Survival analysis of cervical cancer using stratified Cox regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purnami, S. W.; Inayati, K. D.; Sari, N. W. Wulan; Chosuvivatwong, V.; Sriplung, H.

2016-04-01

Cervical cancer is one of the mostly widely cancer cause of the women death in the world including Indonesia. Most cervical cancer patients come to the hospital already in an advanced stadium. As a result, the treatment of cervical cancer becomes more difficult and even can increase the death's risk. One of parameter that can be used to assess successfully of treatment is the probability of survival. This study raises the issue of cervical cancer survival patients at Dr. Soetomo Hospital using stratified Cox regression based on six factors such as age, stadium, treatment initiation, companion disease, complication, and anemia. Stratified Cox model is used because there is one independent variable that does not satisfy the proportional hazards assumption that is stadium. The results of the stratified Cox model show that the complication variable is significant factor which influent survival probability of cervical cancer patient. The obtained hazard ratio is 7.35. It means that cervical cancer patient who has complication is at risk of dying 7.35 times greater than patient who did not has complication. While the adjusted survival curves showed that stadium IV had the lowest probability of survival.

A post hoc analysis of saxagliptin efficacy and safety in patients with type 2 diabetes stratified by UKPDS 10-year cardiovascular risk score.

PubMed

Bonora, E; Bryzinski, B; Hirshberg, B; Cook, W

2016-05-01

To assess the efficacy and safety of saxagliptin 2.5 and 5 mg/d in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke as estimated by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Post hoc analysis of data pooled from 5 previously reported phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled, 24-week studies was conducted. Patients were stratified into subgroups by UKPDS 10-year CHD and/or stroke risk ≥20% and CHD and stroke risk <20%. End points were adjusted mean change from baseline in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 120-min postprandial glucose (PPG), and body weight and the proportion of patients achieving HbA1c <7% and ≤8% at week 24. Pooled safety data were analyzed for adverse events (AEs) and hypoglycemia. Both doses of saxagliptin reduced HbA1c, FPG, and PPG to a greater extent than placebo regardless of UKPDS risk score. The proportions of patients achieving HbA1c <7% and ≤8% were greater with saxagliptin than placebo and consistent across risk score groups. AE profile and hypoglycemia incidence were similar for saxagliptin and placebo across UKPDS risk score groups. Saxagliptin was well tolerated and improved glycemic control in patients with T2DM regardless of their CHD and stroke UKPDS risk score. Clinical trial registration numbers: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00121641, NCT00316082, NCT00121667, NCT00313313, and NCT00295633. Copyright © 2015 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variation in Outcomes for Risk-Stratified Pediatric Cardiac Surgical Operations: An Analysis of the STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database

PubMed Central

Jacobs, Jeffrey Phillip; O'Brien, Sean M.; Pasquali, Sara K.; Jacobs, Marshall Lewis; Lacour-Gayet, François G.; Tchervenkov, Christo I.; Austin III, Erle H.; Pizarro, Christian; Pourmoghadam, Kamal K.; Scholl, Frank G.; Welke, Karl F.; Gaynor, J. William; Clarke, David R.; Mayer, John E.; Mavroudis, Constantine

2013-01-01

Background. We evaluated outcomes for groups of risk-stratified operations in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database to provide contemporary benchmarks and examine variation between centers. Methods. Patients undergoing surgery from 2005 to 2009 were included. Centers with more than 10% missing data were excluded. Discharge mortality and postoperative length of stay (PLOS) among patients discharged alive were calculated for groups of risk-stratified operations using the five Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery Congenital Heart Surgery mortality categories (STAT Mortality Categories). Power for analyzing between-center differences in outcome was determined for each STAT Mortality Category. Variation was evaluated using funnel plots and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Results. In this analysis of risk-stratified operations, 58,506 index operations at 73 centers were included. Overall discharge mortality (interquartile range among programs with more than 10 cases) was as follows: STAT Category 1 = 0.55% (0% to 1.0%), STAT Category 2 = 1.7% (1.0% to 2.2%), STAT Category 3 = 2.6% (1.1% to 4.4%), STAT Category 4 = 8.0% (6.3% to 11.1%), and STAT Category 5 = 18.4% (13.9% to 27.9%). Funnel plots with 95% prediction limits revealed the number of centers characterized as outliers by STAT Mortality Categories was as follows: Category 1 = 3 (4.1%), Category 2 = 1 (1.4%), Category 3 = 7 (9.7%), Category 4 = 13 (17.8%), and Category 5 = 13 (18.6%). Between-center variation in PLOS was analyzed for all STAT Categories and was greatest for STAT Category 5 operations. Conclusions. This analysis documents contemporary benchmarks for risk-stratified pediatric cardiac surgical operations grouped by STAT Mortality Categories and the range of outcomes among centers. Variation was greatest for the more complex operations. These data may aid in the design and planning of quality assessment and quality improvement

Variation in outcomes for risk-stratified pediatric cardiac surgical operations: an analysis of the STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database.

PubMed

Jacobs, Jeffrey Phillip; O'Brien, Sean M; Pasquali, Sara K; Jacobs, Marshall Lewis; Lacour-Gayet, François G; Tchervenkov, Christo I; Austin, Erle H; Pizarro, Christian; Pourmoghadam, Kamal K; Scholl, Frank G; Welke, Karl F; Gaynor, J William; Clarke, David R; Mayer, John E; Mavroudis, Constantine

2012-08-01

We evaluated outcomes for groups of risk-stratified operations in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database to provide contemporary benchmarks and examine variation between centers. Patients undergoing surgery from 2005 to 2009 were included. Centers with more than 10% missing data were excluded. Discharge mortality and postoperative length of stay (PLOS) among patients discharged alive were calculated for groups of risk-stratified operations using the five Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery Congenital Heart Surgery mortality categories (STAT Mortality Categories). Power for analyzing between-center differences in outcome was determined for each STAT Mortality Category. Variation was evaluated using funnel plots and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. In this analysis of risk-stratified operations, 58,506 index operations at 73 centers were included. Overall discharge mortality (interquartile range among programs with more than 10 cases) was as follows: STAT Category 1=0.55% (0% to 1.0%), STAT Category 2=1.7% (1.0% to 2.2%), STAT Category 3=2.6% (1.1% to 4.4%), STAT Category 4=8.0% (6.3% to 11.1%), and STAT Category 5=18.4% (13.9% to 27.9%). Funnel plots with 95% prediction limits revealed the number of centers characterized as outliers by STAT Mortality Categories was as follows: Category 1=3 (4.1%), Category 2=1 (1.4%), Category 3=7 (9.7%), Category 4=13 (17.8%), and Category 5=13 (18.6%). Between-center variation in PLOS was analyzed for all STAT Categories and was greatest for STAT Category 5 operations. This analysis documents contemporary benchmarks for risk-stratified pediatric cardiac surgical operations grouped by STAT Mortality Categories and the range of outcomes among centers. Variation was greatest for the more complex operations. These data may aid in the design and planning of quality assessment and quality improvement initiatives. Copyright © 2012 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons

Anatomical grades of nerve sparing: a risk-stratified approach to neural-hammock sparing during robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP).

PubMed

Tewari, Ashutosh K; Srivastava, Abhishek; Huang, Michael W; Robinson, Brian D; Shevchuk, Maria M; Durand, Matthieu; Sooriakumaran, Prasanna; Grover, Sonal; Yadav, Rajiv; Mishra, Nishant; Mohan, Sanjay; Brooks, Danielle C; Shaikh, Nusrat; Khanna, Abhinav; Leung, Robert

2011-09-01

• To report the potency and oncological outcomes of patients undergoing robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) using a risk-stratified approach based on layers of periprostatic fascial dissection. • We also describe the surgical technique of complete hammock preservation or nerve sparing grade 1. • This is a retrospective study of 2317 patients who had robotic prostatectomy by a single surgeon at a single institution between January 2005 and June 2010. • Included patients were those with ≥ 1 year of follow-up and who were potent preoperatively, defined as having a sexual health inventory for men (SHIM) questionnaire score of >21; thus, the final number of patients in the study cohort was 1263. • Patients were categorized pre-operatively by a risk-stratified approach into risk grades 1-4, where risk grade 1 patients received nerve-sparing grade 1 or complete hammock preservation and so on for risk grades 2-4, as long as intraoperative findings permitted the planned nerve sparing. • We considered return to sexual function post-operatively by two criteria: i) ability to have successful intercourse (score of ≥ 4 on question 2 of the SHIM) and ii) SHIM >21 or return to baseline sexual function. • There was a significant difference across different NS grades in terms of the percentages of patients who had intercourse and returned to baseline sexual function (P < 0.001), with those that underwent NS grade 1 having the highest rates (90.9% and 81.7%) as compared to NS grades 2 (81.4% and 74.3%), 3 (73.5% and 66.1%), and 4 (62% and 54.5%). • The overall positive surgical margin (PSM) rates for patients with NS grades 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 9.9%, 8.1%, 7.2%, and 8.7%, respectively (P = 0.636). • The extraprostatic extension rates were 11.6%, 14.3%, 29.3%, and 36.2%, respectively (P < 0.001). • Similarly, in patients younger than 60, intercourse and return to baseline sexual function rates were 94.9% and 84.3% for NS grade 1 as compared to 85.5% and

Stratifying the risks of oral anticoagulation in patients with liver disease.

PubMed

Efird, Lydia M; Mishkin, Daniel S; Berlowitz, Dan R; Ash, Arlene S; Hylek, Elaine M; Ozonoff, Al; Reisman, Joel I; Zhao, Shibei; Jasuja, Guneet K; Rose, Adam J

2014-05-01

Chronic liver disease presents a relative contraindication to warfarin therapy, but some patients with liver disease nevertheless require long-term anticoagulation. The goal is to identify which patients with liver disease might safely receive warfarin. Among 102 134 patients who received warfarin from the Veterans Affairs from 2007 to 2008, International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision codes identified 1763 patients with chronic liver disease. Specific diagnoses and laboratory values (albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine, and cholesterol) were examined to identify risk of adverse outcomes, while controlling for available bleeding risk factors. Outcomes included percent time in therapeutic range, a measure of anticoagulation control, and major hemorrhagic events, by International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision codes. Patients with liver disease had lower mean time in therapeutic range (53.5%) when compared with patients without (61.7%; P<0.001) and more hemorrhages (hazard ratio, 2.02; P<0.001). Among patients with liver disease, serum albumin and creatinine levels were the strongest predictors of both outcomes. We created a 4-point score system: patients received 1 point each for albumin (2.5-3.49 g/dL) or creatinine (1.01-1.99 mg/dL), and 2 points each for albumin (<2.5 g/dL) or creatinine (≥2 mg/dL). This score predicted both anticoagulation control and hemorrhage. When compared with patients without liver disease, those with a score of zero had modestly lower time in therapeutic range (56.7%) and no increase in hemorrhages (hazard ratio, 1.16; P=0.59), whereas those with the worst score (4) had poor control (29.4%) and high hazard of hemorrhage (hazard ratio, 8.53; P<0.001). Patients with liver disease receiving warfarin have poorer anticoagulation control and more hemorrhages. A simple 4-point scoring system using albumin and creatinine identifies those at risk for poor outcomes. © 2014 American

Stratifying risk in the prevention of recurrent variceal hemorrhage: Results of an individual patient meta-analysis.

PubMed

Albillos, Agustín; Zamora, Javier; Martínez, Javier; Arroyo, David; Ahmad, Irfan; De-la-Peña, Joaquin; Garcia-Pagán, Juan-Carlos; Lo, Gin-Ho; Sarin, Shiv; Sharma, Barjesh; Abraldes, Juan G; Bosch, Jaime; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe

2017-10-01

Endoscopic variceal ligation plus beta-blockers (EVL+BB) is currently recommended for variceal rebleeding prophylaxis, a recommendation that extends to all patients with cirrhosis with previous variceal bleeding irrespective of prognostic stage. Individualizing patient care is relevant, and in published studies on variceal rebleeding prophylaxis, there is a lack of information regarding response to therapy by prognostic stage. This study aimed at comparing EVL plus BB with monotherapy (EVL or BB) on all-source rebleeding and mortality in patients with cirrhosis and previous variceal bleeding stratified by cirrhosis severity (Child A versus B/C) by means of individual time-to-event patient data meta-analysis from randomized controlled trials. The study used individual data on 389 patients from three trials comparing EVL plus BB versus BB and 416 patients from four trials comparing EVL plus BB versus EVL. Compared with BB alone, EVL plus BB reduced overall rebleeding in Child A (incidence rate ratio 0.40; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-0.89; P = 0.025) but not in Child B/C, without differences in mortality. The effect of EVL on rebleeding was different according to Child (P for interaction <0.001). Conversely, compared with EVL, EVL plus BB reduced rebleeding in both Child A and B/C, with a significant reduction in mortality in Child B/C (incidence rate ratio 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.85; P = 0.013). Outcomes of therapies to prevent variceal rebleeding differ depending on cirrhosis severity: in patients with preserved liver function (Child A), combination therapy is recommended because it is more effective in preventing rebleeding, without modifying survival, while in patients with advanced liver failure (Child B/C), EVL alone carries an increased risk of rebleeding and death compared with combination therapy, underlining that BB is the key element of combination therapy. (Hepatology 2017;66:1219-1231). © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of

Implementing risk-stratified screening for common cancers: a review of potential ethical, legal and social issues

PubMed Central

Hall, A.E.; Chowdhury, S.; Hallowell, N.; Pashayan, N.; Dent, T.; Pharoah, P.; Burton, H.

2014-01-01

Background The identification of common genetic variants associated with common cancers including breast, prostate and ovarian cancers would allow population stratification by genotype to effectively target screening and treatment. As scientific, clinical and economic evidence mounts there will be increasing pressure for risk-stratified screening programmes to be implemented. Methods This paper reviews some of the main ethical, legal and social issues (ELSI) raised by the introduction of genotyping into risk-stratified screening programmes, in terms of Beauchamp and Childress's four principles of biomedical ethics—respect for autonomy, non-maleficence, beneficence and justice. Two alternative approaches to data collection, storage, communication and consent are used to exemplify the ELSI issues that are likely to be raised. Results Ultimately, the provision of risk-stratified screening using genotyping raises fundamental questions about respective roles of individuals, healthcare providers and the state in organizing or mandating such programmes, and the principles, which underpin their provision, particularly the requirement for distributive justice. Conclusions The scope and breadth of these issues suggest that ELSI relating to risk-stratified screening will become increasingly important for policy-makers, healthcare professionals and a wide diversity of stakeholders. PMID:23986542

In-hospital fall-risk screening in 4,735 geriatric patients from the LUCAS project.

PubMed

Neumann, L; Hoffmann, V S; Golgert, S; Hasford, J; Von Renteln-Kruse, W

2013-03-01

In-hospital falls in older patients are frequent, but the identification of patients at risk of falling is challenging. Aim of this study was to improve the identification of high-risk patients. Therefore, a simplified screening-tool was developed, validated, and compared to the STRATIFY predictive accuracy. Retrospective analysis of 4,735 patients; evaluation of predictive accuracy of STRATIFY and its single risk factors, as well as age, gender and psychotropic medication; splitting the dataset into a learning and a validation sample for modelling fall-risk screening and independent, temporal validation. Geriatric clinic at an academic teaching hospital in Hamburg, Germany. 4,735 hospitalised patients ≥65 years. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, Odds Ratios, Youden-Index and the rates of falls and fallers were calculated. There were 10.7% fallers, and the fall rate was 7.9/1,000 hospital days. In the learning sample, mental alteration (OR 2.9), fall history (OR 2.1), and insecure mobility (Barthel-Index items 'transfer' + 'walking' score = 5, 10 or 15) (OR 2.3) had the most strongest association to falls. The LUCAS Fall-Risk Screening uses these risk factors, and patients with ≥2 risk factors contributed to the high-risk group (30.9%). In the validation sample, STRATIFY SENS was 56.8, SPEC 59.6, PPV 13.5 and NPV 92.6 vs. LUCAS Fall-Risk Screening was SENS 46.0, SPEC 71.1, PPV 14.9 and NPV 92.3. Both the STRATIFY and the LUCAS Fall-Risk Screening showed comparable results in defining a high-risk group. Impaired mobility and cognitive status were closely associated to falls. The results do underscore the importance of functional status as essential fall-risk factor in older hospitalised patients.

Implementing risk-stratified screening for common cancers: a review of potential ethical, legal and social issues.

PubMed

Hall, A E; Chowdhury, S; Hallowell, N; Pashayan, N; Dent, T; Pharoah, P; Burton, H

2014-06-01

The identification of common genetic variants associated with common cancers including breast, prostate and ovarian cancers would allow population stratification by genotype to effectively target screening and treatment. As scientific, clinical and economic evidence mounts there will be increasing pressure for risk-stratified screening programmes to be implemented. This paper reviews some of the main ethical, legal and social issues (ELSI) raised by the introduction of genotyping into risk-stratified screening programmes, in terms of Beauchamp and Childress's four principles of biomedical ethics--respect for autonomy, non-maleficence, beneficence and justice. Two alternative approaches to data collection, storage, communication and consent are used to exemplify the ELSI issues that are likely to be raised. Ultimately, the provision of risk-stratified screening using genotyping raises fundamental questions about respective roles of individuals, healthcare providers and the state in organizing or mandating such programmes, and the principles, which underpin their provision, particularly the requirement for distributive justice. The scope and breadth of these issues suggest that ELSI relating to risk-stratified screening will become increasingly important for policy-makers, healthcare professionals and a wide diversity of stakeholders. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health.

Preserved cardiorespiratory function and NT-proBNP levels before and during exercise in patients with recent onset of rheumatoid arthritis: the clinical challenge of stratifying the patient cardiovascular risks.

PubMed

Zoli, A; Bosello, S; Comerci, G; Galiano, N; Forni, A; Loperfido, F; Ferraccioli, G F

2017-01-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure. In RA patients, elevated NT-proBNP levels have been reported to be a prognostic marker of left ventricular dysfunction. In this study, we evaluated cardiorespiratory functional capacity and NT-proBNP levels before and during cardiopulmonary exercise test in early RA (ERA) patients. Twenty ERA patients and 10 healthy controls were studied by color Doppler echocardiography to evaluate ventricular systolic and diastolic function. Arterial stiffness and wave reflections were quantified non-invasively using applanation tonometry of the radial artery. Cardiopulmonary treadmill test was performed to measure peak VO 2 and VE/VCO 2 parameters. NT-proBNP plasma levels were measured before and at the exercise peak during cardiopulmonary exercise. The peak oxygen uptake [VO 2 (ml/min/kg)], the ventilatory equivalents for carbon dioxide (EqCO 2 ), respiratory exchange ratio and arterial stiffness were similar between patients and controls during cardiopulmonary exercise test. Basal and peak cardiopulmonary exercise NT-proBNP plasma levels were comparable in ERA patients with respect to healthy controls. When we analyzed patients according to disease characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors, ERA patients with high disease activity, BMI > 25 kg/m 2 and ACPA positivity presented significantly higher baseline and exercise peak NT-proBNP levels. Cardiorespiratory function is preserved in patients with recent onset of rheumatoid arthritis. The increased basal and exercise peak NT-proBNP plasma levels in patients with negative disease prognostic factors represent a possible marker to stratify the cardiovascular risk in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis.

Severe Hyperkalemia: Can the Electrocardiogram Risk Stratify for Short-term Adverse Events?

PubMed

Durfey, Nicole; Lehnhof, Brian; Bergeson, Andrew; Durfey, Shayla N M; Leytin, Victoria; McAteer, Kristina; Schwam, Eric; Valiquet, Justin

2017-08-01

significant correlation between peaked T waves and short-term adverse events (RR 0.77, 95% CI [0.35-1.70]). Our findings support the use of the ECG to risk stratify patients with severe hyperkalemia for short-term adverse events.

Severe Hyperkalemia: Can the Electrocardiogram Risk Stratify for Short-term Adverse Events?

PubMed Central

Durfey, Nicole; Lehnhof, Brian; Bergeson, Andrew; Durfey, Shayla N.M.; Leytin, Victoria; McAteer, Kristina; Schwam, Eric; Valiquet, Justin

2017-01-01

��11.13). There was no statistically significant correlation between peaked T waves and short-term adverse events (RR 0.77, 95% CI [0.35–1.70]). Conclusion Our findings support the use of the ECG to risk stratify patients with severe hyperkalemia for short-term adverse events. PMID:28874951

The prognostic and risk-stratified value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein in septic patients in the emergency department.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2014-08-01

To evaluate the prognostic and risk-stratified ability of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) in septic patients in the emergency department (ED). From August to November 2012, 295 consecutive septic patients were enrolled. Circulating H-FABP was measured. The predictive value of H-FABP for 28-day mortality, organ dysfunction on ED arrival, and requirement for mechanical ventilation or a vasopressor within 6 hours after ED arrival was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve and logistic regression and was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. The 28-day mortality, APACHE II, MEDS, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores were much higher in H-FABP-positive patients. The incidence of organ dysfunction at ED arrival and requirement for mechanical ventilation or a vasopressor within 6 hours after ED arrival was higher in H-FABP-positive patients. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein was an independent predictor of 28-day mortality and organ dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for H-FABP predicting 28-day mortality and organ dysfunction was 0.784 and 0.755, respectively. Combination of H-FABP and MEDS improved the performance of MEDS in predicting organ dysfunction, and the difference of AUC was statistically significant (P<.05). The combinations of H-FABP and MEDS or H-FABP and APACHE II also improved the prognostic value of MEDS and APACHE II, but the areas under the curve were not statistically different. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein was helpful for prognosis and risk stratification of septic patients in the ED. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Self-Knowledge and Risk in Stratified Medicine

PubMed Central

Hordern, Joshua

2017-01-01

This article considers why and how self-knowledge is important to communication about risk and behaviour change by arguing for four claims. First, it is doubtful that genetic knowledge should properly be called ‘self-knowledge’ when its ordinary effects on self-motivation and behaviour change seem so slight. Second, temptations towards a reductionist, fatalist, construal of persons’ futures through a ‘molecular optic’ should be resisted. Third, any plausible effort to change people's behaviour must engage with cultural self-knowledge, values and beliefs, catalysed by the communication of genetic risk. For example, while a Judaeo-Christian notion of self-knowledge is distinctively theological, people's self-knowledge is plural in its insight and sources. Fourth, self-knowledge is found in compassionate, if tense, communion which yields freedom from determinism even amidst suffering. Stratified medicine thus offers a newly precise kind of humanising health care through societal solidarity with the riskiest. However, stratification may also mean that molecularly unstratified, ‘B’ patients’ experience involves accentuated suffering and disappointment, a concern requiring further research. PMID:28517991

Effect of risk-stratified, protocol-based perioperative chemoprophylaxis on nosocomial infection rates in a series of 31 927 consecutive neurosurgical procedures (1994-2006).

PubMed

Sharma, Manish S; Vohra, Ashma; Thomas, Ponnamma; Kapil, Arti; Suri, Ashish; Chandra, P Sarat; Kale, Shashank S; Mahapatra, Ashok K; Sharma, Bhawani S

2009-06-01

Although the use of prophylactic antibiotics has been shown to significantly decrease the incidence of meningitis after neurosurgery, its effect on extra-neurosurgical-site infections has not been documented. The authors explore the effect of risk-stratified, protocol-based perioperative antibiotic prophylaxis on nosocomial infections in an audit of 31 927 consecutive routine and emergency neurosurgical procedures. Infection rates were objectively quantified by bacteriological positivity on culture of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), blood, urine, wound swab, and tracheal aspirate samples derived from patients with clinicoradiological features of sepsis. Infections were recorded as pulmonary, wound, blood, CSF, and urinary. The total numbers of hospital-acquired infections and the number of patients infected were also recorded. A protocol of perioperative antibiotic prophylaxis of variable duration stratified by patient risk factors was introduced in 2000, which was chosen as the historical turning point. The chi test was used to compare infection rates. A P value of <0.05 was considered significant. A total of 31 927 procedures were performed during the study period 1994-2006; 5171 culture-proven hospital-acquired infections (16.2%) developed in 3686 patients (11.6%). The most common infections were pulmonary (4.4%), followed by bloodstream (3.5%), urinary (3.0%), CSF (2.9%), and wound (2.5%). The incidence of positive tracheal, CSF, blood, wound, and urine cultures decreased significantly after 2000. Chemoprophylaxis, however, altered the prevalent bacterial flora and may have led to the emergence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. A risk-stratified protocol of perioperative antibiotic prophylaxis may help to significantly decrease not only neurosurgical, but also extra-neurosurgical-site body fluid bacteriological culture positivity.

Calcium score of coronary artery stratifies the risk of obstructive coronary artery diseases.

PubMed

Ibrahim, O; Oteh, M; Anwar, I R; Che Hassan, H H; Choor, C K; Hamzaini, A H; Rahman, M M

2013-01-01

Coronary heart disease is a major health problem in Malaysia with high morbidity and mortality. Common primary screening tool of cardiovascular risk stratification is exercise treadmill test (ETT). This communication is to determine the performance of coronary artery calcium score a new method to stratify the presence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in comparison to traditional ETT in patients having coronary artery diseases. Patients between 30 to 60 years old attended the ETT to screen for ischemic heart disease were recruited for Agatston coronary artery calcium score (CACS) of multi-sliced computed tomography (MSCT). Subsequently all patients underwent a full MSCT coronary angiography. The major determinant was the state of CAD whether obstructive (50% stenosis or more) or non-obstructive (less than 50% stenosis). All patients diagnosed with obstructive CAD on MSCT coronary angiogram were subjected to invasive coronary angiogram (ICA) to confirm the findings and planned the need for revascularization. The CACS was 100% sensitivity and 97.5% specificity in detecting obstructive CAD at the optimal cut-off value of 106.5 and above. The positive predictive value (PPV) at CACS ≥ 106 was 71.4% and the negative predictive value (NPV) was consistent at 100%. Compare to ETT, the CACS discriminative value and diagnostic performance was much better (PPV 71.4% vs. 45.5%), respectively. CACS can be a good diagnostic screening tool in patients suspected of CAD, and particularly within the non-diagnostic ETT subgroup with low to moderate cardiovascular risks.

A Matter of Classes: Stratifying Health Care Populations to Produce Better Estimates of Inpatient Costs

PubMed Central

Rein, David B

2005-01-01

Objective To stratify traditional risk-adjustment models by health severity classes in a way that is empirically based, is accessible to policy makers, and improves predictions of inpatient costs. Data Sources Secondary data created from the administrative claims from all 829,356 children aged 21 years and under enrolled in Georgia Medicaid in 1999. Study Design A finite mixture model was used to assign child Medicaid patients to health severity classes. These class assignments were then used to stratify both portions of a traditional two-part risk-adjustment model predicting inpatient Medicaid expenditures. Traditional model results were compared with the stratified model using actuarial statistics. Principal Findings The finite mixture model identified four classes of children: a majority healthy class and three illness classes with increasing levels of severity. Stratifying the traditional two-part risk-adjustment model by health severity classes improved its R2 from 0.17 to 0.25. The majority of additional predictive power resulted from stratifying the second part of the two-part model. Further, the preference for the stratified model was unaffected by months of patient enrollment time. Conclusions Stratifying health care populations based on measures of health severity is a powerful method to achieve more accurate cost predictions. Insurers who ignore the predictive advances of sample stratification in setting risk-adjusted premiums may create strong financial incentives for adverse selection. Finite mixture models provide an empirically based, replicable methodology for stratification that should be accessible to most health care financial managers. PMID:16033501

Advantages of new cardiovascular risk-assessment strategies in high-risk patients with hypertension.

PubMed

Ruilope, Luis M; Segura, Julian

2005-10-01

Accurate assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with hypertension is important when planning appropriate treatment of modifiable risk factors. The causes of CVD are multifactorial, and hypertension seldom exists as an isolated risk factor. Classic models of risk assessment are more accurate than a simple counting of risk factors, but they are not generalizable to all populations. In addition, the risk associated with hypertension is graded, continuous, and independent of other risk factors, and this is not reflected in classic models of risk assessment. This article is intended to review both classic and newer models of CVD risk assessment. MEDLINE was searched for articles published between 1990 and 2005 that contained the terms cardiovascular disease, hypertension, or risk assessment. Articles describing major clinical trials, new data about cardiovascular risk, or global risk stratification were selected for review. Some patients at high long-term risk for CVD events (eg, patients aged <50 years with multiple risk factors) may go untreated because they do not meet the absolute risk-intervention threshold of 20% risk over 10 years with the classic model. Recognition of the limitations of classic risk-assessment models led to new guidelines, particularly those of the European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology. These guidelines view hypertension as one of many risk and disease factors that require treatment to decrease risk. These newer guidelines include a more comprehensive range of risk factors and more finely graded blood pressure ranges to stratify patients by degree of risk. Whether they accurately predict CVD risk in most populations is not known. Evidence from the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) study, which stratified patients by several risk and disease factors, highlights the predictive value of some newer CVD risk assessments. Modern risk assessments, which include blood pressure

Treatment strategies in the acute therapy of migraine: stratified care and early intervention.

PubMed

D'Amico, D; Moschiano, F; Usai, S; Bussone, G

2006-05-01

Various treatment strategies have been proposed to help clinicians provide the most effective acute treatment for migraine patients. Stratified care is based on the concept that the most appropriate initial treatment can be prescribed after evaluation of each patient's headache characteristics. The results of a large multicentre trial showed that when patients were stratified according to disability grade, clinical outcomes were significantly better than with step-care approaches. Prospective studies have shown that treating migraines with triptans when pain is mild (early intervention) considerably increases success rates for endpoints (pain-free at 2 h, sustained pain-free state) for which triptans had relatively poor efficacy in pivotal trials, and which contribute most to patient satisfaction. Stratified care and early treatment are also cost-effective. However these strategies are not suitable for all patients. Stratified care may be rendered difficult by medication contraindications and changes in attack characteristics over time. Early triptan intervention carries a risk of medication overuse and might not be indicated in patients with lack of pain progression. Successful implementation of both strategies requires that physicians are well informed, and that they elicit an exhaustive headache history from each patient.

Do Health Professionals Need Additional Competencies for Stratified Cancer Prevention Based on Genetic Risk Profiling?

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Susmita; Henneman, Lidewij; Dent, Tom; Hall, Alison; Burton, Alice; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Burton, Hilary

2015-01-01

There is growing evidence that inclusion of genetic information about known common susceptibility variants may enable population risk-stratification and personalized prevention for common diseases including cancer. This would require the inclusion of genetic testing as an integral part of individual risk assessment of an asymptomatic individual. Front line health professionals would be expected to interact with and assist asymptomatic individuals through the risk stratification process. In that case, additional knowledge and skills may be needed. Current guidelines and frameworks for genetic competencies of non-specialist health professionals place an emphasis on rare inherited genetic diseases. For common diseases, health professionals do use risk assessment tools but such tools currently do not assess genetic susceptibility of individuals. In this article, we compare the skills and knowledge needed by non-genetic health professionals, if risk-stratified prevention is implemented, with existing competence recommendations from the UK, USA and Europe, in order to assess the gaps in current competences. We found that health professionals would benefit from understanding the contribution of common genetic variations in disease risk, the rationale for a risk-stratified prevention pathway, and the implications of using genomic information in risk-assessment and risk management of asymptomatic individuals for common disease prevention. PMID:26068647

Measurable Residual Disease at Induction Redefines Partial Response in Acute Myeloid Leukemia and Stratifies Outcomes in Patients at Standard Risk Without NPM1 Mutations

PubMed Central

Freeman, Sylvie D.; Hills, Robert K.; Virgo, Paul; Khan, Naeem; Couzens, Steve; Dillon, Richard; Gilkes, Amanda; Upton, Laura; Nielsen, Ove Juul; Cavenagh, James D.; Jones, Gail; Khwaja, Asim; Cahalin, Paul; Thomas, Ian; Grimwade, David; Burnett, Alan K.; Russell, Nigel H.

2018-01-01

Purpose We investigated the effect on outcome of measurable or minimal residual disease (MRD) status after each induction course to evaluate the extent of its predictive value for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) risk groups, including NPM1 wild-type (wt) standard risk, when incorporated with other induction response criteria. Methods As part of the NCRI AML17 trial, 2,450 younger adult patients with AML or high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome had prospective multiparameter flow cytometric MRD (MFC-MRD) assessment. After course 1 (C1), responses were categorized as resistant disease (RD), partial remission (PR), and complete remission (CR) or complete remission with absolute neutrophil count < 1,000/µL or thrombocytopenia < 100,000/μL (CRi) by clinicians, with CR/CRi subdivided by MFC-MRD assay into MRD+ and MRD−. Patients without high-risk factors, including Flt3 internal tandem duplication wt/−NPM1-wt subgroup, received a second daunorubicin/cytosine arabinoside induction; course 2 (C2) was intensified for patients with high-risk factors. Results Survival outcomes from PR and MRD+ responses after C1 were similar, particularly for good- to standard-risk subgroups (5-year overall survival [OS], 27% RD v 46% PR v 51% MRD+ v 70% MRD−; P < .001). Adjusted analyses confirmed significant OS differences between C1 RD versus PR/MRD+ but not PR versus MRD+. CRi after C1 reduced OS in MRD+ (19% CRi v 45% CR; P = .001) patients, with a smaller effect after C2. The prognostic effect of C2 MFC-MRD status (relapse: hazard ratio [HR], 1.88 [95% CI, 1.50 to 2.36], P < .001; survival: HR, 1.77 [95% CI, 1.41 to 2.22], P < .001) remained significant when adjusting for C1 response. MRD positivity appeared less discriminatory in poor-risk patients by stratified analyses. For the NPM1-wt standard-risk subgroup, C2 MRD+ was significantly associated with poorer outcomes (OS, 33% v 63% MRD−, P = .003; relapse incidence, 89% when MRD+ ≥ 0.1%); transplant benefit was more apparent in

Gender-stratified analysis of DLG5 R30Q in 4707 patients with Crohn disease and 4973 controls from 12 Caucasian cohorts.

PubMed

Browning, B L; Annese, V; Barclay, M L; Bingham, S A; Brand, S; Büning, C; Castro, M; Cucchiara, S; Dallapiccola, B; Drummond, H; Ferguson, L R; Ferraris, A; Fisher, S A; Gearry, R B; Glas, J; Henckaerts, L; Huebner, C; Knafelz, D; Lakatos, L; Lakatos, P L; Latiano, A; Liu, X; Mathew, C; Müller-Myhsok, B; Newman, W G; Nimmo, E R; Noble, C L; Palmieri, O; Parkes, M; Petermann, I; Rutgeerts, P; Satsangi, J; Shelling, A N; Siminovitch, K A; Török, H-P; Tremelling, M; Vermeire, S; Valvano, M R; Witt, H

2008-01-01

DLG5 p.R30Q has been reported to be associated with Crohn disease (CD), but this association has not been replicated in most studies. A recent analysis of gender-stratified data from two case-control studies and two population cohorts found an association of DLG5 30Q with increased risk of CD in men but not in women and found differences between 30Q population frequencies for males and females. Male-female differences in population allele frequencies and male-specific risk could explain the difficulty in replicating the association with CD. DLG5 R30Q genotype data were collected for patients with CD and controls from 11 studies that did not include gender-stratified allele counts in their published reports and tested for male-female frequency differences in controls and for case-control frequency differences in men and in women. The data showed no male-female allele frequency differences in controls. An exact conditional test gave marginal evidence that 30Q is associated with decreased risk of CD in women (p = 0.049, OR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.00). There was also a trend towards reduced 30Q frequencies in male patients with CD compared with male controls, but this was not significant at the 0.05 level (p = 0.058, OR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.01). When data from this study were combined with previously published, gender-stratified data, the 30Q allele was found to be associated with decreased risk of CD in women (p = 0.010, OR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.97), but not in men. DLG5 30Q is associated with a small reduction in risk of CD in women.

Risk stratified usage of antibiotic-loaded bone cement for primary total knee arthroplasty: short term infection outcomes with a standardized cement protocol.

PubMed

Qadir, Rabah; Sidhu, Sanbir; Ochsner, J Lockwood; Meyer, Mark S; Chimento, George F

2014-08-01

Efficacy of antibiotic cement (ALBC) in primary knee arthroplasty (pTKA) has been debated. The study's purpose was to examine efficacy of ALBC versus plain cement (PBC) in preventing infection in high-risk patients undergoing pTKA. 3292 consecutive pTKAs were divided into three cohorts: (1) patients receiving only PBC, (2) patients receiving only ALBC, and (3) only high-risk patients receiving ALBC. Cohorts' infections were compared. The 30-day infection rates for cohorts 1, 2, 3 were 0.29%, 0.20%, and 0.13% respectively. 6-month rates were 0.39%, 0.54% and 0.38%. 1-year rates were 0.78%, 0.61%, and 0.64%. Differences in infection rates at all time intervals were not statistically significant. The study supports that even judicious risk-stratified usage of ALBC may not confer added benefit in decreasing infection at one year. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision tree analysis to stratify risk of de novo non-melanoma skin cancer following liver transplantation.

PubMed

Tanaka, Tomohiro; Voigt, Michael D

2018-03-01

Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common de novo malignancy in liver transplant (LT) recipients; it behaves more aggressively and it increases mortality. We used decision tree analysis to develop a tool to stratify and quantify risk of NMSC in LT recipients. We performed Cox regression analysis to identify which predictive variables to enter into the decision tree analysis. Data were from the Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) STAR files of September 2016 (n = 102984). NMSC developed in 4556 of the 105984 recipients, a mean of 5.6 years after transplant. The 5/10/20-year rates of NMSC were 2.9/6.3/13.5%, respectively. Cox regression identified male gender, Caucasian race, age, body mass index (BMI) at LT, and sirolimus use as key predictive or protective factors for NMSC. These factors were entered into a decision tree analysis. The final tree stratified non-Caucasians as low risk (0.8%), and Caucasian males > 47 years, BMI < 40 who did not receive sirolimus, as high risk (7.3% cumulative incidence of NMSC). The predictions in the derivation set were almost identical to those in the validation set (r 2  = 0.971, p < 0.0001). Cumulative incidence of NMSC in low, moderate and high risk groups at 5/10/20 year was 0.5/1.2/3.3, 2.1/4.8/11.7 and 5.6/11.6/23.1% (p < 0.0001). The decision tree model accurately stratifies the risk of developing NMSC in the long-term after LT.

Effect of stratified care for low back pain in family practice (IMPaCT Back): a prospective population-based sequential comparison.

PubMed

Foster, Nadine E; Mullis, Ricky; Hill, Jonathan C; Lewis, Martyn; Whitehurst, David G T; Doyle, Carol; Konstantinou, Kika; Main, Chris; Somerville, Simon; Sowden, Gail; Wathall, Simon; Young, Julie; Hay, Elaine M

2014-01-01

We aimed to determine the effects of implementing risk-stratified care for low back pain in family practice on physician's clinical behavior, patient outcomes, and costs. The IMPaCT Back Study (IMplementation to improve Patient Care through Targeted treatment) prospectively compared separate patient cohorts in a preintervention phase (6 months of usual care) and a postintervention phase (12 months of stratified care) in family practice, involving 64 family physicians and linked physical therapy services. A total of 1,647 adults with low back pain were invited to participate. Stratified care entailed use of a risk stratification tool to classify patients into groups at low, medium, or high risk for persistent disability and provision of risk-matched treatment. The primary outcome was 6-month change in disability as assessed with the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire. Process outcomes captured physician behavior change in risk-appropriate referral to physical therapy, diagnostic tests, medication prescriptions, and sickness certifications. A cost-utility analysis estimated incremental quality-adjusted life-years and back-related health care costs. Analysis was by intention to treat. The 922 patients studied (368 in the preintervention phase and 554 in the postintervention phase) had comparable baseline characteristics. At 6 months follow-up, stratified care had a small but significant benefit relative to usual care as seen from a mean difference in Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire scores of 0.7 (95% CI, 0.1-1.4), with a large, clinically important difference in the high risk group of 2.3 (95% CI, 0.8-3.9). Mean time off work was 50% shorter (4 vs 8 days, P = .03) and the proportion of patients given sickness certifications was 30% lower (9% vs 15%, P = .03) in the postintervention cohort. Health care cost savings were also observed. Stratified care for back pain implemented in family practice leads to significant improvements in patient disability outcomes

Efficacy and Safety of Insulin Glargine 300 U/mL Versus Insulin Glargine 100 U/mL in High-Risk and Low-Risk Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Stratified Using Common Clinical Performance Measures.

PubMed

Lingvay, Ildiko; Chao, Jason; Dalal, Mehul R; Meneghini, Luigi F

2017-05-01

To determine whether previously reported reductions in hypoglycemia associated with insulin glargine 300 U/mL (Gla-300) compared with insulin glargine 100 U/mL (Gla-100) are impacted by patient risk category in type 2 diabetes (T2D), clinical performance measures based on the Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) were applied to patient-level data from the EDITION 2 and EDITION 3 clinical trials that compared Gla-300 and Gla-100. In this post hoc analysis, patients were stratified as low risk (LR) if patients were <65 years old with no comorbidities derived from HEDIS (HbA1c target <7.0% [53 mmol/mol]), or as high risk (HR) if patients were either ≥65 years old or had one or more HEDIS-defined comorbidities (HbA1c target <8.0% [64 mmol/mol]). Primary endpoint was a composite of patients achieving HbA1c target without confirmed or severe hypoglycemia over 6 months in the different treatment groups in each of the EDITION trials. There was a statistically nonsignificant trend of more patients treated with Gla-300 achieving the composite endpoint compared with Gla-100 in both the LR and HR patient cohorts, regardless of prior insulin experience. A similar trend was observed for the composite endpoint of HbA1c target without nocturnal hypoglycemia. There is a consistent, nonsignificant trend suggesting that Gla-300 might reduce the burden of hypoglycemia compared with Gla-100 in patients with T2D irrespective of whether they are classed as LR or HR based on age- and National Committee for Quality Assurance Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set-derived comorbidities.

Fall prevention: is the STRATIFY tool the right instrument in Italian Hospital inpatient? A retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Castellini, Greta; Demarchi, Antonia; Lanzoni, Monica; Castaldi, Silvana

2017-09-15

Although several risk assessment tools are in use, uncertainties on their accuracy in detecting fall risk already exist. Choosing the most accurate tool for hospital inpatient is still a challenge for the organizations. We aimed to retrospectively assess the appropriateness of a fall risk prevention program with the STRATIFY assessment tool in detecting acute-care inpatient fall risk. Number of falls and near falls, occurred from January 2014 to March 2015, was collected through the incident reporting web-system implemented in the hospital's intranet. We reported whether the fall risk was assessed with the STRATIFY assessment tool and, if so, which was the judgement. Primary outcome was the proportion of inpatients identified as high risk of fall among inpatients who fell (True Positive Rate), and the proportion of inpatients identified as low-risk that experienced a fall howsoever (False Negative Rate). Characteristics of population and fall events were described among subgroups of low risk and high risk inpatients. We collected 365 incident reports from 40 hospital units, 349 (95.6%) were real falls and 16 (4.4%) were near falls. The fall risk assessment score at patient's admission had been reported in 289 (79%) of the overall incident reports. Thus, 74 (20.3%) fallers were actually not assessed with the STRATIFY, even though the majority of them presented risk recommended to be assessed. The True Positive Rate was 35.6% (n = 101, 95% CI 30% - 41.1%). The False Negative Rate was 64.4% (n = 183, 95% CI 58.9%-70%) of fallers, nevertheless they incurred in a fall. The STRATIFY mean score was 1.3 ± 1.4; the median was 1 (IQQ 0-2). The prevention program using only the STRATIFY tool was found to be not adequate to screen our inpatients population. The incorrect identification of patients' needs leads to allocate resources to erroneous priorities and to untargeted interventions, decreasing healthcare performance and quality.

Patient volume, staffing, and workload in relation to risk-adjusted outcomes in a random stratified sample of UK neonatal intensive care units: a prospective evaluation.

PubMed

Tucker, Janet

2002-01-12

UK recommendations suggest that large neonatal intensive-care units (NICUs) have better outcomes than small units, although this suggestion remains unproven. We assessed whether patient volume, staffing levels, and workload are associated with risk-adjusted outcomes, and with costs or staff wellbeing. 186 UK NICUs were stratified according to volume of patients, nursing provision, and neonatal consultant provision. Primary outcomes were hospital mortality, mortality or cerebral damage, and nosocomial bacteraemia. We studied 13515 infants of all birthweights consecutively admitted to 54 randomly selected NICUs. Multiple logistic regression analyses were done with every primary outcome as the dependent variable. Staff wellbeing and stress were assessed by anonymous mental health index (MHI)-5 questionnaires. Data were available for 13334 (99%) infants. High-volume NICUs treated the sickest infants and had highest crude mortality. Risk-adjusted mortality and mortality or cerebral damage were unrelated to patient volume or staffing provision; however, nosocomial bacteraemia was less frequent in NICUs with low neonatal consultant provision (odds ratio 0.65, 95% CI 0.43-0.98). Mortality was raised with increasing workload in all types of NICUs. Infants admitted at full capacity versus half capacity were about 50% more likely to die, but there was wide uncertainty around this estimate. Most staff had MHI-5 scores that suggested good mental health. The implications of this report for staffing policy, medicolegal risk management, and ethical practice remain to be tested. Centralisation of only the sickest infants could improve efficiency, provided that this does not create excessive workload for staff. Assessment of increased staffing levels that are closer to those in adult intensive care might be appropriate.

The Usefulness of the MEESSI Score for Risk Stratification of Patients With Acute Heart Failure at the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Miró, Òscar; Rosselló, Xavier; Gil, Víctor; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Llorens, Pere; Herrero, Pablo; Jacob, Javier; López-Grima, María Luisa; Gil, Cristina; Lucas Imbernón, Francisco Javier; Garrido, José Manuel; Pérez-Durá, María José; López-Díez, María Pilar; Richard, Fernando; Bueno, Héctor; Pocock, Stuart J

2018-06-11

The MEESSI scale stratifies acute heart failure (AHF) patients at the emergency department (ED) according to the 30-day mortality risk. We validated the MEESSI risk score in a new cohort of Spanish patients to assess its accuracy in stratifying patients by risk and to compare its performance in different settings. We included consecutive patients diagnosed with AHF in 30 EDs during January and February 2016. The MEESSI score was calculated for each patient. The c-statistic measured the discriminatory capacity to predict 30-day mortality of the full MEESSI model and secondary models. Further comparisons were made among subgroups of patients from university and community hospitals, EDs with high-, medium- or low-activity and EDs that recruited or not patients in the original MEESSI derivation cohort. We analyzed 4711 patients (university/community hospitals: 3811/900; high-/medium-/low-activity EDs: 2695/1479/537; EDs participating/not participating in the previous MEESSI derivation study: 3892/819). The distribution of patients according to the MEESSI risk categories was: 1673 (35.5%) low risk, 2023 (42.9%) intermediate risk, 530 (11.3%) high risk and 485 (10.3%) very high risk, with 30-day mortality of 2.0%, 7.8%, 17.9%, and 41.4%, respectively. The c-statistic for the full model was 0.810 (95%CI, 0.790-0.830), ranging from 0.731 to 0.785 for the subsequent secondary models. The discriminatory capacity of the MEESSI risk score was similar among subgroups of hospital type, ED activity, and original recruiter EDs. The MEESSI risk score successfully stratifies AHF patients at the ED according to the 30-day mortality risk, potentially helping clinicians in the decision-making process for hospitalizing patients. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U.

Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

PubMed Central

Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

Extent of Atypical Hyperplasia Stratifies Breast Cancer Risk in Two Independent Cohorts of Women

PubMed Central

Degnim, Amy C.; Dupont, William D.; Radisky, Derek C.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Frank, Ryan D.; Frost, Marlene H.; Winham, Stacey J.; Sanders, Melinda E.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Page, David L.; Hoskin, Tanya L.; Vachon, Celine M.; Ghosh, Karthik; Hieken, Tina J.; Denison, Lori A.; Carter, Jodi M.; Hartmann, Lynn C.; Visscher, Daniel W.

2016-01-01

Background Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have a substantially increased risk of breast cancer (BC). Here we report BC risk with AH extent and subtype in two separate cohorts. Methods All samples containing AH were included from two cohorts of benign breast disease, Mayo Clinic and Nashville. Histology review quantified the number of foci of atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) and atypical lobular hyperplasia (ALH). BC risk was stratified for number of AH foci within AH subtypes. Results The study included 708 Mayo and 466 Nashville AH subjects. In the Mayo Cohort, increasing foci of AH was associated with a significant increase in risk of BC, both for ADH (RR’s of 2.61, 5.21, and 6.36 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci, p=0.006 for linear trend) and for ALH (RR’s of 2.56, 3.50, and 6.79 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci, p=0.001 for linear trend). In the Nashville Cohort, RR’s of BC for ADH were 2.70, 5.17, and 15.06 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci respectively (p<0.001 for linear trend); for ALH, RR’s also increased but not significantly (2.61, 3.48, and 4.02, p=0.148). Combining both Mayo and Nashville samples, risk increased significantly for 1, 2, and 3+ foci: RR’s of 2.65, 5.19, and 8.94 for ADH (p<0.001), and 2.58, 3.49, and 4.97 for ALH (p=0.001). Conclusions In two independent cohort studies of benign breast disease, extent of atypia stratifies long-term breast cancer risk for ADH and ALH. PMID:27352219

Stratifying risk factors for multidrug-resistant pathogens in hospitalized patients coming from the community with pneumonia.

PubMed

Aliberti, Stefano; Di Pasquale, Marta; Zanaboni, Anna Maria; Cosentini, Roberto; Brambilla, Anna Maria; Seghezzi, Sonia; Tarsia, Paolo; Mantero, Marco; Blasi, Francesco

2012-02-15

 Not all risk factors for acquiring multidrug-resistant (MDR) organisms are equivalent in predicting pneumonia caused by resistant pathogens in the community. We evaluated risk factors for acquiring MDR bacteria in patients coming from the community who were hospitalized with pneumonia. Our evaluation was based on actual infection with a resistant pathogen and clinical outcome during hospitalization.  An observational, prospective study was conducted on consecutive patients coming from the community who were hospitalized with pneumonia. Data on admission and during hospitalization were collected. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate risk factors for acquiring MDR bacteria independently associated with the actual presence of a resistant pathogen and in-hospital mortality.  Among the 935 patients enrolled in the study, 473 (51%) had at least 1 risk factor for acquiring MDR bacteria on admission. Of all risk factors, hospitalization in the preceding 90 days (odds ratio [OR], 4.87 95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.90-12.4]; P = .001) and residency in a nursing home (OR, 3.55 [95% CI, 1.12-11.24]; P = .031) were independent predictors for an actual infection with a resistant pathogen. A score able to predict pneumonia caused by a resistant pathogen was computed, including comorbidities and risk factors for MDR. Hospitalization in the preceding 90 days and residency in a nursing home were also independent predictors for in-hospital mortality.  Risk factors for acquiring MDR bacteria should be weighted differently, and a probabilistic approach to identifying resistant pathogens among patients coming from the community with pneumonia should be embraced.

Primary surgery results in no survival benefit compared to primary radiation for oropharyngeal cancer patients stratified by high-risk human papilloma virus status.

PubMed

Lybak, Stein; Ljøkjel, Borghild; Haave, Hilde; Karlsdottir, Àsa; Vintermyr, Olav K; Aarstad, Hans Jørgen

2017-01-01

We changed the primary oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) treatment recommendation from primary radiation therapy (RT) to tumor surgery and neck dissection, followed by RT around the year 2000 with apparently improved survival. However, high-risk human papilloma virus (hr-HPV)-16-caused OPSCCs have increased during this period. Furthermore, hr-HPV+ OPSCC carry a better prognosis than hr-HPV-negative patients. We have, therefore, evaluated the 5-year survival in the period from 1992 to 1999 versus 2000 to 2008 stratified by hr-HPV tumor infection status. Ninety-six OPSCC patients were treated from 1992 to 1999 compared with 136 patients from 2000 to 2008. The 5-year disease-specific survival (DDS) and overall survival (OS) were recorded, while the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) scores were obtained from some of the cured patients. Thirty-eight (40 %) in the first period and 86 OPSCCs (63 %) in the second period were hr-HPV+. In the first period, 16 versus 62 patients in the last period were treated by neck dissection, primary tumor surgery, and RT. DSS among all the hr-HPV-negative patients in the first period was 51 versus 55 % in the second period, and the corresponding OS was 33 versus 31 %, respectively. The DSS among all the hr-HPV+ patients was 78 % in the first period versus 77 % in the second period, while the OS was 71 versus 69 %, respectively. The HRQoL scores among successfully treated patients were worse following surgery, plus RT than RT only. The hr-HPV-adjusted 5-year survival in OPSCC patients was similar between the two time periods. A decreased HRQoL was associated with surgical therapy, which indicates that hr-HPV+ OPSCC patients may be treated by primary RT followed by major surgery only if RT treatment fails.

Noninvasive Cardiovascular Risk Assessment of the Asymptomatic Diabetic Patient

PubMed Central

Budoff, Matthew J.; Raggi, Paolo; Beller, George A.; Berman, Daniel S.; Druz, Regina S.; Malik, Shaista; Rigolin, Vera H.; Weigold, Wm. Guy; Soman, Prem

2017-01-01

Increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes is well established; diabetes is associated with at least a 2-fold increased risk of coronary heart disease. Approximately two-thirds of deaths among persons with diabetes are related to cardiovascular disease. Previously, diabetes was regarded as a “coronary risk equivalent,” implying a high 10-year cardiovascular risk for every diabetes patient. Following the original study by Haffner et al., multiple studies from different cohorts provided varying conclusions on the validity of the concept of coronary risk equivalency in patients with diabetes. New guidelines have started to acknowledge the heterogeneity in risk and include different treatment recommendations for diabetic patients without other risk factors who are considered to be at lower risk. Furthermore, guidelines have suggested that further risk stratification in patients with diabetes is warranted before universal treatment. The Imaging Council of the American College of Cardiology systematically reviewed all modalities commonly used for risk stratification in persons with diabetes mellitus and summarized the data and recommendations. This document reviews the evidence regarding the use of noninvasive testing to stratify asymptomatic patients with diabetes with regard to coronary heart disease risk and develops an algorithm for screening based on available data. PMID:26846937

White Matter Hyperintensity Associations with Cerebral Blood Flow in Elderly Subjects Stratified by Cerebrovascular Risk.

PubMed

Bahrani, Ahmed A; Powell, David K; Yu, Guoquiang; Johnson, Eleanor S; Jicha, Gregory A; Smith, Charles D

2017-04-01

This study aims to add clarity to the relationship between deep and periventricular brain white matter hyperintensities (WMHs), cerebral blood flow (CBF), and cerebrovascular risk in older persons. Deep white matter hyperintensity (dWMH) and periventricular white matter hyperintensity (pWMH) and regional gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) blood flow from arterial spin labeling were quantified from magnetic resonance imaging scans of 26 cognitively normal elderly subjects stratified by cerebrovascular disease (CVD) risk. Fluid-attenuated inversion recovery images were acquired using a high-resolution 3-dimensional (3-D) sequence that reduced partial volume effects seen with slice-based techniques. dWMHs but not pWMHs were increased in patients at high risk of CVD; pWMHs but not dWMHs were associated with decreased regional cortical (GM) blood flow. We also found that blood flow in WM is decreased in regions of both pWMH and dWMH, with a greater degree of decrease in pWMH areas. WMHs are usefully divided into dWMH and pWMH regions because they demonstrate differential effects. 3-D regional WMH volume is a potentially valuable marker for CVD based on associations with cortical CBF and WM CBF. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Implementation Fidelity on Mortality Under a CD4-Stratified Timing Strategy for Antiretroviral Therapy in Patients With Tuberculosis.

PubMed

Patel, Monita R; Westreich, Daniel; Yotebieng, Marcel; Nana, Mbonze; Eron, Joseph J; Behets, Frieda; Van Rie, Annelies

2015-05-01

Among patients with tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus type 1, CD4-stratified initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended, with earlier ART in those with low CD4 counts. However, the impact of implementation fidelity to this recommendation is unknown. We examined a prospective cohort study of 395 adult patients diagnosed with tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus between August 2007 and November 2009 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo. ART was to be initiated after 1 month of tuberculosis treatment at a CD4 count of <100 cells/mm(3) or World Health Organization stage 4 (other than extrapulmonary tuberculosis) and after 2 months of tuberculosis treatment at a CD4 count of 100-350 cells/mm(3). We used the parametric g-formula to estimate the impact of implementation fidelity on 6-month mortality. Observed implementation fidelity was low (46%); 54% of patients either experienced delays in ART initiation or did not initiate ART, which could be avoided under perfect implementation fidelity. The observed mortality risk was 12.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.2, 15.7); under complete (counterfactual) implementation fidelity, the mortality risk was 7.8% (95% CI: 2.4, 12.3), corresponding to a risk reduction of 4.2% (95% CI: 0.3, 8.1) and a preventable fraction of 35.1% (95% CI: 2.9, 67.9). Strategies to achieve high implementation fidelity to CD4-stratified ART timing are needed to maximize survival benefit. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk of community-acquired pneumonia in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease stratified by smoking status: a population-based cohort study in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Braeken, Dionne Cw; Rohde, Gernot Gu; Franssen, Frits Me; Driessen, Johanna Hm; van Staa, Tjeerd P; Souverein, Patrick C; Wouters, Emiel Fm; de Vries, Frank

2017-01-01

Smoking increases the risk of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and is associated with the development of COPD. Until now, it is unclear whether CAP in COPD is due to smoking-related effects, or due to COPD pathophysiology itself. To evaluate the association between COPD and CAP by smoking status. In total, 62,621 COPD and 191,654 control subjects, matched by year of birth, gender and primary care practice, were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2005-2014). Incidence rates (IRs) were estimated by dividing the total number of CAP cases by the cumulative person-time at risk. Time-varying Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for CAP in COPD patients versus controls. HRs of CAP by smoking status were calculated by stratified analyses in COPD patients versus controls and within both subgroups with never smoking as reference. IRs of CAP in COPD patients (32.00/1,000 person-years) and controls (6.75/1,000 person-years) increased with age and female gender. The risk of CAP in COPD patients was higher than in controls (HR 4.51, 95% CI: 4.27-4.77). Current smoking COPD patients had comparable CAP risk (HR 0.92, 95% CI: 0.82-1.02) as never smoking COPD patients (reference), whereas current smoking controls had a higher risk (HR 1.23, 95% CI: 1.13-1.34) compared to never smoking controls. COPD patients have a fourfold increased risk to develop CAP, independent of smoking status. Identification of factors related with the increased risk of CAP in COPD is warranted, in order to improve the management of patients at risk.

