Sample records for risk evaluation euroscore
-
Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang
2018-01-01
To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age <70) used for comparison. The outcome of interest in this study was in-hospital mortality. The entire cohort and subsets of patients were analyzed. The calibration and discrimination in total and in subsets were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow and the C statistics respectively. Institutional overall mortality was 2.52%. The expected mortality rates of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.
-
Atashi, Alireza; Amini, Shahram; Tashnizi, Mohammad Abbasi; Moeinipour, Ali Asghar; Aazami, Mathias Hossain; Tohidnezhad, Fariba; Ghasemi, Erfan; Eslami, Saeid
2018-01-01
Introduction The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is a prediction model which maps 18 predictors to a 30-day post-operative risk of death concentrating on accurate stratification of candidate patients for cardiac surgery. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the performance of the EuroSCORE II risk-analysis predictions among patients who underwent heart surgeries in one area of Iran. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect the required variables for all consecutive patients who underwent heart surgeries at Emam Reza hospital, Northeast Iran between 2014 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify covariates which significantly contribute to higher EuroSCORE II in our population. External validation was performed by comparing the real and expected mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination assessment. Also, Brier Score and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to show the overall performance and calibration level, respectively. Results Two thousand five hundred eight one (59.6% males) were included. The observed mortality rate was 3.3%, but EuroSCORE II had a prediction of 4.7%. Although the overall performance was acceptable (Brier score=0.047), the model showed poor discriminatory power by AUC=0.667 (sensitivity=61.90, and specificity=66.24) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P<0.01). Conclusion Our study showed that the EuroSCORE II discrimination power is less than optimal for outcome prediction and less accurate for resource allocation programs. It highlights the need for recalibration of this risk stratification tool aiming to improve post cardiac surgery outcome predictions in Iran. PMID:29617500
-
Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji
2014-04-01
The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P < 0.0001) of the mortality in the high-risk group, especially by the logistic EuroSCORE. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all
-
Madeira, Sérgio; Rodrigues, Ricardo; Tralhão, António; Santos, Miguel; Almeida, Carla; Marques, Marta; Ferreira, Jorge; Raposo, Luís; Neves, José; Mendes, Miguel
2016-02-01
The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) has been established as a tool for assisting decision-making in surgical patients and as a benchmark for quality assessment. Infective endocarditis often requires surgical treatment and is associated with high mortality. This study was undertaken to (i) validate both versions of the EuroSCORE, the older logistic EuroSCORE I and the recently developed EuroSCORE II and to compare their performances; (ii) identify predictors other than those included in the EuroSCORE models that might further improve their performance. We retrospectively studied 128 patients from a single-centre registry who underwent heart surgery for active infective endocarditis between January 2007 and November 2014. Binary logistic regression was used to find independent predictors of mortality and to create a new prediction model. Discrimination and calibration of models were assessed by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The observed perioperative mortality was 16.4% (n = 21). The median EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II were 13.9% interquartile range (IQ) (7.0-35.0) and 6.6% IQ (3.5-18.2), respectively. Discriminative power was numerically higher for EuroSCORE II {area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.91]} than for EuroSCORE I [0.75 (95% CI, 0.66-0.85), P = 0.09]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good calibration for EuroSCORE II (P = 0.08) but not for EuroSCORE I (P = 0.04). EuroSCORE I tended to over-predict and EuroSCORE II to under-predict mortality. Among the variables known to be associated with greater infective endocarditis severity, only prosthetic valve infective endocarditis remained an independent predictor of mortality [odds ratio (OR) 6.6; 95% CI, 1.1-39.5; P = 0.04]. The new model including the EuroSCORE II variables and variables known to be associated with greater infective endocarditis severity showed an AUC of 0
-
Ranucci, Marco; Castelvecchio, Serenella; Menicanti, Lorenzo; Frigiola, Alessandro; Pelissero, Gabriele
2010-03-01
The European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) is currently used in many institutions and is considered a reference tool in many countries. We hypothesised that too many variables were included in the EuroSCORE using limited patient series. We tested different models using a limited number of variables. A total of 11150 adult patients undergoing cardiac operations at our institution (2001-2007) were retrospectively analysed. The 17 risk factors composing the EuroSCORE were separately analysed and ranked for accuracy of prediction of hospital mortality. Seventeen models were created by progressively including one factor at a time. The models were compared for accuracy with a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and area under the curve (AUC) evaluation. Calibration was tested with Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Clinical performance was assessed by comparing the predicted with the observed mortality rates. The best accuracy (AUC 0.76) was obtained using a model including only age, left ventricular ejection fraction, serum creatinine, emergency operation and non-isolated coronary operation. The EuroSCORE AUC (0.75) was not significantly different. Calibration and clinical performance were better in the five-factor model than in the EuroSCORE. Only in high-risk patients were 12 factors needed to achieve a good performance. Including many factors in multivariable logistic models increases the risk for overfitting, multicollinearity and human error. A five-factor model offers the same level of accuracy but demonstrated better calibration and clinical performance. Models with a limited number of factors may work better than complex models when applied to a limited number of patients. Copyright (c) 2009 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Hickey, Graeme L.; Grant, Stuart W.; Murphy, Gavin J.; Bhabra, Moninder; Pagano, Domenico; McAllister, Katherine; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben
2013-01-01
OBJECTIVES Progressive loss of calibration of the original EuroSCORE models has necessitated the introduction of the EuroSCORE II model. Poor model calibration has important implications for clinical decision-making and risk adjustment of governance analyses. The objective of this study was to explore the reasons for the calibration drift of the logistic EuroSCORE. METHODS Data from the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland database were analysed for procedures performed at all National Health Service and some private hospitals in England and Wales between April 2001 and March 2011. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. EuroSCORE risk factors, overall model calibration and discrimination were assessed over time. RESULTS A total of 317 292 procedures were included. Over the study period, mean age at surgery increased from 64.6 to 67.2 years. The proportion of procedures that were isolated coronary artery bypass grafts decreased from 67.5 to 51.2%. In-hospital mortality fell from 4.1 to 2.8%, but the mean logistic EuroSCORE increased from 5.6 to 7.6%. The logistic EuroSCORE remained a good discriminant throughout the study period (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve between 0.79 and 0.85), but calibration (observed-to-expected mortality ratio) fell from 0.76 to 0.37. Inadequate adjustment for decreasing baseline risk affected calibration considerably. DISCUSSIONS Patient risk factors and case-mix in adult cardiac surgery change dynamically over time. Models like the EuroSCORE that are developed using a ‘snapshot’ of data in time do not account for this and can subsequently lose calibration. It is therefore important to regularly revalidate clinical prediction models. PMID:23152436
-
Osnabrugge, Ruben L; Speir, Alan M; Head, Stuart J; Fonner, Clifford E; Fonner, Edwin; Kappetein, A Pieter; Rich, Jeffrey B
2014-09-01
Validation studies of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) have been limited to European datasets. Therefore, the aims of this study were to assess the performance of EuroSCORE II in a large multicentre US database, and compare it with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM). In addition, implications for patient selection for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were explored. EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM were calculated for 50 588 patients from a multi-institutional statewide database of all cardiac surgeries performed since 2003. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), observed vs expected (O:E) ratios and calibration plots. Analyses were performed for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (n = 40 871), aortic valve replacement (AVR) (n = 4107), AVR + CABG (n = 3480), mitral valve (MV) replacement (n = 1071) and MV repair (n = 1059). The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 2.1%. EuroSCORE II was outperformed by the STS-PROM in the overall cohort with regard to discrimination (AUC = 0.77 vs 0.81, respectively; P < 0.001) and calibration (O:E = 0.68 vs 0.80, respectively). Discrimination for CABG was worse with EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.77 vs STS-PROM: 0.81, P < 0.001). For other procedures discrimination was similar: AVR (AUC = 0.71 vs STS-PROM: 0.74, P = 0.40), AVR + CABG (AUC = 0.72 vs STS-PROM: 0.74, P = 0.47), MV repair (AUC = 0.82 vs STS-PROM: 0.86, P = 0.55) and MV replacement (AUC = 0.78 vs STS-PROM: 0.79, P = 0.69). Calibration of EuroSCORE II was worse for CABG (O:E = 0.68 vs STS-PROM: 0.80), similar in AVR + CABG (O:E = 0.76 vs STS-PROM: 0.70) and MV repair (O:E = 0.64 vs STS-PROM: 0.67), while EuroSCORE II may be more accurate in AVR (O:E = 0.96 vs STS-PROM: 0.76). Performance of both models improved when only recent cases (after 1 January 2008) were used. Ongoing TAVI trials aimed at patients with an estimated 4
-
Chhor, Vibol; Merceron, Sybille; Ricome, Sylvie; Baron, Gabriel; Daoud, Omar; Dilly, Marie-Pierre; Aubier, Benjamin; Provenchere, Sophie; Philip, Ivan
2010-08-01
Although results of cardiac surgery are improving, octogenarians have a higher procedure-related mortality and more complications with increased length of stay in ICU. Consequently, careful evaluation of perioperative risk seems necessary. The aims of our study were to assess and compare the performances of EuroSCORE and CARE score in the prediction of perioperative mortality among octogenarians undergoing aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis and to compare these predictive performances with those obtained in younger patients. This retrospective study included all consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery in our institution between November 2005 and December 2007. For each patient, risk assessment for mortality was performed using logistic EuroSCORE, additive EuroSCORE and CARE score. The main outcome measure was early postoperative mortality. Predictive performances of these scores were assessed by calibration and discrimination using goodness-of-fit test and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, respectively. During this 2-year period, we studied 2117 patients, among whom 134/211 octogenarians and 335/1906 nonoctogenarians underwent an aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis. When considering patients with aortic stenosis, discrimination was poor in octogenarians and the difference from nonoctogenarians was significant for each score (0.58, 0.59 and 0.56 vs. 0.82, 0.81 and 0.77 for additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and CARE score in octogenarians and nonoctogenarians, respectively, P < 0.05). Moreover, in the whole cohort, logistic EuroSCORE significantly overestimated mortality among octogenarians. Predictive performances of these scores are poor in octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery, especially aortic valve replacement. Risk assessment and therapeutic decisions in octogenarians should not be made with these scoring systems alone.
-
Fernández-Hidalgo, N; Ferreria-González, I; Marsal, J R; Ribera, A; Aznar, M L; de Alarcón, A; García-Cabrera, E; Gálvez-Acebal, J; Sánchez-Espín, G; Reguera-Iglesias, J M; De La Torre-Lima, J; Lomas, J M; Hidalgo-Tenorio, C; Vallejo, N; Miranda, B; Santos-Ortega, A; Castro, M A; Tornos, P; García-Dorado, D; Almirante, B
2018-03-03
To simplify and optimize the ability of EuroSCORE I and II to predict early mortality after surgery for infective endocarditis (IE). Multicentre retrospective study (n = 775). Simplified scores, eliminating irrelevant variables, and new specific scores, adding specific IE variables, were created. The performance of the original, recalibrated and specific EuroSCOREs was assessed by Brier score, C-statistic and calibration plot in bootstrap samples. The Net Reclassification Index was quantified. Recalibrated scores including age, previous cardiac surgery, critical preoperative state, New York Heart Association >I, and emergent surgery (EuroSCORE I and II); renal failure and pulmonary hypertension (EuroSCORE I); and urgent surgery (EuroSCORE II) performed better than the original EuroSCOREs (Brier original and recalibrated: EuroSCORE I: 0.1770 and 0.1667; EuroSCORE II: 0.2307 and 0.1680). Performance improved with the addition of fistula, staphylococci and mitral location (EuroSCORE I and II) (Brier specific: EuroSCORE I 0.1587, EuroSCORE II 0.1592). Discrimination improved in specific models (C-statistic original, recalibrated and specific: EuroSCORE I: 0.7340, 0.7471 and 0.7728; EuroSCORE II: 0.7442, 0.7423 and 0.7700). Calibration improved in both EuroSCORE I models (intercept 0.295, slope 0.829 (original); intercept -0.094, slope 0.888 (recalibrated); intercept -0.059, slope 0.925 (specific)) but only in specific EuroSCORE II model (intercept 2.554, slope 1.114 (original); intercept -0.260, slope 0.703 (recalibrated); intercept -0.053, slope 0.930 (specific)). Net Reclassification Index was 5.1% and 20.3% for the specific EuroSCORE I and II CONCLUSIONS: The use of simplified EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II models in IE with the addition of specific variables may lead to simpler and more accurate models. Copyright © 2018 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico
2014-12-01
A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous
-
Duthie, Fiona A I; McGeehan, Paul; Hill, Sharleen; Phelps, Richard; Kluth, David C; Zamvar, Vipin; Hughes, Jeremy; Ferenbach, David A
2014-01-01
Acute kidney injury (AKI) following cardiac surgery is a complication associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. We compared staging systems for the diagnosis of AKI after cardiac surgery, and assessed pre-operative factors predictive of post-operative AKI. Clinical data, surgical risk scores, procedure and clinical outcome were obtained on all 4,651 patients undergoing cardiac surgery to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh between April 2006 and March 2011, of whom 4,572 had sufficient measurements of creatinine before and after surgery to permit inclusion and analysis. The presence of AKI was assessed using the AKIN and RIFLE criteria. By AKIN criteria, 12.4% of the studied population developed AKI versus 6.5% by RIFLE criteria. Any post-operation AKI was associated with increased mortality from 2.2 to 13.5% (relative risk 7.0, p < 0.001), and increased inpatient stay from a median of 7 (IQR 4) to 9 (IQR 11) days (p < 0.05). Patients identified by AKIN, but not RIFLE, had a mean peak creatinine rise of 34% from baseline and had a significantly lower mortality compared to RIFLE-'Risk' AKI (mortality 6.1 vs. 9.7%; p < 0.05). Pre-operative creatinine, diabetes, NYHA Class IV dyspnoea and EuroSCORE-1 (a surgical risk score) all predicted subsequent AKI on multivariate analysis. EuroSCORE-1 outperformed any single demographic factor in predicting post-operative AKI risk, equating to an 8% increase in relative risk for each additional point. AKI after cardiac surgery is associated with delayed discharge and high mortality rates. The AKIN and RIFLE criteria identify patients at a range of AKI severity levels suitable for trial recruitment. The utility of EuroSCORE as a risk stratification tool to identify high AKI-risk subjects for prospective intervention merits further study.
-
Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril
2017-01-01
Background The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. Methods and finding We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755–0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691–0.783) and 0.742 (0.698–0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. Conclusions According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction. PMID:28060903
-
Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril
2017-01-01
The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755-0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691-0.783) and 0.742 (0.698-0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction.
-
Siregar, Sabrina; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Versteegh, Michel I M; Noyez, Luc; ter Burg, Willem Jan P P; Bots, Michiel L; van der Graaf, Yolanda; van Herwerden, Lex A
2013-03-01
Upcoding or undercoding of risk factors could affect the benchmarking of risk-adjusted mortality rates. The aim was to investigate the effect of misclassification of risk factors on the benchmarking of mortality rates after cardiac surgery. A prospective cohort was used comprising all adult cardiac surgery patients in all 16 cardiothoracic centers in The Netherlands from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009. A random effects model, including the logistic European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) was used to benchmark the in-hospital mortality rates. We simulated upcoding and undercoding of 5 selected variables in the patients from 1 center. These patients were selected randomly (nondifferential misclassification) or by the EuroSCORE (differential misclassification). In the random patients, substantial misclassification was required to affect benchmarking: a 1.8-fold increase in prevalence of the 4 risk factors changed an underperforming center into an average performing one. Upcoding of 1 variable required even more. When patients with the greatest EuroSCORE were upcoded (ie, differential misclassification), a 1.1-fold increase was sufficient: moderate left ventricular function from 14.2% to 15.7%, poor left ventricular function from 8.4% to 9.3%, recent myocardial infarction from 7.9% to 8.6%, and extracardiac arteriopathy from 9.0% to 9.8%. Benchmarking using risk-adjusted mortality rates can be manipulated by misclassification of the EuroSCORE risk factors. Misclassification of random patients or of single variables will have little effect. However, limited upcoding of multiple risk factors in high-risk patients can greatly influence benchmarking. To minimize "gaming," the prevalence of all risk factors should be carefully monitored. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Piazza, Nicolo; Wenaweser, Peter; van Gameren, Menno; Pilgrim, Thomas; Tzikas, Apostolos; Tsikas, Apostolos; Otten, Amber; Nuis, Rutger; Onuma, Yoshinobu; Cheng, Jin Ming; Kappetein, A Pieter; Boersma, Eric; Juni, Peter; de Jaegere, Peter; Windecker, Stephan; Serruys, Patrick W
2010-02-01
Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or "inoperable" patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% +/- 13.9% vs STS 6.7% +/- 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES > or =15%, 16% had an STS > or =10%, and 40% had an LES > or =20% or STS > or =10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights
-
Comparison of four contemporary risk models at predicting mortality after aortic valve replacement.
Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Choi, David H M; Stewart, Ralph; Gamble, Greg; Haydock, David; Ruygrok, Peter
2015-02-01
Risk stratification for aortic valve replacement (AVR) is desirable given the increased demand for intervention and the introduction of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. We compared the prognostic utility of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, and an Australasian model (Aus-AVR score) for AVR. We retrospectively calculated the 4 risk scores for patients undergoing isolated AVR at Auckland City Hospital from 2005 to 2012 and assessed their discrimination and calibration for short- and long-term mortality. A total of 620 patients were followed up for 3.8 ± 2.4 years, with an operative mortality of 2.9% (n = 18). The mean EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, STS score, and Aus-AVR score was 8.7% ± 8.3%, 3.8% ± 4.7%, 2.8% ± 2.7%, and 3.2% ± 4.8%, respectively. The corresponding C-statistics for operative mortality were 0.752 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.652-0.852), 0.711 (95% CI, 0.607-0.815), 0.716 (95% CI, 0.593-0.837), and 0.684 (95% CI, 0.557-0.811). The corresponding Hosmer-Lemeshow test P and chi-square values for calibration were .007 and 21.1, .125 and 12.6, .753 and 5.0, and .468 and 7.7. The corresponding Brier scores were 0.0348, 0.0278, 0.0276, and 0.0294. Independent predictors of operative mortality included critical preoperative state, atrial fibrillation, extracardiac arteriopathy, and mitral stenosis. The log-rank test P values were all <.001 for mortality during follow-up for all 4 scores, stratified by quintile. All 4 risk scores discriminated operative mortality after isolated AVR. The EuroSCORE had poor calibration, overestimating operative mortality, although the other 3 scores fitted well with contemporary outcomes. The STS score was the best calibrated in the highest quintile of operative risk. Copyright © 2015 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Wiebe, Jens; Franke, Jennifer; Lubos, Edith; Boekstegers, Peter; Schillinger, Wolfgang; Ouarrak, Taoufik; May, Andreas E; Eggebrecht, Holger; Kuck, Karl-Heinz; Baldus, Stephan; Senges, Jochen; Sievert, Horst
2014-10-01
To evaluate in-hospital and short-term outcomes of percutaneous mitral valve repair according to patients' logistic EuroSCORE (logEuroSCORE) in a multicenter registry The logEuroSCORE is an established tool to predict the risk of mortality during cardiac surgery. In high-risk patients percutaneous mitral valve repair with the MitraClip system represents a less-invasive alternative Data from 1002 patients, who underwent percutaneous mitral valve repair with the MitraClip system, were analyzed in the German Transcatheter Mitral Valve Interventions (TRAMI) Registry. A logEuroSCORE (mortality risk in %) ≥ 20 was considered high risk Of all patients, 557 (55.6%) had a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20. Implantation of the MitraClip was successful in 95.5 % (942/986) patients. Moderate residual mitral valve regurgitation was more often detected in patients with a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20 (23.8% vs. 17.1%, respectively, P < 0.05). In patients with a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20 the procedural complication rate was 8.9% (vs. 6.4, n.s.) and the in-hospital MACCE rate 4.9% (vs. 1.4% P < 0.01). The in-hospital mortality rate in patients with a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20 and logEuroSCORE < 20 was 4.3 and 1.1%, respectively (P ≤ 0.01) CONCLUSION: Percutaneous mitral valve repair with the MitraClip system is feasible in patients with a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20 with similar procedural results compared to patients with lower predicted risk. Although mortality was four times higher than in patients with logEuroSCORE < 20, mortality in high risk patients was lower than predicted. In those with a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20, moderate residual mitral valve regurgitation was more frequent. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
-
Etienne, Pierre Yves; Papadatos, Spiridon; Glineur, David; Mairy, Yves; El Khoury, Elie; Noirhomme, Philippe; El Khoury, Gebrine
2007-08-01
Preoperative intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) counterpulsation has better outcomes compared with perioperative or postoperative insertion in critical patients, and off-pump surgical procedures have been advocated to reduce mortality in high-risk patients. However, some surgeons are reluctant to perform beating heart operations in specific patient subgroups, including those with unstable angina or patients with low ejection fraction, because of their possible perioperative hemodynamic instability. We evaluated combined beating heart procedures and preoperative IABP in selected high-risk patients and compared our results with the predictive European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) model. Fifty-five high-risk patients with a mean logistic EuroSCORE of 24 were prospectively enrolled and then divided into emergency (group 1, n = 25) and nonemergency (group 2, n = 30) groups. IABP was inserted immediately before operation in group 1 and the day before the procedure in group 2. Compared with the EuroSCORE predictive model, a dramatic decrease in mortality occurred in both groups. Group I predicted mortality was 36.8%, and observed was 20%; and group 2 predicted mortality was 15.2% and observed was 0%. No specific complications from the use of IABP were encountered. During mid-term (2 years) follow-up, no patient died from a cardiac cause or required percutaneous coronary intervention or subsequent reoperation due to incomplete revascularization. The combined use of preoperative intraaortic counterpulsation and beating heart intervention allows complete revascularization in high-risk patients with a important reduction in operative mortality and excellent mid-term results.
-
Comparison of Risk Scores for Prediction of Complications following Aortic Valve Replacement.
Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Choi, David Hyun-Min; Haydock, David; Gamble, Greg; Stewart, Ralph; Ruygrok, Peter
2015-06-01
Risk models play an important role in stratification of patients for cardiac surgery, but their prognostic utilities for post-operative complications are rarely studied. We compared the EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Score and an Australasian model (Aus-AVR Score) for predicting morbidities after aortic valve replacement (AVR), and also evaluated seven STS complications models in this context. We retrospectively calculated risk scores for 620 consecutive patients undergoing isolated AVR at Auckland City Hospital during 2005-2012, assessing their discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Amongst mortality scores, the EuroSCORE was the best at discriminating stroke (c-statistic 0.845); the EuroSCORE II at deep sternal wound infection (c=0.748); and the STS Score at composite morbidity or mortality (c=0.666), renal failure (c=0.634), ventilation>24 hours (c=0.732), return to theatre (c=0.577) and prolonged hospital stay >14 days post-operatively (c=0.707). The individual STS complications models had a marginally higher c-statistic (c=0.634-0.846) for all complications except mediastinitis, and had good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value 0.123-0.915) for all complications. The STS Score was best overall at discriminating post-operative complications and their composite for AVR. All STS complications models except for deep sternal wound infection had good discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Copyright © 2014 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Off-pump coronary surgery: surgical strategy for the high-risk patient.
Van Belleghem, Y; Caes, F; Maene, L; Van Overbeke, H; Moerman, A; Van Nooten, G
2003-02-01
In a retrospective study, we compared two groups of consecutive patients operated by the same team during the year 2000 for coronary artery disease with the use of extracorporeal circulation (group 1, n=230) or on the beating heart using the Octopus II plus stabiliser (group 2, n=228). High-risk patients were identified by a EuroSCORE plus 6. EuroSCORE definitions and predicted risk models were utilized to compare the variables of the groups. There were no significant differences between the preoperative variables of the groups in age, gender, left ventricular function, diabetes and peripheral vascular and renal disease as is indicated by the Euroscore (resp. 4.7/5.1 p=0.107). Calcification of the ascending aorta and chronic obstructive lung disease were statistically significant more prevalent in the beating heart group. No differences in preoperative variables in the high-risk patients group (Euroscore 8.5/8.1 p=0.356) except for calcification of the ascending aorta. All patients underwent a full revascularisation through a midline sternotomy. Significant more distal anastomoses were performed in group 1 (3.7 per patient (1-6)) with regard to group 2 (2.9 per patient (1-6)). Anesthesia, postoperative treatment and follow up were equal for both groups. A significant lower incidence of atrial fibrillation (p=0.010), shorter ICU stay (p=0.031) and renal insufficiency (p=0.033) was reported in group 2. In the low risk group, we could not diagnose any difference between the two groups, except for atrial fibrillation. The benefits of the beating heart surgery however were more pronounced in the high-risk patient as is indicated by a significant reduction of the ICU stay by 1 day (3.5d/2.5d (p=0.028)), better preservation of the renal function (p=0.017) and a significant reduction of the length of hospital stay by more than two days (p=0.040). A lower incidence of atrial fibrillation, however not significant. In our experience, beating heart surgery is a safe
-
Codner, Pablo; Malick, Waqas; Kouz, Remi; Patel, Amisha; Chen, Cheng-Han; Terre, Juan; Landes, Uri; Vahl, Torsten Peter; George, Isaac; Nazif, Tamim; Kirtane, Ajay J; Khalique, Omar K; Hahn, Rebecca T; Leon, Martin B; Kodali, Susheel
2018-05-08
Risk assessment tools currently used to predict mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were designed for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aim to assess the accuracy of the TAVI dedicated American College of Cardiology / Transcatheter Valve Therapies (ACC/TVT) risk score in predicting mortality outcomes. Consecutive patients (n=1038) undergoing TAVI at a single institution from 2014 to 2016 were included. The ACC/TVT registry mortality risk score, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons - Patient Reported Outcomes (STS-PROM) score and the EuroSCORE II were calculated for all patients. In hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The ACC/TVT risk stratification tool scored higher for patients who died in-hospital than in those who survived the index hospitalization (6.4 ± 4.6 vs. 3.5 ± 1.6, p = 0.03; respectively). The ACC/TVT score showed a high level of discrimination, C-index for in-hospital mortality 0.74, 95% CI [0.59 - 0.88]. There were no significant differences between the performance of the ACC/TVT registry risk score, the EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM for in hospital and 30-day mortality rates. The ACC/TVT registry risk model is a dedicated tool to aid in the prediction of in-hospital mortality risk after TAVI.
-
Amonn, Kathrin; Stortecky, Stefan; Brinks, Henriette; Gahl, Brigitta; Windecker, Stephan; Wenaweser, Peter; Carrel, Thierry; Huber, Christoph
2013-01-01
To compare health-related quality of life (QoL) in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation via transapical access (TA TAVI) with patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). One hundred and forty-four high-risk patients referred for aortic valve replacement underwent TAVI screening and were assigned to either TA TAVI (n = 51, age 79.7 ± 9.2 years, logistic EuroSCORE 26.5 ± 16.1%, 51% males) or SAVR (n = 93, age 81.1 ± 5.3 years, logistic EuroSCORE 12.1 ± 9.3%, 42% males) by the interdisciplinary heart team. QoL was assessed using the Short Form 36 (SF-36) Health Survey Questionnaire and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Furthermore, current living conditions and the degree of independence at home were evaluated. Patients undergoing TA TAVI were at higher risk as assessed by EuroSCORE (26.5 ± 16 vs. 12.1 ± 9, P < 0.001) and STS score (6.7 ± 4 vs. 4.4 ± 3, P < 0.001) compared with SAVR patients. At the 30-day follow-up, the rate of mortality was similar and amounted to 7.8% for TA TAVI and 7.5% for SAVR patients and raised to 25.5% in TA TAVI and 18.3% in SAVR patients after a follow-up period of 15 ± 10 months. Assessment of QoL revealed no differences in terms of anxiety and depression between TA TAVI and SAVR patients. The SF-36 mental health metascore was similar in both groups (65.6 ± 19 vs. 68.8 ± 22, P = 0.29), while a significant difference was observed in the physical health metascore (49.7 ± 21 vs. 62.0 ± 21, P = 0.015). After adjustment for baseline characteristics, this difference disappeared. However, every added point in the preoperative risk assessment with the STS score decreased the SF-36 physical health dimension by two raw points at the follow-up assessment. Selected high-risk patients undergoing TAVI by using a transapical access achieve similar clinical outcomes and QoL compared with patients undergoing SAVR. Increased STS scores predict worse QoL outcomes.
-
Ciuca, Cristina; Fortuna, Daniela; Ferrari, Susy; Salizzoni, Stefano; Grisoglio, Enrica; Punta, Giuseppe; Del Ponte, Stefano; Aranzulla, Tiziana Claudia; Gabbieri, Davide; Gandolfo, Caterina; Dispensa, Flavia; Vecchio Verderame, Lavinia; Tamburino, Corrado; Caruso, Cinzia; Grossi, Claudio; Mikus, Elisa; Guiducci, Vincenzo; Violini, Roberto; Rongoni, Silvia; Pandolfi, Claudia; Moretti, Carolina; De Palma, Rossana; Chattat, Rabih; Savini, Carlo; Marzocchi, Antonio; Saia, Francesco
2016-12-01
The impact of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) or surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) on cognitive status and quality of life in high-risk patients has been incompletely investigated. We conducted a prospective, multicenter study including all patients treated with TAVI and high-risk patients undergoing AVR (age ≥80 years or logistic EuroSCORE ≥15%) at participating centers. Multidimensional geriatric evaluation including Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), EuroQol 5D (EQ5D) and Minnesota Living With Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ) were performed at baseline and at 3- and 12-month follow-up. A total of 518 patients (151 AVR and 367 TAVI) were enrolled in 10 Italian institutions. Patients receiving AVR were older (82.7 ± 2.4 years), with a lower logistic EuroSCORE (12.5 ± 7.1%) as compared with TAVI patients (81.5 ± 6.2 years and 19.6 ± 14.0%, respectively, p=0.001 and p<0.001). Overall, 35.5% of patients showed some degree of cognitive impairment at baseline, with no differences between groups. No significant changes in the cognitive status were observed between baseline and follow-up and between groups at any time point. TAVI patients had a lower quality of life at baseline as compared with AVR patients. Generic and heart failure-related quality of life improved significantly after either procedure. In high-risk patients, both TAVI and AVR are associated with a significant improvement of quality of life up to 1 year without a detrimental effect on cognitive function.
-
Sheriff, Mohammed J; Mouline, Omar; Hsu, Chijen; Grieve, Stuart M; Wilson, Michael K; Bannon, Paul G; Vallely, Michael P; Puranik, Rajesh
2016-06-01
The euroSCORE II is a widely used pre-coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CAGS) risk score, but its predictive power lacks the specificity to predict outcomes in high-risk patients (
euroSCORE II (>16) and left ventricular (LV) dysfunction (<40%) based on 2D-echocardiography who underwent CAGS and in whom CMRI (1.5T) was performed preoperatively were retrospectively studied. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging parameters were assessed in patients who either had complications immediately post-surgery (n=35), six weeks post-surgery (n=20) or were uncomplicated. The average age of patients recruited was 69±5 years with high euroSCORE II (22±4) and low 2D-echocardiography LV ejection fraction (38%±2%). Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging results demonstrated that those with immediate complications had higher LV scar/infarct burden as a proportion of LV mass (17±3% vs 10±3%; p=0.04) with lower circumferential relaxation index (2.5±0.46 vs 2.8±0.56; p=0.05) compared to those with no complications. Early mortality from surgery was 17% (n=9) and was associated with lower RV stroke volume (55±12 vs 68±18; p=0.03) and higher LV infarct scar/burden (18±2% vs 10±2%, p=0.04). Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging showed patients with complications at six weeks post-surgery had higher LV scar/infarct burden (14.5±2% vs 6.8±2%, p=0.03) compared to those without complications. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging preoperative LV and RV parameters are valuable in assessing the likelihood of successful outcomes from CAGS in high-risk patients with LV dysfunction. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. -
Benefits of off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting in high-risk patients.
Marui, Akira; Okabayashi, Hitoshi; Komiya, Tatsuhiko; Tanaka, Shiro; Furukawa, Yutaka; Kita, Toru; Kimura, Takeshi; Sakata, Ryuzo
2012-09-11
The benefits of off-pump coronary artery bypass graft (OPCAB) compared with conventional on-pump coronary artery bypass graft (CCAB) remain controversial. Thus, it is important to investigate which patient subgroups may benefit the most from OPCAB rather than CCAB. Among the patients undergoing first coronary revascularization enrolled in the CREDO-Kyoto Registry (a registry of first-time percutaneous coronary intervention and coronary artery bypass graft patients in Japan), 2468 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft were entered into the study (mean age, 67 ± 9 years). Predicted risk of operative mortality (PROM) of each patient was calculated by logistic EuroSCORE. Patients were divided into tertile based on their PROM. Mortality rates and the incidences of cardiovascular events were compared between CCAB and OPCAB within each PROM tertile using propensity score analysis. A total of 1377 patients received CCAB whereas 1091 received OPCAB. Adjusted 30-day mortality was not significantly different between CCAB and OPCAB patients regardless of their PROM range. However, the odds ratio of 30-day stroke in CCAB compared with OPCAB in the high-risk tertile was 8.30 (95% confidence interval, 2.25-30.7; P<0.01). Regarding long-term outcomes, hazard ratio of stroke in CCAB compared with OPCAB in the high-risk tertile was 1.80 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-3.02; P=0.03). Nevertheless, hazard ratio of overall mortality in the high-risk tertile was 1.44 (95% confidence interval, 0.98-2.11; P=0.06), indicating no statistically significant difference between the 2 procedures. OPCAB as opposed to CCAB is associated with short-term and long-term benefits in stroke prevention in patients at higher risk as estimated by EuroSCORE. No survival benefit of OPCAB was shown regardless of preoperative risk level.
-
Bouma, Wobbe; Wijdh-den Hamer, Inez J; Koene, Bart M; Kuijpers, Michiel; Natour, Ehsan; Erasmus, Michiel E; van der Horst, Iwan C C; Gorman, Joseph H; Gorman, Robert C; Mariani, Massimo A
2014-10-18
Papillary muscle rupture (PMR) is a rare, but often life-threatening mechanical complication of myocardial infarction (MI). Immediate surgical intervention is considered the optimal and most rational treatment for acute PMR, but carries high risks. At this point it is not entirely clear which patients are at highest risk. In this study we sought to determine in-hospital mortality and its predictors for patients who underwent mitral valve surgery for post-MI PMR. Between January 1990 and December 2012, 48 consecutive patients (mean age 64.9 ± 10.8 years) underwent mitral valve repair (n = 10) or replacement (n = 38) for post-MI PMR. Clinical data, echocardiographic data, catheterization data, and surgical reports were reviewed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. Intraoperative mortality was 4.2% and in-hospital mortality was 25.0%. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed the logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Receiver operating characteristics curves showed an optimal cutoff value of 40% for the logistic EuroSCORE (area under the curve 0.85, 95% CI 0.71-1.00, P < 0.001) and of 25% for the EuroSCORE II (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.68-0.99, P = 0.001). After removal of the EuroSCOREs from the model, complete PMR and intraoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) requirement were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The logistic EuroSCORE (optimal cutoff ≥ 40%), EuroSCORE II (optimal cutoff ≥ 25%), complete PMR, and intraoperative IABP requirement are strong independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing mitral valve surgery for post-MI PMR. These predictors may aid in surgical decision making and they may help improve the quality of informed consent.
-
Noyez, L; Biemans, I; Verkroost, M; van Swieten, H
2013-10-01
This study evaluates whether a sedentary lifestyle is an independent predictor for increased mortality after elective cardiac surgery. Three thousand one hundred fifty patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery between January 2007 and June 2012 completed preoperatively the Corpus Christi Heart Project questionnaire concerning physical activity (PA). Based on this questionnaire, 1815 patients were classified as active and 1335 patients were classified as sedentary. The endpoints of the study were hospital mortality and early mortality. The study population had a mean age of 69.7 ± 10.1 (19-95) years and a mean logistic EuroSCORE risk of 5.1 ± 5.6 (0.88-73.8). Sedentary patients were significantly older (p = 0.001), obese (p = 0.001), had a higher EuroSCORE risk (p = 0.001), and a higher percentage of complications. Hospital mortality (1.1 % versus 0.4 % (p = 0.014)) and early mortality (1.5 % versus 0.6 % (p = 0.006)) were significantly higher in the sedentary group compared with the active group. However, a sedentary lifestyle was not identified as an independent predictor for hospital mortality (p = 0.61) or early mortality (p = 0.70). Sedentary patients were older, obese and had a higher EuroSCORE risk. They had significantly more postoperative complications, higher hospital mortality and early mortality. Despite these results, sedentary behaviour could not be identified as an independent predictor for hospital or early mortality.
-
Blood Transfusion and Increased Perioperative Risk in Coronary Artery Bypass Grafts
Campos, Igor C.; Tanganelli, Valessa; Maues, Hugo P.; Coelho, Marcio C. M.; Martins, Fernanda A.; Munhoz, Giovana; Egito, Julyana G. T.; Souza, Hayala C. C.; Giannini, Cássio M. C.; Farsky, Pedro S.
2017-01-01
Objective To correlate blood transfusions and clinical outcomes during hospitalization in coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). Methods Transfusion, clinical and hematological data were collected for 1,378 patients undergoing isolated or combined CABG between January 2011 and December 2012. The effect of blood transfusions was evaluated through multivariate analysis to predict three co-primary outcomes: composite ischemic events, composite infectious complications and hospital mortality. Because higher risk patients receive more transfusions, the hospital mortality outcome was also tested on a stratum of low-risk patients to isolate the effect of preoperative risk on the results. Results The transfusion rate was 63.9%. The use of blood products was associated with a higher incidence of the three coprimary outcomes: composite infectious complications (OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.70 to 4.19; P<0.001), composite ischemic events (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.70 to 3.46; P<0.001) and hospital mortality (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.53 to 6.13; P<0.001). When only patients with logistic EuroSCORE ≤ 2% were evaluated, i.e., low-risk individuals, the mortality rate and the incidence of ischemic events and infectious complications composites remained higher among the transfused patients [6% vs. 0.4% (P<0.001), 11.7% vs. 24,3% (P<0.001) and 6.5% vs. 12.7% (P=0.002), respectively]. Conclusion The use of blood components in patients undergoing CABG was associated with ischemic events, infectious complications and hospital mortality, even in low-risk patients. PMID:29211220
-
Cardiac surgery in the Pacific Islands.
Davis, Philip John; Wainer, Zoe; O'Keefe, Michael; Nand, Parma
2011-12-01
Rheumatic heart disease constitutes a significant disease burden in under-resourced communities. Recognition of the devastating impact of rheumatic heart disease has resulted in volunteer cardiac teams from Australasia providing surgical services to regions of need. The primary objective of this study was to compare New Zealand hospitals' volunteer cardiac surgical operative results in Samoa and Fiji with the accepted surgical mortality and morbidity rates for Australasia. A retrospective review from seven volunteer cardiac surgical trips to Samoa and Fiji from 2003 to 2009 was conducted. Patient data were retrospectively and prospectively collected. Preoperative morbidity and mortality risk were calculated using the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE). Audit data were collated in line with the Australasian Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons guidelines. One hundred and three operations were performed over 6 years. EuroSCORE predicted an operative mortality of 3.32%. In-hospital mortality was 0.97% and post-discharge mortality was 2.91%, resulting in a 30-day mortality of 3.88%. This study demonstrated that performing cardiac surgery in Fiji and Samoa is viable and safe. However, the mortality was slightly higher than predicted by euroSCORE. Difficulties exist in predicting mortality rates in patients with rheumatic heart disease from Pacific Island nations as known risk scoring models fail to be disease, ethnically or culturally inclusive. Audit processes and risk model development and assessment are an essential part of this complex surgical charity work and will result in improved patient selection and outcomes. © 2011 The Authors. ANZ Journal of Surgery © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.
-
[Evaluation of medication risk in pregnant women: methodology of evaluation and risk management].
Eléfant, E; Sainte-Croix, A
1997-01-01
This round table discussion was devoted to the description of the tools currently available for the evaluation of drug risks and management during pregnancy. Five topics were submitted for discussion: pre-clinical data, methodological tools, benefit/risk ratio before prescription, teratogenic or fetal risk evaluation, legal comments.
-
Percutaneous edge-to-edge mitral valve repair in high-surgical-risk patients: do we hit the target?
Van den Branden, Ben J L; Swaans, Martin J; Post, Martijn C; Rensing, Benno J W M; Eefting, Frank D; Jaarsma, Wybren; Van der Heyden, Jan A S
2012-01-01
This study sought to assess the feasibility and safety of percutaneous edge-to-edge mitral valve (MV) repair in patients with an unacceptably high operative risk. MV repair for mitral regurgitation (MR) can be accomplished by use of a clip that approximates the free edges of the mitral leaflets. All patients were declined for surgery because of a high logistic EuroSCORE (>20%) or the presence of other specific surgical risk factors. Transthoracic echocardiography was performed before and 6 months after the procedure. Differences in New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, quality of life (QoL) using the Minnesota questionnaire, and 6-min walk test (6-MWT) distances were reported. Fifty-five procedures were performed in 52 patients (69.2% male, age 73.2 ± 10.1 years, logistic EuroSCORE 27.1 ± 17.0%). In 3 patients, partial clip detachment occurred; a second clip was placed successfully. One patient experienced cardiac tamponade. Two patients developed inguinal bleeding, of whom 1 needed surgery. Six patients (11.5%) died during 6-month follow-up (5 patients as a result of progressive heart failure and 1 noncardiac death). The MR grade before repair was ≥3 in 100%; after 6 months, a reduction in MR grade to ≤2 was present in 79% of the patients. Left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic diameter, LV ejection fraction, and systolic pulmonary artery pressure improved significantly. Accompanied improvements in NYHA functional class, QoL index, 6-MWT distances, and log N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide were observed. In a high-risk population, MR reduction can be achieved by percutaneous edge-to-edge valve repair, resulting in LV remodeling with improvement of functional capacity after 6 months. Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Yousif, A; Addison, D; Lakkis, N; Rosengart, T; Virani, S S; Birnbaum, Y; Alam, M
2018-05-01
Data from randomized trials evaluating the efficacy of on- versus off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting remain inconclusive, particularly in high-risk populations. The aim of this study is to compare the outcomes associated with on- versus off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting among high-risk patients. We performed a meta-analysis of randomized control trials comparing on- versus off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting, focusing on high-risk populations. Studies focusing on "high-risk" features: European System of Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) ≥ 5, age > 70 years, preexisting renal insufficiency, history of stroke(s), and the presence of left ventricular dysfunction were included. MEDLINE, Scopus, and Embase were searched for all publications between January 1, 2000 and August 1, 2016, using the following terms: on-pump, off-pump, coronary artery bypass, high-risk, left ventricular dysfunction, elderly, aged, and renal insufficiency. Endpoints included cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, need for revascularization, renal failure, and length of hospital stay. Nine studies incorporating 11,374 patients with a mean age of 70 years were selected. There was no statistical difference in cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and renal failure between the two groups. There was a decrease in further revascularization at 1 year with on-pump (OR 0.67 (0.50-0.89)). However, there was an increase in length of hospital stay by 2.24 days (p = 0.03) among the on-pump group with no difference in stroke (OR 1.34 (1.00-1.80)). On-pump is associated with a decreased risk of additional revascularization by 1 year. However, this appears to be a cost of longer hospitalization.
-
Registry of transcatheter aortic-valve implantation in high-risk patients.
Gilard, Martine; Eltchaninoff, Hélène; Iung, Bernard; Donzeau-Gouge, Patrick; Chevreul, Karine; Fajadet, Jean; Leprince, Pascal; Leguerrier, Alain; Lievre, Michel; Prat, Alain; Teiger, Emmanuel; Lefevre, Thierry; Himbert, Dominique; Tchetche, Didier; Carrié, Didier; Albat, Bernard; Cribier, Alain; Rioufol, Gilles; Sudre, Arnaud; Blanchard, Didier; Collet, Frederic; Dos Santos, Pierre; Meneveau, Nicolas; Tirouvanziam, Ashok; Caussin, Christophe; Guyon, Philippe; Boschat, Jacques; Le Breton, Herve; Collart, Frederic; Houel, Remi; Delpine, Stephane; Souteyrand, Geraud; Favereau, Xavier; Ohlmann, Patrick; Doisy, Vincent; Grollier, Gilles; Gommeaux, Antoine; Claudel, Jean-Philippe; Bourlon, Francois; Bertrand, Bernard; Van Belle, Eric; Laskar, Marc
2012-05-03
Transcatheter aortic-valve implantation (TAVI) is an emerging intervention for the treatment of high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis and coexisting illnesses. We report the results of a prospective multicenter study of the French national transcatheter aortic-valve implantation registry, FRANCE 2. All TAVIs performed in France, as listed in the FRANCE 2 registry, were prospectively included in the study. The primary end point was death from any cause. A total of 3195 patients were enrolled between January 2010 and October 2011 at 34 centers. The mean (±SD) age was 82.7±7.2 years; 49% of the patients were women. All patients were highly symptomatic and were at high surgical risk for aortic-valve replacement. Edwards SAPIEN and Medtronic CoreValve devices were implanted in 66.9% and 33.1% of patients, respectively. Approaches were either transarterial (transfemoral, 74.6%; subclavian, 5.8%; and other, 1.8%) or transapical (17.8%). The procedural success rate was 96.9%. Rates of death at 30 days and 1 year were 9.7% and 24.0%, respectively. At 1 year, the incidence of stroke was 4.1%, and the incidence of periprosthetic aortic regurgitation was 64.5%. In a multivariate model, a higher logistic risk score on the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), New York Heart Association functional class III or IV symptoms, the use of a transapical TAVI approach, and a higher amount of periprosthetic regurgitation were significantly associated with reduced survival. This prospective registry study reflected real-life TAVI experience in high-risk elderly patients with aortic stenosis, in whom TAVI appeared to be a reasonable option. (Funded by Edwards Lifesciences and Medtronic.).
-
Saia, Francesco; Moretti, Carolina; Dall'Ara, Gianni; Ciuca, Cristina; Taglieri, Nevio; Berardini, Alessandra; Gallo, Pamela; Cannizzo, Marina; Chiarabelli, Matteo; Ramponi, Niccolò; Taffani, Linda; Bacchi-Reggiani, Maria Letizia; Marrozzini, Cinzia; Rapezzi, Claudio; Marzocchi, Antonio
2016-01-01
Background Whilst the majority of the patients with severe aortic stenosis can be directly addressed to surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), in some instances additional information may be needed to complete the diagnostic workout. We evaluated the role of balloon aortic valvuloplasty (BAV) as a bridge-to-decision (BTD) in selected high-risk patients. Methods Between 2007 and 2012, the heart team in our Institution required BTD BAV in 202 patients. Very low left ventricular ejection fraction, mitral regurgitation grade ≥ 3, frailty, hemodynamic instability, serious comorbidity, or a combination of these factors were the main drivers for this strategy. We evaluated how BAV influenced the final treatment strategy in the whole patient group and in each specific subgroup. Results Mean logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was 23.5% ± 15.3%, age 81 ± 7 years. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%, cerebrovascular accident 1% and overall vascular complications 4% (0.5% major; 3.5% minor). Of the 193 patients with BTD BAV who survived and received a second heart team evaluation, 72.6% were finally deemed eligible for definitive treatment (25.4% for AVR; 47.2% for TAVI): 96.7% of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction recovery; 70.5% of patients with mitral regurgitation reduction; 75.7% of patients who underwent BAV in clinical hemodynamic instability; 69.2% of frail patients and 68% of patients who presented serious comorbidities. Conclusions Balloon aortic valvuloplasty can be considered as bridge-to-decision in high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis who cannot be immediate candidates for definitive transcatheter or surgical treatment. PMID:27582761
-
[Biological evaluation within a risk management process].
Zhuang, Fei; Ding, Biao
2007-07-01
Bio-evaluation within the medical device quality/risk management system is a risk analyzing and assessing process. On the basis of data from characterization of materials, scientific literatures, application history, bio-toxicology testing and so on, weighing the benefit and the risk, bio-evaluation does a conclusion to "take" or "quit" the product design. There is no "zero risk" though "no toxicity" always is the most desirable conclusion in a testing report. The application history data is the most comprehensive among the information available, since no testing system can "clone" the human body. In addition, the capital cost has to be taken into account when bringing the sophisticated testing technologies into the evaluating system. Investigating the #G95-1 of FDA CDRH and the changes of ISO 10993-1, the trend to integrate bio-evaluation into a quality/risk management process can be figured out.
-
Shafranskaya, K S; Kuzmina, O K; Sumin, D A; Krivoshapova, K Ye; Uchasova, Ye G; Ivanov, S V; Zykov, M V; Kashtalap, V V; Barbarash, O L
2016-10-01
To assess significance of urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) for predicting hospital complications in subjects with ischemic heart disease (IHD) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The study included 720 subjects who underwent CABG between 03/2011 and 04/2012. Blood serum creatinine level, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) (MDRD formula) and NGAL concentration were measured before and on day 7 after CABG. The following unfavorable outcomes of operative intervention: myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or transient ischemic attack, acute or progression of chronic renal disease, remediastinotomy were registered during in-hospital period. Additive EuroSCORE was calculated for all patients. There were no significant differences in serum creatinine level and GFR both before and on day 7 after CABG between groups of patients with different risk assessed by EuroSCORE, and with complicated and uncomplicated postoperative course. Urine NGAL level before and on day 7 after CABG was significantly higher in high and medium compared with low EuroSCORE risk groups. Preoperative NGAL urine level was significantly higher in patients with than in those without MI or stroke after CABG. NGAL urine level was also higher in patients with development of acute renal failure (ARF) compared with those without ARF. Both pre- and postoperative NGAL urine levels were higher in patients with unfavorable outcome while there were no significant differences in serum creatinine levels and CRF between patients with favorable and unfavorable outcomes. Preoperative measurement of urinary NGAL - a preclinical marker of acute kidney injury - allowed to predict more accurately the hospital risk of development of adverse cardiovascular and renal complications of CABG.
-
Chieffo, Alaide; Petronio, Anna Sonia; Mehilli, Julinda; Chandrasekhar, Jaya; Sartori, Samantha; Lefèvre, Thierry; Presbitero, Patrizia; Capranzano, Piera; Tchetche, Didier; Iadanza, Alessandro; Sardella, Gennaro; Van Mieghem, Nicolas M; Meliga, Emanuele; Dumonteil, Nicholas; Fraccaro, Chiara; Trabattoni, Daniela; Mikhail, Ghada; Sharma, Samin; Ferrer, Maria Cruz; Naber, Christoph; Kievit, Peter; Baber, Usman; Snyder, Clayton; Sharma, Madhav; Morice, Marie Claude; Mehran, Roxana
2018-01-08
This study sought to examine the safety and performance of contemporary transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in an exclusive all-women TAVR population, and to further investigate the potential impact of female sex-specific characteristics on composite 1-year clinical outcomes. Women comprise ≥50% patients undergoing TAVR. Several data have shown the noninferiority of TAVR compared with surgical aortic valve replacement for symptomatic significant aortic stenosis, but no study so far has been specifically powered to detect differences by sex. The WIN-TAVI (Women's INternational Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation) registry is a multinational, prospective, observational registry of women undergoing TAVR for significant aortic stenosis, across 18 sites in Europe and 1 site in the United States, between January 2013 and December 2015. The primary Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC)-2 efficacy endpoint was a composite of mortality, stroke, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for valve-related symptoms or heart failure or valve-related dysfunction beyond 30 days. Secondary endpoints included composite 1-year death or stroke. Predictors of 1-year outcomes were determined using Cox regression methods. A total of 1,019 intermediate to high-risk women, with mean age 82.5 ± 6.3 years, mean European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) I 17.8 ± 11.7% and mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons score 8.3 ± 7.4% were enrolled. TAVR was performed via transfemoral access in 90.6% and new-generation devices were used in 42.1%. The primary VARC-2 efficacy composite endpoint occurred in 111 (10.9%) patients beyond 30 days and in 167 (16.5%) patients at 1 year. The incidence of 1-year death or stroke was 13.9% (n = 141). Death occurred in 127 (12.5%) patients and stroke in 22 (2.2%) patients. Prior coronary revascularization (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17 to 2.52; p = 0.006) and EuroSCORE I (HR: 1.02; 95% CI
-
Geidel, Stephan; Wohlmuth, Peter; Schmoeckel, Michael
2016-03-01
The objective of this study was to analyze the results of open heart mitral valve operations for survival prediction in patients with previously unsuccessful MitraClip procedures. Thirty-three consecutive patients who underwent mitral valve surgery in our institution were studied. At a median of 41 days, they had previously undergone one to five futile MitraClip implantations. At the time of their operations, patients were 72.6 ± 10.3 years old, and the calculated risk, using the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II, was a median of 26.5%. Individual outcomes were recorded, and all patients were monitored postoperatively. Thirty-day mortality was 9.1%, and the overall survival at 2.2 years was 60.6%. Seven cardiac-related and six noncardiac deaths occurred. Univariate survival regression models demonstrated a significant influence of the following variables on survival: EuroSCORE II (p = 0.0022), preoperative left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (p = 0.0052), left ventricular ejection fraction (p = 0.0249), coronary artery disease (p = 0.0385), and severe pulmonary hypertension (p = 0.0431). Survivors showed considerable improvements in their New York Heart Association class (p < 0.0001), left ventricular ejection fraction (p = 0.0080), grade of mitral regurgitation (p = 0.0350), and mitral valve area (p = 0.0486). Survival after mitral repair was not superior to survival after replacement. Indications for surgery after failed MitraClip procedures must be considered with the greatest of care. Variables predicting postoperative survival should be taken into account regarding the difficult decision as to whether to operate or not. Our data suggest that replacement of the pretreated mitral valve is probably the more reasonable concept rather than complex repairs. When the EuroSCORE II at the time of surgery exceeds 30%, conservative therapy is advisable. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc
-
At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.
2008-01-01
The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…
-
FIASCO II failure to achieve a satisfactory cardiac outcome study: the elimination of system errors.
Farid, Shakil; Page, Aravinda; Jenkins, David; Jones, Mark T; Freed, Darren; Nashef, Samer A M
2013-07-01
Death in low-risk cardiac surgical patients provides a simple and accessible method by which modifiable causes of death can be identified. In the first FIASCO study published in 2009, local potentially modifiable causes of preventable death in low-risk patients with a logistic EuroSCORE of 0-2 undergoing cardiac surgery were inadequate myocardial protection and lack of clarity in the chain of responsibility. As a result, myocardial protection was improved, and a formalized system introduced to ensure clarity of the chain of responsibility in the care of all cardiac surgical patients. The purpose of the current study was to re-audit outcomes in low-risk patients to see if improvements have been achieved. Patients with a logistic EuroSCORE of 0-2 who had cardiac surgery from January 2006 to August 2012 were included. Data were prospectively collected and retrospectively analysed. The case notes of patients who died in hospital were subject to internal and external review and classified according to preventability. Two thousand five hundred and forty-nine patients with a logistic EuroSCORE of 0-2 underwent cardiac surgery during the study period. Seven deaths occurred in truly low-risk patients, giving a mortality of 0.27%. Of the seven, three were considered preventable and four non-preventable. Mortality was marginally lower than in our previous study (0.37%), and no death occurred as a result of inadequate myocardial protection or communication failures. We postulate that the regular study of such events in all institutions may unmask systemic errors that can be remedied to prevent or reduce future occurrences. We encourage all units to use this methodology to detect any similarly modifiable factors in their practice.
-
A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng
2017-08-01
Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.
