Science.gov

Sample records for risk factors predict

  1. Family Factors Predicting Categories of Suicide Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Randell, Brooke P.; Wang, Wen-Ling; Herting, Jerald R.; Eggert, Leona L.

    2006-01-01

    We compared family risk and protective factors among potential high school dropouts with and without suicide-risk behaviors (SRB) and examined the extent to which these factors predict categories of SRB. Subjects were randomly selected from among potential dropouts in 14 high schools. Based upon suicide-risk status, 1,083 potential high school…

  2. Risk factors predictive of atrial fibrillation after lung cancer surgery.

    PubMed

    Iwata, Takekazu; Nagato, Kaoru; Nakajima, Takahiro; Suzuki, Hidemi; Yoshida, Shigetoshi; Yoshino, Ichiro

    2016-08-01

    Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF), the most frequent arrhythmia after pulmonary resection, is a cause of both morbidity and mortality. Being able to predict the risk of POAF before surgery would help us evaluate the surgical risk and plan prophylaxis. We investigated the reported preoperative risk factors associated with the incidence of POAF and found that the recommended predictive factors were quite variable. Therefore, we evaluated the previously reported preoperative risk factors for POAF using our institutional data. We discuss our findings in this short review. Male gender, resected lung volume, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), and left ventricular early transmitral velocity/mitral annular early diastolic velocity (E/e') calculated by echocardiography were suggested as independent predictors for POAF, but the predictive values of each individual parameter were not high. The lack of definitive predictors for POAF warrants further investigations by gathering the reported knowledge, to establish an effective preoperative examination strategy. PMID:26471506

  3. Prediction of Risk Factors of Frequent Relapse Idiopathic Nephrotic Syndrome.

    PubMed

    Jahan, I; Hanif, M; Ali, M A; Hoque, M M

    2015-10-01

    This case control study was aimed to identify the predictive risk factors for frequent relapse idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (INS) and conducted in Sir Salimullah Medical College & Mitford Hospital, Dhaka and at Renal and Dialysis Unit of Dhaka Shishu Hospital and Bangladesh Institute of Child Health (BICH), Dhaka, from January 2006 to December 2006. We examined retrospectively the clinical course of fifty cases of frequent relapse nephrotic syndrome (FRNS) as cases and fifty cases of infrequent relapse nephrotic syndrome (IRNS) as control who met the predefined enrollment criteria, followed for at least one year after initial onset of disease. After enrollment following parameters were studied as predictors of frequent relapse: i) Socio-demographic variables: age, sex, socio-economic condition, number of living room ii) Disease related variables i.e. age of onset, duration of illness, frequency of relapse within the 1st year, regimen of initial steroid therapy, total cumulative dose of steroid for remission, day of remission after starting steroid, association with atopy and infection, concomitant upper respiratory illness iii) Biochemical and pathological variables (at the time of initial attack) i.e. Serum albumin, serum cholesterol, blood urea, 24 hours urinary protein, serum creatinine, complete blood count, urine RBC, urine pus cell, urine culture. The test statistics used to analyses the data were descriptive statistics, Chi-square probability test, Student's t-test and Binary logistic regression analysis for Odds ratio. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age of onset (P<0.001, OR=0.9, 95% CI=0.85-0.95), poor socioeconomic status (P<0.034, OR=0.5.8, 95% CI=1.14-29.5) and low serum albumin level at the time of initial presentation (P<0.022, OR=0.8, 95% CI=0.65-0.97) were independent predictors of frequent relapse nephrotic syndrome. In conclusion, we demonstrated that age at onset, poor socioeconomic condition and low

  4. Predicting Children's Depressive Symptoms from Community and Individual Risk Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dallaire, Danielle H.; Cole, David A.; Smith, Thomas M.; Ciesla, Jeffrey A.; LaGrange, Beth; Jacquez, Farrah M.; Pineda, Ashley Q.; Truss, Alanna E.; Folmer, Amy S.

    2008-01-01

    Community, demographic, familial, and personal risk factors of childhood depressive symptoms were examined from an ecological theoretical approach using hierarchical linear modeling. Individual-level data were collected from an ethnically diverse (73% African-American) community sample of 197 children and their parents; community-level data were…

  5. Predicting reading disability: early cognitive risk and protective factors.

    PubMed

    Eklund, Kenneth Mikael; Torppa, Minna; Lyytinen, Heikki

    2013-02-01

    This longitudinal study examined early cognitive risk and protective factors for Grade 2 reading disability (RD). We first examined the reading outcome of 198 children in four developmental cognitive subgroups that were identified in our previous analysis: dysfluent trajectory, declining trajectory, unexpected trajectory and typical trajectory. We found that RD was unevenly distributed among the subgroups, although children with RD were found in all subgroups. A majority of the children with RD had familial risk for dyslexia. Second, we examined in what respect children with similar early cognitive development but different RD outcome differ from each other in cognitive skills, task-focused behaviour and print exposure. The comparison of the groups with high cognitive risk but different RD outcome showed significant differences in phonological skills, in the amount of shared reading and in task-focused behaviour. Children who ended up with RD despite low early cognitive risk had poorer cognitive skills, more task avoidance and they were reading less than children without RD and low cognitive risk. In summary, lack of task avoidance seemed to act as a protective factor, which underlines the importance of keeping children interested in school work and reading. PMID:23297103

  6. Predictive Risk Factors in the Treatment of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

    PubMed Central

    Aktun, Lebriz Hale; Yorgunlar, Betul; Karaca, Nilay; Akpak, Yaşam Kemal

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE This study aims to investigate predictive risk factors in the treatment of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). PATIENTS AND METHODS A total of 256 pregnant women who underwent 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) during 24–28 weeks of pregnancy were included according to the World Health Organization criteria. Demographic characteristics of the patients, including age, parity, family history of diabetes, body weight before pregnancy, and body weight at the diagnosis of GDM, were recorded. Fasting insulin and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) values at the time of diagnosis were evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups: those requiring insulin treatment (insulin group, n = 89) and those receiving diet therapy (diet group, n = 167) during pregnancy according to the American Diabetes Association recommendations. RESULTS A total of 34.76% of the pregnant women with GDM required insulin treatment. The mean age of these patients was significantly higher compared to the diet group (34.9 ± 0.6 years vs. 31.9 ± 0.6 years; P = 0.004). Body mass index before pregnancy was also significantly higher in the insulin group than that in the diet group (32 ± 0.9 kg/m2 vs. 29 ± 0.7 kg/m2; P = 0.004). Fasting blood glucose (FBG) during OGTT was 105.6 ± 2.1 mg/dL and 96.7 ± 1.1 mg/dL in the insulin group and diet group, respectively (P < 0.001). There was no significant difference in fasting plasma glucose during OGTT between the groups (P = 0.069), while plasma glucose at two hours was 161.1 ± 6.8 mg/dL in the insulin group and 145.1 ± 3.7 mg/dL in the diet group (P = 0.027). At the time of diagnosis, HbA1c values were significantly higher in the insulin group compared to the diet group (5.3 ± 0.1 vs. 4.9 ± 0.1; P = 0.001). There was no significant difference in FBG and homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance values between the groups (P = 0.908, P = 0.073). CONCLUSION Our study results suggest that age, family history of diabetes, body weight before

  7. School Violence in Taiwan: Examining How Western Risk Factors Predict School Violence in an Asian Culture

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Ji-Kang; Astor, Ron Avi

    2010-01-01

    The current study explores whether theorized risk factors in Western countries can be used to predict school violence perpetration in an Asian cultural context. The study examines the associations between risk factors and school violence perpetration in Taiwan. Data were obtained from a nationally representative sample of 14,022 students from…

  8. Development and Predictive Effects of Eating Disorder Risk Factors during Adolescence: Implications for Prevention Efforts

    PubMed Central

    Rohde, Paul; Stice, Eric; Marti, C. Nathan

    2014-01-01

    Objective Although several prospective studies have identified factors that increase risk for eating disorders, little is known about when these risk factors emerge and escalate, or when they begin to predict future eating disorder onset. The objective of this report was to address these key research gaps. Method Data were examined from a prospective study of 496 community female adolescents (M = 13.5, SD = 0.7 at baseline) who completed eight annual assessments of potential risk factors and eating disorders from preadolescence to young adulthood. Results Three variables exhibited positive linear increases: Perceived pressure to be thin, thin-ideal internalization and body dissatisfaction; three were best characterized as quadratic effects: dieting (essentially little change); negative affectivity (overall decrease), and BMI (overall increase). Elevated body dissatisfaction at ages 13, 14, 15, and 16 predicted DSM-5 eating disorders onset in the 4 year period after each assessment, but the predictive effects of other risk factors were largely confined to age 14; BMI did not predict eating disorders at any age. Discussion The results imply that these risk factors are present by early adolescence, though eating disorders tend to emerge in late adolescence and early adulthood. These findings emphasize the need for efficacious eating disorder prevention programs for early adolescent girls, perhaps targeting 14 year olds, when risk factors appear to be most predictive. In early adolescence, it might be fruitful to target girls with body dissatisfaction, as this was the most consistent predictor of early eating disorder onset in this study. PMID:24599841

  9. Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

    2015-12-01

    We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p < 0.0001 for differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion

  10. Which Risk Factors Predict the Basic Reading Skills of Children at Risk for Emotional and Behavioral Disorders?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, J. Ron; Stage, Scott; Trout, Alex; Duppong-Hurley, Kristin; Epstein, Michael H.

    2008-01-01

    Multinomial stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to establish the most robust set of risk factors that would best predict low basic reading skills (i.e., a standard score less than 85 on the Woodcock Reading Mastery Test-Revised Basic Reading Skills cluster) of kindergarten and first-grade children at risk for emotional and behavioral…

  11. Predicting Prostate Cancer Mortality Among Men With Intermediate to High-Risk Disease and Multiple Unfavorable Risk Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Nguyen, Paul L. Chen Minghui; Catalona, William J.; Moul, Judd W.; Sun, Leon; D'Amico, Anthony V.

    2009-03-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the number of unfavorable risk factors could be used to predict the risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) among men with intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We studied 1,063 men who underwent radical prostatectomy (n = 559), external beam radiotherapy (n = 288), or radiotherapy plus androgen suppression therapy (n = 116) for prostate cancer between 1965 and 2002. Fine and Gray's regression analysis was used to determine whether an increasing number of unfavorable risk factors (prostate-specific antigen level >10 ng/mL, Gleason score of {>=}7, clinical Stage T2b or greater, or pretreatment prostate-specific antigen velocity >2.0 ng/mL/y) was associated with the interval to PCSM and all-cause mortality. Results: Median follow-up was 5.6 years. Compared with those with one risk factor, the adjusted hazard ratio for PCSM was 2.3 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.8; p = 0.03) for two risk factors, 5.4 (95% confidence interval 2.7-10.7; p < 0.0001) for three risk factors, and 13.6 (95% confidence interval 6.3-29.2; p < 0.0001) for all four risk factors. The 5-year cumulative incidence of PCSM was 2.4% for one factor, 2.4% for two factors, 7.0% for three factors, and 14.7% for all four factors. Prostate cancer deaths as a proportion of all deaths was 19% for one factor, 33% for two factors, 53% for three factors, and 80% for four factors. Conclusion: The number of unfavorable risk factors was significantly associated with PCSM. Prostate cancer was the major cause of death in men with at least three risk factors. Therefore, these men should be considered for clinical trials designed to assess whether survival is prolonged with the addition of novel agents to current standards of practice.

  12. An update review on risk factors and scales for prediction of deep sternal wound infections.

    PubMed

    Buja, Alessandra; Zampieron, Alessandra; Cavalet, Sara; Chiffi, Daniele; Sandonà, Paolo; Vinelli, Angela; Baldovin, Tatjana; Baldo, Vincenzo

    2012-08-01

    Surgical site infections are the most common nosocomial infections in surgical patients. The preventable and the unmodifiable risk factors for deep sternal wound infections (DSWI) have been amply assessed in the literature. The aim of this review was to describe the results of the numerous published studies to describe all the DSWI risk factors and the scales devised to predict SWI, with a view to providing an update on this issue. A comprehensive search of the Medline and Embase databases was performed (considering studies from January 1995 to April 2011); and a manual search was also conducted using references cited in original publications and relevant review articles. There are several risk factors associated with DSWI, which could be classified in four categories as demographic (e.g. sex and age), behavioural (e.g. smoking and obesity), baseline clinical conditions (e.g. diabetes, hypertension and COPD) and surgical operative risk factors (e.g. duration of operation and emergency operation). Six scales for predicting the risk of DSWI are described in the literature: they vary not only in accuracy but also in ease of application and they are applied at different times (some only preoperatively and others also postoperatively). This study provides a broad update on our knowledge of the risk factors for DSWI and the scales for prediction with a view to improving the management of infections at cardiosurgery units. PMID:22151350

  13. Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

    PubMed

    Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

    2012-03-01

    Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] < 2.0) involves an understanding of which and how many factors contribute to poor outcomes. School-related factors appear to be among the many factors that significantly impact academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA < 2.0). Results yielded a cutoff point of 2 risk factors for predicting academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:22182300

  14. Predicting Fractures in an International Cohort using Risk Factor Algorithms, Without Bone Mineral Density

    PubMed Central

    Sambrook, Philip N; Flahive, Julie; Hooven, Fred H; Boonen, Steven; Chapurlat, Roland; Lindsay, Robert; Nguyen, Tuan V; Díez-Perez, Adolfo; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Greenspan, Susan L; Hosmer, David; Netelenbos, J Coen; Adachi, Jonathan D; Watts, Nelson B; Cooper, Cyrus; Roux, Christian; Rossini, Maurizio; Siris, Ethel S; Silverman, Stuart; Saag, Kenneth G; Compston, Juliet E; LaCroix, Andrea; Gehlbach, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    Clinical risk factors are associated with increased probability of fracture in postmenopausal women. We sought to compare prediction models using self-reported clinical risk factors, excluding bone-mineral density (BMD), to predict incident fracture among postmenopausal women. The GLOW study enrolled women aged ≥55 years were seen at 723 primary care practices in 10 countries. The population comprised 19,586 women aged ≥60 years who were not receiving anti-osteoporosis medication and were followed annually for 2 years. Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect data on characteristics, fracture risk factors, previous fractures, and health status. The main outcome measure compares the c index for models using the WHO Fracture Risk (FRAX), the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (FRC), and a simple model using age and prior fracture. Over 2 years, 880 women reported incident fractures including 69 hip fractures, 468 “major fractures” (as defined by FRAX) and 583 “osteoporotic fractures” (as defined by FRC). Using baseline clinical risk factors, both FRAX and FRC showed moderate ability to correctly order hip fracture times (c index for hip fracture: 0.78 and 0.76, respectively). C indices for “major” and “osteoporotic” fractures showed lower values, at 0.61 and 0.64. Neither algorithm was better than the model based on age+fracture history alone (c index for hip fracture: 0.78). In conclusion, estimation of fracture risk in an international primary care population of postmenopausal women can be made using clinical risk factors alone, without BMD. However, more sophisticated models incorporating multiple clinical risk factors including falls were not superior to more parsimonious models in predicting future fracture in this population. PMID:21887705

  15. Predictive Factors and Risk Mapping for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Munyua, Peninah M.; Murithi, R. Mbabu; Ithondeka, Peter; Hightower, Allen; Thumbi, Samuel M.; Anyangu, Samuel A.; Kiplimo, Jusper; Bett, Bernard; Vrieling, Anton; Breiman, Robert F.; Njenga, M. Kariuki

    2016-01-01

    Background To-date, Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred in 38 of the 69 administrative districts in Kenya. Using surveillance records collected between 1951 and 2007, we determined the risk of exposure and outcome of an RVF outbreak, examined the ecological and climatic factors associated with the outbreaks, and used these data to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. Methods Exposure to RVF was evaluated as the proportion of the total outbreak years that each district was involved in prior epizootics, whereas risk of outcome was assessed as severity of observed disease in humans and animals for each district. A probability-impact weighted score (1 to 9) of the combined exposure and outcome risks was used to classify a district as high (score ≥ 5) or medium (score ≥2 - <5) risk, a classification that was subsequently subjected to expert group analysis for final risk level determination at the division levels (total = 391 divisions). Divisions that never reported RVF disease (score < 2) were classified as low risk. Using data from the 2006/07 RVF outbreak, the predictive risk factors for an RVF outbreak were identified. The predictive probabilities from the model were further used to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. Results The final output was a RVF risk map that classified 101 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 21 districts as high risk, and 100 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 35 districts as medium risk and 190 divisions (48%) as low risk, including all 97 divisions in Nyanza and Western provinces. The risk of RVF was positively associated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), low altitude below 1000m and high precipitation in areas with solonertz, luvisols and vertisols soil types (p <0.05). Conclusion RVF risk map serves as an important tool for developing and deploying prevention and control measures against the disease. PMID:26808021

  16. Systemic inflammation and cardiovascular risk factors predict rapid progression of atherosclerosis in rheumatoid arthritis

    PubMed Central

    del Rincón, Inmaculada; Polak, Joseph F; O’Leary, Daniel H; Battafarano, Daniel F; Erikson, John M; Restrepo, Jose F; Molina, Emily; Escalante, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate atherosclerosis progression and identify influencing factors in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods We used carotid ultrasound to measure intima-media thickness (IMT) in RA patients, and ascertained cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, inflammation markers and medications. A second ultrasound was performed approximately 3 years later. We calculated the progression rate by subtracting the baseline from the follow-up IMT, divided by the time between the two scans. We used logistic regression to identify baseline factors predictive of rapid progression. We tested for interactions of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) with CV risk factors and medication use. Results Results were available for 487 RA patients. The mean (SD) common carotid IMT at baseline was 0.571 mm (0.151). After a mean of 2.8 years, the IMT increased by 0.050 mm (0.055), p≤0.001, a progression rate of 0.018 mm/year (95% CI 0.016 to 0.020). Baseline factors associated with rapid progression included the number of CV risk factors (OR 1.27 per risk factor, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.61), and the ESR (OR 1.12 per 10 mm/h, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.23). The ESR×CV risk factor and ESR×medication product terms were significant, suggesting these variables modify the association between the ESR and IMT progression. Conclusions Systemic inflammation and CV risk factors were associated with rapid IMT progression. CV risk factors may modify the role of systemic inflammation in determining IMT progression over time. Methotrexate and antitumour necrosis factor agents may influence IMT progression by reducing the effect of the systemic inflammation on the IMT. PMID:24845391

  17. Risk stratification in perforated duodenal ulcers. A prospective validation of predictive factors.

    PubMed Central

    Boey, J; Choi, S K; Poon, A; Alagaratnam, T T

    1987-01-01

    In order to validate a previously derived set of risk factors, 259 consecutive patients who had simple closure or definitive operation for perforated duodenal ulcers were studied prospectively. Major medical illness, preoperative shock, and longstanding perforation (more than 24 hours) correctly predicted the outcome in 93.8% of patients. Most importantly, 16 patients (6.2%) who died after operation could be identified (no false-negative error). The mortality rate increased progressively with increasing numbers of risk factors: 0%, 10%, 45.5%, and 100% in patients with none, one, two, and all three risk factors, respectively. These findings underscore the importance of patient selection and the feasibility of a risk grading system in guiding surgical management. Definitive surgery can be done safely in good-risk patients. Simple closure is preferable in those patients with uncomplicated perforations if any risk factor is present. Truncal vagotomy and drainage may be required if there is coexisting bleeding or stenosis. Nonoperative treatment deserves re-evaluation in patients with all three risk factors because of their uniformly dismal outcome after operation. PMID:3800459

  18. Mediated effects of physical risk factors, leader-member exchange and empowerment in predicting perceived injury risk.

    PubMed

    Muldoon, Jeffery; Matthews, Russell A; Foley, Caroline

    2012-04-01

    In the context of conservation of resources theory, we examine the indirect (mediated) effects of physical risk factors, leader-member exchange (LMX) and empowerment on perceived injury risk in a heterogeneous sample (N = 226) of individuals employed in occupations related to production, construction and installation/maintenance. Positioning work role stressors and upward safety communications as two important mediating variables, as predicted, LMX and empowerment demonstrated significant indirect effects on perceived injury risk. Results from our model also provide preliminary evidence that an asymmetrical dualistic process exists in terms of the effect physical risk factors have on perceived injury risk via depletion of both psychological (i.e. role stressors) and physical resources (i.e. physical symptoms). Theoretical and practical implications based on the results of our model are also discussed. PMID:22282314

  19. Identifying combinations of risk and protective factors predicting physical activity change in high school students.

    PubMed

    Dunton, Genevieve Fridlund; Atienza, Audie A; Tscherne, James; Rodriguez, Daniel

    2011-02-01

    Research sought to identify combinations of risk and protective factors predicting change in physical activity (PA) over one year in high school students. Adolescents (N = 344; M = 15.7 years) participated in a longitudinal study with assessment of demographics, substance use/smoking exposure, height and weight, psychological factors, and PA in 10th and 11th grade. PA participation in 11th grade was greatest for adolescents who engaged in PA and had high sports competence (78%), and least for adolescents who did not engage in or enjoy PA (13%) in 10th grade. Identifying adolescent subgroups at risk for decreasing PA can inform the development of tailored interventions. PMID:21467595

  20. Factors Predicting Adherence to Risk Management Behaviors of Women at Increased Risk for Developing Lymphedema

    PubMed Central

    Sherman, Kerry A.; Miller, Suzanne M.; Roussi, Pagona; Taylor, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Lymphedema affects 20-30% of women following breast cancer treatment. However, even when women are informed, they do not necessarily adhere to recommended lymphedema self-management regimens. Utilizing the Cognitive-Social Health Information Processing framework, we assessed cognitive and emotional factors influencing adherence to lymphedema risk management. Methods Women with breast cancer who had undergone breast and lymph node surgery were recruited through the Fox Chase Cancer Centre breast clinic. Participants (N=103) completed measures of lymphedema-related perceived risk, beliefs and expectancies, distress, self-regulatory ability to manage distress, knowledge, and adherence to risk management behaviors. They then received the American Cancer Society publication “Lymphedema: What Every Woman with Breast Cancer Should Know”. Cognitive and affective variables were reassessed at 6- and 12-months post-baseline. Results Maximum likelihood multilevel model analyses indicated that overall adherence increased over time, with significant differences between baseline and 6- and 12- month assessments. Adherence to wearing gloves was significantly lower than that for all other behaviors except electric razor use. Distress significantly decreased, and knowledge significantly increased, over time. Greater knowledge, higher self-efficacy to enact behaviors, lower distress, and higher self-regulatory ability to manage distress were associated with increased adherence. Conclusions Women who understand lymphedema risk management and feel confident in managing this risk are more likely to adhere to recommended strategies. These factors should be rigorously assessed as part of routine care to ensure that women have the self-efficacy to seek treatment and the self-regulatory skills to manage distress, which may undermine attempts to seek medical assistance. PMID:24970542

  1. Cardiorespiratory fitness is a stronger indicator of cardiometabolic risk factors and risk prediction than self-reported physical activity levels.

    PubMed

    Gray, Benjamin J; Stephens, Jeffrey W; Williams, Sally P; Davies, Christine A; Turner, Daniel; Bracken, Richard M

    2015-11-01

    This study investigated the relationships of self-reported physical activity levels and cardiorespiratory fitness in 81 males to assess which measurement is the greatest indicator of cardiometabolic risk. Physical activity levels were determined by the General Practice Physical Activity Questionnaire tool and cardiorespiratory fitness assessed using the Chester Step Test. Cardiovascular disease risk was estimated using the QRISK2, Framingham Lipids, Framingham body mass index and Joint British Societies' Guidelines-2 equations, and type 2 diabetes mellitus risk calculated using QDiabetes, Leicester Risk Assessment, Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and Cambridge Risk Score models. Categorising employees by cardiorespiratory fitness categories ('Excellent/Good' vs 'Average/Below Average') identified more differences in cardiometabolic risk factor (body mass index, waist circumference, total cholesterol, total cholesterol:high-density lipoprotein ratio, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, HbA(1c)) scores than physical activity (waist circumference only). Cardiorespiratory fitness levels also demonstrated differences in all four type 2 diabetes mellitus risk prediction models and both the QRISK2 and Joint British Societies' Guidelines-2 cardiovascular disease equations. Furthermore, significant negative correlations (p < 0.001) were observed between individual cardiorespiratory fitness values and estimated risk in all prediction models. In conclusion, from this preliminary observational study, cardiorespiratory fitness levels reveal a greater number of associations with markers of cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes mellitus compared to physical activity determined by the General Practice Physical Activity Questionnaire tool. PMID:26361778

  2. Risk factors assessment and risk prediction models in lung cancer screening candidates

    PubMed Central

    Wachuła, Ewa; Szabłowska-Siwik, Sylwia; Boratyn-Nowicka, Agnieszka; Czyżewski, Damian

    2016-01-01

    From February 2015, low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening entered the armamentarium of diagnostic tools broadly available to individuals at high-risk of developing lung cancer. While a huge number of pulmonary nodules are identified, only a small fraction turns out to be early lung cancers. The majority of them constitute a variety of benign lesions. Although it entails a burden of the diagnostic work-up, the undisputable benefit emerges from: (I) lung cancer diagnosis at earlier stages (stage shift); (II) additional findings enabling the implementation of a preventive action beyond the realm of thoracic oncology. This review presents how to utilize the risk factors from distinct categories such as epidemiology, radiology and biomarkers to target the fraction of population, which may benefit most from the introduced screening modality. PMID:27195269

  3. Risk factors assessment and risk prediction models in lung cancer screening candidates.

    PubMed

    Adamek, Mariusz; Wachuła, Ewa; Szabłowska-Siwik, Sylwia; Boratyn-Nowicka, Agnieszka; Czyżewski, Damian

    2016-04-01

    From February 2015, low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening entered the armamentarium of diagnostic tools broadly available to individuals at high-risk of developing lung cancer. While a huge number of pulmonary nodules are identified, only a small fraction turns out to be early lung cancers. The majority of them constitute a variety of benign lesions. Although it entails a burden of the diagnostic work-up, the undisputable benefit emerges from: (I) lung cancer diagnosis at earlier stages (stage shift); (II) additional findings enabling the implementation of a preventive action beyond the realm of thoracic oncology. This review presents how to utilize the risk factors from distinct categories such as epidemiology, radiology and biomarkers to target the fraction of population, which may benefit most from the introduced screening modality. PMID:27195269

  4. Risk factors predict post-traumatic stress disorder differently in men and women

    PubMed Central

    Christiansen, Dorte M; Elklit, Ask

    2008-01-01

    Background About twice as many women as men develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), even though men as a group are exposed to more traumatic events. Exposure to different trauma types does not sufficiently explain why women are more vulnerable. Methods The present work examines the effect of age, previous trauma, negative affectivity (NA), anxiety, depression, persistent dissociation, and social support on PTSD separately in men and women. Subjects were exposed to either a series of explosions in a firework factory near a residential area or to a high school stabbing incident. Results Some gender differences were found in the predictive power of well known risk factors for PTSD. Anxiety predicted PTSD in men, but not in women, whereas the opposite was found for depression. Dissociation was a better predictor for PTSD in women than in men in the explosion sample but not in the stabbing sample. Initially, NA predicted PTSD better in women than men in the explosion sample, but when compared only to other significant risk factors, it significantly predicted PTSD for both men and women in both studies. Previous traumatic events and age did not significantly predict PTSD in either gender. Conclusion Gender differences in the predictive value of social support on PTSD appear to be very complex, and no clear conclusions can be made based on the two studies included in this article. PMID:19017412

  5. Predictive Mapping of Human Risk for West Nile Virus (WNV) Based on Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors

    PubMed Central

    Rochlin, Ilia; Turbow, David; Gomez, Frank; Ninivaggi, Dominick V.; Campbell, Scott R.

    2011-01-01

    A West Nile virus (WNV) human risk map was developed for Suffolk County, New York utilizing a case-control approach to explore the association between the risk of vector-borne WNV and habitat, landscape, virus activity, and socioeconomic variables derived from publically available datasets. Results of logistic regression modeling for the time period between 2000 and 2004 revealed that higher proportion of population with college education, increased habitat fragmentation, and proximity to WNV positive mosquito pools were strongly associated with WNV human risk. Similar to previous investigations from north-central US, this study identified middle class suburban neighborhoods as the areas with the highest WNV human risk. These results contrast with similar studies from the southern and western US, where the highest WNV risk was associated with low income areas. This discrepancy may be due to regional differences in vector ecology, urban environment, or human behavior. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analytical tools were used to integrate the risk factors in the 2000–2004 logistic regression model generating WNV human risk map. In 2005–2010, 41 out of 46 (89%) of WNV human cases occurred either inside of (30 cases) or in close proximity (11 cases) to the WNV high risk areas predicted by the 2000–2004 model. The novel approach employed by this study may be implemented by other municipal, local, or state public health agencies to improve geographic risk estimates for vector-borne diseases based on a small number of acute human cases. PMID:21853103

  6. Simple risk factors to predict urgent endoscopy in nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding pre-endoscopically

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jianzong; Hu, Duanming; Tang, Wen; Hu, Chuanyin; Lu, Qin; Li, Juan; Zhu, Jianhong; Xu, Liming; Sui, Zhenyu; Qian, Mingjie; Wang, Shaofeng; Yin, Guojian

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The goal of this study is to evaluate how to predict high-risk nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) pre-endoscopically. A total of 569 NVUGIB patients between Match 2011 and January 2015 were retrospectively studied. The clinical characteristics and laboratory data were statistically analyzed. The severity of NVUGIB was based on high-risk NVUGIB (Forrest I–IIb), and low-risk NVUGIB (Forrest IIc and III). By logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic curve, simple risk score systems were derived which predicted patients’ risks of potentially needing endoscopic intervention to control bleeding. Risk score systems combined of patients’ serum hemoglobin (Hb) ≤75 g/L, red hematemesis, red stool, shock, and blood urine nitrogen ≥8.5 mmol/L within 24 hours after admission were derived. As for each one of these clinical signs, the relatively high specificity was 97.9% for shock, 96.4% for red stool, 85.5% for red hematemesis, 76.7% for Hb ≤75 g/L, and the sensitivity was 50.8% for red hematemesis, 47.5% for Hb ≤75 g/L, 14.2% for red stool, and 10.9% for shock. When these 5 clinical signs were presented as a risk score system, the highest area of receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.746, with sensitivity 0.675 and specificity 0.733, which discriminated well with high-risk NVUGIB. These simple risk factors identified patients with high-risk NVUGIB of needing treatment to manage their bleeding pre-endoscopically. Further validation in the clinic was required. PMID:27367977

  7. Simple risk factors to predict urgent endoscopy in nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding pre-endoscopically.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jianzong; Hu, Duanming; Tang, Wen; Hu, Chuanyin; Lu, Qin; Li, Juan; Zhu, Jianhong; Xu, Liming; Sui, Zhenyu; Qian, Mingjie; Wang, Shaofeng; Yin, Guojian

    2016-06-01

    The goal of this study is to evaluate how to predict high-risk nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) pre-endoscopically. A total of 569 NVUGIB patients between Match 2011 and January 2015 were retrospectively studied. The clinical characteristics and laboratory data were statistically analyzed. The severity of NVUGIB was based on high-risk NVUGIB (Forrest I-IIb), and low-risk NVUGIB (Forrest IIc and III). By logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic curve, simple risk score systems were derived which predicted patients' risks of potentially needing endoscopic intervention to control bleeding. Risk score systems combined of patients' serum hemoglobin (Hb) ≤75 g/L, red hematemesis, red stool, shock, and blood urine nitrogen ≥8.5 mmol/L within 24 hours after admission were derived. As for each one of these clinical signs, the relatively high specificity was 97.9% for shock, 96.4% for red stool, 85.5% for red hematemesis, 76.7% for Hb ≤75 g/L, and the sensitivity was 50.8% for red hematemesis, 47.5% for Hb ≤75 g/L, 14.2% for red stool, and 10.9% for shock. When these 5 clinical signs were presented as a risk score system, the highest area of receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.746, with sensitivity 0.675 and specificity 0.733, which discriminated well with high-risk NVUGIB. These simple risk factors identified patients with high-risk NVUGIB of needing treatment to manage their bleeding pre-endoscopically. Further validation in the clinic was required. PMID:27367977

  8. The importance of climatic factors and outliers in predicting regional monthly campylobacteriosis risk in Georgia, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weisent, J.; Seaver, W.; Odoi, A.; Rohrbach, B.

    2014-01-01

    Incidence of Campylobacter infection exhibits a strong seasonal component and regional variations in temperate climate zones. Forecasting the risk of infection regionally may provide clues to identify sources of transmission affected by temperature and precipitation. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess temporal patterns and differences in campylobacteriosis risk among nine climatic divisions of Georgia, USA, (2) compare univariate forecasting models that analyze campylobacteriosis risk over time with those that incorporate temperature and/or precipitation, and (3) investigate alternatives to supposedly random walk series and non-random occurrences that could be outliers. Temporal patterns of campylobacteriosis risk in Georgia were visually and statistically assessed. Univariate and multivariable forecasting models were used to predict the risk of campylobacteriosis and the coefficient of determination (R 2) was used for evaluating training (1999-2007) and holdout (2008) samples. Statistical control charting and rolling holdout periods were investigated to better understand the effect of outliers and improve forecasts. State and division level campylobacteriosis risk exhibited seasonal patterns with peaks occurring between June and August, and there were significant associations between campylobacteriosis risk, precipitation, and temperature. State and combined division forecasts were better than divisions alone, and models that included climate variables were comparable to univariate models. While rolling holdout techniques did not improve predictive ability, control charting identified high-risk time periods that require further investigation. These findings are important in (1) determining how climatic factors affect environmental sources and reservoirs of Campylobacter spp. and (2) identifying regional spikes in the risk of human Campylobacter infection and their underlying causes.

  9. The Patterns, Risk Factors, and Prediction of Progression in Chronic Kidney Disease: A Narrative Review.

    PubMed

    Collister, David; Ferguson, Thomas; Komenda, Paul; Tangri, Navdeep

    2016-07-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global public health problem that is associated with excess morbidity, mortality, and health resource utilization. The progression of CKD is defined by a decrease in glomerular filtration rate and leads to a variety of metabolic abnormalities including acidosis, hypertension, anemia, and mineral bone disorder. Lower glomerular filtration rate also bears a strong relationship with an increased risk of cardiovascular events, end-stage renal disease, and death. Patterns of CKD progression include linear and nonlinear trajectories, but kidney function can remain stable for years in some individuals. Addressing modifiable risk factors for the progression of CKD is needed to attenuate its associated morbidity and mortality. Developing effective risk prediction models for CKD progression is critical to identify patients who are more likely to benefit from interventions and more intensive monitoring. Accurate risk-prediction algorithms permit systems to best align health care resources with risk to maximize their effects and efficiency while guiding overall decision making. PMID:27475658

  10. Predicting Children’s Depressive Symptoms from Community and Individual Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Cole, David A.; Smith, Thomas M.; Ciesla, Jeffrey A.; LaGrange, Beth; Jacquez, Farrah M.; Pineda, Ashley Q.; Truss, Alanna E.; Folmer, Amy S.

    2011-01-01

    Community, demographic, familial, and personal risk factors of childhood depressive symptoms were examined from an ecological theoretical approach using hierarchical linear modeling. Individual-level data were collected from an ethnically diverse (73% African-American) community sample of 197 children and their parents; community-level data were obtained from the U.S. Census regarding rates of community poverty and unemployment in participants’ neighborhoods. Results indicated that high rates of community poverty and unemployment, children’s depressive attributional style, and low levels of self-perceived competence predict children’s depressive symptoms, even after accounting for demographic and familial risk factors, such as parental education and negative parenting behaviors. The effect of negative parenting behaviors on depressive symptoms was partially mediated by personal variables like children’s self-perceived competence. Recommendations for future research, intervention and prevention programs are discussed. PMID:25364062

  11. Health-risk behaviors among a sample of US pre- adolescents: Types, frequency, and predictive factors

    PubMed Central

    Riesch, Susan K.; Kedrowski, Karen; Brown, Roger L.; Temkin, Barbara Myers; Wang, Kevin; Henriques, Jeffrey; Jacobson, Gloria; Giustino-Kluba, Nina

    2012-01-01

    Background Children as young as 10 years old report curiosity and participation in health-risk behaviors, yet most studies focus upon adolescent samples. Objective To document the types and frequencies of health risk behavior among pre-adolescents and to examine the child, family, and environment factors that predict them. Method A sample of 297 pre-adolescents (mean age = 10.5, SD = 0.6) from two Midwestern US cities and their parents (child-parent dyads) provided data about demographic characteristics, health risk behavior participation, child self-esteem, child pubertal development, child and adult perception of their neighborhood, and parent monitoring. Their participation was at intake to a 5-year clustered randomized controlled trial. Results Pre-adolescents participated in an average of 3.7 health-risk behaviors (SD = 2.0), primarily those that lead to unintentional (helmet and seatbelt use) and intentional (feeling unsafe, having something stolen, and physical fighting) injury. Factors predictive of unintentional injury risk behavior were self-esteem, pubertal development, parent monitoring, and parent perception of the neighborhood environment. Boys were 1.8 times less likely than girls to use helmets and seatbelts. Pre-adolescents whose parents were not partnered were 2.8 times more likely than pre-adolescents whose parents were partnered to report intentional risk behavior. Recommendations These data demonstrate trends that cannot be ignored. We recommend, focused specifically upon boys and non-partnered families, that (a) developmentally-appropriate, appealing prevention messages be developed and delivered for parents and pre-adolescents and community interventions targeting both parent and pre-adolescent together be provided to help them establish and monitor behavioral expectations and (b) organized nursing endorse policy in the US and globally that assures adequate family environments for children. PMID:23177901

  12. Barriers to Predicting the Mechanisms and Risk Factors of Non-Contact Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury

    PubMed Central

    Ali, Nicholas; Rouhi, Gholamreza

    2010-01-01

    High incidences of non-contact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, frequent requirements for ACL reconstruction, and limited understanding of ACL mechanics have engendered considerable interest in quantifying the ACL loading mechanisms. Although some progress has been made to better understand non-contact ACL injuries, information on how and why non-contact ACL injuries occur is still largely unavailable. In other words, research is yet to yield consensus on injury mechanisms and risk factors. Biomechanics, video analysis, and related study approaches have elucidated to some extent how ACL injuries occur. However, these approaches are limited because they provide estimates, rather than precise measurements of knee - and more specifically ACL - kinematics at the time of injury. These study approaches are also limited in their inability to simultaneously capture many of the contributing factors to injury. This paper aims at elucidating and summarizing the key challenges that confound our understanding in predicting the mechanisms and subsequently identifying risk factors of non-contact ACL injury. This work also appraise the methodological rigor of existing study approaches, review testing protocols employed in published studies, as well as presents a possible coupled approach to better understand injury mechanisms and risk factors of non-contact ACL injury. Three comprehensive electronic databases and hand search of journal papers, covering numerous full text published English articles were utilized to find studies on the association between ACL and injury mechanisms, ACL and risk factors, as well as, ACL and investigative approaches. This review unveils that new research modalities and/or coupled research methods are required to better understand how and why the ACL gets injured. Only by achieving a better understanding of ACL loading mechanisms and the associated contributing factors, one will be able to develop robust prevention strategies and exercise

  13. Risk factors for postpartum problems in dairy cows: explanatory and predictive modeling.

    PubMed

    Vergara, C F; Döpfer, D; Cook, N B; Nordlund, K V; McArt, J A A; Nydam, D V; Oetzel, G R

    2014-07-01

    The postpartum period is associated with a high incidence of most dairy cattle diseases and a high risk of removal from the herd. Postpartum diseases often share risk factors, and these factors may trigger a cascade of other diseases. The objective of this cohort study was to derive explanatory and predictive models for treatment or removal from the herd within the first 30 d in milk (TXR30). The TXR30 outcome was specifically defined as ≥1 treatment for ≥1 occurrence of milk fever, retained placenta, metritis, ketosis, displaced abomasum, lameness, or pneumonia; removal from the herd (sold or died); or both treatment and later herd removal. The study population consisted of 765 multiparous and 544 primiparous cows (predominantly Holstein) from 4 large commercial freestall-housed dairy herds. Treatment or removal from the herd was recorded as a binary outcome for each cow. Potential explanatory and predictive variables were limited to routine cow data that could be collected either before or within 24 h of calving. Models for multiparous and primiparous cows were developed separately because previous lactation variables are available only for multiparous cows. Adjusted odds ratios for TXR30 in the explanatory model for the multiparous cohort were 2.1 for lactation 3 compared with lactation 2, and 2.3 for lactation 4 or greater compared with lactation 2; 2.3 for locomotion score 3 or 4 compared with score 1; 3.3 for an abnormality at calving compared with no calving abnormality; 1.8 for each 1-standard deviation increase in previous lactation length; and 0.4 for each 5,000-kg increment in previous lactation milk yield in cows with longer previous lactation length. The final predictive model for TXR30 in multiparous cows included predictors similar but not identical to those included in the explanatory model. The area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic curve from the final predictive model for the multiparous cohort was 0.70, with 60

  14. Cardiovascular risk factors predicting all causes of death in an occupational population sample.

    PubMed

    Menotti, A; Seccareccia, F

    1988-12-01

    A group of 768 men aged 40-59 at entry examination and belonging to an occupational sample of railroad employees in Rome have been examined for the measurement of some risk factors and followed-up for 20 years. In all 676 men, free from life-threatening diseases and with all measurements available, produced 166 fatal events in 20 years. Out of the 27 different personal characteristics considered only six contributed significantly to the multivariate prediction of all causes of death in the Cox proportional hazards computed by the forward stepwise technique. The factors predicting all causes of death were age, cigarette smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, mother's vital status and being on a diet prescribed by a doctor. The relative risk of those located in the upper decile of the estimated risk as compared to the bottom decile was 8.2. The results do not differ much from those obtained in a demographic sample studied in the same way. PMID:3225084

  15. Predicting Risk Factors for Intimate Partner Violence Among Post-9/11 College Student Veterans.

    PubMed

    Klaw, Elena L; Demers, Anne L; Da Silva, Nancy

    2016-02-01

    The current conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq present unique risk factors for military personnel that increase the likelihood of psychological distress and concomitant consequences related to trauma. Several studies have found that the stress brought about by financial difficulties, unemployment, and the need to renegotiate roles and responsibilities with spouses following discharge increases the likelihood of relationship strain and even intimate partner violence in the veteran population. This study was undertaken to determine the challenges related to maintaining healthy relationships for college student veterans who have served in the armed forces since September 11, 2001. Psychological distress, substance use, and hypermasculine attitudes were explored as risk factors for intimate violence. Social support was found to be a protective buffer against psychological aggression. However, approximately a third of college student veterans reported low social support along with symptoms of distress, placing them at elevated risk of partner abuse. The current article explores models for predicting risk of perpetrating aggression in college student veterans and concludes that culturally tailored programs and services are needed. PMID:25389195

  16. Determining the main risk factors and high-risk groups of breast cancer using a predictive model for breast cancer risk assessment in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Lee, Eun-Ok; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; You, Chunghee; Lee, Dong-Suk; Han, Wonshik; Choe, Kuk-Jin; Noh, Dong-Young

    2004-01-01

    This study was aimed at developing a predictive model for assessing the breast cancer risk of Korean women under the assumption of differences in the risk factors between Westerners and Koreans. The cohort comprised 384 breast cancer patients and 2 control groups: one comprising 166 hospitalized patients and the other comprising 104 nurses and teachers. Two initial models were produced by comparing cases and the 2 control groups, and the final equations were established by selecting highly significant variables of the initial models to test the accuracy of the models in terms of disease probability and predictability. Both the initial models and the final disease-probability models were confirmed to exhibit high degrees of accuracy and predictability. Major risk factors determined by comparing the patients with hospitalized controls were a family history, menstrual regularity, total menstrual duration, age at first full-term pregnancy, and duration of breastfeeding. Major risk factors determined by comparing patients with nurse/teacher controls were age, education level, menstrual regularity, drinking status, and smoking status. The predictive model developed here shows that risk factors for breast cancer differ between Korean and Western subjects in the aspect of breastfeeding behavior. However, identifying the relationship between genetic susceptibility and breast cancer will require further studies with larger samples. In a model with nurse/teacher controls, drinking and higher education were found to be protective variables, whereas smoking was a risk factor. Hence the predictive model in this group could not be generalized to the Korean population; instead, breast cancer incidence needs to be compared among nurses and teachers in a nurse-and-teacher cohort. PMID:15525868

  17. Battered Women's Perceptions of Risk Versus Risk Factors and Instruments in Predicting Repeat Reassault

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heckert, D. Alex; Gondolf, Edward W.

    2004-01-01

    This study partially replicates and expands on a previous study that showed women's perceptions of risk to be a strong predictor of reassault among batterers. The current study employed a larger and multisite sample, a longer follow-up period of 15 months, and multiple outcomes including "repeated reassault" (n = 499). According to the multinomial…

  18. Performance of genetic risk factors in prediction of trichloroethylene induced hypersensitivity syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Yufei; Chen, Ying; Huang, Hanlin; Zhou, Wei; Niu, Yong; Zhang, Mingrong; Bin, Ping; Dong, Haiyan; Jia, Qiang; Huang, Jianxun; Yi, Juan; Liao, Qijun; Li, Haishan; Teng, Yanxia; Zang, Dan; Zhai, Qingfeng; Duan, Huawei; Shen, Juan; He, Jiaxi; Meng, Tao; Sha, Yan; Shen, Meili; Ye, Meng; Jia, Xiaowei; Xiang, Yingping; Huang, Huiping; Wu, Qifeng; Shi, Mingming; Huang, Xianqing; Yang, Huanming; Luo, Longhai; Li, Sai; Li, Lin; Zhao, Jinyang; Li, Laiyu; Wang, Jun; Zheng, Yuxin

    2015-01-01

    Trichloroethylene induced hypersensitivity syndrome is dose-independent and potentially life threatening disease, which has become one of the serious occupational health issues and requires intensive treatment. To discover the genetic risk factors and evaluate the performance of risk prediction model for the disease, we conducted genomewide association study and replication study with total of 174 cases and 1761 trichloroethylene-tolerant controls. Fifty seven SNPs that exceeded the threshold for genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8) were screened to relate with the disease, among which two independent SNPs were identified, that is rs2857281 at MICA (odds ratio, 11.92; Pmeta = 1.33 × 10−37) and rs2523557 between HLA-B and MICA (odds ratio, 7.33; Pmeta = 8.79 × 10−35). The genetic risk score with these two SNPs explains at least 20.9% of the disease variance and up to 32.5-fold variation in inter-individual risk. Combining of two SNPs as predictors for the disease would have accuracy of 80.73%, the area under receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) scores was 0.82 with sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 85%, which was considered to have excellent discrimination for the disease, and could be considered for translational application for screening employees before exposure. PMID:26190474

  19. Wind Power predictability a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of Wind Generation Turbines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiesen, J.; Gulstad, L.; Ristic, I.; Maric, T.

    2010-09-01

    Summit: The wind power predictability is often a forgotten decision and planning factor for most major wind parks, both onshore and offshore. The results of the predictability are presented after having examined a number of European offshore and offshore parks power predictability by using three(3) mesoscale model IRIE_GFS and IRIE_EC and WRF. Full description: It is well known that the potential wind production is changing with latitude and complexity in terrain, but how big are the changes in the predictability and the economic impacts on a project? The concept of meteorological predictability has hitherto to some degree been neglected as a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of wind power plants. Wind power plants are generally built in places where the wind resources are high, but these are often also sites where the predictability of the wind and other weather parameters is comparatively low. This presentation addresses the question of whether higher predictability can outweigh lower average wind speeds with regard to the overall economy of a wind power project. Low predictability also tends to reduce the value of the energy produced. If it is difficult to forecast the wind on a site, it will also be difficult to predict the power production. This, in turn, leads to increased balance costs and a less reduced carbon emission from the renewable source. By investigating the output from three(3) mesoscale models IRIE and WRF, using ECMWF and GFS as boundary data over a forecasting period of 3 months for 25 offshore and onshore wind parks in Europe, the predictability are mapped. Three operational mesoscale models with two different boundary data have been chosen in order to eliminate the uncertainty with one mesoscale model. All mesoscale models are running in a 10 km horizontal resolution. The model output are converted into "day a head" wind turbine generation forecasts by using a well proven advanced physical wind power model. The power models

  20. Clinical and histological predictive risk factors of atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing open-heart surgery

    PubMed Central

    TINICA, GRIGORE; MOCANU, VERONICA; ZUGUN-ELOAE, FLORIN; BUTCOVAN, DOINA

    2015-01-01

    Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication subsequent to cardiac surgery. Various risk factors have been reported for the development of this complication; however, their precise role in POAF is unknown. In the present study, we attempted to identify clinical factors and histopathological changes in atrial tissue that may predict the development of POAF. Atrial tissue was sampled from 103 patients in sinus rhythm that had undergone open-heart surgery, including elective coronary artery bypass grafting (79.61%) and heart valve surgery (20.38%). Atrial surgical biopsies were obtained from the right atrial appendage at the site of cannulation, prior to cardiopulmonary bypass. Tissues were processed routinely for light microscopy, then stained with hematoxylin and eosin and sirius red. Microscopical exams were used to observe the atrial lesions and morphometry was conducted for quantification. In total, 37 patients (35.92%) developed POAF and atrial lesions were identified in the majority of patients in the normal postoperative sinus rhythm and POAF groups, but were most common in the POAF patients. The most common risk factors involved in developing POAF were found to be: Age of >60 years, male gender, ejection fraction of <50% and increased pulmonary hypertension. Furthermore, interstitial fibrosis and myocytolysis were the most common injuries identified. Abnormalities in atrial surgical biopsies may indicate the susceptibility of a patient to developing POAF. The present results suggest that the pre-existent alterations in the structure of the right atrium may be a major determinant in the development of POAF. PMID:26668632

  1. Cardiometabolic risk factors predict cerebrovascular health in older adults: results from the Brain in Motion study.

    PubMed

    Tyndall, Amanda V; Argourd, Laurie; Sajobi, Tolulope T; Davenport, Margie H; Forbes, Scott C; Gill, Stephanie J; Parboosingh, Jillian S; Anderson, Todd J; Wilson, Ben J; Smith, Eric E; Hogan, David B; Hill, Michael D; Poulin, Marc J

    2016-04-01

    Aging and physical inactivity are associated with an increased risk of developing metabolic syndrome (MetS). With the rising prevalence of MetS, it is important to determine the extent to which it affects cerebrovascular health. The primary purpose of this report is to examine the impact of MetS on cerebrovascular health (resting cerebral blood flow (CBF) peak velocity (V¯P), cerebrovascular conductance (CVC), and CBF responses to hypercapnia) in healthy older adults with normal cognition. A secondary goal was to examine the influence of apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 expression on these indices. In a sample of 258 healthy men and women older than 53 years, 29.1% met criteria for MetS. MetS, sex, and age were found to be significant predictors of CVC, and V¯P, MetS, and APOE status were significant predictors of V¯P-reactivity, and CVC-reactivity was best predicted by MetS status. After controlling for these factors, participants with MetS demonstrated lower cerebrovascular measures (CVC, V¯P, CVC-reactivity, and V¯P-reactivity) compared to participants without MetS. APOE ε4 carriers had higher V¯P-reactivity than noncarriers. These results provide evidence that cardiometabolic and vascular risk factors clustered together as the MetS predict measures of cerebrovascular health indices in older adults. Higher V¯P-reactivity in APOE ε4 carriers suggests vascular compensation for deleterious effects of this known risk allele for Alzheimer's disease and stroke. PMID:27117804

  2. Risk factors perceived predictive of ISA spread in Chile: applications to decision support.

    PubMed

    Gustafson, L; Antognoli, M; Lara Fica, M; Ibarra, R; Mancilla, J; Sandoval Del Valle, O; Enriquez Sais, R; Perez, A; Aguilar, D; Madrid, E; Bustos, P; Clement, A; Godoy, M G; Johnson, C; Remmenga, M

    2014-11-01

    Aquaculture is anticipated to be a critical element in future solutions to global food shortage. However, diseases can impede industry efficiency and sustainability. Consequently, diseases can and have led to dramatic re-structuring in industry or regulatory practices. The emergence of infectious salmon anemia (ISA) in Chile is one such example. As in other countries, many mitigations were instituted universally, and many incurred considerable costs as they introduced a new layer of coordination of farming activities of marine sites within common geographic areas (termed 'neighborhoods' or 'barrios'). The aggregate response led to a strong reduction in ISA incidence and impact. However, the relative value of individual mitigations is less clear, especially where response policies were universally applied and retrospective analyses are missing 'controls' (i.e., areas where a mitigation was not applied). Further, re-focusing policies around disease prevention following resolution of an outbreak is important to renew sustainable production; though, again, field data to guide this shift in purpose are often lacking. Expert panels can offer timely decision support in the absence of empirical data. We convened a panel of fish health experts to weight risk factors predictive of ISA virus (ISAV) introduction or spread between Atlantic salmon barrios in Chile. Barrios, rather than sites, were the unit of interest because many of the new mitigations operate at this level and few available studies examine their efficacy. Panelists identified barrio processing plant biosecurity, fallowing strategies, adult live fish transfers, fish and site density, smolt quality, hydrographic connection with other neighborhoods, presence of sea lice (Caligus rogercresseyi), and harvest vessel biosecurity as factors with the greatest predictive strength for ISAV virulent genotype ('HPR-deleted') occurrence. Fewer factors were considered predictive of ISAV HPR0 genotype ('HPR0') occurrence

  3. Is Obesity Predictive of Cardiovascular Dysfunction Independent of Cardiovascular Risk Factors?

    PubMed Central

    DeVallance, Evan; Fournier, Sara B.; Donley, David A.; Bonner, Daniel E.; Lee, Kyuwan; Frisbee, Jefferson C.; Chantler, Paul D.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Obesity is thought to exert detrimental effects on the cardiovascular (CV) system. However, this relationship is impacted by the co-occurrence of CV risk factors, type II diabetes (T2DM), and overt disease. We examined the relationships between obesity, assessed by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and CV function in 102 subjects without overt CV disease. We hypothesized that obesity would be independently predictive of CV remodeling and functional differences, especially at peak exercise. Methods Brachial (bSBP) and central (cSBP) systolic pressure, carotid-to-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWVcf) augmentation index (AGI) (by SphygmoCor), and carotid remodeling (B-mode ultrasound) were examined at rest. Further, peak exercise cardiac imaging (Doppler ultrasound) was performed to measure the coupling between the heart and arterial system. Results In backward elimination regression models, accounting for CV risk factors, neither BMI nor WC were predictors of carotid thickness or PWVcf; rather age, triglycerides, and hypertension were the main determinants. However, BMI and WC predicted carotid cross-sectional area and lumen diameter. When examining the relationship between body size and SBP, BMI (β=0.32) and WC (β=0.25) were predictors of bSBP (p<0.05), whereas, BMI was the only predictor of cSBP (β=0.22, p<0.05) indicating a differential relationship between cSBP, bSBP and body size. Further, BMI (β=−0.26) and WC (β=−0.27) were independent predictors of AGI (p<0.05). As for resting cardiac diastolic function, WC seemed to be a better predictor than BMI. However, both BMI and WC were inversely and independently related to arterial elastance (net arterial load) and end-systolic elastance (cardiac contractility) at rest and peak exercise. Discussion These findings illustrate that obesity, without T2DM and overt CV disease, and after accounting for CV risk factors, is susceptible to pathophysiological adaptations that may

  4. Risk factors predictive of occult cancer detection in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism

    PubMed Central

    Ihaddadene, Ryma; Corsi, Daniel J.; Lazo-Langner, Alejandro; Shivakumar, Sudeep; Zarychanski, Ryan; Tagalakis, Vicky; Solymoss, Susan; Routhier, Nathalie; Douketis, James; Le Gal, Gregoire

    2016-01-01

    Risk factors predictive of occult cancer detection in patients with a first unprovoked symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) are unknown. Cox proportional hazard models and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the effect of specific risk factors on occult cancer detection within 1 year of a diagnosis of unprovoked VTE in patients randomized in the Screening for Occult Malignancy in Patients with Idiopathic Venous Thromboembolism (SOME) trial. A total of 33 (3.9%; 95% CI, 2.8%-5.4%) out of the 854 included patients received a new diagnosis of cancer at 1-year follow-up. Age ≥ 60 years (hazard ratio [HR], 3.11; 95% CI, 1.41-6.89; P = .005), previous provoked VTE (HR, 3.20; 95% CI, 1.19-8.62; P = .022), and current smoker status (HR, 2.80; 95% CI, 1.24-6.33; P = .014) were associated with occult cancer detection. Age, prior provoked VTE, and smoking status may be important predictors of occult cancer detection in patients with first unprovoked VTE. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00773448. PMID:26817957

  5. Risk factors predictive of occult cancer detection in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism.

    PubMed

    Ihaddadene, Ryma; Corsi, Daniel J; Lazo-Langner, Alejandro; Shivakumar, Sudeep; Zarychanski, Ryan; Tagalakis, Vicky; Solymoss, Susan; Routhier, Nathalie; Douketis, James; Le Gal, Gregoire; Carrier, Marc

    2016-04-21

    Risk factors predictive of occult cancer detection in patients with a first unprovoked symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) are unknown. Cox proportional hazard models and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the effect of specific risk factors on occult cancer detection within 1 year of a diagnosis of unprovoked VTE in patients randomized in the Screening for Occult Malignancy in Patients with Idiopathic Venous Thromboembolism (SOME) trial. A total of 33 (3.9%; 95% CI, 2.8%-5.4%) out of the 854 included patients received a new diagnosis of cancer at 1-year follow-up. Age ≥ 60 years (hazard ratio [HR], 3.11; 95% CI, 1.41-6.89; ITALIC! P= .005), previous provoked VTE (HR, 3.20; 95% CI, 1.19-8.62; ITALIC! P= .022), and current smoker status (HR, 2.80; 95% CI, 1.24-6.33; ITALIC! P= .014) were associated with occult cancer detection. Age, prior provoked VTE, and smoking status may be important predictors of occult cancer detection in patients with first unprovoked VTE. This trial was registered atwww.clinicaltrials.govas #NCT00773448. PMID:26817957

  6. Rs488087 single nucleotide polymorphism as predictive risk factor for pancreatic cancers.

    PubMed

    Martinez, Emmanuelle; Silvy, Françoise; Fina, Fréderic; Bartoli, Marc; Krahn, Martin; Barlesi, Fabrice; Figarella-Branger, Dominique; Iovanna, Juan; Laugier, René; Ouaissi, Mehdi; Lombardo, Dominique; Mas, Eric

    2015-11-24

    Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a devastating disease progressing asymptomatically until death within months after diagnosis. Defining at-risk populations should promote its earlier diagnosis and hence also avoid its development. Considering the known involvement in pancreatic disease of exon 11 of the bile salt-dependent lipase (BSDL) gene that encodes variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) sequences, we hypothesized upon the existence of a genetic link between predisposition to PC and mutations in VNTR loci. To test this, BSDL VNTR were amplified by touchdown-PCR performed on genomic DNA extracted from cancer tissue or blood samples from a French patient cohort and amplicons were Sanger sequenced. A robust method using probes for droplet digital (dd)-PCR was designed to discriminate the C/C major from C/T or T/T minor genotypes. We report that the c.1719C > T transition (SNP rs488087) present in BSDL VNTR may be a useful marker for defining a population at risk of developing PC (occurrence: 63.90% in the PC versus 27.30% in the control group). The odds ratio of 4.7 for the T allele was larger than those already determined for other SNPs suspected to be predictive of PC. Further studies on tumor pancreatic tissue suggested that a germline T allele may favor Kras G12R/G12D somatic mutations which represent negative prognostic factors associated with reduced survival. We propose that the detection of the T allele in rs488087 SNP should lead to an in-depth follow-up of patients in whom an association with other potential risk factors of pancreatic cancer may be present. PMID:26498142

  7. Rs488087 single nucleotide polymorphism as predictive risk factor for pancreatic cancers

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Emmanuelle; Silvy, Françoise; Fina, Fréderic; Bartoli, Marc; Krahn, Martin; Barlesi, Fabrice; Figarella-Branger, Dominique; Iovanna, Juan; Laugier, René; Ouaissi, Mehdi; Lombardo, Dominique; Mas, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a devastating disease progressing asymptomatically until death within months after diagnosis. Defining at-risk populations should promote its earlier diagnosis and hence also avoid its development. Considering the known involvement in pancreatic disease of exon 11 of the bile salt-dependent lipase (BSDL) gene that encodes variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) sequences, we hypothesized upon the existence of a genetic link between predisposition to PC and mutations in VNTR loci. To test this, BSDL VNTR were amplified by touchdown-PCR performed on genomic DNA extracted from cancer tissue or blood samples from a French patient cohort and amplicons were Sanger sequenced. A robust method using probes for droplet digital (dd)-PCR was designed to discriminate the C/C major from C/T or T/T minor genotypes. We report that the c.1719C > T transition (SNP rs488087) present in BSDL VNTR may be a useful marker for defining a population at risk of developing PC (occurrence: 63.90% in the PC versus 27.30% in the control group). The odds ratio of 4.7 for the T allele was larger than those already determined for other SNPs suspected to be predictive of PC. Further studies on tumor pancreatic tissue suggested that a germline T allele may favor Kras G12R/G12D somatic mutations which represent negative prognostic factors associated with reduced survival. We propose that the detection of the T allele in rs488087 SNP should lead to an in-depth follow-up of patients in whom an association with other potential risk factors of pancreatic cancer may be present. PMID:26498142

  8. Biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors predicting low back functional impairment among furniture distribution employees

    PubMed Central

    Ferguson, Sue A.; Allread, W. Gary; Burr, Deborah L.; Heaney, Catherine; Marras, William S.