Effect of low-dose aspirin on primary prevention of cardiovascular events in Japanese diabetic patients at high risk.

PubMed

Okada, Sadanori; Morimoto, Takeshi; Ogawa, Hisao; Sakuma, Mio; Soejima, Hirofumi; Nakayama, Masafumi; Sugiyama, Seigo; Jinnouchi, Hideaki; Waki, Masako; Doi, Naofumi; Horii, Manabu; Kawata, Hiroyuki; Somekawa, Satoshi; Soeda, Tsunenari; Uemura, Shiro; Saito, Yoshihiko

2013-01-01

Benefit of low-dose aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular events in diabetes remains controversial. The American Diabetes Association (ADA), the American Heart Association (AHA), and the American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF) recommend aspirin for high-risk diabetic patients: older patients with additional cardiovascular risk factors. We evaluated aspirin's benefit in Japanese diabetic patients stratified by cardiovascular risk. In the JPAD trial, we enrolled 2,539 Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes and no history of cardiovascular disease. We randomly assigned them to aspirin (81-100 mg daily) or no aspirin groups. The median follow-up period was 4.4 years. We stratified the patients into high-risk or low-risk groups, according to the US recommendation: age (older; younger) and coexisting cardiovascular risk factors. The risk factors included smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, family history of coronary artery disease, and proteinuria. Most of the patients were classified into the high-risk group, consisting of older patients with risk factors (n=1,804). The incidence of cardiovascular events was higher in this group, but aspirin did not reduce cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [HR], 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.58-1.17). In the low-risk group, consisting of older patients without risk factors and younger patients (n=728), aspirin did not reduce cardiovascular events (HR, 0.55; 95% CI: 0.23-1.21). These results were unchanged after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Low-dose aspirin is not beneficial in Japanese diabetic patients at high risk.

Postoperative Complications of Total Joint Arthroplasty in Obese Patients Stratified by BMI.

PubMed

Zusmanovich, Mikhail; Kester, Benjamin S; Schwarzkopf, Ran

2018-03-01

High body mass index (BMI) is associated with significant complications in patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty. Many studies have evaluated this trend, but few have looked at the rates of complications based on BMI as a continuous variable. The purpose of this study was to stratify obese patients into 3 BMI categories and evaluate their rates of complications and gauge whether transitioning from higher to lower BMI category lowers complication. Patients undergoing primary total joint arthroplasty were selected from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2008-2015 and arranged into 3 groups based on BMI: O1 (BMI 30-34.9 kg/m 2 ), O2 (BMI 35-39.9 kg/m 2 ), and O3 (BMI >40 kg/m 2 ). Thirty-day complications were recorded and evaluated utilizing univariate and multivariate analyses stratified by BMI. A total of 268,663 patients were identified. Patients with a BMI >30 kg/m 2 had more infectious and medical complications compared with nonobese patients. Furthermore, there were increased complications as the BMI categories increased. Patients with a BMI >40 kg/m 2 (O3) had longer operating times, length of stay, higher rates of readmissions, reoperations, deep venous thrombosis, renal insufficiency, superficial infections, deep infections, and wound dehiscence. These trends were present when comparing the O2 with O1 category as well. We have demonstrated increased rates of medical and surgical complications in obese patients. Furthermore, we demonstrated a stepwise increase in complication rates when transitioning to higher BMI groups. Based on our data, we believe that preoperative counseling and interventions to decrease BMI should be explored before offering elective surgery to obese patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systematic review of fall risk screening tools for older patients in acute hospitals.

PubMed

Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata; Bartolozzi, Francesco; Piredda, Michela; De Marinis, Maria Grazia

2015-06-01

To determine the most accurate fall risk screening tools for predicting falls among patients aged 65 years or older admitted to acute care hospitals. Falls represent a serious problem in older inpatients due to the potential physical, social, psychological and economic consequences. Older inpatients present with risk factors associated with age-related physiological and psychological changes as well as multiple morbidities. Thus, fall risk screening tools for older adults should include these specific risk factors. There are no published recommendations addressing what tools are appropriate for older hospitalized adults. Systematic review. MEDLINE, CINAHL and Cochrane electronic databases were searched between January 1981-April 2013. Only prospective validation studies reporting sensitivity and specificity values were included. Recommendations of the Cochrane Handbook of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews have been followed. Three fall risk assessment tools were evaluated in seven articles. Due to the limited number of studies, meta-analysis was carried out only for the STRATIFY and Hendrich Fall Risk Model II. In the combined analysis, the Hendrich Fall Risk Model II demonstrated higher sensitivity than STRATIFY, while the STRATIFY showed higher specificity. In both tools, the Youden index showed low prognostic accuracy. The identified tools do not demonstrate predictive values as high as needed for identifying older inpatients at risk for falls. For this reason, no tool can be recommended for fall detection. More research is needed to evaluate fall risk screening tools for older inpatients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using impedance cardiography with postural change to stratify patients with hypertension.

PubMed

DeMarzo, Arthur P

2011-06-01

Early detection of cardiovascular disease in patients with hypertension could initiate appropriate treatment to control blood pressure and prevent the progression of cardiovascular disease. The goal of this study was to show how impedance cardiography waveform analysis with postural change can be used to detect subclinical cardiovascular disease in patients with high blood pressure. Patients with high blood pressure had impedance cardiography data obtained in two positions, standing upright and supine. In 50 adults, impedance cardiography indicated that all patients had abnormal data, with 44 (88%) having multiple abnormalities. Impedance cardiography showed 32 (64%) had ventricular dysfunction, 48 (96%) had vascular load abnormalities, 34 (68%) had hemodynamic abnormalities, 2 (4%) had hypovolemia, and 3 (6%) had hypervolemia. Hypertensive patients have diverse cardiovascular abnormalities that can be quantified by impedance cardiography. By stratifying patients with ventricular, vascular, and hemodynamic abnormalities, treatment could be customized based on the abnormal underlying mechanisms with the potential to rapidly control blood pressure, prevent progression of cardiovascular disease, and possibly reverse remodeling.

Stratified aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index accurately predicts survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing curative liver resection.

PubMed

Yang, Hao-Jie; Jiang, Jing-Hang; Yang, Yu-Ting; Guo, Zhe; Li, Ji-Jia; Liu, Xuan-Han; Lu, Fei; Zeng, Feng-Hua; Ye, Jin-Song; Zhang, Ke-Lan; Chen, Neng-Zhi; Xiang, Bang-De; Li, Le-Qun

2017-03-01

The aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index has been reported to predict prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. This study examined the prognostic potential of stratified aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index for hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing curative liver resection. A total of 661 hepatocellular carcinoma patients were retrieved and the associations between aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index and clinicopathological variables and survivals (overall survival and disease-free survival) were analyzed. Higher aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index quartiles were significantly associated with poorer overall survival (p = 0.002) and disease-free survival (p = 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index to be an independent risk factor for overall survival (p = 0.018) and disease-free survival (p = 0.01). Patients in the highest aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index quartile were at 44% greater risk of death than patients in the first quartile (hazard ratio = 1.445, 95% confidence interval = 1.081 - 1.931, p = 0.013), as well as 49% greater risk of recurrence (hazard ratio = 1.49, 95% confidence interval = 1.112-1.998, p = 0.008). Subgroup analysis also showed aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index to be an independent predictor of poor overall survival and disease-free survival in patients positive for hepatitis B surface antigen or with cirrhosis (both p < 0.05). Similar results were obtained when aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index was analyzed as a dichotomous variable with cutoff values of 0.25 and 0.62. Elevated preoperative aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index may be independently associated with poor overall survival and disease-free survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients following curative resection.

Predictors of depressive symptoms in older Japanese primiparas at 1 month post-partum: A risk-stratified analysis.

PubMed

Iwata, Hiroko; Mori, Emi; Tsuchiya, Miyako; Sakajo, Akiko; Maehara, Kunie; Ozawa, Harumi; Morita, Akiko; Maekawa, Tomoko; Aoki, Kyoko; Tamakoshi, Koji

2016-01-01

Older maternal age has become more common in Japan. Studies suggest that older maternal age and primiparity are associated with post-partum depression. The present study aimed to identify predictors of post-partum depression in older Japanese primiparas at 1 month post-partum. Participants were 479 primiparas aged 35 years and over, drawn from a prospective cohort study. Data were collected using self-report questionnaires. Depression was measured with the Japanese version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was conducted on binary outcome variables of depression at 1 month post-partum, along with a stratified analysis based on the risk status of depression. Five predictors were identified: (i) the depression score during hospital stay; (ii) financial burden; (iii) dissatisfaction with appraisal support; (iv) physical burden in daily life; and (v) concerns about infant caretaking. Stratified analysis identified dissatisfaction with instrumental support in the low-risk group, and the Child-care Value Scale score as unique predictors in the high-risk group. These results highlight the importance of early assessment of depressive symptoms and the provision of continuous care. © 2015 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

The clinical and cost-effectiveness of stratified care for patients with sciatica: the SCOPiC randomised controlled trial protocol (ISRCTN75449581).

PubMed

Foster, Nadine E; Konstantinou, Kika; Lewis, Martyn; Ogollah, Reuben; Dunn, Kate M; van der Windt, Danielle; Beardmore, Ruth; Artus, Majid; Bartlam, Bernadette; Hill, Jonathan C; Jowett, Sue; Kigozi, Jesse; Mallen, Christian; Saunders, Benjamin; Hay, Elaine M

2017-04-26

Sciatica has a substantial impact on patients, and is associated with high healthcare and societal costs. Although there is variation in the clinical management of sciatica, the current model of care usually involves an initial period of 'wait and see' for most patients, with simple measures of advice and analgesia, followed by conservative and/or more invasive interventions if symptoms fail to resolve. A model of care is needed that does not over-treat those with a good prognosis yet identifies patients who do need more intensive treatment to help with symptoms, and return to everyday function including work. The aim of the SCOPiC trial (SCiatica Outcomes in Primary Care) is to establish whether stratified care based on subgrouping using a combination of prognostic and clinical information, with matched care pathways, is more effective than non-stratified care, for improving time to symptom resolution in patients consulting with sciatica in primary care. We will also assess the impact of stratified care on service delivery and evaluate its cost-effectiveness compared to non-stratified care. Multicentre, pragmatic, parallel arm randomised trial, with internal pilot, cost-effectiveness analysis and embedded qualitative study. We will recruit 470 adult patients with sciatica from general practices in England and Wales, over 24 months. Patients will be randomised to stratified care or non-stratified care, and treated in physiotherapy and spinal specialist services, in participating NHS services. The primary outcome is time to first resolution of sciatica symptoms, measured on a 6-point ordered categorical scale, collected using text messaging. Secondary outcomes include physical function, pain intensity, quality of life, work loss, healthcare use and satisfaction with treatment, and will be collected using postal questionnaires at 4 and 12-month follow-up. Semi-structured qualitative interviews with a subsample of participants and clinicians will explore the

Application of a fall screening algorithm stratified fall risk but missed preventive opportunities in community-dwelling older adults: a prospective study.

PubMed

Muir, Susan W; Berg, Katherine; Chesworth, Bert; Klar, Neil; Speechley, Mark

2010-01-01

Evaluate the ability of the American and British Geriatrics Society fall prevention guideline's screening algorithm to identify and stratify future fall risk in community-dwelling older adults. Prospective cohort of community-dwelling older adults (n = 117) aged 65 to 90 years. Fall history, balance, and gait measured during a comprehensive geriatric assessment at baseline. Falls data were collected monthly for 1 year. The outcomes of any fall and any injurious fall were evaluated. The algorithm stratified participants into 4 hierarchal risk categories. Fall risk was 33% and 68% for the "no intervention" and "comprehensive fall evaluation required" groups respectively. The relative risk estimate for falling comparing participants in the 2 intervention groups was 2.08 (95% CI 1.42-3.05) for any fall and 2.60 (95% Cl 1.53-4.42) for any injurious fall. Prognostic accuracy values were: sensitivity of 0.50 (95% Cl 0.36-0.64) and specificity of 0.82 (95% CI 0.70-0.90) for any fall; and sensitivity of 0.56 (95% CI 0.38-0.72) and specificity of 0.78 (95% Cl 0.67-0.86) for any injurious fall. The algorithm was able to identify and stratify fall risk for each fall outcome, though the values of prognostic accuracy demonstrate moderate clinical utility. The recommendations of fall evaluation for individuals in the highest risk groups appear supported though the recommendation of no intervention in the lowest risk groups may not address their needs for fall prevention interventions. Further evaluation of the algorithm is recommended to refine the identification of fall risk in community-dwelling older adults.

Impact of a decision aid about stratified ovarian cancer risk-management on women's knowledge and intentions: a randomised online experimental survey study.

PubMed

Meisel, Susanne F; Freeman, Maddie; Waller, Jo; Fraser, Lindsay; Gessler, Sue; Jacobs, Ian; Kalsi, Jatinderpal; Manchanda, Ranjit; Rahman, Belinda; Side, Lucy; Wardle, Jane; Lanceley, Anne; Sanderson, Saskia C

2017-11-16

Risk stratification using genetic and other types of personal information could improve current best available approaches to ovarian cancer risk reduction, improving identification of women at increased risk of ovarian cancer and reducing unnecessary interventions for women at lower risk. Amounts of information given to women may influence key informed decision-related outcomes, e.g. knowledge. The primary aim of this study was to compare informed decision-related outcomes between women given one of two versions (gist vs. extended) of a decision aid about stratified ovarian cancer risk-management. This was an experimental survey study comparing the effects of brief (gist) information with lengthier, more detailed (extended) information on cognitions relevant to informed decision-making about participating in risk-stratified ovarian cancer screening. Women with no personal history of ovarian cancer were recruited through an online survey company and randomised to view the gist (n = 512) or extended (n = 519) version of a website-based decision aid and completed an online survey. Primary outcomes were knowledge and intentions. Secondary outcomes included attitudes (values) and decisional conflict. There were no significant differences between the gist and extended conditions in knowledge about ovarian cancer (time*group interaction: F = 0.20, p = 0.66) or intention to participate in ovarian cancer screening based on genetic risk assessment (t(1029) = 0.43, p = 0.67). There were also no between-groups differences in secondary outcomes. In the sample overall (n = 1031), knowledge about ovarian cancer increased from before to after exposure to the decision aid (from 5.71 to 6.77 out of a possible 10: t = 19.04, p < 0.001), and 74% of participants said that they would participate in ovarian cancer screening based on genetic risk assessment. No differences in knowledge or intentions were found between women who viewed the gist version

Stress Perfusion Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging Effectively Risk Stratifies Diabetic Patients With Suspected Myocardial Ischemia.

PubMed

Heydari, Bobak; Juan, Yu-Hsiang; Liu, Hui; Abbasi, Siddique; Shah, Ravi; Blankstein, Ron; Steigner, Michael; Jerosch-Herold, Michael; Kwong, Raymond Y

2016-04-01

Diabetics remain at high risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality despite advancements in medical therapy. Noninvasive cardiac risk profiling is often more difficult in diabetics owing to the prevalence of silent ischemia with unrecognized myocardial infarction, reduced exercise capacity, nondiagnostic electrocardiographic changes, and balanced ischemia from diffuse epicardial coronary atherosclerosis and microvascular dysfunction. A consecutive cohort of 173 patients with diabetes mellitus (mean age, 61.7±11.9 years; 37% women) with suspected myocardial ischemia underwent stress perfusion cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. Patients were evaluated for adverse cardiac events after cardiac magnetic resonance imaging with mean follow-up time of 2.9±2.5 years. Mean hemoglobin A1c for the population was 7.9±1.8%. Primary end point was a composite of cardiac death and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Diabetics with no inducible ischemia (n=94) experienced an annualized event rate of 1.4% compared with 8.2% (P=0.0003) in those with inducible ischemia (n=79). Diabetics without late gadolinium enhancement or inducible ischemia had a low annual cardiac event rate (0.5% per year). The presence of inducible ischemia was the strongest unadjusted predictor (hazard ratio, 4.86; P<0.01) for cardiac death and nonfatal myocardial infarction. This association remained robust in adjusted stepwise multivariable Cox regression analysis (hazard ratio, 4.28; P=0.02). In addition, categorical net reclassification index using 5-year risk cutoffs of 5% and 10% resulted in reclassification of 43.4% of the diabetic cohort with net reclassification index of 0.38 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.56; P<0.0001). Stress perfusion cardiac magnetic resonance imaging provided independent prognostic utility and effectively reclassified risk in patients with diabetes mellitus referred for ischemic assessment. Further evaluation is required to determine whether a noninvasive imaging strategy with

Should studies of risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders be stratified by gender? Lessons from the 1998 Québec Health and Social Survey.

PubMed

Messing, Karen; Stock, Susan R; Tissot, France

2009-03-01

Several studies have reported male-female differences in the prevalence of symptoms of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), some arising from workplace exposure differences. The objective of this paper was to compare two strategies analyzing a single dataset for the relationships between risk factors and MSD in a population-based sample with a wide range of exposures. The 1998 Québec Health and Social Survey surveyed 11 735 respondents in paid work and reported "significant" musculoskeletal pain in 11 body regions during the previous 12 months and a range of personal, physical, and psychosocial risk factors. Five studies concerning risk factors for four musculoskeletal outcomes were carried out on these data. Each included analyses with multiple logistic regression (MLR) performed separately for women, men, and the total study population. The results from these gender-stratified and unstratified analyses were compared. In the unstratified MLR models, gender was significantly associated with musculoskeletal pain in the neck and lower extremities, but not with low-back pain. The gender-stratified MLR models identified significant associations between each specific musculoskeletal outcome and a variety of personal characteristics and physical and psychosocial workplace exposures for each gender. Most of the associations, if present for one gender, were also found in the total population. But several risk factors present for only one gender could be detected only in a stratified analysis, whereas the unstratified analysis added little information. Stratifying analyses by gender is necessary if a full range of associations between exposures and MSD is to be detected and understood.

Effectiveness of a two-step population-based osteoporosis screening program using FRAX: the randomized Risk-stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation (ROSE) study.

PubMed

Rubin, K H; Rothmann, M J; Holmberg, T; Høiberg, M; Möller, S; Barkmann, R; Glüer, C C; Hermann, A P; Bech, M; Gram, J; Brixen, K

2018-03-01

The Risk-stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation (ROSE) study investigated the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. We found no overall reduction in fractures from systematic screening compared to the current case-finding strategy. The group of moderate- to high-risk women, who accepted the invitation to DXA, seemed to benefit from the program. The purpose of the ROSE study was to investigate the effectiveness of a two-step population-based osteoporosis screening program using the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) derived from a self-administered questionnaire to select women for DXA scan. After the scanning, standard osteoporosis management according to Danish national guidelines was followed. Participants were randomized to either screening or control group, and randomization was stratified according to age and area of residence. Inclusion took place from February 2010 to November 2011. Participants received a self-administered questionnaire, and women in the screening group with a FRAX score ≥ 15% (major osteoporotic fractures) were invited to a DXA scan. Primary outcome was incident clinical fractures. Intention-to-treat analysis and two per-protocol analyses were performed. A total of 3416 fractures were observed during a median follow-up of 5 years. No significant differences were found in the intention-to-treat analyses with 34,229 women included aged 65-80 years. The per-protocol analyses showed a risk reduction in the group that underwent DXA scanning compared to women in the control group with a FRAX ≥ 15%, in regard to major osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, and all fractures. The risk reduction was most pronounced for hip fractures (adjusted SHR 0.741, p = 0.007). Compared to an office-based case-finding strategy, the two-step systematic screening strategy had no overall effect on fracture incidence. The two-step strategy seemed, however, to be beneficial in the group of women who were

Bleeding Risk Profile in Patients With Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease.

PubMed

Baumann, Frederic; Husmann, Marc; Benenati, James F; Katzen, Barry T; Del Conde, Ian

2016-06-01

To assess the bleeding risk profile using the HAS-BLED score in patients with symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD). A post hoc analysis was performed using data from a series of 115 consecutive patients (mean age 72.4±11.4 years; 68 men) with symptomatic PAD undergoing endovascular revascularization. The endpoint of the study was to assess bleeding risk using the 9-point HAS-BLED score, which was previously validated in cohorts of patients with and without atrial fibrillation. For the purpose of this study, the low (0-1), intermediate (2), and high-risk (≥3) scores were stratified as low/intermediate risk (HAS-BLED <3) vs high risk (HAS-BLED ≥3). The mean HAS-BLED score was 2.76±1.16; 64 (56%) patients had a HAS-BLED score ≥3.0. Patients with PAD Rutherford category 5/6 ischemia had an even higher mean HAS-BLED score (3.20±1.12). Logistic regression analysis revealed aortoiliac or femoropopliteal segment involvement, chronic kidney disease, as well as Rutherford category 5/6, to be independent risk factors associated with a HAS-BLED score ≥3. Patients with PAD, especially those presenting with Rutherford category 5/6 ischemic symptoms, have high HAS-BLED scores, suggesting increased risk for major bleeding. Prospective clinical validation of the HAS-BLED score in patients with PAD may help with the risk-benefit assessment when prescribing antithrombotic therapy. © The Author(s) 2016.

Validation of Preoperative Risk Grouping of the Selection of Patients Most Likely to Benefit From Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Before Radical Cystectomy.

PubMed

Moschini, Marco; Soria, Francesco; Klatte, Tobias; Wirth, Gregory J; Özsoy, Mehmet; Gust, Killian; Briganti, Alberto; Roupret, Morgan; Susani, Martin; Haitel, Andrea; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to validate the value of preoperative patient characteristics in prognosticating survival after radical cystectomy (RC) to guide treatment decisions regarding neoadjuvant systemic treatment. We evaluated a single cohort of 449 consecutive patients treated with RC for bladder cancer. Patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy were excluded from the study cohort (n = 24). Patients were stratified based on preoperative characteristics into 2 risk groups. The high-risk group included patients harboring clinically non-organ-confined disease (≥ cT3), hydroureteronephrosis, lymphovascular invasion, or variant histology (micropapillary, neuroendocrine, sarcomatoid, or plasmacytoid variants on transurethral resection). The low-risk group included patients with cT2 disease without any of the aforementioned features. Survival expectancies after surgery were evaluated using competing risk and Kaplan-Meier analyses. We identified 153 (44.6%) low-risk and 190 (55.4%) high-risk patients. The majority of high-risk patients had only 1 high-risk feature (n = 111; 58.4%); the most common high-risk feature was preoperative hydroureteronephrosis (n = 107; 56.3%). The majority of low-risk patients were upstaged at time of RC (n = 118; 70.6%), whereas a pathologic downstage occurred only in 27 high-risk patients (14.2%). Cancer-specific mortality-free rates at 5 years after RC were 77.4% versus 64.4% for low-risk versus high-risk patients, respectively. We confirm that preoperative risk features can stratify patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer into differential risk groups regarding survival. Decision-making regarding neoadjuvant systemic therapy administration is likely to be improved by integrating clinical stage, lymphovascular invasion, variant histology, and hydroureteronephrosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical research in small genomically stratified patient populations.

PubMed

Martin-Liberal, J; Rodon, J

2017-07-01

The paradigm of early drug development in cancer is shifting from 'histology-oriented' to 'molecularly oriented' clinical trials. This change can be attributed to the vast amount of tumour biology knowledge generated by large international research initiatives such as The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the use of next generation sequencing (NGS) techniques developed in recent years. However, targeting infrequent molecular alterations entails a series of special challenges. The optimal molecular profiling method, the lack of standardised biological thresholds, inter- and intra-tumor heterogeneity, availability of enough tumour material, correct clinical trials design, attrition rate, logistics or costs are only some of the issues that need to be taken into consideration in clinical research in small genomically stratified patient populations. This article examines the most relevant challenges inherent to clinical research in these populations. Moreover, perspectives from the Academia point of view are reviewed as well as initiatives to be taken in forthcoming years. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atrial fibrillation incrementally increases dementia risk across all CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VASc strata in patients receiving long-term warfarin.

PubMed

Graves, Kevin G; May, Heidi T; Jacobs, Victoria; Bair, Tami L; Stevens, Scott M; Woller, Scott C; Crandall, Brian G; Cutler, Michael J; Day, John D; Mallender, Charles; Osborn, Jeffrey S; Peter Weiss, J; Jared Bunch, T

2017-06-01

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at higher risk for developing dementia. Warfarin is a common therapy for the prevention of thromboembolism in AF, valve replacement, and thrombosis patients. The extent to which AF itself increases dementia risk remains unknown. A total 6030 patients with no history of dementia and chronically anticoagulated with warfarin were studied. Warfarin management was provided through a Clinical Pharmacy Anticoagulation Service. Patients were stratified by warfarin indication of AF (n=3015) and non-AF (n=3015) and matched by propensity score (±0.01). Patients were stratified by the congestive heart failure, hypertension, age >75 years, diabetes, stroke (CHADS 2 ) score calculated at the time of warfarin initiation and followed for incident dementia. The average age of the AF cohort was 69.3±11.2 years, and 52.7% were male; average age of non-AF cohort was 69.3±10.9 years, and 51.5% were male. Increasing CHADS 2 score was associated with increased dementia incidence, P trend=.004. When stratified by warfarin indication, AF patients had an increased risk of dementia incidence. After multivariable adjustment, AF patients continued to display a significantly increased risk of dementia when compared with non-AF patients across all CHADS 2 scores strata. In patients receiving long-term warfarin therapy, dementia risk increased with increasing CHADS 2 scores. However, the presence of AF was associated with higher rates of dementia across all CHADS 2 score strata. These data suggest that AF contributes to the risk of dementia and that this risk is not solely attributable to anticoagulant use. Dementia may be an end manifestation of a systemic disease state, and AF likely contributes to its progression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stratifying Parkinson's Patients With STN-DBS Into High-Frequency or 60 Hz-Frequency Modulation Using a Computational Model.

PubMed

Khojandi, Anahita; Shylo, Oleg; Mannini, Lucia; Kopell, Brian H; Ramdhani, Ritesh A

2017-07-01

High frequency stimulation (HFS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) is a well-established therapy for Parkinson's disease (PD), particularly the cardinal motor symptoms and levodopa induced motor complications. Recent studies have suggested the possible role of 60 Hz stimulation in STN-deep brain stimulation (DBS) for patients with gait disorder. The objective of this study was to develop a computational model, which stratifies patients a priori based on symptomatology into different frequency settings (i.e., high frequency or 60 Hz). We retrospectively analyzed preoperative MDS-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale III scores (32 indicators) collected from 20 PD patients implanted with STN-DBS at Mount Sinai Medical Center on either 60 Hz stimulation (ten patients) or HFS (130-185 Hz) (ten patients) for an average of 12 months. Predictive models using the Random Forest classification algorithm were built to associate patient/disease characteristics at surgery to the stimulation frequency. These models were evaluated objectively using leave-one-out cross-validation approach. The computational models produced, stratified patients into 60 Hz or HFS (130-185 Hz) with 95% accuracy. The best models relied on two or three predictors out of the 32 analyzed for classification. Across all predictors, gait and rest tremor of the right hand were consistently the most important. Computational models were developed using preoperative clinical indicators in PD patients treated with STN-DBS. These models were able to accurately stratify PD patients into 60 Hz stimulation or HFS (130-185 Hz) groups a priori, offering a unique potential to enhance the utilization of this therapy based on clinical subtypes. © 2017 International Neuromodulation Society.

Society for Vascular Surgery limb stage and patient risk correlate with outcomes in an amputation prevention program.

PubMed

Causey, Marlin W; Ahmed, Ayman; Wu, Bian; Gasper, Warren J; Reyzelman, Alex; Vartanian, Shant M; Hiramoto, Jade S; Conte, Michael S

2016-06-01

Clinical decision making and accurate outcomes comparisons in advanced limb ischemia require improved staging systems. The Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System (Wound extent, Ischemia, and foot Infection [WIfI]) was designed to stratify limb outcomes based on three major factors-wound extent, ischemia, and foot infection. The Project or Ex-Vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT) III (PIII) risk score was developed to stratify patients by expected amputation-free survival (AFS) after surgical revascularization. This study was designed to prospectively assess limb and patient-based staging for predicting outcomes of hospitalized patients in an amputation prevention program. This study undertook a retrospective analysis of prospectively gathered registry data of consecutive patients with limb-threatening conditions admitted to a fully integrated vascular/podiatry service over a 16-month period. Upon admission, limb risk was stratified using the WIfI system and patient risk was categorized using PIII classification. Patients were assessed for perioperative and postdischarge outcomes, and their relationship to staging at admission was analyzed. There were 174 threatened limbs (143 hospitalized patients) stratified by WIfI stage (1%-12%, 2%-28%, 3%-24%, 4%-28%, 5%-3%, unstaged-5%) and PIII risk (34% low, 49% moderate, and 17% high risk). Diabetes and end-stage renal disease were associated with WIfI stage (P = .006 and P = .018) and PIII risk (P = .003 and P < .001). Perioperative (30-day) events included 3% mortality, 8% major adverse cardiovascular events and 2.4% major amputation. There were 119 limbs (71%) that underwent revascularization, including 108 infrainguinal reconstructions (endovascular or open revascularization). Rate of revascularization increased with WIfI stage (P < .001), concomitant with the number of podiatric procedures, minor amputations, and initial hospital duration of stay

Tumour vasculature immaturity, oxidative damage and systemic inflammation stratify survival of colorectal cancer patients on bevacizumab treatment

PubMed Central

Martin, Petra; Biniecka, Monika; Ó'Meachair, Shane; Maguire, Aoife; Tosetto, Miriam; Nolan, Blathnaid; Hyland, John; Sheahan, Kieran; O'Donoghue, Diarmuid; Mulcahy, Hugh; Fennelly, David; O'Sullivan, Jacintha

2018-01-01

Despite treatment of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy, response rates are modest and there are no biomarkers available that will predict response. The aim of this study was to assess if markers associated with three interconnected cancer-associated biological processes, specifically angiogenesis, inflammation and oxidative damage, could stratify the survival outcome of this cohort. Levels of angiogenesis, inflammation and oxidative damage markers were assessed in pre-bevacizumab resected tumour and serum samples of mCRC patients by dual immunofluorescence, immunohistochemistry and ELISA. This study identified that specific markers of angiogenesis, inflammation and oxidative damage stratify survival of patients on this anti-angiogenic treatment. Biomarkers of immature tumour vasculature (% IMM, p=0.026, n=80), high levels of oxidative damage in the tumour epithelium (intensity of 8-oxo-dG in nuclear and cytoplasmic compartments, p=0.042 and 0.038 respectively, n=75) and lower systemic pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL6 and IL8, p=0.053 and 0.049 respectively, n=61) significantly stratify with median overall survival (OS). In summary, screening for a panel of biomarkers for high levels of immature tumour vasculature, high levels of oxidative DNA damage and low levels of systemic pro-inflammatory cytokines may be beneficial in predicting enhanced survival outcome following bevacizumab treatment for mCRC. PMID:29535825

Defining drug response for stratified medicine.

PubMed

Lonergan, Mike; Senn, Stephen J; McNamee, Christine; Daly, Ann K; Sutton, Robert; Hattersley, Andrew; Pearson, Ewan; Pirmohamed, Munir

2017-01-01

The premise for stratified medicine is that drug efficacy, drug safety, or both, vary between groups of patients, and biomarkers can be used to facilitate more targeted prescribing, with the aim of improving the benefit:risk ratio of treatment. However, many factors can contribute to the variability in response to drug treatment. Inadequate characterisation of the nature and degree of variability can lead to the identification of biomarkers that have limited utility in clinical settings. Here, we discuss the complexities associated with the investigation of variability in drug efficacy and drug safety, and how consideration of these issues a priori, together with standardisation of phenotypes, can increase both the efficiency of stratification procedures and identification of biomarkers with the potential for clinical impact. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular risk profile in patients with myelopathy associated with HTLV-1.

PubMed

Prado, Fabio Luís Silva do; Prado, Renata; Ladeia, Ana Marice Teixeira

HAM/TSP (HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis) is a slowly progressive disease, characterized by a chronic spastic paraparesis. It is not known if the disease carries an independent risk for cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cardiovascular risk profile related to HAM/TSP and compare it with the general population. This was a cross-sectional study, with a control group. HAM/TSP patients were evaluated using cardiovascular risk scores (ASCVD RISK, SCORE and Framingham) and inflammatory markers (ultrasensitive CRP and IL-6), and compared with a control group of healthy individuals. We also evaluated the correlation between cardiovascular risk and the functional status of patients with HAM/TSP evaluated by the FIM scale. Eighty percent of patients in this study were females, mean age of 51 years (11.3). The control group showed an increased cardiovascular event risk in 10 years when ASCVD was analyzed (cardiovascular risk ≥7.5% in 10 years seen in 43% of patients in the control group vs. 23% of patients with HAM/TSP; p=0.037). There was no difference in ultrasensitive CRP or IL-6 values between the groups, even when groups were stratified into low and high risk. There was no correlation between the functional status of HAM/TSP patients and the cardiovascular risk. In this study, the cardiovascular risk profile of patients with HAM/TSP was better than the risk of the control group. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE): a randomized prospective population-based study. Design and baseline characteristics.

PubMed

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Holmberg, Teresa; Rothmann, Mette Juel; Høiberg, Mikkel; Barkmann, Reinhard; Gram, Jeppe; Hermann, Anne Pernille; Bech, Mickael; Rasmussen, Ole; Glüer, Claus C; Brixen, Kim

2015-02-01

The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE) is a randomized prospective population-based study investigating the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. This paper reports the study design and baseline characteristics of the study population. 35,000 women aged 65-80 years were selected at random from the population in the Region of Southern Denmark and-before inclusion-randomized to either a screening group or a control group. As first step, a self-administered questionnaire regarding risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX(®) was issued to both groups. As second step, subjects in the screening group with a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures ≥15% were offered a DXA scan. Patients diagnosed with osteoporosis from the DXA scan were advised to see their GP and discuss pharmaceutical treatment according to Danish National guidelines. The primary outcome is incident clinical fractures as evaluated through annual follow-up using the Danish National Patient Registry. The secondary outcomes are cost-effectiveness, participation rate, and patient preferences. 20,904 (60%) women participated and included in the baseline analyses (10,411 in screening and 10,949 in control group). The mean age was 71 years. As expected by randomization, the screening and control groups had similar baseline characteristics. Screening for osteoporosis is at present not evidence based according to the WHO screening criteria. The ROSE study is expected to provide knowledge of the effectiveness of a screening strategy that may be implemented in health care systems to prevent fractures.

Age-Stratified Treatment Response Rates in Hospitalized Patients with Clostridium difficile Infection Treated with Metronidazole

PubMed Central

Pham, Vy P.; Luce, Andrea M.; Ruppelt, Sara C.; Wei, Wenjing; Aitken, Samuel L.; Musick, William L.; Roux, Ryan K.

2015-01-01

Consensus on the optimal treatment of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is rapidly changing. Treatment with metronidazole has been associated with increased clinical failure rates; however, the reasons for this are unclear. The purpose of this study was to assess age-related treatment response rates in hospitalized patients with CDI treated with metronidazole. This was a retrospective, multicenter cohort study of hospitalized patients with CDI. Patients were assessed for refractory CDI, defined as persistent diarrhea after 7 days of metronidazole therapy, and stratified by age and clinical characteristics. A total of 242 individuals, aged 60 ± 18 years (Charlson comorbidity index, 3.8 ± 2.4; Horn's index, 1.7 ± 1.0) were included. One hundred twenty-eight patients (53%) had severe CDI. Seventy patients (29%) had refractory CDI, a percentage that increased from 22% to 28% and to 37% for patients aged less than 50 years, for patients from 50 to 70 years, and for patients aged >70 years, respectively (P = 0.05). In multivariate analysis, Horn's index (odds ratio [OR], 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50 to 2.77; P < 0.001), severe CDI (OR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.15 to 4.41; P = 0.018), and continued use of antibiotics (OR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.30 to 5.39; P = 0.0072) were identified as significant predictors of refractory CDI. Age was not identified as an independent risk factor for refractory CDI. Therefore, hospitalized elderly patients with CDI treated with metronidazole had increased refractory CDI rates likely due to increased underlying severity of illness, severity of CDI, and concomitant antibiotic use. These results may help identify patients that may benefit from alternative C. difficile treatments other than metronidazole. PMID:26195522

Age-Stratified Treatment Response Rates in Hospitalized Patients with Clostridium difficile Infection Treated with Metronidazole.

PubMed

Pham, Vy P; Luce, Andrea M; Ruppelt, Sara C; Wei, Wenjing; Aitken, Samuel L; Musick, William L; Roux, Ryan K; Garey, Kevin W

2015-10-01

Consensus on the optimal treatment of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is rapidly changing. Treatment with metronidazole has been associated with increased clinical failure rates; however, the reasons for this are unclear. The purpose of this study was to assess age-related treatment response rates in hospitalized patients with CDI treated with metronidazole. This was a retrospective, multicenter cohort study of hospitalized patients with CDI. Patients were assessed for refractory CDI, defined as persistent diarrhea after 7 days of metronidazole therapy, and stratified by age and clinical characteristics. A total of 242 individuals, aged 60 ± 18 years (Charlson comorbidity index, 3.8 ± 2.4; Horn's index, 1.7 ± 1.0) were included. One hundred twenty-eight patients (53%) had severe CDI. Seventy patients (29%) had refractory CDI, a percentage that increased from 22% to 28% and to 37% for patients aged less than 50 years, for patients from 50 to 70 years, and for patients aged >70 years, respectively (P = 0.05). In multivariate analysis, Horn's index (odds ratio [OR], 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50 to 2.77; P < 0.001), severe CDI (OR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.15 to 4.41; P = 0.018), and continued use of antibiotics (OR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.30 to 5.39; P = 0.0072) were identified as significant predictors of refractory CDI. Age was not identified as an independent risk factor for refractory CDI. Therefore, hospitalized elderly patients with CDI treated with metronidazole had increased refractory CDI rates likely due to increased underlying severity of illness, severity of CDI, and concomitant antibiotic use. These results may help identify patients that may benefit from alternative C. difficile treatments other than metronidazole. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Can Non-HLA Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms Help Stratify Risk in TrialNet Relatives at Risk for Type 1 Diabetes?

PubMed

Steck, Andrea K; Xu, Ping; Geyer, Susan; Redondo, Maria J; Antinozzi, Peter; Wentworth, John M; Sosenko, Jay; Onengut-Gumuscu, Suna; Chen, Wei-Min; Rich, Stephen S; Pugliese, Alberto

2017-08-01

Genome-wide association studies identified >50 type 1 diabetes (T1D) associated non-human leukocyte antigens (non-HLA) loci. The purpose of this study was to assess the contribution of non-HLA single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to risk of disease progression. The TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study follows relatives of T1D patients for development of autoantibodies (Abs) and T1D. Using the Immunochip, we analyzed 53 diabetes-associated, non-HLA SNPs in 1016 Ab-positive, at-risk non-Hispanic white relatives. Effect of SNPs on the development of multiple Abs and T1D. Cox proportional analyses included all substantial non-HLA SNPs, HLA genotypes, relationship to proband, sex, age at initial screening, initial Ab type, and number. Factors involved in progression from single to multiple Abs included age at screening, relationship to proband, HLA genotypes, and rs3087243 (cytotoxic T lymphocyte antigen-4). Significant factors for diabetes progression included age at screening, Ab number, HLA genotypes, rs6476839 [GLIS family zinc finger 3 (GLIS3)], and rs3184504 [SH2B adaptor protein 3 (SH2B3)]. When glucose area under the curve (AUC) was included, factors involved in disease progression included glucose AUC, age at screening, Ab number, relationship to proband, HLA genotypes, rs6476839 (GLIS3), and rs7221109 (CCR7). In stratified analyses by age, glucose AUC, age at screening, sibling, HLA genotypes, rs6476839 (GLIS3), and rs4900384 (C14orf64) were significantly associated with progression to diabetes in participants <12 years old, whereas glucose AUC, sibling, rs3184504 (SH2B3), and rs4900384 (C14orf64) were significant in those ≥12. In conclusion, we identified five non-HLA SNPs associated with increased risk of progression from Ab positivity to disease that may improve risk stratification for prevention trials. Copyright © 2017 by the Endocrine Society

Initiating and optimizing acute therapy for migraine: the role of patient-centered stratified care.

PubMed

Diamond, Merle; Cady, Roger

2005-03-01

Migraine is a chronic, intermittently disabling condition that affects physical, mental, and social aspects of health-related quality of life. Because patients seeking assistance with migraine most often present to primary care providers, these healthcare professionals play critical roles in the diagnosis and treatment process. A comprehensive migraine management plan involves a partnership between the patient and healthcare professional where treatment goals and strategies are established. Elements of such a plan should include preventive strategies to reduce the frequency and effects of future attacks as well as the use of acute treatments to address the immediate need for relief during an attack. Approaches to prevention include education, lifestyle modification, and, often, appropriate medication. Many medications have been used for acute treatment. Nonspecific agents include nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), single or combination analgesics (sometimes including antiemetics or caffeine), and narcotics. Migraine-specific medications include ergot alkaloids and triptans (5-hydroxytryptamine(1B/1D) agonists). Various professional organizations have created guidelines to help providers in choosing appropriate management interventions. Clinical approaches to the patient with migraine include step care, whereby all patients begin on a simple or nonspecific treatment, stepping up to the next level of therapy if treatment is unsuccessful; or stratified care, whereby first-line therapy is tailored to the severity of the patient's pattern of headache. Studies have demonstrated that for more disabled headache patients, the stratified-care approach results in more robust headache response with less disability and greater cost-effectiveness than step care. Patient satisfaction studies demonstrate that the use of migraine-specific abortive medications (triptans) is associated with a higher satisfaction rate than over-the-counter preparations, NSAIDs, and

The Readmission Risk Flag: Using the Electronic Health Record to Automatically Identify Patients at Risk for 30-day Readmission

PubMed Central

Baillie, Charles A.; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C. William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A.

2015-01-01

Background Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. Objective To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system’s EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Design Retrospective and prospective cohort. Setting Healthcare system consisting of three hospitals. Patients All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. Interventions An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Measures Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Results Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a c-statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%) and c-statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. Conclusions An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. PMID:24227707

Prediction of 10-year coronary heart disease risk in Caribbean type 2 diabetic patients using the UKPDS risk engine.

PubMed

Ezenwaka, C E; Nwagbara, E; Seales, D; Okali, F; Hussaini, S; Raja, Bn; Jones-LeCointe, A; Sell, H; Avci, H; Eckel, J

2009-03-06

Primary prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) in diabetic patients should be based on absolute CHD risk calculation. This study was aimed to determine the levels of 10-year CHD risk in Caribbean type 2 diabetic patients using the diabetes specific United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine calculator. Three hundred and twenty-five (106 males, 219 females) type 2 diabetic patients resident in two Caribbean Islands of Tobago and Trinidad met the UKPDS risk engine inclusion criteria. Records of their sex, age, ethnicity, smoking habit, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and glycated haemoglobin were entered into the UKPDS risk engine calculator programme and the absolute 10-year CHD and stroke risk levels were computed. The 10-year CHD and stroke risks were statistically stratified into <15%, 15-30% and >30% CHD risk levels and differences between patients of African and Asian-Indian origin were compared. In comparison with patients in Tobago, type 2 diabetic patients in Trinidad, irrespective of gender, had higher proportion of 10-year CHD risk (10.4 vs. 23.6%, P<0.001) whereas the overall 10-year stroke risk prediction was higher in patients resident in Tobago (16.9 vs. 11.4%, P<0.001). Ethnicity-based analysis revealed that irrespective of gender, higher proportion of patients of Indian origin scored >30% of absolute 10-year CHD risk compared with patients of African descent (3.2 vs. 28.2%, P<0.001). The results of the study identified diabetic patients resident in Trinidad and patients of Indian origin as the most vulnerable groups for CHD. These groups of diabetic patients should have priority in primary or secondary prevention of coronary heart disease.

Internal validation of the prognostic index for spine metastasis (PRISM) for stratifying survival in patients treated with spinal stereotactic radiosurgery.

PubMed

Jensen, Garrett; Tang, Chad; Hess, Kenneth R; Bishop, Andrew J; Pan, Hubert Y; Li, Jing; Yang, James N; Tannir, Nizar M; Amini, Behrang; Tatsui, Claudio; Rhines, Laurence; Brown, Paul D; Ghia, Amol J

2017-01-01

We sought to validate the Prognostic Index for Spinal Metastases (PRISM), a scoring system that stratifies patients into subgroups by overall survival.Methods and materials: The PRISM was previously created from multivariate Cox regression with patients enrolled in prospective single institution trials of stereotactic spine radiosurgery (SSRS) for spinal metastasis. We assess model calibration and discrimination within a validation cohort of patients treated off-trial with SSRS for metastatic disease at the same institution. The training and validation cohorts consisted of 205 and 249 patients respectively. Similar survival trends were shown in the 4 PRISM. Survival was significantly different between PRISM subgroups (P<0.0001). C-index for the validation cohort was 0.68 after stratification into subgroups. We internally validated the PRISM with patients treated off-protocol, demonstrating that it can distinguish subgroups by survival, which will be useful for individualizing treatment of spinal metastases and stratifying patients for clinical trials.

The readmission risk flag: using the electronic health record to automatically identify patients at risk for 30-day readmission.

PubMed

Baillie, Charles A; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A

2013-12-01

Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system's EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Retrospective and prospective cohort. Healthcare system consisting of 3 hospitals. All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥ 2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a C statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%), and C statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Instruments for assessing the risk of falls in acute hospitalized patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a serious problem for hospitalized patients, reducing the duration and quality of life. It is estimated that over 84% of all adverse events in hospitalized patients are related to falls. Some fall risk assessment tools have been developed and tested in environments other than those for which they were developed with serious validity discrepancies. The aim of this review is to determine the accuracy of instruments for detecting fall risk and predicting falls in acute hospitalized patients. Methods Systematic review and meta-analysis. Main databases, related websites and grey literature were searched. Two blinded reviewers evaluated title and abstracts of the selected articles and, if they met inclusion criteria, methodological quality was assessed in a new blinded process. Meta-analyses of diagnostic ORs (DOR) and likelihood (LH) coefficients were performed with the random effects method. Forest plots were calculated for sensitivity and specificity, DOR and LH. Additionally, summary ROC (SROC) curves were calculated for every analysis. Results Fourteen studies were selected for the review. The meta-analysis was performed with the Morse (MFS), STRATIFY and Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scales. The STRATIFY tool provided greater diagnostic validity, with a DOR value of 7.64 (4.86 - 12.00). A meta-regression was performed to assess the effect of average patient age over 65 years and the performance or otherwise of risk reassessments during the patient’s stay. The reassessment showed a significant reduction in the DOR on the MFS (rDOR 0.75, 95% CI: 0.64 - 0.89, p = 0.017). Conclusions The STRATIFY scale was found to be the best tool for assessing the risk of falls by hospitalized acutely-ill adults. However, the behaviour of these instruments varies considerably depending on the population and the environment, and so their operation should be tested prior to implementation. Further studies are needed to investigate the effect of the

BCL-2 system analysis identifies high-risk colorectal cancer patients.

PubMed

Lindner, Andreas U; Salvucci, Manuela; Morgan, Clare; Monsefi, Naser; Resler, Alexa J; Cremona, Mattia; Curry, Sarah; Toomey, Sinead; O'Byrne, Robert; Bacon, Orna; Stühler, Michael; Flanagan, Lorna; Wilson, Richard; Johnston, Patrick G; Salto-Tellez, Manuel; Camilleri-Broët, Sophie; McNamara, Deborah A; Kay, Elaine W; Hennessy, Bryan T; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Van Schaeybroeck, Sandra; Prehn, Jochen H M

2017-12-01

The mitochondrial apoptosis pathway is controlled by an interaction of multiple BCL-2 family proteins, and plays a key role in tumour progression and therapy responses. We assessed the prognostic potential of an experimentally validated, mathematical model of BCL-2 protein interactions (DR_MOMP) in patients with stage III colorectal cancer (CRC). Absolute protein levels of BCL-2 family proteins were determined in primary CRC tumours collected from n=128 resected and chemotherapy-treated patients with stage III CRC. We applied DR_MOMP to categorise patients as high or low risk based on model outputs, and compared model outputs with known prognostic factors (T-stage, N-stage, lymphovascular invasion). DR_MOMP signatures were validated on protein of n=156 patients with CRC from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project. High-risk stage III patients identified by DR_MOMP had an approximately fivefold increased risk of death compared with patients identified as low risk (HR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4 to 17.9, p=0.02). The DR_MOMP signature ranked highest among all molecular and pathological features analysed. The prognostic signature was validated in the TCGA colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) cohort (HR 4.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 15.6, p=0.04). DR_MOMP also further stratified patients identified by supervised gene expression risk scores into low-risk and high-risk categories. BCL-2-dependent signalling critically contributed to treatment responses in consensus molecular subtypes 1 and 3, linking for the first time specific molecular subtypes to apoptosis signalling. DR_MOMP delivers a system-based biomarker with significant potential as a prognostic tool for stage III CRC that significantly improves established histopathological risk factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The Predictive Effects of Early Pregnancy Lipid Profiles and Fasting Glucose on the Risk of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Stratified by Body Mass Index.

PubMed

Wang, Chen; Zhu, Weiwei; Wei, Yumei; Su, Rina; Feng, Hui; Lin, Li; Yang, Huixia

2016-01-01

This study aimed at evaluating the predictive effects of early pregnancy lipid profiles and fasting glucose on the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in patients stratified by prepregnancy body mass index (p-BMI) and to determine the optimal cut-off values of each indicator for different p-BMI ranges. A retrospective system cluster sampling survey was conducted in Beijing during 2013 and a total of 5,265 singleton pregnancies without prepregnancy diabetes were included. The information for each participant was collected individually using questionnaires and medical records. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operator characteristics analysis were used in the analysis. Outcomes showed that potential markers for the prediction of GDM include early pregnancy lipid profiles (cholesterol, triacylglycerols, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratios [LDL-C/HDL-C], and triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratios [TG/HDL-C]) and fasting glucose, of which fasting glucose level was the most accurate indicator. Furthermore, the predictive effects and cut-off values for these factors varied according to p-BMI. Thus, p-BMI should be a consideration for the risk assessment of pregnant patients for GDM development.

Education and patient preferences for treating type 2 diabetes: a stratified discrete-choice experiment

PubMed Central

Janssen, Ellen M; Longo, Daniel R; Bardsley, Joan K; Bridges, John FP

2017-01-01

Purpose Diabetes is a chronic condition that is more prevalent among people with lower educational attainment. This study assessed the treatment preferences of patients with type 2 diabetes by educational attainment. Methods Patients with type 2 diabetes were recruited from a national online panel in the US. Treatment preferences were assessed using a discrete-choice experiment. Participants completed 16 choice tasks in which they compared pairs of treatment profiles composed of six attributes: A1c decrease, stable blood glucose, low blood glucose, nausea, treatment burden, and out-of-pocket cost. Choice models and willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates were estimated using a conditional logit model and were stratified by educational status. Results A total of 231 participants with a high school diploma or less education, 156 participants with some college education, and 165 participants with a college degree or more completed the survey. Participants with a college degree or more education were willing to pay more for A1c decreases ($58.84, standard error [SE]: 10.6) than participants who had completed some college ($28.47, SE: 5.53) or high school or less ($17.56, SE: 3.55) (p≤0.01). People with a college education were willing to pay more than people with high school or less to avoid nausea, low blood glucose events during the day/night, or two pills per day. Conclusion WTP for aspects of diabetes medication differed for people with a college education or more and a high school education or less. Advanced statistical methods might overcome limitations of stratification and advance understanding of preference heterogeneity for use in patient-centered benefit–risk assessments and personalized care approaches. PMID:29070940

Education and patient preferences for treating type 2 diabetes: a stratified discrete-choice experiment.

PubMed

Janssen, Ellen M; Longo, Daniel R; Bardsley, Joan K; Bridges, John Fp

2017-01-01

Diabetes is a chronic condition that is more prevalent among people with lower educational attainment. This study assessed the treatment preferences of patients with type 2 diabetes by educational attainment. Patients with type 2 diabetes were recruited from a national online panel in the US. Treatment preferences were assessed using a discrete-choice experiment. Participants completed 16 choice tasks in which they compared pairs of treatment profiles composed of six attributes: A1c decrease, stable blood glucose, low blood glucose, nausea, treatment burden, and out-of-pocket cost. Choice models and willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates were estimated using a conditional logit model and were stratified by educational status. A total of 231 participants with a high school diploma or less education, 156 participants with some college education, and 165 participants with a college degree or more completed the survey. Participants with a college degree or more education were willing to pay more for A1c decreases ($58.84, standard error [SE]: 10.6) than participants who had completed some college ($28.47, SE: 5.53) or high school or less ($17.56, SE: 3.55) ( p ≤0.01). People with a college education were willing to pay more than people with high school or less to avoid nausea, low blood glucose events during the day/night, or two pills per day. WTP for aspects of diabetes medication differed for people with a college education or more and a high school education or less. Advanced statistical methods might overcome limitations of stratification and advance understanding of preference heterogeneity for use in patient-centered benefit-risk assessments and personalized care approaches.

Delayed risk stratification, to include the response to initial treatment (surgery and radioiodine ablation), has better outcome predictivity in differentiated thyroid cancer patients.

PubMed

Castagna, Maria Grazia; Maino, Fabio; Cipri, Claudia; Belardini, Valentina; Theodoropoulou, Alexandra; Cevenini, Gabriele; Pacini, Furio

2011-09-01

After initial treatment, differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients are stratified as low and high risk based on clinical/pathological features. Recently, a risk stratification based on additional clinical data accumulated during follow-up has been proposed. To evaluate the predictive value of delayed risk stratification (DRS) obtained at the time of the first diagnostic control (8-12 months after initial treatment). We reviewed 512 patients with DTC whose risk assessment was initially defined according to the American (ATA) and European Thyroid Association (ETA) guidelines. At the time of the first control, 8-12 months after initial treatment, patients were re-stratified according to their clinical status: DRS. Using DRS, about 50% of ATA/ETA intermediate/high-risk patients moved to DRS low-risk category, while about 10% of ATA/ETA low-risk patients moved to DRS high-risk category. The ability of the DRS to predict the final outcome was superior to that of ATA and ETA. Positive and negative predictive values for both ATA (39.2 and 90.6% respectively) and ETA (38.4 and 91.3% respectively) were significantly lower than that observed with the DRS (72.8 and 96.3% respectively, P<0.05). The observed variance in predicting final outcome was 25.4% for ATA, 19.1% for ETA, and 62.1% for DRS. Delaying the risk stratification of DTC patients at a time when the response to surgery and radioiodine ablation is evident allows to better define individual risk and to better modulate the subsequent follow-up.

Risk Assessment Among Prostate Cancer Patients Receiving Primary Androgen Deprivation Therapy

PubMed Central

Cooperberg, Matthew R.; Hinotsu, Shiro; Namiki, Mikio; Ito, Kazuto; Broering, Jeanette; Carroll, Peter R.; Akaza, Hideyuki

2009-01-01

Purpose Prostate cancer epidemiology has been marked overall by a downward risk migration over time. However, in some populations, both in the United States and abroad, many men are still diagnosed with high-risk and/or advanced disease. Primary androgen deprivation therapy (PADT) is frequently offered to these patients, and disease risk prediction is not well-established in this context. We compared risk features between large disease registries from the United States and Japan, and aimed to build and validate a risk prediction model applicable to PADT patients. Methods Data were analyzed from 13,740 men in the United States community-based Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) registry and 19,265 men in the Japan Study Group of Prostate Cancer (J-CaP) database, a national Japanese registry of men receiving androgen deprivation therapy. Risk distribution was compared between the two datasets using three well-described multivariable instruments. A novel instrument (Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment [J-CAPRA]) was designed and validated to be specifically applicable to PADT patients, and more relevant to high-risk patients than existing instruments. Results J-CaP patients are more likely than CaPSURE patients to be diagnosed with high-risk features; 43% of J-CaP versus 5% of CaPSURE patients had locally advanced or metastatic disease that could not be stratified with the standard risk assessment tools. J-CAPRA—scored 0 to 12 based on Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen level, and clinical stage—predicts progression-free survival among PADT patients in J-CaP with a c-index of 0.71, and cancer-specific survival among PADT patients in CaPSURE with a c-index of 0.84. Conclusion The novel J-CAPRA is the first risk instrument developed and validated for patients undergoing PADT. It is applicable to those with both localized and advanced disease, and performs well in diverse populations. PMID:19667269

Management of metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients with poor-risk features: current status and future perspectives.

