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Sample records for risk evaluation euroscore

  1. Comparison of original EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk models in a Turkish cardiac surgical cohort†

    PubMed Central

    Kunt, Ayse Gul; Kurtcephe, Murat; Hidiroglu, Mete; Cetin, Levent; Kucuker, Aslihan; Bakuy, Vedat; Ruchan Akar, Ahmet; Sener, Erol

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to compare additive and logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) models in calculating mortality risk in a Turkish cardiac surgical population. METHODS The current patient population consisted of 428 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between 2004 and 2012, extracted from the TurkoSCORE database. Observed and predicted mortalities were compared for the additive/logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values were calculated for these models to compare predictive power. RESULTS The mean patient age was 74.5 ± 3.9 years at the time of surgery, and 35.0% were female. For the entire cohort, actual hospital mortality was 7.9% (n = 34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.4–10.5). However, the additive EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 6.4% (P = 0.23 vs observed; 95% CI 6.2–6.6), logistic EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 7.9% (P = 0.98 vs observed; 95% CI 7.3–8.6), EuroSCORE II- predicted mortality was 1.7% (P = 0.00 vs observed; 95% CI 1.6–1.8) and STS predicted mortality was 5.8% (P = 0.10 vs observed; 95% CI 5.4–6.2). The mean predictive performance of the analysed models for the entire cohort was fair, with 0.7 (95% CI 0.60–0.79). AUC values for additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator were 0.70 (95% CI 0.60–0.79), 0.70 (95% CI 0.59–0.80), 0.72 (95% CI 0.62–0.81) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51–0.73), respectively. CONCLUSIONS EuroSCORE II significantly underestimated mortality risk for Turkish cardiac patients, whereas additive and logistic EuroSCORE and STS risk calculators were well calibrated. PMID:23403767

  2. Mortality from isolated coronary bypass surgery: a comparison of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and the EuroSCORE risk prediction algorithms.

    PubMed

    Qadir, Irfan; Salick, Muhammad Musa; Perveen, Shazia; Sharif, Hasanat

    2012-03-01

    We compared the performances of the additive European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, EuroSCORE (AES) and logistic EuroSCORE (LES) with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' risk prediction algorithm in terms of discrimination and calibration in predicting mortality in patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) at a single institution in Pakistan. Both models were applied to 380 patients, operated upon at the Aga Khan University Hospital from August 2009 to July 2010. The actual mortality was 2.89%. The mean AES of all patients was 4.36 ± 3.58%, the mean LES was 5.96 ± 9.18% and the mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons' (STS) score was 2.30 ± 4.16%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test gave a P-value of 0.801 for AES, 0.699 for LES and 0.981 for STS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.866 for AES, 0.842 for LES and 0.899 for STS. STS outperformed AES and LES both in terms of calibration and discrimination. STS, however, underestimated mortality in the top 20% of patients having an STS score >2.88, thus overall STS estimates were lower than actual mortality. We conclude that STS is a more accurate model for risk assessment as compared to additive and logistic EuroSCORE models in the Pakistani population. PMID:22184465

  3. Performance of EuroSCORE in CABG and off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting: single institution experience and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Parolari, Alessandro; Pesce, Lorenzo L.; Trezzi, Matteo; Loardi, Claudia; Kassem, Samer; Brambillasca, Claudio; Miguel, Bruno; Tremoli, Elena; Biglioli, Paolo; Alamanni, Francesco

    2009-01-01

    Aims To assess EuroSCORE performance in predicting in-hospital mortality in on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB). Methods and results Additive and logistic EuroSCORE were computed for consecutive patients undergoing CABG (n = 3440, 75%) or OPCAB (n = 1140, 25%) at our hospital from 1999 to September 2007. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) were used to describe performance and accuracy. No difference in performance between CABG and OPCAB and between additive and logistic EuroSCORE (additive EuroSCORE AUCs of 0.808 and 0.779 for CABG and OPCAB, respectively; logistic EuroSCORE AUCs of 0.813 and of 0.773 for CABG and OPCAB, respectively) was found, although a marked tendency to overpredict mortality by both models was evident. A meta-analysis of previously published data was done, and a total of eight studies representing 19 212 and 5461 patients undergoing CABG and OPCAB, respectively, met inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis confirmed similar performance of EuroSCORE in CABG and OPCAB: estimated AUCs were 0.767 and 0.766 for CABG and OPCAB, respectively, with an estimated difference of 0.001 (95% CI −0.061 to 0.063). Conclusion Additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms performed similarly, and cumulative evidence suggests comparable performance in CABG and OPCAB procedures; both risk models, however, significantly overestimated mortality. PMID:19141560

  4. Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score in Brazil: Comparison with InsCor and the EuroSCORE

    PubMed Central

    Mejía, Omar Asdrúbal Vilca; Matrangolo, Bruna La Regina; Titinger, David Provenzale; de Faria, Leandro Batisti; Dallan, Luís Roberto Palma; Galas, Filomena Regina Barbosa; Lisboa, Luiz Augusto Ferreira; Dallan, Luís Alberto Oliveira; Jatene, Fabio Biscegli

    2015-01-01

    Background Risk scores for cardiac surgery cannot continue to be neglected. Objective To assess the performance of “Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score” (ACEF Score) to predict mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery, and to compare it to other scores. Methods A prospective cohort study was carried out with the database of a Brazilian tertiary care center. A total of 2,565 patients submitted to elective surgeries between May 2007 and July 2009 were assessed. For a more detailed analysis, the ACEF Score performance was compared to the InsCor’s and EuroSCORE’s performance through correlation, calibration and discrimination tests. Results Patients were stratified into mild, moderate and severe for all models. Calibration was inadequate for ACEF Score (p = 0.046) and adequate for InsCor (p = 0.460) and EuroSCORE (p = 0.750). As for discrimination, the area under the ROC curve was questionable for the ACEF Score (0.625) and adequate for InsCor (0.744) and EuroSCORE (0.763). Conclusion Although simple to use and practical, the ACEF Score, unlike InsCor and EuroSCORE, was not accurate for predicting mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery in a Brazilian tertiary care center. PMID:26312550

  5. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-06-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D&D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D&D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D&D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D&D project level decision making process.

  6. DIETARY RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: DRES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Dietary Risk Evaluation System (DRES) estimates exposure to pesticides in the diet by combining information concerning residues on raw agricultural commodities with information on consumption of those commodities. It then compares the estimated exposure level to a toxicologi...

  7. Comparison of contemporary preoperative risk models at predicting acute kidney injury after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting: a retrospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Shao-Wei; Chang, Chih-Hsiang; Fan, Pei-Chun; Chen, Yung-Chang; Chu, Pao-Hsien; Chen, Tien-Hsing; Wu, Victor Chien-Chia; Chang, Su-Wei; Lin, Pyng-Jing; Tsai, Feng-Chun

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Acute kidney injury (AKI) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is associated with short-term and long-term adverse outcomes. The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score and Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction (ACEF) score, have been widely used for predicting the operative risk of cardiac surgery. The aim of this study is to investigate the discriminant ability among current available models in predicting postoperative AKI. Methods From January 2010 to December 2012, 353 patients who underwent isolated CABG were enrolled. The clinical characteristics, outcomes and scores of prognostic models were collected. The primary outcome was postoperative AKI, defined based on the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcome (KDIGO) Clinical Practice Guideline for AKI, in 2012. Results 102 patients (28.9%) developed postoperative AKI. For AKI prediction, EuroSCORE II, STS score and ACEF score were all good tools for stage-3 AKI. The ACEF score was shown to have satisfied discriminant ability to predict postoperative AKI with area under a receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.781±0.027, (95% CI 0.729 to 0.834, p value <0.001). Multivariate logistic analysis identified that lower ejection fraction and higher serum creatinine were independent risk factors for AKI. Conclusions The simple and extremely user-friendly ACEF score can accurately identify the risk of postoperative AKI and has shown satisfactory discriminant ability when compared with other systems. The ACEF score might be the easiest tool for predicting postoperative AKI. PMID:27354068

  8. Probabilistic Approaches for Evaluating Space Shuttle Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vesely, William

    2001-01-01

    The objectives of the Space Shuttle PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) are to: (1) evaluate mission risks; (2) evaluate uncertainties and sensitivities; (3) prioritize contributors; (4) evaluate upgrades; (5) track risks; and (6) provide decision tools. This report discusses the significance of a Space Shuttle PRA and its participants. The elements and type of losses to be included are discussed. The program and probabilistic approaches are then discussed.

  9. Risk assessment technique for evaluating research laboratories

    SciTech Connect

    Bolander, T.W.; Meale, B.M.; Eide, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    A technique has been developed to evaluate research laboratories according to risk, where risk is defined as the product of frequency and consequence. This technique was used to evaluate several laboratories at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory under the direction of the Department of Energy, Idaho Field Office to assist in the risk management of the Science and Technology Department laboratories. With this technique, laboratories can be compared according to risk, and management can use the results to make cost effective decisions associated with the operation of the facility.

  10. Risk assessment technique for evaluating research laboratories

    SciTech Connect

    Bolander, T.W.; Meale, B.M.; Eide, S.A.

    1992-09-01

    A technique has been developed to evaluate research laboratories according to risk, where risk is defined as the product of frequency and consequence. This technique was used to evaluate several laboratories at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory under the direction of the Department of Energy, Idaho Field Office to assist in the risk management of the Science and Technology Department laboratories. With this technique, laboratories can be compared according to risk, and management can use the results to make cost effective decisions associated with the operation of the facility.

  11. Cardiac Surgery Costs According to the Preoperative Risk in the Brazilian Public Health System

    PubMed Central

    Titinger, David Provenzale; Lisboa, Luiz Augusto Ferreira; Matrangolo, Bruna La Regina; Dallan, Luis Roberto Palma; Dallan, Luis Alberto Oliveira; Trindade, Evelinda Marramon; Eckl, Ivone; Kalil Filho, Roberto; Mejía, Omar Asdrúbal Vilca; Jatene, Fabio Biscegli

    2015-01-01

    Background Heart surgery has developed with increasing patient complexity. Objective To assess the use of resources and real costs stratified by risk factors of patients submitted to surgical cardiac procedures and to compare them with the values reimbursed by the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS). Method All cardiac surgery procedures performed between January and July 2013 in a tertiary referral center were analyzed. Demographic and clinical data allowed the calculation of the value reimbursed by the Brazilian SUS. Patients were stratified as low, intermediate and high-risk categories according to the EuroSCORE. Clinical outcomes, use of resources and costs (real costs versus SUS) were compared between established risk groups. Results Postoperative mortality rates of low, intermediate and high-risk EuroSCORE risk strata showed a significant linear positive correlation (EuroSCORE: 3.8%, 10%, and 25%; p < 0.0001), as well as occurrence of any postoperative complication EuroSCORE: 13.7%, 20.7%, and 30.8%, respectively; p = 0.006). Accordingly, length-of-stay increased from 20.9 days to 24.8 and 29.2 days (p < 0.001). The real cost was parallel to increased resource use according to EuroSCORE risk strata (R$ 27.116,00 ± R$ 13.928,00 versus R$ 34.854,00 ± R$ 27.814,00 versus R$ 43.234,00 ± R$ 26.009,00, respectively; p < 0.001). SUS reimbursement also increased (R$ 14.306,00 ± R$ 4.571,00 versus R$ 16.217,00 ± R$ 7.298,00 versus R$ 19.548,00 ± R$935,00; p < 0.001). However, as the EuroSCORE increased, there was significant difference (p < 0.0001) between the real cost increasing slope and the SUS reimbursement elevation per EuroSCORE risk strata. Conclusion Higher EuroSCORE was related to higher postoperative mortality, complications, length of stay, and costs. Although SUS reimbursement increased according to risk, it was not proportional to real costs. PMID:26107813

  12. Cumulative Aggregate Risk Evaluation Software

    EPA Science Inventory

    CARES is a state-of-the-art software program designed to conduct complex exposure and risk assessments for pesticides, such as the assessments required under the 1996 Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA). CARES was originally developed under the auspices of CropLife America (CLA),...

  13. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    SciTech Connect

    Martorell, S.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1992-07-20

    In nuclear power plants surveillance tests are required to detect failures in standby safety system components as a means of assuring their availability in case of an accident. However, the performance of surveillance tests at power may have adverse impact on safety as evidenced by the operating experience of the plants. The risk associated with a test includes two different aspects: (1) a positive aspect, i.e., risk contribution detected by the test, that results from the detection of failures which occur between tests and are detected by the test, and (2) a negative aspect, i.e., risk contribution caused by the test, that includes failures and degradations which are caused by the test or are related to the performance of the test. In terms of the two different risk contributions, the risk effectiveness of a test can be simply defined as follows: a test is risk effective if the risk contribution detected by the test is greater than the risk contribution caused by the test; otherwise it is risk ineffective. The methodology presentation will focus on two important kinds of negative test risk impacts, that is, the risk impacts of test-caused transients and equipment wear-out. The evaluation results of the risk effectiveness of the test will be presented in the full paper along with the risk assessment methodology and the insights from the sensitivity analysis. These constitute the core of the NUREG/CR-5775.

  14. Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the ECOTOXicology Database (ECOTOX; EVALUATION AND EFFECTIVE RISK COMMUNICATION WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS

    EPA Science Inventory

    To explore a number of questions in the area of risk communications, the Interagency Task Force on Environmental Cancer and Heart and Lung Disease, held a Workshop on Evaluation and Effective Risk Communication which brought together experts from academia, government agencies, an...

  15. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    SciTech Connect

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  16. Preoperative Evaluation: Estimation of Pulmonary Risk.

    PubMed

    Lakshminarasimhachar, Anand; Smetana, Gerald W

    2016-03-01

    Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) are common after major non-thoracic surgery and associated with significant morbidity and high cost of care. A number of risk factors are strong predictors of PPCs. The overall goal of the preoperative pulmonary evaluation is to identify these potential, patient and procedure-related risks and optimize the health of the patients before surgery. A thorough clinical examination supported by appropriate laboratory tests will help guide the clinician to provide optimal perioperative care. PMID:26927740

  17. Abandoned metal mine stability risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Bétournay, Marc C

    2009-10-01

    The abandoned mine legacy is critical in many countries around the world, where mine cave-ins and surface subsidence disruptions are perpetual risks that can affect the population, infrastructure, historical legacies, land use, and the environment. This article establishes abandoned metal mine failure risk evaluation approaches and quantification techniques based on the Canadian mining experience. These utilize clear geomechanics considerations such as failure mechanisms, which are dependent on well-defined rock mass parameters. Quantified risk is computed using probability of failure (probabilistics using limit-equilibrium factors of safety or applicable numerical modeling factor of safety quantifications) times a consequence impact value. Semi-quantified risk can be based on failure-case-study-based empirical data used in calculating probability of failure, and personal experience can provide qualified hazard and impact consequence assessments. The article provides outlines for land use and selection of remediation measures based on risk. PMID:19645755

  18. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    PubMed

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications. PMID:23113627

  19. Evaluating Potential Health Risks in Relocatable Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katchen, Mark; LaPierre, Adrienne; Charlin, Cary; Brucker, Barry; Ferguson, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Only limited data exist describing potential exposures to chemical and biological agents when using portable classrooms or outlining how to assess and reduce associated health risks. Evaluating indoor air quality involves examining ventilating rates, volatile organic compounds, and microbiologicals. Open communication among key stakeholders is…

  1. Evaluation of health risks for contaminated aquifers.

    PubMed Central

    Piver, W T; Jacobs, T L; Medina, M A

    1997-01-01

    This review focuses on progress in the development of transport models for heterogeneous contaminated aquifers, the use of predicted contaminant concentrations in groundwater for risk assessment for heterogeneous human populations, and the evaluation of aquifer remediation technologies. Major limitations and areas for continuing research for all methods presented in this review are identified. Images Figure 2. PMID:9114282

  2. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  3. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. PMID:26739372

  4. Evaluating risk propensity using an objective instrument.

    PubMed

    Sueiro Abad, Manuel J; Sánchez-Iglesias, Ivan; Moncayo de Tella, Alejandra

    2011-05-01

    Risk propensity is the stable tendency to choose options with a lower probability of success, but greater rewards. Its evaluation has been approached from various perspectives: from self-report questionnaires to objective tests. Self-report questionnaires have often been criticized due to interference from voluntary and involuntary biases, in addition to their lack of predictive value. Objective tests, on the other hand, require resources that make them difficult to administer to large samples. This paper presents an easy-to-administer, 30-item risk propensity test. Each item is itself an objective test describing a hypothetical situation in which the subject must choose between three options, each with a different gain function but equivalent in expected value. To assess its psychometric fit, the questionnaire was administered to 222 subjects, and we performed a test of its reliability as well as exploratory factor analysis. The results supported a three-factor model of risk (Sports and Gambling, Long-term Plans, and Loss Management). After making the necessary adjustments and incorporating a global factor of risk propensity, confirmatory factor analysis was done, revealing that the data exhibited adequate goodness of fit. PMID:21568196

  5. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  6. Production Risk Evaluation Program (PREP) - summary

    SciTech Connect

    Kjeldgaard, E.A.; Saloio, J.H.; Vannoni, M.G.

    1997-03-01

    Nuclear weapons have been produced in the US since the early 1950s by a network of contractor-operated Department of Energy (DOE) facilities collectively known as the Nuclear Weapon Complex (NWC). Recognizing that the failure of an essential process might stop weapon production for a substantial period of time, the DOE Albuquerque Operations office initiated the Production Risk Evaluation Program (PREP) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to assess quantitatively the potential for serious disruptions in the NWC weapon production process. PREP was conducted from 1984-89. This document is an unclassified summary of the effort.

  7. Evaluation of residue drum storage safety risks

    SciTech Connect

    Conner, W.V.

    1994-06-17

    A study was conducted to determine if any potential safety problems exist in the residue drum backlog at the Rocky Flats Plant. Plutonium residues stored in 55-gallon drums were packaged for short-term storage until the residues could be processed for plutonium recovery. These residues have now been determined by the Department of Energy to be waste materials, and the residues will remain in storage until plans for disposal of the material can be developed. The packaging configurations which were safe for short-term storage may not be safe for long-term storage. Interviews with Rocky Flats personnel involved with packaging the residues reveal that more than one packaging configuration was used for some of the residues. A tabulation of packaging configurations was developed based on the information obtained from the interviews. A number of potential safety problems were identified during this study, including hydrogen generation from some residues and residue packaging materials, contamination containment loss, metal residue packaging container corrosion, and pyrophoric plutonium compound formation. Risk factors were developed for evaluating the risk potential of the various residue categories, and the residues in storage at Rocky Flats were ranked by risk potential. Preliminary drum head space gas sampling studies have demonstrated the potential for formation of flammable hydrogen-oxygen mixtures in some residue drums.

  8. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    SciTech Connect

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user’s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  9. Risk Evaluation, Driving, and Adolescents: A Typology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harre, Niki

    2000-01-01

    Presents a typology outlining five psychological risk states that may be experienced by adolescent drivers. Identifies the habitually cautious driving and active risk avoidance states as desirable from a traffic safety viewpoint. Identifies reduced risk perception, acceptance of risk at a cost, and risk seeking states as undesirable. Examines…

  10. The Children, Youth, and Families at Risk (CYFAR) Evaluation Collaboration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marek, Lydia I.; Byrne, Richard A. W.; Marczak, Mary S.; Betts, Sherry C.; Mancini, Jay A.

    1999-01-01

    The Cooperative Extension Service's Children, Youth, and Families at Risk initiative is being assessed by the Evaluation Collaboration's three projects: state-strengthening evaluation project (resources to help states evaluate community programs); NetCon (evaluation of electronic and other networks); and National Youth at Risk Sustainability Study…

  11. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakagemore » simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user’s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.« less

  12. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  13. RISK MANAGEMENT EVALUATION FOR CONCENTRATED ANIMAL FEEDING OPERATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) developed a Risk Management Evaluation (RME) to provide information needed to help plan future research in the Laboratory dealing with the environmental impact of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Agriculture...

  14. Risk Evaluation of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals

    PubMed Central

    Gioiosa, Laura; Palanza, Paola; vom Saal, Frederick S.

    2015-01-01

    We review here our studies on early exposure to low doses of the estrogenic endocrine-disrupting chemical bisphenol A (BPA) on behavior and metabolism in CD-1 mice. Mice were exposed in utero from gestation day (GD) 11 to delivery (prenatal exposure) or via maternal milk from birth to postnatal day 7 (postnatal exposure) to 10 µg/kg body weight/d of BPA or no BPA (controls). Bisphenol A exposure resulted in long-term disruption of sexually dimorphic behaviors. Females exposed to BPA pre- and postnatally showed increased anxiety and behavioral profiles similar to control males. We also evaluated metabolic effects in prenatally exposed adult male offspring of dams fed (from GD 9 to 18) with BPA at doses ranging from 5 to 50 000 µg/kg/d. The males showed an age-related significant change in a number of metabolic indexes ranging from food intake to glucose regulation at BPA doses below the no observed adverse effect level (5000 µg/kg/d). Consistent with prior findings, low but not high BPA doses produced significant effects for many outcomes. These findings provide further evidence of the potential risks that developmental exposure to low doses of the endocrine disrupter BPA may pose to human health, with fetuses and infants being highly vulnerable. PMID:26740806

  15. Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success

    PubMed Central

    Balian, John D.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS)/risk minimization programs as market access enablers. This fully integrated risk-management paradigm creates exciting opportunities for newer tools, techniques, and approaches to more successfully optimize product development, approval, and commercialization, with patients as the ultimate beneficiaries. PMID:25083193

  16. Evaluating microbiological risks of biosolids land application

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The transmission of pathogens by land application of untreated human and animal wastes has been known for more than 100 years. The QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) process involves four basic steps: pathogen identification, exposure assessment, dose-response and risk characterization. ...

  17. Modelling public risk evaluation of natural hazards: a conceptual approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plattner, Th.

    2005-04-01

    In recent years, the dealing with natural hazards in Switzerland has shifted away from being hazard-oriented towards a risk-based approach. Decreasing societal acceptance of risk, accompanied by increasing marginal costs of protective measures and decreasing financial resources cause an optimization problem. Therefore, the new focus lies on the mitigation of the hazard's risk in accordance with economical, ecological and social considerations. This modern proceeding requires an approach in which not only technological, engineering or scientific aspects of the definition of the hazard or the computation of the risk are considered, but also the public concerns about the acceptance of these risks. These aspects of a modern risk approach enable a comprehensive assessment of the (risk) situation and, thus, sound risk management decisions. In Switzerland, however, the competent authorities suffer from a lack of decision criteria, as they don't know what risk level the public is willing to accept. Consequently, there exists a need for the authorities to know what the society thinks about risks. A formalized model that allows at least a crude simulation of the public risk evaluation could therefore be a useful tool to support effective and efficient risk mitigation measures. This paper presents a conceptual approach of such an evaluation model using perception affecting factors PAF, evaluation criteria EC and several factors without any immediate relation to the risk itself, but to the evaluating person. Finally, the decision about the acceptance Acc of a certain risk i is made by a comparison of the perceived risk Ri,perc with the acceptable risk Ri,acc.

  18. Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about

  19. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

  20. Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

  1. Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Leonardo Sinnott; Caramori, Paulo Ricardo Avancini; Nunes Filho, Antonio Carlos Bacelar; Katz, Marcelo; Guaragna, João Carlos Vieira da Costa; Lemos, Pedro; Lima, Valter; Abizaid, Alexandre; Tarasoutchi, Flavio; de Brito Jr, Fabio S.

    2015-01-01

    Background Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge. Objectives To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC)]. Results The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05). Conclusions In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required. PMID:26247244

  2. Evaluation of perioperative risk in elderly patients.

    PubMed

    Aubrun, F; Gazon, M; Schoeffler, M; Benyoub, K

    2012-05-01

    From a medical point of view, aging is characterized by a potential failure to maintain homeostasis under conditions of physiological stress. This failure is associated with an increase in vulnerability. Physiological changes associated with aging are progressive but concomitant injury or diseases may rapidly worsen the health status of the patient. Increasing age independently predicts morbidity and mortality. Hypertension and dyspnea are probably two of the most frequent risk factors in elderly patients. The history of the elderly patient should assess functional status, including cardiovascular reserve sufficient to withstand very stressful operations. The type of surgery has important implications for perioperative risk and emergency surgery, particularly in the elderly, is associated with a high risk of morbidity. Elderly patients who are otherwise acceptable surgical candidates should not be denied surgery based solely on their age and concerns for postoperative renal, cardiovascular, cognitive or pulmonary complications. Renal impairment becomes more prevalent with advancing age as the glomerular filtration rate decreases. The surgical site is the single most important predictor of pulmonary complications. Concerning postoperative comfort and neurological complications, age is the highest risk factor for developing dementia. Pain is underassessed and undermanaged. The elderly are at higher risk of adverse consequences from unrelieved or undertreated pain. PMID:22269928

  3. Evaluating the benefits of risk prevention initiatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    The likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, are increasing in many countries because of changes in climate and land-use. This presentation illustrates some preliminary results of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of risk prevention measures, carried out within the European FP7 KULTURisk project. The study is performed by using a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales. In particular, the benefits of state-of-the-art prevention initiatives, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural measures, are showed. Lastly, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, is highlighted.

  4. Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both

  5. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  6. EVALUATING RISK IN OLDER ADULTS USING PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rapid growth in the number of older Americans has many implications for public health, including the need to better understand the risks posed by environmental exposures to older adults. An important element for evaluating risk is the understanding of the doses of environment...

  7. ASSESSMENT TOOLS FOR THE EVALUATION OF RISK (ASTER)

    EPA Science Inventory

    ASTER (ASsessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division - Duluth (MED-Duluth) to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the AQUIRE (AQUatic toxicity Information REtrieval) to...

  8. Evaluation of Risk from Contaminants Migrating by Groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    AndričEvić, Roko; Cvetković, Vladimir

    1996-03-01

    The general formulation of the environmental risk problem captures the entire process of identifying the source term of the risk agent, its fate and transport through porous media, estimation of human exposure, and conversion of such exposure into the risk level. The contaminant fate and transport is modeled using the solute flux formulation evaluated with its first two moments, which explicitly account for the spatial variability of the velocity field, sorption properties, and parametric uncertainty through the first-order analysis. The risk level is quantified on the basis of carcinogenicity using the risk factor (which describes the risk per unit dose or unit intake) employed to the total doses for individuals potentially consuming radionuclide-contaminated groundwater. As a result of the probabilistic formulation in the solute flux and uncertainty in the water intake and dose-response functions, the total risk level is expressed as a distribution rather than a single estimate. The results indicate that the geologic heterogeneity and uncertainty in the sorption estimate are the two most important factors for the risk evaluation from the physical and chemical processes, while the mean risk factor is a crucial parameter in the risk formulation.

  9. The risk-adjusted cost evaluation of electric resource alternatives

    SciTech Connect

    Duane, T.P.

    1989-01-01

    Partial deregulation of the electric utility industry has occurred under the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA), which shifts the balance of both costs and risks between rate payers and electric utilities. Cost comparisons of potential electric resource Alternatives currently rely on techniques which do not explicitly incorporate risk consideration. This reflects the traditional role of regulation for rate stabilization. Risk-averse residential rate payers with low demand elasticities may highly value price risk reduction, but risk is not explicitly considered by present planning systems. There is a need to quantify the value of such price risk reduction. This research attempts to develop a Risk-Adjusted Cost Evaluation (RACE) methodology for direct comparisons of competing alternatives by a single risk-adjusted cost criterion. Methodologies have previously been developed for risk pricing in financial and commodities markets, and those techniques are evaluated for extension to the electricity market problem. Each has important deficiencies in the institutional context of electricity markets under PURPA; each also offers important insights for development of a simplified RACE methodology synthesizing those models. The methodology is applied to a large California utility, and major implementation problems are identified. The approach requires strict limiting conditions, and price risk reduction does not have a significant value to residential customers of PG and E. This may be less true for less well-diversified utilities, and several conditions are identified where more detailed assessment of risk implications is warranted. Future risk analyses research should instead focus on large, asymmetric risks. Suggestions are made for assessment of such risks through an insurance market metaphor and decision analysis methods.

  10. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    PubMed Central

    Hines, Ronald N.; Sargent, Dana; Autrup, Herman; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Brent, Robert L.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A.; Juberg, Daland R.; Laurent, Christian; Luebke, Robert; Olejniczak, Klaus; Portier, Christopher J.; Slikker, William

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a “tool chest” of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of the pediatric population. The Health and Environmental Sciences Institute Subcommittee on Risk Assessment of Sensitive Populations evaluated key references in the area of pediatric risk to identify a spectrum of methodological approaches. These approaches are considered in this article for their potential to be extrapolated for the identification and assessment of other sensitive populations. Recommendations as to future research needs and/or alternate methodological considerations are also made. PMID:19770482

  11. Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Microsimulation models are an important tool for estimating the comparative effectiveness of interventions through prediction of individual-level disease outcomes for a hypothetical population. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions targeted toward high risk groups, the mechanism by which risk factors influence the natural history of disease must be specified. We propose a method for evaluating these risk factor assumptions as part of model-building. Methods We used simulation studies to examine the impact of risk factor assumptions on the relative rate (RR) of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality for a cohort with a risk factor compared to a cohort without the risk factor using an extension of the CRC-SPIN model for colorectal cancer. We also compared the impact of changing age at initiation of screening colonoscopy for different risk mechanisms. Results Across CRC-specific risk factor mechanisms, the RR of CRC incidence and mortality decreased (towards one) with increasing age. The rate of change in RRs across age groups depended on both the risk factor mechanism and the strength of the risk factor effect. Increased non-CRC mortality attenuated the effect of CRC-specific risk factors on the RR of CRC when both were present. For each risk factor mechanism, earlier initiation of screening resulted in more life years gained, though the magnitude of life years gained varied across risk mechanisms. Conclusions Simulation studies can provide insight into both the effect of risk factor assumptions on model predictions and the type of data needed to calibrate risk factor models. PMID:21899767

  12. Novel methods to evaluate fracture risk models

    PubMed Central

    Donaldson, M.G.; Cawthon, P. M.; Schousboe, J.T.; Ensrud, K.E.; Lui, L.Y.; Cauley, J.A.; Hillier, T.A.; Taylor, B.C.; Hochberg, M.C.; Bauer, D.C.; Cummings, S.R.

    2013-01-01

    Fracture prediction models help identify individuals at high risk who may benefit from treatment. Area Under the Curve (AUC) is used to compare prediction models. However, the AUC has limitations and may miss important differences between models. Novel reclassification methods quantify how accurately models classify patients who benefit from treatment and the proportion of patients above/below treatment thresholds. We applied two reclassification methods, using the NOF treatment thresholds, to compare two risk models: femoral neck BMD and age (“simple model”) and FRAX (”FRAX model”). The Pepe method classifies based on case/non-case status and examines the proportion of each above and below thresholds. The Cook method examines fracture rates above and below thresholds. We applied these to the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. There were 6036 (1037 fractures) and 6232 (389 fractures) participants with complete data for major osteoporotic and hip fracture respectively. Both models for major osteoporotic fracture (0.68 vs. 0.69) and hip fracture (0.75 vs. 0.76) had similar AUCs. In contrast, using reclassification methods, each model classified a substantial number of women differently. Using the Pepe method, the FRAX model (vs. simple model), missed treating 70 (7%) cases of major osteoporotic fracture but avoided treating 285 (6%) non-cases. For hip fracture, the FRAX model missed treating 31 (8%) cases but avoided treating 1026 (18%) non-cases. The Cook method (both models, both fracture outcomes) had similar fracture rates above/below the treatment thresholds. Compared with the AUC, new methods provide more detailed information about how models classify patients. PMID:21351143

  13. Primer for evaluating ecological risk at petroleum release sites.

    PubMed

    Claff, R

    1999-02-01

    Increasingly, risk-based approaches are being used to guide decision making at sites such as service stations and petroleum product terminals, where petroleum products have been inadvertently released to the soil. For example, the API Decision Support System software, DSS, evaluates site human health risk along six different routes of exposure. The American Society for Testing and Materials' Risk-Based Corrective Action (RBCA) standard, ASTM 1739, establishes a tiered framework for evaluating petroleum release sites on the basis of human health risk. Though much of the risk assessment focus has been on human health risk, regulatory agencies recognize that protection of human health may not fully protect the environment; and EPA has developed guidance on identifying ecological resources to be protected through risk-based decision making. Not every service station or petroleum product terminal site warrants a detailed ecological risk assessment. In some cases, a simple preliminary assessment will provide sufficient information for decision making. Accordingly, the American Petroleum Institute (API) is developing a primer for site managers, to assist them in conducting this preliminary assessment, and in deciding whether more detailed ecological risk assessments are warranted. The primer assists the site manager in identifying relevant ecological receptors and habitats, in identifying chemicals and exposure pathways of concern, in developing a conceptual model of the site to guide subsequent actions, and in identifying conditions that may warrant immediate response. PMID:10189585

  14. Rape prevention with college men: evaluating risk status.

    PubMed

    Stephens, Kari A; George, William H

    2009-06-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual aggression, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and behavioral indicators, measured across three time points. Positive effects are found for rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual aggression, and behavioral intentions to rape. Only rape myth acceptance and victim empathy effects sustain at the 5-week follow-up. High-risk men are generally unaffected by the intervention although low-risk men produced larger effects than the entire sample. Results suggest rape prevention studies must assess risk status moderation effects to maximize prevention for high-risk men. More research is needed to develop effective rape prevention with men who are at high risk to rape. PMID:18591366

  15. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  16. Injury risk evaluation in sport climbing.

    PubMed

    Neuhof, A; Hennig, F F; Schöffl, I; Schöffl, V

    2011-10-01

    The aim of this study was to quantify and rate acute sport climbing injuries. Acute sport climbing injuries occurring from 2002 to 2006 were retrospectively assessed with a standardized web based questionnaire. A total number of 1962 climbers reported 699 injuries, which is equivalent to 0.2 injuries per 1 000 h of sport participation. Most (74.4%) of the injuries were of minor severity rated NACA I or NACA II. Injury distribution between the upper (42.6%) and lower extremities (41.3%) was similar, with ligament injuries, contusions and fractures being the most common injury types. Years of climbing experience (p<0.01), difficulty level (p<0.01), climbing time per week during summer (p<0.01) and winter (p<0.01) months were correlated with the injury rate. Age (p<0.05 (p=0.034)), years of climbing experience (p<0.01) and average climbing level (p<0.01) were correlated to the injury severity rated through NACA scores. The risk of acute injuries per 1 000 h of sport participation in sport climbing was lower than in previous studies on general rock climbing and higher than in studies on indoor climbing. In order to perform inter-study comparisons of future studies on climbing injuries, the use of a systematic and standardized scoring system (UIAA score) is essential. PMID:21913158

  17. Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1994-03-01

    In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis.

  18. Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Zhihua; Chen, Zhihe; Chen, Xiaohong; He, Peiying

    2016-05-15

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness. PMID:26897578

  19. Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

    SciTech Connect

    MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P. ); Morgan, M.G. )

    1994-10-01

    Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs about the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.

  20. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    PubMed Central

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for safety (46.1%), exhibited greater comprehension of the health risks of smoking and were more likely (48.5%) than other participants (33.6%) to report quit intentions. Risk perceptions partially mediated the relationship between FDA evaluation belief and quit intentions. Conclusions These findings highlight the need for proactive, effective communication to the public about the aims of new tobacco product regulations. PMID:22251767

  1. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  2. Risk evaluation of liquefaction on the site of Damien (Haiti)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jean, B. J.; Boisson, D.; Thimus, J.; Schroeder, C.

    2013-12-01

    Under the proposed relocation of all faculties to the campus of Damien, owned by Université d'Etat d'Haïti (UEH), the Unité de Recherche en Géotechnique (URGéo) of the Faculté des Sciences (FDS) of UEH conducted several operations whose objective was to evaluate the risk of liquefaction on this site. This abstract presents a comprehensive and coherent manner the entire processus of assessing the risk of liquefaction. This evaluation was conducted mainly from seismic thechniques, laboratory tests and the response of a one-dimensional soil column. Then, we summarize the results of this evaluation on the various techniques through synthetic maps interpretations of MASW 1D and H/V and also measures on site response to seismic loading from the SPT test applied to evaluation of liquefaction potential.

  3. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flory, S. Luke; Lorentz, Kimberly A.; Gordon, Doria R.; Sollenberger, Lynn E.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions.

  4. 77 FR 61446 - Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-09

    ... COMMISSION Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors..., ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors.'' DATES: Submit comments by... No. ML081430087) concerning the review of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information and...

  5. Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...

  6. Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

  7. A risk methodology to evaluate sensitvity of plant risk to human errors

    SciTech Connect

    Samanta, P.; Wong, S.; Higgins, J.; Haber, S.; Luckas, W.

    1988-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of sensitivity of plant risk parameters, namely the core melt frequency and the accident sequence frequencies, to the human errors involved in various aspects of nuclear power plant operations. Results are provided using the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment model as an example application of the risk methodology described herein. Sensitivity analyses in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) involve three areas: (1) a determination of the set of input parameters; in this case, various categories of human errors signifying aspects of plant operation, (2) the range over which the input parameters vary, and (3) an assessment of the sensitivity of the plant risk parameters to the input parameters which, in this case, consist of all postulated human errors, or categories of human errors. The methodology presents a categorization scheme where human errors are categorized in terms of types of activity, location, personnel involved, etc., to relate the significance of sensitivity of risk parameters to specific aspects of human performance in the nuclear plant. Ranges of variability for human errors have been developed considering the various known causes of uncertainty in human error probability estimates in PRAs. The sensitivity of the risk parameters are assessed using the event/fault tree methodology of the PRA. The results of the risk-based sensitivity evaluation using the Oconee-3 PRA as an example show the quantitative impact on the plant risk level due to variations in human error probabilities. The relative effects of various human error categories and human error sorts within the categories are also presented to identify and characterize significant human errors for effective risk management in nuclear power plant operational activities. 8 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.

  8. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    PubMed

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. PMID:26491992

  9. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

    PubMed

    Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  10. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  11. Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part VIII: Risk, Risk Reduction, Risk Management, and Capacity Building.

    PubMed

    Birnbaum, Marvin L; Loretti, Alessandro; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P

    2016-06-01

    There is a cascade of risks associated with a hazard evolving into a disaster that consists of the risk that: (1) a hazard will produce an event; (2) an event will cause structural damage; (3) structural damage will create functional damages and needs; (4) needs will create an emergency (require use of the local response capacity); and (5) the needs will overwhelm the local response capacity and result in a disaster (ie, the need for outside assistance). Each step along the continuum/cascade can be characterized by its probability of occurrence and the probability of possible consequences of its occurrence, and each risk is dependent upon the preceding occurrence in the progression from a hazard to a disaster. Risk-reduction measures are interventions (actions) that can be implemented to: (1) decrease the risk that a hazard will manifest as an event; (2) decrease the amounts of structural and functional damages that will result from the event; and/or (3) increase the ability to cope with the damage and respond to the needs that result from an event. Capacity building increases the level of resilience by augmenting the absorbing and/or buffering and/or response capacities of a community-at-risk. Risks for some hazards vary by the context in which they exist and by the Societal System(s) involved. Birnbaum ML , Loretti A , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part VIII: risk, risk reduction, risk management, and capacity building. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):300-308. PMID:27025980

  12. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665

  13. Evaluating the Risks: A Bernoulli Process Model of HIV Infection and Risk Reduction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pinkerton, Steven D.; Abramson, Paul R.

    1993-01-01

    A Bernoulli process model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is used to evaluate infection risks associated with various sexual behaviors (condom use, abstinence, or monogamy). Results suggest that infection is best mitigated through measures that decrease infectivity, such as condom use. (SLD)

  14. 78 FR 30313 - Standardizing and Evaluating Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-22

    ... standardization and assessment of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for drug and biological... standardization and evaluation, FDA will hold a public meeting to give stakeholders, including health care... number for the public meeting as follows: ``Docket No. FDA-2013-N-0502, ``Standardization and...

  15. Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

    PubMed Central

    Schuetz, Philipp; Huber, Andreas; Müller, Beat; Maisano, Francesco; Taramasso, Maurizio; Moarof, Igal; Obeid, Slayman; Stähli, Barbara E.; Cahenzly, Martin; Binder, Ronald K.; Liebetrau, Christoph; Möllmann, Helge; Kim, Won-Keun; Hamm, Christian; Lüscher, Thomas F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population. Objectives We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population. Methods We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%). Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l) had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0–26.0, P < 0.01), whereas patients with EuroSCORE II scores above the 75th percentile (> 6.8) only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8–5.6, P = 0.13). The Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45–0.82) for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–0.92, P = 0.01). In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1–31.3), P <0.01) and improved the model’s net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28–1.59). These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort. Conclusions Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis. PMID

  16. Rapid Risk-Based Evaluation of Competing Conceptual Designs

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Butner, J.M.

    1999-08-22

    In this paper, the authors have shown how a qualitative analysis can provide good input to a risk reduction design problem. Traditionally qualitative analyses such as the FMEA can be supplemented by qualitative fault trees and event trees to produce logic models of the accident sequences for the different design options. These models can be compared using rule-based manipulations of qualitative branch point probabilities. A qualitative evaluation of other considerations such as collateral safety effects, operational impacts and worker-safety impacts can provide a more complete picture of the trade-off between options. The authors believe that their risk-reduction analysis approach that combines logic models with qualitative and possibility metrics provides an excellent tool for incorporating safety concerns rapidly and effectively into a conceptual design evaluation.

  17. Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.

    2006-01-01

    We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.

  18. Evaluation of potential risks from ash disposal site leachate

    SciTech Connect

    Mills, W.B.; Loh, J.Y.; Bate, M.C.; Johnson, K.M.

    1999-04-01

    A risk-based approach is used to evaluate potential human health risks associated with a discharge from an ash disposal site into a small stream. The RIVRISK model was used to estimate downstream concentrations and corresponding risks. The modeling and risk analyses focus on boron, the constituent of greatest potential concern to public health at the site investigated, in Riddle Run, Pennsylvania. Prior to performing the risk assessment, the model is validated by comparing observed and predicted results. The comparison is good and an uncertainty analysis is provided to explain the comparison. The hazard quotient (HQ) for boron is predicted to be greater than 1 at presently regulated compliance points over a range of flow rates. The reference dose (RfD) currently recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) was used for the analyses. However, the toxicity of boron as expressed by the RfD is now under review by both the U.S. EPA and the World Health Organization. Alternative reference doses being examined would produce predicted boron hazard quotients of less than 1 at nearly all flow conditions.

  19. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    PubMed Central

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  20. Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2008-01-01

    Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk

  1. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    PubMed

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices. PMID:22171604

  2. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    SciTech Connect

    Sanzo, D.L.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1993-11-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated the nuclear power plant aging research (NPAR) program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. The purpose of this review is to survey the work conducted to address the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs), as well as the associated data bases. The review takes a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessment (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. A preliminary framework is identified for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA, including the identification of needed data for such an integration.

  3. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    SciTech Connect

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M.; Spinney P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  4. USING BIOASSAYS TO EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF EDC RISK MANAGEMENT METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In Superfund risk management research, the performance of risk management techniques is typically evaluated by measuring "the concentrations of the chemicals of concern before and after risk management efforts. However, using bioassays and chemical data provides a more robust und...

  5. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleury, Dominique; Bomfim, João A. S.; Metz, Sébastien; Bouillard, Jacques X.; Brignon, Jean-Marc

    2011-07-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  6. Food-chain contamination evaluations in ecological risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Linder, G.

    1994-12-31

    Food-chain models have become increasingly important within the ecological risk assessment process. This is the case particularly when acute effects are not readily apparent, or the contaminants of concern are not readily detoxified, have a high likelihood for partitioning into lipids, or have specific target organs or tissues that may increase their significance in evaluating their potential adverse effects. An overview of food-chain models -- conceptual, theoretical, and empirical -- will be considered through a series of papers that will focus on their application within the ecological risk assessment process. Whether a food-chain evaluation is being developed to address relatively simple questions related to chronic effects of toxicants on target populations, or whether a more complex food-web model is being developed to address questions related to multiple-trophic level transfers of toxicants, the elements within the food chain contamination evaluation can be generalized to address the mechanisms of toxicant accumulation in individual organisms. This can then be incorporated into more elaborate models that consider these organismal-level processes within the context of a species life-history or community-level responses that may be associated with long-term exposures.

  7. Evaluation of data for Sinkhole-development risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Upchurch, Sam B.; Littlefield, James R.

    1988-10-01

    Before risk assessments for sinkhole damage and indemnification are developed, a data base must be created to predict the occurrence and distribution of sinkholes. This database must be evaluated in terms of the following questions: (1) are available records of modern sinkhole development adequate, (2) can the distribution of ancient sinks be used for predictive purposes, and (3) at what areal scale must sinkhole occurrences be evaluated for predictive and risk analysis purposes? Twelve 7.5' quadrangles with varying karst development in Hillsborough County, Florida provide insight into these questions. The area includes 179 modern sinks that developed between 1964 and 1985 and 2,303 ancient sinks. The sinks occur in urban, suburban, agricultural, and major forest wetland areas. The number of ancient sinks ranges from 0.1 to 3.2/km2 and averages 1.1/km2 for the entire area. The quadrangle area occupied by ancient sinks ranges from 0.3 to 10.2 percent. The distribution of ancient sinkholes within a quadrangle ranges from 0 to over 25 percent of the land surface. In bare karst areas, the sinks are localized along major lineaments, especially at lineament intersections. Where there is covered karst, ancient sinks may be obscured. Modern sinkholes did not uniformly through time, they ranged from 0 to 29/yr. The regional occurrence rate is 7.6/yr. Most were reported in urban or suburban areas and their locations coincide with the lineament-controlled areas of ancient karst. Moving-average analysis indicates that the distribution of modern sinks is highly localized and ranges from 0 to 1.9/km2. Chi-square tests show that the distribution of ancient sinks in bare karst areas significantly predicts the locations of modern sinks. In areas of covered karst, the locations of ancient sinkholes do not predict modern sinks. It appears that risk-assessment models for sinkhole development can use the distribution of ancient sinks where bare karst is present. In covered karst areas

  8. Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

    2013-07-01

    Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help

  9. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures.

  10. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with First Episode Febrile Seizure

    PubMed Central

    Sharawat, Indar Kumar; Singh, Jitender; Singh, Amitabh

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Febrile seizure (FS) is the single most common type of seizure seen in children between 6 months to 5 years of age. The purpose of our study was to identify the risk factors associated with the first episode of febrile seizures, which would help in the better management and preventive measures in children at risk for FS episodes. Aim To evaluate the risk factors associated with the first episode of febrile seizures in Indian children. Materials and Methods This was a hospital based, case control study. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with the first FS episode in children. Seventy (70) children between age 6 months to 5 years with their first episode of FS were compared with 70 children with fever but without seizures based on various risk factors. Results The mean age was 24.90±16.11 months in cases and 26.34±16.93 months in controls. Male: female ratio was 2:1. A positive family history was found in 31.4% of first degree and 11.4% in second degree relatives. Mean maximum temperature was 102.06±1.1°F and URI (upper respiratory infection) was most common cause of fever. Antenatal complication was significantly higher in the case group. RBC (Red Blood Cells) indices like lower mean haemoglobin, MCV (Mean Corpuscular Volume), MCH (Mean Corpuscular Haemoglobin concentration) and higher RDW (Red Cell Distribution Width) values were seen in patients. Serum sodium, Serum calcium and random blood sugar values of the cases were significantly lower than those of controls (p<0.05). Conclusion Our study shows that male gender, family history of febrile seizures, peak body temperature, underlying cause of fever, antenatal complications, low serum calcium, sodium, blood sugar and microcytic hypochromic anaemia are the risk factors associated with the occurrence of first episode of febrile seizure and, thus, preventive measures in removing these risk factors could lead to a decrease in incidence of FS. PMID:27437319

  11. Evaluation of risk factor reduction in a European City Network.

    PubMed

    Farrington, Jill L; Faskunger, Johan; Mackiewicz, Karolina

    2015-06-01

    There is a substantial and growing burden of premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases (NCDs) globally. This paper evaluates the preventive efforts of the WHO European Healthy Cities Network during its fifth phase (2009-13), specifically for four behavioural risk factors (tobacco use, alcohol abuse, unhealthy diet and physical inactivity). Drawing on case studies, questionnaire responses and other materials, it notes which cities were involved, what worked and did not, the triggers for action, challenges met and lessons learnt. Few cities appeared to have taken comprehensive approaches to NCD prevention across multiple risk factors, or have combined population- and individual-level interventions. Work on healthy food and diet predominantly focused on children in educational or care settings, and few cities appeared to take a comprehensive approach to tackling obesity. Partnerships were a strong feature for all the NCD risk factor work, and were frequently extensive, being most diverse for the Healthy Diet and Food work. There were strong examples of engagement with communities, also involved in co-designing and shaping projects. Equity also featured strongly and there were multiple examples of how attention had been paid to the social determinants of health. There was evidence that cities continue to be significant innovative forces within their countries and drivers of change, and the mutual dependency of the national and local levels was highlighted. Interventions to promote physical activity have shifted focus from specific events and projects to being more integrated with other policy areas and based on intersectoral collaboration. PMID:26069321

  12. Evaluation of Risk Factors for Recurrent Wheezing Episodes

    PubMed Central

    Bozaykut, Abdulkadir; Paketci, Ahu; Sezer, Rabia Gonul; Paketci, Cem

    2013-01-01

    Background We aimed to evaluate the risk factors for recurrent wheezing in patients diagnosed with acute bronchiolitis. Method From 2009 to 2011, 500 patients from the pediatric clinics, with first attack of acute bronchiolitis were included in this prospective study. Each patient’s age, gender, birth weight, duration of breastfeeding, family history of atopy and asthma, smoking exposure, source of heating in the house, the presence of pets, any history of chronic disease have been questioned. The patients were followed for a duration of 12 - 24 months. Results In this study, 39% (n = 195) of the cases were female and 61% (n = 305) were male, with a median age of 3 months old. Male gender, low birth weight (< 2,500 g), low gestational age (< 37 weeks), breastfeeding of less than 6 months, congenital heart disease, family history of atopy, asthma, smoking exposure, stove warming, was found as significant risk factors for recurrent wheezing, however, presence of pets at home was found to be a protective factor. Conclusions Informing parents about the risk factors such as exposure to cigarette smoke, heating mode, duration of breastfeeding can significantly decrease recurrent episodes of wheezing. PMID:23976913

  13. Evaluation of Periodontal Risk in Adult Patients using Two Different Risk Assessment Models – A Pilot Study

    PubMed Central

    Bade, Shruthi; Bollepalli, Appaiah Chowdary; Katuri, Kishore Kumar; Devulapalli, Narasimha Swamy; Swarna, Chakrapani

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the periodontal risk of individuals using periodontal risk assessment (PRA) model and modified PRA model. Materials and Methods: A total of 50 patients with chronic periodontitis, age 30-60 years were selected randomly and charting of the periodontal status was performed and those who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled in the study. Parameters recorded were- percentage of sites with bleeding on probing (BOP), number of sites with pocket depths (PD) ≥ 5mm, number of the teeth lost, bone loss (BL)/age ratio, Clinical attachment loss(CAL)/age ratio, diabetic and smoking status, dental status, systemic factors like diabetes were assessed. All the risk factors were plotted on the radar chart in (PRA) and (mPRA) models, using Microsoft excel and periodontal risk were categorized as low, moderate and high risk. Results: Among 50 patients 31 were in low risk, 9 in moderate risk, and 10 in high risk identified by modified (PRA) model, whereas 28 patients were in low risk, 13 in moderate risk and 9 in high risk identified by (PRA). Statistical analysis demonstrated that there was no significant difference between the risk scores (X2 = 0.932 with degree of freedom = 2, P = 0.627). Conclusion: Both the periodontal risk models are effective in evaluating the risk factors and can be useful tool for predicting proper diagnosis, disease progression and therapeutic strategies during the supportive periodontal therapy. PMID:25859520

  14. Re-Evaluating Risk and Exploring Educational Alternatives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Mike; Fraser, Deborah

    2009-01-01

    Risk is positioned as a distinguishing feature of outdoor adventure education (OAE) pedagogy. Risk defines much of what happens in OAE, from participants "taking" risks to instructors "managing" risks. The taken-for-granted centrality of risk continues to have currency due to the thrill and allure of adventurous outdoor activities. This paper…

  15. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  16. Evaluation of Risk Factors for Rectus Sheath Hematoma.