    2013-01-01

    Background Biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors for low back disorder have been studied extensively however few researchers have examined all three risk factors. The objective of this was to develop a low back disorder risk model in furniture distribution workers using biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors. Methods This was a prospective study with a six month follow-up time. There were 454 subjects at 9 furniture distribution facilities enrolled in the study. Biomechanical exposure was evaluated using the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (2001) lifting threshold limit values for low back injury risk. Psychosocial and individual risk factors were evaluated via questionnaires. Low back health functional status was measured using the lumbar motion monitor. Low back disorder cases were defined as a loss of low back functional performance of −0.14 or more. Findings There were 92 cases of meaningful loss in low back functional performance and 185 non cases. A multivariate logistic regression model included baseline functional performance probability, facility, perceived workload, intermediated reach distance number of exertions above threshold limit values, job tenure manual material handling, and age combined to provide a model sensitivity of 68.5% and specificity of 71.9%. Interpretation: The results of this study indicate which biomechanical, individual and psychosocial risk factors are important as well as how much of each risk factor is too much resulting in increased risk of low back disorder among furniture distribution workers. PMID:21955915

  9. Kidney measures beyond traditional risk factors for cardiovascular prediction: A collaborative meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Matsushita, Kunihiro; Coresh, Josef; Sang, Yingying; Chalmers, John; Fox, Caroline; Guallar, Eliseo; Jafar, Tazeen; Jassal, Simerjot K.; Landman, Gijs W.D.; Muntner, Paul; Roderick, Paul; Sairenchi, Toshimi; Schöttker, Ben; Shankar, Anoop; Shlipak, Michael; Tonelli, Marcello; Townend, Jonathan; van Zuilen, Arjan; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Yamashita, Kentaro; Gansevoort, Ron; Sarnak, Mark; Warnock, David G.; Woodward, Mark; Ärnlöv, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Background The utility of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria for cardiovascular prediction is controversial. Methods We meta-analyzed individual-level data from 24 cohorts (with a median follow-up time longer than 4 years, varying from 4.2 to 19.0 years) in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (637,315 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease) and assessed C-statistic difference and reclassification improvement for cardiovascular mortality and fatal and non-fatal cases of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure in 5-year timeframe, contrasting prediction models consisting of traditional risk factors with and without creatinine-based eGFR and/or albuminuria (either albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ACR] or semi-quantitative dipstick proteinuria). Findings The addition of eGFR and ACR significantly improved the discrimination of cardiovascular outcomes beyond traditional risk factors in general populations, but the improvement was greater with ACR than with eGFR and more evident for cardiovascular mortality (c-statistic difference 0.0139 [95%CI 0.0105–0.0174] and 0.0065 [0.0042–0.0088], respectively) and heart failure (0.0196 [0.0108–0.0284] and 0.0109 [0.0059–0.0159]) than for coronary disease (0.0048 [0.0029–0.0067] and 0.0036 [0.0019–0.0054]) and stroke (0.0105 [0.0058–0.0151] and 0.0036 [0.0004–0.0069]). Dipstick proteinuria demonstrated smaller improvement than ACR. The discrimination improvement with kidney measures was especially evident in individuals with diabetes or hypertension but remained significant with ACR for cardiovascular mortality and heart failure in those without either of these conditions. In participants with chronic kidney disease (CKD), the combination of eGFR and ACR for risk discrimination outperformed most single traditional predictors; the c-statistic for cardiovascular mortality declined by 0.023 [0.016–0.030] vs. <0.007 when omitting eGFR and ACR vs. any single

  10. Procedural justice versus risk factors for offending: predicting recidivism in youth.

    PubMed

    Penner, Erika K; Viljoen, Jodi L; Douglas, Kevin S; Roesch, Ronald

    2014-06-01

    Theories of procedural justice suggest that individuals who experience respectful and fair legal decision-making procedures are more likely to believe in the legitimacy of the law and, in turn, are less likely to reoffend. However, few studies have examined these relationships in youth. To begin to fill this gap in the literature, in the current study, the authors studied 92 youth (67 male, 25 female) on probation regarding their perceptions of procedural justice and legitimacy, and then monitored their offending over the subsequent 6 months. Results indicated that perceptions of procedural justice predicted self-reported offending at 3 months but not at 6 months, and that youths' beliefs about the legitimacy of the law did not mediate this relationship. Furthermore, procedural justice continued to account for unique variance in self-reported offending over and above the predictive power of well-established risk factors for offending (i.e., peer delinquency, substance abuse, psychopathy, and age at first contact with the law). Theoretically, the current study provides evidence that models of procedural justice developed for adults are only partially replicated in a sample of youth; practically, this research suggests that by treating adolescents in a fair and just manner, justice professionals may be able to reduce the likelihood that adolescents will reoffend, at least in the short term. PMID:24127893

  11. Clinical factors predicting risk for aspiration and respiratory aspiration among patients with Stroke1

    PubMed Central

    Oliveira, Ana Railka de Souza; Costa, Alice Gabrielle de Sousa; Morais, Huana Carolina Cândido; Cavalcante, Tahissa Frota; Lopes, Marcos Venícios de Oliveira; de Araujo, Thelma Leite

    2015-01-01

    Objective: to investigate the association of risk factors with the Risk for aspiration nursing diagnosis and respiratory aspiration. Method: cross-sectional study assessing 105 patients with stroke. The instrument used to collect data addressing sociodemographic information, clinical variables and risk factors for Risk for aspiration. The clinical judgments of three expert RNs were used to establish the diagnosis. The relationship between variables and strength of association using Odds Ratio (OR) was verified both in regard to Risk for aspiration and respiratory aspiration. Results: risk for aspiration was present in 34.3% of the patients and aspiration in 30.5%. The following stood out among the risk factors: Dysphagia, Impaired or absent gag reflex, Neurological disorders, and Impaired physical mobility, all of which were statistically associated with Risk for aspiration. Note that patients who develop such a diagnosis were seven times more likely to develop respiratory aspiration. Conclusion: dysphagia, Impaired or absent gag reflex were the best predictors both for Risk for aspiration and respiratory aspiration. PMID:26039291

  12. Predicting high-risk versus higher-risk substance use during late adolescence from early adolescent risk factors using Latent Class Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lamont, Andrea E.; Woodlief, Darren; Malone, Patrick S.

    2013-01-01

    Much of the existing risk factor literature focuses on identifying predictors of low-levels of substance use versus higher-levels of substance use. In this paper, we explore more nuanced patterns of alcohol, tobacco, and other drug (ATOD) use during late adolescence. Our aims were to: 1) identify subgroups of youth with qualitatively different patterns of ATOD use; and 2) explore whether membership among qualitatively distinct, high-risk classes could be predicted based on early adolescent risk factors. Data came from a selected subsample of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (n = 1,689). Predictors were measured when youth were about 12 years old; ATOD use was assessed when youth were aged 17 years. Results showed that adolescent ATOD use is not a homogenous behavior. Four distinct classes of adolescent ATOD users were derived. Each class had a qualitatively distinct and discriminable pattern of ATOD use. Ecological predictors were shown to differentiate between latent classes, with peer factors playing a particularly important role in differentiating between high-risk and higher-risk users. Implications for prevention and limitations are discussed. PMID:24511308

  13. Predictive risk factors for chronic regional and multisite musculoskeletal pain: a 5-year prospective study in a working population.

    PubMed

    Herin, Fabrice; Vézina, Michel; Thaon, Isabelle; Soulat, Jean-Marc; Paris, Christophe

    2014-05-01

    The role of psychosocial and physical factors in the development of musculoskeletal pain (MSP) has now been clearly demonstrated. However, it is unclear whether these factors contribute to specific regional MSP or to multisite pain. The main goal of this study was to assess the impact of work-related factors according to gender on the development of regional and multisite MSP. A total of 12,591 subjects (65% men and 35% women) who were born in 1938, 1943, 1948, and 1953 and were participating in a French longitudinal prospective epidemiological survey (ESTEV) in 1990 to 1995 were eligible. Personal factors and work exposure were assessed by self-administered questionnaires. Statistical associations between chronic MSP (regional body site or multisite), personal factors, and occupational factors were analyzed using logistic regression modeling. The incidence of regional MSP and multisite pain in 1995 were, respectively, 17% and 25.6%. For women, highly repetitive movements predicted neck/shoulder pain; posture and vibrations predicted arm and low back pain; and effort with tools predicted arm pain. For men, forceful effort and vibrations predicted neck/shoulder pain; posture and forceful effort predicted lower limb and low back pain; and forceful effort and effort with tools predicted arm pain. Physical constraints (ie, forceful effort or vibrations) were associated with multisite pain in both genders. Only for women, psychological factors were risk factors predictive of upper limb pain and in 3 or 4 painful anatomical sites. These results support the hypothesis that some physical and psychological work-related factors are predictive of regional or multisite MSP but differ according to gender. Gender differences and risk factors for work-related musculoskeletal pain should be also taken into account to more effectively target preventive measures. PMID:24561229

  14. Factors affecting paddy soil arsenic concentration in Bangladesh: prediction and uncertainty of geostatistical risk mapping.

    PubMed

    Ahmed, Zia U; Panaullah, Golam M; DeGloria, Stephen D; Duxbury, John M

    2011-12-15

    Knowledge of the spatial correlation of soil arsenic (As) concentrations with environmental variables is needed to assess the nature and extent of the risk of As contamination from irrigation water in Bangladesh. We analyzed 263 paired groundwater and paddy soil samples covering highland (HL) and medium highland-1 (MHL-1) land types for geostatistical mapping of soil As and delineation of As contaminated areas in Tala Upazilla, Satkhira district. We also collected 74 non-rice soil samples to assess the baseline concentration of soil As for this area. The mean soil As concentrations (mg/kg) for different land types under rice and non-rice crops were: rice-MHL-1 (21.2)>rice-HL (14.1)>non-rice-MHL-1 (11.9)>non-rice-HL (7.2). Multiple regression analyses showed that irrigation water As, Fe, land elevation and years of tubewell operation are the important factors affecting the concentrations of As in HL paddy soils. Only years of tubewell operation affected As concentration in the MHL-1 paddy soils. Quantitatively similar increases in soil As above the estimated baseline-As concentration were observed for rice soils on HL and MHL-1 after 6-8 years of groundwater irrigation, implying strong retention of As added in irrigation water in both land types. Application of single geostatistical methods with secondary variables such as regression kriging (RK) and ordinary co-kriging (OCK) gave little improvement in prediction of soil As over ordinary kriging (OK). Comparing single prediction methods, kriging within strata (KWS), the combination of RK for HL and OCK for MHL-1, gave more accurate soil As predictions and showed the lowest misclassification of declaring a location "contaminated" with respect to 14.8 mg As/kg, the highest value obtained for the baseline soil As concentration. Prediction of soil As buildup over time indicated that 75% or the soils cropped to rice would contain at least 30 mg/L As by the year 2020. PMID:22055452

  15. Risk factor model to predict a missed clinic appointment in an urban, academic, and underserved setting.

    PubMed

    Torres, Orlando; Rothberg, Michael B; Garb, Jane; Ogunneye, Owolabi; Onyema, Judepatricks; Higgins, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    In the chronic care model, a missed appointment decreases continuity, adversely affects practice efficiency, and can harm quality of care. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of a missed appointment and develop a model to predict an individual's likelihood of missing an appointment. The research team performed a retrospective study in an urban, academic, underserved outpatient internal medicine clinic from January 2008 to June 2011. A missed appointment was defined as either a "no-show" or cancellation within 24 hours of the appointment time. Both patient and visit variables were considered. The patient population was randomly divided into derivation and validation sets (70/30). A logistic model from the derivation set was applied in the validation set. During the period of study, 11,546 patients generated 163,554 encounters; 45% of appointments in the derivation sample were missed. In the logistic model, percent previously missed appointments, wait time from booking to appointment, season, day of the week, provider type, and patient age, sex, and language proficiency were all associated with a missed appointment. The strongest predictors were percentage of previously missed appointments and wait time. Older age and non-English proficiency both decreased the likelihood of missing an appointment. In the validation set, the model had a c-statistic of 0.71, and showed no gross lack of fit (P=0.63), indicating acceptable calibration. A simple risk factor model can assist in predicting the likelihood that an individual patient will miss an appointment. PMID:25299396

  16. Testing a Model of Environmental Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Middle and High School Students' Academic Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peters, S. Colby; Woolley, Michael E.

    2015-01-01

    Data from the School Success Profile generated by 19,228 middle and high school students were organized into three broad categories of risk and protective factors--control, support, and challenge--to examine the relative and combined power of aggregate scale scores in each category so as to predict academic success. It was hypothesized that higher…

  17. Dynamic prediction model and risk assessment chart for cardiovascular disease based on on-treatment blood pressure and baseline risk factors.

    PubMed

    Teramukai, Satoshi; Okuda, Yasuyuki; Miyazaki, Shigeru; Kawamori, Ryuzo; Shirayama, Masayuki; Teramoto, Tamio

    2016-02-01

    For patients with hypertension, an individual risk prediction tool for cardiovascular disease based on on-treatment blood pressure is needed and would be useful. The objective of this study was to establish a 3-year risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease based on data from 13 052 patients with no history of cardiovascular disease in the Olmesartan Mega study to determine the relationship between Cardiovascular Endpoints and Blood Pressure Goal Achievement study. To develop dynamic prediction models including on-treatment blood pressure, a Cox proportional hazard model using the sliding landmarking method with three landmark points (6, 12 and 18 months from baseline) was used. The prediction model included blood pressure (<130/85 mm Hg, ⩾130/85  to <140/90 mm Hg, ⩾140/90 to <160/100 mm Hg and ⩾160/100 mm Hg) as a time-dependent covariate and well-known baseline risk factors (sex, age, smoking, family history of coronary artery disease and diabetes) as covariates. The 3-year risk assessment chart was constructed using the combination of all risk factors in the prediction model, and six different colors were displayed on each chart corresponding to the predicted probability of cardiovascular disease. Judging from the chart, if an elderly man with diabetes and other risk factors had a blood pressure of <130/85 mm Hg at 6 months, the risk of cardiovascular disease would be 8.0%, whereas the risk would be 8.6% if he had a blood pressure of ⩾130/85 to <140/90 mm Hg. The risk assessment chart developed from the large-scale observational study data would help physicians to more easily assess the cardiovascular disease risk for hypertensive patients on antihypertensive treatments. PMID:26606874

  18. Comparison of the Combined Obesity Indices to Predict Cardiovascular Diseases Risk Factors and Metabolic Syndrome in Northeast China

    PubMed Central

    Tao, Yuchun; Yu, Jianxing; Tao, Yuhui; Pang, Hui; Yu, Yang; Yu, Yaqin; Jin, Lina

    2016-01-01

    Background: Obesity is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors (hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes) and metabolic syndrome (MetS), and it may be flawed that most studies only use one obesity index to predict these risk factors. Therefore, our study aims to compare the various combined obesity indices systematically, and to find the optimal combined obesity indices to predict CVD risk factors and MetS. Methods: A total of 16,766 participants aged 18–79 years old were recruited in Jilin Province in 2012. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curves and multiple logistic regressions were used to evaluate the predictive capacity of the combined obesity indices for CVD risk factors and MetS. Results: The adjusted area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) with two combined obesity indices had been improved up to 19.45%, compared with one single obesity index. In addition, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were the optimal combinations, where the AUROC (95% confidence interval (CI)) for hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes and MetS in males were 0.730 (0.718, 0.740), 0.694 (0.682, 0.706), 0.725 (0.709, 0.742) and 0.820 (0.810, 0.830), and in females were 0.790 (0.780, 0.799), 0.727 (0.717, 0.738), 0.746 (0.731, 0.761) and 0.828 (0.820, 0.837), respectively. Conclusions: The more abnormal obesity indices that one has the higher the risk for CVD risk factors and MetS, especially in males. In addition, the combined obesity indices have better predictions than one obesity index, where BMI and WC are the optimal combinations. PMID:27517940

  19. Risk and Protective Factors Predictive of Adolescent Pregnancy: A Longitudinal, Prospective Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    East, Patricia L.; Khoo, Siek Toon; Reyes, Barbara T.

    2006-01-01

    One hundred twenty-eight Latina and African American girls from high-risk environments (e.g., poverty, family history of teen parenting, etc.) were studied from age 13 through age 19 to prospectively identify the protective factors that might guard against teenage pregnancy. Results indicated that involved and strict parenting during early…

  20. Social-Relational Risk Factors for Predicting Elder Physical Abuse: An Ecological Bi-Focal Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Heydrich, Levente; Schiamberg, Lawrence B.; Chee, Grace

    2012-01-01

    Annually in the United States, 1 to 5 million older adults, 65 and above, are physically or sexually injured or mistreated by their caregivers in family settings. This study examined the prevalence and risk factors involved in elder physical abuse by adult child caregivers, moving from the immediate elderly parent/adult child relationship context…

  1. Factors Motivating Individuals to Consider Genetic Testing for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction.

    PubMed

    Wessel, Jennifer; Gupta, Jyoti; de Groot, Mary

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify attitudes and perceptions of willingness to participate in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction in the general population. Adults (n = 598) were surveyed on attitudes about utilizing genetic testing to predict future risk of T2D. Participants were recruited from public libraries (53%), online registry (37%) and a safety net hospital emergency department (10%). Respondents were 37 ± 11 years old, primarily White (54%), female (69%), college educated (46%), with an annual income ≥$25,000 (56%). Half of participants were interested in genetic testing for T2D (52%) and 81% agreed/strongly agreed genetic testing should be available to the public. Only 57% of individuals knew T2D is preventable. A multivariate model to predict interest in genetic testing was adjusted for age, gender, recruitment location and BMI; significant predictors were motivation (high perceived personal risk of T2D [OR = 4.38 (1.76, 10.9)]; family history [OR = 2.56 (1.46, 4.48)]; desire to know risk prior to disease onset [OR = 3.25 (1.94, 5.42)]; and knowing T2D is preventable [OR = 2.11 (1.24, 3.60)], intention (if the cost is free [OR = 10.2 (4.27, 24.6)]; and learning T2D is preventable [OR = 5.18 (1.95, 13.7)]) and trust of genetic testing results [OR = 0.03 (0.003, 0.30)]. Individuals are interested in genetic testing for T2D risk which offers unique information that is personalized. Financial accessibility, validity of the test and availability of diabetes prevention programs were identified as predictors of interest in T2D testing. PMID:26789839

  2. Factors Motivating Individuals to Consider Genetic Testing for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Wessel, Jennifer; Gupta, Jyoti; de Groot, Mary

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify attitudes and perceptions of willingness to participate in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction in the general population. Adults (n = 598) were surveyed on attitudes about utilizing genetic testing to predict future risk of T2D. Participants were recruited from public libraries (53%), online registry (37%) and a safety net hospital emergency department (10%). Respondents were 37±11 years old, primarily White (54%), female (69%), college educated (46%), with an annual income ≥$25,000 (56%). Half of participants were interested in genetic testing for T2D (52%) and 81% agreed/strongly agreed genetic testing should be available to the public. Only 57% of individuals knew T2D is preventable. A multivariate model to predict interest in genetic testing was adjusted for age, gender, recruitment location and BMI; significant predictors were motivation (high perceived personal risk of T2D [OR = 4.38 (1.76, 10.9)]; family history [OR = 2.56 (1.46, 4.48)]; desire to know risk prior to disease onset [OR = 3.25 (1.94, 5.42)]; and knowing T2D is preventable [OR = 2.11 (1.24, 3.60)], intention (if the cost is free [OR = 10.2 (4.27, 24.6)]; and learning T2D is preventable [OR = 5.18 (1.95, 13.7)]) and trust of genetic testing results [OR = 0.03 (0.003, 0.30)]. Individuals are interested in genetic testing for T2D risk which offers unique information that is personalized. Financial accessibility, validity of the test and availability of diabetes prevention programs were identified as predictors of interest in T2D testing. PMID:26789839

  3. Risk factors for adolescent sex offender recidivism: evaluation of predictive factors and comparison of three groups based upon victim type.

    PubMed

    Parks, Gregory A; Bard, David E

    2006-10-01

    This study investigated differences in recidivism risk factors and traits associated with psychopathy among 3 groups of male adolescent sexual offenders (N=156): offenders against children, offenders against peers or adults, and mixed type offenders. Furthermore, those same variables were examined for their association with sexual and nonsexual recidivism and the 3 groups were compared for differences in rates of recidivism. Based upon both juvenile and adult recidivism data, 6.4% of the sample reoffended sexually and 30.1% reoffended nonsexually. Retrospective risk assessments were completed using the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (JSOAP-II) and the Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version (PCL:YV). Comparisons of the 3 preexisting groups for differences on scale and factor scores were conducted using analyses of variance (ANOVAs). Differences among groups for recidivism were measured using survival curve analysis. Associations between risk scales and recidivism were measured using Cox regression analyses. Results suggest significant differences among the 3 offender groups on multiple scales of the JSOAP-II and PCL:YV, with mixed type offenders consistently producing higher risk scores as compared to those who exclusively offend against children or peers/adults. The Impulsive/Antisocial Behavior scale of the JSOAP-II and the Interpersonal and Antisocial factors of the PCL:YV were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. The Behavioral and Antisocial factors of the PCL:YV were significant predictors of nonsexual recidivism. Results supported previous research indicating that most adolescents who sexually offend do not continue offending into adulthood. Such results can lead to improved treatment by targeting specific risk factors for intervention and better use of risk management resources in the community, while preserving the most restrictive treatment options for the highest risk offenders. PMID:17136626

  4. INFORMING INTERVENTIONS: THE IMPORTANCE OF CONTEXTUAL FACTORS IN THE PREDICTION OF SEXUAL RISK BEHAVIORS AMONG TRANSGENDER WOMEN

    PubMed Central

    Sevelius, Jae M.; Reznick, Olga Grinstead; Hart, Stacey L.; Schwarcz, Sandy

    2015-01-01

    This study identifies contextual factors that predict risky sexual behavior among 153 transgender women who participated in a structured survey soliciting information on demographics, substance use, HIV status, risk behaviors, and other health and psychosocial factors. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine predictors. Inconsistent condom use was associated with stimulant use, unstable housing, and recruitment site. Substance use during sex was associated with unstable housing and stimulant use. Sex work was associated with hormone use, gender confirming surgeries, and younger age. When developing interventions for transgender women, it may be useful to focus on predictors of risk behavior rather than predictors of current HIV status (i.e., race/ethnicity as “risk factor”), because these behaviors are the target of interventions aimed at sexual risk reduction. Implications include potential benefits of context-specific interventions, structural interventions addressing barriers to housing and health care, and culturally specific substance abuse treatment programs for transgender women. PMID:19397434

  5. Using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) to predict the risk of heat related deaths.

    PubMed

    Langlois, Neil; Herbst, Jonathon; Mason, Kerryn; Nairn, John; Byard, Roger W

    2013-07-01

    Extremes of climate are not uncommon in Australia and heatwaves are not infrequent. Periods of high ambient temperature may result in clusters of heat related deaths, which may place strain on forensic facilities. This paper describes the formulation of the Excess Heat Factor using meteorological data to provide a means of predicting death resulting from periods of extreme heat stress. The 2009 South Australian heatwave had the highest ranked Excess Heat Factor in Adelaide's records. There were 58 heat related deaths, with the bulk of the heat related deaths following the peak Excess Heat Factor value (144 °C(2)). The 2008 heatwave had a lower peak Excess Heat Factor value (36 °C(2)); there was only one heat related death, which followed the peak in the Excess Heat Factor. It is proposed that calculation of the Excess Heat Factor from meteorological data could provide a means to predict and identify heat related deaths resulting from extreme weather conditions. PMID:23756508

  6. A method to construct a points system to predict cardiovascular disease considering repeated measures of risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Carbayo-Herencia, Julio Antonio; Vigo, Maria Isabel; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Current predictive models for cardiovascular disease based on points systems use the baseline situation of the risk factors as independent variables. These models do not take into account the variability of the risk factors over time. Predictive models for other types of disease also exist that do consider the temporal variability of a single biological marker in addition to the baseline variables. However, due to their complexity these other models are not used in daily clinical practice. Bearing in mind the clinical relevance of these issues and that cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide we show the properties and viability of a new methodological alternative for constructing cardiovascular risk scores to make predictions of cardiovascular disease with repeated measures of the risk factors and retaining the simplicity of the points systems so often used in clinical practice (construction, statistical validation by simulation and explanation of potential utilization). We have also applied the system clinically upon a set of simulated data solely to help readers understand the procedure constructed. PMID:26893963

  7. Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... has been linked to some cancers: Links between air pollution and cancer risk have been found. These include ... between lung cancer and secondhand tobacco smoke , outdoor air pollution, and asbestos . Drinking water that contains a large ...

  8. Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... heart disease and stroke. However, certain groups—including African Americans and older individuals—are at higher risk ... life expectancy found among minorities. As of 2007, African American men were 30% more likely to die ...

  9. Risk Factors and Post-Resection Independent Predictive Score for the Recurrence of Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Poon, Ronnie Tung-Ping; Fong, Daniel Yee-Tak; Chui, Ada Hang-Wai; Seto, Wai-Kay; Fung, James Yan-Yue; Chan, Albert Chi-Yan; Yuen, John Chi-Hang; Tiu, Randal; Choi, Olivia; Lai, Ching-Lung; Yuen, Man-Fung

    2016-01-01

    Background Independent risk factors associated with hepatitis B (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after resection remains unknown. An accurate risk score for HCC recurrence is lacking. Methods We prospectively followed up 200 patients who underwent liver resection for HBV-related HCC for at least 2 years. Demographic, biochemical, tumor, virological and anti-viral treatment factors were analyzed to identify independent risk factors associated with recurrence after resection and a risk score for HCC recurrence formulated. Results Two hundred patients (80% male) who underwent liver resection for HBV-related HCC were recruited. The median time of recurrence was 184 weeks (IQR 52–207 weeks) for the entire cohort and 100 patients (50%) developed HCC recurrence. Stepwise Cox regression analysis identified that one-month post resection HBV DNA >20,000 IU/mL (p = 0.019; relative risk (RR) 1.67; 95% confidence interval (C.I.): 1.09–2.57), the presence of lymphovascular permeation (p<0.001; RR 2.69; 95% C.I.: 1.75–4.12), microsatellite lesions (p<0.001; RR 2.86; 95% C.I.: 1.82–4.51), and AFP >100ng/mL before resection (p = 0.021; RR 1.63; 95% C.I.: 1.08–2.47) were independently associated with HCC recurrence. Antiviral treatment before resection (p = 0.024; RR 0.1; 95% C.I.: 0.01–0.74) was independently associated with reduced risk of HCC recurrence. A post-resection independent predictive score (PRIPS) was derived and validated with sensitivity of 75.3% and 60.6% and specificity of 55.7% and 79.2%, to predict the 1- and 3-year risks for the HCC recurrence respectively with the hazard ratio of 2.71 (95% C.I.: 2.12–3.48; p<0.001). The AUC for the 1- and 3-year prediction were 0.675 (95% C.I.: 0.6–0.78) and 0.746 (95% C.I.: 0.69–0.82) respectively. Conclusion Several tumor, virological and biochemical factors were associated with a higher cumulative risk of HCC recurrence after resection. PRIPS was derived for more accurate risk assessment

  10. A Predictive Risk Model for A(H7N9) Human Infections Based on Spatial-Temporal Autocorrelation and Risk Factors: China, 2013-2014.

    PubMed

    Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quan-Li; Yang, Yu-Lian

    2015-12-01

    This study investigated the spatial distribution, spatial autocorrelation, temporal cluster, spatial-temporal autocorrelation and probable risk factors of H7N9 outbreaks in humans from March 2013 to December 2014 in China. The results showed that the epidemic spread with significant spatial-temporal autocorrelation. In order to describe the spatial-temporal autocorrelation of H7N9, an improved model was developed by introducing a spatial-temporal factor in this paper. Logistic regression analyses were utilized to investigate the risk factors associated with their distribution, and nine risk factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of A(H7N9) human infections: the spatial-temporal factor φ (OR = 2546669.382, p < 0.001), migration route (OR = 0.993, p < 0.01), river (OR = 0.861, p < 0.001), lake(OR = 0.992, p < 0.001), road (OR = 0.906, p < 0.001), railway (OR = 0.980, p < 0.001), temperature (OR = 1.170, p < 0.01), precipitation (OR = 0.615, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (OR = 1.337, p < 0.001). The improved model obtained a better prediction performance and a higher fitting accuracy than the traditional model: in the improved model 90.1% (91/101) of the cases during February 2014 occurred in the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) of the predictive risk map, whereas 44.6% (45/101) of which overlaid on the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) for the traditional model, and the fitting accuracy of the improved model was 91.6% which was superior to the traditional model (86.1%). The predictive risk map generated based on the improved model revealed that the east and southeast of China were the high risk areas of A(H7N9) human infections in February 2014. These results provided baseline data for the control and prevention of future human infections. PMID:26633446

  11. A Predictive Risk Model for A(H7N9) Human Infections Based on Spatial-Temporal Autocorrelation and Risk Factors: China, 2013–2014

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quan-Li; Yang, Yu-Lian

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the spatial distribution, spatial autocorrelation, temporal cluster, spatial-temporal autocorrelation and probable risk factors of H7N9 outbreaks in humans from March 2013 to December 2014 in China. The results showed that the epidemic spread with significant spatial-temporal autocorrelation. In order to describe the spatial-temporal autocorrelation of H7N9, an improved model was developed by introducing a spatial-temporal factor in this paper. Logistic regression analyses were utilized to investigate the risk factors associated with their distribution, and nine risk factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of A(H7N9) human infections: the spatial-temporal factor φ (OR = 2546669.382, p < 0.001), migration route (OR = 0.993, p < 0.01), river (OR = 0.861, p < 0.001), lake(OR = 0.992, p < 0.001), road (OR = 0.906, p < 0.001), railway (OR = 0.980, p < 0.001), temperature (OR = 1.170, p < 0.01), precipitation (OR = 0.615, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (OR = 1.337, p < 0.001). The improved model obtained a better prediction performance and a higher fitting accuracy than the traditional model: in the improved model 90.1% (91/101) of the cases during February 2014 occurred in the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) of the predictive risk map, whereas 44.6% (45/101) of which overlaid on the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) for the traditional model, and the fitting accuracy of the improved model was 91.6% which was superior to the traditional model (86.1%). The predictive risk map generated based on the improved model revealed that the east and southeast of China were the high risk areas of A(H7N9) human infections in February 2014. These results provided baseline data for the control and prevention of future human infections. PMID:26633446

  12. Risk prediction for invasive candidiasis

    PubMed Central

    Ahmed, Armin; Azim, Afzal; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Marak, K. Rungmei S. K.; Gurjar, Mohan

    2014-01-01

    Over past few years, treatment of invasive candidiasis (IC) has evolved from targeted therapy to prophylaxis, pre-emptive and empirical therapy. Numerous predisposing factors for IC have been grouped together in various combinations to design risk prediction models. These models in general have shown good negative predictive value, but poor positive predictive value. They are useful in selecting the population which is less likely to benefit from empirical antifungal therapy and thus prevent overuse of antifungal agents. Current article deals with various risk prediction models for IC and their external validation studies. PMID:25316979

  13. Risk factors and a predictive model for under-five mortality in Nigeria: evidence from Nigeria demographic and health survey

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Under-5 mortality is a major public health challenge in developing countries. It is essential to identify determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) childhood mortality because these will assist in formulating appropriate health programmes and policies in order to meet the United Nations MDG goal. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model and identify maternal, child, family and other risk factors associated U5M in Nigeria. Methods Population-based cross-sectional study which explored 2008 demographic and health survey of Nigeria (NDHS) with multivariable logistic regression. Likelihood Ratio Test, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit and Variance Inflation Factor were used to check the fit of the model and the predictive power of the model was assessed with Receiver Operating Curve (ROC curve). Results This study yielded an excellent predictive model which revealed that the likelihood of U5M among the children of mothers that had their first marriage at age 20-24 years and ≥ 25 years declined by 20% and 30% respectively compared to children of those that married before the age of 15 years. Also, the following factors reduced odds of U5M: health seeking behaviour, breastfeeding children for > 18 months, use of contraception, small family size, having one wife, low birth order, normal birth weight, child spacing, living in urban areas, and good sanitation. Conclusions This study has revealed that maternal, child, family and other factors were important risk factors of U5M in Nigeria. This study has identified important risk factors that will assist in formulating policies that will improve child survival. PMID:22373182

  14. Latent classes of heroin and cocaine users predict unique HIV/HCV risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Harrell, PT; Mancha, B; Petras, H; Trenz, R; Latimer, WW

    2011-01-01

    Background Patterns of heroin and cocaine use vary and may be associated with unique risk factors for bloodborne infections. Methods Latent class analysis identified sub-populations of 552 heroin and cocaine users in Baltimore, Maryland. Using latent class regression, these classes were analyzed for associations with demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, Hepatitis C, and HIV. Results Three classes were found: Crack / Nasal-Heroin users (43.5%), Polysubstance users (34.8%), and Heroin Injectors (21.8%). Compared to Polysubstance users, Crack / Nasal-Heroin users were almost 7 times more likely to identify as Black (OR = 6.97, 95% CI = 4.35-11.2). Sharing needles was over 2.5 times more likely among Polysubstance users than among Heroin Injectors (OR = 2.66, 95% CI = 1.49-4.75). Crack/Nasal-Heroin users were 2.5 times more likely than Polysubstance users to exchange drugs for sex (OR = 2.50, 95% CI = 1.22-5.13). Crack/Nasal-Heroin users were less likely than Heroin Injectors to have Hepatitis C (OR = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.06-0.18), but no significant differences were found for HIV. Conclusions Subpopulations of cocaine and heroin users differed in demographic classifications, HIV-risk behaviors, and Hepatitis C infection. All subpopulations included substantial numbers of HIV-positive individuals. Findings provide further evidence that non-injection drug users face significant infectious disease risk. PMID:22030276

  15. Predictive risk factors of free flap thrombosis in breast reconstruction surgery.

    PubMed

    Masoomi, Hossein; Clark, Emily G; Paydar, Keyianoosh Z; Evans, Gregory R D; Nguyen, Audrey; Kobayashi, Mark R; Wirth, Garrett A

    2014-11-01

    Vascular thrombosis is one of the major postoperative complications of free flap microvascular breast reconstruction operations. It is associated with higher morbidity, higher cost, increased length of hospital stay, and potentially flap loss. Our purpose is to evaluate the rate of this complication and whether patient characteristics play a role. Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database, we examined the clinical data of patients who underwent free flap breast reconstruction between 2009 and 2010 in the United States. Multivariate and univariate regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors of flap thrombosis. A total of 15,211 patients underwent free flap breast reconstruction surgery (immediate reconstruction: 43%). The most common flap was the free deep inferior epigastric perforator (DIEP) flap (53.6%), followed by free transverse rectus abdominis myocutaneous (TRAM) flap (43.1%), free superficial inferior epigastric artery (SIEA) flap (2%), and free gluteal artery perforator (GAP) flap (1.3%). The overall rate of flap thrombosis was 2.4 %, with the highest rate seen in the SIEA group (11.4%) and the lowest in the TRAM group (1.7%). Peripheral vascular disease (adjusted odds ration [AOR] 10.61), SIEA flap (AOR, 4.76) and delayed reconstruction (AOR, 1.42) were found to be statistically significant risk factors for flap thrombosis. Other comorbidities were not linked. While the overall rate of flap thrombosis in free flap breast reconstruction was relatively low (2.4%), Plastic Surgeons should be aware that patients with peripheral vascular disease and those undergoing free SIEA flap are at higher risk of flap thrombosis and they should closely monitor flaps to increase the chance for early salvage. PMID:24665051

  16. Retrospective analysis of molecular scores for the prediction of distant recurrence according to baseline risk factors.

    PubMed

    Sestak, Ivana; Dowsett, Mitch; Ferree, Sean; Baehner, Frederick L; Cuzick, Jack

    2016-08-01

    Clinical variables and several gene signature profiles have been investigated for the prediction of (distant) recurrence in several trials. These molecular markers are significantly correlated with overall and late distant recurrences. Here, we retrospectively explore whether age and body mass index (BMI) affect the prediction of these molecular scores for distant recurrence in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the transATAC trial. 940 postmenopausal women for whom the Clinical Treatment Score (CTS), immunohistochemical markers (IHC4), Oncotype Recurrence Score (RS), and the Prosigna Risk of Recurrence Score (ROR) were available were included in this retrospective analysis. Conventional BMI groups were used (N = 865), and age was split into equal tertiles (N = 940). Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the effect of a molecular score for the prediction of distant recurrence according to BMI and age groups. In both the univariate and bivariate analyses, the effect size of the IHC4 and RS was strongest in women aged 59.8 years or younger. Trends tests for age were significant for the IHC4 and RS, but not for the CTS and ROR, for which most prognostic information was added in women aged 60 years or older. The CTS and ROR scores added significant prognostic information in all three BMI groups. In both the univariate and bivariate analyses, the IHC4 provided the most prognostic information in women with a BMI lower than 25 kg/m(2), whereas the RS did not add prognostic information for distant recurrence in women with a BMI of 30 kg/m(2) or above. Molecular scores are increasingly used in women with breast cancer to assess recurrence risk. We have shown that the effect size of the molecular scores is significantly different across age groups, but not across BMI groups. The results from this retrospective analysis may be incorporated in the identification of women who may benefit most from the use of these

  17. Usefulness of the driveABLE cognitive assessment in predicting the driving risk factor of stroke patients

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Seong Youl; Yoo, Doo Han; Lee, Jae Shin

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] This study examined the usefulness of the DriveABLE cognitive assessment tool (DCAT) in predicting the driving risk factor of stroke patients, and compared the cognitive and driving functions of two groups discriminated by DCAT. [Subjects and Methods] A total of forty-two stroke patients with a driver’s license participated in this study. Two participants with communication problems were excluded. DCAT was used to evaluate the risk potential to the driver, and the subjects were classified into two groups according to the probability of driving risk estimated by the DCAT evaluation. The safe driver group (SDG) and unsafe driver group (USDG) underwent a driving simulator and cognitive function assessments. [Results] The results of the SDG and USDG were compared. The SDG showed higher cognitive function than the USDG. In addition, the SDG showed higher ability than the USDG in most of the tests associated with the driving function (pedal reaction time, average reaction time, centerline crossing, road edge excursion, off-road accidents, collisions). [Conclusion] DCAT is a useful tool for predicting the risk of driving. In addition, it can predict the driving ability of stroke patients related to the cognitive function. Nevertheless, a multi-faceted study of associated with driving and cognitive functions for safe driving will be needed. PMID:26644660

  18. Health Risk Factor Modification Predicts Incidence of Diabetes in an Employee Population: Results of an 8-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Rolando, Lori; Byrne, Daniel W.; McGown, Paula W.; Goetzel, Ron Z.; Elasy, Tom; Yarbrough, Mary I.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To understand risk factor modification effect on Type 2 Diabetes incidence in a workforce population. Methods Annual Health Risk Assessment (HRA) data (n=3125) in years 1 through 4 were used to predict diabetes development in years 5 through 8. Results Employees who reduced their BMI from ≥30 to < 30 decreased their chances of developing diabetes (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.93), while those who became obese increased their diabetes risk (OR 8.85, 95% CI 2.53 to 31.0). Conclusions Weight reduction observed over a long period can result in clinically important reductions in diabetes incidence. Workplace health promotion programs may prevent diabetes among workers by encouraging weight loss and adoption of healthy lifestyle habits. PMID:23532193

  19. Body Fat Equations and Electrical Bioimpedance Values in Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Eutrophic and Overweight Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Faria, Franciane Rocha; Faria, Eliane Rodrigues; Cecon, Roberta Stofeles; Barbosa Júnior, Djalma Adão; Franceschini, Sylvia do Carmo Castro; Peluzio, Maria do Carmo Gouveia; Ribeiro, Andréia Queiroz; Lira, Pedro Israel Cabral; Cecon, Paulo Roberto; Priore, Silvia Eloiza

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze body fat anthropometric equations and electrical bioimpedance analysis (BIA) in the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors in eutrophic and overweight adolescents. 210 adolescents were divided into eutrophic group (G1) and overweight group (G2). The percentage of body fat (% BF) was estimated using 10 body fat anthropometric equations and 2 BIA. We measured lipid profiles, uric acid, insulin, fasting glucose, homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and blood pressure. We found that 76.7% of the adolescents exhibited inadequacy of at least one biochemical parameter or clinical cardiovascular risk. Higher values of triglycerides (TG) (P = 0.001), insulin, and HOMA-IR (P < 0.001) were observed in the G2 adolescents. In multivariate linear regression analysis, the % BF from equation (5) was associated with TG, diastolic blood pressure, and insulin in G1. Among the G2 adolescents, the % BF estimated by (5) and (9) was associated with LDL, TG, insulin, and the HOMA-IR. Body fat anthropometric equations were associated with cardiovascular risk factors and should be used to assess the nutritional status of adolescents. In this study, equation (5) was associated with a higher number of cardiovascular risk factors independent of the nutritional status of adolescents. PMID:23762051

  20. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-01-01

    Background Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as ‘dyslexic’ or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Results Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Conclusions Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. PMID:25832320

  1. When there seem to be no predetermining factors: early child and proximal family risk predicting externalizing behavior in young children incurring no distal family risk.

    PubMed

    Roskam, I; Meunier, J-C; Stievenart, M; Noël, M-P

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of the current study was to examine the impact of two child risk factors, i.e. personality and inhibition, and two proximal family risk factors, i.e. parenting and attachment, and the impact of their cumulative effect on later externalizing behavior among young children incurring no distal family risk. Data were collected in a longitudinal two-wave design from 161 non-referred and referred children aged three to five years at the onset of the study. All of the children were raised in families of middle to high socio-economic status, i.e. their parents were educated to a middle to high level, had access to the job market and lived together as couples. The four risk domains were assessed at the onset of the study, while EB was rated both at the onset of the study and in the 24-month follow-up. Results confirmed that the four risk domains were each both correlates of EB and efficient at discriminating non-referred from referred children; that their combination regardless of their content (cumulative risk) provided a strong prediction of both later EB and non-referred vs referred sample membership. The results are discussed both for research and clinical purposes. PMID:23123876

  2. Using Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Inpatient Aggression: Reliability and Validity of START Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Desmarais, Sarah L.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Wilson, Catherine M.; Brink, Johann

    2012-01-01

    The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & S. L. Desmarais, 2009; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & C. Middleton, 2004) is a relatively new structured professional judgment guide for the assessment and management of short-term risks associated with…

  3. Do Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Severity and Complexity of Coronary Atherosclerosis Predict Aortic Pulse Pressure during Cardiac Catheterization?

    PubMed

    Bhatt, Hemal; Sanghani, Dharmesh; Apergis, George; Fernaine, George

    2016-06-01

    Pulse pressure (PP), estimated from the peripheral blood pressure measurements, has been linked with adverse cardiovascular events. But, the association of PP and coronary artery disease is not well studied. There is a lack of data on the association of invasively measured aortic PP and cardiovascular risk factors and severity of coronary atherosclerosis. We determined the predictive factors of aortic PP during cardiac catheterization. Electronic medical records from 2010 to 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. A total of 368 patients were eligible. The data on demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, coronary lesion characteristics, and medication use was collected. On multivariable regression analysis, aging (β = 0.34, p = 0.001, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14-0.53) and prior aspirin use (β = 5.09, p = 0.015, 95% CI 0.99-9.18) were associated with higher aortic PP. Increasing estimated glomerular filtration rate (β = - 0.52, p = 0.040, 95% CI -0.90 to -0.23) was associated with lower aortic PP. Severity and complexity of coronary lesions, SYNTAX score, and number of obstructed vessels were not associated with aortic PP. Aging, prior aspirin use, and declining renal function were associated with an increase in aortic PP. Aortic PP may not predict the severity and complexity of coronary atherosclerosis. Therefore, the risk of adverse cardiovascular events associated with an elevated aortic PP may not be mediated by the severity of coronary atherosclerosis. PMID:27231423

  4. Using Clinical Factors and Mammographic Breast Density to Estimate Breast Cancer Risk: Development and Validation of a New Predictive Model

    PubMed Central

    Tice, Jeffrey A.; Cummings, Steven R.; Smith-Bindman, Rebecca; Ichikawa, Laura; Barlow, William E.; Kerlikowske, Karla

    2009-01-01

    Background Current models for assessing breast cancer risk are complex and do not include breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer that is routinely reported with mammography. Objective To develop and validate an easy-to-use breast cancer risk prediction model that includes breast density. Design Empirical model based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence, and relative hazards from a prospective cohort. Setting Screening mammography sites participating in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Patients 1 095 484 women undergoing mammography who had no previous diagnosis of breast cancer. Measurements Self-reported age, race or ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, and history of breast biopsy. Community radiologists rated breast density by using 4 Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories. Results During 5.3 years of follow-up, invasive breast cancer was diagnosed in 14 766 women. The breast density model was well calibrated overall (expected–observed ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.06]) and in racial and ethnic subgroups. It had modest discriminatory accuracy (concordance index, 0.66 [CI, 0.65 to 0.67]). Women with low-density mammograms had 5-year risks less than 1.67% unless they had a family history of breast cancer and were older than age 65 years. Limitation The model has only modest ability to discriminate between women who will develop breast cancer and those who will not. Conclusion A breast cancer prediction model that incorporates routinely reported measures of breast density can estimate 5-year risk for invasive breast cancer. Its accuracy needs to be further evaluated in independent populations before it can be recommended for clinical use. PMID:18316752

  5. Adolescent Risk Factors for Adult Alcohol Use and Abuse: Stability and Change of Predictive Value across Early and Middle Adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Merline, Alicia; Jager, Justin; Schulenberg, John E.

    2009-01-01

    Aims To examine age-18 risk factors for alcohol use and heavy drinking during early (ages 22 and 26) and middle (age 35) adulthood, and for symptoms of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) in middle adulthood. Design Nationally representative samples of U.S. adolescents in their senior year of secondary school (age 18) were followed into middle adulthood. Structural equation models estimated the associations between age-18 characteristics and current drinking and heavy drinking at ages 22, 26 and 35 and symptoms of AUDs at age 35. Participants The sample consisted of 21,137 respondents from 11 senior year cohorts (1976–1986) from the Monitoring the Future study. Findings Many predictor variables had stable associations with alcohol use over time, although their ability to explain variance in alcohol use declined with increasing time lags. Being White predicted alcohol use, but not symptoms of AUDs. Parental drinking, risk taking, and use of cigarettes and marijuana predicted heavy drinking through age 35. Planning to attend college predicted more heavy drinking at age 22 and less frequent heavy drinking by midlife. High school theft and property damage predicted later AUD symptoms. Most associations were invariant across gender, with variations typically taking the form of stronger associations between predictors and alcohol use for men. Invariance in findings across cohorts indicates that results reflect general developmental trends rather than specific historically bounded ones. Conclusions Many adolescent individual and contextual characteristics remain important predictors of adult alcohol use and abuse, and their predictive impact varies as a function of age and type of alcohol outcome. These associations are largely equivalent across gender and cohort, thus reflecting robust developmental linkages. PMID:18426542

  6. Predictive risk factors of postoperative urinary incontinence following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate during the initial learning period

    PubMed Central

    Kobayashi, Shuichiro; Yano, Masataka; Nakayama, Takayuki; Kitahara, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Purpose: To determine the predictive factors for postoperative urinary incontinence (UI) following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP) during the initial learning period. Patients and Methods: We evaluated 127 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia who underwent HoLEP between January 2011 and December 2013. We recorded clinical variables, including blood loss, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, and the presence or absence of UI. Blood loss was estimated as a decline in postoperative hemoglobin levels. The predictive factors for postoperative UI were determined using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results: Postoperative UI occurred in 31 patients (24.4%), but it cured in 29 patients (93.5%) after a mean duration of 12 weeks. Enucleation time >100 min (p=0.043) and blood loss >2.5g/dL (p=0.032) were identified as significant and independent risk factors for postoperative UI. Conclusions: Longer enucleation time and increased blood loss were independent predictors of postoperative UI in patients who underwent HoLEP during the initial learning period. Surgeons in training should take care to perform speedy enucleation maneuver with hemostasis. PMID:27564285

  7. Identifying Risk Factors for the Prediction of Hospital Readmission among Older Persons with Cardiovascular Disease.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Middleton, Renee Annette

    Older persons (55 years and older) with cardiovascular disease are at increased risk for hospital readmission when compared to other subgroups of our population. This issue presents an economic problem, a concern for the quality and type of care provided, and an urgent need to implement innovative strategies designed to reduce the rising cost of…

  8. Criminal thought process as a dynamic risk factor: Variable- and person-oriented approaches to recidivism prediction.

    PubMed

    Walters, Glenn D; Cohen, Thomas H

    2016-08-01

    The research question addressed in this study was whether an increase in criminal thought process predicted elevated risk for recidivism in a community sample of offenders. Using a 1-year change on the General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) as the independent variable, time until first arrest following a second administration of the GCT as the dependent variable, and age, criminal history, race, and ethnicity as control variables, the effect of an elevated GCT score on subsequent recidivism was tested in 35,147 male and 5,254 female federal probationers and supervised releases. Separate analyses were conducted on male and female participants. The results revealed that a rise in GCT was an incrementally valid predictor of time until first arrest in both men and women after controlling for age, criminal history, and race/ethnicity (variable-oriented analysis) and predicted the presence of a subsequent arrest during a 1-year follow-up in men regardless of initial GCT score and in women with a low initial GCT score (person-oriented analysis). Although the effect sizes were, for the most part, small, they nonetheless demonstrated both clinical and statistical significance, thereby supporting the supposition that criminal thought process, as measured by the PICTS GCT score, is a dynamic risk factor. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26974366

  9. Predictive Effects of Mother and Peer Influences on Increases in Adolescent Eating Disorder Risk Factors and Symptoms: A 3-Year Longitudinal Study

    PubMed Central

    Linville, Deanna; Stice, Eric; Gau, Jeff; O'Neil, Maya

    2014-01-01

    Objective To investigate the relation of maternal and peer attitudes and behaviors to changes in eating disorder risk factors and symptoms in adolescent females. Method We tested whether maternal and peer eating attitudes, behaviors, and deficits in social support at baseline predicted subsequent increases in eating disorder risk factors and symptoms among 483 late adolescent females followed over 3 years. Results Data provide partial support for hypotheses, as eating disorder risk factors and symptoms increased over time and maternal thin ideal internalization significantly predicted a future increases in adolescent bulimic symptoms. There were no significant predictors of adolescent thin ideal internalization or body dissatisfaction. Discussion Findings only partially support the hypothesis that unhealthy attitudes and behaviors of mothers increase risk for eating disorder symptoms in their late adolescent daughters. These results underscore why eating disorder prevention programs should be based on risk factor research that has used prospective and rigorous designs. PMID:21344465

  10. The incidence of early post-operative complications following uvulopalatopharyngoplasty: identification of predictive risk factors

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Objective Characterize complications following uvulopalatopharyngoplasty (UPPP) for obstructive sleep apnea. Study design Retrospective chart review. Subjects and methods Charts of patients undergoing UPPP at an academic teaching hospital from 1999 to 2005 were reviewed. Results 345 consecutive patients (248 inpatients; 97 outpatients) were studied. The most common post-operative complication in the entire study was oxyhemoglobin desaturation (12.8%). Three patients suffered major complications (airway obstruction, pulmonary edema, arrhythmia). Regarding complications limited to the post-anaesthetic care unit alone, only 8.2% of patients had oxyhemoglobin desaturation after discontinuation of oxygen supplementation. Inpatients requiring supplemental oxygen on the ward had significantly higher mean AHI (37.4 vs. 31.4; p=0.05) and BMI (32.3 kg/m2 vs. 28.9 kg/m2; p=0.004) than those who did not. Those inpatients who were obese (BMI > 30 kg/m2) with an AHI≥22 were associated with an increased risk of requiring oxygen on the ward (odds ratio = 3.48, 95% CI = 1.56 – 7.78). Conclusion The incidence of post-UPPP complications is much lower than the literature has historically suggested. Selected patients should be able to safely undergo outpatient UPPP. Patients with higher AHI, higher BMI, or multiple comorbidities are at higher risk for postoperative complications and are most appropriate for overnight monitoring. PMID:23570393

  11. Heart disease - risk factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000106.htm Heart disease - risk factors To use the sharing features on this ... may help you live a longer, healthier life. Risk Factors You Cannot Change Some of your heart ...

  12. Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register

    PubMed Central

    Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar; Clarke, Philip M.; Gerdtham, Ulf-G.; Nilsson, Peter; Eliasson, Björn; Gudbjörnsdottir, Soffia; Steen Carlsson, Katarina

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the current study was to provide updated time-path equations for risk factors of type-2-diabetes-related cardiovascular complications for application in risk calculators and health economic models. Observational data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register were analysed using Generalized Method of Moments estimation for dynamic panel models (N = 5,043, aged 25–70 years at diagnosis in 2001–2004). Validation was performed using persons diagnosed in 2005 (n = 414). Results were compared with the UKPDS outcome model. The value of the risk factor in the previous year was the main predictor of the current value of the risk factor. People with high (low) values of risk factor in the year of diagnosis experienced a decreasing (increasing) trend over time. BMI was associated with elevations in all risk factors, while older age at diagnosis and being female generally corresponded to lower levels of risk factors. Updated time-path equations predicted risk factors more precisely than UKPDS outcome model equations in a Swedish population. Findings indicate new time paths for cardiovascular risk factors in the post-UKPDS era. The validation analysis confirmed the importance of updating the equations as new data become available; otherwise, the results of health economic analyses may be biased. PMID:23671860

  13. When there Seem to be No Predetermining Factors: Early Child and Proximal Family Risk Predicting Externalizing Behavior in Young Children Incurring No Distal Family Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roskam, I.; Meunier, J.-C.; Stievenart, M.; Noel, M.-P.

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of the current study was to examine the impact of two child risk factors, i.e. personality and inhibition, and two proximal family risk factors, i.e. parenting and attachment, and the impact of their cumulative effect on later externalizing behavior among young children incurring no distal family risk. Data were collected in a…

  14. Unpacking Trauma Exposure Risk Factors and Differential Pathways of Influence: Predicting Postwar Mental Distress in Bosnian Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Layne, Christopher M.; Olsen, Joseph A.; Baker, Aaron; Legerski, John-Paul; Isakson, Brian; Pasalic, Alma; Durakovic-Belko, Elvira; Dapo, Nermin; Campara, Nihada; Arslanagic, Berina; Saltzman, William R.; Pynoos, Robert S.

    2010-01-01

    Methods are needed for quantifying the potency and differential effects of risk factors to identify at-risk groups for theory building and intervention. Traditional methods for constructing war exposure measures are poorly suited to "unpack" differential relations between specific types of exposure and specific outcomes. This study of 881 Bosnian…

  15. Earthquake prediction decision and risk matrix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Qi-Jia

    1993-08-01

    The issuance of an earthquake prediction must cause widespread social responses. It is suggested and discussed in this paper that the comprehensive decision issue for earthquake prediction considering the factors of the social and economic cost. The method of matrix decision for earthquake prediction (MDEP) is proposed in this paper and it is based on the risk matrix. The goal of decision is that search the best manner issuing earthquake prediction so that minimize the total losses of economy. The establishment and calculation of the risk matrix is discussed, and the decision results taking account of economic factors and not considering the economic factors are compared by examples in this paper.

  16. Unpacking trauma exposure risk factors and differential pathways of influence: predicting postwar mental distress in Bosnian adolescents.

    PubMed

    Layne, Christopher M; Olsen, Joseph A; Baker, Aaron; Legerski, John-Paul; Isakson, Brian; Pasalić, Alma; Duraković-Belko, Elvira; Dapo, Nermin; Campara, Nihada; Arslanagić, Berina; Saltzman, William R; Pynoos, Robert S

    2010-01-01

    Methods are needed for quantifying the potency and differential effects of risk factors to identify at-risk groups for theory building and intervention. Traditional methods for constructing war exposure measures are poorly suited to "unpack" differential relations between specific types of exposure and specific outcomes. This study of 881 Bosnian adolescents compared both common factor-effect indicator (using exploratory factor analysis) versus composite causal-indicator methods for "unpacking" dimensions of war exposure and their respective paths to postwar adjustment outcomes. The composite method better supported theory building and most intervention applications, showing how multitiered interventions can enhance treatment effectiveness and efficiency in war settings. Used together, the methods may unpack the elements and differential effects of "caravans" of risk and promotive factors that co-occur across development. PMID:20636682

  17. Risk Factors for Metabolic Syndrome Independently Predict Arterial Stiffness and Endothelial Dysfunction in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease and Minimal Comorbidity

    PubMed Central

    Lilitkarntakul, Pajaree; Dhaun, Neeraj; Melville, Vanessa; Kerr, Debbie; Webb, David J.; Goddard, Jane

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Metabolic syndrome (MS) is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but its contribution to arterial stiffness and endothelial dysfunction in CKD is not well defined. We hypothesized that risk factors for MS would independently predict arterial stiffness and endothelial dysfunction in CKD patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Risk factors for MS, carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV) and flow-mediated dilation (FMD) as measures of arterial stiffness and endothelial dysfunction, respectively, were assessed in 113 minimally comorbid CKD patients and in 23 matched control subjects. RESULTS CF-PWV correlated with systolic blood pressure (SBP), waist circumference, and plasma glucose (r2 = 0.25, 0.09, and 0.09; P < 0.01 for all). FMD correlated with SBP (r2 = 0.09; P < 0.01) and waist circumference (r2 = 0.03; P < 0.05). CF-PWV increased progressively (r2 = 0.07; P < 0.01) with increasing number of risk factors for MS. In multiple linear regression, SBP and waist circumference were independent determinants of CF-PWV, whereas only SBP predicted FMD. CONCLUSIONS The number of MS risk factors is an important determinant of arterial stiffness in CKD patients irrespective of the degree of renal impairment. Although BP remains the major determinant of arterial stiffness and endothelial dysfunction, waist circumference independently predicts arterial stiffness. MS risk factors, particularly abdominal girth, are potential targets for future interventional studies in patients with CKD. PMID:22648437

  18. Candy consumption in childhood is not predictive of weight, adiposity measures or cardiovascular risk factors in young adults: the Bogalusa Heart Study

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There are limited data available on the longitudinal relationship between candy consumption by children on weight and other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in young adults. The present study investigated whether candy consumption in children was predictive of weight and CVRF in young adults. A lo...

  19. Psychosocial Work Characteristics Predict Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Health Functioning in Rural Women: The Wisconsin Rural Women's Health Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chikani, Vatsal; Reding, Douglas; Gunderson, Paul; McCarty, Catherine A.

    2005-01-01

    Background: The aim of the present study is to investigate the association between psychosocial work characteristics and health functioning and cardiovascular disease risk factors among rural women of central Wisconsin and compare psychosocial work characteristics between farm and nonfarm women. Methods: Stratified sampling was used to select a…

  20. Predicting Recidivism in Juvenile Offenders on Community-Based Orders: The Impact of Risk Factors and Service Delivery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denning, Rebecca; Homel, Ross

    2008-01-01

    In 1999, the Queensland government trialled the Youth Justice Service which fundamentally changed the way supervision, rehabilitation and reintegration services were provided to young offenders on community based orders. The Youth Justice Service aims to monitor order compliance, address risk factors associated with the offending behaviour and…

  1. Configurations of Common Childhood Psychosocial Risk Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Copeland, William; Shanahan, Lilly; Costello, E. Jane; Angold, Adrian

    2009-01-01

    Background: Co-occurrence of psychosocial risk factors is commonplace, but little is known about psychiatrically-predictive configurations of psychosocial risk factors. Methods: Latent class analysis (LCA) was applied to 17 putative psychosocial risk factors in a representative population sample of 920 children ages 9 to 17. The resultant class…

  2. Predicting alcohol use across adolescence: Relative strength of individual, family, peer, and contextual risk and protective factors

    PubMed Central

    Cleveland, Michael J.; Feinberg, Mark E.; Jones, Damon E.

