Science.gov

Sample records for risk-based decision tool

  1. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  2. Interactive Decision-Support Tool for Risk-Based Radiation Therapy Plan Comparison for Hodgkin Lymphoma

    SciTech Connect

    Brodin, N. Patrik; Maraldo, Maja V.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Vogelius, Ivan R.; Petersen, Peter M.; Bentzen, Søren M.; Specht, Lena

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: To present a novel tool that allows quantitative estimation and visualization of the risk of various relevant normal tissue endpoints to aid in treatment plan comparison and clinical decision making in radiation therapy (RT) planning for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). Methods and Materials: A decision-support tool for risk-based, individualized treatment plan comparison is presented. The tool displays dose–response relationships, derived from published clinical data, for a number of relevant side effects and thereby provides direct visualization of the trade-off between these endpoints. The Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic reports were applied, complemented with newer data where available. A “relevance score” was assigned to each data source, reflecting how relevant the input data are to current RT for HL. Results: The tool is applied to visualize the local steepness of dose–response curves to drive the reoptimization of a volumetric modulated arc therapy treatment plan for an HL patient with head-and-neck involvement. We also use this decision-support tool to visualize and quantitatively evaluate the trade-off between a 3-dimensional conformal RT plan and a volumetric modulated arc therapy plan for a patient with mediastinal HL. Conclusion: This multiple-endpoint decision-support tool provides quantitative risk estimates to supplement the clinical judgment of the radiation oncologist when comparing different RT options.

  3. Risk-based decision support tools: protecting rail-centered transit corridors from cascading effects.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Michael R; Lowrie, Karen; Mayer, Henry; Altiok, Tayfur

    2011-12-01

    We consider the value of decision support tools for passenger rail system managers. First, we call for models that follow events along main rail lines and then into the surrounding environment where they can cascade onto connected light rail, bus, auto, truck, and other transport modes. Second, we suggest that both probabilistic risk assessment (PRA-based) and agent-based models have a role to play at different scales of analysis and for different kinds of risks. Third, we argue that economic impact tools need more systematic evaluation. Fourth, we note that developers of decision support tools face a challenge of balancing their desire for theoretical elegance and the tendency to focus only on high consequence events against decisionmakers' mistrust of complex tools that they and their staff cannot manage and incorporate into their routine operations, as well as the high costs of developing, updating, and applying decision support tools to transport systems undergoing budget cuts and worker and service reductions. PMID:21564145

  4. A risk-based decision-aiding tool for waste disposal

    SciTech Connect

    Weiner, R.F.; Reiser, A.S.; Elcock, C.G.; Nevins, S.

    1997-10-01

    N-CART (the National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program Cost Analysis and Risk Tool) is being developed to aid in low-risk, cost-effective, timely management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and can therefore be used in management of mixed waste. N-CART provides evaluation of multiple alternatives and presents the consequences of proposed waste management activities in a clear and concise format. N-CART`s decision-aiding analyses include comparisons and sensitivity analyses of multiple alternatives and allows the user to perform quick turn-around {open_quotes}what if{close_quotes} studies to investigate various scenarios. Uncertainties in data (such as cost and schedule of various activities) are represented as distributions. N-CART centralizes documentation of the bases of program alternatives and program decisions, thereby supporting responses to stakeholders concerns. The initial N-CART design considers regulatory requirements, costs, and schedules for alternative courses of action. The final design will include risks (public health, occupational, economic, scheduling), economic benefits, and the impacts of secondary waste generation. An optimization tool is being incorporated that allows the user to specify the relative importance of cost, time risks, and other bases for decisions. The N-CART prototype can be used to compare the costs and schedules of disposal alternatives for mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW) and greater-than-Class-C (GTCC) waste, as well as spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and related scrap material.

  5. Promoting justified risk-based decisions in contaminated land management.

    PubMed

    Reinikainen, Jussi; Sorvari, Jaana

    2016-09-01

    Decision making and regulatory policies on contaminated land management (CLM) are commonly governed by risk assessment. Risk assessment, thus, has to comply with legislation, but also provide valid information in terms of actual risks to correctly focus the potentially required measures and allocate the available resources. Hence, reliable risk assessment is a prerequisite for justified and sustainable risk management. This paper gives an introduction to the Finnish risk-based regulatory framework, outlines the challenges within the policies and the practice and provides an overview of the new guidance document to promote risk-based and sustainable CLM. We argue that the current risk assessment approaches in the policy frameworks are not necessarily efficient enough in supporting justified risk-based decisions. One of the main reasons for this is the excessive emphasis put on conservative risk assessments and on generic guideline values without contributing to their appropriate application. This paper presents how some of the challenges in risk-based decision making have been tackled in the Finnish regulatory framework on contaminated land. We believe that our study will also stimulate interest with regard to policy frameworks in other countries. PMID:26767620

  6. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    PubMed

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application. PMID:19187486

  7. Air Sparging Decision Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1996-06-10

    The Air Sparging Decision Tool is a computer decision aid to help environmental managers and field practitioners in evaluating the applicability of air sparging to a wide range of sites and for refining the operation of air sparging systems. The program provides tools for the practitioner to develop the conceptual design for an air sparging system suitable for the identified site. The Tool provides a model of the decision making process, not a detailed designmore » of air sparging systems. The Tool will quickly and cost effectively assist the practitioner in screening for applicability of the technology at a proposed site.« less

  8. Holistic risk-based environmental decision making: a Native perspective.

    PubMed Central

    Arquette, Mary; Cole, Maxine; Cook, Katsi; LaFrance, Brenda; Peters, Margaret; Ransom, James; Sargent, Elvera; Smoke, Vivian; Stairs, Arlene

    2002-01-01

    Native American Nations have become increasingly concerned about the impacts of toxic substances. Although risk assessment and risk management processes have been used by government agencies to help estimate and manage risks associated with exposure to toxicants, these tools have many inadequacies and as a result have not served Native people well. In addition, resources have not always been adequate to address the concerns of Native Nations, and involvement of Native decision makers on a government-to-government basis in discussions regarding risk has only recently become common. Finally, because the definitions of health used by Native people are strikingly different from that of risk assessors, there is also a need to expand current definitions and incorporate traditional knowledge into decision making. Examples are discussed from the First Environment Restoration Initiative, a project that is working to address toxicant issues facing the Mohawk territory of Akwesasne. This project is developing a community-defined model in which health is protected at the same time that traditional cultural practices, which have long been the key to individual and community health, are maintained and restored. PMID:11929736

  9. Holistic risk-based environmental decision making: a Native perspective.

    PubMed

    Arquette, Mary; Cole, Maxine; Cook, Katsi; LaFrance, Brenda; Peters, Margaret; Ransom, James; Sargent, Elvera; Smoke, Vivian; Stairs, Arlene

    2002-04-01

    Native American Nations have become increasingly concerned about the impacts of toxic substances. Although risk assessment and risk management processes have been used by government agencies to help estimate and manage risks associated with exposure to toxicants, these tools have many inadequacies and as a result have not served Native people well. In addition, resources have not always been adequate to address the concerns of Native Nations, and involvement of Native decision makers on a government-to-government basis in discussions regarding risk has only recently become common. Finally, because the definitions of health used by Native people are strikingly different from that of risk assessors, there is also a need to expand current definitions and incorporate traditional knowledge into decision making. Examples are discussed from the First Environment Restoration Initiative, a project that is working to address toxicant issues facing the Mohawk territory of Akwesasne. This project is developing a community-defined model in which health is protected at the same time that traditional cultural practices, which have long been the key to individual and community health, are maintained and restored. PMID:11929736

  10. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  11. Introduction to Decision Support Systems for Risk Based Management of Contaminated Sites

    EPA Science Inventory

    A book on Decision Support Systems for Risk-based Management of contaminated sites is appealing for two reasons. First, it addresses the problem of contaminated sites, which has worldwide importance. Second, it presents Decision Support Systems (DSSs), which are powerful comput...

  12. Probabilistic Risk Based Decision Support for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Facilities in Sensitive Ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Greg Thoma; John Veil; Fred Limp; Jackson Cothren; Bruce Gorham; Malcolm Williamson; Peter Smith; Bob Sullivan

    2009-05-31

    This report describes work performed during the initial period of the project 'Probabilistic Risk Based Decision Support for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Facilities in Sensitive Ecosystems.' The specific region that is within the scope of this study is the Fayetteville Shale Play. This is an unconventional, tight formation, natural gas play that currently has approximately 1.5 million acres under lease, primarily to Southwestern Energy Incorporated and Chesapeake Energy Incorporated. The currently active play encompasses a region from approximately Fort Smith, AR east to Little Rock, AR approximately 50 miles wide (from North to South). The initial estimates for this field put it almost on par with the Barnett Shale play in Texas. It is anticipated that thousands of wells will be drilled during the next several years; this will entail installation of massive support infrastructure of roads and pipelines, as well as drilling fluid disposal pits and infrastructure to handle millions of gallons of fracturing fluids. This project focuses on gas production in Arkansas as the test bed for application of proactive risk management decision support system for natural gas exploration and production. The activities covered in this report include meetings with representative stakeholders, development of initial content and design for an educational web site, and development and preliminary testing of an interactive mapping utility designed to provide users with information that will allow avoidance of sensitive areas during the development of the Fayetteville Shale Play. These tools have been presented to both regulatory and industrial stakeholder groups, and their feedback has been incorporated into the project.

  13. A risk-based decision-making game relevant to water management. Try it yourself!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappenberger, Florian; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Wood, Andy; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2013-04-01

    Monthly or seasonal streamflow forecasts are essential to improve water planning (eg., water allocation) and anticipate severe events like droughts. Additionally, multipurpose water reservoirs usually integrate hydrologic inflow forecasts to their operational management rules to optimize water allocation or its economic value, to mitigate droughts, for flood and ecological control, among others. Given the need to take into account uncertainties at long lead times to allow for optimal risk-based decisions, the use of probabilistic forecasts in this context is inevitable. In this presentation, we will engage a risk-based decision-making game, where each participant will act as a water manager. A sequence of probabilistic inflow forecasts will be presented to be used to make a reservoir release decision at a monthly time-step, subject to a few constraints -- e.g., an end of year target pool elevation, a maximum release and a minimum downstream flow. After each decision, the actual inflow will be presented and the consequences of the decisions made will be discussed together with the participants of the session. This experience will allow participants to experience firsthand the challenges of probabilistic, quantitative decision-making.

  14. Efficiency evaluation of a groundwater monitoring network using a risk-based decision- support process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; Birdsell, K.; Davis, P.; Echohawk, C.

    2006-12-01

    Efficiency evaluation of a groundwater monitoring network using a risk-based decision-support process Velimir V Vesselinov, Kay Birdsell, Paul David, Chris Echohawk A series of contaminant sources have the potential to impact the quality of regional groundwater resources beneath the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Currently, 21 areas have been identified where contaminants could possibly reach the regional aquifer at the water table. Because the temporal variability of the contaminant mass fluxes through the vadose zone is not well defined, source strength uncertainty at the regional aquifer is represented by a series of unit-mass source functions. Uncertainties in the potential contaminant pathways within the aquifer and the breakthrough curves at the potential discharge locations (receptors), which include water-supply wells and springs, are investigated. Risk-based analyses of the performance of the existing groundwater monitoring network are carried out. The network should be capable of detecting the potential contaminant plumes before they reach (1) the receptors and/or (2) the LANL boundaries at unacceptably high concentrations. Individual monitoring boreholes are ranked based on their importance for plume detection. Suggestions regarding optimal sampling frequency for the monitoring boreholes are also made. The study utilizes a risk-based decision-support process. The goal is to facilitate the decision process by means of risk-based analyses of model predictions that incorporate current data and conceptual understandings. The most important question is whether the existing knowledge is adequate and sufficient for each particular contamination source / pathway in order to select a remedy(ies) now without any further characterization. The immediate evaluation of remedy options can help prioritize our efforts and reduce the time to completion and cost of the LANL environmental program. Our study addresses fundamental questions related to building

  15. EVALUATING ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS.

    SciTech Connect

    SULLIVAN, T.

    2004-10-01

    Effective contaminated land management requires a number of decisions addressing a suite of technical, economic, and social concerns. These concerns include human health risks, ecological risks, economic costs, technical feasibility of proposed remedial actions, and the value society places on clean-up and re-use of formerly contaminated lands. Decision making, in the face of uncertainty and multiple and often conflicting objectives, is a vital and challenging role in environmental management that affects a significant economic activity. Although each environmental remediation problem is unique and requires a site-specific analysis, many of the key decisions are similar in structure. This has led many to attempt to develop standard approaches. As part of the standardization process, attempts have been made to codify specialist expertise into decision support tools. This activity is intended to facilitate reproducible and transparent decision making. The process of codifying procedures has also been found to be a useful activity for establishing and rationalizing management processes. This study will have two primary objectives. The first is to develop taxonomy for Decision Support Tools (DST) to provide a framework for understanding the different tools and what they are designed to address in the context of environmental remediation problems. The taxonomy will have a series of subject areas for the DST. From these subjects, a few key areas will be selected for further study and software in these areas will be identified. The second objective, will be to review the existing DST in the selected areas and develop a screening matrix for each software product.

  16. Rational risk-based decision support for drinking water well managers by optimized monitoring designs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enzenhöfer, R.; Geiges, A.; Nowak, W.

    2011-12-01

    Advection-based well-head protection zones are commonly used to manage the contamination risk of drinking water wells. Considering the insufficient knowledge about hazards and transport properties within the catchment, current Water Safety Plans recommend that catchment managers and stakeholders know, control and monitor all possible hazards within the catchments and perform rational risk-based decisions. Our goal is to supply catchment managers with the required probabilistic risk information, and to generate tools that allow for optimal and rational allocation of resources between improved monitoring versus extended safety margins and risk mitigation measures. To support risk managers with the indispensable information, we address the epistemic uncertainty of advective-dispersive solute transport and well vulnerability (Enzenhoefer et al., 2011) within a stochastic simulation framework. Our framework can separate between uncertainty of contaminant location and actual dilution of peak concentrations by resolving heterogeneity with high-resolution Monte-Carlo simulation. To keep computational costs low, we solve the reverse temporal moment transport equation. Only in post-processing, we recover the time-dependent solute breakthrough curves and the deduced well vulnerability criteria from temporal moments by non-linear optimization. Our first step towards optimal risk management is optimal positioning of sampling locations and optimal choice of data types to reduce best the epistemic prediction uncertainty for well-head delineation, using the cross-bred Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator (CLUE, Leube et al., 2011) for optimal sampling design. Better monitoring leads to more reliable and realistic protection zones and thus helps catchment managers to better justify smaller, yet conservative safety margins. In order to allow an optimal choice in sampling strategies, we compare the trade-off in monitoring versus the delineation costs by accounting for ill

  17. Decision Support Methods and Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Lawrence L.; Alexandrov, Natalia M.; Brown, Sherilyn A.; Cerro, Jeffrey A.; Gumbert, Clyde r.; Sorokach, Michael R.; Burg, Cecile M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper is one of a set of papers, developed simultaneously and presented within a single conference session, that are intended to highlight systems analysis and design capabilities within the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC). This paper focuses on the specific capabilities of uncertainty/risk analysis, quantification, propagation, decomposition, and management, robust/reliability design methods, and extensions of these capabilities into decision analysis methods within SACD. These disciplines are discussed together herein under the name of Decision Support Methods and Tools. Several examples are discussed which highlight the application of these methods within current or recent aerospace research at the NASA LaRC. Where applicable, commercially available, or government developed software tools are also discussed

  18. Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

  19. Orbitofrontal or accumbens dopamine depletion does not affect risk-based decision making in rats.

    PubMed

    Mai, Bettina; Hauber, Wolfgang

    2015-09-01

    Considerable evidence has implicated dopamine (DA) signals in target regions of midbrain DA neurons such as the medial prefrontal cortex or the core region of the nucleus accumbens in controlling risk-based decision-making. However, to date little is known about the contribution of DA in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and the medial shell region of the nucleus accumbens (AcbS) to risk-based decision-making. Here we examined in rats the effects of 6-hydroxydopamine-induced DA depletions of the OFC and AcbS on risky choice using an instrumental two-lever choice task that requires the assessment of fixed within-session reward probabilities that were shifted across subsequent sessions, i.e., rats had to choose between two levers, a small/certain lever that delivered one certain food reward (one pellet at p = 1) and a large/risky lever that delivered a larger uncertain food reward with decreasing probabilities across subsequent sessions (four pellets at p = 0.75, 0.5, 0.25, 0.125, 0.0625). Results show that systemic administration of amphetamine or cocaine increased the preference for the large/risky lever. Results further demonstrate that, like sham controls, rats with OFC or AcbS DA depletion were sensitive to changes in probabilities for obtaining the large/risky reward across sessions and displayed probabilistic discounting. These findings point to the view that the basal capacity to evaluate the magnitude and likelihood of rewards associated with alternative courses of action as well as long-term changes of reward probabilities does not rely on DA input to the AcbS or OFC. PMID:25860659

  20. Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

    PubMed

    Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-10-15

    The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. PMID:25108801

  1. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  2. Risk-Based Decision Process for Accelerated Closure of a Nuclear Weapons Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, L.; Norland, R. L.; DiSalvo, R.; Anderson, M.

    2003-02-25

    Nearly 40 years of nuclear weapons production at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS or Site) resulted in contamination of soil and underground systems and structures with hazardous substances, including plutonium, uranium and hazardous waste constituents. The Site was placed on the National Priority List in 1989. There are more than 370 Individual Hazardous Substance Sites (IHSSs) at RFETS. Accelerated cleanup and closure of RFETS is being achieved through implementation and refinement of a regulatory framework that fosters programmatic and technical innovations: (1) extensive use of ''accelerated actions'' to remediate IHSSs, (2) development of a risk-based screening process that triggers and helps define the scope of accelerated actions consistent with the final remedial action objectives for the Site, (3) use of field instrumentation for real time data collection, (4) a data management system that renders near real time field data assessment, and (5) a regulatory agency consultative process to facilitate timely decisions. This paper presents the process and interim results for these aspects of the accelerated closure program applied to Environmental Restoration activities at the Site.

  3. "People Can Go against the Government": Risk-Based Decision Making and High School Students' Concepts of Society

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radakovic, Nenad

    2015-01-01

    Research in mathematics education stresses the importance of content knowledge in solving authentic tasks in statistics and in risk-based decision making. Existing research supports the claim that students rely on content knowledge and context expertise to make sense of data. In this article, however, I present evidence that the relationship…

  4. Risk-based decision-making: A reality at the INEL

    SciTech Connect

    Halford, V.E.; Nitschke, R.L.; Hula, G.A.

    1994-12-31

    Risk Analysis and Risk Management are major components of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory`s (INEL`s) environmental restoration and waste management program. These tools help define responsible and cost-effective approaches to address potential human health and environmental risks from past operational practices. These techniques along with stake holder involvement, play a key role in the decision-making process which involves the US Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office (DOE), the US Environmental Protection Agency Region 10 (EPA), and the State of Idaho Department of Health and Welfare (IDHW), hereafter referred to as the agencies. An example of how this process works is Pad A, an above-ground mixed waste disposal site composed mainly of transuranic-contaminated evaporation pond salts. The site was constructed in 1972 for the disposal of solid radioactive wastes. A Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) baseline risk assessment was conducted to determine the incremental cancer risk and potential for adverse health effects to the public and the impacts to the environment if no action was performed. The risk characterization indicated that the carcinogenic risk for current and future hypothetical scenarios was below or within the NCP acceptable risk range. There was a potential 10 year window for an adverse health effect to an infant from nitrate contamination of the groundwater in about 250 years. Based on these results, a responsible and sound decision was reached to maintain and recontour the existing soil cover and to perform monitoring to confirm modeling assumptions.

  5. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    PubMed

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. PMID:26734840

  6. A Multiple Objective Decision Support Tool (MODS)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2003-12-14

    The Multiple Objective Decision Support (MODS) tool is an automated tool used to assist decision makers and policy analysts with multiple-objective decision problems. The classes of problems that this decision support tool addresses have both multiple objectives and multiple stakeholders. Decision problems, which have multiple objectives that in general cannot be maximized simultaneously, and multiple stakeholders, who have different perspectives about the relative importance of the objectives, require analytic approaches and tools that can providemore » flexible support to decision makers. This tool provides capabilities for the management, analysis, and graphical display for these types of decision problems drawn from diverse problem domains. The MODS tool is a unique integration of analysis algorithms, an information database, and a graphical user interface. This collection of algorithms, the combination of an information database with the analysis into a single tool, and the graphical user interface provides a technically advanced tool to decision makers and policy analysts. There are two main issues when addressing problems of this type: what set of attributes should be used to characterize the tokens in the domain of interest, and how should the values of these attributes and their weights be determined and combined to provide a relative ordering to the tokens. This tool addresses both of these issues. This decision support tool provides a flexible way to derive and use a chosen set of attributes. For example, the tool could be used to first perform a paired comparison of a large set of attributes and from this evaluation select those attributes that have the highest weights. The flexibility of the tool allows experimentation with various attribute sets and this capability, along with domain expertise, addresses the first issue. To address the second issue, several algorithms have been implemented. For example, two algorithms that have been implemented are

  7. GET SMARTE: DECISION TOOLS TO REVITALIZE BROWNFIELDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is an open-source, web-based, decision-support system for developing and evaluating future use scenarios for potentially contaminated sites (i.e., brownfields). It contains resources and analysis tools...

  8. An evaluation of the role of risk-based decision-making in a former manufactured gas plant site remediation.

    PubMed

    Vyas, Vikram M; Gochfeld, Michael G; Georgopoulos, Panos G; Lioy, Paul J; Sussman, Nancy R

    2006-02-01

    Environmental remediation decisions are driven by the need to minimize human health and ecological risks posed by environmental releases. The Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Sites enunciates the principles of exposure and risk assessment that are to be used for reaching remediation decisions for sites under Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). Experience with remediation management under CERCLA has led to recognition of some crucial infirmities in the processes for managing remediation: cleanup management policies are ad hoc in character, mandates and practices are strongly conservative, and contaminant risk management occurs in an artificially narrow context. The purpose of this case study is to show how a policy of risk-based decision-making was used to avoid customary pitfalls in site remediation. This case study describes the risk-based decision-making process in a remedial action program at a former manufactured gas plant site that successfully achieved timely and effective cleanup. The remediation process operated outside the confines of the CERCLA process under an administrative consent order between the utility and the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. A residential use end state was negotiated as part of this agreement. The attendant uncertainties, complications, and unexpected contingencies were overcome by using the likely exposures associated with the desired end state to structure all of the remediation management decisions and by collecting site-specific information from the very outset to obtain a detailed and realistic characterization of human health risks that needed to be mitigated. The lessons from this case study are generalizable to more complicated remediation cases, when supported by correspondingly sophisticated technical approaches. PMID:16570377

  9. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-08-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

  10. CO2-PENS: A CO2 Sequestration Systems Model Supporting Risk-Based Decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauffer, P. H.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Guthrie, G. D.; Pawar, R. J.; Kaszuba, J. P.; Carey, J. W.; Lichtner, P. C.; Ziock, H. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Olsen, S. C.; Chipera, S. J.; Fessenden-Rahn, J. E.

    2005-12-01

    The Zero Emissions Research and Technology (ZERT) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory is studying the injection of CO2 into geologic repositories. We are formulating the problem as science based decision framework that can address issues of risk, cost, and technical requirements at all stages of the sequestration process. The framework is implemented in a system model that is capable of performing stochastic simulations to address uncertainty in different geologic sequestration scenarios, including injection into poorly characterized brine aquifers. Processes level laboratory experiments, field experiments, modeling, economic data, and risk theory are used to support the system level model that will be the basis for decision making. The current system model, CO2-PENS, is already proving to be useful in showing complex interactions between the different components of the framework. The system model also provides a consistent platform to document decisions made during the site selection, implementation, and closure periods.

  11. Dynamic fluctuations in dopamine efflux in the prefrontal cortex and nucleus accumbens during risk-based decision making.

    PubMed

    St Onge, Jennifer R; Ahn, Soyon; Phillips, Anthony G; Floresco, Stan B

    2012-11-21

    Mesocorticolimbic dopamine (DA) has been implicated in cost/benefit decision making about risks and rewards. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) and nucleus accumbens (NAc) are two DA terminal regions that contribute to decision making in distinct manners. However, how fluctuations of tonic DA levels may relate to different aspects of decision making remains to be determined. The present study measured DA efflux in the PFC and NAc with microdialysis in well trained rats performing a probabilistic discounting task. Selection of a small/certain option always delivered one pellet, whereas another, large/risky option yielded four pellets, with probabilities that decreased (100-12.5%) or increased (12.5-100%) across four blocks of trials. Yoked-reward groups were also included to control for reward delivery. PFC DA efflux during decision making decreased or increased over a session, corresponding to changes in large/risky reward probabilities. Similar profiles were observed from yoked-rewarded rats, suggesting that fluctuations in PFC DA reflect changes in the relative rate of reward received. NAc DA efflux also showed decreasing/increasing trends over the session during both tasks. However, DA efflux was higher during decision making on free- versus forced-choice trials and during periods of greater reward uncertainty. Moreover, changes in NAc DA closely tracked shifts in choice biases. These data reveal dynamic and dissociable fluctuations in PFC and NAc DA transmission associated with different aspects of risk-based decision making. PFC DA may signal changes in reward availability that facilitates modification of choice biases, whereas NAc DA encodes integrated signals about reward rates, uncertainty, and choice, reflecting implementation of decision policies. PMID:23175840

  12. Decision generation tools and Bayesian inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jannson, Tomasz; Wang, Wenjian; Forrester, Thomas; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Veeris, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Digital Decision Generation (DDG) tools are important software sub-systems of Command and Control (C2) systems and technologies. In this paper, we present a special type of DDGs based on Bayesian Inference, related to adverse (hostile) networks, including such important applications as terrorism-related networks and organized crime ones.

  13. Risk-based decision analysis of atmospheric emission alternatives to reduce ground water degradation on the European scale

    SciTech Connect

    Wladis, D.; Rosen, L.; Kros, H.

    1999-12-01

    Environmental degradation due to emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrate oxides, and ammonia from diffuse sources amounts to substantial costs to society and so do the alternatives to protect and restore the environment. Damage to ground water includes acidification, aluminum leaching, elevated concentrations of nitrate, and eutrophication. Monetary risk-based decision analysis (on a national scale) is applied to compare alternative actions designed to protect ground water from further degradation. This decision analysis uses simulations of nitrate and aluminum concentrations over a 15 year period with two reduction scenarios for sulfur dioxide, nitrate oxides, and ammonia, and results in estimates of economic uncertainty. For each alternative, an objective function is estimated including the implementation costs, the economic risk associated with failure according to the selected decision criteria, and the economic benefits related to the implementation. The decision criteria are based on the European Community drinking water quality standards for nitrate and aluminum. The study aims at incorporating the hydrogeologic uncertainty resulting from the propagation of errors from data input to model out put. A range of economic values has been applied to the ground water resource to study the sensitivity of the decision analysis to valuing ground water. The results indicate that higher reduction rates of the studied pollutants reduce the economic uncertainty but also lead to larger total costs. The study also indicates that the economic uncertainty may be equal to the total cost provided by the objective function. The contamination level of nitrate is much more responsive to the reduction scenarios than the aluminum concentration. For high, but not unrealistic, ground water valuing, the economic uncertainty makes the decision between the studied alternatives unclear.

  14. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan, Erin; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Forecast uncertainty is a twofold issue, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts for a diversity of activities in the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. The setup and the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, designed as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called ``How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?'', will be presented. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, including during this session at the EGU conference in 2015, and a total of 129 worksheets were collected and analysed. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game showed that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community in the future.

  15. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  16. A Conceptual Framework for Decision-making Support in Uncertainty- and Risk-based Diagnosis of Rare Clinical Cases by Specialist Physicians.

    PubMed

    Santos, Adriano A; Moura, J Antão B; de Araújo, Joseana Macêdo Fechine Régis

    2015-01-01

    Mitigating uncertainty and risks faced by specialist physicians in analysis of rare clinical cases is something desired by anyone who needs health services. The number of clinical cases never seen by these experts, with little documentation, may introduce errors in decision-making. Such errors negatively affect well-being of patients, increase procedure costs, rework, health insurance premiums, and impair the reputation of specialists and medical systems involved. In this context, IT and Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) play a fundamental role, supporting decision-making process, making it more efficient and effective, reducing a number of avoidable medical errors and enhancing quality of treatment given to patients. An investigation has been initiated to look into characteristics and solution requirements of this problem, model it, propose a general solution in terms of a conceptual risk-based, automated framework to support rare-case medical diagnostics and validate it by means of case studies. A preliminary validation study of the proposed framework has been carried out by interviews conducted with experts who are practicing professionals, academics, and researchers in health care. This paper summarizes the investigation and its positive results. These results motivate continuation of research towards development of the conceptual framework and of a software tool that implements the proposed model. PMID:26262173

  17. Neural substrates underlying effort, time, and risk-based decision making in motivated behavior.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Matthew R; Simpson, Eleanor H; Balsam, Peter D

    2016-09-01

    All mobile organisms rely on adaptive motivated behavior to overcome the challenges of living in an environment in which essential resources may be limited. A variety of influences ranging from an organism's environment, experiential history, and physiological state all influence a cost-benefit analysis which allows motivation to energize behavior and direct it toward specific goals. Here we review the substantial amount of research aimed at discovering the interconnected neural circuits which allow organisms to carry-out the cost-benefit computations which allow them to behave in adaptive ways. We specifically focus on how the brain deals with different types of costs, including effort requirements, delays to reward and payoff riskiness. An examination of this broad literature highlights the importance of the extended neural circuits which enable organisms to make decisions about these different types of costs. This involves Cortical Structures, including the Anterior Cingulate Cortex (ACC), the Orbital Frontal Cortex (OFC), the Infralimbic Cortex (IL), and prelimbic Cortex (PL), as well as the Baso-Lateral Amygdala (BLA), the Nucleus Accumbens (NAcc), the Ventral Pallidal (VP), the Sub Thalamic Nucleus (STN) among others. Some regions are involved in multiple aspects of cost-benefit computations while the involvement of other regions is restricted to information relating to specific types of costs. PMID:27427327

  18. Decision-support tool for prevention and control of Rift Valley fever epizootics in the Greater Horn of Africa.

    PubMed

    2010-08-01

    In East Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF) usually occurs as explosive epizootics with prolonged inter-epidemic periods on the order of 8 to 10 years. The episodic nature of the disease and the rapid evolution of outbreaks create special challenges for its mitigation and control. Following the events of the 2006 and 2007 RVF outbreak in East Africa, decision-makers assembled their collective experiences in the form of a risk-based decision support tool to help guide responses in future emergencies. The premise of the tool is that a series of natural events are indicative of the increasing risk of an outbreak and that actions should be matched to this evolving risk profile. In this manner, investment in prevention and control can be qualitatively optimized. The decision support tool is a living document written through stakeholder input. This publication captures the current tool as an example of risk-based decision support. PMID:20682910

  19. A GIS Tool To Estimate West Nile Virus Risk based On A Degree-Day Model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    West Nile virus(Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) is a serious infectious disease that recently spread across the North America continent. A spatial analysis tool was developed on the ARCMap 9.x platform to estimate potential West Nile virus activitiy using a spatially explicit degree-day model. The mdoel...

  20. A risk-based predictive tool to prevent accidental introductions of nonindigenous marine species.

    PubMed

    Floerl, Oliver; Inglis, Graeme J; Hayden, Barbara J

    2005-06-01

    Preventing the introduction of nonindigenous species (NIS) is the most efficient way to avoid the costs and impacts of biological invasions. The transport of fouling species on ship hulls is an important vector for the introduction of marine NIS. We use quantitative risk screening techniques to develop a predictive tool of the abundance and variety of organisms being transported by ocean-going yachts. We developed and calibrated an ordinal rank scale of the abundance of fouling assemblages on the hulls of international yacht hulls arriving in New Zealand. Fouling ranks were allocated to 783 international yachts that arrived in New Zealand between 2002 and 2004. Classification tree analysis was used to identify relationships between the fouling ranks and predictor variables that described the maintenance and travel history of the yachts. The fouling ranks provided reliable indications of the actual abundance and variety of fouling assemblages on the yachts and identified most (60%) yachts that had fouling on their hulls. However, classification tree models explained comparatively little of the variation in the distribution of fouling ranks (22.1%), had high misclassification rates (approximately 43%), and low predictive power. In agreement with other studies, the best model selected the age of the toxic antifouling paint on yacht hulls as the principal risk factor for hull fouling. Our study shows that the transport probability of fouling organisms is the result of a complex suite of interacting factors and that large sample sizes will be needed for calibration of robust risk models. PMID:15940401

  1. ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

  2. Influence diagrams as oil spill decision science tools

    EPA Science Inventory

    Making inferences on risks to ecosystem services (ES) from ecological crises can be more reliably handled using decision science tools. Influence diagrams (IDs) are probabilistic networks that explicitly represent the decisions related to a problem and evidence of their influence...

  3. Tools to Promote Shared Decision Making in Serious Illness

    PubMed Central

    Austin, C. Adrian; Mohottige, Dinushika; Sudore, Rebecca L.; Smith, Alexander K.; Hanson, Laura C.

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Serious illness impairs function and threatens survival. Patients facing serious illness value shared decision making, yet few decision aids address the needs of this population. OBJECTIVE To perform a systematic review of evidence about decision aids and other exportable tools that promote shared decision making in serious illness, thereby (1) identifying tools relevant to the treatment decisions of seriously ill patients and their caregivers, (2) evaluating the quality of evidence for these tools, and (3) summarizing their effect on outcomes and accessibility for clinicians. EVIDENCE REVIEW We searched PubMed, CINAHL, and PsychInfo from January 1, 1995, through October 31, 2014, and identified additional studies from reference lists and other systematic reviews. Clinical trials with random or nonrandom controls were included if they tested print, video, or web-based tools for advance care planning (ACP) or decision aids for serious illness. We extracted data on the study population, design, results, and risk for bias using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. Each tool was evaluated for its effect on patient outcomes and accessibility. FINDINGS Seventeen randomized clinical trials tested decision tools in serious illness. Nearly all the trials were of moderate or high quality and showed that decision tools improve patient knowledge and awareness of treatment choices. The available tools address ACP, palliative care and goals of care communication, feeding options in dementia, lung transplant in cystic fibrosis, and truth telling in terminal cancer. Five randomized clinical trials provided further evidence that decision tools improve ACP documentation, clinical decisions, and treatment received. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Clinicians can access and use evidence-based tools to engage seriously ill patients in shared decision making. This field of research is in an early stage; future research is needed to

  4. Decision blocks: A tool for automating decision making in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eick, Christoph F.; Mehta, Nikhil N.

    1991-01-01

    The human capability of making complex decision is one of the most fascinating facets of human intelligence, especially if vague, judgemental, default or uncertain knowledge is involved. Unfortunately, most existing rule based forward chaining languages are not very suitable to simulate this aspect of human intelligence, because of their lack of support for approximate reasoning techniques needed for this task, and due to the lack of specific constructs to facilitate the coding of frequently reoccurring decision block to provide better support for the design and implementation of rule based decision support systems. A language called BIRBAL, which is defined on the top of CLIPS, for the specification of decision blocks, is introduced. Empirical experiments involving the comparison of the length of CLIPS program with the corresponding BIRBAL program for three different applications are surveyed. The results of these experiments suggest that for decision making intensive applications, a CLIPS program tends to be about three times longer than the corresponding BIRBAL program.

  5. A risk-based focused decision-management approach for justifying characterization of Hanford tank waste. June 1996, Revision 1; April 1997, Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Colson, S.D.; Gephart, R.E.; Hunter, V.L.; Janata, J.; Morgan, L.G.

    1997-12-31

    This report describes a disciplined, risk-based decision-making approach for determining characterization needs and resolving safety issues during the storage and remediation of radioactive waste stored in Hanford tanks. The strategy recommended uses interactive problem evaluation and decision analysis methods commonly used in industry to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty (i.e., lack of perfect knowledge). It acknowledges that problem resolution comes through both the application of high-quality science and human decisions based upon preferences and sometimes hard-to-compare choices. It recognizes that to firmly resolve a safety problem, the controlling waste characteristics and chemical phenomena must be measurable or estimated to an acceptable level of confidence tailored to the decision being made.

  6. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often confronted with information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. If these health effects need to be contrasted with costs or compared with alternative scena...

  7. Virtual Beach: Decision Support Tools for Beach Pathogen Prediction

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Virtual Beach Managers Tool (VB) is decision-making software developed to help local beach managers make decisions as to when beaches should be closed due to predicted high levels of water borne pathogens. The tool is being developed under the umbrella of EPA's Advanced Monit...

  8. Development of Asset Management Decision Support Tools for Power Equipment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okamoto, Tatsuki; Takahashi, Tsuguhiro

    Development of asset management decision support tools become very intensive in order to reduce maintenance cost of power equipment due to the liberalization of power business. This article reviews some aspects of present status of asset management decision support tools development for power equipment based on the papers published in international conferences, domestic conventions, and several journals.

  9. [Economic studies and decision analysis as tools for decision making].

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Pimentel, Leticia; Silva-Romo, Rodolfo; Wacher-Rodarte, Niels

    2007-01-01

    Management implies decision-making and economics deals with efficiency which means to obtain the best possible results with the available resources, and to compare such results with those that were foreseen. The economic evaluation comprises a set of techniques aimed at comparing resource allocation on alternate courses of action and its consequences. In health care, these results are the overall well-being of the society. This paper summarizes the techniques that are customarily used in economic evaluation, and intends to serve as an introductory text to increasing the ability of the readers to grasp original articles in the field of health economics. PMID:17692169

  10. Ultrasound technology: A decision-making tool

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An ultrasound demonstration was conducted for participants (~ 110 people) of the Arkansas Cattle Grower’s Conference, Hope, AR. Evaluation of live animals with ultrasound technology allows beef producers the ability to make selection and management decisions. Specifically, ultrasound at the conclu...

  11. Supporting Medical Decision Making with Argumentation Tools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Jingyan; Lajoie, Susanne P.

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the collaborative decision-making and communicative discourse of groups of learners engaged in a simulated medical emergency in two conditions. In one condition subgroups used a traditional whiteboard (TW group) to document medical arguments on how to solve a medical emergency. In the other condition subgroups used…

  12. Decision support tools for policy and planning

    SciTech Connect

    Jacyk, P.; Schultz, D.; Spangenberg, L.

    1995-07-01

    A decision support system (DSS) is being developed at the Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The DSS will be used to evaluate alternatives for improving LANL`s existing central radioactive waste water treatment plant and to evaluate new site-wide liquid waste treatment schemes that are required in order to handle the diverse waste streams produced at LANL. The decision support system consists of interacting modules that perform the following tasks: rigorous process simulation, configuration management, performance analysis, cost analysis, risk analysis, environmental impact assessment, transportation modeling, and local, state, and federal regulation compliance checking. Uncertainty handling techniques are used with these modules and also with a decision synthesis module which combines results from the modules listed above. We believe the DSS being developed can be applied to almost any other industrial water treatment facility with little modification because in most situations the waste streams are less complex, fewer regulations apply, and the political environment is simpler. The techniques being developed are also generally applicable to policy and planning decision support systems in the chemical process industry.

  13. Tools to support evidence-informed public health decision making

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Public health professionals are increasingly expected to engage in evidence-informed decision making to inform practice and policy decisions. Evidence-informed decision making involves the use of research evidence along with expertise, existing public health resources, knowledge about community health issues, the local context and community, and the political climate. The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools has identified a seven step process for evidence-informed decision making. Tools have been developed to support public health professionals as they work through each of these steps. This paper provides an overview of tools used in three Canadian public health departments involved in a study to develop capacity for evidence-informed decision making. Methods As part of a knowledge translation and exchange intervention, a Knowledge Broker worked with public health professionals to identify and apply tools for use with each of the steps of evidence-informed decision making. The Knowledge Broker maintained a reflective journal and interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of decision makers and public health professionals. This paper presents qualitative analysis of the perceived usefulness and usability of the tools. Results Tools were used in the health departments to assist in: question identification and clarification; searching for the best available research evidence; assessing the research evidence for quality through critical appraisal; deciphering the ‘actionable message(s)’ from the research evidence; tailoring messages to the local context to ensure their relevance and suitability; deciding whether and planning how to implement research evidence in the local context; and evaluating the effectiveness of implementation efforts. Decision makers provided descriptions of how the tools were used within the health departments and made suggestions for improvement. Overall, the tools were perceived as valuable for advancing

  14. TBell: A mathematical tool for analyzing decision tables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoover, D. N.; Chen, Zewei

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the development of mathematical theory and software to analyze specifications that are developed using decision tables. A decision table is a tabular format for specifying a complex set of rules that chooses one of a number of alternative actions. The report also describes a prototype tool, called TBell, that automates certain types of analysis.

  15. A network model of basal ganglia for understanding the roles of dopamine and serotonin in reward-punishment-risk based decision making

    PubMed Central

    Balasubramani, Pragathi P.; Chakravarthy, V. Srinivasa; Ravindran, Balaraman; Moustafa, Ahmed A.

    2015-01-01

    There is significant evidence that in addition to reward-punishment based decision making, the Basal Ganglia (BG) contributes to risk-based decision making (Balasubramani et al., 2014). Despite this evidence, little is known about the computational principles and neural correlates of risk computation in this subcortical system. We have previously proposed a reinforcement learning (RL)-based model of the BG that simulates the interactions between dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) in a diverse set of experimental studies including reward, punishment and risk based decision making (Balasubramani et al., 2014). Starting with the classical idea that the activity of mesencephalic DA represents reward prediction error, the model posits that serotoninergic activity in the striatum controls risk-prediction error. Our prior model of the BG was an abstract model that did not incorporate anatomical and cellular-level data. In this work, we expand the earlier model into a detailed network model of the BG and demonstrate the joint contributions of DA-5HT in risk and reward-punishment sensitivity. At the core of the proposed network model is the following insight regarding cellular correlates of value and risk computation. Just as DA D1 receptor (D1R) expressing medium spiny neurons (MSNs) of the striatum were thought to be the neural substrates for value computation, we propose that DA D1R and D2R co-expressing MSNs are capable of computing risk. Though the existence of MSNs that co-express D1R and D2R are reported by various experimental studies, prior existing computational models did not include them. Ours is the first model that accounts for the computational possibilities of these co-expressing D1R-D2R MSNs, and describes how DA and 5HT mediate activity in these classes of neurons (D1R-, D2R-, D1R-D2R- MSNs). Starting from the assumption that 5HT modulates all MSNs, our study predicts significant modulatory effects of 5HT on D2R and co-expressing D1R-D2R MSNs which in turn

  16. Integrated decision support tools for Puget Sound salmon recovery planning

    EPA Science Inventory

    We developed a set of tools to provide decision support for community-based salmon recovery planning in Salish Sea watersheds. Here we describe how these tools are being integrated and applied in collaboration with Puget Sound tribes and community stakeholders to address restora...

  17. GET SMARTE: DECISION TOOLS TO REVITALIZE COMMUNITIES (MAY 2006)

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is an open-source, web-based, decision-support system for developing and evaluating future use scenarios for potentially contaminated sites (i.e., brownfields). It contains resources and analysis tools...

  18. EcoSys{trademark}: An environmental decision support tool

    SciTech Connect

    Wheelis, W.T.

    1995-12-31

    There is an increasing interest in environmental trade-offs and impacts of competing processes and products over their life cycle. This interest is based on realization that the true environmental burden associated with a product spans all aspects of a product`s life (e.g., extraction of raw materials, manufacturing, use, and disposal). Environmental decisions are complicated due to the many technical, societal, and regulatory perspectives associated with environmental quality. Because of this complexity, there is a need for environmental decision support tools. EcoSys{trademark} is an environmental information and rule based expert system decision support tool being developed at SNL. The goal is to aid designers, process engineers, managers, and others in making environmentally conscious selections of product design and processes. A demonstration of EcoSys will be presented to document the progress being made in the development of such an environmental decision support tool.

  19. The decision - identification tree: A new EIS scoping tool

    SciTech Connect

    Eccleston, C.H.

    1997-04-02

    No single methodology has been developed or universally accepted for determining the scope of an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). Most typically, the scope is determined by first identifying actions and facilities to be analyzed. Yet, agencies sometimes complete an EIS, only to discover that the scope does not adequately address decisions that need to be made. Such discrepancies can often be traced to disconnects between the scoping process and the actual decision making that follows. A new tool, for use in a value engineering setting, provides an effective methodology for improving the EIS scoping process. Application of this tool is not limited to National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) scoping efforts. This tool, could in fact, be used to map potential decision points for a range of diverse planning applications and exercises.

  20. Clinical Decision Support Tools: The Evolution of a Revolution.

    PubMed

    Mould, D R; D'Haens, G; Upton, R N

    2016-04-01

    Dashboard systems for clinical decision support integrate data from multiple sources. These systems, the newest in a long line of dose calculators and other decision support tools, utilize Bayesian approaches to fully individualize dosing using information gathered through therapeutic drug monitoring. In the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease patients with infliximab, dashboards may reduce therapeutic failures and treatment costs. The history and future development of modern Bayesian dashboard systems is described. PMID:26785109

  1. ClinicalAccess: a clinical decision support tool.

    PubMed

    Crowell, Karen; Vardell, Emily

    2015-01-01

    ClinicalAccess is a new clinical decision support tool that uses a question-and-answer format to mirror clinical decision-making strategies. The unique format of ClinicalAccess delivers concise, authoritative answers to more than 120,000 clinical questions. This column presents a review of the product, a sample search, and a comparison with other point-of-care search engines. PMID:25927513

  2. The Decision-Identification Tree: A New NEPA Scoping Tool.

    PubMed

    Eccleston

    2000-10-01

    / No single methodology has been universally accepted for determining the appropriate scope of analysis for an environmental impact statement (EIS). Most typically, the scope of analysis is determined by first identifying actions and facilities that need to be analyzed. Once the scope of actions and facilities is identified, the scope of impacts is determined. Yet agencies sometimes complete an EIS only to discover that the analysis does not adequately support decisions that need to be made. Such discrepancies can often be traced to disconnects between scoping, the subsequent analysis, and the final decision-making process that follows. A new and markedly different approach-decision-based scoping-provides an effective methodology for improving the EIS scoping process. Decision-based scoping, in conjunction with a new tool, the decision-identification tree (DIT), places emphasis on first identifying the potential decisions that may eventually need to be made. The DIT provides a methodology for mapping alternative courses of action as a function of fundamental decision points. Once these decision points have been correctly identified, the range of actions, alternatives, and impacts can be more accurately assessed; this approach can improve the effectiveness of EIS planning, while reducing the risk of future disconnects between the EIS analysis and reaching a final decision. This approach also has applications in other planning disciplines beyond that of the EIS. PMID:10954809

  3. Cognitive Judgment Bias Interacts with Risk Based Decision Making and Sensitivity to Dopaminergic Challenge in Male Rats.

    PubMed

    Drozd, Robert; Cieslak, Przemyslaw E; Rychlik, Michal; Rodriguez Parkitna, Jan; Rygula, Rafal

    2016-01-01

    Although the cognitive theory has implicated judgment bias in various psychopathologies, its role in decision making under risk remains relatively unexplored. In the present study, we assessed the effects of cognitive judgment bias on risky choices in rats. First, we trained and tested the animals on the rat version of the probability-discounting (PD) task. During discrete trials, the rats chose between two levers; a press on the "small/certain" lever always resulted in the delivery of one reward pellet, whereas a press on the "large/risky" lever resulted in the delivery of four pellets. However, the probability of receiving a reward from the "large/risky" lever gradually decreased over the four trial blocks. Subsequently, the rats were re-trained and evaluated on a series of ambiguous-cue interpretation (ACI) tests, which permitted their classification according to the display of "optimistic" or "pessimistic" traits. Because dopamine (DA) has been implicated in both: risky choices and optimism, in the last experiment, we compared the reactivity of the dopaminergic system in the "optimistic" and "pessimistic" animals using the apomorphine (APO; 2 mg/kg s.c.) sensitivity test. We demonstrated that as risk increased, the proportion of risky lever choices decreased significantly slower in "optimists" compared with "pessimists" and that these differences between the two groups of rats were associated with different levels of dopaminergic system reactivity. Our findings suggest that cognitive judgment bias, risky decision-making and DA are linked, and they provide a foundation for further investigation of the behavioral traits and cognitive processes that influence risky choices in animal models. PMID:27601984

  4. Cognitive Judgment Bias Interacts with Risk Based Decision Making and Sensitivity to Dopaminergic Challenge in Male Rats

    PubMed Central

    Drozd, Robert; Cieslak, Przemyslaw E.; Rychlik, Michal; Rodriguez Parkitna, Jan; Rygula, Rafal

    2016-01-01

    Although the cognitive theory has implicated judgment bias in various psychopathologies, its role in decision making under risk remains relatively unexplored. In the present study, we assessed the effects of cognitive judgment bias on risky choices in rats. First, we trained and tested the animals on the rat version of the probability-discounting (PD) task. During discrete trials, the rats chose between two levers; a press on the “small/certain” lever always resulted in the delivery of one reward pellet, whereas a press on the “large/risky” lever resulted in the delivery of four pellets. However, the probability of receiving a reward from the “large/risky” lever gradually decreased over the four trial blocks. Subsequently, the rats were re-trained and evaluated on a series of ambiguous-cue interpretation (ACI) tests, which permitted their classification according to the display of “optimistic” or “pessimistic” traits. Because dopamine (DA) has been implicated in both: risky choices and optimism, in the last experiment, we compared the reactivity of the dopaminergic system in the “optimistic” and “pessimistic” animals using the apomorphine (APO; 2 mg/kg s.c.) sensitivity test. We demonstrated that as risk increased, the proportion of risky lever choices decreased significantly slower in “optimists” compared with “pessimists” and that these differences between the two groups of rats were associated with different levels of dopaminergic system reactivity. Our findings suggest that cognitive judgment bias, risky decision-making and DA are linked, and they provide a foundation for further investigation of the behavioral traits and cognitive processes that influence risky choices in animal models. PMID:27601984

  5. A Decision Support Model and Tool to Assist Financial Decision-Making in Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhayat, Imtiaz; Manuguerra, Maurizio; Baldock, Clive

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model and tool is proposed to assist universities and other mission-based organisations to ascertain systematically the optimal portfolio of projects, in any year, meeting the organisations risk tolerances and available funds. The model and tool presented build on previous work on university operations and decision support systems…

  6. Commercial pharmacogenetic-based decision-support tools in psychiatry.

    PubMed

    Bousman, Chad A; Hopwood, Malcolm

    2016-06-01

    Despite a compendium of pharmacotherapies available for treating psychiatric illnesses, suboptimal response to these therapies is typical and thought to be in part a result of genetic variation. This notion has sparked a personalised psychiatry movement, which has in turn led to the development of several commercial pharmacogenetic-based decision support tools marketed to psychiatrists as an alternative to typical, trial-and-error, prescribing. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the validity and usefulness of these tools and whether there is sufficient evidence to support their adoption. In this Personal View, we provide an introduction to these tools and assess their potential usefulness in psychiatry practice. We conclude with clinical considerations and development strategies for improving future pharmacogenetic-based decision support tools for clinical use. PMID:27133546

  7. Modeling approaches for characterizing and evaluating environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials in support of risk-based decision making.

    PubMed

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Michael; Grieger, Khara D; Money, Eric S; Johnston, John M; Wiesner, Mark R; Beaulieu, Stephen M

    2013-02-01

    As the use of engineered nanomaterials becomes more prevalent, the likelihood of unintended exposure to these materials also increases. Given the current scarcity of experimental data regarding fate, transport, and bioavailability, determining potential environmental exposure to these materials requires an in depth analysis of modeling techniques that can be used in both the near- and long-term. Here, we provide a critical review of traditional and emerging exposure modeling approaches to highlight the challenges that scientists and decision-makers face when developing environmental exposure and risk assessments for nanomaterials. We find that accounting for nanospecific properties, overcoming data gaps, realizing model limitations, and handling uncertainty are key to developing informative and reliable environmental exposure and risk assessments for engineered nanomaterials. We find methods suited to recognizing and addressing significant uncertainty to be most appropriate for near-term environmental exposure modeling, given the current state of information and the current insufficiency of established deterministic models to address environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials. PMID:23293982

  8. The medical decision model and decision maker tools for management of radiological and nuclear incidents.

    PubMed

    Koerner, John F; Coleman, C Norman; Murrain-Hill, Paula; FitzGerald, Denis J; Sullivan, Julie M

    2014-06-01

    Effective decision making during a rapidly evolving emergency such as a radiological or nuclear incident requires timely interim decisions and communications from onsite decision makers while further data processing, consultation, and review are ongoing by reachback experts. The authors have recently proposed a medical decision model for use during a radiological or nuclear disaster, which is similar in concept to that used in medical care, especially when delay in action can have disastrous effects. For decision makers to function most effectively during a complex response, they require access to onsite subject matter experts who can provide information, recommendations, and participate in public communication efforts. However, in the time before this expertise is available or during the planning phase, just-in-time tools are essential that provide critical overview of the subject matter written specifically for the decision makers. Recognizing the complexity of the science, risk assessment, and multitude of potential response assets that will be required after a nuclear incident, the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, in collaboration with other government and non-government experts, has prepared a practical guide for decision makers. This paper illustrates how the medical decision model process could facilitate onsite decision making that includes using the deliberative reachback process from science and policy experts and describes the tools now available to facilitate timely and effective incident management. PMID:24776895

  9. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: PUBLISHED REPORT

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL-CIN-1351A Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. EPA/600/R-01/104 (NTIS PB2002-102119). Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often ...

  10. Risk-Based Decision Making for Reoccupation of Contaminated Areas Following a Wide-Area Anthrax Release.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Michael A; Hong, Tao; Casman, Elizabeth; Gurian, Patrick L

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an analysis of postattack response strategies to mitigate the risks of reoccupying contaminated areas following a release of Bacillus anthracis spores (the bacterium responsible for causing anthrax) in an urban setting. The analysis is based on a hypothetical attack scenario in which individuals are exposed to B. anthracis spores during an initial aerosol release and then placed on prophylactic antibiotics that successfully protect them against the initial aerosol exposure. The risk from reoccupying buildings contaminated with spores due to their reaerosolization and inhalation is then evaluated. The response options considered include: decontamination of the buildings, vaccination of individuals reoccupying the buildings, extended evacuation of individuals from the contaminated buildings, and combinations of these options. The study uses a decision tree to estimate the costs and benefits of alternative response strategies across a range of exposure risks. Results for best estimates of model inputs suggest that the most cost-effective response for high-risk scenarios (individual chance of infection exceeding 11%) consists of evacuation and building decontamination. For infection risks between 4% and 11%, the preferred option is to evacuate for a short period, vaccinate, and then reoccupy once the vaccine has taken effect. For risks between 0.003% and 4%, the preferred option is to vaccinate only. For risks below 0.003%, none of the mitigation actions have positive expected monetary benefits. A sensitivity analysis indicates that for high-infection-likelihood scenarios, vaccination is recommended in the case where decontamination efficacy is less than 99.99%. PMID:25946233

  11. An extended reinforcement learning model of basal ganglia to understand the contributions of serotonin and dopamine in risk-based decision making, reward prediction, and punishment learning

    PubMed Central

    Balasubramani, Pragathi P.; Chakravarthy, V. Srinivasa; Ravindran, Balaraman; Moustafa, Ahmed A.