PubMed

Santoni, Matteo; De Tursi, Michele; Felici, Alessandra; Lo Re, Giovanni; Ricotta, Riccardo; Ruggeri, Enzo Maria; Sabbatini, Roberto; Santini, Daniele; Vaccaro, Vanja; Milella, Michele

2013-06-01

With seven agents approved for renal cell carcinoma within the past few years, there has undoubtedly been progress in treating this disease. However, patients with poor-risk features remain a challenging and difficult-to-treat population, with the mTOR inhibitor, temsirolimus, the only agent approved in the first-line setting. Phase III trial data are still lacking VEGF-pathway inhibitors in patients with poor prognostic features. Poor-risk patients need to be considered as a heterogeneous population. Further understanding of biomarkers can lead to a better selection of patients who may benefit the most from treatment and improvements in prognosis. The presence of poor Karnofsky scores and liver or CNS disease may affect the outcome of these patients much more than other identified factors. This consideration may provide the rationale to further stratify poor-risk patients further subgroups destined to receive either cure or palliation.

CFD-based Thrombotic Risk Assessment in Kawasaki Disease Patients with Coronary Artery Aneurysms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sengupta, Dibyendu; Kung, Ethan; Kahn, Andrew; Burns, Jane; Marsden, Alison

2012-11-01

Coronary aneurysms occur in 25% of untreated Kawasaki Disease (KD) patients and put patients at increased risk for myocardial infarction and sudden death. Clinical guidelines recommend using aneurysm diameter >8 mm as the arbitrary criterion for treating with anti-coagulation therapy. This study uses patient-specific modeling to non-invasively determine hemodynamic parameters and quantify thrombotic risk. Anatomic models were constructed from CT angiographic image data from 5 KD aneurysm patients and one normal control. CFD simulations were performed to obtain hemodynamic data including WSS and particle residence times (PRT). Thrombosis was clinically observed in 4/9 aneurysmal coronaries. Thrombosed vessels required twice as many cardiac cycles (mean 8.2 vs. 4.2) for particles to exit, and had lower mean WSS (1.3 compared to 2.8 dynes/cm2) compared to vessels with non-thrombosed aneurysms of similar max diameter. 1 KD patient in the cohort with acute thrombosis had diameter < 8 mm. Regions of low WSS and high PRT predicted by simulations correlated with regions of subsequent thrombus formation. Thrombotic risk stratification for KD aneurysms may be improved by incorporating both hemodynamic and geometric quantities. Current clinical guidelines to assess patient risk based only on aneurysm diameter may be misleading. Further prospective study is warranted to evaluate the utility of patient-specific modeling in risk stratifying KD patients with coronary aneurysms. NIH R21.

Sleep apnea in total joint arthroplasty patients and the role for cardiac biomarkers for risk stratification: an exploration of feasibility

PubMed Central

Lyons, M Melanie; Bhatt, Nitin Y; Kneeland-Szanto, Elizabeth; Keenan, Brendan T; Pechar, Joanne; Stearns, Branden; Elkassabany, Nabil M; Memtsoudis, Stavros G; Pack, Allan I; Gurubhagavatula, Indira

2016-01-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is highly prevalent in patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty (TJA) and is a major risk factor for postoperative cardiovascular complications and death. Recognizing this, the American Society of Anesthesiologists urges clinicians to implement special considerations in the perioperative care of OSA patients. However, as the volume of patients presenting for TJA increases, resources to implement these recommendations are limited. This necessitates mechanisms to efficiently risk stratify patients having OSA who may be susceptible to post-TJA cardiovascular complications. We explore the role of perioperative measurement of cardiac troponins (cTns) and brain natriuretic peptides (BNPs) in helping determine which OSA patients are at increased risk for post-TJA cardiovascular-related morbidity. PMID:26925513

Risk of Venous Thromboembolism and Operative Duration in Patients Undergoing Neurosurgical Procedures.

PubMed

Bekelis, Kimon; Labropoulos, Nicos; Coy, Shannon

2017-05-01

The association of operative duration with the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been quantified in neurosurgery. To investigate the association of surgical duration for several neurosurgical procedures and the incidence of VTE. We performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients who underwent neurosurgical procedures from 2005 to 2012 and were registered in the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Project registry. In order to control for confounding, we used multivariable regression models, and propensity score conditioning. During the study period, there were 94 747 patients, who underwent neurosurgical procedures, and met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 1358 (1.0%) developed VTE within 30 days postoperatively. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated an association of longer operative duration with higher 30-day incidence of VTE (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-1.25). Compared with procedures of moderate duration (third quintile, 40-60th percentile), patients undergoing the longest procedures (>80th percentile) had higher odds (OR, 3.15; 95% CI, 2.49-3.99) of developing VTE. The shortest procedures (<20th percentile) were associated with a decreased incidence of VTE (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.76) in comparison to those of moderate duration. The same associations were present in propensity score-adjusted models, and models stratified by subgroups of cranial, spinal, peripheral nerve, and carotid procedures. In a cohort of patients from a national prospective surgical registry, increased operative duration was associated with increased incidence of VTE for neurosurgical procedures. These results can be used by neurosurgeons to inform operative management, and to stratify patients with regard to VTE risk. Copyright © 2016 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

A novel dual-marker expression panel for easy and accurate risk stratification of patients with gastric cancer.

PubMed

Kanda, Mitsuro; Murotani, Kenta; Tanaka, Haruyoshi; Miwa, Takashi; Umeda, Shinichi; Tanaka, Chie; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Hayashi, Masamichi; Hattori, Norifumi; Suenaga, Masaya; Yamada, Suguru; Nakayama, Goro; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

2018-05-07

Development of specific biomarkers is necessary for individualized management of patients with gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to design a simple expression panel comprising novel molecular markers for precise risk stratification. Patients (n = 200) who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer were randomly assigned into learning and validation sets. Tissue mRNA expression levels of 15 candidate molecular markers were determined using quantitative PCR analysis. A dual-marker expression panel was created according to concordance index (C-index) values of overall survival for all 105 combinations of two markers in the learning set. The reproducibility and clinical significance of the dual-marker expression panel were evaluated in the validation set. The patient characteristics of the learning and validation sets were well balanced. The C-index values of combinations were significantly higher compared with those of single markers. The panel with the highest C-index (0.718) of the learning set comprised SYT8 and MAGED2, which clearly stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. The reproducibility of the panel was demonstrated in the validation set. High expression scores were significantly associated with larger tumor size, vascular invasion, lymph node metastasis, peritoneal metastasis, and advanced disease. The dual-marker expression panel provides a simple tool that clearly stratifies patients with gastric cancer into low-, intermediate-, and high risk after gastrectomy. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Utility of both Carotid Intima-media Thickness and Endothelial Function for Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Angina-like Symptoms

PubMed Central

Matsuzawa, Yasushi; Svedlund, Sara; Aoki, Tatsuo; Guddeti, Raviteja R.; Kwon, Taek-Geun; Cilluffo, Rebecca; Widmer, R.Jay.; Nelson, Rebecca E.; Lennon, Ryan J.; Lerman, Lilach O.; Gao, Sinsia; Ganz, Peter; Gan, Li-Ming; Lerman, Amir

2015-01-01

Background Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) is used widely to assess cardiovascular risk in patients with chest pain. The utility of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and endothelial function as assessed by reactive hyperemia-peripheral arterial tonometry index (RHI) in risk stratifying patients with angina-like symptom needs to be defined. We investigated whether addition of CIMT and RHI to Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FCVRS) and MPS improves comprehensive cardiovascular risk prediction in patients presenting with angina-like symptom. Methods We enrolled 343 consecutive patients with angina-like symptom suspected of having stable angina. MPS, CIMT, and RHI were performed and patients were followed for cardiovascular events for a median of 5.3 years (range 4.4-6.2). Patients were stratified by FCVRS and MPS. Results During the follow-up, 57 patients (16.6%) had cardiovascular events. Among patients without perfusion defect, low RHI was significantly associated with cardiovascular events in the intermediate and high FCVRS groups (Hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of RHI≤2.11 was 6.99 [1.34-128] in the intermediate FCVRS group and 6.08 [1.08-114] in the high FCVRS group). Furthermore, although MPS did not predict, only RHI predicted hard cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke) independent from FCVRS, and adding RHI to FCVRS improved net reclassification index (20.9%, 95% CI 0.8-41.1, p=0.04). Especially, RHI was significantly associated with hard cardiovascular events in the high FCVRS group (HR [95% CI] of RHI≤1.93 was 5.66 [1.54-36.4], p=0.007). Conclusions Peripheral endothelial function may improve discrimination in identifying at-risk patients for future cardiovascular events when added to FCVRS-MPS-based risk stratification. PMID:25918056

Risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) among male and female relatives of AAA patients.

PubMed

van de Luijtgaarden, Koen M; Rouwet, Ellen V; Hoeks, Sanne E; Stolker, Robert J; Verhagen, Hence Jm; Majoor-Krakauer, Danielle

2017-04-01

Sex affects the presentation, treatment, and outcomes of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Although AAAs are less prevalent in women, at least in the general population, women with an AAA have a poorer prognosis in comparison to men. Sex differences in the genetic predisposition for aneurysm disease remain to be established. In this study we investigated the familial risk of AAA for women compared to men. All living AAA patients included in a 2004-2012 prospective database were invited to the multidisciplinary vascular/genetics outpatient clinic between 2009 and 2012 for assessment of family history using detailed questionnaires. AAA risk for male and female relatives was calculated separately and stratified by sex of the AAA patients. Families of 568 AAA patients were investigated and 22.5% of the patients had at least one affected relative. Female relatives had a 2.8-fold and male relatives had a 1.7-fold higher risk than the estimated sex-specific population risk. Relatives of female AAA patients had a higher aneurysm risk than relatives of male patients (9.0 vs 5.9%, p = 0.022), corresponding to 5.5- and 2.0-fold increases in aneurysm risk in the female and male relatives, respectively. The risk for aortic aneurysm in relatives of AAA patients is higher than expected from population risk. The excess risk is highest for the female relatives of AAA patients and for the relatives of female AAA patients. These findings endorse targeted AAA family screening for female and male relatives of all AAA patients.

Factors Associated With Inadequate Effectiveness of a Multidisciplinary Disease Management Program in Heart Failure Patients Stratified by Galectin 3 Level.

PubMed

Liu, Min-Hui; Wang, Chao-Hung; Chiou, Ai-Fu; Yang, Ning-I; Kuo, Li-Tang

2016-07-21

This study investigated whether multidisciplinary disease management programs (MDPs) exert the same effects in heart failure (HF) patients across risk levels stratified by galectin-3 (Gal-3) level and what factors are associated with inadequate effectiveness of MDP. We used a longitudinal follow-up design based on a previous randomized trial. A total of 355 stabilized hospitalized HF patients were enrolled. The effects of MDP on death and HF-related rehospitalization were analyzed according to Gal-3 levels. During the 4-year follow-up, Gal-3 levels predicted mortality and composite events (p < .001). Multivariable analysis demonstrated the event-lowering effect of MDP (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.49, p = .001 for death and HR = 0.50, p < .001 for composite events). However, the effect of MDP was inadequate for those with high Gal-3 levels (≥17.9 ng/ml), whose 4-year composite event rate was 43% in the MDP arm. Further analysis showed that, in patients with Gal-3 ≥ 17.9 ng/ml, the independent factors associated with a high composite event rate were no MDP, older age, worse New York Heart Association functional class, no angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker use, higher predischarge natriuretic peptide levels, and wider QRS complexes. The effectiveness of MDP for HF patients at high risk was inadequate. Our findings identified the characteristics of these MDP nonresponders. Better integration of advanced care plans based on strategies guided by Gal-3 level is needed to improve care quality. © The Author(s) 2016.

Lung dose and the potential risk of death in postoperative radiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer: A study using the method of stratified grouping.

PubMed

Heo, Jaesung; Noh, O Kyu; Kim, Hwan-Ik; Chun, Mison; Cho, Oyeon; Park, Rae Woong; Yoon, Dukyong; Oh, Young-Taek

2018-04-19

Postoperative radiation therapy may have a detrimental effect on survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer. We investigated the association of the lung radiation dose with the risk of death in patients treated with postoperative radiation therapy. We analyzed 178 patients with non-small cell lung cancer who received postoperative radiation therapy. The mean lung dose was calculated from dose-volume data, and we categorized patients into the high and low lung dose groups using 2 different methods; (1) simple grouping using the median lung dose of all patients, and (2) stratified grouping using the median lung dose of each subgroup sharing the same confounders. We compared clinical variables, and survival between the high and low lung dose groups. In the simple grouping, there were no significant differences in survivals between the high and low lung dose groups. After stratification, the overall survival of low lung dose group was significantly longer than that of high lung dose group (5-year survival, 60.1% vs. 35.3%, p = 0.039). On multivariable analyses, the lung dose remained a significant prognostic factor for overall survival (hazard ratio, HR = 2.08, p = 0.019). The lung dose was associated with the risk of death in patients with non-small cell lung cancer having the same confounders. Further studies evaluating the risk of death according to the lung dose will be helpful to administer more precise and individualized postoperative radiation therapy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classification of drugs with different risk profiles.

PubMed

Saedder, Eva Aggerholm; Brock, Birgitte; Nielsen, Lars Peter; Bonnerup, Dorthe Krogsgaard; Lisby, Marianne

2015-08-01

A risk stratification approach is needed to identify patients at high risk of medication errors and a resulting high need of medication review. The aim of this study was to perform risk stratification (distinguishing between low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs) for drugs found to cause serious adverse reactions due to medication errors. The study employed a modified Delphi technique. Drugs from a systematic literature search were included into two rounds of a Delphi process. A panel of experts was asked to evaluate each identified drug's potential for harm and for clinically relevant drug-drug interactions on a scale from 1 (low risk) to 9 (high risk). A total of 36 experts were appointed to serve on the panel. Consensus was reached for 29/57 (51%) drugs or drug classes that cause harm, and for 32/57 (56%) of the drugs or drug classes that cause interactions. For the remaining drugs, a decision was made based on the median score. Two lists, one stating the drugs' potential for causing harm and the other stating clinically relevant drug-drug interactions, were stratified into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs. Based on a modified Delphi technique, we created two lists of drugs stratified into a low-risk, a medium-risk and a high-risk group of clinically relevant interactions or risk of harm to patients. The lists could be incorporated into a risk-scoring tool that stratifies the performance of medication reviews according to patients' risk of experiencing adverse reactions. none. not relevant.

Familial clustering in subgroups of gastric cancer stratified by histology, age group and location.

PubMed

Eto, K; Ohyama, S; Yamaguchi, T; Wada, T; Suzuki, Y; Mitsumori, N; Kashiwagi, H; Anazawa, S; Yanaga, K; Urashima, M

2006-09-01

To assess the risk of gastric cancer in a Japanese patient population with the disease by stratification with histology, age, tumour location and the association with family history of gastric or non-gastric tumours. A retrospective analysis of 1400 consecutive patients with gastric cancer and 13,467 age- and gender-matched controls from a pre-recorded database using conditional logistic regression models. Young patients (< or = 43 years of age) with gastric cancer of intestinal type had a strong association with family history of gastric cancer in first degree-relatives (OR=12.5). Moreover, when a history of gastric cancer was observed in both parents, there was an increased risk of gastric cancer intestinal type (OR=7.8), more commonly in the proximal and mid-stomach. In contrast, there was an increased risk of diffuse-type cancer when both parents suffered non-gastric cancers (OR=2.1). These data suggest that the degree of familial clustering differ in gastric cancer subgroups stratified by histology, age, and stomach location in this Japanese population.

Evaluation of a Stratified National Breast Screening Program in the United Kingdom: An Early Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Gray, Ewan; Donten, Anna; Karssemeijer, Nico; van Gils, Carla; Evans, D Gareth; Astley, Sue; Payne, Katherine

2017-09-01

To identify the incremental costs and consequences of stratified national breast screening programs (stratified NBSPs) and drivers of relative cost-effectiveness. A decision-analytic model (discrete event simulation) was conceptualized to represent four stratified NBSPs (risk 1, risk 2, masking [supplemental screening for women with higher breast density], and masking and risk 1) compared with the current UK NBSP and no screening. The model assumed a lifetime horizon, the health service perspective to identify costs (£, 2015), and measured consequences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Multiple data sources were used: systematic reviews of effectiveness and utility, published studies reporting costs, and cohort studies embedded in existing NBSPs. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis. The base-case analysis, supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis, suggested that the risk stratified NBSPs (risk 1 and risk-2) were relatively cost-effective when compared with the current UK NBSP, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £16,689 per QALY and £23,924 per QALY, respectively. Stratified NBSP including masking approaches (supplemental screening for women with higher breast density) was not a cost-effective alternative, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £212,947 per QALY (masking) and £75,254 per QALY (risk 1 and masking). When compared with no screening, all stratified NBSPs could be considered cost-effective. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness were discount rate, natural history model parameters, mammographic sensitivity, and biopsy rates for recalled cases. A key assumption was that the risk model used in the stratification process was perfectly calibrated to the population. This early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis provides indicative evidence for decision makers to understand the key drivers of costs and QALYs for exemplar stratified NBSP. Copyright

Cancer Risk among Patients with Myotonic Muscular Dystrophy

PubMed Central

Gadalla, Shahinaz M; Lund, Marie; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Gørtz, Sanne; Mueller, Christine M; Moxley, Richard T; Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y; Björkholm, Magnus; Shebl, Fatma M; Hilbert, James E; Landgren, Ola; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Melbye, Mads; Greene, Mark H

2012-01-01

Context Myotonic muscular dystrophy (MMD) is an autosomal dominant multisystem neuromuscular disorder characterized by unstable nucleotide repeat expansions. Case reports have suggested that MMD patients may be at increased risk of malignancy, putative risks which have never been quantified. Objective To quantitatively evaluate cancer risk in patients with MMD, overall, and by sex and age. Design, Setting, and Participants We identified 1,658 patients with an MMD discharge diagnosis in the Swedish Inpatient Hospital or Danish Patient Discharge Registries between 1977 and 2008. We linked these patients to their corresponding cancer registry. Patients were followed from date of first MMD-related inpatient or outpatient contact, to first cancer diagnosis, death, emigration, or completion of cancer registration. Main Outcome Measures Risks of all cancers combined, and by anatomic site, stratified by sex and age. Results 104 patients with an inpatient or outpatient discharge diagnosis of MMD developed cancer during post-discharge follow-up. This corresponds to an observed cancer rate of 73.4/10,000 person-years in MMD versus an expected rate of 36.9/10,000 in the general Swedish and Danish populations combined (SIR =2.0, 95% CI =1.6–2.4). Specifically, we observed significant excess risks of cancers of the endometrium (observed rate=16.1/10,000 person-years: SIR=7.6, 95%CI=4.0–13.2), brain (observed rate=4.9/10,000 person-years: SIR=5.3, 95%CI=2.3–10.4), ovary (observed rate=10.3/10,000 person-years: SIR=5.2, 95% CI=2.3–10.2), and colon (observed rate=7.1/10,000 person-years: SIR=2.9, 95%CI=1.5–5.1). Cancer risks were similar in females and males after excluding genital organ tumors (SIR=1.9, 95% CI=1.4–2.5 vs. 1.8, 95% CI=1.3–2.5, respectively, p-heterogeneity=0.81; observed rates=64.5 and 47.7/10,000 person-years in women and men, respectively), The same pattern of cancer excess was observed first in the Swedish, and then in the Danish cohorts, which

Cardiovascular risk of patients with gout seen at rheumatology clinics following a structured assessment.

PubMed

Andrés, Mariano; Bernal, José Antonio; Sivera, Francisca; Quilis, Neus; Carmona, Loreto; Vela, Paloma; Pascual, Eliseo

2017-07-01

Gout-associated cardiovascular (CV) risk relates to comorbidities and crystal-led inflammation. The aim was to estimate the CV risk by prediction tools in new patients with gout and to assess whether ultrasonographic carotid changes are present in patients without high CV risk. Cross-sectional study. Consecutive new patients with crystal-proven gout underwent a structured CV consultation, including CV events, risk factors and two risk prediction tools-the Systematic COronary Evaluation (SCORE) and the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). CV risk was stratified according to current European guidelines. Carotid ultrasound (cUS) was performed in patients with less than very high CV risk. The presence of carotid plaques was studied depending on the SCORE and FHS by the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating curves. 237 new patients with gout were recruited. CV stratification by scores showed a predominance of very high (95 patients, 40.1%) and moderate (72 patients, 30.5%) risk levels. cUS was performed in 142 patients, finding atheroma plaques in 66 (46.5%, 95% CI 37.8 to 54.2). Following cUS findings, patients classified as very high risk increased from 40.1% up to 67.9% (161/237 patients). SCORE and FHS predicted moderately (AUC 0.711 and 0.683, respectively) the presence of atheroma plaques at cUS. The majority of patients presenting with gout may be at very high CV risk, indicating the need for initiating optimal prevention strategies at this stage. Risk prediction tools appear to underestimate the presence of carotid plaque in patients with gout. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient: augmenting clinical suicide risk assessment with structured instruments.

PubMed

Homaifar, Beeta; Matarazzo, Bridget; Wortzel, Hal S

2013-09-01

This column is the second in a series presenting a model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient. As discussed in the first part of the series, the model involves several elements including augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. This column explores in more detail how to augment clinical risk assessment with structured instruments. Unstructured clinical interviews have the potential to miss important aspects of suicide risk assessment. By augmenting the free-form clinical interview with structured instruments that demonstrate reliability and validity, a more nuanced and multifaceted approach to suicide risk assessment is achieved. Incorporating structured instruments into practice also serves a medicolegal function, since these instruments may become a living part of the medical record, establishing baseline levels of suicidal thoughts and behaviors and facilitating future clinical determinations regarding safety needs. We describe several instruments used in a multidisciplinary suicide consultation service, each of which has demonstrated relevance to suicide risk assessment and screening, ease of administration, and strong psychometric properties. In addition, we emphasize the importance of viewing suicide risk assessment as an ongoing process rather than as a singular event. Finally, we discuss special considerations in the evolving practice of risk assessment.

Risk Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhotic Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuan-Qing; Peng, Li-Jun; Cao, Yi-Rong; Zeng, Zhi-Ping; Wu, Yu-Jing; Shi, Hong; Cheng, Shi-Yao; Wang, Ji-Yao; Friedman, Scott L; Sninsky, John J; Guo, Jin-Sheng

2016-09-01

To investigate the clinical and genetic risk factors associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Nine hundred forty-nine Chinese Han patients with CHB were studied, including noncirrhotic patients without HCC (N = 234), cirrhotic patients without (N = 281) and with HCC (N = 434). Patients were genotyped for 10 candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-ligase detection reaction (LDR) method. By multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for Child-Pugh scores, noneffective antiviral treatment, drinking history, family history of HCC, and age ≥50 years old were associated with HCC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 5.923, 2.456, 2.241, 1.955, respectively). Sixty-two of 170 cirrhotic patients who achieved sustained virological suppression by antiviral treatment developed HCC, with fatty liver disease, family history of HCC, and family history of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection as the risk factors (OR = 11.646, 3.339, 2.537, respectively). The SNPs associated with HCC risk in patients with cirrhosis and CHB were rs11536889 in TLR4 and rs2853744 in SPP1. Polymorphisms of TLR4 rs2149356, AP3S2 rs2290351, STXBP5L rs2169302, MLEC rs7976497, and SOCS3 rs4969168 were associated with HCC risk in specific stratified analyses with gender, age, and drinking history in the cirrhotic patients. Inadequate antiviral treatment, family history of HCC, drinking history, and age ≥50 years old are risk factors for HCC. Sustained suppression of HBV does not eliminate the risk of HCC. Specific host genetic factors may impact HCC development in Han Chinese cirrhotic patients with CHB, including SNPs in TLR4, SPP1, AP3S2, STXBP5L, MLEC, and SOCS3, which warrant further validation in additional cohorts.

Comparison of the ACC/AHA and Framingham algorithms to assess cardiovascular risk in HIV-infected patients.

PubMed

Pinto Neto, Lauro Ferreira da Silva; Dias, Fernanda Rezende; Bressan, Flavia Feres; Santos, Carolina Rocio Oliveira

The aim of this study was to compare the predictions of Framingham cardiovascular (CV) risk score (FRS) and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) risk score in an HIV outpatient clinic in the city of Vitoria, Espirito Santo, Brazil. In a cross-sectional study 341 HIV infected patients over 40 years old consecutively recruited were interviewed. Cohen's kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement between the two algorithms. 61.3% were stratified as low risk by Framingham score, compared with 54% by ACC/AHA score (Spearman correlation 0.845; p<0.000). Only 26.1% were classified as cardiovascular high risk by Framingham compared to 46% by ACC/AHA score (Kappa=0.745; p<0.039). Only one out of eight patients had cardiovascular high risk by Framingham at the time of a myocardial infarction event registered up to five years before the study period. Both cardiovascular risk scores but especially Framingham underestimated high-risk patients in this HIV-infected population. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Risk for femoral fractures in Parkinson's disease patients with and without severe functional impairment.

PubMed

Benzinger, Petra; Rapp, Kilian; Maetzler, Walter; König, Hans-Helmut; Jaensch, Andrea; Klenk, Jochen; Büchele, Gisela

2014-01-01

Impaired balance is a major problem in patients with idiopathic Parkinson's disease (PD) resulting in an increased risk of falls and fall-related fractures. Most studies which analyzed the risk of femoral fractures in patients with idiopathic PD were performed either in specialized centers or excluded very frail patients. The current study used a large population-based dataset in order to analyze the risk of femoral fractures in patients with idiopathic PD. Data from more than 880.000 individuals aged 65 years or older and insured between 2004 and 2009 at a large German health insurance company were used for the analyses. Persons with idiopathic PD were identified by the dispensing of Parkinson-specific medication and by hospital diagnoses, if available. People without PD served as the reference group. Incident femoral fractures were obtained from hospital diagnoses. Analyses were stratified by gender and information on severe functional impairment (care need) as provided by reimbursement claims. Compared with the reference group, persons with idiopathic PD had a more than doubled risk to sustain a femoral fracture. The risk was higher in men (HR = 2.61; 95%-CI: 2.28-2.98) than in women (HR = 1.79; 95%-CI: 1.66-1.94). The increased risk was only observed in people without severe functional impairment. The sensitivity analysis using a refined definition of idiopathic PD patients yielded similar results. The findings confirm the increased risk of femoral fractures in patients with idiopathic PD. The relative risk is particularly high in male PD patients and in patients without severe functional impairment.

Developing a tool for nurses to assess risk of infection in pediatric oncology patients in China: a modified Delphi study.

PubMed

Zhou, Yufeng; Cui, Yan; Wang, Hong; Wang, Fang; Lu, Chao; Shen, Yan

2016-09-01

Infections are identified as the most common preventable cause of death in pediatric oncology patients. Assessing and stratifying risk of infections are essential to prevent infection in these patients. To date, no tool can fulfill this demand in China. This study aimed to develop a nursing work-based and Chinese-specific tool for pediatric nurses to assess risk of infection in oncology patients. This research was a modified Delphi study. Based on a literature review, a 37-item questionnaire rating on a 0-5 scale was developed. Twenty-four experts from 8 hospitals in 6 provinces of China were consulted for three rounds. Consensus for each item in the first round was defined as: the rating mean was>3 and the coefficient of variation (CV) was<0.5. Consensus for each item in the second round was defined as CV<0.3. Consensus among experts was defined as: P value of Kendall's coefficient of concordance ( W )<0.05. After three rounds of consultation, a two-part tool was developed: the Immune Status Scale (ISS) and the Checklist of Risk Factors of Infection (CRFI). There were 5 items in the ISS and 14 in the CRFI. Based on the ISS score, nurses could stratify children into the low-risk and high-risk groups. For high-risk children, nurses should screen risk factors of infection every day by the CRFI, and twice weekly for low-risk children. Further study is needed to verify this tool's efficacy. © 2016 the Journal of Biomedical Research. All rights reserved.

Quantifying risk and assessing outcome in cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Higgins, T L

1998-06-01

Quality improvement, research, and reporting of outcome results can be stratified by preoperative risk by using a logistic regression equation or scores to correct for multiple risk factors. The more than 30-fold mortality differences between lowest and highest risk patients make it critical to stratify outcome results by patient severity. Probabilities are not predictions, however, and caution must be exercised when applying scores to individuals. Outcome assessment will grow in its importance to professionals, initially in the guise of quality reporting and improvement, but increasingly as a tool for risk assessment, patient counseling, and directing therapeutic decisions based on more complete information about patient subgroups. Physicians may be called on for recommendations in choosing systems for their hospitals and communities. Therefore, it is important to have an understanding of how such systems are developed, what factors indicate adequate performance of a system, and how such systems of risk stratification should be applied in practice.

Stratifying empiric risk of schizophrenia among first degree relatives using multiple predictors in two independent Indian samples.

PubMed

Bhatia, Triptish; Gettig, Elizabeth A; Gottesman, Irving I; Berliner, Jonathan; Mishra, N N; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit L; Deshpande, Smita N

2016-12-01

Schizophrenia (SZ) has an estimated heritability of 64-88%, with the higher values based on twin studies. Conventionally, family history of psychosis is the best individual-level predictor of risk, but reliable risk estimates are unavailable for Indian populations. Genetic, environmental, and epigenetic factors are equally important and should be considered when predicting risk in 'at risk' individuals. To estimate risk based on an Indian schizophrenia participant's family history combined with selected demographic factors. To incorporate variables in addition to family history, and to stratify risk, we constructed a regression equation that included demographic variables in addition to family history. The equation was tested in two independent Indian samples: (i) an initial sample of SZ participants (N=128) with one sibling or offspring; (ii) a second, independent sample consisting of multiply affected families (N=138 families, with two or more sibs/offspring affected with SZ). The overall estimated risk was 4.31±0.27 (mean±standard deviation). There were 19 (14.8%) individuals in the high risk group, 75 (58.6%) in the moderate risk and 34 (26.6%) in the above average risk (in Sample A). In the validation sample, risks were distributed as: high (45%), moderate (38%) and above average (17%). Consistent risk estimates were obtained from both samples using the regression equation. Familial risk can be combined with demographic factors to estimate risk for SZ in India. If replicated, the proposed stratification of risk may be easier and more realistic for family members. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Risk of colectomy in patients with ulcerative colitis under thiopurine treatment.

PubMed

Cañas-Ventura, Alex; Márquez, Lucia; Ricart, Elena; Domènech, Eugeni; Gisbert, Javier P; García-Sanchez, Valle; Marín-Jiménez, Ignacio; Rodriguez-Moranta, Francisco; Gomollón, Fernando; Calvet, Xavier; Merino, Olga; Garcia-Planella, Esther; Vázquez-Romero, Narcis; Esteve, Maria; Iborra, Marisa; Gutiérrez, Ana; Vera, Maribel; Andreu, Montserrat

2014-10-01

Little is known about the risk factors of colectomy in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) under thiopurine treatment. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and the predictive risk factors of colectomy in an extensive cohort of patients with UC treated with thiopurines in Spain. Among 5753 UC patients, we identified those diagnosed between 1980 and 2009 and treated with azathioprine or mercaptopurine (AZA/MP). We analyzed the age at diagnosis, familial history of IBD, extraintestinal manifestations (EIMs), disease extent, smoking status and treatment requirements (AZA/MP, cyclosporine (CsA) or anti-TNFα). Colectomies for dysplasia or cancer were excluded. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression were performed. Results were reported as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CI. Among the 1334 cases included, 119 patients (8.9%) required colectomy after a median time of 26 months (IQR 12-42) after AZA/MP initiation. Independent predictors of colectomy were: Extensive UC (HR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1-2.6), EIMs (HR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.0-2.4), need for antiTNFα (HR 2.3, 95% CI: 1.5-3.4) and need for CsA (HR 2.4, 95% CI: 1.6-3.7). Patients requiring early introduction of AZA/MP had an increased risk of colectomy with a HR of 4.9 (95% CI: 3.2-7.8) when AZA/MP started in the first 33 months after UC diagnosis. Nearly one-tenth of patients with UC under thiopurines require colectomy. Extensive UC, EIMs, need for CsA or anti-TNFα ever and an early need for AZA/MP treatment were associated with a higher risk of colectomy. These risk factors of colectomy could help to stratify risk in further controlled studies in UC. Copyright © 2014 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anti-microbial resistance stratified by risk factor among Escherichia coli strains isolated from the urinary tract at a rural clinic in Central India.

PubMed

Chatterjee, B; Kulathinal, S; Bhargava, A; Jain, Y; Kataria, R

2009-01-01

The failure of empirical therapy is frequently observed, even in community-acquired urinary tract infections. We, therefore, conducted a prospective, clinic-based study in 2004-2005 to document anti-microbial resistance rates and correlate them with possible risk factors to assist empirical decision-making. Symptomatic patients with pyuria underwent urine culture. Isolates were identified using standard methods and anti-microbial resistance was determined by disk-diffusion. Ultrasonography was used to detect complicating factors. Patients were stratified by the presence of complicating factors and history of invasive procedures for comparison of resistance rates. STATISTICAL METHOD USED: Chi-square or Fisher exact tests, as appropriate. There were 156 E. coli isolates, of which 105 were community-acquired. Twenty-three community-acquired isolates were from patients with complicating factors while 82 were from patients without any. Fifty-one isolates were from patients who had recently undergone invasive procedures on the urinary tract. Thirty-two community-acquired isolates from reproductive-age women without apparent complicating factors had resistance rates of 50% or above against tetracyclines, Co-trimoxazole, aminopenicillins, Nalidixic acid, Ciprofloxacin and 1 st generation cephalosporins. Resistance rates were significantly higher among isolates from patients subjected to invasive procedures, except against Co-trimoxazole, tetracyclines and Amikacin. High rates of anti-microbial resistance in community-acquired uropathogens have made antimicrobial sensitivity testing necessary even in a rural, primary-care setting.

Health-related quality of life in adult dermatitis patients stratified by filaggrin genotype.

PubMed

Heede, Nina G; Thyssen, Jacob P; Thuesen, Betina H; Linneberg, Allan; Szecsi, Pal B; Stender, Steen; Johansen, Jeanne D

2017-03-01

Information concerning health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and comorbidities of adult dermatitis patients stratified by loss-of-function mutations in the filaggrin gene (FLG) is limited. To investigate HRQoL, skin symptoms and comorbidities in adult FLG mutation carriers. This cross-sectional study included patients diagnosed with atopic dermatitis and/or hand eczema (n = 520). Patients completed questionnaires about dermatitis, skin symptoms, HRQoL, and comorbidities, including actinic keratosis, and atopic and mental disorders. FLG mutations (R501X, 2282del4, and R2447X) were identified in 16.9% of patients, and were significantly associated not only with atopic dermatitis, but also independently with skin fissures on the fingers and heels, and self-reported actinic keratosis. Although FLG mutations were significantly associated with reduced HRQoL, as measured by use of the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI), no association with self-reported anxiety or depression was identified. Notably, the highest median DLQI score, reflecting greater impairment, was reported by patients with both FLG mutations and atopic dermatitis. Overall, 19.7% of patients with both atopic dermatitis and FLG mutations reported a 'large or extremely large' impact on their lives; this represents twice the prevalence seen in patients with atopic dermatitis and wild-type FLG (9.6%). Patients with both atopic dermatitis and common FLG mutations are more frequently affected by reduced HRQoL. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Patient Navigator Intervention to Reduce Hospital Readmissions among High-Risk Safety-Net Patients: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Balaban, Richard B; Galbraith, Alison A; Burns, Marguerite E; Vialle-Valentin, Catherine E; Larochelle, Marc R; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2015-07-01

Evidence-based interventions to reduce hospital readmissions may not generalize to resource-constrained safety-net hospitals. To determine if an intervention by patient navigators (PNs), hospital-based Community Health Workers, reduces readmissions among high risk, low socioeconomic status patients. Randomized controlled trial. General medicine inpatients having at least one of the following readmission risk factors: (1) age ≥60 years, (2) any in-network inpatient admission within the past 6 months, (3) length of stay ≥3 days, (4) admission diagnosis of heart failure, or (5) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The analytic sample included 585 intervention patients and 925 controls. PNs provided coaching and assistance in navigating the transition from hospital to home through hospital visits and weekly telephone outreach, supporting patients for 30 days post-discharge with discharge preparation, medication management, scheduling of follow-up appointments, communication with primary care, and symptom management. The primary outcome was in-network 30-day hospital readmissions. Secondary outcomes included rates of outpatient follow-up. We evaluated outcomes for the entire cohort and stratified by patient age >60 years (425 intervention/584 controls) and ≤60 years (160 intervention/341 controls). Overall, 30-day readmission rates did not differ between intervention and control patients. However, the two age groups demonstrated marked differences. Intervention patients >60 years showed a statistically significant adjusted absolute 4.1% decrease [95% CI: -8.0%, -0.2%] in readmission with an increase in 30-day outpatient follow-up. Intervention patients ≤60 years showed a statistically significant adjusted absolute 11.8% increase [95% CI: 4.4%, 19.0%] in readmission with no change in 30-day outpatient follow-up. A patient navigator intervention among high risk, safety-net patients decreased readmission among older patients while increasing readmissions

Stratifying type 2 diabetes cases by BMI identifies genetic risk variants in LAMA1 and enrichment for risk variants in lean compared to obese cases.

PubMed

Perry, John R B; Voight, Benjamin F; Yengo, Loïc; Amin, Najaf; Dupuis, Josée; Ganser, Martha; Grallert, Harald; Navarro, Pau; Li, Man; Qi, Lu; Steinthorsdottir, Valgerdur; Scott, Robert A; Almgren, Peter; Arking, Dan E; Aulchenko, Yurii; Balkau, Beverley; Benediktsson, Rafn; Bergman, Richard N; Boerwinkle, Eric; Bonnycastle, Lori; Burtt, Noël P; Campbell, Harry; Charpentier, Guillaume; Collins, Francis S; Gieger, Christian; Green, Todd; Hadjadj, Samy; Hattersley, Andrew T; Herder, Christian; Hofman, Albert; Johnson, Andrew D; Kottgen, Anna; Kraft, Peter; Labrune, Yann; Langenberg, Claudia; Manning, Alisa K; Mohlke, Karen L; Morris, Andrew P; Oostra, Ben; Pankow, James; Petersen, Ann-Kristin; Pramstaller, Peter P; Prokopenko, Inga; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Rayner, William; Roden, Michael; Rudan, Igor; Rybin, Denis; Scott, Laura J; Sigurdsson, Gunnar; Sladek, Rob; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Vivequin, Sidonie; Weedon, Michael N; Wright, Alan F; Hu, Frank B; Illig, Thomas; Kao, Linda; Meigs, James B; Wilson, James F; Stefansson, Kari; van Duijn, Cornelia; Altschuler, David; Morris, Andrew D; Boehnke, Michael; McCarthy, Mark I; Froguel, Philippe; Palmer, Colin N A; Wareham, Nicholas J; Groop, Leif; Frayling, Timothy M; Cauchi, Stéphane

2012-05-01

Common diseases such as type 2 diabetes are phenotypically heterogeneous. Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes, but patients vary appreciably in body mass index. We hypothesized that the genetic predisposition to the disease may be different in lean (BMI<25 Kg/m²) compared to obese cases (BMI≥30 Kg/m²). We performed two case-control genome-wide studies using two accepted cut-offs for defining individuals as overweight or obese. We used 2,112 lean type 2 diabetes cases (BMI<25 kg/m²) or 4,123 obese cases (BMI≥30 kg/m²), and 54,412 un-stratified controls. Replication was performed in 2,881 lean cases or 8,702 obese cases, and 18,957 un-stratified controls. To assess the effects of known signals, we tested the individual and combined effects of SNPs representing 36 type 2 diabetes loci. After combining data from discovery and replication datasets, we identified two signals not previously reported in Europeans. A variant (rs8090011) in the LAMA1 gene was associated with type 2 diabetes in lean cases (P = 8.4×10⁻⁹, OR = 1.13 [95% CI 1.09-1.18]), and this association was stronger than that in obese cases (P = 0.04, OR = 1.03 [95% CI 1.00-1.06]). A variant in HMG20A--previously identified in South Asians but not Europeans--was associated with type 2 diabetes in obese cases (P = 1.3×10⁻⁸, OR = 1.11 [95% CI 1.07-1.15]), although this association was not significantly stronger than that in lean cases (P = 0.02, OR = 1.09 [95% CI 1.02-1.17]). For 36 known type 2 diabetes loci, 29 had a larger odds ratio in the lean compared to obese (binomial P = 0.0002). In the lean analysis, we observed a weighted per-risk allele OR = 1.13 [95% CI 1.10-1.17], P = 3.2×10⁻¹⁴. This was larger than the same model fitted in the obese analysis where the OR = 1.06 [95% CI 1.05-1.08], P = 2.2×10⁻¹⁶. This study provides evidence that stratification of type 2 diabetes cases by BMI may help identify

Stratifying Type 2 Diabetes Cases by BMI Identifies Genetic Risk Variants in LAMA1 and Enrichment for Risk Variants in Lean Compared to Obese Cases

PubMed Central

Perry, John R. B.; Voight, Benjamin F.; Yengo, Loïc; Amin, Najaf; Dupuis, Josée; Ganser, Martha; Grallert, Harald; Navarro, Pau; Li, Man; Qi, Lu; Steinthorsdottir, Valgerdur; Scott, Robert A.; Almgren, Peter; Arking, Dan E.; Aulchenko, Yurii; Balkau, Beverley; Benediktsson, Rafn; Bergman, Richard N.; Boerwinkle, Eric; Bonnycastle, Lori; Burtt, Noël P.; Campbell, Harry; Charpentier, Guillaume; Collins, Francis S.; Gieger, Christian; Green, Todd; Hadjadj, Samy; Hattersley, Andrew T.; Herder, Christian; Hofman, Albert; Johnson, Andrew D.; Kottgen, Anna; Kraft, Peter; Labrune, Yann; Langenberg, Claudia; Manning, Alisa K.; Mohlke, Karen L.; Morris, Andrew P.; Oostra, Ben; Pankow, James; Petersen, Ann-Kristin; Pramstaller, Peter P.; Prokopenko, Inga; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Rayner, William; Roden, Michael; Rudan, Igor; Rybin, Denis; Scott, Laura J.; Sigurdsson, Gunnar; Sladek, Rob; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Vivequin, Sidonie; Weedon, Michael N.; Wright, Alan F.; Hu, Frank B.; Illig, Thomas; Kao, Linda; Meigs, James B.; Wilson, James F.; Stefansson, Kari; van Duijn, Cornelia; Altschuler, David; Morris, Andrew D.; Boehnke, Michael; McCarthy, Mark I.; Froguel, Philippe; Palmer, Colin N. A.; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Groop, Leif

2012-01-01

Common diseases such as type 2 diabetes are phenotypically heterogeneous. Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes, but patients vary appreciably in body mass index. We hypothesized that the genetic predisposition to the disease may be different in lean (BMI<25 Kg/m2) compared to obese cases (BMI≥30 Kg/m2). We performed two case-control genome-wide studies using two accepted cut-offs for defining individuals as overweight or obese. We used 2,112 lean type 2 diabetes cases (BMI<25 kg/m2) or 4,123 obese cases (BMI≥30 kg/m2), and 54,412 un-stratified controls. Replication was performed in 2,881 lean cases or 8,702 obese cases, and 18,957 un-stratified controls. To assess the effects of known signals, we tested the individual and combined effects of SNPs representing 36 type 2 diabetes loci. After combining data from discovery and replication datasets, we identified two signals not previously reported in Europeans. A variant (rs8090011) in the LAMA1 gene was associated with type 2 diabetes in lean cases (P = 8.4×10−9, OR = 1.13 [95% CI 1.09–1.18]), and this association was stronger than that in obese cases (P = 0.04, OR = 1.03 [95% CI 1.00–1.06]). A variant in HMG20A—previously identified in South Asians but not Europeans—was associated with type 2 diabetes in obese cases (P = 1.3×10−8, OR = 1.11 [95% CI 1.07–1.15]), although this association was not significantly stronger than that in lean cases (P = 0.02, OR = 1.09 [95% CI 1.02–1.17]). For 36 known type 2 diabetes loci, 29 had a larger odds ratio in the lean compared to obese (binomial P = 0.0002). In the lean analysis, we observed a weighted per-risk allele OR = 1.13 [95% CI 1.10–1.17], P = 3.2×10−14. This was larger than the same model fitted in the obese analysis where the OR = 1.06 [95% CI 1.05–1.08], P = 2.2×10−16. This study provides evidence that stratification of type 2 diabetes cases by BMI may help identify

Community vulnerability and stratified risk: Hegemonic masculinity, socioeconomic status, and HIV/AIDS in a sex work community in Kampala, Uganda.

PubMed

Schmidt-Sane, Megan M

2018-01-29

This article examines the social patterning of health, economic uncertainty, hegemonic masculinity, and vulnerability among men who live and work in a low-income sex work community in Kampala, Uganda. This problematises the notion that vulnerable communities are homogenous, in demographics, economic status, and risk. This article draws on ethnographic data collected in 2016, including semi-structured interviews and participant observation. This article uses a stratified risk framework to describe the central finding of this study, which is that men's experience in Kataba is characterised by a struggle to fulfil the provider role that constitutes a core aspect of their socially ascribed gender role. In a context of economic scarcity, men's lives are fraught with strain and this intersects with other forms of risk. Finally, by focusing on community vulnerability rather than individual risk, this work contributes to theories of gender and sex work, and informs HIV/AIDS praxis.

Logic Learning Machine creates explicit and stable rules stratifying neuroblastoma patients

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Neuroblastoma is the most common pediatric solid tumor. About fifty percent of high risk patients die despite treatment making the exploration of new and more effective strategies for improving stratification mandatory. Hypoxia is a condition of low oxygen tension occurring in poorly vascularized areas of the tumor associated with poor prognosis. We had previously defined a robust gene expression signature measuring the hypoxic component of neuroblastoma tumors (NB-hypo) which is a molecular risk factor. We wanted to develop a prognostic classifier of neuroblastoma patients' outcome blending existing knowledge on clinical and molecular risk factors with the prognostic NB-hypo signature. Furthermore, we were interested in classifiers outputting explicit rules that could be easily translated into the clinical setting. Results Shadow Clustering (SC) technique, which leads to final models called Logic Learning Machine (LLM), exhibits a good accuracy and promises to fulfill the aims of the work. We utilized this algorithm to classify NB-patients on the bases of the following risk factors: Age at diagnosis, INSS stage, MYCN amplification and NB-hypo. The algorithm generated explicit classification rules in good agreement with existing clinical knowledge. Through an iterative procedure we identified and removed from the dataset those examples which caused instability in the rules. This workflow generated a stable classifier very accurate in predicting good and poor outcome patients. The good performance of the classifier was validated in an independent dataset. NB-hypo was an important component of the rules with a strength similar to that of tumor staging. Conclusions The novelty of our work is to identify stability, explicit rules and blending of molecular and clinical risk factors as the key features to generate classification rules for NB patients to be conveyed to the clinic and to be used to design new therapies. We derived, through LLM, a set of four

Logic Learning Machine creates explicit and stable rules stratifying neuroblastoma patients.

PubMed

Cangelosi, Davide; Blengio, Fabiola; Versteeg, Rogier; Eggert, Angelika; Garaventa, Alberto; Gambini, Claudio; Conte, Massimo; Eva, Alessandra; Muselli, Marco; Varesio, Luigi

2013-01-01

Neuroblastoma is the most common pediatric solid tumor. About fifty percent of high risk patients die despite treatment making the exploration of new and more effective strategies for improving stratification mandatory. Hypoxia is a condition of low oxygen tension occurring in poorly vascularized areas of the tumor associated with poor prognosis. We had previously defined a robust gene expression signature measuring the hypoxic component of neuroblastoma tumors (NB-hypo) which is a molecular risk factor. We wanted to develop a prognostic classifier of neuroblastoma patients' outcome blending existing knowledge on clinical and molecular risk factors with the prognostic NB-hypo signature. Furthermore, we were interested in classifiers outputting explicit rules that could be easily translated into the clinical setting. Shadow Clustering (SC) technique, which leads to final models called Logic Learning Machine (LLM), exhibits a good accuracy and promises to fulfill the aims of the work. We utilized this algorithm to classify NB-patients on the bases of the following risk factors: Age at diagnosis, INSS stage, MYCN amplification and NB-hypo. The algorithm generated explicit classification rules in good agreement with existing clinical knowledge. Through an iterative procedure we identified and removed from the dataset those examples which caused instability in the rules. This workflow generated a stable classifier very accurate in predicting good and poor outcome patients. The good performance of the classifier was validated in an independent dataset. NB-hypo was an important component of the rules with a strength similar to that of tumor staging. The novelty of our work is to identify stability, explicit rules and blending of molecular and clinical risk factors as the key features to generate classification rules for NB patients to be conveyed to the clinic and to be used to design new therapies. We derived, through LLM, a set of four stable rules identifying a new

Pretreatment risk stratification of feeding tube use in patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Anderson, Nigel J; Jackson, James E; Smith, Jennifer G; Wada, Morikatsu; Schneider, Michal; Poulsen, Michael; Rolfo, Maureen; Fahandej, Maziar; Gan, Hui; Joon, Daryl Lim; Khoo, Vincent

2018-05-13

The purpose of this study was to establish a risk stratification model for feeding tube use in patients who undergo intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head and neck cancers. One hundred thirty-nine patients treated with definitive IMRT (+/- concurrent chemotherapy) for head and neck mucosal cancers were included in this study. Patients were recommended a prophylactic feeding tube and followed up by a dietician for at least 8 weeks postradiotherapy (post-RT). Potential prognostic factors were analyzed for risk and duration of feeding tube use for at least 25% of dietary requirements. Many variables had significant effects on risk and/or duration of feeding tube use in univariate analyses. Subsequent multivariable analysis showed that T classification ≥3 and level 2 lymphadenopathy were the best independent significant predictors of higher risk and duration of feeding tube use, respectively, in oral cavity, pharyngeal, and supraglottic primaries. In patients treated with definitive IMRT, T classification ≥3 and level 2 lymphadenopathy can potentially stratify patients into 4 risk groups for developing severe dysphagia requiring feeding tube use. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Kid-Short Marfan Score (Kid-SMS) Is a Useful Diagnostic Tool for Stratifying the Pre-Test Probability of Marfan Syndrome in Childhood

PubMed Central

Stark, Veronika C.; Arndt, Florian; Harring, Gesa; von Kodolitsch, Yskert; Kozlik-Feldmann, Rainer; Mueller, Goetz C.; Steiner, Kristoffer J.; Mir, Thomas S.

2015-01-01

Due to age dependent organ manifestation, diagnosis of Marfan syndrome (MFS) is a challenge, especially in childhood. It is important to identify children at risk of MFS as soon as possible to direct those to appropriate treatment but also to avoid stigmatization due to false diagnosis. We published the Kid-Short Marfan Score (Kid-SMS) in 2012 to stratify the pre-test probability of MFS in childhood. Hence we now evaluate the predictive performance of Kid-SMS in a new cohort of children. We prospectively investigated 106 patients who were suspected of having MFS. At baseline, children were examined according to Kid-SMS. At baseline and follow-up visit, diagnosis of MFS was established or rejected using standard current diagnostic criteria according to the revised Ghent Criteria (Ghent-2). At baseline 43 patients were identified with a risk of MFS according to Kid-SMS whereas 21 patients had Ghent-2 diagnosis of MFS. Sensitivity was 100%, specificity 77%, negative predictive value 100% and Likelihood ratio of Kid-SMS 4.3. During follow-up period, three other patients with a stratified risk for MFS were diagnosed according to Ghent-2. We confirm very good predictive performance of Kid-SMS with excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value but restricted specificity. Kid-SMS avoids stigmatization due to diagnosis of MFS and thus restriction to quality of life. Especially outpatient pediatricians and pediatric cardiologists can use it for primary assessment. PMID:28943606

Kid-Short Marfan Score (Kid-SMS) Is a Useful Diagnostic Tool for Stratifying the Pre-Test Probability of Marfan Syndrome in Childhood.

PubMed

Stark, Veronika C; Arndt, Florian; Harring, Gesa; von Kodolitsch, Yskert; Kozlik-Feldmann, Rainer; Mueller, Goetz C; Steiner, Kristoffer J; Mir, Thomas S

2015-03-12

Due to age dependent organ manifestation, diagnosis of Marfan syndrome (MFS) is a challenge, especially in childhood. It is important to identify children at risk of MFS as soon as possible to direct those to appropriate treatment but also to avoid stigmatization due to false diagnosis. We published the Kid-Short Marfan Score (Kid-SMS) in 2012 to stratify the pre-test probability of MFS in childhood. Hence we now evaluate the predictive performance of Kid-SMS in a new cohort of children. We prospectively investigated 106 patients who were suspected of having MFS. At baseline, children were examined according to Kid-SMS. At baseline and follow-up visit, diagnosis of MFS was established or rejected using standard current diagnostic criteria according to the revised Ghent Criteria (Ghent-2). At baseline 43 patients were identified with a risk of MFS according to Kid-SMS whereas 21 patients had Ghent-2 diagnosis of MFS. Sensitivity was 100%, specificity 77%, negative predictive value 100% and Likelihood ratio of Kid-SMS 4.3. During follow-up period, three other patients with a stratified risk for MFS were diagnosed according to Ghent-2. We confirm very good predictive performance of Kid-SMS with excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value but restricted specificity. Kid-SMS avoids stigmatization due to diagnosis of MFS and thus restriction to quality of life. Especially outpatient pediatricians and pediatric cardiologists can use it for primary assessment.

The clinical effect and tolerability of ezetimibe in high-risk patients managed in a specialty cardiovascular risk reduction clinic

PubMed Central

Pearson, Glen J; Francis, Gordon A; Romney, Jacques S; Gilchrist, Dawna M; Opgenorth, Andrea; Gyenes, Gabor T

2006-01-01

INTRODUCTION Ezetimibe (EZ) is a selective cholesterol absorption inhibitor approved for use in Canada. The effect and tolerability of EZ among patients was evaluated in the clinical setting of a specialty cardiovascular risk reduction clinic at the University of Alberta Hospital, Edmonton, Alberta. PATIENTS AND METHODS All patients 18 years of age or older who were prescribed EZ were included, unless they failed to take EZ for a minimum of two weeks, did not have baseline and on-EZ low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels, or had concomitant lipid-lowering drugs or dosages changed within one month of starting EZ. RESULTS Eighty-four patients (mean age 57.9 years) were included. By Framingham risk calculation, 71.4% were found to be high-risk patients, 13.1% moderate-risk patients and 15.5% low-risk patients; 66.7% of patients had prior cardiovascular events. On EZ, the mean reductions were: total cholesterol level 1.11 mmol/L (16.5%); LDL-C level 1.01 mmol/L (22.3%); high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level 0.06 mmol/L (4.6%); and ratio of total cholesterol level to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level 0.68 mmol/L (12.8%); all were statistically significant (P<0.001). Results were similar when stratified by primary (n=28) versus secondary (n=56) prevention. Patients on EZ monotherapy (n=34) had mean LDL-C reductions of 1.03 mmol/L (20.5%) compared with 1.19 mmol/L (30.1%) or 0.95 mmol/L (22.5%), where EZ was added to low-dose or high-dose statins (P<0.01 for all). On EZ, 30 patients (35.7%) achieved previously unattainable target LDL-C levels. Four patients discontinued the drug due to side effects. CONCLUSIONS EZ is safe and effective in high-risk patients treated in the clinical setting of a cardiovascular risk reduction clinic. A mean LDL-C reduction of 1 mmol/L (20% to 30%) in all patient subgroups is consistent with previous clinical trial results. The significant reduction in LDL-C (mean 22.5%) observed in the EZ plus high-dose statin

Subclassification of left ventricular hypertrophy based on dilation stratifies coronary artery disease patients with distinct risk.