-
Feasibility and safety of minimized cardiopulmonary bypass in major aortic surgery
Momin, Aziz U.; Sharabiani, Mansour T. A.; Kidher, Emadin; Najefi, Ali; Mulholland, John W.; Reeves, Barnaby C.; Angelini, Gianni D.; Anderson, Jon R.
2013-01-01
OBJECTIVES Conventional cardiopulmonary bypass causes haemodilution and is a trigger of systemic inflammatory reactions, coagulopathy and organ failure. Miniaturized cardiopulmonary bypass has been proposed as a way to reduce these deleterious effects of conventional cardiopulmonary bypass and to promote a more physiological state. The use of miniaturized cardiopulmonary bypass has been reported in low-risk patients undergoing valve and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. However, little is known about its application in major aortic surgery. METHODS From February 2007 to September 2010, 49 patients underwent major aortic surgery using the Hammersmith miniaturized cardiopulmonary bypass (ECCO, Sorin). Data were extracted from medical records to characterize preoperative comorbidities (EuroSCORE), perioperative complications and the use of blood products. The same data were collected and described for 328 consecutive patients having similar surgery with conventional cardiopulmonary bypass at the Bristol Heart Institute, our twinned centre, during the same period. RESULTS The miniaturized cardiopulmonary bypass group had a median EuroSCORE of 8 [inter-quartile range (IQR): 5–11], 13% had preoperative renal dysfunction and 20% of operations were classified as emergency or salvage. Thirty-day mortalities were 6.4; and 69, 67 and 74% had ≥1 unit of red cells, fresh frozen plasma (FFP) and platelets transfused, respectively. Eight percent of patients experienced a renal complication, and 8% a neurological complication. The conventional cardiopulmonary bypass group was similar, with a EuroSCORE of 8 (IQR: 6–10); 30-day mortalities were 9.4; and 68, 62 and 74% had ≥1 unit of red cells, FFP and platelets transfused, respectively. The proportions experiencing renal and neurological complications were 14 and 5%. CONCLUSIONS Our experience suggests that miniaturized cardiopulmonary bypass is safe and feasible for use in major aortic cardiac surgery. A
-
Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.
2009-01-01
Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072
-
Cardiac Surgery in Jehovah's Witness Patients: Experience of a Brazilian Tertiary Hospital.
Valle, Felipe Homem; Pivatto, Fernando; Gomes, Bruna Sessim; Freitas, Tanara Martins de; Giaretta, Vanessa; Gus, Miguel
2017-01-01
The outcomes of Jehovah's Witness (JW) patients submitted to open heart surgery may vary across countries and communities. The aim of this study was to describe the morbidity and mortality of JW patients undergoing cardiac surgery in a tertiary hospital center in Southern Brazil. A case-control study was conducted including all JW patients submitted to cardiac surgery from 2008 to 2016. Three consecutive surgical non-JW controls were matched to each selected JW patient. The preoperative risk of death was estimated through the mean EuroSCORE II. We studied 16 JW patients with a mean age of 60.6±12.1 years. The non-JW group included 48 patients with a mean age of 63.3±11.1 years (P=0.416). Isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery was the most frequent surgery performed in both groups. Median EuroSCORE II was 1.29 (IQR: 0.66-3.08) and 1.43 (IQR: 0.72-2.63), respectively (P=0.988). The mortality tended to be higher in JW patients (18.8% vs. 4.2%, P=0.095), and there was a higher difference between the predicted and observed mortality in JW patients compared with controls (4.1 and 18.8% vs. 2.1 and 4.2%). More JW patients needed hemodialysis in the postoperative period (20.0 vs. 2.1%, P=0.039). We showed a high rate of in-hospital mortality in JW patients submitted to cardiac surgery. The EuroSCORE II may underestimate the surgical risk in these patients.
-
Cardiac Surgery in Jehovah's Witness Patients: Experience of a Brazilian Tertiary Hospital
Valle, Felipe Homem; Pivatto Júnior, Fernando; Gomes, Bruna Sessim; de Freitas, Tanara Martins; Giaretta, Vanessa; Gus, Miguel
2017-01-01
Introduction The outcomes of Jehovah's Witness (JW) patients submitted to open heart surgery may vary across countries and communities. The aim of this study was to describe the morbidity and mortality of JW patients undergoing cardiac surgery in a tertiary hospital center in Southern Brazil. Methods A case-control study was conducted including all JW patients submitted to cardiac surgery from 2008 to 2016. Three consecutive surgical non-JW controls were matched to each selected JW patient. The preoperative risk of death was estimated through the mean EuroSCORE II. Results We studied 16 JW patients with a mean age of 60.6±12.1 years. The non-JW group included 48 patients with a mean age of 63.3±11.1 years (P=0.416). Isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery was the most frequent surgery performed in both groups. Median EuroSCORE II was 1.29 (IQR: 0.66-3.08) and 1.43 (IQR: 0.72-2.63), respectively (P=0.988). The mortality tended to be higher in JW patients (18.8% vs. 4.2%, P=0.095), and there was a higher difference between the predicted and observed mortality in JW patients compared with controls (4.1 and 18.8% vs. 2.1 and 4.2%). More JW patients needed hemodialysis in the postoperative period (20.0 vs. 2.1%, P=0.039). Conclusion We showed a high rate of in-hospital mortality in JW patients submitted to cardiac surgery. The EuroSCORE II may underestimate the surgical risk in these patients. PMID:29211216
-
Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki
A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.
-
Risk Evaluation in the Pre-Phase A Conceptual Design of Spacecraft
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fabisinski, Leo L., III; Maples, Charlotte Dauphne
2010-01-01
Typically, the most important decisions in the design of a spacecraft are made in the earliest stages of its conceptual design the Pre-Phase A stages. It is in these stages that the greatest number of design alternatives is considered, and the greatest number of alternatives is rejected. The focus of Pre-Phase A conceptual development is on the evaluation and comparison of whole concepts and the larger-scale systems comprising those concepts. This comparison typically uses general Figures of Merit (FOMs) to quantify the comparative benefits of designs and alternative design features. Along with mass, performance, and cost, risk should be one of the major FOMs in evaluating design decisions during the conceptual design phases. However, risk is often given inadequate consideration in conceptual design practice. The reasons frequently given for this lack of attention to risk include: inadequate mission definition, lack of rigorous design requirements in early concept phases, lack of fidelity in risk assessment methods, and under-evaluation of risk as a viable FOM for design evaluation. In this paper, the role of risk evaluation in early conceptual design is discussed. The various requirements of a viable risk evaluation tool at the Pre-Phase A level are considered in light of the needs of a typical spacecraft design study. A technique for risk identification and evaluation is presented. The application of the risk identification and evaluation approach to the conceptual design process is discussed. Finally, a computational tool for risk profiling is presented and applied to assess the risk for an existing Pre-Phase A proposal. The resulting profile is compared to the risks identified for the proposal by other means.
-
Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk
ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the ECOTOXicology Database (ECOTOX; Intermittent aortic cross-clamping for isolated CABG can save lives and money: experience with 15307 patients.
Boethig, D; Minami, K; Lueth, J-U; El-Banayosy, A; Breymann, T; Koerfer, R
2004-06-01
The ideal myocardial protection during isolated CABG is still a matter of debate. Cardioplegia versus intermittent aortic cross-clamping (IACC) are the main opponents; the following article shows that IACC can be safe, efficient and might be cheaper than cardioplegia. Demographics and co-morbidities of 15307 CABG only patients consecutively operated on between January 1993 and October 2001 in the Heart Center in Bad Oeynhausen were assessed by the German Quality Assurance data set and risk-stratified using the EuroSCORE. Outcome (30-day or in-hospital mortality) was compared to the expected EuroSCORE estimation. Expected mortality was 3.25 %, observed mortality was 1.3 %, being significantly lower in the low, medium as well as high risk patients subgroup. Complication rates increased steadily with expected mortality rates. Stroke and myocardial infarction rates for patients with peripheral vessel disease were not higher than in comparable studies. More than 1000000 EUR were saved by lower cardioplegia bills. Myocardial protection with intermittent aortic cross-clamping for isolated CABG can be safe, effective, and economically advantageous when compared to cardioplegic solutions.
-
Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.
2011-01-01
Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665
-
Klein, A A; Collier, T; Yeates, J; Miles, L F; Fletcher, S N; Evans, C; Richards, T
2017-09-01
A simple and accurate scoring system to predict risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. We identified independent risk factors associated with transfusion by performing univariate analysis, followed by logistic regression. We then simplified the score to an integer-based system and tested it using the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUC) statistic with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the scoring system was applied to the external validation dataset and the same statistical methods applied to test the accuracy of the ACTA-PORT score. Several factors were independently associated with risk of transfusion, including age, sex, body surface area, logistic EuroSCORE, preoperative haemoglobin and creatinine, and type of surgery. In our primary dataset, the score accurately predicted risk of perioperative transfusion in cardiac surgery patients with an AUC of 0.76. The external validation confirmed accuracy of the scoring method with an AUC of 0.84 and good agreement across all scores, with a minor tendency to under-estimate transfusion risk in very high-risk patients. The ACTA-PORT score is a reliable, validated tool for predicting risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This and other scores can be used in research studies for risk adjustment when assessing outcomes, and might also be incorporated into a Patient Blood Management programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com
-
RISK MANAGEMENT EVALUATION FOR CONCENTRATED ANIMAL FEEDING OPERATIONS
The National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) developed a Risk Management Evaluation (RME) to provide information needed to help plan future research in the Laboratory dealing with the environmental impact of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Agriculture...
-
Risk evaluation of highway engineering project based on the fuzzy-AHP
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Qian; Wei, Yajun
2011-10-01
Engineering projects are social activities, which integrate with technology, economy, management and organization. There are uncertainties in each respect of engineering projects, and it needs to strengthen risk management urgently. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of highway engineering, and the study of the basic theory on risk evaluation, the paper built an index system of highway project risk evaluation. Besides based on fuzzy mathematics principle, analytical hierarchy process was used and as a result, the model of the comprehensive appraisal method of fuzzy and AHP was set up for the risk evaluation of express way concessionary project. The validity and the practicability of the risk evaluation of expressway concessionary project were verified after the model was applied to the practice of a project.
-
Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming
2011-10-01
The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.
-
A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics
Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan
2015-01-01
Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859
-
This notice provides information for two public meetings to obtain input into the Agency’s development of processes for risk evaluation and chemical prioritization for risk evaluation under amended TSCA.
-
Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.
Zernike, W; Henderson, A
1999-06-01
This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.
-
Baumann, Stefan; Werner, Nikos; Ibrahim, Karim; Westenfeld, Ralf; Al-Rashid, Fadi; Sinning, Jan-Malte; Westermann, Dirk; Schäfer, Andreas; Karatolios, Konstantinos; Bauer, Timm; Becher, Tobias; Akin, Ibrahim
2018-03-08
Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is an alternative strategy to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with high perioperative risk. The microaxial Impella ® pump (Abiomed, Danvers, MA, USA), used as prophylactic and temporary support, is currently the most common device for "protected high-risk PCI" to ensure hemodynamic stability during complex coronary intervention. The study is an observational, retrospective multi-center registry. Patients from nine tertiary hospitals in Germany, who have undergone protected high-risk PCI, are included in the present study. A total of 154 patients (mean age 72.6-10.8 years, 75.3% male) were enrolled. The majority were at a high operative risk illustrated by a logistic EuroSCORE of 14.7-17.4. The initial SYNTAX score was 32.0-13.3, indicating very complex CAD and could be reduced to 14.1-14.3 (p < 0.0001) after PCI. The main reasons for protected PCI were complex coronary anatomy (70.8%), personal impression (56.5%), reduced ventricular ejection fraction (49.4%), comorbidities (47.4%), and surgical turndown (30.5%). Four patients (2.6%) experienced an intrahospital death. Data from the study show that protected PCI is a safe and effective approach to revascularize high-risk patients with complex coronary anatomy and comorbidities.
-
A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.
Khashman, Adnan
2009-08-01
Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.
-
Coleman, Susanne; Smith, Isabelle L; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Keen, Justin; Muir, Delia; Wilson, Lyn; Stubbs, Nikki; Dealey, Carol; Brown, Sarah; Nelson, E Andrea; Nixon, Jane
2018-02-01
To test the psychometric properties and clinical usability of a new Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instrument including inter-rater and test-retest reliability, convergent validity and data completeness. Methodological and practical limitations associated with traditional Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instruments, prompted a programme to work to develop a new instrument, as part of the National Institute for Health Research funded, Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056). Observational field test. For this clinical evaluation 230 patients were purposefully sampled across four broad levels of pressure ulcer risk with representation from four secondary care and four community NHS Trusts in England. Blinded and simultaneous paired (ward/community nurse and expert nurse) PURPOSE-T assessments were undertaken. Follow-up retest was undertaken by the expert nurse. Field notes of PURPOSE-T use were collected. Data were collected October 2012-January 2013. The clinical evaluation demonstrated "very good" (kappa) inter-rater and test-retest agreement for PURPOSE-T assessment decision overall. The percentage agreement for "problem/no problem" was over 75% for the main risk factors. Convergent validity demonstrated moderate to high associations with other measures of similar constructs. The PURPOSE-T evaluation facilitated the initial validation and clinical usability of the instrument and demonstrated that PURPOSE-T is suitable of use in clinical practice. Further study is needed to evaluate the impact of using the instrument on care processes and outcomes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
-
Schlingloff, Friederike; Schäfer, Ulrich; Frerker, Christian; Schmoeckel, Michael; Bader, Ralf
2014-09-01
The second-generation Jenavalve prosthesis (Jenavalve Technology, Inc., Munich, Germany) is the first transcatheter valve Conformité Européene (CE) marked for treatment of both aortic stenosis (AS) and pure aortic regurgitation (AR). Although the feasibility of the Jenavalve transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) in patients with pure AR has been described, haemodynamic and follow-up data are lacking. We report on a series of 10 transapical Jenavalve implantations for pure AR between December 2012 and September 2013. The patients were determined for TAVI by heart team decision at high surgical risk [log EuroSCORE (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation) >20%], frailty or Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Transaortic gradients and right heart haemodynamics were measured invasively before and after TAVI. Ventriculography and transoesophageal echocardiography were used to determine paravalvular regurgitation. All-cause mortality, NYHA functional class and echocardiographic measurements were followed up at 30 days and at 3, 9 and 12 months postoperatively. Overall, mean age was 79 ± 9 years, mean left ventricular ejection fraction 50 ± 17% and mean log EuroSCORE 28.3 ± 17.1%. There were no perioperative complications. Paravalvular regurgitation immediately after implantation was graded none (n = 6), trace (n = 3) or mild (n = 1). Overall 30-day mortality was 30% (3/10). Three patients refused further treatment, such as haemodialysis or treatment of mitral regurgitation. Rate for pacemaker implantation was 2/10 (20%). Intraprocedural success and haemodynamic data in our cases were good. The mortality in our group highlighted the importance of careful patient selection, especially for this pathology. The Jenavalve prosthesis proved to be suitable for treatment of AR in surgical high-risk patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.
-
Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.
1996-06-01
As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forestmore » compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment.« less
-
Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André
2012-09-01
Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Denault, André Y; Bussières, Jean S; Arellano, Ramiro; Finegan, Barry; Gavra, Paul; Haddad, François; Nguyen, Anne Q N; Varin, France; Fortier, Annik; Levesque, Sylvie; Shi, Yanfen; Elmi-Sarabi, Mahsa; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Perrault, Louis P; Lambert, Jean
2016-10-01
Inhaled milrinone (iMil) has been used for the treatment of pulmonary hypertension (PH) but its efficacy, safety, and prophylactic effects in facilitating separation from cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) and preventing right ventricular (RV) dysfunction have not yet been evaluated in a clinical trial. The purpose of this study was to investigate if iMil administered before CPB would be superior to placebo in facilitating separation from CPB. High-risk cardiac surgical patients with PH were randomized to receive iMil or placebo after the induction of anesthesia and before CPB. Hemodynamic parameters and RV function were evaluated by means of pulmonary artery catheterization and transesophageal echocardiography. The groups were compared for the primary outcome of the level of difficulty in weaning from CPB. Among the secondary outcomes examined were the reduction in the severity of PH, the incidence of RV failure, and mortality. Of the 124 patients randomized, the mean (standard deviation [SD]) EuroSCORE II was 8.0 (2.6), and the baseline mean (SD) systolic pulmonary artery pressure (SPAP) was 53 (9) mmHg. The use of iMil was associated with increases in cardiac output (P = 0.03) and a reduction in SPAP (P = 0.04) with no systemic hypotension. Nevertheless, there was no difference in the combined incidence of difficult or complex separation from CPB between the iMil and control groups (30% vs 28%, respectively; absolute difference, 2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -14 to 18; P = 0.78). There was also no difference in RV failure between the iMil and control groups (15% vs 14%, respectively; difference, 1%; 95% CI, -13 to 12; P = 0.94). Mortality was increased in patients with RV failure vs those without (22% vs 2%, respectively; P < 0.001). In high-risk cardiac surgery patients with PH, the prophylactic use of iMil was associated with favourable hemodynamic effects that did not translate into improvement of clinically relevant endpoints. This trial was registered at
-
Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.
Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David
2014-09-01
Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.
-
Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Halvorsen, Peder; Nexøe, Jørgen; Nielsen, Jesper; Støvring, Henrik; Kristiansen, Ivar
2011-01-01
When people make choices, they may have multiple options presented simultaneously or, alternatively, have options presented 1 at a time. It has been shown that if decision makers have little experience with or difficulties in understanding certain attributes, these attributes will have greater impact in joint evaluations than in separate evaluations. The authors investigated the impact of separate versus joint evaluations in a health care context in which laypeople were presented with the possibility of participating in risk-reducing drug therapies. In a randomized study comprising 895 subjects aged 40 to 59 y in Odense, Denmark, subjects were randomized to receive information in terms of absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), number needed to treat (NNT), or prolongation of life (POL), all with respect to heart attack, and they were asked whether they would be willing to receive a specified treatment. Respondents were randomly allocated to valuing the interventions separately (either great effect or small effect) or jointly (small effect and large effect). Joint evaluation reduced the propensity to accept the intervention that offered the smallest effect. Respondents were more sensitive to scale when faced with a joint evaluation for information formats ARR, RRR, and POL but not for NNT. Evaluability bias appeared to be most pronounced for POL and ARR. Risk information appears to be prone to evaluability bias. This suggests that numeric information on health gains is difficult to evaluate in isolation. Consequently, such information may bear too little weight in separate evaluations of risk-reducing interventions.
-
Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.
Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael
2013-04-01
The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.
-
Haaverstad, Rune; Nordrehaug, Jan Erik; Eide, Geir Egil; Norekvål, Tone M
2017-01-01
Objectives To investigate symptoms and self-reported health of patients conservatively treated for aortic stenosis (AS) and to identify factors associated with treatment decision and patient outcomes. Design A cross-sectional survey with an 18-month follow-up. Setting One tertiary university hospital in Western Norway. Participants In all, 1436 patients were diagnosed with AS between 2000 and 2012, and those 245 still under conservative treatment in 2013 were included in this study. Primary and secondary outcome measures Primary outcome measures were symptoms and self-reported health status. Secondary outcomes were treatment decision and patient survival after 18 months. Results A total of 136 patients with mean (SD) age 79 (12) years, 52% men responded. Among conservatively treated patients 77% were symptomatic. The symptom most frequently experienced was dyspnoea. Symptomatic patients reported worse physical and mental health compared with asymptomatic patients (effect size 1.24 and 0.74, respectively). In addition, symptomatic patients reported significantly higher levels of anxiety and depression compared with asymptomatic patients. However, symptom status did not correlate with haemodynamic severity of AS. After 18 months, 117 (86%) were still alive, 20% had undergone surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) and 7% transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). When adjusting for age, gender, symptomatic status, severity of AS and European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE), patients with severe AS had more than sixfold chance of being scheduled for AVR or TAVI compared with those with moderate AS (HR 6.3, 95% CI 1.9 to 21.2, p=0.003). Patients with EuroSCORE ≥11 had less chance for undergoing AVR or TAVI compared with those with EuroSCORE ≤5 (HR 0.06, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.46, p=0.007). Conclusions Symptoms affected both physical and mental health in conservatively treated patients with AS. Many patients with symptomatic severe AS are
-
Viana-Tejedor, Ana; Domínguez, Francisco J; Moreno Yangüela, Mar; Moreno, Raúl; López de Sá, Esteban; Mesa, José M; López-Sendón, José
2008-10-04
Increasing life expectancy in Western countries in the last decades has resulted in a significant gradual increasing number of octogenarians referred for cardiac surgery. There is a need for a critical evaluation of the long-term surgical outcome and quality of life in the elderly. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery and to assess the long term survival and quality of life. Data were reviewed on 150 patients aged over 80 years--mean age (standard deviation): 82.7 (2.5) years--who underwent cardiac surgery at our institution in the last 26 years. We analyzed clinical and epidemiological variables included in the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE), in-hospital morbidity and mortality, long term survival and quality of life after cardiac surgery. The 30-day mortality rate was 30.1%, with a mean hospital stay of 16.5 days (13-27). Emergent procedure, reparation of postinfarction ventricular ruptures, New York Heart Association functional class IV, chronic renal failure and previous myocardial infarction were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Mean follow up was 72.2 (9.9) months with survival rates of 87.3% and 57% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. Late postoperative quality of life in our 53 long-term survivors was significantly better than prior to surgery. New York Heart Association functional class improved from 2.52 to 1.48. Most survivors (97.7%) were satisfied with present quality of life Cardiac surgery in octogenarians is associated with increased in-hospital mortality rate and longer hospital stay. Our findings support that cardiac surgery can be performed in a selected elderly population with good long-term survival and quality of life.
-
Communicating radon risk effectively: a mid-course evaluation. Interim report
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Smith, V.K.; Desvousges, W.H.; Fisher, A.
A panel of 2300 homeowners was divided into subgroups to test the effectiveness of six alternative ways of explaining the risk from naturally occurring radon gas. The research design focused on two dimensions: qualitative vs. quantitative and directive vs. evaluative. These characteristics led to 4 experimental booklets, which were compared with EPA's Citizen's Guide and a one-page fact sheet. The evaluation examined how much people learned about radon; whether they could form risk perceptions consistent with their home's measured radon level; and whether they felt they had enough information to make a decision about mitigation. The fact sheet did notmore » perform well on any of these evaluation criteria. None of the five booklets clearly was best for all 3 evaluation criteria; the report discusses the implications for designing an effective radon-risk communication program.« less
-
USING BIOASSAYS TO EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES
Often, the performance of risk management techniques is evaluated by measuring the concentrations of the chemials of concern before and after risk management effoprts. However, using bioassays and chemical data provides a more robust understanding of the effectiveness of risk man...
-
Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success
Balian, John D.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie
2010-01-01
Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS)/risk minimization programs as market access enablers. This fully integrated risk-management paradigm creates exciting opportunities for newer tools, techniques, and approaches to more successfully optimize product development, approval, and commercialization, with patients as the ultimate beneficiaries. PMID:25083193
-
Evaluation of polygenic risk scores for predicting breast and prostate cancer risk.
Machiela, Mitchell J; Chen, Chia-Yen; Chen, Constance; Chanock, Stephen J; Hunter, David J; Kraft, Peter
2011-09-01
Recently, polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been shown to be associated with certain complex diseases. The approach has been based on the contribution of counting multiple alleles associated with disease across independent loci, without requiring compelling evidence that every locus had already achieved definitive genome-wide statistical significance. Whether PRS assist in the prediction of risk of common cancers is unknown. We built PRS from lists of genetic markers prioritized by their association with breast cancer (BCa) or prostate cancer (PCa) in a training data set and evaluated whether these scores could improve current genetic prediction of these specific cancers in independent test samples. We used genome-wide association data on 1,145 BCa cases and 1,142 controls from the Nurses' Health Study and 1,164 PCa cases and 1,113 controls from the Prostate Lung Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Ten-fold cross validation was used to build and evaluate PRS with 10 to 60,000 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). For both BCa and PCa, the models that included only published risk alleles maximized the cross-validation estimate of the area under the ROC curve (0.53 for breast and 0.57 for prostate). We found no significant evidence that PRS using common variants improved risk prediction for BCa and PCa over replicated SNP scores. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
-
Development and evaluation of a risk communication curriculum for medical students.
Han, Paul K J; Joekes, Katherine; Elwyn, Glyn; Mazor, Kathleen M; Thomson, Richard; Sedgwick, Philip; Ibison, Judith; Wong, John B
2014-01-01
To develop, pilot, and evaluate a curriculum for teaching clinical risk communication skills to medical students. A new experience-based curriculum, "Risk Talk," was developed and piloted over a 1-year period among students at Tufts University School of Medicine. An experimental study of 2nd-year students exposed vs. unexposed to the curriculum was conducted to evaluate the curriculum's efficacy. Primary outcome measures were students' objective (observed) and subjective (self-reported) risk communication competence; the latter was assessed using an Observed Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) employing new measures. Twenty-eight 2nd-year students completed the curriculum, and exhibited significantly greater (p<.001) objective and subjective risk communication competence than a convenience sample of 24 unexposed students. New observational measures of objective competence in risk communication showed promising evidence of reliability and validity. The curriculum was resource-intensive. The new experience-based clinical risk communication curriculum was efficacious, although resource-intensive. More work is needed to develop the feasibility of curriculum delivery, and to improve the measurement of competence in clinical risk communication. Risk communication is an important advanced communication skill, and the Risk Talk curriculum provides a model educational intervention and new assessment tools to guide future efforts to teach and evaluate this skill. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis
Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David
2014-01-01
Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about
-
Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu
2018-01-01
The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.
-
Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier
2015-03-01
In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
-
Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.
Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans
2017-01-01
The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.
-
Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L
The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.
2015-05-01
Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.
-
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.
1993-09-01
This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State.more » The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.« less
-
Benefit-risk Evaluation for Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME).
Evans, Scott R; Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Jiang, Hongyu; Hujer, Andrea M; Hujer, Kristine M; Manca, Claudia; Hill, Carol; Jacobs, Michael R; Chen, Liang; Patel, Robin; Kreiswirth, Barry N; Bonomo, Robert A
2016-09-15
The medical community needs systematic and pragmatic approaches for evaluating the benefit-risk trade-offs of diagnostics that assist in medical decision making. Benefit-Risk Evaluation of Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME) is a strategy for pragmatic evaluation of diagnostics designed to supplement traditional approaches. BED-FRAME evaluates diagnostic yield and addresses 2 key issues: (1) that diagnostic yield depends on prevalence, and (2) that different diagnostic errors carry different clinical consequences. As such, evaluating and comparing diagnostics depends on prevalence and the relative importance of potential errors. BED-FRAME provides a tool for communicating the expected clinical impact of diagnostic application and the expected trade-offs of diagnostic alternatives. BED-FRAME is a useful fundamental supplement to the standard analysis of diagnostic studies that will aid in clinical decision making. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.
-
Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.
2014-01-01
In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.
-
Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim
2015-04-01
Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management
-
Evaluating Potential Health Risks in Relocatable Classrooms.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Katchen, Mark; LaPierre, Adrienne; Charlin, Cary; Brucker, Barry; Ferguson, Paul
2001-01-01
Only limited data exist describing potential exposures to chemical and biological agents when using portable classrooms or outlining how to assess and reduce associated health risks. Evaluating indoor air quality involves examining ventilating rates, volatile organic compounds, and microbiologicals. Open communication among key stakeholders is…
-
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method Applied in the Real Estate Investment Risks Research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
ML(Zhang Minli), Zhang; Wp(Yang Wenpo), Yang
Real estate investment is a high-risk and high returned of economic activity, the key of real estate analysis is the identification of their types of investment risk and the risk of different types of effective prevention. But, as the financial crisis sweeping the world, the real estate industry also faces enormous risks, how effective and correct evaluation of real estate investment risks becomes the multitudinous scholar concern[1]. In this paper, real estate investment risks were summarized and analyzed, and comparative analysis method is discussed and finally presented fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, not only in theory has the advantages of science, in the application also has the reliability, for real estate investment risk assessment provides an effective means for investors in real estate investing guidance on risk factors and forecasts.
-
USING BIOASSAYS TO EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF EDC RISK MANAGEMENT METHODS
In Superfund risk management research, the performance of risk management techniques is typically evaluated by measuring "the concentrations of the chemicals of concern before and after risk management efforts. However, using bioassays and chemical data provides a more robust und...
-
Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.
Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M
2013-03-01
To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.
-
Credit risk evaluation based on social media.
Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang
2016-07-01
Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Two criteria for evaluating risk prediction models
Pfeiffer, R.M.; Gail, M.H.
2010-01-01
SUMMARY We propose and study two criteria to assess the usefulness of models that predict risk of disease incidence for screening and prevention, or the usefulness of prognostic models for management following disease diagnosis. The first criterion, the proportion of cases followed PCF(q), is the proportion of individuals who will develop disease who are included in the proportion q of individuals in the population at highest risk. The second criterion is the proportion needed to follow-up, PNF(p), namely the proportion of the general population at highest risk that one needs to follow in order that a proportion p of those destined to become cases will be followed. PCF(q) assesses the effectiveness of a program that follows 100q% of the population at highest risk. PNF(p) assess the feasibility of covering 100p% of cases by indicating how much of the population at highest risk must be followed. We show the relationship of those two criteria to the Lorenz curve and its inverse, and present distribution theory for estimates of PCF and PNF. We develop new methods, based on influence functions, for inference for a single risk model, and also for comparing the PCFs and PNFs of two risk models, both of which were evaluated in the same validation data. PMID:21155746
-
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P.; Morgan, M.G.
Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs aboutmore » the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.« less
-
Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.
Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C
2014-09-01
Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.
-
Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China
Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun
2015-01-01
Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation. PMID:26528994
-
Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.
Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun
2015-10-29
Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.
-
Tuberculosis and the traveller: evaluating and reducing risk through travel consultation.
Denholm, Justin T; Thevarajan, Irani
2016-03-01
Although the last 10 years have seen a slow decline in global tuberculosis (TB) incidence, it remains one of the most significant infectious diseases worldwide, with an estimated 9.6 million new cases and 1.5 million deaths in 2014. The consequences of contracting TB can be significant for the individual, with extended treatment requirements, risk of long-term health consequences and the possibility of transmitting infection to others among the complications of disease. This review article discusses the risk of TB infection as a result of international travel including evaluation of risk, risk reduction and a proposed testing strategy for travel-related TB infection. A review of the relevant literature combined with expert opinion was used to formulate this article. The global TB epidemic is varied and dynamic, including changing patterns of both drug sensitive and drug resistant disease. The annual incidence of TB in individual countries such as South Africa may be greater than 800/100,000, while multidrug resistance is found in up to 19% of new cases in the Russian Federation. Recent surveys of traveller risk are presented for short and long-term travellers to various countries and settings. Overall, risk to travelers is low, with rates of acquiring latent TB less than 1% per travel year for most settings. However, detailed travel evaluation is necessary to evaluate individual risk. Travellers with immunosuppressive conditions are at high risk for progression to active disease if infected, and should have special consideration in travel consultation. It is important for practitioners giving advice regarding tuberculosis risk and travel to access up-to-date information regarding local conditions. This article provides an approach to assessment and management of TB in travellers, including a guide to pre- and post-travel evaluation, testing and vaccination. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press
-
Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...
-
Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model
Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.
2006-01-01
We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.
-
EVALUATING RISK IN OLDER ADULTS USING PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS
The rapid growth in the number of older Americans has many implications for public health, including the need to better understand the risks posed by environmental exposures to older adults. An important element for evaluating risk is the understanding of the doses of environment...
-
Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.
Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin
2018-01-12
Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast
-
Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen
2018-03-01
Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.
-
Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haining, Wang; Lei, Wang; Qian, Zhang; Zongqiang, Zheng; Hongyu, Zhou; Chuncheng, Gao
2018-03-01
For the uncertain problems in the comprehensive evaluation of supervision risk in electricity transaction, this paper uses the unidentified rational numbers to evaluation the supervision risk, to obtain the possible result and corresponding credibility of evaluation and realize the quantification of risk indexes. The model can draw the risk degree of various indexes, which makes it easier for the electricity transaction supervisors to identify the transaction risk and determine the risk level, assisting the decision-making and realizing the effective supervision of the risk. The results of the case analysis verify the effectiveness of the model.
-
Evaluating the Risks: A Bernoulli Process Model of HIV Infection and Risk Reduction.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pinkerton, Steven D.; Abramson, Paul R.
1993-01-01
A Bernoulli process model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is used to evaluate infection risks associated with various sexual behaviors (condom use, abstinence, or monogamy). Results suggest that infection is best mitigated through measures that decrease infectivity, such as condom use. (SLD)
-
Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mycophenolic acid preparations.
Rostas, Sara; Kim, Miae; Gabardi, Steven
2014-03-01
To review risks associated with mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations and evaluate their required risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) elements. Articles were identified through a non-date-limited MEDLINE and EMBASE search using the terms fetal toxicity, teratogenicity, risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, MPA, mycophenolate mofetil, entericcoated MPA, and organ transplant. Information from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the manufacturers of the MPA preparations was also evaluated. The MPA preparations are associated with several potential risks, including gastrointestinal disturbances and myelosuppression; however, their impact on the fetus in pregnant patients taking 1 of these agents poses the greatest risk. The FDA approved REMS programs for all MPA products, both innovator and generic preparations, in September 2012. With evidence of increased risk of miscarriage and birth defects associated with MPA use, the FDA instituted a REMS program that contains both a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guides for the MPA products, which were previously FDA approved, should continue to be distributed to patients who get either an initial prescription filled or a refill. The ETASU requires prescribers to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgment Form. A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry specific to this medication has been established, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA.
-
A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.
2012-01-01
Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…
-
Impact of the European Working Time Directive on exposure to operative cardiac surgical training.
Lim, Eric; Tsui, Steven
2006-10-01
To evaluate the impact of the reduced working hours, an anticipated decline in case load and increasing patient risk profile, we performed a cohort study to determine the factors that influenced operative surgical training. A historic cohort study design was utilised, and data were acquired from a prospective operative surgical database a year before, and a year after the introduction of the European Working Time Directive (EWTD) compliant rota (1st August 2004). Logistic regression was used to determine the predictors of operative surgical training, and individual variables were ranked by likelihood ratio. In total, 3312 cardiac surgical operations were performed over a 2-year period between 3rd August 2003 and 31st July 2005. The proportion of cases performed by trainees was 39% (626/1587) in the year before and 40% (695/1725) in the year after the introduction of WTD compliant rota. There were no differences in operative risk (logistic EuroSCORE of 8, P=0.853). Independent predictors for surgery performed by a trainee (in descending order of influence) were the consultant in charge (chi11(2) 273.1; P<0.001), procedure performed (chi5(2) 163.5; P<0.001), increasing seniority of trainee (chi2(2) 142.3; P<0.001), revision surgery (chi1(2) 45.9; P<0.001), lower EuroSCORE (chi1(2) 17.6; P<0.001), and better ventricular function (chi2(2) 7.8; P=0.020). The odds ratio of an operation performed by a trainee increased after the introduction of the EWTD compliant rota to 1.19 (95% CI 1.00-1.41; P=0.045). With a successful institution-specific training module and a commitment to training, exposure to operative surgical training can be sustained despite shortening of working hours.
-
Evaluation on Cost Overrun Risks of Long-distance Water Diversion Project Based on SPA-IAHP Method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yuanyue, Yang; Huimin, Li
2018-02-01
Large investment, long route, many change orders and etc. are main causes for costs overrun of long-distance water diversion project. This paper, based on existing research, builds a full-process cost overrun risk evaluation index system for water diversion project, apply SPA-IAHP method to set up cost overrun risk evaluation mode, calculate and rank weight of every risk evaluation indexes. Finally, the cost overrun risks are comprehensively evaluated by calculating linkage measure, and comprehensive risk level is acquired. SPA-IAHP method can accurately evaluate risks, and the reliability is high. By case calculation and verification, it can provide valid cost overrun decision making information to construction companies.
-
Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.
2016-12-01
Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.
-
Risk Evaluation of Bogie System Based on Extension Theory and Entropy Weight Method
Du, Yanping; Zhang, Yuan; Zhao, Xiaogang; Wang, Xiaohui
2014-01-01
A bogie system is the key equipment of railway vehicles. Rigorous practical evaluation of bogies is still a challenge. Presently, there is overreliance on part-specific experiments in practice. In the present work, a risk evaluation index system of a bogie system has been established based on the inspection data and experts' evaluation. Then, considering quantitative and qualitative aspects, the risk state of a bogie system has been evaluated using an extension theory and an entropy weight method. Finally, the method has been used to assess the bogie system of four different samples. Results show that this method can assess the risk state of a bogie system exactly. PMID:25574159
-
Risk evaluation of bogie system based on extension theory and entropy weight method.
Du, Yanping; Zhang, Yuan; Zhao, Xiaogang; Wang, Xiaohui
2014-01-01
A bogie system is the key equipment of railway vehicles. Rigorous practical evaluation of bogies is still a challenge. Presently, there is overreliance on part-specific experiments in practice. In the present work, a risk evaluation index system of a bogie system has been established based on the inspection data and experts' evaluation. Then, considering quantitative and qualitative aspects, the risk state of a bogie system has been evaluated using an extension theory and an entropy weight method. Finally, the method has been used to assess the bogie system of four different samples. Results show that this method can assess the risk state of a bogie system exactly.
-
Zhu, Da; Chen, Yucheng; Guo, Yingqiang; Hu, Jia; Zhang, Ji; Wei, Xin; Tang, Hong; Shi, Yingkang
2015-11-15
To evaluate the safety and efficacy of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) for patients with aortic stenosis (AS) or pure/dominant aortic regurgitation (AR) using the J-Valve™ system. Twenty patients with isolated aortic valve disease (11 with pure/dominant AR and 9 with AS) at high risk for open-heart surgery were enrolled in this study. The mean Logistic Euro-SCORE I was 27.2±8.2% (mean age 74.5±4.7years). Four sizes of prosthesis were used for annular size up to 21 mm (n=1), 23mm (n=2), 25mm (n=10) and 27mm (n=7). Clinical and echocardiographic evaluations were performed at baseline, post-procedure and follow-up. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints were procedural success, major adverse events as well as echocardiographic performance. TAVI with the J-Valve™ device was successfully performed in 19 patients (95%). Conversion to surgical valve replacement was necessary in one patient due to prosthesis embolization. No mortality occurred during 90 days follow-up. Pacemaker implantation for new onset conduction disorders was necessary in one patient (5%). For patient with severe AS, post-procedure TAVI resulted in favorable reduction of mean transvalvular gradients (55.3±8.5 vs. 16.4±13.3 mmHg, P<0.01). Mean transvalvular gradient was also favorable in AR patients after valve implantation (6.9±1mmHg). The majority of patients had none or trivial paravalvular regurgitation (17/19) while none had moderate or severe paravalvular regurgitation. Trans-apical TAVI using the J-Valve™ prosthesis is potentially an effective treatment option for patients with AS or pure/dominant AR at high risk for open-heart surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model
We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...
-
Evaluation of health risks for contaminated aquifers.
Piver, W T; Jacobs, T L; Medina, M A
1997-01-01
This review focuses on progress in the development of transport models for heterogeneous contaminated aquifers, the use of predicted contaminant concentrations in groundwater for risk assessment for heterogeneous human populations, and the evaluation of aquifer remediation technologies. Major limitations and areas for continuing research for all methods presented in this review are identified. Images Figure 2. PMID:9114282
-
A framework and case studies for evaluation of enzyme ontogeny in children's health risk evaluation.
Ginsberg, Gary; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Kancherla, Jayaram; Foos, Brenda; Sonawane, Babasaheb
2017-01-01
Knowledge of the ontogeny of Phase I and Phase II metabolizing enzymes may be used to inform children's vulnerability based upon likely differences in internal dose from xenobiotic exposure. This might provide a qualitative assessment of toxicokinetic (TK) variability and uncertainty pertinent to early lifestages and help scope a more quantitative physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) assessment. Although much is known regarding the ontogeny of metabolizing systems, this is not commonly utilized in scoping and problem formulation stage of human health risk evaluation. A framework is proposed for introducing this information into problem formulation which combines data on enzyme ontogeny and chemical-specific TK to explore potential child/adult differences in internal dose and whether such metabolic differences may be important factors in risk evaluation. The framework is illustrated with five case study chemicals, including some which are data rich and provide proof of concept, while others are data poor. Case studies for toluene and chlorpyrifos indicate potentially important child/adult TK differences while scoping for acetaminophen suggests enzyme ontogeny is unlikely to increase early-life risks. Scoping for trichloroethylene and aromatic amines indicates numerous ways that enzyme ontogeny may affect internal dose which necessitates further evaluation. PBTK modeling is a critical and feasible next step to further evaluate child-adult differences in internal dose for a number of these chemicals.
-
Risk-Based Evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Vapor Intrusion Studies
Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark
2013-01-01
This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum. PMID:23765191
-
Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks.
Thacker, Scott; Kelly, Scott; Pant, Raghav; Hall, Jim W
2018-01-01
Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infrastructure risk assessment that incorporates interdependence, user demands, and potential failure-related economic losses. Individual infrastructure assets are intersected with probabilistic hazard maps to calculate expected annual damages. Protection measure costs are integrated to calculate risk reduction and associated discounted benefits, which are used to explore the business case for investment in adaptation. A demonstration of the methodology is provided for flood protection of major electricity substations in England and Wales. We conclude that the ongoing adaptation program for major electricity assets is highly cost beneficial. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
-
Some factors influencing the nonexpert's perception and evaluation of environmental risks
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Vaughan, E.
Policy makers and decision analysts have been limited somewhat in their ability to predict public reactions to regulatory decisions about hazardous substances or technologies. Most studies of the nonexpert's evaluation of environmental risks have relied on survey data and correlational analyses which preclude the determination of interactive effects, effects that could explain apparent inconsistencies. Three experimental studies were designed to test empirically the effect of six dimensions of environmental risk on judgments of (1) perceived risk, (2) acceptability of risk, (3) subjective probability of negative outcomes due to exposure, and (4) perceived severity of consequences. Factors examined included: (a) familiaritymore » with the terms used to describe a hazard, (b) environmental persistence of a chemical, (c) personal relevance of data used to evaluate cancer-causing potential, (d) personal relevance of possible adverse consequences, (e) perceived control over exposure, and (f) vividness of the exposure pathway. The findings were discussed in terms of their implications for the nonexpert's formulation of risk perceptions, and public policy in the domain of environmental risks.« less
-
Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation
Amelung, Volker E.; Juhnke, Christin
2018-01-01
Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment
-
[Evaluation and prognosis of occupational risk in workers of nonferrous metallurgy enterprises].
Shliapnikov, D M; Kostarev, V G
2014-01-01
The article deals with results of a priori and a posteriori evaluation of occupational risk for workers' health. Categories of a priori occupational risk for workers are estimated as high to very high (intolerable) risk. Findings are that work conditions in nonferrous metallurgy workshop result in upper respiratory tract diseases (medium degree of occupational conditionality). Increased prevalence of such diseases among the workers is connected with length of service. The authors revealed priority factors for occupationally conditioned diseases. A promising approach in occupational medicine is creation of methods to evaluate and forecast occupational risk, that enable to specify goal parameters for prophylactic measures. For example, modelling the risk of occupationally conditioned diseases via changes in exposure to occupational factor and length of service proved that decrease of chemical concentrations in air of workplace to maximally allowable ones lowers risk of respiratory diseases from 14 to 6 cases per year, for length of service of 5 years and population risk.
-
Mahesh, Balakrishnan; Sharples, Linda; Codispoti, Massimiliano
2014-01-01
Surgical specialties rely on practice and apprenticeship to acquire technical skills. In 2009, the final reduction in working hours to 48 per week, in accordance with the European Working Time Directive (EWTD), has also led to an expansion in the number of trainees. We examined the effect of these changes on operative training in a single high-volume [>1500 procedures/year] adult cardiac surgical center. Setting: A single high-volume [>1500 procedures/year] adult cardiac surgical center. Design: Consecutive data were prospectively collected into a database and retrospectively analyzed. Procedures and Main Outcome Measures: Between January 2006 and August 2010, 6688 consecutive adult cardiac surgical procedures were analyzed. The proportion of cases offered for surgical training were compared for 2 non-overlapping consecutive time periods: 4504 procedures were performed before the final implementation of the EWTD (Phase 1: January 2006-December 2008) and 2184 procedures after the final implementation of the EWTD (Phase 2: January 2009-August 2010). Other predictors of training considered in the analysis were grade of trainee, logistic European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE), type of surgical procedure, weekend or late procedure, and consultant. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of training cases (procedure performed by trainee) and to evaluate the effect of the EWTD on operative surgical training after correcting for confounding factors. Proportion of training cases rose from 34.6% (1558/4504) during Phase 1 to 43.6% (953/2184) in Phase 2 (p < 0.0001), despite higher mean logistic EuroSCORE [4.29 (6.8) during Phase 1 vs 4.95 (7.2) during Phase 2, p < 0.0001] and higher proportion of cases performed out of hours [153 (3.4) during Phase 1 vs 116 (5.3) during Phase 2, p < 0.0001]. During Phase 1, senior trainees (last 2 years of training) performed 803 (17.8%) procedures, whereas other trainees (first 4 years of
-
Food-chain contamination evaluations in ecological risk assessments
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Linder, G.
Food-chain models have become increasingly important within the ecological risk assessment process. This is the case particularly when acute effects are not readily apparent, or the contaminants of concern are not readily detoxified, have a high likelihood for partitioning into lipids, or have specific target organs or tissues that may increase their significance in evaluating their potential adverse effects. An overview of food-chain models -- conceptual, theoretical, and empirical -- will be considered through a series of papers that will focus on their application within the ecological risk assessment process. Whether a food-chain evaluation is being developed to address relativelymore » simple questions related to chronic effects of toxicants on target populations, or whether a more complex food-web model is being developed to address questions related to multiple-trophic level transfers of toxicants, the elements within the food chain contamination evaluation can be generalized to address the mechanisms of toxicant accumulation in individual organisms. This can then be incorporated into more elaborate models that consider these organismal-level processes within the context of a species life-history or community-level responses that may be associated with long-term exposures.« less
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.
2013-07-01
Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help
-
Assaying the Effect of Levodopa on the Evaluation of Risk in Healthy Humans
Symmonds, Mkael; Wright, Nicholas D.; Fagan, Elizabeth; Dolan, Raymond J.
2013-01-01
In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20) employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes) and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes - skewness), dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback. PMID:23844168
-
Evaluation of the Occupational Risks from Jet Fuel (Toxicity Screening Battery)
2012-09-01
1α may serve as a marker of epidermal damage or stress due to irritation in this in vitro model. As an alternative to the 3-dimensional human skin...AFRL-RH-FS-SR-2013-0003 Final Report: Evaluation of the Occupational Risks from Jet Fuel (Toxicity Screening Battery) David R. Mattie...2. REPORT TYPE Special Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) Oct 2010 – Dec 2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Evaluation of the Occupational Risks from
-
Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score to Improve Risk Prediction for Alzheimer's Disease.
Chouraki, Vincent; Reitz, Christiane; Maury, Fleur; Bis, Joshua C; Bellenguez, Celine; Yu, Lei; Jakobsdottir, Johanna; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Adams, Hieab H; Choi, Seung Hoan; Larson, Eric B; Fitzpatrick, Annette; Uitterlinden, Andre G; de Jager, Philip L; Hofman, Albert; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Vardarajan, Badri; Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla; van der Lee, Sven J; Lopez, Oscar; Dartigues, Jean-François; Berr, Claudine; Amouyel, Philippe; Bennett, David A; van Duijn, Cornelia; DeStefano, Anita L; Launer, Lenore J; Ikram, M Arfan; Crane, Paul K; Lambert, Jean-Charles; Mayeux, Richard; Seshadri, Sudha
2016-06-18
Effective prevention of Alzheimer's disease (AD) requires the development of risk prediction tools permitting preclinical intervention. We constructed a genetic risk score (GRS) comprising common genetic variants associated with AD, evaluated its association with incident AD and assessed its capacity to improve risk prediction over traditional models based on age, sex, education, and APOEɛ4. In eight prospective cohorts included in the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP), we derived weighted sum of risk alleles from the 19 top SNPs reported by the IGAP GWAS in participants aged 65 and older without prevalent dementia. Hazard ratios (HR) of incident AD were estimated in Cox models. Improvement in risk prediction was measured by the difference in C-index (Δ-C), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI>0). Overall, 19,687 participants at risk were included, of whom 2,782 developed AD. The GRS was associated with a 17% increase in AD risk (pooled HR = 1.17; 95% CI = [1.13-1.21] per standard deviation increase in GRS; p-value = 2.86×10-16). This association was stronger among persons with at least one APOEɛ4 allele (HRGRS = 1.24; 95% CI = [1.15-1.34]) than in others (HRGRS = 1.13; 95% CI = [1.08-1.18]; pinteraction = 3.45×10-2). Risk prediction after seven years of follow-up showed a small improvement when adding the GRS to age, sex, APOEɛ4, and education (Δ-Cindex = 0.0043 [0.0019-0.0067]). Similar patterns were observed for IDI and NRI>0. In conclusion, a risk score incorporating common genetic variation outside the APOEɛ4 locus improved AD risk prediction and may facilitate risk stratification for prevention trials.
-
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Springer, J. Fred; Sambrano, Soledad; Sale, Elizabeth; Kasim, Rafa; Hermann, Jack
This document summarizes findings from the Center for Substance Abuse Prevention's National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs, which identified characteristics associated with strong substance abuse prevention outcomes in 48 prevention programs. Major findings include: as youth age, levels of risk and protection shift considerably,…
-
Oterhals, Kjersti; Haaverstad, Rune; Nordrehaug, Jan Erik; Eide, Geir Egil; Norekvål, Tone M
2017-08-21
To investigate symptoms and self-reported health of patients conservatively treated for aortic stenosis (AS) and to identify factors associated with treatment decision and patient outcomes. A cross-sectional survey with an 18-month follow-up. One tertiary university hospital in Western Norway. In all, 1436 patients were diagnosed with AS between 2000 and 2012, and those 245 still under conservative treatment in 2013 were included in this study. Primary outcome measures were symptoms and self-reported health status. Secondary outcomes were treatment decision and patient survival after 18 months. A total of 136 patients with mean (SD) age 79 (12) years, 52% men responded. Among conservatively treated patients 77% were symptomatic. The symptom most frequently experienced was dyspnoea. Symptomatic patients reported worse physical and mental health compared with asymptomatic patients (effect size 1.24 and 0.74, respectively). In addition, symptomatic patients reported significantly higher levels of anxiety and depression compared with asymptomatic patients. However, symptom status did not correlate with haemodynamic severity of AS. After 18 months, 117 (86%) were still alive, 20% had undergone surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) and 7% transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). When adjusting for age, gender, symptomatic status, severity of AS and European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE), patients with severe AS had more than sixfold chance of being scheduled for AVR or TAVI compared with those with moderate AS (HR 6.3, 95% CI 1.9 to 21.2, p=0.003). Patients with EuroSCORE ≥11 had less chance for undergoing AVR or TAVI compared with those with EuroSCORE ≤5 (HR 0.06, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.46, p=0.007). Symptoms affected both physical and mental health in conservatively treated patients with AS. Many patients with symptomatic severe AS are not scheduled for surgery, despite the recommendations in current guidelines. The referral
-
Developing and Evaluating a Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Project.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Brownson, Ross C.; Mayer, Jeffrey P.; Dusseault, Patricia; Dabney, Sue; Wright, Kathleen; Jackson-Thompson, Jeannette; Malone, Bernard; Goodman, Robert
1997-01-01
Describes the development and baseline evaluation data from the Ozark Heart Health Project, a community-based cardiovascular disease risk reduction program in rural Missouri that targeted smoking, physical inactivity, and poor diet. Several Ozark counties participated in either intervention or control groups, and researchers conducted surveillance…
-
Hansen, Laura S; Sloth, Erik; Hjortdal, Vibeke E; Jakobsen, Carl-Johan
2015-08-01
Short-term (30 days) mortality frequently is used as an outcome measure after cardiac surgery, although it has been proposed that the follow-up period should be extended to 120 days to allow for more accurate benchmarking. The authors aimed to evaluate whether mortality rates 120 days after surgery were comparable to general mortality and to compare causes of death between the cohort and the general population. A multicenter descriptive cohort study using prospectively entered registry data. University hospital. The cohort was obtained from the Western Denmark Heart Registry and matched to the Danish National Hospital Register as well as the Danish Register of Causes of Death. A weighted, age-matched general population consisting of all Danish patients who died within the study period was identified through the central authority on Danish statistics. A total of 11,988 patients (>15 years) who underwent cardiac-surgery at Aarhus, Aalborg and Odense University Hospitals from April 1, 2006 to December 31, 2012 were included. Coronary artery bypass grafting, valve surgery and combinations. Mortality after cardiac surgery matches with mortality in the general population after 140 days. Mortality curves run almost parallel from this point onwards, regardless of The European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) and intervention. The causes of death in the cohort differed statistically significantly from the background population (p<0.0001; one-sample t-test) throughout the first postoperative year. The leading cause of death in the cohort was cardiac (38%); 53% of which was categorized as heart failure. A total of 54% of these patients were assessed preoperatively as having normal or mildly impaired heart function (EuroSCORE). This study supported an extended follow-up period after cardiac surgery when benchmarking cardiac surgery centers. Regardless of preoperative heart function, heart failure was the consistent leading cause of death. Copyright
-
2017-01-01
Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance. PMID:28052080
-
Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael
2011-01-01
Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…
-
A method for evaluating competency in assessment and management of suicide risk.
Hung, Erick K; Binder, Renée L; Fordwood, Samantha R; Hall, Stephen E; Cramer, Robert J; McNiel, Dale E
2012-01-01
Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE). The authors developed the CAI-S on the basis of the literature on suicide risk-assessment and management, and consultation with faculty focus groups from three sites in a large academic psychiatry department. The CAI-S structures faculty ratings regarding interviewing and data collection, case formulation and presentation, treatment-planning, and documentation. To evaluate the CAI-S, 31 faculty members used it to rate the performance of 31 learners (26 psychiatric residents and 5 clinical psychology interns) who participated in an OSCE. After interviewing a standardized patient, learners presented their risk-assessment findings and treatment plans. Faculty used the CAI-S to structure feedback to the learners. In a subsidiary study of interrater reliability, six faculty members rated video-recorded suicide risk-assessments. The CAI-S showed good internal consistency, reliability, and interrater reliability. Concurrent validity was supported by the finding that CAI-S ratings were higher for senior learners than junior learners, and were higher for learners with more clinical experience with suicidal patients than learners with less clinical experience. Faculty and learners rated the method as helpful for structuring feedback and supervision. The findings support the usefulness of the CAI-S for evaluating competency in suicide risk-assessment and management.
-
Chemical mixtures: Evaluation of risk for child-specific exposures in a multi-stressor environment
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Pohl, H.R.; Abadin, H.G.
Evaluating the health impact from exposure to chemical mixtures is multifaceted. One component is exposure. Exposure, and consequently risk assessment for mixtures and chemicals in general, are often viewed in terms of a given exposure to a given population at a given location over a given time period. However, environmental exposures are present throughout human lifetime. As a result, an evaluation of risk must include the distinctive characteristics related to chemical exposures which will impact risk depending upon the particular life stage where exposure occurs. Risks to offspring may be associated with unique exposures in utero, during infancy, childhood, ormore » adolescent periods. For example, exposure of infants to anthropogenic chemicals via breast milk may be of concern. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) approach to evaluating risks associated with exposure to mixtures of chemicals is presented. In addition to the breast milk issues, indoor exposure to combined air pollutants, drinking water contaminants, and soil and dust contaminants are discussed. The difference between a mixture's risk evaluation for children and adults is in the distinct exposure scenarios resulting from variations in behavior, physiology, and/or pharmacokinetics between adults and children rather than in the method for the specific mixtures evaluation per se.« less
-
Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.