    2014-01-01

    Although empirical and neural studies show that serotonin (5HT) plays many functional roles in the brain, prior computational models mostly focus on its role in behavioral inhibition. In this study, we present a model of risk based decision making in a modified Reinforcement Learning (RL)-framework. The model depicts the roles of dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) in Basal Ganglia (BG). In this model, the DA signal is represented by the temporal difference error (δ), while the 5HT signal is represented by a parameter (α) that controls risk prediction error. This formulation that accommodates both 5HT and DA reconciles some of the diverse roles of 5HT particularly in connection with the BG system. We apply the model to different experimental paradigms used to study the role of 5HT: (1) Risk-sensitive decision making, where 5HT controls risk assessment, (2) Temporal reward prediction, where 5HT controls time-scale of reward prediction, and (3) Reward/Punishment sensitivity, in which the punishment prediction error depends on 5HT levels. Thus the proposed integrated RL model reconciles several existing theories of 5HT and DA in the BG. PMID:24795614

  12. New Decision Tool To Evaluate Award Selection Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thornley, Richard; Spence, Matthew W.; Taylor, Mark; Magnan, Jacques

    2002-01-01

    Describes an Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research initiative to enhance the review process for its training awards using a new tool based on the ProGrid decision-assist software. Implementation resulted in several modifications to the review process in the areas of definition, rationality, fairness, timeliness, and responsiveness; the…

  13. Developing a Decision Support System: The Software and Hardware Tools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Phillip M.

    1989-01-01

    Describes some of the available software and hardware tools that can be used to develop a decision support system implemented on microcomputers. Activities that should be supported by software are discussed, including data entry, data coding, finding and combining data, and data compatibility. Hardware considerations include speed, storage…

  14. Water flow algorithm decision support tool for travelling salesman problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamarudin, Anis Aklima; Othman, Zulaiha Ali; Sarim, Hafiz Mohd

    2016-08-01

    This paper discuss about the role of Decision Support Tool in Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) for helping the researchers who doing research in same area will get the better result from the proposed algorithm. A study has been conducted and Rapid Application Development (RAD) model has been use as a methodology which includes requirement planning, user design, construction and cutover. Water Flow Algorithm (WFA) with initialization technique improvement is used as the proposed algorithm in this study for evaluating effectiveness against TSP cases. For DST evaluation will go through usability testing conducted on system use, quality of information, quality of interface and overall satisfaction. Evaluation is needed for determine whether this tool can assists user in making a decision to solve TSP problems with the proposed algorithm or not. Some statistical result shown the ability of this tool in term of helping researchers to conduct the experiments on the WFA with improvements TSP initialization.

  15. OPENING COMMENTS TO THE SPECIAL SESSION ON DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS.

    SciTech Connect

    SULLIVAN,T.; BARDOS,P.

    2000-06-01

    The emphasis of the session was on the use of decision support tools for actual remediation decisions. It considered two perspectives: site-specific decision making for example choosing a particular remediation system; and remediation in terms of a risk management/risk reduction process as part of a wider process of site management. These were addressed both as general topics and as case studies. Case studies were included to provide information on decision support techniques for specific contamination problems such as remedy selection. In the case studies, the authors present the general process to provide decision support and then discuss the application to a specific problem. The intent of this approach is to provide the interested reader with enough knowledge to determine if the process could be used on their specific set of problems. The general topics included broader issues that are not directly tied to a specific problem. The general topics included papers on the role of stakeholders in the decision process and decision support approaches for sustainable development.

  16. Guidance Tools for Use in Nuclear Material Management Decisions Making

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, G. V.; Baker, D. J.; Sorenson, K. B.; Boeke, S. G.

    2002-02-26

    This paper describes the results of Recommendation 14 of the Integrated Nuclear Materials Management Plan (INMMP) which was the product of a management initiative at the highest levels of the Department of Energy responding to a congressional directive to accelerate the work of achieving integration and cutting long-term costs associated with the management of nuclear materials, with the principal focus on excess materials. The INMMP provided direction to ''Develop policy-level decision support tools to support long-term planning and decision making.'' To accomplish this goal a team from the Savannah River Site, Sandia National Laboratories, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), and the U.S. Department of Energy experienced in the decision-making process developed a Guidebook to Decision-Making Methods. The goal of the team organized to implement Recommendation 14 was to instill transparency, consistency, rigor, and discipline in the DOE decision process. The guidebook introduces a process and a selection of proven methods for disciplined decision-making so that the results are clearer, more transparent, and easier for reviewers to understand and accept. It was written to set a standard for a consistent decision process.

  17. Animated simulation: a valuable decision support tool for practice improvement.

    PubMed

    Ledlow, G R; Bradshaw, D M

    1999-01-01

    Animated computer simulation is a powerful tool for healthcare operation improvement. As a decision support tool, it offers a systematic method to compare alternative approaches to healthcare operations. Because staff interaction is encouraged by this tool, simulation projects facilitate staff team building and process change ownership. Information that is not used as applied knowledge for the purpose of improvement is worthless. Simulation offers management detailed knowledge of processes, enabling management to make better-informed decisions by providing performance data, such as resource usage rates, patient wait times, capacity rates, and process performance information. Alternatives under consideration can be compared and modified without high financial, personal, and customer costs to the healthcare operation. The knowledge gained from each alternative's simulation response variables can be evaluated against set criteria, the status quo, and each other to determine the best option. Current automation systems and software products allow decision makers to use this tool without investing resources in errant options. A simulation project strategy with examples and a case study of change and renovation of a family practice clinic are provided. PMID:10350840

  18. Online Produced Water Treatment Catalog and Decision Tool

    SciTech Connect

    J. Arthur

    2012-03-31

    The objective of this project was to create an internet-based Water Treatment Technology Catalog and Decision Tool that will increase production, decrease costs and enhance environmental protection. This is to be accomplished by pairing an operator's water treatment cost and capacity needs to specific water treatments. This project cataloged existing and emerging produced water treatment technologies and allows operators to identify the most cost-effective approaches for managing their produced water. The tool captures the cost and capabilities of each technology and the disposal and beneficial use options for each region. The tool then takes location, chemical composition, and volumetric data for the operator's water and identifies the most cost effective treatment options for that water. Regulatory requirements or limitations for each location are also addressed. The Produced Water Treatment Catalog and Decision Tool efficiently matches industry decision makers in unconventional natural gas basins with: 1) appropriate and applicable water treatment technologies for their project, 2) relevant information on regulatory and legal issues that may impact the success of their project, and 3) potential beneficial use demands specific to their project area. To ensure the success of this project, it was segmented into seven tasks conducted in three phases over a three year period. The tasks were overseen by a Project Advisory Council (PAC) made up of stakeholders including state and federal agency representatives and industry representatives. ALL Consulting has made the catalog and decision tool available on the Internet for the final year of the project. The second quarter of the second budget period, work was halted based on the February 18, 2011 budget availability; however previous project deliverables were submitted on time and the deliverables for Task 6 and 7 were completed ahead of schedule. Thus the application and catalog were deployed to the public Internet

  19. An Advanced Decision Support Tool for Electricity Infrastructure Operations

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Yousu; Huang, Zhenyu; Wong, Pak C.; Mackey, Patrick S.; Allwardt, Craig H.; Ma, Jian; Greitzer, Frank L.

    2010-01-31

    Electricity infrastructure, as one of the most critical infrastructures in the U.S., plays an important role in modern societies. Its failure would lead to significant disruption of people’s lives, industry and commercial activities, and result in massive economic losses. Reliable operation of electricity infrastructure is an extremely challenging task because human operators need to consider thousands of possible configurations in near real-time to choose the best option and operate the network effectively. In today’s practice, electricity infrastructure operation is largely based on operators’ experience with very limited real-time decision support, resulting in inadequate management of complex predictions and the inability to anticipate, recognize, and respond to situations caused by human errors, natural disasters, or cyber attacks. Therefore, a systematic approach is needed to manage the complex operational paradigms and choose the best option in a near-real-time manner. This paper proposes an advanced decision support tool for electricity infrastructure operations. The tool has the functions of turning large amount of data into actionable information to help operators monitor power grid status in real time; performing trend analysis to indentify system trend at the regional level or system level to help the operator to foresee and discern emergencies, studying clustering analysis to assist operators to identify the relationships between system configurations and affected assets, and interactively evaluating the alternative remedial actions to aid operators to make effective and timely decisions. This tool can provide significant decision support on electricity infrastructure operations and lead to better reliability in power grids. This paper presents examples with actual electricity infrastructure data to demonstrate the capability of this tool.

  20. Demonstration of Decision Support Tools for Sustainable Development

    SciTech Connect

    Shropshire, David Earl; Jacobson, Jacob Jordan; Berrett, Sharon; Cobb, D. A.; Worhach, P.

    2000-11-01

    The Demonstration of Decision Support Tools for Sustainable Development project integrated the Bechtel/Nexant Industrial Materials Exchange Planner and the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory System Dynamic models, demonstrating their capabilities on alternative fuel applications in the Greater Yellowstone-Teton Park system. The combined model, called the Dynamic Industrial Material Exchange, was used on selected test cases in the Greater Yellow Teton Parks region to evaluate economic, environmental, and social implications of alternative fuel applications, and identifying primary and secondary industries. The test cases included looking at compressed natural gas applications in Teton National Park and Jackson, Wyoming, and studying ethanol use in Yellowstone National Park and gateway cities in Montana. With further development, the system could be used to assist decision-makers (local government, planners, vehicle purchasers, and fuel suppliers) in selecting alternative fuels, vehicles, and developing AF infrastructures. The system could become a regional AF market assessment tool that could help decision-makers understand the behavior of the AF market and conditions in which the market would grow. Based on this high level market assessment, investors and decision-makers would become more knowledgeable of the AF market opportunity before developing detailed plans and preparing financial analysis.

  1. Human Decision Processes: Implications for SSA Support Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picciano, P.

    2013-09-01

    Despite significant advances in computing power and artificial intelligence (AI), few critical decisions are made without a human decision maker in the loop. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) missions are both critical and complex, typically adhering to the human-in-the-loop (HITL) model. The collection of human operators injects a needed diversity of expert knowledge, experience, and authority required to successfully fulfill SSA tasking. A wealth of literature on human decision making exists citing myriad empirical studies and offering a varied set of prescriptive and descriptive models of judgment and decision making (Hastie & Dawes, 2001; Baron, 2000). Many findings have been proven sufficiently robust to allow information architects or system/interface designers to take action to improve decision processes. For the purpose of discussion, these concepts are bifurcated in two groups: 1) vulnerabilities to mitigate, and 2) capabilities to augment. These vulnerabilities and capabilities refer specifically to the decision process and should not be confused with a shortcoming or skill of a specific human operator. Thus the framing of questions and orders, the automated tools with which to collaborate, priming and contextual data, and the delivery of information all play a critical role in human judgment and choice. Evaluating the merits of any decision can be elusive; in order to constrain this discussion, ‘rational choice' will tend toward the economic model characteristics such as maximizing utility and selection consistency (e.g., if A preferred to B, and B preferred to C, than A should be preferred to C). Simple decision models often encourage one to list the pros and cons of a decision, perhaps use a weighting schema, but one way or another weigh the future benefit (or harm) of making a selection. The result (sought by the rationalist models) should drive toward higher utility. Despite notable differences in researchers' theses (to be discussed in the full

  2. Conceptual air sparging decision tool in support of the development of an air sparging optimization decision tool

    SciTech Connect

    1995-09-01

    The enclosed document describes a conceptual decision tool (hereinafter, Tool) for determining applicability of and for optimizing air sparging systems. The Tool was developed by a multi-disciplinary team of internationally recognized experts in air sparging technology, lead by a group of project and task managers at Parsons Engineering Science, Inc. (Parsons ES). The team included Mr. Douglas Downey and Dr. Robert Hinchee of Parsons ES, Dr. Paul Johnson of Arizona State University, Dr. Richard Johnson of Oregon Graduate Institute, and Mr. Michael Marley of Envirogen, Inc. User Community Panel Review was coordinated by Dr. Robert Siegrist of Colorado School of Mines (also of Oak Ridge National Laboratory) and Dr. Thomas Brouns of Battelle/Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The Tool is intended to provide guidance to field practitioners and environmental managers for evaluating the applicability and optimization of air sparging as remedial action technique.

  3. Intelligent decision support tool for supply chain planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dong; Barnes, Cathy; Axtell, C.; McKay, Alison; de Pennington, Alan

    2001-10-01

    A decision support system using extended quality function deployment model (EQFDM) and internet application for manufacturing supply chain (SC) planning has been developed in this research. In this paper, a customer-focused quality evaluation approach, the EQFDM with internet application is employed to develop a coordinated planning system in SCs and assist mapping decisions of strategic planning into each partner's internal planning processes. To facilitate cooperation of SC partners in strategic planning, the hybrid planning process has been programmed into a web tool. The local planning has been supported by fuzzy logic approach so that approximate optimal solutions can be obtained avoiding difficulties of acquiring quantitative data. Through this intelligent Web based architecture, individual planning processes can be efficiently co-ordinated by means of efficient communication and visualizing consequences of a decision to be made on SC performance. Case study in a manufacturing (packaging) SC has been conducted to implement a scenario planning process for strategies on re-engineering the manufacturing SC. The research result shows that the intelligent system could be a promising tool for assisting strategic planning in a SC cooperation context.

  4. A Customized Drought Decision Support Tool for Hsinchu Science Park

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Jung; Tien, Yu-Chuan; Lin, Hsuan-Te; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Tung, Ching-Pin

    2016-04-01

    Climate change creates more challenges for water resources management. Due to the lack of sufficient precipitation in Taiwan in fall of 2014, many cities and counties suffered from water shortage during early 2015. Many companies in Hsinchu Science Park were significantly influenced and realized that they need a decision support tool to help them managing water resources. Therefore, a customized computer program was developed, which is capable of predicting the future status of public water supply system and water storage of factories when the water rationing is announced by the government. This program presented in this study for drought decision support (DDSS) is a customized model for a semiconductor company in the Hsinchu Science Park. The DDSS is programmed in Java which is a platform-independent language. System requirements are any PC with the operating system above Windows XP and an installed Java SE Runtime Environment 7. The DDSS serves two main functions. First function is to predict the future storage of Baoshan Reservoir and Second Baoshan Reservoir, so to determine the time point of water use restriction in Hsinchu Science Park. Second function is to use the results to help the company to make decisions to trigger their response plans. The DDSS can conduct real-time scenario simulations calculating the possible storage of water tank for each factory with pre-implementation and post-implementation of those response plans. In addition, DDSS can create reports in Excel to help decision makers to compare results between different scenarios.

  5. A Flight Deck Decision Support Tool for Autonomous Airborne Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ballin, Mark G.; Sharma, Vivek; Vivona, Robert A.; Johnson, Edward J.; Ramiscal, Ermin

    2002-01-01

    NASA is developing a flight deck decision support tool to support research into autonomous operations in a future distributed air/ground traffic management environment. This interactive real-time decision aid, referred to as the Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP), will enable the flight crew to plan autonomously in the presence of dense traffic and complex flight management constraints. In assisting the flight crew, the AOP accounts for traffic flow management and airspace constraints, schedule requirements, weather hazards, aircraft operational limits, and crew or airline flight-planning goals. This paper describes the AOP and presents an overview of functional and implementation design considerations required for its development. Required AOP functionality is described, its application in autonomous operations research is discussed, and a prototype software architecture for the AOP is presented.

  6. Decision aid tools to support women's decision making in pregnancy and birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Dugas, Marylène; Shorten, Allison; Dubé, Eric; Wassef, Maggy; Bujold, Emmanuel; Chaillet, Nils

    2012-06-01

    Support for a model of shared medical decision making, where women and their care providers discuss risks and benefits of their different options, reveal their preferences, and jointly make a decision, is a growing expectation in obstetric care. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of different decision aid tools compared to regular care for women facing several options in the specific field of obstetric care. We included published studies about interventions designed to aid mothers' decision making and provide information about obstetrical treatment or screening options. Following a search of electronic databases for articles published in English and French from 1994 to 2010, we found ten studies that met the inclusion criteria. In this systematic review and meta-analysis we found that all decision aid tools, except for Decision Trees, facilitated significant increases in knowledge. The Computer-based Information Tool, the Decision Analysis Tools, Individual Counseling and Group Counseling intervention presented significant results in reducing anxiety levels. The Decision Analysis Tools and the Computer-based Information tool were associated with a reduction in levels of decisional conflict. The Decision Analysis Tool was the only tool that presented evidence of an impact on the final choice and final outcome. Decision aid tools can assist health professionals to provide information and counseling about choices during pregnancy and support women in shared decision making. The choice of a specific tool should depend on resources available to support their use as well as the specific decisions being faced by women, their health care setting and providers. PMID:22475401

  7. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  8. Decision support tools for environmentally safe use of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Doruchowski, G; Balsari, P; Marucco, P; Herbst, A; Wehmann, H-J; Roettele, M; Gil, E; Codis, S; Pauwelyn, E

    2013-01-01

    Prevention of environmental risk due to pesticide application is demanded by EU legislation regarding water and crop protection issues. The pesticide users are required to take responsibility for the environmental consequences of applications. Therefore they need to make responsible decisions at both strategic and tactical level. The first one is a long term decision on selection of equipment, and the other applies to decisions on use of equipment in actual meteorological and environmental situation at any time when treatment is needed. In order to assist the user to make proper decisions the decision support tools were developed in form of web-based applications: EOS - Environmentally Optimised Sprayer; DET--Drift Evaluation Tool. EOS performs evaluation of the sprayer in terms of its risk mitigation potential based on the technical solutions present on the sprayer and selected by the user. EOS has been designed as a stepwise structured questionnaire, divided in sections representing different sources of pollution, i.e. RISK AREAS (step 1): Inside contamination; outside contamination; Filling; Spray Loss (Drift); Remnants. Within each RISK AREA there were identified PROBLEMS (step 2) to be solved by different TECHNOLOGIES (step 3), evaluated in different ASPECTS (step 4) when the user selects TECHNICAL SOLUTION (step 5) used on the sprayer. The items of steps 1-4 were assigned weights (%) and the items of TECHNICAL SOLUTIONs were scored from 0 to 10 (10 = best in class). This stepwise approach and valuation of items allows for calculating the effective score of each individual TECHNICAL SOLUTION in terms of its risk mitigation potential. The sum of these individual scores related to the final score of environmentally optimised sprayer gives the evaluated sprayer's EOS index (%) expressing the environmental value of the sprayer. DET performs evaluation of drift risk in actual situation, and proposes measures to mitigate this risk, helping the operator to make

  9. Facilitating knowledge transfer: decision support tools in environment and health

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    The HENVINET Health and Environment Network aimed to enhance the use of scientific knowledge in environmental health for policy making. One of the goals was to identify and evaluate Decision Support Tools (DST) in current use. Special attention was paid to four “priority” health issues: asthma and allergies, cancer, neurodevelopment disorders, and endocrine disruptors. We identified a variety of tools that are used for decision making at various levels and by various stakeholders. We developed a common framework for information acquisition about DSTs, translated this to a database structure and collected the information in an online Metadata Base (MDB). The primary product is an open access web-based MDB currently filled with 67 DSTs, accessible through the HENVINET networking portal http://www.henvinet.eu and http://henvinet.nilu.no. Quality assurance and control of the entries and evaluation of requirements to use the DSTs were also a focus of the work. The HENVINET DST MDB is an open product that enables the public to get basic information about the DSTs, and to search the DSTs using pre-designed attributes or free text. Registered users are able to 1) review and comment on existing DSTs; 2) evaluate each DST’s functionalities, and 3) add new DSTs, or change the entry for their own DSTs. Assessment of the available 67 DSTs showed: 1) more than 25% of the DSTs address only one pollution source; 2) 25% of the DSTs address only one environmental stressor; 3) almost 50% of the DSTs are only applied to one disease; 4) 41% of the DSTs can only be applied to one decision making area; 5) 60% of the DSTs’ results are used only by national authority and/or municipality/urban level administration; 6) almost half of the DSTs are used only by environmental professionals and researchers. This indicates that there is a need to develop DSTs covering an increasing number of pollution sources, environmental stressors and health end points, and considering links to other

  10. Facilitating knowledge transfer: decision support tools in environment and health.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hai-Ying; Bartonova, Alena; Neofytou, Panagiotis; Yang, Aileen; Kobernus, Michael J; Negrenti, Emanuele; Housiadas, Christos

    2012-01-01

    The HENVINET Health and Environment Network aimed to enhance the use of scientific knowledge in environmental health for policy making. One of the goals was to identify and evaluate Decision Support Tools (DST) in current use. Special attention was paid to four "priority" health issues: asthma and allergies, cancer, neurodevelopment disorders, and endocrine disruptors.We identified a variety of tools that are used for decision making at various levels and by various stakeholders. We developed a common framework for information acquisition about DSTs, translated this to a database structure and collected the information in an online Metadata Base (MDB).The primary product is an open access web-based MDB currently filled with 67 DSTs, accessible through the HENVINET networking portal http://www.henvinet.eu and http://henvinet.nilu.no. Quality assurance and control of the entries and evaluation of requirements to use the DSTs were also a focus of the work. The HENVINET DST MDB is an open product that enables the public to get basic information about the DSTs, and to search the DSTs using pre-designed attributes or free text. Registered users are able to 1) review and comment on existing DSTs; 2) evaluate each DST's functionalities, and 3) add new DSTs, or change the entry for their own DSTs. Assessment of the available 67 DSTs showed: 1) more than 25% of the DSTs address only one pollution source; 2) 25% of the DSTs address only one environmental stressor; 3) almost 50% of the DSTs are only applied to one disease; 4) 41% of the DSTs can only be applied to one decision making area; 5) 60% of the DSTs' results are used only by national authority and/or municipality/urban level administration; 6) almost half of the DSTs are used only by environmental professionals and researchers. This indicates that there is a need to develop DSTs covering an increasing number of pollution sources, environmental stressors and health end points, and considering links to other 'Driving

  11. New decision support tool for acute lymphoblastic leukemia classification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madhukar, Monica; Agaian, Sos; Chronopoulos, Anthony T.

    2012-03-01

    In this paper, we build up a new decision support tool to improve treatment intensity choice in childhood ALL. The developed system includes different methods to accurately measure furthermore cell properties in microscope blood film images. The blood images are exposed to series of pre-processing steps which include color correlation, and contrast enhancement. By performing K-means clustering on the resultant images, the nuclei of the cells under consideration are obtained. Shape features and texture features are then extracted for classification. The system is further tested on the classification of spectra measured from the cell nuclei in blood samples in order to distinguish normal cells from those affected by Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia. The results show that the proposed system robustly segments and classifies acute lymphoblastic leukemia based on complete microscopic blood images.

  12. NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

    2013-12-01

    provision of information that will help guide long-term preparedness for severe weather events and extreme conditions as well as climate variability and change GFCS recently summarized examples of existing initiatives to advance provision of climate services in the 2012 publication Climate ExChange. In this publication, NWS introduced the new Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), a tool that is used to conduct local climate studies that are needed to create efficient and reliable guidance for DSS. LCAT allows for analyzing trends in local climate variables and identifying local impacts of climate variability (e.g., ENSO) on weather and water conditions. In addition to LCAT, NWS, working in partnership with the North East Regional Climate center, released xmACIS version 2, a climate data mining tool, for NWS field operations. During this talk we will demonstrate LCAT and xmACIS as well as outline several examples of their application to DSS and its potential use for achieving GFCS goals. The examples include LCAT-based temperature analysis for energy decisions, guidance on weather and water events leading to increased algal blooms and red tide months in advance, local climate sensitivities to droughts, probabilities of hot/cold conditions and their potential impacts on agriculture and fish kills or fish stress.

  13. [Health Impact Assessment: opportunity for participative decision-making or persuasive tool for decisions already taken?].

    PubMed

    Sturloni, Giancarlo

    2016-01-01

    The Health Impact Assessment (HIA) has already been tested in dozens of nations, including Italy, and the reflection is now mature enough to allow a first evaluation of its effective capacity to offer an inclusive tool for prevention. The analysis focuses in particular on the HIA ability to address, through a participatory approach, one of its founding values: the democratic nature of decisions with an impact on public health. In most cases, the experiments carried out so far seem to be disappointing: the participation is often absent or performed in a rhetorical form. Sometimes the HIA has even been used in an instrumental way to justify decisions already taken, with the only result to further erode the credibility of experts and institutions. In this work, however, the author will try to show how, on the contrary, a greater involvement in the evaluation and decision-making processes could improve the effectiveness of HIA in terms of prevention, while at the same time promoting a relationship of trust between experts, institutions, and citizens on which to establish an ecologically and socially sustainable development. PMID:27290891

  14. Teaching the Tools of Pharmaceutical Care Decision-Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rittenhouse, Brian E.

    1994-01-01

    A method of decision-analysis in pharmaceutical care that integrates epidemiology and economics is presented, including an example illustrating both the deceptive nature of medical decision making and the power of decision analysis. Principles in determining both general and specific probabilities of interest and use of decision trees for…

  15. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: JOURNAL ARTICLE

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL-CIN-1351 Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. Risk Analysis 600/R/01/104, Available: on internet, www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/Pubs/600R01104, [NET]. 03/07/2001 D...

  16. Indigenous knowledge as decision support tool in rainwater harvesting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mbilinyi, B. P.; Tumbo, S. D.; Mahoo, H. F.; Senkondo, E. M.; Hatibu, N.

    Rainfall patterns in semi-arid areas are typically highly variable, both spatially and temporally. As a result, people who rely completely on rainwater for their survival have over the centuries developed indigenous knowledge/techniques to harvest rainwater. These traditional water-harvesting systems have been sustainable for centuries. The reason for this is that they are compatible with local lifestyles, local institutional patterns and local social systems. In order to develop sustainable strategies, it is therefore important to take into account of, and learn from, what local people already know and do, and to build on this. This paper explores how indigenous knowledge is used by farmers in the Makanya catchment, Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania to identify potential sites for rainwater harvesting (RWH). The paper draws on participatory research methods including focus group discussions, key informant interviews, field visits and participatory workshops. Initial findings indicate that farmers do hold a substantial amount of knowledge about the resources around them. As there are spatially typical aspects to indigenous knowledge, it could be extrapolated over a wider geographic extent. From the preliminary findings, it is being recommended that geographic information system (GIS) could be an important tool to collect and upscale the utility of diverse indigenous knowledge in the decision-making process.

  17. Decision support and data warehousing tools boost competitive advantage.

    PubMed

    Waldo, B H

    1998-01-01

    The ability to communicate across the care continuum is fast becoming an integral component of the successful health enterprise. As integrated delivery systems are formed and patient care delivery is restructured, health care professionals must be able to distribute, access, and evaluate information across departments and care settings. The Aberdeen Group, a computer and communications research and consulting organization, believes that "the single biggest challenge for next-generation health care providers is to improve on how they consolidate and manage information across the continuum of care. This involves building a strategic warehouse of clinical and financial information that can be shared and leveraged by health care professionals, regardless of the location or type of care setting" (Aberdeen Group, Inc., 1997). The value and importance of data and systems integration are growing. Organizations that create a strategy and implement DSS tools to provide decision-makers with the critical information they need to face the competition and maintain quality and costs will have the advantage. PMID:9592525

  18. FRAMEWORK FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION-MAKING, FRED: A TOOL FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY-PREFERABLE PURCHASING

    EPA Science Inventory

    In support of the Environmentally Preferable Purchasing Program of the US EPA, the Systems Analysis Branch has developed a decision-making tool based on life cycle assessment. This tool, the Framework for Responsible Environmental Decision-making or FRED streamlines LCA by choosi...

  19. FRAMEWORK FOR RESPONSIBLE DECISION-MAKING (FRED): A TOOL FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY PREFERABLE PRODUCTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In support of the Environmentally Preferable Purchasing Program of the USEPA, a decision-making tool based on life cycle assessment has been developed. This tool, the Framework for Responsible Environmental Decision-making or FRED, streamlines LCA by choosing a minimum list of im...

  20. A decision tool for selecting trench cap designs

    SciTech Connect

    Paige, G.B.; Stone, J.J.; Lane, L.J.

    1995-12-31

    A computer based prototype decision support system (PDSS) is being developed to assist the risk manager in selecting an appropriate trench cap design for waste disposal sites. The selection of the {open_quote}best{close_quote} design among feasible alternatives requires consideration of multiple and often conflicting objectives. The methodology used in the selection process consists of: selecting and parameterizing decision variables using data, simulation models, or expert opinion; selecting feasible trench cap design alternatives; ordering the decision variables and ranking the design alternatives. The decision model is based on multi-objective decision theory and uses a unique approach to order the decision variables and rank the design alternatives. Trench cap designs are evaluated based on federal regulations, hydrologic performance, cover stability and cost. Four trench cap designs, which were monitored for a four year period at Hill Air Force Base in Utah, are used to demonstrate the application of the PDSS and evaluate the results of the decision model. The results of the PDSS, using both data and simulations, illustrate the relative advantages of each of the cap designs and which cap is the {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} alternative for a given set of criteria and a particular importance order of those decision criteria.

  1. Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Issacci, F.; Paulos, T.; Jones, S.; Paxton, K.; Paul, M.

    1992-01-01

    Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

  2. Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cole, Rod; Green, Steve; Jardin, Matt; Schwartz, Barry; Benjamin, Stan

    2000-01-01

    The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an

  3. Comparison of risk-based decision-support systems for brownfield site rehabilitation: DESYRE and SADA applied to a Romanian case study.

    PubMed

    Stezar, I C; Pizzol, L; Critto, A; Ozunu, A; Marcomini, A

    2013-12-15

    Brownfield rehabilitation is an essential step for sustainable land-use planning and management in the European Union. In brownfield regeneration processes, the legacy contamination plays a significant role, firstly because of the persistent contaminants in soil or groundwater which extends the existing hazards and risks well into the future; and secondly, problems from historical contamination are often more difficult to manage than contamination caused by new activities. Due to the complexity associated with the management of brownfield site rehabilitation, Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been developed to support problem holders and stakeholders in the decision-making process encompassing all phases of the rehabilitation. This paper presents a comparative study between two DSSs, namely SADA (Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance) and DESYRE (Decision Support System for the Requalification of Contaminated Sites), with the main objective of showing the benefits of using DSSs to introduce and process data and then to disseminate results to different stakeholders involved in the decision-making process. For this purpose, a former car manufacturing plant located in the Brasov area, Central Romania, contaminated chiefly by heavy metals and total petroleum hydrocarbons, has been selected as a case study to apply the two examined DSSs. Major results presented here concern the analysis of the functionalities of the two DSSs in order to identify similarities, differences and complementarities and, thus, to provide an indication of the most suitable integration options. PMID:24211567

  4. Using ITP Decision Tools to Save Energy Now

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2006-02-01

    This DOE Industrial Technologies Program fact sheet describes how the program's software tools and information help manufacturers save energy and money, increase productivity, and improve reliability.

  5. Visualization method and tool for interactive learning of large decision trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Trong Dung; Ho, TuBao

    2002-03-01

    When learning from large datasets, decision tree induction programs often produce very large trees. How to visualize efficiently trees in the learning process, particularly large trees, is still questionable and currently requires efficient tools. This paper presents a visualization method and tool for interactive learning of large decision trees, that includes a new visualization technique called T2.5D (stands for Tress 2.5 Dimensions). After a brief discussion on requirements for tree visualizers and related work, the paper focuses on presenting developing techniques for the issues (1) how to visualize efficiently large decision trees; and (2) how to visualize decision trees in the learning process.

  6. Designing Tools for Supporting User Decision-Making in e-Commerce

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutcliffe, Alistair; Al-Qaed, Faisal

    The paper describes a set of tools designed to support a variety of user decision-making strategies. The tools are complemented by an online advisor so they can be adapted to different domains and users can be guided to adopt appropriate tools for different choices in e-commerce, e.g. purchasing high-value products, exploring product fit to users’ needs, or selecting products which satisfy requirements. The tools range from simple recommenders to decision support by interactive querying and comparison matrices. They were evaluated in a scenario-based experiment which varied the users’ task and motivation, with and without an advisor agent. The results show the tools and advisor were effective in supporting users and agreed with the predictions of ADM (adaptive decision making) theory, on which the design of the tools was based.

  7. System and method for integrating hazard-based decision making tools and processes

    DOEpatents

    Hodgin, C. Reed

    2012-03-20

    A system and method for inputting, analyzing, and disseminating information necessary for identified decision-makers to respond to emergency situations. This system and method provides consistency and integration among multiple groups, and may be used for both initial consequence-based decisions and follow-on consequence-based decisions. The system and method in a preferred embodiment also provides tools for accessing and manipulating information that are appropriate for each decision-maker, in order to achieve more reasoned and timely consequence-based decisions. The invention includes processes for designing and implementing a system or method for responding to emergency situations.

  8. Computer-based tools for decision support at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Doctor, P.G.; Mahaffey, J.A.; Cowley, P.J.; Freshley, M.D.; Hassig, N.L.; Brothers, J.W.; Glantz, C.S.; Strachan, D.M.

    1992-11-01

    To help integrate activities in the environmental restoration and waste management mission of the Hanford Site, the Hanford Integrated Planning Project (HIPP) was established and funded by the US Department of Energy. The project is divided into three key program elements, the first focusing on an explicit, defensible and comprehensive method for evaluating technical options. Based on the premise that computer technology can be used to support the decision-making process and facilitate integration among programs and activities, the Decision Support Tools Task was charged with assessing the status of computer technology for those purposes at the Site. The task addressed two types of tools: tools need to provide technical information and management support tools. Technical tools include performance and risk assessment models, information management systems, data and the computer infrastructure to supports models, data, and information management systems. Management decision support tools are used to synthesize information at a high` level to assist with making decisions. The major conclusions resulting from the assessment are that there is much technical information available, but it is not reaching the decision-makers in a form to be used. Many existing tools provide components that are needed to integrate site activities; however, some components are missing and, more importantly, the ``glue`` or connections to tie the components together to answer decision-makers questions is largely absent. Top priority should be given to decision support tools that support activities given in the TPA. Other decision tools are needed to facilitate and support the environmental restoration and waste management mission.

  9. Computer-based tools for decision support at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Doctor, P.G.; Mahaffey, J.A.; Cowley, P.J.; Freshley, M.D.; Hassig, N.L.; Brothers, J.W.; Glantz, C.S.; Strachan, D.M.

    1992-11-01

    To help integrate activities in the environmental restoration and waste management mission of the Hanford Site, the Hanford Integrated Planning Project (HIPP) was established and funded by the US Department of Energy. The project is divided into three key program elements, the first focusing on an explicit, defensible and comprehensive method for evaluating technical options. Based on the premise that computer technology can be used to support the decision-making process and facilitate integration among programs and activities, the Decision Support Tools Task was charged with assessing the status of computer technology for those purposes at the Site. The task addressed two types of tools: tools need to provide technical information and management support tools. Technical tools include performance and risk assessment models, information management systems, data and the computer infrastructure to supports models, data, and information management systems. Management decision support tools are used to synthesize information at a high' level to assist with making decisions. The major conclusions resulting from the assessment are that there is much technical information available, but it is not reaching the decision-makers in a form to be used. Many existing tools provide components that are needed to integrate site activities; however, some components are missing and, more importantly, the glue'' or connections to tie the components together to answer decision-makers questions is largely absent. Top priority should be given to decision support tools that support activities given in the TPA. Other decision tools are needed to facilitate and support the environmental restoration and waste management mission.

  10. Using a Group Decision Support System as a Teaching Tool.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aiken, Milam W.

    1992-01-01

    Describes a typical Group Decision Support System (GDSS) in use at the University of Mississippi and potential uses of a GDSS in seminars, interactive testing, lectures, foreign language study, and in communication with deaf or mute students. Benefits are noted, including increased participation, group synergy, and automated record keeping. (27…

  11. ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURE FINDER: A REMOTE SENSING DECISION SUPPORT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Land cover maps are essential to sound environmental stewardship and EPA’s mission to protect human health and the environment, but existing maps are not always sufficiently current, detailed, or appropriate for a given application. Consequently, we are developing a decision sup...

  12. Data access and decision tools for coastal water resources management

    EPA Science Inventory

    US EPA has supported the development of numerous models and tools to support implementation of environmental regulations. However, transfer of knowledge and methods from detailed technical models to support practical problem solving by local communities and watershed or coastal ...

  13. The Integrated Medical Model: A Decision Support Tool for In-flight Crew Health Care

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, Doug

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the development of an Integrated Medical Model (IMM) decision support tool for in-flight crew health care safety. Clinical methods, resources, and case scenarios are also addressed.

  14. Implementation and Testing of Interdisciplinary Decision Support Tools to Standardize Discharge Planning

    PubMed Central

    Bowles, Kathryn H.; Holland, Diane E.; Potashnik, Sheryl L.

    2012-01-01

    Improving transitions in care is an international priority. In acute care, this complex process starts upon admission and requires multiple interventions to appropriately transition patients from one setting to the next. Within this multi-step process are two important decision points that warrant standardization and support. Our research teams have developed decision support tools that meet this critical need. The Early Screen for Discharge Planning (ESDP) and the Discharge Decision Support System (D2S2) bring evidence based, interdisciplinary decision support to two common and important decisions. The purpose of this paper is to share information about “real life” experiences in implementing decision support covering the development and use of the tools, advising about implementation considerations, making suggestions for automating the process, and sharing findings from our recent implementation study. PMID:24199045

  15. A new tool for analysis of cleanup criteria decisions.

    PubMed

    Klemic, Gladys A; Bailey, Paul; Elcock, Deborah

    2003-08-01

    Radionuclides and other hazardous materials resulting from processes used in nuclear weapons production contaminate soil, groundwater, and buildings around the United States. Cleanup criteria for environmental contaminants are agreed on prior to remediation and underpin the scope and legacy of the cleanup process. Analysis of cleanup criteria can be relevant for future agreements and may also provide insight into a complex decision making process where science and policy issues converge. An Internet accessible database has been established to summarize cleanup criteria and related factors involved in U.S. Department of Energy remediation decisions. This paper reports on a new user interface for the database that is designed to integrate related information into graphic displays and tables with interactive features that allow exploratory data analysis of cleanup criteria. Analysis of 137Cs in surface soil is presented as an example. PMID:12865746

  16. ACED IT: A Tool for Improved Ethical and Moral Decision-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kreitler, Crystal Mata; Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Rodarte, Allen M.; Piñón DuMond, Rebecca

    2014-01-01

    Numerous examples of unethical organizational decision-making highlighted in the media have led many to question the general moral perception and ethical judgments of individuals. The present study examined two forms of a straightforward ethical decision-making (EDM) tool (ACED IT cognitive map) that could be a relatively simple instrument for…

  17. A Web-Based Tool to Support Data-Based Early Intervention Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buzhardt, Jay; Greenwood, Charles; Walker, Dale; Carta, Judith; Terry, Barbara; Garrett, Matthew

    2010-01-01

    Progress monitoring and data-based intervention decision making have become key components of providing evidence-based early childhood special education services. Unfortunately, there is a lack of tools to support early childhood service providers' decision-making efforts. The authors describe a Web-based system that guides service providers…

  18. Assessing Sustainability of Coral Reef Ecosystem Services using a Spatially-Explicit Decision Support Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    Forecasting and communicating the potential outcomes of decision options requires support tools that aid in evaluating alternative scenarios in a user-friendly context and that highlight variables relevant to the decision options and valuable stakeholders. Envision is a GIS-base...

  19. Decision Analysis Tool to Compare Energy Pathways for Transportation

    SciTech Connect

    Bloyd, Cary N.; Stork, Kevin

    2011-02-01

    With the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, oil imports, and energy costs, a wide variety of automotive technologies are proposed to replace the traditional gasoline-powered internal combustion engine (g-ICE). A prototype model, Analytica Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM), has been developed using the Analytica decision modeling environment, visualizing the structure as a hierarchy of influence diagrams. The report summarized the FY2010 ATEAM accomplishments.

  20. THE COATINGS GUIDE: AN INTEGRATED TOOL FOR COATINGS DECISIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Coatings Guide, formerly known as the Coatings Alternative Guide (CAGE), is a free Internet pollution prevention tool designed to help small-business coaters of metal and plastic substrates identify alternatives as potential drop-in replacements for existing operations. As sh...

  1. Doing Academic Planning: Effective Tools for Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nedwek, Brian P., Ed.

    This sourcebook was designed to provide academic planners with the tools to perform core functions and activities that facilitate the transformation of higher education institutions from provider-centered cultures and organizations to learner-centered franchises. The readings examine partnerships and alliances needed for higher education to…

  2. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS (EPA/600/R-01/104)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental decision support tools often provide information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. Medical decision making and health economics offer many metrics that allow aggregation of these different health outcomes. Th...

  3. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Mackey, H.E.; Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D.

    1996-05-31

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object`s geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object`s orientation

  4. Assembling Tools and Data for Climate Model Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batcheller, A. L.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) effort has identified nine areas in which society benefits from appropriate environmental information. We have targeted specific issues within these societal benefit areas by determining appropriate data sets needed and transforming these data into information useable by decision makers. Here we describe the service-oriented architecture that allows us to ingest real-time or static data into a database with a spatial data engine, make appropriate manipulations to the data using domain knowledge relevant to the problem, and expose the data as services. We then build custom portals using a library of common widgets to display and overlay the data for users to analyze. By using portals and a service-oriented architecture we can reuse services and widgets to rapidly assemble a view of geographic data, and assist decision-makers in applying and interpreting the latest scientific results. As a case study with our system, we have integrated data from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models, crop yields, and environmental thresholds for crops to present a first level analysis of the impact of climate change on key crops grown in Mexico. Knowledge about changes in the regions that are favorable for crop growth is important for many stakeholders, ranging from individual farmers, to governments, to scientists working to create new seed varieties. Our work also highlights research opportunities in climate science by identifying the types and resolution of parameters modeled.

  5. Enhancement of the EPA Stormwater BMP Decision-Support Tool (SUSTAIN)

    EPA Science Inventory

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been developing and improving a decision-support tool for placement of stormwater best management practices (BMPs) at strategic locations in urban watersheds. The tool is called the System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis...

  6. Enhancement of the EPA Stormwater BMP Decision-Support Tool (SUSTAIN) - slides

    EPA Science Inventory

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been developing and improving a decision-support tool for placement of stormwater best management practices (BMPs) at strategic locations in urban watersheds. The tool is called the System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis...

  7. U.S. CASE STUDIES USING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper provides an overview of some case studies using the recently completed muniicpal solid waste decision support tool (MSW-DST) in communities across the U.S. The purpose of the overview is to help illustrate the variety of potential applications of the tool. The methodolo...

  8. Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

    PubMed

    Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

    2015-03-01

    The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations. PMID:25479999

  9. Energy Signal Tool for Decision Support in Building Energy Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Henze, G. P.; Pavlak, G. S.; Florita, A. R.; Dodier, R. H.; Hirsch, A. I.

    2014-12-01

    A prototype energy signal tool is demonstrated for operational whole-building and system-level energy use evaluation. The purpose of the tool is to give a summary of building energy use which allows a building operator to quickly distinguish normal and abnormal energy use. Toward that end, energy use status is displayed as a traffic light, which is a visual metaphor for energy use that is either substantially different from expected (red and yellow lights) or approximately the same as expected (green light). Which light to display for a given energy end use is determined by comparing expected to actual energy use. As expected, energy use is necessarily uncertain; we cannot choose the appropriate light with certainty. Instead, the energy signal tool chooses the light by minimizing the expected cost of displaying the wrong light. The expected energy use is represented by a probability distribution. Energy use is modeled by a low-order lumped parameter model. Uncertainty in energy use is quantified by a Monte Carlo exploration of the influence of model parameters on energy use. Distributions over model parameters are updated over time via Bayes' theorem. The simulation study was devised to assess whole-building energy signal accuracy in the presence of uncertainty and faults at the submetered level, which may lead to tradeoffs at the whole-building level that are not detectable without submetering.

  10. The metabolic score: A decision making tool in diabetes care.

    PubMed

    Kalra, Sanjay; Gupta, Yashdeep

    2015-11-01

    The heterogeneity of diabetes mellitus, and the various metabolic abnormalities associated with it, are well known. Current management guidelines used to help choose glucose-lowering drugs in diabetes mellitus describe various drug classes in detail, but do not take the overall metabolic profile into consideration. To help physicians choose appropriate oral therapy, we propose a discrete metabolic score, based upon the presence and absence of metabolic comorbidities included in the definition of metabolic syndrome. This communication describes how to choose an appropriate oral antidiabetic drug using such a score. The metabolic score based decision making aid should be able to prove its utility in all health care settings, especially resource constrained societies. PMID:26564303

  11. Using decision analytic methods to assess the utility of family history tools.

    PubMed

    Tyagi, Anupam; Morris, Jill

    2003-02-01

    Family history may be a useful tool for identifying people at increased risk of disease and for developing targeted interventions for individuals at higher-than-average risk. This article addresses the issue of how to examine the utility of a family history tool for public health and preventive medicine. We propose the use of a decision analytic framework for the assessment of a family history tool and outline the major elements of a decision analytic approach, including analytic perspective, costs, outcome measurements, and data needed to assess the value of a family history tool. We describe the use of sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in parameter values and imperfect information. To illustrate the use of decision analytic methods to assess the value of family history, we present an example analysis based on using family history of colorectal cancer to improve rates of colorectal cancer screening. PMID:12568827

  12. Medical alert management: a real-time adaptive decision support tool to reduce alert fatigue.

    PubMed

    Lee, Eva K; Wu, Tsung-Lin; Senior, Tal; Jose, James

    2014-01-01

    With the adoption of electronic medical records (EMRs), drug safety alerts are increasingly recognized as valuable tools for reducing adverse drug events and improving patient safety. However, even with proper tuning of the EMR alert parameters, the volume of unfiltered alerts can be overwhelming to users. In this paper, we design an adaptive decision support tool in which past cognitive overriding decisions of users are learned, adapted and used for filtering actions to be performed on current alerts. The filters are designed and learned based on a moving time window, number of alerts, overriding rates, and monthly overriding fluctuations. Using alerts from two separate years to derive filters and test performance, predictive accuracy rates of 91.3%-100% are achieved. The moving time window works better than a static training approach. It allows continuous learning and capturing of the most recent decision characteristics and seasonal variations in drug usage. The decision support system facilitates filtering of non-essential alerts and adaptively learns critical alerts and highlights them prominently to catch providers' attention. The tool can be plugged into an existing EMR system as an add-on, allowing real-time decision support to users without interfering with existing EMR functionalities. By automatically filtering the alerts, the decision support tool mitigates alert fatigue and allows users to focus resources on potentially vital alerts, thus reducing the occurrence of adverse drug events. PMID:25954391

  13. Augmented cognition tool for rapid military decision making.

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Shawn Ellis; Bernard, Michael Lewis; Verzi, Stephen J.; Dubicka, Irene; Vineyard, Craig Michael

    2011-10-01

    This report describes the laboratory directed research and development work to model relevant areas of the brain that associate multi-modal information for long-term storage for the purpose of creating a more effective, and more automated, association mechanism to support rapid decision making. Using the biology and functionality of the hippocampus as an analogy or inspiration, we have developed an artificial neural network architecture to associate k-tuples (paired associates) of multimodal input records. The architecture is composed of coupled unimodal self-organizing neural modules that learn generalizations of unimodal components of the input record. Cross modal associations, stored as a higher-order tensor, are learned incrementally as these generalizations form. Graph algorithms are then applied to the tensor to extract multi-modal association networks formed during learning. Doing so yields a novel approach to data mining for knowledge discovery. This report describes the neurobiological inspiration, architecture, and operational characteristics of our model, and also provides a real world terrorist network example to illustrate the model's functionality.

  14. Risk profiling of cattle farms as a potential tool in risk-based surveillance for Mycobacterium bovis infection among cattle in tuberculosis-free areas.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro-Lima, Joao; Schwabenlander, Stacey; Oakes, Michael; Thompson, Beth; Wells, Scott J

    2016-06-15

    OBJECTIVE To develop a cattle herd risk-profiling system that could potentially inform risk-based surveillance strategies for Mycobacterium bovis infection in cattle and provide information that could be used to help direct resource allocation by a state agency for this purpose. DESIGN Cross-sectional study. SAMPLE Records for any size movement (importation) of cattle into Minnesota from other US states during 2009 (n = 7,185) and 2011 (8,107). PROCEDURES Data from certificates of veterinary inspection were entered into a spreadsheet. Movement data were summarized at premises and county levels, and for each level, the distribution of cattle moved and number of movements were evaluated. Risk profiling (assessment and categorization of risk for disease introduction) for each import movement was performed on the basis of known risk factors. Latent class analysis was used to assign movements to risk classifications with adjustment on the basis of expert opinions from personnel knowledgeable about bovine tuberculosis; these data were used to classify premises as very high, high, medium, or low risk for disease introduction. RESULTS In each year, approximately 1,500 premises imported cattle, typically beef and feeder types, with the peak of import movements during the fall season. The risk model identified 4 risk classes for cattle movements. Approximately 500 of the estimated 27,406 (2%) cattle premises in Minnesota were in the very high or high risk groups for either year; greatest density of these premises was in the southeast and southwest regions of the state. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE A risk-profiling approach was developed that can be applied in targeted surveillance efforts for bovine tuberculosis, particularly in disease-free areas. PMID:27270064

  15. Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

  16. Decision-support tools for the assessment process

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, Gene; Pelton, Mitch A.; Dorow, Kevin E.

    2004-06-14

    A new software system is under development that provides a framework to link disparate assessment software and databases for site-specific, regional, or national analyses. This system represents the merger of the Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES), which performs site-specific assessments, and Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) methodology, which performs regional and national assessments. This Merged System is an icon-driven, site-layout platform, which represents an interactive means by which the user graphically constructs a conceptualization of the problem by visually expressing the assessment, indicating sources of contamination, contaminant travel pathways through the environment, linkages between contamination and people or wildlife, and impacts associated with the contamination. It processes data as part of a systems-based assessment and is an open-architecture, object-oriented framework, which contains ''sockets'' for a collection of databases and computer codes that will transparently simulate elements of transport, exposure, and risk assessment, including contaminant source and release to and through overland soils, vadose and saturated zones, air, surface water, food supply, intake human health impacts, sensitivity/uncertainty, ecological impacts, with the ability to expand into areas including Geographical Information System (GIS), remediation technology, cost analysis, Data Quality Objectives, life-cycle management, and conceptual site design. A user can choose from a list of models, and the assessment path forward can be visually presented, which describes the models and their linkages from source through receptor to the decision-making endpoint.

  17. Development of patient decision support tools for motor neuron disease using stakeholder consultation: a study protocol

    PubMed Central

    Hogden, Anne; Greenfield, David; Caga, Jashelle; Cai, Xiongcai

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Motor neuron disease (MND) is a terminal, progressive, multisystem disorder. Well-timed decisions are key to effective symptom management. To date, there are few published decision support tools, also known as decision aids, to guide patients in making ongoing choices for symptom management and quality of life. This protocol is to develop and validate decision support tools for patients and families to use in conjunction with health professionals in MND multidisciplinary care. The tools will inform patients and families of the benefits and risks of each option, as well as the consequences of accepting or declining treatment. Methods and analysis The study is being conducted from June 2015 to May 2016, using a modified Delphi process. A 2-stage, 7-step process will be used to develop the tools, based on existing literature and stakeholder feedback. The first stage will be to develop the decision support tools, while the second stage will be to validate both the tools and the process used to develop them. Participants will form expert panels, to provide feedback on which the development and validation of the tools will be based. Participants will be drawn from patients with MND, family carers and health professionals, support association workers, peak body representatives, and MND and patient decision-making researchers. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for the study has been granted by Macquarie University Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC), approval number 5201500658. Knowledge translation will be conducted via publications, seminar and conference presentations to patients and families, health professionals and researchers. PMID:27053272

  18. Testing an Irrigation Decision Support Tool for California Specialty Crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, L.; Cahn, M.; Benzen, S.; Zaragoza, I.; Murphy, L.; Melton, F. S.; Martin, F.; Quackenbush, A.; Lockhart, T.

    2015-12-01

    Estimation of crop evapotranspiration supports efficiency of irrigation water management, which in turn can mitigate nitrate leaching, groundwater depletion, and provide energy savings. Past research in California and elsewhere has revealed strong relationships between photosynthetically active vegetation fraction (Fc) and crop evapotranspiration (ETc). Additional research has shown the potential of monitoring Fc by satellite remote sensing. The U.C. Cooperative Extension developed and operates CropManage (CM) as on-line database irrigation (and nitrogen) scheduling tool. CM accounts for the rapid growth and typically brief cycle of cool-season vegetables, where Fc and fraction of reference ET can change daily during canopy development. The model automates crop water requirement calculations based on reference ET data collected by California Dept. Water Resources. Empirically-derived equations are used to estimate daily Fc time-series for a given crop type primarily as a function of planting date and expected harvest date. An application programming interface (API) is under development to provide a check on modeled Fc of current crops and facilitate CM expansion to new crops. The API will enable CM to extract field scale Fc observations from NASA's Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS). SIMS is mainly Landsat based and currently monitors Fc over about 8 million irrigation acres statewide, with potential for adding data from ESA/Sentinel for improved temporal resolution. In the current study, a replicated irrigation trial was performed on romaine lettuce at the USDA Agricultural Research Station in Salinas, CA. CropManage recommendations were used to guide water treatments by drip irrigation at 50%, 75%, 100% ETc replacement levels, with an added treatment at 150% ET representing grower standard practice. Experimental results indicate that yields from the 100% and 150% treatments were not significantly different and were in-line with industry average, while

  19. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies’ business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and “what-if” scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results. PMID:26871694

  20. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

    PubMed

    Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results. PMID:26871694

  1. Variation in Anticoagulant Recommendations by the Guidelines and Decision Tools among Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Shewale, Anand; Johnson, Jill; Li, Chenghui; Nelsen, David; Martin, Bradley

    2015-01-01

    Published atrial fibrillation (AF) guidelines and decision tools offer oral anticoagulant (OAC) recommendations; however, they consider stroke and bleeding risk differently. The aims of our study are: (i) to compare the variation in OAC recommendations by the 2012 American College of Chest Physicians guidelines, the 2012 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines, the 2014 American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines and two published decision tools by Casciano and LaHaye; (ii) to compare the concordance with actual OAC use in the overall study population and the population stratified by stroke/bleed risk. A cross-sectional study using the 2001–2013 Lifelink claims data was used to contrast the treatment recommendations by these decision aids. CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED algorithms were used to stratify 15,129 AF patients into nine stroke/bleed risk groups to study the variation in treatment recommendations and concordance with actual OAC use/non-use. The AHA guidelines which were set to recommend OAC when CHA2DS2-VASc = 1 recommended OAC most often (86.30%) and the LaHaye tool recommended OAC the least often (14.91%). OAC treatment recommendations varied considerably when stroke risk was moderate or high (CHA2DS2-VASc > 0). Actual OAC use/non-use was highly discordant (>40%) with all of the guidelines or decision tools reflecting substantial opportunities to improve AF OAC decisions.