PubMed

Huang, Bao-Tao; Peng, Yong; Liu, Wei; Zhang, Chen; Huang, Fang-Yang; Wang, Peng-Ju; Zuo, Zhi-Liang; Liao, Yan-Biao; Chai, Hua; Li, Qiao; Zhao, Zhen-Gang; Luo, Xiao-Lin; Ren, Xin; Huang, Kai-Sen; Meng, Qing-Tao; Chen, Chi; Huang, De-Jia; Chen, Mao

2014-10-01

A new 4-tired classification of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) based on LV concentricity and dilation has been proposed; however, the association between the new categorization of LV geometry and outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is still unknown. All the 2297 patients with CAD included underwent echocardiographic examination prior to discharge. Left ventricular mass (LVM) was calculated, and left ventricular end-diastolic volume (EDV) was indexed by body surface area (BSA). Study cohort was divided into five groups according to LV geometry: (i) eccentric nondilated LVH (normal LVM/EDV((2/3)) and EDV/BSA) (n = 129); (ii) eccentric dilated LVH (normal LVM/EDV((2/3)) with increased EDV/BSA) (n = 222); (iii) concentric nondilated LVH (increased LVM/EDV((2/3)) with normal EDV/BSA) (n = 441); (iv) concentric dilated LVH (increased LVM/EDV((2/3)) and EDV/BSA) (n = 118); and (v) normal LV mass (n = 1387). Dilated LVH was associated with a higher event rates of all-cause death (eccentric 13·1% vs. 3·1%; concentric 13·6% vs. 8·4%) and composite events (eccentric: 17·6% vs. 5·4%; concentric: 18·6% vs. 12·7%) compared with nondilated LVH. While eccentric nondilated LVH had comparable risk for adverse outcomes compared with normal LV mass (all-cause death: relative risk (RR) 0·68, 95% confidential interval (CI) 0·25-1·85; composite events: RR 0·75, 95% CI 0·36-1·58). Cox regression analyses showed that eccentric dilated LVH had the highest propensity to all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2·752 [95% CI 1·749-4·328], P < 0·001) and composite events (aHR 2·462 [95% CI 1·688-3·592], P < 0·001). In patients with CAD, dilated LVH and nondilated LVH provide distinct prognostic information. Eccentric nondilated LVH does not predict adverse outcomes. © 2014 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Risk for Femoral Fractures in Parkinson’s Disease Patients with and without Severe Functional Impairment

PubMed Central

Benzinger, Petra; Rapp, Kilian; Maetzler, Walter; König, Hans-Helmut; Jaensch, Andrea; Klenk, Jochen; Büchele, Gisela

2014-01-01

Background Impaired balance is a major problem in patients with idiopathic Parkinson’s disease (PD) resulting in an increased risk of falls and fall-related fractures. Most studies which analyzed the risk of femoral fractures in patients with idiopathic PD were performed either in specialized centers or excluded very frail patients. The current study used a large population-based dataset in order to analyze the risk of femoral fractures in patients with idiopathic PD. Methods Data from more than 880.000 individuals aged 65 years or older and insured between 2004 and 2009 at a large German health insurance company were used for the analyses. Persons with idiopathic PD were identified by the dispensing of Parkinson-specific medication and by hospital diagnoses, if available. People without PD served as the reference group. Incident femoral fractures were obtained from hospital diagnoses. Analyses were stratified by gender and information on severe functional impairment (care need) as provided by reimbursement claims. Results Compared with the reference group, persons with idiopathic PD had a more than doubled risk to sustain a femoral fracture. The risk was higher in men (HR = 2.61; 95%-CI: 2.28–2.98) than in women (HR = 1.79; 95%-CI: 1.66–1.94). The increased risk was only observed in people without severe functional impairment. The sensitivity analysis using a refined definition of idiopathic PD patients yielded similar results. Conclusion The findings confirm the increased risk of femoral fractures in patients with idiopathic PD. The relative risk is particularly high in male PD patients and in patients without severe functional impairment. PMID:24853110

Cancer risk in patients with alopecia areata: a nationwide population-based matched cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Chih-Chiang; Chang, Yun-Ting; Liu, Han-Nan; Chen, Yi-Ju

2018-05-01

Alopecia areata (AA) is an organ-specific autoimmune disorder. Defective immune system related disorders are prone to increase the risk of cancer formation. However, the association among AA and variety of cancer types had never been studied. A nationwide population-based matched cohort study was conducted to evaluate the cancer risk in patients with AA. Records from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database were analyzed. Cases of AA from 1997 to 2013 and cancers registered in the catastrophic illness profile from the same time period were collected. The standard incidence ratio (SIR) of each cancer was calculated. In total, 2099 cancers among 162,499 patients with AA and without prior cancers were identified. The overall cancer risks in AA patients were slightly decreased, especially among male subjects (SIR: 0.89). Refer to individual cancer, the cancer risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) (SIR: 0.59), upper GI cancer (SIR: 0.70), liver cancer (SIR: 0.82), uterine, and cervix cancer (SIR: 0.84) were significantly lower in patients with AA. In contrast, AA patients were inclined to have lymphoma, breast cancer, kidney, and urinary bladder cancer with the SIR of 1.55, 2.93, and 2.95, respectively. Age stratified analyses revealed female AA patients younger than 50 years old have even higher risk of breast cancer (SIR: 3.37). Further sensitivity analysis showed similar results after excluding major autoimmune disorders. Cancer risk in AA patients is organ specific, and it is not associated with the underlying autoimmune disorders in patients with AA. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The validity of three fall risk screening tools in an acute geriatric inpatient population.

PubMed

Latt, Mark Dominic; Loh, K Florence; Ge, Ludi; Hepworth, Annie

2016-09-01

We examined the validity of the Ontario Modified STRATIFY (OM) (St Thomas's Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients), The Northern Hospital Modified STRATIFY (TNH) and STRATIFY in predicting falls in an acute aged care unit. Data were collected prospectively from 217 people presenting consecutively and falls identified during hospitalisation. Sensitivities of OM (80.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 58.4 to 91.9%), TNH (85, CI 64.0 to 94.8%) and STRATIFY (80.0, CI 58.4 to 91.0%) were similar. The STRATIFY had higher specificity (61.4, CI 54.5 to 67.9%) than OM (37.1, CI 30.6 to 44.0%) and TNH (51.3, CI 44.3 to 58.2%). Accuracy (percentage of patients correctly classified as 'faller' or 'non-faller') was higher using STRATIFY (63.1, CI 56.5 to 69.3%) and TNH (54.4, CI 47.8 to 61.0%) than with OM (41.0, CI 34.7 to 47.7%, P < 0.0001). Screening tools have limited accuracy in identifying patients at high risk of falls. © 2016 AJA Inc.

Endovascular thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke in failed intravenous tissue plasminogen activator versus non-intravenous tissue plasminogen activator patients: revascularization and outcomes stratified by the site of arterial occlusions.

PubMed

Shi, Zhong-Song; Loh, Yince; Walker, Gary; Duckwiler, Gary R

2010-06-01

Intracranial mechanical thrombectomy is a therapeutic option for acute ischemic stroke patients failing intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV tPA). We compared patients treated by mechanical embolus removal in cerebral ischemia (MERCI) thrombectomy after failed IV tPA with those treated with thrombectomy alone. We pooled MERCI and Multi MERCI study patients, grouped them either as failed IV tPA or non-IV tPA, and assessed revascularization rates, procedural complications, symptomatic hemorrhage rates, clinical outcomes, and mortality. We also evaluated outcomes stratified by the occlusion site and final revascularization. Among 305 patients, 48 failed, and 257 were ineligible for IV tPA. Nonresponders to IV tPA trended toward a higher revascularization rate (73% versus 63%) and less mortality (27.7% versus 40.1%) and had similar rates of symptomatic hemorrhage and procedural complications. Favorable 90-day outcomes were similar in failed and non-IV tPA patients (38% versus 31%), with no difference according to occlusion site. Among patients failing IV tPA, good outcomes tended to occur more frequently in revascularized patients (47.1% versus 15.4%), although this relationship was attributable solely to middle cerebral artery and not internal carotid artery occlusions, with no difference in mortality. Among IV tPA-ineligible patients, revascularization correlated with good outcome (47.4% versus 4.4%) and less mortality (28.5% versus 59.6%). The risks of hemorrhage and procedure-related complications after mechanical thrombectomy do not differ with respect to previous IV tPA administration. Thrombectomy after IV tPA achieves similar rates of good outcomes, a tendency toward lower mortality, and similar revascularization rates when stratified by clot location. Good outcomes correlate with successful revascularization except with internal carotid artery occlusions in tPA-nonresponders.

Performance of a risk index for advanced proximal colorectal neoplasia among a racially/ethnically diverse patient population (risk index for advanced proximal neoplasia).

PubMed

Levitzky, Benjamin E; Brown, Colin C; Heeren, Timothy C; Schroy, Paul C

2011-06-01

Tailoring the use of screening colonoscopy based on the risk of advanced proximal neoplasia (APN) has been advocated as a strategy for reducing demand and optimizing effectiveness. A 7-point index based on age, sex, and distal findings at sigmoidoscopy has been proposed that stratifies individuals into low, intermediate, and high-risk categories. The aim of this cross-sectional analysis was to determine the validity of this index, which was originally derived and validated among mostly whites, for black and Hispanic patients. Data, including age, sex, colonoscopic findings, and pathology, were collected retrospectively from 1,481 white, 1,329 black, and 689 Hispanic asymptomatic, average-risk patients undergoing screening colonoscopy between 2000 and 2005. Cumulative scores ranging from 0 to 7 were derived for each subject and categorized as low, intermediate, or high risk. Rates of APN were assessed for each risk category after stratification by race/ethnicity. Index performance was assessed using the C-statistic and compared across the three racial groups. Rates of APN among patients categorized as low, intermediate, or high risk increased from 1.0 to 2.8 to 3.7% for whites, 1.0 to 2.2 to 4.2% for blacks, and 0.6 to 1.9 to 3.7% for Hispanics. The index performed similarly for all three groups, but showed limited ability to discriminate low from intermediate-risk patients, with C-statistic values of 0.62 for whites, 0.63 for blacks, and 0.68 for Hispanics. A risk index based on age, sex, and distal endoscopic findings has limited ability to discriminate low from intermediate-risk white, black, and Hispanic patients for APN.

Female schizophrenia patients and risk of breast cancer: A population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Wu Chou, Ana Isabel; Wang, Yu-Chiao; Lin, Cheng-Li; Kao, Chia-Hung

2017-10-01

Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer in women. This population-based cohort study aimed to examine the association between breast cancer in female schizophrenia patients and its association with the use of antipsychotics drugs. All study subjects were selected from the Taiwan Insurance Claims Data (1998-2008). We compared the risk for breast cancer between female schizophrenia patients receiving antipsychotics (n=29,641) with female patients without any serious mental illnesses nor receiving antipsychotic drugs (n=59,282). We also compared between patients on 1) first-generation antipsychotics (FGAs) alone; 2) combination of first and second generation antipsychotics (SGAs); and 3) SGAs alone. We then stratified those on SGAs into two subgroups according to their prolactin-elevating properties: risperidone (RIS), paliperidone (PAL) or amisulpride (AMI) and all other SGAs. After adjusting for confounding factors, the risk of breast cancer in female schizophrenia patients was 1.94 higher than the non-schizophrenia cohort (aHR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.43-2.63). Schizophrenia patients receiving a combination of FGAs and SGAs had a slightly higher risk of breast cancer than non-schizophrenic patients (aHR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.56-3.01). Patients on RIS, PAL, and AMI had a 1.96-fold risk of breast cancer compared to the non-schizophrenic cohort (95% CI: 1.36-2.82). This study raises awareness among both clinicians and patients about the importance of breast cancer screening and the promotion of healthy lifestyle choices. Due to the nature of our database, confounding factors - such as parity, obesity, hormone therapy, and smoking - could not be controlled for. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association of anemia with the risk of cardiovascular adverse events in overweight/obese patients.

PubMed

Winther, S A; Finer, N; Sharma, A M; Torp-Pedersen, C; Andersson, C

2014-03-01

Anemia is associated with increased cardiovascular risks. Obesity may cause anemia in several ways, for example, by low-grade inflammation and relative iron deficit. The outcomes associated with anemia in overweight/obese patients at high cardiovascular risk are however not known. Therefore, we investigated the cardiovascular prognosis in overweight/obese subjects with anemia. A total of 9,687 overweight/obese cardiovascular high-risk patients from the Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes trial were studied. Patients were stratified after baseline hemoglobin level and followed for the risks of primary event (comprising nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest or cardiovascular death) and all-cause mortality. Risk estimates (hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI)) were calculated using Cox regression models. Anemia was unadjusted associated with increased risk for the primary event, HR 1.73 (CI 1.37-2.18) and HR 2.02 (CI 1.34-3.06) for patients with mild or moderate-to-severe anemia, respectively, compared with patients without anemia. Adjusted for several confounders, anemia remained of prognostic importance. Increased risk of the primary events appeared to be driven by risk of cardiovascular death, adjusted HR 1.82 (CI 1.33-2.51) for mild anemia and adjusted HR 1.65 (CI 0.90-3.04) for moderate-to-severe anemia, and all-cause mortality, adjusted HR 1.50 (CI 1.17-1.93) for mild and adjusted HR 1.61 (CI 1.04-2.51) for moderate-to-severe anemia. While adding serum creatinine to the models, the increased risk of mild anemia was still a significant predictor for mortality (cardiovascular and all-cause), whereas moderate-to-severe anemia was not. For the primary events, anemia was no longer of independent prognostic importance when including serum creatinine. Anemia is associated with an increased risk of long-term adverse cardiovascular events and deaths among overweight/obese cardiovascular high-risk patients. The

Patients' opinions about knowing their risk for depression and what to do about it. The predictD-qualitative study.

PubMed

Bellón, Juan Á; Moreno-Peral, Patricia; Moreno-Küstner, Berta; Motrico, Emma; Aiarzagüena, José M; Fernández, Anna; Fernández-Alonso, Carmen; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Rodríguez-Bayón, Antonina; Ballesta-Rodríguez, María Isabel; Runte-Geidel, Ariadne; Rüntel-Geidel, Ariadne; Payo-Gordón, Janire; Serrano-Blanco, Antoni; Oliván-Blázquez, Bárbara; Araujo, Luz; Muñoz-García, María del Mar; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Amezcua, Manuel

2014-01-01

The predictD study developed and validated a risk algorithm for predicting the onset of major depression in primary care. We aimed to explore the opinion of patients about knowing their risk for depression and the values and criteria upon which these opinions are based. A maximum variation sample of patients was taken, stratified by city, age, gender, immigrant status, socio-economic status and lifetime depression. The study participants were 52 patients belonging to 13 urban health centres in seven different cities around Spain. Seven Focus Groups (FGs) were given held with primary care patients, one for each of the seven participating cities. The results showed that patients generally welcomed knowing their risk for depression. Furthermore, in light of available evidence several patients proposed potential changes in their lifestyles to prevent depression. Patients generally preferred to ask their General Practitioners (GPs) for advice, though mental health specialists were also mentioned. They suggested that GPs undertake interventions tailored to each patient, from a "patient-centred" approach, with certain communication skills, and giving advice to help patients cope with the knowledge that they are at risk of becoming depressed. Patients are pleased to be informed about their risk for depression. We detected certain beliefs, attitudes, values, expectations and behaviour among the patients that were potentially useful for future primary prevention programmes on depression.

Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism in Pediatric Trauma Patients and Validation of a Novel Scoring System: The Risk of Clots in Kids with Trauma (ROCKIT score)

PubMed Central

Yen, Jennifer; Van Arendonk, Kyle J.; Streiff, Michael B.; McNamara, LeAnn; Stewart, F. Dylan; Conner G, Kim G; Thompson, Richard E.; Haut, Elliott R.; Takemoto, Clifford M.

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES Identify risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) and develop a VTE risk assessment model for pediatric trauma patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS We performed a retrospective review of patients 21 years and younger who were hospitalized following traumatic injuries at the John Hopkins level 1 adult and pediatric trauma center (1987-2011). The clinical characteristics of patients with and without VTE were compared, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for VTE. Weighted risk assessment scoring systems were developed based on these and previously identified factors from patients in the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB 2008-2010); the scoring systems were validated in this cohort from Johns Hopkins as well as a cohort of pediatric admissions from the NTDB (2011-2012). MAIN RESULTS Forty-nine of 17,366 pediatric trauma patients (0.28%) were diagnosed with VTE after admission to our trauma center. After adjusting for potential confounders, VTE was independently associated with older age, surgery, blood transfusion, higher Injury Severity Score (ISS), and lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score. These and additional factors were identified in 402,329 pediatric patients from the NTDB from 2008-2010; independent risk factors from the logistic regression analysis of this NTDB cohort were selected and incorporated into weighted risk assessment scoring systems. Two models were developed and were cross-validated in 2 separate pediatric trauma cohorts: 1) 282,535 patients in the NTDB from 2011 to 2012 2) 17,366 patients from Johns Hopkins. The receiver operator curve using these models in the validation cohorts had area under the curves that ranged 90% to 94%. CONCLUSIONS VTE is infrequent after trauma in pediatric patients. We developed weighted scoring systems to stratify pediatric trauma patients at risk for VTE. These systems may have potential to guide risk-appropriate VTE prophylaxis in children after

NEDD9, an independent good prognostic factor in intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia patients

PubMed Central

Pallarès, Victor; Hoyos, Montserrat; Chillón, M. Carmen; Barragán, Eva; Conde, M. Isabel Prieto; Llop, Marta; Céspedes, María Virtudes; Nomdedeu, Josep F.; Brunet, Salut; Sanz, Miguel Ángel; González-Díaz, Marcos; Sierra, Jorge; Casanova, Isolda; Mangues, Ramon

2017-01-01

Intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia (IR-AML) is the largest subgroup of AML patients and is highly heterogeneous. Whereas adverse and favourable risk patients have well-established treatment protocols, IR-AML patients have not. It is, therefore, crucial to find novel factors that stratify this subgroup to implement risk-adapted strategies. The CAS (Crk-associated substrate) adaptor protein family regulates cell proliferation, survival, migration and adhesion. Despite its association with metastatic dissemination and prognosis of different solid tumors, the role of these proteins in hematological malignancies has been scarcely evaluated. Nevertheless, previous work has established an important role for the CAS family members NEDD9 or BCAR1 in the migratory and dissemination capacities of myeloid cells. On this basis, we hypothesized that NEDD9 or BCAR1 expression levels could associate with survival in IR-AML patients and become new prognostic markers. To that purpose, we assessed BCAR1 and NEDD9 gene expression in a cohort of 73 adult AML patients validating the results in an independent cohort (n = 206). We have identified NEDD9, but not BCAR1, as a new a marker for longer overall and disease-free survival, and for lower cumulative incidence of relapse. In summary, NEDD9 gene expression is an independent prognostic factor for favourable prognosis in IR-AML patients. PMID:29100287

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

PubMed Central

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

Preoperative patient characteristics and outcomes of total knee arthroplasty in a multiethnic Asian population stratified by ethnicity.

PubMed

Jiang, Lei; Bin Abd Razak, Hamid Rahmatullah; Chong, Hwei Chi; Tan, Andrew

2014-02-01

We aim to compare the patient profile and outcomes after TKA between the different racial groups in Singapore. Prospective data were collected from 364 patients who underwent TKA in Singapore General Hospital from January 2006 to May 2010. Patients were stratified according to ethnicity and we compared their preoperative demographic data, Short-Form 36 (SF-36), Oxford Knee (OKS) as well as Knee Society Scores (KSS). Malays were younger (62.0 ± 5.3) at time of surgery (p=0.05) and the body mass index of Chinese (27.9 ± 4.7) was lower than Malay (30.4 ± 5.0) and Indian (31.5 ± 4.5) patients (P<0.005). Malay (40.3 ± 11.0) and Indian (39.2 ± 9.3) patients had less favourable preoperative OKS than Chinese (35.9 ± 7.8) patients (P<0.05). All 3 ethnic groups achieved statistically significant improvements in outcome measures but did not differ significantly between the ethnicities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sensors vs. experts - a performance comparison of sensor-based fall risk assessment vs. conventional assessment in a sample of geriatric patients.

PubMed

Marschollek, Michael; Rehwald, Anja; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Gietzelt, Matthias; Nemitz, Gerhard; zu Schwabedissen, Hubertus Meyer; Schulze, Mareike

2011-06-28

Fall events contribute significantly to mortality, morbidity and costs in our ageing population. In order to identify persons at risk and to target preventive measures, many scores and assessment tools have been developed. These often require expertise and are costly to implement. Recent research investigates the use of wearable inertial sensors to provide objective data on motion features which can be used to assess individual fall risk automatically. So far it is unknown how well this new method performs in comparison with conventional fall risk assessment tools. The aim of our research is to compare the predictive performance of our new sensor-based method with conventional and established methods, based on prospective data. In a first study phase, 119 inpatients of a geriatric clinic took part in motion measurements using a wireless triaxial accelerometer during a Timed Up&Go (TUG) test and a 20 m walk. Furthermore, the St. Thomas Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients (STRATIFY) was performed, and the multidisciplinary geriatric care team estimated the patients' fall risk. In a second follow-up phase of the study, 46 of the participants were interviewed after one year, including a fall and activity assessment. The predictive performances of the TUG, the STRATIFY and team scores are compared. Furthermore, two automatically induced logistic regression models based on conventional clinical and assessment data (CONV) as well as sensor data (SENSOR) are matched. Among the risk assessment scores, the geriatric team score (sensitivity 56%, specificity 80%) outperforms STRATIFY and TUG. The induced logistic regression models CONV and SENSOR achieve similar performance values (sensitivity 68%/58%, specificity 74%/78%, AUC 0.74/0.72, +LR 2.64/2.61). Both models are able to identify more persons at risk than the simple scores. Sensor-based objective measurements of motion parameters in geriatric patients can be used to assess individual fall risk, and our

Sensors vs. experts - A performance comparison of sensor-based fall risk assessment vs. conventional assessment in a sample of geriatric patients

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Fall events contribute significantly to mortality, morbidity and costs in our ageing population. In order to identify persons at risk and to target preventive measures, many scores and assessment tools have been developed. These often require expertise and are costly to implement. Recent research investigates the use of wearable inertial sensors to provide objective data on motion features which can be used to assess individual fall risk automatically. So far it is unknown how well this new method performs in comparison with conventional fall risk assessment tools. The aim of our research is to compare the predictive performance of our new sensor-based method with conventional and established methods, based on prospective data. Methods In a first study phase, 119 inpatients of a geriatric clinic took part in motion measurements using a wireless triaxial accelerometer during a Timed Up&Go (TUG) test and a 20 m walk. Furthermore, the St. Thomas Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients (STRATIFY) was performed, and the multidisciplinary geriatric care team estimated the patients' fall risk. In a second follow-up phase of the study, 46 of the participants were interviewed after one year, including a fall and activity assessment. The predictive performances of the TUG, the STRATIFY and team scores are compared. Furthermore, two automatically induced logistic regression models based on conventional clinical and assessment data (CONV) as well as sensor data (SENSOR) are matched. Results Among the risk assessment scores, the geriatric team score (sensitivity 56%, specificity 80%) outperforms STRATIFY and TUG. The induced logistic regression models CONV and SENSOR achieve similar performance values (sensitivity 68%/58%, specificity 74%/78%, AUC 0.74/0.72, +LR 2.64/2.61). Both models are able to identify more persons at risk than the simple scores. Conclusions Sensor-based objective measurements of motion parameters in geriatric patients can be used to

Development of a clinical prediction rule for risk stratification of recurrent venous thromboembolism in patients with cancer-associated venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Louzada, Martha L; Carrier, Marc; Lazo-Langner, Alejandro; Dao, Vi; Kovacs, Michael J; Ramsay, Timothy O; Rodger, Marc A; Zhang, Jerry; Lee, Agnes Y Y; Meyer, Guy; Wells, Philip S

2012-07-24

Long-term low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) is the current standard for treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in cancer patients. Whether treatment strategies should vary according to individual risk of VTE recurrence remains unknown. We performed a retrospective cohort study and a validation study in patients with cancer-associated VTE to derive a clinical prediction rule that stratifies VTE recurrence risk. The cohort study of 543 patients determined the model with the best classification performance included 4 independent predictors (sex, primary tumor site, stage, and prior VTE) with 100% sensitivity, a wide separation of recurrence rates, 98.1% negative predictive value, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.16. In this model, the score sum ranged between -3 and 3 score points. Patients with a score ≤ 0 had low risk (≤ 4.5%) for recurrence and patients with a score >1 had a high risk (≥ 19%) for VTE recurrence. Subsequently, we applied and validated the rule in an independent set of 819 patients from 2 randomized, controlled trials comparing low-molecular-weight heparin to coumarin treatment in cancer patients. By identifying VTE recurrence risk in cancer patients with VTE, we may be able to tailor treatment, improving clinical outcomes while minimizing costs.

Method of Breast Reconstruction Determines Venous Thromboembolism Risk Better Than Current Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Patel, Niyant V.; Wagner, Douglas S.

2015-01-01

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk models including the Davison risk score and the 2005 Caprini risk assessment model have been validated in plastic surgery patients. However, their utility and predictive value in breast reconstruction has not been well described. We sought to determine the utility of current VTE risk models in this population and the VTE rate observed in various methods of breast reconstruction. Methods: A retrospective review of breast reconstructions by a single surgeon was performed. One hundred consecutive transverse rectus abdominis myocutaneous (TRAM) patients, 100 consecutive implant patients, and 100 consecutive latissimus dorsi patients were identified over a 10-year period. Patient demographics and presence of symptomatic VTE were collected. 2005 Caprini risk scores and Davison risk scores were calculated for each patient. Results: The TRAM reconstruction group was found to have a higher VTE rate (6%) than the implant (0%) and latissimus (0%) reconstruction groups (P < 0.01). Mean Davison risk scores and 2005 Caprini scores were similar across all reconstruction groups (P > 0.1). The vast majority of patients were stratified as high risk (87.3%) by the VTE risk models. However, only TRAM reconstruction patients demonstrated significant VTE risk. Conclusions: TRAM reconstruction appears to have a significantly higher risk of VTE than both implant and latissimus reconstruction. Current risk models do not effectively stratify breast reconstruction patients at risk for VTE. The method of breast reconstruction appears to have a significant role in patients’ VTE risk. PMID:26090287

Predicted versus observed 30-day perioperative outcomes using the ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator in patients undergoing partial nephrectomy for renal cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Blair, Brian M; Lehman, Erik B; Jafri, Syed M; Kaag, Matthew G; Raman, Jay D

2018-06-04

The purpose of the study was to evaluate the accuracy of the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator for predicting risk-adjusted 30-day outcomes for patients undergoing partial nephrectomy (PN) for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). A single institution, multi-surgeon, prospectively maintained database was queried for patients undergoing PN for RCC from 1998 to 2015. 21 preoperative factors were analyzed for each patient with predicted risk for 30-day complications, mortality, and length of stay (LOS) calculated. Differences between the mean predicted risk and observed rate of surgical outcomes were determined using two-sided one-sample t test with significance at p < 0.05. Subgroup analyses of outcomes stratified by surgical approach were also performed. 470 patients undergoing PN for RCC were analyzed. Comparing NSQIP predicted to observed outcomes, clinically significant underestimations occurred with rates of overall complications (9.16 vs. 16.81%, p < 0.001), surgical site infections [SSI] (1.65 vs. 2.77%, p < 0.001), urinary tract infection [UTI] (1.41 vs. 3.40%, p < 0.001), and LOS (3.25 vs. 3.73 days, p < 0.001). On subgroup analysis, 209 open PN and 261 minimally invasive PN (MIPN) were performed. The NSQIP calculator consistently underestimated overall complications, SSI, UTI, and LOS (p < 0.001) among both surgical approaches, while overestimating MIPN severe complications (p < 0.001). Clinically important differences persisted when stratifying the MIPN group by laparoscopic (N = 111) and robotic (N = 150) approaches. The ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator had significant discrepancies among observed and predicted outcomes. Additional analyses confirmed these differences remained significant irrespective of surgical approach. These findings emphasize the need for urologic oncology-specific calculators to better predict surgical outcomes in this complex patient population.

Predicting relapse risk in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

PubMed

Teachey, David T; Hunger, Stephen P

2013-09-01

Intensive multi-agent chemotherapy regimens and the introduction of risk-stratified therapy have substantially improved cure rates for children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Current risk allocation schemas are imperfect, as some children are classified as lower-risk and treated with less intensive therapy relapse, while others deemed higher-risk are probably over-treated. Most cooperative groups previously used morphological clearance of blasts in blood and marrow during the initial phases of chemotherapy as a primary factor for risk group allocation; however, this has largely been replaced by the detection of minimal residual disease (MRD). Other than age and white blood cell count (WBC) at presentation, many clinical variables previously used for risk group allocation are no longer prognostic, as MRD and the presence of sentinel genetic lesions are more reliable at predicting outcome. Currently, a number of sentinel genetic lesions are used by most cooperative groups for risk stratification; however, in the near future patients will probably be risk-stratified using genomic signatures and clustering algorithms, rather than individual genetic alterations. This review will describe the clinical, biological, and response-based features known to predict relapse risk in childhood ALL, including those currently used and those likely to be used in the near future to risk-stratify therapy. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Celiac Disease Does Not Influence Fracture Risk in Young Patients with Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Reilly, Norelle R; Lebwohl, Benjamin; Mollazadegan, Kaziwe; Michaëlsson, Karl; Green, Peter HR; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2015-01-01

Objectives To examine the risk of any fractures in patients with both type 1 diabetes (T1D) and celiac disease (CD) vs patients with T1D only. Study design We performed a population-based cohort study. We defined T1D as individuals aged ≤30 years who had a diagnosis of diabetes recorded in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1964–2009. Individuals with CD were identified through biopsy report data between 1969–2008 from any of Sweden’s 28 pathology departments. Some 958 individuals had both T1D and CD and were matched for sex, age and calendar period with 4,598 reference individuals with T1D only. We then used a stratified Cox regression analysis, where CD was modeled as a time-dependent covariate, to estimate the risk of any fractures and osteoporotic fractures (hip, distal forearm, thoracic and lumbar spine, and proximal humerus) in patients with both T1D and CD compared with that in patients with T1D only. Results During follow-up, 12 patients with T1D and CD had a fracture (1 osteoporotic fracture). CD did not influence the risk of any fracture (adjusted Hazard Ratio=0.77; 95%CI=0.42–1.41) or osteoporotic fractures (adjusted Hazard Ratio=0.46; 95%CI=0.06–3.51) in patients with T1D. Stratification for time since CD diagnosis did not affect risk estimates. Conclusion Having a diagnosis of CD does not seem to influence fracture risk in young patients with T1D. Follow-up in this study was, however, too short to ascertain osteoporotic fractures which traditionally occur in old age. PMID:26589343

Increased risk for nonmelanoma skin cancers in patients who receive thiopurines for inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Khosrotehrani, Kiarash; Carrat, Fabrice; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Chevaux, Jean-Baptiste; Simon, Tabassome; Carbonnel, Frank; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Dupas, Jean-Louis; Godeberge, Philippe; Hugot, Jean-Pierre; Lémann, Marc; Nahon, Stéphane; Sabaté, Jean-Marc; Tucat, Gilbert; Beaugerie, Laurent

2011-11-01

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) who have been exposed to thiopurines might have an increased risk of skin cancer. We assessed this risk among patients in France. We performed a prospective observational cohort study of 19,486 patients with IBD, enrolled from May 2004 to June 2005, who were followed up until December 31, 2007. The incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in the general population, used for reference, was determined from the French Network of Cancer Registries. Before the age of 50 years, the crude incidence rates of NMSC among patients currently receiving or who previously received thiopurines were 0.66/1000 and 0.38/1000 patient-years, respectively; these values were 2.59/1000 and 1.96/1000 patient-years for the age group of 50 to 65 years and 4.04/1000 and 5.70/1000 patient-years for patients older than 65 years. Among patients who had never received thiopurines, the incidence of NMSC was zero before the age of 50 years, 0.60/1000 for the ages of 50 to 65 years, and 0.84/1000 for those older than 65 years. A multivariate Cox regression model stratified by propensity score quintiles showed that ongoing thiopurine treatment (hazard ratio [HR], 5.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1-16.4; P = .0006) and past thiopurine exposure (HR, 3.9; 95% CI, 1.3-12.1; P = .02) were risk factors for NMSC. They also identified age per 1-year increase as a risk factor for NMSC (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.05-1.11; P < .0001). Ongoing and past exposure to thiopurines significantly increases the risk of NMSC in patients with IBD, even before the age of 50 years. These patients should be protected against UV radiation and receive lifelong dermatologic screening. Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for treatment-limiting toxicities in patients starting nevirapine-containing antiretroviral therapy.

PubMed

Kesselring, Anouk M; Wit, Ferdinand W; Sabin, Caroline A; Lundgren, Jens D; Gill, M John; Gatell, Jose M; Rauch, Andri; Montaner, Julio S; de Wolf, Frank; Reiss, Peter; Mocroft, Amanda

2009-08-24

This collaboration of seven observational clinical cohorts investigated risk factors for treatment-limiting toxicities in both antiretroviral-naive and experienced patients starting nevirapine-based combination antiretroviral therapy (NVPc). Patients starting NVPc after 1 January 1998 were included. CD4 cell count at starting NVPc was classified as high (>400/microl/>250/microl for men/women, respectively) or low. Cox models were used to investigate risk factors for discontinuations due to hypersensitivity reactions (HSR, n = 6547) and discontinuation of NVPc due to treatment-limiting toxicities and/or patient/physician choice (TOXPC, n = 10,186). Patients were classified according to prior antiretroviral treatment experience and CD4 cell count/viral load at start NVPc. Models were stratified by cohort and adjusted for age, sex, nadir CD4 cell count, calendar year of starting NVPc and mode of transmission. Median time from starting NVPc to TOXPC and HSR were 162 days [interquartile range (IQR) 31-737] and 30 days (IQR 17-60), respectively. In adjusted Cox analyses, compared to naive patients with a low CD4 cell count, treatment-experienced patients with high CD4 cell count and viral load more than 400 had a significantly increased risk for HSR [hazard ratio 1.45, confidence interval (CI) 1.03-2.03] and TOXPC within 18 weeks (hazard ratio 1.34, CI 1.08-1.67). In contrast, treatment-experienced patients with high CD4 cell count and viral load less than 400 had no increased risk for HSR 1.10 (0.82-1.46) or TOXPC within 18 weeks (hazard ratio 0.94, CI 0.78-1.13). Our results suggest it may be relatively well tolerated to initiate NVPc in antiretroviral-experienced patients with high CD4 cell counts provided there is no detectable viremia.

Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) based risk factors for increased caregiver burden among elderly Asian patients with cancer.

PubMed

Rajasekaran, Tanujaa; Tan, Tira; Ong, Whee Sze; Koo, Khai Nee; Chan, Lili; Poon, Donald; Roy Chowdhury, Anupama; Krishna, Lalit; Kanesvaran, Ravindran

2016-05-01

This study aims to identify Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) based risk factors to help predict caregiver burden among elderly patients with cancer. The study evaluated 249 patients newly diagnosed with cancer, aged 70years and above, who attended the geriatric oncology clinic at the National Cancer Centre Singapore between 2007 and 2010. Out of 249 patients, 244 patients had information available on family caregiver burden and were analysed. On univariate analysis, ADL dependence, lower IADL scores, ECOG performance status of 3-4, higher fall risk, lower scores in dominant hand grip strength test and mini mental state examination, polypharmacy, higher nutritional risk, haemoglobin <12g/dL and presence of geriatric syndromes were significantly associated with mild to severe caregiver burden. On multivariate analysis, only ECOG performance status of 3-4 (odds ratio [OR], 4.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.27-8.80) and haemoglobin <12g/dL (OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.14-4.99) were associated with an increased probability of mild to severe caregiver burden. The model achieved a good fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow's p=0.196) and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]=0.742; bias-corrected AUC=0.737). Based on this, patients were stratified into 3 risk groups with different proportion of patients with increased caregiver burden (low risk: 3.9% vs intermediate risk: 18.8% vs high risk: 39.6%; p<0.001). ECOG performance status and haemoglobin were associated with increased caregiver burden among elderly patients with cancer. Using these two factors in the clinic may help clinicians identify caregivers at risk and take preventive action to mitigate that. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors of Catheter-Related Thrombosis (CRT) in Cancer Patients: A Patient-Level Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis of Clinical Trials and Prospective Studies

PubMed Central

Saber, W.; Moua, T.; Williams, E. C.; Verso, M.; Agnelli, G.; Couban, S.; Young, A.; De Cicco, M.; Biffi, R.; van Rooden, C. J.; Huisman, M. V.; Fagnani, D.; Cimminiello, C.; Moia, M.; Magagnoli, M.; Povoski, S. P.; Malak, S. F.; Lee, A. Y.

2010-01-01

Background Knowledge of independent, baseline risk factors of catheter-related thrombosis (CRT) may help select adult cancer patients at high risk to receive thromboprophylaxis. Objectives We conducted a meta-analysis of individual patient-level data to identify these baseline risk factors. Patients/Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, DARE, Grey literature databases were searched in all languages from 1995-2008. Prospective studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were eligible. Studies were included if original patient-level data were provided by the investigators and if CRT was objectively confirmed with valid imaging. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of 17 prespecified baseline characteristics was conducted. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. Results A total sample of 5636 subjects from 5 RCTs and 7 prospective studies was included in the analysis. Among these subjects, 425 CRT events were observed. In multivariate logistic regression, the use of implanted ports as compared with peripherally implanted central venous catheters (PICC), decreased CRT risk (OR = 0.43; 95% CI, 0.23-0.80), whereas past history of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) (OR = 2.03; 95% CI, 1.05-3.92), subclavian venipuncture insertion technique (OR = 2.16; 95% CI, 1.07-4.34), and improper catheter tip location (OR = 1.92; 95% CI, 1.22-3.02), increased CRT risk. Conclusions CRT risk is increased with using PICC catheters, previous history of DVT, subclavian venipuncture insertion technique and improper positioning of the catheter tip. These factors may be useful for risk stratifying patients to select those for thromboprophylaxis. Prospective studies are needed to validate these findings. PMID:21040443

Hyperuricemia and the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation--could it refine clinical risk stratification in AF?

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Liu, Chia-Jen; Chen, Su-Jung; Wang, Kang-Ling; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Tsao, Hsuan-Ming; Chen, Shih-Ann

2014-01-01

Although hyperuricemia has been reported to be a risk factor of stroke, the relationship between hyperuricemia and stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains uncertain. The goal of the present study was to investigate whether hyperuricemia could potentially refine clinical risk stratification in AF. This study used the "National Health Insurance Research Database" in Taiwan. A total of 7601 AF patients who did not receive antiplatelet agents or oral anticoagulants were identified as the study population. Hyperuricemia was defined as having at least one episode of gout attack necessitating long-term treatment with uric acid-lowering agents. The association between hyperuricemia and ischemic stroke was analyzed. During the follow up of 3.0±2.7 years, 1116 patients (14.7%) experienced ischemic stroke with an annual rate of around 4.9%. Hyperuricemia significantly predicts stroke, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.280 after adjusting for CHA2DS2-VASc score and other comorbidities. Among the 376 patients with a CHA2DS2VASc score of 0, hyperuricemia can further stratify them into 2 groups with different stroke rates (7.1% versus 1.3%, p=0.020). The adjusted HR of hyperuricemia in predicting ischemic stroke diminished from 7.491 for patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 to 1.659 for those with a score of 3, and became insignificant for patients with a score ≥4. Hyperuricemia was a significant risk factor of stroke which could potentially refine the clinical risk stratification in AF. It deserves a prospective trial to investigate whether it would change the current strategy for stroke preventions using oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An infectious disease/fever screening radar system which stratifies higher-risk patients within ten seconds using a neural network and the fuzzy grouping method.

PubMed

Sun, Guanghao; Matsui, Takemi; Hakozaki, Yukiya; Abe, Shigeto

2015-03-01

To classify higher-risk influenza patients within 10 s, we developed an infectious disease and fever screening radar system. The system screens infected patients based on vital signs, i.e., respiration rate measured by a radar, heart rate by a finger-tip photo-reflector, and facial temperature by a thermography. The system segregates subjects into higher-risk influenza (HR-I) group, lower-risk influenza (LR-I) group, and non-influenza (Non-I) group using a neural network and fuzzy clustering method (FCM). We conducted influenza screening for 35 seasonal influenza patients and 48 normal control subjects at the Japan Self-Defense Force Central Hospital. Pulse oximetry oxygen saturation (SpO2) was measured as a reference. The system classified 17 subjects into HR-I group, 26 into LR-I group, and 40 into Non-I group. Ten out of the 17 HR-I subjects indicated SpO2 <96%, whereas only two out of the 26 LR-I subjects showed SpO2 <96%. The chi-squared test revealed a significant difference in the ratio of subjects showed SpO2 <96% between HR-I and LR-I group (p < 0.001). There were zero and nine normal control subjects in HR-I and LR-I groups, respectively, and there was one influenza patient in Non-I group. The combination of neural network and FCM achieved efficient detection of higher-risk influenza patients who indicated SpO2 96% within 10 s. Copyright © 2014 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficacy and Safety of Vedolizumab in Ulcerative Colitis and Crohn's Disease Patients Stratified by Age.

PubMed

Yajnik, Vijay; Khan, Nabeel; Dubinsky, Marla; Axler, Jeffrey; James, Alexandra; Abhyankar, Brihad; Lasch, Karen

2017-02-01

The efficacy and safety of vedolizumab, a gut-selective α 4 β 7 integrin antibody, were demonstrated in the GEMINI 1 and GEMINI 2 clinical trials of adults aged 18-80 years. We investigated the efficacy and safety of vedolizumab in patients stratified by age from the GEMINI trials. Safety and efficacy, including clinical response, clinical remission, and corticosteroid-free remission, at week 6 and/or 52 were determined post hoc in patients aged <35, 35 to <55, and ≥55 years. At baseline, 353, 412, and 130 ulcerative colitis (UC) and 582, 443, and 90 Crohn's disease (CD) patients were aged <35, 35 to <55, and ≥55. Of these patients, 56 were aged ≥65 years (UC: 33, CD: 23). Trends favoring vedolizumab over placebo were observed for most efficacy endpoints irrespective of patient age; some variability between subgroups was observed. Safety profiles of vedolizumab and placebo were similar in all age groups. Vedolizumab-treated patients aged ≥55 had the lowest incidence of serious infections (0.9 per 100 person-years) and adverse events leading to hospitalization (14.8 per 100 person-years). There were no age-related differences in the incidence of adverse hematological events, malignancy, or death. The safety and efficacy of vedolizumab in patients with UC or CD were similar for all age groups. The number of patients in the oldest age group in these analyses was small; thus further studies of vedolizumab in larger cohorts of elderly patients are warranted. Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (d/b/a Takeda Pharmaceuticals International Co.).

Brain microbleeds, anticoagulation, and hemorrhage risk: Meta-analysis in stroke patients with AF.

PubMed

Charidimou, Andreas; Karayiannis, Christopher; Song, Tae-Jin; Orken, Dilek Necioglu; Thijs, Vincent; Lemmens, Robin; Kim, Jinkwon; Goh, Su Mei; Phan, Thanh G; Soufan, Cathy; Chandra, Ronil V; Slater, Lee-Anne; Haji, Shamir; Mok, Vincent; Horstmann, Solveig; Leung, Kam Tat; Kawamura, Yuichiro; Sato, Nobuyuki; Hasebe, Naoyuki; Saito, Tsukasa; Wong, Lawrence K S; Soo, Yannie; Veltkamp, Roland; Flemming, Kelly D; Imaizumi, Toshio; Srikanth, Velandai; Heo, Ji Hoe

2017-12-05

To assess the association between cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) and future spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) risk in ischemic stroke patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) taking oral anticoagulants. This was a meta-analysis of cohort studies with >50 patients with recent ischemic stroke and documented AF, brain MRI at baseline, long-term oral anticoagulation treatment, and ≥6 months of follow-up. Authors provided summary-level data on stroke outcomes stratified by CMB status. We estimated pooled annualized ICH and ischemic stroke rates from Poisson regression. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) of ICH by CMB presence/absence, ≥5 CMBs, and CMB topography (strictly lobar, mixed, and strictly deep) using random-effects models. We established an international collaboration and pooled data from 8 centers including 1,552 patients. The crude CMB prevalence was 30% and 7% for ≥5 CMBs. Baseline CMB presence (vs no CMB) was associated with ICH during follow-up (OR 2.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-6.01, p = 0.017). Presence of ≥5 CMB was related to higher future ICH risk (OR 5.50, 95% CI 2.07-14.66, p = 0.001). The pooled annual ICH incidence increased from 0.30% (95% CI 0.04-0.55) among CMB-negative patients to 0.81% (95% CI 0.17-1.45) in CMB-positive patients ( p = 0.01) and 2.48% (95% CI 1.2-6.2) in patients with ≥5 CMBs ( p = 0.001). There was no association between CMBs and recurrent ischemic stroke. The presence of CMB on MRI and the dichotomized cutoff of ≥5 CMBs might identify subgroups of ischemic stroke patients with AF with high ICH risk and after further validation could help in risk stratification, in anticoagulation decisions, and in guiding randomized trials and ongoing large observational studies. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Cancer risk among patients with finger and hand joint and temporo-mandibular joint prostheses in Denmark.

PubMed

Fryzek, J P; Mellemkjaer, L; McLaughlin, J K; Blot, W J; Olsen, J H

1999-05-31

The use of artificial joint implants has risen greatly over the past years. However, few investigations of the cancer risk associated with implants have been performed. We investigated cancer risk in patients with finger and hand joint and temporo-mandibular (TMJ) joint implants. A nationwide cohort in Denmark of patients with finger and hand joint prostheses (n = 858) or TMJ implants (n = 389) was followed from January 1, 1977, to December 31, 1995, to evaluate any potential cancer risks subsequent to receiving these implants. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for all cancers were 1.0 (95% CI = 0.8-1.2) for the finger and hand joint cohort and 1.1 (95% CI = 0.8-1.7) for the TMJ cohort. A significant risk for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was found in the finger and hand joint cohort (SIR = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.5-7.8). When the finger and hand joint cohort was stratified by diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis, the excess risk was seen only in the group with rheumatoid arthritis. This is consistent with past studies, which have found an association between rheumatoid arthritis and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Our results provide evidence that the cancer risk for patients with finger and hand joint prostheses and TMJ implants is similar to that for the general population.

Risk of disseminated intravascular coagulation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Nogami, Kenichiro; Muraki, Isao; Imano, Hironori; Iso, Hiroyasu

2017-01-01

Objectives To determine quantitatively the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC). Design Retrospective cohort study using a claims database. Setting Medical care institutions representing 9% of all secondary hospitals (acute care hospitals) in Japan. Participants In total, 797 324 admissions, comprising 435 354 patients aged 18–79 years at the time of admission, were enrolled between January 2010 and September 2014. All patients were diagnosed with diabetes or admitted to hospitals that provided laboratory data. Main outcome measures Incidence of DIC reported by physicians in claims data. Results Logistic regression analysis found that the risk of DIC was significantly higher in T2DM patients than in non-DM patients (fully adjusted OR: 1.39 (95% CI 1.32 to 1.45)), independent of age, sex, admission year and potential underlying diseases. The higher risk of DIC in T2DM patients was apparent in those who were treated with insulin within the 30-day period prior to admission (1.53 (1.37 to 1.72)). When stratified by the potential underlying diseases, the risk of DIC was higher in T2DM patients with non-septic severe infection (1.67 (1.41 to 1.97)) and with solid tumour (1.59 (1.47 to 1.72)) than in non-DM patients with those underlying diseases. The risk was similar between T2DM and non-DM patients with sepsis (0.98 (0.90 to 1.08)) and lower in T2DM patients with acute leukaemia (0.70 (0.59 to 0.84)). Conclusions T2DM was associated with a higher risk of DIC, particularly when recently treated with insulin, as well as among admissions with solid tumour or non-septic severe infection. PMID:28122835

Adjuvant treatment may benefit patients with high-risk upper rectal cancer: A nomogram and recursive partitioning analysis of 547 patients.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Jin, Jing; Yang, Yong; Liu, Wen-Yang; Ren, Hua; Feng, Yan-Ru; Xiao, Qin; Li, Ning; Deng, Lei; Fang, Hui; Jing, Hao; Lu, Ning-Ning; Tang, Yu; Wang, Jian-Yang; Wang, Shu-Lian; Wang, Wei-Hu; Song, Yong-Wen; Liu, Yue-Ping; Li, Ye-Xiong

2016-10-04

The role of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (ACRT) or adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in treating patients with locally advanced upper rectal cancer (URC) after total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery remains unclear. We developed a clinical nomogram and a recursive partitioning analysis (RPA)-based risk stratification system for predicting 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) to determine whether these individuals require ACRT or ACT. This retrospective analysis included 547 patients with primary URC. A nomogram was developed based on the Cox regression model. The performance of the model was assessed by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve in internal validation with bootstrapping. RPA stratified patients into risk groups based on their tumor characteristics. Five independent prognostic factors (age, preoperative increased carcinoembryonic antigen and carcinoma antigen 19-9, positive lymph node [PLN] number, tumor deposit [TD], pathological T classification) were identified and entered into the predictive nomogram. The bootstrap-corrected C-index was 0.757. RPA stratification of the three prognostic groups showed obviously different prognosis. Only the high-risk group (patients with PLN ≤ 6 and TD, or PLN > 6) benefited from ACRT plus ACT when compared with surgery followed by ACRT or ACT, and surgery alone (5-year CSS: 70.8% vs. 57.8% vs. 15.6%, P < 0.001). Our nomogram predicts 5-year CSS after TME surgery for locally advanced rectal cancer and RPA-based stratification indicates that ACRT plus ACT post-surgery may be an important treatment plan with potentially ignificant survival advantages in high-risk URC. This may help to select candidates of adjuvant treatment in prospective studies.

Analysing stratified medicine business models and value systems: innovation-regulation interactions.

PubMed

Mittra, James; Tait, Joyce

2012-09-15

Stratified medicine offers both opportunities and challenges to the conventional business models that drive pharmaceutical R&D. Given the increasingly unsustainable blockbuster model of drug development, due in part to maturing product pipelines, alongside increasing demands from regulators, healthcare providers and patients for higher standards of safety, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of new therapies, stratified medicine promises a range of benefits to pharmaceutical and diagnostic firms as well as healthcare providers and patients. However, the transition from 'blockbusters' to what might now be termed 'niche-busters' will require the adoption of new, innovative business models, the identification of different and perhaps novel types of value along the R&D pathway, and a smarter approach to regulation to facilitate innovation in this area. In this paper we apply the Innogen Centre's interdisciplinary ALSIS methodology, which we have developed for the analysis of life science innovation systems in contexts where the value creation process is lengthy, expensive and highly uncertain, to this emerging field of stratified medicine. In doing so, we consider the complex collaboration, timing, coordination and regulatory interactions that shape business models, value chains and value systems relevant to stratified medicine. More specifically, we explore in some depth two convergence models for co-development of a therapy and diagnostic before market authorisation, highlighting the regulatory requirements and policy initiatives within the broader value system environment that have a key role in determining the probable success and sustainability of these models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Concurrent Androgen Deprivation Therapy During Salvage Prostate Radiotherapy Improves Treatment Outcomes in High-Risk Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soto, Daniel E., E-mail: dsoto2@partners.org; Passarelli, Michael N.; Daignault, Stephanie

2012-03-01

Purpose: To determine whether concurrent androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) during salvage radiotherapy (RT) improves prostate cancer treatment outcomes. Methods and Materials: A total of 630 postprostatectomy patients were retrospectively identified who were treated with three-dimensional conformal RT. Of these, 441 were found to be treated for salvage indications. Biochemical failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen (PSA) of 0.2 ng/mL or greater above nadir with another PSA increase or the initiation of salvage ADT. Progression-free survival (PFS) was defined as the absence of biochemical failure, continued PSA rise despite salvage therapy, initiation of systemic therapy, clinical progression, or distant failure. Multivariate-adjustedmore » Cox proportional hazards modeling was performed to determine which factors predict PFS. Results: Low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients made up 10%, 24%, and 66% of patients, respectively. The mean RT dose was 68 Gy. Twenty-four percent of patients received concurrent ADT (cADT). Regional pelvic nodes were treated in 16% of patients. With a median follow-up of 3 years, the 3-year PFS was 4.0 years for cADT vs. 3.4 years for cADT patients (p = 0.22). Multivariate analysis showed that concurrent ADT (p = 0.05), Gleason score (p < 0.001), and pre-RT PSA (p = 0.03) were independent predictors of PFS. When patients were stratified by risk group, the benefits of cADT (hazard ratio, 0.65; p = 0.046) were significant only for high-risk patients. Conclusions: This retrospective study showed a PFS benefit of concurrent ADT during salvage prostate RT. This benefit was observed only in high-risk patients.« less

Detectable end of radiation prostate specific antigen assists in identifying men with unfavorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer at high risk of distant recurrence and cancer-specific mortality.

PubMed

Hayman, Jonathan; Phillips, Ryan; Chen, Di; Perin, Jamie; Narang, Amol K; Trieu, Janson; Radwan, Noura; Greco, Stephen; Deville, Curtiland; McNutt, Todd; Song, Daniel Y; DeWeese, Theodore L; Tran, Phuoc T

2018-06-01

Undetectable End of Radiation PSA (EOR-PSA) has been shown to predict improved survival in prostate cancer (PCa). While validating the unfavorable intermediate-risk (UIR) and favorable intermediate-risk (FIR) stratifications among Johns Hopkins PCa patients treated with radiotherapy, we examined whether EOR-PSA could further risk stratify UIR men for survival. A total of 302 IR patients were identified in the Johns Hopkins PCa database (178 UIR, 124 FIR). Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable analysis was performed via Cox regression for biochemical recurrence free survival (bRFS), distant metastasis free survival (DMFS), and overall survival (OS), while a competing risks model was used for PCa specific survival (PCSS). Among the 235 patients with known EOR-PSA values, we then stratified by EOR-PSA and performed the aforementioned analysis. The median follow-up time was 11.5 years (138 months). UIR was predictive of worse DMFS and PCSS (P = 0.008 and P = 0.023) on multivariable analysis (MVA). Increased radiation dose was significant for improved DMFS (P = 0.016) on MVA. EOR-PSA was excluded from the models because it did not trend towards significance as a continuous or binary variable due to interaction with UIR, and we were unable to converge a multivariable model with a variable to control for this interaction. However, when stratifying by detectable versus undetectable EOR-PSA, UIR had worse DMFS and PCSS among detectable EOR-PSA patients, but not undetectable patients. UIR was significant on MVA among detectable EOR-PSA patients for DMFS (P = 0.021) and PCSS (P = 0.033), while RT dose also predicted PCSS (P = 0.013). EOR-PSA can assist in predicting DMFS and PCSS among UIR patients, suggesting a clinically meaningful time point for considering intensification of treatment in clinical trials of intermediate-risk men. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Nosocomial pneumonia risk and stress ulcer prophylaxis: a comparison of pantoprazole vs ranitidine in cardiothoracic surgery patients.

PubMed

Miano, Todd A; Reichert, Marc G; Houle, Timothy T; MacGregor, Drew A; Kincaid, Edward H; Bowton, David L

2009-08-01

Stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP) using ranitidine, a histamine H2 receptor antagonist, has been associated with an increased risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia. The proton pump inhibitor (PPI) pantoprazole is also commonly used for SUP. PPI use has been linked to an increased risk of community-acquired pneumonia. The objective of this study was to determine whether SUP with pantoprazole increases pneumonia risk compared with ranitidine in critically ill patients. The cardiothoracic surgery database at our institution was used to identify retrospectively all patients who had received SUP with pantoprazole or ranitidine, without crossover between agents. From January 1, 2004, to March 31, 2007, 887 patients were identified, with 53 patients excluded (pantoprazole, 30 patients; ranitidine, 23 patients). Our analysis compared the incidence of nosocomial pneumonia in 377 patients who received pantoprazole with 457 patients who received ranitidine. Nosocomial pneumonia developed in 35 of the 377 patients (9.3%) who received pantoprazole, compared with 7 of the 457 patients (1.5%) who received ranitidine (odds ratio [OR], 6.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.9 to 14.9). Twenty-three covariates were used to estimate the probability of receiving pantoprazole as measured by propensity score (C-index, 0.77). Using this score, pantoprazole and ranitidine patients were stratified according to their probability of receiving pantoprazole. After propensity adjusted, multivariable logistic regression, pantoprazole treatment was found to be an independent risk factor for nosocomial pneumonia (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.7; p = 0.034). The use of pantoprazole for SUP was associated with a higher risk of nosocomial pneumonia compared with ranitidine. This relationship warrants further study in a randomized controlled trial.

Performance of Stratified and Subgrouped Disproportionality Analyses in Spontaneous Databases.

PubMed

Seabroke, Suzie; Candore, Gianmario; Juhlin, Kristina; Quarcoo, Naashika; Wisniewski, Antoni; Arani, Ramin; Painter, Jeffery; Tregunno, Philip; Norén, G Niklas; Slattery, Jim

2016-04-01

Disproportionality analyses are used in many organisations to identify adverse drug reactions (ADRs) from spontaneous report data. Reporting patterns vary over time, with patient demographics, and between different geographical regions, and therefore subgroup analyses or adjustment by stratification may be beneficial. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of subgroup and stratified disproportionality analyses for a number of key covariates within spontaneous report databases of differing sizes and characteristics. Using a reference set of established ADRs, signal detection performance (sensitivity and precision) was compared for stratified, subgroup and crude (unadjusted) analyses within five spontaneous report databases (two company, one national and two international databases). Analyses were repeated for a range of covariates: age, sex, country/region of origin, calendar time period, event seriousness, vaccine/non-vaccine, reporter qualification and report source. Subgroup analyses consistently performed better than stratified analyses in all databases. Subgroup analyses also showed benefits in both sensitivity and precision over crude analyses for the larger international databases, whilst for the smaller databases a gain in precision tended to result in some loss of sensitivity. Additionally, stratified analyses did not increase sensitivity or precision beyond that associated with analytical artefacts of the analysis. The most promising subgroup covariates were age and region/country of origin, although this varied between databases. Subgroup analyses perform better than stratified analyses and should be considered over the latter in routine first-pass signal detection. Subgroup analyses are also clearly beneficial over crude analyses for larger databases, but further validation is required for smaller databases.