2009-01-01
This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…
-
Nagai, Tomoo; Takase, Yoshiyuki; Hamabe, Akira; Tabata, Hirotsugu
2017-01-01
Objective The purpose of this study was to present the recent clinical profiles and the real-world management of infective endocarditis (IE). Methods All medical records of patients with IE were reviewed retrospectively for their clinical data, including clinical presentation, laboratory results, blood cultures, echocardiographic findings, treatments and complications. Using the clinical data collected, we calculated the EuroSCORE II, the European risk score for adult cardiac surgery, the Charlson Comorbidity Index as a surrogate of comordibity, and the Katz Index as a surrogate of frailty. Results Thirty-eight patients were identified as having IE (24 men, age: 71.8±13.1 years). Congestive heart failure occurred in 16 patients (42%), stroke in 14 (50%), and systemic embolism in 5 (13%). The EuroSCORE II and Charlson Comorbidity Index were high (7.7±5.8% and 5.5±2.8%, respectively). The Katz Index was fair (5.5±1.4) before the onset but deteriorated to 2.8±2.7 at the time of establishing the diagnosis of IE (p<0.001). Early surgery was performed in 22 cases (61%). In-hospital death occurred in 10 cases (26%). A EuroSCORE II ≥9%, Staphylococcus aureus etiology, and a Charlson Comorbidity Index were suggested as determinants of in-hospital death (hazard ratios: 173.60, 9.31, 1.57, respectively). In contrast, early surgery was suggested as a determinant of the survival (hazard ratio: 0.04). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was also suggested as a determinant for selecting conservative management (odds ratio: 1.40). Conclusion Comorbidity may influence the treatment selection and outcome of elderly patients with IE. PMID:29225254
-
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-06-22
... appropriate collection of data regarding the use, consumer perception, and health risks of an MRTP? III...] Scientific Evaluation of Modified Risk Tobacco Product Applications; Public Workshop; Request for Comments... obtain input on specific issues associated with the scientific evaluation of modified risk tobacco...
-
Benchmarking on the evaluation of major accident-related risk assessment.
Fabbri, Luciano; Contini, Sergio
2009-03-15
This paper summarises the main results of a European project BEQUAR (Benchmarking Exercise in Quantitative Area Risk Assessment in Central and Eastern European Countries). This project is among the first attempts to explore how independent evaluations of the same risk study associated with a certain chemical establishment could differ from each other and the consequent effects on the resulting area risk estimate. The exercise specifically aimed at exploring the manner and degree to which independent experts may disagree on the interpretation of quantitative risk assessments for the same entity. The project first compared the results of a number of independent expert evaluations of a quantitative risk assessment study for the same reference chemical establishment. This effort was then followed by a study of the impact of the different interpretations on the estimate of the overall risk on the area concerned. In order to improve the inter-comparability of the results, this exercise was conducted using a single tool for area risk assessment based on the ARIPAR methodology. The results of this study are expected to contribute to an improved understanding of the inspection criteria and practices used by the different national authorities responsible for the implementation of the Seveso II Directive in their countries. The activity was funded under the Enlargement and Integration Action of the Joint Research Centre (JRC), that aims at providing scientific and technological support for promoting integration of the New Member States and assisting the Candidate Countries on their way towards accession to the European Union.
-
Bolliger, Daniel; Filipovic, Miodrag; Matt, Peter; Tanaka, Kenichi A; Gregor, Michael; Zenklusen, Urs; Seeberger, Manfred D; Lurati Buse, Giovanna
2016-01-01
Reduced aspirin responsiveness (i.e. persistent high platelet reactivity in platelet function testing) might be associated with increased risk of myocardial ischemia and cardiac mortality in patients with coronary disease. However, the impact in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is unclear. The aim of this prospective cohort study was to evaluate the predictive value of reduced aspirin responsiveness on cardiac and thromboembolic events in patients undergoing elective isolated CABG surgery with aspirin intake until at least two days before surgery. We included 304 patients in this prospective single-center cohort study. Impedance platelet aggregometry (Multiplate®) was performed directly before and on the first day after surgery. Reduced aspirin responsiveness was defined as area under the curve in ASPItest (AUCASPI) ≥300 U. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality and/or major adverse cardiac or thromboembolic events within 1 year. Reduced aspirin responsiveness was found in 13 and 24% of patients pre and postoperatively, respectively. There was no difference in the outcomes between patients with normal and reduced aspirin responsiveness in the preoperative measurement (log-rank test, p = 0.540). Multivariate analysis including logistic EuroSCORE I and postoperative troponin T levels did not show any association of reduced aspirin responsiveness with adverse outcome (hazard ratio, 0.576; (95% CI 0.128-2.585; p = 0.471). Similarly, postoperative reduced aspirin responsiveness was not associated with adverse events. To conclude, reduced aspirin responsiveness as evaluated by Multiplate® platelet function analyzer was not associated with increased incidence of major adverse cardiac and thromboembolic events and mortality after CABG surgery.
-
Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.
Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu
2017-03-01
Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.
-
2011-04-01
205 RESEARCH DESIGN & METHODS Objective/Hypothesis: The objective of the study is to evaluate the utility of a short hardiness-resilience...problems. Study Design & Methods : This research will evaluate the utility of hardiness, as measured by the DRS-15R, as a screening tool for...may take a toll on defense workers. This research points the way to new approaches for early identification of military workers at risk for stress
-
Ho, K M
2014-05-01
Cardiac surgery is increasingly performed on elderly patients with multiple comorbid conditions, but the determinants of the relationship between cost and survival time after cardiac surgery for patients with a serious cardiac condition remain uncertain. Using the long-term outcome data of a cohort study on adult cardiac surgical patients, the relationship between cost and survival time after cardiac surgery from a hospital service perspective was determined. The total cost for each patient was estimated by the costs of the surgical procedures, intra-aortic balloon pump utilisation, operating theatre utilisation, blood products, intensive care unit stay and cumulative hospital stay up to a median follow-up time of 30 months. Of the 2131 patients considered in this study, a total cost >A$100,000 per life-year after cardiac surgery was observed only in 171 patients (8.0%, 95% confidence interval 6.9 to 9.3%). Age, Charlson Comorbidity Index and EuroSCORE were all related to the cost per life-year after cardiac surgery, but EuroSCORE (odds ratio 1.26 per score increment, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.35, P=0.001) was, by far, the most important determinant and explained 32% of the variability in cost per life-year after cardiac surgery. Patients with a high EuroSCORE were associated with a substantially longer length of intensive care unit stay and cumulative hospital stay, as well as a shorter survival time after cardiac surgery compared to patients with a lower EuroSCORE. Of all the subgroups of patients examined, only patients with a EuroSCORE >5 were consistently associated with a cost >A$100,000 per life-year (cost per life-year $183,148, 95% confidence interval 125, 394 to 240, 902).
-
An evaluation of Computational Fluid dynamics model for flood risk analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Di Francesco, Silvia; Biscarini, Chiara; Montesarchio, Valeria
2014-05-01
This work presents an analysis of the hydrological-hydraulic engineering requisites for Risk evaluation and efficient flood damage reduction plans. Most of the research efforts have been dedicated to the scientific and technical aspects of risk assessment, providing estimates of possible alternatives and of the risk associated. In the decision making process for mitigation plan, the contribute of scientist is crucial, due to the fact that Risk-Damage analysis is based on evaluation of flow field ,of Hydraulic Risk and on economical and societal considerations. The present paper will focus on the first part of process, the mathematical modelling of flood events which is the base for all further considerations. The evaluation of potential catastrophic damage consequent to a flood event and in particular to dam failure requires modelling of the flood with sufficient detail so to capture the spatial and temporal evolutions of the event, as well of the velocity field. Thus, the selection of an appropriate mathematical model to correctly simulate flood routing is an essential step. In this work we present the application of two 3D Computational fluid dynamics models to a synthetic and real case study in order to evaluate the correct evolution of flow field and the associated flood Risk . The first model is based on a opensource CFD platform called openFoam. Water flow is schematized with a classical continuum approach based on Navier-Stokes equation coupled with Volume of fluid (VOF) method to take in account the multiphase character of river bottom-water- air systems. The second model instead is based on the Lattice Boltzmann method, an innovative numerical fluid dynamics scheme based on Boltzmann's kinetic equation that represents the flow dynamics at the macroscopic level by incorporating a microscopic kinetic approach. Fluid is seen as composed by particles that can move and collide among them. Simulation results from both models are promising and congruent to
-
Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure
Sridhara, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.
2017-01-01
Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing
-
Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.
2016-06-01
Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing
-
Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.
2012-12-01
Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change
-
Evaluating robustness in rank-based risk assessments of freshwater ecosystems
Mattson, K.M.; Angermeier, Paul
2007-01-01
Conservation planning aims to protect biodiversity by sustainng the natural physical, chemical, and biological processes within representative ecosystems. Often data to measure these components are inadequate or unavailable. The impact of human activities on ecosystem processes complicates integrity assessments and might alter ecosystem organization at multiple spatial scales. Freshwater conservation targets, such as populations and communities, are influenced by both intrinsic aquatic properties and the surrounding landscape, and locally collected data might not accurately reflect potential impacts. We suggest that changes in five major biotic drivers—energy sources, physical habitat, flow regime, water quality, and biotic interactions—might be used as surrogates to inform conservation planners of the ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Threats to freshwater systems might be evaluated based on their impact to these drivers to provide an overview of potential risk to conservation targets. We developed a risk-based protocol, the Ecological Risk Index (ERI), to identify watersheds with least/most risk to conservation targets. Our protocol combines risk-based components, specifically the frequency and severity of human-induced stressors, with biotic drivers and mappable land- and water-use data to provide a summary of relative risk to watersheds. We illustrate application of our protocol with a case study of the upper Tennessee River basin, USA. Differences in risk patterns among the major drainages in the basin reflect dominant land uses, such as mining and agriculture. A principal components analysis showed that localized, moderately severe threats accounted for most of the threat composition differences among our watersheds. We also found that the relative importance of threats is sensitive to the spatial grain of the analysis. Our case study demonstrates that the ERI is useful for evaluating the frequency and severity of ecosystemwide risk, which
-
[Evaluation of public health risk. A new instrument for environmental management in Chile].
Matus C, Patricia
2011-08-01
One of the main challenges in environmental management is to prevent the public health impact of projects that can cause pollution. To tackle this problem, the new Chilean bill on environmental management has defined the need to determine the potential health risks of a given Project. This paper gives a summary of the method used for risk evaluation and its evolution. Its incorporation in the Environmental Impact Evaluation System is proposed, to guarantee an effective prevention of the potential risks on health of new projects.
-
Nam, Robert K; Kattan, Michael W; Chin, Joseph L; Trachtenberg, John; Singal, Rajiv; Rendon, Ricardo; Klotz, Laurence H; Sugar, Linda; Sherman, Christopher; Izawa, Jonathan; Bell, David; Stanimirovic, Aleksandra; Venkateswaran, Vasundara; Diamandis, Eleftherios P; Yu, Changhong; Loblaw, D Andrew; Narod, Steven A
2011-08-01
Prostate cancer risk calculators incorporate many factors to evaluate an individual's risk for prostate cancer. We validated two common North American-based, prostate cancer risk calculators. We conducted a prospective, multi-institutional study of 2,130 patients who underwent a prostate biopsy for prostate cancer detection from five centers. We evaluated the performance of the Sunnybrook nomogram-based prostate cancer risk calculator (SRC) and the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) -based risk calculator (PRC) to predict the presence of any cancer and high-grade cancer. We examined discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis techniques to evaluate the prediction models. Of the 2,130 patients, 867 men (40.7%) were found to have cancer, and 1,263 (59.3%) did not have cancer. Of the patients with cancer, 403 (46.5%) had a Gleason score of 7 or more. The area under the [concentration-time] curve (AUC) for the SRC was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.69); the AUC for the PRC was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.64). The AUC was higher for predicting aggressive disease from the SRC (0.72; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.75) compared with that from the PRC (0.67; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.70). Decision curve analyses showed that the SRC performed better than the PRC for risk thresholds of more than 30% for any cancer and more than 15% for aggressive cancer. The SRC performed better than the PRC, but neither one added clinical benefit for risk thresholds of less than 30%. Further research is needed to improve the AUCs of the risk calculators, particularly for higher-grade cancer.
-
Nikolaev, V P
2008-01-01
Theoretical analysis of the risk of decompression illness (DI) during extravehicular activity following the Russian and NASA decompression protocols (D-R and D-US, respectively) was performed. In contrast to the tradition approach to decompression stress evaluation by the factor of tissue supersaturation with nitrogen, our probabilistic theory of decompression safety provides a completely reasoned evaluation and comparison of the levels of hazard of these decompression protocols. According to this theory, the function of cumulative DI risk is equal to the sum of functions of cumulative risk of lesion of all body tissues by gas bubbles and their supersaturation by solute gases. Based on modeling of dynamics of these functions, growth of the DI cumulative risk in the course of D-R and D-US follows essentially similar trajectories within the time-frame of up to 330 minutes. However, further extension of D-US but not D-R raises the risk of DI drastically.
-
Evaluation of risk of atherosclerosis in Indian adults.
Pandit, Deepa; Chiplonkar, Shashi; Khadilkar, Anuradha; Kinare, Arun; Khadilkar, Vaman; Divate, Uma
2013-05-01
To investigate interrelationship of arterial measurements with metabolic syndrome (MS) components and zinc status in apparently healthy Indian adults. Anthropometry and biochemical data were recorded in 110 men and 139 women (25-50 yr). Carotid Intima media thickness (CIMT), stiffness (beta), pulse wave velocity (PWV), elasticity modulus (Ep), and arterial compliance (AC) of the right carotid artery were evaluated ultrasonically. According to definition of MS, subjects were categorized as MS-1, MS-2, MS-3. Further, normal and MS subjects were divided as zinc sufficient and deficient. In all, 12.1% subjects had 3 risk factors for MS. Mean CIMT, beta, Ep and PWV were significantly higher by 6%, 11.6%, 29.5% and 12.4% in subjects with MS than normal (p < 0.05). AC showed significant decline in MS subjects by only 3% than normal (p < 0.05). Serum zinc was inversely correlated with beta, Ep and PWV in both the genders in subjects with MS (p < 0.05). A synergistic effect of serum zinc deficiency with MS further envisages the elevated risk of arterial stiffness. Risk of atherosclerosis is marked by increase in stiffness parameters even in presence of a single MS risk and zinc deficiency may further aggravate the risk indicating need for early diagnosis.
-
Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine
Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M
2011-01-01
A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398
-
The Application of a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique Used for Expendable Launch Vehicles
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Latimer, John A.
2009-01-01
This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.
-
Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.
2017-01-01
The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.
-
Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.
Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly
2010-11-01
An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.
-
Kennedy, David P; Brown, Ryan A; Morrison, Penelope; Vie, Loryana; Ryan, Gery W; Tucker, Joan S
2015-01-31
Homeless youth are at higher risk for sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancy than non-homeless youth. However, little is known about how they evaluate risk within the context of their sexual relationships. It is important to understand homeless youths' condom use decisions in light of their sexual relationships because condom use decisions are influenced by relationship dynamics in addition to individual attitudes and event circumstances. It is also important to understand how relationship level factors, sexual event circumstances, and individual characteristics compare and intersect. To explore these issues, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 37 homeless youth in Los Angeles County in 2011 concerning their recent sexual relationships and analyzed the data using systematic methods of team-based qualitative data analysis. We identified themes of risk-related evaluations and decisions at the relationship/partner, event, and individual level. We also identified three different risk profiles that emerged from analyzing how different levels of risk intersected across individual respondents. The three profiles included 1) Risk Takers, who consistently engage in risk and have low concern about consequences of risk behavior, 2) Risk Avoiders, who consistently show high concern about protection and consistently avoid risk, and 3) Risk Reactors, those who are inconsistent in their concerns about risk and protection and mainly take risks in reaction to relationship and event circumstances. Interventions targeting homeless youth should reflect multiple levels of risk behavior and evaluation in order to address the diversity of risk profiles. Relationship/partner-, event-, and individual-level factors are all important but have different levels of importance for different homeless youth. Interventions should be tailored to address the most important factor contributing to homeless youth reproductive needs.
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dwi Prastyo, Dedy; Handayani, Dwi; Fam, Soo-Fen; Puteri Rahayu, Santi; Suhartono; Luh Putu Satyaning Pradnya Paramita, Ni
2018-03-01
Risk assessment and evaluation becomes essential for financial institution to measure the potential risk of their counterparties. In middle of 2016 until first quarter of 2017, there is national program from Indonesian government so-called Tax Amnesty. One subsector that has potential to receive positive impact from the Tax Amnesty program is property and real estate. This work evaluates the risk of top five companies in term of capital share listed in Indonesia stock exchange (IDX). To do this, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) with ARMAX-GARCHX approach is employed. The ARMAX-GARCHX simultaneously models the adaptive mean and variance of stock return of each company considering exogenous variables, i.e. IDR/USD exchange rate and Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). The risk is evaluated in scheme of time moving window. The risk evaluation using 5% quantile with window size 500 transaction days perform better result compare to other scenarios. In addition, duration test is used to test the dependency between shortfalls. It informs that series of shortfall are independent.
-
Reliability and Validity of Observational Risk Screening in Evaluating Dynamic Knee Valgus
Ekegren, Christina L.; Miller, William C.; Celebrini, Richard G.; Eng, Janice J.; MacIntyre, Donna L.
2012-01-01
Study Design Nonexperimental methodological study. Objectives To determine the interrater and intrarater reliability and validity of using observational risk screening guidelines to evaluate dynamic knee valgus. Background A deficiency in the neuromuscular control of the hip has been identified as a key risk factor for non-contact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in post pubescent females. This deficiency can manifest itself as a valgus knee alignment during tasks involving hip and knee flexion. There are currently no scientifically tested methods to screen for dynamic knee valgus in the clinic or on the field. Methods Three physiotherapists used observational risk screening guidelines to rate 40 adolescent female soccer players according to their risk of ACL injury. The rating was based on the amount of dynamic knee valgus observed on a drop jump landing. Ratings were evaluated for intrarater and interrater agreement using kappa coefficients. Sensitivity and specificity of ratings were evaluated by comparing observational ratings with measurements obtained using 3-dimensional (3D) motion analysis. Results Kappa coefficients for intrarater and interrater agreement ranged from 0.75 to 0.85, indicating that ratings were reasonably consistent over time and between physiotherapists. Sensitivity values were inadequate, ranging from 67–87%. This indicated that raters failed to detect up to a third of “truly high risk” individuals. Specificity values ranged from 60–72% which was considered adequate for the purposes of the screen. Conclusion Observational risk screening is a practical and cost-effective method of screening for ACL injury risk. Rater agreement and specificity were acceptable for this method but sensitivity was not. To detect a greater proportion of individuals at risk of ACL injury, coaches and clinicians should ensure that they include additional tests for other high risk characteristics in their screening protocols. PMID:19721212
-
Frame, James N.; Jacobson, Joseph O.; Vogel, Wendy H.; Griffith, Niesha; Wariabharaj, Darshan; Garg, Rekha; Zon, Robin; Stephens, Cyntha L.; Bialecki, Alison M.; Bruinooge, Suanna S.; Allen, Steven L.
2013-01-01
To address oncology community stakeholder concerns regarding implementation of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program, ASCO sponsored a workshop to gather REMS experiences from representatives of professional societies, patient organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Stakeholder presentations and topical panel discussions addressed REMS program development, implementation processes, and practice experiences, as well as oncology drug safety processes. A draft REMS decision tool prepared by the ASCO REMS Steering Committee was presented for group discussion with facilitated, goal-oriented feedback. The workshop identified several unintended consequences resulting from current oncology REMS: (1) the release of personal health information to drug sponsors as a condition for gaining access to a needed drug; (2) risk information that is not tailored—and therefore not accessible—to all literacy levels; (3) exclusive focus on drug risk, thereby affecting patient-provider treatment discussion; (4) REMS elements that do not consider existing, widely practiced oncology safety standards, professional training, and experience; and (5) administrative burdens that divert the health care team from direct patient care activities and, in some cases, could limit patient access to important therapies. Increased provider and professional society participation should form the basis of ongoing and future REMS standardization discussions with the FDA to work toward overall improvement of risk communication. PMID:23814522
-
Morin, Jean-François; Botton, Eléonore; Jacquemard, François; Richard-Gireme, Anouk
2013-01-01
The Fetal medicine foundation (FMF) has developed a new algorithm called Prenatal Risk Calculation (PRC) to evaluate Down syndrome screening based on free hCGβ, PAPP-A and nuchal translucency. The peculiarity of this algorithm is to use the degree of extremeness (DoE) instead of the multiple of the median (MoM). The biologists measuring maternal seric markers on Kryptor™ machines (Thermo Fisher Scientific) use Fast Screen pre I plus software for the prenatal risk calculation. This software integrates the PRC algorithm. Our study evaluates the data of 2.092 patient files of which 19 show a fœtal abnormality. These files have been first evaluated with the ViewPoint software based on MoM. The link between DoE and MoM has been analyzed and the different calculated risks compared. The study shows that Fast Screen pre I plus software gives the same risk results as ViewPoint software, but yields significantly fewer false positive results.
-
Pressure Ulcer Risk Evaluation in Critical Patients: Clinical and Social Characteristics.
de Azevedo Macena, Mônica Suêla; da Costa Silva, Rayanne Suely; Dias Fernandes, Maria Isabel Da Conceição; de Almeida Medeiros, Ana Beatriz; Batista Lúcio, Kadyjina Daiane; de Carvalho Lira, Ana Luisa Brandão
2017-01-01
Pressure ulcers increase hospital stays and treatment costs due to their complications. Therefore, recognizing factors that contribute to pressure ulcer risk are important to patient safety. To evaluate the association between the scores of the Waterlow, Braden, and Norton scales and clinical and social characteristics in critically ill patients. A cross-sectional study of 78 patients in an adult intensive care unit of a university hospital in Northeastern Brazil was conducted from July to December 2015. Data included social and clinical information and the risk factors of the Braden, Norton and Waterlow scales. Data were analysed by the descriptive and inferential statistics. Most of the participants were female, adults and elderly people with brown skin colour, low education levels and insufficient income. Most of them showed a high risk for developing pressure ulcers using the three evaluated scales. Age, smoking status, diabetes and hypertension were associated with scores on the Waterlow, Braden and Norton scales. Age, use of the tobacco, diabetes and hypertension were associated with the risk of pressure ulcers in ICU patients.
-
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.
1995-06-01
This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.
-
Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.
Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan
2015-03-01
A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.
-
Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.
Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M
2016-06-01
Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing
-
Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2) under the U.S. Department of Energy's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO 2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO 2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format.more » The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user's manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.« less
-
An evaluation of risk estimation procedures for mixtures of carcinogens
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hwang, J.S.; Chen, J.J.
1999-12-01
The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on anmore » underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. IN this paper the authors evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach should perform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some of all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.« less
-
Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.
Cox, Louis Anthony Tony
2015-10-01
Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
-
Liu, Yaoming; Cohen, Mark E; Hall, Bruce L; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y
2016-08-01
The American College of Surgeon (ACS) NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator has been widely adopted as a decision aid and informed consent tool by surgeons and patients. Previous evaluations showed excellent discrimination and combined discrimination and calibration, but model calibration alone, and potential benefits of recalibration, were not explored. Because lack of calibration can lead to systematic errors in assessing surgical risk, our objective was to assess calibration and determine whether spline-based adjustments could improve it. We evaluated Surgical Risk Calculator model calibration, as well as discrimination, for each of 11 outcomes modeled from nearly 3 million patients (2010 to 2014). Using independent random subsets of data, we evaluated model performance for the Development (60% of records), Validation (20%), and Test (20%) datasets, where prediction equations from the Development dataset were recalibrated using restricted cubic splines estimated from the Validation dataset. We also evaluated performance on data subsets composed of higher-risk operations. The nonrecalibrated Surgical Risk Calculator performed well, but there was a slight tendency for predicted risk to be overestimated for lowest- and highest-risk patients and underestimated for moderate-risk patients. After recalibration, this distortion was eliminated, and p values for miscalibration were most often nonsignificant. Calibration was also excellent for subsets of higher-risk operations, though observed calibration was reduced due to instability associated with smaller sample sizes. Performance of NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator models was shown to be excellent and improved with recalibration. Surgeons and patients can rely on the calculator to provide accurate estimates of surgical risk. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Evaluating the Risk and Attractiveness of Romantic Partners When Confronted with Contradictory Cues
Hennessy, Michael; Fishbein, Martin; Curtis, Brenda; Barrett, Daniel W.
2010-01-01
Research shows that people engage in “risky” sex with “safe” partners and in “safer” sex with “riskier” partners. How is the determination of “risky” or “safe” status made? Factorial survey methodology was used to randomly construct descriptions of romantic partners based on attractive and/or risky characteristics. Respondents evaluated 20 descriptions for attractiveness, health risk, likelihood of going on a date, likelihood of unprotected sex, and likelihood of STD/HIV infection. Respondents were most attracted to and perceived the least risk from attractive descriptions and were least attracted to and perceived the most risk from the risky descriptions. The differences between the “conflicting information” descriptions are attributable to a primacy effect: descriptions that began with attractiveness information but end with risk information were evaluated more positively than those that began with risk and ended with attractive information. PMID:17028997
-
Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik
2016-04-01
The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition
-
Johnson, W B; Lall, R; Bongar, B; Nordlund, M D
1999-01-01
Objective personality assessment instruments offer a comparatively underutilized source of clinical data in attempts to evaluate and predict risk for suicide. In contrast to focal suicide risk measures, global personality inventories may be useful in identification of long-standing styles that predispose persons to eventual suicidal behavior. This article reviews the empirical literature regarding the efficacy of established personality inventories in predicting suicidality. The authors offer several recommendations for future research with these measures and conclude that such objective personality instruments offer only marginal utility as sources of clinical information in comprehensive suicide risk evaluations. Personality inventories may offer greatest utility in long-term assessment of suicide risk.
-
Isil, Canan Tulay; Yazici, Pinar; Bakir, Ihsan
2015-02-01
The use of blood products is not uncommon during cardiac surgery in elderly patients. We conducted this study to investigate the risk factors and adverse outcomes of increased red blood cell (RBC) transfusion in the patients aged ≥ 65 years undergoing cardiac surgery. During 1 year period, 288 patients (197 male/91 female) aged ≥ 65 years who underwent coronary and/or valvular surgery were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were stratified into groups on the basis of the number of transfusions received (< 4 and ≥ 4 U) which was classified as increased transfusion. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify risk factors for increased transfusion. The mean unit of RBC transfusion was 4.5 ± 3.1 and 55.9% (n = 161) of patients received ≥ 4 U RBC. The overall postoperative complication rate was 36% and significantly higher in those with ≥ 4 U) RBC transfusion (p < 0.01). Risk factors including age, EuroSCORE, and low body surface were significantly higher in patient with ≥ 4 U RBC transfusion. Besides, preoperative anemia, postoperative drainage volume, and fresh frozen plasma (FFP) transfusion during hospital stay were found to be significantly associated with increased transfusion requirements. No difference was observed in mortality (p = 0.13). These results suggest that improvement in blood transfusion policy in elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery requires elimination of preoperative anemia, careful attention to surgical hemostasis, and FFP use. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
-
Evaluation of potential risks from ash disposal site leachate
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Mills, W.B.; Loh, J.Y.; Bate, M.C.
1999-04-01
A risk-based approach is used to evaluate potential human health risks associated with a discharge from an ash disposal site into a small stream. The RIVRISK model was used to estimate downstream concentrations and corresponding risks. The modeling and risk analyses focus on boron, the constituent of greatest potential concern to public health at the site investigated, in Riddle Run, Pennsylvania. Prior to performing the risk assessment, the model is validated by comparing observed and predicted results. The comparison is good and an uncertainty analysis is provided to explain the comparison. The hazard quotient (HQ) for boron is predicted tomore » be greater than 1 at presently regulated compliance points over a range of flow rates. The reference dose (RfD) currently recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) was used for the analyses. However, the toxicity of boron as expressed by the RfD is now under review by both the U.S. EPA and the World Health Organization. Alternative reference doses being examined would produce predicted boron hazard quotients of less than 1 at nearly all flow conditions.« less
-
Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; Ockhuysen-Vermey, Caroline F; Henneman, Lidewij
2008-12-01
Effective communication of health risks plays an important role in enabling patients to make adequate decisions. There is little--though contradictory--evidence to indicate which format is most effective for communicating risks, and which risk format is preferred by counselees. In an experiment, subjects were presented health scenarios and risk information in different formats (percentages, frequencies, and population figures) and asked to evaluate the risks and make a decision based on these. Different risk formats had different effects on respondents' evaluation of the health risks presented. Contrary to our expectation, population figures were not evaluated as being the easiest format for all decision problems. Population figures were shown to have the biggest affective impact, and risks presented as population figures were also evaluated as significantly greater than the risks presented in other formats. The format of the presented risks influenced their decision in only one out of four decision-making situations, although in a second situation there was a similar trend. This study suggests that the risk format plays a role in the decision-making process, although it remains unclear which format is the most effective in terms of understanding. More experimental studies based on a theoretical analysis of the factors that promote effective risk communication are needed in the general population as well as in clinical settings with patients actually experiencing the risks and making the decisions.
-
A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.
Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina
2015-12-15
Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.
-
Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.
2012-04-01
Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both
-
Fahim, Germin; Toscani, Michael; Barone, Joseph A; Wang, Chris; Gandhi, Shivani
2018-01-01
The FDA's Presenting Risk Information draft guidance from May 2009 states that the time of risk versus benefit is a factor taken into consideration when evaluating audio and video direct-to-consumer (DTC) broadcasts. The objective of the study is to evaluate the proportion of risk narration on television (TV) advertisements in comparison to the actual proportion of serious adverse effects findings across select therapeutic areas. The study reviews prescription drug TV advertisements between the years 2010 and 2015 separated by therapeutic class. Indicators to assess risk versus benefit are as follows: total benefit time, total risk time, total ad time, percentage proportion of risk, and number of serious adverse effects (SAEs) listed in the package insert. The objective is establishing proportion of risk-to-benefit narration across therapeutic areas and the proportion of risk narration compared to the number of SAEs in the package insert. These outcomes will reflect whether TV advertisements abide by the "fair balance" rule and if the time spent on risk narrations is proportional to the number of SAEs across therapeutic areas. An analysis of risk versus benefit showed that there was a vast range of percentage differences in risk versus benefit narration across the products selected. The majority of the products narrated showed a 40% to 60% risk-to-benefit ratio. Six out of the 10 products evaluated communicated applicable black box warnings. There was variability among the SAE percentages presented between products. Lack of consistency exists between risks versus benefit proportions among different drug products.
-
Evaluation of Enhanced Risk Monitors for Use on Advanced Reactors
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Veeramany, Arun; Bonebrake, Christopher A.
This study provides an overview of the methodology for integrating time-dependent failure probabilities into nuclear power reactor risk monitors. This prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology was evaluated using a hypothetical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model, generated using a simplified design of a liquid-metal-cooled advanced reactor (AR). Component failure data from industry compilation of failures of components similar to those in the simplified AR model were used to initialize the PRA model. Core damage frequency (CDF) over time were computed and analyzed. In addition, a study on alternative risk metrics for ARs was conducted. Risk metrics that quantify the normalizedmore » cost of repairs, replacements, or other operations and management (O&M) actions were defined and used, along with an economic model, to compute the likely economic risk of future actions such as deferred maintenance based on the anticipated change in CDF due to current component condition and future anticipated degradation. Such integration of conventional-risk metrics with alternate-risk metrics provides a convenient mechanism for assessing the impact of O&M decisions on safety and economics of the plant. It is expected that, when integrated with supervisory control algorithms, such integrated-risk monitors will provide a mechanism for real-time control decision-making that ensure safety margins are maintained while operating the plant in an economically viable manner.« less
-
Evaluation of the carcinogenic risks at the influence of POPs.
Nazhmetdinova, Aiman; Kassymbayev, Adlet; Chalginbayeva, Altinay
2017-12-20
Kazakhstan is included in the list of environmentally vulnerable countries and Kyzylorda oblast in particular. This is due to its geographical, spatial and temporal and socioeconomic features. As part of the program "Integrated approaches in the management of public health in the Aral region", we have carried out an expertise on many samples of natural environments and products. Samples were selected in accordance with sampling procedures according to regulatory documents by specialists of the Pesticide Toxicology Laboratory. It is accredited by the State Standard of the Republic of Kazakhstan, for compliance with ST RK ISO/IEC 17025-2007 "General requirements for the competence of test and calibration laboratories". Gas chromatograph was used for the determination of residues of organochlorine pesticides. For the determination of dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyl was conducted on the gas chromatomass spectrometer with quadruple detector produce by Agilent Company, USA. To assess the risk, we carried out the mathematical calculations according to the risk of chemicals polluting (No P 2.1.10.1920-04, Russia). Calculation of the carcinogenic risk was carried out with the use of data on the size of the exposure and meanings of carcinogenic potential factors (slope factor and unit risk). The evaluation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), based on the previous results of the research concerning water, soil and food products, was held in five population settlements in Kyzylorda oblast villages: Ayteke bi, Zhalagash, Zhosaly, Shieli and Aralsk town. Pollution with the POPs in the environmental objects by means of exposition and evaluation of the carcinogenic risk to human health is confirmed by the data of the statistical reporting about some morbidity in Kyzylorda oblast, such as skin diseases and subcutaneous tissue, endocrine system diseases, pregnancy complications etc. The received levels of carcinogenic risks, which were first carried out in the Republic of
-
A unified framework for evaluating the risk of re-identification of text de-identification tools.
Scaiano, Martin; Middleton, Grant; Arbuckle, Luk; Kolhatkar, Varada; Peyton, Liam; Dowling, Moira; Gipson, Debbie S; El Emam, Khaled
2016-10-01
It has become regular practice to de-identify unstructured medical text for use in research using automatic methods, the goal of which is to remove patient identifying information to minimize re-identification risk. The metrics commonly used to determine if these systems are performing well do not accurately reflect the risk of a patient being re-identified. We therefore developed a framework for measuring the risk of re-identification associated with textual data releases. We apply the proposed evaluation framework to a data set from the University of Michigan Medical School. Our risk assessment results are then compared with those that would be obtained using a typical contemporary micro-average evaluation of recall in order to illustrate the difference between the proposed evaluation framework and the current baseline method. We demonstrate how this framework compares against common measures of the re-identification risk associated with an automated text de-identification process. For the probability of re-identification using our evaluation framework we obtained a mean value for direct identifiers of 0.0074 and a mean value for quasi-identifiers of 0.0022. The 95% confidence interval for these estimates were below the relevant thresholds. The threshold for direct identifier risk was based on previously used approaches in the literature. The threshold for quasi-identifiers was determined based on the context of the data release following commonly used de-identification criteria for structured data. Our framework attempts to correct for poorly distributed evaluation corpora, accounts for the data release context, and avoids the often optimistic assumptions that are made using the more traditional evaluation approach. It therefore provides a more realistic estimate of the true probability of re-identification. This framework should be used as a basis for computing re-identification risk in order to more realistically evaluate future text de-identification tools
-
Inoue, Yasushi; Katayama, Arata
2011-09-15
A two-scale evaluation concept of remediation technologies for a contaminated site was expanded by introducing life cycle costing (LCC) and economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA). The expanded evaluation index, the rescue number for soil (RN(SOIL)) with LCC and EIO-LCA, comprises two scales, such as risk-cost, risk-energy consumption or risk-CO(2) emission of a remediation. The effectiveness of RN(SOIL) with LCC and EIO-LCA was examined in a typical contamination and remediation scenario in which dieldrin contaminated an agricultural field. Remediation was simulated using four technologies: disposal, high temperature thermal desorption, biopile and landfarming. Energy consumption and CO(2) emission were determined from a life cycle inventory analysis using monetary-based intensity based on an input-output table. The values of RN(SOIL) based on risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO(2) emission were calculated, and then rankings of the candidates were compiled according to RN(SOIL) values. A comparison between three rankings showed the different ranking orders. The existence of differences in ranking order indicates that the scales would not have reciprocal compatibility for two-scale evaluation and that each scale should be used independently. The RN(SOIL) with LCA will be helpful in selecting a technology, provided an appropriate scale is determined. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Wang, Jiayang; Yu, Wenyuan; Jin, Qi; Li, Yaqiong; Liu, Nan; Hou, Xiaotong; Yu, Yang
2017-04-01
In this study we investigated the effect of post-transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) bleeding (per Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 [VARC-2] bleeding criteria) on 30-day postoperative mortality and examined the correlation between pre- or intraoperative variables and bleeding. Multiple electronic literature databases were searched using predefined criteria, with bleeding defined per Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 criteria. A total of 10 eligible articles with 3602 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analysis revealed that post-TAVI bleeding was associated with a 323% increase in 30-day postoperative mortality (odds risk [OR]; 4.23, 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.80-6.40; P < 0.0001) without significant study heterogeneity or publication bias. In subgroup analysis we found that patients with major bleeding/life-threatening bleeding showed a 410% increase in mortality compared with patients without bleeding (OR, 5.10; 95% CI, 3.17-8.19; P < 0.0001). Transapical access was associated with an 83% increase in the incidence of bleeding compared with transfemoral access (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.43-2.33; P < 0.0001). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that atrial fibrillation (AF) was independently correlated with TAVI-associated bleeding (OR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.33-5.21; P = 0.005). Meta-regression showed that potential modifiers like the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, mortality, the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), aortic valve area, mean pressure gradient, left ventricular ejection fraction, preoperative hemoglobin and platelet levels, and study design had no significant effects on the results of the meta-analysis. Post-TAVI bleeding, in particular, major bleeding/life-threatening bleeding, increased 30-day postoperative mortality. Transapical access was a significant bleeding risk factor. Preexisting AF independently correlated with TAVI-associated bleeding, likely
-
Assessing older drivers: a primary care protocol to evaluate driving safety risk.
Murden, Robert A; Unroe, Kathleen
2005-08-01
Most articles on elder drivers offer either general advice, or review testing protocols that divide drivers into two distinct groups: safe or unsafe. We believe it is unreasonable to expect any testing to fully separate drivers into just these two mutually exclusive groups, so we offer a protocol for a more practical approach. This protocol can be applied by primary care physicians. We review the justification for the many steps of this protocol, which have branches that lead to identifying drivers as low risk, high risk (for accidents) or needing further evaluation. Options for further evaluation are provided.
-
Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen
2017-09-12
Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.
-
Deng, Xinyang
2017-01-01
Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model. PMID:28895905
-
Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bernaschi, M.; Torosantucci, L.; Uboldi, A.
2007-03-01
We describe a simple but effective method for the estimation of the market price of risk. The basic idea is to compare the results obtained by following two different approaches in the application of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. In the first case, we apply the non-linear least squares method to cross sectional data (i.e., all rates of a single day). In the second case, we consider the short rate obtained by means of the first procedure as a proxy of the real market short rate. Starting from this new proxy, we evaluate the parameters of the CIR model by means of martingale estimation techniques. The estimate of the market price of risk is provided by comparing results obtained with these two techniques, since this approach makes possible to isolate the market price of risk and evaluate, under the Local Expectations Hypothesis, the risk premium given by the market for different maturities. As a test case, we apply the method to data of the European Fixed Income Market.
-
[How to evaluate psychological risks: an ethics of aesthetic demand in orthodontics].
Benkimoun, Franck
2015-12-01
Evaluating risks is part of the day-to-day practice of all orthodontists. Most of the time we forget that healing a patient also requires an evaluation of what is called the psychological risk. Indeed, focusing on harmonisation matters, we tend to omit that patient's requests, especially aesthetic requests, may conceal psychological problems. Such a risk is even higher when it comes to orthodontic-surgical protocols, as the physical changes are more radical. We will discuss the specificities of aesthetical demand, its links with the social discourse and the way self-esteem and reflection in the mirror are closely intermingled. Should we forget to take into account the psychological dimension of any patient, this could be a breach of professional ethics. We will furthermore consider the means we have to recognize patients with a high psychological risk. It is not in our hands to help these patients psychologically. It is in the hands of a mental health specialist, whose adress and phone number we should know in order to refer our patients to him/her. © EDP Sciences, SFODF, 2015.
-
Risks and Challenges of Surgery for Aortic Prosthetic Valve Endocarditis.
Grubitzsch, Herko; Tarar, Waharat; Claus, Benjamin; Gabbieri, Davide; Falk, Volkmar; Christ, Torsten
2018-03-01
Prosthetic valve endocarditis is the most severe form of infective endocarditis. This study assessed the risks and challenges of surgery for aortic prosthetic valve endocarditis. In total, 116 consecutive patients (98 males, age 65.2±12.7years), who underwent redo-surgery for active aortic prosthetic valve endocarditis between 2000 and 2014, were reviewed. Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors for aortic root destructions as well as for morbidity and mortality. Median follow-up was 3.8 years (0-13.9 years). Aortic root destructions (42 limited and 29 multiple lesions) were associated with early prosthetic valve endocarditis and delayed diagnosis (≥14 d), but not with mortality. There were 16 (13.8%) early (≤30 d) and 32 (27.6%) late (>30 days) deaths. Survival at 1, 5, and 10 years was 72±4.3%, 56±5.4%, and 46±6.4%, respectively. The cumulative incidence of death, reinfection, and reoperation was 19.0% at 30days and 36.2% at 1year. Delayed diagnosis, concomitant procedures, and EuroSCORE II >20% were predictors for early mortality and need for mechanical circulatory support, age >70years, and critical preoperative state were predictors for late mortality. In their absence, survival at 10 years was 70±8.4%. Reinfections and reoperations occurred more frequently if ≥1 risk factor for endocarditis and aortic root destructions were present. At 10 years, freedom from reinfection and reoperation was 89±4.2% and 91±4.0%. The risks of death, reinfection, and reoperation are significant within the first year after surgery for aortic prosthetic valve endocarditis. Early diagnosis and aortic root destructions are the most important challenges, but advanced age, critical preoperative state, and the need for mechanical circulatory support determine long-term survival. Copyright © 2017 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B
-
Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire
Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight
2010-01-01
We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...
-
Evaluating Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk Assessments Using Anomaly Data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Squire, Michael
2017-01-01
The accuracy of micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk assessments can be difficult to evaluate. A team from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has completed a study that compared MMOD-related failures on operational satellites to predictions of how many of those failures should occur using NASA's TM"s MMOD risk assessment methodology and tools. The study team used the Poisson probability to quantify the degree of inconsistency between the predicted and reported numbers of failures. Many elements go into a risk assessment, and each of those elements represent a possible source of uncertainty or bias that will influence the end result. There are also challenges in obtaining accurate and useful data on MMOD-related failures.
-
Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.
Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M
2012-12-01
Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Neyens, Jacques C L; Dijcks, Béatrice P J; van Haastregt, Jolanda C M; de Witte, Luc P; van den Heuvel, Wim J A; Crebolder, Harry F J M; Schols, Jos M G A
2006-03-21
Demented nursing home patients are at high risk for falls. Falls and associated injuries can have a considerable influence on the autonomy and quality of life of patients. The prevention of falls among demented patients is therefore an important issue. In order to intervene in an efficient way in this group of patients, it is important to systematically evaluate the fall risk profile of each individual patient so that for each patient tailor-made preventive measures can be taken. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to develop a feasible and evidence based multidisciplinary fall risk evaluation tool to be used for tailoring preventive interventions to the needs of individual demented patients. To develop this multidisciplinary fall risk evaluation tool we have chosen to combine scientific evidence on the one hand and experts' opinions on the other hand. Firstly, relevant risk factors for falling in elderly persons were gathered from the literature. Secondly, a group of Dutch experts in the field of falls and fall prevention in the elderly were consulted to judge the suitability of these risk factors for use in a multidisciplinary fall risk evaluation tool for demented nursing home patients. Thirdly, in order to generate a compact list of the most relevant risk factors for falling in demented elderly, all risk factors had to fulfill a set of criteria indicating their relevance for this specific target population. Lastly the final list of risk factors resulting from the above mentioned procedure was presented to the expert group. The members were also asked to give their opinion about the practical use of the tool. The multidisciplinary fall risk evaluation tool we developed includes the following items: previous falls, use of medication, locomotor functions, and (correct) choice and use of assistive and protective devices. The tool is developed for the multidisciplinary teams of the nursing homes. This evidence and practice based multidisciplinary fall
-
Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats
Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe
2012-01-01
We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...
-
Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework.
Birnbaum, Marvin L; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P; Loretti, Alessandro
2016-06-01
A disaster is a failure of resilience to an event. Mitigating the risks that a hazard will progress into a destructive event, or increasing the resilience of a society-at-risk, requires careful analysis, planning, and execution. The Disaster Logic Model (DLM) is used to define the value (effects, costs, and outcome(s)), impacts, and benefits of interventions directed at risk reduction. A Risk-Reduction Framework, based on the DLM, details the processes involved in hazard mitigation and/or capacity-building interventions to augment the resilience of a community or to decrease the risk that a secondary event will develop. This Framework provides the structure to systematically undertake and evaluate risk-reduction interventions. It applies to all interventions aimed at hazard mitigation and/or increasing the absorbing, buffering, or response capacities of a community-at-risk for a primary or secondary event that could result in a disaster. The Framework utilizes the structure provided by the DLM and consists of 14 steps: (1) hazards and risks identification; (2) historical perspectives and predictions; (3) selection of hazard(s) to address; (4) selection of appropriate indicators; (5) identification of current resilience standards and benchmarks; (6) assessment of the current resilience status; (7) identification of resilience needs; (8) strategic planning; (9) selection of an appropriate intervention; (10) operational planning; (11) implementation; (12) assessments of outputs; (13) synthesis; and (14) feedback. Each of these steps is a transformation process that is described in detail. Emphasis is placed on the role of Coordination and Control during planning, implementation of risk-reduction/capacity building interventions, and evaluation. Birnbaum ML , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP , Loretti A . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):309-325.
-
Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors.
Gabardi, Steven
2013-03-01
To review the history of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) with the mammalian target of rapamycin (mToR) inhibitors, evaluate their required REMS elements, and delineate the reasons for them being released from their REMS requirements. Articles were identified through a literature search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-July 2012) using the search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, everolimus, sirolimus and organ transplant (individual organs also were searched). Information from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturers of the mToR inhibitors was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. The mToR inhibitors have been associated with several potential risks, including proteinuria, graft thrombosis, and wound-healing complications. The Food and Drug Administration approved REMS programs for both sirolimus and everolimus. The manufacturers of both medications complied with the components of their approved REMS, but after less than 2 years, both medications have been relieved of their REMS obligations. The only element of the sirolimus REMS was a medication guide, whereas the everolimus REMS consisted of a medication guide and a communication plan. The sirolimus REMS was implemented more than 10 years after its initial approval by the Food and Drug Administration, but was released from its REMS requirement within 7 months of its implementation. The everolimus REMS was instituted upon initial approval and was removed approximately 2 years later. Both medications' REMS were always intended to educate health care providers and patients about the potential risks associated with this transplant immunosuppressant. Transplant practitioners should be familiar with the mToR inhibitors' associated risks and properly educate patients regarding the
-
Pre-publication version of the Federal Register notice announcing public meetings on Processes for Risk Evaluation and Chemical Prioritization for Risk Evaluation under the Amended Toxic Substances Control Act.
-
Evaluation of risk factors for vancomycin-induced nephrotoxicity.
Park, So Jin; Lim, Na Ri; Park, Hyo Jung; Yang, Jae Wook; Kim, Min-Ji; Kim, Kyunga; In, Yong Won; Lee, Young Mee
2018-05-09
Background Vancomycin is a glycopeptide antibiotic of choice for the treatment of serious infections caused by multi-resistant Gram-positive bacteria. However, vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity (VAN) often limits its use. Previous data suggested a few risk factors of VAN, including higher mean vancomycin trough level, higher daily doses, old age, long duration of vancomycin therapy, and concomitant nephrotoxins. Objective To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of VAN and determine whether higher vancomycin trough concentrations were associated with a greater risk for VAN. Settings A retrospective, observational, single-center study at the 1960-bed university-affiliated tertiary care hospital (Samsung Medical Center), Seoul, Korea. Method A retrospective analysis of adult patients who received vancomycin parenterally in a tertiary care medical center from March 1, 2013 to June 30, 2013 was performed. We excluded patients with a baseline serum creatinine level > 2 mg/dL and those who had a history of end-stage renal disease and dialysis at baseline. The clinical characteristics were compared between patients with nephrotoxicity and those without nephrotoxicity to identify the risk factors associated with VAN. Main outcome measure Incidence of VAN and VAN-associated risk factors were analyzed. Results Of the 315 vancomycin-treated patients, nephrotoxicity occurred in 15.2% of the patients. In multivariate analysis, higher vancomycin trough concentrations of > 20 mg∕L (OR 9.57, 95% CI 2.49-36.83, p < 0.01) and intensive care unit (ICU) residence (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.41-5.82, p < 0.01) were independently associated with VAN. Conclusion Our findings suggest that higher vancomycin trough levels and ICU residence might be associated with a greater risk for VAN. More careful monitoring of vancomycin serum trough levels and patient status might facilitate the timely prevention of VAN.
-
EVALUATING RISK-PREDICTION MODELS USING DATA FROM ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS.
Wang, L E; Shaw, Pamela A; Mathelier, Hansie M; Kimmel, Stephen E; French, Benjamin
2016-03-01
The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., "false negatives"). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models.
-
[Clinical evaluation of periodontium in pregnant women with risk of preterm birth].
Kurnatowska, Anna; Stankiewicz, Anna
2006-05-01
The aim of the study was to evaluate condition of the periodontium in pregnant women with pathological progress of the pregnancy, clinically and to compare it to periodontium in pregnant women in good health. Over the last years, the studies have described that periodontitis caused by dental plaque, could be the risk factor for preterm birth and low birth weight. This study was performed in 80 pregnant women, 40 with pathologic pregnancy and 40 with normal pregnancy in it. Periodontal Indexes were used to evaluate periodontium. In the searching group gingivitis gravidarum haemorrhagica diffusa and hyperplastica generalisata were dominating. In the control group gingivitis gravidatum simplex and hyperplastica localisata were observed. More severe manifestation of gingivitis gravidarum was noticed in pregnant women with risk of preterm low birth. We did not prove correlation between amount of bacterial dental plaque in pregnant women and risk of preterm low birth weight.
-
Extensions of criteria for evaluating risk prediction models for public health applications.
Pfeiffer, Ruth M
2013-04-01
We recently proposed two novel criteria to assess the usefulness of risk prediction models for public health applications. The proportion of cases followed, PCF(p), is the proportion of individuals who will develop disease who are included in the proportion p of individuals in the population at highest risk. The proportion needed to follow-up, PNF(q), is the proportion of the general population at highest risk that one needs to follow in order that a proportion q of those destined to become cases will be followed (Pfeiffer, R.M. and Gail, M.H., 2011. Two criteria for evaluating risk prediction models. Biometrics 67, 1057-1065). Here, we extend these criteria in two ways. First, we introduce two new criteria by integrating PCF and PNF over a range of values of q or p to obtain iPCF, the integrated PCF, and iPNF, the integrated PNF. A key assumption in the previous work was that the risk model is well calibrated. This assumption also underlies novel estimates of iPCF and iPNF based on observed risks in a population alone. The second extension is to propose and study estimates of PCF, PNF, iPCF, and iPNF that are consistent even if the risk models are not well calibrated. These new estimates are obtained from case-control data when the outcome prevalence in the population is known, and from cohort data, with baseline covariates and observed health outcomes. We study the efficiency of the various estimates and propose and compare tests for comparing two risk models, both of which were evaluated in the same validation data.
-
Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.
2008-01-01
Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk
-
Weigl, M; Müller, A; Angerer, P; Petru, R
2016-03-01
The implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at the workplace often fails in practice. One reason is the lack of competence of those who are in charge of the process. We present a checklist for the effective implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at workplace. This tool shall support occupational physicians in the preparation, planning and implementation of a psychosocial risks assessment process. Based on a stepwise development and validation process, specific steps and factors for the successful implementation were identified qualitatively with 15 occupational physicians and experts. This was conducted in a 2-stage Delphi study. In the following, the identified steps and factors were transferred into a checklist. Subsequently, the checklist was evaluated in a focus group of occupational physicians (user evaluation). Thereafter, the contents were subjected to an expert evaluation. Our checklist for the effective implementation of the process of psychosocial risk management in the workplace aims to strengthen the competence of occupational physicians, especially in the implementation of risk assessments in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
-
Opinions of Nurses About the Evaluation of Risk of Falling Among Inpatients.
Atay, Selma; Vurur, Sevda; Erdugan, Necla
Patient falls and fall-related injuries are an important problem for patients, relatives, caregivers, and the health system at large. This study aims to identify opinions of nurses about the risk of falling among patients staying in hospitals. This study uses a qualitative descriptive design and employs a semistructured interview method to identify the opinions and experiences of nurses about patient falls. This study evaluated the opinions of a total of 12 staff nurses. It was found that nurses consider patients in the postoperative period to be most prone to falls. They think that most falls take place during transfers and that the medical diagnosis of the patient plays a crucial role in fall incidents. The most important problem associated with patient falls was symptoms of traumatic brain injury. According to the participating nurses, the risk of fall for every patient should be evaluated upon admission. Measures that the nurses take against patient falls include raising the bed's side rails and securing the bed brakes. The findings of this research suggest that in-service training programs about the evaluation of the risk of falling should be organized for nurses. Guidelines should be developed for patients with different levels of risk of falling. It is suggested that nurses should be in charge of training patients who are conscious, their relatives, and caregiver personnel. The training of nurses and caregivers helps to prevent the falls of inpatients.
-
[Evaluation of metabolic rate for a correct risk assessment of thermal environments].
Del Ferraro, Simona; Molinaro, V
2010-01-01
The new law n.81/2008 recognises microclimate as one of physical agents for which risk assessment becomes obligatory. To achieve this it is necessary to evaluate suitable indices, based on heat balance equation, which depend on six parameters: the first four are related to thermal environment and the last two are related to the worker (metabolic rate and thermal insulation). The first four parameters are directly measurable in situ by using a multiple data acquisition unit provided with suitable sensors. Parameters related to the worker are not directly measurable. This aspect represents one of the problems which can lead to an inaccurate risk assessment. Aim of the paper was to identify a method which leads to a correct evaluation of the metabolic rate related to the worker under study. It was decided to follow the procedures described by the standard UNI EN ISO 8996:2005 which presents four different levels to evaluate metabolic rate, each one with an increasing degree of accuracy. Seven workers were selected: three performed light tasks and the other four did heavy work. The study showed that the results appear to be in acceptable agreement in the case of light work while there were detectable differences in value for heavy tasks. The Authors believe it is necessary to stress the importance of a suitable estimation of the metabolic rate in order to carry out a correct risk assessment which quantifies the risk exactly.
-
Proposal of a method for evaluating tsunami risk using response-surface methodology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fukutani, Y.