  2. Do choosing wisely tools meet criteria for patient decision aids? A descriptive analysis of patient materials

    PubMed Central

    Légaré, France; Hébert, Jessica; Goh, Larissa; Lewis, Krystina B; Leiva Portocarrero, Maria Ester; Robitaille, Hubert; Stacey, Dawn

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Choosing Wisely is a remarkable physician-led campaign to reduce unnecessary or harmful health services. Some of the literature identifies Choosing Wisely as a shared decision-making approach. We evaluated the patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada to determine whether they meet the criteria for shared decision-making tools known as patient decision aids. Design Descriptive analysis of all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials. Data source In May 2015, we selected all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials from its official website. Main outcomes and measures Four team members independently extracted characteristics of the English materials using the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) modified 16-item minimum criteria for qualifying and certifying patient decision aids. The research team discussed discrepancies between data extractors and reached a consensus. Descriptive analysis was conducted. Results Of the 24 patient materials assessed, 12 were about treatments, 11 were about screening and 1 was about prevention. The median score for patient materials using IPDAS criteria was 10/16 (range: 8–11) for screening topics and 6/12 (range: 6–9) for prevention and treatment topics. Commonly missed criteria were stating the decision (21/24 did not), providing balanced information on option benefits/harms (24/24 did not), citing evidence (24/24 did not) and updating policy (24/24 did not). Out of 24 patient materials, only 2 met the 6 IPDAS criteria to qualify as patient decision aids, and neither of these 2 met the 6 certifying criteria. Conclusions Patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada do not meet the IPDAS minimal qualifying or certifying criteria for patient decision aids. Modifications to the Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials would help to ensure that they qualify as patient decision aids and thus as more effective shared decision-making tools. PMID:27566638

  3. The contribution of science to risk-based decision-making: lessons from the development of full-scale treatment measures for acidic mine waters at Wheal Jane, UK.

    PubMed

    Younger, Paul L; Coulton, Richard H; Froggatt, Eric C

    2005-02-01

    The use of risk-based decision-making in environmental management is often assumed to rely primarily on the availability of robust scientific data and insights, while in practice socio-economic criteria are often of considerable importance. However, the relative contributions to decision-making made by scientific and socio-economic inputs are rarely assessed, and even less commonly reported. Such an assessment has been made for a major remediation project in southwest England, in which some 300 l/s of highly acidic, metalliferous mine waters are now being treated using oxidation and chemical neutralisation. In the process of reaching the decision to commission the treatment plant, a wide range of scientific studies were undertaken, including: biological impact assessments, hydrogeological investigations of the effect of pumping on the flooded mine system, and hydrological and geochemical characterisation, together with integrated catchment modelling, of pollutant sources and pathways. These investigations revealed that, despite the spectacular nature of the original mine water outburst in 1992, the ecology of the Fal estuary remains remarkably robust. No scientific evidence emerged of any grounds for concern over the estuarine ecology, even if mine water were left to flow untreated. However, a rare ecological resource known as "maerl" (a form of calcified seaweed) is harvested annually in the estuary, providing significant revenue to the local economy and underpinning the 'clean' image of local sea water. Social and environmental benefit surveys revealed strong public perceptions that any visible discoloration in the estuary must indicate a diminution in quality of the maerl, to the detriment of both the public image and economy of the area. This factor proved sufficient to justify the continued pump-and-treat operations at the mine site. Although the decisive factor in the end was socio-economic in nature, robust assessment of this factor could not have been made

  4. A decision-support tool for the formulation of orally active, poorly soluble compounds.

    PubMed

    Branchu, Sébastien; Rogueda, Philippe G; Plumb, A Philip; Cook, Walter G

    2007-10-01

    Physicochemical data for a set of potentially poorly soluble compounds was analysed in relation to suitable formulations for these compounds. Physical chemistry was found to be a key determinant of formulation class expressed in terms of conventional, solid dispersion, lipidic/surfactant, and crystalline nanoparticle systems. This relationship was used to build a decision-support tool aimed to guide formulation selection for poorly soluble compounds during product development. Tool components included a user interface, a database of compound cases together with known formulations, and predictive modules based on statistics, decision trees, and case-based reasoning. The tool was tested and exhibited significant and consistent predictive ability across testing conditions. This type of tool has the potential to improve the efficiency and predictability of the formulation development process. PMID:17689226

  5. A streamlined sustainability assessment tool for improved decision making in the urban water industry.

    PubMed

    Schulz, Matthias; Short, Michael D; Peters, Gregory M

    2012-01-01

    Water supply is a key consideration in sustainable urban planning. Ideally, detailed quantitative sustainability assessments are undertaken during the planning stage to inform the decision-making process. In reality, however, the significant time and cost associated with undertaking such detailed environmental and economic assessments is often cited as a barrier to wider implementation of these key decision support tools, particularly for decisions made at the local or regional government level. In an attempt to overcome this barrier of complexity, 4 water service providers in Melbourne, Australia, funded the development of a publicly available streamlined Environmental Sustainability Assessment Tool, which is aimed at a wide range of decision makers to assist them in broadening the type and number of water servicing options that can be considered for greenfield or backlog developments. The Environmental Sustainability Assessment Tool consists of a simple user interface and draws on life cycle inventory data to allow for rapid estimation of the environmental and economic performance of different water servicing scenarios. Scenario options can then be further prioritized by means of an interactive multicriteria analysis. The intent of this article is to identify the key issues to be considered in a streamlined sustainability assessment tool for the urban water industry, and to demonstrate the feasibility of generating accurate life cycle assessments and life cycle costings, using such a tool. We use a real-life case study example consisting of 3 separate scenarios for a planned urban development to show that this kind of tool can emulate life cycle assessments and life cycle costings outcomes obtained through more detailed studies. This simplified approach is aimed at supporting "sustainability thinking" early in the decision-making process, thereby encouraging more sustainable water and sewerage infrastructure solutions. PMID:21751340

  6. APPLICATION OF THE US DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR MATERIALS AND WASTE MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA¿s National Risk Management Research Laboratory has led the development of a municipal solid waste decision support tool (MSW-DST). The computer software can be used to calculate life-cycle environmental tradeoffs and full costs of different waste management plans or recycling...

  7. The Integrated Medical Model - A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles G.; Saile, Lynn; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2010-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight.

  8. Development of a forecasting tool to guide field management decisions related to fertilizer and manure

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Managing the timing of fertilizer and manure application is critical to protecting water quality in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. While modern nutrient management tools are designed to help farmers with their long-term field management planning, they do not support daily decisions on when and where...

  9. Decision Support Tool For Optimizing Best Management Practices In The US Corn Belt

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Direct measurements combined with system modeling are used to estimate the impacts of management practices on crop yields and soil organic carbon (SOC). We developed a decision support tool that integrates the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model with soil, climate, land use, and man...

  10. Evaluation of a Cognitive Tool for Enhanced Decision Making and Personal Change among College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kreitler, Crystal Mata; Dansereau, Donald F.; Barth, Timothy M.; Repasky, Gregory T.; Miller, James

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we examine the impact of a fill-in-the-node spatial display that college students complete while considering alternatives and action plans related to dilemmas and behavior change. College students who utilized the cognitive tool reported greater positive expectations for future decision making and personal change than did those in a…

  11. A Decision Support Prototype Tool for Predicting Student Performance in an ODL Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kotsiantis, S. B.; Pintelas, P. E.

    2004-01-01

    Machine Learning algorithms fed with data sets which include information such as attendance data, test scores and other student information can provide tutors with powerful tools for decision-making. Until now, much of the research has been limited to the relation between single variables and student performance. Combining multiple variables as…

  12. “Budget Impact Analyses”: A Practical Policy Making Tool for Drug Reimbursement Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Foroutan, Naghmeh; Salamzadeh, Jamshid

    2014-01-01

    In the present article, Budget Impact Analysis as an effective, practical financial tool has been introduced to the policy makers for improving drug formulary and reimbursement decision making. In Iran, Ministry of Health (MOH), health insurance organizations, and health care providers such as hospitals could take the most advantage of the BIAs reports. PMID:25276214

  13. "Budget impact analyses": a practical policy making tool for drug reimbursement decisions.

    PubMed

    Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Foroutan, Naghmeh; Salamzadeh, Jamshid

    2014-01-01

    In the present article, Budget Impact Analysis as an effective, practical financial tool has been introduced to the policy makers for improving drug formulary and reimbursement decision making. In Iran, Ministry of Health (MOH), health insurance organizations, and health care providers such as hospitals could take the most advantage of the BIAs reports. PMID:25276214

  14. DEVELOPING AND APPLYING A ROOFTOP RAINWATER HARVESTING DECISION TOOL FOR IMPOVERISHED COMMUNITIES IN SOUTH AFRICA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The main outputs will be the Decision Support Tool and the design, installation and evaluation of a demonstration harvesting system that will be installed at the Witsand iEEECO™ Village Project Site in Atlantis, South Africa. The iEEECO™ Village project is underway and we have...

  15. DEVELOPMENT OF PROTOCOLS AND DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS FOR ASSESSING WATERSHED SYSTEM ASSIMILATIVE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Investigations are underway on Lake Texoma, a Corps of Engineers lake on the Oklahoma/Texas border, to develop decision support tools and information to evaluate the transport and attenuation of contaminants and stressors in a lake ecosystem, and link them to observable ecologica...

  16. Decision-Support Tools and Databases to Inform Regional Stormwater Utility Development in New England

    EPA Science Inventory

    Development of stormwater utilities requires information on existing stormwater infrastructure and impervious cover as well as costs and benefits of stormwater management options. US EPA has developed a suite of databases and tools that can inform decision-making by regional sto...

  17. End of Asset Life Reinvestment Decision Support Tool (INFR2R11AT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This “End of Asset Life” Reinvestment Decision-Support Tool is intended as a step by step guide for the asset management practitioner who faces the challenge of developing an investment strategy that represents the best integration of maintenance, operations, and capital investme...

  18. An Engineering Educator's Decision Support Tool for Improving Innovation in Student Design Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozaltin, Nur Ozge; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary; Clark, Renee M.

    2015-01-01

    Learning how to design innovatively is a critical process skill for undergraduate engineers in the 21st century. To this end, our paper discusses the development and validation of a Bayesian network decision support tool that can be used by engineering educators to make recommendations that positively impact the innovativeness of product designs.…

  19. A Cross-National CAI Tool To Support Learning Operations Decision-Making and Market Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mockler, Robert J.; Afanasiev, Mikhail Y.; Dologite, Dorothy G.

    1999-01-01

    Describes bicultural (United States and Russia) development of a computer-aided instruction (CAI) tool to learn management decision-making using information systems technologies. The program has been used with undergraduate and graduate students in both countries; it integrates free and controlled market concepts and combines traditional computer…

  20. Allocating HIV prevention resources: a tool for state and local decision making.

    PubMed

    Richter, Anke; Hicks, Katherine A; Earnshaw, Stephanie R; Honeycutt, Amanda A

    2008-09-01

    The CDC provides funding for HIV prevention activities and state and local decision-makers must allocate these funds. The implementation of a resource allocation tool designed to facilitate this process that incorporates concepts of efficiency and equity as well as CDC mandates on the use of community planning groups is demonstrated, showing how information obtained from the resource allocation tool can be used to guide the policy analysis. The demonstration uses a simplified example based on data from Florida. The tool quantifies the inherent trade-offs associated with efficiency and equity and allows decision-makers to explore different ways of achieving equity. Given the underlying epidemiological model, results are not necessarily linear so common proportionality assumptions do not hold. However, a sense of equity can be provided by implementing various metrics allowing the policy maker flexibility in their decision process. By quantifying the impact of policy choices in terms of efficiency, cost, and distribution, the resource allocation tool makes the decision process more transparent and permits more informed choices. PMID:18342388

  1. Development of a tool to improve the quality of decision making in atrial fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Decision-making about appropriate therapy to reduce the stroke risk associated with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) involves the consideration of trade-offs among the benefits, risks, and inconveniences of different treatment options. The objective of this paper is to describe the development of a decision support tool for NVAF based on the provision of individualized risk estimates for stroke and bleeding and on preparing patients to communicate with their physicians about their values and potential treatment options. Methods We developed a tool based on the principles of the International Patient Decision Aids Standards. The tool focuses on the patient-physician dyad as the decision-making unit and emphasizes improving the interaction between the two. It is built on the recognition that the application of patient values to a specific treatment decision is complex and that the final treatment choice is best made through a process of patient-clinician communication. Results The tool provides education incorporating patients ' illness perceptions to explain the relationship between NVAF and stroke, and then presents individualized risk estimates, derived using separate risk calculators for stroke and bleeding over a clinically meaningful time period (5 years) associated with no treatment, aspirin, and warfarin. Sequelae of both stroke and bleeding outcomes are also described. Patients are encouraged to verbalize how they value the incremental risks and benefits associated with each option and write down specific concerns to address with their physician. A physician prompt to encourage patients to discuss their opinions is included as part of the decision support tool. In pilot testing with 11 participants (mean age 78 ± 9 years, 64% with ≤ high-school education), 8 (72%) rated ease of completion as "very easy," and 9 (81%) rated amount of information as "just right." Conclusions The risks and benefits of different treatment options for

  2. Clarity versus complexity: land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sohl, Terry L.; Claggett, Peter R.

    2013-01-01

    The last decade has seen a remarkable increase in the number of modeling tools available to examine future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. Integrated modeling frameworks, agent-based models, cellular automata approaches, and other modeling techniques have substantially improved the representation of complex LULC systems, with each method using a different strategy to address complexity. However, despite the development of new and better modeling tools, the use of these tools is limited for actual planning, decision-making, or policy-making purposes. LULC modelers have become very adept at creating tools for modeling LULC change, but complicated models and lack of transparency limit their utility for decision-makers. The complicated nature of many LULC models also makes it impractical or even impossible to perform a rigorous analysis of modeling uncertainty. This paper provides a review of land-cover modeling approaches and the issues causes by the complicated nature of models, and provides suggestions to facilitate the increased use of LULC models by decision-makers and other stakeholders. The utility of LULC models themselves can be improved by 1) providing model code and documentation, 2) through the use of scenario frameworks to frame overall uncertainties, 3) improving methods for generalizing key LULC processes most important to stakeholders, and 4) adopting more rigorous standards for validating models and quantifying uncertainty. Communication with decision-makers and other stakeholders can be improved by increasing stakeholder participation in all stages of the modeling process, increasing the transparency of model structure and uncertainties, and developing user-friendly decision-support systems to bridge the link between LULC science and policy. By considering these options, LULC science will be better positioned to support decision-makers and increase real-world application of LULC modeling results.

  3. Informed public choices for low-carbon electricity portfolios using a computer decision tool.

    PubMed

    Mayer, Lauren A Fleishman; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Morgan, M Granger

    2014-04-01

    Reducing CO2 emissions from the electricity sector will likely require policies that encourage the widespread deployment of a diverse mix of low-carbon electricity generation technologies. Public discourse informs such policies. To make informed decisions and to productively engage in public discourse, citizens need to understand the trade-offs between electricity technologies proposed for widespread deployment. Building on previous paper-and-pencil studies, we developed a computer tool that aimed to help nonexperts make informed decisions about the challenges faced in achieving a low-carbon energy future. We report on an initial usability study of this interactive computer tool. After providing participants with comparative and balanced information about 10 electricity technologies, we asked them to design a low-carbon electricity portfolio. Participants used the interactive computer tool, which constrained portfolio designs to be realistic and yield low CO2 emissions. As they changed their portfolios, the tool updated information about projected CO2 emissions, electricity costs, and specific environmental impacts. As in the previous paper-and-pencil studies, most participants designed diverse portfolios that included energy efficiency, nuclear, coal with carbon capture and sequestration, natural gas, and wind. Our results suggest that participants understood the tool and used it consistently. The tool may be downloaded from http://cedmcenter.org/tools-for-cedm/informing-the-public-about-low-carbon-technologies/ . PMID:24564708

  4. The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, C.T.

    1994-10-01

    The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approach - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.

  5. Developing and validating a practical decision support tool (DST) for biomass selection on marginal land.

    PubMed

    Andersson-Sköld, Y; Bardos, P; Chalot, M; Bert, V; Crutu, G; Phanthavongsa, P; Delplanque, M; Track, T; Cundy, A B

    2014-12-01

    Marginal, often contaminated, sites exist in large areas across the world as a result of historic activities such as industry, transportation and mineral extraction. Remediation, or other improvements, of these sites is typically only considered for sites with high exploitation pressure and those posing the highest risks to human health or the environment. At the same time there is increasing competition for land resources for different needs such as biofuel production. Potentially some of this land requirement could be met by production of biomass on brownfield or other marginal land, thereby improving the land while applying the crop cultivation as part of an integrated management strategy. The design and decision making for such a strategy will be site specific. A decision support framework, the Rejuvenate DST (decision support tool) has been developed with the aim of supporting such site specific decision making. This tool is presented here, and has been tested by applying it to a number of case study sites. The consequent SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunities and threats) analysis is discussed and evaluated. The DST was found to be systematic, transparent, and applicable for diverse sites in France, Romania and Sweden, in addition to the sites to which it was applied through its development. The DST is regarded as especially useful if applied as a checklist in an iterative way throughout the decision process, from identifying potential crops to identifying knowledge gaps, working/non-working management strategies and potential risks. The DST also provides a structure promoting effective stakeholder engagement. PMID:25014888

  6. A spatial multicriteria decision making tool to define the best agricultural areas for sewage sludge amendment.

    PubMed

    Passuello, Ana; Cadiach, Oda; Perez, Yolanda; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2012-01-01

    Sewage sludge amendment on agricultural soils has recently become a practice of heightened interest, as a consequence of sewage sludge production increase. This practice has benefits to soil and crops, however it may also lead to environmental contamination, depending on the characteristics of the fields. In order to define the suitability of the different agricultural fields to receive sewage sludge, a spatial tool is proposed. This tool, elaborated in GIS platform, aggregates different criteria regarding human exposure and environmental contamination. The spatial tool was applied to a case study in the region of Catalonia (NE of Spain). Within the case study, each step of the tool development is detailed. The results show that the studied region has different suitability degrees, being the appropriate areas sufficient for receiving the total amount of sewage sludge produced. The sensitivity analysis showed that "groundwater contamination", "distance to urban areas", "metals concentration in soil" and "crop type" are the most important criteria of the evaluation. The developed tool successfully tackled the problem, providing a comprehensive procedure to evaluate agricultural land suitability to receive sewage sludge as an organic fertilizer. Also, the tool implementation gives insights to decision makers, guiding them to more confident decisions, based on an extensive group of criteria. PMID:21982027

  7. Flexible decision-making relative to reward quality and tool functionality in Goffin cockatoos (Cacatua goffiniana)

    PubMed Central

    Laumer, I. B.; Bugnyar, T.; Auersperg, A. M. I.

    2016-01-01

    Decisions involving the use of tools may require an agent to consider more levels of relational complexity than merely deciding between an immediate and a delayed option. Using a new experimental approach featuring two different types of tools, two apparatuses as well as two different types of reward, we investigated the Goffin cockatoos’ ability to make flexible and profitable decisions within five different setups. Paralleling previous results in primates, most birds overcame immediate drives in favor of future gains; some did so even if tool use involved additional work effort. Furthermore, at the group level subjects maximized their profit by simultaneously considering both the quality of an immediate versus a delayed food reward (accessible with a tool) and the functionality of the available tool. As their performance levels remained stable across trials in all testing setups, this was unlikely the result of a learning effect. The Goffin cockatoos’ ability to focus on relevant information was constrained when all task components (both food qualities, both apparatuses and both tools) were presented at the same time. PMID:27334699

  8. The informed decisions toolbox: tools for knowledge transfer and performance improvement.

    PubMed

    Rundall, Thomas G; Martelli, Peter F; Arroyo, Laura; McCurdy, Rodney; Graetz, Ilana; Neuwirth, Esther B; Curtis, Pam; Schmittdiel, Julie; Gibson, Mark; Hsu, John

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, spurred by developments in evidence-informed medicine, a movement to strengthen evidence-informed managerial decision making in healthcare organizations has emerged in the United States and in other countries. The drivers of this movement include demands by payers and consumer groups for improved quality of care, increased operational efficiency, and greater accountability from healthcare organizations. But numerous barriers to managers' use of evidence in decision making exist, including time pressures, perceived threats to autonomy, preference for colloquial knowledge based on individual experiences, difficulty accessing the relevant evidence base, reliance on external consultants (and others) to determine the quality of the information, and lack of resources. To help managers overcome these barriers, we developed the Informed Decisions Toolbox. It provides tools to help managers efficiently perform the six key steps in the evidence-informed approach to decision making: (1) framing the management question, (2) finding sources of information, (3) assessing the accuracy of the information, (4) assessing the applicability of the information, (5) assessing the actionability of the evidence, and (6) determining if the information is adequate. To build an organizational environment conducive to evidence-informed decision making, we suggest four leadership-driven strategies: (1) recognize and respond to the growing demand for accountability as a strategic issue, (2) establish organizational structures and processes for knowledge transfer, (3) build a questioning organizational culture, and (4) build organizational research capabilities. With organizational support, managers who use the tools presented in the Informed Decisions Toolbox will be able to take control of the decision-making process, will be less reliant on colloquial evidence and consultants, and will be better able to improve the performance of their organizations. PMID:17933188

  9. Using an Electronic Decision Support Tool to Reduce Inappropriate Polypharmacy and Optimize Medicines: Rationale and Methods

    PubMed Central

    Tordoff, June; Dovey, Susan; Reith, David; Lloyd, Hywel; Tilyard, Murray; Smith, Alesha

    2016-01-01

    Background Polypharmacy and inappropriate continuation of medicines can lead to a significant risk of adverse drug events and drug interactions with patient harm and escalating health care costs as a result. Thorough review of patients’ medications focusing on the need for each drug can reduce the potential for harm. Limitations in performing effective medicine reviews in practice include consultation time constraints and funding for pharmacy services. We will aim to overcome these problems by designing an automatic electronic decision support tool (the medicines optimization/review and evaluation (MORE) module) that is embedded in general practice electronic records systems. The tool will focus on medicines optimization and reducing polypharmacy to aid prescribers in reviewing medicines and improve patient outcomes. Objective The objectives of this study are: (1) to develop an electronic decision support tool to assist prescribers in performing clinical medication reviews with a particular focus on patients experiencing multimorbidity and polypharmacy, and (2) evaluate and assess the use of the electronic decision support tool, providing pilot data on its usefulness in supporting prescribers during consultations with patients. Methods The first three study phases involve development of clinical rules outlining clinical interventions and the creation and validation of the MORE decision support tool. Phase four is a community-based, single-blind, prospective, 6-month controlled trial involving two interventions and two control general practices, matched for practice demographics. We will be measuring the number of times prescribers engage with the tool, total number of interventions suggested by the tool, and total number of times prescribers change medicines in response to recommendations. There will also be prospective follow-up of patients in the intervention group to examine whether changes to medications are upheld, and to determine the number of

  10. Policy-driven development of cost-effective, risk-based surveillance strategies.

    PubMed

    Reist, M; Jemmi, T; Stärk, K D C

    2012-07-01

    Animal health and residue surveillance verifies the good health status of the animal population, thereby supporting international free trade of animals and animal products. However, active surveillance is costly and time-consuming. The development of cost-effective tools for animal health and food hazard surveillance is therefore a priority for decision-makers in the field of veterinary public health. The assumption of this paper is that outcome-based formulation of standards, legislation leaving room for risk-based approaches and close collaboration and a mutual understanding and exchange between scientists and policy makers are essential for cost-effective surveillance. We illustrate this using the following examples: (i) a risk-based sample size calculation for surveys to substantiate freedom from diseases/infection, (ii) a cost-effective national surveillance system for Bluetongue using scenario tree modelling and (iii) a framework for risk-based residue monitoring. Surveys to substantiate freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis and enzootic bovine leucosis between 2002 and 2009 saved over 6 million € by applying a risk-based sample size calculation approach, and by taking into account prior information from repeated surveys. An open, progressive policy making process stimulates research and science to develop risk-based and cost-efficient survey methodologies. Early involvement of policy makers in scientific developments facilitates implementation of new findings and full exploitation of benefits for producers and consumers. PMID:22265642

  11. Researchers: new resources, tools needed to reduce variation in the admissions decisions.

    PubMed

    2014-11-01

    New research suggests there is considerable variation in the decisions emergency providers make regarding whether to admit patients with certain common, low-mortality conditions. ln some cases, the researchers found that patients were as much as six times more likely to be admitted at some hospitals than others. While available resources and cultural differences likely play a role in this variation, the researchers estimate that reducing this variation in decision making could potentially save as much as $5 billion per year. Data show that EDs are the main source of hospitalizations in this country, and emergency providers make a decision about admission approximately 350,000 times each day, resulting in close to 20 million admissions per year. Researchers found that variation in the admission decision was most prominent for patients presenting with chest pain but no heart attaclk, soft-tissue infections, urinary tract infections, asthma-related difficulties, and COPD. There was little variation in the admission decisions regarding patients with high-risk conditions such as heart attacks, sepsis, or kidney failure. Researchers suggest that reducing this variation in admission decisions will require better tools for determining which patients with lower-mortality conditions likely require hospitalization, and more resources so that physician have good alternatives to hospitalization at their disposal. PMID:25362751

  12. LCA-IWM: A decision support tool for sustainability assessment of waste management systems

    SciTech Connect

    Boer, J. den Boer, E. den; Jager, J.

    2007-07-01

    The paper outlines the most significant result of the project 'The use of life cycle assessment tools for the development of integrated waste management strategies for cities and regions with rapid growing economies', which was the development of two decision-support tools: a municipal waste prognostic tool and a waste management system assessment tool. The article focuses on the assessment tool, which supports the adequate decision making in the planning of urban waste management systems by allowing the creation and comparison of different scenarios, considering three basic subsystems: (i) temporary storage; (ii) collection and transport and (iii) treatment, disposal and recycling. The design and analysis options, as well as the assumptions made for each subsystem, are shortly introduced, providing an overview of the applied methodologies and technologies. The sustainability assessment methodology used in the project to support the selection of the most adequate scenario is presented with a brief explanation of the procedures, criteria and indicators applied on the evaluation of each of the three sustainability pillars.

  13. LCA-IWM: a decision support tool for sustainability assessment of waste management systems.

    PubMed

    den Boer, J; den Boer, E; Jager, J

    2007-01-01

    The paper outlines the most significant result of the project 'The use of life cycle assessment tools for the development of integrated waste management strategies for cities and regions with rapid growing economies', which was the development of two decision-support tools: a municipal waste prognostic tool and a waste management system assessment tool. The article focuses on the assessment tool, which supports the adequate decision making in the planning of urban waste management systems by allowing the creation and comparison of different scenarios, considering three basic subsystems: (i) temporary storage; (ii) collection and transport and (iii) treatment, disposal and recycling. The design and analysis options, as well as the assumptions made for each subsystem, are shortly introduced, providing an overview of the applied methodologies and technologies. The sustainability assessment methodology used in the project to support the selection of the most adequate scenario is presented with a brief explanation of the procedures, criteria and indicators applied on the evaluation of each of the three sustainability pillars. PMID:17428653

  14. Design and Implementation of a Cloud Computing Adoption Decision Tool: Generating a Cloud Road

    PubMed Central

    Bildosola, Iñaki; Río-Belver, Rosa; Cilleruelo, Ernesto; Garechana, Gaizka

    2015-01-01

    Migrating to cloud computing is one of the current enterprise challenges. This technology provides a new paradigm based on “on-demand payment” for information and communication technologies. In this sense, the small and medium enterprise is supposed to be the most interested, since initial investments are avoided and the technology allows gradual implementation. However, even if the characteristics and capacities have been widely discussed, entry into the cloud is still lacking in terms of practical, real frameworks. This paper aims at filling this gap, presenting a real tool already implemented and tested, which can be used as a cloud computing adoption decision tool. This tool uses diagnosis based on specific questions to gather the required information and subsequently provide the user with valuable information to deploy the business within the cloud, specifically in the form of Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions. This information allows the decision makers to generate their particular Cloud Road. A pilot study has been carried out with enterprises at a local level with a two-fold objective: to ascertain the degree of knowledge on cloud computing and to identify the most interesting business areas and their related tools for this technology. As expected, the results show high interest and low knowledge on this subject and the tool presented aims to readdress this mismatch, insofar as possible. PMID:26230400

  15. Design and Implementation of a Cloud Computing Adoption Decision Tool: Generating a Cloud Road.

    PubMed

    Bildosola, Iñaki; Río-Belver, Rosa; Cilleruelo, Ernesto; Garechana, Gaizka

    2015-01-01

    Migrating to cloud computing is one of the current enterprise challenges. This technology provides a new paradigm based on "on-demand payment" for information and communication technologies. In this sense, the small and medium enterprise is supposed to be the most interested, since initial investments are avoided and the technology allows gradual implementation. However, even if the characteristics and capacities have been widely discussed, entry into the cloud is still lacking in terms of practical, real frameworks. This paper aims at filling this gap, presenting a real tool already implemented and tested, which can be used as a cloud computing adoption decision tool. This tool uses diagnosis based on specific questions to gather the required information and subsequently provide the user with valuable information to deploy the business within the cloud, specifically in the form of Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions. This information allows the decision makers to generate their particular Cloud Road. A pilot study has been carried out with enterprises at a local level with a two-fold objective: to ascertain the degree of knowledge on cloud computing and to identify the most interesting business areas and their related tools for this technology. As expected, the results show high interest and low knowledge on this subject and the tool presented aims to readdress this mismatch, insofar as possible. PMID:26230400

  16. Project I-COP - architecture of software tool for decision support in oncology.

    PubMed

    Blaha, Milan; Janča, Dalibor; Klika, Petr; Mužík, Jan; Dušek, Ladislav

    2013-01-01

    This article briefly describes the development of the I-COP tool, which is designed to promote education and decision making of clinical oncologists. It is based on real data from medical facilities, which are processed, stored in database, analyzed and finally displayed in an interactive software application. Used data sources are shortly described in individual sections together with the functionality of developed tools. The final goal of this project is to provide support for work and education within each involved partner center. Clinical oncologists are therefore supposed to be the authors and users at the same time. PMID:23542983

  17. Verification and Validation of NASA-Supported Enhancements to Decision Support Tools of PECAD

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, Kenton W.; McKellip, Rodney; Moore, Roxzana F.; Fendley, Debbie

    2005-01-01

    This section of the evaluation report summarizes the verification and validation (V&V) of recently implemented, NASA-supported enhancements to the decision support tools of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD). The implemented enhancements include operationally tailored Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and products of the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM). The MODIS products are currently made available through two separate decision support tools: the MODIS Image Gallery and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Database. Both the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor and MODIS Image Gallery provide near-real-time products through PECAD's CropExplorer. This discussion addresses two areas: 1. Assessments of the standard NASA products on which these enhancements are based. 2. Characterizations of the performance of the new operational products.

  18. A Coastal Flood Decision Support Tool for Forecast Operations in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Breukelen, C. M.; Moore, A.; Plumb, E. W.

    2015-12-01

    ABSTRACT Coastal flooding and erosion poses a serious threat to infrastructure, livelihood, and property for communities along Alaska's northern and western coastline. While the National Weather Service Alaska Region (NWS-AR) forecasts conditions favorable for coastal flooding, an improvement can be made in communicating event impacts between NWS-AR and local residents. Scientific jargon used by NWS-AR to indicate the severity of flooding potential is often misconstrued by residents. Additionally, the coastal flood forecasting process is cumbersome and time consuming due to scattered sources of flood guidance. To alleviate these problems, a single coastal flooding decision support tool was created for the Fairbanks Weather Forecast Office to help bridge the communication gap, streamline the forecast and warning process, and take into account both the meteorological and socioeconomic systems at work during a flood event. This tool builds on previous research and data collected by the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys (DGGS) and the NWS-AR, using high resolution elevation data to model the impacts of storm tide rise above the mean lower low water level on five of the most at-risk communities along the Alaskan coast. Important local buildings and infrastructure are highlighted, allowing forecasters to relate the severity of the storm tide in terms of local landmarks that are familiar to residents. In this way, this decision support tool allows for a conversion from model output storm tide levels into real world impacts that are easily understood by forecasters, emergency managers, and other stakeholders, helping to build a Weather-Ready Nation. An overview of the new coastal flood decision support tool in NWS-AR forecast operations will be discussed. KEYWORDS Forecasting; coastal flooding; coastal hazards; decision support

  19. Developing an Atrial Fibrillation Guideline Support Tool (AFGuST) for Shared Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Eckman, Mark H.; Wise, Ruth E.; Naylor, Katherine; Arduser, Lora; Lip, Gregory Y.H.; Kissela, Brett; Flaherty, Matthew; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Khan, Faisal; Schauer, Daniel P.; Kues, John; Costea, Alexandru

    2015-01-01

    Objective Patient values and preferences are an important component to decision making when tradeoffs exist that impact quality of life, such as tradeoffs between stroke prevention and hemorrhage in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) contemplating anticoagulant therapy. Our objective is to describe the development of an Atrial Fibrillation Guideline Support Tool (AFGuST) to assist the process of integrating patients’ preferences into this decision. Materials and Methods CHA2DS2VASc and HAS-BLED were used to calculate risks for stroke and hemorrhage. We developed a Markov decision analytic model as a computational “engine” to integrate patient-specific risk for stroke and hemorrhage and individual patient values for relevant outcomes in decisions about anticoagulant therapy. Results Individual patient preferences for health-related outcomes may have greater or lesser impact on the choice of optimal antithrombotic therapy, depending upon the balance of patient-specific risks for ischemic stroke and major bleeding. These factors have been incorporated into patient-tailored booklets which, along with an informational video were developed through an iterative process with clinicians and patient focus groups. Key Limitations Current risk prediction models for hemorrhage, such as the HAS-BLED, used in the AFGuST, do not incorporate all potentially significant risk factors. Novel oral anticoagulant agents recently approved for use in the United States, Canada, and Europe have not been included in the AFGuST. Rather, warfarin has been used as a conservative proxy for all oral anticoagulant therapy. Conclusions We present a proof of concept that a patient-tailored decision-support tool could bridge the gap between guidelines and practice by incorporating individual patient’s stroke and bleeding risks and their values for major bleeding events and stroke to facilitate a shared decision making process. If effective, the AFGuST could be used as an adjunct to

  20. Benchmarking of Decision-Support Tools Used for Tiered Sustainable Remediation Appraisal.

    PubMed

    Smith, Jonathan W N; Kerrison, Gavin

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable remediation comprises soil and groundwater risk-management actions that are selected, designed, and operated to maximize net environmental, social, and economic benefit (while assuring protection of human health and safety). This paper describes a benchmarking exercise to comparatively assess potential differences in environmental management decision making resulting from application of different sustainability appraisal tools ranging from simple (qualitative) to more quantitative (multi-criteria and fully monetized cost-benefit analysis), as outlined in the SuRF-UK framework. The appraisal tools were used to rank remedial options for risk management of a subsurface petroleum release that occurred at a petrol filling station in central England. The remediation options were benchmarked using a consistent set of soil and groundwater data for each tier of sustainability appraisal. The ranking of remedial options was very similar in all three tiers, and an environmental management decision to select the most sustainable options at tier 1 would have been the same decision at tiers 2 and 3. The exercise showed that, for relatively simple remediation projects, a simple sustainability appraisal led to the same remediation option selection as more complex appraisal, and can be used to reliably inform environmental management decisions on other relatively simple land contamination projects. PMID:24482545

  1. Systems Analysis - a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruen, M.

    2008-05-01

    In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness.

  2. Systems analysis - a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruen, M.

    2007-06-01

    In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness. This is best done by trained sociologists fully integrated into the processes. The WINCOMS research project is an example applied to the implementation of the WFD in Ireland.

  3. Decision support tool for soil sampling of heterogeneous pesticide (chlordecone) pollution.

    PubMed

    Clostre, Florence; Lesueur-Jannoyer, Magalie; Achard, Raphaël; Letourmy, Philippe; Cabidoche, Yves-Marie; Cattan, Philippe

    2014-02-01

    When field pollution is heterogeneous due to localized pesticide application, as is the case of chlordecone (CLD), the mean level of pollution is difficult to assess. Our objective was to design a decision support tool to optimize soil sampling. We analyzed the CLD heterogeneity of soil content at 0-30- and 30-60-cm depth. This was done within and between nine plots (0.4 to 1.8 ha) on andosol and ferralsol. We determined that 20 pooled subsamples per plot were a satisfactory compromise with respect to both cost and accuracy. Globally, CLD content was greater for andosols and the upper soil horizon (0-30 cm). Soil organic carbon cannot account for CLD intra-field variability. Cropping systems and tillage practices influence the CLD content and distribution; that is CLD pollution was higher under intensive banana cropping systems and, while upper soil horizon was more polluted than the lower one with shallow tillage (<40 cm), deeper tillage led to a homogenization and a dilution of the pollution in the soil profile. The decision tool we proposed compiles and organizes these results to better assess CLD soil pollution in terms of sampling depth, distance, and unit at field scale. It accounts for sampling objectives, farming practices (cropping system, tillage), type of soil, and topographical characteristics (slope) to design a relevant sampling plan. This decision support tool is also adaptable to other types of heterogeneous agricultural pollution at field level. PMID:24014224

  4. Evaluation of Algorithms for a Miles-in-Trail Decision Support Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bloem, Michael; Hattaway, David; Bambos, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Four machine learning algorithms were prototyped and evaluated for use in a proposed decision support tool that would assist air traffic managers as they set Miles-in-Trail restrictions. The tool would display probabilities that each possible Miles-in-Trail value should be used in a given situation. The algorithms were evaluated with an expected Miles-in-Trail cost that assumes traffic managers set restrictions based on the tool-suggested probabilities. Basic Support Vector Machine, random forest, and decision tree algorithms were evaluated, as was a softmax regression algorithm that was modified to explicitly reduce the expected Miles-in-Trail cost. The algorithms were evaluated with data from the summer of 2011 for air traffic flows bound to the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) over the ARD, PENNS, and SHAFF fixes. The algorithms were provided with 18 input features that describe the weather at EWR, the runway configuration at EWR, the scheduled traffic demand at EWR and the fixes, and other traffic management initiatives in place at EWR. Features describing other traffic management initiatives at EWR and the weather at EWR achieved relatively high information gain scores, indicating that they are the most useful for estimating Miles-in-Trail. In spite of a high variance or over-fitting problem, the decision tree algorithm achieved the lowest expected Miles-in-Trail costs when the algorithms were evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with the summer 2011 data for these air traffic flows.

  5. Usability Testing and Adaptation of the Pediatric Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Clinical Decision Support Tool

    PubMed Central

    Furberg, Robert D; Bagwell, Jacqueline E; LaBresh, Kenneth A

    2016-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is 1 of the leading causes of death, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted years of life lost worldwide. CVD prevention for children and teens is needed, as CVD risk factors and behaviors beginning in youth contribute to CVD development. In 2012, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute released their “Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents” for clinicians, describing CVD risk factors they should address with patients at primary care preventative visits. However, uptake of new guidelines is slow. Clinical decision support (CDS) tools can improve guideline uptake. In this paper, we describe our process of testing and adapting a CDS tool to help clinicians evaluate patient risk, recommend behaviors to prevent development of risk, and complete complex calculations to determine appropriate interventions as recommended by the guidelines, using a user-centered design approach. Objective The objective of the study was to assess the usability of a pediatric CVD risk factor tool by clinicians. Methods The tool was tested using one-on-one in-person testing and a “think aloud” approach with 5 clinicians and by using the tool in clinical practice along with formal usability metrics with 14 pediatricians. Thematic analysis of the data from the in-person testing and clinical practice testing identified suggestions for change in 3 major areas: user experience, content refinement, and technical deployment. Descriptive statistical techniques were employed to summarize users’ overall experience with the tool. Results Data from testers showed that general reactions toward the CDS tool were positive. Clinical practice testers suggested revisions to make the application more user-friendly, especially for clinicians using the application on the iPhone, and called for refining recommendations to be more succinct and better tailored to the patient. Tester feedback was

  6. Discrete event simulation for healthcare organizations: a tool for decision making.

    PubMed

    Hamrock, Eric; Paige, Kerrie; Parks, Jennifer; Scheulen, James; Levin, Scott

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare organizations face challenges in efficiently accommodating increased patient demand with limited resources and capacity. The modern reimbursement environment prioritizes the maximization of operational efficiency and the reduction of unnecessary costs (i.e., waste) while maintaining or improving quality. As healthcare organizations adapt, significant pressures are placed on leaders to make difficult operational and budgetary decisions. In lieu of hard data, decision makers often base these decisions on subjective information. Discrete event simulation (DES), a computerized method of imitating the operation of a real-world system (e.g., healthcare delivery facility) over time, can provide decision makers with an evidence-based tool to develop and objectively vet operational solutions prior to implementation. DES in healthcare commonly focuses on (1) improving patient flow, (2) managing bed capacity, (3) scheduling staff, (4) managing patient admission and scheduling procedures, and (5) using ancillary resources (e.g., labs, pharmacies). This article describes applicable scenarios, outlines DES concepts, and describes the steps required for development. An original DES model developed to examine crowding and patient flow for staffing decision making at an urban academic emergency department serves as a practical example. PMID:23650696

  7. DEVELOPMENT OF PROTOCOLS AND DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS FOR ASSESSING WATERSHED SYSTEM ASSIMILATIVE CAPACITY (SAC), IN SUPPORT OF RISK-BASED ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT/RESTORATION PRACTICES (TEXOMA PROJECT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Project funded through Ecosystem Restoration internal solicitation within NRMRL. This project will focus on Lake Texoma (located on the Oklahoma/Texas border) and the surrounding watershed to develop methods and protocols for assessing SAC, and to evaluate its potential for use ...

  8. A decision support tool to prioritize risk management options for contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Sorvari, Jaana; Seppälä, Jyri

    2010-03-15

    The decisions on risk management (RM) of contaminated sites in Finland have typically been driven by practical factors such as time and money. However, RM is a multifaceted task that generally involves several additional determinants, e.g. performance and environmental effects of remediation methods, psychological and social factors. Therefore, we adopted a multi-criteria decision analysis approach and developed a decision support tool (DST) that is viable in decision-making in such a complex situation. The basic components of the DST are based on the Dutch REC system. However, our DST is more case-specific and allows the consideration of the type, magnitude and scale of contamination, land use, environmental conditions and socio-cultural aspects (e.g. loss of cultural heritage, image aspects). The construction of the DST was started by structuring the decision problem using a value tree. Based on this work we adopted the Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) for data aggregation. The final DST was demonstrated by two model sites for which the RM alternatives and site-specific data were created on the basis of factual remediation projects and by interviewing experts. The demonstration of the DST was carried out in a workshop where representatives of different stakeholders were requested to rank and weight the decision criteria involved. To get information on the consistency of the ranking of the RM alternatives, we used different weighting techniques (ratio estimation and pair-wise weighting) and alternative ways to treat individual respondents' weights in calculating the preference scores for each RM alternative. These dissimilar approaches resulted in some differences in the preference order of the RM alternatives. The demonstration showed that attention has to be paid to the proper description of the site, the principles of the procedure and the decision criteria. Nevertheless, the procedure proved to enable efficient communication between different stakeholders

  9. Assessing students' learning and decision-making skills using high performance web-based computational tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Akilah

    Using web-based computational tool in classrooms in conjunction with advanced computing models provide the opportunity for students to learn large scale processes, such as state, regional, and global environmental issues that are difficult to incorporate into student learning exercises with present basic models. These tools aided in bridging the gap between multi-field scale models and enhanced student learning. The expectations were that students would improve their decision-making skills by solving realistic and large scale (multi-field conditions) environmental issues that were made possible through faster computation time, larger datasets, larger scale (multi-field), and predictions over longer time periods using the Century soil organic carbon model. The Century Model was linked to a web-based series of functional pages through which students could run the model through. In this project, 239 undergraduate students' learning and decision-making skills using high performance classroom computing tools were assessed. Among the many Century Model parameters, the students were able to alter four variables (climate, crop, tillage, and soil texture). Students were able to simulate several scenarios simultaneously. The results of the study revealed that pretest for the four courses combined was found significant (P < 0.05), meaning that the pretest was a major contributor to their increased posttest score. Although, the scenario scale (multi-field conditions vs. single field conditions) factor was not statistically significant, the students completing the multi-field scenario assignment scored higher on the posttest and also had a higher increase in points from pretest to posttest. Overall, these results revealed that the tool provided had a positive impact on the students' learning which was evident in their enhanced pretest to posttest score and also their perceptions from the written evaluation they provided. Most students felt that the project was a good learning

  10. Improving Water Management Decision Support Tools Using NASA Satellite and Modeling Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toll, D. L.; Arsenault, K.; Nigro, J.; Pinheiro, A.; Engman, E. T.; Triggs, J.; Cosgrove, B.; Alonge, C.; Boyle, D.; Allen, R.; Townsend, P.; Ni-Meister, W.

    2006-05-01

    One of twelve Applications of National priority within NASA's Applied Science Program, the Water Management Program Element addresses concerns and decision making related to water availability, water forecast and water quality. The goal of the Water Management Program Element is to encourage water management organizations to use NASA Earth science data, models products, technology and other capabilities in their decision support tools for problem solving. The Water Management Program Element partners with Federal agencies, academia, private firms, and may include international organizations. This paper further describes the Water Management Program with the objective of informing the applications community of the potential opportunities for using NASA science products for problem solving. We will illustrate some ongoing and application Water Management projects evaluating and benchmarking NASA data with partnering federal agencies and their decision support tools: 1) Environmental Protection Agency for water quality; 2) Bureau of Reclamation for water supply, demand and forecast; and 3) NOAA National Weather Service for improved weather prediction. Examples of the types of NASA contributions to the these agency decision support tools include: 1) satellite observations within models assist to estimate water storage, i.e., snow water equivalent, soil moisture, aquifer volumes, or reservoir storages; 2) model derived products, i.e., evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, ground water recharge, and other 4-dimensional data assimilation products; 3) improve water quality, assessments by using improved inputs from NASA models (precipitation, evaporation) and satellite observations (e.g., temperature, turbidity, land cover) to nonpoint source models; and 4) water (i.e., precipitation) and temperature predictions from days to decades over local, regional and global scales.

  11. Effective dialogue: Enhanced public engagement as a legitimising tool for municipal waste management decision-making

    SciTech Connect

    Garnett, Kenisha; Cooper, Tim

    2014-12-15

    Highlights: • A review of public engagement in waste management decision-making is undertaken. • Enhanced public engagement is explored as a means to legitimise waste decisions. • Analytical–deliberative processes are explored as a tool for effective dialogue. • Considerations for integrating public values with technical analysis are outlined. • Insights into the design of appropriate public engagement processes are provided. - Abstract: The complexity of municipal waste management decision-making has increased in recent years, accompanied by growing scrutiny from stakeholders, including local communities. This complexity reflects a socio-technical framing of the risks and social impacts associated with selecting technologies and sites for waste treatment and disposal facilities. Consequently there is growing pressure on local authorities for stakeholders (including communities) to be given an early opportunity to shape local waste policy in order to encourage swift planning, development and acceptance of the technologies needed to meet statutory targets to divert waste from landfill. This paper presents findings from a research project that explored the use of analytical–deliberative processes as a legitimising tool for waste management decision-making. Adopting a mixed methods approach, the study revealed that communicating the practical benefits of more inclusive forms of engagement is proving difficult even though planning and policy delays are hindering development and implementation of waste management infrastructure. Adopting analytical–deliberative processes at a more strategic level will require local authorities and practitioners to demonstrate how expert-citizen deliberations may foster progress in resolving controversial issues, through change in individuals, communities and institutions. The findings suggest that a significant shift in culture will be necessary for local authorities to realise the potential of more inclusive decision

  12. Using Cognitive Work Analysis to Fit Decision Support Tools to Nurse Managers’ Work Flow

    PubMed Central

    Brewer, Barbara B.; Logue, Melanie D.; Gephart, Sheila; Verran, Joyce A.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose To better understand the environmental constraints on nurse managers that impact their need for and use of decision support tools, we conducted a Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA). A complete CWA includes system analyses at five levels: work domain, decision-making procedures, decision-making strategies, social organization/collaboration, and worker skill level. Here we describe the results of the Work Domain Analysis (WDA) portion in detail then integrate the WDA with other portions of the CWA, reported previously, to generate a more complete picture of the nurse manager’s work domain. Methods Data for the WDA were obtained from semi-structured interviews with nurse managers, division directors, CNOs, and other managers (n = 20) on 10 patient care units in 3 Arizona hospitals. The WDA described the nurse manager’s environment in terms of the constraints it imposes on the nurse manager’s ability to achieve targeted outcomes through organizational goals and priorities, functions, processes, as well as work objects and resources (e.g., people, equipment, technology, and data). Constraints were identified and summarized through qualitative thematic analysis. Results The results highlight the competing priorities, and external and internal constraints that today’s nurse managers must satisfy as they try to improve quality and safety outcomes on their units. Nurse managers receive a great deal of data, much in electronic format. Although dashboards were perceived as helpful because they integrated some data elements, no decision support tools were available to help nurse managers with planning or answering “what if” questions. The results suggest both the need for additional decision support to manage the growing complexity of the environment, and the constraints the environment places on the design of that technology if it is to be effective. Limitations of the study include the small homogenous sample and the reliance on interview data targeting safety

  13. Formative assessment and design of a complex clinical decision support tool for pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Khan, Sundas; McCullagh, Lauren; Press, Anne; Kharche, Manish; Schachter, Andy; Pardo, Salvatore; McGinn, Thomas

    2016-02-01

    Electronic health record (EHR)-based clinical decision support (CDS) tools are rolled out with the urgency to meet federal requirements without time for usability testing and refinement of the user interface. As part of a larger project to design, develop and integrate a pulmonary embolism CDS tool for emergency physicians, we conducted a formative assessment to determine providers' level of interest and input on designs and content. This was a study to conduct a formative assessment of emergency medicine (EM) physicians that included focus groups and key informant interviews. The focus of this study was twofold, to determine the general attitude towards CDS tool integration and the ideal integration point into the clinical workflow. To accomplish this, we first approached EM physicians in a focus group, then, during key informant interviews, we presented workflow designs and gave a scenario to help the providers visualise how the CDS tool works. Participants were asked questions regarding the trigger location, trigger words, integration into their workflow, perceived utility and heuristic of the tool. Results from the participants' survey responses to trigger location, perceived utility and efficiency, indicated that the providers felt the tool would be more of a hindrance than an aid. However, some providers commented that they had not had exposure to CDS tools but had used online calculators, and thought the tools would be helpful at the point-of-care if integrated into the EHR. Furthermore, there was a preference for an order entry wireframe. This study highlights several factors to consider when designing CDS tools: (1) formative assessment of EHR functionality and clinical environment workflow, (2) focus groups and key informative interviews to incorporate providers' perceptions of CDS and workflow integration and/or (3) the demonstration of proposed workflows through wireframes to help providers visualise design concepts. PMID:26718820

  14. Make better decision through web-based climate change spatial tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nasrin Baby, Sultana

    2013-04-01

    The ultimate aim of using spatial datasets and spatial data modelling is focused on enabling a sustainable environment by bringing the public policies into practice. The consequence will be sustainable spatially aware strategic planning for all levels of Australian government. GIS are the platform that can serve this aim provided that model, current process and spatial datasets are fit for purpose. To bring public policy into practice a broad range of knowledge from different disciplines is needed. Most decision making processes are pressured in terms of time, driving forces and also the process is beyond the knowledge of individuals in the various disciplines. There is a need for immediate uptake models and tools which are relevant to the target subject that will facilitate decision making process. This paper will focus on realizing the utility in spatial data handling in order to help climate change adaptation programs at local government level . Web-based mapping tools can assist planners prepare for the changing climate conditions in Bass Coast Shire Council. The GIS team has gathered data from various climate research organizations to understand projections of what different climate scenarios might look like over the next 100-year period. From this website demo it is hoped that the user will understand how the tool works, background information on different GIS platforms , access to interactive mapping , online geospatial analysis tools , videos , open source resource , sea level tools , modelling , 3D visualization and direct download access to various planning and natural resource data sets relating to environment management. We will provide some results from our elevation data analyses through these Web map visualization tools.

  15. Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

    2013-12-01

    Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

  16. Data Driven Farming: Delivering the Benefits of Remotely Sensed Data and Decision Support Tools to Farmers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shriver, J.; Soloff, J. A.; Molen, N.

    2014-12-01

    Web-based agricultural management software allows for the delivery of previously hard to access soil, weather and remotely sensed data to growers. While access to these data sources is beneficial, growers can realize large gains by leveraging field level data and integrating decision support tools that have been presented in the literature. Using a previously developed model for estimating the growth stage of maize (Sakamoto et al. 2010), we examine how remotely sensed data can be integrated into a web-based agricultural management tool, informing grower management decisions by providing near real-time estimates of crop growth stage and sub-field level variability in growing conditions. When combined with field-level soil and weather data, growers can use remote sensing based models to tailor management activities, taking variable (climate related) and invariant (site characteristic) yield determining factors into account.Time series of Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRVI) derived from Landsat observations were linked to 97 fields growing maize across the Mid-western region of the United States in 2013. Crop growth stage day of year (DOY) estimates (V2.5, R1, R5, and R6) were predicted for each field based on the WDRVI profile and compared to a growing degree day based estimate. These estimates aid in scheduling growth stage specific management activities and allow farmers to more efficiently monitor geographically remote fields. Within-field variation in growing conditions is presented on an ordinal scale (below average, average, above average) based on the field-level distribution of WDRVI values at each observation. Monitoring of sub-field level conditions allows growers to calibrate field-level yield estimates, prioritize field scouting activities and plan targeted interventions. Integration of these tools into existing web-based agricultural management tools allows growers to easily incorporate remotely sensed data into their decision making process

  17. A visualization tool to support decision making in environmental and biological planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romañach, Stephanie S.; McKelvy, James M.; Conzelmann, Craig; Suir, Kevin J.

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale ecosystem management involves consideration of many factors for informed decision making. The EverVIEW Data Viewer is a cross-platform desktop decision support tool to help decision makers compare simulation model outputs from competing plans for restoring Florida's Greater Everglades. The integration of NetCDF metadata conventions into EverVIEW allows end-users from multiple institutions within and beyond the Everglades restoration community to share information and tools. Our development process incorporates continuous interaction with targeted end-users for increased likelihood of adoption. One of EverVIEW's signature features is side-by-side map panels, which can be used to simultaneously compare species or habitat impacts from alternative restoration plans. Other features include examination of potential restoration plan impacts across multiple geographic or tabular displays, and animation through time. As a result of an iterative, standards-driven approach, EverVIEW is relevant to large-scale planning beyond Florida, and is used in multiple biological planning efforts in the United States.

  18. Integrated Decision-Making Tool to Develop Spent Fuel Strategies for Research Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Beatty, Randy L; Harrison, Thomas J

    2016-01-01

    IAEA Member States operating or having previously operated a Research Reactor are responsible for the safe and sustainable management and disposal of associated radioactive waste, including research reactor spent nuclear fuel (RRSNF). This includes the safe disposal of RRSNF or the corresponding equivalent waste returned after spent fuel reprocessing. One key challenge to developing general recommendations lies in the diversity of spent fuel types, locations and national/regional circumstances rather than mass or volume alone. This is especially true given that RRSNF inventories are relatively small, and research reactors are rarely operated at a high power level or duration typical of commercial power plants. Presently, many countries lack an effective long-term policy for managing RRSNF. This paper presents results of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Project (CRP) #T33001 on Options and Technologies for Managing the Back End of the Research Reactor Nuclear Fuel Cycle which includes an Integrated Decision Making Tool called BRIDE (Back-end Research reactor Integrated Decision Evaluation). This is a multi-attribute decision-making tool that combines the Total Estimated Cost of each life-cycle scenario with Non-economic factors such as public acceptance, technical maturity etc and ranks optional back-end scenarios specific to member states situations in order to develop a specific member state strategic plan with a preferred or recommended option for managing spent fuel from Research Reactors.