    2012-01-01

    The current study examined developmental changes in the relative influence of risk and protective factors (RPFs) across individual, family, peer, school, and community domains on adolescent alcohol use. Using longitudinal data from two independent samples, multivariate cross-lagged models were used to estimate the unique influence of each RPF on subsequent changes in recent alcohol use between early to late adolescence. The results supported the hypothesis that the influence of Individual Risk would increase during this developmental period. However, less consistent evidence was found concerning developmental changes among the other domains. Whereas the influence arising from Family Protection diminished during adolescence, the influence of Family Risk, School Protection, and Community Protection did not vary. The influence of Peer Risk showed a nonlinear pattern across adolescence, peaking during the middle adolescent years. The results of this study support a developmental approach to adolescent alcohol use and emphasize the need for prevention strategies that account for these developmental changes. PMID:22390336

  3. [Predictive microbiology and risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, G; Kleer, J

    2004-05-01

    Predictive microbiology (predictive modelling PM), in spite of its limits and short-comings, may often contribute to a reduction of the problems arising when HACCP systems are established or microbiological risk assessment is done. Having identified the agents which constitute a risk and the contamination rate and density in the raw material, the influences of production steps and storage on these microorganisms have to be examined. Finally, there should be an exposure assessment, i.e. an estimate of the contamination density in the final product at the time of consumption. Should the exposure assessment together with data from dose response assessments reveal a potential for intake of inacceptable numbers of organisms, the risk identified has to be characterized. As a consequence, risk management should result in a modification of the composition of the product and/or of the production process so that the risk does not surpass an acceptable limit. For this approach it is indispensable to have product- and process-specific information on the multiplication of pathogens prior to heat treatment, on reduction of their density by thermal treatment and on growth or dying of organisms having survived heat treatment or penetrated into the product after heat treatment as post-process contaminant. Commonly, challenge tests are conducted to provide such information. But they are time consuming and, as their results are only valid for the specific product tested and the conditions prevailing during the experiment, the have to be repeated if there is any modification of intrinsic or extrinsic factors. At least partially, the PM may replace the challenge tests. The efficiency of the models is rated particularly high if they are used already at the stage of product development when the question has to be answered whether a planned recipe or process of production are already save or have to be modified to become save. PMID:15233338

  4. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  6. Factors in risk perception

    PubMed

    Sjoberg

    2000-02-01

    Risk perception is a phenomenon in search of an explanation. Several approaches are discussed in this paper. Technical risk estimates are sometimes a potent factor in accounting for perceived risk, but in many important applications it is not. Heuristics and biases, mainly availability, account for only a minor portion of risk perception, and media contents have not been clearly implicated in risk perception. The psychometric model is probably the leading contender in the field, but its explanatory value is only around 20% of the variance of raw data. Adding a factor of "unnatural risk" considerably improves the psychometric model. Cultural Theory, on the other hand, has not been able to explain more than 5-10% of the variance of perceived risk, and other value scales have similarly failed. A model is proposed in which attitude, risk sensitivity, and specific fear are used as explanatory variables; this model seems to explain well over 30-40% of the variance and is thus more promising than previous approaches. The model offers a different type of psychological explanation of risk perception, and it has many implications, e.g., a different approach to the relationship between attitude and perceived risk, as compared with the usual cognitive analysis of attitude. PMID:10795334

  7. The Role of Cognitive Factors in Predicting Balance and Fall Risk in a Neuro-Rehabilitation Setting

    PubMed Central

    Saverino, A.; Waller, D.; Rantell, K.; Parry, R.; Moriarty, A.; Playford, E. D.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction There is a consistent body of evidence supporting the role of cognitive functions, particularly executive function, in the elderly and in neurological conditions which become more frequent with ageing. The aim of our study was to assess the role of different domains of cognitive functions to predict balance and fall risk in a sample of adults with various neurological conditions in a rehabilitation setting. Methods This was a prospective, cohort study conducted in a single centre in the UK. 114 participants consecutively admitted to a Neuro-Rehabilitation Unit were prospectively assessed for fall accidents. Baseline assessment included a measure of balance (Berg Balance Scale) and a battery of standard cognitive tests measuring executive function, speed of information processing, verbal and visual memory, visual perception and intellectual function. The outcomes of interest were the risk of becoming a faller, balance and fall rate. Results Two tests of executive function were significantly associated with fall risk, the Stroop Colour Word Test (IRR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00–1.03) and the number of errors on part B of the Trail Making Test (IRR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03–1.49). Composite scores of executive function, speed of information processing and visual memory domains resulted in 2 to 3 times increased likelihood of having better balance (OR 2.74 95% CI 1.08 to 6.94, OR 2.72 95% CI 1.16 to 6.36 and OR 2.44 95% CI 1.11 to 5.35 respectively). Conclusions Our results show that specific subcomponents of executive functions are able to predict fall risk, while a more global cognitive dysfunction is associated with poorer balance. PMID:27115880

  8. Novel and Convenient Method to Evaluate the Character of Solitary Pulmonary Nodule-Comparison of Three Mathematical Prediction Models and Further Stratification of Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Xiao, Fei; Liu, Deruo; Guo, Yongqing; Shi, Bin; Song, Zhiyi; Tian, Yanchu; Liang, Chaoyang

    2013-01-01

    Objective To study risk factors that affect the evaluation of malignancy in patients with solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) and verify different predictive models for malignant probability of SPN. Methods Retrospectively analyzed 107 cases of SPN with definite post-operative histological diagnosis whom underwent surgical procedures in China-Japan Friendship Hospital from November of 2010 to February of 2013. Age, gender, smoking history, malignancy history of patients, imaging features of the nodule including maximum diameter, position, spiculation, lobulation, calcification and serum level of CEA and Cyfra21-1 were assessed as potential risk factors. Univariate analysis model was used to establish statistical correlation between risk factors and post-operative histological diagnosis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn using different predictive models for malignant probability of SPN to get areas under the curves (AUC values), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, negative predictive values for each model, respectively. The predictive effectiveness of each model was statistically assessed subsequently. Results In 107 patients, 78 cases were malignant (72.9%), 29 cases were benign (27.1%). Statistical significant difference was found between benign and malignant group in age, maximum diameter, serum level of Cyfra21-1, spiculation, lobulation and calcification of the nodules. The AUC values were 0.786±0.053 (Mayo model), 0.682±0.060 (VA model) and 0.810±0.051 (Peking University People’s Hospital model), respectively. Conclusions Serum level of Cyfra21-1, patient’s age, maximum diameter of the nodule, spiculation, lobulation and calcification of the nodule are independent risk factors associated with the malignant probability of SPN. Peking University People’s Hospital model is of high accuracy and clinical value for patients with SPN. Adding serum index (e.g. Cyfra21-1) into the prediction models as a new risk factor

  9. Risk Factors for Tuberculosis

    PubMed Central

    Narasimhan, Padmanesan; Wood, James; MacIntyre, Chandini Raina; Mathai, Dilip

    2013-01-01

    The risk of progression from exposure to the tuberculosis bacilli to the development of active disease is a two-stage process governed by both exogenous and endogenous risk factors. Exogenous factors play a key role in accentuating the progression from exposure to infection among which the bacillary load in the sputum and the proximity of an individual to an infectious TB case are key factors. Similarly endogenous factors lead in progression from infection to active TB disease. Along with well-established risk factors (such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), malnutrition, and young age), emerging variables such as diabetes, indoor air pollution, alcohol, use of immunosuppressive drugs, and tobacco smoke play a significant role at both the individual and population level. Socioeconomic and behavioral factors are also shown to increase the susceptibility to infection. Specific groups such as health care workers and indigenous population are also at an increased risk of TB infection and disease. This paper summarizes these factors along with health system issues such as the effects of delay in diagnosis of TB in the transmission of the bacilli. PMID:23476764

  10. A Risk Score with Additional Four Independent Factors to Predict the Incidence and Recovery from Metabolic Syndrome: Development and Validation in Large Japanese Cohorts

    PubMed Central

    Obokata, Masaru; Negishi, Kazuaki; Ohyama, Yoshiaki; Okada, Haruka; Imai, Kunihiko; Kurabayashi, Masahiko

    2015-01-01

    Background Although many risk factors for Metabolic syndrome (MetS) have been reported, there is no clinical score that predicts its incidence. The purposes of this study were to create and validate a risk score for predicting both incidence and recovery from MetS in a large cohort. Methods Subjects without MetS at enrollment (n = 13,634) were randomly divided into 2 groups and followed to record incidence of MetS. We also examined recovery from it in rest 2,743 individuals with prevalent MetS. Results During median follow-up of 3.0 years, 878 subjects in the derivation and 757 in validation cohorts developed MetS. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified 12 independent variables from the derivation cohort and initial score for subsequent MetS was created, which showed good discrimination both in the derivation (c-statistics 0.82) and validation cohorts (0.83). The predictability of the initial score for recovery from MetS was tested in the 2,743 MetS population (906 subjects recovered from MetS), where nine variables (including age, sex, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, uric acid and five MetS diagnostic criteria constituents.) remained significant. Then, the final score was created using the nine variables. This score significantly predicted both the recovery from MetS (c-statistics 0.70, p<0.001, 78% sensitivity and 54% specificity) and incident MetS (c-statistics 0.80) with an incremental discriminative ability over the model derived from five factors used in the diagnosis of MetS (continuous net reclassification improvement: 0.35, p < 0.001 and integrated discrimination improvement: 0.01, p<0.001). Conclusions We identified four additional independent risk factors associated with subsequent MetS, developed and validated a risk score to predict both incident and recovery from MetS. PMID:26230621

  11. Not Just the Demographic Change – The Impact of Trends in Risk Factor Prevalences on the Prediction of Future Cases of Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Bahr, Jeanette; Weitmann, Kerstin; Herold, Robert; Kohlmann, Thomas; van den Berg, Neeltje

    2015-01-01

    Background Previous predictions of population morbidity consider demographic changes only. To model future morbidity, however, changes in prevalences of risk factors should be considered. We calculated the number of incident cases of first myocardial infarction (MI) in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in 2017 considering the effects of demographic changes and trends in the prevalences of major risk factors simultaneously. Methods Data basis of the analysis were two population-based cohorts of the German Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-baseline [1997–2001] and the 5-year follow-up and SHIP-Trend-baseline [2008–2011] respectively). SHIP-baseline data were used to calculate the initial coefficients for major risk factors for MI with a Poisson regression model. The dependent variable was the number of incident cases of MI between SHIP-baseline and SHIP-5-year follow-up. Explanatory variables were sex, age, a validated diagnosis of hypertension and/or diabetes, smoking, waist circumference (WC), increased blood levels of triglycerides (TG) and low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), and low blood levels of high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL). Applying the coefficients determined for SHIP baseline to risk factor prevalences, derived from the new cohort SHIP-Trend together with population forecast data, we calculated the projected number of incident cases of MI in 2017. Results Except for WC and smoking in females, prevalences of risk factors in SHIP-Trend-baseline were lower compared to SHIP-baseline. Based on demographic changes only, the calculated incidence of MI for 2017 compared to the reference year 2006 yields an increase of MI (males: +11.5%, females: +8.0%). However, a decrease of MI (males: -23.7%, females: -17.1%) is shown considering the changes in the prevalences of risk factors in the projection. Conclusions The predicted number of incident cases of MI shows large differences between models with and without considering changes in the

  12. Depressive symptoms and other risk factors predicting suicide in middle-aged men: a prospective cohort study among Korean Vietnam War veterans

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Jae-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Background. Few studies have prospectively examined whether depressive symptoms and other risk factors are associated with a higher risk of suicide death in individuals other than high-risk populations such as psychiatric patients and individuals with self-harm histories. The purpose of the study is to prospectively examine whether depressive symptoms assessed by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) are associated with greater risk of suicide death and whether depressive symptoms and other risk factors are independent predictors of suicide in general-risk populations. Another aim is to evaluate the sensitivity of the BDI for predicting suicide death. Methods. 10,238 Korean Vietnam War veterans (mean age: 56.3 years) who participated in two surveys in 2001 were followed up for suicide mortality over 7.5 years. Results. 41 men died by suicide. Severely depressed participants had a higher adjusted hazard ratio (aHR = 3.4; 95% CI [1.5–7.7]) of suicide than non-to-moderately depressed ones. Higher suicide risk was associated with more severe depressive symptoms (p for trend = 0.009). After adjustment for depressive symptoms and other factors, very poor health, low education, and past drinking were associated with higher suicide risk, while good health, body mass index, and marital status were not associated with suicide. The sensitivity at the cut-off score of 31 for detecting suicide was higher during the earlier 3.5 years of the follow-up (75%; 95% CI [50–90]) than during the latter 4 years (60%; 95% CI [41–76]). Conclusions. Depressive symptoms are a strong independent predictor and very poor health, low education, and drinking status may be independent predictors of future suicide. The BDI may have acceptable diagnostic properties as a risk assessment tool for identifying people with depression and suicidal potential among middle-aged men. PMID:26157634

  13. Depressive symptoms and other risk factors predicting suicide in middle-aged men: a prospective cohort study among Korean Vietnam War veterans.

    PubMed

    Yi, Sang-Wook; Hong, Jae-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Background. Few studies have prospectively examined whether depressive symptoms and other risk factors are associated with a higher risk of suicide death in individuals other than high-risk populations such as psychiatric patients and individuals with self-harm histories. The purpose of the study is to prospectively examine whether depressive symptoms assessed by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) are associated with greater risk of suicide death and whether depressive symptoms and other risk factors are independent predictors of suicide in general-risk populations. Another aim is to evaluate the sensitivity of the BDI for predicting suicide death. Methods. 10,238 Korean Vietnam War veterans (mean age: 56.3 years) who participated in two surveys in 2001 were followed up for suicide mortality over 7.5 years. Results. 41 men died by suicide. Severely depressed participants had a higher adjusted hazard ratio (aHR = 3.4; 95% CI [1.5-7.7]) of suicide than non-to-moderately depressed ones. Higher suicide risk was associated with more severe depressive symptoms (p for trend = 0.009). After adjustment for depressive symptoms and other factors, very poor health, low education, and past drinking were associated with higher suicide risk, while good health, body mass index, and marital status were not associated with suicide. The sensitivity at the cut-off score of 31 for detecting suicide was higher during the earlier 3.5 years of the follow-up (75%; 95% CI [50-90]) than during the latter 4 years (60%; 95% CI [41-76]). Conclusions. Depressive symptoms are a strong independent predictor and very poor health, low education, and drinking status may be independent predictors of future suicide. The BDI may have acceptable diagnostic properties as a risk assessment tool for identifying people with depression and suicidal potential among middle-aged men. PMID:26157634

  14. Post-traumatic Stress Symptoms and Post-traumatic Growth in 223 Childhood Cancer Survivors: Predictive Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Tremolada, Marta; Bonichini, Sabrina; Basso, Giuseppe; Pillon, Marta

    2016-01-01

    With modern therapies and supportive care, survival rates of childhood cancer have increased considerably. However, there are long-term psychological sequelae of these treatments that may not manifest until pediatric survivors are into adulthood. The prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder in young adult survivors of childhood cancer ranges from 6.2 to 22%; associated risk factors are young age at the assessment, female gender, low education level, and some disease-related factors. The aim of this study was to investigate, in adolescent and young adult (AYA) survivors of childhood cancer, the incidence and severity of post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSSs), and to identify the risk factors and the associated post-traumatic growth (PTG) index. Participants were 223 AYA cancer survivors recruited during follow-up visits in the Oncohematology Clinic of the Department of Child and Woman’s Health, University of Padua. Data were collected from self-report questionnaires on PTSS incidence, PTG mean score, perceived social support, and medical and socio-demographic factors. Ex-patients’ mean age at the assessment was 19.33 years (SD = 3.01, 15–25), 123 males and 100 females, with a mean of years off-therapy of 9.64 (SD = 4.17). Most (52.5%) had survived an hematological disorder and 47.5% a solid tumor when they were aged, on average, 8.02 years (SD = 4.40). The main results indicated a moderate presence of clinical (≥9 symptoms: 9.4%) and sub-clinical PTSS (6–8 symptoms: 11.2%), with the avoidance criterion most often encountered. Re-experience symptoms and PTG mean score were significantly associated (r = 0.24; p = 0.0001). A hierarchical regression model (R2 = 0.08; F = 1.46; p = 0.05) identified female gender (β = 0.16; p = 0.05) and less perceived social support (β = -0.43; p = 0.05) as risk factors to developing PTSS. Another hierarchical regression model assessed the possible predictors of the PTG total score (R2 = 0.36; F = 9.1; p = 0.0001), with

  15. Prediction of Small Bowel Obstruction Caused by Bezoars Using Risk Factor Categories on Multidetector Computed Tomographic Findings

    PubMed Central

    Kuang, Lian-qin; Cheng, Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. The aim of this study was to detect factors associated with small bowel obstruction (SBO) caused by bezoars on multidetector computed tomographic findings. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 61 patients who had bezoars in the small bowels on MDCT. The patients were divided into SBO patients group and non-SBO patients group. The mean values of the diameter, volume, and CT attenuation as well as location and characteristics of the bezoars were compared between the two groups. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine factors associated with SBO. Results. There were 32 patients (52.5%) in the SBO group and 29 patients (47.5%) in the non-SBO group. The bezoars in the SBO group had greater values of each mean diameter and mean volume than those in the non-SBO group (3.2 ± 0.5 cm versus 1.6 ± 0.7 cm, P < 0.0001, 14.9 ± 6.4 cm3 versus 2.5 ± 2.7 cm3, P < 0.0001, resp.) and had a lower CT attenuation than the non-SBO group (55.5 ± 23.4 versus 173.0 ± 68.0, P < 0.0001). The SBO group had higher prevalence of phytobezoar appearance (75.0% versus 10.3%, P < 0.0001). Major diameters of bezoar and phytobezoar were significant independent risk factors associated with SBO (odds ratio = 36.09, 8.26, resp., and P = 0.0004, 0.044, resp.). Conclusions. Major diameter of bezoar or phytobezoar is a potential risk factor associated with SBO. PMID:27403434

  16. Effect of Acute Hypercapnia on Outcomes and Predictive Risk Factors for Complications among Patients Receiving Bronchoscopic Interventions under General Anesthesia

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hongwu; Zhang, Rujin; Yue, Yun; Li, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of acute hypercapnia on surgery outcomes among patients receiving bronchoscopic interventions under general anesthesia. Furthermore, independent predictive factors for surgery complications were analyzed. Method A total of 323 patients with airway stenosis were enrolled in this retrospective study. Each patient underwent interventional rigid bronchoscopy under general anesthesia. Arterial blood gas (ABG) was measured intraoperatively. In light of PaCO2 levels in ABG, patients were divided into three groups: Group C (control) (PaCO2:≤ 60 mmHg), Group M (moderate) (PaCO2:61–100 mmHg), and Group S (severe) (PaCO2: >100 mmHg). Parameters, including PaO2 levels and recovery delays, were compared across three groups. Complications among patients receiving bronchoscopic interventions were evaluated as well. Independent predictive factors for surgery related complications were analyzed by multivariable regression method. Results Significant differences in weight (p=0.04), ASA IV (p=0.008), dyspnea index (p=0.003),COPD (p=0.02), dynamic airway collapse (p=0.002), severe stenosis severity (p=0.02), and stenosis locations among three groups were observed. Mild (PaCO2:~60 mmHg) to moderate (PaCO2:60–100 mmHg) hypercapnia was not associated with delayed recovery, whereas severe hypercapnia (PaCO2:>100 mmHg) was associated with delayed recovery, as well as declined PaO2 (p=0.00) and elevated blood glucose levels (p=0.00). The complications of bronchoscopic interventions included postoperative congestive heart failure (14 cases, 4.3%), tracheorrhagia (8 cases, 2.5%), delayed recovery (19 cases, 5.9%), and transfers to ICU after surgery (10 cases, 3.1%). The multivariable regression analysis showed that procedure duration (p=0.003), lobectomy (p=0.007), dynamic airway collapse (p=0.01), severe bronchial stenosis (p=0.01) and hypercapnia (p=0.02) were independent predictive factors for surgery related complications

  17. Constructing the Suicide Risk Index (SRI): does it work in predicting suicidal behavior in young adults mediated by proximal factors?

    PubMed

    O'Connor, Maebh; Dooley, Barbara; Fitzgerald, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    Suicide is a key concern among young adults. The aim of the study was to (1) construct a suicide risk index (SRI) based on demographic, situational, and behavioral factors known to be linked to suicidal behavior and (2) investigate whether the association between the SRI and suicidal behavior was mediated by proximal processes (personal factors, coping strategies, and emotional states). Participants consisted of 7,558 individuals aged 17-25 years (M = 20.35, SD = 1.91). Nearly 22% (n = 1,542) reported self-harm and 7% (n = 499) had attempted suicide. Mediation analysis revealed both a direct effect (ß = .299, 95% CI = [.281, .317], p < .001), and a mediated effect (ß = .204, 95% CI = [.186, .222], p < .001), between the risk index and suicidal behavior. The strongest mediators were levels of self-esteem, depression, and avoidant coping. Interventions to increase self-esteem, reduce depression, and encourage adaptive coping strategies may prevent suicidal behavior in young people. PMID:25058873

  18. Thyroid Cancer Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... and radiation fallout from power plant accidents or nuclear weapons. Having had head or neck radiation treatments in childhood is a risk factor for ... should be done using the lowest dose of radiation that still provides a clear ... from nuclear weapons or power plant accidents. For instance, thyroid ...

  19. Perioperative allergy: risk factors.

    PubMed

    Caffarelli, C; Stringari, G; Pajno, G B; Peroni, D G; Franceschini, F; Dello Iacono, I; Bernardini, R

    2011-01-01

    Perioperative anaphylactic as well as anaphylactoid reactions can be elicited by drugs, diagnostic agents, antiseptics, disinfectants and latex. In some individuals, allergic reactions occur in the absence of any evident risk factor. Previous history of specific safe exposure to a product does not permit to exclude the risk of having a reaction. We have systematically reviewed characteristics in the patient's history or clinical parameters that affect the risk of developing reactions during anesthesia. Evidence shows that patients with previous unexplained reaction during anesthesia are at risk for perioperative allergic reactions. An allergic reaction to an agent is associated with previous reaction to a product that is related with the culprit agent. Multiple surgery procedures, professional exposure to latex and allergy to fruit are associated with an increased frequency of latex allergy. It has been shown that in some instances, allergic perioperative reactions may be more common in atopic patients and in females. PMID:22014923

  20. The Multi-factor Predictive Seis &Gis Model of Ecological, Genetical, Population Health Risk and Bio-geodynamic Processes In Geopathogenic Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bondarenko, Y.

    I. Goal and Scope. Human birth rate decrease, death-rate growth and increase of mu- tagenic deviations risk take place in geopathogenic and anthropogenic hazard zones. Such zones create unfavourable conditions for reproductive process of future genera- tions. These negative trends should be considered as a protective answer of the com- plex biosocial system to the appearance of natural and anthropogenic risk factors that are unfavourable for human health. The major goals of scientific evaluation and de- crease of risk of appearance of hazardous processes on the territory of Dnipropetrovsk, along with creation of the multi-factor predictive Spirit-Energy-Information Space "SEIS" & GIS Model of ecological, genetical and population health risk in connection with dangerous bio-geodynamic processes, were: multi-factor modeling and correla- tion of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and those of human health; determination of indicators that show the risk of destruction structures appearance on different levels of organization and functioning of the city ecosystem (geophys- ical and geochemical fields, soil, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere); analysis of regularities of natural, anthropogenic, and biological rhythms' interactions. II. Meth- ods. The long spatio-temporal researches (Y. Bondarenko, 1996, 2000) have proved that the ecological, genetic and epidemiological processes are in connection with de- velopment of dangerous bio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic processes. Mathemat- ical processing of space photos, lithogeochemical and geophysical maps with use of JEIS o and ERDAS o computer systems was executed at the first stage of forma- tion of multi-layer geoinformation model "Dnipropetrovsk ARC View GIS o. The multi-factor nonlinear correlation between solar activity and cosmic ray variations, geophysical, geodynamic, geochemical, atmospheric, technological, biological, socio- economical processes and oncologic case rate frequency, general and primary

  1. Neuroanatomy Predicts Individual Risk Attitudes

    PubMed Central

    Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Tymula, Agnieszka; Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W.; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers. PMID:25209279

  2. Neuroanatomy predicts individual risk attitudes.

    PubMed

    Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Tymula, Agnieszka; Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W; Glimcher, Paul W; Levy, Ifat

    2014-09-10

    Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers. PMID:25209279

  3. Developmental Dyslexia: Predicting Individual Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Paul A.; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M.; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods: The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6…

  4. Risk Factors in Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Mustacchi, Piero

    1985-01-01

    In the United States, stroke accounts for 160,000 annual deaths; only 16% of the 1.8 million stroke survivors are fully independent. The incidence of stroke increases with age. Hemorrhagic strokes outnumber ischemic strokes before age 15. Japanese men in this country have a lower stroke mortality than their age peers in Japan. Excessive stroke mortality for US nonwhites may not be entirely due to the greater prevalence of hypertension among blacks. Hypertension emerges as the single most powerful and reversible risk factor in stroke and for survival after stroke. Impaired cardiac function is the second most important precursor of stroke. The recurrence of stroke in survivors is high. The frequency of completed stroke is high in persons with transient ischemic attacks, but not in those with asymptomatic carotid bruits. Other reversible risk factors are smoking, the use of oral contraceptives, alcoholic excess, a low level of physical activity, blood hyperviscosity and drug abuse. PMID:3898597

  5. Breast cancer risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Ciszewski, Tomasz; Łopacka-Szatan, Karolina; Miotła, Paweł; Starosławska, Elżbieta

    2015-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed neoplastic disease in women around menopause often leading to a significant reduction of these women's ability to function normally in everyday life. The increased breast cancer incidence observed in epidemiological studies in a group of women actively participating in social and professional life implicates the necessity of conducting multidirectional studies in order to identify risk factors associated with the occurrence of this type of neoplasm. Taking the possibility of influencing the neoplastic transformation process in individuals as a criterion, all the risk factors initiating the process can be divided into two groups. The first group would include inherent factors such as age, sex, race, genetic makeup promoting familial occurrence of the neoplastic disease or the occurrence of benign proliferative lesions of the mammary gland. They all constitute independent parameters and do not undergo simple modification in the course of an individual's life. The second group would include extrinsic factors conditioned by lifestyle, diet or long-term medical intervention such as using oral hormonal contraceptives or hormonal replacement therapy and their influence on the neoplastic process may be modified to a certain degree. Identification of modifiable factors may contribute to development of prevention strategies decreasing breast cancer incidence. PMID:26528110

  6. Prevalence of delirium among patients at a cancer ward: Clinical risk factors and prediction by bedside cognitive tests.

    PubMed

    Grandahl, Mia Gall; Nielsen, Svend Erik; Koerner, Ejnar Alex; Schultz, Helga Holm; Arnfred, Sidse Marie

    2016-08-01

    Background Delirium is a frequent psychiatric complication to cancer, but rarely recognized by oncologists. Aims 1. To estimate the prevalence of delirium among inpatients admitted at an oncological cancer ward 2. To investigate whether simple clinical factors predict delirium 3. To examine the value of cognitive testing in the assessment of delirium. Methods On five different days, we interviewed and assessed patients admitted to a Danish cancer ward. The World Health Organization International Classification of Diseases Version 10, WHO ICD-10 Diagnostic System and the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) were used for diagnostic categorization. Clinical information was gathered from medical records and all patients were tested with Mini Cognitive Test, The Clock Drawing Test, and the Digit Span Test. Results 81 cancer patients were assessed and 33% were diagnosed with delirium. All delirious participants were CAM positive. Poor performance on the cognitive tests was associated with delirium. Medical records describing CNS metastases, benzodiazepine or morphine treatment were associated with delirium. Conclusions Delirium is prevalent among cancer inpatients. The Mini Cognitive Test, The Clock Drawing Test, and the Digit Span Test can be used as screening tools for delirium among inpatients with cancer, but even in synergy, they lack specificity. Combining cognitive testing and attention to nurses' records might improve detection, yet further studies are needed to create a more detailed patient profile for the detection of delirium. PMID:26882016

  7. Risk Factors for Eating Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Striegel-Moore, Ruth H.; Bulik, Cynthia M.

    2007-01-01

    The authors review research on risk factors for eating disorders, restricting their focus to studies in which clear precedence of the hypothesized risk factor over onset of the disorder is established. They illustrate how studies of sociocultural risk factors and biological factors have progressed on parallel tracks and propose that major advances…

  8. Factors predicting continued high-risk behavior among gay men in small cities: psychological, behavioral, and demographic characteristics related to unsafe sex.

    PubMed

    Kelly, J A; Sikkema, K J; Winett, R A; Solomon, L J; Roffman, R A; Heckman, T G; Stevenson, L Y; Perry, M J; Norman, A D; Desiderato, L J

    1995-02-01

    Nearly 6,000 men entering gay bars in 16 small American cities were anonymously surveyed to assess their sexual behavior and to determine predictors of risky sexual practices. Excluding individuals in long-term exclusive relationships, 27% of the men reported engaging in unprotected anal intercourse in the past 2 months. Factors strongly predictive of risk included having a large number of different male partners, estimating oneself to be at greater risk, having weak intentions to use condoms at next intercourse, believing that safer sex is not an expected norm within one's peer reference group, being of younger age, and having less education. These findings indicate that HIV prevention efforts are urgently needed for gay men in smaller cities, with efforts particularly focused on young and less educated men sexually active with multiple partners. Prevention should focus on strengthening intentions to change behavior and on changing social norms to foster safer sex. PMID:7896974

  9. Lameness Prevalence and Risk Factors in Large Dairy Farms in Upstate New York. Model Development for the Prediction of Claw Horn Disruption Lesions

    PubMed Central

    Foditsch, Carla; Oikonomou, Georgios; Machado, Vinícius Silva; Bicalho, Marcela Luccas; Ganda, Erika Korzune; Lima, Svetlana Ferreira; Rossi, Rodolfo; Ribeiro, Bruno Leonardo; Kussler, Arieli; Bicalho, Rodrigo Carvalho

    2016-01-01

    The main objectives of this prospective cohort study were a) to describe lameness prevalence at drying off in large high producing New York State herds based on visual locomotion score (VLS) and identify potential cow and herd level risk factors, and b) to develop a model that will predict the probability of a cow developing claw horn disruption lesions (CHDL) in the subsequent lactation using cow level variables collected at drying off and/or available from farm management software. Data were collected from 23 large commercial dairy farms located in upstate New York. A total of 7,687 dry cows, that were less than 265 days in gestation, were enrolled in the study. Farms were visited between May 2012 and March 2013, and cows were assessed for body condition score (BCS) and VLS. Data on the CHDL events recorded by the farm employees were extracted from the Dairy-Comp 305 database, as well as information regarding the studied cows’ health events, milk production, and reproductive records throughout the previous and subsequent lactation period. Univariable analyses and mixed multivariable logistic regression models were used to analyse the data at the cow level. The overall average prevalence of lameness (VLS > 2) at drying off was 14%. Lactation group, previous CHDL, mature equivalent 305-d milk yield (ME305), season, BCS at drying off and sire PTA for strength were all significantly associated with lameness at the drying off (cow-level). Lameness at drying off was associated with CHDL incidence in the subsequent lactation, as well as lactation group, previous CHDL and ME305. These risk factors for CHDL in the subsequent lactation were included in our predictive model and adjusted predicted probabilities for CHDL were calculated for all studied cows. ROC analysis identified an optimum cut-off point for these probabilities and using this cut-off point we could predict CHDL incidence in the subsequent lactation with an overall specificity of 75% and sensitivity of 59

  10. Anxiety sensitivity cognitive concerns predict suicide risk.

    PubMed

    Oglesby, Mary Elizabeth; Capron, Daniel William; Raines, Amanda Medley; Schmidt, Norman Bradley

    2015-03-30

    Anxiety sensitivity (AS) cognitive concerns, which reflects fears of mental incapacitation, have been previously associated with suicidal ideation and behavior. The first study aim was to replicate and extend upon previous research by investigating whether AS cognitive concerns can discriminate between those at low risk versus high risk for suicidal behavior. Secondly, we aimed to test the incremental predictive power of AS cognitive concerns above and beyond known suicide risk factors (i.e., thwarted belongingness and insomnia). The sample consisted of 106 individuals (75% meeting current criteria for an Axis I disorder) recruited from the community. Results revealed that AS cognitive concerns were a robust predictor of elevated suicide risk after covarying for negative affect, whereas AS social and physical concerns were not. Those with high, relative to low, AS cognitive scores were 3.67 times more likely to be in the high suicide risk group. Moreover, AS cognitive concerns significantly predicted elevated suicide risk above and beyond relevant suicide risk factors. Results of this study add to a growing body of the literature demonstrating a relationship between AS cognitive concerns and increased suicidality. Incorporating AS cognitive concerns amelioration protocols into existing interventions for suicidal behavior may be beneficial. PMID:25636499

  11. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  12. Predicting Persistent Back Symptoms by Psychosocial Risk Factors: Validity Criteria for the ÖMPSQ and the HKF-R 10 in Germany

    PubMed Central

    Riewe, E.; Neubauer, E.; Pfeifer, A. C.; Schiltenwolf, M.

    2016-01-01

    Objective 10% of all individuals in Germany develop persistent symptoms due to nonspecific back pain (NSBP) causing up to 90% of direct and indirect expenses for health care systems. Evidence indicates a strong relationship between chronic nonspecific back pain and psychosocial risk factors. The Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (ÖMPSQ) and the German Heidelberger Kurzfragebogen Rückenschmerz (HKF-R 10) are deemed valid in prediction of persistent pain, functional loss or amount of sick leave. This study provides and discusses validity criteria for these questionnaires using ROC-curve analyses. Quality measurements included sensitivity and specificity, likelihood-ratio related test-efficiencies and clinical utility in regard to predictive values. Methods 265 patients recruited from primary and secondary care units completed both questionnaires during the same timeframe. From the total, 133 patients returned a 6-month follow-up questionnaire to assess the validity criteria for outcomes of pain, function and sick leave. Results Based on heterogeneous cut-offs for the ÖMPSQ, sensitivity and specificity were moderate for outcome of pain (72%/75%). Very high sensitivity was observed for function (97%/57%) and high specificity for sick leave (63%/85%). The latter also applied to the HKF-R 10 (pain 50%/84%). Proportions between sensitivity and specificity were unbalanced except for the ÖMPSQ outcome of pain. Likelihood-ratios and positive predictive values ranged from low to moderate. Conclusion Although the ÖMPSQ may be considered useful in identification of long-term functional loss or pain, over- and underestimation of patients at risk of chronic noncspecific back pain led to limited test-efficiencies and clinical utility for both questionnaires. Further studies are required to quantify the predictive validity of both questionnaires in Germany. PMID:27442020

  13. Metabolic Syndrome-Associated Risk Factors and High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Independently Predict Arterial stiffness in 9903 Subjects With and Without Chronic Kidney Disease

    PubMed Central

    Tsai, Sung-Sheng; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Lin, Chia-Pin; Hwang, Jawl-Shan; Wu, Lung-Sheng; Chu, Pao-Hsien

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Metabolic syndrome (MS), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are related to cardiovascular diseases. Although MS is common in CKD subjects, the contribution of MS-associated risk factors and hs-CRP to arterial stiffness in CKD has not been well studied. In this cross-sectional cohort study, we enrolled 9903 subjects who underwent brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) measurements from our database of Health Care Center. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Comparing those grouped with and without CKD, multivariate linear regression analyses were used. Overall, baPWV was found to have an inverse relationship with eGFR (P for trend <0.001), which increased progressively with the presence of CKD, increasing number of MS-associated risk factors and hs-CRP (P for trend <0.001). In the non-CKD group, age, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), fasting glucose, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and hs-CRP independently predicted baPWV, whereas in CKD, eGFR, age, gender, body mass index, SBP, DBP, and fasting glucose remained predictors. The number of MS-associated risk factors and hs-CRP remains a determinant of arterial stiffness in both CKD and non-CKD groups. The decline of renal function contributes to arterial stiffness only in CKD but not in non-CKD. Our findings suggest that for CKD subjects, renal function, BP, and glycemic control are potential targets for further interventional studies of arterial stiffness. PMID:26356694

  14. Brief Report: Bifactor Modeling of General vs. Specific Factors of Religiousness Differentially Predicting Substance Use Risk in Adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; Longo, Gregory S.; Holmes, Christopher J.

    2015-01-01

    Religiousness is important to adolescents in the U.S., and the significant link between high religiousness and low substance use is well known. There is a debate between multidimensional and unidimensional perspectives of religiousness (Gorsuch, 1984); yet, no empirical study has tested this hierarchical model of religiousness related to adolescent health outcomes. The current study presents the first attempt to test a bifactor model of religiousness related to substance use among adolescents (N = 220, 45% female). Our bifactor model using structural equation modeling suggested the multidimensional nature of religiousness as well as the presence of a superordinate general religiousness factor directly explaining the covariation among the specific factors including organizational and personal religiousness and religious social support. The general religiousness factor was inversely related to substance use. After accounting for the contribution of the general religiousness factor, high organizational religiousness related to low substance use, whereas personal religiousness and religious support were positively related to substance use. The findings present the first evidence that supports hierarchical structures of adolescent religiousness that contribute differentially to adolescent substance use. PMID:26043168

  15. Brief report: Bifactor modeling of general vs. specific factors of religiousness differentially predicting substance use risk in adolescence.

    PubMed

    Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; Longo, Gregory S; Holmes, Christopher J

    2015-08-01

    Religiousness is important to adolescents in the U.S., and the significant link between high religiousness and low substance use is well known. There is a debate between multidimensional and unidimensional perspectives of religiousness (Gorsuch, 1984); yet, no empirical study has tested this hierarchical model of religiousness related to adolescent health outcomes. The current study presents the first attempt to test a bifactor model of religiousness related to substance use among adolescents (N = 220, 45% female). Our bifactor model using structural equation modeling suggested the multidimensional nature of religiousness as well as the presence of a superordinate general religiousness factor directly explaining the covariation among the specific factors including organizational and personal religiousness and religious social support. The general religiousness factor was inversely related to substance use. After accounting for the contribution of the general religiousness factor, high organizational religiousness related to low substance use, whereas personal religiousness and religious support were positively related to substance use. The findings present the first evidence that supports hierarchical structures of adolescent religiousness that contribute differentially to adolescent substance use. PMID:26043168

  16. Genetic Insights into Cardiometabolic Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Whitfield, John B

    2014-01-01

    Many biochemical traits are recognised as risk factors, which contribute to or predict the development of disease. Only a few are in widespread use, usually to assist with treatment decisions and motivate behavioural change. The greatest effort has gone into evaluation of risk factors for cardiovascular disease and/or diabetes, with substantial overlap as ‘cardiometabolic’ risk. Over the past few years many genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have sought to account for variation in risk factors, with the expectation that identifying relevant polymorphisms would improve our understanding or prediction of disease; others have taken the direct approach of genomic case-control studies for the corresponding diseases. Large GWAS have been published for coronary heart disease and Type 2 diabetes, and also for associated biomarkers or risk factors including body mass index, lipids, C-reactive protein, urate, liver function tests, glucose and insulin. Results are not encouraging for personal risk prediction based on genotyping, mainly because known risk loci only account for a small proportion of risk. Overlap of allelic associations between disease and marker, as found for low density lipoprotein cholesterol and heart disease, supports a causal association, but in other cases genetic studies have cast doubt on accepted risk factors. Some loci show unexpected effects on multiple markers or diseases. An intriguing feature of risk factors is the blurring of categories shown by the correlation between them and the genetic overlap between diseases previously thought of as distinct. GWAS can provide insight into relationships between risk factors, biomarkers and diseases, with potential for new approaches to disease classification. PMID:24659834

  17. [Accidents in a population of 350 adolescents and young adults: circumstances, risk factors and prediction of recurrence].

    PubMed

    Marcelli, Daniel; Ingrand, Pierre; Delamour, Magali; Ingrand, Isabelle

    2010-06-01

    Accidents among adolescents and young adults are a public health issue, and present two main characteristics: a strong association with sporting activities, and frequent recurrence. Sports accidents are generally relatively benign, but they show a marked tendency to recur Young people engaging in sporting activities do not generally exhibit psychological traits different from the general population. In contrast, the other types of accident, and particularly domestic and traffic accidents, appear to have specific features: they are often more serious, but above all they are associated with psychopathologic features, including depression, anxiety, disorders due to life events, and thrill-seeking These psychopathological features are strongly associated with recurrence. The authors describe a simple self-administered questionnaire (ECARR) designed to assess the risk of accident recurrence in this population. PMID:21513131

  18. Blood Pressure Patterns May Predict Stroke Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... fullstory_158731.html Blood Pressure Patterns May Predict Stroke Risk Odds increase with rapid rise in middle ... overall pattern to predict a patient's risk of stroke or early death, new research suggests. "Our study ...

  19. Salivary Gland Cancer: Risk Factors

    MedlinePlus

    ... Factors Request Permissions Print to PDF Salivary Gland Cancer: Risk Factors Approved by the Cancer.Net Editorial Board , 08/ ... anything that increases a person’s chance of developing cancer. Although risk factors often influence the development of cancer, most do ...

  20. Sudden cardiac death: epidemiology and risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Adabag, A. Selcuk; Luepker, Russell V.; Roger, Véronique L.; Gersh, Bernard J.

    2016-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is an important public-health problem with multiple etiologies, risk factors, and changing temporal trends. Substantial progress has been made over the past few decades in identifying markers that confer increased SCD risk at the population level. However, the quest for predicting the high-risk individual who could be a candidate for an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, or other therapy, continues. In this article, we review the incidence, temporal trends, and triggers of SCD, and its demographic, clinical, and genetic risk factors. We also discuss the available evidence supporting the use of public-access defibrillators. PMID:20142817

  1. Childhood myopia: epidemiology, risk factors, and prevention.

    PubMed

    Recko, Matthew; Stahl, Erin Durrie

    2015-01-01

    Our understanding of the dynamic interaction between the eye's growth and its ability to adapt to maintain vision has shown that childhood myopia is a significant prediction of progressive myopia and the potentially severe ocular comorbidities associated with it. It is important for us to better understand this process and its risk factors in order to better develop a prevention and treatment strategy. This article will discuss the epidemiology, risk factors and current therapeutic regimens for reducing myopic progression. PMID:25958656

  2. School Outcomes of Aggressive-Disruptive Children: Prediction From Kindergarten Risk Factors and Impact of the Fast Track Prevention Program

    PubMed Central

    Bierman, Karen L.; Coie, John; Dodge, Kenneth; Greenberg, Mark; Lochman, John; McMohan, Robert; Pinderhughes, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    A multi-gate screening process identified 891 children with aggressive-disruptive behavior problems at school entry. Fast Track provided a multi-component preventive intervention in the context of a randomized-controlled design. In addition to psychosocial support and skill training for parents and children, the intervention included intensive reading tutoring in first grade, behavioral management consultation with teachers, and the provision of homework support (as needed) through tenth grade. This study examined the impact of the intervention, as well as the impact of the child's initial aggressive-disruptive behaviors and associated school readiness skills (cognitive ability, reading readiness, attention problems) on academic progress and educational placements during elementary school (Grades 1–4) and during the secondary school years (Grades 7–10), as well as high school graduation. Child behavior problems and skills at school entry predicted school difficulties (low grades, grade retention, placement in a self-contained classroom, behavior disorder classification, and failure to graduate). Disappointingly, intervention did not significantly improve these long-term school outcomes. PMID:23386568

  3. Stroke prevention: modifying risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Romero, José Rafael; Morris, Jane; Pikula, Aleksandra

    2009-01-01

    Risk factor modification remains as the principal aspect of care for stroke prevention. Understanding of risk factors has advanced and several options are now available to treat modifiable risk factors. However, effective treatment remains a challenging task in clinical practice. Prevention begins with awareness of risk factors by patients and clinicians. Risk factor assessment along with overall stroke risk estimation should be part of evaluation of patients with stroke, and used with careful clinical judgment. In this review we discuss the impact of modifiable traditional vascular risk factors on ischemic stroke, interventions for stroke prevention, and evidence for early treatment of risk factors where available as well as areas of research progress. Emphasis should be paid in education of patients, the community and medical personnel. Future research in the field of genetic determinants of vascular risk factors and stroke will increase our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of cerebrovascular disease and likely result in development of new therapies and individualized programs for stroke prevention. PMID:19124428

  4. Candy consumption in childhood is not predictive of weight, adiposity measures or cardiovascular risk factors in young adults: the Bogalusa Heart Study

    PubMed Central

    O’Neil, C. E.; Nicklas, T. A.; Liu, Y.; Berenson, G. S.

    2015-01-01

    Background There are limited data available on the longitudinal relationship between candy consumption by children on weight and other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in young adults. The present study investigated whether candy consumption in children was predictive of weight and CVRF in young adults. Methods A longitudinal sample of children 10 years (n = 355; 61% females; 71% European Americans, 29% African Americans) who partici pated in cross sectional surveys from 1973 to 1984 (baseline) and in one of two surveys (follow ups) as young adults [19–38] years; mean (SD) = 23.6 (2.6) years] in Bogalusa, LA, were studied. Dietary data were collected using 24 h dietary recalls at baseline and at one follow up survey; a food frequency questionnaire was used in the other follow up survey. Candy consumers were those consuming any amount of candy. Candy con sumption was calculated (g day−1) from baseline 24 h dietary recalls, and was used as a covariate in the adjusted linear mixed models. Dependent variables included body mass index (BMI) and CVRF measured in young adults. Results At baseline, 92% of children reported consuming candy [46 (45) g day−1]; the percentage decreased to 67% [20 (30) g day−1] at fol low up. No longitudinal relationship was shown between baseline candy consumption and BMI or CVRF in young adults, suggesting that candy consumption was not predictive of health risks later in life. Conclusions The consumption of nutrient rich foods consistent with die tary recommendations is important, although modest amounts of candy can be added to the diet without potential adverse long term consequences to weight or CVRF. Additional studies are needed to confirm these results. PMID:24382141

  5. Risk factors and effective management of preeclampsia

    PubMed Central

    English, Fred A; Kenny, Louise C; McCarthy, Fergus P

    2015-01-01

    Preeclampsia, a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy is estimated to complicate 2%–8% of pregnancies and remains a principal cause of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Preeclampsia may present at any gestation but is more commonly encountered in the third trimester. Multiple risk factors have been documented, including: family history, nulliparity, egg donation, diabetes, and obesity. Significant progress has been made in developing tests to predict risk of preeclampsia in pregnancy, but these remain confined to clinical trial settings and center around measuring angiogenic profiles, including placental growth factor or newer tests involving metabolomics. Less progress has been made in developing new treatments and therapeutic targets, and aspirin remains one of the few agents shown to consistently reduce the risk of developing preeclampsia. This review serves to discuss recent advances in risk factor identification, prediction techniques, and management of preeclampsia in antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal patients. PMID:25767405

  6. Adding insult to injury: childhood and adolescent risk factors for psychosis predict lower fractional anisotropy in the superior longitudinal fasciculus in healthy adults

    PubMed Central

    DeRosse, Pamela; Ikuta, Toshikazu; Peters, Bart D.; Karlsgodt, Katherine H.; Szeszko, Philip R.; Malhotra, Anil K.

    2014-01-01

    Although epidemiological studies provide strong support for demographic and environmental risk factors in psychotic disorders, few data examine how these risk factors relate to the putative aberrant neurodevelopment associated with illness. The present study examined how the accumulation of risk factors including low IQ, low parental socioeconomic status, history of adolescent cannabis use and childhood trauma, and high levels of subclinical psychotic-like experiences contributed to aberrant neurodevelopmental outcomes in 112 otherwise healthy adults recruited from the community. Participants were studied with diffusion tensor imaging, and voxel-wise statistical analysis of fractional anisotropy (FA) using tract-based spatial statistics was used to examine the relation between cumulative risk (CR) for psychosis and white matter (WM) integrity across the whole brain. Analyses revealed that higher CR was significantly associated with lower FA in a cluster in the left superior longitudinal fasciculus. These results suggest that risk factors previously associated with psychotic disorders are associated with WM integrity even in otherwise healthy adults and may provide insight into how previously identified risk factors contribute to the structural brain abnormalities associated with psychotic illness. Prospective longitudinal studies examining the effect of risk factors on the developmental trajectory of brain WM are warranted. PMID:25277095

  7. Adding insult to injury: childhood and adolescent risk factors for psychosis predict lower fractional anisotropy in the superior longitudinal fasciculus in healthy adults.

    PubMed

    DeRosse, Pamela; Ikuta, Toshikazu; Peters, Bart D; Karlsgodt, Katherine H; Szeszko, Philip R; Malhotra, Anil K

    2014-12-30

    Although epidemiological studies provide strong support for demographic and environmental risk factors in psychotic disorders, few data examine how these risk factors relate to the putative aberrant neurodevelopment associated with illness. The present study examined how the accumulation of risk factors including low IQ, low parental socioeconomic status (SES), history of adolescent cannabis use and childhood trauma, and high levels of subclinical psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) contributed to aberrant neurodevelopmental outcomes in 112 otherwise healthy adults recruited from the community. Participants were studied with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and voxel-wise statistical analysis of fractional anisotropy (FA) using tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) was used to examine the relation between cumulative risk (CR) for psychosis and white matter (WM) integrity across the whole brain. Analyses revealed that higher CR was significantly associated with lower FA in a cluster in the left superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF). These results suggest that risk factors previously associated with psychotic disorders are associated with WM integrity even in otherwise healthy adults and may provide insight into how previously identified risk factors contribute to the structural brain abnormalities associated with psychotic illness. Prospective longitudinal studies examining the effect of risk factors on the developmental trajectory of brain WM are warranted. PMID:25277095

  8. Risk Factors for Teenage Fatherhood.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thornberry, Terence P.; Smith, Carolyn A.; Howard, Gregory J.

    1997-01-01

    Uses data from the Rochester Youth Development Study of urban youth (N=615) to identify early risk factors for the likelihood of becoming a teen father. Results show that teen fatherhood is related to a variety of risk factors, such as social class, educational performance, precocious sexual activity, and drug use. (RJM)

  9. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    MedlinePlus

    ... part of a study, please call the Scleroderma Research Foundation at 1-800-441-CURE. Environmental Risk Some ... is both time consuming and expensive. The Scleroderma Research Foundation continues to fund and facilitate the most promising ...

  10. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. PMID:25828551

  11. The Multi-factor Predictive Seis &Gis Model of Ecological, Genetical, Population Health Risk and Bio-geodynamic Processes In Geopathogenic Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bondarenko, Y.

    I. Goal and Scope. Human birth rate decrease, death-rate growth and increase of mu- tagenic deviations risk take place in geopathogenic and anthropogenic hazard zones. Such zones create unfavourable conditions for reproductive process of future genera- tions. These negative trends should be considered as a protective answer of the com- plex biosocial system to the appearance of natural and anthropogenic risk factors that are unfavourable for human health. The major goals of scientific evaluation and de- crease of risk of appearance of hazardous processes on the territory of Dnipropetrovsk, along with creation of the multi-factor predictive Spirit-Energy-Information Space "SEIS" & GIS Model of ecological, genetical and population health risk in connection with dangerous bio-geodynamic processes, were: multi-factor modeling and correla- tion of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and those of human health; determination of indicators that show the risk of destruction structures appearance on different levels of organization and functioning of the city ecosystem (geophys- ical and geochemical fields, soil, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere); analysis of regularities of natural, anthropogenic, and biological rhythms' interactions. II. Meth- ods. The long spatio-temporal researches (Y. Bondarenko, 1996, 2000) have proved that the ecological, genetic and epidemiological processes are in connection with de- velopment of dangerous bio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic processes. Mathemat- ical processing of space photos, lithogeochemical and geophysical maps with use of JEIS o and ERDAS o computer systems was executed at the first stage of forma- tion of multi-layer geoinformation model "Dnipropetrovsk ARC View GIS o. The multi-factor nonlinear correlation between solar activity and cosmic ray variations, geophysical, geodynamic, geochemical, atmospheric, technological, biological, socio- economical processes and oncologic case rate frequency, general and primary

  12. Independent effects of age-related changes in waist circumference and BMI z scores in predicting cardiovascular disease risk factors in a prospective cohort of adolescent females

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional data indicate that central adiposity is associated with cardiovascular disease risk, independent of total adiposity. The use of longitudinal data to investigate the relation between changes in fat distribution and the emergence of risk factors is limited. OBJECTIVE: We ...

  13. Coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

    PubMed

    Chambless, Lloyd E; Folsom, Aaron R; Sharrett, A Richey; Sorlie, Paul; Couper, David; Szklo, Moyses; Nieto, F Javier

    2003-09-01

    Risk prediction functions for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) were estimated using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, a prospective study of CHD in 15,792 persons recruited in 1987-1989 from four U.S. communities, with follow-up through 1998. Predictivity of which individuals had incident CHD was assessed by increase in area under ROC curves resulting from adding nontraditional risk factors and markers of subclinical disease to a basic model containing only traditional risk factors. We also assessed the increase in population attributable risk. The additional factors were body mass index; waist-hip ratio; sport activity index; forced expiratory volume; plasma fibrinogen, factor VIII, von Willebrand factor, and Lp(a); heart rate; Keys score; pack-years smoking; and subclinical disease marker carotid intima-media thickness. These factors substantially improved prediction of future CHD for men, less for women, and also increased attributable risks. PMID:14505774

  14. Risk Factors for Drug Use in Rural Adolescents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farrell, Albert D.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Tested relevance of risk-factor model for predicting drug use among rural seventh graders (n=235). Nineteen of 20 risk factors were significantly related to at least 1 category of drug use. Subset of 10 risk factors was significantly associated with prevalence and frequency of use of cigarettes, beer and wine, hard liquor, marijuana, and other…

  15. Predicting alcohol consumption in adolescence from alcohol-specific and general externalizing genetic risk factors, key environmental exposures and their interaction

    PubMed Central

    Kendler, K. S.; Gardner, C.; Dick, D. M.

    2011-01-01

    Background Alcohol consumption is influenced by specific genetic risk factors for alcohol use disorders (AUDs), non-specific genetic risk factors for externalizing behaviors and various environmental experiences. We have limited knowledge of how these risk factors inter-relate through development. Method Retrospective assessments in 1796 adult male twins using a life history calendar of key environmental exposures and alcohol consumption from early adolescence to mid-adulthood. Analysis by linear mixed models. Results The importance of non-specific genetic risk factors on maximal alcohol consumption rose rapidly in early to mid-adolescence, peaked at ages 15–17 years and then declined slowly. Alcohol-specific genetic risk factors increased slowly in influence through mid-adulthood. We detected robust evidence for environmental moderation of genetic effects on alcohol consumption that was more pronounced in early and mid-adolescence than in later periods. Alcohol availability, peer deviance and low prosocial behaviors showing the strongest moderation effects. More interactions with environmental risk factors were seen for the non-specific externalizing disorder risk than for specific genetic risk for AUDs. Conclusions The impact of specific and non-specific genetic influences on alcohol consumption have different development trajectories. Genetic effects on alcohol use are more pronounced when social constraints are minimized (e.g. low prosocial behaviors or parental monitoring) or when the environment permits easy access to alcohol and/or encourages its use (e.g. high alcohol availability or peer deviance). Gene–environment interactions influencing alcohol intake may be more robust at younger ages, indicating greater plasticity of genetic influences early in the development of drinking patterns. PMID:20942993

  16. Cardiovascular risk factor investigation: a pediatric issue

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Anabel N; Abreu, Glaucia R; Resende, Rogério S; Goncalves, Washington LS; Gouvea, Sonia Alves

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To correlate cardiovascular risk factors (e.g., hypertension, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, hyperglycemia, sedentariness) in childhood and adolescence with the occurrence of cardiovascular disease. Sources A systematic review of books and selected articles from PubMed, SciELO and Cochrane from 1992 to 2012. Summary of findings Risk factors for atherosclerosis are present in childhood, although cardiovascular disease arises during adulthood. This article presents the main studies that describe the importance of investigating the risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in childhood and their associations. Significant rates of hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia, and sedentariness occur in children and adolescents. Blood pressure needs to be measured in childhood. An increase in arterial blood pressure in young people predicts hypertension in adulthood. The death rate from cardiovascular disease is lowest in children with lower cholesterol levels and in individuals who exercise regularly. In addition, there is a high prevalence of sedentariness in children and adolescents. Conclusions Studies involving the analysis of cardiovascular risk factors should always report the prevalence of these factors and their correlations during childhood because these factors are indispensable for identifying an at-risk population. The identification of risk factors in asymptomatic children could contribute to a decrease in cardiovascular disease, preventing such diseases as hypertension, obesity, and dyslipidemia from becoming the epidemics of this century. PMID:23515212

  17. Developing a Comprehensive Model of Risk and Protective Factors That Can Predict Spelling at Age Seven: Findings from a Community Sample of Victorian Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Serry, Tanya Anne; Castles, Anne; Mensah, Fiona K.; Bavin, Edith L.; Eadie, Patricia; Pezic, Angela; Prior, Margot; Bretherton, Lesley; Reilly, Sheena

    2015-01-01

    The paper reports on a study designed to develop a risk model that can best predict single-word spelling in seven-year-old children when they were aged 4 and 5. Test measures, personal characteristics and environmental influences were all considered as variables from a community sample of 971 children. Strong concurrent correlations were found…

  18. Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms

    MedlinePlus

    ... effective if given quickly. Every minute counts! "Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms", NINDS. June 1, 2008. Prepared by: Office of Communications and Public Liaison National Institute of Neurological Disorders ...

  19. Hidden Risk Factors for Women

    MedlinePlus

    ... high cholesterol. “Those are the most common risk factors,” according to Steven J. Kittner, M.D., director of the Maryland Stroke Center at the University of Maryland School of Medicine in Baltimore. “But ...

  20. Cardiac risk factors: environmental, sociodemographic, and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors.

    PubMed

    Anthony, David; George, Paul; Eaton, Charles B

    2014-06-01

    Several environmental exposures are associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Exposure to secondhand smoke may increase the risk by as much as 25% to 30%. Exposure to third hand smoke, residual components of tobacco smoke that remain in the environment after a cigarette is extinguished, also appears to increase risk. These residual components can remain in rooms and automobiles for up to 30 years and enter the body through the skin or via inhalation or ingestion. Exposure to particulate matter air pollution from automobile emissions, power plants, and other sources is yet another environmental risk factor for CHD, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths annually in the United States. Exposure to other environmental toxins, particularly bisphenol A and phthalates, also has been linked to CHD. There are sociodemographic risks for CHD, with numerous studies showing that lower socioeconomic status is associated with higher risk. Behavioral risk factors include poor diet, such as frequent consumption of fast food and processed meals; sleep disturbance; and psychological stress, particularly related to marital or work issues. Finally, although high alcohol consumption is associated with increased CHD risk, moderate alcohol consumption (ie, less than 1 to 2 drinks/day), particularly of wine and possibly beer, appears to reduce the risk. PMID:24936715

  1. Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Methods Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. Results The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women. PMID:24204664

  2. Measurement of carotid artery intima-media thickness in dyslipidemic patients increases the power of traditional risk factors to predict cardiovascular events.

    PubMed

    Baldassarre, Damiano; Amato, Mauro; Pustina, Linda; Castelnuovo, Samuela; Sanvito, Silvia; Gerosa, Lorenzo; Veglia, Fabrizio; Keidar, Shlomo; Tremoli, Elena; Sirtori, Cesare R

    2007-04-01

    A longitudinal observational study investigated whether the measurement, in clinical practice, of carotid maximum intima-media thickness (Max-IMT) could be combined with the Framingham risk score (FRS) to improve the predictability of cardiovascular events in dyslipidemic patients who are at low or intermediate risk. Max-IMT was measured by ultrasound in 1969 patients attending a lipid clinic. The "best threshold values" (BTVs) above which we considered the Max-IMT to be abnormally high were calculated for our dyslipdemic population for each 10-year age interval in men and women. Two hundred and forty-two patients (age 54+/-10 years; 43.8% women) with an FRS <20%, i.e. at low or intermediate risk, were monitored for more than 5 years. Twenty-four of these patients suffered a cardiovascular event within 5.1+/-2.3 years. Both FRS and Max-IMT proved to be independent outcome predictors (p<0.04, both), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 6.7 (95% CI 1.43, 31.04; p=0.015) in patients in whom FRS was 10-20% and Max-IMT was above the BTV (60th percentile of Max-IMT distribution for men or 80th for women). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the Max-IMT significantly improved the predictive value of the FRS (chi(2)=8.13, p=0.04). Patients with FRS 10-20% (currently considered intermediate-risk) and also elevated Max-IMT values came into the same high-risk category as patients with FRS 20-30%. The combination of FRS with Max-IMT measurement can be used in routine clinical practice to greatly enhance the predictability of cardiovascular events in the large number of patients who fall into the intermediate-risk category, which currently does not call for aggressive preventive measures. PMID:16682042

  3. Predictive factors for intrauterine growth restriction

    PubMed Central

    Albu, AR; Anca, AF; Horhoianu, VV; Horhoianu, IA

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Reduced fetal growth is seen in about 10% of the pregnancies but only a minority has a pathological background and is known as intrauterine growth restriction or fetal growth restriction (IUGR / FGR). Increased fetal and neonatal mortality and morbidity as well as adult pathologic conditions are often associated to IUGR. Risk factors for IUGR are easy to assess but have poor predictive value. For the diagnostic purpose, biochemical serum markers, ultrasound and Doppler study of uterine and spiral arteries, placental volume and vascularization, first trimester growth pattern are object of assessment today. Modern evaluations propose combined algorithms using these strategies, all with the goal of a better prediction of risk pregnancies. Abbreviations: SGA = small for gestational age; IUGR = intrauterine growth restriction; FGR = fetal growth restriction; IUFD = intrauterine fetal demise; HIV = human immunodeficiency virus; PAPP-A = pregnancy associated plasmatic protein A; β-hCG = beta human chorionic gonadotropin; MoM = multiple of median; ADAM-12 = A-disintegrin and metalloprotease 12; PP-13 = placental protein 13; VEGF = vascular endothelial growth factor; PlGF = placental growth factor; sFlt-1 = soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1; UAD = uterine arteries Doppler ultrasound; RI = resistence index; PI = pulsatility index; VOCAL = Virtual Organ Computer–Aided Analysis software; VI = vascularization index; FI = flow index; VFI = vascularization flow index; PQ = placental quotient PMID:25408721

  4. Adolescent Risk Factors for Child Maltreatment

    PubMed Central

    Matsuda, Mauri; Greenman, Sarah J.; Augustyn, Megan Bears; Henry, Kimberly L.; Smith, Carolyn A.; Ireland, Timothy O.

    2014-01-01

    We investigate adolescent risk factors, measured at both early and late adolescence, for involvement in child maltreatment during adulthood. Comprehensive assessments of risk factors for maltreatment that use representative samples with longitudinal data are scarce and can inform multilevel prevention. We use data from the Rochester Youth Development Study, a longitudinal study begun in 1988 with a sample of 1,000 seventh and eighth graders. Participants have been interviewed 14 times and, at the last assessment (age 31), 80% were retained. Risk factors represent 10 developmental domains: area characteristics, family background/structure, parent stressors, exposure to family violence, parent-child relationships, education, peer relationships, adolescent stressors, antisocial behaviors, and precocious transitions to adulthood. Maltreatment is measured by substantiated reports from Child Protective Services records. Many individual risk factors (20 at early adolescence and 14 at later adolescence) are significantly, albeit moderately, predictive of maltreatment. Several developmental domains stand out, including family background/structure, education, antisocial behaviors, and precocious transitions. In addition, there is a pronounced impact of cumulative risk on the likelihood of maltreatment. For example, only 3% of the youth with no risk domains in their background at early adolescence were involved in later maltreatment, but for those with risk in 9 developmental domains the rate was 45%. Prevention programs targeting youth at high risk for engaging in maltreatment should begin during early adolescence when risk factors are already at play. These programs need to be comprehensive, capable of addressing the multiple and interwoven nature of risk that is associated with maltreatment. PMID:24075569

  5. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  13. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. About Alzheimer's Disease: Risk Factors and Prevention

    MedlinePlus

    ... About ADEAR About Alzheimer's Disease: Risk Factors and Prevention We can’t control some risk factors for ... as well. NIA Information on Risk Factors and Prevention 2014-2015 Alzheimer's Disease Progress Report: Advancing Research ...

  17. Enrollment Factors that Predict Persistence of At-Risk (Low Income and First Generation) Students' Journey towards Completion of a Baccalaureate Degree at Idaho State University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yizar, James H., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore, track, and predict longitudinal differences (over the course of six years beginning fall semester 2001) between and among ISU low income, first generation, or the combination of low income and first generation freshman students; regarding persistence rate, and associated persistence factors, such as ACT…

  18. Environmental risk factors for osteoporosis

    SciTech Connect

    Goyer, R.A.; Korach, K.S. ); Epstein, S. ); Bhattacharyya, M. ); Pounds, J. )

    1994-04-01

    Environmental risk factors for osteoporosis were reviewed at a conference held at the National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences 8-9 November 1993. The conference was co-sponsored by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Disease and the NIH Office of Research in Women's Health. The objective of the conference was to review what is known about risk factors for osteoporosis and to identify gaps in the present state of knowledge that might be addressed by future research. The conference was divided into two broad themes. The first session focused on current knowledge regarding etiology, risk factors, and approaches to clinical and laboratory diagnosis. This was followed by three sessions in which various environmental pollutants were discussed. Topics selected for review included environmental agents that interfere with bone and calcium metabolism, such as the toxic metals lead, cadmium, aluminum, and fluoride, natural and antiestrogens, calcium, and vitamin D.