Glucocorticoid exposure and fracture risk in a cohort of US patients with selected conditions.

PubMed

Balasubramanian, A; Wade, S W; Adler, R A; Saag, K; Pannacciulli, N; Curtis, J R

2018-06-20

We evaluated systemic glucocorticoid exposure and fracture among patients with newly-diagnosed inflammatory and immune-modulated conditions. Using administrative data, inception cohorts of RA, asthma/COPD, IBD, MS, lupus, and sarcoidosis patients age 18-64 years with benefits coverage ≥12 months before diagnosis (1/1/2005-12/31/2012) were followed to clinical fracture, cancer diagnosis, or 12/31/2012. Glucocorticoid users were new to therapy. Fracture incidence rates (IR) per 1,000 person-years were stratified by prednisone equivalent doses. Cox's proportional hazards models assessed risk by daily and cumulative dose, and by time since discontinuation, adjusted for baseline characteristics. Most patients (72% of 403,337) had glucocorticoid exposure; 52% were under age 50. IR (95% confidence intervals [CI]) of any osteoporotic fracture was elevated at doses < 5 mg/day, IR: 9.33 [7.29, 11.77] versus 0 mg/day, IR: 4.87 [4.72, 5.02]). Fracture rates were elevated at doses < 5 mg/day in patients < 50 years and those ≥ 50 years. In both age groups, fracture risk increased with increasing cumulative exposure, being approximately 2.5-fold higher at cumulative dose ≥ 5400 mg compared to < 675 mg. At ≥ 5400 mg, IR were 5.69 [4.32, 7.35] in patients < 50 years and 17.10 [14.97, 19.46] in older patients. Fracture risk decreased significantly within months following glucocorticoid discontinuation. In patients with a variety of inflammatory conditions, fracture risk increased at doses as low as < 5 mg/day. Risk increased with increasing cumulative exposure and decreased soon following glucocorticoid discontinuation. Trends were similar between patients older and younger than 50 years. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

ACSNSQIP Risk Calculator in Indian Patients Undergoing Surgery for Head and Neck Cancers: Is It Valid?

PubMed

Subramaniam, Narayana; Balasubramanian, Deepak; Rka, Pradeep; Murthy, Samskruthi; Rathod, Priyank; Vidhyadharan, Sivakumar; Thankappan, Krishnakumar; Iyer, Subramania

2018-06-01

Pre-operative assessment is vital to determine patient-specific risks and minimize them in order to optimize surgical outcomes. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACSNSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator is the most comprehensive surgical risk assessment tool available. We performed this study to determine the validity of ACSNSQIP calculator when used to predict surgical complications in a cohort of patients with head and neck cancer treated in an Indian tertiary care center. Retrospective data was collected for 150 patients with head and neck cancer who were operated in the Department of Head and Neck Oncology, Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences, Kochi, in the year 2016. The predicted outcome data was compared with actual documented outcome data for the variables mentioned. Brier's score was used to estimate the predictive value of the risk assessment generated. Pearson's r coefficient was utilized to validate the prediction of length of hospital stay. Brier's score for the entire calculator was 0.32 (not significant). Additionally, when the score was determined for individual parameters (surgical site infection, pneumonia, etc.), none were significant. Pearson's r value for length of stay was also not significant ( p  = .632). The ACSNSQIP risk assessment tool did not accurately reflect surgical outcomes in our cohort of Indian patients. Although it is the most comprehensive tool available at present, modifications that may improve accuracy are allowing for input of multiple procedure codes, risk stratifying for previous radiation or surgery, and better risk assessment for microvascular flap reconstruction.

Relative risk of home hemodialysis attrition in patients using a telehealth platform.

PubMed

Weinhandl, Eric D; Collins, Allan J

2017-12-06

Home hemodialysis (HHD) facilitates increased treatment frequency, which may improve patient outcomes. However, attrition due to technique failure limits the clinical effectiveness of the modality. Nx2me Connected Health is a telehealth platform that enables ongoing assessment of HHD patients using NxStage equipment, and that may reduce patient burden. We aimed to assess whether use of Nx2me was associated with risk of HHD attrition. We compared risks of all-cause attrition, dialysis cessation (i.e., death or transplant), and technique failure in Nx2me users and matched control patients, using a retrospective cohort study. We also compared the likelihood of HHD training graduation in patients who initiated use of Nx2me during training with the likelihood in matched control patients. Matching factors included date of HHD initiation, NxStage treatment duration at initiation of follow-up, and prescribed treatment frequency. We used stratified Fine-Gray and Cox regression to compare risks, with adjustment for demographic factors and vascular access modality, and stratification by matched cluster. We identified 606 Nx2me users; 49.5% initiated use of Nx2me in <3 months after initiation of HHD with NxStage equipment. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) of all-cause attrition, dialysis cessation, and technique failure were 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.95), 1.10 (0.86-1.41), and 0.71 (0.57-0.87), respectively, for Nx2me users vs. matched controls. AHRs were similar in patients who initiated use of Nx2me in <3 months after initiation of HHD. The AHR of HHD training graduation was 1.61 (1.10-2.36) in patients who initiated use of Nx2me within 2 weeks of training initiation vs. matched controls. Use of Nx2me was associated with lower risk of all-cause attrition, lower risk of technique failure, and higher likelihood of HHD training graduation. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms by which use of a telehealth platform may improve clinical outcomes and

[Draft of the best medical treatment in patients with low-risk thyroid cancer].

PubMed

Vlček, Petr; Nováková, Dagmar; Vejvalka, Jan; Zimák, Jaroslav; Křenek, Martin; Vošmiková, Květuše; Smutný, Svatopluk; Bavor, Petr; Astl, Jaromír; Lukáš, Jindřich

2015-09-01

and follicular microcarcinoma size 10-15 mm. The histological initial finding captured unifocal type of cancer in 344 patients, multifocality in 123 patients, in 45 cases local metastases and in 3 cases of pulmonary metastases. Group D: 259 patients were monitored in this group with breast size 16-20 mm. At the initial finding was captured one bearing cancer in 188 patients, multifocality in 71 patients, in 24 cases evidence of local metastases and 2 patients had a case of distant lung metastases. In patients in whom risk factors were found, radioiodine treatment was indicated. This included 744 patients. In this group of patients after a year or more, relapse was observed in 74 patients (9.94 %). In 1 236 patients who did not undergo radioiodine treatment, there was a relapse in 49 patients (3.96 %). Based on our analysis, it is necessary to stratify the risk of relapse according to risk factors. In case of missed radioiodine therapy in patients with low-risk cancer without confirmed risk factors, it is also necessary to have regular clinical, laboratory and ultrasound examination. It is important to distinguish patients with risk factors that may contribute to disease recurrence. Only in this way, on one hand we prevent excessive treatment of patients with low-risk thyroid cancer which leads to increased cost of health care, and on the other hand prevent reduced level of care for patients with an increase in relapses.

Results of a systematic literature review of treatment modalities for jugulotympanic paraganglioma, stratified per Fisch class.

PubMed

Jansen, T T G; Timmers, H J L M; Marres, H A M; Kaanders, J H A M; Kunst, H P M

2018-04-01

Key for successful jugulotympanic paraganglioma management is a personalised approach aiming for the best practice for each individual patient. To this end, a systematic review is performed, evaluating the local control and complication rates for the different treatment modalities stratified by the broadly accepted Fisch classification. A systematic literature review according to the PRISMA statement was performed. A detailed overview of individual treatment outcomes per Fisch class is provided. Local control, cranial nerve damage, complications, function recovery. Eighteen studies were selected, resembling 83 patients treated with radiotherapy and 299 with surgery. Excellent local control was found post-surgery for class A and B tumours, and risk of cranial nerve damage was <1%. For class C1-4 tumours, local control was 80%-95% post-surgery (84% post-radiotherapy), and cranial nerve damage was found in 71%-76% (none post-radiotherapy; P < .05). There was no difference in treatment outcomes between tumours of different C class. For class C1-4De/Di tumours, local control was 38%-86% (98% post-radiotherapy; P < .05) and cranial nerve damage/complication rates were 67%-100% (3% post-radiotherapy; P < .05). C1-4DeDi tumours showed lesser local control and cranial nerve damage rates when compared to C1-4De tumours. An individual risk is constituted for surgery and radiotherapy, stratified per Fisch class. For class A and B tumours, surgery is a suitable treatment option. For class C and D tumours, radiotherapy results in lower complication rates and similar or better local control rates when compared to the surgical group. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prognostic value of MACC1 and proficient mismatch repair status for recurrence risk prediction in stage II colon cancer patients: the BIOGRID studies.

PubMed

Rohr, U-P; Herrmann, P; Ilm, K; Zhang, H; Lohmann, S; Reiser, A; Muranyi, A; Smith, J; Burock, S; Osterland, M; Leith, K; Singh, S; Brunhoeber, P; Bowermaster, R; Tie, J; Christie, M; Wong, H-L; Waring, P; Shanmugam, K; Gibbs, P; Stein, U

2017-08-01

We assessed the novel MACC1 gene to further stratify stage II colon cancer patients with proficient mismatch repair (pMMR). Four cohorts with 596 patients were analyzed: Charité 1 discovery cohort was assayed for MACC1 mRNA expression and MMR in cryo-preserved tumors. Charité 2 comparison cohort was used to translate MACC1 qRT-PCR analyses to FFPE samples. In the BIOGRID 1 training cohort MACC1 mRNA levels were related to MACC1 protein levels from immunohistochemistry in FFPE sections; also analyzed for MMR. Chemotherapy-naïve pMMR patients were stratified by MACC1 mRNA and protein expression to establish risk groups based on recurrence-free survival (RFS). Risk stratification from BIOGRID 1 was confirmed in the BIOGRID 2 validation cohort. Pooled BIOGRID datasets produced a best effect-size estimate. In BIOGRID 1, using qRT-PCR and immunohistochemistry for MACC1 detection, pMMR/MACC1-low patients had a lower recurrence probability versus pMMR/MACC1-high patients (5-year RFS of 92% and 67% versus 100% and 68%, respectively). In BIOGRID 2, longer RFS was confirmed for pMMR/MACC1-low versus pMMR/MACC1-high patients (5-year RFS of 100% versus 90%, respectively). In the pooled dataset, 6.5% of patients were pMMR/MACC1-low with no disease recurrence, resulting in a 17% higher 5-year RFS [95% confidence interval (CI) (12.6%-21.3%)] versus pMMR/MACC1-high patients (P = 0.037). Outcomes were similar for pMMR/MACC1-low and deficient MMR (dMMR) patients (5-year RFS of 100% and 96%, respectively). MACC1 expression stratifies colon cancer patients with unfavorable pMMR status. Stage II colon cancer patients with pMMR/MACC1-low tumors have a similar favorable prognosis to those with dMMR with potential implications for the role of adjuvant therapy. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Design of dry sand soil stratified sampler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Erkang; Chen, Wei; Feng, Xiao; Liao, Hongbo; Liang, Xiaodong

2018-04-01

This paper presents a design of a stratified sampler for dry sand soil, which can be used for stratified sampling of loose sand under certain conditions. Our group designed the mechanical structure of a portable, single - person, dry sandy soil stratified sampler. We have set up a mathematical model for the sampler. It lays the foundation for further development of design research.

First detection of mycobacteria in African rodents and insectivores, using stratified pool screening.

PubMed

Durnez, Lies; Eddyani, Miriam; Mgode, Georgies F; Katakweba, Abdul; Katholi, Charles R; Machang'u, Robert R; Kazwala, Rudovik R; Portaels, Françoise; Leirs, Herwig

2008-02-01

With the rising number of patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS in developing countries, the control of mycobacteria is of growing importance. Previous studies have shown that rodents and insectivores are carriers of mycobacteria. However, it is not clear how widespread mycobacteria are in these animals and what their role is in spreading them. Therefore, the prevalence of mycobacteria in rodents and insectivores was studied in and around Morogoro, Tanzania. Live rodents were trapped, with three types of live traps, in three habitats. Pieces of organs were pooled per habitat, species, and organ type (stratified pooling); these sample pools were examined for the presence of mycobacteria by PCR, microscopy, and culture methods. The mycobacterial isolates were identified using phenotypic techniques and sequencing. In total, 708 small mammals were collected, 31 of which were shrews. By pool prevalence estimation, 2.65% of the animals were carriers of mycobacteria, with a higher prevalence in the urban areas and in Cricetomys gambianus and the insectivore Crocidura hirta. Nontuberculous mycobacteria (Mycobacterium chimaera, M. intracellulare, M. arupense, M. parascrofulaceum, and Mycobacterium spp.) were isolated from C. gambianus, Mastomys natalensis, and C. hirta. This study is the first to report findings of mycobacteria in African rodents and insectivores and the first in mycobacterial ecology to estimate the prevalence of mycobacteria after stratified pool screening. The fact that small mammals in urban areas carry more mycobacteria than those in the fields and that potentially pathogenic mycobacteria were isolated identifies a risk for other animals and humans, especially HIV/AIDS patients, that have a weakened immune system.

Stratified flows in complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retallack, Charles

The focus of this dissertation is the study of stratified atmospheric flows in the presence of complex terrain. Two large-scale field study campaigns were carried out, each with a focus on a specific archetypal terrain. Each field study involved the utilization of remote and in-situ atmospheric monitoring devices to collect experimental data. The first of the two field studies focused on pollution transport mechanisms near an escarpment. The analysis aimed to determine the combined effect of the escarpment and ambient density stratification on the flow and aerosol pollution transport. It was found that under specific atmospheric conditions, the escarpment prompted the channeling, down-mixing, and trapping of aerosol pollutant plumes. The objective of the second field campaign was the study of stratified flows in a mountain valley. Analysis revealed that buoyancy driven katabatic currents originating on the surrounding valley slopes created a scenario in which a down-slope gravity current transitioned into an intrusive gravity current. The intrusive gravity current propagated near the interface of a density stratified lower ambient layer and a non-stratified upper ambient layer. A combination of shallow water theory and energy arguments is used to produce a model for the propagation of a gravity current moving along the interface of a homogeneous ambient layer and a linearly stratified layer. It is found that the gravity current propagating entirely within the homogeneous layer travels at the greatest speed. As the relative density of the gravity current is increased, the gravity current begins to slump below the interface of the two layers and the propagation speed decreases.

Increased risk of concurrent gastroesophageal reflux disease among patients with Sjögren's syndrome: A nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Chang, Chen-Shu; Liao, Chun-Hui; Muo, Chih-Hsin; Kao, Chia-Huang

2016-06-01

Little data is available on the risk of gastroesophageal reflux disease in patients diagnosed with Sjögren's syndrome. We identified 4650 Sjögren's syndrome patients between 2000 and 2011 from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Each Sjögren's syndrome patient was matched to 4 controls based on age, sex, and index year, and all subjects were followed up from the index date to December 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate the risk of gastroesophageal reflux disease. The risk of gastroesophageal reflux disease for Sjögren's syndrome patients was 2.41-fold greater than that for the comparison cohort after adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities. In age stratified analyses, the youngest Sjögren's syndrome cohort (age: 20-44years old) had the highest risk (HR=3.02; 95% CI=2.48-3.69) and the lowest risk at age ≥65years (HR=1.95; 95% CI=1.61-2.36). Regardless of in subjects with and without comorbidity, Sjögren's syndrome patients had a higher risk than the controls. Sjögren's syndrome subjects with ischemic heart disease, hyperlipidemia and renal disease had the highest risk for gastroesophageal reflux disease compared with the comparison cohort without those diseases (HR=7.67; 95% CI=5.32-11.1). Patients with Sjögren's syndrome have a significantly greater risk of developing subsequent gastroesophageal reflux disease than the general population. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

2017-09-01

The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

Prognostic factors and risk stratification in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer receiving docetaxel-based chemotherapy.

PubMed

Yamashita, Shimpei; Kohjimoto, Yasuo; Iguchi, Takashi; Koike, Hiroyuki; Kusumoto, Hiroki; Iba, Akinori; Kikkawa, Kazuro; Kodama, Yoshiki; Matsumura, Nagahide; Hara, Isao

2016-03-22

While novel drugs have been developed, docetaxel remains one of the standard initial systemic therapies for castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) patients. Despite the excellent anti-tumor effect of docetaxel, its severe adverse effects sometimes distress patients. Therefore, it would be very helpful to predict the efficacy of docetaxel before treatment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the potential value of patient characteristics in predicting overall survival (OS) and to develop a risk classification for CRPC patients treated with docetaxel-based chemotherapy. This study included 79 patients with CRPC treated with docetaxel. The variables, including patient characteristics at diagnosis and at the start of chemotherapy, were retrospectively collected. Prognostic factors predicting OS were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Risk stratification for overall survival was determined based on the results of multivariate analysis. PSA response ≥50 % was observed in 55 (69.6 %) of all patients, and the median OS was 22.5 months. The multivariate analysis showed that age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were independent prognostic factors for OS. In addition, ECOG performance status (PS) and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant but were considered possible predictors for OS. Risk stratification according to the number of these risk factors could effectively stratify CRPC patients treated with docetaxel in terms of OS. Age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were identified as independent prognostic factors of OS. ECOG PS and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant, but were considered possible predictors for OS in Japanese CRPC patients treated with docetaxel. Risk stratification based on these factors could be helpful for estimating overall survival.

Stratified Charge Engines

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-01-01

This report reviews stratified charge concepts and engines, with emphasis on the important issues of exhaust emissions, fuel economy, and performance. Divided and open chamber designs are discussed. Potential improvements in exhaust emissions and fue...

The clinical benefits, ethics, and economics of stratified medicine and companion diagnostics.

PubMed

Trusheim, Mark R; Berndt, Ernst R

2015-12-01

The stratified medicine companion diagnostic (CDx) cut-off decision integrates scientific, clinical, ethical, and commercial considerations, and determines its value to developers, providers, payers, and patients. Competition already sharpens these issues in oncology, and might soon do the same for emerging stratified medicines in autoimmune, cardiovascular, neurodegenerative, respiratory, and other conditions. Of 53 oncology targets with a launched therapeutic, 44 have competing therapeutics. Only 12 of 141 Phase III candidates addressing new targets face no competition. CDx choices might alter competitive positions and reimbursement. Under current diagnostic incentives, payers see novel stratified medicines that improve public health and increase costs, but do not observe companion diagnostics for legacy treatments that would reduce costs. It would be in the interests of payers to rediscover their heritage of direct investment in diagnostic development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Filaggrin-stratified transcriptomic analysis of pediatric skin identifies mechanistic pathways in patients with atopic dermatitis.

PubMed

Cole, Christian; Kroboth, Karin; Schurch, Nicholas J; Sandilands, Aileen; Sherstnev, Alexander; O'Regan, Grainne M; Watson, Rosemarie M; McLean, W H Irwin; Barton, Geoffrey J; Irvine, Alan D; Brown, Sara J

2014-07-01

Atopic dermatitis (AD; eczema) is characterized by a widespread abnormality in cutaneous barrier function and propensity to inflammation. Filaggrin is a multifunctional protein and plays a key role in skin barrier formation. Loss-of-function mutations in the gene encoding filaggrin (FLG) are a highly significant risk factor for atopic disease, but the molecular mechanisms leading to dermatitis remain unclear. We sought to interrogate tissue-specific variations in the expressed genome in the skin of children with AD and to investigate underlying pathomechanisms in atopic skin. We applied single-molecule direct RNA sequencing to analyze the whole transcriptome using minimal tissue samples. Uninvolved skin biopsy specimens from 26 pediatric patients with AD were compared with site-matched samples from 10 nonatopic teenage control subjects. Cases and control subjects were screened for FLG genotype to stratify the data set. Two thousand four hundred thirty differentially expressed genes (false discovery rate, P < .05) were identified, of which 211 were significantly upregulated and 490 downregulated by greater than 2-fold. Gene ontology terms for "extracellular space" and "defense response" were enriched, whereas "lipid metabolic processes" were downregulated. The subset of FLG wild-type cases showed dysregulation of genes involved with lipid metabolism, whereas filaggrin haploinsufficiency affected global gene expression and was characterized by a type 1 interferon-mediated stress response. These analyses demonstrate the importance of extracellular space and lipid metabolism in atopic skin pathology independent of FLG genotype, whereas an aberrant defense response is seen in subjects with FLG mutations. Genotype stratification of the large data set has facilitated functional interpretation and might guide future therapy development. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Stratification Methods and Provision of Care Management Services in Comprehensive Primary Care Initiative Practices.

PubMed

Reddy, Ashok; Sessums, Laura; Gupta, Reshma; Jin, Janel; Day, Tim; Finke, Bruce; Bitton, Asaf

2017-09-01

Risk-stratified care management is essential to improving population health in primary care settings, but evidence is limited on the type of risk stratification method and its association with care management services. We describe risk stratification patterns and association with care management services for primary care practices in the Comprehensive Primary Care (CPC) initiative. We undertook a qualitative approach to categorize risk stratification methods being used by CPC practices and tested whether these stratification methods were associated with delivery of care management services. CPC practices reported using 4 primary methods to stratify risk for their patient populations: a practice-developed algorithm (n = 215), the American Academy of Family Physicians' clinical algorithm (n = 155), payer claims and electronic health records (n = 62), and clinical intuition (n = 52). CPC practices using practice-developed algorithm identified the most number of high-risk patients per primary care physician (282 patients, P = .006). CPC practices using clinical intuition had the most high-risk patients in care management and a greater proportion of high-risk patients receiving care management per primary care physician (91 patients and 48%, P =.036 and P =.128, respectively). CPC practices used 4 primary methods to identify high-risk patients. Although practices that developed their own algorithm identified the greatest number of high-risk patients, practices that used clinical intuition connected the greatest proportion of patients to care management services. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Determining 30-day readmission risk for heart failure patients: the Readmission After Heart Failure scale

PubMed Central

Chamberlain, Ronald S; Sond, Jaswinder; Mahendraraj, Krishnaraj; Lau, Christine SM; Siracuse, Brianna L

2018-01-01

Background Chronic heart failure (CHF), which affects >5 million Americans, accounts for >1 million hospitalizations annually. As a part of the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program, the Affordable Care Act requires that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services reduce payments to hospitals with excess readmissions. This study sought to develop a scale that reliably predicts readmission rates among patients with CHF. Methods The State Inpatient Database (2006–2011) was utilized, and discharge data including demographic and clinical characteristics on 642,448 patients with CHF from California and New York (derivation cohort) and 365,359 patients with CHF from Florida and Washington (validation cohort) were extracted. The Readmission After Heart Failure (RAHF) scale was developed to predict readmission risk. Results The 30-day readmission rates were 9.42 and 9.17% (derivation and validation cohorts, respectively). Age <65 years, male gender, first income quartile, African American race, race other than African American or Caucasian, Medicare, Medicaid, self-pay/no insurance, drug abuse, renal failure, chronic pulmonary disorder, diabetes, depression, and fluid and electrolyte disorder were associated with higher readmission risk after hospitalization for CHF. The RAHF scale was created and explained the 95% of readmission variability within the validation cohort. The RAHF scale was then used to define the following three levels of risk for readmission: low (RAHF score <12; 7.58% readmission rate), moderate (RAHF score 12–15; 9.78% readmission rate), and high (RAHF score >15; 12.04% readmission rate). The relative risk of readmission was 1.67 for the high-risk group compared with the low-risk group. Conclusion The RAHF scale reliably predicts a patient’s 30-day CHF readmission risk based on demographic and clinical factors present upon initial admission. By risk-stratifying patients, using models such as the RAHF scale, strategies tailored to each patient

Obesity and Risk of Biochemical Failure for Patients Receiving Salvage Radiotherapy After Prostatectomy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, Christopher R.; Spiotto, Michael T.; Kapp, Daniel S.

Purpose: Obesity has been proposed as an independent risk factor for patients undergoing surgery or radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer. Using body mass index (BMI) as a measure of obesity, we tested its role as a risk factor for patients receiving salvage RT after prostatectomy. Methods and Materials: Rates of subsequent biochemical relapse were examined in 90 patients who underwent salvage RT between 1984 and 2004 for biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy. Median follow-up was 3.7 years. The BMI was tested as a continuous and categorical variable (stratified as <25, 25-<30, and {>=}30 kg/m{sup 2}). Univariate and multivariate proportional hazardsmore » regression analyses were performed for clinical, pathologic, and treatment factors associated with time to relapse after salvage RT. Results: There were 40 biochemical failures after salvage RT with a median time to failure of 1.2 years. The BMI was not associated with adverse clinical, pathologic, or treatment factors. On multivariate analysis, obesity was independently significant (hazard ratio [HR], 1.2; p = 0.01), along with RT dose (HR, 0.7; p = 0.003) and pre-RT prostate-specific antigen level (HR, 1.2; p = 0.0003). Conclusions: This study is weakly suggestive that obesity may be a risk factor for salvage RT patients. Whether this results from greater biologic aggressiveness or technical inadequacies cannot be answered by this study. Given the very high failure rate observed for severely obese patients, we propose that technical difficulties with RT are at play. This hypothesis is supported by the RT literature and could be prospectively investigated. Techniques that optimize targeting, especially in obese patients, perhaps seem warranted at this time.« less

Quantifying factors for the success of stratified medicine.

PubMed

Trusheim, Mark R; Burgess, Breon; Hu, Sean Xinghua; Long, Theresa; Averbuch, Steven D; Flynn, Aiden A; Lieftucht, Alfons; Mazumder, Abhijit; Milloy, Judy; Shaw, Peter M; Swank, David; Wang, Jian; Berndt, Ernst R; Goodsaid, Federico; Palmer, Michael C

2011-10-31

Co-developing a drug with a diagnostic to create a stratified medicine - a therapy that is targeted to a specific patient population on the basis of a clinical characteristic such as a biomarker that predicts treatment response - presents challenges for product developers, regulators, payers and physicians. With the aim of developing a shared framework and tools for addressing these challenges, here we present an analysis using data from case studies in oncology and Alzheimer's disease, coupled with integrated computational modelling of clinical outcomes and developer economic value, to quantify the effects of decisions related to key issues such as the design of clinical trials. This illustrates how such analyses can aid the coordination of diagnostic and drug development, and the selection of optimal development and commercialization strategies. It also illustrates the impact of the interplay of these factors on the economic feasibility of stratified medicine, which has important implications for public policy makers.

Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill Versus the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002: Are They Comparable for Assessing Risk of Malnutrition in Critically Ill Patients?

PubMed

Canales, Cecilia; Elsayes, Ali; Yeh, D Dante; Belcher, Donna; Nakayama, Anna; McCarthy, Caitlin M; Chokengarmwong, Nalin; Quraishi, Sadeq A

2018-05-30

Malnutrition influences clinical outcomes. Although various screening tools are available to assess nutrition status, their use in the intensive care unit (ICU) has not been rigorously studied. Our goal was to compare the Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (NUTRIC) to the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002 in terms of their associations with macronutrient deficit in ICU patients. We performed a retrospective analysis to investigate the relationship between NUTRIC vs NRS 2002 and macronutrient deficit (protein and calories) in critically ill patients. We performed linear regression analyses, controlling for age, sex, race, body mass index, and ICU length of stay. We then dichotomized our primary exposures and outcomes to perform logistic regression analyses, controlling for the same covariates. The analytic cohort included 312 adults. Mean NUTRIC and NRS 2002 scores were 4 ± 2 and 4 ± 1, respectively. Linear regression demonstrated that each increment in NUTRIC score was associated with a 49 g higher protein deficit (β = 48.70: 95% confidence interval [CI] 29.23-68.17) and a 752 kcal higher caloric deficit (β = 751.95; 95% CI 447.80-1056.09). Logistic regression demonstrated that NUTRIC scores >4 had over twice the odds of protein deficits ≥300 g (odds ratio [OR] 2.35; 95% CI 1.43-3.85) and caloric deficits ≥6000 kcal (OR 2.73; 95% CI 1.66-4.50) compared with NUTRIC scores ≤4. We did not observe an association of NRS 2002 scores with macronutrient deficit. Our data suggest that NUTRIC is superior to NRS 2002 for assessing malnutrition risk in ICU patients. Randomized, controlled studies are needed to determine whether nutrition interventions, stratified by NUTRIC score, can improve patient outcomes. © 2018 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

Risk of Clostridium difficile Infection in Patients With Celiac Disease: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Lebwohl, Benjamin; Nobel, Yael R; Green, Peter H R; Blaser, Martin J; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-12-01

Patients with celiac disease are at increased risk for infections such as tuberculosis, influenza, and pneumococcal pneumonia. However, little is known about the incidence of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in patients with celiac disease. We identified patients with celiac disease based on intestinal biopsies submitted to all pathology departments in Sweden over a 39-year period (from July 1969 through February 2008). We compared risk of CDI (based on stratified Cox proportional hazards models) among patients with celiac disease vs. without celiac disease (controls) matched by age, sex, and calendar period. We identified 28,339 patients with celiac disease and 141,588 controls; neither group had a history of CDI. The incidence of CDI was 56/100,000 person-years among patients with celiac disease and 26/100,000 person-years among controls, yielding an overall hazard ratio (HR) of 2.01 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.64-2.47; P<0.0001). The risk of CDI was highest in the first 12 months after diagnosis of celiac disease (HR, 5.20; 95% CI, 2.81-9.62; P<0.0001), but remained high, compared to that of controls, 1-5 years after diagnosis (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.22-2.81; P=0.004). Among 493 patients with CDI, antibiotic data were available for 251; there were no significant differences in prior exposures to antibiotics between patients with celiac disease and controls. In a large population-based cohort study, patients with celiac disease had significantly higher incidence of CDI than controls. This finding is consistent with prior findings of higher rates of other infections in patients with celiac disease, and suggests the possibility of altered gut immunity and/or microbial composition in patients with celiac disease.

Biological and Genomic Differences of ERG Oncoprotein-Stratified Prostate Cancers from African and Caucasian Americans

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-13-2-0096 TITLE: Biological and Genomic Differences of ERG Oncoprotein-Stratified Prostate Cancers from African and...Biological and Genomic Differences of ERG Oncoprotein-Stratified Prostate Cancers from African and Caucasian Americans Sb. GRANT NUMBER W81 XWH-13-2...differences in the distribution of key clinico-pathologic patient features and molecular determinants for both ERG positive and ERG negative prostate cancer

Multislice computed tomography coronary angiography for risk stratification in patients with an intermediate pretest likelihood.

PubMed

van Werkhoven, J M; Gaemperli, O; Schuijf, J D; Jukema, J W; Kroft, L J; Leschka, S; Alkadhi, H; Valenta, I; Pundziute, G; de Roos, A; van der Wall, E E; Kaufmann, P A; Bax, J J

2009-10-01

To assess whether multislice computed tomography coronary angiography (MSCTA) may be useful for risk stratification of patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) at intermediate pretest likelihood according to Diamond and Forrester. MSCTA images were evaluated for the presence of significant CAD in 316 patients with suspected CAD (60% male, average (SD) age 57 (11) years) and an intermediate pretest likelihood according to Diamond and Forrester. Patients were followed up to determine the occurrence of an event. A combined end point of all-cause mortality, non-fatal infarction and unstable angina requiring revascularisation. Significant CAD was seen in 89 patients (28%), whereas normal MSCTA or non-significant CAD was seen in the remaining 227 (72%) patients. During follow-up (median 621 days (25-75th centile 408-835) an event occurred in 13 patients (4.8%). The annualised event rate was 0.8% in patients with normal MSCT, 2.2% in patients with non-significant CAD and 6.5% in patients with significant CAD. Moreover, MSCTA remained a significant predictor (p<0.05) of events after multivariate correction (hazard ratio = 3.460 (95% CI 1.142 to 10.480). The results suggest that in patients with an intermediate pretest likelihood, MSCTA is highly effective in re-stratifying patients into either a low or high post-test risk group. These results further emphasise the usefulness of non-invasive imaging with MSCTA in this patient population.

Stress cardiac magnetic resonance imaging provides effective cardiac risk reclassification in patients with known or suspected stable coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Shah, Ravi; Heydari, Bobak; Coelho-Filho, Otavio; Murthy, Venkatesh L; Abbasi, Siddique; Feng, Jiazhuo H; Pencina, Michael; Neilan, Tomas G; Meadows, Judith L; Francis, Sanjeev; Blankstein, Ron; Steigner, Michael; di Carli, Marcelo; Jerosch-Herold, Michael; Kwong, Raymond Y

2013-08-06

A recent large-scale clinical trial found that an initial invasive strategy does not improve cardiac outcomes beyond optimized medical therapy in patients with stable coronary artery disease. Novel methods to stratify at-risk patients may refine therapeutic decisions to improve outcomes. In a cohort of 815 consecutive patients referred for evaluation of myocardial ischemia, we determined the net reclassification improvement of the risk of cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (major adverse cardiac events) incremental to clinical risk models, using guideline-based low (<1%), moderate (1% to 3%), and high (>3%) annual risk categories. In the whole cohort, inducible ischemia demonstrated a strong association with major adverse cardiac events (hazard ratio=14.66; P<0.0001) with low negative event rates of major adverse cardiac events and cardiac death (0.6% and 0.4%, respectively). This prognostic robustness was maintained in patients with previous coronary artery disease (hazard ratio=8.17; P<0.0001; 1.3% and 0.6%, respectively). Adding inducible ischemia to the multivariable clinical risk model (adjusted for age and previous coronary artery disease) improved discrimination of major adverse cardiac events (C statistic, 0.81-0.86; P=0.04; adjusted hazard ratio=7.37; P<0.0001) and reclassified 91.5% of patients at moderate pretest risk (65.7% to low risk; 25.8% to high risk) with corresponding changes in the observed event rates (0.3%/y and 4.9%/y for low and high risk posttest, respectively). Categorical net reclassification index was 0.229 (95% confidence interval, 0.063-0.391). Continuous net reclassification improvement was 1.11 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.39). Stress cardiac magnetic resonance imaging effectively reclassifies patient risk beyond standard clinical variables, specifically in patients at moderate to high pretest clinical risk and in patients with previous coronary artery disease. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT

Risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma incorporating revised IMWG diagnostic criteria.

PubMed

Lakshman, Arjun; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Buadi, Francis K; Binder, Moritz; Gertz, Morie A; Lacy, Martha Q; Dispenzieri, Angela; Dingli, David; Fonder, Amie L; Hayman, Suzanne R; Hobbs, Miriam A; Gonsalves, Wilson I; Hwa, Yi Lisa; Kapoor, Prashant; Leung, Nelson; Go, Ronald S; Lin, Yi; Kourelis, Taxiarchis V; Warsame, Rahma; Lust, John A; Russell, Stephen J; Zeldenrust, Steven R; Kyle, Robert A; Kumar, Shaji K

2018-06-12

In 2014, the International Myeloma Working Group reclassified patients with smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) and bone marrow-plasma cell percentage (BMPC%) ≥ 60%, or serum free light chain ratio (FLCr) ≥ 100 or >1 focal lesion on magnetic resonance imaging as multiple myeloma (MM). Predictors of progression in patients currently classified as SMM are not known. We identified 421 patients with SMM, diagnosed between 2003 and 2015. The median time to progression (TTP) was 57 months (CI, 45-72). BMPC% > 20% [hazard ratio (HR): 2.28 (CI, 1.63-3.20); p < 0.0001]; M-protein > 2g/dL [HR: 1.56 (CI, 1.11-2.20); p = 0.01], and FLCr > 20 [HR: 2.13 (CI, 1.55-2.93); p < 0.0001] independently predicted shorter TTP in multivariate analysis. Age and immunoparesis were not significant. We stratified patients into three groups: low risk (none of the three risk factors; n = 143); intermediate risk (one of the three risk factors; n = 121); and high risk (≥2 of the three risk factors; n = 153). The median TTP for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 110, 68, and 29 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). BMPC% > 20%, M-protein > 2 g/dL, and FLCr > 20 at diagnosis can be used to risk stratify patients with SMM. Patients with high-risk SMM need close follow-up and are candidates for clinical trials aiming to prevent progression.

AGE-Related Differences of Novel Atherosclerotic Risk Factors and Angiographic Profile Among Gujarati Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients

PubMed Central

Joshi, Hasit; Sahoo, Sibasis; Virpariya, Kapil; Parmar, Meena; Shah, Komal

2015-01-01

Context Although numerous risk factors have been established to predict the development of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), the risk factor profile may be different between the younger and older individuals. Aim To analyse the frequency and pattern of atherogenic risk factors and angiographic profiles in age-stratified Gujarati patients with ACS. Materials and Methods ACS patients undergoing coronary angiography at U.N. Mehta Institute of Cardiology and Research, Gujarat, India between January 2008 and December 2012 were classified in to two age groups with 40y as cut-off. Patients were assessed for conventional risk factors (diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, smoking, obesity), novel risk factors (high sensitivity C-reactive protein, lipoprotein (a), homocysteine), and angiographic profiles.The statistical difference between two age groups was determined by Student’s t-test for continuous variables and Chi-square or Fisher’s exact test for categorical variables. Results A total of 200 patients, 100 patients ≤40 y of age and 100 patients >40 y of age, were evaluated. Older patients had higher frequency of hypertension (32 vs. 16%, p=0.008), while family history of coronary artery disease was more common among younger patients (19 vs. 9%, p=0.041). The incidence of diabetes, dyslipidaemia, smoking and tobacco chewing did not vary significantly between the two groups. Total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were significantly higher in the younger group (p<0.05). Lipoprotein (a), homocysteine and high-sensitivity C reactive protein levels were comparable between two age groups. Multi-vessel coronary artery disease was more common among older group. The most commonly affected coronary artery was the left anterior descending artery among younger patients (44%) and the left circumflex artery among older patients (38.1%). Conclusion Young patients with ACS had different atherosclerotic risk profile and less extensive coronary

Systemic risk score evaluation in ischemic stroke patients (SCALA): a prospective cross sectional study in 85 German stroke units.

PubMed

Weimar, Christian; Goertler, Michael; Röther, Joachim; Ringelstein, E Bernd; Darius, Harald; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Kim, In-Ha; Theobald, Karlheinz; Diener, Han-Christoph

2007-11-01

Stratification of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke (IS) by risk of recurrent stroke can contribute to optimized secondary prevention. We therefore aimed to assess cardiovascular risk factor profiles of consecutive patients hospitalized with TIA/IS to stratify the risk of recurrent stroke according to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and of future cardiovascular events according to the ankle brachial index (ABI) as a marker of generalized atherosclerosis In this cross-sectional observational study, 85 neurological stroke units throughout Germany documented cardiovascular risk factor profiles of 10 consecutive TIA/IS patients on standardized questionnaires. Screening for PAD was done with Doppler ultrasonography to calculate the ABI. A total of 852 patients (57% men) with a mean age of 67+/-12.4 years were included of whom 82.9 % had IS. The median National Institutes of Health stroke sum score was 4 (TIA: 1). Arterial hypertension was reported in 71%, diabetes mellitus in 26%, clinical PAD in 10%, and an ABI < or = 0.9 in 51%. An ESRS > or = 3 was observed in 58%, which in two previous retrospective analyses corresponded to a recurrent stroke risk of > or = 4%/year. The correlation between the ESRS and the ABI was low (r = 0.21). A high proportion of patients had asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease and a considerable risk of recurrent stroke according to the ABI and ESRS category. The prognostic accuracy as well as the potential benefit of various risk stratification scores in secondary stroke prevention require validation in a larger prospective study.

Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade score performance for 7-day mortality prediction in patients with heart failure attended at the emergency department: validation in a Spanish cohort.

PubMed

Gil, Víctor; Miró, Òscar; Schull, Michael J; Llorens, Pere; Herrero-Puente, Pablo; Jacob, Javier; Ríos, José; Lee, Douglas S; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco J

2018-06-01

The Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) scale, derived in 86 Canadian emergency departments (EDs), stratifies patients with acute-decompensated heart failure (ADHF) according to their 7-day mortality risk. We evaluated its external validity in a Spanish cohort. We applied the EHMRG scale to ADHF patients consecutively included in the Epidemiology of Acute Heart Failure in Emergency departments (EAHFE) registry (29 Spanish EDs) and measured its performance. Patients were distributed into quintiles according to the original and their self-defined score cutoffs. The 7-day mortality rates were compared internally among different categories and with categories of Canadian cohorts. The EAHFE group [n: 1553 patients; 80 (10) years; 55.6% women] had a 5.5% 7-day mortality rate and the EHMRG scale c-statistic was 0.741 (95% confidence interval: 0.688-0.793) compared with 0.807 (0.761-0.842) and 0.804 (0.763-0.840) obtained in the Canadian derivation and validation cohorts. The mortality rate of the EAHFE group mortality increased progressively as the quintile categories increased using intervals defined by either the Canadian or the Spanish EHMRG score cutoffs, although with more regular increments with the EAHFE-defined intervals; using the latter, patients at quintiles 2, 3, 4, 5a and 5b had (compared with quintile 1) odds ratios of 1.77, 3.36, 4.44, 9.39 and 16.19, respectively. The EHMRG scale stratified risk in an ADHF cohort that included both palliative and nonpalliative patients in Spanish EDs, showing an extrapolation to a higher mortality risk cohort than the original derivation sample. Stratification improved when the score was recalibrated in the Spanish cohort.

Validity of St Gallen risk categories in prognostication of breast cancer patients in Southern Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Peiris, Harshini; Mudduwa, Lakmini; Thalagala, Neil; Jayatilake, Kamani

2018-01-31

Although, there are many developments in the field of management, breast cancer is still the commonest cause of cancer related deaths in women in Sri Lanka. This emphasizes the need for validation of treatment protocols that are used in Sri Lanka for managing breast cancers. There are no published papers on treatment and survival of breast cancer patients in Sri Lanka. Hence this study was designed to determine the validity of St Gallen risk categories based on the survival outcomes of breast cancer patients in Southern Sri Lanka. This retro-prospective study included all female breast cancer patients who had sought the immunohistochemistry services of our unit from May 2006 to December 2012. Patients who had neo-adjuvant chemotherapy were excluded. Patients were stratified according to the St Gallen risk categories; low-risk (LR), intermediate-risk (IR) and high-risk (HR), which is used in deciding on the adjuvant treatment. IR category was subdivided based on presence/absence of 1-3 positive-nodes (absent-IR1, present-IR2) and HR on the number of positive-nodes(1-3 lymph nodes;HR1,> 3 lymph nodes;HR2). Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression models were used in the survival analysis. This study included 713breast cancer patients (LR-2%, IR1-45%, IR2-10%, HR1-13%, HR2-30%). Five year breast cancer specific survival (BCSS)wasLR-100%, IR-91%, HR-66% and the recurrence free survival (RFS) was LR-85%, IR-84%, HR-65%. BCSS and RFS curves were significantly different between the three risk categories (p < 0.001). No survival difference was evident between the IR1 and IR2 (BCSS-p = 0.232, RFS-p = 0.118). HR1 and HR2 had a distinctly different BCSS (p = 0.033) with no difference in RFS (p = 0.190). This study validates the St Gallen risk categorization of female breast cancer patients in our setting. However, the HR includes two subsets of patients with a distinct difference in BCSS.

The large-scale placebo-controlled beta-blocker studies in systolic heart failure revisited: results from CIBIS-II, COPERNICUS and SENIORS-SHF compared with stratified subsets from MERIT-HF.

PubMed

Wikstrand, J; Wedel, H; Castagno, D; McMurray, J J V

2014-02-01

The four pivotal beta-blocker trials in heart failure (HF) had different inclusion criteria, making comparison difficult without patient stratifying. The aim of this study was to compare, in similar patients, the effects of bisoprolol, metoprolol controlled release/extended release (CR/XL), carvedilol and nebivolol on (i) total mortality, (ii) all-cause mortality or hospitalization due to cardiovascular causes (time to first event), (iii) all-cause mortality or hospitalization because of HF and (iv) tolerability, defined as discontinuation of randomized treatment. We compared stratified (s ) subsets in MERIT-HF with patients in CIBIS-II [New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III/IV and ejection fraction (EF) ≤ 35%] and COPERNICUS (NYHA III/IV and EF <25%) and in patients with systolic HF in SENIORS-SHF (age ≥ 70 years and EF ≤ 35%). The annual mortality rates in the placebo and beta-blocker arms were: (i) CIBIS-II (n = 2647), 13.2% vs. 8.8% (relative risk reduction 34%, 95% CI: 19-46, P < 0.0001) and MERIT-HFs (n = 2002), 14.8% vs. 8.6% (relative risk reduction 42%, 95% CI: 24-56, P < 0.0001); (ii) COPERNICUS (n = 2289), 19.7% vs. 12.8% (relative risk reduction 35%, 95% CI: 19-48, P = 0.0014) and MERIT-HFs (n = 795), 19.1% vs. 11.7% (relative risk reduction 39%; 95% CI: 11-58, P = 0.0086); (iii) SENIORS-SHF (n = 1359), 11.3% vs. 9.7% (relative risk reduction 16%, NS) and MERIT-HFs (n = 985), 14.8% vs. 10.1% (relative risk reduction 32%, 95% CI: 2-53, P = 0.038). The effects on the other outcomes assessed were similar. Analyses indicated fewer discontinuations from randomized treatment on beta-blockers compared with placebo in COPERNICUS and the MERIT-HFs subsets. The efficacy and tolerability of bisoprolol, carvedilol and metoprolol CR/XL are similar in patients with systolic HF, irrespective of NYHA class or ejection fraction. Nebivolol is less effective and not better tolerated. © 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal

Identifying mortality risks in patients with opioid use disorder using brief screening assessment: Secondary mental health clinical records analysis.

PubMed

Bogdanowicz, Karolina Magda; Stewart, Robert; Chang, Chin-Kuo; Downs, Johnny; Khondoker, Mizanur; Shetty, Hitesh; Strang, John; Hayes, Richard Derek

2016-07-01

Risk assessments are widely used, but their ability to predict outcomes in opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment remains unclear. Therefore, the aim was to investigate if addiction-specific brief risk screening is effective in identifying high mortality risk groups and if subsequent clinical actions following risk assessment impacts on mortality levels. Opioid use disorder (OUD) patients were identified in the South London and Maudsley Case Register. Deaths were identified through database linkage to the national mortality dataset. Cox and competing-risk regression were used to model associations between brief risk assessment domains and all-cause and overdose mortality in 4488 OUD patients, with up-to 6-year follow-up time where 227 deaths were registered. Data were stratified by admission to general mental health services. All-cause mortality was significantly associated with unsafe injecting (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.10-2.11) and clinically appraised likelihood of accidental overdose (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.00-2.19). Overdose-mortality was significantly associated with unsafe injecting (SHR 2.52, 95% CI 1.11-5.70) and clinically appraised suicidality (SHR 2.89, 95% CI 1.38-6.03). Suicidality was associated with a twofold increase in mortality risk among OUD patients who were not admitted to mental health services within 2 months of their risk assessment (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.67-3.24). Diagnosis-specific brief risk screening can identify OUD patient subgroups at increased risk of all-cause and overdose mortality. OUD patients, where suicidality is evident, who are not admitted into services are particularly vulnerable. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for osteoporosis in liver cirrhosis patients measured by transient elastography.

PubMed

Zheng, Jian-Ping; Miao, Hai-Xiong; Zheng, Shao-Wei; Liu, Wei-le; Chen, Chu-Qun; Zhong, Hao-Bo; Li, Sheng-Fa; Fang, Yong-Ping; Sun, Chun-Han

2018-05-01

Osteoporosis or osteopenia is a common complication in patients with cirrhosis, but little is known about the risk factors for the occurrence of osteoporosis.Patients with liver cirrhosis due to chronic virus infection and alcoholic abuse were enrolled. Bone mineral density (BMD) was determined using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Osteoporosis was diagnosed according to WHO criteria. The severity of liver stiffness was measured by Fibroscan. Demographic data, such as age, gender, weight, height, and body mass index (BMI), were collected. Logistic regression analysis was used to recognize the risk factors of osteoporosis in patients with cirrhosis.A total of 446 patients were included in this study: 217 had liver cirrhosis (male, 74.2%; mean age, 57.2 ± 10.27) and 229 were matched controls (male, 69%, mean age, 56.69 ± 9.37). Osteoporosis was found in 44 patients (44/217, 20.3%). The spine and hip BMD in cirrhotic patients were significantly lower than that in controls. When the cirrhotic and control subjects were stratified by age, gender, and BMI, the significant difference was also observed in women patients, patients older than 60, and patients with BMI < 18. Multivariate analysis showed that the older age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.78, P = .046], lower BMI (OR = 0.63, P = .049), greater fibroscan score (OR = 1.15, P = .009), and liver cirrhosis induced by alcohol liver disease (OR = 3.42, P < .001) were independently associated with osteoporosis in cirrhotic patients.Osteoporosis occurred in about one-fifth of patients with liver cirrhosis, which was associated with age, BMI, Fibroscan score, and alcohol liver disease related liver cirrhosis.

A pretest prognostic score to assess patients undergoing exercise or pharmacological stress testing.

PubMed

Morise, Anthony; Evans, Matthew; Jalisi, Farrukh; Shetty, Rajendra; Stauffer, Marc

2007-02-01

A previously developed pretest score was validated to stratify patients presenting for exercise testing with suspected coronary disease according to the presence of angiographic coronary disease. Our goal was to determine how well this pretest score risk stratified patients undergoing pharmacological and exercise stress tests concerning prognostic endpoints. Retrospective cohort analysis. University hospital stress laboratory. 7452 unselected ambulatory patients with symptoms of suspected coronary disease undergoing stress testing between 1995 and 2004. All-cause death, cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction. The rate of all-cause death was 5.5% (CI 5.0 to 6.1) with 4.3 (SD 2.4) years of follow-up (Exercise 2.8% (CI 2.3 to 3.2) v Pharmacological group 11.9% (CI 10.5 to 13.3); p<0.001). The rate of cardiac death/myocardial infarction was 2.6% (CI 2.2 to 3.0) (Exercise 1.4% (CI 1.1 to 1.8) v Pharmacological group 5.3% (CI 4.3 to 6.2); p<0.001). In both groups, stratification by pretest score was significant for all-cause death and the combined endpoint. However, stratification was more effective in the pharmacological group using the combined endpoint rather than all-cause death. Pharmacological stress patients in intermediate and high risk groups were at higher risk than their respective exercise test cohorts. Referral for pharmacological stress testing was found to be an independent predictor of time to death (2.7 (CI 2.0 to 3.6); p<0.001). A pretest score previously validated to stratify according to angiographic outcomes, effectively risk stratified pharmacological and exercise stress patients according to the combined endpoint of cardiac death/myocardial infarction.

Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Cohort Studies of Suicide Risk Assessment among Psychiatric Patients: Heterogeneity in Results and Lack of Improvement over Time

PubMed Central

Large, Matthew; Kaneson, Muthusamy; Myles, Nicholas; Myles, Hannah; Gunaratne, Pramudie; Ryan, Christopher

2016-01-01

Objective It is widely assumed that the clinical care of psychiatric patients can be guided by estimates of suicide risk and by using patient characteristics to define a group of high-risk patients. However, the statistical strength and reliability of suicide risk categorization is unknown. Our objective was to investigate the odds of suicide in high-risk compared to lower-risk categories and the suicide rates in high-risk and lower-risk groups. Method We located longitudinal cohort studies where psychiatric patients or people who had made suicide attempts were stratified into high-risk and lower-risk groups for suicide with suicide mortality as the outcome by searching for peer reviewed publications indexed in PubMed or PsychINFO. Electronic searches were supplemented by hand searching of included studies and relevant review articles. Two authors independently extracted data regarding effect size, study population and study design from 53 samples of risk-assessed patients reported in 37 studies. Results The pooled odds of suicide among high-risk patients compared to lower-risk patients calculated by random effects meta-analysis was of 4.84 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 3.79–6.20). Between-study heterogeneity was very high (I2 = 93.3). There was no evidence that more recent studies had greater statistical strength than older studies. Over an average follow up period of 63 months the proportion of suicides among the high-risk patients was 5.5% and was 0.9% among lower-risk patients. The meta-analytically derived sensitivity and specificity of a high-risk categorization were 56% and 79% respectively. There was evidence of publication bias in favour of studies that inflated the pooled odds of suicide in high-risk patients. Conclusions The strength of suicide risk categorizations based on the presence of multiple risk factors does not greatly exceed the association between individual suicide risk factors and suicide. A statistically strong and reliable method to

[Effectiveness of an intervention to improve quality care in reducing cardiovascular risk in hypertense patients].

PubMed

Gómez Marcos, Manuel A; García Ortiz, Luis; González Elena, Luis Javier; Sánchez Rodríguez, Angel

2006-05-31

To evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention on health workers, based on quality improvement through reduction of cardiovascular risk in patients with hypertension. Quasi-experimental study. Primary care. Two urban health centres. A thousand hypertense patients selected by stratified random sampling. One centre (500) was assigned to implement a quality improvement intervention, while at the other centre (500) "usual care" procedures were followed (control group). The quality improvement intervention consisted of a combined program designed for the medical and nursing staff that comprised audit, feedback, training sessions, and implementation of clinical practice guidelines. Coronary risk using the Framingham scale and cardiovascular mortality risk using the SCORE project. Absolute coronary risk decreased from 16.94% (95% CI, 15.92-17.66) to 13.81% (95% CI, 13.09-14.52) (P<.001) in the intervention group; whilst there was no significant change in the control group, which dropped from 17.63% (95% CI, 16.68-18.53) to 16.82% (95% CI, 15.91-17.74). The intervention led to a 2.28% point decrease (95% CI, 1.35-3.21) (P<.001) in coronary risk. Cardiovascular mortality risk decreased from 2.48% (95% CI, 2.35-2.62) to 2.19% (95% CI, 2.07-2.31) (P<.001) in the intervention group, with no significant change in the control group, which changed from 2.45% (95% CI, 2.30-2.59) to 2.52% (95% CI, 2.38-2.66). The intervention led to a 0.36% point decrease (95% CI, 0.05-0.73) (P<.001) in cardiovascular mortality risk. The quality improvement intervention was effective in decreasing coronary risk and cardiovascular mortality risk in patients with hypertension.

A pretest prognostic score to assess patients undergoing exercise or pharmacological stress testing

PubMed Central

Morise, Anthony; Evans, Matthew; Jalisi, Farrukh; Shetty, Rajendra; Stauffer, Marc

2007-01-01

Objective A previously developed pretest score was validated to stratify patients presenting for exercise testing with suspected coronary disease according to the presence of angiographic coronary disease. Our goal was to determine how well this pretest score risk stratified patients undergoing pharmacological and exercise stress tests concerning prognostic endpoints. Design Retrospective cohort analysis. Setting University hospital stress laboratory. Patients 7452 unselected ambulatory patients with symptoms of suspected coronary disease undergoing stress testing between 1995 and 2004. Main outcomes measures All‐cause death, cardiac death and non‐fatal myocardial infarction. Results The rate of all‐cause death was 5.5% (CI 5.0 to 6.1) with 4.3 (SD 2.4) years of follow‐up (Exercise 2.8% (CI 2.3 to 3.2) v Pharmacological group 11.9% (CI 10.5 to 13.3); p<0.001). The rate of cardiac death/myocardial infarction was 2.6% (CI 2.2 to 3.0) (Exercise 1.4% (CI 1.1 to 1.8) v Pharmacological group 5.3% (CI 4.3 to 6.2); p<0.001). In both groups, stratification by pretest score was significant for all‐cause death and the combined endpoint. However, stratification was more effective in the pharmacological group using the combined endpoint rather than all‐cause death. Pharmacological stress patients in intermediate and high risk groups were at higher risk than their respective exercise test cohorts. Referral for pharmacological stress testing was found to be an independent predictor of time to death (2.7 (CI 2.0 to 3.6); p<0.001). Conclusion A pretest score previously validated to stratify according to angiographic outcomes, effectively risk stratified pharmacological and exercise stress patients according to the combined endpoint of cardiac death/myocardial infarction. PMID:17228070

Risk of cardiac events in Long QT syndrome patients when taking antiseizure medications.