  19. Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Otterstatter, Matthew R.

    2005-01-01

    The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

  20. A UMLS-based Knowledge Acquisition Tool for Rule-based Clinical Decision Support System Development

    PubMed Central

    Achour, Soumeya L.; Dojat, Michel; Rieux, Claire; Bierling, Philippe; Lepage, Eric

    2001-01-01

    Decision support systems in the medical field have to be easily modified by medical experts themselves. The authors have designed a knowledge acquisition tool to facilitate the creation and maintenance of a knowledge base by the domain expert and its sharing and reuse by other institutions. The Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) contains the domain entities and constitutes the relations repository from which the expert builds, through a specific browser, the explicit domain ontology. The expert is then guided in creating the knowledge base according to the pre-established domain ontology and condition–action rule templates that are well adapted to several clinical decision-making processes. Corresponding medical logic modules are eventually generated. The application of this knowledge acquisition tool to the construction of a decision support system in blood transfusion demonstrates the value of such a pragmatic methodology for the design of rule-based clinical systems that rely on the highly progressive knowledge embedded in hospital information systems. PMID:11418542

  1. 12 CFR 652.90 - How to report your risk-based capital determination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ..., including any business policy decisions or other assumptions made in implementing the risk-based capital... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How to report your risk-based capital... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.90 How...

  2. Qualitative evaluation of a diabetes electronic decision support tool: views of users

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Quality care of type 2 diabetes is complex and requires systematic use of clinical data to monitor care processes and outcomes. An electronic decision support (EDS) tool for the management of type 2 diabetes in primary care was developed by the Australian Pharmaceutical Alliance. The aim of this qualitative study was to evaluate the uptake and use of the EDS tool as well as to describe the impact of the EDS tool on the primary care consultation for diabetes from the perspectives of general practitioners and practice nurses. Methods This was a qualitative study of telephone interviews. General Practitioners and Practice Nurses from four Divisions of General Practice who had used the EDS tool for a minimum of six weeks were invited to participate. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and the interview transcripts were coded and thematically analysed using NVivo 8 software. Results In total 15 General Practitioners and 2 Practice Nurses completed the interviews. The most commonly used feature of the EDS tool was the summary side bar; its major function was to provide an overview of clinical information and a prompt or reminder to diabetes care. It also assisted communication and served an educational role as a visual aide in the consultation. Some participants thought the tool resulted in longer consultations. There were a range of barriers to use related to the design and functionality of the tool and to the primary care context. Conclusions The EDS tool shows promise as a way of summarising information about patients’ diabetes state, reminder of required diabetes care and an aide to patient education. PMID:22759239

  3. Developing a Tool for Measuring the Decision-Making Competence of Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Finucane, Melissa L.; Gullion, Christina M.

    2010-01-01

    The authors evaluated the reliability and validity of a tool for measuring older adults’ decision-making competence (DMC). Two-hundred-five younger adults (25-45 years), 208 young-older adults (65-74 years), and 198 old-older adults (75-97 years) made judgments and decisions related to health, finance, and nutrition. Reliable indices of comprehension, dimension weighting, and cognitive reflection were developed. Unlike previous research, the authors were able to compare old-older with young-older adults’ performance. As hypothesized, old-older adults performed more poorly than young-older adults; both groups of older adults performed more poorly than younger adults. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that a large amount of variance in decision performance across age groups (including mean trends) could be accounted for by social variables, health measures, basic cognitive skills, attitudinal measures, and numeracy. Structural equation modeling revealed significant pathways from three exogenous latent factors (crystallized intelligence, other cognitive abilities, and age) to the endogenous DMC latent factor. Further research is needed to validate the meaning of performance on these tasks for real-life decision making. PMID:20545413

  4. Decision Support Tools Evaluation Report for FAS/PECAD, Version 2.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, Kenton; McKellip, Rodney; Mason, Ted; Zanoni, Vicki; Morris, Keith

    2004-01-01

    Global agricultral intelligence is a key element of decision support eithin the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Estimeates of production and yield issued by the USDA for both foreign and domestic agriculture are primary sources of information for policy and management decision making. The USDA monitors the major global agricultural commodities through the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of its Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Specifically, PECAD iintelligence focuses on global agricultural production and on conditions that affect food security. In conjunction with the USDA, NASA is evaluating the potential for products from NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) missions to add value to PECAD's decision support tools. NASA is usig a systems engineering approach to evaluate the potential enhancement of PECAD's decision support system (DSS)-first by understanding the components of the system and its input requirements, then by recommending NASA products that may be integrated as system inputs to improve the accuracy, quality, or efficiency of the DSS output. This report documents the evaluation phase of the systems engineering process and includes an examination of the system architecture, operations, and input requirements, as well as an initial assessment of specific ESE measurement systems and products that should be considered for their potential to enhance the PECAD DSS.

  5. Benefits and limitations of using decision analytic tools to assess uncertainty and prioritize Landscape Conservation Cooperative information needs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Post van der Burg, Max; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Nelson, Richard D.

    2016-01-01

    The Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of partnerships throughout North America that are tasked with integrating science and management to support more effective delivery of conservation at a landscape scale. In order to achieve this integration, some LCCs have adopted the approach of providing their partners with better scientific information in an effort to facilitate more effective and coordinated conservation decisions. Taking this approach has led many LCCs to begin funding research to provide the information for improved decision making. To ensure that funding goes to research projects with the highest likelihood of leading to more integrated broad scale conservation, some LCCs have also developed approaches for prioritizing which information needs will be of most benefit to their partnerships. We describe two case studies in which decision analytic tools were used to quantitatively assess the relative importance of information for decisions made by partners in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. The results of the case studies point toward a few valuable lessons in terms of using these tools with LCCs. Decision analytic tools tend to help shift focus away from research oriented discussions and toward discussions about how information is used in making better decisions. However, many technical experts do not have enough knowledge about decision making contexts to fully inform the latter type of discussion. When assessed in the right decision context, however, decision analyses can point out where uncertainties actually affect optimal decisions and where they do not. This helps technical experts understand that not all research is valuable in improving decision making. But perhaps most importantly, our results suggest that decision analytic tools may be more useful for LCCs as way of developing integrated objectives for coordinating partner decisions across the landscape, rather than simply ranking research priorities.

  6. A decision support tool for landfill methane generation and gas collection.

    PubMed

    Emkes, Harriet; Coulon, Frédéric; Wagland, Stuart

    2015-09-01

    This study presents a decision support tool (DST) to enhance methane generation at individual landfill sites. To date there is no such tool available to provide landfill decision makers with clear and simplified information to evaluate biochemical processes within a landfill site, to assess performance of gas production and to identify potential remedies to any issues. The current lack in understanding stems from the complexity of the landfill waste degradation process. Two scoring sets for landfill gas production performance are calculated with the tool: (1) methane output score which measures the deviation of the actual methane output rate at each site which the prediction generated by the first order decay model LandGEM; and (2) landfill gas indicators' score, which measures the deviation of the landfill gas indicators from their ideal ranges for optimal methane generation conditions. Landfill gas indicators include moisture content, temperature, alkalinity, pH, BOD, COD, BOD/COD ratio, ammonia, chloride, iron and zinc. A total landfill gas indicator score is provided using multi-criteria analysis to calculate the sum of weighted scores for each indicator. The weights for each indicator are calculated using an analytical hierarchical process. The tool is tested against five real scenarios for landfill sites in UK with a range of good, average and poor landfill methane generation over a one year period (2012). An interpretation of the results is given for each scenario and recommendations are highlighted for methane output rate enhancement. Results demonstrate how the tool can help landfill managers and operators to enhance their understanding of methane generation at a site-specific level, track landfill methane generation over time, compare and rank sites, and identify problems areas within a landfill site. PMID:26168873

  7. A Decision Tool to Improve the Quality of Care in Rheumatoid Arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Fraenkel, Liana; Peters, Ellen; Charpentier, Peter; Olsen, Blair; Errante, Lanette; Schoen, Robert T.; Reyna, Valerie

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Despite the importance of achieving tight control, many rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients are not effectively treated with disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs). The objective of this study was to develop a decision support tool to inform RA patients with ongoing active disease about the risks and benefits related to biologic therapy. Methods We developed a balanced, web-based, decision support tool. Options, values and probabilistic information were described using theoretically supported formulations. We conducted a pre-post test study to assess preliminary evidence of the tool’s efficacy in improving knowledge related to biologics, clarity of values, willingness to take a biologic and informed choice. Results We interviewed 104 subjects; mean age = 62; 84% female, 86% White; median duration of RA =13 years. Knowledge (coded on a 0 to 20 scale) and willingness to take a biologic (coded on a 0 to 10 scale) significantly increased after viewing the tool (mean differences = 3.1 and 1.4 respectively, both p < 0.0001). Perceived knowledge and value clarity (coded on 0 to 100 scales) also significantly improved (mean differences 20.4 and 20.7 respectively, both p<0.001). The proportion of subjects making an informed, value-concordant choice increased substantially from 35% to 64%. Conclusion A tool designed to effectively communicate the risks and benefits associated with biologic therapy increased knowledge, patient willingness to escalate care, and the likelihood of making an informed choice. The results of this study support the need for a clinical trial to examine the impact of the tool in clinical practice. PMID:22392766

  8. Decision models in the evaluation of psychotropic drugs : useful tool or useless toy?

    PubMed

    Barbui, Corrado; Lintas, Camilla

    2006-09-01

    A current contribution in the European Journal of Health Economics employs a decision model to compare health care costs of olanzapine and risperidone treatment for schizophrenia. The model suggests that a treatment strategy of first-line olanzapine is cost-saving over a 1-year period, with additional clinical benefits in the form of avoided relapses in the long-term. From a clinical perspective this finding is indubitably relevant, but can physicians and policy makers believe it? The study is presented in a balanced way, assumptions are based on data extracted from clinical trials published in major psychiatric journals, and the theoretical underpinnings of the model are reasonable. Despite these positive aspects, we believe that the methodology used in this study-the decision model approach-is an unsuitable and potentially misleading tool for evaluating psychotropic drugs. In this commentary, taking the olanzapine vs. risperidone model as an example, arguments are provided to support this statement. PMID:16862446

  9. Decision tools for bacterial blight resistance gene deployment in rice-based agricultural ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Dossa, Gerbert S.; Sparks, Adam; Cruz, Casiana Vera; Oliva, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    Attempting to achieve long-lasting and stable resistance using uniformly deployed rice varieties is not a sustainable approach. The real situation appears to be much more complex and dynamic, one in which pathogens quickly adapt to resistant varieties. To prevent disease epidemics, deployment should be customized and this decision will require interdisciplinary actions. This perspective article aims to highlight the current progress on disease resistance deployment to control bacterial blight in rice. Although the model system rice-Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae has distinctive features that underpin the need for a case-by-case analysis, strategies to integrate those elements into a unique decision tool could be easily extended to other crops. PMID:25999970

  10. A Decision Support Tool for Appropriate Glucose-Lowering Therapy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Benhamou, Pierre Yves; Charpentier, Guillaume; Consoli, Agostino; Diamant, Michaela; Gallwitz, Baptist; Khunti, Kamlesh; Mathieu, Chantal; Ridderstråle, Martin; Seufert, Jochen; Tack, Cees; Vilsbøll, Tina; Phan, Tra-Mi; Stoevelaar, Herman

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background: Optimal glucose-lowering therapy in type 2 diabetes mellitus requires a patient-specific approach. Although a good framework, current guidelines are insufficiently detailed to address the different phenotypes and individual needs of patients seen in daily practice. We developed a patient-specific decision support tool based on a systematic analysis of expert opinion. Materials and Methods: Based on the American Diabetes Association (ADA)/European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) 2012 position statement, a panel of 12 European experts rated the appropriateness (RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method) of treatment strategies for 930 clinical scenarios, which were permutations of clinical variables considered relevant to treatment choice. These included current treatment, hemoglobin A1c difference from individualized target, risk of hypoglycemia, body mass index, life expectancy, and comorbidities. Treatment options included addition of a second or third agent, drug switches, and replacement by monotherapies if the patient was metformin-intolerant. Treatment costs were not considered. Appropriateness (appropriate, inappropriate, uncertain) was based on the median score and expert agreement. The panel recommendations were embedded in an online decision support tool (DiaScope®; Novo Nordisk Health Care AG, Zürich, Switzerland). Results: Treatment appropriateness was associated with (combinations of) the patient variables mentioned above. As second-line agents, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors were considered appropriate in all scenarios, followed by glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (50%), insulins (33%), and sulfonylureas (25%), but not pioglitazone (0%). Ratings of third-line combinations followed a similar pattern. Disagreement was highest for regimens including pioglitazone, sulfonylureas, or insulins and was partly due to differences in panelists' opinions and in drug availability and reimbursement across European countries

  11. Clinical Decision Support Tools for Osteoporosis Disease Management: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

    PubMed Central

    Straus, Sharon E.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND Studies indicate a gap between evidence and clinical practice in osteoporosis management. Tools that facilitate clinical decision making at the point of care are promising strategies for closing these practice gaps. OBJECTIVE To systematically review the literature to identify and describe the effectiveness of tools that support clinical decision making in osteoporosis disease management. DATA SOURCES Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, and EBM Reviews (CDSR, DARE, CCTR, and ACP J Club), and contact with experts in the field. REVIEW METHODS Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in any language from 1966 to July 2006 investigating disease management interventions in patients at risk for osteoporosis. Outcomes included fractures and bone mineral density (BMD) testing. Two investigators independently assessed articles for relevance and study quality, and extracted data using standardized forms. RESULTS Of 1,246 citations that were screened for relevance, 13 RCTs met the inclusion criteria. Reported study quality was generally poor. Meta-analysis was not done because of methodological and clinical heterogeneity; 77% of studies included a reminder or education as a component of their intervention. Three studies of reminders plus education targeted to physicians and patients showed increased BMD testing (RR range 1.43 to 8.67) and osteoporosis medication use (RR range 1.60 to 8.67). A physician reminder plus a patient risk assessment strategy found reduced fractures [RR 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37 to 0.90] and increased osteoporosis therapy (RR 2.44, CI 1.43 to 4.17). CONCLUSION Multi-component tools that are targeted to physicians and patients may be effective for supporting clinical decision making in osteoporosis disease management. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11606-008-0812-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:18836782

  12. A Set of Web-based Tools for Integrating Scientific Research and Decision-Making through Systems Thinking

    EPA Science Inventory

    Currently, many policy and management decisions are made without considering the goods and services humans derive from ecosystems and the costs associated with protecting them. This approach is unlikely to be sustainable. Conceptual frameworks provide a tool for capturing, visual...

  13. SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SLIDE PRESENTATION)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  14. MEETING IN CZECH REPUBLIC: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  15. MEETING IN CHICAGO: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  16. Clinical Decision Support Tools for Selecting Interventions for Patients with Disabling Musculoskeletal Disorders: A Scoping Review.

    PubMed

    Gross, Douglas P; Armijo-Olivo, Susan; Shaw, William S; Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Shaw, Nicola T; Hartvigsen, Jan; Qin, Ziling; Ha, Christine; Woodhouse, Linda J; Steenstra, Ivan A

    2016-09-01

    Purpose We aimed to identify and inventory clinical decision support (CDS) tools for helping front-line staff select interventions for patients with musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders. Methods We used Arksey and O'Malley's scoping review framework which progresses through five stages: (1) identifying the research question; (2) identifying relevant studies; (3) selecting studies for analysis; (4) charting the data; and (5) collating, summarizing and reporting results. We considered computer-based, and other available tools, such as algorithms, care pathways, rules and models. Since this research crosses multiple disciplines, we searched health care, computing science and business databases. Results Our search resulted in 4605 manuscripts. Titles and abstracts were screened for relevance. The reliability of the screening process was high with an average percentage of agreement of 92.3 %. Of the located articles, 123 were considered relevant. Within this literature, there were 43 CDS tools located. These were classified into 3 main areas: computer-based tools/questionnaires (n = 8, 19 %), treatment algorithms/models (n = 14, 33 %), and clinical prediction rules/classification systems (n = 21, 49 %). Each of these areas and the associated evidence are described. The state of evidentiary support for CDS tools is still preliminary and lacks external validation, head-to-head comparisons, or evidence of generalizability across different populations and settings. Conclusions CDS tools, especially those employing rapidly advancing computer technologies, are under development and of potential interest to health care providers, case management organizations and funders of care. Based on the results of this scoping review, we conclude that these tools, models and systems should be subjected to further validation before they can be recommended for large-scale implementation for managing patients with MSK disorders. PMID:26667939

  17. Predicting Human Error in Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools and Free Flight Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mogford, Richard; Kopardekar, Parimal

    2001-01-01

    The document is a set of briefing slides summarizing the work the Advanced Air Transportation Technologies (AATT) Project is doing on predicting air traffic controller and airline pilot human error when using new decision support software tools and when involved in testing new air traffic control concepts. Previous work in this area is reviewed as well as research being done jointly with the FAA. Plans for error prediction work in the AATT Project are discussed. The audience is human factors researchers and aviation psychologists from government and industry.

  18. Addendum to Air Quality: Decision Support Tools, Partner Plans, Working Groups, Committees

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holekamp, Kara; Frisbie, Troy; Estep, Lee

    2005-01-01

    In the original report dated February 11, 2005, the utility of NASA Earth science data in the air quality activities of other agencies and organizations was assessed by reviewing strategic and mission plans and by conducting personal interviews with agency experts to identify and investigate agencies with the potential for partnership with NASA. The overarching agency strategic plans were reviewed and commonalities such as the desire for partnerships and technology development were noted. This addendum to the original report contains such information about the Tennessee Valley Authority and will be inserted as Section 2.6 of "Air Quality: Decision Support Tools, Partner Plans, Working Groups, Committees."

  19. Addendum to Air Quality: Decision Support Tools, Partner Plans, Working Groups, Committees

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holekamp, Kara; Frisbie, Troy; Estep, Lee

    2005-01-01

    In the original report dated February 11, 2005, the utility of the NASA Earth science data in the air quality activities of other agencies and organizations was assessed by reviewing strategic and mission plans and by conducting personal interviews with agency experts to identify and investigate agencies with the potential for partnership with NASA. The overarching agency strategic plans were reviewed and commonalities such as the desire for partnerships and technology development were noted. The addendum to the original report contains such information about the Tennessee Valley Authority and will be inserted in Section 2.6 of "Air Quality Decision Support Tools, Partner Plans, Working Groups, Committees".

  20. Performance of online drug information databases as clinical decision support tools in infectious disease medication management.

    PubMed

    Polen, Hyla H; Zapantis, Antonia; Clauson, Kevin A; Clauson, Kevin Alan; Jebrock, Jennifer; Paris, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Infectious disease (ID) medication management is complex and clinical decision support tools (CDSTs) can provide valuable assistance. This study evaluated scope and completeness of ID drug information found in online databases by evaluating their ability to answer 147 question/answer pairs. Scope scores produced highest rankings (%) for: Micromedex (82.3), Lexi-Comp/American Hospital Formulary Service (81.0), and Medscape Drug Reference (81.0); lowest includes: Epocrates Online Premium (47.0), Johns Hopkins ABX Guide (45.6), and PEPID PDC (40.8). PMID:18999059

  1. Remote Sensing: A valuable tool in the Forest Service decision making process. [in Utah

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanton, F. L.

    1975-01-01

    Forest Service studies for integrating remotely sensed data into existing information systems highlight a need to: (1) re-examine present methods of collecting and organizing data, (2) develop an integrated information system for rapidly processing and interpreting data, (3) apply existing technological tools in new ways, and (4) provide accurate and timely information for making right management decisions. The Forest Service developed an integrated information system using remote sensors, microdensitometers, computer hardware and software, and interactive accessories. Their efforts substantially reduce the time it takes for collecting and processing data.

  2. Decision support tools for proton therapy ePR: intelligent treatment planning navigator and radiation toxicity tool for evaluating of prostate cancer treatment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le, Anh H.; Deshpande, Ruchi; Liu, Brent J.

    2010-03-01

    The electronic patient record (ePR) has been developed for prostate cancer patients treated with proton therapy. The ePR has functionality to accept digital input from patient data, perform outcome analysis and patient and physician profiling, provide clinical decision support and suggest courses of treatment, and distribute information across different platforms and health information systems. In previous years, we have presented the infrastructure of a medical imaging informatics based ePR for PT with functionality to accept digital patient information and distribute this information across geographical location using Internet protocol. In this paper, we present the ePR decision support tools which utilize the imaging processing tools and data collected in the ePR. The two decision support tools including the treatment plan navigator and radiation toxicity tool are presented to evaluate prostate cancer treatment to improve proton therapy operation and improve treatment outcomes analysis.

  3. Developing and Validating a Tool to Assess Ethical Decision-Making Ability of Nursing Students, Using Rubrics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Indhraratana, Apinya; Kaemkate, Wannee

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop a reliable and valid tool to assess ethical decision-making ability of nursing students using rubrics. A proposed ethical decision making process, from reviewing related literature was used as a framework for developing the rubrics. Participants included purposive sample of 86 nursing students from the Royal…

  4. Risk-based versus deterministic explosives safety criteria

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, R.E.

    1996-12-01

    The Department of Defense Explosives Safety Board (DDESB) is actively considering ways to apply risk-based approaches in its decision- making processes. As such, an understanding of the impact of converting to risk-based criteria is required. The objectives of this project are to examine the benefits and drawbacks of risk-based criteria and to define the impact of converting from deterministic to risk-based criteria. Conclusions will be couched in terms that allow meaningful comparisons of deterministic and risk-based approaches. To this end, direct comparisons of the consequences and impacts of both deterministic and risk-based criteria at selected military installations are made. Deterministic criteria used in this report are those in DoD 6055.9-STD, `DoD Ammunition and Explosives Safety Standard.` Risk-based criteria selected for comparison are those used by the government of Switzerland, `Technical Requirements for the Storage of Ammunition (TLM 75).` The risk-based criteria used in Switzerland were selected because they have been successfully applied for over twenty-five years.

  5. Identifying Decision Support Tools to Bridge Climate and Agricultural Needs in the Midwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, B. L.; Kluck, D. R.; Hatfield, J.; Black, C.; Kellner, O.; Woloszyn, M.; Timlin, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate monitoring tools designed to help stakeholders reduce climate impacts have been developed for the primary Midwest field crops of corn and soybean. However, the region also produces vital livestock and specialty crops that currently lack similar climate monitoring and projection tools. In autumn 2015, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) partnered with the US Department of Agriculture's Midwest Climate Hub to convene agriculture stakeholders, climate scientists, and climate service specialists to discuss climate impacts and needs for these two, often under-represented, sectors. The goals of this workshop were to (1) identify climate impacts that specialty crops and livestock producers face within the Midwest, (2) develop an understanding of the types of climate and weather information and tools currently available in the Midwest that could be applied to decision making, and (3) discover the types of climate and weather information and tools needed to address concerns of specialty crop and livestock commodities across the Midwest. This presentation will discuss the workshop and provide highlights of the outcomes that developed into strategic plans for the future to better serve these sectors of agriculture in the Midwest.

  6. Decision support and analysis tool for planning in a semiconductor manufacturing facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fargher, Hugh E.; Smith, Richard A.

    1994-03-01

    As part of the recently completed Microelectronics Manufacturing Science and Technology (MMST) project, a decision support and analysis tool for planning in a semiconductor manufacturing facility has been developed. Design of the planning system uses an object- oriented approach, and implementation is performed in the Smalltalk programming environment. The system continually maintains a plan for wafer release into a facility, and predicts processing completion dates. The system has been built to run in a distributed environment, allowing simultaneous users in different parts of the facility. The system also provides several types of what-if analysis, both on the existing production plan and on production data. Production plan analysis is used to assist in making operational decisions related to the facility in its current state, such as determining the least disruptive time to take a piece of equipment down for maintenance. Production data analysis, which can be performed independent of the production plan, determines information such as equipment throughput rates to achieve given product cycle-times. All planning is performed using artificial intelligence search techniques, and is based on a time-phased capacity model of the facility. Uncertainty inherent in production data, such as cycle-times, is modeled using fuzzy arithmetic. This tool was used during the final 1000 wafer demonstration for MMST, and is currently being installed in other semiconductor manufacturing facilities. This paper describes the main goals of the planning system, the overall approach to planning and analysis, and a brief description of the current status.

  7. Evaluation of Pushback Decision-Support Tool Concept for Charlotte Douglas International Airport Ramp Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayashi, Miwa; Hoang, Ty; Jung, Yoon C.; Malik, Waqar; Lee, Hanbong; Dulchinos, Victoria L.

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new departure pushback decision-support tool (DST) for airport ramp-tower controllers. It is based on NASA's Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) collaborative decision-making concept, except with the modification that the gate releases now are controlled by tactical pushback (or gate-hold) advisories instead of strategic pre-assignments of target pushback times to individual departure flights. The proposed ramp DST relies on data exchange with the airport traffic control tower (ATCT) to coordinate pushbacks with the ATCT's flow-management intentions under current operational constraints, such as Traffic Management Initiative constraints. Airlines would benefit in reduced taxi delay and fuel burn. The concept was evaluated in a human-in-the-loop simulation experiment with current ramp-tower controllers at the Charlotte Douglas International Airport as participants. The results showed that the tool helped reduce taxi time by one minute per flight and overall departure flight fuel consumption by 10-12% without reducing runway throughput. Expect Departure Clearance Time (EDCT) conformance also was improved when advisories were provided. These benefits were attained without increasing the ramp-tower controllers' workload. Additionally, the advisories reduced the ATCT controllers' workload.

  8. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

  9. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

  10. Learning environment simulator: a tool for local decision makers and first responders

    SciTech Connect

    Leclaire, Rene J; Hirsch, Gary B

    2009-01-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) has developed a prototype learning environment simulator (LES) based on the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS) infrastructure and scenario models. The LES is designed to engage decision makers at the grass-roots level (local/city/state) to deepen their understanding of an evolving crisis, enhance their intuition and allow them to test their own strategies for events before they occur. An initial version is being developed, centered on a pandemic influenza outbreak and has been successfully tested with a group of hospital administrators and first responders. LES is not a predictive tool but rather a simulated environment allowing the user to experience the complexities of a crisis before it happens. Users can contrast various approaches to the crisis, competing with alternative strategies of their own or other participants. LES is designed to assist decision makers in making informed choices by functionally representing relevant scenarios before they occur, including impacts to critical infrastructures with their interdependencies, and estimating human health & safety and economic impacts. In this paper a brief overview of the underlying models are given followed by a description of the LES, its interface and usage and an overview of the experience testing LES with a group of hospital administrators and first responders. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the work remaining to make LES operational.

  11. Verification and Validation of NASA-Supported Enhancements to PECAD's Decision Support Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McKellipo, Rodney; Ross, Kenton W.

    2006-01-01

    The NASA Applied Sciences Directorate (ASD), part of the Earth-Sun System Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate, has partnered with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to enhance decision support in the area of agricultural efficiency-an application of national importance. The ASD integrated the results of NASA Earth science research into USDA decision support tools employed by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD), which supports national decision making by gathering, analyzing, and disseminating global crop intelligence. Verification and validation of the following enhancements are summarized: 1) Near-real-time Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products through PECAD's MODIS Image Gallery; 2) MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data through the USDA-FAS MODIS NDVI Database; and 3) Jason-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon lake level estimates through PECAD's Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor. Where possible, each enhanced product was characterized for accuracy, timeliness, and coverage, and the characterized performance was compared to PECAD operational requirements. The MODIS Image Gallery and the GRLM are more mature and have achieved a semi-operational status, whereas the USDA-FAS MODIS NDVI Database is still evolving and should be considered

  12. Effective dialogue: enhanced public engagement as a legitimising tool for municipal waste management decision-making.

    PubMed

    Garnett, Kenisha; Cooper, Tim

    2014-12-01

    The complexity of municipal waste management decision-making has increased in recent years, accompanied by growing scrutiny from stakeholders, including local communities. This complexity reflects a socio-technical framing of the risks and social impacts associated with selecting technologies and sites for waste treatment and disposal facilities. Consequently there is growing pressure on local authorities for stakeholders (including communities) to be given an early opportunity to shape local waste policy in order to encourage swift planning, development and acceptance of the technologies needed to meet statutory targets to divert waste from landfill. This paper presents findings from a research project that explored the use of analytical-deliberative processes as a legitimising tool for waste management decision-making. Adopting a mixed methods approach, the study revealed that communicating the practical benefits of more inclusive forms of engagement is proving difficult even though planning and policy delays are hindering development and implementation of waste management infrastructure. Adopting analytical-deliberative processes at a more strategic level will require local authorities and practitioners to demonstrate how expert-citizen deliberations may foster progress in resolving controversial issues, through change in individuals, communities and institutions. The findings suggest that a significant shift in culture will be necessary for local authorities to realise the potential of more inclusive decision processes. This calls for political actors and civic society to collaborate in institutionalising public involvement in both strategic and local planning structures. PMID:25220679

  13. E-DECIDER: Earthquake Disaster Decision Support and Response Tools - Development and Experiences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasscoe, M. T.; Blom, R. G.; Bawden, G. W.; Fox, G.; Pierce, M.; Rundle, J. B.; Wang, J.; Ma, Y.; yoder, M. R.; Sachs, M. K.; Parker, J. W.

    2011-12-01

    Earthquake Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response (E-DECIDER) is a NASA-funded project developing new capabilities for decision-making utilizing remote sensing data and modeling software to provide decision support for earthquake disaster management and response. The overall goal of the project is to deliver these capabilities as standards-compliant Geographical Information System (GIS) data products through a web portal/web services infrastructure that will allow easy use by decision-makers; this design ensures that the system will be readily supportable and extensible in the future. E-DECIDER is incorporating the earthquake forecasting methodology developed through NASA's QuakeSim project, as well as other QuakeSim geophysical modeling tools. Remote sensing and geodetic data, in conjunction with modeling and forecasting tools, will allow us to provide both long-term planning information for disaster management decision makers as well as short-term information following earthquake events (i.e. identifying areas where the greatest deformation and damage has occurred and emergency services may need to be focused). We are also working to provide a catalog of HAZUS input files and models for scenario earthquakes based on the QuakeSim forecast models, as well as designing an automated workflow for generating HAZUS models in the event of an earthquake (triggered from the USGS earthquake feed). Initially, E-DECIDER's focus was to deliver rapid and readily accessible InSAR products following earthquake disasters. Following our experiences with recent past events, such as the Baja Mexico earthquake and the Tohoku-oki Japan earthquake, we found that in many instances, radar data is not readily available following the event, whereas optical imagery can be provided fairly quickly as a result of the invocation of the International Charter. This led us to re-evaluate the type of data we would need to process and the products we could deliver

  14. Values based decision making: a tool for achieving the goals of healthcare.

    PubMed

    Mills, Anne E; Spencer, Edward M

    2005-03-01

    The recognition that the success of the healthcare organization depends on its achievement of two interrelated goals is a relatively recent phenomenon. In its mid-history the healthcare organization was largely able to ignore cost issues. In its latter history, many would argue that it ignored its quality goals as it pursued its cost goals (15). Either approach, given declining revenues and a competitive landscape, is incompatible with continued responsible operation. If this is true, then tools that were appropriate when the healthcare organization was focused on the achievement of one or another of these goals are not adequate as the healthcare organization seeks to achieve both goals together. Thus, new perspectives and new tools must be found that help the organization address two intimately related but sometimes conflicting goals. Values based decision-making can be the perspective needed, and organization ethics is one tool that can be of use in supporting it within the institution. But there are caveats. In order for values based decision-making to be effective, leadership must take an active role in promoting its use. It must relinquish a degree of control and it must begin to trust its stakeholders to make decisions within the context of the organization's values and goals. This can be extremely difficult, as control by senior management is often seen as the only effective means of ensuring that correct decisions are made. There are additional difficulties in the healthcare organization. Control rests within two groups and the healthcare organization is operating in an environment in which variance elimination is emphasized as a means of controlling costs. This may be an appealing notion for revenue strapped healthcare organization leaders, but it implies greater control exerted by managers, not less. Relinquishing any degree of control is a frightening prospect, but it has been done successfully. An excellent example of leadership encouraging decisions

  15. Life cycle costing as a decision making tool for technology acquisition in radio-diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Chakravarty, Abhijit; Debnath, Jyotindu

    2014-01-01

    Background Life cycle costing analysis is an emerging conceptual tool to validate capital investment in healthcare. Methods A preliminary study was done to analyze the long-term cost impact of acquiring a new 3 T MRI system when compared to technological upgradation of the existing 1.5 T MRI system with a view to evolve a decision matrix for correct investment planning and technology management. Operating costing method was utilized to estimate cost per unit MRI scan, costing inputs were considered for the existing 1.5 T and the proposed 3 T machine. Cost for each expected year in the life span of both 1.5 T and 3 T MRI scan options were then discounted to its Net Present Value. Net Present Value thus calculated for both the alternative options of 1.5 T and 3 T MRI machine was charted along with various intangible but critical Figures of Merit (FOM) to create a decision matrix for capital investment planning. Result Considering all fixed and variable costs contributing towards assumed operation, unit cost per MRI procedure was found to be Rs. 4244.58 for the 1.5 T upgrade and Rs. 6059.37 for the new 3 T MRI machine. Life Cycle Cost Analysis of the proposed 1.5 T upgrade and new 3 T machine showed a Net Present Value of Rs. 42,148,587.80 and Rs. 27,587,842.38 respectively. Conclusion The utility of life cycle costing as a strategic decision making tool towards evaluating alternative options for capital investment planning in health care environment is reiterated. PMID:25609862

  16. An Evolutionary Complex Systems Decision-Support Tool for the Management of Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldwin, J. S.; Allen, P. M.; Ridgway, K.

    2011-12-01

    This research aimed to add both to the development of complex systems thinking in the subject area of Operations and Production Management and to the limited number of applications of computational models and simulations from the science of complex systems. The latter potentially offer helpful decision-support tools for operations and production managers. A mechanical engineering firm was used as a case study where a combined qualitative and quantitative methodological approach was employed to extract the required data from four senior managers. Company performance measures as well as firm technologies, practices and policies, and their relation and interaction with one another, were elicited. The data were subjected to an evolutionary complex systems model resulting in a series of simulations. The findings included both reassuring and some unexpected results. The simulation based on the CEO's opinions led the most cohesive and synergistic collection of practices describing the firm, closely followed by the Marketing and R&D Managers. The Manufacturing Manager's responses led to the most extreme evolutionary trajectory where the integrity of the entire firm came into question particularly when considering how employees were utilised. By drawing directly from the opinions and views of managers rather than from logical 'if-then' rules and averaged mathematical representations of agents that characterise agent-based and other self-organisational models, this work builds on previous applications by capturing a micro-level description of diversity and a learning effect that has been problematical not only in terms of theory but also in application. This approach can be used as a decision-support tool for operations and other managers providing a forum with which to explore a) the strengths, weaknesses and consequences of different decision-making capacities within the firm; b) the introduction of new manufacturing technologies, practices and policies; and, c) the

  17. Opportunities and strategies to incorporate ecosystem services knowledge and decision support tools into planning and decision making in Hawai'i.

    PubMed

    Bremer, Leah L; Delevaux, Jade M S; Leary, James J K; J Cox, Linda; Oleson, Kirsten L L

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating ecosystem services into management decisions is a promising means to link conservation and human well-being. Nonetheless, planning and management in Hawai'i, a state with highly valued natural capital, has yet to broadly utilize an ecosystem service approach. We conducted a stakeholder assessment, based on semi-structured interviews, with terrestrial (n = 26) and marine (n = 27) natural resource managers across the State of Hawai'i to understand the current use of ecosystem services (ES) knowledge and decision support tools and whether, how, and under what contexts, further development would potentially be useful. We found that ES knowledge and tools customized to Hawai'i could be useful for communication and outreach, justifying management decisions, and spatial planning. Greater incorporation of this approach is clearly desired and has a strong potential to contribute to more sustainable decision making and planning in Hawai'i and other oceanic island systems. However, the unique biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural context of Hawai'i, and other island systems, will require substantial adaptation of existing ES tools. Based on our findings, we identified four key opportunities for the use of ES knowledge and tools in Hawai'i: (1) linking native forest protection to watershed health; (2) supporting sustainable agriculture; (3) facilitating ridge-to-reef management; and (4) supporting statewide terrestrial and marine spatial planning. Given the interest expressed by natural resource managers, we envision broad adoption of ES knowledge and decision support tools if knowledge and tools are tailored to the Hawaiian context and coupled with adequate outreach and training. PMID:25651801

  18. Opportunities and Strategies to Incorporate Ecosystem Services Knowledge and Decision Support Tools into Planning and Decision Making in Hawai`i

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bremer, Leah L.; Delevaux, Jade M. S.; Leary, James J. K.; J. Cox, Linda; Oleson, Kirsten L. L.

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating ecosystem services into management decisions is a promising means to link conservation and human well-being. Nonetheless, planning and management in Hawai`i, a state with highly valued natural capital, has yet to broadly utilize an ecosystem service approach. We conducted a stakeholder assessment, based on semi-structured interviews, with terrestrial ( n = 26) and marine ( n = 27) natural resource managers across the State of Hawai`i to understand the current use of ecosystem services (ES) knowledge and decision support tools and whether, how, and under what contexts, further development would potentially be useful. We found that ES knowledge and tools customized to Hawai`i could be useful for communication and outreach, justifying management decisions, and spatial planning. Greater incorporation of this approach is clearly desired and has a strong potential to contribute to more sustainable decision making and planning in Hawai`i and other oceanic island systems. However, the unique biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural context of Hawai`i, and other island systems, will require substantial adaptation of existing ES tools. Based on our findings, we identified four key opportunities for the use of ES knowledge and tools in Hawai`i: (1) linking native forest protection to watershed health; (2) supporting sustainable agriculture; (3) facilitating ridge-to-reef management; and (4) supporting statewide terrestrial and marine spatial planning. Given the interest expressed by natural resource managers, we envision broad adoption of ES knowledge and decision support tools if knowledge and tools are tailored to the Hawaiian context and coupled with adequate outreach and training.

  19. Longitudinal adoption rates of complex decision support tools in primary care.

    PubMed

    McCullagh, Lauren; Mann, Devin; Rosen, Lisa; Kannry, Joseph; McGinn, Thomas

    2014-12-01

    Translating research findings into practice promises to standardise care. Translation includes the integration of evidence-based guidelines at the point of care, discerning the best methods to disseminate research findings and models to sustain the implementation of best practices.By applying usability testing to clinical decision support(CDS) design, overall adoption rates of 60% can be realised.What has not been examined is how long adoption rates are sustained and the characteristics associated with long-term use. We conducted secondary analysis to decipher the factors impacting sustained use of CD Stools. This study was a secondary data analysis from a clinical trial conducted at an academic institution in New York City. Study data was identified patients electronic health records (EHR). The trial was to test the implementation of an integrated clinical prediction rule(iCPR) into the EHR. The primary outcome variable was iCPR tool acceptance of the tool. iCPR tool completion and iCPR smartest completion were additional outcome variables of interest. The secondary aim was to examine user characteristics associated with iCPR tool use in later time periods. Characteristics of interest included age, resident year, use of electronic health records (yes/no) and use of best practice alerts (BPA) (yes/no). Generalised linear mixed models (GLiMM) were used to compare iCPR use over time for each outcome of interest: namely, iCPR acceptance, iCPR completion and iCPR smartset completion.GLiMM was also used to examine resident characteristics associated with iCPR tool use in later time periods; specifically, intermediate and long-term (ie, 90+days). The tool was accepted, on average, 82.18% in the first 90 days (short-term period). The use decreases to 56.07% and 45.61% in intermediate and long-term time periods, respectively. There was a significant association between iCPR tool completion and time periods(p<0.0001). There was no significant difference in iCPR tool

  20. Decision Tools: What To Consider When Partnering for Learnware = Outils de decision: Facteurs a considerer dans la mise en place de partenariats pour les technologies d'apprentissage.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stahmer, Anna; Green, Lyndsay

    This report provides a set of decision tools for learnware developers in private companies, public organizations, and education institutions to use in developing strategic alliances or partnerships for the development, delivery, and marketing of learnware products and services designed to meet Canadians' lifelong learning needs. The report…

  1. For Third Enrollment Period, Marketplaces Expand Decision Support Tools To Assist Consumers.

    PubMed

    Wong, Charlene A; Polsky, Daniel E; Jones, Arthur T; Weiner, Janet; Town, Robert J; Baker, Tom

    2016-04-01

    The design of the Affordable Care Act's online health insurance Marketplaces can improve how consumers make complex health plan choices. We examined the choice environment on the state-based Marketplaces and HealthCare.gov in the third open enrollment period. Compared to previous enrollment periods, we found greater adoption of some decision support tools, such as total cost estimators and integrated provider lookups. Total cost estimators differed in how they generated estimates: In some Marketplaces, consumers categorized their own utilization, while in others, consumers answered detailed questions and were assigned a utilization profile. The tools available before creating an account (in the window-shopping period) and afterward (in the real-shopping period) differed in several Marketplaces. For example, five Marketplaces provided total cost estimators to window shoppers, but only two provided them to real shoppers. Further research is needed on the impact of different choice environments and on which tools are most effective in helping consumers pick optimal plans. PMID:27044969

  2. Towards Risk Based Design for NASA's Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tumer, Irem Y.; Barrientos, Francesca; Meshkat, Leila

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the concept of Risk Based Design in the context of NASA s low volume, high cost missions. The concept of accounting for risk in the design lifecycle has been discussed and proposed under several research topics, including reliability, risk analysis, optimization, uncertainty, decision-based design, and robust design. This work aims to identify and develop methods to enable and automate a means to characterize and optimize risk, and use risk as a tradeable resource to make robust and reliable decisions, in the context of the uncertain and ambiguous stage of early conceptual design. This paper first presents a survey of the related topics explored in the design research community as they relate to risk based design. Then, a summary of the topics from the NASA-led Risk Colloquium is presented, followed by current efforts within NASA to account for risk in early design. Finally, a list of "risk elements", identified for early-phase conceptual design at NASA, is presented. The purpose is to lay the foundation and develop a roadmap for future work and collaborations for research to eliminate and mitigate these risk elements in early phase design.

  3. An Interface to Drought Mitigation: Decision Support Tools from the National Drought Mitigation Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svoboda, M.; Fuchs, B.; Hayes, M. J.

    2012-12-01

    The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (http://drought.unl.edu) has been working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) (http://drought.gov) and other partners with a goal of developing tools to enhance drought risk management activities around the world. The NDMC is a national center founded in 1995 and located at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The NDMC conducts basic and applied research, services and decision support applications, along with maintaining a number of operational drought-related tools and products including the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR) and Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI). The NDMC's newly launched National Drought Atlas (NDA) will be the focus of this presentation. Building off the concept of the original National Electronic Drought Atlas (NEDA) developed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (led by Hoskings, Wallis and Guttman in the early 1990s), the original NEDA consisted of approximately 1000 stations taken from the Historical Climate Network (HCN). The period of record was limited at that time with most stations only having digital data from the late 1940s to present. For the NDMC's NDA, more than 12,000 stations with precipitation and/or temperature records from the National Weather Service Cooperative data (COOP) network were analyzed through the Regional Climate Centers' (RCCs) Applied Climate Information System (ACIS). From the initial sample set of 12,000 sites considered, over 3000 stations had at least 40 years of data and over 1700 sites had over 60 years of data meeting our criteria. A unique period of record (POR) was established for each station based on the screening criteria, with each station having a unique starting date. From the final selection of 3059 stations, all have at least 40+ years of data and 827 sites contain over 80+ years of data. In essence, the new NDA tripled the size and doubled the period of record of those sites used in

  4. A decision support tool for synchronizing technology advances with strategic mission objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hornstein, Rhoda S.; Willoughby, John K.

    1992-01-01

    Successful accomplishment of the objectives of many long-range future missions in areas such as space systems, land-use planning, and natural resource management requires significant technology developments. This paper describes the development of a decision-support data-derived tool called MisTec for helping strategic planners to determine technology development alternatives and to synchronize the technology development schedules with the performance schedules of future long-term missions. Special attention is given to the operations, concept, design, and functional capabilities of the MisTec. The MisTec was initially designed for manned Mars mission, but can be adapted to support other high-technology long-range strategic planning situations, making it possible for a mission analyst, planner, or manager to describe a mission scenario, determine the technology alternatives for making the mission achievable, and to plan the R&D activity necessary to achieve the required technology advances.

  5. Using Dynamic Simulations and Automated Decision Tools to Design Lunar Habitats

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bell, Scott; Rodriguez, Luis; Kortenkamp, David

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the role of transient simulations, heuristic techniques, and closed loop integrated control in designing and sizing habitat life support systems. The integration of these three elements allows for more accurate requirements to be derived in advance of hardware choices. As a test case, we used a typical lunar surface habitat. Large numbers of habitat configurations were rapidly tested and evaluated using automated decision support tools. Through this process, preliminary sizing for habitat life support systems were derived. Our preliminary results show that by using transient simulations and closed loop control , we substantially reduced the system mass required to meet mission goals. This has greater implications for general systems analyses and for life support systems. It is likely that transient models, realtime integrated control, and other analyses capable of capturing the uncertainties of systems can be useful for systems analyses much earlier in the system development life cycle than has previously been considered.

  6. Information technology and decision support tools for stakeholder-driven river basin salinity management

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, N.W.T; Cozad, D.B.; Lee, G.

    2010-01-01

    Innovative strategies for effective basin-scale salinity management have been developed in the Hunter River Basin of Australia and more recently in the San Joaquin River Basin of California. In both instances web-based stakeholder information dissemination has been a key to achieving a high level of stakeholder involvement and the formulation of effective decision support salinity management tools. A common element to implementation of salinity management strategies in both river basins has been the concept of river assimilative capacity for controlling export salt loading and the potential for trading of the right to discharge salt load to the river - the Hunter River in Australia and the San Joaquin River in California. Both rivers provide basin drainage and the means of exporting salt to the ocean. The paper compares and contrasts the use of monitoring, modeling and information dissemination in the two basins to achieve environmental compliance and sustain irrigated agriculture in an equitable and socially and politically acceptable manner.

  7. A decision support tool to optimize IMRT QA workflow in a multi-vendor equipment environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arumugam, Sankar; Xing, Aitang; Vial, Philip; Holloway, Lois

    2014-03-01

    Development of a software tool to ease the Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) pre-treatment Quality Assurance process is presented in this study. The delivery of IMRT involves equipment from multiple vendors. The limitations of the equipment involved in this chain will impact on the best choice of equipment. This often results in the user needing to use multiple pieces of equipment before determining the most appropriate choices to optimise the QA work flow. This is a time consuming process and potentially delays the start of patient treatment. Software was developed in-house to assist the decision making process, validating deliverability of beam delivery parameters and selecting appropriate detector systems and configuration for QA of IMRT plans. The software has been demonstrated to be accurate and improves efficiency of IMRT pre-treatment QA.

  8. The GMOseek matrix: a decision support tool for optimizing the detection of genetically modified plants

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Since their first commercialization, the diversity of taxa and the genetic composition of transgene sequences in genetically modified plants (GMOs) are constantly increasing. To date, the detection of GMOs and derived products is commonly performed by PCR-based methods targeting specific DNA sequences introduced into the host genome. Information available regarding the GMOs’ molecular characterization is dispersed and not appropriately organized. For this reason, GMO testing is very challenging and requires more complex screening strategies and decision making schemes, demanding in return the use of efficient bioinformatics tools relying on reliable information. Description The GMOseek matrix was built as a comprehensive, online open-access tabulated database which provides a reliable, comprehensive and user-friendly overview of 328 GMO events and 247 different genetic elements (status: 18/07/2013). The GMOseek matrix is aiming to facilitate GMO detection from plant origin at different phases of the analysis. It assists in selecting the targets for a screening analysis, interpreting the screening results, checking the occurrence of a screening element in a group of selected GMOs, identifying gaps in the available pool of GMO detection methods, and designing a decision tree. The GMOseek matrix is an independent database with effective functionalities in a format facilitating transferability to other platforms. Data were collected from all available sources and experimentally tested where detection methods and certified reference materials (CRMs) were available. Conclusions The GMOseek matrix is currently a unique and very valuable tool with reliable information on GMOs from plant origin and their present genetic elements that enables further development of appropriate strategies for GMO detection. It is flexible enough to be further updated with new information and integrated in different applications and platforms. PMID:23965170

  9. A flexible and national scale approach to coastal decision tools incorporating sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, B.; Kulp, S. A.; Tebaldi, C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate science and sea level models constantly evolve. In this context, maps and analyses of exposure to sea level rise - or coastal flooding aggravated by rise - quickly fall out of date when based upon a specific model projection or projection set. At the same time, policy makers and planners prefer simple and stable risk assessments for their future planning. Here, using Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, we describe and illustrate a decision tool framework that separates the spatial and temporal dimensions of coastal exposure in order to help alleviate this tension. The Risk Finder presents local maps and exposure analyses simply as functions of a discrete set of local water levels. In turn, each water level may be achieved at different times, with different probabilities, according to different combinations of sea level change, storm surge and tide. This temporal dimension is expressed in a separate module of the Risk Finder, so that users may explore the probabilities and time frames of different water levels, as a function of different sea level models and emissions scenarios. With such an approach, decision-makers can quickly get a sense of the range of risks for each water level given current understanding. At the same time, the models and scenarios can easily be updated over time as the science evolves, while avoiding the labor of regenerating maps and exposure analyses. In this talk, we will also use the tool to highlight key findings from a new U.S. national assessment of sea level and coastal flood risk. For example, more than 2.5 million people and $500 billion dollars of property value sit on land less than 2 meters above the high tide line in Florida alone.

  10. Disaster Response Tools for Decision Support and Data Discovery - E-DECIDER and GeoGateway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.; Granat, R. A.; Lyzenga, G. A.; Pierce, M. E.; Wang, J.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Eguchi, R. T.; Huyck, C. K.; Hu, Z.; Chen, Z.; Yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Rosinski, A.

    2015-12-01

    Providing actionable data for situational awareness following an earthquake or other disaster is critical to decision makers in order to improve their ability to anticipate requirements and provide appropriate resources for response. E-DECIDER (Emergency Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response) is a decision support system producing remote sensing and geophysical modeling products that are relevant to the emergency preparedness and response communities and serves as a gateway to enable the delivery of actionable information to these communities. GeoGateway is a data product search and analysis gateway for scientific discovery, field use, and disaster response focused on NASA UAVSAR and GPS data that integrates with fault data, seismicity and models. Key information on the nature, magnitude and scope of damage, or Essential Elements of Information (EEI), necessary to achieve situational awareness are often generated from a wide array of organizations and disciplines, using any number of geospatial and non-geospatial technologies. We have worked in partnership with the California Earthquake Clearinghouse to develop actionable data products for use in their response efforts, particularly in regularly scheduled, statewide exercises like the recent May 2015 Capstone/SoCal NLE/Ardent Sentry Exercises and in the August 2014 South Napa earthquake activation. We also provided a number of products, services, and consultation to the NASA agency-wide response to the April 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake. We will present perspectives on developing tools for decision support and data discovery in partnership with the Clearinghouse and for the Nepal earthquake. Products delivered included map layers as part of the common operational data plan for the Clearinghouse, delivered through XchangeCore Web Service Data Orchestration, enabling users to create merged datasets from multiple providers. For the Nepal response effort, products included models

  11. Comparing two tools for ecosystem service assessments regarding water resources decisions.

    PubMed

    Dennedy-Frank, P James; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Ziv, Guy

    2016-07-15

    We present a comparison of two ecohydrologic models commonly used for planning land management to assess the production of hydrologic ecosystem services: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) annual water yield model. We compare these two models at two distinct sites in the US: the Wildcat Creek Watershed in Indiana and the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed in Georgia. The InVEST and SWAT models provide similar estimates of the spatial distribution of water yield in Wildcat Creek, but very different estimates of the spatial distribution of water yield in Upper Upatoi Creek. The InVEST model may do a poor job estimating the spatial distribution of water yield in the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed because baseflow provides a significant portion of the site's total water yield, which means that storage dynamics which are not modeled by InVEST may be important. We also compare the ability of these two models, as well as one newly developed set of ecosystem service indices, to deliver useful guidance for land management decisions focused on providing hydrologic ecosystem services in three particular decision contexts: environmental flow ecosystem services, ecosystem services for potable water supply, and ecosystem services for rainfed irrigation. We present a simple framework for selecting models or indices to evaluate hydrologic ecosystem services as a way to formalize where models deliver useful guidance. PMID:27111651

  12. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    SciTech Connect

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. |

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  13. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  14. AERO: A Decision Support Tool for Wind Erosion Assessment in Rangelands and Croplands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galloza, M.; Webb, N.; Herrick, J.

    2015-12-01

    Wind erosion is a key driver of global land degradation, with on- and off-site impacts on agricultural production, air quality, ecosystem services and climate. Measuring rates of wind erosion and dust emission across land use and land cover types is important for quantifying the impacts and identifying and testing practical management options. This process can be assisted by the application of predictive models, which can be a powerful tool for land management agencies. The Aeolian EROsion (AERO) model, a wind erosion and dust emission model interface provides access by non-expert land managers to a sophisticated wind erosion decision-support tool. AERO incorporates land surface processes and sediment transport equations from existing wind erosion models and was designed for application with available national long-term monitoring datasets (e.g. USDI BLM Assessment, Inventory and Monitoring, USDA NRCS Natural Resources Inventory) and monitoring protocols. Ongoing AERO model calibration and validation are supported by geographically diverse data on wind erosion rates and land surface conditions collected by the new National Wind Erosion Research Network. Here we present the new AERO interface, describe parameterization of the underpinning wind erosion model, and provide a summary of the model applications across agricultural lands and rangelands in the United States.

  15. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    aspects in the decision making process on adaptation measures has been developed and is currently being tested in municipalities including central Gothenburg, and smaller municipalities in Sweden and Norway. The tool is a matrix based decision support tool (MDST) aiming for encoring discussion among experts and stakeholders. The first steps in the decision process include identification, inventory and assessment of the potential impacts of climate change such as landslides (or other events or actions). These steps are also included in general technical/physical risk and vulnerability analyses such as the risk analysis of the Göta älv valley. The MDST also includes further subsequent steps of the risk management process, and the full sequence of the MDST includes risk identification, risk specification, risk assessment, identification of measures, impact analysis of measures including an assessment of environmental, social and economical costs and benefits, a weight process and visualisation of the result. Here the MDST with some examples from the methodology for the Göta river valley analysis and the risk mitigation analysis from Sweden and Norway will be presented.