    PubMed

    Sheth, Heena S; Kumar, Rohit; DiNella, Jeannine; Janov, Cheryl; Kaldas, Hoda; Smith, Roy E

    2016-04-01

    Rectus sheath hematoma (RSH) develops due to rupture of epigastric arteries or the rectus muscle. Although RSH incidence rate is low, it poses a significant diagnostic dilemma. We evaluated the risk factors for RSH, its presentation, management, and outcomes for 115 patients hospitalized with confirmed RSH by computed tomography scan between January 2005 and June 2009. More than three-fourth (77.4%) of the patients were on anticoagulation therapy, 58.3% patients had chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage ≥3, 51.3% had abdominal injections, 41.7% were on steroids/immunosuppressant therapy, 37.4% had abdominal surgery/trauma, 33.9% had cough, femoral puncture was performed in 31.3% of patients, and 29.5% were on antiplatelet therapy. Rectus sheath hematoma was not an attributable cause in any of the 17 deaths. Mortality was significantly higher in patients with CKD stage ≥3 (P = .03) or who required transfusion (P = .007). Better understanding of RSH risk factors will facilitate early diagnoses and improve management. PMID:25294636

  17. [Tonsillectomy in children: preoperative evaluation of risk factors].

    PubMed

    Stuck, B A; Genzwürker, H V

    2008-05-01

    Tonsillectomy is one of the most frequently performed surgical procedures in children and is associated with a relatively high risk of postoperative complications. The question often arises whether paediatric obstructive sleep apnoea should be diagnosed with preoperative sleep testing and whether preoperative coagulation tests should be performed in every child undergoing tonsillectomy. In order to answer these questions, the relevant German and English literature was analysed. Adenotonsillectomy in childhood usually resolves the underlying sleep-related breathing disorder. Nevertheless, especially in children with clinical risk factors such as severe sleep apnoea, obesity or craniofacial malformation, respiratory complications should be expected in the postoperative phase. Routine sleep tests prior to tonsillectomy are neither necessary nor practical for preoperative evaluation. Inherited coagulation disorders have only a limited effect on the occurrence of postoperative bleeding and the predictive value of routine coagulation tests is limited. As long as a thorough clinical history is negative, routine coagulation tests are not helpful or necessary prior to tonsillectomy in children. PMID:18311551

  18. Psychiatric conditions in worker fitness and risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Robbins, D B

    1988-01-01

    This chapter has reviewed the specific techniques of measuring fitness for work in individuals with psychiatric impairment. The discussion also considered the estimate of risk associated with various specific conditions and diagnoses. The use of psychiatric measures in work-fitness estimation is warranted in the following situations: 1. applicants with known or suspect history of psychiatric disorder; 2. employees returning to work after an episode of emotional illness or substance abuse; 3. employees referred to the medical department by management for evaluation of performance decrement, absence, abrupt indebtedness, unusual behavior, etc.; and 4. individuals evaluated for high stress or high risk jobs. Applicants' evaluations begin with a thorough medical history, a physical examination, a mental status examination, and basic laboratory studies. The personal history must include a complete work history, with particular attention paid to job duration and reasons for leaving employment. The mental status may be extended by specialized scales, e.g., the Griffiths work behavior rating scale. Unless an applicant has evidence of cognitive dysfunction, the usual battery of psychometric tests will not be helpful. Instruments that measure self-concept and ego strength, e.g., the Stotsky-Weinberg Sentence Completion Test and Miskimins Self-Goal-Other Test, may assist in resolving difficult questions about work fitness, especially in people with a history of schizophrenia. When an employee returns to work after an episode of psychiatric illness, the major questions for the occupational physician are: Is this person capable of returning to his current job? If not, what type of work is he capable of performing? In this instance, the fitness evaluation must add management data about the job to medical data about the patient. The patient-job fit is the crucial issue. For example, a socially-isolated, withdrawn paranoid schizophrenic functioned adequately for years as a third

  19. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    not. The model used for describing the Failure Likelihood considers how well a task was established by evaluating that task on five components. The components selected to define a well established task are: that it be defined, assigned to someone capable, that they be trained appropriately, that the actions be organized to enable proper completion and that some form of independent monitoring be performed. Validation of the method was based on the information provided by a group of experts in Space Shuttle ground processing when they were presented with 5 scenarios that identified a clause from a procedure. For each scenario, they recorded their perception of how important the associated rule was and how likely it was to fail. They then rated the components of Control Value and Failure Likelihood for all the scenarios. The order in which each reviewer ranked the scenarios Control Value and Failure Likelihood was compared to the order in which they ranked the scenarios for each of the associated components; inevitability and opportunity for Control Value and definition, assignment, training, organization and monitoring for Failure Likelihood. This order comparison showed how the components contributed to a relative relationship to the substitute risk element. With the relationship established for Space Shuttle ground processing, this method can be used to gauge if the introduction or removal of a particular rule will increase or decrease the .risk associated with the hazard it is intended to control.

  20. Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

  1. Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.

    1992-03-01

    This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

  2. METHODOLOGY FOR THE EVALUATION OF CUMULATIVE EPISODIC EXPOSURE TO CHEMICAL STRESSORS IN AQUATIC RISK ASSESSMENT.

    EPA Science Inventory

    An ecological risk assessment method was developed to evaluate the magnitude, duration, and episodic nature of chemical stressors on aquatic communities. The percent of an ecosystem's species at risk from a designated chemical exposure scenario is generated. In effects assessment...

  3. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  4. Pharmacokinetics and risk evaluation of DNA vaccine against Schistosoma japonicum.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hai-Feng; Li, Wei; Lu, Ming-Bo; Yu, Long-Jiang

    2013-01-01

    DNA plasmid immunization is a novel approach of preventive and therapeutic vaccine. More than 100 DNA vaccines have been on preclinical or clinical phase trials, and four kinds of DNA vaccines for livestock have been approved by USDA, CFIA, and APVMA. Schistosomiasis is a worldwide parasitic disease, and vaccine immunization is supposed to be a promising approach to control the health crisis. On the basis of former preclinical studies, we further focused on the pharmacokinetics and risk evaluation of DNA vaccine in vivo. In the present study, enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) report gene was fused with Schistosoma japonicum 23 kDa transmembrane protein antigen gene (Sj23) and constructed into DNA vaccine pVIVO2-Sj23.EGFP. After intramuscularly injecting 100 μg of purified DNA vaccine plasmid to immunizate BALB/c mice, we studied the tissue distribution of DNA plasmid and expressed Sj23.EGFP antigen, the persistence time of elicited antibodies, and the risk of DNA vaccine transferred into intestinal microorganisms. The results showed that DNA vaccine plasmid could be distributed into all tissues of the body after injection; however, only few organs including the injected muscle were detected DNA vaccine at postimmunization until the 100 days by PCR technology; the detection of green fluorescence protein displayed that DNA vaccine could be expressed in almost every tissue and organs; the ELISA assay indicated the immune antibody against Sj23 could persist over 70 days; and the DNA vaccine transferring intestinal flora results was negative. The results indicated that the DNA vaccine has systemic protection and long-lasting effectivity and is safe to intestinal flora. PMID:22990210

  5. Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2007-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

  6. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with Endometriosis in Infertile Women

    PubMed Central

    Ashrafi, Mahnaz; Sadatmahalleh, Shahideh Jahanian; Akhoond, Mohammad Reza; Talebi, Mehrak

    2016-01-01

    Background Endometriosis affects women’s physical and mental wellbeing. Symptoms include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, pelvic pain, and infertility. The purpose of this study is to assess the correlation between some relevant factors and symptoms and risk of an endometriosis diagnosis in infertile women. Materials and Methods A retrospective study of 1282 surgical patients in an infertility Institute, Iran between 2011 and 2013 were evaluated by laparoscopy. Of these, there were 341 infertile women with endometriosis (cases) and 332 infertile women with a normal pelvis (comparison group). Chi-square and t tests were used to compare these two groups. Logistic regression was done to build a prediction model for an endometriosis diagnosis. Results Gravidity [odds ratio (OR): 0.8, confidence interval (CI): 0.6-0.9, P=0.01], parity (OR: 0.7, CI: 0.6-0.9, P=0.01), family history of endometriosis (OR: 4.9, CI: 2.1-11.3, P<0.001), history of galactorrhea (OR: 2.3, CI: 1.5-3.5, P=0.01), history of pelvic surgery (OR: 1.9, CI: 1.3-2.7, P<0.001), and shorter menstrual cycle length (OR: 0.9, CI: 0.9-0.9, P=0.04) were associated with endometriosis. Duration of natural menstruation and age of menarche were not correlated with subsequent risk of endometriosis (P>0.05). Fatigue, diarrhea, constipation, dysmenorrhea, dyspareunia, pelvic pain and premenstrual spotting were more significant among late-stage endometriosis patients than in those with early-stage endometriosis and more prevalent among patients with endometriosis than that of the comparison group. In the logistic regression model, gravidity, family history of endometriosis, history of galactorrhea, history of pelvic surgery, dysmenorrhoea, pelvic pain, dysparaunia, premenstrual spotting, fatigue, and diarrhea were significantly associated with endometriosis. However, the number of pregnancies was negatively related to endometriosis. Conclusion Endometriosis is a considerable public health issue because it affects many

  7. How does the general public evaluate risk information? The impact of associations with other risks.

    PubMed

    Visschers, Vivianne H M; Meertens, Ree M; Passchier, Wim F; Devries, Nanne K

    2007-06-01

    There is a considerable body of knowledge about the way people perceive risks using heuristics and qualitative characteristics, and about how risk information should be communicated to the public. However, little is known about the way people use the perception of known risks (associated risks) to judge an unknown risk. In a first, qualitative study, six different risks were discussed in in-depth interviews and focus group interviews. The interviews showed that risk associations played a prominent role in forming risk perceptions. Associated risks were often mentioned spontaneously. Second, a survey study was conducted to confirm the importance of risk associations quantitatively. This study investigated whether people related unknown risks to known risks. This was indeed confirmed. Furthermore, some insight was gained into how and why people form risk associations. Results showed that the semantic category of the unknown risks was more important in forming associations than the perceived level of risk or specific risk characteristics. These findings were in line with the semantic network theory. Based on these two studies, we recommend using the mental models approach in developing new risk communications. PMID:17640218

  8. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.

  9. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    SciTech Connect

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  10. Relative risk site evaluations for Yakima Training Center

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.M.; Whelan, G.

    1996-11-01

    All 20 U.S. Army Yakima Training Center (YTC) sites evaluated were given a `low` relative risk. At Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 22, a `minimum` soils contaminant hazard factor was assigned even though 6,700 mg/kg TPH-diesel was found in surface soil. SWMU 22 is physically located on top of and with the fence surrounding Area of Concern (AOC) 4. Because the diesel is most likely associated with AOC 4, and plans are to clean up AOC 4, any further actions regarding these contaminated soils should be addressed as part of the planned actions for AOC 4. Contaminant hazard factors of `moderate` were assigned to the soil pathway for SWMUs 4 and 7 because dieldrin and arsenic, respectively, were found in surface soil samples at concentrations exceeding standards. A `moderate` contaminant hazard factor was also assigned to the sediment pathway for AOC 1 because arsenic detected in sediments in `Larry`s Swimming Pool` exceeded the standard. All other contaminant hazard factors were rated as minimal. The receptor factor for all sites and pathways was rated `limited,` except for SWMU 54 in which the groundwater receptor factor was rated `potential.` A `potential` rating was assigned to the groundwater pathway at this site to be conservative. The site is located on the south side of the syncline axis where the unconfined aquifer may be present and there are no monitoring wells at the site to confirm or deny the presence of groundwater contamination.

  11. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.T.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Gregory, J.J.; Jow, H.N.; Payne, A.C.; Gorham, E.D. ); Amos, C.N. ); Helton, J. ); Boyd, G. )

    1992-06-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a point estimate of risk, but to determine the distribution of risk, and to assess the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station. Much of this important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Source Term Panel.

  12. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Breeding, R.J.; Harper, F.T.; Brown, T.D.; Gregory, J.J.; Payne, A.C.; Gorham, E.D. ); Murfin, W. ); Amos, C.N. )

    1992-03-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom, and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station were assessed. Much of the important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Structural Response Panel.

  13. [Evaluation of radiation risk associated with endodontic radiography].

    PubMed

    Danforth, R A; Torabainejad, M

    1991-01-01

    Endodontic patients are sometimes concerned about the risks of tumors or cataracts from radiation exposure during root canal therapy. By using established dose and risk information, we calculated the extent of these risks. The chance of getting leukemia from an endodontic x-ray survey using 90 kVp was found to be 1 in 7.69 million, the same as the risk of dying from cancer from smoking 0.94 cigarettes or from an auto accident when driving 3.7 km. Risk of thyroid gland neoplasia was 1 in 667,000 (smoking 11.6 cigarettes, driving 45 km) and risk of salivary gland neoplasia 1 in 1.35 million (smoking 5.4 cigarettes, driving 21.1 km). Use of 70 kVp radiography reduced these risks only slightly. To receive the threshold dose to eyes to produce cataract changes, a patient would have to undergo 10,900 endodontic surveys. PMID:1782436

  14. Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTs) from a risk and reliability standpoint

    SciTech Connect

    Vesely, W.E. )

    1989-08-01

    This report describes the basic risks which are associated with allowed outage times (AOTs), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. The report furthermore describes criteria considerations in determining the acceptability of calculated AOT risks, and discusses the merits of relative risk criteria versus absolute risk criteria. The detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including uncertainty considerations are also discussed. The report also describes the proper ways that risks from multiple AOTs should be considered so that risks are properly accumulated from proposed multiple AOT changes, but are not double-counted. Generally, average AOT risks which include the frequency of occurrence of the AOT need to be accumulated but single downtime risks don't since they apply to individual AOTs. 8 refs., 22 tabs.

  15. Has Microsoft® Left Behind Risk Modeling in Cardiac and Thoracic Surgery?

    PubMed Central

    Poullis, Mike

    2011-01-01

    Abstract: This concept paper examines a number of key areas central to quality and risk assessment in cardiac surgery. The effect of surgeon and institutional factors with regard to outcomes in cardiac surgery is utilized to demonstrate the need to sub analyze cardiac surgeons performance in a more sophisticated manner than just operation type and patient risk factors, as in current risk models. By utilizing the mathematical/engineering concept of Fourier analysis in the breakdown of cardiac surgical results the effects of each of the core components that makes up the care package of a patient’s experiences are examined. The core components examined include: institutional, regional, patient, and surgeon effects. The limitations of current additive (Parsonnet, Euroscore) and logistic (Euroscore, Southern Thoracic Society) regression risk analysis techniques are discussed. The inadequacy of current modeling techniques is demonstrated via the use of known medical formula for calculating flow in the internal mammary artery and the calculation of blood pressure. By examining the fundamental limitations of current risk analysis techniques a new technique is proposed that embraces modern software computer technology via the use of structured query language. PMID:21449233

  16. Balloon aortic valvuloplasty as a bridge-to-decision in high risk patients with aortic stenosis: a new paradigm for the heart team decision making

    PubMed Central

    Saia, Francesco; Moretti, Carolina; Dall'Ara, Gianni; Ciuca, Cristina; Taglieri, Nevio; Berardini, Alessandra; Gallo, Pamela; Cannizzo, Marina; Chiarabelli, Matteo; Ramponi, Niccolò; Taffani, Linda; Bacchi-Reggiani, Maria Letizia; Marrozzini, Cinzia; Rapezzi, Claudio; Marzocchi, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Background Whilst the majority of the patients with severe aortic stenosis can be directly addressed to surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), in some instances additional information may be needed to complete the diagnostic workout. We evaluated the role of balloon aortic valvuloplasty (BAV) as a bridge-to-decision (BTD) in selected high-risk patients. Methods Between 2007 and 2012, the heart team in our Institution required BTD BAV in 202 patients. Very low left ventricular ejection fraction, mitral regurgitation grade ≥ 3, frailty, hemodynamic instability, serious comorbidity, or a combination of these factors were the main drivers for this strategy. We evaluated how BAV influenced the final treatment strategy in the whole patient group and in each specific subgroup. Results Mean logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was 23.5% ± 15.3%, age 81 ± 7 years. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%, cerebrovascular accident 1% and overall vascular complications 4% (0.5% major; 3.5% minor). Of the 193 patients with BTD BAV who survived and received a second heart team evaluation, 72.6% were finally deemed eligible for definitive treatment (25.4% for AVR; 47.2% for TAVI): 96.7% of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction recovery; 70.5% of patients with mitral regurgitation reduction; 75.7% of patients who underwent BAV in clinical hemodynamic instability; 69.2% of frail patients and 68% of patients who presented serious comorbidities. Conclusions Balloon aortic valvuloplasty can be considered as bridge-to-decision in high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis who cannot be immediate candidates for definitive transcatheter or surgical treatment. PMID:27582761

  17. Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

    PubMed Central

    Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

  18. Magnetic field exposure and arrythmic risk: evaluation in railway drivers.

    PubMed

    Santangelo, L; Di Grazia, M; Liotti, F; De Maria, E; Calabró, R; Sannolo, N

    2005-05-01

    Recent studies suggest that professional exposure to Extremely Low Frequency-Electro Magnetic Field (ELF-EMF) can increase the risk of sudden cardiac death. Aim of our work was to find predictive parameters of arrhythmic risk in a population of 28 railways drivers exposed to ELF-EMF. Our findings were that the exposure did not reduce HRV and did not increase the risk of arrhythmias. PMID:15750820

  19. Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

  20. Ethical evaluation of risks related to living donor transplantation programs.

    PubMed

    Panocchia, N; Bossola, M; Silvestri, P; Midolo, E; Teleman, A A; Tazza, L; Sacchini, D; Minacori, R; Di Pietro, M L; Spagnolo, A G

    2013-09-01

    The shortage of available cadaveric organs for transplantation and the growing demand has incresed live donation. To increase the number of transplantations from living donors, programs have been implemented to coordinate donations in direct or indirect form (cross-over, paired, and domino chain). Living donors with complex medical conditions are accepted by several transplantation programs. In this way, the number of transplants from living has exceeded that from cadaver donors in several European countries. No mortality has been reported in the case of lung, pancreas, or intestinal Living donations, but the perioperative complications range from 15% to 30% for pancreas and lung donors. In living kidney donors, the perioperative mortality is 3 per 10,000. Their frequency of end-stage renal disease does not exceed the United States rate for the general population. However, long-term follow-up studies of living donors for kidney transplantations have several limitations. The frequency of complications in live donor liver transplantation is 40%, of these, 48% are possibly life-threatening according to the Clavien classification. Residual disability, liver failure, or death has occurred in 1% of cases. The changes in live donor acceptance criteria raise ethical issues, in particular, the physician's role in evaluating and accepting the risks taken by the living donor. Some workers argue to set aside medical paternalism on behalf of the principle of donor autonomy. In this way the medical rule "primum non nocere" is overcome. Transplantation centers should reason beyond the shortage of organs and think in terms of the care for both donor and recipient. PMID:24034000

  1. Evaluation of vegetable production management practices to reduce the ecological risk of pesticides

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The ability of agricultural management practices to reduce the ecological risks of pesticides was evaluated. Risk quotients, a mathematical description of the relationship between exposure and toxicity, and hazard ratings, a rank of potential risk of pesticides to aquatic environments, were calculat...

  2. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  3. An Evaluation of Transplacental Carcinogenesis for Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessments take into account the sensitivity of the postnatal period to carcinogens through the application of age-dependent adjustment factors (ADAFs) (Barton et al. 2005). The prenatal period is also recognized to be sensitive but is typically not included into risk asse...

  4. Evaluation of the Recognizing and Responding to Suicide Risk Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobson, Jodi Michelle; Osteen, Philip; Jones, Andrea; Berman, Alan

    2012-01-01

    Changes in attitudes, confidence, and practice behaviors were assessed among 452 clinicians who completed the training, Recognizing and Responding to Suicide Risk, and who work with clients at risk for suicide. Data were collected at three time points. Scores on measures of attitudes toward suicide prevention and confidence to work with clients at…

  5. 77 FR 66649 - Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-11-06

    ... COMMISSION Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors... comment period. SUMMARY: On October 9, 2012 (77 FR 61446), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC or...), Section 19.0 ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors.'' The NRC...

  6. A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

  7. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method Applied in the Real Estate Investment Risks Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ML(Zhang Minli), Zhang; Wp(Yang Wenpo), Yang

    Real estate investment is a high-risk and high returned of economic activity, the key of real estate analysis is the identification of their types of investment risk and the risk of different types of effective prevention. But, as the financial crisis sweeping the world, the real estate industry also faces enormous risks, how effective and correct evaluation of real estate investment risks becomes the multitudinous scholar concern[1]. In this paper, real estate investment risks were summarized and analyzed, and comparative analysis method is discussed and finally presented fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, not only in theory has the advantages of science, in the application also has the reliability, for real estate investment risk assessment provides an effective means for investors in real estate investing guidance on risk factors and forecasts.

  8. Cancer-Risk Module Identification and Module-Based Disease Risk Evaluation: A Case Study on Lung Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Li, Wan; Zhang, Liangcai; Feng, Chenchen; He, Yuehan; Bi, Xiaoman; Wang, Liqiang; Du, Youwen; Hou, Min; Hao, Dapeng; Xiao, Yun; Chen, Lina; Li, Kongning

    2014-01-01

    Gene expression profiles have drawn broad attention in deciphering the pathogenesis of human cancers. Cancer-related gene modules could be identified in co-expression networks and be applied to facilitate cancer research and clinical diagnosis. In this paper, a new method was proposed to identify lung cancer-risk modules and evaluate the module-based disease risks of samples. The results showed that thirty one cancer-risk modules were closely related to the lung cancer genes at the functional level and interactional level, indicating that these modules and genes might synergistically lead to the occurrence of lung cancer. Our method was proved to have good robustness by evaluating the disease risk of samples in eight cancer expression profiles (four for lung cancer and four for other cancers), and had better performance than the WGCNA method. This method could provide assistance to the diagnosis and treatment of cancers and a new clue for explaining cancer mechanisms. PMID:24643254

  9. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  10. Risk Evaluation in the Pre-Phase A Conceptual Design of Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fabisinski, Leo L., III; Maples, Charlotte Dauphne

    2010-01-01

    Typically, the most important decisions in the design of a spacecraft are made in the earliest stages of its conceptual design the Pre-Phase A stages. It is in these stages that the greatest number of design alternatives is considered, and the greatest number of alternatives is rejected. The focus of Pre-Phase A conceptual development is on the evaluation and comparison of whole concepts and the larger-scale systems comprising those concepts. This comparison typically uses general Figures of Merit (FOMs) to quantify the comparative benefits of designs and alternative design features. Along with mass, performance, and cost, risk should be one of the major FOMs in evaluating design decisions during the conceptual design phases. However, risk is often given inadequate consideration in conceptual design practice. The reasons frequently given for this lack of attention to risk include: inadequate mission definition, lack of rigorous design requirements in early concept phases, lack of fidelity in risk assessment methods, and under-evaluation of risk as a viable FOM for design evaluation. In this paper, the role of risk evaluation in early conceptual design is discussed. The various requirements of a viable risk evaluation tool at the Pre-Phase A level are considered in light of the needs of a typical spacecraft design study. A technique for risk identification and evaluation is presented. The application of the risk identification and evaluation approach to the conceptual design process is discussed. Finally, a computational tool for risk profiling is presented and applied to assess the risk for an existing Pre-Phase A proposal. The resulting profile is compared to the risks identified for the proposal by other means.

  11. Qualitative risk evaluation of environmental restoration programs at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, S.C.

    1996-05-01

    This report documents the evaluation of risks associated with environmental restoration activities at Brookhaven National Laboratory using two tools supplied by DOE to provide a consistent set of risk estimates across the DOE complex: Risk Data Sheets (RDS) and Relative Risk Ranking. The tools are described, the process taken characterized, results provided and discussed. The two approaches are compared and recommendations provided for continuing improvement of the process.

  12. Risk Evaluation of Bogie System Based on Extension Theory and Entropy Weight Method

    PubMed Central

    Du, Yanping; Zhang, Yuan; Zhao, Xiaogang; Wang, Xiaohui

    2014-01-01

    A bogie system is the key equipment of railway vehicles. Rigorous practical evaluation of bogies is still a challenge. Presently, there is overreliance on part-specific experiments in practice. In the present work, a risk evaluation index system of a bogie system has been established based on the inspection data and experts' evaluation. Then, considering quantitative and qualitative aspects, the risk state of a bogie system has been evaluated using an extension theory and an entropy weight method. Finally, the method has been used to assess the bogie system of four different samples. Results show that this method can assess the risk state of a bogie system exactly. PMID:25574159

  13. Risk evaluation of bogie system based on extension theory and entropy weight method.

    PubMed

    Du, Yanping; Zhang, Yuan; Zhao, Xiaogang; Wang, Xiaohui

    2014-01-01

    A bogie system is the key equipment of railway vehicles. Rigorous practical evaluation of bogies is still a challenge. Presently, there is overreliance on part-specific experiments in practice. In the present work, a risk evaluation index system of a bogie system has been established based on the inspection data and experts' evaluation. Then, considering quantitative and qualitative aspects, the risk state of a bogie system has been evaluated using an extension theory and an entropy weight method. Finally, the method has been used to assess the bogie system of four different samples. Results show that this method can assess the risk state of a bogie system exactly. PMID:25574159

  14. [Application of spatial relative risk estimation in communicable disease risk evaluation].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yewu; Guo, Qing; Wang, Xiaofeng; Yu, Meng; Su, Xuemei; Dong, Yan; Zhang, Chunxi

    2015-05-01

    This paper summaries the application of adaptive kernel density algorithm in the spatial relative risk estimation of communicable diseases by using the reported data of infectious diarrhea (other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid) in Ludian county and surrounding area in Yunnan province in 2013. Statistically significant fluctuations in an estimated risk function were identified through the use of asymptotic tolerance contours, and finally these data were visualized though disease mapping. The results of spatial relative risk estimation and disease mapping showed that high risk areas were in southeastern Shaoyang next to Ludian. Therefore, the spatial relative risk estimation of disease by using adaptive kernel density algorithm and disease mapping technique is a powerful method in identifying high risk population and areas. PMID:26080648

  15. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finnegan, Seth; Anderson, Sean C.; Harnik, Paul G.; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P.; Byrnes, Jarrett E.; Finkel, Zoe V.; Lindberg, David R.; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lockwood, Rowan; Lotze, Heike K.; McClain, Craig R.; McGuire, Jenny L.; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M.

    2015-05-01

    Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk—extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models—for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.

  16. Pediatricians’ assessments of caries risk and need for a dental evaluation in preschool aged children

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Risk-based prioritization of dental referrals during well-child visits might improve dental access for infants and toddlers. This study identifies pediatrician-assessed risk factors for early childhood caries (ECC) and their association with the need for a dentist’s evaluation. Methods A priority oral health risk assessment and referral tool (PORRT) for children < 36 months was developed collaboratively by physicians and dentists and used by 10 pediatricians during well-child visits. PORRT documented behavioral, clinical, and child health risks for ECC. Pediatricians also assessed overall ECC risk on an 11-point scale and determined the need for a dental evaluation. Logistic regression models calculated the odds for evaluation need for each risk factor and according to a 3-level risk classification. Results In total 1,288 PORRT forms were completed; 6.8% of children were identified as needing a dentist evaluation. Behavioral risk factors were prevalent but not strong predictors of the need for an evaluation. The child’s overall caries risk was the strongest predictor of the need for an evaluation. Cavitated (OR = 17.5; 95% CI = 8.08, 37.97) and non-cavitated (OR = 6.9; 95% CI = 4.47, 10.82) lesions were the strongest predictors when the caries risk scale was excluded from the analysis. Few patients (6.3%) were classified as high risk, but their probability of needing an evaluation was only 0.36. Conclusions Low referral rates for children with disease and prior to disease onset but at elevated risk, indicate interventions are needed to help improve the dental referral rates of physicians. PMID:22559270

  17. Preoperative risk stratification models fail to predict hospital cost of cardiac surgery patients

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Preoperative risk stratification models have previously been suggested to predict cardiac surgery unit costs. However, there is a lack of consistency in their reliability in this field. In this study we aim to test the correlation between the values of six commonly known preoperative scoring systems and evaluate their reliability at predicting unit costs of cardiac surgery patients. Methods Over a period of 14 months all consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery on cardiopulmonary bypass were prospectively classified using six preoperative scoring models (EuroSCORE, Parsonnet, Ontario, French, Pons and CABDEAL). Transplantation patients were the only patients we excluded. Total hospital costs for each patient were calculated independently on a daily basis using the bottom up method. The full unit costs were calculated including preoperative diagnostic tests, operating room cost, disposable materials, drugs, blood components as well as costs for personnel and fixed hospital costs. The correlation between hospital cost and the six models was determined by linear regression analysis. Both Spearman’s and Pearson’s correlation coefficients were calculated from the regression lines. An analysis of residuals was performed to determine the quality of the regression. Results A total of 887 patients were operated on for CABG (n = 608), valve (n = 142), CABG plus valve (n = 100), thoracic aorta (n = 33) and ventricular assist devices (n = 4). Mean age of the patients was 68.3±9.9 years, 27.6% were female. 30-day mortality rate was 4.1%. Correlation between the six models and hospital cost was weak (Pearson’s: r < 0.30; Spearman’s: r < 0.40). Conclusion The risk stratification models in this study are not reliable at predicting total costs of cardiac surgical patients. We therefore do not recommend their use for this purpose. PMID:23659251

  18. Evaluation of the quality of life and risk of suicide

    PubMed Central

    de Medeiros Alves, Verônica; de Lima Francisco, Leilane Camila Ferreira; Belo, Flaviane Maria Pereira; de-Melo-Neto, Valfrido Leão; Barros, Vinicius Gomes; Nardi, Antonio E

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify the socio-demographic profiles, suicidal ideation, the presence of mental disorders and the quality of life of patients using mental health services in Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil. METHOD: Interviews were conducted in family health units and the Psychosocial Attention Center. The sample included 202 mental disorder patients with a risk of suicide attempts, 207 mental disorder patients without a risk of suicide attempts and 196 controls. This study used an identification questionnaire, the abbreviated World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire, Beck‘s Suicidal Ideation Scale and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. RESULTS: Patients who had a mental disorder and a risk of suicide attempts tended to be single, had less education and lower family income, were not working and showed lower scores in quality of life domains; 73 of these patients had suicidal ideation in the previous week. Depressive disorders, manic episodes, hypomanic episodes, social phobias, obsessive compulsive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, psychotic syndromes and generalized anxiety disorder were more frequent and statistically significant for patients at risk for suicide attempts. CONCLUSION: The management of patients with a risk of suicide attempts must focus on individual patients because this risk is directly linked to changes in quality of life and the improvement of these patients' prognosis. PMID:27074173

  19. Evaluation of skin cancer risk for lunar and Mars missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; George, Kerry A.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    Methods used to estimate the probability of excess incidence of skin cancer from space radiation exposure must take into consideration the variability of dose to different areas of the body and the individual factors that may contribute to increased risk, including skin pigment and synergistic effects from combined ionizing and UV exposure. We have estimated the skin cancer risk for future lunar and Mars missions using: (1) the multiplicative risk model for transferring the Japanese survivor data to the US population, (2) epidemiological data for the increased risk for skin locations exposed to combined UV and ionizing radiation, and (3) models of space radiation environments, transport, and anatomical shielding for 5260 skin loci. We have estimated that the probability for increased skin cancer risk from solar particle events varies more than 10-fold depending on the individual and area of skin exposed. We show that a skin cancer risk greater than 1% could occur for astronauts with light skin and hair color following exposure to medium or large class solar particle events during future lunar base operations, or from exposure to galactic cosmic rays during Mars missions.

  20. Integrating input output analysis with risk assessment to evaluate the population risk of arsenic.

    PubMed

    Ma, Hwong-Wen; Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Hung, Ming-Lung; Chao, Chia-Wei; Li, Pei-Chiun

    2012-01-17

    Multimedia and site-specific risk assessments (RA) of major sources releasing arsenic (As) were converted into sector-based risk coefficients, which were integrated with the Input Output Table (IO) to analyze the association between sector activities and health risks. The developed IO-RA framework is a valuable tool for unfolding the risk chain linking the receptors, exposure pathways, emission sources, and production and consumption activities associated with various industrial sectors. The enlarged decision space along the chain can then be considered in planning risk management strategies. This case study estimates that air emissions of As result in 1.54 carcinogenic cases. Export is the primary driving force and accounts for approximately 48% of the final demand that leads to population risks of As. The ranking of the contribution of the five sectors in terms of total population risks is as follows: electricity supply (1.06E+00), steelmaking (2.2 × 10(-1)), cement kilns (1.50 × 10(-1)), semiconductor manufacturing (6.34 × 10(-2)) and incinerators (4.31 × 10(-2)). The electricity supply, steelmaking industry, and cement kilns are the major sectors, not only because their emissions directly cause risk but also because they have a stronger influence on the risk generated by other sectors. PMID:22192073

  1. EVALUATING RISKS OF EXPOSURE TO TOTAL PETROLEUM HYDROCARBONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This project will investigate dissolution and partitioning of TPH in soil and groundwater by performing laboratory soil column studies and evaluating available field data. Dissolution and transport models will then be used to evaluate field and laboratory dissolution data. Exper...

  2. Risk evaluation of land subsidence and its application to metro safety operation in Shanghai

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Wang, H.; Yan, X.

    2015-11-01

    Based on sufficiently investigating characteristics and risk connotation of land subsidence, a risk evaluation index system for land subsidence disaster is established, which is combined with the sensitivity feature of the hazard bearing body to land subsidence. An appropriate evaluation method system is established by using an improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method. So risk evaluation is developed for providing theoretical basis and technical support for the regional management of land subsidence prevention and control. On this basis, as a case of Shanghai metro, firstly, the paper studies the identifying risk sources of the metro. According to metro linear characteristics, external indexes of representing subsidence risk are obtained. Studying the subsidence risk of the metro, relevant achievement has provided the technical basis for daily main monitoring, early warning and work arrangement.

  3. Using a GIS to perform relative risk site evaluations at Air Force installations

    SciTech Connect

    Sharma, S.K.; Mardini, K.; Aengenheyster, M.J.; Meng, Q.

    1996-12-31

    The Department of Defense (DoD) has developed the Relative Risk Site Evaluation Framework as a means for categorizing sites and Areas of Concern (AOCs) in the Defense Environmental Restoration Program (DERP) into High, Medium, and Low relative risk groups. This framework is being pursued, in concert with regulators and communities to sequence work in the DERP. Its goal is to ensure that sites with higher risk (relative to other sites) are generally considered first in the priority setting process. DoD is pursuing the use of relative risk, in conjunction with other risk management concerns to help in the sequencing of remedial work. The Acquisition Environmental Management Directorate of the USAF Aeronautical Systems Center (ASC/EM) is charged with the environmental restoration at 12 major industrial plants (AFPs) in the US. At ASC/EM, the Relative Risk MapInfo Interface (RRMI), a MapInfo based GIS application, has been developed to implement relative risk site evaluation for sites on AFPs. The RRMI accesses IRPIMS in a real-time mode to integrate contaminant information for the evaluation of relative risk at sites. Users evaluate sites using point and click commands with the mouse. Site evaluations are done in accordance with the framework and relative risk is depicted pictorially on the base map of the respective installation.

  4. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  5. Evaluating risks to wildlife from coal fly ash incorporating recent advances in metals and metalloids risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Carolyn B; Schlekat, Tamar H; Walls, Suzanne J; Iannuzzi, Jacqueline; Souza, Marcy J

    2015-01-01

    Current scientific advances in metal and metalloid risk assessment were applied to evaluate risk to aquatic and riparian wildlife species potentially impacted by residual coal fly ash after cleanup of an unprecedented large ash release into an aquatic environment-the first assessment of its kind. Risk was evaluated using multiple lines of evidence (LOE), including 1) tissue-based risk assessment of inorganic concentrations in piscivorous and insectivorous bird eggs and raccoon organs, 2) deterministic and probabilistic diet-based risk estimates for 10 receptors species, 3) raccoon health metrics, and 4) tree swallow nest productivity measures. Innovative approaches included use of tissue-based toxicity reference values (TRVs), adjustment of bioavailability in the dietary uptake models (using sequential metal extractions in sediment), partitioning chemical species into uptake compartments (e.g., prey gut, nongut, sediment), incorporating uncertainty in both modeled dose and dietary TRVs, matching TRVs to chemical forms of constituents, and pairing these LOEs with reproductive success or health status of sensitive receptor species. The weight of evidence revealed that risk to wildlife from residual ash was low and that risk, though low, was most pronounced for insectivorous birds from exposure to Se and As. This information contributes to the debate surrounding coal combustion residue regulations prompted by this ash release. Because of the responsible party's proactive approach of applying state-of-the-art methods to assess risk using several LOEs that produced consistent results, and because of their inclusion of the regulating agencies in decisions at every step of the process, the risk assessment results were accepted, and an effective approach toward cleanup protective of the environment was quickly implemented. This study highlights the value of using multiple LOEs and the latest scientific advances to assist in timely decision making to obtain an effective

  6. Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing

    PubMed Central

    Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C

    2016-01-01

    Background Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Objective Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. Methods We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). Results We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. Conclusions CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk. PMID:26800642

  7. Multiple risk factor evaluation in a hypertension clinic.

    PubMed

    Thom, S; Bunker, J; Callister, W; Poulter, N; Sever, P; Zographos, D

    1989-12-01

    Hypertension is associated with abnormal lipoprotein metabolism, which may be exacerbated by some groups of antihypertensive drugs and represents an additional powerful coronary heart disease risk factor. Of our Hypertension Clinic population, 75% had a total fasting serum cholesterol greater than 5.2 mmol/l. Dietary advice and adjustment of antihypertensive therapy has achieved significant reductions in total cholesterol, serum triglycerides and body weight (14%, 18% and 4.3%, respectively) in a cohort of 65 patients reassessed over a period of 3-21 months. The reduction in cholesterol is likely to represent at least a 28% reduction in the risk of a major coronary heart disease event, even before taking account of any improvement in other coronary heart disease risk factors. PMID:2632734

  8. Evaluation of a cardiovascular Risk Reduction Program at a workplace medical clinic.

    PubMed

    Andres, Kara L; Renn, Tracy A; Gray, David A; Englund, Joanne M; Olsen, Geary W; Letourneau, Barbara K

    2013-10-01

    The Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Program (CVRRP) was implemented in the 3M Medical Clinic in December 2009. The goal of the CVRRP was to evaluate 3M employees at risk for developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and address any related modifiable risk factors with appropriate intervention strategies through clinic visits with a 3M nurse practitioner or physician and, if needed, a registered dietitian and/or exercise professional. Data for the first 100 participants were analyzed to initially assess the effectiveness of the program. Based on this evaluation, the 3M CVRRP and active collaboration between participants and providers in the workplace successfully reduced modifiable CVD risk factors. PMID:24053219

  9. [Pollution Evaluation and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals from Atmospheric Deposition in the Parks of Nanjing].

    PubMed

    Wang, Cheng; Qian, Xin; Li, Hui-ming; Sun, Yi-xuan; Wang, Jin-hua

    2016-05-15

    Contents of heavy metals involving As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from atmospheric deposition in 10 parks of Nanjing were analyzed. The pollution level, ecological risk and health risk were evaluated using Geoaccumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Index and the US EPA Health Risk Assessment Model, respectively. The results showed that the pollution levels of heavy metals in Swallow Rock Park, Swallow Rock Park and Mochou Lake Park were higher than the others. Compared to other cities such as Changchun, Wuhan and Beijing, the contents of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition of parks in Nanjing were higher. The evaluation results of Geoaccumulation Index showed that Pb was at moderate pollution level, Zn and Cu were between moderate and serious levels, while Cd was between serious and extreme levels. The ecological risk level of Cd was high. The assessment results of Health Risk Assessment Model indicated that there was no non-carcinogenic risk for all the seven heavy metals. For carcinogenic risk, the risks of Cd, Cr and Ni were all negligible (Risk < 1 x 10⁻⁶), whereas As had carcinogenic risk possibility but was considered to be acceptable (10⁻⁶ < Risk < 10⁻⁴). PMID:27506017

  10. Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

    2012-12-01

    Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. PMID:22819925

  11. Evaluating Risk Awareness in Undergraduate Students Studying Mechanical Engineering

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Langdon, G. S.; Balchin, K.; Mufamadi, P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the development of risk awareness among undergraduate students studying mechanical engineering at a South African university. A questionnaire developed at the University of Liverpool was modified and used on students from the first, second and third year cohorts to assess their awareness in the areas of professional…

  12. Risk in Enterprise Cloud Computing: Re-Evaluated

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Funmilayo, Bolonduro, R.

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative study was conducted to get the perspectives of IT experts about risks in enterprise cloud computing. In businesses, these IT experts are often not in positions to prioritize business needs. The business experts commonly known as business managers mostly determine an organization's business needs. Even if an IT expert classified a…

  13. Integrative Approaches to Evaluating Neurotoxicity Data for Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment classically has been based on single adverse outcomes identified as the Lowest Observable Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) or the highest dose level in a credible study producing a No Observable Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL). While this approach has been useful overal...

  14. A risk evaluation for the fuel retrieval sub-project

    SciTech Connect

    Carlisle, B.S.

    1996-10-11

    This study reviews the technical, schedule and budget baselines of the sub-project to assure all significant issues have been identified on the sub-project issues management list. The issue resolution dates are identified and resolution plans established. Those issues that could adversely impact procurement activities have been uniquely identified on the list and a risk assessment completed.

  15. CUMULATIVE AND AGGREGATE RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM (CARES) MODEL REVIEW

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The 1996 Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA) changed the way the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assesses risks of pesticide use. Both cumulative and aggregate exposures must now be considered. They are cumulative since consumption of residues in food and drinking water and incidental co...

  16. A Research into Evaluation of Basketball Athletes' Risk Perception Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karatas, Ozgur

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to compare the risk perception levels of Basketball athletes in Turkish League teams according to some variables. In this research the "general screening model," which is one of the descriptive screening methods, was used. While the population of the study consists of athletes actively engaged in the Turkish…

  17. DEVELOPING TOOLS FOR EVALUATING RISK MANAGEMENT OF ENDOCRINE DISRUPTING CHEMICALS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of endocrine disrupting chemical (EDC) risk management (RM) is to minimize the release of EDCs into the environment or to minimize the exposure of humans or wildlife to EDCs already present in the environment. RM research projects may involve: substituting more innocuous...

  18. Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites (External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In March 2004, ORD's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) received a request from the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF) relating to the evaluation of ecological risk to vertebrate and benthic invertebrate receptors from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds...

  19. Preface to the Special Issue on High-Risk, Critical-Skills Training Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cantor, Jeffrey A.

    1992-01-01

    Summarizes the six articles included in this special issue, which discuss evaluation of human performance in critical skills occupations; strategic planning for safety in high-risk occupations; performance and training effectiveness decisions; performance indicators for training evaluation; evaluation of a nuclear training program; and a model for…

  20. Evaluation of association methods for analysing modifiers of disease risk in carriers of high-risk mutations.

    PubMed

    Barnes, Daniel R; Lee, Andrew; Easton, Douglas F; Antoniou, Antonis C

    2012-04-01

    There is considerable evidence indicating that disease risk in carriers of high-risk mutations (e.g. BRCA1 and BRCA2) varies by other genetic factors. Such mutations tend to be rare in the population and studies of genetic modifiers of risk have focused on sampling mutation carriers through clinical genetics centres. Genetic testing targets affected individuals from high-risk families, making ascertainment of mutation carriers non-random with respect to disease phenotype. Standard analytical methods can lead to biased estimates of associations. Methods proposed to address this problem include a weighted-cohort (WC) and retrospective likelihood (RL) approach. Their performance has not been evaluated systematically. We evaluate these methods by simulation and extend the RL to analysing associations of two diseases simultaneously (competing risks RL-CRRL). The standard cohort approach (Cox regression) yielded the most biased risk ratio (RR) estimates (relative bias-RB: -25% to -17%) and had the lowest power. The WC and RL approaches provided similar RR estimates, were least biased (RB: -2.6% to 2.5%), and had the lowest mean-squared errors. The RL method generally had more power than WC. When analysing associations with two diseases, ignoring a potential association with one disease leads to inflated type I errors for inferences with respect to the second disease and biased RR estimates. The CRRL generally gave unbiased RR estimates for both disease risks and had correct nominal type I errors. These methods are illustrated by analyses of genetic modifiers of breast and ovarian cancer risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. PMID:22714938

  1. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-12-31

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  2. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect

    Mankamo, T. ); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. )

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  3. Development and Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score for Obesity

    PubMed Central

    Belsky, Daniel W.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Houts, Renate; McCarthy, Jeanette; Caspi, Avshalom

    2013-01-01

    Background Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) represent a potential resource for etiological and treatment research. GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes have been especially successful. To translate this success into a research tool, we developed and tested a “genetic risk score” (GRS) that summarizes an individual’s genetic predisposition to obesity. Methods Different GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes report different sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as the best genomic markers of obesity risk. Therefore, we applied a 3-stage approach that pooled results from multiple GWAS to select SNPs to include in our GRS: The 3 stages are (1) Extraction. SNPs with evidence of association are compiled from published GWAS; (2) Clustering. SNPs are grouped according to patterns of linkage disequilibrium; (3) Selection. Tag SNPs are selected from clusters that meet specific criteria. We applied this 3-stage approach to results from 16 GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes in European-descent samples to create a GRS. We then tested the GRS in the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Communities (ARIC) Study cohort (N=10,745, 55% female, 77% white, 23% African American). Results Our 32-locus GRS was a statistically significant predictor of body mass index (BMI) and obesity among ARIC whites (for BMI, r=0.13, p<1×10−30; for obesity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=0.57 [95% CI 0.55–0.58]). The GRS improved prediction of obesity (as measured by delta-AUC and integrated discrimination index) when added to models that included demographic and geographic information. FTO- and MC4R-linked SNPs, and a non-genetic risk assessment consisting of a socioeconomic index (p<0.01 for all comparisons). The GRS also predicted increased mortality risk over 17 years of follow-up. The GRS performed less well among African Americans. Conclusions The obesity GRS derived using our 3-stage approach is not useful for clinical risk prediction, but

  4. Evaluation of risk prioritization and budget allocation methods for pollution prevention activities

    SciTech Connect

    Daniels, J.; Jones, E.; Lmont, A.; Ladmn, T.; Watz, J.

    1997-01-01

    This study reviews the structure of two main risk prioritization budget allocation methods developed by the DOE Risk-Based Priority Mode (RPM) and Management Evaluation Matrix (MEM). It identifies potential augmentations to the process that will address both risk reduction and cost-effective investments of finite resources for future Environmental Management activities. The evaluation was performed in accordance with the EM ten-year vision and principles for site cleanup. The evaluation and recommendations in this report strive to reflect four key principles, namely to eliminate the most urgent risks, reduce mortgage and support costs to make funds available for further risk reduction, protect worker health and safety, and reduce the generation of wastes.

  5. First-passage and risk evaluation under stochastic volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masoliver, Jaume; Perelló, Josep

    2009-07-01

    We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and the hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain approximate forms of these probabilities which prove, among other interesting properties, the nonexistence of a mean-first-passage time. One significant result is the evidence of extreme deviations—which implies a high risk of default—when certain dimensionless parameter, related to the strength of the volatility fluctuations, increases. We confront the model with empirical daily data and we observe that it is able to capture a very broad domain of the hitting probability. We believe that this may provide an effective tool for risk control which can be readily applicable to real markets both for portfolio management and trading strategies.

  6. Characterization and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1981-01-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed, using the event and fault-tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which are, at present, unquantifiable using either classical or Bayesian statistics. it is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events, and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance.

  7. Clinical Evaluation of a Novel and Mobile Autism Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Duda, Marlena; Daniels, Jena; Wall, Dennis P

    2016-06-01

    The Mobile Autism Risk Assessment (MARA) is a new, electronically administered, 7-question autism spectrum disorder (ASD) screen to triage those at highest risk for ASD. Children 16 months-17 years (N = 222) were screened during their first visit in a developmental-behavioral pediatric clinic. MARA scores were compared to diagnosis from the clinical encounter. Participant median age was 5.8 years, 76.1 % were male, and most participants had an intelligence/developmental quotient score >85; 69 of the participants (31 %) received a clinical diagnosis of ASD. The sensitivity of the MARA in detecting ASD was 89.9 % [95 % CI = 82.7-97]; the specificity was 79.7 % [95 % CI = 73.4-86.1]. In a high-risk clinical setting, the MARA shows promise as a screen to distinguish ASD from other developmental/behavioral disorders. PMID:26873142

  8. Evaluating risk using bounding calculations and limited data

    SciTech Connect

    COWLEY, W.L.

    1999-05-27

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines.

  9. Abrasive blasting agents: designing studies to evaluate relative risk.

    PubMed

    Hubbs, Ann; Greskevitch, Mark; Kuempel, Eileen; Suarez, Fernando; Toraason, Mark

    Workers exposed to respirable crystalline silica used in abrasive blasting are at increased risk of developing a debilitating and often fatal fibrotic lung disease called silicosis. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) recommends that silica sand be prohibited as abrasive blasting material and that less hazardous materials be used in blasting operations. However, data are needed on the relative risks associated with exposure to abrasive blasting materials other than silica. NIOSH has completed acute studies in rats (Hubbs et al., 2001; Porter et al., 2002). To provide dose-response data applicable to making recommendation for occupational exposure limits, NIOSH has collaborated with the National Toxicology Program (NTP) to design longer term studies with silica substitutes. For risk assessment purposes, selected doses will include concentrations that are relevant to human exposures. Rat lung burdens achieved should be comparable to those estimated in humans with working lifetime exposures, even if this results in "overloading" doses in rats. To quantify both dose and response, retained particle burdens in the lungs and lung-associated lymph nodes will be measured, as well as biochemical and pathological indices of pulmonary response. This design will facilitate assessment of the pulmonary fibrogenic potential of inhaled abrasive blasting agents at occupationally relevant concentrations. PMID:16020188

  10. Evaluating changes in driver behaviour: a risk profiling approach.

    PubMed

    Ellison, Adrian B; Bliemer, Michiel C J; Greaves, Stephen P

    2015-02-01

    New road safety strategies continue to be devised by researchers and policy makers with pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) schemes gaining increasing attention. However, empirically measuring the effectiveness of these strategies is challenging due to the influence of the road environment and other factors external to the driver. The analysis presented here applies Temporal and Spatial Identifiers to control for the road environment and Driver Behaviour Profiles to provide a common measure of driving behaviour based on the risk of a casualty crash for assessing the effectiveness of a PAYD scheme on reducing driving risks. The results show that in many cases personalised feedback alone is sufficient to induce significant changes, but the largest reductions in risk are observed when drivers are also awarded a financial incentive to change behaviour. Importantly, the more frequent the exposure to the speeding information, the greater the magnitude of the change. However, the changes are disproportionately associated with those that were already safer drivers in the baseline period suggesting that some drivers may be predisposed to changing their behaviour. These results suggest that it would be beneficial to provide real-time or daily feedback on speeding behaviour in conjunction with a financial reward scheme, potentially as a component of insurance premiums. PMID:25543101

  11. Use of risk assessment to evaluate effects and plan remediation of abandoned mines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyle, T.P.

