The results have important implications for the future use of the drop vertical jump as an assessment tool for anterior cruciate ligament injury risk behaviors in adolescent female athletes. The second landing may be a more rigorous task and provides a superior tool to evaluate sagittal plane risk factors than the first landing, which may be better suited to evaluate frontal plane risk factors. PMID:23562293

Fall risk assessment and prevention.

PubMed

Kline, Nancy E; Davis, Mary Elizabeth; Thom, Bridgette

2011-02-01

Patient falls are a common cause of morbidity and are the leading cause of injury deaths in adults age 65 years and older. Injuries sustained as result of falls in a cancer hospital are often severe, regardless of patient age, due to the nature of the underlying cancer. Falls are a nursing-sensitive indicator and nurses are in a unique position to assess, design, implement, and evaluate programs for fall risk reduction. We analyzed our nursing processes related to falls and fall prevention in conjunction with an evidence-based review, a research study to improve our fall risk-assessment process, and development of a comprehensive fall-reduction program. This article outlines how our institution developed a fall risk assessment for the oncology patient population, and utilized this assessment in a comprehensive nursing approach to fall prevention in both inpatient and outpatient settings.

Psychopathy and community violence among civil psychiatric patients: results from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.

PubMed

Skeem, J L; Mulvey, E P

2001-06-01

Although psychopathy is recognized as a relatively strong risk factor for violence among inmates and mentally disordered offenders, few studies have examined the extent to which its predictive power generalizes to civil psychiatric samples. Using data on 1,136 patients from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment project, this study examined whether the 2 scales that underlie the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) measure a unique personality construct that predicts violence among civil patients. The results indicate that the PCL:SV is a relatively strong predictor of violence. The PCL:SV's predictive power is substantially reduced, but remains significant, after controlling for a host of covariates that reflect antisocial behavior and personality disorders other than psychopathy. However, the predictive power of the PCL:SV is not based on its assessment of the core traits of psychopathy, as traditionally construed. Implications for the 2-factor model that underlies the PCL measures and for risk assessment practice are discussed.

Assessing HIV risk in workplaces for prioritizing HIV preventive interventions in Karnataka State, India.

PubMed

Halli, Shiva S; Buzdugan, Raluca; Ramesh, B M; Gurnani, Vandana; Sharma, Vivek; Moses, Stephen; Blanchard, James F

2009-09-01

To develop a model for prioritizing economic sectors for HIV preventive intervention programs in the workplace. This study was undertaken in Karnataka state, India. A 3-stage survey process was undertaken. In the first stage, we reviewed secondary data available from various government departments, identified industries in the private sector with large workforces, and mapped their geographical distribution. In the second stage, an initial rapid risk assessment of industrial sectors was undertaken, using key-informant interviews conducted in relation to a number of enterprises, and in consultation with stakeholders. In the third stage, we used both quantitative (polling booth survey) and qualitative methods (key informant interviews, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions) to study high-risk sectors in-depth, and assessed the need and feasibility of HIV workplace intervention programs. The highest risk sectors were found to be mining, garment/textile, sugar, construction/infrastructure, and fishing industries. Workers in all sectors had at best partial knowledge about HIV/AIDS, coupled with common misconceptions about HIV transmission. There were intersector and intrasector variations in risk and vulnerability across different geographical locations and across different categories of workers. This has implications for the design and implementation of workplace intervention programs. There is tremendous scope for HIV preventive interventions in workplaces in India. Given the variation in HIV risk across economic sectors and limited available resources, there will be increased pressure to prioritize intervention efforts towards high-risk sectors. This study offers a model for rapidly assessing the risk level of economic sectors for HIV intervention programs.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

PubMed

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barlow, Susan, E-mail: suebarlow@mistral.co.u; Schlatter, Josef; Federal Office of Public Health, Consumer Protection Directorate, Stauffacherstrasse 101, CH-8004 Zuerich

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitudemore » below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.« less

Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

PubMed Central

Coffey, Patrick S.

2014-01-01

Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

Ethics and transparent risk communication start with proper risk assessment methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oboni, Franco; Oboni, Cesar

2014-05-01

We will use throught this paper a "dialogue" between two professionals. One is aware of the misleading character of many risk assessments and wants to foster better approaches. A discomforting set of statements sets the background of the "story": public reactions to risk assessments are generally negative, the developer find it difficult to understand the reasons for general public negative reactions, many projects get often rejected without valid reasons by the public, anywhere in the world. Common practice approaches in Risk Assessment are discussed from the angle of public rejection, taking into account various studies that explicitly expose common practices limitations and voids. The hiatus between rational and well-balanced risk assessments and common practices is explored. Finally solutions to overcome the limitations of common practices and deliver to the public more realistic risk assessment on which to build a widespread consensus are reviewed. The paper conclusions relate to the need of: properly communicating risk throughout the life of a project, from cradle to grave, avoiding conflict of interest, having estimates that are understandable to foster good understanding of what a risk assessment can bring to better Human existence, in an ethical and fair way. The paper delivers a list of possible remedies and shows that "Common Practices" do not equate to "Best Practices": common practices are not to be proposed/used any longer if we want to avoid public distrust and misrepresentations. Many of the "modern" issues ranging from public distrust to insurance denial could be relieved or mitigated ahead of time if misrepresentation was kept at bay using five simple rules. Common practice Risk Assessments, especially those developed under conflict of interest situations, generally misrepresent risks and fail to give the "big picture", hence do not help taking valid decision and are prone to generating/fostering public distrust.

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Implications of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster: Man-Made Hazards, Vulnerability Factors, and Risk to Environmental Health.

PubMed

Eddy, Christopher; Sase, Eriko

2015-01-01

The objective of this article was to examine the environmental health implications of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster from an all-hazards perspective. The authors performed a literature review that included Japanese and international nuclear guidance and policy, scientific papers, and reports on the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island disasters while also considering all-hazards preparedness rubrics in the U.S. The examination of the literature resulted in the following: a) the authors' "All-Hazards Planning Reference Model" that distinguishes three planning categories-Disaster Trigger Event, Man-Made Hazards, and Vulnerability Factors; b) the generalization of their model to other countries; and c) advocacy for environmental health end fate to be considered in planning phases to minimize risk to environmental health. This article discusses inconsistencies in disaster planning and nomenclature existing in the studied materials and international guidance and proposes new opportunity for developing predisaster risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention capacity building.

Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

PubMed Central

Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

2016-01-01

Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

Carotid Plaque Morphological Classification Compared With Biomechanical Cap Stress: Implications for a Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Based Assessment.

PubMed

Gijsen, Frank J H; Nieuwstadt, Harm A; Wentzel, Jolanda J; Verhagen, Hence J M; van der Lugt, Aad; van der Steen, Antonius F W

2015-08-01

Two approaches to target plaque vulnerability-a histopathologic classification scheme and a biomechanical analysis-were compared and the implications for noninvasive risk stratification of carotid plaques using magnetic resonance imaging were assessed. Seventy-five histological plaque cross sections were obtained from carotid endarterectomy specimens from 34 patients (>70% stenosis) and subjected to both a Virmani histopathologic classification (thin fibrous cap atheroma with <0.2-mm cap thickness, presumed vulnerable) and a peak cap stress computation (<140 kPa: presumed stable; >300 kPa: presumed vulnerable). To demonstrate the implications for noninvasive plaque assessment, numeric simulations of a typical carotid magnetic resonance imaging protocol were performed (0.62×0.62 mm(2) in-plane acquired voxel size) and used to obtain the magnetic resonance imaging-based peak cap stress. Peak cap stress was generally associated with histological classification. However, only 16 of 25 plaque cross sections could be labeled as high-risk (peak cap stress>300 kPa and classified as a thin fibrous cap atheroma). Twenty-eight of 50 plaque cross sections could be labeled as low-risk (a peak cap stress<140 kPa and not a thin fibrous cap atheroma), leading to a κ=0.39. 31 plaques (41%) had a disagreement between both classifications. Because of the limited magnetic resonance imaging voxel size with regard to cap thickness, a noninvasive identification of only a group of low-risk, thick-cap plaques was reliable. Instead of trying to target only vulnerable plaques, a more reliable noninvasive identification of a select group of stable plaques with a thick cap and low stress might be a more fruitful approach to start reducing surgical interventions on carotid plaques. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

PubMed

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-04-29

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has

Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment: Overview of Exposure Assessment, Whole Mixtures Assessments; Basic Concepts

EPA Science Inventory

This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks f...

Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

17 5.4.2 Step 2: Gather relevant technology and alternative information............... 17 5.4.3 Step 3: Secure SME support for readiness...level assessment. ................... 17 5.4.4 Step 4: SMEs assess TRL, IRL, and MRL for each technology. .............. 17 5.4.5 Step 5: Identify...technical risks, risk ratings, and mitigations. .................. 20 5.4.6 Step 6: SMEs identify key technologies

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

1997-08-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

PubMed

Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

2016-07-27

Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence.

RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

EPA Science Inventory

The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

PubMed Central

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

Preconception risk assessment of infertile couples

PubMed Central

Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali

2013-01-01

Background: With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples. This study has tried to investigate preconception risk assessment in infertile couples. Materials and Methods: This is a descriptive analytical survey conducted on 268 subjects, selected by convenient sampling, referring to Isfahan infertility centers (Iran). The data were collected by questionnaires through interview and clients’ medical records. Pre-pregnancy risk assessment including history taking (personal, familial, medical, medications, menstruation, and pregnancy), exams (physical, genital, and vital signs), and routine test requests (routine, cervix, infections, and biochemical tests) was performed in the present study. Results: The results showed that the lowest percentage of taking a complete history was for personal history (0.4%) and the highest was for history of menstruation (100%). The lowest percentage of complete exam was for physical exam (3.4%) and the highest for genital exam (100%). With regard to laboratory assessment, the highest percentage was for routine tests (36.6%) and the lowest was for infection tests (0.4%). Conclusion: Based o the results of the present study, most of the risk assessment components are poorly assessed in infertile couples. With regard to the importance of infertility treatment, spending high costs and time on that, and existence of high-risk individuals as well as treatment failures, health providers should essentially pay special attention to preconception risk assessment in infertile couples in order to enhance the chance of success and promote treatment outcome. PMID:23983724

Metal uptake by homegrown vegetables - the relative importance in human health risk assessments at contaminated sites.

PubMed

Augustsson, Anna L M; Uddh-Söderberg, Terese E; Hogmalm, K Johan; Filipsson, Monika E M

2015-04-01

Risk assessments of contaminated land often involve the use of generic bioconcentration factors (BCFs), which express contaminant concentrations in edible plant parts as a function of the concentration in soil, in order to assess the risks associated with consumption of homegrown vegetables. This study aimed to quantify variability in BCFs and evaluate the implications of this variability for human exposure assessments, focusing on cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in lettuce and potatoes sampled around 22 contaminated glassworks sites. In addition, risks associated with measured Cd and Pb concentrations in soil and vegetable samples were characterized and a probabilistic exposure assessment was conducted to estimate the likelihood of local residents exceeding tolerable daily intakes. The results show that concentrations in vegetables were only moderately elevated despite high concentrations in soil, and most samples complied with applicable foodstuff legislation. Still, the daily intake of Cd (but not Pb) was assessed to exceed toxicological thresholds for about a fifth of the study population. Bioconcentration factors were found to vary more than indicated by previous studies, but decreasing BCFs with increasing metal concentrations in the soil can explain why the calculated exposure is only moderately affected by the choice of BCF value when generic soil guideline values are exceeded and the risk may be unacceptable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Risk assessment for juvenile justice: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schwalbe, Craig S

2007-10-01

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.

The implication of assessing a polymorphism in estrogen receptor alpha gene in the risk assessment of osteoporosis using a screening tool for osteoporosis in Asians.

PubMed

Ongphiphadhanakul, Boonsong; Chanprasertyothin, Suwannee; Payattikul, Penpan; Saetung, Sunee; Rajatanavin, Rajata

2003-10-01

Both genetic and environmental factors interact to determine bone mass and the risk for developing postmenopausal osteoporosis. Recently, an Asian-specific tool, the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA), has been developed to assess the risk of osteoporosis in women. An index is calculated by multiplying the difference in body weight in kilograms and age in years by 0.2 and disregarding the decimal digits. The risk of osteoporosis is classified as high, intermediate or low according to the OSTA index less than -4, -4 to -1 and greater than -1. In the present study we examined how a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in exon 8 of the estrogen receptor alpha (ERalpha) gene affected the predictive value of the OSTA index. Subjects consisted of 358 postmenopausal women who were at least 55 years old. BMDs were measured by DXA, and the SNP in the ERalpha gene was assessed by PCR-RFLP. When considering both the OSTA index and ERalpha genotype in a logistic regression model, it was found that both the OSTA index and the ERalpha genotype independently contributed to the risk of osteoporosis. The odds ratios were 1.58 (95% CI 1.26-1.91) and 2.51 (95% CI 1.42-4.44) for one unit decrement in the OSTA index and each copy of the A allele of the ERalpha genotype, respectively. The joint effect conformed more to a multiplicative model of interaction than an additive model. This suggests that persons with the high-risk genotype are at far greater risk of developing osteoporosis with advancing age or decreasing body weight, the two variables from which the OSTA index is derived. Targeting preventive measures for osteoporosis subjects with risk factors and also disease-susceptibility alleles is likely to be more cost effective.

Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

Cancer.gov

Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

Presidential Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

September 26, 1997. The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, which was mandated as part of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, was disbanded on August 31, 1997, with some staff work continuing into September. The reports and asso...

Understanding Clinicians' Use of Cues When Assessing the Future Risk of Violence: A Clinical Judgement Analysis in the Psychiatric Setting.

PubMed

Brown, Barbara; Rakow, Tim

2016-01-01

Research is sparse on how clinicians' judgement informs their violence risk assessments. Yet, determining preferences for which risk factors are used, and how they are weighted and combined, is important to understanding such assessments. This study investigated clinicians' use of static and dynamic cues when assessing risk in individual patients and for dynamic cues considered in the recent and distant past. Clinicians provided three violence risk assessments for 41 separate hypothetical cases of hospitalized patients, each defined by eight cues (e.g., psychopathy and past violence severity/frequency). A clinical judgement analysis, using regression analysis of judgements for multiple cases, created linear models reflecting the major influences on each individual clinician's judgement. Risk assessments could be successfully predicted by between one and four cues, and there was close agreement between different clinicians' models regarding which cues were relevant for a given assessment. However, which cues were used varied between assessments: history of recent violence predicted assessments of in-hospital risk, whereas violence in the distant past predicted the assessed risk in the community. Crucially, several factors included in actuarial/structured risk assessment tools had little influence on clinicians' assessments. Our findings point to the adaptivity in clinicians' violence risk assessments, with a preference for relying on information consistent with the setting for which the assessment applies. The implication is that clinicians are open to using different structured assessment tools for different kinds of risk assessment, although they may seek greater flexibility in their assessments than some structured risk assessment tools afford (e.g., discounting static risk factors). Across three separate violence risk assessments, clinicians' risk assessments were more strongly influenced by dynamic cues that can vary over time (e.g., level of violence) than by

Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tucker, William; And Others

1994-01-01

This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

2013-01-01

A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment: Problem Formulation

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Before the ecological risk assessment is conducted, risk assessors and risk managers engage in a planning dialogue to ensure that the risk assessment will enable the risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.

Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

PubMed Central

Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

2016-01-01

Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

Older Persons’ Perception of Risk of Falling: Implications for Fall-Prevention Campaigns

PubMed Central

Hughes, Karen; van Beurden, Eric; Eakin, Elizabeth G.; Barnett, Lisa M.; Patterson, Elizabeth; Backhouse, Jan; Jones, Sue; Hauser, Darren; Beard, John R.; Newman, Beth

2008-01-01

Objectives. We examined older people’s attitudes about falls and implications for the design of fall-prevention awareness campaigns. Methods. We assessed data from (1) computer-assisted telephone surveys conducted in 2002 with Australians 60 years and older in Northern Rivers, New South Wales (site of a previous fall-prevention program; n=1601), and Wide Bay, Queensland (comparison community; n=1601), and (2) 8 focus groups (n=73). Results. Participants from the previous intervention site were less likely than were comparison participants to agree that falls are not preventable (odds ratio [OR]=0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.65, 0.90) and more likely to rate the prevention of falls a high priority (OR=1.31; 95% CI=1.09, 1.57). There was no difference between the groups for self-perceived risk of falls; more than 60% rated their risk as low. Those with a low perceived risk were more likely to be men, younger, partnered, and privately insured, and to report better health and no history of falls. Focus group data indicated that older people preferred messages that emphasized health and independence rather than falls. Conclusions. Although older people accepted traditional fall-prevention messages, most viewed them as not personally relevant. Messages that promote health and independence may be more effective. PMID:18172132

Risk assessing study for Bio-CCS technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, A.; Sakamoto, Y.; Kano, Y.; Higashino, H.; Suzumura, M.; Tosha, T.; Nakao, S.; Komai, T.

2013-12-01

We have started a new R&D project titled 'Energy resources creation by geo-microbes and CCS'. It is new concept of a technology which cultivate methanogenic geo-microbes in reservoirs of geological CCS conditions to produce methane gas effectively and safely. As one of feasibility studies, we are evaluating risks around its new Bio-CCS technology. Our consideration involves risk scenarios about Bio-CCS in geological strata, marine environment, surface facilities, ambient air and injection sites. To cover risk scenarios in these areas, we are carrying out a sub-project with five sub-themes. Four sub-themes out of five are researches for identifying risk scenarios: A) Underground strata and injection well, B) Ambient air, C) Surface facilities and D) Seabed. We are developing risk assessment tool,named GERAS-CO2GS (Geo-environmental Risk Assessment System,CO2 Geological Storage Risk Assessment System. We are going to combine identified risk scenarios into GERAS-CO2GS accordingly. It is expected that new GERAS-CO2GS will contribute to risk assessment and management for not only Bio-CCS but also individual injection sites, and facilitate under standing of risks among legislators and concerned peoples around injection site.

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

The evolution of violence risk assessment.

PubMed

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2014-10-01

Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

Assessing the port to port risk of vessel movements vectoring non-indigenous marine species within and across domestic Australian borders.

PubMed

Campbell, Marnie L; Hewitt, Chad L

2011-07-01

Biofouling of vessels is implicated as a high risk transfer mechanism of non-indigenous marine species (NIMS). Biofouling on international vessels is managed through stringent border control policies, however, domestic biofouling transfers are managed under different policies and legislative arrangements as they cross internal borders. As comprehensive guidelines are developed and increased compliance of international vessels with 'clean hull' expectations increase, vessel movements from port to port will become the focus of biosecurity management. A semi-quantitative port to port biofouling risk assessment is presented that evaluates the presence of known NIMS in the source port and determines the likelihood of transfer based on the NIMS association with biofouling and environmental match between source and receiving ports. This risk assessment method was used to assess the risk profile of a single dredge vessel during three anticipated voyages within Australia, resulting in negligible to low risk outcomes. This finding is contrasted with expectations in the literature, specifically those that suggest slow moving vessels pose a high to extreme risk of transferring NIMS species.

Variability in quartz exposure in the construction industry: implications for assessing exposure-response relations.

PubMed

Tjoe Nij, Evelyn; Höhr, Doris; Borm, Paul; Burstyn, Igor; Spierings, Judith; Steffens, Friso; Lumens, Mieke; Spee, Ton; Heederik, Dick

2004-03-01

The aims of this study were to determine implications of inter- and intraindividual variation in exposure to respirable (quartz) dust and of heterogeneity in dust characteristics for epidemiologic research in construction workers. Full-shift personal measurements (n = 67) from 34 construction workers were collected. The between-worker and day-to-day variances of quartz and respirable dust exposure were estimated using mixed models. Heterogeneity in dust characteristics was evaluated by electron microscopic analysis and electron spin resonance. A grouping strategy based on job title resulted in a 2- and 3.5-fold reduction in expected attenuation of a hypothetical exposure-response relation for respirable dust and quartz exposure, respectively, compared to an individual based approach. Material worked on explained most of the between-worker variance in respirable dust and quartz exposure. However, for risk assessment in epidemiology, grouping workers based on the materials they work on is not practical. Microscopic characterization of dust samples showed large quantities of aluminum silicates and large quantities of smaller particles, resulting in a D(50) between 1 and 2 microm. For risk analysis, job title can be used to create exposure groups, although error is introduced by the heterogeneity of dust produced by different construction workers activities and by the nonuniformity of exposure groups. A grouping scheme based on materials worked on would be superior, for both exposure and risk assessment, but is not practical when assessing past exposure. In dust from construction sites, factors are present that are capable of influencing the toxicological potency.

An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2018-05-01

To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

NEUROTOXICOLOGY IN REGULATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The paper is to be published in the proceedings of a conference on learning disabilities. It summarizes the need for neurotoxicology data in risk assessment, the regulatory agencies which have authority to require toxicity testing, the overall process of risk assessment and the p...

Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

Meeting Report: Risk Assessment of Tamiflu Use Under Pandemic Conditions

PubMed Central

Singer, Andrew C.; Howard, Bruce M.; Johnson, Andrew C.; Knowles, Chris J.; Jackman, Simon; Accinelli, Cesare; Caracciolo, Anna Barra; Bernard, Ian; Bird, Stephen; Boucard, Tatiana; Boxall, Alistair; Brian, Jayne V.; Cartmell, Elise; Chubb, Chris; Churchley, John; Costigan, Sandra; Crane, Mark; Dempsey, Michael J.; Dorrington, Bob; Ellor, Brian; Fick, Jerker; Holmes, John; Hutchinson, Tom; Karcher, Franz; Kelleher, Samuel L.; Marsden, Peter; Noone, Gerald; Nunn, Miles A.; Oxford, John; Rachwal, Tony; Roberts, Noel; Roberts, Mike; Saccà, Maria Ludovica; Sanders, Matthew; Straub, Jürg Oliver; Terry, Adrian; Thomas, Dean; Toovey, Stephen; Townsend, Rodney; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos; Watts, Chris

2008-01-01

On 3 October 2007, 40 participants with diverse expertise attended the workshop Tamiflu and the Environment: Implications of Use under Pandemic Conditions to assess the potential human health impact and environmental hazards associated with use of Tamiflu during an influenza pandemic. Based on the identification and risk-ranking of knowledge gaps, the consensus was that oseltamivir ethylester-phosphate (OE-P) and oseltamivir carboxylate (OC) were unlikely to pose an ecotoxicologic hazard to freshwater organisms. OC in river water might hasten the generation of OC-resistance in wildfowl, but this possibility seems less likely than the potential disruption that could be posed by OC and other pharmaceuticals to the operation of sewage treatment plants. The work-group members agreed on the following research priorities: a) available data on the ecotoxicology of OE-P and OC should be published; b) risk should be assessed for OC-contaminated river water generating OC-resistant viruses in wildfowl; c) sewage treatment plant functioning due to microbial inhibition by neuraminidase inhibitors and other antimicrobials used during a pandemic should be investigated; and d) realistic worst-case exposure scenarios should be developed. Additional modeling would be useful to identify localized areas within river catchments that might be prone to high pharmaceutical concentrations in sewage treatment plant effluent. Ongoing seasonal use of Tamiflu in Japan offers opportunities for researchers to assess how much OC enters and persists in the aquatic environment. PMID:19057712

Skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment for occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dye ingredients.