  16. Role of Context in Risk-Based Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pratt, Dave; Ainley, Janet; Kent, Phillip; Levinson, Ralph; Yogui, Cristina; Kapadia, Ramesh

    2011-01-01

    In this article we report the influence of contextual factors on mathematics and science teachers' reasoning in risk-based decision-making. We examine previous research that presents judgments of risk as being subjectively influenced by contextual factors and other research that explores the role of context in mathematical problem-solving. Our own…

  17. The Lichtenberg Financial Decision Screening Scale (LFDSS): A new tool for assessing financial decision making and preventing financial exploitation

    PubMed Central

    Lichtenberg, P.A.; Howard, H; Simaskp, P.; Mall, S.; Speir, J.; Farrell, C.; Tatro, R; Rahman-Filipiak, A.; Ficker, L.J.

    2016-01-01

    One of the challenges in preventing the financial exploitation of older adults is that neither criminal justice nor noncriminal justice professionals are equipped to detect capacity deficits. Because decision-making capacity is a cornerstone assessment in cases of financial exploitation, effective instruments for measuring this capacity are essential. We introduce a new screening scale for financial decision making that can be administered to older adults. To explore the scale’s implementation and assess construct validity, we conducted a pilot study of 29 older adults seen by APS workers and 79 seen by other professionals. Case examples are included. PMID:27010780

  18. Ecosystem Decision Support: A Living Database of Existing Tools, Approaches and Techniques for Supporting Decisions Related to Ecosystem Services

    EPA Science Inventory

    Planners and decision makers are challenged to consider not only direct market costs, but also ecological externalities. There is an increasing emphasis on ecosystem services in the context of human well-being, and therefore the valuation and accounting of ecosystem services is b...

  19. An Updated Decision Support Interface: A Tool for Remote Monitoring of Crop Growing Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husak, G. J.; Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C. C.; Landsfeld, M. F.

    2014-12-01

    Remote sensing of agroclimatological variables to monitor food production conditions is a critical component of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network portfolio of tools for assessing food security in the developing world. The Decision Support Interface (DSI) seeks to integrate a number of remotely sensed and modeled variables to create a single, simplified portal for analysis of crop growing conditions. The DSI has been reformulated to incorporate more variables and give the user more freedom in exploring the available data. This refinement seeks to transition the DSI from a "first glance" agroclimatic indicator to one better suited for the differentiation of drought events. The DSI performs analysis of variables over primary agricultural zones at the first sub-national administrative level. It uses the spatially averaged rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI), and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) to identify potential hazards to food security. Presenting this information in a web-based client gives food security analysts and decision makers a lightweight portal for information on crop growing conditions in the region. The crop zones used for the aggregation contain timing information which is critical to the DSI presentation. Rainfall and ETa are accumulated from different points in the crop phenology to identify season-long deficits in rainfall or transpiration that adversely affect the crop-growing conditions. Furthermore, the NDVI and WRSI serve as their own seasonal accumulated measures of growing conditions by capturing vegetation vigor or actual evapotranspiration deficits. The DSI is currently active for major growing regions of sub-Saharan Africa, with intention of expanding to other areas over the coming years.

  20. Homeland security R&D roadmapping : risk-based methodological options.

    SciTech Connect

    Brandt, Larry D.

    2008-12-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories support the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the development and execution of a research and development (R&D) strategy to improve the nation's preparedness against terrorist threats. Current approaches to planning and prioritization of DHS research decisions are informed by risk assessment tools and processes intended to allocate resources to programs that are likely to have the highest payoff. Early applications of such processes have faced challenges in several areas, including characterization of the intelligent adversary and linkage to strategic risk management decisions. The risk-based analysis initiatives at Sandia Laboratories could augment the methodologies currently being applied by the DHS and could support more credible R&D roadmapping for national homeland security programs. Implementation and execution issues facing homeland security R&D initiatives within the national laboratories emerged as a particular concern in this research.

  1. INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND REVITALIZATION TOOLS-ELECTRONIC (SMARTE): IMPROVING REVITALIZATION DECISIONS IN STELLA, MISSOURI

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is a web-based decision support tool being developed by the Office of Research and Development (ORD) in partnership with the Office of Brownfields Cleanup and ...

  2. Development of a 2nd Generation Decision Support Tool to Optimize Resource and Energy Recovery for Municipal Solid Waste

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 2012, EPA’s Office of Research and Development released the MSW decision support tool (MSW-DST) to help identify strategies for more sustainable MSW management. Depending upon local infrastructure, energy grid mix, population density, and waste composition and quantity,...

  3. INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND REVITALIZATION TOOLS-ELECTRONIC (SMARTE): IMPROVING REVITALIZATION DECISIONS IN DAKOTA CITY, NEBRASKA

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is a web-based decision support tool being developed by the Office of Research and Development (ORD) in partnership with the Office of Brownfields Cleanup and ...

  4. Development of a Web-Based Decision Support Tool to Operationalize and Optimize Management of Hyperbilirubinemia in Preterm Infants.

    PubMed

    Palma, Jonathan P; Arain, Yassar H

    2016-06-01

    Premie BiliRecs is a novel electronic clinical decision support tool for the management of hyperbilirubinemia in moderately preterm infants less than 35 weeks gestational age. It serves to operationalize and automate current expert consensus-based guidelines, and to aid in the generation of new practice-based evidence to inform future guidelines. PMID:27235214

  5. E-DECIDER: Using Earth Science Data and Modeling Tools to Develop Decision Support for Earthquake Disaster Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasscoe, Margaret T.; Wang, Jun; Pierce, Marlon E.; Yoder, Mark R.; Parker, Jay W.; Burl, Michael C.; Stough, Timothy M.; Granat, Robert A.; Donnellan, Andrea; Rundle, John B.; Ma, Yu; Bawden, Gerald W.; Yuen, Karen

    2015-08-01

    Earthquake Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response (E-DECIDER) is a NASA-funded project developing new capabilities for decision making utilizing remote sensing data and modeling software to provide decision support for earthquake disaster management and response. E-DECIDER incorporates the earthquake forecasting methodology and geophysical modeling tools developed through NASA's QuakeSim project. Remote sensing and geodetic data, in conjunction with modeling and forecasting tools allows us to provide both long-term planning information for disaster management decision makers as well as short-term information following earthquake events (i.e. identifying areas where the greatest deformation and damage has occurred and emergency services may need to be focused). This in turn is delivered through standards-compliant web services for desktop and hand-held devices.

  6. A decision tool to guide the ethics review of a challenging breed of emerging genomic projects.

    PubMed

    Joly, Yann; So, Derek; Osien, Gladys; Crimi, Laura; Bobrow, Martin; Chalmers, Don; Wallace, Susan E; Zeps, Nikolajs; Knoppers, Bartha

    2016-08-01

    Recent projects conducted by the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) have raised the important issue of distinguishing quality assurance (QA) activities from research in the context of genomics. Research was historically defined as a systematic effort to expand a shared body of knowledge, whereas QA was defined as an effort to ascertain whether a specific project met desired standards. However, the two categories increasingly overlap due to advances in bioinformatics and the shift toward open science. As few ethics review policies take these changes into account, it is often difficult to determine the appropriate level of review. Mislabeling can result in unnecessary burdens for the investigators or, conversely, in underestimation of the risks to participants. Therefore, it is important to develop a consistent method of selecting the review process for genomics and bioinformatics projects. This paper begins by discussing two case studies from the ICGC, followed by a literature review on the distinction between QA and research and a comparative analysis of ethics review policies from Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. These results are synthesized into a novel two-step decision tool for researchers and policymakers, which uses traditional criteria to sort clearly defined activities while requiring the use of actual risk levels to decide more complex cases. PMID:26785834

  7. Airborne wildfire intelligence system: a decision support tool for wildland fire managers in Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, Doug; Born, Wally G.; Beck, Judi; Bereska, Bill; Frederick, Kurt; Hua, Sun

    2002-03-01

    The Airborne Wildfire Intelligence System (AWIS) defines the state-of-the-art in remotely sensed wildfire intelligence. AWIS is a commercial, automated, intelligence service, delivering GIS integrated fire intelligence, classified interpretive and analysis layers, and higher level decision support products for wildfires in near real time via the Internet. The AWIS effort illustrates flexible and dynamic cooperation between industry and government to combine technology with field knowledge and experience into an effective, optimized end-user tool. In Alberta the Forest Protection Division of the department of Sustainable Resource Development uses AWIS for several applications: holdover and wildfire hotspot detection, fire front and burned area perimeter mapping, strategic and tactical support through 3D visualization, research into the effects of fire and its severity and to document burn patterns across the landscape. A discussion of all of the scientific themes behind the AWIS is outside the scope of this paper, however, the science of sub-element detection will be reviewed. An independent study has been conducted by the Forest Engineering Research Institute of Canada (FERIC) to investigate the capability of a variety of thermal infrared remote sensing systems to detect small and subtle hotspots in an effort to identify the strengths and weaknesses thereof. As a result of this work, method suitability guidelines have been established to match appropriate infrared technology with a given wildfire management objective.

  8. Generation of Look-Up Tables for Dynamic Job Shop Scheduling Decision Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oktaviandri, Muchamad; Hassan, Adnan; Mohd Shaharoun, Awaluddin

    2016-02-01

    Majority of existing scheduling techniques are based on static demand and deterministic processing time, while most job shop scheduling problem are concerned with dynamic demand and stochastic processing time. As a consequence, the solutions obtained from the traditional scheduling technique are ineffective wherever changes occur to the system. Therefore, this research intends to develop a decision support tool (DST) based on promising artificial intelligent that is able to accommodate the dynamics that regularly occur in job shop scheduling problem. The DST was designed through three phases, i.e. (i) the look-up table generation, (ii) inverse model development and (iii) integration of DST components. This paper reports the generation of look-up tables for various scenarios as a part in development of the DST. A discrete event simulation model was used to compare the performance among SPT, EDD, FCFS, S/OPN and Slack rules; the best performances measures (mean flow time, mean tardiness and mean lateness) and the job order requirement (inter-arrival time, due dates tightness and setup time ratio) which were compiled into look-up tables. The well-known 6/6/J/Cmax Problem from Muth and Thompson (1963) was used as a case study. In the future, the performance measure of various scheduling scenarios and the job order requirement will be mapped using ANN inverse model.

  9. Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement - An Impact-based Decision Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blondin, Debra

    2016-04-01

    Historically, convection causes the highest number of air traffic constraints on the United States National Air Space (NAS). Increased NAS predictability allows traffic flow managers to more effectively initiate, amend or terminate planned or active traffic management initiatives, resulting in more efficient use of available airspace. A Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) is an impact-based decision support tool used for the timely delivery of high-confidence, high-relevance aviation convective weather forecasts to air traffic managers. The CAWS is a graphical and textual forecast produced by a collaborative team of meteorologists from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Center Weather Service Units, and airlines to bring attention to high impact areas of thunderstorms. The CAWS addresses thunderstorm initiation or movement into the airports having the highest volume of traffic or into traffic sensitive jet routes. These statements are assessed by planners at the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Air Route Traffic Control Centers and are used for planning traffic management initiatives to balance air traffic flow across the United States. The FAA and the airline industry use the CAWS to plan, manage, and execute operations in the NAS, thereby improving the system efficiency and safety and also saving dollars for industry and the traveling public.

  10. Existing air sparging model and literature review for the development of an air sparging optimization decision tool

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-01

    The objectives of this Report are two-fold: (1) to provide overviews of the state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice with respect to air sparging technology, air sparging models and related or augmentation technologies (e.g., soil vapor extraction); and (2) to provide the basis for the development of the conceptual Decision Tool. The Project Team conducted an exhaustive review of available literature. The complete listing of the documents, numbering several hundred and reviewed as a part of this task, is included in Appendix A. Even with the large amount of material written regarding the development and application of air sparging, there still are significant gaps in the technical community`s understanding of the remediation technology. The results of the literature review are provided in Section 2. In Section 3, an overview of seventeen conceptual, theoretical, mathematical and empirical models is presented. Detailed descriptions of each of the models reviewed is provided in Appendix B. Included in Appendix D is a copy of the questionnaire used to compile information about the models. The remaining sections of the document reflect the analysis and synthesis of the information gleaned during the literature and model reviews. The results of these efforts provide the basis for development of the decision tree and conceptual decision tool for determining applicability and optimization of air sparging. The preliminary decision tree and accompanying information provided in Section 6 describe a three-tiered approach for determining air sparging applicability: comparison with established scenarios; calculation of conceptual design parameters; and the conducting of pilot-scale studies to confirm applicability. The final two sections of this document provide listings of the key success factors which will be used for evaluating the utility of the Decision Tool and descriptions of potential applications for Decision Tool use.

  11. The Design of an IEP Decision Aid: A Tool for Diverse Parents of Children with Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schuttler, Jessica Oeth

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making is a universal process that occurs constantly in life. Parent participation in educational decision-making is recognized as important by special education law, by special education and school psychology literature (Christenson & Sheridan, 2001; IDEIA, 2004;). Partnership in decision-making is especially important for parents of…

  12. No perfect tools: trade-offs of sustainability principles and user requirements in designing support tools for land-use decisions between greenfields and brownfields.

    PubMed

    Bartke, Stephan; Schwarze, Reimund

    2015-04-15

    The EU Soil Thematic Strategy calls for the application of sustainability concepts and methods as part of an integrated policy to prevent soil degradation and to increase the re-use of brownfields. Although certain general principles have been proposed for the evaluation of sustainable development, the practical application of sustainability assessment tools (SATs) is contingent on the actual requirements of tool users, e.g. planners or investors, to pick up such instruments in actual decision making. We examine the normative sustainability principles that need to be taken into account in order to make sound land-use decisions between new development on greenfield sites and the regeneration of brownfields - and relate these principles to empirically observed user requirements and the properties of available SATs. In this way we provide an overview of approaches to sustainability assessment. Three stylized approaches, represented in each case by a typical tool selected from the literature, are presented and contrasted with (1) the norm-oriented Bellagio sustainability principles and (2) the requirements of three different stakeholder groups: decision makers, scientists/experts and representatives of the general public. The paper disentangles some of the inevitable trade-offs involved in seeking to implement sustainable land-use planning, i.e. between norm orientation and holism, broad participation and effective communication. It concludes with the controversial assessment that there are no perfect tools and that to be meaningful the user requirements of decision makers must take precedence over those of other interest groups in the design of SATs. PMID:25645951

  13. Middle-aged women’s decisions about body weight management: needs assessment and testing of a knowledge translation tool

    PubMed Central

    Stacey, Dawn; Jull, Janet; Beach, Sarah; Dumas, Alex; Strychar, Irene; Adamo, Kristi; Brochu, Martin; Prud’homme, Denis

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective This study aims to assess middle-aged women’s needs when making body weight management decisions and to evaluate a knowledge translation tool for addressing their needs. Methods A mixed-methods study used an interview-guided theory-based survey of professional women aged 40 to 65 years. The tool summarized evidence to address their needs and enabled women to monitor actions taken. Acceptability and usability were reported descriptively. Results Sixty female participants had a mean body mass index of 28.0 kg/m2 (range, 17.0-44.9 kg/m2), and half were premenopausal. Common options for losing (82%) or maintaining (18%) weight included increasing physical activity (60%), eating healthier (57%), and getting support (40%). Decision-making involved getting information on options (52%), soliciting others’ decisions/advice (20%), and being self-motivated (20%). Preferred information sources included written information (97%), counseling (90%), and social networking websites (43%). Five professionals (dietitian, personal trainer, occupational therapist, and two physicians) had similar responses. Of 53 women sent the tool, 27 provided acceptability feedback. They rated it as good to excellent for information on menopause (96%), body weight changes (85%), and managing body weight (85%). Most would tell others about it (81%). After 4 weeks of use, 25 women reported that the wording made sense (96%) and that the tool had clear instructions (92%) and was easy to use across time (88%). The amount of information was rated as just right (64%), but the tool had limited space for responding (72%). Conclusions When making decisions about body weight management, women’s needs were “getting information” and “getting support.” The knowledge translation tool was acceptable and usable, but further evaluation is required. PMID:25816120

  14. Risk-based system refinement

    SciTech Connect

    Winter, V.L.; Berg, R.S.; Dalton, L.J.

    1998-06-01

    When designing a high consequence system, considerable care should be taken to ensure that the system can not easily be placed into a high consequence failure state. A formal system design process should include a model that explicitly shows the complete state space of the system (including failure states) as well as those events (e.g., abnormal environmental conditions, component failures, etc.) that can cause a system to enter a failure state. In this paper the authors present such a model and formally develop a notion of risk-based refinement with respect to the model.

  15. Safe use of antithrombotics for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: consideration of risk assessment tools to support decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Bajorek, Beata

    2014-01-01

    Clinical guidelines advocate stroke prevention therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, specifically anticoagulation. However, the decision to initiate treatment is based on the risk (bleeding) versus benefit (prevention of stroke) of therapy, which is often difficult to assess. This review identifies available risk assessment tools to facilitate the safe and optimal use of antithrombotic therapy for stroke prevention in AF. Using key databases and online clinical resources to search the literature (1992–2012), 19 tools have been identified and published to date: 11 addressing stroke risk, 7 addressing bleeding risk and 1 integrating both risk assessments. The stroke risk assessment tools (e.g. CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc) share common risk factors: age, hypertension, previous cerebrovascular attack. The bleeding risk assessment tools (e.g. HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED) share common risk factors: age, previous bleeding, renal and liver impairment. In terms of their development, six of the stroke risk assessment tools have been derived from clinical studies, whilst five are based on refinement of existing tools or expert consensus. Many have been evaluated by prospective application to data from real patient cohorts. Bleeding risk assessment tools have been derived from trials, or generated from patient data and then validated via further studies. One identified tool (i.e. Computerised Antithrombotic Risk Assessment Tool [CARAT]) integrates both stroke and bleeding, and specifically considers other key factors in decision-making regarding antithrombotic therapy, particularly those increasing the risk of medication misadventure with treatment (e.g. function, drug interactions, medication adherence). This highlights that whilst separate tools are available to assess stroke and bleeding risk, they do not estimate the relative risk versus benefit of treatment in an individual patient nor consider key medication safety aspects. More effort is needed to synthesize these

  16. How to Quantify Sustainable Development: A Risk-Based Approach to Water Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarang, Amin; Vahedi, Arman; Shamsai, Abolfazl

    2008-02-01

    Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

  17. The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are

  18. Quality improvement in preoperative assessment by implementation of an electronic decision support tool

    PubMed Central

    Flamm, Maria; Fritsch, Gerhard; Hysek, Martin; Klausner, Sabine; Entacher, Karl; Panisch, Sigrid; Soennichsen, Andreas C

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate the impact of the electronic decision support (eDS) tool ‘PReOPerative evaluation’ (PROP) on guideline adherence in preoperative assessment in statutory health care in Salzburg, Austria. Materials and methods The evaluation was designed as a non-randomized controlled trial with a historical control group (CG). In 2007, we consecutively recruited 1363 patients admitted for elective surgery, and evaluated the preoperative assessment. In 2008, PROP was implemented and available online. In 2009 we recruited 1148 patients preoperatively assessed using PROP (294 outpatients, 854 hospital sector). Our analysis includes full blood count, liver function tests, coagulation parameters, electrolytes, ECG, and chest x-ray. Results The number of tests/patient without indication was 3.39 in the CG vs 0.60 in the intervention group (IG) (p<0.001). 97.8% (CG) vs 31.5% (IG) received at least one unnecessary test. However, we also observed an increase in recommended tests not performed/patient (0.05±0.27 (CG) vs 0.55±1.00 (IG), p<0.001). 4.2% (CG) vs 30.1% (IG) missed at least one necessary test. The guideline adherence (correctly tested/not tested) improved distinctively for all tests (1.6% (CG) vs 49.3% (IG), p<0.001). Discussion PROP reduced the number of unnecessary tests/patient by 2.79 which implied a reduction of patients’ burden, and a relevant cut in unnecessary costs. However, the advantage in specificity caused an increase in the number of patients incorrectly not tested. Further research is required regarding the impact of PROP on perioperative outcomes. PMID:23599223

  19. Effects of Airport Tower Controller Decision Support Tool on Controllers Head-Up Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayashi, Miwa; Cruz Lopez, Jose M.

    2013-01-01

    Despite that aircraft positions and movements can be easily monitored on the radar displays at major airports nowadays, it is still important for the air traffic control tower (ATCT) controllers to look outside the window as much as possible to assure safe operations of traffic management. The present paper investigates whether an introduction of the NASA's proposed Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA), a decision support tool for the ATCT controller, would increase or decrease the controllers' head-up time. SARDA provides the controller departure-release schedule advisories, i.e., when to release each departure aircraft in order to minimize individual aircraft's fuel consumption on taxiways and simultaneously maximize the overall runway throughput. The SARDA advisories were presented on electronic flight strips (EFS). To investigate effects on the head-up time, a human-in-the-loop simulation experiment with two retired ATCT controller participants was conducted in a high-fidelity ATCT cab simulator with 360-degree computer-generated out-the-window view. Each controller participant wore a wearable video camera on a side of their head with the camera facing forward. The video data were later used to calculate their line of sight at each moment and eventually identify their head-up times. Four sessions were run with the SARDA advisories, and four sessions were run without (baseline). Traffic-load levels were varied in each session. The same set of user interface - EFS and the radar displays - were used in both the advisory and baseline sessions to make them directly comparable. The paper reports the findings and discusses their implications.

  20. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  1. A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feather, M. S.

    2002-01-01

    This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

  2. The Carpe Diem West Academy: Connecting Water Resources Practitioners and Decision Support Tool Developers in Pursuit of Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; morino, K.; Wiltshire, K.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources practitioners face a confusing and often overwhelming plethora of evolving tools and methods for considering climate change in planning and management. Many tools require substantial investments in data gathering, analysis, or stakeholder engagement. Many address only pieces of the climate change adaptation challenge without clear interconnection. Additionally, there are few standards of practice in the application of these tools. The Carpe Diem West Academy provides knowledge sharing, community building, and collaboration among water resources practitioners and decision support tool developers to facilitate use of science in adaptation efforts. The technical core of the Academy is a web portal (carpediemwestacademy.org) that uses multiple frameworks, including iterative risk management, to organize an interactive compendium of over 150 tools and training resources developed by others, that are useful for water resources planning and management, including consideration of interconnections with other resources such as energy and ecosystem services. Academy users are supported through a variety of experimental approaches, including webinars and facilitated web discussion, for efficiently engaging water resources practitioners, at a scale that is practical to sustain, that fosters shared learning about tools and their application in adaptation efforts, and that can support establishment of best practices for incorporating uncertainty and climate change. The Academy has also been useful for identifying gaps where additional tools, methods, or professional development training are needed, and for providing feedback to tool developers. We report on key findings on the effectiveness of the Academy's multiple approaches.

  3. New Interoperable Tools to Facilitate Decision-Making to Support Community Sustainability

    EPA Science Inventory

    Communities, regional planning authorities, regulatory agencies, and other decision-making bodies do not currently have adequate access to spatially explicit information crucial to making decisions that allow them to consider a full accounting of the costs, benefits, and trade-of...

  4. Who Values Information from a Health Plan Internet-Based Decision Tool and Why: A Demographic and Utilization Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Song; Karaca-Mandic, Pinar; Levin, Regina

    2012-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate factors associated with utilization of health plan Internet-based decision tools. Data Sources and Study Setting Enrollment, claims, plan design, and web transaction data during 2008 provided by a national health insurer for 253,398 subscribers from 919 employers. Study Design Multivariate models of the effects of demographic, health, employer, and plan benefit design characteristics on the use of the tool and its individual function categories. Data Extraction Methods Subscribers, who were either an individual member or a family, were included if at least one family member had 12 months of coverage in 2008. Members older than 65 and those with multiple insurance carriers were excluded. Principal Findings Higher education, higher income, younger age, female gender, higher co-morbidity risk, prevalence of chronic conditions, Caucasian race, and English as the primary language were positively associated with using the tool. Plan benefit characteristics such as free preventive coverage, higher deductible, moderate coinsurance rate, family coverage, and enrollment in health savings accounts were also associated with higher likelihood of using the tool. Conclusions Insurers provide consumers information on cost efficiency, quality, and wellness through Internet-based decision tools, but more effort is needed to reach certain demographics. PMID:22091487

  5. A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Jianzhong Jay; Datta, Koushik; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

  6. A Safety Risk Assessment Methodology for Decision Support Systems with an Application to the Expedite Departure Path Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Snyder, Phillip T.; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    In support of the NASA Advanced Air Transportation Technologies Project, the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center has developed a methodology to perform safety risk assessments for air traffic control/air traffic management decision Support systems and concepts. Changes in controller, pilot, and/or airline dispatcher tasks that are affected by the decision support system are related to associated hazards. These hazards are then assessed either qualitatively or quantitatively in terms of likelihood of occurring and the impact if they do occur. Those items that show a potential safety hazard level increase can then have research plans developed to address those safety risks areas. An application of this methodology will he demonstrated using the AATT decision support tool Expedite Departure Path.

  7. Demonstration of Decision Support Tools for Sustainable Development - An Application on Alternative Fuels in the Greater Yellowstone-Teton Region

    SciTech Connect

    Shropshire, D.E.; Cobb, D.A.; Worhach, P.; Jacobson, J.J.; Berrett, S.

    2000-12-30

    The Demonstration of Decision Support Tools for Sustainable Development project integrated the Bechtel/Nexant Industrial Materials Exchange Planner and the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory System Dynamic models, demonstrating their capabilities on alternative fuel applications in the Greater Yellowstone-Teton Park system. The combined model, called the Dynamic Industrial Material Exchange, was used on selected test cases in the Greater Yellow Teton Parks region to evaluate economic, environmental, and social implications of alternative fuel applications, and identifying primary and secondary industries. The test cases included looking at compressed natural gas applications in Teton National Park and Jackson, Wyoming, and studying ethanol use in Yellowstone National Park and gateway cities in Montana. With further development, the system could be used to assist decision-makers (local government, planners, vehicle purchasers, and fuel suppliers) in selecting alternative fuels, vehicles, and developing AF infrastructures. The system could become a regional AF market assessment tool that could help decision-makers understand the behavior of the AF market and conditions in which the market would grow. Based on this high level market assessment, investors and decision-makers would become more knowledgeable of the AF market opportunity before developing detailed plans and preparing financial analysis.

  8. Multi-stage ranking of emergency technology alternatives for water source pollution accidents using a fuzzy group decision making tool.

    PubMed

    Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; You, Hong

    2016-06-01

    Due to the increasing number of unexpected water source pollution events, selection of the most appropriate disposal technology for a specific pollution scenario is of crucial importance to the security of urban water supplies. However, the formulation of the optimum option is considerably difficult owing to the substantial uncertainty of such accidents. In this research, a multi-stage technical screening and evaluation tool is proposed to determine the optimal technique scheme, considering the areas of pollutant elimination both in drinking water sources and water treatment plants. In stage 1, a CBR-based group decision tool was developed to screen available technologies for different scenarios. Then, the threat degree caused by the pollution was estimated in stage 2 using a threat evaluation system and was partitioned into four levels. For each threat level, a corresponding set of technique evaluation criteria weights was obtained using Group-G1. To identify the optimization alternatives corresponding to the different threat levels, an extension of TOPSIS, a multi-criteria interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy decision making technique containing the four arrays of criteria weights, to a group decision environment was investigated in stage 3. The effectiveness of the developed tool was elaborated by two actual thallium-contaminated scenarios associated with different threat levels. PMID:26897576

  9. Influence Diagrams as Decision-Making Tools for Pesticide Risk Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    The pesticide policy arena is filled with discussion of probabilistic approaches to assess ecological risk, however, similar discussions about implementing formal probabilistic methods in pesticide risk decision making are less common. An influence diagram approach is proposed f...

  10. Co-Production with Water Managers to Improve Applicability and Adoption of an Emerging Decision Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Dilling, L.

    2015-12-01

    In water management, changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (especially droughts and floods) are likely to require modifications of management strategies and, in some cases, new infrastructure. In light of these and other challenges, there is a serious need to improve the applicability of water resources research to real-world decision making. Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) have shown promise in being able to generate and evaluate new planning alternatives under these conditions, but there has not yet been work that seeks to use a co-production framework to extensively test their efficacy. A group of engineering, social science, and climate researchers collaborated with practitioners from two municipal water providers to design this interdisciplinary study. The focus of the research is to co-produce and test a MOEA-based decision tool directly with a group of water managers from six water utilities from Colorado's Front Range: Cities of Boulder, Aurora, and Fort Collins, Denver Water, Colorado Springs Utilities, and Northern Water. As part of the co-production of the MOEA testbed, managers provided critical insight on problem formulations, hydrology and demand scenarios, and a hypothetical water supply network using a workshop format. A problem formulation consists of objectives that measure performance, management options that decision makers can change, and constraints that represent acceptable limits for performance. The hypothetical network is based on feedback from our participating utilities and is representative of the water management context along the Front Range of Colorado. This presentation will focus on results from an initial workshop with water managers and provide insights on how our approach can help bridge the gap between decision support research and real-world water management. Our study seeks to inform a set of best practices for incorporating a MOEA-based decision tool in the decision making processes of

  11. E-DECIDER: Using Earth Science Data and Modeling Tools to Develop Decision Support for Earthquake Disaster Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.; Stough, T. M.; Burl, M. C.; Pierce, M.; Wang, J.; Ma, Y.; Rundle, J. B.; yoder, M. R.; Bawden, G. W.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquake Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response (E-DECIDER) is a NASA-funded project developing new capabilities for decision-making utilizing remote sensing data and modeling software to provide decision support for earthquake disaster management and response. Geodetic imaging data, including from inteferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS, have a rich scientific heritage for use in earthquake research. Survey grade GPS was developed in the 1980s and the first InSAR image of an earthquake was produced for the 1992 Landers event. As more of these types of data have become increasingly available they have also shown great utility for providing key information for disaster response. Work has been done to translate these data into useful and actionable information for decision makers in the event of an earthquake disaster. In addition to observed data, modeling tools provide essential preliminary estimates while data are still being collected and/or processed, which can be refined as data products become available. Now, with more data and better models, we are able apply these to responders who need easy tools and routinely produced data products. E-DECIDER incorporates the earthquake forecasting methodology and geophysical modeling tools developed through NASA's QuakeSim project. Remote sensing and geodetic data, in conjunction with modeling and forecasting tools allows us to provide both long-term planning information for disaster management decision makers as well as short-term information following earthquake events (i.e. identifying areas where the greatest deformation and damage has occurred and emergency services may need to be focused). E-DECIDER has taken advantage of the legacy of Earth science data, including MODIS, Landsat, SCIGN, PBO, UAVSAR, and modeling tools such as the ones developed by QuakeSim, in order to deliver successful decision support products for earthquake disaster response. The project has

  12. Development and validation of a tool to measure self-confidence and anxiety in nursing students during clinical decision making.

    PubMed

    White, Krista A

    2014-01-01

    Clinical decision making (CDM) is a cornerstone skill for nurses. Self-confidence and anxiety affect the learning and adeptness of CDM. This study aimed to develop and test a quantitative tool to assess undergraduate nursing students' self-confidence and anxiety during CDM. The 27-item Nursing Anxiety and Self-Confidence with Clinical Decision Making (NASC-CDM) scale is a 6-point, Likert-type tool with two subscales. Two samples of prelicensure associate and baccalaureate nursing students participated in the pilot (n = 303) and main testing (n = 242) phases of the study. Construct validity assessment, using exploratory factor analysis, produced a stable three-dimensional scale. Convergent validity assessment produced positive, moderate, and statistically significant correlations of the tool sub-scales with two existing instruments. Internal consistency reliability was assessed for each subscale (self-confidence, α = .97; anxiety, α = .96). The NASC-CDM scale may be a useful assessment tool for nurse educators to help novice clinicians improve CDM skills. PMID:24256004

  13. A methodology and decision support tool for informing state-level bioenergy policymaking: New Jersey biofuels as a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brennan-Tonetta, Margaret

    This dissertation seeks to provide key information and a decision support tool that states can use to support long-term goals of fossil fuel displacement and greenhouse gas reductions. The research yields three outcomes: (1) A methodology that allows for a comprehensive and consistent inventory and assessment of bioenergy feedstocks in terms of type, quantity, and energy potential. Development of a standardized methodology for consistent inventorying of biomass resources fosters research and business development of promising technologies that are compatible with the state's biomass resource base. (2) A unique interactive decision support tool that allows for systematic bioenergy analysis and evaluation of policy alternatives through the generation of biomass inventory and energy potential data for a wide variety of feedstocks and applicable technologies, using New Jersey as a case study. Development of a database that can assess the major components of a bioenergy system in one tool allows for easy evaluation of technology, feedstock and policy options. The methodology and decision support tool is applicable to other states and regions (with location specific modifications), thus contributing to the achievement of state and federal goals of renewable energy utilization. (3) Development of policy recommendations based on the results of the decision support tool that will help to guide New Jersey into a sustainable renewable energy future. The database developed in this research represents the first ever assessment of bioenergy potential for New Jersey. It can serve as a foundation for future research and modifications that could increase its power as a more robust policy analysis tool. As such, the current database is not able to perform analysis of tradeoffs across broad policy objectives such as economic development vs. CO2 emissions, or energy independence vs. source reduction of solid waste. Instead, it operates one level below that with comparisons of kWh or

  14. Development of an Automated Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

    SciTech Connect

    Cetiner, Sacit M.; Muhlheim, Michael David; Flanagan, George F.; Fugate, David L.; Kisner, Roger A.

    2014-09-01

    This technical report was generated as a product of the Supervisory Control for Multi-Modular Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Plants project within the Instrumentation, Control and Human-Machine Interface technology area under the Advanced Small Modular Reactor (AdvSMR) Research and Development Program of the US Department of Energy. The report documents the definition of strategies, functional elements, and the structural architecture of a supervisory control system for multi-modular AdvSMR plants. This research activity advances the state of the art by incorporating real-time, probabilistic-based decision-making into the supervisory control system architectural layers through the introduction of a tiered-plant system approach. The report provides background information on the state of the art of automated decision-making, including the description of existing methodologies. It then presents a description of a generalized decision-making framework, upon which the supervisory control decision-making algorithm is based. The probabilistic portion of automated decision-making is demonstrated through a simple hydraulic loop example.

  15. Decision-making theories as tools for interpreting student behavior during a scientific inquiry simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aikenhead, Glen S.

    The study investigated the predictive ability of two sociological theories of group decision making, the social decision scheme (SDS) and the valence distribution (DV) model. The theories were applied to a normal classroom setting of grade-9 and -10 students (N = 159) involved in a scientific inquiry - a simulation of scientific decision making. In their attempt to resolve conceptual conflicts concerning a pendulum's period, the students worked towards a consensus. It was discovered that student beliefs at the end of the simulation deviated from this group consensus. Neither the SDS or the DV theories could account for this result, except in one extreme case. The psychological state of the decision makers (vigilant, hypervigilant, etc.) was mildly associated with this deviation. The predictive function of the SDS and DV models was apparently severely hampered by the natural complexities common to classroom interactions. However, the study did illuminate factors that likely affect conceptual change in the context of classroom group decision making; and the study discovered strategies which students invented in order to maintain their alternative conceptions of motion related to the pendulum, in the face of conflicting evidence. These results are discussed in terms of the students' participation in the scientific inquiry.

  16. Decision analysis: a tool to guide the R and D selection of alternative energy sources

    SciTech Connect

    Kriz, T.

    1980-05-01

    The array of alternative energy sources which are vying for the federal government's R and D dollar is formidable when compared to the politically acceptable amount which can be used to fund the research. To guide how these funds should be dispersed, a rational, defensible procedure is needed which can repeatedly be applied as new technologies and new information become available. The procedure advanced in this paper is a decision analysis technique known as multi attribute decision analysis (MADA) and its use is illustrated in an evaluation and ranking of solar thermal electric power generating systems. Since the ultimate purchase decision is made in the market place, the preferences of potential users have been sampled and brought to bear on the ranking. The focus of this description is on the formulation of the problem structure and the decision model, the treatment of uncertainty, and how the results relate to the questions asked by and of the Department of Energy, which funded the study. A final note proposes how decision analysis can be used to address the broader questions of choice among competing technologies with cautions concerning misuse of the procedure.

  17. Healthcare Cost Savings Estimator Tool for Chronic Disease Self-Management Program: A New Tool for Program Administrators and Decision Makers

    PubMed Central

    Ahn, SangNam; Smith, Matthew Lee; Altpeter, Mary; Post, Lindsey; Ory, Marcia G.

    2015-01-01

    Chronic disease self-management education (CDSME) programs have been delivered to more than 100,000 older Americans with chronic conditions. As one of the Stanford suite of evidence-based CDSME programs, the chronic disease self-management program (CDSMP) has been disseminated in diverse populations and settings. The objective of this paper is to introduce a practical, universally applicable tool to assist program administrators and decision makers plan implementation efforts and make the case for continued program delivery. This tool was developed utilizing data from a recent National Study of CDSMP to estimate national savings associated with program participation. Potential annual healthcare savings per CDSMP participant were calculated based on averted emergency room visits and hospitalizations. While national data can be utilized to estimate cost savings, the tool has built-in features allowing users to tailor calculations based on their site-specific data. Building upon the National Study of CDSMP’s documented potential savings of $3.3 billion in healthcare costs by reaching 5% of adults with one or more chronic conditions, two heuristic case examples were also explored based on different population projections. The case examples show how a small county and large metropolitan city were not only able to estimate healthcare savings ($38,803 for the small county; $732,290 for the large metropolitan city) for their existing participant populations but also to project significant healthcare savings if they plan to reach higher proportions of middle-aged and older adults. Having a tool to demonstrate the monetary value of CDSMP can contribute to the ongoing dissemination and sustainability of such community-based interventions. Next steps will be creating a user-friendly, internet-based version of Healthcare Cost Savings Estimator Tool: CDSMP, followed by broadening the tool to consider cost savings for other evidence-based programs. PMID:25964946

  18. Rapid decision tool to predict earthquake destruction in Sumatra by using first motion study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhakta, Shardul Sanjay

    The main idea of this project is to build an interactive and smart Geographic Information system tool which can help predict intensity of real time earthquakes in Sumatra Island of Indonesia. The tool has an underlying intelligence to predict the intensity of an earthquake depending on analysis of similar earthquakes in the past in that specific region. Whenever an earthquake takes place in Sumatra, a First Motion Study is conducted; this decides its type, depth, latitude and longitude. When the user inputs this information into the input string, the tool will try to find similar earthquakes with a similar First Motion Survey and depth. It will do a survey of similar earthquakes and predict if this real time earthquake can be disastrous or not. This tool has been developed in JAVA. I have used MOJO (Map Objects JAVA Objects) to show map of Indonesia and earthquake locations in the form of points. ESRI has created MOJO which is a set of JAVA API's. The Indonesia map, earthquake location points and its co-relation was all designed using MOJO. MOJO is a powerful tool which made it easy to design the tool. This tool is easy to use and the user has to input only a few parameters for the end result. I hope this tool justifies its use in prediction of earthquakes and help save lives in Sumatra.

  19. WMOST: A tool for assessing cost-benefits of watershed management decisions affecting coastal resilience

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST v.1) was released by the US Environmental Protection Agency in December 2013 (http://www2.epa.gov/exposure-assessment-models/wmost-10-download-page). The objective of WMOST is to serve as a public-domain screening tool th...

  20. The Effect of Previsit Education in Breast Cancer Patients: A Study of a Shared-decision-making Tool.

    PubMed

    Serpico, Victoria; Liepert, Amy E; Boucher, Kenneth; Fouts, Diane L; Anderson, Layla; Pell, Joyce; Neumayer, Leigh

    2016-03-01

    To enhance shared decision-making for patients with breast cancer, we developed an evidence-based educational breast cancer video (BCV) providing an overview of breast cancer biology, prognostic indicators, and surgical treatment options while introducing health care choice. By providing patients access to a BCV with information necessary to make informed surgical decisions before seeing a surgeon, we aimed to increase patient participation in the decision-making process, while decreasing distress. Patients with a new diagnosis of breast cancer were provided a link to the BCV. Group 1 participated in online pre- and postvideo questionnaires, with the BCV embedded in between. The questionnaires evaluated self-reported baseline knowledge of breast cancer and perceived distress related to the diagnosis. Changes in self-reported responses were analyzed using the Wilcoxon matched pairs test. Group 2 received a survey collecting demographics, decision-making information, and perceptions of the BCV at the time of clinic visit before meeting the surgeon. Group 1 included 69 subjects with 62 per cent reporting improved knowledge and 30 per cent reporting reduced distress in regard to their breast cancer diagnosis. Group 2 included 87 subjects; 94 to 98 per cent felt the BCV provided information and stimulated thoughts and questions to assist in breast cancer treatment decision-making. The BCV was positively received by participants and feasible to implement into clinical practice. Evidence-based media tools improve knowledge and reduce distress in patients with a new diagnosis of breast cancer as well as contributing to the shared decision-making process. PMID:27099063

  1. Computer Simulation as a Tool for Assessing Decision-Making in Pandemic Influenza Response Training

    PubMed Central

    Leaming, James M.; Adoff, Spencer; Terndrup, Thomas E.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: We sought to develop and test a computer-based, interactive simulation of a hypothetical pandemic influenza outbreak. Fidelity was enhanced with integrated video and branching decision trees, built upon the 2007 federal planning assumptions. We conducted a before-and-after study of the simulation effectiveness to assess the simulations' ability to assess participants' beliefs regarding their own hospitals' mass casualty incident preparedness. Methods: Development: Using a Delphi process, we finalized a simulation that serves up a minimum of over 50 key decisions to 6 role-players on networked laptops in a conference area. The simulation played out an 8-week scenario, beginning with pre-incident decisions. Testing: Role-players and trainees (N=155) were facilitated to make decisions during the pandemic. Because decision responses vary, the simulation plays out differently, and a casualty counter quantifies hypothetical losses. The facilitator reviews and critiques key factors for casualty control, including effective communications, working with external organizations, development of internal policies and procedures, maintaining supplies and services, technical infrastructure support, public relations and training. Pre- and post-survey data were compared on trainees. Results: Post-simulation trainees indicated a greater likelihood of needing to improve their organization in terms of communications, mass casualty incident planning, public information and training. Participants also recognized which key factors required immediate attention at their own home facilities. Conclusion: The use of a computer-simulation was effective in providing a facilitated environment for determining the perception of preparedness, evaluating general preparedness concepts and introduced participants to critical decisions involved in handling a regional pandemic influenza surge. PMID:23687542

  2. A web-based tool to engage stakeholders in informing research planning for future decisions on emerging materials.

    PubMed

    Powers, Christina M; Grieger, Khara D; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Meacham, Connie A; Gurevich, Gerald; Lassiter, Meredith Gooding; Money, Eric S; Lloyd, Jennifer M; Beaulieu, Stephen M

    2014-02-01

    Prioritizing and assessing risks associated with chemicals, industrial materials, or emerging technologies is a complex problem that benefits from the involvement of multiple stakeholder groups. For example, in the case of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), scientific uncertainties exist that hamper environmental, health, and safety (EHS) assessments. Therefore, alternative approaches to standard EHS assessment methods have gained increased attention. The objective of this paper is to describe the application of a web-based, interactive decision support tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) in a pilot study on ENMs. The piloted tool implements U.S. EPA's comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) approach to prioritize research gaps. When pursued, such research priorities can result in data that subsequently improve the scientific robustness of risk assessments and inform future risk management decisions. Pilot results suggest that the tool was useful in facilitating multi-stakeholder prioritization of research gaps. Results also provide potential improvements for subsequent applications. The outcomes of future CEAWeb applications with larger stakeholder groups may inform the development of funding opportunities for emerging materials across the scientific community (e.g., National Science Foundation Science to Achieve Results [STAR] grants, National Institutes of Health Requests for Proposals). PMID:24176714

  3. The Clinical Intuition Exploration Guide: A Decision-Making Tool for Counselors and Supervisors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeffrey, Aaron

    2012-01-01

    Clinical intuition is a common experience among counselors, yet many do not know what to do with intuition when it occurs. This article reviews the role intuition plays in clinical work and presents the research-based Clinical Intuition Exploration Guide to help counselors navigate the decision-making process. The guide consists of self-reflection…

  4. An Analysis of the EPA Report on Pipeline Renewal Decision Making Tools and Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Few DSS are commercially available for technology selection as most utilities make decisions based on in-house and consultant expertise (Matthews et al., 2011). This review presents some of the models proposed over the past 15 years for selecting technologies in the U.S. and wor...

  5. Using Modern Digital Photography Tools to Guide Management Decisions on Forested Land

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craft, Brandon; Barlow, Rebecca; Kush, John; Hemard, Charles

    2016-01-01

    Forestland management depends on assessing changes that occur over time. Long-term photo point monitoring is a low-cost method for documenting these changes. Using forestry as an example, this article highlights the idea that long-term photo point monitoring can be used to improve many types of land management decision making. Guidance on…

  6. The Potato Systems Planner: A Successful Decision Support Tool for Growers

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An interdisciplinary team evaluated 14 cropping systems for their impacts on potato yield and quality, nutrient availability, plant diseases, soil microorganisms, potential profitability, economic risk, and other factors. Results were integrated into the “Potato Systems Planner” decision support to...

  7. Developing and Testing an Online Tool for Teaching GIS Concepts Applied to Spatial Decision-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carver, Steve; Evans, Andy; Kingston, Richard

    2004-01-01

    The development and testing of a Web-based GIS e-learning resource is described. This focuses on the application of GIS for siting a nuclear waste disposal facility and the associated principles of spatial decision-making using Boolean and weighted overlay methods. Initial student experiences in using the system are analysed as part of a research…

  8. The drought calculator: decision support tool for predicting forage growth during drought

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Drought Calculator (DC), a spreadsheet-based decision support system, was developed to help ranchers and range managers predict reductions in forage production due to drought. Forage growth potential (FGP) is predicted as a weighted average of monthly precipitation during the spring. Precipita...

  9. Analysis of Wastewater and Water System Renewal Decision-Making Tools and Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    In regards to the development of software for decision support for pipeline renewal, most of the attention to date has been paid to the development of asset management models which help an owner decide on which portions of a system to prioritize for needed actions. There has not ...

  10. Inexpensive Tools To Quantify And Map Vegetative Cover For Large-Scale Research Or Management Decisions.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Vegetative cover can be quantified quickly and consistently and often at lower cost with image analysis of color digital images than with visual assessments. Image-based mapping of vegetative cover for large-scale research and management decisions can now be considered with the accuracy of these met...

  11. Toward the development of decision supporting tools that can be used for safe production and use of nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Som, Claudia; Nowack, Bernd; Krug, Harald F; Wick, Peter

    2013-03-19

    comparable risk assessment ("approximate" risk assessment). Researchers have already performed risk-based evaluations of nanomaterials grounded on the comparison of exposure concentrations with no-effect levels (as required for chemical risk assessment), examining generic nanomaterials such as "nano-TiO₂" but not specific forms or modifications. Even though these data sets on hazard and exposure are incomplete, they already provide the basis to illustrate the current state of knowledge and uncertainties. Therefore industry and applied researchers can calculate the probability that an adverse effect might occur and begin to balance the benefits and potential risks of an innovation. Based on the increasing numbers of nanotoxicology publications and funding programs, this Account reviews the decision support approaches that already exist to safely implement engineered nanomaterials during an early phase of innovation. PMID:23110540

  12. Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

    1995-06-01

    This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ``scores`` and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process.

  13. Software Tools For Building Decision-support Models For Flood Emergency Situations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garrote, L.; Molina, M.; Ruiz, J. M.; Mosquera, J. C.

    The SAIDA decision-support system was developed by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment to provide assistance to decision-makers during flood situations. SAIDA has been tentatively implemented in two test basins: Jucar and Guadalhorce, and the Ministry is currently planning to have it implemented in all major Spanish basins in a few years' time. During the development cycle of SAIDA, the need for providing as- sistance to end-users in model definition and calibration was clearly identified. System developers usually emphasise abstraction and generality with the goal of providing a versatile software environment. End users, on the other hand, require concretion and specificity to adapt the general model to their local basins. As decision-support models become more complex, the gap between model developers and users gets wider: Who takes care of model definition, calibration and validation?. Initially, model developers perform these tasks, but the scope is usually limited to a few small test basins. Before the model enters operational stage, end users must get involved in model construction and calibration, in order to gain confidence in the model recommendations. However, getting the users involved in these activities is a difficult task. The goal of this re- search is to develop representation techniques for simulation and management models in order to define, develop and validate a mechanism, supported by a software envi- ronment, oriented to provide assistance to the end-user in building decision models for the prediction and management of river floods in real time. The system is based on three main building blocks: A library of simulators of the physical system, an editor to assist the user in building simulation models, and a machine learning method to calibrate decision models based on the simulation models provided by the user.

  14. Developing a Physiotherapy-Specific Preliminary Clinical Decision-Making Tool for Oxygen Titration: A Modified Delphi Study

    PubMed Central

    Duong, Michelle; Bertin, Kendra; Henry, Renee; Singh, Deepti; Timmins, Nolla; Brooks, Dina; Mathur, Sunita

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Purpose: To develop and evaluate a preliminary clinical decision-making tool (CDMT) to assist physiotherapists in titrating oxygen for acutely ill adults in Ontario. Methods: A panel of 14 experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists was recruited. Factors relating to oxygen titration were identified using a modified Delphi technique. Four rounds of questionnaires were conducted, during which the goals were to (1) generate factors, (2) reduce factors and debate contentious factors, (3) finalize factors and develop the preliminary CDMT, and (4) evaluate the usability of the tool in a clinical context. Results: The panel reached consensus on a total of 89 factors, which were compiled to create the preliminary CDMT. The global tool reached consensus for sensibility, receiving a mean score of 6/7 on a 7-point Likert-type scale (1=unacceptable; 7=excellent). Five of the nine individual components of evaluation of the tool achieved scores ≥6.0; the remaining four had mean scores between 5.4 and 5.9. Conclusion: This study produced a preliminary CDMT for oxygen titration, which the panel agreed was highly comprehensible and globally sensible. Further research is necessary to evaluate the sensibility and applicability of the tool in a clinical setting. PMID:25125782

  15. Statistical decision from k test series with particular focus on population genetics tools: a DIY notice.

    PubMed

    De Meeûs, Thierry

    2014-03-01

    In population genetics data analysis, researchers are often faced to the problem of decision making from a series of tests of the same null hypothesis. This is the case when one wants to test differentiation between pathogens found on different host species sampled from different locations (as many tests as number of locations). Many procedures are available to date but not all apply to all situations. Finding which tests are significant or if the whole series is significant, when tests are independent or not do not require the same procedures. In this note I describe several procedures, among the simplest and easiest to undertake, that should allow decision making in most (if not all) situations population geneticists (or biologists) should meet, in particular in host-parasite systems. PMID:24444592

  16. Development of Environmental Decision Support System: Unifying Cross-Discipline Data Access Through Open Source Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freeman, S.; Darmenova, K.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

    2012-12-01

    A common theme when it comes to accessing climate and environmental datasets is that it can be difficult to answer the five basic questions: Who, What, When, Where, and Why. Sometimes even the act of locating a data set or determining how it was generated can prove difficult. It is even more challenging for non-scientific individuals such as planners and policy makers who need to access and include such information in their work. Our Environmental Decision Support System (EDSS) attempts to address this issue by integrating several open source packages to create a simple yet robust web application for conglomerating, searching, viewing, and downloading environmental information for both scientists and decision makers alike. The system is comprised of several open source components, each playing an important role in the EDSS. The Geoportal web application provides an intuitive interface for searching and managing metadata ingested from data sets/data sources. The GeoServer and ncWMS web applications provide overlays and information for visual presentations of the data through web mapping services (WMS) by ingesting ESRI shapefiles, NetCDF, and HDF files. Users of the EDSS can browse the catalog of available products, enter a simple search string, or even constrain searches by temporal and spatial extents. Combined with a custom visualization web application, the EDSS provides a simple yet efficient means for users to not only access and manipulate climate and environmental data, but also trace the data source and the analytical methods used in the final decision aids products.

  17. Risk-based parameter selection for short-term reservoir operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simonovic, Slobodan P.; Venema, Henry D.; Burn, Donald H.

    1992-02-01

    A methodology has been developed to determine the optimal operating horizon for short-term reservoir operation. The modelling procedure includes: (1) an adaptive forecasting algorithm; (2) a real-time reservoir operation model; (3) a multiobjective compromise programming algorithm. The compromise programming algorithm utilizes a multiobjective compromise between the conflicting objectives of hydrologic forecast reliability and reservoir operation penalties. The algorithm requires predetermined weights defining the relative importance of the two objectives. This paper presents a risk-based methodology developed to help a decision maker in selecting the appropriate weights. Reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency are used as three risk-based criteria for assisting in selection of the weights. The methodology is presented in the form of a rule-based system designed to aid the user in the selection process. The methodology is illustrated through an application of the technique to the operation of Green Reservoir in Kentucky. The reservoir model is implemented for four different historical periods and its performance in terms of total penalties, reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency is presented as a function of the multi-objective weighting parameters. The rule-based expert system is then used for deriving recommendations regarding the selection of appropriate weights. The paper also discusses the rule-based expert system development tool, used in this research.

  18. 2D Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling Tool for River Restoration Decision Analysis: A Quantitative Approach to Project Prioritization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandrowski, D.; Lai, Y.; Bradley, N.; Gaeuman, D. A.; Murauskas, J.; Som, N. A.; Martin, A.; Goodman, D.; Alvarez, J.

    2014-12-01

    In the field of river restoration sciences there is a growing need for analytical modeling tools and quantitative processes to help identify and prioritize project sites. 2D hydraulic models have become more common in recent years and with the availability of robust data sets and computing technology, it is now possible to evaluate large river systems at the reach scale. The Trinity River Restoration Program is now analyzing a 40 mile segment of the Trinity River to determine priority and implementation sequencing for its Phase II rehabilitation projects. A comprehensive approach and quantitative tool has recently been developed to analyze this complex river system referred to as: 2D-Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling (2D-HBLM). This tool utilizes various hydraulic output parameters combined with biological, ecological, and physical metrics at user-defined spatial scales. These metrics and their associated algorithms are the underpinnings of the 2D-HBLM habitat module used to evaluate geomorphic characteristics, riverine processes, and habitat complexity. The habitat metrics are further integrated into a comprehensive Logic Model framework to perform statistical analyses to assess project prioritization. The Logic Model will analyze various potential project sites by evaluating connectivity using principal component methods. The 2D-HBLM tool will help inform management and decision makers by using a quantitative process to optimize desired response variables with balancing important limiting factors in determining the highest priority locations within the river corridor to implement restoration projects. Effective river restoration prioritization starts with well-crafted goals that identify the biological objectives, address underlying causes of habitat change, and recognizes that social, economic, and land use limiting factors may constrain restoration options (Bechie et. al. 2008). Applying natural resources management actions, like restoration prioritization, is

  19. A decision support tool to compare waterborne and foodborne infection and/or illness risks associated with climate change.