    2000-01-01

    A framework of risk assessment is elaborated for the evaluation of the effects of abandoned mines and mills. Steps in this process include environmental description, identification and characterization of sources, assessment of exposure, assessment of effects, risk characterization, and risk management of remediation. The development and use of ecological end-points for remediation is discussed in terms of the chemical constituents, toxicity tests and the biological community.

  12. Phototherapy of psoriasis - clinical aspects and risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Larkö, O

    1982-01-01

    The study gives information on the healing frequency and time to relapse in a day care centre for UVB, UVB plus dithranol, and PUVA treatment. Psoriasis treatment must be repeated for many years and a psoriasis patient must come to terms with the fact that during a substantial part of the rest of his life, he must use some type of treatment. This makes it important that the treatment is pleasant and easy to carry out. The combination of sauna and UVB in a day care centre, or treatment with home solaria fulfill these demands. In view of this background I think that UVB treatment of psoriasis could be the treatment of choice for many psoriasis patients. About 80 percent of the patients heal with this treatment. For the rest of the patients, addition of dithranol or a switch to PUVA has proven to be effective. Median time to healing was about 8 weeks with UVB and UVB + dithranol whereas 12 weeks was necessary to achieve healing among PUVA patients with a poor response to UVB given earlier. The remission times were 9, 12 and 25 weeks for UVB, UVB + dithranol and PUVA-treatment respectively. In Gothenburg, we give 35.000 UVB treatments annually. An important question is the potential hazards connected with the therapy as we know that UV radiation is carcinogenic. According to our studies, the median amount of UVB radiation actually received per year from therapy is of the same magnitude as during outdoor work or certain outdoor activities. If UVB treatment is expanded we can expect an increased incidence of skin cancer of squamous cell type among this type of psoriasis patient even if the retrospective study we made showed no increased risk among people extensively treated with UVB in the past. The risk for psoriasis patients on a life long UVB treatment will probably be of the same order of magnitude as for outdoor workers. In comparison with other every day risks, the risk of dying from a skin cancer seems to be negligible. Regular check-ups by a dermatologist can

  13. Evaluating Anthropogenic Risk of Grassland and Forest Habitat Degradation Using Land-Cover Data

    EPA Science Inventory

    The effects of landscape context on habitat quality are receiving increased attention in conservation biology. The objective of this research is to demonstrate an approach to mapping and evaluating the anthropogenic risks of grassland and forest habitat degradation by examining ...

  14. PHILADELPHIA AIR TOXICS STUDY: EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT OPTIONS USING MIRA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Evaluation of risk management options usually takes place within single programs at the U.S. EPA. This can produce inadvertent tradeoffs among important criteria by risk managers and other decision makers; resulting in decision surprises. This study is a demonstration of a diff...

  15. EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

    SciTech Connect

    Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

    2000-05-01

    Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations.

  16. Perceived Risk in College Selection: Differences in Evaluative Criteria Used by Students and Parents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warwick, Jacquelyn; Mansfield, Phylis M.

    2003-01-01

    Students and parents base college selection on how well the college will overcome the perceived financial, social, psychological, physical, and functional risks associated with the college experience. Nineteen criteria associated with these risks were evaluated for significant differences between students and parents as well as for their level of…

  17. Improving Ascertainment of Risk Factors for HIV Infection: Results of a Group-Randomized Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Kathleen McDavid; Pals, Sherri L.; Sajak, Tammy; Chase, Jennifer; Kajese, Tebitha

    2010-01-01

    To allow appropriate allocation of prevention and care funding, HIV/AIDS surveillance data must include risk factor information, currently available for less than 70% of cases reported in the United States. The authors evaluated an intervention consisting of provider training and materials to improve risk factor reporting. Facilities were matched…

  18. Evaluation and use of epidemiological evidence for environmental health risk assessment: WHO guideline document.

    PubMed Central

    2000-01-01

    Environmental health risk assessment is increasingly being used in the development of environmental health policies, public health decision making, the establishment of environmental regulations, and research planning. The credibility of risk assessment depends, to a large extent, on the strength of the scientific evidence on which it is based. It is, therefore, imperative that the processes and methods used to evaluate the evidence and estimate health risks are clear, explicit, and based on valid epidemiological theory and practice. Epidemiological Evidence for Environmental Health Risk Assessment is a World Health Organization (WHO) guideline document. The primary target audiences of the guidelines are expert review groups that WHO (or other organizations) might convene in the future to evaluate epidemiological evidence on the health effects of environmental factors. These guidelines identify a set of processes and general approaches to assess available epidemiological information in a clear, consistent, and explicit manner. The guidelines should also help in the evaluation of epidemiological studies with respect to their ability to support risk assessment and, consequently, risk management. Conducting expert reviews according to such explicit guidelines would make health risk assessment and subsequent risk management and risk communication processes more readily understood and likely to be accepted by policymakers and the public. It would also make the conclusions reached by reviews more readily acceptable as a basis for future WHO guidelines and other recommendations, and would provide a more rational basis for setting priorities for future research. PMID:11049823

  19. Evaluation and use of epidemiological evidence for environmental health risk assessment: WHO guideline document.

    PubMed

    2000-10-01

    Environmental health risk assessment is increasingly being used in the development of environmental health policies, public health decision making, the establishment of environmental regulations, and research planning. The credibility of risk assessment depends, to a large extent, on the strength of the scientific evidence on which it is based. It is, therefore, imperative that the processes and methods used to evaluate the evidence and estimate health risks are clear, explicit, and based on valid epidemiological theory and practice. Epidemiological Evidence for Environmental Health Risk Assessment is a World Health Organization (WHO) guideline document. The primary target audiences of the guidelines are expert review groups that WHO (or other organizations) might convene in the future to evaluate epidemiological evidence on the health effects of environmental factors. These guidelines identify a set of processes and general approaches to assess available epidemiological information in a clear, consistent, and explicit manner. The guidelines should also help in the evaluation of epidemiological studies with respect to their ability to support risk assessment and, consequently, risk management. Conducting expert reviews according to such explicit guidelines would make health risk assessment and subsequent risk management and risk communication processes more readily understood and likely to be accepted by policymakers and the public. It would also make the conclusions reached by reviews more readily acceptable as a basis for future WHO guidelines and other recommendations, and would provide a more rational basis for setting priorities for future research. PMID:11049823

  20. Evaluating the seismic risk of mineral carbon sequestration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2013-04-01

    Geologic carbon sequestration, in which carbon is captured and stored underground, has been proposed as one way to mitigate the climatic effects of carbon dioxide emissions. One method of geologic carbon sequestration is to inject carbon dioxide in aqueous solution into rocks. However, as the solution fills the pore space in the rocks, the fluid pressure on the rocks increases, potentially increasing the risk of earthquakes. Another option would be to inject carbon dioxide solutions into mafic rocks; the silicate minerals in these rocks react with the carbon dioxide, leaving solid carbonate reaction products, which decrease the amount of pore fluid.

  1. Stroke and bleeding risk evaluation in atrial fibrillation: results of the European heart rhythm association survey.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard; Potpara, Tatjana; Dagres, Nikolaos; Pison, Laurent; Estner, Heidi; Blomström-Lundqvist, Carina

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) survey was to assess clinical practice in relation to stroke and bleeding risk evaluation in atrial fibrillation, particularly regarding the use of risk evaluation schemes, among members of the EHRA electrophysiology (EP) research network. In this EP Wire survey, we have provided some insights into current practice in Europe for the use of these risk assessment schemes. There were some obvious practice differences. However, reassuring information on current practice in Europe was evident, but more focus on renal function is warranted, especially facing the fact that novel oral anticoagulants are used for antithrombotic therapy. PMID:24798958

  2. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    MedlinePlus

    ... order blood and urine tests to check for things like electrolyte balance and the possibility of infection. You may also be evaluated using the “Get Up and Go” test, the Berg Balance Scale, or similar simple tests of mobility and balance. ...

  3. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

    PubMed Central

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-01-01

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation. PMID:26528994

  4. Basin Scale Water Infrastructure Investment Evaluation Considering Climate Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaheil, Y. H.; Lall, U.

    2009-12-01

    Water storage infrastructure has historically been a primary means of addressing vulnerability to climate risk. Rainfall, and streamflow fluctuate at many time scales, rendering supply unreliable unless a mechanism for surface or subsurface storage is provided. Irrigated agriculture typically provides dramatically higher yields relative to rain fed agriculture, by ensuring a regular, when needed water supply. Irrigation is also typically the dominant water user in most parts of the world. Addressing storage-irrigation infrastructure needs is thus a critical piece in developing a strategy for regional water and food security in the face of a changing climate. In the 20th century, large reservoir and canal system projects were funded and developed in many regions. It is argued that these played a significant role in facilitating the Green Revolution in India, Pakistan and elsewhere. However, this notion has been challenged, and many negative environmental and socio-economic impacts of such projects have been highlighted. Governance and maintenance of such hydraulic infrastructure has also been a challenge, and a paradigm of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and participatory processes has been argued for. In the last decade or so, considerable interest has been directed towards local or on-farm decentralized storage development, i.e., towards small scale reservoir and use systems where governance may be less of an issue. There has been government support of such activities in countries such as India, leading to a rapid proliferation of such systems in some areas. Questions about the effect of such development on the regional hydrologic balance and as to their resilience in a changing climate arise. Further, in the spirit of IWRM, one needs to consider the potential use of water as well as the development and management of supply. In the current context, a central question that can be posed is the identification of the best mix of centralized and

  5. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-01-01

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China. PMID:25654772

  6. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-02-01

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China. PMID:25654772

  7. The Application of a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique Used for Expendable Launch Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Latimer, John A.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.

  8. Evaluation of the relationship between periodontal risk and carotid artery calcifications on panoramic radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Kamak, Gulen; Yildirim, Eren; Rencber, Emin

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate if there is a relationship between findings of carotid artery calcification (CAC) and periodontal risk in nonsmoker subjects by using panoramic radiographs (DPR). Materials and Methods: A total of 1146 DPRs were investigated. Gender, age, severity of bone loss, tooth loss, periodontal risk, and findings of carotid calcification were recorded. The periodontal risk was evaluated and classified according to the degree of alveolar bone loss. Results: CAC was diagnosed in %13.6 (n: 156) of DPRs. Of 1146 patients, 338 (29.5%) had low, 668 (60%) had moderate, and 120 (10.5%) had high periodontal risk. A statistically significant relation was observed between carotid calcification and periodontal risk. Conclusion: Positive findings of carotid calcification may be related with periodontal problems. Clinicians must be careful about diagnosing CACs on DPRs during routine examinations. In the case of positive findings of CAC and periodontitis together, the patient may be consulted to a specialist for further investigation. PMID:26929685

  9. Evaluation of Potential Risk of Botulism from Seafood Cocktails

    PubMed Central

    Lerke, Peter

    1973-01-01

    Clostridium botulinum E could not be detected in 35 samples of commercial seafood cocktails, ranging in pH from 4.10 to 4.85. At 30 C, toxinogenesis in homogenates acidified with a citric-acetic acid mixture was prevented at pH 4.86 or lower for crabmeat and at 5.03 or lower for shrimp. Measurements of the rate of acid penetration into the centers of large pieces of flesh indicated that the already small risk of botulism from seafood cocktails could be completely eliminated by using a cocktail sauce at a maximum pH of 3.70 and by cooling the final product to at least 10 C for 24 h. PMID:4577180

  10. Development of a system to evaluate and communicate radiation risk.

    PubMed

    Wiatrowski, W A; Giles, E R; Cooke, E P

    1996-01-01

    Review of research protocols involving positron emission tomography studies on healthy volunteers focused attention on the radiation exposure disclosure statements contained in the informed consent form. Of particular concern was the observation that breast doses from positron emission tomography studies are greater than breast doses from other research uses of radioisotopes, as well as routine nuclear medicine and radiographic procedures. Disclosure of individual organ doses is not normally provided on informed consent forms. A worksheet was developed to aid research investigators in the determination of effective dose equivalents and organ dose equivalents from all sources of radiation to which a volunteer is exposed. Three standardized risk statements are discussed. The final selection and use of these statements are determined by worksheet calculations of effective dose equivalents and organ dose equivalents. PMID:7499144

  11. Development of a system to evaluate and communicate radiation risk

    SciTech Connect

    Wiatrowski, W.A.; Giles, E.R.; Cooke, E.P. |

    1996-01-01

    Review of research protocols involving positron emission tomography studies on healthy volunteers focused attention on the radiation exposure disclosure statements contained in the informed consent form. Of particular concern was the observation that breast doses from positron emission tomography studies are greater than breast doses from other research uses of radioisotopes, as well as routine nuclear medicine and radiographic procedures. Disclosure of individual organ doses is not normally provided on informed consent forms. A worksheet was developed to aid research investigators in the determination of effective dose equivalents and organ dose equivalents from all sources of radiation to which a volunteer is exposed. Three standardized risk statements are discussed. The final selection and use of these statements are determines by worksheet calculations of effective dose equivalents and organ dose equivalents. 18 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

  12. Risk Assessment of Physical Hazards in Greek Hospitals Combining Staff's Perception, Experts' Evaluation and Objective Measurements

    PubMed Central

    Sourtzi, Panayiota; Kalokairinou, Athina; Sgourou, Evi; Koumoulas, Emmanouel; Velonakis, Emmanouel

    2011-01-01

    Objectives The promotion of health and safety (H&S) awareness among hospital staff can be applied through various methods. The aim of this study was to assess the risk level of physical hazards in the hospital sector by combining workers' perception, experts' evaluation and objective measurements. Methods A cross-sectional study was designed using multiple triangulation. Hospital staff (n = 447) filled in an H&S questionnaire in a general hospital in Athens and an oncology one in Thessaloniki. Experts observed and filled in a checklist on H&S in the various departments of the two hospitals. Lighting, noise and microclimate measurements were performed. Results The staff's perception of risk was higher than that of the experts in many cases. The measured risk levels were low to medium. In cases of high-risk noise and lighting, staff and experts agreed. Staff's perception of risk was influenced by hospital's department, hospital's service, years of working experience and level of education. Therefore, these factors should be taken into account in future studies aimed at increasing the participation of hospital workers. Conclusion This study confirmed the usefulness of staff participation in the risk assessment process, despite the tendency for staff to overestimate the risk level of physical hazards. The combination of combining staff perception, experts' evaluation and objective measures in the risk assessment process increases the efficiency of risk management in the hospital environment and the enforcement of relevant legislation. PMID:22953210

  13. Evaluation of Cholangiocarcinoma Risk and its Related Factors in Wetland Geographical Communities of Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand.

    PubMed

    Songserm, Nopparat; Woradet, Somkiattiyos; Bureelerd, Onanong; Charoenbut, Pattaraporn

    2016-01-01

    Wetland geographical areas have a higher incidence of Opisthorchis viverrini-associated cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), confirmed by data from geographic information systems, than other areas. Behavioral data also indicate that people in these areas traditionally eat uncooked freshwater fish dishes, a vehicle for O. viverrini infection. The best approach to reducing CCA incidence is decreasing risk factors together with behavior alteration. Evaluation of CCA risk and its related factors are first needed for planning the prevention and control programs in the future. We therefore aimed to evaluate the CCA risk and explore its related factors among people in wetland communities of Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand. A cross-sectional study was conducted between July and August 2014. In total 906 participants, with informed consent, completed questionnaires. Overall risk of CCA was determined by multiplying odds ratios (ORs) of the risk factors for CCA from literature reviews. A mean score of 5.95 was applied as the cut-off point. Assessment of factors related to overall risk of CCA was accomplished using conditional logistic regression. Of all participants, 60.15% had a high level of the overall risk of CCA. Factors related to the overall risk of CCA were gender (<0.001), marital status (<0.001), perceived susceptibility (p=0.043) and prevention behavior for CCA (<0.001). In conclusion, most participants in this community had a high level of overall risk of CCA. Therefore, integrated prevention and control programs continue to be urgently required. PMID:27221857

  14. Chemical mixtures: Evaluation of risk for child-specific exposures in a multi-stressor environment

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, H.R. Abadin, H.G.

    2008-11-15

    Evaluating the health impact from exposure to chemical mixtures is multifaceted. One component is exposure. Exposure, and consequently risk assessment for mixtures and chemicals in general, are often viewed in terms of a given exposure to a given population at a given location over a given time period. However, environmental exposures are present throughout human lifetime. As a result, an evaluation of risk must include the distinctive characteristics related to chemical exposures which will impact risk depending upon the particular life stage where exposure occurs. Risks to offspring may be associated with unique exposures in utero, during infancy, childhood, or adolescent periods. For example, exposure of infants to anthropogenic chemicals via breast milk may be of concern. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) approach to evaluating risks associated with exposure to mixtures of chemicals is presented. In addition to the breast milk issues, indoor exposure to combined air pollutants, drinking water contaminants, and soil and dust contaminants are discussed. The difference between a mixture's risk evaluation for children and adults is in the distinct exposure scenarios resulting from variations in behavior, physiology, and/or pharmacokinetics between adults and children rather than in the method for the specific mixtures evaluation per se.

  15. SCOPE of Pain: An Evaluation of an Opioid Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Continuing Education Program

    PubMed Central

    Zisblatt, Lara; Ng, Pamela; Hayes, Sean M.; Peloquin, Sophie; Hardesty, Ilana; White, Julie L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective. Due to the high prevalence of prescription opioid misuse, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) mandated a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) requiring manufacturers of extended-release/long-acting (ER/LA) opioid analgesics to fund continuing education based on a FDA Blueprint. This article describes the Safe and Competent Opioid Prescribing Education (SCOPE of Pain) program, an ER/LA opioid analgesic REMS program, and its impact on clinician knowledge, confidence, attitudes, and self-reported clinical practice. Method. Participants of the 3-h SCOPE of Pain training completed pre-, immediate post- and 2-month post-assessments. Subjects. The primary target group (n = 2,850), and a subset (n = 476) who completed a 2-month post-assessment, consisted of clinicians licensed to prescribe ER/LA opioid analgesics, who care for patients with chronic pain and who completed the 3-h training between February 28, 2013 and June 13, 2014. Results. Immediately post-program, there was a significant increase in correct responses to knowledge questions (60% to 84%, P ≤ 0.02) and 87% of participants planned to make practice changes. At 2-months post-program, there continued to be a significant increase in correct responses to knowledge questions (60% to 69%, P ≤ 0.03) and 67% reported increased confidence in applying safe opioid prescribing care and 86% reported implementing practice changes. There was also an improvement in alignment of desired attitudes toward safe opioid prescribing. Conclusions. The SCOPE of Pain program improved knowledge, attitudes, confidence, and self-reported clinical practice in safe opioid prescribing. This national REMS program holds potential to improve the safe use of opioids for the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:26304703

  16. DOSE-TIME-RESPONSE MODELING FOR EVALUATING CUMULATIVE RISK OF N -METHYL CARBAMATE PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA's Office of Prevention, Pesticides, and Toxic Substances (OPPTS) is required by the Food Quality Protection Act to completely reevaluate pesticide registrations by the end of August, 2006. This evaluation must include the evaluation of cumulative and aggregate risk of compou...

  17. 75 FR 2545 - National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-15

    ... December 16-18, 2009, CERHR (74 FR 53508) convened an expert panel to conduct an updated evaluation of the... CERHR in 1998 (63 FR 68782). CERHR is a publicly accessible resource for information about adverse... Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR); Availability of the Final Expert Panel Report on...

  18. Evaluating risk communications: completing and correcting mental models of hazardous processes, Part II.

    PubMed

    Bostrom, A; Atman, C J; Fischhoff, B; Morgan, M G

    1994-10-01

    We propose a decision-analytic framework, called the mental models approach, for evaluating the impact of risk communications. It employs multiple evaluation methods, including think-aloud protocol analysis, problem solving, and a true-false test that allows respondents to express uncertainty about their answers. The approach is illustrated in empirical comparisons of three brochures about indoor radon. PMID:7800863

  19. Dental fluorosis in Chilean children: evaluation of risk factors.

    PubMed

    Villa, A E; Guerrero, S; Icaza, G; Villalobos, J; Anabalón, M

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this case-control study was to determine the association between very-mild-to-moderate enamel fluorosis and exposure during early childhood to fluoridated water, mainly through ingestion of powdered milk. Analysis was performed on 136 residents of the optimally fluoridated community of San Felipe in the Chilean Fifth Region, who were categorised into one of three groups according to their age when water fluoridation was introduced in 1986: Group I was born after 1986; Group II was 16-24 months old in 1986; and Group III was >24 months of age. The case and control subjects were selected on the basis of a clinical examination given in July 1996. Dean's scoring system was used to determine fluorosis status. Risk factor exposure was ascertained by a questionnaire used in interviews with mothers of participating children. Logistic regression analysis, after adjustment for confounding variables, revealed that very-mild-to-moderate enamel fluorosis of permanent central maxillary incisors (CMI) was strongly associated both with the age of the subjects when water fluoridation began and with breast-feeding duration for children belonging to Group I. Subjects in Group I were 20.44 times more likely (95% CI: 5.00-93.48) to develop CMI fluorosis than children who were older than 24 months (Group III) when fluoridation began. Subjects who were between 16 and 24 months old when water fluoridation began were 4.15 times more likely (95% CI: 1.05-16.43) to have CMI fluorosis than children older than 24 months. An inverse association was found with breastfeeding duration (OR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.75-0.98) among Group I subjects but not in Groups II and III. Results obtained suggest that the current fluoride concentration in drinking water may be contributing to fluorosis. Further studies will be necessary to determine the relative competing risks of dental fluorosis and dental caries in Chilean children in order to establish the most appropriate water fluoridation level in

  20. Risk evaluation - conventional and low level effects of radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, V.P.; Varma, M.N.

    1984-04-01

    Any discussion of the risk of exposure to potentially-hazardous agents in the environment inevitably involves the question of whether the dose effect curve is of the threshold or linear, non-threshold type. A principal objective of this presentation is to show that the function is actually two separate relationships, each representing distinctly different functions with differing variables on the axes, and each characteristic of quite different functions with differing variables on the axes, and each characteristic of quite different disciplines (i.e., the threshold function, of Pharmacology, Toxicology and Medicine (PTM); the linear, non-threshold function, of Public Health including safety and accident statistics (PHS)). It is shown that low-level exposure (LLE) to radiation falls clearly in the PHS category. A function for cell dose vs. the fraction of single cell quantal responses is characterized, which reflects the absolute and relative sensitivities of cells. Acceptance of this function would obviate any requirement for the use in Radiation Protection of the concepts of a standard radiation, Q, dose equivalent and rem. 9 references, 4 figures.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment for comparative evaluation of security features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saksena, Anshu; Lucarelli, Dennis

    2004-06-01

    A systematic approach for comparing the effectiveness of counterfeit deterrence features in banknotes, credit cards, digital media, etc. was previously presented. That approach built a probabilistic model around the expert identification of the most efficient process by which a counterfeiter can gain sufficient information to replicate a particular feature. We have extended the scope and functionality of that approach to encompass the entire counterfeiting process from the learning phase to the production of counterfeits. The extended approach makes determining the probabilities more straightforward by representing a more detailed model of the counterfeiting process, including many probable counterfeiting scenarios rather than just representing the least costly successful scenario. It uses the counterfeiter's probability of succeeding and level of effort as metrics to perform feature comparisons. As before, these metrics are evaluated for a security feature and presented in a way that facilitates comparison with other security features similarly evaluated. Based on this representation, the cost and laboratory procedures necessary for succeeding may be recovered by a dynamic programming technique. This information may be useful in forensic profiling of potential counterfeiters.

  2. Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2015-04-01

    Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  3. Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework.

    PubMed

    Birnbaum, Marvin L; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P; Loretti, Alessandro

    2016-06-01

    A disaster is a failure of resilience to an event. Mitigating the risks that a hazard will progress into a destructive event, or increasing the resilience of a society-at-risk, requires careful analysis, planning, and execution. The Disaster Logic Model (DLM) is used to define the value (effects, costs, and outcome(s)), impacts, and benefits of interventions directed at risk reduction. A Risk-Reduction Framework, based on the DLM, details the processes involved in hazard mitigation and/or capacity-building interventions to augment the resilience of a community or to decrease the risk that a secondary event will develop. This Framework provides the structure to systematically undertake and evaluate risk-reduction interventions. It applies to all interventions aimed at hazard mitigation and/or increasing the absorbing, buffering, or response capacities of a community-at-risk for a primary or secondary event that could result in a disaster. The Framework utilizes the structure provided by the DLM and consists of 14 steps: (1) hazards and risks identification; (2) historical perspectives and predictions; (3) selection of hazard(s) to address; (4) selection of appropriate indicators; (5) identification of current resilience standards and benchmarks; (6) assessment of the current resilience status; (7) identification of resilience needs; (8) strategic planning; (9) selection of an appropriate intervention; (10) operational planning; (11) implementation; (12) assessments of outputs; (13) synthesis; and (14) feedback. Each of these steps is a transformation process that is described in detail. Emphasis is placed on the role of Coordination and Control during planning, implementation of risk-reduction/capacity building interventions, and evaluation. Birnbaum ML , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP , Loretti A . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):309-325. PMID:27033777

  4. Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

    1985-11-01

    The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs.

  5. Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik

    2016-04-01

    The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition

  6. Evaluating the risk of climate change to nuclear waste disposal

    SciTech Connect

    Craig, R.G.

    1988-07-01

    A hierarchy of models is being developed to represent the changes in climate that could occur in the next 10,000 years at proposed nuclear waste repository sites in the US. Three levels of modeling of the global aspects of climate change are included. At the broadest level a multitude of theoretical representations are being considered, most based upon the Milankovitch theory. A set of at least 150 situations will be examined, and those of concern for site stability will be screened for more thorough analysis at the next level of detail. The screening criteria include estimation of the probability of the event; the level of probability which must be considered (0.0001) requires use of the most detailed paleoclimatic records available. Uncertainty in the results will be evaluated by comparison of model reconstructions to the paleoclimatic record and by Monte Carlo analyses.

  7. Active Smoking, Passive Smoking, and Breast Cancer Risk: Findings from the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yingsong; Kikuchi, Shogo; Tamakoshi, Koji; Wakai, Kenji; Kondo, Takaaki; Niwa, Yoshimitsu; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Nishio, Kazuko; Suzuki, Sadao; Tokudome, Shinkan; Yamamoto, Akio; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Mori, Mitsuru; Tamakoshi, Akiko

    2008-01-01

    Background Evidence is lacking regarding the relationship between cigarette smoking and breast cancer in Japanese women. We examined the association between breast cancer incidence and active and passive smoking in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk. Methods Our study comprised 34,401 women aged 40-79 years who had not been diagnosed previously with breast cancer and who provided information on smoking status at baseline (1988-1990). The subjects were followed from enrollment until December 31, 2001. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association between breast cancer incidence and tobacco smoke. Results During 271,412 person-years of follow-up, we identified 208 incident cases of breast cancer. Active smoking did not increase the risk of breast cancer, with a HR for current smokers of 0.67 (95% CI: 0.32-1.38). Furthermore, an increased risk of breast cancer was not observed in current smokers who smoked a greater number of cigarettes each day. Overall, passive smoking at home or in public spaces was also not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer among nonsmokers. Women who reported passive smoking during childhood had a statistically insignificant increase in risk (HR: 1.24; 95% CI: 0.84-1.85), compared with those who had not been exposed during this time. Conclusion Smoking may not be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer in this cohort of Japanese women. PMID:18403857

  8. Risk Evaluation for CO{sub 2} Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup

    SciTech Connect

    Leetaru, Hannes

    2014-01-31

    This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i

  9. Risk Evaluation for CO2 Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup, Illinois Basin Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Hnottavange-Telleen, Ken; Leetaru, Hannes

    2014-09-30

    This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i.e., persistently

  10. [Evaluation of aerogenic occupational health risk for workers engaged into periclase-carbon refractories production].

    PubMed

    Drugova, O G; Roslyĭ, O F

    2014-01-01

    The work is aimed to evaluate aerogenic occupational health risk for workers engaged into preparation and formation of technologic mass in periclase-carbon refractories production, using organic binding agent according to criteria R 2.2.2006-05 and R 2.2.1716-03. Occupational dust is a complicated chemical mixture containing manganum oxide, phenol, formaldehyde, aerosols containing silicon, benzpyrene (if "Carbores" binding agent used). Hygienic evaluation revealed occupational health risk due to occupational dust at workplaces of runners operator, press operator, batching feeder, crane operator. Aerogenic occupational risk at workplace of grinder operator is assessed as negligibly small (tolerable). Experimental and epidemiologic studies prove probable (proof category 1B) occupational risk of respiratory disease at the studied production. PMID:25282807

  11. A database for evaluating the toxicological risk of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Mazzullo, M; Mesirca, R; Paolini, M; Cantelli-Forti, G; Perocco, P; Ciaccia, P; Grilli, S

    1997-01-01

    This study of Overtox-DB, a computerized database for managing chemical toxicity data, is a product of the application of typical methodologies regarding information science and computer technology. The methodology applied can be reduced to three-basic elements: the collection of requirements, design, and achievement. Overtox-DB was developed by defining technological elements for managing data and its structure and by identifing the procedures and methodologies for data storage, retrieval, distribution, and standardization of many kinds of test data stored in the same format. The program stores data about chemical identification, physical and chemical properties, toxicological tests, mutagenicity, teratogenicity, carcinogenicity, and a bibliography of chemical compounds. Overtox-DB consists of five modules: experimental and bibliographic, data collection, molecular data collection, data search, and data report. The Overtox-DB user responds to a simplified set of query commands and boolean operators that interact with the system to retrieve different toxicological data (the majority of fields are defined as search fields and identify the test system, results of the assays, administration route, dose, etc.). The collected information provides an analytical characterization of biological activities for many compounds and identifies evidence possibly lacking in experimental approaches. Indeed, this database could permit a comparative evaluation with other substances and can be used for structure-activity relationship studies. PMID:9276008

  12. Uncertainties in evaluation of hazard and seismic risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen; Manea, Elena-Florinela

    2015-04-01

    Two methods are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment: probabilistic (PSHA) and deterministic(DSHA) seismic hazard analysis.Selection of a ground motion for engineering design requires a clear understanding of seismic hazard and risk among stakeholders, seismologists and engineers. What is wrong with traditional PSHA or DSHA ? PSHA common used in engineering is using four assumptions developed by Cornell in 1968:(1)-Constant-in-time average occurrence rate of earthquakes; (2)-Single point source; (3).Variability of ground motion at a site is independent;(4)-Poisson(or "memory - less") behavior of earthquake occurrences. It is a probabilistic method and "when the causality dies, its place is taken by probability, prestigious term meant to define the inability of us to predict the course of nature"(Nils Bohr). DSHA method was used for the original design of Fukushima Daichii, but Japanese authorities moved to probabilistic assessment methods and the probability of exceeding of the design basis acceleration was expected to be 10-4-10-6 . It was exceeded and it was a violation of the principles of deterministic hazard analysis (ignoring historical events)(Klügel,J,U, EGU,2014, ISSO). PSHA was developed from mathematical statistics and is not based on earthquake science(invalid physical models- point source and Poisson distribution; invalid mathematics; misinterpretation of annual probability of exceeding or return period etc.) and become a pure numerical "creation" (Wang, PAGEOPH.168(2011),11-25). An uncertainty which is a key component for seismic hazard assessment including both PSHA and DSHA is the ground motion attenuation relationship or the so-called ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) which describes a relationship between a ground motion parameter (i.e., PGA,MMI etc.), earthquake magnitude M, source to site distance R, and an uncertainty. So far, no one is taking into consideration strong nonlinear behavior of soils during of strong earthquakes. But

  13. Evaluating criticality safety of TRU waste with NDA measurements and risk analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Hochel, R.C.; Hofstetter, K.J.; Sigg, R.A.; Winn, W.G.; Chay, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The criticality safety of {sup 239}Pu in 55-gal. drums stored in TRU waste containers (concrete culverts) was evaluated using NDA neutron and gamma measurements and risk analyses. The neutron measurements yielded a {sup 239}Pu mass and k{sub eff} for a culvert, which contains up to 14 drums. The gamma measurements helped reveal and correct for any interfering neutron sources in the waste. Conservation probabilistic risk analyses were developed for both drums and culverts.

  14. Evaluation of exploration and risk assessment in pre-weaning mice using the novel cage test.

    PubMed

    Marques, Joana M; Olsson, I Anna S; Ogren, Sven Ove; Dahlborn, Kristina

    2008-01-28

    Exploration and risk behaviour (risk assessment/risk taking) are critical to enable mice to cope with novel situations and gain control over their environment. Evaluation of those behaviours would therefore be a useful part of early phenotypic characterization of genetically modified mice, allowing early detection of behavioural phenotypes that require special attention and/or are of scientific interest. This study aimed to evaluate exploration and risk behaviour in pre-weaning mice using the novel cage test, which consists in exploration of a novel, clean, Makrolon type III cage. The results of this test were compared with those obtained in more complex and established tests to which the same mice were subjected as adolescents and young adults. Mice of two inbred strains (129S6/Bkl, n=10; C57BL/6Bkl, n=10) and one hybrid (B6CBAF1/Bkl, n=10) were used for validation of the test. The animals were tested in the novel cage (at weaning), the open field test (at 5 weeks), and from 9 weeks of age in three other tests: the elevated plus-maze, the concentric square field and the rat exposure test. The novel cage test effectively detected strain differences in pre-weaning mice as regards exploration and risk behaviour and the results were largely consistent with those obtained in the established tests later in life. In all tests 129S6 displayed a low locomotion and high risk assessment, while C57BL/6 and B6CBAF1 showed high locomotion and exploration. In addition high levels of risk taking were observed in C57BL/6. The novel cage test is rapid, requires no special equipment and is as discriminatory as more complex tests in detecting strain/genotype differences. This suggests that the novel cage test is a valuable tool for evaluation of exploration, risk assessment and risk taking in juvenile mice. PMID:17888463

  15. Benefit-risk Evaluation for Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME).

    PubMed

    Evans, Scott R; Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Jiang, Hongyu; Hujer, Andrea M; Hujer, Kristine M; Manca, Claudia; Hill, Carol; Jacobs, Michael R; Chen, Liang; Patel, Robin; Kreiswirth, Barry N; Bonomo, Robert A

    2016-09-15

    The medical community needs systematic and pragmatic approaches for evaluating the benefit-risk trade-offs of diagnostics that assist in medical decision making. Benefit-Risk Evaluation of Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME) is a strategy for pragmatic evaluation of diagnostics designed to supplement traditional approaches. BED-FRAME evaluates diagnostic yield and addresses 2 key issues: (1) that diagnostic yield depends on prevalence, and (2) that different diagnostic errors carry different clinical consequences. As such, evaluating and comparing diagnostics depends on prevalence and the relative importance of potential errors. BED-FRAME provides a tool for communicating the expected clinical impact of diagnostic application and the expected trade-offs of diagnostic alternatives. BED-FRAME is a useful fundamental supplement to the standard analysis of diagnostic studies that will aid in clinical decision making. PMID:27193750

  16. U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    SciTech Connect

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J.; Scofield, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

  17. Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

    SciTech Connect

    Dudley, E.C.

    1998-05-01

    On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

  18. Implementing relative risk site evaluation at USAF and Corps of Engineers (FUDS) installations

    SciTech Connect

    Sharma, S.K.; Edwards, S.

    1995-12-31

    The Department of Defense (DoD) has developed the Relative Risk Site Evaluation Framework as a means for categorizing sites and Areas of Concern (AOCs) in the Defense Environmental Restoration Program (DERP) into High, Medium, and Low relative risk groups. This framework is being pursued, in concert with regulators and communities to sequence work in the DERP. Its goal is to ensure that sites with higher risk (relative to other sites) are generally considered first in the priority setting process. DoD is pursuing the use of relative risk, in conjunction with other risk management concerns (e.g., regulatory agreement status of sites, public health recommendations), to help in the sequencing of remedial work.

  19. Case‐mix adjustment in non‐randomised observational evaluations: the constant risk fallacy

    PubMed Central

    Nicholl, Jon

    2007-01-01

    Observational studies comparing groups or populations to evaluate services or interventions usually require case‐mix adjustment to account for imbalances between the groups being compared. Simulation studies have, however, shown that case‐mix adjustment can make any bias worse. One reason this can happen is if the risk factors used in the adjustment are related to the risk in different ways in the groups or populations being compared, and ignoring this commits the “constant risk fallacy”. Case‐mix adjustment is particularly prone to this problem when the adjustment uses factors that are proxies for the real risk factors. Interactions between risk factors and groups should always be examined before case‐mix adjustment in observational studies. PMID:17933961

  20. A Different Perspective on Empowerment in Evaluation: Benefits and Risks to the Evaluation Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Patricia D.; Backus, Cheryl A.

    1995-01-01

    The phenomenon of empowerment in evaluation is examined by hypothesizing possible benefits and harms that may accrue from the program development process and the impact both may have on the evaluation. The evaluation of the Health Care Intervention Service of New York State offers an example. (SLD)

  1. Non-invasive evaluation of arrhythmic risk in dilated cardiomyopathy: From imaging to electrocardiographic measures

    PubMed Central

    Iacoviello, Massimo; Monitillo, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    Malignant ventricular arrhythmias are a major adverse event and worsen the prognosis of patients affected by ischemic and non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy. The main parameter currently used to stratify arrhythmic risk and guide decision making towards the implantation of a cardioverter defibrillator is the evaluation of the left ventricular ejection fraction. However, this strategy is characterized by several limitations and consequently additional parameters have been suggested in order to improve arrhythmic risk stratification. The aim of this review is to critically revise the prognostic significance of non-invasive diagnostic tools in order to better stratify the arrhythmic risk prognosis of dilated cardiomyopathy patients. PMID:25068017

  2. Benchmarking on the evaluation of major accident-related risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Fabbri, Luciano; Contini, Sergio

    2009-03-15

    This paper summarises the main results of a European project BEQUAR (Benchmarking Exercise in Quantitative Area Risk Assessment in Central and Eastern European Countries). This project is among the first attempts to explore how independent evaluations of the same risk study associated with a certain chemical establishment could differ from each other and the consequent effects on the resulting area risk estimate. The exercise specifically aimed at exploring the manner and degree to which independent experts may disagree on the interpretation of quantitative risk assessments for the same entity. The project first compared the results of a number of independent expert evaluations of a quantitative risk assessment study for the same reference chemical establishment. This effort was then followed by a study of the impact of the different interpretations on the estimate of the overall risk on the area concerned. In order to improve the inter-comparability of the results, this exercise was conducted using a single tool for area risk assessment based on the ARIPAR methodology. The results of this study are expected to contribute to an improved understanding of the inspection criteria and practices used by the different national authorities responsible for the implementation of the Seveso II Directive in their countries. The activity was funded under the Enlargement and Integration Action of the Joint Research Centre (JRC), that aims at providing scientific and technological support for promoting integration of the New Member States and assisting the Candidate Countries on their way towards accession to the European Union. PMID:18657363

  3. A methodology for evaluating the reliability and risk of structures under complex service environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

    1990-01-01

    The theoretical basis and numerical implementation of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress; Cruse et al., 1988), a computer code for probabilistic structural analyses of aerospace components, are described, with an emphasis on the use of NESSUS for reliability and risk assessment. Topics addressed include the structure of NESSUS, the material-properties model, computational procedures, probabilistic models of fatigue-crack initiation, risk/cost evaluation, fatigue-fracture analyses, and fatigue-crack propagation. Numerical results from typical applications are presented in extensive graphs and briefly characterized; the usefulness of NESSUS predictions for establishing inspection and retirement schedules and for component certification is indicated.

  4. A methodology for evaluating the reliability and risk of structures under complex service environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

    1990-01-01

    The theoretical basis and numerical implementation of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), a computer code for probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components, are described, with an emphasis on the use of NESSUS for reliability and risk assessment. Topics addressed include the structure of probabilistic models of fatigue-crack initiation, risk/cost evaluation, fatigue-fracture analysis, and fatigue-crack initiation. Numerical results from typical applications are presented in graphs and briefly characterized. The usefulness of NESSUS predictions for establishing inspection and retirement schedules and for component certification is indicated.

  5. Evaluation of eye injury risk from projectile shooting toys using the focus headform - biomed 2009.

    PubMed

    Bisplinghoff, Jill A; Duma, Stefan M

    2009-01-01

    Half of eye injuries in the United States are caused by a blunt impact and more specifically, eye injuries effecting children often result from projectile shooting toys. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk of eye injuries of currently available projectile shooting toys. In order to assess the risk of each toy, a Facial and Ocular Countermeasure Safety (FOCUS) headform was used to measure the force applied to the eye during each hit for a total of 18 tests. The selected toys included a dart gun, a foam launcher, and a ball launcher. The force ranged from 4-93 N and was analyzed using the injury risk function for globe rupture for the FOCUS headform. Projectile characteristics were also examined using normalized energy to determine risk of corneal abrasion, hyphema, lens dislocation, retinal damage and globe rupture. It was found that the three toys tested produced peak loads corresponding with risk of globe rupture between 0% and 17.3%. The normalized energy results show no risk of hyphema, lens dislocation, retinal damage or globe rupture and a maximum risk of corneal abrasion of 5.9%. This study concludes that although there are many eye injuries caused by projectiles, the selected toys show a very low risk of eye injury. PMID:19369748

  6. Evaluating Uncertainty to Strengthen Epidemiologic Data for Use in Human Health Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Burns, Carol J.; Wright, J. Michael; Bateson, Thomas F.; Burstyn, Igor; Goldstein, Daniel A.; Klaunig, James E.; Luben, Thomas J.; Mihlan, Gary; Ritter, Leonard; Schnatter, A. Robert; Symons, J. Morel; Don Yi, Kun

    2014-01-01

    Background: There is a recognized need to improve the application of epidemiologic data in human health risk assessment especially for understanding and characterizing risks from environmental and occupational exposures. Although there is uncertainty associated with the results of most epidemiologic studies, techniques exist to characterize uncertainty that can be applied to improve weight-of-evidence evaluations and risk characterization efforts. Methods: This report derives from a Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) workshop held in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, to discuss the utility of using epidemiologic data in risk assessments, including the use of advanced analytic methods to address sources of uncertainty. Epidemiologists, toxicologists, and risk assessors from academia, government, and industry convened to discuss uncertainty, exposure assessment, and application of analytic methods to address these challenges. Synthesis: Several recommendations emerged to help improve the utility of epidemiologic data in risk assessment. For example, improved characterization of uncertainty is needed to allow risk assessors to quantitatively assess potential sources of bias. Data are needed to facilitate this quantitative analysis, and interdisciplinary approaches will help ensure that sufficient information is collected for a thorough uncertainty evaluation. Advanced analytic methods and tools such as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and Bayesian statistical techniques can provide important insights and support interpretation of epidemiologic data. Conclusions: The discussions and recommendations from this workshop demonstrate that there are practical steps that the scientific community can adopt to strengthen epidemiologic data for decision making. Citation: Burns CJ, Wright JM, Pierson JB, Bateson TF, Burstyn I, Goldstein DA, Klaunig JE, Luben TJ, Mihlan G, Ritter L, Schnatter AR, Symons JM, Yi KD. 2014. Evaluating uncertainty to strengthen

  7. Evaluation of the predictability of real-time crash risk models.

    PubMed

    Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei

    2016-09-01

    The primary objective of the present study was to investigate the predictability of crash risk models that were developed using high-resolution real-time traffic data. More specifically the present study sought answers to the following questions: (a) how to evaluate the predictability of a real-time crash risk model; and (b) how to improve the predictability of a real-time crash risk model. The predictability is defined as the crash probability given the crash precursor identified by the crash risk model. An equation was derived based on the Bayes' theorem for estimating approximately the predictability of crash risk models. The estimated predictability was then used to quantitatively evaluate the effects of the threshold of crash precursors, the matched and unmatched case-control design, and the control-to-case ratio on the predictability of crash risk models. It was found that: (a) the predictability of a crash risk model can be measured as the product of prior crash probability and the ratio between sensitivity and false alarm rate; (b) there is a trade-off between the predictability and sensitivity of a real-time crash risk model; (c) for a given level of sensitivity, the predictability of the crash risk model that is developed using the unmatched case-controlled sample is always better than that of the model developed using the matched case-controlled sample; and (d) when the control-to-case ratio is beyond 4:1, the increase in control-to-case ratio does not lead to clear improvements in predictability. PMID:27332063

  8. Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2012-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

  9. Evaluation of vegetable production management practices to reduce the ecological risk of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Rice, Pamela J; Hapeman, Cathleen J; McConnell, Laura L; Sadeghi, Ali M; Teasdale, John R; Coffman, C Benjamin; McCarty, Gregory W; Abdul-Baki, Aref A; Starr, James L

    2007-11-01

    The ability of agricultural management practices to reduce the ecological risks of pesticides was evaluated. Risk quotients, a mathematical description of the relationship between exposure and toxicity, and hazard ratings, a rank of the potential risk of pesticides to aquatic environments, were calculated for conventional and alternative cultivation practices for tomatoes: Poly-Bare, raised beds covered with polyethylene mulch with bare-soil furrows; Poly-Rye, raised beds covered with polyethylene mulch with cereal rye (Secale cereale) grown in the furrows; and Vetch, raised beds and furrows planted with hairy vetch seed (Vicia villosa). Evaluations were conducted using measured pesticide concentrations in runoff at the edge-of-field and estimated environmental concentrations in an adjacent creek and a theoretical pond receiving the runoff. Runoff from Poly-Bare presented the greatest risk to ecosystem health and to sensitive organisms, whereas the use of Vetch minimized these risks. Previous studies have shown that harvest yields were maintained and that runoff volume, soil loss, and off-site transport of pesticides measured in runoff were reduced using the alternative management practices (Poly-Rye and Vetch). Together, these results indicate that the alternative management practices (Poly-Rye and Vetch) have a less adverse impact on the environment than the conventional management practice (Poly-Bare) while providing growers with an acceptable economic return. In addition, the present study demonstrates the need to consider the management practice when assessing the potential risks and hazards for certain pesticides. PMID:17941735

  10. Dipyridamole-thallium scanning in patients undergoing vascular surgery. Optimizing preoperative evaluation of cardiac risk

    SciTech Connect

    Eagle, K.A.; Singer, D.E.; Brewster, D.C.; Darling, R.C.; Mulley, A.G.; Boucher, C.A.

    1987-04-24

    Dipyridamole-thallium imaging has been suggested as a method of preoperatively assessing cardiac risk in patients undergoing major surgery. To define more clearly its proper role in preoperative assessment, we prospectively evaluated 111 patients undergoing vascular surgery. In the first set of 61 patients, our data confirmed the value of preoperative dipyridamole-thallium scanning in identifying the patients who suffered postoperative ischemic events. Events occurred in eight of 18 patients with reversible defects on preoperative imaging, compared with no events in 43 patients with no thallium redistribution (confidence interval for the risk difference: 0.624, 0.256). The results also suggested that clinical factors might allow identification of a low-risk subset of patients. To test the hypothesis that patients with no evidence of congestive heart failure, angina, prior myocardial infarction, or diabetes do not require further preoperative testing, we evaluated an additional 50 patients having vascular procedures. None of the 23 without the clinical markers had untoward outcomes, while ten of 27 patients with one or more of these clinical markers suffered postoperative ischemic events (confidence interval for the risk difference: 0.592, 0.148). In the clinical high-risk subset, further risk stratification is achieved with dipyridamole-thallium scanning.

  11. A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention.

    PubMed

    Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

    2010-01-01

    Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan's current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 x 10(-8) (95th percentile: 3.20 x 10(-7)). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

  12. Evaluation of Chair-Side Assays in High Microbiological Caries-Risk Subjects.

    PubMed

    Saravia, Marta Estela; Silva, Lea Assed Bezerra; Silva, Raquel Assed Bezerra; Lucisano, Marília Pacífico; Echevarría, Andrea Uribe; Echevarría, Jorge Uribe; Nelson-Filho, Paulo

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the commercial chair-side assays Saliva-Check Mutans and ClinproTM Cario L-PopTM in high microbiological caries-risk dental students compared with conventional semi-quantitative colony counting culture-based technique as the reference method. Saliva samples from 93 subjects of both sexes aged 18-26 years were seeded (Köhler and Bratthall method) on plates containing SB-20M culture medium method and 12 subjects with high caries risk were selected. These 12 individuals were subjected to determination of caries risk using two commercial rapid detection chair-side assays (Saliva-Check Mutans and ClinproTM Cario L-PopTM) according to the manufacturers' instructions. The results were analyzed by the Kappa correlation test using SAS statistical software. There was a perfect agreement (Kappa=1) among the three caries risk evaluation methods - chair-side assays and semi-quantitative CFU count (control) - in all subjects. The results suggest that the commercial chair-side assays evaluated in this study may be practical and useful to identify high microbiological caries-risk subjects. PMID:26963201

  13. Risk-Based Evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Vapor Intrusion Studies

    PubMed Central

    Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum. PMID:23765191

  14. [Psychosocial Risk Evaluation in the Workplace: Expert-based Development of a Checklist for Occupational Physicians].