PubMed

Goebel, Carsten; Diepgen, Thomas L; Blömeke, Brunhilde; Gaspari, Anthony A; Schnuch, Axel; Fuchs, Anne; Schlotmann, Kordula; Krasteva, Maya; Kimber, Ian

2018-06-01

Occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dyes has been associated with the development of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) involving the hands. p-Phenylenediamine (PPD) and toluene-2,5-diamine (PTD) have been implicated as important occupational contact allergens. To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for the induction of contact sensitization to hair dyes in hairdressers, available data from hand rinsing studies following typical occupational exposure conditions to PPD, PTD and resorcinol were assessed. By accounting for wet work, uneven exposure and inter-individual variability for professionals, daily hand exposure concentrations were derived. Secondly, daily hand exposure was compared with the sensitization induction potency of the individual hair dye defined as the No Expected Sensitization Induction Levels (NESIL). For PPD and PTD hairdresser hand exposure levels were 2.7 and 5.9 fold below the individual NESIL. In contrast, hand exposure to resorcinol was 50 fold below the NESIL. Correspondingly, the risk assessment for PPD and PTD indicates that contact sensitization may occur, when skin protection and skin care are not rigorously applied. We conclude that awareness of health risks associated with occupational exposure to hair dyes, and of the importance of adequate protective measures, should be emphasized more fully during hairdresser education and training. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Execution of a self-directed risk assessment methodology to address HIPAA data security requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coleman, Johnathan

2003-05-01

This paper analyzes the method and training of a self directed risk assessment methodology entitled OCTAVE (Operationally Critical Threat Asset and Vulnerability Evaluation) at over 170 DOD medical treatment facilities. It focuses specifically on how OCTAVE built interdisciplinary, inter-hierarchical consensus and enhanced local capabilities to perform Health Information Assurance. The Risk Assessment Methodology was developed by the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University as part of the Defense Health Information Assurance Program (DHIAP). The basis for its success is the combination of analysis of organizational practices and technological vulnerabilities. Together, these areas address the core implications behind the HIPAA Security Rule and can be used to develop Organizational Protection Strategies and Technological Mitigation Plans. A key component of OCTAVE is the inter-disciplinary composition of the analysis team (Patient Administration, IT staff and Clinician). It is this unique composition of analysis team members, along with organizational and technical analysis of business practices, assets and threats, which enables facilities to create sound and effective security policies. The Risk Assessment is conducted in-house, and therefore the process, results and knowledge remain within the organization, helping to build consensus in an environment of differing organizational and disciplinary perspectives on Health Information Assurance.

Appraising the risk matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Tully, Ruth J; Browne, Kevin D

2015-02-01

This critical appraisal explores the reliability and validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool that is widely used in the United Kingdom. The Risk Matrix 2000 has to some extent been empirically validated for use with adult male sex offenders; however, this review highlights that further research into the validity of this static tool with sex offender subgroups or types is necessary in order to improve practical utility. The Risk Matrix 2000 relies on static risk predictors, thus it is limited in scope. This article argues that the addition of dynamic items that have been shown to be predictive of sexual recidivism would further enhance the tool. The paper argues that adding dynamic risk items would fit better with a rehabilitative approach to sex offender risk management and assessment. This would also provide a means by which to effectively plan sex offender treatment and evaluate individual offenders' progress in treatment; however, difficulties remain in identifying and assessing dynamic risk factors of sexual offending and so further research is required. © The Author(s) 2013.

Developing a pressure ulcer risk factor minimum data set and risk assessment framework.

PubMed

Coleman, Susanne; Nelson, E Andrea; Keen, Justin; Wilson, Lyn; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Dealey, Carol; Stubbs, Nikki; Muir, Delia; Farrin, Amanda; Dowding, Dawn; Schols, Jos M G A; Cuddigan, Janet; Berlowitz, Dan; Jude, Edward; Vowden, Peter; Bader, Dan L; Gefen, Amit; Oomens, Cees W J; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Nixon, Jane

2014-10-01

To agree a draft pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set to underpin the development of a new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Framework. A recent systematic review identified the need for a pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set and development and validation of an evidenced-based pressure ulcer Risk Assessment Framework. This was undertaken through the Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research and incorporates five phases. This article reports phase two, a consensus study. Consensus study. A modified nominal group technique based on the Research and Development/University of California at Los Angeles appropriateness method. This incorporated an expert group, review of the evidence and the views of a Patient and Public Involvement service user group. Data were collected December 2010-December 2011. The risk factors and assessment items of the Minimum Data Set (including immobility, pressure ulcer and skin status, perfusion, diabetes, skin moisture, sensory perception and nutrition) were agreed. In addition, a draft Risk Assessment Framework incorporating all Minimum Data Set items was developed, comprising a two stage assessment process (screening and detailed full assessment) and decision pathways. The draft Risk Assessment Framework will undergo further design and pre-testing with clinical nurses to assess and improve its usability. It will then be evaluated in clinical practice to assess its validity and reliability. The Minimum Data Set could be used in future for large scale risk factor studies informing refinement of the Risk Assessment Framework. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing Withering Syndrome Resistance in California Black Abalone: Implications for Conservation and Restoration

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-29

worldwide. California Sea Grant College Program UC San Diego Title: Assessing withering syndrome resistance in California black abalone : Implications...Hunter S.(2009). Assessing withering syndrome resistance in California black abalone : Implications for conservation and restoration. UC San Diego...California Sea Grant College Program. Retrieved from: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/7c39q78n Keywords: black abalone , Haliotis cracherodii, captive breeding

INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xin

2017-04-01

The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

An odor-specific threshold deficit implicates abnormal cAMP signaling in youths at clinical risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Kamath, Vidyulata; Moberg, Paul J; Calkins, Monica E; Borgmann-Winter, Karin; Conroy, Catherine G; Gur, Raquel E; Kohler, Christian G; Turetsky, Bruce I

2012-07-01

While olfactory deficits have been reported in schizophrenia and youths at-risk for psychosis, few studies have linked these deficits to current pathophysiological models of the illness. There is evidence that disrupted cyclic adenosine 3',5'-monophosphate (cAMP) signaling may contribute to schizophrenia pathology. As cAMP mediates olfactory signal transduction, the degree to which this disruption could manifest in olfactory impairment was ascertained. Odor-detection thresholds to two odorants that differ in the degree to which they activate intracellular cAMP were assessed in clinical risk and low-risk participants. Birhinal assessments of odor-detection threshold sensitivity to lyral and citralva were acquired in youths experiencing prodromal symptoms (n=17) and controls at low risk for developing psychosis (n=15). Citralva and lyral are odorants that differ in cAMP activation; citralva is a strong cAMP activator and lyral is a weak cAMP activator. The overall group-by-odor interaction was statistically significant. At-risk youths showed significantly reduced odor detection thresholds for lyral, but showed intact detection thresholds for citralva. This odor-specific threshold deficit was uncorrelated with deficits in odor identification or discrimination, which were also present. ROC curve analysis revealed that olfactory performance correctly classified at-risk and low-risk youths with greater than 97% accuracy. This study extends prior findings of an odor-specific hyposmia implicating cAMP-mediated signal transduction in schizophrenia and unaffected first-degree relatives to include youths at clinical risk for developing the disorder. These results suggest that dysregulation of cAMP signaling may be present during the psychosis prodrome. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An odor-specific threshold deficit implicates abnormal cAMP signaling in youths at clinical risk for psychosis

PubMed Central

Kamath, Vidyulata; Moberg, Paul J.; Calkins, Monica E.; Borgmann-Winter, Karin; Conroy, Catherine G.; Gur, Raquel E.; Kohler, Christian G.; Turetsky, Bruce I.