2017-12-01
Information on probabilistic tsunami inundation hazards is needed to define and evaluate tsunami risk. Several methods for calculating these hazards have been proposed (e.g. Løvholt et al. (2012), Thio (2012), Fukutani et al. (2014), Goda et al. (2015)). However, these methods are inefficient, and their calculation cost is high, since they require multiple tsunami numerical simulations, therefore lacking versatility. In this study, we proposed a simpler method for tsunami risk evaluation using response-surface methodology. Kotani et al. (2016) proposed an evaluation method for the probabilistic distribution of tsunami wave-height using a response-surface methodology. We expanded their study and developed a probabilistic distribution of tsunami inundation depth. We set the depth (x1) and the slip (x2) of an earthquake fault as explanatory variables and tsunami inundation depth (y) as an object variable. Subsequently, tsunami risk could be evaluated by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation, assuming that the generation probability of an earthquake follows a Poisson distribution, the probability distribution of tsunami inundation depth follows the distribution derived from a response-surface, and the damage probability of a target follows a log normal distribution. We applied the proposed method to a wood building located on the coast of Tokyo Bay. We implemented a regression analysis based on the results of 25 tsunami numerical calculations and developed a response-surface, which was defined as y=ax1+bx2+c (a:0.2615, b:3.1763, c=-1.1802). We assumed proper probabilistic distribution for earthquake generation, inundation height, and vulnerability. Based on these probabilistic distributions, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 years. We clarified that the expected damage probability of the studied wood building is 22.5%, assuming that an earthquake occurs. The proposed method is therefore a useful and simple way to evaluate tsunami risk using a response
-
Koehly, Laura M; Morris, Bronwyn A; Skapinsky, Kaley; Goergen, Andrea; Ludden, Amanda
2015-11-13
Common diseases such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer are etiologically complex with multiple risk factors (e.g., environment, genetic, lifestyle). These risk factors tend to cluster in families, making families an important social context for intervention and lifestyle-focused disease prevention. The Families Sharing Health Assessment and Risk Evaluation (SHARE) workbook was designed as an educational tool outlining family health history based risk of heart disease, type 2 diabetes, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer. The current paper describes the steps taken to develop and evaluate the workbook employing a user-centered design approach. The workbook was developed in four steps, culminating in an evaluation focusing on understanding and usability of the tool. The evaluation was based on two Phases of data collected from a sample of mothers of young children in the Washington, D.C., area. A baseline assessment and follow-up approximately two weeks after receipt of the workbook were conducted, as well as focus groups with participants. The design of the workbook was refined in response to participant feedback from the first evaluation Phase and subsequently re-evaluated with a new sample. After incorporating user-based feedback and revising the workbook, Phase 2 evaluation results indicated that understanding of the workbook components improved for all sections (from 6.26 to 6.81 on a 7-point scale). In addition, 100% of users were able to use the algorithm to assess their disease risk and over 60% used the algorithm to assess family members' disease risk. At follow-up, confidence to increase fruit, vegetable and fiber intake improved significantly, as well. The Families SHARE workbook was developed and evaluated resulting in a family health history tool that is both understandable and usable by key stakeholders. This educational tool will be used in intervention studies assessing the effectiveness of family genomics health educators who use the Families
-
Obstetric simulation as a risk control strategy: course design and evaluation.
Gardner, Roxane; Walzer, Toni B; Simon, Robert; Raemer, Daniel B
2008-01-01
Patient safety initiatives aimed at reducing medical errors and adverse events are being implemented in Obstetrics. The Controlled Risk Insurance Company (CRICO), Risk Management Foundation (RMF) of the Harvard Medical Institutions pursued simulation as an anesthesia risk control strategy. Encouraged by their success, CRICO/RMF promoted simulation-based team training as a risk control strategy for obstetrical providers. We describe the development, implementation, and evaluation of an obstetric simulation-based team training course grounded in crisis resource management (CRM) principles. We pursued systematic design of course development, implementation, and evaluation in 3 phases, including a 1-year or more posttraining follow-up with self-assessment questionnaires. The course was highly rated overall by participants immediately after the course and 1-year or more after the course. Most survey responders reported having experienced a critical clinical event since the course and that various aspects of their teamwork had significantly or somewhat improved as a result of the course. Most (86%) reported CRM principles as useful for obstetric faculty and most (59%) recommended repeating the simulation course every 2 years. A simulation-based team-training course for obstetric clinicians was developed and is a central component of CRICO/RMF's obstetric risk management incentive program that provides a 10% reduction in annual obstetrical malpractice premiums. The course was highly regarded immediately and 1 year or more after completing the course. Most survey responders reported improved teamwork and communication in managing a critical obstetric event in the interval since taking the course. Simulation-based CRM training can serve as a strategy for mitigating adverse perinatal events.
-
Takahashi, Renata Ferreira; Gryschek, Anna Luíza F P L; Izumi Nichiata, Lúcia Yasuko; Lacerda, Rúbia Aparecida; Ciosak, Suely Itsuko; Gir, Elucir; Padoveze, Maria Clara
2010-05-01
There is growing demand for the adoption of qualification systems for health care practices. This study is aimed at describing the development and validation of indicators for evaluation of biologic occupational risk control programs. The study involved 3 stages: (1) setting up a research team, (2) development of indicators, and (3) validation of the indicators by a team of specialists recruited to validate each attribute of the developed indicators. The content validation method was used for the validation, and a psychometric scale was developed for the specialists' assessment. A consensus technique was used, and every attribute that obtained a Content Validity Index of at least 0.75 was approved. Eight indicators were developed for the evaluation of the biologic occupational risk prevention program, with emphasis on accidents caused by sharp instruments and occupational tuberculosis prevention. The indicators included evaluation of the structure, process, and results at the prevention and biologic risk control levels. The majority of indicators achieved a favorable consensus regarding all validated attributes. The developed indicators were considered validated, and the method used for construction and validation proved to be effective. Copyright (c) 2010 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.
Dingus, Thomas A; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan
2016-03-08
The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk.
-
Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data
Dingus, Thomas A.; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F.; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan
2016-01-01
The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk. PMID:26903657
-
Mycophenolate fetal toxicity and risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.
Kim, M; Rostas, S; Gabardi, S
2013-06-01
The mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations are one of the most commonly used immunosuppressants in the United States. However, these agents carry a black box warning regarding their use during pregnancy due to an association with increased risk of miscarriage and congenital defects. To ensure that the benefits of MPA outweigh the risks, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) required all manufacturers of MPA products to propose risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS). Four years after initially calling for proposals, the FDA approved a single shared REMS system in September 2012. The elements of the MPA REMS include a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guide, which was previously FDA-approved in 2008, should continue to be distributed to patients, and the ETASU requires physicians to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the "Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgement Form." A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry is available, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA products among patients and possibly practitioners. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.
-
Rizzoli-Córdoba, Antonio; Campos-Maldonado, Martha Carmen; Vélez-Andrade, Víctor Hugo; Delgado-Ginebra, Ismael; Baqueiro-Hernández, César Iván; Villasís-Keever, Miguel Ángel; Reyes-Morales, Hortensia; Ojeda-Lara, Lucía; Davis-Martínez, Erika Berenice; O'Shea-Cuevas, Gabriel; Aceves-Villagrán, Daniel; Carrasco-Mendoza, Joaquín; Villagrán-Muñoz, Víctor Manuel; Halley-Castillo, Elizabeth; Sidonio-Aguayo, Beatriz; Palma-Tavera, Josuha Alexander; Muñoz-Hernández, Onofre
The Child Development Evaluation (or CDE Test) was developed in Mexico as a screening tool for child developmental problems. It yields three possible results: normal, slow development or risk of delay. The modified version was elaborated using the information obtained during the validation study but its properties according to the base population are not known. The objective of this work was to establish diagnostic confirmation of developmental delay in children 16- to 59-months of age previously identified as having risk of delay through the CDE Test in primary care facilities. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in one Mexican state. CDE test was administered to 11,455 children 16- to 59-months of age from December/2013 to March/2014. The eligible population represented the 6.2% of the children (n=714) who were identified at risk of delay through the CDE Test. For inclusion in the study, a block randomization stratified by sex and age group was performed. Each participant included in the study had a diagnostic evaluation using the Battelle Development Inventory, 2 nd edition. From the 355 participants included with risk of delay, 65.9% were male and 80.2% were from rural areas; 6.5% were false positives (Total Development Quotient ˃90) and 6.8% did not have any domain with delay (Domain Developmental Quotient <80). The proportion of delay for each domain was as follows: communication 82.5%; cognitive 80.8%; social-personal 33.8%; motor 55.5%; and adaptive 41.7%. There were significant differences in the percentages of delay both by age and by domain/subdomain evaluated. In 93.2% of the participants, developmental delay was corroborated in at least one domain evaluated. Copyright © 2015 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.
-
Wang, Cheng; Qian, Xin; Li, Hui-ming; Sun, Yi-xuan; Wang, Jin-hua
2016-05-15
Contents of heavy metals involving As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from atmospheric deposition in 10 parks of Nanjing were analyzed. The pollution level, ecological risk and health risk were evaluated using Geoaccumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Index and the US EPA Health Risk Assessment Model, respectively. The results showed that the pollution levels of heavy metals in Swallow Rock Park, Swallow Rock Park and Mochou Lake Park were higher than the others. Compared to other cities such as Changchun, Wuhan and Beijing, the contents of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition of parks in Nanjing were higher. The evaluation results of Geoaccumulation Index showed that Pb was at moderate pollution level, Zn and Cu were between moderate and serious levels, while Cd was between serious and extreme levels. The ecological risk level of Cd was high. The assessment results of Health Risk Assessment Model indicated that there was no non-carcinogenic risk for all the seven heavy metals. For carcinogenic risk, the risks of Cd, Cr and Ni were all negligible (Risk < 1 x 10⁻⁶), whereas As had carcinogenic risk possibility but was considered to be acceptable (10⁻⁶ < Risk < 10⁻⁴).
-
Evaluation of a peer-led drug abuse risk reduction project for runaway/homeless youths.
Fors, S W; Jarvis, S
1995-01-01
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Drug Prevention in Youth risk reduction program that was implemented in shelters for runaway/homeless youths in the Southeastern United States. The program focuses on knowledge, attitudes and skills that can help this group of high risk young people minimize the serious negative consequences of drug abuse. An evaluation strategy was developed so comparisons could be made between peer-led, adult-led and non-intervention groups. Dependent samples t tests and least squares ANCOVAS were used to measure pretest-posttest differences both within and between groups. Results indicate that the peer-led groups were more successful than the other two groups, and that program effects were the most powerful with the youngest group of shelter clients. Process evaluation revealed important factors related to group leader training and group management. It is concluded that well-trained and motivated peer/near peer leaders have particularly valuable contributions to make with regard to drug abuse risk reduction for shelter clients.
-
Evaluations of alcohol consequences moderate social anxiety risk for problematic drinking.
Nitka, Danit; O'Connor, Roisin M
2017-02-01
The link between social anxiety (SA) and problematic drinking is complex; this seems predominantly true among young adults. Individuals high on SA are thought to be particularly sensitive to the negative effects of alcohol, which should deter them from drinking. Yet, some evidence suggests that those high on SA continue to drink despite experiencing negative alcohol-related consequences (NACs) (Morris, Stewart, & Ham, 2005). Although traditionally, researchers assume NACs are perceived as averse, emerging evidence suggests these are not categorically viewed as negative by undergraduates. The study goal was to test whether evaluations of NACs moderate the effect of SA on problematic drinking. It was hypothesized that high SA would predict elevated alcohol use and number of NACs experienced, but only for those who evaluate NACs as less negative. Undergraduate drinkers (N=130, 80 women) completed self-reports of social anxiety, NAC evaluations (ratings of how 'bad' experiencing each alcohol-related consequence would be), alcohol use, and NACs experienced. Regression analyses revealed that NAC evaluations moderated the effect of SA on number of NACs experienced, but not the effect of SA on weekly alcohol use. Simple slopes analyses showed that high SA was associated with elevated NACs experienced for those with weak negative NAC evaluations, controlling for alcohol use. These findings help explain the mixed SA-problematic drinking literature by identifying perceptions of NACs as an important moderator of SA risk for experiencing NACs. Moreover, clinical interventions aimed at reducing SA risk for undergraduate problematic drinking may benefit from targeting NAC evaluations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.
Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert
2017-04-15
This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Chew, Nicholas; Hon, Jimmy Kim Fatt; Yip, Wei Luen James; Chan, Siew Pang; Poh, Kian-Keong; Kong, William Kok-Fai; Teoh, Kristine Leok Kheng; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Tan, Huay Cheem; Tay, Edgar Lik Wui
2017-01-01
INTRODUCTION Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an effective treatment for high-risk or inoperative patients with severe aortic stenosis. Given the unique characteristics of Asian populations, questions regarding mid-term outcomes in Asians undergoing TAVI have yet to be addressed. We evaluated the two-year clinical outcomes of TAVI in an Asian population using Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 definitions. METHODS This prospective study recruited 59 patients from a major academic medical centre in Singapore. The main outcomes were two-year survival rates, peri-procedural complications, symptom improvement, valvular function and assessment of learning curve. RESULTS Mean age was 76.8 years (61.0% male), mean body surface area 1.6 m2 and mean logistic EuroSCORE 18.7%. Survival was 93.2%, 86.0% and 79.1% at 30 days, one year and two years, respectively. At 30 days post TAVI, the rate of stroke was 1.7%, life-threatening bleeding 5.1%, acute kidney injury 25.0%, major vascular complication 5.1%, and new permanent pacemaker implantation 6.8%. 29.3% of TAVI patients were rehospitalised (47.1% cardiovascular-related) within one year. These composite outcomes were measured: device success (93.2%); early safety (79.7%); clinical efficacy (66.1%); and time-related valve safety (84.7%). Univariate analysis found these predictors of two-year all-cause mortality: logistic EuroSCORE (hazard ratio [HR] 1.07; p < 0.001); baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (HR 0.97; p = 0.048); and acute kidney injury (HR 5.33; p = 0.022). Multivariate analysis identified non-transfemoral TAVI as a predictor of cardiovascular-related two-year mortality (HR 14.64; p = 0.008). CONCLUSION Despite the unique clinical differences in Asian populations, this registry demonstrated favourable mid-term clinical and safety outcomes in Asians undergoing TAVI. PMID:27516113
-
Chew, Nicholas; Hon, Jimmy Kim Fatt; Yip, Wei Luen James; Chan, Siew Pang; Poh, Kian-Keong; Kong, William Kok-Fai; Teoh, Kristine Leok Kheng; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Tan, Huay Cheem; Tay, Edgar Lik Wui
2017-09-01
Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an effective treatment for high-risk or inoperative patients with severe aortic stenosis. Given the unique characteristics of Asian populations, questions regarding mid-term outcomes in Asians undergoing TAVI have yet to be addressed. We evaluated the two-year clinical outcomes of TAVI in an Asian population using Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 definitions. This prospective study recruited 59 patients from a major academic medical centre in Singapore. The main outcomes were two-year survival rates, peri-procedural complications, symptom improvement, valvular function and assessment of learning curve. Mean age was 76.8 years (61.0% male), mean body surface area 1.6 m 2 and mean logistic EuroSCORE 18.7%. Survival was 93.2%, 86.0% and 79.1% at 30 days, one year and two years, respectively. At 30 days post TAVI, the rate of stroke was 1.7%, life-threatening bleeding 5.1%, acute kidney injury 25.0%, major vascular complication 5.1%, and new permanent pacemaker implantation 6.8%. 29.3% of TAVI patients were rehospitalised (47.1% cardiovascular-related) within one year. These composite outcomes were measured: device success (93.2%); early safety (79.7%); clinical efficacy (66.1%); and time-related valve safety (84.7%). Univariate analysis found these predictors of two-year all-cause mortality: logistic EuroSCORE (hazard ratio [HR] 1.07; p < 0.001); baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (HR 0.97; p = 0.048); and acute kidney injury (HR 5.33; p = 0.022). Multivariate analysis identified non-transfemoral TAVI as a predictor of cardiovascular-related two-year mortality (HR 14.64; p = 0.008). Despite the unique clinical differences in Asian populations, this registry demonstrated favourable mid-term clinical and safety outcomes in Asians undergoing TAVI. Copyright: © Singapore Medical Association
-
McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M
2016-08-01
To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P < 0.00001) and octreotide (odds ratio 3.30, P < 0.00001). When adjusting for risk, performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.
-
SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY
German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.
2011-01-01
This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043
-
Evaluating the Risks of High Altitude Travel in Chronic Liver Disease Patients.
Luks, Andrew M; Swenson, Erik R
2015-06-01
Luks, Andrew M., and Erik R. Swenson. Clinician's Corner: Evaluating the risks of high altitude travel in chronic liver disease patients. High Alt Med Biol 16:80-88, 2015.--With improvements in the quality of health care, people with chronic medical conditions are experiencing better quality of life and increasingly participating in a wider array of activities, including travel to high altitude. Whenever people with chronic diseases travel to this environment, it is important to consider whether the physiologic responses to hypobaric hypoxia will interact with the underlying medical condition such that the risk of acute altitude illness is increased or the medical condition itself may worsen. This review considers these questions as they pertain to patients with chronic liver disease. While the limited available evidence suggests there is no evidence of liver injury or dysfunction in normal individuals traveling as high as 5000 m, there is reason to suspect that two groups of cirrhosis patients are at increased risk for problems, hepatopulmonary syndrome patients, who are at risk for severe hypoxemia following ascent, and portopulmonary hypertension patients who may be at risk for high altitude pulmonary edema and acute right ventricular dysfunction. While liver transplant patients may tolerate high altitude exposure without difficulty, no information is available regarding the risks of long-term residence at altitude with chronic liver disease. All travelers with cirrhosis require careful pre-travel evaluation to identify conditions that might predispose to problems at altitude and develop risk mitigation strategies for these issues. Patients also require detailed counseling about recognition, prevention, and treatment of acute altitude illness and may require different medication regimens to prevent or treat altitude illness than used in healthy individuals.
-
Van Meer, Ryan; Hohenadel, Karin; Fitzgerald-Husek, Alanna; Warshawsky, Bryna; Sider, Doug; Schwartz, Brian; Nelder, Mark P
To determine the Ontario-specific risk of local and travel-related Zika virus transmission in the context of a public health emergency of international concern, Public Health Ontario (PHO) completed a rapid risk assessment (RRA) on January 29, 2016, using a newly developed RRA guidance tool. The RRA concluded that risk of local mosquito-borne transmission was low, with a high risk of imported cases through travel. The RRA was updated 3 times based on predetermined triggers. An independent evaluation assessed both the application of the RRA guidance tool (process evaluation) and the usefulness of the RRA (outcome evaluation). We conducted face-to-face, semi-structured interviews with 7 individuals who participated in the creation or review of the Zika virus RRA and 4 end-users at PHO and the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care. An inductive thematic analysis of responses was undertaken, whereby themes were directly informed by the data. The process evaluation determined that most steps outlined in the RRA guidance tool were adhered to, including forming a cross-functional writing team, clarifying the scope and describing context, completing the RRA summary report, and updating the RRA based on predefined triggers. The outcome evaluation found that end-users judged the Zika virus RRA as evidence-informed, useful, consistent, and timely. The evaluation established that the locally tailored guidance tool, adapted from national and international approaches to RRAs, facilitated a systematic, evidence-informed, and timely formal RRA process at PHO for the Zika virus RRA, which met the needs of end-users. Based on the evaluation, PHO will modify future RRAs by incorporating some flexibility into the literature review process to support timeliness of the RRA, explicitly describing the limitations of studies used to inform the RRA, and refining risk algorithms to better suit emerging infectious disease threats. It is anticipated that these refinements will improve upon the
-
Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan
2016-01-01
In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from
-
Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shepherd, Christena C.
2017-01-01
security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes
-
Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.
The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city
-
Alli, Oluseun O; Singh, Inder M; Holmes, David R; Pulido, Juan N; Park, Soon J; Rihal, Charanjit S
2012-11-01
In patients with poor left ventricular function and severe left main or multivessel coronary disease, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery has been the preferred therapy. However, a number of these patients are either inoperable or poor surgical candidates due to comorbid conditions and previous cardiac surgical procedures. These patients are generally poor candidates for standard percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) techniques. A hybrid PCI approach with hemodynamic support may be a viable strategy for these patients. We report our experience using the TandemHeart percutaneous left ventricular assist device during high-risk PCI. Retrospective cross-sectional analysis of prospectively collected data in 54 patients undergoing high-risk PCI using the TandemHeart device for support. Hemodynamic and clinical data were collected and analyzed. Baseline clinical characteristics were as follows: mean age 72 ± 1.7 years, males 78%, median ejection fraction 20%, mean serum creatinine 1.6 ± 0.3 2 mg/dL, recent myocardial infarction 52%, COPD 33%, previous CABG 50%, diabetes mellitus 41%, and hypertension 83%. The median SYNTAX score was 33, and the median Jeopardy score was 10. The predicted surgical revascularization mortality was 13% by the Society for Thoracic Surgery risk score and 33% by Euroscore. There was a significant decrease in right and left heart pressures (P < 0.05) with a concomitant increase in the cardiac output from 4.7 to 5.7 L/min (P = 0.03) during TandemHeart support. Left main and multivessel PCI was performed in 62% of patients, and rotablation was used in 48%. Procedural success rate was 97%, whereas 30-day and 6 month survival were 90% and 87%, respectively. Major vascular complications occurred in 13% of cases. None of our patients developed contrast induced nephropathy or needed dialysis. High-risk PCI with percutaneous left ventricular support using TandemHeart is a viable therapeutic strategy for a select subset of patients at very
-
2013-01-01
Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202
-
EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report, Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites. The report provides an overview of an approach for assessing risk to ...
-
Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program
Andrade, Susan E.; Davis, Robert L.; Cheetham, T. Craig; Cooper, William O.; Li, De-Kun; Amini, Thushi; Beaton, Sarah J.; Dublin, Sascha; Hammad, Tarek A.; Pawloski, Pamala A.; Raebel, Marsha A.; Smith, David H.; Staffa, Judy A.; Toh, Sengwee; Dashevsky, Inna; Haffenreffer, Katherine; Lane, Kimberly; Platt, Richard; Scott, Pamela E.
2011-01-01
To describe a program to study medication safety in pregnancy, the Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program (MEPREP). MEPREP is a multi-site collaborative research program developed to enable the conduct of studies of medication use and outcomes in pregnancy. Collaborators include the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and researchers at the HMO Research Network, Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California, and Vanderbilt University. Datasets have been created at each site linking healthcare data for women delivering an infant between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2008 and infants born to these women. Standardized data files include maternal and infant characteristics, medication use, and medical care at 11 health plans within 9 states; birth certificate data were obtained from the state departments of public health. MEPREP currently involves more than 20 medication safety researchers and includes data for 1,221,156 children delivered to 933,917 mothers. Current studies include evaluations of the prevalence and patterns of use of specific medications and a validation study of data elements in the administrative and birth certificate data files. MEPREP can support multiple studies by providing information on a large, ethnically and geographically diverse population. This partnership combines clinical and research expertise and data resources to enable the evaluation of outcomes associated with medication use during pregnancy. PMID:22002179
-
Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program.
Andrade, Susan E; Davis, Robert L; Cheetham, T Craig; Cooper, William O; Li, De-Kun; Amini, Thushi; Beaton, Sarah J; Dublin, Sascha; Hammad, Tarek A; Pawloski, Pamala A; Raebel, Marsha A; Smith, David H; Staffa, Judy A; Toh, Sengwee; Dashevsky, Inna; Haffenreffer, Katherine; Lane, Kimberly; Platt, Richard; Scott, Pamela E
2012-10-01
To describe a program to study medication safety in pregnancy, the Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program (MEPREP). MEPREP is a multi-site collaborative research program developed to enable the conduct of studies of medication use and outcomes in pregnancy. Collaborators include the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and researchers at the HMO Research Network, Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California, and Vanderbilt University. Datasets have been created at each site linking healthcare data for women delivering an infant between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2008 and infants born to these women. Standardized data files include maternal and infant characteristics, medication use, and medical care at 11 health plans within 9 states; birth certificate data were obtained from the state departments of public health. MEPREP currently involves more than 20 medication safety researchers and includes data for 1,221,156 children delivered to 933,917 mothers. Current studies include evaluations of the prevalence and patterns of use of specific medications and a validation study of data elements in the administrative and birth certificate data files. MEPREP can support multiple studies by providing information on a large, ethnically and geographically diverse population. This partnership combines clinical and research expertise and data resources to enable the evaluation of outcomes associated with medication use during pregnancy.
-
Perceived Risk in College Selection: Differences in Evaluative Criteria Used by Students and Parents
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Warwick, Jacquelyn; Mansfield, Phylis M.
2003-01-01
Students and parents base college selection on how well the college will overcome the perceived financial, social, psychological, physical, and functional risks associated with the college experience. Nineteen criteria associated with these risks were evaluated for significant differences between students and parents as well as for their level of…
-
Net Reclassification Indices for Evaluating Risk-Prediction Instruments: A Critical Review
Kerr, Kathleen F.; Wang, Zheyu; Janes, Holly; McClelland, Robyn L.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Pepe, Margaret S.
2014-01-01
Net reclassification indices have recently become popular statistics for measuring the prediction increment of new biomarkers. We review the various types of net reclassification indices and their correct interpretations. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of quantifying the prediction increment with these indices. For pre-defined risk categories, we relate net reclassification indices to existing measures of the prediction increment. We also consider statistical methodology for constructing confidence intervals for net reclassification indices and evaluate the merits of hypothesis testing based on such indices. We recommend that investigators using net reclassification indices should report them separately for events (cases) and nonevents (controls). When there are two risk categories, the components of net reclassification indices are the same as the changes in the true-positive and false-positive rates. We advocate use of true- and false-positive rates and suggest it is more useful for investigators to retain the existing, descriptive terms. When there are three or more risk categories, we recommend against net reclassification indices because they do not adequately account for clinically important differences in shifts among risk categories. The category-free net reclassification index is a new descriptive device designed to avoid pre-defined risk categories. However, it suffers from many of the same problems as other measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the category-free index can mislead investigators by overstating the incremental value of a biomarker, even in independent validation data. When investigators want to test a null hypothesis of no prediction increment, the well-established tests for coefficients in the regression model are superior to the net reclassification index. If investigators want to use net reclassification indices, confidence intervals should be calculated using bootstrap
-
Discomfort Intolerance: Evaluation of a Potential Risk Factor for Anxiety Psychopathology
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Schmidt, Norman B.; Richey, J. Anthony; Cromer, Kiara R.; Buckner, Julia D.
2007-01-01
Discomfort intolerance, defined as an individual difference in the capacity to tolerate unpleasant bodily sensations, is a construct recently posited as a risk factor for panic and anxiety psychopathology. The present report used a biological challenge procedure to evaluate whether discomfort intolerance predicts fearful responding beyond the…
-
Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleury, Dominique; Bomfim, João A. S.; Metz, Sébastien; Bouillard, Jacques X.; Brignon, Jean-Marc
2011-07-01
Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.
-
Event-related potentials show taste and risk effects on food evaluation.
Ma, Qingguo; Wang, Cuicui; Wu, Yifan; Wang, Xiaoyi
2014-07-09
Tastes and claims about unhealthy food are important factors that affect consumption. This study investigated the correlation of the event-related potential (ERP) of the evaluation of processing of food information with the task of positive judgment. Given the information on possible diseases that arise with food consumption, sweet-tasting food elicited more conflict than salty food, and this conflict was reflected by a negative ERP component at 250-500 ms (N400). Moreover, the late positive wave at 500-800 ms that was evoked by presentation of food with the names of chronic diseases that could arise from the consumption of such food was larger than that evoked when acute diseases were presented. Sweet-tasting food caused a more intense conflict with disease-related risk than salty food, and chronic diseases aroused a stronger emotional fear than acute diseases. These findings provide new insights into the N400 component and the neurocognitive processes of evaluating food combined with taste and risk information.
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Chunhui; Su, Zhixiong; Wang, Yuqing; Liu, Yiqun; Qi, Yongwei
2017-03-01
Investment management is an important part of Power Grid Corp. The new electricity reform put forward the general idea of "three release, three strengthening, one independence", which brings new risks to the investment management of the Power Grid Corp. First, the paper analyzes the new risks faced by the Power Grid Corp investment under the background of the electricity reform. Second, the AHP-Fuzzy evaluation model of investment risk of Power Grid Corp is established, and taking Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau as an example, the paper evaluated its risk level of investment plan in 2017. Finally, in the context of the electricity reform, the strategy of the Power Grid Corp's investment risk is proposed.
-
van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik
2017-04-01
Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Four databases were searched for HEEs of PM-based strategies. Two reviewers independently selected eligible articles. A checklist was compiled to score items focusing on general characteristics of HEEs of PMs, model characteristics and quality of HEEs, evidence on PMs typically used in the HEEs, and the specific challenges in performing HEEs of PMs. After screening 791 abstracts, 171 full texts, and reference checking, 40 eligible HEEs evaluating 60 PMs were identified. In these HEEs, PM strategies were compared with current practice (n = 32; 80%), to other stratification methods for patient management (n = 19; 48%), to an extended PM (n = 9; 23%), or to alternative PMs (n = 5; 13%). The PMs guided decisions on treatment (n = 42; 70%), further testing (n = 18; 30%), or treatment prioritization (n = 4; 7%). For 36 (60%) PMs, only a single decision threshold was evaluated. Costs of risk prediction were ignored for 28 (46%) PMs. Uncertainty in outcomes was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analyses in 22 (55%) HEEs. Despite the huge number of PMs in the medical literature, HEE of PMs remains rare. In addition, we observed great variety in their quality and methodology, which may complicate interpretation of HEE results and implementation of PMs in practice. Guidance on HEE of PMs could encourage and standardize their application and enhance methodological quality, thereby improving adequate use of PM strategies. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Evaluation and simplification of the occupational slip, trip and fall risk-assessment test
NAKAMURA, Takehiro; OYAMA, Ichiro; FUJINO, Yoshihisa; KUBO, Tatsuhiko; KADOWAKI, Koji; KUNIMOTO, Masamizu; ODOI, Haruka; TABATA, Hidetoshi; MATSUDA, Shinya
2016-01-01
Objective: The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the efficacy of the occupational slip, trip and fall (STF) risk assessment test developed by the Japan Industrial Safety and Health Association (JISHA). We further intended to simplify the test to improve efficiency. Methods: A previous cohort study was performed using 540 employees aged ≥50 years who took the JISHA’s STF risk assessment test. We conducted multivariate analysis using these previous results as baseline values and answers to questionnaire items or score on physical fitness tests as variables. The screening efficiency of each model was evaluated based on the obtained receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: The area under the ROC obtained in multivariate analysis was 0.79 when using all items. Six of the 25 questionnaire items were selected for stepwise analysis, giving an area under the ROC curve of 0.77. Conclusion: Based on the results of follow-up performed one year after the initial examination, we successfully determined the usefulness of the STF risk assessment test. Administering a questionnaire alone is sufficient for screening subjects at risk of STF during the subsequent one-year period. PMID:27021057
-
Improving Ascertainment of Risk Factors for HIV Infection: Results of a Group-Randomized Evaluation
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Harrison, Kathleen McDavid; Pals, Sherri L.; Sajak, Tammy; Chase, Jennifer; Kajese, Tebitha
2010-01-01
To allow appropriate allocation of prevention and care funding, HIV/AIDS surveillance data must include risk factor information, currently available for less than 70% of cases reported in the United States. The authors evaluated an intervention consisting of provider training and materials to improve risk factor reporting. Facilities were matched…
-
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Chen, Chong
2016-01-01
This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…
-
Serving the Needs of At-Risk Refugee Youth: A Program Evaluation
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McBrien, J. Lynn
2006-01-01
Refugee students, although frequently subsumed under the "immigrant" heading, often suffer from effects of significant trauma that can make them more vulnerable than children of voluntary immigrant families. This study evaluated a program created specifically for refugee youth at-risk for academic failure and "social death." The program goals…
-
Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dudley, E.C.
1998-05-01
On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commissionmore » was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.« less
-
Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.
2017-12-01
Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.
-
Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.
Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi
2016-04-01
Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.
-
Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong
2016-01-01
As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.
-
Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong
2016-04-01
As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.
-
A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications
Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M.
2017-01-01
Objectives. To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). Methods. The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001–2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. Results. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees’ data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Conclusions. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies. PMID:28892436
-
A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications.
Savoia, Elena; Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M
2017-09-01
To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001-2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees' data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies.
-
Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan
2016-01-01
In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from
-
Nunez, Carlos; Bauman, Adrian; Egger, Sam; Sitas, Freddy; Nair-Shalliker, Visalini
2017-04-01
Physical activity (PA) has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular diseases, but the evidence linking PA with lower cancer risk is inconclusive. We examined the independent and interactive effects of PA and obesity using body mass index (BMI) as a proxy for obesity, on the risk of developing prostate (PC), postmenopausal breast (BC), colorectal (CRC), ovarian (OC) and uterine (UC) cancers. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for cancer specific confounders, in 6831 self-reported cancer cases and 1992 self-reported cancer-free controls from the Cancer Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study, using unconditional logistic regression. For women, BMI was positively associated with UC risk; specifically, obese women (BMI≥30kg/m 2 ) had nearly twice the risk of developing UC compared to women with healthy-BMI-range (<25kg/m 2 ) (OR=1.99;CI:1.31-3.03). For men, BMI was also positively associated with the risk of developing any cancer type, CRC and PC. In particular, obese men had 37% (OR=1.37;CI:1.11-1.70), 113% (OR=2.13;CI:1.55-2.91) and 51% (OR=1.51;CI:1.17-1.94) higher risks of developing any cancer, CRC and PC respectively, when compared to men with healthy-BMI-range (BMI<25kg/m 2 ). Among women, PA was inversely associated with the risks of CRC, UC and BC. In particular, the highest level of PA (versus nil activity) was associated with reduced risks of CRC (OR=0.60;CI:0.44-0.84) and UC (OR=0.47;CI:0.27-0.80). Reduced risks of BC were associated with low (OR=0.66;CI:0.51-0.86) and moderate (OR=0.72;CI:0.57-0.91) levels of PA. There was no association between PA levels and cancer risks for men. We found no evidence of an interaction between BMI and PA in the CLEAR study. These findings suggest that PA and obesity are independent cancer risk factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Evaluation of an HIV risk reduction intervention among African-American homosexual and bisexual men.
Peterson, J L; Coates, T J; Catania, J; Hauck, W W; Acree, M; Daigle, D; Hillard, B; Middleton, L; Hearst, N
1996-03-01
To provide the first data which evaluates an HIV risk reduction intervention designed to reduce HIV high-risk sexual behavior in African-American homosexual and bisexual men. Participants (n = 318) were recruited from bars, bathhouses, and erotic bookstores, and through homosexual African-American organizations, street out-reach, media advertisements, and personal referrals of individuals aware of the study. Participants were randomized into a single or triple session experimental group or a wait-list control group. Both experimental interventions included AIDS risk education, cognitive-behavioral self-management training, assertion training, and attempts to develop self-identity and social support. Data collection involved assessments of self-reported changes in sexual behavior at 12- and 18-month follow-up. Participants in the triple session intervention greatly reduced their frequency of unprotected anal intercourse (from 46 to 20%) at the 12-month follow-up evaluation and (from 45% to 20%) at the 18-month follow-up evaluation. However, levels of risky behavior for the control group remained constant (from 26 to 23% and from 24 to 18%) at 12- and 18-month follow-up evaluations, respectively. In addition, levels of risky behavior for the single session intervention decreased only slightly (from 47 to 38% and from 50 to 38%) at the 12- and 18-month follow-up evaluations, respectively. Results were interpreted to demonstrate the superiority of a triple session over a single session intervention in reducing risky sexual behavior in this cohort.
-
In March 2004, ORD's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) received a request from the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF) relating to the evaluation of ecological risk to vertebrate and benthic invertebrate receptors from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds...
-
Trans-catheter aortic valve implantation after previous aortic homograft surgery.
Drews, Thorsten; Pasic, Miralem; Buz, Semih; Unbehaun, Axel
2011-12-01
In patients with previous heart surgery, the operative risk is elevated during conventional aortic valve re-operations. Trans-catheter aortic valve implantation is a new method for the treatment of high-risk patients. Nevertheless, this new procedure carries potential risks in patients with previous homograft implantation in aortic position. Between April 2008 and February 2011, 345 consecutive patients (mean EuroSCORE (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation): 38 ± 20%; mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Mortality Score: 19 ± 16%; mean age: 80 ± 8 years; 111 men and 234 women) underwent trans-apical aortic valve implantation. In three patients, previous aortic homograft implantation had been performed. Homograft degeneration causing combined valve stenosis and incompetence made re-operation necessary. In all three patients, the aortic valve could be implanted using the trans-apical approach, and the procedure was successful. In two patients, there was slight paravalvular leakage of the aortic prosthesis and the other patient had slight central leakage. Neither ostium obstruction nor mitral valve damage was observed. Trans-catheter valve implantation can be performed successfully after previous homograft implantation. Particular care should be taken to achieve optimal valve positioning, not to obstruct the ostium of the coronary vessels due to the changed anatomic situation and not to cause annulus rupture. Copyright © 2011 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin
2010-01-01
Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan's current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 x 10(-8) (95th percentile: 3.20 x 10(-7)). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures.
-
Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin
2009-01-01
Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125
-
NT-proBNP in cardiac surgery: a new tool for the management of our patients?
Reyes, Guillermo; Forés, Gloria; Rodríguez-Abella, R Hugo; Cuerpo, Gregorio; Vallejo, José Luis; Romero, Carlos; Pinto, Angel
2005-06-01
Our aim was to determine NT-proBNP levels in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and if those levels are related to any of the baseline clinical characteristics of patients before surgery or any of the outcomes or events after surgery. Prospective, analytic study including 83 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Preoperatory and postoperatory data were collected. NT-proBNP levels were measured before surgery, the day of surgery, twice the following day and every 24 h until a total of nine determinations. Venous blood was obtained by direct venipuncture and collected into serum separator tubes. Samples were centrifuged within 20 min from sampling and stored for a maximum of 12 h at 2-8 degrees C before the separation of serum. Serum was stored frozen at -40 degrees C and thawed only once at the time of analysis. Mean age was 65+/-11.8 years. An Euroscore 6 was found in 30% of patients. NYHA classification was as follows: I:27.7%; II:47%; III:25.3%. Preoperative atrial fibrilation occurred in 20.5% of patients. After surgery 18.1% of patients required inotropes. Only one death was recorded. A great variability was found in preoperative NT-proBNP levels; 759.9 (S.D.:1371.1); CI 95%: 464.9 to 1054.9 pg/ml, with a wide range (6.39-8854). Median was 366.5 pg/ml. Preoperative NT-proBNP levels were unrelated to the type of surgery (CABG vs. others), sex, age and any of the cardiovascular risk factors. NT-proBNP levels were higher in high risk patients (Euroscore 6); (P=0.021), worse NYHA class (P=0.020) and patients with preoperative atrial fibrilation (m 1767 (2205) vs m 621 (1017); P=0.001). After surgery NT-proBNP levels started increasing the following day until the fourth day (P=0.03), decreasing afterwards (P=0.019). These levels were significantly higher in patients requiring inotropes after surgery (P<0.001). We did not find any relationship between NT-proBNP levels and complications rate (P=0.59). Preoperative NT-proBNP levels depend on preoperative
-
Evaluating life-safety risk of fieldwork at New Zealand's active volcanoes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deligne, Natalia; Jolly, Gill; Taig, Tony; Webb, Terry
2014-05-01
Volcano observatories monitor active or potentially active volcanoes. Although the number and scope of remote monitoring instruments and methods continues to grow, in-person field data collection is still required for comprehensive monitoring. Fieldwork anywhere, and especially in mountainous areas, contains an element of risk. However, on volcanoes with signs of unrest, there is an additional risk of volcanic activity escalating while on site, with potentially lethal consequences. As an employer, a volcano observatory is morally and sometimes legally obligated to take reasonable measures to ensure staff safety and to minimise occupational risk. Here we present how GNS Science evaluates life-safety risk for volcanologists engaged in fieldwork on New Zealand volcanoes with signs of volcanic unrest. Our method includes several key elements: (1) an expert elicitation for how likely an eruption is within a given time frame, (2) quantification of, based on historical data when possible, given a small, moderate, or large eruption, the likelihood of exposure to near-vent processes, ballistics, or surge at various distances from the vent, and (3) estimate of fatality rate given exposure to these volcanic hazards. The final product quantifies hourly fatality risk at various distances from a volcanic vent; various thresholds of risk (for example, zones with more than 10-5 hourly fatality risk) trigger different levels of required approval to undertake work. Although an element of risk will always be present when conducting fieldwork on potentially active volcanoes, this is a first step towards providing objective guidance for go/no go decisions for volcanic monitoring.
-
Asturias, E.J.; Corral, J.E.; Quezada, J.
2010-01-01
Febrile neutropenia is a well-known entity in children with cancer, being responsible for the high risk for infection that characterizes this population. For this reason, cancer patients are hospitalized so that they can receive prophylactic care. Risk factors have been used to classify patients at a high risk for developing bacteremia. The present study evaluates whether those risk factors (C-reactive protein, hypotension, leukemia as the cancer type, thrombocytopenia, recent chemotherapy, and acute malnutrition) apply to patients at the Unidad Nacional de Oncología Pediátrica. We evaluated 102 episodes in 88 patients, in whom risk factors and blood cultures were tested. We observed no statistical relationship between the six risk factors and bacteremia. There was also no relationship between bacteremia and the simultaneous presence of two, three, or more risk factors. A significant relationship of C-reactive protein and platelet count with other outcome factors was observed. PMID:20404980
-
JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.
Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A
Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Evaluation of a risk index for advanced proximal neoplasia of the colon.
Ruco, Arlinda; Stock, David; Hilsden, Robert J; McGregor, S Elizabeth; Paszat, Lawrence F; Saskin, Refik; Rabeneck, Linda
2015-01-01
A clinical risk index that uses distal colorectal findings at flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) in conjunction with easily determined risk factors for advanced proximal neoplasia (APN) may be useful for tailoring or prioritizing screening with colonoscopy. To conduct an external evaluation of a previously published risk index in a large, well-characterized cohort. Cross-sectional. Teaching hospital and colorectal cancer screening center. A total of 5139 asymptomatic persons aged 50 to 74 (54.9% women) with a mean age (±SD) of 58.3 (±6.2) years. Between 2003 and 2011, all participants underwent a complete screening colonoscopy and removal of all polyps. Participants were classified as low, intermediate, or high risk for APN, based on their composite risk index scores. The concordance or c-statistic was used to measure discriminating ability of the risk index. A total of 167 persons (3.2%) had APN. The prevalence of those with APN among low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories was 2.1%, 2.9%, and 6.5%, respectively. High-risk individuals were 3.2 times more likely to have APN compared with those in the low-risk category. The index did not discriminate well between those in the low- and intermediate-risk categories. The c-statistic for the overall index was 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.66). Distal colorectal findings were derived from colonoscopies and not FS itself. The risk index discriminated between those at low risk and those at high risk, but it had limited ability to discriminate between low- and intermediate-risk categories for prevalent APN. Information on other risk factors may be needed to tailor, or prioritize, access to screening colonoscopy. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Letourneau, Elizabeth J.; McCart, Michael R.; Sheidow, Ashli J.; Mauro, Pia M.
2016-01-01
There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N = 45) or usual services (US; N = 60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. PMID:27629581
-
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Laughlin, M. S.; Murray, J. D.; Wear, M. L.; Van Baalen, M.
2016-01-01
INTRODUCTION Back pain during spaceflight has often been attributed to the lengthening of the spinal column due to the absence of gravity during both short and long-duration missions. Upon landing and re-adaptation to gravity, the spinal column reverts back to its original length thereby causing some individuals to experience pain and muscular spasms, while others experience no ill effects. With International Space Station (ISS) missions, cases of back pain and injury are more common post-flight, but little is known about the potential risk factors. Thus, the purpose of this project was to perform an initial evaluation of reported post-flight back pain and injury cases to relevant spaceflight risk factors in United States astronauts that have completed an ISS mission. METHODS All US astronauts who completed an ISS mission between Expeditions (EXP) 1 and 41 (2000-2015) were included in this evaluation. Forty-five astronauts (36 males and 9 females) completed 50 ISS missions during the study time period, as 5 astronauts completed 2 ISS missions. Researchers queried medical records of the 45 astronauts for occurrences of back pain and injury. A case was defined as any reported event of back pain or injury to the cervical, thoracic, lumbar, sacral, or coccyx spine regions. Data sources for the cases included the Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record; Astronaut Strength, Conditioning and Rehabilitation electronic documentation; the Private Medical Conference tool; and the Space Medicine Operations Team records. Post-flight cases were classified as an early case if reported within 45 days of landing (R + 45) or a late case if reported from R + 46 to R + 365 days after landing (R + 1y). Risk factors in the astronaut population for back pain include age, sex, prior military service, and prior history of back pain. Additionally, spaceflight specific risk factors such as type of landing vehicle and onboard exercise countermeasures were included to evaluate their
-
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2004-03-11
This document is the US DOT evaluation Risk Assessment report for Phase I of the ORANGES field operational test. This document consolidates working papers and incorporates an assessment of issues, risks, mitigation strategies and lessons learned look...
-
Forbes, David; Lewis, Virginia; Varker, Tracey; Phelps, Andrea; O'Donnell, Meaghan; Wade, Darryl J; Ruzek, Josef I; Watson, Patricia; Bryant, Richard A; Creamer, Mark
2011-01-01
International clinical practice guidelines for the management of psychological trauma recommend Psychological First Aid (PFA) as an early intervention for survivors of potentially traumatic events. These recommendations are consensus-based, and there is little published evidence assessing the effectiveness of PFA. This is not surprising given the nature of the intervention and the complicating factors involved in any evaluation of PFA. There is, nevertheless, an urgent need for stronger evidence evaluating its effectiveness. The current paper posits that the implementation and evaluation of PFA within high risk organizational settings is an ideal place to start. The paper provides a framework for a phasic approach to implementing PFA within such settings and presents a model for evaluating its effectiveness using a logic- or theory-based approach which considers both pre-event and post-event factors. Phases 1 and 2 of the PFA model are pre-event actions, and phases 3 and 4 are post-event actions. It is hoped that by using the Phased PFA model and evaluation method proposed in this paper, future researchers will begin to undertake the important task of building the evidence about the most effective approach to providing PFA in high risk organizational and community disaster settings.
-
Evaluation of a Peer-Led Drug Abuse Risk Reduction Project for Runaway/Homeless Youths.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Fors, Stuart W.; Jarvis, Sara
1995-01-01
Evaluates the Drug Prevention in Youth risk reduction program that was implemented in shelters for runaway/homeless youths in the southeastern United States. An evaluation strategy was developed allowing for comparisons between peer-led, adult-led and nonintervention groups. Well-trained and motivated peer/near-peer leaders made particularly…
-
Sexton, Ken
2012-01-01
Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298
-
Low Oxygen Delivery as a Predictor of Acute Kidney Injury during Cardiopulmonary Bypass.
Newland, Richard F; Baker, Robert A
2017-12-01
Low indexed oxygen delivery (DO 2 i) during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) has been associated with an increase in the likelihood of acute kidney injury (AKI), with critical thresholds for oxygen delivery reported to be 260-270 mL/min/m 2 . This study aims to explore whether a relationship exists for oxygen delivery during CPB, in which the integral of amount and time below a critical threshold, is associated with the incidence of postoperative AKI. The area under the curve (AUC) with DO 2 i during CPB above or below 270 mL/min/m 2 was calculated as a metric of oxygen delivery in 210 patients undergoing CPB. To determine the influence of low oxygen delivery on AKI, a multivariate logistic regression model was developed including AUC < 0, Euroscore II to provide preoperative risk factor adjustment, and incidence of red blood cell transfusion to adjust for the influence of transfusion. Having an AUC < 0 for an oxygen delivery threshold of 270 mL/min/m 2 during CPB was an independent predictor of AKI, after adjustment for Euroscore II and transfusion [OR 2.74, CI {1.01-7.41}, p = .047]. These results support that a relationship exists for oxygen delivery during CPB, in which the integral of amount and time below a critical threshold is associated with the incidence of postoperative AKI.
-
The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework is implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the ...
-
The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework was implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the...
-
Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M
2013-03-01
To review the components of the Congressional mandate for risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) managed by the Food and Drug Administration and assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplant arena. A non-date-limited search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-June 2012) was conducted by using the following search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, and organ transplant, including a query of the individual organs. Information from the Federal Register and the Food and Drug Administration was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. Elements of REMS programs may consist of 3 levels: a medication guide, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use. A medication guide is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patients' decision making, and enhance medication adherence. Communication plans help educate health care providers and encourage adherence with REMS. The elements to assure safe use is a restrictive process implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure safe access for patients to products with known serious risks. In transplant medicine, REMS currently exist for belatacept (medication guide and communication plan) and the mycophenolic acid derivatives (medication guide and elements to assure safe use). REMS are another step in the evolution of the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents. Use of REMS in solid-organ transplant is becoming common. Transplant clinicians must provide required patient education and become involved with other aspects of REMS implementation to reduce the serious risks of pharmaceuticals and to improve patients' outcomes.
-
Spruit, Anouk; Wissink, Inge B; Stams, Geert Jan J M
2016-01-01
According to the risk-need-responsivity model of offender, assessment and rehabilitation treatment should target specific factors that are related to re-offending. This study evaluates the residential care of Filipino juvenile offenders using the risk-need-responsivity model. Risk analyses and criminogenic needs assessments (parenting style, aggression, relationships with peers, empathy, and moral reasoning) have been conducted using data of 55 juvenile offenders in four residential facilities. The psychological care has been assessed using a checklist. Statistical analyses showed that juvenile offenders had a high risk of re-offending, high aggression, difficulties in making pro-social friends, and a delayed socio-moral development. The psychological programs in the residential facilities were evaluated to be poor. The availability of the psychological care in the facilities fitted poorly with the characteristics of the juvenile offenders and did not comply with the risk-need-responsivity model. Implications for research and practice are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
2016-07-19
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA or Agency) is announcing the availability of guidances for industry entitled ``E2C(R2) Periodic Benefit-Risk Evaluation'' (E2C(R2) guidance) and ``E2C(R2) Periodic Benefit-Risk Evaluation Report--Questions and Answers'' (E2C(R2) Q&A guidance). These guidances were prepared under the auspices of the International Council for Harmonisation (ICH), formerly the International Conference on Harmonisation. The E2C(R2) draft guidance, issued April 11, 2012, updated and combined two ICH guidances, ``E2C Clinical Safety Data Management: Periodic Safety Update Reports for Marketed Drugs'' (E2C guidance) and ``Addendum to E2C Clinical Safety Data Management: Periodic Safety Update Reports for Marketed Drugs'' (addendum to the E2C guidance). The E2C(R2) guidance is intended to describe the format, content, and timing of a Periodic Benefit-Risk Evaluation Report (PBRER) for an approved drug or biologic, and it finalizes the draft guidance. The E2C(R2) Q&A guidance is a supplementary guidance that is intended to clarify key issues in the E2C(R2) guidance.
-
Akça, Barış; Erdil, Nevzat; Colak, Mehmet Cengiz; Disli, Olcay Murat; Battaloglu, Bektas; Colak, Cemil
2018-03-06
We aimed to investigate the risk factors of post-coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) atrial fibrillation (AF) in male and female patients without any history of AF, to identify the sex-specific risk factors, and to examine the effect of sex-specific risk factors on the overall population. This retrospective study was conducted using the hospital database with 4,758 patients who underwent CABG surgery. Among them, 2,836 patients with complete data participated in this study. The female patients were divided into two groups as patients who developed new-onset AF after CABG and those who did not. The relationship between the patients' variables and risk factors of post-CABG AF was examined. The overall incidence of post CABG AF was 12.9% (386/2,836). Sex-specific incidence of AF was similar: 3.2% (91/690) and 12.9% (277/2146) in female and male patients, respectively ( p = 0.849). Multiple analysis revealed the independent risk factors for male and female patients, respectively: mean age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.057, OR = 1,076), age over 65 years (OR = 2.156, OR = 2.736), the European System For Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation Scores (EuroSCORE) (OR = 1.13, OR = 1.218), COPD (OR = 1.589, OR = 1.789), BUN level (OR = 1.026, OR = 1.019), mean cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time (OR = 1.007, OR = 1.010), prolonged CPB time (OR = 1.604, OR = 2.309), mean cross-clamp time (OR = 1.009, OR = 1.017), need of inotropic support (OR = 2.249, OR = 2.731), and mean mechanical ventilation time (VT) (OR = 1.026, OR = 1.027).Low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (OR = 1.419), left ventricular (LV) aneurysm repair (OR = 1.533), carotid artery disease (OR = 1.750), prolonged VT (OR = 1.729), and use of intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) (OR = 2.436) were found to be the risk factors only for male AF patients.Unstable angina (OR = 1.969), right coronary artery (RCA
-
User embracement with risk classification in an emergency care unit: an evaluative study.
Hermida, Patrícia Madalena Vieira; Nascimento, Eliane Regina Pereira do; Echevarría-Guanilo, Maria Elena; Brüggemann, Odaléa Maria; Malfussi, Luciana Bihain Hagemann de
2018-01-01
Objective Describing the evaluation of the Structure, Process and Outcome of User Embracement with Risk Classification of an Emergency Care Unit from the perspective of physicians and nurses. Method An evaluative, descriptive, quantitative study developed in Santa Catarina. Data were collected using a validated and adapted instrument consisting of 21 items distributed in the dimensions of Structure (facilities), Process (activities and relationships in providing care) and Outcome (care effects). In the analysis, descriptive statistics and the Mean Ranking and Mean Score calculations were applied. Results The sample consisted of 37 participants. From the 21 evaluated items, 11 (52.4%) had a Mean Ranking between 3 and 4, and none of them reached the maximum ranking (5 points). "Prioritization of severe cases" and "Primary care according to the severity of the case" reached a higher Mean Ranking (4.5), while "Flowchart discussion" had the lowest Ranking (2.1). The dimensions of Structure, Process and Outcome reached mean scores of 23.9, 21.9 and 25.5, respectively, indicating a Precarious evaluation (17.5 to 26.1 points). Conclusion User Embracement with Risk Classification is precarious, especially regarding the Process which obtained a lower satisfaction level from the participants.
-
[Evaluation of Suicide Risk Levels in Hospitals: Validity and Reliability Tests].
Macagnino, Sandro; Steinert, Tilman; Uhlmann, Carmen
2018-05-01
Examination of in-hospital suicide risk levels concerning their validity and their reliability. The internal suicide risk levels were evaluated in a cross sectional study of in 163 inpatients. A reliability check was performed via determining interrater-reliability of senior physician, therapist and the responsible nurse. Within the scope of the validity check, we conducted analyses of criterion validity and construct validity. For the total sample an "acceptable" to "good" interrater-reliability (Kendalls W = .77) of suicide risk levels were obtained. Schizophrenic disorders showed the lowest values, for personality disorders we found the highest level of interrater-reliability. When examining the criterion validity, Item-9 of the BDI-II is substantial correlated to our suicide risk levels (ρ m = .54, p < .01). Within the scope of construct validity check, affective disorders showed the highest correlation (ρ = .77), compatible also with "convergent validity". They differed with schizophrenic disorders which showed the least concordance (ρ = .43). In-hospital suicide risk levels may represent an important contribution to the assessment of suicidal behavior of inpatients experiencing psychiatric treatment due to their overall good validity and reliability. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
-
Han, Paul K J; Joekes, Katherine; Mills, Greg; Gutheil, Caitlin; Smith, Kahsi; Cochran, Nancy E; Elwyn, Glyn
2016-12-01
To develop and evaluate a brief observational measure of clinical risk communication competence. A 4-item checklist-type measure, the BRISK (Brief Risk Information Skill) Scale, was developed by selecting and refining items from a more comprehensive measure of clinical risk communication competence. Six volunteer raters received brief training on the measure and then used the BRISK Scale to evaluate 52 video-recorded encounters between 2nd-year medical students and standardized patients conducted as part of an Observed Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) involving a risk communication task. Internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, and criterion validity were assessed. Raters reported no difficulties using the BRISK Scale; scores across all raters and subjects ranged from 0 to 16 with a mean score of 6.49 (SD=3.17). The BRISK Scale showed good internal consistency reliability (α=0.64), and inter-rater reliability at the scale level (Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC)=0.79 for consistency, and 0.75 for absolute agreement) and individual-item level (ICC range: 0.62-.91). Novice raters' BRISK Scale scores were highly correlated (r=0.84, p<0.01) with expert raters' scores on the Risk Communication Content measure, a more comprehensive measure of risk communication competence. The BRISK Scale is a promising new brief observational measure of clinical risk communication competence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Decision Making and Risk Evaluation Frameworks for Extreme Space Weather Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Uritskaya, O.; Robinson, R. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.