  19. Identification of Caries Risk Factors in Toddlers

    PubMed Central

    Fontana, M.; Jackson, R.; Eckert, G.; Swigonski, N.; Chin, J.; Zandona, A. Ferreira; Ando, M.; Stookey, G.K.; Downs, S.; Zero, D.T.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors to predict caries progression in toddlers in primary-healthcare settings for the cost-effective targeting of preventive and referral strategies. We examined 329 children (26 ± 6 mos old) twice, one year apart, in Indiana, USA. A 107-item structured interview was used to collect information from the primary caregiver and child on factors/beliefs/perceptions/behaviors that could affect caries development, transmission of bacteria, medical-dental health, and access to care. Bacterial levels, gingivitis, dental plaque, and caries experience were assessed. Multiple-variable logistic regression models of caries progression toward cavitation included family caries experience, transmission-related behaviors, dietary factors, health beliefs, and lower income, but differed in selected predictors/predictive power by race/ethnicity. Addition of clinical variables did not significantly improve the prediction. PMID:21173434

  20. Risk Factors For Chronic Rhinosinusitis

    PubMed Central

    Min, Jin-Young; Tan, Bruce K.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of review To review the recent literature on risk factors for chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) with an emphasis on genetic, comorbid diseases and environmental factors associated with CRS. Through identifying potential risk factors for CRS, we glean insights into the underlying pathogenic mechanisms and essential for developing effective therapeutic strategies. Recent findings Recent findings demonstrate that genetics, comorbid medical conditions including airway diseases, gastroesophageal reflux disease, inflammatory and autoimmune diseases and various demographic and environmental factors are associated with having a CRS diagnosis. Limitations of current studies include, variable application of disease definitions, lack of prospective longitudinal studies and a disproportionate focus on tertiary care populations. Summary CRS has a broad spectrum of associations ranging from genetics to comorbid diseases and environmental factors. These predisposing factors provide valuable information for possible designing therapeutic and preventive interventions. However, to better understand whether these associations cause CRS, further studies are needed to independently replicate findings, establish temporal relationships between exposure and disease onset, evaluate the influence of exposure dose on disease severity, and to understand the biological effects of these risk factors in the context of CRS. PMID:25479315

  1. Left atrial dimension and traditional cardiovascular risk factors predict 20-year clinical cardiovascular events in young healthy adults: the CARDIA study

    PubMed Central

    Armstrong, Anderson C.; Liu, Kiang; Lewis, Cora E.; Sidney, Stephen; Colangelo, Laura A.; Kishi, Satoru; Ambale-Venkatesh, Bharath; Arynchyn, Alex; Jacobs, David R.; Correia, Luís C.L.; Gidding, Samuel S.; Lima, João A.C.

    2014-01-01

    Aims We investigated whether the addition of left atrial (LA) size determined by echocardiography improves cardiovascular risk prediction in young adults over and above the clinically established Framingham 10-year global CV risk score (FRS). Methods and results We included white and black CARDIA participants who had echocardiograms in Year-5 examination (1990–91). The combined endpoint after 20 years was incident fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular disease: myocardial infarction, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, and atrial fibrillation/flutter. Echocardiography-derived M-mode LA diameter (LAD; n = 4082; 149 events) and 2D four-chamber LA area (LAA; n = 2412; 77 events) were then indexed by height or body surface area (BSA). We used Cox regression, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess the prediction power of LA size when added to calculated FRS or FRS covariates. The LAD and LAA cohorts had similar characteristics; mean LAD/height was 2.1 ± 0.3 mm/m and LAA/height 9.3 ± 2.0 mm2/m. After indexing by height and adjusting for FRS covariates, hazard ratios were 1.31 (95% CI 1.12, 1.60) and 1.43 (95% CI 1.13, 1.80) for LAD and LAA, respectively; AUC was 0.77 for LAD and 0.78 for LAA. When LAD and LAA were indexed to BSA, the results were similar but slightly inferior. Both LAD and LAA showed modest reclassification ability, with non-significant NRIs. Conclusion LA size measurements independently predict clinical outcomes. However, it only improves discrimination over clinical parameters modestly without altering risk classification. Indexing LA size by height is at least as robust as by BSA. Further research is needed to assess subgroups of young adults who may benefit from LA size information in risk stratification. PMID:24534011

  2. Sexual harassment: identifying risk factors.

    PubMed

    O'Hare, E A; O'Donohue, W

    1998-12-01

    A new model of the etiology of sexual harassment, the four-factor model, is presented and compared with several models of sexual harassment including the biological model, the organizational model, the sociocultural model, and the sex role spillover model. A number of risk factors associated with sexually harassing behavior are examined within the framework of the four-factor model of sexual harassment. These include characteristics of the work environment (e.g., sexist attitudes among co-workers, unprofessional work environment, skewed sex ratios in the workplace, knowledge of grievance procedures for sexual harassment incidents) as well as personal characteristics of the subject (e.g., physical attractiveness, job status, sex-role). Subjects were 266 university female faculty, staff, and students who completed the Sexual Experience Questionnaire to assess the experience of sexual harassment and a questionnaire designed to assess the risk factors stated above. Results indicated that the four-factor model is a better predictor of sexual harassment than the alternative models. The risk factors most strongly associated with sexual harassment were an unprofessional environment in the workplace, sexist atmosphere, and lack of knowledge about the organization's formal grievance procedures. PMID:9883305

  3. [Psoriasis and cardiovascular risk factors].

    PubMed

    Tal, Roy; Pavlovsky, Lev; David, Michael

    2012-10-01

    Psoriasis is a common inflammatory skin disease which may dramatically affect patients' lives. This chronic disease is characterized by a protracted course of alternating remissions and relapses. In recent years, the attention of researchers has focused on the association between psoriasis and cardiovascular disease risk factors. This review summarizes the literature on this topic with an emphasis on research conducted in Israel. PMID:23316664

  4. Incidence, risk factors and prediction of post-operative acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery for active infective endocarditis: an observational study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Cardiac surgery is frequently needed in patients with infective endocarditis (IE). Acute kidney injury (AKI) often complicates IE and is associated with poor outcomes. The purpose of the study was to determine the risk factors for post-operative AKI in patients operated on for IE. Methods A retrospective, non-interventional study of prospectively collected data (2000–2010) included patients with IE and cardiac surgery with cardio-pulmonary bypass. The primary outcome was post-operative AKI, defined as the development of AKI or progression of AKI based on the acute kidney injury network (AKIN) definition. We used ensemble machine learning (“Super Learning”) to develop a predictor of AKI based on potential risk factors, and evaluated its performance using V-fold cross validation. We identified clinically important predictors among a set of risk factors using Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Results 202 patients were included, of which 120 (59%) experienced a post-operative AKI. 65 (32.2%) patients presented an AKI before surgery while 91 (45%) presented a progression of AKI in the post-operative period. 20 patients (9.9%) required a renal replacement therapy during the post-operative ICU stay and 30 (14.8%) died during their hospital stay. The following variables were found to be significantly associated with renal function impairment, after adjustment for other risk factors: multiple surgery (OR: 4.16, 95% CI: 2.98-5.80, p<0.001), pre-operative anemia (OR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.34-2.66, p<0.001), transfusion requirement during surgery (OR: 2.38, 95% CI: 1.55-3.63, p<0.001), and the use of vancomycin (OR: 2.63, 95% CI: 2.07-3.34, p<0.001), aminoglycosides (OR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.13-1.83, p=0.004) or contrast iodine (OR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.37-2.12, p<0.001). Post-operative but not pre-operative AKI was associated with hospital mortality. Conclusions Post-operative AKI following cardiopulmonary bypass for IE results from additive hits to the kidney. We

  5. Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing

    2016-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well. PMID:27199512

  6. Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations.

    PubMed

    Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing

    2016-04-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well. PMID:27199512

  7. Psychological Factors Linked to Risk Perception

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armaş, I.; Creãu, R. Z.; Stǎnciugelu, I.

    2012-04-01

    Risks are mental models, which allow people to cope with dangerous phenomena (Renn, 2008; Jasanoff, 1998). The term "risk" refers to the likelihood of an adverse effect resulting from an event. The aim of the present study is to identify the psychological factors that are most predictive of risk perception in relation with age, gender, educational level and socio-economical status. Earthquake hazard was considered, because it is an emerging danger for Bucharest. 80% of the laypeople sample are waiting for this event to happen in the next three years. By integrating all the research data, it was attempted to build a risk profile of the investigated population, which could be used by institutions responsible for earthquake risk mitigation situations in Bucharest. This research appealed to the social learning Rotter (1966), auto-effectiveness Bandura (1977; 1983), and anxiety and stress theories. We used psychological variables that measured stress, personal effectiveness and the belief in personal control. The multi-modal risk perception questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence. The sample was composed of 1.376 participants recruited on a voluntary basis. The characteristics of risk (like probability and magnitude, time scales) are perceived differently according to psychological factors that play a role also in biases in people's ability to draw inferences from probabilistic information (like cognitive dissonance). Since the 1970's, it has been argued that those who perceive life's events as being beyond their locus of control (external locus of control) are significantly more anxious and less adapted. In this research, strongest associations and significant differences were obtained between sex, age and income categories with Stress vulnerability factor and the External Locus of Control factor. The profile of the low risk perceiver is that of a young, more educated, male individual with a higher self- efficacy level and an internal locus of control.

  8. Clinical Risk Prediction by Exploring High-Order Feature Correlations

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Fei; Zhang, Ping; Wang, Xiang; Hu, Jianying

    2014-01-01

    Clinical risk prediction is one important problem in medical informatics, and logistic regression is one of the most widely used approaches for clinical risk prediction. In many cases, the number of potential risk factors is fairly large and the actual set of factors that contribute to the risk is small. Therefore sparse logistic regression is proposed, which can not only predict the clinical risk but also identify the set of relevant risk factors. The inputs of logistic regression and sparse logistic regression are required to be in vector form. This limits the applicability of these models in the problems when the data cannot be naturally represented vectors (e.g., medical images are two-dimensional matrices). To handle the cases when the data are in the form of multi-dimensional arrays, we propose HOSLR: High-Order Sparse Logistic Regression, which can be viewed as a high order extension of sparse logistic regression. Instead of solving one classification vector as in conventional logistic regression, we solve for K classification vectors in HOSLR (K is the number of modes in the data). A block proximal descent approach is proposed to solve the problem and its convergence is guaranteed. Finally we validate the effectiveness of HOSLR on predicting the onset risk of patients with Alzheimer’s disease and heart failure. PMID:25954428

  9. New Findings on Biological Factors Predicting Addiction Relapse Vulnerability

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Relapse is a highly prevalent phenomenon in addiction. This paper examines the new research on identifying biological factors that contribute to addiction relapse risk. Prospective studies examining relapse risk are reviewed, and clinical, biological, and neural factors that predict relapse risk are identified. Clinical factors, patient-related factors, and subjective and behavioral measures such as depressive symptoms, stress, and drug craving all predict future relapse risk. Among biological measures, endocrine measures such as cortisol and cortisol/corticotropin (ACTH) ratio as a measure of adrenal sensitivity and serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor were also predictive of future relapse risk. Among neural measures, brain atrophy in the medial frontal regions and hyperreactivity of the anterior cingulate during withdrawal were identified as important in drug withdrawal and relapse risk. Caveats pertaining to specific drug abuse type and phase of addiction are discussed. Finally, significant implications of these findings for clinical practice are presented, with a specific focus on determining biological markers of relapse risk that may be used to identify those individuals who are most at risk of relapse in the clinic. Such markers may then be used to assess treatment response and develop specific treatments that will normalize these neural and biological sequelae so as to significantly improve relapse outcomes. PMID:21792580

  10. Overview of entry risk predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mrozinski, R.; Mendeck, G.; Cutri-Kohart, R.

    Risk to people on the ground from uncontrolled entries of spacecraft is a primary concern when analyzing end-of-life disposal options for satellites. Countries must balance this risk with the need to mitigate an exponentially growing space debris population. Currently the United States does this via guidelines that call for a satellite to be disposed of in a controlled manner if an uncontrolled entry would be too risky to people on the ground. This risk is measured by a quantity called "casualty expectation", or E , where casualty expectation is defined as the expectedc number of people suffering death or injury due to a spacecraft entry event. If Ec exceeds 1 in 10,000, U. S. guidelines state that the entry should be controlled rather than uncontrolled. Since this guideline can have serious impacts on the cost, lifetime, and even the mission and functionality of a satellite, it is critical that this quantity be estimated well, and decision makers understand all assumptions and limitations inherent in the resulting value. This paper discusses several issues regarding estimates of casualty expectation, beginning with an overview of relevant United States policies and guidelines. The equation the space industry typically uses to estimate casualty expectation is presented, along with a look at the sensitivity of the results to the typical assumptions, models, and initial condition uncertainties. Differences in these modeling issues with respect to launch failure Ec estimates are included in the discussion. An alternate quantity to assess risks due to spacecraft entries is introduced. "Probability of casualty", or Pc , is defined as the probability of one or more instances of people suffering death or injury due to a spacecraft entry event. The equation to estimate Pc is derived, where the same assumptions, modeling, and initial condition issues for Ec apply. Several examples are then given of both Ec and Pc estimate calculations. Due to the difficult issues in

  11. Risk factors for postoperative ileus

    PubMed Central

    Kutun, Suat; Ulucanlar, Haluk; Tarcan, Oguz; Demir, Abdullah; Cetin, Abdullah

    2011-01-01

    Purpose This study aimed to examine extended postoperative ileus and its risk factors in patients who have undergone abdominal surgery, and discuss the techniques of prevention and management thereof the light of related risk factors connected with our study. Methods This prospective study involved 103 patients who had undergone abdominal surgery. The effects of age, gender, diagnosis, surgical operation conducted, excessive small intestine manipulation, opioid analgesic usage time, and systemic inflammation on the time required for the restoration of intestinal motility were investigated. The parameters were investigated prospectively. Results Regarding the factors that affected the restoration of gastrointestinal motility, resection operation type, longer operation period, longer opioid analgesics use period, longer nasogastric catheter use period, and the presence of systemic inflammation were shown to retard bowel motility for 3 days or more. Conclusion Our study confirmed that unnecessary analgesics use in patients with pain tolerance with non-steroid anti-inflammatory drugs, excessive small bowel manipulation, prolonged nasogastric catheter use have a direct negative effect on gastrointestinal motility. Considering that an exact treatment for postoperative ileus has not yet been established, and in light of the risk factors mentioned above, we regard that prevention of postoperative ileus is the most effective way of coping with intestinal dysmotility. PMID:22111079

  12. Development and Application of Chronic Disease Risk Prediction Models

    PubMed Central

    Oh, Sun Min; Stefani, Katherine M.

    2014-01-01

    Currently, non-communicable chronic diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a large proportion of chronic diseases are preventable through risk factor management. However, the prevention efficacy at the individual level is not yet satisfactory. Chronic disease prediction models have been developed to assist physicians and individuals in clinical decision-making. A chronic disease prediction model assesses multiple risk factors together and estimates an absolute disease risk for the individual. Accurate prediction of an individual's future risk for a certain disease enables the comparison of benefits and risks of treatment, the costs of alternative prevention strategies, and selection of the most efficient strategy for the individual. A large number of chronic disease prediction models, especially targeting cardiovascular diseases and cancers, have been suggested, and some of them have been adopted in the clinical practice guidelines and recommendations of many countries. Although few chronic disease prediction tools have been suggested in the Korean population, their clinical utility is not as high as expected. This article reviews methodologies that are commonly used for developing and evaluating a chronic disease prediction model and discusses the current status of chronic disease prediction in Korea. PMID:24954311

  13. [Environmental Risk Factors for Dementia].

    PubMed

    Tashiro, Yoshitaka; Kinoshita, Ayae

    2016-07-01

    Owing to recent advancements in imaging techniques and biomarker research, the natural history of Alzheimer's disease (AD) has become clear from the very first preclinical stage. According to the study, more than 20 years before the onset of AD, Aβ starts to accumulate in the brain. This induces neurofibrillary tangle formation in the cerebral isocortex, leading to cognitive decline. If this process is suppressed, disease activity can be controlled. However, at this point, the best and most realistic way to deal with AD is to target the environmental factors that have been identified as risk factors by epidemiological studies. PMID:27395468

  14. Human factors and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Minhali, A.

    1996-11-01

    A case study was presented in the 1994 Abu Dhabi International Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC, 94) which discussed the importance of investigating human factors in the design of a high integrity protection system (HIPS) to be installed on an offshore high pressure gas platform, (SPE reference ADSPE 80). This paper will follow up on the design changes, installation and operation of the HIPS with emphasis on practical implications as a result of improper integration of human factors in the system reliability and risk assessment studies.

  15. [Suicide - background, epidemiology, risk factors].

    PubMed

    Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta

    2015-10-01

    Suicide research, in particular epidemiology, comprises a huge amount of data. However, the theoretical understanding clearly lags behind the empirical knowledge. Suicide, suicide attempts and other suicidal behaviors are more heterogeneous than most explanatory approaches would assume. The most important recent contributions to a better understanding have come from selected epidemiological findings and, interestingly, prevention. This article provides an overview of epidemiological findings, the most relevant risk factors and conclusions related to successful preventive efforts. PMID:26423878

  16. Kindergarten Risk Factors, Cognitive Factors, and Teacher Judgments as Predictors of Early Reading in Dutch

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gijsel, Martine A. R.; Bosman, Anna M. T.; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2006-01-01

    This study focused on the predictive value of risk factors, cognitive factors, and teachers' judgments in a sample of 462 kindergartners for their early reading skills and reading failure at the beginning of Grade 1. With respect to risk factors, enrollment in speech-language therapy, history of dyslexia or speech-language problems in the family,…

  17. Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Microsimulation models are an important tool for estimating the comparative effectiveness of interventions through prediction of individual-level disease outcomes for a hypothetical population. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions targeted toward high risk groups, the mechanism by which risk factors influence the natural history of disease must be specified. We propose a method for evaluating these risk factor assumptions as part of model-building. Methods We used simulation studies to examine the impact of risk factor assumptions on the relative rate (RR) of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality for a cohort with a risk factor compared to a cohort without the risk factor using an extension of the CRC-SPIN model for colorectal cancer. We also compared the impact of changing age at initiation of screening colonoscopy for different risk mechanisms. Results Across CRC-specific risk factor mechanisms, the RR of CRC incidence and mortality decreased (towards one) with increasing age. The rate of change in RRs across age groups depended on both the risk factor mechanism and the strength of the risk factor effect. Increased non-CRC mortality attenuated the effect of CRC-specific risk factors on the RR of CRC when both were present. For each risk factor mechanism, earlier initiation of screening resulted in more life years gained, though the magnitude of life years gained varied across risk mechanisms. Conclusions Simulation studies can provide insight into both the effect of risk factor assumptions on model predictions and the type of data needed to calibrate risk factor models. PMID:21899767

  18. Factors predicting completion of a home visitation program by high-risk pregnant women: the North Carolina Maternal Outreach Worker Program.

    PubMed Central

    Navaie-Waliser, M; Martin, S L; Campbell, M K; Tessaro, I; Kotelchuck, M; Cross, A W

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study sought to identify characteristics of high-risk pregnant women that predicted long-term participation in a home visitation program. METHODS: Data regarding sociodemographic characteristics, perceived needs, psychological functioning, substance use, and informal social support were collected prospectively from 152 short-term and 221 long-term program participants. RESULTS: In comparison with short-term participants, long-term participants were more likely to have been African American, married, nonsmokers, and enrolled in the program during their second trimester of pregnancy, and they were more likely to have had emotional and instrumental support needs. CONCLUSIONS: Women with greater social support needs and healthier behaviors were more receptive to long-term home visitation than other women. PMID:10630150

  19. Risk Factors Predictive of Recurrence and Progression for Patients Who Suffered Initial Recurrence After Transurethral Resection of Stage pT1 Bladder Tumor in Chinese Population: A Retrospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Zhonghua; Xie, Linguo; Chen, Tao; Tian, Dawei; Liu, xiaoteng; Xu, Hao; Zhang, Yu; Wu, Zhouliang; Sha, Nan; Xing, Chen; Ding, Na; Hu, Hailong; Wu, Changli

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignancies worldwide and the stage pT1nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) has a high probability of recurrence after initial diagnosis and treatment. However, risk factors predictive of repeated recurrence and progression of pT1 bladder tumors after primary relapse have not been uncovered. Thus, we conducted the retrospective study. A total of 418 patients who suffered initial recurrence after transurethral resection (TUR) of pT1 bladder tumor were selected for the analyses. Clinic information of the patients was retrieved from their medical records. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. The probability of recurrence and progression by multivariate analyses was used as a surrogate marker to construct receiver operating curve (ROC). Results showed that variables including time to prior recurrence time, prior treatment, number of tumor, tumor size, tumor grade, and time of instillation after surgery were associated with the repeated recurrence of pT1 bladder tumor (P < 0.05). The variables including time to prior recurrence time, tumor size, tumor grade, carcinoma in situ (CIS), and time of instillation after surgery were associated with progression of pT1 bladder tumor (P < 0.05). In the present study, the multivariate model showed an area under ROC (AUC) value of 0.754 and 0.798 for tumor recurrence and progression, respectively, which was more effective in prediction than a single risk factor. In conclusion, we have identified several risk factors relevant to RFS and PFS for patients who have had a history of recurrence of pT1 bladder tumor after TUR. These predictive factors may help urologists to stratify patients into distinct risk groups of recurrence and progression, which probably contributes to the individualized

  20. Risk factors associated with lambing traits.

    PubMed

    McHugh, N; Berry, D P; Pabiou, T

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to establish the risk factors associated with both lambing difficulty and lamb mortality in the Irish sheep multibreed population. A total of 135 470 lambing events from 42 675 ewes in 839 Irish crossbred and purebred flocks were available. Risk factors associated with producer-scored ewe lambing difficulty score (scale of one (no difficulty) to four (severe difficulty)) were determined using linear mixed models. Risk factors associated with the logit of the probability of lamb mortality at birth (i.e. binary trait) were determined using generalised estimating equations. For each dependent variable, a series of simple regression models were developed as well as a multiple regression model. In the simple regression models, greater lambing difficulty was associated with quadruplet bearing, younger ewes, of terminal breed origin, lambing in February; for example, first parity ewes experienced greater (P7.0 kg) birth weights, quadruplet born lambs and lambs that experienced a more difficult lambing (predicted probability of death for lambs that required severe and veterinary assistance of 0.15 and 0.32, respectively); lambs from dual-purpose breeds and born to younger ewes were also at greater risk of mortality. In the multiple regression model, the association between ewe parity, age at first lambing, year of lambing and lamb mortality no longer persisted. The trend in solutions of the levels of each fixed effect that remained associated with lamb mortality in the multiple regression model, did not differ from the trends observed in the simple regression models although the differential in relative risk between the different lambing difficulty scores was greater in the multiple regression model. Results from this study show that many common flock- and animal-level factors are associated with both lambing difficulty and lamb mortality and management of different risk category groups (e.g. scanned litter sizes, ewe age groups) can be used

  1. Modifications of Coronary Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Albu, Jeanine; Gottlieb, Sheldon H.; August, Phyllis; Nesto, Richard W.; Orchard, Trevor J.

    2009-01-01

    In addition to the revascularization and glycemic management interventions assigned at random, the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) design includes the uniform control of major coronary artery disease risk factors, including dyslipidemia, hypertension, smoking, central obesity, and sedentary lifestyle. Target levels for risk factors were adjusted throughout the trial to comply with changes in recommended clinical practice guidelines. At present, the goals are low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <2.59 mmol/L (<100 mg/dL) with an optional goal of <1.81 mmol/L (<70 mg/dL); plasma triglyceride level <1.70 mmol/L (<150 mg/dL); blood pressure level <130 mm Hg systolic and <80 mm Hg diastolic; and smoking cessation treatment for all active smokers. Algorithms were developed for the pharmacologic management of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Dietary prescriptions for the management of glycemia, plasma lipid profiles, and blood pressure levels were adapted from existing clinical practice guidelines. Patients with a body mass index >25 were prescribed moderate caloric restriction; after the trial was under way, a lifestyle weight-management program was instituted. All patients were formally prescribed both endurance and resistance/flexibility exercises, individually adapted to their level of disability and fitness. Pedometers were distributed as a biofeedback strategy. Strategies to achieve the goals for risk factors were designed by BARI 2D working groups (lipid, cardiovascular and hypertension, and nonpharmacologic intervention) and the ongoing implementation of the strategies is monitored by lipid, hypertension, and lifestyle intervention management centers. PMID:16813737

  2. Dosimetric parameters as predictive factors for biochemical control in patients with higher risk prostate cancer treated with Pd-103 and supplemental beam radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Orio, Peter; Wallner, Kent . E-mail: kent.Wallner@med.va.gov; Merrick, Gregory; Herstein, Andrew; Mitsuyama, Paul; Thornton, Ken; Butler, Wayne; Sutlief, Steven

    2007-02-01

    Purpose: To analyze the role of dosimetric quality parameters in maximizing cancer eradication in higher risk prostate cancer patients treated with palladium (Pd)-103 and supplemental beam radiation. Methods: One-hundred-seventy-nine patients treated with Pd-103 and supplemental beam radiation, with minimum 2 years follow-up prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values and posttreatment computed tomography scans were analyzed. Dosimetric parameters included the V100 (percent of the postimplant volume covered by the prescription dose), the D90 (the minimum dose that covered 90% of the post implant volume), and the treatment margins (the radial distance between the prostatic edge and the prescription isodose). Treatment margins (TMs) were calculated using premarket software. Results: Freedom from biochemical failure was 79% at 3 years, with 92 of the 179 patients (51%) followed beyond 3 years. In comparing patients who did or did not achieve biochemical control, the most striking differences were in biologic factors of pretreatment PSA and Gleason score. The V100, D90, and average TM all showed nonsignificant trends to higher values in patients with biochemical control. In multivariate analysis of each of the three dosimetric parameters against PSA and Gleason score, TM showed the strongest correlation with biochemical control (p = 0.19). Conclusions: For patients with intermediate and high-risk prostate cancer treated with Pd-103 brachytherapy and external beam radiation, biologic factors (PSA and Gleason score) were the most important determinants of cancer eradication. However, there is a trend to better outcomes among patients with higher quality implant parameters, suggesting that attention to implant quality will maximize the likelihood of cure.

  3. Inferring the Interactions of Risk Factors from EHRs.

    PubMed

    Goodwin, Travis; Harabagiu, Sanda M

    2016-01-01

    The wealth of clinical information provided by the advent of electronic health records offers an exciting opportunity to improve the quality of patient care. Of particular importance are the risk factors, which indicate possible diagnoses, and the medications which treat them. By analysing which risk factors and medications were mentioned at different times in patients' EHRs, we are able to construct a patient's clinical chronology. This chronology enables us to not only predict how new patient's risk factors may progress, but also to discover patterns of interactions between risk factors and medications. We present a novel probabilistic model of patients' clinical chronologies and demonstrate how this model can be used to (1) predict the way a new patient's risk factors may evolve over time, (2) identify patients with irregular chronologies, and (3) discovering the interactions between pairs of risk factors, and between risk factors and medications over time. Moreover, the model proposed in this paper does not rely on (nor specify) any prior knowledge about any interactions between the risk factors and medications it represents. Thus, our model can be easily applied to any arbitrary set of risk factors and medications derived from a new dataset. PMID:27595044

  4. Inferring the Interactions of Risk Factors from EHRs

    PubMed Central

    Goodwin, Travis; Harabagiu, Sanda M.

    2016-01-01

    The wealth of clinical information provided by the advent of electronic health records offers an exciting opportunity to improve the quality of patient care. Of particular importance are the risk factors, which indicate possible diagnoses, and the medications which treat them. By analysing which risk factors and medications were mentioned at different times in patients’ EHRs, we are able to construct a patient’s clinical chronology. This chronology enables us to not only predict how new patient’s risk factors may progress, but also to discover patterns of interactions between risk factors and medications. We present a novel probabilistic model of patients’ clinical chronologies and demonstrate how this model can be used to (1) predict the way a new patient’s risk factors may evolve over time, (2) identify patients with irregular chronologies, and (3) discovering the interactions between pairs of risk factors, and between risk factors and medications over time. Moreover, the model proposed in this paper does not rely on (nor specify) any prior knowledge about any interactions between the risk factors and medications it represents. Thus, our model can be easily applied to any arbitrary set of risk factors and medications derived from a new dataset. PMID:27595044

  5. Changes in Physical Fitness Predict Improvements in Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Independently of Body Weight Loss in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Participating in the Italian Diabetes and Exercise Study (IDES)

    PubMed Central

    Balducci, Stefano; Zanuso, Silvano; Cardelli, Patrizia; Salvi, Laura; Mazzitelli, Giulia; Bazuro, Alessandra; Iacobini, Carla; Nicolucci, Antonio; Pugliese, Giuseppe

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Physical fitness is inversely related to mortality in the general population and in subjects with type 2 diabetes. Here, we present data concerning the relationship between changes in physical fitness and modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with type 2 diabetes from the Italian Diabetes and Exercise Study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Sedentary patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 606) were enrolled in 22 outpatient diabetes clinics and randomized to twice-a-week supervised aerobic and resistance training plus exercise counseling versus counseling alone for 12 months. Baseline to end-of-study changes in cardiorespiratory fitness, strength, and flexibility, as assessed by Vo2max estimation, a 5–8 maximal repetition test, and a hip/trunk flexibility test, respectively, were calculated in the whole cohort, and multiple regression analyses were applied to assess the relationship with cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS Changes in Vo2max, upper and lower body strength, and flexibility were significantly associated with the variation in the volume of physical activity, HbA1c, BMI, waist circumference, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), coronary heart disease (CHD) risk score, and inversely, HDL cholesterol. Changes in fitness predicted improvements in HbA1c, waist circumference, HDL cholesterol, hs-CRP, and CHD risk score, independent of study arm, BMI, and in case of strength, also waist circumference. CONCLUSIONS Physical activity/exercise-induced increases in fitness, particularly muscular, predict improvements in cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with type 2 diabetes independently of weight loss, thus indicating the need for targeting fitness in these individuals, particularly in subjects who struggle to lose weight. PMID:22399699

  6. Risk avoidance in sympatric large carnivores: reactive or predictive?

    PubMed

    Broekhuis, Femke; Cozzi, Gabriele; Valeix, Marion; McNutt, John W; Macdonald, David W

    2013-09-01

    1. Risks of predation or interference competition are major factors shaping the distribution of species. An animal's response to risk can either be reactive, to an immediate risk, or predictive, based on preceding risk or past experiences. The manner in which animals respond to risk is key in understanding avoidance, and hence coexistence, between interacting species. 2. We investigated whether cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), known to be affected by predation and competition by lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), respond reactively or predictively to the risks posed by these larger carnivores. 3. We used simultaneous spatial data from Global Positioning System (GPS) radiocollars deployed on all known social groups of cheetahs, lions and spotted hyaenas within a 2700 km(2) study area on the periphery of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana. The response to risk of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas was explored on three levels: short-term or immediate risk, calculated as the distance to the nearest (contemporaneous) lion or spotted hyaena, long-term risk, calculated as the likelihood of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas based on their cumulative distributions over a 6-month period and habitat-associated risk, quantified by the habitat used by each of the three species. 4. We showed that space and habitat use by cheetahs was similar to that of lions and, to a lesser extent, spotted hyaenas. However, cheetahs avoided immediate risks by positioning themselves further from lions and spotted hyaenas than predicted by a random distribution. 5. Our results suggest that cheetah spatial distribution is a hierarchical process, first driven by resource acquisition and thereafter fine-tuned by predator avoidance; thus suggesting a reactive, rather than a predictive, response to risk. PMID:23692142

  7. Predicting risk and the emergence of schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Mary C; Kelleher, Ian; Clancy, Maurice; Cannon, Mary

    2012-09-01

    This article gives an overview of genetic and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia. The presence of certain molecular, biological, and psychosocial factors at certain points in the life span, has been linked to later development of schizophrenia. All need to be considered in the context of schizophrenia as a lifelong brain disorder. Research interest in schizophrenia is shifting to late childhood/early adolescence for screening and preventative measures. This article discusses those environmental risk factors for schizophrenia for which there is the largest evidence base. PMID:22929868

  8. Risk factors identified for certain lymphoma subtypes

    Cancer.gov

    In a large international collaborative analysis of risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), scientists were able to quantify risk associated with medical history, lifestyle factors, family history of blood or lymph-borne cancers, and occupation for 11

  9. Coronary risk factors in schoolchildren.

    PubMed Central

    Boreham, C; Savage, J M; Primrose, D; Cran, G; Strain, J

    1993-01-01

    Death rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) in Northern Ireland are among the highest in the world. However, no data have been available to test the hypothesis that the high prevalence of CHD is reflected by the risk status of the childhood population. A randomly selected 2% population sample of 1015 children aged 12 and 15 years was studied to obtain baseline information on blood pressure, lipid profile, cigarette smoking, family history, physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, and dietary fat intake. Using available criteria thresholds, 15-23% displayed increased blood pressure, 12-25% had unfavourable lipid profiles, and 18-34% were overfat. In 15 year old children, 16-21% admitted being regular smokers, 26-34% displayed poor cardiorespiratory fitness, and 24-29% reported little physical activity in the previous week. Dietary analysis revealed relatively low polyunsaturated to saturated fatty acid ratios and high mean fat intakes, accounting for approximately 40% total daily energy. Despite the exclusion of family history from the analysis, 16% of the older children exhibited three or more risk factors. These results justify major concern about the level of potential coronary risk in Northern Ireland schoolchildren. Broadly based primary prevention strategies aimed at children are essential if future adult CHD mortality is to be reduced. PMID:8481039

  10. Cardiovascular risk factors among Chamorros

    PubMed Central

    Chiem, Binh; Nguyen, Victoria; Wu, Phillis L; Ko, Celine M; Cruz, Lee Ann; Sadler, Georgia Robins

    2006-01-01

    Background Little is known regarding the cardiovascular disease risk factors among Chamorros residing in the United States. Methods The Chamorro Directory International and the CDC's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Questionnaire (BRFSS) were used to assess the health related practices and needs of a random sample of 228 Chamorros. Results Inactivity, hypertension, elevated cholesterol and diabetes mellitus were more prevalent in this Chamorro sample compared to the US average. Participants who were 50-and-older or unemployed were more likely to report hypertension, diabetes and inactivity, but they were also more likely to consume more fruits and vegetables than their younger and employed counterparts. Women were more likely to report hypertension and diabetes, whereas men were more likely to have elevated BMI and to have never had their blood cholesterol checked. Conclusion The study provides data that will help healthcare providers, public health workers and community leaders identify where to focus their health improvement efforts for Chamorros and create culturally competent programs to promote health in this community. PMID:17156462

  11. Concurrent Risk Factors for Adolescent Violence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saner, Hilary; Ellickson, Phyllis

    1996-01-01

    Examines the risk and protective factors for different types of violent behavior in high school adolescents. Major risk factors include gender and deviant behaviors, committing nonviolent felonies, academic failure, and lack of parental affection and support. As risk factors increase, the likelihood of violent behavior increases. Impaired parental…

  12. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    PubMed

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. PMID:27352090

  13. Hepatitis B virus infection in Haemodialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil. Predictive risk factors for infection and molecular epidemiology

    PubMed Central

    Carrilho, Flair J; Moraes, Cleusa R; Pinho, João RR; Mello, Isabel MVGC; Bertolini, Dennis A; Lemos, Marcílio F; Moreira, Regina C; Bassit, Leda C; Cardoso, Rita A; Ribeiro-dos-Santos, Gabriela; Da Silva, Luiz C

    2004-01-01

    Background Patients under haemodialysis are considered at high risk to acquire hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Since few data are reported from Brazil, our aim was to assess the frequency and risk factors for HBV infection in haemodialysis patients from 22 Dialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, south of Brazil. Methods This study includes 813 patients, 149 haemodialysis workers and 772 healthy controls matched by sex and age. Serum samples were assayed for HBV markers and viraemia was detected by nested PCR. HBV was genotyped by partial S gene sequencing. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses with stepwise logistic regression analysis were carried out to analyse the relationship between HBV infection and the characteristics of patients and their Dialysis Units. Results Frequency of HBV infection was 10.0%, 2.7% and 2.7% among patients, haemodialysis workers and controls, respectively. Amidst patients, the most frequent HBV genotypes were A (30.6%), D (57.1%) and F (12.2%). Univariate analysis showed association between HBV infection and total time in haemodialysis, type of dialysis equipment, hygiene and sterilization of equipment, number of times reusing the dialysis lines and filters, number of patients per care-worker and current HCV infection. The logistic regression model showed that total time in haemodialysis, number of times of reusing the dialysis lines and filters, and number of patients per worker were significantly related to HBV infection. Conclusions Frequency of HBV infection among haemodialysis patients at Santa Catarina state is very high. The most frequent HBV genotypes were A, D and F. The risk for a patient to become HBV positive increase 1.47 times each month of haemodialysis; 1.96 times if the dialysis unit reuses the lines and filters ≥ 10 times compared with haemodialysis units which reuse < 10 times; 3.42 times if the number of patients per worker is more than five. Sequence similarity among the HBV S gene from isolates

  14. Risk factors associated with psychiatric readmission.

    PubMed

    Lorine, Kim; Goenjian, Haig; Kim, Soeun; Steinberg, Alan M; Schmidt, Kendall; Goenjian, Armen K

    2015-06-01

    The present study focused on identifying risk factors for early readmission of patients discharged from an urban community hospital. Retrospective chart reviews were conducted on 207 consecutive inpatient psychiatric admissions that included patients who were readmitted within 15 days, within 3 to 6 months, and not admitted for at least 12 months post-discharge. Findings indicated that a diagnosis of schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder (OR = 18; 95% CI 2.70-117.7; p < 0.05), history of alcohol abuse (OR = 9; 95% CI 1.80-40.60; p < 0.05), number of previous psychiatric hospitalizations (OR = 2; 95% CI 1.28-3.73; p < 0.05), and type of residence at initial admission (e.g., homeless, OR = 29; 95% CI 3.99-217; p < 0.05) were significant risk factors for early readmission, where OR compares readmission group 1 versus group 3 in the multinomial logistic regression. Initial positive urine drug screen, history of drug abuse or incarceration, and legal status at initial admission did not predict early readmission. Reducing the risk factors associated with psychiatric readmissions has the potential to lead to the identification and development of preventative intervention strategies that can significantly improve patient safety, quality of care, well-being, and contain health care expenditures. PMID:25974053

  15. Investigation on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Physiological Parameters

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Wan-Hua; Zhang, Heye; Zhang, Yuan-Ting

    2013-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. Early prediction of CVD is urgently important for timely prevention and treatment. Incorporation or modification of new risk factors that have an additional independent prognostic value of existing prediction models is widely used for improving the performance of the prediction models. This paper is to investigate the physiological parameters that are used as risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular events, as well as summarizing the current status on the medical devices for physiological tests and discuss the potential implications for promoting CVD prevention and treatment in the future. The results show that measures extracted from blood pressure, electrocardiogram, arterial stiffness, ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABI), and blood glucose carry valuable information for the prediction of both long-term and near-term cardiovascular risk. However, the predictive values should be further validated by more comprehensive measures. Meanwhile, advancing unobtrusive technologies and wireless communication technologies allow on-site detection of the physiological information remotely in an out-of-hospital setting in real-time. In addition with computer modeling technologies and information fusion. It may allow for personalized, quantitative, and real-time assessment of sudden CVD events. PMID:24489599

  16. Perinatal Risk Factors Interacting With Catechol O-Methyltransferase and the Serotonin Transporter Gene Predict ASD symptoms in Children With ADHD

    PubMed Central

    Nijmeijer, Judith S.; Hartman, Catharina A.; Rommelse, Nanda N.J.; Altink, Marieke E.; Buschgens, Cathelijne J.M.; Fliers, Ellen A.; Franke, Barbara; Minderaa, Ruud B.; Ormel, Johan; Sergeant, Joseph A.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Buitelaar, Jan K.; Hoekstra, Pieter J.

    2010-01-01

    Background Symptoms of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) often co-occur. Given the previously found familiality of ASD symptoms in children with ADHD, addressing these symptoms may be useful for genetic association studies, especially for candidate gene findings that have not been consistently replicated for ADHD. Methods We studied the association of the catechol o-methyltransferase (COMT) Val158Met polymorphism and the serotonin transporter (SLC6A4/SERT/5-HTT) 5-HTTLPR insertion/deletion polymorphism with ASD symptoms in children with ADHD, and whether these polymorphisms would interact with pre- and perinatal risk factors, i.e., maternal smoking during pregnancy and low birth weight. Analyses were performed using linear regression in 207 Dutch participants with combined type ADHD of the International Multicenter ADHD Genetics (IMAGE) study, and repeated in an independent ADHD sample (n = 439) selected from the TRracking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS). Dependent variables were the total and subscale scores of the Children's Social Behavior Questionnaire (CSBQ). Results No significant main effects of COMT Val158Met, 5-HTTLPR, maternal smoking during pregnancy and low birth weight on ASD symptoms were found. However, the COMT Val/Val genotype interacted with maternal smoking during pregnancy in increasing stereotyped behavior in the IMAGE sample (p = 0.008); this interaction reached significance in the TRAILS sample after correction for confounders (p = 0.02). In the IMAGE sample, the 5-HTTLPR S/S genotype interacted with maternal smoking during pregnancy, increasing problems in social interaction (p = 0.02), and also interacted with low birth weight, increasing rigid behavior (p = 0.03). Findings for 5-HTTLPR in the TRAILS sample were similar, albeit for related CSBQ subscales. Conclusions These findings suggest gene-environment interaction effects on ASD symptoms in children with ADHD. PMID:20868372

  17. Coronary Risk Factor Scoring as a Guide for Counseling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fleck, R. L.

    1971-01-01

    A risk factor scoring system for early detection, possible prediction, and counseling to coronary heart disease patients is discussed. Scoring data include dynamic EKG, cholesterol levels, triglycerine content, total lipid level, total phospolipid levels, and electrophoretic patterns. Results indicate such a system is effective in identifying high risk subjects, but that the ability to predict exceeds the ability to prevent heart disease or its complications.

  18. [Suicide risk factors among the elderly].

    PubMed

    Pérez Barrero, Sergio Andrés

    2012-08-01

    The author offers a brief overview of suicide risk factors among the elderly such as depression, all manner of abuse of the elderly, as well as medical, psychological and social risk factors, etc. By way of conclusion, a practical guide to evaluate suicide risk among the elderly is provided. PMID:22899142

  19. A risk scoring system for prediction of haemorrhagic stroke.

    PubMed

    Zodpey, S P; Tiwari, R R

    2005-01-01

    The present pair-matched case control study was carried out at Government Medical College Hospital, Nagpur, India, a tertiary care hospital with the objective to devise and validate a risk scoring system for prediction of hemorrhagic stroke. The study consisted of 166 hospitalized CT scan proved cases of hemorrhagic stroke (ICD 9, 431-432), and a age and sex matched control per case. The controls were selected from patients who attended the study hospital for conditions other than stroke. On conditional multiple logistic regression five risk factors- hypertension (OR = 1.9. 95% Cl = 1.5-2.5). raised scrum total cholesterol (OR = 2.3, 95% Cl = 1.1-4.9). use of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents (OR = 3.4, 95% Cl =1.1-10.4). past history of transient ischaemic attack (OR = 8.4, 95% Cl = 2.1- 33.6) and alcohol intake (OR = 2.1, 95% Cl = 1.3-3.6) were significant. These factors were ascribed statistical weights (based on regression coefficients) of 6, 8, 12, 21 and 8 respectively. The nonsignificant factors (diabetes mellitus, physical inactivity, obesity, smoking, type A personality, history of claudication, family history of stroke, history of cardiac diseases and oral contraceptive use in females) were not included in the development of scoring system. ROC curve suggested a total score of 21 to be the best cut-off for predicting haemorrhag stroke. At this cut-off the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity and Cohen's kappa were 0.74, 0.74, 0.74 and 0.48 respectively. The overall predictive accuracy of this additive risk scoring system (area under ROC curve by Wilcoxon statistic) was 0.79 (95% Cl = 0.73-0.84). Thus to conclude, if substantiated by further validation, this scorincy system can be used to predict haemorrhagic stroke, thereby helping to devise effective risk factor intervention strategy. PMID:16479901

  20. Risk Factors for Hyperglycaemia in Pregnancy in Tamil Nadu, India

    PubMed Central

    Kragelund Nielsen, Karoline; Damm, Peter; Kapur, Anil; Balaji, Vijayam; Balaji, Madhuri S.; Seshiah, Veerasamy; Bygbjerg, Ib C.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Hyperglycaemia in pregnancy (HIP), i.e. gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and diabetes in pregnancy (DIP), increases the risk of various short- and long-term adverse outcomes. However, much remains to be understood about the role of different risk factors in development of HIP. Objective The aims of this observational study were to examine the role of potential risk factors for HIP, and to investigate whether any single or accumulated risk factor(s) could be used to predict HIP among women attending GDM screening at three centres in urban, semi-urban and rural Tamil Nadu, India. Methodology Pregnant women underwent a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. Data on potential risk factors was collected and analysed using logistical regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated for significant risk factors and a risk factor scoring variable was constructed. Results HIP was prevalent in 18.9% of the study population (16.3% GDM; 2.6% DIP). Increasing age and BMI as well as having a mother only or both parents with diabetes were significant independent risk factors for HIP. Among women attending the rural health centre a doubling of income corresponded to an 80% increased risk of HIP (OR 1.80, 95%CI 1.10–2.93; p = 0.019), whereas it was not significantly associated with HIP among women attending the other health centres. The performance of the individual risk factors and the constructed scoring variable differed substantially between the three health centres, but none of them were good enough to discriminate between those with and without HIP. Conclusions The findings highlight the importance of socio-economic circumstances and intergenerational risk transmission in the occurrence of HIP as well as the need for universal screening. PMID:26991305

  1. Risk Factors for High Blood Pressure

    MedlinePlus

    ... the NHLBI on Twitter. Risk Factors for High Blood Pressure Anyone can develop high blood pressure; however, age, ... can increase your risk for developing high blood pressure. Age Blood pressure tends to rise with age. About 65 ...

  2. [General practitioner burnout: risk factors].

    PubMed

    Dagrada, H; Verbanck, P; Kornreich, C

    2011-09-01

    This paper aims to review current knowledge on risk factors leading to burn-out of general practitioners, who are particularly concerned by burn-out, as 50% of them are being more or less affected. This article is based on bibliographic research covering literature between 1975 and 2010, using PUB MED software, medical books and articles. 44 articles were selected as dealing well with the aspects of the burn-out reviewed here. It seems established that stress precedes burnout symptoms. Theories investigating relationships between stress and work are presented. Exogenic stress (load and organization of work, emotional interaction with the patient, constraints, lack of recognition, conflicts between private and professional life) interacts with endogenous stress (idealism, (too much) acute feeling of responsibility, mood disorder, difficulty in collaborating, character, personality). Burn-out symptoms would appear preferentially when these two stresses coexist. Despite the wealth of publications, there is still a lack of knowledge of the causes of burn-out, requiring therefore increased research efforts, in order to improve the implementation of preventive measures, beneficial to the doctors as well as to their patients. PMID:22034773

  3. Factors Predicting Meniscal Allograft Transplantation Failure

    PubMed Central

    Parkinson, Ben; Smith, Nicholas; Asplin, Laura; Thompson, Peter; Spalding, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Background: Meniscal allograft transplantation (MAT) is performed to improve symptoms and function in patients with a meniscal-deficient compartment of the knee. Numerous studies have shown a consistent improvement in patient-reported outcomes, but high failure rates have been reported by some studies. The typical patients undergoing MAT often have multiple other pathologies that require treatment at the time of surgery. The factors that predict failure of a meniscal allograft within this complex patient group are not clearly defined. Purpose: To determine predictors of MAT failure in a large series to refine the indications for surgery and better inform future patients. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: All patients undergoing MAT at a single institution between May 2005 and May 2014 with a minimum of 1-year follow-up were prospectively evaluated and included in this study. Failure was defined as removal of the allograft, revision transplantation, or conversion to a joint replacement. Patients were grouped according to the articular cartilage status at the time of the index surgery: group 1, intact or partial-thickness chondral loss; group 2, full-thickness chondral loss 1 condyle; and group 3, full-thickness chondral loss both condyles. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine significant predictors of failure, independently of other factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were produced for overall survival and significant predictors of failure in the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: There were 125 consecutive MATs performed, with 1 patient lost to follow-up. The median follow-up was 3 years (range, 1-10 years). The 5-year graft survival for the entire cohort was 82% (group 1, 97%; group 2, 82%; group 3, 62%). The probability of failure in group 1 was 85% lower (95% CI, 13%-97%) than in group 3 at any time. The probability of failure with lateral allografts was 76% lower (95% CI, 16%-89%) than medial allografts at

  4. Risk Factors of Attempted Suicide in Bipolar Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cassidy, Frederick

    2011-01-01

    Suicide rates of bipolar patients are among the highest of any psychiatric disorder, and improved identification of risk factors for attempted and completed suicide translates into improved clinical outcome. Factors that may be predictive of suicidality in an exclusively bipolar population are examined. White race, family suicide history, and…

  5. Protective Factors for Inner-City Adolescents at Risk of School Dropout: Family Factors and Social Support

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lagana, Maureen T.

    2004-01-01

    This study compared adolescents on a continuum of risk of school dropout: adolescents in the mainstream program (low risk); in an at-risk program (medium risk); and in an alternative evening program for dropouts (high risk). The researcher wanted to determine what factors predict school dropout, with particular attention given to family and social…

  6. Use of Chronic Kidney Disease to Enhance Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Those at Medium Risk.

    PubMed

    Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

    2015-01-01

    Based on global cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment for example using the Framingham risk score, it is recommended that those with high risk should be treated and those with low risk should not be treated. The recommendation for those of medium risk is less clear and uncertain. We aimed to determine whether factoring in chronic kidney disease (CKD) will improve CV risk prediction in those with medium risk. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of 905 subjects in a primary care clinic setting. Baseline CV risk profile and serum creatinine in 1998 were captured from patients record. Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score (FRS) for each patient was computed. All cardiovascular disease (CVD) events from 1998-2007 were captured. Overall, patients with CKD had higher FRS risk score (25.9% vs 20%, p = 0.001) and more CVD events (22.3% vs 11.9%, p = 0.002) over a 10-year period compared to patients without CKD. In patients with medium CV risk, there was no significant difference in the FRS score among those with and without CKD (14.4% vs 14.6%, p = 0.84) However, in this same medium risk group, patients with CKD had more CV events compared to those without CKD (26.7% vs 6.6%, p = 0.005). This is in contrast to patients in the low and high risk group where there was no difference in CVD events whether these patients had or did not have CKD. There were more CV events in the Framingham medium risk group when they also had CKD compared those in the same risk group without CKD. Hence factoring in CKD for those with medium risk helps to further stratify and identify those who are actually at greater risk, when treatment may be more likely to be indicated. PMID:26496190

  7. Predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease is influenced by the risk equation adopted: a cross-sectional analysis

    PubMed Central

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Mellalieu, Stephen D; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2014-01-01

    Background Validated risk equations are currently recommended to assess individuals to determine those at ‘high risk’ of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is no longer a risk ‘equation of choice’. Aim This study examined the differences between four commonly-used CVD risk equations. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, south Wales. Method Analysis of 790 individuals (474 females, 316 males) with no prior diagnosis of CVD or diabetes. Ten-year CVD risk was predicted by entering the relevant variables into the QRISK2, Framingham Lipids, Framingham BMI, and JBS2 risk equations. Results The Framingham BMI and JBS2 risk equations predicted a higher absolute risk than the QRISK2 and Framingham Lipids equations, and CVD risk increased concomitantly with age irrespective of which risk equation was adopted. Only a small proportion of females (0–2.1%) were predicted to be at high risk of developing CVD using any of the risk algorithms. The proportion of males predicted at high risk ranged from 5.4% (QRISK2) to 20.3% (JBS2). After age stratification, few differences between isolated risk factors were observed in males, although a greater proportion of males aged ≥50 years were predicted to be at ‘high risk’ independent of risk equation used. Conclusions Different risk equations can influence the predicted 10-year CVD risk of individuals. More males were predicted at ‘high risk’ using the JBS2 or Framingham BMI equations. Consideration should also be given to the number of isolated risk factors, especially in younger adults when evaluating CVD risk. PMID:25267049

  8. Breast cancer risk assessment using genetic variants and risk factors in a Singapore Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Genetic variants for breast cancer risk identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in Western populations require further testing in Asian populations. A risk assessment model incorporating both validated genetic variants and established risk factors may improve its performance in risk prediction of Asian women. Methods A nested case-control study of female breast cancer (411 cases and 1,212 controls) within the Singapore Chinese Health Study was conducted to investigate the effects of 51 genetic variants identified in previous GWAS on breast cancer risk. The independent effect of these genetic variants was assessed by creating a summed genetic risk score (GRS) after adjustment for body mass index and the Gail model risk factors for breast cancer. Results The GRS was an independent predictor of breast cancer risk in Chinese women. The multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of breast cancer for the second, third, and fourth quartiles of the GRS were 1.26 (0.90 to 1.76), 1.47 (1.06 to 2.04) and 1.75 (1.27 to 2.41) respectively (P for trend <0.001). In addition to established risk factors, the GRS improved the classification of 6.2% of women for their absolute risk of breast cancer in the next five years. Conclusions Genetic variants on top of conventional risk factors can improve the risk prediction of breast cancer in Chinese women. PMID:24941967

  9. Risk factors affecting dental implant survival.

    PubMed

    Vehemente, Valerie A; Chuang, Sung-Kiang; Daher, Shadi; Muftu, Ali; Dodson, Thomas B

    2002-01-01

    Given the predictability of dental implant success, the attention of the scientific community is moving from descriptions of implant success toward a more detailed analysis of factors associated with implant failure. The purposes of this study were (1) to estimate the 1- and 5-year survival of Bicon dental implants and (2) to identify risk factors associated with implant failure in an objective, statistically valid manner. To address the research purposes, we used a retrospective cohort study design and a study sample composed of patients who had one or more implants placed. The predictor variables were grouped into the following categories: demographic, health status, anatomic, implant fixture-specific, prosthetic, perioperative, and ancillary variables. The major outcome variable of interest was implant failure defined as implant removal. Overall implant survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk factors for implant failure were identified using the Cox proportional hazard regression models. The study sample was composed of 677 patients who had 677 implants randomly selected for analysis. The overall 1- and 5-year survival of the Bicon implant system was 95.2% and 90.2%, respectively. After adjusting for other covariates in a multivariate model, both tobacco use (P = .0004) and single-stage implant placement (P = .01) were statistically associated with an increased risk for failure. The results of these analyses suggest that the overall survival of the Bicon dental implant is comparable with other current implant systems. In addition, after controlling for covariates, we identified 2 exposures associated with implant survival, tobacco use and implant staging. Of interest, both of these exposures are under the clinician's control. PMID:12498449

  10. Cardiovascular risk factors in Italy.

    PubMed

    Menotti, A

    1999-12-01

    In the 1950s the Italian population was known for its low mean levels of major cardiovascular risk factors and serum cholesterol in particular. A definite increase of those mean levels was associated, in the next 2 decades, with increasing death rates from cardiovascular diseases and coronary heart disease. Between the late 1970s and early 1990s cardiovascular death rates declined by over 40%. Large population surveys showed, between 1978 and 1987, small decreases in the mean levels of blood pressure (in both sexes), of smoking habits (in men), and of body weight (in women), while serum cholesterol remained stable. These changes mathematically explained about two-thirds of the observed decline in cardiovascular mortality among middle-aged people. In the late 1980s and early 1990s scattered population studies suggested a decline in mean population levels of serum cholesterol, at least in some areas of the country. More coordinated or systematic preventive campaigns were organized by the public health authorities. On the other hand activities of many small private organizations dealing with heart health likely explain the spread of knowledge, attitude, and practice in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Food industry started to produce low-fat products and to label foods with nutrition facts. Changes in food consumption in the beneficial direction started to be recorded in the late 1980s. The spread of antihypertensive treatment was partly favored by the National Health Service offering anti-hypertensive drugs at relatively low cost. Government regulations have more and more restricted the public areas where smoking is allowed. An increasing interest for prevention on the part of physicians is a recent issue, mainly bound to the success of some major controlled trials of hypocholesterolemic drugs. PMID:10641828

  11. Multiple Interacting Risk Factors: On Methods for Allocating Risk Factor Interactions.

    PubMed

    Price, Bertram; MacNicoll, Michael

    2015-05-01

    A persistent problem in health risk analysis where it is known that a disease may occur as a consequence of multiple risk factors with interactions is allocating the total risk of the disease among the individual risk factors. This problem, referred to here as risk apportionment, arises in various venues, including: (i) public health management, (ii) government programs for compensating injured individuals, and (iii) litigation. Two methods have been described in the risk analysis and epidemiology literature for allocating total risk among individual risk factors. One method uses weights to allocate interactions among the individual risk factors. The other method is based on risk accounting axioms and finding an optimal and unique allocation that satisfies the axioms using a procedure borrowed from game theory. Where relative risk or attributable risk is the risk measure, we find that the game-theory-determined allocation is the same as the allocation where risk factor interactions are apportioned to individual risk factors using equal weights. Therefore, the apportionment problem becomes one of selecting a meaningful set of weights for allocating interactions among the individual risk factors. Equal weights and weights proportional to the risks of the individual risk factors are discussed. PMID:25644783

  12. Lung cancer in never smokers Epidemiology and risk prediction models

    PubMed Central

    McCarthy, William J.; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/ nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer risk models used by CISNET modelers. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker risk, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual-level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable risk of lung cancer. We examine the following risk factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET model. PMID:22882894

  13. What Are the Risk Factors for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors?

    MedlinePlus

    ... what causes gastrointestinal stromal tumors? What are the risk factors for gastrointestinal stromal tumors? A risk factor is ... disease like cancer. Different cancers have different risk factors. Some risk factors, like smoking, can be changed. Others, like ...

  14. Future directions in Alzheimer's disease from risk factors to prevention.

    PubMed

    Imtiaz, Bushra; Tolppanen, Anna-Maija; Kivipelto, Miia; Soininen, Hilkka

    2014-04-15

    The increase in life expectancy has resulted in a high occurrence of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Research on AD has undergone a paradigm shift from viewing it as a disease of old age to taking a life course perspective. Several vascular, lifestyle, psychological and genetic risk factors influencing this latent period have been recognized and they may act both independently and by potentiating each other. These risk factors have consequently been used to derive risk scores for predicting the likelihood of dementia. Despite population differences, age, low education and vascular risk factors were identified as key factors in all scoring systems. Risk scores can help to identify high-risk individuals who might benefit from different interventions. The European Dementia Prevention Initiative (EDPI), an international collaboration, encourages data sharing between different randomized controlled trials. At the moment, it includes three large ongoing European trials: Finnish Geriatric Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability (FINGER), Prevention of Dementia by Intensive Vascular Care (preDIVA), and Multidomain Alzheimer Prevention study (MAPT). Recently EDPI has developed a "Healthy Aging through Internet Counseling in Elderly" (HATICE) program, which intends to manage modifiable risk factors in an aged population through an easily accessible Internet platform. Thus, the focus of dementia research has shifted from identification of potential risk factors to using this information for developing interventions to prevent or delay the onset of dementia as well as identifying special high-risk populations who could be targeted in intervention trials. PMID:24418410

  15. [Risk factors for delirium tremens: a literature review].

    PubMed

    Thiercelin, N; Rabiah Lechevallier, Z; Rusch, E; Plat, A

    2012-01-01

    Delirium tremens (DT) is the most severe complication from alcohol withdrawal. Risk factors for DT (before the withdrawal begins) and early predictive factors for the development of the withdrawal syndrome towards DT (once withdrawal has started) are not clearly established. We reviewed the literature from PubMed/Medline database to identify risk factors for DT. Twenty-one studies were been selected. Three only were prospective. The most commonly identified risk factors included personal history of DT, seizures, presence of acute somatic comorbidity especially infectious, presence of early withdrawal symptoms, and genetic predisposition. Most of these risk factors are still debated and prospective studies might appear useful considering the DT prevalence and the absence of consensual both diagnostic and therapeutic protocols. PMID:21920639

  16. Psychological Factors That Predict Reaction to Abortion.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moseley, D. T.; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Investigated demographic and psychological factors related to reactions to legal abortions in 62 females in an urban southern community. Results suggest that the social context and the degree of support from a series of significant persons rather than demographic variables were most predictive of a positive reaction. (Author)

  17. Examining Factors Predicting Students' Digital Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hatlevik, Ove Edvard; Guðmundsdóttir, Gréta Björk; Loi, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine factors predicting lower secondary school students' digital competence and to explore differences between students when it comes to digital competence. Results from a digital competence test and survey in lower secondary school will be presented. It is important to learn more about and investigate what…

  18. [Lifestyle-related risk factors for dementia].

    PubMed

    Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Andersen, Kjeld; Kessing, Lars Vedel; Waldemar, Gunhild

    2006-10-01

    Emerging knowledge about modifiable risk factors for dementia has given rise to interventions that can potentially prevent or delay the onset of dementia and the possible target periods for intervention extend from prenatal period to old age. Factors during early life such as nutrition, education, and parental socioeconomic status can influence the development of dementia later in life. From mid to late life, a physically, socially, and intellectually active lifestyle is associated with reduced risk for dementia. Moreover, modification of cardiovascular risk factors during this period can potentially reduce risk for dementia. PMID:17032603

  19. Developmental Risk Factors for Sexual Offending.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Joseph K. P.; Jackson, Henry J.; Pattison, Pip; Ward, Tony

    2002-01-01

    A study involving 64 Australian sex offenders and 33 non-sex offenders found childhood emotional abuse and family dysfunction, childhood behavior problems, and childhood sexual abuse were developmental risk factors for paraphilia. Emotional abuse and family dysfunction was found to be a risk factor for pedophilia, exhibitionism, rape, or multiple…

  20. Predicting structure in nonsymmetric sparse matrix factorizations

    SciTech Connect

    Gilbert, J.R.; Ng, E.

    1991-12-31

    Many computations on sparse matrices have a phase that predicts the nonzero structure of the output, followed by a phase that actually performs the numerical computation. We study structure prediction for computations that involve nonsymmetric row and column permutations and nonsymmetric or non-square matrices. Our tools are bipartite graphs, matchings, and alternating paths. Our main new result concerns LU factorization with partial pivoting. We show that if a square matrix A has the strong Hall property (i.e., is fully indecomposable) then an upper bound due to George and Ng on the nonzero structure of L + U is as tight as possible. To show this, we prove a crucial result about alternating paths in strong Hall graphs. The alternating-paths theorem seems to be of independent interest: it can also be used to prove related results about structure prediction for QR factorization that are due to Coleman, Edenbrandt, Gilbert, Hare, Johnson, Olesky, Pothen, and van den Driessche.