PubMed

Auerbach, David S; Biton, Yitschak; Polonsky, Bronislava; McNitt, Scott; Gross, Robert A; Dirksen, Robert T; Moss, Arthur J

2018-01-01

Many antiseizure medications (ASMs) affect ion channel function. We investigated whether ASMs alter the risk of cardiac events in patients with corrected QT (QT c ) prolongation. The study included people from the Rochester-based Long QT syndrome (LQTS) Registry with baseline QT c prolongation and history of ASM therapy (n = 296). Using multivariate Anderson-Gill models, we assessed the risk of recurrent cardiac events associated with ASM therapy. We stratified by LQTS genotype and predominant mechanism of ASM action (Na + channel blocker and gamma-aminobutyric acid modifier.) There was an increased risk of cardiac events when participants with QT c prolongation were taking vs off ASMs (HR 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.36-2.00, P < 0.001). There was an increased risk of cardiac events when LQTS2 (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.03-2.15, P = 0.036) but not LQTS1 participants were taking ASMs (interaction, P = 0.016). Na + channel blocker ASMs were associated with an increased risk of cardiac events in participants with QT c prolongation, specifically LQTS2, but decreased risk in LQTS1. The increased risk when taking all ASMs and Na + channel blocker ASMs was attenuated by concurrent beta-adrenergic blocker therapy (interaction, P < 0.001). Gamma-aminobutyric acid modifier ASMs were associated with an increased risk of events in patients not concurrently treated with beta-adrenergic blockers. Female participants were at an increased risk of cardiac events while taking all ASMs and each class of ASMs. Despite no change in overall QT c duration, pharmacogenomic analyses set the stage for future prospective clinical and mechanistic studies to validate that ASMs with predominantly Na + channel blocking actions are deleterious in LQTS2, but protective in LQTS1. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of surfactant on stratified and stratifying gas-liquid flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiles, Baptiste; Zadrazil, Ivan; Matar, Omar

2013-11-01

We consider the dynamics of a stratified/stratifying gas-liquid flow in horizontal tubes. This flow regime is characterised by the thin liquid films that drain under gravity along the pipe interior, forming a pool at the bottom of the tube, and the formation of large-amplitude waves at the gas-liquid interface. This regime is also accompanied by the detachment of droplets from the interface and their entrainment into the gas phase. We carry out an experimental study involving axial- and radial-view photography of the flow, in the presence and absence of surfactant. We show that the effect of surfactant is to reduce significantly the average diameter of the entrained droplets, through a tip-streaming mechanism. We also highlight the influence of surfactant on the characteristics of the interfacial waves, and the pressure gradient that drives the flow. EPSRC Programme Grant EP/K003976/1.

Risk stratification of chronic heart failure patients by multiple biomarkers: implications of BNP, H-FABP, and PTX3.

PubMed

Ishino, Mitsunori; Takeishi, Yasuchika; Niizeki, Takeshi; Watanabe, Tetsu; Nitobe, Joji; Miyamoto, Takuya; Miyashita, Takehiko; Kitahara, Tatsuro; Suzuki, Satoshi; Sasaki, Toshiki; Bilim, Olga; Kubota, Isao

2008-11-01

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP), and pentraxin 3 (PTX3) each predict adverse cardiac events in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients. For prognostic evaluation from different aspects, the utility of combined measurement of the 3 biomarkers in patients with CHF was examined in the present study. Levels of BNP (associated with left ventricular dysfunction, positive if >200 pg/ml), H-FABP (marker of myocardial damage, positive if >4.1 ng/ml), and PTX3 (marker of inflammation, positive if >4.0 ng/ml) were measured in 164 consecutive CHF patients, and patients were prospectively followed with endpoints of cardiac death or rehospitalization. When patients were categorized on the basis of the number of elevated biomarkers, patients with 1, 2, and 3 elevated biomarkers had a 5.4-fold (not significant), 11.2-old (p<0.05), and 34.6-fold increase (p<0.01), respectively, in the risk of adverse cardiac events compared with those without elevated biomarkers. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with 3 elevated biomarkers had a significantly higher cardiac event rate than patients with a lower number of elevated biomarkers. The combination of these 3 biomarkers could reliably risk-stratify CHF patients for prediction of cardiac events.

Complete surgical resection improves outcome in INRG high-risk patients with localized neuroblastoma older than 18 months.

PubMed

Fischer, Janina; Pohl, Alexandra; Volland, Ruth; Hero, Barbara; Dübbers, Martin; Cernaianu, Grigore; Berthold, Frank; von Schweinitz, Dietrich; Simon, Thorsten

2017-08-04

Although several studies have been conducted on the role of surgery in localized neuroblastoma, the impact of surgical timing and extent of primary tumor resection on outcome in high-risk patients remains controversial. Patients from the German neuroblastoma trial NB97 with localized neuroblastoma INSS stage 1-3 age > 18 months were included for retrospective analysis. Imaging reports were reviewed by two independent physicians for Image Defined Risk Factors (IDRF). Operation notes and corresponding imaging reports were analyzed for surgical radicality. The extent of tumor resection was classified as complete resection (95-100%), gross total resection (90-95%), incomplete resection (50-90%), and biopsy (<50%) and correlated with local control rate and outcome. Patients were stratified according to the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) staging system. Survival curves were estimated according to the method of Kaplan and Meier and compared by the log-rank test. A total of 179 patients were included in this study. 77 patients underwent more than one primary tumor operation. After best surgery, 68.7% of patients achieved complete resection of the primary tumor, 16.8% gross total resection, 14.0% incomplete surgery, and 0.5% biopsy only. The cumulative complication rate was 20.3% and the surgery associated mortality rate was 1.1%. Image defined risk factors (IDRF) predicted the extent of resection. Patients with complete resection had a better local-progression-free survival (LPFS), event-free survival (EFS) and OS (overall survival) than the other groups. Subgroup analyses showed better EFS, LPFS and OS for patients with complete resection in INRG high-risk patients. Multivariable analyses revealed resection (complete vs. other), and MYCN (non-amplified vs. amplified) as independent prognostic factors for EFS, LPFS and OS. In patients with localized neuroblastoma age 18 months or older, especially in INRG high-risk patients harboring MYCN amplification

Jet-front systems nearing strongly stratified region in differentially heated, rotating stratified annulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, Joran; Achatz, Ulrich

2017-04-01

The differentially heated, rotating annulus configuration has been used for a long time as a model system of the earth troposphere. It can easily reproduce thermal wind and baroclinic waves in the laboratory. It has recently been shown numerically that provided the Rossby number, the rotation rate and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency were well chosen, this configuration also reproduces the spontaneous emission of gravity waves by jet front systems [1]. This offers a very practical configuration in which to study an important process of emission of atmospheric gravity waves. It has also been shown experimentally that this configuration can be modified in order to add the possibility for the emitted wave to reach a strongly stratified region [2]. It thus creates a system containing a model troposphere where gravity waves are spontaneously emitted and can propagate to a model stratosphere. For this matter a stratification was created using a salinity gradient in the experimental apparatus. Through double diffusion, this generates a strongly stratified layer in the middle of the flow (the model stratosphere) and two weakly stratified region in the top and bottom layers (the model troposphere). In this poster, we present simulations of this configuration displaying baroclinic waves in the top and bottom layers. We aim at creating jet front systems strong enough that gravity waves can be spontaneously emitted. This will thus offer the possibility of studying the wave characteristic and mechanisms in emission and propagation in details. References [1] S. Borchert, U. Achatz, M.D. Fruman, Spontaneous Gravity wave emission in the differentially heated annulus, J. Fluid Mech. 758, 287-311 (2014). [2] M. Vincze, I. Borcia, U. Harlander, P. Le Gal, Double-diffusive convection convection and baroclinic instability in a differentially heated and initially stratified rotating system: the barostrat instability, Fluid Dyn. Res. 48, 061414 (2016).

Cardiovascular risk stratification in overweight or obese patients in primary prevention. Implications for use of statins.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Lobo, Martín; Huerín, Melina; Molinero, Graciela; Manente, Diego; Pángaro, Mario; Vitagliano, Laura; Zylbersztejn, Horacio

2015-02-01

Cardiovascular risk estimation in patients with overweight/obesity is not standardized. Our objectives were to stratify cardiovascular risk using different scores, to analyze use of statins, to report the prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP), and to determine the optimal cut-off point (OCP) of scores that discriminate between subjects with or without CAP. Non-diabetic patients with overweight or obesity in primary prevention were enrolled. The Framingham score (FS), the European score (ES), and the score proposed by the new American guidelines (NS) were calculated, and statin indication was evaluated. Prevalence of CAP was determined by ultrasound examination. A ROC analysis was performed. A total of 474 patients (67% with overweight and 33% obese) were enrolled into the study. The FS classified the largest number of subjects as low risk. PAC prevalence was higher in obese as compared to overweight subjects (44.8% vs. 36.1%, P=.04). According to the FS, ES, and NS respectively, 26.7%, 39.1%, and 39.1% of overweight subjects and 28.6%, 39.0%, and 39.0% of obese subjects had an absolute indication for statins. All three scores were shown to acceptably discriminate between subjects with and without CAP (area under the curve>0.7). The OCPs evaluated did not agree with the risk category values. Risk stratification and use of statins varied in the overweight/obese population depending on the function used. Understanding of the relationship between scores and presence of CAP may optimize risk estimate. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

PSA-Stratified Performance of 18F- and 68Ga-PSMA PET in Patients with Biochemical Recurrence of Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Dietlein, Felix; Kobe, Carsten; Neubauer, Stephan; Schmidt, Matthias; Stockter, Simone; Fischer, Thomas; Schomäcker, Klaus; Heidenreich, Axel; Zlatopolskiy, Boris D; Neumaier, Bernd; Drzezga, Alexander; Dietlein, Markus

2017-06-01

Several studies outlined the sensitivity of 68 Ga-labeled PET tracers against the prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) for localization of relapsed prostate cancer in patients with renewed increase in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA), commonly referred to as biochemical recurrence. Labeling of PSMA tracers with 18 F offers numerous advantages, including improved image resolution, longer half-life, and increased production yields. The aim of this study was to assess the PSA-stratified performance of the 18 F-labeled PSMA tracer 18 F-DCFPyL and the 68 Ga-labeled reference 68 Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC. Methods: We examined 191 consecutive patients with biochemical recurrence according to standard acquisition protocols using 18 F-DCFPyL ( n = 62, 269.8 MBq, PET scan at 120 min after injection) or 68 Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC ( n = 129, 158.9 MBq, 60 min after injection). We determined PSA-stratified sensitivity rates for both tracers and corrected our calculations for Gleason scores using iterative matched-pair analyses. As an orthogonal validation, we directly compared tracer distribution patterns in a separate cohort of 25 patients, sequentially examined with both tracers. Results: After prostatectomy ( n = 106), the sensitivity of both tracers was significantly associated with absolute PSA levels ( P = 4.3 × 10 -3 ). Sensitivity increased abruptly, when PSA values exceeded 0.5 μg/L ( P = 2.4 × 10 -5 ). For a PSA less than 3.5 μg/L, most relapses were diagnosed at a still limited stage ( P = 3.4 × 10 -6 ). For a PSA of 0.5-3.5 μg/L, PSA-stratified sensitivity was 88% (15/17) for 18 F-DCFPyL and 66% (23/35) for 68 Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC. This significant difference was preserved in the Gleason-matched-pair analysis. Outside of this range, sensitivity was comparably low (PSA < 0.5 μg/L) or high (PSA > 3.5 μg/L). After radiotherapy ( n = 85), tracer sensitivity was largely PSA-independent. In the 25 patients examined with both tracers, distribution patterns of 18 F-DCFPyL and 68

A MELD-based model to determine risk of mortality among patients with acute variceal bleeding.

PubMed

Reverter, Enric; Tandon, Puneeta; Augustin, Salvador; Turon, Fanny; Casu, Stefania; Bastiampillai, Ravin; Keough, Adam; Llop, Elba; González, Antonio; Seijo, Susana; Berzigotti, Annalisa; Ma, Mang; Genescà, Joan; Bosch, Jaume; García-Pagán, Joan Carles; Abraldes, Juan G

2014-02-01

Patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) have high mortality rates (15%-20%). Previously described models are seldom used to determine prognoses of these patients, partially because they have not been validated externally and because they include subjective variables, such as bleeding during endoscopy and Child-Pugh score, which are evaluated inconsistently. We aimed to improve determination of risk for patients with AVB. We analyzed data collected from 178 patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh scores of A, B, and C: 15%, 57%, and 28%, respectively) and esophageal AVB who received standard therapy from 2007 through 2010. We tested the performance (discrimination and calibration) of previously described models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and developed a new MELD calibration to predict the mortality of patients within 6 weeks of presentation with AVB. MELD-based predictions were validated in cohorts of patients from Canada (n = 240) and Spain (n = 221). Among study subjects, the 6-week mortality rate was 16%. MELD was the best model in terms of discrimination; it was recalibrated to predict the 6-week mortality rate with logistic regression (logit, -5.312 + 0.207 • MELD; bootstrapped R(2), 0.3295). MELD values of 19 or greater predicted 20% or greater mortality, whereas MELD scores less than 11 predicted less than 5% mortality. The model performed well for patients from Canada at all risk levels. In the Spanish validation set, in which all patients were treated with banding ligation, MELD predictions were accurate up to the 20% risk threshold. We developed a MELD-based model that accurately predicts mortality among patients with AVB, based on objective variables available at admission. This model could be useful to evaluate the efficacy of new therapies and stratify patients in randomized trials. Copyright © 2014 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of mortality associated to chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a 13-year follow-up.

PubMed

Gimeno-Orna, José Antonio; Blasco-Lamarca, Yolanda; Campos-Gutierrez, Belén; Molinero-Herguedas, Edmundo; Lou-Arnal, Luis Miguel; García-García, Blanca

2015-01-01

Our aim was to assess the usefulness of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and urinary albumin excretion (UAE) to predict the risk of mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. This is a prospective cohort study in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Clinical end-point was mortality rate. GFR was measured in ml/min/1.73 m2 and stratified in 3 categories (≥60; 45-59; <45); UAE was measured in mg/24hours and was also stratified in 3 categories (<30; 30-300; >300). Mortality rates were reported per 1000 patient-years. Cox regression models were used to predict mortality risk associated with combined GFR and UAE. The predictive power was estimated with C-Harrell statistic. A total of 453 patients (39.3% males), aged 64.9 (SD 9.3) years were included; mean diabetes duration was 10.4 (SD 7.5) years. Median follow-up was 13 years. Total mortality rate was 39.5/1000. The progressive increase in mortality in the successive categories of GFR and UAE was statistically significant (P<.001). In a multivariable analysis, UAE (HR30-300=1.02 and HR>300=2.83; X2=11.6; P =.003) and GFR (HR45-59=1.34 and HR<45=1.84; X2=6.4; P =.041) were independent predictors for mortality, with no significant interaction. Simultaneous inclusion of GFR and UAE improved the predictive power of models (C-Harrell 0.741 vs. 0.726; P =.045). GFR and UAE are independent predictors for mortality in type 2 diabetic patients and do not show a statistically significant interaction. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Developing and evaluating an automated appendicitis risk stratification algorithm for pediatric patients in the emergency department.

PubMed

Deleger, Louise; Brodzinski, Holly; Zhai, Haijun; Li, Qi; Lingren, Todd; Kirkendall, Eric S; Alessandrini, Evaline; Solti, Imre

2013-12-01

To evaluate a proposed natural language processing (NLP) and machine-learning based automated method to risk stratify abdominal pain patients by analyzing the content of the electronic health record (EHR). We analyzed the EHRs of a random sample of 2100 pediatric emergency department (ED) patients with abdominal pain, including all with a final diagnosis of appendicitis. We developed an automated system to extract relevant elements from ED physician notes and lab values and to automatically assign a risk category for acute appendicitis (high, equivocal, or low), based on the Pediatric Appendicitis Score. We evaluated the performance of the system against a manually created gold standard (chart reviews by ED physicians) for recall, specificity, and precision. The system achieved an average F-measure of 0.867 (0.869 recall and 0.863 precision) for risk classification, which was comparable to physician experts. Recall/precision were 0.897/0.952 in the low-risk category, 0.855/0.886 in the high-risk category, and 0.854/0.766 in the equivocal-risk category. The information that the system required as input to achieve high F-measure was available within the first 4 h of the ED visit. Automated appendicitis risk categorization based on EHR content, including information from clinical notes, shows comparable performance to physician chart reviewers as measured by their inter-annotator agreement and represents a promising new approach for computerized decision support to promote application of evidence-based medicine at the point of care.

Use of Risk Assessment Tool for Inpatient Traumatic Intracranial Hemorrhage after Falls in Acute Care Hospital Setting

PubMed Central

Toyabe, Shin-ichi

2012-01-01

Severe injuries such as intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) are the most serious problem after falls in hospital, but they have not been considered in risk assessment scores for falls. We tried to determine the risk factors for ICH after falls in 20,320 inpatients (696,364 patient-days) aged from 40 to 90 years who were admitted to a tertiary-care university hospital. Possible risk factors including STRATIFY risk score for falls and FRAX™ risk score for fractures were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses. Fallers accounted for 3.2% of the patients, and 5.0% of the fallers suffered major injuries, including peripheral bone fracture (59.6%) and ICH (23.4%). In addition to STRATIFY, FRAX™ was significantly associated not only with bone fractures but also ICH. Concomitant use of risk score for falls and risk score for fractures might be useful for the prediction of major injuries such as ICH after falls. PMID:22980233

Initial clinical validation of Health Heritage, a patient-facing tool for personal and family history collection and cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Baumgart, Leigh A; Postula, Kristen J Vogel; Knaus, William A

2016-04-01

Personal and family health histories remain important independent risk factors for cancer; however they are currently not being well collected or used effectively. Health Heritage was designed to address this need. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of Health Heritage to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to accurately stratify cancer risk. A retrospective chart review was conducted on 100 random patients seen at an adult genetics clinic presenting with concern for an inherited predisposition to cancer. Relevant personal and family history obtained from the patients' medical records was entered into Health Heritage. Recommendations by Health Heritage were compared to national guidelines of eligibility for genetic evaluation. Agreement between Health Heritage referral for genetic evaluation and guideline eligibility for genetic evaluation was 97% (sensitivity 98% and specificity 88%). Risk stratification for cancer was also compared between Health Heritage and those documented by a geneticist. For patients at increased risk for breast, ovarian, or colorectal cancer as determined by the geneticist, risk stratification by Health Heritage agreed 90, 93, and 75%, respectively. Discordances in risk stratification were attributed to both complex situations better handled by the geneticist and Health Heritage's adherence to incorporating all information into its algorithms. Health Heritage is a clinically valid tool to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to encourage them to confirm the assessment and management recommendations with cancer genetic experts. Health Heritage also provides an estimate of cancer risk that is complementary to a genetics team.

Role of risk stratification by SPECT, PET, and hybrid imaging in guiding management of stable patients with ischaemic heart disease: expert panel of the EANM cardiovascular committee and EACVI.

PubMed

Acampa, Wanda; Gaemperli, Oliver; Gimelli, Alessia; Knaapen, Paul; Schindler, Thomas H; Verberne, Hein J; Zellweger, Michael J

2015-12-01

Risk stratification has become increasingly important in the management of patients with suspected or known ischaemic heart disease (IHD). Recent guidelines recommend that these patients have their care driven by risk assessment. The purpose of this position statement is to summarize current evidence on the value of cardiac single-photon emission computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and hybrid imaging in risk stratifying asymptomatic or symptomatic patients with suspected IHD, patients with stable disease, patients after coronary revascularization, heart failure patients, and specific patient population. In addition, this position statement evaluates the impact of imaging results on clinical decision-making and thereby its role in patient management. The document represents the opinion of the European Association of Nuclear Medicine (EANM) Cardiovascular Committee and of the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) and intends to stimulate future research in this field. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effects of unstratified and centre-stratified randomization in multi-centre clinical trials.

PubMed

Anisimov, Vladimir V

2011-01-01

This paper deals with the analysis of randomization effects in multi-centre clinical trials. The two randomization schemes most often used in clinical trials are considered: unstratified and centre-stratified block-permuted randomization. The prediction of the number of patients randomized to different treatment arms in different regions during the recruitment period accounting for the stochastic nature of the recruitment and effects of multiple centres is investigated. A new analytic approach using a Poisson-gamma patient recruitment model (patients arrive at different centres according to Poisson processes with rates sampled from a gamma distributed population) and its further extensions is proposed. Closed-form expressions for corresponding distributions of the predicted number of the patients randomized in different regions are derived. In the case of two treatments, the properties of the total imbalance in the number of patients on treatment arms caused by using centre-stratified randomization are investigated and for a large number of centres a normal approximation of imbalance is proved. The impact of imbalance on the power of the study is considered. It is shown that the loss of statistical power is practically negligible and can be compensated by a minor increase in sample size. The influence of patient dropout is also investigated. The impact of randomization on predicted drug supply overage is discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk Factors Associated with Very Low Birth Weight in a Large Urban Area, Stratified by Adequacy of Prenatal Care.

PubMed

Xaverius, Pamela; Alman, Cameron; Holtz, Lori; Yarber, Laura

2016-03-01

This study examined risk and protective factors associated with very low birth weight (VLBW) for babies born to women receiving adequate or inadequate prenatal care. Birth records from St. Louis City and County from 2000 to 2009 were used (n = 152,590). Data was categorized across risk factors and stratified by adequacy of prenatal care (PNC). Multivariate logistic regression and population attributable risk (PAR) was used to explore risk factors for VLBW infants. Women receiving inadequate prenatal care had a higher prevalence of delivering a VLBW infant than those receiving adequate PNC (4.11 vs. 1.44 %, p < .0001). The distribution of risk factors differed between adequate and inadequate PNC regarding Black race (36.4 vs. 79.0 %, p < .0001), age under 20 (13.0 vs. 33.6 %, p < .0001), <13 years of education (35.9 vs. 77.9 %, p < .0001), Medicaid status (35.7 vs. 74.9, p < .0001), primiparity (41.6 vs. 31.4 %, p < .0001), smoking (9.7 vs. 24.5 %, p < .0001), and diabetes (4.0 vs. 2.4 %, p < .0001), respectively. Black race, advanced maternal age, primiparity and gestational hypertension were significant predictors of VLBW, regardless of adequate or inadequate PNC. Among women with inadequate PNC, Medicaid was protective against (aOR 0.671, 95 % CI 0.563-0.803; PAR -32.6 %) and smoking a risk factor for (aOR 1.23, 95 % CI 1.01, 1.49; PAR 40.1 %) VLBW. When prematurity was added to the adjusted models, the largest PAR shifts to education (44.3 %) among women with inadequate PNC. Community actions around broader issues of racism and social determinants of health are needed to prevent VLBW in a large urban area.

Activin in acute pancreatitis: Potential risk-stratifying marker and novel therapeutic target.

PubMed

Staudacher, Jonas J; Yazici, Cemal; Carroll, Timothy; Bauer, Jessica; Pang, Jingbo; Krett, Nancy; Xia, Yinglin; Wilson, Annette; Papachristou, Georgios; Dirmeier, Andrea; Kunst, Claudia; Whitcomb, David C; Fantuzzi, Giamila; Jung, Barbara

2017-10-06

Acute Pancreatitis is a substantial health care challenge with increasing incidence. Patients who develop severe disease have considerable mortality. Currently, no reliable predictive marker to identify patients at risk for severe disease exists. Treatment is limited to rehydration and supporting care suggesting an urgent need to develop novel approaches to improve standard care. Activin is a critical modulator of inflammatory responses, but has not been assessed in pancreatitis. Here, we demonstrate that serum activin is elevated and strongly correlates with disease severity in two established murine models of acute pancreatitis induced by either cerulein or IL-12 + IL-18. Furthermore, in mice, inhibition of activin conveys survival benefits in pancreatitis. In addition, serum activin levels were measured from a retrospective clinical cohort of pancreatitis patients and high activin levels in patients at admission are predictive of worse outcomes, indicated by longer overall hospital and intensive care unit stays. Taken together, activin is a novel candidate as a clinical marker to identify those acute pancreatitis patients with severe disease who would benefit from aggressive treatment and activin may be a therapeutic target in severe acute pancreatitis.

Proposal for a bariatric mortality risk classification system for patients undergoing bariatric surgery.

PubMed

Nguyen, Ninh T; Nguyen, Brian; Smith, Brian; Reavis, Kevin M; Elliott, Christian; Hohmann, Samuel

2013-01-01

An obesity surgery mortality risk score derived from a single clinical series can be used to stratify the mortality risk of patients undergoing gastric bypass. However, such a scoring system does not take into account 2 important factors in contemporary bariatric surgery--increased use of the laparoscopic approach and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding. The present study analyzed the preoperative factors that might predict in-hospital mortality after bariatric surgery using data from academic medical centers and proposes a classification system for predicting mortality. Using the "International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision," diagnosis and procedural codes, the data for all patients who underwent bariatric surgery for the treatment of morbid obesity from 2002 to 2009 were obtained from the University HealthSystem Consortium database. The limitations of this database included the lack of the body mass index and the underestimation of some co-morbidities, such as sleep apnea. Multiple regression analyses were performed to determine the factors predictive of greater in-hospital mortality. The factors examined included race, gender, age, co-morbidities, surgical technique (laparoscopic versus open), bariatric operation (gastric bypass versus nongastric bypass), and payer type. A scoring system was devised by assigning 1 point for each major factor (those with an adjusted odds ratio [AOR] of ≥2.0) and .5 point for each minor factor (those with an AOR <2.0). Using contemporary data from 2007 to 2009, the in-hospital mortality was analyzed according to the classification: class I, 0-0.5 point; class II, 1.0-1.5 points; class III, 2.0-3.0 points; and class IV, ≥3.5 points. During the 8-year period, 105,287 patients underwent bariatric surgery. The operations included laparoscopic gastric bypass (45%), open gastric bypass (41%), and laparoscopic gastric banding or gastroplasty (14%). The overall in-hospital mortality rate was .17%. The number of deaths

Analysis of Turbulent Combustion in Simplified Stratified Charge Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriyoshi, Yasuo; Morikawa, Hideaki; Komatsu, Eiji

The stratified charge combustion system has been widely studied due to the significant potentials for low fuel consumption rate and low exhaust gas emissions. The fuel-air mixture formation process in a direct-injection stratified charge engine is influenced by various parameters, such as atomization, evaporation, and in-cylinder gas motion at high temperature and high pressure conditions. It is difficult to observe the in-cylinder phenomena in such conditions and also challenging to analyze the following stratified charge combustion. Therefore, the combustion phenomena in simplified stratified charge conditions aiming to analyze the fundamental stratified charge combustion are examined. That is, an experimental apparatus which can control the mixture distribution and the gas motion at ignition timing was developed, and the effects of turbulence intensity, mixture concentration distribution, and mixture composition on stratified charge combustion were examined. As a result, the effects of fuel, charge stratification, and turbulence on combustion characteristics were clarified.

Kinome expression profiling of human neuroblastoma tumors identifies potential drug targets for ultra high-risk patients.

PubMed

Russo, Roberta; Cimmino, Flora; Pezone, Lucia; Manna, Francesco; Avitabile, Marianna; Langella, Concetta; Koster, Jan; Casale, Fiorina; Raia, Maddalena; Viola, Giampietro; Fischer, Matthias; Iolascon, Achille; Capasso, Mario

2017-10-01

Neuroblastoma (NBL) accounts for >7% of malignancies in patients younger than 15 years. Low- and intermediate-risk patients exhibit excellent or good prognosis after treatment, whereas for high-risk (HR) patients, the estimated 5-year survival rates is still <40%. The ability to stratify HR patients that will not respond to standard treatment strategies is critical for informed treatment decisions. In this study, we have generated a specific kinome gene signature, named Kinome-27, which is able to identify a subset of HR-NBL tumors, named ultra-HR NBL, with highly aggressive clinical behavior that not adequately respond to standard treatments. We have demonstrated that NBL cell lines expressing the same kinome signature of ultra-HR tumors (ultra-HR-like cell lines) may be selectively targeted by the use of two drugs [suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (SAHA) and Radicicol], and that the synergic combination of these drugs is able to block the ultra-HR-like cells in G2/M phase of cell cycle. The use of our signature in clinical practice will allow identifying patients with negative outcome, which would benefit from new and more personalized treatments. Preclinical in vivo studies are needed to consolidate the SAHA and Radicicol treatment in ultra-HR NBL patients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Stroke rehabilitation and risk of mortality: a population-based cohort study stratified by age and gender.

PubMed

Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Ni, Cheng-Hua; Li, Chung-Yi; Tsai, Pei-Shan; Lin, Li-Fong; Shen, Hsiu-Nien

2015-06-01

To determine the survival of patients with stroke for up to 10 years after a first-time stroke and to investigate whether stroke rehabilitation within the first 3 months reduced long-term mortality in these patients. We used the medical claims data for a random sample of 1 million insured Taiwanese registered in the year 2000. A total of 7767 patients admitted for a first-time stroke between 2000 and 2005; 1285 (16.7%) received rehabilitation within the first 3 months after stroke admission. The other 83.3% of patients served as a comparison cohort. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the relative risk of mortality in relation to the rehabilitation intervention. In all, 181 patients with rehabilitation and 1123 controls died, representing respective mortality rates of 25.0 and 32.7 per 1000 person-years. Rehabilitation was significantly associated with a lower risk of mortality (hazard ratio .68, 95% confidence interval .58-.79). Such a beneficial effect tended to be more obvious as the frequency of rehabilitation increased (P for the trend <.0001) and was more evident in female patients. Stroke rehabilitation initiated in the first 3 months after a stroke admission may significantly reduce the risk of mortality for 10 years after the stroke. Copyright © 2015 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A risk score for identifying methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) represents an important pathogen in healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP). The concept of HCAP, though, may not perform well as a screening test for MRSA and can lead to overuse of antibiotics. We developed a risk score to identify patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia unlikely to have MRSA. Methods We identified patients admitted with pneumonia (Apr 2005 – Mar 2009) at 62 hospitals in the US. We only included patients with lab evidence of bacterial infection (e.g., positive respiratory secretions, blood, or pleural cultures or urinary antigen testing). We determined variables independently associated with the presence of MRSA based on logistic regression (two-thirds of cohort) and developed a risk prediction model based on these factors. We validated the model in the remaining population. Results The cohort included 5975 patients and MRSA was identified in 14%. The final risk score consisted of eight variables and a potential total score of 10. Points were assigned as follows: two for recent hospitalization or ICU admission; one each for age < 30 or > 79 years, prior IV antibiotic exposure, dementia, cerebrovascular disease, female with diabetes, or recent exposure to a nursing home/long term acute care facility/skilled nursing facility. This study shows how the prevalence of MRSA rose with increasing score after stratifying the scores into Low (0 to 1 points), Medium (2 to 5 points) and High (6 or more points) risk. When the score was 0 or 1, the prevalence of MRSA was < 10% while the prevalence of MRSA climbed to > 30% when the score was 6 or greater. Conclusions MRSA represents a cause of pneumonia presenting to the hospital. This simple risk score identifies patients at low risk for MRSA and in whom anti-MRSA therapy might be withheld. PMID:23742753

[Scale Mosaic: definition and testing of a tool for assessing the risk of falling and the care planning during hospitalization].

PubMed

Suprani, Riccarda; Taglioni, Mauro

2014-01-01

in year 2008 the Ausl of Ravenna had a small number of patients at risk among the patients fallen, and among the patients evaluated with risk for fall. This could be due to the rating scale used (Conley) that does not recognize the risk factors "drug therapy" and "conditions clinical care". to experiment a rating scale (Mosaic), to evaluate the performance indicators compared to the scales Conley, Fall Risk Assessment Scoring System (FRASS), Stratity; evaluate the effectiveness of actions taken to manage the risk; Operators remain vigilant about the risk falls. using the scale Mosaic for patients admitted in 16 Hospital Units for two-months. Performance indicators: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative. Studies considered for comparison: Hospital (AO) Bologna for Conley, AO Bologna and AO Niguarda Cà Granda Milan for Stratify, AO Bergamo for FRASS. were analyzed 1474 tabs. Males are 848 (57.5%) and females 626 (43.5%), the average age is 70.8 years. Of these 42 patients have fallen (2.8%), including 25 males and 17 females and the average age is 72.2. Are not at risk 426 (29%) patients and at risk 1048 (71%) patients. In other assessments the patients at risk was 31% in AUSL Ravenna, 59% (Conley) and 13% (Stratify) in AO Bologna and 41.5% (FRASS) in AO Bergamo. The scale Mosaic has a sensitivity of 0.98 (Conley, Stratify and FRASS amounted to 0.69, to 0.20, to 0.50), a specificity of 0.30 (Conley, Stratify and FRASS amounted to 0.41, 0.87, 0.59.) The patients fallen are at risk in 41 cases (97%) and of these 24 low-risk. The most frequent risk factors are: "mobility and gait" (1209 items), "drug therapy" (850 items) , "conditions clinical care" (841 items). Planned actions have an average of 2.2 in patients fallen, of 3.5 in low-risk patients and of 4.48 in patients at high risk. Compared with the previous year shows a decrease of 14 falls and an increase in the level of outcome "no one" (from 61% to 73.5%). the greater number of falls

Stratified prevention: opportunities and limitations. Report on the 1st interdisciplinary cardiovascular workshop in Augsburg.

PubMed

Kirchhof, Gregor; Lindner, Josef Franz; Achenbach, Stephan; Berger, Klaus; Blankenberg, Stefan; Fangerau, Heiner; Gimpel, Henner; Gassner, Ulrich M; Kersten, Jens; Magnus, Dorothea; Rebscher, Herbert; Schunkert, Heribert; Rixen, Stephan; Kirchhof, Paulus

2018-03-01

Sufficient exercise and sleep, a balanced diet, moderate alcohol consumption and a good approach to handle stress have been known as lifestyles that protect health and longevity since the Middle Age. This traditional prevention quintet, turned into a sextet by smoking cessation, has been the basis of the "preventive personality" that formed in the twentieth century. Recent analyses of big data sets including genomic and physiological measurements have unleashed novel opportunities to estimate individual health risks with unprecedented accuracy, allowing to target preventive interventions to persons at high risk and at the same time to spare those in whom preventive measures may not be needed or even be harmful. To fully grasp these opportunities for modern preventive medicine, the established healthy life styles require supplementation by stratified prevention. The opportunities of these developments for life and health contrast with justified concerns: A "surveillance society", able to predict individual behaviour based on big data, threatens individual freedom and jeopardises equality. Social insurance law and the new German Disease Prevention Act (Präventionsgesetz) rightly stress the need for research to underpin stratified prevention which is accessible to all, ethical, effective, and evidence based. An ethical and acceptable development of stratified prevention needs to start with autonomous individuals who control and understand all information pertaining to their health. This creates a mandate for lifelong health education, enabled in an individualised form by digital technology. Stratified prevention furthermore requires the evidence-based development of a new taxonomy of cardiovascular diseases that reflects disease mechanisms. Such interdisciplinary research needs broad support from society and a better use of biosamples and data sets within an updated research governance framework.

Preoperative Staging With 11C-Choline PET/CT Is Adequately Accurate in Patients With Very High-Risk Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Schiavina, Riccardo; Bianchi, Lorenzo; Mineo Bianchi, Federico; Borghesi, Marco; Pultrone, Cristian Vincenzo; Dababneh, Hussam; Castellucci, Paolo; Ceci, Francesco; Nanni, Cristina; Gaudiano, Caterina; Fiorentino, Michelangelo; Porreca, Angelo; Chessa, Francesco; Minervini, Andrea; Fanti, Stefano; Brunocilla, Eugenio

2018-05-30

To evaluate the accuracy of 11 C-choline positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) for nodal staging of prostate cancer (PCa) in different populations of high-risk patients. We evaluated 262 individuals with intermediate- or high-risk PCa submitted to radical prostatectomy and extended pelvic lymph node dissection. Within men with high-risk disease, we identified a subgroup of individuals harboring very high-risk (VHR, n = 28) disease: clinical stage ≥ T2c and more than 5 cores with Gleason score 8-10; primary biopsy Gleason score of 5; 3 high-risk features; or prostate-specific antigen ≥ 30 ng/mL. The diagnostic accuracy of PET/CT and contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) was assessed after stratifying patients according to risk group classification on a patient- and anatomic region-based analysis. On patient-based analysis, considering high-risk patients (n = 155), 11 C-choline PET/CT versus CECT had sensitivity and specificity of 50% and 76% versus 21% and 92%, respectively. Considering VHR men as separate subgroups (n = 28), 11 C-choline PET/CT versus CECT had sensitivity and specificity of 71% and 93% versus 25% and 79%, respectively. Accordingly, in the VHR category, the area under the curve of 11 C-choline PET/CT versus CECT was 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-1.0) versus 0.69 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.86), respectively. On anatomic region-based analysis, considering the VHR group, 11 C-choline PET/CT versus CECT had sensitivity and specificity of 70.6% and 95.5% versus 35.3% and 98.5%, respectively. Patients with VHR characteristics could represent the ideal candidate to undergo disease staging with PET/CT before surgery with the highest cost efficacy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stratified exact tests for the weak causal null hypothesis in randomized trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Chiba, Yasutaka

2017-09-01

Fisher's exact test is commonly used to compare two groups when the outcome is binary in randomized trials. In the context of causal inference, this test explores the sharp causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal effect of treatment is the same for all subjects), but not the weak causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal risks are the same in the two groups). Therefore, in general, rejection of the null hypothesis by Fisher's exact test does not mean that the causal risk difference is not zero. Recently, Chiba (Journal of Biometrics and Biostatistics 2015; 6: 244) developed a new exact test for the weak causal null hypothesis when the outcome is binary in randomized trials; the new test is not based on any large sample theory and does not require any assumption. In this paper, we extend the new test; we create a version of the test applicable to a stratified analysis. The stratified exact test that we propose is general in nature and can be used in several approaches toward the estimation of treatment effects after adjusting for stratification factors. The stratified Fisher's exact test of Jung (Biometrical Journal 2014; 56: 129-140) tests the sharp causal null hypothesis. This test applies a crude estimator of the treatment effect and can be regarded as a special case of our proposed exact test. Our proposed stratified exact test can be straightforwardly extended to analysis of noninferiority trials and to construct the associated confidence interval. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Risk Stratification of Acute Kidney Injury Using the Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

PubMed

Takaya, Yoichi; Yoshihara, Fumiki; Yokoyama, Hiroyuki; Kanzaki, Hideaki; Kitakaze, Masafumi; Goto, Yoichi; Anzai, Toshihisa; Yasuda, Satoshi; Ogawa, Hisao; Kawano, Yuhei

2015-01-01

Risk stratification of acute kidney injury (AKI) is important for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical markers, such as the blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) or BUN or creatinine values alone, stratify the risk of AKI for mortality. In all, 371 consecutive ADHF patients were enrolled in the study. AKI was defined as serum creatinine ≥0.3 mg/dl or a 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels within 48 h. During ADHF therapy, AKI occurred in 99 patients; 55 patients died during the 12-month follow-up period. Grouping patients according to AKI and a median BUN/Cr at admission of 22.1 (non-AKI+low BUN/Cr, non-AKI+high BUN/Cr, AKI+low BUN/Cr, and AKI+high BUN/Cr groups) revealed higher mortality in the AKI+high BUN/Cr group (log-rank test, P<0.001). Cox's proportional hazard analysis revealed an association between AKI+high BUN/Cr and mortality, whereas the association with AKI+low BUN/Cr did not reach statistical significance. When patients were grouped according to AKI and median BUN or creatinine values at admission, AKI was associated with mortality, regardless of BUN or creatinine. The combination of AKI and elevated BUN/Cr, but not BUN or creatinine individually, is linked with an increased risk of mortality in ADHF patients, suggesting that the BUN/Cr is useful for risk stratification of AKI.

Altered blood glucose concentration is associated with risk of death among patients with community-acquired Gram-negative rod bacteremia.

PubMed

Peralta, Galo; Sánchez, M Blanca; Garrido, J Carlos; Ceballos, Begoña; Mateos, Fátima; De Benito, Inés; Roiz, M Pía

2010-06-22

Altered blood glucose concentration is commonly observed in patients with sepsis, even among those without hypoglycemic treatments or history of diabetes mellitus. These alterations in blood glucose are potentially detrimental, although the precise relationship with outcome in patients with bacteremia has not been yet determined. A retrospective cohort study design for analyzing patients with Gram negative rod bacteremia was employed, with the main outcome measure being in-hospital mortality. Patients were stratified in quintiles accordingly deviation of the blood glucose concentration from a central value with lowest mortality. Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used for determining the relationship of same day of bacteremia blood glucose and death. Of 869 patients identified 63 (7.4%) died. Same day of bacteremia blood glucose concentration had a U-shaped relationship with in-hospital mortality. The lowest mortality (2%) was detected in the range of blood glucose concentration from 150 to 160 mg/dL. Greater deviation of blood glucose concentration from the central value of this range (155 mg/dL, reference value) was directly associated with higher risk of death (p = 0.002, chi for trend). The low-risk group (quintile 1) had a mortality of 3.3%, intermediate-risk group (quintiles 2, 3 and 4) a mortality of 7.1%, and the high-risk group (quintile 5) a mortality of 12.05%. In a multivariable Cox regression model, the hazard ratio for death among patients in the intermediate-risk group as compared with that in the low risk group was 2.88 (95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 8.18; P = 0.048), and for the high risk group it was 4.26 (95% confidence interval, 1.41 to 12.94; P = 0.01). Same day of bacteremia blood glucose concentration is related with outcome of patients with Gram-negative rod bacteremia. Lowest mortality is detected in patients with blood glucose concentration in an interval of 150-160 mg/dL. Deviations from these values are associated with an

Altered blood glucose concentration is associated with risk of death among patients with community-acquired Gram-negative rod bacteremia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Altered blood glucose concentration is commonly observed in patients with sepsis, even among those without hypoglycemic treatments or history of diabetes mellitus. These alterations in blood glucose are potentially detrimental, although the precise relationship with outcome in patients with bacteremia has not been yet determined. Methods A retrospective cohort study design for analyzing patients with Gram negative rod bacteremia was employed, with the main outcome measure being in-hospital mortality. Patients were stratified in quintiles accordingly deviation of the blood glucose concentration from a central value with lowest mortality. Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used for determining the relationship of same day of bacteremia blood glucose and death. Results Of 869 patients identified 63 (7.4%) died. Same day of bacteremia blood glucose concentration had a U-shaped relationship with in-hospital mortality. The lowest mortality (2%) was detected in the range of blood glucose concentration from 150 to 160 mg/dL. Greater deviation of blood glucose concentration from the central value of this range (155 mg/dL, reference value) was directly associated with higher risk of death (p = 0.002, chi for trend). The low-risk group (quintile 1) had a mortality of 3.3%, intermediate-risk group (quintiles 2, 3 and 4) a mortality of 7.1%, and the high-risk group (quintile 5) a mortality of 12.05%. In a multivariable Cox regression model, the hazard ratio for death among patients in the intermediate-risk group as compared with that in the low risk group was 2.88 (95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 8.18; P = 0.048), and for the high risk group it was 4.26 (95% confidence interval, 1.41 to 12.94; P = 0.01). Conclusions Same day of bacteremia blood glucose concentration is related with outcome of patients with Gram-negative rod bacteremia. Lowest mortality is detected in patients with blood glucose concentration in an interval of 150-160 mg/dL. Deviations

Contemporary Primary Prevention Aspirin Use by Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Impact of US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendations, 2007-2015: A Serial, Cross-sectional Study.

PubMed

Van't Hof, Jeremy R; Duval, Sue; Walts, Adrienne; Kopecky, Stephen L; Luepker, Russell V; Hirsch, Alan T

2017-10-03

No previous study has evaluated the impact of past US Preventive Services Task Force statements on primary prevention (PP) aspirin use in a primary care setting. The aim of this study was to evaluate temporal changes in PP aspirin use in a primary care population, stratifying patients by their 10-year global cardiovascular disease risk, in response to the 2009 statement. This study estimated biannual aspirin use prevalence using electronic health record data from primary care clinics within the Fairview Health System (Minnesota) from 2007 to 2015. A total of 94 270 patient encounters had complete data to estimate a 10-year cardiovascular disease risk score using the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association global risk estimator. Patients were stratified into low- (<10%), intermediate- (10-20%), and high- (≥20%) risk groups. Over the 9-year period, PP aspirin use averaged 43%. When stratified by low, intermediate and high risk, average PP aspirin use was 41%, 63%, and 73%, respectively. Average PP aspirin use decreased after the publication of the 2009 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation statement: from 45% to 40% in the low-risk group; from 66% to 62% in the intermediate-risk group; and from 76% to 73% in the high-risk group, before and after the guideline. Publication of the 2009 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation was not associated with an increase in aspirin use. High risk PP patients utilized aspirin at high rates. Patients at intermediate risk were less intensively treated, and patients at low risk used aspirin at relatively high rates. These data may inform future aspirin guideline dissemination. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Gravity-induced stresses in stratified rock masses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amadei, B.; Swolfs, H.S.; Savage, W.Z.

1988-01-01

This paper presents closed-form solutions for the stress field induced by gravity in anisotropic and stratified rock masses. These rocks are assumed to be laterally restrained. The rock mass consists of finite mechanical units, each unit being modeled as a homogeneous, transversely isotropic or isotropic linearly elastic material. The following results are found. The nature of the gravity induced stress field in a stratified rock mass depends on the elastic properties of each rock unit and how these properties vary with depth. It is thermodynamically admissible for the induced horizontal stress component in a given stratified rock mass to exceed the vertical stress component in certain units and to be smaller in other units; this is not possible for the classical unstratified isotropic solution. Examples are presented to explore the nature of the gravity induced stress field in stratified rock masses. It is found that a decrease in rock mass anisotropy and a stiffening of rock masses with depth can generate stress distributions comparable to empirical hyperbolic distributions previously proposed in the literature. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag.

The risk of community-acquired pneumonia among 9803 patients with coeliac disease compared to the general population: a cohort study.

PubMed

Zingone, F; Abdul Sultan, A; Crooks, C J; Tata, L J; Ciacci, C; West, J

2016-07-01

Patients with coeliac disease are considered as individuals for whom pneumococcal vaccination is advocated. To quantify the risk of community-acquired pneumonia among patients with coeliac disease, assessing whether vaccination against streptococcal pneumonia modified this risk. We identified all patients with coeliac disease within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with English Hospital Episodes Statistics between April 1997 and March 2011 and up to 10 controls per patient with coeliac disease frequency matched in 10-year age bands. Absolute rates of community-acquired pneumonia were calculated for patients with coeliac disease compared to controls stratified by vaccination status and time of diagnosis using Cox regression in terms of adjusted hazard ratios (HR). Among 9803 patients with coeliac disease and 101 755 controls, respectively, there were 179 and 1864 first community-acquired pneumonia events. Overall absolute rate of pneumonia was similar in patients with coeliac disease and controls: 3.42 and 3.12 per 1000 person-years respectively (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.91-1.24). However, we found a 28% increased risk of pneumonia in coeliac disease unvaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated controls (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.02-1.60). This increased risk was limited to those younger than 65, was highest around the time of diagnosis and was maintained for more than 5 years after diagnosis. Only 26.6% underwent vaccination after their coeliac disease diagnosis. Unvaccinated patients with coeliac disease under the age of 65 have an excess risk of community-acquired pneumonia that was not found in vaccinated patients with coeliac disease. As only a minority of patients with coeliac disease are being vaccinated there is a missed opportunity to intervene to protect these patients from pneumonia. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The association between systemic glucocorticoid therapy and the risk of infection in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: systematic review and meta-analyses

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The objective of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of glucocorticoid (GC) therapy on the risk of infection in patients with RA. Methods A systematic review was conducted by using MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials database to January 2010 to identify studies among populations of patients with RA that reported a comparison of infection incidence between patients treated with GC therapy and patients not exposed to GC therapy. Results In total, 21 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and 42 observational studies were included. In the RCTs, GC therapy was not associated with a risk of infection (relative risk (RR), 0.97 (95% CI, 0.69, 1.36)). Small numbers of events in the RCTs meant that a clinically important increased or decreased risk could not be ruled out. The observational studies generated a RR of 1.67 (1.49, 1.87), although significant heterogeneity was present. The increased risk (and heterogeneity) persisted when analyses were stratified by varying definitions of exposure, outcome, and adjustment for confounders. A positive dose-response effect was seen. Conclusions Whereas observational studies suggested an increased risk of infection with GC therapy, RCTs suggested no increased risk. Inconsistent reporting of safety outcomes in the RCTs, as well as marked heterogeneity, probable residual confounding, and publication bias in the observational studies, limits the opportunity for a definitive conclusion. Clinicians should remain vigilant for infection in patients with RA treated with GC therapy. PMID:21884589

Blood eosinophil count and pneumonia risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a patient-level meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pavord, Ian D; Lettis, Sally; Anzueto, Antonio; Barnes, Neil

2016-09-01

Inhaled corticosteroids are important in the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but can slightly increase the risk of pneumonia in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD. Patients with circulating eosinophil counts of 2% or more of blood leucocytes respond better to inhaled corticosteroids than do those with counts of less than 2% and it was therefore postulated that blood eosinophil count might also have an effect on the risk of pneumonia in patients with COPD. In this post-hoc meta-analysis, we investigate whether a 2% threshold can identify patients who differ in their risk of pneumonia, irrespective of inhaled corticosteroid treatment. From the GlaxoSmithKline trial registry, we selected randomised, double-blind, clinical trials of patients with COPD that had: inhaled corticosteroid arms (fluticasone propionate and salmeterol or fluticasone furoate and vilanterol); a control arm (not given inhaled fluticasone); and pre-randomisation measurements of blood eosinophil counts and were of at least 24 weeks in duration. With use of specified terms from the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities we identified pneumonia adverse events in patient-level data. We calculated number of patients with pneumonia events, stratified by baseline blood eosinophil count (<2% vs ≥2% of blood leucocytes) and whether or not patients had received inhaled corticosteroids. We identified ten trials (conducted between 1998 and 2011), with eosinophil count data available for 10 861 patients with COPD. 4043 patients had baseline blood eosinophil counts of less than 2% and 6818 patients had baseline blood eosinophil counts of 2% or more. 149 (3·7%) patients with counts less than 2% had one or more pneumonia adverse events compared with 215 (3·2%) with counts of 2% or more (hazard ratio [HR] 1·31; 95% CI 1·06-1·62). In patients not treated with inhaled corticosteroids, 40 (3·8%) patients with less than 2% blood eosinophil counts had a pneumonia event

Correlation between severity of ultrasonographic nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiometabolic risk among Filipino wellness patients

PubMed Central

Cuenza, Lucky R.; Razon, Tamara Louise J.; Dayrit, Juan Carlo

2017-01-01

Introduction: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a prevalent condition which is known to be related to factors that predispose to the development of coronary artery disease as well as development of metabolic syndrome. The study aimed to determine the association between ultrasound-based grading of hepatic steatosis with metabolic profile and estimated cardiovascular risk using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Methods: This was a cross-sectional study on 100 Filipino patients without established cardiovascular disease who underwent a general wellness health evaluation. Cases with NAFLD diagnosed on the basis of ultrasound grading were analyzed. Comparison of demographics and metabolic parameters between grades of hepatic steatosis was performed using Kruskal Wallis test. FRS was used to assess cardiovascular risk with Spearman rank test for correlation with the degree of NAFLD. Results: Mean age was 47 ± 9.6 years, with 70% males. Mean body mass index (BMI) was 28.7 ± 5.1. Most patients had grade I NAFLD (53%), 34% were grade II, and 13% were grade III. BMI (P =0.034), liver enzymes (alanine aminotransferase [ALT], P = 0.001; aspartate aminotransferase [AST], P = 0.00), triglycerides (P = 0.047), and fasting blood sugar [FBS] (P = 0.049) were associated with fatty liver grade. No association was noted with total cholesterol (P = 0.569), high density lipoprotein (HDL) (P = 0.220), and low density lipoprotein (LDL) (P = 0.792). Using the FRS 43% were stratified as low (<10% risk), 45% as intermediate (10%-20% risk) and 12% as high risk (>20% risk). Severity of fatty liver was directly correlated with the FRS (Spearman rank 0.741, P = 0.009). Conclusion: Ultrasound-based grading of the severity of NAFLD is associated with abnormalities in the metabolic profile of patients. The FRS is correlated with increasing severity of NAFLD based on ultrasound. These findings suggest that the presence of NAFLD may be a marker for the presence of increased cardiovascular

Serum Lactate Predicts Adverse Outcomes in Emergency Department Patients With and Without Infection.

PubMed

Oedorf, Kimie; Day, Danielle E; Lior, Yotam; Novack, Victor; Sanchez, Leon D; Wolfe, Richard E; Kirkegaard, Hans; Shapiro, Nathan I; Henning, Daniel J

2017-02-01

Lactate levels are increasingly used to risk stratify emergency department (ED) patients with and without infection. Whether a serum lactate provides similar prognostic value across diseases is not fully elucidated. This study assesses the prognostic value of serum lactate in ED patients with and without infection to both report and compare relative predictive value across etiologies. We conducted a prospective, observational study of ED patients displaying abnormal vital signs (AVS) (heart rate ≥130 bpm, respiratory rate ≥24 bpm, shock index ≥1, and/or systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg). The primary outcome, deterioration, was a composite of acute renal failure, non-elective intubation, vasopressor administration or in-hospital mortality. Of the 1,152 patients with AVS who were screened, 488 patients met the current study criteria: 34% deteriorated and 12.5% died. The deterioration rate was 88/342 (26%, 95% CI: 21 - 30%) for lactate < 2.5 mmol/L, 47/90 (52%, 42 - 63%) for lactate 2.5 - 4.0 mmol/L, and 33/46 (72%, 59 - 85%) for lactate >4.0mmol/L. Trended stratified lactate levels were associated with deterioration for both infected (p<0.01) and non-infected (p<0.01) patients. In the logistic regression models, lactate > 4mmol/L was an independent predictor of deterioration for patients with infection (OR 4.8, 95% CI: 1.7 - 14.1) and without infection (OR 4.4, 1.7 - 11.5). Lactate levels can risk stratify patients with AVS who have increased risk of adverse outcomes regardless of infection status.

Analysis of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System and Caprini Risk Assessment Model in Predicting Venous Thromboembolic Outcomes in Plastic Surgery Patients.

PubMed

Shaikh, Mohammad-Ali; Jeong, Haneol S; Mastro, Andrew; Davis, Kathryn; Lysikowski, Jerzy; Kenkel, Jeffrey M

2016-04-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) can be a fatal outcome of plastic surgery. Risk assessment models attempt to determine a patient's risk, yet few studies have compared different models in plastic surgery patients. The authors investigated preoperative ASA physical status and 2005 Caprini scores to determine which model was more predictive of VTE. A retrospective chart review examined 1801 patients undergoing contouring and reconstructive procedures from January 2008 to January 2012. Patients were grouped into risk tiers for ASA scores (1-2 = low, 3+ = high) with 2 cutoffs for Caprini scores (1-4 = low, 5+ high; 1-5 = low, 6+ = high), then re-stratified into 3 tiers using Caprini score cutoffs (1-4 = low, 5-8 = high, 9+ = highest; 1-5 = low, 6-8 = high, 9+ = highest). Median scores of VTE patients were compared to those without VTE. Odds ratio and chi-squared analyses were performed. Of the 1598 patients included in the study, 1.50% developed VTE. Median ASA scores differed significantly between comparison groups but Caprini scores did not vary regardless of cutoff. When examining the 2-tiered Caprini scores, using low risk = 1-5 showed a significant relationship between risk tier and DVT development (P = 0.0266). The ASA system yielded the highest odds ratio of VTE development between low and high-risk patients. The Caprini model captured more patients with VTE in its high-risk category. Combining the two models for a more heuristic approach to preoperative care may identify patients at higher risk. 4 Risk. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Ultrasound-Based Risk Stratification for Malignancy in Thyroid Nodules: A Four-Tier Categorization System.

PubMed

Seo, Hyobin; Na, Dong Gyu; Kim, Ji-Hoon; Kim, Kyung Won; Yoon, Ji Won

2015-07-01

The purpose of this study was to stratify the malignancy risk of US features, with an emphasis on nodule echogenicity. A total of 1,058 nodules of 824 consecutive patients (236 malignant and 822 benign) were included in this study. Malignancy risk of each nodule was analyzed according to US features, with an emphasis on nodule echogenecity, and was stratified into 4-tier categories. In multivariate analysis, isoechogenicity, indistinct margin, non-solid internal content, and parallel orientation were predictive of benign nodules (P < 0.002), while hypoechogenicity, marked hypoechogenicity, spiculated/microlobulated margin, solid content, nonparallel orientation (taller than wide), microcalcification, and macrocalcification were predictive of malignancy (P ≤ 0.037). Although the presence of US features associated with malignancy was significantly predictive of malignancy in hypoechoic and markedly hypoechoic nodules (P ≤ 0.004), it was not associated with malignancy in isoechoic or hyperechoic nodules. Thyroid nodules could be stratified into four categories according to the malignancy risk: benign (risk 0%), probably benign (risk ≤ 5%), indeterminate (risk > 5 and < 50%), and suspicion of malignancy (risk > 50%). The US-based four-tier categorization system will be useful for predicting the risk of malignancy and decisions regarding FNA for thyroid nodules. • No US feature was predictive of malignancy in isoechoic nodules. • Isoechoic nodules without calcification can be included in the probably benign category. • We suggest a four-tier categorization stratified primarily by nodule echogenecity. • The four-tier categorization of thyroid nodules will be useful for FNA decisions.