2017-12-01
Extreme Space Weather events (ESWE) are in the spotlight nowadays because they can produce a significant impact not only due to their intensity and broad geographical scope, but also because of the widespread levels and the multiple sectors of the economy that could be involved. In the task of evaluation of the ESWE consequences, the most problematic and vulnerable aspect is the determination and calculation of the probability of statistically infrequent events and the subsequent assessment of the economic risks. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the available frameworks of the general Decision-Making Theory in the presence of uncertainty, in the context of their applicability for the numerical estimation of the risks and losses associated with ESWE. The results of our study demonstrate that, unlike the Multiple-criteria decision analysis or Minimax approach to modeling of the possible scenarios for the ESWE effects, which prevail in the literature, the most suitable concept is the Games Against Nature (GAN). It enables an evaluation of every economically relevant aspect of space weather conditions and obtain more detailed results. Choosing the appropriate methods for solving GAN models, i.e. determining the most optimal strategy with a given level of uncertainty, requires estimating the conditional probabilities of Space Weather events for each outcome of possible scenarios of this natural disaster. Due to the specifics of complex natural and economic systems, with which we are dealing in this case, this problem remains unsolved, mainly because of inevitable loss of information at every stage of the decision-making process. The analysis is illustrated by deregulated electricity markets of the USA and Canada, whose power grid systems are known to be perceptive to ESWE. The GAN model is more appropriate in identifying potential risks in economic systems. The proposed approach, when applied to the existing database of Space Weather observations and
-
Ryan, Patrick B; Schuemie, Martijn J
2013-10-01
There has been only limited evaluation of statistical methods for identifying safety risks of drug exposure in observational healthcare data. Simulations can support empirical evaluation, but have not been shown to adequately model the real-world phenomena that challenge observational analyses. To design and evaluate a probabilistic framework (OSIM2) for generating simulated observational healthcare data, and to use this data for evaluating the performance of methods in identifying associations between drug exposure and health outcomes of interest. Seven observational designs, including case-control, cohort, self-controlled case series, and self-controlled cohort design were applied to 399 drug-outcome scenarios in 6 simulated datasets with no effect and injected relative risks of 1.25, 1.5, 2, 4, and 10, respectively. Longitudinal data for 10 million simulated patients were generated using a model derived from an administrative claims database, with associated demographics, periods of drug exposure derived from pharmacy dispensings, and medical conditions derived from diagnoses on medical claims. Simulation validation was performed through descriptive comparison with real source data. Method performance was evaluated using Area Under ROC Curve (AUC), bias, and mean squared error. OSIM2 replicates prevalence and types of confounding observed in real claims data. When simulated data are injected with relative risks (RR) ≥ 2, all designs have good predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.90), but when RR < 2, no methods achieve 100 % predictions. Each method exhibits a different bias profile, which changes with the effect size. OSIM2 can support methodological research. Results from simulation suggest method operating characteristics are far from nominal properties.
-
Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in stages of gout by a complex multimodal ultrasonography.
Gancheva, Rada; Kundurdjiev, Atanas; Ivanova, Mariana; Kundurzhiev, Todor; Kolarov, Zlatimir
2017-01-01
The aim of our work was to assess ultrasound features of cardiovascular (CV) risk in stages of gout. Cross-sectional complex multimodal ultrasound study of 169 age-matched patients, with similar distribution of arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity and chronic renal failure, was divided into four groups: 41 with asymptomatic hyperuricemia, 52 gout without tophi, 42 gouty tophi and 34 controls with osteoarthritis. Parameters independently associated with CV risk were measured: renal resistive index (RRI), left ventricular mass index (LVMi), mitral annulus early diastolic velocity (e'), intima-media thickness (IMT) and common carotid artery resistive index (CCARI). Multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of gout stages and CV risk factors on ultrasound alterations. Gouty tophi increased the risk of having IMT >0.90 mm with an OR 11.51 (95 % CI 2.32-57.21, p = 0.003), gout without tophi raised the risk with an OR 6.25 (95 % CI 1.37-28.44, p = 0.018), while asymptomatic hyperuricemia had no effect on IMT. The category of CCARI >0.70 was influenced by tophi with an OR 11.18 (95 % CI 2.61-47.83, p = 0.001) and by arterial hypertension with an OR 3.22 (95 % CI 1.11-9.36, p = 0.032). Neither asymptomatic hyperuricemia nor gout without tophi modified the development of abnormally high CCARI. Gout stages had no impact on LVMi, e' and RRI. Tophi are related to worsened ultrasonographic parameters evaluating target organs in gout, relative to earlier stages of the disease. They create a strong risk of carotid arteries' changes even beyond arterial hypertension.
-
Greening, L; Dollinger, S J; Pitz, G
1996-02-01
Elevated risk judgments for negative life events have been linked to personal experience with events. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive heuristics are the underlying cognitive mechanism for this relation. The availability (i.e., memory for incidents) and simulation (i.e., imagery) heuristics were evaluated as possible mediators for the relation between personal experience and risk estimates for fatal weather events. Adolescents who had experienced weather disasters estimated their personal risk for weather events. Support was obtained for the simulation heuristic (imagery) as a mediator for the relation. Availability for lightning disaster experience was also found to be a mediator for the relation between personal lightning disaster experience and risk estimate for future events. The implications for risk perception research are discussed.
-
Pariser, Joseph J; Pearce, Shane M; Patel, Sanjay G; Bales, Gregory T
2015-07-01
To examine the epidemiology and timing of penile fracture, patterns of urethral evaluation, and risk factors for concomitant urethral injury. The National Inpatient Sample (2003-2011) was used to identify patients with penile fractures. Clinical data included age, race, comorbidity, insurance, hospital factors, timing, hematuria, and urinary symptoms. Rates of formal urethral evaluation (cystoscopy or urethrogram) and urethral injury were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify predictors of urethral evaluation and risk factors for urethral injury. A weighted population of 3883 patients with penile fracture was identified. Presentations during weekends (37%) and summers (30%) were overrepresented (both P <.001). Urethral evaluation was performed in 882 patients (23%). Urethral injury was diagnosed in 813 patients (21%) with penile fracture. There was an increased odds of urethral evaluation with hematuria (odds ratio [OR] = 2.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-8.73; P = .045) and a decrease for Hispanics (OR = 0.42; 95% CI, 0.22-0.82; P = .011). Older age (32-41 years: OR = 1.84; 95% CI, 1.07-3.16; P = .027; >41 years: OR = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.25-4.05; P = .007), black race (OR = 1.93; 95% CI, 1.12-3.34; P = .018), and hematuria (OR = 17.03; 95% CI, 3.20-90.54; P = .001) were independent risk factors for urethral injury. Penile fractures, which occur disproportionately during summer and weekends, were associated with a 21% risk of urethral injury. Urethral evaluations were performed in a minority of patients. Even in patients with hematuria, 55% of patients underwent formal urethral evaluation. On multivariate analysis of patients with penile fracture, hematuria as well as older age and black race were independently associated with concomitant urethral injury. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Ezzati, Majid; Utzinger, Jürg; Cairncross, Sandy; Cohen, Aaron J; Singer, Burton H
2005-01-01
Monitoring and empirical evaluation are essential components of evidence based public health policies and programmes. Consequently, there is a growing interest in monitoring of, and indicators for, major environmental health risks, particularly in the developing world. Current large scale data collection efforts are generally disconnected from micro-scale studies in health sciences, which in turn have insufficiently investigated the behavioural and socioeconomic factors that influence exposure. A basic framework is proposed for development of indicators of exposure to environmental health risks that would facilitate the (a) assessment of the health effects of risk factors, (b) design and evaluation of interventions and programmes to deliver the interventions, and (c) appraisal and quantification of inequalities in health effects of risk factors, and benefits of intervention programmes and policies. Specific emphasis is put on the features of environmental risks that should guide the choice of indicators, in particular the interactions of technology, the environment, and human behaviour in determining exposure. The indicators are divided into four categories: (a) access and infrastructure, (b) technology, (c) agents and vectors, and (d) behaviour. The study used water and sanitation, indoor air pollution from solid fuels, urban ambient air pollution, and malaria as illustrative examples for this framework. Organised and systematic indicator selection and monitoring can provide an evidence base for design and implementation of more effective and equitable technological interventions, delivery programmes, and policies for environmental health risks in resource poor settings.
-
Angelo, Maria-Genalin; Taylor, Sylvia; Struyf, Frank; Tavares Da Silva, Fernanda; Arellano, Felix; David, Marie-Pierre; Dubin, Gary; Rosillon, Dominique; Baril, Laurence
2014-11-01
The HPV types 16/18-AS04-adjuvanted cervical cancer vaccine, Cervarix(®) (HPV-16/18-vaccine, GlaxoSmithKline, Belgium) was first approved in 2007 and is licensed in 134 countries for the prevention of persistent infection, premalignant cervical lesions and cervical cancer caused by oncogenic HPV. Benefit-risk status requires continual re-evaluation as vaccine uptake increases, as the epidemiology of the disease evolves and as new information becomes available. This paper provides an example of benefit-risk considerations and risk-management planning. Evaluation of the benefit-risk of HPV-16/18-vaccine post-licensure includes studies with a range of designs in many countries and in collaboration with national public agencies and regulatory authorities. The strategy to assess benefit versus risk will continue to evolve and adapt to the changing HPV-16/18-vaccine market.
-
Meeting the Needs of USGS's Science Application for Risk Reduction Group through Evaluation Research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ritchie, L.; Campbell, N. M.; Vickery, J.; Madera, A.
2016-12-01
The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) group aims to support innovative collaborations in hazard science by uniting a broad range of stakeholders to produce and disseminate knowledge in ways that are useful for decision-making in hazard mitigation, planning, and preparedness. Since 2013, an evaluation team at the Natural Hazards Center (NHC) has worked closely with the SAFRR group to assess these collaborations and communication efforts. In contributing to the nexus between academia and practice, or "pracademia," we use evaluation research to provide the USGS with useful feedback for crafting relevant information for practitioners and decision-makers. This presentation will highlight how the NHC team has varied our methodological and information design approaches according to the needs of each project, which in turn assist the SAFRR group in meeting the needs of practitioners and decision-makers. As the foci of our evaluation activities with SAFRR have evolved, so have our efforts to ensure that our work appropriately matches the information needs of each scenario project. We draw upon multiple projects, including evaluation work on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, "The First Sue Nami" tsunami awareness messaging, and their most recent project concerning a hypothetical M7 earthquake on the Hayward fault in the Bay Area (HayWired scenario). We have utilized various qualitative and quantitative methodologies—including telephone interviews, focus groups, online surveys, nonparticipant observation, and in-person survey distribution. The findings generated from these series of evaluations highlight the ways in which evaluation research can be used by researchers and academics to more appropriately address the needs of practitioners. Moreover, they contribute to knowledge enhancement surrounding disaster preparedness and risk communication, and, more generally, the limited body of knowledge about evaluation-focused disaster
-
Computed Tomography Angiography Evaluation of Risk Factors for Unstable Intracranial Aneurysms.
Wang, Guang-Xian; Gong, Ming-Fu; Wen, Li; Liu, Lan-Lan; Yin, Jin-Bo; Duan, Chun-Mei; Zhang, Dong
2018-03-19
To evaluate risk factors for instability in intracranial aneurysms (IAs) using computed tomography angiography (CTA). A total of 614 consecutive patients diagnosed with 661 IAs between August 2011 and February 2016 were reviewed. Patients and IAs were divided into stable and unstable groups. Along with clinical characteristics, IA characteristics were evaluated by CTA. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors associated with unstable IAs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed on the final model, and optimal thresholds were obtained. Patient age (odds ratio [OR], 0.946), cerebral atherosclerosis (CA; OR, 0.525), and IAs located at the middle cerebral artery (OR, 0.473) or internal carotid artery (OR, 0.512) were negatively correlated with instability, whereas IAs with irregular shape (OR, 2.157), deep depth (OR, 1.557), or large flow angle (FA; OR, 1.015) were more likely to be unstable. ROC analysis revealed threshold values of age, depth, and FA of 59.5 years, 4.25 mm, and 87.8°, respectively. The stability of IAs is significantly affected by several factors, including patient age and the presence of CA. IA shape and location also have an impact on the stability of IAs. Growth into an irregular shape, with a deep depth, and a large FA are risk factors for a change in IAs from stable to unstable. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin
2017-03-01
To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely
-
Evaluation of pro-convulsant risk in the rat: spontaneous and provoked convulsions.
Esneault, Elise; Peyon, Guillaume; Froger-Colléaux, Christelle; Castagné, Vincent
2015-01-01
The aim of the present study was to evaluate the utility of different tests performed in the absence or presence of factors promoting seizures in order to evaluate the pro-convulsant effects of drugs. We studied the effects of theophylline in the rat since this is a well-known pro-convulsant substance in humans. The occurrence of spontaneous convulsions following administration of theophylline was evaluated by observation in the Irwin Test and by measuring brain activity using video-EEG recording in conscious telemetered animals. Theophylline was also tested in the electroconvulsive shock (ECS) threshold and pentylenetetrazole (PTZ)-induced convulsions tests, two commonly used models of provoked convulsions. In the Irwin test, theophylline induced convulsions in 1 out of 6 rats at 128 mg/kg. Paroxysmal/seizure activity was also observed by video-EEG recording in 4 out of the 12 animals tested at 128 mg/kg, in presence of clonic convulsions in 3 out of the 4 rats. Paroxysmal activity was observed in two rats in the absence of clear behavioral symptoms, indicating that some precursor signs can be detected using video-EEG. Clear pro-convulsant activity was shown over the dose-range 32-128 mg/kg in the ECS threshold and PTZ-induced convulsions tests. Evaluation of spontaneous convulsions provides information on the therapeutic window of a drug and the translational value of the approach is increased by the use of video-EEG. Tests based on provoked convulsions further complement the evaluation since they try to mimic high risk situations. Measurement of both spontaneous and provoked convulsions improves the evaluation of the pro-convulsant risk of novel pharmacological substances. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li
This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.
-
Effects and Risk Evaluation of Oil Spillage in the Sea Areas of Changxing Island
Wang, Hanxi; Xu, Jianling; Zhao, Wenkui; Zhang, Jiquan
2014-01-01
This paper evaluated the oil spillage risk in the waters near the island of Changxing in Dalian (China) based on the established risk assessment index. Four wind regimes (windless, northerly wind, westerly wind and southerly wind) were selected as weather conditions for the dynamic prediction of oil drift. If an oil spill occurs near the Koumen (a place near the island of Changxing), the forecast and evaluation are conducted based on a three-dimensional mathematical model of oil spillage, and the results obtained show the scope of the affected area when winds from various directions are applied. The oil spillage would, under various conditions, flow into the northern and western sea area of Changxing Island Bay, namely the Dalian harbor seal National Nature Reserve, and create adverse effects on the marine ecological environment. The rationality of combining the established oil spillage risk comprehensive index system with model prediction is further confirmed. Finally, preventive measures and quick fixes are presented in the case of accidental oil spillages. The most effective method to reduce environment risk is to adopt reasonable preventive measures and quick fixes. PMID:25153473
-
Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites
Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi
2014-01-01
Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530
-
Bartko, Philipp E; Wiedemann, Dominik; Schrutka, Lore; Binder, Christina; Santos-Gallego, Carlos G; Zuckermann, Andreas; Steinlechner, Barbara; Koinig, Herbert; Heinz, Gottfried; Niessner, Alexander; Zimpfer, Daniel; Laufer, Günther; Lang, Irene M; Distelmaier, Klaus; Goliasch, Georg
2017-07-28
Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation following cardiac surgery safeguards end-organ oxygenation but unfavorably alters cardiac hemodynamics. Along with the detrimental effects of cardiac surgery to the right heart, this might impact outcome, particularly in patients with preexisting right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. We sought to determine the prognostic impact of RV function and to improve established risk-prediction models in this vulnerable patient cohort. Of 240 patients undergoing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support following cardiac surgery, 111 had echocardiographic examinations at our institution before implantation of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and were thus included. Median age was 67 years (interquartile range 60-74), and 74 patients were male. During a median follow-up of 27 months (interquartile range 16-63), 75 patients died. Fifty-one patients died within 30 days, 75 during long-term follow-up (median follow-up 27 months, minimum 5 months, maximum 125 months). Metrics of RV function were the strongest predictors of outcome, even stronger than left ventricular function ( P <0.001 for receiver operating characteristics comparisons). Specifically, RV free-wall strain was a powerful predictor univariately and after adjustment for clinical variables, Simplified Acute Physiology Score-3, tricuspid regurgitation, surgery type and duration with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.41 (95%CI 0.24-0.68; P =0.001) for 30-day mortality and 0.48 (95%CI 0.33-0.71; P <0.001) for long-term mortality for a 1-SD (SD=-6%) change in RV free-wall strain. Combined assessment of the additive EuroSCORE and RV free-wall strain improved risk classification by a net reclassification improvement of 57% for 30-day mortality ( P =0.01) and 56% for long-term mortality ( P =0.02) compared with the additive EuroSCORE alone. RV function is strongly linked to mortality, even after adjustment for baseline variables and clinical risk scores. RV performance improves
-
Decisions under risk in Parkinson's disease: preserved evaluation of probability and magnitude.
Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; McKeown, Martin J; Appel-Cresswell, Silke; Stoessl, A Jon; Barton, Jason J S
2013-11-01
Unmedicated Parkinson's disease patients tend to be risk-averse while dopaminergic treatment causes a tendency to take risks. While dopamine agonists may result in clinically apparent impulse control disorders, treatment with levodopa also causes shift in behaviour associated with an enhanced response to rewards. Two important determinants in decision-making are how subjects perceive the magnitude and probability of outcomes. Our objective was to determine if patients with Parkinson's disease on or off levodopa showed differences in their perception of value when making decisions under risk. The Vancouver Gambling task presents subjects with a choice between one prospect with larger outcome and a second with higher probability. Eighteen age-matched controls and eighteen patients with Parkinson's disease before and after levodopa were tested. In the Gain Phase subjects chose between one prospect with higher probability and another with larger reward to maximize their gains. In the Loss Phase, subjects played to minimize their losses. Patients with Parkinson's disease, on or off levodopa, were similar to controls when evaluating gains. However, in the Loss Phase before levodopa, they were more likely to avoid the prospect with lower probability but larger loss, as indicated by the steeper slope of their group psychometric function (t(24) = 2.21, p = 0.04). Modelling with prospect theory suggested that this was attributable to a 28% overestimation of the magnitude of loss, rather than an altered perception of its probability. While pre-medicated patients with Parkinson's disease show risk-aversion for large losses, patients on levodopa have normal perception of magnitude and probability for both loss and gain. The finding of accurate and normally biased decisions under risk in medicated patients with PD is important because it indicates that, if there is indeed anomalous risk-seeking behaviour in such a cohort, it may derive from abnormalities in components of
-
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-09-16
... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0204] Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating Reactors AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission... FR 54507), that requested public comment on Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011- XX: Seismic Risk...
-
Seiffert, Moritz; Diemert, Patrick; Koschyk, Dietmar; Schirmer, Johannes; Conradi, Lenard; Schnabel, Renate; Blankenberg, Stefan; Reichenspurner, Hermann; Baldus, Stephan; Treede, Hendrik
2013-06-01
This study sought to report on the feasibility and early results of transcatheter aortic valve implantation employing a second-generation device in a series of patients with pure aortic regurgitation. Efficacy and safety of transcatheter aortic valve implantation in patients with calcific aortic stenosis and high surgical risk has been demonstrated. However, experience with implantation for severe noncalcified aortic regurgitation has been limited due to increased risk for valve dislocation or annular rupture. Five patients (mean age: 66.6 ± 7 years) underwent transapical implantation of a JenaValve (JenaValve Technology GmbH, Munich, Germany) transcatheter heart valve for moderate to severe, noncalcified aortic regurgitation. All patients were considered high risk for surgical aortic valve replacement after evaluation by an interdisciplinary heart team (logistic EuroSCORE [European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation] range 3.1% to 38.9%). Procedural and acute clinical outcomes were analyzed. Implantation was successful in all cases without relevant remaining aortic regurgitation or signs of stenosis in any of the patients. No major device- or procedure-related adverse events occurred and all 5 patients were alive with improved exercise tolerance at 3-month follow-up. Noncalcified aortic regurgitation continues to be a challenging pathology for transcatheter aortic valve implantation due to the risk for insufficient anchoring of the valve stent within the aortic annulus. This report provides first evidence that the JenaValve prosthesis may be a reasonable option in these specific patients due to its unique stent design, clipping the native aortic valve leaflets, and offering promising early results. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Chang, Evelyn T; Zulman, Donna M; Asch, Steven M; Stockdale, Susan E; Yoon, Jean; Ong, Michael K; Lee, Martin; Simon, Alissa; Atkins, David; Schectman, Gordon; Kirsh, Susan R; Rubenstein, Lisa V
2018-06-01
Patient-centered medical homes have made great strides providing comprehensive care for patients with chronic conditions, but may not provide sufficient support for patients at highest risk for acute care use. To address this, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) initiated a five-site demonstration project to evaluate the effectiveness of augmenting the VA's Patient Aligned Care Team (PACT) medical home with PACT Intensive Management (PIM) teams for Veterans at highest risk for hospitalization. Researchers partnered with VHA leadership to design a mixed-methods prospective multi-site evaluation that met leadership's desire for a rigorous evaluation conducted as quality improvement rather than research. We conducted a randomized QI evaluation and assigned high-risk patients to participate in PIM and compared them with high-risk Veterans receiving usual care through PACT. The summative evaluation examines whether PIM: 1) decreases VHA emergency department and hospital use; 2) increases satisfaction with VHA care; 3) decreases provider burnout; and 4) generates positive returns on investment. The formative evaluation aims to support improved care for high-risk patients at demonstration sites and to inform future initiatives for high-risk patients. The evaluation was reviewed by representatives from the VHA Office of Research and Development and the Office of Research Oversight and met criteria for quality improvement. VHA aims to function as a learning organization by rapidly implementing and rigorously testing QI innovations prior to final program or policy development. We observed challenges and opportunities in designing an evaluation consistent with QI standards and operations priorities, while also maintaining scientific rigor. This trial was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov on April 3, 2017: NCT03100526. Protocol v1, FY14-17. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M
2017-01-01
There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.
2011-12-01
It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the
-
Risk Evaluation, Driving, and Adolescents: A Typology.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Harre, Niki
2000-01-01
Presents a typology outlining five psychological risk states that may be experienced by adolescent drivers. Identifies the habitually cautious driving and active risk avoidance states as desirable from a traffic safety viewpoint. Identifies reduced risk perception, acceptance of risk at a cost, and risk seeking states as undesirable. Examines…
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Copping, A. E.; Blake, K.; Zdanski, L.
2011-12-01
As marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development projects progress towards early deployments in the U.S., the process of determining the risks to aquatic animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes from these engineered systems continues to be a significant barrier to efficient siting and permitting. Understanding the risk of MHK installations requires that the two elements of risk - consequence and probability - be evaluated. However, standard risk assessment methodologies are not easily applied to MHK interactions with marine and riverine environment as there are few data that describe the interaction of stressors (MHK devices, anchors, foundations, mooring lines and power cables) and receptors (aquatic animals, habitats and ecosystem processes). The number of possible combinations and permutations of stressors and receptors in MHK systems is large: there are many different technologies designed to harvest energy from the tides, waves and flowing rivers; each device is planned for a specific waterbody that supports an endemic ecosystem of animals and habitats, tied together by specific physical and chemical processes. With few appropriate analogue industries in the oceans and rivers, little information on the effects of these technologies on the living world is available. Similarly, without robust data sets of interactions, mathematical probability models are difficult to apply. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory scientists are working with MHK developers, researchers, engineers, and regulators to rank the consequences of planned MHK projects on living systems, and exploring alternative methodologies to estimate probabilities of these encounters. This paper will present the results of ERES, the Environmental Risk Evaluation System, which has been used to rank consequences for major animal groups and habitats for five MHK projects that are in advanced stages of development and/or early commercial deployment. Probability analyses have been performed for high
-
A prospective evaluation of serum kynurenine metabolites and risk of pancreatic cancer.
Huang, Joyce Y; Butler, Lesley M; Midttun, Øivind; Ulvik, Arve; Wang, Renwei; Jin, Aizhen; Gao, Yu-Tang; Ueland, Per M; Koh, Woon-Puay; Yuan, Jian-Min
2018-01-01
Serum pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP), the active form of vitamin B6, is associated with reduced risk of pancreatic cancer. Data on functional measures of vitamin B6 status and risk of pancreatic cancer is lacking. A nested case-control study involving 187 incident cases of pancreatic cancer and 362 individually matched controls were conducted within two prospective cohorts to evaluate the associations between kynurenine metabolites in pre-diagnostic serum samples and risk of pancreatic cancer. Higher serum concentrations of 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid (HAA) and the HAA:3-hydroxykynurenine (HK) ratio (a measure for in vivo functional status of PLP) were significantly associated with reduced risk of pancreatic cancer. Compared with the lowest tertile, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of pancreatic cancer for the highest tertile was 0.62 (0.39, 1.01) for HAA, and 0.59 (0.35-0.98) for the HAA:HK ratio, after adjustment for potential confounders and serum PLP (both Ps for trend<0.05). The kynurenine:tryptophan ratio or neopterin was not significantly associated with pancreatic cancer risk. The inverse association between HAA or the HAA:HK ratio and risk of pancreatic cancer supports the notion that functional status of PLP may be a more important measure than circulating PLP alone for the development of pancreatic cancer.
-
Ruffle, Betsy; Henderson, James; Murphy-Hagan, Clare; Kirkwood, Gemma; Wolf, Frederick; Edwards, Deborah A
2018-01-01
A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed to evaluate the range of potential baseline and postremedy health risks to fish consumers at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site (the "Site"). The analysis focused on risks of consuming fish resident to the Site containing polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), given that this exposure scenario and contaminant are the primary basis for US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) selected remedy per the January 2017 Record of Decision (ROD). The PRA used probability distributions fit to the same data sets used in the deterministic baseline human health risk assessment (BHHRA) as well as recent sediment and fish tissue data to evaluate the range and likelihood of current baseline cancer risks and noncancer hazards for anglers. Areas of elevated PCBs in sediment were identified on the basis of a geospatial evaluation of the surface sediment data, and the ranges of risks and hazards associated with pre- and postremedy conditions were calculated. The analysis showed that less active remediation (targeted to areas with the highest concentrations) compared to the remedial alternative selected by USEPA in the ROD can achieve USEPA's interim risk management benchmarks (cancer risk of 10 -4 and noncancer hazard index [HI] of 10) immediately postremediation for the vast majority of subsistence anglers that consume smallmouth bass (SMB) fillet tissue. In addition, the same targeted remedy achieves USEPA's long-term benchmarks (10 -5 and HI of 1) for the majority of recreational anglers. Additional sediment remediation would result in negligible additional risk reduction due to the influence of background. The PRA approach applied here provides a simple but adaptive framework for analysis of risks and remedial options focused on variability in exposures. It can be updated and refined with new data to evaluate and reduce uncertainty, improve understanding of the Site and target populations, and foster informed remedial decision
-
den Uil, Corstiaan A; Valk, Suzanne D A; Cheng, Jin M; Kappetein, Arie P; Bogers, Ad J J C; van Domburg, Ron T; Simoons, Maarten L
2009-08-01
The aim of this study was to evaluate short- and long-term outcome in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), who received an intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) prior to surgery. Between January 1990 and June 2004, all patients (n=154) who received an IABP prior to on-pump CABG in our center were included. Patients received the IABP for vital indications (i.e. either unstable angina refractory to medical therapy or cardiogenic shock; group 1: n=99) or for prophylactic reasons (group 2: n=55). A Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors of long-term all-cause mortality. Compared with the EuroSCORE predictive model, observed 30-day mortality in group 1 (15.2%) was slightly higher than predicted (10.3%). A decrease in 30-day mortality occurred in group 2 (median predicted mortality was 7.2% and observed was 0%). Cumulative 1-, 5-, and 6-year survival was 82.8+/-3.8%, 70.1+/-4.9%, and 67.3+/-5.1% for group 1 vs. 98.2+/-1.8%, 84.0+/-5.6% and 84.0+/-5.6% for group 2 (Log-rank: P=0.02). Logistic EuroSCORE (HR 1.03 [1.01-1.05], P=0.007) was an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality.
-
Adamarczuk-Janczyszyn, Maria; Zdrojowy-Wełna, Aleksandra; Rogala, Natalia; Zatońska, Katarzyna; Bednarek-Tupikowska, Grażyna
2016-01-01
Subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) is a common endocrine disorder, probably increasing cardiovascular (CV) risk. However, the relation between SCH and atherosclerosis risk factors remains unclear. The aim of the study was to evaluate selected atherosclerosis risk factors in women with SCH in comparison to a group of healthy women and women with overt hypothyroidism, as well as to investigate the influence of L-thyroxine replacement on those risk factors. The study group consisted of 187 obese women aged between 50 and 70 years: 100 women with SCH, 45 women with overt hypothyroidism and 42 women with TSH level in reference ranges. Anthropometric parameters were evaluated. Laboratory tests included thyroid hormones concentrations, lipid profile with apolipoproteins, CRP, homocysteine. Atherosclerotic indexes were calculated: LDL C/HDL C ratio, apoA1/apoB ratio and Castelli risk index. Women with hypothyroidism were given L-thyroxine treatment and after 6 months in euthyroidism the evaluation was repeated. Total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides concentrations as well as LDL-C/HDL-C ratio and Castelli index were higher in SCH than in controls and decreased after L-thyroxin substitution. All of the calculated atherosclerosis indexes showed significant positive correlations with TSH concentration in SCH group. Also in this group the systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased significantly after treatment. Dyslipidemia in obese SCH women is not severe, but if untreated for many years, it may lead to atherosclerosis. Substitution therapy improves the lipid profile, changing the relations between protective and proatherogenic fractions of serum lipids, and optimises blood pressure.
-
Gilioli, G; Schrader, G; Baker, R H A; Ceglarska, E; Kertész, V K; Lövei, G; Navajas, M; Rossi, V; Tramontini, S; van Lenteren, J C
2014-01-15
The current methods to assess the environmental impacts of plant pests differ in their approaches and there is a lack of the standardized procedures necessary to provide accurate and consistent results, demonstrating the complexity of developing a commonly accepted scheme for this purpose. By including both the structural and functional components of the environment threatened by invasive alien species (IAS), in particular plant pests, we propose an environmental risk assessment scheme that addresses this complexity. Structural components are investigated by evaluating the impacts of the plant pest on genetic, species and landscape diversity. Functional components are evaluated by estimating how plant pests modify ecosystem services in order to determine the extent to which an IAS changes the functional traits that influence ecosystem services. A scenario study at a defined spatial and temporal resolution is then used to explore how an IAS, as an exogenous driving force, may trigger modifications in the target environment. The method presented here provides a standardized approach to generate comparable and reproducible results for environmental risk assessment as a component of Pest Risk Analysis. The method enables the assessment of overall environmental risk which integrates the impacts on different components of the environment and their probabilities of occurrence. The application of the proposed scheme is illustrated by evaluating the environmental impacts of the invasive citrus long-horn beetle, Anoplophora chinensis. © 2013.
-
Gleeson, Maree; Pyne, David B; Elkington, Lisa J; Hall, Sharron T; Attia, John R; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Wood, Lisa G; Callister, Robin
2017-01-01
Clinical and laboratory identification of the underlying risk of respiratory illness in athletes has proved problematic. The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical data, combined with immune responses to standardised exercise protocols and genetic cytokine polymorphism status, could identify the risk of respiratory illness (symptoms) in a cohort of highly-trained athletes. Male endurance athletes (n=16; VO2max 66.5 ± 5.1 mL.kg-1.min-1) underwent a clinical evaluation of known risk factors by a physician and comprehensive laboratory analysis of immune responses both at rest and after two cycling ergometer tests: 60 min at 65% VO2max (LONG); and 6 x 3 min intervals at 90% VO2max (INTENSE). Blood tests were performed to determine Epstein Barr virus (EBV) status and DNA was genotyped for a panel of cytokine gene polymorphisms. Saliva was collected for measurement of IgA and detection of EBV DNA. Athletes were then followed for 9 months for self-reported episodes of respiratory illness, with confirmation of the underlying cause by a sports physician. There were no associations with risk of respiratory illness identified for any parameter assessed in the clinical evaluations. The laboratory parameters associated with an increased risk of respiratory illnesses in highly-trained athletes were cytokine gene polymorphisms for the high expression of IL-6 and IFN-ɣ; expression of EBV-DNA in saliva; and low levels of salivary IgA concentration. A genetic risk score was developed for the cumulative number of minor alleles for the cytokines evaluated. Athletes prone to recurrent respiratory illness were more likely to have immune disturbances that allow viral reactivation, and a genetic predisposition to pro-inflammatory cytokine responses to intense exercise. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Exercise and Immunology. All rights reserved.
-
Wolf, Douglas C.; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I.; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P.; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R.
2016-01-01
ABSTRACT The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework’s roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization. PMID:26451723
-
Wolf, Douglas C; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R
2016-01-01
The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework's roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization.
-
McDonough, Christine M; Colla, Carrie H; Carmichael, Donald; Tosteson, Anna N A; Tosteson, Tor D; Bell, John-Erik; Cantu, Robert V; Lurie, Jonathan D; Bynum, Julie P W
2017-03-01
Clinical practice guidelines recommend fall risk assessment and intervention for older adults who sustain a fall-related injury to prevent future injury and mobility decline. The aim of this study was to describe how often Medicare beneficiaries with upper extremity fracture receive evaluation and treatment for fall risk. Observational cohort. Participants were fee-for-service beneficiaries age 66 to 99 treated as outpatients for proximal humerus or distal radius/ulna ("wrist") fragility fractures. -Participants were studied using Carrier and Outpatient Hospital files. The proportion of patients evaluated or treated for fall risk up to 6 months after proximal humerus or wrist fracture from 2007-2009 was examined based on evaluation, treatment, and diagnosis codes. Time to evaluation and number of treatment sessions were calculated. Logistic regression was used to analyze patient characteristics that predicted receiving evaluation or treatment. Narrow (gait training) and broad (gait training or therapeutic exercise) definitions of service were used. There were 309,947 beneficiaries who sustained proximal humerus (32%) or wrist fracture (68%); 10.7% received evaluation or treatment for fall risk or gait issues (humerus: 14.2%; wrist: 9.0%). Using the broader definition, the percentage increased to 18.5% (humerus: 23.4%; wrist: 16.3%). Factors associated with higher likelihood of services after fracture were: evaluation or treatment for falls or gait prior to fracture, more comorbidities, prior nursing home stay, older age, humerus fracture (vs wrist), female sex, and white race. Claims analysis may underestimate physician and physical therapist fall assessments, but it is not likely to qualitatively change the results. A small proportion of older adults with upper extremity fracture received fall risk assessment and treatment. Providers and health systems must advance efforts to provide timely evidence-based management of fall risk in this population. © 2017
-
Colla, Carrie H.; Carmichael, Donald; Tosteson, Anna N. A.; Tosteson, Tor D.; Bell, John-Erik; Cantu, Robert V.; Lurie, Jonathan D.; Bynum, Julie P. W.
2017-01-01
Abstract Background: Clinical practice guidelines recommend fall risk assessment and intervention for older adults who sustain a fall-related injury to prevent future injury and mobility decline. Objective: The aim of this study was to describe how often Medicare beneficiaries with upper extremity fracture receive evaluation and treatment for fall risk. Design: Observational cohort. Methods: Participants were fee-for-service beneficiaries age 66 to 99 treated as outpatients for proximal humerus or distal radius/ulna (“wrist”) fragility fractures. -Participants were studied using Carrier and Outpatient Hospital files. The proportion of patients evaluated or treated for fall risk up to 6 months after proximal humerus or wrist fracture from 2007–2009 was examined based on evaluation, treatment, and diagnosis codes. Time to evaluation and number of treatment sessions were calculated. Logistic regression was used to analyze patient characteristics that predicted receiving evaluation or treatment. Narrow (gait training) and broad (gait training or therapeutic exercise) definitions of service were used. Results: There were 309,947 beneficiaries who sustained proximal humerus (32%) or wrist fracture (68%); 10.7% received evaluation or treatment for fall risk or gait issues (humerus: 14.2%; wrist: 9.0%). Using the broader definition, the percentage increased to 18.5% (humerus: 23.4%; wrist: 16.3%). Factors associated with higher likelihood of services after fracture were: evaluation or treatment for falls or gait prior to fracture, more comorbidities, prior nursing home stay, older age, humerus fracture (vs wrist), female sex, and white race. Limitations: Claims analysis may underestimate physician and physical therapist fall assessments, but it is not likely to qualitatively change the results. Conclusions: A small proportion of older adults with upper extremity fracture received fall risk assessment and treatment. Providers and health systems must advance efforts to
-
Evaluating re-identification risks with respect to the HIPAA privacy rule
Benitez, Kathleen
2010-01-01
Objective Many healthcare organizations follow data protection policies that specify which patient identifiers must be suppressed to share “de-identified” records. Such policies, however, are often applied without knowledge of the risk of “re-identification”. The goals of this work are: (1) to estimate re-identification risk for data sharing policies of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) Privacy Rule; and (2) to evaluate the risk of a specific re-identification attack using voter registration lists. Measurements We define several risk metrics: (1) expected number of re-identifications; (2) estimated proportion of a population in a group of size g or less, and (3) monetary cost per re-identification. For each US state, we estimate the risk posed to hypothetical datasets, protected by the HIPAA Safe Harbor and Limited Dataset policies by an attacker with full knowledge of patient identifiers and with limited knowledge in the form of voter registries. Results The percentage of a state's population estimated to be vulnerable to unique re-identification (ie, g=1) when protected via Safe Harbor and Limited Datasets ranges from 0.01% to 0.25% and 10% to 60%, respectively. In the voter attack, this number drops for many states, and for some states is 0%, due to the variable availability of voter registries in the real world. We also find that re-identification cost ranges from $0 to $17 000, further confirming risk variability. Conclusions This work illustrates that blanket protection policies, such as Safe Harbor, leave different organizations vulnerable to re-identification at different rates. It provides justification for locally performed re-identification risk estimates prior to sharing data. PMID:20190059
-
Maternal drug use: evaluation of risks to breast-fed infants.
Kirksey, A; Groziak, S M
1984-01-01
This paper, based on a review of the literature, evaluates the risks to infants of maternal drug use during lactation. The potential harm of a particular drug to the breastfed infant is related both to the complex mechanism of milk synthesis and secretion and the mode of passage of the drug from plasma into milk. The 1st part of the paper discusses mammary cell and milk synthesis, milk secretion and composition, the mode of passage of drugs into milk, and factors influencing drug concentrations in milk. Drug concentrations in milk are dependent on 6 major factors: drug dosage, proportion bound in plasma, molecular weight, lipid solubility, degree of ionization, and pH difference between plasma and milk. Drugs that are weak acids are ionized to a greater extent and are more protein-bound than weak alkaline drugs. The 2nd part of the paper evaluates the risks to breastfed infants of selected pharmacons. Some categories of drugs that contain pharmacons that should be limited or avoided by nursing mothers are alkylating agents, analgesics and anti-inflammatory agents, anticoagulants, anticonvulsants, anti-infective agents, central nervous system stimulants, hormones, laxatives, minerals, provitamins, psychotherapeutic agents, thyroid affecting agents, and vitamins. The following precautions are suggested to minimize the risks of potentially harmful pharmacons: 1) all unnecessary medications should be avoided by nrusing mothers; 2) if medication is necessary during lactation, drug dosage should be controlled and the infant should be monitored for adverse symptoms; 3) drugs should be administered shortly after breastfeeding and the interval prolonged before the next feeding; and 4) if the infant must be fed soon after a potentially harmful drug has been taken by the mother, bottle feeding is recommended.
-
European approaches to work-related stress: a critical review on risk evaluation.
Zoni, Silvia; Lucchini, Roberto G
2012-03-01
In recent years, various international organizations have raised awareness regarding psychosocial risks and work-related stress. European stakeholders have also taken action on these issues by producing important documents, such as position papers and government regulations, which are reviewed in this article. In particular, 4 European models that have been developed for the assessment and management of work-related stress are considered here. Although important advances have been made in the understanding of work-related stress, there are still gaps in the translation of this knowledge into effective practice at the enterprise level. There are additional problems regarding the methodology in the evaluation of work-related stress. The European models described in this article are based on holistic, global and participatory approaches, where the active role of and involvement of workers are always emphasized. The limitations of these models are in the lack of clarity on preventive intervention and, for two of them, the lack of instrument standardization for risk evaluation. The comparison among the European models to approach work-related stress, although with limitations and socio-cultural differences, offers the possibility for the development of a social dialogue that is important in defining the correct and practical methodology for work stress evaluation and prevention.
-
Ark, Jacob T; Alvarez, JoAnn R; Koyama, Tatsuki; Bassett, Jeffrey C; Blot, William J; Mumma, Michael T; Resnick, Matthew J; You, Chaochen; Penson, David F; Barocas, Daniel A
2017-11-01
We sought to determine whether race, gender and number of bladder cancer risk factors are significant predictors of hematuria evaluation. We used self-reported data from SCCS (Southern Community Cohort Study) linked to Medicare claims data. Evaluation of subjects diagnosed with incident hematuria was considered complete if imaging and cystoscopy were performed within 180 days of diagnosis. Exposures of interest were race, gender and risk factors for bladder cancer. Of the 1,412 patients evaluation was complete in 261 (18%). On our adjusted analyses African American patients were less likely than Caucasian patients to undergo any aspect of evaluation, including urology referral (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56-0.93), cystoscopy (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.50-0.89) and imaging (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59-0.95). Women were less likely than men to be referred to a urologist (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.46-0.76). Also, although all patients with 2 or 3 risk factors had 31% higher odds of urology referral (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.02-1.69), adjusted analyses indicated that this effect was only apparent among men. Only 18% of patients with an incident hematuria diagnosis underwent complete hematuria evaluation. Gender had a substantial effect on referral to urology when controlling for socioeconomic factors but otherwise it had an unclear role on the quality of evaluation. African American patients had markedly lower rates of thorough evaluation than Caucasian patients. Number of risk factors predicted referral to urology among men but it was otherwise a poor predictor of evaluation. There is opportunity for improvement by increasing the completion of hematuria evaluations, particularly in patients at high risk and those who are vulnerable. Copyright © 2017 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi
2015-01-01
Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China. PMID:25654772
-
Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi
2015-02-03
Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.
-
Pre- and posttest evaluation of a breast cancer risk assessment program for nurse practitioners.
Edwards, Quannetta T; Seibert, Diane
2010-07-01
Numerous studies have shown that healthcare providers, including nurse practitioners (NPs) fail to provide breast cancer risk assessment (BrCRA) in primary care settings. A potential barrier to the use of BrCRA is insufficient knowledge or training of risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to analyze the outcome of a BrCRA program developed to enhance NPs' knowledge of risk assessment and use of empiric risk assessment models. Thirty-five NPs participated in a before-after (pretest-posttest design) study evaluating the effectiveness of a BrCRA education program conducted at a national NP conference. Demographics, pre/post knowledge, and course satisfaction measures were all examined as a part of this pilot study. Continuing education through the implementation of a BrCRA program significantly increased NPs knowledge in assessing breast cancer risk and the use of empiric risk assessment models. Many healthcare providers, including NPs, are inadequately prepared to assess a woman's risk for breast cancer. Understanding breast cancer risk assessment is essential if NPs are to provide appropriate counseling, management, and referral strategies needed to reduce a woman's risk for developing the disease. Continuing education provides one means to enhance NP's knowledge of BrCRA.
-
Evaluation of self-combustion risk in tire derived aggregate fills.
Arroyo, Marcos; San Martin, Ignacio; Olivella, Sebastian; Saaltink, Maarten W
2011-01-01
Lightweight tire derived aggregate (TDA) fills are a proven recycling outlet for waste tires, requiring relatively low cost waste processing and being competitively priced against other lightweight fill alternatives. However its value has been marred as several TDA fills have self-combusted during the early applications of this technique. An empirical review of these cases led to prescriptive guidelines from the ASTM aimed at avoiding this problem. This approach has been successful in avoiding further incidents of self-combustion. However, at present there remains no rational method available to quantify self-combustion risk in TDA fills. This means that it is not clear which aspects of the ASTM guidelines are essential and which are accessory. This hinders the practical use of TDA fills despite their inherent advantages as lightweight fill. Here a quantitative approach to self-combustion risk evaluation is developed and illustrated with a parametric analysis of an embankment case. This is later particularized to model a reported field self-combustion case. The approach is based on the available experimental observations and incorporates well-tested methodological (ISO corrosion evaluation) and theoretical tools (finite element analysis of coupled heat and mass flow). The results obtained offer clear insights into the critical aspects of the problem, allowing already some meaningful recommendations for guideline revision. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Evaluating Anthropogenic Risk of Grassland and Forest Habitat Degradation Using Land-Cover Data
The effects of landscape context on habitat quality are receiving increased attention in conservation biology. The objective of this research is to demonstrate an approach to mapping and evaluating the anthropogenic risks of grassland and forest habitat degradation by examining ...
-
A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
O'Brien, Gordon C.; Dickens, Chris; Hines, Eleanor; Wepener, Victor; Stassen, Retha; Quayle, Leo; Fouchy, Kelly; MacKenzie, James; Graham, P. Mark; Landis, Wayne G.
2018-02-01
Environmental flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional-scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in a socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional-scale ecological risk assessments of multiple stressors to social and ecological endpoints, which address ecosystem dynamism, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid-1990s. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional-scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future water resource use scenarios and generate E-flow requirements on regional spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional-scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence-based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, with trade-off considerations in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The 10 BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. PROBFLO can contribute to the adaptive management of water resources and contribute to the allocation of resources for sustainable use of resources and address protection requirements.
-
Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming
2013-01-01
Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information. PMID:24453883
-
Goes, Vanessa Fernanda; Mello-Carpes, Pâmela Billig; de Oliveira, Lilian Oliveira; Hack, Jaqueline; Magro, Marcela; Bonini, Juliana Sartori
2014-01-01
Objective to evaluate the risk of dysphagia and its relationship with the stage of Alzheimer's Disease, as well as the relationship between the risk of dysphagia and nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly people with Alzheimer's disease. Methods the sample consisted of 30 subjects of both genders with probable Alzheimer's disease. The stage of the disease, nutritional status, energy intake, and risk of dysphagia were assessed. Results it was found that increased risk of dysphagia is associated with the advance in the stages of Alzheimer's disease and that even patients in the early stages of disease have a slight risk of developing dysphagia. No association was found between nutritional status and the risk of dysphagia. High levels of inadequate intake of micronutrients were also verified in the patients. Conclusion an association between dysphagia and the development of Alzheimer's disease was found. The results indicate the need to monitor the presence of dysphagia and the micronutrient intake in patients with Alzheimer's disease. PMID:26107841
-
Neurophysiologic Evaluation of Early Cognitive Development in High-Risk Infants and Toddlers
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
deRegnier, Raye-Ann
2005-01-01
New knowledge of the perceptual, discriminative, and memory capabilities of very young infants has opened the door to further evaluation of these abilities in infants who have risk factors for cognitive impairments. A neurophysiologic technique that has been very useful in this regard is the recording of event-related potentials (ERPs). The…
-
Evaluating the risk of patient re-identification from adverse drug event reports
2013-01-01
Background Our objective was to develop a model for measuring re-identification risk that more closely mimics the behaviour of an adversary by accounting for repeated attempts at matching and verification of matches, and apply it to evaluate the risk of re-identification for Canada’s post-marketing adverse drug event database (ADE).Re-identification is only demonstrably plausible for deaths in ADE. A matching experiment between ADE records and virtual obituaries constructed from Statistics Canada vital statistics was simulated. A new re-identification risk is considered, it assumes that after gathering all the potential matches for a patient record (all records in the obituaries that are potential matches for an ADE record), an adversary tries to verify these potential matches. Two adversary scenarios were considered: (a) a mildly motivated adversary who will stop after one verification attempt, and (b) a highly motivated adversary who will attempt to verify all the potential matches and is only limited by practical or financial considerations. Methods The mean percentage of records in ADE that had a high probability of being re-identified was computed. Results Under scenario (a), the risk of re-identification from disclosing the province, age at death, gender, and exact date of the report is quite high, but the removal of province brings down the risk significantly. By only generalizing the date of reporting to month and year and including all other variables, the risk is always low. All ADE records have a high risk of re-identification under scenario (b), but the plausibility of that scenario is limited because of the financial and practical deterrent even for highly motivated adversaries. Conclusions It is possible to disclose Canada’s adverse drug event database while ensuring that plausible re-identification risks are acceptably low. Our new re-identification risk model is suitable for such risk assessments. PMID:24094134
-
Gale, C P; Manda, S O M; Weston, C F; Birkhead, J S; Batin, P D; Hall, A S
2009-03-01
To compare the discriminative performance of the PURSUIT, GUSTO-1, GRACE, SRI and EMMACE risk models, assess their performance among risk supergroups and evaluate the EMMACE risk model over the wider spectrum of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Observational study of a national registry. All acute hospitals in England and Wales. 100 686 cases of ACS between 2003 and 2005. Model performance (C-index) in predicting the likelihood of death over the time period for which they were designed. The C-index, or area under the receiver-operating curve, range 0-1, is a measure of the discriminative performance of a model. The C-indexes were: PURSUIT C-index 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.80); GUSTO-1 0.80 (0.79 to 0.81); GRACE in-hospital 0.80 (0.80 to 0.81); GRACE 6-month 0.80 (0.79 to 0.80); SRI 0.79 (0.78 to 0.80); and EMMACE 0.78 (0.77 to 0.78). EMMACE maintained its ability to discriminate 30-day mortality throughout different ACS diagnoses. Recalibration of the model offered no notable improvement in performance over the original risk equation. For all models the discriminative performance was reduced in patients with diabetes, chronic renal failure or angina. The five ACS risk models maintained their discriminative performance in a large unselected English and Welsh ACS population, but performed less well in higher-risk supergroups. Simpler risk models had comparable performance to more complex risk models. The EMMACE risk score performed well across the wider spectrum of ACS diagnoses.
-
Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.
Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi
2017-06-01
The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.
-
A Risk Score Model for Evaluation and Management of Patients with Thyroid Nodules.
Zhang, Yongwen; Meng, Fanrong; Hong, Lianqing; Chu, Lanfang
2018-06-12
The study is aimed to establish a simplified and practical tool for analyzing thyroid nodules. A novel risk score model was designed, risk factors including patient history, patient characteristics, physical examination, symptoms of compression, thyroid function, ultrasonography (US) of thyroid and cervical lymph nodes were evaluated and classified into high risk factors, intermediate risk factors, and low risk factors. A total of 243 thyroid nodules in 162 patients were assessed with risk score system and Thyroid Imaging-Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS). The diagnostic performance of risk score system and TI-RADS was compared. The accuracy in the diagnosis of thyroid nodules was 89.3% for risk score system, 74.9% for TI-RADS respectively. The specificity, accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV) of risk score system were significantly higher than the TI-RADS system (χ 2 =26.287, 17.151, 11.983; p <0.05), statistically significant differences were not observed in the sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) between the risk score system and TI-RADS (χ 2 =1.276, 0.290; p>0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) for risk score diagnosis system was 0.963, standard error 0.014, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.934-0.991, the AUC for TI-RADS diagnosis system was 0.912 with standard error 0.021, 95% CI=0.871-0.953, the AUC for risk score system was significantly different from that of TI-RADS (Z=2.02; p <0.05). Risk score model is a reliable, simplified and cost-effective diagnostic tool used in diagnosis of thyroid cancer. The higher the score is, the higher the risk of malignancy will be. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
-
Evaluation of generic types of drilling fluid using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process.
Sadiq, Rehan; Husain, Tahir; Veitch, Brian; Bose, Neil
2003-12-01
The composition of drilling muds is based on a mixture of clays and additives in a base fluid. There are three generic categories of base fluid--water, oil, and synthetic. Water-based fluids (WBFs) are relatively environmentally benign, but drilling performance is better with oil-based fluids (OBFs). The oil and gas industry developed synthetic-based fluids (SBFs), such as vegetable esters, olefins, ethers, and others, which provide drilling performance comparable to OBFs, but with lower environmental and occupational health effects. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology to guide decision-making in the selection and evaluation of three generic types of drilling fluids using a risk-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this paper a comparison of drilling fluids is made considering various activities involved in the life cycle of drilling fluids. This paper evaluates OBFs, WBFs, and SBFs based on four major impacts--operations, resources, economics, and liabilities. Four major activities--drilling, discharging offshore, loading and transporting, and disposing onshore--cause the operational impacts. Each activity involves risks related to occupational injuries (safety), general public health, environmental impact, and energy use. A multicriteria analysis strategy was used for the selection and evaluation of drilling fluids using a risk-based AHP. A four-level hierarchical structure is developed to determine the final relative scores, and the SBFs are found to be the best option.