2012-01-01

Background While olfactory deficits have been reported in schizophrenia and youths at-risk for psychosis, few studies have linked these deficits to current pathophysiological models of the illness. There is evidence that disrupted cyclic adenosine 3’,5’-monophosphate (cAMP) signaling may contribute to schizophrenia pathology. As cAMP mediates olfactory signal transduction, the degree to which this disruption could manifest in olfactory impairment was ascertained. Odor-detection thresholds to two odorants that differ in the degree to which they activate intracellular cAMP were assessed in clinical risk and low-risk participants. Method Birhinal assessments of odor-detection threshold sensitivity to lyral and citralva were acquired in youths experiencing prodromal symptoms (n = 17) and controls at low risk for developing psychosis (n = 15). Citralva and lyral are odorants that differ in cAMP activation; citralva is a strong cAMP activator and lyral is a weak cAMP activator. Results The overall group-by-odor interaction was statistically significant. At-risk youths showed significantly reduced odor detection thresholds for lyral, but showed intact detection thresholds for citralva. This odor-specific threshold deficit was uncorrelated with deficits in odor identification or discrimination, which were also present. ROC curve analysis revealed that olfactory performance correctly classified at-risk and low-risk youths with greater than 97% accuracy. Conclusions This study extends prior findings of an odor-specific hyposmia implicating cAMP-mediated signal transduction in schizophrenia and unaffected first-degree relatives to include youths at clinical risk for developing the disorder. These results suggest that dysregulation of cAMP signaling may be present during the psychosis prodrome. PMID:22537567

Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sources. This national-scale effort will be initiated for the base year 1996 and repeated every three years thereafter to track trends and inform program development. Provide broad-scale understanding of inhalation risks for a subset of atmospherically-emitted air toxics to inform further data-gathering efforts and priority-setting for the EPA's Air Toxics Programs.

Portfolio assessment and evaluation: implications and guidelines for clinical nursing education.

PubMed

Chabeli, M M

2002-08-01

With the advent of Outcomes-Based Education in South Africa, the quality of nursing education is debatable, especially with regard to the assessment and evaluation of clinical nursing education, which is complex and renders the validity and reliability of the methods used questionable. This paper seeks to explore and describe the use of portfolio assessment and evaluation, its implications and guidelines for its effective use in nursing education. Firstly, the concepts of assessment, evaluation, portfolio and alternative methods of evaluation are defined. Secondly, a comparison of the characteristics of the old (traditional) methods and the new alternative methods of evaluation is made. Thirdly, through deductive analysis, synthesis and inference, implications and guidelines for the effective use of portfolio assessment and evaluation are described. In view of the qualitative, descriptive and exploratory nature of the study, a focus group interview with twenty students following a post-basic degree at a university in Gauteng regarding their perceptions on the use of portfolio assessment and evaluation method in clinical nursing education was used. A descriptive method of qualitative data analysis of open coding in accordance with Tesch's protocol (in Creswell 1994:155) was used. Resultant implications and guidelines were conceptualised and described within the existing theoretical framework. Principles of trustworthiness were maintained as described by (Lincoln & Guba 1985:290-327). Ethical considerations were in accordance with DENOSA's standards of research (1998:7).

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

PubMed

Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

2009-04-01

There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

How to Adapt Chemical Risk Assessment for Unconventional Hydrocarbon Extraction Related to the Water System.

PubMed

Faber, Ann-Hélène; Annevelink, Mark; Gilissen, Herman Kasper; Schot, Paul; van Rijswick, Marleen; de Voogt, Pim; van Wezel, Annemarie

2017-12-27

We identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps of chemical risk assessment related to unconventional drillings and propose adaptations. We discuss how chemical risk assessment in the context of unconventional oil and gas (UO&G) activities differs from conventional chemical risk assessment and the implications for existing legislation. A UO&G suspect list of 1,386 chemicals that might be expected in the UO&G water samples was prepared which can be used for LC-HRMS suspect screening. We actualize information on reported concentrations in UO&G-related water. Most information relates to shale gas operations, followed by coal-bed methane, while only little is available for tight gas and conventional gas. The limited research on conventional oil and gas recovery hampers comparison whether risks related to unconventional activities are in fact higher than those related to conventional activities. No study analyzed the whole cycle from fracturing fluid, flowback and produced water, and surface water and groundwater. Generally target screening has been used, probably missing contaminants of concern. Almost half of the organic compounds analyzed in surface water and groundwater exceed TTC values, so further risk assessment is needed, and risks cannot be waived. No specific exposure scenarios toward groundwater aquifers exist for UO&G-related activities. Human errors in various stages of the life cycle of UO&G production play an important role in the exposure. Neither at the international level nor at the US federal and the EU levels, specific regulations for UO&G-related activities are in place to protect environmental and human health. UO&G activities are mostly regulated through general environmental, spatial planning, and mining legislation.

Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

PubMed

Turturro, A; Hart, R W

1987-01-01

A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

PubMed

Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

2018-01-01

Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vibration perception threshold in relation to postural control and fall risk assessment in elderly.

PubMed

de Mettelinge, Tine Roman; Calders, Patrick; Palmans, Tanneke; Vanden Bossche, Luc; Van Den Noortgate, Nele; Cambier, Dirk

2013-09-01

This study investigates (i) the potential discriminative role of a clinical measure of peripheral neuropathy (PN) in assessing postural performance and fall risk and (ii) whether the integration of a simple screening vibration perception threshold (VPT) for PN in any physical (fall risk) assessment among elderly should be recommended, even if they do not suffer from DM. One hundred and ninety-five elderly were entered in a four-group model: DM with PN (D+; n = 75), DM without PN (D-; n = 28), non-diabetic elderly with idiopathic PN (C+; n = 31) and non-diabetic elderly without PN (C-; n = 61). Posturographic sway parameters were captured during different static balance conditions (AMTI AccuGait, Watertown, MA). VPT, fall data, Mini-Mental State Examination and Clock Drawing Test were registered. Two-factor repeated-measures ANOVA was used to compare between groups and across balance conditions. The groups with PN demonstrated a strikingly comparable, though bigger sway, and a higher prospective fall incidence than their peers without PN. The indication of PN, irrespective of its cause, interferes with postural control and fall incidence. The integration of a simple screening for PN (like bio-thesiometry) in any fall risk assessment among elderly is highly recommended. Implications for Rehabilitation The indication of peripheral neuropathy (PN), irrespective of its cause, interferes with postural control and fall incidence. Therefore, the integration of a simple screening for PN (like bio-thesiometry) in any fall risk assessment among elderly is highly recommended. It might be useful to integrate somatosensory stimulation in rehabilitation programs designed for fall prevention.

Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

2017-02-01

The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience.

Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

PubMed Central

Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

2017-01-01

The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience. PMID:28148952

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

PubMed

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

The National Assessment of Citizenship: Implications for Social Studies Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Karen F. A.

In this paper the National Assessment of citizenship's objectives, procedures, exercises, and findings are considered as a source of implications for further research in the area of social studies. First, the methodology of National Assessment can be used as a model for developing objectives, and for devising exercises to measure attainment of…

Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

PubMed

Wallace, W Jon

2007-03-01

Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

The assessment of personality disorders: implications for cognitive and behavior therapy.

PubMed

Van Velzen, C J; Emmelkamp, P M

1996-08-01

This article reviews the comorbidity of personality disorders (PDs) and Axis I disorders and discusses implications for assessment and treatment. Pros and cons of various assessment methods are discussed. The co-occurrence of PDs with Axis I disorders is considerable; roughly half of patients with anxiety disorders, depressive disorders or eating disorders received a PD diagnosis. Comorbidity models are discussed and implications for assessment and treatment are provided. Regarding the impact of PDs on cognitive-behavioral treatment outcome for Axis I disorders, conflicting results are found due to differences in assessment methods, treatment strategies, and patient samples. It is argued that additional Axis I pathology should be taken into account when studying the impact of PDs on treatment outcome for the target Axis I disorders. Finally, it is argued that the interpersonal behavior of the PD patient and the therapeutic relationship deserve more attention in the assessment and treatment of patients with PDs.

REGIONAL SCALE COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...

Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

Imagining flood futures: risk assessment and management in practice.

PubMed

Lane, Stuart N; Landström, Catharina; Whatmore, Sarah J

2011-05-13

The mantra that policy and management should be 'evidence-based' is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from 'evidence' being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between 'evidence', reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through 'suites of practices' entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the 'pseudosciences', they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences

Large-scale model-based assessment of deer-vehicle collision risk.

PubMed

Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2012-01-01

Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer-vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on >74,000 deer-vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer-vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer-vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment-deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new "deer-vehicle collision index" for deer management. We show that the risk of deer-vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer-vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer-vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining hunting quota. Open

Large-Scale Model-Based Assessment of Deer-Vehicle Collision Risk

PubMed Central

Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2012-01-01

Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer–vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on 74,000 deer–vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer–vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer–vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer–vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment–deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new “deer–vehicle collision index” for deer management. We show that the risk of deer–vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer–vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer–vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and

Upholding science in health, safety and environmental risk assessments and regulations.

PubMed

Aschner, Michael; Autrup, Herman N; Berry, Sir Colin L; Boobis, Alan R; Cohen, Samuel M; Creppy, Edmond E; Dekant, Wolfgang; Doull, John; Galli, Corrado L; Goodman, Jay I; Gori, Gio B; Greim, Helmut A; Joudrier, Philippe; Kaminski, Norbert E; Klaassen, Curtis D; Klaunig, James E; Lotti, Marcello; Marquardt, Hans W J; Pelkonen, Olavi; Sipes, I Glenn; Wallace, Kendall B; Yamazaki, Hiroshi

2016-09-14

A public appeal has been advanced by a large group of scientists, concerned that science has been misused in attempting to quantify and regulate unmeasurable hazards and risks. 1 The appeal recalls that science is unable to evaluate hazards that cannot be measured, and that science in such cases should not be invoked to justify risk assessments in health, safety and environmental regulations. The appeal also notes that most national and international statutes delineating the discretion of regulators are ambiguous about what rules of evidence ought to apply. Those statutes should be revised to ensure that the evidence for regulatory action is grounded on the standards of the scientific method, whenever feasible. When independent scientific evidence is not possible, policies and regulations should be informed by publicly debated trade-offs between socially desirable uses and social perceptions of affordable precaution. This article explores the premises, implications and actions supporting the appeal and its objectives. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

PubMed

Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

2014-12-01

Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

PubMed Central

Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

2014-01-01

Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

2010-01-01

NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

Inter-model comparison of the landscape determinants of vector-borne disease: implications for epidemiological and entomological risk modeling.

PubMed

Lorenz, Alyson; Dhingra, Radhika; Chang, Howard H; Bisanzio, Donal; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2014-01-01

Extrapolating landscape regression models for use in assessing vector-borne disease risk and other applications requires thoughtful evaluation of fundamental model choice issues. To examine implications of such choices, an analysis was conducted to explore the extent to which disparate landscape models agree in their epidemiological and entomological risk predictions when extrapolated to new regions. Agreement between six literature-drawn landscape models was examined by comparing predicted county-level distributions of either Lyme disease or Ixodes scapularis vector using Spearman ranked correlation. AUC analyses and multinomial logistic regression were used to assess the ability of these extrapolated landscape models to predict observed national data. Three models based on measures of vegetation, habitat patch characteristics, and herbaceous landcover emerged as effective predictors of observed disease and vector distribution. An ensemble model containing these three models improved precision and predictive ability over individual models. A priori assessment of qualitative model characteristics effectively identified models that subsequently emerged as better predictors in quantitative analysis. Both a methodology for quantitative model comparison and a checklist for qualitative assessment of candidate models for extrapolation are provided; both tools aim to improve collaboration between those producing models and those interested in applying them to new areas and research questions.

Landscape ecological risk assessment study in arid land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Lu; Amut, Aniwaer; Shi, Qingdong; Wang, Gary Z.

2007-09-01

The ecosystem risk assessment is an essential decision making system for predicting the reconstruction and recovery of a damaged ecosystem after intensive mankind activities. The sustainability of environment and resources of the lake ecosystem in arid districts have been paid close attention to by international communities as well as numerous experts and scholars. The ecological risk assessment offered a scientific foundation for making the decision and execution of ecological risk management. Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, is the main water source of the industrial and agricultural production as well as the local residence in Yanqi basin, Kuara city and Yuri County in the southern Xinjiang. Bosten Lake also provides a direct water source for emergency transportation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River. However, with the intensive utilizations of water and soil resources, the environmental condition in the Bosten Lake has become more and more serious. In this study, the theory and method of landscape ecological risk assessment has been practiced using 3S technologies combined with the frontier theory of landscape ecology. Defining the mainly risk resource including flood, drought, water pollution and rich nutrition of water has been evaluated based on the ecosystem risk assessment system. The main process includes five stages: regional natural resources analysis, risk receptor selection, risk sources evaluation, exposure and hazard analysis, and integrated risk assessment. Based on the risk assessment results, the environmental risk management countermeasure has been determined.

Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

Formaldehyde risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

PubMed

Jaykus, L A

1996-01-01

Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

School Suicide Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brock, Stephen E.; Louvar Reeves, Melissa A.

2018-01-01

Suicide is a leading cause of death among youth ages 10 years and older. Further, recent federal surveillance data suggest the rates of suicidal ideation and behaviors to be increasing. With these facts in mind, in this paper, we examine the school psychologist's role in suicide risk assessment; which assesses the degree to which students, who…

Evaluation and applications of the clinically significant change method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: implications for risk-change communication.

PubMed

Olver, Mark E; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Wong, Stephen C P

2015-02-01

We examined the use of the clinically significant change (CSC) method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO), and its implications for risk communication, in a combined sample of 945 treated sexual offenders from three international settings, followed up for a minimum 5 years post-release. The reliable change (RC) index was used to identify thresholds of clinically meaningful change and to create four CSC groups (already okay, recovered, improved, unchanged) based on VRS-SO dynamic scores and amount of change made. Outcome analyses demonstrated important CSC-group differences in 5-year rates of sexual and violent recidivism. However, when baseline risk was controlled via Cox regression survival analysis, the pattern and magnitude of CSC-group differences in sexual and violent recidivism changed to suggest that observed variation in recidivism base rates could be at least partly explained by pre-existing group differences in risk level. Implications for communication of risk-change information and applications to clinical practice are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Is health risk assessment unethical

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, B.L.

