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Sample records for risk stratification strategy

  1. Risk stratification strategies for cancer-associated thrombosis: an update.

    PubMed

    Khorana, Alok A; McCrae, Keith R

    2014-05-01

    Rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE) vary substantially between cancer patients. Multiple clinical risk factors including primary site of cancer and systemic therapy, and biomarkers including leukocyte and platelet counts and tissue factor are associated with increased risk of VTE. However, risk cannot be reliably predicted based on single risk factors or biomarkers. New American Society of Clinical Guidelines recommend that patients with cancer be assessed for VTE risk at the time of chemotherapy initiation and periodically thereafter. This narrative review provides an update on risk stratification approaches including a validated Risk Score. Potential applications of risk assessment including targeted thromboprophylaxis are outlined. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. PMID:24862143

  2. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665

  3. Molecular microscope strategy to improve risk stratification in early antibody-mediated kidney allograft rejection.

    PubMed

    Loupy, Alexandre; Lefaucheur, Carmen; Vernerey, Dewi; Chang, Jessica; Hidalgo, Luis G; Beuscart, Thibaut; Verine, Jerome; Aubert, Olivier; Dubleumortier, Sébastien; Duong van Huyen, Jean-Paul; Jouven, Xavier; Glotz, Denis; Legendre, Christophe; Halloran, Philip F

    2014-10-01

    Antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) is the leading cause of kidney allograft loss. We investigated whether the addition of gene expression measurements to conventional methods could serve as a molecular microscope to identify kidneys with ABMR that are at high risk for failure. We studied 939 consecutive kidney recipients at Necker Hospital (2004-2010; principal cohort) and 321 kidney recipients at Saint Louis Hospital (2006-2010; validation cohort) and assessed patients with ABMR in the first 1 year post-transplant. In addition to conventional features, we assessed microarray-based gene expression in transplant biopsy specimens using relevant molecular measurements: the ABMR Molecular Score and endothelial donor-specific antibody-selective transcript set. The main outcomes were kidney transplant loss and progression to chronic transplant injury. We identified 74 patients with ABMR in the principal cohort and 54 patients with ABMR in the validation cohort. Conventional features independently associated with failure were donor age and humoral histologic score (g+ptc+v+cg+C4d). Adjusting for conventional features, ABMR Molecular Score (hazard ratio [HR], 2.22; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.37 to 3.58; P=0.001) and endothelial donor-specific antibody-selective transcripts (HR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.00 to 9.16; P<0.05) independently associated with an increased risk of graft loss. The results were replicated in the independent validation group. Adding a gene expression assessment to a traditional risk model improved the stratification of patients at risk for graft failure (continuous net reclassification improvement, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.46; P<0.001; integrated discrimination improvement, 0.16; P<0.001). Compared with conventional assessment, the addition of gene expression measurement in kidney transplants with ABMR improves stratification of patients at high risk for graft loss. PMID:24700874

  4. Caprini Scores, Risk Stratification, and Rivaroxaban in Plastic Surgery: Time to Reconsider Our Strategy

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Limited data are available regarding the pathophysiology of venous thromboembolism in plastic surgery patients. In an effort to identify patients at greater risk, some investigators promote individual risk assessment using Caprini scores. However, these scores do not correlate with relative risk values. Affected patients cannot be reliably predicted (97% false positive rate). Caprini scores make many body contouring patients candidates for chemoprophylaxis, an intervention that introduces risks related to anticoagulation. Caprini has financial conflicts with several companies that manufacture products such as enoxaparin, commonly used for chemoprophylaxis. Rivaroxaban, taken orally, has been used by some plastic surgeons as an alternative to enoxaparin injections. However, this medication is not United States Food and Drug Administration approved for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in plastic surgery patients, and a reversal agent is unavailable. This article challenges the prevailing wisdom regarding individual risk stratification and chemoprophylaxis. Alternative methods to reduce risk for all patients include safer anesthesia methods and Doppler ultrasound surveillance. Clinical findings alone are unreliable in diagnosing deep venous thromboses. Only by using a reliable diagnostic tool such as Doppler ultrasound are we able to learn more about the natural history of this problem in our patients. Such knowledge is likely to better inform our treatment recommendations. PMID:27482481

  5. Caprini Scores, Risk Stratification, and Rivaroxaban in Plastic Surgery: Time to Reconsider Our Strategy.

    PubMed

    Swanson, Eric

    2016-06-01

    Limited data are available regarding the pathophysiology of venous thromboembolism in plastic surgery patients. In an effort to identify patients at greater risk, some investigators promote individual risk assessment using Caprini scores. However, these scores do not correlate with relative risk values. Affected patients cannot be reliably predicted (97% false positive rate). Caprini scores make many body contouring patients candidates for chemoprophylaxis, an intervention that introduces risks related to anticoagulation. Caprini has financial conflicts with several companies that manufacture products such as enoxaparin, commonly used for chemoprophylaxis. Rivaroxaban, taken orally, has been used by some plastic surgeons as an alternative to enoxaparin injections. However, this medication is not United States Food and Drug Administration approved for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in plastic surgery patients, and a reversal agent is unavailable. This article challenges the prevailing wisdom regarding individual risk stratification and chemoprophylaxis. Alternative methods to reduce risk for all patients include safer anesthesia methods and Doppler ultrasound surveillance. Clinical findings alone are unreliable in diagnosing deep venous thromboses. Only by using a reliable diagnostic tool such as Doppler ultrasound are we able to learn more about the natural history of this problem in our patients. Such knowledge is likely to better inform our treatment recommendations. PMID:27482481

  6. Sudden Cardiac Death Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Deyell, Marc W.; Krahn, Andrew D.; Goldberger, Jeffrey J.

    2015-01-01

    Arrhythmic sudden cardiac death (SCD) may be due to ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (SCD-VT/VF) or pulseless electrical activity/asystole. Effective risk stratification to identify patients at risk of arrhythmic SCD is essential for targeting our health care and research resources to tackle this important public health issue. Although our understanding of SCD due to pulseless electrical activity/asystole is growing, the overwhelming majority of research in risk stratification has focused on SCD-VT/VF. This review focuses on existing and novel risk stratification tools for SCD-VT/VF. For patients with left ventricular dysfunction and/or myocardial infarction, advances in imaging, measures of cardiac autonomic function, and measures of repolarization have shown considerable promise in refining risk. Yet the majority of SCD-VT/VF occurs in patients without known cardiac disease. Biomarkers and novel imaging techniques may provide further risk stratification in the general population beyond traditional risk stratification for coronary artery disease alone. Despite these advances, significant challenges in risk stratification remain that must be overcome before a meaningful impact on SCD can be realized. PMID:26044247

  7. Risk stratification for COPD diagnosis through an active search strategy in primary care

    PubMed Central

    Marcos, Pedro J; Malo de Molina, Rosa; Casamor, Ricard

    2016-01-01

    Background The aim of this study was to identify the percentage of undiagnosed patients with COPD through the implementation of an active search strategy in a selected subject population. Methods An observational, cross-sectional, multicenter study was conducted in a primary care setting in Spain. General practitioners gave their diagnostic impression of COPD (yes/no) on the basis of clinical criteria of subjects with respiratory symptoms and tobacco exposure. Subsequently, post-bronchodilator spirometry and quality-of-life tests were performed. Multivariate logistic regression techniques using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to identify the combination of variables that best discriminates COPD. Results A total of 2,758 patients were screened at 368 primary care centers, of which 1,725 patients were included in the study. Seven hundred and ninety-three patients (46%) were diagnosed with COPD. Clinical judgment resulted in suspected COPD in 1,393 (81%) of the subjects. The best variables to discriminate COPD were a history of lower respiratory tract infections, cough, and dyspnea. This combination identified COPD with a ROCAUC of 0.61 denoting a poor discriminative ability. Conclusion Employing an active search strategy leads to a new COPD diagnosis in almost half of the subjects. Screening of COPD with post-bronchodilator spirometry should be considered mandatory for any high-risk subject visiting the general practitioner clinic for any reason. PMID:27042035

  8. Is risk stratification ever the same as 'profiling'?

    PubMed

    Braithwaite, R Scott; Stevens, Elizabeth R; Caplan, Arthur

    2016-05-01

    Physicians engage in risk stratification as a normative part of their professional duties. Risk stratification has the potential to be beneficial in many ways, and implicit recognition of this potential benefit underlies its acceptance as a cornerstone of the medical profession. However, risk stratification also has the potential to be harmful. We argue that 'profiling' is a term that corresponds to risk stratification strategies in which there is concern that ethical harms exceed likely or proven benefits. In the case of risk stratification for health goals, this would occur most frequently if benefits were obtained by threats to justice, autonomy or privacy. We discuss implications of the potential overlap between risk stratification and profiling for researchers and for clinicians, and we consider whether there are salient characteristics that make a particular risk stratification algorithm more or less likely to overlap with profiling, such as whether the risk stratification algorithm is based on voluntary versus non-voluntary characteristics, based on causal versus non-causal characteristics, or based on signifiers of historical disadvantage. We also discuss the ethical challenges created when a risk stratification scheme helps all subgroups but some more than others, or when risk stratification harms some subgroups but benefits the aggregate group. PMID:26796335

  9. Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death

    PubMed Central

    Cutler, Michael J; Rosenbaum, David S.

    2009-01-01

    The proportion of cardiovascular deaths attributable to sudden cardiac death (SCD) is on the rise. Herein lies the rationale for developing risk stratification strategies to predict who will benefit from prophylactic ICD implantation. Current guidelines recommend prophylactic ICD therapy in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, there are clear limitations in using LVEF alone to decide who should receive an ICD. There is mounting evidence that microvolt-level T wave alternans (TWA) is an important marker of arrhythmic risk. TWA is appealing because it non-invasively probes underlying electrophysiological substrate and has been linked to cellular mechanisms for arrhythmias. This review considers the clinical role of TWA for risk stratification of SCD. PMID:19631909

  10. Risk Stratification in Multiple Myeloma.

    PubMed

    Ooi, Melissa Gaik-Ming; de Mel, Sanjay; Chng, Wee Joo

    2016-04-01

    There are many prognostic variables in multiple myeloma and the difficulty is in deciding which is truly significant. The widely used International Staging System (ISS) does not incorporate genetics, age, and other important variables in its risk stratification. Although it has its own limitations, the recently published Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) that was built upon the framework of ISS, is a more comprehensive and predictive tool for multiple myeloma patients and should be henceforth utilised. We will review the current prognostic variables and their significance in this paper. PMID:26883334

  11. Atherosclerotic risk stratification strategy for carotid arteries using texture-based features.

    PubMed

    Acharya, U Rajendra; Sree, S Vinitha; Krishnan, M Muthu Rama; Molinari, Filippo; Saba, Luca; Ho, Sin Yee Stella; Ahuja, Anil T; Ho, Suzanne C; Nicolaides, Andrew; Suri, Jasjit S

    2012-06-01

    Plaques in the carotid artery result in stenosis, which is one of the main causes for stroke. Patients have to be carefully selected for stenosis treatments as they carry some risk. Since patients with symptomatic plaques have greater risk for strokes, an objective classification technique that classifies the plaques into symptomatic and asymptomatic classes is needed. We present a computer aided diagnostic (CAD) based ultrasound characterization methodology (a class of Atheromatic systems) that classifies the patient into symptomatic and asymptomatic classes using two kinds of datasets: (1) plaque regions in ultrasound carotids segmented semi-automatically and (2) far wall gray-scale intima-media thickness (IMT) regions along the common carotid artery segmented automatically. For both kinds of datasets, the protocol consists of estimating texture-based features in frameworks of local binary patterns (LBP) and Law's texture energy (LTE) and applying these features for obtaining the training parameters, which are then used for classification. Our database consists of 150 asymptomatic and 196 symptomatic plaque regions and 342 IMT wall regions. When using the Atheromatic-based system on semiautomatically determined plaque regions, support vector machine (SVM) classifier was adapted with highest accuracy of 83%. The accuracy registered was 89.5% on the far wall gray-scale IMT regions when using SVM, K-nearest neighbor (KNN) or radial basis probabilistic neural network (RBPNN) classifiers. LBP/LTE-based techniques on both kinds of carotid datasets are noninvasive, fast, objective and cost-effective for plaque characterization and, hence, will add more value to the existing carotid plaque diagnostics protocol. We have also proposed an index for each type of datasets: AtheromaticPi, for carotid plaque region, and AtheromaticWi, for IMT carotid wall region, based on the combination of the respective significant features. These indices show a separation between symptomatic

  12. Contemporary strategies for risk stratification and prevention of sudden death with the implantable defibrillator in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Maron, Barry J; Maron, Martin S

    2016-05-01

    Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is regarded as the most common nontraumatic cause of sudden death (SD) in young people (including trained athletes). Introduction of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD) to HCM 15 years ago represented a new paradigm for clinical practice and probably the most significant advance in management of this disease. ICDs offer protection against SD by terminating potentially lethal ventricular tachyarrhythmias (11%/year secondary and 4%/year primary prevention), although implant decisions are weighed against the possibility of device-related complications (5%/year). ICDs have altered the natural history of HCM, creating the opportunity for extended or normal longevity for many patients. However, assessing SD risk and targeting appropriate candidates for prophylactic device therapy can be compounded by unpredictability of the underlying arrhythmogenic substrate, evident by delays ≥10 years between implant and first ICD intervention. Multiple or a single strong risk marker within the clinical profile of an individual HCM patient can justify consideration for a primary-prevention ICD when combined with physician judgment and shared decision making. The role of the mathematical SD risk score proposed by the European Society of Cardiology to identify patients who benefit from ICD therapy is incompletely resolved. Contemporary treatment interventions and advanced risk stratification using ≥1 conventional markers have served the HCM patient population well, with reduced disease-related mortality rates across all age groups to <1%/year, due largely to the penetration of ICDs into HCM practice. Prevention of SD has now become an integral, albeit challenging, component of HCM management, contributing importantly to its emergence as a contemporary treatable cardiac disease. PMID:26749314

  13. Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death: Current Approaches and Predictive Value

    PubMed Central

    Lopera, Gustavo; Curtis, Anne B.

    2009-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a serious public health problem; the annual incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in North America is approximately 166,200. Identifying patients at risk is a difficult proposition. At the present time, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains the single most important marker for risk stratification. According to current guidelines, most patients with LVEF <35% could benefit from prophylactic ICD implantation, particularly in the setting of symptomatic heart failure. Current risk stratification strategies fail to identify patients at risk of SCD in larger population groups encompassing a greater number of potential SCD victims. However, the best approach to identifying patients and the value of various risk stratification tools is not entirely clear. The goal of this review is to discuss the problem of SCD and the value of the different risk stratification markers and their potential clinical use either alone or in combination with other risk stratification markers. PMID:20066150

  14. Risk stratification after myocardial infarction. Clinical overview

    SciTech Connect

    O'Rourke, R.A. )

    1991-09-01

    Many patients with an acute myocardial infarction can be stratified into subgroups that are at high risk for morbidity and mortality on the basis of clinical characteristics that indicate recurrent myocardial ischemia, persistent left ventricular dysfunction, and/or recurrent cardiac arrhythmias. In patients with uncomplicated myocardial infarction the assessment of symptoms, physical findings, and ECG changes during predischarge exercise testing often identifies patients at increased risk for further cardiac events. Because of the suboptimum sensitivity and specificity of the exercise ECG for detecting myocardial ischemia, myocardial perfusion imaging with 201Tl and/or assessment of global and segmental ventricular function by two-dimensional echocardiography or radionuclide cineangiography during or immediately after exercise are often added to the predischarge risk stratification.

  15. Cytogenetic risk stratification in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Such, Esperanza; Cervera, José; Costa, Dolors; Solé, Francesc; Vallespí, Teresa; Luño, Elisa; Collado, Rosa; Calasanz, María J.; Hernández-Rivas, Jesús M.; Cigudosa, Juan C.; Nomdedeu, Benet; Mallo, Mar; Carbonell, Felix; Bueno, Javier; Ardanaz, María T.; Ramos, Fernando; Tormo, Mar; Sancho-Tello, Reyes; del Cañizo, Consuelo; Gómez, Valle; Marco, Victor; Xicoy, Blanca; Bonanad, Santiago; Pedro, Carmen; Bernal, Teresa; Sanz, Guillermo F.

    2011-01-01

    Background The prognostic value of cytogenetic findings in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia is unclear. Our purpose was to evaluate the independent prognostic impact of cytogenetic abnormalities in a large series of patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia included in the database of the Spanish Registry of Myelodysplastic Syndromes. Design and Methods We studied 414 patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia according to WHO criteria and with a successful conventional cytogenetic analysis at diagnosis. Different patient and disease characteristics were examined by univariate and multivariate methods to establish their relationship with overall survival and evolution to acute myeloid leukemia. Results Patients with abnormal karyotype (110 patients, 27%) had poorer overall survival (P=0.001) and higher risk of acute myeloid leukemia evolution (P=0.010). Based on outcome analysis, three cytogenetic risk categories were identified: low risk (normal karyotype or loss of Y chromosome as a single anomaly), high risk (presence of trisomy 8 or abnormalities of chromosome 7, or complex karyotype), and intermediate risk (all other abnormalities). Overall survival at five years for patients in the low, intermediate, and high risk cytogenetic categories was 35%, 26%, and 4%, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed that this new CMML-specific cytogenetic risk stratification was an independent prognostic variable for overall survival (P=0.001). Additionally, patients belonging to the high-risk cytogenetic category also had a higher risk of acute myeloid leukemia evolution on univariate (P=0.001) but not multivariate analysis. Conclusions Cytogenetic findings have a strong prognostic impact in patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia. PMID:21109693

  16. Ventricular repolarization measures for arrhythmic risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Monitillo, Francesco; Leone, Marta; Rizzo, Caterina; Passantino, Andrea; Iacoviello, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    Ventricular repolarization is a complex electrical phenomenon which represents a crucial stage in electrical cardiac activity. It is expressed on the surface electrocardiogram by the interval between the start of the QRS complex and the end of the T wave or U wave (QT). Several physiological, pathological and iatrogenic factors can influence ventricular repolarization. It has been demonstrated that small perturbations in this process can be a potential trigger of malignant arrhythmias, therefore the analysis of ventricular repolarization represents an interesting tool to implement risk stratification of arrhythmic events in different clinical settings. The aim of this review is to critically revise the traditional methods of static analysis of ventricular repolarization as well as those for dynamic evaluation, their prognostic significance and the possible application in daily clinical practice. PMID:26839657

  17. Role of risk stratification after myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Kuriachan, Vikas; Exner, Derek V

    2009-02-01

    Despite advances in medical and surgical therapy for patients with heart disease, sudden cardiac death remains an important public health problem that prematurely ends the lives of more than 300,000 persons each year in North America. Many of these deaths occur in patients with a history of myocardial infarction (MI). Although severe left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction is used to identify patients at risk of sudden death after MI, most cardiac arrests occur in those with only mild LV dysfunction. Further, severe LV dysfunction is not a specific indicator for cardiac arrest. Risk stratification, to identify patients most likely to benefit from implantable defibrillator therapy after MI, is an essential area of investigation. Because the development of cardiac arrest is complex and likely requires the confluence of several factors, using a single test to predict the risk of sudden death or to guide implantable defibrillator therapy is unlikely to be successful. Tests that assess cardiac structure, including repolarization, and those that evaluate autonomic modulation and other factors have been developed with the goal of identifying patients at highest risk of cardiac arrest after MI. These tests, particularly in combination, appear to identify patients who may benefit from implantable defibrillator therapy after MI. Ongoing and planned randomized controlled trials will assess whether these tests can be used to guide implantable defibrillator therapy. Until the data from these studies are available, severe LV dysfunction remains the only proven approach to guide implantable defibrillator therapy after MI. PMID:19141257

  18. Syncope risk stratification in the ED.

    PubMed

    Dipaola, Franca; Costantino, Giorgio; Solbiati, Monica; Barbic, Franca; Capitanio, Chiara; Tobaldini, Eleonora; Brunetta, Enrico; Zamunér, Antonio Roberto; Furlan, Raffaello

    2014-09-01

    Syncope may be the final common presentation of a number of clinical conditions spanning benign (i.e. neurally-mediated syncope) to life-threatening diseases (i.e. cardiac syncope). Hospitalization rate after a syncopal episode is high. An effective risk stratification is crucial to identify patients at risk of poor prognosis in the short term period to avoid unnecessary hospital admissions. The decision to admit or discharge a syncope patient from the ED is often based on the physician's clinical judgment. In recent years, several prognostic tools (i.e. clinical prediction rules and risk scores) have been developed to provide emergency physicians with accurate guidelines for hospital admission. At present, there are no compelling evidence that prognostic tools perform better than physician's clinical judgment in assessing the short-term outcome of syncope. However, the risk factors characterizing clinical prediction rules and risk scores may be profitably used by emergency doctors in their decision making, specifically whenever a syncope patient has to be discharged from ED or admitted to hospital. Patients with syncope of undetermined etiology, who are characterized by an intermediate-high risk profile after the initial evaluation, should be monitored in the ED. Indeed, data suggest that the 48h following syncope are at the highest risk for major adverse events. A new tool for syncope management is represented by the Syncope Unit in the ED or in an outpatient setting. Syncope Unit may reduce hospitalization and length of hospital stay. However, further studies are needed to clarify whether syncope patients' prognosis can be also improved. PMID:24811585

  19. The Delayed Risk Stratification System in the Risk of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Walczyk, Agnieszka; Pałyga, Iwona; Gąsior-Perczak, Danuta; Gadawska-Juszczyk, Klaudia; Szymonek, Monika; Trybek, Tomasz; Lizis-Kolus, Katarzyna; Szyska-Skrobot, Dorota; Mikina, Estera; Hurej, Stefan; Słuszniak, Janusz; Mężyk, Ryszard; Góźdź, Stanisław

    2016-01-01

    Context There has been a marked increase in the detection of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) over the past few years, which has improved the prognosis. However, it is necessary to adjust treatment and monitoring strategies relative to the risk of an unfavourable disease course. Materials and Methods This retrospective study examined data from 916 patients with DTC who received treatment at a single centre between 2000 and 2013. The utility of the American Thyroid Association (ATA) and the European Thyroid Association (ETA) recommended systems for early assessment of the risk of recurrent/persistent disease was compared with that of the recently recommended delayed risk stratification (DRS) system. Results The PPV and NPV for the ATA (24.59% and 95.42%, respectively) and ETA (24.28% and 95.68%, respectively) were significantly lower than those for the DRS (56.76% and 98.5%, respectively) (p<0.0001). The proportion of variance for predicting the final outcome was 15.8% for ATA, 16.1% for ETA and 56.7% for the DRS. Recurrent disease was rare (1% of patients), and was nearly always identified in patients at intermediate/high risk according to the initial stratification (9/10 cases). Conclusions The DRS showed a better correlation with the risk of persistent disease than the early stratification systems and allows personalisation of follow-up. If clinicians plan to alter the intensity of surveillance, patients at intermediate/high risk according to the early stratification systems should remain within the specialized centers; however, low risk patients can be referred to endocrinologists or other appropriate practitioners for long-term follow-up, as these patients remained at low risk after risk re-stratification. PMID:27078258

  20. Risk stratification for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) treatment.

    PubMed

    Emberton, Mark; Fitzpatrick, John M; Rees, Jon

    2011-03-01

    • Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is a common cause of bothersome lower urinary tract symptoms. In the past, the aim of drug treatment was to relieve symptoms until surgery became necessary, predominantly using an α-blocker or a 5α-reductase inhibitor (5ARI) as monotherapy. • Together with improving knowledge about the pathogenesis of BPH, there is now strong evidence from large randomized trials that risk stratification and appropriate treatment with combined α-blocker/5ARI therapy can significantly reduce the risk of disease progression and avoid long-term complications such as acute urinary retention and surgery. • BPH will increasingly be managed in primary care in the future and, if new management strategies based on this evidence are to be implemented cost effectively, there is a need to introduce shared care between the primary and secondary care sectors to optimise use of resources and expertise. PMID:21265993

  1. Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment

    PubMed Central

    Corcoran, David; Grant, Patrick; Berry, Colin

    2015-01-01

    Undifferentiated chest pain is one of the most common reasons for emergency department attendance and admission to hospitals. Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is an important cause of chest pain, and accurate diagnosis and risk stratification in the emergency department must be a clinical priority. In the future, the incidence of NSTE-ACS will rise further as higher sensitivity troponin assays are implemented in clinical practice. In this article, we review contemporary approaches for the diagnosis and risk stratification of NSTE-ACS during emergency care. We consider the limitations of current practices and potential improvements. Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom), in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment. PMID:26753174

  2. Integration of genetic and epigenetic markers for risk stratification: opportunities and challenges

    PubMed Central

    Pashayan, Nora; Reisel, Daniel; Widschwendter, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Summary Common genetic susceptibility variants could be used for risk stratification in risk-tailored cancer screening and prevention programmes. Combining genetic variants with environmental risk factors would improve risk stratification. Epigenetic changes are surrogate markers of environmental exposures during individual’s lifetime. Integrating epigenetic markers, in lieu of environmental exposure data, with genetic markers would potentially improve risk stratification. Epigenetic changes are reversible and acquired gradually, providing potentials for prevention and early detection strategies. The epigenetic changes are tissue-specific and stage-of-development-specific, raising challenges in choice of sample and timing for evaluation of cancer-associated changes. The Horizon 2020 funded research programme, FORECEE, using empirical data, will investigate the value of integration of epigenomics with genomics for risk prediction and prevention of women-specific cancers. PMID:27053939

  3. Surgical site infection risk factors and risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Florschutz, Anthony V; Fagan, Ryan P; Matar, Wadih Y; Sawyer, Robert G; Berrios-Torres, Sandra I

    2015-04-01

    Preoperative identification of the risk factors for surgical site infection and patient risk stratification are essential for deciding whether surgery is appropriate, educating patients on their individual risk of complications, and managing postoperative expectations. Early identification of these factors is also necessary to help guide both patient medical optimization and perioperative care planning. Several resources are currently available to track and analyze healthcare-associated infections, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Healthcare Safety Network. In addition, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons are exploring collaborative opportunities for the codevelopment of a hip and/or knee arthroplasty national quality measure for periprosthetic joint infection. PMID:25808971

  4. Risk Stratification in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: An Ongoing Process

    PubMed Central

    Omry-Orbach, Gal

    2016-01-01

    Thyroid cancer is an increasingly common malignancy, with a rapidly rising prevalence worldwide. The social and economic ramifications of the increase in thyroid cancer are multiple. Though mortality from thyroid cancer is low, and most patients will do well, the risk of recurrence is not insignificant, up to 30%. Therefore, it is important to accurately identify those patients who are more or less likely to be burdened by their disease over years and tailor their treatment plan accordingly. The goal of risk stratification is to do just that. The risk stratification process generally starts postoperatively with histopathologic staging, based on the AJCC/UICC staging system as well as others designed to predict mortality. These do not, however, accurately assess the risk of recurrence/persistence. Patients initially considered to be at high risk may ultimately do very well yet be burdened by frequent unnecessary monitoring. Conversely, patients initially thought to be low risk, may not respond to their initial treatment as expected and, if left unmonitored, may have higher morbidity. The concept of risk-adaptive management has been adopted, with an understanding that risk stratification for differentiated thyroid cancer is dynamic and ongoing. A multitude of variables not included in AJCC/UICC staging are used initially to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk for recurrence. Over the course of time, a response-to-therapy variable is incorporated, and patients essentially undergo continuous risk stratification. Additional tools such as biochemical markers, genetic mutations, and molecular markers have been added to this complex risk stratification process such that this is essentially a continuum of risk. In recent years, additional considerations have been discussed with a suggestion of pre-operative risk stratification based on certain clinical and/or biologic characteristics. With the increasing prevalence of thyroid cancer but stable mortality

  5. [Ventricular preexcitation: is risk stratification feasible?].

    PubMed

    De Rosa, Francesco; Mancuso, Paola; Chiatto, Mario; Calvelli, Antonio; De Donato, Vincenzo; Mazza, Salvatore; Spadafora, Gabriele

    2010-04-01

    The Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome is a current debated clinical issue. Although the anatomical characteristics, polymorphic electrocardiographic features, and electrophysiological mechanisms of arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death are well known, the identification of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death remains challenging. Owing to the lack of effective therapeutic strategies, in the pre-ablation era many studies have been conducted to define the prognostic value of clinical and instrumental tests, and to define the actual risk of sudden cardiac death in patients with ventricular preexcitation. Nowadays, radiofrequency transcatheter ablation of anomalous atrioventricular pathways is a strong therapeutic option for all patients, independent of the risk of sudden cardiac death. However, radiofrequency ablation is associated with serious complications, but many studies confirm an overall good prognosis for most of the patients with electrocardiographic pattern of ventricular preexcitation. The aim of this review is to assess the prognostic value of clinical and instrumental tests in patients with ventricular preexcitation, referring to the latest knowledge. PMID:20677574

  6. Coronary computed tomography angiography for risk stratification before noncardiac surgery

    PubMed Central

    Fathala, Ahmed

    2016-01-01

    Background: Currently, there are limited available data for coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in the setting of the risk stratification before noncardiac surgery. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the role of CCTA in cardiac risk stratification before noncardiac surgery. Materials and Methods: Ninety-three patients underwent CCTA in the assessment of cardiac risk before noncardiac surgery. Patients with normal or mildly abnormal CCTA (<50% stenosis) underwent surgery without any further testing (Group 1). Patients with abnormal CCTA (17 patients) (more than 50% stenosis) and nondiagnostic CCTA (5%) underwent either stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphy or conventional coronary angiography, Group 2. Results: Group one consists of 71 patients who went for surgery without any further testing. 59 of 71 (83%) patients had no complications in the postoperative period, 9 patients had noncardiac complications, 1 had a cardiac complication (new onset atrial fibrillation), and 2 patients died in the postoperative period due to noncardiac complications. Group 2 comprises 22 (26%) patients, 16 patients had no postoperative complications, 5 patients had noncardiac complications, and one patient developed postoperative acute heart failure. Conclusions: CCTA is diagnostic in up to 95% in the preoperative setting, and it provides a comprehensive cardiac examination in the risk stratification before intermediate and high-risk noncardiac surgery. Therefore, CCTA may be considered as an alternative test for already established imaging techniques for preoperative cardiac risk stratification before noncardiac surgery. PMID:26750671

  7. First review on psoriasis severity risk stratification: An engineering perspective.

    PubMed

    Shrivastava, Vimal K; Londhe, Narendra D; Sonawane, Rajendra S; Suri, Jasjit S

    2015-08-01

    Computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems have been used for characterization of several dermatologic diseases in the last few years. Psoriasis is a potentially life-threatening skin disease which affects 125 million people worldwide. The paper presents the first state-of-the-art review of technology solicitation in psoriasis along with its current practices, challenges and assessment techniques. The paper also conducts in-depth examination of the existing literature for all clinical parameters of Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) i.e., area, erythema, scaliness and thickness. We suggest a role of risk assessment using a decision support system for stratification of psoriasis in large populations. A balanced insight has been presented in all the components of the design, namely: feature extraction, feature selection, disease stratification and overall CAD performance evaluation. We conclude that CAD systems are promising for risk stratification and assessment of psoriasis. PMID:26005793

  8. [Cardiovascular risk assessment and risk stratification- guided therapy: predict, prevent and individualize].

    PubMed

    Ural, Dilek

    2011-09-01

    Modern concept in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) entails assessing the person's global risk and making the right management in accordance with these results. Correspondingly, 3 steps recommended for the prevention of CVD under risk guidance are: (a) risk assessment via a proper system like Framingham Risk Score, SCORE, QRISK, PROCAM; (b) decision-making in the proper management in terms of informing the patient about lifestyle changes that he or she can cope and drug selection; and (c) evaluation of treatment decision in terms of cost effectiveness. Although, a significant decline is observed in CVD morbidity and mortality, particularly in the western countries, we still are trying to approach to competent quality measures about management under CV risk guidance. This review summarizes the main challenges regarding risk stratification-guided management strategy in primary prevention of CVD. PMID:21821497

  9. Risk stratification of prostate cancer in the modern era

    PubMed Central

    Behesnilian, Andrew S.; Reiter, Robert E.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of Review Novel tools have become available to the practicing urologist in recent years that endeavor to improve on commonly utilized prostate cancer (PCa) risk stratification techniques. In this review, we provide an overview of these modalities in the context of active surveillance. Recent Findings Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MP-MRI) has a rapidly growing body of evidence that suggests it provides the necessary sensitivity and NPV to rule out clinically significant disease. MRI-guided targeted biopsy has the potential to improve detection of clinically significant cancers and for rebiopsy of patients with continued suspicion for PCa. PSA isoforms and Prostate Health Index (PHI) outperform PSA alone and improve risk stratification when combined with established criteria, but need further prospective studies using template and MRI-targeted biopsies. Urinary biomarkers tend to fall short in predicting adverse pathology when used alone, but improve risk-stratification when used in conjunction and with established criteria. Finally, tissue biomarkers and gene assays allow for patient-specific molecular and genetic characterization of cancer phenotype, showing significant promise in predicting adverse pathology and in some cases have already been incorporated into and altered clinical practice. Summary These novel modalities show remarkable promise in improving the risk-stratification of patients with PCa, and as the body of evidence grows will likely become incorporated into major oncologic guidelines and standard urologic practice. Further prospective clinical studies are needed, as well as analysis of cost-effectiveness. PMID:25730325

  10. Cardiovascular risk stratification in familial hypercholesterolaemia.

    PubMed

    Sharifi, Mahtab; Rakhit, Roby D; Humphries, Steve E; Nair, Devaki

    2016-07-01

    Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a common autosomal-dominant disorder in most European countries. Patients with FH are characterised by a raised level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a high risk of premature coronary heart disease (CHD). Currently there is no consensus regarding the clinical utility to predict future coronary events or testing for the presence of subclinical atherosclerotic disease in asymptomatic patients with FH. Family screening of patients with FH as recommended by the UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guideline would result in finding many young individuals with a diagnosis of FH who are clinically asymptomatic. The traditional CHD risk scores, that is, the Framingham score, are insufficient in risk prediction in this group of young individuals. In addition, a better understanding of the genetic aetiology of the FH phenotype and CHD risk in monogenic FH and polygenic hypercholesterolaemia is needed. Non-invasive imaging methods such as carotid intima-media thickness measurement might produce more reliable information in finding high-risk patients with FH. The potential market authorisation of novel therapeutic agents such as PCSK9 monoclonal inhibitors makes it essential to have a better screening programme to prioritise the candidates for treatment with the most severe form of FH and at higher risk of coronary events. The utility of new imaging techniques and new cardiovascular biomarkers remains to be determined in prospective trials. PMID:27126396

  11. Cardiovascular risk stratification in familial hypercholesterolaemia

    PubMed Central

    Sharifi, Mahtab; Rakhit, Roby D; Humphries, Steve E; Nair, Devaki

    2016-01-01

    Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a common autosomal-dominant disorder in most European countries. Patients with FH are characterised by a raised level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a high risk of premature coronary heart disease (CHD). Currently there is no consensus regarding the clinical utility to predict future coronary events or testing for the presence of subclinical atherosclerotic disease in asymptomatic patients with FH. Family screening of patients with FH as recommended by the UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guideline would result in finding many young individuals with a diagnosis of FH who are clinically asymptomatic. The traditional CHD risk scores, that is, the Framingham score, are insufficient in risk prediction in this group of young individuals. In addition, a better understanding of the genetic aetiology of the FH phenotype and CHD risk in monogenic FH and polygenic hypercholesterolaemia is needed. Non-invasive imaging methods such as carotid intima-media thickness measurement might produce more reliable information in finding high-risk patients with FH. The potential market authorisation of novel therapeutic agents such as PCSK9 monoclonal inhibitors makes it essential to have a better screening programme to prioritise the candidates for treatment with the most severe form of FH and at higher risk of coronary events. The utility of new imaging techniques and new cardiovascular biomarkers remains to be determined in prospective trials. PMID:27126396

  12. Electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death beyond the left ventricular ejection fraction.

    PubMed

    Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Tsiachris, Dimitris; Arsenos, Petros; Tousoulis, Dimitris

    2016-01-26

    Sudden cardiac death threats ischaemic and dilated cardiomyopathy patients. Anti- arrhythmic protection may be provided to these patients with implanted cardiac defibrillators (ICD), after an efficient risk stratification approach. The proposed risk stratifier of an impaired left ventricular ejection fraction has limited sensitivity meaning that a significant number of victims will remain undetectable by this risk stratification approach because they have a preserved left ventricular systolic function. Current risk stratification strategies focus on combinations of non invasive methods like T wave alternans, late potentials, heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity and others, with invasive methods like the electrophysiologic study. In the presence of an electrically impaired substrate with formed post myocardial infarction fibrotic zones, programmed ventricular stimulation provides important prognostic information for the selection of the patients expected to benefit from an ICD implantation, while due to its high negative predictive value, patients at low risk level may also be detected. Clustering evidence from different research groups and electrophysiologic labs support an electrophysiologic testing guided risk stratification approach for sudden cardiac death. PMID:26839662

  13. Risk Stratification System for Oral Cancer Screening.

    PubMed

    Pereira, Lutécia H Mateus; Reis, Isildinha M; Reategui, Erika P; Gordon, Claudia; Saint-Victor, Sandra; Duncan, Robert; Gomez, Carmen; Bayers, Stephanie; Fisher, Penelope; Perez, Aymee; Goodwin, W Jarrard; Hu, Jennifer J; Franzmann, Elizabeth J

    2016-06-01

    Oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer (oral cancer) is a deadly disease that is increasing in incidence. Worldwide 5-year survival is only 50% due to delayed intervention with more than half of the diagnoses at stage III and IV, whereas earlier detection (stage I and II) yields survival rates up to 80% to 90%. Salivary soluble CD44 (CD44), a tumor-initiating marker, and total protein levels may facilitate oral cancer risk assessment and early intervention. This study used a hospital-based design with 150 cases and 150 frequency-matched controls to determine whether CD44 and total protein levels in oral rinses were associated with oral cancer independent of age, gender, race, ethnicity, tobacco and alcohol use, and socioeconomic status (SES). High-risk subjects receiving oral cancer prevention interventions as part of a community-based program (n = 150) were followed over 1 year to determine marker specificity and variation. CD44 ≥5.33 ng/mL was highly associated with case status [adjusted OR 14.489; 95% confidence interval (CI), 5.973-35.145; P < .0001, vs. reference group CD44 <2.22 ng/mL and protein <1.23 mg/mL]. Total protein aided prediction above CD44 alone. Sensitivity and specificity in the frequency-matched study was 80% and 48.7%, respectively. However, controls were not representative of the target screening population due, in part, to a high rate of prior cancer. In contrast, specificity in the high-risk community was 74% and reached 95% after annual retesting. Simple and inexpensive salivary CD44 and total protein measurements may help identify individuals at heightened risk for oral cancer from the millions who partake in risky behaviors. Cancer Prev Res; 9(6); 445-55. ©2016 AACR. PMID:27020654

  14. Percutaneous biopsy for risk stratification of renal masses

    PubMed Central

    Blute, Michael L.; Drewry, Anna

    2015-01-01

    The increased use of abdominal imaging has led to identification of more patients with incidental renal masses, and renal mass biopsy (RMB) has become a popular method to evaluate unknown renal masses prior to definitive treatment. Pathologic data obtained from biopsy may be used to guide decisions for treatment and may include the presence or absence of malignant tumor, renal cell cancer subtype, tumor grade and the presence of other aggressive pathologic features. However, prior to using RMB for risk stratification, it is important to understand whether RMB findings are equivalent to pathologic analysis of surgical specimens and to identify any potential limitations of this approach. This review outlines the advantages and limitations of the current studies that evaluate RMB as a guide for treatment decision in patients with unknown renal masses. In multiple series, RMB has demonstrated low morbidity and a theoretical reduction in cost, if patients with benign tumors are identified from biopsy and can avoid subsequent treatment. However, when considering the routine use of RMB for risk stratification, it is important to note that biopsy may underestimate risk in some patients by undergrading, understaging or failing to identify aggressive tumor features. Future studies should focus on developing treatment algorithms that integrate RMB to identify the optimal use in risk stratification of patients with unknown renal masses. PMID:26425141

  15. Cardiac PET Perfusion: Prognosis, Risk Stratification, Clinical Management

    PubMed Central

    Dorbala, Sharmila; Di Carli, Marcelo F.

    2014-01-01

    Myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) with positron emission tomography (PET) has expanded significantly over the past decade. With the wider availability of PET scanners and the routine use of quantitative blood flow imaging, the clinical use of PET MPI is expected to increase further. PET MPI is a powerful tool to identify risk, to quantify risk, and to guide therapy in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). A large body of evidence supports the prognostic value of PET MPI and ejection fraction in intermediate to high risk subjects, in women, in obese individuals and in post coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) individuals. A normal perfusion study indicates low risk (< 1% annualized rate of cardiac events of cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction), while an abnormal study indicates high risk. With accurate risk stratification, high quality images, and quantitation PET MPI may transform the management of patients with known or suspected CAD. PMID:25234079

  16. Quantitative risk stratification of oral leukoplakia with exfoliative cytology.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yao; Li, Jianying; Liu, Xiaoyong; Liu, Xudong; Khawar, Waqaar; Zhang, Xinyan; Wang, Fan; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Test outcome is reported as "negative", "atypical" (defined as abnormal epithelial changes of uncertain diagnostic significance), and "positive" (defined as definitive cellular evidence of epithelial dysplasia or carcinoma). The major challenge is how to properly manage the "atypical" patients in order to diagnose OSCC early and prevent OSCC. In this study, we collected exfoliative cytology data, histopathology data, and clinical data of normal subjects (n=102), oral leukoplakia (OLK) patients (n=82), and OSCC patients (n=93), and developed a data analysis procedure for quantitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This procedure involving a step called expert-guided data transformation and reconstruction (EdTAR) which allows automatic data processing and reconstruction and reveals informative signals for subsequent risk stratification. Modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Among the several models tested using resampling methods for parameter pruning and performance evaluation, Support Vector Machine (SVM) was found to be optimal with a high sensitivity (median>0.98) and specificity (median>0.99). With the SVM model, we constructed an oral cancer risk index (OCRI) which may potentially guide clinical follow-up of OLK patients. One OLK patient with an initial OCRI of 0.88 developed OSCC after 40 months of follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed a statistical method for qualitative risk stratification of OLK patients. This method may potentially improve cost-effectiveness of clinical follow-up of OLK patients, and help design clinical chemoprevention trial for high-risk populations. PMID:25978541

  17. QT variability improves risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Fischer, C; Seeck, A; Schroeder, R; Goernig, M; Schirdewan, A; Figulla, H R; Baumert, M; Voss, A

    2015-04-01

    Recently it could be demonstrated that systolic and diastolic blood pressure variability (BPV) as well as segmented Poincare plot analysis (SPPA) contribute to risk stratification in patients suffering from dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). The aim of this study was to improve the risk stratification applying a multivariate technique including QT variability (QTV). We enrolled and significantly separated 56 low risk and 13 high risk DCM patients by nearly all applied BPV and QTV methods, but not with traditional heart rate variability analysis. The optimum set of two indices calculating the multivariate discriminate analysis (DA) included one BPV index calculated by symbolic dynamics method (DBP(Shannon)) and one index calculated from QTV (QTV(log)) achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 92%, sensitivity of 92.3% and specificity of 89.3%. Performing only electrocardiogram analysis, the optimum multivariate approach including indices from segmented Poincaré plot analysis and QTV still achieved a remarkable AUC of 88.3%. Increasing the number of indices for multivariate DA up to three, we achieved an AUC of 95.7%, sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 85.7% including one clinical, one BPV and one QTV index. Summarizing, we identified DCM patients with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death applying QTV analysis in a multivariate approach. PMID:25799313

  18. [Lung cancer screening - risk stratification : Who should undergo screening?].

    PubMed

    Beer, L; Prosch, H

    2016-09-01

    Lung cancer is one of the leading causes of deaths in Europa and the USA. In approximately 75 % of lung cancer patients, bronchogenic carcinoma is detected at an advanced tumor stage; therefore, therapeutic options which aim at curing the disease in these patients are limited and treatment is mostly palliative. A relatively good prognosis is reserved for the minority of patients where the tumor is detected at an early stage and treatment is potentially curative. For this reason, early diagnosis of lung cancer could save lives. Retrospective analyses of the US national lung screening trial (NLST) showed that especially high-risk populations (e. g. higher age, positive smoking history, overweight and a positive family history for lung cancer) benefit most from lung cancer screening. Thus, the effectiveness of computed tomography (CT) screening can be improved by focusing on high-risk populations. This review article summarizes the risk stratification models of the large European and American screening studies and discusses possible future biomarkers for risk stratification. PMID:27495786

  19. Risk stratification for wilms tumor: current approach and future directions.

    PubMed

    Dome, Jeffrey S; Perlman, Elizabeth J; Graf, Norbert

    2014-01-01

    Wilms tumor, or nephroblastoma, has provided a paradigm for progressive improvement in clinical outcomes achieved through serial cooperative group studies. With modern surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy approaches, the overall survival rate for patients with Wilms tumor has reached 90%. Remarkably, the increase in survival has been achieved with a reduction in therapy for most patient subgroups, leading not only to more survivors, but also to healthier survivors. A key contributor to improved outcomes has been the development of clinical and biologic prognostic markers that have enabled risk-directed therapy. Whereas the early cooperative group studies used only tumor stage for risk stratification, current Children's Oncology Group (COG) and International Society of Pediatric Oncology (SIOP) protocols employ a multitude of prognostic factors to guide therapy. Prognostic factors used in the current generation of COG studies include stage, histology, patient age, tumor weight, completeness of lung nodule response, and loss of heterozygosity at chromosomes 1p and 16q. Future COG studies seek to incorporate gain of chromosome 1q and methylation pattern of chromosome 11p15 into the risk classification schema. Prognostic factors used in the current SIOP studies include stage, histology, tumor volume, and responsiveness to therapy. Future SIOP studies seek to incorporate absolute blastemal volume and novel molecular markers for resistant blastema into the risk stratification approach. PMID:24857079

  20. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  1. Rationale and design of three observational, prospective cohort studies including biobanking to evaluate and improve diagnostics, management strategies and risk stratification in venous thromboembolism: the VTEval Project

    PubMed Central

    Frank, Bernd; Ariza, Liana; Lamparter, Heidrun; Grossmann, Vera; Prochaska, Jürgen H; Ullmann, Alexander; Kindler, Florentina; Weisser, Gerhard; Walter, Ulrich; Lackner, Karl J; Espinola-Klein, Christine; Münzel, Thomas; Konstantinides, Stavros V; Wild, Philipp S

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Venous thromboembolism (VTE) with its two manifestations deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) is a major public health problem. The VTEval Project aims to investigate numerous research questions on diagnosis, clinical management, treatment and prognosis of VTE, which have remained uncertain to date. Methods and analysis The VTEval Project consists of three observational, prospective cohort studies on VTE comprising cohorts of individuals with a clinical suspicion of acute PE (with or without DVT), with a clinical suspicion of acute DVT (without symptomatic PE) and with an incidental diagnosis of VTE (PE or DVT). The VTEval Project expects to enrol a total of approximately 2000 individuals with subsequent active and passive follow-up investigations over a time period of 5 years per participant. Time points for active follow-up investigations are at months 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 after diagnosis (depending on the disease cohort); passive follow-up investigations via registry offices and the cancer registry are performed 48 and 60 months after diagnosis for all participants. Primary short-term outcome is defined by overall mortality (PE-related death and all other causes of death), primary long-term outcome by symptomatic VTE (PE-related death, recurrence of non-fatal PE or DVT). The VTEval Project includes three ‘all-comer’ studies and involves the standardised acquisition of high-quality data, covering the systematic assessment of VTE including symptoms, risk profile, psychosocial, environmental and lifestyle factors as well as clinical and subclinical disease, and it builds up a large state-of-the-art biorepository containing various materials from serial blood samplings. Ethics and dissemination The VTEval Project has been approved by the local data safety commissioner and the responsible ethics committee (reference no. 837.320.12 (8421-F)). Trial results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and

  2. Noninvasive Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinoma using Quantitative Computed Tomography

    PubMed Central

    Raghunath, Sushravya; Maldonado, Fabien; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; DePew, Zackary S.; Bartholmai, Brian J.; Peikert, Tobias; Robb, Richard A.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the US and worldwide. Adenocarcinoma is the most common type of lung cancer and encompasses lesions with widely variable clinical outcomes. In the absence of noninvasive risk stratification, individualized patient management remains challenging. Consequently a subgroup of pulmonary nodules of the lung adenocarcinoma spectrum is likely treated more aggressively than necessary. Methods Consecutive patients with surgically resected pulmonary nodules of the lung adenocarcinoma spectrum (lesion size ≤ 3 cm, 2006–2009) and available pre-surgical high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) imaging were identified at Mayo Clinic Rochester. All cases were classified using an unbiased Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY) approach based on the quantification of pre-surgical HRCT characteristics. CANARY-based classification was independently correlated to postsurgical progression-free survival. Results CANARY analysis of 264 consecutive patients identified three distinct subgroups. Independent comparisons of 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) between these subgroups demonstrated statistically significant differences in 5-year DFS, 100%, 72.7% and 51.4%, respectively (p = 0.0005). Conclusions Non-invasive CANARY based risk stratification identifies subgroups of patients with pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum characterized by distinct clinical outcomes. This technique may ultimately improve the current expert opinion-based approach to the management of these lesions by facilitating individualized patient management. PMID:25170645

  3. Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Risk Stratification by the ACC/AHA Lipid Guidelines, ATP III Guidelines, Coronary Calcium Scoring, and C-Reactive Protein, and a Global Treat-All Strategy: A Comparative--Effectiveness Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Galper, Benjamin Z.; Wang, Y. Claire; Einstein, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Several approaches have been proposed for risk-stratification and primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), but their comparative and cost-effectiveness is unknown. Methods We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to compare multiple approaches to the primary prevention of CHD in a simulated cohort of men aged 45–75 and women 55–75. Risk-stratification strategies included the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines on the treatment of blood cholesterol, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines, and approaches based on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and C-reactive protein (CRP). Additionally we assessed a treat-all strategy in which all individuals were prescribed either moderate-dose or high-dose statins and all males received low-dose aspirin. Outcome measures included CHD events, costs, medication-related side effects, radiation-attributable cancers, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) over a 30-year timeframe. Results Treat-all with high-dose statins dominated all other strategies for both men and women, gaining 15.7 million QALYs, preventing 7.3 million myocardial infarctions, and saving over $238 billion, compared to the status quo, far outweighing its associated adverse events including bleeding, hepatitis, myopathy, and new-onset diabetes. ACC/AHA guidelines were more cost-effective than ATP III guidelines for both men and women despite placing 8.7 million more people on statins. For women at low CHD risk, treat-all with high-dose statins was more likely to cause a statin-related adverse event than to prevent a CHD event. Conclusions Despite leading to a greater proportion of the population placed on statin therapy, the ACC/AHA guidelines are more cost-effective than ATP III. Even so, at generic prices, treating all men and women with statins and all men with low-dose aspirin appears to be more cost-effective than all risk-stratification approaches for the

  4. Phenotypes of prediabetes and stratification of cardiometabolic risk.

    PubMed

    Stefan, Norbert; Fritsche, Andreas; Schick, Fritz; Häring, Hans-Ulrich

    2016-09-01

    Prediabetes is associated with increased risks of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, dementia, and cancer, and its prevalence is increasing worldwide. Lifestyle and pharmacological interventions in people with prediabetes can prevent the development of diabetes and possibly cardiovascular disease. However, prediabetes is a highly heterogeneous metabolic state, both with respect to its pathogenesis and prediction of disease. Improved understanding of these features and precise phenotyping of prediabetes could help to improve stratification of disease risk. In this Personal View, we focus on the extreme metabolic phenotypes of metabolically healthy obesity and metabolically unhealthy normal weight, insulin secretion failure, insulin resistance, visceral obesity, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. We present new analyses aimed at improving characterisation of phenotypes in lean, overweight, and obese people with prediabetes. We discuss evidence from lifestyle intervention studies to explore whether these phenotypes can also be used for individualised prediction and prevention of cardiometabolic diseases. PMID:27185609

  5. A Model for Opioid Risk Stratification: Assessing the Psychosocial Components of Orofacial Pain.

    PubMed

    Kulich, Ronald J; Backstrom, Jordan; Brownstein, Jennifer; Finkelman, Matthew; Dhadwal, Shuchi; DiBennedetto, David

    2016-08-01

    This article describes a model of opiate risk stratification with a special focus on dentistry and oral surgery. A brief overview covers the scope of the US opioid abuse and misuse epidemic, and the role of the dentist in mitigating the problems of diversion and misuse of controlled substances. The expanding role of dentistry is summarized. An assessment outlines gathering critical risk information, screening questionnaires, access to state prescription monitoring programs, and communication with cotreating providers. Special populations are discussed. Barriers and possible solutions for effective implementation of these strategies are summarized. PMID:27475506

  6. Bleeding risk stratification in an era of aggressive management of acute coronary syndromes

    PubMed Central

    Abu-Assi, Emad; Raposeiras-Roubín, Sergio; García-Acuña, José María; González-Juanatey, José Ramón

    2014-01-01

    Major bleeding is currently one of the most common non-cardiac complications observed in the treatment of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Hemorrhagic complications occur with a frequency of 1% to 10% during treatment for ACS. In fact, bleeding events are the most common extrinsic complication associated with ACS therapy. The identification of clinical characteristics and particularities of the antithrombin therapy associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic complications would make it possible to adopt prevention strategies, especially among those exposed to greater risk. The international societies of cardiology renewed emphasis on bleeding risk stratification in order to decide strategy and therapy for patients with ACS. With this review, we performed an update about the ACS bleeding risk scores most frequently used in daily clinical practice. PMID:25429326

  7. Left Ventricular Diameter and Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death

    PubMed Central

    Narayanan, Kumar; Reinier, Kyndaron; Teodorescu, Carmen; Uy‐Evanado, Audrey; Aleong, Ryan; Chugh, Harpriya; Nichols, Gregory A.; Gunson, Karen; London, Barry; Jui, Jonathan; Chugh, Sumeet S.

    2014-01-01

    Background Left ventricular (LV) diameter is routinely measured on the echocardiogram but has not been jointly evaluated with the ejection fraction (EF) for risk stratification of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Methods and Results From a large ongoing community‐based study of SCD (The Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study; population ≈1 million), SCD cases were compared with geographic controls. LVEF and LV diameter, measured using the LV internal dimension in diastole (categorized as normal, mild, moderate, or severe dilatation using American Society of Echocardiography definitions) were assessed from echocardiograms prior but unrelated to the SCD event. Cases (n=418; 69.5±13.8 years), compared with controls (n=329; 67.7±11.9 years), more commonly had severe LV dysfunction (EF ≤35%; 30.5% versus 18.8%; P<0.01) and larger LV diameter (52.2±10.5 mm versus 49.7±7.9 mm; P<0.01). Moderate or severe LV dilatation (16.3% versus 8.2%; P=0.001) and severe LV dilatation (8.1% versus 2.1%; P<0.001) were significantly more frequent in cases. In multivariable analysis, severe LV dilatation was an independent predictor of SCD (odds ratio 2.5 [95% CI 1.03 to 5.9]; P=0.04). In addition, subjects with both EF ≤35% and severe LV dilatation had higher odds for SCD compared with those with low EF only (odds ratio 3.8 [95% CI 1.5 to 10.2] for both versus 1.7 [95% CI 1.2 to 2.5] for low EF only), suggesting that severe LV dilatation additively increased SCD risk. Conclusion LV diameter may contribute to risk stratification for SCD independent of the LVEF. This readily available echocardiographic measure warrants further prospective evaluation. PMID:25227407

  8. Novel Molecular Imaging Approaches to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Risk Stratification.

    PubMed

    Toczek, Jakub; Meadows, Judith L; Sadeghi, Mehran M

    2016-01-01

    Selection of patients for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair is currently based on aneurysm size, growth rate, and symptoms. Molecular imaging of biological processes associated with aneurysm growth and rupture, for example, inflammation and matrix remodeling, could improve patient risk stratification and lead to a reduction in abdominal aortic aneurysm morbidity and mortality. (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography and ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide magnetic resonance imaging are 2 novel approaches to abdominal aortic aneurysm imaging evaluated in clinical trials. A variety of other tracers, including those that target inflammatory cells and proteolytic enzymes (eg, integrin αvβ3 and matrix metalloproteinases), have proven effective in preclinical models of abdominal aortic aneurysm and show great potential for clinical translation. PMID:26763279

  9. Prostate cancer risk stratification with magnetic resonance imaging.

    PubMed

    Felker, Ely R; Margolis, Daniel J; Nassiri, Nima; Marks, Leonard S

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) has shown promise for prostate cancer (PCa) risk stratification. mpMRI, often followed by targeted biopsy, can be used to confirm low-grade disease before enrollment in active surveillance. In patients with intermediate or high-risk PCa, mpMRI can be used to inform surgical management. mpMRI has sensitivity of 44% to 87% for detection of clinically significant PCa and negative predictive value of 63% to 98% for exclusion of significant disease. In addition to tumor identification, mpMRI has also been shown to contribute significant incremental value to currently used clinical nomograms for predicting extraprostatic extension. In combination with conventional clinical criteria, accuracy of mpMRI for prediction of extraprostatic extension ranges from 92% to 94%, significantly higher than that achieved with clinical criteria alone. Supplemental sequences, such as diffusion-weighted imaging and dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging, allow quantitative evaluation of cancer-suspicious regions. Apparent diffusion coefficient appears to be an independent predictor of PCa aggressiveness. Addition of apparent diffusion coefficient to Epstein criteria may improve sensitivity for detection of significant PCa by as much as 16%. Limitations of mpMRI include variability in reporting, underestimation of PCa volume and failure to detect clinically significant disease in a small but significant number of cases. PMID:27040381

  10. Risk stratification after acute myocardial infarction in the reperfusion era.

    PubMed

    Michaels, A D; Goldschlager, N

    2000-01-01

    Historically, risk stratification for survivors of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has centered on 3 principles: assessment of left ventricular function, detection of residual myocardial ischemia, and estimation of the risk for sudden cardiac death. Although these factors still have important prognostic implications for these patients, our ability to predict adverse cardiac events has significantly improved over the last several years. Recent studies have identified powerful predictors of adverse cardiac events available from the patient history, physical examination, initial electrocardiogram, and blood testing early in the evaluation of patients with AMI. Numerous studies performed in patients receiving early reperfusion therapy with either thrombolysis or primary angioplasty have emphasized the importance of a patent infarct related artery for long-term survival. The predictive value of a variety of noninvasive and invasive tests to predict myocardial electrical instability have been under active investigation in patients receiving early reperfusion therapy. The current understanding of the clinically important predictors of clinical outcomes in survivors of AMI is reviewed in this article. PMID:10661780

  11. Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: Risk Stratification and Indications for Defibrillator Therapy.

    PubMed

    Zorzi, Alessandro; Rigato, Ilaria; Bauce, Barbara; Pilichou, Kalliopi; Basso, Cristina; Thiene, Gaetano; Iliceto, Sabino; Corrado, Domenico

    2016-06-01

    Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a genetically determined disease which predisposes to life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. The main goal of ARVC therapy is prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is the most effective therapy for interruption of potentially lethal ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Despite its life-saving potential, ICD implantation is associated with a high rate of complications and significant impact on quality of life. Accurate risk stratification is needed to identify individuals who most benefit from the therapy. While there is general agreement that patients with a history of cardiac arrest or hemodynamically unstable ventricular tachycardia are at high risk of SCD and needs an ICD, indications for primary prevention remain a matter of debate. The article reviews the available scientific evidence and guidelines that may help to stratify the arrhythmic risk of ARVC patients and guide ICD implantation. Other therapeutic strategies, either alternative or additional to ICD, will be also addressed. PMID:27147509

  12. Cardiac risk stratification in cardiac rehabilitation programs: a review of protocols

    PubMed Central

    da Silva, Anne Kastelianne França; Barbosa, Marianne Penachini da Costa de Rezende; Bernardo, Aline Fernanda Barbosa; Vanderlei, Franciele Marques; Pacagnelli, Francis Lopes; Vanderlei, Luiz Carlos Marques

    2014-01-01

    Objective Gather and describe general characteristics of different protocols of risk stratification for cardiac patients undergoing exercise. Methods We conducted searches in LILACS, IBECS, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and SciELO electronic databases, using the following descriptors: Cardiovascular Disease, Rehabilitation Centers, Practice Guideline, Exercise and Risk Stratification in the past 20 years. Results Were selected eight studies addressing methods of risk stratification in patients undergoing exercise. Conclusion None of the methods described could cover every situation the patient can be subjected to; however, they are essential to exercise prescription. PMID:25140477

  13. Refining Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: Additional Genes, Additional Information.

    PubMed

    Kurian, Allison W; Antoniou, Antonis C; Domchek, Susan M

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances in genomic technology have enabled far more rapid, less expensive sequencing of multiple genes than was possible only a few years ago. Advances in bioinformatics also facilitate the interpretation of large amounts of genomic data. New strategies for cancer genetic risk assessment include multiplex sequencing panels of 5 to more than 100 genes (in which rare mutations are often associated with at least two times the average risk of developing breast cancer) and panels of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), combinations of which are generally associated with more modest cancer risks (more than twofold). Although these new multiple-gene panel tests are used in oncology practice, questions remain about the clinical validity and the clinical utility of their results. To translate this increasingly complex genetic information for clinical use, cancer risk prediction tools are under development that consider the joint effects of all susceptibility genes, together with other established breast cancer risk factors. Risk-adapted screening and prevention protocols are underway, with ongoing refinement as genetic knowledge grows. Priority areas for future research include the clinical validity and clinical utility of emerging genetic tests; the accuracy of developing cancer risk prediction models; and the long-term outcomes of risk-adapted screening and prevention protocols, in terms of patients' experiences and survival. PMID:27249685

  14. Early risk stratification in pediatric type 1 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Broe, Rebecca

    2015-03-01

    of early glycemic control. Identifying high-risk patients at a very early stage is not only desired for prevention of diabetic retinopathy - neuropathy and nephropathy similarly remain frequent in type 1 diabetes. Early risk stratification will allow for timely implementation of effective interventions and for individualized screening and diabetes care. The second and third studies of this thesis provide the longest prospective studies to date on both retinal vessel calibers and retinal fractal dimensions and their predictive value on diabetic microvascular complications. Semi-automated computer software has been developed to measure smaller changes in the retinal vessels on retinal photographs. Two of the first parameters to be reliably estimated by these programs were retinal vessel calibers and retinal vascular fractal dimensions (a quantitative measure on vascular complexity). There is very limited knowledge on their predictive value on diabetic complications thus far. In the second and third study, a consistent relation between narrower retinal arteriolar calibers, wider retinal venular calibers, lower fractal dimensions and the 16-year incidences of diabetic neuropathy, nephropathy and proliferative retinopathy was found. This has never been shown before. The results on vessel analyzes provides indications of a common pathogenic pathway for diabetic microvascular complications and therefore a possibility of universal risk estimation for development of neuropathy, nephropathy and retinopathy in type 1 diabetes. PMID:25703648

  15. A new method for IVUS-based coronary artery disease risk stratification: A link between coronary & carotid ultrasound plaque burdens.

    PubMed

    Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Shukla, Devarshi; Londhe, Narendra D; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Banchhor, Sumit K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

    2016-02-01

    Interventional cardiologists have a deep interest in risk stratification prior to stenting and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures. Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) is most commonly adapted for screening, but current tools lack the ability for risk stratification based on grayscale plaque morphology. Our hypothesis is based on the genetic makeup of the atherosclerosis disease, that there is evidence of a link between coronary atherosclerosis disease and carotid plaque built up. This novel idea is explored in this study for coronary risk assessment and its classification of patients between high risk and low risk. This paper presents a strategy for coronary risk assessment by combining the IVUS grayscale plaque morphology and carotid B-mode ultrasound carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) - a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. Support vector machine (SVM) learning paradigm is adapted for risk stratification, where both the learning and testing phases use tissue characteristics derived from six feature combinational spaces, which are then used by the SVM classifier with five different kernels sets. These six feature combinational spaces are designed using 56 novel feature sets. K-fold cross validation protocol with 10 trials per fold is used for optimization of best SVM-kernel and best feature combination set. IRB approved coronary IVUS and carotid B-mode ultrasound were jointly collected on 15 patients (2 days apart) via: (a) 40MHz catheter utilizing iMap (Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA, USA) with 2865 frames per patient (42,975 frames) and (b) linear probe B-mode carotid ultrasound (Toshiba scanner, Japan). Using the above protocol, the system shows the classification accuracy of 94.95% and AUC of 0.95 using optimized feature combination. This is the first system of its kind for risk stratification as a screening tool to prevent excessive cost burden and better patients' cardiovascular disease management, while validating our two hypotheses

  16. Performance And Agreement Of Risk Stratification Instruments For Postoperative Delirium In Persons Aged 50 Years Or Older

    PubMed Central

    Jansen, Carolien J.; Absalom, Anthony R.; de Bock, Geertruida H.; van Leeuwen, Barbara L.; Izaks, Gerbrand J.