-
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Naime, Andre, E-mail: andre.naime.ibama@gmail.com
The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes andmore » outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.« less
-
Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Soucy, Penny; Dennis, Joe; Domchek, Susan M; Robson, Mark; Spurdle, Amanda B; Ramus, Susan J; Mavaddat, Nasim; Terry, Mary Beth; Neuhausen, Susan L; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D P; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Easton, Douglas F; Antoniou, Antonis C
2017-07-01
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]-positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2×10 -53 ). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2×10 -20 ). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford
-
Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Soucy, Penny; Healey, Sue; Dennis, Joe; Lush, Michael; Robson, Mark; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Ramus, Susan J.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Terry, Mary Beth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Hamann, Ute; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M.; Chung, Wendy K.; Daly, Mary B.; Buys, Saundra S.; Goldgar, David E.; Dorfling, Cecilia M.; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Ding, Yuan Chun; Ejlertsen, Bent; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Slager, Susan; Hallberg, Emily; Benitez, Javier; Osorio, Ana; Cohen, Nancy; Lawler, William; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pensotti, Valeria; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Barile, Monica; Bonanni, Bernardo; Azzollini, Jacopo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Radice, Paolo; Savarese, Antonella; Papi, Laura; Giannini, Giuseppe; Fostira, Florentia; Konstantopoulou, Irene; Adlard, Julian; Brewer, Carole; Cook, Jackie; Davidson, Rosemarie; Eccles, Diana; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Frost, Debra; Hodgson, Shirley; Izatt, Louise; Lalloo, Fiona; Ong, Kai-ren; Godwin, Andrew K.; Arnold, Norbert; Dworniczak, Bernd; Engel, Christoph; Gehrig, Andrea; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Kast, Karin; Meindl, Alfons; Niederacher, Dieter; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Barjhoux, Laure; Collonge-Rame, Marie-Agnès; Elan, Camille; Golmard, Lisa; Barouk-Simonet, Emmanuelle; Lesueur, Fabienne; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Sokolowska, Joanna; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Isaacs, Claudine; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Poppe, Bruce; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Nevanlinna, Heli; Ausems, Margreet G. E. M.; de Lange, J. L.; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B.; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Kets, Carolien M.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E. J.; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Rookus, Matti A.; van Asperen, Christi J.; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; van Doorn, Helena C.; van Os, Theo A. M.; Kwong, Ava; Olah, Edith; Diez, Orland; Brunet, Joan; Lazaro, Conxi; Teulé, Alex; Gronwald, Jacek; Jakubowska, Anna; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Lubinski, Jan; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Barkardottir, Rosa B.; Chiquette, Jocelyne; Agata, Simona; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Park, Sue Kyung; Olswold, Curtis; Tischkowitz, Marc; Foretova, Lenka; Gaddam, Pragna; Vijai, Joseph; Pfeiler, Georg; Rappaport-Fuerhauser, Christine; Singer, Christian F.; Tea, Muy-Kheng M.; Greene, Mark H.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Rennert, Gad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Hulick, Peter J.; Hays, John L.; Piedmonte, Marion; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Martyn, Julie; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Andrulis, Irene L.; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Kruse, Torben A.; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Thomassen, Mads; Caligo, Maria A.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Berger, Raanan; Friedman, Eitan; Laitman, Yael; Arver, Brita; Borg, Ake; Ehrencrona, Hans; Rantala, Johanna; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Ganz, Patricia A.; Nussbaum, Robert L.; Bradbury, Angela R.; Domchek, Susan M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Arun, Banu K.; James, Paul; Karlan, Beth Y.; Lester, Jenny; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Easton, Douglas F.
2017-01-01
Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]–positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2×10−53). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2×10−20). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management. PMID
-
Kozan, Omer
2011-09-01
We evaluated clinical practice in cardiovascular risk management and related patient compliance among Turkish hypertensive patients. This noninterventional, observational study included 1023 patients (620 women, 403 men; mean age 58.4 ± 10.6 years) with essential hypertension, from 50 centers across Turkey. Patients were evaluated at a cross-sectional phase and a follow-up phase of nine months. Data obtained at the cross-sectional phase included patient demographics, medical and past history, cardiovascular risk status, and current practice patterns regarding cardiovascular risk management. The mean duration of hypertension was 8.1 ± 7.1 years. The mean body mass index was 30.3 ± 5.2 kg/m2 and systolic and diastolic blood pressures (BP) were 147.8 ± 22.4 and 88.9 ± 12.5 mmHg, respectively. Ten-year coronary heart disease risk and risk level were significantly higher in males, and significantly increased in the presence of diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and renal disease and/or microalbuminuria (p<0.05). In past year history of cardiovascular risk management, 7.3% of the patients did not have BP measurements; no diet was recommended to 15.6%; 79.3% had high BP levels, and patient compliance with antihypertensive drug treatment and dietary recommendations were 87.7% and 62.5%, respectively. A similar profile was observed for dyslipidemia and diabetes mellitus. The physicians' efforts to motivate the patients to quit smoking, to lose weight, and involve in physical exercise were far below satisfactory levels, and the patients' compliance rates with these recommendations were even lower. Our study demonstrates that hypertensive patients are not adequately evaluated for cardiovascular risk, which is significantly increased in the presence of various cardiovascular risk factors such as diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and renal disease.
-
2018-01-01
Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869
-
Proceedings of Conference XIII, evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk
Charonnat, Barbara B.
1981-01-01
The participants in the conference concluded that a great deal of useful research has been performed in the national Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers and that the state-of-knowledge concerning the evaluation of seismic hazards and risk has been advanced substantially. Many of the technical issues raised during the conference are less controversial now because of new information and insights gained during the first three years of the expanded research program conducted under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act. Utilization of research results by many groups of users has also improved during this period and further improvement in utilization appears likely. Additional research is still required to resolve more completely the many complex technical issues summarized above and described in the papers contained in the proceedings. Improved certainty of research results on the evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk is required before full utilization can be made by state and local governments who deal. with people frequently having a different perception of the hazard and its risk to them than that perceived by scientists or engineers. Each of the papers contained in the proceedings contain throughtful recommendations for improving the state-of-knowledge. Two papers, in particular, focussed on this particular theme. The first was presented by Lynn Sykes in the Geologic Keynote Address. He identified geographic areas throughout the world which may be considered as counterparts or analogues of seismic zones in the United States. He concluded that much can be learned about prediction, tectonic settings, earthquake hazards, and earthquake risk for sites in the United States by studying their tectonic analogues in other countries. The second paper was presented by John Blume in the Engineering Keynote Address. He suggested 20 specific research topics that, in his opinion, will significantly advance the state
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong
2018-01-01
Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.
-
Patient understanding of drug risks: an evaluation of medication guide assessments
Knox, Caitlin; Hampp, Christian; Willy, Mary; Winterstein, Almut G.; Dal Pan, Gerald
2016-01-01
Purpose When a Medication Guide (MG) is part of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), manufacturers assess the effectiveness of MGs through patient surveys, which have not undergone systematic evaluation. We aimed to characterize knowledge rates from these patient surveys, describe their design and respondent characteristics, and explore predictors of acceptable knowledge rates. Methods We analyzed MG assessments submitted to the Food and Drug Administration from September 2008 through June 2012. We evaluated the prevalence of specific characteristics, and calculated knowledge rates, whereby we defined “acceptable knowledge” when ≥ 80% of respondents correctly answered questions about the primary drug risk. Univariate logistic models were used to investigate the predictors of acceptable knowledge rates. Results We analyzed the first completed MG assessment for each drug with a patient survey, resulting in 66 unique MG assessments. The mean knowledge rate was 63.8%, with 20 MG assessments (30.3%) achieving the 80% threshold. Compared to assessments that did not reach acceptable knowledge rates, those that did were more likely associated with additional REMS elements (e.g. Elements to Assure Safe Use or Communication Plans). Other factors, including mean age, reading or understanding the MG, and being offered or accepting counseling were not associated with knowledge rates. There was considerable variation in the design of MG assessments. Conclusions Most MG assessments did not reach the 80% knowledge threshold, but those associated with additional interventions were more likely to achieve it. Our study highlights the need to improve patient-directed information and the methods of assessing it. PMID:25808393
-
Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods.
Park, Sungchul; Basu, Anirban
2018-06-01
Risk adjustment is instituted to counter risk selection by accurately equating payments with expected expenditures. Traditional risk-adjustment methods are designed to estimate accurate payments at the group level. However, this generates residual risks at the individual level, especially for high-expenditure individuals, thereby inducing health plans to avoid those with high residual risks. To identify an optimal risk-adjustment method, we perform a comprehensive comparison of prediction accuracies at the group level, at the tail distributions, and at the individual level across 19 estimators: 9 parametric regression, 7 machine learning, and 3 distributional estimators. Using the 2013-2014 MarketScan database, we find that no one estimator performs best in all prediction accuracies. Generally, machine learning and distribution-based estimators achieve higher group-level prediction accuracy than parametric regression estimators. However, parametric regression estimators show higher tail distribution prediction accuracy and individual-level prediction accuracy, especially at the tails of the distribution. This suggests that there is a trade-off in selecting an appropriate risk-adjustment method between estimating accurate payments at the group level and lower residual risks at the individual level. Our results indicate that an optimal method cannot be determined solely on the basis of statistical metrics but rather needs to account for simulating plans' risk selective behaviors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
-
Risk-taking behaviours among fishermen in Morocco by the evaluation of "ordalique" functioning.
Laraqui, Omar; Laraqui, Salwa; Manar, Nadia; Sahraoui, Mohammed Yassin; Sebbar, Lamia; Ghailan, Tarik; Deschamps, Frédéric; Laraqui, Chakib El Houssine
2017-01-01
The aim was to investigate the potential fishermen's psychological functioning which induces risk-taking behaviours by evaluating the ordalique functioning. This cross-sectional epidemiological study was conducted in three ports of northern Morocco in 2016 and concerned 1413 traditional fishermen working in small embarkations and 1049 administrative staff working in the maritime sector on land. Both groups were male, comparable for age and educational level. The survey support was an individual questionnaire covering socio-demographic characteristics, toxic habits and ordalique functioning questionnaire (le questionnaire de fonctionnement ordalique, QFO). It is composed of 42 items and four dimensions which are evaluated: risk-taking, transgression, positive representation of risk-taking and believes. The prevalence of the ordalique behaviour and its four dimensions was significantly higher among traditional fishermen than administrative staff on land; 66.4% vs. 33.6% (p < 0.0001) for risk-taking, 65.2% vs. 34.8% (p < 0.0001) for transgression, 60.4% vs. 39.6% (p < 0.0001) for positive representation, 59.8% vs. 51.2% (p < 0.0001) for believes. For all range ages, the prevalence of ordalique functioning was higher among fishermen than administrative staff on land. Among fishermen, the prevalence of the was significantly higher among the under 40 years old (69.1% vs. 54.7%, p < 0.0001). The prevalence of toxic habits among ordalique fishermen was significantly greater than no-ordalique ones: tobacco (54.5% vs. 48.6%, p < 0.035), alcohol (42.8% vs. 32.4%, p < 0.0001), cannabis (34.8% vs. 26.6%, p < 0.0001), psychotropic drugs (13.8% vs. 10.4%, p < 0.081) and a combination of toxic habits (27.7% vs. 19.6%, p < 0.0001). Ordalique behaviour among fishermen may explain the partial failure of preventive measures in this sector. Risk-taking behaviours into account in the safety system could reduce occupational hazards in the fishery.
-
Chen, Qiuying; Liu, Jingling; Ho, Kin Chung; Yang, Zhifeng
2012-03-15
Ecological risk assessment for water environment is significant to water resource management of basin. Effective environmental management and systems restoration such as the Haihe River Basin require holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the basin. As an effective technical tool for evaluating the ecological risk, relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional scale successfully. In this study, the risk transfer from upstream of basin was considered and the RRM was developed through introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which includes water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the assessment endpoints. We created a conceptual model which depicting potential and effect pathways from source to stressor to habitat to endpoint. The Haihe River Basin estuary (HRBE) was selected as the model case. The results showed that there were two low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the HRBE. The results also indicated that urbanization was the biggest source, the second was shipping and the third was industry, their risk scores are 5.65, 4.71 and 3.68 respectively. Furthermore, habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores (2.66), the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (1.75) and the third was pathogens (1.75). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. For habitats, open waters (9.59) and intertidal mudflat were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Ecological service values damaged (30.54) and biodiversity decreased were facing the biggest risk pressure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Evans, R Scott; Benuzillo, Jose; Horne, Benjamin D; Lloyd, James F; Bradshaw, Alejandra; Budge, Deborah; Rasmusson, Kismet D; Roberts, Colleen; Buckway, Jason; Geer, Norma; Garrett, Teresa; Lappé, Donald L
2016-09-01
Develop and evaluate an automated identification and predictive risk report for hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients. Dictated free-text reports from the previous 24 h were analyzed each day with natural language processing (NLP), to help improve the early identification of hospitalized patients with HF. A second application that uses an Intermountain Healthcare-developed predictive score to determine each HF patient's risk for 30-day hospital readmission and 30-day mortality was also developed. That information was included in an identification and predictive risk report, which was evaluated at a 354-bed hospital that treats high-risk HF patients. The addition of NLP-identified HF patients increased the identification score's sensitivity from 82.6% to 95.3% and its specificity from 82.7% to 97.5%, and the model's positive predictive value is 97.45%. Daily multidisciplinary discharge planning meetings are now based on the information provided by the HF identification and predictive report, and clinician's review of potential HF admissions takes less time compared to the previously used manual methodology (10 vs 40 min). An evaluation of the use of the HF predictive report identified a significant reduction in 30-day mortality and a significant increase in patient discharges to home care instead of to a specialized nursing facility. Using clinical decision support to help identify HF patients and automatically calculating their 30-day all-cause readmission and 30-day mortality risks, coupled with a multidisciplinary care process pathway, was found to be an effective process to improve HF patient identification, significantly reduce 30-day mortality, and significantly increase patient discharges to home care. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
-
Evaluation of risk factors for perforated peptic ulcer.
Yamamoto, Kazuki; Takahashi, Osamu; Arioka, Hiroko; Kobayashi, Daiki
2018-02-15
The aim of this study was to evaluate the prediction factors for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU). At St. Luke's International Hospital in Tokyo, Japan, a case control study was performed between August 2004 and March 2016. All patients diagnosed with PPU were included. As control subjects, patients with age, sex and date of CT scan corresponding to those of the PPU subjects were included in the study at a proportion of 2 controls for every PPU subject. All data such as past medical histories, physical findings, and laboratory data were collected through chart reviews. Univariate analyses and multivariate analyses with logistic regression were conducted, and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) were calculated to show validity. Sensitivity analyses were performed to confirm results using a stepwise method and conditional logistic regression. A total of 408 patients were included in this study; 136 were a group of patients with PPU, and 272 were a control group. Univariate analysis showed statistical significance in many categories. Four different models of multivariate analyses were conducted, and significant differences were found for muscular defense and a history of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) in all models. The conditional forced-entry analysis of muscular defense showed an odds ratio (OR) of 23.8 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.70-100.0), and the analysis of PUD history showed an OR of 6.40 (95% CI: 1.13-36.2). The sensitivity analysis showed consistent results, with an OR of 23.8-366.2 for muscular defense and an OR of 3.67-7.81 for PUD history. The area under the curve (AUC) of all models was high enough to confirm the results. However, anticoagulants, known risk factors for PUD, did not increase the risk for PPU in our study. The conditional forced-entry analysis of anticoagulant use showed an OR of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.03-22.3). The evaluation of prediction factors and development of a prediction rule for PPU may help our decision making in performing a
-
Deleger, Louise; Brodzinski, Holly; Zhai, Haijun; Li, Qi; Lingren, Todd; Kirkendall, Eric S; Alessandrini, Evaline; Solti, Imre
2013-12-01
To evaluate a proposed natural language processing (NLP) and machine-learning based automated method to risk stratify abdominal pain patients by analyzing the content of the electronic health record (EHR). We analyzed the EHRs of a random sample of 2100 pediatric emergency department (ED) patients with abdominal pain, including all with a final diagnosis of appendicitis. We developed an automated system to extract relevant elements from ED physician notes and lab values and to automatically assign a risk category for acute appendicitis (high, equivocal, or low), based on the Pediatric Appendicitis Score. We evaluated the performance of the system against a manually created gold standard (chart reviews by ED physicians) for recall, specificity, and precision. The system achieved an average F-measure of 0.867 (0.869 recall and 0.863 precision) for risk classification, which was comparable to physician experts. Recall/precision were 0.897/0.952 in the low-risk category, 0.855/0.886 in the high-risk category, and 0.854/0.766 in the equivocal-risk category. The information that the system required as input to achieve high F-measure was available within the first 4 h of the ED visit. Automated appendicitis risk categorization based on EHR content, including information from clinical notes, shows comparable performance to physician chart reviewers as measured by their inter-annotator agreement and represents a promising new approach for computerized decision support to promote application of evidence-based medicine at the point of care.
-
Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.
Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.
-
Levinson, Cheri A.; Rodebaugh, Thomas L.; White, Emily K.; Menatti, Andrew; Weeks, Justin W.; Iacovino, Juliette M.; Warren, Cortney S.
2013-01-01
Social anxiety and eating disorders are highly comorbid. Social appearance anxiety (i.e., fear of negative evaluation of one's appearance), general fear of negative evaluation, and perfectionism have each been proposed as risk factors for both social anxiety disorder and the eating disorders. However, no research to date has examined all three factors simultaneously. Using structural equation modeling in two diverse samples (N = 236; N = 136) we tested a model in which each of these risk factors were uniquely associated with social anxiety and eating disorder symptoms. We found support for social appearance anxiety as a shared risk factor between social anxiety and eating disorder symptoms, whereas fear of negative evaluation was a risk factor only for social anxiety symptoms. Despite significant zero-order relationships, two facets of perfectionism (high standards and maladaptive perfectionism) did not emerge as a risk factor for either disorder when all constructs were considered. These results were maintained when gender, body mass index, trait negative affect, and depression were included in the model. It is possible that treating negative appearance evaluation fears may reduce both eating disorder and social anxiety symptoms. PMID:23583741
-
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.
2000-05-01
Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations.
-
Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clark, Robert M.; Thurnau, Robert C.
2011-12-01
Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie, Wyoming, USA). Using the risk model a cost/ benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM), is used to assist in making improved repair, replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes. A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.
-
Tsang, Michael P; Kikuchi-Uehara, Emi; Sonnemann, Guido W; Aymonier, Cyril; Hirao, Masahiko
2017-08-04
It has been some 15 years since the topics of sustainability and nanotechnologies first appeared together in the scientific literature and became a focus of organizations' research and policy developments. On the one hand, this focus is directed towards approaches and tools for risk assessment and management and on the other hand towards life-cycle thinking and assessment. Comparable to their application for regular chemicals, each tool is seen to serve separate objectives as it relates to evaluating nanotechnologies' safety or resource efficiency, respectively. While nanomaterials may provide resource efficient production and consumption, this must balance any potential hazards they pose across their life-cycles. This Perspective advocates for integrating these two tools at the methodological level for achieving this objective, and it explains what advantages and challenges this offers decision-makers while highlighting what research is needed to further enhance integration.
-
Pharmaceuticals released from senior residences: occurrence and risk evaluation.
Lacorte, Silvia; Luis, Silvia; Gómez-Canela, Cristian; Sala-Comorera, Teresa; Courtier, Audrey; Roig, Benoit; Oliveira-Brett, Ana Maria; Joannis-Cassan, Claire; Aragonés, Juan Ignacio; Poggio, Lucia; Noguer, Thierry; Lima, Luisa; Barata, Carlos; Calas-Blanchard, Carole
2018-03-01
One of the main pursuits, yet most difficult, in monitoring studies is to identify the sources of environmental pollution. In this study, we have identified health-care facilities from south European countries as an important source of pharmaceuticals in the environment. We have estimated that compounds consumed in by the elderly and released from effluents of senior residences can reach river waters at a concentration higher than 0.01 μg/L, which is the European Medicines Agency (EMA) threshold for risk evaluation of pharmaceuticals in surface waters. This study has been based on five health institutions in Portugal, Spain, and France, with 52 to 130 beds. We have compiled the pharmaceuticals dispensed on a daily base and calculated the consumption rates. From 54.9 to 1801 g of pharmaceuticals are consumed daily, with laxatives, analgesics, antiepileptics, antibiotics, and antidiabetic agents being the main drug families administered. According to excretion rates, dilution in the sewerage system, and elimination in wastewater treatment plants, macrogol, metformin, paracetamol, acetylcysteine, amoxicillin, and gabapentin, among others, are expected to reach river waters. Finally, we discuss the risk management actions related to the discharge of pharmaceuticals from senior residences to surface waters.
-
Biochemical Benefits, Diagnosis, and Clinical Risks Evaluation of Kratom.
Fluyau, Dimy; Revadigar, Neelambika
2017-01-01
Kratom ( Mitragyna speciosa ) is a tropical tree with a long history of traditional use in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia. Kratom is also known as Thom, Thang, and Biak. Its leaves and the teas brewed from them have long been used by people in that region to manage pain and opioid withdrawal and to stave off fatigue. Kratom is actually consumed throughout the world for its stimulant effects and as an opioid substitute (in form of tea, chewed, smoked, or ingested in capsules). Some case reports have associated kratom exposure with psychosis, seizures, intrahepatic cholestasis, other medical conditions, and deaths. The clinical manifestations of kratom effects are not well defined and the clinical studies are limited. Data research suggest that both stimulant and sedative dose-dependent effects do exist, in addition to antinociceptive, antidepressant activity, anxiolytic-like effects, and anorectic effects, but a growing concern for the drug's effects and safety of use has resulted in national and international attention primarily due to an increase in hospital visits and deaths in several countries that are believed to have been caused by extracts of the plant. There is a dearth of double blind controlled studies. In this study, we aim to use existing literature to clarify both benefits and risks of kratom as well as its diagnosis evaluation as kratom misuse is an emerging trend in the Western world. Literature review using databases such as Embase, Medline, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Mendeley from 2007 to 2017 were evaluated by all authors to analyze current state on benefits, risks, and diagnosis evaluation of kratom ( M. speciosa ). Data analysis suggested that kratom possesses some benefits such as stimulant and sedative effects as wells as antinociceptive effects. It seems to inhibit pro-inflammatory mediator release and vascular permeability and can enhance immunity. In addition, it may be an antidepressant and anorectic. However, kratom can cause
-
Domagała-Dobrzycka, M
2000-01-01
The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between selected risk factors at the workplace and health indices in relation to nutritional habits and nutritional status in industrial workers. Exposure to physical and chemical risk factors and their impact on health in the province of Szczecin and in Poland was evaluated basing on data published in the Yearbooks of the Province of Szczecin, the Central Statistics Bureau (GUS) and Regional Inspectorate of Labor (OIP) in Szczecin. A random selection of plants in Szczecin was done and workplaces with chemical and physical risk levels exceeding the highest acceptable values were identified. Measurements of concentrations of chemicals and intensity of physical factors were performed by Work Environment Research Laboratories of the plants and by the laboratory of the Sanitary and Epidemiological Center in Szczecin. Eighty-eight men exposed to occupational risk factors were randomly selected. The mean period of exposure in that group was approximately ten years. The control group was composed of male workers (n = 83) not exposed to any of the risk factors in question (Tab. 3). Nutritional habits and nutritional status were studied during summer/autumn and winter/spring periods. Dietary survey consisted of the last 24-hour nutrient intake questionnaire. Nutritional status evaluation was based on body mass index (BMI) values and results of the following laboratory tests: blood cell count, levels of total protein, prealbumin, retinol binding protein (RBP), magnesium, inorganic phosphorus, and ascorbic acid. The following results were obtained: 1. Physical factors constituted the most frequent source of occupational risk in the province of Szczecin and in Poland in 1990-1994 (Tab. 1); 2. The incidence of occupational risk and occupational disease morbidity rates in 1990-1994 were lower for the province of Szczecin than the average for Poland; 3. The rate of fatal accidents at work in 1982-1994 was higher for the
-
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-11-08
.... Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) published for public comment Draft Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic... comment Draft Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating Reactors to inform addressees...
-
Sadique, Z; Grieve, R; Harrison, D A; Jit, M; Allen, E; Rowan, K M
2013-12-01
This article proposes an integrated approach to the development, validation, and evaluation of new risk prediction models illustrated with the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation study, which developed risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive fungal disease (IFD). Our decision-analytical model compared alternative strategies for preventing IFD at up to three clinical decision time points (critical care admission, after 24 hours, and end of day 3), followed with antifungal prophylaxis for those judged "high" risk versus "no formal risk assessment." We developed prognostic models to predict the risk of IFD before critical care unit discharge, with data from 35,455 admissions to 70 UK adult, critical care units, and validated the models externally. The decision model was populated with positive predictive values and negative predictive values from the best-fitting risk models. We projected lifetime cost-effectiveness and expected value of partial perfect information for groups of parameters. The risk prediction models performed well in internal and external validation. Risk assessment and prophylaxis at the end of day 3 was the most cost-effective strategy at the 2% and 1% risk threshold. Risk assessment at each time point was the most cost-effective strategy at a 0.5% risk threshold. Expected values of partial perfect information were high for positive predictive values or negative predictive values (£11 million-£13 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (£11 million). It is cost-effective to formally assess the risk of IFD for non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients. This integrated approach to developing and evaluating risk models is useful for informing clinical practice and future research investment. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.
-
Evaluation of injury and fatality risk in rock and ice climbing.
Schöffl, Volker; Morrison, Audry; Schwarz, Ulrich; Schöffl, Isabelle; Küpper, Thomas
2010-08-01
Rock and ice climbing are widely considered to be 'high-risk' sporting activities that are associated with a high incidence of severe injury and even death, compared with more mainstream sports. However, objective scientific data to support this perception are questionable. Accordingly, >400 sport-specific injury studies were analysed and compared by quantifying the injury incidence and objectively grading the injury severity (using the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics score) per 1000 hours of sporting participation. Fatalities were also analysed. The analysis revealed that fatalities occurred in all sports, but it was not always clear whether the sport itself or pre-existing health conditions contributed or caused the deaths. Bouldering (ropeless climbing to low heights), sport climbing (mostly bolt protected lead climbing with little objective danger) and indoor climbing (climbing indoors on artificial rock structures), showed a small injury rate, minor injury severity and few fatalities. As more objective/external dangers exist for alpine and ice climbing, the injury rate, injury severity and fatality were all higher. Overall, climbing sports had a lower injury incidence and severity score than many popular sports, including basketball, sailing or soccer; indoor climbing ranked the lowest in terms of injuries of all sports assessed. Nevertheless, a fatality risk remains, especially in alpine and ice climbing. In the absence of a standard definition for a 'high-risk' sport, categorizing climbing as a high-risk sport was found to be either subjective or dependent on the definition used. In conclusion, this analysis showed that retrospective data on sport-specific injuries and fatalities are not reported in a standardized manner. To improve preventative injury measures for climbing sports, it is recommended that a standardized, robust and comprehensive sport-specific scoring model should be developed to report and fully evaluate the injury risk, severity
-
Evaluating health risks from occupational exposure to pesticides and the regulatory response.
Woodruff, T J; Kyle, A D; Bois, F Y
1994-01-01
In this study, we used measurements of occupational exposures to pesticides in agriculture to evaluate health risks and analyzed how the federal regulatory program is addressing these risks. Dose estimates developed by the State of California from measured occupational exposures to 41 pesticides were compared to standard indices of acute toxicity (LD50) and chronic effects (reference dose). Lifetime cancer risks were estimated using cancer potencies. Estimated absorbed daily doses for mixers, loaders, and applicators of pesticides ranged from less than 0.0001% to 48% of the estimated human LD50 values, and doses for 10 of 40 pesticides exceeded 1% of the estimated human LD50 values. Estimated lifetime absorbed daily doses ranged from 0.1% to 114,000% of the reference doses developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and doses for 13 of 25 pesticides were above them. Lifetime cancer risks ranged from 1 per million to 1700 per million, and estimates for 12 of 13 pesticides were above 1 per million. Similar results were obtained for field workers and flaggers. For the pesticides examined, exposures pose greater risks of chronic effects than acute effects. Exposure reduction measures, including use of closed mixing systems and personal protective equipment, significantly reduced exposures. Proposed regulations rely primarily on requirements for personal protective equipment and use restrictions to protect workers. Chronic health risks are not considered in setting these requirements. Reviews of pesticides by the federal pesticide regulatory program have had little effect on occupational risks. Policy strategies that offer immediate protection for workers and that are not dependent on extensive review of individual pesticides should be pursued. Images Figure 1. PMID:7713022
-
A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Henderson, Edward M.; Maggio, Gaspare; Elrada, Hassan A.; Yazdpour, Sabrina J.
2003-01-01
The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.
-
Hovick, Shelly R; Bevers, Therese B; Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Kim, Stephanie; Dailey, Phokeng M; Jones, Lovell A; Peterson, Susan K
2017-03-01
Online cancer risk assessment tools, which provide personalized cancer information and recommendations based on personal data input by users, are a promising cancer education approach; however, few tools have been evaluated. A randomized controlled study was conducted to compare user impressions of one tool, Cancer Risk Check (CRC), to non-personalized educational information delivered online as series of self-advancing slides (the control). CRC users (N = 1452) rated the tool to be as interesting as the control (p > .05), but users were more likely to report that the information was difficult to understand and not applicable to them (p < .05). Information seeking and sharing also were lower among CRC users; thus, although impressions of CRC were favorable, it was not shown to be superior to existing approaches. We hypothesized CRC was less effective because it contained few visual and graphical elements; therefore, CRC was compared to a text-based control (online PDF file) post hoc. CRC users rated the information to be more interesting, less difficult to understand, and better able to hold their attention (p < .05). Post hoc results suggest the visual presentation of risk is critical to tool success.
-
Clinical outcomes of tricuspid valve repair accompanying left-sided heart disease
Azarnoush, Kasra; Nadeemy, Ahmad S; Pereira, Bruno; Leesar, Massoud A; Lambert, Céline; Azhari, Alaa; Eljezi, Vedat; Dauphin, Nicolas; Geoffroy, Etienne; Camilleri, Lionel
2017-01-01
AIM To determine whether the need for additional tricuspid valve repair is an independent risk factor when surgery is required for a left-sided heart disease. METHODS One hundred and eighty patients (68 ± 12 years, 79 males) underwent tricuspid annuoplasty. Cox proportional-hazards regression model for multivariate analysis was performed for variables found significant in univariate analyses. RESULTS Tricuspid regurgitation etiology was functional in 154 cases (86%), organic in 16 cases (9%), and mixed in 10 cases (6%), respectively. Postoperative mortality at 30 days was 11.7%. Mean follow-up was 51.7 mo with survival at 5 years of 73.5%. Risk factors for mortality were acute endocarditis [hazard ratio (HR) = 9.22 (95%CI: 2.87-29.62), P < 0.001], ischemic heart disease requiring myocardial revascularization [HR = 2.79 (1.26-6.20), P = 0.012], and aortic valve stenosis [HR = 2.6 (1.15-5.85), P = 0.021]. Significant predictive factors from univariate analyses were double-valve replacement combined with tricuspid annuloplasty [HR = 2.21 (1.11-4.39), P = 0.003] and preoperatively impaired ejection fraction [HR = 1.98 (1.04-3.92), P = 0.044]. However, successful mitral valve repair showed a protective effect [HR = 0.32 (0.10-0.98), P = 0.046]. Additionally, in instances where tricuspid regurgitation required the need for concomitant tricuspid valve repair, mortality predictor scores such as Euroscore 2 could be shortened to a simple Euroscore-tricuspid comprised of only 7 inputs. The explanation may lie in the fact that significant tricuspid regurgitation following left-sided heart disease represents an independent risk factor encompassing several other factors such as pulmonary arterial hypertension and dyspnea. CONCLUSION Tricuspid annuloplasty should be used more often as a concomitant procedure in the presence of relevant tricuspid regurgitation, although it usually reveals an overly delayed correction of a left-sided heart disease. PMID:29104738
-
Pulmonary atelectasis in children anesthetized for cardiothoracic MR: evaluation of risk factors.
Blitman, Netta M; Lee, Hwayoung K; Jain, Vineet R; Vicencio, Alfin G; Girshin, Michael; Haramati, Linda B
2007-01-01
To systematically assess the frequency and risk factors for atelectasis in children anesthetized for cardiothoracic magnetic resonance (MR). We retrospectively identified 58 consecutive children (age range, 6 days to 21 years) who underwent cardiothoracic MR from January 2001 to December 2004 whose imaging and medical charts were available. One certificate of added qualification pediatric radiologist and 1 of 2 cardiothoracic radiologists, in consensus, evaluated the first and last set of axial images. Images were evaluated for cardiac, vascular and tracheobronchial abnormalities, and degree of atelectasis. Atelectasis was considered significant if the equivalent of 3 or more segments were involved. Patients received 1 or more of 7 anesthetic medications (n = 27), chloral hydrate alone (n = 4), or required no anesthesia (n = 27). Significant atelectasis developed only in those receiving anesthetic medications. Thirty-seven percent (10/27) of anesthetized children developed significant atelectasis in the first and/or last axial sequence. In 90% (9 /10) of patients, it developed in the first axial sequence. Strong risk factors were age younger than 1 year (80%, 8/10, P = 0.029) and MR evidence of tracheobronchial narrowing (50%, 5/10, P = 0.008). In patients with vascular ring, there was a trend toward significance (40%, 4/10, P = 0.09). None of the anesthesia factors were significant, including ventilation mode, anesthesia duration, or American Society of Anesthesiology risk (all P > 0.1). Atelectasis may occur shortly after induction of anesthesia in children younger than 1 year of age or with tracheobronchial narrowing when anesthetized for cardiothoracic MR.
-
Evaluation of Cervicography Screening for Cervical Cancer in a High Risk Population
2000-02-16
Higher sensitivity was associated with younger age , premenopausal status, the presence of metaplasia. the absence of cervicovaginal atrophy, and improved...recommended for postmenopausal women and/or women ages 50 and older. iv EVALUATION OF CERVICOGRAPHY SCREENING FOR CERVICAL CANCER IN A HIGH-RISK POPULATION...Institute. The Guanacaste site was selected because of its consistently high age -adjusted rates of cervical cancer despite existing Papanicolaou
-
Evaluating anthropogenic risk of grassland and forest habitat degradation using land-cover data
Kurt Riitters; James Wickham; Timothy Wade
2009-01-01
The effects of landscape context on habitat quality are receiving increased attention in conservation biology. The objective of this research is to demonstrate a landscape-level approach to mapping and evaluating the anthropogenic risks of grassland and forest habitat degradation by examining habitat context as defined by intensive anthropogenic land uses at multiple...
-
Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.
Gabardi, Steven
2011-07-01
The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area
-
Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Wistar Audiogenic Rat (WAR) Strain
Fazan, Rubens; Silva, Carlos Alberto A.; Oliveira, José Antônio Cortes; Salgado, Helio Cesar; Montano, Nicola; Garcia-Cairasco, Norberto
2015-01-01
Introduction Risk factors for life-threatening cardiovascular events were evaluated in an experimental model of epilepsy, the Wistar Audiogenic Rat (WAR) strain. Methods We used long-term ECG recordings in conscious, one year old, WAR and Wistar control counterparts to evaluate spontaneous arrhythmias and heart rate variability, a tool to assess autonomic cardiac control. Ventricular function was also evaluated using the pressure-volume conductance system in anesthetized rats. Results Basal RR interval (RRi) was similar between WAR and Wistar rats (188±5 vs 199±6 ms). RRi variability strongly suggests that WAR present an autonomic imbalance with sympathetic overactivity, which is an isolated risk factor for cardiovascular events. Anesthetized WAR showed lower arterial pressure (92±3 vs 115±5 mmHg) and exhibited indices of systolic dysfunction, such as higher ventricle end-diastolic pressure (9.2±0.6 vs 5.6±1 mmHg) and volume (137±9 vs 68±9 μL) as well as lower rate of increase in ventricular pressure (5266±602 vs 7320±538 mmHg.s-1). Indices of diastolic cardiac function, such as lower rate of decrease in ventricular pressure (-5014±780 vs -7766±998 mmHg.s-1) and a higher slope of the linear relationship between end-diastolic pressure and volume (0.078±0.011 vs 0.036±0.011 mmHg.μL), were also found in WAR as compared to Wistar control rats. Moreover, Wistar rats had 3 to 6 ventricular ectopic beats, whereas WAR showed 15 to 30 ectopic beats out of the 20,000 beats analyzed in each rat. Conclusions The autonomic imbalance observed previously at younger age is also present in aged WAR and, additionally, a cardiac dysfunction was also observed in the rats. These findings make this experimental model of epilepsy a valuable tool to study risk factors for cardiovascular events in epilepsy. PMID:26029918
-
Relevance of the c-statistic when evaluating risk-adjustment models in surgery.
Merkow, Ryan P; Hall, Bruce L; Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Wang, Edward; Chow, Warren B; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y
2012-05-01
The measurement of hospital quality based on outcomes requires risk adjustment. The c-statistic is a popular tool used to judge model performance, but can be limited, particularly when evaluating specific operations in focused populations. Our objectives were to examine the interpretation and relevance of the c-statistic when used in models with increasingly similar case mix and to consider an alternative perspective on model calibration based on a graphical depiction of model fit. From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2008-2009), patients were identified who underwent a general surgery procedure, and procedure groups were increasingly restricted: colorectal-all, colorectal-elective cases only, and colorectal-elective cancer cases only. Mortality and serious morbidity outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression-based risk adjustment, and model c-statistics and calibration curves were used to compare model performance. During the study period, 323,427 general, 47,605 colorectal-all, 39,860 colorectal-elective, and 21,680 colorectal cancer patients were studied. Mortality ranged from 1.0% in general surgery to 4.1% in the colorectal-all group, and serious morbidity ranged from 3.9% in general surgery to 12.4% in the colorectal-all procedural group. As case mix was restricted, c-statistics progressively declined from the general to the colorectal cancer surgery cohorts for both mortality and serious morbidity (mortality: 0.949 to 0.866; serious morbidity: 0.861 to 0.668). Calibration was evaluated graphically by examining predicted vs observed number of events over risk deciles. For both mortality and serious morbidity, there was no qualitative difference in calibration identified between the procedure groups. In the present study, we demonstrate how the c-statistic can become less informative and, in certain circumstances, can lead to incorrect model-based conclusions, as case mix is restricted and patients become
-
A spatial evaluation of global wildfire-water risks to human and natural systems.
Robinne, François-Nicolas; Bladon, Kevin D; Miller, Carol; Parisien, Marc-André; Mathieu, Jérôme; Flannigan, Mike D
2018-01-01
The large mediatic coverage of recent massive wildfires across the world has emphasized the vulnerability of freshwater resources. The extensive hydrogeomorphic effects from a wildfire can impair the ability of watersheds to provide safe drinking water to downstream communities and high-quality water to maintain riverine ecosystem health. Safeguarding water use for human activities and ecosystems is required for sustainable development; however, no global assessment of wildfire impacts on water supply is currently available. Here, we provide the first global evaluation of wildfire risks to water security, in the form of a spatially explicit index. We adapted the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response risk analysis framework to select a comprehensive set of indicators of fire activity and water availability, which we then aggregated to a single index of wildfire-water risk using a simple additive weighted model. Our results show that water security in many regions of the world is potentially vulnerable, regardless of socio-economic status. However, in developing countries, a critical component of the risk is the lack of socio-economic capability to respond to disasters. Our work highlights the importance of addressing wildfire-induced risks in the development of water security policies; the geographic differences in the components of the overall risk could help adapting those policies to different regional contexts. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P
2014-03-01
To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was -1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (-0 .18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (-1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or for gone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
-
Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro
2018-01-03
The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P < 0.001), whereas the observed morbidity of Centre 3 was higher than the predicted morbidity (observed 41.1% vs predicted 24.3%, P < 0.001). Centre 1 had higher observed mortality when compared with the predicted mortality (3.6% vs 2.1%, P = 0.005), whereas Centre 2 had an observed mortality rate significantly lower than the predicted mortality rate (1.2% vs 2.5%, P = 0.013). Centre 3 had an observed mortality rate in line with the predicted mortality rate (observed 1.4% vs predicted 2.4%, P = 0.17). The observed mortality rates in the patients with major complications were 30.8% in Centre 1 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.8%, P < 0.001), 8.2% in Centre 2 (versus predicted mortality rate 4.1%, P = 0.030) and 9.0% in Centre 3 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.5%, P = 0.014). The Eurolung models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.
-
Isahak, Anizan; Siwar, Chamhuri; Ismail, Shaharuddin M.; Hanafi, Zulkifli; Zainuddin, Mohd S.
2018-01-01
Shelter centres are important locations to safeguard people from helpless situations and are an integral part of disaster risk reduction (DRR), particularly for flood DRR. The establishment of shelter centres, and their design based on scientific assessment, is crucial. Yet, they are very much related to the geographic location, socio-economic conditions and the livelihoods of the affected communities. However, many parts of the developing world are still lagging behind in ensuring such scientific design. Considering the flood disaster in 2014 that affected the residents living along the Pahang River Basin, in this study we delineate the communities at risk and evaluate the existing shelter centres to determine how they reduce people’s vulnerability to the risks associated with rural and urban landscapes. We used spatial analysis tools to delineate risk zones and to evaluate existing evacuation systems. A flood disaster risk map was produced to determine which communities are living with risks. Subsequently, the distribution of shelter centres examined whether they are able to support people living at the flood risk zones. These centres were also evaluated using a set of international guidelines for effective disaster shelters. This reveals that the number of shelter centres is not adequate. The designation and designing of shelter centres are not being done scientifically. The maps produced here have a lot of potential to support disaster management decisions, in particular site selection and the prioritisation of centres. The study concludes with a set of guidelines and recommendations for structural and non-structural measures, such as alternative livelihoods and the potential of ecotourism, which may improve the resilience among flood-affected communities; and the decision-making process for the overall flood DRR initiatives.
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yu, Nanpeng
As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this
-
Machado, Fernando S; Mourato, Susana
2002-07-01
Marine water pollution affects many recreational sites around the world. It has impacts not only on recreational activities but also on health risks for those who come into direct contact with the water. Few economic studies have explicitly considered the health risks of bathing in polluted marine waters and none have attempted to separate health benefits from other benefits of marine water quality improvements. This paper uses stated preference techniques to separately evaluate the multiple benefits of improving the quality of marine recreational waters at the Estoril Coast in Portugal. The results indicate that health risk reductions are only a small fraction of the total social benefits of water quality improvements.
-
A Formative Evaluation of the Children, Youth, and Families at Risk Coaching Model
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Olson, Jonathan R.; Smith, Burgess; Hawkey, Kyle R.; Perkins, Daniel F.; Borden, Lynne M.
2016-01-01
In this article, we describe the results of a formative evaluation of a coaching model designed to support recipients of funding through the Children, Youth, and Families at Risk (CYFAR) initiative. Results indicate that CYFAR coaches draw from a variety of types of coaching and that CYFAR principle investigators (PIs) are generally satisfied with…
-
Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Osorio, Victor B
2015-01-01
This study provides new public health data about U.S. civil air shows. Risk factors for fatalities in civil air show crashes were analyzed. The value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes was evaluated. With the use of the FAA's General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and the National Transportation Safety Board's data, the incidence of civil air show crashes from 1993 to 2013 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes were analyzed by means of regression methods. The FIA index was validated to predict fatal outcomes by using the factors of fire, instrument conditions, and away-from-airport location, and was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The civil air show crash rate was 31 crashes per 1,000 civil air events. Of the 174 civil air show crashes that occurred during the study period, 91 (52%) involved at least one fatality; on average, 1.1 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with four major risk factors: fire [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.4 to 20.6, P < .001], pilot error (AOR = 5.2, 95% CI = 1.8 to 14.5, P = .002), aerobatic flight (AOR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.6 to 8.2, P = .002), and off-airport location (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.5, P = .003). The area under the FIA score's ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI = 0.64 to 0.78). Civil air show crashes were marked by a high risk of fatal outcomes to pilots in aerobatic performances but rare mass casualties. The FIA score was not a valid measurement of fatal risk in civil air show crashes.
-
Evaluating the Risk of Re-identification of Patients from Hospital Prescription Records.
Emam, Khaled El; Dankar, Fida K; Vaillancourt, Régis; Roffey, Tyson; Lysyk, Mary
2009-07-01
Pharmacies often provide prescription records to private research firms, on the assumption that these records are de-identified (i.e., identifying information has been removed). However, concerns have been expressed about the potential that patients can be re-identified from such records. Recently, a large private research firm requested prescription records from the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO), as part of a larger effort to develop a database of hospital prescription records across Canada. To evaluate the ability to re-identify patients from CHEO'S prescription records and to determine ways to appropriately de-identify the data if the risk was too high. The risk of re-identification was assessed for 18 months' worth of prescription data. De-identification algorithms were developed to reduce the risk to an acceptable level while maintaining the quality of the data. The probability of patients being re-identified from the original variables and data set requested by the private research firm was deemed quite high. A new de-identified record layout was developed, which had an acceptable level of re-identification risk. The new approach involved replacing the admission and discharge dates with the quarter and year of admission and the length of stay in days, reporting the patient's age in weeks, and including only the first character of the patient's postal code. Additional requirements were included in the data-sharing agreement with the private research firm (e.g., audit requirements and a protocol for notification of a breach of privacy). Without a formal analysis of the risk of re-identification, assurances of data anonymity may not be accurate. A formal risk analysis at one hospital produced a clinically relevant data set that also protects patient privacy and allows the hospital pharmacy to explicitly manage the risks of breach of patient privacy.
-
Evaluation of fetal anthropometric measures to predict the risk for shoulder dystocia.
Burkhardt, T; Schmidt, M; Kurmanavicius, J; Zimmermann, R; Schäffer, L
2014-01-01
To evaluate the quality of anthropometric measures to improve the prediction of shoulder dystocia by combining different sonographic biometric parameters. This was a retrospective cohort study of 12,794 vaginal deliveries with complete sonographic biometry data obtained within 7 days before delivery. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves of various combinations of the biometric parameters, namely, biparietal diameter (BPD), occipitofrontal diameter (OFD), head circumference, abdominal diameter (AD), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length were analyzed. The influences of independent risk factors were calculated and their combination used in a predictive model. The incidence of shoulder dystocia was 1.14%. Different combinations of sonographic parameters showed comparable ROC curves without advantage for a particular combination. The difference between AD and BPD (AD - BPD) (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.704) revealed a significant increase in risk (odds ratio (OR) 7.6 (95% CI 4.2-13.9), sensitivity 8.2%, specificity 98.8%) at a suggested cut-off ≥ 2.6 cm. However, the positive predictive value (PPV) was low (7.5%). The AC as a single parameter (AUC = 0.732) with a cut-off ≥ 35 cm performed worse (OR 4.6 (95% CI 3.3-6.5), PPV 2.6%). BPD/OFD (a surrogate for fetal cranial shape) was not significantly different between those with and those without shoulder dystocia. The combination of estimated fetal weight, maternal diabetes, gender and AD - BPD provided a reasonable estimate of the individual risk. Sonographic fetal anthropometric measures appear not to be a useful tool to screen for the risk of shoulder dystocia due to a low PPV. However, AD - BPD appears to be a relevant risk factor. While risk stratification including different known risk factors may aid in counseling, shoulder dystocia cannot effectively be predicted. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
-
Grouin, Cyril; Moriceau, Véronique; Zweigenbaum, Pierre
2015-12-01
The determination of risk factors and their temporal relations in natural language patient records is a complex task which has been addressed in the i2b2/UTHealth 2014 shared task. In this context, in most systems it was broadly decomposed into two sub-tasks implemented by two components: entity detection, and temporal relation determination. Task-level ("black box") evaluation is relevant for the final clinical application, whereas component-level evaluation ("glass box") is important for system development and progress monitoring. Unfortunately, because of the interaction between entity representation and temporal relation representation, glass box and black box evaluation cannot be managed straightforwardly at the same time in the setting of the i2b2/UTHealth 2014 task, making it difficult to assess reliably the relative performance and contribution of the individual components to the overall task. To identify obstacles and propose methods to cope with this difficulty, and illustrate them through experiments on the i2b2/UTHealth 2014 dataset. We outline several solutions to this problem and examine their requirements in terms of adequacy for component-level and task-level evaluation and of changes to the task framework. We select the solution which requires the least modifications to the i2b2 evaluation framework and illustrate it with our system. This system identifies risk factor mentions with a CRF system complemented by hand-designed patterns, identifies and normalizes temporal expressions through a tailored version of the Heideltime tool, and determines temporal relations of each risk factor with a One Rule classifier. Giving a fixed value to the temporal attribute in risk factor identification proved to be the simplest way to evaluate the risk factor detection component independently. This evaluation method enabled us to identify the risk factor detection component as most contributing to the false negatives and false positives of the global system. This
-
EVALUATION OF PHYSIOLOGY COMPUTER MODELS, AND THE FEASIBILITY OF THEIR USE IN RISK ASSESSMENT.
This project will evaluate the current state of quantitative models that simulate physiological processes, and the how these models might be used in conjunction with the current use of PBPK and BBDR models in risk assessment. The work will include a literature search to identify...
-
Park, Norman W; Conrod, Brian; Hussain, Zahra; Murphy, Kelly J; Rewilak, Dmytro; Black, Sandra E
2003-01-01
The current study evaluated the effectiveness of a rehabilitation program developed to assist individuals such as AM who have impaired social and risk judgement. AM's difficulties developed after a severe traumatic brain injury that resulted in bilateral frontal and temporal lobe damage including damage to the amygdala. Previous work (Park et al., 2001) established that AM had impaired automatic processing of negative, but not positive evaluative information, and relatively spared processing of both types of evaluative information when using controlled or strategic processing. In the Strategic Evaluation of Alternatives (SEA) treatment program, AM was trained to compensate for his impairments by explicitly retrieving positive and negative attributes associated with potential actions prior to performing them. The SEA treatment focused specifically on improving AM's ability to obtain financial compensation for his work-related activities. Results showed improved performance on work-related activities and evidence of generalization. Analyses suggested that the process underlying improved performance was compensatory rather than restorative in nature. We discuss the implications of these results for the development of rehabilitation treatment for patients with impaired social and risk judgement.
-
Evaluating the efficacy of regionalisation in limiting high-risk livestock trade movements.
Hidano, Arata; Carpenter, Tim E; Stevenson, Mark A; Gates, M Carolyn
2016-10-01
Many countries implement regionalisation as a measure to control economically important livestock diseases. Given that regionalisation highlights the difference in disease risk between animal subpopulations, this may discourage herd managers in low-risk areas from purchasing animals from high-risk areas to protect the disease-free status of their herds. Using bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in New Zealand as a case example, we develop a novel network simulation model to predict how much the frequency of cattle movements between different disease control areas (DCAs) could theoretically change if herd managers adopted the safest practices (preferentially purchasing cattle from areas with the lowest risk of bTB), if herd managers adopted the riskiest practices (preferentially purchasing cattle from areas with the greatest risk of bTB), or if herd managers made trade decisions completely at random (purchasing cattle without consideration for bTB disease risk). A modified configuration wiring algorithm was used in the network simulation model to preserve key temporal, spatial, and demographic attributes of cattle movement patterns. The simulated frequencies of cattle movements between DCAs in each of the three behavioural scenarios were compared with the actual frequency of cattle movements that occurred between 1st July 2010 and 30th June 2011. Our results showed that the observed frequency of cattle movements from high-risk areas into low-risk areas was significantly less than if trade decisions were made completely at random, but still significantly greater than if herd managers made the safest possible trade decisions. This suggests that while New Zealand cattle farmers may have adopted risk-averse trading behaviour in response to regionalisation, there are other underlying factors driving livestock trade, such as established supplier-buyer relationships and heterogeneous individual perceptions towards disease risk, which may reduce the potential efficacy of
-
Evaluation of the Risk Factors for a Rotator Cuff Retear After Repair Surgery.
Lee, Yeong Seok; Jeong, Jeung Yeol; Park, Chan-Deok; Kang, Seung Gyoon; Yoo, Jae Chul
2017-07-01
A retear is a significant clinical problem after rotator cuff repair. However, no study has evaluated the retear rate with regard to the extent of footprint coverage. To evaluate the preoperative and intraoperative factors for a retear after rotator cuff repair, and to confirm the relationship with the extent of footprint coverage. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Data were retrospectively collected from 693 patients who underwent arthroscopic rotator cuff repair between January 2006 and December 2014. All repairs were classified into 4 types of completeness of repair according to the amount of footprint coverage at the end of surgery. All patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) after a mean postoperative duration of 5.4 months. Preoperative demographic data, functional scores, range of motion, and global fatty degeneration on preoperative MRI and intraoperative variables including the tear size, completeness of rotator cuff repair, concomitant subscapularis repair, number of suture anchors used, repair technique (single-row or transosseous-equivalent double-row repair), and surgical duration were evaluated. Furthermore, the factors associated with failure using the single-row technique and transosseous-equivalent double-row technique were analyzed separately. The retear rate was 7.22%. Univariate analysis revealed that rotator cuff retears were affected by age; the presence of inflammatory arthritis; the completeness of rotator cuff repair; the initial tear size; the number of suture anchors; mean operative time; functional visual analog scale scores; Simple Shoulder Test findings; American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons scores; and fatty degeneration of the supraspinatus, infraspinatus, and subscapularis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed patient age, initial tear size, and fatty degeneration of the supraspinatus as independent risk factors for a rotator cuff retear. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the single-row group
-
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hill, Julie C.; Lynne-Landsman, Sarah D.; Graber, Julia A.; Johnson, Kelly J.
2016-01-01
Objective: Young people in urban areas are often the focus of pregnancy and sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention programmes because of their high risk of unwanted pregnancy and contracting an STI. Young people in rural areas are far less studied but also have a high risk of similar outcomes. This study evaluates Giving Our Girls…
-
Evaluating STORM skills training for managing people at risk of suicide.
Gask, Linda; Dixon, Clare; Morriss, Richard; Appleby, Louis; Green, Gillian
2006-06-01
This paper reports a study evaluating the Skills Training On Risk Management (STORM) training initiative in three mental health services in the North-West of England, UK. Training for health workers has been widely advocated as a key route to suicide prevention. However, reports of evaluations are scarce in the literature. In previous research, we have demonstrated that the STORM intervention results in acquisition of new skills and can be disseminated in a community setting. The training was delivered during a 6-month period in 2002 by three mental health nurses who were seconded part-time to the project. The quantitative evaluation, which assessed change in attitudes, confidence, acquisition of skills and satisfaction, used a pretest/post-test design, with participants acting as their own controls. Qualitative interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 16 participants to explore the impact on clinical practice, and with the three trainers at the end of the study. Data from 458 staff members were collected during a 6-month period. Positive changes in attitudes and confidence were shown, but previous evidence of skill acquisition was not replicated. Qualitative interviews revealed important insights into changes in clinical practice, particularly for less experienced or unqualified nursing staff, but also concerns about the lack of an educational culture to foster and support such interventions in practice within the organizations. STORM training for the assessment and management of suicide risk is both feasible and acceptable in mental health trusts. However, we remain uncertain of its longer-term impact, given the lack of engagement of senior staff in the enterprise and the absence of linked supervision and support from the organizational management to reinforce skill acquisition and development. We consider that regular supervision that links STORM training to actual clinical experience would be the ideal.
-
Yamaguchi, Natsu; Mahbub, M H; Takahashi, Hidekazu; Hase, Ryosuke; Ishimaru, Yasutaka; Sunagawa, Hiroshi; Amano, Hiroki; Kobayashi-Miura, Mikiko; Kanda, Hideyuki; Fujita, Yasuyuki; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Mai; Kikuchi, Shinya; Ikeda, Atsuko; Takasu, Mariko; Kageyama, Naoko; Nakamura, Mina; Tanabe, Tsuyoshi
2017-04-07
Recently, the association of plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile and lifestyle-related diseases has been reported. However, few studies have been reported in large Asian populations, about the usefulness of PFAAs for evaluating disease risks. We examined the ability of PFAA profiles to evaluate lifestyle-related diseases in so far the largest Asian population. We examined plasma concentrations of 19 amino acids in 8589 Japanese subjects, and determined the association with variables associated with obesity, blood glucose, lipid, and blood pressure. We also evaluated the PFAA indexes that reflect visceral fat obesity and insulin resistance. The contribution of single PFAA level and relevant PFAA indexes was also examined in the risk assessment of lifestyle-related diseases. Of the 19 amino acids, branched-chain amino acids and aromatic amino acids showed association with obesity and lipid variables. The PFAA index related to visceral fat obesity showed relatively higher correlation with variables than that of any PFAA. In the evaluation of lifestyle-related disease risks, the odds ratios of the PFAA index related to visceral fat obesity or insulin resistance with the diseases were higher than most of those of individual amino acid levels even after adjusting for potential confounding factors. The association pattern of the indexes and PFAA with each lifestyle-related disease was distinct. We confirmed the usefulness of PFAA profiles and indexes as markers for evaluating the risks of lifestyle-related diseases, including diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome, dyslipidemia, and hypertension in a large Asian population.
-
Evaluation of Two Approaches to Defining Extinction Risk under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.