  1. Predicting structure in nonsymmetric sparse matrix factorizations

    SciTech Connect

    Gilbert, J.R. ); Ng, E. )

    1991-01-01

    Many computations on sparse matrices have a phase that predicts the nonzero structure of the output, followed by a phase that actually performs the numerical computation. We study structure prediction for computations that involve nonsymmetric row and column permutations and nonsymmetric or non-square matrices. Our tools are bipartite graphs, matchings, and alternating paths. Our main new result concerns LU factorization with partial pivoting. We show that if a square matrix A has the strong Hall property (i.e., is fully indecomposable) then an upper bound due to George and Ng on the nonzero structure of L + U is as tight as possible. To show this, we prove a crucial result about alternating paths in strong Hall graphs. The alternating-paths theorem seems to be of independent interest: it can also be used to prove related results about structure prediction for QR factorization that are due to Coleman, Edenbrandt, Gilbert, Hare, Johnson, Olesky, Pothen, and van den Driessche.

  2. Predicting structure in nonsymmetric sparse matrix factorizations

    SciTech Connect

    Gilbert, J.R. ); Ng, E.G. )

    1992-10-01

    Many computations on sparse matrices have a phase that predicts the nonzero structure of the output, followed by a phase that actually performs the numerical computation. We study structure prediction for computations that involve nonsymmetric row and column permutations and nonsymmetric or non-square matrices. Our tools are bipartite graphs, matchings, and alternating paths. Our main new result concerns LU factorization with partial pivoting. We show that if a square matrix A has the strong Hall property (i.e., is fully indecomposable) then an upper bound due to George and Ng on the nonzero structure of L + U is as tight as possible. To show this, we prove a crucial result about alternating paths in strong Hall graphs. The alternating-paths theorem seems to be of independent interest: it can also be used to prove related results about structure prediction for QR factorization that are due to Coleman, Edenbrandt, Gilbert, Hare, Johnson, Olesky, Pothen, and van den Driessche.

  3. Risk factors across the eating disorders.

    PubMed

    Hilbert, Anja; Pike, Kathleen M; Goldschmidt, Andrea B; Wilfley, Denise E; Fairburn, Christopher G; Dohm, Faith-Anne; Walsh, B Timothy; Striegel Weissman, Ruth

    2014-12-15

    This study sought to examine risk and onset patterns in anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), and binge eating disorder (BED). Women with AN (n=71), BN (n=66), BED (n=160) and non-psychiatric controls (n=323) were compared retrospectively on risk factors, symptom onset, and diagnostic migration. Eating disorder groups reported greater risk exposure than non-psychiatric controls. AN and BED differed on premorbid personality/behavioral problems, childhood obesity, and family overeating. Risk factors for BN were shared with AN and BED. Dieting was the most common onset symptom in AN, whereas binge eating was most common in BN and BED. Migration between AN and BED was rare, but more frequent between AN and BN and between BN and BED. AN and BED have distinct risk factors and onset patterns, while BN shares similar risk factors and onset patterns with both AN and BED. Results should inform future classification schemes and prevention programs. PMID:25103674

  4. Predictive qualitative risk model of bovine rabies occurrence in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Braga, Guilherme Basseto; Grisi-Filho, José Henrique Hildebrand; Leite, Bruno Meireles; de Sena, Elaine Fátima; Dias, Ricardo Augusto

    2014-03-01

    Bovine rabies remains endemic in Brazil and despite control efforts, the disease still spreads insidiously. The main vector is the hematophagous bat, Desmodus rotundus. The present work aimed to create a predictive qualitative model of the occurrence of bovine rabies in each municipality in 25 of the 27 Brazilian States. The risk of rabies transmission from bats to bovine was estimated using decision-tree models of receptivity and vulnerability. Questionnaires, which covered a number of questions related to the surveillance of possible risk factors, such as bovine rabies outbreaks in the previous year, the presence of bat roosts, bat rabies positivity and environmental changes, were sent to the local veterinary units of each State. The bovine density and geomorphologic features were obtained from national databases and geographic information systems. Of the 433 municipalities presenting bovine rabies outbreaks in 2010, 178 (41.1%) were classified by the model as high risk, 212 (49.0%) were classified as moderate risk, 25 (5.8%) were classified as low risk, whereas the risk was undetermined in 18 municipalities (4.1%). An ROC curve was built to determine if the risk evaluated by the model could adequately discriminate between municipalities with and without rabies occurrence in future years. The risk estimator for the year 2011 was classified as moderately accurate. In the future, these models could allow the targeting of rabies control efforts, with the adoption of control measures directed to the higher risk locations and the optimization of the field veterinary staff deployment throughout the country. Additionally, efforts must be made to encourage continuous surveillance of risk factors. PMID:24433635

  5. Predicting the Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis and Its Age of Onset through Modelling Genetic Risk Variants with Smoking

    PubMed Central

    Scott, Ian C.; Seegobin, Seth D.; Steer, Sophia; Tan, Rachael; Forabosco, Paola; Hinks, Anne; Eyre, Stephen; Morgan, Ann W.; Wilson, Anthony G.; Hocking, Lynne J.; Wordsworth, Paul; Barton, Anne; Worthington, Jane; Cope, Andrew P.; Lewis, Cathryn M.

    2013-01-01

    The improved characterisation of risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) suggests they could be combined to identify individuals at increased disease risks in whom preventive strategies may be evaluated. We aimed to develop an RA prediction model capable of generating clinically relevant predictive data and to determine if it better predicted younger onset RA (YORA). Our novel modelling approach combined odds ratios for 15 four-digit/10 two-digit HLA-DRB1 alleles, 31 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and ever-smoking status in males to determine risk using computer simulation and confidence interval based risk categorisation. Only males were evaluated in our models incorporating smoking as ever-smoking is a significant risk factor for RA in men but not women. We developed multiple models to evaluate each risk factor's impact on prediction. Each model's ability to discriminate anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive RA from controls was evaluated in two cohorts: Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC: 1,516 cases; 1,647 controls); UK RA Genetics Group Consortium (UKRAGG: 2,623 cases; 1,500 controls). HLA and smoking provided strongest prediction with good discrimination evidenced by an HLA-smoking model area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.813 in both WTCCC and UKRAGG. SNPs provided minimal prediction (AUC 0.660 WTCCC/0.617 UKRAGG). Whilst high individual risks were identified, with some cases having estimated lifetime risks of 86%, only a minority overall had substantially increased odds for RA. High risks from the HLA model were associated with YORA (P<0.0001); ever-smoking associated with older onset disease. This latter finding suggests smoking's impact on RA risk manifests later in life. Our modelling demonstrates that combining risk factors provides clinically informative RA prediction; additionally HLA and smoking status can be used to predict the risk of younger and older onset RA, respectively. PMID:24068971

  6. Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

    2016-01-01

    Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09-1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13-1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias-cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40-5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01-1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

  7. Higher TSH can be used as an additional risk factor in prediction of malignancy in euthyroid thyroid nodules evaluated by cytology based on Bethesda system.

    PubMed

    Baser, Husniye; Topaloglu, Oya; Tam, Abbas Ali; Evranos, Berna; Alkan, Afra; Sungu, Nuran; Dumlu, Ersin Gurkan; Ersoy, Reyhan; Cakir, Bekir

    2016-08-01

    Recently, it has been suggested that thyrotropin (TSH) concentration can be used as a marker for prediction of thyroid malignancy. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between TSH levels and prediction of malignancy in euthyroid patients with different Bethesda categories. The data of 1433 euthyroid patients with 3206 thyroid nodules who underwent thyroidectomy were screened retrospectively. The preoperative cytology results, thyroid function tests, thyroid autoantibodies, and presence of histopathological Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) were recorded. Of the 1433 patients, 585 (40.8 %) had malignant and 848 (59.2 %) had benign histopathology. Malignant group had smaller nodule size, elevated TSH levels, and higher rate of presence of HT compared to benign group (p < 0.001, all). Cytology results of 3206 nodules were as follows: 832 nondiagnostic (ND), 1666 benign, 392 atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS), 68 follicular neoplasm/suspicious for follicular neoplasm (FN/SFN), 133 suspicious for malignancy (SM), and 115 malignant. Both SM and malignant cytology groups had higher TSH levels than other 4 Bethesda categories (p < 0.05, all). Benign cytology group had significantly lower TSH levels compared to other cytology groups (p < 0.05, all). Patients with malignant final histopathology in ND and AUS/FLUS cytology groups had significantly higher TSH levels compared to patients with benign final histopathology (p < 0.05, all). Moreover, TSH levels showed to increase from Bethesda categories II to VI. In addition to cytology, higher TSH levels can be used as a supplementary marker in prediction of malignancy in certain Bethesda categories. PMID:26972701

  8. Predicting frequency distribution and influence of sociodemographic and behavioral risk factors of Schistosoma mansoni infection and analysis of co-infection with intestinal parasites.

    PubMed

    Rollemberg, Carla V V; Silva, Marília M B L; Rollemberg, Karla C; Amorim, Fábio R; Lessa, Nayanna M N; Santos, Marcos D S; Souza, Acácia M B; Melo, Enaldo V; Almeida, Roque P; Silva, Ângela M; Werneck, Guilherme L; Santos, Mario A; Almeida, José A P; Jesus, Amélia R

    2015-01-01

    Geospatial analysis was used to study the epidemiology of Schistosoma mansoni, intestinal parasites and co-infections in an area (Ilha das Flores) in Sergipe, Brazil. We collected individually georeferenced sociodemographic, behavioral and parasitological data from 500 subjects, analyzed them by conventional statistics, and produced risk maps by Kernel estimation. The prevalence rates found were: S. mansoni (24.0%), Trichuris trichiura (54.8%), Ascaris lumbricoides (49.2%), Hookworm (17.6%) and Entamoeba histolytica (7.0%). Only 59/500 (11.8%) individuals did not present any of these infections, whereas 279/500 (55.8%) were simultaneously infected by three or more parasites. We observed associations between S. mansoni infection and various variables such as male gender, being rice farmer or fisherman, low educational level, low income, water contact and drinking untreated water. The Kernel estimator indicated that high-risk areas coincide with the poorest regions of the villages as well as with the part of the villages without an adequate sewage system. We also noted associations between both A. lumbricoides and hookworm infections with low education and low income. A. lumbricoides infection and T. trichiura infection were both associated with drinking untreated water and residential open-air sewage. These findings call for an integrated approach to effectively control multiple parasitic infections. PMID:26054512

  9. Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

    2016-04-01

    The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by

  10. Predicting tissue specific transcription factor binding sites

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Studies of gene regulation often utilize genome-wide predictions of transcription factor (TF) binding sites. Most existing prediction methods are based on sequence information alone, ignoring biological contexts such as developmental stages and tissue types. Experimental methods to study in vivo binding, including ChIP-chip and ChIP-seq, can only study one transcription factor in a single cell type and under a specific condition in each experiment, and therefore cannot scale to determine the full set of regulatory interactions in mammalian transcriptional regulatory networks. Results We developed a new computational approach, PIPES, for predicting tissue-specific TF binding. PIPES integrates in vitro protein binding microarrays (PBMs), sequence conservation and tissue-specific epigenetic (DNase I hypersensitivity) information. We demonstrate that PIPES improves over existing methods on distinguishing between in vivo bound and unbound sequences using ChIP-seq data for 11 mouse TFs. In addition, our predictions are in good agreement with current knowledge of tissue-specific TF regulation. Conclusions We provide a systematic map of computationally predicted tissue-specific binding targets for 284 mouse TFs across 55 tissue/cell types. Such comprehensive resource is useful for researchers studying gene regulation. PMID:24238150

  11. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Butler, J.P.

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often by as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per=kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessment for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  12. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Biwer, B M; Butler, J P

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations. PMID:10765454

  13. Event-Specific Risk Factors Predicting Episodes of Unprotected Anal Intercourse with Male Nonregular Partners among Men Who Have Sex with Men Using Case-Crossover Study Design

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jinghua; Lau, Joseph T. F.; Gu, Jing; Hao, Chun; Lai, Coco H. Y.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated event-specific factors that determine episodes of unprotected and protected anal intercourse (UAI and PAI) among 215 men who have sex with men (MSM), who used condoms inconsistently with nonregular partners (NRP) in the last six months, in Hong Kong. A case-crossover study design was used. Lower likelihood of episodes involving UAI with NRP was associated with (1) five partner attributes (NRP were <35 years old, at least three previous anal sex experiences with the NRP, perception that participant and the NRP had asymmetrical sexual experience, perception that the NRP was feminine, and liking toward the NRP; OR = 0.16–0.52), (2) six situational variables (the participant having had UAI with another man in the last week, having discussed condom use, perception that the NRP liked to use condom, partner's suggestion to have PAI, participant's suggestion to have PAI, and participant's plan to use condoms; OR = 0.11–0.39), and (3) four environmental/setting variables (condoms already placed at the venue, display of condom use promotion materials, participant's possession of a condom, and the NRP possessed a condom; OR = 0.27–0.45). HIV prevention targeting MSM should focus on event-specific protective factors, which may be different from those obtained from studies distinguishing condom users versus nonusers. PMID:25136589

  14. Prediction of cardiac risk in patients undergoing vascular surgery

    SciTech Connect

    Morise, A.P.; McDowell, D.E.; Savrin, R.A.; Goodwin, C.A.; Gabrielle, O.F.; Oliver, F.N.; Nullet, F.R.; Bekheit, S.; Jain, A.C.

    1987-03-01

    In an attempt to determine whether noninvasive cardiac testing could be used to assess cardiac risk in patients undergoing surgery for vascular disease, the authors studied 96 patients. Seventy-seven patients eventually underwent major vascular surgery with 11 (14%) experiencing a significant cardiac complication. Thallium imaging was much more likely to be positive (p less than 0.01) in patients with a cardiac complication; however, there was a significant number of patients with cardiac complications who had a positive history or electrocardiogram for myocardial infarction. When grouped by complication and history of infarction, thallium imaging, if negative, correctly predicted low cardiac risk in the group with a history of infarction. Thallium imaging, however, did not provide a clear separation of risk in those without a history of infarction. Age and coronary angiography, on the other hand, did reveal significant differences within the group without a history of infarction. The resting radionuclide ejection fraction followed a similar pattern to thallium imaging. It is concluded that a positive history of myocardial infarction at any time in the past is the strongest risk predictor in this population and that the predictive value of noninvasive testing is dependent on this factor. Considering these findings, a proposed scheme for assessing risk that will require further validation is presented.

  15. Putative Risk Factors in Developmental Dyslexia: A Case-Control Study of Italian Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mascheretti, Sara; Marino, Cecilia; Simone, Daniela; Quadrelli, Ermanno; Riva, Valentina; Cellino, Maria Rosaria; Maziade, Michel; Brombin, Chiara; Battaglia, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Although dyslexia runs in families, several putative risk factors that cannot be immediately identified as genetic predict reading disability. Published studies analyzed one or a few risk factors at a time, with relatively inconsistent results. To assess the contribution of several putative risk factors to the development of dyslexia, we conducted…

  16. Childhood Risk Factors for Lifetime Anorexia Nervosa by Age 30 Years in a National Birth Cohort

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nicholls, Dasha E.; Viner, Russell M.

    2009-01-01

    Whether previously identified childhood risk factors for anorexia nervosa (AN) predict self-reported lifetime AN by age 30 is examined. The cohort confirmed four risk and two protective factors out of the 22 suggested risk factors. The study used data from the 1970 British Cohort Study.

  17. An update on risk factors for drug-induced arrhythmias.

    PubMed

    Vlachos, Konstantinos; Georgopoulos, Stamatis; Efremidis, Michael; Sideris, Antonios; Letsas, Konstantinos P

    2016-01-01

    A variety of drugs, either anti-arrhythmics or non-antiarrhythmics, have been associated with drug-induced arrhythmias. Drug-induced arrhythmias are usually observed in the presence of long QT interval or Brugada electrocardiographic pattern. Clinical risk factors, such as female gender, structural heart disease, metabolic and electrolyte abnormalities, bradycardia and conduction disease, increased drug bioavailability, and silent channelopathies act as ''effect amplifiers'' which can make an otherwise relatively safe drug dangerous with regard to risk for polymorphic ventricular tachycardia in the setting of QT interval prolongation. A drug-induced type 1 electrocardiographic pattern of Brugada syndrome is considered highly proarrhythmic. Specific electrocardiographic markers including the corrected QT interval, QRS duration, Tpeak-Tend/QT ratio, and others may predict the risk of arrhythmias in both situations. The present review highlights on the current clinical and electrocardiographic risk factors for prediction of drug-induced arrhythmias. PMID:26460585

  18. Assessing absolute changes in breast cancer risk due to modifiable risk factors.

    PubMed

    Quante, Anne S; Herz, Julia; Whittemore, Alice S; Fischer, Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Terry, Mary Beth

    2015-07-01

    Clinical risk assessment involves absolute risk measures, but information on modifying risk and preventing cancer is often communicated in relative terms. To illustrate the potential impact of risk factor modification in model-based risk assessment, we evaluated the performance of the IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, with and without current body mass index (BMI), for predicting future breast cancer occurrence in a prospective cohort of 665 postmenopausal women. Overall, IBIS's accuracy (overall agreement between observed and assigned risks) and discrimination (AUC concordance between assigned risks and outcomes) were similar with and without the BMI information. However, in women with BMI > 25 kg/m(2), adding BMI information improved discrimination (AUC = 63.9 % and 61.4 % with and without BMI, P < 0.001). The model-assigned 10-year risk difference for a woman with high (27 kg/m(2)) versus low (21 kg/m(2)) BMI was only 0.3 % for a woman with neither affected first-degree relatives nor BRCA1 mutation, compared to 4.5 % for a mutation carrier with three such relatives. This contrast illustrates the value of using information on modifiable risk factors in risk assessment and in sharing information with patients of their absolute risks with and without modifiable risk factors. PMID:26012643

  19. Relative risk factors in detecting adolescent drug abuse.

    PubMed

    Swadi, H

    1992-02-01

    Detecting adolescent drug abuse remains to be a difficult proposition because of its secret nature. This paper investigates the significance of other factors as indicators of possible drug use by an adolescent. Peer drug use, suspension at school, law infringements, truancy, conflict with parents, alcohol use and cigarette smoking were the relative risk factors investigated among 953 adolescents. The most predictive of those was peer drug use. The more of those factors were present in an adolescent, the higher the risk of possible drug use. PMID:1559431

  20. Risk Factors and Levels of Risk for High School Dropouts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suh, Suhyun; Suh, Jingyo

    2007-01-01

    The study in this article identifies three major risk categories of high school dropouts and evaluates the impact of possible prevention strategies. As students accumulate these risks, they became more likely to drop out and prevention programs become less effective. Additionally, it was found that factors influencing the decision to drop out vary…

  1. Risk Factors for Complications of Traumatic Injuries.

    PubMed

    de Aguiar Júnior, Wagner; Saleh, Carmen Mohamad Rida; Whitaker, Iveth Yamaguchi

    2016-01-01

    Complications in hospitalized trauma patients are major causes of morbidity and mortality. The aims of this study were to identify the in-hospital trauma patients' complications and identify the risk factors for complications in this population. A retrospective analysis was conducted in a sample from a Brazilian hospital. The sample consisted of 407 patients, 194 (47.66%) of whom had records of complications. The most common complications were infections (41.80%). The risk factors related to the complications were age, length of hospital stay, external causes, and injury severity. The complications were frequent in this sample, and the risk for complications was characterized by multiple factors. PMID:27618375

  2. Stroke risk assessment in atrial fibrillation: risk factors and markers of atrial myopathy.

    PubMed

    Calenda, Brandon W; Fuster, Valentin; Halperin, Jonathan L; Granger, Christopher B

    2016-09-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a complex phenomenon associated with electrical, mechanical, and structural abnormalities of the atria. Ischaemic stroke in AF is only partially understood, but the mechanisms are known to be related to the atrial substrate as well as the atrial rhythm. The temporal dissociation between timing of AF and occurrence of stroke has led to the hypothesis that fibrotic, prothrombotic atrial tissue is an important cause of thrombus formation in patients with AF, independent of the atrial rhythm. Current stroke risk scores are practical, but limited in their capacity to predict stroke risk accurately in individual patients. Stroke prediction might be improved by the addition of emerging risk factors, many of which are expressions of atrial fibrosis. The use of novel parameters, including clinical criteria, biomarkers, and imaging data, might improve stroke risk prediction and inform on optimal treatment for patients with AF and perhaps individuals only at risk of AF. PMID:27383079

  3. Risk Factors for Suicidality among Clients with Schizophrenia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwartz, Robert C.; Cohen, Benjamin N.

    2001-01-01

    Investigates risk factors for current suicidality in clients diagnosed with schizophrenia (N=223). Results indicate that severity of depressive symptoms most strongly correlated with degree of suicidality. Younger age and recent traumatic stress each significantly predicted suicidality independent of depressive symptoms. Suggests that the…

  4. Risk Factors for Adolescent Pregnancy Reports among African American Males

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller-Johnson, Shari; C. Winn, Donna-Marie; Coie, John D.; Malone, Patrick S.; Lochman, John

    2004-01-01

    This study examined childhood and adolescent risk factors for males' reports of getting someone pregnant during adolescence. These questions were examined in an urban sample of 335 African American males involved in a prospective, longitudinal study. Childhood aggression significantly predicted reported pregnancies during adolescence. Boys who…

  5. Fatness, fitness, and cardiometabolic risk factors among sixth grade youth

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether cardio metabolic risk factors are predicted by fitness or fatness among adolescents. Participants are 4955 (2614 female) 6th grade students with complete data from 42 US middle schools. Fasting blood samples were analyzed for total cholesterol, high d...

  6. Adolescents Who Drive Under the Influence: Correlates and Risk Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mayton, Daniel M., II; And Others

    This study was designed to determine the correlates or potential risk factors which predict whether an adolescent who drinks or uses drugs will refrain from driving under the influence, or will drive in this condition. A group of 426 rural high school seniors completed a questionnaire which assessed drug use patterns and previously identified risk…

  7. Learning Risk Factors for Suicide: A Scenario-Based Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Madson, Laura; Vas, Corey J.

    2003-01-01

    We created a classroom activity to illustrate factors that may predict suicide. In the activity, students rank 4 fictional individuals in terms of their relative risk for attempting or committing suicide. Students described the activity as "eye-opening," and students who participated in the activity learned more about the warning signs of an…

  8. Risk Factors in Adolescent Hypertension.

    PubMed

    Ewald, D Rose; Haldeman PhD, Lauren A

    2016-01-01

    Hypertension is a complex and multifaceted disease, with many contributing factors. While diet and nutrition are important influences, the confounding effects of overweight and obesity, metabolic and genetic factors, racial and ethnic predispositions, socioeconomic status, cultural influences, growth rate, and pubertal stage have even more influence and make diagnosis quite challenging. The prevalence of hypertension in adolescents far exceeds the numbers who have been diagnosed; studies have found that 75% or more go undiagnosed. This literature review summarizes the challenges of blood pressure classification in adolescents, discusses the impact of these confounding influences, and identifies actions that will improve diagnosis and treatment outcomes. PMID:27335997

  9. Risk Factors in Adolescent Hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Ewald, D. Rose; Haldeman, Lauren A.

    2016-01-01

    Hypertension is a complex and multifaceted disease, with many contributing factors. While diet and nutrition are important influences, the confounding effects of overweight and obesity, metabolic and genetic factors, racial and ethnic predispositions, socioeconomic status, cultural influences, growth rate, and pubertal stage have even more influence and make diagnosis quite challenging. The prevalence of hypertension in adolescents far exceeds the numbers who have been diagnosed; studies have found that 75% or more go undiagnosed. This literature review summarizes the challenges of blood pressure classification in adolescents, discusses the impact of these confounding influences, and identifies actions that will improve diagnosis and treatment outcomes. PMID:27335997

  10. HUMAN PROSTATE CANCER RISK FACTORS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Prostate cancer has the highest prevalence of any non-skin cancer in the human body, with similar likelihood of neoplastic foci found within the prostates of men around the world regardless of diet, occupation, lifestyle, or other factors. Essentially all men with circulating an...

  11. Factors predictive of survival in ampullary carcinoma.

    PubMed Central

    Howe, J R; Klimstra, D S; Moccia, R D; Conlon, K C; Brennan, M F

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To review the recent Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center experience with adenocarcinoma of the ampulla of Vater and to identify clinicopathologic factors that have an impact on patient survival. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The prognosis for patients with tumors of the ampulla of Vater is improved relative to other periampullary neoplasms. Identification of independent prognostic factors in ampullary tumors has been limited by small numbers of tumors and a lack of pathologic review. METHODS: Data were collected prospectively for patients presenting with periampullary carcinomas to the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between October 15, 1983 and June 30, 1995. The correlation between clinicopathologic variables and survival of ampullary carcinoma was tested by the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression. Survival of patients with periampullary adenocarcinomas was compared by the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: In 123 patients presenting with ampullary carcinoma, 101 tumors (82.1%) were resected. Factors significantly correlated with improved survival were resection (p < 0.01), and in resected tumors, negative nodes (p = 0.04) and margins (p = 0.02) independently predicted for improved survival. In periampullary tumors, the highest rates of resection and overall survival (median, 43.6 months) were found in ampullary carcinomas. CONCLUSIONS: Factors predictive of improved survival in ampullary carcinoma include resection, negative margins, and negative nodes. Improved overall survival in ampullary relative to periampullary adenocarcinoma is due in part to a significantly higher rate of resection. Images Figure 1. PMID:9671071

  12. [Midwives' perception of reproductive risk factors].

    PubMed

    García-Barrios, C; Castañeda-Camey, X; Romero-Guerrero, X; González-Hernández, D; Langer-Glas, A

    1993-01-01

    Midwives in rural areas of the State of Morelos are one of the most important resources used by rural women for health care of pregnancy, delivery and the puerperium. This work was aimed at identifying midwives perceptions of pregnant women's risk factors, in order to include this knowledge in reproductive health programs which articulate institutional and traditional health systems. We applied a questionnaire to all midwives in the Municipalities of Ocuituco, yecapixtla and Zacualpan, Morelos (n = 35). Four key informants were selected and interviewed. These instruments enabled us to measure variability in perception of risk factors. Knowledge of risk factors is defective among midwives. Previous training made a big difference. Sixty three per cent of midwives who attended training courses are better qualified from an academic medicine point of view. Only 28.7 per cent of non-trained midwives (43% for both groups), indicating that sociocultural aspects prevail over technical training in midwives perceptions of reproductive risk factors. PMID:8470023

  13. Pneumococcal Disease: Risk Factors and Transmission

    MedlinePlus

    ... Foundation for Infectious Diseases Sepsis Risk Factors and Transmission Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On this ... the brain and spinal cord) Who smoke cigarettes Transmission Pneumococcal bacteria spread from person-to-person by ...

  14. Heart Risk Factors Rise Before Menopause

    MedlinePlus

    ... an associate professor of pediatric endocrinology at the University of Virginia. In the past, he said, experts believed that a rapid increase in heart disease and stroke risk factors took place in women after menopause. They thought ...

  15. Psychosocial Factors in Diabetes and Cardiovascular Risk.

    PubMed

    Hackett, Ruth A; Steptoe, Andrew

    2016-10-01

    Type 2 diabetes is a chronic disease that is increasing in prevalence globally. Cardiovascular disease is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in diabetes, and lifestyle and clinical risk factors do not fully account for the link between the conditions. This article provides an overview of the evidence concerning the role of psychosocial stress factors in diabetes risk, as well as in cardiovascular complications in people with existing diabetes. Several types of psychosocial factors are discussed including depression, other types of emotional distress, exposure to stressful conditions, and personality traits. The potential behavioral and biological pathways linking psychosocial factors to diabetes are presented and implications for patient care are highlighted. PMID:27566328

  16. Osteoporosis Risk Factors in Eighth Grade Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lysen, Victoria C.; Walker, Robert

    1997-01-01

    Presents findings from food frequency questionnaires and surveys of 138 Midwestern eighth-grade student-parent pairs. The study examined the incidence of modifiable and nonmodifiable osteoporosis risk factors and compared gender differences. Data analysis indicated that many adolescents possessed several modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors…

  17. Major Risk Factors for Heart Disease: Diabetes

    MedlinePlus

    ... of people who have diabetes die of some type of cardiovascular disease. Diabetic women are at especially high risk for dying ... aware of my risk factors, such as being diabetic and having a family history of heart ... levels—you are more likely to develop type 2 diabetes. But you can take steps to ...

  18. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    PubMed Central

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  19. Cancer associated thrombosis: risk factors and outcomes.

    PubMed

    Eichinger, Sabine

    2016-04-01

    Deep vein thrombosis of the leg and pulmonary embolism are frequent diseases and cancer is one of their most important risk factors. Patients with cancer also have a higher prevalence of venous thrombosis located in other parts than in the legs and/or in unusual sites including upper extremity, splanchnic or cerebral veins. Cancer also affects the risk of arterial thrombotic events particularly in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms and in vascular endothelial growth factor receptor inhibitor recipients. Several risk factors need to interact to trigger thrombosis. In addition to common risk factors such as surgery, hospitalisation, infection and genetic coagulation disorders, the thrombotic risk is also driven and modified by cancer-specific factors including type, histology, and stage of the malignancy, cancer treatment and certain biomarkers. A venous thrombotic event in a cancer patient has serious consequences as the risk of recurrent thrombosis, the risk of bleeding during anticoagulation and hospitalisation rates are all increased. Survival of cancer patients with thrombosis is worse compared to that of cancer patients without thrombosis, and thrombosis is a leading direct cause of death in cancer patients. PMID:27067965

  20. Risk Factors for Homelessness Among US Veterans

    PubMed Central

    Tsai, Jack; Rosenheck, Robert A.

    2015-01-01

    Homelessness among US veterans has been a focus of research for over 3 decades. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, this is the first systematic review to summarize research on risk factors for homelessness among US veterans and to evaluate the evidence for these risk factors. Thirty-one studies published from 1987 to 2014 were divided into 3 categories: more rigorous studies, less rigorous studies, and studies comparing homeless veterans with homeless nonveterans. The strongest and most consistent risk factors were substance use disorders and mental illness, followed by low income and other income-related factors. There was some evidence that social isolation, adverse childhood experiences, and past incarceration were also important risk factors. Veterans, especially those who served since the advent of the all-volunteer force, were at greater risk for homelessness than other adults. Homeless veterans were generally older, better educated, and more likely to be male, married/have been married, and to have health insurance coverage than other homeless adults. More studies simultaneously addressing premilitary, military, and postmilitary risk factors for veteran homelessness are needed. This review identifies substance use disorders, mental illness, and low income as targets for policies and programs in efforts to end homelessness among veterans. PMID:25595171

  1. Risk factors predisposing to congenital heart defects

    PubMed Central

    Ul Haq, Faheem; Jalil, Fatima; Hashmi, Saman; Jumani, Maliha Iqbal; Imdad, Aamer; Jabeen, Mehnaz; Hashmi, Javad Tauseef; Irfan, Furqan Bin; Imran, Muhammad; Atiq, Mehnaz

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: Congenital heart disease (CHD) is associated with multiple risk factors, consanguinity may be one such significant factor. The role of consanguinity in the etiology of CHD is supported by inbreeding studies, which demonstrate an autosomal recessive pattern of inheritance of some congenital heart defects. This study was done to find out the risk factors for CHD. Methods: A case-control study was done on pediatric patients at a tertiary care hospital, Aga Khan University Hospital, located in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 500 patients, 250 cases and 250 controls were included in the study. Results: Amongst the 250 cases (i.e. those diagnosed with CHD), 122 patients (48.8%) were born of consanguineous marriages while in the controls (i.e. non-CHD) only 72 patients (28.9%) showed a consanguinity amongst parents. On multivariate analysis, consanguinity emerged as an independent risk factor for CHD; adjusted odds ratio 2.59 (95% C. I. 1.73 - 3.87). Other risk factors included low birth weight, maternal co-morbidities, family history of CHD and first born child. On the other hand, medications used by the mother during the index pregnancy, maternal age and gender of the child did not significantly increase the risk of developing CHD. Conclusions: Analyses of our results show that parental consanguinity, family history of CHD, maternal co-morbidities, first born child and low birth weight are independent risk factors for CHD. PMID:21976868

  2. Toddler self-regulation skills predict risk for pediatric obesity

    PubMed Central

    Graziano, Paulo A.; Calkins, Susan D.; Keane, Susan P.

    2010-01-01

    Objective To investigate the role of early self-regulation skills, including emotion regulation, sustained attention, and inhibitory control/reward sensitivity, in predicting pediatric obesity in early childhood. Method Participants for this study included 57 children (25 girls) obtained from three different cohorts participating in a larger ongoing longitudinal study. At 2 years of age, participants participated in several laboratory tasks designed to assess their self-regulation abilities. Height and weight measures were collected when children were 2 and 5.5 years of age. Results Self-regulation skills in toddlerhood were predictive of both normal variations in BMI development and pediatric obesity. Specifically, emotion regulation was the primary self-regulation skill involved in predicting normative changes in BMI as no effects were found for sustained attention or inhibitory control/reward sensitivity. However, both emotion regulation and inhibitory control/reward sensitivity predicted more extreme weight problems (i.e., pediatric obesity), even after controlling for 2yr BMI. Thus, toddlers with poorer emotion regulation skills and lower inhibitory control skills/higher reward sensitivity were more likely to be classified as overweight/at risk at 5.5 years of age. Conclusion Early self-regulation difficulties across domains (i.e., behavioral, and emotional) represent significant individual risk factors for the development of pediatric obesity. Mechanisms by which early self-regulation skills may contribute to the development of pediatric obesity are discussed. PMID:20065961

  3. Early dropout predictive factors in obesity treatment

    PubMed Central

    Michelini, Ilaria; Falchi, Anna Giulia; Grecchi, Ilaria; Montagna, Elisabetta; De Silvestri, Annalisa; Tinelli, Carmine

    2014-01-01

    Diet attrition and failure of long term treatment are very frequent in obese patients. This study aimed to identify pre-treatment variables determining dropout and to customise the characteristics of those most likely to abandon the program before treatment, thus making it possible to modify the therapy to increase compliance. A total of 146 outpatients were consecutively enrolled; 73 patients followed a prescriptive diet while 73 followed a novel brief group Cognitive Behavioural Treatment (CBT) in addition to prescriptive diet. The two interventions lasted for six months. Anthropometric, demographic, psychological parameters and feeding behaviour were assessed, the last two with the Italian instrument VCAO Ansisa; than, a semi-structured interview was performed on motivation to lose weight. To identify the baseline dropout risk factors among these parameters, univariate and multivariate logistic models were used. Comparison of the results in the two different treatments showed a higher attrition rate in CBT group, despite no statistically significant difference between the two treatment arms (P = 0.127). Dropout patients did not differ significantly from those who did not dropout with regards to sex, age, Body Mass Index (BMI), history of cycling, education, work and marriage. Regardless of weight loss, the most important factor that determines the dropout appears to be a high level of stress revealed by General Health Questionnaire-28 items (GHQ-28) score within VCAO test. The identification of hindering factors during the assessment is fundamental to reduce the dropout risk. For subjects at risk, it would be useful to dedicate a stress management program before beginning a dietary restriction. PMID:24611111

  4. Ectasia risk factors in refractive surgery

    PubMed Central

    Santhiago, Marcony R; Giacomin, Natalia T; Smadja, David; Bechara, Samir J

    2016-01-01

    This review outlines risk factors of post-laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) ectasia that can be detected preoperatively and presents a new metric to be considered in the detection of ectasia risk. Relevant factors in refractive surgery screening include the analysis of intrinsic biomechanical properties (information obtained from corneal topography/tomography and patient’s age), as well as the analysis of alterable biomechanical properties (information obtained from the amount of tissue altered by surgery and the remaining load-bearing tissue). Corneal topography patterns of placido disk seem to play a pivotal role as a surrogate of corneal strength, and abnormal corneal topography remains to be the most important identifiable risk factor for ectasia. Information derived from tomography, such as pachymetric and epithelial maps as well as computational strategies, to help in the detection of keratoconus is additional and relevant. High percentage of tissue altered (PTA) is the most robust risk factor for ectasia after LASIK in patients with normal preoperative corneal topography. Compared to specific residual stromal bed (RSB) or central corneal thickness values, percentage of tissue altered likely provides a more individualized measure of biomechanical alteration because it considers the relationship between thickness, tissue altered through ablation and flap creation, and ultimate RSB thickness. Other recognized risk factors include low RSB, thin cornea, and high myopia. Age is also a very important risk factor and still remains as one of the most overlooked ones. A comprehensive screening approach with the Ectasia Risk Score System, which evaluates multiple risk factors simultaneously, is also a helpful tool in the screening strategy. PMID:27143849

  5. Ectasia risk factors in refractive surgery.

    PubMed

    Santhiago, Marcony R; Giacomin, Natalia T; Smadja, David; Bechara, Samir J

    2016-01-01

    This review outlines risk factors of post-laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) ectasia that can be detected preoperatively and presents a new metric to be considered in the detection of ectasia risk. Relevant factors in refractive surgery screening include the analysis of intrinsic biomechanical properties (information obtained from corneal topography/tomography and patient's age), as well as the analysis of alterable biomechanical properties (information obtained from the amount of tissue altered by surgery and the remaining load-bearing tissue). Corneal topography patterns of placido disk seem to play a pivotal role as a surrogate of corneal strength, and abnormal corneal topography remains to be the most important identifiable risk factor for ectasia. Information derived from tomography, such as pachymetric and epithelial maps as well as computational strategies, to help in the detection of keratoconus is additional and relevant. High percentage of tissue altered (PTA) is the most robust risk factor for ectasia after LASIK in patients with normal preoperative corneal topography. Compared to specific residual stromal bed (RSB) or central corneal thickness values, percentage of tissue altered likely provides a more individualized measure of biomechanical alteration because it considers the relationship between thickness, tissue altered through ablation and flap creation, and ultimate RSB thickness. Other recognized risk factors include low RSB, thin cornea, and high myopia. Age is also a very important risk factor and still remains as one of the most overlooked ones. A comprehensive screening approach with the Ectasia Risk Score System, which evaluates multiple risk factors simultaneously, is also a helpful tool in the screening strategy. PMID:27143849

  6. Can Childhood Factors Predict Workplace Deviance?

    PubMed

    Piquero, Nicole Leeper; Moffitt, Terrie E

    2014-07-01

    Compared to the more common focus on street crime, empirical research on workplace deviance has been hampered by highly select samples, cross-sectional research designs, and limited inclusion of relevant predictor variables that bear on important theoretical debates. A key debate concerns the extent to which childhood conduct-problem trajectories influence crime over the life-course, including adults' workplace crime, whether childhood low self-control is a more important determinant than trajectories, and/or whether each or both of these childhood factors relate to later criminal activity. This paper provides evidence on this debate by examining two types of workplace deviance: production and property deviance separately for males and females. We use data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, a birth cohort followed into adulthood, to examine how childhood factors (conduct-problem trajectories and low self-control) and then adult job characteristics predict workplace deviance at age 32. Analyses revealed that none of the childhood factors matter for predicting female deviance in the workplace but that conduct-problem trajectories did account for male workplace deviance. PMID:24882937

  7. Can Childhood Factors Predict Workplace Deviance?

    PubMed Central

    Piquero, Nicole Leeper; Moffitt, Terrie E.

    2013-01-01

    Compared to the more common focus on street crime, empirical research on workplace deviance has been hampered by highly select samples, cross-sectional research designs, and limited inclusion of relevant predictor variables that bear on important theoretical debates. A key debate concerns the extent to which childhood conduct-problem trajectories influence crime over the life-course, including adults’ workplace crime, whether childhood low self-control is a more important determinant than trajectories, and/or whether each or both of these childhood factors relate to later criminal activity. This paper provides evidence on this debate by examining two types of workplace deviance: production and property deviance separately for males and females. We use data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, a birth cohort followed into adulthood, to examine how childhood factors (conduct-problem trajectories and low self-control) and then adult job characteristics predict workplace deviance at age 32. Analyses revealed that none of the childhood factors matter for predicting female deviance in the workplace but that conduct-problem trajectories did account for male workplace deviance. PMID:24882937

  8. [Epidemiology and risk factors in legionellosis].

    PubMed

    Povová, J; Zlámalová, R; Hozák, A; Martinková, I; Matějková, M; Janout, V

    2014-11-01

    Legionella was discovered in the first half of the 20th century. The main representative of the genus is the bacterial species Legionella pneumophila. Legionella can cause a mild disease with fever but also severe to fatal pneumonia. At highest risk are individuals with an underlying disease, immunosuppressed patients or individuals exposed to other risk factors (e.g. users of addictive substances). Information on the etiology and epidemiology of legionellosis is presented. Selected risk factors are described as well as preventive measures to be taken in water supply and cooling systems. In conclusion, emphasis is placed on the prevention. PMID:25523221

  9. Sensitivity of risk estimates to wildlife bioaccumulation factors in ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Karustis, C.G.; Brewer, R.A.

    1995-12-31

    The concept of conservatism in risk assessment is well established. However, overly conservative assumptions may result in risk estimates that incorrectly predict remediation goals. Therefore, realistic assumptions should be applied in risk assessment whenever possible. A sensitivity analysis was performed on conservative (i.e. bioaccumulation factor = 1) and scientifically-derived wildlife bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) utilized to calculate risks during a terrestrial ecological risk assessment (ERA). In the first approach, 100% bioaccumulation of contaminants was assumed to estimate the transfer of contaminants through the terrestrial food chain. In the second approach, scientifically-derived BAFs were selected from the literature. For one of the measurement species selected, total risks calculated during the first approach were higher than those calculated during the second approach by two orders of magnitude. However, potential risks due to individual contaminants were not necessarily higher using the conservative approach. Potential risk due to contaminants with low actual bioaccumulation were exaggerated while potential risks due to contaminants with greater than 100% bioaccumulation were underestimated. Therefore, the use of a default of 100% bioaccumulation (BAF = 1) for all contaminants encountered during an ERA could result in cases where contaminants are incorrectly identified as risk drivers, and the calculation of incorrect ecological risk-based cleanup goals. The authors suggest using site-specific or literature-derived BAFs whenever possible and realistic BAF estimates, based upon factors such as log K{sub ow}, when BAFs are unavailable.

  10. Are the major risk/need factors predictive of both female and male reoffending?: a test with the eight domains of the level of service/case management inventory.

    PubMed

    Andrews, Donald A; Guzzo, Lina; Raynor, Peter; Rowe, Robert C; Rettinger, L Jill; Brews, Albert; Wormith, J Stephen

    2012-02-01

    The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) and the Youth version (YLS/CMI) generate an assessment of risk/need across eight domains that are considered to be relevant for girls and boys and for women and men. Aggregated across five data sets, the predictive validity of each of the eight domains was gender-neutral. The composite total score (LS/CMI total risk/need) was strongly associated with the recidivism of males (mean r = .39, mean AUC = .746) and very strongly associated with the recidivism of females (mean r = .53, mean AUC = .827). The enhanced validity of LS total risk/need with females was traced to the exceptional validity of Substance Abuse with females. The intra-data set conclusions survived the introduction of two very large samples composed of female offenders exclusively. Finally, the mean incremental contributions of gender and the gender-by-risk level interactions in the prediction of criminal recidivism were minimal compared to the relatively strong validity of the LS/CMI risk level. Although the variance explained by gender was minimal and although high-risk cases were high-risk cases regardless of gender, the recidivism rates of lower risk females were lower than the recidivism rates of lower risk males, suggesting possible implications for test interpretation and policy. PMID:21320860

  11. A Model to Predict the Risk of Keratinocyte Carcinomas.

    PubMed

    Whiteman, David C; Thompson, Bridie S; Thrift, Aaron P; Hughes, Maria-Celia; Muranushi, Chiho; Neale, Rachel E; Green, Adele C; Olsen, Catherine M

    2016-06-01

    Basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin are the commonest cancers in humans, yet no validated tools exist to estimate future risks of developing keratinocyte carcinomas. To develop a prediction tool, we used baseline data from a prospective cohort study (n = 38,726) in Queensland, Australia, and used data linkage to capture all surgically excised keratinocyte carcinomas arising within the cohort. Predictive factors were identified through stepwise logistic regression models. In secondary analyses, we derived separate models within strata of prior skin cancer history, age, and sex. The primary model included terms for 10 items. Factors with the strongest effects were >20 prior skin cancers excised (odds ratio 8.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 6.73-10.91), >50 skin lesions destroyed (odds ratio 3.37, 95% CI 2.85-3.99), age ≥ 70 years (odds ratio 3.47, 95% CI 2.53-4.77), and fair skin color (odds ratio 1.75, 95% CI 1.42-2.15). Discrimination in the validation dataset was high (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.80, 95% CI 0.79-0.81) and the model appeared well calibrated. Among those reporting no prior history of skin cancer, a similar model with 10 factors predicted keratinocyte carcinoma events with reasonable discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.72, 95% CI 0.70-0.75). Algorithms using self-reported patient data have high accuracy for predicting risks of keratinocyte carcinomas. PMID:26908057

  12. Predicting the use of Individualized Risk Assessment for Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Bartle-Haring, Suzanne; Toviessi, Paula; Katafiasz, Heather

    2008-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the decision to obtain individualized risk assessment after a breast cancer education session. Methods A sample of both African American and Caucasian women was used to determine if there were differences by race/ethnicity in uptake of the assessment and differences in the variables that were most predictive of uptake. The sample included 166 women between the ages of 18 and 80. Sixty-two percent of the sample were African American women. Key Findings The results suggested that African American women and Caucasian women used different factors and used other factors differently to decide whether or not to obtain an individualized risk assessment. Conclusions and Implications These results are discussed within the context of health disparities among ethnic minority and Caucasian women with implications for breast cancer control programs. The results of this study would suggest that knowledge alone does not lead to opting for a personalized risk assessment, and that African American and Caucasian women use different pieces of information, or information differently to make decision about getting more personalized information about risk. PMID:18319147

  13. Mediterranean Diet and Cardiovascular Risk: Beyond Traditional Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Delgado-Lista, Javier; Perez-Martinez, Pablo; Garcia-Rios, Antonio; Perez-Caballero, Ana I; Perez-Jimenez, Francisco; Lopez-Miranda, Jose

    2016-04-01

    A strict adherence to the Mediterranean Diet (MedDiet) has repeatedly been linked to a low risk of cardiovascular disease in several situations. Initially, the mechanisms considered as possible causes of this were based on the effects of this dietary pattern on the so-called traditional risk factors (especially lipids and blood pressure). However, the high relative reduction in the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality were not proportional to the limited findings about regulation of those traditional risk factors. In addition to several studies confirming the above effects, current research on the MedDiet is being focused on defining its effects on non-traditional risk factors, such as endothelial function, inflammation, oxidative stress, or on controlling the conditions which predispose people to cardiovascular events, such as obesity, metabolic syndrome or type 2 diabetes mellitus. In the current article, after briefly reviewing the known effects of the MedDiet on the traditional risk factors, we will mainly focus on reviewing the current evidence about the effects that this dietary pattern exerts on alternative factors, including postprandial lipemia or coagulation, among others, as well as providing a short review on future directions. PMID:25118147

  14. Risk factors associated with depressive symptoms among undergraduate students.

    PubMed

    Besharat, Mohammad Ali; Issazadegan, Ali; Etemadinia, Mahin; Golssanamlou, Safar; Abdolmanafi, Atefe

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship of several cognitive and emotional variables including perfectionism, rumination, and attachment quality with depressive symptoms in a sample of Iranian undergraduate students. Two hundred and ninety nine undergraduate students (144 males, 156 females) from Urmia University of Technology, Urmia University, and Urmia University of Medical Sciences participated in this study. Participants were asked to complete Tehran Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale (TMPS), Ruminative Responses Scale (RRS), Revised Adult Attachment Scale (RAAS), and Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). The results demonstrated that insecurity of attachment, socially prescribed perfectionism, and rumination could significantly predict the depressive symptoms in undergraduate students. Confirming predictive risk factors of depressive symptoms, results of the present study can produce an empirical basis for designing educational and health programs for people at risk. Accordingly, proper assessment of the risk factors of depressive symptoms in health care settings may provide invaluable information for prevention and management programs. PMID:25042947

  15. Differential Risk Factors for HIV Drug and Sex Risk-Taking Among Non-treatment-seeking Hospitalized Injection Drug Users

    PubMed Central

    Crooks, Denise; Tsui, Judith; Anderson, Bradley; Dossabhoy, Shernaz; Herman, Debra; Liebschutz, Jane M.; Stein, Michael D.

    2016-01-01

    Injection drug users (IDUs) are at increased risk of contracting HIV. From a clinical trial assessing an intervention to enhance the linkage of hospitalized patients to opioid treatment after discharge, we conducted multivariate analysis of baseline data from hospitalized IDUs with a history of opioid dependence (n = 104) to identify differences in factors predicting HIV drug and sex risk behaviors. Factors significantly associated with HIV drug risk were being non-Hispanic Caucasian and recent cocaine use. Being female, binge drinking, and poorer mental health were significantly associated with higher sex risk. Because factors predicting HIV sex risk behaviors differ from those predicting HIV drug risk, interventions aimed at specific HIV risks should have different behavioral and substance use targets. PMID:25063229

  16. Alternative dietary indices both strongly predict risk of chronic disease.

    PubMed

    Chiuve, Stephanie E; Fung, Teresa T; Rimm, Eric B; Hu, Frank B; McCullough, Marjorie L; Wang, Molin; Stampfer, Meir J; Willett, Walter C

    2012-06-01

    The Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005) measures adherence to the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, but the association between the HEI-2005 and risk of chronic disease is not known. The Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), which is based on foods and nutrients predictive of chronic disease risk, was associated inversely with chronic disease risk previously. We updated the AHEI, including additional dietary factors involved in the development of chronic disease, and assessed the associations between the AHEI-2010 and the HEI-2005 and risk of major chronic disease prospectively among 71,495 women from the Nurses' Health Study and 41,029 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study who were free of chronic disease at baseline. During ≥24 y of follow-up, we documented 26,759 and 15,558 incident chronic diseases (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, or nontrauma death) among women and men, respectively. The RR (95% CI) of chronic disease comparing the highest with the lowest quintile was 0.84 (0.81, 0.87) for the HEI-2005 and 0.81 (0.77, 0.85) for the AHEI-2010. The AHEI-2010 and HEI-2005 were most strongly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and diabetes, and for both outcomes the AHEI-2010 was more strongly associated with risk than the HEI-2005 (P-difference = 0.002 and <0.001, respectively). The 2 indices were similarly associated with risk of stroke and cancer. These findings suggest that closer adherence to the 2005 Dietary Guidelines may lower risk of major chronic disease. However, the AHEI-2010, which included additional dietary information, was more strongly associated with chronic disease risk, particularly CHD and diabetes. PMID:22513989

  17. Mitochondrial DNA haplotype predicts deafness risk

    SciTech Connect

    Hutchin, T.; Cortopassi, G.

    1995-12-18

    Since mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) does not recombine in humans, once deleterious variation arises within a particular mtDNA clone it remains linked to that clonal type. An A to G mutation at mtDNA position 1555 confers matrilineal deafness among Asians and others. Two major mtDNA types (I and II) have been defined in Asians by D-loop sequencing. We have determined the D-loop sequence of 8 unrelated deaf Asians bearing the 1555G mutation, and find that 7 are of type II, whereas only one is of type I. Thus the frequency of the 1555G mutation is higher in type II mtDNA than type I (P = 0.035, binomial test), and persons with type II mtDNA are more likely to become deaf. Type II mtDNAs are rare in the Caucasian population, which may explain the rarity of this form of deafness in the United States. Negative Darwinian selection is expected to rapidly eliminate mtDNAs bearing severely deleterious mutations; but mildly deleterious mutations whose phenotype is expressed after reproduction should persist on the mtDNA background in which they arose. Thus determination of mtDNA clonal type has the potential to predict human risk for diseases that are the result of mildly deleterious mtDNA mutations which confer a post-reproductive phenotype. 4 refs., 1 fig.

  18. Risk factors and burden of osteoarthritis.

    PubMed

    Palazzo, Clémence; Nguyen, Christelle; Lefevre-Colau, Marie-Martine; Rannou, François; Poiraudeau, Serge

    2016-06-01

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is one of the most common joint disorders worldwide. Its prevalence is increasing because of the growing aging of the population in developed and developing countries as well as an increase in risk factors leading to OA, particularly obesity and a sedentary lifestyle. Risk factors of OA can be divided into person-level factors (age, gender, obesity, genetics and diet) and joint-level factors (injury, malalignment and abnormal loading of the joints) that interact in a complex manner. OA is the 11th cause of disability in the world. It is responsible for activity limitations, particularly walking, and affects participation and quality of life. Patients with OA are at greater risk of all-cause mortality, particularly for cardiovascular diseases, than the general population. This excess mortality is closely associated with disability level. Consequently, strategies to reduce burden through primary and secondary prevention programs are increasingly important. PMID:26904959

  19. Cervical artery dissection: emerging risk factors.

    PubMed

    Micheli, S; Paciaroni, M; Corea, F; Agnelli, G; Zampolini, M; Caso, V

    2010-01-01

    Cervical artery dissection (CAD) represents an increasingly recognized cause of stroke and the most common cause of ischemic stroke in young adults. Many factors have been identified in association with CAD such as primary disease of arterial wall (fibrodysplasia) and other non-specific diseases related to CAD like Ehlers Danlos-syndrome IV, Marfan's syndrome, vessel tortuosity. Moreover, an underlying arteriopathy which could be in part genetically determined, has been suspected. The rule of emerging risk factors for CAD such as recent respiratory tract infection, migraine and hyperhomocysteinemia are still a matter of research. Other known risks factors for CAD are major head/neck trauma like chiropractic maneuver, coughing or hyperextension injury associated to car. We examined emerging risks factors for CAD detected in the last years, as CAD pathogenesis is still not completely understood and needs further investigations. PMID:21270941

  20. Multivariate prediction of emerging psychosis in adolescents at high risk for schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Jai; Eack, Shaun M; Montrose, Debra M; Tandon, Neeraj; Miewald, Jean M; Prasad, Konsale M; Keshavan, Matcheri S

    2012-01-01

    Background Accurate prediction of psychosis development in high-risk populations is an important but thus far elusive goal. Of the many diverse etiologic and risk factors identified thus far, few have been combined into prospective risk ascertainment models. We tested the predictive power of familial, neurobiological, socioenvironmental, cognitive and clinical risk factors through an integrative biopsychosocial model for emerging psychosis in young relatives at familial risk for schizophrenia. Methods 96 young first- and second- degree relatives of schizophrenia probands were followed for an average of 2.38 (SD = 0.98) years to examine their trajectory towards psychosis. Iterative structural equation modelling utilizing multiple etiologic and risk factors was employed to estimate their joint contribution to prediction of psychosis development. Results The rate of conversion to psychosis over the study period was 12.5%. In the final model, clinical measures of schizotypy were directly predictive of conversion, with early (familial, biological, socioenvironmental) and cognitive risk factors indirectly predictive of psychosis through increased baseline clinical symptomatology. Our model provided an excellent fit to the observed data, with sensitivity of 0.17, specificity of 0.99, positive predictive value of 0.67 and negative predictive value of 0.89. Conclusions Integrative modeling of multivariate data from familial, neurobiological, socioenvironmental, cognitive and clinical domains represents a powerful approach to prediction of psychosis development. The high specificity and low sensitivity found using a combination of such variables suggests that their utility may be in confirmatory testing among already selected high-risk individuals, rather than for initial screening. These findings also highlight the importance of data from a broad array of etiologic and risk factors, even within a familial high-risk population. With further refinement and validation, such

  1. Tuberculosis: distribution, risk factors, mortality.

    PubMed

    Kochi, A

    1994-10-01

    About a century after Koch's discovery of the TB bacilli the tuberculosis epidemic which had appeared to be under control was again recognized as a major global health threat. The decline in the epidemic in this century had been largely through the improved living standards and, eventually, the availability and use of effective antibiotics. While tuberculosis gradually disappeared from the health agenda in the western world it remained a big killer throughout the century and in 1992 an estimated 2.7 million TB deaths occurred; 30 million will die from TB during the 1990s if current trends are not reversed. The annual number of new cases will increase from 7.5 million estimated in 1990 to more than 10 million in the year 2000. The main factors for this increase are demographic forces, population movements, the HIV epidemic and increasing drug resistance. The impact of the HIV epidemic is already felt in many sub-Saharan African countries and now threatens Asia where almost two-thirds of the world's TB infected population live and where HIV is spreading. Tuberculosis has also reemerged as a major public health problem in industrialized countries due to international migration, the breakdown of health services, including TB services etc. The control of the epidemic can only be through a concerted action to reinstate TB as priority among health concerns, reflected in national and international resources. A coalition of public and private supporters must be mobilized to support the effort to fight the disease. Governments, non-governmental organizations, the business community, refugee organizations, medical institutions, and other UN agencies are invited to join with WHO in this effort. PMID:7713546

  2. Vulvovaginal candidiasis: Epidemiology, microbiology and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Gonçalves, Bruna; Ferreira, Carina; Alves, Carlos Tiago; Henriques, Mariana; Azeredo, Joana; Silva, Sónia

    2016-11-01

    Vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC) is an infection caused by Candida species that affects millions of women every year. Although Candida albicans is the main cause of VVC, the identification of non-Candida albicans Candida (NCAC) species, especially Candida glabrata, as the cause of this infection, appears to be increasing. The development of VVC is usually attributed to the disturbance of the balance between Candida vaginal colonization and host environment by physiological or nonphysiological changes. Several host-related and behavioral risk factors have been proposed as predisposing factors for VVC. Host-related factors include pregnancy, hormone replacement, uncontrolled diabetes, immunosuppression, antibiotics, glucocorticoids use and genetic predispositions. Behavioral risk factors include use of oral contraceptives, intrauterine device, spermicides and condoms and some habits of hygiene, clothing and sexual practices. Despite a growing list of recognized risk factors, much remains to be elucidated as the role of host versus microorganisms, in inducing VVC and its recurrence. Thus, this review provides information about the current state of knowledge on the risk factors that predispose to VVC, also including a revision of the epidemiology and microbiology of VVC, as well as of Candida virulence factors associated with vaginal pathogenicity. PMID:26690853

  3. Postoperative respiratory morbidity: identification and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, C; Garrahy, P; Peake, P

    1982-04-01

    Two hundred consecutive patients admitted for general surgery were studied prospectively to evaluate the contribution of risk factors to postoperative respiratory morbidity (PORM). PORM was expressed both in terms of individual clinical features present on the second postoperative day (when the incidence was greatest), and as an aggregate score incorporating many clinical features. The importance of recognised risk factors, such as previous respiratory disease, cigarette smoking, upper abdominal procedures and the duration of surgery was confirmed, in that these factors were associated with some of the individual clinical features of PORM. The relative importance and independent contribution of these risk factors were assessed by their association with the aggregate score. A naso-gastric tube (NGT) present for 24 hours postoperatively was the factor more associated with PORM. The NGT identified patients at risk more clearly than, and independently of, the next most important factor, upper abdominal surgery. The duration of surgery did not contribute to PORM after the influence of NGT and site of surgery had been considered. Previous respiratory disease predisposed to PORM, and was best identified by, in order of importance, an observed productive cough, a reduced one second forced expiratory volume, and purulent sputum. After the incidence of these factors had been considered, cigarette smoking and a history of a chronic productive cough did not contribute further to PORM. PMID:6952867

  4. Factors which predict violence victimization in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Fry, Lincoln

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Violence is a major public health issue, globally and on the African continent. This paper looks at Uganda and begins the process of identifying the factors that predict violence in that country. The purpose is to interpret the implications of the study results for violence prevention programs. Methods The study includes the responses of 2 399 Ugandans collected in 2011 by the Fifth Round of the Afrobarometer surveys. The study concentrates on 259 respondents who reported either they or someone else in their family had been the victim of violence, defined as being physically attacked, in the last year. Results Logistical regression analysis identified six factors that predict physical violence in Uganda. In order, these included being the victim of a property crime, age, gender, fear of crime in the home, poverty, and residential crowding. The surprising findings relate to what may be called target hardening, especially for those likely to be re-victimized. Respondents did tend to be re-victimized, with about 61 percent of violence victims also property crime victims. Fear of crime in home was another predictor of violence victimization, and many of these respondents had been crime victims. Conclusion These findings imply that target hardening should be the basis to begin to implement violence prevention programs in Uganda. The suggestion is crime prevention personnel/ law enforcement need to respond to reported incidents of property and/or violence victimization and attempt to prepare victims to protect both their premises and their persons in the future. PMID:25918575

  5. Industrial risk factors for colorectal cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Lashner, B.A.; Epstein, S.S. )

    1990-01-01

    Colorectal cancer is the second most common malignancy in the United States, and its incidence rates have sharply increased recently, especially in males. Industrial exposures, both occupational and environmental, are important colorectal cancer risk factors that are generally unrecognized by clinicians. Migration studies have documented that colorectal cancer is strongly associated with environmental risk factors. The causal role of occupational exposures is evidenced by a substantial literature associating specific work practices with increased colorectal cancer risks. Industrially related environmental exposures, including polluted drinking water and ionizing radiation, have also been associated with excess risks. Currently, there is a tendency to attribute colorectal cancer, largely or exclusively, to dietary and other lifestyle factors, thus neglecting these industrially related effects. Concerted efforts are needed to recognize the causal role of industrial risk factors and to encourage government and industry to reduce carcinogenic exposures. Furthermore, cost-effective screening programs for high-risk population groups are critically needed to further reduce deaths from colorectal cancer. 143 references.

  6. What Are the Risk Factors for Kidney Cancer?

    MedlinePlus

    ... kidney cancer? What are the risk factors for kidney cancer? A risk factor is anything that affects ... not cancer). Other risk factors Family history of kidney cancer People with a strong family history of ...