    PubMed

    Schijven, Jack; Bouwknegt, Martijn; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Rutjes, Saskia; Sudre, Bertrand; Suk, Jonathan E; Semenza, Jan C

    2013-12-01

    Climate change may impact waterborne and foodborne infectious disease, but to what extent is uncertain. Estimating climate-change-associated relative infection risks from exposure to viruses, bacteria, or parasites in water or food is critical for guiding adaptation measures. We present a computational tool for strategic decision making that describes the behavior of pathogens using location-specific input data under current and projected climate conditions. Pathogen-pathway combinations are available for exposure to norovirus, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, and noncholera Vibrio species via drinking water, bathing water, oysters, or chicken fillets. Infection risk outcomes generated by the tool under current climate conditions correspond with those published in the literature. The tool demonstrates that increasing temperatures lead to increasing risks for infection with Campylobacter from consuming raw/undercooked chicken fillet and for Vibrio from water exposure. Increasing frequencies of drought generally lead to an elevated infection risk of exposure to persistent pathogens such as norovirus and Cryptosporidium, but decreasing risk of exposure to rapidly inactivating pathogens, like Campylobacter. The opposite is the case with increasing annual precipitation; an upsurge of heavy rainfall events leads to more peaks in infection risks in all cases. The interdisciplinary tool presented here can be used to guide climate change adaptation strategies focused on infectious diseases. PMID:23781944

  20. Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-12-01

    The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also start putting attention to ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualization, but also requires understanding how decision makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real-time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision makers. Answers were collected and analyzed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if indeed we make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

  1. Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2013-06-01

    The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

  2. Guiding Independence: Developing a Research Tool to Support Student Decision Making in Selecting Online Information Sources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baildon, Rindi; Baildon, Mark

    2008-01-01

    The development and use of a research tool to guide fourth-grade students' use of information sources during a research project is described in this article. Over a period of five weeks, 21 fourth-grade students in an international school in Singapore participated in a study investigating the extent to which the use of a "research resource guide"…

  3. Priority screening of toxic chemicals and industry sectors in the U.S. toxics release inventory: a comparison of the life cycle impact-based and risk-based assessment tools developed by U.S. EPA.

    PubMed

    Lim, Seong-Rin; Lam, Carl W; Schoenung, Julie M

    2011-09-01

    Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) and Risk Assessment (RA) employ different approaches to evaluate toxic impact potential for their own general applications. LCIA is often used to evaluate toxicity potentials for corporate environmental management and RA is often used to evaluate a risk score for environmental policy in government. This study evaluates the cancer, non-cancer, and ecotoxicity potentials and risk scores of chemicals and industry sectors in the United States on the basis of the LCIA- and RA-based tools developed by U.S. EPA, and compares the priority screening of toxic chemicals and industry sectors identified with each method to examine whether the LCIA- and RA-based results lead to the same prioritization schemes. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) is applied as an LCIA-based screening approach with a focus on air and water emissions, and the Risk-Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) is applied in equivalent fashion as an RA-based screening approach. The U.S. Toxic Release Inventory is used as the dataset for this analysis, because of its general applicability to a comprehensive list of chemical substances and industry sectors. Overall, the TRACI and RSEI results do not agree with each other in part due to the unavailability of characterization factors and toxic scores for select substances, but primarily because of their different evaluation approaches. Therefore, TRACI and RSEI should be used together both to support a more comprehensive and robust approach to screening of chemicals for environmental management and policy and to highlight substances that are found to be of concern from both perspectives. PMID:21561706

  4. The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP): a national scale natural resources and conservation needs assessment and decision support tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, M.-V. V.; Norfleet, M. L.; Atwood, J. D.; Behrman, K. D.; Kiniry, J. R.; Arnold, J. G.; White, M. J.; Williams, J.

    2015-07-01

    The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) was initiated to quantify the impacts of agricultural conservation practices at the watershed, regional, and national scales across the United States. Representative cropland acres in all major U.S. watersheds were surveyed in 2003-2006 as part of the seminal CEAP Cropland National Assessment. Two process-based models, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender(APEX) and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), were applied to the survey data to provide a quantitative assessment of current conservation practice impacts, establish a benchmark against which future conservation trends and efforts could be measured, and identify outstanding conservation concerns. The flexibility of these models and the unprecedented amount of data on current conservation practices across the country enabled Cropland CEAP to meet its Congressional mandate of quantifying the value of current conservation practices. It also enabled scientifically grounded exploration of a variety of conservation scenarios, empowering CEAP to not only inform on past successes and additional needs, but to also provide a decision support tool to help guide future policy development and conservation practice decision making. The CEAP effort will repeat the national survey in 2015-2016, enabling CEAP to provide analyses of emergent conservation trends, outstanding needs, and potential costs and benefits of pursuing various treatment scenarios for all agricultural watersheds across the United States.

  5. Randomised controlled trial of clinical decision support tools to improve learning of evidence based medicine in medical students

    PubMed Central

    Leung, Gabriel M; Johnston, Janice M; Tin, Keith Y K; Wong, Irene O L; Ho, Lai-Ming; Lam, Wendy W T; Lam, Tai-Hing

    2003-01-01

    Objective To assess the educational effectiveness on learning evidence based medicine of a handheld computer clinical decision support tool compared with a pocket card containing guidelines and a control. Design Randomised controlled trial. Setting University of Hong Kong, 2001. Participants 169 fourth year medical students. Main outcome measures Factor and individual item scores from a validated questionnaire on five key self reported measures: personal application and current use of evidence based medicine; future use of evidence based medicine; use of evidence during and after clerking patients; frequency of discussing the role of evidence during teaching rounds; and self perceived confidence in clinical decision making. Results The handheld computer improved participants' educational experience with evidence based medicine the most, with significant improvements in all outcome scores. More modest improvements were found with the pocket card, whereas the control group showed no appreciable changes in any of the key outcomes. No significant deterioration was observed in the improvements even after withdrawal of the handheld computer during an eight week washout period, suggesting at least short term sustainability of effects. Conclusions Rapid and convenient access to valid and relevant evidence on a portable computing device can improve learning in evidence based medicine, increase current and future use of evidence, and boost students' confidence in clinical decision making. PMID:14604933

  6. Risk-based decision making in water resources 8

    SciTech Connect

    Haimes, Y.H.; Moser, D.A.; Stakhiv, E.Z.

    1998-07-01

    With regard to development issues, society practices a strong public awareness of risk: environmental risks, technological and natural risks, and human health and safety risks. The professional community is responding much more forcefully and knowledgeably as well, and in many instances is leading what has become a political debate. Legislative initiatives and risk assessment, climate change, El Nino, maintenance and rehabilitation, reliability of physical infrastructure, dams. water treatment plants, conservation programs, and other pertinent ecological issues are addressed.

  7. Emergence of viral diseases: mathematical modeling as a tool for infection control, policy and decision making.

    PubMed

    Louz, Derrick; Bergmans, Hans E; Loos, Birgit P; Hoeben, Rob C

    2010-08-01

    Mathematical modeling can be used for the development and implementation of infection control policy to combat outbreaks and epidemics of communicable viral diseases. Here an outline is provided of basic concepts and approaches used in mathematical modeling and parameterization of disease transmission. The use of mathematical models is illustrated, using the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic, the 2003 global severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic, and human influenza pandemics, as examples. This provides insights in the strengths, limitations, and weaknesses of the various models, and demonstrates their potential for supporting policy and decision making. PMID:20218764

  8. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, P. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Morrissey, K.; Plater, A. J.

    2015-02-01

    A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision-support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow) relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  9. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, P. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Morrissey, K.; Plater, A. J.

    2015-07-01

    A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high-level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms, and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open-source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB (Shallow Water And Boussinesq) models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising-sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow) relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  10. Development of decision tools to assess migration from plastic materials in contact with food.

    PubMed

    Gillet, G; Vitrac, O; Tissier, D; Saillard, P; Desobry, S

    2009-12-01

    Testing the specific migration limits of all substances intentionally added to polymer material according to European Union (EU) regulation is a time-consuming and expensive task. Although mathematical modeling offers an interesting alternative, it can significantly overestimate the migration in situations which are strongly conservative due to significant uncertainty in transport properties. In addition, its application is of little use for end-users or enforcement laboratories, which do not have access to the formulation. This paper revises the paradigm of migration modeling by combining modeling with deformulation experiments and iterative modeling in the framework of decision theory. The complete approach is illustrated for polyolefins in contact with 50% ethanol for eight typical migrants, including hindered phenolic antioxidants and low molecular weight surrogates. Results from a French ACTIA project on the identification of formulation fingerprints and on the prediction of partition coefficients with alcoholic and aqueous stimulants is described. When the true migration was close but still lower than the limit of concern, the proposed compact decision tree, including up to four sources of uncertainty, showed that the chance of demonstrating compliance was about 3 : 4 in the presence of one source of uncertainty, whereas it fell below 2 : 4 and 1 : 4 with two and three sources of uncertainty, respectively. The recommendations for further food packaging safety surveys and future developments are discussed. PMID:19938329

  11. A web-based neurological pain classifier tool utilizing Bayesian decision theory for pain classification in spinal cord injury patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verma, Sneha K.; Chun, Sophia; Liu, Brent J.

    2014-03-01

    Pain is a common complication after spinal cord injury with prevalence estimates ranging 77% to 81%, which highly affects a patient's lifestyle and well-being. In the current clinical setting paper-based forms are used to classify pain correctly, however, the accuracy of diagnoses and optimal management of pain largely depend on the expert reviewer, which in many cases is not possible because of very few experts in this field. The need for a clinical decision support system that can be used by expert and non-expert clinicians has been cited in literature, but such a system has not been developed. We have designed and developed a stand-alone tool for correctly classifying pain type in spinal cord injury (SCI) patients, using Bayesian decision theory. Various machine learning simulation methods are used to verify the algorithm using a pilot study data set, which consists of 48 patients data set. The data set consists of the paper-based forms, collected at Long Beach VA clinic with pain classification done by expert in the field. Using the WEKA as the machine learning tool we have tested on the 48 patient dataset that the hypothesis that attributes collected on the forms and the pain location marked by patients have very significant impact on the pain type classification. This tool will be integrated with an imaging informatics system to support a clinical study that will test the effectiveness of using Proton Beam radiotherapy for treating spinal cord injury (SCI) related neuropathic pain as an alternative to invasive surgical lesioning.

  12. Integrated Services Management System (ISMS): A management and decision making tool

    SciTech Connect

    Barber, D.S.; Brockman, D.L.; Buxton, L.D.

    1995-10-01

    This document provides information concerning the Integrated Services Management System (ISMS) that was developed for the Laboratories Services Division during the period February 1994 through May 1995. ISMS was developed as a formal method for centralized management of programs within the Division. With minor modifications, this system can be adapted for management of all overhead functions at SNL or for sector level program management. Included in this document are the reasons for the creation of this system as well as the resulting benefits. The ISMS consists of six interlinked processes; Issues Management, Task/Activity Planning, Work Decision, Commitment Management, Process/Project Management, and Performance Assessment. Those processes are described in detail within this document. Additionally, lessons learned and suggestions for future improvements are indicated.

  13. Development of a case tool to support decision based software development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wild, Christian J.

    1993-01-01

    A summary of the accomplishments of the research over the past year are presented. Achievements include: made demonstrations with DHC, a prototype supporting decision based software development (DBSD) methodology, for Paramax personnel at ODU; met with Paramax personnel to discuss DBSD issues, the process of integrating DBSD and Refinery and the porting process model; completed and submitted a paper describing DBSD paradigm to IFIP '92; completed and presented a paper describing the approach for software reuse at the Software Reuse Workshop in April 1993; continued to extend DHC with a project agenda, facility necessary for a better project management; completed a primary draft of the re-engineering process model for porting; created a logging form to trace all the activities involved in the process of solving the reengineering problem, and developed a primary chart with the problems involved by the reengineering process.

  14. Transportation Energy Futures: Key Opportunities and Tools for Decision Makers (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2012-12-01

    The Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project examines underexplored greenhouse gas-abatement and oil-savings opportunities by consolidating transportation energy knowledge, conducting advanced analysis, and exploring additional opportunities for sound strategic action. Led by NREL, in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory, the project's primary goal is to provide analysis to accompany DOE-EERE's long-term transportation energy planning by addressing high-priority questions, informing domestic decisions about transportation energy strategies, priorities, and investments. Research and analysis were conducted with an eye toward short-term actions that support long-term energy goals The project looks beyond technology to examine each key question in the context of the marketplace, consumer behavior, industry capabilities, and infrastructure. This updated fact sheet includes a new section on initial project findings.

  15. Mass Spectrometry Imaging as a Tool for Surgical Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Calligaris, David; Norton, Isaiah; Feldman, Daniel R.; Ide, Jennifer L.; Dunn, Ian F.; Eberlin, Livia S.; Cooks, R. Graham; Jolesz, Ferenc A.; Golby, Alexandra J.; Santagata, Sandro; Agar, Nathalie Y.

    2014-01-01

    Despite significant advances in image-guided therapy, surgeons are still too often left with uncertainty when deciding to remove tissue. This binary decision between removing and leaving tissue during surgery implies that the surgeon should be able to distinguish tumor from healthy tissue. In neurosurgery, current image-guidance approaches such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) combined with neuro-navigation offer a map as to where the tumor should be, but the only definitive method to characterize the tissue at stake is histopathology. While extremely valuable information is derived from this gold standard approach, it is limited to very few samples during surgery and is not practically used for the delineation of tumor margins. The development and implementation of faster, comprehensive and complementary approaches for tissue characterization are required to support surgical decision-making – an incremental and iterative process with tumor removed in multiple and often minute biopsies. The development of atmospheric pressure ionization sources makes it possible to analyze tissue specimens with little to no sample preparation. Here, we highlight the value of desorption electrospray ionization (DESI) as one of many available approaches for the analysis of surgical tissue. Twelve surgical samples resected from a patient during surgery were analyzed and diagnosed as glioblastoma (GBM) tumor or necrotic tissue by standard histopathology, and mass spectrometry results were further correlated to histopathology for critical validation of the approach. The use of a robust statistical approach reiterated results from the qualitative detection of potential biomarkers of these tissue types. The correlation of the MS and histopathology results to magnetic resonance images brings significant insight into tumor presentation that could not only serve to guide tumor resection, but that is worthy of more detailed studies on our understanding of tumor presentation on MRI. PMID

  16. Building Gateway Tools for Informed Decision Making: The Drought Risk Atlas and U.S. Drought Monitor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svoboda, M.; Fuchs, B.; Poulsen, C.; Nothwehr, J.; Owen, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (http://drought.unl.edu) has been working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) (http://drought.gov;) and other partners with a goal of developing tools to enhance drought risk management activities in the U.S. and around the world. The NDMC is a national center founded in 1995 and located at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The NDMC conducts basic and applied research, provides a variety of services and produces decision support applications. In addition, the NDMC is involved heavily in education, outreach and planning activities and maintains a number of operational drought-related tools and products including the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and the Drought Risk Atlas (DRA). The NDMC's recently launched Drought Risk Atlas (DRA) (http://droughtatlas.unl.edu) and the continually evolving U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu;) will be the focus of this presentation. The DRA was launched in 2014 in order to help better answer the common questions of "How does this drought compare to the Dust Bowl years or some other regional drought of record?", or "How often do we see a drought as severe as this?", and "Are we seeing trends in drought frequency?". Access to new digital data sources, geospatial tools and analyses, and dissemination through a web-based interface has allowed us to triple the original National Drought Atlas station sample size and roughly double the period of record in standing up the new DRA. Building off of feedback from the user community, the SPI, SPEI, PDSI, self-calibrated PDSI, Deciles and other climatology (to also include hydrology) products are included. It is anticipated that this tool will heighten awareness and enhance decision support activities with regards to drought risk for policy makers, resource managers, producers, planners, media and the public. Examples of the DRA

  17. Review of Electronic Decision-Support Tools for Diabetes Care: A Viable Option for Low- and Middle-Income Countries?

    PubMed Central

    Ali, Mohammed K; Shah, Seema; Tandon, Nikhil

    2011-01-01

    Context: Diabetes care is complex, requiring motivated patients, providers, and systems that enable guideline-based preventative care processes, intensive risk-factor control, and positive lifestyle choices. However, care delivery in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) is hindered by a compendium of systemic and personal factors. While electronic medical records (EMR) and computerized clinical decision-support systems (CDSS) have held great promise as interventions that will overcome system-level challenges to improving evidence-based health care delivery, evaluation of these quality improvement interventions for diabetes care in LMICs is lacking. Objective and Data Sources: We reviewed the published medical literature (systematic search of MEDLINE database supplemented by manual searches) to assess the quantifiable and qualitative impacts of combined EMR–CDSS tools on physician performance and patient outcomes and their applicability in LMICs. Study Selection and Data Extraction: Inclusion criteria prespecified the population (type 1 or 2 diabetes patients), intervention (clinical EMR–CDSS tools with enhanced functionalities), and outcomes (any process, self-care, or patient-level data) of interest. Case, review, or methods reports and studies focused on nondiabetes, nonclinical, or in-patient uses of EMR–CDSS were excluded. Quantitative and qualitative data were extracted from studies by separate single reviewers, respectively, and relevant data were synthesized. Results: Thirty-three studies met inclusion criteria, originating exclusively from high-income country settings. Among predominantly experimental study designs, process improvements were consistently observed along with small, variable improvements in risk-factor control, compared with baseline and/or control groups (where applicable). Intervention benefits varied by baseline patient characteristics, features of the EMR–CDSS interventions, motivation and access to technology among patients

  18. A group decision-making tool for the application of membrane technologies in different water reuse scenarios.

    PubMed

    Sadr, S M K; Saroj, D P; Kouchaki, S; Ilemobade, A A; Ouki, S K

    2015-06-01

    A global challenge of increasing concern is diminishing fresh water resources. A growing practice in many communities to supplement diminishing fresh water availability has been the reuse of water. Novel methods of treating polluted waters, such as membrane assisted technologies, have recently been developed and successfully implemented in many places. Given the diversity of membrane assisted technologies available, the current challenge is how to select a reliable alternative among numerous technologies for appropriate water reuse. In this research, a fuzzy logic based multi-criteria, group decision making tool has been developed. This tool has been employed in the selection of appropriate membrane treatment technologies for several non-potable and potable reuse scenarios. Robust criteria, covering technical, environmental, economic and socio-cultural aspects, were selected, while 10 different membrane assisted technologies were assessed in the tool. The results show this approach capable of facilitating systematic and rigorous analysis in the comparison and selection of membrane assisted technologies for advanced wastewater treatment and reuse. PMID:25839744

  19. Development of a decision-support tool for identifying the most suitable approach to achieve nitrate source determination.

    PubMed

    Fenech, C; Nolan, K; Rock, L; Morrissey, A

    2014-11-01

    Numerous approaches have been suggested for differentiating point and diffuse sources of nitrate contamination, including nitrate stable isotopes, microbiological analyses, genetic markers and chemical markers. Each approach has its own strengths and limitations. As a result, the most appropriate approach to use largely depends upon the scenario and the context of the study. However, available data on nitrate source determination is highly fragmented and approach dependent, with very little if any interface between the different techniques. This makes it difficult for stakeholders to identify the most suitable approach to adopt in a specific scenario. Therefore, this paper examines the development and application of a decision-support tool to support environmental forensics studies for nitrate contamination. In particular, this tool can support policy makers, regulators and operators within the field in understanding the environmental hazards and processes resulting from nitrate contamination, and to implement appropriate actions for limiting the impacts that may arise from such contamination. The tool was developed using the IDEF0 modeling system, and evaluated by interviewing key stakeholders who suggested a number of important implications for practice. PMID:25232953

  20. The Pelagics Habitat Analysis Module (PHAM): Decision Support Tools for Pelagic Fisheries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong, E. M.; Harrison, D. P.; Kiefer, D.; O'Brien, F.; Hinton, M.; Kohin, S.; Snyder, S.

    2009-12-01

    PHAM is a project funded by NASA to integrate satellite imagery and circulation models into the management of commercial and threatened pelagic species. Specifically, the project merges data from fishery surveys, and fisheries catch and effort data with satellite imagery and circulation models to define the habitat of each species. This new information on habitat will then be used to inform population distribution and models of population dynamics that are used for management. During the first year of the project, we created two prototype modules. One module, which was developed for the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, is designed to help improve information available to manage the tuna fisheries of the eastern Pacific Ocean. The other module, which was developed for the Coastal Pelagics Division of the Southwest Fishery Science Center, assists management of by-catch of mako, blue, and thresher sharks along the Californian coast. Both modules were built with the EASy marine geographic information system, which provides a 4 dimensional (latitude, longitude, depth, and time) home for integration of the data. The projects currently provide tools for automated downloading and geo-referencing of satellite imagery of sea surface temperature, height, and chlorophyll concentrations; output from JPL’s ECCO2 global circulation model and its ROM California current model; and gridded data from fisheries and fishery surveys. It also provides statistical tools for defining species habitat from these and other types of environmental data. These tools include unbalanced ANOVA, EOF analysis of satellite imagery, and multivariate search routines for fitting fishery data to transforms of the environmental data. Output from the projects consists of dynamic maps of the distribution of the species that are driven by the time series of satellite imagery and output from the circulation models. It also includes relationships between environmental variables and recruitment. During

  1. Ultrasound as a decision-making tool in abdominal surgery in cows.

    PubMed

    Braun, Ueli

    2005-03-01

    In many patients, abdominal ultrasonography is an excellent diagnostic and prognostic tool. It aids in deciding whether the animal should undergo surgical or medical treatment or be slaughtered. This is particularly true in cattle with traumatic reticuloperitonitis (in combination with radiography of the reticulum) or with a tentative diagnosis of left or right displacement of the abomasum. Ultrasound also is an excellent aid for identification of ileus of the small and large intestine, liver abscesses, cholestasis, various urinary tract disorders, and the different forms of ascites. PMID:15718086

  2. Blended near-optimal tools for flexible water resources decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenberg, David

    2015-04-01

    State-of-the-art systems analysis techniques focus on efficiently finding optimal solutions. Yet an optimal solution is optimal only for the static modelled issues and managers often seek near-optimal alternatives that address un-modelled or changing objectives, preferences, limits, uncertainties, and other issues. Early on, Modelling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) formalized near-optimal as performance within a tolerable deviation from the optimal objective function value and identified a few maximally-different alternatives that addressed select un-modelled issues. This paper presents new stratified, Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling and parallel coordinate plotting tools that generate and communicate the structure and full extent of the near-optimal region to an optimization problem. Plot controls allow users to interactively explore region features of most interest. Controls also streamline the process to elicit un-modelled issues and update the model formulation in response to elicited issues. Use for a single-objective water quality management problem at Echo Reservoir, Utah identifies numerous and flexible practices to reduce the phosphorus load to the reservoir and maintain close-to-optimal performance. Compared to MGA, the new blended tools generate more numerous alternatives faster, more fully show the near-optimal region, help elicit a larger set of un-modelled issues, and offer managers greater flexibility to cope in a changing world.

  3. NOAA Coral Reef Watch: Decision Support Tools for Coral Reef Managers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rauenzahn, J.; Eakin, C.; Skirving, W. J.; Burgess, T.; Christensen, T.; Heron, S. F.; Li, J.; Liu, G.; Morgan, J.; Nim, C.; Parker, B. A.; Strong, A. E.

    2010-12-01

    A multitude of natural and anthropogenic stressors exert substantial influence on coral reef ecosystems and contribute to bleaching events, slower coral growth, infectious disease outbreaks, and mortality. Satellite-based observations can monitor, at a global scale, environmental conditions that influence both short-term and long-term coral reef ecosystem health. From research to operations, NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) incorporates paleoclimatic, in situ, and satellite-based biogeophysical data to provide near-real-time and forecast information and tools to help managers, researchers, and other stakeholders interpret coral health and stress. CRW has developed an operational, near-real-time product suite that includes sea surface temperature (SST), SST time series data, SST anomaly charts, coral bleaching HotSpots, and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW). Bi-weekly global SST analyses are based on operational nighttime-only SST at 50-km resolution. CRW is working to develop high-resolution products to better address thermal stress on finer scales and is applying climate models to develop seasonal outlooks of coral bleaching. Automated Satellite Bleaching Alerts (SBAs), available at Virtual Stations worldwide, provide the only global early-warning system to notify managers of changing reef environmental conditions. Currently, CRW is collaborating with numerous domestic and international partners to develop new tools to address ocean acidification, infectious diseases of corals, combining light and temperature to detect coral photosystem stress, and other parameters.

  4. Estimating costs of traffic crashes and crime: tools for informed decision making.

    PubMed

    Streff, F M; Molnar, L J; Cohen, M A; Miller, T R; Rossman, S B

    1992-01-01

    Traffic crashes and crime both impose significant economic and social burdens through injury and loss of life, as well as property damage and loss. Efforts to reduce crashes and crime often result in competing demands on limited public resources. Comparable and up-to-date cost data on crashes and crime contribute to informed decisions about allocation of these resources in important ways. As a first step, cost data provide information about the magnitude of the problems of crashes and crime by allowing us to estimate associated dollar losses to society. More importantly, cost data on crashes and crime are essential to evaluating costs and benefits of various policy alternatives that compete for resources. This paper presents the first comparable comprehensive cost estimates for crashes and crime and applies them to crash and crime incidence data for Michigan to generate dollar losses for the state. An example illustrates how cost estimates can be used to evaluate costs and benefits of crash-reduction and crime-reduction policies in making resource allocation decisions. Traffic crash and selected index crime incidence data from the calendar year 1988 were obtained from the Michigan State Police. Costs for crashes and index crimes were generated and applied to incidence data to estimate dollar losses from crashes and index crimes for the state of Michigan. In 1988, index crimes in Michigan resulted in $0.8 billion in monetary costs and $2.4 billion in total monetary and nonmonetary quality-of-life costs (using the willingness-to-pay approach). Traffic crashes in Michigan resulted in $2.3 billion in monetary costs and $7.1 billion in total monetary and nonmonetary quality-of-life costs, nearly three times the costs of index crimes. Based on dollar losses to the state, the magnitude of the problem of traffic crashes clearly exceeded that of index crimes in Michigan in 1988. From a policy perspective, summing the total dollar losses from crashes or crime is of less

  5. A method to assess how interactive water simulation tools influence transdisciplinary decision-making processes in water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leskens, Johannes

    2015-04-01

    In modern water management, often transdisciplinary work sessions are organized in which various stakeholders participate to jointly define problems, choose measures and divide responsibilities to take actions. Involved stakeholders are for example policy analysts or decision-makers from municipalities, water boards or provinces, representatives of pressure groups and researchers from knowledge institutes. Parallel to this increasing attention for transdisciplinary work sessions, we see a growing availability of interactive IT-tools that can be applied during these sessions. For example, dynamic flood risk maps have become recently available that allow users during a work sessions to instantaneously assess the impact of storm surges or dam breaches, displayed on digital maps. Other examples are serious games, realistic visualizations and participatory simulations. However, the question is if and how these interactive IT-tools contribute to better decision-making. To assess this, we take the process of knowledge construction during a work session as a measure for the quality of decision-making. Knowledge construction can be defined as the process in which ideas, perspectives and opinions of different stakeholders, all having their own expertise and experience, are confronted with each other and new shared meanings towards water management issues are created. We present an assessment method to monitor the process of knowledge construction during work sessions in water management in which interactive IT tools are being used. The assessment method is based on a literature review, focusing on studies in which knowledge construction was monitored in other contexts that water management. To test the applicability of the assessment method, we applied it during a multi-stakeholder work session in Westland, located in the southwest of the Netherlands. The discussions during the work session were observed by camera. All statements, expressed by the various members of a

  6. Decision making in Germany: is health economic evaluation as a supporting tool a sleeping beauty?

    PubMed

    Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Sandmann, Frank Gerd; Zhou, Min; Ten Thoren, Corinna; Schwalm, Anja; Weigel, Carolin; Balg, Christiane; Mensch, Alexander; Mostardt, Sarah; Seidl, Astrid; Lhachimi, Stefan K

    2014-01-01

    For many years, the legal situation within the statutory health insurance (SHI) system in Germany has allowed for health economic evaluations. There are various reasons why health economic evaluations have played virtually no role in decision making until now: to begin with, a method for the evaluation of the relation between benefits and costs which needed to be in accordance with the legal requirements had to be developed, the outcome of which was the efficiency frontier approach. Subsequent health care reforms have led to changing objectives and strategies. Currently, price negotiations of newly launched drugs are based on an early benefit assessment of dossiers submitted by pharmaceutical manufacturers. Other reasons might be the presently very comfortable financial situation of the statutory health insurance system as well as a historically grown societal fear and discomfort towards what is perceived to be a rationing of medicinal products. For the time being, it remains open how long the German health care system can afford to continue neglecting the benefits of health economic evaluations for drug and non-drug interventions, and when it will be time to wake this sleeping beauty. PMID:25444297

  7. Fact Sheets of CTAS and NASA Decision-Support Tools and Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Katharine

    2004-01-01

    Distributed Air/Ground (DAG) Traffic Management (TM) is an integrated operational concept in which flight deck crews, air traffic service providers and aeronautical operational control personnel use distributed decision-making to enable user preferences and increase system capacity, while meeting air traffic management (ATM) requirements. It is a possible operational mode under the Free Flight concept outlined by the RTCA Task Force 3. The goal of DAG-TM is to enhance user flexibility/efficiency and increase system capacity, without adversely affecting system safety or restricting user accessibility to the National Airspace System (NAS). DAG-TM will be accomplished with a human-centered operational paradigm enabled by procedural and technological innovations. These innovations include automation aids, information sharing and Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance (CNS) / ATM technologies. The DAG-TM concept is intended to eliminate static restrictions to the maximum extent possible. In this paradigm, users may plan and operate according to their preferences - as the rule rather than the exception - with deviations occumng eyond the year 2015. Out of a total of 15 concept elements, 4 have been selected for initial sutidies (see Key Elements in sidebar). DAG-TM research is being performed at Ames, Glenn, and Langley Research Centers.

  8. Considering Research Outcomes as Essential Tools for Medical Education Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Miller, Karen Hughes; Miller, Bonnie M; Karani, Reena

    2015-11-01

    As medical educators face the challenge of incorporating new content, learning methods, and assessment techniques into the curriculum, the need for rigorous medical education research to guide efficient and effective instructional planning increases. When done properly, well-designed education research can provide guidance for complex education decision making. In this Commentary, the authors consider the 2015 Research in Medical Education (RIME) research and review articles in terms of the critical areas in teaching and learning that they address. The broad categories include (1) assessment (the largest collection of RIME articles, including both feedback from learners and instructors and the reliability of learner assessment), (2) the institution's impact on the learning environment, (3) what can be learned from program evaluation, and (4) emerging issues in faculty development. While the articles in this issue are broad in scope and potential impact, the RIME committee noted few studies of sufficient rigor focusing on areas of diversity and diverse learners. Although challenging to investigate, the authors encourage continuing innovation in research focused on these important areas. PMID:26505095

  9. Development and evaluation of a comprehensive clinical decision support taxonomy: comparison of front-end tools in commercial and internally developed electronic health record systems

    PubMed Central

    Sittig, Dean F; Ash, Joan S; Feblowitz, Joshua; Meltzer, Seth; McMullen, Carmit; Guappone, Ken; Carpenter, Jim; Richardson, Joshua; Simonaitis, Linas; Evans, R Scott; Nichol, W Paul; Middleton, Blackford

    2011-01-01

    Background Clinical decision support (CDS) is a valuable tool for improving healthcare quality and lowering costs. However, there is no comprehensive taxonomy of types of CDS and there has been limited research on the availability of various CDS tools across current electronic health record (EHR) systems. Objective To develop and validate a taxonomy of front-end CDS tools and to assess support for these tools in major commercial and internally developed EHRs. Study design and methods We used a modified Delphi approach with a panel of 11 decision support experts to develop a taxonomy of 53 front-end CDS tools. Based on this taxonomy, a survey on CDS tools was sent to a purposive sample of commercial EHR vendors (n=9) and leading healthcare institutions with internally developed state-of-the-art EHRs (n=4). Results Responses were received from all healthcare institutions and 7 of 9 EHR vendors (response rate: 85%). All 53 types of CDS tools identified in the taxonomy were found in at least one surveyed EHR system, but only 8 functions were present in all EHRs. Medication dosing support and order facilitators were the most commonly available classes of decision support, while expert systems (eg, diagnostic decision support, ventilator management suggestions) were the least common. Conclusion We developed and validated a comprehensive taxonomy of front-end CDS tools. A subsequent survey of commercial EHR vendors and leading healthcare institutions revealed a small core set of common CDS tools, but identified significant variability in the remainder of clinical decision support content. PMID:21415065

  10. Science, science policy, and risk-based management

    SciTech Connect

    Midgley, L.P.

    1997-09-01

    Recent national awareness of the economic infeasibility of remediating hazardous waste sites to background levels has sparked increased interest in the role of science policy in the environmental risk assessment and risk management process. As individual states develop guidelines for addressing environmental risks at hazardous waste sites, the role of science policy decisions and uncertainty must be carefully evaluated to achieve long-term environmental goals and solutions that are economically feasible and optimally beneficial to all stakeholders. Amendment to Oregon Revised Statute 465.315 establishes policy and Utah Cleanup Action and Risk-Based Closure Standards sets requirements for risk-based cleanup and closure at sites where remediation or removal of hazardous constituents to background levels will not be achieved. This paper discusses the difficulties in effectively integrating potential current and future impacts on human health and the environment, technical feasibility, economic considerations, and political realities into environmental policy and standards, using these references as models. This paper considers the role of both objective and subjective criteria in the risk-based closure and management processes and makes suggestions for improving the system by which these sites may be reclaimed.

  11. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  12. Developing a Framework to Link Catchment Modelling tools to Decision Support Systems for Catchment Management and Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, Russell; Owen, Gareth

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few years a series of catchment monitoring studies in the UK have developed a wide range of tools to enable managers and planners to make informed decisions to target several key outcomes. These outcomes include the mitigation of diffuse pollution and the reduction of flood risk. Good progress has been but additional steps are still required to link together more detailed models that represent catchment processes with the decision support systems (often termed matrices; i.e. DSMs) which form the basis of these planning and management tools. Examples include: (i) the FARM tools developed by the PROACTIVE team at Newcastle University to assess different catchment management options for mitigating against flooding events, (ii) TOPMANAGE, a suite of algorithms that link with high resolution DEMs to enable surface flow pathways, having the potential to be mitigated by Natural Flood Management (NFM) features (in order to target diffuse pollution due to nutrients and sediments) to be identified. To date, these DSMs have not been underpinned by models that can be run in real-time to quantify the benefits in terms of measurable reductions in flood or nutrient pollution risks. Their use has therefore been mostly as qualitative assessment tools. This study aims to adapt an existing spreadsheet-based model, the CRAFT, in order for it to become fully coupled to a DSM approach. Previous catchment scale applications of the CRAFT have focussed on meso-scale studies where any management interventions at a local scale are unlikely to be detectable at the monitoring point (the catchment outlet). The model has however been reasonably successful in identifying potential flow and transport pathways that link the headwater subcatchments to the outlet. Furthermore, recent enhancements to the model enable features such as sedimentation ponds and lagoons that can trap and remove nutrients and sediments to be added, once data become available from different types of NFM

  13. Evaluating the value of a web-based natural medicine clinical decision tool at an academic medical center

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Consumer use of herbal and natural products (H/NP) is increasing, yet physicians are often unprepared to provide guidance due to lack of educational training. This knowledge deficit may place consumers at risk of clinical complications. We wished to evaluate the impact that a natural medicine clinical decision tool has on faculty attitudes, practice experiences, and needs with respect to H/NP. Methods All physicians and clinical staff (nurse practitioners, physicians assistants) (n = 532) in departments of Pediatrics, Family and Community Medicine, and Internal Medicine at our medical center were invited to complete 2 electronic surveys. The first survey was completed immediately before access to a H/NP clinical-decision tool was obtained; the second survey was completed the following year. Results Responses were obtained from 89 of 532 practitioners (16.7%) on the first survey and 87 of 535 (16.3%) clinicians on the second survey. Attitudes towards H/NP varied with gender, age, time in practice, and training. At baseline, before having an evidence-based resource available, nearly half the respondents indicated that they rarely or never ask about H/NP when taking a patient medication history. The majority of these respondents (81%) indicated that they would like to learn more about H/NP, but 72% admitted difficulty finding evidence-based information. After implementing the H/NP tool, 63% of database-user respondents indicated that they now ask patients about H/NP when taking a drug history. Compared to results from the baseline survey, respondents who used the database indicated that the tool significantly increased their ability to find reliable H/NP information (P < 0.0001), boosted their knowledge of H/NP (p < 0.0001), and increased their confidence in providing accurate H/NP answers to patients and colleagues (P < 0.0001). Conclusions Our results demonstrate healthcare provider knowledge and confidence with H/NP can be improved without costly and

  14. Dynamic metabolism modelling of urban water services--demonstrating effectiveness as a decision-support tool for Oslo, Norway.

    PubMed

    Venkatesh, G; Sægrov, Sveinung; Brattebø, Helge

    2014-09-15

    Urban water services are challenged from many perspectives and different stakeholders demand performance improvements along economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In response, urban water utilities systematically give more attention to criteria such as water safety, climate change adaptation and mitigation, environmental life cycle assessment (LCA), total cost efficiency, and on how to improve their operations within the water-energy-carbon nexus. The authors of this paper collaborated in the development of a 'Dynamic Metabolism Model' (DMM). The model is developed for generic use in the sustainability assessment of urban water services, and it has been initially tested for the city of Oslo, Norway. The purpose has been to adopt a holistic systemic perspective to the analysis of metabolism and environmental impacts of resource flows in urban water and wastewater systems, in order to offer a tool for the examination of future strategies and intervention options in such systems. This paper describes the model and its application to the city of Oslo for the analysis time period 2013-2040. The external factors impacting decision-making and interventions are introduced along with realistic scenarios developed for the testing, after consultation with officials at the Oslo Water and Wastewater Works (Norway). Possible interventions that the utility intends to set in motion are defined and numerically interpreted for incorporation into the model, and changes in the indicator values over the time period are determined. This paper aims to demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of the DMM, as a decision-support tool for water-wastewater utilities. The scenarios considered and interventions identified do not include all possible scenarios and interventions that can be relevant for water-wastewater utilities. PMID:24880242

  15. A decision support tool for simulating the effects of alternative policies affecting water resources: an application at the European scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fassio, A.; Giupponi, C.; Hiederer, R.; Simota, C.

    2005-03-01

    This paper presents the methodology applied and results obtained from testing the Decision Support System 'mDSS' developed by the MULINO Project (Multi-sectoral, integrated and operational decision support system for the sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale), for assessing alternative measures for the reduction of nitrogen pressure from agriculture on water resources at European level. The European policy background is set by the EU Nitrates Directive (91/676/EEC) and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). The nature of the research is exploratory. It is aimed in particular at testing the usefulness of available official statistics for ex ante evaluations of alternative policy measures at the European scale, and the feasibility of such operations within the newly released mDSS software. Alternative measures for reducing N-pressure and spatial targets were designed and simulated in a GIS environment based on raster maps of 1 km resolution. The geographic extent of the present work is defined as the agricultural land of EU15. Data deriving from official statistics were used to calculate a simplified nitrogen balance, in which the sources of nitrogen are separated into organic (livestock manure) and mineral fertilisers, to distinguish the potential contribution of livestock and crop productions to water pollution at the river basin scale. Spatial indicators and evaluation indices were defined within a conceptual framework. For the study the DPSIR approach (Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact, Response), proposed by the European Environmental Agency, was adopted. The approach was subsequently elaborated by means of the multi-criteria functionality provided by mDSS. The results of this application test at the regional scale highlight the potential of the tool for evaluating the effects of policy measures targeted at different spatial implementation strategies through the application of simple screening models and using available data

  16. iPrevent(®): a tailored, web-based, decision support tool for breast cancer risk assessment and management.

    PubMed

    Collins, Ian M; Bickerstaffe, Adrian; Ranaweera, Thilina; Maddumarachchi, Sanjaya; Keogh, Louise; Emery, Jon; Mann, G Bruce; Butow, Phyllis; Weideman, Prue; Steel, Emma; Trainer, Alison; Bressel, Mathias; Hopper, John L; Cuzick, Jack; Antoniou, Antonis C; Phillips, Kelly-Anne

    2016-02-01

    We aimed to develop a user-centered, web-based, decision support tool for breast cancer risk assessment and personalized risk management. Using a novel model choice algorithm, iPrevent(®) selects one of two validated breast cancer risk estimation models (IBIS or BOADICEA), based on risk factor data entered by the user. Resulting risk estimates are presented in simple language and graphic formats for easy comprehension. iPrevent(®) then presents risk-adapted, evidence-based, guideline-endorsed management options. Development was an iterative process with regular feedback from multidisciplinary experts and consumers. To verify iPrevent(®), risk factor data for 127 cases derived from the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study were entered into iPrevent(®), IBIS (v7.02), and BOADICEA (v3.0). Consistency of the model chosen by iPrevent(®) (i.e., IBIS or BOADICEA) with the programmed iPrevent(®) model choice algorithm was assessed. Estimated breast cancer risks from iPrevent(®) were compared with those attained directly from the chosen risk assessment model (IBIS or BOADICEA). Risk management interventions displayed by iPrevent(®) were assessed for appropriateness. Risk estimation model choice was 100 % consistent with the programmed iPrevent(®) logic. Discrepant 10-year and residual lifetime risk estimates of >1 % were found for 1 and 4 cases, respectively, none was clinically significant (maximal variation 1.4 %). Risk management interventions suggested by iPrevent(®) were 100 % appropriate. iPrevent(®) successfully integrates the IBIS and BOADICEA risk assessment models into a decision support tool that provides evidence-based, risk-adapted risk management advice. This may help to facilitate precision breast cancer prevention discussions between women and their healthcare providers. PMID:26909793

  17. Visualization tools for model/data comparisons and decision making during the Monterey Bay 2006 experiment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pawlowski, L.; Kolber, D.; Godin, M.; Chavez, F. P.

    2006-12-01

    During summer 2006, almost 100 different oceanographic sensors have captured for more than one month the properties of the waters of the Californian Central Coast. Data were assimilated in quasi-real time by three hydrodynamical models to forecast the evolution of the local conditions such as currents, sea water temperature, salinity and to adapt accordingly the sampling strategy of the involved unmanned vehicles (AUV, gliders). Due to the high diversity of data and models (sources, file structures, time and spatial coverage, periodicity of sampling), the collected informations were first converted into a standardized format which allows one to quickly find and extract the relevant variables from the main data server of the experiment. Visualization softwares were developed to provide live maps of the latest locations of instruments, surface plots and vertical transects of currents, temperature and salinity from data and models. These products were mainly used for decision making, for model intercomparison and to evaluate the quality of the data assimilation process for each model. Plots were updated several times a day and automatically posted on an internet collaborative portal. Softwares were adaptive in regards of the availability of simulations and datasets from satellite, aircraft, robotic vehicles, research vessels, moorings, drifters Their modular structures allowed a quick implementation of new instruments during the experiment. Profiles from gliders and AUV served as references for intercomparisons between models for salinity and temperature. As simulations were not synchronized between models, the involved algorithm selected, for all gliders, relevant portions of their tracks to serve as references for model intercomparison. These portions were delimited to prioritize the comparison for each model between observations and nowcasts/hindcasts and also to evaluate the loss of forecasting capabilities with time. We provide here several examples of these

  18. System design, development, and production process modeling: A versatile and powerful acquisition management decision support tool

    SciTech Connect

    Rafuse, H.E.

    1996-12-31

    A series of studies have been completed on the manufacturing operations of light, medium, and heavy tactical vehicle system producers to facilitate critical system acquisition resource decisions by the United States Army Program Executive Officer, Tactical Wheeled Vehicles. The principal programs were the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTV) production programs at Stewart & Stevenson Services, Inc.; the heavy TWV production programs at the Oshkosh Truck Corporation in Oshkosh, Wisconsin; and the light TWV and 2.5 ton remanufacturing production programs at the AM General Corporation in South Bend, Indiana. Each contractor`s production scenarios were analyzed and modeled to accurately quantify the relationship between production rates and unit costs. Specific objectives included identifying (1) Minimum Sustaining Rates to support current and future budgetary requirements and resource programming for potential follow-on procurements, (2) thresholds where production rate changes significantly affect unit costs, and (3) critical production program factors and their impacts to production rate versus unit cost relationships. Two different techniques were utilized initially in conducting the analyses. One technique principally focused on collecting and analyzing applicable historical production program information, where available, to develop a statistical predictive model. A second and much more exhaustive technique focused on a detailed modeling of each contractor`s production processes, flows, and operations. A standard architecture of multiple linked functional modules was used for each process model. Using the standard architecture, the individual modules were tailored to specific contractor operations. Each model contains detailed information on manpower, burden rates, material, material price/quantity relationships, capital, manufacturing support, program management, and all related direct and indirect costs applicable to the production programs.

  19. A decision-support tool for the control of urban noise pollution.

    PubMed

    Suriano, Marcia Thais; de Souza, Léa Cristina Lucas; da Silva, Antonio Nelson Rodrigues

    2015-07-01

    Improving the quality of life is increasingly seen as an important urban planning goal. In order to reach it, various tools are being developed to mitigate the negative impacts of human activities on society. This paper develops a methodology for quantifying the population's exposure to noise, by proposing a classification of urban blocks. Taking into account the vehicular flow and traffic composition of the surroundings of urban blocks, we generated a noise map by applying a computational simulation. The urban blocks were classified according to their noise range and then the population was estimated for each urban block, by a process which was based on the census tract and the constructed area of the blocks. The acoustical classes of urban blocks and the number of inhabitants per block were compared, so that the population exposed to noise levels above 65 dB(A) could be estimated, which is the highest limit established by legislation. As a result, we developed a map of the study area, so that urban blocks that should be priority targets for noise mitigation actions can be quickly identified. PMID:26132260

  20. The SfM-monitored rill experiment, a tool to detect decisive processes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remke, Alexander-André; Wirtz, Stefan; Brings, Christine; Gronz, Oliver; Seeger, Manuel; Ries, Johannes B.

    2016-04-01

    The initiation of rill erosion marks the transition from sheet to linear erosion. With this transition, the relevant processes change and therefore, the observation method needs to be changed too: from observing rainfall induced drop impacts to hydraulic observations. For us, the investigation of the decisive processes in eroding rills resulted in a constantly revised and updated rill erosion experiment, that has been used for several years. Within this experiment the sediment transport behavior of rills is simulated and examined. To make the experiment repeatable and replicable, several key-variables have to be kept constant, i.e. water quantity (1000 L), test duration (approx. 4 min.) and the length of the tested rill section (20 m). For each tested rill, the topographic background is determined i.e. catchment area, aspect, slope, position and height of existing knick-points and three cross-sections. After the initial assessment, the rill is flushed with water (250 L min -1) twice in order to determine the modifications of the rill caused by the flowing water. Within these approx. 4 minutes of "controlled destruction" the velocity of the turbulently flowing water at the beginning of the erosional event and after one and two minutes is determined and the corresponding water depth is recorded using three gauges at selected measuring points. At the end of the tested rill segment, the discharge is constantly monitored. Unfortunately, the results of this rill experiment do not directly show the modifications caused by the artificial waterflow. A way out of this knowledge gap is offered by combining this experimental measurement method with a technique already used in different scientific disciplines in more large-scale applications. Structure-from-Motion technology offers the opportunity to get a different, more detailed view inside the erosion rills. A static multi-camera-array and a dynamically moved digital video-frame camera are now used to obtain three

  1. Subtask 1.18 - A Decision Tool for Watershed-Based Effluent Trading

    SciTech Connect

    Xixi Wang; Bethany A. Kurz; Marc D. Kurz

    2006-11-30

    Handling produced water in an economical and environmentally sound manner is vital to coalbed methane (CBM) development, which is expected to increase up to 60% in the next 10-15 years as the demand for natural gas increases. Current produced water-handling methods (e.g., shallow reinjection and infiltration impoundments) are too costly when implemented on a well-by-well basis. A watershed-based effluent credit trading approach may be a means of managing produced water at reduced cost while meeting or surpassing water quality regulations. This market-based approach allows for improved water quality management by enabling industrial, agricultural, and municipal discharge facilities to meet water quality permit requirements by purchasing pollutant reduction credits from other entities within the same watershed. An evaluation of this concept was conducted for the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Montana and Wyoming by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC). To conduct this assessment, the EERC collected and evaluated existing water quality information and developed the appropriate tools needed to assess the environmental and economic feasibility of specific trading scenarios. The accomplishments of this study include (1) an exploration of the available PRB water quantity and quality data using advanced statistical techniques, (2) development of an integrated water quality model that predicts the impacts of CBM produced water on stream salinity and sodicity, (3) development of an economic model that estimates costs and benefits from implementing potential trading options, (4) evaluation of hypothetical trading scenarios between select watersheds of the PRB, and (5) communication of the project concept and results to key state and federal agencies, industry representatives, and stakeholders of the PRB. The preliminary results of a basinwide assessment indicate that up to $684 million could be saved basinwide without compromising water quality as a result of

  2. Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: quantifying the welfare effects of water shortage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Vat, Marnix; Femke, Schasfoort; Rhee Gigi, Van; Manfred, Wienhoven; Nico, Polman; Joost, Delsman; den Hoek Paul, Van; Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens

    2016-04-01

    It is widely acknowledged that drought management should move from a crisis to a risk-based approach. A risk-based approach to managing water resources requires a sound drought risk analysis, quantifying the probability and impacts of water shortage due to droughts. Impacts of droughts are for example crop yield losses, hydropower production losses, and water shortage for municipal and industrial use. Many studies analyse the balance between supply and demand, but there is little experience in translating this into economic metrics that can be used in a decision-making process on investments to reduce drought risk. We will present a drought risk analysis method for the Netherlands, with a focus on the underlying economic method to quantify the welfare effects of water shortage for different water users. Both the risk-based approach as well as the economic valuation of water shortage for various water users was explored in a study for the Dutch Government. First, an historic analysis of the effects of droughts on revenues and prices in agriculture as well as on shipping and nature was carried out. Second, a drought risk analysis method was developed that combines drought hazard and drought impact analysis in a probabilistic way for various sectors. This consists of a stepwise approach, from water availability through water shortage to economic impact, for a range of drought events with a certain return period. Finally, a local case study was conducted to test the applicability of the drought risk analysis method. Through the study, experience was gained into integrating hydrological and economic analyses, which is a prerequisite for drought risk analysis. Results indicate that the risk analysis method is promising and applicable for various sectors. However, it was also found that quantification of economic impacts from droughts is time-consuming, because location- and sector-specific data is needed, which is not always readily available. Furthermore, for some

  3. Case study of contaminated groundwater discharge: how in situ tools link an evolving conceptual site model with management decisions.

    PubMed

    Duncan, P Bruce; Greenberg, Marc S; Leja, Stan; Williams, Jonathan; Black, Curt; Henry, Richard G; Wilhelm, Leon

    2007-04-01

    In this paper, we show how simple in situ tools provide key insights into groundwater transport and exposure pathways. We illustrate how integration between managers, hydrogeologists, and ecologists, through the use of an evolving conceptual site model, helps direct management decisions. An initial conceptual site model was used to guide a preliminary investigation to determine the extent to which contaminant exposure from discharging groundwater occurs in a waterway. Regulatory agency managers, informed by phased input of data, supported extending the site investigation subtidally to identify the nature and extent of waterway contamination and to provide the basis for developing remedial alternatives. Approaches and tools used in this reconnaissance investigation included monitoring ambient surface water for groundwater signatures, installing minipiezometers within the sediment, and installing diffusion samplers and seepage meters. Despite high concentrations of contaminants in nearby piezometer samples, the diffusion sampler array indicated few locations with contaminant accumulation in the top 20 cm of the sediment. At the location where deployed, seepage meters demonstrated a high degree of connectivity and the potential for mass loading in the waterway. In the collective experience of the authors, this is one of the 1st sites where this comprehensive suite of tools has been applied in a regulatory setting to evaluate the movement of industrial contaminants beneath and into a waterway. This approach was effective because of integration of disciplines, unification of previously separate groundwater and sediment investigations, and collaboration across separate agencies and programs. In large part because of the results, the facility and agency managers agreed, and have begun a comprehensive subtidal investigation, to characterize the distribution of sediment and groundwater contamination and to quantify the groundwater flux to the surface water. PMID:17477296

  4. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    SciTech Connect

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  5. sandflyDST: a dynamic web-based decision support tool for the morphological identification of sandflies present in Anatolia and mainland Europe, and user study.

    PubMed

    Karakülah, G; Karakuş, M; Suner, A; Demir, S; Arserim, S K; Töz, S; Özbel, Y

    2016-09-01

    Species identification of sandflies is mainly performed according to morphological characters using classical written identification keys. This study introduces a new web-based decision support tool (sandflyDST) for guiding the morphological identification of sandfly species present in Anatolia and mainland Europe and classified in the Phlebotomus and Sergentomyia genera (both: Diptera: Psychodidae). The current version of the tool consists of 111 questions and 36 drawings obtained from classical written keys, and 107 photographs for the quick and easy identification of 26 species of the genus Phlebotomus and four species of the genus Sergentomyia. The tool guides users through a decision tree using yes/no questions about the morphological characters of the specimen. The tool was applied by 30 individuals, who then completed study questionnaires. The results of subsequent analyses indicated that the usability (x‾SUSScore=75.4) and users' level of appreciation (86.6%) of the tool were quite high; almost all of the participants considered recommending the tool to others. The tool may also be useful in training new entomologists and maintaining their level of expertise. This is a dynamic tool and can be improved or upgraded according to feedback. The tool is now available online at http://parasitology.ege.edu.tr/sandflyDST/index.php. PMID:27339389

  6. Risk-Based Object Oriented Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenberg, Linda H.; Stapko, Ruth; Gallo, Albert

    2000-01-01

    Software testing is a well-defined phase of the software development life cycle. Functional ("black box") testing and structural ("white box") testing are two methods of test case design commonly used by software developers. A lesser known testing method is risk-based testing, which takes into account the probability of failure of a portion of code as determined by its complexity. For object oriented programs, a methodology is proposed for identification of risk-prone classes. Risk-based testing is a highly effective testing technique that can be used to find and fix the most important problems as quickly as possible.