Mortality and cardiovascular diseases risk in patients with Barrett's oesophagus: a population-based nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Erichsen, R; Horvath-Puho, E; Lund, J L; Dellon, E S; Shaheen, N J; Pedersen, L; Davey Smith, G; Sørensen, H T

2017-04-01

Patients with Barrett's oesophagus may be at increased risk of mortality overall, and cardiovascular disease has been suggested as the main underlying cause of death. To examine cause-specific mortality and risk of cardiovascular events among patients with Barrett's oesophagus. Utilising existing Danish data sources (1997-2011), we identified all patients with histologically verified Barrett's oesophagus (n = 13 435) and 123 526 members of the general population matched by age, sex and individual comorbidities. We calculated cause-specific mortality rates and incidence rates of cardiovascular diseases. We then compared rates between patients with Barrett's oesophagus and the general population comparison cohort, using stratified Cox proportional hazard regression. Patients with Barrett's oesophagus had a 71% increased risk of overall mortality. The cause-specific mortality rate per 1000 person-years for patients with Barrett's oesophagus was 8.5 for cardiovascular diseases, 14.7 for non-oesophageal cancers, and 5.4 for oesophageal cancer. Compared to the general population cohort, corresponding hazard ratios were 1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.38), 1.77 (95% CI: 1.65-1.90), and 19.4 (95% CI: 16.1-23.4), respectively. The incidence rates of cardiovascular diseases per 1000 person-years for Barrett's oesophagus patients and for persons from the general population cohort, respectively, varied from 0.4 and 0.2 for subarachnoid bleeding (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% CI: 0.87-1.39) to 8.1 and 5.9 for congestive heart failure (hazard ratio 1.33, 95% CI: 1.21-1.46). Prophylactic measures targeted at cardiovascular diseases and non-oesophageal cancers potentially could be more important than measures against oesophageal cancer, for improving prognosis among patients with Barrett's oesophagus. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Intensive case management for high-risk patients with first-episode psychosis: service model and outcomes.

PubMed

Brewer, Warrick J; Lambert, Timothy J; Witt, Katrina; Dileo, John; Duff, Cameron; Crlenjak, Carol; McGorry, Patrick D; Murphy, Brendan P

2015-01-01

The first episode of psychosis is a crucial period when early intervention can alter the trajectory of the young person's ongoing mental health and general functioning. After an investigation into completed suicides in the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) programme, the intensive case management subprogramme was developed in 2003 to provide assertive outreach to young people having a first episode of psychosis who are at high risk owing to risk to self or others, disengagement, or suboptimal recovery. We report intensive case management model development, characterise the target cohort, and report on outcomes compared with EPPIC treatment as usual. Inclusion criteria, staff support, referral pathways, clinical review processes, models of engagement and care, and risk management protocols are described. We compared 120 consecutive referrals with 50 EPPIC treatment as usual patients (age 15-24 years) in a naturalistic stratified quasi-experimental real-world design. Key performance indicators of service use plus engagement and suicide attempts were compared between EPPIC treatment as usual and intensive case management, and psychosocial and clinical measures were compared between intensive case management referral and discharge. Referrals were predominately unemployed males with low levels of functioning and educational attainment. They were characterised by a family history of mental illness, migration and early separation, with substantial trauma, history of violence, and forensic attention. Intensive case management improved psychopathology and psychosocial outcomes in high-risk patients and reduced risk ratings, admissions, bed days, and crisis contacts. Characterisation of intensive case management patients validated the clinical research focus and identified a first episode of psychosis high-risk subgroup. In a real-world study, implementation of an intensive case management stream within a well-established first episode of psychosis

An electronic patient risk communication board.

PubMed

Ohashi, Kumiko; Caligtan, Christine A; Benoit, Angela N; Breydo, Eugene M; Carroll, Diane L; Keohane, Carol A; Bates, David W; Dykes, John S; Dykes, Patricia C

2012-01-01

Communication failures have been identified as the root cause of the majority of medical malpractice claims and patient safety violations. We believe it is essential to share key patient risk information with healthcare team members at the patient's bedside. In this study, we developed an electronic Patient Risk Communication Board (ePRCB) to assist in bridging the communication gap between all health care team members. The goal of the ePRCB is to effectively communicate the patient's key risk factors, such as a fall risk or risk of aspiration, to the healthcare team and to reduce adverse events caused by communication failures. The ePRCB will transmit patient risk information and tailored interventions with easy-to-understand icons on an LCD screen at the point of care. A set of patient risk reminder icons was developed and validated by focus groups. We used the results of the evaluation to refine the icons for the ePRCB.

Dipolar eddies in a decaying stratified turbulent flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voropayev, S. I.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Morrison, R.

2008-02-01

Laboratory experiments on the evolution of dipolar (momentum) eddies in a stratified fluid in the presence of random background motions are described. A turbulent jet puff was used to generate the momentum eddies, and a decaying field of ambient random vortical motions was generated by a towed grid. Data on vorticity/velocity fields of momentum eddies, those of background motions, and their interactions were collected in the presence and absence of the other, and the main characteristics thereof were parametrized. Similarity arguments predict that dipolar eddies in stratified fluids may preserve their identity in decaying grid-generated stratified turbulence, which was verified experimentally. Possible applications of the results include mushroomlike currents and other naturally/artificially generated large dipolar eddies in strongly stratified layers of the ocean, the longevity of which is expected to be determined by the characteristics of the eddies and random background motions.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in surgical patients: identification of high-risk populations for the development of targeted screening programmes

PubMed Central

Fraser, Stephanie; Brady, Richard R; Graham, Catriona; Paterson-Brown, Simon; Gibb, Alan P

2010-01-01

INTRODUCTION Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)-related hospital-acquired infection (HAI) in surgical patients is associated with high morbidity, mortality and financial cost. The identification and characterisation of populations of patients who are at high risk of developing MRSA infection or colonisation could inform the design of more effective strategies to prevent HAIs and reduce transmission of MRSA. PATIENTS AND METHODS An analysis of historical discharge data for the whole of 2005 (7145 surgical in-patients) was performed, for all patients admitted to general surgery at the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh. Analysis specifically focused on MRSA laboratory data and coding data for patient demographics, medical co-morbidities, and progress of in-patient stay. RESULTS A total of 134 (1.88%) individual patients with colonisation or infection by MRSA were identified from indicated laboratory testing. Univariate analysis identified a significant association of concurrent MRSA-positive status with patients aged over 60 years (P < 0.01), a duration of inpatient stay > 7 days (P < 0.01), presence of a malignant neoplasm (P < 0.01), circulatory disease (P < 0.01), respiratory disease (P < 0.01), central nervous system disease (P < 0.01), renal failure (P < 0.01), and concurrent admission to ITU/HDU (P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis suggested MRSA colonisation or infection was strongest in those with co-morbid malignancy (P < 0.0001) or admission to ITU/HDU (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS This large observational study has identified cancer patients as a UK surgical patient subpopulation which is at significantly higher risk of colonisation by MRSA. These data could inform the development of focused hospital in-patient screening protocols and provide a means to stratify patient risk. PMID:20385046

Comparative effect of antipsychotics on risk of self-harm among patients with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Ma, C-H; Chang, S-S; Tsai, H-J; Gau, S S-F; Chen, I-M; Liao, S-C; Chien, Y-L; Hsieh, M H; Wu, C-S

2018-04-01

To investigate the association of different antipsychotic treatments with hospitalization due to self-harm among patients with schizophrenia. This retrospective cohort study was based on Taiwan's universal health insurance database. Patients aged 15-45 years with a newly diagnosed schizophrenic disorder in 2001-2012 were included. The study outcome was the first hospitalization due to self-harm or undetermined injury after the diagnosis of schizophrenic disorders. The exposure status of antipsychotics was modeled as a time-dependent variable. The analyses were stratified by antipsychotic dosage based on defined daily dose (DDD). Among 70 380 patients with a follow-up of 500 355 person-years, 2272 self-harm hospitalization episodes were identified. Compared with none or former use, current use of several second-generation antipsychotics with a dose of one DDD or above, including amisulpride, aripiprazole, clozapine, risperidone, and sulpiride, was associated with decreased risk of self-harm hospitalization, with clozapine showing the strongest effect (adjusted rate ratio = 0.26, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.47). The protective effect on self-harm may vary across different antipsychotics. Further studies are needed to replicate the findings. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effectiveness of a stratified care model for non-specific low back pain in Danish primary care compared to current practice: study protocol of a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Morso, Lars; Schiøttz-Christensen, Berit; Søndergaard, Jens; Andersen, Nils-Bo de Vos; Pedersen, Flemming; Olsen, Kim Rose; Jensen, Morten Sall; Hill, Jonathan; Christiansen, David Høyrup

2018-06-08

Prior studies indicate that stratified care for low back pain results in better clinical outcome and reduced costs in healthcare compared to current practice. Stratified care may be associated with clinical benefits for patients with low back pain at a lower cost, but evidence is sparse. Hence this study aims to evaluate the clinical effects and cost-effectiveness of stratified care in patients with non-specific low back pain compared to current practice. The study is a two-armed randomised controlled trial in primary care in the Regions of Southern and Central Denmark (2.5 million citizens). Patients with non-specific low back will be recruited by paticpating GPs. Patients are randomised to either (1) stratified care or (2) current practice at participating physiotherapy clinics. In the stratified care arm, the intervention is based on the patient's STarT Back Tool classification and trained accordingly, whereas physiotherapists in the current pratice arm are blinded to the STarT score. Primary outcomes in the trial will be group differences in time off work, improvement in LBP disability measured by the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ) and patient-reported global change. Secondary measures will be pain intensity, patient satisfaction, data on patient healthcare resource utilisation and quality-adjusted life year based on the EQ-5D-5L. Stratified care that effectively targets treatment to relevant sub-groups of patients has potentially great impact on the treatment pathways of low back pain. Thus, if effective, this could result in better patient outcomes and at the same time reduce the costs for treatment of low back pain. ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT02612467 . Registered on 16 November 2015.

A Tissue Systems Pathology Assay for High-Risk Barrett's Esophagus.

PubMed

Critchley-Thorne, Rebecca J; Duits, Lucas C; Prichard, Jeffrey W; Davison, Jon M; Jobe, Blair A; Campbell, Bruce B; Zhang, Yi; Repa, Kathleen A; Reese, Lia M; Li, Jinhong; Diehl, David L; Jhala, Nirag C; Ginsberg, Gregory; DeMarshall, Maureen; Foxwell, Tyler; Zaidi, Ali H; Lansing Taylor, D; Rustgi, Anil K; Bergman, Jacques J G H M; Falk, Gary W

2016-06-01

Better methods are needed to predict risk of progression for Barrett's esophagus. We aimed to determine whether a tissue systems pathology approach could predict progression in patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus, indefinite for dysplasia, or low-grade dysplasia. We performed a nested case-control study to develop and validate a test that predicts progression of Barrett's esophagus to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), based upon quantification of epithelial and stromal variables in baseline biopsies. Data were collected from Barrett's esophagus patients at four institutions. Patients who progressed to HGD or EAC in ≥1 year (n = 79) were matched with patients who did not progress (n = 287). Biopsies were assigned randomly to training or validation sets. Immunofluorescence analyses were performed for 14 biomarkers and quantitative biomarker and morphometric features were analyzed. Prognostic features were selected in the training set and combined into classifiers. The top-performing classifier was assessed in the validation set. A 3-tier, 15-feature classifier was selected in the training set and tested in the validation set. The classifier stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk classes [HR, 9.42; 95% confidence interval, 4.6-19.24 (high-risk vs. low-risk); P < 0.0001]. It also provided independent prognostic information that outperformed predictions based on pathology analysis, segment length, age, sex, or p53 overexpression. We developed a tissue systems pathology test that better predicts risk of progression in Barrett's esophagus than clinicopathologic variables. The test has the potential to improve upon histologic analysis as an objective method to risk stratify Barrett's esophagus patients. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(6); 958-68. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Hyperlipidemia and statins use for the risk of new-onset anxiety/depression in patients with head and neck cancer: A population-based study.

PubMed

Huang, Chung-I; Lin, Li-Ching; Tien, Hung-Cheng; Que, Jenny; Ting, Wei Chen; Chen, Po-Chun; Wu, Hsin-Min; Ho, Chung-Han; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Wang, Ren-Hong; Yang, Ching-Chieh

2017-01-01

Anxiety/depression is common among patients with head and neck cancer (HNC), and can negatively affect treatment compliance and outcome. The aim of this study was to assess the association between hyperlipidemia and the risk of new-onset anxiety/depression after the diagnosis of HNC and the influence of administering statins. A matched longitudinal cohort study of 1632 subjects (408 HNC patients with preexisting hyperlipidemia and 1224 age- and sex-matched HNC patients without hyperlipidemia) was included and analyzed by using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database from January 1996 to December 2012. The incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) for the development of new-onset anxiety/depression were examined between the two groups. Cox proportional hazard regression was applied to estimate the relative risks of anxiety/depressive disorders adjusted for potential confounding factors. To estimate the risks of anxiety/depression in different sub-groups, a stratified analysis was also used. HNC patients with preexisting hyperlipidemia had a higher risk for comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease (P <0.001). The incidence rate of anxiety/depression in the HNC patients with preexisting hyperlipidemia was also significantly higher than that among patients without hyperlipidemia (10.78% vs 7.27%, respectively; P = 0.03). A Cox regression model revealed that preexisting hyperlipidemia was an independent risk factor for anxiety/depression (aHR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.30-2.94). Statins use was protective against anxiety/depression among HNC patients with hyperlipidemia (aHR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.46-1.57), especially for individuals older than 65 years and for females. Preexisting hyperlipidemia was associated with increased risk of new-onset anxiety/depression in the HNC patients. Statins use for HNC patients with hyperlipidemia could decrease the risk of anxiety/depression, especially for those older than 65 years and for

Using coronary artery calcification combined with pretest clinical risk assessment as a means of determining investigation and treatment in patients presenting with chest pain in a rural setting.

PubMed

Sekar, Baskar; Payne, Mark; Hanna, Azad; Azzu, Abdul; Pike, Martin; Rees, Michael

2015-01-01

462 patients presenting with chest pain to a rural district general hospital underwent calcium scoring and pretest clinical risk assessment in order to stratify subsequent investigations and treatment was retrospectively reviewed. The patients were followed up for two years and further investigations and outcomes recorded. Of the 206 patients with zero calcium score, 132 patients were immediately discharged from cardiac follow-up with no further investigation on the basis of their calcium score, low pretest risk of coronary artery disease, and no significant incidental findings. After further tests, 267 patients were discharged with no further cardiac therapy, 88 patients were discharged with additional medical therapy, and 19 patients underwent coronary artery by-pass grafting or percutaneous intervention. 164 patients with incidental findings on the chest CT (computed tomography) accompanying calcium scoring were reviewed, of which 88 patients underwent further tests and follow-up for noncardiac causes of chest pain. The correlations between all major risk factors and calcium scores were weak except for a combination of diabetes and hypertension in the male gender (P = 0.012), The use of calcium scoring and pretest risk appeared to reduce the number of unnecessary cardiac investigations in our patients: however, the calcium scoring test produced a high number of incidental findings on the associated CT scans.

Using Coronary Artery Calcification Combined with Pretest Clinical Risk Assessment as a Means of Determining Investigation and Treatment in Patients Presenting with Chest Pain in a Rural Setting

PubMed Central

Sekar, Baskar; Hanna, Azad; Azzu, Abdul; Rees, Michael

2015-01-01

462 patients presenting with chest pain to a rural district general hospital underwent calcium scoring and pretest clinical risk assessment in order to stratify subsequent investigations and treatment was retrospectively reviewed. The patients were followed up for two years and further investigations and outcomes recorded. Of the 206 patients with zero calcium score, 132 patients were immediately discharged from cardiac follow-up with no further investigation on the basis of their calcium score, low pretest risk of coronary artery disease, and no significant incidental findings. After further tests, 267 patients were discharged with no further cardiac therapy, 88 patients were discharged with additional medical therapy, and 19 patients underwent coronary artery by-pass grafting or percutaneous intervention. 164 patients with incidental findings on the chest CT (computed tomography) accompanying calcium scoring were reviewed, of which 88 patients underwent further tests and follow-up for noncardiac causes of chest pain. The correlations between all major risk factors and calcium scores were weak except for a combination of diabetes and hypertension in the male gender (P = 0.012), The use of calcium scoring and pretest risk appeared to reduce the number of unnecessary cardiac investigations in our patients: however, the calcium scoring test produced a high number of incidental findings on the associated CT scans. PMID:25722981

The Impact of Hypothyroidism and Heart Failure on Hospitalization Risk.

PubMed

Ro, Kevin; Yuen, Alexander D; Du, Lin; Ro, Clarissa C; Seger, Christian D; Yeh, Michael W; Leung, Angela M; Rhee, Connie M

2018-06-13

Prior studies suggest that the relationship between hypothyroidism and mortality is dependent on underlying cardiovascular risk. Little is known about the association of hypothyroidism with hospitalization risk, and how these associations are modified by cardiovascular status. We examined the association of thyroid status, defined by serum thyrotropin (TSH), with hospitalization risk among patients who received care from a large university-based tertiary care center over 1990-2015. Thyroid status was categorized as hypothyroidism vs. euthyroidism (TSH >4.7 vs. 0.3-4.7mIU/L, respectively). We examined the relationship between thyroid status and hospitalization risk stratified by cardiovascular status using multivariable Cox models. Among 52,856 patients who met eligibility criteria, 49,791 (94.2%) had euthyroidism and 3,065 (5.8%) had hypothyroidism. In analyses stratified by congestive heart failure (CHF) status, compared to euthyroidism, hypothyroidism was associated with higher risk of hospitalization in those with CHF but slightly lower risk in those without CHF (adjusted HRs [aHRs] [95%CI] 1.86 [1.17-2.94] and 0.95 [0.92-0.99], respectively; p-interaction=0.006). In sensitivity analyses accounting for death as a competing event, underlying coronary artery disease (CAD) modified the hypothyroidism-hospitalization relationship, such that stronger associations were observed among those with vs. without CAD. In competing risk analyses, hypothyroidism was associated with higher vs. lower risk of hospitalization among those with vs. without cerebrovascular disease, respectively. Hypothyroidism is associated with higher hospitalization risk among patients with underlying cardiovascular disease. Future studies are needed to determine whether correction of thyroid status with replacement therapy ameliorates hospitalization risk in this population.

Age modifies the risk factor profiles for acute kidney injury among recently diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients: a population-based study.

PubMed

Chao, Chia-Ter; Wang, Jui; Wu, Hon-Yen; Huang, Jenq-Wen; Chien, Kuo-Liong

2018-04-01

The incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) rises with age and is associated with multiple risk factors. Here, we compared the risk factors for AKI between younger and older incident diabetic patients to examine the trends in risk alteration for individual factors across different age groups. Between 2007 and 2013, we selected all incident type 2 diabetic adults from the Taiwan National Health Insurance registry, stratified based on age: young (< 65 years), old (≥ 65 but < 75 years), and older-old (≥ 75 years). All factors with potential renal influence (e.g., comorbidities, medications, and diagnostics/procedures) were recorded during the study period, with a nested case-controlled approach utilized to identify independent risk factors for AKI in each age group. Totally, 930,709 type 2 diabetic patients were categorized as young (68.7%), old (17.7%), or older-old (13.6%). Older-old patients showed a significantly higher incidence of AKI than the old and the young groups. Cardiovascular morbidities (hypertension, atrial fibrillation, acute coronary syndrome, and cerebrovascular disease) were shown to increase the risk of AKI, although the risk declined with increasing age. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and receiving cardiac catheterization elevated the risk of AKI preferentially in the older-old/old and older-old group, respectively, while the administration of angiotensin-converting enzyme/α-blocker and angiotensin receptor blocker/calcium channel blocker reduced the risk of AKI preferentially in the older-old and older-old/old group, respectively. In conclusion, our findings highlight the importance of devising age-specific risk factor panels for AKI in patients with recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes.

Risk of Febuxostat-Associated Myopathy in Patients with CKD

PubMed Central

Liu, Chung-te; Chen, Chun-You; Hsu, Chien-Yi; Lin, Feng-Yen; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Lin, Shing-Jong

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Febuxostat, a nonpurine xanthine oxidase inhibitor, is widely used to treat hyperuricemia. Although febuxostat-associated rhabdomyolysis was reported in some patients with CKD, the association between CKD and febuxostat-associated myopathy remains uncertain. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Our retrospective cohort study included 1332 patients using febuxostat in Taipei Medical University–Wanfang Hospital from February of 2014 to January of 2016. The primary predictor was time-averaged eGFR as calculated by the equation proposed by the 2009 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration. The outcome was febuxostat-associated myopathy defined as elevated creatine kinase levels during febuxostat use that were not attributed to other muscular injuries. Results The median duration of febuxostat use was 224 days (25th, 75th percentiles: 86, 441.5 days). Of 1332 study participants, 1222 (91.7%) had CKD; the median eGFR was 20.8 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (25th, 75th percentiles: 9.0, 35.4 ml/min per 1.73 m2). Forty-one of the participants had febuxostat-associated myopathy (3.2%). All patients with myopathy had CKD, and the incident rate was 0.013 (95% confidence interval, 0.01 to 0.02) events per 100 patient-days in patients with CKD. Of 41 patients with myopathy, 37 had myositis, and four had rhabdomyolysis. Myopathy resolved in 17 patients who withdrew from treatment and eight patients who continued febuxostat treatment. Among the evaluated predictors, multivariate analysis showed that only the lowest eGFR tertile was significantly associated with myopathy in febuxostat users. The odds ratio of the lowest eGFR tertile to the highest tertile was 4.21 (95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 10.43). This finding remained consistent among subgroups stratified by age, sex, diabetes status, coronary artery disease, and statin or fibrate use. Conclusions Patients with severely reduced eGFR had higher risk of myopathy with treatment of febuxostat

Risk of Febuxostat-Associated Myopathy in Patients with CKD.

PubMed

Liu, Chung-Te; Chen, Chun-You; Hsu, Chien-Yi; Huang, Po-Hsun; Lin, Feng-Yen; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Lin, Shing-Jong

2017-05-08

Febuxostat, a nonpurine xanthine oxidase inhibitor, is widely used to treat hyperuricemia. Although febuxostat-associated rhabdomyolysis was reported in some patients with CKD, the association between CKD and febuxostat-associated myopathy remains uncertain. Our retrospective cohort study included 1332 patients using febuxostat in Taipei Medical University-Wanfang Hospital from February of 2014 to January of 2016. The primary predictor was time-averaged eGFR as calculated by the equation proposed by the 2009 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration. The outcome was febuxostat-associated myopathy defined as elevated creatine kinase levels during febuxostat use that were not attributed to other muscular injuries. The median duration of febuxostat use was 224 days (25th, 75th percentiles: 86, 441.5 days). Of 1332 study participants, 1222 (91.7%) had CKD; the median eGFR was 20.8 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (25th, 75th percentiles: 9.0, 35.4 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ). Forty-one of the participants had febuxostat-associated myopathy (3.2%). All patients with myopathy had CKD, and the incident rate was 0.013 (95% confidence interval, 0.01 to 0.02) events per 100 patient-days in patients with CKD. Of 41 patients with myopathy, 37 had myositis, and four had rhabdomyolysis. Myopathy resolved in 17 patients who withdrew from treatment and eight patients who continued febuxostat treatment. Among the evaluated predictors, multivariate analysis showed that only the lowest eGFR tertile was significantly associated with myopathy in febuxostat users. The odds ratio of the lowest eGFR tertile to the highest tertile was 4.21 (95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 10.43). This finding remained consistent among subgroups stratified by age, sex, diabetes status, coronary artery disease, and statin or fibrate use. Patients with severely reduced eGFR had higher risk of myopathy with treatment of febuxostat. Regular monitoring of creatine kinase level is suggested for early detection of febuxostat

Noninvasive Computed Tomography-based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial.

PubMed

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

2015-09-15

Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas.

Characterization and classification of patients with different levels of cardiac death risk by using Poincaré plot analysis.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Javier; Voss, Andreas; Caminal, Pere; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Giraldo, Beatriz F

2017-07-01

Cardiac death risk is still a big problem by an important part of the population, especially in elderly patients. In this study, we propose to characterize and analyze the cardiovascular and cardiorespiratory systems using the Poincaré plot. A total of 46 cardiomyopathy patients and 36 healthy subjets were analyzed. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was used to stratify patients with low risk (LR: LVEF > 35%, 16 patients), and high risk (HR: LVEF ≤ 35%, 30 patients) of heart attack. RR, SBP and T Tot time series were extracted from the ECG, blood pressure and respiratory flow signals, respectively. Parameters that describe the scatterplott of Poincaré method, related to short- and long-term variabilities, acceleration and deceleration of the dynamic system, and the complex correlation index were extracted. The linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and the support vector machines (SVM) classification methods were used to analyze the results of the extracted parameters. The results showed that cardiac parameters were the best to discriminate between HR and LR groups, especially the complex correlation index (p = 0.009). Analising the interaction, the best result was obtained with the relation between the difference of the standard deviation of the cardiac and respiratory system (p = 0.003). When comparing HR vs LR groups, the best classification was obtained applying SVM method, using an ANOVA kernel, with an accuracy of 98.12%. An accuracy of 97.01% was obtained by comparing patients versus healthy, with a SVM classifier and Laplacian kernel. The morphology of Poincaré plot introduces parameters that allow the characterization of the cardiorespiratory system dynamics.

Radiative transfer in a plane stratified dielectric

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilheit, T. T., Jr.

1975-01-01

A model is developed for calculating radiative transfer in a stratified dielectric. This model is used to show that the reflectivity of a stratified dielectric is primarily determined by gradients in the real part of the refractive index over distances on the order of 1/10 wavelength in the medium. The effective temperature of the medium is determined by the thermodynamic temperature profile over distances of the order delta T.

Using a fast Fourier method to model sound propagation in a stratified atmosphere over a stratified porous-elastic ground

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tooms, S.; Attenborough, K.

1990-01-01

Using a Fast Fourier integration method and a global matrix method for solution of the boundary condition equations at all interfaces simultaneously, a useful tool for predicting acoustic propagation in a stratified fluid over a stratified porous-elastic solid was developed. The model for the solid is a modified Biot-Stoll model incorporating four parameters describing the pore structure corresponding to the Rayleigh-Attenborough rigid-porous structure model. The method is also compared to another Fast Fourier code (CERL-FFP) which models the ground as an impedance surface under a horizontally stratified air. Agreement with the CERL FFP is good. The effects on sound propagation of a combination of ground elasticity, complex ground structure, and atmospheric conditions are demonstrated by theoretical results over a snow layer, and experimental results over a model ground surface.

A prospective validation of the Bova score in normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Bova, Carlo; Vanni, Simone; Prandoni, Paolo; Morello, Fulvio; Dentali, Francesco; Bernardi, Enrico; Mumoli, Nicola; Bucherini, Eugenio; Barbar, Sofia; Picariello, Claudio; Enea, Iolanda; Pesavento, Raffaele; Bottino, Fabrizio; Jiménez, David

2018-05-01

The Bova score has shown usefulness in the identification of intermediate-high risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), but lacks prospective validation. The aim of this study was to prospectively validate the Bova score in different settings from the original derivation cohort. Consecutive, normotensive patients with acute PE recruited at 13 academic or general hospitals were stratified, using their baseline data, into the three Bova risk stages (I-III). The primary outcome was the 30-day composite of PE-related mortality, hemodynamic collapse and non-fatal PE recurrences in the three risk categories. In the study period, 639 patients were enrolled. The primary end point occurred in 45 patients (7.0%; 95% Confidence Intervals, 5.2%-9.3%). Risk stage correlated with the PE-related complication rate (stage I, 2.9%; stage II, 17%; stage III, 27%). Patients classified as stage III by the Bova score had a 6.5-fold increased risk for adverse outcomes (3.1-13.5, p < 0.001) compared with stages I and II combined. Rescue thrombolysis increased from stage I to stage III (0.6%, 12% and 15% respectively). All-cause mortality (5.3%) did not substantially differ among the stages. The Bova score accurately stratifies normotensive patients with acute PE into stages of increasing risk of 30-day PE-related complications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is Anesthesia Technique Associated With a Higher Risk of Mortality or Complications Within 90 Days of Surgery for Geriatric Patients With Hip Fractures?

PubMed

Desai, Vimal; Chan, Priscilla H; Prentice, Heather A; Zohman, Gary L; Diekmann, Glenn R; Maletis, Gregory B; Fasig, Brian H; Diaz, Diana; Chung, Elena; Qiu, Chunyuan

2018-06-01

% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.35; p < 0.001); however, when stratified by before and after hospital discharge but within 90 days of surgery, this higher risk was only observed during the inpatient stay (HR, 3.83; 95% CI, 3.18-4.61; p < 0.001); no difference was observed after hospital discharge (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.94-1.16; p = 0.408). Patients undergoing conversion from regional to general also had a higher overall mortality risk compared with those undergoing regional anesthesia (HR, 1.34; 95% CI 1.04-1.74; p = 0.026), but this risk was only observed during their inpatient stay (HR, 6.84; 95% CI, 4.21-11.11; p < 0.001) when stratifying by before and after hospital discharge. Patients undergoing general anesthesia had a higher risk for all-cause readmission when compared with regional anesthesia (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.19; p = 0.026). No differences according to anesthesia type were observed for risk of 90-day AHRQ outcomes, including DVT/PE, MI, and pneumonia. We found the use of general anesthesia and conversion from regional to general anesthesia were associated with a higher risk of mortality during the in-hospital stay compared with regional anesthetic techniques, but this higher risk did not persist after hospital discharge. We also found general anesthesia to be associated with a higher risk of all-cause readmission compared with regional, but no other differences were observed in risk for complications. Our findings suggest regional anesthetic techniques may be preferred when possible in this patient population. Level III, therapeutic study.

Impact of living and socioeconomic characteristics on cardiovascular risk in ischemic stroke patients.

PubMed

Amarenco, Pierre; Abboud, Halim; Labreuche, Julien; Arauz, Antonio; Bryer, Alan; Lavados, Pablo M; Massaro, Ayrton; Munoz Collazos, Mario; Steg, Philippe Gabriel; Yamout, Bassem I; Vicaut, Eric

2014-12-01

We aimed to stratify the risk of vascular event recurrence in patients with cerebral infarction according to living and socioeconomic characteristics and geographic region. The Outcomes in Patients with TIA and Cerebrovascular Disease (OPTIC) study is an international prospective study of patients aged 45 years or older who required secondary prevention of stroke [following either an acute transient ischemic attack, minor ischemic strokes, or recent (less than six-months previous), stable, first-ever, nondisabling ischemic stroke]. A total 3635 patients from 245 centers in 17 countries in four regions (Latin America, Middle East, North Africa, South Africa) were enrolled between 2007 and 2008. The outcome measure was the two-year rate of a composite of major vascular events (vascular death, myocardial infarction and stroke). During the two-year follow-up period, 516 patients experienced at least one major cardiovascular event, resulting in an event rate of 15·6% (95% confidence interval 14·4-16·9%). Event rates varied across geographical region (P < 0·001), ranging from 13·0% in Latin America to 20·7% in North Africa. Unemployment status, living in a rural area, not living in fully serviced accommodation (i.e., house or apartment with its own electricity, toilet and water supply), no health insurance coverage, and low educational level (less than two-years of schooling) were predictors of major vascular events. Major vascular event rates steeply increased with the number of low-quality living/socioeconomic conditions (from 13·4% to 47·9%, adjusted P value for trend <0·001). Vascular risk in stroke patients in low- and middle-income countries varies not only with the number of arterial beds involved but also with socioeconomic variables. © 2014 World Stroke Organization.

The Population-Based Long-Term Impact of Anticoagulant and Antiplatelet Therapies in Low-Risk Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

PubMed

Golive, Anjani; May, Heidi T; Bair, Tami L; Jacobs, Victoria; Crandall, Brian G; Cutler, Michael J; Day, John D; Mallender, Charles; Osborn, Jeffrey S; Stevens, Scott M; Weiss, J Peter; Woller, Scott C; Bunch, T Jared

2017-07-01

Among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), the risk of stroke risk is a significant concern. CHADS 2 and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc ≤2 scoring have been used to stratify patients into categories of risk. Without randomized, prospective data, the need and type of long-term antithrombotic medications for thromboembolism prevention in lower risk AF patients remains controversial. We sought to define the long-term impact of anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy use in AF patients at low risk of stroke. A total of 56,764 patients diagnosed with AF and a CHADS 2 score of 0 or 1, or CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 0, 1, or 2 were studied. Antithrombotic therapy was defined as aspirin, clopidogrel (antiplatelet therapy), or warfarin monotherapy (anticoagulation) initiated within 6 months of AF diagnosis. End points included all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular accident, transient ischemic attack (TIA), and major bleed. The average age of the population was 67.0 ± 14.1 years and 56.6% were male. In total, 9,682 received aspirin, 1,802 received clopidogrel, 1,164 received warfarin, and 46,042 did not receive any antithrombotic therapy. Event rates differed between patients with a CHADS 2 score of 0 and 1; 18.5% and 37.8% had died, 1.7% and 3.4% had a stroke, 2.2% and 3.2% had a TIA, and 14% and 12.5% had a major bleed, respectively (p <0.0001 for all). The rates of stroke, TIA, and major bleeding increased as antithrombotic therapy intensity increased from no therapy, to aspirin, to clopidogrel, and to warfarin (all p <0.0001). Similar outcomes were observed in low-risk CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores (0 to 2). In low-risk AF patients with a CHADS 2 score of 0 to 1 or CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 0 to 2, the use of aspirin, clopidogrel, and warfarin was not associated with lower stroke rates at 5 years compared with no therapy. However, the use of antithrombotic agents was associated with a significant risk of bleed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early eradication has a lower risk of peptic ulcer bleeding in Helicobacter pylori-infected chronic kidney disease patients.

PubMed

Hsu, Ching-Hui; Hu, Hsiao-Yun; Huang, Nicole; Chang, Shen-Shong

2016-09-01

End stage renal disease (ESRD) contributes to a higher mortality rate in peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) patients. A crucial question is whether early Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) eradication therapy is necessary for H. pylori-infected chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. To explore whether H. pylori eradication therapy has a lower risk of PUB at the pre-ESRD stage than at the ESRD stage. Patients meeting 2 criteria were defined as newly diagnosed ESRD cases: (1) patients diagnosed with ESRD and receiving regular dialysis between 2000 and 2009; and (2) patients with no history of dialysis between 1997 and 1999. We divided the study participants into pre-ESRD and ESRD groups on the basis of the time between H. pylori eradication and dialysis. The date of the first PUB diagnosis was defined as the primary endpoint. Stratified Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to estimate the effect of H. pylori eradication at the pre-ESRD and ESRD stage on the occurrence of PUB. We included 476 patients in the pre-ESRD cohort and 476 patients in the matched ESRD cohort. After adjustment for age, sex, the presence of comorbidities, and medication use, the hazard ratio of PUB was 0.66 times less in the pre-ESRD cohort than in the ESRD cohort. Factors such as Charlson's score more than 3, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were associated with an increased risk of PUB. Our result supports that early H. pylori eradication has a lower risk of PUB in H. pylori-infected CKD patients. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expecting motherhood? Stratifying reproduction in twenty-first century Scottish abortion practice

PubMed Central

Beynon-Jones, Siân M.

2015-01-01

This article illustrates how Scottish health professionals involved in contemporary abortion provision construct stratified expectations about women’s reproductive decision-making. Drawing on 42 semi-structured interviews I reveal the contingent discourses through which health professionals constitute the ‘rationality’ of the female subject who requests abortion. Specifically, I illustrate how youth, age, parity and class are mobilised as criteria through which to distinguish ‘types’ of patient whose requests for abortion are deemed particularly understandable or particularly problematic. I conceptualise this process of differentiation as a form of ‘stratified reproduction’ (Colen, 1995; Ginsburg and Rapp, 1995) and argue that it is significant for two reasons. Firstly, it illustrates the operation of dominant discourses concerning abortion and motherhood in twenty-first century Britain. Secondly, it extends the forms of critique which feminist scholarship has, to date, developed of the regulation of abortion provision in the UK. PMID:25774067

A group matrix representation relevant to scales of measurement of clinical disease states via stratified vectors.

PubMed

Sawamura, Jitsuki; Morishita, Shigeru; Ishigooka, Jun

2016-02-09

Previously, we applied basic group theory and related concepts to scales of measurement of clinical disease states and clinical findings (including laboratory data). To gain a more concrete comprehension, we here apply the concept of matrix representation, which was not explicitly exploited in our previous work. Starting with a set of orthonormal vectors, called the basis, an operator Rj (an N-tuple patient disease state at the j-th session) was expressed as a set of stratified vectors representing plural operations on individual components, so as to satisfy the group matrix representation. The stratified vectors containing individual unit operations were combined into one-dimensional square matrices [Rj]s. The [Rj]s meet the matrix representation of a group (ring) as a K-algebra. Using the same-sized matrix of stratified vectors, we can also express changes in the plural set of [Rj]s. The method is demonstrated on simple examples. Despite the incompleteness of our model, the group matrix representation of stratified vectors offers a formal mathematical approach to clinical medicine, aligning it with other branches of natural science.

The influence of baseline risk on the relation between HbA1c and risk for new cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and symptomatic cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Bots, Sophie H; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Nathoe, Hendrik M W; de Borst, Gert Jan; Kappelle, Jaap L; Visseren, Frank L J; Westerink, Jan

2016-07-19

Strict glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes has proven to have microvascular benefits while the effects on CVD and mortality are less clear, especially in high risk patients. Whether strict glycaemic control would reduce the risk of future CVD or mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and pre-existing CVD, is unknown. This study aims to evaluate whether the relation between baseline HbA1c and new cardiovascular events or mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) is modified by baseline vascular risk. A cohort of 1096 patients with type 2 diabetes and CVD from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial Disease (SMART) study was followed. The relation between HbA1c at baseline and future vascular events (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular mortality) and all-cause mortality was evaluated with Cox proportional hazard analyses in a population that was stratified for baseline risk for vascular events as calculated with the SMART risk score. The mean follow-up duration was 6.9 years for all-cause mortality and 6.4 years for vascular events, in which period 243 and 223 cases were reported, respectively. A 1 % increase in HbA1c was associated with a higher risk for all-cause mortality (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.06-1.31). This association was also found in the highest SMART risk quartile (HR 1.33, 95 % CI 1.11-1.60). There was no relation between HbA1c and the occurrence of cardiovascular events during follow-up (HR 1.03, 95 % CI 0.91-1.16). The interaction term between HbA1c and SMART risk score was not significantly related to any of the outcomes. In patients with type 2 diabetes and CVD, HbA1c is related to the risk of all-cause mortality, but not to the risk of cardiovascular events. The relation between HbA1c and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and vascular disease is not dependent on baseline vascular risk.

Baseline characteristics predict risk of progression and response to combined medical therapy for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH).

PubMed

Kozminski, Michael A; Wei, John T; Nelson, Jason; Kent, David M

2015-02-01

To better risk stratify patients, using baseline characteristics, to help optimise decision-making for men with moderate-to-severe lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) through a secondary analysis of the Medical Therapy of Prostatic Symptoms (MTOPS) trial. After review of the literature, we identified potential baseline risk factors for BPH progression. Using bivariate tests in a secondary analysis of MTOPS data, we determined which variables retained prognostic significance. We then used these factors in Cox proportional hazard modelling to: i) more comprehensively risk stratify the study population based on pre-treatment parameters and ii) to determine which risk strata stood to benefit most from medical intervention. In all, 3047 men were followed in MTOPS for a mean of 4.5 years. We found varying risks of progression across quartiles. Baseline BPH Impact Index score, post-void residual urine volume, serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, age, American Urological Association Symptom Index score, and maximum urinary flow rate were found to significantly correlate with overall BPH progression in multivariable analysis. Using baseline factors permits estimation of individual patient risk for clinical progression and the benefits of medical therapy. A novel clinical decision tool based on these analyses will allow clinicians to weigh patient-specific benefits against possible risks of adverse effects for a given patient. © 2014 The Authors. BJU International © 2014 BJU International.

Methods to assess performance of models estimating risk of death in intensive care patients: a review.

PubMed

Cook, D A

2006-04-01

Models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care unit patients can be used to stratify patients according to the severity of their condition and to control for casemix and severity of illness. These models have been used for risk adjustment in quality monitoring, administration, management and research and as an aid to clinical decision making. Models such as the Mortality Prediction Model family, SAPS II, APACHE II, APACHE III and the organ system failure models provide estimates of the probability of in-hospital death of ICU patients. This review examines methods to assess the performance of these models. The key attributes of a model are discrimination (the accuracy of the ranking in order of probability of death) and calibration (the extent to which the model's prediction of probability of death reflects the true risk of death). These attributes should be assessed in existing models that predict the probability of patient mortality, and in any subsequent model that is developed for the purposes of estimating these probabilities. The literature contains a range of approaches for assessment which are reviewed and a survey of the methodologies used in studies of intensive care mortality models is presented. The systematic approach used by Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy provides a framework to incorporate these theoretical considerations of model assessment and recommendations are made for evaluation and presentation of the performance of models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care patients.

Risk factors and outcome of increased red blood cell transfusion in cardiac surgical patients aged 65 years and older.

PubMed

Isil, Canan Tulay; Yazici, Pinar; Bakir, Ihsan

2015-02-01

The use of blood products is not uncommon during cardiac surgery in elderly patients. We conducted this study to investigate the risk factors and adverse outcomes of increased red blood cell (RBC) transfusion in the patients aged ≥ 65 years undergoing cardiac surgery. During 1 year period, 288 patients (197 male/91 female) aged ≥ 65 years who underwent coronary and/or valvular surgery were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were stratified into groups on the basis of the number of transfusions received (< 4 and ≥ 4 U) which was classified as increased transfusion. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify risk factors for increased transfusion. The mean unit of RBC transfusion was 4.5 ± 3.1 and 55.9% (n = 161) of patients received ≥ 4 U RBC. The overall postoperative complication rate was 36% and significantly higher in those with ≥ 4 U) RBC transfusion (p < 0.01). Risk factors including age, EuroSCORE, and low body surface were significantly higher in patient with ≥ 4 U RBC transfusion. Besides, preoperative anemia, postoperative drainage volume, and fresh frozen plasma (FFP) transfusion during hospital stay were found to be significantly associated with increased transfusion requirements. No difference was observed in mortality (p = 0.13). These results suggest that improvement in blood transfusion policy in elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery requires elimination of preoperative anemia, careful attention to surgical hemostasis, and FFP use. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Risk Group Systems for Penile Cancer Management: A Study of 203 Patients With Invasive Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Chaux, Alcides

2015-10-01

To evaluate the accuracy of previously published risk group systems for predicting inguinal nodal metastases in patients with penile carcinoma. Two hundred three cases of invasive penile squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) were stratified using the following systems: Solsona et al (J Urol 2001;165:1509), Hungerhuber et al (Urology 2006;68:621), and the system proposed by the European Association of Urology (EAU; Eur Urol 2004;46:1). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was carried out to compare accuracy in predicting final nodal status and cancer-related death. Most of cases were pT2/pT3 high-grade tumors with a small percentage of low-grade pT1 carcinomas. The metastatic rates for the Solsona et al, EAU, and Hungerhuber et al systems in the high-risk category were 15 of 73 (21%), 16 of 103 (16%), and 10 of 35 (29%) in patients with clinically negative inguinal lymph nodes and 52 of 75 (69%), 55 of 93 (59%), and 34 of 47 (72%) in patients with palpable inguinal lymph nodes, respectively. Performance by ROC analysis showed a low accuracy for all stratification systems although the Solsona et al and the Hungerhuber et al systems performed better than the EAU system. Patients in intermediate-risk categories and with clinically palpable inguinal lymph nodes were more likely to have nodal metastasis than patients with clinically negative lymph nodes in the same category. These stratification systems may be useful for patients with low-grade superficial tumors and less accurate for evaluating patients with high-grade locally advanced penile carcinomas. These data may be useful for therapeutic planning of patients with penile SCC. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of colorectal cancer in Asian patients with ulcerative colitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bopanna, Sawan; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N; Kedia, Saurabh; Yajnik, Vijay; Ahuja, Vineet

2017-04-01

The increased risk of colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis is well known. The risk of sporadic colorectal cancer in Asian populations is considered low and risk estimates of colorectal cancer related to ulcerative colitis from Asia vary. This meta-analysis is an Asian perspective on the risk of colorectal cancer related to ulcerative colitis. We searched PubMed and Embase for terms related to colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis from inception to July 1, 2016. The search for published articles was done by country for all countries in Asia. We included studies with information on the prevalence and cumulative risk of colorectal cancer at various timepoints. A random-effects meta-analysis was done to calculate the pooled prevalence as well as a cumulative risk at 10 years, 20 years, and 30 years of disease. Our search identified 2575 articles; of which 44 were eligible for inclusion. Our analysis included a total of 31 287 patients with ulcerative colitis with a total of 293 reported colorectal cancers. Using pooled prevalence estimates from various studies, the overall prevalence was 0·85% (95% CI 0·65-1·04). The risks for colorectal cancer were 0·02% (95% CI 0·00-0·04) at 10 years, 4·81% (3·26-6·36) at 20 years, and 13·91% (7·09-20·72) at 30 years. Subgroup analysis by stratifying the studies according to region or period of the study did not reveal any significant differences. We found the risk of colorectal cancer in Asian patients with ulcerative colitis was similar to recent estimates in Europe and North America. Adherence to screening is therefore necessary. Larger population-based, prospective studies are required for better estimates of the risk. Indo-US Science and Technology Forum. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of colorectal cancer in Asian patients with ulcerative colitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Bopanna, Sawan; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N; Kedia, Saurabh; Yajnik, Vijay; Ahuja, Vineet

2017-01-01

Summary Background The increased risk of colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis is well known. The risk of sporadic colorectal cancer in Asian populations is considered low and risk estimates of colorectal cancer related to ulcerative colitis from Asia vary. This meta-analysis is an Asian perspective on the risk of colorectal cancer related to ulcerative colitis. Methods We searched PubMed and Embase for terms related to colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis from inception to July 1, 2016. The search for published articles was done by country for all countries in Asia. We included studies with information on the prevalence and cumulative risk of colorectal cancer at various timepoints. A random-effects meta-analysis was done to calculate the pooled prevalence as well as a cumulative risk at 10 years, 20 years, and 30 years of disease. Findings Our search identified 2575 articles; of which 44 were eligible for inclusion. Our analysis included a total of 31 287 patients with ulcerative colitis with a total of 293 reported colorectal cancers. Using pooled prevalence estimates from various studies, the overall prevalence was 0·85% (95% CI 0·65–1·04). The risks for colorectal cancer were 0·02% (95% CI 0·00–0·04) at 10 years, 4·81% (3·26–6·36) at 20 years, and 13·91% (7·09–20·72) at 30 years. Subgroup analysis by stratifying the studies according to region or period of the study did not reveal any significant differences. Interpretation We found the risk of colorectal cancer in Asian patients with ulcerative colitis was similar to recent estimates in Europe and North America. Adherence to screening is therefore necessary. Larger population-based, prospective studies are required for better estimates of the risk. PMID:28404156

An Electronic Patient Risk Communication Board

PubMed Central

Ohashi, Kumiko; Caligtan, Christine A.; Benoit, Angela N.; Breydo, Eugene M.; Carroll, Diane L.; Keohane, Carol A.; Bates, David W.; Dykes, John S.; Dykes, Patricia C.

2012-01-01

Communication failures have been identified as the root cause of the majority of medical malpractice claims and patient safety violations. We believe it is essential to share key patient risk information with healthcare team members at the patient’s bedside. In this study, we developed an electronic Patient Risk Communication Board (ePRCB) to assist in bridging the communication gap between all health care team members. The goal of the ePRCB is to effectively communicate the patient’s key risk factors, such as a fall risk or risk of aspiration, to the healthcare team and to reduce adverse events caused by communication failures. The ePRCB will transmit patient risk information and tailored interventions with easy-to-understand icons on an LCD screen at the point of care. A set of patient risk reminder icons was developed and validated by focus groups. We used the results of the evaluation to refine the icons for the ePRCB. PMID:24199109

Comparison of exact, efron and breslow parameter approach method on hazard ratio and stratified cox regression model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatekurohman, Mohamat; Nurmala, Nita; Anggraeni, Dian

2018-04-01

Lungs are the most important organ, in the case of respiratory system. Problems related to disorder of the lungs are various, i.e. pneumonia, emphysema, tuberculosis and lung cancer. Comparing all those problems, lung cancer is the most harmful. Considering about that, the aim of this research applies survival analysis and factors affecting the endurance of the lung cancer patient using comparison of exact, Efron and Breslow parameter approach method on hazard ratio and stratified cox regression model. The data applied are based on the medical records of lung cancer patients in Jember Paru-paru hospital on 2016, east java, Indonesia. The factors affecting the endurance of the lung cancer patients can be classified into several criteria, i.e. sex, age, hemoglobin, leukocytes, erythrocytes, sedimentation rate of blood, therapy status, general condition, body weight. The result shows that exact method of stratified cox regression model is better than other. On the other hand, the endurance of the patients is affected by their age and the general conditions.

Familial Risk of Biliary Tract Cancers: A Population-Based Study in Utah.

PubMed

Samadder, N Jewel; Smith, Ken Robert; Wong, Jathine; Hanson, Heidi; Boucher, Kenneth; Burt, Randall W; Charlton, Michael; Byrne, Kathryn R; Gallegos-Orozco, Juan F; Koptiuch, Cathryn; Curtin, Karen

2016-12-01

Biliary tract cancers (BTC) including, cholangiocarcinoma (CC) and gallbladder cancer (GBC), are rare and highly fatal malignancies. The etiology and inherited susceptibility of both malignancies are poorly understood. We quantified the risk of BTC in first-degree (FDR), second-degree (SDR), and first cousin (FC) relatives of individuals with BTC, stratified by tumor subsite. BTC diagnosed between 1980 and 2011 were identified from the Utah Cancer Registry and linked to pedigrees from the Utah Population Database. Age- and gender-matched BTC-free controls were selected to form the comparison group for determining BTC risk in relatives using Cox regression analysis. Of the 1302 index patients diagnosed with BTC, 550 (42.2 %) were located in the gallbladder and 752 (57.8 %) were cholangiocarcinomas. There was no elevated risk of BTC (all subsites combined) in FDRs (HR 0.94, 95 % CI 0.29-3.0), SDRs (HR 0.25, 95 % CI 0.06-1.03), and FCs (HR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.61-1.51) of BTC cases compared to cancer-free controls. Similarly, no increased familial risk of GBC or CC was found in relatives of BTC patients stratified by tumor subsite compared to relatives of controls. Relatives of BTC patients are not at an increased risk of GBC or CC in a statewide population. This suggests that biliary tract cancer risk is not associated with a familial predisposition and may be mitigated more strongly by environmental modifiers.

Early versus late percutaneous revascularization in patients hospitalized with non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: The atherosclerosis risk in communities surveillance study.

PubMed

Arora, Sameer; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Qamar, Arman; Stacey, R Brandon; Caughey, Melissa C

2018-02-01

Current guidelines recommend early invasive intervention (<24 hr) for high risk patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). A delayed invasive strategy (24-72 hr) is considered reasonable for low risk patients. The real-world effectiveness of this strategy is unknown. The ARIC Study has conducted hospital surveillance of acute myocardial infarction (MI) since 1987. NSTEMI was classified using a validated algorithm. We limited our study to patients undergoing early (<24 hr of the event onset), or late (≥24 hr) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients were stratified into low (TIMI score 2-4), and high risk (TIMI score 5-7, or presence of cardiogenic shock, ventricular fibrillation, or cardiac arrest). Associations between early versus late PCI and mortality were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for demographics, hospitalization year, TIMI score, and comorbidities. From 1987 to 2012, 6,746 patients were hospitalized with NSTEMI and underwent PCI. Most were white (79%), male (68%), with mean age 61 years. The 28-day and 1-year mortality were 2% and 5%, respectively. Most revascularizations (65%) were late. After accounting for potential confounders, early PCI was associated with a 58% reduced 28-day mortality (OR = 0.42; 95% CI: 0.21-0.84) for the entire population, and 57% reduced mortality (OR = 0.43; 95% CI: 0.21-0.88) for high risk patients. By 1-year of follow up, there was no significant difference in mortality with respect to early vs. late PCI. In hospitalized NSTEMI patients with high risk of clinical events, early PCI is associated with improved 28-day survival. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Focus Group Exploration of Automated Case-Finders to Identify High-Risk Heart Failure Patients Within an Urban Safety Net Hospital.

PubMed

Patterson, Mark E; Miranda, Derick; Schuman, Greg; Eaton, Christopher; Smith, Andrew; Silver, Brad

2016-01-01

Leveraging "big data" as a means of informing cost-effective care holds potential in triaging high-risk heart failure (HF) patients for interventions within hospitals seeking to reduce 30-day readmissions. Explore provider's beliefs and perceptions about using an electronic health record (EHR)-based tool that uses unstructured clinical notes to risk-stratify high-risk heart failure patients. Six providers from an inpatient HF clinic within an urban safety net hospital were recruited to participate in a semistructured focus group. A facilitator led a discussion on the feasibility and value of using an EHR tool driven by unstructured clinical notes to help identify high-risk patients. Data collected from transcripts were analyzed using a thematic analysis that facilitated drawing conclusions clustered around categories and themes. From six categories emerged two themes: (1) challenges of finding valid and accurate results, and (2) strategies used to overcome these challenges. Although employing a tool that uses electronic medical record (EMR) unstructured text as the benchmark by which to identify high-risk patients is efficient, choosing appropriate benchmark groups could be challenging given the multiple causes of readmission. Strategies to mitigate these challenges include establishing clear selection criteria to guide benchmark group composition, and quality outcome goals for the hospital. Prior to implementing into practice an innovative EMR-based case-finder driven by unstructured clinical notes, providers are advised to do the following: (1) define patient quality outcome goals, (2) establish criteria by which to guide benchmark selection, and (3) verify the tool's validity and reliability. Achieving consensus on these issues would be necessary for this innovative EHR-based tool to effectively improve clinical decision-making and in turn, decrease readmissions for high-risk patients.

Vortex ring motions in stratified media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auvity, Bruno; Koulal, Mokrane; Dupont, Pascal; Peerhossaini, Hassan

2003-11-01

The behavior of vortex rings generated in a stably stratified media has received only weak treatment in the literature. This configuration is believed to shed light on the basic phenomena involved in the collapse of wake in stratified fluid. The present study focused on experimental observations of the formation, the advection and the collapse of horizontal vortex rings in stratified media. Stable continuous vertical stratification was produced in a tank using the well-known two-tanks method. The generation of vortex ring was realized moving a piston through a tube. The maximum piston stroke achievable was seven tube diameters. The problem is mainly characterized by two parameters : the initial Reynolds number and the initial Froude number of the vortex ring. Both these numbers were varied in the study. The Reynolds number based on the tube diameter and piston velocity was in the range 1,500 - 5,500 and the Froude number based on the same parameters in the range 1.4 - 4.7. Dye visualizations were performed from the top and the side of the tank showing the vortex ring may develop an important asymmetry. Different processes to the complete collapse of the vortex ring were identified.

Melding a High-Risk Patient for Continuous Flow Left Ventricular Assist Device into a Low-Risk Patient.

PubMed

Amione-Guerra, Javier; Cruz-Solbes, Ana S; Gonzalez Bonilla, Hilda; Estep, Jerry D; Guha, Ashrith; Bhimaraj, Arvind; Suarez, Erik E; Bruckner, Brian A; Torre-Amione, Guillermo; Park, Myung H; Trachtenberg, Barry H

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used as a predictor of mortality after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement. However, improvement or worsening of MELD and how those changes affect outcomes is unknown. We performed a retrospective analysis of 244 patients implanted with a continuous flow (CF) LVAD. Patients were dichotomized at admission into low- or high-risk categories using a cutoff of MELD ≥ 19, and they were reclassified at day of implant forming four groups: Group LL (low to low, remained low risk), LH (low to high, worsened to high risk), HH (high to high, remained high risk), and HL (high to low, improved to low risk). Patients who improved to a low risk (group HL) had the same 1 year survival as those that remained low risk (group LL; 80% vs. 77%; p = 0.6). However, patients who were initially classified as low risk and worsened to a high risk (group LH) had a survival that was worse than those that were consistently high risk (group HH; 55% vs. 10%; p = 0.01). Model for end-stage liver disease reclassification after adjusting for commonly attributed risk factors remained an independent predictor for mortality, including patients classified as Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) 1 and 2. In conclusion, our MELD score reclassification is an independent and powerful predictor of mortality in patients undergoing LVAD implantation.

Use of Chronic Kidney Disease to Enhance Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Those at Medium Risk.

PubMed

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2015-01-01

Based on global cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment for example using the Framingham risk score, it is recommended that those with high risk should be treated and those with low risk should not be treated. The recommendation for those of medium risk is less clear and uncertain. We aimed to determine whether factoring in chronic kidney disease (CKD) will improve CV risk prediction in those with medium risk. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of 905 subjects in a primary care clinic setting. Baseline CV risk profile and serum creatinine in 1998 were captured from patients record. Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score (FRS) for each patient was computed. All cardiovascular disease (CVD) events from 1998-2007 were captured. Overall, patients with CKD had higher FRS risk score (25.9% vs 20%, p = 0.001) and more CVD events (22.3% vs 11.9%, p = 0.002) over a 10-year period compared to patients without CKD. In patients with medium CV risk, there was no significant difference in the FRS score among those with and without CKD (14.4% vs 14.6%, p = 0.84) However, in this same medium risk group, patients with CKD had more CV events compared to those without CKD (26.7% vs 6.6%, p = 0.005). This is in contrast to patients in the low and high risk group where there was no difference in CVD events whether these patients had or did not have CKD. There were more CV events in the Framingham medium risk group when they also had CKD compared those in the same risk group without CKD. Hence factoring in CKD for those with medium risk helps to further stratify and identify those who are actually at greater risk, when treatment may be more likely to be indicated.