    PubMed

    Weigl, M; Müller, A; Angerer, P; Petru, R

    2016-03-01

    The implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at the workplace often fails in practice. One reason is the lack of competence of those who are in charge of the process. We present a checklist for the effective implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at workplace. This tool shall support occupational physicians in the preparation, planning and implementation of a psychosocial risks assessment process. Based on a stepwise development and validation process, specific steps and factors for the successful implementation were identified qualitatively with 15 occupational physicians and experts. This was conducted in a 2-stage Delphi study. In the following, the identified steps and factors were transferred into a checklist. Subsequently, the checklist was evaluated in a focus group of occupational physicians (user evaluation). Thereafter, the contents were subjected to an expert evaluation. Our checklist for the effective implementation of the process of psychosocial risk management in the workplace aims to strengthen the competence of occupational physicians, especially in the implementation of risk assessments in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). PMID:26335655

  15. Risk-based evaluation of total petroleum hydrocarbons in vapor intrusion studies.

    PubMed

    Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

    2013-06-01

    This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum. PMID:23765191

  16. Evaluation of the risk factors for febrile neutropenia associated with hematological malignancy.

    PubMed

    Nakagawa, Yasunori; Suzuki, Kenshi; Masaoka, Toru

    2009-06-01

    Febrile neutropenia (FN) can frequently become a very serious problem. In 2002, Klastersky and colleagues established the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) score, which consisted of risk factors for conditions that included solid tumors. However, hematopoietic tumors, in comparison to solid tumors, are plagued by such problems as the quantity and quality of abnormalities associated with leukocytes and neutrophils and the requirement for higher dosages of both radio- and chemotherapy. FN is a complication associated with hematological malignancies that can lead to a fatal outcome, but it is avoidable if the appropriate preventive treatment is performed at an early stage. The subjects of the present study consisted of 354 patients with hematopoietic malignancies who were treated at the Japanese Red Cross Medical Center Hospital, Tokyo, between August 2000 and September 2004. They were retrospectively evaluated for the risk factors of FN by applying Wilcoxon's rank sum test. A scoring index was defined and the patients were classified into high- and low-risk groups before evaluation. The following nine risk factors, which may significantly influence the relationship between the time required for defervescence and the duration of neutropenia - age; hematological diseases; the leukocyte count during the febrile period; the reduction in leukocyte count per day before the onset of FN; the prophylactic administration of antimycotic agents; sterilization of the intestinal tract; and urine albumin content, creatine level, and C-reactive protein (CRP) level - were expressed in points and their sum was termed risk points. The range of risk points was classified as 0-3 and 4-9. The time required for defervescence was 5.1 days when the risk points were in the range of 0-3 and 8.1 days when the points were in the range of 4-9. These figures were distributed normally and there was a significant difference between the two groups (P = 0.0016). FN

  17. Gender-based cardiometabolic risk evaluation in minority and non-minority men grading the evidence of non-traditional determinants of cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Billups, K L; Miner, M M; Wierzbicki, A S; Jackson, G

    2011-02-01

    Evaluation of cardiometabolic risk has become vital in primary prevention of adverse vascular events (coronary artery disease, heart attack, stroke or congestive heart failure), particularly in younger middle-aged men (40-60 years old). To discern the prevalence of events in these men, clinicians often stratify cardiovascular risk and treat according to traditional Framingham risk criteria. Yet it is evident that the traditional Framingham risk assigned to intermediate- and low-risk men will miss several of these individuals deemed at high 'cardiometabolic risk', also known as residual cardiovascular risk. This review will elaborate the definition of cardiometabolic risk and apply the use of surrogate markers for cardiovascular risk stratification in men in addition to the traditional Framingham-based markers. It will utilise both gender non-specific and gender-specific determinants of cardiometabolic risk. Lastly, it will examine minority men's health and racial differences in these determinants of cardiovascular risk. This analysis includes an electronic literature search utilising PubMed, EMBASE and MEDLINE databases to clarify the level of evidence for the stepwise utility of novel biomarkers for cardiometabolic risk in the male patient. This manuscript generates discussion of the utility of markers of cardiometabolic risk stratification. The following questions are summarised: (i) Are there non-traditional tests that might define this risk better than traditional markers? (ii) Will treatment based on this risk assessment augment present risk stratification and lower cardiovascular risk? (iii) What is known regarding racial differences surrounding cardiometabolic risk assessment? Traditional risk factors including Framingham Risk Score underestimate the overall 10 year and lifetime risk for the intermediate-risk younger middle-aged men<60 years of age. This fact is especially true in the minority population. We have graded the evidence of non-gender specific

  18. Evaluating the risk of patient re-identification from adverse drug event reports

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Our objective was to develop a model for measuring re-identification risk that more closely mimics the behaviour of an adversary by accounting for repeated attempts at matching and verification of matches, and apply it to evaluate the risk of re-identification for Canada’s post-marketing adverse drug event database (ADE).Re-identification is only demonstrably plausible for deaths in ADE. A matching experiment between ADE records and virtual obituaries constructed from Statistics Canada vital statistics was simulated. A new re-identification risk is considered, it assumes that after gathering all the potential matches for a patient record (all records in the obituaries that are potential matches for an ADE record), an adversary tries to verify these potential matches. Two adversary scenarios were considered: (a) a mildly motivated adversary who will stop after one verification attempt, and (b) a highly motivated adversary who will attempt to verify all the potential matches and is only limited by practical or financial considerations. Methods The mean percentage of records in ADE that had a high probability of being re-identified was computed. Results Under scenario (a), the risk of re-identification from disclosing the province, age at death, gender, and exact date of the report is quite high, but the removal of province brings down the risk significantly. By only generalizing the date of reporting to month and year and including all other variables, the risk is always low. All ADE records have a high risk of re-identification under scenario (b), but the plausibility of that scenario is limited because of the financial and practical deterrent even for highly motivated adversaries. Conclusions It is possible to disclose Canada’s adverse drug event database while ensuring that plausible re-identification risks are acceptably low. Our new re-identification risk model is suitable for such risk assessments. PMID:24094134

  19. A practical guide for the evaluation of sexual recidivism risk in mentally retarded sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Phenix, Amy; Sreenivasan, Shoba

    2009-01-01

    Although sex offender risk assessment has progressed greatly over the past decade and a half since most states implemented the sexually violent predator/sexually dangerous person (SVP/SDP) laws, there continues to be limited applicability of such models to intellectually disabled sex offenders because there has been no empirical validation. However, SVP/SDP civil commitment programs have reported increased admission of developmentally disabled sex offenders. Differentiating sexual deviance, the primary factor predisposing most individuals to criminal sexual violence, from impulsive, immature, and inappropriate behavior stemming from cognitive deficits presents yet another challenge to the clinician tasked with performing such evaluations. This article reviews actuarial risk models and their limited applicability to mentally retarded sex offenders and offers a conceptual method of assessing the risk of recidivism in intellectually disabled sex offenders under SVP/SDP evaluation. PMID:20018999

  20. Evaluation of an Alcohol Risk Reduction Program (PRIME for Life) in Young Swedish Military Conscripts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hallgren, Mats A.; Kallmen, Hakan; Leifman, Hakan; Sjolund, Torbjorn; Andreasson, Sven

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of the PRIME for Life risk reduction program in reducing alcohol consumption and improving knowledge and attitudes towards alcohol use in male Swedish military conscripts, aged 18 to 22 years. Design/methodology/approach: A quasi-experimental design was used in which 1,371…

  1. Evaluation of the "Respect Not Risk" Firearm Safety Lesson for 3rd-Graders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liller, Karen D.; Perrin, Karen; Nearns, Jodi; Pesce, Karen; Crane, Nancy B.; Gonzalez, Robin R.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the MORE HEALTH "Respect Not Risk" Firearm Safety Lesson for 3rd-graders in Pinellas County, Florida. Six schools representative of various socioeconomic levels were selected as the test sites. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected. A total of 433 matched pretests/posttests were used to…

  2. FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS FOR USE IN SAFETY OR RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    ABSTRACT

    Proposed applications of increasingly sophisticated biologically-based computational models, such as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models, raise the issue of how to evaluate whether the models are adequate for proposed uses including safety or risk ...

  3. EVALUATING A PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODEL FOR USE IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    EVALUATING A PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODEL FOR USE IN RISK ASSESSMENT. L H Clark1, H A Barton1, and R W Setzer1. 1US EPA, ORD, NHEERL, ETD, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.

    Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are increasingly being used in eva...

  4. EVALUATION AND ESTIMATION OF POTENTIAL CARCINOGENIC RISKS OF POLYNUCLEAR AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS (PAH)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The evaluation and estimation of the potential risk of human exposures to a hazardous substance requires the analysis of all relevant data to answer two questions (1) does the agent cause the effect; (2) what is the relationship between dose (exposure) and incidence of the effect...

  5. A Formative Evaluation of the Children, Youth, and Families at Risk Coaching Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olson, Jonathan R.; Smith, Burgess; Hawkey, Kyle R.; Perkins, Daniel F.; Borden, Lynne M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we describe the results of a formative evaluation of a coaching model designed to support recipients of funding through the Children, Youth, and Families at Risk (CYFAR) initiative. Results indicate that CYFAR coaches draw from a variety of types of coaching and that CYFAR principle investigators (PIs) are generally satisfied with…

  6. Nutritional evaluation of children in high-risk rural and indigenous populations in Panama

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Panama continues to have a substantial incidence of malnutrition. Among the most affected populations are children in rural areas and in indigenous populations. We evaluated nutritional status of preschool (PS) and school-aged (SA) children in two high-risk areas in Panama to determine the prevalenc...

  7. 7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. 319.59-3 Section 319.59-3 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOREIGN QUARANTINE NOTICES Wheat Diseases § 319.59-3 Articles...

  8. 7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. 319.59-3 Section 319.59-3 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOREIGN QUARANTINE NOTICES Wheat Diseases § 319.59-3 Articles...

  9. 7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. 319.59-3 Section 319.59-3 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOREIGN QUARANTINE NOTICES Wheat Diseases § 319.59-3 Articles...

  10. 7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. 319.59-3 Section 319.59-3 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOREIGN QUARANTINE NOTICES Wheat Diseases § 319.59-3 Articles...

  11. 75 FR 76995 - National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-10

    ... established the NTP Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR) in 1998 (63 FR 68782) to... Reproduction (CERHR); NTP Workshop: Role of Environmental Chemicals in the Development of Diabetes and Obesity... (collectively referred to as ``substances'') cause adverse effects on reproduction and development and...

  12. Discomfort Intolerance: Evaluation of a Potential Risk Factor for Anxiety Psychopathology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Norman B.; Richey, J. Anthony; Cromer, Kiara R.; Buckner, Julia D.

    2007-01-01

    Discomfort intolerance, defined as an individual difference in the capacity to tolerate unpleasant bodily sensations, is a construct recently posited as a risk factor for panic and anxiety psychopathology. The present report used a biological challenge procedure to evaluate whether discomfort intolerance predicts fearful responding beyond the…

  13. Serving the Needs of At-Risk Refugee Youth: A Program Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McBrien, J. Lynn

    2006-01-01

    Refugee students, although frequently subsumed under the "immigrant" heading, often suffer from effects of significant trauma that can make them more vulnerable than children of voluntary immigrant families. This study evaluated a program created specifically for refugee youth at-risk for academic failure and "social death." The program goals…

  14. Neurophysiologic Evaluation of Early Cognitive Development in High-Risk Infants and Toddlers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    deRegnier, Raye-Ann

    2005-01-01

    New knowledge of the perceptual, discriminative, and memory capabilities of very young infants has opened the door to further evaluation of these abilities in infants who have risk factors for cognitive impairments. A neurophysiologic technique that has been very useful in this regard is the recording of event-related potentials (ERPs). The…

  15. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-03

    ...The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The purpose of the public workshop is to initiate constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry, health care organizations, health......

  16. EVALUATION OF PHYSIOLOGY COMPUTER MODELS, AND THE FEASIBILITY OF THEIR USE IN RISK ASSESSMENT.

    EPA Science Inventory

    This project will evaluate the current state of quantitative models that simulate physiological processes, and the how these models might be used in conjunction with the current use of PBPK and BBDR models in risk assessment. The work will include a literature search to identify...

  17. Evaluating Programs for At-Risk Adolescents: Toward an Outcome-Based Assessment Framework

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sloat, Elizabeth A.; Audas, Richard P.; Willms, J. Douglas

    2007-01-01

    This article presents an outcome-based model for evaluating school and community programs serving at-risk adolescents, and a cost-effective technique for comparing the progress of youth receiving an intervention with youth in a pseudocontrol group. The outcomes considered most important for success were derived from the literature pertaining to…

  18. 7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. 319.59-3 Section 319.59-3 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOREIGN QUARANTINE NOTICES Wheat Diseases § 319.59-3 Articles...

  19. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. PMID:26318687

  20. [Characteristics of speciation and evaluation of ecological risk of heavy metals in sewage sludge of Guangzhou].

    PubMed

    Guo, Peng-Ran; Lei, Yong-Qian; Cai, Da-Chuan; Zhang, Tao; Wu, Rui; Pan, Jia-Chuan

    2014-02-01

    Contents of heavy metals in different sewage sludges were analyzed and the speciation distribution and bioavailability of heavy metals were investigated, and the risk assessment code (RAC) and toxicity characteristic leaching procedure for solid waste were used to evaluate the potential ecological risk and leaching toxicity risk of heavy metals in sludge samples, respectively. The results showed that contents of Cu, Cr, Pb and Zn were high and presented a great difference by different sources in sewage sludges. Most of heavy metals existed in non-residual fractions and percentages of the mobile fraction (acid soluble fraction) of heavy metals in acidic sludge were higher. According to the results of single extraction, 1 mol x L(-1) NaOAc solution (pH 5.0) and 0.02 mol x L(-1) EDTA + 0.5 mol x L(-1) NH4OAc solution (pH 4.6) were suitable for evaluating bioavailable heavy metals in acidic and alkaline sludge, respectively. Percentages of bioavailable heavy metals were higher with the stronger of sludge acidity. The mobile ability of heavy metals resulted in the high ecological risk of sludge samples, and the bioavailability of heavy metals caused acidic sludges with a very high ecological risk but alkaline sludges with the middle ecological risk. Leaching toxicity risk was very high in sludge samples except domestic sewage sludge. After the removal of bioavailable heavy metals, leaching toxicity risk of sludge samples was still high in spite of its decrease; however, part type of sludges could be implemented landfill disposal. PMID:24812965

  1. Considerations in the evaluation and determination of minimal risk in pragmatic clinical trials

    PubMed Central

    Lantos, John D.; Wendler, David; Septimus, Edward; Wahba, Sarita; Madigan, Rosemary; Bliss, Geraldine

    2015-01-01

    The classification system for categorizing the riskiness of a clinical trial is largely defined by the body of federal regulations known as the Common Rule (45 CFR 46, Subpart A) and by regulations governing the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) codified in 21 CFR 50. This rule is applied according to the interpretation of institutional review boards (IRBs) charged with overseeing the research. If a clinical trial is determined by an IRB to constitute “minimal risk,” there are important practical implications: the IRB may allow waiver or alteration of the informed consent process; the study may be carried out in certain vulnerable populations; or the study may be reviewed by IRBs using an expedited process. However, it is unclear how the risk levels of pragmatic clinical trials (PCTs) should be assessed. Such trials typically compare existing, widely used medical therapies or interventions in the setting of routine clinical practice. Some of the therapies may be considered risky of themselves but the study comparing them may or may not add to that pre-existing level of risk. In this paper, we examine current research regulations and common interpretations of those regulations and suggest that current interpretation and application of regulations governing minimal-risk classification are marked by a high degree of variability and confusion, which in turn may ultimately harm patients by delaying or hindering potentially beneficial research. We advocate for a clear differentiation between the risks associated with a given therapy and the incremental risk incurred during research evaluating those therapies as a basic principle for evaluating the risk of a clinical study. We then examine two studies that incorporate aspects of PCTs and consider how various factors including patient perspectives, clinical equipoise, practice variation, and research methods such as cluster randomization contribute to current and evolving concepts of minimal risk, and how this

  2. Identification by ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries of high-risk subjects missed by three validated cardiovascular disease risk algorithms.

    PubMed

    Postley, John E; Luo, Yanting; Wong, Nathan D; Gardin, Julius M

    2015-11-15

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events are the leading cause of death in the United States and globally. Traditional global risk algorithms may miss 50% of patients who experience ASCVD events. Noninvasive ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries can identify subjects at high risk for ASCVD events. We examined the ability of different global risk algorithms to identify subjects with femoral and/or carotid plaques found by ultrasound. The study population consisted of 1,464 asymptomatic adults (39.8% women) aged 23 to 87 years without previous evidence of ASCVD who had ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries. Three ASCVD risk algorithms (10-year Framingham Risk Score [FRS], 30-year FRS, and lifetime risk) were compared for the 939 subjects who met the algorithm age criteria. The frequency of femoral plaque as the only plaque was 18.3% in the total group and 14.8% in the risk algorithm groups (n = 939) without a significant difference between genders in frequency of femoral plaque as the only plaque. Those identified as high risk by the lifetime risk algorithm included the most men and women who had plaques either femoral or carotid (59% and 55%) but had lower specificity because the proportion of subjects who actually had plaques in the high-risk group was lower (50% and 35%) than in those at high risk defined by the FRS algorithms. In conclusion, ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries can identify subjects at risk of ASCVD events missed by traditional risk-predicting algorithms. The large proportion of subjects with femoral plaque only supports the use of including both femoral and carotid arteries in ultrasound evaluation. PMID:26434511

  3. Application of a score system to evaluate the risk of malnutrition in a multiple hospital setting

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background An increased but unpredictable risk of malnutrition is associated with hospitalization, especially in children with chronic diseases. We investigated the applicability of Screening Tool for Risk of Impaired Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), an instrument proposed to estimate the risk of malnutrition in hospitalized children. We also evaluated the role of age and co-morbidities as risk for malnutrition. Methods The STRONGkids consists of 4 items providing a score that classifies a patient in low, moderate, high risk for malnutrition. A prospective observational multi-centre study was performed in 12 Italian hospitals. Children 1–18 years consecutively admitted and otherwise unselected were enrolled. Their STRONGkids score was obtained and compared with the actual nutritional status expressed as BMI and Height for Age SD-score. Results Of 144 children (75 males, mean age 6.5 ± 4.5 years), 52 (36%) had an underlying chronic disease. According to STRONGkids, 46 (32%) children were at low risk, 76 (53%) at moderate risk and 22 (15%) at high risk for malnutrition. The latter had significantly lower Height for Age values (mean SD value -1.07 ± 2.08; p = 0.008) and BMI values (mean SD-values -0.79 ± 2.09; p = 0.0021) in comparison to other groups. However, only 29 children were actually malnourished. Conclusions The STRONGkids is easy to administer. It is highly sensitive but not specific. It may be used as a very preliminary screening tool to be integrated with other clinical data in order to reliably predict the risk of malnutrition. PMID:24373709

  4. Ethnic Background and Genetic Variation in the Evaluation of Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Jing, Lijun; Su, Li; Ring, Brian Z.

    2014-01-01

    The clinical use of genetic variation in the evaluation of cancer risk is expanding, and thus understanding how determinants of cancer susceptibility identified in one population can be applied to another is of growing importance. However there is considerable debate on the relevance of ethnic background in clinical genetics, reflecting both the significance and complexity of genetic heritage. We address this via a systematic review of reported associations with cancer risk for 82 markers in 68 studies across six different cancer types, comparing association results between ethnic groups and examining linkage disequilibrium between risk alleles and nearby genetic loci. We find that the relevance of ethnic background depends on the question. If asked whether the association of variants with disease risk is conserved across ethnic boundaries, we find that the answer is yes, the majority of markers show insignificant variability in association with cancer risk across ethnic groups. However if the question is whether a significant association between a variant and cancer risk is likely to reproduce, the answer is no, most markers do not validate in an ethnic group other than the discovery cohort’s ancestry. This lack of reproducibility is not attributable to studies being inadequately populated due to low allele frequency in other ethnic groups. Instead, differences in local genomic structure between ethnic groups are associated with the strength of association with cancer risk and therefore confound interpretation of the implied physiologic association tracked by the disease allele. This suggest that a biological association for cancer risk alleles may be broadly consistent across ethnic boundaries, but reproduction of a clinical study in another ethnic group is uncommon, in part due to confounding genomic architecture. As clinical studies are increasingly performed globally this has important implications for how cancer risk stratifiers should be studied and

  5. Evaluation of factors affecting stakeholder risk perception of contaminated sediment disposal in Oslo harbor.

    PubMed

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Ellen, Gerald Jan; Duijn, Mike

    2011-01-01

    The management of environmental pollution has changed considerably since the growth of environmental awareness in the late 1960s. The general increased environmental concern and involvement of stakeholders in today's environmental issues may enhance the need to consider risk in a much broader social context rather than just as an estimate of ecological hazard. Risk perception and the constructs and images of risks held by stakeholders and society are important items to address in the management of environmental projects, including the management of contaminated sediments. Here we present a retrospective case study that evaluates factors affecting stakeholder risk perception of contaminated sediment disposal that occurred during a remediation project in Oslo harbor, Norway. The choice to dispose dredged contaminated sediments in a confined aquatic disposal (CAD) site rather than at a land disposal site has received a lot of societal attention, attracted large media coverage, and caused many public discussions. A mixed method approach is used to investigate how risk perceptive affective factors (PAF), socio-demographic aspects, and participatory aspects have influenced the various stakeholders' preferences for the two different disposal options. Risk perceptive factors such as transparency in the decision making process and controllability of the disposal options have been identified as important for risk perception. The results of the study also support the view that there is no sharp distinction in risk perception between experts and other parties and emphasizes the importance of addressing risk perceptive affective factors in similar environmental decision-making processes. Indeed, PAFs such as transparency, openness, and information are fundamental to address in sensitive environmental decisions, such as sediment disposal alternatives, in order to progress to more technical questions such as the controllability and safety. PMID:20809566

  6. Evaluation of Major Online Diabetes Risk Calculators and Computerized Predictive Models

    PubMed Central

    Stiglic, Gregor; Pajnkihar, Majda

    2015-01-01

    Classical paper-and-pencil based risk assessment questionnaires are often accompanied by the online versions of the questionnaire to reach a wider population. This study focuses on the loss, especially in risk estimation performance, that can be inflicted by direct transformation from the paper to online versions of risk estimation calculators by ignoring the possibilities of more complex and accurate calculations that can be performed using the online calculators. We empirically compare the risk estimation performance between four major diabetes risk calculators and two, more advanced, predictive models. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 1999–2012 was used to evaluate the performance of detecting diabetes and pre-diabetes. American Diabetes Association risk test achieved the best predictive performance in category of classical paper-and-pencil based tests with an Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.699 for undiagnosed diabetes (0.662 for pre-diabetes) and 47% (47% for pre-diabetes) persons selected for screening. Our results demonstrate a significant difference in performance with additional benefits for a lower number of persons selected for screening when statistical methods are used. The best AUC overall was obtained in diabetes risk prediction using logistic regression with AUC of 0.775 (0.734) and an average 34% (48%) persons selected for screening. However, generalized boosted regression models might be a better option from the economical point of view as the number of selected persons for screening of 30% (47%) lies significantly lower for diabetes risk assessment in comparison to logistic regression (p < 0.001), with a significantly higher AUC (p < 0.001) of 0.774 (0.740) for the pre-diabetes group. Our results demonstrate a serious lack of predictive performance in four major online diabetes risk calculators. Therefore, one should take great care and consider optimizing the online versions of questionnaires that were

  7. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  8. Epidemiological geomatics in evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan: introducing population weighted raster maps.

    PubMed

    Andersson, Neil; Mitchell, Steven

    2006-01-01

    Evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan used population weighted raster maps as an evaluation tool to assess mine education performance, coverage and costs. A stratified last-stage random cluster sample produced representative data on mine risk and exposure to education. Clusters were weighted by the population they represented, rather than the land area. A "friction surface" hooked the population weight into interpolation of cluster-specific indicators. The resulting population weighted raster contours offer a model of the population effects of landmine risks and risk education. Five indicator levels ordered the evidence from simple description of the population-weighted indicators (level 0), through risk analysis (levels 1-3) to modelling programme investment and local variations (level 4). Using graphic overlay techniques, it was possible to metamorphose the map, portraying the prediction of what might happen over time, based on the causality models developed in the epidemiological analysis. Based on a lattice of local site-specific predictions, each cluster being a small universe, the "average" prediction was immediately interpretable without losing the spatial complexity. PMID:16390549

  9. Epidemiological geomatics in evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan: introducing population weighted raster maps

    PubMed Central

    Andersson, Neil; Mitchell, Steven

    2006-01-01

    Evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan used population weighted raster maps as an evaluation tool to assess mine education performance, coverage and costs. A stratified last-stage random cluster sample produced representative data on mine risk and exposure to education. Clusters were weighted by the population they represented, rather than the land area. A "friction surface" hooked the population weight into interpolation of cluster-specific indicators. The resulting population weighted raster contours offer a model of the population effects of landmine risks and risk education. Five indicator levels ordered the evidence from simple description of the population-weighted indicators (level 0), through risk analysis (levels 1–3) to modelling programme investment and local variations (level 4). Using graphic overlay techniques, it was possible to metamorphose the map, portraying the prediction of what might happen over time, based on the causality models developed in the epidemiological analysis. Based on a lattice of local site-specific predictions, each cluster being a small universe, the "average" prediction was immediately interpretable without losing the spatial complexity. PMID:16390549

  10. Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination: A Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach Based on DRASTIC Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information. PMID:24453883

  11. Cancer risk evaluation of brick kiln workers exposed to dust bound PAHs in Punjab province (Pakistan).

    PubMed

    Kamal, Atif; Malik, Riffat Naseem; Martellini, Tania; Cincinelli, Alessandra

    2014-09-15

    Principal objective of this study was to evaluate the health risks of brick kiln workers to dust bound PAHs exposure in Punjab province (Pakistan). To this aim, surface dust samples were collected from brick kiln units located in Chung Khurd (Lahore city), Gujranwala city and Sohra village (in the vicinity of Gujranwala). The highest ΣPAH levels were measured in the dust samples collected in Sohdra village (mean 2578 ng g(-1) d.w., range 302-6757 ng g(-1) d.w.) followed by Gujranwala city (mean 957, range 16.1-1963 ng g(-1) d.w.) and Chung Khurd (mean 882, range 692-1007 ng g(-1) d.w.). Source identification using diagnostic ratios and principal component analysis identified coal and wood combustion as the major PAHs sources. The cancer risk model (CR-Model 1) and the Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk model (ILCR-Model 2) were used to evaluate the cancer risk assessment via ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact pathways. Both models suggested that brick kiln workers (including adults and children) were exposed to high-potential carcinogenic risk via both ingestion and dermal contact pathways during the brick making process. This study also emphasizes the need for pollution control in the brick kiln industry of Pakistan. PMID:24973936

  12. What are the chances? Evaluating risk and benefit information in consumer health materials

    PubMed Central

    Burkell, Jacquelyn

    2004-01-01

    Much consumer health information addresses issues of disease risk or treatment risks and benefits, addressing questions such as “How effective is this treatment?” or “What is the likelihood that this test will give a false positive result?” Insofar as it addresses outcome likelihood, this information is essentially quantitative in nature, which is of critical importance, because quantitative information tends to be difficult to understand and therefore inaccessible to consumers. Information professionals typically examine reading level to determine the accessibility of consumer health information, but this measure does not adequately reflect the difficulty of quantitative information, including materials addressing issues of risk and benefit. As a result, different methods must be used to evaluate this type of consumer health material. There are no standard guidelines or assessment tools for this task, but research in cognitive psychology provides insight into the best ways to present risk and benefit information to promote understanding and minimize interpretation bias. This paper offers an interdisciplinary bridge that brings these results to the attention of information professionals, who can then use them to evaluate consumer health materials addressing risks and benefits. PMID:15098049

  13. Determining Risk - How to Evaluate the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Copping, A. E.; Blake, K.; Zdanski, L.

    2011-12-01

    As marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development projects progress towards early deployments in the U.S., the process of determining the risks to aquatic animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes from these engineered systems continues to be a significant barrier to efficient siting and permitting. Understanding the risk of MHK installations requires that the two elements of risk - consequence and probability - be evaluated. However, standard risk assessment methodologies are not easily applied to MHK interactions with marine and riverine environment as there are few data that describe the interaction of stressors (MHK devices, anchors, foundations, mooring lines and power cables) and receptors (aquatic animals, habitats and ecosystem processes). The number of possible combinations and permutations of stressors and receptors in MHK systems is large: there are many different technologies designed to harvest energy from the tides, waves and flowing rivers; each device is planned for a specific waterbody that supports an endemic ecosystem of animals and habitats, tied together by specific physical and chemical processes. With few appropriate analogue industries in the oceans and rivers, little information on the effects of these technologies on the living world is available. Similarly, without robust data sets of interactions, mathematical probability models are difficult to apply. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory scientists are working with MHK developers, researchers, engineers, and regulators to rank the consequences of planned MHK projects on living systems, and exploring alternative methodologies to estimate probabilities of these encounters. This paper will present the results of ERES, the Environmental Risk Evaluation System, which has been used to rank consequences for major animal groups and habitats for five MHK projects that are in advanced stages of development and/or early commercial deployment. Probability analyses have been performed for high

  14. Developing and evaluating an automated appendicitis risk stratification algorithm for pediatric patients in the emergency department

    PubMed Central

    Deleger, Louise; Brodzinski, Holly; Zhai, Haijun; Li, Qi; Lingren, Todd; Kirkendall, Eric S; Alessandrini, Evaline; Solti, Imre

    2013-01-01

    Objective To evaluate a proposed natural language processing (NLP) and machine-learning based automated method to risk stratify abdominal pain patients by analyzing the content of the electronic health record (EHR). Methods We analyzed the EHRs of a random sample of 2100 pediatric emergency department (ED) patients with abdominal pain, including all with a final diagnosis of appendicitis. We developed an automated system to extract relevant elements from ED physician notes and lab values and to automatically assign a risk category for acute appendicitis (high, equivocal, or low), based on the Pediatric Appendicitis Score. We evaluated the performance of the system against a manually created gold standard (chart reviews by ED physicians) for recall, specificity, and precision. Results The system achieved an average F-measure of 0.867 (0.869 recall and 0.863 precision) for risk classification, which was comparable to physician experts. Recall/precision were 0.897/0.952 in the low-risk category, 0.855/0.886 in the high-risk category, and 0.854/0.766 in the equivocal-risk category. The information that the system required as input to achieve high F-measure was available within the first 4 h of the ED visit. Conclusions Automated appendicitis risk categorization based on EHR content, including information from clinical notes, shows comparable performance to physician chart reviewers as measured by their inter-annotator agreement and represents a promising new approach for computerized decision support to promote application of evidence-based medicine at the point of care. PMID:24130231

  15. Evaluation of a worksite wellness program designed to reduce cardiovascular risks.

    PubMed

    Roblin, Douglas W; Robinson, Brandi E; Benjamin, Stacey A

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated a multifactorial worksite wellness program designed to improve lifestyle and reduce cardiovascular risks at a small professional services company. Program participation (N = 60 employees) consisted of an enrollment session, a 6-month period of wellness program activities, and a disenrollment session. Lifestyle and biometric measures were obtained at enrollment and disenrollment. Over 6-months, percentage of dietary fat intake decreased (P < .01); daily fruit and vegetable servings and fiber intake increased (P = .02); systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased (P = .04 and 0.01, respectively), and high-density lipoprotein increased (P < .01). This worksite wellness program achieved meaningful improvements in dietary intake and reduction in cardiovascular risks. PMID:24402067

  16. Evaluation of the pressure ulcers risk scales with critically ill patients: a prospective cohort study 1

    PubMed Central

    Borghardt, Andressa Tomazini; do Prado, Thiago Nascimento; de Araújo, Thiago Moura; Rogenski, Noemi Marisa Brunet; Bringuente, Maria Edla de Oliveira

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: to evaluate the accuracy of the Braden and Waterlow risk assessment scales in critically ill inpatients. METHOD: this prospective cohort study, with 55 patients in intensive care units, was performed through evaluation of sociodemographic and clinical variables, through the application of the scales (Braden and Waterlow) upon admission and every 48 hours; and through the evaluation and classification of the ulcers into categories. RESULTS: the pressure ulcer incidence was 30.9%, with the Braden and Waterlow scales presenting high sensitivity (41% and 71%) and low specificity (21% and 47%) respectively in the three evaluations. The cut off scores found in the first, second and third evaluations were 12, 12 and 11 in the Braden scale, and 16, 15 and 14 in the Waterlow scale. CONCLUSION: the Braden scale was shown to be a good screening instrument, and the Waterlow scale proved to have better predictive power. PMID:25806628

  17. Evaluating karst geotechnical risk in the urbanized area of Sete Lagoas, Minas Gerais, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galvão, Paulo; Halihan, Todd; Hirata, Ricardo

    2015-11-01

    An increase in groundwater consumption in the municipality of Sete Lagoas (Minas Gerais, Brazil) has induced subsidence and collapse in the last three decades. The area is associated with natural karst conditions. The primary objective of this research was to evaluate and identify the potential subsidence or collapse risk zones. Aerial photographs, lithologic well profiles, optical well logs, and geologic mapping were utilized to categorize risk factors influencing karst subsidence and collapse, which were then applied to an index system. The study showed that the majority of the urbanized area overlies mantled limestone from the Sete Lagoas Formation covered with unconsolidated sediments, contained within a graben, resulting in barrier boundaries for groundwater flow. This structure, together with natural karst processes, explains the location of solutionally enlarged bedding-plane conduits and high hydraulic conductivity in the limestone. Five risks zones in the municipality were identified (negligible, low, moderate, considerable, and high risks) related to geologic and hydrologic risk factors. The urbanized area is located largely in the high risk zone where the majority of the collapse features are located. Additional intensive groundwater extraction in that area will likely generate additional events.

  18. An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

    2015-11-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

  19. A controlled evaluation of the risk of bacterial endocarditis in persons with mitral-valve prolapse.

    PubMed

    Clemens, J D; Horwitz, R I; Jaffe, C C; Feinstein, A R; Stanton, B F

    1982-09-23

    The absence of controlled evidence and the high prevalence of mitral-valve prolapse have created substantial uncertainty about whether this condition is an important risk factor for bacterial endocarditis. We evaluated this risk in a case-control study of hospital inpatients who had undergone echocardiography and who lacked any known cardiovascular risk factors for endocarditis, apart from mitral-valve prolapse and isolated mitral-regurgitant murmurs. Thirteen (25 per cent) of 51 patients with endocarditis had mitral-valve prolapse, as compared with 10 (seven per cent) of the 153 matched controls without endocarditis. For the 51 matched case-control sets, the odds ratio (8.2; 95 per cent confidence interval, 2.4 to 28.4) indicated a substantially higher risk of endocarditis for people with mitral-valve prolapse than for those without it. This association remained statistically significant when parenteral drug abuse and routine antibiotic prophylaxis preceding dental work and other forms of instrumentation were taken into account. Furthermore, the risk may be higher than is indicated by this study, since 46 per cent of the controls underwent echocardiography for clinically suspected mitral-valve prolapse, suggesting an overrepresentation of mitral prolapse in the control group. The results support the contention that mitral-valve prolapse is a significant risk factor for bacterial endocarditis. PMID:7110242

  20. Evaluation of the risk of venous thromboembolism after quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination among US females.

    PubMed

    Yih, W Katherine; Greene, Sharon K; Zichittella, Lauren; Kulldorff, Martin; Baker, Meghan A; de Jong, Jill L O; Gil-Prieto, Ruth; Griffin, Marie R; Jin, Robert; Lin, Nancy D; McMahill-Walraven, Cheryl N; Reidy, Megan; Selvam, Nandini; Selvan, Mano S; Nguyen, Michael D

    2016-01-01

    After the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensed quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV4) in 2006, reports suggesting a possible association with venous thromboembolism (VTE) emerged from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Our objective was to determine whether HPV4 increased VTE risk. The subjects were 9-26-year-old female members of five data partners in the FDA's Mini-Sentinel pilot project receiving HPV4 during 2006-2013. The outcome was radiologically confirmed first-ever VTE among potential cases identified by diagnosis codes in administrative data during Days 1-77 after HPV4 vaccination. With a self-controlled risk interval design, we compared counts of first-ever VTE in risk intervals (Days 1-28 and Days 1-7 post-vaccination) and control intervals (Days 36-56 for Dose 1 and Days 36-63 for Doses 2 and 3). Combined hormonal contraceptive use was treated as a potential confounder. The main analyses were: (1) unadjusted for time-varying VTE risk from contraceptive use, (2) unadjusted but restricted to cases without such time-varying risk, and (3) adjusted by incorporating the modeled risk of VTE by week of contraceptive use in the analysis. Of 279 potential VTE cases identified following 1,423,399 HPV4 doses administered, 225 had obtainable charts, and 53 were confirmed first-ever VTE. All 30 with onsets in risk or control intervals had known risk factors for VTE. VTE risk was not elevated in the first 7 or 28 days following any dose of HPV in any analysis (e.g. relative risk estimate (95% CI) from both unrestricted analyses, for all-doses, 28-day risk interval: 0.7 (0.3-1.4)). Temporal scan statistics found no clustering of VTE onsets after any dose. Thus, we found no evidence of an increased risk of VTE associated with HPV4 among 9-26-year-old females. A particular strength of this evaluation was its control for both time-invariant and contraceptive-related time-varying potential confounding. PMID:26549364

  1. Evaluation of the risk of noise-induced hearing loss among unscreened male industrial workers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prince, Mary M.; Gilbert, Stephen J.; Smith, Randall J.; Stayner, Leslie T.

    2003-02-01

    Variability in background risk and distribution of various risk factors for hearing loss may explain some of the diversity in excess risk of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). This paper examines the impact of various risk factors on excess risk estimates of NIHL using data from the 1968-1972 NIOSH Occupational Noise and Hearing Survey (ONHS). Previous analyses of a subset of these data focused on 1172 highly ``screened'' workers. In the current analysis, an additional 894 white males (609 noise-exposed and 285 controls), who were excluded for various reasons (i.e., nonoccupational noise exposure, otologic or medical conditions affecting hearing, prior occupational noise exposure) have been added (n=2066) to assess excess risk of noise-induced material impairment in an unscreened population. Data are analyzed by age, duration of exposure, and sound level (8-h TWA) for four different definitions of noise-induced hearing impairment, defined as the binaural pure-tone average (PTA) hearing threshold level greater than 25 dB for the following frequencies: (a) 1-4 kHz (PTA1234), (b) 1-3 kHz (PTA123), (c) 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz (PTA512), and (d) 3, 4, and 6 kHz (PTA346). Results indicate that populations with higher background risks of hearing loss may show lower excess risks attributable to noise relative to highly screened populations. Estimates of lifetime excess risk of hearing impairment were found to be significantly different between screened and unscreened population for noise levels greater than 90 dBA. Predicted age-related risk of material hearing impairment in the ONHS unscreened population was similar to that predicted from Annex B and C of ANSI S3.44 for ages less than 60 years. Results underscore the importance of understanding differential risk patterns for hearing loss and the use of appropriate reference (control) populations when evaluating risk of noise-induced hearing impairment among contemporary industrial populations.

  2. Evaluating life-safety risk of fieldwork at New Zealand's active volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deligne, Natalia; Jolly, Gill; Taig, Tony; Webb, Terry

    2014-05-01

    Volcano observatories monitor active or potentially active volcanoes. Although the number and scope of remote monitoring instruments and methods continues to grow, in-person field data collection is still required for comprehensive monitoring. Fieldwork anywhere, and especially in mountainous areas, contains an element of risk. However, on volcanoes with signs of unrest, there is an additional risk of volcanic activity escalating while on site, with potentially lethal consequences. As an employer, a volcano observatory is morally and sometimes legally obligated to take reasonable measures to ensure staff safety and to minimise occupational risk. Here we present how GNS Science evaluates life-safety risk for volcanologists engaged in fieldwork on New Zealand volcanoes with signs of volcanic unrest. Our method includes several key elements: (1) an expert elicitation for how likely an eruption is within a given time frame, (2) quantification of, based on historical data when possible, given a small, moderate, or large eruption, the likelihood of exposure to near-vent processes, ballistics, or surge at various distances from the vent, and (3) estimate of fatality rate given exposure to these volcanic hazards. The final product quantifies hourly fatality risk at various distances from a volcanic vent; various thresholds of risk (for example, zones with more than 10-5 hourly fatality risk) trigger different levels of required approval to undertake work. Although an element of risk will always be present when conducting fieldwork on potentially active volcanoes, this is a first step towards providing objective guidance for go/no go decisions for volcanic monitoring.

  3. [Principles and methods of evaluation of radiation risk and pilots' health in accidents of nuclear power objects].

    PubMed

    Ushakov, I B; Davydov, B I; Soldatov, S K; Zuev, V G

    1999-01-01

    The article deals with methodic approaches to health state evaluation of pilots who participated in liquidation of events following accidents at nuclear power objects. The main approaches are indeterminancy principle for late radiation effects, economic approach to evaluation of radiation risk, principle of risks comparison, consideration of summarized effect of environmental factors, etc. Some authors' viewpoints are presented. PMID:10097562

  4. An Evaluation of Multiple Behavioral Risk Factors for Cancer in a Working Class, Multi-Ethnic Population

    PubMed Central

    Goodman, Melody S.; Li, Yi; Bennett, Gary G.; Stoddard, Anne M.; Emmons, Karen M.

    2012-01-01

    Behavioral risk factors for cancer tend to cluster within individuals, which can compound risk beyond that associated with the individual risk factors alone. There has been increasing attention paid to the prevalence of multiple risk factors (MRF) for cancer, and to the importance of designing interventions that help individuals reduce their risks across multiple behaviors simultaneously. The purpose of this paper is to develop methodology to identify an optimal linear combination of multiple risk factors (score function) which would facilitate evaluation of cancer interventions. PMID:23227033

  5. Computer simulation of microgravity long-term effects and risk evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez-Poch, Antoni

    The objective of this work is to analyse and simulate possible long-term effects of microgravity on the human pulmonary function. It is also studied the efficacy of long-term regular exercise on relevant cardiovascular parameters when the human body is also exposed to microgravity. Little is known today about what long-term effects microgravity may cause on pulmonary function. It does not exist a complete explanation of the possible risks involved, although some experiments are under way on the ISS in order to evaluate them. Computer simulations are an important tool which may be used to predict and analyse these possible effects, and compare them with in-flight experiments. We based our study on a previous computer model (NELME: Numerical Evaluation of Long-term Microgravity Effects) which was developed in our laboratory and validated with the available data, focusing on the cardiovascular parameters affected by changes in gravity exposure. In this previous work we simulated part of the cardiovascular systems and we applied it to evaluate risks of blood-forming organs malfunction. NELME is based on an electrical-like control system model of the physiological changes, that may occur when gravity changes are applied. The computer implementation has a modular architecture. Hence, different output parameters, potential effects, organs and countermeasures can be easily implemented and evaluated. In this work we added a module to the system to analyse the pulmonary function with a gravity input parameter, as well as exposure time. We then conducted a battery of simulations when different values of g are applied for long-term exposures. We found no significant evidence of changes and no risks were foreseen. We also carried out an EVA simulation as a perturbation in the system (intense exercise, changes in breathed air) and studied the acute response. This is of great importance as current mission requirements do not allow data collection immediately following real EVAs

  6. Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.

    Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.

  7. Developing and evaluating polygenic risk prediction models for stratified disease prevention.

    PubMed

    Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Shi, Jianxin; García-Closas, Montserrat

    2016-07-01

    Knowledge of genetics and its implications for human health is rapidly evolving in accordance with recent events, such as discoveries of large numbers of disease susceptibility loci from genome-wide association studies, the US Supreme Court ruling of the non-patentability of human genes, and the development of a regulatory framework for commercial genetic tests. In anticipation of the increasing relevance of genetic testing for the assessment of disease risks, this Review provides a summary of the methodologies used for building, evaluating and applying risk prediction models that include information from genetic testing and environmental risk factors. Potential applications of models for primary and secondary disease prevention are illustrated through several case studies, and future challenges and opportunities are discussed. PMID:27140283

  8. Atomic force microscopy as a tool to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases in patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guedes, Ana Filipa; Carvalho, Filomena A.; Malho, Inês; Lousada, Nuno; Sargento, Luís; Santos, Nuno C.

    2016-08-01

    The availability of biomarkers to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases is limited. High fibrinogen levels have been identified as a relevant cardiovascular risk factor, but the biological mechanisms remain unclear. Increased aggregation of erythrocytes (red blood cells) has been linked to high plasma fibrinogen concentration. Here, we show, using atomic force microscopy, that the interaction between fibrinogen and erythrocytes is modified in chronic heart failure patients. Ischaemic patients showed increased fibrinogen–erythrocyte binding forces compared with non-ischaemic patients. Cell stiffness in both patient groups was also altered. A 12-month follow-up shows that patients with higher fibrinogen–erythrocyte binding forces initially were subsequently hospitalized more frequently. Our results show that atomic force microscopy can be a promising tool to identify patients with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases.

  9. Methods development to evaluate the risk of upgrading to DCS: The human factor

    SciTech Connect

    Ostrom, L.T.; Wilhelmsen, C.A.

    1995-04-01

    The NRC recognizes that a more complete technical basis for understanding and regulating advanced digital technologies in commercial nuclear power plants is needed. A concern is that the introduction of digital safety systems may have an impact on risk. There is currently no standard methodology for measuring digital system reliability. A tool currently used to evaluate NPP risk in analog systems is the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The use of this tool to evaluate the digital system risk was considered to be a potential methodology for determining the risk. To test this hypothesis, it was decided to perform a limited PRA on a single dominant accident sequence. However, a review of existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods showed that they were inadequate to analyze systems utilizing digital technology. A four step process was used to adapt existing HRA methodologies to digital environments and to develop new techniques. The HRA methods were then used to analyze an NPP that had undergone a backfit to digital technology in order to determine, as a first step, whether the methods were effective. The very small-break loss of coolant accident sequence was analyzed to determine whether the upgrade to the Eagle-21 process protection system had an effect on risk. The analysis of the very small-break LOCA documented in the Sequoyah PRA was used as the basis of the analysis. The analysis of the results of the HRA showed that the mean human error probabilities for the Eagle-21 PPS were slightly less than those for the analog system it replaced. One important observation from the analysis is that the operators have increased confidence steming from the better level of control provided by the digital system. The analysis of the PRA results, which included the human error component and the Eagle-21 PPS, disclosed that the reactor protection system had a higher failure rate than the analog system, although the difference was not statistically significant.

  10. Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data

    PubMed Central

    Dingus, Thomas A.; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F.; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk. PMID:26903657

  11. [Evaluation of the risk of anesthetic gases to exposed subjects with different tasks in operating rooms].

    PubMed

    Bolzoni, G; Somenzi, V; Cirla, A M

    1992-01-01

    A research was carried out on risk evaluation of workers with different tasks in operating theatre. The airborne concentrations were determined by an IR analyzer with two distinct sampling lines: the first was placed in surgical zone and the second one in anesthesiological zone. The anesthetists resulted more at risk than surgical team. Nevertheless when the evaluation was based on N2O urinary concentration and data were stratified according to task a prevalent inhalation absorption resulted for non medical staff (instrumentist and professional nurse). Our data concerning N2O ranged between 95-764 ppm indoor and between 3-92 mcg/l in the urines of exposed subjects. PMID:1345720

  12. Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

    PubMed

    Dingus, Thomas A; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

    2016-03-01

    The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk. PMID:26903657

  13. Development and evaluation of a psychometric instrument designed to assess HIV risk behaviors of prison inmates.

    PubMed

    Balogun, Joseph A; Abiona, Titilayo C; Lukobo-Durrell, Mainza; Adefuye, Adedeji S; Sloan, Patricia E

    2010-01-01

    Clinicians and researchers interested in HIV interventions for prisoners lack an appropriate psychometric instrument to assess HIV risk behaviors. This study evaluated the readability and internal consistency of a questionnaire designed to assess such behaviors. The questionnaire was administered to 277 inmates. The Flesch Reading Ease score was 78.3 with a Flesch-Kincaid grade level of 3.7, suggesting limited comprehension difficulties. Internal consistency was evaluated by determining Cronbach's alpha (Calpha) for total items and for each subscale. Following factor analyses, 25 items converged into five subscales and combined they account for 72% of the variance. The overall Calpha was .86 and the subscales Calpha ranged from .82 to .98. Findings reveal that the questionnaire is internally consistent and suitable for use with prisoners with low literacy skills. The use of this instrument for intervention studies in prisons has the potential to reduce inmates' HIV risk behaviors. PMID:19861320

  14. Relative potency as a means of evaluating ELF (Extremely Low Frequency) health risks

    SciTech Connect

    Easterly, C.E.; Glass, L.R.

    1990-09-01

    In the 1970's, a variety of developments took place to heightened public and scientific interest in electromagnetic fields. During this time, biological studies of nonionizing electromagnetic fields were taking place, but no clear evidence of risks to public health was identified. Then came the surprising epidemiological finding suggesting that 60 Hz magnetic fields may be related to some childhood leukemias. Our particular interest at ORNL was how to interpret the available data with respect to human exposures to the nearly ubiquitous fields. A review of the available data showed that consistent biological effects were difficult to identify. Classical toxicological tests used in chemical risk assessment had not been performed with Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) fields but rather a wide range of mechanistic studies had been pursued. To evaluate the level of anticipated hazard or risk there was neither a mechanistic understanding nor a consistent phenomenological outcome. A risk evaluation normally requires one or the other of these two types of information. Two quite different approaches were pursued: meta-analysis and relative potency. The first of these is a method to combine data from similar experiments to enhance the relative statistical power of a collection of small sample size studies, and will not be discussed further. The second, relative potency, will be the focus of this paper. 20 refs., 2 figs.

  15. Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernaschi, M.; Torosantucci, L.; Uboldi, A.

    2007-03-01

    We describe a simple but effective method for the estimation of the market price of risk. The basic idea is to compare the results obtained by following two different approaches in the application of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. In the first case, we apply the non-linear least squares method to cross sectional data (i.e., all rates of a single day). In the second case, we consider the short rate obtained by means of the first procedure as a proxy of the real market short rate. Starting from this new proxy, we evaluate the parameters of the CIR model by means of martingale estimation techniques. The estimate of the market price of risk is provided by comparing results obtained with these two techniques, since this approach makes possible to isolate the market price of risk and evaluate, under the Local Expectations Hypothesis, the risk premium given by the market for different maturities. As a test case, we apply the method to data of the European Fixed Income Market.

  16. Evaluation of a sexual health approach to reducing HIV/STD risk in the transgender community.

    PubMed

    Bockting, W O; Robinson, B E; Forberg, J; Scheltema, K

    2005-04-01

    Despite reports of high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among the transgender community, very little prevention education has targeted this population. To fill this gap, we developed and evaluated a transgender-specific intervention, All Gender Health, which incorporates prevention strategies into comprehensive sexuality education. Transgender participants (N=181) attended the two-day seminar in community-based venues. The curriculum was delivered via lectures, panel discussions, videos, music, exercises and small group discussions. Attitudes toward condom use, safer sex self-efficacy and sexual risk behaviour were evaluated before participation in the intervention (pre-test), immediately after participation (post-test) and at three-month follow-up. Compared to pre-test values, significant improvements were seen in attitudes toward condom use and in safer sex self-efficacy at post-test, and in attitudes toward condom use, increased monogamy and decreased sexual risk behaviour at three-month follow-up. Pre-test data identified unprotected anal, vaginal and oral sex as the most commonly reported risk behaviours. Many respondents also indicated problems with social discrimination, depression, suicidal ideation and sexual functioning. Future interventions should address these risk co-factors. Alternative interventions need to be developed to target those who, as a result of social marginalization, are less likely to be reached with an intensive seminar-based intervention. PMID:15832877

  17. [How to evaluate psychological risks: an ethics of aesthetic demand in orthodontics].

    PubMed

    Benkimoun, Franck

    2015-12-01

    Evaluating risks is part of the day-to-day practice of all orthodontists. Most of the time we forget that healing a patient also requires an evaluation of what is called the psychological risk. Indeed, focusing on harmonisation matters, we tend to omit that patient's requests, especially aesthetic requests, may conceal psychological problems. Such a risk is even higher when it comes to orthodontic-surgical protocols, as the physical changes are more radical. We will discuss the specificities of aesthetical demand, its links with the social discourse and the way self-esteem and reflection in the mirror are closely intermingled. Should we forget to take into account the psychological dimension of any patient, this could be a breach of professional ethics. We will furthermore consider the means we have to recognize patients with a high psychological risk. It is not in our hands to help these patients psychologically. It is in the hands of a mental health specialist, whose adress and phone number we should know in order to refer our patients to him/her. PMID:26655413

  18. Effects and Risk Evaluation of Oil Spillage in the Sea Areas of Changxing Island

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hanxi; Xu, Jianling; Zhao, Wenkui; Zhang, Jiquan

    2014-01-01

    This paper evaluated the oil spillage risk in the waters near the island of Changxing in Dalian (China) based on the established risk assessment index. Four wind regimes (windless, northerly wind, westerly wind and southerly wind) were selected as weather conditions for the dynamic prediction of oil drift. If an oil spill occurs near the Koumen (a place near the island of Changxing), the forecast and evaluation are conducted based on a three-dimensional mathematical model of oil spillage, and the results obtained show the scope of the affected area when winds from various directions are applied. The oil spillage would, under various conditions, flow into the northern and western sea area of Changxing Island Bay, namely the Dalian harbor seal National Nature Reserve, and create adverse effects on the marine ecological environment. The rationality of combining the established oil spillage risk comprehensive index system with model prediction is further confirmed. Finally, preventive measures and quick fixes are presented in the case of accidental oil spillages. The most effective method to reduce environment risk is to adopt reasonable preventive measures and quick fixes. PMID:25153473

  19. Evaluation and simplification of the occupational slip, trip and fall risk-assessment test

    PubMed Central

    NAKAMURA, Takehiro; OYAMA, Ichiro; FUJINO, Yoshihisa; KUBO, Tatsuhiko; KADOWAKI, Koji; KUNIMOTO, Masamizu; ODOI, Haruka; TABATA, Hidetoshi; MATSUDA, Shinya

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the efficacy of the occupational slip, trip and fall (STF) risk assessment test developed by the Japan Industrial Safety and Health Association (JISHA). We further intended to simplify the test to improve efficiency. Methods: A previous cohort study was performed using 540 employees aged ≥50 years who took the JISHA’s STF risk assessment test. We conducted multivariate analysis using these previous results as baseline values and answers to questionnaire items or score on physical fitness tests as variables. The screening efficiency of each model was evaluated based on the obtained receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: The area under the ROC obtained in multivariate analysis was 0.79 when using all items. Six of the 25 questionnaire items were selected for stepwise analysis, giving an area under the ROC curve of 0.77. Conclusion: Based on the results of follow-up performed one year after the initial examination, we successfully determined the usefulness of the STF risk assessment test. Administering a questionnaire alone is sufficient for screening subjects at risk of STF during the subsequent one-year period. PMID:27021057

  20. Risk.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Hudgens, Michael G; Brookhart, M Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-02-15

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  1. The Risk-Taking and Self-Harm Inventory for Adolescents: Development and Psychometric Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vrouva, Ioanna; Fonagy, Peter; Fearon, Pasco R. M.; Roussow, Trudie

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we report on the development and psychometric evaluation of the Risk-Taking (RT) and Self-Harm (SH) Inventory for Adolescents (RTSHIA), a self-report measure designed to assess adolescent RT and SH in community and clinical settings. 651 young people from secondary schools in England ranging in age from 11.6 years to 18.7 years and…

  2. Evaluation of dose homogenization and radiation carcinogenesis risk in total body irradiation for bone marrow transplantation.