  7. Endocrine Risk Factors for Cognitive Impairment.

    PubMed

    Moon, Jae Hoon

    2016-06-01

    Cognitive impairment, including Alzheimer's disease and other kinds of dementia, is a major health problem in older adults worldwide. Although numerous investigators have attempted to develop effective treatment modalities or drugs, there is no reasonably efficacious strategy for preventing or recovering from cognitive impairment. Therefore, modifiable risk factors for cognitive impairment have received attention, and the growing literature of metabolic risk factors for cognitive impairment has expanded from epidemiology to molecular pathogenesis and therapeutic management. This review focuses on the epidemiological evidence for the association between cognitive impairment and several endocrine risk factors, including insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, thyroid dysfunction, vitamin D deficiency, and subclinical atherosclerosis. Researches suggesting possible mechanisms for this association are reviewed. The research investigating modifiable endocrine risk factors for cognitive impairment provides clues for understanding the pathogenesis of cognitive impairment and developing novel treatment modalities. However, so far, interventional studies investigating the beneficial effect of the "modification" of these "modifiable risk factors" on cognitive impairment have reported variable results. Therefore, well-designed, randomized prospective interventional studies are needed. PMID:27118278

  8. Risk Factors for Recurrent Lumbar Disc Herniation

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Weimin; Han, Zhiwei; Liu, Jiang; Yu, Lili; Yu, Xiuchun

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) is a common complication following primary discectomy. This systematic review aimed to investigate the current evidence on risk factors for rLDH. Cohort or case-control studies addressing risk factors for rLDH were identified by search in Pubmed (Medline), Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane library from inception to June 2015. Relevant results were pooled to give overall estimates if possible. Heterogeneity among studies was examined and publication bias was also assessed. A total of 17 studies were included in this systematic review. Risk factors that had significant relation with rLDH were smoking (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.53–2.58), disc protrusion (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.15–2.79), and diabetes (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.06–1.32). Gender, BMI, occupational work, level, and side of herniation did not correlate with rLDH significantly. Based on current evidence, smoking, disc protrusion, and diabetes were predictors for rLDH. Patients with these risk factors should be paid more attention for prevention of recurrence after primary surgery. More evidence provided by high-quality observational studies is still needed to further investigate risk factors for rLDH. PMID:26765413

  9. Endocrine Risk Factors for Cognitive Impairment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive impairment, including Alzheimer's disease and other kinds of dementia, is a major health problem in older adults worldwide. Although numerous investigators have attempted to develop effective treatment modalities or drugs, there is no reasonably efficacious strategy for preventing or recovering from cognitive impairment. Therefore, modifiable risk factors for cognitive impairment have received attention, and the growing literature of metabolic risk factors for cognitive impairment has expanded from epidemiology to molecular pathogenesis and therapeutic management. This review focuses on the epidemiological evidence for the association between cognitive impairment and several endocrine risk factors, including insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, thyroid dysfunction, vitamin D deficiency, and subclinical atherosclerosis. Researches suggesting possible mechanisms for this association are reviewed. The research investigating modifiable endocrine risk factors for cognitive impairment provides clues for understanding the pathogenesis of cognitive impairment and developing novel treatment modalities. However, so far, interventional studies investigating the beneficial effect of the "modification" of these "modifiable risk factors" on cognitive impairment have reported variable results. Therefore, well-designed, randomized prospective interventional studies are needed. PMID:27118278

  10. Predicting risk of adverse drug reactions in older adults.

    PubMed

    Lavan, Amanda Hanora; Gallagher, Paul

    2016-02-01

    Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are common in older adults, with falls, orthostatic hypotension, delirium, renal failure, gastrointestinal and intracranial bleeding being amongst the most common clinical manifestations. ADR risk increases with age-related changes in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, increasing burden of comorbidity, polypharmacy, inappropriate prescribing and suboptimal monitoring of drugs. ADRs are a preventable cause of harm to patients and an unnecessary waste of healthcare resources. Several ADR risk tools exist but none has sufficient predictive value for clinical practice. Good clinical practice for detecting and predicting ADRs in vulnerable patients includes detailed documentation and regular review of prescribed and over-the-counter medications through standardized medication reconciliation. New medications should be prescribed cautiously with clear therapeutic goals and recognition of the impact a drug can have on multiple organ systems. Prescribers should regularly review medication efficacy and be vigilant for ADRs and their contributory risk factors. Deprescribing should occur at an individual level when drugs are no longer efficacious or beneficial or when safer alternatives exist. Inappropriate prescribing and unnecessary polypharmacy should be minimized. Comprehensive geriatric assessment and the use of explicit prescribing criteria can be useful in this regard. PMID:26834959

  11. Predicting risk of adverse drug reactions in older adults

    PubMed Central

    Lavan, Amanda Hanora; Gallagher, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are common in older adults, with falls, orthostatic hypotension, delirium, renal failure, gastrointestinal and intracranial bleeding being amongst the most common clinical manifestations. ADR risk increases with age-related changes in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, increasing burden of comorbidity, polypharmacy, inappropriate prescribing and suboptimal monitoring of drugs. ADRs are a preventable cause of harm to patients and an unnecessary waste of healthcare resources. Several ADR risk tools exist but none has sufficient predictive value for clinical practice. Good clinical practice for detecting and predicting ADRs in vulnerable patients includes detailed documentation and regular review of prescribed and over-the-counter medications through standardized medication reconciliation. New medications should be prescribed cautiously with clear therapeutic goals and recognition of the impact a drug can have on multiple organ systems. Prescribers should regularly review medication efficacy and be vigilant for ADRs and their contributory risk factors. Deprescribing should occur at an individual level when drugs are no longer efficacious or beneficial or when safer alternatives exist. Inappropriate prescribing and unnecessary polypharmacy should be minimized. Comprehensive geriatric assessment and the use of explicit prescribing criteria can be useful in this regard. PMID:26834959

  12. Environmental risk factors for inflammatory bowel disease.

    PubMed

    Molodecky, Natalie A; Kaplan, Gilaad G

    2010-05-01

    Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is characterized by chronic inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract and is associated with significant morbidity. The etiology of IBD has been extensively studied during the last several decades; however, causative factors in disease pathology are not yet fully understood. IBD is thought to result from the interaction between genetic and environmental factors that influence the normal intestinal commensal flora to trigger an inappropriate mucosal immune response. Although many IBD susceptibility genes have been discovered, similar advances in defining environmental risk factors have lagged. A number of environmental risk factors have been explored, including smoking, appendectomy, oral contraceptives, diet, breastfeeding, infections/ vaccinations, antibiotics, and childhood hygiene. However, most of these factors have demonstrated inconsistent findings, thus making additional studies necessary to better understand the etiology of IBD. PMID:20567592

  13. Risk factors of cardiac allograft vasculopathy

    PubMed Central

    Szczurek, Wioletta; Gąsior, Mariusz; Zembala, Marian

    2015-01-01

    Despite advances in prevention and treatment of heart transplant rejection, development of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) remains the leading factor limiting long-term survival of the graft. Cardiac allograft vasculopathy etiopathogenesis is not fully understood, but a significant role is attributed to endothelial cell damage, caused by immunological and non-immunological mechanisms. Immunological factors include the differences between the recipient's and the donor's HLA systems, the presence of alloreactive antibodies and episodes of acute rejection. Among the non-immunological factors the most important are the age of the donor, ischemia-reperfusion injury and cytomegalovirus infection. The classical cardiovascular risk factors (diabetes, hypertension, obesity and hyperlipidemia) are also important. This study presents an up-to-date overview of current knowledge on the vasculopathy etiopathogenesis and the role played by endothelium and inflammatory processes in CAV, and it also investigates the factors which may serve as risk markers of cardiac allograft vasculopathy. PMID:26855649

  14. High risk factors of pancreatic carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Camara, Soriba Naby; Yin, Tao; Yang, Ming; Li, Xiang; Gong, Qiong; Zhou, Jing; Zhao, Gang; Yang, Zhi-Yong; Aroun, Tajoo; Kuete, Martin; Ramdany, Sonam; Camara, Alpha Kabinet; Diallo, Aissatou Taran; Feng, Zhen; Ning, Xin; Xiong, Jiong-Xin; Tao, Jing; Qin, Qi; Zhou, Wei; Cui, Jing; Huang, Min; Guo, Yao; Gou, Shan-Miao; Wang, Bo; Liu, Tao; Olivier, Ohoya Etsaka Terence; Conde, Tenin; Cisse, Mohamed; Magassouba, Aboubacar Sidiki; Ballah, Sneha; Keita, Naby Laye Moussa; Souare, Ibrahima Sory; Toure, Aboubacar; Traore, Sadamoudou; Balde, Abdoulaye Korse; Keita, Namory; Camara, Naby Daouda; Emmanuel, Dusabe; Wu, He-Shui; Wang, Chun-You

    2016-06-01

    Over the past decades, cancer has become one of the toughest challenges for health professionals. The epidemiologists are increasingly directing their research efforts on various malignant tumor worldwide. Of note, incidence of cancers is on the rise more quickly in developed countries. Indeed, great endeavors have to be made in the control of the life-threatening disease. As we know it, pancreatic cancer (PC) is a malignant disease with the worst prognosis. While little is known about the etiology of the PC and measures to prevent the condition, so far, a number of risk factors have been identified. Genetic factors, pre-malignant lesions, predisposing diseases and exogenous factors have been found to be linked to PC. Genetic susceptibility was observed in 10% of PC cases, including inherited PC syndromes and familial PC. However, in the remaining 90%, their PC might be caused by genetic factors in combination with environmental factors. Nonetheless, the exact mechanism of the two kinds of factors, endogenous and exogenous, working together to cause PC remains poorly understood. The fact that most pancreatic neoplasms are diagnosed at an incurable stage of the disease highlights the need to identify risk factors and to understand their contribution to carcinogenesis. This article reviews the high risk factors contributing to the development of PC, to provide information for clinicians and epidemiologists. PMID:27376795

  15. Environmental risk factors for mycosis fungoides.

    PubMed

    Wohl, Yonit; Tur, Ethel

    2007-01-01

    The rising incidence rates of mycosis fungoides (MF) call for an explanation. Thus, environmental and lifestyle factors were speculated to play a role in the development of lymphoproliferative diseases. It is thought that continuous activation of skin T helper lymphocytes leads to malignant transformation of a specific clone. Possible risk factors that have been implicated are occupational chemical exposure, radiation, drugs and infections. The carcinogenic process is probably multifactorial and multistep, combining the genetic predisposition of the individual and his immune status with various exogenous factors. Using advanced and accurate exposure assessment tools, recent epidemiological data indicate that occupational exposure to chemicals, primarily to aromatic halogenated hydrocarbons, is a major risk factor to develop MF in men (odds ratio 4.6), while exposure to pesticides, a subgroup of the aromatic halogenated hydrocarbons, is a risk factor in both genders (odds ratio 6.8 for men and 2.4 for women). Apparently, concomitant infection with Staphylococcus aureus or with Borrelia species and chronic exposure to UVR are minor risk factors for the development of MF. Further assessment of occupational and environmental exposures is essential for the evaluation of their contribution to the etiology of MF. This will allow the application of preventive and surveillance measures along with adjustment of existing health policies. PMID:17641490

  16. Risk Factors for Smoking in Rural Women

    PubMed Central

    Salsberry, Pamela J.; Ferketich, Amy K.; Ahijevych, Karen L.; Hood, Nancy E.; Paskett, Electra D.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background This study examined the association between social, demographic, and psychologic factors and smoking status among Appalachian Ohio women. A secondary aim examined whether specific factors could be identified and segmented for future tailored treatment of tobacco dependence. Methods A cross-sectional survey (n=570) obtained information about social, demographic, and psychologic factors and smoking. Logistic regression described associations between these characteristics and smoking status. Chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) analyses identified subgroups at risk for smoking. Results Fifty-two percent never smoked, with 20.5% and 27.5% categorized as former and current smokers, respectively. Women with low adult socioeconomic position (SEP) were more likely to smoke (odds ratio [OR] 3.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.74-5.34) compared to high SEP women. Other factors associated with current smoking included age 31–50 (OR 2.30, 95% CI 1.22-4.33), age 18–30 (OR 3.29, 95% CI 1.72-5.34), Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (CES-D) score≥16 (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.31-3.05), and first pregnancy at age<20 (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.14-2.66). The prevalence of smoking was 50% among those with four or more risk factors compared to 10% for those reporting no risk factors. CHAID analyses identified low adult SEP and depressive symptoms as the combination of risk factors most strongly associated with smoking; 49.3% of women in this subgroup currently smoked. Conclusions Low SEP in adulthood, maternal circumstances, and depressive symptoms are associated with current smoking. Tailored cessation interventions that address these risk factors should be developed and further evaluated in an attempt to reduce disparities in smoking prevalence among this vulnerable group of women. PMID:22360694

  17. Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients

    PubMed Central

    Coid, Jeremy W.; Kallis, Constantinos; Doyle, Mike; Shaw, Jenny; Ullrich, Simone

    2015-01-01

    Background Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments. Methods We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Historical, Clinical and Risk-20 items version 3 (HCR-20v3) and Structural Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF). Information on violence was obtained via the McArthur community violence instrument and the Police National Computer. Results In a lagged model, HCR-20v3 and SAPROF items were poor predictors of violence. Eight items of the HCR-20v3 and 4 SAPROF items did not predict violent behaviour better than chance. In re-analyses considering temporal proximity of risk/ protective factors (exposure) on violence (outcome), risk was elevated due to violent ideation (OR 6.98, 95% CI 13.85–12.65, P<0.001), instability (OR 5.41, 95% CI 3.44–8.50, P<0.001), and poor coping/ stress (OR 8.35, 95% CI 4.21–16.57, P<0.001). All 3 risk factors were explanatory variables which drove the association with violent outcome. Self-control (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08–0.24, P<0.001) conveyed protective effects and explained the association of other protective factors with violence. Conclusions Using two standardised SPJ instruments, predictive (lagged) methods could not identify risk and protective factors which must be targeted in interventions for discharged patients with severe mental illness. Predictive methods should be abandoned if the aim is to progress from risk assessment to effective risk management and replaced by methods which identify factors

  18. Seasonal Risk Factors for Asthma Exacerbations among Inner City Children

    PubMed Central

    Teach, Stephen J.; Gergen, Peter J.; Szefler, Stanley J.; Mitchell, Herman E.; Calatroni, Agustin; Wildfire, Jeremy; Bloomberg, Gordon; Kercsmar, Carolyn; Liu, Andrew H.; Makhija, Melanie; Matsui, Elizabeth; Morgan, Wayne; O'Connor, George; Busse, William W.

    2015-01-01

    Background Exacerbations of asthma remain common even in children and adolescents despite optimal medical management. Identification of host risk factors for exacerbations is incomplete, particularly for seasonal episodes. Objective Define host risk factors for asthma exacerbations unique to their season of occurrence. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of patients aged 6-20 years who comprised the control groups of the Asthma Control Evaluation trial and the Inner City Anti-IgE Therapy for Asthma trial. Univariate and multivariate models were constructed to determine if patient demographic and historical factors, allergic sensitization, fractional exhaled nitric oxide, spirometric measurements, asthma control, and treatment requirements were associated with seasonal exacerbations. Results The analysis included 400 patients (54.5% male; 59.0% African American; median age 13 years). Exacerbations occurred in 37.5% of participants over the periods of observation and were most common in the fall (28.8% of participants). In univariate analysis, impaired pulmonary function was significantly associated with greater odds of exacerbations for all seasons, as was an exacerbation in the previous season for all seasons except spring. In multivariate analysis, exacerbation in the previous season was the strongest predictor in fall and winter while a higher requirement for inhaled corticosteroids was the strongest predictor in spring and summer. The multivariate models had the best predictive power for fall exacerbations (30.5% variance attributed). Conclusions Among a large cohort of inner city children with asthma, patient risk factors for exacerbations vary by season. Thus, individual patient information may be beneficial in strategies to prevent these seasonal events. Clinical Implications Inner city children remain at risk for asthma exacerbations despite appropriate therapy. Because their risk factors vary by season, strategies to prevent them may need to differ as

  19. Spinal meningiomas: clinicoradiological factors predicting recurrence and functional outcome.

    PubMed

    Maiti, Tanmoy K; Bir, Shyamal C; Patra, Devi Prasad; Kalakoti, Piyush; Guthikonda, Bharat; Nanda, Anil

    2016-08-01

    OBJECTIVE Spinal meningiomas are benign tumors with a wide spectrum of clinical and radiological features at presentation. The authors analyzed multiple clinicoradiological factors to predict recurrence and functional outcome in a cohort with a mean follow-up of more than 4 years. The authors also discuss the results of clinical studies regarding spinal meningiomas in the last 15 years. METHODS The authors retrospectively reviewed the clinical and radiological details of patients who underwent surgery for spinal tumors between 2001 and 2015 that were histopathologically confirmed as meningiomas. Demographic parameters, such as age, sex, race, and association with neurofibromatosis Type 2, were considered. Radiological parameters, such as tumor size, signal changes of spinal cord, spinal level, number of levels, location of tumor attachment, shape of tumor, and presence of dural tail/calcification, were noted. These factors were analyzed to predict recurrence and functional outcome. Furthermore, a pooled analysis was performed from 13 reports of spinal meningiomas in the last 15 years. RESULTS A total of 38 patients were included in this study. Male sex and tumors with radiological evidence of a dural tail were associated with an increased risk of recurrence at a mean follow-up of 51.2 months. Ventral or ventrolateral location, large tumors, T2 cord signal changes, and poor preoperative functional status were associated with poor functional outcome at 1-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Spine surgeons must be aware of the natural history and risk factors of spinal meningiomas to establish a prognosis for their patients. PMID:27476848

  20. Risk factors for developing atopic dermatitis.

    PubMed

    Carson, Charlotte Giwercman

    2013-07-01

    The aim of this thesis was to investigate possible risk factors affecting the development of AD. AD is a frequent disease among children and has a substantial impact on the lives of both the child and its family. A better understanding of the disease would enable better treatment, prevention and information to the families involved. Previous risk factor studies have been hampered by an unsuitable study design and/or difficulties in standardization when diagnosing AD, which limit their conclusions. In paper I, we conducted a traditional cross-sectional analysis testing 40 possible risk factors for developing AD at 3 years of age. Our data suggested a strong heredity of AD and confirmed the risk associated with the non-functional FLG allele mutations after adjustments for confounders. Besides this mother's dermatitis and father's allergic rhinitis were found to increase the risk of AD. Perinatal exposure to dog was the only environmental exposure that significantly reduced the disease manifestation, suggesting other, yet unknown environmental factors affecting the increasing prevalence of AD in children. Length at birth was shown to be inversely associated with the risk of later developing AD. This traditional risk factor analysis led to two borderline significant results: duration of exclusive breastfeeding and mother's alcohol intake during the 3rd trimester. Since these possible two risk factors could neither be rejected nor accepted, we decided to do two in-depth studies, further investigating these, using longitudinal data information and data analysis instead of the traditional cross-sectional approach (paper II & III). In paper II, we investigated the risk of developing AD and wheezy symptoms until age 2 years depending on duration of breastfeeding. We found an increased risk of AD, but a protective effect on wheezy disorders in infancy from exclusive breastfeeding. The effect of exclusive breastfeeding on the risk of development of AD was significant after

  1. Risk Factors for Glaucoma Needing More Attention

    PubMed Central

    Coleman, Anne L; Kodjebacheva, Gergana

    2009-01-01

    Glaucoma is defined as a chronic progressive optic neuropathy, for which elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) is the only modifiable risk factor. Emerging research indicates that modifiable factors besides IOP may be associated with the presence of glaucoma. In this review, we discuss the role of modifiable determinants, specifically socioeconomic status, nutritional intake, body mass index and obesity, exercise, smoking, and sleep apnea, in the presence of glaucoma. Preliminary studies suggest that associations may exist between these non-inherent factors and glaucoma although research had significant limitations. The mechanisms of influence are unknown or understudied. Research needs to incorporate the broader behavioral and social factors that may affect glaucoma status. PMID:19816585

  2. Surgical site infection risk factors and risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Florschutz, Anthony V; Fagan, Ryan P; Matar, Wadih Y; Sawyer, Robert G; Berrios-Torres, Sandra I

    2015-04-01

    Preoperative identification of the risk factors for surgical site infection and patient risk stratification are essential for deciding whether surgery is appropriate, educating patients on their individual risk of complications, and managing postoperative expectations. Early identification of these factors is also necessary to help guide both patient medical optimization and perioperative care planning. Several resources are currently available to track and analyze healthcare-associated infections, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Healthcare Safety Network. In addition, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons are exploring collaborative opportunities for the codevelopment of a hip and/or knee arthroplasty national quality measure for periprosthetic joint infection. PMID:25808971

  3. Chronic kidney disease - pediatric risk factors.

    PubMed

    Tasic, Velibor; Janchevska, Aleksandra; Emini, Nora; Sahpazova, Emilija; Gucev, Zoran; Polenakovic, Momir

    2016-01-01

    The knowledge about the progression of chronic kidney disease is an important issue for every pediatric nephrologist and pediatrician in order to implement appropriate measures to prevent wasting of renal function and the final consequence - end stage renal disease with the need for the dialysis and transplantation. Therefore it is important to know, treat or ameliorate the standard risk factors such as hypertension, proteinuria, anemia, hyperparathyroidism etc. In this review devoted to the World Kidney Day 2016 we will pay attention to the low birth parameters, obesity, hyperuricemia and smoking which emerged as particularly important risk factors for children and adolescent with chronic kidney disease. PMID:27442412

  4. Occupational Asthma: Etiologies and Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to critically review the available evidence pertaining to occupational, environmental, and individual factors that can affect the development of occupational asthma (OA). Increasing evidence suggests that exploration of the intrinsic characteristics of OA-causing agents and associated structure-activity relationships offers promising avenues for quantifying the sensitizing potential of agents that are introduced in the workplace. The intensity of exposure to sensitizing agents has been identified as the most important environmental risk factor for OA and should remain the cornerstone for primary prevention strategies. The role of other environmental co-factors (e.g., non-respiratory routes of exposure and concomitant exposure to cigarette smoke and other pollutants) remains to be further delineated. There is convincing evidence that atopy is an important individual risk factor for OA induced by high-molecular-weight agents. There is some evidence that genetic factors, such as leukocyte antigen class II alleles, are associated with an increased risk of OA; however, the role of genetic susceptibility factors is likely to be obscured by complex gene-environment interactions. OA, as well as asthma in general, is a complex disease that results from multiple interactions between environmental factors and host susceptibilities. Determining these interactions is a crucial step towards implementing optimal prevention policies. PMID:21738881

  5. CSF 5-HIAA Predicts Suicide Risk after Attempted Suicide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nordstrom, Peter; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Studied suicide risk after attempted suicide, as predicted by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) monoamine metabolite concentrations, in 92 psychiatric mood disorder inpatients admitted shortly after attempting suicide. Results revealed that low CSF 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA) predicted short-range suicide risk after attempted suicide in mood…

  6. Risk and Protective Factors Influencing Life Skills among Youths in Long-Term Foster Care.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nollan, K. A.; Pecora, P. J.; Nurius, P. N.; Whittaker, J. K.

    2002-01-01

    Examined through mail surveys of youth, parents, and social workers the predictive value of selected risk and protective factors in explaining self-sufficiency skills of 219 ethnically diverse 12- to 15-year-olds in foster care. Found that protective factors related to greater self-sufficiency skills, and risk factors were negatively associated.…

  7. Teachers' Knowledge of Children's Exposure to Family Risk Factors: Accuracy and Usefulness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dwyer, Sarah B.; Nicholson, Jan M.; Battistutta, Diana; Oldenburg, Brian

    2005-01-01

    Teachers' knowledge of children's exposure to family risk factors was examined using the Family Risk Factor Checklist-Teacher. Data collected for 756 children indicated that teachers had accurate knowledge of children's exposure to factors such as adverse life events and family socioeconomic status, which predicted children's mental health…

  8. Examination of Substance Use, Risk Factors, and Protective Factors on Student Academic Test Score Performance

    PubMed Central

    Arthur, Michael W.; Brown, Eric C.; Briney, John S.; Hawkins, J. David; Abbott, Robert D.; Catalano, Richard F.; Becker, Linda; Langer, Michael; Mueller, Martin T.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND School administrators and teachers face difficult decisions about how best to use school resources in order to meet academic achievement goals. Many are hesitant to adopt prevention curricula that are not focused directly on academic achievement. Yet, some have hypothesized that prevention curricula can remove barriers to learning and, thus, promote achievement. This study examined relationships between school levels of student substance use and risk and protective factors that predict adolescent problem behaviors and achievement test performance in Washington State. METHODS Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models were used to examine predictive associations between school-averaged levels of substance use and risk and protective factors and Washington State students’ likelihood of meeting achievement test standards on the Washington Assessment of Student Learning, statistically controlling for demographic and economic factors known to be associated with achievement. RESULTS Results indicate that levels of substance use and risk/protective factors predicted the academic test score performance of students. Many of these effects remained significant even after controlling for model covariates. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that implementing prevention programs that target empirically identified risk and protective factors have the potential to positively affect students’ academic achievement. PMID:26149305

  9. Cardiovascular risk factors following renal transplant

    PubMed Central

    Neale, Jill; Smith, Alice C

    2015-01-01

    Kidney transplantation is the gold-standard treatment for many patients with end-stage renal disease. Renal transplant recipients (RTRs) remain at an increased risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular (CV) events compared to the general population, although rates are lower than those patients on maintenance haemodialysis. Death with a functioning graft is most commonly due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and therefore this remains an important therapeutic target to prevent graft failure. Conventional CV risk factors such as diabetes, hypertension and renal dysfunction remain a major influence on CVD in RTRs. However it is now recognised that the morbidity and mortality from CVD are not entirely accounted for by these traditional risk-factors. Immunosuppression medications exert a deleterious effect on many of these well-recognised contributors to CVD and are known to exacerbate the probability of developing diabetes, graft dysfunction and hypertension which can all lead on to CVD. Non-traditional CV risk factors such as inflammation and anaemia have been strongly linked to increased CV events in RTRs and should be considered alongside those which are classified as conventional. This review summarises what is known about risk-factors for CVD in RTRs and how, through identification of those which are modifiable, outcomes can be improved. The overall CV risk in RTRs is likely to be multifactorial and a complex interaction between the multiple traditional and non-traditional factors; further studies are required to determine how these may be modified to enhance survival and quality of life in this unique population. PMID:26722646

  10. Novel risk factors for cardiovascular disease in rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Amaya-Amaya, Jenny; Sarmiento-Monroy, Juan Camilo; Mantilla, Ruben-Dario; Pineda-Tamayo, Ricardo; Rojas-Villarraga, Adriana; Anaya, Juan-Manuel

    2013-07-01

    Since cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of mortality in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), we aimed to determine factors associated with such a complication in a large series of Colombian patients. This was a cross-sectional analytical study in which 800 consecutive Colombian patients with RA were assessed for variables associated with CVD. Furthermore, a systematic literature review was performed to address the state of the art about non-traditional risk factors for CVD in RA. The preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guidelines were followed in data extraction, analysis, and reporting of articles selected. Hypercholesterolemia, type 2 diabetes mellitus, abnormal body mass index, abdominal obesity, and current smoking were all traditional risk factors significantly associated with CVD in Colombians. As non-traditional risk factors, familial autoimmunity, more than 10 years of duration of the disease, patients working on household duties, use of systemic steroids, and low education level were associated with CVD in the studied population. Out of a total of 9,812 articles identified in PubMed and Scopus databases, 140 fulfilled the eligibility criteria and were included. Through this systematic review, several factors and outcomes related to CVD were confirmed and identified. These were categorized into genetics, RA-related, and others. Traditional risk factors do not completely explain the high rates of CVD in patients with RA; thus, novel risk factors related to autoimmunity are now recognized predicting the presence of CVD as strong as traditional risk factors. Our results may assist health professionals and policymakers in making decisions about CVD in patients with RA. PMID:23584985

  11. Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Severely Obese Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Michalsky, Marc P.; Inge, Thomas H.; Simmons, Mark; Jenkins, Todd M.; Buncher, Ralph; Helmrath, Michael; Brandt, Mary L.; Harmon, Carroll M.; Courcoulas, Anita; Chen, Michael; Horlick, Mary; Daniels, Stephen R.; Urbina, Elaine M.

    2015-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Severe obesity is increasingly common in the adolescent population but, as of yet, very little information exists regarding cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks in this group. OBJECTIVE To assess the baseline prevalence and predictors of CVD risks among severely obese adolescents undergoing weight-loss surgery. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A prospective cohort study was conducted from February 28, 2007, to December 30, 2011, at the following 5 adolescent weight-loss surgery centers in the United States: Nationwide Children’s Hospital in Columbus, Ohio; Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center in Cincinnati, Ohio; Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston; University of Pittsburgh Medical Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Children’s Hospital of Alabama in Birmingham. Consecutive patients aged 19 years or younger were offered enrollment in a long-term outcome study; the final analysis cohort consisted of 242 participants. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES This report examined the preoperative prevalence of CVD risk factors (ie, fasting hyperinsulinemia, elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels, impaired fasting glucose levels, dyslipidemia, elevated blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus) and associations between risk factors and body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Preoperative data were collected within 30 days preceding bariatric surgery. RESULTS The mean (SD) age was 17 (1.6) years and median body mass index was 50.5. Cardiovascular disease risk factor prevalence was fasting hyperinsulinemia (74%), elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels (75%), dyslipidemia (50%), elevated blood pressure (49%), impaired fasting glucose levels (26%), and diabetes mellitus (14%). The risk of impaired fasting glucose levels, elevated blood pressure, and elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels increased by 15%, 10%, and 6%, respectively, per 5-unit

  12. Blood alcohol concentrations: factors affecting predictions.

    PubMed

    Winek, C L; Esposito, F M

    1985-01-01

    As a result of extensive alcohol research conducted on both humans and animals, it is possible to predict a BAC, given pertinent data. In addition, it is possible to estimate from a given BAC the quantity of alcohol consumed. Caution must be used in these predictions, for certain factors will affect the final estimation. Absorption of alcohol is influenced by gastrointestinal contents and motility, and also the composition and quantity of the alcoholic beverage. The vascularity of tissues influences the distribution of alcohol, and their water content will determine the amount of alcohol present after equilibrium. Elimination of alcohol begins immediately after absorption. The elimination rate varies for individuals but falls between .015 percent to .020 percent per hour, with an average of .018 percent per hour. In addition to these factors, a BAC will depend on the subject's weight, percentage of alcohol in the beverage, and the rate of drinking. The principal effect of alcohol in the body is on the central nervous system. Its depressant effect consists of impairment to sensory, motor and learned functions. When combined with some other drugs, a more intoxicated state occurs. Although tolerance to alcohol at low blood concentrations is possible, the tolerance most noted is a learned tolerance among chronic drinkers. contamination of antemortem blood samples collected for alcohol analysis is minimal when swabbing with an ethanolic antiseptic is performed with routine clinical technique; sloppy swabbing has been shown to increase the BAC determination significantly. The alcoholic content of blood used for transfusion does not contribute significantly to the BAC of the recipient, since extensive dilution occurs; nor does the alcohol present in injectable medication contribute significantly. Although many factors may alter the concentration of alcohol present in autopsy specimens, postmortem synthesis of alcohol receives the most attention. The microorganisms that

  13. Which psychosocial factors best predict cognitive performance in older adults?

    PubMed

    Zahodne, Laura B; Nowinski, Cindy J; Gershon, Richard C; Manly, Jennifer J

    2014-05-01

    Negative affect (e.g., depression) is associated with accelerated age-related cognitive decline and heightened dementia risk. Fewer studies examine positive psychosocial factors (e.g., emotional support, self-efficacy) in cognitive aging. Preliminary reports suggest that these variables predict slower cognitive decline independent of negative affect. No reports have examined these factors in a single model to determine which best relate to cognition. Data from 482 individuals 55 and older came from the normative sample for the NIH Toolbox for the Assessment of Neurological and Behavioral Function. Negative and positive psychosocial factors, executive functioning, working memory, processing speed, and episodic memory were measured with the NIH Toolbox Emotion and Cognition modules. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling characterized independent relations between psychosocial factors and cognition. Psychosocial variables loaded onto negative and positive factors. Independent of education, negative affect and health status, greater emotional support was associated with better task-switching and processing speed. Greater self-efficacy was associated with better working memory. Negative affect was not independently associated with any cognitive variables. Findings support the conceptual distinctness of negative and positive psychosocial factors in older adults. Emotional support and self-efficacy may be more closely tied to cognition than other psychosocial variables. PMID:24685143

  14. Breastfeeding at 6 weeks and predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Chye, J K; Zain, Z; Lim, W L; Lim, C T

    1997-10-01

    Despite the numerous changes made in accordance with the Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative at the University Hospital, Kuala Lumpur, the low rates of breastfeeding have persisted. This study aims to examine the current trend in infant feeding, and the influences of some perinatal and sociodemographic factors on breastfeeding. Five-hundred mothers with singleton pregnancies and healthy infants were interviewed at 6 weeks post-partum. Only 124 (25 per cent) mothers were practising exclusive breastfeeding (EBF), and 132 (26 per cent) mothers were using exclusive infant formula feeding (EIF). On logistic regression analyses, mothers who followed EBF were more likely to have had antenatal plans to breastfeed (Odds ratio 2.44, 95 per cent confidence interval 1.75-3.45), not in paid employment post-natally (OR 1.76, 95 per cent CI 1.31-2.36), of older age group (> 27 years) (OR 1.48, 95 per cent CI 1.13-1.93), had female infants (OR 1.38, 95 per cent CI 1.05-1.80) and of Indian ethnicity (compared to Chinese) (OR 3.87, 95 per cent CI 2.16-6.89). Breastfeeding difficulties were associated with decreased odds of EBF (OR 0.21, 95 per cent CI 0.13-0.34). Parental education, fathers' ages and incomes, primigravida status, Caesarean section, present of episiotomy, late first breastfeed, phototherapy, and length of hospital stay were not significant predictors of failure of EBF. In comparison, predictive factors for increased use of EIF were mothers who have had breastfeeding difficulties, < or = 9 years of schooling, and of Chinese descent. In conclusions, the overall rate of EBF by 6 weeks of age in infants born in this urban hospital had remained poor. The adverse factors for EBF identified in this study warrant further in-depth studies to determine effective ways of improving EBF rates. PMID:9364127

  15. [Psychosocial risk factors at work as predictors of mobbing].

    PubMed

    Meseguer de Pedro, Mariano; Soler Sánchez, María I; García-Izquierdo, Mariano; Sáez Navarro, M C; Sánchez Meca, Julio

    2007-05-01

    This work analyses the way in which various psychosocial risk indicators may predict mobbing. A sample of 638 workers, 168 men and 470 women, from the fruit-and-vegetable sector was evaluated. An anonymous questionnaire was administered to all employees who were present on the evaluation days in the companies comprising the study. After analysing the data obtained with the mobbing questionnaire NAQ-RE (Sáez, García-Izquierdo, and Llor, 2003) and with the psychosocial risk factors evaluation method of the INSHT (Martín and Pérez, 1997), using canonical regression, we found that several psychosocial factors such as role definition, mental workload, interest in the workers, and supervision / participation predict two types of mobbing: personal mobbing and work-performance-related mobbing. PMID:17425890

  16. Risk Factors for Rural Residential Fires

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen; Zwerling, Craig

    2007-01-01

    Context and Purpose: Rural households report high fire-related mortality and injury rates, but few studies have examined the risk factors for fires. This study aims to identify occupant and household characteristics that are associated with residential fires in a rural cohort. Methods: Of 1,005 households contacted in a single rural county, 691…

  17. Risk Factors for Depression in Early Adolescence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacPhee, Angela R.; Andrews, Jac J. W.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify salient risk factors for depression in early adolescence from a group of common predictors. The following nine predictors were examined: (1) perceived quality of peer relationships, (2) perceived parental nurturance, (3) perceived parental rejection, (4) self-esteem, (5) body image, (6) pubertal status,…

  18. Adolescent Suicide Risk: Four Psychosocial Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutter, Philip A.; Behrendt, Andrew E.

    2004-01-01

    Suicide is a leading cause of death among adolescents. This study examined the suicidal ideation, behavior, and attempt history of 100 adolescents ages seventeen to nineteen. Four psychosocial factors were found to be important for overall suicide risk: hopelessness, hostility, negative self-concept, and isolation. It is suggested that focusing on…

  19. Risk Factors for Paternal Physical Child Abuse

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Shawna J.; Guterman, Neil B.; Lee, Yookyong

    2008-01-01

    Objective: This study uses the developmental-ecological framework to examine a comprehensive set of paternal factors hypothesized to be linked to risk for paternal child abuse (PCA) among a diverse sample of fathers. Attention was given to fathers' marital status and their race/ethnicity (White, African American, and Hispanic). Methods: Interviews…

  20. Risk Factors for Domestic Violence in Curacao

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Wijk, N. Ph. L.; de Bruijn, J. G. M.

    2012-01-01

    One out of three people (25% of men, 38% of women) in Curacao have experienced some form of domestic violence at some point in their adult lives. The most significant risk factors for domestic violence in Curacao are the female gender, a young age, low education, and experiencing domestic violence victimization in childhood. Divorce, single…

  1. Risk Factors and Prodromal Eating Pathology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stice, Eric; Ng, Janet; Shaw, Heather

    2010-01-01

    Prospective studies have identified factors that increase risk for eating pathology onset, including perceived pressure for thinness, thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, dietary restraint, and negative affect. Research also suggests that body dissatisfaction and dietary restraint may constitute prodromal stages of the development of…

  2. Environmental Risk Factors in Hospital Suicide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lieberman, Daniel Z.; Resnik, Harvey L.P.; Holder-Perkins, Vicenzio

    2004-01-01

    Suicide of hospitalized patients is the most common sentinel event reviewed by The Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations. Shorter lengths of stay, sicker patients, and higher patient to staff ratios challenge the ability of the hospital to maintain safety. Risk factors associated with the physical environment of the…

  3. Infants at Risk: Perinatal and Neonatal Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lipsitt, Lewis P.

    1979-01-01

    Reviews studies of infant behavior and development. Delineates a behavioral hypothesis relating prenatal and neonatal risk factors in infancy to crib death. The mutual dependence of experience and neurostructural development suggests that infancy is a period of critical learning experiences. (Author/RH)

  4. Risk Factors for Smoking Behaviors among Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chung, Sung Suk; Joung, Kyoung Hwa

    2014-01-01

    Many students in Korea begin to use tobacco and develop a regular smoking habit before they reach adulthood. Yet, little is known about various signs contributing to the transition of the student smoking behaviors. This study used a national sample to explore and compare risk factors for smoking behaviors. Three types of smoking behaviors were…

  5. [Sexual risk factors among European young people].

    PubMed

    Calatrava, María; López-Del Burgo, Cristina; de Irala, Jokin

    2012-05-01

    The sexual transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) in Europe are still rising. In order to prioritize STI prevention strategies in Europe, it is important to describe the prevalence of different sexual risk factors for STIs among European young people. We carried out a systematic review of published articles and studies performed by European institutions. A total of 21 articles and 10 studies were identified. The data shows an increase in early sexual initiation and the number of sexual partners. Young people who use condoms inconsistently ranged from 15 to 20%. The observed risk factors are: unawareness about other STIs different from HIV, being in favour of casual sex, wrongly believing that some measures are effective in avoiding HIV, not being aware of the risks from having multiple sexual partners and unawareness about the sexual transmission of HIV. The data suggests the need to improve the information addressed to youth. PMID:22015005

  6. Cardiovascular Risk Factors of Taxi Drivers.

    PubMed

    Elshatarat, Rami Azmi; Burgel, Barbara J

    2016-06-01

    In the United States (U.S.), cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major leading cause of death. Despite the high mortality rate related to CVD, little is known about CVD risk factors among urban taxi drivers in the U.S. A cross-sectional design was used to identify the predictors of high cardiovascular risk factors among taxi drivers. Convenience sampling method was used to recruit 130 taxi drivers. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain the data. The sample was male (94 %), age mean (45 ± 10.75) years, married (54 %), born outside of the USA (55 %), had some college or below (61.5 %), night drivers (50.8 %), and driving on average 9.7 years and 41 h/week. About 79 % of them were eligible for CVD prevention, and 35.4 % had high CVD risk factors (4-9 risk factors). A CVD high-risk profile had a significant relationship with the subjects who were ≥55 years old; had hypertension, diabetes, or hyperlipidemia; were drinking alcohol ≥2 times/week; and had insufficient physical activity. Subjects who worked as a taxi driver for more than 10 years (OR 4.37; 95 % CI 1.82, 10.50) and had mental exertion from cab driving >5 out of 10 (OR 2.63; 95 % CI 1.05, 6.57) were more likely to have a CVD high-risk profile. As a conclusion, system-level or worksite interventions include offering healthy food at taxi dispatching locations, creating a work culture of frequent walking breaks, and interventions focusing on smoking, physical activity, and weight management. Improving health insurance coverage for this group of workers is recommended. PMID:27151321

  7. Chronic disease risk factors among hotel workers

    PubMed Central

    Gawde, Nilesh Chandrakant; Kurlikar, Prashika R.

    2016-01-01

    Context: Non-communicable diseases have emerged as a global health issue. Role of occupation in pathogenesis of non-communicable diseases has not been explored much especially in the hospitality industry. Aims: Objectives of this study include finding risk factor prevalence among hotel workers and studying relationship between occupational group and chronic disease risk factors chiefly high body mass index. Settings and Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted among non-managerial employees from classified hotels in India. Materials and Methods: The study participants self-administered pre-designed pilot-tested questionnaires. Statistical analysis used: The risk factor prevalence rates were expressed as percentages. Chi-square test was used for bi-variate analysis. Overweight was chosen as ‘outcome’ variable of interest and binary multi-logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants. Results: The prevalence rates of tobacco use, alcohol use, inadequate physical activity and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables were 32%, 49%, 24% and 92% respectively among hotel employees. Tobacco use was significantly common among those in food preparation and service, alcohol use among those in food service and security and leisure time physical activity among front office workers. More than two-fifths (42.7%) were overweight. Among the hotel workers, those employed in food preparation and security had higher odds of 1.650 (CI: 1.025 – 2.655) and 3.245 (CI: 1.296 – 8.129) respectively of being overweight. Conclusions: Prevalence of chronic disease risk factors is high among hotel workers. Risk of overweight is significantly high in food preparation and security departments and workplace interventions are necessary to address these risks PMID:27390474

  8. The development of an automated ward independent delirium risk prediction model.

    PubMed

    de Wit, Hugo A J M; Winkens, Bjorn; Mestres Gonzalvo, Carlota; Hurkens, Kim P G M; Mulder, Wubbo J; Janknegt, Rob; Verhey, Frans R; van der Kuy, Paul-Hugo M; Schols, Jos M G A

    2016-08-01

    Background A delirium is common in hospital settings resulting in increased mortality and costs. Prevention of a delirium is clearly preferred over treatment. A delirium risk prediction model can be helpful to identify patients at risk of a delirium, allowing the start of preventive treatment. Current risk prediction models rely on manual calculation of the individual patient risk. Objective The aim of this study was to develop an automated ward independent delirium riskprediction model. To show that such a model can be constructed exclusively from electronically available risk factors and thereby implemented into a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to optimally support the physician to initiate preventive treatment. Setting A Dutch teaching hospital. Methods A retrospective cohort study in which patients, 60 years or older, were selected when admitted to the hospital, with no delirium diagnosis when presenting, or during the first day of admission. We used logistic regression analysis to develop a delirium predictive model out of the electronically available predictive variables. Main outcome measure A delirium risk prediction model. Results A delirium risk prediction model was developed using predictive variables that were significant in the univariable regression analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the "medication model" model was 0.76 after internal validation. Conclusions CDSSs can be used to automatically predict the risk of a delirium in individual hospitalised patients' by exclusively using electronically available predictive variables. To increase the use and improve the quality of predictive models, clinical risk factors should be documented ready for automated use. PMID:27177868

  9. Prenatal and perinatal risk factors of schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Meli, Giampiero; Ottl, Birgit; Paladini, Angela; Cataldi, Luigi

    2012-12-01

    Schizophrenia could be considered the most severe of all psychiatric disorders. It shows a heterogeneous clinical picture and presents an etiopathogenesis that is not cleared sufficiently. Even if the etiopathogenesis remains a puzzle, there is a scientific consensus that it is an expression of interaction between genotype and environmental factors. In the present article, following a study of literature and the accumulated evidence, the role of prenatal and perinatal factors in the development of schizophrenia will be revised and synthesized. We think that better knowledge of the risk factors could be helpful not only for better comprehension of the pathogenesis but especially to optimize interventions for prevention of the disorder. PMID:22646662

  10. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to inves...

  11. Blood Pressure Patterns May Predict Stroke Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. High blood pressure is the number one risk ... of epidemiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Andrew Rogove, M.D., Ph.D., medical director, ...

  12. Carotid Stiffness: A Novel Cerebrovascular Disease Risk Factor

    PubMed Central

    van Sloten, Thomas T.; Stehouwer, Coen D.A.

    2016-01-01

    Carotid stiffening is considered an important element in the pathogenesis of cerebrovascular diseases. These include stroke as well as vascular dementia and depression. However, results of individual studies evaluating the association between carotid stiffening and incident stroke have been inconsistent. Therefore, we have conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, showing that carotid stiffening is associated with incident stroke independently of cardiovascular risk factors and aortic stiffness. In addition, carotid stiffening improved stroke risk prediction beyond the Framingham stroke risk factors and aortic stiffness. Other studies have shown that carotid stiffening is associated with a higher incidence of vascular dementia and depressive symptoms. This suggests that carotid stiffness is a potential separate target for prevention strategies of cerebrovascular disease. PMID:27493900

  13. Bridge: a GUI package for genetic risk prediction

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Risk prediction models capitalizing on genetic and environmental information hold great promise for individualized disease prediction and prevention. Nevertheless, linking the genetic and environmental risk predictors into a useful risk prediction model remains a great challenge. To facilitate risk prediction analyses, we have developed a graphical user interface package, Bridge. Results The package is built for both designing and analyzing a risk prediction model. In the design stage, it provides an estimated classification accuracy of the model using essential genetic and environmental information gained from public resources and/or previous studies, and determines the sample size required to verify this accuracy. In the analysis stage, it adopts a robust and powerful algorithm to form the risk prediction model. Conclusions The package is developed based on the optimality theory of the likelihood ratio and therefore theoretically could form a model with high performance. It can be used to handle a relatively large number of genetic and environmental predictors, with consideration of their possible interactions, and so is particularly useful for studying risk prediction models for common complex diseases. PMID:24359333

  14. What Are the Risk Factors for Breast Cancer in Men?

    MedlinePlus

    ... in men? What are the risk factors for breast cancer in men? A risk factor is anything that ... old when they are diagnosed. Family history of breast cancer Breast cancer risk is increased if other members ...

  15. Drug and Alcohol Use -- A Significant Risk Factor for HIV

    MedlinePlus

    ... A Significant Risk Factor for HIV Drug and Alcohol Use - A Significant Risk Factor for HIV Email ... with HIV currently use drugs or binge on alcohol. Many people are unaware that the increased risk ...

  16. Metabolite Signatures of Metabolic Risk Factors and their Longitudinal Changes.

    PubMed

    Yin, Xiaoyan; Subramanian, Subha; Willinger, Christine M; Chen, George; Juhasz, Peter; Courchesne, Paul; Chen, Brian H; Li, Xiaohang; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Fox, Caroline S; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Muntendam, Pieter; Fuster, Valentin; Bobeldijk-Pastorova, Ivana; Sookoian, Silvia C; Pirola, Carlos J; Gordon, Neal; Adourian, Aram; Larson, Martin G; Levy, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    This study tested metabolite associations with risk factors cross-sectionally and with risk factor changes over time to uncover mechanistic links between metabolomics dysregulation and metabolic risk. PMID:26908103

  17. What Are the Risk Factors for Ovarian Cancer?

    MedlinePlus

    ... Different cancers have different risk factors. For example, unprotected exposure to strong sunlight is a risk factor ... in the stomach and intestine while they are teenagers. They also have a high risk of cancer, ...

  18. Review on risk factors of cervical cancer.

    PubMed

    Chou, P

    1991-08-01

    This article reviews risk factors of cervical cancer which have been studied in the following aspects: (1) sociodemographic factors including educational level, urbanizational level, socioeconomic status, race and marriage; (2) sexual activity including age at first marriage, age at first coitus, multiple marriage, multiple sexual partners, broken marriage, unstable sex relationship, syphilis/gonorrhea history, coital frequency, multiple pregnancies and age at menarche; (3) factors related to husband including circumcision, sperm, smegma, previous wife with cervical cancer and occupations entailed mobility of husband and periods away from home; (4) psychosocial factors including stressful emotional status, deprived economic background and discontent home situation; (5) virus including herpes simplex type 2 and papilloma virus; (6) other factors including smoking, barrier and oral contraceptives. PMID:1654190

  19. Factors Affecting Ejection Risk in Rollover Crashes

    PubMed Central

    Funk, James R.; Cormier, Joseph M.; Bain, Charles E.; Wirth, Jeffrey L.; Bonugli, Enrique B.; Watson, Richard A.

    2012-01-01

    Ejection greatly increases the risk of injury and fatality in a rollover crash. The purpose of this study was to determine the crash, vehicle, and occupant characteristics that affect the risk of ejection in rollovers. Information from real world rollover crashes occurring from 2000 – 2010 was obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) in order to analyze the effect of the following parameters on ejection risk: seatbelt use, rollover severity, vehicle type, seating position, roof crush, side curtain airbag deployment, glazing type, and occupant age, gender, and size. Seatbelt use was found to reduce the risk of partial ejection and virtually eliminate the risk of complete ejection. For belted occupants, the risk of partial ejection risk was significantly increased in rollover crashes involving more roof inversions, light trucks and vans (LTVs), and larger occupants. For unbelted occupants, the risk of complete ejection was significantly increased in rollover crashes involving more roof inversions, LTVs, far side occupants, and higher levels of roof crush. Roof crush was not a significant predictor of ejection after normalizing for rollover severity. Curtain airbag deployment was associated with reduced rates of partial and complete ejection, but the effect was not statistically significant, perhaps due to the small sample size (n = 89 raw cases with curtain deployments). A much greater proportion of occupants who were ejected in spite of curtain airbag deployment passed through the sunroof and other portals as opposed to the adjacent side window compared to occupants who were ejected in rollovers without a curtain airbag deployment. The primary factors that reduce ejection risk in rollover crashes are, in generally decreasing order of importance: seatbelt use, fewer roof inversions, passenger car body type, curtain airbag deployment, near side seating position, and small occupant size. PMID:23169130

  20. Factors affecting ejection risk in rollover crashes.

    PubMed

    Funk, James R; Cormier, Joseph M; Bain, Charles E; Wirth, Jeffrey L; Bonugli, Enrique B; Watson, Richard A

    2012-01-01

    Ejection greatly increases the risk of injury and fatality in a rollover crash. The purpose of this study was to determine the crash, vehicle, and occupant characteristics that affect the risk of ejection in rollovers. Information from real world rollover crashes occurring from 2000 - 2010 was obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) in order to analyze the effect of the following parameters on ejection risk: seatbelt use, rollover severity, vehicle type, seating position, roof crush, side curtain airbag deployment, glazing type, and occupant age, gender, and size. Seatbelt use was found to reduce the risk of partial ejection and virtually eliminate the risk of complete ejection. For belted occupants, the risk of partial ejection risk was significantly increased in rollover crashes involving more roof inversions, light trucks and vans (LTVs), and larger occupants. For unbelted occupants, the risk of complete ejection was significantly increased in rollover crashes involving more roof inversions, LTVs, far side occupants, and higher levels of roof crush. Roof crush was not a significant predictor of ejection after normalizing for rollover severity. Curtain airbag deployment was associated with reduced rates of partial and complete ejection, but the effect was not statistically significant, perhaps due to the small sample size (n = 89 raw cases with curtain deployments). A much greater proportion of occupants who were ejected in spite of curtain airbag deployment passed through the sunroof and other portals as opposed to the adjacent side window compared to occupants who were ejected in rollovers without a curtain airbag deployment. The primary factors that reduce ejection risk in rollover crashes are, in generally decreasing order of importance: seatbelt use, fewer roof inversions, passenger car body type, curtain airbag deployment, near side seating position, and small occupant size. PMID:23169130

  1. Chronic migraine: risk factors, mechanisms and treatment.

    PubMed

    May, Arne; Schulte, Laura H

    2016-08-01

    Chronic migraine has a great detrimental influence on a patient's life, with a severe impact on socioeconomic functioning and quality of life. Chronic migraine affects 1-2% of the general population, and about 8% of patients with migraine; it usually develops from episodic migraine at an annual conversion rate of about 3%. The chronification is reversible: about 26% of patients with chronic migraine go into remission within 2 years of chronification. The most important modifiable risk factors for chronic migraine include overuse of acute migraine medication, ineffective acute treatment, obesity, depression and stressful life events. Moreover, age, female sex and low educational status increase the risk of chronic migraine. The pathophysiology of migraine chronification can be understood as a threshold problem: certain predisposing factors, combined with frequent headache pain, lower the threshold of migraine attacks, thereby increasing the risk of chronic migraine. Treatment options include oral medications, nerve blockade with local anaesthetics or corticoids, and neuromodulation. Well-defined diagnostic criteria are crucial for the identification of chronic migraine. The International Headache Society classification of chronic migraine was recently updated, and now allows co-diagnosis of chronic migraine and medication overuse headache. This Review provides an up-to-date overview of the classification of chronic migraine, basic mechanisms and risk factors of migraine chronification, and the currently established treatment options. PMID:27389092

  2. Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

    PubMed Central

    Connell, Paul P.; Keane, Pearse A.; O'Neill, Evelyn C.; Altaie, Rasha W.; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M.; Beatty, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition. PMID:20339564

  3. Predicting cancer risks from dental computed tomography.

    PubMed

    Wu, T-H; Lin, W-C; Chen, W-K; Chang, Y-C; Hwang, J-J

    2015-01-01

    Dental computed tomography (CT) has become a common tool when carrying out dental implants, yet there is little information available on its associated cancer risk. The objective of this study was to estimate the lifetime-attributable risk (LAR) of cancer incidence that is associated with the radiation dose from dental CT scans and to evaluate the effect of scan position, sex, and age on the cancer risk. This retrospective cohort study involved 505 participants who underwent CT scans. The mean effective doses for male and female patients in the maxilla group were 408 and 389 µSv (P = 0.055), respectively, whereas the mean effective doses for male and female patients in the mandible groups were 475 and 450 µSv (P < 0.001), respectively. The LAR for cancer incidence after mandible CT scanning varied from 1 in 16,196 for a 30-y-old woman to 1 in 114,680 for a 70-y-old man. The organ-specific cancer risks for thyroid cancer, other cancers, leukemia, and lung cancer account for 99% of the LAR. Among patients of all ages, the estimated LAR of a mandible scan was higher than that of a maxilla scan. Furthermore, the LAR for female thyroid cancer had a peak before age 45 y. The risk for a woman aged 30 y is roughly 8 times higher than that of a woman aged 50 y. After undergoing a dental CT scan, the possible cancer risks related to sex and age across various different anatomical regions are not similar. The greatest risk due to a dental CT scan is for a mandible scan when the woman is younger than 45 y. Given the limits of the sample size, machine parameters, and the retrospective nature of this study, the results need to be interpreted within the context of this patient population. Future studies will be of value to corroborate these findings. PMID:25359782

  4. Psychosocial risk factors for coronary heart disease.

    PubMed

    Glozier, Nick; Tofler, Geoffrey H; Colquhoun, David M; Bunker, Stephen J; Clarke, David M; Hare, David L; Hickie, Ian B; Tatoulis, James; Thompson, David R; Wilson, Alison; Branagan, Maree G

    2013-08-01

    In 2003, the National Heart Foundation of Australia published a position statement on psychosocial risk factors and coronary heart disease (CHD). This consensus statement provides an updated review of the literature on psychosocial stressors, including chronic stressors (in particular, work stress), acute individual stressors and acute population stressors, to guide health professionals based on current evidence. It complements a separate updated statement on depression and CHD. Perceived chronic job strain and shift work are associated with a small absolute increased risk of developing CHD, but there is limited evidence regarding their effect on the prognosis of CHD. Evidence regarding a relationship between CHD and job (in)security, job satisfaction, working hours, effort-reward imbalance and job loss is inconclusive. Expert consensus is that workplace programs aimed at weight loss, exercise and other standard cardiovascular risk factors may have positive outcomes for these risk factors, but no evidence is available regarding the effect of such programs on the development of CHD. Social isolation after myocardial infarction (MI) is associated with an adverse prognosis. Expert consensus is that although measures to reduce social isolation are likely to produce positive psychosocial effects, it is unclear whether this would also improve CHD outcomes. Acute emotional stress may trigger MI or takotsubo ("stress") cardiomyopathy, but the absolute increase in transient risk from an individual stressor is low. Psychosocial stressors have an impact on CHD, but clinical significance and prevention require further study. Awareness of the potential for increased cardiovascular risk among populations exposed to natural disasters and other conditions of extreme stress may be useful for emergency services response planning. Wider public access to defibrillators should be available where large populations gather, such as sporting venues and airports, and as part of the response

  5. Student-, classroom-, and school-level risk factors for victimization.

    PubMed

    Saarento, Silja; Kärnä, Antti; Hodges, Ernest V E; Salmivalli, Christina

    2013-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to simultaneously investigate student-, classroom-, and school-level risk factors for victimization. Both peer nominations and students' self-reports of victimization were utilized. The sample consisted of 6731 Finnish elementary school students (3386 girls and 3345 boys) nested in 358 classrooms in 74 schools. The participants were from Grades 3, 4, and 5 (mean age 11years). The results of multilevel analyses indicated that there was considerable variability in, and distinctive risk factors associated with, both peer- and self-reported victimization at all the three levels investigated. Social anxiety and peer rejection synergistically predicted victimization at the student level. At the classroom level, negative social outcome expectations of defending the victim were associated with an increased risk of a student being bullied. Victimization was also common in classrooms and schools where students perceived their teachers to have less disapproving attitudes toward bullying. Furthermore, the effects of the student-level predictors were found to vary across classrooms, and classroom size moderated the effects of social anxiety and peer rejection on victimization. By identifying the risk factors at the multiple levels, and looking into cross-level interactions among these factors, research can help to target interventions at the key ecological factors contributing to victimization, making it possible to maximize the effectiveness of interventions. PMID:23816233

  6. Recent insights on risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Abdel-Hamid, Nabil Mohie

    2009-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a disease prevalent in many populations worldwide. It initiates many economic and health problems in management modalities and leads to increasing mortality rates. Worldwide, trials have attempted to discover specific early markers for detection and prediction of the disease, hoping to set a more precise strategy for liver cancer prevention. Unfortunately, many economic, cultural and disciplinary levels contribute to confounding preventive strategies. Many risk factors contribute to predisposition to HCC, which can present individually or simultaneously. Previous articles discussed many risk factors for hepatocellular carcinogenesis; however, most of them didn't consider collectively the most recent data relating to causes. In this article, the pathogenesis and risk factors of HCC are discussed. Most of the intermediary steps of HCC involve molecular and transcriptional events leading to hepatocyte malignant transformation. These steps are mainly triggered by hepatitis B, C or transfusion-transmitted virus, either alone, or with other factors. Diabetes seems to be a major contributing risk factor. Schistosomiasis, a blood infestation, mostly affects Nile basin inhabitants leading to bladder, renal and hepatic cancers. Alcoholism, food and water pollutants and some drugs can also lead to HCC. Additionally, some hereditary diseases, as hemochromatosis, α-1-antitrypsin deficiency and tyrosinaemia are known to lead to the development of HCC, if not well managed. PMID:21160959

  7. Utilizing Dental Electronic Health Records Data to Predict Risk for Periodontal Disease.

    PubMed

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Vyawahare, Karnali; Darade, Pratiksha; Paranjape, Rhucha

    2015-01-01

    Periodontal disease is a major cause for tooth loss and adversely affects individuals' oral health and quality of life. Research shows its potential association with systemic diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and social habits such as smoking. This study explores mining potential risk factors from dental electronic health records to predict and display patients' contextualized risk for periodontal disease. We retrieved relevant risk factors from structured and unstructured data on 2,370 patients who underwent comprehensive oral examinations at the Indiana University School of Dentistry, Indianapolis, IN, USA. Predicting overall risk and displaying relationships between risk factors and their influence on the patient's oral and general health can be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians at the point of care. PMID:26262380

  8. The risk factors for labor onset hypertension.

    PubMed

    Ohno, Yasumasa; Terauchi, Mikio; Tamakoshi, Koji; Shiozaki, Arihiro; Saito, Shigeru

    2016-04-01

    Our aim was to clarify the perinatal outcomes of and risk factors for hypertension that is first detected after labor onset (labor onset hypertension, LOH), which may be a risk factor for eclampsia and stroke during labor. A total of 1349 parturient women who did not exhibit preeclampsia or gestational hypertension prior to labor were examined. The patients were classified into four groups: the normotensive (n=1023) (whose systolic blood pressure (SBP) remained below 140 mm Hg throughout labor), mild LOH (n=241) (whose maximum SBP during labor ranged from 140 to 159 mm Hg), severe LOH (n=66) (whose maximum SBP during labor ranged from 160 to 179 mm Hg) and emergent LOH groups (n=19) (whose maximum SBP during labor was greater than 180 mm Hg). The perinatal outcomes and patient characteristics of the four groups were compared. Twenty-four percent of the pregnant women who remained normotensive throughout pregnancy developed hypertension during labor. One of the patients in the emergent LOH group developed eclampsia. The blood pressure at delivery and frequencies of hypotensor use, interventional delivery and low Apgar scores differed significantly among the four groups. The following risk factors for severe/emergent LOH were extracted: being over 35 years old, a body mass index at delivery of >30, an SBP at 36 weeks' gestation of 130-134 mm Hg, an SBP at admission of 130-139 mm Hg, proteinuria (a score of 2+ on the dipstick test) and severe edema. The risk factors for severe/emergent LOH were identified in this study. In high risk cases, repeatedly measuring maternal blood pressure during delivery might help detect critical hypertension early. PMID:26490090

  9. Demographic factors predict magnitude of conditioned fear.

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, Blake L; Bui, Eric; Marin, Marie-France; Holt, Daphne J; Lasko, Natasha B; Pitman, Roger K; Orr, Scott P; Milad, Mohammed R

    2015-10-01

    There is substantial variability across individuals in the magnitudes of their skin conductance (SC) responses during the acquisition and extinction of conditioned fear. To manage this variability, subjects may be matched for demographic variables, such as age, gender and education. However, limited data exist addressing how much variability in conditioned SC responses is actually explained by these variables. The present study assessed the influence of age, gender and education on the SC responses of 222 subjects who underwent the same differential conditioning paradigm. The demographic variables were found to predict a small but significant amount of variability in conditioned responding during fear acquisition, but not fear extinction learning or extinction recall. A larger differential change in SC during acquisition was associated with more education. Older participants and women showed smaller differential SC during acquisition. Our findings support the need to consider age, gender and education when studying fear acquisition but not necessarily when examining fear extinction learning and recall. Variability in demographic factors across studies may partially explain the difficulty in reproducing some SC findings. PMID:26151498