Thompson, Grant G; Maguire, Lynn A; Regan, Tracey J
2018-05-01
The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrasted for a small set of real-world species with published extinction time distributions and a large set of hypothetical extinction time distributions. Potential issues with each approach are evaluated, and the EL approach is recommended as the better of the two. The CDF approach suffers from the fact that extinctions that occur at any time before the specified time horizon are weighted equally, while extinctions that occur beyond the specified time horizon receive no weight at all. It also suffers from the fact that the time horizon does not correspond to any natural phenomenon, and so is impossible to specify nonarbitrarily; yet the results can depend critically on the specified value. In contrast, the EL approach has the advantage of weighting extinction time continuously, with no artificial time horizon, and the parameters of the approach (the rates of time preference and risk aversion) do correspond to natural phenomena, and so can be specified nonarbitrarily. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
-
Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program (MEPREP).
Davis, Robert L
2010-01-01
Knowledge about safe medication use during pregnancy is limited, yet about two of every three women take at least one prescription medication during pregnancy, furthermore, there is a lack of rigorous studies evaluating birth outcomes associated with in utero exposure to medications. The Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program (MEPREP) is intended to provide a mechanism for collaborative pharmacoepidemiological research to address the safety of pharmaceutical product exposure during pregnancy, through the development of standardized data requirements and of the necessary data linkages of mother-infant pairs to conduct multi-site investigations. This presentation will describe the program, the types of data collected, and progress to date. The current MEPREP population includes female health plan members of 11 distinct health management entities within three research centres who have delivered an infant between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2007, along with the administrative and birth certificate data on over one million children linked to mothers. There is information on all the medications those mothers took, as well as most of the outcomes of the babies. One of the benefits of this dataset is the information that could be investigated, such as birth weight, fetal growth, congenital anomalies, perinatal conditions, etc., against various demographics of the women in the dataset. The population size within the dataset suggests that various parameters could be studied with at least a modest degree of power.
-
Yang, Hong; Huang, Yin; Gregori, Luisa; Asher, David M; Bui, Travis; Forshee, Richard A; Anderson, Steven A
2017-04-01
Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has been transmitted by blood transfusion (TTvCJD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends deferring blood donors who resided in or traveled to 30 European countries where they may have been exposed to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) through beef consumption. Those recommendations warrant re-evaluation, because new cases of BSE and vCJD have markedly abated. The FDA developed a risk-ranking model to calculate the geographic vCJD risk using country-specific case rates and person-years of exposure of US blood donors. We used the reported country vCJD case rates, when available, or imputed vCJD case rates from reported BSE and UK beef exports during the risk period. We estimated the risk reduction and donor loss should the deferral be restricted to a few high-risk countries. We also estimated additional risk reduction by leukocyte reduction (LR) of red blood cells (RBCs). The United Kingdom, Ireland, and France had the greatest vCJD risk, contributing approximately 95% of the total risk. The model estimated that deferring US donors who spent extended periods of time in these three countries, combined with currently voluntary LR (95% of RBC units), would reduce the vCJD risk by 89.3%, a reduction similar to that achieved under the current policy (89.8%). Limiting deferrals to exposure in these three countries would potentially allow donations from an additional 100,000 donors who are currently deferred. Our analysis suggests that a deferral option focusing on the three highest risk countries would achieve a level of blood safety similar to that achieved by the current policy. © 2016 AABB.
-
Guyll, Max; Spoth, Richard L; Chao, Wei; Wickrama, K A S; Russell, Daniel
2004-06-01
Four years of longitudinal data from 373 families participating in a randomized intervention-control clinical trial were used to examine whether intervention effects on adolescent alcohol and tobacco use trajectories were moderated by family risk, as defined by parental social emotional maladjustment. Consistent with earlier outcome evaluations based on analyses of covariance, analyses confirmed that both the Preparing for the Drug Free Years program and the Iowa Strengthening Families Program favorably influenced alcohol use index trajectories across the time frame of the study; only the latter program, however, evidenced positive effects on a tobacco use index. Concerning the primary research question, analyses provided no support for family risk moderation of any intervention effect. Findings indicate the feasibility of developing universal preventive interventions that offer comparable benefits to all families.
-
The evaluation of endodontic flare-ups and their relationship to various risk factors.
Onay, Emel Olga; Ungor, Mete; Yazici, A Canan
2015-11-14
To evaluate the incidence of flare-ups and identify the risk factors including age, gender, tooth type, number of root canals, initial diagnosis, the type of irrigation regimen, treatment modality and the number of visits, in patients who received root canal treatment from January 2002 to January 2008. Records of 1819 teeth belonging to 1410 patients treated by 1 endodontics specialist during 6-year period were kept. Patient, tooth, and treatment characteristics were evaluated and the relationships between these characteristics and flare-ups were studied. Statistical analysis was carried out by using Pearson Chi-square test, Fisher's Exact test, and Binary Logistic regression analyses. The incidence of flare-ups was 59 (3.2 %) out of 1819 teeth that received endodontic therapy. Pulpal necrosis without periapical pathosis was the most common indication for flare-up (6 %) (p < 0.01). Teeth undergoing multiple visits had a higher risk of developing flare-ups compared to those with single appointments (OR: 3.14, CI: 1.414-7.009, p < 0.01). There were also no statistically significant differences in the incidence of flare-ups regarding to age, gender, tooth type, number of root canals, treatment modality, and the irrigation solutions that used during the treatment. The incidence of flare-up is minimal when teeth are treated in one visit. Absence of a periapical lesion in necrotic teeth is a significant risk factor for flare-ups.
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Capaccioni, B.; Cinelli, G.; Mostacci, D.; Tositti, L.
2012-12-01
Volcanic rocks in the Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy) contain high concentrations of 238U, 232Th and 40K due to subduction-related metasomatic enrichment of incompatible elements in the mantle source coupled with magma differentiation within the upper crust. Due to their favorable mechanical properties they have been extensively used for construction since the Etruscan age. In the old buildings of the Bolsena village, one of the most populated ancient village in the area, the major source of indoor radioactivity is 222Rn, a radioactive noble gas descendant of 238U. Direct 222Rn indoor measurements have detected extremely high values in the old center due to the combined effect of building materials, radon fluxes from the volcanic basement and low air exchange rates. In these cases the evaluated risk of developing lung cancer within a 75 year lifetime reaches up to 40% for ever smokers. Simulations of "standard rooms" built with different tuffs and lavas collected from the Vulsini Volcanic District have also provided estimations of the effective doses and lifetime risk for radiogenic cancer. Other than by the method adopted for calculation, the total evaluated risk for each volcanic rock depends on different parameters, such as: radionuclide content, radon emanation power, occupancy factor and air exchange rate. Occupancy factor and air exchange rate appear as the only controlling parameters able to mitigate the indoor radiological risk.
-
Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P
2014-01-01
Purpose To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. Methods We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. Results The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was −1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (−0.18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (−1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or forgone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24892175
-
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Krysinska, Karolina; Martin, Graham
2009-01-01
Population attributable risk (PAR) estimates have been used in suicide research to evaluate the impact of psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors, including affective disorders, traumatic life events, and unemployment. A parallel concept of preventive fraction (PF), allowing for estimation of the impact of protective factors and effectiveness…
-
Zhang, Ruilian; Andam, Francis; Shi, Guoqing
2017-06-01
Along with the further implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative and the promotion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the construction of the CPEC will likely face challenges owing to differences between China and Pakistan in politics, economics, culture, religion, language, customs, environmental management systems, environmental protection laws, social management systems, and social management regulations. To address potential environmental and social risks associated with Chinese enterprises as they invest in the CPEC region, this paper examines previous studies addressing topics such as the environmental and social safeguards of international institutions and Pakistan's domestic environmental and social management requirements. We then systematically identify the environmental and social risk factors involved in CPEC construction, which cover risks regarding water, air, soil, noise, biodiversity, politics, economics, culture, technology, and individuals. By establishing and calculating these risks and using a multi-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, we found that noise and individual risks belong to a medium risk category, while others belong to a higher risk category. In view of these risks, the Chinese government must create a friendly and peaceful environment for Chinese enterprises to invest in the CPEC region, and Chinese enterprises must adopt a development strategy of strength and capacity building and establish enterprises capable of addressing environmental and social issues during the investment process. All stakeholders must understand that if no determined and diligent steps are taken, CPEC construction might be doomed for failure from the start.
-
Evaluation of eye injury risk from projectile shooting toys using the focus headform - biomed 2009.
Bisplinghoff, Jill A; Duma, Stefan M
2009-01-01
Half of eye injuries in the United States are caused by a blunt impact and more specifically, eye injuries effecting children often result from projectile shooting toys. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk of eye injuries of currently available projectile shooting toys. In order to assess the risk of each toy, a Facial and Ocular Countermeasure Safety (FOCUS) headform was used to measure the force applied to the eye during each hit for a total of 18 tests. The selected toys included a dart gun, a foam launcher, and a ball launcher. The force ranged from 4-93 N and was analyzed using the injury risk function for globe rupture for the FOCUS headform. Projectile characteristics were also examined using normalized energy to determine risk of corneal abrasion, hyphema, lens dislocation, retinal damage and globe rupture. It was found that the three toys tested produced peak loads corresponding with risk of globe rupture between 0% and 17.3%. The normalized energy results show no risk of hyphema, lens dislocation, retinal damage or globe rupture and a maximum risk of corneal abrasion of 5.9%. This study concludes that although there are many eye injuries caused by projectiles, the selected toys show a very low risk of eye injury.
-
Spradling, Kyle; Uribe, Brittany; Okhunov, Zhamshid; Hofmann, Martin; Del Junco, Michael; Hwang, Christina; Gruber, Caden; Youssef, Ramy F; Landman, Jaime
2015-09-01
To evaluate the ignition and burn risk associated with contemporary fiberoptic and distal sensor endoscopic technologies. We used new and used SCB Xenon 300 light sources to illuminate a 4.8 mm fiberoptic cable, 10 mm laparoscope, 5 mm laparoscope, rigid cystoscope, semirigid ureteroscope, flexible cystoscope, flexible fiberoptic ureteroscope, distal sensor cystoscope, and a distal sensor ureteroscope (Karl Storz, Inc., Tuttlingen, Germany). We measured peak temperatures at the distal end of each device. We then evaluated each device on a flat and folded surgical drape to establish ignition risk. Finally, we evaluated the effects of all devices on human cadaver skin covered by surgical drape. Peak temperatures recorded for each device ranged from 26.9°C (flexible fiberoptic ureteroscope) to 194.5°C (fiberoptic cable). Drape ignition was noted when the fiberoptic cable was placed against a fold of drape. Contact with the fiberoptic cable, 10 mm laparoscope, 5 mm laparoscope, and distal sensor cystoscope resulted in cadaver skin damage. Cadaver skin damage occurred despite little or no visible change to the surgical drape. Rigid and flexible fiberoptic cystoscopes and flexible fiberoptic ureteroscopes had no effect on surgical drapes or cadaver skin. Fiberoptic light cables and some endoscopic devices have the potential to cause thermal injury and drape ignition. Thermal injury may occur without visible damage to drapes. Surgeons should remain vigilant regarding the risks associated with these devices and take necessary safety precautions to prevent patient injury.
-
ABSTRACT
Proposed applications of increasingly sophisticated biologically-based computational models, such as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models, raise the issue of how to evaluate whether the models are adequate for proposed uses including safety or risk ... -
Gintant, Gary A
2008-08-01
The successful development of novel drugs requires the ability to detect (and avoid) compounds that may provoke Torsades-de-Pointes (TdeP) arrhythmia while endorsing those compounds with minimal torsadogenic risk. As TdeP is a rare arrhythmia not readily observed during clinical or post-marketing studies, numerous preclinical models are employed to assess delayed or altered ventricular repolarization (surrogate markers linked to enhanced proarrhythmic risk). This review evaluates the advantages and limitations of selected preclinical models (ranging from the simplest cellular hERG current assay to the more complex in vitro perfused ventricular wedge and Langendorff heart preparations and in vivo chronic atrio-ventricular (AV)-node block model). Specific attention is paid to the utility of concentration-response relationships and "risk signatures" derived from these studies, with the intention of moving beyond predicting clinical QT prolongation and towards prediction of TdeP risk. While the more complex proarrhythmia models may be suited to addressing questionable or conflicting proarrhythmic signals obtained with simpler preclinical assays, further benchmarking of proarrhythmia models is required for their use in the robust evaluation of safety margins. In the future, these models may be able to reduce unwarranted attrition of evolving compounds while becoming pivotal in the balanced integrated risk assessment of advancing compounds.
-
Weir, Scott M; Suski, Jamie G; Salice, Christopher J
2010-12-01
A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
The Risk-Taking and Self-Harm Inventory for Adolescents: Development and Psychometric Evaluation
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Vrouva, Ioanna; Fonagy, Peter; Fearon, Pasco R. M.; Roussow, Trudie
2010-01-01
In this study, we report on the development and psychometric evaluation of the Risk-Taking (RT) and Self-Harm (SH) Inventory for Adolescents (RTSHIA), a self-report measure designed to assess adolescent RT and SH in community and clinical settings. 651 young people from secondary schools in England ranging in age from 11.6 years to 18.7 years and…
-
Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J.
2018-01-01
The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human–tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. PMID:27330093
-
Drug interactions evaluation: An integrated part of risk assessment of therapeutics
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S.; Zhao, Ping
2010-03-01
Pharmacokinetic drug interactions can lead to serious adverse events or decreased drug efficacy. The evaluation of a new molecular entity's (NME's) drug-drug interaction potential is an integral part of risk assessment during drug development and regulatory review. Alteration of activities of enzymes or transporters involved in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, or excretion of a new molecular entity by concomitant drugs may alter drug exposure, which can impact response (safety or efficacy). The recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft drug interaction guidance ( (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm072101.pdf)) highlights the methodologies and criteria that may be used to guide drug interaction evaluation by industrymore » and regulatory agencies and to construct informative labeling for health practitioner and patients. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration established a 'Drug Development and Drug Interactions' website to provide up-to-date information regarding evaluation of drug interactions ( (http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DevelopmentResources/DrugInteractionsLabeling/ucm080499.htm)). This review summarizes key elements in the FDA drug interaction guidance and new scientific developments that can guide the evaluation of drug-drug interactions during the drug development process.« less
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David
2017-03-01
An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.
-
Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David
2017-03-01
An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.
-
Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.
1996-01-01
This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).
-
[Pressure ulcer prevention--evaluation of awarness in families of patients at risk].
Kwiczala-Szydłowska, Seweryna; Skalska, Anna; Grodzicki, Tomasz
2005-01-01
Widespread use of risk assessing scales and standards in health care of chronically ill patients resulted in improvement of pressure ulcer prevention and treatment in institutional care. However many bed-ridden patients depend on awareness and preparation of families and caregivers, who provide home care after discharge from the hospital. The aim of this study was to evaluate the knowledge of pressure ulcers prevention in families of patient at risk. During a 4 month period, 62 caregivers (78% family members and 22% non-related) filled out the questionnaire enquiring about the issue related to pressure ulcer prevention and treatment. Only 11% of questioned person knew what the pressure ulcer was, 42% of caregivers were not aware of possible pressure ulcer causes, and 54.8% were not able to mention any pressure ulcer risk factor. Most of caregivers did not know basic principles of prevention including devices useful in pressure ulcer prevention, did not know about pressure reducing mattresses nor dressings used in pressure ulcers treatment. Fifty three percent of questioned persons never received any information about pressure ulcer prevention, and only 23% received such information from nurses--which reflects low involvement of professional staff in education of families of patients at risk in principles of pressure ulcers prevention. Families and caregivers of bed-ridden patients have insufficient knowledge of pressure ulcer prevention. Contribution of medical staff in education of families of patients at risk in pressure ulcer prevention is minimal, indicating the need of preparation and implementation of an educational program for bed-ridden patients' caregivers.
-
Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for improved risk assessment for Down's syndrome.
Koivu, Aki; Korpimäki, Teemu; Kivelä, Petri; Pahikkala, Tapio; Sairanen, Mikko
2018-05-04
Prenatal screening generates a great amount of data that is used for predicting risk of various disorders. Prenatal risk assessment is based on multiple clinical variables and overall performance is defined by how well the risk algorithm is optimized for the population in question. This article evaluates machine learning algorithms to improve performance of first trimester screening of Down syndrome. Machine learning algorithms pose an adaptive alternative to develop better risk assessment models using the existing clinical variables. Two real-world data sets were used to experiment with multiple classification algorithms. Implemented models were tested with a third, real-world, data set and performance was compared to a predicate method, a commercial risk assessment software. Best performing deep neural network model gave an area under the curve of 0.96 and detection rate of 78% with 1% false positive rate with the test data. Support vector machine model gave area under the curve of 0.95 and detection rate of 61% with 1% false positive rate with the same test data. When compared with the predicate method, the best support vector machine model was slightly inferior, but an optimized deep neural network model was able to give higher detection rates with same false positive rate or similar detection rate but with markedly lower false positive rate. This finding could further improve the first trimester screening for Down syndrome, by using existing clinical variables and a large training data derived from a specific population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Pflugh, K.K.
1995-12-01
Communicating health risk information is a complicated task. Citizen reaction to such information is difficult to predict, which makes it hard to plan an appropriate response. Research indicates that the way citizens respond to risk information often depends on whether the risk is familiar or unfamiliar, whether it is seen as imposed on them, whether it is man made or natural, or whether they have control over the risk. Potentially controversial cases that deal with delivering risk information have a special need for a well planned communication effort. Natural resource issues with an impact on public health are no exception.more » In New Jersey, a proposal to release an experimental bioengineered oral rabies vaccine for raccoons to test the effectiveness of the vaccine in halting the spread of rabies into an as yet unaffected area met with widespread public support and approval due in large part to the use of a unique risk communication planning process. This paper will describe the risk communication planning process used to gain public support and approval for release of oral rabies raccoon vaccine while focusing on the evaluation component of the process. The seven step process includes setting goals, profiling the issue or information gathering, audience identification and assessment, message development, method selection, implementation of the strategy and evaluation and follow-up. The goal of the evaluation component was to determine the effectiveness of the public information campaign on citizen`s knowledge of the field trial nearly three years after the initial announcement. In addition, it sought to learn citizen interest in maintaining the rabies free barrier that was created by the field trial using funds from local taxes. This evaluation includes the results of a mailed survey to 280 citizens, local officials and professional organizations. Finally, this paper will discuss the implications for future outreach efforts dealing complicated technical
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
López, Laura; Guerrero-Higueras, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez, José Luis; Matía, Pedro; Ortiz de Galisteo, José Pablo; Rodríguez, Vicente; Lorente, José Manuel; Merino, Andrés; Hermida, Lucía; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-Manso, Oscar
2013-04-01
Evaluating the meteorological alert chain, or, how information is transmitted from the meteorological forecasters to the final users, passing through risk managers, is a useful tool that benefits all the links of the chain, especially the meteorology researchers and forecasters. In fact, the risk managers can help significantly to improve meteorological forecasts in different ways. Firstly, by pointing out the most appropriate type of meteorological format, and its characteristics when representing the meteorological information, consequently improving the interpretation of the already-existing forecasts. Secondly, by pointing out the specific predictive needs in their workplaces related to the type of significant meteorological parameters, temporal or spatial range necessary, meteorological products "custom-made" for each type of risk manager, etc. In order to carry out an evaluation of the alert chain in Castilla y León, we opted for the creation of a Panel of Experts made up of personnel specialized in risk management (Responsible for Protection Civil, Responsible for Alert Services and Hydrological Planning of Hydrographical Confederations, Responsible for highway maintenance, and management of fires, fundamentally). In creating this panel, a total of twenty online questions were evaluated, and the majority of the questions were multiple choice or open-ended. Some of the results show how the risk managers think that it would be interesting, or very interesting, to carry out environmental educational campaigns about the meteorological risks in Castilla y León. Another result is the elevated importance that the risk managers provide to the observation data in real-time (real-time of wind, lightning, relative humidity, combined indices of risk of avalanches, snowslides, index of fires due to convective activity, etc.) Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Junta de Castilla y León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2.
-
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov; White, Lori D.; Kim, Andrea S.
An evaluation of the toxicogenomic data set for dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and male reproductive developmental effects was performed as part of a larger case study to test an approach for incorporating genomic data in risk assessment. The DBP toxicogenomic data set is composed of nine in vivo studies from the published literature that exposed rats to DBP during gestation and evaluated gene expression changes in testes or Wolffian ducts of male fetuses. The exercise focused on qualitative evaluation, based on a lack of available dose–response data, of the DBP toxicogenomic data set to postulate modes and mechanisms of action formore » the male reproductive developmental outcomes, which occur in the lower dose range. A weight-of-evidence evaluation was performed on the eight DBP toxicogenomic studies of the rat testis at the gene and pathway levels. The results showed relatively strong evidence of DBP-induced downregulation of genes in the steroidogenesis pathway and lipid/sterol/cholesterol transport pathway as well as effects on immediate early gene/growth/differentiation, transcription, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor signaling and apoptosis pathways in the testis. Since two established modes of action (MOAs), reduced fetal testicular testosterone production and Insl3 gene expression, explain some but not all of the testis effects observed in rats after in utero DBP exposure, other MOAs are likely to be operative. A reanalysis of one DBP microarray study identified additional pathways within cell signaling, metabolism, hormone, disease, and cell adhesion biological processes. These putative new pathways may be associated with DBP effects on the testes that are currently unexplained. This case study on DBP identified data gaps and research needs for the use of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. Furthermore, this study demonstrated an approach for evaluating toxicogenomic data in human health risk assessment that could be applied to future chemicals
-
Hickey, Graeme L; Grant, Stuart W; Freemantle, Nick; Cunningham, David; Munsch, Christopher M; Livesey, Steven A; Roxburgh, James; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben
2014-09-01
To explore the relationship between in-hospital mortality following adult cardiac surgery and the time since primary clinical qualification for the responsible consultant cardiac surgeon (a proxy for experience). Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected national registry data over a 10-year period using mixed-effects multiple logistic regression modelling. Surgeon experience was defined as the time between the date of surgery and award of primary clinical qualification. UK National Health Service hospitals performing cardiac surgery between January 2003 and December 2012. All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts and/or valve surgery under the care of a consultant cardiac surgeon. All-cause in-hospital mortality. A total of 292,973 operations performed by 273 consultant surgeons (with lengths of service from 11.2 to 42.0 years) were included. Crude mortality increased approximately linearly until 33 years service, before decreasing. After adjusting for case-mix and year of surgery, there remained a statistically significant (p=0.002) association between length of service and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.013; 95% CI 1.005-1.021 for each year of 'experience'). Consultant cardiac surgeons take on increasingly complex surgery as they gain experience. With this progression, the incidence of adverse outcomes is expected to increase, as is demonstrated in this study. After adjusting for case-mix using the EuroSCORE, we observed an increased risk of mortality in patients operated on by longer serving surgeons. This finding may reflect under-adjustment for risk, unmeasured confounding or a real association. Further research into outcomes over the time course of surgeon's careers is required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.
-
Evaluation of hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction.
Nankaku, Manabu; Kanzaki, Hideto; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Nakamura, Takashi
2005-11-01
The purpose of this study is to evaluate hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction, and to elucidate factors that influence the impact force in falls on the hip. Eight healthy volunteers performed deliberate falls in three directions (lateral, posterolateral and posterior) on a force platform covered by a mattress of 13 cm thickness. Fall descent motions and impact postures were examined by a three-dimensional analyzer. The maximum ground force reaction, velocity of the greater trochanter at impact, and activity of quadriceps and gluteus medius were measured. In all trials of lateral and posterolateral falls, but not of posterior falls, the subjects hit their greater trochanter directly on the mattress. The impact forces were between 2,000 N and 4,000 N. Posterolateral falls showed significantly higher velocity at impact than did posterior falls. The height and the lower limb length exhibited positive correlations with the impact force in all directions of fall. In the lateral fall, there was a positive correlation between the activity of quadriceps and the impact force. In view of the impact point, force, and velocity, the posterolateral fall seemed to carry the highest risk of hip fracture.
-
Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guan, Xuefei; Zhang, Jingdan; Zhou, S. Kevin; Rasselkorde, El Mahjoub; Abbasi, Waheed A.
2014-02-01
The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.
-
Gadkar, Kapil; Lu, James; Sahasranaman, Srikumar; Davis, John; Mazer, Norman A; Ramanujan, Saroja
2016-01-01
The recent failures of cholesteryl ester transport protein inhibitor drugs to decrease CVD risk, despite raising HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, suggest that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C may not always reflect elevations in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), the process by which HDL is believed to exert its beneficial effects. HDL-modulating therapies can affect HDL properties beyond total HDL-C, including particle numbers, size, and composition, and may contribute differently to RCT and CVD risk. The lack of validated easily measurable pharmacodynamic markers to link drug effects to RCT, and ultimately to CVD risk, complicates target and compound selection and evaluation. In this work, we use a systems pharmacology model to contextualize the roles of different HDL targets in cholesterol metabolism and provide quantitative links between HDL-related measurements and the associated changes in RCT rate to support target and compound evaluation in drug development. By quantifying the amount of cholesterol removed from the periphery over the short-term, our simulations show the potential for infused HDL to treat acute CVD. For the primary prevention of CVD, our analysis suggests that the induction of ApoA-I synthesis may be a more viable approach, due to the long-term increase in RCT rate. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.
-
LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wolfe, Justin E.
The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.
-
Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl (Compiler); Guo, Ten-Huei
2014-01-01
The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.
-
Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei
2015-01-01
The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.
-
Campbell, William; Ganna, Andrea; Ingelsson, Erik; Janssens, A Cecile J W
2016-01-01
We propose a new measure of assessing the performance of risk models, the area under the prediction impact curve (auPIC), which quantifies the performance of risk models in terms of their average health impact in the population. Using simulated data, we explain how the prediction impact curve (PIC) estimates the percentage of events prevented when a risk model is used to assign high-risk individuals to an intervention. We apply the PIC to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study to illustrate its application toward prevention of coronary heart disease. We estimated that if the ARIC cohort received statins at baseline, 5% of events would be prevented when the risk model was evaluated at a cutoff threshold of 20% predicted risk compared to 1% when individuals were assigned to the intervention without the use of a model. By calculating the auPIC, we estimated that an average of 15% of events would be prevented when considering performance across the entire interval. We conclude that the PIC is a clinically meaningful measure for quantifying the expected health impact of risk models that supplements existing measures of model performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
EPA's Policy on Evaluating Risk to Children
It is the policy of EPA to consider the risks to infants and children consistently and explicitly as a part of risk assessments generated during its decision making process, including the setting of standards to protect public health and the environment.
-
Christian, Susan; Atallah, Joseph; Clegg, Robin; Giuffre, Michael; Huculak, Cathleen; Dzwiniel, Tara; Parboosingh, Jillian; Taylor, Sherryl; Somerville, Martin
2018-02-01
Predictive genetic testing in minors should be considered when clinical intervention is available. Children who carry a pathogenic variant for an inherited arrhythmia or cardiomyopathy require regular cardiac screening and may be prescribed medication and/or be told to modify their physical activity. Medical genetics and pediatric cardiology charts were reviewed to identify factors associated with uptake of genetic testing and cardiac evaluation for children at risk for long QT syndrome, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy or arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. The data collected included genetic diagnosis, clinical symptoms in the carrier parent, number of children under 18 years of age, age of children, family history of sudden cardiac arrest/death, uptake of cardiac evaluation and if evaluated, phenotype for each child. We identified 97 at risk children from 58 families found to carry a pathogenic variant for one of these conditions. Sixty six percent of the families pursued genetic testing and 73% underwent cardiac screening when it was recommended. Declining predictive genetic testing was significantly associated with genetic specialist recommendation (p < 0.001) and having an asymptomatic carrier father (p = 0.006). Cardiac evaluation was significantly associated with uptake of genetic testing (p = 0.007). This study provides a greater understanding of factors associated with uptake of genetic testing and cardiac evaluation in children at risk of an inherited arrhythmia or cardiomyopathy. It also identifies a need to educate families about the importance of cardiac evaluation even in the absence of genetic testing.
-
Yu, Esther Yee Tak; Wan, Eric Yuk Fai; Chan, Karina Hiu Yen; Wong, Carlos King Ho; Kwok, Ruby Lai Ping; Fong, Daniel Yee Tak; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen
2015-06-19
There is some evidence to support a risk-stratified, multi-disciplinary approach to manage patients with hypertension in primary care. The aim of this study is to evaluate the quality of care (QOC) of a multi-disciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Programme for Hypertension (RAMP-HT) for hypertensive patients in busy government-funded primary care clinics in Hong Kong. The objectives are to develop an evidence-based, structured and comprehensive evaluation framework on quality of care, to enhance the QOC of the RAMP-HT through an audit spiral of two evaluation cycles and to determine the effectiveness of the programme in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A longitudinal study is conducted using the Action Learning and Audit Spiral methodologies to measure whether pre-set target standards of care intended by the RAMP-HT are achieved. A structured evaluation framework on the quality of structure, process and outcomes of care has been developed based on the programme objectives and literature review in collaboration with the programme workgroup and health service providers. Each participating clinic is invited to complete a structure of care evaluation questionnaire in each evaluation cycle. The data of all patients who have enrolled into the RAMP-HT in the pre-defined evaluation periods are used for the evaluation of the process and outcomes of care in each evaluation cycle. For evaluation of the effectiveness of RAMP-HT, the primary outcomes including blood pressure (both systolic and diastolic), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and estimated 10-year CVD risk of RAMP-HT participants are compared to those of hypertensive patients in usual care without RAMP-HT. The QOC and effectiveness of the RAMP-HT in improving clinical and patient-reported outcomes for patients with hypertension in normal primary care will be determined. Possible areas for quality enhancement and standards of good practice will be established to inform service planning and policy
-
Van Dongen, A J C M; Kremer, J A M; Van Sluisveld, N; Verhaak, C M; Nelen, W L D M
2012-12-01
Is patient screening for emotional risk factors before starting IVF treatment feasible? Introduction of screening for emotional risk factors by a validated instrument (SCREENIVF) in couples treated by IVF or ICSI is feasible, indicated by a moderate to high and stable uptake rate, a high acceptance of the process of SCREENIVF, and a high acceptability of the presented risk profile by the patients. SCREENIVF is a validated screening tool to identify women at risk for emotional maladjustment preceding the start of their IVF/ICSI treatment. This was a prospective cohort study, including data of two cohorts of patients (304 and 342 patients), with a duration of 3 months per cohort. For the first cohort, we sent a process evaluation to 210 patients and it was completed by 91 patients. All 304 patients (male and female) who started IVF/ICSI between 1 December 2009 and 28 February 2010 in our tertiary IVF clinic were eligible. The uptake rate of SCREENIVF was assessed as the response rate to the screening questionnaire. One year later, we re-assessed the uptake rate in 342 new patients to assess the stability of the uptake rate. A non-responder assessment in patients who did not complete SCREENIVF was carried out. Finally, patients' characteristics and their experiences with SCREENIVF as well as their consequent actions were assessed by an additional process evaluation questionnaire sent some months later to 210 patients. The uptake rate of SCREENIVF was 78-80%. One-third of the responders were found to be at risk for emotional maladjustment, which was comparable with previous studies using SCREENIVF. Of 27 non-responders to SCREENIVF, 41% explained non-response by 'no actual need for psychological help' and 19% forgot to complete the screening. The response rate to the process evaluation was 43% (n = 91). Of these, 90% found the screening was useful, and almost all patients were positive about the SCREENIVF questionnaire. Furthermore, 93% recognized themselves in the
-
Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd
2017-04-01
In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.
-
Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.
Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud
2017-11-06
The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.
-
Case study on risk evaluation of printed electronics using nanosilver ink.
Kim, Ellen; Lee, Ji Hyun; Kim, Jin Kwon; Lee, Gun Ho; Ahn, Kangho; Park, Jung Duck; Yu, Il Je
2016-01-01
With the ever-increasing development of nanotechnology, our society is being surrounded by possible risks related to exposure to manufactured nanomaterials. The consumer market already includes many products that contain silver nanoparticles (AgNPs), including various household products, such as yoga mats, cutting boards, running shirts, and socks. There is a growing concern over the release of AgNPs in workplaces related to the manufacture and application of nanomaterials. This study investigated the release of AgNPs during the operation of a printed electronics printer. Using an exposure simulation chamber, a nanoparticle collector, scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), condensation particle counter (CPC), dust monitor, and mixed cellulose ester (MCE) filters are all connected to measure the AgNP exposure levels when operating a printed electronics printer. A very small amount of AgNPs was released during the operation of the printed electronics printer, and the number of AgNPs inside the exposure simulation chamber was lower than that outside background. In addition, when evaluating the potential risks for consumers and workers using a margin of exposure (MOE) approach and target MOE of 1000, the operational results far exceeded the target MOE in this simulation study and in a previous workplace exposure study. The overall results indicate a no-risk concern level in the case of printed electronics using nanosilver ink.
-
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2012-07-17
... Evaluation and Research (CBER) and suggestions for further development. The public workshop will include... Evaluation and Research (HFM-210), Food and Drug Administration, 1401 Rockville Pike, suite 200N, Rockville... models to generate quantitative estimates of the benefits and risks of influenza vaccination. The public...
-
Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S
2018-06-01
Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death
-
White, Paul A; Johnson, George E
2016-05-01
Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the
-
Evaluation of the risk of noise-induced hearing loss among unscreened male industrial workers.
Prince, Mary M; Gilbert, Stephen J; Smith, Randall J; Stayner, Leslie T
2003-02-01
Variability in background risk and distribution of various risk factors for hearing loss may explain some of the diversity in excess risk of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). This paper examines the impact of various risk factors on excess risk estimates of NIHL using data from the 1968-1972 NIOSH Occupational Noise and Hearing Survey (ONHS). Previous analyses of a subset of these data focused on 1172 highly "screened" workers. In the current analysis, an additional 894 white males (609 noise-exposed and 285 controls), who were excluded for various reasons (i.e., nonoccupational noise exposure, otologic or medical conditions affecting hearing, prior occupational noise exposure) have been added 2066) to assess excess risk of noise-induced material impairment in an unscreened population. Data are analyzed by age, duration of exposure, and sound level (8-h TWA) for four different definitions of noise-induced hearing impairment, defined as the binaural pure-tone average (PTA) hearing threshold level greater than 25 dB for the following frequencies: (a) 1-4 kHz (PTA1234), (b) 1-3 kHz (PTA123), (c) 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz (PTA512), and (d) 3, 4, and 6 kHz (PTA346). Results indicate that populations with higher background risks of hearing loss may show lower excess risks attributable to noise relative to highly screened populations. Estimates of lifetime excess risk of hearing impairment were found to be significantly different between screened and unscreened population for noise levels greater than 90 dBA. Predicted age-related risk of material hearing impairment in the ONHS unscreened population was similar to that predicted from Annex B and C of ANSI S3.44 for ages less than 60 years. Results underscore the importance of understanding differential risk patterns for hearing loss and the use of appropriate reference (control) populations when evaluating risk of noise-induced hearing impairment among contemporary industrial populations.
-
Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.
1992-01-01
This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.
-
Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph
2010-01-01
not. The model used for describing the Failure Likelihood considers how well a task was established by evaluating that task on five components. The components selected to define a well established task are: that it be defined, assigned to someone capable, that they be trained appropriately, that the actions be organized to enable proper completion and that some form of independent monitoring be performed. Validation of the method was based on the information provided by a group of experts in Space Shuttle ground processing when they were presented with 5 scenarios that identified a clause from a procedure. For each scenario, they recorded their perception of how important the associated rule was and how likely it was to fail. They then rated the components of Control Value and Failure Likelihood for all the scenarios. The order in which each reviewer ranked the scenarios Control Value and Failure Likelihood was compared to the order in which they ranked the scenarios for each of the associated components; inevitability and opportunity for Control Value and definition, assignment, training, organization and monitoring for Failure Likelihood. This order comparison showed how the components contributed to a relative relationship to the substitute risk element. With the relationship established for Space Shuttle ground processing, this method can be used to gauge if the introduction or removal of a particular rule will increase or decrease the .risk associated with the hazard it is intended to control.
-
Evaluating the Cost, Safety, and Proliferation Risks of Small Floating Nuclear Reactors.
Ford, Michael J; Abdulla, Ahmed; Morgan, M Granger
2017-11-01
It is hard to see how our energy system can be decarbonized if the world abandons nuclear power, but equally hard to introduce the technology in nonnuclear energy states. This is especially true in countries with limited technical, institutional, and regulatory capabilities, where safety and proliferation concerns are acute. Given the need to achieve serious emissions mitigation by mid-century, and the multidecadal effort required to develop robust nuclear governance institutions, we must look to other models that might facilitate nuclear plant deployment while mitigating the technology's risks. One such deployment paradigm is the build-own-operate-return model. Because returning small land-based reactors containing spent fuel is infeasible, we evaluate the cost, safety, and proliferation risks of a system in which small modular reactors are manufactured in a factory, and then deployed to a customer nation on a floating platform. This floating small modular reactor would be owned and operated by a single entity and returned unopened to the developed state for refueling. We developed a decision model that allows for a comparison of floating and land-based alternatives considering key International Atomic Energy Agency plant-siting criteria. Abandoning onsite refueling is beneficial, and floating reactors built in a central facility can potentially reduce the risk of cost overruns and the consequences of accidents. However, if the floating platform must be built to military-grade specifications, then the cost would be much higher than a land-based system. The analysis tool presented is flexible, and can assist planners in determining the scope of risks and uncertainty associated with different deployment options. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
-
Evaluation of incidence and risk factors for high-dose methotrexate-induced nephrotoxicity.
Wiczer, Tracy; Dotson, Emily; Tuten, Amy; Phillips, Gary; Maddocks, Kami
2016-06-01
High-dose methotrexate (doses ≥1 g/m(2)) is a key component of several chemotherapy regimens used to treat patients with leukemia or lymphoma. Despite appropriate precautions with hydration, urine alkalinization, and leucovorin, nephrotoxicity remains a risk which can lead to significant morbidity and mortality. Current reports of risk factors for nephrotoxicity focus on patients with nephrotoxicity with a lack of comparison to those without toxicity. This study aimed to describe the incidence of high-dose methotrexate-induced nephrotoxicity at our institution and determined risk factors for high-dose methotrexate-induced nephrotoxicity by examining characteristics of patients with and without nephrotoxicity. This was a retrospective, single-center, chart review. Adult patients with a diagnosis of leukemia or lymphoma who received high-dose methotrexate were included. Serum creatinine values were used to evaluate nephrotoxicity according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events criteria v4.03. Data related to the following proposed risk factors were collected: age, sex, body mass index, methotrexate dose, number of high-dose methotrexate exposures, leucovorin administration route, baseline renal function, albumin, hydration status, Clostridium difficile infection, urine pH, and concomitant interacting and nephrotoxic medications. The primary endpoint was evaluated with exact binomial methods and risk factors were identified using multivariable random-effects logistic regression. Final analyses included 140 patients with 432 high-dose methotrexate exposures. There were no differences in baseline demographical characteristics. Fifty-four patients (38.6%) experienced nephrotoxicity of any grade: 27.9% with grade 1, 5.7% with grade 2, 3.6% grade 3, 0% with grade 4, and 1.4% with grade 5 toxicity. More patients in the toxicity group received doses of methotrexate ≥3 g/m(2) (58.3% versus 57.2%, p < 0.001), had an albumin level <3 g/dL (31.9% versus
-
Cumulative Aggregate Risk Evaluation Software
CARES is a state-of-the-art software program designed to conduct complex exposure and risk assessments for pesticides, such as the assessments required under the 1996 Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA). CARES was originally developed under the auspices of CropLife America (CLA),...
-
Gadkar, Kapil; Lu, James; Sahasranaman, Srikumar; Davis, John; Mazer, Norman A.; Ramanujan, Saroja
2016-01-01
The recent failures of cholesteryl ester transport protein inhibitor drugs to decrease CVD risk, despite raising HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, suggest that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C may not always reflect elevations in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), the process by which HDL is believed to exert its beneficial effects. HDL-modulating therapies can affect HDL properties beyond total HDL-C, including particle numbers, size, and composition, and may contribute differently to RCT and CVD risk. The lack of validated easily measurable pharmacodynamic markers to link drug effects to RCT, and ultimately to CVD risk, complicates target and compound selection and evaluation. In this work, we use a systems pharmacology model to contextualize the roles of different HDL targets in cholesterol metabolism and provide quantitative links between HDL-related measurements and the associated changes in RCT rate to support target and compound evaluation in drug development. By quantifying the amount of cholesterol removed from the periphery over the short-term, our simulations show the potential for infused HDL to treat acute CVD. For the primary prevention of CVD, our analysis suggests that the induction of ApoA-I synthesis may be a more viable approach, due to the long-term increase in RCT rate. PMID:26522778
-
Ioriatti, Claudio; Agnello, Arthur M; Martini, Fabrizio; Kovach, Joseph
2011-10-01
Various pesticide risk indicators have been developed for estimating pesticide impact on human health and the environment. The present work applied a pesticide risk indicator to estimate change in pesticide risk in apple production between 2001 and 2009. The "Environmental Impact Quotient" was used, which evaluates potential impacts of pesticide active ingredients on farm workers, consumers, and nontarget organisms. A modified Environmental Impact Quotient was also tested, which accounts for all ingredients in the formulation presenting a health or environmental hazard, as identified in the Security Data Sheet. Irrespective of the rating system applied, an overall average improvement in environmental impact of apple protection strategies was indicated ranging from 23 to 24%. Hazard reduction was more significant when estimated per treatment, and was higher for acaricides and insecticides than for fungicides. Improvement appeared to be a consequence of using more selective and more effective active ingredients, applying alternative pest control techniques, compulsory periodic sprayer calibration, and wider use of dwarfing orchards. The modified Environmental Impact Quotient does not overcome all limitations regarding accuracy of pesticide risk indicators, but its ease of use in relying on official, easily accessible data, and the consistency of its results, makes it a good candidate for monitoring the success of reduced risk policies. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.
-
Evaluation of the impacts of traffic states on crash risks on freeways.
Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Li, Zhibin
2012-07-01
The primary objective of this study is to divide freeway traffic flow into different states, and to evaluate the safety performance associated with each state. Using traffic flow data and crash data collected from a northbound segment of the I-880 freeway in the state of California, United States, K-means clustering analysis was conducted to classify traffic flow into five different states. Conditional logistic regression models using case-controlled data were then developed to study the relationship between crash risks and traffic states. Traffic flow characteristics in each traffic state were compared to identify the underlying phenomena that made certain traffic states more hazardous than others. Crash risk models were also developed for different traffic states to identify how traffic flow characteristics such as speed and speed variance affected crash risks in different traffic states. The findings of this study demonstrate that the operations of freeway traffic can be divided into different states using traffic occupancy measured from nearby loop detector stations, and each traffic state can be assigned with a certain safety level. The impacts of traffic flow parameters on crash risks are different across different traffic flow states. A method based on discriminant analysis was further developed to identify traffic states given real-time freeway traffic flow data. Validation results showed that the method was of reasonably high accuracy for identifying freeway traffic states. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Wright, Curtis; Schnoll, Sidney; Bernstein, David
2008-10-01
Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) formerly known as Risk Minimization Action Plans (RiskMAPs) are a regulatory technique for dealing with anticipated risks of new medications and are especially important for new drugs with abuse potential. This paper describes the origin and history of risk-management plans for drugs that might be abused, the proper use of these plans in minimizing the risk to the public, and the special difficulties inherent in managing risks for drugs with abuse potential. Drugs with abuse liability are distinctive since the risks inherent in manufacture and distribution include not only risks to patients prescribed the medications, but also risks to the general public including subgroups in the population not intended to get the drug and who receive no medical benefit from the medication. The crafting of risk-management plans intended to protect nonpatient populations is unique for these products. The content, extent, and level of intensity of these plans affect areas of medical ethics, civil liability, and criminal prosecution. The need for risk-management plans for drugs with abuse liability can potentially act as a deterrent to investment and is a factor in decisions concerning the development of new medications for the treatments of pain, ADHD, anxiety disorders, and addictions. This paper provides a framework for moving the process of REMS development forward and criteria for evaluating the probity and adequacy of such programs.
-
Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Plattner, Th.; Plapp, T.; Hebel, B.
2006-06-01
An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not why it differs. The
-
Viazzi, Francesca; Leoncini, Giovanna; Parodi, Denise; Ratto, Elena; Vettoretti, Simone; Vaccaro, Valentina; Parodi, Angelica; Falqui, Valeria; Tomolillo, Cinzia; Deferrari, Giacomo; Pontremoli, Roberto
2005-03-01
Accurate assessment of cardiovascular risk is a key step toward optimizing the treatment of hypertensive patients. We analyzed the impact and cost-effectiveness of routine, thorough assessment of target organ damage (TOD) in evaluating risk profile in hypertension. A total of 380 never-treated patients with essential hypertension underwent routine work-up plus evaluation of albuminuria and ultrasonography of cardiac and vascular structures. The impact of these tests on risk stratification, as indicated by European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology guidelines, was assessed in light of their cost and sensitivity. The combined use of all of these tests greatly improved the detection of TOD, therefore leading to the identification of a higher percentage of patients who were at high/very high risk, as compared with those who were detected by routine clinical work-up (73% instead of 42%; P < 0.0001). Different signs of TOD only partly cluster within the same subgroup of patients; thus, all three tests should be performed to maximize the sensitivity of the evaluation process. The diagnostic algorithm yielding the lowest cost per detected case of TOD is the search for microalbuminuria, followed by echocardiography and then carotid ultrasonography. Adopting lower cut-off values to define microalbuminuria allows us to optimize further the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic algorithms. In conclusion, because of its low cost and widespread availability, measuring albuminuria is an attractive and cost-effective screening test that is especially suitable as the first step in the large-scale diagnostic work-up of hypertensive patients.
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong
2014-06-01
Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural
-
Evaluation of Sensor Technology to Detect Fall Risk and Prevent Falls in Acute Care.
Potter, Patricia; Allen, Kelly; Costantinou, Eileen; Klinkenberg, William Dean; Malen, Jill; Norris, Traci; O'Connor, Elizabeth; Roney, Wilhemina; Tymkew, Heidi Hahn; Wolf, Laurie
2017-08-01
Sensor technology that dynamically identifies hospitalized patients' fall risk and detects and alerts nurses of high-risk patients' early exits out of bed has potential for reducing fall rates and preventing patient harm. During Phase 1 (August 2014-January 2015) of a previously reported performance improvement project, an innovative depth sensor was evaluated on two inpatient medical units to study fall characteristics. In Phase 2 (April 2015-January 2016), a combined depth and bed sensor system designed to assign patient fall probability, detect patient bed exits, and subsequently prevent falls was evaluated. Fall detection depth sensors remained in place on two medicine units; bed sensors used to detect patient bed exits were added on only one of the medicine units. Fall rates and fall with injury rates were evaluated on both units. During Phase 2, the designated evaluation unit had 14 falls, for a fall rate of 2.22 per 1,000 patient-days-a 54.1% reduction compared with the Phase 1 fall rate. The difference in rates from Phase 1 to Phase 2 was statistically significant (z = 2.20; p = 0.0297). The comparison medicine unit had 30 falls-a fall rate of 4.69 per 1,000 patient-days, representing a 57.9% increase as compared with Phase 1. A fall detection sensor system affords a level of surveillance that standard fall alert systems do not have. Fall prevention remains a complex issue, but sensor technology is a viable fall prevention option. Copyright © 2017 The Joint Commission. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Nyeland, Martin Erik; Laursen, Mona Vestergaard; Callréus, Torbjörn
2017-06-01
For both marketing authorization holders and regulatory authorities, evaluating the effectiveness of risk minimization measures is now an integral part of pharmacovigilance in the European Union. The overall aim of activities in this area is to assess the performance of risk minimization measures implemented in order to ensure a positive benefit-risk balance in patients treated with a medicinal product. Following a review of the relevant literature, we developed a conceptual framework consisting of four domains (data, knowledge, behaviour and outcomes) intended for the evaluation of risk minimization measures put into practice in the Danish health-care system. For the implementation of the framework, four classes of monitoring variables can be named and defined: patient descriptors, performance-related indicators of knowledge, behaviour and outcomes. We reviewed the features of the framework when applied to historical, real-world data following the introduction of dabigatran in Denmark for the prophylactic treatment of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. The application of the framework provided useful graphical displays and an opportunity for a statistical evaluation (interrupted time series analysis) of a regulatory intervention. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
-
Ethnic background and genetic variation in the evaluation of cancer risk: a systematic review.
Jing, Lijun; Su, Li; Ring, Brian Z
2014-01-01
The clinical use of genetic variation in the evaluation of cancer risk is expanding, and thus understanding how determinants of cancer susceptibility identified in one population can be applied to another is of growing importance. However there is considerable debate on the relevance of ethnic background in clinical genetics, reflecting both the significance and complexity of genetic heritage. We address this via a systematic review of reported associations with cancer risk for 82 markers in 68 studies across six different cancer types, comparing association results between ethnic groups and examining linkage disequilibrium between risk alleles and nearby genetic loci. We find that the relevance of ethnic background depends on the question. If asked whether the association of variants with disease risk is conserved across ethnic boundaries, we find that the answer is yes, the majority of markers show insignificant variability in association with cancer risk across ethnic groups. However if the question is whether a significant association between a variant and cancer risk is likely to reproduce, the answer is no, most markers do not validate in an ethnic group other than the discovery cohort's ancestry. This lack of reproducibility is not attributable to studies being inadequately populated due to low allele frequency in other ethnic groups. Instead, differences in local genomic structure between ethnic groups are associated with the strength of association with cancer risk and therefore confound interpretation of the implied physiologic association tracked by the disease allele. This suggest that a biological association for cancer risk alleles may be broadly consistent across ethnic boundaries, but reproduction of a clinical study in another ethnic group is uncommon, in part due to confounding genomic architecture. As clinical studies are increasingly performed globally this has important implications for how cancer risk stratifiers should be studied and employed.
-
Ethnic Background and Genetic Variation in the Evaluation of Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review
Jing, Lijun; Su, Li; Ring, Brian Z.
2014-01-01
The clinical use of genetic variation in the evaluation of cancer risk is expanding, and thus understanding how determinants of cancer susceptibility identified in one population can be applied to another is of growing importance. However there is considerable debate on the relevance of ethnic background in clinical genetics, reflecting both the significance and complexity of genetic heritage. We address this via a systematic review of reported associations with cancer risk for 82 markers in 68 studies across six different cancer types, comparing association results between ethnic groups and examining linkage disequilibrium between risk alleles and nearby genetic loci. We find that the relevance of ethnic background depends on the question. If asked whether the association of variants with disease risk is conserved across ethnic boundaries, we find that the answer is yes, the majority of markers show insignificant variability in association with cancer risk across ethnic groups. However if the question is whether a significant association between a variant and cancer risk is likely to reproduce, the answer is no, most markers do not validate in an ethnic group other than the discovery cohort’s ancestry. This lack of reproducibility is not attributable to studies being inadequately populated due to low allele frequency in other ethnic groups. Instead, differences in local genomic structure between ethnic groups are associated with the strength of association with cancer risk and therefore confound interpretation of the implied physiologic association tracked by the disease allele. This suggest that a biological association for cancer risk alleles may be broadly consistent across ethnic boundaries, but reproduction of a clinical study in another ethnic group is uncommon, in part due to confounding genomic architecture. As clinical studies are increasingly performed globally this has important implications for how cancer risk stratifiers should be studied and
-
Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei
2007-01-01
We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.
-
Evaluation of the Clinical Performance of the HPV-Risk Assay Using the VALGENT-3 Panel.
Polman, N J; Oštrbenk, A; Xu, L; Snijders, P J F; Meijer, C J L M; Poljak, M; Heideman, D A M; Arbyn, M
2017-12-01
Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is increasingly being incorporated into cervical cancer screening. The Validation of HPV Genotyping Tests (VALGENT) is a framework designed to evaluate the clinical performance of various HPV tests relative to that of the validated and accepted comparator test in a formalized and uniform manner. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical performance of the HPV-Risk assay with samples from the VALGENT-3 panel and to compare its performance to that of the clinically validated Hybrid Capture 2 assay (HC2). The VALGENT-3 panel comprises 1,300 consecutive samples from women participating in routine cervical cancer screening and is enriched with 300 samples from women with abnormal cytology. DNA was extracted from original ThinPrep PreservCyt medium aliquots, and HPV testing was performed using the HPV-Risk assay by investigators blind to the clinical data. HPV prevalence was analyzed, and the clinical performance of the HPV-Risk assay for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) and CIN2 or worse (CIN2+) relative to the performance of HC2 was assessed. The sensitivity of the HPV-Risk assay for the detection of CIN3+ was similar to that of HC2 (relative sensitivity, 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95 to 1.05; P = 1.000), but the specificity of the HPV-Risk assay was significantly higher than that of HC2 (relative specificity, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.04; P < 0.001). For the detection of CIN2+, similar results were obtained, with the relative sensitivity being 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93 to 1.02; P = 0.257) and the relative specificity being 1.02 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.03; P < 0.001). The performance of the HPV-Risk assay for the detection of CIN3+ and CIN2+ was noninferior to that of HC2, with all P values being ≤0.006. In conclusion, the HPV-Risk assay demonstrated noninferiority to the clinically validated HC2 by the use of samples from the VALGENT-3 panel for test validation and comparison
-
Murrelle, Lenn; Coggins, Christopher R E; Gennings, Chris; Carchman, Richard A; Carter, Walter H; Davies, Bruce D; Krauss, Marc R; Lee, Peter N; Schleef, Raymond R; Zedler, Barbara K; Heidbreder, Christian
2010-06-01
The risk-reducing effect of a potential reduced-risk tobacco product (PRRP) can be investigated conceptually in a long-term, prospective study of disease risks among cigarette smokers who switch to a PRRP and in appropriate comparison groups. Our objective was to provide guidance for establishing the fundamental design characteristics of a study intended to (1) determine if switching to a PRRP reduces the risk of lung cancer (LC) compared with continued cigarette smoking, and (2) compare, using a non-inferiority approach, the reduction in LC risk among smokers who switched to a PRRP to the reduction in risk among smokers who quit smoking entirely. Using standard statistical methods applied to published data on LC incidence after smoking cessation, we show that the sample size and duration required for a study designed to evaluate the potential for LC risk reduction for an already marketed PRRP, compared with continued smoking, varies depending on the LC risk-reducing effectiveness of the PRRP, from a 5-year study with 8000-30,000 subjects to a 15-year study with <5000 to 10,000 subjects. To assess non-inferiority to quitting, the required sample size tends to be about 10 times greater, again depending on the effectiveness of the PRRP. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret
An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale frommore » nondiscernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy’s sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy’s sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.« less
-
Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J
2016-06-21
The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human-tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016
-
Evaluation of risk factor reduction in a European City Network.
Farrington, Jill L; Faskunger, Johan; Mackiewicz, Karolina
2015-06-01
There is a substantial and growing burden of premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases (NCDs) globally. This paper evaluates the preventive efforts of the WHO European Healthy Cities Network during its fifth phase (2009-13), specifically for four behavioural risk factors (tobacco use, alcohol abuse, unhealthy diet and physical inactivity). Drawing on case studies, questionnaire responses and other materials, it notes which cities were involved, what worked and did not, the triggers for action, challenges met and lessons learnt. Few cities appeared to have taken comprehensive approaches to NCD prevention across multiple risk factors, or have combined population- and individual-level interventions. Work on healthy food and diet predominantly focused on children in educational or care settings, and few cities appeared to take a comprehensive approach to tackling obesity. Partnerships were a strong feature for all the NCD risk factor work, and were frequently extensive, being most diverse for the Healthy Diet and Food work. There were strong examples of engagement with communities, also involved in co-designing and shaping projects. Equity also featured strongly and there were multiple examples of how attention had been paid to the social determinants of health. There was evidence that cities continue to be significant innovative forces within their countries and drivers of change, and the mutual dependency of the national and local levels was highlighted. Interventions to promote physical activity have shifted focus from specific events and projects to being more integrated with other policy areas and based on intersectoral collaboration. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
-
Evaluation of a risk-based environmental hot spot delineation algorithm.