    PubMed

    Oysul, K; Dirican, B; Beyzadeoglu, M; Sürenkok, S; Arpaci, F; Pak, Y

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to report on the dose homogeneity in total body irradiated patients undergoing Bone Marrow Transplantation (BMT), and carcinogenic risk in surviving patients. Between 1987 and 2001, 105 patients received hyperfractionated (6 fractions in 3 days) 12 Gy Total Body Irradiation (TBI) in our institution with lateral opposed fields. All the patients had measurements with thermoluminiscence dosimetry (TLD100) placed on seven bilateral body sites in vivo, controlled by the randophantom measurements to verify reasonable dose homogeneity achievement. The comorbid effects in the whole TBI conditioning group with at least three months post BMT follow-up were noted and surviving patients who had a minimum 5-year and maximum 14-year follow-up (median 7.8 years) have been evaluated for carcinogenic radiation risk on the basis of tissue weighting factors as defined by ICRP 60. Reasonable dose homogeneity by lateral opposed beam TBI has been obtained in all 105 patients in whom lateral TLD100 measurement means were within +5% of the planned doses. Calculated carcinogenesis risk factor was 11.34% for males and 12.40% for females, and no second-cancer has been detected whilst radiation-induced 5 cataracts and 10 interstitial pneumonia comorbidities were noted. Dose homogenization can be well achieved for hyperfractionated lateral-beam TBI with acceptable comorbidities and estimated second-cancer risk is significant but relatively low compared to the risk from the clinical indications for TBI. PMID:14628091

  3. Evaluating re-identification risks with respect to the HIPAA privacy rule

    PubMed Central

    Benitez, Kathleen

    2010-01-01

    Objective Many healthcare organizations follow data protection policies that specify which patient identifiers must be suppressed to share “de-identified” records. Such policies, however, are often applied without knowledge of the risk of “re-identification”. The goals of this work are: (1) to estimate re-identification risk for data sharing policies of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) Privacy Rule; and (2) to evaluate the risk of a specific re-identification attack using voter registration lists. Measurements We define several risk metrics: (1) expected number of re-identifications; (2) estimated proportion of a population in a group of size g or less, and (3) monetary cost per re-identification. For each US state, we estimate the risk posed to hypothetical datasets, protected by the HIPAA Safe Harbor and Limited Dataset policies by an attacker with full knowledge of patient identifiers and with limited knowledge in the form of voter registries. Results The percentage of a state's population estimated to be vulnerable to unique re-identification (ie, g=1) when protected via Safe Harbor and Limited Datasets ranges from 0.01% to 0.25% and 10% to 60%, respectively. In the voter attack, this number drops for many states, and for some states is 0%, due to the variable availability of voter registries in the real world. We also find that re-identification cost ranges from $0 to $17 000, further confirming risk variability. Conclusions This work illustrates that blanket protection policies, such as Safe Harbor, leave different organizations vulnerable to re-identification at different rates. It provides justification for locally performed re-identification risk estimates prior to sharing data. PMID:20190059

  4. Evaluating the Risk of Re-identification of Patients from Hospital Prescription Records

    PubMed Central

    Emam, Khaled El; Dankar, Fida K; Vaillancourt, Régis; Roffey, Tyson; Lysyk, Mary

    2009-01-01

    Background: Pharmacies often provide prescription records to private research firms, on the assumption that these records are de-identified (i.e., identifying information has been removed). However, concerns have been expressed about the potential that patients can be re-identified from such records. Recently, a large private research firm requested prescription records from the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO), as part of a larger effort to develop a database of hospital prescription records across Canada. Objective: To evaluate the ability to re-identify patients from CHEO’S prescription records and to determine ways to appropriately de-identify the data if the risk was too high. Methods: The risk of re-identification was assessed for 18 months’ worth of prescription data. De-identification algorithms were developed to reduce the risk to an acceptable level while maintaining the quality of the data. Results: The probability of patients being re-identified from the original variables and data set requested by the private research firm was deemed quite high. A new de-identified record layout was developed, which had an acceptable level of re-identification risk. The new approach involved replacing the admission and discharge dates with the quarter and year of admission and the length of stay in days, reporting the patient’s age in weeks, and including only the first character of the patient’s postal code. Additional requirements were included in the data-sharing agreement with the private research firm (e.g., audit requirements and a protocol for notification of a breach of privacy). Conclusions: Without a formal analysis of the risk of re-identification, assurances of data anonymity may not be accurate. A formal risk analysis at one hospital produced a clinically relevant data set that also protects patient privacy and allows the hospital pharmacy to explicitly manage the risks of breach of patient privacy. PMID:22478909

  5. Novel Clinical Scale for Evaluating Pre-Operative Risk of Cerebral Herniation from Traumatic Epidural Hematoma.

    PubMed

    Lin, Hong; Wang, Wen-Hao; Hu, Lian-Shui; Li, Jun; Luo, Fei; Lin, Jun-Ming; Huang, Wei; Zhang, Ming-Sheng; Zhang, Yuan; Hu, Kang; Zheng, Jian-Xian

    2016-06-01

    Secondary massive cerebral infarction (MCI) is the predominant prognostic factor for cerebral herniation from epidural hematoma (EDH) and determines the need for decompressive craniectomy. In this study, we tested the clinical feasibility and reliability of a novel pre-operative risk scoring system, the EDH-MCI scale, to guide surgical decision making. It is comprised of six risk factors, including hematoma location and volume, duration and extent of cerebral herniation, Glasgow Coma Scale score, and presence of preoperative shock, with a total score ranging from 0 to 18 points. Application of the EDH-MCI scale to guide surgical modalities for initial hematoma evacuation surgery for 65 patients (prospective cohort, 2012.02-2014.01) showed a significant improvement in the accuracy of the selected modality (95.38% vs. 77.95%; p = 0.002) relative to the results for an independent set of 126 patients (retrospective cohort, 2007.01-2012.01) for whom surgical modalities were decided empirically. Results suggested that simple hematoma evacuation craniotomy was sufficient for patients with low risk scores (≤9 points), whereas decompressive craniectomy in combination with duraplasty were necessary only for those with high risk scores (≥13 points). In patients with borderline risk scores (10-12 points), those having unstable vital signs, coexistence of severe secondary brainstem injury, and unresponsive dilated pupils after emergent burr hole hematoma drainage had a significantly increased incidence of post-traumatic MCI and necessity of radical surgical treatments. In conclusion, the novel pre-operative risk EDH-MCI evaluation scale has a satisfactory predictive and discriminative performance for patients who are at risk for the development of secondary MCI and therefore require decompressive craniectomy. PMID:25393339

  6. Evaluation of generic types of drilling fluid using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process.

    PubMed

    Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir; Veitch, Brian; Bose, Neil

    2003-12-01

    The composition of drilling muds is based on a mixture of clays and additives in a base fluid. There are three generic categories of base fluid--water, oil, and synthetic. Water-based fluids (WBFs) are relatively environmentally benign, but drilling performance is better with oil-based fluids (OBFs). The oil and gas industry developed synthetic-based fluids (SBFs), such as vegetable esters, olefins, ethers, and others, which provide drilling performance comparable to OBFs, but with lower environmental and occupational health effects. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology to guide decision-making in the selection and evaluation of three generic types of drilling fluids using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this paper a comparison of drilling fluids is made considering various activities involved in the life cycle of drilling fluids. This paper evaluates OBFs, WBFs, and SBFs based on four major impacts--operations, resources, economics, and liabilities. Four major activities--drilling, discharging offshore, loading and transporting, and disposing onshore--cause the operational impacts. Each activity involves risks related to occupational injuries (safety), general public health, environmental impact, and energy use. A multicriteria analysis strategy was used for the selection and evaluation of drilling fluids using a risk-based AHP. A four-level hierarchical structure is developed to determine the final relative scores, and the SBFs are found to be the best option. PMID:15160901

  7. Evaluating the efficacy of a mental models approach for improving occupational chemical risk protection.

    PubMed

    Niewöhner, Jörg; Cox, Patrick; Gerrard, Simon; Pidgeon, Nick

    2004-04-01

    Chemical risk protection in the workplace relies partly on informing workers about possible risks using material safety data sheets (MSDS). This article reports on phase 2 of a project (phase 1 reported in Cox et al.), which employed a mental models approach to improve on data sheets as communicative interventions for perchloroethylene in dry cleaning and rosin-based solder flux in the electronics industry within small businesses in the United Kingdom (small enterprises (SEs) < 25 employees in the workplace). It focuses on the efficacy of a multimethod evaluation strategy to assess (1) the capacity of a mental models approach to yield contextually relevant data for intervention design and (2) the effectiveness of the strategy itself in validating the mental models data. The evaluation was conducted using postal questionnaires and semi-structured verbal protocols to provide responses to the alternative intervention content and to prioritize risk messages. User discussion groups were then employed, particularly as a means of establishing whether contextual information could be obtained that would differ qualitatively from the kind elicited through individual (semi) structured methods. We conclude that the mental models approach as part of an iterative process including systematic multimethod evaluation is successful in supporting the design of relevant communications to the users of chemicals. The overall viability of communicative interventions in the context of health and safety in small businesses remains in question. Future research might aim to develop a more holistic approach to interventions in complex occupational contexts. PMID:15078306

  8. Evaluating the Impact of Contaminant Dilution and Biodegradation in Uncertainty Quantification of Human Health Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarlenga, Antonio; de Barros, Felipe; Fiori, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    covariance shape, reaction parameters pertaining to aerobic and anaerobic degradation processes respectively as well as the dose response parameters. Even though the final result assumes a relatively simple form, few numerical quadratures are required in order to evaluate the trajectory moments of the solute plume. In order to perform a sensitivity analysis we apply the methodology to a hypothetical case study. The scenario investigated is made by an aquifer which constitutes a water supply for a population where a continuous source of NAPL contaminant feeds a steady plume. The risk analysis is limited to carcinogenic compounds for which the well-known linear relation for human risk is assumed. Analysis performed shows few interesting findings: the risk distribution is strictly dependent on the pore scale dynamics that trigger dilution and mixing; biodegradation may involve a significant reduction of the risk.

  9. STRESSED SEBATES: A TRAIT-BASED EVALUATION OF CLIMATE RISKS TO ROCKFISHES OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC USING THE COASTAL BIOGEOGRAPHIC RISK ANALYSIS TOOL (CBRAT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework is implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the ...

  10. Stressed Sebastes: A Trait-Based Evaluation of Climate Risks to Rockfishes of the Northeastern Pacific Using the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework was implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the...

  11. Evaluation of six risk factors for the development of bacteremia in children with cancer and febrile neutropenia

    PubMed Central

    Asturias, E.J.; Corral, J.E.; Quezada, J.

    2010-01-01

    Febrile neutropenia is a well-known entity in children with cancer, being responsible for the high risk for infection that characterizes this population. For this reason, cancer patients are hospitalized so that they can receive prophylactic care. Risk factors have been used to classify patients at a high risk for developing bacteremia. The present study evaluates whether those risk factors (C-reactive protein, hypotension, leukemia as the cancer type, thrombocytopenia, recent chemotherapy, and acute malnutrition) apply to patients at the Unidad Nacional de Oncología Pediátrica. We evaluated 102 episodes in 88 patients, in whom risk factors and blood cultures were tested. We observed no statistical relationship between the six risk factors and bacteremia. There was also no relationship between bacteremia and the simultaneous presence of two, three, or more risk factors. A significant relationship of C-reactive protein and platelet count with other outcome factors was observed. PMID:20404980

  12. Evaluation of risk factors for degenerative joint disease associated with hip dysplasia in dogs.

    PubMed

    Smith, G K; Popovitch, C A; Gregor, T P; Shofer, F S

    1995-03-01

    Passive coxofemoral joint laxity of dogs, as quantitated by a distraction-stress radiographic method, may have important prognostic value in determining susceptibility to hip dysplasia. Data from 151 dogs, representing 13 breeds, were included in a logistic regression model to evaluate the contribution of factors such as age, breed, weight, sex, distraction index, and Norberg angle to the risk of developing degenerative joint disease (DJD) of the coxofemoral joint. Of the factors studied, the amount of passive hip laxity, as quantitated by the distraction index, was the most significant (P < 0.0001) determinant of the risk to develop DJD of the coxofemoral joint. In the longitudinal and cross-sectional components of the study, distraction index was a significant (P < 0.001) risk factor for DJD, irrespective of age at evaluation (4, 12, or 24 months). The strength of the hip laxity:DJD correlation increased with the age of dog. In contrast, the Norberg angle, a measure of hip laxity on the standard hip-extended radiograph, was not found to be a significant risk factor for DJD, either in the longitudinal or cross-sectional analyses. Breed-specific probability curves of DJD susceptibility indicated that German Shepherd Dogs had a significantly (P < 0.05) greater risk of developing DJD than did the pool of non-German Shepherd Dogs. The information derived from this statistical model will help to scientifically characterize the role of passive hip laxity as a component in the pathogenesis of DJD of the coxofemoral joint. PMID:7744684

  13. Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2014-06-01

    Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural

  14. Visual avoidance in phobia: particularities in neural activity, autonomic responding, and cognitive risk evaluations

    PubMed Central

    Aue, Tatjana; Hoeppli, Marie-Eve; Piguet, Camille; Sterpenich, Virginie; Vuilleumier, Patrik

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the neural mechanisms and the autonomic and cognitive responses associated with visual avoidance behavior in spider phobia. Spider phobic and control participants imagined visiting different forest locations with the possibility of encountering spiders, snakes, or birds (neutral reference category). In each experimental trial, participants saw a picture of a forest location followed by a picture of a spider, snake, or bird, and then rated their personal risk of encountering these animals in this context, as well as their fear. The greater the visual avoidance of spiders that a phobic participant demonstrated (as measured by eye tracking), the higher were her autonomic arousal and neural activity in the amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and precuneus at picture onset. Visual avoidance of spiders in phobics also went hand in hand with subsequently reduced cognitive risk of encounters. Control participants, in contrast, displayed a positive relationship between gaze duration toward spiders, on the one hand, and autonomic responding, as well as OFC, ACC, and precuneus activity, on the other hand. In addition, they showed reduced encounter risk estimates when they looked longer at the animal pictures. Our data are consistent with the idea that one reason for phobics to avoid phobic information may be grounded in heightened activity in the fear circuit, which signals potential threat. Because of the absence of alternative efficient regulation strategies, visual avoidance may then function to down-regulate cognitive risk evaluations for threatening information about the phobic stimuli. Control participants, in contrast, may be characterized by a different coping style, whereby paying visual attention to potentially threatening information may help them to actively down-regulate cognitive evaluations of risk. PMID:23754994

  15. Evaluation of the Johne's disease risk assessment and management plan on dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

    PubMed

    Pieper, Laura; Sorge, Ulrike S; DeVries, Trevor J; Godkin, Ann; Lissemore, Kerry; Kelton, David F

    2015-10-01

    Johne's disease (JD) is a production-limiting gastrointestinal disease in cattle. To minimize the effects of JD, the Ontario dairy industry launched the Ontario Johne's Education and Management Assistance Program in 2010. As part of the program, trained veterinarians conducted a risk assessment and management plan (RAMP), an on-farm questionnaire where high RAMP scores are associated with high risk of JD transmission. Subsequently, veterinarians recommended farm-specific management practices for JD prevention. Milk or serum ELISA results from the milking herd were used to determine the herd ELISA status (HES) and within-herd prevalence. After 3.5 yr of implementation of the program, the aim of this study was to evaluate the associations among RAMP scores, HES, and recommendations. Data from 2,103 herds were available for the analyses. A zero-inflated negative binomial model for the prediction of the number of ELISA-positive animals per farm was built. The model included individual RAMP questions about purchasing animals in the logistic portion, indicating risks for between-herd transmission, and purchasing bulls, birth of calves outside the designated calving area, colostrum and milk feeding management, and adult cow environmental hygiene in the negative binomial portion, indicating risk factors for within-herd transmission. However, farms which fed low-risk milk compared with milk replacer had fewer seropositive animals. The model additionally included the JD herd history in the negative binomial and the logistic portion, indicating that herds with a JD herd history were more likely to have at least 1 positive animal and to have a higher number of positive animals. Generally, a positive association was noted between RAMP scores and the odds of receiving a recommendation for the respective risk area; however, the relationship was not always linear. For general JD risk and calving area risk, seropositive herds had higher odds of receiving recommendations compared

  16. Millstone 3 risk evaluation report. An overall review and evaluation of the Millstone Unit 3 probabilistic safety study

    SciTech Connect

    Kelly, G.; Barrett, R.; Buslik, A.

    1986-06-01

    In 1981, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requested Northeast Utilities to perform a design-specific probabilistic safety study (PSS) for Millstone Nuclear Power Station, Unit No. 3 (Millstone 3). In 1983, Northeast Utilities submitted the Millstone 3 Probabilistic Safety Study for review by the NRC staff. The NRC staff prepared the Millstone 3 Risk Evaluation Report, which discusses the findings regarding the PSS. The PSS estimates that the mean annual core damage frequency due to internal and external events is 5 x 10/sup -5/ and 2 x 10/sup -5/, respectively. The NRC staff's Risk Evaluation Report estimates that the mean annual core damage frequency is about 2 x 10/sup -4/ for internal events and lies between 1 x 10/sup -5/ and 2 x 10/sup -4/ for external events. The NRC staff estimates that station blackout dominates internal and external event core damage frequencies. The staff recommends that Northeast Utilities perform an engineering analysis on upgrading the diesel generator lube oil cooler anchorage system and on adding a manually operated, AC-independent containment spray system. The staff also recommends that Northeast Utilities prepare two emergency procedures (loss of room cooling and relay chatter due to an earthquake) to help reduce uncertainties. (Subsequent to the completion of this document, Northeast Utilities and the NRC staff have continued a dialogue regarding station blackout from events other than earthquakes. Both Northeast Utilities and the staff have performed additional evaluations, which have drawn their results closer together. Final requirements, if any, for the prevention or mitigation of station blackout from events other than earthquakes have not yet been determined.) 26 refs., 16 tabs.

  17. Evaluation of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a Predictor of Adolescent Real-World Risk-Taking Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lejuez, C. W.; Aklin, Will M.; Zvolensky, Michael J.; Pedulla, Christina M.

    2003-01-01

    A sample of 26 adolescents tested the utility of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a behavioral measure of risk-taking propensity. Data indicate that riskyness on the BART was related to self-reported engagement in real-world risk-taking behaviors. These data suggest that the BART may be a useful addition to self-report batteries for the…

  18. Utilizing support vector machine in real-time crash risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2013-03-01

    Real-time crash risk evaluation models will likely play a key role in Active Traffic Management (ATM). Models have been developed to predict crash occurrence in order to proactively improve traffic safety. Previous real-time crash risk evaluation studies mainly employed logistic regression and neural network models which have a linear functional form and over-fitting drawbacks, respectively. Moreover, these studies mostly focused on estimating the models but barely investigated the models' predictive abilities. In this study, support vector machine (SVM), a recently proposed statistical learning model was introduced to evaluate real-time crash risk. The data has been split into a training dataset (used for developing the models) and scoring datasets (meant for assessing the models' predictive power). Classification and regression tree (CART) model has been developed to select the most important explanatory variables and based on the results, three candidates Bayesian logistic regression models have been estimated with accounting for different levels unobserved heterogeneity. Then SVM models with different kernel functions have been developed and compared to the Bayesian logistic regression model. Model comparisons based on areas under the ROC curve (AUC) demonstrated that the SVM model with Radial-basis kernel function outperformed the others. Moreover, several extension analyses have been conducted to evaluate the effect of sample size on SVM models' predictive capability; the importance of variable selection before developing SVM models; and the effect of the explanatory variables in the SVM models. Results indicate that (1) smaller sample size would enhance the SVM model's classification accuracy, (2) variable selection procedure is needed prior to the SVM model estimation, and (3) explanatory variables have identical effects on crash occurrence for the SVM models and logistic regression models. PMID:23287112

  19. Pilot evaluation of an adolescent risk and injury prevention programme incorporating curriculum and school connectedness components.

    PubMed

    Chapman, R L; Buckley, L; Sheehan, M; Shochet, I M

    2013-08-01

    School connectedness is an important protective factor for adolescent risk-taking behaviour. This study examined a pilot version of the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) programme, combining teacher professional development (PD) for increasing school connectedness (connectedness component) with a risk and injury prevention curriculum for early adolescents (curriculum component). A process evaluation was conducted on the connectedness component, involving assessments of programme reach, participant receptiveness and initial use, and a preliminary impact evaluation was conducted on the combined connectedness and curriculum programme. The connectedness component was well received by teacher participants, who saw benefits for both themselves and their students. Classroom observation also showed that teachers who received PD made use of the programme strategies. Grade 8 students who participated in the SPIY programme were less likely to report violent behaviour at 6-month follow-up than were control students, and trends also suggested reduced transport injuries. The results of this research support the use of the combined SPIY connectedness and curriculum components in a large-scale effectiveness trial to assess the impact of the programme on students' connectedness, risk-taking and associated injuries. PMID:23503569

  20. EVALUATING RISK-PREDICTION MODELS USING DATA FROM ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS

    PubMed Central

    WANG, LE; SHAW, PAMELA A.; MATHELIER, HANSIE M.; KIMMEL, STEPHEN E.; FRENCH, BENJAMIN

    2016-01-01

    The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., “false negatives”). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models. PMID:27158296

  1. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

  2. A checklist for evaluating ergonomic risk factors associated with upper extremity cumulative trauma disorders.

    PubMed

    Keyserling, W M; Stetson, D S; Silverstein, B A; Brouwer, M L

    1993-07-01

    A two-page checklist for determining the presence of ergonomic risk factors associated with the development of upper extremity cumulative trauma disorders (e.g., repetitiveness, local mechanical contact stresses, forceful manual exertions, awkward postures, and hand tool usage) was developed and evaluated as part of a joint labour-management ergonomics intervention programme. This checklist was used by plant personnel at four work sites to assess the presence of upper extremity risk factors in 335 manufacturing and warehouse jobs. In addition, results generated by the checklist were compared to the results of ergonomic analyses performed by persons with advanced training (Masters degree) in occupational ergonomics for a subset of 51 jobs. Most of the jobs included in the survey were found to have significant exposures to upper extremity risk factors. Awkward work postures were common, with 90% of the jobs requiring wrist deviations outside the neutral range-of-motion. The jobs were also highly repetitive and frequently required workers to exert high hand forces. Results generated by the checklist were generally in agreement with results generated by the ergonomic analysts; however, the checklist was found to be more sensitive in identifying the presence of risk factors. The checklist was found to be an effective rapid-screening instrument for identifying jobs that expose workers to potentially harmful ergonomic stresses. However, the checklist methodology did not include sufficient documentation of work methods to identify specific job attributes associated with these exposures. PMID:8339720

  3. Cardiac evaluation and risk reduction in patients undergoing major vascular operations.

    PubMed Central

    Potyk, D K

    1994-01-01

    Occult coronary artery disease often accompanies symptomatic peripheral vascular disease and has an important effect on survival. Most perioperative and late fatalities after peripheral vascular operations are due to cardiac causes. Noninvasive cardiac testing can identify patients at increased risk for postoperative cardiac complications, although controversy exists regarding the optimal preoperative evaluation. Risk reduction strategies for patients known to be at high risk are also controversial. Some authors advocate coronary revascularization with coronary artery bypass grafting or percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty before the vascular procedure. Others believe that the combined morbidity and mortality of 2 operations exceed those of a peripheral vascular operation performed with aggressive monitoring and medical therapy. Continuous electrocardiographic monitoring after an operation has identified silent myocardial ischemia as a powerful predictor of cardiac complications. Ongoing research is likely to provide insights into the pathogenesis of postoperative cardiac complications and may lead to specific therapeutic interventions. Few prospective studies have been done in this area, and the threshold for preoperative and postoperative intervention is unknown. I review the literature and present an algorithm to guide cardiac testing and risk reduction in patients undergoing elective vascular surgical procedures. PMID:7941507

  4. The ABC’s of Suicide Risk Assessment: Applying a Tripartite Approach to Individual Evaluations

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Keith M.; Syu, Jia-Jia; Lello, Owen D.; Chew, Y. L. Eileen; Willcox, Christopher H.; Ho, Roger H. M.

    2015-01-01

    There is considerable need for accurate suicide risk assessment for clinical, screening, and research purposes. This study applied the tripartite affect-behavior-cognition theory, the suicidal barometer model, classical test theory, and item response theory (IRT), to develop a brief self-report measure of suicide risk that is theoretically-grounded, reliable and valid. An initial survey (n = 359) employed an iterative process to an item pool, resulting in the six-item Suicidal Affect-Behavior-Cognition Scale (SABCS). Three additional studies tested the SABCS and a highly endorsed comparison measure. Studies included two online surveys (Ns = 1007, and 713), and one prospective clinical survey (n = 72; Time 2, n = 54). Factor analyses demonstrated SABCS construct validity through unidimensionality. Internal reliability was high (α = .86-.93, split-half = .90-.94)). The scale was predictive of future suicidal behaviors and suicidality (r = .68, .73, respectively), showed convergent validity, and the SABCS-4 demonstrated clinically relevant sensitivity to change. IRT analyses revealed the SABCS captured more information than the comparison measure, and better defined participants at low, moderate, and high risk. The SABCS is the first suicide risk measure to demonstrate no differential item functioning by sex, age, or ethnicity. In all comparisons, the SABCS showed incremental improvements over a highly endorsed scale through stronger predictive ability, reliability, and other properties. The SABCS is in the public domain, with this publication, and is suitable for clinical evaluations, public screening, and research. PMID:26030590

  5. Evaluating the RiskMetrics methodology in measuring volatility and Value-at-Risk in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pafka, Szilárd; Kondor, Imre

    2001-10-01

    We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution function, which is an important feature of financial data. Nevertheless, it was commonly found that RiskMetrics performs satisfactorily well, and therefore the technique has become widely used in the financial industry. We find, however, that the success of RiskMetrics is the artifact of the choice of the risk measure. First, the outstanding performance of volatility estimates is basically due to the choice of a very short (one-period ahead) forecasting horizon. Second, the satisfactory performance in obtaining Value-at-Risk by simply multiplying volatility with a constant factor is mainly due to the choice of the particular significance level.

  6. Post-Flight Back Pain Following International Space Station Missions: Evaluation of Spaceflight Risk Factors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, M. S.; Murray, J. D.; Wear, M. L.; Van Baalen, M.

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Back pain during spaceflight has often been attributed to the lengthening of the spinal column due to the absence of gravity during both short and long-duration missions. Upon landing and re-adaptation to gravity, the spinal column reverts back to its original length thereby causing some individuals to experience pain and muscular spasms, while others experience no ill effects. With International Space Station (ISS) missions, cases of back pain and injury are more common post-flight, but little is known about the potential risk factors. Thus, the purpose of this project was to perform an initial evaluation of reported post-flight back pain and injury cases to relevant spaceflight risk factors in United States astronauts that have completed an ISS mission. METHODS All US astronauts who completed an ISS mission between Expeditions (EXP) 1 and 41 (2000-2015) were included in this evaluation. Forty-five astronauts (36 males and 9 females) completed 50 ISS missions during the study time period, as 5 astronauts completed 2 ISS missions. Researchers queried medical records of the 45 astronauts for occurrences of back pain and injury. A case was defined as any reported event of back pain or injury to the cervical, thoracic, lumbar, sacral, or coccyx spine regions. Data sources for the cases included the Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record; Astronaut Strength, Conditioning and Rehabilitation electronic documentation; the Private Medical Conference tool; and the Space Medicine Operations Team records. Post-flight cases were classified as an early case if reported within 45 days of landing (R + 45) or a late case if reported from R + 46 to R + 365 days after landing (R + 1y). Risk factors in the astronaut population for back pain include age, sex, prior military service, and prior history of back pain. Additionally, spaceflight specific risk factors such as type of landing vehicle and onboard exercise countermeasures were included to evaluate their

  7. Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Robert M.; Thurnau, Robert C.

    2011-12-01

    Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie, Wyoming, USA). Using the risk model a cost/ benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM), is used to assist in making improved repair, replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes. A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

  8. Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Guan, Xuefei; Zhang, Jingdan; Zhou, S. Kevin; Rasselkorde, El Mahjoub; Abbasi, Waheed A.

    2014-02-18

    The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.

  9. Shared risk evaluation mitigation strategy for all immediate-release transmucosal fentanyl dosage forms.

    PubMed

    2012-06-01

    The Food and Drug Administration approved a single shared Risk Evaluation Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for transmucosal immediate-release fentanyl dosage forms in December 2011. This report describes the goals, elements, and restricted distribution system of the REMS designed to reduce risk of abuse, misuse, addiction, and overdose with the drugs. Questions and answers about REMS also are presented. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a shared REMS for all immediate-release transmucosal fentanyl dosage forms on December 29, 2011, to become effective in March 2012. That announcement is accessible at: http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm285345.htm. Concurrently the FDA posted a series of questions and answers on this shared REMS at: http://http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/InformationbyDrugClass/ucm284717.htm. Both documents are in the public domain. PMID:22764848

  10. Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Xuefei; Zhang, Jingdan; Zhou, S. Kevin; Rasselkorde, El Mahjoub; Abbasi, Waheed A.

    2014-02-01

    The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.

  11. Diet and behavior in at-risk children: evaluation of an early intervention program.

    PubMed

    Worobey, John; Pisuk, Joan; Decker, Kathleen

    2004-01-01

    This study describes outcomes for children enrolled in the Prevention-Oriented System for Child Health Project, an early intervention program aimed at improving health and developmental status in at-risk families. Through a series of home visits by public health nurses, 60 families received lessons on nutrition- and health-related topics determined by the child and family's needs. On two occasions, some 8 months apart, the children were evaluated using the Developmental Assessment of Young Children, and their energy intake over the previous day was recorded. Analyses of the dietary and behavioral records indicated that the children's scores on the physical subtest improved significantly. A number of nutrition-development associations were found at follow-up, suggesting that the intervention was successful. Implications of the results for at-risk children are discussed. PMID:14987211

  12. Evaluation and improvement of methods to quantify the exploration risk of geothermal projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganz, Britta; Schellschmidt, Rüdiger; Schulz, Rüdiger; Thomas, Rüdiger

    2015-04-01

    The quantification of exploration risks is of major importance for geothermal project planning. The exploration risk is defined as the risk of not successfully achieving a geothermal reservoir with minimum levels of thermal water production and reservoir temperatures (UNEP 2004). A simple method to quantify the probability of success (POS) for geothermal wells is to determine the single risks for temperature and flow rate and calculate the overall probability by multiplying the individual probabilities (SCHULZ et al. 2010). Since 2002, over 50 expert studies to evaluate the exploration risk of geothermal projects in Germany were carried out based on this method. The studies are requested as a basis for insurance contracts covering the risk of not achieving the necessary parameters. The estimated probabilities for temperature and flow rate in the expert reports were now compared with the parameters actually reached in meanwhile realised projects. The results are used for an improvement of the method. The probability of success for a given temperature was calculated using local temperature information in the vicinity of the planned well location. The greater significance of nearby temperature data was considered by inverse distance weighting. In highly productive deep aquifers, which are of major interest for geothermal projects, temperature gradients often strongly decrease due to an intense vertical mixing of the thermal water. Thus, the top of the considered aquifer was used as the reference point of the temperature assessment. As still some positive gradient can be expected within the aquifer, this is a conservative estimation. The evaluation of the reports should therefore especially answer the question, whether this approach has led to a systematic underestimation of the temperature. To calculate the probability of success for hydraulic parameters, the theoretical drawdown at a given flow rate was calculated for existing wells from hydraulic test data. The

  13. Evaluation of the Benefits and Risks of Introducing Ebola Community Care Centers, Sierra Leone

    PubMed Central

    Camacho, Anton; Checchi, Francesco; Waldman, Ron; Grais, Rebecca F.; Cabrol, Jean-Clement; Briand, Sylvie; Baguelin, Marc; Flasche, Stefan; Funk, Sebastian; Edmunds, W. John

    2015-01-01

    In some parts of western Africa, Ebola treatment centers (ETCs) have reached capacity. Unless capacity is rapidly scaled up, the chance to avoid a generalized Ebola epidemic will soon diminish. The World Health Organization and partners are considering additional Ebola patient care options, including community care centers (CCCs), small, lightly staffed units that could be used to isolate patients outside the home and get them into care sooner than otherwise possible. Using a transmission model, we evaluated the benefits and risks of introducing CCCs into Sierra Leone’s Western Area, where most ETCs are at capacity. We found that use of CCCs could lead to a decline in cases, even if virus transmission occurs between CCC patients and the community. However, to prevent CCC amplification of the epidemic, the risk of Ebola virus–negative persons being exposed to virus within CCCs would have to be offset by a reduction in community transmission resulting from CCC use. PMID:25694150

  14. Evaluation of a biological risk management tool on large western United States dairies.

    PubMed

    Moore, D A; Leach, D A; Bickett-Weddle, D; Andersen, K; Castillo, A R; Collar, C A; Higginbotham, G; Peterson, N; Reed, B; Hartman, M L

    2010-09-01

    Critical to changing biosecurity practices on the farm is an individual assessment of those practices contributing to disease transmission. The purpose of this project was to assess, implement, and refine a biological risk management survey for use on large western United States dairy farms. Assessment tools developed by Iowa State University Center for Food Security and Public Health (Ames, IA) were refined using a focus group process and by testing them on 40 dairy herds in California. Each question was evaluated using standard criteria and producer responses. Some survey questions required refinement for clarity and others were considered unnecessary. New questions were added based on a biosecurity literature review, resulting in a new set of questions that can be used by extension educators and food animal veterinarians to help identify disease risk areas and educate dairy producers. PMID:20723684

  15. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. PMID:26910315

  16. Regional risk assessment of the Puyallup River Watershed and the evaluation of low impact development in meeting management goals.

    PubMed

    Hines, Eleanor E; Landis, Wayne G

    2014-04-01

    The Relative Risk Model (RRM) is a tool used to calculate and assess the likelihood of effects to endpoints when multiple stressors occur in complex ecological systems. In this study, a Bayesian network was used to calculate relative risk and estimate uncertainty (BN-RRM) in the Puyallup River Watershed. First, we calculated the risk of prespawn mortality of coho salmon. Second, we evaluated the effect of low impact development (LID) as a means to reduce risk. Prespawner mortality in coho salmon within the Puyallup watershed was the endpoint selected for this study. A conceptual model showing causal pathways between stressors and endpoints was created to show where linkages exist. A relative risk gradient was found throughout the watershed. The lowest risk was found in risk regions with the least urban development, and the greatest risk of prespawner mortality was found in the highly urbanized risk regions with the largest amounts of impervious surface. LID did reduce risk but only when implemented at high intensities within the urban watersheds. The structure of the BN-RRM also provides a framework for water quality- and quantity-related endpoints within this and other watersheds. The framework is also useful for evaluating different strategies for remediation or restoration activities. The adaptability of using BNs for a relative risk assessment provides opportunities for the model to be adapted for other watersheds in the Puget Sound and Salish Sea region. PMID:24288344

  17. Proceedings of Conference XIII, evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Charonnat, Barbara B., (compiler)

    1981-01-01

    The participants in the conference concluded that a great deal of useful research has been performed in the national Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers and that the state-of-knowledge concerning the evaluation of seismic hazards and risk has been advanced substantially. Many of the technical issues raised during the conference are less controversial now because of new information and insights gained during the first three years of the expanded research program conducted under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act. Utilization of research results by many groups of users has also improved during this period and further improvement in utilization appears likely. Additional research is still required to resolve more completely the many complex technical issues summarized above and described in the papers contained in the proceedings. Improved certainty of research results on the evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk is required before full utilization can be made by state and local governments who deal. with people frequently having a different perception of the hazard and its risk to them than that perceived by scientists or engineers. Each of the papers contained in the proceedings contain throughtful recommendations for improving the state-of-knowledge. Two papers, in particular, focussed on this particular theme. The first was presented by Lynn Sykes in the Geologic Keynote Address. He identified geographic areas throughout the world which may be considered as counterparts or analogues of seismic zones in the United States. He concluded that much can be learned about prediction, tectonic settings, earthquake hazards, and earthquake risk for sites in the United States by studying their tectonic analogues in other countries. The second paper was presented by John Blume in the Engineering Keynote Address. He suggested 20 specific research topics that, in his opinion, will significantly advance the state

  18. A tiered assessment framework to evaluate human health risk of contaminated sediment.

    PubMed

    Greenfield, Ben K; Melwani, Aroon R; Bay, Steven M

    2015-07-01

    For sediment contaminated with bioaccumulative pollutants (e.g., PCBs and organochorine pesticides), human consumption of seafood that contain bioaccumulated sediment-derived contaminants is a well-established exposure pathway. Historically, regulation and management of this bioaccumulation pathway has focused on site-specific risk assessment. The state of California (United States) is supporting the development of a consistent and quantitative sediment assessment framework to aid in interpreting a narrative objective to protect human health. The conceptual basis of this framework focuses on 2 key questions: 1) do observed pollutant concentrations in seafood from a given site pose unacceptable health risks to human consumers? and 2) is sediment contamination at a site a significant contributor to seafood contamination? The first question is evaluated by interpreting seafood tissue concentrations at the site, based on health risk calculations. The second question is evaluated by interpreting site-specific sediment chemistry data using a food web bioaccumulation model. The assessment framework includes 3 tiers (screening assessment, site assessment, and refined site assessment), which enables the assessment to match variations in data availability, site complexity, and study objectives. The second and third tiers use a stochastic simulation approach, incorporating information on variability and uncertainty of key parameters, such as seafood contaminant concentration and consumption rate by humans. The framework incorporates site-specific values for sensitive parameters and statewide values for difficult to obtain or less sensitive parameters. The proposed approach advances risk assessment policy by incorporating local data into a consistent region-wide problem formulation, applying best available science in a streamlined fashion. PMID:25641876

  19. Efficiency evaluation of a groundwater monitoring network using a risk-based decision- support process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; Birdsell, K.; Davis, P.; Echohawk, C.

    2006-12-01

    Efficiency evaluation of a groundwater monitoring network using a risk-based decision-support process Velimir V Vesselinov, Kay Birdsell, Paul David, Chris Echohawk A series of contaminant sources have the potential to impact the quality of regional groundwater resources beneath the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Currently, 21 areas have been identified where contaminants could possibly reach the regional aquifer at the water table. Because the temporal variability of the contaminant mass fluxes through the vadose zone is not well defined, source strength uncertainty at the regional aquifer is represented by a series of unit-mass source functions. Uncertainties in the potential contaminant pathways within the aquifer and the breakthrough curves at the potential discharge locations (receptors), which include water-supply wells and springs, are investigated. Risk-based analyses of the performance of the existing groundwater monitoring network are carried out. The network should be capable of detecting the potential contaminant plumes before they reach (1) the receptors and/or (2) the LANL boundaries at unacceptably high concentrations. Individual monitoring boreholes are ranked based on their importance for plume detection. Suggestions regarding optimal sampling frequency for the monitoring boreholes are also made. The study utilizes a risk-based decision-support process. The goal is to facilitate the decision process by means of risk-based analyses of model predictions that incorporate current data and conceptual understandings. The most important question is whether the existing knowledge is adequate and sufficient for each particular contamination source / pathway in order to select a remedy(ies) now without any further characterization. The immediate evaluation of remedy options can help prioritize our efforts and reduce the time to completion and cost of the LANL environmental program. Our study addresses fundamental questions related to building

  20. Screening for Chemical Contributions to Breast Cancer Risk: A Case Study for Chemical Safety Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Ackerman, Janet M.; Dairkee, Shanaz H.; Fenton, Suzanne E.; Johnson, Dale; Navarro, Kathleen M.; Osborne, Gwendolyn; Rudel, Ruthann A.; Solomon, Gina M.; Zeise, Lauren; Janssen, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Background Current approaches to chemical screening, prioritization, and assessment are being reenvisioned, driven by innovations in chemical safety testing, new chemical regulations, and demand for information on human and environmental impacts of chemicals. To conceptualize these changes through the lens of a prevalent disease, the Breast Cancer and Chemicals Policy project convened an interdisciplinary expert panel to investigate methods for identifying chemicals that may increase breast cancer risk. Methods Based on a review of current evidence, the panel identified key biological processes whose perturbation may alter breast cancer risk. We identified corresponding assays to develop the Hazard Identification Approach for Breast Carcinogens (HIA-BC), a method for detecting chemicals that may raise breast cancer risk. Finally, we conducted a literature-based pilot test of the HIA-BC. Results The HIA-BC identifies assays capable of detecting alterations to biological processes relevant to breast cancer, including cellular and molecular events, tissue changes, and factors that alter susceptibility. In the pilot test of the HIA-BC, chemicals associated with breast cancer all demonstrated genotoxic or endocrine activity, but not necessarily both. Significant data gaps persist. Conclusions This approach could inform the development of toxicity testing that targets mechanisms relevant to breast cancer, providing a basis for identifying safer chemicals. The study identified important end points not currently evaluated by federal testing programs, including altered mammary gland development, Her2 activation, progesterone receptor activity, prolactin effects, and aspects of estrogen receptor β activity. This approach could be extended to identify the biological processes and screening methods relevant for other common diseases. Citation Schwarzman MR, Ackerman JM, Dairkee SH, Fenton SE, Johnson D, Navarro KM, Osborne G, Rudel RA, Solomon GM, Zeise L, Janssen S. 2015

  1. Relative risk site evaluation for buildings 7740 and 7741 Fort Campbell, Kentucky

    SciTech Connect

    Last, G.V.; Gilmore, T.J.; Bronson, F.J.

    1998-01-01

    Buildings 7740 and 7741 are a part of a former nuclear weapon`s storage and maintenance facility located in the southeastern portion of Fort Campbell, Kentucky. This underground tunnel complex was originally used as a classified storage area beginning in 1949 and continuing until 1969. Staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory recently completed a detailed Relative Risk Site Evaluation of the facility. This evaluation included (1) obtaining engineering drawings of the facility and associated structures, (2) conducting detailed radiological surveys, (3) air sampling, (4) sampling drainage systems, and (5) sampling the underground wastewater storage tank. Ten samples were submitted for laboratory analysis of radionuclides and priority pollutant metals, and two samples submitted for analysis of volatile organic compounds. No volatile organic contaminants were detected using field instruments or laboratory analyses. However, several radionuclides and metals were detected in water and/or soil/sediment samples collected from this facility. Of the radionuclides detected, only {sup 226}Ra may have come from facility operations; however, its concentration is at least one order of magnitude below the relative-risk comparison value. Several metals (arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, copper, mercury, lead, and antimony) were found to exceed the relative-risk comparison values for water, while only arsenic, cadmium, and lead were found to exceed the relative risk comparison values for soil. Of these constituents, it is believed that only arsenic, beryllium, mercury, and lead may have come from facility operations. Other significant hazards posed by the tunnel complex include radon exposure and potentially low oxygen concentrations (<19.5% in atmosphere) if the tunnel complex is not allowed to vent to the outside air. Asbestos-wrapped pipes, lead-based paint, rat poison, and possibly a selenium rectifier are also present within the tunnel complex.

  2. European approaches to work-related stress: a critical review on risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Zoni, Silvia; Lucchini, Roberto G

    2012-03-01

    In recent years, various international organizations have raised awareness regarding psychosocial risks and work-related stress. European stakeholders have also taken action on these issues by producing important documents, such as position papers and government regulations, which are reviewed in this article. In particular, 4 European models that have been developed for the assessment and management of work-related stress are considered here. Although important advances have been made in the understanding of work-related stress, there are still gaps in the translation of this knowledge into effective practice at the enterprise level. There are additional problems regarding the methodology in the evaluation of work-related stress. The European models described in this article are based on holistic, global and participatory approaches, where the active role of and involvement of workers are always emphasized. The limitations of these models are in the lack of clarity on preventive intervention and, for two of them, the lack of instrument standardization for risk evaluation. The comparison among the European models to approach work-related stress, although with limitations and socio-cultural differences, offers the possibility for the development of a social dialogue that is important in defining the correct and practical methodology for work stress evaluation and prevention. PMID:22953229

  3. Preoperative evaluation and comprehensive risk assessment for children with Down syndrome.

    PubMed

    Lewanda, Amy Feldman; Matisoff, Andrew; Revenis, Mary; Harahsheh, Ashraf; Futterman, Craig; Nino, Gustavo; Greenberg, Jay; Myseros, John S; Rosenbaum, Kenneth N; Summar, Marshall

    2016-04-01

    Down syndrome is a common chromosome disorder affecting all body systems. This creates unique physiologic concerns that can affect safety during anesthesia and surgery. Little consensus exists, however, on the best way to evaluate children with Down syndrome in preparation for surgery. We review a number of salient topics affecting these children in the perioperative period, including cervical spine instability, cardiovascular abnormalities, pulmonary hypertension, upper airway obstruction, hematologic disturbances, prematurity, low birth weight, and the use of supplements and alternative therapies. Recommendations include obtaining a complete blood count to detect an increased risk for bleeding or stroke, and cardiology evaluation to identify patients with pulmonary hypertension, as well as undiagnosed or residual heart disease. Pediatric cardiac anesthesiologists and intensivists should be involved as needed. The potential for cervical spine instability should be considered, and the anesthesiologist may wish to have several options available both for the medications and equipment used. The child's family should always be asked if he or she is on any nutritional supplements, as some products marketed to families may have secondary effects such as inhibition of platelet function. Using this evaluation in presurgical planning will allow physicians to better consider the individual circumstances for their patients with Down syndrome. Our goal was to optimize patient safety by choosing the most appropriate setting and perioperative personnel, and to mitigate those risk factors amenable to intervention. PMID:26749540

  4. Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

    PubMed Central

    Sexton, Ken

    2012-01-01

    Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

  5. Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for

  6. [Heavy metals distribution characteristics and ecological risk evaluation in surface sediments of dammed Jinshan lake].

    PubMed

    Zhou, Xiao-Hong; Liu, Long-Mei; Chen, Xi; Chen, Zhi-Gang; Zhang, Jin-Ping; Li, Yi-Min; Liu, Biao

    2014-11-01

    In order to reveal the pollution loading of heavy metals in Dammed Jinshan lake, six heavy metals (As, Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn, Cr) from 18 sediment samples were analyzed using ICP, and the distribution characteristics of heavy metals in the sediment were comprehensively evaluated through concentration coefficient, geo-acumulation indexes, potential ecological risk evaluation and traceability analysis. The results showed that (1) the average contents of As, Pb, Cu, Zn, Cr, Cd were 23.22, 26.20, 24.42, 143.12, 245.30 and 0.67 mg x kg(-1), respectively, in the surface sediments of dammed Jinshan Lake. The average contents of Pb and Cu were lower than the primary standard and secondary standards of soil environmental quality standards. The average contents of Zn and Cr were lower than the primary standard and higher than the secondary standards of soil environmental quality standards. The average contents of As and Cd were higher than the primary and secondary standards of soil environmental quality standards. From the spatial distribution, the contents of Pb and Zn were the highest at sampling site No. 1, which was located at the Beigushan Square. The contents of As,Cu, Cr, Cd were the highest at sampling sites Nos. 12, 3, 14, and 7, respectively; (2) The order of concentration coefficient was As > Cr > Cd > Pb > Zn > Cu, which indicated that the enrichment amount of As was the highest and that of Cu was the lowest; (3) Based on the geo-acumulation indexes, the Cu is clean and Pb, Zn, Cd is the light pollution and As, Cr moderate pollution; (4) The order of Potential ecological risk coefficient was Cd > As > Cr > Pb > Cu > Zn, Cr, Pb, Cu, Zn were of light ecological risk and As, Cd were of medium ecological risk. From the spatial distribution, the sampling sites Nos. 1, 6, 7 and 12 had medium potential ecological risk, and the rest sample points had slight potential ecological risk; (5) The principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the main reason for the differences

  7. [Pollution evaluation and health risk assessment of heavy metals from atmospheric deposition in Lanzhou].

    PubMed

    Li, Ping; Xue, Su-Yin; Wang, Sheng-Li; Nan, Zhong-Ren

    2014-03-01

    In order to evaluate the contamination and health risk of heavy metals from atmospheric deposition in Lanzhou, samples of atmospheric deposition were collected from 11 sampling sites respectively and their concentrations of heavy metals were determined. The results showed that the average contents of Cu, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Zn and Mn were 82.22, 130.31, 4.34, 88.73, 40.64, 369.23 and 501.49 mg x kg(-1), respectively. There was great difference among different functional areas for all elements except Mn. According to the results, the enrichment factor score of Mn was close to 1, while the enrichment of Zn, Ni, Cu and Cr was more serious, and Pb and Cd were extremely enriched. The assessment results of geoaccumulation index of potential ecological risk indicated that the pollution of Cd in the atmospheric deposition of Lanzhou should be classified as extreme degree, and that of Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb as between slight and extreme degrees, and Cr as practically uncontaminated. Contaminations of atmospheric dust by heavy metals in October to the next March were more serious than those from April to August. Health risk assessment indicated that the heavy metals in atmospheric deposition were mainly ingested by human bodies through hand-mouth ingestion. The non-cancer risk was higher for children than for adults. The order of non-cancer hazard indexes of heavy metals was Pb > Cr > Cd > Cu > Ni > Zn. The non-cancer hazard indexes and carcinogen risks of heavy metals were both lower than their threshold values, suggesting that they will not harm the health. PMID:24881392

  8. Evaluation of testicular dose and associated risk from common pelvis radiation therapy in Iran.

    PubMed

    Shanei, Ahmad; Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi, Milad

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) was also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that, the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10,000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a correlation between TD and patient's pelvis size (r = 0.275, P < 0.001). Using the student's t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk. PMID:25022453

  9. Evaluating the risk of mixtures in the indoor air of primary school classrooms.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Nitika; Ayoko, Godwin A; Salthammer, Tunga; Morawska, Lidia

    2015-10-01

    In school environments, children are constantly exposed to mixtures of airborne substances, derived from a variety of sources, both in the classroom and in the school surroundings. It is important to evaluate the hazardous properties of these mixtures, in order to conduct risk assessments of their impact on children's health. Within this context, through the application of a maximum cumulative ratio approach, this study aimed to explore whether health risks due to indoor air mixtures are driven by a single substance or are due to cumulative exposure to various substances. This methodology requires knowledge of the concentration of substances in the air mixture, together with a health-related weighting factor (i.e. reference concentration or lowest concentration of interest), which is necessary to calculate the hazard index. Maximum cumulative ratio and hazard index values were then used to categorise the mixtures into four groups, based on their hazard potential and therefore appropriate risk management strategies. Air samples were collected from classrooms in 25 primary schools in Brisbane, Australia. Analysis was conducted based on the measured concentration of these substances in about 300 air samples. The results showed that in 92 % of the schools, indoor air mixtures belonged to the 'low concern' group, and therefore, they did not require any further assessment. In the remaining schools, toxicity was mainly governed by a single substance, with a very small number of schools having a multiple substance mix which required a combined risk assessment. The proposed approach enables the identification of such schools and thus aids in the efficient health risk management of pollution emissions and air quality in the school environment. PMID:26003088

  10. Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

    2016-05-01

    Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

  11. An overview of BWR Mark-1 containment venting risk implications: An evaluation of potential Mark-1 containment improvements

    SciTech Connect

    Wagner, K.C.; Dallman, R.J.; Galyean, W.J.