    2014-01-01

    Several risk stratification instruments for postoperative delirium in older people have been developed because early interventions may prevent delirium. We investigated the performance and agreement of nine commonly used risk stratification instruments in an independent validation cohort of consecutive elective and emergency surgical patients aged ≥50 years with ≥1 risk factor for postoperative delirium. Data was collected prospectively. Delirium was diagnosed according to DSM-IV-TR criteria. The observed incidence of postoperative delirium was calculated per risk score per risk stratification instrument. In addition, the risk stratification instruments were compared in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and positive and negative predictive value. Finally, the positive agreement between the risk stratification instruments was calculated. When data required for an exact implementation of the original risk stratification instruments was not available, we used alternative data that was comparable. The study population included 292 patients: 60% men; mean age (SD), 66 (8) years; 90% elective surgery. The incidence of postoperative delirium was 9%. The maximum observed incidence per risk score was 50% (95%CI, 15–85%); for eight risk stratification instruments, the maximum observed incidence per risk score was ≤25%. The AUC (95%CI) for the risk stratification instruments varied between 0.50 (0.36–0.64) and 0.66 (0.48–0.83). No AUC was statistically significant from 0.50 (p≥0.11). Positive predictive values of the risk stratification instruments varied between 0–25%, negative predictive values between 89–95%. Positive agreement varied between 0–66%. No risk stratification instrument showed clearly superior performance. In conclusion, in this independent validation cohort, the performance and agreement of commonly used risk stratification instruments for postoperative delirium was poor. Although some caution is

  17. Risk stratification of thyroid nodules on ultrasonography with the French TI-RADS: description and reflections

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The widespread use of ultrasonography places it in a key position for use in the risk stratification of thyroid nodules. The French proposal is a five-tier system, our version of a thyroid imaging reporting and database system (TI-RADS), which includes a standardized vocabulary and report and a quantified risk assessment. It allows the selection of the nodules that should be referred for fine-needle aspiration biopsies. Effort should be directed towards merging the different risk stratification systems utilized around the world and testing this unified system with multi-center studies. PMID:26324117

  18. Risk stratification by treadmill testing in acute myocardial infarction following thrombolytic therapy.

    PubMed

    Banerjee, A; Debnath, N B; Roy, S; Banerjee, A; Maity, A K

    1998-02-01

    Survivors of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) should have risk stratification for assessment of their future risk of cardiovascular events. One of the important means of risk stratification is by treadmill test (TMT). Most of the algorithms for assessment were done in the prethrombolytic era. But in the post-thrombolytic era, risk stratification by TMT should be properly evaluated. Fifty males with confirmed AMI with age ranging from 38-62 years (mean 48 years) were tested with a symptom limited (Modified Bruce Protocol) TMT. The patients were followed up for a minimum of 6 months (range 6-10 months). Out of 50 patients, 38 reported for follow up. Among them 22 (Group A) had cardiac events and 16 (Group B) had no events. Among the patients (Group A), 6 had unstable angina, 7 had reinfarction, 2 had sudden death, 4 had coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and 3 had angioplasty. Comparison between the two groups, A and B in TMT parameters like ST segment depression > 2.5 mm (12 vs 9), no. of leads where ST depression occurred (66 vs 48) during exercise, mean work capacity (8.1 vs 7.9 mets), mean systolic blood pressure response were all statistically insignificant. Though TMT was believed to be a good prognostic indicator to assess further cardiac events after AMI, its efficacy in risk stratification after thrombolysis is yet to be determined. This study does not show its worth in post MI risk assessment. PMID:11273111

  19. The need for improved risk stratification in chronic critical limb ischemia.

    PubMed

    Chung, Jayer; Modrall, J Gregory; Valentine, R James

    2014-12-01

    Vascular surgeons are well acquainted with chronic critical limb ischemia (CLI), the most severe manifestation of peripheral arterial disease, with patients presenting with ischemic rest pain or ulcerations, or both. Epidemiologic data predict a burgeoning epidemic of CLI within the United States, commensurate with the increasing incidence and prevalence of atherosclerotic risk factors, especially age and diabetes. Untreated, the risk of major amputation (above the ankle) or death, or both, ranges between 20% and 40% at 1 year. Current open and endovascular therapies have imperfect results, diverse treatment options, and recommendations that are often conflicting and confuse physicians, industry, and patients alike. The best treatment options are ideally evaluated by prospective, randomized controlled trials. However, these have proven impractical in CLI because the rapid evolution of devices and techniques has outstripped the ability to measure outcomes and compare treatment options. Alternatively, risk-stratifying models have been proposed to allow physicians, patients, and industry to objectively evaluate new therapeutics and devices as they evolve. These models are developed from prospective cohorts to identify and quantify variables that can subsequently predict outcome in individual patients. The risk stratification models can also compare CLI outcomes between physicians and institutions, supporting quality assessments, and compensation decisions within Accountable Care Organizations under the Affordable Health Care Act (ACA). Widespread adoption of risk-stratification schemes has yet to occur, despite the critical need for such a tool in CLI, because present models lack optimal predictive ability and generalizability. The passage of the ACA amplifies the importance of developing an improved risk-stratification tool to ensure equitable quality assessments and compensation. This review presents current risk-stratification models for CLI with a summary of the

  20. Cardiovascular Disease Risk amongst African Black Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: The Need for Population Specific Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Solomon, Ahmed; Tsang, Linda; Woodiwiss, Angela J.; Millen, Aletta M. E.; Norton, Gavin R.; Dessein, Patrick H.

    2014-01-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) enhances the risk of cardiovascular disease to a similar extent as diabetes. Whereas atherogenesis remains poorly elucidated in RA, traditional and nontraditional risk factors associate similarly and additively with CVD in RA. Current recommendations on CVD risk stratification reportedly have important limitations. Further, reported data on CVD and its risk factors derive mostly from data obtained in the developed world. An earlier epidemiological health transition is intrinsic to persons living in rural areas and those undergoing urbanization. It is therefore conceivable that optimal CVD risk stratification differs amongst patients with RA from developing populations compared to those from developed populations. Herein, we briefly describe current CVD and its risk factor profiles in the African black population at large. Against this background, we review reported data on CVD risk and its potential stratification amongst African black compared to white patients with RA. Routinely assessed traditional and nontraditional CVD risk factors were consistently and independently related to atherosclerosis in African white but not black patients with RA. Circulating concentrations of novel CVD risk biomarkers including interleukin-6 and interleukin-5 adipokines were mostly similarly associated with both endothelial activation and atherosclerosis amongst African black and white RA patients. PMID:25157371

  1. The RAG Model: A New Paradigm for Genetic Risk Stratification in Multiple Myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Prideaux, Steven M.; Conway O'Brien, Emma; Chevassut, Timothy J.

    2014-01-01

    Molecular studies have shown that multiple myeloma is a highly genetically heterogonous disease which may manifest itself as any number of diverse subtypes each with variable clinicopathological features and outcomes. Given this genetic heterogeneity, a universal approach to treatment of myeloma is unlikely to be successful for all patients and instead we should strive for the goal of personalised therapy using rationally informed targeted strategies. Current DNA sequencing technologies allow for whole genome and exome analysis of patient myeloma samples that yield vast amounts of genetic data and provide a mutational overview of the disease. However, the clinical utility of this information currently lags far behind the sequencing technology which is increasingly being incorporated into clinical practice. This paper attempts to address this shortcoming by proposing a novel genetically based “traffic-light” risk stratification system for myeloma, termed the RAG (Red, Amber, Green) model, which represents a simplified concept of how complex genetic data may be compressed into an aggregate risk score. The model aims to incorporate all known clinically important trisomies, translocations, and mutations in myeloma and utilise these to produce a score between 1.0 and 3.0 that can be incorporated into diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment algorithms for the patient. PMID:25295194

  2. The RAG Model: A New Paradigm for Genetic Risk Stratification in Multiple Myeloma.

    PubMed

    Prideaux, Steven M; Conway O'Brien, Emma; Chevassut, Timothy J

    2014-01-01

    Molecular studies have shown that multiple myeloma is a highly genetically heterogonous disease which may manifest itself as any number of diverse subtypes each with variable clinicopathological features and outcomes. Given this genetic heterogeneity, a universal approach to treatment of myeloma is unlikely to be successful for all patients and instead we should strive for the goal of personalised therapy using rationally informed targeted strategies. Current DNA sequencing technologies allow for whole genome and exome analysis of patient myeloma samples that yield vast amounts of genetic data and provide a mutational overview of the disease. However, the clinical utility of this information currently lags far behind the sequencing technology which is increasingly being incorporated into clinical practice. This paper attempts to address this shortcoming by proposing a novel genetically based "traffic-light" risk stratification system for myeloma, termed the RAG (Red, Amber, Green) model, which represents a simplified concept of how complex genetic data may be compressed into an aggregate risk score. The model aims to incorporate all known clinically important trisomies, translocations, and mutations in myeloma and utilise these to produce a score between 1.0 and 3.0 that can be incorporated into diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment algorithms for the patient. PMID:25295194

  3. Risk stratification of Ramadan fasting in person with diabetes.

    PubMed

    AlArouj, Monira

    2015-05-01

    The world population comprises of 23% Muslims. Ramadan is the holy month of the Islamic year during which all healthy Muslims observe fasts. Although children and sick people are exempted from fasting but many of this group, want to observe fasts despite the medical advice against it. This includes a subset of people with diabetes which carries a considerable risk. Hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia are among the main hazards. Majority of Muslims with diabetes can fast safely during Ramadan; However some are placed at a greater risk. Pre-Ramadan risk assessment, structured education and selection of appropriate medication has shown to minimize the risks associated with fasting among people with diabetes. PMID:26013777

  4. IMWG consensus on risk stratification in multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Chng, W J; Dispenzieri, A; Chim, C-S; Fonseca, R; Goldschmidt, H; Lentzsch, S; Munshi, N; Palumbo, A; Miguel, J S; Sonneveld, P; Cavo, M; Usmani, S; Durie, B G M; Avet-Loiseau, H

    2014-02-01

    Multiple myeloma is characterized by underlying clinical and biological heterogeneity, which translates to variable response to treatment and outcome. With the recent increase in treatment armamentarium and the projected further increase in approved therapeutic agents in the coming years, the issue of having some mechanism to dissect this heterogeneity and rationally apply treatment is coming to the fore. A number of robustly validated prognostic markers have been identified and the use of these markers in stratifying patients into different risk groups has been proposed. In this consensus statement, the International Myeloma Working Group propose well-defined and easily applicable risk categories based on current available information and suggests the use of this set of prognostic factors as gold standards in all clinical trials and form the basis of subsequent development of more complex prognostic system or better prognostic factors. At the same time, these risk categories serve as a framework to rationalize the use of therapies. PMID:23974982

  5. Delirium risk stratification in consecutive unselected admissions to acute medicine: validation of externally derived risk scores

    PubMed Central

    Pendlebury, Sarah T.; Lovett, Nicola; Smith, Sarah C.; Cornish, Emily; Mehta, Ziyah; Rothwell, Peter M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: reliable delirium risk stratification will aid recognition, anticipation and prevention and will facilitate targeting of resources in clinical practice as well as identification of at-risk patients for research. Delirium risk scores have been derived for acute medicine, but none has been prospectively validated in external cohorts. We therefore aimed to determine the reliability of externally derived risk scores in a consecutive cohort of older acute medicine patients. Methods: consecutive patients aged ≥65 over two 8-week periods (2010, 2012) were screened prospectively for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), and delirium was diagnosed using the DSM IV criteria. The reliability of existing delirium risk scores derived in acute medicine cohorts and simplified for use in routine clinical practice (USA, n = 2; Spain, n = 1; Indonesia, n = 1) was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Delirium was defined as prevalent (on admission), incident (occurring during admission) and any (prevalent + incident) delirium. Results: among 308 consecutive patients aged ≥65 (mean age/SD = 81/8 years, 164 (54%) female), existing delirium risk scores had AUCs for delirium similar to those reported in their original internal validations ranging from 0.69 to 0.76 for any delirium and 0.73 to 0.83 for incident delirium. All scores performed better than chance but no one score was clearly superior. Conclusions: externally derived delirium risk scores performed well in our independent acute medicine population with reliability unaffected by simplification and might therefore facilitate targeting of multicomponent interventions in routine clinical practice. PMID:26764396

  6. Adrenomedullin for Risk Stratification of Emergency Patients With Nonspecific Complaints

    PubMed Central

    Nickel, Christian Hans; Messmer, Anna Sarah; Ghanim, Leyla; Ilsemann-Karakoumis, Julia; Giersdorf, Sven; Hertel, Sabine; Ernst, Susanne; Geigy, Nicolas; Bingisser, Roland

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Patients with nonspecific complaints (NSC) presenting to the emergency department (ED) are at risk of life-threatening conditions. New stress biomarkers such as the midregional portion of adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) promise to support decision-making. This study tested the following hypotheses: biomarker-assisted disposition of patients with NSC will not increase mortality. Second, discharge from the ED will increase if clinical risk assessment is combined with low MR-proADM levels. Third, inappropriate disposition to a lower level of care will decrease, if clinical assessment is combined with high MR-proADM levels, and fourth that this algorithm is feasible in the ED setting. Prospective, multicenter, randomized, controlled interventional feasibility study with a 30-day follow-up, including patients with NSC. Patients were randomly assigned to either the standard group (decision-making solely based on clinical assessment) or the Novum group (biomarker-assisted). Regarding disposition, patients were assigned to 1 of 3 risk classes: high-risk (admission to hospital), intermediate risk (community geriatric hospital), and low-risk patients (discharge). In the Novum group, in addition to clinical risk assessment, the information of the MR-proADM level was used. Unless there were overruling criteria, patients were transferred or discharged according to the risk assessment. Primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were comparisons of patient disposition and related mortality rates, ED, and hospital length of stay and readmission. The final study cohort consisted of 398 patients (210 in the Standard group and 188 in the Novum group). Overruling, that is, disposition not according to the result of the proposed algorithm occurred in 51 cases. Baseline characteristics between Standard and Novum groups were similar. The mortality rate in the Novum group was 4.3%, as compared to the Standard group mortality of 6.2%, which was not significantly

  7. Improving Clinical Risk Stratification at Diagnosis in Primary Prostate Cancer: A Prognostic Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Wright, Karen A.; Muir, Kenneth R.; Gavin, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Over 80% of the nearly 1 million men diagnosed with prostate cancer annually worldwide present with localised or locally advanced non-metastatic disease. Risk stratification is the cornerstone for clinical decision making and treatment selection for these men. The most widely applied stratification systems use presenting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, biopsy Gleason grade, and clinical stage to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk. There is, however, significant heterogeneity in outcomes within these standard groupings. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) has recently adopted a prognosis-based pathological classification that has yet to be included within a risk stratification system. Here we developed and tested a new stratification system based on the number of individual risk factors and incorporating the new ISUP prognostic score. Methods and Findings Diagnostic clinicopathological data from 10,139 men with non-metastatic prostate cancer were available for this study from the Public Health England National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office. This cohort was divided into a training set (n = 6,026; 1,557 total deaths, with 462 from prostate cancer) and a testing set (n = 4,113; 1,053 total deaths, with 327 from prostate cancer). The median follow-up was 6.9 y, and the primary outcome measure was prostate-cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). An external validation cohort (n = 1,706) was also used. Patients were first categorised as low, intermediate, or high risk using the current three-stratum stratification system endorsed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. The variables used to define the groups (PSA concentration, Gleason grading, and clinical stage) were then used to sub-stratify within each risk category by testing the individual and then combined number of risk factors. In addition, we incorporated the new ISUP prognostic score as a discriminator

  8. Risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases: Opportunities for clinicians and trialists.

    PubMed

    Trivedi, Palak J; Corpechot, Christophe; Pares, Albert; Hirschfield, Gideon M

    2016-02-01

    Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are infrequent autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases, that disproportionate to their incidence and prevalence, remain very important causes of morbidity and mortality for patients with liver disease. Mechanistic insights spanning genetic risks and biological pathways to liver injury and fibrosis have led to a renewed interest in developing therapies beyond ursodeoxycholic acid that are aimed at both slowing disease course and improving quality of life. International cohort studies have facilitated a much greater understanding of disease heterogeneity, and in so doing highlight the opportunity to provide patients with a more individualized assessment of their risk of progressive liver disease, based on clinical, laboratory, or imaging findings. This has led to a new approach to patient care that focuses on risk stratification (both high and low risk); and furthermore allows such stratification tools to help identify patient subgroups at greatest potential benefit from inclusion in clinical trials. In this article, we review the applicability and validity of risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver disease, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of current and emergent approaches. (Hepatology 2016;63:644-659). PMID:26290473

  9. Risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases: Opportunities for clinicians and trialists

    PubMed Central

    Trivedi, Palak J.; Corpechot, Christophe; Pares, Albert

    2015-01-01

    Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are infrequent autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases, that disproportionate to their incidence and prevalence, remain very important causes of morbidity and mortality for patients with liver disease. Mechanistic insights spanning genetic risks and biological pathways to liver injury and fibrosis have led to a renewed interest in developing therapies beyond ursodeoxycholic acid that are aimed at both slowing disease course and improving quality of life. International cohort studies have facilitated a much greater understanding of disease heterogeneity, and in so doing highlight the opportunity to provide patients with a more individualized assessment of their risk of progressive liver disease, based on clinical, laboratory, or imaging findings. This has led to a new approach to patient care that focuses on risk stratification (both high and low risk); and furthermore allows such stratification tools to help identify patient subgroups at greatest potential benefit from inclusion in clinical trials. In this article, we review the applicability and validity of risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver disease, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of current and emergent approaches. (Hepatology 2016;63:644–659) PMID:26290473

  10. Effect of carotid atherosclerosis screening on risk stratification during primary cardiovascular disease prevention.

    PubMed

    Bard, Robert L; Kalsi, Henna; Rubenfire, Melvyn; Wakefield, Thomas; Fex, Beverly; Rajagopalan, Sanjay; Brook, Robert D

    2004-04-15

    We investigated the effect that carotid plaque area (CPA) and intima media thickness (IMT) measurements have on risk stratification in 95 patients with intermediate Framingham scores (6% to 19%). The risk status of each patient was adjusted to be low, intermediate, or high based on the results of carotid ultrasound. After carotid testing, 44% (IMT) and 45% (CPA) of the intermediate-risk patients were stratified as low risk, and 22% (IMT) and 40% (CPA) were stratified as high risk. Using the threshold values derived from our laboratory, 28% (IMT) and 45% (CPA) of patients were stratified as low risk, and 35% (IMT) and 27% (CPA) were identified as high risk. These tests adjust the risk strata of >/=63% of patients deemed as having intermediate risk by Framingham scores. PMID:15081449

  11. Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

    PubMed Central

    Schuetz, Philipp; Huber, Andreas; Müller, Beat; Maisano, Francesco; Taramasso, Maurizio; Moarof, Igal; Obeid, Slayman; Stähli, Barbara E.; Cahenzly, Martin; Binder, Ronald K.; Liebetrau, Christoph; Möllmann, Helge; Kim, Won-Keun; Hamm, Christian; Lüscher, Thomas F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population. Objectives We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population. Methods We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%). Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l) had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0–26.0, P < 0.01), whereas patients with EuroSCORE II scores above the 75th percentile (> 6.8) only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8–5.6, P = 0.13). The Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45–0.82) for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–0.92, P = 0.01). In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1–31.3), P <0.01) and improved the model’s net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28–1.59). These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort. Conclusions Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis. PMID

  12. T Wave Alternans And Ventricular Tachyarrhythmia Risk Stratification: A Review

    PubMed Central

    Takagi, Masahiko; Yoshikawa, Junichi

    2003-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is one of the leading causes of mortality in industrialized countries. Thus, identifying patients at high risk of SCD is an important goal. T wave alternans (TWA) is a new method for identifying patients with lethal ventricular tachyarrhythmias, and is dependent on heart rate. The maximal predictive accuracy is achieved at heart rates between 100 and 120 bpm, so that TWA is usually measured during exercise, phamacological stress, or atrial pacing. It has been shown that TWA has high sensitivity and negative predictive value for predicting SCD after myocardial infarction and is also useful for predicting SCD in patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy. Although the implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is now the primary therapy for preventing SCD, it is difficult to identify those patients who are susceptible to lethal ventricular tachyarrhythmias for primary prevention. In the prediction of SCD, TWA can be used as a screening test of appropriate patients for further electrophysiological examination and therapy. PMID:16943959

  13. Novel biomarkers for risk stratification and identification of life-threatening cardiovascular disease: troponin and beyond.

    PubMed

    Razzouk, Louai; Fusaro, Mario; Esquitin, Ricardo

    2012-05-01

    Chest pain and other symptoms that may represent acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are common reasons for emergency department (ED) presentations, accounting for over six million visits annually in the United States [1]. Chest pain is the second most common ED presentation in the United States. Delays in diagnosis and inaccurate risk stratification of chest pain can result in serious morbidity and mortality from ACS, pulmonary embolism (PE), aortic dissection and other serious pathology. Because of the high morbidity, mortality, and liability issues associated with both recognized and unrecognized cardiovascular pathology, an aggressive approach to the evaluation of this patient group has become the standard of care. Clinical history, physical examination and electrocardiography have a limited diagnostic and prognostic role in the evaluation of possible ACS, PE, and aortic dissection, so clinicians continue to seek more accurate means of risk stratification. Recent advances in diagnostic imaging techniques particularly computed-tomography of the coronary arteries and aorta, have significantly improved our ability to diagnose life-threatening cardiovascular disease. In an era where health care utilization and cost are major considerations in how disease is managed, it is crucial to risk-stratify patients quickly and efficiently. Historically, biomarkers have played a significant role in the diagnosis and risk stratification of several cardiovascular disease states including myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and pulmonary embolus. Multiple biomarkers have shown early promise in answering questions of risk stratification and early diagnosis of cardiovascular pathology however many do not yet have wide clinical availability. The goal of this review will be to discuss these novel biomarkers and describe their potential role in direct patient care. PMID:22708908

  14. Evidence-based Guidelines for Precision Risk Stratification-Based Screening (PRSBS) for Colorectal Cancer: Lessons learned from the US Armed Forces: Consensus and Future Directions

    PubMed Central

    Avital, Itzhak; Langan, Russell C.; Summers, Thomas A.; Steele, Scott R.; Waldman, Scott A.; Backman, Vadim; Yee, Judy; Nissan, Aviram; Young, Patrick; Womeldorph, Craig; Mancusco, Paul; Mueller, Renee; Noto, Khristian; Grundfest, Warren; Bilchik, Anton J.; Protic, Mladjan; Daumer, Martin; Eberhardt, John; Man, Yan Gao; Brücher, Björn LDM; Stojadinovic, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death in the United States (U.S.), with estimates of 143,460 new cases and 51,690 deaths for the year 2012. Numerous organizations have published guidelines for CRC screening; however, these numerical estimates of incidence and disease-specific mortality have remained stable from years prior. Technological, genetic profiling, molecular and surgical advances in our modern era should allow us to improve risk stratification of patients with CRC and identify those who may benefit from preventive measures, early aggressive treatment, alternative treatment strategies, and/or frequent surveillance for the early detection of disease recurrence. To better negotiate future economic constraints and enhance patient outcomes, ultimately, we propose to apply the principals of personalized and precise cancer care to risk-stratify patients for CRC screening (Precision Risk Stratification-Based Screening, PRSBS). We believe that genetic, molecular, ethnic and socioeconomic disparities impact oncological outcomes in general, those related to CRC, in particular. This document highlights evidence-based screening recommendations and risk stratification methods in response to our CRC working group private-public consensus meeting held in March 2012. Our aim was to address how we could improve CRC risk stratification-based screening, and to provide a vision for the future to achieving superior survival rates for patients diagnosed with CRC. PMID:23459409

  15. Prognostic value of angiopoietin-2 for death risk stratification in patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Jary, Marine; Vernerey, Dewi; Lecomte, Thierry; Dobi, Erion; Ghiringhelli, François; Monnien, Franck; Godet, Yann; Kim, Stefano; Bouché, Olivier; Fratte, Serge; Gonçalves, Anthony; Leger, Julie; Queiroz, Lise; Adotevi, Olivier; Bonnetain, Franck; Borg, Christophe

    2015-01-01

    Background Baseline prognostic biomarkers stratifying treatment strategies in first-line metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) are lacking. Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) is proposed as a potential biomarker in several cancers. We therefore decided to establish the additional prognostic value of Ang-2 for overall survival (OS) in first-line mCRC patients. Methods We enrolled 177 patients treated with a bevacizumab containing chemotherapy in two prospective phase II clinical trials. Patient plasma samples were collected at baseline. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were used to measure Ang-2. Results The multivariable Cox model identified increased LDH (HR=1.60, 95%CI: 1.04–2.45, p=0.03) and Ang-2 log-transformation level (HR=1.59, 95%CI: 1.14–2.21, p=0.0065) as two significant independent OS prognostic factors. It exhibited good calibration (p=0.8) and discrimination (C-index: 0.64; 95%CI: 0.58–0.68). Ang-2 parameter inclusion in the GERCOR reference model significantly and strongly improved its discriminative ability since the C-statistic increased significantly from 0.61 to 0.63 (bootstrap mean difference=0.07, 95%CI: 0.069–0.077). Interestingly, the addition of Ang-2 binary information with a 5 ng/mL cut-off value to the GERCOR model allowed the reclassification of intermediate-risk profile patients (41%) into two subsets of low and high-risks. Conclusions Our study provides robust evidence in favour of baseline Ang-2 prognostic value for OS adding to the conventional factors. Its assessment appears to be useful for the improvement in risk stratification for patients with intermediate-risk profile. Impact Ang-2 ability to predict OS at diagnosis could be of interest in the selection of patients eligible to intermittent or sequential therapeutic strategies dedicated to the optimization of patient’s quality of life and chemotherapy cost-effectiveness. PMID:25583947

  16. Electrocardiographic methods for diagnosis and risk stratification in the Brugada syndrome.

    PubMed

    Naseef, Abdulrahman; Behr, Elijah R; Batchvarov, Velislav N

    2015-04-01

    The Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a malignant, genetically-determined, arrhythmic syndrome manifesting as syncope or sudden cardiac death (SCD) in individuals with structurally normal hearts. The diagnosis of the BrS is mainly based on the presence of a spontaneous or Na + channel blocker induced characteristic, electrocardiographic (ECG) pattern (type 1 or coved Brugada ECG pattern) typically seen in leads V1 and V2 recorded from the 4th to 2nd intercostal (i.c.) spaces. This pattern needs to be distinguished from similar ECG changes due to other causes (Brugada ECG phenocopies). This review focuses mainly on the ECG-based methods for diagnosis and arrhythmia risk assessment in the BrS. Presently, the main unresolved clinical problem is the identification of those patients at high risk of SCD who need implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), which is the only therapy with proven efficacy. Current guidelines recommend ICD implantation only in patients with spontaneous type 1 ECG pattern, and either history of aborted cardiac arrest or documented sustained VT (class I), or syncope of arrhythmic origin (class IIa) because they are at high risk of recurrent arrhythmic events (up to 10% or more annually for those with aborted cardiac arrest). The majority of BrS patients are asymptomatic when diagnosed and considered to have low risk (around 0.5% annually) and therefore not indicated for ICD. The majority of SCD victims in the BrS, however, had no symptoms prior to the fatal event and therefore were not protected with an ICD. While some ECG markers such as QRS fragmentation, infero-lateral early repolarisation, and abnormal late potentials on signal-averaged ECG are known to be linked to increased arrhythmic risk, they are not sufficiently sensitive or specific. Potential novel ECG-based strategies for risk stratification are discussed based on computerised methods for depolarisation and repolarisation analysis, a composite approach targeting several major

  17. Electrocardiography Patterns and the Role of the Electrocardiography Score for Risk Stratification in Acute Pulmonary Embolism

    PubMed Central

    Ryu, Hyeon Min; Lee, Ju Hwan; Kwon, Yong Seop; Lee, Sang Hyuk; Bae, Myung Hwan; Lee, Jang Hoon; Yang, Dong Heon; Park, Hun Sik; Chae, Shung Chull; Jun, Jae-Eun; Park, Wee-Hyun

    2010-01-01

    Background and Objectives Data on the usefulness of a combination of different electrocardiography (ECG) abnormalities in risk stratification of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) are limited. We thus investigated 12-lead ECG patterns in acute PE to evaluate the role of the ECG score in risk stratification of patients with acute PE. Subjects and Methods One hundred twenty-five consecutive patients (63±14 years, 56 men) with acute PE who were admitted to Kyungpook National University Hospital between November 2001 and January 2008 were included. We analyzed ECG patterns and calculated the ECG score in all patients. We evaluated right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) (n=75) and RV hypokinesia (n=80) using echocardiography for risk stratification of acute PE patients. Results Among several ECG findings, sinus tachycardia and inverted T waves in V1-4 (39%) were observed most frequently. The mean ECG score and RVSP were 7.36±6.32 and 49±21 mmHg, respectively. The ECG score correlated with RVSP (r=0.277, p=0.016). The patients were divided into two groups {high ECG-score group (n=38): ECG score >12 and low ECG-score group (n=87): ECG score ≤12} based on the ECG score, with the maximum area under the curve. RV hypokinesia was observed more frequently in the high ECG-score group than in the low ECG-score group (p=0.006). Multivariate analysis revealed that a high ECG score was an independent predictor of high RVSP and RV hypokinesia. Conclusion Sinus tachycardia and inverted T waves in V1-4 were commonly observed in acute PE. Moreover, the ECG score is a useful tool in risk stratification of patients with acute PE. PMID:21088753

  18. Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

    2013-01-01

    In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3–2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period. PMID:24379785

  19. Percentage of Positive Biopsy Cores: A Better Risk Stratification Model for Prostate Cancer?

    SciTech Connect

    Huang Jiayi; Vicini, Frank A.; Williams, Scott G.; Ye Hong; McGrath, Samuel; Ghilezan, Mihai; Krauss, Daniel; Martinez, Alvaro A.; Kestin, Larry L.

    2012-07-15

    Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) and perineural invasion in predicting the clinical outcomes after radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer and to explore the possibilities to improve on existing risk-stratification models. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2004, 1,056 patients with clinical Stage T1c-T3N0M0 prostate cancer, who had four or more biopsy cores sampled and complete biopsy core data available, were treated with external beam RT, with or without a high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost at William Beaumont Hospital. The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed with PPC, Gleason score, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, T stage, PNI, radiation dose, androgen deprivation, age, prostate-specific antigen frequency, and follow-up duration. A new risk stratification (PPC classification) was empirically devised to incorporate PPC and replace the T stage. Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the PPC was an independent predictor of distant metastasis, cause-specific survival, and overall survival (all p < .05). A PPC >50% was associated with significantly greater distant metastasis (hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-8.61), and its independent predictive value remained significant with or without androgen deprivation therapy (all p < .05). In contrast, PNI and T stage were only predictive for locoregional recurrence. Combining the PPC ({<=}50% vs. >50%) with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification demonstrated added prognostic value of distant metastasis for the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio, 5.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-16.6) and high-risk (hazard ratio, 4.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-11.3) groups, regardless of the use of androgen deprivation and high-dose RT (all p < .05). The proposed PPC classification appears to provide improved stratification of the clinical outcomes relative to the National

  20. Stratification of responders towards eculizumab using a structural epitope mapping strategy

    PubMed Central

    Volk, Anna-Luisa; Hu, Francis Jingxin; Berglund, Magnus M.; Nordling, Erik; Strömberg, Patrik; Uhlen, Mathias; Rockberg, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The complement component 5 (C5)-binding antibody eculizumab is used to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and atypical haemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS). As recently reported there is a need for a precise classification of eculizumab responsive patients to allow for a safe and cost-effective treatment. To allow for such stratification, knowledge of the precise binding site of the drug on its target is crucial. Using a structural epitope mapping strategy based on bacterial surface display, flow cytometric sorting and validation via haemolytic activity testing, we identified six residues essential for binding of eculizumab to C5. This epitope co-localizes with the contact area recently identified by crystallography and includes positions in C5 mutated in non-responders. The identified epitope also includes residue W917, which is unique for human C5 and explains the observed lack of cross-reactivity for eculizumab with other primates. We could demonstrate that Ornithodorus moubata complement inhibitor (OmCI), in contrast to eculizumab, maintained anti-haemolytic function for mutations in any of the six epitope residues, thus representing a possible alternative treatment for patients non-responsive to eculizumab. The method for stratification of patients described here allows for precision medicine and should be applicable to several other diseases and therapeutics. PMID:27509843

  1. Stratification of responders towards eculizumab using a structural epitope mapping strategy.

    PubMed

    Volk, Anna-Luisa; Hu, Francis Jingxin; Berglund, Magnus M; Nordling, Erik; Strömberg, Patrik; Uhlen, Mathias; Rockberg, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The complement component 5 (C5)-binding antibody eculizumab is used to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and atypical haemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS). As recently reported there is a need for a precise classification of eculizumab responsive patients to allow for a safe and cost-effective treatment. To allow for such stratification, knowledge of the precise binding site of the drug on its target is crucial. Using a structural epitope mapping strategy based on bacterial surface display, flow cytometric sorting and validation via haemolytic activity testing, we identified six residues essential for binding of eculizumab to C5. This epitope co-localizes with the contact area recently identified by crystallography and includes positions in C5 mutated in non-responders. The identified epitope also includes residue W917, which is unique for human C5 and explains the observed lack of cross-reactivity for eculizumab with other primates. We could demonstrate that Ornithodorus moubata complement inhibitor (OmCI), in contrast to eculizumab, maintained anti-haemolytic function for mutations in any of the six epitope residues, thus representing a possible alternative treatment for patients non-responsive to eculizumab. The method for stratification of patients described here allows for precision medicine and should be applicable to several other diseases and therapeutics. PMID:27509843

  2. Diabetes Mellitus and Prediabetes on Kidney Transplant Waiting List- Prevalence, Metabolic Phenotyping and Risk Stratification Approach

    PubMed Central

    Guthoff, Martina; Vosseler, Dorothea; Langanke, Julia; Nadalin, Silvio; Königsrainer, Alfred; Häring, Hans-Ulrich; Fritsche, Andreas; Heyne, Nils

    2015-01-01

    Background Despite a significant prognostic impact, little is known about disturbances in glucose metabolism among kidney transplant candidates. We assess the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) and prediabetes on kidney transplant waiting list, its underlying pathophysiology and propose an approach for individual risk stratification. Methods All patients on active kidney transplant waiting list of a large European university hospital transplant center were metabolically phenotyped. Results Of 138 patients, 76 (55%) had disturbances in glucose metabolism. 22% of patients had known DM, 3% were newly diagnosed. 30% were detected to have prediabetes. Insulin sensitivity and-secretion indices allowed for identification of underlying pathophysiology and risk factors. Age independently affected insulin secretion, resulting in a relative risk for prediabetes of 2.95 (95%CI 1.38–4.83) with a cut-off at 48 years. Body mass index independently affected insulin sensitivity as a continuous variable. Conclusions The prevalence of DM or prediabetes on kidney transplant waiting list is as high as 55%, with more than one third of patients previously undiagnosed. Oral glucose tolerance test is mandatory to detect all patients at risk. Metabolic phenotyping allows for differentiation of underlying pathophysiology and provides a basis for early individual risk stratification and specific intervention to improve patient and allograft outcome. PMID:26398489

  3. A new gender-specific model for skin autofluorescence risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Ahmad, Muhammad S; Damanhouri, Zoheir A; Kimhofer, Torben; Mosli, Hala H; Holmes, Elaine

    2015-01-01

    Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) are believed to play a significant role in the pathophysiology of a variety of diseases including diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Non-invasive skin autofluorescence (SAF) measurement serves as a proxy for tissue accumulation of AGEs. We assessed reference SAF and skin reflectance (SR) values in a Saudi population (n = 1,999) and evaluated the existing risk stratification scale. The mean SAF of the study cohort was 2.06 (SD = 0.57) arbitrary units (AU), which is considerably higher than the values reported for other populations. We show a previously unreported and significant difference in SAF values between men and women, with median (range) values of 1.77 AU (0.79-4.84 AU) and 2.20 AU (0.75-4.59 AU) respectively (p-value « 0.01). Age, presence of diabetes and BMI were the most influential variables in determining SAF values in men, whilst in female participants, SR was also highly correlated with SAF. Diabetes, hypertension and obesity all showed strong association with SAF, particularly when gender differences were taken into account. We propose an adjusted, gender-specific disease risk stratification scheme for Middle Eastern populations. SAF is a potentially valuable clinical screening tool for cardiovascular risk assessment but risk scores should take gender and ethnicity into consideration for accurate diagnosis. PMID:25974028

  4. Isoniazid-induced polyneuropathy in a tuberculosis patient – implication for individual risk stratification with genotyping?

    PubMed Central

    Stettner, Mark; Steinberger, Daniela; Hartmann, Christian J; Pabst, Tatjana; Konta, Lidija; Hartung, Hans Peter; Kieseier, Bernd C

    2015-01-01

    Background Development of polyneuropathy (PNP) under treatment for tuberculosis (TB), including isoniazid (INH), is a highly relevant adverse drug effect. The NAT2 acetylation status is a predictor of potential toxic effects of INH. The question as to whether individual risk stratification by genotyping is useful to avoid suffering of patients and to lower costs for the health care system is of considerable clinical importance. Case Presentation After drug treatment for TB, including INH, a 23-year-old man developed severe PNP. During the treatment, laboratory results have been indicating incipient liver and renal injury. Later, molecular genetic analyses were performed and revealed a variation in the NAT2 gene and the c1/c2 genotype of the CYP2E1 gene, both described to contribute to an elevated risk for anti-tuberculostatic-induced liver damages (ATIL). Conclusion The combination of metabolizer genotypes should be taken into account as a cause for toxic effects and the development of PNP. Individual genotyping, performed before medication or at least if an elevation of liver parameters is observed, may reduce the risk of severe cases of PNP by early adjustment of treatment. Our case study indicates that evaluation of individual risk stratification with systematic pharmacogenetic genotyping of metabolizer gene combinations in the context of TB treatment should be addressed in clinical studies with larger cohorts. PMID:26355945

  5. Stratification of the Risk of Sudden Death in Nonischemic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Pimentel, Maurício; Zimerman, Leandro Ioschpe; Rohde, Luis Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    Despite significant therapeutic advancements, heart failure remains a highly prevalent clinical condition associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In 30%-40% patients, the etiology of heart failure is nonischemic. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is capable of preventing sudden death and decreasing total mortality in patients with nonischemic heart failure. However, a significant number of patients receiving ICD do not receive any kind of therapy during follow-up. Moreover, considering the situation in Brazil and several other countries, ICD cannot be implanted in all patients with nonischemic heart failure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify patients at an increased risk of sudden death because these would benefit more than patients at a lower risk, despite the presence of heart failure in both risk groups. In this study, the authors review the primary available methods for the stratification of the risk of sudden death in patients with nonischemic heart failure. PMID:25352509

  6. Role of echocardiography in diagnosis and risk stratification in heart failure with left ventricular systolic dysfunction

    PubMed Central

    Ciampi, Quirino; Villari, Bruno

    2007-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that can result from any structural or functional cardiac disorder that impairs the ability of the ventricle to fill with or eject blood. Echocardiography represents the "gold standard" in the assessment of LV systolic dysfunction and in the recognition of systolic heart failure, since dilatation of the LV results in alteration of intracardiac geometry and hemodynamics leading to increased morbidity and mortality. The functional mitral regurgitation is a consequence of adverse LV remodelling that occurs with a structurally normal valve and it is a marker of adverse prognosis. Diastolic dysfunction plays a major role in signs and symptoms of HF and in the risk stratification, and provides prognostic information independently in HF patients and impaired systolic function. Ultrasound lung comets are a simple echographic sign of extravascular lung water, more frequently associated with left ventricular diastolic and/or systolic dysfunction, which can integrate the clinical and pathophysiological information provided by conventional echocardiography and provide a useful information for prognostic stratification of HF patients. Contractile reserve is defined as the difference between values of an index of left ventricular contractility during peak stress and its baseline values and the presence of myocardial viability predicts a favorable outcome. A non-invasive echocardiographic method for the evaluation of force-frequency relationship has been proposed to assess the changes in contractility during stress echo. In conclusion, in HF patients, the evaluation of systolic, diastolic function and myocardial contractile reserve plays a fundamental role in the risk stratification. The highest risk is present in HF patients with a heart that is weak, big, noisy, stiff and wet. PMID:17910744

  7. Clinical Usefulness of Novel Serum and Imaging Biomarkers in Risk Stratification of Patients with Stable Angina

    PubMed Central

    Ikonomidis, Ignatios; Tsantes, Argirios

    2014-01-01

    Inflammatory mediators appear to be the most intriguing yet confusing subject, regarding the management of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The current inflammatory concept of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease (CAD) led many investigators to concentrate on systemic markers of inflammation, as well as imaging techniques, which may be helpful in risk stratification and prognosis assessment for cardiovascular events. In this review, we try to depict many of the recently studied markers regarding stable angina (SA), their clinical usefulness, and possible future applications in the field. PMID:25045198

  8. Value of planar 201Tl imaging in risk stratification of patients recovering from acute myocardial infarction

    SciTech Connect

    Gibson, R.S.; Watson, D.D. )

    1991-09-01

    Although exercise ECG testing has been shown to have important prognostic value after acute myocardial infarction, exercise 201Tl scintigraphy offers several potential advantages, including: (1) increased sensitivity for detecting residual myocardial ischemia; (2) the ability to localize ischemia to a specific area or areas subtended by a specific coronary artery; (3) the ability to identify exercise-induced left ventricular dysfunction, which is manifested by increased lung uptake or transient left ventricular dilation; and (4) more reliable risk stratification of individual patients. The more optimal prognostic efficiency of 201Tl scintigraphy partially results from the fact that the error rate in falsely classifying patients as low risk is significantly smaller with 201Tl scintigraphy than with stress ECG. Because of these substantial advantages, there seems to be adequate rationale for recommending exercise perfusion imaging rather than exercise ECG alone as the preferred method for evaluating mortality and morbidity risks after acute myocardial infarction.

  9. Coronary Artery Calcium Screening: Does it Perform Better than Other Cardiovascular Risk Stratification Tools?

    PubMed Central

    Zeb, Irfan; Budoff, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been advocated as one of the strongest cardiovascular risk prediction markers. It performs better across a wide range of Framingham risk categories (6%–10% and 10%–20% 10-year risk categories) and also helps in reclassifying the risk of these subjects into either higher or lower risk categories based on CAC scores. It also performs better among population subgroups where Framingham risk score does not perform well, especially young subjects, women, family history of premature coronary artery disease and ethnic differences in coronary risk. The absence of CAC is also associated with excellent prognosis, with 10-year event rate of 1%. Studies have also compared with other commonly used markers of cardiovascular disease risk such as Carotid intima-media thickness and highly sensitive C-reactive protein. CAC also performs better compared with carotid intima-media thickness and highly sensitive C-reactive protein in prediction of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease events. CAC scans are associated with relatively low radiation exposure (0.9–1.1 mSv) and provide information that can be used not only for risk stratification but also can be used to track the progression of atherosclerosis and the effects of statins. PMID:25807266

  10. Pulmonary embolism, part I: Epidemiology, risk factors and risk stratification, pathophysiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis and nonthrombotic pulmonary embolism

    PubMed Central

    Bĕlohlávek, Jan; Dytrych, Vladimír; Linhart, Aleš

    2013-01-01

    Pulmonary embolism is an important clinical entity with considerable mortality despite advances in diagnosis and treatment. In the present article, the authors offer a comprehensive review focused mainly on epidemiology, risk factors, risk stratification, pathophysiological considerations and clinical presentation. Diagnosis based on assessment of clinical likelihood, electrocardiography, chest x-ray, D-dimer levels, markers of myocardial injury and overload, and blood gases is discussed in detail. Special attention is devoted to the clinical use of computed tomography, pulmonary angiography and echocardiography in the setting of pulmonary embolism. PMID:23940438

  11. Risk stratification-based surveillance of bacterial contamination in metropolitan ambulances.

    PubMed

    Noh, Hyun; Shin, Sang Do; Kim, Nam Joong; Ro, Young Sun; Oh, Hyang Soon; Joo, Se Ik; Kim, Jung In; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock

    2011-01-01

    We aimed to know the risk-stratification-based prevalence of bacterial contamination of ambulance vehicle surfaces, equipment, and materials. This study was performed in a metropolitan area with fire-based single-tiered Basic Life Support ambulances. Total 13 out of 117 ambulances (11.1%) were sampled and 33 sites per each ambulance were sampled using a soft rayon swab and aseptic containers. These samples were then plated onto a screening media of blood agar and MacConkey agar. Specific identification with antibiotic susceptibility was performed. We categorized sampling sites into risk stratification-based groups (Critical, Semi-critical, and Non-critical equipment) related to the likelihood of direct contact with patients' mucosa. Total 214 of 429 samples showed positive results (49.9%) for any bacteria. Four of these were pathogenic (0.9%) (MRSA, MRCoNS, and K. pneumoniae), and 210 of these were environmental flora (49.0%). However, the prevalence (positive/number of sample) of bacterial contamination in critical, semi-critical airway, semi-critical breathing apparatus group was as high as 15.4% (4/26), 30.7% (16/52), and 46.2% (48/104), respectively. Despite current formal guidelines, critical and semi-critical equipments were contaminated with pathogens and normal flora. This study suggests the need for strict infection control and prevention for ambulance services. PMID:21218040

  12. Risk stratification of childhood medulloblastoma in the molecular era: the current consensus.

    PubMed

    Ramaswamy, Vijay; Remke, Marc; Bouffet, Eric; Bailey, Simon; Clifford, Steven C; Doz, Francois; Kool, Marcel; Dufour, Christelle; Vassal, Gilles; Milde, Till; Witt, Olaf; von Hoff, Katja; Pietsch, Torsten; Northcott, Paul A; Gajjar, Amar; Robinson, Giles W; Padovani, Laetitia; André, Nicolas; Massimino, Maura; Pizer, Barry; Packer, Roger; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M; Taylor, Michael D; Pomeroy, Scott L

    2016-06-01

    Historical risk stratification criteria for medulloblastoma rely primarily on clinicopathological variables pertaining to age, presence of metastases, extent of resection, histological subtypes and in some instances individual genetic aberrations such as MYC and MYCN amplification. In 2010, an international panel of experts established consensus defining four main subgroups of medulloblastoma (WNT, SHH, Group 3 and Group 4) delineated by transcriptional profiling. This has led to the current generation of biomarker-driven clinical trials assigning WNT tumors to a favorable prognosis group in addition to clinicopathological criteria including MYC and MYCN gene amplifications. However, outcome prediction of non-WNT subgroups is a challenge due to inconsistent survival reports. In 2015, a consensus conference was convened in Heidelberg with the objective to further refine the risk stratification in the context of subgroups and agree on a definition of risk groups of non-infant, childhood medulloblastoma (ages 3-17). Published and unpublished data over the past 5 years were reviewed, and a consensus was reached regarding the level of evidence for currently available biomarkers. The following risk groups were defined based on current survival rates: low risk (>90 % survival), average (standard) risk (75-90 % survival), high risk (50-75 % survival) and very high risk (<50 % survival) disease. The WNT subgroup and non-metastatic Group 4 tumors with whole chromosome 11 loss or whole chromosome 17 gain were recognized as low-risk tumors that may qualify for reduced therapy. High-risk strata were defined as patients with metastatic SHH or Group 4 tumors, or MYCN-amplified SHH medulloblastomas. Very high-risk patients are Group 3 with metastases or SHH with TP53 mutation. In addition, a number of consensus points were reached that should be standardized across future clinical trials. Although we anticipate new data will emerge from currently ongoing and recently

  13. The value of exercise radionuclide ventriculography in risk stratification after coronary arterial bypass grafting

    SciTech Connect

    Iskandrian, A.S.; Hakki, A.H.; Goel, I.P.; Mundth, E.D.; Kane, S.; Schenk, C.

    1985-05-01

    Cardiac events after coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) may be related to left ventricular (LV) function, residual coronary artery diseases (CAD), graft occlusion, and progression of CAD. This study examined the value of rest and exercise (EX) radionuclide ventriculography (RNV) done 3-6 mos after CABG in risk stratification in 212 pts. There were 185 men and 27 women, aged 57 +- 8 years (mean +- SD). During a followup period of up to 4 years, (15 +- 10 months), there were 23 cardiac events; 13 pts died of cardiac causes and 20 had non-fatal acute myocardial infarctions. The pts with and without events did not differ in: clinical presentation after CABG (most were asymptomatic), medications and ECG findings at rest and EX. The pts with events had lower EX systolic blood pressure (p < 0.01); resting LV ejection fraction (EF) (p = 0.002), and EX EF (40 +- 18% vs 54 +- 16%, p = 0.002). The change in EF (rest to EX) was not significantly different (l.6 +- 8.2%, vs 2.1 +- 9.2%). Survival analysis (Cox model) identified the EX EF as the best predictor of death and total events (X/sup 2/ = 4.3 and 2.4, p = 0.04 and 0.07 respectively). Actuarial life table analysis showed that the risk increased as the EX EF decreased when pts were grouped into EX EF greater than or equal to 50, 30-49, and <30%, (p < 0.001, Mantel-Cox). Thus, EX RNA is useful in risk stratification after CABG. The EX LVEF is an important descriptor that categorizes pts into different risks groups. The pts at high risk probably require more aggressive followup and continued medical therapy.

  14. Tools for risk stratification of sudden cardiac death: A review of the literature in different patient populations

    PubMed Central

    Ragupathi, Loheetha; Pavri, Behzad B.

    2014-01-01

    While various modalities to determine risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) have been reported in clinical studies, currently reduced left ventricular ejection fraction remains the cornerstone of SCD risk stratification. However, the absolute burden of SCD is greatest amongst populations without known cardiac disease. In this review, we summarize the evidence behind current guidelines for implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) use for the prevention of SCD in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD). We also evaluate the evidence for risk stratification tools beyond clinical guidelines in the general population, patients with IHD, and patients with other known or suspected medical conditions. PMID:24568833

  15. Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death In Patients With Non-ischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

    PubMed Central

    Shekha, Karthik; Ghosh, Joydeep; Thekkoott, Deepak; Greenberg, Yisachar

    2005-01-01

    Non ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) is a disorder of myocardium. It has varying etiologies. Albeit the varying etiologies of this heart muscle disorder, it presents with symptoms of heart failure, and rarely as sudden cardiac death (SCD). Manifestations of this disorder are in many ways similar to its counterpart, ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDCM). A proportion of patients with NIDCM carries a grave prognosis and is prone to sudden cardiac death from sustained ventricular arrhythmias. Identification of this subgroup of patients who carry the risk of sudden cardiac death despite adequate medical management is a challenge .Yet another method is a blanket treatment of patients with this disorder with anti arrhythmic medications or anti tachyarrhythmia devices like implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD). However this modality of treatment could be a costly exercise even for affluent economies. In this review we try to analyze the existing data of risk stratification of NIDCM and its clinical implications in practice. PMID:16943952

  16. Rockall score for risk stratification in adult patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Rahman, M W; Sumon, S M; Amin, M R; Kahhar, M A

    2013-10-01

    The Rockall risk score is a simple, validated predictive index that may serve as a useful clinical decision for assessing the risk of subsequent adverse outcomes in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH). The observational study was carried out over a period of 6 months from 10th July, 2012 to 09th January, 2013 in Department of Medicine, Dhaka Medical College Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh. A total of 60 patients with non-variceal UGIH were taken for the study during study period to see risk stratification by Rockall score and short term hospital outcome in non-variceal upper GI hemorrhage patients. Categorical variables were reported as percentage and Means and proportions were carried out using the Chi-square test of different variables. Among study population age distribution were 42(70%) <60 years, 16(26.7%) from 60-79 years and 02(3.3%) 80 years or above and sex distribution were 39(65%) male and 21(35%) were female patients. Rockall score of patients 11(18.3%) had score 1, 6(10%) had score 2, 13(21.7%) had score 3, 10(16.7%) had score 4, 6(10%) had score 5, 6(10%) had score 6, 4(6.7%) had score 7, 3(5.0%) had score 8 and 1(1.7%) had score 9. Risk stratification showed 30(50%) had low risk (score 3 or <3), 26(43.3%) had moderate risk (score 4-7) and 4(6.7%) had high risk (score 8 or >8). Outcome after initial Rockall scoring and endoscopy were found that 7(11.7%) died, 46(76.6%) survived and 7(11.7%) patients survived with complication. This study showed that Rockall score of ≤3 was predictive of low risk of adverse outcomes, and a score of ≥8 was predictive of high mortality and was useful in identifying patients with non-variceal UGIH who had low-risk scores in order to triage appropriately, without affecting patient outcomes. PMID:24292298

  17. Risk Stratification in Older Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: Physicians' Perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Feder, Shelli L.; Schulman-Green, Dena; Dodson, John A.; Geda, Mary; Williams, Kathleen; Nanna, Michael G.; Allore, Heather G.; Murphy, Terrence E.; Tinetti, Mary E.; Gill, Thomas M.; Chaudhry, Sarwat I.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Risk stratification models support clinical decision making in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) care. Existing models were developed using data from younger populations, potentially limiting accuracy and relevance in older adults. We describe physician-perceived risk factors, views of existing models, and preferences for future model development in older adults. Method Qualitative study using semi-structured telephone interviews and the constant comparative method. Results Twenty-two physicians from 14 institutions completed the interviews. Median age was 37, and median years of clinical experience was 11.5. Perceived predictors included cardiovascular, comorbid, functional, and social risk factors. Physicians viewed models as easy to use, yet neither inclusive of risk factors nor predictive of non-mortality outcomes germane to clinical decision making in older adults. Ideal models included multidimensional risk domains and operational requirements. Discussion Physicians reported limitations of available risk models when applied to older adults with AMI. New models are needed to guide AMI treatment in this population. PMID:26100619

  18. A new comorbidities index for risk stratification for treatment of unruptured cerebral aneurysms.

    PubMed

    Newman, William C; Neal, Dan W; Hoh, Brian L

    2016-09-01

    OBJECTIVE Comorbidities have an impact on risk stratification for outcomes in analyses of large patient databases. Although the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI) are the most commonly used comorbidity indexes, these have not been validated for patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysms; therefore, the authors created a comorbidity index specific to these patients. METHODS The authors extracted all records involving unruptured cerebral aneurysms treated with clipping, coiling, or both from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2002-2010). They assessed the effect of 37 variables on poor outcome and used the results to create a risk score for these patients. The authors used a validation data set and bootstrapping to evaluate the new index and compared it to CCI and ECI in prediction of poor outcome, mortality, length of stay, and hospital charges. RESULTS The index assigns integer values (-2 to 7) to 20 comorbidities: neurological disorder, renal insufficiency, gastrointestinal bleeding, paralysis, acute myocardial infarction, electrolyte disorder, weight loss, metastatic cancer, drug abuse, arrhythmia, coagulopathy, cerebrovascular accident, psychosis, alcoholism, perivascular disease, valvular disease, tobacco use, hypothyroidism, depression, and hypercholesterolemia. Values are summed to determine a patient's risk score. The new index was better at predicting poor outcome than CCI or ECI (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.814 [95% CI 0.798-0.830], vs 0.694 and 0.712, respectively, for the other indices), and it was also better at predicting mortality (AUC 0.775 [95% CI 0.754-0.792], vs 0.635 and 0.657, respectively, for CCI and ECI). CONCLUSIONS This new comorbidity index outperforms the CCI and ECI in predicting poor outcome, mortality, length of stay, and total charges for patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysm. Reevaluation of other patient cohorts is warranted to determine the impact of

  19. Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization Following Liver Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Based on Survival Risk Stratification

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jun; Wang, Qing; Lei, Zhengqing; Wu, Dong; Si, Anfeng; Wang, Kui; Wan, Xuying; Wang, Yizhou; Yan, Zhenlin; Xia, Yong; Lau, Wan Yee; Wu, Mengchao

    2015-01-01

    Background. The effectiveness of adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after hepatectomy remains unclear. This study was performed to identify ICC patients who would benefit from adjuvant TACE. Patients and Methods. The study included 553 patients who underwent hepatectomy for ICC between January 2008 and February 2011 at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital and who were treated with or without TACE (122 with TACE and 431 without TACE). Survival risk stratification was performed using the established prognostic nomogram (ICC nomogram). The predictive performance was evaluated by concordance index and calibration. The tumor recurrence and overall survival (OS) rates were analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method before and after propensity score matching (PSM). Results. The predictive performance of the ICC nomogram was demonstrated by the well-fitted calibration curves and an optimal c-index of 0.71 for OS prediction. In the whole cohort, the 5-year recurrence and OS rates between the TACE and non-TACE groups were significantly different (5-year recurrence: 72.9% vs. 78.1%; OS: 38.4% vs. 29.7%). After 1:1 PSM, the TACE and non-TACE groups (122 patients each) had similar 5-year recurrence and OS rates (5-year recurrence: 72.9% vs. 74.2%; OS: 38.4% vs. 36.0%). By survival risk stratification based on ICC nomogram, only the patients in the lowest tertile (nomogram scores ≥77) benefited from adjuvant TACE (TACE vs. non-TACE groups: 90.4% vs. 95.9% for 5-year recurrence; 21.3% vs. 6.2% for 5-year OS). Conclusion. Adjuvant TACE following liver resection might be suitable for ICC patients with high ICC nomogram scores (≥77). Implications for Practice: The accurate predictive performance of the established prognostic nomogram for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) following liver resection was reconfirmed in an independent cohort with 553 patients. Based on the survival risk stratification using the nomogram

  20. The use of molecular-based risk stratification and pharmacogenomics for outcome prediction and personalized therapeutic management of multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Sarah K.; Heuck, Christoph J.; Albino, Anthony P.; Qu, Pingping; Zhang, Qing; Barlogie, Bart

    2015-01-01

    Despite improvement in therapeutic efficacy, multiple myeloma (MM) remains incurable with a median survival of approximately 10 years. Gene-expression profiling (GEP) can be used to elucidate the molecular basis for resistance to chemotherapy through global assessment of molecular alterations that exist at diagnosis, after therapeutic treatment and that evolve during tumor progression. Unique GEP signatures associated with recurrent chromosomal translocations and ploidy changes have defined molecular classes with differing clinical features and outcomes. When compared to other stratification systems the GEP70 test remained a significant predictor of outcome, reduced the number of patients classified with a poor prognosis, and identified patients at increased risk of relapse despite their standard clinico-pathologic and genetic findings. GEP studies of serial samples showed that risk increases over time, with relapsed disease showing GEP shifts toward a signature of poor outcomes. GEP signatures of myeloma cells after therapy were prognostic for event-free and overall survival and thus may be used to identify novel strategies for overcoming drug resistance. This brief review will focus on the use of GEP of MM to define high-risk myeloma, and elucidate underlying mechanisms that are beginning to change clinical decision-making and inform drug design. PMID:22002477

  1. Development of Inpatient Risk Stratification Models of Acute Kidney Injury for Use in Electronic Health Records

    PubMed Central

    Matheny, Michael E.; Miller, Randolph A.; Ikizler, T. Alp; Waitman, Lemuel R.; Denny, Joshua C.; Schildcrout, Jonathan S.; Dittus, Robert S.; Peterson, Josh F.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Patients with hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (AKI) are at risk for increased mortality and further medical complications. Evaluating these patients with a prediction tool easily implemented within an electronic health record (EHR) would identify high risk patients prior to the development of AKI, and could prevent iatrogenically induced episodes of AKI and improve clinical management. Methods We used structured clinical data acquired from an EHR to identify patients with normal kidney function for admissions from August 1st, 1999 to July 31st, 2003. Using administrative, computerized provider order entry, and laboratory test data, we developed a 3-level risk stratification model to predict each of two severity levels of in-hospital AKI as defined by RIFLE criteria. The severity levels were defined as 150% or 200% of baseline serum creatinine. Model discrimination and calibration was evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation. Results Cross-validation of the models resulted in area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curves of 0.75 (150% elevation) and 0.78 (200% elevation). Both models were adequately calibrated as measured by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test chi-squared values of 9.7 (p = 0.29) and 12.7 (p = 0.12), respectively. Conclusions We generated risk prediction models for hospital-acquired AKI using only commonly available electronic data. The models identify patients at high risk for AKI who might benefit from early intervention or increased monitoring. PMID:20354229

  2. Post-operative bleeding risk stratification in cardiac pulmonary bypass patients using artificial neural network.

    PubMed

    Huang, Richard S P; Nedelcu, Elena; Bai, Yu; Wahed, Amer; Klein, Kimberly; Tint, Hlaing; Gregoric, Igor; Patel, Manish; Kar, Biswajit; Loyalka, Pranav; Nathan, Sriram; Radovancevic, Rajko; Nguyen, Andy N D

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of bleeding risk in cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) patients plays a vital role in their postoperative management. Therefore, an artificial neural network (ANN) to analyze intra-operative laboratory data to predict postoperative bleeding was set up. The JustNN software (Neural Planner Software, Cheshire, England) was used. This ANN was trained using 15 intra-operative laboratory parameters paired with one output category - risk of bleeding, defined as units of blood components transfused in 48 hours. The ANN was trained with the first 39 CPB cases. The set of input parameters for this ANN was also determined, and the ANN was validated with the next 13 cases. The set of input parameters include five components: pro-thrombin time, platelet count, thromboelastograph-reaction time, D-Dimer, and thromboelastograph-coagulation index. The validation results show 9 cases (69.2%) with exact match, 3 cases (23.1%) with one-grading difference, and 1 case (7.7%) with two-grading difference between actual blood usage versus predicted blood usage. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first ANN developed for post-operative bleeding risk stratification of CPB patients. With promising results, we have started using this ANN to risk-stratify our CPB patients, and it has assisted us in predicting post-operative bleeding risk. PMID:25887872

  3. Perioperative risk stratification for a patient with severe obstructive sleep apnoea undergoing laparoscopic banding surgery.