  10. Predicting the risk of sudden cardiac death.

    PubMed

    Lerma, Claudia; Glass, Leon

    2016-05-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the result of a change of cardiac activity from normal (typically sinus) rhythm to a rhythm that does not pump adequate blood to the brain. The most common rhythms leading to SCD are ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF). These result from an accelerated ventricular pacemaker or ventricular reentrant waves. Despite significant efforts to develop accurate predictors for the risk of SCD, current methods for risk stratification still need to be improved. In this article we briefly review current approaches to risk stratification. Then we discuss the mathematical basis for dynamical transitions (called bifurcations) that may lead to VT and VF. One mechanism for transition to VT or VF involves a perturbation by a premature ventricular complex (PVC) during sinus rhythm. We describe the main mechanisms of PVCs (reentry, independent pacemakers and abnormal depolarizations). An emerging approach to risk stratification for SCD involves the development of individualized dynamical models of a patient based on measured anatomy and physiology. Careful analysis and modelling of dynamics of ventricular arrhythmia on an individual basis will be essential in order to improve risk stratification for SCD and to lay a foundation for personalized (precision) medicine in cardiology. PMID:26660287

  11. Risk factors for dementia with Lewy bodies

    PubMed Central

    Boot, Brendon P.; Orr, Carolyn F.; Ahlskog, J. Eric; Ferman, Tanis J.; Roberts, Rosebud; Pankratz, Vernon S.; Dickson, Dennis W.; Parisi, Joseph; Aakre, Jeremiah A.; Geda, Yonas E.; Knopman, David S.; Petersen, Ronald C.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To determine the risk factors associated with dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). Methods: We identified 147 subjects with DLB and sampled 2 sex- and age-matched cognitively normal control subjects for each case. We also identified an unmatched comparison group of 236 subjects with Alzheimer disease (AD). We evaluated 19 candidate risk factors in the study cohort. Results: Compared with controls, subjects with DLB were more likely to have a history of anxiety (odds ratio; 95% confidence interval) (7.4; 3.5–16; p < 0.0001), depression (6.0; 3.7–9.5; p < 0.0001), stroke (2.8; 1.3–6.3; p = 0.01), a family history of Parkinson disease (PD) (4.6; 2.5–8.6; p < 0.0001), and carry APOE ε4 alleles (2.2; 1.5–3.3; p < 0.0001), but less likely to have had cancer (0.44; 0.27–0.70; p = 0.0006) or use caffeine (0.29; 0.14–0.57; p < 0.0001) with a similar trend for alcohol (0.65; 0.42–1.0; p = 0.0501). Compared with subjects with AD, subjects with DLB were younger (72.5 vs 74.9 years, p = 0.021) and more likely to be male (odds ratio; 95% confidence interval) (5.3; 3.3–8.5; p < 0.0001), have a history of depression (4.3; 2.4–7.5; p < 0.0001), be more educated (2.5; 1.1–5.6; p = 0.031), have a positive family history of PD (5.0; 2.4–10; p < 0.0001), have no APOE ε4 alleles (0.61; 0.40–0.93; p = 0.02), and to have had an oophorectomy before age 45 years (7.6; 1.5–39; p = 0.015). Conclusion: DLB risk factors are an amalgam of those for AD and PD. Smoking and education, which have opposing risk effects on AD and PD, are not risk factors for DLB; however, depression and low caffeine intake, both risk factors for AD and PD, increase risk of DLB more strongly than in either. PMID:23892702

  12. Risk factors for suicidal behavior in adolescents.

    PubMed

    Kirkcaldy, B D; Siefen, G R; Urkin, J; Merrick, J

    2006-10-01

    Adolescent suicide is today a public health problem among the leading cause of mortality among adolescents and young adults. There seems to be many reasons for this increase (which has different trends in different populations), but associations have been found with increased substance abuse, television and video violence, socio-economic status and easy access to firearms. Gender differences have also been observed with crime, suicide and substance abuse higher among males, while eating disorder, depression and suicidal behavior more prevalent among females. This paper will review prevalence and incidence of adolescent suicidal behavior, socio-demographic and psychological risk factors, associated cognitive factors and socio-economic factors. Risk factors include previous suicide attempts, a history of others in the family who have been suicidal, mental illness, alcohol and drug use, and other self-destructive behaviors as well as consideration being given to hopelessness, hostility, negative self-concept and isolation. At the individual difference level, factors such as trait depression, anger and hostility, perfectionism and social sensitivity would seem critical variables, as would age, gender and intellectual functioning. Sociological and family-related factors may also be implicated including dysfunctional family organizations, a history of physical or psychological abuse (sexual abuse) and limited extent of social support networks. A frequently reported precipitating event of suicidal behavior is family adversity including rejection, separation and interpersonal conflict. At a socio-economic level it would seem essential to provide comprehensive document about the social and economic conditions from which the adolescent comes. PMID:17008855

  13. Breast cancer epidemiology and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Broeders, M J; Verbeek, A L

    1997-09-01

    Breast cancer is the most common malignancy among women in the Western society. Over the past decades it has become apparent that breast cancer incidence rates are increasing steadily, whereas the mortality rates for breast cancer have remained relatively constant. Information through the media on this rising number of cases has increased breast health awareness but has also introduced anxiety in the female population. This combination of factors has made the need for prevention of breast cancer an urgent matter. Breast cancer does not seem to be a single disease entity. A specific etiologic factor may therefore have more influence on one form of breast cancer than another. So far though, as shown in our summary of current knowledge on established and dubious risk factors, no risk factors have been identified that can explain a major part of the incidence. Efforts to identify other ways for primary prevention have also been discouraging, even though breast cancer is one of the most investigated tumours world-wide. Thus, at this point in time, the most important strategy to reduce breast cancer mortality is early detection through individual counselling and organised breast screening programs. The recent isolation of breast cancer susceptibility genes may introduce new ways to reduce the risk of breast cancer in a small subset of women. PMID:9274126

  14. Treatment Efficacy and Risk Factors of Neurobrucellosis

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Shigang; Cheng, Yan; Liao, Yali; Zhang, Zhelin; Yin, Xuhua; Shi, Shujun

    2016-01-01

    Background This study aimed to analyze the risk factors and treatment efficacy of neurobrucellosis. Material/Methods A cross-sectional epidemiologic survey was carried out in 557 patients with brucellosis by specially trained neurologic clinicians. Sixty-six patients with neurobrucellosis were treated with doxycycline, rifampicin, and ceftriaxone sodium as standard medication and evaluated for efficacy on a regular basis. Results (1) Symptoms improved in most patients after 6 weeks of treatment, which demonstrated a favorable efficacy. (2) Cross-sectional epidemiologic survey suggested that sex, nationality, and regional distribution were not related to nervous system damage in patients with brucellosis (P>0.05), whereas age and duration of disease were related factors. Increased age as well as a prolonged duration of disease were risk factors for nervous system damage in patients with brucellosis (P<0.05). Conclusions (1) Doxycycline, rifampicin, and third-generation cephalosporins should be considered both standard and first-choice medications for neurobrucellosis. Treatment should last for at least 6 weeks. Standardized, sufficient, and combined medication is recommended for better efficacy and prognosis. (2) Age and duration of disease are risk factors for neurobrucellosis, whereas sex, nationality, and regional distribution are not. Older patients with a prolonged duration of disease are more likely to develop neurobrucellosis. PMID:27018084

  15. Treatment Efficacy and Risk Factors of Neurobrucellosis.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Shigang; Cheng, Yan; Liao, Yali; Zhang, Zhelin; Yin, Xuhua; Shi, Shujun

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND This study aimed to analyze the risk factors and treatment efficacy of neurobrucellosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS A cross-sectional epidemiologic survey was carried out in 557 patients with brucellosis by specially trained neurologic clinicians. Sixty-six patients with neurobrucellosis were treated with doxycycline, rifampicin, and ceftriaxone sodium as standard medication and evaluated for efficacy on a regular basis. RESULTS (1) Symptoms improved in most patients after 6 weeks of treatment, which demonstrated a favorable efficacy. (2) Cross-sectional epidemiologic survey suggested that sex, nationality, and regional distribution were not related to nervous system damage in patients with brucellosis (P>0.05), whereas age and duration of disease were related factors. Increased age as well as a prolonged duration of disease were risk factors for nervous system damage in patients with brucellosis (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS (1) Doxycycline, rifampicin, and third-generation cephalosporins should be considered both standard and first-choice medications for neurobrucellosis. Treatment should last for at least 6 weeks. Standardized, sufficient, and combined medication is recommended for better efficacy and prognosis. (2) Age and duration of disease are risk factors for neurobrucellosis, whereas sex, nationality, and regional distribution are not. Older patients with a prolonged duration of disease are more likely to develop neurobrucellosis. PMID:27018084

  16. Analysis of Risk and Protective Factors for Recidivism in Spanish Youth Offenders.

    PubMed

    Cuervo, Keren; Villanueva, Lidón

    2015-10-01

    Although a large body of research has studied the factors associated to general recidivism, predictive validity of these factors has received less attention. Andrews and Bonta's General Personality and Social-Psychological Model attempts to provide an in-depth explanation of risk and protective factors in relation to youth recidivism. The Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory was administered to 210 adolescents aged between 14 and 18 with a criminal record to analyse risk and protective factors in relation to youth recidivism. Their possible differential contribution over a 2-year follow-up period was also examined. Risk factors showed good levels of recidivism prediction. The factors that emerged as the most discriminative were education/employment, leisure/recreation, and personality. Protective factors differentiated between recidivists and non-recidivists in all factors. Hence, results showed that not only individual but also social factors would be crucial in predicting recidivism. PMID:25406141

  17. Predicting Risk Sensitivity in Humans and Lower Animals: Risk as Variance or Coefficient of Variation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weber, Elke U.; Shafir, Sharoni; Blais, Ann-Renee

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk…

  18. Predictive model of avian electrocution risk on overhead power lines.

    PubMed

    Dwyer, J F; Harness, R E; Donohue, K

    2014-02-01

    Electrocution on overhead power structures negatively affects avian populations in diverse ecosystems worldwide, contributes to the endangerment of raptor populations in Europe and Africa, and is a major driver of legal action against electric utilities in North America. We investigated factors associated with avian electrocutions so poles that are likely to electrocute a bird can be identified and retrofitted prior to causing avian mortality. We used historical data from southern California to identify patterns of avian electrocution by voltage, month, and year to identify species most often killed by electrocution in our study area and to develop a predictive model that compared poles where an avian electrocution was known to have occurred (electrocution poles) with poles where no known electrocution occurred (comparison poles). We chose variables that could be quantified by personnel with little training in ornithology or electric systems. Electrocutions were more common at distribution voltages (≤ 33 kV) and during breeding seasons and were more commonly reported after a retrofitting program began. Red-tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) (n = 265) and American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) (n = 258) were the most commonly electrocuted species. In the predictive model, 4 of 14 candidate variables were required to distinguish electrocution poles from comparison poles: number of jumpers (short wires connecting energized equipment), number of primary conductors, presence of grounding, and presence of unforested unpaved areas as the dominant nearby land cover. When tested against a sample of poles not used to build the model, our model distributed poles relatively normally across electrocution-risk values and identified the average risk as higher for electrocution poles relative to comparison poles. Our model can be used to reduce avian electrocutions through proactive identification and targeting of high-risk poles for retrofitting. PMID:24033371

  19. Risk factors for depression after a disaster.

    PubMed

    Person, Cheryl; Tracy, Melissa; Galea, Sandro

    2006-09-01

    Environmental stressors such as mass disasters may contribute to an increased prevalence of depression within the population affected. We examined the prevalence of probable major depression and risk factors for depression in the 6-month period after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center among New York City (NYC) metropolitan residents. A total of 2700 persons who were representative of the NYC metropolitan area were included in this cross-sectional telephone survey. The prevalence of probable major depression in the 6 months after the attacks was 9.4%. Multivariate logistic regression covariates associated with the likelihood of probable major depression included being directly affected by the attacks, having a perievent panic attack, experiencing multiple life stressors, and having been exposed to previous traumatic events. Mass traumatic event exposure appears to be an independent environmental risk factor for depression in the postdisaster context; specific reactions such as perievent panic attacks may have prognostic value. PMID:16971817

  20. Bacterial meningitis: a new risk factor

    PubMed Central

    Ataee, Ramezan Ali; Mehrabi-Tavana, Ali; Izadi, Morteza; Hosseini, Sayed Mohammad Javad; Ataee, Mohammad Hossein

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to discuss a possible new risk factor for the bacterial meningitis. METHODS: Cerebrospinal fluid collected from 270 patients was assayed. An enzyme immunosorbent assay for the detection of Staphylococcal enterotoxins A to E was used. RESULTS: The results indicated that the frequency of Coagulase Negative Staphylococci (CoNS) was 35 (20.46%). An important finding of this research was that the CoNS isolates produced enterotoxin C and D or enterotoxin C and E. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report of enterotoxin-producing Coagulase Negative Staphylococci isolated from CSF patients. Therefore, these enterotoxins probably act as risk factors in the bacterial invasion into central nervous system. PMID:22091233

  1. Trends in major risk factors. Cigarette smoking.

    PubMed Central

    Simpson, D.

    1984-01-01

    The object of this paper is to examine the role of smoking as a risk factor in coronary heart disease, starting with a brief history of smoking in the U.K. and a reminder of the epidemiological evidence linking smoking and cardiovascular disease. This is followed by a more detailed look at the trends in consumption of tobacco and the major factors influencing those trends, together with an outline of the main components of a smoking control policy designed to combat our epidemic of smoking-induced disease. PMID:6694941

  2. Risk factors for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Ingre, Caroline; Roos, Per M; Piehl, Fredrik; Kamel, Freya; Fang, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is the most common motor neuron disease. It is typically fatal within 2–5 years of symptom onset. The incidence of ALS is largely uniform across most parts of the world, but an increasing ALS incidence during the last decades has been suggested. Although recent genetic studies have substantially improved our understanding of the causes of ALS, especially familial ALS, an important role of non-genetic factors in ALS is recognized and needs further study. In this review, we briefly discuss several major genetic contributors to ALS identified to date, followed by a more focused discussion on the most commonly examined non-genetic risk factors for ALS. We first review factors related to lifestyle choices, including smoking, intake of antioxidants, physical fitness, body mass index, and physical exercise, followed by factors related to occupational and environmental exposures, including electromagnetic fields, metals, pesticides, β-methylamino-L-alanine, and viral infection. Potential links between ALS and other medical conditions, including head trauma, metabolic diseases, cancer, and inflammatory diseases, are also discussed. Finally, we outline several future directions aiming to more efficiently examine the role of non-genetic risk factors in ALS. PMID:25709501

  3. Risk factors for hypospadias in China

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Ling-Fan; Liang, Chao-Zhao; Lipianskaya, Julia; Chen, Xian-Guo; Fan, Song; Zhang, Li; Zhou, Jun; Tai, Sheng; Jiang, Chang-Qin

    2014-01-01

    This case-controlled study was designed to evaluate the association between various baseline parental factors and the risk of hypospadias in China. Patients were selected from tertiary referral hospitals in Anhui, a province in mid-eastern China. A questionnaire was given to the parents of each patient. The final database included 193 cases and 835 controls. The incidence of additional coexistent anomalies was 13.0%, primarily cryptorchidism (9.8%). Ten patients (5.1%) were from families with genital anomaly, including five families (2.6%) with hypospadias. The risks of hypospadias was higher for children of mothers > 35 (odds ratio [OR] =1.47) and < 18 (OR = 2.95) years of age, and in mothers who had consumed alcohol (OR = 2.67), used drugs (OR = 1.53) and had an infection (OR = 1.87) during pregnancy. The risk of hypospadias was also higher when mothers (OR = 1.68) and fathers (OR = 1.74) were engaged in agriculture. Other factors assessed were not associated with the risk of hypospadias. PMID:24875823

  4. Engaging Physicians in Risk Factor Reduction

    PubMed Central

    Friedman, Felix; Gumnit, Stephen A.; Schmidt, Eric J.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract OptumHealth tested the feasibility of physician-directed population management in 3 primary care practices and with 546 continuously insured patients who exhibited claims markers for coronary artery disease, diabetes, and/or hypertension. During the intervention portion of the study, we asked physicians to improve the following health measurements: blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, and smoking status. We offered a modest pay-for-outcomes incentive for each risk factor improvement achieved. Additionally, on an eligible subset of these patients, we asked physicians to actively refer to population management programs those patients they determined could benefit from nurse or health coach interventions, advising us as to which components of their treatment plan they wished us to address. The 6-month intervention period exhibited a 10-fold improvement in the trend rate of risk factor management success when compared to the prior 6-month period for the same patients. A net of 96 distinct risk factor improvements were achieved by the 546 patients during the intervention period, whereas 9 net risk factor improvements occurred in the comparison period. This difference in improvement trends was statistically significant at P < 0.01. Of the 546 study participants, a subset of 187 members was eligible for participation in OptumHealth care management programs. Physicians identified 80 of these 187 eligible members as appropriate targets for program intervention. Representing ourselves as “calling on behalf” of the physician practices, we established contact with 50 referred members; 43 members (86%) actively enrolled in our programs. This enrollment rate is 2 to 3 times the rate of enrollment through our standard program outreach methods. We conclude that physician-directed population management with aligned incentives offers promise as a method of achieving important health and wellness goals. (Population Health Management 2010

  5. Engaging physicians in risk factor reduction.

    PubMed

    Springrose, James V; Friedman, Felix; Gumnit, Stephen A; Schmidt, Eric J

    2010-10-01

    OptumHealth tested the feasibility of physician-directed population management in 3 primary care practices and with 546 continuously insured patients who exhibited claims markers for coronary artery disease, diabetes, and/or hypertension. During the intervention portion of the study, we asked physicians to improve the following health measurements: blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, and smoking status. We offered a modest pay-for-outcomes incentive for each risk factor improvement achieved. Additionally, on an eligible subset of these patients, we asked physicians to actively refer to population management programs those patients they determined could benefit from nurse or health coach interventions, advising us as to which components of their treatment plan they wished us to address. The 6-month intervention period exhibited a 10-fold improvement in the trend rate of risk factor management success when compared to the prior 6-month period for the same patients. A net of 96 distinct risk factor improvements were achieved by the 546 patients during the intervention period, whereas 9 net risk factor improvements occurred in the comparison period. This difference in improvement trends was statistically significant at P < 0.01. Of the 546 study participants, a subset of 187 members was eligible for participation in OptumHealth care management programs. Physicians identified 80 of these 187 eligible members as appropriate targets for program intervention. Representing ourselves as "calling on behalf" of the physician practices, we established contact with 50 referred members; 43 members (86%) actively enrolled in our programs. This enrollment rate is 2 to 3 times the rate of enrollment through our standard program outreach methods. We conclude that physician-directed population management with aligned incentives offers promise as a method of achieving important health and wellness goals. PMID:20879906

  6. Risk Factors for Herpes Zoster Among Adults.

    PubMed

    Marin, Mona; Harpaz, Rafael; Zhang, John; Wollan, Peter C; Bialek, Stephanie R; Yawn, Barbara P

    2016-09-01

    Background.  The causes of varicella-zoster virus reactivation and herpes zoster (HZ) are largely unknown. We assessed potential risk factors for HZ, the data for which cannot be obtained from the medical sector. Methods.  We conducted a matched case-control study. We established active surveillance in Olmsted County, Minnesota to identify HZ occurring among persons age ≥50 years during 2010-2011. Cases were confirmed by medical record review. Herpes zoster-free controls were age- and sex-matched to cases. Risk factor data were obtained by telephone interview. Results.  We enrolled 389 HZ case patients and 511 matched controls; the median age was 65 and 66 years, respectively. Herpes zoster was associated with family history of HZ (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.65); association was highest with first-degree or multiple relatives (aOR = 1.87 and 3.08, respectively). Herpes zoster was also associated with prior HZ episodes (aOR = 1.82), sleep disturbance (aOR = 2.52), depression (aOR = 3.81), and recent weight loss (aOR = 1.95). Stress was a risk factor for HZ (aOR = 2.80), whereas a dose-response relationship was not noted. All associations indicated were statistically significant (P < .05). Herpes zoster was not associated with trauma, smoking, tonsillectomy, diet, or reported exposure to pesticides or herbicides (P > .1). Conclusions.  We identified several important risk factors for HZ; however, the key attributable causes of HZ remain unknown. PMID:27382600

  7. Perinatal Risk Factors for Mild Motor Disability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hands, Beth; Kendall, Garth; Larkin, Dawne; Parker, Helen

    2009-01-01

    The aetiology of mild motor disability (MMD) is a complex issue and as yet is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify the prevalence of perinatal risk factors in a cohort of 10-year-old boys and girls with (n = 362) and without (n = 1193) MMD. Among the males with MMD there was a higher prevalence of postpartum haemorrhage,…

  8. Risk Factors for Herpes Zoster Among Adults

    PubMed Central

    Marin, Mona; Harpaz, Rafael; Zhang, John; Wollan, Peter C.; Bialek, Stephanie R.; Yawn, Barbara P.

    2016-01-01

    Background. The causes of varicella-zoster virus reactivation and herpes zoster (HZ) are largely unknown. We assessed potential risk factors for HZ, the data for which cannot be obtained from the medical sector. Methods. We conducted a matched case-control study. We established active surveillance in Olmsted County, Minnesota to identify HZ occurring among persons age ≥50 years during 2010–2011. Cases were confirmed by medical record review. Herpes zoster-free controls were age- and sex-matched to cases. Risk factor data were obtained by telephone interview. Results. We enrolled 389 HZ case patients and 511 matched controls; the median age was 65 and 66 years, respectively. Herpes zoster was associated with family history of HZ (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.65); association was highest with first-degree or multiple relatives (aOR = 1.87 and 3.08, respectively). Herpes zoster was also associated with prior HZ episodes (aOR = 1.82), sleep disturbance (aOR = 2.52), depression (aOR = 3.81), and recent weight loss (aOR = 1.95). Stress was a risk factor for HZ (aOR = 2.80), whereas a dose-response relationship was not noted. All associations indicated were statistically significant (P < .05). Herpes zoster was not associated with trauma, smoking, tonsillectomy, diet, or reported exposure to pesticides or herbicides (P > .1). Conclusions. We identified several important risk factors for HZ; however, the key attributable causes of HZ remain unknown. PMID:27382600

  9. Management of patients with risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Waldfahrer, Frank

    2013-01-01

    This review addresses concomitant diseases and risk factors in patients treated for diseases of the ears, nose and throat in outpatient and hospital services. Besides heart disease, lung disease, liver disease and kidney disease, this article also covers disorders of coagulation (including therapy with new oral anticoagulants) and electrolyte imbalance. Special attention is paid to the prophylaxis, diagnosis and treatment of perioperative delirium. It is also intended to help optimise the preparation for surgical procedures and pharmacotherapy during the hospital stay. PMID:24403970

  10. Studying Risk Factors Associated with Human Leptospirosis

    PubMed Central

    Kamath, Ramachandra; Swain, Subhashisa; Pattanshetty, Sanjay; Nair, N Sreekumaran

    2014-01-01

    Background: Leptospirosis is one of the most under diagnosed and underreported disease in both developed and developing countries including India. It is established that environmental conditions and occupational habit of the individuals put them at risk of acquiring disease, which varies from community to community. Various seroprevalence studies across the world have documented emerging situation of this neglected tropical disease, but limited have probed to identify the risk factors, especially in India. Objectives: The objective of this study was to identify the environmental and occupational risk factors associated with the disease in Udupi District. Materials and Methods: This population-based case-control study was carried out in Udupi, a District in Southern India from April 2012 until August 2012. Udupi is considered to be endemic for Leptospirosis and reported 116 confirmed cases in the year 2011. Seventy of 116 laboratory confirmed cases and 140 sex matched neighborhood healthy controls participated in the study. A predesigned, semi-structured and validated questionnaire was used for data collection through house to house visit and observations were noted about environmental conditions. Univariate analysis followed by multivariate analysis (back ward conditional logistic regression) was performed by using STATA version 9.2 (StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA) to identify potential risk factors. Results: Occupational factors such as outdoor activities (matched odds ratio [OR] of 3.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-13.0), presence of cut or wound at body parts during work (matched OR: 4.88, CI: 1.83-13.02) and environmental factors such as contact with rodents through using the food materials ate by rat (matched OR: 4.29, CI: 1.45-12.73) and contact with soil or water contaminated with urine of rat (matched OR: 4.58, CI: 1.43-14.67) were the risk factors identified to be associated with disease. Conclusion: Leptospirosis is still considered as

  11. Submission Form for Peer-Reviewed Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    If you have information about a peer-reviewd cancer risk prediction model that you would like to be considered for inclusion on this list, submit as much information as possible through the form on this page.

  12. Risk factors associated with facial fractures.

    PubMed

    Batista, Anne Margareth; Ferreira, Fernanda de Oliveira; Marques, Leandro Silva; Ramos-Jorge, Maria Letícia; Ferreira, Meire Coelho

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to identify risk factors for facial fractures in patients treated in the emergency department of a hospital. The medical charts of 1121 patients treated in an emergency ward over a three-year period were analyzed. The independent variables were gender, age, place of residence (urban or rural area) and type of accident. The dependent variables were fractured mandible, zygoma, maxilla, nasal bone and more than one fractured facial bone. Statistical analysis was performed using the chi-square test (a < 0.05), univariate and multivariate Poisson distributions and the logistic regression analysis (p < 0.20). Maxillofacial trauma was recorded in 790 charts (70.5%), with 393 (35.1%) charts reporting facial fractures. Motorcycle accidents were found to be the main risk factor for mandibular fractures (PR = 1.576, CI = 1.402-1.772) and simultaneous fractures of more than one facial bone (OR = 4.625, CI = 1.888-11.329) as well as the only risk factor for maxillary bone fractures (OR = 11.032, CI = 5.294-22.989). Fractures of the zygomatic and nasal bones were mainly associated with accidents involving animals (PR = 1.206, CI = 1.104-1.317) and sports (OR = 8.710, CI = 4.006-18.936), respectively. The determinant for the majority of facial fractures was motorcycle accidents, followed by accidents involving animals and sports. PMID:22473346

  13. Risk factors for adenocarcinoma of the lung

    SciTech Connect

    Brownson, R.C.; Reif, J.S.; Keefe, T.J.; Ferguson, S.W.; Pritzl, J.A.

    1987-01-01

    The relation between various risk factors and adenocarcinoma of the lung was evaluated in a case-control study. Subjects were selected from the Colorado Central Cancer Registry from 1979-1982 in the Denver metropolitan area. A total of 102 (50 males and 52 females) adenocarcinoma case interviews and 131 (65 males and 66 females) control interviews were completed. The control group consisted of persons with cancers of the colon and bone marrow. The risk estimates associated with cigarette smoking were significantly elevated among males (odds ratio (OR) = 4.49) and females (OR = 3.95) and were found to increase significantly (p less than 0.01) with increasing levels of cigarette smoking for both males and females. For adenocarcinoma in females, the age- and smoking-adjusted odds ratios at different levels of passive smoke exposure followed an increasing overall trend (p = 0.05). After additional adjustment for potential confounders, prior cigarette use remained the most significant predictor of risk of adenocarcinoma among males and females. Analysis restricted to nonsmoking females revealed a risk of adenocarcinoma of 1.68 (95% confidence interval (Cl) = 0.39-2.97) for passive smoke exposure of four or more hours per day. Neither sex showed significantly elevated risk for occupational exposures, although males bordered on significance (OR = 2.23, 95% Cl = 0.97-5.12). The results suggest the need to develop cell type-specific etiologic hypotheses.

  14. Examining Overgeneral Autobiographical Memory as a Risk Factor for Adolescent Depression

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rawal, Adhip; Rice, Frances

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Identifying risk factors for adolescent depression is an important research aim. Overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) is a feature of adolescent depression and a candidate cognitive risk factor for future depression. However, no study has ascertained whether OGM predicts the onset of adolescent depressive disorder. OGM was…

  15. Perceived risk factors and risk pathways of Rift Valley fever in cattle in Ijara district, Kenya.

    PubMed

    Owange, Nelson O; Ogara, William O; Kasiiti, Jacqueline; Gathura, Peter B; Okuthe, Sam; Sang, Rosemary; Affognon, Hippolyte; Onyango-Ouma, Washington; Landmann, Tobias T O; Mbabu, Murithi

    2014-01-01

    Ijara district in Kenya was one of the hotspots of Rift Valley fever (RVF) during the 2006/2007 outbreak, which led to human and animal deaths causing major economic losses. The main constraint for the control and prevention of RVF is inadequate knowledge of the risk factors for its occurrence and maintenance. This study was aimed at understanding the perceived risk factors and risk pathways of RVF in cattle in Ijara to enable the development of improved community-based disease surveillance, prediction, control and prevention. A cross-sectional study was carried out from September 2012 to June 2013. Thirty-one key informant interviews were conducted with relevant stakeholders to determine the local pastoralists' understanding of risk factors and risk pathways of RVF in cattle in Ijara district. All the key informants perceived the presence of high numbers of mosquitoes and large numbers of cattle to be the most important risk factors contributing to the occurrence of RVF in cattle in Ijara. Key informants classified high rainfall as the most important (12/31) to an important (19/31) risk factor. The main risk pathways were infected mosquitoes that bite cattle whilst grazing and at watering points as well as close contact between domestic animals and wildlife. The likelihood of contamination of the environment as a result of poor handling of carcasses and aborted foetuses during RVF outbreaks was not considered an important pathway. There is therefore a need to conduct regular participatory community awareness sessions on handling of animal carcasses in terms of preparedness, prevention and control of any possible RVF epizootics. Additionally, monitoring of environmental conditions to detect enhanced rainfall and flooding should be prioritised for preparedness. PMID:25686079

  16. Potential Risk Factors of Death in Multiple Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Jelodar, Sina; Jafari, Peyman; Yadollahi, Mahnaz; Sabetian Jahromi, Golnar; Khalili, Hoseynali; Abbasi, Hamidreza; Bolandparvaz, Shahram; Paydar, Shahram

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: rauma has been recognized as one of the leading causes of death in many countries for decades. Reduction in mortality and morbidity rate of trauma cases is one of the most important attitudes in this field. Evaluation of different risk factors have been considered as the main goal of some studies. The purpose of this study was determining potential risk factors of death in trauma patients. Method: In a retrograde study, data of 740 patients admitted during three years (2009-2011) were studied. Demographic data (sex and age), clinical factors (blood pressure, pulse rate, respiratory rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS)), trauma characteristics (location, type of injury, etc.), as well as outcome of patients were evaluated. Data analyses was done using SPSS 18.0. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis was used for recognition of independent predictive factors of death in multiple trauma patients. Results: Of those admitted, majority of patients were male (81.4%), 68% between 18 to 60 years, and 11.2% of them died during the course of treatment. Age; type of trauma; abnormal respiration rate, pulse rate, blood pressure; total GCS ≤8; abnormal pupil size; and head and neck; vertebral, and extremities fractures were obtained as significant predictive factor of death. GCS≤8, head and neck fracture, and abnormal pulse rate were independent death predictors. Conclusion: We identified GCS≤8, head and neck fracture, and abnormal pulse rate as predictive factors of mortality after trauma, which remained independent in the presence of all other factors and potentially treatable. PMID:26495375

  17. Risk factors and cardiovascular disease in Turkey.

    PubMed

    Onat, A

    2001-05-01

    Cardiovascular risk factors as well as morbidity and mortality from coronary heart disease among Turkish adults are herein reviewed. Lipids and lipoproteins are in focus, but other relevant risk factors are also discussed. Turks have distinctively low levels of total and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, associated with high levels of hepatic lipase and fasting triglycerides. In addition, physical inactivity is common in both genders; close to 60% of men have the smoking habit, while obesity is common among Turkish women leading to a high prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in them. These factors probably account for the unanticipated fact that Turkish adults have the pattern of causes of death similar to a developed population, although the process of industrialization is ongoing, the structure of its population is young and overall cholesterol levels are comparatively low. The age-standardized coronary heart disease death rate is estimated to rank among the highest in Europe. The leading independent predictors of coronary events and death [systolic blood pressure, total/HDL-cholesterol ratio, followed by diabetes and (central) obesity] are related to the metabolic syndrome, estimated to prevail in 3-4% of adults aged 30 or over, and to underlie one-eighth of cases of coronary disease. Since several adverse factors exhibit a rising trend, primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease must assume a much higher priority in various issues in Turkey than it currently does. PMID:11368991

  18. Perinatal risk factors for acute myeloid leukemia.

    PubMed

    Crump, Casey; Sundquist, Jan; Sieh, Weiva; Winkleby, Marilyn A; Sundquist, Kristina

    2015-12-01

    Infectious etiologies have been hypothesized for acute leukemias because of their high incidence in early childhood, but have seldom been examined for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We conducted the first large cohort study to examine perinatal factors including season of birth, a proxy for perinatal infectious exposures, and risk of AML in childhood through young adulthood. A national cohort of 3,569,333 persons without Down syndrome who were born in Sweden in 1973-2008 were followed up for AML incidence through 2010 (maximum age 38 years). There were 315 AML cases in 69.7 million person-years of follow-up. We found a sinusoidal pattern in AML risk by season of birth (P < 0.001), with peak risk among persons born in winter. Relative to persons born in summer (June-August), incidence rate ratios for AML were 1.72 (95 % CI 1.25-2.38; P = 0.001) for winter (December-February), 1.37 (95 % CI 0.99-1.90; P = 0.06) for spring (March-May), and 1.27 (95 % CI 0.90-1.80; P = 0.17) for fall (September-November). Other risk factors for AML included high fetal growth, high gestational age at birth, and low maternal education level. These findings did not vary by sex or age at diagnosis. Sex, birth order, parental age, and parental country of birth were not associated with AML. In this large cohort study, birth in winter was associated with increased risk of AML in childhood through young adulthood, possibly related to immunologic effects of early infectious exposures compared with summer birth. These findings warrant further investigation of the role of seasonally varying perinatal exposures in the etiology of AML. PMID:26113060

  19. Risk factors of organ failure in cholangitis with bacteriobilia

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jae Min; Lee, Sang Hyub; Chung, Kwang Hyun; Park, Jin Myung; Lee, Ban Seok; Paik, Woo Hyun; Park, Joo Kyung; Ryu, Ji Kon; Kim, Yong-Tae

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To identify the risk factors for organ failure (OF) in cholangitis with bacteriobilia. METHODS: This study included 182 patients with acute cholangitis who underwent percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage between January 2005 and April 2013. We conducted a retrospective analysis of comprehensive clinical and laboratory data. RESULTS: There were 24 cases (13.2%) of OF and five deaths (2.7%). Bile culture was positive for microbial growth in 130 out of 138 (94.2%) patients. In multivariate analysis of 130 patients with positive bile cultures, significant predictive factors for OF were the presence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) organisms in blood cultures, pre-existing renal dysfunction, and choledocholithiasis as an etiology, with odds ratios of 15.376, 6.319, and 3.573, respectively. We developed a scoring system with a regression coefficient of each significant variable. The OF score was calculated using the following equation: (2.7 × ESBL organisms in blood cultures) + (1.8 × pre-existing renal dysfunction) + (1.3 × choledocholithiasis). This scoring system for predicting OF was highly specific (99.1%) and had a positive predictive value of 86.2%. CONCLUSION: ESBL organisms in blood cultures, pre-existing renal dysfunction, and choledocholithiasis are risk factors for OF in cholangitis with bacteriobilia. The OF scoring system may aid clinicians to identify a poor prognosis group. PMID:26139997

  20. Risk Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in India

    PubMed Central

    Kar, Premashis

    2014-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important cause of death all over the world, more so in Asia and Africa. The representative data on epidemiology of HCC in India is very scanty and cancer is not a reportable disease in India and the cancer registries in India are mostly urban. 45 million people who are suffering from chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and approximately 15 million people who are afflicted with chronic Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in India. HBV and HCV infection is considered an important etiologic factor in HCC. Positive association between HCC and consumption of alcohol where alcohol contribute as a cofactor for hepatotoxins and hepatitis viruses. Aflatoxin contamination in the diets, Hepatitis B virus infection and liver cirrhosis in Andhra Pradesh, India and direct chronic exposure to aflatoxins was shown to cause liver cirrhosis. Cirrhosis of liver of any cause lead to develop about 70%–90% of HCC. Aflatoxin interact synergistically with Hepatitis B virus (HBV)/Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection which increase the risk of HCC. HBV infection, HBV infection with Aflatoxin exposure, viral infection and alcohol consumption leading to overt cirrhosis of the liver, alcohol consumption leading to cirrhosis of the liver with viral infection are the predominant risk factor for the development of HCC. HCV and alcohol are also associated with HCC in India. Indians develop diabetes at younger age, Asians have strong genetic susceptibility for type II diabetes. Diabetes mellitus is identified as a risk factor for HCC. Prevention of viral infection by universal vaccination against hepatitis virus, HCC surveillance program, preventing alcoholic liver diseases, fungal contamination of grains and ground crops to prevent basically Aflatoxin exposure are important measures to prevent liver diseases and HCC among those at risk. PMID:25755609

  1. Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

    PubMed

    Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

    2014-09-01

    Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health. PMID:24990431

  2. Risk Factors for Idiopathic Optic Neuritis Recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yu-Jiao; Li, Kaijun; He, Jian-Feng

    2014-01-01

    Background Approximately 30–50% of idiopathic optic neuritis (ION) patients experience one or multiple episodes of recurrence. The aim of this study was to search for risk factors for ION recurrence. Methods Clinical data on hospitalized patients diagnosed with ION between January 2003 and January 2011 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University were retrospectively collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on factors that might cause ION recurrence. In total, 115 ION cases (32 recurrent and 83 non-recurrent cases) with complete data were analyzed. The length of the follow-up period ranged from 12 to 108 months (median: 42 months). Results The univariate analysis showed that the recurrence rate for unilateral ION was higher than that for bilateral ION (40% vs. 12%, p = 0.001). Underlying diseases had a significant impact on recurrence (p<0.001): the recurrence rates due to neuromyelitis optica (NMO), multiple sclerosis (MS), demyelinating lesions alone of the central nervous system, and unknown causes were 89%, 70%, 41%, and 8.7%, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that the factors causing relatively high recurrence rates included NMO (odds ratio [OR], 73.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.3 to 740.9), MS (OR, 33.9; 95% CI, 5.2 to 222.2), and demyelinating lesions alone (OR, 8.9; 95% CI, 2.3 to 34.4), unilateral involvement (OR, 5.7; 95% CI, 1.5 to 21.3), relatively low initial glucocorticoid dosage (equivalent to ≤100 mg prednisone/day) (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.0 to 17.9). Conclusion Underlying diseases, laterality (unilateral or bilateral), and initial glucocorticoid dosage are important risk factors of ION recurrence. Clinical physicians are advised to treat ION patients with a sufficient dose of glucocorticoid in the initial treatment stage to reduce the recurrence risk. PMID:25255372

  3. Risk factors for asthma: is prevention possible?

    PubMed

    Beasley, Richard; Semprini, Alex; Mitchell, Edwin A

    2015-09-12

    Asthma is one of the most common diseases in the world, resulting in a substantial burden of disease. Although rates of deaths due to asthma worldwide have reduced greatly over the past 25 years, no available therapeutic regimens can cure asthma, and the burden of asthma will continue to be driven by increasing prevalence. The reasons for the increase in asthma prevalence have not been defined, which limits the opportunities to develop targeted primary prevention measures. Although associations are reported between a wide range of risk factors and childhood asthma, substantiation of causality is inherently difficult from observational studies, and few risk factors have been assessed in primary prevention studies. Furthermore, none of the primary prevention intervention strategies that have undergone scrutiny in randomised controlled trials has provided sufficient evidence to lead to widespread implementation in clinical practice. A better understanding of the factors that cause asthma is urgently needed, and this knowledge could be used to develop public health and pharmacological primary prevention measures that are effective in reducing the prevalence of asthma worldwide. To achieve this it will be necessary to think outside the box, not only in terms of risk factors for the causation of asthma, but also the types of novel primary prevention strategies that are developed, and the research methods used to provide the evidence base for their implementation. In the interim, public health efforts should remain focused on measures with the potential to improve lung and general health, such as: reducing tobacco smoking and environmental tobacco smoke exposure; reducing indoor and outdoor air pollution and occupational exposures; reducing childhood obesity and encouraging a diet high in vegetables and fruit; improving feto-maternal health; encouraging breastfeeding; promoting childhood vaccinations; and reducing social inequalities. PMID:26382999

  4. Risk and protection factors in fatal accidents.

    PubMed

    Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

    2010-03-01

    This paper aims at addressing the interest and appropriateness of performing accident severity analyses that are limited to fatal accident data. Two methodological issues are specifically discussed, namely the accident-size factors (the number of vehicles in the accident and their level of occupancy) and the comparability of the baseline risk. It is argued that - although these two issues are generally at play in accident severity analyses - their effects on, e.g., the estimation of survival probability, are exacerbated if the analysis is limited to fatal accident data. As a solution, it is recommended to control for these effects by (1) including accident-size indicators in the model, (2) focusing on different sub-groups of road-users while specifying the type of opponent in the model, so as to ensure that comparable baseline risks are worked with. These recommendations are applied in order to investigate risk and protection factors of car occupants involved in fatal accidents using data from a recently set up European Fatal Accident Investigation database (Reed and Morris, 2009). The results confirm that the estimated survival probability is affected by accident-size factors and by type of opponent. The car occupants' survival chances are negatively associated with their own age and that of their vehicle. The survival chances are also lower when seatbelt is not used. Front damage, as compared to other damaged car areas, appears to be associated with increased survival probability, but mostly in the case in which the accident opponent was another car. The interest of further investigating accident-size factors and opponent effects in fatal accidents is discussed. PMID:20159090

  5. Erosion—diagnosis and risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Jaeggi, T.

    2008-01-01

    Dental erosion is a multifactorial condition: The interplay of chemical, biological and behavioural factors is crucial and helps explain why some individuals exhibit more erosion than others. The erosive potential of erosive agents like acidic drinks or foodstuffs depends on chemical factors, e.g. pH, titratable acidity, mineral content, clearance on tooth surface and on its calcium-chelation properties. Biological factors such as saliva, acquired pellicle, tooth structure and positioning in relation to soft tissues and tongue are related to the pathogenesis of dental erosion. Furthermore, behavioural factors like eating and drinking habits, regular exercise with dehydration and decrease of salivary flow, excessive oral hygiene and, on the other side, an unhealthy lifestyle, e.g. chronic alcoholism, are predisposing factors for dental erosion. There is some evidence that dental erosion is growing steadily. To prevent further progression, it is important to detect this condition as early as possible. Dentists have to know the clinical appearance and possible signs of progression of erosive lesions and their causes such that adequate preventive and, if necessary, therapeutic measures can be initiated. The clinical examination has to be done systematically, and a comprehensive case history should be undertaken such that all risk factors will be revealed. PMID:18228059

  6. Predicting Risk of Suicide Attempt Using History of Physical Illnesses From Electronic Medical Records

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Wei; Tran, Truyen; Berk, Michael; Venkatesh, Svetha

    2016-01-01

    Background Although physical illnesses, routinely documented in electronic medical records (EMR), have been found to be a contributing factor to suicides, no automated systems use this information to predict suicide risk. Objective The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of physical illnesses on suicide risk, and develop a predictive model that captures this relationship using EMR data. Methods We used history of physical illnesses (except chapter V: Mental and behavioral disorders) from EMR data over different time-periods to build a lookup table that contains the probability of suicide risk for each chapter of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes. The lookup table was then used to predict the probability of suicide risk for any new assessment. Based on the different lengths of history of physical illnesses, we developed six different models to predict suicide risk. We tested the performance of developed models to predict 90-day risk using historical data over differing time-periods ranging from 3 to 48 months. A total of 16,858 assessments from 7399 mental health patients with at least one risk assessment was used for the validation of the developed model. The performance was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The best predictive results were derived (AUC=0.71) using combined data across all time-periods, which significantly outperformed the clinical baseline derived from routine risk assessment (AUC=0.56). The proposed approach thus shows potential to be incorporated in the broader risk assessment processes used by clinicians. Conclusions This study provides a novel approach to exploit the history of physical illnesses extracted from EMR (ICD-10 codes without chapter V-mental and behavioral disorders) to predict suicide risk, and this model outperforms existing clinical assessments of suicide risk. PMID:27400764

  7. Allergy: A Risk Factor for Suicide?

    PubMed Central

    Postolache, Teodor T.; Komarow, Hirsh; Tonelli, Leonardo H.

    2008-01-01

    Opinion statement The rates of depression, anxiety, and sleep disturbance (suicide risk factors) are greater in patients with allergic rhinitis than in the general population. The rate of allergy is also greater in patients with depression. Preliminary data suggest that patients with a history of allergy may have an increased rate of suicide. Clinicians should actively inquire to diagnose allergy in patients with depression and depression in patients with allergy. Spring peaks of suicide are highly replicated, but their origin is poorly understood. Preliminary epidemiologic data suggest that seasonal spring peaks in aeroallergens are associated with seasonal spring peaks in suicide. Our research in Brown Norway rats demonstrates that sensitization and exposure to aeroallergens induces anxiety-like and aggressive behaviors as well as allergy-related helper T-cell type 2 (Th2) cytokine gene expression in the prefrontal cortex. Thus, it is possible that sensitization and exposure to aeroallergens, which peak in spring, may be conducive to seasonal exacerbation of suicide risk factors such as anxiety, depression, hostility/ aggression, and sleep disturbance. Connecting allergy with suicide and suicide risk factors adds to previous neurologic literature connecting allergy with migraines and seizure disorders. Our recent report of Th2 (allergy-mediating) cytokine expression in the orbito-frontal cortex of suicide victims should lead to future studies to test the hypothesis that mediators of allergic inflammation in the nasal cavities may result in Th2 cytokine expression in the brain, influencing affect and behavioral modulation. Certain medications used to treat allergy can exacerbate suicide risk factors, potentially worsening suicide risk and even triggering suicide. Systemic (but not topical) corticosteroids have been associated with manic and depressive episodes and mixed mood states. Recently, the US Food and Drug Administration started investigating the

  8. Risk factors of γ-hydroxybutyrate overdosing.

    PubMed

    Korf, Dirk J; Nabben, Ton; Benschop, Annemieke; Ribbink, Kim; van Amsterdam, Jan G C

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify in recreational drug users the factors which increase the risk of overdosing (OD) with γ-hydroxybutyrate (GHB). A purposive sample of 45 experienced GHB users was interviewed, equally divided into three groups (never OD, occasional OD, and repeat OD). The repeat OD group scored highest on many risk factors regarding GHB use, the occasional OD group scored intermediate, and the never OD group scored lowest. Participants, whether or not they had overdosed on GHB, most often perceived GHB use (e.g. using more GHB than usual, using GHB doses too closely together) as the main reason for GHB OD, and many participants who had overdosed on GHB reported that they had taken more GHB than usual at their most recent occasion of GHB OD. No significant differences in co-use of GHB with other substances were found between the three groups. Our findings indicate that using GHB in the company of groups of friends probably reduces, but does not eliminate, the risk of OD. PMID:24080792

  9. Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Onychomycosis

    PubMed Central

    Tosti, Antonella

    2015-01-01

    A number of comorbidities and risk factors complicate the successful management of onychomycosis. Underlying conditions and patient characteristics, such as tinea pedis, age, and obesity, contribute to risk, whereas comorbidities, such as diabetes and psoriasis, can increase susceptibility to the disease. There are limited data on treatment effectiveness in these patients. Here, the authors review post hoc analyses of efinaconazole topical solution, 10%, in mild-to-moderate onychomycosis and present new data in terms of age and obesity. The only post hoc analysis to report significant differences so far is gender, where female patients do much better; however, the reasons are unclear. The authors report significant differences in terms of efficacy in obese patients who do not respond as well as those with normal body mass index (P=0.05) and in patients who have their co-existing tinea pedis treated compared to those in whom co-existing tinea pedis was not treated (P=0.025). Although there is a trend to reduced efficacy in older patients and those with co-existing diabetes, differences were not significant. More research is needed in onychomycosis patients with these important risk factors and comorbidities to fully evaluate the treatment challengse and possible solutions. PMID:26705439

  10. Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score Can be Predicted from Structural Brain Images in Elderly Subjects

    PubMed Central

    Rondina, Jane Maryam; Squarzoni, Paula; Souza-Duran, Fabio Luis; Tamashiro-Duran, Jaqueline Hatsuko; Scazufca, Marcia; Menezes, Paulo Rossi; Vallada, Homero; Lotufo, Paulo A.; de Toledo Ferraz Alves, Tania Correa; Busatto Filho, Geraldo

    2014-01-01

    Recent literature has presented evidence that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) play an important role on cognitive performance in elderly individuals, both those who are asymptomatic and those who suffer from symptoms of neurodegenerative disorders. Findings from studies applying neuroimaging methods have increasingly reinforced such notion. Studies addressing the impact of CVRF on brain anatomy changes have gained increasing importance, as recent papers have reported gray matter loss predominantly in regions traditionally affected in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and vascular dementia in the presence of a high degree of cardiovascular risk. In the present paper, we explore the association between CVRF and brain changes using pattern recognition techniques applied to structural MRI and the Framingham score (a composite measure of cardiovascular risk largely used in epidemiological studies) in a sample of healthy elderly individuals. We aim to answer the following questions: is it possible to decode (i.e., to learn information regarding cardiovascular risk from structural brain images) enabling individual predictions? Among clinical measures comprising the Framingham score, are there particular risk factors that stand as more predictable from patterns of brain changes? Our main findings are threefold: (i) we verified that structural changes in spatially distributed patterns in the brain enable statistically significant prediction of Framingham scores. This result is still significant when controlling for the presence of the APOE 4 allele (an important genetic risk factor for both AD and cardiovascular disease). (ii) When considering each risk factor singly, we found different levels of correlation between real and predicted factors; however, single factors were not significantly predictable from brain images when considering APOE4 allele presence as covariate. (iii) We found important gender differences, and the possible causes of that finding are discussed. PMID

  11. Novel risk factors for acute coronary syndromes and emerging therapies.

    PubMed

    Tong, David C; Wilson, Andrew M; Layland, Jamie

    2016-10-01

    Acute coronary syndromes represent not merely disrupted atherosclerotic plaques or luminal stenoses but rather a complex clinical syndrome. The traditional conception of pathogenesis and management of ACS has been challenged by numerous recent landmark ACS trials. Current prognostication models lack clinical precision and can be challenging to the clinicians in tailoring management strategies for individual patients. In this review we summarise the emerging evidence of novel risk factors (plaque phenotype, coronary blood flow, endothelial dysfunction, microvascular dysfunction, and inflammation) in predicting future events and outcomes in ACS population. As the search for miracle cure for ischaemic heart disease continues, one is hopeful that emerging therapeutic approaches targeting these novel risk factors will improve long-term outcomes of ACS. PMID:27394979

  12. Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

  13. Predicting Parkinson disease in the community using a nonmotor risk score.

    PubMed

    Darweesh, Sirwan K L; Koudstaal, Peter J; Stricker, Bruno H; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Ikram, M Arfan

    2016-07-01

    At present, there are no validated methods to identify persons who are at increased risk for Parkinson Disease (PD) from the general population. We investigated the clinical usefulness of a recently proposed non-motor risk score for PD (the PREDICT-PD risk score) in the population-based Rotterdam Study. At baseline (1990), we constructed a weighted risk score based on 10 early nonmotor features and risk factors in 6492 persons free of parkinsonism and dementia. We followed these persons for up to 20 years (median 16.1 years) for the onset of PD until 2011. We studied the association between the PREDICT-PD risk score and incident PD using competing risk regression models with adjustment for age and sex. In addition, we assessed whether the PREDICT-PD risk score improved discrimination (C-statistics) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement) of incident PD beyond age and sex. During follow-up, 110 persons were diagnosed with incident PD. The PREDICT-PD risk score was associated with incident PD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.30; 95 % confidence interval [1.06; 1.59]) and yielded a small, non-significant improvement in overall discrimination (ΔC-statistic = 0.018[-0.005; 0.041]) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement = 0.172[-0.017; 0.360]) of incident PD. In conclusion, the PREDICT-PD risk score only slightly improves long-term prediction of PD in the community. PMID:26898908

  14. Epigenetic Biomarkers of Preterm Birth and Its Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Knight, Anna K.; Smith, Alicia K.

    2016-01-01

    A biomarker is a biological measure predictive of a normal or pathogenic process or response. Biomarkers are often useful for making clinical decisions and determining treatment course. One area where such biomarkers would be particularly useful is in identifying women at risk for preterm delivery and related pregnancy complications. Neonates born preterm have significant morbidity and mortality, both in the perinatal period and throughout the life course, and identifying women at risk of delivering preterm may allow for targeted interventions to prevent or delay preterm birth (PTB). In addition to identifying those at increased risk for preterm birth, biomarkers may be able to distinguish neonates at particular risk for future complications due to modifiable environmental factors, such as maternal smoking or alcohol use during pregnancy. Currently, there are no such biomarkers available, though candidate gene and epigenome-wide association studies have identified DNA methylation differences associated with PTB, its risk factors and its long-term outcomes. Further biomarker development is crucial to reducing the health burden associated with adverse intrauterine conditions and preterm birth, and the results of recent DNA methylation studies may advance that goal. PMID:27089367

  15. Epigenetic Biomarkers of Preterm Birth and Its Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Knight, Anna K; Smith, Alicia K

    2016-01-01

    A biomarker is a biological measure predictive of a normal or pathogenic process or response. Biomarkers are often useful for making clinical decisions and determining treatment course. One area where such biomarkers would be particularly useful is in identifying women at risk for preterm delivery and related pregnancy complications. Neonates born preterm have significant morbidity and mortality, both in the perinatal period and throughout the life course, and identifying women at risk of delivering preterm may allow for targeted interventions to prevent or delay preterm birth (PTB). In addition to identifying those at increased risk for preterm birth, biomarkers may be able to distinguish neonates at particular risk for future complications due to modifiable environmental factors, such as maternal smoking or alcohol use during pregnancy. Currently, there are no such biomarkers available, though candidate gene and epigenome-wide association studies have identified DNA methylation differences associated with PTB, its risk factors and its long-term outcomes. Further biomarker development is crucial to reducing the health burden associated with adverse intrauterine conditions and preterm birth, and the results of recent DNA methylation studies may advance that goal. PMID:27089367

  16. Relation of anthropometric variables to coronary artery disease risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Patil, Virendra C.; Parale, G. P.; Kulkarni, P. M.; Patil, Harsha V.

    2011-01-01

    Background and Objectives: Anthropometric variables and their relation to conventional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors in railway employees have been inadequately studied in India. This cross-sectional survey was carried out in the Solapur division of the Central railway in the year 2004, to assess the anthropometric variables in railway employees and their relation to conventional CAD risk factors. Materials and Methods: A total of 995 railway employees, with 872 males and 123 females participated in this cross-sectional study. All subjects underwent anthropometric measurements, fasting lipid profile, and blood sugar level. Various anthropometric indices were calculated for body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and abdominal volume index (AVI). Statistical analysis was done by EPI Info 6 statistical software. Results: Compared to all other obesity indices, WHtR was most prevalent in both genders. High WHtR was present in 699 (80.16%) males and 103 (83.73%) females. Age ≥45 years, high systolic BP, high diastolic BP, low HDL, high triglyceride, and diabetes mellitus were positively correlated with high BMI, high WC, high WHR, high WHtR, and high AVI. High BMI, high WC, high WHR, high WHtR, and high AVI were negatively associated with physical inactivity. Conclusions: Over all, anthropometric variables in both genders were significantly deranged in subjects with coronary risk factors. Compared to all other anthropometric variables, WHtR was statistically significantly associated with a majority of coronary artery risk factors. Hence we recommend inclusion of WHtR as a parameter of obesity to predict coronary artery disease risk factor along with WC, WHR, and BMI in epidemiologic studies. PMID:21584164

  17. Intraoperative blood loss in orthotopic liver transplantation: The predictive factors

    PubMed Central

    Pandey, Chandra Kant; Singh, Anshuman; Kajal, Kamal; Dhankhar, Mandeep; Tandon, Manish; Pandey, Vijay Kant; Karna, Sunaina Tejpal

    2015-01-01

    Liver transplantation has been associated with massive blood loss and considerable transfusion requirements. Bleeding in orthotopic liver transplantation is multifactorial. Technical difficulties inherent to this complex surgical procedure and pre operative derangements of the primary and secondary coagulation system are thought to be the principal causes of perioperative hemorrhage. Intraoperative practices such as massive fluid resuscitation and resulting hypothermia and hypocalcemia secondary to citrate toxicity further aggravate the preexisting coagulopathy and worsen the perioperative bleeding. Excessive blood loss and transfusion during orthotopic liver transplant are correlated with diminished graft survival and increased septic episodes and prolonged ICU stay. With improvements in surgical skills, anesthetic technique, graft preservation, use of intraoperative cell savers and overall perioperative management, orthotopic liver transplant is now associated with decreased intra operative blood losses. The purpose of this review is to discuss the risk factors predictive of increased intra operative bleeding in patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplant. PMID:26131330

  18. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  19. Internet Abuse Risk Factors among Spanish Adolescents.

    PubMed

    Carballo, José L; Marín-Vila, María; Espada, José P; Orgilés, Mireia; Piqueras, José A

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence has revealed various factors that contribute to the development and maintenance of Internet abuse. The aim of this paper was to analyze, on a sample of Spanish adolescents, the relationship between Internet abuse and: (1) Personal and interpersonal risk factors, including social skills in both virtual and real-life contexts; (2) Drug use. A total of 814 high school students aged between 13 and 17 participated in this study, and were divided into two groups: Internet Abusers (IA = 173) and Non-Internet Abusers (NIA = 641). Questionnaires were used to analyze Internet and drug use/abuse, as well as social skills, in virtual and real contexts. Various interpersonal risk factors (family and group of friends) were also assessed. IA showed a more severe pattern of Internet and drug use, as well as poorer social skills in both contexts. Moreover, their groups of friends appeared more likely to become involved in risky situations related to Internet and drug abuse. Both IA and NIA showed more adaptive social skills in the virtual context than in the real one. There is a need for further research to build on these findings, with a view to designing specific preventive programs that promote responsible Internet use. PMID:26611139

  20. Preventing delirium in dementia: Managing risk factors.

    PubMed

    Ford, Andrew H

    2016-10-01

    Delirium is a common, disabling medical condition that is associated with numerous adverse outcomes. A number of inter-related factors, including pre-existing cognitive impairment, usually contribute to the development of delirium in a particular susceptible individual. Non-pharmacological approaches to prevention typically target multiple risk factors in a systematic manner (multicomponent interventions). There is generally good evidence that multicomponent interventions reduce the incidence of delirium in hospital populations but there are limited data in people with dementia and those living in the community. It is likely that there is a differential effect of specific interventions in those with cognitive impairment (e.g. people with dementia may respond better to simpler, more pragmatic interventions rather than complex procedures) but this cannot be determined from the existing data. Targeted interventions focussed on hydration, medication rationalization and sleep promotion may also be effective in reducing the incidence of delirium, as well as the active involvement of family members in the care of the elderly hospitalized patient. Hospitalization itself is a potential risk factor for delirium and promising data are emerging of the benefits of home-based care as an alternative to hospitalization but this is restricted to specific sub-populations of patients and is reliant on these services being available. PMID:27621236

  1. Genomic medicine and risk prediction across the disease spectrum.

    PubMed

    Kotze, Maritha J; Lückhoff, Hilmar K; Peeters, Armand V; Baatjes, Karin; Schoeman, Mardelle; van der Merwe, Lize; Grant, Kathleen A; Fisher, Leslie R; van der Merwe, Nicole; Pretorius, Jacobus; van Velden, David P; Myburgh, Ettienne J; Pienaar, Fredrieka M; van Rensburg, Susan J; Yako, Yandiswa Y; September, Alison V; Moremi, Kelebogile E; Cronje, Frans J; Tiffin, Nicki; Bouwens, Christianne S H; Bezuidenhout, Juanita; Apffelstaedt, Justus P; Hough, F Stephen; Erasmus, Rajiv T; Schneider, Johann W

    2015-01-01

    Genomic medicine is based on the knowledge that virtually every medical condition, disease susceptibility or response to treatment is caused, regulated or influenced by genes. Genetic testing may therefore add value across the disease spectrum, ranging from single-gene disorders with a Mendelian inheritance pattern to complex multi-factorial diseases. The critical factors for genomic risk prediction are to determine: (1) where the genomic footprint of a particular susceptibility or dysfunction resides within this continuum, and (2) to what extent the genetic determinants are modified by environmental exposures. Regarding the small subset of highly penetrant monogenic disorders, a positive family history and early disease onset are mostly sufficient to determine the appropriateness of genetic testing in the index case and to inform pre-symptomatic diagnosis in at-risk family members. In more prevalent polygenic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), the use of appropriate eligibility criteria is required to ensure a balance between benefit and risk. An additional screening step may therefore be necessary to identify individuals most likely to benefit from genetic testing. This need provided the stimulus for the development of a pathology-supported genetic testing (PSGT) service as a new model for the translational implementation of genomic medicine in clinical practice. PSGT is linked to the establishment of a research database proven to be an invaluable resource for the validation of novel and previously described gene-disease associations replicated in the South African population for a broad range of NCDs associated with increased cardio-metabolic risk. The clinical importance of inquiry concerning family history in determining eligibility for personalized genotyping was supported beyond its current limited role in diagnosing or screening for monogenic subtypes of NCDs. With the recent introduction of advanced microarray-based breast cancer subtyping, genetic testing

  2. Risk Factors for Relapse of Human Brucellosis

    PubMed Central

    Hasanjani Roushan, Mohammad Reza; Moulana, Zahra; Afshar, Zeinab Mohseni; Ebrahimpour, Soheil

    2016-01-01

    Background & Propose: Brucellosis is serious disease around the world, especially in underdeveloped countries. Relapse is major problem in therapy of brucellosis. This study aimed to evaluate risk factors of relapse after treatment in patients. Methods: It is a descriptive-analytic study from 1990 to 2014, in Ayatolla Rohani hospital in Babol, Iran. We studied 980 patients with brucellosis. The studied community included patients infected with brucellosis and the required information was gathered based on their hospital files. The base for recognizing Malta fever were clinical symptoms and Para-clinical sign congruent with infection like as, titer SAT>1:320 and 2-ME>1:160. Patients with relapse and patients without relapse were placed separately in two groups. The data were statistically compared with Spss 16, by Chi-square and Cox–regression tests. Results: Based on this study, treatment regimen is a preventive factor (P=0.000). Moreover, Based on some statistical methods, regimens no. 3 and 4 were introduce preventive factors (P=0.001) and (P=0.004). It should also be noted that findings the same statistical model, factors like gender, age, residence, professional contacts, complications and delay in treatment were also analyzed but none of them are considered as preventive factors. Conclusion: Based our finding, we suggest aminoglycosides (gentamicin or streptomycin with doxycycline) are associated with lower rate of relapse in brucellosis.