    1989-06-01

    This report supplements containment venting risk evaluations performed for the Mark-I Containment Performance Improvement (CPI) Program. Quantitative evaluations using simplified containment event trees for station blackout sequences were performed to evaluate potential risk reduction offered by containment venting, and improved automatic depressurization system with a dedicated power source, and an additional supply of water to either the containment sprays or the vessel with a dedicated power source. The risk calculations were based on the Draft NUREG-1150 results for Peach Bottom with selected enhancements. Several sensitivity studies were performed to investigate phenomenological, operational, and equipment performance uncertainties. Qualitative risk evaluations were provided for loss of long-term containment heat removal and anticipated transients without scram for the same set of improvements. A limited discussion is provided on the generic applicability of these results to other plants with Mark-I containments. 23 refs., 15 figs., 13 tabs.

  12. The Struggle to Prevent and Evaluate: Application of Population Attributable Risk and Preventive Fraction to Suicide Prevention Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krysinska, Karolina; Martin, Graham

    2009-01-01

    Population attributable risk (PAR) estimates have been used in suicide research to evaluate the impact of psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors, including affective disorders, traumatic life events, and unemployment. A parallel concept of preventive fraction (PF), allowing for estimation of the impact of protective factors and effectiveness…

  13. Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Nanpeng

    As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this

  14. Evaluation of Lay Support in Pregnant women with Social risk (ELSIPS): a randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Maternal, neonatal and child health outcomes are worse in families from black and ethnic minority groups and disadvantaged backgrounds. There is little evidence on whether lay support improves maternal and infant outcomes among women with complex social needs within a disadvantaged multi-ethnic population in the United Kingdom (UK). Method/Design The aim of this study is to evaluate a lay Pregnancy Outreach Worker (POW) service for nulliparous women identified as having social risk within a maternity service that is systematically assessing social risks alongside the usual obstetric and medical risks. The study design is a randomised controlled trial (RCT) in nulliparous women assessed as having social risk comparing standard maternity care with the addition of referral to the POW support service. The POWs work alongside community midwifery teams and offer individualised support to women to encourage engagement with services (health and social care) from randomisation (before 28 weeks gestation) until 6 weeks after birth. The primary outcomes have been chosen on the basis that they are linked to maternal and infant health. The two primary outcomes are engagement with antenatal care, assessed by the number of antenatal visits; and maternal depression, assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale at 8-12 weeks after birth. Secondary outcomes include maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, routine child health assessments, including immunisation uptake and breastfeeding at 6 weeks. Other psychological outcomes (self efficacy) and mother-to-infant bonding will also be collected using validated tools. A sample size of 1316 will provide 90% power (at the 5% significance level) to detect increased engagement with antenatal services of 1.5 visits and a reduction of 1.5 in the average EPDS score for women with two or more social risk factors, with power in excess of this for women with any social risk factor. Analysis will be by intention to

  15. Evaluation of snow-glide risk by modelling and on-site assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leitinger, Georg; Meusburger, Katrin; Rüdisser, Johannes; Tasser, Erich; Höller, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Abandonment of agricultural practices on alpine grasslands lead to increasing snow-glide intensities due to lower surface roughness of the vegetation. Beneath the danger of snow-glide avalanches snow gliding leads to soil erosion and damaging of young trees at afforested sites. Especially in high altitudes afforestation is important to protect settlements and infrastructure against snow-gliding and glide avalanches. Snow-glide damages are therefore of particular danger for these afforestation sites. In the light of future climate change and warmer winter periods, studies already state increasing snow-glide risk and the occurrence of glide avalanches. This study presents an approach to evaluate snow-glide risk by combining the refined Spatial Snow Glide Model (SSGM) first published by Leitinger et al. (2008) and the Guidelines to Identify Snow-Glide Areas (GISGA) proposed by Höller (2012), an on-site risk analyses approach. First, GISGA was validated on the basis of corresponding snow-glide measurements. Second, a potential snow-glide map for an area in the Eastern Alps covering 20000 km² was modelled. The results revealed considerable areas of high snow-glide risk. Using the average amount of winter precipitation between 1990 and 2010 in the SSGM shows higher vulnerability for the northern part of the study area (Tyrol, Austria) than in the southern part (South Tyrol, Italy) because of lower winter precipitation. However, running the SSGM based on the highest winter precipitation registered in the study area between 1801 and 2003 exhibits the possibility of very high snow-glide risk for most parts of the study area with significant increasing risk in the southern part. Given the very probable future climate during winter periods with increasing temperatures but uncertain development of precipitation patterns, snow-glide activity and linked glide avalanches might further increase at least in areas and altitudes with solid precipitation. In combination with the

  16. Reducing the Incidence of Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting Begins With Risk Screening: An Evaluation of the Evidence.

    PubMed

    Smith, Christopher A; Ruth-Sahd, Lisa

    2016-04-01

    Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is a daily concern for patients and perianesthesia nurses. PONV is experienced by approximately one third of all surgical patients. Identification of patients at risk for PONV through preoperative risk assessment is an effective means in reducing the incidence of PONV. Perianesthesia nurses are positioned to implement such risk assessments by using simplified risk scores to identify moderate to high-risk patients. Risk assessment allows for facilitation of targeted prophylaxis which positively impacts the patients' surgical outcome and experience. Targeted prophylaxis is efficacious in reducing the institutional incidence of PONV which decreases resource utilization and cost. The perianesthesia nurse is the crucial component in minimizing the PONV in the post-surgical patient. This evaluation of the evidence reveals that preoperative PONV risk screening leads to decreased incidence of PONV for the surgical patient, improves patient satisfaction and reduces postoperative complications. PMID:27037170

  17. Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as

  18. Evaluating the impact of type 2 diabetes mellitus on cardiovascular risk in persons with metabolic syndrome using the UKPDS risk engine

    PubMed Central

    Ogedengbe, O Stephen; Ezeani, Ignatius U; Chukwuonye, Ijezie I; Anyabolu, Ernest N; Ozor, Ikemefuna I; Eregie, Aihanuwa

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of coexistence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on the estimated cardiovascular risk as calculated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetic Study risk engine (UKPDS-RE) and also to determine the impact of the coexistence of MS and T2DM on the 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease and stroke. Methodology This is a cross-sectional study in which convenience sampling technique was used to recruit 124 consecutive persons with T2DM and 96 controls using a questionnaire administered technique. The World Health Organization (WHO) criterion was used to define MS and the UKPDS-RE was used to identify persons with increased risk for stroke and those with increased risk for coronary heart disease. The data obtained were analyzed using SPSS version 16. Statistical comparisons were made with chi-square for comparison of proportions. A P-value of less than 0.05 was taken as statistically significant. Results Fifteen subjects were identified as having an increased 10-year risk for stroke and ten as having an increased risk for a coronary event. The odds of a T2DM subject with MS having an increased risk for stroke compared with a T2DM subject without MS was 0.9579≈1 while the odds of a T2DM subject with MS developing an increased risk for a coronary event compared with a T2DM subject without MS was =3.451≈3. Conclusion MS was more common in subjects with T2DM compared with controls (irrespective of the diagnostic criteria used) and MS appears to increase the risk of a coronary event in subjects with T2DM by threefold. Also from this study, MS did not appear to cause an additional increase in the risk of stroke in subjects with T2DM. PMID:26396537

  19. Newly developed mouse newborn behavioral testing method for evaluating the risk of neurotoxicity of environmental toxicants.

    PubMed

    Nagao, Tetsuji; Kagawa, Nao; Komada, Munekazu

    2013-12-01

    Although there have been a vast number of behavioral toxicology studies carried out on adult mice and rats, there have been few neurobehavioral studies utilizing their newborn animals. Thus, we developed a mouse newborn behavioral testing method for evaluating the risk of neurotoxicity of chemicals, by means of determining the newborn's activity using the tare function of an analytical balance. The unstable weighing values resulting from movement of the newborn on the balance recorded by a personal computer every 0.1 s, and the total activities of a newborn from the start time of weighing to individual times of evaluation were calculated. In addition, we confirmed the usefulness of our method by determining the activity of mouse newborns with microcephaly induced by prenatal exposure to a neurotoxicant, methylnitrosourea. PMID:22887005

  20. Level 3 baseline risk evaluation for Building 3506 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect

    Golden, K.M.; Robers, S.K.; Cretella, F.M.

    1994-12-01

    This report presents the results of the Level 3 Baseline Risk Evaluation (BRE) performed on Building 3506 located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This BRE is intended to provide an analysis of the potential for adverse health effects (current or future) posed by contaminants at the facility. The decision was made to conduct a Level 3 (least rigorous) BRE because only residual contamination exists in the building. Future plans for the facility (demolition) also preclude a rigorous analysis. Site characterization activities for Building 3506 were conducted in fall of 1993. Concrete core samples were taken from the floors and walls of both the cell and the east gallery. These cores were analyzed for radionuclides and organic and inorganic chemicals. Smear samples and direct radiation measurements were also collected. Sediment exists on the floor of the cell and was also analyzed. To adequately characterize the risks posed by the facility, receptors for both current and potential future land uses were evaluated. For the current land use conditions, two receptors were evaluated. The first receptor is a hypothetical maintenance worker who spends 250 days (8 hours/day) for 25 years working in the facility. The remaining receptor evaluated is a hypothetical S and M worker who spends 2 days (8 hours/day) per year for 25 years working within the facility. This particular receptor best exemplifies the current worker scenario for the facility. The two current exposure scenarios and parameters of exposure (e.g., inhalation and ingestion rates) have been developed to provide a conservative (i.e. health protective) estimate of potential exposure.

  1. Iterative Evaluation in a Mobile Counseling and Testing Program to Reach People of Color at Risk for HIV--New Strategies Improve Program Acceptability, Effectiveness, and Evaluation Capabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles

    2011-01-01

    This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program's…

  2. Health risks of electromagnetic fields. Part I: Evaluation and assessment of electric and magnetic fields.

    PubMed

    Habash, Riadh W Y; Brodsky, Lynn M; Leiss, William; Krewski, Daniel; Repacholi, Michael

    2003-01-01

    Exposure to electric and magnetic fields (EMF) emanating from the generation, distribution, and utilization of electricity is widespread. The major debate in recent years has focused on the possibility that exposure to EMF may result in adverse health consequences, including the development of cancer. This article provides a review and evaluation of potential health risks associated with residential and occupational exposure to EMF. In addition to reviewing data from laboratory, epidemiology, and clinical studies, we examine exposure data from field measurement surveys and exposure guidelines that have been established for EMF. Currently, the evidence in support of an association between EMF and childhood cancer is limited, although this issue warrants further investigation. Evidence of an association between EMF exposure and adult cancers, derived largely from occupational settings, is inconsistent, precluding clear conclusions. There is little evidence of an association between EMF and noncancer health effects. Epidemiological studies of EMF and population health are limited by exposure measurement error and the lack of a clear dose/response relationship in studies suggesting possible health risks. Further research is needed to clarify the ambiguous findings from present studies and to determine if EMF exposure poses a health risk. PMID:15018215

  3. Application of ecological risk assessment principles to evaluation of oil spill impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Brannon, E.L.; Neff, J.M.; Pearson, W.H.; Stubblefield, W.A.; Maki, A.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecological risk assessments are often used prospectively to predict the consequences of human activities on the environment. Laboratory and field studies were conducted to evaluate the ecological impacts to commercial fishery resources resulting from the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Using the ecorisk paradigm, each of the studies correlated concentrations of petroleum hydrocarbons in different environmental compartments with observed biological effects in local populations of herring and pink salmon. Hydrocarbon concentrations in the water column of the Sound were elevated for a short time after the spill, but 99.7% of the samples remained below the Alaska water quality standard and returned to background levels within a few months. PAH concentrations in sediments and eggs correlated with a very low degree of injury to early life stages of herring and salmon. Overall, effects of the spill on populations of herring and pink salmon were minimal and post-spill harvests of the year classes at greater risk of spill injury in the two years following the spill were at or near record levels. The program underscores the utility and strength of the risk assessment paradigm to identify contaminant related injury while considering effects attributable to natural ecosystem variability.

  4. Evaluation of variation in the phosphoinositide-3-kinase catalytic subunit alpha oncogene and breast cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, K N; Garcia-Closas, M; Fredericksen, Z; Kosel, M; Pankratz, V S; Hopper, J L; Dite, G S; Apicella, C; Southey, M C; Schmidt, M K; Broeks, A; Van ‘t Veer, L J; Tollenaar, R A E M; Fasching, P A; Beckmann, M W; Hein, A; Ekici, A B; Johnson, N; Peto, J; dos Santos Silva, I; Gibson, L; Sawyer, E; Tomlinson, I; Kerin, M J; Chanock, S; Lissowska, J; Hunter, D J; Hoover, R N; Thomas, G D; Milne, R L; Pérez, JI Arias; González-Neira, A; Benítez, J; Burwinkel, B; Meindl, A; Schmutzler, R K; Bartrar, C R; Hamann, U; Ko, Y D; Brüning, T; Chang-Claude, J; Hein, R; Wang-Gohrke, S; Dörk, T; Schürmann, P; Bremer, M; Hillemanns, P; Bogdanova, N; Zalutsky, J V; Rogov, Y I; Antonenkova, N; Lindblom, A; Margolin, S; Mannermaa, A; Kataja, V; Kosma, V-M; Hartikainen, J; Chenevix-Trench, G; Chen, X; Peterlongo, P; Bonanni, B; Bernard, L; Manoukian, S; Wang, X; Cerhan, J; Vachon, C M; Olson, J; Giles, G G; Baglietto, L; McLean, C A; Severi, G; John, E M; Miron, A; Winqvist, R; Pylkäs, K; Jukkola-Vuorinen, A; Grip, M; Andrulis, I; Knight, J A; Glendon, G; Mulligan, A M; Cox, A; Brock, I W; Elliott, G; Cross, S S; Pharoah, P P; Dunning, A M; Pooley, K A; Humphreys, M K; Wang, J; Kang, D; Yoo, K-Y; Noh, D-Y; Sangrajrang, S; Gabrieau, V; Brennan, P; McKay, J; Anton-Culver, H; Ziogas, A; Couch, F J; Easton, D F

    2011-01-01

    Background: Somatic mutations in phosphoinositide-3-kinase catalytic subunit alpha (PIK3CA) are frequent in breast tumours and have been associated with oestrogen receptor (ER) expression, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 overexpression, lymph node metastasis and poor survival. The goal of this study was to evaluate the association between inherited variation in this oncogene and risk of breast cancer. Methods: A single-nucleotide polymorphism from the PIK3CA locus that was associated with breast cancer in a study of Caucasian breast cancer cases and controls from the Mayo Clinic (MCBCS) was genotyped in 5436 cases and 5280 controls from the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) study and in 30 949 cases and 29 788 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Results: Rs1607237 was significantly associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer in MCBCS, CGEMS and all studies of white Europeans combined (odds ratio (OR)=0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95–0.99, P=4.6 × 10−3), but did not reach significance in the BCAC replication study alone (OR=0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.01, P=0.139). Conclusion: Common germline variation in PIK3CA does not have a strong influence on the risk of breast cancer PMID:22033276

  5. Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl (Compiler); Guo, Ten-Huei

    2014-01-01

    The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

  6. Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2015-01-01

    The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

  7. Probabilistic evaluation of flood risk in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation (with uncertainty)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aronica, G. T.; Franza, F.; Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.

    2009-04-01

    The goal of the presented research is the derivation of flood risk maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation in a urban site in the UK, specifically the area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing impervi-ousness typical of the urban areas has been used to derive hydrodynamic characteristics of flood event (i.e, water depths and flow velocities). The knowledge of the water depth distribution and of the current velocities derived from the propagation model along with the knowledge of the building/social characteristics of urban areas from digital map data allowed for the production of risk maps based on properly defined risk indexes. These indexes are evaluated in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of single deter-ministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood of flood-ing at a given point as the sum of data uncertainty, model structural error and parameterization uncertainty.

  8. Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis

    2016-04-01

    The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk

  9. The development of a risk of failure evaluation tool for small dams in Mzingwane Catchment, Zimbabwe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mufute, N. L.; Senzanje, A.; Kaseke, E.

    Small dams in Mzingwane Catchment in southern Zimbabwe are mostly in poor physical condition mainly due to lack of resources for repair and maintenance. Most of these dams are likely to fail thereby adversely affecting water availability and livelihoods in the area. To assist those involved in maintenance, repair and rehabilitation of small dams in resource poor and data sparse areas such as Mzingwane Catchment, a non-probabilistic but numerical risk of failure evaluation tool was developed. The tool helps to systematically, and objectively classify risk of failure of small dams, hence assist in the ranking of dams to prioritise and attend to first. This is important where resources are limited. The tool makes use of factors such as seepage, erosion and others that are traditionally used to assess condition of dams. In the development of the tool, an assessment of the physical condition of 44 (1 medium sized and 43 small dams) dams was done and the factors were identified and listed according to guidelines for design and maintenance of small dams. The description of the extent to which the factors affect the physical condition of small dams was then standardised. This was mainly guided by standard based and risk-based approaches to dam safety evaluation. Cause-effect diagrams were used to determine the stage at which each factor is involved in contributing to dam failure. Weights were then allocated to each factor depending on its stage or level in the process of causing dam failure. Scores were allocated to each factor based on its description and weight. Small dams design and maintenance guidelines were also used to guide the ranking and weighting of the factors. The tool was used to classify 10 dams. The risk of failure was low for one dam, moderate for one, high for four and very high for four dams, two of which had already failed. It was concluded that the tool could be used to rank the risk of failure of small dams in semi-arid areas. The tool needs to be

  10. Application of systematic coronary risk evaluation chart to identify chronic myeloid leukemia patients at risk of cardiovascular diseases during nilotinib treatment.

    PubMed

    Breccia, Massimo; Molica, Matteo; Zacheo, Irene; Serrao, Alessandra; Alimena, Giuliana

    2015-03-01

    Nilotinib is currently approved for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in chronic (CP) and accelerated phase (AP) after failure of imatinib and in newly diagnosed patients. Atherosclerotic events were retrospectively reported in patients with baseline cardiovascular risk factors during nilotinib treatment. We estimated the risk of developing atherosclerotic events in patients treated with second or first-line nilotinib, with a median follow-up of 48 months, by retrospectively applying the SCORE chart proposed by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and evaluating risk factors at baseline (diabetes, obesity, smoking, and hypertension). Overall, we enrolled in the study 82 CP patients treated frontline (42 CP patients at the dose of 600 mg BID) or after failure of other tyrosine kinase inhibitors (40 CP patients treated with 400 mg BID). The SCORE chart is based on the stratification of sex (male vs female), age (from 40 to 65 years), smoker vs non-smoker, systolic pressure (from 120 to 180 mm Hg), and cholesterol (measured in mmol/l, from 150 to 300 mg/dl). For statistical purposes, we considered patients subdivided in low, moderate, high (with a score >5), and very high risk. There were 48 males and 34 females, median age 51 years (range 22-84). According to WHO classification, 42 patients were classified as normal weight (BMI <25), 26 patients were overweight (BMI 26 ≤ 30), and 14 were obese (BMI >30). Retrospective classification according to the SCORE chart revealed that 27 patients (33 %) were in the low-risk category, 30 patients (36 %) in the moderate risk category, and 24 patients (29 %) in the high risk. As regards risk factors, we revealed that 17 patients (20.7 %) had a concomitant type II controlled diabetes (without organ damage), 23 patients (28 %) were smokers, 29 patients (35 %) were receiving concomitant drugs for hypertension, and 15 patients (18 %) had concomitant dyslipidemia. Overall, the cumulative incidence of

  11. Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

    2012-09-01

    Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to

  12. Risk of malignancy index as an evaluation of preoperative pelvic mass

    PubMed Central

    Bouzari, Zinatossadat; Yazdani, Shahla; Shirkhani Kelagar, Ziba; Abbaszadeh, Narges

    2011-01-01

    Background: Risk of malignancy index (RMI) is the best method for discriminating benign and malignant pelvic masses. The aim of this study was to determine the RMI for preoperative evaluation of pelvic mass. Methods: This study was performed on 182 women with adenexal mass referred to Yahyahnejiad Hospital of Babol University of Medical Sciences in Iran from 2007 to 2009.The sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of menopausal status, ultrasound finding of pelvic mass and level of serum CA-125, separately or combined into the RMI were calculated and compared. Results: The mean age of patients was 39.9±9.3 years. The RMI with the cut-off point of 265 had a sensitivity of 91.3%, specificity of 96.2 %, PPV of 77.7% and NPV of 98.7% for diagnosis of malignant masses. Conclusion: Risk of malignancy index should be an effective method for evaluating a patient with adnexal masses before operation and a cut-off point of 265 which has a very high sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values for discriminating malignant and benign pelvic masses. PMID:24551441

  13. Assessment of Risk in Chronic Airways Disease Evaluation (ARCADE): Protocol and preliminary data.

    PubMed

    Gale, Nichola S; Albarrati, Ali M; Munnery, Margaret M; Munnery, Iain C; Irfan, Mujammil; Bolton, Charlotte E; Rambaran, Curtis N; Singer, Ruth M Tal; Cockcroft, John R; Shale, Dennis J

    2014-11-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a multisystem disease. Established comorbidities include cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, loss of muscle mass and function, depression, and impaired quality of life. The natural history is not well understood. The Assessment of Risk in Chronic Airways Disease Evaluation (ARCADE) is a longitudinal study of comorbidities in COPD. The primary aims are to delineate the progression and interrelationships of cardiovascular disease and associated comorbidities. Each year ARCADE aims to recruit 250 patients diagnosed with COPD and 50 comparators (free from respiratory disease). Assessments include spirometry, body composition, blood pressure, aortic stiffness (pulse wave velocity (PWV)), noninvasive measures of cardiac output, systemic inflammatory mediators, blood and urine biochemistry, and physical and health outcomes. These will be repeated at 2 and 5 years. In the first year of recruitment, 350 patients and 100 comparators were recruited. The reproducibility of aortic PWV, cardiac output, stroke volume, and cardiac index was evaluated and accepted in 30 patients free from overt cardiovascular disease. The preliminary data from ARCADE have demonstrated acceptable reproducibility of hemodynamic outcome measures. Further longitudinal data collection will increase knowledge of the progression and interactions between cardiovascular risk factors and other comorbidities in COPD. PMID:25159833

  14. Evaluation of self-combustion risk in tire derived aggregate fills.

    PubMed

    Arroyo, Marcos; San Martin, Ignacio; Olivella, Sebastian; Saaltink, Maarten W

    2011-01-01

    Lightweight tire derived aggregate (TDA) fills are a proven recycling outlet for waste tires, requiring relatively low cost waste processing and being competitively priced against other lightweight fill alternatives. However its value has been marred as several TDA fills have self-combusted during the early applications of this technique. An empirical review of these cases led to prescriptive guidelines from the ASTM aimed at avoiding this problem. This approach has been successful in avoiding further incidents of self-combustion. However, at present there remains no rational method available to quantify self-combustion risk in TDA fills. This means that it is not clear which aspects of the ASTM guidelines are essential and which are accessory. This hinders the practical use of TDA fills despite their inherent advantages as lightweight fill. Here a quantitative approach to self-combustion risk evaluation is developed and illustrated with a parametric analysis of an embankment case. This is later particularized to model a reported field self-combustion case. The approach is based on the available experimental observations and incorporates well-tested methodological (ISO corrosion evaluation) and theoretical tools (finite element analysis of coupled heat and mass flow). The results obtained offer clear insights into the critical aspects of the problem, allowing already some meaningful recommendations for guideline revision. PMID:21592761

  15. Risk Evaluation of Multiple Hazards during Sediment and Water Related Disasters in a Small Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamanoi, Kazuki; Fujita, Masaharu

    2016-04-01

    To reduce human damage due to sediment and water related disasters induced by heavy rainfall, warning and evacuation system is very important. In Japan, the Meteorological Agency issues the sediment disaster alert when the potential of sediment disaster increases. Following the alert, local government issues evacuation advisory considering the alert and premonitory phenomena. However, it is very difficult for local people to perceive the dangerousness around them because the alert and advisory do not contain any definite information. Therefore, they sometimes misjudge the evacuation action. One reason of this is not only crucial hazards but also relatively small-scale multiple hazards take place and rise evacuation difficulties during sediment and water related disaster. Examples of small-scale hazards include: rainfall-associated hazards such as poor visibility or road submergence; landslide-associated hazards such as slope failure or sediment inflow; and flood-associated hazards such as overtopping of river dike, inundation, or destruction of bridges. The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of multiple hazards during disaster events by numerical simulation. We applied the integrated sediment runoff model on unit channels, unit slopes, and slope units to an actual sediment and water related disaster occurred in a small basin in Tamba city, Hyogo, Japan. The maximum rainfall per hour was 91 mm (17/09/2014 2:00˜3:00) and the maximum daily precipitation was 414mm. The integrated model contains semi-physical based landslide prediction (sediment production) model, rainfall runoff model employing the kinematic wave method, model of sediment supply to channels, and bedload and suspended sediment transport model. We evaluated the risk of rainfall-associated hazards in each slope unit into 4 levels (Level I ˜ IV) using the rainfall intensity Ir [mm/hour]. The risk of flood- associated hazards were also estimated using the ratio of calculated water level and

  16. Evaluating the fall risk among elderly population by choice step reaction test.

    PubMed

    Wang, Donghai; Zhang, Jian; Sun, Yuliang; Zhu, Wenfei; Tian, Shiliu; Liu, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Falls during daily activities are often associated with injuries and physical disabilities, thereby affecting quality of life among elder adults. Balance control, which is crucial in avoiding falls, is composed of two elements: muscle strength and central nervous system (CNS) control. A number of studies have reported that reduced muscle strength raises the risk of falling. However, to date there has been only limited research focused on the relationship between fall risk and the CNS. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between CNS and risk of falling among the elderly. A total of 140 elderly people (92 females and 48 males) were divided into faller and nonfaller groups based on questionnaire responses concerning falls in their daily life. Participants undertook a choice step reaction test in which they were required to respond to random visual stimuli using foot movements as fast as possible in the left or right directions. Response time was quantified as premotor time (PMT) and motor time (MT). In addition, the participants' electro-myography data were recorded during the choice step reaction test. A maximal isokinetic torque test was also performed. PMT was greater in the fallers than in the nonfallers group. There was a significant difference between fall status and direction on PMT. PMT of the left limb in nonfallers was faster than the right, but in fallers there was no difference between left and right limbs. A similar phenomenon was also observed for MT. There were significant differences between fallers and nonfallers in maximum isokinetic torque at knee and ankle joints. The correct rate of PMT was higher than other variables, such as MT and maximal isokinetic torque, in evaluating elderly fall risk by using logistic regression analyses. The results suggest that PMT in the choice step reaction test could be a useful parameter to assess risk of fall among elder adults. In addition, decreased maximal isokinetic torque was related to greater PMT

  17. Evaluating the fall risk among elderly population by choice step reaction test

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Donghai; Zhang, Jian; Sun, Yuliang; Zhu, Wenfei; Tian, Shiliu; Liu, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Falls during daily activities are often associated with injuries and physical disabilities, thereby affecting quality of life among elder adults. Balance control, which is crucial in avoiding falls, is composed of two elements: muscle strength and central nervous system (CNS) control. A number of studies have reported that reduced muscle strength raises the risk of falling. However, to date there has been only limited research focused on the relationship between fall risk and the CNS. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between CNS and risk of falling among the elderly. A total of 140 elderly people (92 females and 48 males) were divided into faller and nonfaller groups based on questionnaire responses concerning falls in their daily life. Participants undertook a choice step reaction test in which they were required to respond to random visual stimuli using foot movements as fast as possible in the left or right directions. Response time was quantified as premotor time (PMT) and motor time (MT). In addition, the participants’ electro-myography data were recorded during the choice step reaction test. A maximal isokinetic torque test was also performed. PMT was greater in the fallers than in the nonfallers group. There was a significant difference between fall status and direction on PMT. PMT of the left limb in nonfallers was faster than the right, but in fallers there was no difference between left and right limbs. A similar phenomenon was also observed for MT. There were significant differences between fallers and nonfallers in maximum isokinetic torque at knee and ankle joints. The correct rate of PMT was higher than other variables, such as MT and maximal isokinetic torque, in evaluating elderly fall risk by using logistic regression analyses. The results suggest that PMT in the choice step reaction test could be a useful parameter to assess risk of fall among elder adults. In addition, decreased maximal isokinetic torque was related to greater

  18. Drug interactions evaluation: An integrated part of risk assessment of therapeutics

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S.; Zhao, Ping; Huang, Shiew-Mei

    2010-03-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug interactions can lead to serious adverse events or decreased drug efficacy. The evaluation of a new molecular entity's (NME's) drug-drug interaction potential is an integral part of risk assessment during drug development and regulatory review. Alteration of activities of enzymes or transporters involved in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, or excretion of a new molecular entity by concomitant drugs may alter drug exposure, which can impact response (safety or efficacy). The recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft drug interaction guidance ( (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm072101.pdf)) highlights the methodologies and criteria that may be used to guide drug interaction evaluation by industry and regulatory agencies and to construct informative labeling for health practitioner and patients. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration established a 'Drug Development and Drug Interactions' website to provide up-to-date information regarding evaluation of drug interactions ( (http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DevelopmentResources/DrugInteractionsLabeling/ucm080499.htm)). This review summarizes key elements in the FDA drug interaction guidance and new scientific developments that can guide the evaluation of drug-drug interactions during the drug development process.

  19. Evaluation of a prognostic model for risk of relapse in stage I seminoma surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Chung, Peter; Daugaard, Gedske; Tyldesley, Scott; Atenafu, Eshetu G; Panzarella, Tony; Kollmannsberger, Christian; Warde, Padraig

    2015-01-01

    A prognostic model for relapse risk in stage I seminoma managed by surveillance after orchiectomy has been developed but has not been independently validated. Individual data on 685 stage I seminoma surveillance patients managed between 1998 and 2005 at three cancer centers were retrospectively analyzed. Variables including age and pathology of the primary tumor: small vessel invasion, tumor size, and invasion of rete testis were analyzed. Specifically median tumor size and rete testis invasion was tested to evaluate the performance of the published model. Median follow-up was 3.85 years (0.1–10.29), 88 patients relapsed and 5-year relapse-free rate was 85%. In univariate analysis, median tumor size (<3 cm vs. ≥3 cm) was associated with increased risk of relapse but rete testis invasion was not, nor was age and small vessel invasion. In multivariable analysis, tumor size above median (cutpoint of 3 cm) was a predictor for relapse, HR 1.87 (95% CI 1.15, 3.06), whereas rete testis invasion HR 1.36, (95% CI 0.81, 2.28) was not statistically significant. The 3-year relapse risk based on the primary tumor size alone increased from 9% for 1 cm primary tumor to 26% for 8 cm tumor. A clinically useful, highly discriminating prognostic model remains elusive in stage I seminoma surveillance as we were unable to validate the previously developed model. However, primary tumor size retained prognostic importance and a scale of relapse risk based on the unit increment of tumor size was developed to help guide patients and clinicians in decision making. PMID:25236854

  20. Evaluation of the Intussusception Risk after Pentavalent Rotavirus Vaccination in Finnish Infants

    PubMed Central

    Leino, Tuija; Ollgren, Jukka; Strömberg, Nina; Elonsalo, Ulpu

    2016-01-01

    Background An association between rotavirus immunisation and intussusception (IS) has been suggested with present rotavirus vaccines in post-licensure studies. In Finland, rotavirus vaccination programme was implemented in September 2009 using a 2, 3, and 5 months schedule with the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine. By the end of 2013, it is estimated that 719 000 rotavirus vaccine doses have been given in the national programme of which 240 000 were first doses. Nationwide register allows us to evaluate the association between rotavirus vaccination and IS. Methods and Materials Cases of IS diagnosed during 1999–2013 were identified from National Hospital Discharge Register. All cases under 250 days of age diagnosed during 2009–2013 were confirmed by reviewing medical charts. Self-controlled case-series method was used to assess the risk of IS during 1–21 days compared to 22–42 days post vaccination. Findings In register data the relative incidence of IS at 2 months of age between the post and pre vaccination era was 9.1 (95%CI 2.0–84.3). We identified 22 verified cases with date of admission less than 43 days after any of the three rotavirus vaccine doses. The incidence of IS in the risk period after the 1st dose relative to the control period was 2.0 (95% CI 0.5–8.4; p = 0.34.) Number of excess IS cases per 100 000 first vaccine doses was therefore estimated to be 1.04 (95% CI 0.0–2.5), i.e. one additional IS case per 96 000 first doses of rotavirus vaccine (95% CI 54 600 to ∞). There was no risk detected after 2nd and 3rd doses. Conclusion The finding is in line with the recent published estimates. The benefits of rotavirus immunisation programme outweigh possible small risks of intussusception. PMID:26950702

  1. Fractures of the Sacrum After Chemoradiation for Rectal Carcinoma: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Radiographic Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Han Jo; Boland, Patrick J.; Meredith, Dennis S.; Lis, Eric; Zhang Zhigang; Shi Weiji; Yamada, Yoshiya J.; Goodman, Karyn A.

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: Sacral insufficiency fractures after adjuvant radiation for rectal carcinoma can present similarly to recurrent disease. As a complication associated with pelvic radiation, it is important to be aware of the incidence and risk factors associated with sacral fractures in the clinical assessment of these patients. Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2007, a total of 582 patients with locally advanced rectal carcinoma received adjuvant chemoradiation and surgical excision. Of these, 492 patients had imaging studies available for review. Hospital records and imaging studies from all 492 patients were retrospectively evaluated to identify risk factors associated with developing a sacral insufficiency fracture. Results: With a median follow-up time of 3.5 years, the incidence of sacral fractures was 7.1% (35/492). The 4-year sacral fracture free rate was 0.91. Univariate analysis showed that increasing age ({>=}60 vs. <60 years), female sex, and history of osteoporosis were significantly associated with shorter time to sacral fracture (P=.01, P=.004, P=.001, respectively). There was no significant difference in the time to sacral fracture for patients based on stage, radiotherapy dose, or chemotherapy regimen. Multivariate analysis showed increasing age ({>=}60 vs. <60 years, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22-5.13, P=.01), female sex (HR = 2.64, CI = 1.29-5.38, P=.008), and history of osteoporosis (HR = 3.23, CI = 1.23-8.50, P=.02) were independent risk factors associated with sacral fracture. Conclusions: Sacral insufficiency fractures after pelvic radiation for rectal carcinoma occur more commonly than previously described. Independent risk factors associated with fracture were osteoporosis, female sex, and age greater than 60 years.

  2. The Chinese physicians' CardiovAscular Risk Evaluation (CARE) survey: an assessment of physicians' own cardiovascular risks

    PubMed Central

    Hu, D-Y; Yu, J-M; Chen, F; Sun, Y-H; Jiang, Q-W

    2010-01-01

    Objective To estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD)/coronary heart disease (CHD) in physicians using two models (the Chinese and Framingham models). Methods This was a multicentre, cross-sectional survey, which recruited cardiovascular physicians from 386 medical centres in all 31 provinces and municipalities in China. Cardiovascular risk factors such as body mass index, blood pressure and cholesterol were recorded during enrolment. Control rates (%) of hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes were defined according to guidelines. Participants aged ≥35 years completed the Framingham model and participants aged ≤59 years completed the Chinese prediction model. Results A total of 820 (41.5%) women and 1598 (78.7%) men had ≥1 markedly raised CVD risk factors. The Chinese prediction model showed that 22 (1.2%) women and 143 (7.6%) men had a 10-year risk of ischaemic CVD ≥5%, and an above-average level of 10-year ischaemic CVD risk factors was found in 20.6% of women and in 54.6% of men. When the Framingham model was used, 268 (13.6%) women and 724 (35.7%) men had a 10-year absolute risk of CHD ≥5%. Hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolaemia were only controlled in 58.2%, 46.6% and 38.5% of participants, respectively. Only 30.3% of physicians with a 10-year risk of CHD ≥10% were using aspirin. Conclusions The results show suboptimal awareness in physicians of their own cardiovascular risks, and low use of prophylactic agents. Improvement of physicians' risk factors in will improve their ability to act as role models in the promotion of primary and secondary prevention initiatives. PMID:27325952

  3. The care of Filipino juvenile offenders in residential facilities evaluated using the risk-need-responsivity model.

    PubMed

    Spruit, Anouk; Wissink, Inge B; Stams, Geert Jan J M

    2016-01-01

    According to the risk-need-responsivity model of offender, assessment and rehabilitation treatment should target specific factors that are related to re-offending. This study evaluates the residential care of Filipino juvenile offenders using the risk-need-responsivity model. Risk analyses and criminogenic needs assessments (parenting style, aggression, relationships with peers, empathy, and moral reasoning) have been conducted using data of 55 juvenile offenders in four residential facilities. The psychological care has been assessed using a checklist. Statistical analyses showed that juvenile offenders had a high risk of re-offending, high aggression, difficulties in making pro-social friends, and a delayed socio-moral development. The psychological programs in the residential facilities were evaluated to be poor. The availability of the psychological care in the facilities fitted poorly with the characteristics of the juvenile offenders and did not comply with the risk-need-responsivity model. Implications for research and practice are discussed. PMID:27137741

  4. A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henderson, Edward M.; Maggio, Gaspare; Elrada, Hassan A.; Yazdpour, Sabrina J.

    2003-01-01

    The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.

  5. Evaluation of a Sexual Assault Risk Reduction and Self-Defense Program: A Prospective Analysis of a Revised Protocol

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orchowski, Lindsay M.; Gidycz, Christine A.; Raffle, Holly

    2008-01-01

    The current study extends the development and evaluation of an existing and previously evaluated sexual assault risk reduction program with a self-defense component for college women (N = 300). The program protocol was revised to address psychological barriers to responding assertively to risky dating situations, and a placebo-control group was…

  6. Fax-In Forms as a Technology for Evaluating Community Projects: An Example of HIV Risk Reduction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huba, G. J.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    A new technology is described that permits virtually instantaneous tracking and evaluation of community-based projects. Faxes of coded forms are automatically stored in a database for up-to-date summaries and feedback for efficient outreach and program improvement. Evaluation of a human immunovirus risk reduction program is described. (SLD)

  7. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Wistar Audiogenic Rat (WAR) Strain

    PubMed Central

    Fazan, Rubens; Silva, Carlos Alberto A.; Oliveira, José Antônio Cortes; Salgado, Helio Cesar; Montano, Nicola; Garcia-Cairasco, Norberto

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Risk factors for life-threatening cardiovascular events were evaluated in an experimental model of epilepsy, the Wistar Audiogenic Rat (WAR) strain. Methods We used long-term ECG recordings in conscious, one year old, WAR and Wistar control counterparts to evaluate spontaneous arrhythmias and heart rate variability, a tool to assess autonomic cardiac control. Ventricular function was also evaluated using the pressure-volume conductance system in anesthetized rats. Results Basal RR interval (RRi) was similar between WAR and Wistar rats (188±5 vs 199±6 ms). RRi variability strongly suggests that WAR present an autonomic imbalance with sympathetic overactivity, which is an isolated risk factor for cardiovascular events. Anesthetized WAR showed lower arterial pressure (92±3 vs 115±5 mmHg) and exhibited indices of systolic dysfunction, such as higher ventricle end-diastolic pressure (9.2±0.6 vs 5.6±1 mmHg) and volume (137±9 vs 68±9 μL) as well as lower rate of increase in ventricular pressure (5266±602 vs 7320±538 mmHg.s-1). Indices of diastolic cardiac function, such as lower rate of decrease in ventricular pressure (-5014±780 vs -7766±998 mmHg.s-1) and a higher slope of the linear relationship between end-diastolic pressure and volume (0.078±0.011 vs 0.036±0.011 mmHg.μL), were also found in WAR as compared to Wistar control rats. Moreover, Wistar rats had 3 to 6 ventricular ectopic beats, whereas WAR showed 15 to 30 ectopic beats out of the 20,000 beats analyzed in each rat. Conclusions The autonomic imbalance observed previously at younger age is also present in aged WAR and, additionally, a cardiac dysfunction was also observed in the rats. These findings make this experimental model of epilepsy a valuable tool to study risk factors for cardiovascular events in epilepsy. PMID:26029918

  8. The spectral analysis of photoplethysmography to evaluate an independent cardiovascular risk factor

    PubMed Central

    Gandhi, Pratiksha G; Rao, Gundu HR

    2014-01-01

    Background In this study, we evaluate homeostatic markers correlated to autonomic nervous and endothelial functions in a population of coronary artery disease (CAD) patients versus a control group. Since CAD is the highest risk marker for sudden cardiac death, the study objective is to determine whether an independent cardiovascular risk score based on these markers can be used alongside known conventional cardiovascular risk markers to strengthen the understanding of a patient’s vascular state. Materials and methods Sixty-five subjects (13 women) with a mean age of 62.9 years (range 40–80 years) who were diagnosed with CAD using coronary angiography (group 1) and seventy-two subjects (29 women) with a mean age of 45.1 years (range 18–85 years) who claimed they were healthy (group 2) were included in the study. These subjects underwent examination with the TM-Oxi and SudoPath systems at IPC Heart Care Centers in Mumbai, India. The TM-Oxi system takes measurements from a blood pressure device and a pulse oximeter. The SudoPath measures galvanic skin response to assess the sudomotor pathway function. Spectral analysis of the photoplethysmograph (PTG) waveform and electrochemical galvanic skin response allow the TM-Oxi and SudoPath systems to calculate several homeostatic markers, such as the PTG index (PTGi), PTG very low frequency index (PTGVLFi), and PTG ratio (PTGr). The focus of this study was to evaluate these markers (PTGi, PTGVLFi, and PTGr) in CAD patients against a control group, and to calculate an independent cardiovascular risk factor score: the PTG cardiovascular disease risk score (PTG CVD), calculated solely from these markers. We compared PTGi, PTGVLFi, PTGr, and PTG CVD scores between the CAD patient group and the healthy control group. Statistical analyses were performed using receiver operating characteristic curves to determine the specificity and sensitivity of the markers to detect CAD at optimal cutoff values for PTGi, PTGVLFi, PTGr, and

  9. Tryon Trekkers: An Evaluation of a STEM Based Afterschool Program for At-Risk Youth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eckels Anderson, Chessa

    This study contributed to the body of research that supports a holistic model of afterschool learning through the design of an afterschool intervention that benefits elementary school students of low socioeconomic status. This qualitative study evaluated a science focused afterschool curriculum that was designed using principles from Risk and Resiliency Theory, academic motivation theories, science core ideas from the Next Generation Science Standards, and used environmental education philosophy. The research question of this study is: how does an outdoor and STEM based afterschool program impact at-risk students' self-efficacy, belonging and engagement and ability to apply conceptual knowledge of environmental science topics? The study collected information about the participants' affective experiences during the intervention using structured and ethnographic observations and semi-structured interviews. Observations and interviews were coded and analyzed to find patterns in participants' responses. Three participant profiles were developed using the structured observations and ethnographic observations to provide an in depth understanding of the participant experience. The study also assessed the participants' abilities to apply conceptual understanding of the program's science topics by integrating an application of conceptual knowledge task into the curriculum. This task in the form of a participant project was assessed using an adapted version of the Portland Metro STEM Partnership's Application of Conceptual Knowledge Rubric. Results in the study showed that participants demonstrated self-efficacy, a sense of belonging and engagement during the program. Over half of the participants in the study demonstrated a proficient understanding of program concepts. Overall, this holistic afterschool program demonstrated that specific instructional practices and a multi-modal science curriculum helped to support the social and emotional needs of at-risk children.

  10. Evaluation of the colorectal cancer risk conferred by rare UNC5C alleles

    PubMed Central

    Küry, Sébastien; Garrec, Céline; Airaud, Fabrice; Breheret, Flora; Guibert, Virginie; Frenard, Cécile; Jiao, Shuo; Bonneau, Dominique; Berthet, Pascaline; Bossard, Céline; Ingster, Olivier; Cauchin, Estelle; Bezieau, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the risk associated with variants of the UNC5C gene recently suspected to predispose to familial colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: We screened patients with familial CRC forms as well as patients with sporadic CRCs. In a first time, we analyzed exon 11 of the UNC5C gene in 120 unrelated patients with suspected hereditary CRC, 58 patients with suspected Lynch-associated cancer or polyposis, and 132 index cases of Lynch syndrome families with a characterized mutation in a DNA mismatch repair (MMR). Next, 1023 patients with sporadic CRC and 1121 healthy individuals were screened for the variants identified in patients with familial cancer. RESULTS: Of 120 patients with familial CRC of unknown etiology, one carried the previously reported mis-sense mutation p.Arg603Cys (R603C) and another exhibited the unreported variant of unknown significance p.Thr617Ile (T617I). The p.Ala628Lys (A628K) mutation previously described as the main UNC5C risk variant for familial CRC was not detected in any cases of familial CRC of unknown etiology, but was present in a patient with familial gastric cancer and in two Lynch syndrome patients in co-occurrence with MMR mutations. A statistically non-significant increase in cancer risk was identified in familial CRC and/or other Lynch-associated cancers (1/178 patients vs 2/1121 healthy controls, OR = 3.2, 95%CI: 0.29-35.05, P = 0.348) and in sporadic CRCs (4/1023 patients vs 2/1121 healthy controls, OR = 2.2, 95%CI: 0.40-12.02, P = 0.364). CONCLUSION: We confirm that UNC5C mutations are very rare in familial and sporadic CRCs, but further investigations are needed to justify routine UNC5C testing for diagnostic purposes. PMID:24415873

  11. A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate

  12. Evaluation of Berlin Questionnaire Validity for Sleep Apnea Risk in Sleep Clinic Populations

    PubMed Central

    Khaledi-Paveh, Behnam; Khazaie, Habibolah; Nasouri, Marzie; Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul; Tahmasian, Masoud

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: The Berlin questionnaire (BQ) is a common tool to screen for Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) in the general population, but its application in the clinical sleep setting is still challenging. The aim of this study was to determine the specificity and sensitivity of the BQ compared to the apnea-hypopnea index obtained from polysomnography recordings obtained from a sleep clinic in Iran. Methods: We recruited 100 patients who were referred to the Sleep Disorders Research Center of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences for the evaluation of suspected sleep-disorder breathing difficulties. Patients completed a Persian version of BQ and underwent one night of PSG. For each patient, Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI) was calculated to assess the diagnosis and severity of OSA. Severity of OSA was categorized as mild when AHI was between 5 and 15, moderate when it was between 15 and 30, and severe when it was more than 30. Results: BQ results categorized 65% of our patients as high risk and 35% as low risk for OSA. The sensitivity and the specificity of BQ for OSA diagnosis with AHI>5 were 77.3% and 23.1%, respectively. Positive predictive value was 68.0% and negative predictive value was 22.0%. Moreover, the area under curve was 0.53 (95% CI: 0.49 – 0.67, P=0.38). Discussion: Our findings suggested that BQ, despite its advantages in the general population, is not a precise tool to determine the risk of sleep apnea in the clinical setting, particularly in the sleep clinic population. PMID:27303598

  13. Evaluation of Airway Reactivity and Immune Characteristics as Risk Factors for Wheezing Early in Life

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Weiguo; Barbé-Tuana, Florencia M.; Llapur, Conrado J.; Jones, Marcus H.; Tiller, Christina; Kimmel, Risa; Kisling, Jeffrey; Nguyen, Evelyn T.; Nguyen, James; Yu, Zhangsheng; Kaplan, Mark H.; Tepper, Robert S.

    2010-01-01

    Background Childhood asthma is most often characterized by recurrent wheezing, airway hyper-reactivity, and atopy; however, our understanding of these relationships from early in life remains unclear. Respiratory illnesses and atopic sensitization early in life may produce an interaction between innate and acquired immune responses leading to airway inflammation and heightened airway reactivity. Objective We hypothesized that pre-morbid airway reactivity and immunologic characteristics of infants without prior episodes of wheezing would be associated with subsequent wheezing during 1-year follow-up. Methods 116 infants with chronic dermatitis were enrolled prior to episodes of wheezing. Airway reactivity, allergen-specific IgE, cytokine production by stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), and percentages of dendritic cells were measured upon entry and airway reactivity was reassessed at 1-year follow-up. Linear regression models were used to evaluate predictor’s effect on continuous outcomes. Results milk and/or egg sensitization was associated with heightened airway reactivity prior to wheezing and after the onset of wheezing; however, these factors were not associated with an increased risk of wheezing. There was an interaction between initial airway reactivity and wheezing as a determinant of airway reactivity at follow-up. In addition, cytokine production by stimulated PBMCs was a risk factor for wheezing, while increased percentages of conventional dendritic cells were protective for wheezing. Conclusion Our data in a selected cohort of infants support a model with multiple risk factors for subsequent wheezing that are independent of initial airway reactivity; however, the etiologic factors that produce wheezing very early in life may contribute to heightened airway reactivity. PMID:20816184

  14. Performance and economic risk evaluation of dispersed solar thermal power systems by Monte Carlo simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manvi, R.; Fujita, T.

    1978-01-01

    A preliminary comparative evaluation of dispersed solar thermal power plants utilizing advanced technologies available in 1985-2000 time frame is under way at JPL. The solar power plants of 50 KWe to 10 MWe size are equipped with two axis tracking parabolic dish concentrator systems operating at temperatures in excess of 1000 F. The energy conversion schemes under consideration include advanced steam, open and closed cycle gas turbines, stirling, and combined cycle. The energy storage systems include advanced batteries, liquid metal, and chemical. This paper outlines a simple methodology for a probabilistic assessment of such systems. Sources of uncertainty in the development of advanced systems are identified, and a computer Monte Carlo simulation is exercised to permit an analysis of the tradeoffs of the risk of failure versus the potential for large gains. Frequency distribution of energy cost for several alternatives are presented.

  15. Remote Sensing and Modeling of Landslides: Detection, Monitoring and Risk Evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Fukuoka, Hiroshi

    2012-01-01

    Landslides are one of the most pervasive hazards in the world, resulting in more fatalities and economic damage than is generally recognized_ Occurring over an extensive range of lithologies, morphologies, hydrologies, and climates, mass movements can be triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall, seismicity, freeze/thaw processes, and antbropogertic activities, among other factors. The location, size, and timing of these processes are characteristically difficult to predict and assess because of their localized spatial scales, distribution, and complex interactions between rainfall infiltration, hydromechanical properties of the soil, and the underlying surface composition. However, the increased availability, accessibility, and resolution of remote sensing data offer a new opportunity to explore issues of landslide susceptibility, hazard, and risk over a variety of spatial scales. This special issue presents a series of papers that investigate the sources, behavior, and impacts of different mass movement types using a diverse set of data sources and evaluation methodologies.