For persons who have followed the environmental movement in the US and in other countries, it comes as no revelation that the general public has been, and remains, quite concerned about environmental hazards. This concern has in turn led to national and local legislation that is intended to protect the environment and public health. In a parallel way, transnational public concerns have fostered international agreements on controlling such environmental hazards as shipments of hazardous wastes and ocean pollution. Over time, as governments have attempted to come to grips with controlling various environmental hazards, the development and use of health riskmore » assessment has become a well-favored practice by government and some private sector agencies. Because health risk assessment is used to ultimately manage environmental hazards that impact the well-being of people, it seems timely to raise the questions of to what extent are ethical considerations incorporated into health risk assessments and risk management actions.« less

Can we (actually) assess global risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2013-04-01

The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

2015-07-01

Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for threemore » water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.« less

Prospective mixture risk assessment and management prioritizations for river catchments with diverse land uses

PubMed Central

Brown, Colin D.; de Zwart, Dick; Diamond, Jerome; Dyer, Scott D.; Holmes, Christopher M.; Marshall, Stuart; Burton, G. Allen

2018-01-01

Abstract Ecological risk assessment increasingly focuses on risks from chemical mixtures and multiple stressors because ecosystems are commonly exposed to a plethora of contaminants and nonchemical stressors. To simplify the task of assessing potential mixture effects, we explored 3 land use–related chemical emission scenarios. We applied a tiered methodology to judge the implications of the emissions of chemicals from agricultural practices, domestic discharges, and urban runoff in a quantitative model. The results showed land use–dependent mixture exposures, clearly discriminating downstream effects of land uses, with unique chemical “signatures” regarding composition, concentration, and temporal patterns. Associated risks were characterized in relation to the land‐use scenarios. Comparisons to measured environmental concentrations and predicted impacts showed relatively good similarity. The results suggest that the land uses imply exceedances of regulatory protective environmental quality standards, varying over time in relation to rain events and associated flow and dilution variation. Higher‐tier analyses using ecotoxicological effect criteria confirmed that species assemblages may be affected by exposures exceeding no‐effect levels and that mixture exposure could be associated with predicted species loss under certain situations. The model outcomes can inform various types of prioritization to support risk management, including a ranking across land uses as a whole, a ranking on characteristics of exposure times and frequencies, and various rankings of the relative role of individual chemicals. Though all results are based on in silico assessments, the prospective land use–based approach applied in the present study yields useful insights for simplifying and assessing potential ecological risks of chemical mixtures and can therefore be useful for catchment‐management decisions. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:715–728. © 2017 The Authors

OVERVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR TOXIC AND PATHOGENIC AGENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment is a process that defines the adverse health consequences of exposure to toxic or pathogenic agents. hen used in regulatory decision making, risk assessment is an important component of risk management, which "combines the risk assessment with the directives of re...

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S

2016-11-01

The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

2016-01-01

Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

OPPT workplan risk assessment for antimony trioxide (CASRN ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This assessment will focus on the ecological hazards that may be associated with ATO use in flame retardants. Because ATO’s use in PET plastics was previously evaluated and determined to present minimal concerns for human health and the environment (EU, 2008), this use scenario will not be evaluated here. Human health risks have been evaluated previously and will be summarized in this assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Some implications of the technology assessment function for the effective public decision-making process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayo, L. H.

1971-01-01

A preliminary provisional assessment of the prospects for the establishment of an adequate technology assessment function and the implications of the assessment function for the public decision process are presented. Effects of the technology assessment function on each phase of the public decision process and briefly explored. Significant implications during the next decade are projected with respect to the following phases: invention and development of alternative means (technological configurations); evaluation, selection and promotion of preferred courses of action; and modification of statutory scheme or social action program as an outcome of continuing monitoring and appraisal.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

PubMed

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

PubMed Central

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Quantification of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast; implications for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Stephen G.; Delaney, Keith B.

2015-04-01

Our assessment of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast (i.e., the coast of British Columbia) begins with a review of the 1964 tsunami generated by The Great Alaska Earthquake (M9.2) that resulted in significant damage to coastal communities and infrastructure. In particular, the tsunami waves swept up inlets on the west coast of Vancouver Island and damaged several communities; Port Alberni suffered upwards of 5M worth of damage. At Port Alberni, the maximum tsunami wave height was estimated at 8.2 m above mean sea level and was recorded on the stream gauge on the Somass River located at about 7 m a.s.l, 6 km upstream from its mouth. The highest wave (9.75 m above tidal datum) was reported from Shields Bay, Graham Island, Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii). In addition, the 1964 tsunami was recorded on tide gauges at a number of locations on the BC coast. The 1964 signal and the magnitude and frequency of traces of other historical Pacific tsunamis (both far-field and local) are analysed in the Tofino tide gauge records and compared to tsunami traces in other tide gauges in the Pacific Basin (e.g., Miyako, Japan). Together with a review of the geological evidence for tsunami occurrence along Vancouver Island's west coast, we use this tide gauge data to develop a quantitative framework for tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific coast. In larger time scales, tsunamis are a major component of the hazard from Cascadia megathrust events. From sedimentological evidence and seismological considerations, the recurrence interval of megathrust events on the Cascadia Subduction Zone has been estimated by others at roughly 500 years. We assume that the hazard associated with a high-magnitude destructive tsunami thus has an annual frequency of roughly 1/500. Compared to other major natural hazards in western Canada this represents a very high annual probability of potentially destructive hazard that, in some coastal communities, translates into high levels of local risk

Assessment of health risks of policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk; Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen; Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidancemore » and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.« less

Conceptualization and Pilot Testing of a Core Competency-Based Training Workshop in Suicide Risk Assessment and Management: Notes From the Field.

PubMed

Cramer, Robert J; Bryson, Claire N; Eichorst, Morgam K; Keyes, Lee N; Ridge, Brittany E

2017-03-01

As professional psychology training programs and continuing education have moved toward competency based approaches, it has become equally important to develop uniform, evidence-based approaches for suicide risk assessment and management. The present article presents a workshop curriculum based on established core competencies in suicide risk assessment and management. Drawing on theories suicide risk formation, the workshop features an integration of didactic, process, and experiential components. We present pilot data from 2 small group workshops (n = 17): 1 from a clinical psychology doctoral program and 1 from a university counseling center. Workshop participation yielded increases in (a) the ability to recognize appropriate clinician responses to suicidal client statements, (b) self-perceptions of general capacity to interface with suicidal patients and mastery of the 10 core competencies, (c) factual knowledge concerning suicide risk assessment and management, and (d) the self-rated ability to assess and manage a suicidal patient. We discuss statistical and generalizability limitations as well as implications for future modification, implementation, and provision of this training method. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

PubMed Central

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. Methodology/Principal Findings We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070–2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Conclusions/Significance Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to

Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

PubMed

Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

2003-10-01

Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

New method for assessing risks of email

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

2013-03-01

E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

The hidden costs of coastal hazards: Implications for risk assessment and mitigation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kunreuther, H.; Platt, R.; Baruch, S.; Bernknopf, R.L.; Buckley, M.; Burkett, V.; Conrad, D.; Davidson, T.; Deutsch, K.; Geis, D.; Jannereth, M.; Knap, A.; Lane, H.; Ljung, G.; McCauley, M.; Mileti, D.; Miller, T.; Morrow, B.; Meyers, J.; Pielke, R.; Pratt, A.; Tripp, J.

2000-01-01

Society has limited hazard mitigation dollars to invest. Which actions will be most cost effective, considering the true range of impacts and costs incurred? In 1997, the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment began a two-year study with a panel of experts to help develop new strategies to identify and reduce the costs of weather-related hazards associated with rapidly increasing coastal development activities.The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards presents the panel's findings, offering the first in-depth study that considers the costs of coastal hazards to natural resources, social institutions, business, and the built environment. Using Hurricane Hugo, which struck South Carolina in 1989, as a case study, it provides for the first time information on the full range of economic costs caused by a major coastal hazard event. The book:describes and examines unreported, undocumented, and hidden costs such as losses due to business interruption, reduction in property values, interruption of social services, psychological trauma, damage to natural systems, and othersexamines the concepts of risk and vulnerability, and discusses conventional approaches to risk assessment and the emerging area of vulnerability assessmentrecommends a comprehensive framework for developing and implementing mitigation strategiesdocuments the human impact of Hurricane Hugo and provides insight from those who lived through it.The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards takes a structured approach to the problem of coastal hazards, offering a new framework for community-based hazard mitigation along with specific recommendations for implementation. Decisionmakers -- both policymakers and planners -- who are interested in coastal hazard issues will find the book a unique source of new information and insight, as will private-sector decisionmakers including lenders, investors, developers, and insurers of coastal property.