  7. Making clinical trials more relevant: improving and validating the PRECIS tool for matching trial design decisions to trial purpose

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background If you want to know which of two or more healthcare interventions is most effective, the randomised controlled trial is the design of choice. Randomisation, however, does not itself promote the applicability of the results to situations other than the one in which the trial was done. A tool published in 2009, PRECIS (PRagmatic Explanatory Continuum Indicator Summaries) aimed to help trialists design trials that produced results matched to the aim of the trial, be that supporting clinical decision-making, or increasing knowledge of how an intervention works. Though generally positive, groups evaluating the tool have also found weaknesses, mainly that its inter-rater reliability is not clear, that it needs a scoring system and that some new domains might be needed. The aim of the study is to: Produce an improved and validated version of the PRECIS tool. Use this tool to compare the internal validity of, and effect estimates from, a set of explanatory and pragmatic trials matched by intervention. Methods The study has four phases. Phase 1 involves brainstorming and a two-round Delphi survey of authors who cited PRECIS. In Phase 2, the Delphi results will then be discussed and alternative versions of PRECIS-2 developed and user-tested by experienced trialists. Phase 3 will evaluate the validity and reliability of the most promising PRECIS-2 candidate using a sample of 15 to 20 trials rated by 15 international trialists. We will assess inter-rater reliability, and raters’ subjective global ratings of pragmatism compared to PRECIS-2 to assess convergent and face validity. Phase 4, to determine if pragmatic trials sacrifice internal validity in order to achieve applicability, will compare the internal validity and effect estimates of matched explanatory and pragmatic trials of the same intervention, condition and participants. Effect sizes for the trials will then be compared in a meta-regression. The Cochrane Risk of Bias scores will be compared with the

  8. Design and Testing of an EHR-Integrated, Busulfan Pharmacokinetic Decision Support Tool for the Point-of-Care Clinician

    PubMed Central

    Abdel-Rahman, Susan M.; Breitkreutz, Matthew L.; Bi, Charlie; Matzuka, Brett J.; Dalal, Jignesh; Casey, K. Leigh; Garg, Uttam; Winkle, Sara; Leeder, J. Steven; Breedlove, JeanAnn; Rivera, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Background: Busulfan demonstrates a narrow therapeutic index for which clinicians routinely employ therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). However, operationalizing TDM can be fraught with inefficiency. We developed and tested software encoding a clinical decision support tool (DST) that is embedded into our electronic health record (EHR) and designed to streamline the TDM process for our oncology partners. Methods: Our development strategy was modeled based on the features associated with successful DSTs. An initial Requirements Analysis was performed to characterize tasks, information flow, user needs, and system requirements to enable push/pull from the EHR. Back-end development was coded based on the algorithm used when manually performing busulfan TDM. The code was independently validated in MATLAB using 10,000 simulated patient profiles. A 296-item heuristic checklist was used to guide design of the front-end user interface. Content experts and end-users (n = 28) were recruited to participate in traditional usability testing under an IRB approved protocol. Results: Decision support software was developed to systematically walk the point-of-care clinician through the TDM process. The system is accessed through the EHR which transparently imports all of the requisite patient data. Data are visually inspected and then curve fit using a model-dependent approach. Quantitative goodness-of-fit are converted to single tachometer where “green” alerts the user that the model is strong, “yellow” signals caution and “red” indicates that there may be a problem with the fitting. Override features are embedded to permit application of a model-independent approach where appropriate. Simulations are performed to target a desired exposure or dose as entered by the clinician and the DST pushes the user approved recommendation back into the EHR. Usability testers were highly satisfied with our DST and quickly became proficient with the software. Conclusions: With early

  9. Risk-based and deterministic regulation

    SciTech Connect

    Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

    1995-07-01

    Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose.

  10. Update on EPA's ToxCast program: providing high throughput decision support tools for chemical risk management.

    PubMed

    Kavlock, Robert; Chandler, Kelly; Houck, Keith; Hunter, Sid; Judson, Richard; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Knudsen, Thomas; Martin, Matt; Padilla, Stephanie; Reif, David; Richard, Ann; Rotroff, Daniel; Sipes, Nisha; Dix, David

    2012-07-16

    The field of toxicology is on the cusp of a major transformation in how the safety and hazard of chemicals are evaluated for potential effects on human health and the environment. Brought on by the recognition of the limitations of the current paradigm in terms of cost, time, and throughput, combined with the ever increasing power of modern biological tools to probe mechanisms of chemical-biological interactions at finer and finer resolutions, 21st century toxicology is rapidly taking shape. A key element of the new approach is a focus on the molecular and cellular pathways that are the targets of chemical interactions. By understanding toxicity in this manner, we begin to learn how chemicals cause toxicity, as opposed to merely what diseases or health effects they might cause. This deeper understanding leads to increasing confidence in identifying which populations might be at risk, significant susceptibility factors, and key influences on the shape of the dose-response curve. The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initiated the ToxCast, or "toxicity forecaster", program 5 years ago to gain understanding of the strengths and limitations of the new approach by starting to test relatively large numbers (hundreds) of chemicals against an equally large number of biological assays. Using computational approaches, the EPA is building decision support tools based on ToxCast in vitro screening results to help prioritize chemicals for further investigation, as well as developing predictive models for a number of health outcomes. This perspective provides a summary of the initial, proof of concept, Phase I of ToxCast that has laid the groundwork for the next phases and future directions of the program. PMID:22519603

  11. Climate Risk Management and Decision Support Tools for the Agriculture Sector in Lao PDR, Bangladesh, and Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allis, E. C.; Greene, A. M.; Cousin, R.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a comprehensive project for developing climate information and decision support / climate risk management tools in Lao PDR, Bangladesh and Indonesia. Mechanisms are developed for bringing the benefits of these tools to both policy makers and poor rural farmers, with the goal of enabling better management, at the farm level, of the risks associated with climate variability and change. The project comprises several interwoven threads, differentially applied in the different study regions. These include data management and quality control, development of seasonal forecast capabilities, use of dynamic cropping calendars and climate advisories, the development of longer-term climate information for both past and future and a weather index insurance component. Stakeholder engagement and capacity building served as reinforcing and complementary elements to all components. In this talk we will provide a project overview, show how the various components fit together and describe some lessons learned in this attempt to promote the uptake of actionable climate information from farmer to policy level. The applied research project was led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University with funding from the International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and in close collaboration with our regional partners at the Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia Pacific (at Bogor Agricultural University in Indonesia), Indonesia's National Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Lao PDR's National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), Laotian Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), WorldFish Center, Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD), and CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

  12. Developing a decision support tool for landscape planning and management to minimize land and water degradation in Volta basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vlek, Lulseged Tamene, Quang Bao Le, Jens Liebe, Paul L. G.

    2009-04-01

    Although many soil/water-landscape studies have been published in the last two decades, progress in developing operational tools for supporting landscape planning to minimize land and water degradation in developing regions is still modest. Some of the existing tools are very data demanding and/or too complicated to be useful to data scarce regions. A research group at the Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn has developed a LAndscape Management and Planning Tool (LAMPT) to facilitate land management decision making and landscape planning by optimization. Firstly, we used the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and a Distributed Sediment Delivery Model (DSDM) in a GIS environment to estimate the spatial distribution of areas experiencing different levels of soil loss in the White Volta basin. The RUSLE is employed to map the spatial patterns of major sediment source areas based on data calibrated for the study region. As RUSLE only estimates the potential gross erosion of each grid cell, a DSDM is used to estimate the sediment delivery efficiency of each cell using flow distance and velocity along the flow path. The combined models allow a classification of sub-watersheds experiencing different levels of soil loss using a soil tolerance threshold suitable for the study areas (Burkina Faso and Ghana). The result shows that the majority of areas around north-eastern and eastern parts of the White Volta basin (mainly south-eastern Burkina Faso and upper east region of Ghana) are associated with high levels of sediment yield (over 15 t ha-1 yr-1). The main reason could be high population pressure, poor surface cover and relatively high slope of some of the areas in Ghana. On the other hand, the north-western and southern parts of the basin experience low levels of sediment yield (less than 5 t ha-1 yr-1) mainly due to their flat terrain and good surface cover that encourage sediment deposition rather than erosion. We revealed that a GIS

  13. DECISION SUPPORT FOR REVITALIZATION PRACTITIONERS: SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND REVITALIZATION TOOLS-ELECTRONIC (SMARTE-TRAINING FOR OH EPA - APRIL 13, 2006

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is a web-based decision support tool being developed by the Office of Research and Development (ORD) in partnership with the Office of Brownfields Cleanup and ...

  14. Below the Surface: New Tools--And Savvy Librarians--Are Turning the ILS into a Gold Mine for Making More Informed Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cummins, Caroline

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses the benefits offered by integrated library systems (ILS) for making more informed decisions. Library software vendors, realizing ILS products can reveal business intelligence, have begun to offer tools like Director's Station to help library managers get more out of their data, and librarians are taking…

  15. Healthcare decision-tools a growing Web trend: three-pronged public relations campaign heightens presence, recognition for online healthcare information provider.

    PubMed

    2006-01-01

    Schwartz Communications, LLC, executes a successful PR campaign to position Subimo, a provider of online healthcare decision tools, as a leader in the industry that touts names such as WebMD.com and HealthGrades.com. Through a three-pronged media relations strategy, Schwartz and Subimo together branded the company as an industry thought-leader. PMID:16509388

  16. Class Evolution Tree: A Graphical Tool to Support Decisions on the Number of Classes in Exploratory Categorical Latent Variable Modeling for Rehabilitation Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kriston, Levente; Melchior, Hanne; Hergert, Anika; Bergelt, Corinna; Watzke, Birgit; Schulz, Holger; von Wolff, Alessa

    2011-01-01

    The aim of our study was to develop a graphical tool that can be used in addition to standard statistical criteria to support decisions on the number of classes in explorative categorical latent variable modeling for rehabilitation research. Data from two rehabilitation research projects were used. In the first study, a latent profile analysis was…

  17. The process of development of a prioritization tool for a clinical decision support build within a computerized provider order entry system: Experiences from St Luke's Health System.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Matthew; Miller, Suzanne; DeJong, Doug; House, John A; Dirks, Carl; Beasley, Brent

    2016-09-01

    To establish a process for the development of a prioritization tool for a clinical decision support build within a computerized provider order entry system and concurrently to prioritize alerts for Saint Luke's Health System. The process of prioritizing clinical decision support alerts included (a) consensus sessions to establish a prioritization process and identify clinical decision support alerts through a modified Delphi process and (b) a clinical decision support survey to validate the results. All members of our health system's physician quality organization, Saint Luke's Care as well as clinicians, administrators, and pharmacy staff throughout Saint Luke's Health System, were invited to participate in this confidential survey. The consensus sessions yielded a prioritization process through alert contextualization and associated Likert-type scales. Utilizing this process, the clinical decision support survey polled the opinions of 850 clinicians with a 64.7 percent response rate. Three of the top rated alerts were approved for the pre-implementation build at Saint Luke's Health System: Acute Myocardial Infarction Core Measure Sets, Deep Vein Thrombosis Prophylaxis within 4 h, and Criteria for Sepsis. This study establishes a process for developing a prioritization tool for a clinical decision support build within a computerized provider order entry system that may be applicable to similar institutions. PMID:25814483

  18. Multi-criteria decision analysis tools for prioritising emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases associated with climate change in Canada.

    PubMed

    Cox, Ruth; Sanchez, Javier; Revie, Crawford W

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software 'M-MACBETH'. The tools were trialed on nine 'test' pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued. PMID

  19. Barriers and Facilitators to Patient-Provider Communication When Discussing Breast Cancer Risk to Aid in the Development of Decision Support Tools.

    PubMed

    Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham S; Aguirre, Alejandra N; Smalletz, Cindy; Dimond, Jill; Finkelstein, Joseph; Infante, Katherine; Trivedi, Meghna; David, Raven; Vargas, Jennifer; Crew, Katherine D; Kukafka, Rita

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify barriers and facilitators to patient-provider communication when discussing breast cancer risk to aid in the development of decision support tools. Four patient focus groups (N=34) and eight provider focus groups (N=10) took place in Northern Manhattan. A qualitative analysis was conducted using Atlas.ti software. The coding yielded 62.3%-94.5% agreement. The results showed that 1) barriers are time constraints, lack of knowledge, low health literacy, and language barriers, and 2) facilitators are information needs, desire for personalization, and autonomy when communicating risk in patient-provider encounters. These results will inform the development of a patient-centered decision aid (RealRisks) and a provider-facing breast cancer risk navigation (BNAV) tool, which are designed to facilitate patient-provider risk communication and shared decision-making about breast cancer prevention strategies, such as chemoprevention. PMID:26958276

  20. Barriers and Facilitators to Patient-Provider Communication When Discussing Breast Cancer Risk to Aid in the Development of Decision Support Tools

    PubMed Central

    Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham S.; Aguirre, Alejandra N.; Smalletz, Cindy; Dimond, Jill; Finkelstein, Joseph; Infante, Katherine; Trivedi, Meghna; David, Raven; Vargas, Jennifer; Crew, Katherine D.; Kukafka, Rita

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify barriers and facilitators to patient-provider communication when discussing breast cancer risk to aid in the development of decision support tools. Four patient focus groups (N=34) and eight provider focus groups (N=10) took place in Northern Manhattan. A qualitative analysis was conducted using Atlas.ti software. The coding yielded 62.3%–94.5% agreement. The results showed that 1) barriers are time constraints, lack of knowledge, low health literacy, and language barriers, and 2) facilitators are information needs, desire for personalization, and autonomy when communicating risk in patient-provider encounters. These results will inform the development of a patient-centered decision aid (RealRisks) and a provider-facing breast cancer risk navigation (BNAV) tool, which are designed to facilitate patient-provider risk communication and shared decision-making about breast cancer prevention strategies, such as chemoprevention. PMID:26958276

  1. Decision Support Tool Evaluation Report for General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment(GNOME) Version 2.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie; Zanoni, Vicki; Blonski, Slawomir; D'Sa, Eurico; Estep, Lee; Holland, Donald; Moore, Roxzana F.; Pagnutti, Mary; Terrie, Gregory

    2004-01-01

    NASA's Earth Science Applications Directorate evaluated the potential of NASA remote sensing data and modeling products to enhance the General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME) decision support tool. NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) Response Division is interested in enhancing GNOME with near-realtime (NRT) NASA remote sensing products on oceanic winds and ocean circulation. The NASA SeaWinds sea surface wind and Jason-1 sea surface height NRT products have potential, as do sea surface temperature and reflectance products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and sea surface reflectance products from Landsat and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer. HAZMAT is also interested in the Advanced Circulation model and the Ocean General Circulation Model. Certain issues must be considered, including lack of data continuity, marginal data redundancy, and data formatting problems. Spatial resolution is an issue for near-shore GNOME applications. Additional work will be needed to incorporate NASA inputs into GNOME, including verification and validation of data products, algorithms, models, and NRT data.

  2. Using a configurable EMR and decision support tools to promote process integration for routine HIV screening in the emergency department.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Robert; Moore, Eric

    2016-03-01

    Given the clinical and public health benefits of routine Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) testing in the emergency department (ED) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations, Maricopa Medical Center, as part of Maricopa Integrated Health System, started Test, Educate, Support, and Treat Arizona (TESTAZ) and became the first and, to-date, only hospital in Arizona to implement routine, non-targeted, opt-out, rapid HIV screening in the ED. The authors describe the implementation of a universal, routine, opt-out HIV screening program in the adult ED of an urban safety-net hospital serving under-served populations, including the uninsured and under-insured. Through a controlled and collaborative process, the authors integrated custom documentation elements specific to HIV screening into the triage/intake process, implemented and utilized clinical decision support tools to guide clinicians in each step of the process, and used electronic data collection and reporting to drive new screening protocols that led to a significant increase in overall HIV testing rates. PMID:26338216

  3. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70... CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.70 Risk-based capital level. The risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk....

  4. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70... CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.70 Risk-based capital level. The risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk....

  5. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based...

  6. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based...

  7. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70... CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.70 Risk-based capital level. The risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk....

  8. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70... CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.70 Risk-based capital level. The risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk....

  9. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based...

  10. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based...

  11. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70... CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.70 Risk-based capital level. The risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk....

  12. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based...

  13. A decision support tool to determine cost-to-benefit of a family-centered in-home program for at-risk adolescents.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Fernando A; Araz, Ozgur M; Thompson, Ronald W; Ringle, Jay L; Mason, W Alex; Stimpson, Jim P

    2016-06-01

    Family-centered program research has demonstrated its effectiveness in improving adolescent outcomes. However, given current fiscal constraints faced by governmental agencies, a recent report from the Institute of Medicine and National Research Council highlighted the need for cost-benefit analyses to inform decision making by policymakers. Furthermore, performance management tools such as balanced scorecards and dashboards do not generally include cost-benefit analyses. In this paper, we describe the development of an Excel-based decision support tool that can be used to evaluate a selected family-based program for at-risk children and adolescents relative to a comparison program or the status quo. This tool incorporates the use of an efficient, user-friendly interface with results provided in concise tabular and graphical formats that may be interpreted without need for substantial training in economic evaluation. To illustrate, we present an application of this tool to evaluate use of Boys Town's In-Home Family Services (IHFS) relative to detention and out-of-home placement in New York City. Use of the decision support tool can help mitigate the need for programs to contract experts in economic evaluation, especially when there are financial or time constraints. PMID:27031834

  14. Communication Tools for End-of-Life Decision-Making in Ambulatory Care Settings: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Chung, Han-Oh; Hanvey, Louise; Mbuagbaw, Lawrence; You, John J.

    2016-01-01

    Background Patients with serious illness, and their families, state that better communication and decision-making with healthcare providers is a high priority to improve the quality of end-of-life care. Numerous communication tools to assist patients, family members, and clinicians in end-of-life decision-making have been published, but their effectiveness remains unclear. Objectives To determine, amongst adults in ambulatory care settings, the effect of structured communication tools for end-of-life decision-making on completion of advance care planning. Methods We searched for relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or non-randomized intervention studies in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, ERIC, and the Cochrane Database of Randomized Controlled Trials from database inception until July 2014. Two reviewers independently screened articles for eligibility, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) was used to evaluate the quality of evidence for each of the primary and secondary outcomes. Results Sixty-seven studies, including 46 RCTs, were found. The majority evaluated communication tools in older patients (age >50) with no specific medical condition, but many specifically evaluated populations with cancer, lung, heart, neurologic, or renal disease. Most studies compared the use of communication tools against usual care, but several compared the tools to less-intensive advance care planning tools. The use of structured communication tools increased: the frequency of advance care planning discussions/discussions about advance directives (RR 2.31, 95% CI 1.25–4.26, p = 0.007, low quality evidence) and the completion of advance directives (ADs) (RR 1.92, 95% CI 1.43–2.59, p<0.001, low quality evidence); concordance between AD preferences and subsequent medical orders for use or non-use of life supporting treatment (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.01–1.39, p = 0.028, very low quality evidence, 1

  15. Risk-Based Ranking Experiences for Cold War Legacy Facilities in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Droppo, James G.

    2003-05-01

    Over the past two decades, a number of government agencies in the United States have faced increasing public scrutiny for their efforts to address the wide range of potential environmental issues related to Cold War legacies. Risk-based ranking was selected as a means of defining the relative importance of issues. Ambitious facility-wide risk-based ranking applications were undertaken. However, although facility-wide risk-based ranking efforts can build invaluable understanding of the potential issues related to Cold War legacies, conducting such efforts is difficult because of the potentially enormous scope and the potentially strong institutional barriers. The U.S. experience is that such efforts are worth undertaking to start building a knowledge base and infrastructure that are based on a thorough understanding of risk. In both the East and the West, the legacy of the Cold War includes a wide range of potential environmental issues associated with large industrial complexes of weapon production facilities. The responsible agencies or ministries are required to make decisions that could benefit greatly from information on the relative importance of these potential issues. Facility-wide risk-based ranking of potential health and environmental issues is one means to help these decision makers. The initial U.S. risk-based ranking applications described in this chapter were “ground-breaking” in that they defined new methodologies and approaches to meet the challenges. Many of these approaches fit the designation of a population-centred risk assessment. These U.S. activities parallel efforts that are just beginning for similar facilities in the countries of the former Soviet Union. As described below, conducting a facility-wide risk-based ranking has special challenges and potential pitfalls. Little guidance exists to conduct major risk-based rankings. For those considering undertaking such efforts, the material contained in this chapter should be useful

  16. Integrated Simulation Development and Decision Support Tool-Set for Utility Market and Distributed Solar Power Generation Electricore, Inc.

    SciTech Connect

    Daye, Tony

    2013-09-30

    This project will enable utilities to develop long-term strategic plans that integrate high levels of renewable energy generation, and to better plan power system operations under high renewable penetration. The program developed forecast data streams for decision support and effective integration of centralized and distributed solar power generation in utility operations. This toolset focused on real time simulation of distributed power generation within utility grids with the emphasis on potential applications in day ahead (market) and real time (reliability) utility operations. The project team developed and demonstrated methodologies for quantifying the impact of distributed solar generation on core utility operations, identified protocols for internal data communication requirements, and worked with utility personnel to adapt the new distributed generation (DG) forecasts seamlessly within existing Load and Generation procedures through a sophisticated DMS. This project supported the objectives of the SunShot Initiative and SUNRISE by enabling core utility operations to enhance their simulation capability to analyze and prepare for the impacts of high penetrations of solar on the power grid. The impact of high penetration solar PV on utility operations is not only limited to control centers, but across many core operations. Benefits of an enhanced DMS using state-of-the-art solar forecast data were demonstrated within this project and have had an immediate direct operational cost savings for Energy Marketing for Day Ahead generation commitments, Real Time Operations, Load Forecasting (at an aggregate system level for Day Ahead), Demand Response, Long term Planning (asset management), Distribution Operations, and core ancillary services as required for balancing and reliability. This provided power system operators with the necessary tools and processes to operate the grid in a reliable manner under high renewable penetration.

  17. Opportunities and Challenges in Using Hydrologic Information and Decision Support Tools to Improve Livelihoods in Burkina Faso, West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirshen, P.; Jost, C.; Roncoli, M. C.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2006-12-01

    Burkina Faso is part of the Sahel-Sudan climatic zone south of the Sahara Desert. The rainfall of the region is characterized by extreme seasonal and annual temporal and spatial variability. Soils are generally of low fertility. The major livelihood activity in Burkina Faso, one of the lowest ranked countries in the world in the Human Development Index where 80 percent of the population rely on subsistence farming, is rainfed cultivation of cereal crops. Cotton is the dominant export crop and is mostly grown in the southwest. Livestock management is an important complement to farm activities, especially in the Sahelian zone. There are several major rivers flowing through the region and many ephemeral streams. Surface water resources are becoming more important to Burkina Faso as it tries to improve food security and water supplies, and increase energy production. One of the major opportunities to improve livelihoods in the region has been improvements in seasonal rainfall forecasting based upon global sea surface temperatures. In the past decade, the generation and use of forecasts in Burkina Faso has evolved from the nation just receiving forecasts almost as an after thought from USA and European meteorological services to the Burkina Faso Meteorological Services generating their own forecasts with support from these services. There is now also more focused international research on improving the forecasts for this region. The use of stochastic decision support tools (DST) that combine the seasonal forecasts with hydrologic and crop models, land conditions, and information on farmer and policy maker goals could improve both rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems. Their implementation requires overcoming many technical and socio-economic challenges. Examples include forecasting the start and end of rains, dissemination and explanation of forecasts, streamflow forecasting in data scarce regions, possible different incentives for subsistence and cash crop farmers

  18. Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

    2015-12-01

    While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.

  19. Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina, José-Luis; Pulido-Velázquez, David; García-Aróstegui, José Luis; Pulido-Velázquez, Manuel

    2013-02-01

    SummaryBayesian Networks (BNs) are powerful tools for assessing and predicting consequences of water management scenarios and uncertain drivers like climate change, integrating available scientific knowledge with the interests of the multiple stakeholders. However, among their major limitations, the non-transient treatment of the cause-effect relationship stands out. A Decision Support System (DSS) based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is proposed here aimed to palliate that limitation through time slicing technique. The DSS comprises several classes (Object-Oriented BN networks), especially designed for future 5 years length time steps (time slices), covering a total control period of 30 years (2070-2100). The DSS has been developed for assessing impacts generated by different Climate Change (CC) scenarios (generated from several Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B and A2) in an aquifer system (Serral-Salinas) affected by intensive groundwater use over the last 30 years. A calibrated continuous water balance model was used to generate hydrological CC scenarios, and then a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) was employed in order to analyze the aquifer behavior under CC conditions. Results obtained from both models were used as input for the DSS, considering rainfall, aquifer recharge, variation of piezometric levels and temporal evolution of aquifer storage as the main hydrological components of the aquifer system. Results show the evolution of the aquifer storage for each future time step under different climate change conditions and under controlled water management interventions. This type of applications would allow establishing potential adaptation strategies for aquifer systems as the CC comes into effect.

  20. Applying decision-making tools to national e-waste recycling policy: an example of Analytic Hierarchy Process.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chun-Hsu; Wen, Lihchyi; Tsai, Yue-Mi

    2010-05-01

    As policy making is in essence a process of discussion, decision-making tools have in many cases been proposed to resolve the differences of opinion among the different parties. In our project that sought to promote a country's performance in recycling, we used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate the possibilities and determine the priority of the addition of new mandatory recycled waste, also referred to as Due Recycled Wastes, from candidate waste appliances. The evaluation process started with the collection of data based on telephone interviews and field investigations to understand the behavior of consumers as well as their overall opinions regarding the disposal of certain waste appliances. With the data serving as background information, the research team then implemented the Analytic Hierarchy Process using the information that formed an incomplete hierarchy structure in order to determine the priority for recycling. Since the number of objects to be evaluated exceeded the number that the AHP researchers had suggested, we reclassified the objects into four groups and added one more level of pair-wise comparisons, which substantially reduced the inconsistency in the judgment of the AHP participants. The project was found to serve as a flexible and achievable application of AHP to the environmental policy-making process. In addition, based on the project's outcomes derived from the project as a whole, the research team drew conclusions regarding the government's need to take back 15 of the items evaluated, and suggested instruments that could be used or recycling regulations that could be changed in the future. Further analysis on the top three items recommended by the results of the evaluation for recycling, namely, Compact Disks, Cellular Phones and Computer Keyboards, was then conducted to clarify their concrete feasibility. After the trial period for recycling ordered by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration, only Computer

  1. Greenhouse Gases Life Cycle Assessment (GHGLCA) as a decision support tool for municipal solid waste management in Iran

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background One of the most problems in developing countries is the integrated waste management and the effects on Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used in this paper as a decision supporting tool in planning Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) managements. Methods In this paper the EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM) that provide GHG emission factors for waste stream components that are based on life Cycle Inventory (LCI) framework were used and The MSW management methods comprised in seven scenarios. Results The amount of GHG which was generated from Iran’s waste sector estimated about 17836079 Metric Tons of Carbon dioxide Equivalents (MT CO2e) in this study. The lowest amount of GHG was generated by LFG capture system with energy recovery (557635 MT CO2e), while Incineration of materials being sent to landfill (1756823 MT CO2e), Landfill Gas (LFG) capture system with flaring (2929150 MT CO2e) and Improved source reduction and recycling (4780278 MT CO2e) emitted fewer GHG than the other scenarios. Lowest levels of gross energy consumption occur in source reduction with recycling and composting (-89356240 Mega British Thermal Unit, M BTU), recycling and composting (-86772060 M BTU) as well as Improved source reduction with recycling and composting (-54794888 M BTU). Conclusions It appears that recycling and composting each offer significant GHG emissions and energy consumption reductions (scenarios 4, 5 and 6). Upon of the GHG emission and energy consumption results concluded that improved source reduction and recycling scenario has been the Balanced and appropriate technology for handling the solid waste streams in municipalities. PMID:24910776

  2. Ecosystem Services Decision Support: A Living Database of Existing Tools, Approaches and Techniques for Supporting Decisions Related to Ecosystem Services (Poster)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Planners and decision makers are challenged to consider not only direct market costs, but also ecological externalities. There is an increasing emphasis on ecosystem services in the context of human well-being, and therefore the valuation and accounting of ecosystem services is b...

  3. Promoting Awareness of Key Resources for Evidence-Informed Decision-making in Public Health: An Evaluation of a Webinar Series about Knowledge Translation Methods and Tools.

    PubMed

    Yost, Jennifer; Mackintosh, Jeannie; Read, Kristin; Dobbins, Maureen

    2016-01-01

    The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools (NCCMT) has developed several resources to support evidence-informed decision-making - the process of distilling and disseminating best available evidence from research, context, and experience - and knowledge translation, applying best evidence in practice. One such resource, the Registry of Methods and Tools, is a free online database of 195 methods and tools to support knowledge translation. Building on the identification of webinars as a strategy to improve the dissemination of information, NCCMT launched the Spotlight on Knowledge Translation Methods and Tools webinar series in 2012 to promote awareness and use of the Registry. To inform continued implementation of this webinar series, NCCMT conducted an evaluation of the series' potential to improve awareness and use of the methods/tools within the Registry, as well as identify areas for improvement and "what worked." For this evaluation, the following data were analyzed: electronic follow-up surveys administered immediately following each webinar; an additional electronic survey administered 6 months after two webinars; and Google Analytics for each webinar. As of November 2015, there have been 22 webinars conducted, reaching 2048 people in multiple sectors across Canada and around the world. Evaluation results indicate that the webinars increase awareness about the Registry and stimulate use of the methods/tools. Although webinar attendees were significantly less likely to have used the methods/tools 6 months after webinars, this may be attributed to the lack of an identified opportunity in their work to use the method/tool. Despite technological challenges and requests for further examples of how the methods/tools have been used, there is overwhelming positive feedback that the format, presenters, content, and interaction across webinars "worked." This evaluation supports that webinars are a valuable strategy for increasing awareness and

  4. Promoting Awareness of Key Resources for Evidence-Informed Decision-making in Public Health: An Evaluation of a Webinar Series about Knowledge Translation Methods and Tools

    PubMed Central

    Yost, Jennifer; Mackintosh, Jeannie; Read, Kristin; Dobbins, Maureen

    2016-01-01

    The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools (NCCMT) has developed several resources to support evidence-informed decision-making – the process of distilling and disseminating best available evidence from research, context, and experience – and knowledge translation, applying best evidence in practice. One such resource, the Registry of Methods and Tools, is a free online database of 195 methods and tools to support knowledge translation. Building on the identification of webinars as a strategy to improve the dissemination of information, NCCMT launched the Spotlight on Knowledge Translation Methods and Tools webinar series in 2012 to promote awareness and use of the Registry. To inform continued implementation of this webinar series, NCCMT conducted an evaluation of the series’ potential to improve awareness and use of the methods/tools within the Registry, as well as identify areas for improvement and “what worked.” For this evaluation, the following data were analyzed: electronic follow-up surveys administered immediately following each webinar; an additional electronic survey administered 6 months after two webinars; and Google Analytics for each webinar. As of November 2015, there have been 22 webinars conducted, reaching 2048 people in multiple sectors across Canada and around the world. Evaluation results indicate that the webinars increase awareness about the Registry and stimulate use of the methods/tools. Although webinar attendees were significantly less likely to have used the methods/tools 6 months after webinars, this may be attributed to the lack of an identified opportunity in their work to use the method/tool. Despite technological challenges and requests for further examples of how the methods/tools have been used, there is overwhelming positive feedback that the format, presenters, content, and interaction across webinars “worked.” This evaluation supports that webinars are a valuable strategy for increasing awareness

  5. Extending the benefits of NASA Earth-Sun System Science Data Products and Modeled Forecasts to Decision Support Tools: Successes and Future Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, E.; Birk, R. J.

    2005-12-01

    In Earth-Sun system science, NASA affiliated researchers view the Earth as a whole system and take a contextual approach to scientific inquiry. Through observations-based science data products and computational models of the Earth system, NASA and its partners are establishing predictive capabilities for future projections of natural and human perturbations on the planet. Researchers worldwide assimilate science data products resulting from NASA research into computer models to generate predictions that can be used in decision support tools for policy makers and resource managers. Plans and actions are underway to transition research results to operational tools that can result in societal and economic benefits based on research results, including advancements in data-handling systems employing international standards for interoperability to enable effective distribution of our Earth system science data and products. Examples of the successful transition of research results that contribute to operational decision support tools include Wildfire Management with the U.S Forest Service, Air-Quality Forecasting with the U.S Environmental Protection Agency, and the Forecast of Volcanic Ash and Icing Hazards to Aviation with the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. These examples will be discussed in terms of bridging the gaps between the science data sets, the computer modelers, and decision makers. NASA's Applied Sciences Program is taking a systems engineering approach to facilitate rapid prototyping of potential uses of research capabilities into decision support tools and to contribute to future operational observation and modeling systems. Input on engineering and scientific tools and techniques associated with improved data acquisition, product generation, archiving and accessibility, and application are assimilated from the community-of-practice that utilizes observations and predictions resulting from NASA.

  6. A risk-based approach to cost-benefit analysis of software safety activities

    SciTech Connect

    Fortier, S.C. ); Michael, J.B. )

    1993-01-01

    Assumptions about the economics of making a system safe are usually not explicitly stated in industrial and software models of safety-critical systems. These assumptions span a wide spectrum of economic tradeoffs with respect to resources expended to make a system safe. The missing component in these models that is necessary for capturing the effect of economic tradeoffs is risk. A qualitative risk-based software safety model is proposed that combines features of industrial and software systems safety models. The risk-based model provides decision makers with a basis for performing cost-benefit analyses of software safety-related activities.

  7. A risk-based approach to cost-benefit analysis of software safety activities

    SciTech Connect

    Fortier, S.C.; Michael, J.B.

    1993-05-01

    Assumptions about the economics of making a system safe are usually not explicitly stated in industrial and software models of safety-critical systems. These assumptions span a wide spectrum of economic tradeoffs with respect to resources expended to make a system safe. The missing component in these models that is necessary for capturing the effect of economic tradeoffs is risk. A qualitative risk-based software safety model is proposed that combines features of industrial and software systems safety models. The risk-based model provides decision makers with a basis for performing cost-benefit analyses of software safety-related activities.

  8. Enhanced Chemical Incident Response Plan (ECIRP). Appendix F, remediation analysis with Decision Support Tools (DSTs) for wide-area chemical hazards.

    SciTech Connect

    Hassig, Nancy L.; Pulsipher, Brent A.; Foltz, Greg W.; Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2011-07-01

    The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) commissioned an assessment of the Consequence Management (CM) plans in place on military bases for response to a chemical attack. The effectiveness of the CM plans for recovering from chemical incidents was modeled using a multiple Decision Support Tools (DSTs). First, a scenario was developed based on an aerial dispersion of a chemical agent over a wide-area of land. The extent of contamination was modeled with the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) tool. Subsequently, the Analyzer for Wide Area Restoration Effectiveness (AWARE) tool was used to estimate the cost and time demands for remediation based on input of contamination maps, sampling and decontamination resources, strategies, rates and costs. The sampling strategies incorporated in the calculation were designed using the Visual Sample Plan (VSP) tool. Based on a gaps assessment and the DST remediation analysis, an Enhanced Chemical Incident Response Plan (ECIRP) was developed.

  9. Fews-Risk: A step towards risk-based flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, Daniel; Eilander, Dirk; de Leeuw, Annemargreet; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Weerts, Albrecht; de Bruijn, Karin; Beckers, Joost; Boelee, Leonore; Brown, Emma; Hazlewood, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Operational flood prediction and the assessment of flood risk are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within operational flood management. However, the information provided for decision support is restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in a model-based flood forecasting system. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. The idea of FEWS-Risk is the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. Thus, additional information is provided to the decision makers, such as: • Location, timing and probability of failure of defined sections of the flood defence line; • Flood spreading, extent and hydraulic values in the hinterland caused by an overflow or a breach flow • Impacts and consequences in case of flooding in the protected areas, such as injuries or casualties and/or damages to critical infrastructure or economy. In contrast with purely hydraulic-based operational information, these additional data focus upon decision support for answering crucial questions within an operational flood forecasting framework, such as: • Where should I reinforce my flood defence system? • What type of action can I take to mend a weak spot in my flood defences? • What are the consequences of a breach? • Which areas should I evacuate first? This presentation outlines the additional required workflows towards risk-based flood

  10. Diagnosis of Cattle Diseases Endemic to Sub-Saharan Africa: Evaluating a Low Cost Decision Support Tool in Use by Veterinary Personnel

    PubMed Central

    Eisler, Mark C.; Magona, Joseph W.; Revie, Crawford W.

    2012-01-01

    Background Diagnosis is key to control and prevention of livestock diseases. In areas of sub-Saharan Africa where private practitioners rarely replace Government veterinary services reduced in effectiveness by structural adjustment programmes, those who remain lack resources for diagnosis and might benefit from decision support. Methodology/Principal Findings We evaluated whether a low-cost diagnostic decision support tool would lead to changes in clinical diagnostic practice by fifteen veterinary and animal health officers undertaking primary animal healthcare in Uganda. The eight diseases covered by the tool included 98% of all bovine diagnoses made before or after its introduction. It may therefore inform proportional morbidity in the area; breed, age and geographic location effects were consistent with current epidemiological understanding. Trypanosomosis, theileriosis, anaplasmosis, and parasitic gastroenteritis were the most common conditions among 713 bovine clinical cases diagnosed prior to introduction of the tool. Thereafter, in 747 bovine clinical cases estimated proportional morbidity of fasciolosis doubled, while theileriosis and parasitic gastroenteritis were diagnosed less commonly and the average number of clinical signs increased from 3.5 to 4.9 per case, with 28% of cases reporting six or more signs compared to 3% beforehand. Anaemia/pallor, weakness and staring coat contributed most to this increase, approximately doubling in number and were recorded in over half of all cases. Finally, although lack of a gold standard hindered objective assessment of whether the tool improved the reliability of diagnosis, informative concordance and misclassification matrices yielded useful insights into its role in the diagnostic process. Conclusions/Significance The diagnostic decision support tool covered the majority of diagnoses made before or after its introduction, leading to a significant increase in the number of clinical signs recorded, suggesting this

  11. Risk-based targeting: A new approach in environmental protection

    SciTech Connect

    Fox, C.A.

    1995-12-31

    Risk-based targeting has recently emerged as an effective tool to help prioritize efforts to identify and manage geographic areas, chemicals, facilities, and agricultural activities that cause the most environmental degradation. This paper focuses on how the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently used risk-based targeting to identify and screen Federal, industrial, commercial and municipal facilities which contribute to probable human health (fish consumption advisories and contaminated fish tissue) and aquatic life (contaminated sediments) impacts. Preliminary results identified several hundred potential contributors of problem chemicals to probable impacts within the same river reach in 1991--93. Analysis by industry sector showed that the majority of the facilities identified were publicly owned treatment works (POTWs), in addition to industry organic and inorganic chemical manufacturers, petroleum refineries, and electric services, coatings, engravings, and allied services, among others. Both compliant and non-compliant potentially contributing facilities were identified to some extent in all EPA regions. Additional results identifying possible linkages of other pollutant sources to probable impacts, as well as estimation of potential exposure of these contaminants to minority and/or poverty populations are also presented. Out of these analyses, a number of short and long-term strategies are being developed that EPA may use to reduce loadings of problem contaminants to impacted waterbodies.

  12. Study of operational risk-based configuration control

    SciTech Connect

    Vesely, W E; Samanta, P K; Kim, I S

    1991-08-01

    This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

  13. Performance- and risk-based regulation

    SciTech Connect

    Sauter, G.D.

    1994-12-31

    Risk-based regulation (RBR) and performance-based regulation (PBR) are two relatively new concepts for the regulation of nuclear reactor power plants by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Although RBR and PBR are often considered to be somewhat equivalent, they, in fact, address two fundamentally different regulatory questions. To fruitfully discuss these two concepts, it is important to recognize what each entails. This paper identifies those two fundamental questions and discusses how they are addressed by RBR and PBR.

  14. Lessons for PPGIS from the application of a decision-support tool in the Nova Forest Alliance of Nova Scotia, Canada.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Candace; Beazley, Karen; Boxall, James

    2009-05-01

    The effectiveness of a decision-support tool created to identify protected-area potential within the Nova Forest Alliance (NFA) of Nova Scotia, Canada is assessed from the perspective of a public participatory geographic information system (PPGIS) approach. The application sought to create an integrated GIS-based decision-support tool for community-focused communication and conservation assessment among NFA partners (including private woodland owners, government agencies, forest companies, and non-government organizations) and potential application within other model forests in Canada. The application illustrated that the GIS-based tool, once set up and populated with the necessary data, was able to generate effective visual alternatives to support decision making within the NFA community and elsewhere. However, from a PPGIS perspective, the application faced challenges that influenced the efficacy of its implementation: (1) limitations arose around data quality, use and sharing policies; (2) although opportunities for participation by the NFA partnership were initiated, these proved insufficient to achieve adequate engagement, buy in and support for the process and outcomes; and (3) the expert-grounded GIS-based tool requires a greater degree of expertise than may currently be present in the community. These challenges limit its ongoing use in the NFA and its potential utility in other model forests. For PPGIS-decision-support applications to be effective in the NFA and elsewhere, it is suggested that the following conditions be met: (1) implementation of geographically based data policies to allow for greater data accessibility, specifically with fewer bureaucratic and private sector barriers; (2) engagement of community partners in the initial project design, goal-setting and subsequent stages, even if this requires extensions to anticipated timelines; and (3) development of effective participatory technical systems that meet the needs of participants without

  15. [The issue of dialysis withdrawal and palliative cares. A 3-year retrospective study carried out at Grenoble university teaching hospital development of a decision-making tool].

    PubMed

    Jarrin, Guillemette; Maurizi-Balzan, Jocelyne; Laval, Guillemette

    2007-07-01

    Dialysis-related constraints encourage questioning about discontinuation of treatment. In France, the 04/22/2005 law, related to patients' rights and end-of-life issues, defines bounds to treatment withdrawal, authorizing it in specific conditions, to avoid foolish obstinacy. Shortly before the publication of this law, a study has been conducted at Grenoble University Teaching Hospital, involving 31 patients followed by the dialysis service and the palliative care service, in order to analyse the circumstances in which withdrawals from dialysis happen. These patients were old and their general condition was very poor. After initiation of the questioning, treatment was removed in older patients and in those who had been dialysed for short time, which suggests they may have poor adaption to the treatment. No dialysis withdrawal was ever decided without the patient consent or without his nearest and dearest consent. After multidisciplinary discussions, a decision-making tool for dialysis withdrawal has been developed, with a view to be a starting point in the thinking process, for each decision to be adapted to each situation. This tool emphasizes the importance of time and collegial consultation in the decision-making process. It points out to that the decision lies with the referent nephrologist. After withdrawing dialysis, palliative cares must be implemented, since stopping the treatment does not mean stopping cares. PMID:17658440

  16. Nottingham Prognostic Index Plus: Validation of a clinical decision making tool in breast cancer in an independent series.

    PubMed

    Green, Andrew R; Soria, Daniele; Stephen, Jacqueline; Powe, Desmond G; Nolan, Christopher C; Kunkler, Ian; Thomas, Jeremy; Kerr, Gillian R; Jack, Wilma; Cameron, David; Piper, Tammy; Ball, Graham R; Garibaldi, Jonathan M; Rakha, Emad A; Bartlett, John Ms; Ellis, Ian O

    2016-01-01

    The Nottingham Prognostic Index Plus (NPI+) is a clinical decision making tool in breast cancer (BC) that aims to provide improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI. This study aimed to validate the NPI+ in an independent series of BC. Eight hundred and eighty five primary early stage BC cases from Edinburgh were semi-quantitatively assessed for 10 biomarkers [Estrogen Receptor (ER), Progesterone Receptor (PgR), cytokeratin (CK) 5/6, CK7/8, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), HER2, HER3, HER4, p53, and Mucin 1] using immunohistochemistry and classified into biological classes by fuzzy logic-derived algorithms previously developed in the Nottingham series. Subsequently, NPI+ Prognostic Groups (PGs) were assigned for each class using bespoke NPI-like formulae, previously developed in each NPI+ biological class of the Nottingham series, utilising clinicopathological parameters: number of positive nodes, pathological tumour size, stage, tubule formation, nuclear pleomorphism and mitotic counts. Biological classes and PGs were compared between the Edinburgh and Nottingham series using Cramer's V and their role in patient outcome prediction using Kaplan-Meier curves and tested using Log Rank. The NPI+ biomarker panel classified the Edinburgh series into seven biological classes similar to the Nottingham series (p > 0.01). The biological classes were significantly associated with patient outcome (p < 0.001). PGs were comparable in predicting patient outcome between series in Luminal A, Basal p53 altered, HER2+/ER+ tumours (p > 0.01). The good PGs were similarly validated in Luminal B, Basal p53 normal, HER2+/ER- tumours and the poor PG in the Luminal N class (p > 0.01). Due to small patient numbers assigned to the remaining PGs, Luminal N, Luminal B, Basal p53 normal and HER2+/ER- classes could not be validated. This study demonstrates the reproducibility of NPI+ and confirmed its prognostic value in an independent cohort

  17. Estuarine science and decision-support tools to restore Puget Sound delta and estuarine ecosystems: The Skagit River Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossman, E. E.; Rosenbauer, R. J.; Takesue, R. K.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Reisenbichler, R.; Paulson, A.; Sexton, N. R.; Labiosa, B.; Beamer, E. M.; Hood, G.; Wyllie-Echeverria, S.

    2006-12-01

    planning, we are integrating a Geographic Information System of land use, ecologic, and hydrodynamic attributes with a hydrodynamic process model to (1) quantitatively estimate land-use impacts on ecologic functions and (2) to provide decision-support tools to help develop and implement effective restoration strategies that will balance socioeconomic demands and ecologic function of the Puget Sound lowlands.

  18. Treatment of uncertainties in risk-based regulation

    SciTech Connect

    Camp, A.L.

    1994-12-31

    Over the past several years, we have begun to fully appreciate the value of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as a decision support tool. Risk assessment has allowed us to focus on problems of real importance and provided discipline to prioritization processes. Many government agencies now consider risk assessment as a normal and essential element of their decision making. Due to the inherent uncertainty in the results, use of absolute PRA numbers to make specific decisions was not encouraged by risk assessment experts in the past. The current trend , however, is to make more and more use of the absolute numbers and (in some cases) to use them directly to make regulatory decisions. Whether or not we approve of this trend, it will almost certainly continue. Therefore, it is incumbent upon risk assessment experts to provide information to decision-makers that is properly characterized. This characterization should include a clear presentation of the uncertainties involved in the risk estimates. Uncertainty analysis is often considered undesirable by decision-makers, because it muddies up the waters of an other-wise clear cut decision.

  19. Invasive Species Forecasting System: A Decision Support Tool for the U.S. Geological Survey: FY 2005 Benchmarking Report v.1.6

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stohlgren, Tom; Schnase, John; Morisette, Jeffrey; Most, Neal; Sheffner, Ed; Hutchinson, Charles; Drake, Sam; Van Leeuwen, Willem; Kaupp, Verne

    2005-01-01

    The National Institute of Invasive Species Science (NIISS), through collaboration with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), recently began incorporating NASA observations and predictive modeling tools to fulfill its mission. These enhancements, labeled collectively as the Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS), are now in place in the NIISS in their initial state (V1.0). The ISFS is the primary decision support tool of the NIISS for the management and control of invasive species on Department of Interior and adjacent lands. The ISFS is the backbone for a unique information services line-of-business for the NIISS, and it provides the means for delivering advanced decision support capabilities to a wide range of management applications. This report describes the operational characteristics of the ISFS, a decision support tool of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Recent enhancements to the performance of the ISFS, attained through the integration of observations, models, and systems engineering from the NASA are benchmarked; i.e., described quantitatively and evaluated in relation to the performance of the USGS system before incorporation of the NASA enhancements. This report benchmarks Version 1.0 of the ISFS.

  20. Concepts for risk-based surveillance in the field of veterinary medicine and veterinary public health: Review of current approaches

    PubMed Central

    Stärk, Katharina DC; Regula, Gertraud; Hernandez, Jorge; Knopf, Lea; Fuchs, Klemens; Morris, Roger S; Davies, Peter

    2006-01-01

    Background Emerging animal and zoonotic diseases and increasing international trade have resulted in an increased demand for veterinary surveillance systems. However, human and financial resources available to support government veterinary services are becoming more and more limited in many countries world-wide. Intuitively, issues that present higher risks merit higher priority for surveillance resources as investments will yield higher benefit-cost ratios. The rapid rate of acceptance of this core concept of risk-based surveillance has outpaced the development of its theoretical and practical bases. Discussion The principal objectives of risk-based veterinary surveillance are to identify surveillance needs to protect the health of livestock and consumers, to set priorities, and to allocate resources effectively and efficiently. An important goal is to achieve a higher benefit-cost ratio with existing or reduced resources. We propose to define risk-based surveillance systems as those that apply risk assessment methods in different steps of traditional surveillance design for early detection and management of diseases or hazards. In risk-based designs, public health, economic and trade consequences of diseases play an important role in selection of diseases or hazards. Furthermore, certain strata of the population of interest have a higher probability to be sampled for detection of diseases or hazards. Evaluation of risk-based surveillance systems shall prove that the efficacy of risk-based systems is equal or higher than traditional systems; however, the efficiency (benefit-cost ratio) shall be higher in risk-based surveillance systems. Summary Risk-based surveillance considerations are useful to support both strategic and operational decision making. This article highlights applications of risk-based surveillance systems in the veterinary field including food safety. Examples are provided for risk-based hazard selection, risk-based selection of sampling strata as

  1. Chemical assessment state of the science: Evaluation of 32 decision-support tools used to screen and prioritize chemicals.

    PubMed

    Gauthier, Alison M; Fung, Mai; Panko, Julie; Kingsbury, Tony; Perez, Angela L; Hitchcock, Kristen; Ferracini, Tyler; Sahmel, Jennifer; Banducci, Amber; Jacobsen, Megan; Abelmann, Anders; Shay, Erin

    2015-04-01

    The last decade has seen an increased focus on evaluating the safety and sustainability of chemicals in consumer and industrial products. In order to effectively and accurately evaluate safety and sustainability, tools are needed to characterize hazard, exposure, and risk pertaining to products and processes. Because many of these tools will be used to identify problematic chemistries, and because many have potential applications in various steps of an alternatives analysis, the limitations and capabilities of available tools should be understood by users so that, ultimately, potential chemical risk is accurately reflected. In our study, we examined 32 chemical characterization tools from government, industry, academia, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The tools we studied were diverse, and varied widely in their scope and assessment. As such, they were separated into five categories for comparison: 1) Screening and Prioritization; 2) Database Utilization; 3) Hazard Assessment; 4) Exposure and Risk Assessment; and 5) Certification and Labeling. Each tool was scored based on our weighted set of criteria, and then compared to other tools in the same category. Ten tools received a high score in one or more categories; 24 tools received a medium score in one or more categories, and five tools received a low score in one or more categories. Although some tools were placed into more than one category, no tool encompassed all five of the assessment categories. Though many of the tools evaluated may be useful for providing guidance for hazards - and, in some cases, exposure - few tools characterize risk. To our knowledge, this study is the first to critically evaluate a large set of chemical assessment tools and provide an understanding of their strengths and limitations. PMID:25377590

  2. Development of a First-of-a-Kind Deterministic Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

    SciTech Connect

    Cetiner, Sacit M; Kisner, Roger A; Muhlheim, Michael David; Fugate, David L

    2015-07-01

    Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives where each alternative offers a different approach or path to move from a given state or condition to a desired state or condition. The generation of consistent decisions requires that a structured, coherent process be defined, immediately leading to a decision-making framework. The overall objective of the generalized framework is for it to be adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision- making modules that can perform a given set of tasks reliably. Risk-informed decision making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The implementation of the probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the proposed supervisory control system was detailed in previous milestone reports. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses variable sensor data (e.g., outlet temperature) and calculates where it is within the challenge state, its trajectory, and margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. Metrics to be evaluated include stability, cost, time to complete (action), power level, etc. The

  3. A Web-Based Tool to Support Shared Decision Making for People With a Psychotic Disorder: Randomized Controlled Trial and Process Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Emerencia, Ando C; Boonstra, Nynke; Wunderink, Lex; de Jonge, Peter; Sytema, Sjoerd

    2013-01-01

    Background Mental health policy makers encourage the development of electronic decision aids to increase patient participation in medical decision making. Evidence is needed to determine whether these decision aids are helpful in clinical practice and whether they lead to increased patient involvement and better outcomes. Objective This study reports the outcome of a randomized controlled trial and process evaluation of a Web-based intervention to facilitate shared decision making for people with psychotic disorders. Methods The study was carried out in a Dutch mental health institution. Patients were recruited from 2 outpatient teams for patients with psychosis (N=250). Patients in the intervention condition (n=124) were provided an account to access a Web-based information and decision tool aimed to support patients in acquiring an overview of their needs and appropriate treatment options provided by their mental health care organization. Patients were given the opportunity to use the Web-based tool either on their own (at their home computer or at a computer of the service) or with the support of an assistant. Patients in the control group received care as usual (n=126). Half of the patients in the sample were patients experiencing a first episode of psychosis; the other half were patients with a chronic psychosis. Primary outcome was patient-perceived involvement in medical decision making, measured with the Combined Outcome Measure for Risk Communication and Treatment Decision-making Effectiveness (COMRADE). Process evaluation consisted of questionnaire-based surveys, open interviews, and researcher observation. Results In all, 73 patients completed the follow-up measurement and were included in the final analysis (response rate 29.2%). More than one-third (48/124, 38.7%) of the patients who were provided access to the Web-based decision aid used it, and most used its full functionality. No differences were found between the intervention and control conditions

  4. Does accountability for reasonableness work? A protocol for a mixed methods study using an audit tool to evaluate the decision-making of clinical commissioning groups in England

    PubMed Central

    Kieslich, Katharina; Littlejohns, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) in England are tasked with making difficult decisions on which healthcare services to provide against the background of limited budgets. The question is how to ensure that these decisions are fair and legitimate. Accounts of what constitutes fair and legitimate priority setting in healthcare include Daniels’ and Sabin's accountability for reasonableness (A4R) and Clark's and Weale's framework for the identification of social values. This study combines these accounts and asks whether the decisions of those CCGs that adhere to elements of such accounts are perceived as fairer and more legitimate by key stakeholders. The study addresses the empirical gap arising from a lack of research on whether frameworks such as A4R hold what they promise. It aims to understand the criteria that feature in CCG decision-making. Finally, it examines the usefulness of a decision-making audit tool (DMAT) in identifying the process and content criteria that CCGs apply when making decisions. Methods and analysis The adherence of a sample of CCGs to criteria emerging from theories of fair priority setting will be examined using the DMAT developed by PL. The results will be triangulated with data from semistructured interviews with key stakeholders in the CCG sample to ascertain whether there is a correlation between those CCGs that performed well in the DMAT exercise and those whose decisions are perceived positively by interviewees. Descriptive statistical methods will be used to analyse the DMAT data. A combination of quantitative and qualitative content analysis methods will be used to analyse the interview transcripts. Ethics and dissemination Full ethics approval was received by the King's College London Biomedical Sciences, Dentistry, Medicine and Natural and Mathematical Sciences Research Ethics Subcommittee. The results of the study will be disseminated through publications in peer review journals. PMID:26163034

  5. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    SciTech Connect

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-12-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an `expert panel.` The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC`s increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the {open_quotes}expert panel{close_quotes} and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate.

  6. Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Sojda, Richard S.

    2013-08-01

    Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very "sharp"). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest "sharpening" can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

  7. Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Thompson, Julie; Leclaire, Rene; Edward, Bryan; Jones, Edward

    2014-06-01

    Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, risk–based technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by an integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.

  8. The Assurance of Learning Tool as Predictor and Criterion in Business School Admissions Decisions: New Use for an Old Standard?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pesta, Bryan J.; Scherer, Robert F.

    2011-01-01

    The Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business incorporates program assessment as an integral part of the accreditation process. Assessment tools created to meet assurance of learning standards, however, must go beyond grades and measure student learning directly. The author shows that an in-house assessment tool predicted student…

  9. WMOST: A tool for assessing cost-benefits of watershed management decisions affecting community resilience under varying climate regimes

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST v.1) was released by the US Environmental Protection Agency in December 2013 (http://www2.epa.gov/exposure-assessment-models/wmost-10-download-page). The objective of WMOST is to serve as a public-domain screening tool th...

  10. Web-based decision support and visualization tools for water quality management in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mullinix, C.; Hearn, P.; Zhang, H.; Aguinaldo, J.