Sinha, Parikhit; Lambert, Michael B; Schew, William A
2007-10-22
Following remedial investigations of hazardous waste sites, remedial strategies may be developed that target the removal of "hot spots," localized areas of elevated contamination. For a given exposure area, a hot spot may be defined as a sub-area that causes risks for the whole exposure area to be unacceptable. The converse of this statement may also apply: when a hot spot is removed from within an exposure area, risks for the exposure area may drop below unacceptable thresholds. The latter is the motivation for a risk-based approach to hot spot delineation, which was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Random samples taken from a virtual site ("true site") were used to create an interpolated site. The latter was gridded and concentrations from the center of each grid box were used to calculate 95% upper confidence limits on the mean site contaminant concentration and corresponding hazard quotients for a potential receptor. Grid cells with the highest concentrations were removed and hazard quotients were recalculated until the site hazard quotient dropped below the threshold of 1. The grid cells removed in this way define the spatial extent of the hot spot. For each of the 100,000 Monte Carlo iterations, the delineated hot spot was compared to the hot spot in the "true site." On average, the algorithm was able to delineate hot spots that were collocated with and equal to or greater in size than the "true hot spot." When delineated hot spots were mapped onto the "true site," setting contaminant concentrations in the mapped area to zero, the hazard quotients for these "remediated true sites" were on average within 5% of the acceptable threshold of 1.
-
Peter, Inga; Mitchell, Adele A; Ozelius, Laurie; Erazo, Monica; Hu, Jianzhong; Doheny, Dana; Abreu, Maria T; Present, Daniel H; Ullman, Thomas; Benkov, Keith; Korelitz, Burton I; Mayer, Lloyd; Desnick, Robert J
2011-05-06
Crohn's disease (CD) has the highest prevalence among individuals of Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) descent compared to non-Jewish Caucasian populations (NJ). We evaluated a set of well-established CD-susceptibility variants to determine if they can explain the increased CD risk in the AJ population. We recruited 369 AJ CD patients and 503 AJ controls, genotyped 22 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at or near 10 CD-associated genes, NOD2, IL23R, IRGM, ATG16L1, PTGER4, NKX2-3, IL12B, PTPN2, TNFSF15 and STAT3, and assessed their association with CD status. We generated genetic scores based on the risk allele count alone and the risk allele count weighed by the effect size, and evaluated their predictive value. Three NOD2 SNPs, two IL23R SNPs, and one SNP each at IRGM and PTGER4 were independently associated with CD risk. Carriage of 7 or more copies of these risk alleles or the weighted genetic risk score of 7 or greater correctly classified 92% (allelic count score) and 83% (weighted score) of the controls; however, only 29% and 47% of the cases were identified as having the disease, respectively. This cutoff was associated with a >4-fold increased disease risk (p < 10e-16). CD-associated genetic risks were similar to those reported in NJ population and are unlikely to explain the excess prevalence of the disease in AJ individuals. These results support the existence of novel, yet unidentified, genetic variants unique to this population. Understanding of ethnic and racial differences in disease susceptibility may help unravel the pathogenesis of CD leading to new personalized diagnostic and therapeutic approaches.
-
Chapman, R L; Buckley, L; Sheehan, M; Shochet, I M
2013-08-01
School connectedness is an important protective factor for adolescent risk-taking behaviour. This study examined a pilot version of the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) programme, combining teacher professional development (PD) for increasing school connectedness (connectedness component) with a risk and injury prevention curriculum for early adolescents (curriculum component). A process evaluation was conducted on the connectedness component, involving assessments of programme reach, participant receptiveness and initial use, and a preliminary impact evaluation was conducted on the combined connectedness and curriculum programme. The connectedness component was well received by teacher participants, who saw benefits for both themselves and their students. Classroom observation also showed that teachers who received PD made use of the programme strategies. Grade 8 students who participated in the SPIY programme were less likely to report violent behaviour at 6-month follow-up than were control students, and trends also suggested reduced transport injuries. The results of this research support the use of the combined SPIY connectedness and curriculum components in a large-scale effectiveness trial to assess the impact of the programme on students' connectedness, risk-taking and associated injuries.
-
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Orchowski, Lindsay M.; Gidycz, Christine A.; Raffle, Holly
2008-01-01
The current study extends the development and evaluation of an existing and previously evaluated sexual assault risk reduction program with a self-defense component for college women (N = 300). The program protocol was revised to address psychological barriers to responding assertively to risky dating situations, and a placebo-control group was…
-
How social context moderates the self-evaluative emotions experienced due to health risk behaviour.
Grob, Judith D M; Dijkstra, Arie; de Groot, Carla
2011-10-01
When people are confronted with the potential negative physical outcomes of their own health risk behaviour, they experience a self-threat. This threat is felt as negative self-evaluative emotions. We hypothesise that the threat will lead to more private self-evaluative emotions (e.g. regret) in a private social context, whereas more public self-evaluative emotions (e.g. embarrassment) will be felt in a public social context with negative norms. Consistent with our hypotheses, we show that participants anticipate feeling more private self-evaluative emotions when confronted with the negative consequences of their unhealthy behaviour when alone, and more public self-evaluative emotions when in a group (Study 1). They further anticipate more public self-evaluative emotions in response to a health self-threat when the group norm is negative, and more private self-evaluative emotions when the group norm is lenient (Study 2). Finally, in a cross-sectional study amongst smokers, we show that private but not public negative self-evaluative emotions concerning their own smoking habits are positively correlated with the intent to quit smoking (Study 3). These studies show that a distinction needs to be made between public and private self-evaluative emotions, in terms of their antecedents and effects. Theoretical implications and further lines of research are discussed.
-
Cohen, Mark E; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Zhou, Lynn; Huffman, Kristopher; Wang, Xue; Liu, Yaoming; Kraemer, Kari; Meng, Xiangju; Merkow, Ryan; Chow, Warren; Matel, Brian; Richards, Karen; Hart, Amy J; Dimick, Justin B; Hall, Bruce L
2013-08-01
The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) collects detailed clinical data from participating hospitals using standardized data definitions, analyzes these data, and provides participating hospitals with reports that permit risk-adjusted comparisons with a surgical quality standard. Since its inception, the ACS NSQIP has worked to refine surgical outcomes measurements and enhance statistical methods to improve the reliability and validity of this hospital profiling. From an original focus on controlling for between-hospital differences in patient risk factors with logistic regression, ACS NSQIP has added a variable to better adjust for the complexity and risk profile of surgical procedures (procedure mix adjustment) and stabilized estimates derived from small samples by using a hierarchical model with shrinkage adjustment. New models have been developed focusing on specific surgical procedures (eg, "Procedure Targeted" models), which provide opportunities to incorporate indication and other procedure-specific variables and outcomes to improve risk adjustment. In addition, comparative benchmark reports given to participating hospitals have been expanded considerably to allow more detailed evaluations of performance. Finally, procedures have been developed to estimate surgical risk for individual patients. This article describes the development of, and justification for, these new statistical methods and reporting strategies in ACS NSQIP. Copyright © 2013 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Lee, D H; Mehta, M D
2003-06-01
Effective risk communication in transfusion medicine is important for health-care consumers, but understanding the numerical magnitude of risks can be difficult. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of a visual risk communication tool on the knowledge and perception of transfusion risk. Laypeople were randomly assigned to receive transfusion risk information with either a written or a visual presentation format for communicating and comparing the probabilities of transfusion risks relative to other hazards. Knowledge of transfusion risk was ascertained with a multiple-choice quiz and risk perception was ascertained by psychometric scaling and principal components analysis. Two-hundred subjects were recruited and randomly assigned. Risk communication with both written and visual presentation formats increased knowledge of transfusion risk and decreased the perceived dread and severity of transfusion risk. Neither format changed the perceived knowledge and control of transfusion risk, nor the perceived benefit of transfusion. No differences in knowledge or risk perception outcomes were detected between the groups randomly assigned to written or visual presentation formats. Risk communication that incorporates risk comparisons in either written or visual presentation formats can improve knowledge and reduce the perception of transfusion risk in laypeople.
-
Eliciting change in at-risk elders (ECARE): evaluation of an elder abuse intervention program.
Mariam, Lydia Morris; McClure, Regina; Robinson, J B; Yang, Janet A
2015-01-01
The current study evaluated the effectiveness of a community-based elder abuse intervention program that assists suspected victims of elder abuse and self-neglect through a partnership with local law enforcement. This program, Eliciting Change in At-Risk Elders, involves building alliances with the elder and family members, connecting the elder to supportive services that reduce risk of further abuse, and utilizing motivational interviewing-type skills to help elders overcome ambivalence regarding making difficult life changes. Risk factors of elder abuse decreased over the course of the intervention and nearly three-quarters of participants made progress on their treatment goal, advancing at least one of Prochaska and DiClemente's (1983) stages of change (precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, and maintenance). Forty-three percent of elders moved into the stages of action and maintenance regarding their goal. The usefulness of eliciting change via longer-term relationships with vulnerable elders in entrenched elder abuse situations is discussed.
-
Evaluation of the health risks to garment workers in the city of Xambrê-PR, Brazil.
Sant'Ana, Marco Antônio; Kovalechen, Fabrício
2012-01-01
This study evaluated the risks for cardiovascular disease and the life habits of garment industry workers in northwestern Paraná state, Brazil. The following parameters were assessed: body composition, cardiorespiratory fitness, eating habits and physical activities by garment industry workers. Cardiovascular risk was observed in some of the studied subjects, in the form of high BMI and reduced maximal oxygen uptake. The development of a workplace quality-of-life program is suggested, aiming to stimulate the development of physical activities to improve the cardiovascular conditioning of workers.
-
Risk evaluation of available phosphorus loss in agricultural land based on remote sensing and GIS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ding, Xiaodong; Zhou, Bin; Xu, Junfeng; Liu, Ting; Xie, Bin
2010-09-01
The surplus of phosphorus leads to water eutrophication. Huge input of fertilizers in agricultural activities enriches nutrition in soil. The superfluous nutrient moves easily to riparian water by rainfall and surface runoff; leads to water eutrophication of riparian wetlands and downstream water; and consequently affects ecological balance. Thus it is significant to investigate the risk of phosphorus loss in agricultural land, to identify high concentration areas and guide the management of nutrition loss. This study was implemented mainly in the area of agricultural use in southern Western Australia, where a three-year period preliminary monitoring of water quality showed that the concentration of different forms of phosphorus in water had far exceeded the standard. Due to the large scale surface runoff caused by occasional storms in Western Australia, soil erosion was selected as the main driving factor for the loss of phosphorus. Remote sensing and ground truth data were used to reflect the seasonal changes of plants. The spatial distribution of available phosphorus was then predicted and combined with the evaluation matrix to evaluate the loss risk of phosphorus. This evaluation was based on quantitative rather than qualitative data to make better precision. It could help making decision support for monitoring water quality of rivers and riparian wetlands.
-
Gallagher, Daniel; Ebel, Eric D; Gallagher, Owen; Labarre, David; Williams, Michael S; Golden, Neal J; Pouillot, Régis; Dearfield, Kerry L; Kause, Janell
2013-04-01
This report illustrates how the uncertainty about food safety metrics may influence the selection of a performance objective (PO). To accomplish this goal, we developed a model concerning Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) deli meats. This application used a second order Monte Carlo model that simulates L. monocytogenes concentrations through a series of steps: the food-processing establishment, transport, retail, the consumer's home and consumption. The model accounted for growth inhibitor use, retail cross contamination, and applied an FAO/WHO dose response model for evaluating the probability of illness. An appropriate level of protection (ALOP) risk metric was selected as the average risk of illness per serving across all consumed servings-per-annum and the model was used to solve for the corresponding performance objective (PO) risk metric as the maximum allowable L. monocytogenes concentration (cfu/g) at the processing establishment where regulatory monitoring would occur. Given uncertainty about model inputs, an uncertainty distribution of the PO was estimated. Additionally, we considered how RTE deli meats contaminated at levels above the PO would be handled by the industry using three alternative approaches. Points on the PO distribution represent the probability that - if the industry complies with a particular PO - the resulting risk-per-serving is less than or equal to the target ALOP. For example, assuming (1) a target ALOP of -6.41 log10 risk of illness per serving, (2) industry concentrations above the PO that are re-distributed throughout the remaining concentration distribution and (3) no dose response uncertainty, establishment PO's of -4.98 and -4.39 log10 cfu/g would be required for 90% and 75% confidence that the target ALOP is met, respectively. The PO concentrations from this example scenario are more stringent than the current typical monitoring level of an absence in 25 g (i.e., -1.40 log10 cfu/g) or a stricter criteria of absence
-
Kraemer, Kari; Cohen, Mark E; Liu, Yaoming; Barnhart, Douglas C; Rangel, Shawn J; Saito, Jacqueline M; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Ko, Clifford Y; Hall, Bruce L
2016-11-01
There is an increased desire among patients and families to be involved in the surgical decision-making process. A surgeon's ability to provide patients and families with patient-specific estimates of postoperative complications is critical for shared decision making and informed consent. Surgeons can also use patient-specific risk estimates to decide whether or not to operate and what options to offer patients. Our objective was to develop and evaluate a publicly available risk estimation tool that would cover many common pediatric surgical procedures across all specialties. American College of Surgeons NSQIP Pediatric standardized data from 67 hospitals were used to develop a risk estimation tool. Surgeons enter 18 preoperative variables (demographics, comorbidities, procedure) that are used in a logistic regression model to predict 9 postoperative outcomes. A surgeon adjustment score is also incorporated to adjust for any additional risk not accounted for in the 18 risk factors. A pediatric surgical risk calculator was developed based on 181,353 cases covering 382 CPT codes across all specialties. It had excellent discrimination for mortality (c-statistic = 0.98), morbidity (c-statistic = 0.81), and 7 additional complications (c-statistic > 0.77). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic and graphic representations also showed excellent calibration. The ACS NSQIP Pediatric Surgical Risk Calculator was developed using standardized and audited multi-institutional data from the ACS NSQIP Pediatric, and it provides empirically derived, patient-specific postoperative risks. It can be used as a tool in the shared decision-making process by providing clinicians, families, and patients with useful information for many of the most common operations performed on pediatric patients in the US. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles
2011-01-01
This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program's…
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Hui; Mendel, Kayla R.; Lee, John H.; Lan, Li; Giger, Maryellen L.
2018-02-01
We evaluated the potential of deep learning in the assessment of breast cancer risk using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) fine-tuned on full-field digital mammographic (FFDM) images. This study included 456 clinical FFDM cases from two high-risk datasets: BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers (53 cases) and unilateral cancer patients (75 cases), and a low-risk dataset as the control group (328 cases). All FFDM images (12-bit quantization and 100 micron pixel) were acquired with a GE Senographe 2000D system and were retrospectively collected under an IRB-approved, HIPAA-compliant protocol. Regions of interest of 256x256 pixels were selected from the central breast region behind the nipple in the craniocaudal projection. VGG19 pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset was used to classify the images either as high-risk or as low-risk subjects. The last fully-connected layer of pre-trained VGG19 was fine-tuned on FFDM images for breast cancer risk assessment. Performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in the task of distinguishing between high-risk and low-risk subjects. AUC values of 0.84 (SE=0.05) and 0.72 (SE=0.06) were obtained in the task of distinguishing between the BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers and low-risk women and between unilateral cancer patients and low-risk women, respectively. Deep learning with CNNs appears to be able to extract parenchymal characteristics directly from FFDMs which are relevant to the task of distinguishing between cancer risk populations, and therefore has potential to aid clinicians in assessing mammographic parenchymal patterns for cancer risk assessment.
-
Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles
2011-06-01
This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program's results show that an increased focus on mobile outreach using rapid testing, incentives and health information technology tools may improve program acceptability, quality, productivity and timeliness of reports. This article describes program design decisions based on continuous quality assessment efforts. It also examines the impact of the Computer Assessment and Risk Reduction Education computer tool on HIV testing rates, staff perception of counseling quality, program productivity, and on the timeliness of evaluation reports. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for programmatic responses to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's HIV testing recommendations.
-
Pouillot, Régis; Delignette-Muller, Marie Laure
2010-09-01
Quantitative risk assessment has emerged as a valuable tool to enhance the scientific basis of regulatory decisions in the food safety domain. This article introduces the use of two new computing resources (R packages) specifically developed to help risk assessors in their projects. The first package, "fitdistrplus", gathers tools for choosing and fitting a parametric univariate distribution to a given dataset. The data may be continuous or discrete. Continuous data may be right-, left- or interval-censored as is frequently obtained with analytical methods, with the possibility of various censoring thresholds within the dataset. Bootstrap procedures then allow the assessor to evaluate and model the uncertainty around the parameters and to transfer this information into a quantitative risk assessment model. The second package, "mc2d", helps to build and study two dimensional (or second-order) Monte-Carlo simulations in which the estimation of variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is separated. This package easily allows the transfer of separated variability and uncertainty along a chain of conditional mathematical and probabilistic models. The usefulness of these packages is illustrated through a risk assessment of hemolytic and uremic syndrome in children linked to the presence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. These R packages are freely available at the Comprehensive R Archive Network (cran.r-project.org). Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R
2011-03-01
The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
-
Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben
2013-01-01
The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…
-
Sanchez, Mariana; Rojas, Patria; Li, Tan; Ravelo, Gira; Cyrus, Elena; Wang, Weize; Kanamori, Mariano; Peragallo, Nilda P; De La Rosa, Mario R
2016-09-01
Latina immigrants in the farmworker community are a vulnerable and understudied population at risk of acquiring HIV. Employing a CBPR framework, this pilot study was the first to evaluate the efficacy of SEPA, a CDC evidenced-based and culturally tailored HIV risk reduction intervention on a cohort of N = 110 predominantly undocumented Latina immigrants in a farmworker community. Findings revealed SEPA was effective in increasing HIV knowledge and decreasing HIV risk behaviors. However, no changes in self-efficacy were found in the present sample. We posit specific socio-cultural and structural barriers specific to the farmworker community not targeted in the original intervention may have hindered the program's capacity to influence changes in self-efficacy among this less acculturated population. Possible socio-cultural adaptations of the intervention to the target population and policy implications are discussed.
-
Yang, Fei; Xu, Zhencheng; Zhu, Yunqiang; He, Chansheng; Wu, Genyi; Qiu, Jin Rong; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Qingsong
2013-01-01
Agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution has been the most important threat to water environment quality. Understanding the spatial distribution of NPS pollution potential risk is important for taking effective measures to control and reduce NPS pollution. A Transformed-Agricultural Nonpoint Pollution Potential Index (T-APPI) model was constructed for evaluating the national NPS pollution potential risk in this study; it was also combined with remote sensing and geographic information system techniques for evaluation on the large scale and at 1 km2 spatial resolution. This model considers many factors contributing to the NPS pollution as the original APPI model, summarized as four indicators of the runoff, sediment production, chemical use and the people and animal load. These four indicators were analysed in detail at 1 km2 spatial resolution throughout China. The T-APPI model distinguished the four indicators into pollution source factors and transport process factors; it also took their relationship into consideration. The studied results showed that T-APPI is a credible and convenient method for NPS pollution potential risk evaluation. The results also indicated that the highest NPS pollution potential risk is distributed in the middle-southern Jiangsu province. Several other regions, including the North China Plain, Chengdu Basin Plain, Jianghan Plain, cultivated lands in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, also showed serious NPS pollution potential. This study can provide a scientific reference for predicting the future NPS pollution risk throughout China and may be helpful for taking reasonable and effective measures for preventing and controlling NPS pollution.
-
Pawar, Shivshakti D; Naik, Jayashri D; Prabhu, Priya; Jatti, Gajanan M; Jadhav, Sachin B; Radhe, B K
2017-01-01
India is currently becoming capital for diabetes mellitus. This significantly increasing incidence of diabetes putting an additional burden on health care in India. Unfortunately, half of diabetic individuals are unknown about their diabetic status. Hence, there is an emergent need of effective screening instrument to identify "diabetes risk" individuals. The aim is to evaluate and compare the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) and Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC). This is retrospective, record-based study of diabetes detection camp organized by a teaching hospital. Out of 780 people attended this camp voluntarily only 763 fulfilled inclusion criteria of the study. In this camp, pro forma included the World Health Organization STEP guidelines for surveillance of noncommunicable diseases. Included primary sociodemographic characters, physical measurements, and clinical examination. After that followed the random blood glucose estimation of each individual. Diagnostic accuracy of IDRS and FINDRISC compared by using receiver operative characteristic curve (ROC). Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, positive predictive and negative predictive values were compared. Clinical utility index (CUI) of each score also compared. SPSS version 22, Stata 13, R3.2.9 used. Out of 763 individuals, 38 were new diabetics. By IDRS 347 and by FINDRISC 96 people were included in high-risk category for diabetes. Odds ratio for high-risk people in FINDRISC for getting affected by diabetes was 10.70. Similarly, it was 4.79 for IDRS. Area under curves of ROCs of both scores were indifferent ( P = 0.98). Sensitivity and specificity of IDRS was 78.95% and 56.14%; whereas for FINDRISC it was 55.26% and 89.66%, respectively. CUI was excellent (0.86) for FINDRISC while IDRS it was "satisfactory" (0.54). Bland-Altman plot and Cohen's Kappa suggested fair agreement between these score in measuring diabetes risk. Diagnostic accuracy and
-
Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis
2016-04-01
The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk
-
Deloria-Knoll, Maria; Feikin, Daniel R.; DeLuca, Andrea N.; Driscoll, Amanda J.; Moïsi, Jennifer C.; Johnson, Hope L.; Murdoch, David R.; O’Brien, Katherine L.; Levine, Orin S.; Scott, J. Anthony G.
2012-01-01
As a case-control study of etiology, the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) project also provides an opportunity to assess the risk factors for severe pneumonia in hospitalized children at 7 sites. We identified relevant risk factors by literature review and iterative expert consultation. Decisions for inclusion in PERCH were based on comparability to published data, analytic plans, data collection costs and logistic feasibility, including interviewer time and subject fatigue. We aimed to standardize questions at all sites, but significant variation in the economic, cultural, and geographic characteristics of sites made it difficult to obtain this objective. Despite these challenges, the depth of the evaluation of multiple risk factors across the breadth of the PERCH sites should furnish new and valuable information about the major risk factors for childhood severe and very severe pneumonia, including risk factors for pneumonia caused by specific etiologies, in developing countries. PMID:22403226
-
Wonodi, Chizoba B; Deloria-Knoll, Maria; Feikin, Daniel R; DeLuca, Andrea N; Driscoll, Amanda J; Moïsi, Jennifer C; Johnson, Hope L; Murdoch, David R; O'Brien, Katherine L; Levine, Orin S; Scott, J Anthony G
2012-04-01
As a case-control study of etiology, the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) project also provides an opportunity to assess the risk factors for severe pneumonia in hospitalized children at 7 sites. We identified relevant risk factors by literature review and iterative expert consultation. Decisions for inclusion in PERCH were based on comparability to published data, analytic plans, data collection costs and logistic feasibility, including interviewer time and subject fatigue. We aimed to standardize questions at all sites, but significant variation in the economic, cultural, and geographic characteristics of sites made it difficult to obtain this objective. Despite these challenges, the depth of the evaluation of multiple risk factors across the breadth of the PERCH sites should furnish new and valuable information about the major risk factors for childhood severe and very severe pneumonia, including risk factors for pneumonia caused by specific etiologies, in developing countries.
-
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Formisano, Antonio; Ciccone, Giuseppe; Mele, Annalisa
2017-11-01
This paper investigates about the seismic vulnerability and risk of fifteen masonry churches located in the historical centre of Naples. The used analysis method is derived from a procedure already implemented by the University of Basilicata on the churches of Matera. In order to evaluate for the study area the seismic vulnerability and hazard indexes of selected churches, the use of appropriate technical survey forms is done. Data obtained from applying the employed procedure allow for both plotting of vulnerability maps and providing seismic risk indicators of all churches. The comparison among the indexes achieved allows for the evaluation of the health state of inspected churches so to program a priority scale in performing future retrofitting interventions.
-
2011-01-01
Background Crohn's disease (CD) has the highest prevalence among individuals of Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) descent compared to non-Jewish Caucasian populations (NJ). We evaluated a set of well-established CD-susceptibility variants to determine if they can explain the increased CD risk in the AJ population. Methods We recruited 369 AJ CD patients and 503 AJ controls, genotyped 22 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at or near 10 CD-associated genes, NOD2, IL23R, IRGM, ATG16L1, PTGER4, NKX2-3, IL12B, PTPN2, TNFSF15 and STAT3, and assessed their association with CD status. We generated genetic scores based on the risk allele count alone and the risk allele count weighed by the effect size, and evaluated their predictive value. Results Three NOD2 SNPs, two IL23R SNPs, and one SNP each at IRGM and PTGER4 were independently associated with CD risk. Carriage of 7 or more copies of these risk alleles or the weighted genetic risk score of 7 or greater correctly classified 92% (allelic count score) and 83% (weighted score) of the controls; however, only 29% and 47% of the cases were identified as having the disease, respectively. This cutoff was associated with a >4-fold increased disease risk (p < 10e-16). Conclusions CD-associated genetic risks were similar to those reported in NJ population and are unlikely to explain the excess prevalence of the disease in AJ individuals. These results support the existence of novel, yet unidentified, genetic variants unique to this population. Understanding of ethnic and racial differences in disease susceptibility may help unravel the pathogenesis of CD leading to new personalized diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. PMID:21548950
-
Nekhay, Olexandr; Arriaza, Manuel; Boerboom, Luc
2009-07-01
The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.
-
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McLeod, David Axlyn; Jones, Robin; Cramer, Elizabeth P.
2015-01-01
There are few evaluations of peer-facilitated teenage dating violence prevention programs in the literature. To begin to address this gap, this project assessed the effectiveness of a school-based, peer-facilitated healthy relationships program among academically at-risk students. Two hundred and ninety-one ninth graders of mixed race and gender…
-
Nagata, Chisato; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Tanaka, Keitaro; Tsuji, Ichiro; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Wakai, Kenji; Matsuo, Keitaro; Ito, Hidemi; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro
2012-02-01
We reviewed epidemiological studies on breastfeeding and breast cancer among Japanese women. This report is part of a series of articles written by our research group, whose aim was to evaluate the existing evidence concerning the association between health-related lifestyles and cancer. Original data were obtained from MEDLINE searches using PubMed or from searches of the Ichushi database, complemented by manual searches. Evaluation of associations was based on the strength of evidence and the magnitude of association, together with biological plausibility. Three cohort studies and five case-control studies were identified. Cohort studies failed to find a significant inverse association between breastfeeding and the risk of breast cancer. Most of the case-control studies observed a statistically significant or non-significant risk reduction for women who ever had breastfed or for women with a longer duration of breastfeeding. Experimental studies have supported the biological plausibility of a protective effect of breastfeeding on breast cancer risk. We conclude that breastfeeding possibly decreases the risk of breast cancer among Japanese women.
-
Vaccine safety evaluation: Practical aspects in assessing benefits and risks.
Di Pasquale, Alberta; Bonanni, Paolo; Garçon, Nathalie; Stanberry, Lawrence R; El-Hodhod, Mostafa; Tavares Da Silva, Fernanda
2016-12-20
Vaccines are different from most medicines in that they are administered to large and mostly healthy populations including infants and children, so there is a low tolerance for potential risks or side-effects. In addition, the long-term benefits of immunisation in reducing or eliminating infectious diseases may induce complacency due to the absence of cases. However, as demonstrated in recent measles outbreaks in Europe and United States, reappearance of the disease occurs as soon as vaccine coverage falls. Unfounded vaccine scares such as those associating the combined measles-mumps-rubella vaccine with autism, and whole-cell pertussis vaccines with encephalopathy, can also have massive impacts, resulting in reduced vaccine uptake and disease resurgence. The safety assessment of vaccines is exhaustive and continuous; beginning with non-clinical evaluation of their individual components in terms of purity, stability and sterility, continuing throughout the clinical development phase and entire duration of use of the vaccine; including post-approval. The breadth and depth of safety assessments conducted at multiple levels by a range of independent organizations increases confidence in the rigour with which any potential risks or side-effects are investigated and managed. Industry, regulatory agencies, academia, the medical community and the general public all play a role in monitoring vaccine safety. Within these stakeholder groups, the healthcare professional and vaccine provider have key roles in the prevention, identification, investigation and management of adverse events following immunisation (AEFI). Guidelines and algorithms aid in determining whether AEFI may have been caused by the vaccine, or whether it is coincidental to it. Healthcare providers are encouraged to rigorously investigate AEFIs and to report them via local reporting processes. The ultimate objective for all parties is to ensure vaccines have a favourable benefit-risk profile. Copyright
-
Harrison, D; Muskett, H; Harvey, S; Grieve, R; Shahin, J; Patel, K; Sadique, Z; Allen, E; Dybowski, R; Jit, M; Edgeworth, J; Kibbler, C; Barnes, R; Soni, N; Rowan, K
2013-02-01
There is increasing evidence that invasive fungal disease (IFD) is more likely to occur in non-neutropenic patients in critical care units. A number of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have evaluated antifungal prophylaxis in non-neutropenic, critically ill patients, demonstrating a reduction in the risk of proven IFD and suggesting a reduction in mortality. It is necessary to establish a method to identify and target antifungal prophylaxis at those patients at highest risk of IFD, who stand to benefit most from any antifungal prophylaxis strategy. To develop and validate risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive Candida infection, who would benefit from antifungal prophylaxis, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of targeting antifungal prophylaxis to high-risk patients based on these models. Systematic review, prospective data collection, statistical modelling, economic decision modelling and value of information analysis. Ninety-six UK adult general critical care units. Consecutive admissions to participating critical care units. None. Invasive fungal disease, defined as a blood culture or sample from a normally sterile site showing yeast/mould cells in a microbiological or histopathological report. For statistical and economic modelling, the primary outcome was invasive Candida infection, defined as IFD-positive for Candida species. Systematic review: Thirteen articles exploring risk factors, risk models or clinical decision rules for IFD in critically ill adult patients were identified. Risk factors reported to be significantly associated with IFD were included in the final data set for the prospective data collection. Data were collected on 60,778 admissions between July 2009 and March 2011. Overall, 383 patients (0.6%) were admitted with or developed IFD. The majority of IFD patients (94%) were positive for Candida species. The most common site of infection was blood (55%). The incidence of IFD
-
Pietri, Diana De; Dietrich, Patricia; Mayo, Patricia; Carcagno, Alejandro
2011-10-01
Develop a spatial model that includes environmental factors posing a health hazard, for application in the Matanza-Riachuelo River Basin (MRB) in Argentina. Multicriteria evaluation procedures were used with geographic information systems to obtain territorial zoning based on the degree of suitability for residence. Variables that characterize the habitability of housing and potential sources of basin pollution were geographically referenced. Health information was taken from the Risk Factor Survey (RFS) to measure the relative risk of living in unsuitable areas (exposed population) compared with suitable areas (unexposed population). Sixty percent of the MRB area is in suitable condition, a situation that affects 40% of residents. The rest of the population lives in unsuitable territory, and 6% live in the basin's most unsuitable conditions. Environmental conditions that are detrimental to health in the unsuitable areas became evident during the interviews through three of the pathologies considered: diarrheal diseases, respiratory diseases, and cancer. A regional analysis that provides valid information to support decisionmaking was obtained. Considering the basin as a unit of analysis allowed the use of a single protocol to undertake comprehensive measurement of the magnitude of risk and, thus, set priorities.
-
Mossman, Douglas
2013-01-01
The last two decades have witnessed major changes in the way that mental health professionals assess, describe, and think about persons' risk for future violence. Psychiatrists and psychologists have gone from believing that they could not predict violence to feeling certain they can assess violence risk with well-above-chance accuracy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis has played a central role in changing this view. This article reviews the key concepts underlying ROC methods, the meaning of the area under the ROC curve (AUC), the relationship between AUC and effect size d, and what these two indices tell us about evaluations of violence risk. The area under the ROC curve and d provide succinct but incomplete descriptions of discrimination capacity. These indices do not provide details about sensitivity-specificity trade-offs; they do not tell us how to balance false-positive and false-negative errors; and they do not determine whether a diagnostic system is accurate enough to make practically useful distinctions between violent and non-violent subject groups. Justifying choices or clinical practices requires a contextual investigation of outcomes, a process that takes us beyond simply knowing global indices of accuracy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
-
Evaluation of triclosan in Minnesota lakes and rivers: Part I - ecological risk assessment.
Lyndall, Jennifer; Barber, Timothy; Mahaney, Wendy; Bock, Michael; Capdevielle, Marie
2017-08-01
Triclosan, an antimicrobial compound found in consumer products, may be introduced into the aquatic environment via residual concentrations in municipal wastewater treatment effluent. We conducted an aquatic risk assessment that incorporated the available measured triclosan data from Minnesota lakes and rivers. Although only data reported from Minnesota were considered in the risk assessment, the developed toxicity benchmarks can be applied to other environments. The data were evaluated using a series of environmental fate models to ensure the data were internally consistent and to fill any data gaps. Triclosan was not detected in over 75% of the 567 surface water and sediment samples. Measured environmental data were used to model the predicted environmental exposures to triclosan in surface water, surface sediment, and biota tissues. Toxicity benchmarks based on fatty acid synthesis inhibition and narcosis were determined for aquatic organisms based, in part, on a species sensitivity distribution of chronic toxicity thresholds from the available literature. Predicted and measured environmental concentrations for surface water, sediment, and tissue were below the effects benchmarks, indicating that exposure to triclosan in Minnesota lakes and rivers would not pose an unacceptable risk to aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.
2015-11-01
Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.
-
Radawski, Christine; Morrato, Elaine; Hornbuckle, Kenneth; Bahri, Priya; Smith, Meredith; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Mol, Peter; Levitan, Bennett; Huang, Han-Yao; Coplan, Paul; Li, Hu
2015-12-01
Optimizing a therapeutic product's benefit-risk profile is an on-going process throughout the product's life cycle. Different, yet related, benefit-risk assessment strategies and frameworks are being developed by various regulatory agencies, industry groups, and stakeholders. This paper summarizes current best practices and discusses the role of the pharmacoepidemiologist in these activities, taking a life-cycle approach to integrated Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE). A review of the medical and regulatory literature was performed for the following steps involved in therapeutic benefit-risk optimization: benefit-risk evidence generation; data integration and analysis; decision making; regulatory and policy decision making; benefit-risk communication and risk minimization; and evaluation. Feedback from International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology members was solicited on the role of the pharmacoepidemiologist. The case example of natalizumab is provided to illustrate the cyclic nature of the benefit-risk optimization process. No single, globally adopted benefit-risk assessment process exists. The BRACE heuristic offers a way to clarify research needs and to promote best practices in a cyclic and integrated manner and highlight the critical importance of cross-disciplinary input. Its approach focuses on the integration of BRACE activities for risk minimization and optimization of the benefit-risk profile. The activities defined in the BRACE heuristic contribute to the optimization of the benefit-risk profile of therapeutic products in the clinical world at both the patient and population health level. With interdisciplinary collaboration, pharmacoepidemiologists are well suited for bringing in methodology expertise, relevant research, and public health perspectives into the BRACE process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
-
Risk factors of neurological complications in cardiac surgery.
Baranowska, Katarzyna; Juszczyk, Grzegorz; Dmitruk, Iwona; Knapp, Małgorzata; Tycińska, Agnieszka; Jakubów, Piotr; Adamczuk, Anna; Stankiewicz, Adrian; Hirnle, Tomasz
2012-01-01
with their 95% confidence intervals. P values of less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Among the 36 patients in Group 2, postoperative encephalopathy developed in 22 patients, transient ischaemic attacks in 7 patients, ischaemic stroke in 6 patients (associated with right hemisphere damage in 3 patients and with left hemisphere damage in 3 patients) and haemorrhagic stroke in 1 patient (right hemisphere). Early mortality was 5% with 2 (0.69%) patients dying in Group 1 and 14 (38.9%) in Group 2. Univariate analysis revealed that the preoperative risk factors of neurological complications were: age >68 years (with a cutoff value of 58.5 years), a history of stroke with paresis, atrial fibrillation (AF) and a euroSCORE of >6 (with a cutoff value of 4.5). The peri- and postoperative risk factors included: surgery type (complex coronary and valvular surgeries aortic valve surgeries), duration of CPB of >142 min, duration of aortic crossclamping of >88 min, mean perfusion pressure during CPB of <70 mm Hg, haemodilution manifested by a haematocrit (HCT) of <28%, perfusate supply, time to regaining consciousness of >14.5 h and duration of artificial ventilation of >30.5 h. Multivariate analysis revealed the following factors to increase the risk of neurological complications: long duration of ventilation, a history of stroke with paresis, AF, low HCT values and long duration of aortic cross-clamping. The Nagelkerke R2 coefficient of determination was 0.636, the sensitivity was 74.36%, the specificity was 97.545% and the accuracy was 94.74%. In patients undergoing heart surgery, the independent risk factors of neurological complications in the first 30 days include: long duration of ventilation, a history of stroke with paresis, AF, haemodilution manifested by an HCT of <28% and long duration of aortic cross-clamping. Neurological complications are associated with high postoperative mortality.
-
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hallgren, Mats A.; Kallmen, Hakan; Leifman, Hakan; Sjolund, Torbjorn; Andreasson, Sven
2009-01-01
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of the PRIME for Life risk reduction program in reducing alcohol consumption and improving knowledge and attitudes towards alcohol use in male Swedish military conscripts, aged 18 to 22 years. Design/methodology/approach: A quasi-experimental design was used in which 1,371…
-
Martín-Fernández, Jesus; Polentinos-Castro, Elena; del Cura-González, Ma Isabel; Ariza-Cardiel, Gloria; Abraira, Victor; Gil-LaCruz, Ana Isabel; García-Pérez, Sonia
2014-07-03
This paper examines the Willingness to Pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) expressed by people who attended the healthcare system as well as the association of attitude towards risk and other personal characteristics with their response. Health-state preferences, measured by EuroQol (EQ-5D-3L), were combined with WTP for recovering a perfect health state. WTP was assessed using close-ended, iterative bidding, contingent valuation method. Data on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, as well as usage of health services by the subjects were collected. The attitude towards risk was evaluated by collecting risky behaviors data, by the subject's self-evaluation, and through lottery games. Six hundred and sixty two subjects participated and 449 stated a utility inferior to 1. WTP/QALY ratios varied significantly when payments with personal money (mean €10,119; median €673) or through taxes (mean €28,187; median €915) were suggested. Family income, area income, higher education level, greater use of healthcare services, and the number of co-inhabitants were associated with greater WTP/QALY ratios. Age and female gender were associated with lower WTP/QALY ratios. Risk inclination was independently associated with a greater WTP/QALY when "out of pocket" payments were suggested. Clear discrepancies were demonstrated between linearity and neutrality towards risk assumptions and experimental results. WTP/QALY ratios vary noticeably based on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the subject, but also on their attitude towards risk. Knowing the expression of preferences by patients from this outcome measurement can be of interest for health service planning.
-
Matsui, Yusuke; Hiraki, Takao; Gobara, Hideo; Uka, Mayu; Masaoka, Yoshihisa; Tada, Akihiro; Toyooka, Shinichi; Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu; Mimura, Hidefumi; Kanazawa, Susumu
2012-06-01
To retrospectively investigate the incidence of and risk factors for phrenic nerve injury after radiofrequency (RF) ablation of lung tumors. The study included 814 RF ablation procedures of lung tumors. To evaluate the development of phrenic nerve injury, chest radiographs obtained before and after the procedure were examined. Phrenic nerve injury was assumed to have developed if the diaphragmatic level was elevated after the procedure. To identify risk factors for phrenic nerve injury, multiple variables were compared between cases of phrenic nerve injury and randomly selected controls by using univariate analyses. Multivariate analysis was then performed to identify independent risk factors. Evaluation of phrenic nerve injury from chest radiographs was possible after 786 procedures. Evidence of phrenic nerve injury developed after 10 cases (1.3%). Univariate analysis revealed that larger tumor size (≥ 20 mm; P = .014), proximity of the phrenic nerve to the tumor (< 10 mm; P < .001), the use of larger electrodes (array diameter or noninsulated tip length ≥ 3 cm; P = .001), and higher maximum power applied during ablation (≥ 100 W; P < .001) were significantly associated with the development of phrenic nerve injury. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the proximity of the phrenic nerve to the tumor (< 10 mm; P < .001) was a significant independent risk factor. The incidence of phrenic nerve injury after RF ablation was 1.3%. The proximity of the phrenic nerve to the tumor was an independent risk factor for phrenic nerve injury. Copyright © 2012 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles
2016-01-01
This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program’s results show that an increased focus on mobile outreach using rapid testing, incentives and health information technology tools may improve program acceptability, quality, productivity and timeliness of reports. This article describes program design decisions based on continuous quality assessment efforts. It also examines the impact of the Computer Assessment and Risk Reduction Education computer tool on HIV testing rates, staff perception of counseling quality, program productivity, and on the timeliness of evaluation reports. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for programmatic responses to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s HIV testing recommendations. PMID:21689041
-
da Cunha, Diogo Thimoteo; de Rosso, Veridiana Vera; Stedefeldt, Elke
2016-03-01
The objective of this study was to verify the characteristics of food safety inspections, considering risk categories and binary scores. A cross-sectional study was performed with 439 restaurants in 43 Brazilian cities. A food safety checklist with 177 items was applied to the food service establishments. These items were classified into four groups (R1 to R4) according to the main factors that can cause outbreaks involving food: R1, time and temperature aspects; R2, direct contamination; R3, water conditions and raw material; and R4, indirect contamination (i.e., structures and buildings). A score adjusted for 100 was calculated for the overall violation score and the violation score for each risk category. The average violation score (standard deviation) was 18.9% (16.0), with an amplitude of 0.0 to 76.7%. Restaurants with a low overall violation score (approximately 20%) presented a high number of violations from the R1 and R2 groups, representing the most risky violations. Practical solutions to minimize this evaluation bias were discussed. Food safety evaluation should use weighted scores and be risk-based. However, some precautions must be taken by researchers, health inspectors, and health surveillance departments to develop an adequate and reliable instrument.
-
ZARE, Mohsen; MALINGE-OUDENOT, Agnes; HÖGLUND, Robert; BIAU, Sophie; ROQUELAURE, Yves
2015-01-01
The aims of this study were 1) to assess the ergonomic physical risk factors from practitioner’s viewpoint in a truck assembly plant with an in-house observational method and the NIOSH lifting equation, and 2) to compare the results of both methods and their differences. The in-house ergonomic observational method for truck assembly i.e. the SCANIA Ergonomics Standard (SES) and the NIOSH lifting equation were applied to evaluate physical risk factors and lifting of loads by operators. Both risk assessment approaches revealed various levels of risk, ranging from low to high. Two workstations were identified by the SES method as high risk. The NIOSH lifting index (LI) was greater than two for four lifting tasks. The results of the SES method disagreed with the NIOSH lifting equation for lifting tasks. Moreover, meaningful variations in ergonomic risk patterns were found for various truck models at each workstation. These results provide a better understanding of the physical ergonomic exposure from practitioner’s point of view in the automotive assembly plant. PMID:26423331
-
Zare, Mohsen; Malinge-Oudenot, Agnes; Höglund, Robert; Biau, Sophie; Roquelaure, Yves
2016-01-01
The aims of this study were 1) to assess the ergonomic physical risk factors from practitioner's viewpoint in a truck assembly plant with an in-house observational method and the NIOSH lifting equation, and 2) to compare the results of both methods and their differences. The in-house ergonomic observational method for truck assembly i.e. the SCANIA Ergonomics Standard (SES) and the NIOSH lifting equation were applied to evaluate physical risk factors and lifting of loads by operators. Both risk assessment approaches revealed various levels of risk, ranging from low to high. Two workstations were identified by the SES method as high risk. The NIOSH lifting index (LI) was greater than two for four lifting tasks. The results of the SES method disagreed with the NIOSH lifting equation for lifting tasks. Moreover, meaningful variations in ergonomic risk patterns were found for various truck models at each workstation. These results provide a better understanding of the physical ergonomic exposure from practitioner's point of view in the automotive assembly plant.
-
Silva, Dalisbor Marcelo Weber; Borba, Victoria Zeghbi Cochenski; Kanis, John A
2017-12-09
Clinical risk factors for fracture in Southern Brazil are similar to those used in Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®). Age-dependent intervention thresholds had higher accuracy than a fixed cut-off point. Access to bone mineral density testing is wanted for a large part of the Brazilian population. The FRAX® has an option to calculate the risk of fracture without this costly evaluation but relies on the clinical risk factors (CRFs) identified in the source cohorts used to generate FRAX. The aims of this study were to determine whether the CRFs used in FRAX are also risk indicators for individuals in Southern Brazil and to evaluate possible intervention thresholds for treatment in Brazil. We determined the CRFs for hip fractures in women and men aged 50 years and more with a hip fracture and controls in Joinville, Southern Brazil (April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2012). For intervention thresholds, we determined the accuracy of using the fixed thresholds of National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF), USA, compared with the age-dependent thresholds of the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), UK. CRFs that were significant for hip fracture were very similar to FRAX, apart from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and malabsorptive intestinal disease. FRAX based on the NOGG and NOF models had an accuracy of 64.2 and 58.7%, respectively. CRFs used in FRAX® were similar to those in the Southern Brazil. The NOGG model seems to be more accurate to discriminate patients with increased fracture risk in this population compared to the NOF model, but not significantly.
-
Gutiérrez, Simón; Fernandez, Carlos; Barata, Carlos; Tarazona, José Vicente
2009-12-20
This work presents a computer model for Risk Assessment of Basins by Ecotoxicological Evaluation (RABETOX). The model is based on whole effluent toxicity testing and water flows along a specific river basin. It is capable of estimating the risk along a river segment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The Henares River Basin was selected as a case study to demonstrate the importance of seasonal hydrological variations in Mediterranean regions. As model inputs, two different ecotoxicity tests (the miniaturized Daphnia magna acute test and the D.magna feeding test) were performed on grab samples from 5 waste water treatment plant effluents. Also used as model inputs were flow data from the past 25 years, water velocity measurements and precise distance measurements using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The model was implemented into a spreadsheet and the results were interpreted and represented using GIS in order to facilitate risk communication. To better understand the bioassays results, the effluents were screened through SPME-GC/MS analysis. The deterministic model, performed each month during one calendar year, showed a significant seasonal variation of risk while revealing that September represents the worst-case scenario with values up to 950 Risk Units. This classifies the entire area of study for the month of September as "sublethal significant risk for standard species". The probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo analysis was performed on 7 different forecast points distributed along the Henares River. A 0% probability of finding "low risk" was found at all forecast points with a more than 50% probability of finding "potential risk for sensitive species". The values obtained through both the deterministic and probabilistic approximations reveal the presence of certain substances, which might be causing sublethal effects in the aquatic species present in the Henares River.
-
Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-Wen
2016-01-25
The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Katz, Marcelo; Laurinavicius, Antonio G; Franco, Fabio G M; Conceicao, Raquel D; Carvalho, Jose A M; Pesaro, Antonio E P; Wajngarten, Mauricio; Santos, Raul D
2015-08-01
Poor adherence to medical treatment represents a major health problem. A subject's misperception of his own cardiovascular risk has been indicated as a key driver for low compliance with preventive measures. This study analysed the relationship between objectively calculated short- and long-term cardiovascular risk and its subjective perception. Cross-sectional study in asymptomatic Brazilian subjects. Individuals (N = 6544, mean age 49.1 ± 7 years, 22.2% female) who underwent a routine mandatory health evaluation were studied. A questionnaire in which each individual rated his own cardiovascular risk as low, intermediate or high according to his own perception was used. The 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular risk were calculated respectively using the Framingham risk (FRS) and Lifetime risk (LRS) scores. Individuals were classified as hypo-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk lower than estimated risk), normo-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk coincident with estimated risk) and hyper-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk higher than estimated risk). Cardiovascular risk, using the FRS, was low in 77.9% (N = 5071), intermediate in 14.4% (N = 939) and high in 7.7% (N = 499) of subjects. Cardiovascular risk, using the LRS, was low in 7.6% (N = 492), intermediate in 43.1% (N = 2787) and high in 49.3% (N = 3184) of the study population. The prevalence of normo-perceivers was 57.6% using the FRS and only 20.6% using the LRS. Using the LRS, 72.3% of the intermediate and 91.2% of the high-risk subjects were hypo-perceivers. In a large sample of asymptomatic individuals, there was a gap between calculated and perceived cardiovascular risk. Using a long-term risk score, most of the intermediate- and high-risk subjects were hypo-perceivers. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.
-
Antihypertensive drugs decrease risk of Alzheimer disease: Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory Study.
Yasar, Sevil; Xia, Jin; Yao, Wenliang; Furberg, Curt D; Xue, Qian-Li; Mercado, Carla I; Fitzpatrick, Annette L; Fried, Linda P; Kawas, Claudia H; Sink, Kaycee M; Williamson, Jeff D; DeKosky, Steven T; Carlson, Michelle C
2013-09-03
The aim of this study was to determine whether use of diuretics, angiotensin-1 receptor blockers (ARB), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE-I), calcium channel blockers (CCB), or β-blockers (BB) was associated with a reduced risk of Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia in participants with normal cognition or mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Secondary longitudinal data analysis of the Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory Study in older adults at least 75 years of age with normal cognition (n = 1,928) or MCI (n = 320) over a median 6.1-year period using Cox proportional hazard models after adjusting for confounders. Diuretic use was reported by 15.6%, ARB 6.1%, ACE-I 15.1%, CCB 14.8%, and BB 20.5%. Of the 2,248 participants, 290 (13%) developed AD dementia. Hazard ratio for incident AD dementia among participants with normal cognition was 0.51 in diuretic (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.82), 0.31 in ARB (95% CI 0.14-0.68), 0.50 in ACE-I (95% CI 0.29-0.83), 0.62 in CCB (95% CI 0.35-1.09), and 0.58 in BB (95% CI 0.36-0.93) users and was not significantly altered when mean systolic blood pressure was above 140 mm Hg. In participants with MCI, only diuretic use was associated with decreased risk (hazard ratio = 0.38, 95% CI 0.20-0.73). Diuretic, ARB, and ACE-I use was, in addition to and/or independently of mean systolic blood pressure, associated with reduced risk of AD dementia in participants with normal cognition, while only diuretic use was associated with reduced risk in participants with MCI.
-
Program Evaluation of Growin' to Win: A Latchkey and Summer Program for At-Risk Youth.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
James, William H.; And Others
This document presents an evaluation of the effectiveness of the Growin' to Win Project, an after-school and summer program targeted at elementary and middle school aged youth at high risk of substance abuse and gang involvement. Growin' to Win is an expansion of a model latchkey program piloted at two Tacoma (Washington) schools in 1990. The…
-
Smith, Andrew D; Chan, Emily Y Y
2017-11-20
Myanmar is a country in political and economic transition. Facing a wide-variety of natural hazards and ongoing conflict, the country's under-developed infrastructure has resulted in high disaster risk. Following the devastation of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 and increased global focus on disaster management and risk reduction, Myanmar has begun development of national disaster policies. Myanmar's Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction addressed multiple stages of disaster development and has made progress towards national projects, however, has struggled to implement community-based preparedness and response initiatives. This article analyses Myanmar's disaster strategy, though the use of a disaster development framework and suggests areas for possible improvement. In particular, the article aims to generate discussion regarding methods of supporting objective evaluation of risk reduction initiatives in developing countries. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 5).
-
Sharkey, Katherine M.; Waters, Kelly; Millman, Richard P.; Moore, Robin; Martin, Susan M.; Bourjeily, Ghada
2014-01-01
Study Objective: To assess the validity of using the Apnea Risk Evaluation System (ARES) Unicorder for detecting obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in pregnant women. Methods: Sixteen pregnant women, mean age (SD) = 29.8 (5.4) years, average gestational age (SD) = 28.6 (6.3) weeks, mean body mass index (SD) = 44.7 (6.9) kg/m2 with signs and symptoms of OSA wore the ARES Unicorder during one night of laboratory polysomnography (PSG). PSG was scored according to AASM 2007 criteria, and PSG AHI and RDI were compared to the ARES 1%, 3%, and 4% AHIs calculated with the ARES propriety software. Results: Median PSG AHI and PSG RDI were 3.1 and 10.3 events/h of sleep, respectively. Six women had a PSG AHI ≥ 5 events/h of sleep and 11 had a PSG RDI ≥ 5 events/h of sleep. PSG AHI and RDI were strongly correlated with the ARES AHI measures. When compared with polysomnographic diagnosis of OSA, the ARES 3% algorithm provided the best balance between sensitivity (1.0 for PSG AHI, 0.91 for PSG RDI) and specificity (0.5 for PSG AHI, 0.8 for PSG RDI) for detecting sleep disordered breathing in our sample. Conclusions: The ARES Unicorder demonstrated reasonable consistency with PSG for diagnosing OSA in this small, heterogeneous sample of obese pregnant women. Citation: Sharkey KM, Waters K, Millman RP, Moore R, Martin SM, Bourjeily G. Validation of the Apnea Risk Evaluation System (ARES) device against laboratory polysomnography in pregnant women at risk for obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. J Clin Sleep Med 2014;10(5):497-502. PMID:24910550
-
Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.
Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier
2016-02-24
Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.
-
Health Risk Evaluations for Ingestion Exposure of Humans to Polonium-210
Scott, Bobby R.
2007-01-01
The incident in London during November 2006 involving a lethal intake by Mr. Alexander Litvinenko of the highly-radioactive, alpha-particles-emitting polonium-210 (Po-210) isotope, presumably via ingestion, sparked renewed interest in the area of Po-210 toxicity to humans. This paper is the result of assembling and interpreting existing Po-210 data within the context of what is considered a reliable risk model (hazard-function [HF] model) for characterizing the risk of death from deterministic effects of high alpha radiation doses and dose rates to body organs. The HF model was developed to address radiation exposure scenarios involving combined exposures to alpha, beta, and gamma radiations and can be used in circumstances where only one type of radiation is involved. Under a plausible but not yet validated set of assumptions and using available megabecquerel (Po-210) to gray dose-conversion factors, acute lethality risk vs. dose curves were developed for circumstances of ingestion exposure to Po-210 by humans. Initial risk calculations were carried out for a reference adult male human (a hypothetical 70-kg person). Results were then modified for application to all ages (except the in utero child) via the use of systemic Po-210 burden. Because of the unavailability of acute lethality data derived from human ingestions of high levels of Po-210, plausibility of risk calculations were evaluated based on data from studies of Po-210 injections in animals. The animal data, although limited, were found to be consistent with the theoretical risk calculations. Key findings are as follows: (1) ingestion (or inhalation) of a few tents of a milligram of Po-210 will likely be fatal to all exposed persons. (2) Lethal intakes are expected to involve fatal damage to the bone marrow which is likely to be compounded by damage caused by higher doses to other organs including the kidneys and liver. (3) Lethal intakes are expected to cause severe damage to the kidney, spleen, stomach
-
Insider Risk Evaluation and Audit
2009-08-01
by security or other management personnel as proactive measures to minimize insider risk. The study recommends that this tool be used to assess an...burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing the burden, to Department of Defense...VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to