Ecological risk assessment conceptual model formulation for nonindigenous species.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G

2004-08-01

This article addresses the application of ecological risk assessment at the regional scale to the prediction of impacts due to invasive or nonindigenous species (NIS). The first section describes risk assessment, the decision-making process, and introduces regional risk assessment. A general conceptual model for the risk assessment of NIS is then presented based upon the regional risk assessment approach. Two diverse examples of the application of this approach are presented. The first example is based upon the dynamics of introduced plasmids into bacteria populations. The second example is the application risk assessment approach to the invasion of a coastal marine site of Cherry Point, Washington, USA by the European green crab. The lessons learned from the two examples demonstrate that assessment of the risks of invasion of NIS will have to incorporate not only the characteristics of the invasive species, but also the other stresses and impacts affecting the region of interest.

Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

PubMed

Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

2015-01-01

Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

2016-10-01

Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

IPCC Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change Risks: Implications for 1.5 and 2 C Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Oppenheimer, M.

2016-12-01

The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, which has been a cornerstone of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments since the Third Assessment Report, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change (GMT). The RFC framework was developed to inform discussions relevant to implementation of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 2 presents the Convention's long-term objective of avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The RFC framework and the associated "Burning Embers" diagram illustrating authors' risk judgments have since been widely discussed and used to inform policy decisions. For example, they informed a recent dialog between Parties to the UNFCCC and experts on the adequacy of the long-term goal of avoiding a warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, contributing to a strengthening of that goal in the recent Paris Agreement. We draw on a new review and update of the RFC's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report to discuss their implications for risks associated with GMT targets of 1.5 C and 2 C adopted in the Paris Agreement. In general, the RFCs imply that continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) would lead to high or very high risk of severe, widespread, and in some cases irreversible climate change impacts within this century. At 2°C above preindustrial, High risks are based on increasing risks to Arctic and coral reef systems, as well as increasing species extinction risks that undermine ecosystems (RFC 1), and projected increasing magnitude and likelihood of extreme weather events (RFC 2). Moderate-to-High risks are based on projections of increasing risks to crop production and water resources (RFC 3), and to the risks associated with ice sheet

GENOTOXICITY RISK ASSESSMENT: A PROPOSED CLASSIFICATION STRATEGY

EPA Science Inventory

Recent advances in genetic toxicity (mutagenicity) testing methods and in approaches to performing risk assessment are prompting a renewed effort to harmonize genotoxicity risk assessment across the world. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first published Guidelines fo...

Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

Risk assessment as standard work in design.

PubMed

Morrill, Patricia W

2013-01-01

This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

Integrating risk assessment and life cycle assessment: a case study of insulation.

PubMed

Nishioka, Yurika; Levy, Jonathan I; Norris, Gregory A; Wilson, Andrew; Hofstetter, Patrick; Spengler, John D

2002-10-01

Increasing residential insulation can decrease energy consumption and provide public health benefits, given changes in emissions from fuel combustion, but also has cost implications and ancillary risks and benefits. Risk assessment or life cycle assessment can be used to calculate the net impacts and determine whether more stringent energy codes or other conservation policies would be warranted, but few analyses have combined the critical elements of both methodologies In this article, we present the first portion of a combined analysis, with the goal of estimating the net public health impacts of increasing residential insulation for new housing from current practice to the latest International Energy Conservation Code (IECC 2000). We model state-by-state residential energy savings and evaluate particulate matter less than 2.5 microm in diameter (PM2.5), NOx, and SO2 emission reductions. We use past dispersion modeling results to estimate reductions in exposure, and we apply concentration-response functions for premature mortality and selected morbidity outcomes using current epidemiological knowledge of effects of PM2.5 (primary and secondary). We find that an insulation policy shift would save 3 x 10(14) British thermal units or BTU (3 x 10(17) J) over a 10-year period, resulting in reduced emissions of 1,000 tons of PM2.5, 30,000 tons of NOx, and 40,000 tons of SO2. These emission reductions yield an estimated 60 fewer fatalities during this period, with the geographic distribution of health benefits differing from the distribution of energy savings because of differences in energy sources, population patterns, and meteorology. We discuss the methodology to be used to integrate life cycle calculations, which can ultimately yield estimates that can be compared with costs to determine the influence of external costs on benefit-cost calculations.

A Minority Report for Social Work? The Predictive Risk Model (PRM) and the Tuituia Assessment Framework in addressing the needs of New Zealand's Vulnerable Children

PubMed Central

Oak, Eileen

2016-01-01

This article examines the viability of the Risk Predictor Model (RPM) and its counterpart the actuarial risk assessment (ARA) tool in the form of the Tuituia Assessment Framework to address child vulnerability in New Zealand. In doing so, it suggests that these types of risk-assessment tools fail to address issues of contingency and complexity at the heart of the relationship-based nature of social work practice. Such developments have considerable implications for the capacity to enhance critical reflexive practice skills, whilst the introduction of these risk tools is occurring at a time when the reflexive space is being eroded as a result of the increased regulation of practice and supervision. It is further asserted that the primary aim of such instruments is not so much to detect risk, but rather to foster professional conformity with these managerialist risk-management systems so prevalent in contemporary Western societies. PMID:27559223

Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanson, R. Karl

2005-01-01

Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

EPA Science Inventory

Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

The pediatric sepsis biomarker risk model: potential implications for sepsis therapy and biology.

PubMed

Alder, Matthew N; Lindsell, Christopher J; Wong, Hector R

2014-07-01

Sepsis remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in adult and pediatric intensive care units. Heterogeneity of demographics, comorbidities, biological mechanisms, and severity of illness leads to difficulty in determining which patients are at highest risk of mortality. Determining mortality risk is important for weighing the potential benefits of more aggressive interventions and for deciding whom to enroll in clinical trials. Biomarkers can be used to parse patients into different risk categories and can outperform current methods of patient risk stratification based on physiologic parameters. Here we review the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model that has also been modified and applied to estimate mortality risk in adult patients. We compare the two models and speculate on the biological implications of the biomarkers in patients with sepsis.

Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remington, Benjamin C.

2017-09-01

Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

Caseworker assessments of risk for recurrent maltreatment: association with case-specific risk factors and re-reports.

PubMed

Dorsey, Shannon; Mustillo, Sarah A; Farmer, Elizabeth M Z; Elbogen, Eric

2008-03-01

This article focuses on caseworkers' assessments of risk of maltreatment recurrence among families in contact with social services. Specifically, the article has two primary goals: (1) to examine the association between caseworkers' risk assessments and demographic, child, parent and family-level risk factors; and (2) to examine agreement between caseworkers' risk assessments and any subsequent report, or reports, of maltreatment. Data are from the baseline, 12-month, and 18-month assessments of the National Survey for Child and Adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW), a nationally representative sample of youth and families who were the subjects of allegations of maltreatment investigated by child welfare agencies. The sample consisted of a subset of NSCAW participants: cases with a report of child physical abuse or neglect who were not placed in out-of-home care (N=2,139). Analyses indicated that parent-level risk factors and a prior report of maltreatment were most strongly associated with caseworkers' assessments of risk for both physical abuse and neglect cases. A smaller set of factors, which varied by the type of maltreatment, were associated with a subsequent report of maltreatment. Despite some overlap in correlates of risk assessment and subsequent reports, analyses indicated that agreement between caseworkers' assessments of risk and re-reports was low. Findings suggest that although caseworkers' assessments were associated with a limited set of risk factors from the literature, few of these factors also were associated with a recurrent report of maltreatment. Correspondence between caseworkers' assessments of risk and a subsequent report of maltreatment was low, suggesting that considerable work may be needed to improve accuracy and identification of cases most at risk. This study provides information to assist caseworkers, administrators, and policymakers in thinking critically about risk assessment policies and procedures. Although caseworkers' assessments of