    2009-01-01

    Federal, State, and local water quality managers charged with restoring the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem require tools to maximize the impact of their limited resources. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Environmental Protection Agency's Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) are developing a suite of Web-based tools called the Chesapeake Online Assessment Support Toolkit (COAST). The goal of COAST is to help CBP partners identify geographic areas where restoration activities would have the greatest effect, select the appropriate management strategies, and improve coordination and prioritization among partners. As part of the COAST suite of tools focused on environmental restoration, a water quality management visualization component called the Nutrient Yields Mapper (NYM) tool is being developed by USGS. The NYM tool is a web application that uses watershed yield estimates from USGS SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) attributes model (Schwarz et al., 2006) [6] to allow water quality managers to identify important sources of nitrogen and phosphorous within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The NYM tool utilizes new open source technologies that have become popular in geospatial web development, including components such as OpenLayers and GeoServer. This paper presents examples of water quality data analysis based on nutrient type, source, yield, and area of interest using the NYM tool for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. In addition, we describe examples of map-based techniques for identifying high and low nutrient yield areas; web map engines; and data visualization and data management techniques.

  11. The STRATEGY project: decision tools to aid sustainable restoration and long-term management of contaminated agricultural ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Howard, B J; Beresford, N A; Nisbet, A; Cox, G; Oughton, D H; Hunt, J; Alvarez, B; Andersson, K G; Liland, A; Voigt, G

    2005-01-01

    The STRATEGY project (Sustainable Restoration and Long-Term Management of Contaminated Rural, Urban and Industrial Ecosystems) aimed to provide a holistic decision framework for the selection of optimal restoration strategies for the long-term sustainable management of contaminated areas in Western Europe. A critical evaluation was carried out of countermeasures and waste disposal options, from which compendia of state-of-the-art restoration methods were compiled. A decision support system capable of optimising spatially varying restoration strategies, that considered the level of averted dose, costs (including those of waste disposal) and environmental side effects was developed. Appropriate methods of estimating indirect costs associated with side effects and of communicating with stakeholders were identified. The importance of stakeholder consultation at a local level and of ensuring that any response is site and scenario specific were emphasised. A value matrix approach was suggested as a method of addressing social and ethical issues within the decision-making process, and was designed to be compatible with both the countermeasure compendia and the decision support system. The applicability and usefulness of STRATEGY outputs for food production systems in the medium to long term is assessed. PMID:15905001

  12. Computeer-based decision support tools for evaluation of actions affecting flow and water quality in the San Joaquin Basin

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, N.W.T.

    1993-01-01

    This document is a preliminary effort to draw together some of the important simulation models that are available to Reclamation or that have been developed by Reclamation since 1987. This document has also attempted to lay out a framework by which these models might be used both for the purposes for which they were originally intended and to support the analysis of other issues that relate to the hydrology and to salt and water quality management within the San Joaquin Valley. To be successful as components of a larger Decision Support System the models should to be linked together using custom designed interfaces that permit data sharing between models and that are easy to use. Several initiatives are currently underway within Reclamation to develop GIS - based and graphics - based decision support systems to improve the general level of understanding of the models currently in use, to standardize the methodology used in making planning and operations studies and to permit improved data analysis, interpretation and display. The decision support systems should allow greater participation in the planning process, allow the analysis of innovative actions that are currently difficult to study with present models and should lead to better integrated and more comprehensive plans and policy decisions in future years.

  13. An Ethical Decision-Making Model: A Necessary Tool for Community College Presidents and Boards of Trustees.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Sharon K.; Davies, Timothy Gray

    2000-01-01

    Presents an ethical decision-making model that can help presidents and boards maneuver through difficult situations. Describes six steps: identifying the ethical dilemma; gathering facts, self-monitoring, and consulting; asking important questions; creating alternate courses of action; evaluating alternatives; and implementing a course of action…

  14. Development of a decision support tool for water and resource management using biotic, abiotic, and hydrological assessments of Topock Marsh, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holmquist-Johnson, Christopher; Hanson, Leanne; Daniels, Joan; Talbert, Colin; Haegele, Jeanette

    2016-01-01

    Topock Marsh is a large wetland adjacent to the Colorado River and the main feature of Havasu National Wildlife Refuge (Havasu NWR) in southern Arizona. In 2010, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and Bureau of Reclamation began a project to improve water management capabilities at Topock Marsh and protect habitats and species. Initial construction required a drawdown, which caused below-average inflows and water depths in 2010–11. U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) scientists collected an assemblage of biotic, abiotic, and hydrologic data from Topock Marsh during the drawdown and immediately after, thus obtaining valuable information needed by FWS.Building upon that work, FORT developed a decision support system (DSS) to better understand ecosystem health and function of Topock Marsh under various hydrologic conditions. The DSS was developed using a spatially explicit geographic information system package of historical data, habitat indices, and analytical tools to synthesize outputs for hydrologic time periods. Deliverables include high-resolution orthorectified imagery of Topock Marsh; a DSS tool that can be used by Havasu NWR to compare habitat availability associated with three hydrologic scenarios (dry, average, wet years); and this final report which details study results. This project, therefore, has addressed critical FWS management questions by integrating ecologic and hydrologic information into a DSS framework. This DSS will assist refuge management to make better informed decisions about refuge operations and better understand the ecological results of those decisions by providing tools to identify the effects of water operations on species-specific habitat and ecological processes. While this approach was developed to help FWS use the best available science to determine more effective water management strategies at Havasu NWR, technologies used in this study could be applied elsewhere within the region.

  15. A Web-Based Clinical Decision Support Tool for Primary Health Care Management of Back Pain: Development and Mixed Methods Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Christopher; Holbrook, Rachel; Lindner, Robyn; Reeve, James; Das, Anurina; Maher, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Background Many patients with back pain do not receive health care in accordance with best practice recommendations. Implementation trials to address this issue have had limited success. Despite the known effectiveness of clinical decision support systems (CDSS), none of these are available for back pain management. Objective The objective of our study was to develop a Web-based CDSS to support Australian general practitioners (GPs) to diagnose and manage back pain according to guidelines. Methods Asking a panel of international experts to review recommendations for sixteen clinical vignettes validated the tool. It was then launched nationally as part of National Pain Week and promoted to GPs via a media release and clinic based visits. Following this, a mixed methods evaluation was conducted to determine tool feasibility, acceptability, and utility. The 12 month usage data were analyzed, and in-depth, semistructured interviews with 20 GPs were conducted to identify barriers and enablers to uptake. Results The tool had acceptable face validity when reviewed by experts. Over a 12 month period there were 7125 website visits with 4503 (63.20%) unique users. Assuming most unique users are GPs, around one quarter of the country’s GPs may have used the tool at least once. Although usage was high, GP interviews highlighted the sometimes complex nature of management where the tool may not influence care. Conversely, several “touch-points”, whereby the tool may exert its influence, were identified, most notably patient engagement. Conclusions A novel CDSS tool has the potential to assist with evidence-based management of back pain. A clinical trial is required to determine its impact on practitioner and patient outcomes. PMID:24694921

  16. Development of an Optimal Water Allocation Decision Tool for the Major Crops During the Water Deficit Period in the Southeast U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paudel, Krishna P.; Limaye, Ashutosh; Hatch, Upton; Cruise, James; Musleh, Fuad

    2005-01-01

    We developed a dynamic model to optimize irrigation application in three major crops (corn, cotton and peanuts) grown in the Southeast USA. Water supply amount is generated from an engineering model which is then combined with economic models to find the optimal amount of irrigation water to apply on each crop field during the six critical water deficit weeks in summer. Results indicate that water is applied on the crop with the highest marginal value product of irrigation. Decision making tool such as the one developed here would help farmers and policy makers to find the maximum profitable solution when water shortage is a serious concern.

  17. Feasibility of integrating a clinical decision support tool into an existing computerized physician order entry system to increase seasonal influenza vaccination in the emergency department.

    PubMed

    Venkat, Arvind; Chan-Tompkins, Noreen H; Hegde, Gajanan G; Chuirazzi, David M; Hunter, Roger; Szczesiul, Jillian M

    2010-08-23

    While emergency department (ED) seasonal influenza vaccination programs are feasible, reported implementation barriers include added staffing requirements to identify eligible patients and getting busy ED personnel to order and provide vaccination. We present a prospective, observational trial of integrating a clinical decision support tool into an existing ED computerized physician order entry (CPOE) system to increase ED seasonal influenza vaccination without added staffing resources, the operational barriers identified to program implementation, the revenue generated and data on opportunities for future quality improvement. Compared to the comparable pre-protocol period, ED influenza vaccination rose by 17.5% with a resultant profit margin of 34.5%. PMID:20620167

  18. Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

  19. Developing an Ecosystem Services online Decision Support Tool to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change and Urban Growth in the Santa Cruz Watershed; Where We Live, Work, and Play

    EPA Science Inventory

    Processes through which ecosystems provide goods or benefit people can be referred to as "ecosystems services”, which may be quantified to clarify decision-making, with techniques including cost-benefit analysis. We are developing an online decision support tool, the Santa Cruz W...

  20. Algorithm for decision support as the tool for control system of industries with variable assortment of products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ladaniuk, Anatolii; Ivashchuk, Viacheslav; Kisała, Piotr; Askarova, Nursanat; Sagymbekova, Azhar

    2015-12-01

    Conditions of diversification of enterprise products are involving for changes of higher levels of management hierarchy, so it's leading by tasks correcting and changing schedule for operating of production plans. Ordinary solve by combination of enterprise resource are planning and management execution system often has exclusively statistical content. So, the development of decision support system, that helps to use knowledge about subject for capabilities estimating and order of operation of production object is relevant in this time.

  1. Bayesian decision analysis as a tool for defining monitoring needs in the field of effects of CSOs on receiving waters.

    PubMed

    Korving, H; Clemens, F

    2002-01-01

    In recent years, decision analysis has become an important technique in many disciplines. It provides a methodology for rational decision-making allowing for uncertainties in the outcome of several possible actions to be undertaken. An example in urban drainage is the situation in which an engineer has to decide upon a major reconstruction of a system in order to prevent pollution of receiving waters due to CSOs. This paper describes the possibilities of Bayesian decision-making in urban drainage. In particular, the utility of monitoring prior to deciding on the reconstruction of a sewer system to reduce CSO emissions is studied. Our concern is with deciding whether a price should be paid for new information and which source of information is the best choice given the expected uncertainties in the outcome. The influence of specific uncertainties (sewer system data and model parameters) on the probability of CSO volumes is shown to be significant. Using Bayes' rule, to combine prior impressions with new observations, reduces the risks linked with the planning of sewer system reconstructions. PMID:11902469

  2. [Regional version of guidelines for the use of artificial hydration and nutrition with a decision-making support tool for older adults in Northern Iwate Prefecture, Japan].

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    The Japan Geriatrics Society (JGS) published the JGS Guidelines for Decision-making in the Care of the Elderly Focusing on Indications for Artificial Hydration and Nutrition (AHN) in June 2012. While these guidelines have been implemented in medical practice, they have not pervaded the awareness of the common public, especially in the countryside. Therefore, we developed a set of guidelines and a support tool for the use of AHN in older adults in our community, northern Iwate Prefecture, Japan in accordance with the original guidelines. Our guidelines consist of three sections: "The wishes of the patient and his/her family members,"Evaluation of the patient's general medical condition" and "The selection of a facility for medical treatment." People from various occupations took part in our conference, including patients and their family members, attending doctors and nurses, social workers, speech therapists, nursing home staff and so on. The first and foremost priority is to consider whether the decision to extend a patient's life corresponds with that patient's own narrative. It is burdensome for non-experts to participate in a conference attended by a variety of professionals. Therefore, we created a support tool for introducing AHN in order to alleviate psychological stress among the participants of this conference. The tool consists of 28 items in which the participant is asked to answer all questions, in the expectation that this activity will reduce their mental burden. It is important to conduct such activities, as well as improve the quality of the content of the guidelines and support tool. PMID:24999203

  3. WMOST: A tool for assessing cost-benefits of watershed management decisions affecting community resilience under varying climate regimes.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST v.1) was released by the US Environmental Protection Agency in December 2013(http://www2.epa.gov/exposure-assessment-models/wmost-10-download-page). The objective of WMOST is to serve as a public-domain screening toolthat ...

  4. Development of a Self-Assessment Tool to Facilitate Decision-Making in Choosing a Long Term Care Administration Major

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johs-Artisensi, Jennifer L.; Olson, Douglas M.; Nahm, Abraham Y.

    2016-01-01

    Long term care administrators need a broad base of knowledge, skills, and interests to provide leadership and be successful in managing a fiscally responsible, quality long term care organization. Researchers developed a tool to help students assess whether a long term care administration major is a compatible fit. With input from professionals in…

  5. A Review and Analysis of Remote Sensing Capability for Air Quality Measurements as a Potential Decision Support Tool Conducted by the NASA DEVELOP Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, A.; Richards, A.; Keith, K.; Frew, C.; Boseck, J.; Sutton, S.; Watts, C.; Rickman, D.

    2007-01-01

    This project focused on a comprehensive utilization of air quality model products as decision support tools (DST) needed for public health applications. A review of past and future air quality measurement methods and their uncertainty, along with the relationship of air quality to national and global public health, is vital. This project described current and future NASA satellite remote sensing and ground sensing capabilities and the potential for using these sensors to enhance the prediction, prevention, and control of public health effects that result from poor air quality. The qualitative uncertainty of current satellite remotely sensed air quality, the ground-based remotely sensed air quality, the air quality/public health model, and the decision making process is evaluated in this study. Current peer-reviewed literature suggests that remotely sensed air quality parameters correlate well with ground-based sensor data. A satellite remote-sensed and ground-sensed data complement is needed to enhance the models/tools used by policy makers for the protection of national and global public health communities

  6. MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

    2016-04-01

    In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process

  7. Emotional engagement with participatory simulations as a tool for learning and decision-support for coupled human-natural systems: Flood hazards and urban development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, J. M.; Corey, B.; Camp, J. V.; John, N. J.; Sengupta, P.

    2015-12-01

    The complex interactions between land use and natural hazards pose serious challenges in education, research, and public policy. Where complex nonlinear interactions produce unintuitive results, interactive computer simulations can be useful tools for education and decision support. Emotions play important roles in cognition and learning, especially where risks are concerned. Interactive simulations have the potential to harness emotional engagement to enhance learning and understanding of risks in coupled human-natural systems. We developed a participatory agent-based simulation of cities at risk of river flooding. Participants play the role of managers of neighboring cities along a flood-prone river and make choices about building flood walls to protect their inhabitants. Simulated agents participate in dynamic real estate markets in which demand for property, and thus values and decisions to build, respond to experience with flooding over time. By reducing high-frequency low-magnitude flooding, flood walls may stimulate development, thus increasing tax revenues but also increasing vulnerability to uncommon floods that overtop the walls. Flood waves are launched stochastically and propagate downstream. Flood walls that restrict overbank flow at one city can increase the amplitude of a flood wave at neighboring cities, both up and downstream. We conducted a pilot experiment with a group of three pre-service teachers. The subjects successfully learned key concepts of risk tradeoffs and unintended consequences that can accompany flood-control measures. We also observed strong emotional responses, including hope, fear, and sense of loss. This emotional engagement with a model of coupled human-natural systems was very different from previous experiments on participatory simulations of purely natural systems for physics pedagogy. We conducted a second session in which the participants were expert engineers. We will present the results of these experiments and the

  8. Developing a model based decision support tool for the identification of sustainable treatment options for domestic wastewater.

    PubMed

    Balkema, A J; Preisig, H A; Otterpohl, R; Lambert, A J; Weijers, S R

    2001-01-01

    To enable decision makers to select sustainable wastewater treatment systems, insight into the sustainability of a wide variety of systems should be provided in a transparent way leaving room for adaptation and interpretation according to the local situation. To provide this insight a structured methodology comparing wastewater treatment systems with respect to sustainability is defined. Similar to life cycle assessment (LCA) three phases can be distinguished: (1) goal and scope definition, (2) inventory analysis, and (3) optimisation and results. In the goal and scope definition we set the system boundaries to include most of the water cycle and part of the food cycle. Furthermore, we defined a multi-disciplinary set of sustainability indicators including technical, economic, environmental, and socio-cultural aspects. In the inventory analysis these sustainability indicators are quantified using simple static models of wastewater unit operations. Selection of unit operations results in a model of a complete wastewater treatment system. In the optimisation phase the decision maker can weigh the different sustainability indicators and select sustainable options through integer programming. PMID:11385856

  9. The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 3, Analysis for final programmatic recommendations

    SciTech Connect

    Prindle, N.H.; Boak, D.M.; Weiner, R.F.

    1996-05-01

    Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) is a decision-aiding tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the US DOE Carlsbad Area Office (DOE/CAO). This tool provides an analytical basis for programmatic decision making for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). SPM integrates decision-analysis techniques, performance,a nd risk-assessment tools, and advanced information technology. Potential outcomes of proposed activities and combination of activities are used to calculate a probability of demonstrating compliance (PDC) with selected regulations. The results are presented in a decision matrix showing cost, duration, and maximum PDC for all activities in a given cost and duration category. This is the third and final volume in the series which presents the analysis for final programmatic recommendations.

  10. Rapid decision support tool based on novel ecosystem service variables for retrofitting of permeable pavement systems in the presence of trees.

    PubMed

    Scholz, Miklas; Uzomah, Vincent C

    2013-08-01

    The retrofitting of sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) such as permeable pavements is currently undertaken ad hoc using expert experience supported by minimal guidance based predominantly on hard engineering variables. There is a lack of practical decision support tools useful for a rapid assessment of the potential of ecosystem services when retrofitting permeable pavements in urban areas that either feature existing trees or should be planted with trees in the near future. Thus the aim of this paper is to develop an innovative rapid decision support tool based on novel ecosystem service variables for retrofitting of permeable pavement systems close to trees. This unique tool proposes the retrofitting of permeable pavements that obtained the highest ecosystem service score for a specific urban site enhanced by the presence of trees. This approach is based on a novel ecosystem service philosophy adapted to permeable pavements rather than on traditional engineering judgement associated with variables based on quick community and environment assessments. For an example case study area such as Greater Manchester, which was dominated by Sycamore and Common Lime, a comparison with the traditional approach of determining community and environment variables indicates that permeable pavements are generally a preferred SuDS option. Permeable pavements combined with urban trees received relatively high scores, because of their great potential impact in terms of water and air quality improvement, and flood control, respectively. The outcomes of this paper are likely to lead to more combined permeable pavement and tree systems in the urban landscape, which are beneficial for humans and the environment. PMID:23697848

  11. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.3 Risk-based capital requirement....

  12. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.3 Risk-based capital requirement....

  13. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.3 Risk-based capital requirement....

  14. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.3 Risk-based capital requirement....

  15. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.3 Risk-based capital requirement....

  16. Tool for Ranking Research Options

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ortiz, James N.; Scott, Kelly; Smith, Harold

    2005-01-01

    Tool for Research Enhancement Decision Support (TREDS) is a computer program developed to assist managers in ranking options for research aboard the International Space Station (ISS). It could likely also be adapted to perform similar decision-support functions in industrial and academic settings. TREDS provides a ranking of the options, based on a quantifiable assessment of all the relevant programmatic decision factors of benefit, cost, and risk. The computation of the benefit for each option is based on a figure of merit (FOM) for ISS research capacity that incorporates both quantitative and qualitative inputs. Qualitative inputs are gathered and partly quantified by use of the time-tested analytical hierarchical process and used to set weighting factors in the FOM corresponding to priorities determined by the cognizant decision maker(s). Then by use of algorithms developed specifically for this application, TREDS adjusts the projected benefit for each option on the basis of levels of technical implementation, cost, and schedule risk. Based partly on Excel spreadsheets, TREDS provides screens for entering cost, benefit, and risk information. Drop-down boxes are provided for entry of qualitative information. TREDS produces graphical output in multiple formats that can be tailored by users.

  17. Waste management project's alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    SciTech Connect

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is examined. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives' B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project's alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  18. Risk-based inspection of pressurizer surge lines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, Nitin J.; Dwivedy, Keshab K.

    1996-11-01

    The Reactor Coolant System (RCS) piping of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant is probably the best in terms of resistance to known degradation mechanisms of passive components. However, a failure in the RCS piping is extremely important in terms of safety and economic significance. Therefore, an effective management tool is needed to mitigate the potential effects of degradation due to aging or other effects such that plant reliability and availability are not affected. Currently, the RCS piping of all US PWR plants is being subjected to inservice inspection (ISI) based upon certain deterministics criteria set by the ASME code and the NRC regulatory guide. Even though the history of large RCS piping has not shown any degradation, the ISI continues at many locations at greta expense to the plant owners whereas, there can be only a few locations of relatively high vulnerability. A risk based ISI can provide an alternative and cost-effective solution in this situation. Pressurizer surge line is a unique segment in the RCS which is subjected to significant transient loadings due to stratification and striping during the normal heatup and cooldown processes. Therefore, the surge line is considered for illustration. Examples of structural reliability studies of pressurizer surge lines in four PWR units are presented in this paper to demonstrate possible reduction of ISI and significant cost saving without reduction of plant safety or reliability.

  19. Use of the ASTM standard for risk-based corrective action to support no further action at petroleum-impacted sites

    SciTech Connect

    Robles, H.; Haffman, B.; Manweiler, D.

    1996-08-01

    In July 1994, the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) published their Emergency Standard Guide for Risk-Based Corrective Action Applied to Petroleum Release Sites (ES 38-94). This document is a decision-making tool designed to help standardize, simplify and expedite the restoration and closure of sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons. To achieve these objectives, ES 38-94 directs the response efforts - site assessment and remediation - toward protection of human health and the environment. This is done using a tiered approach that advances from (1) evaluation of site-specific conditions and risks, to (2) screening risk assessment, to (3) sophisticated risk assessment. Sites already in remediation often require sophisticated risk assessment (Tier III) to advance the restoration/closure process. To aid such assessment, ES 38-94 provides the fate-and-transport models and exposure equations best designed for the evaluation of risks from petroleum release sites. This paper explains the ES 38-94 process, describes the application of the risk assessment models at two leaking underground fuel tank sites in California, and offers suggestions for the future use of risk-based corrective action methodology to support requests for no further action.

  20. Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Health care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics. Results The AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources. Conclusions The AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and

  1. Knowledge-based systems as decision support tools in an ecosystem approach to fisheries: Comparing a fuzzy-logic and a rule-based approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarre, Astrid; Paterson, Barbara; Moloney, Coleen L.; Miller, David C. M.; Field, John G.; Starfield, Anthony M.

    2008-10-01

    In an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF), management must draw on information of widely different types, and information addressing various scales. Knowledge-based systems assist in the decision-making process by summarising this information in a logical, transparent and reproducible way. Both rule-based Boolean and fuzzy-logic models have been used successfully as knowledge-based decision support tools. This study compares two such systems relevant to fisheries management in an EAF developed for the southern Benguela. The first is a rule-based system for the prediction of anchovy recruitment and the second is a fuzzy-logic tool to monitor implementation of an EAF in the sardine fishery. We construct a fuzzy-logic counterpart to the rule-based model, and a rule-based counterpart to the fuzzy-logic model, compare their results, and include feedback from potential users of these two decision support tools in our evaluation of the two approaches. With respect to the model objectives, no method clearly outperformed the other. The advantages of numerically processing continuous variables, and interpreting the final output, as in fuzzy-logic models, can be weighed up against the advantages of using a few, qualitative, easy-to-understand categories as in rule-based models. The natural language used in rule-based implementations is easily understood by, and communicated among, users of these systems. Users unfamiliar with fuzzy-set theory must “trust” the logic of the model. Graphical visualization of intermediate and end results is an important advantage of any system. Applying the two approaches in parallel improved our understanding of the model as well as of the underlying problems. Even for complex problems, small knowledge-based systems such as the ones explored here are worth developing and using. Their strengths lie in (i) synthesis of the problem in a logical and transparent framework, (ii) helping scientists to deliberate how to apply their science to

  2. A multimedia comprehensive informatics system with decision support tools for a multi-site collaboration research of stroke rehabilitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ximing; Documet, Jorge; Garrison, Kathleen A.; Winstein, Carolee J.; Liu, Brent

    2012-02-01

    Stroke is a major cause of adult disability. The Interdisciplinary Comprehensive Arm Rehabilitation Evaluation (I-CARE) clinical trial aims to evaluate a therapy for arm rehabilitation after stroke. A primary outcome measure is correlative analysis between stroke lesion characteristics and standard measures of rehabilitation progress, from data collected at seven research facilities across the country. Sharing and communication of brain imaging and behavioral data is thus a challenge for collaboration. A solution is proposed as a web-based system with tools supporting imaging and informatics related data. In this system, users may upload anonymized brain images through a secure internet connection and the system will sort the imaging data for storage in a centralized database. Users may utilize an annotation tool to mark up images. In addition to imaging informatics, electronic data forms, for example, clinical data forms, are also integrated. Clinical information is processed and stored in the database to enable future data mining related development. Tele-consultation is facilitated through the development of a thin-client image viewing application. For convenience, the system supports access through desktop PC, laptops, and iPAD. Thus, clinicians may enter data directly into the system via iPAD while working with participants in the study. Overall, this comprehensive imaging informatics system enables users to collect, organize and analyze stroke cases efficiently.

  3. A Framework for Context Sensitive Risk-Based Access Control in Medical Information Systems

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Donghee; Kim, Dohoon; Park, Seog

    2015-01-01

    Since the access control environment has changed and the threat of insider information leakage has come to the fore, studies on risk-based access control models that decide access permissions dynamically have been conducted vigorously. Medical information systems should protect sensitive data such as medical information from insider threat and enable dynamic access control depending on the context such as life-threatening emergencies. In this paper, we suggest an approach and framework for context sensitive risk-based access control suitable for medical information systems. This approach categorizes context information, estimating and applying risk through context- and treatment-based permission profiling and specifications by expanding the eXtensible Access Control Markup Language (XACML) to apply risk. The proposed framework supports quick responses to medical situations and prevents unnecessary insider data access through dynamic access authorization decisions in accordance with the severity of the context and treatment. PMID:26075013

  4. A Framework for Context Sensitive Risk-Based Access Control in Medical Information Systems.

    PubMed

    Choi, Donghee; Kim, Dohoon; Park, Seog

    2015-01-01

    Since the access control environment has changed and the threat of insider information leakage has come to the fore, studies on risk-based access control models that decide access permissions dynamically have been conducted vigorously. Medical information systems should protect sensitive data such as medical information from insider threat and enable dynamic access control depending on the context such as life-threatening emergencies. In this paper, we suggest an approach and framework for context sensitive risk-based access control suitable for medical information systems. This approach categorizes context information, estimating and applying risk through context- and treatment-based permission profiling and specifications by expanding the eXtensible Access Control Markup Language (XACML) to apply risk. The proposed framework supports quick responses to medical situations and prevents unnecessary insider data access through dynamic access authorization decisions in accordance with the severity of the context and treatment. PMID:26075013

  5. Increasing User Involvement in Health Care and Health Research Simultaneously: A Proto-Protocol for "Person-as-Researcher" and Online Decision Support Tools

    PubMed Central

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Nielsen, Jesper Bo; Salkeld, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    Background User involvement is appearing increasingly on policy agendas in many countries, with a variety of proposals for facilitating it. The belief is that it will produce better health for individuals and community, as well as demonstrate greater respect for the basic principles of autonomy and democracy. Objective Our Web-based project aims to increase involvement in health care and health research and is presented in the form of an umbrella protocol for a set of project-specific protocols. We conceptualize the person as a researcher engaged in a continual, living, informal “n-of-1”-type study of the effects of different actions and interventions on their health, including those implying contact with health care services. We see their research as primarily carried out in order to make better decisions for themselves, but they can offer to contribute the results to the wider population. We see the efforts of the "person-as-researcher" as contributing to the total amount of research undertaken in the community, with research not being confined to that undertaken by professional researchers and institutions. This view is fundamentally compatible with both the emancipatory and conventional approaches to increased user involvement, though somewhat more aligned with the former. Methods Our online decision support tools, delivered directly to the person in the community and openly accessible, are to be seen as research resources. They will take the form of interactive decision aids for a variety of specific health conditions, as well as a generic one that supports all health and health care decisions through its focus on key aspects of decision quality. We present a high-level protocol for the condition-specific studies that will implement our approach, organized within the Populations, Interventions, Comparators, Outcomes, Timings, and Settings (PICOTS) framework. Results Our underlying hypothesis concerns the person-as-researcher who is equipped with a

  6. LCA as a decision support tool for the environmental improvement of the operation of a municipal wastewater treatment plant.

    PubMed

    Pasqualino, Jorgelina C; Meneses, Montse; Abella, Montserrat; Castells, Francesc

    2009-05-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology is used to evaluate the environmental profile of a product or process from its origin to its final destination. In this paper we used LCA to evaluate the current situation of a wastewater treatment plant and identify improvement alternatives. Currently, the highest environmental impacts are caused by the stages of the plant with the highest energy consumption, the use of biogas from anaerobic digestion (95% burned in torch) and the final destination of the sludge (98.6% for agricultural use and 1.4% for compost). We propose four alternatives for biogas applications and five alternatives for sludge applications and compare them to the current situation. The alternatives were incorporated in a decision support system to identify and prioritize the most positive environmental option. Using biogas to produce electricity or a combination of electricity and heat provided the best environmental options since the energy produced would be enough to supply all the stages of the plant, thus reducing their environmental impact. The best environmental option for the final destination of the sludge is to combine the current situation (fertilizer replacement) with use of the sludge in a cement plant (as a replacement for fuel and raw material). PMID:19534150

  7. Spatial Bayesian belief networks as a planning decision tool for mapping ecosystem services trade-offs on forested landscapes.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez-Redin, Julen; Luque, Sandra; Poggio, Laura; Smith, Ron; Gimona, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    An integrated methodology, based on linking Bayesian belief networks (BBN) with GIS, is proposed for combining available evidence to help forest managers evaluate implications and trade-offs between forest production and conservation measures to preserve biodiversity in forested habitats. A Bayesian belief network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents variables and their dependencies through specifying probabilistic relationships. In spatially explicit decision problems where it is difficult to choose appropriate combinations of interventions, the proposed integration of a BBN with GIS helped to facilitate shared understanding of the human-landscape relationships, while fostering collective management that can be incorporated into landscape planning processes. Trades-offs become more and more relevant in these landscape contexts where the participation of many and varied stakeholder groups is indispensable. With these challenges in mind, our integrated approach incorporates GIS-based data with expert knowledge to consider two different land use interests - biodiversity value for conservation and timber production potential - with the focus on a complex mountain landscape in the French Alps. The spatial models produced provided different alternatives of suitable sites that can be used by policy makers in order to support conservation priorities while addressing management options. The approach provided provide a common reasoning language among different experts from different backgrounds while helped to identify spatially explicit conflictive areas. PMID:26597639

  8. Building a web-based tool to support clinical decisions in the control of Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Kun; Qiu, Fasheng; Chen, Guantao

    2013-12-20

    Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC) are the agents of two common, sexually transmitted diseases afflicting women in the United States (http://www.cdc.gov). We designed a novel web-based application that offers simple recommendations to help optimize medical outcomes with CT and GC prevention and control programs. This application takes population groups, prevalence rates, parameters for available screening assays and treatment regimens (costs, sensitivity, and specificity), as well as budget limits as inputs. Its output suggests optimal screening and treatment strategies for selected at-risk groups, commensurate with the clinic's budget allocation. Development of this tool illustrates how a clinical informatics application based on rigorous mathematics might have a significant impact on real-world clinical issues. PMID:24564848

  9. Modelling of control options for an outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in egg production: a decision support tool.

    PubMed

    Bennett, R M; McClement, I; McFarlane, I D; Parker, C D

    2013-12-01

    Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a bacterium that causes respiratory disease in chickens, leading to reduced egg production. A dynamic simulation model was developed that can be used to assess the costs and benefits of control using antimicrobials or vaccination in caged or free range systems. The intended users are veterinarians and egg producers. A user interface is provided for input of flock specific parameters. The economic consequence of an MG outbreak is expressed as a reduction in expected egg output. The model predicts that either vaccination or microbial treatment can approximately halve potential losses from MG in some circumstances. Sensitivity analysis is used to test assumptions about infection rate and timing of an outbreak. Feedback from veterinarians points to the value of the model as a discussion tool with producers. PMID:24206630

  10. The predictive accuracy of PREDICT: a personalized decision-making tool for Southeast Asian women with breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Wong, Hoong-Seam; Subramaniam, Shridevi; Alias, Zarifah; Taib, Nur Aishah; Ho, Gwo-Fuang; Ng, Char-Hong; Yip, Cheng-Har; Verkooijen, Helena M; Hartman, Mikael; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala

    2015-02-01

    Web-based prognostication tools may provide a simple and economically feasible option to aid prognostication and selection of chemotherapy in early breast cancers. We validated PREDICT, a free online breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit tool, in a resource-limited setting. All 1480 patients who underwent complete surgical treatment for stages I to III breast cancer from 1998 to 2006 were identified from the prospective breast cancer registry of University Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Calibration was evaluated by comparing the model-predicted overall survival (OS) with patients' actual OS. Model discrimination was tested using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Median age at diagnosis was 50 years. The median tumor size at presentation was 3 cm and 54% of patients had lymph node-negative disease. About 55% of women had estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. Overall, the model-predicted 5 and 10-year OS was 86.3% and 77.5%, respectively, whereas the observed 5 and 10-year OS was 87.6% (difference: -1.3%) and 74.2% (difference: 3.3%), respectively; P values for goodness-of-fit test were 0.18 and 0.12, respectively. The program was accurate in most subgroups of patients, but significantly overestimated survival in patients aged <40 years, and in those receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy. PREDICT performed well in terms of discrimination; areas under ROC curve were 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74-0.81) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.78) for 5 and 10-year OS, respectively. Based on its accurate performance in this study, PREDICT may be clinically useful in prognosticating women with breast cancer and personalizing breast cancer treatment in resource-limited settings. PMID:25715267

  11. Risk based management of piping systems

    SciTech Connect

    Conley, M.J.; Aller, J.E.; Tallin, A.; Weber, B.J.

    1996-07-01

    The API Piping Inspection Code is the first such Code to require classification of piping based on the consequences of failure, and to use this classification to influence inspection activity. Since this Code was published, progress has been made in the development of tools to improve on this approach by determining not only the consequences of failure, but also the likelihood of failure. ``Risk`` is defined as the product of the consequence and the likelihood. Measuring risk provides the means to formally manage risk by matching the inspection effort (costs) to the benefits of reduced risk. Using such a cost/benefit analysis allows the optimization of inspection budgets while meeting societal demands for reduction of the risk associated with process plant piping. This paper presents an overview of the tools developed to measure risk, and the methods to determine the effects of past and future inspections on the level of risk. The methodology is being developed as an industry-sponsored project under the direction of an API committee. The intent is to develop an API Recommended Practice that will be linked to In-Service Inspection Standards and the emerging Fitness for Service procedures. Actual studies using a similar approach have shown that a very high percentage of the risk due to piping in an operating facility is associated with relatively few pieces of piping. This permits inspection efforts to be focused on those piping systems that will result in the greatest risk reduction.

  12. Assessing the Hydrologic Performance of the EPA's Nonpoint Source Water Quality Assessment Decision Support Tool Using North American Land Data Assimilation System (Products)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S.; Ni-Meister, W.; Toll, D.; Nigro, J.; Guiterrez-Magness, A.; Engman, T.

    2010-01-01

    The accuracy of streamflow predictions in the EPA's BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources) decision support tool is affected by the sparse meteorological data contained in BASINS. The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data with high spatial and temporal resolutions provide an alternative to the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)'s station data. This study assessed the improvement of streamflow prediction of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model contained within BASINS using the NLDAS 118 degree hourly precipitation and evapotranspiration estimates in seven watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay region. Our results demonstrated consistent improvements of daily streamflow predictions in five of the seven watersheds when NLDAS precipitation and evapotranspiration data was incorporated into BASINS. The improvement of using the NLDAS data is significant when watershed's meteorological station is either far away or not in a similar climatic region. When the station is nearby, using the NLDAS data produces similar results. The correlation coefficients of the analyses using the NLDAS data were greater than 0.8, the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) model fit efficiency greater than 0.6, and the error in the water balance was less than 5%. Our analyses also showed that the streamflow improvements were mainly contributed by the NLDAS's precipitation data and that the improvement from using NLDAS's evapotranspiration data was not significant; partially due to the constraints of current BASINS-HSPF settings. However, NLDAS's evapotranspiration data did improve the baseflow prediction. This study demonstrates the NLDAS data has the potential to improve stream flow predictions, thus aid the water quality assessment in the EPA nonpoint water quality assessment decision tool.

  13. Usability and Feasibility of a Tablet-Based Decision-Support and Integrated Record-Keeping (DESIRE) Tool in the Nurse Management of Hypertension in Rural Western Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Vedanthan, Rajesh; Blank, Evan; Tuikong, Nelly; Kamano, Jemima; Misoi, Lawrence; Tulienge, Deborah; Hutchinson, Claire; Ascheim, Deborah D.; Kimaiyo, Sylvester; Fuster, Valentin; Were, Martin C.

    2015-01-01

    Background Mobile health (mHealth) applications have recently proliferated, especially in low- and middle-income countries, complementing task-redistribution strategies with clinical decision support. Relatively few studies address usability and feasibility issues that may impact success or failure of implementation, and few have been conducted for non-communicable diseases such as hypertension. Objective To conduct iterative usability and feasibility testing of a tablet-based Decision Support and Integrated Record-keeping (DESIRE) tool, a technology intended to assist rural clinicians taking care of hypertension patients at the community level in a resource-limited setting in western Kenya. Methods Usability testing consisted of “think aloud” exercises and “mock patient encounters” with five nurses, as well as one focus group discussion. Feasibility testing consisted of semi-structured interviews of five nurses and two members of the implementation team, and one focus group discussion with nurses. Content analysis was performed using both deductive codes and significant inductive codes. Critical incidents were identified and ranked according to severity. A cause-of-error analysis was used to develop corresponding design change suggestions. Results Fifty-seven critical incidents were identified in usability testing, 21 of which were unique. The cause-of-error analysis yielded 23 design change suggestions. Feasibility themes included barriers to implementation along both human and technical axes, facilitators to implementation, provider issues, patient issues and feature requests. Conclusions This participatory, iterative human-centered design process revealed previously unaddressed usability and feasibility issues affecting the implementation of the DESIRE tool in western Kenya. In addition to well-known technical issues, we highlight the importance of human factors that can impact implementation of mHealth interventions. PMID:25612791

  14. Assessing the vulnerability of human and biological communities to changing ecosystem services using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Labiosa, William B.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we describe an application of a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support web tool that models and evaluates relative changes in ecosystem services to policy and land management decisions. The Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio (SCWEPM) was designed to provide credible forecasts of responses to ecosystem drivers and stressors and to illustrate the role of land use decisions on spatial and temporal distributions of ecosystem services within a binational (U.S. and Mexico) watershed. We present two SCWEPM sub-models that when analyzed together address bidirectional relationships between social and ecological vulnerability and ecosystem services. The first model employs the Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), which assesses community vulnerability using information from U.S. and Mexico censuses on education, access to resources, migratory status, housing situation, and number of dependents. The second, relating land cover change to biodiversity (provisioning services), models changes in the distribution of terrestrial vertebrate habitat based on multitemporal vegetation and land cover maps, wildlife habitat relationships, and changes in land use/land cover patterns. When assessed concurrently, the models exposed some unexpected relationships between vulnerable communities and ecosystem services provisioning. For instance, the most species-rich habitat type in the watershed, Desert Riparian Forest, increased over time in areas occupied by the most vulnerable populations and declined in areas with less vulnerable populations. This type of information can be used to identify ecological conservation and restoration targets that enhance the livelihoods of people in vulnerable communities and promote biodiversity and ecosystem health.

  15. How Good is Our Best Guess? Clinical Application of the WHO FRAX Tool in Osteoporotic Fracture Risk Determination and Treatment Decisions.

    PubMed

    Hinz, Laura; Freiheit, Elizabeth; Kline, Gregory

    2016-08-01

    Historically, treatment decisions for osteoporosis were based on bone mineral density. However, many fractures occur in patients with T-scores outside the osteoporotic range, emphasizing the importance of multi-factorial risk assessments. The World Health Organization Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) predicts 10-year risk of osteoporotic fracture. We hypothesized that physicians' clinical estimates of osteoporotic fracture risk would differ significantly from that calculated by FRAX. Thus, treatment decisions would differ depending whether or not physicians used FRAX. A survey consisting of five clinical scenarios was administered to 76 endocrinologists, family physicians, internists, and internal medicine residents. They were asked to estimate the osteoporotic fracture risk and decide whether they would offer preventative treatment. Their estimates were compared to the risk predicted by FRAX and national treatment threshold guidelines. The primary outcome was the difference between the participant's estimate and the FRAX-based estimate of the 10-year risk of osteoporotic fracture for each scenario. In each scenario, physicians statistically significantly over-estimated fracture risk compared to that predicted by FRAX. Estimates for hip fracture risk were 2-4 times higher than FRAX estimates. The major osteoporotic fracture risk at which participants would offer treatment varied with physician group, with endocrinologists, family physicians, and residents requiring a 10-20 % 10-year risk, while internal medicine physician thresholds ranged from 2 to 20 %. Physicians greatly over-estimated the risk of hip fracture based on clinical information. FRAX is necessary to accurately quantify risk, but because physicians varied in the level of risk required before they would offer treatment, uniform approaches to risk estimation may still not result in uniform clinical treatment decisions. PMID:27038319

  16. From drought indicators to impacts: developing improved tools for monitoring and early warning with decision-makers in mind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannaford, Jamie; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia; Tanguy, Maliko; Laize, Cedric; Bachmair, Sophie; Tijdeman, Erik; Stahl, Kerstin; Collins, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    of M&EW and future aspirations. Different stakeholders clearly have different goals for M&EW, but there are a number of common themes, including a desire to better understand the links between the outputs of large-scale M&EW systems (rainfall, river flow, etc), localised triggers used by decision-makers during drought episodes, and actual impacts of drought. Secondly, we present analyses designed to test the utility of a wide range of drought indicators for their use in UK applications. We demonstrate the suitability of standardised indicators (like the SPI) for use in the UK, addressing the suitability of statistical distributions and using these indicators for drought severity quantification and for understanding propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought; all of which are currently poorly understood aspects that are vital for future monitoring. We then address the extent to which these indicators can be used to predict drought impacts, focusing on several sectors (water supply, agriculture and ecosystems). These analyses test which indicators perform best at predicting drought impacts, and seek to identify indicator thresholds that trigger impact occurrence. Unsurprisingly, we found that no single indicator best predicts impacts, and results are domain, sector and season specific. However, we reveal important linkages between indicators and impacts that could enhance the design and delivery of monitoring and forecasting information and its uptake by decision-makers concerned with drought.

  17. Application of the risk-based strategy to the Hanford tank waste organic-nitrate safety issue

    SciTech Connect

    Hunter, V.L.; Colson, S.D.; Ferryman, T.; Gephart, R.E.; Heasler, P.; Scheele, R.D.

    1997-12-01

    This report describes the results from application of the Risk-Based Decision Management Approach for Justifying Characterization of Hanford Tank Waste to the organic-nitrate safety issue in Hanford single-shell tanks (SSTs). Existing chemical and physical models were used, taking advantage of the most current (mid-1997) sampling and analysis data. The purpose of this study is to make specific recommendations for planning characterization to help ensure the safety of each SST as it relates to the organic-nitrate safety issue. An additional objective is to demonstrate the viability of the Risk-Based Strategy for addressing Hanford tank waste safety issues.

  18. Application of the Liver Maximum Function Capacity Test in Acute Liver Failure: A Helpful Tool for Decision-Making in Liver Transplantation?

    PubMed Central

    Vondran, Florian Wolfgang Rudolf; Schumacher, Carsten; Johanning, Kai; Hartleben, Björn; Knitsch, Wolfgang; Wiesner, Olaf; Jaeckel, Elmar; Manns, Michael Peter; Klempnauer, Juergen; Bektas, Hueseyin; Lehner, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Background. Despite aggressive intensive medical management acute liver failure (ALF) may require high-urgency liver transplantation (LTx). Available prognostic scores do not apply for all patients; reliable tools to identify individuals in need of LTx are highly required. The liver maximum function capacity test (LiMAx) might represent an appropriate option. Referring to a case of ALF after Amanita phalloides-intoxication the potential of the LiMAx-test in this setting is discussed. Presentation of Case. LiMAx was performed in a 27-year-old patient prior to and after high-urgency LTx. In accordance with clinical appearance of hepatic encephalopathy, coagulopathy, and acute kidney failure, the LiMAx-test constituted a fulminant course of ALF with hardly any detectable metabolic activity. Following LTx with a marginal donor organ (95% hepatosteatosis), uptake of liver function was demonstrated by postoperative increase of the LiMAx-value. The patient was discharged from hospital on postoperative day 26. Discussion. ALF often is associated with a critical state of the patient that requires almost immediate decision-making regarding further therapy. Application of a noninvasive liver function test might help to determine the prognosis of ALF and support decision-making for or against LTx as well as acceptance of a critical donor organ in case of a critically ill patient. PMID:27274881

  19. Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

    PubMed

    Porse, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering. PMID:25500464

  20. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.; Steeves, Peter A.; Brandt, Sara L.; Weiskel, Peter K.; Garabedian, Stephen P.

    2010-01-01

    Federal, State and local water-resource managers require a variety of data and modeling tools to better understand water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a statewide, interactive decision-support tool to meet this need. The decision-support tool, referred to as the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) provides screening-level estimates of the sustainable yield of a basin, defined as the difference between the unregulated streamflow and some user-specified quantity of water that must remain in the stream to support such functions as recreational activities or aquatic habitat. The MA SYE tool was designed, in part, because the quantity of surface water available in a basin is a time-varying quantity subject to competing demands for water. To compute sustainable yield, the MA SYE tool estimates a daily time series of unregulated, daily mean streamflow for a 44-year period of record spanning October 1, 1960, through September 30, 2004. Selected streamflow quantiles from an unregulated, daily flow-duration curve are estimated by solving six regression equations that are a function of physical and climate basin characteristics at an ungaged site on a stream of interest. Streamflow is then interpolated between the estimated quantiles to obtain a continuous daily flow-duration curve. A time series of unregulated daily streamflow subsequently is created by transferring the timing of the daily streamflow at a reference streamgage to the ungaged site by equating exceedence probabilities of contemporaneous flow at the two locations. One of 66 reference streamgages is selected by kriging, a geostatistical method, which is used to map the spatial relation among correlations between the time series of the logarithm of daily streamflows at each reference streamgage and the ungaged site. Estimated unregulated, daily mean streamflows show good agreement with observed

  1. Risk-Based Comparison of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we describe an integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodological framework and a decision-support tool suite for implementing systematic comparisons of competing carbon capture technologies. Culminating from a collaborative effort among national laboratories under the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), the risk assessment framework and the decision-support tool suite encapsulate three interconnected probabilistic modeling and simulation components. The technology readiness level (TRL) assessment component identifies specific scientific and engineering targets required by each readiness level and applies probabilistic estimation techniques to calculate the likelihood of graded as well as nonlinear advancement in technology maturity. The technical risk assessment component focuses on identifying and quantifying risk contributors, especially stochastic distributions for significant risk contributors, performing scenario-based risk analysis, and integrating with carbon capture process model simulations and optimization. The financial risk component estimates the long-term return on investment based on energy retail pricing, production cost, operating and power replacement cost, plan construction and retrofit expenses, and potential tax relief, expressed probabilistically as the net present value distributions over various forecast horizons.

  2. Passenger Rail Security, Planning, and Resilience: Application of Network, Plume, and Economic Simulation Models as Decision Support Tools

    PubMed Central

    Greenberg, Michael; Lioy, Paul; Ozbas, Birnur; Mantell, Nancy; Isukapalli, Sastry; Lahr, Michael; Altiok, Tayfur; Bober, Joseph; Lacy, Clifton; Lowrie, Karen; Mayer, Henry; Rovito, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    We built three simulation models that can assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail-centered hazard events that could lead to serious consequences for rail-centered networks and their surrounding regions. Our key objective is to provide these models to users who, through planning with these models, can prevent events or more effectively react to them. The first of the three models is an industrial systems simulation tool that closely replicates rail passenger traffic flows between New York Penn Station and Trenton, New Jersey. Second, we built and used a line source plume model to trace chemical plumes released by a slow-moving freight train that could impact rail passengers, as well as people in surrounding areas. Third, we crafted an economic simulation model that estimates the regional economic consequences of a variety of rail-related hazard events through the year 2020. Each model can work independently of the others. However, used together they help provide a coherent story about what could happen and set the stage for planning that should make rail-centered transport systems more resistant and resilient to hazard events. We highlight the limitations and opportunities presented by using these models individually or in sequence. PMID:23718133

  3. A decision-making tool to determine economic feasibility and break-even prices for artisan cheese operations.

    PubMed

    Durham, Catherine A; Bouma, Andrea; Meunier-Goddik, Lisbeth

    2015-12-01

    Artisan cheese makers lack access to valid economic data to help them evaluate business opportunities and make important business decisions such as determining cheese pricing structure. The objective of this study was to utilize an economic model to evaluate the net present value (NPV), internal rate of return, and payback period for artisan cheese production at different annual production volumes. The model was also used to determine the minimum retail price necessary to ensure positive NPV for 5 different cheese types produced at 4 different production volumes. Milk type, cheese yield, and aging time all affected variable costs. However, aged cheeses required additional investment for aging space (which needs to be larger for longer aging times), as did lower yield cheeses (by requiring larger-volume equipment for pasteurization and milk handling). As the volume of milk required increased, switching from vat pasteurization to high-temperature, short-time pasteurization was necessary for low-yield cheeses before being required for high-yield cheeses, which causes an additional increase in investment costs. Because of these differences, high-moisture, fresh cow milk cheeses can be sold for about half the price of hard, aged goat milk cheeses at the largest production volume or for about two-thirds the price at the lowest production volume examined. For example, for the given model assumptions, at an annual production of 13,608kg of cheese (30,000 lb), a fresh cow milk mozzarella should be sold at a minimum retail price of $27.29/kg ($12.38/lb), whereas a goat milk Gouda needs a minimum retail price of $49.54/kg ($22.47/lb). Artisan cheese makers should carefully evaluate annual production volumes. Although larger production volumes decrease average fixed cost and improve production efficiency, production can reach volumes where it becomes necessary to sell through distributors. Because distributors might pay as little as 35% of retail price, the retail price needs

  4. Accounting for failure: risk-based regulation and the problems of ensuring healthcare quality in the NHS

    PubMed Central

    Beaussier, Anne-Laure; Demeritt, David; Griffiths, Alex; Rothstein, Henry

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we examine why risk-based policy instruments have failed to improve the proportionality, effectiveness, and legitimacy of healthcare quality regulation in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Rather than trying to prevent all possible harms, risk-based approaches promise to rationalise and manage the inevitable limits of what regulation can hope to achieve by focusing regulatory standard-setting and enforcement activity on the highest priority risks, as determined through formal assessments of their probability and consequences. As such, risk-based approaches have been enthusiastically adopted by healthcare quality regulators over the last decade. However, by drawing on historical policy analysis and in-depth interviews with 15 high-level UK informants in 2013–2015, we identify a series of practical problems in using risk-based policy instruments for defining, assessing, and ensuring compliance with healthcare quality standards. Based on our analysis, we go on to consider why, despite a succession of failures, healthcare regulators remain committed to developing and using risk-based approaches. We conclude by identifying several preconditions for successful risk-based regulation: goals must be clear and trade-offs between them amenable to agreement; regulators must be able to reliably assess the probability and consequences of adverse outcomes; regulators must have a range of enforcement tools that can be deployed in proportion to risk; and there must be political tolerance for adverse outcomes. PMID:27499677

  5. Predicting severity of pathological scarring due to burn injuries: a clinical decision making tool using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Berchialla, Paola; Gangemi, Ezio Nicola; Foltran, Francesca; Haxhiaj, Arber; Buja, Alessandra; Lazzarato, Fulvio; Stella, Maurizio; Gregori, Dario

    2014-06-01

    It is important for clinicians to understand which are the clinical signs, the patient characteristics and the procedures that are related with the occurrence of hypertrophic burn scars in order to carry out a possible prognostic assessment. Providing clinicians with an easy-to- use tool for predicting the risk of pathological scars. A total of 703 patients with 2440 anatomical burn sites who were admitted to the Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Burn Center of the Traumatological Hospital in Torino between January 1994 and May 2006 were included in the analysis. A Bayesian network (BN) model was implemented. The probability of developing a hypertrophic scar was evaluated on a number of scenarios. The error rate of the BN model was assessed internally and it was equal to 24·83%. While classical statistical method as logistic models can infer only which variables are related to the final outcome, the BN approach displays a set of relationships between the final outcome (scar type) and the explanatory covariates (patient's age and gender, burn surface area, full-thickness burn surface area, burn anatomical area and wound-healing time; burn treatment options such as advanced dressings, type of surgical approach, number of surgical procedures, type of skin graft, excision and coverage timing). A web-based interface to handle the BN model was developed on the website www.pubchild.org (burns header). Clinicians who registered at the website could submit their data in order to get from the BN model the predicted probability of observing a pathological scar type. PMID:22958613

  6. Facilitating climate change assessments by providing easy access to data and decision-support tools on-line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachelet, D. M.

    2012-12-01

    Public land managers are under increasing pressure to consider the potential impacts of climate change but they often lack access to the necessary scientific information and the support to interpret projections. Over 27% of the United States land area are designated as protected areas (e.g. National Parks and Wilderness Areas) including 76,900,000 ha of National Forests areas for which management plans need to be revised to prepare for climate change. Projections of warmer drier conditions raise concerns about extended summer drought, increased fire risks and potential pest/insect outbreaks threatening the carbon sequestration potential of the region as well as late summer water availability. Downscaled climate projections, soil vulnerability indices, and simulated climate change impacts on vegetation cover, fire frequency, carbon stocks, as well as species range shifts, have been uploaded in databasin.org to provide easy access to documented information that can be displayed, shared, and freely manipulated on line. We have uploaded NARCCAP scenarios and provided animations and time series display to look at regional and temporal trends in climate projections. We have uploaded simulation results of vegetation shifts from the global scale to local national parks and shared results with concerned managers. We have used combinations of vegetation models and niche models to evaluate wildlife resilience to future conditions. We have designed fuzzy logic models for ecological assessment projects and made them available on the Data Basin web site. We describe how we have used all this information to quantify climate change vulnerability for a variety of ecosystems, developing new web tools to provide comparative summaries of the various types of spatial and temporal data available for different regions.

  7. A pilot study for development of a novel tool for clinical decision making to identify fallers among ophthalmic patients

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Falls in the elderly is a major problem. Although falls have a multifactorial etiology, a commonly cited cause of falls in older people is poor vision. This study proposes a method to discriminate fallers and non-fallers among ophthalmic patients, based on data-mining algorithms applied to health and socio-demographic information. Methods A group of 150 subjects aged 55 years and older, recruited at the Eye Clinic of the Second University of Naples, underwent a baseline ophthalmic examination and a standardized questionnaire, including lifestyles, general health, social engagement and eyesight problems. A subject who reported at least one fall within one year was considered as faller, otherwise as non-faller. Different tree-based data-mining algorithms (i.e., C4.5, Adaboost and Random Forest) were used to develop automatic classifiers and their performances were evaluated by assessing the receiver-operator characteristics curve estimated with the 10-fold-crossvalidation approach. Results The best predic