  3. Cholera risk factors, Papua New Guinea, 2010

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Cholera is newly emergent in Papua New Guinea but may soon become endemic. Identifying the risk factors for cholera provides evidence for targeted prevention and control measures. Methods We conducted a hospital-based case–control study to identify cholera risk factors. Using stool culture as the standard, we evaluated a cholera point of care test in the field. Results 176 participants were recruited: 54 cases and 122 controls. Independent risk factors for cholera were: being over 20 years of age (aOR 2.5; 95%CI 1.1, 5.4), defecating in the open air (or river) (aOR 4.5; 95% CI 1.4, 14.4) and knowing someone who travelled to a cholera affected area (aOR 4.1; 95%CI 1.6, 10.7); while the availability of soap for handwashing at home was protective (aOR 0.41; 95%CI 0.19, 0.87). Those reporting access to a piped water distribution system in the home were twice as likely to report the availability of soap for handwashing. The sensitivity and specificity of the rapid test were 72% (95% CI 47–90) and 71% (95%CI 44–90%). Conclusions Improving population access to the piped water distribution system and sanitation will likely reduce transmission by enabling enhanced hygiene and limiting the contamination of water sources. The One step V. cholerae O1/O139 Antigen Test is of limited utility for clinical decision making in a hospital setting with access to traditional laboratory methods. Settlement dwellers and mobile populations of all age groups should be targeted for interventions in Papua New Guinea. PMID:23126504

  4. Development of a new outcome prediction model for Chinese patients with penile squamous cell carcinoma based on preoperative serum C-reactive protein, body mass index, and standard pathological risk factors: the TNCB score group system

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jing; Mi, Qi-Wu; Chen, Xiao-Feng; Zhao, Qi; Li, Yong-Hong; Chen, Jie-Ping; Deng, Chuang-Zhong; Ye, Yun-Lin; Zhong, Ming-Zhu; Liu, Zhuo-Wei; Qin, Zi-Ke; Lin, Xiang-Tian; Liang, Wei-Cong; Han, Hui; Zhou, Fang-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To determine the predictive value and feasibility of the new outcome prediction model for Chinese patients with penile squamous cell carcinoma. Results The 3-year disease-specific survival (DSS) was 92.3% in patients with < 8.70 mg/L CRP and 54.9% in those with elevated CRP (P < 0.001). The 3-year DSS was 86.5% in patients with a BMI < 22.6 Kg/m2 and 69.9% in those with a higher BMI (P = 0.025). In a multivariate analysis, pathological T stage (P < 0.001), pathological N stage (P = 0.002), BMI (P = 0.002), and CRP (P = 0.004) were independent predictors of DSS. A new scoring model was developed, consisting of BMI, CRP, and tumor T and N classification. In our study, we found that the addition of the above-mentioned parameters significantly increased the predictive accuracy of the system of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) anatomic stage group. The accuracy of the new prediction category was verified. Methods A total of 172 Chinese patients with penile squamous cell cancer were analyzed retrospectively between November 2005 and November 2014. Statistical data analysis was conducted using the nonparametric method. Survival analysis was performed with the log-rank test and the Cox proportional hazard model. Based on regression estimates of significant parameters in multivariate analysis, a new BMI-, CRP- and pathologic factors-based scoring model was developed to predict disease-specific outcomes. The predictive accuracy of the model was evaluated using the internal and external validation. Conclusion The present study demonstrated that the TNCB score group system maybe a precise and easy to use tool for predicting outcomes in Chinese penile squamous cell carcinoma patients. PMID:26980738

  5. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806–0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768–0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738–0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692–0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese

  6. Cardiometabolic risk factors and atrial fibrillation.

    PubMed

    Menezes, Arthur R; Lavie, Carl J; Dinicolantonio, James J; O'Keefe, James; Morin, Daniel P; Khatib, Sammy; Abi-Samra, Freddy M; Messerli, Franz H; Milani, Richard V

    2013-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia worldwide; it is a significant risk factor for stroke and embolization, and has an impact on cardiac function. Despite its impact on morbidity and mortality, our understanding of the etiology and pathophysiology of this disease process is still incomplete. Over the past several decades, there has been evidence to suggest that AF has a significant correlation with metabolic syndrome (MetS). Furthermore, AF appears to be more closely related to specific components of MetS compared with others. This article provides an overview of the various components of MetS and their impact on AF. PMID:24448257

  7. Childhood incontinence: risk factors and impact.

    PubMed

    Joinson, Carol

    Continence problems in children can persist into later childhood and have a serious effect on quality of life. Research into its causes and impact is scarce, and useful resources are limited. A Medical Research Council grant is funding a project at the University of Bristol, which aims to improve understanding of the risk factors and outcomes of continence problems in children and adolescents. This article outlines the initial findings, which could help in the production of resources for parents, children and young people. PMID:27386707

  8. Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Risk Factors, Diagnosis and Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Janevska, Dafina; Chaloska-Ivanova, Viktorija; Janevski, Vlado

    2015-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most often primary cancer of the liver and is one if the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. The incidence of HCC has geographic distribution with the highest levels in countries with developing economies. Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma have poor prognosis despite the achievements in surgery techniques and other therapeutic procedures and it is a reason why continuous attention should be paid to this issue. This article provides an overview of this disease based on an extensive review of relevant literature. The article summarizes the current risk factors, diagnosis, staging and the management of HCC. PMID:27275318

  9. [Patient's Risk Factors for Perioperative Aspiration Pneumonia].

    PubMed

    Ishikawa, Teruhiko; Isono, Shiroh

    2016-01-01

    This article reviews patient's own risk factors for perioperative aspiration pneumonia. Maintaining the function of the lower esophageal sphincter (LES), the airway protective reflex, and the oral hygiene are the most important to prevent the pneumonia. The LES is adversely affected by excessive stomach distention, some medication given in perioperative periods, and habitual smoking, as well as pathological status such as esophageal hiatus hernia and achalasia. Postapoplectic patients may have insufficient airway protective reflex including swallowing and laryngeal reflex. It is emphasized that the perioperative oral care is increasing in its importance for the prevention of aspiration pneumonia. PMID:27004381

  10. Risk Factors for Postural Tachycardia Syndrome in Children and Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xueying; Ochs, Todd; Zhao, Juan; Zhang, Xi; Yang, Jinyan; Liu, Ping; Xiong, Zhenyu; Gai, Yong; Tang, Chaoshu; Du, Junbao; Jin, Hongfang

    2014-01-01

    Background Postural tachycardia syndrome (POTS) is prevalent in children and adolescents and has a great impact on health. But its risk factors have not been fully understood. This study aimed to explore possible risk factors for children and adolescents with POTS. Methods and Findings 600 children and adolescents (test group) aged 7–18 (11.9±3.0) years old, 259 males and 341 females, were recruited for identifying its risk factors. Another 197 subjects aged from 7 to 18 (11.3±2.3) years old were enrolled in the validation group. Heart rate (HR) and blood pressure (BP) were monitored during upright test. Risk factors were analyzed and sensitivity and specificity for predicting POTS were tested via receiver operating characteristic curve. Among 600 subjects, 41 were confirmed with POTS patients (6.8%) based on clinical manifestation and upright test. The results showed a significant difference in daily water intake, the daily sleeping hours, supine HR, HR increment and maximum HR during upright test between POTS and the unaffected children (P<0.05). Likelihood of POTS would increase by 1.583 times if supine HR was increased by 10 beats/min (95%CI 1.184 to 2.116, P<0.01), by 3.877 times if a child's water intake was less than 800 ml/day (95%CI 1.937 to 7.760, P<0.001), or by 5.905 times (95%CI 2.972 to 11.733, P<0.001) if sleeping hours were less than 8 hours/day. Supine HR, daily water intake and sleeping hours showed the capability of predicting POTS in children and adolescents with an AUC of 83.9% (95% CI: 78.6%–89.1%), sensitivity of 80.5% and specificity of 75%. Furthermore, in validation group, predictive sensitivity and specificity were 73.3% and 72.5%. Conclusion Faster supine HR, less water intake and shorter sleeping hours were identified as risk factors for POTS. PMID:25474569

  11. Identification and Progression of Heart Disease Risk Factors in Diabetic Patients from Longitudinal Electronic Health Records

    PubMed Central

    Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Dai, Hong-Jie; Hsu, Chien-Yeh

    2015-01-01

    Heart disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Therefore, assessing the risk of its occurrence is a crucial step in predicting serious cardiac events. Identifying heart disease risk factors and tracking their progression is a preliminary step in heart disease risk assessment. A large number of studies have reported the use of risk factor data collected prospectively. Electronic health record systems are a great resource of the required risk factor data. Unfortunately, most of the valuable information on risk factor data is buried in the form of unstructured clinical notes in electronic health records. In this study, we present an information extraction system to extract related information on heart disease risk factors from unstructured clinical notes using a hybrid approach. The hybrid approach employs both machine learning and rule-based clinical text mining techniques. The developed system achieved an overall microaveraged F-score of 0.8302. PMID:26380290

  12. Identification and Progression of Heart Disease Risk Factors in Diabetic Patients from Longitudinal Electronic Health Records.

    PubMed

    Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Dai, Hong-Jie; Hsu, Chien-Yeh

    2015-01-01

    Heart disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Therefore, assessing the risk of its occurrence is a crucial step in predicting serious cardiac events. Identifying heart disease risk factors and tracking their progression is a preliminary step in heart disease risk assessment. A large number of studies have reported the use of risk factor data collected prospectively. Electronic health record systems are a great resource of the required risk factor data. Unfortunately, most of the valuable information on risk factor data is buried in the form of unstructured clinical notes in electronic health records. In this study, we present an information extraction system to extract related information on heart disease risk factors from unstructured clinical notes using a hybrid approach. The hybrid approach employs both machine learning and rule-based clinical text mining techniques. The developed system achieved an overall microaveraged F-score of 0.8302. PMID:26380290

  13. Adult sensory capacities as a function of birth risk factors.

    PubMed

    Harland, R E; Coren, S

    1996-06-01

    This study examined the relationship between birth risk factors and sensory capacity in 1245 young adults (mean age = 19.9 years). Nine birth risk factors were included (long labour, breech birth, breathing difficulty, instrument delivery, Caesarian delivery, multiple birth, premature birth, low birth weight, and high-risk birth order) and six sensory capacities were tested (Snellen visual acuity, stereopsis, color discrimination, pure-tone hearing, speech recognition, and sound localization). Mild birth stressors were strongly predictive of reduced visual acuity and stereoscopic discrimination, and mildly predictive for the other sensory measures. The fact that vision was more vulnerable to the effects of birth stress than audition may be due to the slower maturation of the visual system. Of the birth stressors examined, twinning was found to have the largest effect on sensory function, possibly because it often occurs conjointly with other birth stressors such as low birth weight, breech presentation, and breathing difficulty and may involve the use of birthing instruments such as forceps. PMID:8877623

  14. Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

    2011-01-01

    Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science. PMID:20943690

  15. Prediction of near-term breast cancer risk using a Bayesian belief network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Bin; Ramalingam, Pandiyarajan; Hariharan, Harishwaran; Leader, Joseph K.; Gur, David

    2013-03-01

    Accurately predicting near-term breast cancer risk is an important prerequisite for establishing an optimal personalized breast cancer screening paradigm. In previous studies, we investigated and tested the feasibility of developing a unique near-term breast cancer risk prediction model based on a new risk factor associated with bilateral mammographic density asymmetry between the left and right breasts of a woman using a single feature. In this study we developed a multi-feature based Bayesian belief network (BBN) that combines bilateral mammographic density asymmetry with three other popular risk factors, namely (1) age, (2) family history, and (3) average breast density, to further increase the discriminatory power of our cancer risk model. A dataset involving "prior" negative mammography examinations of 348 women was used in the study. Among these women, 174 had breast cancer detected and verified in the next sequential screening examinations, and 174 remained negative (cancer-free). A BBN was applied to predict the risk of each woman having cancer detected six to 18 months later following the negative screening mammography. The prediction results were compared with those using single features. The prediction accuracy was significantly increased when using the BBN. The area under the ROC curve increased from an AUC=0.70 to 0.84 (p<0.01), while the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) also increased from a PPV=0.61 to 0.78 and an NPV=0.65 to 0.75, respectively. This study demonstrates that a multi-feature based BBN can more accurately predict the near-term breast cancer risk than with a single feature.

  16. What Are the Risk Factors for Acute Lymphocytic Leukemia?

    MedlinePlus

    ... lymphocytic leukemia? What are the risk factors for acute lymphocytic leukemia? A risk factor is something that affects your ... this is unknown. Having an identical twin with ALL Someone who has an identical twin who develops ...

  17. What Are the Risk Factors for Bone Cancer?

    MedlinePlus

    ... bone cancer? What are the risk factors for bone cancer? A risk factor is anything that affects your ... are caused by defects (mutations) in certain genes. Osteosarcomas Children with certain rare inherited syndromes have an ...

  18. Assessing Risk Prediction Models Using Individual Participant Data From Multiple Studies

    PubMed Central

    Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R.; Thompson, Simon G.; Wood, Angela M.; Tipping, Robert W.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Couper, David J.; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Coresh, Josef; Goya Wannamethee, S.; Morris, Richard W.; Kiechl, Stefan; Willeit, Johann; Willeit, Peter; Schett, Georg; Ebrahim, Shah; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Yarnell, John W.; Gallacher, John; Cushman, Mary; Psaty, Bruce M.; Tracy, Russ; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Price, Jackie F.; Lee, Amanda J.; McLachlan, Stela; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Brenner, Hermann; Schöttker, Ben; Müller, Heiko; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Wennberg, Patrik; Salomaa, Veikko; Harald, Kennet; Jousilahti, Pekka; Vartiainen, Erkki; Woodward, Mark; D'Agostino, Ralph B.; Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Jørgensen, Torben; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Arima, Hisatomi; Doi, Yasufumi; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Nijpels, Giel; Stehouwer, Coen D. A.; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T.; Meade, Tom W.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Cushman, Mary; Folsom, Aaron R.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Shea, Steven; Döring, Angela; Kuller, Lewis H.; Grandits, Greg; Gillum, Richard F.; Mussolino, Michael; Rimm, Eric B.; Hankinson, Sue E.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Pai, Jennifer K.; Kirkland, Susan; Shaffer, Jonathan A.; Shimbo, Daichi; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Hillege, Hans L.; Amouyel, Philippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Evans, Alun; Ferrières, Jean; Sattar, Naveed; Westendorp, Rudi G.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Cantin, Bernard; Lamarche, Benoît; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Wingard, Deborah L.; Bettencourt, Richele; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Aspelund, Thor; Sigurdsson, Gunnar; Thorsson, Bolli; Kavousi, Maryam; Witteman, Jacqueline C.; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H.; Howard, Barbara V.; Zhang, Ying; Best, Lyle; Umans, Jason G.; Onat, Altan; Sundström, Johan; Michael Gaziano, J.; Stampfer, Meir; Ridker, Paul M.; Michael Gaziano, J.; Ridker, Paul M.; Marmot, Michael; Clarke, Robert; Collins, Rory; Fletcher, Astrid; Brunner, Eric; Shipley, Martin; Kivimäki, Mika; Ridker, Paul M.; Buring, Julie; Cook, Nancy; Ford, Ian; Shepherd, James; Cobbe, Stuart M.; Robertson, Michele; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; Alexander, Myriam; Butterworth, Adam S.; Angelantonio, Emanuele Di; Gao, Pei; Haycock, Philip; Kaptoge, Stephen; Pennells, Lisa; Thompson, Simon G.; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; White, Ian R.; Wood, Angela M.; Wormser, David; Danesh, John

    2014-01-01

    Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous. PMID:24366051

  19. Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies.

    PubMed

    Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R; Thompson, Simon G; Wood, Angela M

    2014-03-01

    Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous. PMID:24366051

  20. The impact of youth, family, peer and neighborhood risk factors on developmental trajectories of risk involvement from early through middle adolescence.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bo; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Marshall, Sharon; Chen, Xinguang; Stanton, Bonita

    2014-04-01

    Few studies have analyzed the development course beginning in pre-/early adolescence of overall engagement in health-risk behaviors and associated social risk factors that place individuals in different health-risk trajectories through mid-adolescence. The current longitudinal study identified 1276 adolescents in grade six and followed them for three years to investigate their developmental trajectories of risk behaviors and to examine the association of personal and social risk factors with each trajectory. Group-based trajectory modeling was applied to identify distinctive trajectory patterns of risk behaviors. Multivariate multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the effects of the personal and social risk factors on adolescents' trajectories. Three gender-specific behavioral trajectories were identified for males (55.3% low-risk, 37.6% moderate-risk, increasing, and 7.1% high-risk, increasing) and females (41.4% no-risk, 53.4% low-risk, increasing and 5.2% moderate to high-risk, increasing). Sensation-seeking, family, peer, and neighborhood factors at baseline predicted following the moderate-risk, increasing trajectory and the high-risk, increasing trajectory in males; these risk factors predicted following the moderate to high-risk, increasing trajectory in females. The presence of all three social risk factors (high-risk neighborhood, high-risk peers and low parental monitoring) had a dramatic impact on increased probability of being in a high-risk trajectory group. These findings highlight the developmental significance of early personal and social risk factors on subsequent risk behaviors in early to middle adolescence. Future adolescent health behavior promotion interventions might consider offering additional prevention resources to pre- and early adolescent youth who are exposed to multiple contextual risk factors (even in the absence of risk behaviors) or youth who are early-starters of delinquency and substance use behaviors

  1. [Early pregnancy risk: development and validation of a predictive instrument].

    PubMed

    Burrows, R; Rosales, M E; Díaz, M; Muzzo, S

    1994-06-01

    An early pregnancy risk scale, with scores ranging from 11 to 66 points from lower to higher risk, was constructed using variables associated with teenager's pregnancy. This scale was applied to 3000 female teenagers, coming from Metropolitan Santiago public schools. The sample was divided in three risk groups: group A (high risk) with scores equal or over 35 points, group B (low risk) with scores equal or below 20 points and group B (intermediate risk) with scores between 20.1 and 34.9 points. These girls were followed during 2 years. During this period, 84 girls became pregnant, 24 of 184 (13%) in group A, 60 of 2332 (2.6%) in group C and none of 307 in group B. There were 104 school desertions in group A and 37 in group B. To study associations and analyze risk, the sample was divided in two risk groups: high, with scores over 27 and low, with scores below 27. There was a high association between pregnancy risk score and the occurrence of pregnancy (RR 5.25 p < 0.0001) and school desertion (RR 3.32 p < 0.0001). Pregnancy was predicted with a 78% sensitivity and 55.6% specificity. School desertion was predicted with a 74% sensitivity and 56% specificity. The importance variable weighing using multiple regression models, to improve the predictor's sensitivity and specificity, is discussed. PMID:7732221

  2. Reformulating Suicide Risk Formulation: From Prediction to Prevention.

    PubMed

    Pisani, Anthony R; Murrie, Daniel C; Silverman, Morton M

    2016-08-01

    Psychiatrists-in-training typically learn that assessments of suicide risk should culminate in a probability judgment expressed as "low," "moderate," or "high." This way of formulating risk has predominated in psychiatric education and practice, despite little evidence for its validity, reliability, or utility. We present a model for teaching and communicating suicide risk assessments without categorical predictions. Instead, we propose risk formulations which synthesize data into four distinct judgments to directly inform intervention plans: (1) risk status (the patient's risk relative to a specified subpopulation), (2) risk state (the patient's risk compared to baseline or other specified time points), (3) available resources from which the patient can draw in crisis, and (4) foreseeable changes that may exacerbate risk. An example case illustrates the conceptual shift from a predictive to a preventive formulation, and we outline steps taken to implement the model in an academic psychiatry setting. Our goal is to inform educational leaders, as well as individual educators, who can together cast a prevention-oriented vision in their academic programs. PMID:26667005

  3. Automated Risk Prediction for Esophageal Optical Endomicroscopic Images

    PubMed Central

    Kothari, Sonal; Wu, Hang; Tong, Li; Woods, Kevin E.; Wang, May D.

    2016-01-01

    Biomedical in vivo imaging has been playing an essential role in diagnoses and treatment in modern medicine. However, compared with the fast development of medical imaging systems, the medical imaging informatics, especially automated prediction, has not been fully explored. In our paper, we compared different feature extraction and classification methods for prediction pipeline to analyze in vivo endomicroscopic images, obtained from patients who are at risks for the development of gastric disease, esophageal adenocarcionoma. Extensive experiment results show that the selected feature representation and prediction algorithms achieved high accuracy in both binary and multi-class prediction tasks. PMID:27532065

  4. Risk factors for early infant mortality in Sarlahi district, Nepal.

    PubMed Central

    Katz, Joanne; West, Keith P.; Khatry, Subarna K.; Christian, Parul; LeClerq, Steven C.; Pradhan, Elizabeth Kimbrough; Shrestha, Sharada Ram

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Early infant mortality has not declined as rapidly as child mortality in many countries. Identification of risk factors for early infant mortality may help inform the design of intervention strategies. METHODS: Over the period 1994-97, 15,469 live-born, singleton infants in rural Nepal were followed to 24 weeks of age to identify risk factors for mortality within 0-7 days, 8-28 days, and 4-24 weeks after the birth. FINDINGS: In multivariate models, maternal and paternal education reduced mortality between 4 and 24 weeks only: odds ratios (OR) 0.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12-0.66) and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.44-0.88), respectively. Miscarriage in the previous pregnancy predicted mortality in the first week of life (OR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.37-2.87), whereas prior child deaths increased the risk of post-neonatal death (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.24-2.75). A larger maternal mid-upper arm circumference reduced the risk of infant death during the first week of life (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.81-0.95). Infants of women who did not receive any tetanus vaccinations during pregnancy or who had severe illness during the third trimester were more likely to die in the neonatal period. Maternal mortality was strongly associated with infant mortality (OR = 6.43, 95% CI = 2.35-17.56 at 0-7 days; OR = 11.73, 95% CI = 3.82-36.00 at 8-28 days; and OR = 51.68, 95% CI = 20.26-131.80 at 4-24 weeks). CONCLUSION: Risk factors for early infant mortality varied with the age of the infant. Factors amenable to intervention included efforts aimed at maternal morbidity and mortality and increased arm circumference during pregnancy. PMID:14758431

  5. Utility functions predict variance and skewness risk preferences in monkeys

    PubMed Central

    Genest, Wilfried; Stauffer, William R.; Schultz, Wolfram

    2016-01-01

    Utility is the fundamental variable thought to underlie economic choices. In particular, utility functions are believed to reflect preferences toward risk, a key decision variable in many real-life situations. To assess the validity of utility representations, it is therefore important to examine risk preferences. In turn, this approach requires formal definitions of risk. A standard approach is to focus on the variance of reward distributions (variance-risk). In this study, we also examined a form of risk related to the skewness of reward distributions (skewness-risk). Thus, we tested the extent to which empirically derived utility functions predicted preferences for variance-risk and skewness-risk in macaques. The expected utilities calculated for various symmetrical and skewed gambles served to define formally the direction of stochastic dominance between gambles. In direct choices, the animals’ preferences followed both second-order (variance) and third-order (skewness) stochastic dominance. Specifically, for gambles with different variance but identical expected values (EVs), the monkeys preferred high-variance gambles at low EVs and low-variance gambles at high EVs; in gambles with different skewness but identical EVs and variances, the animals preferred positively over symmetrical and negatively skewed gambles in a strongly transitive fashion. Thus, the utility functions predicted the animals’ preferences for variance-risk and skewness-risk. Using these well-defined forms of risk, this study shows that monkeys’ choices conform to the internal reward valuations suggested by their utility functions. This result implies a representation of utility in monkeys that accounts for both variance-risk and skewness-risk preferences. PMID:27402743

  6. Epigenetic Risk Factors in PTSD and Depression

    PubMed Central

    Raabe, Florian Joachim; Spengler, Dietmar

    2013-01-01

    Epidemiological and clinical studies have shown that children exposed to adverse experiences are at increased risk for the development of depression, anxiety disorders, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). A history of child abuse and maltreatment increases the likelihood of being subsequently exposed to traumatic events or of developing PTSD as an adult. The brain is highly plastic during early life and encodes acquired information into lasting memories that normally subserve adaptation. Translational studies in rodents showed that enduring sensitization of neuronal and neuroendocrine circuits in response to early life adversity are likely risk factors of life time vulnerability to stress. Hereby, the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis integrates cognitive, behavioral, and emotional responses to early-life stress and can be epigenetically programed during sensitive windows of development. Epigenetic mechanisms, comprising reciprocal regulation of chromatin structure and DNA methylation, are important to establish and maintain sustained, yet potentially reversible, changes in gene transcription. The relevance of these findings for the development of PTSD requires further studies in humans where experience-dependent epigenetic programing can additionally depend on genetic variation in the underlying substrates which may protect from or advance disease development. Overall, identification of early-life stress-associated epigenetic risk markers informing on previous stress history can help to advance early diagnosis, personalized prevention, and timely therapeutic interventions, thus reducing long-term social and health costs. PMID:23966957

  7. Stroke Prevention: Managing Modifiable Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Di Legge, Silvia; Koch, Giacomo; Diomedi, Marina; Stanzione, Paolo; Sallustio, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    Prevention plays a crucial role in counteracting morbidity and mortality related to ischemic stroke. It has been estimated that 50% of stroke are preventable through control of modifiable risk factors and lifestyle changes. Antihypertensive treatment is recommended for both prevention of recurrent stroke and other vascular events. The use of antiplatelets and statins has been shown to reduce the risk of recurrent stroke and other vascular events. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) are indicated in stroke prevention because they also promote vascular health. Effective secondary-prevention strategies for selected patients include carotid revascularization for high-grade carotid stenosis and vitamin K antagonist treatment for atrial fibrillation. The results of recent clinical trials investigating new anticoagulants (factor Xa inhibitors and direct thrombin inhibitors) clearly indicate alternative strategies in stroke prevention for patients with atrial fibrillation. This paper describes the current landscape and developments in stroke prevention with special reference to medical treatment in secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. PMID:23213626

  8. Occupational risk factors for Wilms' tumor

    SciTech Connect

    Bunin, G.; Kramer, S.; Nass, C.; Meadows, A.

    1986-09-01

    A matched case-control study of Wilms' tumor investigated parental occupational risk factors. Cases diagnosed in 1970-1983 were identified through a population-based tumor registry and hospital registries in the Greater Philadelphia area. Controls were selected by random digit dialing and were matched to cases on race, birth date (+/- 3 years), and the area code and exchange of the case's telephone number at diagnosis. Parents of 100 matched pairs were interviewed by telephone. Parents of patients and controls were generally similar in demographic characteristics, except that mothers differed in religion. Published schemes were used to group jobs into clusters of similar exposures and to determine exposures from industry and job title. Analyses were done for preconception, pregnancy, and postnatal time periods. More case than control fathers had jobs in a cluster that includes machinists and welders (odds ratios (ORs) = 4.0-5.7, p less than or equal to 0.04). Paternal exposures to lead, silver, tin, and iron (some exposures of this cluster) were associated with Wilms' tumor in some analyses, with moderate odds ratios (ORs = 1.5-3.4). In general, the highest odds ratios were found for the preconception period among the genetic (prezygotic) cases. No maternal job clusters or exposures gave significantly elevated odds ratios. These results support a previous finding that lead is a risk factor, but not radiation, hydrocarbon, or boron exposures.

  9. Smoking: A risk factor for vascular disease.

    PubMed

    Gordon, Phyllis; Flanagan, Patty

    2016-09-01

    Smoking in the United States includes at least 16% of the adults, 24% of high school students, nearly 8% of middle school students and is more prevalent in men than women; however, a decline in smoking has been documented in recent years. Cardiovascular disease continues to be a leading cause of death. Smoking is identified as a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease, carotid disease, and peripheral artery disease with peripheral artery disease documented in 5%-10% of all Americans. Smoking is also a significant risk factor in the development of abdominal aortic aneurysm in 7% of men aged 65-75 years with a smoking history. Toxic chemicals found in tobacco smoke are reported at 7,357 chemical compounds including the addictive chemical of nicotine. A substantial number of large studies and well-known trials have identified an increase in proinflammatory cells and cellular processes in the smoker diagnosed with atherosclerosis and in the mechanism attributed to abdominal aortic aneurysm development. The cost of smoking to health care is significant, and smoking cessation can demonstrate benefits to health improvement and the cost of health care. PMID:27568314

  10. Genetic risk factors in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed Central

    Tilley, L; Morgan, K; Kalsheker, N

    1998-01-01

    Following a brief introduction and discussion of the pathological features of Alzheimer's disease, the main emphasis of this review article will be the genetic factors that have been implicated in this disease. These can be divided into two main categories. First, the three genes in which mutations are known to result in early onset autosomal dominant familial Alzheimer's disease will be discussed. These are well characterised but account for only a small proportion of Alzheimer's disease cases. Late onset, sporadic Alzheimer's disease is more common and evidence suggests that there is a genetic component to this type of disease. A number of genetic risk factors have been implicated that might increase the risk of developing sporadic disease. Many of these are controversial and studies have shown conflicting results, which are discussed in this section. Finally, a brief discussion of some of the mechanisms suggested to play a role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease is included. It is hoped that this will show why particular genes have been implicated in Alzheimer's disease and how they might be able to influence the development of the disease. PMID:10193509

  11. [Perception of health risks: psychological and social factors].

    PubMed

    Kurzenhäuser, S; Epp, A

    2009-12-01

    This article reviews central findings and current developments of psychological and sociological research on the perception of health risks. Risk perception is influenced by numerous psychological, social, political, and cultural factors. These factors can be categorized into (a) risk characteristics, (b) characteristics of the risk perceiving person and his/her situation, and (c) characteristics of risk communication. Thus, besides individual cognitive and affective processing of risk information, social processes of risk amplification (e.g., media effects) are also involved in the construction of individual risk perceptions. We discuss the recommendations for health risk communication that follow from these findings with regard to different communication goals. PMID:19862487

  12. New Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Their Use for an Accurate Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Hypertensive Patients

    PubMed Central

    TAUTU, Oana-Florentina; DARABONT, Roxana; ONCIUL, Sebastian; DEACONU, Alexandru; COMANESCU, Ioana; ANDREI, Radu Dan; DRAGOESCU, Bogdan; CINTEZA, Mircea; DOROBANTU, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To analyze the predictive value of new cardiovascular (CV) risk factors for CV risk assessment in the adult Romanian hypertensive (HT) population. Methods: Hypertensive adults aged between 40-65 years of age, identified in national representative SEPHAR II survey were evaluated by anthropometric, BP and arterial stiffness measurements: aortic pulse wave velocity (PWVao), aortic augmentation index (AIXao), revers time (RT) and central systolic blood pressure (SBPao), 12 lead ECGs and laboratory workup. Values above the 4th quartile of mean SBP' standard deviation (s.d.) defined increased BP variability. Log(TG/HDL-cholesterol) defined atherogenic index of plasma (AIP). Serum uric acid levels above 5.70 mg/dl for women and 7.0 mg/dl for males defined hyperuricemia (HUA). CV risk was assessed based on SCORE chart for high CV risk countries. Binary logistic regression using a stepwise likelihood ratio method (adjustments for major confounders and colliniarity analysis) was used in order to validate predictors of high and very high CV risk class. Results: The mean SBP value of the study group was 148.46±19.61 mmHg. Over forty percent of hypertensives had a high and very high CV risk. Predictors of high/very high CV risk category validated by regression analysis were: increased visit-to-visit BP variability (OR: 2.49; 95%CI: 1.67-3.73), PWVao (OR: 1.12; 95%CI: 1.02-1.22), RT (OR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.93-0.98), SBPao (OR: 1.01; 95%CI: 1.01-1.03) and AIP (OR: 7.08; 95%CI: 3.91-12.82). Conclusion: The results of our study suggests that the new CV risk factors such as increased BP variability, arterial stiffness indices and AIP are useful tools for a more accurate identification of hypertensives patients at high and very high CV risk. PMID:25705267

  13. What Are the Risk Factors for Gastrointestinal Carcinoid Tumors?

    MedlinePlus

    ... is a risk factor for skin cancer, while smoking is a risk factor for cancer of the lung and several ... affected. Factors with uncertain or unproven effects Smoking Smoking may increase the risk of getting a carcinoid tumor of the small ...

  14. What Are the Risk Factors for Thymus Cancer?

    MedlinePlus

    ... cancer? What are the risk factors for thymus cancer? A risk factor is anything that affects your chance of getting ... Back to top » Guide Topics What Is Thymus Cancer? Causes, Risk Factors, and Prevention Early Detection, Diagnosis, and Staging Treating ...

  15. Individual risk of cutaneous melanoma in New Zealand: developing a clinical prediction aid

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background New Zealand and Australia have the highest melanoma incidence rates worldwide. In New Zealand, both the incidence and thickness have been increasing. Clinical decisions require accurate risk prediction but a simple list of genetic, phenotypic and behavioural risk factors is inadequate to estimate individual risk as the risk factors for melanoma have complex interactions. In order to offer tailored clinical management strategies, we developed a New Zealand prediction model to estimate individual 5-year absolute risk of melanoma. Methods A population-based case–control study (368 cases and 270 controls) of melanoma risk factors provided estimates of relative risks for fair-skinned New Zealanders aged 20–79 years. Model selection techniques and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the important predictors. The relative risks for predictors were combined with baseline melanoma incidence rates and non-melanoma mortality rates to calculate individual probabilities of developing melanoma within 5 years. Results For women, the best model included skin colour, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, having a 1st degree relative with large moles, and a personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The model correctly classified 68% of participants; the C-statistic was 0.74. For men, the best model included age, place of occupation up to age 18 years, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, birthplace, and a history of NMSC. The model correctly classified 67% of cases; the C-statistic was 0.71. Conclusions We have developed the first New Zealand risk prediction model that calculates individual absolute 5-year risk of melanoma. This model will aid physicians to identify individuals at high risk, allowing them to individually target surveillance and other management strategies, and thereby reduce the high melanoma burden in New Zealand. PMID:24884419

  16. Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, M.D.; Varma, R.; Heger, A.S.

    1996-03-01

    Many complex engineering systems will exceed their design life expectancy within the next 10 to 15 years. It is also expected that these systems must be maintained and operated beyond their design life. This paper presents a integrated approach for managing the risks associated with aging effects and predicting the residually expectancy these systems, The approach unifies risk assessment, enhanced surveillance and testing, and robust computational models to assess the risk, predict age, and develop a life-extension management procedure. It also relies on the state of the art in life-extension and risk assessment methods from the nuclear power industry. Borrowing from the developments in decision analysis, this approach should systematically identify the options available for managing the existing aging systems beyond their intended design life.

  17. Waist-to-Height Ratio and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Elderly Individuals at High Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Guasch-Ferré, Marta; Bulló, Mònica; Martínez-González, Miguel Ángel; Corella, Dolores; Estruch, Ramon; Covas, María-Isabel; Arós, Fernando; Wärnberg, Julia; Fiol, Miquel; Lapetra, José; Muñoz, Miguel Ángel; Serra-Majem, Lluís; Pintó, Xavier; Babio, Nancy; Díaz-López, Andrés; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Several anthropometric measurements have been associated with cardiovascular disease, type-2 diabetes mellitus and other cardiovascular risk conditions, such as hypertension or metabolic syndrome. Waist-to-height-ratio has been proposed as a useful tool for assessing abdominal obesity, correcting other measurements for the height of the individual. We compared the ability of several anthropometric measurements to predict the presence of type-2 diabetes, hyperglycemia, hypertension, atherogenic dyslipidemia or metabolic syndrome. Materials and Methods In our cross-sectional analyses we included 7447 Spanish individuals at high cardiovascular risk, men aged 55–80 years and women aged 60–80 years, from the PREDIMED study. Logistic regression models were fitted to evaluate the odds ratio of presenting each cardiovascular risk factor according to various anthropometric measures. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to compare the predictive ability of these measurements. Results In this relatively homogeneous cohort with 48.6% of type-2 diabetic individuals, the great majority of the studied anthropometric parameters were significantly and positively associated with the cardiovascular risk factors. No association was found between BMI and body weight and diabetes mellitus. The AUCs for the waist-to-height ratio and waist circumference were significantly higher than the AUCs for BMI or weight for type-2 diabetes, hyperglycemia, atherogenic dyslipidemia and metabolic syndrome. Conversely, BMI was the strongest predictor of hypertension. Conclusions We concluded that measures of abdominal obesity showed higher discriminative ability for diabetes mellitus, high fasting plasma glucose, atherogenic dyslipidemia and metabolic syndrome than BMI or weight in a large cohort of elderly Mediterranean individuals at high cardiovascular risk. No significant differences were found between the predictive abilities of waist

  18. Factors that Predict Quality Classroom Technology Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hastings, Tricia A.

    2009-01-01

    Despite technological advancements intended to enhance teaching and learning in the 21st century, numerous teacher and school factors continue to impede quality classroom technology use. Determining the effectiveness of educational technology is challenging and requires a detailed understanding of multifaceted, complex, contextual relationships.…

  19. Risk prediction tools for cancer in primary care.

    PubMed

    Usher-Smith, Juliet; Emery, Jon; Hamilton, Willie; Griffin, Simon J; Walter, Fiona M

    2015-12-22

    Numerous risk tools are now available, which predict either current or future risk of a cancer diagnosis. In theory, these tools have the potential to improve patient outcomes through enhancing the consistency and quality of clinical decision-making, facilitating equitable and cost-effective distribution of finite resources such as screening tests or preventive interventions, and encouraging behaviour change. These potential uses have been recognised by the National Cancer Institute as an 'area of extraordinary opportunity' and an increasing number of risk prediction models continue to be developed. The data on predictive utility (discrimination and calibration) of these models suggest that some have potential for clinical application; however, the focus on implementation and impact is much more recent and there remains considerable uncertainty about their clinical utility and how to implement them in order to maximise benefits and minimise harms such as over-medicalisation, anxiety and false reassurance. If the potential benefits of risk prediction models are to be realised in clinical practice, further validation of the underlying risk models and research to assess the acceptability, clinical impact and economic implications of incorporating them in practice are needed. PMID:26633558

  20. Predicting perceived risk of crime: a multilevel study.

    PubMed

    Russo, Silvia; Roccato, Michele; Vieno, Alessio

    2011-12-01

    With a sample of Italians selected from 71 Italian counties (N = 1,868), we performed two multilevel analyses aimed at predicting the perceived risk of crime at local (i.e., in the participants' county of residence) and at societal (i.e., in the context of Italian society) levels. A significant proportion of the variation in local risk perception was at the county level. The following individual variables predicted higher levels of this variable: indirect victimization, the perception of social and physical disorder, being a woman, being poorly educated, and being an older person. Among the ecological predictors, the crime rate and unemployment rate predicted higher levels of local crime risk perception, while the immigrant rate did not. Perceived risk of crime at the societal level did not show significant variation at the county level. Education, being a man, trusting people, and adhesion to post-materialistic values predicted lower levels of societal crime risk perception, while number of sons/daughters and exposure to television news increased it. The limitations and possible development of this study are discussed. PMID:21161721

  1. Risk prediction tools for cancer in primary care

    PubMed Central

    Usher-Smith, Juliet; Emery, Jon; Hamilton, Willie; Griffin, Simon J; Walter, Fiona M

    2015-01-01

    Numerous risk tools are now available, which predict either current or future risk of a cancer diagnosis. In theory, these tools have the potential to improve patient outcomes through enhancing the consistency and quality of clinical decision-making, facilitating equitable and cost-effective distribution of finite resources such as screening tests or preventive interventions, and encouraging behaviour change. These potential uses have been recognised by the National Cancer Institute as an ‘area of extraordinary opportunity' and an increasing number of risk prediction models continue to be developed. The data on predictive utility (discrimination and calibration) of these models suggest that some have potential for clinical application; however, the focus on implementation and impact is much more recent and there remains considerable uncertainty about their clinical utility and how to implement them in order to maximise benefits and minimise harms such as over-medicalisation, anxiety and false reassurance. If the potential benefits of risk prediction models are to be realised in clinical practice, further validation of the underlying risk models and research to assess the acceptability, clinical impact and economic implications of incorporating them in practice are needed. PMID:26633558

  2. Molecular predictive and prognostic factors in ependymoma.

    PubMed

    Benson, Rony; Mallick, Supriya; Julka, Pramod K; Rath, Goura K

    2016-01-01

    An ependymoma is an uncommon glial tumor, which arises from different parts of the neuroaxis. Considerable variation in presentation and survival in tumors in different locations after an optimum treatment indicates inherent molecular and genetic differences in tumorigenesis between them. A number of genetic aberrations have been identified to distinctly characterize different subgroups of ependymomas that include a posterior fossa tumor, a supratentorial tumor, and a pediatric tumor. These different groups have substantial genetic alterations, and also distinct demography, clinical characteristics, and prognosis. This article is intended to review the diverse molecular and genetic aberrations that may be helpful in prognostication and prediction of survival in patients suffering from an ependymoma. PMID:26954807

  3. Environmental risk factors of systemic sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Marie, Isabelle; Gehanno, Jean-François

    2015-09-01

    Systemic sclerosis (SSc) has a complex pathogenesis. Although, there is a growing evidence that environmental factors have an impact on alterations and modulation of epigenetic determinants, resulting in SSc onset and progression. A marked correlation has thus been found between SSc onset and occupational exposure to crystalline silica and the following organic solvents: white spirit, aromatic solvents, chlorinated solvents, trichloroethylene, and ketones; the risk associated with high cumulative exposure to silica and organic solvents further appears to be strongly increased in SSc. Altogether, occupational exposure should be systematically checked in all SSc patients at diagnosis, as (1) exposed patients seem to develop more severe forms of SSc and (2) the identification of the occupational agents will allow its interruption, which may lead to potential improvement of SSc outcome. By contrast, based on current published data, there is insufficient evidence that exposure to other chemical agents (including notably pesticides as well as personal care such as silicone and hair dye), physical agents (ionizing radiation, ultraviolet radiation, electric and magnetic fields), and biological agents (infections and diet, foods, and dietary contaminants) is a causative factor of SSc. Further investigations are still warranted to identify other environmental factors that may be associated with SSc onset and progression. PMID:26141606

  4. Risk Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Random Survival Forest

    PubMed Central

    Miao, Fen; Cai, Yun-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Xiao; Li, Ye; Zhang, Yuan-Ting

    2015-01-01

    Existing models for predicting mortality based on traditional Cox proportional hazard approach (CPH) often have low prediction accuracy. This paper aims to develop a clinical risk model with good accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality in cardiac arrhythmias patients using random survival forest (RSF), a robust approach for survival analysis. 10,488 cardiac arrhythmias patients available in the public MIMIC II clinical database were investigated, with 3,452 deaths occurring within 1-year followups. Forty risk factors including demographics and clinical and laboratory information and antiarrhythmic agents were analyzed as potential predictors of all-cause mortality. RSF was adopted to build a comprehensive survival model and a simplified risk model composed of 14 top risk factors. The built comprehensive model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.81 measured by c-statistic with 10-fold cross validation. The simplified risk model also achieved a good accuracy of 0.799. Both results outperformed traditional CPH (which achieved a c-statistic of 0.733 for the comprehensive model and 0.718 for the simplified model). Moreover, various factors are observed to have nonlinear impact on cardiac arrhythmias prognosis. As a result, RSF based model which took nonlinearity into account significantly outperformed traditional Cox proportional hazard model and has great potential to be a more effective approach for survival analysis. PMID:26379761

  5. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    PubMed Central

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-01-01

    Introduction National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the ‘high risk’ patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Methods Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. Results The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien–Dindo grade 2–3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4–5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Discussion Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. Conclusions In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the ‘high-risk’ patient. PMID:26468369

  6. Risk factors of uveitis in ankylosing spondylitis

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Li; Wu, Rui; Xue, Qin; Wang, Feng; Lu, Peirong

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: Uveitis is the most common extra-articular manifestation in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS). The prevalence and characteristics of uveitis in AS have been studied in previous literatures, whereas its associated risk factors have not been clarified. Therefore, this study analyzed the risk factors of uveitis in patients with AS. Methods: A total of 390 patients with AS who fulfilled the modified New York criteria were enrolled from January to December in 2015. The history of uveitis was accepted only if diagnosed by ophthalmologists. The medical records of the patients were retrospectively reviewed and associated information was collected, such as disease duration, HLA-B27, and the number of peripheral arthritis. Hip-joint lesion was identified by imaging examination. Meanwhile, biochemical examinations were performed to determine the patient's physical function. Results: Of 390 patients with AS (80.5% male, mean age 33.3 years), 38 (9.7%) had experienced 1 or more episodes of uveitis. The incidence rate for hip-joint lesion was obviously higher for patients with uveitis than the nonuveitis group (44.7% vs 22.2%; P < 0.01). The number of peripheral arthritis was also larger for the uveitis group than nonuveitis group (2.18 ± 0.23 vs 0.55 ± 0.04; P < 0.001). Meanwhile, patients with uveitis had a significantly higher level of antistreptolysin O (ASO) and circulating immune complex (CIC) than those without (P < 0.05 and P < 0.0001, respectively). However, there were no significant differences in disease duration, HLA-B27, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and C-reactive protein (CRP) between the 2 groups. Binary logistic regression results showed that ASO (OR = 12.2, 95% CI:3.6–41.3, P < 0.01) and the number of peripheral arthritis (OR = 4.1, 95%CI:2.6–6.3, P < 0.01) are significantly associated with uveitis in AS. Conclustion: This study provides some evidence that hip-joint lesion, the number of

  7. Environmental risk factors associated with bovine tuberculosis among cattle in high-risk areas.

    PubMed

    Winkler, B; Mathews, F

    2015-11-01

    Our research shows that environmental features are important predictors of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British cattle herds in high-prevalence regions. Data from 503 case and 808 control farms included in the randomized badger culling trial (RBCT) were analysed. bTB risk increased in larger herds and on farms with greater areas of maize, deciduous woodland and marsh, whereas a higher percentage of boundaries composed of hedgerows decreased the risk. The model was tested on another case-control study outside RBCT areas, and here it had a much smaller predictive power. This suggests that different infection dynamics operate outside high-risk areas, although it is possible that unknown confounding factors may also have played a role. PMID:26559511

  8. Preterm Birth: A Prominent Risk Factor for Low Apgar Scores

    PubMed Central

    Svenvik, Maria; Brudin, Lars; Blomberg, Marie

    2015-01-01

    Objective. To determine predictive risk factors for Apgar scores < 7 at 5 minutes at two hospitals providing tertiary care and secondary care, respectively. Methods. A retrospective registry cohort study of 21126 births (2006–2010) using data from digital medical records. Risk factors were analyzed by logistic regression analyses. Results.  AS5min⁡ < 7 was multivariately associated with the following: preterm birth; gestational week 32 + 0–36 + 6, OR = 3.9 (95% CI 2.9–5.3); week 28 + 0–31 + 6, OR = 8 (5–12); week < 28 + 0, OR = 15 (8–29); postterm birth, OR = 2.0 (1.7–2.3); multiple pregnancy, OR = 3.53 (1.79–6.96); previous cesarean section, OR = 3.67 (2.31–5.81); BMI 25–29, OR = 1.30 (1.09–1.55); BMI ≥ 30  OR = 1.70 (1.20–2.41); nonnormal CTG at admission, OR = 1.98 (1.48–2.66). ≥1-para was associated with a decreased risk for AS5min⁡ < 7, OR = 0.34 (0.25–0.47). In the univariate logistic regression analysis AS5min⁡ < 7 was associated with tertiary level care, OR = 1.48 (1.17–1.87); however, in the multivariate analysis there was no significant difference. Conclusion. A number of partially preventable risk factors were identified, preterm birth being the most evident. Further, no significant difference between the two hospital levels regarding the risk for low Apgar scores was detected. PMID:26413554

  9. Risk Factors of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome and Risk Factors for Sleep Disturbances

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelmanson, Igor A.

    2011-01-01

    Relationship between major risk factors of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) and sleep disorders in the infants is the subject of review and discussion. Improper micro-environmental characteristics (especially poor environmental organisation and lack of developmental stimulation), pre-term delivery and/or infant low birth weight, prone sleep…

  10. Predicting Dyslexia at Age 11 from a Risk Index Questionnaire at Age 5

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Helland, Turid; Plante, Elena; Hugdahl, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    This study focused on predicting dyslexia in children ahead of formal literacy training. Because dyslexia is a constitutional impairment, risk factors should be seen in preschool. It was hypothesized that data gathered at age 5 using questions targeting the dyslexia endophenotype should be reliable and valid predictors of dyslexia at age 11. A…

  11. Using Predictive Modelling to Identify Students at Risk of Poor University Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jia, Pengfei; Maloney, Tim

    2015-01-01

    Predictive modelling is used to identify students at risk of failing their first-year courses and not returning to university in the second year. Our aim is twofold. Firstly, we want to understand the factors that lead to poor first-year experiences at university. Secondly, we want to develop simple, low-cost tools that would allow universities to…

  12. Competing hazards with shared unmeasured risk factors.

    PubMed

    Hill, D H; Axinn, W G; Thornton, A

    1993-01-01

    "The present paper develops a generalization of the standard discrete-time competing hazards model that allows for the types of stochastic dependencies resulting from shared unmeasured risk factors. An empirical example is provided using the process by which young women form their first conjugal residential union, with married and unmarried cohabitation representing the competing alternatives. The results suggest considerable and significant similarity of the alternatives in terms of the unmeasurables. It is also shown that, as a result, the independence assumption leads to substantially biased estimates of the net marriage and net cohabitation survival functions." The data concern a cohort of white children born in Detroit, Michigan, in 1961 and their mothers, followed up to 1985. PMID:12318164

  13. Birth defects: Risk factors and consequences

    PubMed Central

    Oliveira, Camila Ive Ferreira; Fett-Conte, Agnes Cristina

    2013-01-01

    Birth defects (BDs) or congenital anomalies include all structural and functional alterations in embryonic or fetal development resulting from genetic, environmental or unknown causes, which result in physical and/or mental impairment. BDs occur in about 3% of newborn babies and in most cases of pregnancy loss. BDs are a very complex and heterogeneous group of single or multiple changes that, in most cases, are of unknown etiology. Among the risk factors are advanced maternal and paternal ages, parental consanguinity, teratogenic agents such as infectious agents and drugs, and poor nutrition, in particular folic acid deficiency. One of the consequences of these defects is the high death rate within the first year of life. Information on BDs is becoming increasingly more important throughout the world so that preventive measures can be taken. Knowledge of BDs enables the development of therapeutic and preventive strategies besides adequate genetic counseling.

  14. Calciphylaxis: Risk Factors, Diagnosis, and Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Nigwekar, Sagar U.; Kroshinksy, Daniela; Nazarian, Rosalynn M.; Goverman, Jeremy; Malhotra, Rajeev; Jackson, Vicki Ann; Kamdar, Mihir M.; Steele J.R., David; Thadhani, Ravi I.

    2015-01-01

    Calciphylaxis is a rare but devastating condition that has continued to challenge the medical community since its early descriptions in the scientific literature many decades ago. It is predominantly seen in chronic kidney failure patients treated with dialysis (uremic calciphylaxis) but is also described in patients with earlier stages of chronic kidney disease and with normal renal function. In this In Practice feature, we review the available medical literature regarding risk factors, diagnosis, and treatment of both uremic and non-uremic calciphylaxis. High quality evidence for the evaluation and management of calciphylaxis is lacking at this time due to its rare incidence, poorly understood pathogenesis, and the relative paucity of collaborative research efforts. We hereby provide a summary of recommendations developed by the Massachusetts General Hospital's Multi-disciplinary Calciphylaxis Team for calciphylaxis patients. PMID:25960299

  15. Depression in athletes: prevalence and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Wolanin, Andrew; Gross, Michael; Hong, Eugene

    2015-01-01

    Depression affects an estimated 6.7% of today's adult population in a 12-month period. The prevalence rates for certain age groups, such as young adults and older adults, are higher. There are approximately 400,000 National Collegiate Athletic Association student athletes competing each year and 5 to 7 million high school student athletes involved in competitive interscholastic sports. Given such a high prevalence rate in certain age groups and a large denominator pool of athletes, past notions that athletes are devoid of mental health issues have come under scrutiny by sports medicine providers. Initial data suggest that athletes are far from immune to depression. The purpose of this article was to review the current research on athletes and depression; particularly this article will provide an overview of studies, which have investigated the rate of depression among athletes, and discuss relevant risk factors, which may contribute to depression among athletes. PMID:25574886

  16. Variability, Predictability, and Risk in the Alaskan Arctic Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arbetter, T. E.; Goldstein, M. A.; Lynch, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Summer sea ice extent in the Arctic has been in decline since 1996, but after successive record September minimums in 2005, 2007, and 2012, the possibility of developing the high Arctic has rapidly changed from something decades away to an imminent opportunity. The Obama administration permitted Royal Dutch Shell to conduct exploratory oil drilling in the Chukchi Sea in summer 2015. If successful, further development will follow. The Bering Strait, as the exit of the Northern Sea Route, has already seen increased ship traffic, and this will likely continue if the sea ice remains reliably low. While not the only factor, predictability of sea ice extent, particularly on seasonal scales (3-12 months), is essential; a wrong decision will be costly if not catastrophic (e.g, Kulluk 2012). Using a reduced form model, we investigate geophysical processes which govern the advance and retreat of the sea ice edge at key points (e.g., Nome, Kotzebue, Barrow, Prudhoe Bay). Using the Black-Scholes Option Pricing formula, we estimate costs and risks associated with the ice edge variability.

  17. Predictive factors of excessive online poker playing.

    PubMed

    Hopley, Anthony A B; Nicki, Richard M

    2010-08-01

    Despite the widespread rise of online poker playing, there is a paucity of research examining potential predictors for excessive poker playing. The aim of this study was to build on recent research examining motives for Texas Hold'em play in students by determining whether predictors of other kinds of excessive gambling apply to Texas Hold'em. Impulsivity, negative mood states, dissociation, and boredom proneness have been linked to general problem gambling and may play a role in online poker. Participants of this study were self-selected online poker players (N = 179) who completed an online survey. Results revealed that participants played an average of 20 hours of online poker a week and approximately 9% of the sample was classified as a problem gambler according to the Canadian Problem Gambling Index. Problem gambling, in this sample, was uniquely predicted by time played, dissociation, boredom proneness, impulsivity, and negative affective states, namely depression, anxiety, and stress. PMID:20712496

  18. Predictive factors for masticatory performance in Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

    PubMed

    van Bruggen, H W; van de Engel-Hoek, L; Steenks, M H; Bronkhorst, E M; Creugers, N H J; de Groot, I J M; Kalaykova, S I

    2014-08-01

    Patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) report masticatory and swallowing problems. Such problems may cause complications such as choking, and feeling of food sticking in the throat. We investigated whether masticatory performance in DMD is objectively impaired, and explored predictive factors for compromised mastication. Twenty-three patients and 23 controls filled out two questionnaires about mandibular function, and underwent a clinical examination of the masticatory system and measurements of anterior bite force and masticatory performance. In the patients, moreover, quantitative ultrasound of the tongue and motor function measurement was performed. The patients were categorized into ambulatory stage (early or late), early non-ambulatory stage, or late non-ambulatory stage. Masticatory performance, anterior bite force and occlusal contacts were all reduced in the patient group compared to the controls (all p < 0.001). Mastication abnormalities were present early in the disease process prior to a reduction of motor function measurement. The early non-ambulatory and late non-ambulatory stage groups showed less masticatory performance compared to the ambulatory stage group (p < 0.028 and p < 0.010, respectively). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that stage of the disease was the strongest independent risk factor for the masticatory performance (R(2) = 0.52). Anterior bite force, occlusal contacts and masticatory performance in DMD are severely reduced. PMID:24969130

  19. Hepatocellular carcinoma: epidemiology and risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Kew, Michael C

    2014-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the major malignant tumors in the world today. The number of new cases of the tumor increases year by year, and hepatocellular carcinoma almost always runs a fulminant course and carries an especially grave prognosis. It has a low resectability rate and a high recurrence rate after surgical intervention, and responds poorly to anticancer drugs and radiotherapy. Hepatocellular carcinoma does not have a uniform geographical distribution: rather, very high incidences occur in Eastern and Southeastern Asia and in sub-Saharan Black Africans. In these regions and populations, the tumor shows a distinct shift in age distribution toward the younger ages, seen to greatest extent in sub-Saharan Black Africans. In all populations, males are more commonly affected. The most common risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in resource-poor populations with a high incidence of the tumor are chronic hepatitis B virus infection and dietary exposure to the fungal hepatocarcinogen aflatoxin B1. These two causative agents act either singly or synergistically. Both the viral infection and exposure to the fungus occur from early childhood, and the tumor typically presents at an early age. Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is an important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma in resource-rich countries with a low incidence of the tumor. The infection is acquired in adulthood and hepatocellular carcinoma occurs later than it does with hepatitis B virus-induced tumors. In recent years, obesity and the metabolic syndrome have increased markedly in incidence and importance as a cause of hepatocellular carcinoma in some resource-rich regions. Chronic alcohol abuse remains an important risk factor for malignant transformation of hepatocytes, frequently in association with alcohol-induced cirrhosis. Excessive iron accumulation in hereditary hemochromatosis and dietary iron overload in the Black African population and membranous obstruction of the inferior cava

  20. Soil organic matter prediction using environmental factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oueslati, I.; Allamano, P.; Claps, P.; Bonifacio, E.

    2009-04-01

    Organic matter is one of the most important properties affecting soil chemical and physical fertility, but it influences also soil hydrologic parameters. It is easily measured by chemical analyses, but in large scale studies its prediction is desirable. This study aims at predicting the spatial distribution of the soil organic matter concentration (SOM) in forest topsoils in Piedmont (North West Italy) using continuous predictors (in forms of auxiliary maps). As predictors we selected: the digital elevation model (DEM, 50 meter resolution), the mean annual precipitation, the soil dryness index and normal difference vegetation index (NDVI, 1 km resolution). Using the Geographic Information System SAGA, the terrain attributes were computed from the DEM, namely are: elevation, slope, aspect and mean curvature associated with hydrological parameters namely, the compound topographic index (CTI) and stream power index (SPI). From the long term monthly average of NDVI the mean annual value and the coefficient of variation (CV) were also derived. This data set was used to estimate the SOM concentration by regression analysis. To test the relationship between the SOM and the environmental variables, 66 soil profiles were used. Several variables were found to be significantly correlated with SOM concentration: elevation, slope, mean NDVI, CV(NDVI), precipitation and dryness index, with correlation coefficients, r, of the linear regressions ranging from 0.12 to 0.63. However, only precipitation and mean NDVI were retained when a stepwise multiple regression was used. Although these two predictors contribute only partially to explain SOM variability (R2=0.42). The importance of vegetation is clearly depicted by the significant effect of NDVI, while the precipitation may contribute to the explanation in a less direct way because of the complex links between climate and organic matter transformation in soils.

  1. Desire thinking: A risk factor for binge eating?

    PubMed

    Spada, Marcantonio M; Caselli, Gabriele; Fernie, Bruce A; Manfredi, Chiara; Boccaletti, Fabio; Dallari, Giulia; Gandini, Federica; Pinna, Eleonora; Ruggiero, Giovanni M; Sassaroli, Sandra

    2015-08-01

    In the current study we explored the role of desire thinking in predicting binge eating independently of Body Mass Index, negative affect and irrational food beliefs. A sample of binge eaters (n=77) and a sample of non-binge eaters (n=185) completed the following self-report instruments: Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Irrational Food Beliefs Scale, Desire Thinking Questionnaire, and Binge Eating Scale. Mann-Whitney U tests revealed that all variable scores were significantly higher for binge eaters than non-binge eaters. A logistic regression analysis indicated that verbal perseveration was a predictor of classification as a binge eater over and above Body Mass Index, negative affect and irrational food beliefs. A hierarchical regression analysis, on the combined sample, indicated that verbal perseveration predicted levels of binge eating independently of Body Mass Index, negative affect and irrational food beliefs. These results highlight the possible role of desire thinking as a risk factor for binge eating. PMID:25880044

  2. Factors Predicting Atypical Development of Nighttime Bladder Control

    PubMed Central

    Sullivan, Sarah; Heron, Jon

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT: Objective: To derive latent classes (longitudinal “phenotypes”) of frequency of bedwetting from 4 to 9 years and to examine their association with developmental delay, parental history of bedwetting, length of gestation and birth weight. Method: The authors used data from 8,769 children from the UK Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort. Mothers provided repeated reports on their child's frequency of bedwetting from 4 to 9 years. The authors used longitudinal latent class analysis to derive latent classes of bedwetting and examined their association with sex, developmental level at 18 months, parental history of wetting, birth weight, and gestational length. Results: The authors identified 5 latent classes: (1) “normative”—low probability of bedwetting; (2) “infrequent delayed”—delayed attainment of nighttime bladder control with bedwetting factors that predict continuation of bedwetting at school age. Increased knowledge of risk factors for bedwetting is needed to identify children at risk of future problems attaining and maintaining continence. PMID:26468941

  3. Predicting the Unpredictable? Identifying High-Risk versus Low-Risk Parents with Intellectual Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGaw, Sue; Scully, Tamara; Pritchard, Colin

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: This study set out to identify risk factors affecting parents with intellectual disabilities (IDs) by determining: (i) whether perception of family support differs between parents with IDs, referring professionals, and a specialist parenting service; (ii) whether multivariate familial and demographic factors differentiates "high-risk"…

  4. The role of risk propensity in predicting self-employment.

    PubMed

    Nieß, Christiane; Biemann, Torsten

    2014-09-01

    This study aims to untangle the role of risk propensity as a predictor of self-employment entry and self-employment survival. More specifically, it examines whether the potentially positive effect of risk propensity on the decision to become self-employed turns curvilinear when it comes to the survival of the business. Building on a longitudinal sample of 4,973 individuals from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we used event history analyses to evaluate the influence of risk propensity on self-employment over a 7-year time period. Results indicated that whereas high levels of risk propensity positively predicted the decision to become self-employed, the relationship between risk propensity and self-employment survival followed an inverted U-shaped curve. PMID:24588336

  5. Risk factors for early adolescent drug use in four ethnic and racial groups.

    PubMed Central

    Vega, W A; Zimmerman, R S; Warheit, G J; Apospori, E; Gil, A G

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVES. It is widely believed that risk factors identified in previous epidemiologic studies accurately predict adolescent drug use. Comparative studies are needed to determine how risk factors vary in prevalence, distribution, sensitivity, and pattern across the major US ethnic/racial groups. METHODS. Baseline questionnaire data from a 3-year epidemiologic study of early adolescent development and drug use were used to conduct bivariate and multivariate