  16. Evaluation of the "Respect Not Risk" firearm safety lesson for 3rd-graders.

    PubMed

    Liller, Karen D; Perrin, Karen; Nearns, Jodi; Pesce, Karen; Crane, Nancy B; Gonzalez, Robin R

    2003-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the MORE HEALTH "Respect Not Risk" Firearm Safety Lesson for 3rd-graders in Pinellas County, Florida. Six schools representative of various socioeconomic levels were selected as the test sites. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected. A total of 433 matched pretests/posttests were used to determine the effectiveness of the class in increasing student knowledge about firearm safety. The results revealed a significant increase in the mean scores on the posttest compared with the pretest. Qualitative findings showed the lesson was positively received by both students and teachers, and 65% of responding students reported discussing the lesson with family members. School nurses are encouraged to take a leading role in promoting firearm injury prevention to students. PMID:14622039

  17. Toward a comprehensive and realistic risk evaluation of engineered nanomaterials in the urban water system

    PubMed Central

    Duester, Lars; Burkhardt, Michael; Gutleb, Arno C.; Kaegi, Ralf; Macken, Ailbhe; Meermann, Björn; von der Kammer, Frank

    2014-01-01

    The European COoperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES1205 on the transfer of Engineered Nano materials from wastewater Treatment and stormwatEr to Rivers (ENTER) aims to create and to maintain a trans European network among scientists. This perspective article delivers a brief overview on the status quo at the beginning of the project by addressing the following aspects on engineered nano materials (ENMs) in the urban systems: (1) ENMs that need to be considered on a European level; (2) uncertainties on production-volume estimations; (3) fate of selected ENMs during waste water transport and treatment; (4) analytical strategies for ENM analysis; (5) ecotoxicity of ENMs, and (6) future needs. These six step stones deliver the derivation of the position of the ES1205 network at the beginning of the projects runtime, by defining six fundamental aspects that should be considered in future discussions on risk evaluation of ENMs in urban water systems. PMID:25003102

  18. [Evaluation of tuberculosis detection indicators in a region with high risk of transmission in Peru].

    PubMed

    Roque-Henríquez, Joel; Catacora-López, Fresia; Hilasaca-Yungas, Gladys; Romaní-Romaní, Franco

    2015-01-01

    An operational study was conducted to evaluate the tuberculosis detection indicators established in the Technical Standard for Comprehensive Care of Persons Affected by Tuberculosis. Three networks of first level of care facilities with very high risk of tuberculosis transmission from the Tacna region were selected. Using the registry of respiratory symptomatic patients, we analyzed 14,595 respiratory symptomatic subjects (RSS), of which we examined (ExRSS) 14,486 (99.3%). Of the total of ExRSS, 1.5% were BK (+).The average direct smears per RSS was 2.0 and search intensity (ratio between RSS and number of health care visits in more than 15 years) was 2.8%. Males were more likely to have at least one positive smear compared to women, OR 2.0 (95% CI: 1.5 to 2.6). It is concluded that the diagnostic performance of direct smears in respiratory symptomatic subjects is low. PMID:26580933

  19. Evaluating the technical feasibility of aflatoxin risk reduction strategies in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Felicia; Khlangwiset, Pornsri

    2010-01-01

    Public health interventions must be readily accepted by their target populations to have any meaningful impact, and must have financial and infrastructural support to be feasible in the parts of the world where they are most needed. At the same time, these interventions must be assessed for potential unintended consequences, either to the environment or to human health. In this paper, we evaluate the technical feasibility of interventions to control aflatoxin risk, to be potentially deployed in parts of Africa where aflatoxin exposure poses a significant public health concern. We have applied a conceptual framework for feasibility to four interventions, one associated with each of four different stages of aflatoxin risk: biocontrol (pre-harvest), a post-harvest intervention package (post-harvest), NovaSil clay (dietary), and hepatitis B vaccination (clinical). For each intervention, we have assessed the following four components of technical feasibility: 1) characteristics of the basic intervention, 2) characteristics of delivery, 3) requirements on government capacity, and 4) usage characteristics. We propose ways in which feasibility of each intervention is currently high or low from the perspective of adoption in Africa, how public education is crucial for each of these interventions to succeed, and how to align economic incentives to make the interventions more suitable for less developed countries. PMID:20455160

  20. Evaluation of injection well risk management potential in the Williston Basin

    SciTech Connect

    1989-09-01

    The UIC regulations promulgated by the EPA under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) provide the EPA, or an EPA approved state agency, with authority to regulate subsurface injection of fluids to protect USDWs. Oil and gas producing industry interests are concerned primarily with Class 2 wells whose uses as defined by UIC regulations are: disposal of fluids brought to the surface and liquids generated in connection with oil and gas production (SWD); injection of fluids for enhanced oil recovery (EOR); and storage of liquid hydrocarbons. The Williston Basin was chosen for the pilot study of the feasibility of using the risk approach in managing Class 2 injection operations for the following reasons: it is one of the nine geologic basins which was classified as having a significant potential for external casing corrosion, which permitted an evaluation of the effectiveness of the injection well corrosion control measures used by industry; there are 731 active, 22 shut in and 203 temporarily abandoned SWD and water injection wells in the basin; and the basin covers three states. The broad objective of the Williston Basin study is to define requirements and to investigate the feasibility of incorporating risk management into administration of the UIC program. The study does not address the reporting aspects of UIC regulatory and compliance activities but the data base does contain essentially all the information required to develop the reports needed to monitor those activities. 16 refs., 10 figs., 11 tabs.

  1. Evaluation of core cultivation practices to reduce ecological risk of pesticides in runoff from Agrostis palustris.

    PubMed

    Rice, Pamela J; Horgan, Brian P; Rittenhouse, Jennifer L

    2010-06-01

    Pesticides associated with the turfgrass industry have been detected in storm runoff and surface waters of urban watersheds, invoking concern of their potential environmental effects and a desire to reduce their transport to nontarget locations. Quantities of chlorpyrifos, dicamba, dimethylamine salt of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D), flutolanil, and mecoprop-p (MCPP) transported in runoff from bentgrass (Agrostis palustris) fairway turf managed with solid tine (ST) or hollow tine (HT) core cultivation were compared to determine which cultivation practice is more efficient at mitigating environmental risk. Plots receiving HT core cultivation showed a 10 and 55% reduction in runoff volume and a 15 to 57% reduction in pesticide transport with runoff at 63 d and 2 d following core cultivation. Estimated environmental concentrations of the pesticides in a surface water receiving runoff from turf managed with ST core cultivation exceeded the median lethal concentration (LC50) or median effective concentration (EC50) of nine aquatic organisms evaluated. Replacing ST core cultivation with HT core cultivation reduced surface water concentrations of the pesticides to levels below the LC50 and EC50 for most these aquatic organisms, lessening risk associated with pesticides in runoff from the fairway turf. Results of the present research provide quantitative information that will allow for informed decisions on cultural practices that can maximize pesticide retention at the site of application, improving pest control in turf while minimizing environmental contamination and adverse effects associated with the off-site transport of pesticides. PMID:20821563

  2. Risk evaluation for sludge-borne elements to wildlife food chains

    SciTech Connect

    Woodyard, D.K.

    1986-01-01

    Studies were conducted to evaluate the human and wildlife food chain risks from exposure to potentially toxic metals associated with recycling sludges to forest lands. The fate of 5 selected metals, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn, were determined in both field and laboratory food chains exposed to sludge-borne metals. Knowledge gained on the fate of the selected metals and existing knowledge of their toxicological properties were used to complete a risk assessment. Some metals, primarily Cd and Cr, did accumulate in wildlife forages during the first year after application but returned to background concentrations by the second growing season. Maximum metal concentrations were magnitudes less than doses suspected to elicit chronic toxicities in wildlife. Tissues collected from herbivorous and omnivorous small mammals showed no evidence of metal accumulation. Laboratory experiments support this observation. The soil macroinvertebrate-vertebrate insectivore food chain did appear as a potential pathway for metals to accumulate, as woodcock (Philohela minor) fed sludge-contaminated earthworms concentrated Cd in kidney and liver tissues. However, muscle tissues collected from the woodcock did not contain significant concentrations of the selected metals.

  3. Adopting nested case–control quota sampling designs for the evaluation of risk markers

    PubMed Central

    Cai, Tianxi; Pepe, Margaret S.

    2013-01-01

    Two-phase study methods, in which more detailed or more expensive exposure information is only collected on a sample of individuals with events and a small proportion of other individuals, are expected to play a critical role in biomarker validation research. One major limitation of standard two-phase designs is that they are most conveniently employed with study cohorts in which information on longitudinal follow-up and other potential matching variables is electronically recorded. However for many practical situations, at the sampling stage such information may not be readily available for every potential candidates. Study eligibility needs to be verified by reviewing information from medical charts one by one. In this manuscript, we study in depth a novel study design commonly undertaken in practice that involves sampling until quotas of eligible cases and controls are identified. We propose semiparametric methods to calculate risk distributions and a wide variety of prediction indices when outcomes are censored failure times and data are collected under the quota sampling design. Consistency and asymptotic normality of our estimators are established using empirical process theory. Simulation results indicate that the proposed procedures perform well in finite samples. Application is made to the evaluation of a new risk model for predicting the onset of cardiovascular disease. PMID:23807695

  4. Dissolved Concentrations, Sources, and Risk Evaluation of Selected Metals in Surface Water from Mangla Lake, Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Saleem, Muhammad; Iqbal, Javed; Shah, Munir H.

    2014-01-01

    The present study is carried out for the assessment of water quality parameters and selected metals levels in surface water from Mangla Lake, Pakistan. The metal levels (Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn) were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average levels of Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb were higher than the allowable concentrations set by national and international agencies. Principal component analysis indicated significant anthropogenic contributions of Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb in the water reservoir. Noncarcinogenic risk assessment was then evaluated using Hazard Quotient (HQing/derm) and Hazard Index (HIing/derm) following USEPA methodology. For adults and children, Cd, Co, Cr, and Pb (HQing > 1) emerged as the most important pollutants leading to noncarcinogenic concerns via ingestion route, whereas there was no risk via dermal contact of surface water. This study helps in establishing pollutant loading reduction goal and the total maximum daily loads, and consequently contributes to preserve public health and develop water conservation strategy. PMID:24744690

  5. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  6. Risk evaluation for the development of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: development and validation of risk-scoring schemes.

    PubMed

    Lee, Chien-Hung; Peng, Chiung-Yu; Li, Ruei-Nian; Chen, Yu-Chieh; Tsai, Hsiu-Ting; Hung, Yu-Hsiu; Chan, Te-Fu; Huang, Hsiao-Ling; Lai, Tai-Cheng; Wu, Ming-Tsang

    2015-01-15

    Cervical cancer screening guidelines do not comprehensively define what constitutes high risk. This study developed and validated simple risk-scoring schemes to improve Papanicolaou smear screening for women at high risk. Four cumulative risk score (CRS) schemes were derived respectively for the development of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 (CIN1) and grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) using community-based case-control data (n = 1523). By calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AU-ROC) curve, these schemes were validated in a Papanicolaou smear follow-up cohort (n = 967) and a hospital-based cytology screening population (n = 217). A high DNA load of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) was the main predictor for CIN1 and CIN2+, although age, married status combined with the number of sexual partners, active and passive smoking and age at sexual debut also affected associated lesions. In the training set, only the HPV-testing-contained CIN2+ CRS scheme presented an excellent discrimination for identifying CIN2+ (AU-ROC = 0.866). Using a CRS cutoff value of 4 to identify CIN2+, the sensitivity and specificity of predicting CIN2+ for the 3- and 5-year follow-ups were 100% and 90.8%, and 83.3% and 90.4%, respectively, in the validation cohort. In the hospital-based validation population, the CRS scheme showed comparable discrimination for CIN2+ detection (sensitivity 88.2% and specificity 84.6%). Women with CRS ≥ 4 had a 5.4% and 9.1% of 3- and 5-year cumulative incidence, respectively, and a 40.5-fold hazard ratio of developing CIN2+. In conclusion, combined with HR-HPV testing and verified risk factors, a simple CRS scheme could effectively improve the implementation of CIN2+ screening. PMID:24841989

  7. Hypothesis-based weight-of-evidence evaluation and risk assessment for naphthalene carcinogenesis

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, Lisa A.; Nascarella, Marc A.; Kerper, Laura E.; Rhomberg, Lorenz R.

    2016-01-01

    Inhalation of naphthalene causes olfactory epithelial nasal tumors in rats (but not in mice) and benign lung adenomas in mice (but not in rats). The limited available human data have not identified an association between naphthalene exposure and increased respiratory cancer risk. Assessing naphthalene's carcinogenicity in humans, therefore, depends entirely on experimental evidence from rodents. We evaluated the respiratory carcinogenicity of naphthalene in rodents, and its potential relevance to humans, using our Hypothesis-Based Weight-of-Evidence (HBWoE) approach. We systematically and comparatively reviewed data relevant to key elements in the hypothesized modes of action (MoA) to determine which is best supported by the available data, allowing all of the data from each realm of investigation to inform interpretation of one another. Our analysis supports a mechanism that involves initial metabolism of naphthalene to the epoxide, followed by GSH depletion, cytotoxicity, chronic inflammation, regenerative hyperplasia, and tumor formation, with possible weak genotoxicity from downstream metabolites occurring only at high cytotoxic doses, strongly supporting a non-mutagenic threshold MoA in the rat nose. We also conducted a dose–response analysis, based on the likely MoA, which suggests that the rat nasal MoA is not relevant in human respiratory tissues at typical environmental exposures. Our analysis illustrates how a thorough WoE evaluation can be used to support a MoA, even when a mechanism of action cannot be fully elucidated. A non-mutagenic threshold MoA for naphthalene-induced rat nasal tumors should be considered as a basis to determine human relevance and to guide regulatory and risk-management decisions. PMID:26202831

  8. Illustrative case using the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: prioritization for evaluation of chemicals found in drinking water

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Douglas C.; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I.; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P.; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework’s roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization. PMID:26451723

  9. Illustrative case using the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: prioritization for evaluation of chemicals found in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Douglas C; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R

    2016-01-01

    The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework's roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization. PMID:26451723

  10. Risk profile and outcomes of aortic valve replacement in octogenarians

    PubMed Central

    Kesavan, Sujatha; Iqbal, Aamer; Khan, Yusra; Hutter, Jonathan; Pike, Katie; Rogers, Chris; Turner, Mark; Townsend, Mandie; Baumbach, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the patient characteristics, relationship between the Logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and the observed outcomes in octogenarians who underwent surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR). METHODS: Two hundred and seventy three octogenarians underwent AVR between 1996 and 2008 at Bristol Royal Infirmary. Demographics, acute outcomes, length of hospital stay and mortality were obtained. The LES was calculated to characterize the predicted operative risk. Two groups were defined: LES ≥ 15 (n = 80) and LES < 15 (n = 193). RESULTS: In patients with LES ≥ 15, 30 d mortality was 14% (95% CI: 7%-23%) compared with 4% (95% CI: 2%-8%) in the LES < 15 group (P < 0.007). Despite the increase in number of operations from 1996 to 2008, the average LES did not change. Only 5% of patients had prior bypass surgery. The LES identified a low risk quartile of patients with a very low mortality (4%, n = 8, P < 0.007) at 30 d. The overall surgical results for octogenarians were excellent. The low risk group had an excellent outcome and the high risk group had a poor outcome after surgical AVR. CONCLUSION: It may be better treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. PMID:22125671

  11. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  12. Research on Slope Disaster Risk Evaluation Considering the Hydrologic Processes throughout the Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakatsugawa, M.; Usutani, T.

    2014-12-01

    This study addresses risk evaluation for slope disasters based on watershed-wide estimations of soil moisture resulting from long-term hydrologic processes. Slope disasters have recently occurred throughout Japan due to heavy rainfall and rapid snowmelt. Climate change is expected to exacerbate such disasters in snowy regions, due to global warming. The quantitative evaluation of landslide risk such as that which has occurred at Nakayama Pass in Sapporo, Northern Japan, during the snowmelt season has remained an issue. A method for determining the soil moisture at potential slope disaster sites was proposed and applied to the Nakayama Pass disaster. The investigation site is on Route 230 connecting Sapporo, the capital of Hokkaido Prefecture, to Southern Hokkaido. This site is in the Hoheikyo Dam watershed and thus is influenced by its hydrologic characteristics. We propose a method to quantitatively estimate soil moisture, which is an important factor in slope disasters, by using the storage for each mesh as estimated in the distributed hydrologic model of the watershed. In this hydrologic model, snowmelt is estimated on the basis of the heat balance between the snowpack layer and the atmosphere. The storage in each 1-km by 1-km mesh is estimated as the water level of the tank model when rainfall and snowmelt are provided. Then, the total outflow from the watershed is estimated by synthesizing the outflow for each mesh using a channel routing method based on kinematic waves. The validity of the estimated storage is indirectly confirmed by the reproducibility of total outflow from the dam catchment that includes the disaster point. Storage amount at the disaster site was estimated by using the proposed method. It was found that the landslides of 2012 and 2000 occurred at the condition of maximum storage resulting from heavy rainfall, combined with snowmelt. Thus, this study suggested that the storage amount which consists of hydrologic cycle in a catchment area

  13. Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability criteria for the evaluation of Human Health Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodak, C. M.; Silliman, S. E.; Bolster, D.

    2011-12-01

    Understanding the impact of water quality on the health of a general population is challenging due high degrees of uncertainty and variability in hydrological, toxicological and human aspects of the system. Assessment of the impact of changes in water quality of a public water supply is critical to management of that water supply. We propose the use of three different system evaluation criteria: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV) as a tool for assessing the impact of uncertainty in the arrival of contaminant mass through time with respect to human health risks on a variable population. These criteria were first introduced to the water resources community by Hashimoto et al (1982). Most simply one can understand these criteria as the following: Reliability is the likelihood of the system being in a state of success; Resilience is the probability that the system will return to a state of success at t+1 if it is in failure at time step t, and Vulnerability is the severity of failure, which here is defined as the maximum health risk. These concepts are applied to a theoretical example where the water quality at a water supply well varies over time: health impact is considered based on sliding, 30-year windows of exposure to water derived from the well. We apply the methodology, in terms of uncertainty in water quality deviations, to eight simulated breakthrough curves of a contaminant at the well: each curve represents equal mass of contaminant arriving at the well over a 70-year lifetime of the well, but different mass distributions over time. These curves are used to investigate the impact of uncertainty in the distribution through time of the contaminant mass at the well, as well as the initial arrival of the contaminant over the 70-year lifetime of the well. In addition to extending the health risk through time with uncertainty in mass distribution, we incorporate variability in the human population to examine the evolution of the three criteria within

  14. Two-scale evaluation of remediation technologies for a contaminated site by applying economic input-output life cycle assessment: risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO2 emission.

    PubMed

    Inoue, Yasushi; Katayama, Arata

    2011-09-15

    A two-scale evaluation concept of remediation technologies for a contaminated site was expanded by introducing life cycle costing (LCC) and economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA). The expanded evaluation index, the rescue number for soil (RN(SOIL)) with LCC and EIO-LCA, comprises two scales, such as risk-cost, risk-energy consumption or risk-CO(2) emission of a remediation. The effectiveness of RN(SOIL) with LCC and EIO-LCA was examined in a typical contamination and remediation scenario in which dieldrin contaminated an agricultural field. Remediation was simulated using four technologies: disposal, high temperature thermal desorption, biopile and landfarming. Energy consumption and CO(2) emission were determined from a life cycle inventory analysis using monetary-based intensity based on an input-output table. The values of RN(SOIL) based on risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO(2) emission were calculated, and then rankings of the candidates were compiled according to RN(SOIL) values. A comparison between three rankings showed the different ranking orders. The existence of differences in ranking order indicates that the scales would not have reciprocal compatibility for two-scale evaluation and that each scale should be used independently. The RN(SOIL) with LCA will be helpful in selecting a technology, provided an appropriate scale is determined. PMID:21741766

  15. Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) for Offshore Wind - Mock-Up of ERES, Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-11-01

    The Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) has been created to set priorities among the environmental risks from offshore wind development. This report follows the conceptual design for ERES and shows what the system would look like, using a web interface created as part of a Knowledge Management System (KMS) for offshore wind. The KMS, called Zephyrus, and ERES for offshore wind, will be populated and made operational in a later phase of the project.

  16. Preoperative evaluation of cardiac risk using dobutamine-thallium imaging in vascular surgery

    SciTech Connect

    Zellner, J.L.; Elliott, B.M.; Robison, J.G.; Hendrix, G.H.; Spicer, K.M. )

    1990-05-01

    Coronary artery disease is frequently present in patients undergoing evaluation for reconstructive peripheral vascular surgery. Dobutamine-thallium imaging has been shown to be a reliable and sensitive noninvasive method for the detection of significant coronary artery disease. Eighty-seven candidates for vascular reconstruction underwent dobutamine-thallium imaging. Forty-eight patients had an abnormal dobutamine-thallium scan. Twenty-two patients had infarct only, while 26 had reversible ischemia demonstrated on dobutamine-thallium imaging. Fourteen of 26 patients with reversible ischemia underwent cardiac catheterization and 11 showed significant coronary artery disease. Seven patients underwent preoperative coronary bypass grafting or angioplasty. There were no postoperative myocardial events in this group. Three patients were denied surgery on the basis of unreconstructible coronary artery disease, and one patient refused further intervention. Ten patients with reversible myocardial ischemia on dobutamine-thallium imaging underwent vascular surgical reconstruction without coronary revascularization and suffered a 40% incidence of postoperative myocardial ischemic events. Five patients were denied surgery because of presumed significant coronary artery disease on the basis of the dobutamine-thallium imaging and clinical evaluation alone. Thirty-nine patients with normal dobutamine-thallium scans underwent vascular reconstructive surgery with a 5% incidence of postoperative myocardial ischemia. Dobutamine-thallium imaging is a sensitive and reliable screening method which identifies those patients with coronary artery disease who are at high risk for perioperative myocardial ischemia following peripheral vascular surgery.

  17. Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella.

    PubMed

    Guentchev, Galina S; Rood, Richard B; Ammann, Caspar M; Barsugli, Joseph J; Ebi, Kristie; Berrocal, Veronica; O'Neill, Marie S; Gronlund, Carina J; Vigh, Jonathan L; Koziol, Ben; Cinquini, Luca

    2016-03-01

    Foodborne diseases have large economic and societal impacts worldwide. To evaluate how the risks of foodborne diseases might change in response to climate change, credible and usable climate information tailored to the specific application question is needed. Global Climate Model (GCM) data generally need to, both, be downscaled to the scales of the application to be usable, and represent, well, the key characteristics that inflict health impacts. This study presents an evaluation of temperature-based heat indices for the Washington D.C. area derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations for 1971-2000--a necessary step in establishing the credibility of these data. The indices approximate high weekly mean temperatures linked previously to occurrences of Salmonella infections. Due to bias-correction, included in the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM) and the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA) downscaling methods, the observed 30-year means of the heat indices were reproduced reasonably well. In April and May, however, some of the statistically downscaled data misrepresent the increase in the number of hot days towards the summer months. This study demonstrates the dependence of the outcomes to the selection of downscaled climate data and the potential for misinterpretation of future estimates of Salmonella infections. PMID:26938544

  18. Review of correlation methods for evaluating finite element simulations of impact injury risk.

    PubMed

    Wang, Qian; Gabler, Hampton C

    2008-01-01

    Finite element models have been used to understand human injury responses in various crash configurations. Most of the model validations were limited to qualitative descriptions. Quantitative analysis was needed for the validation of finite element models against experimental results. The purpose of this study is to compare the existing correlation techniques and to determine the best method to use for evaluating finite element simulations of impact injury risk in vehicle crashes. Five correlation methods in the literature were reviewed for systematic comparisons between simulations and tests. A full frontal impact test of a 1997 Geo Metro was simulated. The finite element model of a 1997 Geo Metro was obtained from NCAC finite element model archive. The acceleration and velocity responses of the vehicle seat were extracted from the simulation and compared to the test data. Evaluations of the validation methods were based on the analysis results compared to the suggested criteria. Performance of the different methods showed that the Comprehensive Error Factor method was the best overall correlation method, and therefore was recommended for assessing occupant injury potentials in vehicle accidents. PMID:19141927

  19. Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella

    PubMed Central

    Guentchev, Galina S.; Rood, Richard B.; Ammann, Caspar M.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Ebi, Kristie; Berrocal, Veronica; O’Neill, Marie S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Vigh, Jonathan L.; Koziol, Ben; Cinquini, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Foodborne diseases have large economic and societal impacts worldwide. To evaluate how the risks of foodborne diseases might change in response to climate change, credible and usable climate information tailored to the specific application question is needed. Global Climate Model (GCM) data generally need to, both, be downscaled to the scales of the application to be usable, and represent, well, the key characteristics that inflict health impacts. This study presents an evaluation of temperature-based heat indices for the Washington D.C. area derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations for 1971–2000—a necessary step in establishing the credibility of these data. The indices approximate high weekly mean temperatures linked previously to occurrences of Salmonella infections. Due to bias-correction, included in the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM) and the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA) downscaling methods, the observed 30-year means of the heat indices were reproduced reasonably well. In April and May, however, some of the statistically downscaled data misrepresent the increase in the number of hot days towards the summer months. This study demonstrates the dependence of the outcomes to the selection of downscaled climate data and the potential for misinterpretation of future estimates of Salmonella infections. PMID:26938544

  20. Environmental Risk Evaluation System – An Approach to Ranking Risk of Ocean Energy Development on Coastal and Estuarine Environments

    SciTech Connect

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2015-01-01

    Deployment and operation of ocean energy devices does not represent the first foray into industrialization of the oceans; shipping, nearshore development, waste disposal, subsea mining, oil and gas extraction, and large-scale commercial fishing all coexist in various states of equilibrium with the marine environment. In most cases these industries were developed without a clear understanding of the likely outcomes of large-scale development. In virtually every country where the harvest of ocean energy is emerging, regulators and stakeholders require that the industry examine potential effects of devices, minimize the footprint of effects, and provide management measures that either avoid the impacts or mitigate to further reduce the residual impacts. The ERES analysis is based on scenarios that are consistent with sequences of events that lead to adverse impacts, distinguishing between episodic, intermittent, and chronic risks. In the context of ocean energy development, an episodic scenario might involve the exceedingly rare but potentially devastating event of an oil spill from vessels caused by the presence of the device, while vulnerable receptors are present; understanding the risk of such a scenario involves determining the probability of the occurrence by examining factors such as the petroleum content of ocean energy devices, the vessel traffic volume and the proximity of shipping lanes to the ocean energy devices, the reliability of the control measures to avoid an episodic event, and the likely presence of seabirds, marine mammals, or fish that may be affected by oil. In contrast, chronic risk scenarios involve events or circumstances that are continuous, so that risk characterization involves assessing only the severity of the consequences. An example of a chronic risk scenario might be the toxicity to marine organisms due to low-level chemical releases from anti-biofouling paints and coatings that may be used on devices, and the effect that the level of

  1. Social appearance anxiety, perfectionism, and fear of negative evaluation: Distinct or shared risk factors for social anxiety and eating disorders?

    PubMed Central

    Levinson, Cheri A.; Rodebaugh, Thomas L.; White, Emily K.; Menatti, Andrew; Weeks, Justin W.; Iacovino, Juliette M.; Warren, Cortney S.

    2013-01-01

    Social anxiety and eating disorders are highly comorbid. Social appearance anxiety (i.e., fear of negative evaluation of one's appearance), general fear of negative evaluation, and perfectionism have each been proposed as risk factors for both social anxiety disorder and the eating disorders. However, no research to date has examined all three factors simultaneously. Using structural equation modeling in two diverse samples (N = 236; N = 136) we tested a model in which each of these risk factors were uniquely associated with social anxiety and eating disorder symptoms. We found support for social appearance anxiety as a shared risk factor between social anxiety and eating disorder symptoms, whereas fear of negative evaluation was a risk factor only for social anxiety symptoms. Despite significant zero-order relationships, two facets of perfectionism (high standards and maladaptive perfectionism) did not emerge as a risk factor for either disorder when all constructs were considered. These results were maintained when gender, body mass index, trait negative affect, and depression were included in the model. It is possible that treating negative appearance evaluation fears may reduce both eating disorder and social anxiety symptoms. PMID:23583741

  2. Social appearance anxiety, perfectionism, and fear of negative evaluation: distinct or shared risk factors for social anxiety and eating disorders?

    PubMed

    Levinson, Cheri A; Rodebaugh, Thomas L; White, Emily K; Menatti, Andrew R; Weeks, Justin W; Iacovino, Juliette M; Warren, Cortney S

    2013-08-01

    Social anxiety and eating disorders are highly comorbid. Social appearance anxiety (i.e., fear of negative evaluation of one's appearance), general fear of negative evaluation, and perfectionism have each been proposed as risk factors for both social anxiety disorder and the eating disorders. However, no research to date has examined all three factors simultaneously. Using structural equation modeling in two diverse samples (N=236; N=136) we tested a model in which each of these risk factors were uniquely associated with social anxiety and eating disorder symptoms. We found support for social appearance anxiety as a shared risk factor between social anxiety and eating disorder symptoms, whereas fear of negative evaluation was a risk factor only for social anxiety symptoms. Despite significant zero-order relationships, two facets of perfectionism (high standards and maladaptive perfectionism) did not emerge as a risk factor for either disorder when all constructs were considered. These results were maintained when gender, body mass index, trait negative affect, and depression were included in the model. It is possible that treating negative appearance evaluation fears may reduce both eating disorder and social anxiety symptoms. PMID:23583741

  3. Long-term risk in a recently active volcanic system: Evaluation of doses and indoor radiological risk in the quaternary Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capaccioni, B.; Cinelli, G.; Mostacci, D.; Tositti, L.

    2012-12-01

    Volcanic rocks in the Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy) contain high concentrations of 238U, 232Th and 40K due to subduction-related metasomatic enrichment of incompatible elements in the mantle source coupled with magma differentiation within the upper crust. Due to their favorable mechanical properties they have been extensively used for construction since the Etruscan age. In the old buildings of the Bolsena village, one of the most populated ancient village in the area, the major source of indoor radioactivity is 222Rn, a radioactive noble gas descendant of 238U. Direct 222Rn indoor measurements have detected extremely high values in the old center due to the combined effect of building materials, radon fluxes from the volcanic basement and low air exchange rates. In these cases the evaluated risk of developing lung cancer within a 75 year lifetime reaches up to 40% for ever smokers. Simulations of "standard rooms" built with different tuffs and lavas collected from the Vulsini Volcanic District have also provided estimations of the effective doses and lifetime risk for radiogenic cancer. Other than by the method adopted for calculation, the total evaluated risk for each volcanic rock depends on different parameters, such as: radionuclide content, radon emanation power, occupancy factor and air exchange rate. Occupancy factor and air exchange rate appear as the only controlling parameters able to mitigate the indoor radiological risk.

  4. An Interactive Website to Reduce Sexual Risk Behavior: Process Evaluation of TeensTalkHealth

    PubMed Central

    Sieving, Renee E; Terveen, Loren G; Rosser, BR Simon; Kodet, Amy J; Rothberg, Vienna D

    2015-01-01

    Background Different theoretical frameworks support the use of interactive websites to promote sexual health. Although several Web-based interventions have been developed to address sexual risk taking among young people, no evaluated interventions have attempted to foster behavior change through moderated interaction among a virtual network of adolescents (who remain anonymous to one another) and health professionals. Objective The objective was to conduct a summative process evaluation of TeensTalkHealth, an interactive sexual health website designed to promote condom use and other healthy decision making in the context of romantic and sexual relationships. Methods Evaluation data were obtained from 147 adolescents who participated in a feasibility and acceptability study. Video vignettes, teen-friendly articles, and other content served as conversation catalysts between adolescents and health educators on message boards. Results Adolescents’ perceptions that the website encouraged condom use across a variety of relationship situations were very high. Almost 60% (54/92, 59%) of intervention participants completed two-thirds or more of requested tasks across the 4-month intervention. Adolescents reported high levels of comfort, perceived privacy, ease of website access and use, and perceived credibility of health educators. Potential strategies to enhance engagement and completion of intervention tasks during future implementations of TeensTalkHealth are discussed, including tailoring of content, periodic website chats with health educators and anonymous peers, and greater incorporation of features from popular social networking websites. Conclusions TeensTalkHealth is a feasible, acceptable, and promising approach to complement and enhance existing services for youth. PMID:26336157

  5. [Microbiologic/hygienic evaluation of the risk potential of bacteria from soil and water sources in combination with biotechnologic risks of soil restoration].

    PubMed

    Dott, W; Kämpfer, P

    1997-08-01

    Biological cleanup-processes removing contaminations from soil and ground-water can be carried out "ex-situ" or "in situ". The pollutants are mineralized (totally or partly) by microorganisms. The successful application of bioremediation techniques often leads to an increase of aerobic and facultatively anaerobic bacteria in soil and/or groundwater, a fact that triggered discussions about a potential biological risk originating from these microorganisms. In this study the identification results of 10,200 microorganisms isolated from 109 ground-water- and 152 soil-samples of different sites contaminated with mineral oil or chlorinated aromatics are evaluated with respect to a possible biological risks originating from these microorganisms. According to their biological risk potential, 19.2% (1958) of the isolated organisms can be grouped into risk-groups II, that means they they are able o cause human disease but it is unlikely that they are spread to the community and there is effective prophylaxis or treatment available. The majority of isolates (81.8%) are grouped into risk group I, meaning that it is very unlikely that they cause a human disease. All these microorganisms are either adsorbed to the soil-matrix or within a closed system of a water-treatment-plant, so that the risk of infection is very unlikely for healthy individuals (regarding possible pathways of infection). The risk potential in waste-water-treatment-plants is regarded to be significantly higher than in biological soil-cleanup processes, because of the specific origin of the bacteria and the possible formation of aerosols. PMID:9636987

  6. Breast and ovarian cancer risk evaluation in families with a disease-causing mutation in BRCA1/2.

    PubMed

    Beristain, Elena; Ibáñez, Berta; Vergara, Itziar; Martínez-Bouzas, Cristina; Guerra, Isabel; Tejada, Maria Isabel

    2010-06-01

    Germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 confer high risks of breast and ovarian cancer, and their identification allows genetic testing of at-risk relatives. However, estimates of these risks illustrate controversies, depending on the published series. The penetrance, the earlier onset of the disease and the effect of mutations on the risk of developing breast and ovarian cancer were evaluated in 344 females belonging to 34 families from the Basque Country in Spain, in which BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations were transmitted. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to derive cumulative probability curves for breast and ovarian cancer by mutation status, birth cohort and mutation position, and significance of the differences was assessed using the log-rank test. The estimated probability for breast cancer by age 70 is about 64% in BRCA1 and 69% in BRCA2, whereas the probability of developing ovarian cancer is about 37% and 25% for BRCA1 and BRCA2, respectively. There is a marginally significant higher risk of developing ovarian cancer in BRCA1 families than in BRCA2 families. The effect of birth cohort on breast cancer cumulative incidence presents an increased risk for females born after 1966 and a decreased risk for those born before 1940. There is no association between mutation position and breast cancer; however, ovarian cancer is associated to BRCA1, presenting exon 11 as an ovarian cluster. These results are important for the breast and ovarian cancer diagnosis and prevention in at-risk families. PMID:22460208

  7. Development and Evaluation of a Sensitive Mycotoxin Risk Assessment Model (MYCORAM)

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Hester-Mari; Lombard, Martani J.; Shephard, Gordon S.; Danster-Christians, Natasha; Gelderblom, Wentzel C.A.

    2014-01-01

    The differential risk of exposure to fumonisin (FB), deoxynivalenol (DON), and zearalenone (ZEA) mycotoxins to the South African population, residing in the nine Provinces was assessed during a cross-sectional grain consumer survey. The relative per capita maize intake (g/day) was stratified by gender, ethnicity, and Province and the probable daily intake (PDI) for each mycotoxin (ng/kg body weight/day) calculated utilizing SPECIAL and SUPER dry milled maize fractions representing different exposure scenarios. Men consumed on an average more maize (173 g/day) than women (142 g/day) whereas the black African ethnic group had the highest intake (279 g/day) followed by the Colored group (169 g/day) with the Asian/Indian and White groups consuming lower quantities of 101 and 80 g/day, respectively. The estimated mean PDIs for the various subgroups and Provinces, utilizing the different dry milled maize fractions, were below the provisional maximum tolerable daily intake (PMTDI) for each mycotoxin. A distinct and more sensitive mycotoxin risk assessment model (MYCORAM) for exposure, stratified by Province and ethnicity were developed utilizing specific maize intake increments (g/kg body weight/day) that provides information on the percentage of the population exposed above the PMTDI for each mycotoxin. Evaluation of the MYCORAM utilizing commercial and experimentally derived SPECIAL milling fractions, containing predefined mycotoxins levels, predicts the percentage of maize consumers exposed above the respective PMTDI. Safety modeling using the MYCORAM could also predict a maximum tolerated level adequate to safeguard all South African maize consumers including the most vulnerable groups. PMID:24980263

  8. Evaluation of European coeliac disease risk variants in a north Indian population

    PubMed Central

    Senapati, Sabyasachi; Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; Sood, Ajit; Midha, Vandana; Szperl, Agata; Romanos, Jihane; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Franke, Lude; Alonso, Santos; Thelma, B K; Wijmenga, Cisca; Trynka, Gosia

    2015-01-01

    Studies in European populations have contributed to a better understanding of the genetics of complex diseases, for example, in coeliac disease (CeD), studies of over 23 000 European samples have reported association to the HLA locus and another 39 loci. However, these associations have not been evaluated in detail in other ethnicities. We sought to better understand how disease-associated loci that have been mapped in Europeans translate to a disease risk for a population with a different ethnic background. We therefore performed a validation of European risk loci for CeD in 497 cases and 736 controls of north Indian origin. Using a dense-genotyping platform (Immunochip), we confirmed the strong association to the HLA region (rs2854275, P=8.2 × 10−49). Three loci showed suggestive association (rs4948256, P=9.3 × 10−7, rs4758538, P=8.6 × 10−5 and rs17080877, P=2.7 × 10−5). We directly replicated five previously reported European variants (P<0.05; mapping to loci harbouring FASLG/TNFSF18, SCHIP1/IL12A, PFKFB3/PRKCQ, ZMIZ1 and ICOSLG). Using a transferability test, we further confirmed association at PFKFB3/PRKCQ (rs2387397, P=2.8 × 10−4) and PTPRK/THEMIS (rs55743914, P=3.4 × 10−4). The north Indian population has a higher degree of consanguinity than Europeans and we therefore explored the role of recessively acting variants, which replicated the HLA locus (rs9271850, P=3.7 × 10−23) and suggested a role of additional four loci. To our knowledge, this is the first replication study of CeD variants in a non-European population. PMID:25052311

  9. Evaluation of an automatic segmentation algorithm for definition of head and neck organs at risk

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The accurate definition of organs at risk (OARs) is required to fully exploit the benefits of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head and neck cancer. However, manual delineation is time-consuming and there is considerable inter-observer variability. This is pertinent as function-sparing and adaptive IMRT have increased the number and frequency of delineation of OARs. We evaluated accuracy and potential time-saving of Smart Probabilistic Image Contouring Engine (SPICE) automatic segmentation to define OARs for salivary-, swallowing- and cochlea-sparing IMRT. Methods Five clinicians recorded the time to delineate five organs at risk (parotid glands, submandibular glands, larynx, pharyngeal constrictor muscles and cochleae) for each of 10 CT scans. SPICE was then used to define these structures. The acceptability of SPICE contours was initially determined by visual inspection and the total time to modify them recorded per scan. The Simultaneous Truth and Performance Level Estimation (STAPLE) algorithm created a reference standard from all clinician contours. Clinician, SPICE and modified contours were compared against STAPLE by the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and mean/maximum distance to agreement (DTA). Results For all investigated structures, SPICE contours were less accurate than manual contours. However, for parotid/submandibular glands they were acceptable (median DSC: 0.79/0.80; mean, maximum DTA: 1.5 mm, 14.8 mm/0.6 mm, 5.7 mm). Modified SPICE contours were also less accurate than manual contours. The utilisation of SPICE did not result in time-saving/improve efficiency. Conclusions Improvements in accuracy of automatic segmentation for head and neck OARs would be worthwhile and are required before its routine clinical implementation. PMID:25086641

  10. Evaluation of Human Papillomavirus Antibodies and Risk of Subsequent Head and Neck Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kreimer, Aimée R.; Johansson, Mattias; Waterboer, Tim; Kaaks, Rudolf; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Drogen, Dagmar; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Quirós, J. Ramón; González, Carlos A.; Sánchez, Maria José; Larrañaga, Nerea; Navarro, Carmen; Barricarte, Aurelio; Travis, Ruth C.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Lagiou, Pagona; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Peeters, Petra H.M.; Panico, Salvatore; Masala, Giovanna; Grioni, Sara; Tumino, Rosario; Vineis, Paolo; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Laurell, Göran; Hallmans, Göran; Manjer, Jonas; Ekström, Johanna; Skeie, Guri; Lund, Eiliv; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Ferrari, Pietro; Byrnes, Graham; Romieu, Isabelle; Riboli, Elio; Hildesheim, Allan; Boeing, Heiner; Pawlita, Michael; Brennan, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) infection is causing an increasing number of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States and Europe. The aim of our study was to investigate whether HPV antibodies are associated with head and neck cancer risk when measured in prediagnostic sera. Methods We identified 638 participants with incident head and neck cancers (patients; 180 oral cancers, 135 oropharynx cancers, and 247 hypopharynx/larynx cancers) and 300 patients with esophageal cancers as well as 1,599 comparable controls from within the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Prediagnostic plasma samples from patients (collected, on average, 6 years before diagnosis) and control participants were analyzed for antibodies against multiple proteins of HPV16 as well as HPV6, HPV11, HPV18, HPV31, HPV33, HPV45, and HPV52. Odds ratios (ORs) of cancer and 95% CIs were calculated, adjusting for potential confounders. All-cause mortality was evaluated among patients using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results HPV16 E6 seropositivity was present in prediagnostic samples for 34.8% of patients with oropharyngeal cancer and 0.6% of controls (OR, 274; 95% CI, 110 to 681) but was not associated with other cancer sites. The increased risk of oropharyngeal cancer among HPV16 E6 seropositive participants was independent of time between blood collection and diagnosis and was observed more than 10 years before diagnosis. The all-cause mortality ratio among patients with oropharyngeal cancer was 0.30 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.67), for patients who were HPV16 E6 seropositive compared with seronegative. Conclusion HPV16 E6 seropositivity was present more than 10 years before diagnosis of oropharyngeal cancers. PMID:23775966

  11. Preoperative evaluation of cardiac risk by means of atrial pacing and thallium 201 scintigraphy

    SciTech Connect

    Stratmann, H.G.; Mark, A.L.; Walter, K.E.; Williams, G.A. )

    1989-10-01

    Atrial pacing and thallium 201 scintigraphy were done in 61 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease referred for evaluation of cardiac risk before elective vascular surgery. All patients had noncardiac limitations precluding performance of an adequate exercise stress test. Before atrial pacing all were considered to be at low risk of a postoperative cardiac event based on assessment of clinical parameters. Vascular surgery was subsequently performed in 47 patients. In these patients, pacing-induced ST segment depression greater than or equal to 1 mm occurred in 18, a fixed perfusion defect occurred in 11, and a reversible defect occurred in six. Two of the six patients with reversible perfusion defects had preoperative coronary angiography; both had significant coronary artery disease (one or more lesions greater than or equal to 50%). Two patients (one of whom had a reversible perfusion defect) underwent preoperative coronary revascularization and tolerated subsequent vascular surgery well. All other patients received only medical therapy. None of the 47 patients undergoing vascular surgery had a postoperative cardiac event (unstable angina, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, or cardiac death). Of the 14 patients in whom vascular surgery was deferred or canceled, surgery was canceled for noncardiac reasons in seven. Six of these seven patients had a normal perfusion scan; none had a reversible perfusion defect or marked (greater than or equal to 2 mm) ST segment depression. No cardiac event occurred during a 3-month period after atrial pacing in any of these patients. Six of the remaining seven patients had reversible perfusion defects.

  12. EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ALERT CHAIN IN CASTILLA Y LEÓN (SPAIN): How can the meteorological risk managers help researchers?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López, Laura; Guerrero-Higueras, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez, José Luis; Matía, Pedro; Ortiz de Galisteo, José Pablo; Rodríguez, Vicente; Lorente, José Manuel; Merino, Andrés; Hermida, Lucía; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-Manso, Oscar

    2013-04-01

    Evaluating the meteorological alert chain, or, how information is transmitted from the meteorological forecasters to the final users, passing through risk managers, is a useful tool that benefits all the links of the chain, especially the meteorology researchers and forecasters. In fact, the risk managers can help significantly to improve meteorological forecasts in different ways. Firstly, by pointing out the most appropriate type of meteorological format, and its characteristics when representing the meteorological information, consequently improving the interpretation of the already-existing forecasts. Secondly, by pointing out the specific predictive needs in their workplaces related to the type of significant meteorological parameters, temporal or spatial range necessary, meteorological products "custom-made" for each type of risk manager, etc. In order to carry out an evaluation of the alert chain in Castilla y León, we opted for the creation of a Panel of Experts made up of personnel specialized in risk management (Responsible for Protection Civil, Responsible for Alert Services and Hydrological Planning of Hydrographical Confederations, Responsible for highway maintenance, and management of fires, fundamentally). In creating this panel, a total of twenty online questions were evaluated, and the majority of the questions were multiple choice or open-ended. Some of the results show how the risk managers think that it would be interesting, or very interesting, to carry out environmental educational campaigns about the meteorological risks in Castilla y León. Another result is the elevated importance that the risk managers provide to the observation data in real-time (real-time of wind, lightning, relative humidity, combined indices of risk of avalanches, snowslides, index of fires due to convective activity, etc.) Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Junta de Castilla y León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2.

  13. The role of risk communication planning in the release of the oral rabies vaccine in New Jersey: An evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Pflugh, K.K.

    1995-12-01

    Communicating health risk information is a complicated task. Citizen reaction to such information is difficult to predict, which makes it hard to plan an appropriate response. Research indicates that the way citizens respond to risk information often depends on whether the risk is familiar or unfamiliar, whether it is seen as imposed on them, whether it is man made or natural, or whether they have control over the risk. Potentially controversial cases that deal with delivering risk information have a special need for a well planned communication effort. Natural resource issues with an impact on public health are no exception. In New Jersey, a proposal to release an experimental bioengineered oral rabies vaccine for raccoons to test the effectiveness of the vaccine in halting the spread of rabies into an as yet unaffected area met with widespread public support and approval due in large part to the use of a unique risk communication planning process. This paper will describe the risk communication planning process used to gain public support and approval for release of oral rabies raccoon vaccine while focusing on the evaluation component of the process. The seven step process includes setting goals, profiling the issue or information gathering, audience identification and assessment, message development, method selection, implementation of the strategy and evaluation and follow-up. The goal of the evaluation component was to determine the effectiveness of the public information campaign on citizen`s knowledge of the field trial nearly three years after the initial announcement. In addition, it sought to learn citizen interest in maintaining the rabies free barrier that was created by the field trial using funds from local taxes. This evaluation includes the results of a mailed survey to 280 citizens, local officials and professional organizations. Finally, this paper will discuss the implications for future outreach efforts dealing complicated technical issues.

  14. Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in patients with Parkinson disease under levodopa treatment

    PubMed Central

    Günaydın, Zeki Yüksel; Özer, Fahriye Feriha; Karagöz, Ahmet; Bektaş, Osman; Karataş, Mehmet Baran; Vural, Aslı; Bayramoğlu, Adil; Çelik, Abdullah; Yaman, Mehmet

    2016-01-01

    Background Levodopa is the indispensable choice of medial therapy in patients with Parkinson disease (PD). Since L-dopa treatment was shown to increase serum homocysteine levels, a well-known risk factor for cardiovascular disorders, the patients with PD under L-dopa treatment will be at increased risk for future cardiovascular events. The objective of this study is to evaluate cardiovascular risk in patients with PD under levodopa treatment. Methods The study population consisted of 65 patients with idiopathic PD under L-dopa treatment. The control group included 32 age and gender matched individuals who had no cognitive decline. Echocardiographic measurements, serum homocysteine levels and elastic parameters of the aorta were compared between the patients with PD and controls. Results As an expected feature of L-dopa therapy, the Parkinson group had significantly higher homocystein levels (15.1 ± 3.9 µmol/L vs. 11.5 ± 3.2 µmol/L, P = 0.02). Aortic distensibility was significantly lower in the patients with PD when compared to controls (4.8 ± 1.5 dyn/cm2 vs. 6.2 ± 1.9 dyn/cm2, P = 0.016). Additionally, the patients with PD had higher aortic strain and aortic stiffness index (13.4% ± 6.4% vs. 7.4% ± 3.6%, P < 0.001 and 7.3 ± 1.5 vs. 4.9 ± 1.9, P < 0.001 respectively). Furthermore, serum homocysteine levels were found to be positively correlated with aortic stiffness index and there was a negative correlation between aortic distensibility and levels of serum homocysteine (r = 0.674, P < 0.001; r = −0.602, P < 0.001, respectively). Conclusions The patients with PD under L-dopa treatment have increased aortic stiffness and impaired diastolic function compared to healthy individuals. Elevated serum homocysteine levels may be a possible pathophysiological mechanism. PMID:26918017

  15. Evaluation of Daptomycin Exposure and Efficacy and Safety Endpoints To Support Risk-versus-Benefit Considerations.

    PubMed

    Bhavnani, Sujata M; Ambrose, Paul G; Hammel, Jeffrey P; Rubino, Christopher M; Drusano, George L

    2016-03-01

    The choice of an antimicrobial agent must balance optimization of efficacy endpoints with the minimization of safety events. The risk versus benefit of daptomycin for patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia with or without infective endocarditis receiving daptomycin at 6, 8, and 10 mg/kg of body weight/day was assessed. The relationships between the area under the concentration-time curve over 24 h (AUC)/MIC ratio and both clinical response and time to decreased susceptibility were evaluated using data from patients with such infections who received daptomycin at 6 mg/kg/day. Using these relationships, plus the previously identified relationship between the minimum concentration and an elevation in the creatine phosphokinase (CPK) concentration (CPK elevation) (S. M. Bhavnani, C. M. Rubino, P. G. Ambrose, and G. L. Drusano, Clin Infect Dis 50:1568-1574, 2010) and Monte Carlo simulation, the probability of each outcome by MIC for daptomycin at 6, 8, and 10 mg/kg/day was calculated. The function for exposure-response relationships for clinical response (P = 0.06) and time to decreased susceptibility (P = 0.01) resembled U and inverted U shapes, respectively. Multivariable analyses demonstrated AUC/MIC ratio, creatinine clearance, albumin concentration, and disease category to be predictors of clinical response. The results of simulations failed to demonstrate large improvements in the probabilities of clinical success among cohorts of simulated patients defined by the above-described predictive factors or the probability of decreased susceptibility at 30 days when the daptomycin dose was increased from 6 to 10 mg/kg/day. The probability of CPK elevation increased from 0.073 to 0.156 over this dose range. These data can be used to inform risk-versus-benefit decisions for daptomycin dose selection in patients with S. aureus bacteremia with or without infective endocarditis. The risk of CPK elevation, which is reversible, should be weighed in the context of the

  16. Teleophthalmology for First Nations Clients at Risk of Diabetic Retinopathy: A Mixed Methods Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Driver, D Dean

    2015-01-01

    Background Access to health services is a particular challenge for First Nations (aboriginal Canadians) communities living in remote or underserviced areas. Teleophthalmology can provide them with the same level of retinal screening services provided to those in urban centers. This screening can lead to the identification of high-risk individuals who can then be monitored and receive treatment related to their diabetes or other health issues. Objective The intent was to develop, implement, and evaluate a service delivery model for teleophthalmology screening and follow-up for at-risk and diabetic First Nations clients on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Methods A highly consultative, culturally appropriate, and collaborative approach was used to develop and deploy a teleophthalmology service delivery model to First Nations communities. This project was evaluated with regard to utilization and operational costs. Also, clinicians and team members involved in the teleophthalmology project provided assessments of the teleopthalmology quality, productivity, and access. Health providers in First Nations communities provided their perceptions of areas of improvement for the remote retinal screening services, areas where expansion of services could be offered, and opportunities to increase client education and health promotion. Results All 51 First Nations communities on Vancouver Island expressed interest in receiving teleopthalmology services. During the 1-year project, teleopthalmology clinics were held in 43 of 51 communities on Vancouver Island. During these clinics, 524 clients were screened and 140 of those clients were referred to a general ophthalmologist, family doctor, retinal specialist, optometrist, or other provider. Ratings of teleopthalmology system quality, information quality, service quality, and system usage were positive. Satisfaction with the teleopthalmology project was high among clinicians involved with the project. Satisfaction was also

  17. Evaluating uncertainty to strengthen epidemiologic data for use in human health risk assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: There is a recognized need to improve the application of epidemiologic data in human health risk assessment especially for understanding and characterizing risks from environmental and occupational exposures. While most epidemiologic studies result in uncertainty, tec...