Use of Chronic Kidney Disease to Enhance Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Those at Medium Risk

PubMed Central

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2015-01-01

Based on global cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment for example using the Framingham risk score, it is recommended that those with high risk should be treated and those with low risk should not be treated. The recommendation for those of medium risk is less clear and uncertain. We aimed to determine whether factoring in chronic kidney disease (CKD) will improve CV risk prediction in those with medium risk. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of 905 subjects in a primary care clinic setting. Baseline CV risk profile and serum creatinine in 1998 were captured from patients record. Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score (FRS) for each patient was computed. All cardiovascular disease (CVD) events from 1998–2007 were captured. Overall, patients with CKD had higher FRS risk score (25.9% vs 20%, p = 0.001) and more CVD events (22.3% vs 11.9%, p = 0.002) over a 10-year period compared to patients without CKD. In patients with medium CV risk, there was no significant difference in the FRS score among those with and without CKD (14.4% vs 14.6%, p = 0.84) However, in this same medium risk group, patients with CKD had more CV events compared to those without CKD (26.7% vs 6.6%, p = 0.005). This is in contrast to patients in the low and high risk group where there was no difference in CVD events whether these patients had or did not have CKD. There were more CV events in the Framingham medium risk group when they also had CKD compared those in the same risk group without CKD. Hence factoring in CKD for those with medium risk helps to further stratify and identify those who are actually at greater risk, when treatment may be more likely to be indicated. PMID:26496190

Risk stratification of patients with severe heart failure awaiting heart transplantation-prospective national registry POLKARD HF.

PubMed

Zieliński, T; Browarek, A; Zembala, M; Sadowski, J; Zakliczyński, M; Przybylowski, P; Roguski, K; Kosakowska, A B; Korewicki, J

2009-10-01

Most methods used in the risk assessment of heart transplant candidates do not include new biomarkers. The aim of the study was to examine the value of NTproBNP and hsCRP and their combined use together with HFSS score in the risk assessment of patients with heart failure enlisted for heart transplantation. Data of 658 patients enlisted for heart transplantation in all active transplantation centers were stored in a prospective registry. The composite end point-death or urgent transplantation was recorded during the follow-up. Death or urgent transplantation was recorded in 161 (24%) of pts. 102 (15%) patients died and 59 (9%) were transplanted urgently. Kaplan-Meier curves for risk of death or urgent transplantation where highly significant when pts were stratified by the quartiles of NT proBNP (P < .000001) or quartiles according to the hsCRP level on admission (P < .002). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, the significance was observed for NTproBNP (P < .01) and HFSS (P < .02), and borderline significance for hsCRP (P = .057). When ROC analyses of the area under the curve (AUC) values were considered, AUC area was for HFSS - 0.645, for NTproBNP - 0.653 and for hsCRP - 0.566. When all those variables were included together in the model, the AUC value rose to 0.6943. Based on those results a weighted risk model with all three parameters was proposed. HFSS, NTproBNP and hsCRP levels are independent stratification variables of survival or need for urgent heart transplantation. Their predictive value is moderately increased when they are analyzed together.

Influenza Vaccination is Associated with Lower Risk of Acute Coronary Syndrome in Elderly Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Chen, Chang-I; Kao, Pai-Feng; Wu, Mei-Yi; Fang, Yu-Ann; Miser, James S; Liu, Ju-Chi; Sung, Li-Chin

2016-02-01

Elderly patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at a higher risk of hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Previous studies have showed that influenza vaccination could reduce the risk of recurrent major cardiovascular events in patients with CVD. However, the effects of influenza vaccination on the reduction of first hospitalizations for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in elderly patients with CKD remain unknown.We conducted a cohort study using data from the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 1997 to 2008. This cohort study comprised elderly patients (ages ≥55 years) with a recorded diagnosis of CKD (n = 4406) between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2007. Each patient was followed up until the end of 2008. To minimize the selection bias of vaccine therapy, a propensity score adjustment was applied. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association between the influenza vaccination and the occurrence of first hospitalization for ACS was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards regression. We further categorized the patients into 4 groups according to their vaccination status (unvaccinated, and total number of vaccinations: 1, 2-3, and ≥4).We found that elderly CKD patients without prior CVD history receiving influenza vaccination exhibited a lower risk of hospitalization for ACS (adjusted HR = 0.35, 95% CI 0.30-0.42; P < 0.001). We observed consistent protective effects regardless of age groups (55-64, 65-74, and ≥75), gender, and seasonality of influenza. When the patients were stratified according to the total number of vaccinations, the adjusted HRs for first ACS hospitalization were 0.62 (95% CI 0.52-0.81), 0.35 (95% CI 0.28-0.45), and 0.13 (95% CI 0.09-0.19) for patients who received 1, 2 to 3, and ≥4 vaccinations. There was a significant trend of decreasing risk of ACS hospitalization with an increasing number of vaccinations.The results of our observational study could strengthen the

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Comorbidities among Hypertensive Patients in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Jiaojiao; Ma, Jian James; Liu, Jiaqi; Zeng, Daniel Dajun; Song, Cynthia; Cao, Zhidong

2017-01-01

Hypertension is a severe threat to human being's health due to its association with many comorbidities. Many research works have explored hypertension's prevalence and treatment. However, few considered impact of patient's socioeconomic status and geographical disparities. We intended to fulfill that research gap by analyzing the association of the prevalence of hypertension and three important comorbidities with various socioeconomic and geographical factors. We also investigated the prevalence of those comorbidities if the patient has been diagnosed with hypertension. We obtained a large collection of medical records from 29 hospitals across China. We utilized Bayes' Theorem, Pearson's chi-squared test, univariate and multivariate regression methods and geographical detector methods to analyze the association between disease prevalence and risk factors. We first attempted to quantified and analyzed the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the prevalence of hypertension comorbidities by q-statistic using geographical detector methods. We found that the demographic and socioeconomic factors, and hospital class and geographical factors would have an enhanced interactive influence on the prevalence of hypertension comorbidities. Our findings can be leveraged by public health policy makers to allocate medical resources more effectively. Healthcare practitioners can also be benefited by our analysis to offer customized disease prevention for populations with different socioeconomic status. PMID:28367080

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Comorbidities among Hypertensive Patients in China.

PubMed

Wang, Jiaojiao; Ma, Jian James; Liu, Jiaqi; Zeng, Daniel Dajun; Song, Cynthia; Cao, Zhidong

2017-01-01

Hypertension is a severe threat to human being's health due to its association with many comorbidities. Many research works have explored hypertension's prevalence and treatment. However, few considered impact of patient's socioeconomic status and geographical disparities. We intended to fulfill that research gap by analyzing the association of the prevalence of hypertension and three important comorbidities with various socioeconomic and geographical factors. We also investigated the prevalence of those comorbidities if the patient has been diagnosed with hypertension. We obtained a large collection of medical records from 29 hospitals across China. We utilized Bayes' Theorem, Pearson's chi-squared test, univariate and multivariate regression methods and geographical detector methods to analyze the association between disease prevalence and risk factors. We first attempted to quantified and analyzed the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the prevalence of hypertension comorbidities by q-statistic using geographical detector methods. We found that the demographic and socioeconomic factors, and hospital class and geographical factors would have an enhanced interactive influence on the prevalence of hypertension comorbidities. Our findings can be leveraged by public health policy makers to allocate medical resources more effectively. Healthcare practitioners can also be benefited by our analysis to offer customized disease prevention for populations with different socioeconomic status.

Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

2017-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth.

PubMed

Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

2017-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

Using procalcitonin-guided algorithms to improve antimicrobial therapy in ICU patients with respiratory infections and sepsis.

PubMed

Schuetz, Philipp; Raad, Issam; Amin, Devendra N

2013-10-01

In patients with systemic bacterial infections hospitalized in ICUs, the inflammatory biomarker procalcitonin (PCT) has been shown to aid diagnosis, antibiotic stewardship, and risk stratification. Our aim is to summarize recent evidence about the utility of PCT in the critical care setting and discuss the potential benefits and limitations of PCT when used for clinical decision-making. A growing body of evidence supports PCT use to differentiate bacterial from viral respiratory infections (including influenza), to help risk stratify patients, and to guide decisions about optimal duration of antibiotic therapy. Different PCT protocols were evaluated for these and similar purposes in randomized controlled trials in patients with varying severities of predominantly respiratory tract infection and sepsis. These trials demonstrated effectiveness of monitoring PCT to de-escalate antibiotic treatment earlier without increasing rates of relapsing infections or other adverse outcomes. Although serial PCT measurement has shown value in risk stratification of ICU patients, PCT-guided antibiotic escalation protocols have not yet shown benefit for patients. Inclusion of PCT data in clinical algorithms improves individualized decision-making regarding antibiotic treatment in patients in critical care for respiratory infections or sepsis. Future research should focus on use of repeated PCT measurements to risk-stratify patients and guide treatment to improve their outcomes.

Noninvasive Computed Tomography–based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial

PubMed Central

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A.; Bartholmai, Brian J.

2015-01-01

Rationale: Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. Objectives: To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. Methods: We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. Conclusions: CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas. PMID:26052977

Hourly differences in air pollution and risk of respiratory disease in the elderly: a time-stratified case-crossover study.

PubMed

Yorifuji, Takashi; Suzuki, Etsuji; Kashima, Saori

2014-08-13

Epidemiological studies have shown adverse effects of short-term exposure to air pollution on respiratory disease outcomes; however, few studies examined this association on an hourly time scale. We evaluated the associations between hourly changes in air pollution and the risk of respiratory disease in the elderly, using the time of the emergency call as the disease onset for each case. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design. Study participants were 6,925 residents of the city of Okayama, Japan, aged 65 or above who were taken to hospital emergency rooms between January 2006 and December 2010 for onset of respiratory disease. We calculated city-representative hourly average concentrations of air pollutants from several monitoring stations. By using conditional logistic regression models, we estimated odds ratios per interquartile-range increase in each pollutant by exposure period prior to emergency call, adjusting for hourly ambient temperature, hourly relative humidity, and weekly numbers of reported influenza cases aged ≥60. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) exposure 24 to <72 hours prior to the onset and ozone exposure 48 to <96 hours prior to the onset were associated with the increased risk of respiratory disease. For example, following one interquartile-range increase, odds ratios were 1.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.09) for SPM exposure 24 to <48 hours prior to the onset and 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.23) for ozone exposure 72 to <96 hours prior to the onset. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) exposure 0 to <24 hours prior to onset was associated with the increased risk of pneumonia and influenza: odds ratio was 1.07 per one interquartile-range increase (95% confidence interval: 1.00, 1.14). Elevated risk for pneumonia and influenza of SO2 was observed at shorter lags (i.e., 8-18 hours) than the elevated risks for respiratory disease of SPM or ozone. Overall, the effect estimates for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and allied

Predicting 30- to 120-Day Readmission Risk among Medicare Fee-for-Service Patients Using Nonmedical Workers and Mobile Technology.

PubMed

Ostrovsky, Andrey; O'Connor, Lori; Marshall, Olivia; Angelo, Amanda; Barrett, Kelsy; Majeski, Emily; Handrus, Maxwell; Levy, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

Hospital readmissions are a large source of wasteful healthcare spending, and current care transition models are too expensive to be sustainable. One way to circumvent cost-prohibitive care transition programs is complement nurse-staffed care transition programs with those staffed by less expensive nonmedical workers. A major barrier to utilizing nonmedical workers is determining the appropriate time to escalate care to a clinician with a wider scope of practice. The objective of this study is to show how mobile technology can use the observations of nonmedical workers to stratify patients on the basis of their hospital readmission risk. An area agency on aging in Massachusetts implemented a quality improvement project with the aim of reducing 30-day hospital readmission rates using a modified care transition intervention supported by mobile predictive analytics technology. Proprietary readmission risk prediction algorithms were used to predict 30-, 60-, 90-, and 120-day readmission risk. The risk score derived from the nonmedical workers' observations had a significant association with 30-day readmission rate with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.12 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1 .09-1.15) compared to an OR of 1.25 (95 percent CI, 1.19-1.32) for the risk score using nurse observations. Risk scores using nurse interpretation of nonmedical workers' observations show that patients in the high-risk category had significantly higher readmission rates than patients in the baseline-risk and mild-risk categories at 30, 60, 90, and 120 days after discharge. Of the 1,064 elevated-risk alerts that were triaged, 1,049 (98.6 percent) involved the nurse care manager, 804 (75.6 percent) involved the patient, 768 (72.2 percent) involved the health coach, 461 (43.3 percent) involved skilled nursing, and 235 (22.1 percent) involved the outpatient physician in the coordination of care in response to the alert. The predictive nature of the 30-day readmission risk scores is influenced

Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield Risk Management of Adenocarcinoma: The Future of Imaging?

PubMed

Foley, Finbar; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Boland, Jennifer M; Karwoski, Ronald A; Maldonado, Fabien; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

2016-01-01

Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-Assessment Score and Patient Optimization as Cost Predictors for Ventral Hernia Repair.

PubMed

Saleh, Sherif; Plymale, Margaret A; Davenport, Daniel L; Roth, John Scott

2018-04-01

Ventral hernia repair (VHR) is associated with complications that significantly increase healthcare costs. This study explores the associations between hospital costs for VHR and surgical complication risk-assessment scores, need for cardiac or pulmonary evaluation, and smoking or obesity counseling. An IRB-approved retrospective study of patients having undergone open VHR over 3 years was performed. Ventral Hernia Risk Score (VHRS) for surgical site occurrence and surgical site infection, and the Ventral Hernia Working Group grade were calculated for each case. Also recorded were preoperative cardiology or pulmonary evaluations, smoking cessation and weight reduction counseling, and patient goal achievement. Hospital costs were obtained from the cost accounting system for the VHR hospitalization stratified by major clinical cost drivers. Univariate regression analyses were used to compare the predictive power of the risk scores. Multivariable analysis was performed to develop a cost prediction model. The mean cost of index VHR hospitalization was $20,700. Total and operating room costs correlated with increasing CDC wound class, VHRS surgical site infection score, VHRS surgical site occurrence score, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, and Ventral Hernia Working Group (all p < 0.01). The VHRS surgical site infection scores correlated negatively with contribution margin (-280; p < 0.01). Multivariable predictors of total hospital costs for the index hospitalization included wound class, hernia defect size, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists class 3 or 4, use of biologic mesh, and 2+ mesh pieces; explaining 73% of the variance in costs (p < 0.001). Weight optimization significantly reduced direct and operating room costs (p < 0.05). Cardiac evaluation was associated with increased costs. Ventral hernia repair hospital costs are more accurately predicted by CDC wound class than VHR risk scores. A straightforward 6-factor model predicted most cost

Stratifying repellent-treated pine seed.

Treesearch

T.A. Harrington

1960-01-01

Germinative capacity of loblolly, shortleaf, and Virginia pine may be seriously reduced if the seed is repellent-coated and then stratified when fresh. In contrast, cold storage for a few months may largely forestall damage from later repellent treatment and stratification.

Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma

PubMed Central

Pinto, Navin R.; Applebaum, Mark A.; Volchenboum, Samuel L.; Matthay, Katherine K.; London, Wendy B.; Ambros, Peter F.; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R.; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D.J.

2015-01-01

Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations. PMID:26304901

Advances in Risk Classification and Treatment Strategies for Neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Pinto, Navin R; Applebaum, Mark A; Volchenboum, Samuel L; Matthay, Katherine K; London, Wendy B; Ambros, Peter F; Nakagawara, Akira; Berthold, Frank; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Park, Julie R; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Pearson, Andrew D J; Cohn, Susan L

2015-09-20

Risk-based treatment approaches for neuroblastoma have been ongoing for decades. However, the criteria used to define risk in various institutional and cooperative groups were disparate, limiting the ability to compare clinical trial results. To mitigate this problem and enhance collaborative research, homogenous pretreatment patient cohorts have been defined by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group classification system. During the past 30 years, increasingly intensive, multimodality approaches have been developed to treat patients who are classified as high risk, whereas patients with low- or intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have received reduced therapy. This treatment approach has resulted in improved outcome, although survival for high-risk patients remains poor, emphasizing the need for more effective treatments. Increased knowledge regarding the biology and genetic basis of neuroblastoma has led to the discovery of druggable targets and promising, new therapeutic approaches. Collaborative efforts of institutions and international cooperative groups have led to advances in our understanding of neuroblastoma biology, refinements in risk classification, and stratified treatment strategies, resulting in improved outcome. International collaboration will be even more critical when evaluating therapies designed to treat small cohorts of patients with rare actionable mutations. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Understanding exchanges across turbulent/stratified zones interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bars, M.; Ribeiro, A.; Le Gal, P.; Aurnou, J. M.

2013-12-01

In many geophysical and astrophysical situations, a turbulent fluid layer is separated from a stably stratified one by a relatively sharp but deformable interface. Examples include the convective and radiative zones in stars, the atmospheric convective layer and overlying stratosphere, the Earth's outer core... While motions in the stratified layer are often neglected, it actually supports oscillatory motions called gravito-inertial waves (GIW) excited by Reynolds stresses, entropy fluctuations and interface deformations associated with the turbulence. Besides their direct observation as for instance in asteroseismology, GIW transport energy, carry momentum, break, mix... and are thus essential for accurate models of global climate and solar or core dynamics. Global integrated models including length scales and time scales spanning many orders of magnitude are required to fully address motions in turbulent and stratified zones and to understand the details of the highly non-linear couplings between rotation, meridional circulation, turbulence and waves: this is clearly very challenging from both analytical and numerical points of view. Here, we present results from two complementary laboratory experiments using water as a working fluid and salt or temperature to control the buoyancy effects, allowing to address the whole range of relevant physical issues in simplified models. In the first set-up, we take benefit from the unusual property of water that its density has a maximum value near 4oC to study its convective and oscillatory motions in a tank with a bottom boundary at about 0oC and a hotter upper surface. High precision local measurements of temperature fluctuations are performed simultaneously in the convective and stratified zones to produce the corresponding power density spectrum and probability density function. In the second set-up, a turbulent jet generated by injection of water impinges upon the interface between a uniform density layer and a

Levels of MMP-9 in patients with intracranial aneurysm: Relation with risk factors, size and clinical presentation.

PubMed

Rojas, Hugo Alberto; Fernandes, Karla Simone da Silva; Ottone, Mariana Rodrigues; Magalhães, Kênia Cristina S Fonseca de; Albuquerque, Lucas Alverne Freitas de; Pereira, Julio Leonardo Barbosa; Vieira-Júnior, Gerival; Sousa-Filho, José Lopes; Costa, Bruno Silva; Sandrim, Valéria Cristina; Dellaretti, Marcos; Simões, Renata Toscano

2018-05-01

Intracranial aneurysms are arterial anomalies affecting 2% to 3% of the general population in the world and these ruptures are associated with a high mortality. Some risk factors, such as age, gender, smoking, alcohol, hypertension and familial history are associated with the number of aneurysms and their size. In addition, inflammatory processes within the blood vessels of the brain can activate matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9), which degrades various components of the extracellular matrix, such as elastin. Thereby, this work has aimed at evaluating the relationship between plasma MMP-9 levels and the risk factors that are associated with intracranial aneurysm, as well as investigating the aneurysm statuses (ruptured and unruptured) and comparing them with the control volunteers. Between August 2014 to June 2016, blood samples were collected from 282 patients (204 ruptured and 78 unruptured saccular intracranial aneurysms) and 286 control volunteers. The MMP-9 plasma levels were measured by ELISA. Statistical analyzes were performed with SPSS software when using parametric or nonparametric tests, after the normality tests. Higher levels of MMP-9 were found in the aneurysm groups as a whole and when they were stratified by rupture status, then compared with the control group (p < 0.0001). When stratifying them by diameter, those smaller than 7 mm presented high levels of MMP-9 (p < 0.0001), especially in the ruptured ones. As for risk factors, hypertension and smoking were the most important. However, hypertension was mostly associated with the ruptured aneurysms (p < 0.0001). High levels of MMP-9 were found in smaller ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms (<7 mm) with strongest statistical associations than other sizes, especially when associated with smoking and hypertension. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel protein-based prognostic signature improves risk stratification to guide clinical management in early lung adenocarcinoma patients.

PubMed

Martínez-Terroba, Elena; Behrens, Carmen; de Miguel, Fernando J; Agorreta, Jackeline; Monsó, Eduard; Millares, Laura; Sainz, Cristina; Mesa-Guzman, Miguel; Pérez-Gracia, Jose Luis; Lozano, María Dolores; Zulueta, Javier J; Pio, Ruben; Wistuba, Ignacio I; Montuenga, Luis M; Pajares, María J

2018-05-13

Each of the pathological stages (I-IIIa) in which surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer patients are classified conceals hidden biological heterogeneity, manifested in heterogeneous outcomes within each stage. Thus, the finding of robust and precise molecular classifiers to assess individual patient risk is an unmet medical need. Here we identified and validated the clinical utility of a new prognostic signature based on three proteins (BRCA1, QKI and SLC2A1) to stratify early lung adenocarcinoma patients according to their risk of recurrence or death. Patients were staged following the new International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC) staging criteria (8 th edition, 2018). A test cohort (n=239) was used to assess the value of this new prognostic index (PI) based on the three proteins. The prognostic signature was developed by Cox regression following stringent statistical criteria (TRIPOD: Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis). The model resulted in a highly significant predictor of five-year outcome for disease-free survival (P<0.001) and overall survival (P<0.001). The prognostic ability of the model was externally validated in an independent multi-institutional cohort of patients (n=114, P=0.021). We also demonstrated that this molecular classifier adds relevant information to the gold standard TNM-based pathological staging with a highly significant improvement of likelihood ratio. We subsequently developed a combined prognostic index (CPI) including both the molecular and the pathological data which improved the risk stratification in both cohorts (P≤0.001). Moreover, the signature may help to select stage I-IIA patients who might benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. In summary, this protein-based signature accurately identifies those patients with high risk of recurrence and death, and adds further prognostic information to the TNM-based clinical staging, even applying the

A new stratified risk assessment tool for whiplash injuries developed from a prospective observational study

PubMed Central

Kasch, Helge; Kongsted, Alice; Qerama, Erisela; Bach, Flemming W; Bendix, Tom; Jensen, Troels Staehelin

2013-01-01

Objectives An initial stratification of acute whiplash patients into seven risk-strata in relation to 1-year work disability as primary outcome is presented. Design The design was an observational prospective study of risk factors embedded in a randomised controlled study. Setting Acute whiplash patients from units, general practitioners in four Danish counties were referred to two research centres. Participants During a 2-year inclusion period, acute consecutive whiplash-injured (age 18–70 years, rear-end or frontal-end car accident and WAD (whiplash-associated disorders) grades I–III, symptoms within 72 h, examination prior to 10 days postinjury, capable of written/spoken Danish, without other injuries/fractures, pre-existing significant somatic/psychiatric disorder, drug/alcohol abuse and previous significant pain/headache). 688 (438 women and 250 men) participants were interviewed and examined by a study nurse after 5 days; 605 were completed after 1 year. A risk score which included items of initial neck pain/headache intensity, a number of non-painful complaints and active neck mobility was applied. The primary outcome parameter was 1-year work disability. Results The risk score and number of sick-listing days were related (Kruskal-Wallis, p<0.0001). In stratum 1, less than 4%, but in stratum 7, 68% were work-disabled after 1 year. Early work assessment (p<0.0001), impact of the event questionnaire (p<0.0006), psychophysical pain measures being McGill pain questionnaire parameters (p<0.0001), pressure pain algometry (p<0.0001) and palpation (p<0.0001) showed a significant relationship with risk stratification. Analysis Findings confirm previous studies reporting intense neck pain/headache and distress as predictors for work disability after whiplash. Neck-mobility was a strong predictor in this study; however, it was a more inconsistent predictor in other studies. Conclusions Application of the risk assessment score and use of the risk strata

Reduction of MRI-targeted biopsies in men with low-risk prostate cancer on active surveillance by stratifying to PI-RADS and PSA-density, with different thresholds for significant disease.

PubMed

Schoots, Ivo G; Osses, Daniel F; Drost, Frank-Jan H; Verbeek, Jan F M; Remmers, Sebastiaan; van Leenders, Geert J L H; Bangma, Chris H; Roobol, Monique J

2018-02-01

The fear of undergrading prostate cancer (PCa) in men on active surveillance (AS) have led to strict criteria for monitoring, which have resulted in good long-term cancer-specific survival, proving the safety of this approach. Reducing undergrading, MRI-targeted biopsies are increasingly used in men with low-risk disease despite their undefined role yet. The objective of this study is to investigate the rate of upgrading using MRI-targeted biopsies in men with low-risk disease on AS, stratified on the basis of PI-RADS and PSA-density, with the aim to reduce potential unnecessary repeat biopsy procedures. A total of 331 men were prospectively enrolled following the MRI-PRIAS protocol. MR imaging was according to Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADSv2) guidelines. Suspicious MRI lesions (PI-RADS 3-5) were additionally targeted by MRI-TRUS fusion biopsies. Outcome measure was upgrading to Gleason score (GS) ≥3+4 with MRI-targeted biopsies, stratified for PI-RADS and PSA-density. In total, 25% (82/331) of men on AS showed upgrading from GS 3+3. Only 3% (11/331) was upgraded to GS ≥8. In 60% (198/331) a suspicious MRI lesion was identified, but in only 41% (82/198) of men upgrading was confirmed. PI-RADS 3, 4 and 5 categorized index lesions, showed upgrading in 30%, 34% and 66% of men, respectively. Stratification to PI-RADS 4-5, instead of PI-RADS 3-5, would have missed a small number of high volume Gleason 4 PCa in PI-RADS 3 category. However, further stratification into PI-RADS 3 lesions and PSA-density <0.15 ng/mL 2 could result in a safe targeted biopsy reduction of 36% in this category, without missing any upgrades. Stratification with the combination of PI-RADS and PSA-density may reduce unnecessary additional MRI biopsy testing. Overall, the high rate of detected upgrading in men on AS may result in an unintended tightening of continuing in AS. Since patients, included under current AS criteria showed extremely favorable outcome, there might

Heterotrophic bacterioplankton control on organic and inorganic carbon cycle in stratified and non-stratified lakes of NW Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirokova, Liudmila; Vorobjeva, Taissia; Zabelina, Svetlana; Moreva, Olga; Klimov, Sergey; Shorina, Natalja; Chupakov, Artem; Pokrovsky, Oleg; Audry, Stephan; Viers, Jerome

2010-05-01

Lakes of boreal zone regulate the fate of dissolved carbon, nutrients and trace metals during their transport from the watershed to the ocean. Study of primary production - mineralization processes in the context of carbon biogeochemical cycle allows determination of the rate and mechanisms of phytoplankton biomass production and its degradation via aquatic heterotrophic bacteria. In particular, comparative study of vertical distribution of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) in stratified and non-stratified lakes allows establishing the link between biological and chemical aspects of the carbon cycle which, in turns, determines an environmental stability and recovering potential of the entire ecosystem. In order to better understand the biogeochemical mechanisms that control dissolved organic and inorganic carbon migration in surface boreal waters, we studied in 2007-2009 two strongly stratified lakes (15-20 m deep) and two shallow lakes (2-4 m deep) in the Arkhangelsk region (NW Russia, White Sea basin). We conducted natural experiments of the lake water incubation for measurements of the intensity of production/mineralization processes and we determined vertical concentration of DOC during four basic hydrological seasons (winter and summer stratification, and spring and autumn lake overturn). Our seasonal studies of production/mineralization processes demonstrated high intensity of organic matter formation during summer period and significant retard of these processes during winter stagnation. During spring period, there is a strong increase of bacterial destruction of the allochtonous organic matter that is being delivered to the lake via terrigenous input. During autumn overturn, there is a decrease of the activity of phytoplankton, and the degradation of dead biomass by active bacterial community. Organic matter destruction processes are the most active in Svyatoe lake, whereas in the Beloe lake, the rate of organic matter production is significantly higher than

Hyperlipidemia and statins use for the risk of new-onset anxiety/depression in patients with head and neck cancer: A population-based study

PubMed Central

Huang, Chung-I; Lin, Li-Ching; Tien, Hung-Cheng; Que, Jenny; Ting, Wei Chen; Chen, Po-Chun; Wu, Hsin-Min; Ho, Chung-Han; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Wang, Ren-Hong; Yang, Ching-Chieh

2017-01-01

Objective Anxiety/depression is common among patients with head and neck cancer (HNC), and can negatively affect treatment compliance and outcome. The aim of this study was to assess the association between hyperlipidemia and the risk of new-onset anxiety/depression after the diagnosis of HNC and the influence of administering statins. Methods A matched longitudinal cohort study of 1632 subjects (408 HNC patients with preexisting hyperlipidemia and 1224 age- and sex-matched HNC patients without hyperlipidemia) was included and analyzed by using data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database from January 1996 to December 2012. The incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) for the development of new-onset anxiety/depression were examined between the two groups. Cox proportional hazard regression was applied to estimate the relative risks of anxiety/depressive disorders adjusted for potential confounding factors. To estimate the risks of anxiety/depression in different sub-groups, a stratified analysis was also used. Results HNC patients with preexisting hyperlipidemia had a higher risk for comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease (P <0.001). The incidence rate of anxiety/depression in the HNC patients with preexisting hyperlipidemia was also significantly higher than that among patients without hyperlipidemia (10.78% vs 7.27%, respectively; P = 0.03). A Cox regression model revealed that preexisting hyperlipidemia was an independent risk factor for anxiety/depression (aHR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.30–2.94). Statins use was protective against anxiety/depression among HNC patients with hyperlipidemia (aHR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.46–1.57), especially for individuals older than 65 years and for females. Conclusions Preexisting hyperlipidemia was associated with increased risk of new-onset anxiety/depression in the HNC patients. Statins use for HNC patients with hyperlipidemia could decrease the risk of anxiety/depression, especially

Numerical analysis of internal waves in stratified wake flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraunie, Philppe

2014-05-01

In laboratory investigations, increased attention has been given to internal waves generated by stationary placed oscillating sources and moving bodies in stratified fluids [1]. The main attention was paid to study flows past bodies of perfect shapes like sphere [2], cylinder [3] of thin strip [3] which are the best theoretical (analytical or numerical) studies. Due to simplicity of geometry, flow around a strip has a potential to investigate separately effects of a drag and lift forces on the body by changing the slope of the horizontally moving strip which can be placed vertically [1], horizontally [2], or be tilted under some angle to the direction of towing velocity [5]. Numeric modeling of a flow past vertical strip uniformly towing with permanent velocity in horizontal direction in a linearly stratified talk which was based on a finite differences solver adapted to the low Reynolds Navier-Stokes equation with transport equation for salinity (LES simulation [6] and RANS [7]) has demonstrated reasonable agreement with data of Schlieren visualization, density marker and probe measurements of internal wave fields. The chosen test cases allowed demonstrating the ability of selected numerical methods to represent stably stratified flows over horizontal strip [4] and hill type 2D obstacles [1, 3] with generation of internal waves. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research work was supported by the Region Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur - Modtercom project. The work was also supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 12-01-00128). REFERENCES [1] Chashechkin Yu.D., Mitkin V.V. Experimental study of a fine structure of 2D wakes and mixing past an obstacle in a continuously stratified fluid // Dynamics of Atmosphere and Oceans. 2001. V. 34. P. 165-187. [2] Chashechkin, Yu. D. Hydrodynamics of a sphere in a stratified fluid // Fluid Dyn. 1989. V.24(1) P. 1-7. [3] Mitkin V. V., Chashechkin Yu. D. Transformation of hanging discontinuities into vortex systems in a

Stratified charge rotary engine for general aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mount, R. E.; Parente, A. M.; Hady, W. F.

1986-01-01

A development history, a current development status assessment, and a design feature and performance capabilities account are given for stratified-charge rotary engines applicable to aircraft propulsion. Such engines are capable of operating on Jet-A fuel with substantial cost savings, improved altitude capability, and lower fuel consumption by comparison with gas turbine powerplants. Attention is given to the current development program of a 400-hp engine scheduled for initial operations in early 1990. Stratified charge rotary engines are also applicable to ground power units, airborne APUs, shipboard generators, and vehicular engines.

Janus Kinase 2 Polymorphisms Are Associated with Risk in Patients with Gastric Cancer in a Chinese Population

PubMed Central

Guo, Renhua; Zhang, Zhihong; Xu, Hao; Yang, Chao; Zhu, Yi

2013-01-01

Aim To evaluate the impact of the Janus kinase 2 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on gastric cancer risk. Methods In this hospital-based, case–control study, the genotypes were identified by polymerase chain reaction–restriction fragment length polymorphism protocols in 661 individuals (359 gastric cancer patients and 302 age and sex matched cancer-free controls). Results Both the frequency of A allele in rs2230724 and G allele in rs1887427 were more frequent in patients with gastric cancer (P = 0.013 and 0.001, respectively). Compared with the common genotype, subjects with the (AG+AA) genotypes of rs2230724 and the (AG+GG) genotypes of rs1887427 had a 59% and 98% increased risk of developing gastric cancer, respectively (P = 0.010, adjusted OR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.12–2.27; P<0.001, adjusted OR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.39–2.81, respectively). Further stratified analysis showed that the association between the risk of gastric cancer and the rare genotypes of rs2230724 were more profound in the subgroups of elder individuals (>56 years), males, nonsmokers and urban subjects, while the association between the risk and the rare genotypes of rs1887427 persisted in subgroups of younger individuals (≤56 years), males, nonsmokers and both of rural and urban subjects. Conclusion The JAK2 gene rs2230724 and rs1887427 polymorphisms are associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer in a Chinese Han population. PMID:23717640

Accuracy of point-of-care serum creatinine devices for detecting patients at risk of contrast-induced nephropathy: a critical overview.

PubMed

Martínez Lomakin, Felipe; Tobar, Catalina

2014-12-01

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a common event in hospitals, with reported incidences ranging from 1 to 30%. Patients with underlying kidney disease have an increased risk of developing CIN. Point-of-care (POC) creatinine devices are handheld devices capable of providing quantitative data on a patient's kidney function that could be useful in stratifying preventive measures. This overview aims to synthesize the current evidence on diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of POC creatinine devices in detecting patients at risk of CIN. Five databases were searched for diagnostic accuracy studies or clinical trials that evaluated the usefulness of POC devices in detecting patients at risk of CIN. Selected articles were critically appraised to assess their individual risk of bias by the use of standard criteria; 13 studies were found that addressed the diagnostic accuracy or clinical utility of POC creatinine devices. Most studies incurred a moderate to high risk of bias. Overall concordance between POC devices and reference standards (clinical laboratory procedures) was found to be moderate, with 95% limits of agreement often lying between -35.4 and +35.4 µmol/L (-0.4 and +0.4 mg/dL). Concordance was shown to decrease with worsening kidney function. Data on the clinical utility of these devices were limited, but a significant reduction in time to diagnosis was reported in two studies. Overall, POC creatinine devices showed a moderate concordance with standard clinical laboratory creatinine measurements. Several biases could have induced optimism in these estimations. Results obtained from these devices may be unreliable in cases of severe kidney failure. Randomized trials are needed to address the clinical utility of these devices.

Association of prehospitalization aspirin therapy and acute lung injury: results of a multicenter international observational study of at-risk patients.

PubMed

Kor, Daryl J; Erlich, Jason; Gong, Michelle N; Malinchoc, Michael; Carter, Rickey E; Gajic, Ognjen; Talmor, Daniel S

2011-11-01

To evaluate the association between prehospitalization aspirin therapy and incident acute lung injury in a heterogeneous cohort of at-risk medical patients. This is a secondary analysis of a prospective multicenter international cohort investigation. Multicenter observational study including 20 US hospitals and two hospitals in Turkey. Consecutive, adult, nonsurgical patients admitted to the hospital with at least one major risk factor for acute lung injury. None. Baseline characteristics and acute lung injury risk factors/modifiers were identified. The presence of aspirin therapy and the propensity to receive this therapy were determined. The primary outcome was acute lung injury during hospitalization. Secondary outcomes included intensive care unit and hospital mortality and intensive care unit and hospital length of stay. Twenty-two hospitals enrolled 3855 at-risk patients over a 6-month period. Nine hundred seventy-six (25.3%) were receiving aspirin at the time of hospitalization. Two hundred forty (6.2%) patients developed acute lung injury. Univariate analysis noted a reduced incidence of acute lung injury in those receiving aspirin therapy (odds ratio [OR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46-0.90; p = .010). This association was attenuated in a stratified analysis based on deciles of aspirin propensity scores (Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel pooled OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.48-1.03; p = .072). After adjusting for the propensity to receive aspirin therapy, no statistically significant associations between prehospitalization aspirin therapy and acute lung injury were identified; however, a prospective clinical trial to further evaluate this association appears warranted.

Carotid revascularization: risks and benefits

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Marlene; Chandra, Ankur

2014-01-01

Despite a decline during the recent decades in stroke-related death, the incidence of stroke has remained unchanged or slightly increased, and extracranial carotid artery stenosis is implicated in 20%–30% of all strokes. Medical therapy and risk factor modification are first-line therapies for all patients with carotid occlusive disease. Evidence for the treatment of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis greater than 70% with either carotid artery stenting (CAS) or carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is compelling, and several trials have demonstrated a benefit to carotid revascularization in the symptomatic patient population. Asymptomatic carotid stenosis is more controversial, with the largest trials only demonstrating a 1% per year risk stroke reduction with CEA. Although there are sufficient data to advocate for aggressive medical therapy as the primary mode of treatment for asymptomatic carotid stenosis, there are also data to suggest that certain patient populations will benefit from a stroke risk reduction with carotid revascularization. In the United States, consensus and practice guidelines dictate that CEA is reasonable in patients with high-grade asymptomatic stenosis, a reasonable life expectancy, and perioperative risk of less than 3%. Regarding CAS versus CEA, the best-available evidence demonstrates no difference between the two procedures in early perioperative stroke, myocardial infarction, or death, and no difference in 4-year ipsilateral stroke risk. However, because of the higher perioperative risks of stroke in patients undergoing CAS, particularly in symptomatic, female, or elderly patients, it is difficult to recommend CAS over CEA except in populations with prohibitive cardiac risk, previous carotid surgery, or prior neck radiation. Current treatment paradigms are based on identifying the magnitude of perioperative risk in patient subsets and on using predictive factors to stratify patients with high-risk asymptomatic stenosis. PMID

An evaluation of flow-stratified sampling for estimating suspended sediment loads

Treesearch

Robert B. Thomas; Jack Lewis

1995-01-01

Abstract - Flow-stratified sampling is a new method for sampling water quality constituents such as suspended sediment to estimate loads. As with selection-at-list-time (SALT) and time-stratified sampling, flow-stratified sampling is a statistical method requiring random sampling, and yielding unbiased estimates of load and variance. It can be used to estimate event...

Optimal threshold estimator of a prognostic marker by maximizing a time-dependent expected utility function for a patient-centered stratified medicine.

PubMed

Dantan, Etienne; Foucher, Yohann; Lorent, Marine; Giral, Magali; Tessier, Philippe

2018-06-01

Defining thresholds of prognostic markers is essential for stratified medicine. Such thresholds are mostly estimated from purely statistical measures regardless of patient preferences potentially leading to unacceptable medical decisions. Quality-Adjusted Life-Years are a widely used preferences-based measure of health outcomes. We develop a time-dependent Quality-Adjusted Life-Years-based expected utility function for censored data that should be maximized to estimate an optimal threshold. We performed a simulation study to compare estimated thresholds when using the proposed expected utility approach and purely statistical estimators. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology which was implemented in the R package ROCt ( www.divat.fr ). First, by reanalysing data of a randomized clinical trial comparing the efficacy of prednisone vs. placebo in patients with chronic liver cirrhosis, we demonstrate the utility of treating patients with a prothrombin level higher than 89%. Second, we reanalyze the data of an observational cohort of kidney transplant recipients: we conclude to the uselessness of the Kidney Transplant Failure Score to adapt the frequency of clinical visits. Applying such a patient-centered methodology may improve future transfer of novel prognostic scoring systems or markers in clinical practice.

Utility of the exercise electrocardiogram testing in sudden cardiac death risk stratification.

PubMed

Refaat, Marwan M; Hotait, Mostafa; Tseng, Zian H

2014-07-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a major public health problem. Current established criteria identifying those at risk of sudden arrhythmic death, and likely to benefit from implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs), are neither sensitive nor specific. Exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) testing was traditionally used for information concerning patients' symptoms, exercise capacity, cardiovascular function, myocardial ischemia detection, and hemodynamic responses during activity in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. We conducted a systematic review of MEDLINE on the utility of exercise ECG testing in SCD risk stratification. Exercise testing can unmask suspected primary electrical diseases in certain patients (catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia or concealed long QT syndrome) and can be effectively utilized to risk stratify patients at an increased (such as early repolarization syndrome and Brugada syndrome) or decreased risk of SCD, such as the loss of preexcitation on exercise testing in asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Exercise ECG testing helps in SCD risk stratification in patients with and without arrhythmogenic hereditary syndromes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A novel nomogram accurately quantifies the risk of mortality in elderly patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

PubMed

Kiran, Ravi P; Attaluri, Vikram; Hammel, Jeff; Church, James

2013-05-01

The ability to accurately predict postoperative mortality is expected to improve preoperative decisions for elderly patients considered for colorectal surgery. Patients undergoing colorectal surgery were identified from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2007) and stratified as elderly (>70 years) and nonelderly (<70 years). Univariate analysis of preoperative risk factors and 30-day mortality and morbidity were analyzed on 70% of the population. A nomogram for mortality was created and tested on the remaining 30%. Of 30,900 colorectal cases, 10,750 were elderly (>70 years). Mortality increased steadily with age (0.5% every 5 years) and at a faster rate (1.2% every 5 years) after 70 years, which defined "elderly" in this study. Elderly (mean age: 78.4 years) and nonelderly patients (52.8 years) had mortality of 7.6% versus 2.0% and a morbidity of 32.8% versus 25.7%, respectively. Elderly patients had greater preoperative comorbidities including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (10.5% vs 3.8%), diabetes (18.7% vs 11.1%), and renal insufficiency (1.7% vs 1.3%). A multivariate model for 30-day mortality and nomogram were created. Increasing age was associated with mortality [age >70 years: odds ratio (OR) = 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-2.4); >85 years: OR = 4.3 (95% CI: 3.3-5.5)]. The nomogram accurately predicted mortality, including very high-risk (>50% mortality) with a concordant index for this model of 0.89. Colorectal surgery in elderly patients is associated with significantly higher mortality. This novel nomogram that predicts postoperative mortality may facilitate preoperative treatment decisions.

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator Does Not Accurately Predict Risk of 30-Day Complications Among Patients Undergoing Microvascular Head and Neck Reconstruction.

PubMed

Arce, Kevin; Moore, Eric J; Lohse, Christine M; Reiland, Matthew D; Yetzer, Jacob G; Ettinger, Kyle S

2016-09-01

The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC) is a novel universal risk calculator designed to aid in risk stratification of patients undergoing various types of major surgery. The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of the ACS NSQIP SRC in predicting postoperative complications in patients undergoing microvascular head and neck reconstruction. A retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing head and neck microvascular reconstruction with fibular free flaps at a single institution was completed. The NSQIP SRC was used to compute complication risk estimates and length of stay (LOS) estimates for all patients under study. Associations between complication risk estimates generated by the SRC and actual rates of observed complications were evaluated using logistic regression models. Logistic regression models also were used to evaluate the SRC estimates for LOS duration compared with the actual observed LOS after surgery. Of 153 patients under study, 46 (30%) developed a postoperative complication corresponding to those defined by NSQIP SRC. Thirty-eight patients (25%) developed a postoperative complication categorized as severe in the parameters of the NSQIP SRC. None of the SRC complication estimates showed a statistically relevant association with the corresponding observed rates of complications. The mean LOS predicted by the SRC was 8.0 days (median, 7.5 days; interquartile range [IQR], 6.5 to 9; range, 5.0 to 18.5 days). The mean observed LOS for the study group was 9.6 days (median, 7.0 days; IQR, 6 to 9; range, 5 to 67 days). Lin's (Biometrics 45:255, 1989) concordance correlation coefficient to measure agreement between observed and predicted LOS was 0.10, indicating only slight agreement between the 2 values. The ACS NSQIP SRC is not a useful risk-stratifying metric for patients undergoing major head and neck reconstruction with microvascular fibular free

Assessing Bleeding Risk in Patients Taking Anticoagulants

PubMed Central

Shoeb, Marwa; Fang, Margaret C.

2013-01-01

Anticoagulant medications are commonly used for the prevention and treatment of thromboembolism. Although highly effective, they are also associated with significant bleeding risks. Numerous individual clinical factors have been linked to an increased risk of hemorrhage, including older age, anemia, and renal disease. To help quantify hemorrhage risk for individual patients, a number of clinical risk prediction tools have been developed. These risk prediction tools differ in how they were derived and how they identify and weight individual risk factors. At present, their ability to effective predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhage remains modest. Use of risk prediction tools to estimate bleeding in clinical practice is most influential when applied to patients at the lower spectrum of thromboembolic risk, when the risk of hemorrhage will more strongly affect clinical decisions about anticoagulation. Using risk tools may also help counsel and inform patients about their potential risk for hemorrhage while on anticoagulants, and can identify patients who might benefit from more careful management of anticoagulation. PMID:23479259

Identifying prognostic intratumor heterogeneity using pre- and post-radiotherapy 18F-FDG PET images for pancreatic cancer patients.

PubMed

Yue, Yong; Osipov, Arsen; Fraass, Benedick; Sandler, Howard; Zhang, Xiao; Nissen, Nicholas; Hendifar, Andrew; Tuli, Richard

2017-02-01

To stratify risks of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PA) patients using pre- and post-radiotherapy (RT) PET/CT images, and to assess the prognostic value of texture variations in predicting therapy response of patients. Twenty-six PA patients treated with RT from 2011-2013 with pre- and post-treatment 18F-FDG-PET/CT scans were identified. Tumor locoregional texture was calculated using 3D kernel-based approach, and texture variations were identified by fitting discrepancies of texture maps of pre- and post-treatment images. A total of 48 texture and clinical variables were identified and evaluated for association with overall survival (OS). The prognostic heterogeneity features were selected using lasso/elastic net regression, and further were evaluated by multivariate Cox analysis. Median age was 69 y (range, 46-86 y). The texture map and temporal variations between pre- and post-treatment were well characterized by histograms and statistical fitting. The lasso analysis identified seven predictors (age, node stage, post-RT SUVmax, variations of homogeneity, variance, sum mean, and cluster tendency). The multivariate Cox analysis identified five significant variables: age, node stage, variations of homogeneity, variance, and cluster tendency (with P=0.020, 0.040, 0.065, 0.078, and 0.081, respectively). The patients were stratified into two groups based on the risk score of multivariate analysis with log-rank P=0.001: a low risk group (n=11) with a longer mean OS (29.3 months) and higher texture variation (>30%), and a high risk group (n=15) with a shorter mean OS (17.7 months) and lower texture variation (<15%). Locoregional metabolic texture response provides a feasible approach for evaluating and predicting clinical outcomes following treatment of PA with RT. The proposed method can be used to stratify patient risk and help select appropriate treatment strategies for individual patients toward implementing response-driven adaptive RT.

Global Risk Score and Clinical SYNTAX Score as Predictors of Clinical Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Unprotected Left Main Percutaneous Catheter Intervention

PubMed Central

Cuenza, Lucky; Collado, Marianne P.; Ho Khe Sui, James

2017-01-01

Background Risk stratification is an important component of left main percutaneous catheter intervention (PCI) which has emerged as a feasible alternative to cardiac surgery. We sought to compare the clinical SYNTAX score and the global risk score in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing unprotected left main PCI in our institution. Methods Clinical, angiographic and procedural characteristics of 92 patients who underwent unprotected left main PCI (mean age 62 ± 12.1 years) were analyzed. Patients were risk stratified into tertiles of high, intermediate and low risk using the global risk score (GRS) and the clinical SYNTAX score (CSS) and were prospectively followed up at 1 year for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), defined as a composite of all cause mortality, cardiac mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary artery bypass, and target vessel revascularization. Results There were 26 (28.2%) who experienced MACEs, of which 10 (10.8%) patients died. Multivariable hazards analysis showed that the GRS (hazard ratio (HR) = 5.5, P = 0.001) and CSS (HR = 4.3, P = 0.001) were both independent predictors of MACEs. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed higher incidence of MACEs with the intermediate and higher risk categories compared to those classified as low risk. Receiver-operator characteristic analysis showed that the GRS has better discriminatory ability than the CSS in the prediction of 1 year MACEs (0.891 vs. 0.743, P = 0.007). Conclusion The GRS and CSS are predictive of outcomes after left main PCI. The GRS appears to have superior predictive and prognostic utility compared to the CSS. This study emphasizes the importance of combining both anatomic and clinical variables for optimum prognostication and management decisions in left main PCI. PMID:29317974

A score to predict and stratify risk of tuberculosis in adult contacts of tuberculosis index cases: a prospective derivation and external validation cohort study.

PubMed

Saunders, Matthew J; Wingfield, Tom; Tovar, Marco A; Baldwin, Matthew R; Datta, Sumona; Zevallos, Karine; Montoya, Rosario; Valencia, Teresa R; Friedland, Jon S; Moulton, Larry H; Gilman, Robert H; Evans, Carlton A

2017-11-01

Contacts of tuberculosis index cases are at increased risk of developing tuberculosis. Screening, preventive therapy, and surveillance for tuberculosis are underused interventions in contacts, particularly adults. We developed a score to predict risk of tuberculosis in adult contacts of tuberculosis index cases. In 2002-06, we recruited contacts aged 15 years or older of index cases with pulmonary tuberculosis who lived in desert shanty towns in Ventanilla, Peru. We followed up contacts for tuberculosis until February, 2016. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to identify index case, contact, and household risk factors for tuberculosis from which to derive a score and classify contacts as low, medium, or high risk. We validated the score in an urban community recruited in Callao, Peru, in 2014-15. In the derivation cohort, we identified 2017 contacts of 715 index cases, and median follow-up was 10·7 years (IQR 9·5-11·8). 178 (9%) of 2017 contacts developed tuberculosis during 19 147 person-years of follow-up (incidence 0·93 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 0·80-1·08). Risk factors for tuberculosis were body-mass index, previous tuberculosis, age, sustained exposure to the index case, the index case being in a male patient, lower community household socioeconomic position, indoor air pollution, previous tuberculosis among household members, and living in a household with a low number of windows per room. The 10-year risks of tuberculosis in the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups were, respectively, 2·8% (95% CI 1·7-4·4), 6·2% (4·8-8·1), and 20·6% (17·3-24·4). The 535 (27%) contacts classified as high risk accounted for 60% of the tuberculosis identified during follow-up. The score predicted tuberculosis independently of tuberculin skin test and index-case drug sensitivity results. In the external validation cohort, 65 (3%) of 1910 contacts developed tuberculosis during 3771 person-years of follow-up (incidence 1·7 per 100 person-years, 95

Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

PubMed

Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

2016-07-27

Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence.

Background oriented schlieren in a density stratified fluid.

PubMed

Verso, Lilly; Liberzon, Alex

2015-10-01

Non-intrusive quantitative fluid density measurement methods are essential in the stratified flow experiments. Digital imaging leads to synthetic schlieren methods in which the variations of the index of refraction are reconstructed computationally. In this study, an extension to one of these methods, called background oriented schlieren, is proposed. The extension enables an accurate reconstruction of the density field in stratified liquid experiments. Typically, the experiments are performed by the light source, background pattern, and the camera positioned on the opposite sides of a transparent vessel. The multimedia imaging through air-glass-water-glass-air leads to an additional aberration that destroys the reconstruction. A two-step calibration and image remapping transform are the key components that correct the images through the stratified media and provide a non-intrusive full-field density measurements of transparent liquids.

Vemurafenib in BRAF-mutant metastatic melanoma patients in real-world clinical practice: prognostic factors associated with clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Schouwenburg, Maartje G; Jochems, Anouk; Leeneman, Brenda; Franken, Margreet G; van den Eertwegh, Alfons J M; Haanen, John B A G; van Zeijl, Michiel C T; Aarts, Maureen J; van Akkooi, Alexander C J; van den Berkmortel, Franchette W P J; Blokx, Willeke A M; de Groot, Jan Willem B; Hospers, Geke A P; Kapiteijn, Ellen; Koornstra, Rutger H; Kruit, Wim H; Louwman, Marieke W J; Piersma, Djura; van Rijn, Rozemarijn S; Suijkerbuijk, Karijn P M; Ten Tije, Albert J; Vreugdenhil, Gerard; Wouters, Michel W J M; van der Hoeven, Jacobus J M

2018-08-01

The aim of this population-based study was to identify the factors associated with clinical outcomes in vemurafenib-treated patients and to evaluate outcomes across subgroups of patients with different risk profiles. Data were retrieved from the Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry. Time to next treatment (TTNT) and overall survival (OS) of all metastatic melanoma patients who received vemurafenib between 2012 and 2015 were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimates. A risk score was developed on the basis of all prognostic factors associated with TTNT and OS derived from multivariable Cox regression analyses. Patients were stratified according to the presence of prognostic risk factors by counting the number of factors, ranging from 0 to 6. A total of 626 patients received vemurafenib with a median follow-up of 35.8 months. The median TTNT and OS were 4.7 months [95% confidence intervals (CI): 4.4-5.1] and 7.3 months (95% CI: 6.6-8.0). The strongest prognostic factors were serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score, number of organ sites involved and brain metastases. Patients with a favourable risk profile (no risk factors) had a median TTNT and OS of 7.1 (95% CI: 5.8-8.5) and 15.4 months (95% CI: 10.0-20.9). The median OS more than halved for patients with greater than or equal to 2 risk factors compared with patients with no risk factors. The clinical outcomes of vemurafenib in metastatic melanoma patients with a favourable risk profile are comparable with the results of the trials. Combining prognostic factors into a risk score could be valuable to stratify patients into favourable and poor-prognosis groups.

Managing Suicide Risk in Patients with Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Kasckow, John; Felmet, Kandi; Zisook, Sidney

2011-01-01

The management of suicide risk in patients with schizophrenia poses many challenges for clinicians. Compared with the general population, these patients have an 8.5-fold greater risk of suicide. This article reviews the literature dealing with the treatment of at-risk patients with schizophrenia. An integrated psychosocial and pharmacological approach to managing this population of patients is recommended. Although there is at least modest evidence suggesting that antipsychotic medications protect against suicidal risk, the evidence appears to be most favourable for second-generation antipsychotics, particularly clozapine, which is the only medication approved by the US FDA for preventing suicide in patients with schizophrenia. In addition, treating depressive symptoms in patients with schizophrenia is an important component of suicide risk reduction. While selective serotonin receptor inhibitors (SSRIs) ameliorate depressive symptoms in patients with schizophrenia, they also appear to attenuate suicidal thoughts. Further research is needed to more effectively personalize the treatment of suicidal thoughts and behaviours and the prevention of suicide in patients with schizophrenia. PMID:21254789

Suicide Attempts in an African Schizophrenia Population: An Assessment of Demographic Risk Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niehaus, D.J.H.; Laurent, C.; Jordaan, E.; Koen, L.; Oosthuizen, P.; Keyter, N.; Muller, J. E.; Mbanga, N. I.; Deleuze, J.-F.; Mallet, J.; Stein, D. J.; Emsley, R.

2004-01-01

This study investigated demographic variables, including affected sibling pair status, as risk factors for suicidal behavior in schizophrenia patients of African (Xhosa) descent. Xhosa subjects with schizophrenia were interviewed with the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies (DIGS) and then stratified into two groups: those with ( n = 90) and…

Can a Modified Bosniak Classification System Risk Stratify Pediatric Cystic Renal Masses?

PubMed

Saltzman, Amanda F; Carrasco, Alonso; Colvin, Alexandra N; Meyers, Mariana L; Cost, Nicholas G

2018-03-20

We characterize and apply the modified Bosniak classification system to a cohort of children with cystic renal lesions and known surgical pathology. We identified all patients at our institution with cystic renal masses who also underwent surgery for these lesions. Patients without available preoperative imaging or pathology were excluded. All radiological imaging was independently reviewed by a pediatric radiologist blinded to pathological findings. Imaging characteristics (size, border, septations, calcifications, solid components, vascularity) were recorded from the most recent preoperative ultrasounds and computerized tomograms. The modified Bosniak classification system was applied to these scans and then correlated with final pathology. A total of 22 patients met study criteria. Median age at surgery was 6.1 years (range 11 months to 16.8 years). Of the patients 12 (54.5%) underwent open nephrectomy, 6 (27.3%) open partial nephrectomy, 2 (9.1%) laparoscopic cyst decortication, 1 (4.5%) open renal biopsy and 1 (4.5%) laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. Final pathology was benign in 9 cases (41%), intermediate in 6 (27%) and malignant in 7 (32%). All malignant lesions were modified Bosniak class 4, all intermediate lesions were modified class 3 or 4 and 8 of 9 benign lesions (89%) were modified class 1 or 2. Cystic renal lesions in children with a modified Bosniak class of 1 or 2 were most often benign, while class 3 or 4 lesions warranted surgical excision since more than 90% of masses harbored intermediate or malignant pathology. The modified Bosniak classification system appears to allow for a reasonable clinical risk stratification of pediatric cystic renal masses. Copyright © 2018 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

History of chronic comorbidity and risk of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia in cancer patients not receiving G-CSF prophylaxis.