    PubMed

    Weinberg, Laurence; Tay, Stan; Lai, Chung Fei; Barnes, Maree

    2013-01-01

    Despite the increasing prevalence of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA), there is limited evidence to guide appropriate preoperative investigations, inpatient or outpatient surgery allocation, and the anticipated level of postoperative care. With reference to our institution's perioperative risk stratification, we describe the case of a 46-year-old Caucasian male with a body mass index of 51 kg/m(2) admitted for laparoscopic band insertion. Management based on our guidelines involved a preoperative polysomnography where the patient was confirmed to have severe OSA. His postoperative care was then managed in the high dependency care unit. He was discharged home on day 2 with no further sequelae. We provide evidence that adoption of this model of care can simplify clinical decision making and resource allocation with favourable patient outcomes. PMID:23370960

  4. Future directions in risk stratification and therapy for advanced pediatric genitourinary rhabdomyosarcoma.

    PubMed

    Harel, Miriam; Ferrer, Fernando A; Shapiro, Linda H; Makari, John H

    2016-02-01

    Rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) represents the most common soft tissue sarcoma in infants and children and the third most common pediatric solid tumor, accounting for 5% to 15% of all childhood solid tumors. Of these, 15% to 20% arise from the genitourinary tract, with the most common sites originating from the prostate, bladder, and paratesticular regions, followed by the vagina and uterus. Although upfront radical surgery was used at the initiation of Intergroup RMS Study-I (1972-1978), the treatment paradigm has shifted to include initial biopsy with the goal of organ preservation, systemic chemotherapy for all patients, and local control involving surgical resection with or without radiation therapy for most patients. Collaborative group clinical trials have led to dramatic improvement in survival rates from 1960 to 1996 among patients with low- or intermediate-risk disease; however, outcomes appear to have plateaued in more recent years, and the prognosis for patients with metastatic or relapsed/refractory disease remains poor. Current management goals include minimizing toxicity while maintaining the excellent outcomes in low-risk disease, as well as improving outcomes in patients with intermediate- and high-risk disease. Advances in genetic analysis have allowed further refinement in risk stratification of patients. Perhaps the most significant recent development in RMS research was the discovery of an association of alveolar RMS (ARMS) with translocations t(2;13) and t(1;13). Translocation fusion-positive tumors comprise 80% of ARMS and are more aggressive. Fusion-negative ARMS may have a clinical course similar to embryonal RMS. Future Children's Oncology Group sarcoma studies will likely incorporate fusion status into risk stratification and treatment allocation. Newer radiotherapy modalities hold promise for providing local control of disease while minimizing morbidity. The addition of traditional cytotoxic chemotherapeutic agents does not seem to improve

  5. Preoperative risk stratification models fail to predict hospital cost of cardiac surgery patients

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Preoperative risk stratification models have previously been suggested to predict cardiac surgery unit costs. However, there is a lack of consistency in their reliability in this field. In this study we aim to test the correlation between the values of six commonly known preoperative scoring systems and evaluate their reliability at predicting unit costs of cardiac surgery patients. Methods Over a period of 14 months all consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery on cardiopulmonary bypass were prospectively classified using six preoperative scoring models (EuroSCORE, Parsonnet, Ontario, French, Pons and CABDEAL). Transplantation patients were the only patients we excluded. Total hospital costs for each patient were calculated independently on a daily basis using the bottom up method. The full unit costs were calculated including preoperative diagnostic tests, operating room cost, disposable materials, drugs, blood components as well as costs for personnel and fixed hospital costs. The correlation between hospital cost and the six models was determined by linear regression analysis. Both Spearman’s and Pearson’s correlation coefficients were calculated from the regression lines. An analysis of residuals was performed to determine the quality of the regression. Results A total of 887 patients were operated on for CABG (n = 608), valve (n = 142), CABG plus valve (n = 100), thoracic aorta (n = 33) and ventricular assist devices (n = 4). Mean age of the patients was 68.3±9.9 years, 27.6% were female. 30-day mortality rate was 4.1%. Correlation between the six models and hospital cost was weak (Pearson’s: r < 0.30; Spearman’s: r < 0.40). Conclusion The risk stratification models in this study are not reliable at predicting total costs of cardiac surgical patients. We therefore do not recommend their use for this purpose. PMID:23659251

  6. Orthostatic Blood Pressure Test for Risk Stratification in Patients with Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

    PubMed Central

    Münch, Julia; Aydin, Ali; Suling, Anna; Voigt, Christian; Blankenberg, Stefan; Patten, Monica

    2015-01-01

    Background Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young adults, mainly ascribed to ventricular tachycardia (VT). Assuming that VT is the major cause of (pre-) syncope in HCM patients, its occurrence is essential for SCD risk stratification and primarily preventive ICD-implantation. However, evidence of VT during syncope is often missing. As the differentiation of potential lethal causes for syncope such as VT from more harmless reasons is crucial, HCM patients were screened for orthostatic dysregulation by using a simple orthostatic blood pressure test. Methods Over 15 months (IQR [9;20]) 100 HCM patients (55.8±16.2 yrs, 61% male) were evaluated for (pre-)syncope and VT (24h-ECGs, device-memories) within the last five years. Eighty patients underwent an orthostatic blood pressure test. Logistic regression models were used for statistical analysis. Results In older patients (>40 yrs) a positive orthostatic test result increased the chance of (pre-) syncope by a factor of 63 (95%-CI [8.8; 447.9], p<0.001; 93% sensitivity, 95%-CI [76; 99]; 74% specificity, 95%-CI [58; 86]). No correlation with VT was shown. A prolonged QTc interval also increased the chance of (pre-) syncope by a factor of 6.6 (95%-CI [2.0; 21.7]; p=0.002). Conclusions The orthostatic blood pressure test is highly valuable for evaluation of syncope and presyncope especially in older HCM patients, suggesting that orthostatic syncope might be more relevant than previously assumed. Considering the high complication rates due to ICD therapies, this test may provide useful information for the evaluation of syncope in individual risk stratification and may help to prevent unnecessary device implantations, especially in older HCM patients. PMID:26107635

  7. Heart rate variability and non-linear dynamics in risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Perkiömäki, Juha S

    2011-01-01

    The time-domain measures and power-spectral analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) are classic conventional methods to assess the complex regulatory system between autonomic nervous system and heart rate and are most widely used. There are abundant scientific data about the prognostic significance of the conventional measurements of HRV in patients with various conditions, particularly with myocardial infarction. Some studies have suggested that some newer measures describing non-linear dynamics of heart rate, such as fractal measures, may reveal prognostic information beyond that obtained by the conventional measures of HRV. An ideal risk indicator could specifically predict sudden arrhythmic death as the implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy can prevent such events. There are numerically more sudden deaths among post-infarction patients with better preserved left ventricular function than in those with severe left ventricular dysfunction. Recent data support the concept that HRV measurements, when analyzed several weeks after acute myocardial infarction, predict life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias in patients with moderately depressed left ventricular function. However, well-designed prospective randomized studies are needed to evaluate whether the ICD therapy based on the assessment of HRV alone or with other risk indicators improves the patients' prognosis. Several issues, such as the optimal target population, optimal timing of HRV measurements, optimal methods of HRV analysis, and optimal cutpoints for different HRV parameters, need clarification before the HRV analysis can be a widespread clinical tool in risk stratification. PMID:22084633

  8. Multiscale regularity analysis of the Heart Rate Variability: stratification of cardiac death risk.

    PubMed

    Valencia, J F; Vallverdú, M; Cygankiewicz, I; Voss, A; Vazquez, R; de Luna, A Bayés; Caminal, P

    2007-01-01

    Subjects with ischemic dilated cardiomiopathy tend to suffer episodes of sudden cardiac death, thus risk stratification is essential to establish an adequate therapy for the patients. In this work, a new methodology was proposed for the study of the heart rate variability by using a multiscale analysis based on the concept of entropy rates, for improving risk prediction in cardiac patients. Symbolic dynamics were applied to RR time series and sets of words in several scales were constructed. The multiscale regularity analysis was proposed by comparing the entropies, calculated using Shannon and Renyi definitions, of the series of words in different scales. The study considered the selection of the best parameters for the length of the words (l) and the order of the entropies (q). Statistical analysis with repeated measures and discriminant analysis revealed statistically significant differences (p-value<0.05) and a high percentage of well classified subjects in their different risk groups, with sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values of 100%. PMID:18003368

  9. Stress testing for risk stratification of patients with low to moderate probability of acute cardiac ischemia.

    PubMed

    Chandra, A; Rudraiah, L; Zalenski, R J

    2001-02-01

    In summary, this article focused on the use of stress testing to risk-stratify patients at the conclusion of their emergency evaluation for ACI. As discussed, those patients in the probably not ACI category require additional risk stratification prior to discharge. It should be kept in mind that patients in this category are heterogeneous, containing subgroups at both higher and lower risk of ACI and cardiac events. The patients with lower pretest probability for ACI may only need exercise testing in the ED. Patients with higher pretest probability should undergo myocardial perfusion or echocardiographic stress testing to maximize diagnostic and prognostic information. Prognostic information is the key to provocative testing in the ED. Prognostic information is the component that will help emergency physicians identify the patients who may be discharged home safely without having to worry about a 6% annual cardiac death rate and a 10% overall death rate over the next 30 months. Stress testing provides this key prognostic data, and it can be obtained in short-stay chest pain observation units in a safe, timely, and cost-effective fashion. PMID:11214405

  10. Risk stratification of non-contrast CT beyond the coronary calcium scan

    PubMed Central

    Madaj, Paul; Budoff, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a well-known marker for coronary artery disease and has important prognostic implications. CAC is able to provide clinicians with a reliable source of information related to cardiovascular atherosclerosis, which carries incremental information beyond Framingham risk. However, non-contrast scans of the heart provide additional information beyond the Agatston score. These studies are also able to measure various sources of fat, including intrathoracic (eg, pericardial or epicardial) and hepatic, both of which are thought to be metabolically active and linked to increased incidence of subclinical atherosclerosis as well as increased prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Testing for CAC is also useful in identifying extracoronary sources of calcification. Specifically, aortic valve calcification, mitral annular calcification, and thoracic aortic calcium (TAC) provide additional risk stratification information for cardiovascular events. Finally, scanning for CAC is able to evaluate myocardial scaring due to myocardial infarcts, which may also add incremental prognostic information. To ensure the benefits outweigh the risks of a scanning for CAC for an appropriately selected asymptomatic patient, the full utility of the scan should be realized. This review describes the current state of the art interpretation of non-contrast cardiac CT, which clinically should go well beyond coronary artery Agatston scoring alone. PMID:22981856

  11. CK-MB isoforms for early risk stratification of emergency department patients.

    PubMed

    Green, G B; Dehlinger, E; McGrievey, T S; Li, D J; Jones, K A; Kelen, G D; Chan, D W

    2000-10-01

    The potential clinical utility of single sample CK-MB isoforms measurement for early risk stratification of Emergency Department (ED) patients with possible myocardial ischemia was evaluated among 405 patients presenting to two urban EDs. Clinical and serologic data were prospectively collected and the occurrence of adverse events (AEs) and myocardial infarction (MI) during the 14-day outcome period was recorded and utilized to calculate and compare relative risks (RR) and predictive values of isoforms and CK-MB alone. Among the 405 patients, 67 accrued 105 AEs. Both isoforms and CK-MB alone were predictive of AEs with RR of 3.32 (2.09, 5.27) and 6.28 (4.64, 8.52), respectively. Isoforms had higher sensitivity for AEs compared to CK-MB (65.7% [54.3, 77.0] vs. 14.9% [6.4, 23.5]; p<0. 01) but lower specificity (69.2% [64.3, 74.2] vs. 99.7% [99.1,100. 0]; p<0.01). Isoforms' superior sensitivity allowed identification of many high risk patients missed by CK-MB alone. Further, for the prediction of MI, isoforms had superior diagnostic sensitivity and equivalent specificity. This investigation supports the emergency department use of early, single sample CK-MB isoform testing. PMID:10958863

  12. Noninvasive risk stratification after myocardial infarction: rationale, current evidence and the need for definitive trials.

    PubMed

    Exner, Derek

    2009-06-01

    Despite advances in therapies for myocardial infarction (MI), death attributed to a cardiac arrest from ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF) remains an important problem. The implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is effective in preventing death from VT/VF, but reliably identifying which post-MI patients would benefit from an ICD remains a major challenge. Beyond the initial post-MI period, the presence of significant left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, alone or in combination with the induction of sustained VT/VF during invasive testing, is the only proven means of selecting patients for a prophylactic ICD. However, these approaches identify only a fraction of those at risk. Furthermore, most patients with significant LV dysfunction after MI have a low, near-term risk of VT/VF. Noninvasive risk stratification tools have been developed to better identify patients likely to benefit from an ICD. To date, none of these tools has been proven useful in this regard. The factors leading to a cardiac arrest are complex, and a single test is unlikely to reliably predict risk. Noninvasive assessment of cardiac structure, conduction and repolarization along with autonomic modulation appear to be useful in predicting the risk of a cardiac arrest after MI, particularly when assessed in combination. However, randomized trials assessing the efficacy of ICD therapy in patients identified as being at risk are required. Until such data are available, significant LV dysfunction alone and in combination with the induction of VT/VF during invasive testing in the nonacute post-MI period remain the only proven methods to guide prophylactic ICD therapy. PMID:19521570

  13. ECG Morphological Variability in Beat Space for Risk Stratification After Acute Coronary Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yun; Syed, Zeeshan; Scirica, Benjamin M.; Morrow, David A.; Guttag, John V.; Stultz, Collin M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Identification of patients who are at high risk of adverse cardiovascular events after an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains a major challenge in clinical cardiology. We hypothesized that quantifying variability in electrocardiogram (ECG) morphology may improve risk stratification post‐ACS. Methods and Results We developed a new metric to quantify beat‐to‐beat morphologic changes in the ECG: morphologic variability in beat space (MVB), and compared our metric to published ECG metrics (heart rate variability [HRV], deceleration capacity [DC], T‐wave alternans, heart rate turbulence, and severe autonomic failure). We tested the ability of these metrics to identify patients at high risk of cardiovascular death (CVD) using 1082 patients (1‐year CVD rate, 4.5%) from the MERLIN‐TIMI 36 (Metabolic Efficiency with Ranolazine for Less Ischemia in Non‐ST‐Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome—Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 36) clinical trial. DC, HRV/low frequency–high frequency, and MVB were all associated with CVD (hazard ratios [HRs] from 2.1 to 2.3 [P<0.05 for all] after adjusting for the TIMI risk score [TRS], left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF], and B‐type natriuretic peptide [BNP]). In a cohort with low‐to‐moderate TRS (N=864; 1‐year CVD rate, 2.7%), only MVB was significantly associated with CVD (HR, 3.0; P=0.01, after adjusting for LVEF and BNP). Conclusions ECG morphological variability in beat space contains prognostic information complementary to the clinical variables, LVEF and BNP, in patients with low‐to‐moderate TRS. ECG metrics could help to risk stratify patients who might not otherwise be considered at high risk of CVD post‐ACS. PMID:24963105

  14. Noninvasive risk stratification after myocardial infarction: Rationale, current evidence and the need for definitive trials

    PubMed Central

    Exner, Derek V

    2009-01-01

    Despite advances in therapies for myocardial infarction (MI), death attributed to a cardiac arrest from ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF) remains an important problem. The implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is effective in preventing death from VT/VF, but reliably identifying which post-MI patients would benefit from an ICD remains a major challenge. Beyond the initial post-MI period, the presence of significant left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, alone or in combination with the induction of sustained VT/VF during invasive testing, is the only proven means of selecting patients for a prophylactic ICD. However, these approaches identify only a fraction of those at risk. Furthermore, most patients with significant LV dysfunction after MI have a low, near-term risk of VT/VF. Noninvasive risk stratification tools have been developed to better identify patients likely to benefit from an ICD. To date, none of these tools has been proven useful in this regard. The factors leading to a cardiac arrest are complex, and a single test is unlikely to reliably predict risk. Noninvasive assessment of cardiac structure, conduction and repolarization along with autonomic modulation appear to be useful in predicting the risk of a cardiac arrest after MI, particularly when assessed in combination. However, randomized trials assessing the efficacy of ICD therapy in patients identified as being at risk are required. Until such data are available, significant LV dysfunction alone and in combination with the induction of VT/VF during invasive testing in the nonacute post-MI period remain the only proven methods to guide prophylactic ICD therapy. PMID:19521570

  15. Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Scar Imaging for Sudden Cardiac Death Risk Stratification in Patients with Non-Ischemic Cardiomyopathy

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Eun Kyoung; Chattranukulchai, Pairoj

    2015-01-01

    In patients with non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM), risk stratification for sudden cardiac death (SCD) and selection of patients who would benefit from prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillators remains challenging. We aim to discuss the evidence of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR)-derived myocardial scar for the prediction of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in NICM. From the 15 studies analyzed, with a total of 2747 patients, the average prevalence of myocardial scar was 41%. In patients with myocardial scar, the risk for adverse cardiac events was more than 3-fold higher, and risk for arrhythmic events 5-fold higher, as compared to patients without scar. Based on the available observational, single center studies, CMR scar assessment may be a promising new tool for SCD risk stratification, which merits further investigation. PMID:26175568

  16. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Risk Stratification of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) by the Primary Care Physician Using the NAFLD Fibrosis Score

    PubMed Central

    Tapper, Elliot B.; Hunink, M. G. Myriam; Afdhal, Nezam H.; Lai, Michelle; Sengupta, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Background The complications of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) are dependent on the presence of advanced fibrosis. Given the high prevalence of NAFLD in the US, the optimal evaluation of NAFLD likely involves triage by a primary care physician (PCP) with advanced disease managed by gastroenterologists. Methods We compared the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis risk-assessment strategies in a cohort of 10,000 simulated American patients with NAFLD performed in either PCP or referral clinics using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model. The strategies included use of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), combination testing with NFS and VCTE, and liver biopsy (usual care by a specialist only). NFS and VCTE performance was obtained from a prospective cohort of 164 patients with NAFLD. Outcomes included cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and correct classification of fibrosis. Results Risk-stratification by the PCP using the NFS alone costs $5,985 per QALY while usual care costs $7,229/QALY. In the microsimulation, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000, the NFS alone in PCP clinic was the most cost-effective strategy in 94.2% of samples, followed by combination NFS/VCTE in the PCP clinic (5.6%) and usual care in 0.2%. The NFS based strategies yield the best biopsy-correct classification ratios (3.5) while the NFS/VCTE and usual care strategies yield more correct-classifications of advanced fibrosis at the cost of 3 and 37 additional biopsies per classification. Conclusion Risk-stratification of patients with NAFLD primary care clinic is a cost-effective strategy that should be formally explored in clinical practice. PMID:26905872

  17. Arrhythmic risk stratification after myocardial infarction using ambulatory electrocardiography signal averaging.

    PubMed

    Roche, Frédéric; DaCosta, Antoine; Karnib, Ibrahim; Triomphe, Géraldine; Roche, Christian; Isaaz, Karl; Geyssant, André; Barthélémy, Jean-Claude

    2002-05-01

    Ambulatory ECG had been proposed to examine the amplified high resolution signal-averaged electrocardiogram (SAECG). Clinical investigations are required to confirm the predictive value of such a high resolution technique in arrhythmic risk stratification. The prognostic value of ambulatory Holter SAECG was evaluated in 108 postinfarction patients for the purpose of predicting the occurrence of serious arrhythmic (SARR) events (sudden cardiac death [SCD], VT, or VF) in comparison with classical real-time SAECG. During the 42+/-8 months of follow-up, the sudden cardiac death mortality was 4.6% (five deaths), six (5.6%) patients had VT, and one (0.9%) VF. QRSd was found to be the most predictive parameter using ROC curves analysis for SAAR + outcome (W = 0.833 and W = 0.803 for 25-250 Hz and 40-250 Hz filters, respectively) followed by RMS (W = 0.766 and W = 0.721) and LAS (W = 0.759, W = 0.709) (all P < 0.01). Abnormal Holter SAECG for 25 and 40-Hz LP filter were significant predictors of SARR+ by log-rank test (P < 0.01, P < 0.05, respectively). This study confirms that valuable prognostic information can be obtained from the ambulatory high resolution ECG technique and that Holter SAECG may predict arrhythmic risk in a postinfarction population. PMID:12049370

  18. Post-Myocardial Infarction Arrhythmia Risk Stratification Using Microvolt T-Wave Alternans

    PubMed Central

    Donoiu, I.; Mirea, Oana Cristina; Giuca, Alina; Militaru, C.; Ionescu, D.D.

    2012-01-01

    Since its initial description, a number of studies have described the use of microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) as a predictor of the primary or secondary occurrence of ventricular arrhythmic events. These studies, however, have been limited by small sample sizes and disparate patient populations. Studies of MTWA in post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients are few in number, but hold predictive value for risk of ventricular arrhythmias. We performed a study of MTWA in post-myocardial infarction patients to clarify the predictive accuracy and usefulness of MTWA compared to other invasive and non-invasive techniques. We enrolled 120 patients (74 men, 46 women, mean age 62.3 ± 15.2 years in men, and 64.2 ± 13.8 years in women) with a history of myocardial infarction but no prior sustained ventricular arrhythmias. Patients were assessed by echocardiography, Holter, signal averaged ECG, MTWA, and electrophysiology study. Mean follow-up was 14 months. The MTWA test had a good negative predictive value for arrhythmic events in post-MI patients and can be used for risk stratification. We consider that in patients with positive MTWA further invasive evaluation, respectively electrophysiology study, is necessary. PMID:24778843

  19. Risk stratification of patients with hypertension using exercise thallium-201 scintigraphy

    SciTech Connect

    Iskandrian, A.S.; Hakki, A.H.; Kane, S.

    1985-05-01

    Hypertension (HT) is an important risk factor in coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiac morbidity and mortality. This study examined the value of clinical, ECG, exercise (EX) and thallium-201 imaging descriptors that identify patients (pts) with HT at high risk. The 337 pts in the study underwent EX thallium-201 testing for evaluation of chest pain due to suspected or proven CHD. The mean age was 55 years, of whom 79% were still on active anti-HT therapy at the time of the study. The EX thallium scintigrams were evaluated qualitatively and quantitively using circumferential profile analysis. The scans were abnormal in 162 pts (48%) and reversible perfusion defects were present in 106 of the 162 pts (65%). At a folllowup fo up to 74 months, (15 +- 9 mean +- SD), 11 pts had hard cardiac events: 2 died of cardiac causes and 9 had non-fatal acute myocardial infractions. There were no significant differences between those with and without events in age, EX heart rate and double product, EX duration, blood pressure and EX ECG changes. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis (Cox regression model) of important clinical, ECG, EX and thallium variables, identified the presence of abnormal EX images as the only predictor of outcome. (X/sup 2/ = 5.4, p< 0.02). No other variable provided additional prognostic information. Actuarial life table analysis showed that pts with abnormal images had significantly more events than those with normal images (p = 0.008, Mantel-Cox). Thus, EX thallium imaging is useful in risk stratification in pts with HT. The presence of abnormal images identify a subgroup at high risk for future events.

  20. Emergency department management of syncope: need for standardization and improved risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Taljaard, Monica; Stiell, Ian G; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Murray, Heather; Vaidyanathan, Aparna; Rowe, Brian H; Calder, Lisa A; Lang, Eddy; McRae, Andrew; Sheldon, Robert; Wells, George A

    2015-08-01

    Variations in emergency department (ED) syncope management have not been well studied. The goals of this study were to assess variations in management, and emergency physicians' risk perception and disposition decision making. We conducted a prospective study of adults with syncope in six EDs in four cities over 32 months. We collected patient characteristics, ED management, disposition, physicians' prediction probabilities at index presentation and followed patients for 30 days for serious outcomes: death, myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmia, structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, significant hemorrhage, or procedural interventions. We used descriptive statistics, ROC curves, and regression analyses. We enrolled 3662 patients: mean age 54.3 years, and 12.9 % were hospitalized. Follow-up data were available for 3365 patients (91.9 %) and 345 patients (10.3 %) suffered serious outcomes: 120 (3.6 %) after ED disposition including 48 patients outside the hospital. After accounting for differences in patient case mix, the rates of ED investigations and disposition were significantly different (p < 0.0001) across the four study cities; as were the rates of 30-day serious outcomes (p < 0.0001) and serious outcomes after ED disposition (p = 0.0227). There was poor agreement between physician risk perception and both observed event rates and referral patterns (p < 0.0001). Only 76.7 % (95 % CI 68.1-83.6) of patients with serious outcomes were appropriately referred. There are large and unexplained differences in ED syncope management. Moreover, there is poor agreement between physician risk perception, disposition decision making, and serious outcomes after ED disposition. A valid risk-stratification tool might help standardize ED management and improve disposition decision making. PMID:25918108

  1. A clinical risk stratification tool for predicting treatment resistance in major depressive disorder

    PubMed Central

    Perlis, Roy

    2013-01-01

    Background Early identification of depressed individuals at high risk for treatment-resistance could be helpful in selecting optimal setting and intensity of care. At present, validated tools to facilitate this risk stratification are rarely used in psychiatric practice. Methods Data were drawn from the first two treatment levels of a multicenter antidepressant effectiveness study in major depressive disorder, the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D) cohort. This cohort was divided into training, testing, and validation subsets. Only clinical or sociodemographic variables available by, or readily amenable to, self-report were considered. Multivariate models were developed to discriminate individuals reaching remission with a first or second pharmacologic treatment trial from those not reaching remission despite two trials. Results A logistic regression model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) exceeding 0.71 in training, testing and validation cohorts, and maintained good calibration across cohorts. Performance of three alternative models using machine learning approaches–a naïve Bayes classifier and a support vector machine, and a random forest model – was less consistent. Similar performance was observed between more and less severe depression, males and females, and primary versus specialty care sites. A web-based calculator was developed which implements this tool and provides graphical estimates of risk. Conclusion Risk for treatment-resistance among outpatients with major depressive disorder can be estimated using a simple model incorporating baseline sociodemographic and clinical features. Future studies should examine the performance of this model in other clinical populations and its utility in treatment selection or clinical trial design. Registration Sequential Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D); NCT00021528; www.star-d.org PMID:23380715

  2. Recurrent abnormalities can be used for risk group stratification in pediatric AMKL: a retrospective intergroup study.

    PubMed

    de Rooij, Jasmijn D E; Masetti, Riccardo; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Cayuela, Jean-Michel; Trka, Jan; Reinhardt, Dirk; Rasche, Mareike; Sonneveld, Edwin; Alonzo, Todd A; Fornerod, Maarten; Zimmermann, Martin; Pigazzi, Martina; Pieters, Rob; Meshinchi, Soheil; Zwaan, C Michel; Locatelli, Franco

    2016-06-30

    Genetic abnormalities and early treatment response are the main prognostic factors in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Acute megakaryoblastic leukemia (AMKL) is a rare subtype of AML. Deep sequencing has identified CBFA2T3/GLIS2 and NUP98/KDM5A as recurrent aberrations, occurring in similar frequencies as RBM15/MKL1 and KMT2A-rearrangements. We studied whether these cytogenetic aberrations can be used for risk group stratification. To assess frequencies and outcome parameters of recurrent cytogenetic aberrations in AMKL, samples and clinical data of patients treated by the Associazione Italiana Ematologia Oncologia Pediatrica, Berlin-Frankfurt-Munster Study Group, Children's Oncology Group, Dutch Childhood Oncology Group, and the Saint Louis Hôpital were collected, enabling us to screen 153 newly diagnosed pediatric AMKL cases for the aforementioned aberrations and to study their clinical characteristics and outcome. CBFA2T3/GLIS2 was identified in 16% of the cases; RBM15/MKL1, in 12%; NUP98/KDM5A and KMT2A rearrangements, in 9% each; and monosomy 7, in 6%. These aberrations were mutually exclusive. RBM15/MKL1-rearranged patients were significantly younger. No significant differences in sex and white blood cell count were found. NUP98/KDM5A, CBFA2T3/GLIS2, KMT2A-rearranged lesions and monosomy 7 (NCK-7) independently predicted a poor outcome, compared with RBM15/MKL1-rearranged patients and those with AMKL not carrying these molecular lesions. NCK-7-patients (n = 61) showed a 4-year probability of overall survival of 35 ± 6% vs 70 ± 5% in the RBM15/MKL1-other groups (n = 92, P < .0001) and 4-year probability of event-free survival of 33 ± 6% vs 62 ± 5% (P = .0013), the 4-year cumulative incidence of relapse being 42 ± 7% and 19 ± 4% (P = .003), respectively. We conclude that these genetic aberrations may be used for risk group stratification of pediatric AMKL and for treatment tailoring. PMID:27114462

  3. Public health implications from COGS and potential for risk stratification and screening.

    PubMed

    Burton, Hilary; Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Hall, Alison; Pashayan, Nora; Pharoah, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The PHG Foundation led a multidisciplinary program, which used results from COGS research identifying genetic variants associated with breast, ovarian and prostate cancers to model risk-stratified prevention for breast and prostate cancers. Implementing such strategies would require attention to the use and storage of genetic information, the development of risk assessment tools, new protocols for consent and programs of professional education and public engagement. PMID:23535723

  4. Iodine-123-metaiodobenzylguanidine scintigraphy in risk stratification of sudden death in heart failure.

    PubMed

    Martins da Silva, Marta Inês; Vidigal Ferreira, Maria João; Morão Moreira, Ana Paula

    2013-06-01

    Metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) is a false neurotransmitter noradrenaline analogue that is taken up by the 'uptake 1' transporter mechanism in the cell membrane of presynaptic adrenergic neurons and accumulates in catecholamine storage vesicles. Since it is practically unmetabolized, it can be labeled with a radioisotope (iodine-123) in scintigraphic exams to noninvasively assess the functional status of the sympathetic innervation of organs with a significant adrenergic component, including the heart. Studies of its application in nuclear cardiology appear to confirm its value in the assessment of conditions such as coronary artery disease, heart failure, arrhythmias and sudden death. Heart failure is a global problem, with an estimated prevalence of 2% in developed countries. Sudden cardiac death is the main cause of its high mortality. The autonomic nervous system dysfunction, including sympathetic hyperactivity, that accompanies chronic heart failure is associated with progressive myocardial remodeling, declining left ventricular function and worsening symptoms, and contributes to the development of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden death. Since 123I-MIBG cardiac scintigraphy can detect changes in the cardiac adrenergic system, there is considerable interest in its role in obtaining diagnostic and prognostic information in patients with heart failure. In this article we present a literature review on the use of 123I-MIBG scintigraphy for risk stratification of sudden death in patients with heart failure. PMID:23731734

  5. Mortality risk stratification in elderly trauma patients based on initial arterial lactate and base deficit levels.

    PubMed

    Neville, Angela L; Nemtsev, Denis; Manasrah, Raed; Bricker, Scott D; Putnam, Brant A

    2011-10-01

    Elderly trauma patients have worse outcomes than their younger counterparts. Early risk stratification remains difficult, particularly because traditional vital signs are less reliable. We hypothesized that arrival lactate and base deficit (BD) could be used to predict mortality in elderly trauma patients with a normal admission blood pressure. We retrospectively evaluated the prospectively collected trauma registry at our urban Level I trauma center between 2003 and 2009. Patients sustaining blunt trauma, age 55 years or older, with a systolic blood pressure 90 mmHg or higher, and who had arterial lactate and/or BD measured within 4 hours of arrival comprised the study group. Primary outcomes were in-hospital and 24-hour mortality. There were 364 patients with a lactate and 324 with a BD drawn. Patients with a lactate 2.5 mmol or greater were 3.7 times more likely to die than those with a lactate less than 2.5 mmol (95% CI, 1.6 to 8.2; P = 0.0018). The OR for mortality was 5.2 (95% CI, 2.5 to 11.2; P < 0.0001) in patients with a BD -4 or less. Elevated lactate and BD were even stronger predictors of early mortality (within first 24 hours). After increasing the hypotension threshold to a systolic blood pressure 110 mmHg or greater, lactate and BD remained highly predictive of in-hospital and 24-hour mortality. PMID:22127083

  6. Plasma copeptin for short term risk stratification in acute pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Wyzgał, Anna; Koć, Marcin; Pacho, Szymon; Bielecki, Maksymilian; Wawrzyniak, Radosław; Kostrubiec, Maciej; Ciurzyński, Michał; Kurnicka, Katarzyna; Goliszek, Sylwia; Paczyńska, Marzena; Palczewski, Piotr; Pruszczyk, Piotr

    2016-05-01

    Copeptin (COP) was reported to have prognostic value in various cardiovascular diseases. We hypothesized that COP levels reflect the severity of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and may be useful in prognostic assessment. Plasma COP concentrations were measured on the Kryptor Compact Plus platform (BRAHMS, Hennigsdorf, Germany). The study included 107 consecutive patients with diagnosed acute PE (47 males, 60 females), with median age of 65 years (range 20-88). High risk PE was diagnosed in 3 patients (2.8 %), intermediate risk in 69 (64.5 %), and low risk PE in 35 (32.7 %) patients. Control group included 64 subjects (25 males, 39 females; median age 52.5 year, range 17-87). Four patients (3.7 %) died during 30-day observation. Complicated clinical course (CCC) was experienced by 10 (9.3 %) patients. COP level was higher in PE patients than in controls [11.55 pmol/L (5.16-87.97), and 19.00 pmol/L (5.51-351.90), respectively, p < 0.0001], and reflected PE severity. COP plasma concentration in low risk PE was 14.67 nmol/L (5.51-59.61) and in intermediate/high risk PE 19.84 mol/L (5.64-351.90) p < 0.05. Median COP levels in nonsurvivors was higher than in survivors, 84.6 (28.48-351.9) pmol/L and 18.68 (5.512-210.1) pmol/L, respectively, p = 0.009. Subjects with CCC presented higher COP levels than patients with benign clinical course 53.1 (17.95-351.9) pmol/L and 18.16 (5.51-210.1) pmol/L, respectively, p = 0.001. Log-transformed plasma COP was the significant predictor of CCC, OR 16.5 95 % CI 23.2-111.9, p < 0.001. AUC-for prediction of CCC using plasma COP was 0.811 (95 % CI 0.676-0.927). The COP cut off value of 17.95 nmol/l had sensitivity of 100 %, specificity 49.5 %, positive predictive value of 16.9 % and negative predictive value of 100 %. We conclude that plasma COP levels can be regarded for promising marker of severity of acute PE and show potential in risk stratification of these patients. PMID:26438275

  7. Acute myeloid leukemia in the era of precision medicine: recent advances in diagnostic classification and risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Kansal, Rina

    2016-01-01

    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a genetically heterogeneous myeloid malignancy that occurs more commonly in adults, and has an increasing incidence, most likely due to increasing age. Precise diagnostic classification of AML requires clinical and pathologic information, the latter including morphologic, immunophenotypic, cytogenetic and molecular genetic analysis. Risk stratification in AML requires cytogenetics evaluation as the most important predictor, with genetic mutations providing additional necessary information. AML with normal cytogenetics comprises about 40%-50% of all AML, and has been intensively investigated. The currently used 2008 World Health Organization classification of hematopoietic neoplasms has been proposed to be updated in 2016, also to include an update on the classification of AML, due to the continuously increasing application of genomic techniques that have led to major advances in our knowledge of the pathogenesis of AML. The purpose of this review is to describe some of these recent major advances in the diagnostic classification and risk stratification of AML. PMID:27144061

  8. Clinical impact and risk stratification of balloon angioplasty for femoropopliteal disease in nitinol stenting era: Retrospective multicenter study using propensity score matching analysis

    PubMed Central

    Tsuchiya, Taketsugu; Takamura, Takaaki; Soga, Yoshimitsu; Iida, Osamu; Hirano, Keisuke; Suzuki, Kenji; Yamaoka, Terutoshi; Miyashita, Yusuke; Kitayama, Michihiko; Kajinami, Koji

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Nitinol stenting could bring the better outcome in endovascular therapy for femoropopliteal disease. However, it might be expected that recent marked advances in both device technology and operator technique had led to improved efficacy of balloon angioplasty even in this segment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the clinical impact of balloon angioplasty for femoropopliteal disease and make risk stratification clear by propensity score matching analysis. Methods: Based on the multicenter retrospective data, 2758 patients (balloon angioplasty: 729 patients and nitinol stenting: 2029 patients), those who underwent endovascular therapy for femoropopliteal disease, were analyzed. Results: The propensity score matching procedure extracted a total of 572 cases per group, and the primary patency rate of balloon angioplasty and nitinol stenting groups after matching was significantly the same (77.2% vs 82.7% at 1 year; 62.2% vs 64.3% at 3 years; 47.8% vs 54.3% at 5 years). In multivariate Cox hazard regression analysis, significant predictors for primary patency were diabetes mellitus, regular dialysis, cilostazol use, chronic total occlusion, and intra-vascular ultra-sonography use. The strategy of balloon angioplasty was not evaluated as a significant predictor for the primary patency. After risk stratification using five items (diabetes mellitus, regular dialysis, no use of intra-vascular ultra-sonography, chronic total occlusion, and no use of cilostazol: the DDICC score), the estimated primary patency rates of each group (low, DDICC score 0–2; moderate, DDICC score 3; high risk, DDICC score 4–5) were 88.6%, 78.3%, and 63.5% at 1 year; 75.2%, 60.7%, and 39.8% at 3 years; and 66.0%, 47.1%, and 26.3% at 5 years (p < 0.0001). The primary patency rate of balloon angioplasty and nitinol stenting groups was significantly the same in each risk stratification. Conclusion: This study suggests that balloon angioplasty does not have

  9. Prognostic value of health-related quality of life for death risk stratification in patients with unresectable glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Paquette, Brice; Vernerey, Dewi; Chauffert, Bruno; Dabakuyo, Sandrine; Feuvret, Loic; Taillandier, Luc; Frappaz, Didier; Taillia, Hervé; Schott, Roland; Ducray, François; Fabbro, Michel; Tennevet, Isabelle; Ghiringhelli, François; Guillamo, Jean-Sébastien; Durando, Xavier; Castera, Daniel; Frenay, Marc; Campello, Chantal; Dalban, Cécile; Skrzypski, Jérome; Chinot, Olivier; Anota, Amélie; Bonnetain, Franck

    2016-08-01

    Glioblastoma is the most common malignant brain tumor in adults. Baseline health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a major subject of concern for these patients. We aimed to assess the independent prognostic value of HRQoL in unresectable glioblastoma (UGB) patients for death risk stratification. One hundred and thirty-four patients with UGB were enrolled from the TEMAVIR trial. HRQoL was evaluated at baseline using the EORTC QLQ-C30 and BN20 brain cancer module. Clinical and HRQoL parameters were evaluated in univariable and multivariable Cox analysis as prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Performance assessment and internal validation of the final model were evaluated with Harrel's C-index, calibration plot, and bootstrap sample procedure. Two OS independent predictors were identified: future uncertainty and sensitivity deficit. The final model exhibited good calibration and acceptable discrimination (C statistic = 0.63). The internal validity of the model was verified with robust uncertainties around the hazard ratio. The prognostic score identified three groups of patients with distinctly different risk profiles with median OS estimated at 16.2, 9.2, and 4.5 months. We demonstrated the additional prognostic value of HRQoL in UGB for death risk stratification and provided a score that may help to guide clinical management and stratification in future clinical trials. PMID:27252150

  10. Ventricular arrhythmias in competitive athletes: risk stratification with T-wave alternans

    PubMed Central

    INAMA, GIUSEPPE; PEDRINAZZI, CLAUDIO; DURIN, ORNELLA; NANETTI, MASSIMILIANO; DONATO, GIORGIO; PIZZI, RITA

    2007-01-01

    Introduction: Aim of our study is to evaluate the role of TWA to stratify the risk of sudden cardiac death in athletes (Ath) with complex ventricular arrhythmias (VA), and to document a possible correlation between TWA and electrophysiological testing (EES) results. Methods: We studied 43 Ath with VA (31 M, mean age 34 ± 12 years). In all cases a cardiological evaluation was performed, including TWA and EES. The patients were evaluated during a follow-up of 25 ± 22 months. The end-point was the occurrence of sudden death or malignant ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VT). Results: TWA was negative in 28 Ath (65%), positive in 8 (19%) and indeterminate in 7 (16%). All subjects with negative TWA did not show induction of VT at EES, with significant correlation between negative TWA and negative EES (p<0.001). All Ath with positive TWA also had VT induced by a EES, but without significant correlation between positive TWA and positive EES. In 2 Ath with undetermined TWA (29%) VT were induced at EES. Our data did not show significant correlation between indeterminate TWA and positive or negative EES. However, logistic regression analysis showed significant correlation between abnormal TWA test (positive or indeterminate) and inducibility of VT at EES (p<0.001). During follow-up we observed a significant difference in end-point occurrence between Ath with negative or positive TWA and between Ath with negative or positive EES. Conclusion: TWA confirm its role as a simple and non-invasive test, and it seems useful for prognostic stratification of Ath with VA. PMID:21977276

  11. Dynamic risk stratification for medullary thyroid cancer according to the response to initial therapy.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Hyemi; Kim, Won Gu; Jeon, Min Ji; Song, Dong Eun; Lee, Yu-Mi; Sung, Tae-Yon; Chung, Ki-Wook; Yoon, Jong Ho; Hong, Suck Joon; Baek, Jung Hwan; Lee, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Tae Yong; Kim, Won Bae; Shong, Young Kee

    2016-07-01

    Detecting persistent/recurrent disease of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is important. The tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system is useful for predicting disease-specific mortality, but is a static system and does not include postoperative serum calcitonin levels. We have focused on the clinical usefulness of dynamic risk stratification (DRS) using the best response to the initial therapy in MTC patients. A total of 120 MTC patients were classified into three DRS groups based on their responses to initial therapy. Clinical outcomes were assessed according to TNM staging and DRS. In the DRS, 70, 23 and 7 % of the MTC patients were classified into excellent, biochemical incomplete, or structural incomplete response groups, respectively. On TNM staging, 37, 16, 13 and 35 % of patients were stages I-IV, respectively. There were significant differences in survivals according to TNM staging (p = 0.03) and DRS (p = 0.005). During the median follow-up of 6.2 years, 75 patients (63 %) demonstrated no evidence of disease (NED). About 60 and 17 % of patients in stages III and IV were NED, respectively. DRS predicted NED better than TNM staging according to the proportion of variance explained (PVE) (49.1 vs. 28.7 %, respectively). At the final follow-up, 88, 4 and 0 % of patients in excellent, biochemical incomplete, and structural incomplete response groups attained NED, respectively. DRS based on the best response to the initial therapy can provide useful prognostic information in addition to initial TNM staging for predicting of mortality, as well as the likelihood of NED in MTC patients. PMID:26754662

  12. Gastric ulcers: malignancy yield and risk stratification for follow-up endoscopy

    PubMed Central

    Selinger, Christian P; Cochrane, Rebecca; Thanaraj, Sangeetha; Sainsbury, Anita; Subramanian, Venkat; Everett, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Background and study aim: Malignant change can occur in gastric ulcer but guideline recommendations for follow-endoscopy (FU-OGD) are conflicting. This study aims to determine rate of malignancy and need for follow-up for gastric ulcers. Patients and methods: Patients with a first diagnosis of gastric ulcer between January 2012 and September 2013 were studied by analyzing endoscopic assessments, dysplasia, and malignancy yield and the influence of risk factors on the likelihood of benign disease. Results: In a cohort of 432 patients with gastric ulcer (53 % male, mean age 65 years) dysplasia or neoplasia were found in 27 (19 adenocarcinomas, 2 cases of dysplasia, 5 lymphomas, 1 melanoma; malignancy yield 6 %). Twenty-five (93 %) cases were diagnosed on first biopsy. The cancer yield of FU-OGD after initially benign biopsy was 0.9 %. Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that endoscopically benign appearance (odds ratio 0.004 95 % CI 0 – 0.576; P = 0.029), benign histology on first biopsy (odds ratio 0 95 % CI 0 – 0.39; P = 0.011) and lower number of ulcers (odds ratio 0.22 (95 % CI 0.05 – 0.99); P = 0.049) were independent predictors of benign disease. All dysplastic and neoplastic cases would have been identified by a combination of initial biopsies plus repeat endoscopy with further biopsies for endoscopically suspicious appearances. Conclusions: In this large cohort 6 % of gastric ulcers were found to be malignant, highlighting the need for all gastric ulcers to be biopsied. The cancer yield of FU-OGD after benign biopsies was low. We have demonstrated that the combination of benign index histology and no endoscopic suspicion of malignancy can predict benign disease. We recommend that all gastric ulcers to be biopsied. Risk stratification could potentially reduce need for FU-OGD. PMID:27556082

  13. The Role of Biomarkers in the Diagnosis and Risk Stratification of Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease: A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Ali, Alaa M; DiPersio, John F; Schroeder, Mark A

    2016-09-01

    Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is an increasingly used curative modality for hematologic malignancies and other benign conditions. Attempts to reduce morbidity and mortality and improve survival in patients undergoing HCT are crucial. The ability to diagnose acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) in a timely manner, or to even predict aGVHD before clinical manifestations, along with the accurate stratification of these patients, are critical steps to improve the treatment and outcomes of these patients. Many novel biomarkers that may help achieve these goals have been studied recently. This overview is intended to assist clinicians and investigators by providing a comprehensive review and analytical interpretation of the current knowledge concerning aGVHD and biomarkers likely to prove useful in diagnosis and risk stratification of this condition, along with the difficulties that hamper this approach. PMID:27158050

  14. Adjuvant imatinib treatment in gastrointestinal stromal tumor: which risk stratification criteria and for how long? A case report.

    PubMed

    Blay, Jean-Yves; Levard, Alice

    2016-01-01

    Imatinib mesylate is approved for the adjuvant treatment of KIT-positive gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) following surgical resection. However, uncertainty remains in terms of patient eligibility for adjuvant treatment and the optimal duration of treatment. Here, we present two challenging patient cases encountered in clinical practice that highlight the ambiguity in the current recommendations for adjuvant imatinib in GIST and discuss our approaches and rationales for treatment. The first case involves a 36-year-old man with a 7 cm duodenal GIST and possible tumor rupture during surgical resection. This patient's risk of GIST recurrence was either intermediate or high depending on which risk stratification criteria were used. The patient was treated with adjuvant imatinib for 3 years and experienced disease recurrence 14 months after the completion of treatment. Imatinib treatment was reintroduced, and the patient is in partial response 17 months later. The second case involves a 46-year-old woman at high risk of recurrence following surgical resection. Adjuvant treatment with imatinib was initiated. After considering the patient's initial high risk and good side-effect profile, the decision was made to continue adjuvant imatinib treatment for 5 years. As of May 2013, the patient has been receiving continuous imatinib treatment for 52 months, with no sign of progression. These reports exemplify the challenges faced in clinical practice because of uncertainties in optimal risk stratification criteria and duration of treatment. They stress the importance of individualized treatment and shared decision making between the physician and the patient. PMID:26457546

  15. Exploring the color feature power for psoriasis risk stratification and classification: A data mining paradigm.

    PubMed

    Shrivastava, Vimal K; Londhe, Narendra D; Sonawane, Rajendra S; Suri, Jasjit S

    2015-10-01

    A large percentage of dermatologist׳s decision in psoriasis disease assessment is based on color. The current computer-aided diagnosis systems for psoriasis risk stratification and classification lack the vigor of color paradigm. The paper presents an automated psoriasis computer-aided diagnosis (pCAD) system for classification of psoriasis skin images into psoriatic lesion and healthy skin, which solves the two major challenges: (i) fulfills the color feature requirements and (ii) selects the powerful dominant color features while retaining high classification accuracy. Fourteen color spaces are discovered for psoriasis disease analysis leading to 86 color features. The pCAD system is implemented in a support vector-based machine learning framework where the offline image data set is used for computing machine learning offline color machine learning parameters. These are then used for transformation of the online color features to predict the class labels for healthy vs. diseased cases. The above paradigm uses principal component analysis for color feature selection of dominant features, keeping the original color feature unaltered. Using the cross-validation protocol, the above machine learning protocol is compared against the standalone grayscale features with 60 features and against the combined grayscale and color feature set of 146. Using a fixed data size of 540 images with equal number of healthy and diseased, 10 fold cross-validation protocol, and SVM of polynomial kernel of type two, pCAD system shows an accuracy of 99.94% with sensitivity and specificity of 99.93% and 99.96%. Using a varying data size protocol, the mean classification accuracies for color, grayscale, and combined scenarios are: 92.85%, 93.83% and 93.99%, respectively. The reliability of the system in these three scenarios are: 94.42%, 97.39% and 96.00%, respectively. We conclude that pCAD system using color space alone is compatible to grayscale space or combined color and grayscale

  16. Value of Exercise ECG for Risk Stratification in Suspected or Known CAD in the Era of Advanced Imaging Technologies.

    PubMed

    Bourque, Jamieson M; Beller, George A

    2015-11-01

    Exercise stress electrocardiography (ExECG) is underutilized as the initial test modality in patients with interpretable electrocardiograms who are able to exercise. Although stress myocardial imaging techniques provide valuable diagnostic and prognostic information, variables derived from ExECG can yield substantial data for risk stratification, either supplementary to imaging variables or without concurrent imaging. In addition to exercise-induced ischemic ST-segment depression, such markers as ST-segment elevation in lead aVR, abnormal heart rate recovery post-exercise, failure to achieve target heart rate, and poor exercise capacity improve risk stratification of ExECG. For example, patients achieving ≥10 metabolic equivalents on ExECG have a very low prevalence of inducible ischemia and an excellent prognosis. In contrast, cardiac imaging techniques add diagnostic and prognostic value in higher-risk populations (e.g., poor functional capacity, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease). Optimal test selection for symptomatic patients with suspected coronary artery disease requires a patient-centered approach factoring in the risk/benefit ratio and cost-effectiveness. PMID:26563861

  17. Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators at End of Battery Life: Opportunities for Risk (Re)-Stratification in ICD Recipients.

    PubMed

    Merchant, Faisal M; Quest, Tammie; Leon, Angel R; El-Chami, Mikhael F

    2016-02-01

    Although implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) are frequently viewed as a lifelong commitment in that patients are routinely scheduled for generator exchange (GE) at end of battery life, several considerations should prompt a reevaluation of risks and benefits before GE. Compared with initial ICD implant, patients receiving replacement devices are older, and have more comorbidities and shorter life expectancy, all of which may limit the benefit of ICD therapy following GE. Additionally, GE is associated with significant complications, including infection, which may increase the risk of mortality. In this paper, we review recent data regarding opportunities for risk stratification before GE, with a particular focus on those with improved left ventricular function and those who have not experienced ICD therapies during the first battery life. We also provide a broader perspective on ICD therapy, focusing on how decisions regarding GE may affect goals of care at the end of life. PMID:26821633

  18. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  19. A perspective on the range of gasoline compression ignition combustion strategies for high engine efficiency and low NOx and soot emissions: Effects of in-cylinder fuel stratification

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Dempsey, Adam B.; Curran, Scott J.; Wagner, Robert M.

    2016-01-14

    Many research studies have shown that low temperature combustion in compression ignition engines has the ability to yield ultra-low NOx and soot emissions while maintaining high thermal efficiency. To achieve low temperature combustion, sufficient mixing time between the fuel and air in a globally dilute environment is required, thereby avoiding fuel-rich regions and reducing peak combustion temperatures, which significantly reduces soot and NOx formation, respectively. It has been demonstrated that achieving low temperature combustion with diesel fuel over a wide range of conditions is difficult because of its properties, namely, low volatility and high chemical reactivity. On the contrary, gasolinemore » has a high volatility and low chemical reactivity, meaning it is easier to achieve the amount of premixing time required prior to autoignition to achieve low temperature combustion. In order to achieve low temperature combustion while meeting other constraints, such as low pressure rise rates and maintaining control over the timing of combustion, in-cylinder fuel stratification has been widely investigated for gasoline low temperature combustion engines. The level of fuel stratification is, in reality, a continuum ranging from fully premixed (i.e. homogeneous charge of fuel and air) to heavily stratified, heterogeneous operation, such as diesel combustion. However, to illustrate the impact of fuel stratification on gasoline compression ignition, the authors have identified three representative operating strategies: partial, moderate, and heavy fuel stratification. Thus, this article provides an overview and perspective of the current research efforts to develop engine operating strategies for achieving gasoline low temperature combustion in a compression ignition engine via fuel stratification. In this paper, computational fluid dynamics modeling of the in-cylinder processes during the closed valve portion of the cycle was used to illustrate the opportunities

  20. Risk stratification for major adverse cardiac events and ventricular tachyarrhythmias by cardiac MRI in patients with cardiac sarcoidosis

    PubMed Central

    Yasuda, Masakazu; Iwanaga, Yoshitaka; Kato, Takao; Izumi, Toshiaki; Inuzuka, Yasutaka; Nakamura, Takashi; Miyaji, Yuki; Kawamura, Takayuki; Ikeguchi, Shigeru; Inoko, Moriaki; Kurita, Takashi; Miyazaki, Shunichi

    2016-01-01

    Background The presence of myocardial fibrosis by cardiac MRI has prognostic value in cardiac sarcoidosis, and localisation may be equally relevant to clinical outcomes. Objective We aimed to analyse cardiac damage and function in detail and explore the relationship with clinical outcomes in patients with cardiac sarcoidosis using cardiac MRI. Methods We included 81 consecutive patients with cardiac sarcoidosis undergoing cardiac MR. Left ventricular mass and fibrosis mass were calculated, and localisation was analysed using a 17-segment model. Participants underwent follow-up through 2015, and the development of major adverse cardiac events including ventricular tachyarrhythmias was recorded. Results Increased left ventricular fibrosis mass was associated with increased prevalence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias (p<0.001). When localisation was defined as the sum of late gadolinium enhancement in the left ventricular basal anterior and basal anteroseptal areas, or the right ventricular area, it was associated with ventricular tachyarrhythmias (p<0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis during a median follow-up of 22.1 months showed that both the mass and localisation groupings for fibrosis were significantly associated with major adverse cardiac events or ventricular tachyarrhythmias and that when combined, the risk stratification was better than for each variable alone (p<0.001, respectively). By Cox-proportional hazard risk analysis, the localisation grouping was an independent predictor for the both. Conclusions In patients with cardiac sarcoidosis, both fibrosis mass and its localisation to the basal anterior/anteroseptal left ventricle, or right ventricle was associated with the development of major adverse cardiac events or ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Cardiac MR with late gadolinium enhancement may be useful for improving risk stratification in patients with cardiac sarcoidosis. PMID:27547432

  1. Integrated e-Health approach based on vascular ultrasound and pulse wave analysis for asymptomatic atherosclerosis detection and cardiovascular risk stratification in the community.

    PubMed

    Santana, Daniel Bia; Zócalo, Yanina A; Armentano, Ricardo L

    2012-03-01

    New strategies are urgently needed to identify subjects at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) development or complications. A National Public University Center (CUiiDARTE) was created in Uruguay, based on six main pillars: 1) integration of experts in different disciplines and creation of multidisciplinary teams, 2) incidence in public and professional education programs to give training in the use of new technologies and to shift the focus from ACVD treatment to disease prevention, 3) implementation of free vascular studies in the community (distributed rather than centralized healthcare), 4) innovation and application of e-Health and noninvasive technology and approaches, 5) design and development of a biomedical approach to determine the target population and patient workflow, and 6) improvement in individual risk estimation and differentiation between aging and ACVD-related arterial changes using population-based epidemiological and statistical patient-specific models. This work describes main features of CUiiDARTE project implementation, the scientific and technological steps and innovations done for individual risk stratification, and sub-clinical ACVD diagnosis. PMID:22271835

  2. Pain after total knee arthroplasty: a narrative review focusing on the stratification of patients at risk for persistent pain.

    PubMed

    Lavand'homme, P; Thienpont, E

    2015-10-01

    The patient with a painful arthritic knee awaiting total knee arthroplasty (TKA) requires a multidisciplinary approach. Optimal control of acute post-operative pain and the prevention of chronic persistent pain remains a challenge. The aim of this paper is to evaluate whether stratification of patients can help identify those who are at particular risk for severe acute or chronic pain. Intense acute post-operative pain, which is itself a risk factor for chronic pain, is more common in younger, obese female patients and those suffering from central pain sensitisation. Pre-operative pain, in the knee or elsewhere in the body, predisposes to central sensitisation. Pain due to osteoarthritis of the knee may also trigger neuropathic pain and may be associated with chronic medication like opioids, leading to a state of nociceptive sensitisation called 'opioid-induced hyperalgesia'. Finally, genetic and personality related risk factors may also put patients at a higher risk for the development of chronic pain. Those identified as at risk for chronic pain would benefit from specific peri-operative management including reduction in opioid intake pre-operatively, the peri-operative use of antihyperalgesic drugs such as ketamine and gabapentinoids, and a close post-operative follow-up in a dedicated chronic pain clinic. PMID:26430086

  3. Outcomes of DES in Diabetic and Nondiabetic Patients with Complex Coronary Artery Disease after Risk Stratification by the SYNTAX Score

    PubMed Central

    Loutfi, Mohamed; Sadaka, Mohamed A.; Sobhy, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk of adverse outcomes after coronary revascularization. Controversy persists regarding the optimal revascularization strategy for diabetic patients with multivessel coronary artery disease (MVD). AIM The aim of this study was to assess the outcomes of drug-eluting stent (DES) insertion in DM and non-DM patients with complex coronary artery disease (CAD) after risk stratification by the percutaneous coronary intervention with taxus and cardiac surgery (SYNTAX) score. METHODS AND RESULTS We performed multivessel percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for 601 lesions in 243 DM patients and 1,029 lesions in 401 non-DM patients. All included patients had MVD and one or more lesions of type B2/C. The two-year outcomes and event rates were estimated in the DM and non-DM patients using Kaplan–Meier analyses. The baseline SYNTAX score was ≤22 in 84.8% vs. 84%, P = 0.804, and 23–32 in 15.2% vs. 16%, P = 0.804, of the DM and non-DM patients, respectively. The number of diseased segments treated (2.57 ± 0.75 vs. 2.47 ± 0.72; P = 0.066) and stents implanted per patient (2.41 ± 0.63 vs. 2.32 ± 0.54; P = 0.134) were similar in both groups. After a mean follow-up of 642 ± 175 days, there were no differences in the major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; 26.7% vs. 20.9%; P = 0.091), composite end point of all-cause death/myocardial infarction (MI)/stroke (12.3% vs. 9%; P = 0.172), individual MACCE components of death (3.7% vs. 3.2%; P = 0.754), MI (6.6% vs. 4%; P = 0.142), and absence of stroke in the DM and non-DM patients. An increased need for repeat revascularization was observed in DM patients (18.5% vs. 10.2%; P = 0.003). In the multivariate analysis, DM was an independent predictor of repeat revascularization (hazard ratio: 1.818; 95% confidence interval: 1.162–2.843; P = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS DES implantation provides favorable early and mid-term results in both DM and non-DM patients undergoing PCI for

  4. Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin

    2007-01-01

    Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

  5. Objective estimates improve risk stratification for primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Rupal J.; Diamond, Joshua M.; Cantu, Edward; Flesch, Judd; Lee, James C.; Lederer, David J.; Lama, Vibha N.; Orens, Jonathon; Weinacker, Ann; Wilkes, David S.; Roe, David; Bhorade, Sangeeta; Wille, Keith M.; Ware, Lorraine B.; Palmer, Scott M.; Crespo, Maria; Demissie, Ejigayehu; Sonnet, Joshua; Shah, Ashish; Kawut, Steven M.; Bellamy, Scarlett L.; Localio, A. Russell; Christie, Jason D.

    2016-01-01

    Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a major cause of early mortality after lung transplant. We aimed to define objective estimates of PGD risk based on readily available clinical variables, using a prospective study of 11 centers in Lung Transplant Outcomes Group (LTOG). Derivation included 1255 subjects from 2002–2010; with separate validation in 382 subjects accrued from 2011–2012. We used logistic regression to identify predictors of grade 3 PGD at 48/72 hours, and decision curve methods to assess impact on clinical decisions. 211/1255 subjects in the derivation and 56/382 subjects in the validation developed PGD. We developed 3 prediction models, where low-risk recipients had a normal BMI (18.5–25 kg/m2), COPD/CF, and absent or mild PH (mPAP< 40mmHg). All others were considered higher-risk. Low-risk recipients had a predicted PGD risk of 4–7%, and high-risk a predicted PGD risk of 15–18%. Adding a donor-smoking lung to a higher-risk recipient significantly increased PGD risk, although risk did not change in low-risk recipients. Validation demonstrated that probability estimates were generally accurate and that models worked best at baseline PGD incidences between 5–25%. We conclude that valid estimates of PGD risk can be produced using readily-available clinical variables. PMID:25877792

  6. MRI Risk Stratification for Tumor Relapse in Rectal Cancer Achieving Pathological Complete Remission after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy and Curative Resection

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Honsoul; Myoung, Sungmin; Koom, Woong Sub; Kim, Nam Kyu; Kim, Myeong-Jin; Ahn, Joong Bae; Hur, Hyuk; Lim, Joon Seok

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Rectal cancer patients achieving pCR are known to have an excellent prognosis, yet no widely accepted consensus on risk stratification and post-operative management (e.g., adjuvant therapy) has been established. This study aimed to identify magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) high-risk factors for tumor relapse in pathological complete remission (pCR) achieved by rectal cancer patients who have undergone neoadjuvant concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CRT) and curative resection. Materials and Methods We analyzed 88 (male/female = 55/33, median age, 59.5 years [range 34–78]) pCR-proven rectal cancer patients who had undergone pre-CRT MRI, CRT, post-CRT MRI and curative surgery between July 2005 and December 2012. Patients were observed for post-operative tumor relapse. We analyzed the pre/post-CRT MRIs for parameters including mrT stage, mesorectal fascia (mrMRF) status, tumor volume, tumor regression grade (mrTRG), nodal status (mrN), and extramural vessel invasion (mrEMVI). We performed univariate analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Results Post-operative tumor relapse occurred in seven patients (8.0%, n = 7/88) between 5.7 and 50.7 (median 16.8) months. No significant relevance was observed between tumor volume, volume reduction rate, mrTRG, mrT, or mrN status. Meanwhile, positive mrMRF (Ppre-CRT = 0.018, Ppre/post-CRT = 0.006) and mrEMVI (Ppre-CRT = 0.026, Ppre-/post-CRT = 0.008) were associated with higher incidence of post-operative tumor relapse. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed a higher risk of tumor relapse in patients with positive mrMRF (Ppre-CRT = 0.029, Ppre-/post-CRT = 0.009) or mrEMVI (Ppre-CRT = 0.024, Ppre-/post-CRT = 0.003). Conclusion Positive mrMRF and mrEMVI status was associated with a higher risk of post-operative tumor relapse of pCR achieved by rectal cancer patients, and therefore, can be applied for risk stratification and to individualize treatment plans. PMID:26730717

  7. Outcome Predictors in Prosthetic Joint Infections--Validation of a risk stratification score for Prosthetic Joint Infections in 120 cases.

    PubMed

    Wimmer, Matthias D; Randau, Thomas M; Friedrich, Max J; Ploeger, Milena M; Schmolder, Jan; Strauss, Andreas C; Pennekamp, Peter H; Vavken, Patrick; Gravius, Sascha

    2016-03-01

    Prosthetic joint infections are a major challenge in total joint arthroplasty, especially in times of accumulating drug resistancies. Even though predictive risk classifications are a widely accepted tool to define a suitable treatment protocol a classification is still missing considering the difficulty in treating the -causative pathogen antibiotically. In this study, we present and evaluate a new predictive risk stratification for prosthetic joint infections in 120 cases, treated with a two-stage exchange. Treatment outcomes in 120 patients with proven prosthetic joint infections in hip and knee prostheses were regressed on time of infection, systemic risk factors, local risk factors and the difficulty in treating the causing pathogen. The main outcome variable was "definitely free of infection" after two years as published. Age, gender, and BMI were included as covariables and analyzed in a logistic regression model. 66 male and 54 female patients, with a mean age at surgery of 68.3 years±12.0 and a mean BMI of 26.05±6.21 were included in our survey and followed for 29.0±11.3 months. We found a significant association (p<0.001) between our score and the outcome parameters evaluated. Age, gender and BMI did not show a significant association with the outcome. These results show that our score is an independent and reliable predictor for the cure rate in prosthetic joint infections in hip and knee prostheses treated within a two-stage exchange protocol. Our score illustrates, that there is a statistically significant, sizable decrease in cure rate with an increase in score. In patients with prosthetic joint infections the validation of a risk score may help to identify patients with local and systemic risk factors or with infectious organisms identified as "difficult to treat" prior to the treatment or the decision about the treatment concept. Thus, appropriate extra care should be considered and provided. PMID:26984667

  8. Risk stratification and rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department – a quasi-randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background To determine if risk stratification followed by rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department (ED) reduced functional decline, ED reattendance and hospitalisation. Method This was a quasi-randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomised by the last digit of their national registration identity card (NRIC). Odd number controls received standard ED care; even number patients received geriatric screening, followed by intervention and/or onward referrals. Patients were followed up for 12 months. Results There were 500 and 280 patients in the control and intervention groups. The intervention group had higher Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST) scores (34.3% vs 25.4% TRST ≥3, p = 0.01) and lower baseline Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) scores (22.84 vs 24.18, p < 0.01). 82.9% of the intervention group had unmet needs; 62.1% accepted our interventions. Common positive findings were fall risk (65.0%), vision (61.4%), and footwear (58.2%). 28.2% were referred to a geriatric clinic and 11.8% were admitted. 425 (85.0%) controls and 234 (83.6%) in the intervention group completed their follow-up. After adjusting for TRST and baseline IADL, the intervention group had significant preservation in function (Basic ADL -0.99 vs -0.24, p < 0.01; IADL -2.57 vs +0.45, p < 0.01) at 12 months. The reduction in ED reattendance (OR0.75, CI 0.55-1.03, p = 0.07) and hospitalization (OR0.77, CI0.57-1.04, p = 0.09) were not significant, however the real difference would have been wider as 21.2% of the control group received geriatric screening at the request of the ED doctor. A major limitation was that a large proportion of patients who were randomized to the intervention group either refused (18.8%) or left the ED before being approached (32.0%). These two groups were not followed up, and hence were excluded in our analysis. Conclusion Risk stratification and focused geriatric screening in ED resulted in significant preservation

  9. Malaria ecotypes and stratification.

    PubMed

    Schapira, Allan; Boutsika, Konstantina

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna

  10. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    SciTech Connect

    Koontz, Bridget F.; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Vujaskovic, Zeljko; Moul, Judd; Lee, W. Robert

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  11. Risk stratification in perforated duodenal ulcers. A prospective validation of predictive factors.

    PubMed Central

    Boey, J; Choi, S K; Poon, A; Alagaratnam, T T

    1987-01-01

    In order to validate a previously derived set of risk factors, 259 consecutive patients who had simple closure or definitive operation for perforated duodenal ulcers were studied prospectively. Major medical illness, preoperative shock, and longstanding perforation (more than 24 hours) correctly predicted the outcome in 93.8% of patients. Most importantly, 16 patients (6.2%) who died after operation could be identified (no false-negative error). The mortality rate increased progressively with increasing numbers of risk factors: 0%, 10%, 45.5%, and 100% in patients with none, one, two, and all three risk factors, respectively. These findings underscore the importance of patient selection and the feasibility of a risk grading system in guiding surgical management. Definitive surgery can be done safely in good-risk patients. Simple closure is preferable in those patients with uncomplicated perforations if any risk factor is present. Truncal vagotomy and drainage may be required if there is coexisting bleeding or stenosis. Nonoperative treatment deserves re-evaluation in patients with all three risk factors because of their uniformly dismal outcome after operation. PMID:3800459

  12. An Official American Thoracic Society Clinical Practice Guideline: Diagnosis, Risk Stratification, and Management of Pulmonary Hypertension of Sickle Cell Disease

    PubMed Central

    Klings, Elizabeth S.; Machado, Roberto F.; Barst, Robyn J.; Morris, Claudia R.; Mubarak, Kamal K.; Gordeuk, Victor R.; Kato, Gregory J.; Ataga, Kenneth I.; Gibbs, J. Simon; Castro, Oswaldo; Rosenzweig, Erika B.; Sood, Namita; Hsu, Lewis; Wilson, Kevin C.; Telen, Marilyn J.; DeCastro, Laura M.; Krishnamurti, Lakshmanan; Steinberg, Martin H.; Badesch, David B.; Gladwin, Mark T.

    2014-01-01

    Background: In adults with sickle cell disease (SCD), an increased tricuspid regurgitant velocity (TRV) measured by Doppler echocardiography, an increased serum N-terminal pro–brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) level, and pulmonary hypertension (PH) diagnosed by right heart catheterization (RHC) are independent risk factors for mortality. Methods: A multidisciplinary committee was formed by clinician-investigators experienced in the management of patients with PH and/or SCD. Clinically important questions were posed, related evidence was appraised, and questions were answered with evidence-based recommendations. Target audiences include all clinicians who take care of patients with SCD. Results: Mortality risk stratification guides decision making. An increased risk for mortality is defined as a TRV equal to or greater than 2.5 m/second, an NT-pro-BNP level equal to or greater than 160 pg/ml, or RHC-confirmed PH. For patients identified as having increased mortality risk, we make a strong recommendation for hydroxyurea as first-line therapy and a weak recommendation for chronic transfusions as an alternative therapy. For all patients with SCD with elevated TRV alone or elevated NT-pro-BNP alone, and for patients with SCD with RHC-confirmed PH with elevated pulmonary artery wedge pressure and low pulmonary vascular resistance, we make a strong recommendation against PAH-specific therapy. However, for select patients with SCD with RHC-confirmed PH who have elevated pulmonary vascular resistance and normal pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, we make a weak recommendation for either prostacyclin agonist or endothelin receptor antagonist therapy and a strong recommendation against phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor therapy. Conclusions: Evidence-based recommendations for the management of patients with SCD with increased mortality risk are provided, but will require frequent reassessment and updating. PMID:24628312

  13. Arrhythmia risk stratification of patients after myocardial infarction using personalized heart models.

    PubMed

    Arevalo, Hermenegild J; Vadakkumpadan, Fijoy; Guallar, Eliseo; Jebb, Alexander; Malamas, Peter; Wu, Katherine C; Trayanova, Natalia A

    2016-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) from arrhythmias is a leading cause of mortality. For patients at high SCD risk, prophylactic insertion of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) reduces mortality. Current approaches to identify patients at risk for arrhythmia are, however, of low sensitivity and specificity, which results in a low rate of appropriate ICD therapy. Here, we develop a personalized approach to assess SCD risk in post-infarction patients based on cardiac imaging and computational modelling. We construct personalized three-dimensional computer models of post-infarction hearts from patients' clinical magnetic resonance imaging data and assess the propensity of each model to develop arrhythmia. In a proof-of-concept retrospective study, the virtual heart test significantly outperformed several existing clinical metrics in predicting future arrhythmic events. The robust and non-invasive personalized virtual heart risk assessment may have the potential to prevent SCD and avoid unnecessary ICD implantations. PMID:27164184

  14. Arrhythmia risk stratification of patients after myocardial infarction using personalized heart models

    PubMed Central

    Arevalo, Hermenegild J.; Vadakkumpadan, Fijoy; Guallar, Eliseo; Jebb, Alexander; Malamas, Peter; Wu, Katherine C.; Trayanova, Natalia A.

    2016-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) from arrhythmias is a leading cause of mortality. For patients at high SCD risk, prophylactic insertion of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) reduces mortality. Current approaches to identify patients at risk for arrhythmia are, however, of low sensitivity and specificity, which results in a low rate of appropriate ICD therapy. Here, we develop a personalized approach to assess SCD risk in post-infarction patients based on cardiac imaging and computational modelling. We construct personalized three-dimensional computer models of post-infarction hearts from patients' clinical magnetic resonance imaging data and assess the propensity of each model to develop arrhythmia. In a proof-of-concept retrospective study, the virtual heart test significantly outperformed several existing clinical metrics in predicting future arrhythmic events. The robust and non-invasive personalized virtual heart risk assessment may have the potential to prevent SCD and avoid unnecessary ICD implantations. PMID:27164184

  15. The role of early 18F-FDG PET/CT in therapeutic management and ongoing risk stratification of high/intermediate-risk thyroid carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Triviño Ibáñez, E M; Muros, M A; Torres Vela, E; Llamas Elvira, J M

    2016-03-01

    Little is known about the role in ongoing risk stratification of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) performed early after radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). The aim of the study is to investigate whether 18F-FDG PET/CT performed early after RAI ablation is useful to detect disease and to influence therapy and ongoing risk stratification. Patients with high/intermediate risk of recurrent DTC were included. 18F-FDG PET/CT scan was performed within 6 months after RAI ablation. We confirmed results with other imaging techniques, pathology reports, or follow-up. We classified the patient response as excellent, acceptable, or incomplete. Modified Hicks criteria were used to evaluate clinical impact. We included 81 patients with high/intermediate risk of recurrent DTC. Forty-one (50.6 %) had positive uptake in 18F-FDG PET/CT, with negative (131)I whole-body scan ((131)I WBS). Sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of 18F-FDG PET/CT were 92.5, 90.2, and 91.4 %, respectively. 18F-FDG PET/CT results had an impact on therapy in 38.3 % of patients. One year after initial therapy, 45.7 % showed excellent response, 8.6 % acceptable response, and 45.7 % incomplete response. A statistically significant relationship was found between negative 18F-FDG PET/CT and excellent response (80 vs. 12.2 %, p < 0.001; OR 52.8). 18F-FDG PET/CT scan performed early in surveillance of patients with high/intermediate-risk thyroid carcinoma provides important additional information not available with conventional follow-up methods and had a high impact on therapy. A negative 18F-FDG PET/CT predicts an excellent response to therapy in the new ongoing risk stratification. PMID:26224589

  16. Performance of 2014 NICE defibrillator implantation guidelines in heart failure risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Cubbon, Richard M; Witte, Klaus K; Kearney, Lorraine C; Gierula, John; Byrom, Rowenna; Paton, Maria; Sengupta, Anshuman; Patel, Peysh A; MN Walker, Andrew; Cairns, David A; Rajwani, Adil; Hall, Alistair S; Sapsford, Robert J; Kearney, Mark T

    2016-01-01

    Objective Define the real-world performance of recently updated National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (TA314) on implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) use in people with chronic heart failure. Methods Multicentre prospective cohort study of 1026 patients with stable chronic heart failure, associated with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤45% recruited in cardiology outpatient departments of four UK hospitals. We assessed the capacity of TA314 to identify patients at increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) or appropriate ICD shock. Results The overall risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock was 2.1 events per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.7 to 2.6). Patients meeting TA314 ICD criteria (31.1%) were 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.6 to 3.9) more likely to suffer SCD or appropriate ICD shock; they were also 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 2.2) more likely to die from non-cardiovascular causes and 1.6-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 2.3) more likely to die from progressive heart failure. Patients with diabetes not meeting TA314 criteria experienced comparable absolute risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock to patients without diabetes who met TA314 criteria. Patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy not meeting TA314 criteria experienced comparable absolute risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock to patients with non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy who met TA314 criteria. Conclusions TA314 can identify patients with reduced LVEF who are at increased relative risk of sudden death. Clinicians should also consider clinical context and the absolute risk of SCD when advising patients about the potential risks and benefits of ICD therapy. PMID:26857212

  17. Developing and evaluating an automated appendicitis risk stratification algorithm for pediatric patients in the emergency department

    PubMed Central

    Deleger, Louise; Brodzinski, Holly; Zhai, Haijun; Li, Qi; Lingren, Todd; Kirkendall, Eric S; Alessandrini, Evaline; Solti, Imre

    2013-01-01

    Objective To evaluate a proposed natural language processing (NLP) and machine-learning based automated method to risk stratify abdominal pain patients by analyzing the content of the electronic health record (EHR). Methods We analyzed the EHRs of a random sample of 2100 pediatric emergency department (ED) patients with abdominal pain, including all with a final diagnosis of appendicitis. We developed an automated system to extract relevant elements from ED physician notes and lab values and to automatically assign a risk category for acute appendicitis (high, equivocal, or low), based on the Pediatric Appendicitis Score. We evaluated the performance of the system against a manually created gold standard (chart reviews by ED physicians) for recall, specificity, and precision. Results The system achieved an average F-measure of 0.867 (0.869 recall and 0.863 precision) for risk classification, which was comparable to physician experts. Recall/precision were 0.897/0.952 in the low-risk category, 0.855/0.886 in the high-risk category, and 0.854/0.766 in the equivocal-risk category. The information that the system required as input to achieve high F-measure was available within the first 4 h of the ED visit. Conclusions Automated appendicitis risk categorization based on EHR content, including information from clinical notes, shows comparable performance to physician chart reviewers as measured by their inter-annotator agreement and represents a promising new approach for computerized decision support to promote application of evidence-based medicine at the point of care. PMID:24130231

  18. Multiple myeloma: 2016 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Rajkumar, S Vincent

    2016-07-01

    Multiple myeloma accounts for approximately 10% of hematologic malignancies.The diagnosis requires ≥10% clonal bone marrow plasma cells or a biopsy proven plasmacytoma plus evidence of one or more multiple myeloma defining events (MDE): CRAB (hypercalcemia, renal failure, anemia, or lytic bone lesions) features felt related to the plasma cell disorder, bone marrow clonal plasmacytosis ≥60%, serum involved/uninvolved free light chain (FLC) ratio ≥100 (provided involved FLC is ≥100 mg/L), or >1 focal lesion on magnetic resonance imaging. Patients with del(17p), t(14;16), and t(14;20) have high-risk multiple myeloma. Patients with t(4;14) translocation and gain(1q) have intermediate-risk. All others are considered standard-risk. Initial treatment consists of bortezomib, lenalidomide, dexamethasone (VRD). In high-risk patients, carfilzomib, lenalidomide, dexamethasone (KRD) is an alternative to VRD. In eligible patients, initial therapy is given for approximately 3-4 months followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). Standard risk patients can opt for delayed ASCT at first relapse. Patients not candidates for transplant are treated with Rd until progression, or alternatively, a triplet regimen such as VRD for approximately 12-18 months. After ASCT, lenalidomide maintenance is considered for standard risk patients especially in those who are not in very good partial response or better, while maintenance with a bortezomib-based regimen is needed for patients with intermediate or high-risk disease. Patients with indolent relapse can be treated with 2-drug or 3-drug combinations. Patients with more aggressive relapse require a triplet regimen or a combination of multiple active agents. Am. J. Hematol. 91:720-734, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27291302

  19. Sudden Cardiac Risk Stratification with Electrocardiographic Indices - A Review on Computational Processing, Technology Transfer, and Scientific Evidence.

    PubMed

    Gimeno-Blanes, Francisco J; Blanco-Velasco, Manuel; Barquero-Pérez, Óscar; García-Alberola, Arcadi; Rojo-Álvarez, José L

    2016-01-01

    Great effort has been devoted in recent years to the development of sudden cardiac risk predictors as a function of electric cardiac signals, mainly obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. But these prediction techniques are still seldom used in clinical practice, partly due to its limited diagnostic accuracy and to the lack of consensus about the appropriate computational signal processing implementation. This paper addresses a three-fold approach, based on ECG indices, to structure this review on sudden cardiac risk stratification. First, throughout the computational techniques that had been widely proposed for obtaining these indices in technical literature. Second, over the scientific evidence, that although is supported by observational clinical studies, they are not always representative enough. And third, via the limited technology transfer of academy-accepted algorithms, requiring further meditation for future systems. We focus on three families of ECG derived indices which are tackled from the aforementioned viewpoints, namely, heart rate turbulence (HRT), heart rate variability (HRV), and T-wave alternans. In terms of computational algorithms, we still need clearer scientific evidence, standardizing, and benchmarking, siting on advanced algorithms applied over large and representative datasets. New scenarios like electronic health recordings, big data, long-term monitoring, and cloud databases, will eventually open new frameworks to foresee suitable new paradigms in the near future. PMID:27014083

  20. Sudden Cardiac Risk Stratification with Electrocardiographic Indices - A Review on Computational Processing, Technology Transfer, and Scientific Evidence

    PubMed Central

    Gimeno-Blanes, Francisco J.; Blanco-Velasco, Manuel; Barquero-Pérez, Óscar; García-Alberola, Arcadi; Rojo-Álvarez, José L.

    2016-01-01

    Great effort has been devoted in recent years to the development of sudden cardiac risk predictors as a function of electric cardiac signals, mainly obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. But these prediction techniques are still seldom used in clinical practice, partly due to its limited diagnostic accuracy and to the lack of consensus about the appropriate computational signal processing implementation. This paper addresses a three-fold approach, based on ECG indices, to structure this review on sudden cardiac risk stratification. First, throughout the computational techniques that had been widely proposed for obtaining these indices in technical literature. Second, over the scientific evidence, that although is supported by observational clinical studies, they are not always representative enough. And third, via the limited technology transfer of academy-accepted algorithms, requiring further meditation for future systems. We focus on three families of ECG derived indices which are tackled from the aforementioned viewpoints, namely, heart rate turbulence (HRT), heart rate variability (HRV), and T-wave alternans. In terms of computational algorithms, we still need clearer scientific evidence, standardizing, and benchmarking, siting on advanced algorithms applied over large and representative datasets. New scenarios like electronic health recordings, big data, long-term monitoring, and cloud databases, will eventually open new frameworks to foresee suitable new paradigms in the near future. PMID:27014083

  1. Intensity of Left Atrial Spontaneous Echo Contrast as a Correlate for Stroke Risk Stratification in Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Yuanping; Ji, Lijing; Liu, Jian; Wu, Juefei; Wang, Yan; Shen, Shuxin; Guo, Shengcun; Jian, Rong; Chen, Gangbin; Wei, Xuan; Liao, Wangjun; Kutty, Shelby; Liao, Yulin; Bin, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    The intensity of left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (LASEC) by transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) has been proposed as an important variable in the stratification of thromboembolic risk, particularly in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). We hypothesized that the quantification of LASEC by ultrasound will improve its utility in predicting subsequent stroke events in patients with NVAF. Patients (n = 206) with definite NVAF receiving TEE were included for this prospective cohort study. Baseline clinical risk factors of stroke, CHADS2 score and CHA2DS2-Vasc, left atrial thrombus (LAT), the five-grades of LASEC and video intensity (VI) value of LASEC were measured. During 2 years follow-up, 20 patients (9.7%) developed stroke. VI value of LASEC in the patients with stroke was higher compared to patients without stroke (25.30 ± 3.61 vs. 8.65 ± 0.81, p < 0.001). On logistic regression analysis, LAT, qualitative LASEC, graded LASEC, VI value of LASEC and CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc score were independent predictors of stroke. Among them, the highest area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) in predicting stroke was VI value of LASEC (p < 0.05). These results show that quantification of LASEC by VI value is the most favorable predictor of stroke in patients with NVAF, and calls for improving the utility of LASEC in predicting subsequent stroke events. PMID:27277939

  2. Intensity of Left Atrial Spontaneous Echo Contrast as a Correlate for Stroke Risk Stratification in Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yuanping; Ji, Lijing; Liu, Jian; Wu, Juefei; Wang, Yan; Shen, Shuxin; Guo, Shengcun; Jian, Rong; Chen, Gangbin; Wei, Xuan; Liao, Wangjun; Kutty, Shelby; Liao, Yulin; Bin, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    The intensity of left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (LASEC) by transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) has been proposed as an important variable in the stratification of thromboembolic risk, particularly in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). We hypothesized that the quantification of LASEC by ultrasound will improve its utility in predicting subsequent stroke events in patients with NVAF. Patients (n = 206) with definite NVAF receiving TEE were included for this prospective cohort study. Baseline clinical risk factors of stroke, CHADS2 score and CHA2DS2-Vasc, left atrial thrombus (LAT), the five-grades of LASEC and video intensity (VI) value of LASEC were measured. During 2 years follow-up, 20 patients (9.7%) developed stroke. VI value of LASEC in the patients with stroke was higher compared to patients without stroke (25.30 ± 3.61 vs. 8.65 ± 0.81, p < 0.001). On logistic regression analysis, LAT, qualitative LASEC, graded LASEC, VI value of LASEC and CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc score were independent predictors of stroke. Among them, the highest area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) in predicting stroke was VI value of LASEC (p < 0.05). These results show that quantification of LASEC by VI value is the most favorable predictor of stroke in patients with NVAF, and calls for improving the utility of LASEC in predicting subsequent stroke events. PMID:27277939

  3. Non-Rhabdomyosarcoma Soft Tissue Sarcomas in Children: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Analysis Validating COG Risk Stratifications

    SciTech Connect

    Waxweiler, Timothy V.; Rusthoven, Chad G.; Proper, Michelle S.; Cost, Carrye R.; Cost, Nicholas G.; Donaldson, Nathan; Garrington, Timothy; Greffe, Brian S.; Heare, Travis; Macy, Margaret E.; Liu, Arthur K.

    2015-06-01

    Purpose: Non-rhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcomas (NRSTS) are a heterogeneous group of sarcomas that encompass over 35 histologies. With an incidence of ∼500 cases per year in the United States in those <20 years of age, NRSTS are rare and therefore difficult to study in pediatric populations. We used the large Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to validate the prognostic ability of the Children's Oncology Group (COG) risk classification system and to define patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. Methods and Materials: From SEER data from 1988 to 2007, we identified patients ≤18 years of age with NRSTS. Data for age, sex, year of diagnosis, race, registry, histology, grade, primary size, primary site, stage, radiation therapy, and survival outcomes were analyzed. Patients with nonmetastatic grossly resected low-grade tumors of any size or high-grade tumors ≤5 cm were considered low risk. Cases of nonmetastatic tumors that were high grade, >5 cm, or unresectable were considered intermediate risk. Patients with nodal or distant metastases were considered high risk. Results: A total of 941 patients met the review criteria. On univariate analysis, black race, malignant peripheral nerve sheath (MPNST) histology, tumors >5 cm, nonextremity primary, lymph node involvement, radiation therapy, and higher risk group were associated with significantly worse overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). On multivariate analysis, MPNST histology, chemotherapy-resistant histology, and higher risk group were significantly poor prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Compared to low-risk patients, intermediate patients showed poorer OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 6.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.53-10.47, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 6.27; 95% CI: 3.44-11.43, P<.001), and high-risk patients had the worst OS (HR: 13.35, 95% CI: 8.18-21.76, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 14.65, 95% CI: 8.49-25.28, P<.001). Conclusions: The current COG risk group

  4. Frailty and cardiovascular disease: potential role of gait speed in surgical risk stratification in older adults

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Michael A.

    2015-01-01

    Frailty is a state of late life decline and vulnerability, typified by physical weakness and decreased physiologic reserve. The epidemiology and pathophysiology of frailty share features with those of cardiovascular disease. Gait speed can be used as a measure of frailty and is a powerful predictor of mortality. Advancing age is a potent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and has been associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Older adults comprise approximately half of cardiac surgery patients, and account for nearly 80% of the major complications and deaths following surgery. The ability of traditional risk models to predict mortality and major morbidity in older patients being considered for cardiac surgery may improve if frailty, as measured by gait speed, is included in their assessment. It is possible that in the future frailty assessment may assist in choosing among therapies (e.g., surgical vs. percutaneous aortic valve replacement for patients with aortic stenosis). PMID:25678904

  5. Call for standardized definitions of osteoarthritis and risk stratification for clinical trials and clinical use.

    PubMed

    Kraus, V B; Blanco, F J; Englund, M; Karsdal, M A; Lohmander, L S

    2015-08-01

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is a heterogeneous disorder. The goals of this review are (1) To stimulate use of standardized nomenclature for OA that could serve as building blocks for describing OA and defining OA phenotypes, in short to provide unifying disease concepts for a heterogeneous disorder; and (2) To stimulate establishment of ROAD (Risk of OA Development) and ROAP (Risk of OA Progression) tools analogous to the FRAX™ instrument for predicting risk of fracture in osteoporosis; and (3) To stimulate formulation of tools for identifying disease in its early preradiographic and/or molecular stages - REDI (Reliable Early Disease Identification). Consensus around more sensitive and specific diagnostic criteria for OA could spur development of disease modifying therapies for this entity that has proved so recalcitrant to date. We fully acknowledge that as we move forward, we expect to develop more sophisticated definitions, terminology and tools. PMID:25865392

  6. Diagnosis, risk stratification and management of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smoldering multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    van de Donk, N W C J; Mutis, T; Poddighe, P J; Lokhorst, H M; Zweegman, S

    2016-05-01

    Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is one of the most common premalignant disorders. IgG and IgA MGUS are precursor conditions of multiple myeloma (MM), whereas light-chain MGUS is a precursor condition of light-chain MM. Smoldering MM (SMM) is a precursor condition with higher tumor burden and higher risk of progression to symptomatic MM compared to MGUS. Assessment of the risk of progression of patients with asymptomatic monoclonal gammopathies is based on various factors including clonal burden, as well as biological characteristics, such as cytogenetic abnormalities and light-chain production. Several models have been constructed that are useful in daily practice for predicting risk of progression of MGUS or SMM. Importantly, the plasma cell clone may occasionally be responsible for severe organ damage through the production of a M-protein which deposits in tissues or has autoantibody activity. These disorders are rare and often require therapy directed at eradication of the underlying clone. Importantly, recent studies have shown that asymptomatic patients with a bone marrow plasma cell percentage ≥60%, free light-chain ratio ≥100, or >1 focal lesion on MRI (myeloma-defining events) have a 80% risk of developing symptomatic MM within 2 years. These patients are now considered to have MM requiring therapy, similar to patients with symptomatic disease. In this review, we provide an overview of the new diagnostic criteria of the monoclonal gammopathies and discuss risk of progression to active MM. We also provide recommendations for the management of patients with MGUS and SMM including risk-adapted follow-up. PMID:27161311

  7. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring for risk stratification in obese and non-obese subjects from 10 populations.

    PubMed

    Hansen, T W; Thijs, L; Li, Y; Boggia, J; Liu, Y; Asayama, K; Kikuya, M; Björklund-Bodegård, K; Ohkubo, T; Jeppesen, J; Torp-Pedersen, C; Dolan, E; Kuznetsova, T; Stolarz-Skrzypek, K; Tikhonoff, V; Malyutina, S; Casiglia, E; Nikitin, Y; Lind, L; Sandoya, E; Kawecka-Jaszcz, K; Filipovský, J; Imai, Y; Wang, J; O'Brien, E; Staessen, J A

    2014-09-01

    Overweight clusters with high blood pressure (BP), but the independent contribution of both risk factors remains insufficiently documented. In a prospective population study involving 8467 participants (mean age 54.6 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations, we studied the contribution of body mass index (BMI) to risk over and beyond BP, taking advantage of the superiority of ambulatory over conventional BP. Over 10.6 years (median), 1271 participants (15.0%) died and 1092 (12.9%), 637 (7.5%) and 443 (5.2%) experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular, cardiac or cerebrovascular event. Adjusted for sex and age, low BMI (<20.7 kg m(-2)) predicted death (hazard ratio (HR) vs average risk, 1.52; P<0.0001) and high BMI (> or = 30.9 kg m(-2)) predicted the cardiovascular end point (HR, 1.27; P=0.006). With adjustments including 24-h systolic BP, these HRs were 1.50 (P<0.001) and 0.98 (P=0.91), respectively. Across quartiles of the BMI distribution, 24-h and nighttime systolic BP predicted every end point (1.13 < or = standardized HR < or = 1.67; 0.046 < or = P<0.0001). The interaction between systolic BP and BMI was nonsignificant (P > or = .22). Excluding smokers removed the contribution of BMI categories to the prediction of mortality. In conclusion, BMI only adds to BP in risk stratification for mortality but not for cardiovascular outcomes. Smoking probably explains the association between increased mortality and low BMI. PMID:24430701

  8. Usefulness of semiquantitative analysis of dipyridamole-thallium-201 redistribution for improving risk stratification before vascular surgery

    SciTech Connect

    Levinson, J.R.; Boucher, C.A.; Coley, C.M.; Guiney, T.E.; Strauss, H.W.; Eagle, K.A. )

    1990-08-15

    Preoperative dipyridamole-thallium-201 scanning is sensitive in identifying patients prone to ischemic cardiac complications after vascular surgery, but most patients with redistribution do not have an event after surgery. Therefore, its positive predictive value is limited. To determine which patients with thallium redistribution are at highest risk, dipyridamole-thallium-201 images were interpreted semiquantitatively. Sixty-two consecutive patients with redistribution on preoperative dipyridamole-thallium-201 planar imaging studies were identified. Each thallium scan was then analyzed independently by 2 observers for the number of myocardial segments out of 15, the number of thallium views out of 3 and the number of coronary artery territories with redistribution. Seventeen patients (27%) had postoperative ischemic events, including unstable angina pectoris, ischemic pulmonary edema, myocardial infarction and cardiac death. Thallium predictors of ischemic operative complications included thallium redistribution greater than or equal to 4 myocardial segments (p = 0.03), greater than or equal to 2 of the 3 planar views (p = 0.005) and greater than or equal to 2 coronary territories (p = 0.007). No patient with redistribution in only 1 view had an ischemic event (0 of 15). Thus, determining the extent of redistribution by dipyridamole-thallium-201 scanning improves risk stratification before vascular surgery. Patients with greater numbers of myocardial segments and greater numbers of coronary territories showing thallium-201 redistribution are at higher risk for ischemic cardiac complications. In contrast, when the extent of thallium redistribution is limited, there is a lower risk despite the presence of redistribution.

  9. Adrenomedullin for Risk Stratification of Emergency Patients With Nonspecific Complaints: An Interventional Multicenter Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Nickel, Christian Hans; Messmer, Anna Sarah; Ghanim, Leyla; Ilsemann-Karakoumis, Julia; Giersdorf, Sven; Hertel, Sabine; Ernst, Susanne; Geigy, Nicolas; Bingisser, Roland

    2016-01-01

    Patients with nonspecific complaints (NSC) presenting to the emergency department (ED) are at risk of life-threatening conditions. New stress biomarkers such as the midregional portion of adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) promise to support decision-making. This study tested the following hypotheses: biomarker-assisted disposition of patients with NSC will not increase mortality. Second, discharge from the ED will increase if clinical risk assessment is combined with low MR-proADM levels. Third, inappropriate disposition to a lower level of care will decrease, if clinical assessment is combined with high MR-proADM levels, and fourth that this algorithm is feasible in the ED setting. Prospective, multicenter, randomized, controlled interventional feasibility study with a 30-day follow-up, including patients with NSC. Patients were randomly assigned to either the standard group (decision-making solely based on clinical assessment) or the Novum group (biomarker-assisted). Regarding disposition, patients were assigned to 1 of 3 risk classes: high-risk (admission to hospital), intermediate risk (community geriatric hospital), and low-risk patients (discharge). In the Novum group, in addition to clinical risk assessment, the information of the MR-proADM level was used. Unless there were overruling criteria, patients were transferred or discharged according to the risk assessment. Primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were comparisons of patient disposition and related mortality rates, ED, and hospital length of stay and readmission. The final study cohort consisted of 398 patients (210 in the Standard group and 188 in the Novum group). Overruling, that is, disposition not according to the result of the proposed algorithm occurred in 51 cases. Baseline characteristics between Standard and Novum groups were similar. The mortality rate in the Novum group was 4.3%, as compared to the Standard group mortality of 6.2%, which was not significantly different

  10. Stratification and monitoring of natalizumab-associated progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy risk: recommendations from an expert group

    PubMed Central

    McGuigan, C; Craner, M; Guadagno, J; Kapoor, R; Mazibrada, G; Molyneux, P; Nicholas, R; Palace, J; Pearson, O R; Rog, D; Young, C A

    2016-01-01

    The use of natalizumab for highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) is influenced by the occurrence of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Through measurement of the anti-JCV antibody index, and in combination with the presence or absence of other known risk factors, it may be possible to stratify patients with MS according to their risk of developing PML during treatment with natalizumab and detect early suspected PML using MRI including a diffusion-weighted imaging sequence. This paper describes a practical consensus guideline for treating neurologists, based on current evidence, for the introduction into routine clinical practice of anti-JCV antibody index testing of immunosuppressant-naïve patients with MS, either currently being treated with, or initiating, natalizumab, based on their anti-JCV antibody status. Recommendations for the frequency and type of MRI screening in patients with varying index-associated PML risks are also discussed. This consensus paper presents a simple and pragmatic algorithm to support the introduction of anti-JCV antibody index testing and MRI monitoring into standard PML safety protocols, in order to allow some JCV positive patients who wish to begin or continue natalizumab treatment to be managed with a more individualised analysis of their PML risk. PMID:26492930

  11. Thrombotic risk stratification using computational modeling in patients with coronary artery aneurysms following Kawasaki disease

    PubMed Central

    Sengupta, Dibyendu; Kahn, Andrew M.; Kung, Ethan; Moghadam, Mahdi Esmaily; Shirinsky, Olga; Lyskina, Galina A.; Burns, Jane C.; Marsden, Alison L.

    2016-01-01

    Kawasaki disease (KD) is the leading cause of acquired heart disease in children and can result in life-threatening coronary artery aneurysms in up to 25 % of patients. These aneurysms put patients at risk of thrombus formation, myocardial infarction, and sudden death. Clinicians must therefore decide which patients should be treated with anticoagulant medication, and/or surgical or percutaneous intervention. Current recommendations regarding initiation of anticoagulant therapy are based on anatomy alone with historical data suggesting that patients with aneurysms ≥8 mm are at greatest risk of thrombosis. Given the multitude of variables that influence thrombus formation, we postulated that hemodynamic data derived from patient-specific simulations would more accurately predict risk of thrombosis than maximum diameter alone. Patient-specific blood flow simulations were performed on five KD patients with aneurysms and one KD patient with normal coronary arteries. Key hemodynamic and geometric parameters, including wall shear stress, particle residence time, and shape indices, were extracted from the models and simulations and compared with clinical outcomes. Preliminary fluid structure interaction simulations with radial expansion were performed, revealing modest differences in wall shear stress compared to the rigid wall case. Simulations provide compelling evidence that hemodynamic parameters may be a more accurate predictor of thrombotic risk than aneurysm diameter alone and motivate the need for follow-up studies with a larger cohort. These results suggest that a clinical index incorporating hemodynamic information be used in the future to select patients for anticoagulant therapy. PMID:24722951

  12. miRNA Expression Profiling Enables Risk Stratification in Archived and Fresh Neuroblastoma Tumor Samples

    PubMed Central

    De Preter, Katleen; Mestdagh, Pieter; Vermeulen, Joëlle; Zeka, Fjoralba; Naranjo, Arlene; Bray, Isabella; Castel, Victoria; Chen, Caifu; Drozynska, Elzbieta; Eggert, Angelika; Hogarty, Michael D.; Iżycka-Swieszewska, Ewa; London, Wendy B.; Noguera, Rosa; Piqueras, Marta; Bryan, Kenneth; Schowe, Benjamin; van Sluis, Peter; Molenaar, Jan J.; Schramm, Alexander; Schulte, Johannes H.; Stallings, Raymond L.; Versteeg, Rogier; Laureys, Geneviève; Van Roy, Nadine; Speleman, Frank; Vandesompele, Jo

    2012-01-01

    Purpose More accurate assessment of prognosis is important to further improve the choice of risk-related therapy in neuroblastoma (NB) patients. In this study, we aimed to establish and validate a prognostic miRNA signature for children with NB and tested it in both fresh frozen and archived formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples. Experimental Design Four hundred-thirty human mature miRNAs were profiled in two patient subgroups with maximally divergent clinical courses. Univariate logistic regression analysis was used to select miRNAs correlating with NB patient survival. A 25-miRNA gene signature was built using 51 training samples, tested on 179 test samples, and validated on an independent set of 304 fresh frozen tumor samples and 75 archived FFPE samples. Results The 25-miRNA signature significantly discriminates the test patients with respect to progression-free and overall survival (P < 0.0001), both in the overall population and in the cohort of high-risk patients. Multivariate analysis indicates that the miRNA signature is an independent predictor of patient survival after controlling for current risk factors. The results were confirmed in an external validation set. In contrast to a previously published mRNA classifier, the 25-miRNA signature was found to be predictive for patient survival in a set of 75 FFPE neuroblastoma samples. Conclusions In this study, we present the largest NB miRNA expression study so far, including more than 500 NB patients. We established and validated a robust miRNA classifier, able to identify a cohort of high-risk NB patients at greater risk for adverse outcome using both fresh frozen and archived material. PMID:22031095

  13. Coronary computer tomographic angiography for preoperative risk stratification in patients undergoing liver transplantation.

    PubMed

    Jodocy, Daniel; Abbrederis, Susanne; Graziadei, Ivo W; Vogel, Wolfgang; Pachinger, Otmar; Feuchtner, Gudrun M; Jaschke, Werner; Friedrich, Guy

    2012-09-01

    The assessment of the cardiovascular risk profile in patients with end-stage liver disease is essential prior to liver transplantation (LT) as cardiovascular diseases are major causes of morbidity and mortality in the posttransplant course. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of a 64-slice coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) and coronary calcium scoring (CCS) to predict the postoperative cardiovascular risk of patients assessed for LT. In this single center, observational study we included 54 consecutive patients who were assessed for LT and consequently transplanted. Twenty-four patients (44%) presented with a high CCS above 300 and/or a significant stenosis (>50% percent narrowing due to stenotic plaques) and were further referred to coronary angiography. Three of these patients had a more than 70% LAD stenosis with subsequent angioplasty (n=1) or conservative therapy (n=2). The other patients showed only diffuse CAD without significant stenosis. The remaining 30 patients with normal CTA findings were listed for LT without further tests. None of the 54 patients developed cardiovascular events peri- and postoperatively. This study indicated that CTA combined with CCS is a useful non-invasive imaging technique for pre-LT assessment of coronary artery disease and safe tool in the risk assessment of peri- and postoperative cardiovascular events in patients undergoing LT. PMID:21665396

  14. A novel integrated cytogenetic and genomic classification refines risk stratification in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Moorman, Anthony V; Enshaei, Amir; Schwab, Claire; Wade, Rachel; Chilton, Lucy; Elliott, Alannah; Richardson, Stacey; Hancock, Jeremy; Kinsey, Sally E; Mitchell, Christopher D; Goulden, Nicholas; Vora, Ajay; Harrison, Christine J

    2014-08-28

    Recent genomic studies have provided a refined genetic map of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and increased the number of potential prognostic markers. Therefore, we integrated copy-number alteration data from the 8 most commonly deleted genes, subordinately, with established chromosomal abnormalities to derive a 2-tier genetic classification. The classification was developed using 809 ALL97/99 patients and validated using 742 United Kingdom (UK)ALL2003 patients. Good-risk (GR) genetic features included ETV6-RUNX1, high hyperdiploidy, normal copy-number status for all 8 genes, isolated deletions affecting ETV6/PAX5/BTG1, and ETV6 deletions with a single additional deletion of BTG1/PAX5/CDKN2A/B. All other genetic features were classified as poor risk (PR). Three-quarters of UKALL2003 patients had a GR genetic profile and a significantly improved event-free survival (EFS) (94%) compared with patients with a PR genetic profile (79%). This difference was driven by a lower relapse rate (4% vs 17%), was seen across all patient subgroups, and was independent of other risk factors. Even genetic GR patients with minimal residual disease (>0.01%) at day 29 had an EFS in excess of 90%. In conclusion, the integration of genomic and cytogenetic data defines 2 subgroups with distinct responses to treatment and identifies a large subset of children suitable for treatment deintensification. PMID:24957142

  15. Comparison of nonlinear methods symbolic dynamics, detrended fluctuation, and Poincaré plot analysis in risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Truebner, Sandra; Goernig, Matthias; Figulla, Hans Reiner; Schirdewan, Alexander

    2007-03-01

    Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) has an incidence of about 20/100 000 new cases per annum and accounts for nearly 10 000 deaths per year in the United States. Approximately 36% of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) suffer from cardiac death within five years after diagnosis. Currently applied methods for an early risk prediction in DCM patients are rather insufficient. The objective of this study was to investigate the suitability of short-term nonlinear methods symbolic dynamics (STSD), detrended fluctuation (DFA), and Poincaré plot analysis (PPA) for risk stratification in these patients. From 91 DCM patients and 30 healthy subjects (REF), heart rate and blood pressure variability (HRV, BPV), STSD, DFA, and PPA were analyzed. Measures from BPV analysis, DFA, and PPA revealed highly significant differences (p<0.0011) discriminating REF and DCM. For risk stratification in DCM patients, four parameters from BPV analysis, STSD, and PPA revealed significant differences between low and high risk (maximum sensitivity: 90%, specificity: 90%). These results suggest that STSD and PPA are useful nonlinear methods for enhanced risk stratification in DCM patients.

  16. National Veterans Health Administration inpatient risk stratification models for hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

    PubMed Central

    Cronin, Robert M; VanHouten, Jacob P; Siew, Edward D; Eden, Svetlana K; Fihn, Stephan D; Nielson, Christopher D; Peterson, Josh F; Baker, Clifton R; Ikizler, T Alp; Speroff, Theodore

    2015-01-01

    Objective Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is a potentially preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. Identifying high-risk patients prior to the onset of kidney injury is a key step towards AKI prevention. Materials and Methods A national retrospective cohort of 1,620,898 patient hospitalizations from 116 Veterans Affairs hospitals was assembled from electronic health record (EHR) data collected from 2003 to 2012. HA-AKI was defined at stage 1+, stage 2+, and dialysis. EHR-based predictors were identified through logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) regression, and random forests, and pair-wise comparisons between each were made. Calibration and discrimination metrics were calculated using 50 bootstrap iterations. In the final models, we report odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and importance rankings for predictor variables to evaluate their significance. Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the different model outcomes ranged from 0.746 to 0.758 in stage 1+, 0.714 to 0.720 in stage 2+, and 0.823 to 0.825 in dialysis. Logistic regression had the best AUC in stage 1+ and dialysis. Random forests had the best AUC in stage 2+ but the least favorable calibration plots. Multiple risk factors were significant in our models, including some nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, blood pressure medications, antibiotics, and intravenous fluids given during the first 48 h of admission. Conclusions This study demonstrated that, although all the models tested had good discrimination, performance characteristics varied between methods, and the random forests models did not calibrate as well as the lasso or logistic regression models. In addition, novel modifiable risk factors were explored and found to be significant. PMID:26104740

  17. Incidence, risk stratification, antibiogram of pathogens isolated and clinical outcome of ventilator associated pneumonia

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Alok; Agrawal, Avinash; Mehrotra, Sanjay; Singh, Abhishek; Malik, Shruti; Khanna, Arjun

    2011-01-01

    Background: The initial empirical therapy of Ventilator Associated Pneumonia (VAP) modified based on the knowledge of local microbiological data is associated with decreased morbidity and mortality. The objective was to find the incidence and risk factors associated with VAP, the implicated pathogens and their susceptibility pattern as well as to assess the final clinical outcome in VAP. Materials and Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of 107 patients taken on ventilatory support for two or more days and those not suffering from pneumonia prior were to be taken on ventilator. The study was done over a period of one year. VAP was diagnosed using clinical pulmonary infection score of >6. The mortality, incidence of VAP, frequency of different pathogens isolated, their antibiotic sensitivity pattern, duration of mechanical ventilation and duration of hospital stay were assessed. Statistical Analysis: Univariate analysis, χ2 test and paired t-test. Results: The incidence of VAP was 28.04%. Mortality in VAP group was 46.67%, while in the non-VAP group was 27.28%. High APACHE II score was associated with a high mortality rate as well as increased incidence of VAP. The most common organisms isolated from endotracheal aspirate of patients who developed VAP were Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter baumannii. Most strains of Pseudomonas (55.56%) were resistant to commonly used beta-lactam antibiotics known to be effective against Pseudomonas. All strains of Staphylococcus aureus were MRSA and most isolates of K. pneumoniae (85.71%) were extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing. About 50% isolates of Acinetobacter were resistant to carbapenems. Mortality was highest for infections caused by A. baumannii (83.33%) and K. pneumoniae (71.42%). Conclusions: APACHE II score can be used to stratify the risk of development of VAP and overall risk of mortality. Drug-resistant strains of

  18. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    PubMed

    Magdás, Annamária; Szilágyi, László; Incze, Alexandru

    2016-01-01

    Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV) and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV) was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients), medium as 9.8-12.8 mmHg (48 patients), and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients). Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0113). Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7 ± 23.2 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0261). Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value. PMID:27247614

  19. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    PubMed Central

    Magdás, Annamária; Szilágyi, László; Incze, Alexandru

    2016-01-01

    Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV) and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV) was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients), medium as 9.8–12.8 mmHg (48 patients), and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients). Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0113). Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7 ± 23.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0261). Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value. PMID:27247614

  20. Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia: 2016 update on diagnosis, risk stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Patnaik, Mrinal M; Tefferi, Ayalew

    2016-06-01

    Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is a clonal hematopoietic stem cell disorder characterized by overlapping features of myelodysplastic syndromes and myeloproliferative neoplasms. Diagnosis is based on the presence of persistent (>3 months) peripheral blood monocytosis (>1 × 10(9) /L), along with bone marrow dysplasia. Clonal cytogenetic abnormalities occur in ∼20-30% of patients, while >90% have gene mutations. Mutations involving TET2 (∼60%), SRSF2 (∼50%), ASXL1 (∼40%), and RAS (∼30%) are frequent; with only ASXL1 mutations negatively impacting overall survival. Two molecularly integrated, CMML-specific prognostic models include; the Groupe Français des Myélodysplasies (GFM) and the Molecular Mayo Model (MMM). The GFM model segregates patients into 3 groups based on: age >65 years, WBC >15 × 10(9) /L, anemia, platelets <100 × 10(9) /L, and ASXL1 mutation status, with respective median survivals of 56 (low), 27.4 (intermediate), and 9.2 (high) months. The MMM is based on ASXL1 mutational status, absolute monocyte count >10 × 10(9) /L, hemoglobin <10 g/dL, platelets <100 × 109/L and circulating immature myeloid cells. This model stratifies patients into four groups; high (≥3 risk factors), intermediate-2 (2 risk factors), intermediate-1 (1 risk factor) and low (no risk factors), with median survivals of 16, 31, 59, and 97 months, respectively. Hypomethylating agents such as 5-azacitidine and decitabine are commonly used, with overall response rates of ∼30-40% and complete remission rates of ∼7-17%. Allogeneic stem cell transplant is the only potentially curative option, but is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Individualized therapy, including epigenetic modifiers and small molecule inhibitors, are exciting prospects. Am. J. Hematol. 91:632-642, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27185207

  1. Advances in the translational genomics of neuroblastoma: From improving risk stratification and revealing novel biology to identifying actionable genomic alterations.

    PubMed

    Bosse, Kristopher R; Maris, John M

    2016-01-01

    Neuroblastoma is an embryonal malignancy that commonly affects young children and is remarkably heterogenous in its malignant potential. Recently, the genetic basis of neuroblastoma has come into focus and not only has catalyzed a more comprehensive understanding of neuroblastoma tumorigenesis but also has revealed novel oncogenic vulnerabilities that are being therapeutically leveraged. Neuroblastoma is a model pediatric solid tumor in its use of recurrent genomic alterations, such as high-level MYCN (v-myc avian myelocytomatosis viral oncogene neuroblastoma-derived homolog) amplification, for risk stratification. Given the relative paucity of recurrent, activating, somatic point mutations or gene fusions in primary neuroblastoma tumors studied at initial diagnosis, innovative treatment approaches beyond small molecules targeting mutated or dysregulated kinases will be required moving forward to achieve noticeable improvements in overall patient survival. However, the clonally acquired, oncogenic aberrations in relapsed neuroblastomas are currently being defined and may offer an opportunity to improve patient outcomes with molecularly targeted therapy directed toward aberrantly regulated pathways in relapsed disease. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge about neuroblastoma genetics and genomics, highlighting the improved prognostication and potential therapeutic opportunities that have arisen from recent advances in understanding germline predisposition, recurrent segmental chromosomal alterations, somatic point mutations and translocations, and clonal evolution in relapsed neuroblastoma. PMID:26539795

  2. Development of a Risk Stratification System to Guide Treatment for Female Germ Cell Tumors

    PubMed Central

    Meisel, Jane L.; Woo, Kaitlin M.; Sudarsan, Nora; Eng, Jana; Patil, Sujata; Jacobsen, Erin P.; Murali, Rajmohan; Gardner, Ginger J.; Bosl, George J.; Aghajanian, Carol; Feldman, Darren R.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Due to their rarity, little is known about prognostic factors in female germ cell tumors (GCTs) or outcomes following systemic therapy. Management is largely based on studies of male GCT and epithelial ovarian cancer. Methods Chart review was performed for all females with GCT seen at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) from 1990 to 2012. Patients receiving chemotherapy were stratified using a modification of the male IGCCCG risk system, and the classifier was correlated with outcome. Results Of 93 patients, 92 (99%) underwent primary surgery and 85 (92%) received chemotherapy. Modified IGCCCG classification was significantly associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), both when applied preoperatively and pre-chemotherapy (p<0.001 for all four analyses). Progression after initial chemotherapy (n=29) was detected by imaging in 14 (48%) patients, by serum tumor markers in 6 (21%) patients, and by multiple methods in the rest. Seven (29%) of 24 patients treated with salvage chemotherapy achieved long-term PFS, including 4/6 who received high-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) as initial salvage versus 3/16 treated with other initial salvage regimens. The estimated 3-year OS rate was 84% (95% CI, 76-92%), with a trend favoring dysgerminoma over non-dysgerminoma histologies (p=0.12). Conclusions Modified IGCCCG classification was prognostic for female GCT patients in this cohort and identified a poor-risk group who may benefit from more intensive first-line chemotherapy. Both imaging and tumor marker evaluation were important in identifying relapses after first-line chemotherapy. The majority of long-term remissions with salvage therapy were achieved with initial salvage HDCT. PMID:26115974

  3. Artificial neural network modeling enhances risk stratification and can reduce downstream testing for patients with suspected acute coronary syndromes, negative cardiac biomarkers, and normal ECGs.

    PubMed

    Isma'eel, Hussain A; Cremer, Paul C; Khalaf, Shaden; Almedawar, Mohamad M; Elhajj, Imad H; Sakr, George E; Jaber, Wael A

    2016-04-01

    Despite uncertain yield, guidelines endorse routine stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for patients with suspected acute coronary syndromes, unremarkable serial electrocardiograms, and negative troponin measurements. In these patients, outcome prediction and risk stratification models could spare unnecessary testing. This study therefore investigated the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) to improve risk stratification and prediction of MPI and angiographic results. We retrospectively identified 5354 consecutive patients referred from the emergency department for rest-stress MPI after serial negative troponins and normal ECGs. Patients were risk stratified according to thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) scores, ischemia was defined as >5 % reversible perfusion defect, and obstructive coronary artery disease was defined as >50 % angiographic obstruction. For ANN, the network architecture employed a systematic method where the number of neurons is changed incrementally, and bootstrapping was performed to evaluate the accuracy of the models. Compared to TIMI scores, ANN models provided improved discriminatory power. With regards to MPI, an ANN model could reduce testing by 59 % and maintain a 96 % negative predictive value (NPV) for ruling out ischemia. Application of an ANN model could also avoid 73 % of invasive coronary angiograms while maintaining a 98 % NPV for detecting obstructive CAD. An online calculator for clinical use was created using these models. The ANN models improved risk stratification when compared to the TIMI score. Our calculator could also reduce downstream testing while maintaining an excellent NPV, though further study is needed before the calculator can be used clinically. PMID:26626458

  4. Cancer risks: Strategies for elimination

    SciTech Connect

    Bannasch, P.

    1987-01-01

    This book deals with the possibilities for identifying and eliminating cancer risk factors. The current state of knowledge on the detection, assessment and elimination of chemical, physical (radiation), and biological (viruses) risk factors are comprehensively presented in 15 contributions. Chemical risk factors resulting from smoking and environmental contamination are given special attention. The coverage of cancer risks by radiation includes some of the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. Finally, the discussion of the possible risks that certain viruses hold for cancer in man is intended to further the development of vaccinations against these viral infections. The information is directed not only at specialists, but also at a wider interested audience. Its primary aim is to convey established findings that are already being used for cancer prevention. Furthermore, the book aims to promote more intense research in the field of primary cancer prevention. Contents: General aspects; chemical carcinogens: Risk assessment; chemical carcinogens: Primary prevention; physical carcinogens - Oncogenic viruses and subject index.

  5. TP53 Mutational Status Is a Potential Marker for Risk Stratification in Wilms Tumour with Diffuse Anaplasia

    PubMed Central

    Chagtai, Tasnim; Popov, Sergey D.; Sebire, Neil J.; Vujanic, Gordan; Perlman, Elizabeth; Anderson, James R.; Grundy, Paul; Dome, Jeffrey S.; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy

    2014-01-01

    Purpose The presence of diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumours (DAWT) is associated with TP53 mutations and poor outcome. As patients receive intensified treatment, we sought to identify whether TP53 mutational status confers additional prognostic information. Patients and Methods We studied 40 patients with DAWT with anaplasia in the tissue from which DNA was extracted and analysed for TP53 mutations and 17p loss. The majority of cases were profiled by copy number (n = 32) and gene expression (n = 36) arrays. TP53 mutational status was correlated with patient event-free and overall survival, genomic copy number instability and gene expression profiling. Results From the 40 cases, 22 (55%) had TP53 mutations (2 detected only after deep-sequencing), 20 of which also had 17p loss (91%); 18 (45%) cases had no detectable mutation but three had 17p loss. Tumours with TP53 mutations and/or 17p loss (n = 25) had an increased risk of recurrence as a first event (p = 0.03, hazard ratio (HR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26–16.0) and death (p = 0.04, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.36–31.7) compared to tumours lacking TP53 abnormalities. DAWT carrying TP53 mutations showed increased copy number alterations compared to those with wild-type, suggesting a more unstable genome (p = 0.03). These tumours showed deregulation of genes associated with cell cycle and DNA repair biological processes. Conclusion This study provides evidence that TP53 mutational analysis improves risk stratification in DAWT. This requires validation in an independent cohort before clinical use as a biomarker. PMID:25313908

  6. New pattern-based personalized risk stratification system for endocervical adenocarcinoma with important clinical implications and surgical outcome.

    PubMed

    Roma, Andres A; Mistretta, Toni-Ann; Diaz De Vivar, Andrea; Park, Kay J; Alvarado-Cabrero, Isabel; Rasty, Golnar; Chanona-Vilchis, Jose G; Mikami, Yoshiki; Hong, Sung R; Teramoto, Norihiro; Ali-Fehmi, Rouba; Barbuto, Denise; Rutgers, Joanne K L; Silva, Elvio G

    2016-04-01

    We present a recently introduced three tier pattern-based histopathologic system to stratify endocervical adenocarcinoma (EAC) that better correlates with lymph node (LN) metastases than FIGO staging alone, and has the advantage of safely predicting node-negative disease in a large proportion of EAC patients. The system consists of stratifying EAC into one of three patterns: pattern A tumors characterized by well-demarcated glands frequently forming clusters or groups with relative lobular architecture and lacking destructive stromal invasion or lymphovascular invasion (LVI), pattern B tumors demonstrating localized destructive invasion (small clusters or individual tumor cells within desmoplastic stroma often arising from pattern A glands), and pattern C tumors with diffusely infiltrative glands and associated desmoplastic response. Three hundred and fifty-two cases were included; mean follow-up 52.8 months. Seventy-three patients (21%) had pattern A tumors; all were stage I and there were no LN metastases or recurrences. Pattern B was seen in 90 tumors (26%); all were stage I and LVI was seen in 24 cases (26.6%). Nodal disease was found in only 4 (4.4%) pattern B tumors (one IA2, two IB1, one IB not further specified (NOS)), each of which showed LVI. Pattern C was found in 189 cases (54%), 117 had LVI (61.9%) and 17% were stage II or greater. Forty-five (23.8%) patients showed LN metastases (one IA1, 14 IB1, 5 IB2, 5 IB NOS, 11 II, 5 III and 4 IV) and recurrences were recorded in 41 (21.7%) patients. This new risk stratification system identifies a subset of stage I patients with essentially no risk of nodal disease, suggesting that patients with pattern A tumors can be spared lymphadenectomy. Patients with pattern B tumors rarely present with LN metastases, and sentinel LN examination could potentially identify these patients. Surgical treatment with nodal resection is justified in patients with pattern C tumors. PMID:27016227

  7. Identifying Unique Versus Shared Pre- and Perinatal Risk Factors for ASD and ADHD Using a Simplex-Multiplex Stratification.

    PubMed

    Oerlemans, Anoek M; Burmanje, Marlot J; Franke, Barbara; Buitelaar, Jan K; Hartman, Catharina A; Rommelse, Nanda N J

    2016-07-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) frequently co-occur. Besides shared genetic factors, pre- and perinatal risk factors (PPFs) may determine if ASD, ADHD, or the combination of both disorders becomes manifest. This study aimed to test shared and unique involvement of PPFs for ASD and ADHD, using an approach that stratifies the sample into affected/unaffected offspring and single-incidence (SPX) versus multi-incidence (MPX) families. Pre- perinatal data based on retrospective parent-report were collected in 288 children (71 % males) from 31 SPX and 59 MPX ASD families, 476 children (65 % males) from 31 SPX and 171 MPX ADHD families, and 408 control children (42 % males). Except for large family size and more firstborns amongst affected offspring, no shared PFFs were identified for ASD and ADHD. PPFs predominantly related to ASD (maternal infections and suboptimal condition at birth) were more often reported in affected than unaffected siblings. PPFs associated with ADHD (low parental age, maternal diseases, smoking and stress) were shared between affected and unaffected siblings. Firstborn-ship was more frequent in SPX than MPX ASD probands. Our results suggest that the co-morbidity of ASD and ADHD is not likely explained by shared PPFs. Instead, PPFs might play a crucial role in the developmental pathways leading up to either disorder. PPFs in ADHD appear to index an increased shared risk, whereas in ASD PPFs possibly have a more determining role in the disorder. SPX-MPX stratification detected possible etiological differences in ASD families, but provided no deeper insight in the role of PPFs in ADHD. PMID:26466830

  8. Dipyridamole thallium-201 scintigraphy for early risk stratification of patients after uncomplicated myocardial infarction

    PubMed Central

    Hung, J.; Moshiri, M.; Groom, G.; Van der Schaaf, A. A; Parsons, R.; Hands, M.

    1997-01-01

    Objective—To determine the safety and prognostic value of dipyridamole thallium-201 scintigraphy performed in patients within three to five days of acute myocardial infarction, including those receiving thrombolytic treatment.
Design—A prospective study of dipyridamole thallium-201 scintigraphy in patients early after acute myocardial infarction.
Setting—University hospital.
Patients—200 patients who were clinically uncomplicated at day 3 after infarction, 92 (46%) of whom had received thrombolysis.
Main outcome measures—Incidence of cardiac death, non-fatal reinfarction, readmission to hospital for unstable angina, or non-elective revascularisation procedure within six months' follow up. 
Results—No patient had a serious complication from the dipyridamole study. At six month follow up, 55 patients (28%) had suffered a defined cardiac event. Patients who received thrombolysis had the same extent of thallium-201 redistribution and the same occurrence of subsequent cardiac events as those not receiving thrombolysis. Patients who subsequently had an event had more myocardial segments showing thallium-201 redistribution than event free patients: 2.7 (SD 1.9) v 1.2 (1.4), respectively (p < 0.001). Among all clinical and scintigraphic variables, multivariate analysis identified the extent of thallium-201 redistribution as the only independent predictor of outcome (p < 0.001). Among 63 patients (32%) of the study cohort who showed more than two myocardial segments with thallium-201 redistribution, the adjusted risk ratio for a cardiac event was 7.5 (95% confidence interval 2.9 to 19.1) compared with patients without any redistribution.
Conclusions—Dipyridamole thallium-201 scintigraphy can be performed safely within a few days of the event in patients with uncomplicated myocardial infarction, including those who received thrombolysis, and can identify a subgroup of patients at high risk of future ischaemic events.

 Keywords

  9. Matrix metalloproteinases and risk stratification in patients undergoing surgical revascularisation for critical limb ischaemia.

    PubMed

    De Caridi, Giovanni; Massara, Mafalda; Spinelli, Francesco; David, Antonio; Gangemi, Sebastiano; Fugetto, Francesco; Grande, Raffaele; Butrico, Lucia; Stefanelli, Roberta; Colosimo, Manuela; de Franciscis, Stefano; Serra, Raffaele

    2016-08-01

    Critical limb ischaemia (CLI) is the most advanced form of peripheral artery disease (PAD) and it is often associated with foot gangrene, which may lead to major amputation of lower limbs, and also with a higher risk of death due to fatal cardiovascular events. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) seem to be involved in atherosclerosis, PAD and CLI. Aim of this study was to evaluate variations in MMP serum levels in patients affected by CLI, before and after lower limb surgical revascularisation through prosthetic or venous bypass. A total of 29 patients (7 females and 22 males, mean age 73·4 years, range 65-83 years) suffering from CLI and submitted to lower extremity bypass (LEB) in our Institution were recruited. Seven patients (group I) underwent LEB using synthetic polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) graft material and 22 patients (group II) underwent LEB using autogenous veins. Moreover, 30 healthy age-sex-matched subjects were also enrolled as controls (group III). We documented significantly higher serum MMPs levels (P < 0·01) in patients with CLI (groups I and II) with respect to control group (group III). Finally, five patients with CLI (17·2%) showed poor outcomes (major amputations or death), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test showed very high levels of MMP-1 and MMP-8. MMP serum levels seem to be able to predict the clinical outcomes of patients with CLI. PMID:26012891

  10. Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: current status and challenges for the future†

    PubMed Central

    Wellens, Hein J.J.; Schwartz, Peter J.; Lindemans, Fred W.; Buxton, Alfred E.; Goldberger, Jeffrey J.; Hohnloser, Stefan H.; Huikuri, Heikki V.; Kääb, Stefan; La Rovere, Maria Teresa; Malik, Marek; Myerburg, Robert J.; Simoons, Maarten L.; Swedberg, Karl; Tijssen, Jan; Voors, Adriaan A.; Wilde, Arthur A.

    2014-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a daunting problem. It is a major public health issue for several reasons: from its prevalence (20% of total mortality in the industrialized world) to the devastating psycho-social impact on society and on the families of victims often still in their prime, and it represents a challenge for medicine, and especially for cardiology. This text summarizes the discussions and opinions of a group of investigators with a long-standing interest in this field. We addressed the occurrence of SCD in individuals apparently healthy, in patients with heart disease and mild or severe cardiac dysfunction, and in those with genetically based arrhythmic diseases. Recognizing the need for more accurate registries of the global and regional distribution of SCD in these different categories, we focused on the assessment of risk for SCD in these four groups, looking at the significance of alterations in cardiac function, of signs of electrical instability identified by ECG abnormalities or by autonomic tests, and of the progressive impact of genetic screening. Special attention was given to the identification of areas of research more or less likely to provide useful information, and thereby more or less suitable for the investment of time and of research funds. PMID:24801071

  11. Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: current status and challenges for the future.

    PubMed

    Wellens, Hein J J; Schwartz, Peter J; Lindemans, Fred W; Buxton, Alfred E; Goldberger, Jeffrey J; Hohnloser, Stefan H; Huikuri, Heikki V; Kääb, Stefan; La Rovere, Maria Teresa; Malik, Marek; Myerburg, Robert J; Simoons, Maarten L; Swedberg, Karl; Tijssen, Jan; Voors, Adriaan A; Wilde, Arthur A

    2014-07-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a daunting problem. It is a major public health issue for several reasons: from its prevalence (20% of total mortality in the industrialized world) to the devastating psycho-social impact on society and on the families of victims often still in their prime, and it represents a challenge for medicine, and especially for cardiology. This text summarizes the discussions and opinions of a group of investigators with a long-standing interest in this field. We addressed the occurrence of SCD in individuals apparently healthy, in patients with heart disease and mild or severe cardiac dysfunction, and in those with genetically based arrhythmic diseases. Recognizing the need for more accurate registries of the global and regional distribution of SCD in these different categories, we focused on the assessment of risk for SCD in these four groups, looking at the significance of alterations in cardiac function, of signs of electrical instability identified by ECG abnormalities or by autonomic tests, and of the progressive impact of genetic screening. Special attention was given to the identification of areas of research more or less likely to provide useful information, and thereby more or less suitable for the investment of time and of research funds. PMID:24801071

  12. Incorporating temporal EHR data in predictive models for risk stratification of renal function deterioration.

    PubMed

    Singh, Anima; Nadkarni, Girish; Gottesman, Omri; Ellis, Stephen B; Bottinger, Erwin P; Guttag, John V

    2015-02-01

    Predictive models built using temporal data in electronic health records (EHRs) can potentially play a major role in improving management of chronic diseases. However, these data present a multitude of technical challenges, including irregular sampling of data and varying length of available patient history. In this paper, we describe and evaluate three different approaches that use machine learning to build predictive models using temporal EHR data of a patient. The first approach is a commonly used non-temporal approach that aggregates values of the predictors in the patient's medical history. The other two approaches exploit the temporal dynamics of the data. The two temporal approaches vary in how they model temporal information and handle missing data. Using data from the EHR of Mount Sinai Medical Center, we learned and evaluated the models in the context of predicting loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the most common assessment of kidney function. Our results show that incorporating temporal information in patient's medical history can lead to better prediction of loss of kidney function. They also demonstrate that exactly how this information is incorporated is important. In particular, our results demonstrate that the relative importance of different predictors varies over time, and that using multi-task learning to account for this is an appropriate way to robustly capture the temporal dynamics in EHR data. Using a case study, we also demonstrate how the multi-task learning based model can yield predictive models with better performance for identifying patients at high risk of short-term loss of kidney function. PMID:25460205

  13. Incorporating temporal EHR data in predictive models for risk stratification of renal function deterioration

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Anima; Nadkarni, Girish; Gottesman, Omri; Ellis, Stephen B.; Bottinger, Erwin P.; Guttag, John V.

    2015-01-01

    Predictive models built using temporal data in electronic health records (EHRs) can potentially play a major role in improving management of chronic diseases. However, these data present a multitude of technical challenges, including irregular sampling of data and varying length of available patient history. In this paper, we describe and evaluate three different approaches that use machine learning to build predictive models using temporal EHR data of a patient. The first approach is a commonly used non-temporal approach that aggregates values of the predictors in the patient’s medical history. The other two approaches exploit the temporal dynamics of the data. The two temporal approaches vary in how they model temporal information and handle missing data. Using data from the EHR of Mount Sinai Medical Center, we learned and evaluated the models in the context of predicting loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the most common assessment of kidney function. Our results show that incorporating temporal information in patient’s medical history can lead to better prediction of loss of kidney function. They also demonstrate that exactly how this information is incorporated is important. In particular, our results demonstrate that the relative importance of different predictors varies over time, and that using multi-task learning to account for this is an appropriate way to robustly capture the temporal dynamics in EHR data. Using a case study, we also demonstrate how the multi-task learning based model can yield predictive models with better performance for identifying patients at high risk of short-term loss of kidney function. PMID:25460205

  14. Risk stratification for the recurrence of trigger thumb after surgical release in the paediatric patient.

    PubMed

    Edwards, D S; Richards, R H

    2016-08-01

    Trigger thumb, or stenosing tenovaginitis, is a relatively uncommon condition affecting the flexor pollicis longus tendon of children. The condition is characterized by the formation of a nodule within the tendon and thickening of the tendon sheath as it passes through the flexor pulley of the thumb at the level of the metacarpo-phalangeal joint. The optimum age for surgical intervention continues to be discussed. The aim of this study is to establish the temporal relationship and surgical variables to determine factors that may contribute to recurrence of the condition. A retrospective analysis of the entire surgical logbook and patient notes of a stand-alone consultant paediatric orthopaedic practice was scrutinized. 94 patients, 107 thumbs, over a 13-year period were operated on for trigger thumb. The recurrence rate was found to be 5.61 %. The average age of patients at primary release who went on to recurrence was 2.8 years, which is significantly younger than those that did not recur (p = 0.044). Sensitivity analysis revealed that the primary procedure at an age of less than 2.5 years confers a higher risk of recurrence. The data presented here advocate surgical release of trigger thumb after 2½ years of age, a senior surgeon as lead operator and a transverse skin incision at the level of the nodule or a more extensive "zig-zag" one to clearly see the structures to be released. We recommend that the surgeon ensures the stenosing pulley and sheath are released in their entirety. PMID:27352865

  15. Predictive risk stratification model: a progressive cluster-randomised trial in chronic conditions management (PRISMATIC) research protocol

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background An ageing population increases demand on health and social care. New approaches are needed to shift care from hospital to community and general practice. A predictive risk stratification tool (Prism) has been developed for general practice that estimates risk of an emergency hospital admission in the following year. We present a protocol for the evaluation of Prism. Methods/Design We will undertake a mixed methods progressive cluster-randomised trial. Practices begin as controls, delivering usual care without Prism. Practices will receive Prism and training randomly, and thereafter be able to use Prism with clinical and technical support. We will compare costs, processes of care, satisfaction and patient outcomes at baseline, 6 and 18 months, using routine data and postal questionnaires. We will assess technical performance by comparing predicted against actual emergency admissions. Focus groups and interviews will be undertaken to understand how Prism is perceived and adopted by practitioners and policy makers. We will model data using generalised linear models and survival analysis techniques to determine whether any differences exist between intervention and control groups. We will take account of covariates and explanatory factors. In the economic evaluation we will carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to examine incremental cost per emergency admission to hospital avoided and will examine costs versus changes in primary and secondary outcomes in a cost-consequence analysis. We will also examine changes in quality of life of patients across the risk spectrum. We will record and transcribe focus groups and interviews and analyse them thematically. We have received full ethical and R&D approvals for the study and Information Governance Review Panel (IGRP) permission for the use of routine data. We will comply with the CONSORT guidelines and will disseminate the findings at national and international conferences and in peer-reviewed journals

  16. Risk Stratification of Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Using Aortic Augmentation Index

    PubMed Central

    Beckmann, Marianne; Husmann, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Background Central augmentation index (cAIx) is an indicator for vascular stiffness. Obstructive and aneurysmatic vascular disease can affect pulse wave propagation and reflection, causing changes in central aortic pressures. Aim To assess and compare cAIx in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and / or abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Methods cAIx was assessed by radial applanation tonometry (Sphygmocor) in a total of 184 patients at a tertiary referral centre. Patients were grouped as having PAD only, AAA only, or both AAA and PAD. Differences in cAIx measurements between the three patient groups were tested by non-parametric tests and stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis to investigate associations with obstructive or aneurysmatic patterns of vascular disease. Results In the study sample of 184 patients, 130 had PAD only, 20 had AAA only, and 34 patients had both AAA and PAD. Mean cAIx (%) was 30.5 ± 8.2 across all patients. It was significantly higher in females (35.2 ± 6.1, n = 55) than males (28.4 ± 8.2, n = 129), and significantly higher in patients over 80 years of age (34.4 ± 6.9, n = 22) than in those under 80 years (30.0 ± 8.2, n = 162). Intergroup comparison revealed a significant difference in cAIx between the three patient groups (AAA: 27.3 ± 9.5; PAD: 31.4 ± 7.8; AAA & PAD: 28.8 ± 8.5). cAIx was significantly lower in patients with AAA, higher in patients with both AAA and PAD, and highest in patients with PAD only (beta = 0.21, p = 0.006). Conclusion Non-invasive assessment of arterial stiffness in high-risk patients indicates that cAIx differs according to the pattern of vascular disease. Measurements revealed significantly higher cAIx values for patients with obstructive peripheral arterial disease than for patients with aneurysmatic disease. PMID:26452151

  17. Environmental Stratification Framework and Water-Quality Monitoring Design Strategy for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Africa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    Mauritania anticipates an increase in mining activities throughout the country and into the foreseeable future. Because mining-induced changes in the landscape are likely to affect their limited ground-water resources and sensitive aquatic ecosystems, a water-quality assessment program was designed for Mauritania that is based on a nationally consistent environmental stratification framework. The primary objectives of this program are to ensure that the environmental monitoring systems can quantify near real-time changes in surface-water chemistry at a local scale, and quantify intermediate- to long-term changes in groundwater and aquatic ecosystems over multiple scales.

  18. Pharmacogenetic Risk Stratification in Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor-Treated Patients with Congestive Heart Failure: A Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Nelveg-Kristensen, Karl Emil; Busk Madsen, Majbritt; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Køber, Lars; Egfjord, Martin; Berg Rasmussen, Henrik; Riis Hansen, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Background Evidence for pharmacogenetic risk stratification of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) treatment is limited. Therefore, in a cohort of ACEI-treated patients with congestive heart failure (CHF), we investigated the predictive value of two pharmacogenetic scores that previously were found to predict ACEI efficacy in patients with ischemic heart disease and hypertension, respectively. Score A combined single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the angiotensin II receptor type 1 gene (rs275651 and rs5182) and the bradykinin receptor B1 gene (rs12050217). Score B combined SNPs of the angiotensin-converting enzyme gene (rs4343) and ABO blood group genes (rs495828 and rs8176746). Methods Danish patients with CHF enrolled in the previously reported Echocardiography and Heart Outcome Study were included. Subjects were genotyped and categorized according to pharmacogenetic scores A and B of ≤1, 2 and ≥3 each, and followed for up to 10 years. Difference in cumulative incidences of cardiovascular death and all-cause death were assessed by the cumulative incidence estimator. Survival was modeled by Cox proportional hazard analyses. Results We included 667 patients, of whom 80% were treated with ACEIs. Differences in cumulative incidences of cardiovascular death (P = 0.346 and P = 0.486) and all-cause death (P = 0.515 and P = 0.486) were not significant for score A and B, respectively. There was no difference in risk of cardiovascular death or all-cause death between subjects with score A ≤1 vs. 2 (HR 1.03 [95% CI 0.79–1.34] and HR 1.11 [95% CI 0.88–1.42]), score A ≤1 vs. ≥3 (HR 0.80 [95% CI 0.59–1.08] and HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.70–1.20]), score B ≤1 vs. 2 (HR 1.02 [95% CI 0.78–1.32] and HR 0.98 [95% CI 0.77–1.24]), and score B ≤1 vs. ≥3 (HR 1.03 [95% CI 0.75–1.41] and HR 1.05 [95% CI 0.79–1.40]), respectively. Conclusions We found no association between either of the analyzed pharmacogenetic scores and fatal outcomes in ACEI

  19. Development of a Risk Stratification Model for Delayed Inpatient Recovery of Physical Activities in Patients Undergoing Total Hip Replacement.

    PubMed

    Elings, Jordi; van der Sluis, Geert; Goldbohm, R Alexandra; Galindo Garre, Francisca; de Gast, Arthur; Hoogeboom, Thomas; van Meeteren, Nico L U

    2016-03-01

    Study Design Prospective cohort design using data derived from usual care. Background It is important that patients are able to function independently as soon as possible after total hip replacement. However, the speed of regaining activities differs significantly. Objectives To develop a risk stratification model (RSM) to predict delayed inpatient recovery of physical activities in people who underwent total hip replacement surgery. Methods This study was performed in 2 routine orthopaedic settings: Diakonessenhuis Hospital (setting A) and Nij Smellinghe Hospital (setting B). Preoperative screening was performed for all consecutive patients. In-hospital recovery of activities was assessed with the Modified Iowa Level of Assistance Scale. Delayed inpatient recovery of activities was defined as greater than 5 days. The RSM, developed using logistic regression analysis and bootstrapping, was based on data from setting A (n = 154). External validation was performed on the data set from setting B (n = 271). Results Twenty-one percent of the patients in setting A had a delayed recovery of activities during their hospital stay. Multivariable logistic regression modeling yielded a preliminary RSM that included the following factors: male sex (odds ratio [OR] = 0.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.2, 2.6), 70 or more years of age (OR = 1.2; 95% CI: 0.4, 3.4), body mass index of 25 kg/m(2) or greater (OR = 2.2; 95% CI: 0.7, 7.4), an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of 3 (OR = 1.2; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4), a Charnley score of B or C (OR = 6.1; 95% CI: 2.2, 17.4), and a timed up-and-go score of 12.5 seconds or greater (OR = 3.1; 95% CI: 1.1, 9.0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.90) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test score was 3.57 (P>.05). External validation yielded an area under the ROC curve of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.81). Conclusion We demonstrated that the risk for delayed recovery of activities during the hospital

  20. Risk stratification in unstable angina and non-Q wave myocardial infarction using soluble cell adhesion molecules

    PubMed Central

    Mulvihill, N; Foley, J; Murphy, R; Curtin, R; Crean, P; Walsh, M

    2001-01-01

    are predictive of an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events six months after presentation with unstable angina and non-Q wave myocardial infarction. These findings suggest that the intensity of the vascular inflammatory process at the time of presentation is a determinant of clinical outcome in unstable coronary artery disease. 


Keywords: cell adhesion molecules; risk stratification; unstable angina PMID:11359739

  1. Strategy of Water Resources Planning Under Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.; Ye, M.

    2007-12-01

    In water resources systems analysis, risk, caused by uncertainty, is an important issue to consider, whereas definition of risk and its measure is controversial (many definitions are available in different research fields). The problem of computing the degree of risk in water resources planning is very difficult, and has received more and more attentions from more hydrologists. This study discussed the necessity of risk analysis on decision-making associated with problems of managing regional water quantity. A new concept of risk function for regional water resource planning was introduced, and a theory of risk analysis of water resource systems was developed and implemented numerically. The developed methodology is general and can be used to tackle many kinds of decision-making problems. When loss (or benefit) volumes of an action set and probabilities of nature state of decision environments are given, non-inferior planning strategy or strategies can be derived by ordering the size of risk degrees calculated by the proposed risk function. This method was illustrated in a case study at the Huanghuaihai basin, China, one of the major food-producing areas in north China. In the last several decades, problems of water shortage and pollution are severe, and extreme weather conditions frequently occur. How to reasonably allocate the limited fresh water in the future under uncertainty is an urgent task. In this research, alternative strategies of water resource planning were investigated and risk of the strategies was assessed to facilitate the decision-making of Chinese government. The developed methodology selected the optimum choice of water resources planning strategies to avoid the risk of water shortage. This research has practicably provided support of decision-making of the Chinese central and local governments and organizations in their regional and national planning.

  2. Comparison of risk stratification tools in predicting outcomes of patients with higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes treated with azanucleosides

    PubMed Central

    Zeidan, AM; Sekeres, MA; Garcia-Manero, G; Steensma, DP; Zell, K; Barnard, J; Ali, NA; Zimmerman, C; Roboz, G; DeZern, A; Nazha, A; Jabbour, E; Kantarjian, H; Gore, SD; Maciejewski, JP; List, A; Komrokji, R

    2016-01-01

    Established prognostic tools in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) were largely derived from untreated patient cohorts. Although azanucleosides are standard therapies for higher-risk (HR)-MDS, the relative prognostic performance of existing prognostic tools among patients with HR-MDS receiving azanucleoside therapy is unknown. In the MDS Clinical Research Consortium database, we compared the prognostic utility of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), revised IPSS (IPSS-R), MD Anderson Prognostic Scoring System (MDAPSS), World Health Organization-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) and the French Prognostic Scoring System (FPSS) among 632 patients who presented with HR-MDS and were treated with azanucleosides as the first-line therapy. Median follow-up from diagnosis was 15.7 months. No prognostic tool predicted the probability of achieving an objective response. Nonetheless, all five tools were associated with overall survival (OS, P = 0.025 for the IPSS, P = 0.011 for WPSS and P < 0.001 for the other three tools). The corrected Akaike Information Criteria, which were used to compare OS with the different prognostic scoring systems as covariates (lower is better) were 4138 (MDAPSS), 4156 (FPSS), 4196 (IPSS-R), 4186 (WPSS) and 4196 (IPSS). Patients in the highest-risk groups of the prognostic tools had a median OS from diagnosis of 11 – 16 months and should be considered for up-front transplantation or experimental approaches. PMID:26464171

  3. Electrocardiologic and related methods of non-invasive detection and risk stratification in myocardial ischemia: state of the art and perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Huebner, Thomas; Goernig, Matthias; Schuepbach, Michael; Sanz, Ernst; Pilgram, Roland; Seeck, Andrea; Voss, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Background: Electrocardiographic methods still provide the bulk of cardiovascular diagnostics. Cardiac ischemia is associated with typical alterations in cardiac biosignals that have to be measured, analyzed by mathematical algorithms and allegorized for further clinical diagnostics. The fast growing fields of biomedical engineering and applied sciences are intensely focused on generating new approaches to cardiac biosignal analysis for diagnosis and risk stratification in myocardial ischemia. Objectives: To present and review the state of the art in and new approaches to electrocardiologic methods for non-invasive detection and risk stratification in coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial ischemia; secondarily, to explore the future perspectives of these methods. Methods: In follow-up to the Expert Discussion at the 2008 Workshop on "Biosignal Analysis" of the German Society of Biomedical Engineering in Potsdam, Germany, we comprehensively searched the pertinent literature and databases and compiled the results into this review. Then, we categorized the state-of-the-art methods and selected new approaches based on their applications in detection and risk stratification of myocardial ischemia. Finally, we compared the pros and cons of the methods and explored their future potentials for cardiology. Results: Resting ECG, particularly suited for detecting ST-elevation myocardial infarctions, and exercise ECG, for the diagnosis of stable CAD, are state-of-the-art methods. New exercise-free methods for detecting stable CAD include cardiogoniometry (CGM); methods for detecting acute coronary syndrome without ST elevation are Body Surface Potential Mapping, functional imaging and CGM. Heart rate variability and blood pressure variability analyses, microvolt T-wave alternans and signal-averaged ECG mainly serve in detecting and stratifying the risk for lethal arrythmias in patients with myocardial ischemia or previous myocardial infarctions. Telemedicine and ambient

  4. Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

    PubMed

    Jebari, Karim

    2015-06-01

    A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously. PMID:24891130

  5. Tree-structured Risk Stratification of In-hospital Mortality Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Report From the New York State Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Database

    PubMed Central

    Negassa, Abdissa; Monrad, E. Scott; Bang, Ji Yon; Srinivas, V.S.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Previous risk scores have shown excellent performance. However, the need for real-time risk score computation makes their implementation in an emergent situation challenging. A more simplified approach can provide practitioners with a practical bedside risk stratification tool. METHODS: We developed an easy-to-use tree-structured risk stratification model for patients undergoing early Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) for Acute Myocardial Infraction (AMI). The model was developed on the New York State PCI database for 1999-2000 (consisting of 5385 procedures) and was validated using the subsequent 2001-2002 database (consisting of 7414 procedures). RESULTS: Tree-structured modeling identified three key presenting features: cardiogenic shock, congestive heart failure and age. In the validation dataset, this risk stratification model identified patient groups with in-hospital mortality ranging from 0.5% to 20.6%, more than a twenty-fold increased risk. The performance of this model was similar to the Mayo Clinic Risk Score with a discriminative capacity of 82% (95% CI: 79%, 84%) versus 80% (95% CI: 77%, 82%), respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients undergoing PCI for AMI can be readily stratified into risk categories using the tree-structured model. This provides practicing cardiologists with an internally validated and easy-to-use scheme for in-hospital mortality risk stratification. PMID:17643583

  6. Knowledge management: an innovative risk management strategy.

    PubMed

    Zipperer, Lorri; Amori, Geri

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge management effectively lends itself to the enterprise risk process. The authors introduce the concept of knowledge management as a strategy to drive innovation and support risk management. They align this work with organizational efforts to improve patient safety and quality through the effective sharing of experience and lessons learned. The article closes with suggestions on how to develop a knowledge management initiative at an organization, who should be on the team, and how to sustain this effort and build the culture it requires to drive success. PMID:21506198

  7. Early Dynamic Risk Stratification with Baseline Troponin Levels and 90-minute ST Segment Resolution to Predict 30 Day Cardiovascular Mortality in STEMI: Analysis from CLARITY TIMI-28

    PubMed Central

    Sherwood, Matthew W.; Morrow, David A.; Scirica, Benjamin M.; Jiang, Songtao; Bode, Christoph; Rifai, Nader; Gerszten, Robert E.; Gibson, C. Michael; Cannon, Christopher P.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sabatine, Marc S.

    2010-01-01

    Background Troponin is the preferred biomarker for risk stratification in non-ST-elevation ACS. The incremental prognostic utility of the initial magnitude of troponin elevation and its value in conjunction with ST segment resolution (STRes) in STEMI is less well-defined. Methods Troponin T (TnT) was measured in 1250 patients at presentation undergoing fibrinolysis for STEMI in CLARITY-TIMI 28. STRes was measured at 90 minutes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the independent association between TnT levels, STRes, and 30-day cardiovascular (CV) mortality. Results Patients were classified into undetectable TnT at baseline (n=594), detectable but below the median of 0.12 ng/ml (n=330), and above the median (n=326). Rates of 30-day CV death were 1.5%, 4.5%, and 9.5% respectively (P<0.0001). Compared with those with undetectable levels and adjusting for baseline factors, the odds ratios for 30-day CV death were 4.56 (1.72-12.08, P=0.002) and 5.81 (2.29-14.73, P=0.0002) for those below and above the median, respectively. When combined with STRes, there was a significant gradient of risk, and in a multivariable model both baseline TnT (P=0.004) and STRes (P=0.003) were significant predictors of 30-day CV death. The addition of TnT and STRes to clinical risk factors significantly improved the C-statistic (0.86 to 0.90, P=0.02) and the integrated discriminative improvement 7.1% (P=0.0009). Conclusions Baseline TnT and 90-minute STRes are independent predictors of 30-day CV death in patients with STEMI. Use of these two simple, readily available tools can aid clinicians in early risk stratification. PMID:20569707

  8. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    PubMed

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications. PMID:23113627

  9. A New Bayesian Network-Based Risk Stratification Model for Prediction of Short-term and Long-term LVAD Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A.; Kanwar, Manreet K.; Druzdzel, Marek J.; Benza, Raymond L.; Murali, Srinivas; Antaki, James F.

    2015-01-01

    Existing risk assessment tools for patient selection for left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) such as the Destination Therapy Risk Score (DTRS) and HeartMate II Risk Score (HMRS) have limited predictive ability. This study aims to overcome the limitations of traditional statistical methods by performing the first application of Bayesian analysis to the comprehensive INTERMACS dataset and comparing it to HMRS. We retrospectively analyzed 8,050 continuous flow (CF) LVAD patients and 226 pre-implant variables. We then derived Bayesian models for mortality at each of five time endpoints post-implant (30 day, 90 day, 6 month, 1 year, and 2 year), achieving accuracies of 95, 90, 90, 83, and 78%, Kappa values of 0.43, 0.37, 0.37, 0.45, and 0.43, and area under the ROC of 91, 82, 82, 80 and 81% respectively. This was in comparison to the HMRS with an ROC of 57 and 60% at 90-days and 1-year, respectively. Pre-implant interventions such as dialysis, ECMO, and ventilators were major contributing risk markers. Bayesian models have the ability to reliably represent the complex causal relationships of multiple variables on clinical outcomes. Their potential to develop a reliable risk stratification tool for use in clinical decision making on LVAD patients encourages further investigation. PMID:25710772

  10. Risk stratification of T-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia patients based on gene expression, mutations and copy number variation.

    PubMed

    Mirji, Gauri; Bhat, Jaydeep; Kode, Jyoti; Banavali, Shripad; Sengar, Manju; Khadke, Prashant; Sait, Osama; Chiplunkar, Shubhada

    2016-06-01

    Gene expression, copy number variations (CNV), mutations and survival were studied to delineate TCRγδ+T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) as a distinct subgroup from TCRαβ+T-ALL. Gene Ontology analysis showed that differential regulation of genes involved in pathways for leukemogenesis, apoptosis, cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction and antigen processing/presentation may offer a survival benefit to TCRγδ+T-ALL patients. Genes involved in disease biology and having equal expression in both the subgroups, were further analysed for mutations and CNV using droplet digital PCR. TCRγδ+T-ALL patients exhibited differential level of mutations for NOTCH1 and IKZF3; however BRAF mutations were detected at equal levels in both the subgroups. Although TCRγδ+T-ALL patients with these mutations demonstrated improved disease-free survival (DFS) as compared TCRαβ+T-ALL patients, it was not statistically significant. Patients with homozygous deletion of CDKN2A/CDKN2B showed poor DFS in each subgroup. TCRγδ+T-ALL patients with wild type/heterozygous deletion of CDKN2A/CDKN2B possess significantly better DFS over TCRαβ+T-ALL patients (p=0.017 and 0.045, respectively). Thus, the present study has for the first time demonstrated TCRγδ clonality and CDKN2A/CDKN2B CNV together as potential prognostic markers in management of T-ALL. Further understanding the functional significance of differentially regulated genes in T-ALL patients would aid in designing risk based treatment strategies in subset specific manner. PMID:27070758

  11. Cardiac Health Risk Stratification System (CHRiSS): A Bayesian-Based Decision Support System for Left Ventricular Assist Device (LVAD) Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A.; Druzdzel, Marek J.; Antaki, James F.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy; a treatment for end-stage heart failure that has been steadily growing in popularity over the past decade. Despite this growth, the number of LVAD implants performed annually remains a small fraction of the estimated population of patients who might benefit from this treatment. We believe that this demonstrates a need for an accurate stratification tool that can help identify LVAD candidates at the most appropriate point in the course of their disease. We derived BNs to predict mortality at five endpoints utilizing the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) database: containing over 12,000 total enrolled patients from 153 hospital sites, collected since 2006 to the present day, and consisting of approximately 230 pre-implant clinical variables. Synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was employed to address the uneven proportion of patients with negative outcomes and to improve the performance of the models. The resulting accuracy and area under the ROC curve (%) for predicted mortality were 30 day: 94.9 and 92.5; 90 day: 84.2 and 73.9; 6 month: 78.2 and 70.6; 1 year: 73.1 and 70.6; and 2 years: 71.4 and 70.8. To foster the translation of these models to clinical practice, they have been incorporated into a web-based application, the Cardiac Health Risk Stratification System (CHRiSS). As clinical experience with LVAD therapy continues to grow, and additional data is collected, we aim to continually update these BN models to improve their accuracy and maintain their relevance. Ongoing work also aims to extend the BN models to predict the risk of adverse events post-LVAD implant as additional factors for consideration in decision making. PMID:25397576

  12. Integrating social capacity into risk reduction strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneiderbauer, S.; Pedoth, L.; Zebisch, M.

    2012-04-01

    The reduction of risk to impacts from external stresses and shocks is an important task in communities worldwide at all government levels and independent of the development status. The importance of building social capacity as part of risk reduction strategies is increasingly recognized. However, there is space for improvement to incorporate related activities into a holistic risk governance approach. Starting point for such enhancements is to promote and improve assessments of what is called 'sensitivity' or 'adaptive capacity' in the climate change community and what is named 'vulnerability' or 'resilience' in the hazard risk community. Challenging issues that need to be tackled in this context are the integration of concepts and method as well as the fusion of data. Against this background we introduce a method to assess regional adaptive capacity to climate change focusing on mountain areas accounting for sector specific problems. By considering three levels of specificity as base for the selection of most appropriate indicators the study results have the potential to support decision making regarding most appropriate adaptation actions. Advantages and shortcomings of certain aspects of adaptive capacity assessment in general and of the proposed method in particular are presented.

  13. Cancer prevention strategies greatly exaggerate risks

    SciTech Connect

    Ames, B.N. ); Gold, L.S. )

    1991-01-07

    This paper reports on the attempt to prevent cancer by regulating low levels of synthetic chemicals by risk assessment. Testing chemicals for carcinogenicity at near-toxic doses in rodents does not provide enough information to predict the excess numbers of human cancers that might occur at low-dose exposures. In addition, this cancer prevention strategy is enormously costly, is counterproductive because it diverts resources from much more important risks, and, in the case of synthetic pesticides, makes fruits and vegetables more expensive, thus serving to decrease consumption of foods that help prevent cancer. The regulatory process doesn't take into account that: The world of natural chemicals makes up the vast bulk of chemicals humans are exposed to. The toxicology of synthetic and natural toxins is not fundamentally different. About half the natural chemicals tested chronically in rats and mice at the maximum tolerated dose are carcinogens. Testing at the maximum tolerated dose frequently can cause chronic cell killing and consequent cell replacement (a risk factor for cancer that can be limited to high doses), and ignoring this greatly exaggerates risks. An extrapolation from high to low doses should be based on an understanding of the mechanisms of carcinogenesis.

  14. HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category among MSM in Vancouver.

    PubMed

    Bogowicz, Paul; Moore, David; Kanters, Steve; Michelow, Warren; Robert, Wayne; Hogg, Robert; Gustafson, Réka; Gilbert, Mark

    2016-03-01

    We carried out an analysis of a serobehavioural study of men who have sex with men >19 years of age in Vancouver, Canada to examine HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category, as defined by routinely gathered clinical data. We restricted our analysis to those who self-identified as HIV-negative, completed a questionnaire, and provided a dried blood spot sample. Of 842 participants, 365 (43.3%) were categorised as lower-risk, 245 (29.1%) as medium-risk and 232 (27.6%) as higher-risk. The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was low (lower 0.8%, medium 3.3%, higher 3.9%; p = 0.032). Participants differed by risk category in terms of having had an HIV test in the previous year (lower 46.5%, medium 54.6%, higher 67.0%; p < 0.001) and in their use of serosorting (lower 23.3%, medium 48.3%, higher 43.1%; p < 0.001) and only having sex with HIV-positive men if those men had low viral loads or were taking HIV medication (lower 5.1%, medium 4.8%, higher 10.9%; p = 0.021) as risk reduction strategies. These findings speak to the need to consider segmented health promotion services for men who have sex with men with differing risk profiles. Risk stratification could be used to determine who might benefit from tailored multiple health promotion interventions, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis. PMID:25736346

  15. Risk Mitigation Strategies for Adverse Reactions Associated with the Disease-Modifying Drugs in Multiple Sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Subei, Adnan M; Ontaneda, Daniel

    2015-09-01

    Over the past several years, the number of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) has doubled in number. The 13 approved agents have shown a wide range of efficacy and safety in their clinical trials and post-marketing experience. While the availability of the newer agents allows for a wider selection of therapy for clinicians and patients, there is a need for careful understanding of the benefits and risks of each agent. Several factors such as the medication efficacy, side-effect profile, patient's preference, and co-morbidities need to be considered. An individualized treatment approach is thus imperative. In this review, risk stratification and mitigation strategies of the various disease-modifying agents are discussed. PMID:26407624

  16. NASA's Orbital Space Plane Risk Reduction Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dumbacher, Dan

    2003-01-01

    This paper documents the transformation of NASA s Space Launch Initiative (SLI) Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program under the revised Integrated Space Transportation Plan, announced November 2002. Outlining the technology development approach followed by the original SLI, this paper gives insight into the current risk-reduction strategy that will enable confident development of the Nation s first orbital space plane (OSP). The OSP will perform an astronaut and contingency cargo transportation function, with an early crew rescue capability, thus enabling increased crew size and enhanced science operations aboard the International Space Station. The OSP design chosen for full-scale development will take advantage of the latest innovations American industry has to offer. The OSP Program identifies critical technologies that must be advanced to field a safe, reliable, affordable space transportation system for U.S. access to the Station and low-Earth orbit. OSP flight demonstrators will test crew safety features, validate autonomous operations, and mature thermal protection systems. Additional enabling technologies may be identified during the OSP design process as part of an overall risk-management strategy. The OSP Program uses a comprehensive and evolutionary systems acquisition approach, while applying appropriate lessons learned.

  17. Radon Risk Communication Strategies: A Regional Story.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Winnie

    2016-01-01

    Risk communication on the health effects of radon encounters many challenges and requires a variety of risk communication strategies and approaches. The concern over radon exposure and its health effects may vary according to people's level of knowledge and receptivity. Homeowners in radon-prone areas are usually more informed and have greater concern over those not living in radon-prone areas. The latter group is often found to be resistant to testing. In British Columbia as well as many other parts of the country, some homes have been lying outside of the radon-prone areas have radon levels above the Canadian guideline, which is the reason Health Canada recommends that all homes should be tested. Over the last five years, the Environment Health Program (EHP) of Health Canada in the British Columbia region has been using a variety of different approaches in their radon risk communications through social media, workshops, webinars, public forums, poster contests, radon distribution maps, public inquiries, tradeshows and conference events, and partnership with different jurisdictions and nongovernmental organizations. The valuable lessons learned from these approaches are discussed in this special report. PMID:26867298

  18. The Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System: risk stratification based on wound, ischemia, and foot infection (WIfI).

    PubMed

    Mills, Joseph L; Conte, Michael S; Armstrong, David G; Pomposelli, Frank B; Schanzer, Andres; Sidawy, Anton N; Andros, George

    2014-01-01

    Critical limb ischemia, first defined in 1982, was intended to delineate a subgroup of patients with a threatened lower extremity primarily because of chronic ischemia. It was the intent of the original authors that patients with diabetes be excluded or analyzed separately. The Fontaine and Rutherford Systems have been used to classify risk of amputation and likelihood of benefit from revascularization by subcategorizing patients into two groups: ischemic rest pain and tissue loss. Due to demographic shifts over the last 40 years, especially a dramatic rise in the incidence of diabetes mellitus and rapidly expanding techniques of revascularization, it has become increasingly difficult to perform meaningful outcomes analysis for patients with threatened limbs using these existing classification systems. Particularly in patients with diabetes, limb threat is part of a broad disease spectrum. Perfusion is only one determinant of outcome; wound extent and the presence and severity of infection also greatly impact the threat to a limb. Therefore, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Guidelines Committee undertook the task of creating a new classification of the threatened lower extremity that reflects these important considerations. We term this new framework, the Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System. Risk stratification is based on three major factors that impact amputation risk and clinical management: Wound, Ischemia, and foot Infection (WIfI). The implementation of this classification system is intended to permit more meaningful analysis of outcomes for various forms of therapy in this challenging, but heterogeneous population. PMID:24126108

  19. Body Mass Index as a Predictor of Sudden Cardiac Death and Usefulness of the Electrocardiogram for Risk Stratification.

    PubMed

    Eranti, Antti; Aro, Aapo L; Kerola, Tuomas; Tikkanen, Jani T; Rissanen, Harri A; Anttonen, Olli; Junttila, M Juhani; Knekt, Paul; Huikuri, Heikki V

    2016-02-01

    Evidence of the role of body mass index (BMI) as a risk factor for sudden cardiac death (SCD) is conflicting, and how electrocardiographic (ECG) SCD risk markers perform in subjects with different BMIs is not known. In this study, a general population cohort consisting of 10,543 middle-aged subjects (mean age 44 years, 52.7% men) was divided into groups of lean (BMI <20, n = 374), normal weight (BMI 20.0 to 24.9, n = 4,334), overweight (BMI 25.0 to 29.9, n = 4,390), and obese (BMI >30, n = 1,445) subjects. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for confounders were used to assess the risk for SCD associated with BMI and the risk for SCD associated with ECG abnormalities in subjects with different BMIs. The overweight and obese subjects were at increased risk for SCD (hazard ratios [95% CIs] were 1.33 [1.13 to 1.56], p = 0.001 and 1.79 [1.44 to 2.23], p <0.001 for overweight and obese subjects, respectively). The risk of non-SCD had a similar relation with BMI as SCD. Hazard ratios associated with ECG abnormalities were 3.03, 1.75, 1.74, and 1.34 in groups of lean, normal weight, overweight, and obese subjects, respectively, but no statistical significance was reached in the obese. ECG abnormalities improved integrated discrimination indexes and continuous net reclassification indexes statistically significantly only in the normal weight group. In conclusion, the overweight and obese are at increased risk for SCD but also for non-SCD, and ECG abnormalities are associated with increased risk of SCD also in normal weight subjects presenting with less traditional cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:26723105

  20. Improving flood risk management through risk communication strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodoque, Jose Maria; Diez Herrero, Andres; Amerigo, Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Olcina, Jorge; Cortes, Beatriz

    2016-04-01

    risk and a low level of awareness regarding the Civil Protection Plan. In the social context of the Iberian Peninsula, where climate change models indicate an increase in extreme weather events and, consequently, high exposure and vulnerability to flash floods, the implementation of appropriately designed communication strategies is critical to improve the resilience of urban areas in order to cope with this risk.

  1. Combined model of the EBMT score modified model and the HCT-CI improves the stratification of high-risk patients undergoing unmanipulated haploidentical blood and marrow transplantation.

    PubMed

    Chang, Ying-Jun; Wang, Hong-Tao; Xu, Lan-Ping; Wang, Yu; Liu, Kai-Yan; Zhang, Xiao-Hui; Liu, Dai-Hong; Chen, Huan; Chen, Yu-Hong; Wang, Feng-Rong; Han, Wei-; Sun, Yu-Qian; Yan, Chen-Hua; Tang, Fei-Fei; Mo, Xiao-Dong; Huang, Xiao-Jun

    2016-09-01

    Both European Group for blood and marrow transplantation risk score (EBMT score modified model) and hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index (HCT-CI) are suitable for evaluating patients undergoing unmanipulated haploidentical blood and marrow transplantation (HBMT), while the predictive capacity of the combined model following haploidentical transplantation is still unknown. In this study, we calculated and validated 322 consecutive unmanipulated HBMT patients. Patients in groups with HCT-CI scores of 0 or 1-2 exhibited similar overall survival (OS), non-relapse mortality (NRM), and relapse rates, independent of their EBMT score modified model. In the group in which patients' HCT-CI scores were ≥3, patients with high EBMT score modified model showed lower OS (p = 0.003) and higher NRM (p = 0.001) than did patients with low EBMT score. In conclusion, this combined model can be used to predict outcomes and may improve the stratification of high-risk patients following unmanipulated HBMT. PMID:26857549

  2. Recent advances in the management of chronic stable angina I: Approach to the patient, diagnosis, pathophysiology, risk stratification, and gender disparities

    PubMed Central

    Kones, Richard

    2010-01-01

    The potential importance of both prevention and personal responsibility in controlling heart disease, the leading cause of death in the USA and elsewhere, has attracted renewed attention. Coronary artery disease is preventable, using relatively simple and inexpensive lifestyle changes. The inexorable rise in the prevalence of obesity, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, often in the risk cluster known as the metabolic syndrome, drives the ever-increasing incidence of heart disease. Population-wide improvements in personal health habits appear to be a fundamental, evidence based public health measure, yet numerous barriers prevent implementation. A common symptom in patients with coronary artery disease, classical angina refers to the typical chest pressure or discomfort that results when myocardial oxygen demand rises and coronary blood flow is reduced by fixed, atherosclerotic, obstructive lesions. Different forms of angina and diagnosis, with a short description of the significance of pain and silent ischemia, are discussed in this review. The well accepted concept of myocardial oxygen imbalance in the genesis of angina is presented with new data about clinical pathology of stable angina and acute coronary syndromes. The roles of stress electrocardiography and stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphic imaging are reviewed, along with the information these tests provide about risk and prognosis. Finally, the current status of gender disparities in heart disease is summarized. Enhanced risk stratification and identification of patients in whom procedures will meaningfully change management is an ongoing quest. Current guidelines emphasize efficient triage of patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Many experts believe the predictive value of current decision protocols for coronary artery disease still needs improvement in order to optimize outcomes, yet avoid unnecessary coronary angiograms and radiation exposure. Coronary angiography remains the

  3. A Novel Risk Stratification to Predict Local-Regional Failures in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder After Radical Cystectomy

    SciTech Connect

    Baumann, Brian C.; Guzzo, Thomas J.; He Jiwei; Keefe, Stephen M.; Tucker, Kai; Bekelman, Justin E.; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Vaughn, David J.; Malkowicz, S. Bruce; Christodouleas, John P.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Local-regional failures (LF) following radical cystectomy (RC) plus pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) with or without chemotherapy for invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma are more common than previously reported. Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) could reduce LF but currently has no defined role because of previously reported morbidity. Modern techniques with improved normal tissue sparing have rekindled interest in RT. We assessed the risk of LF and determined those factors that predict recurrence to facilitate patient selection for future adjuvant RT trials. Methods and Materials: From 1990-2008, 442 patients with urothelial bladder carcinoma at University of Pennsylvania were prospectively followed after RC plus PLND with or without chemotherapy with routine pelvic computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). One hundred thirty (29%) patients received chemotherapy. LF was any pelvic failure detected before or within 3 months of distant failure. Competing risk analyses identified factors predicting increased LF risk. Results: On univariate analysis, pathologic stage {>=}pT3, <10 nodes removed, positive margins, positive nodes, hydronephrosis, lymphovascular invasion, and mixed histology significantly predicted LF; node density was marginally predictive, but use of chemotherapy, number of positive nodes, type of surgical diversion, age, gender, race, smoking history, and body mass index were not. On multivariate analysis, only stage {>=}pT3 and <10 nodes removed were significant independent LF predictors with hazard ratios of 3.17 and 2.37, respectively (P<.01). Analysis identified 3 patient subgroups with significantly different LF risks: low-risk ({<=}pT2), intermediate-risk ({>=}pT3 and {>=}10 nodes removed), and high-risk ({>=}pT3 and <10 nodes) with 5-year LF rates of 8%, 23%, and 42%, respectively (P<.01). Conclusions: This series using routine CT and MRI surveillance to detect LF confirms that such failures are relatively common

  4. Risk assessment to guide cervical screening strategies in a large Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Fang-Hui; Hu, Shang-Ying; Zhang, Qian; Zhang, Xun; Pan, Qin-Jing; Zhang, Wen-Hua; Gage, Julia C; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Castle, Philip E; Qiao, You-Lin; Katki, Hormuzd A; Schiffman, Mark

    2016-06-01

    Three different cervical screening methods [cytology, human papillomavirus(HPV) testing and visual inspection with acetic acid(VIA)] are being considered in China for the national cervical screening program. Comparing risks of CIN3 and cervical cancer (CIN3+) for different results can inform test choice and management guidelines. We evaluated the immediate risk of CIN3+ for different screening results generated from individual and combined tests. We compared tests using a novel statistic designed for this purpose called Mean Risk Stratification (MRS), in a pooled analysis of 17 cross sectional population-based studies of 30,371 Chinese women screened with all 3 methods and diagnosed by colposcopically-directed biopsies. The 3 tests combined powerfully distinguished CIN3+ risk; triple-negative screening conferred a risk of 0.01%, while HPV-positive HSIL+ that was VIA-positive yielded a risk of 57.8%. Among the three screening tests, HPV status most strongly stratified CIN3+ risk. Among HPV-positive women, cytology was the more useful second test. In HPV-negative women, the immediate risks of CIN3+ ranged from 0.01% (negative cytology), 0.00% (ASC-US), 1.1% (LSIL), to 6.6 (HSIL+). In HPV-positive women, the CIN3+ risks were 0.9% (negative cytology), 3.6% (ASC-US), 6.3% (LSIL) and 38.5% (HSIL+). VIA results did not meaningful stratify CIN3+ risk among HPV-negative women with negative or ASC-US cytology; however, positive VIA substantially elevated CIN3+ risk for all other, more positive combinations of HPV and cytology compared with a negative VIA. Because all 3 screening tests had independent value in defining risk of CIN3+, different combinations can be optimized as pragmatic strategies in different resource settings. PMID:26800481

  5. Reflex and Tonic Autonomic Markers for Risk Stratification in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Surviving Acute Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Barthel, Petra; Bauer, Axel; Müller, Alexander; Junk, Nadine; Huster, Katharina M.; Ulm, Kurt; Malik, Marek; Schmidt, Georg

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Diabetic postinfarction patients are at increased mortality risk compared with nondiabetic postinfarction patients. In a substantial number of these patients, diabetic cardiac neuropathy already preexists at the time of the infarction. In the current study we investigated if markers of autonomic dysfunction can further discriminate diabetic postinfarction patients into low- and high-risk groups. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We prospectively enrolled 481 patients with type 2 diabetes who survived acute myocardial infarction (MI), were aged ≤80 years, and presented in sinus rhythm. Primary end point was total mortality at 5 years of follow-up. Severe autonomic failure (SAF) was defined as coincidence of abnormal autonomic reflex function (assessed by means of heart rate turbulence) and of abnormal autonomic tonic activity (assessed by means of deceleration capacity of heart rate). Multivariable risk analyses considered SAF and standard risk predictors including history of previous MI, arrhythmia on Holter monitoring, insulin treatment, and impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤30%. RESULTS During follow-up, 83 of the 481 patients (17.3%) died. Of these, 24 deaths were sudden cardiac deaths and 21 nonsudden cardiac deaths. SAF identified a high-risk group of 58 patients with a 5-year mortality rate of 64.0% at a sensitivity level of 38.0%. Multivariately, SAF was the strongest predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 4.9 [95% CI 2.4–9.9]), followed by age ≥65 years (3.4 [1.9–5.8]), and LVEF ≤30% (2.6 [1.5–4.4]). CONCLUSIONS Combined abnormalities of autonomic reflex function and autonomic tonic activity identifies diabetic postinfarction patients with very poor prognoses. PMID:21680727

  6. Lake Layers: Stratification.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brothers, Chris; And Others

    This teacher guide and student workbook set contains two learning activities, designed for fifth through ninth grade students, that concentrate on lake stratification and water quality. In the activities students model the seasonal temperature changes that occur in temperate lakes and observe the resulting stratification of lake waters. Students…

  7. PRIME VALUE METHOD TO PRIORITIZE RISK HANDLING STRATEGIES

    SciTech Connect

    Noller, D

    2007-10-31

    Funding for implementing risk handling strategies typically is allocated according to either the risk-averse approach (the worst risk first) or the cost-effective approach (the greatest risk reduction per implementation dollar first). This paper introduces a prime value approach in which risk handling strategies are prioritized according to how nearly they meet the goals of the organization that disburses funds for risk handling. The prime value approach factors in the importance of the project in which the risk has been identified, elements of both risk-averse and cost-effective approaches, and the time period in which the risk could happen. This paper also presents a prioritizer spreadsheet, which employs weighted criteria to calculate a relative rank for the handling strategy of each risk evaluated.

  8. Risk communication strategy development using the aerospace systems engineering process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dawson, S.; Sklar, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explains the goals and challenges of NASA's risk communication efforts and how the Aerospace Systems Engineering Process (ASEP) was used to map the risk communication strategy used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to achieve these goals.

  9. Serum Antibodies to HPV16 Early Proteins Warrant Investigation as Potential Biomarkers for Risk Stratification and Recurrence of HPV-Associated Oropharyngeal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Fakhry, Carole; Qualliotine, Jesse R; Zhang, Zhe; Agrawal, Nishant; Gaykalova, Daria A; Bishop, Justin A; Subramaniam, Rathan M; Koch, Wayne M; Chung, Christine H; Eisele, David W; Califano, Joseph; Viscidi, Raphael P

    2016-02-01

    Human papillomavirus (HPV) is responsible for increasing incidence of oropharyngeal cancer. At present, there are no biomarkers in the surveillance algorithm for HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer (HPV-OPC). HPV16 E6 antibody precedes oropharyngeal cancer diagnosis. If HPV16 E6 indeed precedes primary diagnosis, it is similarly expected to precede disease recurrence and may have a potential role as a biomarker for surveillance of HPV-OPC. To determine whether HPV antibody titers have a potential role as early markers of disease recurrence or prognosis, a retrospective pilot study was designed to determine whether HPV16 early antibody titers E6, E7, E1, and E2 decrease after treatment of HPV16-positive OPC. Trends in pretreatment, early (≤6 months after treatment), and late posttreatment (>6 months after treatment) HPV16 antibody titers were examined. There were 43, 34, and 52 subjects with serum samples available for pretreatment, early, and late posttreatment intervals. Mean pretreatment antibody levels were higher than posttreatment antibody levels. Average antibody levels decreased significantly over time for E6 (Ptrend = 0.001) and E7 (Ptrend < 0.001). Six disease recurrences were observed during the follow-up period (median, 4.4 years). In univariate analysis, a log-unit increase in pretreatment E6 titer was significantly associated with increased risk of disease recurrence (HR, 5.42; 95% CI, 1.1-25.7; P = 0.03). Therefore, levels of antibodies to HPV16 early oncoproteins decline after therapy. Higher E6 titers at diagnosis are associated with significant increases in the risk of recurrence. These data support the prospective evaluation of HPV16 antibodies as markers of surveillance and for risk stratification at diagnosis. PMID:26701665

  10. Risk Stratification by Self-Measured Home Blood Pressure across Categories of Conventional Blood Pressure: A Participant-Level Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Asayama, Kei; Thijs, Lutgarde; Brguljan-Hitij, Jana; Niiranen, Teemu J.; Hozawa, Atsushi; Boggia, José; Aparicio, Lucas S.; Hara, Azusa; Johansson, Jouni K.; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Tzourio, Christophe; Stergiou, George S.; Sandoya, Edgardo; Tsuji, Ichiro; Jula, Antti M.; Imai, Yutaka; Staessen, Jan A.

    2014-01-01

    Background The Global Burden of Diseases Study 2010 reported that hypertension is worldwide the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease, causing 9.4 million deaths annually. We examined to what extent self-measurement of home blood pressure (HBP) refines risk stratification across increasing categories of conventional blood pressure (CBP). Methods and Findings This meta-analysis included 5,008 individuals randomly recruited from five populations (56.6% women; mean age, 57.1 y). All were not treated with antihypertensive drugs. In multivariable analyses, hazard ratios (HRs) associated with 10-mm Hg increases in systolic HBP were computed across CBP categories, using the following systolic/diastolic CBP thresholds (in mm Hg): optimal, <120/<80; normal, 120–129/80–84; high-normal, 130–139/85–89; mild hypertension, 140–159/90–99; and severe hypertension, ≥160/≥100. Over 8.3 y, 522 participants died, and 414, 225, and 194 had cardiovascular, cardiac, and cerebrovascular events, respectively. In participants with optimal or normal CBP, HRs for a composite cardiovascular end point associated with a 10-mm Hg higher systolic HBP were 1.28 (1.01–1.62) and 1.22 (1.00–1.49), respectively. At high-normal CBP and in mild hypertension, the HRs were 1.24 (1.03–1.49) and 1.20 (1.06–1.37), respectively, for all cardiovascular events and 1.33 (1.07–1.65) and 1.30 (1.09–1.56), respectively, for stroke. In severe hypertension, the HRs were not significant (p≥0.20). Among people with optimal, normal, and high-normal CBP, 67 (5.0%), 187 (18.4%), and 315 (30.3%), respectively, had masked hypertension (HBP≥130 mm Hg systolic or ≥85 mm Hg diastolic). Compared to true optimal CBP, masked hypertension was associated with a 2.3-fold (1.5–3.5) higher cardiovascular risk. A limitation was few data from low- and middle-income countries. Conclusions HBP substantially refines risk stratification at CBP levels assumed to carry no or only mildly increased

  11. EBV-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of the elderly: 2016 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification, and management.

    PubMed

    Castillo, Jorge J; Beltran, Brady E; Miranda, Roberto N; Young, Ken H; Chavez, Julio C; Sotomayor, Eduardo M

    2016-05-01

    Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) of the elderly is a provisional entity included in the 2008 WHO classification of lymphoid neoplasms. It is a disease typically seen in the elderly and thought to be associated with chronic EBV infection and severe immunosuppression with a component of immunosenescence. Recent research, however, has suggested that EBV-positive DLBCL can be seen in younger, immunocompetent patients. The diagnosis of EBV-positive DLBCL of the elderly is made through a careful pathological evaluation. The differential diagnosis includes infectious mononucleosis (specifically in younger patients), lymphomatoid granulomatosis, Hodgkin lymphoma, and gray zone lymphoma, among others. Detection of EBV-encoded RNA (EBER) is considered standard for diagnosis; however, a clear cutoff for positivity has not been defined. The International Prognostic Index (IPI), and the Oyama score can be used for risk-stratification. The Oyama score includes age >70 years and presence of B symptoms. The expression of CD30 is emerging as a potential adverse, and targetable, prognostic factor. Patients with EBV-positive DLBCL should be staged and managed following similar guidelines than patients with EBV-negative DLBCL. It has been suggested, however, that EBV-positive patients have a worse prognosis than EBV-negative counterparts in the era of chemoimmunotherapy. There is an opportunity to study and develop targeted therapy in the management of patients with EBV-positive DLBCL. Am. J. Hematol. 91:530-537, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27093913

  12. Stratification of risk to the surgical team in removal of small arms ammunition implanted in the craniofacial region: case report.

    PubMed

    Forbes, Jonathan A; Laughlin, Ian; Newberry, Shane; Ryhn, Michael; Pasley, Jason; Newberry, Travis

    2016-09-01

    In cases of penetrating injury with implantation of small arms ammunition, it can often be difficult to tell the difference between simple ballistics and ballistics associated with unexploded ordnances (UXOs). In the operative environment, where highly flammable substances are often close to the surgical site, detonation of UXOs could have catastrophic consequences for both the patient and surgical team. There is a paucity of information in the literature regarding how to evaluate whether an implanted munition contains explosive material. This report describes a patient who presented during Operation Enduring Freedom with an implanted munition suspicious for a UXO and the subsequent workup organized by Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) Company prior to surgical removal. Clinical risk factors for UXOs include assassination attempts and/or wartime settings. Specific radiological features suggestive of a UXO include projectile size greater than 7.62-mm caliber, alterations in density of the tip, as well as radiological evidence of a hollowed-out core. If an implanted UXO is suspected, risks to the surgical and anesthesia teams can be minimized by notifying the nearest military installation with EOD capabilities and following clinical practice guidelines set forth by the Joint Theater Trauma System. PMID:26832604

  13. Comparison of Cardiac and Non-Cardiac Biomarkers for Risk Stratification in Elderly Patients with Non-Massive Pulmonary Embolism

    PubMed Central

    Méan, Marie; Limacher, Andreas; Lescuyer, Pierre; Gerstel, Eric; Bounameaux, Henri; Aujesky, Drahomir; Righini, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Biomarkers unrelated to myocardial necrosis, such as cystatin C, copeptin, and mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM), showed promise for cardiovascular risk prediction. Knowing whether they are comparable to cardiac biomarkers such as high-sensitive cardiac-troponin T (hs-cTnT) or N-terminal pro-Brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in elderly patients with acute non-massive pulmonary embolism (NMPE) remains elusive. This study aims at comparing the prognostic accuracy of cardiac and non-cardiac biomarkers in patients with NMPE aged ≥65 years over time. In the context of the SWITCO65+ cohort, we evaluated 227 elderly patients with an available blood sample taken within one day from diagnosis. The primary study endpoint was defined as PE-related mortality and the secondary endpoint as PE-related complications. The biomarkers’ predictive ability at 1, 3, 12 and 24 months was determined using C-statistics and Cox regression. For both study endpoints, C-statistics (95% confidence interval) were stable over time for all biomarkers, with the highest value for hs-cTnT, ranging between 0.84 (0.68–1.00) and 0.80 (0.70–0.90) for the primary endpoint, and between 0.74 (0.63–0.86) and 0.65 (0.57–0.73) for the secondary endpoint. For both study endpoints, cardiac biomarkers were found to be independently associated with risk, NT-proBNP displaying a negative predictive value of 100%. Among non-cardiac biomarkers, only copeptin and MR-proADM were independent predictors of PE-related mortality but they were not independent predictors of PE-related complications, and displayed lower negative predictive values. In elderly NMPE patients, cardiac biomarkers appear to be valuable prognostic to identify very low-risk individuals. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00973596 PMID:27219621

  14. Comparison of risk assessment strategies for not-high-risk pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Hobohm, Lukas; Hellenkamp, Kristian; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Münzel, Thomas; Konstantinides, Stavros; Lankeit, Mareike

    2016-04-01

    We compared the prognostic performance of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk stratification algorithm with the previous 2008 ESC algorithm, the Bova score and the modified FAST score (based on a positive heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) test, syncope and tachycardia, modified using high-sensitivity troponin T instead of H-FABP) in 388 normotensive pulmonary embolism patients included in a single-centre cohort study.Overall, 25 patients (6.4%) had an adverse 30-day outcome. Regardless of the score or algorithm used, the rate of an adverse outcome was highest in the intermediate-high-risk classes, while all patients classified as low-risk had a favourable outcome (no pulmonary embolism-related deaths, 0-1.4% adverse outcome). The area under the curve for predicting an adverse outcome was higher for the 2014 ESC algorithm (0.76, 95% CI 0.68-0.84) compared with the 2008 ESC algorithm (0.65, 95% CI 0.56-0.73) and highest for the modified FAST score (0.82, 95% CI 0.75-0.89). Patients classified as intermediate-high-risk by the 2014 ESC algorithm had a 8.9-fold increased risk for an adverse outcome (3.2-24.2, p<0.001 compared with intermediate-low- and low-risk patients), while the highest OR was observed for a modified FAST score ≥3 points (OR 15.9, 95% CI 5.3-47.6, p<0.001).The 2014 ESC algorithm improves risk stratification of not-high-risk pulmonary embolism compared with the 2008 ESC algorithm. All scores and algorithms accurately identified low-risk patients, while the modified FAST score appears more suitable to identify intermediate-high-risk patients. PMID:26743479

  15. Morphomic analysis as an aid for preoperative risk stratification in patients undergoing major head and neck cancer surgery

    PubMed Central

    Rinkinen, Jacob; Agarwal, Shailesh; Beauregard, Jeff; Aliu, Oluseyi; Benedict, Matthew; Buchman, Steven R.; Wang, Stewart C.; Levi, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Background Patients undergoing major head and neck cancer surgery (MHNCS) may develop significant postoperative complications. To minimize the risk of complications, clinicians often assess multiple measures of preoperative health in terms of medical comorbidities. One emerging method to decrease surgical complications is preoperative assessment of patient frailty measured by specific tissue characteristics. We hypothesize that morphomic characteristics of the temporalis region serve as predictive markers for the development of complications after MHNCS. Methods We performed a retrospective review of 69 patients with available computed tomography (CT) imaging who underwent MHNCS from 2006–2012. To measure temporalis region characteristics, we used morphomic analysis of available preoperative CT scans to map out the region. All available CT scans had been performed as part of the patient’s routine work-up and were not ordered for morphomic analysis. We describe the correlation among temporalis fat pad volume (TFPV), mean zygomatic arch thickness, and incidence of postoperative complications. Results We noted significant difference in the zygomatic bone thickness and TFPV between patients who had medical complications, surgical complications, or total major complications and those who did not. Furthermore, by use of binary logistic regression, our data suggest decreased TFPV and zygomatic arch thickness are stronger predictors of developing postoperative complications than previously studies preoperative characteristics. Conclusions We describe morphomic analysis of the temporalis region in patients undergoing MHNCS to identify patients at risk for complications. Regional anatomic morphology may serve as a marker to objectively determine a patient’s overall health. Use of the temporalis region is appropriate in patients undergoing MHNCS because of the availability of preoperative scans as part of routine work up for head and/or neck cancer. PMID:25456114

  16. Systematic Review of Metabolic Syndrome Biomarkers: A Panel for Early Detection, Management, and Risk Stratification in the West Virginian Population

    PubMed Central

    Srikanthan, Krithika; Feyh, Andrew; Visweshwar, Haresh; Shapiro, Joseph I.; Sodhi, Komal

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Metabolic syndrome represents a cluster of related metabolic abnormalities, including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and insulin resistance, with central obesity and insulin resistance in particular recognized as causative factors. These metabolic derangements present significant risk factors for cardiovascular disease, which is commonly recognized as the primary clinical outcome, although other outcomes are possible. Metabolic syndrome is a progressive condition that encompasses a wide array of disorders with specific metabolic abnormalities presenting at different times. These abnormalities can be detected and monitored via serum biomarkers. This review will compile a list of promising biomarkers that are associated with metabolic syndrome and this panel can aid in early detection and management of metabolic syndrome in high risk populations, such as in West Virginia. Methods: A literature review was conducted using PubMed, Science Direct, and Google Scholar to search for markers related to metabolic syndrome. Biomarkers searched included adipokines (leptin, adiponectin), neuropeptides (ghrelin), pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α), anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), markers of antioxidant status (OxLDL, PON-1, uric acid), and prothrombic factors (PAI-1). Results: According to the literature, the concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α), markers of pro-oxidant status (OxLDL, uric acid), and prothrombic factors (PAI-1) were elevated in metabolic syndrome. Additionally, leptin concentrations were found to be elevated in metabolic syndrome as well, likely due to leptin resistance. In contrast, concentrations of anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), ghrelin, adiponectin, and antioxidant factors (PON-1) were decreased in metabolic syndrome, and these decreases also correlated with specific disorders within the cluster. Conclusion: Based on the evidence presented within the literature, the

  17. Stratification-score matching improves correction for confounding by population stratification in case-control association studies.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Michael P; Duncan, Richard; Broadaway, K Alaine; He, Min; Allen, Andrew S; Satten, Glen A

    2012-04-01

    Proper control of confounding due to population stratification is crucial for valid analysis of case-control association studies. Fine matching of cases and controls based on genetic ancestry is an increasingly popular strategy to correct for such confounding, both in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) as well as studies that employ next-generation sequencing, where matching can be used when selecting a subset of participants from a GWAS for rare-variant analysis. Existing matching methods match on measures of genetic ancestry that combine multiple components of ancestry into a scalar quantity. However, we show that including nonconfounding ancestry components in a matching criterion can lead to inaccurate matches, and hence to an improper control of confounding. To resolve this issue, we propose a novel method that assigns cases and controls to matched strata based on the stratification score (Epstein et al. [2007] Am J Hum Genet 80:921-930), which is the probability of disease given genomic variables. Matching on the stratification score leads to more accurate matches because case participants are matched to control participants who have a similar risk of disease given ancestry information. We illustrate our matching method using the African-American arm of the GAIN GWAS of schizophrenia. In this study, we observe that confounding due to stratification can be resolved by our matching approach but not by other existing matching procedures. We also use simulated data to show our novel matching approach can provide a more appropriate correction for population stratification than existing matching approaches. PMID:22714934

  18. Noninvasive cardiac risk stratification of diabetic and nondiabetic uremic renal allograft candidates using dipyridamole-thallium-201 imaging and radionuclide ventriculography

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, K.A.; Rimmer, J.; Haisch, C. )

    1989-11-01

    The ability of noninvasive risk stratification using dipyridamole-thallium-201 (Tl-201) imaging and radionuclide ventriculography to predict perioperative and long-term cardiac events (myocardial infarction or cardiac death) was evaluated in 36 uremic diabetic and 29 nondiabetic candidates for renal allograft surgery. Of the 35 patients who underwent renal allograft surgery 8 +/- 7 months after the study, none had transient Tl-201 defects (although 13 had depressed left ventricular ejection fraction) and none developed perioperative cardiac events. During a mean follow-up of 23 +/- 11 months, 6 (9%) patients developed cardiac events. Logistic regression analysis was used to compare the predictive value of clinical data (including age, sex, diabetes, chest pain history, allograft recipient) and radionuclide data. Presence of transient Tl-201 defect and left ventricular ejection fraction were the only significant predictors of future cardiac events (p less than 0.01). No other patient variables, including diabetes or receiving a renal allograft, had either univariate or multivariate predictive value. All 3 patients with transient Tl-201 defects had cardiac events compared with only 3 of 62 (5%) patients without transient Tl-201 defect (p less than 0.0001). Mean left ventricular ejection fraction was lower in patients with cardiac events (44 +/- 13%) compared with patients without cardiac events (57 +/- 9%, p less than 0.005). Overall, 5 of 6 patients with cardiac events had either transient Tl-201 defects or depressed left ventricular ejection fraction. Dipyridamole-Tl-201 imaging and radionuclide ventriculography may be helpful in identifying uremic candidates for renal allograft surgery who are at low risk for perioperative and long-term cardiac events.

  19. Improved Clinical Risk Stratification in Patients with Long QT Syndrome? Novel Insights from Multi-Channel ECGs

    PubMed Central

    Samol, Alexander; Gönes, Mehmet; Zumhagen, Sven; Bruns, Hans-Jürgen; Paul, Matthias; Vahlhaus, Christian; Waltenberger, Johannes; Schulze-Bahr, Eric; Eckardt, Lars; Mönnig, Gerold

    2016-01-01

    Background We investigated whether multichannel ECG-recordings are useful to risk-stratify patients with congenital long-QT syndrome (LQTS) for risk of sudden cardiac death under optimized medical treatment. Methods In 34 LQTS-patients (11 male; age 31±13 years, QTc 478±51ms; LQT1 n = 8, LQT2 n = 15) we performed a standard 12-channel ECG and a 120-channel body surface potential mapping. The occurrence of clinical events (CE; syncope, torsade de pointes (TdP), sudden cardiac arrest (SCA)) was documented and correlated with different ECG-parameters in all lead positions. Results Seven patients developed TdP, four survived SCA and 12 experienced syncope. 12/34 had at least one CE. CE was associated with a longer QTc-interval (519±43ms vs. 458±42ms; p = 0.001), a lower T-wave integral (TWI) on the left upper chest (-1.2±74.4mV*ms vs. 63.0±29.7mV*ms; p = 0.001), a lower range of T-wave amplitude (TWA) in the region of chest lead V8 (0.10±0.08mV vs. 0.18±0.07mV; p = 0.008) and a longer T-peak-T-end time (TpTe) in lead V1 (98±23ms vs. 78±26ms; p = 0.04). Receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analyses revealed a sensitivity of 96% and a specificity of 75% (area under curve (AUC) 0.89±0.06, p = 0.001) at a cut-off value of 26.8mV*ms for prediction of CE by TWI, a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 83% at a cut-off value of 0.11mV (AUC 0.83±0.09, p = 0.002) for prediction of CE by TWA and a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 73% at a cut-off value of 87ms (AUC 0.80±0.07, p = 0.005) for prediction of CE by TpTe. Conclusions Occurrence of CE in LQTS-patients seems to be associated with a prolonged, low-amplitude T-wave. PMID:27379800

  20. Balancing Risks and Resources: Financial Strategies for Colleges and Universities.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dickmeyer, Nathan

    1982-01-01

    Financial strategies, plans to increase return--and risk--up to the point (but not beyond) where the protection of core activities may begin to break down, are addressed. The stages for developing a financial strategy are: (1) formulate and examine academic program, research, and marketing strategies; (2) define core activities necessary to…

  1. Risk stratification based on change in plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA load after treatment in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Mao, Yan-Ping; Guo, Rui; Tang, Ling-Long; Peng, Hao; Sun, Ying; Liu, Qing; Chen, Lei; Ma, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Background: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV). The current study investigated change in the plasma EBV DNA load in the first 3 months after treatment and its clinical significance in NPC. Methods: A total of 273 patients with non-metastatic, histologically-proven NPC treated with radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy were retrospectively reviewed. Results: EBV DNA was detectable in 19/273 (7.0%) patients at the end of therapy (end-DNA). Three months later, 16/273 (5.9%) patients had detectable EBV DNA (3-month-DNA). To investigate risk stratified by the pattern of change in post-treatment EBV-DNA, we divided patients into four subgroups: Group 1, undetectable end-DNA and 3-month-DNA (n = 244); Group 2, detectable end-DNA and undetectable 3-month-DNA (n = 13); Group 3, undetectable end-DNA and detectable 3-month-DNA (n = 7); and Group 4, detectable end-DNA and 3-month-DNA (n = 2). Patients with delayed remission of EBV DNA after treatment (Group 2) had significantly poorer 3-year DFS (48.6% vs. 89.7%, P < 0.001), DMFS (48.6% vs. 94.6%, P < 0.001) and OS (91.7% vs. 97.5%, P < 0.001) than those with persistently undetectable EBV DNA post-treatment (Group 1). Five of the seven patients with re-emergent EBV DNA (Group 3) and both patients with persistent EBV DNA post-treatment (Group 4) developed disease failure. Conclusion: Plasma EBV DNA load continues to change during the first 3 months after treatment. The pattern of change in EBV DNA load post-treatment could help identify patients with different prognoses. PMID:26840023

  2. Integration of copy number and transcriptomics provides risk stratification in prostate cancer: A discovery and validation cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Ross-Adams, H.; Lamb, A.D.; Dunning, M.J.; Halim, S.; Lindberg, J.; Massie, C.M.; Egevad, L.A.; Russell, R.; Ramos-Montoya, A.; Vowler, S.L.; Sharma, N.L.; Kay, J.; Whitaker, H.; Clark, J.; Hurst, R.; Gnanapragasam, V.J.; Shah, N.C.; Warren, A.Y.; Cooper, C.S.; Lynch, A.G.; Stark, R.; Mills, I.G.; Grönberg, H.; Neal, D.E.

    2015-01-01

    Background Understanding the heterogeneous genotypes and phenotypes of prostate cancer is fundamental to improving the way we treat this disease. As yet, there are no validated descriptions of prostate cancer subgroups derived from integrated genomics linked with clinical outcome. Methods In a study of 482 tumour, benign and germline samples from 259 men with primary prostate cancer, we used integrative analysis of copy number alterations (CNA) and array transcriptomics to identify genomic loci that affect expression levels of mRNA in an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) approach, to stratify patients into subgroups that we then associated with future clinical behaviour, and compared with either CNA or transcriptomics alone. Findings We identified five separate patient subgroups with distinct genomic alterations and expression profiles based on 100 discriminating genes in our separate discovery and validation sets of 125 and 103 men. These subgroups were able to consistently predict biochemical relapse (p = 0.0017 and p = 0.016 respectively) and were further validated in a third cohort with long-term follow-up (p = 0.027). We show the relative contributions of gene expression and copy number data on phenotype, and demonstrate the improved power gained from integrative analyses. We confirm alterations in six genes previously associated with prostate cancer (MAP3K7, MELK, RCBTB2, ELAC2, TPD52, ZBTB4), and also identify 94 genes not previously linked to prostate cancer progression that would not have been detected using either transcript or copy number data alone. We confirm a number of previously published molecular changes associated with high risk disease, including MYC amplification, and NKX3-1, RB1 and PTEN deletions, as well as over-expression of PCA3 and AMACR, and loss of MSMB in tumour tissue. A subset of the 100 genes outperforms established clinical predictors of poor prognosis (PSA, Gleason score), as well as previously published gene

  3. Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success

    PubMed Central

    Balian, John D.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS)/risk minimization programs as market access enablers. This fully integrated risk-management paradigm creates exciting opportunities for newer tools, techniques, and approaches to more successfully optimize product development, approval, and commercialization, with patients as the ultimate beneficiaries. PMID:25083193

  4. Perceived Risk and Risk Reduction Strategies in Study Abroad Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luethge, Denise J.

    2004-01-01

    The study abroad program (SAP) meets the criteria of a risky purchase, namely of being non-tangible, possessing hidden qualities, being expensive and cannot being able to be tested prior to purchase. In fact, SAPs may score highly on a number of risk components, especially financial risk (expensive), psychological risk (anxiety), physical risk…

  5. Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  6. Strategy Guideline. Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.

    2012-12-01

    The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) Building America team is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.

  7. Improved Stratification of Autonomic Regulation for risk prediction in post-infarction patients with preserved left ventricular function (ISAR-Risk)

    PubMed Central

    Bauer, Axel; Barthel, Petra; Schneider, Raphael; Ulm, Kurt; Müller, Alexander; Joeinig, Anke; Stich, Raphael; Kiviniemi, Antti; Hnatkova, Katerina; Huikuri, Heikki; Schömig, Albert; Malik, Marek; Schmidt, Georg

    2009-01-01

    Aims To investigate the combination of heart rate turbulence (HRT) and deceleration capacity (DC) as risk predictors in post-infarction patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) > 30%. Methods and results We enrolled 2343 consecutive survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI) (<76 years) in sinus rhythm. HRT and DC were obtained from 24 h Holter recordings. Patients with both abnormal HRT (slope ≤ 2.5 ms/RR and onset ≥ 0%) and abnormal DC (≤4.5 ms) were considered suffering from severe autonomic failure (SAF) and prospectively classified as high risk. Primary and secondary endpoints were all-cause, cardiac, and sudden cardiac mortality within the first 5 years of follow-up. During follow-up, 181 patients died; 39 deaths occurred in 120 patients with LVEF ≤ 30%, and 142 in 2223 patients with LVEF>30% (cumulative 5-year mortality rates of 37.9% and 7.8%, respectively). Among patients with LVEF > 30%, SAF identified another high-risk group of 117 patients with 37 deaths (cumulative 5-year mortality rates of 38.6% and 6.1%, respectively). Merging both high-risk groups (i.e. LVEF ≤ 30% and/or SAF) doubled the sensitivity of mortality prediction compared with LVEF ≤ 30% alone (21.1% vs. 42.1%, P < 0.001) while preserving 5-year mortality rate (38.2%). Conclusion In post-MI patients with LVEF>30%, SAF identifies a high-risk group equivalent in size and mortality risk to patients with LVEF ≤ 30%. PMID:19109245

  8. Temporal trends in the use of invasive cardiac procedures for non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes according to initial risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Jedrzkiewicz, Sean; Goodman, Shaun G; Yan, Raymond T; Welsh, Robert C; Kornder, Jan; DeYoung, J Paul; Wong, Graham C; Rose, Barry; Grondin, François R; Gallo, Richard; Huang, Wei; Gore, Joel M; Yan, Andrew T

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Current guidelines support an early invasive strategy in the management of high-risk non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS). Although studies in the 1990s suggested that high-risk patients received less aggressive treatment, there are limited data on the contemporary management patterns of NSTE-ACS in Canada. OBJECTIVE: To examine the in-hospital use of coronary angiography and revascularization in relation to risk among less selected patients with NSTE-ACS. METHODS: Data from the prospective, multicentre Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (main GRACE and expanded GRACE2) were used. Between June 1999 and September 2007, 7131 patients from across Canada with a final diagnosis of NSTE-ACS were included the study. The study population was stratified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, based on their calculated GRACE risk score (a validated predictor of in-hospital mortality) and according to time of enrollment. RESULTS: While rates of in-hospital death and reinfarction were significantly (P<0.001) greater in higher-risk patients, the in-hospital use of cardiac catheterization in low- (64.7%), intermediate- (60.3%) and high-risk (42.3%) patients showed an inverse relationship (P<0.001). This trend persisted despite the increase in the overall rates of cardiac catheterization over time (47.9% in 1999 to 2003 versus 51.6% in 2004 to 2005 versus 63.8% in 2006 to 2007; P<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, intermediate-risk (adjusted OR 0.80 [95% CI 0.70 to 0.92], P=0.002) and high-risk (adjusted OR 0.38 [95% CI 0.29 to 0.48], P<0.001) patients remained less likely to undergo in-hospital cardiac catheterization. CONCLUSION: Despite the temporal increase in the use of invasive cardiac procedures, they remain paradoxically targeted toward low-risk patients with NSTE-ACS in contemporary practice. This treatment-risk paradox needs to be further addressed to maximize the benefits of invasive therapies in Canada. PMID:19898699

  9. Reducing the Risk, Increasing the Promise: Strategies for Student Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergmann, Sherrel; Brough, Judith Allen

    2012-01-01

    In their new book, Bergmann and Brough provide a clear path to follow for helping your at-risk students achieve success in and out of the classroom. Packed with classroom-tested, practical strategies and lesson plans for teaching respect, responsibility, resilience, reading, and other essential skills to at-risk students, this is a must-have book…

  10. Migration and stratification

    PubMed Central

    Jasso, Guillermina

    2011-01-01

    Migration and stratification are increasingly intertwined. One day soon it will be impossible to understand one without the other. Both focus on life chances. Stratification is about differential life chances - who gets what and why - and migration is about improving life chances - getting more of the good things of life. To examine the interconnections of migration and stratification, we address a mix of old and new questions, carrying out analyses newly enabled by a unique new data set on recent legal immigrants to the United States (the New Immigrant Survey). We look at immigrant processing and lost documents, depression due to the visa process, presentation of self, the race-ethnic composition of an immigrant cohort (made possible by the data for the first time since 1961), black immigration from Africa and the Americas, skin-color diversity among couples formed by U.S. citizen sponsors and immigrant spouses, and English fluency among children age 8–12 and their immigrant parents. We find, inter alia, that children of previously illegal parents are especially more likely to be fluent in English, that native-born U.S. citizen women tend to marry darker, that immigrant applicants who go through the visa process while already in the United States are more likely to have their documents lost and to suffer visa depression, and that immigration, by introducing accomplished black immigrants from Africa (notably via the visa lottery), threatens to overturn racial and skin color associations with skill. Our analyses show the mutual embeddedness of migration and stratification in the unfolding of the immigrants' and their children's life chances and the impacts on the stratification structure of the United States. PMID:26321771

  11. Simplified risk stratification criteria for identification of patients with MRSA bacteremia at low risk of infective endocarditis: implications for avoiding routine transesophageal echocardiography in MRSA bacteremia.

    PubMed

    Buitron de la Vega, P; Tandon, P; Qureshi, W; Nasr, Y; Jayaprakash, R; Arshad, S; Moreno, D; Jacobsen, G; Ananthasubramaniam, K; Ramesh, M; Zervos, M

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study was to identify patients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteremia with low risk of infective endocarditis (IE) who might not require routine trans-esophageal echocardiography (TEE). We retrospectively evaluated 398 patients presenting with MRSA bacteremia for the presence of the following clinical criteria: intravenous drug abuse (IVDA), long-term catheter, prolonged bacteremia, intra-cardiac device, prosthetic valve, hemodialysis dependency, vertebral/nonvertebral osteomyelitis, cardio-structural abnormality. IE was diagnosed using the modified Duke criteria. Of 398 patients with MRSA bacteremia, 26.4 % of cases were community-acquired, 56.3 % were health-care-associated, and 17.3 % were hospital-acquired. Of the group, 44 patients had definite IE, 119 had possible IE, and 235 had a rejected diagnosis. Out of 398 patients, 231 were evaluated with transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) or TEE. All 44 patients with definite IE fulfilled at least one criterion (sensitivity 100 %). Finally, a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was obtained to evaluate the total risk score of our proposed criteria as a predictor of the presence of IE, and this was compared to the ROC curve of a previously proposed criteria. The area under the ROC curve for our criteria was 0.710, while the area under the ROC curve for the criteria previously proposed was 0.537 (p < 0.001). The p-value for comparing those 2 areas was less than 0.001, indicating statistical significance. Patients with MRSA bacteremia without any of our proposed clinical criteria have very low risk of developing IE and may not require routine TEE. PMID:26676855

  12. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-12-01

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430

  13. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    PubMed Central

    Bos, Peter M. J.; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F.; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C. E.; Oomen, Agnes G.

    2015-01-01

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430

  14. European strategies against the parasite transfusion risk.

    PubMed

    Reesink, H W

    2005-02-01

    Protozoal infections are endemic in mainly tropical low income countries, affecting millions of people. Malaria, American trypanosomiasis (Trypanosoma cruzi/Chagas disease) and protozoal tickborne diseases (e.g. Babesia) can be efficiently transmitted by transfusion of cellular blood components. In non-endemic areas like Europe malaria, Chagas disease and Babesia are imported diseases resulting of travelling to endemic areas and migration of autochthons from these endemic areas. A recent International Forum showed that in Europe, as well as the USA, prevention of transfusion-associated protozoal infections depend mainly on selection of donors using questionnaires. Most countries divide donors at risk for malaria in two groups: individuals who have lived in the first 5 years of their life in malaria endemic areas and those who are borne and residing in non-endemic areas and visited the endemic area(s). The first category of donors is rejected for 3 years after their last visit to the endemic area, and in one country such donors are permanently rejected. In some countries such donors are accepted after 4 months-3 years, provided a test for malaria is non-reactive. Persons from non-endemic areas, who visited the malaria endemic area, are rejected for 4-12 months. Some countries reject these donors for 3 years or permanently when they resided for more than 6 months in the endemic area. The rejection rate of donors for malaria risk in the various countries was 0.003-0.43% of all donations. Over the last decade only a few cases of TT-malaria were reported in the various countries. In several countries donors are questioned for risk of T. cruzi infection. In some countries donors are excluded when they (or their mothers) were born in South or Central America, if they received a blood transfusion in these areas and if they lived in rural areas in these endemic countries for more than 4 weeks. In none of the countries donors are asked if they had Babesia or Leishmania. At

  15. Management of Newly Diagnosed Symptomatic Multiple Myeloma: updated Mayo Stratification of Myeloma and Risk-Adapted Therapy (mSMART) Consensus Guidelines

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Shaji K.; Mikhael, Joseph R.; Buadi, Francis K.; Dingli, David; Dispenzieri, Angela; Fonseca, Rafael; Gertz, Morie A.; Greipp, Philip R.; Hayman, Suzanne R.; Kyle, Robert A.; Lacy, Martha Q.; Lust, John A.; Reeder, Craig B.; Roy, Vivek; Russell, Stephen J.; Short, Kristen E. Detweiler; Stewart, A. Keith; Witzig, Thomas E.; Zeldenrust, Steven R.; Dalton, Robert J.; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Bergsagel, P. Leif

    2009-01-01

    Multiple myeloma is a malignant plasma cell neoplasm that affects more than 20,000 people each year and is the second most common hematologic malignancy. It is part of a spectrum of monoclonal plasma cell disorders, many of which do not require active therapy. During the past decade, considerable progress has been made in our understanding of the disease process and factors that influence outcome, along with development of new drugs that are highly effective in controlling the disease and prolonging survival without compromising quality of life. Identification of well-defined and reproducible prognostic factors and introduction of new therapies with unique modes of action and impact on disease outcome have for the first time opened up the opportunity to develop risk-adapted strategies for managing this disease. Although these risk-adapted strategies have not been prospectively validated, enough evidence can be gathered from existing randomized trials, subgroup analyses, and retrospective studies to develop a working framework. This set of recommendations represents such an effort—the development of a set of consensus guidelines by a group of experts to manage patients with newly diagnosed disease based on an interpretation of the best available evidence. PMID:19955246

  16. SBRT for the Primary Treatment of Localized Prostate Cancer: The Effect of Gleason Score, Dose and Heterogeneity of Intermediate Risk on Outcome Utilizing 2.2014 NCCN Risk Stratification Guidelines

    PubMed Central

    Bernetich, Matthew; Oliai, Caspian; Lanciano, Rachelle; Hanlon, Alexandra; Lamond, John; Arrigo, Stephen; Yang, Jun; Good, Michael; Feng, Jing; Brown, Royce; Garber, Bruce; Mooreville, Michael; Brady, Luther W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To report an update of our previous experience using stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for the primary treatment of prostate cancer, risk stratified by the updated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) version 2.2014, reporting efficacy and toxicity in a community hospital setting. Methods: From 2007 to 2012, 142 localized prostate cancer patients were treated with SBRT using CyberKnife. NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014 risk groups analyzed included very low (20%), low (23%), intermediate (35%), and high (22%) risk. To further explore group heterogeneity and to comply with new guidelines, we separated our prior intermediate risk group into favorable intermediate and unfavorable intermediate groups depending on how many intermediate risk factors were present (one vs. > one). The unfavorable intermediate group was further analyzed in combination with the high risk group as per NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014. Various dose levels were used over the years of treatment, and have been categorized into low dose (35 Gy, n = 5 or 36.25 Gy, n = 107) and high dose (37.5 Gy, n = 30). All treatments were delivered in five fractions. Toxicity was assessed using radiation therapy oncology group criteria. Results: Five-year actuarial freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) was 100, 91.7, 95.2, 90.0, and 86.7% for very low, low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively. A significant difference in 5 year FFBF was noted for patients with Gleason score (GS) ≥8 vs. 7 vs. 5/6 (p = 0.03) and low vs. high dose (p = 0.05). T-stage, pretreatment PSA, age, risk stratification group, and use of ADT did not affect 5-year FFBF. Multivariate analysis revealed GS and dose to be the most predictive factors for 5-year FFBF. Conclusion: Our experience with SBRT for the primary treatment of localized prostate cancer demonstrates favorable efficacy and toxicity comparable to the results reported for IMRT in literature. GS remains the

  17. Role of risk stratification by SPECT, PET, and hybrid imaging in guiding management of stable patients with ischaemic heart disease: expert panel of the EANM cardiovascular committee and EACVI.

    PubMed

    Acampa, Wanda; Gaemperli, Oliver; Gimelli, Alessia; Knaapen, Paul; Schindler, Thomas H; Verberne, Hein J; Zellweger, Michael J

    2015-12-01

    Risk stratification has become increasingly important in the management of patients with suspected or known ischaemic heart disease (IHD). Recent guidelines recommend that these patients have their care driven by risk assessment. The purpose of this position statement is to summarize current evidence on the value of cardiac single-photon emission computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and hybrid imaging in risk stratifying asymptomatic or symptomatic patients with suspected IHD, patients with stable disease, patients after coronary revascularization, heart failure patients, and specific patient population. In addition, this position statement evaluates the impact of imaging results on clinical decision-making and thereby its role in patient management. The document represents the opinion of the European Association of Nuclear Medicine (EANM) Cardiovascular Committee and of the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) and intends to stimulate future research in this field. PMID:25902767

  18. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    SciTech Connect

    2009-11-04

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  19. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2011-10-06

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  20. Innovative tools for assessing risks for severe adverse events in areas of overlapping Loa loa and other filarial distributions: the application of micro-stratification mapping

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The wide distribution of Loa loa infection (loiasis) throughout the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a major obstacle to the plans to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) because the standard drug regime is dependent on ivermectin, which cannot be used in co-endemic areas due to the risk of severe adverse events (SAEs). A better understanding of the micro-epidemiology, overlapping low and high risk areas, and how they relate to SAEs is critical to ensure safe and effective treatment. Findings Based on published data from the Bas Congo Province in DRC, this study used geographical information systems (GIS) to re-map and analyse onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence (<20%, 20 to 40%, >40%) at 144 sites in relation to health district areas reporting SAEs. The new maps highlighted the contrasting patterns of the high prevalence sites, and significant geographical overlap between low onchocerciasis and high loiasis sites. Statistical analyses found that sites with medium to high loiasis prevalence were 10 to 16 times more likely to be in a SAE area than those with low prevalence of loiasis. Sites where both onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence was >20% were also associated with SAE areas. Conclusions Collaborative efforts between the national onchocerciasis and LF programmes are critical as plans to scale interventions are moving forward and thus, alternative strategies needed in loiasis co-endemic areas which may include the new L. loa test and treat strategy using the Cellscope, or interventions such as integrated vector management, or anti Wolbachia therapy using doxycycline. PMID:24992829

  1. Prothrombotic Risk Factors and Preventive Strategies in Adolescent Venous Thromboembolism.

    PubMed

    Srivaths, Lakshmi; Dietrich, Jennifer E

    2016-09-01

    Venous thromboembolism (VTE) in adolescents is a serious condition that requires prompt recognition and optimal management to prevent mortality and long-term morbidity. Adolescents account for a large proportion of cases of VTE in children. As teenagers transition from childhood to adulthood, they are at risk of developing medical conditions and exposure to risky habits that predispose them to VTE. This review focuses on the variety of risk factors and comorbidities seen in adolescent VTE and takes a quick look into risk-based preventive strategies for primary and secondary prevention. PMID:26883917

  2. "Defence-in-Depth" Strategy in Transport Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szymanek, Andrzej

    Safety management is a kind of system management, that is management by purposes. Taking "defence-in-depth" strategy, DDS - there can be defined four main aims and four method groups of risk management in transport: 1. minimizing transport accidents risk; 2. minimizing number of undesirable transport events (incidents, conflicts, collisions, accidents). Above purposes relate stages of safety management in transport. At each level of management should be elaborated methods, procedures and technologies of minimizing transport accidents risk. According to DDS any management system of transport safety should have a structure of multilevel chain protections which supervise main transport processes. About those problems in the paper.

  3. Land Use Adaptation Strategies Analysis in Landslide Risk Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yu-Ching; Chang, Chin-Hsin; Chen, Ying-Tung

    2013-04-01

    In order to respond to the impact of climate and environmental change on Taiwanese mountain region, this study used GTZ (2004) Risk analysis guidelines to assess the landslide risk for 178 Taiwanese mountain towns. This study used 7 indicators to assess landslide risk, which are rainfall distribution, natural environment vulnerability (e.g., rainfall threshold criterion for debris flow, historical disaster frequency, landslide ratio, and road density), physicality vulnerability (e.g., population density) and socio-economic vulnerability (e.g., population with higher education, death rate and income). The landslide risk map can be obtained by multiplying 7 indicators together and ranking the product. The map had 5 risk ranges, and towns within the range of 4 to 5, which are high landslide risk regions, and have high priority in reducing risk. This study collected the regions with high landslide risk regions and analyzed the difference after Typhoon Morakot (2009). The spatial distribution showed that after significant environmental damage high landslide risk regions moved from central to south Taiwan. The changeable pattern of risk regions pointed out the necessity of updating the risk map periodically. Based on the landslide risk map and the land use investigation data which was provided by the National Land Surveying and Mapping Center in 2007, this study calculated the size of the land use area with landslide disaster risk. According to the above results and discussion, this study can be used to suggest appropriate land use adaptation strategies provided for reducing landslide risk under the impact of climate and environmental change.

  4. STRATEGY FOR RESEARCH ON ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS TO CHILDREN

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Office of Research and Development (ORD) is pleased to announce the availability of its Strategy for Research on Environmental Risks to Children. This document provides the strategic direction for ORD's research program in chi...

  5. New Horizons Risk Communication Strategy, Planning, Implementation, and Lessons Learned

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dawson, Sandra A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the risk communication goals, strategy, planning process and product development for the New Horizons mission, including lessons from the Cassini mission that were applied in that effort, and presents lessons learned from the New Horizons effort that could be applicable to future missions.

  6. Codependency: characteristics, risks, progression, and strategies for healing.

    PubMed

    Herrick, C A

    1992-01-01

    Codependency and caring are issues concerning nurses practicing in the 1990s. Questions about "caring" and "caring too much" at one's own expense are examined. Characteristics, roles, and risk factors for codependency are identified. Strategies for healing are suggested for nurses who "care too much." PMID:1408950

  7. Fertility drugs, reproductive strategies and ovarian cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Tomao, Federica; Lo Russo, Giuseppe; Spinelli, Gian Paolo; Stati, Valeria; Prete, Alessandra Anna; Prinzi, Natalie; Sinjari, Marsela; Vici, Patrizia; Papa, Anselmo; Chiotti, Maria Stefania; Benedetti Panici, Pierluigi; Tomao, Silverio

    2014-01-01

    Several adverse effects have been related to infertility treatments, such as cancer development. In particular, the relationship between infertility, reproductive strategies, and risk of gynecological cancers has aroused much interest in recent years. The evaluation of cancer risk among women treated for infertility is very complex, mainly because of many factors that can contribute to occurrence of cancer in these patients (including parity status). This article addresses the possible association between the use of fertility treatments and the risk of ovarian cancer, through a scrupulous search of the literature published thus far in this field. Our principal objective was to give more conclusive answers on the question whether the use of fertility drug significantly increases ovarian cancer risk. Our analysis focused on the different types of drugs and different treatment schedules used. This study provides additional insights regarding the long-term relationships between fertility drugs and risk of ovarian cancer. PMID:24829615

  8. Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management.

    PubMed

    Hand, Michael S; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P

    2015-10-01

    Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting. PMID:26269258

  9. Vascular Disease and Risk Stratification for Ischemic Stroke and All-Cause Death in Heart Failure Patients without Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Melgaard, Line; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Rasmussen, Lars Hvilsted; Lip, Gregory Y. H.; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard

    2016-01-01

    Background Stroke and mortality risk among heart failure patients previously diagnosed with different manifestations of vascular disease is poorly described. We conducted an observational study to evaluate the stroke and mortality risk among heart failure patients without diagnosed atrial fibrillation and with peripheral artery disease (PAD) or prior myocardial infarction (MI). Methods Population-based cohort study of patients diagnosed with incident heart failure during 2000–2012 and without atrial fibrillation, identified by record linkage between nationwide registries in Denmark. Hazard rate ratios of ischemic stroke and all-cause death after 1 year of follow-up were used to compare patients with either: a PAD diagnosis; a prior MI diagnosis; or no vascular disease. Results 39,357 heart failure patients were included. When compared to heart failure patients with no vascular disease, PAD was associated with a higher 1-year rate of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard rate ratio [HR]: 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–1.65) and all-cause death (adjusted HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.35–1.59), whereas prior MI was not (adjusted HR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.86–1.15 and 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89–1.00, for ischemic stroke and all-cause death, respectively). When comparing patients with PAD to patients with prior MI, PAD was associated with a higher rate of both outcomes. Conclusions Among incident heart failure patients without diagnosed atrial fibrillation, a previous diagnosis of PAD was associated with a significantly higher rate of the ischemic stroke and all-cause death compared to patients with no vascular disease or prior MI. Prevention strategies may be particularly relevant among HF patients with PAD. PMID:27015524

  10. A mathematically guided strategy for risk assessment and management.

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, James Arlin

    2005-03-01

    Strategies for risk assessment and management of high consequence operations are often based on factors such as physical analysis, analysis of software and other logical processing, and analysis of statistically determined human actions. Conventional analysis methods work well for processing objective information. However, in practical situations, much or most of the data available are subjective. Also, there are potential resultant pitfalls where conventional analysis might be unrealistic, such as improperly using event tree and fault tree failure descriptions where failures or events are soft (partial) rather than crisp (binary), neglecting or misinterpreting dependence (positive, negative, correlation), and aggregating nonlinear contributions linearly. There are also personnel issues that transcend basic human factors statistics. For example, sustained productivity and safety in critical operations can depend on the morale of involved personnel. In addition, motivation is significantly influenced by 'latent effects', which are pre-occurring influences. This paper addresses these challenges and proposes techniques for subjective risk analysis, latent effects risk analysis and a hybrid analysis that also includes objective risk analysis. The goal is an improved strategy for risk management.

  11. Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Navin R; Applebaum, Mark A; Volchenboum, Samuel L; Matthay, Katherine K; London, Wendy B; Ambros, Peter F; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D J; Cohn, Susan L

    2015-09-20

    Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations. PMID:26304901

  12. HIV and smoking: associated risks and prevention strategies.

    PubMed

    Kariuki, Wanjiku; Manuel, Jennifer I; Kariuki, Ngaruiya; Tuchman, Ellen; O'Neal, Johnnie; Lalanne, Genevieve A

    2016-01-01

    High rates of smoking among persons living with HIV (PLWH) may reduce the effectiveness of HIV treatment and contribute to significant morbidity and mortality. Factors associated with smoking in PLWH include mental health comorbidity, alcohol and drug use, health-related quality of life, smoking among social networks and supports, and lack of access to care. PLWH smokers are at a higher risk of numerous HIV-associated infections and non-HIV related morbidity, including a decreased response to antiretroviral treatment, impaired immune functioning, reduced cognitive functioning, decreased lung functioning, and cardiovascular disease. Seventeen smoking cessation interventions were identified, of which seven were randomized controlled trials. The most effective studies combined behavioral and pharmacotherapy treatments that incorporated comprehensive assessments, multiple sessions, and cognitive-behavioral and motivational strategies. Smoking cessation interventions that are tailored to the unique needs of diverse samples and incorporate strategies to reduce the risk of relapse are essential to advancing health outcomes in PLWH. PMID:26766919

  13. HIV and smoking: associated risks and prevention strategies

    PubMed Central

    Kariuki, Wanjiku; Manuel, Jennifer I; Kariuki, Ngaruiya; Tuchman, Ellen; O’Neal, Johnnie; Lalanne, Genevieve A

    2016-01-01

    High rates of smoking among persons living with HIV (PLWH) may reduce the effectiveness of HIV treatment and contribute to significant morbidity and mortality. Factors associated with smoking in PLWH include mental health comorbidity, alcohol and drug use, health-related quality of life, smoking among social networks and supports, and lack of access to care. PLWH smokers are at a higher risk of numerous HIV-associated infections and non-HIV related morbidity, including a decreased response to antiretroviral treatment, impaired immune functioning, reduced cognitive functioning, decreased lung functioning, and cardiovascular disease. Seventeen smoking cessation interventions were identified, of which seven were randomized controlled trials. The most effective studies combined behavioral and pharmacotherapy treatments that incorporated comprehensive assessments, multiple sessions, and cognitive-behavioral and motivational strategies. Smoking cessation interventions that are tailored to the unique needs of diverse samples and incorporate strategies to reduce the risk of relapse are essential to advancing health outcomes in PLWH. PMID:26766919

  14. Plan your organization's Medicare risk strategy using enrollment, disenrollment data.

    PubMed

    1998-05-01

    Data File: We've expanded this month's column to feature the details of two studies on Medicare enrollment and disenrollment trends--important information that can help you fine-tune your Medicare risk strategy. You'll find the top counties poised for growth, a report card on how HMOs are retaining or losing their members, and tips for spotting plans that could spell trouble because of volatile membership. PMID:10338753

  15. Nighttime Parenting Strategies and Sleep-Related Risks to Infants

    PubMed Central

    Volpe, Lane E.; Ball, Helen L.; McKenna, James J.

    2012-01-01

    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004.Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may help

  16. Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

    PubMed

    Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

    2013-02-01

    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

  17. Risk stratification algorithm for management of patients with dual modular taper total hip arthroplasty: consensus statement of the American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons, the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons and the Hip Society.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Young-Min; Fehring, Thomas K; Lombardi, Adolph V; Barnes, C Lowry; Cabanela, Miguel E; Jacobs, Joshua J

    2014-11-01

    Although 'dual taper' modular stems with interchangeable modular necks have the potential to optimize hip biomechanical parameters, there is increasing concern regarding the occurrence of adverse local tissue reactions from mechanically assisted crevice corrosion at the neck-stem taper junction. A systematic treatment approach (risk stratification algorithm) based on the currently available data is recommended to optimize patient management. While specialized tests such as metal ion analysis and MARS MRI are useful modalities in evaluating for adverse tissue reactions, over-reliance on any single investigative tool in the clinical decision-making process should be avoided. There should be a low threshold to perform a systematic evaluation of patients with dual taper stem total hip arthroplasty as early recognition and diagnosis will facilitate the initiation of appropriate treatment. PMID:25189673

  18. Yale FICSIT: risk factor abatement strategy for fall prevention.

    PubMed

    Tinetti, M E; Baker, D I; Garrett, P A; Gottschalk, M; Koch, M L; Horwitz, R I

    1993-03-01

    Based on finding a strong association between number of impairments and risk of falling in earlier studies, Yale FICSIT investigators are conducting an intervention trial comparing the effectiveness of usual care plus social visits (SV) and a targeted risk abatement intervention (TI) strategy in reducing falls among at risk community elderly persons. Subjects include members of a participating HMO who are > or = 70 years of age, cognitively intact, not terminally ill, not too physically active, and possess at least one fall risk factor. The targeted risk factors include postural hypotension; sedative use; at least four targeted medications; upper and lower extremity strength and range of motion impairments; foot problems; and balance, gait, and transfer dysfunctions. The interventions include medication adjustments, behavioral change recommendations, education and training, and home-based exercise regimens targeting the identified risk factors. The interventions are carried out by the study nurse practitioner and physical therapist in TI subjects' homes. The SV subjects receive a comparable number of home visits as the TI subjects during which a structured life review is performed by social work students. The primary outcome is occurrence of falls during the 12-month followup. Secondary outcomes include change in mobility performance and fall-related efficacy. PMID:8440856

  19. Bioastronautics Roadmap: A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap is the framework used to identify and assess the risks to crews exposed to the hazardous environments of space. It guides the implementation of research strategies to prevent or reduce those risks. Although the BCPR identifies steps that must be taken to reduce the risks to health and performance that are associated with human space flight, the BCPR is not a "critical path" analysis in the strict engineering sense. The BCPR will evolve to accommodate new information and technology development and will enable NASA to conduct a formal critical path analysis in the future. As a management tool, the BCPR provides information for making informed decisions about research priorities and resource allocation. The outcome-driven nature of the BCPR makes it amenable for assessing the focus, progress and success of the Bioastronautics research and technology program. The BCPR is also a tool for communicating program priorities and progress to the research community and NASA management.

  20. ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant

  1. Adolescent substance use and unplanned pregnancy: strategies for risk reduction

    PubMed Central

    Connery, Hilary S.; Albright, Brittany B.; Rodolico, John M.

    2014-01-01

    Synopsis Substance use among adolescents increases the risk of unplanned pregnancies, which then increases the risk of fetal exposure to addictive, teratogenic substances. Specific interventions are necessary to target pregnancy planning and contraception among reproductive age substance users. Screening for substance use using the CRAFFT is recommended in all health care settings treating adolescent patients. Screening for tobacco and nicotine use is also recommended along with provision of smoking cessation interventions. Using motivational interviewing style and strategies is recommended to engage adolescents in discussions related to reducing substance use, risky sexual behavior, and probability of unplanned pregnancy or late-detection pregnancy. Earlier interventions that strengthen autonomy and resourcefulness in recognizing and caring for an unplanned conception is a form of advanced directive that may well reduce fetal exposure to tobacco, alcohol, and drugs and simultaneously empower girls and women in self-care. PMID:24845484

  2. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    PubMed

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices. PMID:22171604

  3. Blood transfusion risks and alternative strategies in pediatric patients.

    PubMed

    Lavoie, Josée

    2011-01-01

    Although the safety of the blood supply has been greatly improved, there still remain both infectious and noninfectious risks to the patient. The incidence of noninfectious transfusion reactions is greater than that of infectious complications. Furthermore, the mortality associated with noninfectious risks is significantly higher. In fact, noninfectious risks account for 87-100% of fatal complications of transfusions. It is concerning to note that the majority of pediatric reports relate to human error such as overtransfusion and lack of knowledge of special requirements in the neonatal age group. The second most frequent category is acute transfusion reactions, majority of which are allergic in nature. It is estimated that the incidence of adverse outcome is 18:100,000 red blood cells issued for children aged less than 18 years and 37:100,000 for infants. The comparable adult incidence is 13:100,000. In order to decrease the risks associated with transfusion of blood products, various blood-conservation strategies can be utilized. Modalities such as acute normovolemic hemodilution, hypervolemic hemodilution, deliberate hypotension, antifibrinolytics, intraoperative blood salvage, and autologous blood donation are discussed and the pediatric literature is reviewed. A discussion of transfusion triggers, and algorithms as well as current research into alternatives to blood transfusions concludes this review. PMID:21155923

  4. Cytogenetic and molecular diagnostic characterization combined to postconsolidation minimal residual disease assessment by flow cytometry improves risk stratification in adult acute myeloid leukemia.

    PubMed

    Buccisano, Francesco; Maurillo, Luca; Spagnoli, Alessandra; Del Principe, Maria Ilaria; Fraboni, Daniela; Panetta, Paola; Ottone, Tiziana; Consalvo, Maria Irno; Lavorgna, Serena; Bulian, Pietro; Ammatuna, Emanuele; Angelini, Daniela F; Diamantini, Adamo; Campagna, Selenia; Ottaviani, Licia; Sarlo, Chiara; Gattei, Valter; Del Poeta, Giovanni; Arcese, William; Amadori, Sergio; Lo Coco, Francesco; Venditti, Adriano

    2010-09-30

    A total of 143 adult acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients with available karyotype (K) and FLT3 gene mutational status were assessed for minimal residual disease (MRD) by flow cytometry. Twenty-two (16%) patients had favorable, 115 (80%) intermediate, and 6 (4%) poor risk K; 19 of 129 (15%) carried FLT3-ITD mutation. Considering postconsolidation MRD status, patients with good/intermediate-risk K who were MRD(-) had 4-year relapse-free survival (RFS) of 70% and 63%, and overall survival (OS) of 84% and 67%, respectively. Patients with good- and intermediate-risk K who were MRD(+) had 4-year RFS of 15% and 17%, and OS of 38% and 23%, respectively (P < .001 for all comparisons). FLT3 wild-type patients achieving an MRD(-) status, had a better outcome than those who remained MRD(+) (4-year RFS, 54% vs 17% P < .001; OS, 60% vs 23%, P = .002). Such an approach redefined cytogenetic/genetic categories in 2 groups: (1) low-risk, including good/intermediate K-MRD(-) with 4-year RFS and OS of 58% and 73%, respectively; and (2) high risk, including poor-risk K, FLT3-ITD mutated cases, good/intermediate K-MRD(+) categories, with RFS and OS of 22% and 17%, respectively (P < .001 for all comparisons). In AML, the integrated evaluation of baseline prognosticators and MRD improves risk-assessment and optimizes postremission therapy. PMID:20548095

  5. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  6. Cybergrooming: risk factors, coping strategies and associations with cyberbullying.

    PubMed

    Wachs, Sebastian; Wolf, Karsten D; Pan, Ching-Ching

    2012-11-01

    The use of information and communication technologies has become ubiquitous among adolescents. New forms of cyber aggression have emerged, cybergrooming is one of them. However, little is known about the nature and extent of cybergrooming. The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors of being cybergroomed, to identify various coping strategies and to explore the associations between being cyberbullied and cybergroomed. The sample consisted of 518 students in 6th to 10th grades. The computer assisted personal interview method (CAPI method) was implemented. The «Mobbing Questionnaire for Students» by Jäger et al. (2007) was further developed for this study and served as the research instrument. While being a girl, being cyberbullied and willingness to meet strangers could be identified as risk factors; no significant age differences were found. Furthermore, three types of coping strategies - aggressive, cognitive-technical and helpless - with varied impacts were identified. The findings not only shed light on understanding cybergrooming, but also suggest worth noting associations between various forms of cyber aggression. PMID:23079362

  7. Developing Hydrogeological Site Characterization Strategies based on Human Health Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to provide better sustainable groundwater quality management and minimize the impact of contamination in humans, improved understanding and quantification of the interaction between hydrogeological models, geological site information and human health are needed. Considering the joint influence of these components in the overall human health risk assessment and the corresponding sources of uncertainty aid decision makers to better allocate resources in data acquisition campaigns. This is important to (1) achieve remediation goals in a cost-effective manner, (2) protect human health and (3) keep water supplies clean in order to keep with quality standards. Such task is challenging since a full characterization of the subsurface is unfeasible due to financial and technological constraints. In addition, human exposure and physiological response to contamination are subject to uncertainty and variability. Normally, sampling strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on the overall system uncertainty. Therefore, quantifying the impact from each of these components (hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological) in final human health risk prediction can provide guidance for decision makers to best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. In this presentation, a multi-component human health risk-based framework is presented which allows decision makers to set priorities through an information entropy-based visualization tool. Results highlight the role of characteristic length-scales characterizing flow and transport in determining data needs within an integrated hydrogeological-health framework. Conditions where uncertainty reduction in human health risk predictions may benefit from better understanding of the health component, as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization, are also discussed. Finally, results illustrate how different dose

  8. HIPAA and information security risk: implementing an enterprise-wide risk management strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alberts, Christopher J.; Dorofee, Audrey

    2001-08-01

    The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) of 1996 effectively establishes a standard of due care for healthcare information security. One of the challenges of implementing policies, procedures, and practices consistent with HIPAA requirements in the Department of Defense Military Health System is the need for a method that can tailor the requirements to a variety of organizational contexts. This paper will describe a self- directed information security risk evaluation that will enable military healthcare providers to assess their risks and to develop mitigation strategies consistent with HIPAA guidelines.

  9. Nonlinear analysis of the heartbeats in public patient ECGs using an automated PD2i algorithm for risk stratification of arrhythmic death

    PubMed Central

    Skinner, James E; Anchin, Jerry M; Weiss, Daniel N

    2008-01-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) reflects both cardiac autonomic function and risk of arrhythmic death (AD). Reduced indices of HRV based on linear stochastic models are independent risk factors for AD in post-myocardial infarct cohorts. Indices based on nonlinear deterministic models have a significantly higher sensitivity and specificity for predicting AD in retrospective data. A need exists for nonlinear analytic software easily used by a medical technician. In the current study, an automated nonlinear algorithm, the time-dependent point correlation dimension (PD2i), was evaluated. The electrocardiogram (ECG) data were provided through an National Institutes of Health-sponsored internet archive (PhysioBank) and consisted of all 22 malignant arrhythmia ECG files (VF/VT) and 22 randomly selected arrhythmia files as the controls. The results were blindly calculated by automated software (Vicor 2.0, Vicor Technologies, Inc., Boca Raton, FL) and showed all analyzable VF/VT files had PD2i < 1.4 and all analyzable controls had PD2i > 1.4. Five VF/VT and six controls were excluded because surrogate testing showed the RR-intervals to contain noise, possibly resulting from the low digitization rate of the ECGs. The sensitivity was 100%, specificity 85%, relative risk > 100; p < 0.01, power > 90%. Thus, automated heartbeat analysis by the time-dependent nonlinear PD2i-algorithm can accurately stratify risk of AD in public data made available for competitive testing of algorithms. PMID:18728829

  10. Strategies for the modification of risk factors in gynecological cancers.

    PubMed

    Benedet, J L; Cabero-Roura, L

    2002-01-01

    Strategies to modify risk for female or gynecological cancers will vary with our knowledge of the epidemiology, etiology, and specific molecular mechanisms for each individual cancer. In general, cancer preventive strategies have been divided into primary and secondary prevention with primary prevention directed toward the causative factors for a disease. Secondary prevention is classically used in cervical cancer cytology screening programs and is essentially an attempt to identify individuals in a population with preclinical phases of the disease where intervention will impact mortality the most. A vast literature has evolved regarding the epidemiology of most of the common cancers in women. While the specific molecular mechanisms are not completely understood at this time knowledge of contributing factors for many of these tumors is well known. The association of cigarette smoking with lung cancer has been well established and the increasing rates of lung cancer, particularly in women, are directly linked to the increasing number of female smokers in the population. Indeed in many western countries lung cancer deaths have overtaken breast cancer as the most common cause of death from malignant disease in women. Excessive sun exposure without adequate skin protection is another lifestyle activity that is related to the high incidence of skin cancer in certain areas. Epidemiologically, cervical cancer has been studied extensively with the current data indicating a causal role of exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV), particularly at an early age in this disease. Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndromes are well understood and as more information on human genomics becomes available a clear understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms of these diseases will be possible and hopefully will result in effective strategies for their control. Unfortunately, in spite of the vast knowledge that is available regarding risk factors for many of these

  11. New Strategies in Hodgkin Lymphoma: Better Risk Profiling and Novel Treatments

    PubMed Central

    Diefenbach, Catherine; Steidl, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) research are expected to prelude a promising new treatment era for patients and their treating physicians. Scientific investigations over the last few years have provided new insights into risk stratification, and simultaneously, a plethora of novel targeted therapies are emerging for patients with relapsed and refractory disease. These novel therapies will be tested primarily in high risk patients, since 75% of patients are cured with conventional therapies. The challenges, as HL therapy moves forward, will be using these biologic insights to identify the patients who may benefit earlier in treatment from these novel agents, and tailoring the therapy to the patient’s tumor biology. These dual aims are intertwined; as our therapeutic arsenal increases, these biologic determinants of risk may themselves inform the design of therapies and the choice of treatments for high risk patients. PMID:23447000

  12. Effective Use of Risk Communication Strategies for Health and Safety Educational Materials.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hutcheson, Scott

    1999-01-01

    Risk-communication strategies include recognizing public attitudes about potential risks, establishing the existence and severity of risk, demonstrating that risks pose a threat to abilities and values, illustrating risk-avoidance methods, and using quasiscientific, elucidating, and transforming explanations. (SK)

  13. Stratification: Future Strategies for Video Archiving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kalisky, Lorin David

    2000-01-01

    Discusses digital video management and archiving issues, including processing power; software for browsing, searching, and indexing; media servers to handle streams; storage solutions; metadata; large file sizes; organizational issues; rights management issues, including licensing; and cataloging options, including segmentation of individual…

  14. BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

    PubMed

    Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data. PMID:26776199

  15. Novel and Convenient Method to Evaluate the Character of Solitary Pulmonary Nodule-Comparison of Three Mathematical Prediction Models and Further Stratification of Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Xiao, Fei; Liu, Deruo; Guo, Yongqing; Shi, Bin; Song, Zhiyi; Tian, Yanchu; Liang, Chaoyang

    2013-01-01

    Objective To study risk factors that affect the evaluation of malignancy in patients with solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) and verify different predictive models for malignant probability of SPN. Methods Retrospectively analyzed 107 cases of SPN with definite post-operative histological diagnosis whom underwent surgical procedures in China-Japan Friendship Hospital from November of 2010 to February of 2013. Age, gender, smoking history, malignancy history of patients, imaging features of the nodule including maximum diameter, position, spiculation, lobulation, calcification and serum level of CEA and Cyfra21-1 were assessed as potential risk factors. Univariate analysis model was used to establish statistical correlation between risk factors and post-operative histological diagnosis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn using different predictive models for malignant probability of SPN to get areas under the curves (AUC values), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, negative predictive values for each model, respectively. The predictive effectiveness of each model was statistically assessed subsequently. Results In 107 patients, 78 cases were malignant (72.9%), 29 cases were benign (27.1%). Statistical significant difference was found between benign and malignant group in age, maximum diameter, serum level of Cyfra21-1, spiculation, lobulation and calcification of the nodules. The AUC values were 0.786±0.053 (Mayo model), 0.682±0.060 (VA model) and 0.810±0.051 (Peking University People’s Hospital model), respectively. Conclusions Serum level of Cyfra21-1, patient’s age, maximum diameter of the nodule, spiculation, lobulation and calcification of the nodule are independent risk factors associated with the malignant probability of SPN. Peking University People’s Hospital model is of high accuracy and clinical value for patients with SPN. Adding serum index (e.g. Cyfra21-1) into the prediction models as a new risk factor

  16. Development and Validation of a Risk Stratification Score for Ventral Incisional Hernia after Abdominal Surgery: Hernia Expectation Rates iN Intra-Abdominal Surgery (The HERNIA Project)

    PubMed Central

    Goodenough, Christopher J; Ko, Tien C; Kao, Lillian S; Nguyen, Mylan T; Holihan, Julie L; Alawadi, Zeinab; Nguyen, Duyen H; Gonzalez, Juan Ramon; Arita, Nestor T; Roth, J Scott; Liang, Mike K

    2015-01-01

    Background Ventral incisional hernias (VIH) develop in up to 20% of patients following abdominal surgery. No widely applicable pre-operative risk-assessment tool exists. We aim to develop and validate a risk-assessment tool to predict VIH following abdominal surgery. Study Design A prospective study of all patients undergoing abdominal surgery was conducted at a single institution from 2008-2010. Variables were defined in accordance with the National Surgical Quality Improvement Project. VIH was determined through clinical and radiographic evaluation. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was built from a development cohort (2008-2009) to identify predictors of VIH. The HERNIAscore was created by converting the hazards ratios (HR) to points. The predictive accuracy was assessed on the validation cohort (2010) using a receiver operator characteristic curve and calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Results Of 625 patients followed for a median of 41(0.3-64 months), 93(13.9%) developed a VIH. The training cohort (n=428, VIH=70,16.4%) identified four independent predictors: laparotomy (HR 4.77, 95%CI 2.61-8.70) or hand-assisted laparoscopy (HR=4.00, 95% CI 2.08-7.70), COPD (HR=2.35; 95%CI 1.44-3.83), and BMI≥25 (HR=1.74; 95% CI 1.04-2.91). Factors that were not predictive included age, gender, ASA score, albumin, immunosuppression, prior surgery, and suture material/technique. The predictive score had an AUC=0.77(95%CI0.68-0.86) using the validation cohort (n=197, VIH=23,11.6%). Using the HERNIAscore--HERNIAscore=4*Laparotomy+3*HAL+1*COPD+1* BMI≥25--three classes stratified the risk of VIH: Class I (0-3 points):5.2%, Class II (4-5 points):19.6%, and Class III (6 points):55.0%. Conclusions The HERNIAscore accurately identifies patients at increased risk for VIH. While external validation is needed, this provides a starting point to counsel patients and guide clinical decisions. Increasing the use of laparoscopy, weight-loss programs, community smoking

  17. Risk of Malignant Neoplasms of Kidney and Bladder in a Cohort Study of the Diabetic Population in Taiwan With Age, Sex, and Geographic Area Stratifications

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Hua-Fen; Chen, Shwe-Winn; Chang, Ya-Hui; Li, Chung-Yi

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Diabetes has been reported to increase the risk of malignant neoplasms of kidney and bladder, but the studies’ results are still inconclusive. Age, sex, and geographical area-specific incidence and relative risks of above neoplasms are also scarce in the literature. We prospectively investigated the age, sex, geographical area-specific incidence and relative risks of kidney and bladder neoplasms in diabetic population of Taiwan. Diabetic patients (n = 615,532) and age- and sex-matched controls (n = 614,871) were linked to inpatient claims (2000–2008) to identify the admissions for malignant neoplasm of kidney (International Classification of Diagnosis, 9th version, Clinical Modification: 189) and bladder (International Classification of Diagnosis, 9th version, Clinical Modification: 188). The person-year approach with Poisson assumption was used to evaluate the incidence density. We also estimated the age, sex, and geographical area-specific relative risks of above malignancy in relation to diabetes with Cox proportional hazard regression model. The overall incidence density of malignant neoplasm of kidney for diabetic men and women were 3.87 and 4.28 per 10,000 patient-years, respectively; the corresponding figures for malignant neoplasm of bladder were 5.73 and 3.25 per 10,000 patient-years. Compared with the controls, diabetic men were at significantly increased hazards of kidney (covariate adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.46) and bladder aHR: 1.13, 95% CI 1.04–1.23). Diabetic women, on the contrary, only experienced significantly elevated hazard of kidney neoplasm (aHR: 1.14, 95% CI 1.04–1.26). Diabetic men aged >65 years showed the most significantly increased hazard of developing neoplasm of kidney (aHR: 1.40) and bladder (aHR: 1.13). The most significantly increased hazard of kidney neoplasm was noted for women diabetic patients aged >65 years. There was also a significant interactive effect of

  18. Academic Stratification and Endemic Conflict: Remedial Education Policy at CUNY.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gumport, Patricia J.; Bastedo, Michael N.

    2001-01-01

    Examines remedial education policy change at City University of New York (CUNY) both in historical context and from the perspective of system design. Interprets the policy to phase out remedial education in CUNY senior colleges as strategy to create "more of a system" by increasing differentiation of missions and stratification among campuses…

  19. Automated detection of dual p16/Ki67 nuclear immunoreactivity in liquid-based Pap tests for improved cervical cancer risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Gertych, Arkadiusz; Joseph, Anika O.; Walts, Ann E.; Bose, Shikha

    2012-01-01

    The Papanicolau (Pap) test is a routine cytological procedure for early detection of dysplastic lesions in cervical epithelium. A reliable screening method is crucial for triage of women at risk; however manual screening and interpretation are associated with relatively low sensitivity and substantial interobserver diagnostic variability. P16 and Ki67 biomarkers have been recently proposed as adjunctive tools in the diagnosis of high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) associated dysplasias to supplement the morphological characteristics of cells by additional colorimetric features. In this study, an automated technique for the evaluation of dual p16/Ki67 immunoreactivity in cervical cell nuclei is introduced. Smears stained with p16 and Ki67 antibodies were digitized, and analyzed by algorithms we developed. Gradient-based radial symmetry operator and adaptive processing of symmetry image were employed to obtain the nuclear mask. This step was followed by the extraction of features including pixel data and immunoreactivity signature from each nucleus. The features were analyzed by two support vector machine classifiers to assign a nucleus into one of four types of immunoreactivity: p16 positive (p16+/Ki67-), Ki67 positive (p16-/Ki67+), dual p16/Ki67 positive (p16+/Ki67+) and negative (p16-/Ki67-) respectively. Results obtained by our method correlated well with readings by two cytopathologists (n=18068 cells); p16+/Ki67+ nuclei were classified with respective precisions of 77.1% and 82.6%. Specificity in identification of p16-/Ki67- nuclei was better than 99.5%, and the sensitivity in detection of all immunopositive nuclei was 86.3% and 89.4% respectively. We found that the quantitative characterization of immunoreactivity provided by the additional highlighting of classified nuclei can positively impact the efficacy and screening outcome of the Pap test. PMID:22215277

  20. Improving Fall Risk Factor Identification and Documentation of Risk Reduction Strategies by Rehabilitation Therapists through Continuing Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karnes, Michele J.

    2011-01-01

    This static group comparison study determined that an educational intervention was effective in increasing fall risk factor assessment, documentation of fall risk factors, and strategies devised to reduce fall risk factors by rehabilitation therapists for their older adult outpatients in clinics. Results showed that experimental group identified…

  1. Risk factor adapted treatment of Hodgkin's lymphoma: strategies and perspectives.

    PubMed

    Loeffler, M; Pfreundschuh, M; Rühl, U; Hiller, E; Gerhartz, H; Roloff, R; Adler, M; Schoppe, W; Hagen-Aukamp, U; Schmitt, G

    1989-01-01

    prognostic impact. In contrast, a pretreatment erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) above 80 mm/h and a serum alkaline phosphatase (AP) above 230 IU/ml each appeared as significant prognostic factors (P less than 0.01; relative risk, 2.3). The two parameters can be combined to separate two groups (A: ESR and AP both low; B: ESR and/or AP high) which differ significantly for FFTF (P less than 0.001) and survival (P less than 0.04). The decision for risk-adapted treatment requires identification of groups of patients in the frame of specified diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS) PMID:2690225

  2. Safety Strategy Use Among Women Seeking Temporary Protective Orders: The Relationship Between Violence Experienced, Strategy Effectiveness, and Risk Perception.

    PubMed

    Parker, Elizabeth M; Gielen, Andrea C; Castillo, Renan; Webster, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    This study examined safety strategy use in relation to intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization, perceived effectiveness of the strategies, and perception of danger from IPV among 197 abused women. More than 90% of the women used 1 or more strategies in the 6 months prior to their interview. Severe physical and sexual violence were significantly associated with an increased use of placating strategies. Perceived effectiveness of the strategies was high yet not associated with strategy use. Increased perception of danger from IPV was significantly associated with increased use of safety planning strategies. The findings suggest that safety planning should be tailored to fit women's specific contexts. Safety planning discussions should focus on strategies that reduce women's risk of continued violence and build on women's strengths. PMID:26159732

  3. Social Stratification in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grodsky, Eric; Jackson, Erika

    2009-01-01

    Background/Context: Over the past half century, scholars in a variety of fields have contributed to our understanding of the relationship between higher education and social stratification. We review this literature, highlighting complementarities and inconsistencies. Purpose/Objective/Research Question/Focus of Study: We situate our review of the…

  4. Diagnosis and Management of Waldenström Macroglobulinemia: Mayo Stratification of Macroglobulinemia and Risk-Adapted Therapy (mSMART) Guidelines

    PubMed Central

    Ansell, Stephen M.; Kyle, Robert A.; Reeder, Craig B.; Fonseca, Rafael; Mikhael, Joseph R.; Morice, William G.; Bergsagel, P. Leif; Buadi, Francis K.; Colgan, Joseph P.; Dingli, David; Dispenzieri, Angela; Greipp, Philip R.; Habermann, Thomas M.; Hayman, Suzanne R.; Inwards, David J.; Johnston, Patrick B.; Kumar, Shaji K.; Lacy, Martha Q.; Lust, John A.; Markovic, Svetomir N.; Micallef, Ivana N. M.; Nowakowski, Grzegorz S.; Porrata, Luis F.; Roy, Vivek; Russell, Stephen J.; Short, Kristen E. Detweiler; Stewart, A. Keith; Thompson, Carrie A.; Witzig, Thomas E.; Zeldenrust, Steven R.; Dalton, Robert J.; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Gertz, Morie A.

    2010-01-01

    Waldenström macroglobulinemia is a B-cell malignancy with lymphoplasmacytic infiltration in the bone marrow or lymphatic tissue and a monoclonal immunoglobulin M protein (IgM) in the serum. It is incurable with current therapy, and the decision to treat patients as well as the choice of treatment can be complex. Using a risk-adapted approach, we provide recommendations on timing and choice of therapy. Patients with smoldering or asymptomatic Waldenström macroglobulinemia and preserved hematologic function should be observed without therapy. Symptomatic patients with modest hematologic compromise, IgM-related neuropathy that requires therapy, or hemolytic anemia unresponsive to corticosteroids should receive standard doses of rituximab alone without maintenance therapy. Patients who have severe constitutional symptoms, profound hematologic compromise, symptomatic bulky disease, or hyperviscosity should be treated with the DRC (dexamethasone, rituximab, cyclophosphamide) regimen. Any patient with symptoms of hyperviscosity should first be treated with plasmapheresis. For patients who experience relapse after a response to initial therapy of more than 2 years' duration, the original therapy should be repeated. For patients who had an inadequate response to initial therapy or a response of less than 2 years' duration, an alternative agent or combination should be used. Autologous stem cell transplant should be considered in all eligible patients with relapsed disease. PMID:20702770

  5. Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    On-going climatic changes substantially accelerate current fire regimes in Northern Eurasian ecosystems, particularly in forests. During 1998-2012, wildfires enveloped on average ~10.5 M ha year-1 in Russia with a large annual variation (between 3 and 30 M ha) and average direct carbon emissions at ~150 Tg C year-1. Catastrophic fires, which envelope large areas, spread in usually incombustible wetlands, escape from control and provide extraordinary negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, economics, infrastructure, environment, and health of population, become a typical feature of the current fire regimes. There are new evidences of correlation between catastrophic fires and large-scale climatic anomalies at a continental scale. While current climatic predictions suggest the dramatic warming (at the average at 6-7 °C for the country and up to 10-12°C in some northern continental regions), any substantial increase of summer precipitation does not expected. Increase of dryness and instability of climate will impact fire risk and severity of consequences. Current models suggest a 2-3 fold increase of the number of fires by the end of this century in the boreal zone. They predict increases of the number of catastrophic fires; a significant increase in the intensity of fire and amount of consumed fuel; synergies between different types of disturbances (outbreaks of insects, unregulated anthropogenic impacts); acceleration of composition of the gas emissions due to enhanced soil burning. If boreal forests would become a typing element, the mass mortality of trees would increase fire risk and severity. Permafrost melting and subsequent change of hydrological regimes very likely will lead to the degradation and destruction of boreal forests, as well as to the widespread irreversible replacement of forests by other underproductive vegetation types. A significant feedback between warming and escalating fire regimes is very probable in Russia and particularly in the

  6. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  7. Pre-admission NT-proBNP improves diagnostic yield and risk stratification – the NT-proBNP for EValuation of dyspnoeic patients in the Emergency Room and hospital (BNP4EVER) study

    PubMed Central

    Januzzi, James L; Medvedovski, Margarita; Sharist, Moshe; Shochat, Michael; Ashkar, Jalal; Peschansky, Pavel; Haim, Shmuel Bar; Blondheim, David S; Glikson, Michael; Shotan, Avraham

    2012-01-01

    Background: Amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level is useful to diagnose or exclude acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in dyspnoeic patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Aim: To evaluate the impact of ED NT-proBNP testing on admission, length of stay (LOS), discharge diagnosis and long-term outcome. Methods: Dyspnoeic patients were randomized in the ED to NT-proBNP testing. Admission and discharge diagnoses, and outcomes were examined. Results: During 17 months, 470 patients were enrolled and followed for 2.0±1.3 years. ADHF likelihood, determined at study conclusion by validated criteria, established ADHF diagnosis as unlikely in 86 (17%), possible in 120 (24%), and likely in 293 (59%) patients. The respective admission rates in these subgroups were 80, 91, and 96%, regardless of blinding, and 61.9% of blinded vs. 74.5% of unblinded ADHF-likely patients were correctly diagnosed at discharge (p=0.029), with similar LOS. 2-year mortality within subgroups was unaffected by test, but was lower in ADHF-likely patients with NT-proBNP levels below median (5000 pg/ml) compared with those above median (p=0.002). Incidence of recurrent cardiac events tracked NT-proBNP levels. Conclusion: ED NT-proBNP testing did not affect admission, LOS, 2-year survival, or recurrent cardiac events among study patients but improved diagnosis at discharge, and allowed risk stratification even within the ADHF-likely group. (ClinicalTrials.gov#NCT00271128) PMID:24062895

  8. Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wegscheider, S.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Muhari, A.; Anwar, H. Z.

    2011-02-01

    More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences. The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1) identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2) bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3) can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk. Within the framework of the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.

  9. Investment strategy for flexible capacity considering demand-side disruption risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Cuicui; Ji, Jianhua; Li, Xinjun

    2016-04-01

    This article considers a firm selling two product families and confronting demand-side disruption risk. The firm has the option to invest in dedicated capacities and flexible capacity. To study the optimal investment strategy, we model the firm's decision as a two-stage stochastic programming problem, in which deviation risk is restricted within a certain level. Our analysis provides the necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimal strategy and the threshold policy for the flexible capacity investment. The results in the context of deviation risk constraint are compared with results derived outside of the context of deviation risk constraint. Furthermore, a numerical example is given to depict the optimal investment strategy.

  10. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting.

    PubMed

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Gregory V; Unrine, Jason M; Wiesner, Mark R

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical-chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical-chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. PMID:26188653

  11. Cancer Stratification by Molecular Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Weber, Justus; Haberkorn, Uwe; Mier, Walter

    2015-01-01

    The lack of specificity of traditional cytotoxic drugs has triggered the development of anticancer agents that selectively address specific molecular targets. An intrinsic property of these specialized drugs is their limited applicability for specific patient subgroups. Consequently, the generation of information about tumor characteristics is the key to exploit the potential of these drugs. Currently, cancer stratification relies on three approaches: Gene expression analysis and cancer proteomics, immunohistochemistry and molecular imaging. In order to enable the precise localization of functionally expressed targets, molecular imaging combines highly selective biomarkers and intense signal sources. Thus, cancer stratification and localization are performed simultaneously. Many cancer types are characterized by altered receptor expression, such as somatostatin receptors, folate receptors or Her2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2). Similar correlations are also known for a multitude of transporters, such as glucose transporters, amino acid transporters or hNIS (human sodium iodide symporter), as well as cell specific proteins, such as the prostate specific membrane antigen, integrins, and CD20. This review provides a comprehensive description of the methods, targets and agents used in molecular imaging, to outline their application for cancer stratification. Emphasis is placed on radiotracers which are used to identify altered expression patterns of cancer associated markers. PMID:25749472

  12. Principal stratification in causal inference.

    PubMed

    Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

    2002-03-01

    Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority. PMID:11890317

  13. Liability-driven investing: an enterprise risk management strategy.

    PubMed

    Courson, William M

    2008-08-01

    Hospitals that understand their risks and how to address them, and can communicate thisto rating agencies, can improve their opportunities in the capital markets. Evaluating global risk requires that healthcare financial executives consider risks in the context of one another as well as the organization's overall strategic plan. PMID:18709866

  14. Leadership Strategies Used to Equitably Educate At-Risk Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lacey, Jacqueline Smith

    2012-01-01

    Trying to adequately and equally educate the at-risk populace has been and is still a challenge for school administrators and teachers. Students considered at-risk of academic failure is of overwhelming concern to educators who are accountable for ensuring the academic success of the at-risk populace. Considerable interests of educators connect…

  15. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies for risk communication and learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musacchio, Gemma; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Falsaperla, Susanna; Piangiamore, Giovanna Lucia; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Solarino, Stefano; Crescimbene, Massimo; Eva, Elena; Reitano, Danilo; Þorvaldsdottir, Solveig; Sousa Silva, Delta; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Damage of non-structural elements of buildings (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding, electrical and mechanical systems and furniture) is known to cause injuries and human losses. Also it has a significant impact on earthquake resilience and is yet being worldwide underestimated. The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. They were chosen because they are prone to damage level 2 and 3 (EMS-98, European Macroseismic Scale) that typically affects non-structural elements. We will develop and test a risk communication strategy taking into account the needs of households and schools, putting into practice a portfolio of best practice to reduce the most common non-structural vulnerabilities. We will target our actions to different societal groups, considering their cultural background and social vulnerabilities, and implement a participatory approach that will promote engagement and interaction between the scientific community, practitioners and citizens to foster knowledge on everyone's own neighborhoods, resilience and vulnerability. A Practical Guide for citizens will highlight that low-cost actions can be implemented to increase safety of households, meant as being the places where the most vulnerable societal groups, including children and elderly people, spend much of their time. Since our actions towards communication will include education, we will define tools that allow a clear and direct understanding of elements exposed to risk. Schools will be one of our target societal groups and their central role played at the community level will ensure spreading and strengthening of the communication process. Schools are often located in old or re-adapted buildings, formerly used for

  16. The use of risk assessment to decide the control strategy for bluetongue in Italian ruminant populations.

    PubMed

    Giovannini, Armando; MacDiarmid, Stuart; Calistri, Paolo; Conte, Annamaria; Savini, Lara; Nannini, Donatella; Weber, Steve

    2004-12-01

    The affiliation, assessment and management of risks is a traditional part of veterinary medicine. In the past, veterinary services involved in this type of activity usually assessed risks qualitatively. However, since the 1990s, quantitative methods have become increasingly important. The establishment of the World Trade Organization in 1994, and the promulgation of its Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the "SPS Agreement") led to an increased application of import risk analysis and to significant improvements in the methodology of risk analysis as applied to international trade policy for animals and animal products. However, there was very little development of risk analysis in veterinary fields other than international trade and management of health risks to consumers of animal products and little has been published on its use in the choice and definition of control or prophylaxis strategies for animal diseases. This article describes a quantitative risk assessment, which was undertaken in Italy to help choose an appropriate national response strategy following an incursion of bluetongue, an infectious disease of sheep and goats. The results obtained in this study support the use of risk analysis as a tool to assist in choosing an appropriate animal disease management strategy. The use of risk analysis in the evaluation of disease management strategies also offers advantages in international trade. It makes easier the comparison of different strategies applied in the various countries, and thus facilitates the assessment of equivalence of the guarantees provided by different strategies. PMID:15660625

  17. I Can Read! Reading Strategies That Work for Students at Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angell, Christa

    This action research project highlights the implementation of reading strategies that work for at-risk primary students. The targeted population consists of first grade students located in a suburban at-risk school. The dilemma of how to best teach children to read who are at risk for academic failure upon entering school has been documented…

  18. Lipoprotein-Associated Phospholipase A2 and High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Improve the Stratification of Ischemic Stroke Risk in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

    PubMed Central

    Nambi, Vijay; Hoogeveen, Ron C.; Chambless, Lloyd; Hu, Yijuan; Bang, Heejung; Coresh, Josef; Ni, Hanyu; Boerwinkle, Eric; Mosley, Thomas; Sharrett, Richey; Folsom, Aaron R.; Ballantyne, Christie M.

    2009-01-01

    Background and Purpose Inflammation plays a critical role in the development of vascular disease, and increased levels of the inflammatory biomarkers, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) have been shown to be associated with an increased risk for ischemic stroke. Methods In a prospective case– cohort (n=949) study in 12 762 apparently healthy, middle-aged men and women in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, we first examined whether Lp-PLA2 and hs-CRP levels improved the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) for 5-year ischemic stroke risk. We then examined how Lp-PLA2 and hs-CRP levels altered classification of individuals into low-, intermediate-, or high-risk categories compared with traditional risk factors. Results In a model using traditional risk factors alone, the AUC adjusted for optimism was 0.732, whereas adding hs-CRP improved the AUC to 0.743, and adding Lp-PLA2 significantly improved the AUC to 0.752. Addition of hs-CRP and Lp-PLA2 together in the model improved the AUC to 0.761, and the addition of the interaction between Lp-PLA2 and hs-CRP further significantly improved the AUC to 0.774. With the use of traditional risk factors to assess 5-year risk for ischemic stroke, 86% of participants were categorized as low risk (<2%); 11%, intermediate risk (2% to 5%); and 3%, high risk (>5%). The addition of hs-CRP, Lp-PLA2, and their interaction to the model reclassified 4%, 39%, and 34% of the low-, intermediate- and high-risk categories, respectively. Conclusion Lp-PLA2 and hs-CRP may be useful in individuals classified as intermediate risk for ischemic stroke by traditional risk factors. PMID:19095974

  19. Accurate cloud-based smart IMT measurement, its validation and stroke risk stratification in carotid ultrasound: A web-based point-of-care tool for multicenter clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Saba, Luca; Banchhor, Sumit K; Suri, Harman S; Londhe, Narendra D; Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Viskovic, Klaudija; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Gupta, Ajay; Nicolaides, Andrew; Suri, Jasjit S

    2016-08-01

    This study presents AtheroCloud™ - a novel cloud-based smart carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) measurement tool using B-mode ultrasound for stroke/cardiovascular risk assessment and its stratification. This is an anytime-anywhere clinical tool for routine screening and multi-center clinical trials. In this pilot study, the physician can upload ultrasound scans in one of the following formats (DICOM, JPEG, BMP, PNG, GIF or TIFF) directly into the proprietary cloud of AtheroPoint from the local server of the physician's office. They can then run the intelligent and automated AtheroCloud™ cIMT measurements in point-of-care settings in less than five seconds per image, while saving the vascular reports in the cloud. We statistically benchmark AtheroCloud™ cIMT readings against sonographer (a registered vascular technologist) readings and manual measurements derived from the tracings of the radiologist. One hundred patients (75 M/25 F, mean age: 68±11 years), IRB approved, Toho University, Japan, consisted of Left/Right common carotid artery (CCA) artery (200 ultrasound scans), (Toshiba, Tokyo, Japan) were collected using a 7.5MHz transducer. The measured cIMTs for L/R carotid were as follows (in mm): (i) AtheroCloud™ (0.87±0.20, 0.77±0.20); (ii) sonographer (0.97±0.26, 0.89±0.29) and (iii) manual (0.90±0.20, 0.79±0.20), respectively. The coefficient of correlation (CC) between sonographer and manual for L/R cIMT was 0.74 (P<0.0001) and 0.65 (P<0.0001), while, between AtheroCloud™ and manual was 0.96 (P<0.0001) and 0.97 (P<0.0001), respectively. We observed that 91.15% of the population in AtheroCloud™ had a mean cIMT error less than 0.11mm compared to sonographer's 68.31%. The area under curve for receiving operating characteristics was 0.99 for AtheroCloud™ against 0.81 for sonographer. Our Framingham Risk Score stratified the population into three bins as follows: 39% in low-risk, 70.66% in medium-risk and 10.66% in high-risk bins

  20. Continuing Developments in PV Risk Management: Strategies, Solutions, and Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Lowder, T.; Mendelsohn, M.; Speer, B.; Hill, R.

    2013-02-01

    As the PV industry matures, successful risk management practices will become more imperative to ensure investor confidence, control costs, and facilitate further growth. This report discusses several key aspects of risk management during the commercial- and utility-scale project life cycle, from identification of risks, to the process of mitigating and allocating those risks among project parties, to transferring those risks through insurance. The report also explores novel techniques in PV risk management, options to offload risks onto the capital markets, and innovative insurance policies (namely warranty policies) that address risks unique to the PV sector. One of the major justifications for robust risk management in the PV industry is the cost-reduction opportunities it affords. If the PV industry can demonstrate the capability to successfully manage its risks, thereby inspiring confidence in financiers, it may be able to obtain a lower cost of capital in future transactions. A lower cost of capital translates to a lower cost of energy, which will in turn enhance PV?s competitiveness at a time when it will have to rely less on subsidies to support its market penetration.

  1. Developmental Risk and Young Children’s Regulatory Strategies: Predicting Behavior Problems at Age Five

    PubMed Central

    Gerstein, Emily D.; Arbona, Anita Pedersen y; Crnic, Keith A.; Ryu, Ehri; Baker, Bruce L.; Blacher, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Children with early developmental delays are at heightened risk for behavior problems and comorbid psychopathology. This study examined the trajectories of regulatory capabilities and their potentially mediating role in the development of behavior problems for children with and without early developmental delays. A sample of 231 children comprised of 137 typically developing children and 94 children with developmental delays were examined during mildly frustrating laboratory tasks across the preschool period (ages 3–5). Results indicated that children with delays had greater use of maladaptive strategies (distraction, distress venting) and lower use of adaptive strategies (constructive coping) than typically developing children. For both groups, strategies had similar rates of growth across time; maladaptive strategies decreased and adaptive strategies increased. The intercept of strategy use, but not the slope, was found to mediate the relation between developmental risk and externalizing behaviors. Findings support that dysregulation, rather than the developmental risk, may be responsible for the high levels of comorbid psychopathology. PMID:21107675

  2. The strategy for assessing risks associated with remediation of the former production area at Fernald

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, M.; Avci, H.; Picel, K.; Janke, R.J.

    1993-10-01

    The strategy for assessing the risks associated with the remediation of the former Production Area at the Fernald Environmental Management Project is discussed. The general approach to risk assessment is strongly influenced by a number of factors related to the nature of the site and to management proposals that have been made concerning the site. How these factors affect the approach to assessing baseline risks, to assessing risks associated with remedial activity, and to establishing cleanup criteria are examined.

  3. Managing Liability. Employment Discrimination: A Risk Management Strategy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McMullan, Sandra H.

    This booklet discusses the risks that educational institutions face in regard to employment discrimination litigation and outlines a program to effectively manage such risks. Institutions need to address three main types of employment discrimination issues: sexual harassment, disability-based discrimination, and age discrimination. To deal with…

  4. Risk Assessment Strategies and Techniques for Combined Exposures

    EPA Science Inventory

    Author: Cynthia V. Rider, Ph.D., and Jane Ellen Simmons, Ph.D.Abstract: Consideration of cumulative risk is necessary to evaluate properly the safety of, and the risks associated with, combined exposures. These combined exposures ("mixtures") commonly occur from exposure to: envi...

  5. Chemical stratification of the mantle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, D. L.

    1979-01-01

    A possible scenario for the chemical stratification of the earth's mantle is presented. Differentiation of the mantle by either the production of basaltic magmas or partial melting by the upper mantle is proposed to lead to a thick basalt layer, the lower part of which is converted to eclogite as the earth cools. Density estimates indicate that the eclogite formed would not be able to sink to below 670 km. The eclogite layer is thus demonstrated to be trapped as a result of whole-mantle convection and possible irreversible differentiation of the mantle into eclogite and overlying residual peridotite layers.

  6. Risk definition and management strategies in retinoblastoma: current perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Ghassemi, Fariba; Khodabande, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    This manuscript focuses on high-risk factors of metastatic disease in retinoblastoma and evaluation of the current treatments of retinoblastoma. Presence of histopathologic high-risk factors is associated with a higher risk of local recurrence and systemic metastasis. Currently, globe-sparing therapies, including systemic chemotherapy, intra-arterial chemoreduction, intravitreal chemotherapy, focal consolidation, and combination therapies, are being used and investigated actively. Major advances are being made in the diagnosis and management of retinoblastoma that will lead to improved morbidity and mortality rates in patients with retinoblastoma. By saving the globes, fronting with some high-risk factors for metastasis would be inevitable. International multi-institutional prospective studies could resolve current uncertainties regarding the main tumor treatment regimens for each patient and indications for chemoprophylaxis for high-risk-factor-bearing retinoblastoma cases. PMID:26089630

  7. Evaluation of coronary artery calcium screening strategies focused on risk categories: The Dallas Heart Study

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Mahesh J.; de Lemos, James A.; McGuire, Darren K.; See, Raphael; Lindsey, Jason B.; Murphy, Sabina A.; Grundy, Scott M.; Khera, Amit

    2010-01-01

    Background A strategy using coronary artery calcium (CAC) screening to refine coronary heart disease risk assessment in moderately high risk (MHR) subjects (10-year risk 10%–20%) has been suggested. The potential impact of this strategy is unknown. Methods Coronary artery calcium screening strategies focused on MHR subjects were modeled in 2,610 subjects aged 30 to 65 years undergoing Framingham risk scoring and CAC assessment in the Dallas Heart Study. The proportions of subjects eligible for imaging and reclassified from MHR to high risk (HR) (10-year risk >20%) based upon CAC scores were determined. Results Only 1.0% of women and 15.4% of men were at MHR by Framingham risk scoring and thus eligible for imaging, and <0.1% and 1.1% respectively, changed from MHR to HR using a CAC threshold ≥400. Coronary artery calcium imaging targeting MHR subjects was also relatively inefficient (>100 women, 14.3 men scanned per subject reclassified). Restricting to an older age range (45–65 years) or expanding the MHR group to 6% to 20% risk had virtually no impact on risk assessment in women. In a secondary analysis, a proposed imaging strategy targeting promotion of subjects from lower risk to MHR was more efficient and had greater yield than current recommendations targeting promotion from MHR to HR. Conclusions Coronary artery calcium screening strategies focused on MHR subjects will have a negligible impact on risk assessment in women and a modest impact in men. Further studies are needed to optimize the use of CAC screening as an adjunct to coronary heart disease risk assessment, especially for women and those at seemingly lower risk. PMID:19464410

  8. A risk hedging strategy under the nonparallel-shift yield curve

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Pu; He, Xubiao

    2005-08-01

    Under the assumption of the movement of rigid, a nonparallel-shift model in the term structure of interest rates is developed by introducing Fisher & Weil duration which is a well-known concept in the area of interest risk management. This paper has studied the hedge and replication for portfolio immunization to minimize the risk exposure. Throughout the experiment of numerical simulation, the risk exposures of the portfolio under the different risk hedging strategies are quantitatively evaluated by the method of value at risk (VaR) order statistics (OS) estimation. The results show that the risk hedging strategy proposed in this paper is very effective for the interest risk management of the default-free bond.

  9. Risk Assessment of Investment Strategy in Distributed Energy System under Uncertainty of Fuel and Electricity Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ariki, Wakako; Asano, Hiroshi; Koda, Eiich; Bando, Shigeru

    This paper discusses investment strategies in distributed energy system consisting of cogeneration system and renewable power generation, under uncertainty in the natural gas and the electricity prices as well as related risk assessment of investment strategies. Although incentives for introducing distributed energy system increase these days, volatile natural gas prices make its investment risky. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the risk under uncertainty and find strategies which reduce the exposure to volatility. We take the real option approach to analyze investment decision. By varying the parameters of prices volatility and correlation between uncertainty of natural gas price with that of electricity price, we find that the optimal investment strategy depends on the level of uncertainty and correlation. When volatility is large and correlation is small, strategies with installation option of small renewable power generation, here, photovoltaic generation, and small cogeneration system become attractive in terms of risk reduction.

  10. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  11. Helping At-Risk College Students Help Themselves through Humor: A Reading and Writing Strategy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huffman, Lois E.

    1994-01-01

    Outlines the many benefits of humor. Describes a reading and writing strategy to help at-risk college students reduce stress, appreciate the humor in many areas of college life, and use reading and writing about humorous college situations as a tool for developing critical thinking. Describes an application of the strategy. (SR)

  12. Corrective Strategies in Reading for At-Risk Community College Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yevoli, Carole

    Focusing on corrective strategies for improving reading skills of at-risk community college students, this document reviews the history of such strategies, highlights current efforts, and assesses future needs. The first section traces the history of remedial reading programs at community colleges, beginning with small individualized sections…

  13. Effective Instructional Strategies for Kindergarten and First-Grade Students at Risk in Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clarke, Ben; Doabler, Christian T.; Nelson, Nancy J.; Shanley, Caroline

    2015-01-01

    This article provides an overview of effective instructional strategies and interventions for kindergarten and first-grade students at risk in mathematics. The article reviews instructional strategies and interventions within a multitier instructional model in order to provide a framework for teachers and schools looking to increase the…

  14. Investigating the formal countermeasures and informal strategies used to mitigate SPAD risk in train driving.

    PubMed

    Naweed, Anjum; Rainbird, Sophia; Chapman, Janine

    2015-01-01

    Various countermeasures are used to mitigate signal passed at danger (SPAD) events on railways, yet they continue. While risk factors that destabilise cognitive processes have been identified, less has been published on the relationship between these factors and the informal strategies that drivers themselves adopt to reduce individual SPAD risk. This study aimed to address this gap and used a participative approach to collect and thematically analyse data from 28 drivers across eight rail organisations in Australia and New Zealand. The results showed not all formal countermeasures were considered effective, and identified several informal strategies. These aimed to reduce task disruption, service distortion and maintain connectedness to signals. While some evidenced redundancies in the task and cab, others did not reduce baseline risk. This paper explores the relationship between the established risks and identified strategies towards evaluating the utility of formal and informal mitigations. The research has application to the investigation of collision risk in all transport domains. Practitioner Summary: A participative approach was used to investigate SPAD mitigation techniques in train driving, and to explore risk-strategy relationship dynamics. Several informal strategies designed to reduce task disruption, service distortion and maintain signal connectedness were identified. While some evidenced redundancies in the task and cab, others did not reduce baseline risk. PMID:25597849

  15. Effective Poster Teaching Strategy Towards Risk in Studying Fraud

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aziz, Rozainun Haji Abdul; Jusoff, Kamaruzaman

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present an alternative method and strategy in teaching and learning for the higher institution of learning. Poster presentation is an approach to introduce and deliver a lecture to create a different mood enticed by the visuals given. This poster presents a new approach of creativity as a method of teaching and learning…

  16. Central hemodynamics in risk assessment strategies: additive value over and above brachial blood pressure.

    PubMed

    Yannoutsos, Alexandra; Rinaldi, Elisa R; Zhang, Yi; Protogerou, Athanassios D; Safar, Michel E; Blacher, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    Although the clinical relevance of brachial blood pressure (BP) measurement for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is nowadays widely accepted, this approach can nevertheless present several limitations. Pulse pressure (PP) amplification accounts for the notable increase in PP from central to peripheral arterial sites. Target organs are more greatly exposed to central hemodynamic changes than peripheral organs. The pathophysiological significance of local BP pulsatility, which has a role in the pathogenesis of target organ damage in both the macro- and the microcirculation, may therefore not be accurately captured by brachial BP as traditionally evaluated with cuff measurements. The predictive value of central systolic BP and PP over brachial BP for major clinical outcomes has been demonstrated in the general population, in elderly adults and in patients at high CV risk, irrespective of the invasive or non-invasive methods used to assess central BP. Aortic stiffness, timing and intensity of wave reflections, and cardiac performance appear as major factors influencing central PP. Great emphasis has been placed on the role of aortic stiffness, disturbed arterial wave reflections and their intercorrelation in the pathophysiological mechanisms of CV diseases as well as on their capacity to predict target organ damage and clinical events. Comorbidities and age-related changes, together with gender-related specificities of arterial and cardiac parameters, are known to affect the predictive ability of central hemodynamics on individual CV risk. PMID:25341861

  17. Management strategies to reduce risk of postoperative infections

    PubMed Central

    Galor, Anat; Goldhardt, Raquel; Wellik, Sarah R.; Gregori, Ninel Z.; Flynn, Harry W.

    2013-01-01

    Postoperative infections, although rare, are still of great concern to the ophthalmologist. The incidence of post-cataract endophthalmitis is low, with a range of .28 per 1,000 to 2.99 per 1000. In addition to intraoperative considerations such as poor wound construction, vitreous loss, topical anesthesia, and prolonged surgical time, other risk factors include preoperative factors such as a diseased ocular surface and systemic immunosuppression. Potential methods of reducing risk of endophthalmitis after anterior segment surgery are discussed and available literature is summarized. PMID:24319649

  18. Increasing Achievement of At-Risk Students through the Use of Metacognitive Strategies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lidgus, Cathy; Vassos, Sophia

    A metacognition instructional strategy was employed to increase class participation and motivation in 21 seventh grade "at-risk" students at 2 schools in the context of the national problem of meeting the needs of "at-risk" students. A survey of the students' content area teachers and of the students themselves found evidence of the students'…

  19. Worksite Follow-Up and Engagement Strategies for Initiating Health Risk Behavior Changes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gregg, Walter; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Employees of four manufacturing plants who were at risk because of high blood pressure, obesity, or smoking were periodically contacted by wellness counselors. Over a three-year period, seven strategies for behavior change were used. High blood pressure clients were most likely to begin risk reduction actions. Frequency of followup showed positive…

  20. Effects of a Learning Strategies Course on At-Risk, First-Year Science Majors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haning, Blanche C.; Donley, Jan; Eckard, Norma

    2002-01-01

    Examined the results of at-risk students' participation in a learning strategies tutorial concurrently with enrollment in general biology. Results were mixed, but refinement of the tutorial in a follow-up study showed positive changes in learning behavior and higher final grades than at-risk control group students. (EV)

  1. Beyond Remediation: School-Based Strategies for Reducing Educational Risk. Research Brief #3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New York City Board of Education, Brooklyn, NY. Office of Research, Evaluation, and Assessment.

    At-risk students in New York City schools display one or more of a broad range of characteristics associated with a high probability of academic failure. School Based Management/Shared Decision-Making (SBM/SDM) gives school professionals and parents the ability to choose among available strategies for reducing risk by implementing those strategies…

  2. Report of Pilot Project Regarding Strategies for Enhancing Self-Esteem of At-Risk Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Helge, Doris

    A pilot project was conducted to determine effective strategies for enhancing the self-esteem of "at-risk" students. The project involved middle school students (N=12) from a wide variety of socioeconomic backgrounds and ability levels. The students were determined to be "at-risk" for learning because of depression, child abuse, sexual activity,…

  3. Street Crossings: Analyzing Risks, Developing Strategies, and Making Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauerburger, Dona

    2005-01-01

    This article proposes an approach to teaching street crossing to students who are visually impaired that considers the risks, ambiguity, and complexity of today's intersections. Thirty or 40 years ago, street crossing was a straightforward task for travelers with visual impairments (that is, those who are blind or have low vision). The…

  4. Environmentally Mediated Risks for Psychopathology: Research Strategies and Findings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutter, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To consider the research design requirements needed to provide a rigorous test of environmental mediation hypotheses and to summarize the main findings from research using such designs. Method: Selective review of empirical evidence dealing with psychopathology. Results: There is robust evidence of environmentally mediated risks for…

  5. Risk Factors and Prevention Strategies for Suicide among the Elderly

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franks, Rebecca; Burnett, Donna O.; Evans, Retta R.

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is a preventable public health concern affecting the nation as the 10th leading cause of death. The prevalence of suicide among the elderly is higher than any other group. Risk factors attributed to this phenomenon are depression, social isolation, substance abuse, poor physical health or function, financial stress, and access to lethal…

  6. Tutoring: A Support Strategy for At-Risk Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rheinheimer, David C.; Grace-Odeleye, Beverlyn; Francois, Germain E.; Kusorgbor, Cynthia

    2010-01-01

    A longitudinal research study was conducted at a public university in Pennsylvania on a sample of 129 at-risk students from a state-funded program (Act 101) designed to provide support services for economically and educationally disadvantaged students. This research employed a non-experimental, ex post facto methodology to assess the impact of…

  7. Instructional Alternatives: Rescue Strategies for At-Risk Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wircenski, Jerry L.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    An instructional plan to rescue at-risk students must be based on a curriculum intended to serve all students. The creation of a functional curriculum, the promotion of employability skills, and an emphasis on improving study skills are instructional patterns that seem to be effective in reducing the number of student dropouts. Two alternatives…

  8. New Strategies for Managing Risks: A Balancing Act for Boards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pelletier, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    The stately collegiate gothic buildings that define the iconic West Campus at Duke University evoke a strong sense of stability and the status quo. Like all institutions of higher learning, Duke faces many potential challenges to campus equilibrium--some of which could prove devastating to the university. Risk is inherent in academe, yet colleges…

  9. Stable density stratification solar pond

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansing, F. L. (Inventor)

    1985-01-01

    A stable density-stratification solar pond for use in the collection and storage of solar thermal energy including a container having a first section characterized by an internal wall of a substantially cylindrical configuration and a second section having an internal wall of a substantially truncated conical configuration surmounting the first section in coaxial alignment therewith, the second section of said container being characterized by a base of a diameter substantially equal to the diameter of the first section and a truncated apex defining a solar energy acceptance opening is discussed. A body of immiscible liquids is disposed within the container and comprises a lower portion substantially filling the first section of the container and an upper portion substantially filling the second section of the container, said lower portion being an aqueous based liquid of a darker color than the upper portion and of a greater density. A protective cover plate is removably provided for covering the acceptance opening.

  10. Alternative Testing Strategies for Nanomaterials: State of the Science and Considerations for Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Shatkin, J A; Ong, K J

    2016-08-01

    The rapid growth of the nanotechnology industry has warranted equal progress in the nanotoxicology and risk assessment fields. In vivo models have traditionally been used to determine human and environmental risk for chemicals; however, the use of these tests has limitations, and there are global appeals to develop reliable alternatives to animal testing. Many have investigated the use of alternative (nonanimal) testing methods and strategies have quickly developed and resulted in the generation of large toxicological data sets for numerous nanomaterials (NMs). Due to the novel physicochemical properties of NMs that are related to surface characteristics, the approach toward toxicity test development has distinct considerations from traditional chemicals, bringing new requirements for adapting these approaches for NMs. The methodical development of strategies that combine multiple alternative tests can be useful for predictive NM risk assessment and help screening-level decision making. This article provides an overview of the main developments in alternative methods and strategies for reducing uncertainty in NM risk assessment, including advantages and disadvantages of in vitro, ex vivo, and in silico methods, and examples of existing comprehensive strategies. In addition, knowledge gaps are identified toward improvements for experimental and strategy design, specifically highlighting the need to represent realistic exposure scenarios and to consider NM-specific concerns such as characterization, assay interferences, and standardization. Overall, this article aims to improve the reliability and utility of alternative testing methods and strategies for risk assessment of manufactured NMs. PMID:27273523

  11. Child Pedestrian Injury: A Review of Behavioral Risks and Preventive Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Schwebel, David C.; Davis, Aaron L.; O’Neal, Elizabeth E.

    2011-01-01

    Pedestrian injury is among the leading causes of pediatric death in the United States and much of the world. This paper is divided into two sections. First, we review the literature on behavioral risk factors for child injury. Cognitive and perceptual development risks are discussed. The roles of distraction, temperament and personality, and social influences from parents and peers are presented. We conclude the first section with brief reviews of environmental risks, pedestrian safety among special populations, and the role of sleep and fatigue on pediatric pedestrian safety. The second section of the review considers child pedestrian injury prevention strategies. Categorized by mode of presentation, we discuss parent instruction strategies, school-based instruction strategies (including crossing guards), and streetside training techniques. Technology-based training strategies using video, internet, and virtual reality are reviewed. We conclude the section on prevention with discussion of community-based interventions. PMID:23066380

  12. Parent birds assess nest predation risk and adjust their reproductive strategies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fontaine, J.J.; Martin, T.E.

    2006-01-01

    Avian life history theory has long assumed that nest predation plays a minor role in shaping reproductive strategies. Yet, this assumption remains conspicuously untested by broad experiments that alter environmental risk of nest predation, despite the fact that nest predation is a major source of reproductive failure. Here, we examined whether parents can assess experimentally reduced nest predation risk and alter their reproductive strategies. We experimentally reduced nest predation risk and show that in safer environments parents increased investment in young through increased egg size, clutch mass, and the rate they fed nestlings. Parents also increased investment in female condition by increasing the rates that males fed incubating females at the nest, and decreasing the time that females spent incubating. These results demonstrate that birds can assess nest predation risk at large and that nest predation plays a key role in the expression of avian reproductive strategies. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  13. Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

  14. Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

    PubMed

    Kogi, K

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools. PMID:17017363

  15. Stratification of complexity in congenital heart surgery: comparative study of the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method, Aristotle basic score and Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio- Thoracic Surgery (STS-EACTS) mortality score

    PubMed Central

    Cavalcanti, Paulo Ernando Ferraz; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; dos Santos, Cecília Andrade; Esmeraldo, Isaac Melo; Chaves, Mariana Leal; Lins, Ricardo Felipe de Albuquerque; Lima, Ricardo de Carvalho

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine whether stratification of complexity models in congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1, Aristotle basic score and STS-EACTS mortality score) fit to our center and determine the best method of discriminating hospital mortality. Methods Surgical procedures in congenital heart diseases in patients under 18 years of age were allocated to the categories proposed by the stratification of complexity methods currently available. The outcome hospital mortality was calculated for each category from the three models. Statistical analysis was performed to verify whether the categories presented different mortalities. The discriminatory ability of the models was determined by calculating the area under the ROC curve and a comparison between the curves of the three models was performed. Results 360 patients were allocated according to the three methods. There was a statistically significant difference between the mortality categories: RACHS-1 (1) - 1.3%, (2) - 11.4%, (3)-27.3%, (4) - 50 %, (P<0.001); Aristotle basic score (1) - 1.1%, (2) - 12.2%, (3) - 34%, (4) - 64.7%, (P<0.001); and STS-EACTS mortality score (1) - 5.5 %, (2) - 13.6%, (3) - 18.7%, (4) - 35.8%, (P<0.001). The three models had similar accuracy by calculating the area under the ROC curve: RACHS-1- 0.738; STS-EACTS-0.739; Aristotle- 0.766. Conclusion The three models of stratification of complexity currently available in the literature are useful with different mortalities between the proposed categories with similar discriminatory capacity for hospital mortality. PMID:26107445

  16. [Crohn's disease and cancer risk. Incidence/prevalence, clinical characteristics, and potential prevention strategies].

    PubMed

    Allgayer, Hubert; Holtmeier, Wolfgang; Dietrich, Christoph F

    2007-09-15

    Epidemiologic data concerning the risk for colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis are based on a variety of large and well-conducted cohort studies. Guidelines for tumor prevention have been published by the German Gastroenterology Society (DGVS) in 2004. By contrast, the risk constellations in Crohn's disease are less clear and guidelines are lacking. Based on a recent literature search (PubMed March 2007), the published data predominantly expressed as relative risk and/or standardized incidence/mortality ratio are critically reviewed with recommendations for tumor prevention strategies based on individual risk constellations. PMID:17879011

  17. Minimizing litigation risk. Documentation strategies in the occupational health setting.

    PubMed

    Baker, S K

    2000-02-01

    When advice is given by telephone, nurses are relying on employees' or clients' own assessments of situations. Nurses do not have the benefit of examination and objective findings. Therefore, every occupational health practice should have a system for keeping a record of telephone calls. Noncompliance should be documented so the nurse is reminded of the need to consider compliance when caring for the client in the future. Documentation of report tracking and follow up, consent, client education, and discharge information contributes to improved quality of care and reduced risk of litigation. Client records should never be altered (i.e., changed) so the original entry is no longer visible. The SLIDE (Single Line, Initials, Date, Explanation) rule should be used. PMID:10865552

  18. Mediation analysis with principal stratification.

    PubMed

    Gallop, Robert; Small, Dylan S; Lin, Julia Y; Elliott, Michael R; Joffe, Marshall; Ten Have, Thomas R

    2009-03-30

    In assessing the mechanism of treatment efficacy in randomized clinical trials, investigators often perform mediation analyses by analyzing if the significant intent-to-treat treatment effect on outcome occurs through or around a third intermediate or mediating variable: indirect and direct effects, respectively. Standard mediation analyses assume sequential ignorability, i.e. conditional on covariates the intermediate or mediating factor is randomly assigned, as is the treatment in a randomized clinical trial. This research focuses on the application of the principal stratification (PS) approach for estimating the direct effect of a randomized treatment but without the standard sequential ignorability assumption. This approach is used to estimate the direct effect of treatment as a difference between expectations of potential outcomes within latent subgroups of participants for whom the intermediate variable behavior would be constant, regardless of the randomized treatment assignment. Using a Bayesian estimation procedure, we also assess the sensitivity of results based on the PS approach to heterogeneity of the variances among these principal strata. We assess this approach with simulations and apply it to two psychiatric examples. Both examples and the simulations indicated robustness of our findings to the homogeneous variance assumption. However, simulations showed that the magnitude of treatment effects derived under the PS approach were sensitive to model mis-specification. PMID:19184975

  19. Children's online coping strategies: Rethinking coping typologies in a risk-specific approach.

    PubMed

    Vandoninck, Sofie; d'Haenens, Leen

    2015-12-01

    Understanding how children deal with problematic situations online is helpful in developing efficient awareness raising and online resilience building initiatives. In this article, we will discuss and develop typologies for online coping strategies. In a school survey, 2046 Flemish children aged 10-16 were asked about how they (would) respond when confronted with different types of online risks. Using principal component analyses and multi-dimensional scaling, we identified different types of cross-risk and risk-specific coping strategies, and explored which types of coping have similar underlying meanings. The results suggest to distinguish behavioral avoidance tactics from mere passive responses or indifference. Young people tend to perceive online coping strategies along two dimensions: engagement versus disengagement and technical versus non-technical measures. Behavioral avoidance is popular among younger children and is associated with a medium level of active engagement and often combined with communicative approaches. Girls are more communicative and respond more proactively. PMID:26513127

  20. The Precautionary Principle: implications for risk management strategies.

    PubMed

    Saltelli, Andrea; Funtowicz, Silvio

    2004-01-01

    The European Commission has published a Communication on the Precautionary Principle and a White Book on Governance. These provide us (as research civil servants of the Commission) an institutional framework for handling scientific information that is often incomplete, uncertain, and contested. But, although the Precautionary Principle is intuitively straightforward to understand, there is no agreed way of applying it to real decision-making. To meet this perceived need, researchers have proposed a vast number of taxonomies. These include ignorance auditing, type one-two-three errors, a combination of uncertainty and decision stakes through post-normal science and the plotting of ignorance of probabilities against ignorance of consequences. Any of these could be used to define a precautionary principle region inside a multidimensional space and to position an issue within that region. The role of anticipatory research is clearly critical but scientific input is only part of the picture. It is difficult to imagine an issue where the application of the Precautionary Principle would be non-contentious. From genetically-modified food to electro-smog, from climate change to hormone growth in meat, it is clear that: 1) risk and cost-benefit are only part of the picture; 2) there are ethical issues involved; 3) there is a plurality of interests and perspectives that are often in conflict; 4) there will be losers and winners whatever decision is made. Operationalization of the Precautionary Principle must preserve transparency. Only in this way will the incommensurable costs and benefits associated with different stakeholders be registered. A typical decision will include the following sorts of considerations: 1) the commercial interests of companies and the communities that depend on them; 2) the worldviews of those who might want a greener, less consumerist society and/or who believe in the sanctity of human or animal life; 3) potential benefits such as enabling the

  1. Talking about familial breast cancer risk: topics and strategies to enhance mother-daughter interactions.

    PubMed

    Fisher, Carla L; Maloney, Erin; Glogowski, Emily; Hurley, Karen; Edgerson, Shawna; Lichtenthal, Wendy G; Kissane, David; Bylund, Carma

    2014-04-01

    A hereditary cancer predisposition can rattle families, creating dysfunctional interactions. Families need assistance navigating conversations about risk. Because mothers and daughters uniquely share breast cancer experiences and risk, there is a particular need for practitioners to assist them with communication. Three focus groups were conducted with 11 mothers with an elevated cancer risk (with adolescent daughters) receiving genetic counseling. We explored three inquiries to capture mother-daughter communication: emergent challenging topics (e.g., health-promotion behavior, daughter's risk, mother's risk of death), factors complicating discussions (e.g., balancing what to share and when, guilt and blaming, confusion about risk and prevention), and strategies enhancing conversations initiated by mothers (e.g., paying attention to daughter's cues) or practitioners (e.g., inviting daughters to appointments). Findings suggested that mothers struggle to balance eliciting daughters' concerns, providing them with support, and imparting knowledge without overwhelming them. We offer mothers and practitioners guidance to help facilitate these conversations. PMID:24633365

  2. Fundamental Interactions in Gasoline Compression Ignition Engines with Fuel Stratification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolk, Benjamin Matthew

    Transportation accounted for 28% of the total U.S. energy demand in 2011, with 93% of U.S. transportation energy coming from petroleum. The large impact of the transportation sector on global climate change necessitates more-efficient, cleaner-burning internal combustion engine operating strategies. One such strategy that has received substantial research attention in the last decade is Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI). Although the efficiency and emissions benefits of HCCI are well established, practical limits on the operating range of HCCI engines have inhibited their application in consumer vehicles. One such limit is at high load, where the pressure rise rate in the combustion chamber becomes excessively large. Fuel stratification is a potential strategy for reducing the maximum pressure rise rate in HCCI engines. The aim is to introduce reactivity gradients through fuel stratification to promote sequential auto-ignition rather than a bulk-ignition, as in the homogeneous case. A gasoline-fueled compression ignition engine with fuel stratification is termed a Gasoline Compression Ignition (GCI) engine. Although a reasonable amount of experimental research has been performed for fuel stratification in GCI engines, a clear understanding of how the fundamental in-cylinder processes of fuel spray evaporation, mixing, and heat release contribute to the observed phenomena is lacking. Of particular interest is gasoline's pressure sensitive low-temperature chemistry and how it impacts the sequential auto-ignition of the stratified charge. In order to computationally study GCI with fuel stratification using three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and chemical kinetics, two reduced mechanisms have been developed. The reduced mechanisms were developed from a large, detailed mechanism with about 1400 species for a 4-component gasoline surrogate. The two versions of the reduced mechanism developed in this work are: (1) a 96-species version and (2

  3. Potential Risks and Mitigation Strategies Before the Conduct of a Clinical Trial: An Industry Perspective.

    PubMed

    Bhagat, Seema; Kapatkar, Vaibhavi K; Mourya, Meenakshi; Roy, Sucheta; Jha, Shailendra; Reddy, Rajasekhar; Kadhe, Ganesh; Mane, Amey; Sawant, Sandesh

    2016-01-01

    Conduct of clinical trials has undergone substantial changes over the last two decades. Newer markets, evolving guidelines and documentation and high cost involved in conducting the trials have led pharmaceutical companies to prepare a risk mitigation plan. Extensive monitoring of potential risks is an essential element of clinical trials which helps to ensure quality and integrity of a clinical investigation. Every clinical trial has pre (before the trial), conduct and post phase. This article which has been developed as a result of extensive research at ground level by a reputed pharmaceutical company to identify the potential stages of risks that could affect the overall quality and safety of a trial and its outcome during the pre-phase of trial (the stage of the trial where the study design is being planned before initiation of the clinical trial). It includes risks associated with basic study concept, protocol design, Confidential Disclosure Agreement (CDA) and Clinical Trial Authorization (CTA) application signing, vendors of central drug laboratory, site and investigator selection, Clinical Research Coordinator (CRC) meet, Informed Consent Form (ICF), Case Report Form (CRF)/ Status Report Form (SRF) preparation, Ethics Committee (EC) submission, etc. have been highlighted. The risk based mitigation strategy (to develop an effective risk monitoring plan before staring a clinical trial) has also been suggested by authors. A well-tailored and integrated plan, recognition of potential risks and their mitigation strategy can result in the pre exclusion or end to end solution of all the risks associated with pre- phase of clinical trials. PMID:26435140

  4. Vision and falls in older people: risk factors and intervention strategies.

    PubMed

    Lord, Stephen R; Smith, Stuart T; Menant, Jasmine C

    2010-11-01

    Poor vision impairs balance and increases the risk of falls and fractures in older people. Multifocal glasses can add to this risk by impairing contrast sensitivity, depth perception, and ability to negotiate obstacles. Vision assessment and provision of new spectacles may not reduce, and may even increase, the risk of falls. Restriction of the use of multifocal glasses may reduce falls in active older people. Other effective fall prevention strategies include maximizing vision through cataract surgery and occupational therapy interventions in visually impaired older people. PMID:20934611

  5. Mud Pit Risk-Based Closure Strategy Report, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, Revision 0

    SciTech Connect

    Brain Hoenes

    2004-08-01

    This report presents the findings of the human and ecological risk assessment for the NTS mud pits. The risk assessment utilizes data from 52 of the 270 NTS mud pits in conjunction with corroborative data from 87 other DOE mud pits associated with nuclear testing (at locations on the NTS, in the western United States, and Alaska) as well as relevant process knowledge. Based on the risk assessment findings, the report provides a strategy for further evaluation, characterization, and closure of all 270 NTS mud pit CASs using the Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER).

  6. Word-Problem-Solving Strategy for Minority Students at Risk for Math Difficulties

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kong, Jennifer E.; Orosco, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Minority students at risk for math difficulties (MD) struggle with word problems for various reasons beyond procedural or calculation challenges. As a result, these students require support in reading and language development in addition to math. The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of a math comprehension strategy based on a…

  7. Early Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors, Conflict Resolution Strategies, and School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    LaRusso, Maria; Selman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Drawing upon an ethnically and socio-economically diverse sample of 323 7th grade students from twelve urban schools within one school district, this mixed method study examined early adolescents' self-reported health risk behaviors as related to their conflict resolution strategies and their school's conflict resolution climate. Survey data…

  8. Discovering a Gold Mine of Strategies for At-Risk Students through Systematic Staff Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bernal, Jesse R.; Villarreal, Diana

    This paper discusses an effective model of systematic staff development focusing on prevention and intervention strategies used with at-risk students. The following are key elements: (1) matching of the purposes of training to the goals of the school districts; (2) multiple and integrated activities; (3) participants' thorough orientation to the…

  9. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-03

    ...The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The purpose of the public workshop is to initiate constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry, health care organizations, health......

  10. Exploring Young Children's Understanding of Risks Associated with Internet Usage and Their Concepts of Management Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ey, Lesley-Anne; Cupit, C. Glenn

    2011-01-01

    The Internet provides remarkable opportunities for children's learning and development. Nevertheless, it is unregulated and hard to control, which potentially places children at risk of exploitation. This study examined five-eight-year-old children's understanding of dangers associated with the Internet, management strategies and sources of their…

  11. Promoting At-Risk Preschool Children's Comprehension through Research-Based Strategy Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeBruin-Parecki, Andrea; Squibb, Kathryn

    2011-01-01

    Young children living in poor urban neighborhoods are often at risk for reading difficulties, in part because developing listening comprehension strategies and vocabulary knowledge may not be a priority in their prekindergarten classrooms, whose curriculums typically focus heavily on phonological awareness and alphabet knowledge. Prereading…

  12. STRATEGY FOR RESEARCH ON ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS TO CHILDREN (EXTERNAL PEER REVIEW DRAFT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Draft Strategy for Research on Environmental Risks to Children describes the research directions that EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) will follow over the next five years in its Children's Health Program. The primary objective of the Program is to conduct resea...

  13. 78 FR 30313 - Standardizing and Evaluating Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-22

    ... standardization and assessment of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for drug and biological... standardization and evaluation, FDA will hold a public meeting to give stakeholders, including health care... number for the public meeting as follows: ``Docket No. FDA-2013-N-0502, ``Standardization and...

  14. A framework for risk assessment and decision-making strategies in dangerous good transportation.

    PubMed

    Fabiano, B; Currò, F; Palazzi, E; Pastorino, R

    2002-07-01

    The risk from dangerous goods transport by road and strategies for selecting road load/routes are faced in this paper, by developing an original site-oriented framework of general applicability at local level. A realistic evaluation of the frequency must take into account on one side inherent factors (e.g. tunnels, rail bridges, bend radii, slope, characteristics of neighborhood, etc.) on the other side factors correlated to the traffic conditions (e.g. dangerous goods trucks, etc.). Field data were collected on the selected highway, by systematic investigation, providing input data for a database reporting tendencies and intrinsic parameter/site-oriented statistics. The developed technique was applied to a pilot area, considering both the individual risk and societal risk and making reference to flammable and explosive scenarios. In this way, a risk assessment, sensitive to route features and population exposed, is proposed, so that the overall uncertainties in risk analysis can be lowered. PMID:12062950

  15. The Effectiveness of Different Diet Strategies to Reduce Type 2 Diabetes Risk in Youth

    PubMed Central

    Gow, Megan L.; Garnett, Sarah P.; Baur, Louise A.; Lister, Natalie B.

    2016-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents has become a prominent clinical issue in recent decades. Increasing numbers of young people have risk factors for type 2 diabetes, particularly obesity, indicating the need for effective type 2 diabetes prevention strategies. The aim of this review was to identify specific dietary strategies that optimize improvements in risk factors for type 2 diabetes in youth and hence reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes development. Our review of the current literature indicates that dietary interventions lead to weight loss when intervention adherence is high. However, in addition to weight loss, a diet that is reduced in carbohydrates may optimize improvements in other type 2 diabetes risk factors, including insulin resistance and hyperglycemia. While further research is needed to confirm this finding, reduced carbohydrate diets may include a very low-carbohydrate diet, a very low-energy diet, a lower-glycemic-index diet, and/or an intermittent fasting diet. This array of dietary strategies provides a suite of intervention options for clinicians to recommend to young people at risk of type 2 diabetes. However, these findings are in contrast to current guidelines for the prevention of type 2 diabetes in adults which recommends a low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet. PMID:27517953

  16. Communication strategies to address geohydrological risks: the POLARIS web initiative in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvati, Paola; Pernice, Umberto; Bianchi, Cinzia; Marchesini, Ivan; Fiorucci, Federica; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2016-06-01

    Floods and landslides are common phenomena that cause serious damage and pose a severe threat to the population of Italy. The social and economic impact of floods and landslides in Italy is severe, and strategies to target the mitigation of the effects of these phenomena are needed. In the last few years, the scientific community has started to use web technology to communicate information on geohydrological hazards and the associated risks. However, the communication is often targeted at technical experts. In the attempt to communicate relevant information on geohydrological hazards with potential human consequences to a broader audience, we designed the POpoLazione A RISchio (POLARIS) website. POLARIS publishes accurate information on geohydrological risk to the population of Italy, including periodic reports on landslide and flood risk, analyses of specific damaging events and blog posts on landslide and flood events. By monitoring the access to POLARIS in the 21-month period between January 2014 and October 2015, we found that access increased during particularly damaging geohydrological events and immediately after the website was advertised by press releases. POLARIS demonstrates that the scientific community can implement suitable communication strategies that address different societal audiences, exploiting the role of mass media and social media. The strategies can help multiple audiences understand how risks can be reduced through appropriate measures and behaviours, contributing to increasing the resilience of the population to geohydrological risk.

  17. The Effectiveness of Different Diet Strategies to Reduce Type 2 Diabetes Risk in Youth.

    PubMed

    Gow, Megan L; Garnett, Sarah P; Baur, Louise A; Lister, Natalie B

    2016-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents has become a prominent clinical issue in recent decades. Increasing numbers of young people have risk factors for type 2 diabetes, particularly obesity, indicating the need for effective type 2 diabetes prevention strategies. The aim of this review was to identify specific dietary strategies that optimize improvements in risk factors for type 2 diabetes in youth and hence reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes development. Our review of the current literature indicates that dietary interventions lead to weight loss when intervention adherence is high. However, in addition to weight loss, a diet that is reduced in carbohydrates may optimize improvements in other type 2 diabetes risk factors, including insulin resistance and hyperglycemia. While further research is needed to confirm this finding, reduced carbohydrate diets may include a very low-carbohydrate diet, a very low-energy diet, a lower-glycemic-index diet, and/or an intermittent fasting diet. This array of dietary strategies provides a suite of intervention options for clinicians to recommend to young people at risk of type 2 diabetes. However, these findings are in contrast to current guidelines for the prevention of type 2 diabetes in adults which recommends a low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet. PMID:27517953

  18. Managing uncertainties of hazard risks - adaptation strategies to sustain human security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liotta, P.; Klose, C. D.

    2010-12-01

    With regard to severities of natural forces events, measures to mitigate associated hazard risks take place under high uncertainties (i.e., information entropy). In terms of decision making, this fog of uncertainties “tends to make things seem grotesque and larger than they really are." (v. Clausewitz) Thus, expected socioeconomic risks associated with nature- or human-triggered hazards range over a wide spectrum and make decision making processes often cumbersome (e.g, 2005 Hurricane Katrina, 2010 Mexican Golf coast oil spills). Here, we present strategies with several tactical measures to mitigate expected risks and improve human security. Both, hazard and vulnerability mitigation/reduction strategies will be discussed in the context of nature-triggered hazards (e.g., volcanic, atmospheric events) and human-triggered hazards (e.g., earthquakes, environmental changes).

  19. Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

  20. Preventing Chronic Pain following Acute Pain: Risk Factors, Preventive Strategies, and their Efficacy

    PubMed Central

    McGreevy, Kai; Bottros, Michael M.; Raja, Srinivasa N.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic pain is the leading cause of disability in the United States. The transition from acute to persistent pain is thought to arise from maladaptive neuroplastic mechanisms involving three intertwined processes, peripheral sensitization, central sensitization, and descending modulation. Strategies aimed at preventing persistent pain may target such processes. Models for studying preventive strategies include persistent post-surgical pain (PPP), persistent post-trauma pain (PTP) and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN). Such entities allow a more defined acute onset of tissue injury after which study of the long-term effects is more easily examined. In this review, we examine the pathophysiology, epidemiology, risk factors, and treatment strategies for the prevention of chronic pain using these models. Both pharmacological and interventional approaches are described, as well as a discussion of preventive strategies on the horizon. PMID:22102847

  1. Coronary heart disease: interplay between changing concepts of aetiology, risk distribution, and social strategies for prevention.

    PubMed

    McMichael, A J

    1989-01-01

    Epidemic diseases move in grand cycles, accompanying changes in culture, social organization, and environment. Coronary heart disease (CHD), a mass disease of twentieth century industrialized society, has a predominantly environmental aetiology. Although the major biomedical risk factors appear to have been identified over the past 40 years of epidemiological research, we are not certain why CHD is now on the wane in most Western nations. In Australia, CHD death rates have, since 1968, declined much more in professional and white-collar men than in blue-collar men. Any substantial reduction in CHD rates will require a generalized population shift towards a lower CHD risk profile. Numerically, the greatest gains should come from reducing the CHD risk of the bulk of the population, who are currently at medium risk of CHD. Notions of risk need, in the first instance, to be based on up-to-date knowledge of biomedical risk factors and mechanisms in order to develop optimal intervention strategies. A population-based strategy can be achieved via community education and structural modification of the social environment. The latter approach will require public health research into broader questions of the social-environmental influences on population cardiovascular health: for example, research into the social, political, and economic determinants of national food and nutrition policies; and into the various environmental (including workplace) changes that will facilitate risk-lowering behaviour. Hopefully, intervention strategies in such areas, set within a community development context, will be developed within the incipient National Program for Better Health.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:2661131

  2. Acute Hepatitis C Virus in an HIV Clinic: A Screening Strategy, Risk Factors, and Perception of Risk

    PubMed Central

    DeLong, A.K.; Maynard, M.A.; Chapman, S.; Gholam, P.; Blackard, J.T.; Rich, J.; Mayer, K.H.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is being acquired undetected among HIV-infected individuals. A practical way to regularly screen HIV-infected patients for acute HCV irrespective of perceived risk or symptoms is needed. We piloted implementation of an acute HCV screening strategy using routine HIV clinical care schedules and the least costly blood tests, in a Rhode Island HIV care center. Study participants had ongoing HCV risk, completed questionnaires encompassing risk behaviors and perception of risk, and were screened with quarterly alanine aminotransferase (ALT). ALT rise triggered HCV RNA testing, with pooled rather than individual specimen HCV RNA testing for underinsured participants. Participants were primarily older, college-educated men who have sex with men (MSM) with history of sexually transmitted infection other than HIV. One of 58 participants developed acute HCV in 50 person–years of observation for an annual incidence of 2.0% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.05–11.1%). The majority (54%) of MSM did not perceive that traumatic sexual and drug practices they were engaging in put them at risk for HCV. Unprotected sex often occurred under the influence of drugs or alcohol. Self-reported HCV risk and participation in several risk behaviors declined during the study. It was possible to collect frequent ALTs in a busy HIV clinic with 71% of total projected ALTs obtained and 88% of participants having at least one ALT during the 9-month follow-up period. All instances of ALT rise led to reflexive HCV RNA testing. Tracking quarterly ALT for elevation to systematically prompt HCV RNA testing before seroconversion is a promising approach to screen for acute HCV in a real-world HIV clinical setting. PMID:21859307

  3. Bathymetry, stratification, and internal seiche structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fricker, P. D.; Nepf, H. M.

    2000-06-01

    Internal seiches play a significant role in a broad range of physical, chemical, and biological processes in lakes. A detailed assessment of the impact of seiching requires an understanding of seiche structure, which is determined by bathymetry and stratification. In this study, internal seiche solutions are evaluated for arbitrary bathymetry and continuous stratification using a two-dimensional numerical model. Formulated in terms of a stream function, the model produces a finite set of linear internal wave eigenmodes and allows the computation of the complete velocity field (over a grid) associated with each seiche mode. Several idealized configurations of continuous stratification and variable bathymetry are used to explore the effect of nonuniform systems on internal wave structure. In particular, we focus on bed velocity distribution and the resulting potential impact on scalar fluxes, sediment transport, and internal wave damping. Model results are also compared to thermistor chain data collected in the Upper Mystic Lake (UML, Winchester, Massachusetts). Using an idealized description of the UML bathymetry and density profiles which emulate the seasonal variation of stratification in the lake, the evolution of bed velocities during the autumnal breakdown in stratification is assessed, providing insight into the fate of the contaminants entering the lake.

  4. Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

  5. Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Establishing Perchlorate and Goitrogen Risk Mitigation Strategies.

    PubMed

    Crawford-Brown, Douglas

    2015-09-01

    This paper applies probabilistic risk assessment in quantifying risks from cumulative and aggregate risk pathways for selected goitrogens in water and food. Results show that the percentages of individuals with a Hazard Index (HI) value above 1 ranges between 30% and 50% both with and without serum half-life correction when a traditional regulatory assessment approach based on establishment of a No Observed Effects Level (NOEL) is used. When an exposure-response curve is instead used and a threshold of 50% inhibition is assumed, 1.1% or less of the population exceeds an HI value of 1 with no serum half-life correction, rising to as high as 11% when serum half-life correction is applied. If 0% to 5% threshold for iodide uptake inhibition is assumed for production of adverse effects, the percentage of the population with an HI above 1 is 46.2% or less with no serum half-life correction, and 47.2% or less when serum half-life correction is applied. The probabilistic analysis shows that while there are exposed groups for whom perchlorate exposures are the primary cause of individuals having HI values above 1, these constitute significantly less than 1% of the population. Instead, the potential risk from exposure to goitrogens is dominated by nitrates without serum half-life correction and thiocyanates with serum half-life correction, suggesting public health protection is better accomplished by a focus on these and other goitrogens expect in highly limited cases where waterborne perchlorate is at unusually high concentrations. PMID:26322488

  6. Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Establishing Perchlorate and Goitrogen Risk Mitigation Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Crawford-Brown, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    This paper applies probabilistic risk assessment in quantifying risks from cumulative and aggregate risk pathways for selected goitrogens in water and food. Results show that the percentages of individuals with a Hazard Index (HI) value above 1 ranges between 30% and 50% both with and without serum half-life correction when a traditional regulatory assessment approach based on establishment of a No Observed Effects Level (NOEL) is used. When an exposure-response curve is instead used and a threshold of 50% inhibition is assumed, 1.1% or less of the population exceeds an HI value of 1 with no serum half-life correction, rising to as high as 11% when serum half-life correction is applied. If 0% to 5% threshold for iodide uptake inhibition is assumed for production of adverse effects, the percentage of the population with an HI above 1 is 46.2% or less with no serum half-life correction, and 47.2% or less when serum half-life correction is applied. The probabilistic analysis shows that while there are exposed groups for whom perchlorate exposures are the primary cause of individuals having HI values above 1, these constitute significantly less than 1% of the population. Instead, the potential risk from exposure to goitrogens is dominated by nitrates without serum half-life correction and thiocyanates with serum half-life correction, suggesting public health protection is better accomplished by a focus on these and other goitrogens expect in highly limited cases where waterborne perchlorate is at unusually high concentrations. PMID:26322488

  7. Flood risk and adaptation strategies in Indonesia: a probabilistic analysis using globally available data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, global flood losses are increasing due to socio-economic development and climate change, with the largest risk increases in developing countries such as Indonesia. For countries to undertake effective risk-management, an accurate understanding of both current and future risk is required. However, detailed information is rarely available, particularly for developing countries. We present a first of its kind country-scale analysis of flood risk using globally available data that combines a global inundation model with a land use change model and more local data on flood damages. To assess the contribution and uncertainty of different drivers of future risk, we integrate thousands of socio-economic and climate projections in a probabilistic way and include multiple adaptation strategies. Indonesia is used as a case-study as it a country that already faces high flood risk, and is undergoing rapid urbanization. We developed probabilistic and spatially-explicit urban expansion projections from 2000 to 2030 that show that the increase in urban extent ranges from 215% to 357% (5th and 95th percentile). We project rapidly rising flood risk, both for coastal and river floods. This increase is largely driven by economic growth and urban expansion (i.e. increasing exposure). Whilst sea level rise will amply this trend, the response of river floods to climate change is uncertain with the impact of the mean ensemble of 20 climate projections (5 GCMs and 4 RCPs) being close to zero. However, as urban expansion is the main driving force of future risk, we argue that the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly pressing, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Hence, we evaluated the effectiveness of two adaptation measures: spatial planning in flood prone areas and enhanced flood protection. Both strategies have a large potential to effectively offset the increasing risk trend. The risk reduction is in the range of 22-85% and 53

  8. Environmental Strategies for Prevention of Drug Use and Risks in Clubs.

    PubMed

    Miller, Brenda A; Holder, Harold D; Voas, Robert B

    2009-01-01

    Environmental prevention strategies in club settings where music and dance events are featured could provide an important new arena for the prevention of drug use and other risky behaviors (e.g., sexual risk taking, intoxication and drug use, aggression, and driving under the influence). Electronic music dance events (EMDEs) occur in clubs that attract young, emerging adults (18-25 years of age) and attract individuals who engage in various types of drug use. Borrowing from the environmental prevention studies that focus on reducing alcohol use and related problems, a model for drug prevention in the club setting is proposed. Initially, an overview of the relationships between EMDEs and drug use and other risky behaviors are presented. Next, rationales for environmental strategies are provided. Finally, an environmental approach to prevention of drug use and risky behaviors in clubs is described. This comprehensive set of environmental strategies, is designed to be mutually supportive and interactive. Environmental strategies are believed to provide potential for developing an efficacious prevention strategy. The environmental prevention approach presented here is composed of three intervention domains: (1) Mobilization, (2) Strategies for the Exterior Environment, and (3) Strategies for the Interior Environment. PMID:20216925

  9. Environmental Strategies for Prevention of Drug Use and Risks in Clubs

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Brenda A.; Holder, Harold D.; Voas, Robert B.

    2009-01-01

    Environmental prevention strategies in club settings where music and dance events are featured could provide an important new arena for the prevention of drug use and other risky behaviors (e.g., sexual risk taking, intoxication and drug use, aggression, and driving under the influence). Electronic music dance events (EMDEs) occur in clubs that attract young, emerging adults (18–25 years of age) and attract individuals who engage in various types of drug use. Borrowing from the environmental prevention studies that focus on reducing alcohol use and related problems, a model for drug prevention in the club setting is proposed. Initially, an overview of the relationships between EMDEs and drug use and other risky behaviors are presented. Next, rationales for environmental strategies are provided. Finally, an environmental approach to prevention of drug use and risky behaviors in clubs is described. This comprehensive set of environmental strategies, is designed to be mutually supportive and interactive. Environmental strategies are believed to provide potential for developing an efficacious prevention strategy. The environmental prevention approach presented here is composed of three intervention domains: (1) Mobilization, (2) Strategies for the Exterior Environment, and (3) Strategies for the Interior Environment. PMID:20216925

  10. Risk of sudden cardiac death in chronic kidney disease.

    PubMed

    Poulikakos, Dimitrios; Banerjee, Debasish; Malik, Marek

    2014-02-01

    The review discusses the epidemiology and the possible underlying mechanisms of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in chronic kidney disease (CKD), and highlights the unmet clinical need for noninvasive risk stratification strategies in these patients. Although renal dysfunction shares common risk factors and often coexists with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, the presence of renal impairment increases the risk of arrhythmic complications to an extent that cannot be explained by the severity of the atherosclerotic process. Renal impairment is an independent risk factor for SCD from the early stages of CKD; the risk increases as renal function declines and reaches very high levels in patients with end-stage renal disease on dialysis. Autonomic imbalance, uremic cardiomyopathy, and electrolyte disturbances likely play a role in increasing the arrhythmic risk and can be potential targets for treatment. Cardioverter defibrillator treatment could be offered as lifesaving treatment in selected patients, although selection strategies for this treatment mode are presently problematic in dialyzed patients. The review also examines the current experience with risk stratification tools in renal patients and suggests that noninvasive electrophysiological testing during dialysis may be of clinical value as it provides the necessary standardized environment for reproducible measurements for risk stratification purposes. PMID:24256575

  11. Divergent Associations of Antecedent- and Response-Focused Emotion Regulation Strategies with Midlife Cardiovascular Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    Loucks, Eric B.; Buka, Stephen L.; Kubzansky, Laura D.

    2014-01-01

    Background It is not known whether various forms of emotion regulation are differentially related to cardiovascular disease risk. Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess whether antecedent and response-focused emotion regulation would have divergent associations with likelihood of developing cardiovascular disease. Methods Two emotion regulation strategies were examined: reappraisal (antecedent-focused) and suppression (response-focused). Cardiovascular disease risk was assessed with a validated Framingham algorithm that estimates the likelihood of developing CVD in 10 years. Associations were assessed among 373 adults via multiple linear regression. Pathways and gender-specific associations were also considered. Results One standard deviation increases in reappraisal and suppression were associated with 5.9 % lower and 10.0 % higher 10-year cardiovascular disease risk, respectively, in adjusted analyses. Conclusions Divergent associations of antecedent and response-focused emotion regulation with cardiovascular disease risk were observed. Effective emotion regulation may promote cardiovascular health. PMID:24570218

  12. Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L.

    1996-09-01

    This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various {open_quotes}constraint levels{close_quotes} have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the {open_quotes}costs{close_quote} of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria.

  13. Ochratoxins in Feed, a Risk for Animal and Human Health: Control Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Denli, Muzaffer; Perez, Jose F.

    2010-01-01

    Ochratoxin A (OTA) has been shown to be a potent nephrotoxic, hepatotoxic, and teratogenic compound. In farm animals, the intake of feed contaminated with OTA affects animal health and productivity, and may result in the presence of OTA in the animal products. Strategies for the control of OTA in food products require early identification and elimination of contaminated commodities from the food chain. However, current analytical protocols may fail to identify contaminated products, especially in animal feed. The present paper discusses the impact of OTA on human and animal health, with special emphasis on the potential risks of OTA residue in animal products, and control strategies applied in the feed industry. PMID:22069626

  14. Women and the heterosexual transmission of HIV: risks and prevention strategies.

    PubMed

    Gavey, N; McPhillips, K

    1997-01-01

    Heterosexual intercourse has become a significant means of HIV transmission, even in countries where this was previously not the case. Consequently the promotion of safer sexual practices for heterosexual women and men is of major public health importance. We examine the risks to women of contracting HIV through heterosexual sex, and critically discuss the most commonly recommended strategies for safer sex for heterosexuals. We conclude that all safer sex strategies have limitations, and therefore a wide range of options should be promoted. PMID:9278988

  15. Reporting pesticide assessment results to farmworker families: development, implementation, and evaluation of a risk communication strategy.

    PubMed Central

    Quandt, Sara A; Doran, Alicia M; Rao, Pamela; Hoppin, Jane A; Snively, Beverly M; Arcury, Thomas A

    2004-01-01

    The collection of environmental samples presents a responsibility to return information to the affected participants. Explaining complex and often ambiguous scientific information to a lay audience is a challenge. As shown by environmental justice research, this audience frequently has limited formal education, increasing the challenge for researchers to explain the data collected, the risk indicated by the findings, and action the affected community should take. In this study we describe the development and implementation of a risk communication strategy for environmental pesticide samples collected in the homes of Latino/a migrant and seasonal farmworkers in a community-based participatory research project. The communication strategy was developed with community input and was based on face-to-face meetings with members of participating households. Using visual displays of data effectively conveyed information about individual household contamination and placed it in the context of community findings. The lack of national reference data and definitive standards for action necessitated a simplified risk message. We review the strengths and weaknesses of such an approach and suggest areas for future research in risk communication to communities affected by environmental health risks. PMID:15064174

  16. Crime, violence, and behavioral health: collaborative community strategies for risk mitigation.

    PubMed

    Pinals, Debra A

    2015-06-01

    Criminal conduct is not always violent, and violence does not always lead to criminal charges. Moreover, crime and violence have multifaceted etiologies. Most violence in society is not attributable to mental illness. Where there is a small relationship between violence and mental illness, the risk of violence increases for individuals with substance use histories. Underlying trauma can also play a role. Antisocial attitudes, behaviors, and peer groups further increase the risk that individuals, including those with mental illness, will find themselves at risk of criminal recidivism. Criminal histories among public mental health populations, and mental health and substance use disorders among criminal populations are each higher than general population comparisons. Care within behavioral health settings should therefore target decreased criminal recidivism and decreased violence as part of recovery for those individuals at risk, using trauma-informed approaches and peer supports. Interventions that show promise bring criminal justice and behavioral health systems together, and include police-based diversion, specialty courts, court-based alternatives to incarceration, and coordinated re-entry programs. This article reviews these options along with specific risk management strategies, such as using risk, needs, and responsivity factors as a means of improving overall outcomes for persons with mental illness, while minimizing their risk of further criminalization and victimization. PMID:25915735

  17. The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Stahl, Daniel; Borgwardt, Stephan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana O.; Woods, Scott W.; McGlashan, Thomas; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R.; McGuire, Philip

    2016-01-01

    Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk

  18. The Risk-Escalation Model: A Principled Design Strategy for Early-Phase Trials

    PubMed Central

    Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Should first-in-human trials be designed to maximize the prospect of therapeutic benefit for volunteers, prioritize avoidance of unintended harms, or aim for some happy medium between the two? Perennial controversies surrounding initiation and design of early-phase trials hinge on how this question is resolved. In this paper, we build on the premise that the task of early-phase testing is to optimize various components of a potential therapy so that later, confirmatory trials have the maximal probability of informing drug development and clinical care. We then explore three strategies that investigators might use to manage trial risks while optimizing a therapy, using cell therapy for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) as an example. We argue that an iterative application of maximin strategies over successive cohorts and trials, which we call the “risk-escalation model,” establishes a moral principle that should guide decision-making in early-phase trials. PMID:25109092

  19. Strategies for reducing the risk of malpractice litigation in perinatal nursing.

    PubMed

    Koniak-Griffin, D

    1999-01-01

    Perinatal nurses are involved in malpractice litigation most often as employees of a hospital being sued. Contemporary case examples from malpractice claims provide the foundation for examining how perinatal nurses can become the focus of such litigation. Increasing demand for individual nurse accountability, cost containment strategies that require nurses to broaden their scope of practice and to supervise unlicensed assistive personnel, increasing use of medical technologies, and the reality of compromised newborns and unexplained outcomes place perinatal nurses at risk for continued malpractice vulnerability. Specific strategies for risk reduction can be used by the individual nurse and the institution in relation to hospital policies and procedures, application of the nursing process, documentation, birth videos, and delegation of tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel. PMID:10363541

  20. Experimental Analysis of Thermal Stratification in a Heat Storage Tank Using Stratification Pipe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boloņina, A.; Rochas, C.; Blumberga, D.

    2009-01-01

    The heat storage tank is an important element in any heating system where the heat source is not able to provide heat accordingly to consumer demand (for example solar collector systems, solid fuel boilers etc). Better heat storage efficiency can be achieved by providing good thermal stratification in the heat storage tanks. One of the best methods of increasing the degree of thermal stratification is the stratification pipes. In the Environmental monitoring laboratory of the Institute of Energy Systems and Environment (Riga Technical University, an experimental heat storage system has been developed and used for testing and studying stratification devices under different thermodynamic and hydraulic conditions. The experimental study carried out on the efficiency of the stratification pipe produced by German company SOLVIS Solar Systeme GmbH under different flow parameters, has been analyzed. The main aim of the experimental study was to define optimal heating system operation parameters to achieve good performance of the stratification pipe and a high degree of thermal stratification in the heat storage tank.

  1. Risk factors and prevention strategies of non-contact anterior cruciate ligament injuries.

    PubMed

    Laible, Catherine; Sherman, Orrin H

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the number of women playing sports has increased significantly. The passage of Title IX in 1972 had a significant effect in encouraging female participation in sports. This increase in women's sports participation also led to a rise in noncontact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries. As ACL injuries in young female athletes have be- come a public health issue, much research has been done on risk factors and prevention strategies. PMID:25150329

  2. Application of a watershed ecological risk assessment in developing a nitrogen management strategy

    SciTech Connect

    Tyler, P.; Geist, M.; Dow, D.; Clark, H.; Gerritsen, J.

    1995-12-31

    Waquoit Bay is a small estuary on the south shore of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Population in the watershed has increased approximately 1 5 fold in the past 50 years, and residential land use has increased tenfold from 2 percent of the watershed in 1950 to 20 percent in 1990. Of particular concern is nitrogen loading primarily via groundwater from on-site septic systems, fertilizers and atmospheric deposition. Adverse ecological impacts have included: growth of nuisance macroalgae, decreases in water quality, loss of bay scallops and loss of eel grass (Zostera marina) in Waquoit Bay and adjoining coastal ponds. A watershed-based ecological risk assessment was applied to assist in the development of management strategies for the bay. Management goals for the watershed were identified by stakeholders. Endpoints of the risk assessment were derived from the management goals and included: areal extent and patch size of eel grass beds and macroalgal mats, and habitat quality as evidenced by physical, chemical and biological water quality. Ecological response of the endpoints to the nitrogen loading was examined with a regional analysis of eel grass cover, land use, and predicted nitrogen loading in similar embayments of Cape Cod. The uncertainty analysis of the risk assessment allows prediction of the probability of success for a given management strategy; for example, what would be the probability that eel grass would return by reducing the nitrogen load through the implementation of various management strategies. This example shows the utility of the ecological risk assessment approach for developing optimal management strategies to increase the probability of achieving management goals.

  3. A Cross-Cultural Study on Environmental Risk Perception and Educational Strategies: Implications for Environmental Education in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duan, Hongxia; Fortner, Rosanne

    2010-01-01

    This cross-cultural study examined college students' environmental risk perception and their preference in terms of risk communication and educational strategies in China and the United States. The results indicated that the Chinese respondents were more concerned about environmental risk, and they perceived the environmental issues to be more…

  4. Participative management strategy for occupational health, safety and well-being risks.

    PubMed

    Malchaire, J B

    2006-01-01

    The article discusses the principles that underlie a coherent and efficient prevention program for occupational health, safety and well-being: the need of a global approach of these problems not only at the workplace but for the whole of the living conditions at work; a clear understanding of the complementarity between the different partners of this prevention; the role of actor of the workers and therefore the absolute necessity of a participative approach; the real usefulness of measurements and of risk quantification in general; the differences between risk assessment and risk management and the specificities of small and medium size enterprises. On the basis of these principles, the various steps and levels of intervention are defined. The SOBANE prevention strategy is introduced and its 4 levels (Screening, Observation, Analysis and Expertise) are described as well as the consultation guide Déparis for the Screening level. The strategy proved to make it possible to approach the work situations progressively in small as well as in large companies, to coordinate the cooperation between the workers, the technical staff and the occupational health practitioners and to prevent the problems more rapidly, more efficiently and more economically. The paper describes the role of a 'facilitator' to introduce the philosophy and the tools of the SOBANE strategy in the company, to monitor its application and insure the continuity and the efficiency of the participatory approach. PMID:17380950

  5. Reducing disaster risk in rural Arctic communities through effective communication strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kontar, Y. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Communication is the process of exchanging and relaying vital information that has bearing on the effectiveness of all phases of emergency management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery, making it one of the most important activities in disasters. Lack of communication between emergency managers, policy makers, and communities at risk may result in an inability to accurately identify disaster risk, and failure to determine priorities during a hazard event. Specific goals of communication change during the four phases of emergency management. Consequently, the communication strategy changes as well. Communication strategy also depends on a variety of attitudinal and motivational characteristics of the population at risk, as well as socioeconomic, cultural, and geographical features of the disaster-prone region. In May 2013, insufficient communication patterns between federal, state, tribal agencies, and affected communities significantly contributed to delays in the flood response and recovery in several rural villages along the Yukon River in central Alaska. This case study finds that long term dialogue is critical for managing disaster risk and increasing disaster resilience in rural Northern communities. It introduces new ideas and highlights best practices in disaster communication.

  6. Simulating Pelletization Strategies to Reduce the Biomass Supply Risk at America’s Biorefineries

    SciTech Connect

    Jacob J. Jacobson; Shane Carnohan; Andrew Ford; Allyson Beall

    2014-07-01

    Demand for cellulosic ethanol and other advanced biofuels has been on the rise, due in part to federal targets enacted in 2005 and extended in 2007. The industry faces major challenges in meeting these worthwhile and ambitious targets. The challenges are especially severe in the logistics of timely feedstock delivery to biorefineries. Logistical difficulties arise from seasonal production that forces the biomass to be stored in uncontrolled field-side environments. In this storage format physical difficulties arise; transportation is hindered by the low bulk density of baled biomass and the unprotected material can decay leading to unpredictable losses. Additionally, uncertain yields and contractual difficulties can exacerbate these challenges making biorefineries a high-risk venture. Investors’ risk could limit business entry and prevent America from reaching the targets. This paper explores pelletizer strategies to convert the lignocellulosic biomass into a denser form more suitable for storage. The densification of biomass would reduce supply risks, and the new system would outperform conventional biorefinery supply systems. Pelletizer strategies exhibit somewhat higher costs, but the reduction in risk is well worth the extra cost if America is to grow the advanced biofuels industry in a sustainable manner.

  7. Caries management by risk assessment: A review on current strategies for caries prevention and management

    PubMed Central

    Maheswari, S. Uma; Raja, Jacob; Kumar, Arvind; Seelan, R. Gnana

    2015-01-01

    The current trend in treating dental caries is using nondestructive risk-based caries management strategies rather than focusing on the restorative treatment alone. Currently, there have been many changes in understanding of the multifaceted nature of caries process and its management. Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) which is an evidence-based approach focuses on determining many factors causing the expression of disease and take corrective action. The clinicians can ascertain what behaviors are increasing a patient's risk for disease and disease progression by evaluating the current caries risk of a patient. With this modern CAMBRA protocol, a novel treatment plan can be designed to arrest dental caries thereby decreasing the chance of cavitation. After the recognition of the multi factorial nature of caries involving the biofilm, the contemporary approaches focused mainly on the various options to cope with the locally out-of-balance oral biofilm and stop the progression of the disease. The initial caries lesions can be diagnosed with modern diagnostic aids and with the help of CAMBRA, reestablishment of the integrity of the tooth surface early on in the caries process will bring great rewards for patients. This review focuses on the repair of hard tooth tissues using noninvasive strategies. PMID:26538870

  8. Female genital mutilation/cutting: risk management and strategies for social workers and health care professionals.

    PubMed

    Costello, Susan

    2015-01-01

    Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is a traditional practice originating in Africa. Its worst forms cause irreparable harm to girls and women and have no medical justification. Based on a literature review of global responses to FGM/C and conversations with Australian women who migrated from FGM/C practicing countries, this paper provides some background on FGM/C and its epidemiology, outlining its prevalence, types, and health risks and complications for women and girls. It discusses risk-prevention strategies, first, for health practitioners in identifying, screening, and supporting women affected by FGM/C and, second, for welfare and social workers and health care professionals to identify, work with, and prevent girls from being cut. Consistent with international trends in addressing the risks of FGM/C, the paper suggests practice responses for coordinated responses between professionals, communities from practicing countries, and governments of different countries. PMID:26719732

  9. Female genital mutilation/cutting: risk management and strategies for social workers and health care professionals

    PubMed Central

    Costello, Susan

    2015-01-01

    Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is a traditional practice originating in Africa. Its worst forms cause irreparable harm to girls and women and have no medical justification. Based on a literature review of global responses to FGM/C and conversations with Australian women who migrated from FGM/C practicing countries, this paper provides some background on FGM/C and its epidemiology, outlining its prevalence, types, and health risks and complications for women and girls. It discusses risk-prevention strategies, first, for health practitioners in identifying, screening, and supporting women affected by FGM/C and, second, for welfare and social workers and health care professionals to identify, work with, and prevent girls from being cut. Consistent with international trends in addressing the risks of FGM/C, the paper suggests practice responses for coordinated responses between professionals, communities from practicing countries, and governments of different countries. PMID:26719732

  10. Oman India Pipeline: An operational repair strategy based on a rational assessment of risk

    SciTech Connect

    German, P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the development of a repair strategy for the operational phase of the Oman India Pipeline based upon the probability and consequences of a pipeline failure. Risk analyses and cost benefit analyses performed provide guidance on the level of deepwater repair development effort appropriate for the Oman India Pipeline project and identifies critical areas toward which more intense development effort should be directed. The risk analysis results indicate that the likelihood of a failure of the Oman India Pipeline during its 40-year life is low. Furthermore, the probability of operational failure of the pipeline in deepwater regions is extremely low, the major proportion of operational failure risk being associated with the shallow water regions.

  11. Residual flood-risk: assessing the effectiveness of alternative large-scale mitigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio

    2016-04-01

    The EU Flood Directive (2007/60/CE) requires institutions and public bodies, in order to formulate robust flood-risk management strategies for large European rivers, to address several fundamental tasks. For instance, they have to address the problem of flood-risk mitigation from a global perspective (i.e., entire middle-lower river reaches) by identifying critical reaches, inundation areas and corresponding overflow volumes. To this aim, we focus on the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies for the middle-lower reach of the Po river, the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. We refer to the so-called residual flood-risk and in particular to its portion referring to the possibility to experience events associated with larger return periods than the reference one (e.g. ~200 years in our case). In particular, being a further levee heightening not technically viable nor economically conceivable for the case study, the study develops and tests the applicability of a quasi-2D hydraulic model for the identification of large-scale flood-risk mitigation strategies relative to a 500-year flood event. In particular, we consider and model in the study different geometrical configurations of the main embankment system for a ~400km reach stretching from Isola S.Antonio to the Po river delta in the Adriatic Sea: overtopping without levee breaching, overtopping and natural levee breaching, overtopping and forced levee breaching. The simulations enable the assessment of the overflowed volumes and water depths on flooded areas. Expected damages are estimated using simplified graphical tools, which we termed "Vulnerability Hypsometric Curves" (HVCs) and report the extent of the area for a given land use category that is located below a certain elevation. The analysis aims at finding the optimal configuration that minimizes the expected damages in the areas prone to flood. The outcomes of our study indicate that coupling a large

  12. Risk factors, prevention and communication strategy during Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Chua, K B

    2010-12-01

    An outbreak of acute febrile encephalitis affecting pig-farm workers and owners was recognized in peninsular Malaysia as early as September 1998. The outbreak was initially thought to be due to Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus and thus very intensive prevention, control and communication strategies directed at JE virus were undertaken by the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Agriculture of Malaysia. There was an immediate change in the prevention, control and communication strategies with focus and strategies on infected pigs as the source of infections for humans and other animals following the discovery of Nipah virus. Information and understanding the risks of Nipah virus infections and modes of transmission strengthened the directions of prevention, control and communication strategies. A number of epidemiological surveillances and field investigations which were broadly divided into 3 groups covering human health sector, animal health sector and reservoir hosts were carried out as forms of risk assessment to determine and assess the factors and degree of risk of infections by the virus. Data showed that there was significant association between Nipah virus infection and performing activities involving close contact with pigs, such as processing of piglets, administering injection or medication to pigs, assisting in the birth of piglets, assisting in pig breeding, and handling of dead pigs in the affected farms. A complex process of anthropogenic driven deforestation, climatic changes brought on by El Niño-related drought, forest fire and severe haze, and ecological factors of mixed agro-pig farming practices and design of pig-sties led to the spillovers of the virus from its wildlife reservoir into pig population. PMID:21329177

  13. Hospital Strategies for Reducing Risk-Standardized Mortality Rates in Acute Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Bradley, Elizabeth H.; Curry, Leslie A.; Spatz, Erica S.; Herrin, Jeph; Cherlin, Emily J.; Curtis, Jeptha P.; Thompson, Jennifer W.; Ting, Henry H.; Wang, Yongfei; Krumholz, Harlan M.

    2012-01-01

    Background Despite recent improvements in survival after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), U.S. hospitals vary 2-fold in their 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMRs). Nevertheless, information is limited on hospital-level factors that may be associated with RSMRs. Objective To identify hospital strategies that were associated with lower RSMRs. Design Cross-sectional survey of 537 hospitals (91% response rate) and weighted multivariate regression by using data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to determine the associations between hospital strategies and hospital RSMRs. Setting Acute care hospitals with an annualized AMI volume of at least 25 patients. Participants Patients hospitalized with AMI between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2009. Measurements Hospital performance improvement strategies, characteristics, and 30-day RSMRs. Results In multivariate analysis, several hospital strategies were significantly associated with lower RSMRs and in aggregate were associated with clinically important differences in RSMRs. These strategies included holding monthly meetings to review AMI cases between hospital clinicians and staff who transported patients to the hospital (RSMR lower by 0.70 percentage points), having cardiologists always on site (lower by 0.54 percentage points), fostering an organizational environment in which clinicians are encouraged to solve problems creatively (lower by 0.84 percentage points), not cross-training nurses from intensive care units for the cardiac catheterization laboratory (lower by 0.44 percentage points), and having physician and nurse champions rather than nurse champions alone (lower by 0.88 percentage points). Fewer than 10% of hospitals reported using at least 4 of these 5 strategies. Limitation The cross-sectional design demonstrates statistical associations but cannot establish causal relationships. Conclusion Several strategies, which are currently implemented by relatively few hospitals, are

  14. Risk- and response-adapted strategies for the management of Hodgkin lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Remer, Marcus; Johnson, Peter W M

    2015-03-01

    Therapy for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is associated with excellent long-term survival rates, of 80% of more. Extended follow up has described late treatment-related toxicities, principally secondary malignancies, cardiovascular disease and infertility. Given the young age of many patients, there is a desire to offer a more personalised approach, correlated to individual tumour biology that enables treatment de-escalation in low risk patients to reduce toxicity, and treatment intensification in high risk patients to reduce treatment failure. Contemporary therapeutic strategies have involved risk assessment based on staging and clinical factors. The use of functional imaging with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG-PET) as a predictive tool to identify early non-responders has been well validated and outperforms the risk stratifying International Prognostic Score (IPS). HL has particularly high FDG-avidity (97-100%), with FDG-PET scanning reflecting metabolic activity and acting as a surrogate biomarker for chemosensitivity. International consensus on the methods of reporting and interpreting FDG-PET scans has enabled their use to be standardised and reproducible. Given that primary therapy fails for 15-20% of patients, the use of combined FDG-PET and computerised tomography (FDG-PET/CT) to provide a response-adapted strategy to guide management is under investigation in numerous prospective clinical trials. They aim to determine whether early response scanning can be used to directly modulate subsequent therapy, through intensifying or abbreviating chemotherapy regimens and/or omitting radiotherapy. Integrated multi-modality imaging and advanced conformal planning techniques have led to the emergence of radiotherapy strategies such as involved-node radiation (INRT) that aim to optimise treatment volumes and maintain efficacy whilst lowering toxicity. Study groups have incorporated these modalities in trial designs to assess whether a PET

  15. Coping strategies as psychological risk factor for antenatal anxiety, worries, and depression among Greek women.

    PubMed

    Gourounti, Kleanthi; Anagnostopoulos, Fotios; Lykeridou, Katerina

    2013-10-01

    A range of psychosocial, medical, and demographic variables may influence pregnant women's psychological status. However the association between coping strategies, anxiety, worries, and depression during pregnancy is a relatively neglected area of research. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between coping strategies, antenatal anxiety, pregnancy worries, and depressive symptomatology after controlling for the effects of background variables. The study sample consisted of 163 pregnant women, with gestational age ranging from 11 to 26 weeks, attending antenatal screening at a Greek public hospital. Coping strategies were measured with Brief COPE, pregnancy worries were measured with Cambridge Worry Scale (CWS), anxiety was assessed using State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-X version), and depression was measured with Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale (CES-D). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated among all study variables, followed by hierarchical multiple linear regression. In the univariate analysis, low annual income, unemployment, conception after an IVF treatment, and a previous history of miscarriage were associated with anxiety, depression, and worries. Additionally, almost all coping strategies (denial, behavioral disengagement, self-blame, self-distraction, substance use, acceptance, positive reframing, active coping, and seeking emotional support) were significantly associated with antenatal anxiety, worries, and depression. Linear regression analysis showed that only previous history of miscarriage, conception after IVF, as well as denial, behavioral disengagement and acceptance coping strategies were significantly related to anxiety, worries and depressive symptomatology. The risk factors found in this study could help clinicians target anxiety and depression screening to high-risk populations of pregnant women. Provision of adequate training for obstetricians and midwives in the detection and

  16. Accuracy of heritability estimations in presence of hidden population stratification.

    PubMed

    Dandine-Roulland, Claire; Bellenguez, Céline; Debette, Stéphanie; Amouyel, Philippe; Génin, Emmanuelle; Perdry, Hervé

    2016-01-01

    The heritability of a trait is the proportion of its variance explained by genetic factors; it has historically been estimated using familial data. However, new methods have appeared for estimating heritabilities using genomewide data from unrelated individuals. A drawback of this strategy is that population stratification can bias the estimates. Indeed, an environmental factor associated with the phenotype may differ among population subgroups. This factor being associated both with the phenotype and the genetic variation in the population would be a confounder. A common solution consists in adjusting on the first Principal Components (PCs) of the genomic data. We study this procedure on simulated data and on 6000 individuals from the Three-City Study. We analyse the geographical coordinates of the birth cities, which are not genetically determined, but the heritability of which should be overestimated due to population stratification. We also analyse various anthropometric traits. The procedure fails to correct the bias in geographical coordinates heritability estimates. The heritability estimates of the anthropometric traits are affected by the inclusion of the first PC, but not by the following PCs, contrarily to geographical coordinates. We recommend to be cautious with heritability estimates obtained from a large population. PMID:27220488

  17. Accuracy of heritability estimations in presence of hidden population stratification

    PubMed Central

    Dandine-Roulland, Claire; Bellenguez, Céline; Debette, Stéphanie; Amouyel, Philippe; Génin, Emmanuelle; Perdry, Hervé

    2016-01-01

    The heritability of a trait is the proportion of its variance explained by genetic factors; it has historically been estimated using familial data. However, new methods have appeared for estimating heritabilities using genomewide data from unrelated individuals. A drawback of this strategy is that population stratification can bias the estimates. Indeed, an environmental factor associated with the phenotype may differ among population subgroups. This factor being associated both with the phenotype and the genetic variation in the population would be a confounder. A common solution consists in adjusting on the first Principal Components (PCs) of the genomic data. We study this procedure on simulated data and on 6000 individuals from the Three-City Study. We analyse the geographical coordinates of the birth cities, which are not genetically determined, but the heritability of which should be overestimated due to population stratification. We also analyse various anthropometric traits. The procedure fails to correct the bias in geographical coordinates heritability estimates. The heritability estimates of the anthropometric traits are affected by the inclusion of the first PC, but not by the following PCs, contrarily to geographical coordinates. We recommend to be cautious with heritability estimates obtained from a large population. PMID:27220488

  18. Risk mitigation strategies for viral contamination of biotechnology products: consideration of best practices.

    PubMed

    Rosenberg, Amy S; Cherney, Barry; Brorson, Kurt; Clouse, Kathleen; Kozlowski, Steven; Hughes, Patricia; Friedman, Rick

    2011-01-01

    CONFERENCE PROCEEDING Proceedings of the PDA/FDA Adventitious Viruses in Biologics: Detection and Mitigation Strategies Workshop in Bethesda, MD, USA; December 1-3, 2010 Guest Editors: Arifa Khan (Bethesda, MD), Patricia Hughes (Bethesda, MD) and Michael Wiebe (San Francisco, CA) Viral contamination of biotech product facilities is a potentially devastating manufacturing risk and, unfortunately, is more common than is generally reported or previously appreciated. Although viral contaminants of biotech products are thought to originate principally from biological raw materials, all potential process risks merit evaluation. Limitations to existing methods for virus detection are becoming evident as emerging viruses have contaminated facilities and disrupted supplies of critical products. New technologies, such as broad-based polymerase chain reaction screens for multiple virus types, are increasingly becoming available to detect adventitious viral contamination and thus, mitigate risks to biotech products and processes. Further, the industry embrace of quality risk management that promotes improvements in testing stratagems, enhanced viral inactivation methods for raw materials, implementation and standardization of robust viral clearance procedures, and efforts to learn from both epidemiologic screening of raw material sources and from the experience of other manufacturers with regard to this problem will serve to enhance the safety of biotech products available to patients. Based on this evolving landscape, we propose a set of principles for manufacturers of biotech products: Pillars of Risk Mitigation for Viral Contamination of Biotech Products. PMID:22294578

  19. Paths to Alzheimer's disease prevention: from modifiable risk factors to biomarker enrichment strategies.

    PubMed

    Lista, S; Dubois, B; Hampel, H

    2015-02-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) represents an increasing worldwide healthcare epidemic. Secondary preventive disease-modifying treatments under clinical development are considered most effective when initiated as early as possible in the pathophysiological course and progression of the disease. Major targets are to enhance clearance and to reduce cerebral accumulation of amyloid, decrease hyperphosphorylation of tau and the generation of neurofibrillary tangles, reduce inflammation, and finally progressive neurodegeneration. Comprehensive sets of biological markers are needed to characterize the pathophysiological mechanisms, indicate effects of treatment and to facilitate early characterisation and detection of AD during the prodromal or even at asymptomatic stages. No primary or secondary preventive treatments for AD have been approved. Epidemiological research, however, has provided evidence of specifically modifiable risk and protective factors. Among them are vascular, lifestyle and psychological risk factors that may act both independently and by potentiating each other. These factors may be substantially impacted by single or multi-domain strategies to prevent or postpone the onset of AD-related pathophysiology. Researchers have recently started the European Dementia Prevention Initiative (EDPI), an international consortium to improve strategies for preventing dementia. EDPI, in particular, includes the Finnish Geriatric Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability (FINGER) which aims at optimizing the early identification of subjects at increased risk of late-life cognitive deterioration, and at the evaluation of multi-domain intervention strategies. The ongoing discussion on new diagnostic criteria provided by the International Working Group (IWG), as well as by the recommendations summoned by the National Institute on Aging and Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) initiative, has inspired the creation of novel study designs and the definition of

  20. Nursing Strategies to Support Family Members of ICU Patients at High Risk of Dying

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Judith A.; Anderson, Ruth A.; Docherty, Sharron L.; Tulsky, James A.; Steinhauser, Karen E.; Bailey, Donald E.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To explore how family members of ICU patients at high risk of dying respond to nursing communication strategies. Background: Family members of ICU patients may face difficult decisions. Nurses are in a position to provide support. Evidence of specific strategies that nurses use to support decision-making and how family members respond to these strategies is lacking. Methods: This is a prospective, qualitative descriptive study involving the family members of ICU patients identified as being at high risk of dying. Results: Family members described five nursing approaches: Demonstrating concern, building rapport, demonstrating professionalism, providing factual information, and supporting decision-making. This study provides evidence that when using these approaches, nurses helped family members to cope; to have hope, confidence, and trust; to prepare for and accept impending death; and to make decisions. Conclusion: Knowledge lays a foundation for interventions targeting the areas important to family members and most likely to improve their ability to make decisions and their well-being. PMID:24655938

  1. Fatigue risk management by volunteer fire-fighters: Use of informal strategies to augment formal policy.

    PubMed

    Dawson, Drew; Mayger, Katherine; Thomas, Matthew J W; Thompson, Kirrilly

    2015-11-01

    An increasing number and intensity of catastrophic fire events in Australia has led to increasing demands on a mainly volunteer fire-fighting workforce. Despite the increasing likelihood of fatigue in the emergency services environment, there is not yet a systematic, unified approach to fatigue management in fire agencies across Australia. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify informal strategies used in volunteer fire-fighting and examine how these strategies are transmitted across the workforce. Thirty experienced Australian volunteer fire-fighters were interviewed in August 2010. The study identified informal fatigue-management behaviours at the individual, team and brigade level that have evolved in fire-fighting environments and are regularly implemented. However, their purpose was not explicitly recognized as such. This apparent paradox - that fatigue proofing behaviours exist but that they are not openly understood as such - may well resolve a potential conflict between a culture of indefatigability in the emergency services sector and the frequent need to operate safely while fatigued. However, formal controls require fire-fighters and their organisations to acknowledge and accept their vulnerability. This suggests two important areas in which to improve formal fatigue risk management in the emergency services sector: (1) identifying and formalising tacit or informal fatigue coping strategies as legitimate elements of the fatigue risk management system; and (2) developing culturally appropriate techniques for systematically communicating fatigue levels to self and others. PMID:26322733

  2. Effect of sample stratification on dairy GWAS results

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background Artificial insemination and genetic selection are major factors contributing to population stratification in dairy cattle. In this study, we analyzed the effect of sample stratification and the effect of stratification correction on results of a dairy genome-wide association study (GWAS)....

  3. A Comparative Review of Stratification Texts and Readers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peoples, Clayton D.

    2012-01-01

    Social stratification is a core substantive area within sociology. There are a number of textbooks and readers available on the market that deal with this central topic. In this article, I conduct a comparative review of (a) four stratification textbooks and (b) four stratification readers. (Contains 2 tables.)

  4. Risk stratification and stroke prevention therapy care gaps in Canadian atrial fibrillation patients (from the Co-ordinated National Network to Engage Physicians in the Care and Treatment of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation chart audit).

    PubMed

    Patel, Ashish D; Tan, Mary K; Angaran, Paul; Bell, Alan D; Berall, Murray; Bucci, Claudia; Demchuk, Andrew M; Essebag, Vidal; Goldin, Lianne; Green, Martin S; Gregoire, Jean C; Gross, Peter L; Heilbron, Brett; Lin, Peter J; Ramanathan, Krishnan; Skanes, Allan; Wheeler, Bruce H; Goodman, Shaun G

    2015-03-01

    The objectives of this national chart audit (January to June 2013) of 6,346 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF; ≥18 years without a significant heart valve disorder) from 647 primary care physicians were to (1) describe the frequency of stroke and bleed risk assessments in patients with nonvalvular AF by primary care physicians, including the accuracy of these assessments relative to established predictive indexes; (2) outline contemporary methods of anticoagulation used; and (3) report the time in the therapeutic range among patients prescribed warfarin. An annual stroke risk assessment was not undertaken in 15% and estimated without a formal risk tool in 33%; agreement with CHADS2 score estimation was seen in 87% of patients. Major bleeding risk assessment was not undertaken in 25% and estimated without a formal risk tool in 47%; agreement with HAS-BLED score estimation was observed in 64% with physician overestimation in 26% of patients. Antithrombotic therapy included warfarin (58%), dabigatran (22%), rivaroxaban (14%), and apixaban (<1%). Among warfarin-treated patients, the median international normalized ratio was 2.4 and time in therapeutic range (TTR) was 73%; however, the TTR was <50% in 845 (25%), 50% to 69% in 674 (20%), and ≥70% in 1,827 (55%) patients. In conclusion, we describe a contemporary real-world elderly population with AF at important risk for stroke. There is apparent overestimation of bleeding risk in many patients. Warfarin was the dominant stroke prevention treatment; however, the suggested TTR target was achieved in only 55% of these patients. PMID:25727083

  5. Using estimated risk to develop stimulation strategies for induced seismicity in enhanced geothermal systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douglas, John; Aochi, Hideo

    2014-05-01

    Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are an attractive source of low-carbon electricity and heating. Consequently, a number of tests of this technology have been made during the past couple of decades and various projects are being planned or under development. EGS work by the injection of fluid into deep boreholes to increase permeability and hence allow the circulation and heating of fluid through a geothermal reservoir. Permeability is irreversibly increased by the shearing of pre-existing factures or fault segments, and hence by the generation of microseismicity. One aspect of this technology that can cause public concern and consequently could limit the widespread adoption of EGS within populated areas is the risk of generating earthquakes that are sufficiently large to be felt (or even to cause building damage). Therefore, there is a need to balance stimulation and exploitation of the geothermal reservoir by injecting fluids against the pressing requirement to keep the earthquake risk below an acceptable level. Current strategies to balance these potentially conflicting requirements rely on a traffic light system based on the observed magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes and the measured peak ground velocities from these events. Douglas and Aochi (Pageoph, 2014) propose an alternative system that uses the actual risk of generating felt (or damaging) earthquake ground motions at a site of interest (e.g. a nearby town) to control the injection rate. This risk is computed by combining characteristics of the observed seismicity rate of the previous six hours, with a (potentially site-specific) ground-motion prediction equation to obtain a real-time seismic hazard curve, and then the convolution of this with the derivative of a (potentially site-specific) fragility curve. Based on the relation between computed risk and pre-defined acceptable risk thresholds the injection is: increased (if the risk is below the amber level), decreased (if the risk is between amber

  6. Using Estimated Risk to Develop Stimulation Strategies for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douglas, John; Aochi, Hideo

    2014-08-01

    Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are an attractive source of low-carbon electricity and heating. Consequently, a number of tests of this technology have been made during the past couple of decades, and various projects are being planned or under development. EGS work by the injection of fluid into deep boreholes to increase permeability and hence allow the circulation and heating of fluid through a geothermal reservoir. Permeability is irreversibly increased by the generation of microseismicity through the shearing of pre-existing fractures or fault segments. One aspect of this technology that can cause public concern and consequently could limit the widespread adoption of EGS within populated areas is the risk of generating earthquakes that are sufficiently large to be felt (or even to cause building damage). Therefore, there is a need to balance stimulation and exploitation of the geothermal reservoir through fluid injection against the pressing requirement to keep the earthquake risk below an acceptable level. Current strategies to balance these potentially conflicting requirements rely on a traffic light system based on the observed magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes and the measured peak ground velocities from these events. In this article we propose an alternative system that uses the actual risk of generating felt (or damaging) earthquake ground motions at a site of interest (e.g. a nearby town) to control the injection rate. This risk is computed by combining characteristics of the observed seismicity of the previous 6 h with a (potentially site-specific) ground motion prediction equation to obtain a real-time seismic hazard curve; this is then convolved with the derivative of a (potentially site-specific) fragility curve. Based on the relation between computed risk and pre-defined acceptable risk thresholds, the injection is increased if the risk is below the amber level, decreased if the risk is between the amber and red levels, or stopped

  7. Quantitative approach of risk management strategies for hepatitis a virus-contaminated oyster production areas.

    PubMed

    Thebault, A; Le Saux, J-C; Pommepuy, M; Le Guyader, S; Lailler, R; Denis, J-B

    2012-07-01

    It is not yet known whether using the new molecular tools to monitor hepatitis A virus (HAV) in shellfish production areas could be useful for improving food safety. HAV contamination can be acute in coastal areas, such as Brittany, France, where outbreaks of hepatitis A have already occurred and have been linked to the consumption of raw shellfish. A quantitative probabilistic approach was carried out to estimate the mean annual risk of hepatitis A in an adult population of raw oyster consumers. Two hypothetical scenarios of contamination were considered, the first for a rare and brief event and the second for regular and prolonged episodes of contamination. Fourteen monitoring and management strategies were simulated. Their effects were assessed by the relative risk reduction in mean annual risk. The duration of closure after abnormal detection in the shellfish area was also considered. Among the strategies tested, results show that monthly molecular reverse transcription PCR monitoring of HAV is more useful than bacterial surveys. In terms of management measures, early closure of the shellfish area without waiting for confirmatory analysis was shown to be the most efficient strategy. When contamination is very short-lived and homogeneous in the shellfish production area, waiting for three negative results before reopening the area for harvest is time wasting. When contamination is not well identified or if contamination is heterogeneous, it can be harmful not to wait for three negative results. In addition, any preventive measures, such as improving sewage treatment or producing shellfish in safer areas, that can reduce contamination by at least 2 log units are more efficient and less costly. Finally we show that controlling and managing transferred shellfish are useful and can play an important role in preventing cases. Qualitative results from HAV monitoring can advantageously supplement other measures that improve the safety of shellfish products in exposed

  8. Shared risk evaluation mitigation strategy for all immediate-release transmucosal fentanyl dosage forms.

    PubMed

    2012-06-01

    The Food and Drug Administration approved a single shared Risk Evaluation Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for transmucosal immediate-release fentanyl dosage forms in December 2011. This report describes the goals, elements, and restricted distribution system of the REMS designed to reduce risk of abuse, misuse, addiction, and overdose with the drugs. Questions and answers about REMS also are presented. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a shared REMS for all immediate-release transmucosal fentanyl dosage forms on December 29, 2011, to become effective in March 2012. That announcement is accessible at: http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm285345.htm. Concurrently the FDA posted a series of questions and answers on this shared REMS at: http://http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/InformationbyDrugClass/ucm284717.htm. Both documents are in the public domain. PMID:22764848

  9. Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Dyslipidemia, Risk for Cardiovascular Complications, and Treatment Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Qing-Qing; Lu, Lun-Gen

    2015-01-01

    Studies have shown that nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is strongly associated with several metabolic disorders and diseases, such as obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia. In NAFLD, dyslipidemia is manifested as increased serum triglyceride and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, all of which are key risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD is a leading cause of mortality in NAFLD patients. Thus, implementation of an aggressive therapeutic strategy for dyslipidemia with hypolipidemic agents may mitigate the risk for CVD among NAFLD patients. Here, we provide a current review of literature regarding NAFLD, with particular emphasis on dyslipidemia and available treatment options. PMID:26357637

  10. Urban geochemistry: research strategies to assist risk assessment and remediation of brownfield sites in urban areas.

    PubMed

    Thornton, I; Farago, M E; Thums, C R; Parrish, R R; McGill, R A R; Breward, N; Fortey, N J; Simpson, P; Young, S D; Tye, A M; Crout, N M J; Hough, R L; Watt, J

    2008-12-01

    Urban geochemical maps of Wolverhampton and Nottingham, based on multielement analysis of surface soils, have shown distribution patterns of "total" metals concentrations relating to past and present industrial and domestic land use and transport systems. Several methods have been used to estimate the solubility and potential bioavailability of metals, their mineral forms and potential risks to urban population groups. These include sequential chemical extraction, soil pore water extraction and analysis, mineralogical analysis by scanning electron microscopy, source apportionment by lead isotope analysis and the development of models to predict metal uptake by homegrown vegetables to provide an estimate of risk from metal consumption and exposure. The results from these research strategies have been integrated with a geographical information system (GIS) to provide data for future land-use planning. PMID:18584292

  11. [New strategies for assessing the risk of sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy].

    PubMed

    Jaworski, Krzysztof; Możeńska, Olga; Kosior, Dariusz A

    2016-07-01

    Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is characterized by a primarily increased ventricular wall thickness, usually caused by the mutations in genes encoding sarcomere proteins. Thanks to the growing awareness in the medical community as well as advances in diagnostic techniques HCM can be diagnosed at earlier stages than ever before. However, in some cases the first symptom of this disease is a sudden cardiac death (SCD) and diagnosis remains unknown until post-mortem examination. Implantation of a cardioverterdefibrillator (ICD) provides the most effective method of SCD prevention. Nevertheless, due to a number of risks associated with surgery as well as the possession of such devices, predictive factors of serious ventricular arrhythmia in individual patients have been sought for many years. The aim of this review is to present the current strategies of risk assessment and prevention of SCD in patients with HCM. PMID:27590646

  12. [New strategies for assessing the risk of sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy].

    PubMed

    Jaworski, Krzysztof; Możeńska, Olga; Kosior, Dariusz A

    2016-08-01

    Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is characterized by a primarily increased ventricular wall thickness, usually caused by the mutations in genes encoding sarcomere proteins. Thanks to the growing awareness in the medical community as well as advances in diagnostic techniques HCM can be diagnosed at earlier stages than ever before. However, in some cases the first symptom of this disease is a sudden cardiac death (SCD) and diagnosis remains unknown until post-mortem examination. Implantation of a cardioverterdefibrillator (ICD) provides the most effective method of SCD prevention. Nevertheless, due to a number of risks associated with surgery as well as the possession of such devices, predictive factors of serious ventricular arrhythmia in individual patients have been sought for many years. The aim of this review is to present the current strategies of risk assessment and prevention of SCD in patients with HCM. PMID:27591441

  13. New strategy toward dioxin risk reduction for local residents surrounding severe dioxin hotspots in Vietnam

    PubMed Central

    Thi Tran, Tuyet-Hanh; Nguyen, Ngoc-Bich; Le, Vu-Anh

    2013-01-01

    Background A public health intervention program with active involvement of local related stakeholders was piloted in the Bien Hoa dioxin hotspot (2007–2009), and then expanded to the Da Nang dioxin hotspot in Vietnam (2009–2011). It aimed to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure of local residents through foods. This article presents the results of the intervention in Da Nang. Methodology To assess the results of this intervention program, pre- and post-intervention knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) surveys were implemented in 400 households, randomly selected from four wards surrounding the Da Nang Airbase in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Results After the intervention, the knowledge on the existence of dioxin in food, dioxin exposure pathways, potential high-risk foods, and preventive measures significantly increased (P<0.05). Ninety-eight percent were willing to follow advice on preventing dioxin exposure. Practices to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure also significantly improved (P<0.05). After intervention, 60.4% of households undertook exposure preventive measures, significantly higher than that of the pre-intervention survey (39.6%; χ2=40.15, P<0.001). High-risk foods had quite low rates of daily consumption (from 0 to 2.5%) and were significantly reduced (P<0.05). Conclusions This is seen as an effective intervention strategy toward reducing the risk of human exposure to dioxin at dioxin hotspots. While greater efforts are needed for remediating dioxin-polluted areas inside airbases, there is also evidence to suggest that, during the past four decades, pollution has expanded to the surrounding areas. For this reason, this model should be quickly expanded to the remaining dioxin hotspots in Vietnam to further reduce the exposure risks in other areas. PMID:23791241

  14. Pharmacological strategies to reduce exacerbation risk in COPD: a narrative review.

    PubMed

    Miravitlles, Marc; D'Urzo, Anthony; Singh, Dave; Koblizek, Vladimir

    2016-01-01

    Identifying patients at risk of exacerbations and managing them appropriately to reduce this risk represents an important clinical challenge. Numerous treatments have been assessed for the prevention of exacerbations and their efficacy may differ by patient phenotype. Given their centrality in the treatment of COPD, there is strong rationale for maximizing bronchodilation as an initial strategy to reduce exacerbation risk irrespective of patient phenotype. Therefore, in patients assessed as frequent exacerbators (>1 exacerbation/year) we propose initial bronchodilator treatment with a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)/ long-acting β2-agonist (LABA). For those patients who continue to experience >1 exacerbation/year despite maximal bronchodilation, we advocate treating according to patient phenotype. Based on currently available data on adding inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) to a LABA, ICS might be added to a LABA/LAMA combination in exacerbating patients who have an asthma-COPD overlap syndrome or high blood eosinophil counts, while in exacerbators with chronic bronchitis, consideration should be given to treating with a phosphodiesterase (PDE)-4 inhibitor (roflumilast) or high-dose mucolytic agents. For those patients who experience frequent bacterial exacerbations and/or bronchiectasis, addition of mucolytic agents or a macrolide antibiotic (e.g. azithromycin) should be considered. In all patients at risk of exacerbations, pulmonary rehabilitation should be included as part of a comprehensive management plan. PMID:27613392

  15. Colorectal cancer screening in the familial risk population: Is colonoscopy still the strategy of choice?

    PubMed

    Gimeno-García, Antonio Z; Hernández-Álvarez-de-Buylla, Noemi; Nicolás-Pérez, David; Carrillo, Marta; Hernández, Goretti; Quintero, Enrique

    2016-05-01

    First-degree relatives of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) are at high risk of this disease. For this reason, medical organizations and clinical guidelines recommend more intensive screening and surveillance for such first-degree relatives than for the average-risk population. Colonoscopy has been the cornerstone of CRC screening in this setting. Although colonoscopy is the most sensitive technique for the detection of neoplastic lesions (especially non-advanced adenomas), its role is less clear for CRC. In addition, screening colonoscopy has several limitations that may affect the success of a screening campaign, such as poor participant acceptance, the need for skilled endoscopists, participant access to screening colonoscopy, overburdened endoscopy units, potential complications, and procedure-related costs. In addition, recent evidence has cast doubt on the advantage of colonoscopy over other strategies for the detection of advanced neoplastic lesions. Despite being less sensitive in general, other screening methods frequently recommended in the average-risk population may be more acceptable and thus help increase CRC screening uptake. This review discusses recent evidence on the risk of CRC in first-degree relatives, the advantages and disadvantages of each screening technique, participation rates depending on the technique, patient preferences, and barriers to screening. PMID:26547615

  16. Drainage and Stratification Kinetics of Foam Films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yiran; Sharma, Vivek

    2014-03-01

    Baking bread, brewing cappuccino, pouring beer, washing dishes, shaving, shampooing, whipping eggs and blowing bubbles all involve creation of aqueous foam films. Foam lifetime, drainage kinetics and stability are strongly influenced by surfactant type (ionic vs non-ionic), and added proteins, particles or polymers modify typical responses. The rate at which fluid drains out from a foam film, i.e. drainage kinetics, is determined in the last stages primarily by molecular interactions and capillarity. Interestingly, for certain low molecular weight surfactants, colloids and polyelectrolyte-surfactant mixtures, a layered ordering of molecules, micelles or particles inside the foam films leads to a stepwise thinning phenomena called stratification. Though stratification is observed in many confined systems including foam films containing particles or polyelectrolytes, films containing globular proteins seem not to show this behavior. Using a Scheludko-type cell, we experimentally study the drainage and stratification kinetics of horizontal foam films formed by protein-surfactant mixtures, and carefully determine how the presence of proteins influences the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of foam films.

  17. Temperature Stratification in a Cryogenic Fuel Tank

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew John; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Boschee, Jacob; Foygel, Michael Gregory

    2013-01-01

    A reduced dynamical model describing temperature stratification effects driven by natural convection in a liquid hydrogen cryogenic fuel tank has been developed. It accounts for cryogenic propellant loading, storage, and unloading in the conditions of normal, increased, and micro- gravity. The model involves multiple horizontal control volumes in both liquid and ullage spaces. Temperature and velocity boundary layers at the tank walls are taken into account by using correlation relations. Heat exchange involving the tank wall is considered by means of the lumped-parameter method. By employing basic conservation laws, the model takes into consideration the major multi-phase mass and energy exchange processes involved, such as condensation-evaporation of the hydrogen, as well as flows of hydrogen liquid and vapor in the presence of pressurizing helium gas. The model involves a liquid hydrogen feed line and a tank ullage vent valve for pressure control. The temperature stratification effects are investigated, including in the presence of vent valve oscillations. A simulation of temperature stratification effects in a generic cryogenic tank has been implemented in Matlab and results are presented for various tank conditions.

  18. Salt, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk: what is the most adequate preventive strategy? A Swiss perspective

    PubMed Central

    Burnier, Michel; Wuerzner, Gregoire; Bochud, Murielle

    2015-01-01

    Among the various strategies to reduce the incidence of non-communicable diseases reduction of sodium intake in the general population has been recognized as one of the most cost-effective means because of its potential impact on the development of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. Yet, this strategic health recommendation of the WHO and many other international organizations is far from being universally accepted. Indeed, there are still several unresolved scientific and epidemiological questions that maintain an ongoing debate. Thus what is the adequate low level of sodium intake to recommend to the general population and whether national strategies should be oriented to the overall population or only to higher risk fractions of the population such as salt-sensitive patients are still discussed. In this paper, we shall review the recent results of the literature regarding salt, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk and we present the recommendations recently proposed by a group of experts of Switzerland. The propositions of the participating medical societies are to encourage national health authorities to continue their discussion with the food industry in order to reduce the sodium intake of food products with a target of mean salt intake of 5–6 grams per day in the population. Moreover, all initiatives to increase the information on the effect of salt on health and on the salt content of food are supported. PMID:26321959

  19. Quantifying the risk from ovine BSE and the impact of control strategies.

    PubMed

    Fryer, Helen R; Baylis, Matthew; Sivam, Kumar; McLean, Angela R

    2007-06-22

    Although no naturally infected sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has ever been discovered, it remains possible that BSE once infected the UK sheep population, has been transmitted between sheep, and is still present today. We constructed a mathematical model to assess the current maximum theoretical exposure to consumers from BSE-infected ovine material and to estimate the risk reduction that could be achieved by abattoir-based control options if BSE-infected sheep were ever found in the national flock. We predict that, if present, the exposure to consumers from a single BSE-infected sheep would be high: one sheep, close to the end of its incubation period, is likely to contribute 10-1000 times more infectious material than a fully infectious cow. Furthermore, 30% of this exposure comes from infectivity residing in lymphatic and peripheral tissue that cannot be completely removed from a carcass. We are 95% confident that throughout Great Britain, no more than four sheep flocks currently harbour an ongoing BSE epidemic. However, since the exposure from a single infected sheep is high, the annual human exposure from four 'typical' BSE-infected flocks could be considerable. Small reductions in exposure could be achieved by strategies based on tissue testing, a 12-month age restriction or expanded definitions of high-risk tissues. A six-month age restriction is likely to be more effective and genotype-based strategies the most effective. PMID:17412681

  20. Risk-Reduction Strategies to Expand Radon Care Planning with Vulnerable Groups

    PubMed Central

    Larsson, Laura S.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in the United States and the leading cause of lung cancer among nonsmokers. Residential radon is the cause of approximately 21,000 U.S. lung cancer deaths each year. Dangerous levels of radon are just as likely to be found in low-rise apartments and townhomes as single-family homes in the same area. The preferred radon mitigation strategy can be expensive and requires structural modifications to the home. The public health nurse (PHN) needs a collection of low-cost alternatives when working with low-income families or families who rent their homes. Method A review of the literature was performed to identify evidence-based methods to reduce radon risk with vulnerable populations. Results Fourteen recommendations for radon risk reduction were categorized into four strategies. Nine additional activities for raising awareness and increasing testing were also included. Discussion The results pair the PHN with practical interventions and the underlying rationale to develop radon careplans with vulnerable families across housing types. The PHN has both the competence and the access to help families reduce their exposure to this potent carcinogen. PMID:24547763

  1. Significant factors of aviation insurance and risk management strategy: an empirical study of Taiwanese airline carriers.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yi Hsin; Chang, Yu Hern

    2008-04-01

    Aviation insurance premiums have become a heavy burden for the airline industry since September 11, 2001. Although the industry must constantly balance its operations between profitability and safety, the reality is that airlines are in the business of making money. Therefore, their ability to reduce cost and manage risk is a key factor for success. Unlike past research, which used subjective judgment methods, this study applied quantitative historical data (1999-2000) and gray relation analysis to identify the primary factors influencing ratemaking for aviation insurance premiums. An empirical study of six airlines in Taiwan was conducted to determine these factors and to analyze the management strategies used to deal with them. Results showed that the loss experience and performance of individual airlines were the key elements associated with aviation insurance premiums paid by each airline. By identifying and understanding the primary factors influencing ratemaking for aviation insurance, airlines will better understand their relative operational strengths and weaknesses, and further help top management identify areas for further improvement. Knowledge of these factors combined with effective risk management strategies, may result in lower premiums and operating costs for airline companies. PMID:18419661

  2. Sexual risk-reduction strategies among HIV-infected men receiving ART in Kibera, Nairobi.

    PubMed

    Ragnarsson, Anders; Thorson, Anna; Dover, Paul; Carter, Jane; Ilako, Festus; Indalo, Dorcas; Ekstrom, Anna Mia

    2011-03-01

    This paper explores motivational factors and barriers to sexual behaviour change among men receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). Twenty in-depth interviews were undertaken with male patients enrolled at the African Medical and Research Foundation clinic in Africa's largest urban informal settlement, Kibera in Nairobi, Kenya. All participants experienced prolonged and severe illness prior to the initiation of ART. Fear of symptom relapse was the main trigger for sexual behaviour change. Partner reduction was reported as a first option for behaviour change since this decision could be made by the individual. Condom use was perceived as more difficult as it had to be negotiated with female partners. Cultural norms regarding expectations for reproduction and marriage were not supportive of sexual risk-reduction strategies. Thus, local sociocultural contexts of HIV-infected people must be incorporated into the contextual adaptation and design of ART programmes and services as they have an over-riding influence on sexual behaviour and programme effectiveness. Also, HIV-prevention interventions need to address both personal, micro- and macro-level factors of behaviour to encourage individuals to take on sexual risk-reduction strategies. In order to achieve the anticipated preventive effect of ART, these issues are important for the donor community and policy-makers, who are the major providers of ART programme support within weak health systems in sub-Saharan Africa. PMID:21347894

  3. Risks, benefits and survival strategies-views from female sex workers in Savannakhet, Laos

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Female sex workers (FSWs) are vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and encounter socio-economic and health problems, including STIs/HIV, unintended pregnancy and complications from unsafe abortion, stigma, violence, and drug addiction. Reducing risks associated with sex work requires an understanding of the social and cultural context in which sex workers live and work. This study aimed to explore the working environment and perceived risks among FSWs in Savannakhet province in Laos. Methods Five focus group discussions (FGDs) and seven interviews were conducted with FSWs in Kaysone Phomvihan district in Laos. Latent content analysis was used to analyze the transcribed text. Results The results revealed that the FSWs were aware of risks but they also talked about benefits related to their work. The risks were grouped into six categories: STIs/HIV, unintended pregnancy, stigma, violence, being cheated, and social and economic insecurity. The reported benefits were financial security, fulfilling social obligations, and sexual pleasure. The FSWs reported using a number of strategies to reduce risks and increase benefits. Conclusions The desire to be self-sufficient and earn as much money as possible put the FSWs in disadvantaged and vulnerable situations. Fear of financial insecurity, obligations to support one’s family and the need to secure the future influenced FSWs’ decisions to have safe or unsafe sex. The FSWs were, however, not only victims. They also had some control over their lives and working environment, with most viewing their work as an easy and good way of earning money. PMID:23164407

  4. NASA's Agency-wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duda, Kristen; Scroggins. Sharon

    2008-01-01

    NASA's mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research. To help enable existing and future programs to pursue this mission, NASA has established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) to proactively identify, analyze, and communicate environmental regulatory risks to the NASA community. The RRAC PC is chartered to evaluate the risks posed to NASA Programs and facilities by environmentally related drivers. The RRAC PC focuses on emerging environmental regulations, as well as risks related to operational changes that can trigger existing environmental requirements. Changing regulations have the potential to directly affect program activities. For example, regulatory changes can restrict certain activities or operations by mandating changes in how operations may be done or limiting where or how certain operations can take place. Regulatory changes also can directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage aPi'iications of certain materials. Such changes can result in NASA undertaking material replacement efforts. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented several strategies for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA Programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the lessons learned through establishing the RRAC PC, the process by which the RRAC PC monitors and distributes information about emerging regulatory requirements, and the cross

  5. NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duda, Kristen; Scroggins, Sharon

    2008-01-01

    NASA's mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research. To help enable existing and future programs to pursue this mission, NASA has established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) to proactively identify, analyze, and communicate environmental regulatory risks to the NASA community. The RRAC PC is chartered to evaluate the risks posed to NASA Programs and facilities by environmentally related drivers. The RRAC PC focuses on emerging environmental regulations, as well as risks related to operational changes that can trigger existing environmental requirements. Changing regulations have the potential to directly affect program activities. For example, regulatory changes can restrict certain activities or operations by mandating changes in how operations may be done or limiting where or how certain operations can take place. Regulatory changes also can directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Such changes can result in NASA undertaking material replacement efforts. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented several strategies for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA Programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the lessons learned through establishing the RRAC PC, the process by which the RRAC PC monitors and distributes information about emerging regulatory requirements, and the cross

  6. Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for integrating MRI into breast cancer screening for women at high risk

    PubMed Central

    Ahern, C H; Shih, Y-C T; Dong, W; Parmigiani, G; Shen, Y

    2014-01-01

    Background: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended for women at high risk for breast cancer. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies involving MRI. Methods: Using a microsimulation model, we generated life histories under different risk profiles, and assessed the impact of screening on quality-adjusted life-years, and lifetime costs, both discounted at 3%. We compared 12 screening strategies combining annual or biennial MRI with mammography and clinical breast examination (CBE) in intervals of 0.5, 1, or 2 years vs without, and reported incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Based on an ICER threshold of $100 000/QALY, the most cost-effective strategy for women at 25% lifetime risk was to stagger MRI and mammography plus CBE every year from age 30 to 74, yielding ICER $58 400 (compared to biennial MRI alone). At 50% lifetime risk and with 70% reduction in MRI cost, the recommended strategy was to stagger MRI and mammography plus CBE every 6 months (ICER=$84 400). At 75% lifetime risk, the recommended strategy is biennial MRI combined with mammography plus CBE every 6 months (ICER=$62 800). Conclusions: The high costs of MRI and its lower specificity are limiting factors for annual screening schedule of MRI, except for women at sufficiently high risk. PMID:25137022

  7. Strategy to decrease the risk of adverse effects of fragrance ingredients in cosmetic products.

    PubMed

    Jansson, T; Lodén, M

    2001-09-01

    In spite of extensive self-regulation of the fragrance industry, fragrance ingredients are still major causes of allergic contact dermatitis. There are indications that the problem is increasing in some countries, and that many nonregulated compounds are involved in the development of allergies. The use of essential oils in fragrance compounds might add both allergenic and carcinogenic compounds to a product and the exact composition of such ingredients is difficult to control. Herein, we propose a simple strategy to decrease the risk of adverse effects of fragrance ingredients in cosmetic products. This strategy consists of four major steps: (1) limit the concentration of fragrance compound in the products, (2) follow legislation and guidelines, (3) limit the concentration of a number of well-known sensitizing fragrance chemicals, and (4) limit the concentration of essential oils and materials with unknown composition. The strategy is discussed as an alternative to animal testing and in relation to other more resource-demanding approaches to the same problem. PMID:11526523

  8. Integrating a top-down and a bottom-up approach: formal and informal risk-handling strategies in a utility company.

    PubMed

    Mascini, Peter; Bacharias, Yannis

    2012-09-01

    In this study, we bring together a top-down and a bottom-up approach of risk handling. We do so by conceptualizing and qualitatively and quantitatively measuring formal and informal risk-handling strategies in a Dutch utility company. We conceive of formal risk handling as regulating, training, and educating safety and enforcing rule compliance, while we distinguish three different informal risk-handling strategies: discretionary specialization, tacit knowledge, and taking personal responsibility. We show that the formal risk-handling strategy and the three informal risk-handling strategies can be measured separately. Hence, we have validated the measurement of all four strategies derived from two different risk-handling approaches. Moreover, we have demonstrated that the perceived use of the four strategies has different effects on unsafe behavior: formal risk handling and tacit knowledge decrease it, discretion increases it, and taking personal responsibility has no effect on unsafe behavior. PMID:22324846

  9. Obesity, Oxidative Stress, Adipose Tissue Dysfunction, and the Associated Health Risks: Causes and Therapeutic Strategies.

    PubMed

    Manna, Prasenjit; Jain, Sushil K

    2015-12-01

    Obesity is gaining acceptance as a serious primary health burden that impairs the quality of life because of its associated complications, including diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, asthma, sleep disorders, hepatic dysfunction, renal dysfunction, and infertility. It is a complex metabolic disorder with a multifactorial origin. Growing evidence suggests that oxidative stress plays a role as the critical factor linking obesity with its associated complications. Obesity per se can induce systemic oxidative stress through various biochemical mechanisms, such as superoxide generation from NADPH oxidases, oxidative phosphorylation, glyceraldehyde auto-oxidation, protein kinase C activation, and polyol and hexosamine pathways. Other factors that also contribute to oxidative stress in obesity include hyperleptinemia, low antioxidant defense, chronic inflammation, and postprandial reactive oxygen species generation. In addition, recent studies suggest that adipose tissue plays a critical role in regulating the pathophysiological mechanisms of obesity and its related co-morbidities. To establish an adequate platform for the prevention of obesity and its associated health risks, understanding the factors that contribute to the cause of obesity is necessary. The most current list of obesity determinants includes genetic factors, dietary intake, physical activity, environmental and socioeconomic factors, eating disorders, and societal influences. On the basis of the currently identified predominant determinants of obesity, a broad range of strategies have been recommended to reduce the prevalence of obesity, such as regular physical activity, ad libitum food intake limiting to certain micronutrients, increased dietary intake of fruits and vegetables, and meal replacements. This review aims to highlight recent findings regarding the role of oxidative stress in the pathogenesis of obesity and its associated risk factors, the role of dysfunctional adipose tissue in

  10. Targeted screening for colorectal cancer in high-risk individuals.

    PubMed

    Wong, Martin C S; Wong, Sunny H; Ng, Siew C; Wu, Justin C Y; Chan, Francis K L; Sung, Joseph J Y

    2015-12-01

    The idea of targeted screening for colorectal cancer based on risk profiles originates from its benefits to improve detection yield and optimize screening efficiency. Clinically, it allows individuals to be more aware of their own risk and make informed decisions on screening choice. From a public health perspective, the implementation of risk stratification strategies may better justify utilization of colonoscopic resources, and facilitate resource-planning in the formulation of population-based screening programmes. There are several at-risk groups who should receive earlier screening, and colonoscopy is more preferred. This review summarizes the currently recommended CRC screening strategies among subjects with different risk factors, and introduces existing risk scoring systems. Additional genetic, epidemiological, and clinical parameters may be needed to enhance their performance to risk-stratify screening participants. Future research studies should refine these scoring systems, and explore the adaptability, feasibility, acceptability, and user-friendliness of their use in clinical practice among different population groups. PMID:26651255

  11. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies to reduce non-structural damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Lopes, Mário; Mota de Sá, Francisco; Amaral Ferreia, Mónica; Candeias, Paulo; Campos Costa, Alfredo; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Meroni, Fabrizio; Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Musacchio, Gemma; Sousa Silva, Delta; Falsaperla, Susanna; Scarfì, Luciano; Tusa, Giuseppina; Tuvé, Tiziana

    2016-04-01

    The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. Non-structural components of a building include all those components that are not part of the structural system, more specifically the architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, as well as furniture, fixtures, equipment, and contents. Windows, partitions, granite veneer, piping, ceilings, air conditioning ducts and equipment, elevators, computer and hospital equipment, file cabinets, and retail merchandise are all examples of non-structural components that are vulnerable to earthquake damage. We will use the experience gained during past earthquakes, which struck in particular Iceland, Italy and Portugal (Azores). Securing the non-structural elements improves the safety during an earthquake and saves lives. This paper aims at identifying non-structural seismic protection measures in the pilot areas and to develop a portfolio of good practices for the most common and serious non-structural vulnerabilities. This systematic identification and the portfolio will be achieved through a "cross-knowledge" strategy based on previous researches, evidence of non-structural damage in past earthquakes. Shake table tests of a group of non-structural elements will be performed. These tests will be filmed and, jointly with portfolio, will serve as didactic supporting tools to be used in workshops with building construction stakeholders and in risk communication activities. A Practical Guide for non-structural risk reduction will be specifically prepared for citizens on the basis of the outputs of the project, taking into account the local culture and needs of each participating country.

  12. Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

  13. Chemical stratification in the silicate earth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herzberg, C. T.

    1983-01-01

    A primary stratigraphic model is presented for the distribution of depleted, enriched, and primordial isotopic mantle components that have been formed by the transport of magmas at the begining of geological history. Depleted midoceanic ridge basalt source regions were established in the uppermost part of the upper mantle, while the primordial mantle was located at the middle and deepest regions of an upper mantle which was processed by anhydrous melting and crystallization. The lower mantle became heterogeneous, with enrichments at the top and depletions elsewhere. It is suggested that the present day isotopic structure of the mantle has inherited elements of this primary stratification.

  14. Risk of large-scale evacuation based on the effectiveness of rescue strategies under different crowd densities.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jinghong; Lo, Siuming; Wang, Qingsong; Sun, Jinhua; Mu, Honglin

    2013-08-01

    Crowd density is a key factor that influences the moving characteristics of a large group of people during a large-scale evacuation. In this article, the macro features of crowd flow and subsequent rescue strategies were considered, and a series of characteristic crowd densities that affect large-scale people movement, as well as the maximum bearing density when the crowd is extremely congested, were analyzed. On the basis of characteristic crowd densities, the queuing theory was applied to simulate crowd movement. Accordingly, the moving characteristics of the crowd and the effects of typical crowd density-which is viewed as the representation of the crowd's arrival intensity in front of the evacuation passageways-on rescue strategies was studied. Furthermore, a "risk axle of crowd density" is proposed to determine the efficiency of rescue strategies in a large-scale evacuation, i.e., whether the rescue strategies are able to effectively maintain or improve evacuation efficiency. Finally, through some rational hypotheses for the value of evacuation risk, a three-dimensional distribution of the evacuation risk is established to illustrate the risk axle of crowd density. This work aims to make some macro, but original, analysis on the risk of large-scale crowd evacuation from the perspective of the efficiency of rescue strategies. PMID:23126453

  15. Research in progress: Medical Research Council United Kingdom Refractory Asthma Stratification Programme (RASP-UK)

    PubMed Central

    Heaney, Liam G; Djukanovic, Ratko; Woodcock, Ashley; Walker, Samantha; Matthews, John G; Pavord, Ian D; Bradding, Peter; Niven, Robert; Brightling, Chris E; Chaudhuri, Rekha; Arron, Joseph R; Choy, David F; Cowan, Douglas; Mansur, Adel; Menzies-Gow, Andrew; Adcock, Ian; Chung, Kian F; Corrigan, Chris; Coyle, Peter; Harrison, Timothy; Johnston, Sebastian; Howarth, Peter; Lordan, James; Sabroe, Ian; Bigler, Jeannette; Smith, Dirk; Catley, Matthew; May, Richard; Pierre, Lisa; Stevenson, Chris; Crater, Glenn; Keane, Frank; Costello, Richard W; Hudson, Val; Supple, David; Hardman, Tim

    2016-01-01

    The UK Refractory Asthma Stratification Programme (RASP-UK) will explore novel biomarker stratification strategies in severe asthma to improve clinical management and accelerate development of new therapies. Prior asthma mechanistic studies have not stratified on inflammatory phenotype and the understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms in asthma without Type 2 cytokine inflammation is limited. RASP-UK will objectively assess adherence to corticosteroids (CS) and examine a novel composite biomarker strategy to optimise CS dose; this will also address what proportion of patients with severe asthma have persistent symptoms without eosinophilic airways inflammation after progressive CS withdrawal. There will be interactive partnership with the pharmaceutical industry to facilitate access to stratified populations for novel therapeutic studies. PMID:26205878

  16. Research in progress: Medical Research Council United Kingdom Refractory Asthma Stratification Programme (RASP-UK).

    PubMed

    Heaney, Liam G; Djukanovic, Ratko; Woodcock, Ashley; Walker, Samantha; Matthews, John G; Pavord, Ian D; Bradding, Peter; Niven, Robert; Brightling, Chris E; Chaudhuri, Rekha; Arron, Joseph R; Choy, David F; Cowan, Douglas; Mansur, Adel; Menzies-Gow, Andrew; Adcock, Ian; Chung, Kian F; Corrigan, Chris; Coyle, Peter; Harrison, Timothy; Johnston, Sebastian; Howarth, Peter; Lordan, James; Sabroe, Ian; Bigler, Jeannette; Smith, Dirk; Catley, Matthew; May, Richard; Pierre, Lisa; Stevenson, Chris; Crater, Glenn; Keane, Frank; Costello, Richard W; Hudson, Val; Supple, David; Hardman, Tim

    2016-02-01

    The UK Refractory Asthma Stratification Programme (RASP-UK) will explore novel biomarker stratification strategies in severe asthma to improve clinical management and accelerate development of new therapies. Prior asthma mechanistic studies have not stratified on inflammatory phenotype and the understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms in asthma without Type 2 cytokine inflammation is limited. RASP-UK will objectively assess adherence to corticosteroids (CS) and examine a novel composite biomarker strategy to optimise CS dose; this will also address what proportion of patients with severe asthma have persistent symptoms without eosinophilic airways inflammation after progressive CS withdrawal. There will be interactive partnership with the pharmaceutical industry to facilitate access to stratified populations for novel therapeutic studies. PMID:26205878

  17. From LEO, to the Moon and then Mars: Developing a Global Strategy for Exploration Risk Reduction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laurini, Kathleen C.; Hufenbach, Bernard

    2009-01-01

    Most nations currently involved in human spaceflight, or with such ambitions, believe that space exploration will capture the imagination of our youth resulting in future engineers and scientists, advance technologies which will improve life on earth, increase the knowledge of our solar system, and strengthen bonds and relationships across the globe. The Global Exploration Strategy, published in 2007 by 14 space agencies, eloquently makes this case and presents a vision for space exploration. It argues that in order for space exploration to be sustainable, nations must work together to address the challenges and share the burden of costs. This paper will examine Mars mission scenarios developed by NASA, ESA and other agencies and show resulting conclusions regarding key challenges, needed technologies and associated mission risks. It will discuss the importance of using the International Space Station as a platform for exploration risk reduction and how the global exploration community will develop lunar exploration elements and architectures that enable the long term goal of human missions to Mars. The International Space Station (ISS) is a critical first step both from a technology and capability demonstration point of view, but also from a partnership point of view. There is much work that can be done in low earth orbit for exploration risk reduction. As the current "outpost at the edge of the frontier", the ISS is a place where we can demonstrate certain technologies and capabilities that will substantially reduce the risk of deploying an outpost on the lunar surface and Mars mission scenarios. The ISS partnership is strong and has fulfilled mission needs. Likewise, the partnerships we build on the moon will provide a strong foundation for establishing partnerships for the human Mars missions. On the moon, we build a permanently manned outpost and deploy technologies and capabilities to allow humans to stay for long periods of time. The moon is interesting from

  18. Risk-mitigation strategies for large earth flows in Northern Apennines (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertolini, Giovanni

    2010-05-01

    This presentation proposes an overview on ancient earth flows of the Northern Apennines and their reactivation mechanisms, with a view to gleaning information that can subsequently be utilized to implement risk-reduction strategies for land-use planning and mitigation measures. These large landslide bodies are the result of multi-phase events occurred during the last 13.000 years, but, in spite of the ancient origin, they are still dangerous, due to the repetitiveness of the reactivation events. Damages deriving from the recurrent reactivation of these ancient landslides exceeds the 90% of the total. The hazard assessment of these landslides, which are of slope scale, constitutes a thorny problem, especially in view of the inapplicability of traditional deterministic models such as limit equilibrium stability analysis. The usual set of factors that form the basis of deterministic methods is insufficient to make reliable predictions about the future behaviour of these landslides and their related hazard. Nevertheless, a site-specific assessment of probability of reactivation is fundamental to effective land-use planning. The observation of real, recent events (e.g. Boschi di Valoria, Corniglio and Cà Lita) has proved to be an useful mean for understanding which are the conditions and behaviours that usually lead to the reactivation of an ancient earth flow. More in general, the analysis of the evolution of earth flows during actual reactivation acknowledges a typical, recurring succession of events that precede the failure of the slope. In order to perform an effective risk-reduction strategy, a site-specific, interdisciplinary and partially heuristic approach should be implemented, pooling together many elements of evaluation. Most importantly, using detailed field observation and all other available means, the hazard estimate must consider possible indicators of present and recent movement, or situations that could lead to future reactivation, with special

  19. Inertial destabilization of highly viscous microfluidic stratifications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Xiaoyi; Cubaud, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    The hydrodynamic stability of stratifications made between miscible fluids having large differences in viscosity is experimentally investigated in square microchannels. Parallel fluid layers with a fast central stream and a slow sheath flow are produced by focusing a low-viscosity fluid into a high-viscosity fluid in a straight microchannel. Three regimes are identified and include diffusive, stable, and unstable flow patterns. In the unstable regime, coupled interfacial waves are seen to significantly disrupt strata when the Reynolds number associated with the low-viscosity stream is above 90. Several functional relationships are developed for the stratification width, propagating celerity, wavelength, amplitude, and frequency of interfacial waves over a range of viscosities and flow rates. We demonstrate, in particular, the wave phase locking for small central streams and show the production of high-viscosity fluid ligaments at the wave crests. In this case, a minute amount of high-viscosity fluid is entrained and blended into the low-viscosity fluid stream, thereby providing an original in-line mixing method for continuously adding a viscosifier to a thin fluid in microchannels.

  20. Potential risk and control strategy of biofilm pretreatment process treating raw water.

    PubMed

    Yang, Guang-Feng; Feng, Li-Juan; Wang, Sha-Fei; Zhou, Jia-Heng; Guo, Cai-Rong; Xia, Tian; Sun, Wen-Xiong; Jiang, Yue-Jie; Sun, Xiao-Yan; Cao, Lian; Xu, Xiang-Yang; Zhu, Liang

    2015-12-01

    An enhanced lab-scale biofilm pretreatment process treating raw water obtained from eutrophicated water bodies was established and started up with a novel strategy of low-level nutrients addition and effluent recirculation. Results showed that the startup strategy was useful for biofilm formation and pollutants removal, but it had the risks of increasing substrate affinity constant (Ks) and biofilm decay in treating raw water. Fortunately, the increased Ks value did not affected the NH4(+)-N removal performance via keeping the NH4(+)-N loading rate larger than 6.29 mg L(-1)d(-1). In addition, lower hydraulic retention time (HRT) favored the removal of organic matters, and the maximum TOC removal rate of 76.5 mg L(-1)d(-1) were achieved at HRT of 2h. After long-term acclimatization at oligotrophic niche, the decrease of Ks value and increase of biomass, extracellular polymeric substances, bioactivity were achieved. Finally, the stable operation of biofilm pretreatment process was realized in treating polluted raw water. PMID:26413896

  1. Preventing Violence Among High-Risk Youth and Communities with Economic, Policy, and Structural Strategies.

    PubMed

    Massetti, Greta M; David-Ferdon, Corinne

    2016-02-12

    Youth violence is preventable, and the reduction of health disparities is possible with evidence-based approaches. Achieving community-wide reductions in youth violence and health disparities has been limited in part because of the lack of prevention strategies to address community risk factors. CDC-supported research has resulted in three promising community-level approaches: Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) in Los Angeles, California; alcohol policy to reduce youth access in Richmond, Virginia; and the Safe Streets program in Baltimore, Maryland. Evaluation findings indicated that BIDs in Los Angeles were associated with a 12% reduction in robberies (one type of violent crime) and an 8% reduction in violent crime overall. In Richmond's alcohol policy program, investigators found that the monthly average of ambulance pickups for violent injuries among youth aged 15-24 years had a significantly greater decrease in the intervention (19.6 to 0 per 1,000) than comparison communities (7.4 to 3.3 per 1,000). Investigators of Safe Streets found that some intervention communities experienced reductions in homicide and/or nonfatal shootings, but results were not consistent across communities. Communitywide rates of violence can be changed in communities with disproportionately high rates of youth violence associated with entrenched health disparities and socioeconomic disadvantage. Community-level strategies are a critical part of comprehensive approaches necessary to achieve broad reductions in violence and health disparities. PMID:26916848

  2. On the choice of risk optimal data embedding strategy, safe embedding rate, and passive steganalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandramouli, Rajarathnam

    2005-03-01

    Suppose Alice the information hider wants to send a stego message to Bob in the presence of Wendy the (passive) warden. Wendy employs one of n different passive steganalysis detectors to decide if the data from Alice contains any hidden message before passing it on to Bob. Suppose Alice can choose from a set of information hiding schemes and possesses only an incomplete information about the steganalysis strategy choice of Wendy. That is, suppose Alice only knows an ordering of the probabilities (and not the values themselves), say, p1 >= p2 >= ... >= pn where pj is the probability of Wendy using jth detector. Under this scenario we investigate answers to the following two questions by generalizing a previous result by the author and deriving new ones: (a) how must Alice choose the optimal data hiding strategy subject to risk constraints and (b) what is the maximum safe embedding rate, i.e., maximum message rate that can be embedded without being detected by Wendy? Detailed analysis and numerical results are presented to answer these questions.

  3. Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control classical swine fever epidemics

    PubMed Central

    Backer, Jantien A.; Hagenaars, Thomas J.; van Roermund, Herman J.W.; de Jong, Mart C.M.

    2009-01-01

    In a recent update of the Dutch contingency plan for controlling outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF), emergency vaccination is preferred to large-scale pre-emptive culling. This policy change raised two questions: can emergency vaccination be as effective as pre-emptive culling, and what are the implications for showing freedom of infection? Here, we integrate quantitative information available on CSF virus transmission and vaccination effects into a stochastic mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics at the level of animals, farms and livestock areas. This multilevel approach connects individual-level interventions to large-scale effects. Using this model, we compare the performance of five different control strategies applied to hypothetical CSF epidemics in The Netherlands and, for each of these strategies, we study the properties of three different screening scenarios to show freedom of infection. We find that vaccination in a ring of 2 km radius around a detected infection source is as effective as ring culling in a 1 km radius. Feasible screening scenarios, adapted to the use of emergency vaccination, can reduce the enhanced risks of (initially) undetected farm outbreaks by targeting vaccinated farms. Altogether, our results suggest that emergency vaccination against CSF can be equally effective and safe as pre-emptive culling. PMID:19054739

  4. A Risk-Based Strategy for Geomechanical Characterization of Potential CCS Sites to Prevent Earthquake Triggering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zoback, M. D.

    2012-12-01

    For global CCS projects to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they must operate at levels on the order of one billion tonnes of carbon per year. In a recent paper*, M. D. Zoback and S. M. Gorelick argued that because of the enormous injection volumes (roughly equivalent to the 27 billions barrels of oil produced globally each year), the likelihood of triggering small-to-moderate size earthquakes made large-scale CCS "an extremely expensive and risky strategy for achieving significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions". In this talk I will present examples from several sites in the relatively stable continental interior of the U.S. that demonstrate that the common assumption that injection of CO2 can proceed safely at pressures up to 1.5 times hydrostatic pressure (or about 70% of the overburden stress) is in excess of the value at which fault slip is triggered. It is important to note that Zoback and Gorelick emphasizes that CCS is an important and useful technology for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in specific situations. Injection into highly porous and permeable reservoirs that are laterally extensive would produce small increases in pressure in response to CO2 injection and weak, and poorly cemented sandstones would not be expected to deform through brittle faulting. In this context, I will outline several elements of a risk-based strategy