  18. Conceptualizing and Re-Evaluating Resilience across Levels of Risk, Time, and Domains of Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vanderbilt-Adriance, Ella; Shaw, Daniel S.

    2008-01-01

    This article examines potential theoretical constraints on resilience across levels of risk, time, and domain of outcome. Studies of resilience are reviewed as they relate to the prevalence of resilience across levels of risk (e.g., single life events vs. cumulative risk), time, and domains of adjustment. Based on a thorough review of pertinent…

  19. Evaluating the Utility of a Risk Assessment To Predict Recidivism among Male and Female Adolescents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharkey, Jill D.; Furlong, Michael J.; Jimerson, Shane R.; O'Brien, Kathryn M.

    2003-01-01

    This longitudinal study examined risk assessment dimensions and practices used by the Orange County (California) Juvenile Probation Office to identify youth most at risk of re-offending. Results indicated that the risk assessment was not equally predictive for females and males. The use of gender specific norms or gender neutral assessments and…

  20. Within-drug benefit-risk evaluation of olanzapine long-acting injection at one and two years of treatment.

    PubMed

    Detke, Holland C; Lauriello, John; Landry, John; McDonnell, David P

    2014-12-01

    We sought to evaluate the within-drug benefit-risk of olanzapine long-acting injection (LAI) using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Subjects included 1192 adult patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder who participated in clinical trials with the opportunity for at least two years of continuous treatment with olanzapine LAI (45-405 mg every two to four weeks). Using the Benefit Risk Action Team (BRAT) framework, we evaluated frequency versus duration of benefits and risks commonly observed with atypical antipsychotics. We then used the Transparent Uniform Risk/Benefit Overview (TURBO) method, which weighs the drug's two most medically serious and/or frequent adverse events versus its primary benefit (effectiveness) and an ancillary benefit. The most frequent events among all patients were remaining free of relapse (91.4% for an average of 306 days at one year, 88.4% for 546 days at two years) and symptomatic remission (81.7% for an average of 239 days at one year, 84.1% for 438 days at two years). One- and two-year incidence of ≥7% weight gain was 33.3% and 41.7%. Incidences for sexual dysfunction, hyperprolactinemia, and post-injection delirium/sedation syndrome (PDSS) were <2%. TURBO ratings unanimously selected PDSS and weight gain as key risks and resulted in an average score in the acceptable benefit-risk balance range. PMID:24996038

  1. Development of the STAR evaluation system for football helmets: integrating player head impact exposure and risk of concussion.

    PubMed

    Rowson, Steven; Duma, Stefan M

    2011-08-01

    In contrast to the publicly available data on the safety of automobiles, consumers have no analytical mechanism to evaluate the protective performance of football helmets. The objective of this article is to fill this void by introducing a new equation that can be used to evaluate helmet performance by integrating player head impact exposure and risk of concussion. The Summation of Tests for the Analysis of Risk (STAR) equation relates on-field impact exposure to a series of 24 drop tests performed at four impact locations and six impact energy levels. Using 62,974 head acceleration data points collected from football players, the number of impacts experienced for one full season was translated to 24 drop test configurations. A new injury risk function was developed from 32 measured concussions and associated exposure data to assess risk of concussion for each impact. Finally, the data from all 24 drop tests is combined into one number using the STAR formula that incorporates the predicted exposure and injury risk for one player for one full season of practices and games. The new STAR evaluation equation will provide consumers with a meaningful metric to assess the relative performance of football helmets. PMID:21553135

  2. Evaluation of socio-spatial vulnerability of citydwellers and analysis of risk perception: industrial and seismic risks in Mulhouse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glatron, S.; Beck, E.

    2008-10-01

    Social vulnerability has been studied for years with sociological, psychological and economical approaches. Our proposition focuses on perception and cognitive representations of risks by city dwellers living in a medium size urban area, namely Mulhouse (France). Perception, being part of the social vulnerability and resilience of the society to disasters, influences the potential damage; for example it leads to adequate or inadequate behaviour in the case of an emergency. As geographers, we assume that the spatial relationship to danger or hazard can be an important factor of vulnerability and we feel that the spatial dimension is a challenging question either for better knowledge or for operational reasons (e.g. management of preventive information). We interviewed 491 people, inhabitants and workers, regularly distributed within the urban area to get to know their opinion on hazards and security measures better. We designed and mapped a vulnerability index on the basis of their answers. The results show that the social vulnerability depends on the type of hazard, and that the distance to the source of danger influences the vulnerability, especially for hazards with a precise location (industrial for example). Moreover, the effectiveness of the information campaigns is doubtful, as the people living close to hazardous industries (target of specific preventive information) are surprisingly more vulnerable and less aware of industrial risk.

  3. Evaluating periodontal risk for patients at risk of or suffering from atherosclerosis: recent biological hypotheses and therapeutic consequences.

    PubMed

    Huck, Olivier; Saadi-Thiers, Kenza; Tenenbaum, Henri; Davideau, Jean-Luc; Romagna, Christine; Laurent, Yves; Cottin, Yves; Roul, José G

    2011-05-01

    Cardiovascular disease, such as atherosclerosis, is the main cause of mortality in developed countries. Most atherosclerosis risk factors have been identified and are treated, improving patient cardiovascular status and reducing mortality, but some remain unknown. Periodontal disease is generally defined as inflammatory disease initiated by accumulation of dental bacterial plaque, leading to the destruction of tissues that support the teeth. Severe forms have a high prevalence (15% of the population) and are associated with the presence of virulent pathogens such as Porphyromonas gingivalis. Epidemiological studies have shown that severe periodontal disease negatively influences cardiovascular status. The aim of this paper was to present a synthesis of the most recent biological data related to the link between periodontal and cardiovascular disease. The potential biological mechanisms involved in these two inflammatory diseases (bacteriological theory, inflammatory theory, immune theory) were developed. According to the observed positive effects of periodontal treatment on systemic conditions, the benefit of a reinforced collaboration between dentists and cardiologists was discussed, especially for patients at risk for cardiovascular disease. PMID:21693372

  4. A 9-year evaluation of temporal trends in alosetron postmarketing safety under the risk management program

    PubMed Central

    Tong, Kenneth; Nicandro, Jean Paul; Shringarpure, Reshma; Chuang, Emil

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: Adverse events (AEs) of ischemic colitis (IC) and complications of constipation (CoC) associated with alosetron are rare and have been adjudicated during the first 5.5 years of the risk management program (RMP); however, changes in incidence rates relative to reductions in AE reports and increases in alosetron prescriptions over the 9-year RMP have not been evaluated. The authors aim to evaluate temporal trends in alosetron postmarketing safety over the 9-year RMP. Methods: The alosetron safety database was searched to identify cases of IC, CoC, and related AEs from 20 November 2002 to 31 December 2011. Adjudication of IC and CoC cases were based on US Food and Drug Administration-defined criteria. Incidence rates were calculated using the number of AEs and alosetron prescriptions (expressed as cases/1000 patient-years exposure). Results: A total of 29 cases were adjudicated as probable/possible IC and 7 cases were adjudicated as CoC. Cumulative adjudicated incidence rate of IC (1.03 cases/1000 patient-years) is low and stable, while that of CoC (0.25 cases/1000 patient-years) is low, declining progressively over time. Decreases in the incidence rates of potential symptoms of IC (abdominal pain with bloody diarrhea/hematochezia) and CoC (constipation) were also observed. Conclusions: Over the 9-year RMP period, incidence rates of IC and CoC remain rare. Substantial reductions over time were observed in the incidence of CoC and in symptoms suggestive of IC or CoC, while IC incidence has been stable at approximately 1.0 case/1000 patient-years. Decreases in AEs and serious outcomes associated with IC and CoC since the reintroduction of alosetron are likely attributable to the RMP. PMID:24003335

  5. Level III baseline risk evaluation for Building 3505 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect

    Mostella, W.B. Jr.

    1994-12-01

    The Level III Baseline Risk Evaluation (BRE) for Building 3505, the ORNL Metal Recovery Facility, provides an analysis of the potential for adverse health effects, current or future, associated with the presence of hazardous substances in the building. The Metal Recovery Facility was used from 1952 through 1960 to process large quantities of radioactive material using the PUREX process for the recovery of uranium-238, plutonium-239, neptunium-237, and americium-241. The facility consists of seven process cells (A through G), a canal, a dissolver room, a dissolver pit, an office, locker room, storage area, control room, electrical gallery, shop, and makeup area. The cells were used to house the nuclear fuel reprocessing equipment, and the canal was constructed to be used as a water-shielded transfer canal. Currently, there are no known releases of radioactive contaminants from Building 3505. To perform the BRE, historical radiological survey data were used to estimate the concentration of alpha- and beta/gamma emitting radionuclides in the various cells, rooms, and other areas in Building 3505. Data from smear surveys were used to estimate the amount of transferable contamination (to which receptors can be exposed via inhalation and ingestion), and data from probe surveys were used to estimate the amount of both fixed and transferable contamination (from which receptors can receive external exposure). Two land use scenarios, current and future, and their subsequent exposure scenarios were explored in the BRE. Under the current land use scenario, two exposure scenarios were evaluated. The first was a worst-case industrial exposure scenario in which the receptor is a maintenance worker who works 8 hours/day, 350 days/year in the building for 25 years. In the second, more realistic exposure scenario, the receptor is a surveillance and maintenance (S&M) worker who spends two 8-hour days/year in the building for 25 years.

  6. Evaluation of Epidemiology and Animal Data for Risk Assessment: Chlorpyrifos Developmental Neurobehavioral Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Li, Abby A.; Lowe, Kimberly A.; McIntosh, Laura J.; Mink, Pamela J.

    2012-01-01

    Developmental neurobehavioral outcomes attributed to exposure to chlorpyrifos (CPF) obtained from epidemiologic and animal studies published before June 2010 were reviewed for risk assessment purposes. For epidemiological studies, this review considered (1) overall strength of study design, (2) specificity of CPF exposure biomarkers, (3) potential for bias, and (4) Hill guidelines for causal inference. In the case of animal studies, this review focused on evaluating the consistency of outcomes for developmental neurobehavioral endpoints from in vivo mammalian studies that exposed dams and/or offspring to CPF prior to weaning. Developmental neuropharmacologic and neuropathologic outcomes were also evaluated. Experimental design and methods were examined as part of the weight of evidence. There was insufficient evidence that human developmental exposures to CPF produce adverse neurobehavioral effects in infants and children across different cohort studies that may be relevant to CPF exposure. In animals, few behavioral parameters were affected following gestational exposures to 1 mg/kg-d but were not consistently reported by different laboratories. For postnatal exposures, behavioral effects found in more than one study at 1 mg/kg-d were decreased errors on a radial arm maze in female rats and increased errors in males dosed subcutaneously from postnatal day (PND) 1 to 4. A similar finding was seen in rats exposed orally from PND 1 to 21 with incremental dose levels of 1, 2, and 4 mg/kg-d, but not in rats dosed with constant dose level of 1 mg/kg-d. Neurodevelopmental behavioral, pharmacological, and morphologic effects occurred at doses that produced significant brain or red blood cell acetylcholinesterase inhibition in dams or offspring. PMID:22401178

  7. “But there are no snakes in the wood”: risk mapping as an outcome measure in evaluating complex interventions

    PubMed Central

    Power, Robert; Langhaug, Lisa; Cowan, Frances

    2007-01-01

    Objectives To complement biological and social behavioural markers in evaluating the complex intervention of sexual and reproductive health among adolescents in rural Zimbabwe, community‐derived markers of effectiveness were sought. Through a participatory workshop with adolescent boys and girls, an innovative “risk map research workshop” was developed to be conducted throughout the study sites. Methods 78 gender‐specific standardised workshops were conducted among secondary school students. Participants drew risk maps of their community. Focus group discussions explored each risk area identified on the map. Grounded Theory was used to create “categories” and “subcategories.” Workshops continued to be held until “saturation”, whereby no new categories emerged. “Axial coding” identified the inter‐relationship between categories and subcategories according to their relevance to sexual and reproductive health risk. Results Six “risk area” Grounded Theory categories emerged from the data: bush/rural terrain, commercial centres, homes, school environs, religious and spiritual venues, and roadsides. 17 subcategories emerged, grouped under each of the risk area categories, such as riverbeds, growth points, homesteads, classrooms, all‐night prayer meetings and truck stops. Risks and the consequences of risks included sexually transmitted infections (including HIV), violence, sexual abuse, expulsion from school and illegal abortion. Conclusions Risk maps provide unique data that can be used to measure more subtle changes that occur as a result of social behavioural interventions aimed at addressing reproductive and sexual health. Another round of risk map research workshops will be held towards the end of the study to explore changes in milieu, behaviour and experiences, and will complement and triangulate the biological and other social behavioural outcome measures. PMID:17344248

  8. Evaluation of Environmental Risk of Metal Contaminated Soils and Sediments Near Mining Sites in Aguascalientes, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Kerry Nigel; Ramos Gómez, Magdalena Samanta; Guerrero Barrera, Alma Lilian; Yamamoto Flores, Laura; Flores de la Torre, Juan Armando; Avelar González, Francisco Javier

    2016-08-01

    A total of sixteen composite soil and sediment samples were collected during the rainy and dry season in Asientos, Aguascalientes, Mexico, an area recently affected by increased mining operations. Physicochemical characterization showed that substrates were moderately to strongly calcareous with predominantly neutral to slightly alkaline pH, moderate to high cation-exchange capacity and high organic matter content. Due to these conditions, Cd, Pb, Cu and Zn were not water leachable despite high concentrations; up to 105.3, 7052.8, 414.7 and 12,263.2 mg kg(-1) respectively. However, Cd and Pb were considered to be easily mobilizable as they were found predominantly associated with exchangeable and carbonate fractions, whereas Cu and Zn were found associated with Fe/Mn oxide and organic matter fractions. The results highlighted the influence of physicochemical substrate properties on the mobility of metals and its importance during the evaluation of the potential current and future risk metal contamination presents in affected areas. PMID:27178544

  9. Risk assessment of sleeping disorder breathing based on upper airway centerline evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alsufyani, Noura; Shen, Rui; Cheng, Irene; Major, Paul

    2013-02-01

    One of the most important breathing disorders in childhood is obstructive sleep apnea syndrome which affects 2-3% of children, and the reported failure rate of surgical treatment was as high as 54%. A possible reason in respiratory complications is having reduced dimensions of the upper airway which are further compressed when muscle tone is decreased during sleep. In this study, we use Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) to assess the location or cause of the airway obstruction. To date, all studies analyzing the upper airway in subjects with Sleeping Disorder Breathing were based on linear, area, or volumetric measurements, which are global computations and can easily ignore local significance. Skeletonization was initially introduced as a 3D modeling technique by which representative medial points of a model are extracted to generate centerlines for evaluations. Although centerlines have been commonly used in guiding surgical procedures, our novelty lies in comparing its geometric properties before and after surgeries. We apply 3D data refinement, registration and projection steps to quantify and localize the geometric deviation in target airway regions. Through cross validation with corresponding subjects' therapy data, we expect to quantify the tolerance threshold beyond which reduced dimensions of the upper airway are not clinically significant. The ultimate goal is to utilize this threshold to identify patients at risk of complications. Outcome from this research will also help establish a predictive model for training and to estimate treatment success based on airway measurements prior to intervention. Preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of our approach.

  10. Evaluation of usefulness of Microbial Assay for Risk Assessment (MARA) in the cyanobacterial toxicity estimation.

    PubMed

    Sieroslawska, Anna

    2014-07-01

    The aim of the study was to elucidate the usefulness of the Microbial Assay for Risk Assessment (MARA) to evaluate toxicity in samples containing cyanobacterial products. Cyanobacterial extracts with different cyanotoxin contents and pure cyanotoxins-microcystin-LR, cylindrospermopsin and anatoxin-a-were tested. On the basis of the microbial reaction, MARA indicated only slight or no toxicity in the studied extracts. Similarly, no or low toxicity of pure toxins was detected at the concentrations used (up to 10 μg/ml). Weak relationships between the reactions of individual organisms exposed to cyanotoxin-containing extracts and to the same pure toxins were observed. On the other hand, inhibition of some organisms, such as Pichia anomalia, whose growth was not impacted by pure cyanotoxins, indicated the presence of other biologically active compounds in the studied extracts. In conclusion, MARA assay is not enough sensitive to be used as a good tool for cyanotoxin screening. It may, however, be applied in searching for antimicrobial/antifungal cyanobacteria-derived compounds. PMID:24682641

  11. Ultrasound evaluation of fetal movements in pregnancies at risk for severe spinal muscular atrophy.

    PubMed

    Parra, Juan; Martínez-Hernández, Rebeca; Also-Rallo, Eva; Alias, Laura; Barceló, María Jesús; Amenedo, María; Medina, Carmen; Senosiain, Raquel; Calaf, Joaquim; Baiget, Montserrat; Bernal, Sara; Tizzano, Eduardo F

    2011-02-01

    We studied spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) during human development to identify possible delays or alterations in fetal movements detectable by ultrasound. We evaluated 29 pregnancies at risk for severe SMA performing 2D-ultrasound around 11-14 weeks, prior to prenatal molecular testing of the SMN1 gene. We charted the occurrence of generalized body movements, isolated movements of arms and legs, head movements, startle and hiccup. Fetuses were diagnosed as healthy (n=12), carriers (n=10) or affected (n=7) according to the SMN1 molecular testing results obtained. SMN2 copies were also tested in the seven affected fetuses, six of whom showed two SMN2 copies and one a unique SMN2 copy. The movements under study were observed in all recordings, regardless of group and the SMN2 copies. At the gestational age examined, we did not observe a qualitative early limitation of movements in fetuses with SMA, even in cases predicted to develop a severe neonatal form. PMID:21194946

  12. Thermal Runaway Risk Evaluation of Li-Ion Cells Using a Pinch-Torsion Test

    SciTech Connect

    Ren, Fei; Cox, Thomas S; Wang, Hsin

    2014-01-01

    Internal short circuit (ISCr) can lead to failure of Li-ion cells and sometimes result in thermal runaway. Understanding the behavior of Li-ion cells in ISCr condition is thus critical to evaluate the safety of these energy storage devices. In the current work, a pinch-torsion test is developed to simulate ISCr in a controlled manner. It is demonstrated that the torsional component superimposed on compression loading can reduce the axial load required to induce ISCr with smaller short spot size. Using this pinch-torsion test, two commercial Li-ion pouch cells were tested under different state of charge (SOC). Based on the severity of the cell damage, a series of thermal runaway risk scores were used to rate the thermal stability of these cells. One of the cell types showed significantly increased hazard as the SOC increased while the other type exhibited relative uniform behavior among different SOC. Therefore this novel pinch-torsion test seems to be an attractive candidate for safety testing of Li-ion cells due to its abilities to consistently create small ISCr spots and to differentiate cell stability in a wide range of SOC.

  13. Thermal runaway risk evaluation of Li-ion cells using a pinch-torsion test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Fei; Cox, Thomas; Wang, Hsin

    2014-03-01

    Internal short circuit (ISCr) can lead to failure of Li-ion cells and sometimes result in thermal runaway. Understanding the behavior of Li-ion cells in ISCr condition is thus critical to evaluate the safety of these energy storage devices. In the current work, a pinch-torsion test is developed to simulate ISCr in a controlled manner. It is demonstrated that the torsional component superimposed on compression loading can reduce the axial load required to induce ISCr with smaller short spot size. Using this pinch-torsion test, two types of commercial Li-ion pouch cells were tested under different state of charge (SOC). Based on the severity of the cell damage, a series of thermal runaway risk scores were used to rate the thermal stability of these cells. One of the cell types showed significantly increased hazard as the SOC increased while the other type exhibited relative uniform behavior among different SOC. Therefore, this novel pinch-torsion test seems to be an attractive candidate for safety testing of Li-ion cells due to its abilities to consistently create small ISCr spots and to differentiate cell stability in a wide range of SOC.

  14. Evaluation of indicated suicide risk prevention approaches for potential high school dropouts.

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, E A; Eggert, L L; Randell, B P; Pike, K C

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the efficacy of 2 indicated preventive interventions, postintervention and at 9-month follow-up. METHODS: Drawn from a pool of potential high school dropouts, 460 youths were identified as being at risk for suicide and participated in 1 of 3 conditions randomly assigned by school: (1) Counselors CARE (C-CARE) (n = 150), a brief one-to-one assessment and crisis intervention; (2) Coping and Support Training (CAST) (n = 155), a small-group skills-building and social support intervention delivered with C-CARE; and (3) usual-care control (n = 155). Survey instruments were administered pre-intervention, following C-CARE (4 weeks), following CAST (10 weeks), and at a 9-month follow-up. RESULTS: Growth curve analyses showed significant rates of decline in attitude toward suicide and suicidal ideation associated with the experimental interventions. C-CARE and CAST, compared with usual care, also were effective in reducing depression and hopelessness. Among females, reductions in anxiety and anger were greater in response to the experimental programs. CAST was most effective in enhancing and sustaining personal control and problem-solving coping for males and females. CONCLUSIONS: School-based, indicated prevention approaches are feasible and effective for reducing suicidal behaviors and related emotional distress and for enhancing protective factors. PMID:11344882

  15. Inaccuracy of Self-Evaluation as Additional Variable for Prediction of Students at Risk of Failing First-Year Chemistry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Potgieter, Marietjie; Ackermann, Mia; Fletcher, Lizelle

    2010-01-01

    Early identification of students at risk of failing first-year chemistry allows timely intervention. Cognitive factors alone are insufficient predictors for success; however, non cognitive factors are usually difficult to measure. We have explored the use of demographic and performance variables, as well as the accuracy of self-evaluation as an…

  16. Pre-Vocational Immersion as Risk Intervention in a Mainstream Setting: A Preliminary Evaluation of Project OASES.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrow, Daniel Hibbs; And Others

    This study evaluates a 1-year, pre-vocational intervention--Project OASES (Occupational and Academic Skills for the Employment of Students)--for at-risk middle school students in the Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania) Public School District. The study sample consisted of 502 former participants and 148 active participants (1988-1989 school year) plus…

  17. Development and Psychometric Evaluation of the Reasons for Living-Older Adults Scale: A Suicide Risk Assessment Inventory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edelstein, Barry A.; Heisel, Marnin J.; McKee, Deborah R.; Martin, Ronald R.; Koven, Lesley P.; Duberstein, Paul R.; Britton, Peter C.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purposes of these studies were to develop and initially evaluate the psychometric properties of the Reasons for Living Scale-Older Adult version (RFL-OA), an older adults version of a measure designed to assess reasons for living among individuals at risk for suicide. Design and Methods: Two studies are reported. Study 1 involved…

  18. The Evaluation of a Sexual Assault Self-Defense and Risk-Reduction Program for College Women: A Prospective Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gidycz, Christine A.; Rich, Cindy L.; Orchowski, Lindsay; King, Carrie; Miller, Audrey K.

    2006-01-01

    The present study evaluated the efficacy of a sexual assault risk-reduction program that included a physical self-defense component for college women ("N"=500). Program group women significantly increased their protective behaviors over the 6-month follow-up period compared to the waiting-list control group. However, there were no significant…

  19. Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment Caes Study: II. Evaluation of the Dibutyl Phthalate Toxicogenomic Dataset

    EPA Science Inventory

    An evaluation of the toxicogenomic data set for dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and male reproductive developmental effects was performed as part of a larger case study to test an approach for incorporating genomic data in risk assessment. The DBP toxicogenomic data set is composed of ni...

  20. An Evaluation of a School-Based, Peer-Facilitated, Healthy Relationship Program for At-Risk Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLeod, David Axlyn; Jones, Robin; Cramer, Elizabeth P.

    2015-01-01

    There are few evaluations of peer-facilitated teenage dating violence prevention programs in the literature. To begin to address this gap, this project assessed the effectiveness of a school-based, peer-facilitated healthy relationships program among academically at-risk students. Two hundred and ninety-one ninth graders of mixed race and gender…

  1. Methods and results of an evaluation of aquatic receptor risk at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site, Golden, Colorado

    SciTech Connect

    Klima, K.

    1995-12-31

    The Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) has historically released radionuclide chemicals of potential concern into the surrounding environment. The off-site environment was evaluated for Pu{sup 239/240} and Am{sup 241} occurrence. An evaluation of exposure and effects to the aquatic ecology within off-site areas including: Standley Lake, Great Western Reservoir, Mower Reservoir and portions of Big Dry Creek, Walnut Creek, and Woman Creek was performed for the completion of an Ecological Risk Assessment. Collocated sampling activities were performed for surface water, sediment, benthic macroinvertebrates and fish. Results of the analytical data were used to assess ongoing exposure and effects. Data collected to determine effects (chemical content of fish tissue, diversity and density of macroinvertebrate populations) provided some of the necessary information needed to evaluate risk. However, due to conditions of interfering stressor effects, a quantitative evaluation of exposure through modeling techniques was also required to assess risk attributable to chemical of potential concern (COPC) occurrence. This paper presents the methods and results of both the effects and exposure assessment techniques applicable for this site and for the determination of risk.

  2. Evaluation of Time- and Concentration-dependent Toxic Effect Models for use in Aquatic Risk Assessments, Oral Presentation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Various models have been proposed for describing the time- and concentration-dependence of toxic effects to aquatic organisms, which would improve characterization of risks in natural systems. Selected models were evaluated using results from a study on the lethality of copper t...

  3. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Methods Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. Results While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Conclusions Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches. PMID:21864330

  4. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters. Experts` determination of structural response issues

    SciTech Connect

    Breeding, R.J.; Harper, F.T.; Brown, T.D.; Gregory, J.J.; Payne, A.C.; Gorham, E.D.; Murfin, W.; Amos, C.N.

    1992-03-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s (NRC`s) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom, and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ``so-called`` point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station were assessed. Much of the important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Structural Response Panel.

  5. Perceived Susceptibility to AIDS Predicts Subsequent HIV Risk: A Longitudinal Evaluation of Jail Inmates

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Leah M.; Stuewig, Jeffrey B.; Tangney, June P.; Kashdan, Todd B.

    2013-01-01

    Theories of health behavior change suggest that perceived susceptibility to illness precedes health-protective behavior. We used a cross-lagged panel design to explore the relationship between perceived susceptibility to AIDS, and HIV risk behavior pre-incarceration and post-release in a sample of 499 jail inmates, a group at high risk for HIV. We also explored moderators of this relationship. HIV risk was calculated with a Bernoulli mathematical process model. Controlling for pre-incarceration HIV risk, perceived susceptibility to AIDS predicted less post-release HIV risk; the reverse relationship was not supported. Consistent with health behavior change theories, perceived susceptibility seemed to partially guide behavior. However, this relationship was not true for everyone. African-Americans and individuals high in borderline personality features exhibited no relationship between perceived susceptibility and changes in HIV risk. This suggests that targeted interventions are needed to use information about risk level to prevent HIV contraction. PMID:23591920

  6. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Peach Bottom, Unit 2: Main report

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, A.C.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Shiver, A.W. ); Helton, J.C. ); Smith, L.N. )

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, Unit 2. This power plant, located in southeastern Pennsylvania, is operated by the Philadelphia Electric Company. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events both internal and external to the power station were assessed. 39 refs., 174 figs., 133 tabs.

  7. Perceived susceptibility to AIDS predicts subsequent HIV risk: a longitudinal evaluation of jail inmates.

    PubMed

    Adams, Leah M; Stuewig, Jeffrey B; Tangney, June P; Kashdan, Todd B

    2014-06-01

    Theories of health behavior change suggest that perceived susceptibility to illness precedes health-protective behavior. We used a cross-lagged panel design to explore the relationship between perceived susceptibility to AIDS, and HIV risk behavior pre-incarceration and post-release in a sample of 499 jail inmates, a group at high risk for HIV. We also explored moderators of this relationship. HIV risk was calculated with a Bernoulli mathematical process model. Controlling for pre-incarceration HIV risk, perceived susceptibility to AIDS predicted less post-release HIV risk; the reverse relationship was not supported. Consistent with health behavior change theories, perceived susceptibility seemed to partially guide behavior. However, this relationship was not true for everyone. African-Americans and individuals high in borderline personality features exhibited no relationship between perceived susceptibility and changes in HIV risk. This suggests that targeted interventions are needed to use information about risk level to prevent HIV contraction. PMID:23591920

  8. Evaluating and quantifying the potential for CO2 leakage through the caprock during carbon sequestration using a Risk Matrix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edlmann, K.

    2012-04-01

    Geological sequestration of CO2 in deep aquifers or depleted oil/gas reservoirs is considered a solution for reducing excess CO2 currently being emitted to the atmosphere. Low permeability cap rocks trap the CO2 that is then sequestered in the underlying porous reservoir or aquifer rock. The long term dependability of CO2 sequestration is directly linked to the integrity of the caprock seals effectively trapping the CO2. Evaluation and quantification of all of the possible CO2 leakage risks and their severity and probability throughout the life of the carbon sequestration timescale is essential. This study aims to identify the CO2 leakage risks, analyse them and then evaluate the impact of each risk - will it cause leakage, how will it leak and how much will it leak? The risks assessed covered all factors that may lead to CO2 leakage including those associated with matrix permeability, CO2 diffusion, aquifer flow, scCO2 flow properties, capillary transport, effective and relative permeability of the scCO2 / brine / pore system, migration through fracture and microfracture network both existing and induced, geological discontinuities and the wellbore and drilling environment. The risks were assessed by assigning a severity and probability to each identified risk. Severity was ranked from 1 to 5; where 1 was mm scale intrusion and 5 was leakage above the top caprock. Probability was also ranked from 1 to 5; where 1 was likelihood of happening after 10,000 years and 5 was likelihood of it happening during injection. A risk matrix was produced which highlights the risks that will have the most significant impact on CO2 sequestration reliability.

  9. Evaluation of coronary artery calcium screening strategies focused on risk categories: The Dallas Heart Study

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Mahesh J.; de Lemos, James A.; McGuire, Darren K.; See, Raphael; Lindsey, Jason B.; Murphy, Sabina A.; Grundy, Scott M.; Khera, Amit

    2010-01-01

    Background A strategy using coronary artery calcium (CAC) screening to refine coronary heart disease risk assessment in moderately high risk (MHR) subjects (10-year risk 10%–20%) has been suggested. The potential impact of this strategy is unknown. Methods Coronary artery calcium screening strategies focused on MHR subjects were modeled in 2,610 subjects aged 30 to 65 years undergoing Framingham risk scoring and CAC assessment in the Dallas Heart Study. The proportions of subjects eligible for imaging and reclassified from MHR to high risk (HR) (10-year risk >20%) based upon CAC scores were determined. Results Only 1.0% of women and 15.4% of men were at MHR by Framingham risk scoring and thus eligible for imaging, and <0.1% and 1.1% respectively, changed from MHR to HR using a CAC threshold ≥400. Coronary artery calcium imaging targeting MHR subjects was also relatively inefficient (>100 women, 14.3 men scanned per subject reclassified). Restricting to an older age range (45–65 years) or expanding the MHR group to 6% to 20% risk had virtually no impact on risk assessment in women. In a secondary analysis, a proposed imaging strategy targeting promotion of subjects from lower risk to MHR was more efficient and had greater yield than current recommendations targeting promotion from MHR to HR. Conclusions Coronary artery calcium screening strategies focused on MHR subjects will have a negligible impact on risk assessment in women and a modest impact in men. Further studies are needed to optimize the use of CAC screening as an adjunct to coronary heart disease risk assessment, especially for women and those at seemingly lower risk. PMID:19464410

  10. Using the Cancer Risk Management Model to evaluate colorectal cancer screening options for Canada

    PubMed Central

    Coldman, A.J.; Phillips, N.; Brisson, J.; Flanagan, W.; Wolfson, M.; Nadeau, C.; Fitzgerald, N.; Miller, A.B.

    2015-01-01

    Background Several screening methods for colorectal cancer (crc) are available, and some have been shown by randomized trials to be effective. In the present study, we used a well-developed population health simulation model to compare the risks and benefits of a variety of screening scenarios. Tests considered were the fecal occult blood test (fobt), the fecal immunochemical test (fit), flexible sigmoidoscopy, and colonoscopy. Outcomes considered included years of life gained, crc cases and deaths prevented, and direct health system costs. Methods A natural history model of crc was implemented and calibrated to specified targets within the framework of the Cancer Risk Management Model (crmm) from the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer. The crmm-crc permits users to enter their own parameter values or to use program-specified base values. For each of 23 screening scenarios, we used the crmm-crc to run 10 million replicate simulations. Results Using base parameter values and some user-specified values in the crmm-crc, and comparing our screening scenarios with no screening, all screening scenarios were found to reduce the incidence of and mortality from crc. The fobt was the least effective test; it was not associated with lower net cost. Colonoscopy screening was the most effective test; it had net costs comparable to those for several other strategies considered, but required more than 3 times the colonoscopy resources needed by other approaches. After colonoscopy, strategies based on the fit were predicted to be the most effective. In sensitivity analyses performed for the fobt and fit screening strategies, fobt parameter values associated with high-sensitivity formulations were associated with a substantial increase in test effectiveness. The fit was more cost-effective at the 50 ng/mL threshold than at the 100 ng/mL threshold. Conclusions The crmm-crc provides a sophisticated and flexible environment in which to evaluate crc control options. All screening

  11. The evaluation of risk factors for failed response to conservative treatment in tubo-ovarian abscesses

    PubMed Central

    Akkurt, Mehmet Özgür; Yalçın, Serenat Eris; Akkurt, İltaç; Tatar, Burak; Yavuz, And; Yalçın, Yakup; Akgül, Mehmet Akif; Kayıkçıoğlu, Fulya

    2015-01-01

    Objective The aim of our study is to assess the risk factors for medical treatment failure and to predict the patients who will require the surgical therapy as well as to predict the factors affecting treatment success. Material and Methods This was a cross-sectional study including 76 women with tubo-ovarian abscesses (TOA) who were either conservatively or surgically treated and were admitted to two gynecology units over a 4-year period. The demographic characteristics of the patients, gynecologic and obstetric histories, size and localization of abscesses were recorded. Gentamicin plus clindamycin treatment protocol was implemented for all patients. Ampicillin treatment was added in three patients with the positive culture of Actinomyces. Response to treatment was evaluated after 48–72 h. Patients who fail to respond to medical treatment required surgery or percutaneous drainage. We compared clinical and laboratory factors between the groups. Results In surgery group, patients were significantly older than the others (44.9±5.4 versus 39.1±7.6 years). Fifty-six patients (74%) responded to antibiotics and 20 of the patients required surgical intervention. Patients treated with antibiotics were hospitalized for an average of 6.32±2.8 days versus 12.75±5.6 days for those who required surgery (p=0.021). Patients who were surgically treated had a mean size of TOA of 67.9±11.2 mm versus 53.6±9.4 mm for those treated with antibiotics alone (p=0.036). There were no significant differences between groups in laboratory parameters, except for initial white blood cell (WBC) counts. The complications of surgery included in descending order of frequency blood transfusions, surgical wound infections, bowel injury, and bladder injury. Conclusion An increased size of pelvic mass, higher initial WBC counts, advanced age, and smoking were all associated with failed response to conservative treatment. It is important to identify the risk factors to distinguish patients who

  12. MeProRisk - a toolbox for evaluating risks in exploration, development, and operation of geothermal reservoirs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clauser, C.

    2009-04-01

    When developing geothermal resources, the risk of failure is still high when compared to hydrocarbon exploration. The MeProRisk projects aims at the improvement of strategies in all phases of the reservoir life cycle. It is a joint enterprise of five university institutes at RWTH Aachen University, Free University Berlin, and Kiel University. Two partners, namely Geophysica Beratunggesellschaft mbH, (Aachen), and RWE Dea AG (Hamburg) present the industrial side. It is funded by the German Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF). The key idea followed in this project is that the development of the understanding of a given reservoir is an iterative process. Starting from geological base knowledge and geophysical exploration one or more conceptual models will emerge, which will be incorporated in first numerical models. The use of inverse techniques in a broad sense will not only lead to an optimal model, but will produce uncertainty and resolution estimates for this model. This information may be used for further setup of optimal experiments, including the choice of exploration well locations. In later stages of reservoir development, the numerical models will be continuously updated based on the most recent models. Once wells have been drilled, the character of experiments shifts from static methods to dynamic interaction with the reservoir, e.g. by injection experiments and their monitoring. The use of all the methods with one simulation tool poses large challenges. Inverse problems require orders of magnitude larger computer resources, and the development of appropriate theoretical and numerical methods for this is on of the primary aims of this project. Due to the less obvious signatures of geothermally relevant targets, it is also necessary to improve the experimental base for model setup and update by developing new and better methods for some of the key problems in the case of geothermal targets. Among these are the development of methods to estimate

  13. Meeting Report: Moving Upstream—Evaluating Adverse Upstream End Points for Improved Risk Assessment and Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Woodruff, Tracey J.; Zeise, Lauren; Axelrad, Daniel A.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Janssen, Sarah; Miller, Mark; Miller, Gregory G.; Schwartz, Jackie M.; Alexeeff, George; Anderson, Henry; Birnbaum, Linda; Bois, Frederic; Cogliano, Vincent James; Crofton, Kevin; Euling, Susan Y.; Foster, Paul M.D.; Germolec, Dori R.; Gray, Earl; Hattis, Dale B.; Kyle, Amy D.; Luebke, Robert W.; Luster, Michael I.; Portier, Chris; Rice, Deborah C.; Solomon, Gina; Vandenberg, John; Zoeller, R. Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Background Assessing adverse effects from environmental chemical exposure is integral to public health policies. Toxicology assays identifying early biological changes from chemical exposure are increasing our ability to evaluate links between early biological disturbances and subsequent overt downstream effects. A workshop was held to consider how the resulting data inform consideration of an “adverse effect” in the context of hazard identification and risk assessment. Objectives Our objective here is to review what is known about the relationships between chemical exposure, early biological effects (upstream events), and later overt effects (downstream events) through three case studies (thyroid hormone disruption, antiandrogen effects, immune system disruption) and to consider how to evaluate hazard and risk when early biological effect data are available. Discussion Each case study presents data on the toxicity pathways linking early biological perturbations with downstream overt effects. Case studies also emphasize several factors that can influence risk of overt disease as a result from early biological perturbations, including background chemical exposures, underlying individual biological processes, and disease susceptibility. Certain effects resulting from exposure during periods of sensitivity may be irreversible. A chemical can act through multiple modes of action, resulting in similar or different overt effects. Conclusions For certain classes of early perturbations, sufficient information on the disease process is known, so hazard and quantitative risk assessment can proceed using information on upstream biological perturbations. Upstream data will support improved approaches for considering developmental stage, background exposures, disease status, and other factors important to assessing hazard and risk for the whole population. PMID:19057713

  14. Conceptualizing and Re-Evaluating Resilience Across Levels of Risk, Time, and Domains of Competence

    PubMed Central

    Shaw, Daniel S.

    2009-01-01

    This article examines potential theoretical constraints on resilience across levels of risk, time, and domain of outcome. Studies of resilience are reviewed as they relate to the prevalence of resilience across levels of risk (e.g., single life events vs. cumulative risk), time, and domains of adjustment. Based on a thorough review of pertinent literature, we conclude that resilience, as a global construct, appears to be rare at the highest levels of risk, and that resilience may benefit from a narrower conceptualization focusing on specific outcomes at specific timepoints in development. The implication of this conclusion for future research and intervention efforts is then discussed. PMID:18379875

  15. A large-scale evaluation of Risk Matrix 2000 in Scotland.

    PubMed

    Grubin, Don

    2011-12-01

    Risk Matrix 2000 is a statistically derived risk-assessment instrument for use with convicted male sex offenders. It is a core element of the sex offender risk assessments carried out in England, Wales, and Scotland. This study examines its validity in a large cohort of sex offenders released from Scottish prisons. It compares 5-year outcomes with findings from the original Risk Matrix validity sample (a 1979 cohort of sex offenders in England and Wales). The instrument had moderate predictive validity and performed in a similar manner in the two studies in spite of different underlying base rates of reconviction. PMID:21965466

  16. Evaluating Computer-Based Assessment in a Risk-Based Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zakrzewski, Stan; Steven, Christine; Ricketts, Chris

    2009-01-01

    There are three purposes for evaluation: evaluation for action to aid the decision making process, evaluation for understanding to further enhance enlightenment and evaluation for control to ensure compliance to standards. This article argues that the primary function of evaluation in the "Catherine Wheel" computer-based assessment (CBA) cyclic…

  17. Evaluating soil contamination risk impact on land vulnerability and climate change in east Azerbaijan, Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahbazi, Farzin; Anaya-Romero, Maria; de La Rosa, Diego

    2010-05-01

    Increased land degradation is one possible, and important, consequence of global climate change. As reported by IPCC, warming is likely to be well above the global mean in central Asia, the Tibetan Plateau and northern Asia, above the global mean in eastern Asia and South Asia, and similar to the global mean in Southeast and west Asia. Following these variation, agricultural face will abruptly be transformed in Iran which has been located in Middle East, west Asia. During 1951 to 2003 several stations in different climatological zones of Iran reported significant decrease in frost days due to rise in surface temperature. Also, some stations show a decreasing trend in precipitation (Anzali, Tabriz, Zahedan) while others (Mashad, Shiraz) have reported increasing trends. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model named Pantanal within the new MicroLEIS DSS framework is used for assessing limitations for vulnerability of an area about 9000ha located in east Azerbaijan province of Iran is closed to Tabriz. The Pantanal approach is a land vulnerability evaluation model based on three kinds of information: I) monthly meteorological data; II) soil survey data; and III) agricultural management information. The major discussed agro contaminants were phosphorous, nitrogen, heavy metals and pesticides. Climate data such as mean average maximum and minimum temperatures for each month and total annual precipitation for last 20 consecutive years (1986-2006) were collected from Ahar meteorological station. The second scenario is based on projected changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for west Asia for the 2080s. In West Asia, climate change is likely to cause severe water stress in 21st century. In details, the mean temperature (°C) will increase 5.1, 5.6, 6.3 and 5.7 in winter, spring, summer and autumn respectively, in the future scenario at the study area. On the other hand, total precipitation will decrease 11 and 25 percent in winter and

  18. Evaluation of a Pharmacist-Specific Intervention on 30-Day Readmission Rates for High-Risk Patients with Pneumonia

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, Douglas N.; Pinner, Nathan A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Pharmacist interventions have been shown to have an impact on reducing readmission rates, however further research is necessary to target resources to high-risk populations and determine the most effective bundle of interventions. Objective: To evaluate the effect of a pharmacist-bundled intervention on 30-day readmission rates for high-risk patients with pneumonia. Methods: A pilot study with a historical control conducted at a community, teaching-affiliated medical center. Up to 65 selected subjects were included if they had pneumonia and any of the following high-risk criteria: admission within 6 months, at least 5 scheduled home medications, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or heart failure. A retrospective chart review was conducted to compile the historical control group that received usual care between June and November 2013. Patients admitted from December 2013 through March 2014 were reviewed to receive a bundled intervention. The primary outcome was 30-day readmission rates. Risk factors and reasons for readmission, pharmacist clinical interventions, and the time interval between discharge and readmission were also evaluated. Results: A trend toward a reduced 30-day readmission rate was observed in the intervention group (n = 43) compared to those who received usual care (n = 65) (27.9% vs 40.0%; relative risk [RR], 0.6977; 95% CI, 0.3965–1.2278; P = .2119). The most commonly identified high-risk inclusion criteria were having at least 5 scheduled home medications and COPD. The time interval between discharge and readmission did not considerably differ between groups (10.8 vs 10.6 days). Conclusions: The pharmacist-bundled intervention was associated with a reduced 30-day readmission rate for high-risk patients with pneumonia. PMID:26823619

  19. Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program: The Prevalence of Asthma Medication Use During Pregnancy

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, Craig; Joski, Peter; Freiman, Heather C.; Andrade, Susan; Toh, Sengwee; Dublin, Sascha; Cheetham, T. Craig; Cooper, William O.; Pawloski, Pamala A.; Li, De-Kun; Beaton, Sarah J.; Scott, Pamela E.; Hammad, Tarek; Davis, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Background Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases in women of reproductive age, occurring in up to 8% of pregnancies. Objective Assess the prevalence of asthma medication use during pregnancy in a large diverse cohort. Methods We identified women aged 15 to 45 years who delivered a live born infant between 2001 and 2007 across 11 U.S. health plans within the Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program (MEPREP). Using health plans’ administrative and claims data, and birth certificate data, we identified deliveries for which women filled asthma medications from 90 days before pregnancy through delivery. Prevalence (%) was calculated for asthma diagnosis and medication dispensing. Results There were 586,276 infants from 575,632 eligible deliveries in the MEPREP cohort. Asthma prevalence among mothers was 6.7%, increasing from 5.5% in 2001 to 7.8% in 2007. A total of 9.7% (n=55,914) of women were dispensed asthma medications during pregnancy. The overall prevalence of maintenance-only medication, rescue-only medication, and combined maintenance and rescue medication was 0.6%, 6.7%, and 2.4% respectively. The prevalence of maintenance-only use doubled during the study period from 0.4% to 0.8%, while rescue-only use decreased from 7.4% to 5.8%. Conclusions In this large population-based pregnancy cohort, the prevalence of asthma diagnoses increased over time. The dispensing of maintenance-only medication increased over time, while rescue-only medication dispensing decreased over time. PMID:23108737

  20. Evaluation of the appropriate use of commonly prescribed fluoroquinolones and the risk of dysglycemia

    PubMed Central

    Kabbara, Wissam K; Ramadan, Wijdan H; Rahbany, Peggy; Al-Natour, Souhaila

    2015-01-01

    Background Fluoroquinolones are among the most widely prescribed antibiotics. However, concerns about increasing resistant microorganisms and the risk of dysglycemia associated with the use of these agents have emerged. Objective The primary objective of the study was to evaluate the appropriate use of commonly prescribed fluoroquinolones, including appropriate indication, dose, dose adjustment in renal impairment, and duration of treatment. The secondary objective was to investigate the dysglycemic effect of fluoroquinolone use (hypoglycemia and/or hyperglycemia) in diabetic and nondiabetic patients. Methods A prospective observational study at a teaching hospital in Lebanon was conducted over a 6-month period. A total of 118 patients receiving broad-spectrum fluoroquinolones (levofloxacin, ciprofloxacin, and moxifloxacin) were identified. Patients were mainly recruited from internal medicine floors and intensive care units. Results The final percentage for the appropriate indication, dose, and duration of fluoroquinolone therapy was 93.2%, 74.6%, and 57.6%, respectively. A total of 57.1% of the patients did not receive the appropriate dose adjustment according to their level of renal impairment. In addition, dysglycemia occurred in both diabetic and nondiabetic patients. Dysglycemia was more frequently encountered with ciprofloxacin (50.0%), followed by levofloxacin (42.4%) and moxifloxacin (7.6%). Hyperglycemia was more common than hypoglycemia in all groups. The highest incidence of hyperglycemia occurred with levofloxacin (70.0%), followed by ciprofloxacin (39.0%) and moxifloxacin (33.3%). In contrast, hypoglycemia did not occur in the ciprofloxacin group, but it was more common with moxifloxacin (11.1%) and levofloxacin (6.0%). Conclusion The major clinical interventions for the future will adjust the dose and duration of therapy with commonly prescribed fluoroquinolones. The incidence of hypoglycemia was less common than hyperglycemia. PMID:25960658

  1. Sediment and water toxicity evaluations for the Clinch River ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Gonzalez, A.M.; Phipps, T.L.; Kszos, L.A.

    1995-12-31

    The sediment and surface water at three sites in the Clinch River and six sites in Poplar Creek were evaluated by means of toxicity tests with aquatic organisms. The results of these tests were used as one of the lines of evidence in an assessment of ecological risk due to contaminants, transported from the Oak Ridge Reservation, to the off-site sediment and water environment. Results from a suite of six whole sediment, elutriate and pore water toxicity tests were summarized in terms of survival (Hyalella azteca, Daphnia magna, Anodonta imbecillis, Ceriodaphnia dubia), fecundity (Daphnia magna) or light output reduction (Microtox{reg_sign}). Results from the water toxicity tests were summarized in terms of reduction in survival or fecundity of C. dubia, and survival or growth of Pimephales promelas. Toxicity test results (covering a period of about 1 6 months) showed little difference between reference site media and media from sites of concern. They also showed no strong spatial or temporal response pattern. These results are further supported by the presence of indigenous Chironomus and Hexagenia spp. in the sediment samples. Toxicity results will be discussed with respect to three issues. Two criteria were used to define significant differences between reference sites and sites of concern: a difference of 20%, and statistical significance at a = 0.05. Secondly, the relevance of comparing mean responses to control vs. reference site will be discussed. Lastly, toxicity results are consistent with site characterization information which suggest that contaminants of concern in sediment are buried under clean sediment, effectively isolating the material from potential human or ecological exposure.

  2. Mercury and selenium intake by seafood from the Ionian Sea: A risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Copat, Chiara; Vinceti, Marco; D'Agati, Maria Grazia; Arena, Giovanni; Mauceri, Valeria; Grasso, Alfina; Fallico, Roberto; Sciacca, Salvatore; Ferrante, Margherita

    2014-02-01

    The subject of the present study is the evaluation of the concentrations of mercury (Hg) and selenium (Se) in fish and shellfish from the Gulf of Catania (Ionian Sea) and the assessment of related risk-based consumption limits per single contaminant in adults and children. In contrast to the potential harm from Hg, Se is an essential element that is normally found in high levels in seafood. If the amount of Hg is high enough, it could bind Se and irreversibly inhibit selenium-dependent enzymes. Thus, adequate levels of Se need to be available to replace the amount of Se lost to Hg sequestration, thereby maintaining normal selenoprotein synthesis. Hg analysis was conducted using a flow injection analysis system coupled with an atomic adsorption spectrometer, and Se analysis was conducted using an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Of the trace elements investigated, only Hg has a limit set by the European Community for human consumption, and this was never exceeded. Nevertheless, based on Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) over 1, and on the Estimated Daily Intake per meal (EDIm) higher than the Provisional Tolerable Intake (PTI) suggested by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additive (JECFA), Hg oral exposure derived from consumption of the benthonic fish and of the bigger pelagic fish species analyzed, could follow the occurrence of systemic effects. Se was found always in molar excess respect to Hg in all pelagic fish and in the shellfish, nearly equimolar in the benthonic fish. Determining the evidence that foods, such as pelagic fish, with high molar excess of Se, could contribute to replace the amount of Se bound to Hg and thereby maintaining normal selenoprotein synthesis, is useful for a better understanding of the seafood safety. PMID:24433795

  3. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk.

    PubMed

    Manbeck, Harvey B; Hofstetter, Daniel W; Murphy, Dennis J; Puri, Virendra M

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess (1) how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2) from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3) whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated. PMID:27303661

  4. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk

    PubMed Central

    Manbeck, Harvey B.; Hofstetter, Daniel W.; Murphy, Dennis J.; Puri, Virendra M.

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay an