Sample records for risk-based decision tool

  1. Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steve; Moran, Terrence

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.

  2. Communicating risk of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer with an interactive decision support tool.

    PubMed

    Rupert, Douglas J; Squiers, Linda B; Renaud, Jeanette M; Whitehead, Nedra S; Osborn, Roger J; Furberg, Robert D; Squire, Claudia M; Tzeng, Janice P

    2013-08-01

    Women with hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome (HBOC) face a higher risk of earlier, more aggressive cancer. Because of HBOC's rarity, screening is recommended only for women with strong cancer family histories. However, most patients do not have accurate history available and struggle to understand genetic concepts. Cancer in the Family, an online clinical decision support tool, calculated women's HBOC risk and promoted shared patient-provider decisions about screening. A pilot evaluation (n=9 providers, n=48 patients) assessed the tool's impact on knowledge, attitudes, and screening decisions. Patients used the tool before wellness exams and completed three surveys. Providers accessed the tool during exams, completed exam checklists, and completed four surveys. Patients entered complete family histories (67%), calculated personal risk (96%), and shared risk printouts with providers (65%). HBOC knowledge increased dramatically for patients and providers, and many patients (75%) perceived tool results as valid. The tool prompted patient-provider discussions about HBOC risk and cancer family history (88%). The tool was effective in increasing knowledge, collecting family history, and sparking patient-provider discussions about HBOC screening. Interactive tools can effectively communicate personalized risk and promote shared decisions, but they are not a substitute for patient-provider discussions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A web-based personalized risk communication and decision-making tool for women with dense breasts: Design and methods of a randomized controlled trial within an integrated health care system.

    PubMed

    Knerr, Sarah; Wernli, Karen J; Leppig, Kathleen; Ehrlich, Kelly; Graham, Amanda L; Farrell, David; Evans, Chalanda; Luta, George; Schwartz, Marc D; O'Neill, Suzanne C

    2017-05-01

    Mammographic breast density is one of the strongest risk factors for breast cancer after age and family history. Mandatory breast density disclosure policies are increasing nationally without clear guidance on how to communicate density status to women. Coupling density disclosure with personalized risk counseling and decision support through a web-based tool may be an effective way to allow women to make informed, values-consistent risk management decisions without increasing distress. This paper describes the design and methods of Engaged, a prospective, randomized controlled trial examining the effect of online personalized risk counseling and decision support on risk management decisions in women with dense breasts and increased breast cancer risk. The trial is embedded in a large integrated health care system in the Pacific Northwest. A total of 1250 female health plan members aged 40-69 with a recent negative screening mammogram who are at increased risk for interval cancer based on their 5-year breast cancer risk and BI-RADS® breast density will be randomly assigned to access either a personalized web-based counseling and decision support tool or standard educational content. Primary outcomes will be assessed using electronic health record data (i.e., chemoprevention and breast MRI utilization) and telephone surveys (i.e., distress) at baseline, six weeks, and twelve months. Engaged will provide evidence about whether a web-based personalized risk counseling and decision support tool is an effective method for communicating with women about breast density and risk management. An effective intervention could be disseminated with minimal clinical burden to align with density disclosure mandates. Clinical Trials Registration Number:NCT03029286. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Application of a web-based Decision Support System in risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2013-04-01

    Increasingly, risk information is widely available with the help of advanced technologies such as earth observation satellites, global positioning technologies, coupled with hazard modeling and analysis, and geographical information systems (GIS). Even though it exists, no effort will be put into action if it is not properly presented to the decision makers. These information need to be communicated clearly and show its usefulness so that people can make better informed decision. Therefore, communicating available risk information has become an important challenge and decision support systems have been one of the significant approaches which can help not only in presenting risk information to the decision makers but also in making efficient decisions while reducing human resources and time needed. In this study, the conceptual framework of an internet-based decision support system is presented to highlight its importance role in risk management framework and how it can be applied in case study areas chosen. The main purpose of the proposed system is to facilitate the available risk information in risk reduction by taking into account of the changes in climate, land use and socio-economic along with the risk scenarios. It allows the users to formulate, compare and select risk reduction scenarios (mainly for floods and landslides) through an enhanced participatory platform with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the decision making process. It is based on the three-tier (client-server) architecture which integrates web-GIS plus DSS functionalities together with cost benefit analysis and other supporting tools. Embedding web-GIS provides its end users to make better planning and informed decisions referenced to a geographical location, which is the one of the essential factors in disaster risk reduction programs. Different risk reduction measures of a specific area (local scale) will be evaluated using this web-GIS tool, available risk scenarios obtained from

  5. The Integrated Medical Model - A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles G.; Saile, Lynn; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2010-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight.

  6. A GIS-based generic real-time risk assessment framework and decision tools for chemical spills in the river basin.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Lung, Wu-seng; Guo, Liang; Li, Mei

    2012-08-15

    This paper presents a generic framework and decision tools of real-time risk assessment on Emergency Environmental Decision Support System for response to chemical spills in river basin. The generic "4-step-3-model" framework is able to delineate the warning area and the impact on vulnerable receptors considering four types of hazards referring to functional area, societal impact, and human health and ecology system. Decision tools including the stand-alone system and software components were implemented on GIS platform. A detailed case study on the Songhua River nitrobenzene spill illustrated the goodness of the framework and tool Spill first responders and decision makers of catchment management will benefit from the rich, visual and dynamic hazard information output from the software. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    aspects in the decision making process on adaptation measures has been developed and is currently being tested in municipalities including central Gothenburg, and smaller municipalities in Sweden and Norway. The tool is a matrix based decision support tool (MDST) aiming for encoring discussion among experts and stakeholders. The first steps in the decision process include identification, inventory and assessment of the potential impacts of climate change such as landslides (or other events or actions). These steps are also included in general technical/physical risk and vulnerability analyses such as the risk analysis of the Göta älv valley. The MDST also includes further subsequent steps of the risk management process, and the full sequence of the MDST includes risk identification, risk specification, risk assessment, identification of measures, impact analysis of measures including an assessment of environmental, social and economical costs and benefits, a weight process and visualisation of the result. Here the MDST with some examples from the methodology for the Göta river valley analysis and the risk mitigation analysis from Sweden and Norway will be presented.

  8. An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

    2012-04-01

    Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact

  9. Risk Reduction and Training using Simulation Based Tools - 12180

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hall, Irin P.

    2012-07-01

    Process Modeling and Simulation (M and S) has been used for many years in manufacturing and similar domains, as part of an industrial engineer's tool box. Traditionally, however, this technique has been employed in small, isolated projects where models were created from scratch, often making it time and cost prohibitive. Newport News Shipbuilding (NNS) has recognized the value of this predictive technique and what it offers in terms of risk reduction, cost avoidance and on-schedule performance of highly complex work. To facilitate implementation, NNS has been maturing a process and the software to rapidly deploy and reuse M and Smore » based decision support tools in a variety of environments. Some examples of successful applications by NNS of this technique in the nuclear domain are a reactor refueling simulation based tool, a fuel handling facility simulation based tool and a tool for dynamic radiation exposure tracking. The next generation of M and S applications include expanding simulation based tools into immersive and interactive training. The applications discussed here take a tool box approach to creating simulation based decision support tools for maximum utility and return on investment. This approach involves creating a collection of simulation tools that can be used individually or integrated together for a larger application. The refueling simulation integrates with the fuel handling facility simulation to understand every aspect and dependency of the fuel handling evolutions. This approach translates nicely to other complex domains where real system experimentation is not feasible, such as nuclear fuel lifecycle and waste management. Similar concepts can also be applied to different types of simulation techniques. For example, a process simulation of liquid waste operations may be useful to streamline and plan operations, while a chemical model of the liquid waste composition is an important tool for making decisions with respect to waste

  10. A review of decision support, risk communication and patient information tools for thrombolytic treatment in acute stroke: lessons for tool developers

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Tools to support clinical or patient decision-making in the treatment/management of a health condition are used in a range of clinical settings for numerous preference-sensitive healthcare decisions. Their impact in clinical practice is largely dependent on their quality across a range of domains. We critically analysed currently available tools to support decision making or patient understanding in the treatment of acute ischaemic stroke with intravenous thrombolysis, as an exemplar to provide clinicians/researchers with practical guidance on development, evaluation and implementation of such tools for other preference-sensitive treatment options/decisions in different clinical contexts. Methods Tools were identified from bibliographic databases, Internet searches and a survey of UK and North American stroke networks. Two reviewers critically analysed tools to establish: information on benefits/risks of thrombolysis included in tools, and the methods used to convey probabilistic information (verbal descriptors, numerical and graphical); adherence to guidance on presenting outcome probabilities (IPDASi probabilities items) and information content (Picker Institute Checklist); readability (Fog Index); and the extent that tools had comprehensive development processes. Results Nine tools of 26 identified included information on a full range of benefits/risks of thrombolysis. Verbal descriptors, frequencies and percentages were used to convey probabilistic information in 20, 19 and 18 tools respectively, whilst nine used graphical methods. Shortcomings in presentation of outcome probabilities (e.g. omitting outcomes without treatment) were identified. Patient information tools had an aggregate median Fog index score of 10. None of the tools had comprehensive development processes. Conclusions Tools to support decision making or patient understanding in the treatment of acute stroke with thrombolysis have been sub-optimally developed. Development of tools

  11. A Web-Based Tool to Support Data-Based Early Intervention Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buzhardt, Jay; Greenwood, Charles; Walker, Dale; Carta, Judith; Terry, Barbara; Garrett, Matthew

    2010-01-01

    Progress monitoring and data-based intervention decision making have become key components of providing evidence-based early childhood special education services. Unfortunately, there is a lack of tools to support early childhood service providers' decision-making efforts. The authors describe a Web-based system that guides service providers…

  12. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  13. Implementation of a scalable, web-based, automated clinical decision support risk-prediction tool for chronic kidney disease using C-CDA and application programming interfaces.

    PubMed

    Samal, Lipika; D'Amore, John D; Bates, David W; Wright, Adam

    2017-11-01

    Clinical decision support tools for risk prediction are readily available, but typically require workflow interruptions and manual data entry so are rarely used. Due to new data interoperability standards for electronic health records (EHRs), other options are available. As a clinical case study, we sought to build a scalable, web-based system that would automate calculation of kidney failure risk and display clinical decision support to users in primary care practices. We developed a single-page application, web server, database, and application programming interface to calculate and display kidney failure risk. Data were extracted from the EHR using the Consolidated Clinical Document Architecture interoperability standard for Continuity of Care Documents (CCDs). EHR users were presented with a noninterruptive alert on the patient's summary screen and a hyperlink to details and recommendations provided through a web application. Clinic schedules and CCDs were retrieved using existing application programming interfaces to the EHR, and we provided a clinical decision support hyperlink to the EHR as a service. We debugged a series of terminology and technical issues. The application was validated with data from 255 patients and subsequently deployed to 10 primary care clinics where, over the course of 1 year, 569 533 CCD documents were processed. We validated the use of interoperable documents and open-source components to develop a low-cost tool for automated clinical decision support. Since Consolidated Clinical Document Architecture-based data extraction extends to any certified EHR, this demonstrates a successful modular approach to clinical decision support. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

  14. A Decision Support Model and Tool to Assist Financial Decision-Making in Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhayat, Imtiaz; Manuguerra, Maurizio; Baldock, Clive

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model and tool is proposed to assist universities and other mission-based organisations to ascertain systematically the optimal portfolio of projects, in any year, meeting the organisations risk tolerances and available funds. The model and tool presented build on previous work on university operations and decision support systems…

  15. Decision-making tools in prostate cancer: from risk grouping to nomograms.

    PubMed

    Fontanella, Paolo; Benecchi, Luigi; Grasso, Angelica; Patel, Vipul; Albala, David; Abbou, Claude; Porpiglia, Francesco; Sandri, Marco; Rocco, Bernardo; Bianchi, Giampaolo

    2017-12-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common solid neoplasm and the second leading cause of cancer death in men. After the Partin tables were developed, a number of predictive and prognostic tools became available for risk stratification. These tools have allowed the urologist to better characterize this disease and lead to more confident treatment decisions for patients. The purpose of this study is to critically review the decision-making tools currently available to the urologist, from the moment when PCa is first diagnosed until patients experience metastatic progression and death. A systematic and critical analysis through Medline, EMBASE, Scopus and Web of Science databases was carried out in February 2016 as per the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. The search was conducted using the following key words: "prostate cancer," "prediction tools," "nomograms." Seventy-two studies were identified in the literature search. We summarized the results into six sections: Tools for prediction of life expectancy (before treatment), Tools for prediction of pathological stage (before treatment), Tools for prediction of survival and cancer-specific mortality (before/after treatment), Tools for prediction of biochemical recurrence (before/after treatment), Tools for prediction of metastatic progression (after treatment) and in the last section biomarkers and genomics. The management of PCa patients requires a tailored approach to deliver a truly personalized treatment. The currently available tools are of great help in helping the urologist in the decision-making process. These tests perform very well in high-grade and low-grade disease, while for intermediate-grade disease further research is needed. Newly discovered markers, genomic tests, and advances in imaging acquisition through mpMRI will help in instilling confidence that the appropriate treatments are being offered to patients with prostate cancer.

  16. A cloud based tool for knowledge exchange on local scale flood risk.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, M E; Mackay, E; Quinn, P F; Stutter, M; Beven, K J; MacLeod, C J A; Macklin, M G; Elkhatib, Y; Percy, B; Vitolo, C; Haygarth, P M

    2015-09-15

    There is an emerging and urgent need for new approaches for the management of environmental challenges such as flood hazard in the broad context of sustainability. This requires a new way of working which bridges disciplines and organisations, and that breaks down science-culture boundaries. With this, there is growing recognition that the appropriate involvement of local communities in catchment management decisions can result in multiple benefits. However, new tools are required to connect organisations and communities. The growth of cloud based technologies offers a novel way to facilitate this process of exchange of information in environmental science and management; however, stakeholders need to be engaged with as part of the development process from the beginning rather than being presented with a final product at the end. Here we present the development of a pilot Local Environmental Virtual Observatory Flooding Tool. The aim was to develop a cloud based learning platform for stakeholders, bringing together fragmented data, models and visualisation tools that will enable these stakeholders to make scientifically informed environmental management decisions at the local scale. It has been developed by engaging with different stakeholder groups in three catchment case studies in the UK and a panel of national experts in relevant topic areas. However, these case study catchments are typical of many northern latitude catchments. The tool was designed to communicate flood risk in locally impacted communities whilst engaging with landowners/farmers about the risk of runoff from the farmed landscape. It has been developed iteratively to reflect the needs, interests and capabilities of a wide range of stakeholders. The pilot tool combines cloud based services, local catchment datasets, a hydrological model and bespoke visualisation tools to explore real time hydrometric data and the impact of flood risk caused by future land use changes. The novel aspects of the

  17. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    PubMed

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  18. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

  19. The Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ines, A. V. M.; Han, E.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) during the past decades have brought great potential to improve agricultural climate risk managements associated with inter-annual climate variability. In spite of popular uses of crop simulation models in addressing climate risk problems, the models cannot readily take seasonal climate predictions issued in the format of tercile probabilities of most likely rainfall categories (i.e, below-, near- and above-normal). When a skillful SCF is linked with the crop simulation models, the informative climate information can be further translated into actionable agronomic terms and thus better support strategic and tactical decisions. In other words, crop modeling connected with a given SCF allows to simulate "what-if" scenarios with different crop choices or management practices and better inform the decision makers. In this paper, we present a decision support tool, called CAMDT (Climate Agriculture Modeling and Decision Tool), which seamlessly integrates probabilistic SCFs to DSSAT-CSM-Rice model to guide decision-makers in adopting appropriate crop and agricultural water management practices for given climatic conditions. The CAMDT has a functionality to disaggregate a probabilistic SCF into daily weather realizations (either a parametric or non-parametric disaggregation method) and to run DSSAT-CSM-Rice with the disaggregated weather realizations. The convenient graphical user-interface allows easy implementation of several "what-if" scenarios for non-technical users and visualize the results of the scenario runs. In addition, the CAMDT also translates crop model outputs to economic terms once the user provides expected crop price and cost. The CAMDT is a practical tool for real-world applications, specifically for agricultural climate risk management in the Bicol region, Philippines, having a great flexibility for being adapted to other crops or regions in the world. CAMDT GitHub: https://github.com/Agro-Climate/CAMDT

  20. A decision support tool to prioritize risk management options for contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Sorvari, Jaana; Seppälä, Jyri

    2010-03-15

    The decisions on risk management (RM) of contaminated sites in Finland have typically been driven by practical factors such as time and money. However, RM is a multifaceted task that generally involves several additional determinants, e.g. performance and environmental effects of remediation methods, psychological and social factors. Therefore, we adopted a multi-criteria decision analysis approach and developed a decision support tool (DST) that is viable in decision-making in such a complex situation. The basic components of the DST are based on the Dutch REC system. However, our DST is more case-specific and allows the consideration of the type, magnitude and scale of contamination, land use, environmental conditions and socio-cultural aspects (e.g. loss of cultural heritage, image aspects). The construction of the DST was started by structuring the decision problem using a value tree. Based on this work we adopted the Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) for data aggregation. The final DST was demonstrated by two model sites for which the RM alternatives and site-specific data were created on the basis of factual remediation projects and by interviewing experts. The demonstration of the DST was carried out in a workshop where representatives of different stakeholders were requested to rank and weight the decision criteria involved. To get information on the consistency of the ranking of the RM alternatives, we used different weighting techniques (ratio estimation and pair-wise weighting) and alternative ways to treat individual respondents' weights in calculating the preference scores for each RM alternative. These dissimilar approaches resulted in some differences in the preference order of the RM alternatives. The demonstration showed that attention has to be paid to the proper description of the site, the principles of the procedure and the decision criteria. Nevertheless, the procedure proved to enable efficient communication between different stakeholders

  1. Development of a tool to improve the quality of decision making in atrial fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Decision-making about appropriate therapy to reduce the stroke risk associated with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) involves the consideration of trade-offs among the benefits, risks, and inconveniences of different treatment options. The objective of this paper is to describe the development of a decision support tool for NVAF based on the provision of individualized risk estimates for stroke and bleeding and on preparing patients to communicate with their physicians about their values and potential treatment options. Methods We developed a tool based on the principles of the International Patient Decision Aids Standards. The tool focuses on the patient-physician dyad as the decision-making unit and emphasizes improving the interaction between the two. It is built on the recognition that the application of patient values to a specific treatment decision is complex and that the final treatment choice is best made through a process of patient-clinician communication. Results The tool provides education incorporating patients ' illness perceptions to explain the relationship between NVAF and stroke, and then presents individualized risk estimates, derived using separate risk calculators for stroke and bleeding over a clinically meaningful time period (5 years) associated with no treatment, aspirin, and warfarin. Sequelae of both stroke and bleeding outcomes are also described. Patients are encouraged to verbalize how they value the incremental risks and benefits associated with each option and write down specific concerns to address with their physician. A physician prompt to encourage patients to discuss their opinions is included as part of the decision support tool. In pilot testing with 11 participants (mean age 78 ± 9 years, 64% with ≤ high-school education), 8 (72%) rated ease of completion as "very easy," and 9 (81%) rated amount of information as "just right." Conclusions The risks and benefits of different treatment options for

  2. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

  3. A web-based decision support tool for prognosis simulation in multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Veloso, Mário

    2014-09-01

    A multiplicity of natural history studies of multiple sclerosis provides valuable knowledge of the disease progression but individualized prognosis remains elusive. A few decision support tools that assist the clinician in such task have emerged but have not received proper attention from clinicians and patients. The objective of the current work is to implement a web-based tool, conveying decision relevant prognostic scientific evidence, which will help clinicians discuss prognosis with individual patients. Data were extracted from a set of reference studies, especially those dealing with the natural history of multiple sclerosis. The web-based decision support tool for individualized prognosis simulation was implemented with NetLogo, a program environment suited for the development of complex adaptive systems. Its prototype has been launched online; it enables clinicians to predict both the likelihood of CIS to CDMS conversion, and the long-term prognosis of disability level and SPMS conversion, as well as assess and monitor the effects of treatment. More robust decision support tools, which convey scientific evidence and satisfy the needs of clinical practice by helping clinicians discuss prognosis expectations with individual patients, are required. The web-based simulation model herein introduced proposes to be a step forward toward this purpose. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Primary care physicians' perspectives on computer-based health risk assessment tools for chronic diseases: a mixed methods study.

    PubMed

    Voruganti, Teja R; O'Brien, Mary Ann; Straus, Sharon E; McLaughlin, John R; Grunfeld, Eva

    2015-09-24

    Health risk assessment tools compute an individual's risk of developing a disease. Routine use of such tools by primary care physicians (PCPs) is potentially useful in chronic disease prevention. We sought physicians' awareness and perceptions of the usefulness, usability and feasibility of performing assessments with computer-based risk assessment tools in primary care settings. Focus groups and usability testing with a computer-based risk assessment tool were conducted with PCPs from both university-affiliated and community-based practices. Analysis was derived from grounded theory methodology. PCPs (n = 30) were aware of several risk assessment tools although only select tools were used routinely. The decision to use a tool depended on how use impacted practice workflow and whether the tool had credibility. Participants felt that embedding tools in the electronic medical records (EMRs) system might allow for health information from the medical record to auto-populate into the tool. User comprehension of risk could also be improved with computer-based interfaces that present risk in different formats. In this study, PCPs chose to use certain tools more regularly because of usability and credibility. Despite there being differences in the particular tools a clinical practice used, there was general appreciation for the usefulness of tools for different clinical situations. Participants characterised particular features of an ideal tool, feeling strongly that embedding risk assessment tools in the EMR would maximise accessibility and use of the tool for chronic disease management. However, appropriate practice workflow integration and features that facilitate patient understanding at point-of-care are also essential.

  5. Intelligent ship traffic monitoring for oil spill prevention: risk based decision support building on AIS.

    PubMed

    Eide, Magnus S; Endresen, Oyvind; Brett, Per Olaf; Ervik, Jon Leon; Røang, Kjell

    2007-02-01

    The paper describes a model, which estimates the risk levels of individual crude oil tankers. The intended use of the model, which is ready for trial implementation at The Norwegian Coastal Administrations new Vardø VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) centre, is to facilitate the comparison of ships and to support a risk based decision on which ships to focus attention on. For a VTS operator, tasked with monitoring hundreds of ships, this is a valuable decision support tool. The model answers the question, "Which ships are likely to produce an oil spill accident, and how much is it likely to spill?".

  6. System and method for integrating hazard-based decision making tools and processes

    DOEpatents

    Hodgin, C Reed [Westminster, CO

    2012-03-20

    A system and method for inputting, analyzing, and disseminating information necessary for identified decision-makers to respond to emergency situations. This system and method provides consistency and integration among multiple groups, and may be used for both initial consequence-based decisions and follow-on consequence-based decisions. The system and method in a preferred embodiment also provides tools for accessing and manipulating information that are appropriate for each decision-maker, in order to achieve more reasoned and timely consequence-based decisions. The invention includes processes for designing and implementing a system or method for responding to emergency situations.

  7. Tools to Promote Shared Decision Making in Serious Illness: A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Austin, C Adrian; Mohottige, Dinushika; Sudore, Rebecca L; Smith, Alexander K; Hanson, Laura C

    2015-07-01

    Serious illness impairs function and threatens survival. Patients facing serious illness value shared decision making, yet few decision aids address the needs of this population. To perform a systematic review of evidence about decision aids and other exportable tools that promote shared decision making in serious illness, thereby (1) identifying tools relevant to the treatment decisions of seriously ill patients and their caregivers, (2) evaluating the quality of evidence for these tools, and (3) summarizing their effect on outcomes and accessibility for clinicians. We searched PubMed, CINAHL, and PsychInfo from January 1, 1995, through October 31, 2014, and identified additional studies from reference lists and other systematic reviews. Clinical trials with random or nonrandom controls were included if they tested print, video, or web-based tools for advance care planning (ACP) or decision aids for serious illness. We extracted data on the study population, design, results, and risk for bias using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. Each tool was evaluated for its effect on patient outcomes and accessibility. Seventeen randomized clinical trials tested decision tools in serious illness. Nearly all the trials were of moderate or high quality and showed that decision tools improve patient knowledge and awareness of treatment choices. The available tools address ACP, palliative care and goals of care communication, feeding options in dementia, lung transplant in cystic fibrosis, and truth telling in terminal cancer. Five randomized clinical trials provided further evidence that decision tools improve ACP documentation, clinical decisions, and treatment received. Clinicians can access and use evidence-based tools to engage seriously ill patients in shared decision making. This field of research is in an early stage; future research is needed to develop novel decision aids for other serious diagnoses and key

  8. Development of a shared decision-making tool to assist patients and clinicians with decisions on oral anticoagulant treatment for atrial fibrillation.

    PubMed

    Kaiser, Karen; Cheng, Wendy Y; Jensen, Sally; Clayman, Marla L; Thappa, Andrew; Schwiep, Frances; Chawla, Anita; Goldberger, Jeffrey J; Col, Nananda; Schein, Jeff

    2015-12-01

    Decision aids (DAs) are increasingly used to operationalize shared decision-making (SDM) but their development is not often described. Decisions about oral anticoagulants (OACs) for atrial fibrillation (AF) involve a trade-off between lowering stroke risk and increasing OAC-associated bleeding risk, and consideration of how treatment affects lifestyle. The benefits and risks of OACs hinge upon a patient's risk factors for stroke and bleeding and how they value these outcomes. We present the development of a DA about AF that estimates patients' risks for stroke and bleeding and assesses their preferences for outcomes. Based on a literature review and expert discussions, we identified stroke and major bleeding risk prediction models and embedded them into risk assessment modules. We identified the most important factors in choosing OAC treatment (warfarin used as the default reference OAC) through focus group discussions with AF patients who had used warfarin and clinician interviews. We then designed preference assessment and introductory modules accordingly. We integrated these modules into a prototype AF SDM tool and evaluated its usability through interviews. Our tool included four modules: (1) introduction to AF and OAC treatment risks and benefits; (2) stroke risk assessment; (3) bleeding risk assessment; and (4) preference assessment. Interactive risk calculators estimated patient-specific stroke and bleeding risks; graphics were developed to communicate these risks. After cognitive interviews, the content was improved. The final AF tool calculates patient-specific risks and benefits of OAC treatment and couples these estimates with patient preferences to improve clinical decision-making. The AF SDM tool may help patients choose whether OAC treatment is best for them and represents a patient-centered, integrative approach to educate patients on the benefits and risks of OAC treatment. Future research is needed to evaluate this tool in a real-world setting. The

  9. A decision support tool to determine cost-to-benefit of a family-centered in-home program for at-risk adolescents.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Fernando A; Araz, Ozgur M; Thompson, Ronald W; Ringle, Jay L; Mason, W Alex; Stimpson, Jim P

    2016-06-01

    Family-centered program research has demonstrated its effectiveness in improving adolescent outcomes. However, given current fiscal constraints faced by governmental agencies, a recent report from the Institute of Medicine and National Research Council highlighted the need for cost-benefit analyses to inform decision making by policymakers. Furthermore, performance management tools such as balanced scorecards and dashboards do not generally include cost-benefit analyses. In this paper, we describe the development of an Excel-based decision support tool that can be used to evaluate a selected family-based program for at-risk children and adolescents relative to a comparison program or the status quo. This tool incorporates the use of an efficient, user-friendly interface with results provided in concise tabular and graphical formats that may be interpreted without need for substantial training in economic evaluation. To illustrate, we present an application of this tool to evaluate use of Boys Town's In-Home Family Services (IHFS) relative to detention and out-of-home placement in New York City. Use of the decision support tool can help mitigate the need for programs to contract experts in economic evaluation, especially when there are financial or time constraints. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Distance-Based and Distributed Learning: A Decision Tool for Education Leaders.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGraw, Tammy M.; Ross, John D.

    This decision tool presents a progression of data collection and decision-making strategies that can increase the effectiveness of distance-based or distributed learning instruction. A narrative and flow chart cover the following steps: (1) basic assumptions, including purpose of instruction, market scan, and financial resources; (2) needs…

  11. Risk Aversion is Associated with Decision Making among Community-Based Older Persons

    PubMed Central

    Boyle, Patricia A.; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S.; Bennett, David A.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Risk aversion is associated with many important decisions among younger and middle aged persons, but the association of risk aversion with decision making has not been well studied among older persons who face some of the most significant decisions of their lives. Method: Using data from 606 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the association of risk aversion with decision making. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $20 to $300 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. Decision making was measured using a 12 item version of the Decision Making Competence Assessment Tool. Findings: In a linear regression model adjusted for age, sex, education, and income, greater risk aversion was associated with poorer decision making [estimate = −1.03, standard error (SE) = 0.35, p = 0.003]. Subsequent analyses showed that the association of risk aversion with decision making persisted after adjustment for global cognitive function as well as executive and non-executive cognitive abilities. Conclusion: Similar to findings from studies of younger persons, risk aversion is associated with poorer decision making among older persons who face a myriad of complex and influential decisions. PMID:22754545

  12. Risk Aversion is Associated with Decision Making among Community-Based Older Persons.

    PubMed

    Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

    2012-01-01

    Risk aversion is associated with many important decisions among younger and middle aged persons, but the association of risk aversion with decision making has not been well studied among older persons who face some of the most significant decisions of their lives. Using data from 606 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the association of risk aversion with decision making. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $20 to $300 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. Decision making was measured using a 12 item version of the Decision Making Competence Assessment Tool. In a linear regression model adjusted for age, sex, education, and income, greater risk aversion was associated with poorer decision making [estimate = -1.03, standard error (SE) = 0.35, p = 0.003]. Subsequent analyses showed that the association of risk aversion with decision making persisted after adjustment for global cognitive function as well as executive and non-executive cognitive abilities. Similar to findings from studies of younger persons, risk aversion is associated with poorer decision making among older persons who face a myriad of complex and influential decisions.

  13. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  14. Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool for Disease (CAMDT-Disease) for seasonal climate forecast-based crop disease risk management in agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, K. H.; Lee, S.; Han, E.; Ines, A. V. M.

    2017-12-01

    Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) is a decision support system (DSS) tool that aims to facilitate translations of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) to crop responses such as yield and water stress. Since CAMDT is a software framework connecting different models and algorithms with SCF information, it can be easily customized for different types of agriculture models. In this study, we replaced the DSSAT-CSM-Rice model originally incorporated in CAMDT with a generic epidemiological model, EPIRICE, to generate a seasonal pest outlook. The resulting CAMDT-Disease generates potential risks for selected fungal, viral, and bacterial diseases of rice over the next months by translating SCFs into agriculturally-relevant risk information. The integrated modeling procedure of CAMDT-Disease first disaggregates a given SCF using temporal downscaling methods (predictWTD or FResampler1), runs EPIRICE with the downscaled weather inputs, and finally visualizes the EPIRICE outputs as disease risk compared to that of the previous year and the 30-year-climatological average. In addition, the easy-to-use graphical user interface adopted from CAMDT allows users to simulate "what-if" scenarios of disease risks over different planting dates with given SCFs. Our future work includes the simulation of the effect of crop disease on yields through the disease simulation models with the DSSAT-CSM-Rice model, as disease remains one of the most critical yield-reducing factors in the field.

  15. Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers.

    PubMed

    Trevena, Lyndal J; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Edwards, Adrian; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Galesic, Mirta; Han, Paul K J; King, John; Lawson, Margaret L; Linder, Suzanne K; Lipkus, Isaac; Ozanne, Elissa; Peters, Ellen; Timmermans, Danielle; Woloshin, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients' risk perception and leads to better informed decision making. This paper summarises current "best practices" in communication of evidence-based numeric outcomes for developers of patient decision aids (PtDAs) and other health communication tools. An expert consensus group of fourteen researchers from North America, Europe, and Australasia identified eleven main issues in risk communication. Two experts for each issue wrote a "state of the art" summary of best evidence, drawing on the PtDA, health, psychological, and broader scientific literature. In addition, commonly used terms were defined and a set of guiding principles and key messages derived from the results. The eleven key components of risk communication were: 1) Presenting the chance an event will occur; 2) Presenting changes in numeric outcomes; 3) Outcome estimates for test and screening decisions; 4) Numeric estimates in context and with evaluative labels; 5) Conveying uncertainty; 6) Visual formats; 7) Tailoring estimates; 8) Formats for understanding outcomes over time; 9) Narrative methods for conveying the chance of an event; 10) Important skills for understanding numerical estimates; and 11) Interactive web-based formats. Guiding principles from the evidence summaries advise that risk communication formats should reflect the task required of the user, should always define a relevant reference class (i.e., denominator) over time, should aim to use a consistent format throughout documents, should avoid "1 in x" formats and variable denominators, consider the magnitude of numbers used and the possibility of format bias, and should take into account the numeracy and graph literacy of the audience. A substantial and rapidly expanding evidence base exists for risk

  16. Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients’ risk perception and leads to better informed decision making. This paper summarises current “best practices” in communication of evidence-based numeric outcomes for developers of patient decision aids (PtDAs) and other health communication tools. Method An expert consensus group of fourteen researchers from North America, Europe, and Australasia identified eleven main issues in risk communication. Two experts for each issue wrote a “state of the art” summary of best evidence, drawing on the PtDA, health, psychological, and broader scientific literature. In addition, commonly used terms were defined and a set of guiding principles and key messages derived from the results. Results The eleven key components of risk communication were: 1) Presenting the chance an event will occur; 2) Presenting changes in numeric outcomes; 3) Outcome estimates for test and screening decisions; 4) Numeric estimates in context and with evaluative labels; 5) Conveying uncertainty; 6) Visual formats; 7) Tailoring estimates; 8) Formats for understanding outcomes over time; 9) Narrative methods for conveying the chance of an event; 10) Important skills for understanding numerical estimates; and 11) Interactive web-based formats. Guiding principles from the evidence summaries advise that risk communication formats should reflect the task required of the user, should always define a relevant reference class (i.e., denominator) over time, should aim to use a consistent format throughout documents, should avoid “1 in x” formats and variable denominators, consider the magnitude of numbers used and the possibility of format bias, and should take into account the numeracy and graph literacy of the audience. Conclusion A substantial and

  17. Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2015-04-01

    Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  18. Building Gateway Tools for Informed Decision Making: The Drought Risk Atlas and U.S. Drought Monitor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svoboda, M.; Fuchs, B.; Poulsen, C.; Nothwehr, J.; Owen, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (http://drought.unl.edu) has been working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) (http://drought.gov;) and other partners with a goal of developing tools to enhance drought risk management activities in the U.S. and around the world. The NDMC is a national center founded in 1995 and located at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The NDMC conducts basic and applied research, provides a variety of services and produces decision support applications. In addition, the NDMC is involved heavily in education, outreach and planning activities and maintains a number of operational drought-related tools and products including the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and the Drought Risk Atlas (DRA). The NDMC's recently launched Drought Risk Atlas (DRA) (http://droughtatlas.unl.edu) and the continually evolving U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu;) will be the focus of this presentation. The DRA was launched in 2014 in order to help better answer the common questions of "How does this drought compare to the Dust Bowl years or some other regional drought of record?", or "How often do we see a drought as severe as this?", and "Are we seeing trends in drought frequency?". Access to new digital data sources, geospatial tools and analyses, and dissemination through a web-based interface has allowed us to triple the original National Drought Atlas station sample size and roughly double the period of record in standing up the new DRA. Building off of feedback from the user community, the SPI, SPEI, PDSI, self-calibrated PDSI, Deciles and other climatology (to also include hydrology) products are included. It is anticipated that this tool will heighten awareness and enhance decision support activities with regards to drought risk for policy makers, resource managers, producers, planners, media and the public. Examples of the DRA

  19. An Interactive Risk Detection Tool to Aid Decision-Making in Global Mangrove Restoration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, L.; Lagomasino, D.

    2017-12-01

    Mangrove ecosystems hold high ecological and economic value in coastal communities worldwide; detecting potential regions of mangrove stress is therefore critical to strategic planning of forest and coastal resources. In order to address the need for a unified risk management system for mangrove loss, a Risk Evaluation for MAngroves Portal (REMaP) was developed to identify the locations and causes of mangrove degradation worldwide, as well as project future areas of stress or loss. Long-term Earth observations from LANDSAT, MODIS, and TRMM were used in identifying regions with low, medium, and high vulnerability. Regions were categorized by vulnerability level based upon disturbance metrics in NDVI, land surface temperature, and precipitation using designated thresholds. Natural risks such as erosion and degradation were also evaluated through an analysis of NDVI time series trends from calendar year 1984 to 2017. Future trends in ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency were modeled using IPCC climate scenarios. Risk maps for anthropogenic-based disturbances such as urbanization and the expansion of agriculture and aquaculture through rice, rubber, shrimp, and oil palm farming were also included. The natural and anthropogenic risk factors evaluated were then aggregated to generate a cumulative estimate for total mangrove vulnerability in each region. This interactive modeling tool can aid decision-making on the regional, national, and international levels on an ongoing basis to continuously identify areas best suited for mangrove restoration measures, assisting governments and local communities in addressing a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals for coastal areas.

  20. Holistic risk-based environmental decision making: a Native perspective.

    PubMed Central

    Arquette, Mary; Cole, Maxine; Cook, Katsi; LaFrance, Brenda; Peters, Margaret; Ransom, James; Sargent, Elvera; Smoke, Vivian; Stairs, Arlene

    2002-01-01

    Native American Nations have become increasingly concerned about the impacts of toxic substances. Although risk assessment and risk management processes have been used by government agencies to help estimate and manage risks associated with exposure to toxicants, these tools have many inadequacies and as a result have not served Native people well. In addition, resources have not always been adequate to address the concerns of Native Nations, and involvement of Native decision makers on a government-to-government basis in discussions regarding risk has only recently become common. Finally, because the definitions of health used by Native people are strikingly different from that of risk assessors, there is also a need to expand current definitions and incorporate traditional knowledge into decision making. Examples are discussed from the First Environment Restoration Initiative, a project that is working to address toxicant issues facing the Mohawk territory of Akwesasne. This project is developing a community-defined model in which health is protected at the same time that traditional cultural practices, which have long been the key to individual and community health, are maintained and restored. PMID:11929736

  1. Tribal-Focused Environmental Risk and Sustainability Tool (Tribal-FERST) Fact Sheet

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Tribal-Focused Environmental Risk and Sustainability Tool (Tribal- FERST) is a web-based geospatial decision support tool that will provide tribes with easy access to the best available human health and ecological science.

  2. Demonstration of a modelling-based multi-criteria decision analysis procedure for prioritisation of occupational risks from manufactured nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Alstrup Jensen, Keld; Gottardo, Stefania; Isigonis, Panagiotis; Maccalman, Laura; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-11-01

    Several tools to facilitate the risk assessment and management of manufactured nanomaterials (MN) have been developed. Most of them require input data on physicochemical properties, toxicity and scenario-specific exposure information. However, such data are yet not readily available, and tools that can handle data gaps in a structured way to ensure transparent risk analysis for industrial and regulatory decision making are needed. This paper proposes such a quantitative risk prioritisation tool, based on a multi-criteria decision analysis algorithm, which combines advanced exposure and dose-response modelling to calculate margins of exposure (MoE) for a number of MN in order to rank their occupational risks. We demonstrated the tool in a number of workplace exposure scenarios (ES) involving the production and handling of nanoscale titanium dioxide, zinc oxide (ZnO), silver and multi-walled carbon nanotubes. The results of this application demonstrated that bag/bin filling, manual un/loading and dumping of large amounts of dry powders led to high emissions, which resulted in high risk associated with these ES. The ZnO MN revealed considerable hazard potential in vivo, which significantly influenced the risk prioritisation results. In order to study how variations in the input data affect our results, we performed probabilistic Monte Carlo sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, which demonstrated that the performance of the proposed model is stable against changes in the exposure and hazard input variables.

  3. Evaluating the Effectiveness of Web-based Climate Resilience Decision Support Tools: Insights from Coastal New Jersey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brady, M.; Lathrop, R.; Auermuller, L. M.; Leichenko, R.

    2016-12-01

    Despite the recent surge of Web-based decision support tools designed to promote resiliency in U.S. coastal communities, to-date there has been no systematic study of their effectiveness. This study demonstrates a method to evaluate important aspects of effectiveness of four Web map tools designed to promote consideration of climate risk information in local decision-making and planning used in coastal New Jersey. In summer 2015, the research team conducted in-depth phone interviews with users of one regulatory and three non-regulatory Web map tools using a semi-structured questionnaire. The interview and analysis design drew from a combination of effectiveness evaluation approaches developed in software and information usability, program evaluation, and management information system (MIS) research. Effectiveness assessment results were further analyzed and discussed in terms of conceptual hierarchy of system objectives defined by respective tool developer and user organizations represented in the study. Insights from the interviews suggest that users rely on Web tools as a supplement to desktop and analog map sources because they provide relevant and up-to-date information in a highly accessible and mobile format. The users also reported relying on multiple information sources and comparison between digital and analog sources for decision support. However, with respect to this decision support benefit, users were constrained by accessibility factors such as lack of awareness and training with some tools, lack of salient information such as planning time horizons associated with future flood scenarios, and environmental factors such as mandates restricting some users to regulatory tools. Perceptions of Web tool credibility seem favorable overall, but factors including system design imperfections and inconsistencies in data and information across platforms limited trust, highlighting a need for better coordination between tools. Contributions of the study include

  4. Influence diagrams as oil spill decision science tools

    EPA Science Inventory

    Making inferences on risks to ecosystem services (ES) from ecological crises can be more reliably handled using decision science tools. Influence diagrams (IDs) are probabilistic networks that explicitly represent the decisions related to a problem and evidence of their influence...

  5. A simulation-optimization-based decision support tool for mitigating traffic congestion.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-12-01

    "Traffic congestion has grown considerably in the United States over the past twenty years. In this paper, we develop : a robust decision support tool based on simulation optimization to evaluate and recommend congestion-mitigation : strategies to tr...

  6. Decision support frameworks and tools for conservation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwartz, Mark W.; Cook, Carly N.; Pressey, Robert L.; Pullin, Andrew S.; Runge, Michael C.; Salafsky, Nick; Sutherland, William J.; Williamson, Matthew A.

    2018-01-01

    The practice of conservation occurs within complex socioecological systems fraught with challenges that require transparent, defensible, and often socially engaged project planning and management. Planning and decision support frameworks are designed to help conservation practitioners increase planning rigor, project accountability, stakeholder participation, transparency in decisions, and learning. We describe and contrast five common frameworks within the context of six fundamental questions (why, who, what, where, when, how) at each of three planning stages of adaptive management (project scoping, operational planning, learning). We demonstrate that decision support frameworks provide varied and extensive tools for conservation planning and management. However, using any framework in isolation risks diminishing potential benefits since no one framework covers the full spectrum of potential conservation planning and decision challenges. We describe two case studies that have effectively deployed tools from across conservation frameworks to improve conservation actions and outcomes. Attention to the critical questions for conservation project planning should allow practitioners to operate within any framework and adapt tools to suit their specific management context. We call on conservation researchers and practitioners to regularly use decision support tools as standard practice for framing both practice and research.

  7. Development of a personalized decision aid for breast cancer risk reduction and management.

    PubMed

    Ozanne, Elissa M; Howe, Rebecca; Omer, Zehra; Esserman, Laura J

    2014-01-14

    Breast cancer risk reduction has the potential to decrease the incidence of the disease, yet remains underused. We report on the development a web-based tool that provides automated risk assessment and personalized decision support designed for collaborative use between patients and clinicians. Under Institutional Review Board approval, we evaluated the decision tool through a patient focus group, usability testing, and provider interviews (including breast specialists, primary care physicians, genetic counselors). This included demonstrations and data collection at two scientific conferences (2009 International Shared Decision Making Conference, 2009 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium). Overall, the evaluations were favorable. The patient focus group evaluations and usability testing (N = 34) provided qualitative feedback about format and design; 88% of these participants found the tool useful and 94% found it easy to use. 91% of the providers (N = 23) indicated that they would use the tool in their clinical setting. BreastHealthDecisions.org represents a new approach to breast cancer prevention care and a framework for high quality preventive healthcare. The ability to integrate risk assessment and decision support in real time will allow for informed, value-driven, and patient-centered breast cancer prevention decisions. The tool is being further evaluated in the clinical setting.

  8. Development and Testing of the MyHealthyPregnancy App: A Behavioral Decision Research-Based Tool for Assessing and Communicating Pregnancy Risk

    PubMed Central

    Davis, Alexander L; Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Fischhoff, Baruch; Sadovsky, Yoel; Simhan, Hyagriv N

    2017-01-01

    Background Despite significant advances in medical interventions and health care delivery, preterm births in the United States are on the rise. Existing research has identified important, seemingly simple precautions that could significantly reduce preterm birth risk. However, it has proven difficult to communicate even these simple recommendations to women in need of them. Our objective was to draw on methods from behavioral decision research to develop a personalized smartphone app-based medical communication tool to assess and communicate pregnancy risks related to preterm birth. Objective A longitudinal, prospective pilot study was designed to develop an engaging, usable smartphone app that communicates personalized pregnancy risk and gathers risk data, with the goal of decreasing preterm birth rates in a typically hard-to-engage patient population. Methods We used semistructured interviews and user testing to develop a smartphone app based on an approach founded in behavioral decision research. For usability evaluation, 16 participants were recruited from the outpatient clinic at a major academic hospital specializing in high-risk pregnancies and provided a smartphone with the preloaded app and a digital weight scale. Through the app, participants were queried daily to assess behavioral risks, mood, and symptomology associated with preterm birth risk. Participants also completed monthly phone interviews to report technical problems and their views on the app’s usefulness. Results App use was higher among participants at higher risk, as reflected in reporting poorer daily moods (Odds ratio, OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.99-1.47, P=.08), being more likely to smoke (OR 4.00, 95% CI 0.93-16.9, P=.06), being earlier in their pregnancy (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.12, P=.005), and having a lower body mass index (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, P=.05). Participant-reported intention to breastfeed increased from baseline to the end of the trial, t15=−2.76, P=.01. Participants

  9. Cognitive mapping tools: review and risk management needs.

    PubMed

    Wood, Matthew D; Bostrom, Ann; Bridges, Todd; Linkov, Igor

    2012-08-01

    Risk managers are increasingly interested in incorporating stakeholder beliefs and other human factors into the planning process. Effective risk assessment and management requires understanding perceptions and beliefs of involved stakeholders, and how these beliefs give rise to actions that influence risk management decisions. Formal analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognitions represent an important first step. Techniques for diagramming stakeholder mental models provide one tool for risk managers to better understand stakeholder beliefs and perceptions concerning risk, and to leverage this new understanding in developing risk management strategies. This article reviews three methodologies for assessing and diagramming stakeholder mental models--decision-analysis-based mental modeling, concept mapping, and semantic web analysis--and assesses them with regard to their ability to address risk manager needs. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Knowlton, Robert; Hubbard, Josh

    PARAT is a human health risk assessment tool for quantifying the uncertainty associated with inhalational exposures to Bacillus anthracis (Ba), which is the causative agent for contracting anthrax. The tool has a unique set of aerosol transport algorithms to account for indoor-outdoor deposition, re-aerosolization, building infiltration/exfiltration, and ventilation system effects, all of which are coded to preserve mass. PARAT is currently implemented within a Microsoft Excel application along with the Crystal Ball third-party add-on software that provides a Monte Carlo simulation technique for quantifying uncertainty in model predictions. The tool predicts both air and surface concentrations, as well as themore » fraction of the population that would contract a lethal dose from exposure to Ba. The tool can be used by decision makers to support Preliminary Remediaiton Goals (PRGs) to guide sampling and decontamination decisions after a release of Ba. Currently the de facto standard for recovery from a Ba release is a sampling protocol whereby all of the surface samples sent to a laboratory have to meet the requirement of “no culturable growth” on the media. This could lead to some very costly cleanups, as was evidenced following the 2001 anthrax letter attack responses. So PARAT may provide decision makers and risk assessors the ability to negotiate risk-based endpoints for the recovery process.« less

  11. An electronic clinical decision support tool to assist primary care providers in cardiovascular disease risk management: development and mixed methods evaluation.

    PubMed

    Peiris, David P; Joshi, Rohina; Webster, Ruth J; Groenestein, Patrick; Usherwood, Tim P; Heeley, Emma; Turnbull, Fiona M; Lipman, Alexandra; Patel, Anushka A

    2009-12-17

    Challenges remain in translating the well-established evidence for management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk into clinical practice. Although electronic clinical decision support (CDS) systems are known to improve practitioner performance, their development in Australian primary health care settings is limited. Study aims were to (1) develop a valid CDS tool that assists Australian general practitioners (GPs) in global CVD risk management, and (2) preliminarily evaluate its acceptability to GPs as a point-of-care resource for both general and underserved populations. CVD risk estimation (based on Framingham algorithms) and risk-based management advice (using recommendations from six Australian guidelines) were programmed into a software package. Tool validation: Data from 137 patients attending a physician's clinic were analyzed to compare the tool's risk scores with those obtained from an independently programmed algorithm in a separate statistics package. The tool's management advice was compared with a physician's recommendations based on a manual review of the guidelines. Field test: The tool was then tested with 21 GPs from eight general practices and three Aboriginal Medical Services. Customized CDS-based recommendations were generated for 200 routinely attending patients (33% Aboriginal) using information extracted from the health record by a research assistant. GPs reviewed these recommendations during each consultation. Changes in CVD risk factor measurement and management were recorded. In-depth interviews with GPs were conducted. Validation testing: the tool's risk assessment algorithm correlated very highly with the independently programmed version in the separate statistics package (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.999). For management advice, there were only two cases of disagreement between the tool and the physician. Field test: GPs found 77% (153/200) of patient outputs easy to understand and agreed with screening and prescribing

  12. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  13. Decision Support Methods and Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Lawrence L.; Alexandrov, Natalia M.; Brown, Sherilyn A.; Cerro, Jeffrey A.; Gumbert, Clyde r.; Sorokach, Michael R.; Burg, Cecile M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper is one of a set of papers, developed simultaneously and presented within a single conference session, that are intended to highlight systems analysis and design capabilities within the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC). This paper focuses on the specific capabilities of uncertainty/risk analysis, quantification, propagation, decomposition, and management, robust/reliability design methods, and extensions of these capabilities into decision analysis methods within SACD. These disciplines are discussed together herein under the name of Decision Support Methods and Tools. Several examples are discussed which highlight the application of these methods within current or recent aerospace research at the NASA LaRC. Where applicable, commercially available, or government developed software tools are also discussed

  14. Web-Based Tools for Data Visualization and Decision Support for South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, N.; Nelson, J.; Pulla, S. T.; Ames, D. P.; Souffront, M.; David, C. H.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gatlin, P. N.; Matin, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    The objective of the NASA SERVIR project is to assist developing countries in using information provided by Earth observing satellites to assess and manage climate risks, land use, and water resources. We present a collection of web apps that integrate earth observations and in situ data to facilitate deployment of data and water resources models as decision-making tools in support of this effort. The interactive nature of web apps makes this an excellent medium for creating decision support tools that harness cutting edge modeling techniques. Thin client apps hosted in a cloud portal eliminates the need for the decision makers to procure and maintain the high performance hardware required by the models, deal with issues related to software installation and platform incompatibilities, or monitor and install software updates, a problem that is exacerbated for many of the regional SERVIR hubs where both financial and technical capacity may be limited. All that is needed to use the system is an Internet connection and a web browser. We take advantage of these technologies to develop tools which can be centrally maintained but openly accessible. Advanced mapping and visualization make results intuitive and information derived actionable. We also take advantage of the emerging standards for sharing water information across the web using the OGC and WMO approved WaterML standards. This makes our tools interoperable and extensible via application programming interfaces (APIs) so that tools and data from other projects can both consume and share the tools developed in our project. Our approach enables the integration of multiple types of data and models, thus facilitating collaboration between science teams in SERVIR. The apps developed thus far by our team process time-varying netCDF files from Earth observations and large-scale computer simulations and allow visualization and exploration via raster animation and extraction of time series at selected points and/or regions.

  15. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    PubMed

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  16. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  17. CorRECTreatment: A Web-based Decision Support Tool for Rectal Cancer Treatment that Uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree

    PubMed Central

    Karakülah, G.; Dicle, O.; Sökmen, S.; Çelikoğlu, C.C.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians’ decision making. Objective The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. Methods The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. Results In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratio<0.1). Depending on the decisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. Conclusions The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options

  18. CorRECTreatment: a web-based decision support tool for rectal cancer treatment that uses the analytic hierarchy process and decision tree.

    PubMed

    Suner, A; Karakülah, G; Dicle, O; Sökmen, S; Çelikoğlu, C C

    2015-01-01

    The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians' decision making. The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratio<0.1). Depending on the decisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options.

  19. Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

    2003-07-01

    Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.

  20. An Electronic Clinical Decision Support Tool to Assist Primary Care Providers in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Management: Development and Mixed Methods Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Joshi, Rohina; Webster, Ruth J; Groenestein, Patrick; Usherwood, Tim P; Heeley, Emma; Turnbull, Fiona M; Lipman, Alexandra; Patel, Anushka A

    2009-01-01

    Background Challenges remain in translating the well-established evidence for management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk into clinical practice. Although electronic clinical decision support (CDS) systems are known to improve practitioner performance, their development in Australian primary health care settings is limited. Objectives Study aims were to (1) develop a valid CDS tool that assists Australian general practitioners (GPs) in global CVD risk management, and (2) preliminarily evaluate its acceptability to GPs as a point-of-care resource for both general and underserved populations. Methods CVD risk estimation (based on Framingham algorithms) and risk-based management advice (using recommendations from six Australian guidelines) were programmed into a software package. Tool validation: Data from 137 patients attending a physician’s clinic were analyzed to compare the tool’s risk scores with those obtained from an independently programmed algorithm in a separate statistics package. The tool’s management advice was compared with a physician’s recommendations based on a manual review of the guidelines. Field test: The tool was then tested with 21 GPs from eight general practices and three Aboriginal Medical Services. Customized CDS-based recommendations were generated for 200 routinely attending patients (33% Aboriginal) using information extracted from the health record by a research assistant. GPs reviewed these recommendations during each consultation. Changes in CVD risk factor measurement and management were recorded. In-depth interviews with GPs were conducted. Results Validation testing: The tool’s risk assessment algorithm correlated very highly with the independently programmed version in the separate statistics package (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.999). For management advice, there were only two cases of disagreement between the tool and the physician. Field test: GPs found 77% (153/200) of patient outputs easy to understand

  1. Decision support in addiction: The development of an e-health tool to assess and prevent risk of fatal overdose. The ORION Project.

    PubMed

    Baldacchino, A; Crocamo, C; Humphris, G; Neufeind, J; Frisher, M; Scherbaum, N; Carrà, G

    2016-09-01

    The application of e-health technology to the field of substance use disorders is at a relatively early stage, and methodological quality is still variable. Few have explored the extent of utilization of communication technology in exploring risk perception by patients enrolled in substance abuse services. The Overdose RIsk InfOrmatioN (ORION) project is a European Commission funded programme, aimed to develop and pilot an e-health psycho-educational tool to provide information to drug using individuals about the risks of suffering a drug overdose. In this article, we report on phase 1 (risk estimation), phase 2 (design), and phase 3 (feasibility) of the ORION project. The development of ORION e-health tool underlined the importance of an evidence-based intervention aimed in obtaining reliable evaluation of risk. The ORION tool supported a decision making process aimed at influencing the substance users' self-efficacy and the degree to which the substance users' understand risk factors. Therefore, its innovative power consisted in translating risks combination into a clear estimation for the user who will then appear more likely to be interested in his/her risk perception. Exploratory field testing and validation confirmed the next stage of evaluation, namely, collection of routine patient samples in study clinics. The associations between risk perception of overdose, engagement with the ORION tool and willingness to alter overdose risk factors, in a clinical setting across various EU member states will further confirm the ORION tool's generalisability and effectiveness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A decision support tool to compare waterborne and foodborne infection and/or illness risks associated with climate change.

    PubMed

    Schijven, Jack; Bouwknegt, Martijn; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Rutjes, Saskia; Sudre, Bertrand; Suk, Jonathan E; Semenza, Jan C

    2013-12-01

    Climate change may impact waterborne and foodborne infectious disease, but to what extent is uncertain. Estimating climate-change-associated relative infection risks from exposure to viruses, bacteria, or parasites in water or food is critical for guiding adaptation measures. We present a computational tool for strategic decision making that describes the behavior of pathogens using location-specific input data under current and projected climate conditions. Pathogen-pathway combinations are available for exposure to norovirus, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, and noncholera Vibrio species via drinking water, bathing water, oysters, or chicken fillets. Infection risk outcomes generated by the tool under current climate conditions correspond with those published in the literature. The tool demonstrates that increasing temperatures lead to increasing risks for infection with Campylobacter from consuming raw/undercooked chicken fillet and for Vibrio from water exposure. Increasing frequencies of drought generally lead to an elevated infection risk of exposure to persistent pathogens such as norovirus and Cryptosporidium, but decreasing risk of exposure to rapidly inactivating pathogens, like Campylobacter. The opposite is the case with increasing annual precipitation; an upsurge of heavy rainfall events leads to more peaks in infection risks in all cases. The interdisciplinary tool presented here can be used to guide climate change adaptation strategies focused on infectious diseases. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Integrating evidence and individual preferences using a web-based multi-criteria decision analytic tool: an application to prostate cancer screening.

    PubMed

    Cunich, Michelle; Salkeld, Glenn; Dowie, Jack; Henderson, Joan; Bayram, Clare; Britt, Helena; Howard, Kirsten

    2011-01-01

    Annalisa© (AL) is a web-based decision-support template grounded in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). It uses a simple expected value algorithm to calculate a score for each option by taking into account the individual's preferences for different criteria (as importance weights) and the evidence of the performance of each option on each criterion. Given the uncertainty surrounding the trade offs between benefits and harms for prostate cancer screening, this topic was chosen as the vehicle to introduce this new decision-support template. The aim of the study was to introduce a new decision-support template, AL, and to develop and pilot a decision-support tool for prostate cancer screening using it. A decision-support tool for prostate cancer screening (ALProst) was implemented in the AL template. ALProst incorporated evidence on both the benefits and the potential harms of prostate cancer screening (the 'attributes') from published randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Individual weights for each attribute were elicited during interviews. By combining the individual's preferences and the evidence, the best option for the user was identified on the basis of quantified scores. A convenience sample of computer-proficient primary-care physicians (general practitioners [GPs] in Australia) from the Sydney Metropolitan area (Australia) were invited to complete a face-to-face interview involving the decision-support tool. Preference for undergoing prostate-specific antigen testing for prostate cancer, both personally and for their patients, was sought prior to seeing the tool. After gaining hands-on experience with using the tool, GPs were asked to comment on the merits of the template and the tool. Preference for presenting the benefits of prostate cancer screening as the relative or absolute risk reduction in prostate cancer-specific mortality was also sought. Of 60 GPs approached, ten (six men and four women) completed an interview (16.7% response rate). Most GPs

  4. Web-based GIS: the vector-borne disease airline importation risk (VBD-AIR) tool

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    . The framework built provides a flexible and robust informatics infrastructure by separating the modules of functionality through an ontological model for vector-borne disease. The VBD‒AIR tool is designed as an evidence base for visualizing the risks of vector-borne disease by air travel for a wide range of users, including planners and decisions makers based in state and local government, and in particular, those at international and domestic airports tasked with planning for health risks and allocating limited resources. PMID:22892045

  5. Web-based GIS: the vector-borne disease airline importation risk (VBD-AIR) tool.

    PubMed

    Huang, Zhuojie; Das, Anirrudha; Qiu, Youliang; Tatem, Andrew J

    2012-08-14

    and robust informatics infrastructure by separating the modules of functionality through an ontological model for vector-borne disease. The VBD‒AIR tool is designed as an evidence base for visualizing the risks of vector-borne disease by air travel for a wide range of users, including planners and decisions makers based in state and local government, and in particular, those at international and domestic airports tasked with planning for health risks and allocating limited resources.

  6. Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

    2017-11-01

    The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

  7. Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

    PubMed

    Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

    2015-10-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P < 0.001). Age was the single most influential risk factor (excluding family history), with <20% of respondents choosing factors other than age. Most respondents reported that they would be likely to use a risk stratification tool in their practice either 'often' (43%) or sometimes (53%). Risk stratification was perceived to be important in clinical decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Influence Diagrams as Decision-Making Tools for Pesticide Risk Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    The pesticide policy arena is filled with discussion of probabilistic approaches to assess ecological risk, however, similar discussions about implementing formal probabilistic methods in pesticide risk decision making are less common. An influence diagram approach is proposed f...

  9. Combining multi-criteria decision analysis and mini-health technology assessment: A funding decision-support tool for medical devices in a university hospital setting.

    PubMed

    Martelli, Nicolas; Hansen, Paul; van den Brink, Hélène; Boudard, Aurélie; Cordonnier, Anne-Laure; Devaux, Capucine; Pineau, Judith; Prognon, Patrice; Borget, Isabelle

    2016-02-01

    At the hospital level, decisions about purchasing new and oftentimes expensive medical devices must take into account multiple criteria simultaneously. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used for health technology assessment (HTA). One of the most successful hospital-based HTA approaches is mini-HTA, of which a notable example is the Matrix4value model. To develop a funding decision-support tool combining MCDA and mini-HTA, based on Matrix4value, suitable for medical devices for individual patient use in French university hospitals - known as the IDA tool, short for 'innovative device assessment'. Criteria for assessing medical devices were identified from a literature review and a survey of 18 French university hospitals. Weights for the criteria, representing their relative importance, were derived from a survey of 25 members of a medical devices committee using an elicitation technique involving pairwise comparisons. As a test of its usefulness, the IDA tool was applied to two new drug-eluting beads (DEBs) for transcatheter arterial chemoembolization. The IDA tool comprises five criteria and weights for each of two over-arching categories: risk and value. The tool revealed that the two new DEBs conferred no additional value relative to DEBs currently available. Feedback from participating decision-makers about the IDA tool was very positive. The tool could help to promote a more structured and transparent approach to HTA decision-making in French university hospitals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A new Web-based medical tool for assessment and prevention of comprehensive cardiovascular risk

    PubMed Central

    Franchi, Daniele; Cini, Davide; Iervasi, Giorgio

    2011-01-01

    Background: Multifactor cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death; besides well-known cardiovascular risk factors, several emerging factors such as mental stress, diet type, and physical inactivity, have been associated to cardiovascular disease. To date, preventive strategies are based on the concept of absolute risk calculated by different algorithms and scoring systems. However, in general practice the patient’s data collection represents a critical issue. Design: A new multipurpose computer-based program has been developed in order to:1) easily calculate and compare the absolute cardiovascular risk by the Framingham, Procam, and Progetto Cuore algorithms; 2) to design a web-based computerized tool for prospective collection of structured data; 3) to support the doctor in the decision-making process for patients at risk according to recent international guidelines. Methods: During a medical consultation the doctor utilizes a common computer connected by Internet to a medical server where all the patient’s data and software reside. The program evaluates absolute and relative cardiovascular risk factors, personalized patient’s goals, and multiparametric trends, monitors critical parameter values, and generates an automated medical report. Results: In a pilot study on 294 patients (47% males; mean age 60 ± 12 years [±SD]) the global time to collect data at first consultation was 13 ± 11 minutes which declined to 8 ± 7 minutes at the subsequent consultation. In 48.2% of cases the program revealed 2 or more primary risk factor parameters outside guideline indications and gave specific clinical suggestions to return altered parameters to target values. Conclusion: The web-based system proposed here may represent a feasible and flexible tool for clinical management of patients at risk of cardiovascular disease and for epidemiological research. PMID:21445280

  11. GET SMARTE: DECISION TOOLS TO REVITALIZE BROWNFIELDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is an open-source, web-based, decision-support system for developing and evaluating future use scenarios for potentially contaminated sites (i.e., brownfields). It contains resources and analysis tools...

  12. Risk Management Implementation Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Shayla L.

    2004-01-01

    Continuous Risk Management (CM) is a software engineering practice with processes, methods, and tools for managing risk in a project. It provides a controlled environment for practical decision making, in order to assess continually what could go wrong, determine which risk are important to deal with, implement strategies to deal with those risk and assure the measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. Continuous Risk Management provides many training workshops and courses to teach the staff how to implement risk management to their various experiments and projects. The steps of the CRM process are identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and control. These steps and the various methods and tools that go along with them, identification, and dealing with risk is clear-cut. The office that I worked in was the Risk Management Office (RMO). The RMO at NASA works hard to uphold NASA s mission of exploration and advancement of scientific knowledge and technology by defining and reducing program risk. The RMO is one of the divisions that fall under the Safety and Assurance Directorate (SAAD). I worked under Cynthia Calhoun, Flight Software Systems Engineer. My task was to develop a help screen for the Continuous Risk Management Implementation Tool (RMIT). The Risk Management Implementation Tool will be used by many NASA managers to identify, analyze, track, control, and communicate risks in their programs and projects. The RMIT will provide a means for NASA to continuously assess risks. The goals and purposes for this tool is to provide a simple means to manage risks, be used by program and project managers throughout NASA for managing risk, and to take an aggressive approach to advertise and advocate the use of RMIT at each NASA center.

  13. Risk based monitoring (RBM) tools for clinical trials: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Hurley, Caroline; Shiely, Frances; Power, Jessica; Clarke, Mike; Eustace, Joseph A; Flanagan, Evelyn; Kearney, Patricia M

    2016-11-01

    In November 2016, the Integrated Addendum to ICH-GCP E6 (R2) will advise trial sponsors to develop a risk-based approach to clinical trial monitoring. This new process is commonly known as risk based monitoring (RBM). To date, a variety of tools have been developed to guide RBM. However, a gold standard approach does not exist. This review aims to identify and examine RBM tools. Review of published and grey literature using a detailed search-strategy and cross-checking of reference lists. This review included academic and commercial instruments that met the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) classification of RBM tools. Ninety-one potential RBM tools were identified and 24 were eligible for inclusion. These tools were published between 2000 and 2015. Eight tools were paper based or electronic questionnaires and 16 operated as Service as a System (SaaS). Risk associated with the investigational medicinal product (IMP), phase of the clinical trial and study population were examined by all tools and suitable mitigation guidance through on-site and centralised monitoring was provided. RBM tools for clinical trials are relatively new, their features and use varies widely and they continue to evolve. This makes it difficult to identify the "best" RBM technique or tool. For example, equivalence testing is required to determine if RBM strategies directed by paper based and SaaS based RBM tools are comparable. Such research could be embedded within multi-centre clinical trials and conducted as a SWAT (Study within a Trial). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Science-based decision making in a high-risk energy production environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiser, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Energy production practices that may induce earthquakes require decisions about acceptable risk before projects begin. How much ground shaking, structural damage, infrastructure damage, or delay of geothermal power and other operations is tolerable? I review a few mitigation strategies as well as existing protocol in several U.S. states. Timely and accurate scientific information can assist in determining the costs and benefits of altering production parameters. These issues can also be addressed with probability estimates of adverse effects ("costs"), frequency of earthquakes of different sizes, and associated impacts of different magnitude earthquakes. When risk management decisions based on robust science are well-communicated to stakeholders, mitigation efforts benefit. Effective communications elements include a) the risks and benefits of different actions (e.g. using a traffic light protocol); b) the factors to consider when determining acceptable risk; and c) the probability of different magnitude events. I present a case example for The Geysers geothermal field in California, to discuss locally "acceptable" and "unacceptable" earthquakes and share nearby communities' responses to smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes. I use the USGS's "Did You Feel It?" data archive to sample how often felt events occur, and how many of those are above acceptable magnitudes (to both local residents and operators). Using this information, I develop a science-based decision-making framework, in the case of potentially risky earthquakes, for lessening seismic risk and other negative consequences. This includes assessing future earthquake probabilities based on past earthquake records. One of my goals is to help characterize uncertainties in a way that they can be managed; to this end, I present simple and accessible approaches that can be used in the decision making process.

  15. OPTIMIZING USABILITY OF AN ECONOMIC DECISION SUPPORT TOOL: PROTOTYPE OF THE EQUIPT TOOL.

    PubMed

    Cheung, Kei Long; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Präger, Maximilian; Jones, Teresa; Józwiak-Hagymásy, Judit; Muñoz, Celia; Lester-George, Adam; Pokhrel, Subhash; López-Nicolás, Ángel; Trapero-Bertran, Marta; Evers, Silvia M A A; de Vries, Hein

    2018-01-01

    Economic decision-support tools can provide valuable information for tobacco control stakeholders, but their usability may impact the adoption of such tools. This study aims to illustrate a mixed-method usability evaluation of an economic decision-support tool for tobacco control, using the EQUIPT ROI tool prototype as a case study. A cross-sectional mixed methods design was used, including a heuristic evaluation, a thinking aloud approach, and a questionnaire testing and exploring the usability of the Return of Investment tool. A total of sixty-six users evaluated the tool (thinking aloud) and completed the questionnaire. For the heuristic evaluation, four experts evaluated the interface. In total twenty-one percent of the respondents perceived good usability. A total of 118 usability problems were identified, from which twenty-six problems were categorized as most severe, indicating high priority to fix them before implementation. Combining user-based and expert-based evaluation methods is recommended as these were shown to identify unique usability problems. The evaluation provides input to optimize usability of a decision-support tool, and may serve as a vantage point for other developers to conduct usability evaluations to refine similar tools before wide-scale implementation. Such studies could reduce implementation gaps by optimizing usability, enhancing in turn the research impact of such interventions.

  16. Designing Tools for Supporting User Decision-Making in e-Commerce

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutcliffe, Alistair; Al-Qaed, Faisal

    The paper describes a set of tools designed to support a variety of user decision-making strategies. The tools are complemented by an online advisor so they can be adapted to different domains and users can be guided to adopt appropriate tools for different choices in e-commerce, e.g. purchasing high-value products, exploring product fit to users’ needs, or selecting products which satisfy requirements. The tools range from simple recommenders to decision support by interactive querying and comparison matrices. They were evaluated in a scenario-based experiment which varied the users’ task and motivation, with and without an advisor agent. The results show the tools and advisor were effective in supporting users and agreed with the predictions of ADM (adaptive decision making) theory, on which the design of the tools was based.

  17. Development and field testing of a decision support tool to facilitate shared decision making in contraceptive counseling.

    PubMed

    Dehlendorf, Christine; Fitzpatrick, Judith; Steinauer, Jody; Swiader, Lawrence; Grumbach, Kevin; Hall, Cara; Kuppermann, Miriam

    2017-07-01

    We developed and formatively evaluated a tablet-based decision support tool for use by women prior to a contraceptive counseling visit to help them engage in shared decision making regarding method selection. Drawing upon formative work around women's preferences for contraceptive counseling and conceptual understanding of health care decision making, we iteratively developed a storyboard and then digital prototypes, based on best practices for decision support tool development. Pilot testing using both quantitative and qualitative data and cognitive testing was conducted. We obtained feedback from patient and provider advisory groups throughout the development process. Ninety-six percent of women who used the tool in pilot testing reported that it helped them choose a method, and qualitative interviews indicated acceptability of the tool's content and presentation. Compared to the control group, women who used the tool demonstrated trends toward increased likelihood of complete satisfaction with their method. Participant responses to cognitive testing were used in tool refinement. Our decision support tool appears acceptable to women in the family planning setting. Formative evaluation of the tool supports its utility among patients making contraceptive decisions, which can be further evaluated in a randomized controlled trial. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Introduction to Decision Support Systems for Risk Based Management of Contaminated Sites

    EPA Science Inventory

    A book on Decision Support Systems for Risk-based Management of contaminated sites is appealing for two reasons. First, it addresses the problem of contaminated sites, which has worldwide importance. Second, it presents Decision Support Systems (DSSs), which are powerful comput...

  19. Prototype development of a web-based participative decision support platform in risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aye, Zar Chi; Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    This paper discusses the proposed background architecture and prototype development of an internet-based decision support system (DSS) in the field of natural hazards and risk management using open-source geospatial software and web technologies. It is based on a three-tier, client-server architecture with the support of boundless (opengeo) framework and its client side SDK application environment using customized gxp components and data utility classes. The main purpose of the system is to integrate the workflow of risk management systematically with the diverse involvement of stakeholders from different organizations dealing with natural hazards and risk for evaluation of management measures through the active online participation approach. It aims to develop an adaptive user friendly, web-based environment that allows the users to set up risk management strategies based on actual context and data by integrating web-GIS and DSS functionality associated with process flow and other visualization tools. Web-GIS interface has been integrated within the DSS to deliver maps and provide certain geo-processing capabilities on the web, which can be easily accessible and shared by different organizations located in case study sites of the project. This platform could be envisaged not only as a common web-based platform for the centralized sharing of data such as hazard maps, elements at risk maps and additional information but also to ensure an integrated platform of risk management where the users could upload data, analyze risk and identify possible alternative scenarios for risk reduction especially for floods and landslides, either quantitatively or qualitatively depending on the risk information provided by the stakeholders in case study regions. The level of involvement, access to and interaction with the provided functionality of the system varies depending on the roles and responsibilities of the stakeholders, for example, only the experts (planners, geological

  20. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: JOURNAL ARTICLE

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL-CIN-1351 Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. Risk Analysis 600/R/01/104, Available: on internet, www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/Pubs/600R01104, [NET]. 03/07/2001 D...

  1. A Web-Based Decision Tool to Improve Contraceptive Counseling for Women With Chronic Medical Conditions: Protocol For a Mixed Methods Implementation Study

    PubMed Central

    Damschroder, Laura J; Fetters, Michael D; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Crabtree, Benjamin F; Hudson, Shawna V; Ruffin IV, Mack T; Fucinari, Juliana; Kang, Minji; Taichman, L Susan; Creswell, John W

    2018-01-01

    Background Women with chronic medical conditions, such as diabetes and hypertension, have a higher risk of pregnancy-related complications compared with women without medical conditions and should be offered contraception if desired. Although evidence based guidelines for contraceptive selection in the presence of medical conditions are available via the United States Medical Eligibility Criteria (US MEC), these guidelines are underutilized. Research also supports the use of decision tools to promote shared decision making between patients and providers during contraceptive counseling. Objective The overall goal of the MiHealth, MiChoice project is to design and implement a theory-driven, Web-based tool that incorporates the US MEC (provider-level intervention) within the vehicle of a contraceptive decision tool for women with chronic medical conditions (patient-level intervention) in community-based primary care settings (practice-level intervention). This will be a 3-phase study that includes a predesign phase, a design phase, and a testing phase in a randomized controlled trial. This study protocol describes phase 1 and aim 1, which is to determine patient-, provider-, and practice-level factors that are relevant to the design and implementation of the contraceptive decision tool. Methods This is a mixed methods implementation study. To customize the delivery of the US MEC in the decision tool, we selected high-priority constructs from the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research and the Theoretical Domains Framework to drive data collection and analysis at the practice and provider level, respectively. A conceptual model that incorporates constructs from the transtheoretical model and the health beliefs model undergirds patient-level data collection and analysis and will inform customization of the decision tool for this population. We will recruit 6 community-based primary care practices and conduct quantitative surveys and semistructured qualitative

  2. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) themore » Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  3. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  4. Values based decision making: a tool for achieving the goals of healthcare.

    PubMed

    Mills, Anne E; Spencer, Edward M

    2005-03-01

    The recognition that the success of the healthcare organization depends on its achievement of two interrelated goals is a relatively recent phenomenon. In its mid-history the healthcare organization was largely able to ignore cost issues. In its latter history, many would argue that it ignored its quality goals as it pursued its cost goals (15). Either approach, given declining revenues and a competitive landscape, is incompatible with continued responsible operation. If this is true, then tools that were appropriate when the healthcare organization was focused on the achievement of one or another of these goals are not adequate as the healthcare organization seeks to achieve both goals together. Thus, new perspectives and new tools must be found that help the organization address two intimately related but sometimes conflicting goals. Values based decision-making can be the perspective needed, and organization ethics is one tool that can be of use in supporting it within the institution. But there are caveats. In order for values based decision-making to be effective, leadership must take an active role in promoting its use. It must relinquish a degree of control and it must begin to trust its stakeholders to make decisions within the context of the organization's values and goals. This can be extremely difficult, as control by senior management is often seen as the only effective means of ensuring that correct decisions are made. There are additional difficulties in the healthcare organization. Control rests within two groups and the healthcare organization is operating in an environment in which variance elimination is emphasized as a means of controlling costs. This may be an appealing notion for revenue strapped healthcare organization leaders, but it implies greater control exerted by managers, not less. Relinquishing any degree of control is a frightening prospect, but it has been done successfully. An excellent example of leadership encouraging decisions

  5. Understanding the stakeholders' intention to use economic decision-support tools: A cross-sectional study with the tobacco return on investment tool.

    PubMed

    Cheung, Kei Long; Evers, Silvia M A A; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Vokó, Zoltán; Pokhrel, Subhash; Jones, Teresa; Muñoz, Celia; Wolfenstetter, Silke B; Józwiak-Hagymásy, Judit; de Vries, Hein

    2016-01-01

    Despite an increased number of economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions, the uptake by stakeholders continues to be limited. Understanding the underlying mechanism in adopting such economic decision-support tools by stakeholders is therefore important. By applying the I-Change Model, this study aims to identify which factors determine potential uptake of an economic decision-support tool, i.e., the Return on Investment tool. Stakeholders (decision-makers, purchasers of services/pharma products, professionals/service providers, evidence generators and advocates of health promotion) were interviewed in five countries, using an I-Change based questionnaire. MANOVA's were conducted to assess differences between intenders and non-intenders regarding beliefs. A multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify the main explanatory variables of intention to use an economic decision-support tool. Ninety-three stakeholders participated. Significant differences in beliefs were found between non-intenders and intenders: risk perception, attitude, social support, and self-efficacy towards using the tool. Regression showed that demographics, pre-motivational, and motivational factors explained 69% of the variation in intention. This study is the first to provide a theoretical framework to understand differences in beliefs between stakeholders who do or do not intend to use economic decision-support tools, and empirically corroborating the framework. This contributes to our understanding of the facilitators and barriers to the uptake of these studies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Accelerated bridge construction (ABC) decision making and economic modeling tool.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-12-01

    In this FHWA-sponsored pool funded study, a set of decision making tools, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. This tool set is prepared for transportation specialists and decision-makers to determine if ABC is more effective ...

  7. Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials--The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

    PubMed

    Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2016-01-15

    Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is often considered as the most transparent, objective and reliable decision-making tool for informing the risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials. ERAs are based on the assumption that it is possible to provide accurate estimates of hazard and exposure and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a "holy grail" for informing risk management. We build this thesis on the analysis of two case studies (of nonylphenol and nanomaterials) as well as a historical analysis in which we address the scientific foundation for ERAs. The analyses show that ERAs do not properly address all aspects of actual risk, such as the mixture effect and the environmentally realistic risk from nanomaterials. Uncertainties have been recognised for decades, and assessment factors are used to compensate for the lack of realism in ERAs. The assessment factors' values were pragmatically determined, thus lowering the scientific accuracy of the ERAs. Furthermore, the default choice of standard assay for assessing a hazard might not always be the most biologically relevant, so we therefore argue that an ERA should be viewed as a pragmatic decision-making tool among several, and it should not have a special status for informing risk management. In relation to other relevant decision-making tools we discuss the use of chemical alternative assessments (CAAs) and the precautionary principle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

    Treesearch

    Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy Ascher

    2011-01-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

  9. Parameter selection for and implementation of a web-based decision-support tool to predict extubation outcome in premature infants.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Martina; Wagner, Carol L; Annibale, David J; Knapp, Rebecca G; Hulsey, Thomas C; Almeida, Jonas S

    2006-03-01

    Approximately 30% of intubated preterm infants with respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) will fail attempted extubation, requiring reintubation and mechanical ventilation. Although ventilator technology and monitoring of premature infants have improved over time, optimal extubation remains challenging. Furthermore, extubation decisions for premature infants require complex informational processing, techniques implicitly learned through clinical practice. Computer-aided decision-support tools would benefit inexperienced clinicians, especially during peak neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) census. A five-step procedure was developed to identify predictive variables. Clinical expert (CE) thought processes comprised one model. Variables from that model were used to develop two mathematical models for the decision-support tool: an artificial neural network (ANN) and a multivariate logistic regression model (MLR). The ranking of the variables in the three models was compared using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The best performing model was used in a web-based decision-support tool with a user interface implemented in Hypertext Markup Language (HTML) and the mathematical model employing the ANN. CEs identified 51 potentially predictive variables for extubation decisions for an infant on mechanical ventilation. Comparisons of the three models showed a significant difference between the ANN and the CE (p = 0.0006). Of the original 51 potentially predictive variables, the 13 most predictive variables were used to develop an ANN as a web-based decision-tool. The ANN processes user-provided data and returns the prediction 0-1 score and a novelty index. The user then selects the most appropriate threshold for categorizing the prediction as a success or failure. Furthermore, the novelty index, indicating the similarity of the test case to the training case, allows the user to assess the confidence level of the prediction with regard to how much the new data differ from the data

  10. A Web-Based Treatment Decision Support Tool for Patients With Advanced Knee Arthritis: Evaluation of User Interface and Content Design

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Hua; Rosal, Milagros C; Li, Wenjun; Borg, Amy; Yang, Wenyun; Ayers, David C

    2018-01-01

    Background Data-driven surgical decisions will ensure proper use and timing of surgical care. We developed a Web-based patient-centered treatment decision and assessment tool to guide treatment decisions among patients with advanced knee osteoarthritis who are considering total knee replacement surgery. Objective The aim of this study was to examine user experience and acceptance of the Web-based treatment decision support tool among older adults. Methods User-centered formative and summative evaluations were conducted for the tool. A sample of 28 patients who were considering total knee replacement participated in the study. Participants’ responses to the user interface design, the clarity of information, as well as usefulness, satisfaction, and acceptance of the tool were collected through qualitative (ie, individual patient interviews) and quantitative (ie, standardized Computer System Usability Questionnaire) methods. Results Participants were older adults with a mean age of 63 (SD 11) years. Three-quarters of them had no technical questions using the tool. User interface design recommendations included larger fonts, bigger buttons, less colors, simpler navigation without extra “next page” click, less mouse movement, and clearer illustrations with simple graphs. Color-coded bar charts and outcome-specific graphs with positive action were easiest for them to understand the outcomes data. Questionnaire data revealed high satisfaction with the tool usefulness and interface quality, and also showed ease of use of the tool, regardless of age or educational status. Conclusions We evaluated the usability of a patient-centered decision support tool designed for advanced knee arthritis patients to facilitate their knee osteoarthritis treatment decision making. The lessons learned can inform other decision support tools to improve interface and content design for older patients’ use. PMID:29712620

  11. A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

    PubMed

    Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

    2017-03-01

    In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

  12. A Web-Based Decision Tool to Improve Contraceptive Counseling for Women With Chronic Medical Conditions: Protocol For a Mixed Methods Implementation Study.

    PubMed

    Wu, Justine P; Damschroder, Laura J; Fetters, Michael D; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Crabtree, Benjamin F; Hudson, Shawna V; Ruffin, Mack T; Fucinari, Juliana; Kang, Minji; Taichman, L Susan; Creswell, John W

    2018-04-18

    Women with chronic medical conditions, such as diabetes and hypertension, have a higher risk of pregnancy-related complications compared with women without medical conditions and should be offered contraception if desired. Although evidence based guidelines for contraceptive selection in the presence of medical conditions are available via the United States Medical Eligibility Criteria (US MEC), these guidelines are underutilized. Research also supports the use of decision tools to promote shared decision making between patients and providers during contraceptive counseling. The overall goal of the MiHealth, MiChoice project is to design and implement a theory-driven, Web-based tool that incorporates the US MEC (provider-level intervention) within the vehicle of a contraceptive decision tool for women with chronic medical conditions (patient-level intervention) in community-based primary care settings (practice-level intervention). This will be a 3-phase study that includes a predesign phase, a design phase, and a testing phase in a randomized controlled trial. This study protocol describes phase 1 and aim 1, which is to determine patient-, provider-, and practice-level factors that are relevant to the design and implementation of the contraceptive decision tool. This is a mixed methods implementation study. To customize the delivery of the US MEC in the decision tool, we selected high-priority constructs from the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research and the Theoretical Domains Framework to drive data collection and analysis at the practice and provider level, respectively. A conceptual model that incorporates constructs from the transtheoretical model and the health beliefs model undergirds patient-level data collection and analysis and will inform customization of the decision tool for this population. We will recruit 6 community-based primary care practices and conduct quantitative surveys and semistructured qualitative interviews with women who

  13. Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2004-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

  14. Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

  15. A Web-Based Treatment Decision Support Tool for Patients With Advanced Knee Arthritis: Evaluation of User Interface and Content Design.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Hua; Rosal, Milagros C; Li, Wenjun; Borg, Amy; Yang, Wenyun; Ayers, David C; Franklin, Patricia D

    2018-04-30

    Data-driven surgical decisions will ensure proper use and timing of surgical care. We developed a Web-based patient-centered treatment decision and assessment tool to guide treatment decisions among patients with advanced knee osteoarthritis who are considering total knee replacement surgery. The aim of this study was to examine user experience and acceptance of the Web-based treatment decision support tool among older adults. User-centered formative and summative evaluations were conducted for the tool. A sample of 28 patients who were considering total knee replacement participated in the study. Participants' responses to the user interface design, the clarity of information, as well as usefulness, satisfaction, and acceptance of the tool were collected through qualitative (ie, individual patient interviews) and quantitative (ie, standardized Computer System Usability Questionnaire) methods. Participants were older adults with a mean age of 63 (SD 11) years. Three-quarters of them had no technical questions using the tool. User interface design recommendations included larger fonts, bigger buttons, less colors, simpler navigation without extra "next page" click, less mouse movement, and clearer illustrations with simple graphs. Color-coded bar charts and outcome-specific graphs with positive action were easiest for them to understand the outcomes data. Questionnaire data revealed high satisfaction with the tool usefulness and interface quality, and also showed ease of use of the tool, regardless of age or educational status. We evaluated the usability of a patient-centered decision support tool designed for advanced knee arthritis patients to facilitate their knee osteoarthritis treatment decision making. The lessons learned can inform other decision support tools to improve interface and content design for older patients' use. ©Hua Zheng, Milagros C Rosal, Wenjun Li, Amy Borg, Wenyun Yang, David C Ayers, Patricia D Franklin. Originally published in JMIR Human

  16. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  17. From science to decision-making: taking the risk to communicate on risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leroi, Eric

    2015-04-01

    Geoscientists and decision-makers have the same responsibility toward the society: reducing the damaging consequences induced by natural phenomena. They have to work together, geoscientists to improve the knowledge and decision-makers to take the "best" decision, both to design and implement balanced solutions, both to communicate. Feedback shows that if the collaboration between them has already improved, a lot has still to be done, especially in terms of communication; endless litany, geoscientists don't communicate in the right way! In a hyperspecialized technological and segmented society with sophisticated methods of communication, geoscientists don't use appropriate tools and terminology. It's true, and a lot of examples can be shown that highlight this! Risks is based on complex concepts, on notions that are poorly understood, even by scientists themselves, especially the concepts of probability and occurrence of phenomena. But the problem rest as well on the role and on the responsibility of the geoscientists. Risk management experts address geosciences and technology to identify problems and define protection, including prohibitive measures (such as not allowing building in hazardous areas). Policy makers and local planners want to know where to develop territories. On one hand the identification of problems, on the other hand the needs of solutions. Dialectic is not the same. When responsibility, money and image are the three main pillars of decision-making, long-term modeling and uncertainty, are the basic ones for geosciences. In our participative democracies people want to be actor of the development of their own territories; they want more freedom, more protection and less tax. Face to unrealistic political answers geoscientists have to explain and convince. It's not possible to gain on everything and some are going to loose. Shall geoscientists let decision-makers communicate on topics they hardly understand? No. Shall geoscientists communicate on

  18. Web based collaborative decision making in flood risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evers, Mariele; Almoradie, Adrian; Jonoski, Andreja

    2014-05-01

    Stakeholder participation in the development of flood risk management (FRM) plans is essential since stakeholders often have a better understanding or knowledge of the potentials and limitation of their local area. Moreover, a participatory approach also creates trust amongst stakeholders, leading to a successful implementation of measures. Stakeholder participation however has its challenges and potential pitfalls that could lead to its premature termination. Such challenges and pitfalls are the limitation of financial resources, stakeholders' spatial distribution and their interest to participate. Different type of participation in FRM may encounter diverse challenges. These types of participation in FRM can be classified into (1) Information and knowledge sharing (IKS), (2) Consultative participation (CP) or (3) Collaborative decision making (CDM)- the most challenging type of participation. An innovative approach to address these challenges and potential pitfalls is a web-based mobile or computer-aided environment for stakeholder participation. This enhances the remote interaction between participating entities such as stakeholders. This paper presents a developed framework and an implementation of CDM web based environment for the Alster catchment (Hamburg, Germany) and Cranbrook catchment (London, UK). The CDM framework consists of two main stages: (1) Collaborative modelling and (2) Participatory decision making. This paper also highlights the stakeholder analyses, modelling approach and application of General Public License (GPL) technologies in developing the web-based environments. Actual test and evaluation of the environments was through series of stakeholders workshops. The overall results based from stakeholders' evaluation shows that web-based environments can address the challenges and potential pitfalls in stakeholder participation and it enhances participation in flood risk management. The web-based environment was developed within the DIANE

  19. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  20. Perceptions of disease risk: from social construction of subjective judgments to rational decision making.

    PubMed

    McRoberts, N; Hall, C; Madden, L V; Hughes, G

    2011-06-01

    Many factors influence how people form risk perceptions. Farmers' perceptions of risk and levels of risk aversion impact on decision-making about such things as technology adoption and disease management practices. Irrespective of the underlying factors that affect risk perceptions, those perceptions can be summarized by variables capturing impact and uncertainty components of risk. We discuss a new framework that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management. By focusing on the probability and cost (or impact) dimensions of risk, the framework integrates research from the social sciences, economics, decision theory, and epidemiology. In particular, we review some useful properties of expected regret and skill value, two measures of expected cost that are particularly useful in the evaluation of decision tools. We highlight decision-theoretic constraints on the usefulness of decision tools that may partly explain cases of failure of adoption. We extend this analysis by considering information-theoretic criteria that link model complexity and relative performance and which might explain why users reject forecasters that impose even moderate increases in the complexity of decision making despite improvements in performance or accept very simple decision tools that have relatively poor performance.

  1. Web-based decision support system to predict risk level of long term rice production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhlash, Imam; Maulidiyah, Ratna; Sutikno; Setiyono, Budi

    2017-09-01

    Appropriate decision making in risk management of rice production is very important in agricultural planning, especially for Indonesia which is an agricultural country. Good decision would be obtained if the supporting data required are satisfied and using appropriate methods. This study aims to develop a Decision Support System that can be used to predict the risk level of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java. Web-based decision support system is constructed so that the information can be easily accessed and understood. Components of the system are data management, model management, and user interface. This research uses regression models of OLS and Copula. OLS model used to predict rainfall while Copula model used to predict harvested area. Experimental results show that the models used are successfully predict the harvested area of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java at any given time based on the conditions and climate of a region. Furthermore, it can predict the amount of rice production with the level of risk. System generates prediction of production risk level in the long term for some districts that can be used as a decision support for the authorities.

  2. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

    Treesearch

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Mark J. Ducey; Robert A. Haack; Marty Siltanen; Kirsty Wilson

    2013-01-01

    Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique...

  3. Police response to domestic violence: making decisions about risk and risk management.

    PubMed

    Perez Trujillo, Monica; Ross, Stuart

    2008-04-01

    Assessing and responding to risk are key elements in how police respond to domestic violence. However, relatively little is known about the way police make judgments about the risks associated with domestic violence and how these judgments influence their actions. This study examines police decisions about risk in domestic violence incidents when using a risk assessment instrument. Based on a sample of 501 risk assessments completed by police in Australia, this study shows that a limited number of items on the risk assessment instrument are important in police officers' decisions about risk. Statistical analyses show that the victim's level of fear contributes to police officers' judgment on the level of risk and their decisions on which risk management strategy should be used. These findings suggest that research on police responses to domestic violence needs to pay greater attention to situational dynamics and the task requirements of risk-based decision making.

  4. Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

  5. Development of Asset Management Decision Support Tools for Power Equipment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okamoto, Tatsuki; Takahashi, Tsuguhiro

    Development of asset management decision support tools become very intensive in order to reduce maintenance cost of power equipment due to the liberalization of power business. This article reviews some aspects of present status of asset management decision support tools development for power equipment based on the papers published in international conferences, domestic conventions, and several journals.

  6. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

    PubMed

    Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

  7. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies’ business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and “what-if” scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results. PMID:26871694

  8. Fire behavior modeling-a decision tool

    Treesearch

    Jack Cohen; Bill Bradshaw

    1986-01-01

    The usefulness of an analytical model as a fire management decision tool is determined by the correspondence of its descriptive capability to the specific decision context. Fire managers must determine the usefulness of fire models as a decision tool when applied to varied situations. Because the wildland fire phenomenon is complex, analytical fire spread models will...

  9. A web-based tool to support shared decision making for people with a psychotic disorder: randomized controlled trial and process evaluation.

    PubMed

    van der Krieke, Lian; Emerencia, Ando C; Boonstra, Nynke; Wunderink, Lex; de Jonge, Peter; Sytema, Sjoerd

    2013-10-07

    Mental health policy makers encourage the development of electronic decision aids to increase patient participation in medical decision making. Evidence is needed to determine whether these decision aids are helpful in clinical practice and whether they lead to increased patient involvement and better outcomes. This study reports the outcome of a randomized controlled trial and process evaluation of a Web-based intervention to facilitate shared decision making for people with psychotic disorders. The study was carried out in a Dutch mental health institution. Patients were recruited from 2 outpatient teams for patients with psychosis (N=250). Patients in the intervention condition (n=124) were provided an account to access a Web-based information and decision tool aimed to support patients in acquiring an overview of their needs and appropriate treatment options provided by their mental health care organization. Patients were given the opportunity to use the Web-based tool either on their own (at their home computer or at a computer of the service) or with the support of an assistant. Patients in the control group received care as usual (n=126). Half of the patients in the sample were patients experiencing a first episode of psychosis; the other half were patients with a chronic psychosis. Primary outcome was patient-perceived involvement in medical decision making, measured with the Combined Outcome Measure for Risk Communication and Treatment Decision-making Effectiveness (COMRADE). Process evaluation consisted of questionnaire-based surveys, open interviews, and researcher observation. In all, 73 patients completed the follow-up measurement and were included in the final analysis (response rate 29.2%). More than one-third (48/124, 38.7%) of the patients who were provided access to the Web-based decision aid used it, and most used its full functionality. No differences were found between the intervention and control conditions on perceived involvement in medical

  10. GET SMARTE: DECISION TOOLS TO REVITALIZE COMMUNITIES (MAY 2006)

    EPA Science Inventory

    SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is an open-source, web-based, decision-support system for developing and evaluating future use scenarios for potentially contaminated sites (i.e., brownfields). It contains resources and analysis tools...

  11. onlineDeCISion.org: a web-based decision aid for DCIS treatment.

    PubMed

    Ozanne, Elissa M; Schneider, Katharine H; Soeteman, Djøra; Stout, Natasha; Schrag, Deborah; Fordis, Michael; Punglia, Rinaa S

    2015-11-01

    Women diagnosed with DCIS face complex treatment decisions and often do so with inaccurate and incomplete understanding of the risks and benefits involved. Our objective was to create a tool to guide these decisions for both providers and patients. We developed a web-based decision aid designed to provide clinicians with tailored information about a patient’s recurrence risks and survival outcomes following different treatment strategies for DCIS. A theoretical framework, microsimulation model (Soeteman et al., J Natl Cancer 105:774–781, 2013) and best practices for web-based decision tools guided the development of the decision aid. The development process used semi-structured interviews and usability testing with key stakeholders, including a diverse group of multidisciplinary clinicians and a patient advocate. We developed onlineDeCISion.​org to include the following features that were rated as important by the stakeholders: (1) descriptions of each of the standard treatment options available; (2) visual projections of the likelihood of time-specific (10-year and lifetime) breast-preservation, recurrence, and survival outcomes; and (3) side-by-side comparisons of down-stream effects of each treatment choice. All clinicians reviewing the decision aid in usability testing were interested in using it in their clinical practice. The decision aid is available in a web-based format and is planned to be publicly available. To improve treatment decision making in patients with DCIS, we have developed a web-based decision aid onlineDeCISion.​org that conforms to best practices and that clinicians are interested in using in their clinics with patients to better inform treatment decisions.

  12. The medical decision model and decision maker tools for management of radiological and nuclear incidents.

    PubMed

    Koerner, John F; Coleman, C Norman; Murrain-Hill, Paula; FitzGerald, Denis J; Sullivan, Julie M

    2014-06-01

    Effective decision making during a rapidly evolving emergency such as a radiological or nuclear incident requires timely interim decisions and communications from onsite decision makers while further data processing, consultation, and review are ongoing by reachback experts. The authors have recently proposed a medical decision model for use during a radiological or nuclear disaster, which is similar in concept to that used in medical care, especially when delay in action can have disastrous effects. For decision makers to function most effectively during a complex response, they require access to onsite subject matter experts who can provide information, recommendations, and participate in public communication efforts. However, in the time before this expertise is available or during the planning phase, just-in-time tools are essential that provide critical overview of the subject matter written specifically for the decision makers. Recognizing the complexity of the science, risk assessment, and multitude of potential response assets that will be required after a nuclear incident, the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, in collaboration with other government and non-government experts, has prepared a practical guide for decision makers. This paper illustrates how the medical decision model process could facilitate onsite decision making that includes using the deliberative reachback process from science and policy experts and describes the tools now available to facilitate timely and effective incident management.

  13. Intertwining Risk Insights and Design Decisions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cornford, Steven L.; Feather, Martin S.; Jenkins, J. Steven

    2006-01-01

    The state of systems engineering is such that a form of early and continued use of risk assessments is conducted (as evidenced by NASA's adoption and use of the 'Continuous Risk Management' paradigm developed by SEI). ... However, these practices fall short of theideal: (1) Integration between risk assessment techniques and other systems engineering tools is weak. (2) Risk assessment techniques and the insights they yield are only informally coupled to design decisions. (3) Individual riskassessment techniques lack the mix of breadth, fidelity and agility required to span the gamut of the design space. In this paper we present an approach that addresses these shortcomings. The hallmark of our approach is a simple representation comprising objectives (what the system is to do), risks (whose occurrence would detract from attainment of objectives) and activities (a.k.a. 'mitigations') that, if performed, will decrease those risks. These are linked to indicate by how much a risk would detract from attainment of an objective, and by how much an activity would reduce a risk. The simplicity of our representational framework gives it the breadth to encompass the gamut of the design space concerns, the agility to be utilized in even the earliest phases of designs, and the capability to connect to system engineering models and higher-fidelity risk tools. It is through this integration that we address the shortcomings listed above, and so achieve the intertwining between risk insights and design decisions needed to guide systems engineering towards superior final designs while avoiding costly rework to achieve them. The paper will use an example, constructed to be representative of space mission design, to illustrate our approach.

  14. An integrated risk assessment tool for team-based periodontal disease management.

    PubMed

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Gupta, Sugandh

    2013-01-01

    Mounting evidence suggests a potential association of periodontal disease with systemic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and stroke. The objective of this study is to develop an integrated risk assessment tool that displays a patients' risk for periodontal disease in the context of their systemic disease, social habits and oral health. Such a tool will be used by not just dental professionals but also by care providers who participate in the team-based care for chronic disease management. Displaying relationships between risk factors and its influence on the patient's general health could be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians. It may also improve the coordination of care provided by the provider-members of a chronic care team.

  15. Decision generation tools and Bayesian inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jannson, Tomasz; Wang, Wenjian; Forrester, Thomas; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Veeris, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Digital Decision Generation (DDG) tools are important software sub-systems of Command and Control (C2) systems and technologies. In this paper, we present a special type of DDGs based on Bayesian Inference, related to adverse (hostile) networks, including such important applications as terrorism-related networks and organized crime ones.

  16. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  17. Nonstationary decision model for flood risk decision scaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spence, Caitlin M.; Brown, Casey M.

    2016-11-01

    Hydroclimatic stationarity is increasingly questioned as a default assumption in flood risk management (FRM), but successor methods are not yet established. Some potential successors depend on estimates of future flood quantiles, but methods for estimating future design storms are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Here we apply a Nonstationary Decision Model (NDM) to flood risk planning within the decision scaling framework. The NDM combines a nonstationary probability distribution of annual peak flow with optimal selection of flood management alternatives using robustness measures. The NDM incorporates structural and nonstructural FRM interventions and valuation of flows supporting ecosystem services to calculate expected cost of a given FRM strategy. A search for the minimum-cost strategy under incrementally varied representative scenarios extending across the plausible range of flood trend and value of the natural flow regime discovers candidate FRM strategies that are evaluated and compared through a decision scaling analysis (DSA). The DSA selects a management strategy that is optimal or close to optimal across the broadest range of scenarios or across the set of scenarios deemed most likely to occur according to estimates of future flood hazard. We illustrate the decision framework using a stylized example flood management decision based on the Iowa City flood management system, which has experienced recent unprecedented high flow episodes. The DSA indicates a preference for combining infrastructural and nonstructural adaptation measures to manage flood risk and makes clear that options-based approaches cannot be assumed to be "no" or "low regret."

  18. Quantitative Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baldwin, Grover H.

    The use of quantitative decision making tools provides the decision maker with a range of alternatives among which to decide, permits acceptance and use of the optimal solution, and decreases risk. Training line administrators in the use of these tools can help school business officials obtain reliable information upon which to base district…

  19. Introduction to the Community-Focused Exposure and Risk Screening Tool (C-FERST)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA scientists are working partners to design and test the Community-Focused Exposure and Risk Screening Tool (C-FERST), a community mapping, information access, and assessment tool to help assess risk and assist in decision making with communities

  20. Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

    PubMed

    Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-10-15

    The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. [Evidence-based Risk and Benefit Communication for Shared Decision Making].

    PubMed

    Nakayama, Takeo

    2018-01-01

     Evidence-based medicine (EBM) can be defined as "the integration of the best research evidence with clinical expertise and a patient's unique values and circumstances". However, even with the best research evidence, many uncertainties can make clinical decisions difficult. As the social requirement of respecting patient values and preferences has been increasingly recognized, shared decision making (SDM) and consensus development between patients and clinicians have attracted attention. SDM is a process by which patients and clinicians make decisions and arrive at a consensus through interactive conversations and communications. During the process of SDM, patients and clinicians share information with each other on the goals they hope to achieve and responsibilities in meeting those goals. From the clinician's standpoint, information regarding the benefits and risks of potential treatment options based on current evidence and professional experience is provided to patients. From the patient's standpoint, information on personal values, preferences, and social roles is provided to clinicians. SDM is a sort of "wisdom" in the context of making autonomous decisions in uncertain, difficult situations through interactions and cooperation between patients and clinicians. Joint development of EBM and SDM will help facilitate patient-clinician relationships and improve the quality of healthcare.

  2. Evaluating the value of a web-based natural medicine clinical decision tool at an academic medical center

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Consumer use of herbal and natural products (H/NP) is increasing, yet physicians are often unprepared to provide guidance due to lack of educational training. This knowledge deficit may place consumers at risk of clinical complications. We wished to evaluate the impact that a natural medicine clinical decision tool has on faculty attitudes, practice experiences, and needs with respect to H/NP. Methods All physicians and clinical staff (nurse practitioners, physicians assistants) (n = 532) in departments of Pediatrics, Family and Community Medicine, and Internal Medicine at our medical center were invited to complete 2 electronic surveys. The first survey was completed immediately before access to a H/NP clinical-decision tool was obtained; the second survey was completed the following year. Results Responses were obtained from 89 of 532 practitioners (16.7%) on the first survey and 87 of 535 (16.3%) clinicians on the second survey. Attitudes towards H/NP varied with gender, age, time in practice, and training. At baseline, before having an evidence-based resource available, nearly half the respondents indicated that they rarely or never ask about H/NP when taking a patient medication history. The majority of these respondents (81%) indicated that they would like to learn more about H/NP, but 72% admitted difficulty finding evidence-based information. After implementing the H/NP tool, 63% of database-user respondents indicated that they now ask patients about H/NP when taking a drug history. Compared to results from the baseline survey, respondents who used the database indicated that the tool significantly increased their ability to find reliable H/NP information (P < 0.0001), boosted their knowledge of H/NP (p < 0.0001), and increased their confidence in providing accurate H/NP answers to patients and colleagues (P < 0.0001). Conclusions Our results demonstrate healthcare provider knowledge and confidence with H/NP can be improved without costly and

  3. Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Simple Search-Based Web Tool for Local Sea Level Rise Projections, Coastal Flood Risk Forecasts, and Inundation Exposure Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, B.; Dodson, D.; Kulp, S. A.; Rizza, D. H.

    2016-12-01

    Surging Seas Risk Finder (riskfinder.org) is an online tool for accessing extensive local projections and analysis of sea level rise; coastal floods; and land, populations, contamination sources, and infrastructure and other assets that may be exposed to inundation. Risk Finder was first published in 2013 for Florida, New York and New Jersey, expanding to all states in the contiguous U.S. by 2016, when a major new version of the tool was released with a completely new interface. The revised tool was informed by hundreds of survey responses from and conversations with planners, local officials and other coastal stakeholders, plus consideration of modern best practices for responsive web design and user interfaces, and social science-based principles for science communication. Overarching design principles include simplicity and ease of navigation, leading to a landing page with Google-like sparsity and focus on search, and to an architecture based on search, so that each coastal zip code, city, county, state or other place type has its own webpage gathering all relevant analysis in modular, scrollable units. Millions of users have visited the Surging Seas suite of tools to date, and downloaded thousands of files, for stated purposes ranging from planning to business to education to personal decisions; and from institutions ranging from local to federal government agencies, to businesses, to NGOs, and to academia.

  4. FRAMEWORK FOR RESPONSIBLE DECISION-MAKING (FRED): A TOOL FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY PREFERABLE PRODUCTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In support of the Environmentally Preferable Purchasing Program of the USEPA, a decision-making tool based on life cycle assessment has been developed. This tool, the Framework for Responsible Environmental Decision-making or FRED, streamlines LCA by choosing a minimum list of im...

  5. FRAMEWORK FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION-MAKING, FRED: A TOOL FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY-PREFERABLE PURCHASING

    EPA Science Inventory

    In support of the Environmentally Preferable Purchasing Program of the US EPA, the Systems Analysis Branch has developed a decision-making tool based on life cycle assessment. This tool, the Framework for Responsible Environmental Decision-making or FRED streamlines LCA by choosi...

  6. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  7. Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

    PubMed

    Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

    2011-06-01

    Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.

  8. Skill Transfer and Virtual Training for IND Response Decision-Making: Models for Government-Industry Collaboration for the Development of Game-Based Training Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-05-05

    Training for IND Response Decision-Making: Models for Government–Industry Collaboration for the Development of Game -Based Training Tools R.M. Seater...Skill Transfer and Virtual Training for IND Response Decision-Making: Models for Government–Industry Collaboration for the Development of Game -Based...unlimited. This page intentionally left blank. iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Game -based training tools, sometimes called “serious games ,” are becoming

  9. The neural bases underlying social risk perception in purchase decisions.

    PubMed

    Yokoyama, Ryoichi; Nozawa, Takayuki; Sugiura, Motoaki; Yomogida, Yukihito; Takeuchi, Hikaru; Akimoto, Yoritaka; Shibuya, Satoru; Kawashima, Ryuta

    2014-05-01

    Social considerations significantly influence daily purchase decisions, and the perception of social risk (i.e., the anticipated disapproval of others) is crucial in dissuading consumers from making purchases. However, the neural basis for consumers' perception of social risk remains undiscovered, and this novel study clarifies the relevant neural processes. A total of 26 volunteers were scanned while they evaluated purchase intention of products (purchase intention task) and their anticipation of others' disapproval for possessing a product (social risk task), using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The fMRI data from the purchase intention task was used to identify the brain region associated with perception of social risk during purchase decision making by using subjective social risk ratings for a parametric modulation analysis. Furthermore, we aimed to explore if there was a difference between participants' purchase decisions and their explicit evaluations of social risk, with reference to the neural activity associated with social risk perception. For this, subjective social risk ratings were used for a parametric modulation analysis on fMRI data from the social risk task. Analysis of the purchase intention task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the anterior insula, an area of the brain that is known as part of the emotion-related network. Analysis of the social risk task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the temporal parietal junction and the medial prefrontal cortex, which are known as theory-of-mind regions. Our results suggest that the anterior insula processes consumers' social risk implicitly to prompt consumers not to buy socially unacceptable products, whereas ToM-related regions process such risk explicitly in considering the anticipated disapproval of others. These findings may prove helpful in understanding the mental

  10. Classifying Nanomaterial Risks Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linkov, I.; Steevens, J.; Chappell, M.; Tervonen, T.; Figueira, J. R.; Merad, M.

    There is rapidly growing interest by regulatory agencies and stakeholders in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of the product life cycle (e.g., development, production, use and disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological material may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material because of the variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as promote the safe use/handling of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. The stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial's physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgement. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.1,2

  11. An Introduction to Solar Decision-Making Tools

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mow, Benjamin

    2017-09-12

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) offers a variety of models and analysis tools to help decision makers evaluate and make informed decisions about solar projects, policies, and programs. This fact sheet aims to help decision makers determine which NREL tool to use for a given solar project or policy question, depending on its scope.

  12. Benchmarking of Decision-Support Tools Used for Tiered Sustainable Remediation Appraisal.

    PubMed

    Smith, Jonathan W N; Kerrison, Gavin

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable remediation comprises soil and groundwater risk-management actions that are selected, designed, and operated to maximize net environmental, social, and economic benefit (while assuring protection of human health and safety). This paper describes a benchmarking exercise to comparatively assess potential differences in environmental management decision making resulting from application of different sustainability appraisal tools ranging from simple (qualitative) to more quantitative (multi-criteria and fully monetized cost-benefit analysis), as outlined in the SuRF-UK framework. The appraisal tools were used to rank remedial options for risk management of a subsurface petroleum release that occurred at a petrol filling station in central England. The remediation options were benchmarked using a consistent set of soil and groundwater data for each tier of sustainability appraisal. The ranking of remedial options was very similar in all three tiers, and an environmental management decision to select the most sustainable options at tier 1 would have been the same decision at tiers 2 and 3. The exercise showed that, for relatively simple remediation projects, a simple sustainability appraisal led to the same remediation option selection as more complex appraisal, and can be used to reliably inform environmental management decisions on other relatively simple land contamination projects.

  13. Efficacy of an evidence-based clinical decision support in primary care practices: a randomized clinical trial.

    PubMed

    McGinn, Thomas G; McCullagh, Lauren; Kannry, Joseph; Knaus, Megan; Sofianou, Anastasia; Wisnivesky, Juan P; Mann, Devin M

    2013-09-23

    There is consensus that incorporating clinical decision support into electronic health records will improve quality of care, contain costs, and reduce overtreatment, but this potential has yet to be demonstrated in clinical trials. To assess the influence of a customized evidence-based clinical decision support tool on the management of respiratory tract infections and on the effectiveness of integrating evidence at the point of care. In a randomized clinical trial, we implemented 2 well-validated integrated clinical prediction rules, namely, the Walsh rule for streptococcal pharyngitis and the Heckerling rule for pneumonia. INTERVENTIONS AND MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The intervention group had access to the integrated clinical prediction rule tool and chose whether to complete risk score calculators, order medications, and generate progress notes to assist with complex decision making at the point of care. The intervention group completed the integrated clinical prediction rule tool in 57.5% of visits. Providers in the intervention group were significantly less likely to order antibiotics than the control group (age-adjusted relative risk, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.60-0.92). The absolute risk of the intervention was 9.2%, and the number needed to treat was 10.8. The intervention group was significantly less likely to order rapid streptococcal tests compared with the control group (relative risk, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58-0.97; P= .03). The integrated clinical prediction rule process for integrating complex evidence-based clinical decision report tools is of relevant importance for national initiatives, such as Meaningful Use. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01386047.

  14. Ontology-based configuration of problem-solving methods and generation of knowledge-acquisition tools: application of PROTEGE-II to protocol-based decision support.

    PubMed

    Tu, S W; Eriksson, H; Gennari, J H; Shahar, Y; Musen, M A

    1995-06-01

    PROTEGE-II is a suite of tools and a methodology for building knowledge-based systems and domain-specific knowledge-acquisition tools. In this paper, we show how PROTEGE-II can be applied to the task of providing protocol-based decision support in the domain of treating HIV-infected patients. To apply PROTEGE-II, (1) we construct a decomposable problem-solving method called episodic skeletal-plan refinement, (2) we build an application ontology that consists of the terms and relations in the domain, and of method-specific distinctions not already captured in the domain terms, and (3) we specify mapping relations that link terms from the application ontology to the domain-independent terms used in the problem-solving method. From the application ontology, we automatically generate a domain-specific knowledge-acquisition tool that is custom-tailored for the application. The knowledge-acquisition tool is used for the creation and maintenance of domain knowledge used by the problem-solving method. The general goal of the PROTEGE-II approach is to produce systems and components that are reusable and easily maintained. This is the rationale for constructing ontologies and problem-solving methods that can be composed from a set of smaller-grained methods and mechanisms. This is also why we tightly couple the knowledge-acquisition tools to the application ontology that specifies the domain terms used in the problem-solving systems. Although our evaluation is still preliminary, for the application task of providing protocol-based decision support, we show that these goals of reusability and easy maintenance can be achieved. We discuss design decisions and the tradeoffs that have to be made in the development of the system.

  15. Risk manager formula for success: Influencing decision making.

    PubMed

    Midgley, Mike

    2017-10-01

    Providing the ultimate decision makers with a quantitative risk analysis based on thoughtful assessment by the organization's experts enables an efficient decision. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  16. OptiPhy, a technical-economic optimisation model for improving the management of plant protection practices in agriculture: a decision-support tool for controlling the toxicity risks related to pesticides.

    PubMed

    Mghirbi, Oussama; LE Grusse, Philippe; Fabre, Jacques; Mandart, Elisabeth; Bord, Jean-Paul

    2017-03-01

    The health, environmental and socio-economic issues related to the massive use of plant protection products are a concern for all the stakeholders involved in the agricultural sector. These stakeholders, including farmers and territorial actors, have expressed a need for decision-support tools for the management of diffuse pollution related to plant protection practices and their impacts. To meet the needs expressed by the public authorities and the territorial actors for such decision-support tools, we have developed a technical-economic model "OptiPhy" for risk mitigation based on indicators of pesticide toxicity risk to applicator health (IRSA) and to the environment (IRTE), under the constraint of suitable economic outcomes. This technical-economic optimisation model is based on linear programming techniques and offers various scenarios to help the different actors in choosing plant protection products, depending on their different levels of constraints and aspirations. The health and environmental risk indicators can be broken down into sub-indicators so that management can be tailored to the context. This model for technical-economic optimisation and management of plant protection practices can analyse scenarios for the reduction of pesticide-related risks by proposing combinations of substitution PPPs, according to criteria of efficiency, economic performance and vulnerability of the natural environment. The results of the scenarios obtained on real ITKs in different cropping systems show that it is possible to reduce the PPP pressure (TFI) and reduce toxicity risks to applicator health (IRSA) and to the environment (IRTE) by up to approximately 50 %.

  17. Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ray, Paul S.

    2002-01-01

    Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

  18. Participatory design of probability-based decision support tools for in-hospital nurses.

    PubMed

    Jeffery, Alvin D; Novak, Laurie L; Kennedy, Betsy; Dietrich, Mary S; Mion, Lorraine C

    2017-11-01

    To describe nurses' preferences for the design of a probability-based clinical decision support (PB-CDS) tool for in-hospital clinical deterioration. A convenience sample of bedside nurses, charge nurses, and rapid response nurses (n = 20) from adult and pediatric hospitals completed participatory design sessions with researchers in a simulation laboratory to elicit preferred design considerations for a PB-CDS tool. Following theme-based content analysis, we shared findings with user interface designers and created a low-fidelity prototype. Three major themes and several considerations for design elements of a PB-CDS tool surfaced from end users. Themes focused on "painting a picture" of the patient condition over time, promoting empowerment, and aligning probability information with what a nurse already believes about the patient. The most notable design element consideration included visualizing a temporal trend of the predicted probability of the outcome along with user-selected overlapping depictions of vital signs, laboratory values, and outcome-related treatments and interventions. Participants expressed that the prototype adequately operationalized requests from the design sessions. Participatory design served as a valuable method in taking the first step toward developing PB-CDS tools for nurses. This information about preferred design elements of tools that support, rather than interrupt, nurses' cognitive workflows can benefit future studies in this field as well as nurses' practice. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.

  19. Refining and validating a two-stage and web-based cancer risk assessment tool for village doctors in China.

    PubMed

    Shen, Xing-Rong; Chai, Jing; Feng, Rui; Liu, Tong-Zhu; Tong, Gui-Xian; Cheng, Jing; Li, Kai-Chun; Xie, Shao-Yu; Shi, Yong; Wang, De-Bin

    2014-01-01

    The big gap between efficacy of population level prevention and expectations due to heterogeneity and complexity of cancer etiologic factors calls for selective yet personalized interventions based on effective risk assessment. This paper documents our research protocol aimed at refining and validating a two-stage and web- based cancer risk assessment tool, from a tentative one in use by an ongoing project, capable of identifying individuals at elevated risk for one or more types of the 80% leading cancers in rural China with adequate sensitivity and specificity and featuring low cost, easy application and cultural and technical sensitivity for farmers and village doctors. The protocol adopted a modified population-based case control design using 72, 000 non-patients as controls, 2, 200 cancer patients as cases, and another 600 patients as cases for external validation. Factors taken into account comprised 8 domains including diet and nutrition, risk behaviors, family history, precancerous diseases, related medical procedures, exposure to environment hazards, mood and feelings, physical activities and anthropologic and biologic factors. Modeling stresses explored various methodologies like empirical analysis, logistic regression, neuro-network analysis, decision theory and both internal and external validation using concordance statistics, predictive values, etc..

  20. Pheromone-based decision support tools for management of Halyomorpha halys in apple orchards: development of a trap-based treatment threshold

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The invasive brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål), has become a serious pest in mid-Atlantic apple orchards. Because no decision support tools exist for H. halys management, calendar-based insecticide applications have been the only successful technique for mitigating H. halys injur...

  1. Creation of a Tool for Assessing Knowledge in Evidence-Based Decision-Making in Practicing Health Care Providers.

    PubMed

    Spurr, Kathy; Dechman, Gail; Lackie, Kelly; Gilbert, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Evidence-based decision-making (EBDM) is the process health care providers (HCPs) use to identify and appraise potential evidence. It supports the integration of best research evidence with clinical expertise and patient values into the decision-making process for patient care. Competence in this process is essential to delivery of optimal care. There is no objective tool that assesses EBDM across HCP groups. This research aimed to develop a content valid tool to assess knowledge of the principles of evidence-based medicine and the EBDM process, for use with all HCPs. A Delphi process was used in the creation of the tool. Pilot testing established its content validity with the added benefit of evaluating HCPs' knowledge of EBDM. Descriptive statistics and multivariate mixed models were used to evaluate individual survey responses in total, as well as within each EBDM component. The tool consisted of 26 multiple-choice questions. A total of 12,884 HCPs in Nova Scotia were invited to participate in the web-based validation study, yielding 818 (6.3%) participants, 471 of whom completed all questions. The mean overall score was 68%. Knowledge in one component, integration of evidence with clinical expertise and patient preferences, was identified as needing development across all HCPs surveyed. A content valid tool for assessing HCP EBDM knowledge was created and can be used to support the development of continuing education programs to enhance EBDM competency.

  2. A Web-Based Tool to Support Shared Decision Making for People With a Psychotic Disorder: Randomized Controlled Trial and Process Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Emerencia, Ando C; Boonstra, Nynke; Wunderink, Lex; de Jonge, Peter; Sytema, Sjoerd

    2013-01-01

    Background Mental health policy makers encourage the development of electronic decision aids to increase patient participation in medical decision making. Evidence is needed to determine whether these decision aids are helpful in clinical practice and whether they lead to increased patient involvement and better outcomes. Objective This study reports the outcome of a randomized controlled trial and process evaluation of a Web-based intervention to facilitate shared decision making for people with psychotic disorders. Methods The study was carried out in a Dutch mental health institution. Patients were recruited from 2 outpatient teams for patients with psychosis (N=250). Patients in the intervention condition (n=124) were provided an account to access a Web-based information and decision tool aimed to support patients in acquiring an overview of their needs and appropriate treatment options provided by their mental health care organization. Patients were given the opportunity to use the Web-based tool either on their own (at their home computer or at a computer of the service) or with the support of an assistant. Patients in the control group received care as usual (n=126). Half of the patients in the sample were patients experiencing a first episode of psychosis; the other half were patients with a chronic psychosis. Primary outcome was patient-perceived involvement in medical decision making, measured with the Combined Outcome Measure for Risk Communication and Treatment Decision-making Effectiveness (COMRADE). Process evaluation consisted of questionnaire-based surveys, open interviews, and researcher observation. Results In all, 73 patients completed the follow-up measurement and were included in the final analysis (response rate 29.2%). More than one-third (48/124, 38.7%) of the patients who were provided access to the Web-based decision aid used it, and most used its full functionality. No differences were found between the intervention and control conditions

  3. Decision tools in health care: focus on the problem, not the solution.

    PubMed

    Liu, Joseph; Wyatt, Jeremy C; Altman, Douglas G

    2006-01-20

    Systematic reviews or randomised-controlled trials usually help to establish the effectiveness of drugs and other health technologies, but are rarely sufficient by themselves to ensure actual clinical use of the technology. The process from innovation to routine clinical use is complex. Numerous computerised decision support systems (DSS) have been developed, but many fail to be taken up into actual use. Some developers construct technologically advanced systems with little relevance to the real world. Others did not determine whether a clinical need exists. With NHS investing 5 billion pounds sterling in computer systems, also occurring in other countries, there is an urgent need to shift from a technology-driven approach to one that identifies and employs the most cost-effective method to manage knowledge, regardless of the technology. The generic term, 'decision tool' (DT), is therefore suggested to demonstrate that these aids, which seem different technically, are conceptually the same from a clinical viewpoint. Many computerised DSSs failed for various reasons, for example, they were not based on best available knowledge; there was insufficient emphasis on their need for high quality clinical data; their development was technology-led; or evaluation methods were misapplied. We argue that DSSs and other computer-based, paper-based and even mechanical decision aids are members of a wider family of decision tools. A DT is an active knowledge resource that uses patient data to generate case specific advice, which supports decision making about individual patients by health professionals, the patients themselves or others concerned about them. The identification of DTs as a consistent and important category of health technology should encourage the sharing of lessons between DT developers and users and reduce the frequency of decision tool projects focusing only on technology. The focus of evaluation should become more clinical, with the impact of computer-based

  4. Integrated decision support tools for Puget Sound salmon recovery planning

    EPA Science Inventory

    We developed a set of tools to provide decision support for community-based salmon recovery planning in Salish Sea watersheds. Here we describe how these tools are being integrated and applied in collaboration with Puget Sound tribes and community stakeholders to address restora...

  5. Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

  6. The utility of clinical decision tools for diagnosing osteoporosis in postmenopausal women with rheumatoid arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Brand, Caroline; Lowe, Adrian; Hall, Stephen

    2008-01-01

    Background Patients with rheumatoid arthritis have a higher risk of low bone mineral density than normal age matched populations. There is limited evidence to support cost effectiveness of population screening in rheumatoid arthritis and case finding strategies have been proposed as a means to increase cost effectiveness of diagnostic screening for osteoporosis. This study aimed to assess the performance attributes of generic and rheumatoid arthritis specific clinical decision tools for diagnosing osteoporosis in a postmenopausal population with rheumatoid arthritis who attend ambulatory specialist rheumatology clinics. Methods A cross-sectional study of 127 ambulatory post-menopausal women with rheumatoid arthritis was performed. Patients currently receiving or who had previously received bone active therapy were excluded. Eligible women underwent clinical assessment and dual-energy-xray absorptiometry (DXA) bone mineral density assessment. Clinical decision tools, including those specific for rheumatoid arthritis, were compared to seven generic post-menopausal tools to predict osteoporosis (defined as T score < -2.5). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values and area under the curve were assessed. The diagnostic attributes of the clinical decision tools were compared by examination of the area under the receiver-operator-curve. Results One hundred and twenty seven women participated. The median age was 62 (IQR 56–71) years. Median disease duration was 108 (60–168) months. Seventy two (57%) women had no record of a previous DXA examination. Eighty (63%) women had T scores at femoral neck or lumbar spine less than -1. The area under the ROC curve for clinical decision tool prediction of T score <-2.5 varied between 0.63 and 0.76. The rheumatoid arthritis specific decision tools did not perform better than generic tools, however, the National Osteoporosis Foundation score could potentially reduce the number of unnecessary DXA

  7. Dissemination of a Web-Based Tool for Supporting Health Insurance Plan Decisions (Show Me Health Plans): Cross-Sectional Observational Study.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jingsong; Mir, Nageen; Ackermann, Nicole; Kaphingst, Kimberly A; Politi, Mary C

    2018-06-20

    The rate of uninsured people has decreased dramatically since the Affordable Care Act was passed. To make an informed decision, consumers need assistance to understand the advantages and disadvantages of health insurance plans. The Show Me Health Plans Web-based decision support tool was developed to improve the quality of health insurance selection. In response to the promising effectiveness of Show Me Health Plans in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) and the growing need for Web-based health insurance decision support, the study team used expert recommendations for dissemination and implementation, engaged external stakeholders, and made the Show Me Health Plans tool available to the public. The purpose of this study was to implement the public dissemination of the Show Me Health Plans tool in the state of Missouri and to evaluate its impact compared to the RCT. This study used a cross-sectional observational design. Dissemination phase users were compared with users in the RCT study across the same outcome measures. Time spent using the Show Me Health Plans tool, knowledge, importance rating of 9 health insurance features, and intended plan choice match with algorithm predictions were examined. During the dissemination phase (November 2016 to January 2017), 10,180 individuals visited the SMHP website, and the 1069 users who stayed on the tool for more than one second were included in our analyses. Dissemination phase users were more likely to live outside St. Louis City or County (P<.001), were less likely to be below the federal poverty level (P<.001), and had a higher income (P=.03). Overall, Show Me Health Plans users from St. Louis City or County spent more time on the Show Me Health Plans tool than those from other Missouri counties (P=.04); this association was not observed in the RCT. Total time spent on the tool was not correlated with knowledge scores, which were associated with lower poverty levels (P=.009). The users from the RCT phase were more

  8. European Social Work Research Association SIG to Study Decisions, Assessment, and Risk.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Brian; Killick, Campbell; Bertotti, Teresa; Enosh, Guy; Gautschi, Joel; Hietamäki, Johanna; Sicora, Alessandro; Whittaker, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    The increasing interest in professional judgement and decision making is often separate from the discourse about "risk," and the time-honored focus on assessment. The need to develop research in and across these topics was recognized in the founding of a Decisions, Assessment, and Risk Special Interest Group (DARSIG) by the European Social Work Research Association in 2014. The Group's interests include cognitive judgements; decision processes with clients, families, other professionals and courts; assessment tools and processes; the assessment, communication, and management of risk; and legal, ethical, and emotional aspects of these. This article outlines the founding and scope of DARSIG; gives an overview of decision making, assessment, and risk for practice; illustrates connections between these; and highlights future research directions. Professional knowledge about decision making, assessment, and risk complements knowledge about effectiveness of interventions. DARSIG promises to be a useful mechanism for the purpose.

  9. Beyond evidence-based nursing: tools for practice.

    PubMed

    Jutel, Annemarie

    2008-05-01

    This commentary shares my views of evidence-based nursing as a framework for practice, pointing out its limitations and identifying a wider base of appraisal tools required for making good clinical decisions. As the principles of evidence-based nursing take an increasingly greater hold on nursing education, policy and management, it is important to consider the range of other decision-making tools which are subordinated by this approach. This article summarizes nursing's simultaneous reliance on and critique of evidence-based practice (EBP) in a context of inadequate critical reasoning. It then provides an exemplar of the limitations of evidence-based practice and offers an alternative view of important precepts of decision-making. I identify means by which nurses can develop skills to engage in informed and robust critique of practices and their underpinning rationale. Nurses need to be able to locate and assess useful and reliable information for decision-making. This skill is based on a range of tools which include, but also go beyond EBP including: information literacy, humanities, social sciences, public health, statistics, marketing, ethics and much more. This essay prompts nursing managers to reflect upon whether a flurried enthusiasm to adopt EBP neglects other important decision-making skills which provide an even stronger foundation for robust nursing decisions.

  10. Risk-taking and decision-making in youth: relationships to addiction vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Balogh, Kornelia N; Mayes, Linda C; Potenza, Marc N

    2013-03-01

    Decision-making and risk-taking behavior undergo developmental changes during adolescence. Disadvantageous decision-making and increased risk-taking may lead to problematic behaviors such as substance use and abuse, pathological gambling and excessive internet use. Based on MEDLINE searches, this article reviews the literature on decision-making and risk-taking and their relationship to addiction vulnerability in youth. Decision-making and risk-taking behaviors involve brain areas that undergoing developmental changes during puberty and young adulthood. Individual differences and peer pressure also relate importantly to decision-making and risk-taking. Brain-based changes in emotional, motivational and cognitive processing may underlie risk-taking and decision-making propensities in adolescence, making this period a time of heightened vulnerability for engagement in additive behaviors.

  11. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    PubMed

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Fews-Risk: A step towards risk-based flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, Daniel; Eilander, Dirk; de Leeuw, Annemargreet; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Weerts, Albrecht; de Bruijn, Karin; Beckers, Joost; Boelee, Leonore; Brown, Emma; Hazlewood, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Operational flood prediction and the assessment of flood risk are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within operational flood management. However, the information provided for decision support is restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in a model-based flood forecasting system. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. The idea of FEWS-Risk is the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. Thus, additional information is provided to the decision makers, such as: • Location, timing and probability of failure of defined sections of the flood defence line; • Flood spreading, extent and hydraulic values in the hinterland caused by an overflow or a breach flow • Impacts and consequences in case of flooding in the protected areas, such as injuries or casualties and/or damages to critical infrastructure or economy. In contrast with purely hydraulic-based operational information, these additional data focus upon decision support for answering crucial questions within an operational flood forecasting framework, such as: • Where should I reinforce my flood defence system? • What type of action can I take to mend a weak spot in my flood defences? • What are the consequences of a breach? • Which areas should I evacuate first? This presentation outlines the additional required workflows towards risk-based flood

  13. Practical Application of Modern Forecasting and Decision Tools at an Operational River Management Agency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jawdy, C. M.; Carney, S.; Barber, N. M.; Balk, B. C.; Miller, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) recently completed a complete overhaul of our River Forecast System (RFS). This modernization effort encompassed: uplift or addition of 89 data feeds calibration of a 140 subbasin rainfall-runoff model calibration of over 650 miles of hydraulic routings implementation of a decision optimization routine for 29 reservoirs implementation of hydrothermal forecast models for five river-cooled thermal plants creation of decision-friendly displays creation of a user-friendly wiki creation of a robust reporting system This talk will walk attendees through how a 24x7 river and grid management agency made decisions around how to operationalize the latest technologies in hydrology, hydraulics, decision science and information technology. The tradeoffs inherent in such an endeavor will be discussed so that research-oriented attendees can understand how best to align their research if they desire adoption within industry. More industry-oriented attendees can learn about the mechanics of how to succeed at such a large and complex project. Following the description of the modernization project, I can discuss TVA's plans for future growth of the system. We plan to add the following capabilities in the coming years: forecast verification tools to communicate floodplain risk tools to choose the best possible model forcings ensemble inflow modelling a river policy that allows for more reasonable tradeoff of benefits river decisions based on ensembles The iterative staging of such improvements is highly fraught with technical, political and operational risks. I will discuss how TVA's is using what we learned in the RFS modernization effort to grow further into delivering on the promise of these additional technologies.

  14. Tools to support evidence-informed public health decision making.

    PubMed

    Yost, Jennifer; Dobbins, Maureen; Traynor, Robyn; DeCorby, Kara; Workentine, Stephanie; Greco, Lori

    2014-07-18

    Public health professionals are increasingly expected to engage in evidence-informed decision making to inform practice and policy decisions. Evidence-informed decision making involves the use of research evidence along with expertise, existing public health resources, knowledge about community health issues, the local context and community, and the political climate. The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools has identified a seven step process for evidence-informed decision making. Tools have been developed to support public health professionals as they work through each of these steps. This paper provides an overview of tools used in three Canadian public health departments involved in a study to develop capacity for evidence-informed decision making. As part of a knowledge translation and exchange intervention, a Knowledge Broker worked with public health professionals to identify and apply tools for use with each of the steps of evidence-informed decision making. The Knowledge Broker maintained a reflective journal and interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of decision makers and public health professionals. This paper presents qualitative analysis of the perceived usefulness and usability of the tools. Tools were used in the health departments to assist in: question identification and clarification; searching for the best available research evidence; assessing the research evidence for quality through critical appraisal; deciphering the 'actionable message(s)' from the research evidence; tailoring messages to the local context to ensure their relevance and suitability; deciding whether and planning how to implement research evidence in the local context; and evaluating the effectiveness of implementation efforts. Decision makers provided descriptions of how the tools were used within the health departments and made suggestions for improvement. Overall, the tools were perceived as valuable for advancing and sustaining evidence

  15. Development and evaluation of RAMP I - a practitioner's tool for screening of musculoskeletal disorder risk factors in manual handling.

    PubMed

    Lind, Carl Mikael; Forsman, Mikael; Rose, Linda Maria

    2017-10-16

    RAMP I is a screening tool developed to support practitioners in screening for work-related musculoskeletal disorder risk factors related to manual handling. RAMP I, which is part of the RAMP tool, is based on research-based studies combined with expert group judgments. More than 80 practitioners participated in the development of RAMP I. The tool consists of dichotomous assessment items grouped into seven categories. Acceptable reliability was found for a majority of the assessment items for 15 practitioners who were given 1 h of training. The usability evaluation points to RAMP I being usable for screening for musculoskeletal disorder risk factors, i.e., usable for assessing risks, being usable as a decision base, having clear results and that the time needed for an assessment is acceptable. It is concluded that RAMP I is a usable tool for practitioners.

  16. Community-based participatory research and user-centered design in a diabetes medication information and decision tool.

    PubMed

    Henderson, Vida A; Barr, Kathryn L; An, Lawrence C; Guajardo, Claudia; Newhouse, William; Mase, Rebecca; Heisler, Michele

    2013-01-01

    Together, community-based participatory research (CBPR), user-centered design (UCD), and health information technology (HIT) offer promising approaches to improve health disparities in low-resource settings. This article describes the application of CBPR and UCD principles to the development of iDecide/Decido, an interactive, tailored, web-based diabetes medication education and decision support tool delivered by community health workers (CHWs) to African American and Latino participants with diabetes in Southwest and Eastside Detroit. The decision aid is offered in English or Spanish and is delivered on an iPad in participants' homes. The overlapping principles of CBPR and UCD used to develop iDecide/Decido include a user-focused or community approach, equitable academic and community partnership in all study phases, an iterative development process that relies on input from all stakeholders, and a program experience that is specified, adapted, and implemented with the target community. Collaboration between community members, researchers, and developers is especially evident in the program's design concept, animations, pictographs, issue cards, goal setting, tailoring, and additional CHW tools. The principles of CBPR and UCD can be successfully applied in developing health information tools that are easy to use and understand, interactive, and target health disparities.

  17. APPLICATION OF THE US DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR MATERIALS AND WASTE MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA¿s National Risk Management Research Laboratory has led the development of a municipal solid waste decision support tool (MSW-DST). The computer software can be used to calculate life-cycle environmental tradeoffs and full costs of different waste management plans or recycling...

  18. A practical approach to communicating benefit-risk decisions of medicines to stakeholders.

    PubMed

    Leong, James; Walker, Stuart; Salek, Sam

    2015-01-01

    The importance of a framework for a systematic structured assessment of the benefits and risks has been established, but in addition, it is necessary that the benefit-risk decisions and the processes to derive those decisions are documented and communicated to various stakeholders for accountability. Hence there is now a need to find appropriate tools to enhance communication between regulators and other stakeholders, in a manner that would uphold transparency, consistency and standards. A retrospective, non-comparative study was conducted to determine the applicability and practicality of a summary template in documenting benefit-risk assessment and communicating benefit-risk balance and conclusions for reviewers to other stakeholders. The benefit-risk (BR) Summary Template and its User Manual was evaluated by 12 reviewers within a regulatory agency in Singapore, the Health Sciences Authority (HSA). The BR Summary Template was found to be adequate in documenting benefits, risks, relevant summaries and conclusions, while the User Manual was useful in guiding the reviewer in completing the template. The BR Summary Template was also considered a useful tool for communicating benefit-risk decisions to a variety of stakeholders. The use of a template may be of value for the communicating benefit-risk assessment of medicines to stakeholders.

  19. Risk-taking and decision-making in youth: relationships to addiction vulnerability

    PubMed Central

    Balogh, Kornelia N.; Mayes, Linda C.; Potenza, Marc N.

    2013-01-01

    Background Decision-making and risk-taking behavior undergo developmental changes during adolescence. Disadvantageous decision-making and increased risk-taking may lead to problematic behaviors such as substance use and abuse, pathological gambling and excessive internet use. Methods Based on MEDLINE searches, this article reviews the literature on decision-making and risk-taking and their relationship to addiction vulnerability in youth. Results Decision-making and risk-taking behaviors involve brain areas that undergoing developmental changes during puberty and young adulthood. Individual differences and peer pressure also relate importantly to decision-making and risk-taking. Conclusions Brain-based changes in emotional, motivational and cognitive processing may underlie risk-taking and decision-making propensities in adolescence, making this period a time of heightened vulnerability for engagement in additive behaviors. PMID:24294500

  20. Development of a computer-based clinical decision support tool for selecting appropriate rehabilitation interventions for injured workers.

    PubMed

    Gross, Douglas P; Zhang, Jing; Steenstra, Ivan; Barnsley, Susan; Haws, Calvin; Amell, Tyler; McIntosh, Greg; Cooper, Juliette; Zaiane, Osmar

    2013-12-01

    To develop a classification algorithm and accompanying computer-based clinical decision support tool to help categorize injured workers toward optimal rehabilitation interventions based on unique worker characteristics. Population-based historical cohort design. Data were extracted from a Canadian provincial workers' compensation database on all claimants undergoing work assessment between December 2009 and January 2011. Data were available on: (1) numerous personal, clinical, occupational, and social variables; (2) type of rehabilitation undertaken; and (3) outcomes following rehabilitation (receiving time loss benefits or undergoing repeat programs). Machine learning, concerned with the design of algorithms to discriminate between classes based on empirical data, was the foundation of our approach to build a classification system with multiple independent and dependent variables. The population included 8,611 unique claimants. Subjects were predominantly employed (85 %) males (64 %) with diagnoses of sprain/strain (44 %). Baseline clinician classification accuracy was high (ROC = 0.86) for selecting programs that lead to successful return-to-work. Classification performance for machine learning techniques outperformed the clinician baseline classification (ROC = 0.94). The final classifiers were multifactorial and included the variables: injury duration, occupation, job attachment status, work status, modified work availability, pain intensity rating, self-rated occupational disability, and 9 items from the SF-36 Health Survey. The use of machine learning classification techniques appears to have resulted in classification performance better than clinician decision-making. The final algorithm has been integrated into a computer-based clinical decision support tool that requires additional validation in a clinical sample.

  1. A decision tool for selecting trench cap designs

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Paige, G.B.; Stone, J.J.; Lane, L.J.

    1995-12-31

    A computer based prototype decision support system (PDSS) is being developed to assist the risk manager in selecting an appropriate trench cap design for waste disposal sites. The selection of the {open_quote}best{close_quote} design among feasible alternatives requires consideration of multiple and often conflicting objectives. The methodology used in the selection process consists of: selecting and parameterizing decision variables using data, simulation models, or expert opinion; selecting feasible trench cap design alternatives; ordering the decision variables and ranking the design alternatives. The decision model is based on multi-objective decision theory and uses a unique approach to order the decision variables andmore » rank the design alternatives. Trench cap designs are evaluated based on federal regulations, hydrologic performance, cover stability and cost. Four trench cap designs, which were monitored for a four year period at Hill Air Force Base in Utah, are used to demonstrate the application of the PDSS and evaluate the results of the decision model. The results of the PDSS, using both data and simulations, illustrate the relative advantages of each of the cap designs and which cap is the {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} alternative for a given set of criteria and a particular importance order of those decision criteria.« less

  2. A Decision Support System for Drinking Water Production Integrating Health Risks Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T.; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G.; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634

  3. A decision support system for drinking water production integrating health risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-07-18

    The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation.

  4. Tools to support evidence-informed public health decision making

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Public health professionals are increasingly expected to engage in evidence-informed decision making to inform practice and policy decisions. Evidence-informed decision making involves the use of research evidence along with expertise, existing public health resources, knowledge about community health issues, the local context and community, and the political climate. The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools has identified a seven step process for evidence-informed decision making. Tools have been developed to support public health professionals as they work through each of these steps. This paper provides an overview of tools used in three Canadian public health departments involved in a study to develop capacity for evidence-informed decision making. Methods As part of a knowledge translation and exchange intervention, a Knowledge Broker worked with public health professionals to identify and apply tools for use with each of the steps of evidence-informed decision making. The Knowledge Broker maintained a reflective journal and interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of decision makers and public health professionals. This paper presents qualitative analysis of the perceived usefulness and usability of the tools. Results Tools were used in the health departments to assist in: question identification and clarification; searching for the best available research evidence; assessing the research evidence for quality through critical appraisal; deciphering the ‘actionable message(s)’ from the research evidence; tailoring messages to the local context to ensure their relevance and suitability; deciding whether and planning how to implement research evidence in the local context; and evaluating the effectiveness of implementation efforts. Decision makers provided descriptions of how the tools were used within the health departments and made suggestions for improvement. Overall, the tools were perceived as valuable for advancing

  5. Dynamic Attack Tree Tool for Risk Assessments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Black, Karl

    2012-03-13

    DATT enables interactive visualization, qualitative analysis and recording of cyber and other forms of risk. It facilitates dynamic risk-based approaches (as opposed to static compliance-based) to security and risk management in general. DATT allows decision makers to consistently prioritize risk mitigation strategies and quickly see where attention is most needed across the enterprise.

  6. Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

  7. The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

    PubMed

    Dias, Cláudia Camila; Pereira Rodrigues, Pedro; Fernandes, Samuel; Portela, Francisco; Ministro, Paula; Martins, Diana; Sousa, Paula; Lago, Paula; Rosa, Isadora; Correia, Luis; Moura Santos, Paula; Magro, Fernando

    2017-01-01

    Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables. This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables. Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation. The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.

  8. The Environmental Virtual Observatory (EVO) local exemplar: A cloud based local landscape learning visualisation tool for communicating flood risk to catchment stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Mark; Beven, Keith; Brewer, Paul; El-khatib, Yehia; Gemmell, Alastair; Haygarth, Phil; Mackay, Ellie; Macklin, Mark; Marshall, Keith; Quinn, Paul; Stutter, Marc; Thomas, Nicola; Vitolo, Claudia

    2013-04-01

    Today's world is dominated by a wide range of informatics tools that are readily available to a wide range of stakeholders. There is growing recognition that the appropriate involvement of local communities in land and water management decisions can result in multiple environmental, economic and social benefits. Therefore, local stakeholder groups are increasingly being asked to participate in decision making alongside policy makers, government agencies and scientists. As such, addressing flooding issues requires new ways of engaging with the catchment and its inhabitants at a local level. To support this, new tools and approaches are required. The growth of cloud based technologies offers new novel ways to facilitate this process of exchange of information in earth sciences. The Environmental Virtual Observatory Pilot project (EVOp) is a new initiative from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) designed to deliver proof of concept for new tools and approaches to support the challenges as outlined above (http://www.evo-uk.org/). The long term vision of the Environmental Virtual Observatory is to: • Make environmental data more visible and accessible to a wide range of potential users including public good applications; • Provide tools to facilitate the integrated analysis of data, greater access to added knowledge and expert analysis and visualisation of the results; • Develop new, added-value knowledge from public and private sector data assets to help tackle environmental challenges. As part of the EVO pilot, an interactive cloud based tool has been developed with local stakeholders. The Local Landscape Visualisation Tool attempts to communicate flood risk in local impacted communities. The tool has been developed iteratively to reflect the needs, interests and capabilities of a wide range of stakeholders. This tool (assessable via a web portal) combines numerous cloud based tools and services, local catchment datasets, hydrological models and

  9. New Decision Tool To Evaluate Award Selection Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thornley, Richard; Spence, Matthew W.; Taylor, Mark; Magnan, Jacques

    2002-01-01

    Describes an Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research initiative to enhance the review process for its training awards using a new tool based on the ProGrid decision-assist software. Implementation resulted in several modifications to the review process in the areas of definition, rationality, fairness, timeliness, and responsiveness; the…

  10. A new microbiological risk analysis tool for cryptosporidium to support decision making in drinking water treatment plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macián-Cervera, Javier; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio

    2017-04-01

    One of the main hazards over the water quality in the water supply systems from surface raw water is cryptosporidium, considered by World Health Organization, as the most dangerous emergent pathogen. Analitycal methods for cryptosporidium are expensive, laborious and they do not have enough precission, on the other hand, labs analyze discretal samples, while drinking water production is a continuous process. In that point, the introduction of risk models in necessary to check the ability of safety of the water produced. The advances in tools able to quantify risk applied to conventional treatment drinking water treatment plants is quite useful for the operators, able to assess about decisions in operation and in investments. The model is applied into a real facility. With the results, it's possible to conclude interesting guidelines and policies about improving plant's operation mode. The main conclusion is that conventional treatment is able to work as effective barrier against cryptosporidium, but it is necessary to assess the risk of the plant while it is operating. Taking into account limitations of knowledge, risk estimation can rise non tolerable levels. In that situation, the plant must make investments in the treatment improving the operation, to get tolerable risk levels.

  11. Updating Risk Prediction Tools: A Case Study in Prostate Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Ankerst, Donna P.; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J.; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G.; Partin, Alan W.; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M.

    2013-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [−2]proPSA measured on an external case control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. PMID:22095849

  12. Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

    2012-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. A Conceptual Framework for Decision-making Support in Uncertainty- and Risk-based Diagnosis of Rare Clinical Cases by Specialist Physicians.

    PubMed

    Santos, Adriano A; Moura, J Antão B; de Araújo, Joseana Macêdo Fechine Régis

    2015-01-01

    Mitigating uncertainty and risks faced by specialist physicians in analysis of rare clinical cases is something desired by anyone who needs health services. The number of clinical cases never seen by these experts, with little documentation, may introduce errors in decision-making. Such errors negatively affect well-being of patients, increase procedure costs, rework, health insurance premiums, and impair the reputation of specialists and medical systems involved. In this context, IT and Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) play a fundamental role, supporting decision-making process, making it more efficient and effective, reducing a number of avoidable medical errors and enhancing quality of treatment given to patients. An investigation has been initiated to look into characteristics and solution requirements of this problem, model it, propose a general solution in terms of a conceptual risk-based, automated framework to support rare-case medical diagnostics and validate it by means of case studies. A preliminary validation study of the proposed framework has been carried out by interviews conducted with experts who are practicing professionals, academics, and researchers in health care. This paper summarizes the investigation and its positive results. These results motivate continuation of research towards development of the conceptual framework and of a software tool that implements the proposed model.

  14. Opportunities and Strategies to Incorporate Ecosystem Services Knowledge and Decision Support Tools into Planning and Decision Making in Hawai`i

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bremer, Leah L.; Delevaux, Jade M. S.; Leary, James J. K.; J. Cox, Linda; Oleson, Kirsten L. L.

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating ecosystem services into management decisions is a promising means to link conservation and human well-being. Nonetheless, planning and management in Hawai`i, a state with highly valued natural capital, has yet to broadly utilize an ecosystem service approach. We conducted a stakeholder assessment, based on semi-structured interviews, with terrestrial ( n = 26) and marine ( n = 27) natural resource managers across the State of Hawai`i to understand the current use of ecosystem services (ES) knowledge and decision support tools and whether, how, and under what contexts, further development would potentially be useful. We found that ES knowledge and tools customized to Hawai`i could be useful for communication and outreach, justifying management decisions, and spatial planning. Greater incorporation of this approach is clearly desired and has a strong potential to contribute to more sustainable decision making and planning in Hawai`i and other oceanic island systems. However, the unique biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural context of Hawai`i, and other island systems, will require substantial adaptation of existing ES tools. Based on our findings, we identified four key opportunities for the use of ES knowledge and tools in Hawai`i: (1) linking native forest protection to watershed health; (2) supporting sustainable agriculture; (3) facilitating ridge-to-reef management; and (4) supporting statewide terrestrial and marine spatial planning. Given the interest expressed by natural resource managers, we envision broad adoption of ES knowledge and decision support tools if knowledge and tools are tailored to the Hawaiian context and coupled with adequate outreach and training.

  15. Opportunities and strategies to incorporate ecosystem services knowledge and decision support tools into planning and decision making in Hawai'i.

    PubMed

    Bremer, Leah L; Delevaux, Jade M S; Leary, James J K; J Cox, Linda; Oleson, Kirsten L L

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating ecosystem services into management decisions is a promising means to link conservation and human well-being. Nonetheless, planning and management in Hawai'i, a state with highly valued natural capital, has yet to broadly utilize an ecosystem service approach. We conducted a stakeholder assessment, based on semi-structured interviews, with terrestrial (n = 26) and marine (n = 27) natural resource managers across the State of Hawai'i to understand the current use of ecosystem services (ES) knowledge and decision support tools and whether, how, and under what contexts, further development would potentially be useful. We found that ES knowledge and tools customized to Hawai'i could be useful for communication and outreach, justifying management decisions, and spatial planning. Greater incorporation of this approach is clearly desired and has a strong potential to contribute to more sustainable decision making and planning in Hawai'i and other oceanic island systems. However, the unique biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural context of Hawai'i, and other island systems, will require substantial adaptation of existing ES tools. Based on our findings, we identified four key opportunities for the use of ES knowledge and tools in Hawai'i: (1) linking native forest protection to watershed health; (2) supporting sustainable agriculture; (3) facilitating ridge-to-reef management; and (4) supporting statewide terrestrial and marine spatial planning. Given the interest expressed by natural resource managers, we envision broad adoption of ES knowledge and decision support tools if knowledge and tools are tailored to the Hawaiian context and coupled with adequate outreach and training.

  16. Tailoring implementation strategies for evidence-based recommendations using computerised clinical decision support systems: protocol for the development of the GUIDES tools.

    PubMed

    Van de Velde, Stijn; Roshanov, Pavel; Kortteisto, Tiina; Kunnamo, Ilkka; Aertgeerts, Bert; Vandvik, Per Olav; Flottorp, Signe

    2016-03-05

    A computerised clinical decision support system (CCDSS) is a technology that uses patient-specific data to provide relevant medical knowledge at the point of care. It is considered to be an important quality improvement intervention, and the implementation of CCDSS is growing substantially. However, the significant investments do not consistently result in value for money due to content, context, system and implementation issues. The Guideline Implementation with Decision Support (GUIDES) project aims to improve the impact of CCDSS through optimised implementation based on high-quality evidence-based recommendations. To achieve this, we will develop tools that address the factors that determine successful CCDSS implementation. We will develop the GUIDES tools in four steps, using the methods and results of the Tailored Implementation for Chronic Diseases (TICD) project as a starting point: (1) a review of research evidence and frameworks on the determinants of implementing recommendations using CCDSS; (2) a synthesis of a comprehensive framework for the identified determinants; (3) the development of tools for use of the framework and (4) pilot testing the utility of the tools through the development of a tailored CCDSS intervention in Norway, Belgium and Finland. We selected the conservative management of knee osteoarthritis as a prototype condition for the pilot. During the process, the authors will collaborate with an international expert group to provide input and feedback on the tools. This project will provide guidance and tools on methods of identifying implementation determinants and selecting strategies to implement evidence-based recommendations through CCDSS. We will make the GUIDES tools available to CCDSS developers, implementers, researchers, funders, clinicians, managers, educators, and policymakers internationally. The tools and recommendations will be generic, which makes them scalable to a large spectrum of conditions. Ultimately, the better

  17. FDT 2.0: Improving scalability of the fuzzy decision tree induction tool - integrating database storage.

    PubMed

    Durham, Erin-Elizabeth A; Yu, Xiaxia; Harrison, Robert W

    2014-12-01

    Effective machine-learning handles large datasets efficiently. One key feature of handling large data is the use of databases such as MySQL. The freeware fuzzy decision tree induction tool, FDT, is a scalable supervised-classification software tool implementing fuzzy decision trees. It is based on an optimized fuzzy ID3 (FID3) algorithm. FDT 2.0 improves upon FDT 1.0 by bridging the gap between data science and data engineering: it combines a robust decisioning tool with data retention for future decisions, so that the tool does not need to be recalibrated from scratch every time a new decision is required. In this paper we briefly review the analytical capabilities of the freeware FDT tool and its major features and functionalities; examples of large biological datasets from HIV, microRNAs and sRNAs are included. This work shows how to integrate fuzzy decision algorithms with modern database technology. In addition, we show that integrating the fuzzy decision tree induction tool with database storage allows for optimal user satisfaction in today's Data Analytics world.

  18. Risk approximation in decision making: approximative numeric abilities predict advantageous decisions under objective risk.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Silke M; Schiebener, Johannes; Delazer, Margarete; Brand, Matthias

    2018-01-22

    Many decision situations in everyday life involve mathematical considerations. In decisions under objective risk, i.e., when explicit numeric information is available, executive functions and abilities to handle exact numbers and ratios are predictors of objectively advantageous choices. Although still debated, exact numeric abilities, e.g., normative calculation skills, are assumed to be related to approximate number processing skills. The current study investigates the effects of approximative numeric abilities on decision making under objective risk. Participants (N = 153) performed a paradigm measuring number-comparison, quantity-estimation, risk-estimation, and decision-making skills on the basis of rapid dot comparisons. Additionally, a risky decision-making task with exact numeric information was administered, as well as tasks measuring executive functions and exact numeric abilities, e.g., mental calculation and ratio processing skills, were conducted. Approximative numeric abilities significantly predicted advantageous decision making, even beyond the effects of executive functions and exact numeric skills. Especially being able to make accurate risk estimations seemed to contribute to superior choices. We recommend approximation skills and approximate number processing to be subject of future investigations on decision making under risk.

  19. Skill Transfer and Virtual Training for IND Response Decision-Making: Models for Government-Industry Collaboration for the Development of Game-Based Training Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-01

    IND Response Decision-Making: Models for Government–Industry Collaboration for the Development of Game -Based Training Tools R.M. Seater C.E. Rose...Models for Government–Industry Collaboration for the Development of Game -Based Training Tools C.E. Rose A.S. Norige Group 44 R.M. Seater K.C...Report 1208 Lexington Massachusetts This page intentionally left blank. iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Game -based training tools, sometimes called “serious

  20. The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

    PubMed Central

    Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

    2013-01-01

    AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

  1. Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

    Treesearch

    Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

    2015-01-01

    In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

  2. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  3. Key stakeholders' perceptions of the acceptability and usefulness of a tablet-based tool to improve communication and shared decision making in ICUs.

    PubMed

    Ernecoff, Natalie C; Witteman, Holly O; Chon, Kristen; Chen, Yanquan Iris; Buddadhumaruk, Praewpannarai; Chiarchiaro, Jared; Shotsberger, Kaitlin J; Shields, Anne-Marie; Myers, Brad A; Hough, Catherine L; Carson, Shannon S; Lo, Bernard; Matthay, Michael A; Anderson, Wendy G; Peterson, Michael W; Steingrub, Jay S; Arnold, Robert M; White, Douglas B

    2016-06-01

    Although barriers to shared decision making in intensive care units are well documented, there are currently no easily scaled interventions to overcome these problems. We sought to assess stakeholders' perceptions of the acceptability, usefulness, and design suggestions for a tablet-based tool to support communication and shared decision making in ICUs. We conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews with 58 key stakeholders (30 surrogates and 28 ICU care providers). Interviews explored stakeholders' perceptions about the acceptability of a tablet-based tool to support communication and shared decision making, including the usefulness of modules focused on orienting families to the ICU, educating them about the surrogate's role, completing a question prompt list, eliciting patient values, educating about treatment options, eliciting perceptions about prognosis, and providing psychosocial support resources. The interviewer also elicited stakeholders' design suggestions for such a tool. We used constant comparative methods to identify key themes that arose during the interviews. Overall, 95% (55/58) of participants perceived the proposed tool to be acceptable, with 98% (57/58) of interviewees finding six or more of the seven content domains acceptable. Stakeholders identified several potential benefits of the tool including that it would help families prepare for the surrogate role and for family meetings as well as give surrogates time and a framework to think about the patient's values and treatment options. Key design suggestions included: conceptualize the tool as a supplement to rather than a substitute for surrogate-clinician communication; make the tool flexible with respect to how, where, and when surrogates can access the tool; incorporate interactive exercises; use video and narration to minimize the cognitive load of the intervention; and build an extremely simple user interface to maximize usefulness for individuals with low computer literacy. There is

  4. Electronic Risk Assessment System as an Appropriate Tool for the Prevention of Cancer: a Qualitative Study.

    PubMed

    Javan Amoli, Amir Hossein; Maserat, Elham; Safdari, Reza; Zali, Mohammad Reza

    2015-01-01

    Decision making modalities for screening for many cancer conditions and different stages have become increasingly complex. Computer-based risk assessment systems facilitate scheduling and decision making and support the delivery of cancer screening services. The aim of this article was to survey electronic risk assessment system as an appropriate tool for the prevention of cancer. A qualitative design was used involving 21 face-to-face interviews. Interviewing involved asking questions and getting answers from exclusive managers of cancer screening. Of the participants 6 were female and 15 were male, and ages ranged from 32 to 78 years. The study was based on a grounded theory approach and the tool was a semi- structured interview. Researchers studied 5 dimensions, comprising electronic guideline standards of colorectal cancer screening, work flow of clinical and genetic activities, pathways of colorectal cancer screening and functionality of computer based guidelines and barriers. Electronic guideline standards of colorectal cancer screening were described in the s3 categories of content standard, telecommunications and technical standards and nomenclature and classification standards. According to the participations' views, workflow and genetic pathways of colorectal cancer screening were identified. The study demonstrated an effective role of computer-guided consultation for screening management. Electronic based systems facilitate real-time decision making during a clinical interaction. Electronic pathways have been applied for clinical and genetic decision support, workflow management, update recommendation and resource estimates. A suitable technical and clinical infrastructure is an integral part of clinical practice guidline of screening. As a conclusion, it is recommended to consider the necessity of architecture assessment and also integration standards.

  5. An Integrated Web-Based Assessment Tool for Assessing Pesticide Exposure and Risks

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background/Question/Methods We have created an integrated web-based tool designed to estimate exposure doses and ecological risks under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Species Act. This involved combining a number of disparat...

  6. Climate Risk Management and Decision Support Tools for the Agriculture Sector in Lao PDR, Bangladesh, and Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allis, E. C.; Greene, A. M.; Cousin, R.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a comprehensive project for developing climate information and decision support / climate risk management tools in Lao PDR, Bangladesh and Indonesia. Mechanisms are developed for bringing the benefits of these tools to both policy makers and poor rural farmers, with the goal of enabling better management, at the farm level, of the risks associated with climate variability and change. The project comprises several interwoven threads, differentially applied in the different study regions. These include data management and quality control, development of seasonal forecast capabilities, use of dynamic cropping calendars and climate advisories, the development of longer-term climate information for both past and future and a weather index insurance component. Stakeholder engagement and capacity building served as reinforcing and complementary elements to all components. In this talk we will provide a project overview, show how the various components fit together and describe some lessons learned in this attempt to promote the uptake of actionable climate information from farmer to policy level. The applied research project was led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University with funding from the International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and in close collaboration with our regional partners at the Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia Pacific (at Bogor Agricultural University in Indonesia), Indonesia's National Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Lao PDR's National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), Laotian Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), WorldFish Center, Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD), and CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

  7. A decision support tool for appropriate glucose-lowering therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Ampudia-Blasco, F Javier; Benhamou, Pierre Yves; Charpentier, Guillaume; Consoli, Agostino; Diamant, Michaela; Gallwitz, Baptist; Khunti, Kamlesh; Mathieu, Chantal; Ridderstråle, Martin; Seufert, Jochen; Tack, Cees; Vilsbøll, Tina; Phan, Tra-Mi; Stoevelaar, Herman

    2015-03-01

    Optimal glucose-lowering therapy in type 2 diabetes mellitus requires a patient-specific approach. Although a good framework, current guidelines are insufficiently detailed to address the different phenotypes and individual needs of patients seen in daily practice. We developed a patient-specific decision support tool based on a systematic analysis of expert opinion. Based on the American Diabetes Association (ADA)/European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) 2012 position statement, a panel of 12 European experts rated the appropriateness (RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method) of treatment strategies for 930 clinical scenarios, which were permutations of clinical variables considered relevant to treatment choice. These included current treatment, hemoglobin A1c difference from individualized target, risk of hypoglycemia, body mass index, life expectancy, and comorbidities. Treatment options included addition of a second or third agent, drug switches, and replacement by monotherapies if the patient was metformin-intolerant. Treatment costs were not considered. Appropriateness (appropriate, inappropriate, uncertain) was based on the median score and expert agreement. The panel recommendations were embedded in an online decision support tool (DiaScope(®); Novo Nordisk Health Care AG, Zürich, Switzerland). Treatment appropriateness was associated with (combinations of) the patient variables mentioned above. As second-line agents, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors were considered appropriate in all scenarios, followed by glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (50%), insulins (33%), and sulfonylureas (25%), but not pioglitazone (0%). Ratings of third-line combinations followed a similar pattern. Disagreement was highest for regimens including pioglitazone, sulfonylureas, or insulins and was partly due to differences in panelists' opinions and in drug availability and reimbursement across European countries (although costs were disregarded in the rating process

  8. Impact of a decision-support tool on decision making at the district level in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In many countries, the responsibility for planning and delivery of health services is devolved to the subnational level. Health programs, however, often fall short of efficient use of data to inform decisions. As a result, programs are not as effective as they can be at meeting the health needs of the populations they serve. In Kenya, a decision-support tool, the District Health Profile (DHP) tool was developed to integrate data from health programs, primarily HIV, at the district level and to enable district health management teams to review and monitor program progress for specific health issues to make informed service delivery decisions. Methods Thirteen in-depth interviews were conducted with ten tool users and three non-users in six districts to qualitatively assess the process of implementing the tool and its effect on data-informed decision making at the district level. The factors that affected use or non-use of the tool were also investigated. Respondents were selected via convenience sample from among those that had been trained to use the DHP tool except for one user who was self-taught to use the tool. Selection criteria also included respondents from urban districts with significant resources as well as respondents from more remote, under-resourced districts. Results Findings from the in-depth interviews suggest that among those who used it, the DHP tool had a positive effect on data analysis, review, interpretation, and sharing at the district level. The automated function of the tool allowed for faster data sharing and immediate observation of trends that facilitated data-informed decision making. All respondents stated that the DHP tool assisted them to better target existing services in need of improvement and to plan future services, thus positively influencing program improvement. Conclusions This paper stresses the central role that a targeted decision-support tool can play in making data aggregation, analysis, and presentation

  9. KNOW ESSENTIALS: a tool for informed decisions in the absence of formal HTA systems.

    PubMed

    Mathew, Joseph L

    2011-04-01

    Most developing countries and resource-limited settings lack robust health technology assessment (HTA) systems. Because the development of locally relevant HTA is not immediately viable, and the extrapolation of external HTA is inappropriate, a new model for evaluating health technologies is required. The aim of this study was to describe the development and application of KNOW ESSENTIALS, a tool facilitating evidence-based decisions on health technologies by stakeholders in settings lacking formal HTA systems. Current HTA methodology was examined through literature search. Additional issues relevant to resource-limited settings, but not adequately addressed in current methodology, were identified through further literature search, appraisal of contextually relevant issues, discussion with healthcare professionals familiar with the local context, and personal experience. A set of thirteen elements important for evidence-based decisions was identified, selected and combined into a tool with the mnemonic KNOW ESSENTIALS. Detailed definitions for each element, coding for the elements, and a system to evaluate a given health technology using the tool were developed. Developing countries and resource-limited settings face several challenges to informed decision making. Models that are relevant and applicable in high-income countries are unlikely in such settings. KNOW ESSENTIALS is an alternative that facilitates evidence-based decision making by stakeholders without formal expertise in HTA. The tool could be particularly useful, as an interim measure, in healthcare systems that are developing HTA capacity. It could also be useful anywhere when rapid evidence-based decisions on health technologies are required.

  10. Development and implementation of a mobile device-based pediatric electronic decision support tool as part of a national practice standardization project.

    PubMed

    McCulloh, Russell J; Fouquet, Sarah D; Herigon, Joshua; Biondi, Eric A; Kennedy, Brandan; Kerns, Ellen; DePorre, Adrienne; Markham, Jessica L; Chan, Y Raymond; Nelson, Krista; Newland, Jason G

    2018-06-07

    Implementing evidence-based practices requires a multi-faceted approach. Electronic clinical decision support (ECDS) tools may encourage evidence-based practice adoption. However, data regarding the role of mobile ECDS tools in pediatrics is scant. Our objective is to describe the development, distribution, and usage patterns of a smartphone-based ECDS tool within a national practice standardization project. We developed a smartphone-based ECDS tool for use in the American Academy of Pediatrics, Value in Inpatient Pediatrics Network project entitled "Reducing Excessive Variation in the Infant Sepsis Evaluation (REVISE)." The mobile application (app), PedsGuide, was developed using evidence-based recommendations created by an interdisciplinary panel. App workflow and content were aligned with clinical benchmarks; app interface was adjusted after usability heuristic review. Usage patterns were measured using Google Analytics. Overall, 3805 users across the United States downloaded PedsGuide from December 1, 2016, to July 31, 2017, leading to 14 256 use sessions (average 3.75 sessions per user). Users engaged in 60 442 screen views, including 37 424 (61.8%) screen views that displayed content related to the REVISE clinical practice benchmarks, including hospital admission appropriateness (26.8%), length of hospitalization (14.6%), and diagnostic testing recommendations (17.0%). Median user touch depth was 5 [IQR 5]. We observed rapid dissemination and in-depth engagement with PedsGuide, demonstrating feasibility for using smartphone-based ECDS tools within national practice improvement projects. ECDS tools may prove valuable in future national practice standardization initiatives. Work should next focus on developing robust analytics to determine ECDS tools' impact on medical decision making, clinical practice, and health outcomes.

  11. Early decision framework for integrating sustainable risk management for complex remediation sites: Drivers, barriers, and performance metrics.

    PubMed

    Harclerode, Melissa A; Macbeth, Tamzen W; Miller, Michael E; Gurr, Christopher J; Myers, Teri S

    2016-12-15

    As the environmental remediation industry matures, remaining sites often have significant underlying technical challenges and financial constraints. More often than not, significant remediation efforts at these "complex" sites have not achieved stringent, promulgated cleanup goals. Decisions then have to be made about whether and how to commit additional resources towards achieving those goals, which are often not achievable nor required to protect receptors. Guidance on cleanup approaches focused on evaluating and managing site-specific conditions and risks, rather than uniformly meeting contaminant cleanup criteria in all media, is available to aid in this decision. Although these risk-based cleanup approaches, such as alternative endpoints and adaptive management strategies, have been developed, they are under-utilized due to environmental, socio-economic, and risk perception barriers. Also, these approaches are usually implemented late in the project life cycle after unsuccessful remedial attempts to achieve stringent cleanup criteria. In this article, we address these barriers by developing an early decision framework to identify if site characteristics support sustainable risk management, and develop performance metrics and tools to evaluate and implement successful risk-based cleanup approaches. In addition, we address uncertainty and risk perception challenges by aligning risk-based cleanup approaches with the concepts of risk management and sustainable remediation. This approach was developed in the context of lessons learned from implementing remediation at complex sites, but as a framework can, and should, be applied to all sites undergoing remediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Including values in evidence-based policy making for breast screening: An empirically grounded tool to assist expert decision makers.

    PubMed

    Parker, Lisa

    2017-07-01

    Values are an important part of evidence-based decision making for health policy: they guide the type of evidence that is collected, how it is interpreted, and how important the conclusions are considered to be. Experts in breast screening (including clinicians, researchers, consumer advocates and senior administrators) hold differing values in relation to what is important in breast screening policy and practice, and committees may find it difficult to incorporate the complexity and variety of values into policy decisions. The decision making tool provided here is intended to assist with this process. The tool is modified from more general frameworks that are intended to assist with ethical decision making in public health, and informed by data drawn from previous empirical studies on values amongst Australian breast screening experts. It provides a structured format for breast screening committees to consider and discuss the values of themselves and others, suggests relevant topics for further inquiry and highlights areas of need for future research into the values of the public. It enables committees to publicly explain and justify their decisions with reference to values, improving transparency and accountability. It is intended to act alongside practices that seek to accommodate the values of individual women in the informed decision making process for personal decision making about participation in breast screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. System Sketch: A Visualization Tool to Improve Community Decision Making

    EPA Science Inventory

    Making decisions in coastal and estuarine management requires a comprehensive understanding of the linkages between environmental, social, and economic systems. SystemSketch is a web-based scoping tool designed to assist resource managers in characterizing their systems, explorin...

  14. Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making: Frequently Asked Questions

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    General concepts and principles of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), describe how PRA can improve the bases of Agency decisions, and provide illustrations of how PRA has been used in risk estimation and in describing the uncertainty in decision making.

  15. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) Approach to Reducing Risk of Flooding and Water Pollution in Farmed Landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hewett, Caspar J. M.; Quinn, Paul; Wilkinson, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Intense farming plays a key role in contributing to problems such as increased flood risk, soil erosion and poor water quality. This means that there is great potential for agricultural practitioners to play a major part in reducing multiple risks through better land-use management. Greater understanding by farmers, land managers, practitioners and policy-makers of the ways in which farmed landscapes contribute to risks and the ways in which those risks might be mitigated can be an essential component in improving practice. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) approach involves the development of a range of visualization and communication tools to help compare the risks associated with different farming practices and explore options to manage runoff. DSMs are simple decision support systems intended for use by the non-expert which combine expert hydrological evidence with local knowledge of runoff patterns. They are developed through direct engagement with stakeholders, ensuring that the examples and language used makes sense to end-users. A key element of the tools is that they show the current conditions of the land and describe extremes of land-use management within a hydrological and agricultural land-management context. The tools include conceptual models of a series of pre-determined runoff scenarios, providing the end-user with a variety of potential land management practices and runoff management options. Visual examples of different farming practices are used to illustrate the impact of good and bad practice on specific problems such as nutrient export or risk of flooding. These show both how current conditions cause problems downstream and how systems are vulnerable to changes in climate and land-use intensification. The level of risk associated with a particular land management option is represented by a mapping on a two- or three-dimensional matrix. Interactive spreadsheet-based tools are developed in which multiple questions allow the user to explore

  16. Use of Influenza Risk Assessment Tool for Prepandemic Preparedness

    PubMed Central

    Trock, Susan C.

    2018-01-01

    In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began to develop an Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) to methodically capture and assess information relating to influenza A viruses not currently circulating among humans. The IRAT uses a multiattribute, additive model to generate a summary risk score for each virus. Although the IRAT is not intended to predict the next pandemic influenza A virus, it has provided input into prepandemic preparedness decisions. PMID:29460739

  17. Evidence-based decision making and asthma in the internet age: the tools of the trade.

    PubMed

    Jadad, A R

    2002-01-01

    At the dawn of the Information Age, the practice of evidence-based decision making (EBDM) is still hindered by many important barriers related to the decision makers, to the evidence per se or to the health system. Some of these barriers, particularly those related to the distillation, dissemination and packaging of research evidence, could be overcome by recent and ongoing developments in portable/wearable computers, internet appliances, multimedia and wireless broadband internet traffic. This article describes specific EBDM-related tools, with emphasis on internet-enabled "how to" books; and tools to improve the quality of reporting research, to formulate questions; to search for evidence; to access journals, systematic reviews and guidelines; to interact with organizations promoting EBDM; and to tailor evidence to individual cases. However, thinking that all barriers to the practice of EBDM could be solved by fancy information technology is naïve. Barriers related to the generation, interpretation, integration and use of the evidence demand more complex and perhaps unfeasible solutions, as overcoming them will require substantial changes in the structure of the health system, in the politics of science and in the way in which humans think and behave.

  18. Heat and Health in a Changing Climate: Building a Decision Support Tool for California Public Health Officials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinberg, N.

    2017-12-01

    There is considerable interest in overlaying climate projections with social vulnerability maps as a mechanism for targeting community adaptation efforts. Yet the identification of relevant factors for adaptation- and resilience-based decisions remain a challenge. Our findings show that successful adaptation interventions are more likely when factors are grouped and spatially represented. By designing a decision-support tool that is focused on informing long-term planning to mitigate the public health impacts of extreme heat, communities can more easily integrate climate, land use, and population characteristics into local planning processes. The ability to compare risks and potential health impacts across census tracts may also position local practitioners to leverage scarce resources. This presentation will discuss the information gaps identified by planners and public health practitioners throughout California and illustrate the spatial variations of key health risk factors.

  19. FRAT-up, a Web-based fall-risk assessment tool for elderly people living in the community.

    PubMed

    Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chesani, Federico; Chiari, Lorenzo

    2015-02-18

    About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject's fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer

  20. FRAT-up, a Web-based Fall-Risk Assessment Tool for Elderly People Living in the Community

    PubMed Central

    Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chiari, Lorenzo

    2015-01-01

    Background About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. Objective The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. Methods FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject’s fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. Results The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the

  1. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: PUBLISHED REPORT

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL-CIN-1351A Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. EPA/600/R-01/104 (NTIS PB2002-102119). Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often ...

  2. Receptor-specific modulation of risk-based decision making by nucleus accumbens dopamine.

    PubMed

    Stopper, Colin M; Khayambashi, Shahin; Floresco, Stan B

    2013-04-01

    The nucleus accumbens (NAc) serves as an integral node within cortico-limbic circuitry that regulates various forms of cost-benefit decision making. The dopamine (DA) system has also been implicated in enabling organisms to overcome a variety of costs to obtain more valuable rewards. However, it remains unclear how DA activity within the NAc may regulate decision making involving reward uncertainty. This study investigated the contribution of different DA receptor subtypes in the NAc to risk-based decision making, assessed with a probabilistic discounting task. In well-trained rats, D1 receptor blockade with SCH 23,390 decreased preference for larger, uncertain rewards, which was associated with enhanced negative-feedback sensitivity (ie, an increased tendency to select a smaller/certain option after an unrewarded risky choice). Treatment with a D1 agonist (SKF 81,297) optimized decision making, increasing choice of the risky option when reward probability was high, and decreasing preference under low probability conditions. In stark contrast, neither blockade of NAc D2 receptors with eticlopride, nor stimulation of these receptors with quinpirole or bromocriptine influenced risky choice. In comparison, infusion of the D3-preferring agonist PD 128,907 decreased reward sensitivity and risky choice. Collectively, these results show that mesoaccumbens DA refines risk-reward decision biases via dissociable mechanisms recruiting D1 and D3, but not D2 receptors. D1 receptor activity mitigates the effect of reward omissions on subsequent choices to promote selection of reward options that may have greater long-term utility, whereas excessive D3 receptor activity blunts the impact that larger/uncertain rewards have in promoting riskier choices.

  3. Rational risk-based decision support for drinking water well managers by optimized monitoring designs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enzenhöfer, R.; Geiges, A.; Nowak, W.

    2011-12-01

    Advection-based well-head protection zones are commonly used to manage the contamination risk of drinking water wells. Considering the insufficient knowledge about hazards and transport properties within the catchment, current Water Safety Plans recommend that catchment managers and stakeholders know, control and monitor all possible hazards within the catchments and perform rational risk-based decisions. Our goal is to supply catchment managers with the required probabilistic risk information, and to generate tools that allow for optimal and rational allocation of resources between improved monitoring versus extended safety margins and risk mitigation measures. To support risk managers with the indispensable information, we address the epistemic uncertainty of advective-dispersive solute transport and well vulnerability (Enzenhoefer et al., 2011) within a stochastic simulation framework. Our framework can separate between uncertainty of contaminant location and actual dilution of peak concentrations by resolving heterogeneity with high-resolution Monte-Carlo simulation. To keep computational costs low, we solve the reverse temporal moment transport equation. Only in post-processing, we recover the time-dependent solute breakthrough curves and the deduced well vulnerability criteria from temporal moments by non-linear optimization. Our first step towards optimal risk management is optimal positioning of sampling locations and optimal choice of data types to reduce best the epistemic prediction uncertainty for well-head delineation, using the cross-bred Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator (CLUE, Leube et al., 2011) for optimal sampling design. Better monitoring leads to more reliable and realistic protection zones and thus helps catchment managers to better justify smaller, yet conservative safety margins. In order to allow an optimal choice in sampling strategies, we compare the trade-off in monitoring versus the delineation costs by accounting for ill

  4. Ontology based decision system for breast cancer diagnosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trabelsi Ben Ameur, Soumaya; Cloppet, Florence; Wendling, Laurent; Sellami, Dorra

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we focus on analysis and diagnosis of breast masses inspired by expert concepts and rules. Accordingly, a Bag of Words is built based on the ontology of breast cancer diagnosis, accurately described in the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System. To fill the gap between low level knowledge and expert concepts, a semantic annotation is developed using a machine learning tool. Then, breast masses are classified into benign or malignant according to expert rules implicitly modeled with a set of classifiers (KNN, ANN, SVM and Decision Tree). This semantic context of analysis offers a frame where we can include external factors and other meta-knowledge such as patient risk factors as well as exploiting more than one modality. Based on MRI and DECEDM modalities, our developed system leads a recognition rate of 99.7% with Decision Tree where an improvement of 24.7 % is obtained owing to semantic analysis.

  5. Using an Atrial Fibrillation Decision Support Tool for Thromboprophylaxis in Atrial Fibrillation: Effect of Sex and Age.

    PubMed

    Eckman, Mark H; Lip, Gregory Y H; Wise, Ruth E; Speer, Barbara; Sullivan, Megan; Walker, Nita; Kissela, Brett; Flaherty, Matthew L; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Baker, Peter; Ireton, Robert; Hoskins, Dave; Harnett, Brett M; Aguilar, Carlos; Leonard, Anthony; Arduser, Lora; Steen, Dylan; Costea, Alexandru; Kues, John

    2016-05-01

    To assess the appropriateness of oral anticoagulant therapy (OAT) in women and elderly adults, looking for patterns of undertreatment or unnecessary treatment. Retrospective cohort study. Primary care practices of an academic healthcare system. Adults (aged 28-93) with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) seen between March 2013 and February 2014 (N = 1,585). Treatment recommendations were made using an AF decision support tool (AFDST) based on projections of quality-adjusted life expectancy calculated using a decision analytical model that integrates individual-specific risk factors for stroke and hemorrhage. Treatment was discordant from AFDST-recommended treatment in 45% (326/725) of women and 39% (338/860) of men (P = .02). Although current treatment was discordant from recommended in 35% (89/258) of participants aged 85 and older and in 43% (575/1,328) of those younger than 85 (P = .01), many undertreated elderly adults were receiving aspirin as the sole antithrombotic agent. Physicians should understand that female sex is a significant risk factor for AF-related stroke and incorporate this into decision-making about thromboprophylaxis. Treating older adults with aspirin instead of OAT exposes them to significant risk of bleeding with little to no reduction in AF-related stroke risk. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

  6. Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

    2013-12-01

    Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

  7. Invited review: Helping dairy farmers to improve economic performance utilizing data-driving decision support tools.

    PubMed

    Cabrera, V E

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this review paper is to describe the development and application of a suite of more than 40 computerized dairy farm decision support tools contained at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW) Dairy Management website http://DairyMGT.info. These data-driven decision support tools are aimed to help dairy farmers improve their decision-making, environmental stewardship and economic performance. Dairy farm systems are highly dynamic in which changing market conditions and prices, evolving policies and environmental restrictions together with every time more variable climate conditions determine performance. Dairy farm systems are also highly integrated with heavily interrelated components such as the dairy herd, soils, crops, weather and management. Under these premises, it is critical to evaluate a dairy farm following a dynamic integrated system approach. For this approach, it is crucial to use meaningful data records, which are every time more available. These data records should be used within decision support tools for optimal decision-making and economic performance. Decision support tools in the UW-Dairy Management website (http://DairyMGT.info) had been developed using combination and adaptation of multiple methods together with empirical techniques always with the primary goal for these tools to be: (1) highly user-friendly, (2) using the latest software and computer technologies, (3) farm and user specific, (4) grounded on the best scientific information available, (5) remaining relevant throughout time and (6) providing fast, concrete and simple answers to complex farmers' questions. DairyMGT.info is a translational innovative research website in various areas of dairy farm management that include nutrition, reproduction, calf and heifer management, replacement, price risk and environment. This paper discusses the development and application of 20 selected (http://DairyMGT.info) decision support tools.

  8. Autonomous Task Management and Decision Support Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burian, Barbara

    2017-01-01

    For some time aircraft manufacturers and researchers have been pursuing mechanisms for reducing crew workload and providing better decision support to the pilots, especially during non-normal situations. Some previous attempts to develop task managers or pilot decision support tools have not resulted in robust and fully functional systems. However, the increasing sophistication of sensors and automated reasoners, and the exponential surge in the amount of digital data that is now available create a ripe environment for the development of a robust, dynamic, task manager and decision support tool that is context sensitive and integrates information from a wide array of on-board and off aircraft sourcesa tool that monitors systems and the overall flight situation, anticipates information needs, prioritizes tasks appropriately, keeps pilots well informed, and is nimble and able to adapt to changing circumstances. This presentation will discuss the many significant challenges and issues associated with the development and functionality of such a system for use on the aircraft flight deck.

  9. Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

    2017-12-01

    Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean

  10. A Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A.; Egeghy, Peter P.; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A.

    2013-01-01

    The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical’s life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

  11. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

    PubMed

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  12. A Web-based Decision Tool to Estimate Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Risk in Emergency Department Patients

    PubMed Central

    Manella, Haley; Sivasankar, Shyam; Perry, Jeffrey J; Pfeil, Sam; Senyak, Josh; Shachter, Ross

    2018-01-01

    Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) from a leaking aneurysm is a neurological emergency. SAH patients often present with headache—a common chief complaint among emergency department patients. If unrecognized, 70% of the patients with re-bleeds die and one third are left with neurological deficits. Therefore, it is critical to distinguish the signs and symptoms of SAH from benign causes of headache, perform the appropriate diagnostic tests and treat in a timely manner in order to reduce the disability and mortality associated with this condition. In patients with suspected SAH, traditional diagnostic strategies in the emergency department employ non-contrast computed tomography (CT) of the brain to detect blood in the subarachnoid space followed by lumbar puncture if there is a high clinical probability of aneurysmal bleed without any evidence of blood on CT scan. While the older generation CT scanners were less sensitive to blood detection in the subarachnoid space, recent advances in CT imaging have resulted in sensitivity approaching 100% for detection of blood in the subarachnoid space specifically within six hours of symptom onset. Therefore, the benefit of lumbar puncture is controversial when performed within the first six hours of symptom onset. Despite this, lumbar puncture is still commonly performed in the emergency department, exposing patients to unnecessary procedural risks. The objective of this research study is to develop a web-based risk calculator that estimates the risk of SAH based on time to emergency department presentation after symptom onset, physical findings and imaging characteristics with the goal of reducing unnecessary lumbar punctures in the emergency department. In this technical report, we describe the prototype calculator, the mathematical basis of the model and provide a link to the web-based prototype. In the future, we will refine the prototype, make it user-friendly to physicians, staff and patients and study its benefits in the

  13. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    PubMed

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  14. Chronic alcohol intake during adolescence, but not adulthood, promotes persistent deficits in risk-based decision making

    PubMed Central

    Schindler, Abigail G; Tsutsui, Kimberly T; Clark, Jeremy J

    2014-01-01

    Background Adolescent alcohol use is a major public health concern and is strongly correlated with the development of alcohol abuse problems in adulthood. Adolescence is characterized by maturation and remodeling of brain regions implicated in decision making and therefore may be uniquely vulnerable to environmental insults such as alcohol exposure. We have previously demonstrated that voluntary alcohol consumption in adolescence results in maladaptive risk-based decision making in adulthood. However, it is unclear whether this effect on risk-based decision making can be attributed to chronic alcohol use in general or to a selective effect of alcohol use during the adolescent period. Methods Ethanol was presented to adolescent (PND 30–49) and adult rats (PND 80–99) for 20 days, either 24h or 1h/day, in a gel matrix consisting of distilled water, gelatin, Polycose (10%), and ethanol (10%). The 24h time course of ethanol intake was measured and compared between adolescent and adult animals. Following 20 days of withdrawal from ethanol, we assessed risk-based decision making with a concurrent instrumental probability-discounting task. Blood ethanol concentrations (BECs) were taken from trunk blood and assessed using the Analox micro-stat GM7 in separate groups of animals at different time points. Results Unlike animals exposed to ethanol during adolescence, animals exposed to alcohol during adulthood did not display differences in risk preference compared to controls. Adolescent and adult rats displayed similar ethanol intake levels and patterns when given either 24h or 1h access/day. In addition, while both groups reached significant BEC levels we failed to find a difference between adult and adolescent animals. Conclusions Here we show that adolescent, but not adult, ethanol intake leads to a persistent increase in risk preference which cannot be attributed to differences in intake levels or BECs attained. Our findings support previous work implicating

  15. Chronic alcohol intake during adolescence, but not adulthood, promotes persistent deficits in risk-based decision making.

    PubMed

    Schindler, Abigail G; Tsutsui, Kimberly T; Clark, Jeremy J

    2014-06-01

    Adolescent alcohol use is a major public health concern and is strongly correlated with the development of alcohol abuse problems in adulthood. Adolescence is characterized by maturation and remodeling of brain regions implicated in decision making and therefore may be uniquely vulnerable to environmental insults such as alcohol exposure. We have previously demonstrated that voluntary alcohol consumption in adolescence results in maladaptive risk-based decision making in adulthood. However, it is unclear whether this effect on risk-based decision making can be attributed to chronic alcohol use in general or to a selective effect of alcohol use during the adolescent period. Ethanol (EtOH) was presented to adolescent (postnatal day [PND] 30 to 49) and adult rats (PND 80 to 99) for 20 days, either 24 hours or 1 h/d, in a gel matrix consisting of distilled water, gelatin, polycose (10%), and EtOH (10%). The 24-hour time course of EtOH intake was measured and compared between adolescent and adult animals. Following 20 days of withdrawal from EtOH, we assessed risk-based decision making with a concurrent instrumental probability-discounting task. Blood EtOH concentrations (BECs) were taken from trunk blood and assessed using the Analox micro-stat GM7 in separate groups of animals at different time points. Unlike animals exposed to EtOH during adolescence, animals exposed to alcohol during adulthood did not display differences in risk preference compared to controls. Adolescent and adult rats displayed similar EtOH intake levels and patterns when given either 24- or 1-hour access per day. In addition, while both groups reached significant BEC levels, we failed to find a difference between adult and adolescent animals. Here, we show that adolescent, but not adult, EtOH intake leads to a persistent increase in risk preference which cannot be attributed to differences in intake levels or BECs attained. Our findings support previous work implicating adolescence as a time

  16. Virtual Beach: Decision Support Tools for Beach Pathogen Prediction

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Virtual Beach Managers Tool (VB) is decision-making software developed to help local beach managers make decisions as to when beaches should be closed due to predicted high levels of water borne pathogens. The tool is being developed under the umbrella of EPA's Advanced Monit...

  17. A decision support tool for selecting the optimal sewage sludge treatment.

    PubMed

    Turunen, Ville; Sorvari, Jaana; Mikola, Anna

    2018-02-01

    Sewage sludge contains significant amounts of resources, such as nutrients and organic matter. At the same time, the organic contaminants (OC) found in sewage sludge are of growing concern. Consequently, in many European countries incineration is currently favored over recycling in agriculture. This study presents a Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT)-based decision support tool (DST) for facilitating sludge treatment decisions. Essential decision criteria were recognized and prioritized, i.e., weighted, by experts from water utilities. Since the fate of organic contaminants was in focus, a simple scoring method was developed to take into account their environmental risks. The final DST assigns each sludge treatment method a preference score expressing its superiority compared to alternative methods. The DST was validated by testing it with data from two Finnish municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). The validation results of the first case study preferred sludge pyrolysis (preference score: 0.629) to other alternatives: composting and incineration (score 0.580, and 0.484 respectively). The preference scores were influenced by WWTP dependent factors, i.e., the operating environment and the weighting of the criteria. A lack of data emerged as the main practical limitation. Therefore, not all of the relevant criteria could be included in the value tree. More data are needed on the effects of treatment methods on the availability of nutrients, the quality of organic matter and sludge-borne OCs. Despite these shortcomings, the DST proved useful and adaptable in decision-making. It can also help achieve a more transparent, understandable and comprehensive decision-making process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Providing guidance for genomics-based cancer treatment decisions: insights from stakeholder engagement for post-prostatectomy radiation therapy.

    PubMed

    Abe, James; Lobo, Jennifer M; Trifiletti, Daniel M; Showalter, Timothy N

    2017-08-24

    Despite the emergence of genomics-based risk prediction tools in oncology, there is not yet an established framework for communication of test results to cancer patients to support shared decision-making. We report findings from a stakeholder engagement program that aimed to develop a framework for using Markov models with individualized model inputs, including genomics-based estimates of cancer recurrence probability, to generate personalized decision aids for prostate cancer patients faced with radiation therapy treatment decisions after prostatectomy. We engaged a total of 22 stakeholders, including: prostate cancer patients, urological surgeons, radiation oncologists, genomic testing industry representatives, and biomedical informatics faculty. Slides were at each meeting to provide background information regarding the analytical framework. Participants were invited to provide feedback during the meeting, including revising the overall project aims. Stakeholder meeting content was reviewed and summarized by stakeholder group and by theme. The majority of stakeholder suggestions focused on aspects of decision aid design and formatting. Stakeholders were enthusiastic about the potential value of using decision analysis modeling with personalized model inputs for cancer recurrence risk, as well as competing risks from age and comorbidities, to generate a patient-centered tool to assist decision-making. Stakeholders did not view privacy considerations as a major barrier to the proposed decision aid program. A common theme was that decision aids should be portable across multiple platforms (electronic and paper), should allow for interaction by the user to adjust model inputs iteratively, and available to patients both before and during consult appointments. Emphasis was placed on the challenge of explaining the model's composite result of quality-adjusted life years. A range of stakeholders provided valuable insights regarding the design of a personalized decision

  19. Mental illness, criminal risk factors and parole release decisions.

    PubMed

    Matejkowski, Jason; Draine, Jeffrey; Solomon, Phyllis; Salzer, Mark S

    2011-01-01

    Research has not examined whether higher rates of parole denial among inmates with mental illness (MI) are the result of the increased presence of criminal risk factors among this population. Employing a representative sample of inmates with (n  =  219) and without (n  =  184) MI receiving parole release decisions in 2007, this study tested whether the central eight risk factors for recidivism considered in parole release decisions intervened in the relationship between MI and parole release. MI was associated with possession of a substance use disorder, antisocial personality disorder and violent charges while incarcerated; however, these factors were not related to release decisions. MI was found to have neither a direct nor an indirect effect on release decisions. While results indicate that release decisions appear, to some extent, to be evidence-based, they also suggest considerable discretion is being implemented by parole board members in release decisions above and beyond consideration of criminal risk factors. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Development and Validation of a Primary Care-Based Family Health History and Decision Support Program (MeTree)

    PubMed Central

    Orlando, Lori A.; Buchanan, Adam H.; Hahn, Susan E.; Christianson, Carol A.; Powell, Karen P.; Skinner, Celette Sugg; Chesnut, Blair; Blach, Colette; Due, Barbara; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S.; Henrich, Vincent C.

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Family health history is a strong predictor of disease risk. To reduce the morbidity and mortality of many chronic diseases, risk-stratified evidence-based guidelines strongly encourage the collection and synthesis of family health history to guide selection of primary prevention strategies. However, the collection and synthesis of such information is not well integrated into clinical practice. To address barriers to collection and use of family health histories, the Genomedical Connection developed and validated MeTree, a Web-based, patient-facing family health history collection and clinical decision support tool. MeTree is designed for integration into primary care practices as part of the genomic medicine model for primary care. METHODS We describe the guiding principles, operational characteristics, algorithm development, and coding used to develop MeTree. Validation was performed through stakeholder cognitive interviewing, a genetic counseling pilot program, and clinical practice pilot programs in 2 community-based primary care clinics. RESULTS Stakeholder feedback resulted in changes to MeTree’s interface and changes to the phrasing of clinical decision support documents. The pilot studies resulted in the identification and correction of coding errors and the reformatting of clinical decision support documents. MeTree’s strengths in comparison with other tools are its seamless integration into clinical practice and its provision of action-oriented recommendations guided by providers’ needs. LIMITATIONS The tool was validated in a small cohort. CONCLUSION MeTree can be integrated into primary care practices to help providers collect and synthesize family health history information from patients with the goal of improving adherence to risk-stratified evidence-based guidelines. PMID:24044145

  1. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporatesmore » deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.« less

  2. Advances on a Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization.

    PubMed

    Wood, Matthew D; Plourde, Kenton; Larkin, Sabrina; Egeghy, Peter P; Williams, Antony J; Zemba, Valerie; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A

    2018-05-11

    The volume and variety of manufactured chemicals is increasing, although little is known about the risks associated with the frequency and extent of human exposure to most chemicals. The EPA and the recent signing of the Lautenberg Act have both signaled the need for high-throughput methods to characterize and screen chemicals based on exposure potential, such that more comprehensive toxicity research can be informed. Prior work of Mitchell et al. using multicriteria decision analysis tools to prioritize chemicals for further research is enhanced here, resulting in a high-level chemical prioritization tool for risk-based screening. Reliable exposure information is a key gap in currently available engineering analytics to support predictive environmental and health risk assessments. An elicitation with 32 experts informed relative prioritization of risks from chemical properties and human use factors, and the values for each chemical associated with each metric were approximated with data from EPA's CP_CAT database. Three different versions of the model were evaluated using distinct weight profiles, resulting in three different ranked chemical prioritizations with only a small degree of variation across weight profiles. Future work will aim to include greater input from human factors experts and better define qualitative metrics. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Evaluating online diagnostic decision support tools for the clinical setting.

    PubMed

    Pryor, Marie; White, David; Potter, Bronwyn; Traill, Roger

    2012-01-01

    Clinical decision support tools available at the point of care are an effective adjunct to support clinicians to make clinical decisions and improve patient outcomes. We developed a methodology and applied it to evaluate commercially available online clinical diagnostic decision support (DDS) tools for use at the point of care. We identified 11 commercially available DDS tools and assessed these against an evaluation instrument that included 6 categories; general information, content, quality control, search, clinical results and other features. We developed diagnostically challenging clinical case scenarios based on real patient experience that were commonly missed by junior medical staff. The evaluation was divided into 2 phases; an initial evaluation of all identified and accessible DDS tools conducted by the Clinical Information Access Portal (CIAP) team and a second phase that further assessed the top 3 tools identified in the initial evaluation phase. An evaluation panel consisting of senior and junior medical clinicians from NSW Health conducted the second phase. Of the eleven tools that were assessed against the evaluation instrument only 4 tools completely met the DDS definition that was adopted for this evaluation and were able to produce a differential diagnosis. From the initial phase of the evaluation 4 DDS tools scored 70% or more (maximum score 96%) for the content category, 8 tools scored 65% or more (maximum 100%) for the quality control category, 5 tools scored 65% or more (maximum 94%) for the search category, and 4 tools score 70% or more (maximum 81%) for the clinical results category. The second phase of the evaluation was focused on assessing diagnostic accuracy for the top 3 tools identified in the initial phase. Best Practice ranked highest overall against the 6 clinical case scenarios used. Overall the differentiating factor between the top 3 DDS tools was determined by diagnostic accuracy ranking, ease of use and the confidence and

  4. Automation of a DXA-based finite element tool for clinical assessment of hip fracture risk.

    PubMed

    Luo, Yunhua; Ahmed, Sharif; Leslie, William D

    2018-03-01

    Finite element analysis of medical images is a promising tool for assessing hip fracture risk. Although a number of finite element models have been developed for this purpose, none of them have been routinely used in clinic. The main reason is that the computer programs that implement the finite element models have not been completely automated, and heavy training is required before clinicians can effectively use them. By using information embedded in clinical dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), we completely automated a DXA-based finite element (FE) model that we previously developed for predicting hip fracture risk. The automated FE tool can be run as a standalone computer program with the subject's raw hip DXA image as input. The automated FE tool had greatly improved short-term precision compared with the semi-automated version. To validate the automated FE tool, a clinical cohort consisting of 100 prior hip fracture cases and 300 matched controls was obtained from a local community clinical center. Both the automated FE tool and femoral bone mineral density (BMD) were applied to discriminate the fracture cases from the controls. Femoral BMD is the gold standard reference recommended by the World Health Organization for screening osteoporosis and for assessing hip fracture risk. The accuracy was measured by the area under ROC curve (AUC) and odds ratio (OR). Compared with femoral BMD (AUC = 0.71, OR = 2.07), the automated FE tool had a considerably improved accuracy (AUC = 0.78, OR = 2.61 at the trochanter). This work made a large step toward applying our DXA-based FE model as a routine clinical tool for the assessment of hip fracture risk. Furthermore, the automated computer program can be embedded into a web-site as an internet application. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. A new spatial multi-criteria decision support tool for site selection for implementation of managed aquifer recharge.

    PubMed

    Rahman, M Azizur; Rusteberg, Bernd; Gogu, R C; Lobo Ferreira, J P; Sauter, Martin

    2012-05-30

    This study reports the development of a new spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (SMCDA) software tool for selecting suitable sites for Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) systems. The new SMCDA software tool functions based on the combination of existing multi-criteria evaluation methods with modern decision analysis techniques. More specifically, non-compensatory screening, criteria standardization and weighting, and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) have been combined with Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). This SMCDA tool may be implemented with a wide range of decision maker's preferences. The tool's user-friendly interface helps guide the decision maker through the sequential steps for site selection, those steps namely being constraint mapping, criteria hierarchy, criteria standardization and weighting, and criteria overlay. The tool offers some predetermined default criteria and standard methods to increase the trade-off between ease-of-use and efficiency. Integrated into ArcGIS, the tool has the advantage of using GIS tools for spatial analysis, and herein data may be processed and displayed. The tool is non-site specific, adaptive, and comprehensive, and may be applied to any type of site-selection problem. For demonstrating the robustness of the new tool, a case study was planned and executed at Algarve Region, Portugal. The efficiency of the SMCDA tool in the decision making process for selecting suitable sites for MAR was also demonstrated. Specific aspects of the tool such as built-in default criteria, explicit decision steps, and flexibility in choosing different options were key features, which benefited the study. The new SMCDA tool can be augmented by groundwater flow and transport modeling so as to achieve a more comprehensive approach to the selection process for the best locations of the MAR infiltration basins, as well as the locations of recovery wells and areas of groundwater protection. The new spatial

  6. Computerized Decision Aids for Shared Decision Making in Serious Illness: Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Staszewska, Anna; Zaki, Pearl; Lee, Joon

    2017-10-06

    Shared decision making (SDM) is important in achieving patient-centered care. SDM tools such as decision aids are intended to inform the patient. When used to assist in decision making between treatments, decision aids have been shown to reduce decisional conflict, increase ease of decision making, and increase modification of previous decisions. The purpose of this systematic review is to assess the impact of computerized decision aids on patient-centered outcomes related to SDM for seriously ill patients. PubMed and Scopus databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that assessed the impact of computerized decision aids on patient-centered outcomes and SDM in serious illness. Six RCTs were identified and data were extracted on study population, design, and results. Risk of bias was assessed by a modified Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for Quality Assessment of Randomized Controlled Trials. Six RCTs tested decision tools in varying serious illnesses. Three studies compared different computerized decision aids against each other and a control. All but one study demonstrated improvement in at least one patient-centered outcome. Computerized decision tools may reduce unnecessary treatment in patients with low disease severity in comparison with informational pamphlets. Additionally, electronic health record (EHR) portals may provide the opportunity to manage care from the home for individuals affected by illness. The quality of decision aids is of great importance. Furthermore, satisfaction with the use of tools is associated with increased patient satisfaction and reduced decisional conflict. Finally, patients may benefit from computerized decision tools without the need for increased physician involvement. Most computerized decision aids improved at least one patient-centered outcome. All RCTs identified were at a High Risk of Bias or Unclear Risk of Bias. Effort should be made to improve the quality of RCTs testing SDM aids in serious

  7. Assessing Sustainability of Coral Reef Ecosystem Services using a Spatially-Explicit Decision Support Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    Forecasting and communicating the potential outcomes of decision options requires support tools that aid in evaluating alternative scenarios in a user-friendly context and that highlight variables relevant to the decision options and valuable stakeholders. Envision is a GIS-base...

  8. Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; McCright, Aaron M.

    2016-01-01

    Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

  9. Suicide Risk Screening Tools and the Youth Population.

    PubMed

    Patterson, Sharon

    2016-08-01

    The use of suicide risk screening tools is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to suicide risk assessment. Since nurses frequently spend more time with patients than any other healthcare professional, they are in key positions to detect and prevent suicidal behavior in youth. To inform nurses about suicide risk screening tools for the youth population. Suicide risk screening tools are research-based standardized instruments that are used to identify people who may be at risk for suicide. A literature search was performed using the Athabasca University Library Resource, the databases of the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar. Nurses are cautioned to utilize suicide risk screening tools as only part of the suicide risk assessment in youth populations and avoid the danger of relying on tools that may result in a blind application of evidence to the detriment of clinical experience and judgement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. A Decision Support Tool for Appropriate Glucose-Lowering Therapy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Benhamou, Pierre Yves; Charpentier, Guillaume; Consoli, Agostino; Diamant, Michaela; Gallwitz, Baptist; Khunti, Kamlesh; Mathieu, Chantal; Ridderstråle, Martin; Seufert, Jochen; Tack, Cees; Vilsbøll, Tina; Phan, Tra-Mi; Stoevelaar, Herman

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background: Optimal glucose-lowering therapy in type 2 diabetes mellitus requires a patient-specific approach. Although a good framework, current guidelines are insufficiently detailed to address the different phenotypes and individual needs of patients seen in daily practice. We developed a patient-specific decision support tool based on a systematic analysis of expert opinion. Materials and Methods: Based on the American Diabetes Association (ADA)/European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) 2012 position statement, a panel of 12 European experts rated the appropriateness (RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method) of treatment strategies for 930 clinical scenarios, which were permutations of clinical variables considered relevant to treatment choice. These included current treatment, hemoglobin A1c difference from individualized target, risk of hypoglycemia, body mass index, life expectancy, and comorbidities. Treatment options included addition of a second or third agent, drug switches, and replacement by monotherapies if the patient was metformin-intolerant. Treatment costs were not considered. Appropriateness (appropriate, inappropriate, uncertain) was based on the median score and expert agreement. The panel recommendations were embedded in an online decision support tool (DiaScope®; Novo Nordisk Health Care AG, Zürich, Switzerland). Results: Treatment appropriateness was associated with (combinations of) the patient variables mentioned above. As second-line agents, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors were considered appropriate in all scenarios, followed by glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (50%), insulins (33%), and sulfonylureas (25%), but not pioglitazone (0%). Ratings of third-line combinations followed a similar pattern. Disagreement was highest for regimens including pioglitazone, sulfonylureas, or insulins and was partly due to differences in panelists' opinions and in drug availability and reimbursement across European countries

  11. DisTeam: A decision support tool for surgical team selection

    PubMed Central

    Ebadi, Ashkan; Tighe, Patrick J.; Zhang, Lei; Rashidi, Parisa

    2018-01-01

    Objective Surgical service providers play a crucial role in the healthcare system. Amongst all the influencing factors, surgical team selection might affect the patients’ outcome significantly. The performance of a surgical team not only can depend on the individual members, but it can also depend on the synergy among team members, and could possibly influence patient outcome such as surgical complications. In this paper, we propose a tool for facilitating decision making in surgical team selection based on considering history of the surgical team, as well as the specific characteristics of each patient. Methods DisTeam (a decision support tool for surgical team selection) is a metaheuristic framework for objective evaluation of surgical teams and finding the optimal team for a given patient, in terms of number of complications. It identifies a ranked list of surgical teams personalized for each patient, based on prior performance of the surgical teams. DisTeam takes into account the surgical complications associated with teams and their members, their teamwork history, as well as patient’s specific characteristics such as age, body mass index (BMI) and Charlson comorbidity index score. Results We tested DisTeam using intra-operative data from 6065 unique orthopedic surgery cases. Our results suggest high effectiveness of the proposed system in a health-care setting. The proposed framework converges quickly to the optimal solution and provides two sets of answers: a) The best surgical team over all the generations, and b) The best population which consists of different teams that can be used as an alternative solution. This increases the flexibility of the system as a complementary decision support tool. Conclusion DisTeam is a decision support tool for assisting in surgical team selection. It can facilitate the job of scheduling personnel in the hospital which involves an overwhelming number of factors pertaining to patients, individual team members, and team

  12. DisTeam: A decision support tool for surgical team selection.

    PubMed

    Ebadi, Ashkan; Tighe, Patrick J; Zhang, Lei; Rashidi, Parisa

    2017-02-01

    Surgical service providers play a crucial role in the healthcare system. Amongst all the influencing factors, surgical team selection might affect the patients' outcome significantly. The performance of a surgical team not only can depend on the individual members, but it can also depend on the synergy among team members, and could possibly influence patient outcome such as surgical complications. In this paper, we propose a tool for facilitating decision making in surgical team selection based on considering history of the surgical team, as well as the specific characteristics of each patient. DisTeam (a decision support tool for surgical team selection) is a metaheuristic framework for objective evaluation of surgical teams and finding the optimal team for a given patient, in terms of number of complications. It identifies a ranked list of surgical teams personalized for each patient, based on prior performance of the surgical teams. DisTeam takes into account the surgical complications associated with teams and their members, their teamwork history, as well as patient's specific characteristics such as age, body mass index (BMI) and Charlson comorbidity index score. We tested DisTeam using intra-operative data from 6065 unique orthopedic surgery cases. Our results suggest high effectiveness of the proposed system in a health-care setting. The proposed framework converges quickly to the optimal solution and provides two sets of answers: a) The best surgical team over all the generations, and b) The best population which consists of different teams that can be used as an alternative solution. This increases the flexibility of the system as a complementary decision support tool. DisTeam is a decision support tool for assisting in surgical team selection. It can facilitate the job of scheduling personnel in the hospital which involves an overwhelming number of factors pertaining to patients, individual team members, and team dynamics and can be used to compose

  13. The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1994-10-01

    The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approachmore » - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.« less

  14. Framing effects and risk-sensitive decision making.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Sandeep; Gregson, Margaux; Lalumière, Martin L

    2012-02-01

    Prospect theory suggests that people are risk-averse when facing gains, but risk-prone when facing losses, a pattern known as the framing effect. Although framing effects have been widely demonstrated, few studies have investigated framing effects under conditions of need. Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision makers should prefer high-risk options in situations of high need, when lower risk options are unlikely to meet those needs. In two experiments, we examined (1) whether framing effects occurred in behavioural tasks involving risky decision making from description and decision making from experience, (2) whether participants' risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory, and (3) whether decision framing interacted with conditions of need to influence decision making under risk. The results suggest that under all circumstances, risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory. Framing effects were at least partially demonstrable under all experimental conditions. Finally, negative frames interacted with situations of high need to produce particularly elevated levels of risky choice. Together, the results suggest that risk-sensitivity theory can augment prospect theory to explain choice under conditions of need. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  15. MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

    2016-04-01

    In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process

  16. Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) user manual (version 2006.01.18)

    Treesearch

    Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Fredrick B. Pierson; David E. Hall; Corey A. Moffet; Louise E. Ashmun

    2007-01-01

    The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective post-fire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. To aid in this assessment, the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed. This user manual describes the input parameters, input interface, model...

  17. The role of risk aversion in non-conscious decision making.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

    2012-01-01

    To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects' post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk.

  18. The Role of Risk Aversion in Non-Conscious Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

    2012-01-01

    To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects’ post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk. PMID:22375133

  19. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  20. Evidence-based coverage decisions? Primum non nocere.

    PubMed

    McElwee, Newell E; Ho, S Yin; McGuigan, Kimberly A; Horn, Mark L

    2006-01-01

    Drug class reviews are blunt tools for medical decision making. The practice of evidence-based medicine is far more than simply systematic reviews: The patient and doctor are integral. Here we highlight areas of evidence-based coverage decision making where greater balance and transparency could serve to improve the current process, and we recommend elements of a more positive approach that could optimize patient outcomes under resource constraints.

  1. Neural correlates of value, risk, and risk aversion contributing to decision making under risk.

    PubMed

    Christopoulos, George I; Tobler, Philippe N; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J; Schultz, Wolfram

    2009-10-07

    Decision making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk, and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of these correlates to actual choices is unknown. In two different experiments, participants chose between risky and safe options. We identified discrete blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) correlates of value and risk in the ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, respectively. Notably, increasing inferior frontal gyrus activity to low risk and safe options correlated with higher risk aversion. Importantly, the combination of these BOLD responses effectively decoded the behavioral choice. Striatal value and cingulate risk responses increased the probability of a risky choice, whereas inferior frontal gyrus responses showed the inverse relationship. These findings suggest that the BOLD correlates of decision factors are appropriate for an ideal observer to detect behavioral choices. More generally, these biological data contribute to the validity of the theoretical decision parameters for actual decisions under risk.

  2. Understanding Interrater Reliability and Validity of Risk Assessment Tools Used to Predict Adverse Clinical Events.

    PubMed

    Siedlecki, Sandra L; Albert, Nancy M

    This article will describe how to assess interrater reliability and validity of risk assessment tools, using easy-to-follow formulas, and to provide calculations that demonstrate principles discussed. Clinical nurse specialists should be able to identify risk assessment tools that provide high-quality interrater reliability and the highest validity for predicting true events of importance to clinical settings. Making best practice recommendations for assessment tool use is critical to high-quality patient care and safe practices that impact patient outcomes and nursing resources. Optimal risk assessment tool selection requires knowledge about interrater reliability and tool validity. The clinical nurse specialist will understand the reliability and validity issues associated with risk assessment tools, and be able to evaluate tools using basic calculations. Risk assessment tools are developed to objectively predict quality and safety events and ultimately reduce the risk of event occurrence through preventive interventions. To ensure high-quality tool use, clinical nurse specialists must critically assess tool properties. The better the tool's ability to predict adverse events, the more likely that event risk is mediated. Interrater reliability and validity assessment is relatively an easy skill to master and will result in better decisions when selecting or making recommendations for risk assessment tool use.

  3. A multiple biomarker risk score for guiding clinical decisions using a decision curve approach.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Maria F; Saarela, Olli; Blankenberg, Stefan; Zeller, Tanja; Havulinna, Aki S; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Yarnell, John; Schnabel, Renate B; Tiret, Laurence; Salomaa, Veikko; Evans, Alun; Kee, Frank

    2012-08-01

    We assessed whether a cardiovascular risk model based on classic risk factors (e.g. cholesterol, blood pressure) could refine disease prediction if it included novel biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin I) using a decision curve approach which can incorporate clinical consequences. We evaluated whether a model including biomarkers and classic risk factors could improve prediction of 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD; chronic heart disease and ischaemic stroke) against a classic risk factor model using a decision curve approach in two prospective MORGAM cohorts. This included 7739 men and women with 457 CVD cases from the FINRISK97 cohort; and 2524 men with 259 CVD cases from PRIME Belfast. The biomarker model improved disease prediction in FINRISK across the high-risk group (20-40%) but not in the intermediate risk group, at the 23% risk threshold net benefit was 0.0033 (95% CI 0.0013-0.0052). However, in PRIME Belfast the net benefit of decisions guided by the decision curve was improved across intermediate risk thresholds (10-20%). At p(t) = 10% in PRIME, the net benefit was 0.0059 (95% CI 0.0007-0.0112) with a net increase in 6 true positive cases per 1000 people screened and net decrease of 53 false positive cases per 1000 potentially leading to 5% fewer treatments in patients not destined for an event. The biomarker model improves 10-year CVD prediction at intermediate and high-risk thresholds and in particular, could be clinically useful at advising middle-aged European males of their CVD risk.

  4. Multi-criteria decision analysis tools for prioritising emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases associated with climate change in Canada.

    PubMed

    Cox, Ruth; Sanchez, Javier; Revie, Crawford W

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software 'M-MACBETH'. The tools were trialed on nine 'test' pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued.

  5. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tools for Prioritising Emerging or Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases Associated with Climate Change in Canada

    PubMed Central

    Cox, Ruth; Sanchez, Javier; Revie, Crawford W.

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software ‘M-MACBETH’. The tools were trialed on nine ‘test’ pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued

  6. Community-Focused Exposure and Risk Screening Tool (C-FERST): Introduction and Demonstration

    EPA Science Inventory

    Public Need: Communities and decision makers are concerned about where they live, work, and play. C-FERST is a user-friendly tool that helps: Identify environmental issues in communities; Learn about these issues; Explore exposure and risk reduction options.

  7. Pilot study of a point-of-use decision support tool for cancer clinical trials eligibility.

    PubMed

    Breitfeld, P P; Weisburd, M; Overhage, J M; Sledge, G; Tierney, W M

    1999-01-01

    Many adults with cancer are not enrolled in clinical trials because caregivers do not have the time to match the patient's clinical findings with varying eligibility criteria associated with multiple trials for which the patient might be eligible. The authors developed a point-of-use portable decision support tool (DS-TRIEL) to automate this matching process. The support tool consists of a hand-held computer with a programmable relational database. A two-level hierarchic decision framework was used for the identification of eligible subjects for two open breast cancer clinical trials. The hand-held computer also provides protocol consent forms and schemas to further help the busy oncologist. This decision support tool and the decision framework on which it is based could be used for multiple trials and different cancer sites.

  8. Pilot Study of a Point-of-use Decision Support Tool for Cancer Clinical Trials Eligibility

    PubMed Central

    Breitfeld, Philip P.; Weisburd, Marina; Overhage, J. Marc; Sledge, George; Tierney, William M.

    1999-01-01

    Many adults with cancer are not enrolled in clinical trials because caregivers do not have the time to match the patient's clinical findings with varying eligibility criteria associated with multiple trials for which the patient might be eligible. The authors developed a point-of-use portable decision support tool (DS-TRIEL) to automate this matching process. The support tool consists of a hand-held computer with a programmable relational database. A two-level hierarchic decision framework was used for the identification of eligible subjects for two open breast cancer clinical trials. The hand-held computer also provides protocol consent forms and schemas to further help the busy oncologist. This decision support tool and the decision framework on which it is based could be used for multiple trials and different cancer sites. PMID:10579605

  9. Expert System Application of Forward Chaining and Certainty Factors Method for The Decision of Contraception Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prambudi, Dwi Arief; Widodo, Catur Edi; Widodo, Aris Puji

    2018-02-01

    The choice of contraceptive tools is not an easy thing because the risks or effects will give impact on the body that never using it previously. in the other side, there is no contraception always suit for everybody because the circumstances of each body is different, so the extensive knowledge must be needed to know the advantages and disadvantages of each contraceptive tools then adjusted to the user's body.The expert system for contraceptive tools uses Forward Chaining search method combined with Certainty Factors Method. These method value the patient's indication. The Expert system gives the output data which define the kind of tool uses of the patient. the results obtained will be able to help people to find indications that lead to appropriate contraceptive tools and advice or suggestions about these tools. The success rate of the contraceptive tools decision experienced by experienced by the user by using forward chaining combined with the CF computation method is also influenced by the number of indication criteria selected by the user. Based on testing that has been done, expert system contraception tools has accuracy level equal to 75%.

  10. A decision-making tool for incorporating sustainability measures into pavement design : research project capsule.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-10-01

    The objective of the proposed study is to conceive and develop a decision-making tool : for evaluating sustainability of pavement designs based on a cradle-to-grave analysis. : This tool will utilize EPDs to enhance the reliability of the assessment ...

  11. Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

    2016-12-01

    Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

  12. Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

    2016-02-01

    Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

  13. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Stormwater Decision Support Tools for Infrastructure Selection and the Barriers to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spahr, K.; Hogue, T. S.

    2016-12-01

    Selecting the most appropriate green, gray, and / or hybrid system for stormwater treatment and conveyance can prove challenging to decision markers across all scales, from site managers to large municipalities. To help streamline the selection process, a multi-disciplinary team of academics and professionals is developing an industry standard for selecting and evaluating the most appropriate stormwater management technology for different regions. To make the tool more robust and comprehensive, life-cycle cost assessment and optimization modules will be included to evaluate non-monetized and ecosystem benefits of selected technologies. Initial work includes surveying advisory board members based in cities that use existing decision support tools in their infrastructure planning process. These surveys will qualify the decisions currently being made and identify challenges within the current planning process across a range of hydroclimatic regions and city size. Analysis of social and other non-technical barriers to adoption of the existing tools is also being performed, with identification of regional differences and institutional challenges. Surveys will also gage the regional appropriateness of certain stormwater technologies based off experiences in implementing stormwater treatment and conveyance plans. In additional to compiling qualitative data on existing decision support tools, a technical review of components of the decision support tool used will be performed. Gaps in each tool's analysis, like the lack of certain critical functionalities, will be identified and ease of use will be evaluated. Conclusions drawn from both the qualitative and quantitative analyses will be used to inform the development of the new decision support tool and its eventual dissemination.

  14. Decision support tools for proton therapy ePR: intelligent treatment planning navigator and radiation toxicity tool for evaluating of prostate cancer treatment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le, Anh H.; Deshpande, Ruchi; Liu, Brent J.

    2010-03-01

    The electronic patient record (ePR) has been developed for prostate cancer patients treated with proton therapy. The ePR has functionality to accept digital input from patient data, perform outcome analysis and patient and physician profiling, provide clinical decision support and suggest courses of treatment, and distribute information across different platforms and health information systems. In previous years, we have presented the infrastructure of a medical imaging informatics based ePR for PT with functionality to accept digital patient information and distribute this information across geographical location using Internet protocol. In this paper, we present the ePR decision support tools which utilize the imaging processing tools and data collected in the ePR. The two decision support tools including the treatment plan navigator and radiation toxicity tool are presented to evaluate prostate cancer treatment to improve proton therapy operation and improve treatment outcomes analysis.

  15. Cool but counterproductive: interactive, Web-based risk communications can backfire.

    PubMed

    Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Dickson, Mark; Witteman, Holly O

    2011-08-25

    Paper-based patient decision aids generally present risk information using numbers and/or static images. However, limited psychological research has suggested that when people interactively graph risk information, they process the statistics more actively, making the information more available for decision making. Such interactive tools could potentially be incorporated in a new generation of Web-based decision aids. The objective of our study was to investigate whether interactive graphics detailing the risk of side effects of two treatments improve knowledge and decision making over standard risk graphics. A total of 3371 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel viewed a hypothetical scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment had a chance of causing 1 of 2 side effects, but we randomly varied whether one treatment was better on both dimensions (strong dominance condition), slightly better on only one dimension (mild dominance condition), or better on one dimension but worse on the other (trade-off condition) than the other treatment. We also varied whether respondents passively viewed the risk information in static pictograph (icon array) images or actively manipulated the information by using interactive Flash-based animations of "fill-in-the-blank" pictographs. Our primary hypothesis was that active manipulation would increase respondents' ability to recognize dominance (when available) and choose the better treatment. The interactive risk graphic conditions had significantly worse survey completion rates (1110/1695, 65.5% vs 1316/1659, 79.3%, P < .001) than the static image conditions. In addition, respondents using interactive graphs were less likely to recognize and select the dominant treatment option (234/380, 61.6% vs 343/465, 73.8%, P < .001 in the strong dominance condition). Interactivity, however visually appealing, can both add to respondent burden and distract people from understanding relevant

  16. Cool but Counterproductive: Interactive, Web-Based Risk Communications Can Backfire

    PubMed Central

    Dickson, Mark; Witteman, Holly O

    2011-01-01

    Background Paper-based patient decision aids generally present risk information using numbers and/or static images. However, limited psychological research has suggested that when people interactively graph risk information, they process the statistics more actively, making the information more available for decision making. Such interactive tools could potentially be incorporated in a new generation of Web-based decision aids. Objective The objective of our study was to investigate whether interactive graphics detailing the risk of side effects of two treatments improve knowledge and decision making over standard risk graphics. Methods A total of 3371 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel viewed a hypothetical scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment had a chance of causing 1 of 2 side effects, but we randomly varied whether one treatment was better on both dimensions (strong dominance condition), slightly better on only one dimension (mild dominance condition), or better on one dimension but worse on the other (trade-off condition) than the other treatment. We also varied whether respondents passively viewed the risk information in static pictograph (icon array) images or actively manipulated the information by using interactive Flash-based animations of “fill-in-the-blank” pictographs. Our primary hypothesis was that active manipulation would increase respondents’ ability to recognize dominance (when available) and choose the better treatment. Results The interactive risk graphic conditions had significantly worse survey completion rates (1110/1695, 65.5% vs 1316/1659, 79.3%, P < .001) than the static image conditions. In addition, respondents using interactive graphs were less likely to recognize and select the dominant treatment option (234/380, 61.6% vs 343/465, 73.8%, P < .001 in the strong dominance condition). Conclusions Interactivity, however visually appealing, can both add to respondent burden

  17. Facilitating Adoption of News Tool to Develop Clinical Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Robin T.

    2017-01-01

    This scholarly project was a non-experimental, pre/post-test design to (a) facilitate the voluntary adoption of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and (b) develop clinical decision making (CDM) in one cohort of junior level nursing students participating in a simulation lab. NEWS is an evidence-based predictive scoring tool developed by the…

  18. Whose Values? Whose Risk? Exploring Decision Making About Trial of Labor After Cesarean.

    PubMed

    Charles, Sonya; Wolf, Allison B

    2018-06-01

    In this article, we discuss decision making during labor and delivery, specifically focusing on decision making around offering women a trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Many have discussed how humans are notoriously bad at assessing risks and how we often distort the nature of various risks surrounding childbirth. We will build on this discussion by showing that physicians make decisions around TOLAC not only based on distortions of risk, but also based on personal values (i.e. what level of risk are you comfortable with or what types of risks are you willing to take) rather than medical data (or at least medical data alone). As a result of this, we will further suggest that the party who is best epistemically situated to make decisions about TOLAC is the woman herself.

  19. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-08-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

  20. Risk Attitude in Small Timesaving Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Munichor, Nira; Erev, Ido; Lotem, Arnon

    2006-01-01

    Four experiments are presented that explore situations in which a decision maker has to rely on personal experience in an attempt to minimize delays. Experiment 1 shows that risk-attitude in these timesaving decisions is similar to risk-attitude in money-related decisions from experience: A risky prospect is more attractive than a safer prospect…

  1. Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement - An Impact-based Decision Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blondin, Debra

    2016-04-01

    Historically, convection causes the highest number of air traffic constraints on the United States National Air Space (NAS). Increased NAS predictability allows traffic flow managers to more effectively initiate, amend or terminate planned or active traffic management initiatives, resulting in more efficient use of available airspace. A Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) is an impact-based decision support tool used for the timely delivery of high-confidence, high-relevance aviation convective weather forecasts to air traffic managers. The CAWS is a graphical and textual forecast produced by a collaborative team of meteorologists from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Center Weather Service Units, and airlines to bring attention to high impact areas of thunderstorms. The CAWS addresses thunderstorm initiation or movement into the airports having the highest volume of traffic or into traffic sensitive jet routes. These statements are assessed by planners at the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Air Route Traffic Control Centers and are used for planning traffic management initiatives to balance air traffic flow across the United States. The FAA and the airline industry use the CAWS to plan, manage, and execute operations in the NAS, thereby improving the system efficiency and safety and also saving dollars for industry and the traveling public.

  2. Risk attitude in small timesaving decisions.

    PubMed

    Munichor, Nira; Erev, Ido; Lotem, Arnon

    2006-09-01

    Four experiments are presented that explore situations in which a decision maker has to rely on personal experience in an attempt to minimize delays. Experiment 1 shows that risk-attitude in these timesaving decisions is similar to risk-attitude in money-related decisions from experience: A risky prospect is more attractive than a safer prospect with the same expected value only when it leads to a better outcome most of the time. Experiment 2 highlights a boundary condition: It suggests that a difficulty in ranking the relevant delays moves behavior toward random choice. Experiments 3 and 4 show that when actions must be taken during the delay (thereby helping compare delays), this increases the similarity of timesaving decisions to money-related decisions. In these settings the results reflect an increase in risk aversion with experience. The relationship of the results to the study of non-human time-related decisions, human money-related decisions and human time perception is discussed.

  3. Collaboration and decision making tools for mobile groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abrahamyan, Suren; Balyan, Serob; Ter-Minasyan, Harutyun; Degtyarev, Alexander

    2017-12-01

    Nowadays the use of distributed collaboration tools is widespread in many areas of people activity. But lack of mobility and certain equipment-dependency creates difficulties and decelerates development and integration of such technologies. Also mobile technologies allow individuals to interact with each other without need of traditional office spaces and regardless of location. Hence, realization of special infrastructures on mobile platforms with help of ad-hoc wireless local networks could eliminate hardware-attachment and be useful also in terms of scientific approach. Solutions from basic internet-messengers to complex software for online collaboration equipment in large-scale workgroups are implementations of tools based on mobile infrastructures. Despite growth of mobile infrastructures, applied distributed solutions in group decisionmaking and e-collaboration are not common. In this article we propose software complex for real-time collaboration and decision-making based on mobile devices, describe its architecture and evaluate performance.

  4. Decision support tools to support the operations of traffic management centers (TMC)

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-01-31

    The goal of this project is to develop decision support tools to support traffic management operations based on collected intelligent transportation system (ITS) data. The project developments are in accordance with the needs of traffic management ce...

  5. Multi-criteria development and incorporation into decision tools for health technology adoption.

    PubMed

    Poulin, Paule; Austen, Lea; Scott, Catherine M; Waddell, Cameron D; Dixon, Elijah; Poulin, Michelle; Lafrenière, René

    2013-01-01

    When introducing new health technologies, decision makers must integrate research evidence with local operational management information to guide decisions about whether and under what conditions the technology will be used. Multi-criteria decision analysis can support the adoption or prioritization of health interventions by using criteria to explicitly articulate the health organization's needs, limitations, and values in addition to evaluating evidence for safety and effectiveness. This paper seeks to describe the development of a framework to create agreed-upon criteria and decision tools to enhance a pre-existing local health technology assessment (HTA) decision support program. The authors compiled a list of published criteria from the literature, consulted with experts to refine the criteria list, and used a modified Delphi process with a group of key stakeholders to review, modify, and validate each criterion. In a workshop setting, the criteria were used to create decision tools. A set of user-validated criteria for new health technology evaluation and adoption was developed and integrated into the local HTA decision support program. Technology evaluation and decision guideline tools were created using these criteria to ensure that the decision process is systematic, consistent, and transparent. This framework can be used by others to develop decision-making criteria and tools to enhance similar technology adoption programs. The development of clear, user-validated criteria for evaluating new technologies adds a critical element to improve decision-making on technology adoption, and the decision tools ensure consistency, transparency, and real-world relevance.

  6. Creating an advance-care-planning decision aid for high-risk surgery: a qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Schuster, Anne Lr; Aslakson, Rebecca A; Bridges, John Fp

    2014-01-01

    High-risk surgery patients may lose decision-making capacity as a result of surgical complications. Advance care planning prior to surgery may be beneficial, but remains controversial and is hindered by a lack of appropriate decision aids. This study sought to examine stakeholders' views on the appropriateness of using decision aids, in general, to support advance care planning among high-risk surgery populations and the design of such a decision aid. Key informants were recruited through purposive and snowball sampling. Semi-structured interviews were conducted by phone until data collected reached theoretical saturation. Key informants were asked to discuss their thoughts about advance care planning and interventions to support advance care planning, particularly for this population. Researchers took de-identified notes that were analyzed for emerging concordant, discordant, and recurrent themes using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Key informants described the importance of initiating advance care planning preoperatively, despite potential challenges present in surgical settings. In general, decision aids were viewed as an appropriate approach to support advance care planning for this population. A recipe emerged from the data that outlines tools, ingredients, and tips for success that are needed to design an advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgical settings. Stakeholders supported incorporating advance care planning in high-risk surgical settings and endorsed the appropriateness of using decision aids to do so. Findings will inform the next stages of developing the first advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgery patients.

  7. Altered Risk-Based Decision Making following Adolescent Alcohol Use Results from an Imbalance in Reinforcement Learning in Rats

    PubMed Central

    Hart, Andrew S.; Collins, Anne L.; Bernstein, Ilene L.; Phillips, Paul E. M.

    2012-01-01

    Alcohol use during adolescence has profound and enduring consequences on decision-making under risk. However, the fundamental psychological processes underlying these changes are unknown. Here, we show that alcohol use produces over-fast learning for better-than-expected, but not worse-than-expected, outcomes without altering subjective reward valuation. We constructed a simple reinforcement learning model to simulate altered decision making using behavioral parameters extracted from rats with a history of adolescent alcohol use. Remarkably, the learning imbalance alone was sufficient to simulate the divergence in choice behavior observed between these groups of animals. These findings identify a selective alteration in reinforcement learning following adolescent alcohol use that can account for a robust change in risk-based decision making persisting into later life. PMID:22615989

  8. Design and evaluation of a web-based decision support tool for district-level disease surveillance in a low-resource setting

    PubMed Central

    Pore, Meenal; Sengeh, David M.; Mugambi, Purity; Purswani, Nuri V.; Sesay, Tom; Arnold, Anna Lena; Tran, Anh-Minh A.; Myers, Ralph

    2017-01-01

    During the 2014 West African Ebola Virus outbreak it became apparent that the initial response to the outbreak was hampered by limitations in the collection, aggregation, analysis and use of data for intervention planning. As part of the post-Ebola recovery phase, IBM Research Africa partnered with the Port Loko District Health Management Team (DHMT) in Sierra Leone and GOAL Global, to design, implement and deploy a web-based decision support tool for district-level disease surveillance. This paper discusses the design process and the functionality of the first version of the system. The paper presents evaluation results prior to a pilot deployment and identifies features for future iterations. A qualitative assessment of the tool prior to pilot deployment indicates that it improves the timeliness and ease of using data for making decisions at the DHMT level. PMID:29854209

  9. Cost effectiveness of pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a comparative assessment of decision-making tools.

    PubMed

    Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn; Somkrua, Ratchadaporn; Hutubessy, Raymond; Henao, Ana Maria; Hombach, Joachim; Melegaro, Alessia; Edmunds, John W; Beutels, Philippe

    2011-05-12

    Several decision support tools have been developed to aid policymaking regarding the adoption of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into national pediatric immunization programs. The lack of critical appraisal of these tools makes it difficult for decision makers to understand and choose between them. With the aim to guide policymakers on their optimal use, we compared publicly available decision-making tools in relation to their methods, influential parameters and results. The World Health Organization (WHO) requested access to several publicly available cost-effectiveness (CE) tools for PCV from both public and private provenance. All tools were critically assessed according to the WHO's guide for economic evaluations of immunization programs. Key attributes and characteristics were compared and a series of sensitivity analyses was performed to determine the main drivers of the results. The results were compared based on a standardized set of input parameters and assumptions. Three cost-effectiveness modeling tools were provided, including two cohort-based (Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) ProVac Initiative TriVac, and PneumoADIP) and one population-based model (GlaxoSmithKline's SUPREMES). They all compared the introduction of PCV into national pediatric immunization program with no PCV use. The models were different in terms of model attributes, structure, and data requirement, but captured a similar range of diseases. Herd effects were estimated using different approaches in each model. The main driving parameters were vaccine efficacy against pneumococcal pneumonia, vaccine price, vaccine coverage, serotype coverage and disease burden. With a standardized set of input parameters developed for cohort modeling, TriVac and PneumoADIP produced similar incremental costs and health outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Vaccine cost (dose price and number of doses), vaccine efficacy and epidemiology of critical endpoint (for example

  10. Results from a randomized trial of a web-based, tailored decision aid for women at high risk for breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Banegas, Matthew P.; McClure, Jennifer B.; Barlow, William E.; Ubel, Peter A.; Smith, Dylan M.; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J.; Greene, Sarah M.; Fagerlin, Angela

    2013-01-01

    Objective To assess the impact of Guide to Decide (GtD), a web-based, personally-tailored decision aid designed to inform women’s decisions about prophylactic tamoxifen and raloxifene use. Methods Postmenopausal women, age 46–74, with BCRAT 5-year risk ≥1.66% and no prior history of breast cancer were randomized to one of three study arms: intervention (n = 690), Time 1 control (n = 160), or 3-month control (n = 162). Intervention participants viewed GtD prior to completing a post-test and 3 month follow-up assessment. Controls did not. We assessed the impact of GtD on women’s decisional conflict levels and treatment decision behavior at post-test and at 3 months, respectively. Results Intervention participants had significantly lower decisional conflict levels at post-test (p < 0.001) and significantly higher odds of making a decision about whether or not to take prophylactic tamoxifen or raloxifene at 3-month follow-up (p < 0.001) compared to control participants. Conclusion GtD lowered decisional conflict and helped women at high risk of breast cancer decide whether to take prophylactic tamoxifen or raloxifene to reduce their cancer risk. Practice implications Web-based, tailored decision aids should be used more routinely to facilitate informed medical decisions, reduce patients’ decisional conflict, and empower patients to choose the treatment strategy that best reflects their own values. PMID:23395006

  11. Advancements in Risk-Informed Performance-Based Asset Management for Commercial Nuclear Power Plants

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Liming, James K.; Ravindra, Mayasandra K.

    2006-07-01

    Over the past several years, ABSG Consulting Inc. (ABS Consulting) and the South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) have developed a decision support process and associated software for risk-informed, performance-based asset management (RIPBAM) of nuclear power plant facilities. RIPBAM applies probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools and techniques in the realm of plant physical and financial asset management. The RIPBAM process applies a tiered set of models and supporting performance measures (or metrics) that can ultimately be applied to support decisions affecting the allocation and management of plant resources (e.g., funding, staffing, scheduling, etc.). In general, the ultimate goal ofmore » the RIPBAM process is to continually support decision-making to maximize a facility's net present value (NPV) and long-term profitability for its owners. While the initial applications of RIPBAM have been for nuclear power stations, the methodology can easily be adapted to other types of power station or complex facility decision-making support. RIPBAM can also be designed to focus on performance metrics other than NPV and profitability (e.g., mission reliability, operational availability, probability of mission success per dollar invested, etc.). Recent advancements in the RIPBAM process focus on expanding the scope of previous RIPBAM applications to include not only operations, maintenance, and safety issues, but also broader risk perception components affecting plant owner (stockholder), operator, and regulator biases. Conceptually, RIPBAM is a comprehensive risk-informed cash flow model for decision support. It originated as a tool to help manage plant refueling outage scheduling, and was later expanded to include the full spectrum of operations and maintenance decision support. However, it differs from conventional business modeling tools in that it employs a systems engineering approach with broadly based probabilistic analysis of organizational

  12. Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.

  13. Validation of Pre-operative Patient Self-Assessment of Cardiac Risk for Non-Cardiac Surgery: Foundations for Decision Support

    PubMed Central

    Manaktala, Sharad; Rockwood, Todd; Adam, Terrence J.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: To better characterize patient understanding of their risk of cardiac complications from non-cardiac surgery and to develop a patient driven clinical decision support system for preoperative patient risk management. Methods: A patient-driven preoperative self-assessment decision support tool for perioperative assessment was created. Patient’ self-perception of cardiac risk and self-report data for risk factors were compared with gold standard preoperative physician assessment to evaluate agreement. Results: The patient generated cardiac risk profile was used for risk score generation and had excellent agreement with the expert physician assessment. However, patient subjective self-perception risk of cardiovascular complications had poor agreement with expert assessment. Conclusion: A patient driven cardiac risk assessment tool provides a high degree of agreement with expert provider assessment demonstrating clinical feasibility. The limited agreement between provider risk assessment and patient self-perception underscores a need for further work including focused preoperative patient education on cardiac risk. PMID:24551384

  14. Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Tool for Local-Scale Flood Risk Assessments in Coastal Cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulp, S. A.; Strauss, B.

    2015-12-01

    Local decision makers in coastal cities require accurate, accessible, and thorough assessments of flood exposure risk within their individual municipality, in their efforts to mitigate against damage due to future sea level rise. To fill this need, we have developed Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, an interactive data toolkit which presents our sea level rise and storm surge analysis for every coastal town, city, county, and state within the USA. Using this tool, policy makers can easily zoom in on their local place of interest to receive a detailed flood risk assessment, which synthesizes a wide range of features including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and many other critical facilities. Risk Finder can also be used to identify specific points of interest in danger of exposure at different flood levels. Additionally, this tool provides localized storm surge probabilities and sea level rise projections at tidal gauges along the coast, so that users can quickly understand the risk of flooding in their area over the coming decades.

  15. Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2015-12-01

    Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

  16. Engineering Decisions Under Risk-Averseness

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-12-19

    ENGINEERING DECISIONS UNDER RISK-AVERSENESS∗ R. Tyrrell Rockafellar Johannes O. Royset Department of Mathematics Operations Research Department...based upon work supported in part by the U. S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research under grants FA9550-11-1-0206 and F1ATAO1194GOO1. 1 Report...S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School,Operations Research Department,Monterey,CA,93943 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9

  17. Ambiguity aversion in schizophrenia: An fMRI study of decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    PubMed

    Fujino, Junya; Hirose, Kimito; Tei, Shisei; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Matsukawa, Noriko; Miyata, Jun; Sugihara, Genichi; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Ideno, Takashi; Aso, Toshihiko; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2016-12-01

    When making decisions in everyday life, we often have to choose between uncertain outcomes. Economic studies have demonstrated that healthy people tend to prefer options with known probabilities (risk) than those with unknown probabilities (ambiguity), which is referred to as "ambiguity aversion." However, it remains unclear how patients with schizophrenia behave under ambiguity, despite growing evidence of their altered decision-making under uncertainty. In this study, combining economic tools and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we assessed the attitudes toward risk/ambiguity and investigated the neural correlates during decision-making under risk/ambiguity in schizophrenia. Although no significant difference in attitudes under risk was observed, patients with schizophrenia chose ambiguity significantly more often than the healthy controls. Attitudes under risk and ambiguity did not correlate across patients with schizophrenia. Furthermore, unlike in the healthy controls, activation of the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex was not increased during decision-making under ambiguity compared to under risk in schizophrenia. These results suggest that ambiguity aversion, a well-established subjective bias, is attenuated in patients with schizophrenia, highlighting the need to distinguish between risk and ambiguity when assessing decision-making under these situations. Our findings, comprising important clinical implications, contribute to improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying altered decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Decision making in young people at familial risk of depression.

    PubMed

    Mannie, Z N; Williams, C; Browning, M; Cowen, P J

    2015-01-01

    Major depression is associated with abnormalities in reward processing at neural and behavioural levels. Neural abnormalities in reward have been described in young people at familial risk of depression but behavioural changes in reward-based decision making have been less studied in this group. We studied 63 young people (mean age 18.9 years) with a parent with a diagnosis of major depression but who had never been depressed themselves, that is with a positive family history of depression (the FH+ group). Participants performed the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT), which provides several measures of decision making including deliberation time, quality of decision making, risk taking, risk adjustment and delay aversion. A control group of 49 age- and gender-matched young people with no history of mood disorder in a first-degree relative undertook the same task. Both FH+ participants and controls had low and equivalent scores on anxiety and depression self-rating scales. Compared to controls, the FH+ participants showed overall lower risk taking, although like controls they made more risky choices as the odds of a favourable outcome increased. No other measures of decision making differed between the two groups. Young people at increased familial risk of depression have altered risk taking that is not accounted for by current affective symptomatology. Lowered risk taking might represent an impairment in reward seeking, which is one of several changes in reward-based behaviours seen in acutely depressed patients; however, our findings suggest that decreased reward seeking could be part of a risk endophenotype for depression.

  19. "Think aloud" and "Near live" usability testing of two complex clinical decision support tools.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Safiya; Mishuris, Rebecca; O'Connell, Alexander; Feldstein, David; Hess, Rachel; Smith, Paul; McCullagh, Lauren; McGinn, Thomas; Mann, Devin

    2017-10-01

    Low provider adoption continues to be a significant barrier to realizing the potential of clinical decision support. "Think Aloud" and "Near Live" usability testing were conducted on two clinical decision support tools. Each was composed of an alert, a clinical prediction rule which estimated risk of either group A Streptococcus pharyngitis or pneumonia and an automatic order set based on risk. The objective of this study was to further understanding of the facilitators of usability and to evaluate the types of additional information gained from proceeding to "Near Live" testing after completing "Think Aloud". This was a qualitative observational study conducted at a large academic health care system with 12 primary care providers. During "Think Aloud" testing, participants were provided with written clinical scenarios and asked to verbalize their thought process while interacting with the tool. During "Near Live" testing participants interacted with a mock patient. Morae usability software was used to record full screen capture and audio during every session. Participant comments were placed into coding categories and analyzed for generalizable themes. Themes were compared across usability methods. "Think Aloud" and "Near Live" usability testing generated similar themes under the coding categories visibility, workflow, content, understand-ability and navigation. However, they generated significantly different themes under the coding categories usability, practical usefulness and medical usefulness. During both types of testing participants found the tool easier to use when important text was distinct in its appearance, alerts were passive and appropriately timed, content was up to date, language was clear and simple, and each component of the tool included obvious indicators of next steps. Participant comments reflected higher expectations for usability and usefulness during "Near Live" testing. For example, visit aids, such as automatically generated order sets

  20. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2009-01-01

    Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn

  1. RAMPART (TM): Risk Assessment Method-Property Analysis and Ranking Tool v.4.0

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Carson, Susan D.; Hunter, Regina L.; Link, Madison D.

    RAMPART{trademark}, Risk Assessment Method-property Analysis and Ranking Tool, is a new type of computer software package for the assessment of risk to buildings. RAMPART{trademark} has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA). RAMPART {trademark} has been designed and developed to be a risk-based decision support tool that requires no risk analysis expertise on the part of the user. The RAMPART{trademark} user interface elicits information from the user about the building. The RAMPART{trademark} expert system is a set of rules that embodies GSA corporate knowledge and SNL's risk assessment experience. The RAMPART{trademark} database containsmore » both data entered by the user during a building analysis session and large sets of natural hazard and crime data. RAMPART{trademark} algorithms use these data to assess the risk associated with a given building in the face of certain hazards. Risks arising from five natural hazards (earthquake, hurricane, winter storm, tornado and flood); crime (inside and outside the building); fire and terrorism are calculated. These hazards may cause losses of various kinds. RAMPART{trademark} considers death, injury, loss of mission, loss of property, loss of contents, loss of building use, and first-responder loss. The results of each analysis are presented graphically on the screen and in a written report.« less

  2. The development of a personalized patient education tool for decision making for postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.

    PubMed

    Hiligsmann, M; Ronda, G; van der Weijden, T; Boonen, A

    2016-08-01

    A personalized patient education tool for decision making (PET) for postmenopausal women with osteoporosis was developed by means of a systematic development approach. A prototype was constructed and refined by involving various professionals and patients. Professionals and patients expressed a positive attitude towards the use of the PET. The purpose was to systematically develop a paper-based personalized PET to assist postmenopausal women with osteoporosis in selecting a treatment in line with their personal values and preferences. The development of the PET was based on a systematic process including scope, design, development of a prototype, and alpha testing among professionals and patients by semi-structured interviews. The design and development resulted in a four-page PET prototype together with a one-page fact sheet of the different drug options. The prototype PET provided the personal risk factors, the estimated individualized risk for a future major osteoporotic fracture and potential reduction with drugs, and a summary of advantages and disadvantages whether or not to start drugs. The drug fact sheet presents five attributes of seven drugs in a tabular format. The alpha testing with professionals resulted in some adaptations, e.g., inclusion of the possibility to calculate fracture risk based on various individual risk scoring methods. Important results from the alpha testing with patients were differences in the fracture risk percentage which was seen as worthwhile to start drugs, the importance of an overview of side effects, and of the timing of the PET into the patient pathway. All women indicated that the PET could be helpful for their decision to select a treatment. Physicians and patients expressed a positive attitude towards the use of the proposed PET. Further research would be needed to test the effects of the PET on feasibility in clinical workflow and on patient outcomes.

  3. External Validation of a Decision Tool To Guide Post-Operative Management of Patients with Secondary Peritonitis.

    PubMed

    Atema, Jasper J; Ram, Kim; Schultz, Marcus J; Boermeester, Marja A

    Timely identification of patients in need of an intervention for abdominal sepsis after initial surgical management of secondary peritonitis is vital but complex. The aim of this study was to validate a decision tool for this purpose and to evaluate its potential to guide post-operative management. A prospective cohort study was conducted on consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for secondary peritonitis in a single hospital. Assessments using the decision tool, based on one intra-operative and five post-operative variables, were performed on the second and third post-operative days and when the patients' clinical status deteriorated. Scores were compared with the clinical reference standard of persistent sepsis based on the clinical course or findings at imaging or surgery. Additionally, the potential of the decision tool to guide management in terms of diagnostic imaging in three previously defined score categories (low, intermediate, and high) was evaluated. A total of 161 assessments were performed in 69 patients. The majority of cases of secondary peritonitis (68%) were caused by perforation of the gastrointestinal tract. Post-operative persistent sepsis occurred in 28 patients. The discriminative capacity of the decision tool score was fair (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic = 0.79). The incidence rate differed significantly between the three score categories (p < 0.001). The negative predictive value of a decision tool score categorized as low probability was 89% (95% confidence interval [CI] 82-94) and 65% (95% CI 47-79) for an intermediate score. Diagnostic imaging was performed more frequently when there was an intermediate score than when the score was categorized as low (46% vs. 24%; p < 0.001). In patients operated on for secondary peritonitis, the decision tool score predicts with fair accuracy whether persistent sepsis is present.

  4. Publishing web-based guidelines using interactive decision models.

    PubMed

    Sanders, G D; Nease, R F; Owens, D K

    2001-05-01

    Commonly used methods for guideline development and dissemination do not enable developers to tailor guidelines systematically to specific patient populations and update guidelines easily. We developed a web-based system, ALCHEMIST, that uses decision models and automatically creates evidence-based guidelines that can be disseminated, tailored and updated over the web. Our objective was to demonstrate the use of this system with clinical scenarios that provide challenges for guideline development. We used the ALCHEMIST system to develop guidelines for three clinical scenarios: (1) Chlamydia screening for adolescent women, (2) antiarrhythmic therapy for the prevention of sudden cardiac death; and (3) genetic testing for the BRCA breast-cancer mutation. ALCHEMIST uses information extracted directly from the decision model, combined with the additional information from the author of the decision model, to generate global guidelines. ALCHEMIST generated electronic web-based guidelines for each of the three scenarios. Using ALCHEMIST, we demonstrate that tailoring a guideline for a population at high-risk for Chlamydia changes the recommended policy for control of Chlamydia from contact tracing of reported cases to a population-based screening programme. We used ALCHEMIST to incorporate new evidence about the effectiveness of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) and demonstrate that the cost-effectiveness of use of ICDs improves from $74 400 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained to $34 500 per QALY gained. Finally, we demonstrate how a clinician could use ALCHEMIST to incorporate a woman's utilities for relevant health states and thereby develop patient-specific recommendations for BRCA testing; the patient-specific recommendation improved quality-adjusted life expectancy by 37 days. The ALCHEMIST system enables guideline developers to publish both a guideline and an interactive decision model on the web. This web-based tool enables guideline developers

  5. Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

    PubMed

    Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

  6. Knowledge Management Implementation and the Tools Utilized in Healthcare for Evidence-Based Decision Making: A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Shahmoradi, Leila; Safadari, Reza; Jimma, Worku

    2017-09-01

    Healthcare is a knowledge driven process and thus knowledge management and the tools to manage knowledge in healthcare sector are gaining attention. The aim of this systematic review is to investigate knowledge management implementation and knowledge management tools used in healthcare for informed decision making. Three databases, two journals websites and Google Scholar were used as sources for the review. The key terms used to search relevant articles include: "Healthcare and Knowledge Management"; "Knowledge Management Tools in Healthcare" and "Community of Practices in healthcare". It was found that utilization of knowledge management in healthcare is encouraging. There exist numbers of opportunities for knowledge management implementation, though there are some barriers as well. Some of the opportunities that can transform healthcare are advances in health information and communication technology, clinical decision support systems, electronic health record systems, communities of practice and advanced care planning. Providing the right knowledge at the right time, i.e., at the point of decision making by implementing knowledge management in healthcare is paramount. To do so, it is very important to use appropriate tools for knowledge management and user-friendly system because it can significantly improve the quality and safety of care provided for patients both at hospital and home settings.

  7. SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SLIDE PRESENTATION)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  8. Using Collaborative Simulation Modeling to Develop a Web-Based Tool to Support Policy-Level Decision Making About Breast Cancer Screening Initiation Age

    PubMed Central

    Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Lee, Sandra J.; Bennette, Carrie; Near, Aimee M.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Huang, Hui; van den Broek, Jeroen J.; Kim, Joo Yeon; Ergun, Mehmet A.; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T.; Stout, Natasha K.; de Koning, Harry J.; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S.

    2017-01-01

    Background There are no publicly available tools designed specifically to assist policy makers to make informed decisions about the optimal ages of breast cancer screening initiation for different populations of US women. Objective To use three established simulation models to develop a web-based tool called Mammo OUTPuT. Methods The simulation models use the 1970 US birth cohort and common parameters for incidence, digital screening performance, and treatment effects. Outcomes include breast cancers diagnosed, breast cancer deaths averted, breast cancer mortality reduction, false-positive mammograms, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis. The Mammo OUTPuT tool displays these outcomes for combinations of age at screening initiation (every year from 40 to 49), annual versus biennial interval, lifetime versus 10-year horizon, and breast density, compared to waiting to start biennial screening at age 50 and continuing to 74. The tool was piloted by decision makers (n = 16) who completed surveys. Results The tool demonstrates that benefits in the 40s increase linearly with earlier initiation age, without a specific threshold age. Likewise, the harms of screening increase monotonically with earlier ages of initiation in the 40s. The tool also shows users how the balance of benefits and harms varies with breast density. Surveys revealed that 100% of users (16/16) liked the appearance of the site; 94% (15/16) found the tool helpful; and 94% (15/16) would recommend the tool to a colleague. Conclusions This tool synthesizes a representative subset of the most current CISNET (Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network) simulation model outcomes to provide policy makers with quantitative data on the benefits and harms of screening women in the 40s. Ultimate decisions will depend on program goals, the population served, and informed judgments about the weight of benefits and harms. PMID:29376135

  9. Probabilistic soil erosion modeling using the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMIT) after wildfires

    Treesearch

    P. R. Robichaud; W. J. Elliot; J. W. Wagenbrenner

    2011-01-01

    The decision of whether or not to apply post-fire hillslope erosion mitigation treatments, and if so, where these treatments are most needed, is a multi-step process. Land managers must assess the risk of damaging runoff and sediment delivery events occurring on the unrecovered burned hillslope. We developed the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) to address this need...

  10. [Development of HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men based on Delphi method].

    PubMed

    Li, L L; Jiang, Z; Song, W L; Ding, Y Y; Xu, J; He, N

    2017-10-10

    Objective: To develop a HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men (MSM) based on Delphi method. Methods: After an exhaustive literature review, we used Delphi method to determine the specific items and relative risk scores of the assessment tool through two rounds of specialist consultation and overall consideration of the opinions and suggestions of 17 specialists. Results: The positivity coefficient through first and second round specialist consultation was 100.0 % and 94.1 % , respectively. The mean of authority coefficients ( Cr ) was 0.86. Kendall's W coefficient of the specialist consultation was 0.55 for the first round consultation (χ(2)=84.426, P <0.001) and 0.46 for the second round consultation (χ(2)=65.734, P <0.001), respectively, suggesting that the specialists had similar opinions. The final HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM has 8 items. Conclusions: The HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM, developed under the Delphi method, can be used in the evaluation of HIV infection risk in MSM and individualized prevention and intervention. However, the reliability and validity of this risk assessment tool need to be further evaluated.

  11. Development of a support tool for complex decision-making in the provision of rural maternity care.

    PubMed

    Hearns, Glen; Klein, Michael C; Trousdale, William; Ulrich, Catherine; Butcher, David; Miewald, Christiana; Lindstrom, Ronald; Eftekhary, Sahba; Rosinski, Jessica; Gómez-Ramírez, Oralia; Procyk, Andrea

    2010-02-01

    Decisions in the organization of safe and effective rural maternity care are complex, difficult, value laden and fraught with uncertainty, and must often be based on imperfect information. Decision analysis offers tools for addressing these complexities in order to help decision-makers determine the best use of resources and to appreciate the downstream effects of their decisions. To develop a maternity care decision-making tool for the British Columbia Northern Health Authority (NH) for use in low birth volume settings. Based on interviews with community members, providers, recipients and decision-makers, and employing a formal decision analysis approach, we sought to clarify the influences affecting rural maternity care and develop a process to generate a set of value-focused objectives for use in designing and evaluating rural maternity care alternatives. Four low-volume communities with variable resources (with and without on-site births, with or without caesarean section capability) were chosen. Physicians (20), nurses (18), midwives and maternity support service providers (4), local business leaders, economic development officials and elected officials (12), First Nations (women [pregnant and non-pregnant], chiefs and band members) (40), social workers (3), pregnant women (2) and NH decision-makers/administrators (17). We developed a Decision Support Manual to assist with assessing community needs and values, context for decision-making, capacity of the health authority or healthcare providers, identification of key objectives for decision-making, developing alternatives for care, and a process for making trade-offs and balancing multiple objectives. The manual was deemed an effective tool for the purpose by the client, NH. Beyond assisting the decision-making process itself, the methodology provides a transparent communication tool to assist in making difficult decisions. While the manual was specifically intended to deal with rural maternity issues, the NH

  12. Development of a Support Tool for Complex Decision-Making in the Provision of Rural Maternity Care

    PubMed Central

    Hearns, Glen; Klein, Michael C.; Trousdale, William; Ulrich, Catherine; Butcher, David; Miewald, Christiana; Lindstrom, Ronald; Eftekhary, Sahba; Rosinski, Jessica; Gómez-Ramírez, Oralia; Procyk, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    Context: Decisions in the organization of safe and effective rural maternity care are complex, difficult, value laden and fraught with uncertainty, and must often be based on imperfect information. Decision analysis offers tools for addressing these complexities in order to help decision-makers determine the best use of resources and to appreciate the downstream effects of their decisions. Objective: To develop a maternity care decision-making tool for the British Columbia Northern Health Authority (NH) for use in low birth volume settings. Design: Based on interviews with community members, providers, recipients and decision-makers, and employing a formal decision analysis approach, we sought to clarify the influences affecting rural maternity care and develop a process to generate a set of value-focused objectives for use in designing and evaluating rural maternity care alternatives. Setting: Four low-volume communities with variable resources (with and without on-site births, with or without caesarean section capability) were chosen. Participants: Physicians (20), nurses (18), midwives and maternity support service providers (4), local business leaders, economic development officials and elected officials (12), First Nations (women [pregnant and non-pregnant], chiefs and band members) (40), social workers (3), pregnant women (2) and NH decision-makers/administrators (17). Results: We developed a Decision Support Manual to assist with assessing community needs and values, context for decision-making, capacity of the health authority or healthcare providers, identification of key objectives for decision-making, developing alternatives for care, and a process for making trade-offs and balancing multiple objectives. The manual was deemed an effective tool for the purpose by the client, NH. Conclusions: Beyond assisting the decision-making process itself, the methodology provides a transparent communication tool to assist in making difficult decisions. While the

  13. Decision Matrices: Tools to Enhance Middle School Engineering Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonczi, Amanda L.; Bergman, Brenda G.; Huntoon, Jackie; Allen, Robin; McIntyre, Barb; Turner, Sheri; Davis, Jen; Handler, Rob

    2017-01-01

    Decision matrices are valuable engineering tools. They allow engineers to objectively examine solution options. Decision matrices can be incorporated in K-12 classrooms to support authentic engineering instruction. In this article we provide examples of how decision matrices have been incorporated into 6th and 7th grade classrooms as part of an…

  14. Sideline coverage: when to get radiographs? A review of clinical decision tools.

    PubMed

    Gould, Sara J; Cardone, Dennis A; Munyak, John; Underwood, Philipp J; Gould, Stephen A

    2014-05-01

    Sidelines coverage presents unique challenges in the evaluation of injured athletes. Health care providers may be confronted with the question of when to obtain radiographs following an injury. Given that most sidelines coverage occurs outside the elite level, radiographs are not readily available at the time of injury, and the decision of when to send a player for radiographs must be made based on physical examination. Clinical tools have been developed to aid in identifying injuries that are likely to result in radiographically important fractures or dislocations. A search for the keywords x-ray and decision rule along with the anatomic locations shoulder, elbow, wrist, knee, and ankle was performed using the PubMed database. No limits were set regarding year of publication. We selected meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials, and survey results. Our selection focused on the largest, most well-studied published reports. We also attempted to include studies that reported the application of the rules to the field of sports medicine. Retrospective literature review. Level 4. The Ottawa Foot and Ankle Rules have been validated and implemented and are appropriate for use in both pediatric and adult populations. The Ottawa Knee Rules have been widely studied, validated, and accepted for evaluation of knee injuries. There are promising studies of decision rules for clinically important fractures of the wrist, but these studies have not been validated. The elbow has been evaluated with good outcomes via the elbow extension test, which has been validated in both single and multicenter studies. Currently, there are no reliable clinical decision tools for traumatic sports injuries to the shoulder to aid in the decision of when to obtain radiographs. Clinical decision tools have been developed to aid in the diagnosis and management of injuries commonly sustained during sporting events. Tools that have been appropriately validated in populations outside the initial study

  15. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-05-30

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

  17. Creating an advance-care-planning decision aid for high-risk surgery: a qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background High-risk surgery patients may lose decision-making capacity as a result of surgical complications. Advance care planning prior to surgery may be beneficial, but remains controversial and is hindered by a lack of appropriate decision aids. This study sought to examine stakeholders’ views on the appropriateness of using decision aids, in general, to support advance care planning among high-risk surgery populations and the design of such a decision aid. Methods Key informants were recruited through purposive and snowball sampling. Semi-structured interviews were conducted by phone until data collected reached theoretical saturation. Key informants were asked to discuss their thoughts about advance care planning and interventions to support advance care planning, particularly for this population. Researchers took de-identified notes that were analyzed for emerging concordant, discordant, and recurrent themes using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Results Key informants described the importance of initiating advance care planning preoperatively, despite potential challenges present in surgical settings. In general, decision aids were viewed as an appropriate approach to support advance care planning for this population. A recipe emerged from the data that outlines tools, ingredients, and tips for success that are needed to design an advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgical settings. Conclusions Stakeholders supported incorporating advance care planning in high-risk surgical settings and endorsed the appropriateness of using decision aids to do so. Findings will inform the next stages of developing the first advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgery patients. PMID:25067908

  18. A randomized comparative trial of two decision tools for pregnant women with prior cesareans.

    PubMed

    Eden, Karen B; Perrin, Nancy A; Vesco, Kimberly K; Guise, Jeanne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    Evaluate tools to help pregnant women with prior cesareans make informed decisions about having trials of labor. Randomized comparative trial. A research assistant with a laptop met the women in quiet locations at clinics and at health fairs. Pregnant women (N = 131) who had one prior cesarean and were eligible for vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) participated one time between 2005 and 2007. Women were randomized to receive either an evidence-based, interactive decision aid or two evidence-based educational brochures about cesarean delivery and VBAC. Effect on the decision-making process was assessed before and after the interventions. Compared to baseline, women in both groups felt more informed (F = 23.8, p < .001), were more clear about their birth priorities (F = 9.7, p = .002), felt more supported (F = 9.8, p = .002, and overall reported less conflict (F = 18.1, p < 0.001) after receiving either intervention. Women in their third trimesters reported greater clarity around birth priorities after using the interactive decision aid than women given brochures (F = 9.8, p = .003). Although both decision tools significantly reduced conflict around the birth decision compared to baseline, more work is needed to understand which format, the interactive decision aid or paper brochures, are more effective early and late in pregnancy. © 2014 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

  19. Cropland rental tool (CROPRENT) for agricultural producers

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This article describes the Cropland Rental Tool (CROPRENT), which is an Excel-based decision tool for comparing different cropland lease agreements, including flexible cash rents, for up to five crops and/or management systems. Flexible cash rents allow tenants and landowners to share in the risk as...

  20. Effectiveness of a web-based personalized rheumatoid arthritis risk tool with or without a health educator for knowledge of RA risk factors.

    PubMed

    Prado, Maria G; Iversen, Maura D; Yu, Zhi; Miller Kroouze, Rachel; Triedman, Nellie A; Kalia, Sarah S; Lu, Bing; Green, Robert C; Karlson, Elizabeth W; Sparks, Jeffrey A

    2018-01-05

    To assess knowledge of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk factors among unaffected first-degree relatives (FDRs) and to study whether a personalized RA education tool increases risk factor knowledge. We performed a randomized controlled trial assessing RA educational interventions among 238 FDRs. The web-based Personalized Risk Estimator for RA (PRE-RA) tool displayed personalized RA risk results (genetics, autoantibodies, demographics, and behaviors) and educated about risk factors. Subjects were randomly assigned to: Comparison arm (standard RA education, n=80), PRE-RA arm (PRE-RA alone, n=78), or PRE-RA Plus arm (PRE-RA and a one-on-one session with a trained health educator, n=80). The RA Knowledge Score (RAKS, the number of 8 established RA risk factors identified as related to RA) was calculated at baseline and post-education (immediate/6 weeks/6 months/12 months). We compared RAKS and its components at each post-education point by randomization arm. At baseline before education, few FDRs identified behavioral RA risk factors (15.9% for dental health, 31.9% for smoking, 47.5% for overweight/obesity, and 54.2% for diet). After education, RAKS increased in all arms, higher in PRE-RA and PRE-RA Plus than Comparison at all post-education points (p<0.05). PRE-RA were more likely to identify risk factors than those that received standard education (proportion agreeing smoking is a risk factor at 6 weeks: 83.1% in PRE-RA Plus arm, 71.8% in PRE-RA, and 43.1% in Comparison arms, p<0.05 for PRE-RA vs. Comparison). Despite being both familiar with RA and at increased risk, FDRs had low knowledge about RA risk factors. A web-based personalized RA education tool successfully increased RA risk factor knowledge. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  1. STRESSED SEBATES: A TRAIT-BASED EVALUATION OF CLIMATE RISKS TO ROCKFISHES OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC USING THE COASTAL BIOGEOGRAPHIC RISK ANALYSIS TOOL (CBRAT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework is implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the ...

  2. Stressed Sebastes: A Trait-Based Evaluation of Climate Risks to Rockfishes of the Northeastern Pacific Using the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework was implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the...

  3. Clinical decision support tool for Co-management signalling.

    PubMed

    Horta, Alexandra Bayão; Salgado, Cátia; Fernandes, Marta; Vieira, Susana; Sousa, João M; Papoila, Ana Luísa; Xavier, Miguel

    2018-05-01

    Co-management between internists and surgeons of selected patients is becoming one of the pillars of modern clinical management in large hospitals. Defining the patients to be co-managed is essential. The aim of this study is to create a decision tool using real-world patient data collected in the preoperative period, to support the decision on which patients should have the co-management service offered. Data was collected from the electronic clinical health records of patients who had an International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition (ICD-9) code of colorectal surgery during the period between January 2012 and October 2014 in a 200 bed private teaching hospital in Lisbon. ICD-9 codes of colorectal surgery [48.5 and 48.6 (anterior rectal resection and abdominoperineal resection), 45.7 (partial colectomy), 45.8 (Total Colectomy), and 45.9 (Bowel Anastomosis)] were used. Only patients above 18 years old were considered. Patients with more than one procedure were excluded from the study. From these data the authors investigated the construction of predictive models using logistic regression and Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy modelling. Data contains information obtained from the clinical records of a cohort of 344 adult patients. Data from 398 emergent and elective surgeries were collected, from which 54 were excluded because they were second procedures for the same patients. Four preoperative variables were identified as being the most predictive of co-management, in multivariable regression analysis. The final model performed well after being internally validated (0.81 AUC, 77% accuracy, 74% sensitivity, 78% specificity, 93% negative predictive value). The results indicate that the decision process can be more objective and potentially automated. The authors developed a prediction model based on preoperative characteristics, in order to support the decision for the co-management of surgical patients in the postoperative ward setting. The model is a simple bedside

  4. Promoting Shared Decision Making in Disorders of Sex Development (DSD): Decision Aids and Support Tools.

    PubMed

    Siminoff, L A; Sandberg, D E

    2015-05-01

    Specific complaints and grievances from adult patients with disorders of sex development (DSD), and their advocates center around the lack of information or misinformation they were given about their condition and feeling stigmatized and shamed by the secrecy surrounding their condition and its management. Many also attribute poor sexual function to damaging genital surgery and/or repeated, insensitive genital examinations. These reports suggest the need to reconsider the decision-making process for the treatment of children born with DSD. This paper proposes that shared decision making, an important concept in adult health care, be operationalized for the major decisions commonly encountered in DSD care and facilitated through the utilization of decision aids and support tools. This approach may help patients and their families make informed decisions that are better aligned with their personal values and goals. It may also lead to greater confidence in decision making with greater satisfaction and less regret. A brief review of the past and current approach to DSD decision making is provided, along with a review of shared decision making and decision aids and support tools. A case study explores the need and potential utility of this suggested new approach. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  5. Clinical decision support tools for osteoporosis disease management: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials.

    PubMed

    Kastner, Monika; Straus, Sharon E

    2008-12-01

    Studies indicate a gap between evidence and clinical practice in osteoporosis management. Tools that facilitate clinical decision making at the point of care are promising strategies for closing these practice gaps. To systematically review the literature to identify and describe the effectiveness of tools that support clinical decision making in osteoporosis disease management. Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, and EBM Reviews (CDSR, DARE, CCTR, and ACP J Club), and contact with experts in the field. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in any language from 1966 to July 2006 investigating disease management interventions in patients at risk for osteoporosis. Outcomes included fractures and bone mineral density (BMD) testing. Two investigators independently assessed articles for relevance and study quality, and extracted data using standardized forms. Of 1,246 citations that were screened for relevance, 13 RCTs met the inclusion criteria. Reported study quality was generally poor. Meta-analysis was not done because of methodological and clinical heterogeneity; 77% of studies included a reminder or education as a component of their intervention. Three studies of reminders plus education targeted to physicians and patients showed increased BMD testing (RR range 1.43 to 8.67) and osteoporosis medication use (RR range 1.60 to 8.67). A physician reminder plus a patient risk assessment strategy found reduced fractures [RR 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37 to 0.90] and increased osteoporosis therapy (RR 2.44, CI 1.43 to 4.17). Multi-component tools that are targeted to physicians and patients may be effective for supporting clinical decision making in osteoporosis disease management.

  6. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan, Erin; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Forecast uncertainty is a twofold issue, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts for a diversity of activities in the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. The setup and the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, designed as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called ``How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?'', will be presented. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, including during this session at the EGU conference in 2015, and a total of 129 worksheets were collected and analysed. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game showed that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community in the future.

  7. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; van Harmelen, Toon; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit-risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

  8. Five shared decision-making tools in 5 months: use of rapid reviews to develop decision boxes for seniors living with dementia and their caregivers.

    PubMed

    Lawani, Moulikatou Adouni; Valéra, Béatriz; Fortier-Brochu, Émilie; Légaré, France; Carmichael, Pierre-Hugues; Côté, Luc; Voyer, Philippe; Kröger, Edeltraut; Witteman, Holly; Rodriguez, Charo; Giguere, Anik M C

    2017-03-15

    Decision support tools build upon comprehensive and timely syntheses of literature. Rapid reviews may allow supporting their development by omitting certain components of traditional systematic reviews. We thus aimed to describe a rapid review approach underlying the development of decision support tools, i.e., five decision boxes (DB) for shared decision-making between seniors living with dementia, their caregivers, and healthcare providers. We included studies based on PICO questions (Participant, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome) describing each of the five specific decision. We gave priority to higher quality evidence (e.g., systematic reviews). For each DB, we first identified secondary sources of literature, namely, clinical summaries, clinical practice guidelines, and systematic reviews. After an initial extraction, we searched for primary studies in academic databases and grey literature to fill gaps in evidence. We extracted study designs, sample sizes, populations, and probabilities of benefits/harms of the health options. A single reviewer conducted the literature search and study selection. The data extracted by one reviewer was verified by a second experienced reviewer. Two reviewers assessed the quality of the evidence. We converted all probabilities into absolute risks for ease of understanding. Two to five experts validated the content of each DB. We conducted descriptive statistical analyses on the review processes and resources required. The approach allowed screening of a limited number of references (range: 104 to 406/review). For each review, we included 15 to 26 studies, 2 to 10 health options, 11 to 62 health outcomes and we conducted 9 to 47 quality assessments. A team of ten reviewers with varying levels of expertise was supported at specific steps by an information specialist, a biostatistician, and a graphic designer. The time required to complete a rapid review varied from 7 to 31 weeks per review (mean ± SD, 19 ± 10

  9. Frontal, Striatal, and Medial Temporal Sensitivity to Value Distinguishes Risk-Taking from Risk-Aversive Older Adults during Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Goh, Joshua O S; Su, Yu-Shiang; Tang, Yong-Jheng; McCarrey, Anna C; Tereshchenko, Alexander; Elkins, Wendy; Resnick, Susan M

    2016-12-07

    Aging compromises the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas of the reward system, impeding accurate value representation and feedback processing critical for decision making. However, substantial variability characterizes age-related effects on the brain so that some older individuals evince clear neurocognitive declines whereas others are spared. Moreover, the functional correlates of normative individual differences in older-adult value-based decision making remain unclear. We performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging study in 173 human older adults during a lottery choice task in which costly to more desirable stakes were depicted using low to high expected values (EVs) of points. Across trials that varied in EVs, participants decided to accept or decline the offered stakes to maximize total accumulated points. We found that greater age was associated with less optimal decisions, accepting stakes when losses were likely and declining stakes when gains were likely, and was associated with increased frontal activity for costlier stakes. Critically, risk preferences varied substantially across older adults and neural sensitivity to EVs in the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas dissociated risk-aversive from risk-taking individuals. Specifically, risk-averters increased neural responses to increasing EVs as stakes became more desirable, whereas risk-takers increased neural responses with decreasing EV as stakes became more costly. Risk preference also modulated striatal responses during feedback with risk-takers showing more positive responses to gains compared with risk-averters. Our findings highlight the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas as key neural loci in which individual differences differentially affect value-based decision-making ability in older adults. Frontal, striatal, and medial temporal functions implicated in value-based decision processing of rewards and costs undergo substantial age-related changes. However, age

  10. A Contemporary Prostate Biopsy Risk Calculator Based on Multiple Heterogeneous Cohorts.

    PubMed

    Ankerst, Donna P; Straubinger, Johanna; Selig, Katharina; Guerrios, Lourdes; De Hoedt, Amanda; Hernandez, Javier; Liss, Michael A; Leach, Robin J; Freedland, Stephen J; Kattan, Michael W; Nam, Robert; Haese, Alexander; Montorsi, Francesco; Boorjian, Stephen A; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Poyet, Cedric; Vertosick, Emily; Vickers, Andrew J

    2018-05-16

    Prostate cancer prediction tools provide quantitative guidance for doctor-patient decision-making regarding biopsy. The widely used online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPTRC) utilized data from the 1990s based on six-core biopsies and outdated grading systems. We prospectively gathered data from men undergoing prostate biopsy in multiple diverse North American and European institutions participating in the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG) in order to build a state-of-the-art risk prediction tool. We obtained data from 15 611 men undergoing 16 369 prostate biopsies during 2006-2017 at eight North American institutions for model-building and three European institutions for validation. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate the risks of high-grade prostate cancer (Gleason score ≥7) on biopsy based on clinical characteristics, including age, prostate-specific antigen, digital rectal exam, African ancestry, first-degree family history, and prior negative biopsy. We compared the PBCG model to the PCPTRC using internal cross-validation and external validation on the European cohorts. Cross-validation on the North American cohorts (5992 biopsies) yielded the PBCG model area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as 75.5% (95% confidence interval: 74.2-76.8), a small improvement over the AUC of 72.3% (70.9-73.7) for the PCPTRC (p<0.0001). However, calibration and clinical net benefit were far superior for the PBCG model. Using a risk threshold of 10%, clinical use of the PBCG model would lead to the equivalent of 25 fewer biopsies per 1000 patients without missing any high-grade cancers. Results were similar on external validation on 10 377 European biopsies. The PBCG model should be used in place of the PCPTRC for prediction of prostate biopsy outcome. A contemporary risk tool for outcomes on prostate biopsy based on the routine clinical risk factors is now available for informed decision-making. Copyright

  11. Risk perception and decision processes underlying informed consent to research participation.

    PubMed

    Reynolds, William W; Nelson, Robert M

    2007-11-01

    According to the rational choice model, informed consent should consist of a systematic, step-by-step evaluation of all information pertinent to the treatment or research participation decision. Research shows that people frequently deviate from this normative model, however, employing decision-making shortcuts, or heuristics. In this paper we report findings from a qualitative study of 32 adolescents and (their) 31 parents who were recruited from two Northeastern US hospitals and asked to consider the risks of and make hypothetical decisions about research participation. The purpose of this study was to increase our understanding of how diabetic and at-risk adolescents (i.e., those who are obese and/or have a family history of diabetes) and their parents perceive risks and make decisions about research participation. Using data collected from adolescents and parents, we identify heuristic decision processes in which participant perceptions of risk magnitude, which are formed quickly and intuitively and appear to be based on affective responses to information, are far more prominent and central to the participation decision than are perceptions of probability. We discuss participants' use of decision-making heuristics in the context of recent research on affect and decision processes, and we consider the implications of these findings for researchers.

  12. Discrete event simulation for healthcare organizations: a tool for decision making.

    PubMed

    Hamrock, Eric; Paige, Kerrie; Parks, Jennifer; Scheulen, James; Levin, Scott

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare organizations face challenges in efficiently accommodating increased patient demand with limited resources and capacity. The modern reimbursement environment prioritizes the maximization of operational efficiency and the reduction of unnecessary costs (i.e., waste) while maintaining or improving quality. As healthcare organizations adapt, significant pressures are placed on leaders to make difficult operational and budgetary decisions. In lieu of hard data, decision makers often base these decisions on subjective information. Discrete event simulation (DES), a computerized method of imitating the operation of a real-world system (e.g., healthcare delivery facility) over time, can provide decision makers with an evidence-based tool to develop and objectively vet operational solutions prior to implementation. DES in healthcare commonly focuses on (1) improving patient flow, (2) managing bed capacity, (3) scheduling staff, (4) managing patient admission and scheduling procedures, and (5) using ancillary resources (e.g., labs, pharmacies). This article describes applicable scenarios, outlines DES concepts, and describes the steps required for development. An original DES model developed to examine crowding and patient flow for staffing decision making at an urban academic emergency department serves as a practical example.

  13. Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach.

    PubMed

    Batterham, Philip J; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

    2009-11-22

    Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves. The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors. The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed.

  14. Interactive web visualization tools to the results interpretation of a seismic risk study aimed at the emergency levels definition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivas-Medina, A.; Gutierrez, V.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.

    2009-04-01

    Results of a seismic risk assessment study are often applied and interpreted by users unspecialised on the topic or lacking a scientific background. In this context, the availability of tools that help translating essentially scientific contents to broader audiences (such as decision makers or civil defence officials) as well as representing and managing results in a user-friendly fashion, are on indubitable value. On of such tools is the visualization tool VISOR-RISNA, a web tool developed within the RISNA project (financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre, Spain) for regional seismic risk assessment of Navarre and the subsequent development of emergency plans. The RISNA study included seismic hazard evaluation, geotechnical characterization of soils, incorporation of site effects to expected ground motions, vulnerability distribution assessment and estimation of expected damage distributions for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The main goal of RISNA was the identification of higher risk area where focusing detailed, local-scale risk studies in the future and the corresponding urban emergency plans. A geographic information system was used to combine different information layers, generate tables of results and represent maps with partial and final results. The visualization tool VISOR-RISNA is intended to facilitate the interpretation and representation of the collection of results, with the ultimate purpose of defining actuation plans. A number of criteria for defining actuation priorities are proposed in this work. They are based on combinations of risk parameters resulting from the risk study (such as expected ground motion and damage and exposed population), as determined by risk assessment specialists. Although the values that these parameters take are a result of the risk study, their distribution in several classes depends on the intervals defined by decision takers or civil defense officials. These criteria provide a ranking of

  15. TBell: A mathematical tool for analyzing decision tables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoover, D. N.; Chen, Zewei

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the development of mathematical theory and software to analyze specifications that are developed using decision tables. A decision table is a tabular format for specifying a complex set of rules that chooses one of a number of alternative actions. The report also describes a prototype tool, called TBell, that automates certain types of analysis.

  16. Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

    2016-01-01

    Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and

  17. Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in

  18. "Best Case/Worst Case": Qualitative Evaluation of a Novel Communication Tool for Difficult in-the-Moment Surgical Decisions.

    PubMed

    Kruser, Jacqueline M; Nabozny, Michael J; Steffens, Nicole M; Brasel, Karen J; Campbell, Toby C; Gaines, Martha E; Schwarze, Margaret L

    2015-09-01

    To evaluate a communication tool called "Best Case/Worst Case" (BC/WC) based on an established conceptual model of shared decision-making. Focus group study. Older adults (four focus groups) and surgeons (two focus groups) using modified questions from the Decision Aid Acceptability Scale and the Decisional Conflict Scale to evaluate and revise the communication tool. Individuals aged 60 and older recruited from senior centers (n = 37) and surgeons from academic and private practices in Wisconsin (n = 17). Qualitative content analysis was used to explore themes and concepts that focus group respondents identified. Seniors and surgeons praised the tool for the unambiguous illustration of multiple treatment options and the clarity gained from presentation of an array of treatment outcomes. Participants noted that the tool provides an opportunity for in-the-moment, preference-based deliberation about options and a platform for further discussion with other clinicians and loved ones. Older adults worried that the format of the tool was not universally accessible for people with different educational backgrounds, and surgeons had concerns that the tool was vulnerable to physicians' subjective biases. The BC/WC tool is a novel decision support intervention that may help facilitate difficult decision-making for older adults and their physicians when considering invasive, acute medical treatments such as surgery. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

  19. Computer-Based Driving in Dementia Decision Tool With Mail Support: Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

    PubMed

    Rapoport, Mark J; Zucchero Sarracini, Carla; Kiss, Alex; Lee, Linda; Byszewski, Anna; Seitz, Dallas P; Vrkljan, Brenda; Molnar, Frank; Herrmann, Nathan; Tang-Wai, David F; Frank, Christopher; Henry, Blair; Pimlott, Nicholas; Masellis, Mario; Naglie, Gary

    2018-05-25

    Physicians often find significant challenges in assessing automobile driving in persons with mild cognitive impairment and mild dementia and deciding when to report to transportation administrators. Care must be taken to balance the safety of patients and other road users with potential negative effects of issuing such reports. The aim of this study was to assess whether a computer-based Driving in Dementia Decision Tool (DD-DT) increased appropriate reporting of patients with mild dementia or mild cognitive impairment to transportation administrators. The study used a parallel-group cluster nonblinded randomized controlled trial design to test a multifaceted knowledge translation intervention. The intervention included a computer-based decision support system activated by the physician-user, which provides a recommendation about whether to report patients with mild dementia or mild cognitive impairment to transportation administrators, based on an algorithm derived from earlier work. The intervention also included a mailed educational package and Web-based specialized reporting forms. Specialists and family physicians with expertise in dementia or care of the elderly were stratified by sex and randomized to either use the DD-DT or a control version of the tool that required identical data input as the intervention group, but instead generated a generic reminder about the reporting legislation in Ontario, Canada. The trial ran from September 9, 2014 to January 29, 2016, and the primary outcome was the number of reports made to the transportation administrators concordant with the algorithm. A total of 69 participating physicians were randomized, and 36 of these used the DD-DT; 20 of the 35 randomized to the intervention group used DD-DT with 114 patients, and 16 of the 34 randomized to the control group used it with 103 patients. The proportion of all assessed patients reported to the transportation administrators concordant with recommendation did not differ

  20. FEMA's Earthquake Incident Journal: A Web-Based Data Integration and Decision Support Tool for Emergency Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, M.; Pitts, R.

    2017-12-01

    For emergency managers, government officials, and others who must respond to rapidly changing natural disasters, timely access to detailed information related to affected terrain, population and infrastructure is critical for planning, response and recovery operations. Accessing, analyzing and disseminating such disparate information in near real-time are critical decision support components. However, finding a way to handle a variety of informative yet complex datasets poses a challenge when preparing for and responding to disasters. Here, we discuss the implementation of a web-based data integration and decision support tool for earthquakes developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as a solution to some of these challenges. While earthquakes are among the most well- monitored and measured of natural hazards, the spatially broad impacts of shaking, ground deformation, landslides, liquefaction, and even tsunamis, are extremely difficult to quantify without accelerated access to data, modeling, and analytics. This web-based application, deemed the "Earthquake Incident Journal", provides real-time access to authoritative and event-specific data from external (e.g. US Geological Survey, NASA, state and local governments, etc.) and internal (FEMA) data sources. The journal includes a GIS-based model for exposure analytics, allowing FEMA to assess the severity of an event, estimate impacts to structures and population in near real-time, and then apply planning factors to exposure estimates to answer questions such as: What geographic areas are impacted? Will federal support be needed? What resources are needed to support survivors? And which infrastructure elements or essential facilities are threatened? This presentation reviews the development of the Earthquake Incident Journal, detailing the data integration solutions, the methodology behind the GIS-based automated exposure model, and the planning factors as well as other analytical advances that

  1. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

    PubMed

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

    2016-12-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  2. Clarity versus complexity: land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sohl, Terry L.; Claggett, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The last decade has seen a remarkable increase in the number of modeling tools available to examine future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. Integrated modeling frameworks, agent-based models, cellular automata approaches, and other modeling techniques have substantially improved the representation of complex LULC systems, with each method using a different strategy to address complexity. However, despite the development of new and better modeling tools, the use of these tools is limited for actual planning, decision-making, or policy-making purposes. LULC modelers have become very adept at creating tools for modeling LULC change, but complicated models and lack of transparency limit their utility for decision-makers. The complicated nature of many LULC models also makes it impractical or even impossible to perform a rigorous analysis of modeling uncertainty. This paper provides a review of land-cover modeling approaches and the issues causes by the complicated nature of models, and provides suggestions to facilitate the increased use of LULC models by decision-makers and other stakeholders. The utility of LULC models themselves can be improved by 1) providing model code and documentation, 2) through the use of scenario frameworks to frame overall uncertainties, 3) improving methods for generalizing key LULC processes most important to stakeholders, and 4) adopting more rigorous standards for validating models and quantifying uncertainty. Communication with decision-makers and other stakeholders can be improved by increasing stakeholder participation in all stages of the modeling process, increasing the transparency of model structure and uncertainties, and developing user-friendly decision-support systems to bridge the link between LULC science and policy. By considering these options, LULC science will be better positioned to support decision-makers and increase real-world application of LULC modeling results.

  3. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often confronted with information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. If these health effects need to be contrasted with costs or compared with alternative scena...

  4. A New Approach in Applying Systems Engineering Tools and Analysis to Determine Hepatocyte Toxicogenomics Risk Levels to Human Health.

    PubMed

    Gigrich, James; Sarkani, Shahryar; Holzer, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    There is an increasing backlog of potentially toxic compounds that cannot be evaluated with current animal-based approaches in a cost-effective and expeditious manner, thus putting human health at risk. Extrapolation of animal-based test results for human risk assessment often leads to different physiological outcomes. This article introduces the use of quantitative tools and methods from systems engineering to evaluate the risk of toxic compounds by the analysis of the amount of stress that human hepatocytes undergo in vitro when metabolizing GW7647 1 over extended times and concentrations. Hepatocytes are exceedingly connected systems that make it challenging to understand the highly varied dimensional genomics data to determine risk of exposure. Gene expression data of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-α (PPARα) 2 binding was measured over multiple concentrations and varied times of GW7647 exposure and leveraging mahalanombis distance to establish toxicity threshold risk levels. The application of these novel systems engineering tools provides new insight into the intricate workings of human hepatocytes to determine risk threshold levels from exposure. This approach is beneficial to decision makers and scientists, and it can help reduce the backlog of untested chemical compounds due to the high cost and inefficiency of animal-based models.

  5. A web-based neurological pain classifier tool utilizing Bayesian decision theory for pain classification in spinal cord injury patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verma, Sneha K.; Chun, Sophia; Liu, Brent J.

    2014-03-01

    Pain is a common complication after spinal cord injury with prevalence estimates ranging 77% to 81%, which highly affects a patient's lifestyle and well-being. In the current clinical setting paper-based forms are used to classify pain correctly, however, the accuracy of diagnoses and optimal management of pain largely depend on the expert reviewer, which in many cases is not possible because of very few experts in this field. The need for a clinical decision support system that can be used by expert and non-expert clinicians has been cited in literature, but such a system has not been developed. We have designed and developed a stand-alone tool for correctly classifying pain type in spinal cord injury (SCI) patients, using Bayesian decision theory. Various machine learning simulation methods are used to verify the algorithm using a pilot study data set, which consists of 48 patients data set. The data set consists of the paper-based forms, collected at Long Beach VA clinic with pain classification done by expert in the field. Using the WEKA as the machine learning tool we have tested on the 48 patient dataset that the hypothesis that attributes collected on the forms and the pain location marked by patients have very significant impact on the pain type classification. This tool will be integrated with an imaging informatics system to support a clinical study that will test the effectiveness of using Proton Beam radiotherapy for treating spinal cord injury (SCI) related neuropathic pain as an alternative to invasive surgical lesioning.

  6. Adaptation of a Biomarker-Based Sepsis Mortality Risk Stratification Tool for Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

    PubMed

    Yehya, Nadir; Wong, Hector R

    2018-01-01

    The original Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and revised (Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II) biomarker-based risk prediction models have demonstrated utility for estimating baseline 28-day mortality risk in pediatric sepsis. Given the paucity of prediction tools in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, and given the overlapping pathophysiology between sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome, we tested the utility of Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II for mortality prediction in a cohort of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, with an a priori plan to revise the model if these existing models performed poorly. Prospective observational cohort study. University affiliated PICU. Mechanically ventilated children with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Blood collection within 24 hours of acute respiratory distress syndrome onset and biomarker measurements. In 152 children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model performed poorly and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II performed modestly (areas under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.61 and 0.76, respectively). Therefore, we randomly selected 80% of the cohort (n = 122) to rederive a risk prediction model for pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. We used classification and regression tree methodology, considering the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model biomarkers in addition to variables relevant to acute respiratory distress syndrome. The final model was comprised of three biomarkers and age, and more accurately estimated baseline mortality risk (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.85, p < 0.001 and p = 0.053 compared with Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II, respectively). The model was tested in the remaining 20% of subjects (n = 30) and demonstrated similar test characteristics. A validated, biomarker-based

  7. Why Breast Cancer Risk by the Numbers Is Not Enough: Evaluation of a Decision Aid in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Numerate Women

    PubMed Central

    Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham; Aguirre, Alejandra; Smalletz, Cindy; David, Raven; Crew, Katherine

    2015-01-01

    Background Breast cancer risk assessment including genetic testing can be used to classify people into different risk groups with screening and preventive interventions tailored to the needs of each group, yet the implementation of risk-stratified breast cancer prevention in primary care settings is complex. Objective To address barriers to breast cancer risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention strategies in primary care settings, we developed a Web-based decision aid, RealRisks, that aims to improve preference-based decision-making for breast cancer prevention, particularly in low-numerate women. Methods RealRisks incorporates experience-based dynamic interfaces to communicate risk aimed at reducing inaccurate risk perceptions, with modules on breast cancer risk, genetic testing, and chemoprevention that are tailored. To begin, participants learn about risk by interacting with two games of experience-based risk interfaces, demonstrating average 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk. We conducted four focus groups in English-speaking women (age ≥18 years), a questionnaire completed before and after interacting with the decision aid, and a semistructured group discussion. We employed a mixed-methods approach to assess accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk and acceptability of RealRisks. The qualitative analysis of the semistructured discussions assessed understanding of risk, risk models, and risk appropriate prevention strategies. Results Among 34 participants, mean age was 53.4 years, 62% (21/34) were Hispanic, and 41% (14/34) demonstrated low numeracy. According to the Gail breast cancer risk assessment tool (BCRAT), the mean 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk were 1.11% (SD 0.77) and 7.46% (SD 2.87), respectively. After interacting with RealRisks, the difference in perceived and estimated breast cancer risk according to BCRAT improved for 5-year risk (P=.008). In the qualitative analysis, we identified potential barriers to adopting risk

  8. A Pilot Study to Reduce Computed Tomography Utilization for Pediatric Mild Head Injury in the Emergency Department Using a Clinical Decision Support Tool and a Structured Parent Discussion Tool.

    PubMed

    Engineer, Rakesh S; Podolsky, Seth R; Fertel, Baruch S; Grover, Purva; Jimenez, Heather; Simon, Erin L; Smalley, Courtney M

    2018-05-15

    The American College of Emergency Physicians embarked on the "Choosing Wisely" campaign to avoid computed tomographic (CT) scans in patients with minor head injury who are at low risk based on validated decision rules. We hypothesized that a Pediatric Mild Head Injury Care Path could be developed and implemented to reduce inappropriate CT utilization with support of a clinical decision support tool (CDST) and a structured parent discussion tool. A quality improvement project was initiated for 9 weeks to reduce inappropriate CT utilization through 5 interventions: (1) engagement of leadership, (2) provider education, (3) incorporation of a parent discussion tool to guide discussion during the emergency department (ED) visit between the parent and the provider, (4) CDST embedded in the electronic medical record, and (5) importation of data into the note to drive compliance. Patients prospectively were enrolled when providers at a pediatric and a freestanding ED entered data into the CDST for decision making. Rate of care path utilization and head CT reduction was determined for all patients with minor head injury based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Targets for care path utilization and head CT reduction were established a priori. Results were compared with baseline data collected from 2013. The CDST was used in 176 (77.5%) of 227 eligible patients. Twelve patients were excluded based on a priori criteria. Adherence to recommendations occurred in 162 (99%) of 164 patients. Head CT utilization was reduced from 62.7% to 22% (odds ratio, 0.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.24) where CDST was used by the provider. There were no missed traumatic brain injuries in our study group. A Pediatric Mild Head Injury Care Path can be implemented in a pediatric and freestanding ED, resulting in reduced head CT utilization and high levels of adherence to CDST recommendations.

  9. Perspectives on benefit-risk decision-making in vaccinology: Conference report.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, M; Simondon, F; Saadatian-Elahi, M

    2016-01-01

    Benefit/risk (B/R) assessment methods are increasingly being used by regulators and companies as an important decision-making tool and their outputs as the basis of communication. B/R appraisal of vaccines, as compared with drugs, is different due to their attributes and their use. For example, vaccines are typically given to healthy people, and, for some vaccines, benefits exist both at the population and individual level. For vaccines in particular, factors such as the benefit afforded through herd effects as a function of vaccine coverage and consequently impact the B/R ratio, should also be taken into consideration and parameterized in B/R assessment models. Currently, there is no single agreed methodology for vaccine B/R assessment that can fully capture all these aspects. The conference "Perspectives on Benefit-Risk Decision-making in Vaccinology," held in Annecy (France), addressed these issues and provided recommendations on how to advance the science and practice of B/R assessment of vaccines and vaccination programs.

  10. Mapping ecological risks with a portfolio-based technique: incorporating uncertainty and decision-making preferences

    Treesearch

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Mark Ducey; Klaus Koehler

    2013-01-01

    Geographic mapping of risks is a useful analytical step in ecological risk assessments and in particular, in analyses aimed to estimate risks associated with introductions of invasive organisms. In this paper, we approach invasive species risk mapping as a portfolio allocation problem and apply techniques from decision theory to build an invasion risk map that combines...

  11. A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

    PubMed

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

  12. A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

  13. Improving the decision-making process for nonprescription drugs: a framework for benefit-risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Brass, E P; Lofstedt, R; Renn, O

    2011-12-01

    Nonprescription drugs pose unique challenges to regulators. The fact that the barriers to access are lower for nonprescription drugs as compared with prescription drugs may permit additional consumers to obtain effective drugs. However, the use of these drugs by consumers in the absence of supervision by a health-care professional may result in unacceptable rates of misuse and suboptimal clinical outcomes. A value-tree method is proposed that defines important benefit and risk domains relevant to nonprescription drugs. This value tree can be used to comprehensively identify product-specific attributes in each domain and can also support formal benefit-risk assessment using a variety of tools. This is illustrated here, using a modification of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) framework, a flexible tool previously applied in a number of fields, which systematizes an approach to issue review, early alignment of stakeholders, evaluation, and risk mitigation/management. The proposed approach has the potential to provide structured, transparent tools for regulatory decision making for nonprescription drugs.

  14. Overview of EPA tools for supporting local-, state- and regional-level decision makers addressing energy and environmental issues: NYC MARKAL Energy Systems Model and Municipal Solid Waste Decision Support Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    A workshop will be conducted to demonstrate and focus on two decision support tools developed at EPA/ORD: 1. Community-scale MARKAL model: an energy-water technology evaluation tool and 2. Municipal Solid Waste Decision Support Tool (MSW DST). The Workshop will be part of Southea...

  15. Using exposure prediction tools to link exposure and dosimetry for risk-based decisions: A case study with phthalates

    EPA Science Inventory

    A few different exposure prediction tools were evaluated for use in the new in vitro-based safety assessment paradigm using di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) and dibutyl phthalate (DnBP) as case compounds. Daily intake of each phthalate was estimated using both high-throughput (HT...

  16. Enhancements in healthcare information technology systems: customizing vendor-supplied clinical decision support for a high-risk patient population.

    PubMed

    Tiwari, Ruchi; Tsapepas, Demetra S; Powell, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare organizations continue to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to prevent potential medication-related adverse drug events. End-users who are unfamiliar with certain high-risk patient populations are at an increased risk of unknowingly causing medication errors. The following case describes a heart transplant recipient exposed to supra-therapeutic concentrations of tacrolimus during co-administration of ritonavir as a result of vendor supplied CDS tools that omitted an interaction alert. After review of 4692 potential tacrolimus-based DDIs between 329 different drug pairs supplied by vendor CDS, the severity of 20 DDIs were downgraded and the severity of 62 were upgraded. The need for institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is paramount to ensure avoidance of medication errors. Individualized care will become more important as patient populations and institutions become more specialized. In the future, vendors providing integrated CDS tools must be proactive in developing institution-specific and easily customizable CDS tools.

  17. Enhancements in healthcare information technology systems: customizing vendor-supplied clinical decision support for a high-risk patient population

    PubMed Central

    Tiwari, Ruchi; Tsapepas, Demetra S; Powell, Jaclyn T

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare organizations continue to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to prevent potential medication-related adverse drug events. End-users who are unfamiliar with certain high-risk patient populations are at an increased risk of unknowingly causing medication errors. The following case describes a heart transplant recipient exposed to supra-therapeutic concentrations of tacrolimus during co-administration of ritonavir as a result of vendor supplied CDS tools that omitted an interaction alert. After review of 4692 potential tacrolimus-based DDIs between 329 different drug pairs supplied by vendor CDS, the severity of 20 DDIs were downgraded and the severity of 62 were upgraded. The need for institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is paramount to ensure avoidance of medication errors. Individualized care will become more important as patient populations and institutions become more specialized. In the future, vendors providing integrated CDS tools must be proactive in developing institution-specific and easily customizable CDS tools. PMID:22813760

  18. Trait Anxiety Has Effect on Decision Making under Ambiguity but Not Decision Making under Risk

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Long; Wang, Kai; Zhu, Chunyan; Yu, Fengqiong; Chen, Xingui

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have reported that trait anxiety (TA) affects decision making. However, results remain largely inconsistent across studies. The aim of the current study was to further address the interaction between TA and decision making. 304 subjects without depression from a sample consisting of 642 participants were grouped into high TA (HTA), medium TA (MTA) and low TA (LTA) groups based on their TA scores from State Trait Anxiety Inventory. All subjects were assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) that measures decision making under ambiguity and the Game of Dice Task (GDT) that measures decision making under risk. While the HTA and LTA groups performed worse on the IGT compared to the MTA group, performances on the GDT between the three groups did not differ. Furthermore, the LTA and HTA groups showed different individual deck level preferences in the IGT: the former showed a preference for deck B indicating that these subjects focused more on the magnitude of rewards, and the latter showed a preference for deck A indicating significant decision making impairment. Our findings suggest that trait anxiety has effect on decision making under ambiguity but not decision making under risk and different levels of trait anxiety related differently to individual deck level preferences in the IGT. PMID:26000629

  19. Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mimbs, Scott M.

    2008-01-01

    One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement, and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSIINCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these new requirements may have on calibration service providers has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper will look at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.

  20. Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mimbs, Scott M.

    2007-01-01

    One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and its cousin, the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSI/NCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has also added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these changes might have on calibration service providers if these requirements are levied on them has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper looks at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.

  1. Metabolic State Alters Economic Decision Making under Risk in Humans

    PubMed Central

    Drew, Megan E.; Batterham, Rachel L.; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2010-01-01

    Background Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores). Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable) food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry), and safe (less variable) food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake), and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves). We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively. Conclusions/Significance We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity

  2. "People Can Go against the Government": Risk-Based Decision Making and High School Students' Concepts of Society

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radakovic, Nenad

    2015-01-01

    Research in mathematics education stresses the importance of content knowledge in solving authentic tasks in statistics and in risk-based decision making. Existing research supports the claim that students rely on content knowledge and context expertise to make sense of data. In this article, however, I present evidence that the relationship…

  3. Development and evaluation of a breast cancer prevention decision aid for higher‐risk women

    PubMed Central

    Stacey, Dawn; O'Connor, Annette M.; DeGrasse, Cathy; Verma, Shailendra

    2003-01-01

    Abstract Objective  To develop and evaluate the effectiveness of a breast cancer prevention decision aid for women aged 50 and older at higher risk of breast cancer. Design  Pre‐test–post‐test study using decision aid alone and in combination with counselling. Setting  Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Clinic. Participants  Twenty‐seven women aged 50–69 with 1.66% or higher 5‐year risk of breast cancer. Intervention  Self‐administered breast cancer prevention decision aid. Main outcome measures  Acceptability; decisional conflict; knowledge; realistic expectations; choice predisposition; intention to improve life‐style practices; psychological distress; and satisfaction with preparation for consultation. Results  The decision aid alone, or in combination with counselling, decreased some dimensions of decisional conflict, increased knowledge (P < 0.01), and created more realistic expectations (P < 0.01). The aid in combination with counselling, significantly reduced decisional conflict (P < 0.01) and psychological distress (P < 0.02), helped the uncertain become certain (P < 0.02), and increased intentions to adopt healthier life‐style practices (P < 0.03). Women rated the aid as acceptable, and both women and practitioners were satisfied with the effect it had on the counselling session. Conclusion  The decision aid shows promise as a useful decision support tool. Further research should compare the effect of the decision aid in combination with counselling to counselling alone. PMID:12603624

  4. Water Resources Risks and the Climate Resilience Toolkit: Tools, Case Studies, and Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Read, E. K.; Blodgett, D. L.; Booth, N.

    2014-12-01

    The Water Resources Risk topic of the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) is designed to provide decision support, technical, and educational resources to communities, water resource managers, policy analysts, and water utilities working to increase the resilience of water resources to climate change. We highlight the partnerships (between federal and state agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private partners), tools (e.g., downscaled climate products, historical and real-time water data, and decision support) and success stories that are informing the CRT Water Resources Risks Theme content, and identify remaining needs in available resources for building resilience of water resources to climate change. The following questions will frame the content of the Water Resources Risk CRT: How are human and natural components of the hydrologic cycle changing? How can communities and water managers plan for uncertain future conditions? How will changing water resources impact food production, energy resources, ecosystems, and human health? What water resources data are of high value to society and are they easily accessible? Input on existing tools, resources, or potential partnerships that could be used to further develop content and fill gaps in the Water Resources CRT is welcome. We also invite ideas for water resources 'innovation challenges', in which technology developers work to create tools to that enhance the capacity of communities and managers to increase resilience of water resources at the local and regional scales.

  5. Detroit deicing decision support tool : description, operation, and simulation results

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2006-01-01

    The John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, : developed a deicing decision support tool, for Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (DTW).1 The deicing decision support ...

  6. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  7. Are health-based payments a feasible tool for addressing risk segmentation?

    PubMed

    Rogal, D L; Gauthier, A K

    1998-01-01

    As they attempt to increase health insurance coverage and improve the efficiency of the market, researchers, policymakers, and health plan representatives have been addressing the issue of risk segmentation. Many risk assessment tools and risk-adjusted payment methodologies have been developed and demonstrated for a variety of populations and payers experiencing various market constraints. The evidence shows that risk-adjusted payments are feasible for most populations receiving acute care, while technical obstacles, political issues, and some research gaps remain.

  8. EconoMe-Develop - a calculation tool for multi-risk assessment and benefit-cost-analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bründl, M.

    2012-04-01

    Public money is used to finance the protection of human life, material assets and the environment against natural hazards. This limited resource should be used in a way that it achieves the maximum possible effect by minimizing as many risks as possible. Hence, decision-makers are facing the question which mitigation measures should be prioritised. Benefit-Cost-Analysis (BCA) is a recognized method for determining the economic efficiency of investments in mitigation measures. In Switzerland, the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) judges the benefit-cost-ratio of mitigation projects on the base of the results of the calculation tool "EconoMe" [1]. The check of the economic efficiency of mitigation projects with an investment of more than 1 million CHF (800,000 EUR) by using "EconoMe" is mandatory since 2008 in Switzerland. Within "EconoMe", most calculation parameters cannot be changed by the user allowing for comparable results. Based on the risk guideline "RIKO" [2] an extended version of the operational version of "EconoMe", called "EconoMe-Develop" was developed. "EconoMe-Develop" is able to deal with various natural hazard processes and thus allows multi-risk assessments, since all restrictions of the operational version of "EconoMe" like e.g. the number of scenarios and expositions, vulnerability, spatial probability of processes and probability of presence of objects, are not existing. Additionally, the influences of uncertainty of calculation factors, like e.g. vulnerability, on the final results can be determined. "EconoMe-Develop" offers import and export of data, e.g. results of GIS-analysis. The possibility for adapting the tool to user specific requirements makes EconoMe-Develop an easy-to-use tool for risk assessment and assessment of economic efficiency of mitigation projects for risk experts. In the paper we will present the most important features of the tool and we will illustrate the application by a practical example.

  9. A Set of Web-based Tools for Integrating Scientific Research and Decision-Making through Systems Thinking

    EPA Science Inventory

    Currently, many policy and management decisions are made without considering the goods and services humans derive from ecosystems and the costs associated with protecting them. This approach is unlikely to be sustainable. Conceptual frameworks provide a tool for capturing, visual...

  10. Nanomaterial categorization for assessing risk potential to facilitate regulatory decision-making.

    PubMed

    Godwin, Hilary; Nameth, Catherine; Avery, David; Bergeson, Lynn L; Bernard, Daniel; Beryt, Elizabeth; Boyes, William; Brown, Scott; Clippinger, Amy J; Cohen, Yoram; Doa, Maria; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Holden, Patricia; Houck, Keith; Kane, Agnes B; Klaessig, Frederick; Kodas, Toivo; Landsiedel, Robert; Lynch, Iseult; Malloy, Timothy; Miller, Mary Beth; Muller, Julie; Oberdorster, Gunter; Petersen, Elijah J; Pleus, Richard C; Sayre, Philip; Stone, Vicki; Sullivan, Kristie M; Tentschert, Jutta; Wallis, Philip; Nel, Andre E

    2015-01-01

    For nanotechnology to meet its potential as a game-changing and sustainable technology, it is important to ensure that the engineered nanomaterials and nanoenabled products that gain entry to the marketplace are safe and effective. Tools and methods are needed for regulatory purposes to allow rapid material categorization according to human health and environmental risk potential, so that materials of high concern can be targeted for additional scrutiny, while material categories that pose the least risk can receive expedited review. Using carbon nanotubes as an example, we discuss how data from alternative testing strategies can be used to facilitate engineered nanomaterial categorization according to risk potential and how such an approach could facilitate regulatory decision-making in the future.

  11. Evaluation of Algorithms for a Miles-in-Trail Decision Support Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bloem, Michael; Hattaway, David; Bambos, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Four machine learning algorithms were prototyped and evaluated for use in a proposed decision support tool that would assist air traffic managers as they set Miles-in-Trail restrictions. The tool would display probabilities that each possible Miles-in-Trail value should be used in a given situation. The algorithms were evaluated with an expected Miles-in-Trail cost that assumes traffic managers set restrictions based on the tool-suggested probabilities. Basic Support Vector Machine, random forest, and decision tree algorithms were evaluated, as was a softmax regression algorithm that was modified to explicitly reduce the expected Miles-in-Trail cost. The algorithms were evaluated with data from the summer of 2011 for air traffic flows bound to the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) over the ARD, PENNS, and SHAFF fixes. The algorithms were provided with 18 input features that describe the weather at EWR, the runway configuration at EWR, the scheduled traffic demand at EWR and the fixes, and other traffic management initiatives in place at EWR. Features describing other traffic management initiatives at EWR and the weather at EWR achieved relatively high information gain scores, indicating that they are the most useful for estimating Miles-in-Trail. In spite of a high variance or over-fitting problem, the decision tree algorithm achieved the lowest expected Miles-in-Trail costs when the algorithms were evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with the summer 2011 data for these air traffic flows.

  12. NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

    2013-12-01

    provision of information that will help guide long-term preparedness for severe weather events and extreme conditions as well as climate variability and change GFCS recently summarized examples of existing initiatives to advance provision of climate services in the 2012 publication Climate ExChange. In this publication, NWS introduced the new Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), a tool that is used to conduct local climate studies that are needed to create efficient and reliable guidance for DSS. LCAT allows for analyzing trends in local climate variables and identifying local impacts of climate variability (e.g., ENSO) on weather and water conditions. In addition to LCAT, NWS, working in partnership with the North East Regional Climate center, released xmACIS version 2, a climate data mining tool, for NWS field operations. During this talk we will demonstrate LCAT and xmACIS as well as outline several examples of their application to DSS and its potential use for achieving GFCS goals. The examples include LCAT-based temperature analysis for energy decisions, guidance on weather and water events leading to increased algal blooms and red tide months in advance, local climate sensitivities to droughts, probabilities of hot/cold conditions and their potential impacts on agriculture and fish kills or fish stress.

  13. Tool for Ranking Research Options

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ortiz, James N.; Scott, Kelly; Smith, Harold

    2005-01-01

    Tool for Research Enhancement Decision Support (TREDS) is a computer program developed to assist managers in ranking options for research aboard the International Space Station (ISS). It could likely also be adapted to perform similar decision-support functions in industrial and academic settings. TREDS provides a ranking of the options, based on a quantifiable assessment of all the relevant programmatic decision factors of benefit, cost, and risk. The computation of the benefit for each option is based on a figure of merit (FOM) for ISS research capacity that incorporates both quantitative and qualitative inputs. Qualitative inputs are gathered and partly quantified by use of the time-tested analytical hierarchical process and used to set weighting factors in the FOM corresponding to priorities determined by the cognizant decision maker(s). Then by use of algorithms developed specifically for this application, TREDS adjusts the projected benefit for each option on the basis of levels of technical implementation, cost, and schedule risk. Based partly on Excel spreadsheets, TREDS provides screens for entering cost, benefit, and risk information. Drop-down boxes are provided for entry of qualitative information. TREDS produces graphical output in multiple formats that can be tailored by users.

  14. Rapid decision support tool based on novel ecosystem service variables for retrofitting of permeable pavement systems in the presence of trees.

    PubMed

    Scholz, Miklas; Uzomah, Vincent C

    2013-08-01

    The retrofitting of sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) such as permeable pavements is currently undertaken ad hoc using expert experience supported by minimal guidance based predominantly on hard engineering variables. There is a lack of practical decision support tools useful for a rapid assessment of the potential of ecosystem services when retrofitting permeable pavements in urban areas that either feature existing trees or should be planted with trees in the near future. Thus the aim of this paper is to develop an innovative rapid decision support tool based on novel ecosystem service variables for retrofitting of permeable pavement systems close to trees. This unique tool proposes the retrofitting of permeable pavements that obtained the highest ecosystem service score for a specific urban site enhanced by the presence of trees. This approach is based on a novel ecosystem service philosophy adapted to permeable pavements rather than on traditional engineering judgement associated with variables based on quick community and environment assessments. For an example case study area such as Greater Manchester, which was dominated by Sycamore and Common Lime, a comparison with the traditional approach of determining community and environment variables indicates that permeable pavements are generally a preferred SuDS option. Permeable pavements combined with urban trees received relatively high scores, because of their great potential impact in terms of water and air quality improvement, and flood control, respectively. The outcomes of this paper are likely to lead to more combined permeable pavement and tree systems in the urban landscape, which are beneficial for humans and the environment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. The decision to adopt evidence-based and other innovative mental health practices: risky business?

    PubMed

    Panzano, Phyllis C; Roth, Dee

    2006-08-01

    A risk-based decision-making framework was used to examine the decision to adopt innovative mental health practices, including both evidence-based and other research-guided practices. Seventy-eight projects involving decisions to adopt one of four innovative mental health practices were the focus of this study. Key informants with direct knowledge about the adoption decision provided data for hypothesis testing. As predicted, the propensity to adopt an innovative practice-as measured by decision stage-was negatively related to the perceived risk of adopting the practice, positively related to expected capacity to manage risk, and positively related to an organization's past propensity to take risks. Further, perceived risk, anticipated resource availability, and exposure to field-based evidence explained a substantial part of what differentiated adopters from nonadopters. Finally, several features of innovations known to influence innovation adoption decisions were found to be related in expected ways to perceived risk, capacity to manage risk, and risk propensity. This research supports the view that the decision to adopt an innovative mental health practice is a decision made in consideration of risk. Contrary to popular views that early adopters of innovations are willing to take enormous risks, these data offer the novel idea that early adopters act because they see the risks associated with adopting as lower than their nonadopter counterparts, partly because the risks are seen as more manageable. Implications of results are discussed for organizations considering adoption of innovative health care practices and for state or local mental health authorities hoping for a higher level of adoption in their areas.

  16. Grey situation group decision-making method based on prospect theory.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing

    2014-01-01

    This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.

  17. Lung cancer in symptomatic patients presenting in primary care: a systematic review of risk prediction tools

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt-Hansen, Mia; Berendse, Sabine; Hamilton, Willie; Baldwin, David R

    2017-01-01

    Background Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths. Around 70% of patients first presenting to specialist care have advanced disease, at which point current treatments have little effect on survival. The issue for primary care is how to recognise patients earlier and investigate appropriately. This requires an assessment of the risk of lung cancer. Aim The aim of this study was to systematically review the existing risk prediction tools for patients presenting in primary care with symptoms that may indicate lung cancer Design and setting Systematic review of primary care data. Method Medline, PreMedline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and ISI Proceedings (1980 to March 2016) were searched. The final list of included studies was agreed between two of the authors, who also appraised and summarised them. Results Seven studies with between 1482 and 2 406 127 patients were included. The tools were all based on UK primary care data, but differed in complexity of development, number/type of variables examined/included, and outcome time frame. There were four multivariable tools with internal validation area under the curves between 0.88 and 0.92. The tools all had a number of limitations, and none have been externally validated, or had their clinical and cost impact examined. Conclusion There is insufficient evidence for the recommendation of any one of the available risk prediction tools. However, some multivariable tools showed promising discrimination. What is needed to guide clinical practice is both external validation of the existing tools and a comparative study, so that the best tools can be incorporated into clinical decision tools used in primary care. PMID:28483820

  18. Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

    PubMed

    Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

    2017-09-05

    Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

  19. Risk factors and decision criteria for intensive chemotherapy in older patients with acute myeloid leukemia.

    PubMed

    Malfuson, Jean-Valère; Etienne, Anne; Turlure, Pascal; de Revel, Thierry; Thomas, Xavier; Contentin, Nathalie; Terré, Christine; Rigaudeau, Sophie; Bordessoule, Dominique; Vey, Norbert; Gardin, Claude; Dombret, Hervé

    2008-12-01

    There is a need for standardization of treatment decisions in older patients with acute myeloid leukemia. The aim of the present study was to analyze the decisional value of poor risk factors in 416 elderly patients treated in the ALFA-9803 trial in order to derive a decisional index. Standard multivariate analysis was used to identify risk factors for overall survival. Risk factors were then considered as good decision tools if associated with a frequency >10% and a false positive rate <10% in predicting overall survival as poor as observed after low-dose cytarabine therapy (25% survival or less at 12 months). Among six independent risk factors (age, performance status, white blood cell count, hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index, infection at baseline, and cytogenetics), cytogenetics was the only potent, independent decision tool. High hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index scores or infections were found too rarely to guide further decisions. The three other factors (age, performance status, and white cell count) needed to be combined to provide a good specificity. The proposed decisional index, therefore, included high-risk cytogenetics and/or the presence of at least two of the following criteria: age > or =75 years, performance status > or =2, and white cell count > or =50 x 10(9)/L. This simple two-class decisional index, which was validated in an independent patient set, enabled us to discriminate 100 patients (24%) who had an estimated overall survival of only 19% at 12 months, with a good 9% false positive rate. We propose waiting for cytogenetic information before making treatment decisions in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia. Those patients with unfavorable cytogenetics, as well as patients with at least two of the following features, age > or =75 years, performance status > or =2, and white cell count > or =50 x 10(9)/L, should not be considered for standard intensive chemotherapy (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier

  20. Dynamic fluctuations in dopamine efflux in the prefrontal cortex and nucleus accumbens during risk-based decision making.

    PubMed

    St Onge, Jennifer R; Ahn, Soyon; Phillips, Anthony G; Floresco, Stan B

    2012-11-21

    Mesocorticolimbic dopamine (DA) has been implicated in cost/benefit decision making about risks and rewards. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) and nucleus accumbens (NAc) are two DA terminal regions that contribute to decision making in distinct manners. However, how fluctuations of tonic DA levels may relate to different aspects of decision making remains to be determined. The present study measured DA efflux in the PFC and NAc with microdialysis in well trained rats performing a probabilistic discounting task. Selection of a small/certain option always delivered one pellet, whereas another, large/risky option yielded four pellets, with probabilities that decreased (100-12.5%) or increased (12.5-100%) across four blocks of trials. Yoked-reward groups were also included to control for reward delivery. PFC DA efflux during decision making decreased or increased over a session, corresponding to changes in large/risky reward probabilities. Similar profiles were observed from yoked-rewarded rats, suggesting that fluctuations in PFC DA reflect changes in the relative rate of reward received. NAc DA efflux also showed decreasing/increasing trends over the session during both tasks. However, DA efflux was higher during decision making on free- versus forced-choice trials and during periods of greater reward uncertainty. Moreover, changes in NAc DA closely tracked shifts in choice biases. These data reveal dynamic and dissociable fluctuations in PFC and NAc DA transmission associated with different aspects of risk-based decision making. PFC DA may signal changes in reward availability that facilitates modification of choice biases, whereas NAc DA encodes integrated signals about reward rates, uncertainty, and choice, reflecting implementation of decision policies.

  1. Risk assessment tools to identify women with increased risk of osteoporotic fracture: complexity or simplicity? A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Friis-Holmberg, Teresa; Hermann, Anne Pernille; Abrahamsen, Bo; Brixen, Kim

    2013-08-01

    A huge number of risk assessment tools have been developed. Far from all have been validated in external studies, more of them have absence of methodological and transparent evidence, and few are integrated in national guidelines. Therefore, we performed a systematic review to provide an overview of existing valid and reliable risk assessment tools for prediction of osteoporotic fractures. Additionally, we aimed to determine if the performance of each tool was sufficient for practical use, and last, to examine whether the complexity of the tools influenced their discriminative power. We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases for papers and evaluated these with respect to methodological quality using the Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) checklist. A total of 48 tools were identified; 20 had been externally validated, however, only six tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting with acceptable methodological quality. None of the tools performed consistently better than the others and simple tools (i.e., the Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool [OST], Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument [ORAI], and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator [Garvan]) often did as well or better than more complex tools (i.e., Simple Calculated Risk Estimation Score [SCORE], WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool [FRAX], and Qfracture). No studies determined the effectiveness of tools in selecting patients for therapy and thus improving fracture outcomes. High-quality studies in randomized design with population-based cohorts with different case mixes are needed. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  2. Presenting health risk information in different formats: the effect on participants' cognitive and emotional evaluation and decisions.

    PubMed

    Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; Ockhuysen-Vermey, Caroline F; Henneman, Lidewij

    2008-12-01

    Effective communication of health risks plays an important role in enabling patients to make adequate decisions. There is little--though contradictory--evidence to indicate which format is most effective for communicating risks, and which risk format is preferred by counselees. In an experiment, subjects were presented health scenarios and risk information in different formats (percentages, frequencies, and population figures) and asked to evaluate the risks and make a decision based on these. Different risk formats had different effects on respondents' evaluation of the health risks presented. Contrary to our expectation, population figures were not evaluated as being the easiest format for all decision problems. Population figures were shown to have the biggest affective impact, and risks presented as population figures were also evaluated as significantly greater than the risks presented in other formats. The format of the presented risks influenced their decision in only one out of four decision-making situations, although in a second situation there was a similar trend. This study suggests that the risk format plays a role in the decision-making process, although it remains unclear which format is the most effective in terms of understanding. More experimental studies based on a theoretical analysis of the factors that promote effective risk communication are needed in the general population as well as in clinical settings with patients actually experiencing the risks and making the decisions.

  3. Risk communication, geoethics and decision science issues in Japan's disaster management system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugimoto, M.

    2014-12-01

    Issues in Japan's disaster management system were revealed by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station accident. Many important decisions were based on scientific data, but appear not to have sufficiently considered the uncertainties of the data and the societal aspects of the problems. The issues that arose show the need for scientists to appropriately deal with risk communication and geoethics and issues. This paper discusses necessity of education for risk communication, geoethics and decisions science in school before students become sicentific decision makers in future.

  4. An electrophysiological index of changes in risk decision-making strategies

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Dandan; Gu, Ruolei; Wu, Tingting; Broster, Lucas S.; Luo, Yi; Jiang, Yang; Luo, Yue-jia

    2014-01-01

    Human decision-making is significantly modulated by previously experienced outcomes. Using event-related potentials (ERPs), we examined whether ERP components evoked by outcome feedbacks could serve as biomarkers to signal the influence of current outcome evaluation on subsequent decision-making. In this study, eighteen adult volunteers participated in a simple monetary gambling task, in which they were asked to choose between two options that differed in risk. Their decisions were immediately followed by outcome presentation. Temporospatial principle component analysis (PCA) was applied to the outcome-onset locked ERPs in the -200 – 1000 ms time window. The PCA factors that approximated classical ERP components (P2, feedback-related negativity, P3a, & P3b) in terms of time course and scalp distribution were tested for their association with subsequent decision-making strategies. Our results revealed that a fronto-central PCA factor approximating the classical P3a was related to changes of decision-making strategies on subsequent trials. The decision to switch between high- and low-risk options resulted in a larger P3a relative to the decision to retain the same choice. According to the results, we suggest the amplitude of the fronto-central P3a is an electrophysiological index of the influence of current outcome on subsequent risk decision-making. Furthermore, the ERP source analysis indicated that the activations of the frontopolar cortex and sensorimotor cortex were involved in subsequent changes of strategies, which enriches our understanding of the neural mechanisms of adjusting decision-making strategies based on previous experience. PMID:23643796

  5. Clinical Decision Support Tools for Osteoporosis Disease Management: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

    PubMed Central

    Straus, Sharon E.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND Studies indicate a gap between evidence and clinical practice in osteoporosis management. Tools that facilitate clinical decision making at the point of care are promising strategies for closing these practice gaps. OBJECTIVE To systematically review the literature to identify and describe the effectiveness of tools that support clinical decision making in osteoporosis disease management. DATA SOURCES Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, and EBM Reviews (CDSR, DARE, CCTR, and ACP J Club), and contact with experts in the field. REVIEW METHODS Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in any language from 1966 to July 2006 investigating disease management interventions in patients at risk for osteoporosis. Outcomes included fractures and bone mineral density (BMD) testing. Two investigators independently assessed articles for relevance and study quality, and extracted data using standardized forms. RESULTS Of 1,246 citations that were screened for relevance, 13 RCTs met the inclusion criteria. Reported study quality was generally poor. Meta-analysis was not done because of methodological and clinical heterogeneity; 77% of studies included a reminder or education as a component of their intervention. Three studies of reminders plus education targeted to physicians and patients showed increased BMD testing (RR range 1.43 to 8.67) and osteoporosis medication use (RR range 1.60 to 8.67). A physician reminder plus a patient risk assessment strategy found reduced fractures [RR 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37 to 0.90] and increased osteoporosis therapy (RR 2.44, CI 1.43 to 4.17). CONCLUSION Multi-component tools that are targeted to physicians and patients may be effective for supporting clinical decision making in osteoporosis disease management. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11606-008-0812-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:18836782

  6. A shared decision-making tool for obstructive sleep apnea without tonsillar hypertrophy: A randomized controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Bergeron, Mathieu; Duggins, Angela L; Cohen, Aliza P; Tiemeyer, Karin; Mullen, Lisa; Crisalli, Joseph; McArthur, Angela; Ishman, Stacey L

    2018-04-01

    Shared decision-making is a process whereby patients and clinicians jointly establish a treatment plan integrating clinical evidence and patient values and preferences. Although this approach has been successfully employed in numerous medical disciplines, often using shared decision-making tools, otolaryngologic research assessing its use is scant. Our primary objective was therefore to determine if the tools we developed reduced decisional conflict for children with obstructive sleep apnea without tonsillar hypertrophy. Prospective, single-blind, randomized controlled trial. We enrolled consecutive patients meeting inclusion criteria who were referred to our multidisciplinary upper airway center. Study patients used a shared decision-making tool whereas controls did not. Measures of decisional conflict (SURE [Sure of myself, Understanding information, Risk benefit ratio, Encouragement], CollaboRATE, and the Decisional Conflict Scale [DCS]) were obtained pre- and postvisit. We assessed 50 families (study group = 24, controls = 26). The mean age was 8.8 ± 6.6 years, 44% were female, 86% were white, and the mean obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was 12.7 ± 15.6 events/hour. The previsit mean DCS score was similar for controls (42.7) and study patients (40.8) (P = .38). The postvisit mean DCS score for controls was 13.3 and for study patients 6.1 (P = .034). Improvement in this score was greater in the study group (P = .03). At previsit evaluation, 63% of controls and 58% of study patients were unsure about their options. Postvisit, this improved to 4.1% and 0%, respectively. Families counseled regarding treatment options using shared decision-making tools had significantly less decisional conflict than those who did not use these tools. These positive outcomes suggest that clinicians should consider integrating this approach into clinical practice. 1b. Laryngoscope, 128:1007-1015, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  7. Promoting informed choice: evaluating a decision-making tool for family planning clients and providers in Mexico.

    PubMed

    Kim, Young Mi; Kols, Adrienne; Martin, Antonieta; Silva, David; Rinehart, Ward; Prammawat, Sarah; Johnson, Sarah; Church, Kathryn

    2005-12-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a decision-making tool to be used by providers and clients during family planning visits to improve the quality of services. It is important to examine the tool's usability and its impact on counseling and decision-making processes during family planning consultations. Thirteen providers in Mexico City were videotaped with family planning clients three months before and one month after attending a training session on the WHO decision-making tool. The videotapes were coded for client-provider communication and eye contact, and decision-making behaviors were rated. In-depth interviews and focus group discussions explored clients' and providers' opinions of the tool. After providers began using the decision-making tool, they gave clients more information on family planning, tailored that information more closely to clients' situations and more often discussed HIV/AIDS prevention, dual protection and condom use. Client involvement in the decision-making process and client active communication increased, contributing to a shift from provider-dominated to shared decision making. Clients reported that the tool helped them understand the provider's explanations and made them feel more comfortable talking and asking questions during consultations. After one month of practice with the decision-making tool, most providers felt comfortable with it and found it useful; however, they recommended some changes to the tool to help engage clients in the decision-making process. The decision-making tool was useful both as a job aid for providers and as a decision aid for clients.

  8. Usability evaluation of a clinical decision support tool for osteoporosis disease management.

    PubMed

    Kastner, Monika; Lottridge, Danielle; Marquez, Christine; Newton, David; Straus, Sharon E

    2010-12-10

    Osteoporosis affects over 200 million people worldwide at a high cost to healthcare systems. Although guidelines are available, patients are not receiving appropriate diagnostic testing or treatment. Findings from a systematic review of osteoporosis interventions and a series of focus groups were used to develop a functional multifaceted tool that can support clinical decision-making in osteoporosis disease management at the point of care. The objective of our study was to assess how well the prototype met functional goals and usability needs. We conducted a usability study for each component of the tool--the Best Practice Recommendation Prompt (BestPROMPT), the Risk Assessment Questionnaire (RAQ), and the Customised Osteoporosis Education (COPE) sheet--using the framework described by Kushniruk and Patel. All studies consisted of one-on-one sessions with a moderator using a standardised worksheet. Sessions were audio- and video-taped and transcribed verbatim. Data analysis consisted of a combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses. In study 1, physicians liked that the BestPROMPT can provide customised recommendations based on risk factors identified from the RAQ. Barriers included lack of time to use the tool, the need to alter clinic workflow to enable point-of-care use, and that the tool may disrupt the real reason for the visit. In study 2, patients completed the RAQ in a mean of 6 minutes, 35 seconds. Of the 42 critical incidents, 60% were navigational and most occurred when the first nine participants were using the stylus pen; no critical incidents were observed with the last six participants that used the touch screen. Patients thought that the RAQ questions were easy to read and understand, but they found it difficult to initiate the questionnaire. Suggestions for improvement included improving aspects of the interface and navigation. The results of study 3 showed that most patients were able to understand and describe sections of the COPE sheet

  9. Usability evaluation of a clinical decision support tool for osteoporosis disease management

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Osteoporosis affects over 200 million people worldwide at a high cost to healthcare systems. Although guidelines are available, patients are not receiving appropriate diagnostic testing or treatment. Findings from a systematic review of osteoporosis interventions and a series of focus groups were used to develop a functional multifaceted tool that can support clinical decision-making in osteoporosis disease management at the point of care. The objective of our study was to assess how well the prototype met functional goals and usability needs. Methods We conducted a usability study for each component of the tool--the Best Practice Recommendation Prompt (BestPROMPT), the Risk Assessment Questionnaire (RAQ), and the Customised Osteoporosis Education (COPE) sheet--using the framework described by Kushniruk and Patel. All studies consisted of one-on-one sessions with a moderator using a standardised worksheet. Sessions were audio- and video-taped and transcribed verbatim. Data analysis consisted of a combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses. Results In study 1, physicians liked that the BestPROMPT can provide customised recommendations based on risk factors identified from the RAQ. Barriers included lack of time to use the tool, the need to alter clinic workflow to enable point-of-care use, and that the tool may disrupt the real reason for the visit. In study 2, patients completed the RAQ in a mean of 6 minutes, 35 seconds. Of the 42 critical incidents, 60% were navigational and most occurred when the first nine participants were using the stylus pen; no critical incidents were observed with the last six participants that used the touch screen. Patients thought that the RAQ questions were easy to read and understand, but they found it difficult to initiate the questionnaire. Suggestions for improvement included improving aspects of the interface and navigation. The results of study 3 showed that most patients were able to understand and describe

  10. Grey Situation Group Decision-Making Method Based on Prospect Theory

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing

    2014-01-01

    This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example. PMID:25197706

  11. Prospect theory on the brain? Toward a cognitive neuroscience of decision under risk.

    PubMed

    Trepel, Christopher; Fox, Craig R; Poldrack, Russell A

    2005-04-01

    Most decisions must be made without advance knowledge of their consequences. Economists and psychologists have devoted much attention to modeling decisions made under conditions of risk in which options can be characterized by a known probability distribution over possible outcomes. The descriptive shortcomings of classical economic models motivated the development of prospect theory (D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 4 (1979) 263-291; A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5 (4) (1992) 297-323) the most successful behavioral model of decision under risk. In the prospect theory, subjective value is modeled by a value function that is concave for gains, convex for losses, and steeper for losses than for gains; the impact of probabilities are characterized by a weighting function that overweights low probabilities and underweights moderate to high probabilities. We outline the possible neural bases of the components of prospect theory, surveying evidence from human imaging, lesion, and neuropharmacology studies as well as animal neurophysiology studies. These results provide preliminary suggestions concerning the neural bases of prospect theory that include a broad set of brain regions and neuromodulatory systems. These data suggest that focused studies of decision making in the context of quantitative models may provide substantial leverage towards a fuller understanding of the cognitive neuroscience of decision making.

  12. The Environmental Protection Agency's Community-Focused Exposure and Risk Screening Tool (C-FERST) and its potential use for environmental justice efforts.

    PubMed

    Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D; Barzyk, Timothy M; Smuts, Marybeth; Hammond, Davyda M; Medina-Vera, Myriam; Geller, Andrew M

    2011-12-01

    Our primary objective was to provide higher quality, more accessible science to address challenges of characterizing local-scale exposures and risks for enhanced community-based assessments and environmental decision-making. After identifying community needs, priority environmental issues, and current tools, we designed and populated the Community-Focused Exposure and Risk Screening Tool (C-FERST) in collaboration with stakeholders, following a set of defined principles, and considered it in the context of environmental justice. C-FERST is a geographic information system and resource access Web tool under development for supporting multimedia community assessments. Community-level exposure and risk research is being conducted to address specific local issues through case studies. C-FERST can be applied to support environmental justice efforts. It incorporates research to develop community-level data and modeled estimates for priority environmental issues, and other relevant information identified by communities. Initial case studies are under way to refine and test the tool to expand its applicability and transferability. Opportunities exist for scientists to address the many research needs in characterizing local cumulative exposures and risks and for community partners to apply and refine C-FERST.

  13. MEETING IN CHICAGO: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  14. MEETING IN CZECH REPUBLIC: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  15. Design and Implementation of a Cloud Computing Adoption Decision Tool: Generating a Cloud Road.

    PubMed

    Bildosola, Iñaki; Río-Belver, Rosa; Cilleruelo, Ernesto; Garechana, Gaizka

    2015-01-01

    Migrating to cloud computing is one of the current enterprise challenges. This technology provides a new paradigm based on "on-demand payment" for information and communication technologies. In this sense, the small and medium enterprise is supposed to be the most interested, since initial investments are avoided and the technology allows gradual implementation. However, even if the characteristics and capacities have been widely discussed, entry into the cloud is still lacking in terms of practical, real frameworks. This paper aims at filling this gap, presenting a real tool already implemented and tested, which can be used as a cloud computing adoption decision tool. This tool uses diagnosis based on specific questions to gather the required information and subsequently provide the user with valuable information to deploy the business within the cloud, specifically in the form of Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions. This information allows the decision makers to generate their particular Cloud Road. A pilot study has been carried out with enterprises at a local level with a two-fold objective: to ascertain the degree of knowledge on cloud computing and to identify the most interesting business areas and their related tools for this technology. As expected, the results show high interest and low knowledge on this subject and the tool presented aims to readdress this mismatch, insofar as possible.

  16. Design and Implementation of a Cloud Computing Adoption Decision Tool: Generating a Cloud Road

    PubMed Central

    Bildosola, Iñaki; Río-Belver, Rosa; Cilleruelo, Ernesto; Garechana, Gaizka

    2015-01-01

    Migrating to cloud computing is one of the current enterprise challenges. This technology provides a new paradigm based on “on-demand payment” for information and communication technologies. In this sense, the small and medium enterprise is supposed to be the most interested, since initial investments are avoided and the technology allows gradual implementation. However, even if the characteristics and capacities have been widely discussed, entry into the cloud is still lacking in terms of practical, real frameworks. This paper aims at filling this gap, presenting a real tool already implemented and tested, which can be used as a cloud computing adoption decision tool. This tool uses diagnosis based on specific questions to gather the required information and subsequently provide the user with valuable information to deploy the business within the cloud, specifically in the form of Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions. This information allows the decision makers to generate their particular Cloud Road. A pilot study has been carried out with enterprises at a local level with a two-fold objective: to ascertain the degree of knowledge on cloud computing and to identify the most interesting business areas and their related tools for this technology. As expected, the results show high interest and low knowledge on this subject and the tool presented aims to readdress this mismatch, insofar as possible. PMID:26230400

  17. Assessment of cardiovascular risk based on a data-driven knowledge discovery approach.

    PubMed

    Mendes, D; Paredes, S; Rocha, T; Carvalho, P; Henriques, J; Cabiddu, R; Morais, J

    2015-01-01

    The cardioRisk project addresses the development of personalized risk assessment tools for patients who have been admitted to the hospital with acute myocardial infarction. Although there are models available that assess the short-term risk of death/new events for such patients, these models were established in circumstances that do not take into account the present clinical interventions and, in some cases, the risk factors used by such models are not easily available in clinical practice. The integration of the existing risk tools (applied in the clinician's daily practice) with data-driven knowledge discovery mechanisms based on data routinely collected during hospitalizations, will be a breakthrough in overcoming some of these difficulties. In this context, the development of simple and interpretable models (based on recent datasets), unquestionably will facilitate and will introduce confidence in this integration process. In this work, a simple and interpretable model based on a real dataset is proposed. It consists of a decision tree model structure that uses a reduced set of six binary risk factors. The validation is performed using a recent dataset provided by the Portuguese Society of Cardiology (11113 patients), which originally comprised 77 risk factors. A sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of, respectively, 80.42%, 77.25% and 78.80% were achieved showing the effectiveness of the approach.

  18. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  19. Knowledge Visualizations: A Tool to Achieve Optimized Operational Decision Making and Data Integration

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-06-01

    Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS) without any integration with Accumulo-based Knowledge Stores based on OWL/RDF. 4. Cloud Based The Apache Software...BTW, 7(12), pp. 227–241. Godin, A. & Akins, D. (2014). Extending DCGS-N naval tactical clouds from in-storage to in-memory for the integrated fires...VISUALIZATIONS: A TOOL TO ACHIEVE OPTIMIZED OPERATIONAL DECISION MAKING AND DATA INTEGRATION by Paul C. Hudson Jeffrey A. Rzasa June 2015 Thesis

  20. A decision model to predict the risk of the first fall onset.

    PubMed

    Deschamps, Thibault; Le Goff, Camille G; Berrut, Gilles; Cornu, Christophe; Mignardot, Jean-Baptiste

    2016-08-01

    Miscellaneous features from various domains are accepted to be associated with the risk of falling in the elderly. However, only few studies have focused on establishing clinical tools to predict the risk of the first fall onset. A model that would objectively and easily evaluate the risk of a first fall occurrence in the coming year still needs to be built. We developed a model based on machine learning, which might help the medical staff predict the risk of the first fall onset in a one-year time window. Overall, 426 older adults who had never fallen were assessed on 73 variables, comprising medical, social and physical outcomes, at t0. Each fall was recorded at a prospective 1-year follow-up. A decision tree was built on a randomly selected training subset of the cohort (80% of the full-set) and validated on an independent test set. 82 participants experienced a first fall during the follow-up. The machine learning process independently extracted 13 powerful parameters and built a model showing 89% of accuracy for the overall classification with 83%-82% of true positive fallers and 96%-61% of true negative non-fallers (training set vs. independent test set). This study provides a pilot tool that could easily help the gerontologists refine the evaluation of the risk of the first fall onset and prioritize the effective prevention strategies. The study also offers a transparent framework for future, related investigation that would validate the clinical relevance of the established model by independently testing its accuracy on larger cohort. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Decision blocks: A tool for automating decision making in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eick, Christoph F.; Mehta, Nikhil N.

    1991-01-01

    The human capability of making complex decision is one of the most fascinating facets of human intelligence, especially if vague, judgemental, default or uncertain knowledge is involved. Unfortunately, most existing rule based forward chaining languages are not very suitable to simulate this aspect of human intelligence, because of their lack of support for approximate reasoning techniques needed for this task, and due to the lack of specific constructs to facilitate the coding of frequently reoccurring decision block to provide better support for the design and implementation of rule based decision support systems. A language called BIRBAL, which is defined on the top of CLIPS, for the specification of decision blocks, is introduced. Empirical experiments involving the comparison of the length of CLIPS program with the corresponding BIRBAL program for three different applications are surveyed. The results of these experiments suggest that for decision making intensive applications, a CLIPS program tends to be about three times longer than the corresponding BIRBAL program.

  2. How Numeracy Influences Risk Comprehension and Medical Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Dieckmann, Nathan F.

    2009-01-01

    We review the growing literature on health numeracy, the ability to understand and use numerical information, and its relation to cognition, health behaviors, and medical outcomes. Despite the surfeit of health information from commercial and noncommercial sources, national and international surveys show that many people lack basic numerical skills that are essential to maintain their health and make informed medical decisions. Low numeracy distorts perceptions of risks and benefits of screening, reduces medication compliance, impedes access to treatments, impairs risk communication (limiting prevention efforts among the most vulnerable), and, based on the scant research conducted on outcomes, appears to adversely affect medical outcomes. Low numeracy is also associated with greater susceptibility to extraneous factors (i.e., factors that do not change the objective numerical information). That is, low numeracy increases susceptibility to effects of mood or how information is presented (e.g., as frequencies vs. percentages) and to biases in judgment and decision making (e.g., framing and ratio bias effects). Much of this research is not grounded in empirically supported theories of numeracy or mathematical cognition, which are crucial for designing evidence-based policies and interventions that are effective in reducing risk and improving medical decision making. To address this gap, we outline four theoretical approaches (psychophysical, computational, standard dual-process, and fuzzy trace theory), review their implications for numeracy, and point to avenues for future research. PMID:19883143

  3. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age - A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions.

    PubMed

    Liebherr, Magnus; Schiebener, Johannes; Averbeck, Heike; Brand, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors - responsible for age-related differences in decision making - are additionally pointed out.

  4. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular

  5. Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

    PubMed

    Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J; Barton, Jason J S

    2012-01-01

    There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

  6. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  7. Enhancement of the EPA Stormwater BMP Decision-Support Tool (SUSTAIN)

    EPA Science Inventory

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been developing and improving a decision-support tool for placement of stormwater best management practices (BMPs) at strategic locations in urban watersheds. The tool is called the System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis...

  8. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  9. Assigning Treatment to HCC Patients for Transplantation: Utility of a New Decision-Making Tool.

    PubMed

    Shah, Najmul Hassan; Dar, Faisal Saud; Bhatti, Abu Bakar Hafeez; Rana, Atif; Salih, Mohammad

    2016-10-28

    BACKGROUND The Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) staging system is considered the standard of care for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) management. It has various limitations, including lack of second-line treatment options and combination therapy. We prospectively collected data on our HCC patients based on a new decision-making tool (NDT). The objective of this study was to determine the applicability of this tool and compare it with BCLC for treatment allocation, in particular with respect to liver transplantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS We retrospectively reviewed HCC patients who were managed based on an NDT that was developed in 2012. All patients whose treatment decision was based on this tool between 2012 and 2015 were included. Comparison was made with BCLC. Survival was compared for patients who underwent liver transplantation. RESULTS Based on the NDT, 406 (40.6%) patients were eligible for curative treatment versus only 22 (2.2%) patients based on BCLC. A total of 58 (5.8%) patients underwent liver transplant based on the NDT, while only 2 (0.2%) were transplantable based on BCLC. Estimated 3-year survival for transplanted patients based on the NDT was 73%. There were 41 (4.1%) stage C and 15 (1.5%) stage D BCLC patients who received transplant based on the NDT. Estimated 3-year survival for stage A, C, and D BCLC patients who received transplantation was 100%,72%, and 67%, respectively (P=0.6). CONCLUSIONS The NDT correctly identified a group of HCC patients for liver transplantation who would otherwise have received palliative treatment based on the BCLC algorithm.

  10. ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Paul W.

    2008-01-01

    ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

  11. An electrophysiological index of changes in risk decision-making strategies.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dandan; Gu, Ruolei; Wu, Tingting; Broster, Lucas S; Luo, Yi; Jiang, Yang; Luo, Yue-jia

    2013-07-01

    Human decision-making is significantly modulated by previously experienced outcomes. Using event-related potentials (ERPs), we examined whether ERP components evoked by outcome feedbacks could serve as biomarkers to signal the influence of current outcome evaluation on subsequent decision-making. In this study, 18 adult volunteers participated in a simple monetary gambling task, in which they were asked to choose between two options that differed in risk. Their decisions were immediately followed by outcome presentation. Temporospatial principle component analysis (PCA) was applied to the outcome-onset locked ERPs in the 200-1000 ms time window. The PCA factors that approximated classical ERP components (P2, feedback-related negativity, P3a, and P3b) in terms of time course and scalp distribution were tested for their association with subsequent decision-making strategies. Our results revealed that a fronto-central PCA factor approximating the classical P3a was related to changes of decision-making strategies on subsequent trials. The decision to switch between high- and low-risk options resulted in a larger P3a relative to the decision to retain the same choice. According to the results, we suggest that the amplitude of the fronto-central P3a is an electrophysiological index of the influence of current outcome on subsequent risk decision-making. Furthermore, the ERP source analysis indicated that the activations of the frontopolar cortex and sensorimotor cortex were involved in subsequent changes of strategies, which enriches our understanding of the neural mechanisms of adjusting decision-making strategies based on previous experience. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Development of an Electronic Medical Record-Based Clinical Decision Support Tool to Improve HIV Symptom Management

    PubMed Central

    Tsevat, Joel; Justice, Amy C.; Mrus, Joseph M.; Levin, Forrest; Kozal, Michael J.; Mattocks, Kristin; Farber, Steven; Rogers, Michelle; Erdos, Joseph; Brandt, Cynthia; Kudel, Ian; Braithwaite, Ronald

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Common symptoms associated with HIV disease and its management are often underrecognized and undertreated. A clinical decision support tool for symptom management was developed within the Veterans Health Administration electronic medical record (EMR), aiming at increasing provider awareness of and response to common HIV symptoms. Its feasibility was studied in March to May 2007 by implementing it within a weekly HIV clinic, comparing a 4-week intervention period with a 4-week control period. Fifty-six patients and their providers participated in the study. Patients' perceptions of providers' awareness of their symptoms, proportion of progress notes mentioning any symptom(s) and proportion of care plans mentioning any symptom(s) were measured. The clinical decision support tool used portable electronic “tablets” to elicit symptom information at the time of check-in, filtered, and organized that information into a concise and clinically relevant EMR note available at the point of care, and facilitated clinical responses to that information. It appeared to be well accepted by patients and providers and did not substantially impact workflow. Although this pilot study was not powered to detect effectiveness, 25 (93%) patients in the intervention group reported that their providers were very aware of their symptoms versuas 27 (75%) control patients (p = 0.07). The proportion of providers' notes listing symptoms was similar in both periods; however, there was a trend toward including a greater number of symptoms in intervention period progress notes. The symptom support tool seemed to be useful in clinical HIV care. The Veterans Health Administration EMR may be an effective “laboratory” for developing and testing decision supports. PMID:19538046

  13. Guiding resource allocations based on terrorism risk.

    PubMed

    Willis, Henry H

    2007-06-01

    Establishing tolerable levels of risk is one of the most contentious and important risk management decisions. With every regulatory or funding decision for a risk management program, society decides whether or not risk is tolerable. The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) is a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) grant program designed to enhance security and overall preparedness to prevent, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism by providing financial assistance for planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas. After briefly reviewing definitions of terrorism risk and rationales for risk-based resource allocation, this article compares estimates of terrorism risk in urban areas that received UASI funding in 2004 to other federal risk management decisions. This comparison suggests that UASI allocations are generally consistent with other federal risk management decisions. However, terrorism risk in several cities that received funding is below levels that are often tolerated in other risk management contexts. There are several reasons why the conclusions about terrorism risk being de minimis in specific cities should be challenged. Some of these surround the means used to estimate terrorism risk for this study. Others involve the comparison that is made to other risk management decisions. However, many of the observations reported are valid even if reported terrorism risk estimates are several orders of magnitude too low. Discussion of resource allocation should be extended to address risk tolerance and include explicit comparisons, like those presented here, to other risk management decisions.

  14. Caries risk assessment tool and prevention protocol for public health nurses in mother and child health centers, Israel.

    PubMed

    Natapov, Lena; Dekel-Markovich, Dan; Granit-Palmon, Hadas; Aflalo, Efrat; Zusman, Shlomo Paul

    2018-01-01

    Dental caries is the most prevalent chronic disease in children. Caries risk assessment tools enable the dentists, physicians, and nondental health care providers to assess the individual's risk. Intervention by nurses in primary care settings can contribute to the establishment of oral health habits and prevention of dental disease. In Israel, Mother and Child Health Centers provide free preventive services for pregnant women and children by public health nurses. A caries prevention program in health centers started in 2015. Nurses underwent special training regarding caries prevention. A customized Caries Risk Assessment tool and Prevention Protocol for nurses, based on the AAPD tool, was introduced. A two-step evaluation was conducted which included a questionnaire and in-depth phone interviews. Twenty-eight (out of 46) health centers returned a completed questionnaire. Most nurses believed that oral health preventive services should be incorporated into their daily work. In the in-depth phone interviews, nurses stated that the integration of the program into their busy daily schedule was realistic and appropriate. The lack of specific dental module for computer program was mentioned as an implementation difficulty. The wide use of our tool by nurses supports its simplicity and feasibility which enables quick calculation and informed decision making. The nurses readily embraced the tool and it became an integral part of their toolkit. We provide public health nurses with a caries risk assessment tool and prevention protocol thus integrating oral health into general health of infants and toddlers. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Decisions for Others Are Less Risk-Averse in the Gain Frame and Less Risk-Seeking in the Loss Frame Than Decisions for the Self

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xiangyi; Liu, Yi; Chen, Xiyou; Shang, Xuesong; Liu, Yongfang

    2017-01-01

    Despite the fact that people make decisions for others as often as they make decisions for themselves, little is known about how decisions for others are different from those made for the self. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of social distance (i.e., making decisions for oneself, a friend, or a stranger) on risk preferences in both gain and loss situations. We found that people were more risk averse in gain situations when they made decisions for themselves than for a stranger (Studies 1 and 2), but were equally risk averse for themselves and their friends (Study 2). However, people were more risk seeking in loss situations when they made decisions for themselves than for their friends as well as for a stranger, and were more risk seeking for their friends than for a stranger (Study 2). Furthermore, the effect of social distance on risk preferences was stronger in loss than in gain situations. Mediation analysis indicated that outcome-induced loss aversion was responsible for effects of social distance on risk preferences. These findings demonstrate that social distance influences risk preferences via perceived loss aversion, which sheds new light on self-other differences in decision making. PMID:28966604

  16. Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Volz, Kirsten G.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2012-01-01

    We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (“small world”), all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (“large”) worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries), with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift toward studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples. PMID:22807893

  17. Engineering a mobile health tool for resource-poor settings to assess and manage cardiovascular disease risk: SMARThealth study.

    PubMed

    Raghu, Arvind; Praveen, Devarsetty; Peiris, David; Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifford, Gari

    2015-04-29

    The incidence of chronic diseases in low- and middle-income countries is rapidly increasing both in urban and rural regions. A major challenge for health systems globally is to develop innovative solutions for the prevention and control of these diseases. This paper discusses the development and pilot testing of SMARTHealth, a mobile-based, point-of-care Clinical Decision Support (CDS) tool to assess and manage cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in resource-constrained settings. Through pilot testing, the preliminary acceptability, utility, and efficiency of the CDS tool was obtained. The CDS tool was part of an mHealth system comprising a mobile application that consisted of an evidence-based risk prediction and management algorithm, and a server-side electronic medical record system. Through an agile development process and user-centred design approach, key features of the mobile application that fitted the requirements of the end users and environment were obtained. A comprehensive analytics framework facilitated a data-driven approach to investigate four areas, namely, system efficiency, end-user variability, manual data entry errors, and usefulness of point-of-care management recommendations to the healthcare worker. A four-point Likert scale was used at the end of every risk assessment to gauge ease-of-use of the system. The system was field-tested with eleven village healthcare workers and three Primary Health Centre doctors, who screened a total of 292 adults aged 40 years and above. 34% of participants screened by health workers were identified by the CDS tool to be high CVD risk and referred to a doctor. In-depth analysis of user interactions found the CDS tool feasible for use and easily integrable into the workflow of healthcare workers. Following completion of the pilot, further technical enhancements were implemented to improve uptake of the mHealth platform. It will then be evaluated for effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in a cluster randomized

  18. Design and usability of heuristic-based deliberation tools for women facing amniocentesis.

    PubMed

    Durand, Marie-Anne; Wegwarth, Odette; Boivin, Jacky; Elwyn, Glyn

    2012-03-01

    Evidence suggests that in decision contexts characterized by uncertainty and time constraints (e.g. health-care decisions), fast and frugal decision-making strategies (heuristics) may perform better than complex rules of reasoning. To examine whether it is possible to design deliberation components in decision support interventions using simple models (fast and frugal heuristics). The 'Take The Best' heuristic (i.e. selection of a 'most important reason') and 'The Tallying' integration algorithm (i.e. unitary weighing of pros and cons) were used to develop two deliberation components embedded in a Web-based decision support intervention for women facing amniocentesis testing. Ten researchers (recruited from 15), nine health-care providers (recruited from 28) and ten pregnant women (recruited from 14) who had recently been offered amniocentesis testing appraised evolving versions of 'your most important reason' (Take The Best) and 'weighing it up' (Tallying). Most researchers found the tools useful in facilitating decision making although emphasized the need for simple instructions and clear layouts. Health-care providers however expressed concerns regarding the usability and clarity of the tools. By contrast, 7 out of 10 pregnant women found the tools useful in weighing up the pros and cons of each option, helpful in structuring and clarifying their thoughts and visualizing their decision efforts. Several pregnant women felt that 'weighing it up' and 'your most important reason' were not appropriate when facing such a difficult and emotional decision. Theoretical approaches based on fast and frugal heuristics can be used to develop deliberation tools that provide helpful support to patients facing real-world decisions about amniocentesis. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. Decision support tool for used oil regeneration technologies assessment and selection.

    PubMed

    Khelifi, Olfa; Dalla Giovanna, Fabio; Vranes, Sanja; Lodolo, Andrea; Miertus, Stanislav

    2006-09-01

    Regeneration is the most efficient way of managing used oil. It saves money by preventing costly cleanups and liabilities that are associated with mismanagement of used oil, it helps to protect the environment and it produces a technically renewable resource by enabling an indefinite recycling potential. There are a variety of processes and licensors currently offering ways to deal with used oils. Selecting a regeneration technology for used oil involves "cross-matching" key criteria. Therefore, the first prototype of spent oil regeneration (SPORE), a decision support tool, has been developed to help decision-makers to assess the available technologies and select the preferred used oil regeneration options. The analysis is based on technical, economical and environmental criteria. These criteria are ranked to determine their relative importance for a particular used oil regeneration project. The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is the core of the SPORE using the PROMETHEE II algorithm.

  20. On Risk: Risk and Decision Making in Military Combat and Training Environments

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-12-01

    DECISION MAKING IN MILITARY COMBAT AND TRAINING ENVIRONMENTS by Matthew R. Myer Jason R. Lojka December 2012 Thesis Advisor...SUBTITLE ON RISK: RISK AND DECISION MAKING IN MILITARY COMBAT AND TRAINING ENVIRONMENTS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Matthew R. Myer and Jason R...of the nation that has sent them abroad. It is paramount, therefore, that we utilize a decision process to reveal how emotions can affect our

  1. Protocol-based care: the standardisation of decision-making?

    PubMed

    Rycroft-Malone, Jo; Fontenla, Marina; Seers, Kate; Bick, Debra

    2009-05-01

    To explore how protocol-based care affects clinical decision-making. In the context of evidence-based practice, protocol-based care is a mechanism for facilitating the standardisation of care and streamlining decision-making through rationalising the information with which to make judgements and ultimately decisions. However, whether protocol-based care does, in the reality of practice, standardise decision-making is unknown. This paper reports on a study that explored the impact of protocol-based care on nurses' decision-making. Theoretically informed by realistic evaluation and the promoting action on research implementation in health services framework, a case study design using ethnographic methods was used. Two sites were purposively sampled; a diabetic and endocrine unit and a cardiac medical unit. Within each site, data collection included observation, postobservation semi-structured interviews with staff and patients, field notes, feedback sessions and document review. Data were inductively and thematically analysed. Decisions made by nurses in both sites were varied according to many different and interacting factors. While several standardised care approaches were available for use, in reality, a variety of information sources informed decision-making. The primary approach to knowledge exchange and acquisition was person-to-person; decision-making was a social activity. Rarely were standardised care approaches obviously referred to; nurses described following a mental flowchart, not necessarily linked to a particular guideline or protocol. When standardised care approaches were used, it was reported that they were used flexibly and particularised. While the logic of protocol-based care is algorithmic, in the reality of clinical practice, other sources of information supported nurses' decision-making process. This has significant implications for the political goal of standardisation. The successful implementation and judicious use of tools such as

  2. Moving toward comprehensive acute heart failure risk assessment in the emergency department: the importance of self-care and shared decision making.

    PubMed

    Collins, Sean P; Storrow, Alan B

    2013-08-01

    Nearly 700,000 emergency department (ED) visits were due to acute heart failure (AHF) in 2009. Most visits result in a hospital admission and account for the largest proportion of a projected $70 billion to be spent on heart failure care by 2030. ED-based risk prediction tools in AHF rarely impact disposition decision making. This is a major factor contributing to the 80% admission rate for ED patients with AHF, which has remained unchanged over the last several years. Self-care behaviors such as symptom monitoring, medication taking, dietary adherence, and exercise have been associated with decreased hospital readmissions, yet self-care remains largely unaddressed in ED patients with AHF and thus represents a significant lost opportunity to improve patient care and decrease ED visits and hospitalizations. Furthermore, shared decision making encourages collaborative interaction between patients, caregivers, and providers to drive a care path based on mutual agreement. The observation that “difficult decisions now will simplify difficult decisions later” has particular relevance to the ED, given this is the venue for many such issues. We hypothesize patients as complex and heterogeneous as ED patients with AHF may need both an objective evaluation of physiologic risk as well as an evaluation of barriers to ideal self-care, along with strategies to overcome these barriers. Combining physician gestalt, physiologic risk prediction instruments, an evaluation of self-care, and an information exchange between patient and provider using shared decision making may provide the critical inertia necessary to discharge patients home after a brief ED evaluation.

  3. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    substances, helping in the management of the crisis, in the distribution of response resources, or prioritizing specific areas. They can also be used for detection of pollution sources. However, the resources involved, and the scientific and technological levels needed in the manipulation of numerical models, had both limited the interoperability between operational models, monitoring tools and decision-support software tools. The increasing predictive capacity of metocean conditions and fate and behaviour of pollutants spilt at sea or costal zones, and the presence of monitoring tools like vessel traffic control systems, can both provide a safer support for decision-making in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risk management, especially if used in an integrated way. Following this approach, and taking advantage of an integrated framework developed in ARCOPOL (www.arcopol.eu) and EASYCO (www.project-easy.info) projects, three innovative model-supported software tools were developed and applied in the Atlantic Area, and / or the Portuguese Coast. Two of these tools are used for spill model simulations - a web-based interface (EASYCO web bidirectional tool) and an advanced desktop application (MOHID Desktop Spill Simulator) - both of them allowing end user to have control over the model simulations. Parameters such as date and time of the event, location and oil spill volume are provided the users; these interactive tools also integrate best available metocean forecasts (waves, meteorological, hydrodynamics) from different institutions in the Atlantic Area. Metocean data are continuously gathered from remote THREDDS data servers (using OPENDAP) or ftp sites, and then automatically interpolated and pre-processed to be available for the simulators. These simulation tools developed can also import initial data and export results from/to remote servers, using OGC WFS services. Simulations are provided to end user in a matter of seconds, and thus, can be very

  4. Verification and Validation of NASA-Supported Enhancements to Decision Support Tools of PECAD

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, Kenton W.; McKellip, Rodney; Moore, Roxzana F.; Fendley, Debbie

    2005-01-01

    This section of the evaluation report summarizes the verification and validation (V&V) of recently implemented, NASA-supported enhancements to the decision support tools of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD). The implemented enhancements include operationally tailored Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and products of the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM). The MODIS products are currently made available through two separate decision support tools: the MODIS Image Gallery and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Database. Both the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor and MODIS Image Gallery provide near-real-time products through PECAD's CropExplorer. This discussion addresses two areas: 1. Assessments of the standard NASA products on which these enhancements are based. 2. Characterizations of the performance of the new operational products.

  5. Redefining risk research priorities for nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grieger, Khara D.; Baun, Anders; Owen, Richard

    2010-02-01

    Chemical-based risk assessment underpins the current approach to responsible development of nanomaterials (NM). It is now recognised, however, that this process may take decades, leaving decision makers with little support in the near term. Despite this, current and near future research efforts are largely directed at establishing (eco)toxicological and exposure data for NM, and comparatively little research has been undertaken on tools or approaches that may facilitate near-term decisions, some of which we briefly outline in this analysis. We propose a reprioritisation of NM risk research efforts to redress this imbalance, including the development of more adaptive risk governance frameworks, alternative/complementary tools to risk assessment, and health and environment surveillance.

  6. Decision Tree Analysis of Traditional Risk Factors of Carotid Atherosclerosis and a Cutpoint-Based Prevention Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Lv, Lihong; Xiao, Yufei; Tu, Jiangfeng; Tao, Lisha; Wu, Jiaqi; Tang, Xiaoxiao; Pan, Wensheng

    2014-01-01

    Background Reducing the exposure to risk factors for the prevention of cardio-cerebral vascular disease is a crucial issue. Few reports have described practical interventions for preventing cardiovascular disease in different genders and age groups, particularly detailed and specific cutpoint-based prevention strategies. Methods We collected the health examination data of 5822 subjects between 20 and 80 years of age. The administration of medical questionnaires and physical examinations and the measurement of blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and blood lipids [total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein–cholesterol (HDL-C), and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C)] were performed by physicians. Carotid ultrasound was performed to examine the carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), which was defined as carotid atherosclerosis when CIMT ≥0.9 mm. Decision tree analysis was used to screen for the most important risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis and to identify the relevant cutpoints. Results In the study population, the incidence of carotid atherosclerosis was 12.20% (men: 14.10%, women: 9.20%). The statistical analysis showed significant differences in carotid atherosclerosis incidence between different genders (P<0.0001) and age groups (P<0.001). The decision tree analysis showed that in men, the most important traditional risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis were TC (cutpoint [CP]: 6.31 mmol/L) between the ages of 20–40 and FPG (CP: 5.79 mmol/L) between the ages of 41–59. By comparison, LDL-C (CP: 4.27 mmol/L) became the major risk factor when FPG ≤5.79 mmol/L. FPG (CP: 5.52 mmol/L) and TG (CP: 1.51 mmol/L) were the most important traditional risk factors for women between 20–40 and 41–59 years of age, respectively. Conclusion Traditional risk factors and relevant cutpoints were not identical in different genders and age groups. A specific gender and age group-based cutpoint strategy might contribute

  7. Investigating the Heart Pump Implant Decision Process: Opportunities for Decision Support Tools to Help

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Qian; Zimmerman, John; Steinfeld, Aaron; Carey, Lisa; Antaki, James F.

    2016-01-01

    Clinical decision support tools (DSTs) are computational systems that aid healthcare decision-making. While effective in labs, almost all these systems failed when they moved into clinical practice. Healthcare researchers speculated it is most likely due to a lack of user-centered HCI considerations in the design of these systems. This paper describes a field study investigating how clinicians make a heart pump implant decision with a focus on how to best integrate an intelligent DST into their work process. Our findings reveal a lack of perceived need for and trust of machine intelligence, as well as many barriers to computer use at the point of clinical decision-making. These findings suggest an alternative perspective to the traditional use models, in which clinicians engage with DSTs at the point of making a decision. We identify situations across patients’ healthcare trajectories when decision supports would help, and we discuss new forms it might take in these situations. PMID:27833397

  8. Development of a prototype clinical decision support tool for osteoporosis disease management: a qualitative study of focus groups.

    PubMed

    Kastner, Monika; Li, Jamy; Lottridge, Danielle; Marquez, Christine; Newton, David; Straus, Sharon E

    2010-07-22

    Osteoporosis affects over 200 million people worldwide, and represents a significant cost burden. Although guidelines are available for best practice in osteoporosis, evidence indicates that patients are not receiving appropriate diagnostic testing or treatment according to guidelines. The use of clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) may be one solution because they can facilitate knowledge translation by providing high-quality evidence at the point of care. Findings from a systematic review of osteoporosis interventions and consultation with clinical and human factors engineering experts were used to develop a conceptual model of an osteoporosis tool. We conducted a qualitative study of focus groups to better understand physicians' perceptions of CDSSs and to transform the conceptual osteoporosis tool into a functional prototype that can support clinical decision making in osteoporosis disease management at the point of care. The conceptual design of the osteoporosis tool was tested in 4 progressive focus groups with family physicians and general internists. An iterative strategy was used to qualitatively explore the experiences of physicians with CDSSs; and to find out what features, functions, and evidence should be included in a working prototype. Focus groups were conducted using a semi-structured interview guide using an iterative process where results of the first focus group informed changes to the questions for subsequent focus groups and to the conceptual tool design. Transcripts were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using grounded theory methodology. Of the 3 broad categories of themes that were identified, major barriers related to the accuracy and feasibility of extracting bone mineral density test results and medications from the risk assessment questionnaire; using an electronic input device such as a Tablet PC in the waiting room; and the importance of including well-balanced information in the patient education component of the osteoporosis

  9. Development of a prototype clinical decision support tool for osteoporosis disease management: a qualitative study of focus groups

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Osteoporosis affects over 200 million people worldwide, and represents a significant cost burden. Although guidelines are available for best practice in osteoporosis, evidence indicates that patients are not receiving appropriate diagnostic testing or treatment according to guidelines. The use of clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) may be one solution because they can facilitate knowledge translation by providing high-quality evidence at the point of care. Findings from a systematic review of osteoporosis interventions and consultation with clinical and human factors engineering experts were used to develop a conceptual model of an osteoporosis tool. We conducted a qualitative study of focus groups to better understand physicians' perceptions of CDSSs and to transform the conceptual osteoporosis tool into a functional prototype that can support clinical decision making in osteoporosis disease management at the point of care. Methods The conceptual design of the osteoporosis tool was tested in 4 progressive focus groups with family physicians and general internists. An iterative strategy was used to qualitatively explore the experiences of physicians with CDSSs; and to find out what features, functions, and evidence should be included in a working prototype. Focus groups were conducted using a semi-structured interview guide using an iterative process where results of the first focus group informed changes to the questions for subsequent focus groups and to the conceptual tool design. Transcripts were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using grounded theory methodology. Results Of the 3 broad categories of themes that were identified, major barriers related to the accuracy and feasibility of extracting bone mineral density test results and medications from the risk assessment questionnaire; using an electronic input device such as a Tablet PC in the waiting room; and the importance of including well-balanced information in the patient education

  10. A web-based clinical decision tool to support treatment decision-making in psychiatry: a pilot focus group study with clinicians, patients and carers.

    PubMed

    Henshall, Catherine; Marzano, Lisa; Smith, Katharine; Attenburrow, Mary-Jane; Puntis, Stephen; Zlodre, Jakov; Kelly, Kathleen; Broome, Matthew R; Shaw, Susan; Barrera, Alvaro; Molodynski, Andrew; Reid, Alastair; Geddes, John R; Cipriani, Andrea

    2017-07-21

    Treatment decision tools have been developed in many fields of medicine, including psychiatry, however benefits for patients have not been sustained once the support is withdrawn. We have developed a web-based computerised clinical decision support tool (CDST), which can provide patients and clinicians with continuous, up-to-date, personalised information about the efficacy and tolerability of competing interventions. To test the feasibility and acceptability of the CDST we conducted a focus group study, aimed to explore the views of clinicians, patients and carers. The CDST was developed in Oxford. To tailor treatments at an individual level, the CDST combines the best available evidence from the scientific literature with patient preferences and values, and with patient medical profile to generate personalised clinical recommendations. We conducted three focus groups comprising of three different participant types: consultant psychiatrists, participants with a mental health diagnosis and/or experience of caring for someone with a mental health diagnosis, and primary care practitioners and nurses. Each 1-h focus group started with a short visual demonstration of the CDST. To standardise the discussion during the focus groups, we used the same topic guide that covered themes relating to the acceptability and usability of the CDST. Focus groups were recorded and any identifying participant details were anonymised. Data were analysed thematically and managed using the Framework method and the constant comparative method. The focus groups took place in Oxford between October 2016 and January 2017. Overall 31 participants attended (12 consultants, 11 primary care practitioners and 8 patients or carers). The main themes that emerged related to CDST applications in clinical practice, communication, conflicting priorities, record keeping and data management. CDST was considered a useful clinical decision support, with recognised value in promoting clinician

  11. DPSIR Framework - A Decision - Making Tool for Municipalities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majorošová, M.

    2016-12-01

    Many municipalities in Central Europe deal with the problem of invasive species in their natural ecosystems. Invasive vegetation eradicates native species and causes dense stands that damage the natural environment. This work shows how important it is to have an informative tool for municipalities to be successful in their struggles with invasive species. A Driver - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR) framework is a decision - making tool, and this one is particularly applied to the species Fallopia japonica. Fallopia japonica is an extremely invasive and aggressive weed, and it is very often found in riverbank vegetation. This specific framework can be used as a tool for municipal managers to highlight all the problems with Fallopia japonica and define all the responses that should be provided by the municipalities. The work points out the steps that show how important it is to have a strategy or a clear concept of how to begin with such a serious issue as the presence of Fallopia japonica in riverbank vegetation and its eradication. This framework provides simple steps that cannot be excluded when a municipality start actions against Fallopia japonica. All the indicators used in the model are based on the information known about Fallopia japonica that are presented in the literature.

  12. Incorporating INTERACT II Clinical Decision Support Tools into Nursing Home Health Information Technology

    PubMed Central

    Handler, Steven M.; Sharkey, Siobhan S.; Hudak, Sandra; Ouslander, Joseph G.

    2012-01-01

    A substantial reduction in hospitalization rates has been associated with the implementation of the Interventions to Reduce Acute Care Transfers (INTERACT) quality improvement intervention using the accompanying paper-based clinical practice tools (INTERACT II). There is significant potential to further increase the impact of INTERACT by integrating INTERACT II tools into nursing home (NH) health information technology (HIT) via standalone or integrated clinical decision support (CDS) systems. This article highlights the process of translating INTERACT II tools from paper to NH HIT. The authors believe that widespread dissemination and integration of INTERACT II CDS tools into various NH HIT products could lead to sustainable improvement in resident and clinician process and outcome measures, including enhanced interclinician communication and a reduction in potentially avoidable hospitalizations. PMID:22267955

  13. Web-Based Versus Usual Care and Other Formats of Decision Aids to Support Prostate Cancer Screening Decisions: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Baptista, Sofia; Teles Sampaio, Elvira; Heleno, Bruno; Azevedo, Luís Filipe; Martins, Carlos

    2018-06-26

    Prostate cancer is a leading cause of cancer among men. Because screening for prostate cancer is a controversial issue, many experts in the field have defended the use of shared decision making using validated decision aids, which can be presented in different formats (eg, written, multimedia, Web). Recent studies have concluded that decision aids improve knowledge and reduce decisional conflict. This meta-analysis aimed to investigate the impact of using Web-based decision aids to support men's prostate cancer screening decisions in comparison with usual care and other formats of decision aids. We searched PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases up to November 2016. This search identified randomized controlled trials, which assessed Web-based decision aids for men making a prostate cancer screening decision and reported quality of decision-making outcomes. Two reviewers independently screened citations for inclusion criteria, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. Using a random-effects model, meta-analyses were conducted pooling results using mean differences (MD), standardized mean differences (SMD), and relative risks (RR). Of 2406 unique citations, 7 randomized controlled trials met the inclusion criteria. For risk of bias, selective outcome reporting and participant/personnel blinding were mostly rated as unclear due to inadequate reporting. Based on seven items, two studies had high risk of bias for one item. Compared to usual care, Web-based decision aids increased knowledge (SMD 0.46; 95% CI 0.18-0.75), reduced decisional conflict (MD -7.07%; 95% CI -9.44 to -4.71), and reduced the practitioner control role in the decision-making process (RR 0.50; 95% CI 0.31-0.81). Web-based decision aids compared to printed decision aids yielded no differences in knowledge, decisional conflict, and participation in decision or screening behaviors. Compared to video decision aids, Web-based decision aids showed lower average knowledge scores (SMD -0

  14. Discrepancies between multicriteria decision analysis-based ranking and intuitive ranking for pharmaceutical benefit-risk profiles in a hypothetical setting.

    PubMed

    Hoshikawa, K; Ono, S

    2017-02-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been generally considered a promising decision-making methodology for the assessment of drug benefit-risk profiles. There have been many discussions in both public and private sectors on its feasibility and applicability, but it has not been employed in official decision-makings. For the purpose of examining to what extent MCDA would reflect the first-hand, intuitive preference of evaluators in practical pharmaceutical assessments, we conducted a questionnaire survey involving the participation of employees of pharmaceutical companies. Showing profiles of the efficacy and safety of four hypothetical drugs, each respondent was asked to rank them following the standard MCDA process and then to rank them intuitively (i.e. without applying any analytical framework). These two approaches resulted in substantially different ranking patterns from the same individuals, and the concordance rate was surprisingly low (17%). Although many respondents intuitively showed a preference for mild, balanced risk-benefit profiles over profiles with a conspicuous advantage in either risk or benefit, the ranking orders based on MCDA scores did not reflect the intuitive preference. Observed discrepancies between the rankings seemed to be primarily attributed to the structural characteristics of MCDA, which assumes that evaluation on each benefit and risk component should have monotonic impact on final scores. It would be difficult for MCDA to reflect commonly observed non-monotonic preferences for risk and benefit profiles. Possible drawbacks of MCDA should be further investigated prior to the real-world application of its benefit-risk assessment. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Review of electronic decision-support tools for diabetes care: a viable option for low- and middle-income countries?

    PubMed

    Ali, Mohammed K; Shah, Seema; Tandon, Nikhil

    2011-05-01

    Diabetes care is complex, requiring motivated patients, providers, and systems that enable guideline-based preventative care processes, intensive risk-factor control, and positive lifestyle choices. However, care delivery in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) is hindered by a compendium of systemic and personal factors. While electronic medical records (EMR) and computerized clinical decision-support systems (CDSS) have held great promise as interventions that will overcome system-level challenges to improving evidence-based health care delivery, evaluation of these quality improvement interventions for diabetes care in LMICs is lacking. OBJECTIVE AND DATA SOURCES: We reviewed the published medical literature (systematic search of MEDLINE database supplemented by manual searches) to assess the quantifiable and qualitative impacts of combined EMR-CDSS tools on physician performance and patient outcomes and their applicability in LMICs. Inclusion criteria prespecified the population (type 1 or 2 diabetes patients), intervention (clinical EMR-CDSS tools with enhanced functionalities), and outcomes (any process, self-care, or patient-level data) of interest. Case, review, or methods reports and studies focused on nondiabetes, nonclinical, or in-patient uses of EMR-CDSS were excluded. Quantitative and qualitative data were extracted from studies by separate single reviewers, respectively, and relevant data were synthesized. Thirty-three studies met inclusion criteria, originating exclusively from high-income country settings. Among predominantly experimental study designs, process improvements were consistently observed along with small, variable improvements in risk-factor control, compared with baseline and/or control groups (where applicable). Intervention benefits varied by baseline patient characteristics, features of the EMR-CDSS interventions, motivation and access to technology among patients and providers, and whether EMR-CDSS tools were combined with

  16. Big-Data Based Decision-Support Systems to Improve Clinicians' Cognition.

    PubMed

    Roosan, Don; Samore, Matthew; Jones, Makoto; Livnat, Yarden; Clutter, Justin

    2016-01-01

    Complex clinical decision-making could be facilitated by using population health data to inform clinicians. In two previous studies, we interviewed 16 infectious disease experts to understand complex clinical reasoning. For this study, we focused on answers from the experts on how clinical reasoning can be supported by population-based Big-Data. We found cognitive strategies such as trajectory tracking, perspective taking, and metacognition has the potential to improve clinicians' cognition to deal with complex problems. These cognitive strategies could be supported by population health data, and all have important implications for the design of Big-Data based decision-support tools that could be embedded in electronic health records. Our findings provide directions for task allocation and design of decision-support applications for health care industry development of Big data based decision-support systems.

  17. Design and usability of heuristic‐based deliberation tools for women facing amniocentesis

    PubMed Central

    Durand, Marie‐Anne; Wegwarth, Odette; Boivin, Jacky; Elwyn, Glyn

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background  Evidence suggests that in decision contexts characterized by uncertainty and time constraints (e.g. health‐care decisions), fast and frugal decision‐making strategies (heuristics) may perform better than complex rules of reasoning. Objective  To examine whether it is possible to design deliberation components in decision support interventions using simple models (fast and frugal heuristics). Design  The ‘Take The Best’ heuristic (i.e. selection of a ‘most important reason’) and ‘The Tallying’ integration algorithm (i.e. unitary weighing of pros and cons) were used to develop two deliberation components embedded in a Web‐based decision support intervention for women facing amniocentesis testing. Ten researchers (recruited from 15), nine health‐care providers (recruited from 28) and ten pregnant women (recruited from 14) who had recently been offered amniocentesis testing appraised evolving versions of ‘your most important reason’ (Take The Best) and ‘weighing it up’ (Tallying). Results  Most researchers found the tools useful in facilitating decision making although emphasized the need for simple instructions and clear layouts. Health‐care providers however expressed concerns regarding the usability and clarity of the tools. By contrast, 7 out of 10 pregnant women found the tools useful in weighing up the pros and cons of each option, helpful in structuring and clarifying their thoughts and visualizing their decision efforts. Several pregnant women felt that ‘weighing it up’ and ‘your most important reason’ were not appropriate when facing such a difficult and emotional decision. Conclusion  Theoretical approaches based on fast and frugal heuristics can be used to develop deliberation tools that provide helpful support to patients facing real‐world decisions about amniocentesis. PMID:21241434

  18. Communication tools for end-of-life decision-making in the intensive care unit: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Oczkowski, Simon J W; Chung, Han-Oh; Hanvey, Louise; Mbuagbaw, Lawrence; You, John J

    2016-04-09

    For many patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), preferences for end-of-life care are unknown, and clinicians and substitute decision-makers are required to make decisions about the goals of care on their behalf. We conducted a systematic review to determine the effect of structured communication tools for end-of-life decision-making, compared to usual care, upon the number of documented goals of care discussions, documented code status, and decisions to withdraw life-sustaining treatments, in adult patients admitted to the ICU. We searched multiple databases including MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, ERIC, and Cochrane from database inception until July 2014. Two reviewers independently screened articles, assessed eligibility, verified data extraction, and assessed risk of bias using the tool described by the Cochrane Collaboration and the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Pooled estimates of effect (relative risk, standardized mean difference, or mean difference), were calculated where sufficient data existed. GRADE was used to evaluate the overall quality of evidence for each outcome. We screened 5785 abstracts and reviewed the full text of 424 articles, finding 168 eligible articles, including 19 studies in the ICU setting. The use of communication tools increased documentation of goals-of-care discussions (RR 3.47, 95% CI 1.55, 7.75, p = 0.020, very low-quality evidence), but did not have an effect on code status documentation (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.96, 1.10, p = 0.540, low-quality evidence) or decisions to withdraw or withhold life-sustaining treatments (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.89, 1.08, p = 0.70, low-quality evidence). The use of such tools was associated with a decrease in multiple measures of health care resource utilization, including duration of mechanical ventilation (MD -1.9 days, 95% CI -3.26, -0.54, p = 0.006, very low-quality evidence), length of ICU stay (MD -1.11 days, 95% CI -2.18, -0.03, p = 0.04, very low-quality evidence), and health care costs (SMD -0.32, 95

  19. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age – A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions

    PubMed Central

    Liebherr, Magnus; Schiebener, Johannes; Averbeck, Heike; Brand, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors – responsible for age-related differences in decision making – are additionally pointed out. PMID:29270145

  20. How well does the Post-fire Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) really work?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William; Lewis, Sarah; Miller, Mary Ellen

    2016-04-01

    The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective postfire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed to assist post fire assessment teams identify high erosion risk areas and effectiveness of various mitigation treatments to reduce that risk. ERMiT is a web-based application that uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) technology to estimate erosion, in probabilistic terms, on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands with and without the application of mitigation treatments. User inputs are processed by ERMiT to combine rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity and soil properties which are then used as WEPP inputs. Since 2007, the model has been used in making hundreds of land management decisions in the US and elsewhere. We use eight published field study sites in the Western US to compare ERMiT predictions to observed hillslope erosion rates. Most sites experience only a few rainfall events that produced runoff and sediment except for a California site with a Mediterranean climate. When hillslope erosion occurred, significant correlations occurred between the observed hillslope erosion and those predicted by ERMiT. Significant correlation occurred for most mitigation treatments as well as the five recovery years. These model validation results suggest reasonable estimates of probabilistic post-fire hillslope sediment delivery when compared to observation.

  1. Decision-making tool for applying adaptive traffic control systems : final report.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-03-01

    Adaptive traffic signal control technologies have been increasingly deployed in real world situations. The objective of this project was to develop a decision-making tool to guide traffic engineers and decision-makers who must decide whether or not a...

  2. Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Massie, Michael J.; Morris, A. Terry

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions.

  3. A GIS-based tool for an integrated assessment of spatial planning trade-offs with aquaculture.

    PubMed

    Gimpel, Antje; Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Töpsch, Sandra; Galparsoro, Ibon; Gubbins, Matthew; Miller, David; Murillas, Arantza; Murray, Alexander G; Pınarbaşı, Kemal; Roca, Guillem; Watret, Robert

    2018-06-15

    The increasing demand for protein from aquaculture will trigger a global expansion of the sector in coastal and offshore waters. While contributing to food security, potential conflicts with other traditional activities such as fisheries or tourism are inevitable, thus calling for decision-support tools to assess aquaculture planning scenarios in a multi-use context. Here we introduce the AquaSpace tool, one of the first Geographic Information System (GIS)-based planning tools empowering an integrated assessment and mapping of 30 indicators reflecting economic, environmental, inter-sectorial and socio-cultural risks and opportunities for proposed aquaculture systems in a marine environment. A bottom-up process consulting more than 350 stakeholders from 10 countries across southern and northern Europe enabled the direct consideration of stakeholder needs when developing the GIS AddIn. The AquaSpace tool is an open source product and builds in the prospective use of open source datasets at a European scale, hence aiming to improve reproducibility and collaboration in aquaculture science and research. Tool outputs comprise detailed reports and graphics allowing key stakeholders such as planners or licensing authorities to evaluate and communicate alternative planning scenarios and to take more informed decisions. With the help of the German North Sea case study we demonstrate here the tool application at multiple spatial scales with different aquaculture systems and under a range of space-related development constraints. The computation of these aquaculture planning scenarios and the assessment of their trade-offs showed that it is entirely possible to identify aquaculture sites, that correspondent to multifarious potential challenges, for instance by a low conflict potential, a low risk of disease spread, a comparable high economic profit and a low impact on touristic attractions. We believe that a transparent visualisation of risks and opportunities of aquaculture

  4. Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk.

    PubMed

    Ricci, Paolo F; Cox, Louis A; MacDonald, Thomas R

    2004-12-01

    relevance of new information, relative to the initial (and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

  5. In search of tools to aid logical thinking and communicating about medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Hunink, M G

    2001-01-01

    To have real-time impact on medical decision making, decision analysts need a wide variety of tools to aid logical thinking and communication. Decision models provide a formal framework to integrate evidence and values, but they are commonly perceived as complex and difficult to understand by those unfamiliar with the methods, especially in the context of clinical decision making. The theory of constraints, introduced by Eliyahu Goldratt in the business world, provides a set of tools for logical thinking and communication that could potentially be useful in medical decision making. The author used the concept of a conflict resolution diagram to analyze the decision to perform carotid endarterectomy prior to coronary artery bypass grafting in a patient with both symptomatic coronary and asymptomatic carotid artery disease. The method enabled clinicians to visualize and analyze the issues, identify and discuss the underlying assumptions, search for the best available evidence, and use the evidence to make a well-founded decision. The method also facilitated communication among those involved in the care of the patient. Techniques from fields other than decision analysis can potentially expand the repertoire of tools available to support medical decision making and to facilitate communication in decision consults.

  6. A method to assess how interactive water simulation tools influence transdisciplinary decision-making processes in water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leskens, Johannes

    2015-04-01

    In modern water management, often transdisciplinary work sessions are organized in which various stakeholders participate to jointly define problems, choose measures and divide responsibilities to take actions. Involved stakeholders are for example policy analysts or decision-makers from municipalities, water boards or provinces, representatives of pressure groups and researchers from knowledge institutes. Parallel to this increasing attention for transdisciplinary work sessions, we see a growing availability of interactive IT-tools that can be applied during these sessions. For example, dynamic flood risk maps have become recently available that allow users during a work sessions to instantaneously assess the impact of storm surges or dam breaches, displayed on digital maps. Other examples are serious games, realistic visualizations and participatory simulations. However, the question is if and how these interactive IT-tools contribute to better decision-making. To assess this, we take the process of knowledge construction during a work session as a measure for the quality of decision-making. Knowledge construction can be defined as the process in which ideas, perspectives and opinions of different stakeholders, all having their own expertise and experience, are confronted with each other and new shared meanings towards water management issues are created. We present an assessment method to monitor the process of knowledge construction during work sessions in water management in which interactive IT tools are being used. The assessment method is based on a literature review, focusing on studies in which knowledge construction was monitored in other contexts that water management. To test the applicability of the assessment method, we applied it during a multi-stakeholder work session in Westland, located in the southwest of the Netherlands. The discussions during the work session were observed by camera. All statements, expressed by the various members of a

  7. Cultural competency of a mobile, customized patient education tool for improving potential kidney transplant recipients' knowledge and decision-making.

    PubMed

    Axelrod, David A; Kynard-Amerson, Crystal S; Wojciechowski, David; Jacobs, Marie; Lentine, Krista L; Schnitzler, Mark; Peipert, John D; Waterman, Amy D

    2017-05-01

    Patients considering renal transplantation face an increasingly complex array of choices as a result of the revised kidney transplant allocation system. Decision aids have been shown to improve patient decision-making through the provision of detailed, relevant, individualized clinical data. A mobile iOS-based application (app) including animated patient education and individualized risk-adjusted outcomes following kidney transplants with varying donor characteristics and DSA waiting times was piloted in two large US transplant programs with a diverse group of renal transplant candidates (N = 81). The majority (86%) of patients felt that the app improved their knowledge and was culturally appropriate for their race/ethnicity (67%-85%). Patients scored significantly higher on transplant knowledge testing (9.1/20 to 13.8/20, P < .001) after viewing the app, including patients with low health literacy (8.0 to 13.0, P < .001). Overall knowledge of and interest in living and deceased donor kidney transplantation increased. This pilot project confirmed the benefit and cultural acceptability of this educational tool, and further refinement will explore how to better communicate the risks and benefits of nonstandard donors. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. A decision support tool for adaptive management of native prairie ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunt, Victoria M.; Jacobi, Sarah; Gannon, Jill J.; Zorn, Jennifer E.; Moore, Clinton; Lonsdorf, Eric V.

    2016-01-01

    The Native Prairie Adaptive Management initiative is a decision support framework that provides cooperators with management-action recommendations to help them conserve native species and suppress invasive species on prairie lands. We developed a Web-based decision support tool (DST) for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey initiative. The DST facilitates cross-organizational data sharing, performs analyses to improve conservation delivery, and requires no technical expertise to operate. Each year since 2012, the DST has used monitoring data to update ecological knowledge that it translates into situation-specific management-action recommendations (e.g., controlled burn or prescribed graze). The DST provides annual recommendations for more than 10,000 acres on 20 refuge complexes in four U.S. states. We describe how the DST promotes the long-term implementation of the program for which it was designed and may facilitate decision support and improve ecological outcomes of other conservation efforts.

  9. Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

    PubMed Central

    Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

    2012-01-01

    Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

  10. A literature review of the cardiovascular risk-assessment tools: applicability among Asian population.

    PubMed

    Liau, Siow Yen; Mohamed Izham, M I; Hassali, M A; Shafie, A A

    2010-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases, the main causes of hospitalisations and death globally, have put an enormous economic burden on the healthcare system. Several risk factors are associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular events. At the heart of efficient prevention of cardiovascular disease is the concept of risk assessment. This paper aims to review the available cardiovascular risk-assessment tools and its applicability in predicting cardiovascular risk among Asian populations. A systematic search was performed using keywords as MeSH and Boolean terms. A total of 25 risk-assessment tools were identified. Of these, only two risk-assessment tools (8%) were derived from an Asian population. These risk-assessment tools differ in various ways, including characteristics of the derivation sample, type of study, time frame of follow-up, end points, statistical analysis and risk factors included. Very few cardiovascular risk-assessment tools were developed in Asian populations. In order to accurately predict the cardiovascular risk of our population, there is a need to develop a risk-assessment tool based on local epidemiological data.

  11. Evaluating the content and development of decision aid tools for the management of menopause: A scoping review.

    PubMed

    Siyam, Tasneem; Sultani, Humirah; Ross, Sue; Chatterley, Trish; Yuksel, Nese

    2017-12-01

    Decision-making during menopause (especially surgical menopause) can be complex given the variability in risk-benefit perceptions of menopausal treatments. Decision aid tools (DATs) help women participate in decision-making about options. Our objective is to identify and evaluate the content and development of DATs for managing menopause, with a special focus on surgical menopause. We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, from inception to March 2017 for relevant records. The principal inclusion criterion was that papers reported studies on DATs for managing menopause. Search terms were derived from two concepts: menopause and DATs. Data extracted were presented in written evidence tables and narrative summaries. Our search yielded 18,801 records. Of these, 26 records met our inclusion criteria, which gave rise to 12 DATs from peer-reviewed literature and 6 from grey literature. Seventeen DATs were focused on natural menopause and two targeted surgical menopause, both identified from grey literature. More than half were published before the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) publication and 70% before the release of the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS). Very few studies reported the full development of the DAT involved, and less than half of DATs were informed by a needs assessment to identify the decisional needs of their target population. Most DATs focused on hormone therapy as a treatment option and did not provide a comprehensive overview of other options. None of the DATs reported the steps involved in finding, appraising and summarizing scientific content of the tool. This review highlights several limitations in the content and development of DATs for managing menopause. No peer-reviewed DATs were identified for surgical menopause. A need for a complete, evidence-based DAT in the context of surgical menopause is identified. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. 2D Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling Tool for River Restoration Decision Analysis: A Quantitative Approach to Project Prioritization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandrowski, D.; Lai, Y.; Bradley, N.; Gaeuman, D. A.; Murauskas, J.; Som, N. A.; Martin, A.; Goodman, D.; Alvarez, J.

    2014-12-01

    In the field of river restoration sciences there is a growing need for analytical modeling tools and quantitative processes to help identify and prioritize project sites. 2D hydraulic models have become more common in recent years and with the availability of robust data sets and computing technology, it is now possible to evaluate large river systems at the reach scale. The Trinity River Restoration Program is now analyzing a 40 mile segment of the Trinity River to determine priority and implementation sequencing for its Phase II rehabilitation projects. A comprehensive approach and quantitative tool has recently been developed to analyze this complex river system referred to as: 2D-Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling (2D-HBLM). This tool utilizes various hydraulic output parameters combined with biological, ecological, and physical metrics at user-defined spatial scales. These metrics and their associated algorithms are the underpinnings of the 2D-HBLM habitat module used to evaluate geomorphic characteristics, riverine processes, and habitat complexity. The habitat metrics are further integrated into a comprehensive Logic Model framework to perform statistical analyses to assess project prioritization. The Logic Model will analyze various potential project sites by evaluating connectivity using principal component methods. The 2D-HBLM tool will help inform management and decision makers by using a quantitative process to optimize desired response variables with balancing important limiting factors in determining the highest priority locations within the river corridor to implement restoration projects. Effective river restoration prioritization starts with well-crafted goals that identify the biological objectives, address underlying causes of habitat change, and recognizes that social, economic, and land use limiting factors may constrain restoration options (Bechie et. al. 2008). Applying natural resources management actions, like restoration prioritization, is

  13. Developing a Framework to Link Catchment Modelling tools to Decision Support Systems for Catchment Management and Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, Russell; Owen, Gareth

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few years a series of catchment monitoring studies in the UK have developed a wide range of tools to enable managers and planners to make informed decisions to target several key outcomes. These outcomes include the mitigation of diffuse pollution and the reduction of flood risk. Good progress has been but additional steps are still required to link together more detailed models that represent catchment processes with the decision support systems (often termed matrices; i.e. DSMs) which form the basis of these planning and management tools. Examples include: (i) the FARM tools developed by the PROACTIVE team at Newcastle University to assess different catchment management options for mitigating against flooding events, (ii) TOPMANAGE, a suite of algorithms that link with high resolution DEMs to enable surface flow pathways, having the potential to be mitigated by Natural Flood Management (NFM) features (in order to target diffuse pollution due to nutrients and sediments) to be identified. To date, these DSMs have not been underpinned by models that can be run in real-time to quantify the benefits in terms of measurable reductions in flood or nutrient pollution risks. Their use has therefore been mostly as qualitative assessment tools. This study aims to adapt an existing spreadsheet-based model, the CRAFT, in order for it to become fully coupled to a DSM approach. Previous catchment scale applications of the CRAFT have focussed on meso-scale studies where any management interventions at a local scale are unlikely to be detectable at the monitoring point (the catchment outlet). The model has however been reasonably successful in identifying potential flow and transport pathways that link the headwater subcatchments to the outlet. Furthermore, recent enhancements to the model enable features such as sedimentation ponds and lagoons that can trap and remove nutrients and sediments to be added, once data become available from different types of NFM

  14. Tools for Implementing an Evidence-Based Approach in Public Health Practice

    PubMed Central

    Jacobs, Julie A.; Jones, Ellen; Gabella, Barbara A.; Spring, Bonnie

    2012-01-01

    Increasing disease rates, limited funding, and the ever-growing scientific basis for intervention demand the use of proven strategies to improve population health. Public health practitioners must be ready to implement an evidence-based approach in their work to meet health goals and sustain necessary resources. We researched easily accessible and time-efficient tools for implementing an evidence-based public health (EBPH) approach to improve population health. Several tools have been developed to meet EBPH needs, including free online resources in the following topic areas: training and planning tools, US health surveillance, policy tracking and surveillance, systematic reviews and evidence-based guidelines, economic evaluation, and gray literature. Key elements of EBPH are engaging the community in assessment and decision making; using data and information systems systematically; making decisions on the basis of the best available peer-reviewed evidence (both quantitative and qualitative); applying program-planning frameworks (often based in health-behavior theory); conducting sound evaluation; and disseminating what is learned. PMID:22721501

  15. Accessibility, usability, and usefulness of a Web-based clinical decision support tool to enhance provider-patient communication around Self-management TO Prevent (STOP) Stroke.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Jane A; Godwin, Kyler M; Saleem, Jason J; Russell, Scott; Robinson, Joshua J; Kimmel, Barbara

    2014-12-01

    This article reports redesign strategies identified to create a Web-based user-interface for the Self-management TO Prevent (STOP) Stroke Tool. Members of a Stroke Quality Improvement Network (N = 12) viewed a visualization video of a proposed prototype and provided feedback on implementation barriers/facilitators. Stroke-care providers (N = 10) tested the Web-based prototype in think-aloud sessions of simulated clinic visits. Participants' dialogues were coded into themes. Access to comprehensive information and the automated features/systematized processes were the primary accessibility and usability facilitator themes. The need for training, time to complete the tool, and computer-centric care were identified as possible usability barriers. Patient accountability, reminders for best practice, goal-focused care, and communication/counseling themes indicate that the STOP Stroke Tool supports the paradigm of patient-centered care. The STOP Stroke Tool was found to prompt clinicians on secondary stroke-prevention clinical-practice guidelines, facilitate comprehensive documentation of evidence-based care, and support clinicians in providing patient-centered care through the shared decision-making process that occurred while using the action-planning/goal-setting feature of the tool. © The Author(s) 2013.

  16. Developing Hydrogeological Site Characterization Strategies based on Human Health Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to provide better sustainable groundwater quality management and minimize the impact of contamination in humans, improved understanding and quantification of the interaction between hydrogeological models, geological site information and human health are needed. Considering the joint influence of these components in the overall human health risk assessment and the corresponding sources of uncertainty aid decision makers to better allocate resources in data acquisition campaigns. This is important to (1) achieve remediation goals in a cost-effective manner, (2) protect human health and (3) keep water supplies clean in order to keep with quality standards. Such task is challenging since a full characterization of the subsurface is unfeasible due to financial and technological constraints. In addition, human exposure and physiological response to contamination are subject to uncertainty and variability. Normally, sampling strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on the overall system uncertainty. Therefore, quantifying the impact from each of these components (hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological) in final human health risk prediction can provide guidance for decision makers to best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. In this presentation, a multi-component human health risk-based framework is presented which allows decision makers to set priorities through an information entropy-based visualization tool. Results highlight the role of characteristic length-scales characterizing flow and transport in determining data needs within an integrated hydrogeological-health framework. Conditions where uncertainty reduction in human health risk predictions may benefit from better understanding of the health component, as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization, are also discussed. Finally, results illustrate how different dose

  17. Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

    PubMed Central

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2015-01-01

    Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

  18. The use of predictive models to optimize risk of decisions.

    PubMed

    Baranyi, József; Buss da Silva, Nathália

    2017-01-02

    The purpose of this paper is to set up a mathematical framework that risk assessors and regulators could use to quantify the "riskiness" of a particular recommendation (choice/decision). The mathematical theory introduced here can be used for decision support systems. We point out that efficient use of predictive models in decision making for food microbiology needs to consider three major points: (1) the uncertainty and variability of the used information based on which the decision is to be made; (2) the validity of the predictive models aiding the assessor; and (3) the cost generated by the difference between the a-priory choice and the a-posteriori outcome. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. RISK COMMUNICATION AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL: A RISK COMMUNICATION WORKBOOK

    EPA Science Inventory

    Communicating information about environmental risk to the people most affected by it is one of the major challenges faced by risk managers and community decision makers. Changing human behavior is a far more complex task than designing water retention systems or managing storm wa...

  20. Decision Support Tool for Early Differential Diagnosis of Acute Lung Injury and Cardiogenic Pulmonary Edema in Medical Critically Ill Patients

    PubMed Central

    Shahjehan, Khurram; Li, Guangxi; Dhokarh, Rajanigandha; Kashyap, Rahul; Janish, Christopher; Alsara, Anas; Jaffe, Allan S.; Hubmayr, Rolf D.; Gajic, Ognjen

    2012-01-01

    Background: At the onset of acute hypoxic respiratory failure, critically ill patients with acute lung injury (ALI) may be difficult to distinguish from those with cardiogenic pulmonary edema (CPE). No single clinical parameter provides satisfying prediction. We hypothesized that a combination of those will facilitate early differential diagnosis. Methods: In a population-based retrospective development cohort, validated electronic surveillance identified critically ill adult patients with acute pulmonary edema. Recursive partitioning and logistic regression were used to develop a decision support tool based on routine clinical information to differentiate ALI from CPE. Performance of the score was validated in an independent cohort of referral patients. Blinded post hoc expert review served as gold standard. Results: Of 332 patients in a development cohort, expert reviewers (κ, 0.86) classified 156 as having ALI and 176 as having CPE. The validation cohort had 161 patients (ALI = 113, CPE = 48). The score was based on risk factors for ALI and CPE, age, alcohol abuse, chemotherapy, and peripheral oxygen saturation/Fio2 ratio. It demonstrated good discrimination (area under curve [AUC] = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.77-0.86) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow [HL] P = .16). Similar performance was obtained in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.80; 95% CI, 0.72-0.88; HL P = .13). Conclusions: A simple decision support tool accurately classifies acute pulmonary edema, reserving advanced testing for a subset of patients in whom satisfying prediction cannot be made. This novel tool may facilitate early inclusion of patients with ALI and CPE into research studies as well as improve and rationalize clinical management and resource use. PMID:22030803

  1. AdViSHE: A Validation-Assessment Tool of Health-Economic Models for Decision Makers and Model Users.

    PubMed

    Vemer, P; Corro Ramos, I; van Voorn, G A K; Al, M J; Feenstra, T L

    2016-04-01

    A trade-off exists between building confidence in health-economic (HE) decision models and the use of scarce resources. We aimed to create a practical tool providing model users with a structured view into the validation status of HE decision models, to address this trade-off. A Delphi panel was organized, and was completed by a workshop during an international conference. The proposed tool was constructed iteratively based on comments from, and the discussion amongst, panellists. During the Delphi process, comments were solicited on the importance and feasibility of possible validation techniques for modellers, their relevance for decision makers, and the overall structure and formulation in the tool. The panel consisted of 47 experts in HE modelling and HE decision making from various professional and international backgrounds. In addition, 50 discussants actively engaged in the discussion at the conference workshop and returned 19 questionnaires with additional comments. The final version consists of 13 items covering all relevant aspects of HE decision models: the conceptual model, the input data, the implemented software program, and the model outcomes. Assessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic decision models (AdViSHE) is a validation-assessment tool in which model developers report in a systematic way both on validation efforts performed and on their outcomes. Subsequently, model users can establish whether confidence in the model is justified or whether additional validation efforts should be undertaken. In this way, AdViSHE enhances transparency of the validation status of HE models and supports efficient model validation.

  2. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    PubMed

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

  3. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    MedlinePlus

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  4. Quantifying Risk of Financial Incapacity and Financial Exploitation in Community-dwelling Older Adults: Utility of a Scoring System for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

    PubMed

    Lichtenberg, Peter A; Gross, Evan; Ficker, Lisa J

    2018-06-08

    This work examines the clinical utility of the scoring system for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS) and its usefulness for decision making capacity and financial exploitation. Objective 1 was to examine the clinical utility of a person centered, empirically supported, financial decision making scale. Objective 2 was to determine whether the risk-scoring system created for this rating scale is sufficiently accurate for the use of cutoff scores in cases of decisional capacity and cases of suspected financial exploitation. Objective 3 was to examine whether cognitive decline and decisional impairment predicted suspected financial exploitation. Two hundred independently living, non-demented community-dwelling older adults comprised the sample. Participants completed the rating scale and other cognitive measures. Receiver operating characteristic curves were in the good to excellent range for decisional capacity scoring, and in the fair to good range for financial exploitation. Analyses supported the conceptual link between decision making deficits and risk for exploitation, and supported the use of the risk-scoring system in a community-based population. This study adds to the empirical evidence supporting the use of the rating scale as a clinical tool assessing risk for financial decisional impairment and/or financial exploitation.

  5. Big-Data Based Decision-Support Systems to Improve Clinicians’ Cognition

    PubMed Central

    Roosan, Don; Samore, Matthew; Jones, Makoto; Livnat, Yarden; Clutter, Justin

    2016-01-01

    Complex clinical decision-making could be facilitated by using population health data to inform clinicians. In two previous studies, we interviewed 16 infectious disease experts to understand complex clinical reasoning. For this study, we focused on answers from the experts on how clinical reasoning can be supported by population-based Big-Data. We found cognitive strategies such as trajectory tracking, perspective taking, and metacognition has the potential to improve clinicians’ cognition to deal with complex problems. These cognitive strategies could be supported by population health data, and all have important implications for the design of Big-Data based decision-support tools that could be embedded in electronic health records. Our findings provide directions for task allocation and design of decision-support applications for health care industry development of Big data based decision-support systems. PMID:27990498

  6. Facilitating knowledge transfer: decision support tools in environment and health.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hai-Ying; Bartonova, Alena; Neofytou, Panagiotis; Yang, Aileen; Kobernus, Michael J; Negrenti, Emanuele; Housiadas, Christos

    2012-06-28

    The HENVINET Health and Environment Network aimed to enhance the use of scientific knowledge in environmental health for policy making. One of the goals was to identify and evaluate Decision Support Tools (DST) in current use. Special attention was paid to four "priority" health issues: asthma and allergies, cancer, neurodevelopment disorders, and endocrine disruptors.We identified a variety of tools that are used for decision making at various levels and by various stakeholders. We developed a common framework for information acquisition about DSTs, translated this to a database structure and collected the information in an online Metadata Base (MDB).The primary product is an open access web-based MDB currently filled with 67 DSTs, accessible through the HENVINET networking portal http://www.henvinet.eu and http://henvinet.nilu.no. Quality assurance and control of the entries and evaluation of requirements to use the DSTs were also a focus of the work. The HENVINET DST MDB is an open product that enables the public to get basic information about the DSTs, and to search the DSTs using pre-designed attributes or free text. Registered users are able to 1) review and comment on existing DSTs; 2) evaluate each DST's functionalities, and 3) add new DSTs, or change the entry for their own DSTs. Assessment of the available 67 DSTs showed: 1) more than 25% of the DSTs address only one pollution source; 2) 25% of the DSTs address only one environmental stressor; 3) almost 50% of the DSTs are only applied to one disease; 4) 41% of the DSTs can only be applied to one decision making area; 5) 60% of the DSTs' results are used only by national authority and/or municipality/urban level administration; 6) almost half of the DSTs are used only by environmental professionals and researchers. This indicates that there is a need to develop DSTs covering an increasing number of pollution sources, environmental stressors and health end points, and considering links to other 'Driving

  7. Analytic and rule-based decision support tool for VDT workstation adjustment and computer accessories arrangement.

    PubMed

    Rurkhamet, Busagarin; Nanthavanij, Suebsak

    2004-12-01

    One important factor that leads to the development of musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) and cumulative trauma disorders (CTD) among visual display terminal (VDT) users is their work posture. While operating a VDT, a user's body posture is strongly influenced by the task, VDT workstation settings, and layout of computer accessories. This paper presents an analytic and rule-based decision support tool called EQ-DeX (an ergonomics and quantitative design expert system) that is developed to provide valid and practical recommendations regarding the adjustment of a VDT workstation and the arrangement of computer accessories. The paper explains the structure and components of EQ-DeX, input data, rules, and adjustment and arrangement algorithms. From input information such as gender, age, body height, task, etc., EQ-DeX uses analytic and rule-based algorithms to estimate quantitative settings of a computer table and a chair, as well as locations of computer accessories such as monitor, document holder, keyboard, and mouse. With the input and output screens that are designed using the concept of usability, the interactions between the user and EQ-DeX are convenient. Examples are also presented to demonstrate the recommendations generated by EQ-DeX.

  8. Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal

    2014-06-01

    Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, risk–based technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by anmore » integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.« less

  9. Incorporating patient-preference evidence into regulatory decision making.

    PubMed

    Ho, Martin P; Gonzalez, Juan Marcos; Lerner, Herbert P; Neuland, Carolyn Y; Whang, Joyce M; McMurry-Heath, Michelle; Hauber, A Brett; Irony, Telba

    2015-10-01

    Patients have a unique role in deciding what treatments should be available for them and regulatory agencies should take their preferences into account when making treatment approval decisions. This is the first study designed to obtain quantitative patient-preference evidence to inform regulatory approval decisions by the Food and Drug Administration Center for Devices and Radiological Health. Five-hundred and forty United States adults with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m(2) evaluated tradeoffs among effectiveness, safety, and other attributes of weight-loss devices in a scientific survey. Discrete-choice experiments were used to quantify the importance of safety, effectiveness, and other attributes of weight-loss devices to obese respondents. A tool based on these measures is being used to inform benefit-risk assessments for premarket approval of medical devices. Respondent choices yielded preference scores indicating their relative value for attributes of weight-loss devices in this study. We developed a tool to estimate the minimum weight loss acceptable by a patient to receive a device with a given risk profile and the maximum mortality risk tolerable in exchange for a given weight loss. For example, to accept a device with 0.01 % mortality risk, a risk tolerant patient will require about 10 % total body weight loss lasting 5 years. Patient preference evidence was used make regulatory decision making more patient-centered. In addition, we captured the heterogeneity of patient preferences allowing market approval of effective devices for risk tolerant patients. CDRH is using the study tool to define minimum clinical effectiveness to evaluate new weight-loss devices. The methods presented can be applied to a wide variety of medical products. This study supports the ongoing development of a guidance document on incorporating patient preferences into medical-device premarket approval decisions.

  10. A Web-based graphical user interface for evidence-based decision making for health care allocations in rural areas

    PubMed Central

    Schuurman, Nadine; Leight, Margo; Berube, Myriam

    2008-01-01

    Background The creation of successful health policy and location of resources increasingly relies on evidence-based decision-making. The development of intuitive, accessible tools to analyse, display and disseminate spatial data potentially provides the basis for sound policy and resource allocation decisions. As health services are rationalized, the development of tools such graphical user interfaces (GUIs) is especially valuable at they assist decision makers in allocating resources such that the maximum number of people are served. GIS can used to develop GUIs that enable spatial decision making. Results We have created a Web-based GUI (wGUI) to assist health policy makers and administrators in the Canadian province of British Columbia make well-informed decisions about the location and allocation of time-sensitive service capacities in rural regions of the province. This tool integrates datasets for existing hospitals and services, regional populations and road networks to allow users to ascertain the percentage of population in any given service catchment who are served by a specific health service, or baskets of linked services. The wGUI allows policy makers to map trauma and obstetric services against rural populations within pre-specified travel distances, illustrating service capacity by region. Conclusion The wGUI can be used by health policy makers and administrators with little or no formal GIS training to visualize multiple health resource allocation scenarios. The GUI is poised to become a critical decision-making tool especially as evidence is increasingly required for distribution of health services. PMID:18793428

  11. Emotional engagement with participatory simulations as a tool for learning and decision-support for coupled human-natural systems: Flood hazards and urban development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, J. M.; Corey, B.; Camp, J. V.; John, N. J.; Sengupta, P.

    2015-12-01

    The complex interactions between land use and natural hazards pose serious challenges in education, research, and public policy. Where complex nonlinear interactions produce unintuitive results, interactive computer simulations can be useful tools for education and decision support. Emotions play important roles in cognition and learning, especially where risks are concerned. Interactive simulations have the potential to harness emotional engagement to enhance learning and understanding of risks in coupled human-natural systems. We developed a participatory agent-based simulation of cities at risk of river flooding. Participants play the role of managers of neighboring cities along a flood-prone river and make choices about building flood walls to protect their inhabitants. Simulated agents participate in dynamic real estate markets in which demand for property, and thus values and decisions to build, respond to experience with flooding over time. By reducing high-frequency low-magnitude flooding, flood walls may stimulate development, thus increasing tax revenues but also increasing vulnerability to uncommon floods that overtop the walls. Flood waves are launched stochastically and propagate downstream. Flood walls that restrict overbank flow at one city can increase the amplitude of a flood wave at neighboring cities, both up and downstream. We conducted a pilot experiment with a group of three pre-service teachers. The subjects successfully learned key concepts of risk tradeoffs and unintended consequences that can accompany flood-control measures. We also observed strong emotional responses, including hope, fear, and sense of loss. This emotional engagement with a model of coupled human-natural systems was very different from previous experiments on participatory simulations of purely natural systems for physics pedagogy. We conducted a second session in which the participants were expert engineers. We will present the results of these experiments and the

  12. Human Decision Processes: Implications for SSA Support Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picciano, P.

    2013-09-01

    Despite significant advances in computing power and artificial intelligence (AI), few critical decisions are made without a human decision maker in the loop. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) missions are both critical and complex, typically adhering to the human-in-the-loop (HITL) model. The collection of human operators injects a needed diversity of expert knowledge, experience, and authority required to successfully fulfill SSA tasking. A wealth of literature on human decision making exists citing myriad empirical studies and offering a varied set of prescriptive and descriptive models of judgment and decision making (Hastie & Dawes, 2001; Baron, 2000). Many findings have been proven sufficiently robust to allow information architects or system/interface designers to take action to improve decision processes. For the purpose of discussion, these concepts are bifurcated in two groups: 1) vulnerabilities to mitigate, and 2) capabilities to augment. These vulnerabilities and capabilities refer specifically to the decision process and should not be confused with a shortcoming or skill of a specific human operator. Thus the framing of questions and orders, the automated tools with which to collaborate, priming and contextual data, and the delivery of information all play a critical role in human judgment and choice. Evaluating the merits of any decision can be elusive; in order to constrain this discussion, ‘rational choice' will tend toward the economic model characteristics such as maximizing utility and selection consistency (e.g., if A preferred to B, and B preferred to C, than A should be preferred to C). Simple decision models often encourage one to list the pros and cons of a decision, perhaps use a weighting schema, but one way or another weigh the future benefit (or harm) of making a selection. The result (sought by the rationalist models) should drive toward higher utility. Despite notable differences in researchers' theses (to be discussed in the full

  13. School environment assessment tools to address behavioural risk factors of non-communicable diseases: A scoping review.

    PubMed

    Saluja, Kiran; Rawal, Tina; Bassi, Shalini; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep; Singh, Ankur; Park, Min Hae; Kinra, Sanjay; Arora, Monika

    2018-06-01

    We aimed to identify, describe and analyse school environment assessment (SEA) tools that address behavioural risk factors (unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, tobacco and alcohol consumption) for non-communicable diseases (NCD). We searched in MEDLINE and Web of Science, hand-searched reference lists and contacted experts. Basic characteristics, measures assessed and measurement properties (validity, reliability, usability) of identified tools were extracted. We narratively synthesized the data and used content analysis to develop a list of measures used in the SEA tools. Twenty-four SEA tools were identified, mostly from developed countries. Out of these, 15 were questionnaire based, 8 were checklists or observation based tools and one tool used a combined checklist/observation based and telephonic questionnaire approach. Only 1 SEA tool had components related to all the four NCD risk factors, 2 SEA tools has assessed three NCD risk factors (diet/nutrition, physical activity, tobacco), 10 SEA tools has assessed two NCD risk factors (diet/nutrition and physical activity) and 11 SEA tools has assessed only one of the NCD risk factor. Several measures were used in the tools to assess the four NCD risk factors, but tobacco and alcohol was sparingly included. Measurement properties were reported for 14 tools. The review provides a comprehensive list of measures used in SEA tools which could be a valuable resource to guide future development of such tools. A valid and reliable SEA tool which could simultaneously evaluate all NCD risk factors, that has been tested in different settings with varying resource availability is needed.

  14. Enhancement of the EPA Stormwater BMP Decision-Support Tool (SUSTAIN) - slides

    EPA Science Inventory

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been developing and improving a decision-support tool for placement of stormwater best management practices (BMPs) at strategic locations in urban watersheds. The tool is called the System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis...

  15. A Coastal Risk Assessment Framework Tool to Identify Hotspots at the Regional Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Dongeren, A.; Viavattene, C.; Jimenez, J. A.; Ferreira, O.; Bolle, A.; Owen, D.; Priest, S.

    2016-02-01

    Extreme events in combination with an increasing population on the coast, future sea level rise and the deterioration of coastal defences can lead to catastrophic consequences for coastal communities and their activities. The Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolkit (RISC-KIT) FP7 EU project is producing a set of EU-coherent open-source and open-access tools in support of coastal managers and decision-makers. This paper presents one of these tools, the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) which assesses coastal risk at a regional scale to identify potential impact hotspots for more detailed assessment. Applying a suite of complex models at a full and detailed regional scale remains difficult and may not be efficient, therefore a 2-phase approach is adopted. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process based on a coastal-index approach delimiting several hotspots in alongshore length by assessing the potential exposure for every kilometre along the coast. CRAF Phase 2 uses a suite of more complex modelling process (including X-beach 1D, inundation model, impact assessment and Multi-Criteria Analysis approach) to analyse and compare the risks between the aforementioned identified hotspots. Results of its application are compared on 3 European Case Studies, the Flemish highly protected low-lying coastal plain with important urbanization and harbors, a Portuguese coastal lagoon protected by a multi-inlet barrier system, the highly urbanized Catalonian coast with touristic activities at threat. The flexibility of the tool allows tailoring the comparative analysis to these different contexts and to adapt to the quality of resources and data available. Key lessons will be presented.

  16. An ArcGIS decision support tool for artificial reefs site selection (ArcGIS ARSS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stylianou, Stavros; Zodiatis, George

    2017-04-01

    Although the use and benefits of artificial reefs, both socio-economic and environmental, have been recognized with research and national development programmes worldwide their development is rarely subjected to a rigorous site selection process and the majority of the projects use the traditional (non-GIS) approach, based on trial and error mode. Recent studies have shown that the use of Geographic Information Systems, unlike to traditional methods, for the identification of suitable areas for artificial reefs siting seems to offer a number of distinct advantages minimizing possible errors, time and cost. A decision support tool (DSS) has been developed based on the existing knowledge, the multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and the GIS approach used in previous studies in order to help the stakeholders to identify the optimal locations for artificial reefs deployment on the basis of the physical, biological, oceanographic and socio-economic features of the sites. The tool provides to the users the ability to produce a final report with the results and suitability maps. The ArcGIS ARSS support tool runs within the existing ArcMap 10.2.x environment and for the development the VB .NET high level programming language has been used along with ArcObjects 10.2.x. Two local-scale case studies were conducted in order to test the application of the tool focusing on artificial reef siting. The results obtained from the case studies have shown that the tool can be successfully integrated within the site selection process in order to select objectively the optimal site for artificial reefs deployment.

  17. Evaluating the Utility of Web-Based Consumer Support Tools Using Rough Sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maciag, Timothy; Hepting, Daryl H.; Slezak, Dominik; Hilderman, Robert J.

    On the Web, many popular e-commerce sites provide consumers with decision support tools to assist them in their commerce-related decision-making. Many consumers will rank the utility of these tools quite highly. Data obtained from web usage mining analyses, which may provide knowledge about a user's online experiences, could help indicate the utility of these tools. This type of analysis could provide insight into whether provided tools are adequately assisting consumers in conducting their online shopping activities or if new or additional enhancements need consideration. Although some research in this regard has been described in previous literature, there is still much that can be done. The authors of this paper hypothesize that a measurement of consumer decision accuracy, i.e. a measurement preferences, could help indicate the utility of these tools. This paper describes a procedure developed towards this goal using elements of rough set theory. The authors evaluated the procedure using two support tools, one based on a tool developed by the US-EPA and the other developed by one of the authors called cogito. Results from the evaluation did provide interesting insights on the utility of both support tools. Although it was shown that the cogito tool obtained slightly higher decision accuracy, both tools could be improved from additional enhancements. Details of the procedure developed and results obtained from the evaluation will be provided. Opportunities for future work are also discussed.

  18. Impaired decision-making under risk in individuals with alcohol dependence

    PubMed Central

    Brevers, Damien; Bechara, Antoine; Cleeremans, Axel; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Background Alcohol dependence is associated with poor decision-making under ambiguity, that is, when decisions are to be made in the absence of known probabilities of reward and loss. However, little is known regarding decisions made by individuals with alcohol dependence in the context of known probabilities (decision under risk). In this study, we investigated the relative contribution of these distinct aspects of decision making to alcohol dependence. Methods Thirty recently detoxified and sober asymptomatic alcohol-dependent individuals, and thirty healthy control participants were tested for decision-making under ambiguity (using the Iowa Gambling Task), and decision-making under-risk (using the Cups Task and Coin Flipping Task). We also tested their capacities for working memory storage (Digit-span Forward), and dual-tasking (Operation-span Task). Results Compared to healthy control participants, alcohol-dependent individuals made disadvantageous decisions on the Iowa Gambling Task, reflecting poor decisions under ambiguity. They also made more risky choices on the Cups and Coin Flipping Tasks reflecting poor decision-making under risk. In addition, alcohol-dependent participants showed some working memory impairments, as measured by the dual tasking, and the degree of this impairment correlated with high-risk decision-making, thus suggesting a relationship between processes sub-serving working memory and risky decisions. Conclusion These results suggest that alcohol dependent individuals are impaired in their ability to decide optimally in multiple facets of uncertainty (i.e., both risk and ambiguity), and that at least some aspects of these deficits are linked to poor working memory processes. PMID:24948198

  19. A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations.

    PubMed

    Dotson, G Scott; Hudson, Naomi L; Maier, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management.

  20. A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations

    PubMed Central

    Dotson, G. Scott; Hudson, Naomi L.; Maier, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management. PMID:26312660

  1. Risk Communication, Values Clarification, and Vaccination Decisions.

    PubMed

    Witteman, Holly O; Chipenda Dansokho, Selma; Exe, Nicole; Dupuis, Audrey; Provencher, Thierry; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J

    2015-10-01

    Many health-related decisions require choosing between two options, each with risks and benefits. When presented with such tradeoffs, people often make choices that fail to align with scientific evidence or with their own values. This study tested whether risk communication and values clarification methods could help parents and guardians make evidence-based, values-congruent decisions about children's influenza vaccinations. In 2013-2014 we conducted an online 2×2 factorial experiment in which a diverse sample of U.S. parents and guardians (n = 407) were randomly assigned to view either standard information about influenza vaccines or risk communication using absolute and incremental risk formats. Participants were then either presented or not presented with an interactive values clarification interface with constrained sliders and dynamic visual feedback. Participants randomized to the risk communication condition combined with the values clarification interface were more likely to indicate intentions to vaccinate (β = 2.10, t(399) = 2.63, p < 0.01). The effect was particularly notable among participants who had previously demonstrated less interest in having their children vaccinated against influenza (β = -2.14, t(399) = -2.06, p < 0.05). When assessing vaccination status reported by participants who agreed to participate in a follow-up study six months later (n = 116), vaccination intentions significantly predicted vaccination status (OR = 1.66, 95%CI (1.13, 2.44), p < 0.05) and rates of informed choice (OR = 1.51, 95%CI (1.07, 2.13), p < 0.012), although there were no direct effects of experimental factors on vaccination rates. Qualitative analysis suggested that logistical barriers impeded immunization rates. Risk communication and values clarification methods may contribute to increased vaccination intentions, which may, in turn, predict vaccination status if logistical barriers are also addressed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. A survey tool for measuring evidence-based decision making capacity in public health agencies.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Julie A; Clayton, Paula F; Dove, Cassandra; Funchess, Tanya; Jones, Ellen; Perveen, Ghazala; Skidmore, Brandon; Sutton, Victor; Worthington, Sarah; Baker, Elizabeth A; Deshpande, Anjali D; Brownson, Ross C

    2012-03-09

    While increasing attention is placed on using evidence-based decision making (EBDM) to improve public health, there is little research assessing the current EBDM capacity of the public health workforce. Public health agencies serve a wide range of populations with varying levels of resources. Our survey tool allows an individual agency to collect data that reflects its unique workforce. Health department leaders and academic researchers collaboratively developed and conducted cross-sectional surveys in Kansas and Mississippi (USA) to assess EBDM capacity. Surveys were delivered to state- and local-level practitioners and community partners working in chronic disease control and prevention. The core component of the surveys was adopted from a previously tested instrument and measured gaps (importance versus availability) in competencies for EBDM in chronic disease. Other survey questions addressed expectations and incentives for using EBDM, self-efficacy in three EBDM skills, and estimates of EBDM within the agency. In both states, participants identified communication with policymakers, use of economic evaluation, and translation of research to practice as top competency gaps. Self-efficacy in developing evidence-based chronic disease control programs was lower than in finding or using data. Public health practitioners estimated that approximately two-thirds of programs in their agency were evidence-based. Mississippi participants indicated that health department leaders' expectations for the use of EBDM was approximately twice that of co-workers' expectations and that the use of EBDM could be increased with training and leadership prioritization. The assessment of EBDM capacity in Kansas and Mississippi built upon previous nationwide findings to identify top gaps in core competencies for EBDM in chronic disease and to estimate a percentage of programs in U.S. health departments that are evidence-based. The survey can serve as a valuable tool for other health

  3. Association between metabolic syndrome and bone fracture risk: A community-based study using a fracture risk assessment tool.

    PubMed

    Yu, Chia-Ying; Chen, Fang-Ping; Chen, Li-Wei; Kuo, Sheng-Fong; Chien, Rong-Nan

    2017-12-01

    Osteoporosis and metabolic syndrome (MS) share similar risk factors. Previous studies of association between bone marrow density (BMD) and MS are controversial. Moreover, some studies revealed that MS is associated with BMD but not with bone fracture. In clinical practice, patients pay more attention to bone fracture risk than BMD values. Hence, this study aimed to evaluate the association between MS and the 10-year bone fracture risk probability using a fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) from community-based data. From March 2014 to August 2015, 2689 participants (897 men and 1792 women) were enrolled in this study. Inflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha and C-reactive protein, and adipokines were included for analysis.The mean age was 60.2 ± 10.7 years in men and 58.9 ± 9.6 years in women. The percentage of MS was 27.6% in men and 27.9% in women. Participants were divided into 2 groups, those with or without MS. Compared with women without MS, women with MS had a higher rate of fracture risk (22.8% vs 16.3%, P = .001). In contrast, men with MS had a lower rate of fracture risk then men without MS (5.6% vs 12.3%, P = .004). However, MS loss the association with a high bone fracture risk in men based on multivariate logistical regression analysis, after adjusting for confounding factor of body mass index (BMI). Conclusively, the result of regression analysis between MS and the bone fracture risk may be different in men and women, and BMI was an important confounding factor to interfere with the regression analysis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Sodium valproate in pregnancy: what are the risks and should we use a shared decision-making approach?

    PubMed

    Macfarlane, Alastair; Greenhalgh, Trisha

    2018-06-01

    Despite significant teratogenic risks, sodium valproate is still widely prescribed in many countries to women of childbearing age, as a mood stabiliser in bipolar disorder and also in epilepsy. The UK has recently banned valproate use in women who are not in a pregnancy prevention programme. Whilst this ruling reflects prevailing clinical practice, it also highlights an ongoing debate about when (if ever) a woman who is or could become pregnant should be allowed to choose to take valproate. We review the benefits and harms of drugs available for bipolar disorder and epilepsy in women of childbearing age, with a particular focus on teratogenic risk. We speculate on hypothetical rare situations in which potential benefits of valproate may outweigh potential harms in such women. We also review the literature on shared decision-making - on which there is now a NICE guideline and numerous evidence-based decision tools. Drawing on previous work by experts in shared decision-making, we offer a list of 'frequently asked questions' and a matrix of options to support conversations with women about continuing or discontinuing the drug in (or in anticipation of) pregnancy. We also consider whether shared decision-making is an appropriate paradigm when considering whether to continue a teratogenic drug. We conclude that because valproate in pregnancy remains the subject of such debate, there is scope for further research - not only into the relative efficacy and safety of alternatives to it - but also into the dynamics of communication and shared decision-making in this situation.

  5. A Diagnostics Tool to detect ensemble forecast system anomaly and guide operational decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, G. H.; Srivastava, A.; Shrestha, E.; Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Draijer, S.

    2017-12-01

    The hydrologic community is moving toward using ensemble forecasts to take uncertainty into account during the decision-making process. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) implements several types of ensemble forecasts in their decision-making process: ensemble products for a statistical model (Hirsch and enhanced Hirsch); the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) forecasts based on the classical Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique; and the new NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service (HEFS) forecasts. To remove structural error and apply the forecasts to additional forecast points, the DEP post processes both the AHPS and the HEFS forecasts. These ensemble forecasts provide mass quantities of complex data, and drawing conclusions from these forecasts is time-consuming and difficult. The complexity of these forecasts also makes it difficult to identify system failures resulting from poor data, missing forecasts, and server breakdowns. To address these issues, we developed a diagnostic tool that summarizes ensemble forecasts and provides additional information such as historical forecast statistics, forecast skill, and model forcing statistics. This additional information highlights the key information that enables operators to evaluate the forecast in real-time, dynamically interact with the data, and review additional statistics, if needed, to make better decisions. We used Bokeh, a Python interactive visualization library, and a multi-database management system to create this interactive tool. This tool compiles and stores data into HTML pages that allows operators to readily analyze the data with built-in user interaction features. This paper will present a brief description of the ensemble forecasts, forecast verification results, and the intended applications for the diagnostic tool.

  6. Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools).

    PubMed

    Attaway, David F; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Falconer, Allan; Manca, Germana; Waters, Nigel M

    2016-06-01

    Risk maps identifying suitable locations for infection transmission are important for public health planning. Data on dengue infection rates are not readily available in most places where the disease is known to occur. A newly available add-in to Esri's ArcGIS software package, the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Toolset (PA Tools), was used to identify locations within Africa with environmental characteristics likely to be suitable for transmission of dengue virus. A more accurate, robust, and localized (1 km × 1 km) dengue risk map for Africa was created based on bioclimatic layers, elevation data, high-resolution population data, and other environmental factors that a search of the peer-reviewed literature showed to be associated with dengue risk. Variables related to temperature, precipitation, elevation, and population density were identified as good predictors of dengue suitability. Areas of high dengue suitability occur primarily within West Africa and parts of Central Africa and East Africa, but even in these regions the suitability is not homogenous. This risk mapping technique for an infection transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes draws on entomological, epidemiological, and geographic data. The method could be applied to other infectious diseases (such as Zika) in order to provide new insights for public health officials and others making decisions about where to increase disease surveillance activities and implement infection prevention and control efforts. The ability to map threats to human and animal health is important for tracking vectorborne and other emerging infectious diseases and modeling the likely impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Achieving a Risk-Informed Decision-Making Environment at NASA: The Emphasis of NASA's Risk Management Policy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the evolution of risk management (RM) at NASA. The aim of the RM approach at NASA is to promote an approach that is heuristic, proactive, and coherent across all of NASA. Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is a decision making process that uses a diverse set of performance measures along with other considerations within a deliberative process to inform decision making. RIDM is invoked for key decisions such as architecture and design decisions, make-buy decisions, and budget reallocation. The RIDM process and how it relates to the continuous Risk Management (CRM) process is reviewed.

  8. Effectiveness of a Case-Based Computer Program on Students' Ethical Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Park, Eun-Jun; Park, Mihyun

    2015-11-01

    The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of a case-based computer program, using an integrative ethical decision-making model, on the ethical decision-making competency of nursing students in South Korea. This study used a pre- and posttest comparison design. Students in the intervention group used a computer program for case analysis assignments, whereas students in the standard group used a traditional paper assignment for case analysis. The findings showed that using the case-based computer program as a complementary tool for the ethics courses offered at the university enhanced students' ethical preparedness and satisfaction with the course. On the basis of the findings, it is recommended that nurse educators use a case-based computer program as a complementary self-study tool in ethics courses to supplement student learning without an increase in course hours, particularly in terms of analyzing ethics cases with dilemma scenarios and exercising ethical decision making. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

  9. Gila San Francisco Decision Support Tool - 2010

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sun, Amy Cha-Tien; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Klisa, Geoff

    2014-12-01

    The Gila-San Francisco Decision Support Tool analyzes the water demand and supply for the Gila San Francisco region spanning four counties in southwestern New Mexico (Catron, Hidalgo, Luna and Grant). Catalyzed by the 2004 Arizona Water Settlement Act and prompted by a keen awareness for the unique ecology in the region, the model was developed by Sandia with a collaborative modeling team from federal, state, local, and public stakeholders

  10. The role of depression pharmacogenetic decision support tools in shared decision making.

    PubMed

    Arandjelovic, Katarina; Eyre, Harris A; Lenze, Eric; Singh, Ajeet B; Berk, Michael; Bousman, Chad

    2017-10-29

    Patients discontinue antidepressant medications due to lack of knowledge, unrealistic expectations, and/or unacceptable side effects. Shared decision making (SDM) invites patients to play an active role in their treatment and may indirectly improve outcomes through enhanced engagement in care, adherence to treatment, and positive expectancy of medication outcomes. We believe decisional aids, such as pharmacogenetic decision support tools (PDSTs), facilitate SDM in the clinical setting. PDSTs may likewise predict drug tolerance and efficacy, and therefore adherence and effectiveness on an individual-patient level. There are several important ethical considerations to be navigated when integrating PDSTs into clinical practice. The field requires greater empirical research to demonstrate clinical utility, and the mechanisms thereof, as well as exploration of the ethical use of these technologies.

  11. Impact of a Computerized Antithrombotic Risk Assessment Tool on the Prescription of Thromboprophylaxis in Atrial Fibrillation: Hospital Setting.

    PubMed

    Pandya, E; Masood, N; Wang, Y; Krass, I; Bajorek, B

    2018-01-01

    The computerized antithrombotic risk assessment tool (CARAT) is an online decision-support algorithm that facilitates a systematic review of a patient's stroke risk, bleeding risk, and pertinent medication safety considerations, to generate an individualized treatment recommendation. The CARAT was prospectively applied across 2 hospitals in the greater Sydney area. Its impact on antithrombotics utilization for thromboprophylaxis in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation was evaluated. Factors influencing prescribers' treatment selection were identified. The CARAT recommended a change in baseline therapy for 51.8% of patients. Among anticoagulant-eligible patients (ie, where the risk of stroke outweighed the risk of bleeding) using "nil therapy" or antiplatelet therapy at baseline, the CARAT recommended an upgrade to warfarin in 60 (30.8%) patients. For those in whom the bleeding risk outweighed the stroke risk, the CARAT recommended a downgrade from warfarin to safer alternatives (eg, aspirin) in 37 (19%) patients. Among the "most eligible" (ie, high stroke risk, low bleeding risk, no contraindications; n = 75), the CARAT recommended warfarin for all cases. Discharge therapy observed a marginal increase in anticoagulation prescription in eligible patients (n = 116; 57.8% vs 64.7%, P = .35) compared to baseline. Predictors of warfarin use (vs antiplatelets) included congestive cardiac failure, diabetes mellitus, and polypharmacy. The CARAT was able to optimize the selection of therapy, increasing anticoagulant use among eligible patients. With the increasing complexity of decision-making, such tools may be useful adjuncts in therapy selection in atrial fibrillation. Future studies should explore the utility of such tools in selecting therapies from within an expanded treatment armamentarium comprising the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants.

  12. Decision-making under risk in children, adolescents, and young adults.

    PubMed

    Paulsen, David J; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

    2011-01-01

    Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV) in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children's preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

  13. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    PubMed

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  14. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site.

    PubMed

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Bjerg, Poul L

    2010-05-01

    Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Aid decision algorithms to estimate the risk in congenital heart surgery.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Fernández, Daniel; Monsalve Torra, Ana; Soriano-Payá, Antonio; Marín-Alonso, Oscar; Triana Palencia, Eddy

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we have tested the suitability of using different artificial intelligence-based algorithms for decision support when classifying the risk of congenital heart surgery. In this sense, classification of those surgical risks provides enormous benefits as the a priori estimation of surgical outcomes depending on either the type of disease or the type of repair, and other elements that influence the final result. This preventive estimation may help to avoid future complications, or even death. We have evaluated four machine learning algorithms to achieve our objective: multilayer perceptron, self-organizing map, radial basis function networks and decision trees. The architectures implemented have the aim of classifying among three types of surgical risk: low complexity, medium complexity and high complexity. Accuracy outcomes achieved range between 80% and 99%, being the multilayer perceptron method the one that offered a higher hit ratio. According to the results, it is feasible to develop a clinical decision support system using the evaluated algorithms. Such system would help cardiology specialists, paediatricians and surgeons to forecast the level of risk related to a congenital heart disease surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Issacci, F.; Paulos, T.; Jones, S.; Paxton, K.; Paul, M.

    1992-01-01

    Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

  17. ACED IT: A Tool for Improved Ethical and Moral Decision-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kreitler, Crystal Mata; Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Rodarte, Allen M.; Piñón DuMond, Rebecca

    2014-01-01

    Numerous examples of unethical organizational decision-making highlighted in the media have led many to question the general moral perception and ethical judgments of individuals. The present study examined two forms of a straightforward ethical decision-making (EDM) tool (ACED IT cognitive map) that could be a relatively simple instrument for…

  18. Using exposure prediction tools to link exposure and dosimetry for risk-based decisions: A case study with phthalates.

    PubMed

    Moreau, Marjory; Leonard, Jeremy; Phillips, Katherine A; Campbell, Jerry; Pendse, Salil N; Nicolas, Chantel; Phillips, Martin; Yoon, Miyoung; Tan, Yu-Mei; Smith, Sherrie; Pudukodu, Harish; Isaacs, Kristin; Clewell, Harvey

    2017-10-01

    A few different exposure prediction tools were evaluated for use in the new in vitro-based safety assessment paradigm using di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) and dibutyl phthalate (DnBP) as case compounds. Daily intake of each phthalate was estimated using both high-throughput (HT) prediction models such as the HT Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation model (SHEDS-HT) and the ExpoCast heuristic model and non-HT approaches based on chemical specific exposure estimations in the environment in conjunction with human exposure factors. Reverse dosimetry was performed using a published physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for phthalates and their metabolites to provide a comparison point. Daily intakes of DEHP and DnBP were estimated based on the urinary concentrations of their respective monoesters, mono-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (MEHP) and monobutyl phthalate (MnBP), reported in NHANES (2011-2012). The PBPK-reverse dosimetry estimated daily intakes at the 50th and 95th percentiles were 0.68 and 9.58 μg/kg/d and 0.089 and 0.68 μg/kg/d for DEHP and DnBP, respectively. For DEHP, the estimated median from PBPK-reverse dosimetry was about 3.6-fold higher than the ExpoCast estimate (0.68 and 0.18 μg/kg/d, respectively). For DnBP, the estimated median was similar to that predicted by ExpoCast (0.089 and 0.094 μg/kg/d, respectively). The SHEDS-HT prediction of DnBP intake from consumer product pathways alone was higher at 0.67 μg/kg/d. The PBPK-reverse dosimetry-estimated median intake of DEHP and DnBP was comparable to values previously reported for US populations. These comparisons provide insights into establishing criteria for selecting appropriate exposure prediction tools for use in an integrated modeling platform to link exposure to health effects. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk-Sensitive Decision-Making Deficit in Adolescent Suicide Attempters

    PubMed Central

    Ackerman, John P; McBee-Strayer, Sandy M; Mendoza, Kristen; Stevens, Jack; Sheftall, Arielle H; Campo, John V

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective: Suicide among adolescents is a major public health problem. Decision-making deficits may play an important role in vulnerability to suicidal behavior, but few studies have examined decision-making performance in youth at risk for suicide. In this study, we seek to extend recent findings that adolescent suicide attempters process risk evaluations differently than adolescents who have not attempted suicide. Methods: We assessed decision-making in 14 adolescent suicide attempters and 14 non-attempter comparison subjects, ages 15–19, using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT). Each participant was also administered a diagnostic interview (Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview [MINI]), structured suicide severity measures, and a brief intelligence quotient (IQ) measure. Results: After controlling for gender and IQ differences, suicide attempters displayed an elevated risk-taking propensity on the CGT relative to comparison subjects, such that they were more willing to take a large risk with their bank of points, a decision-making style that proves disadvantageous over time. No group differences in the latency or accuracy of decision-making were observed. Conclusions: Adolescents with a history of suicide attempt display increased risk-taking and greater difficulty predicting probable outcomes on the CGT. Such deficits have been associated with dysfunction in the orbitofrontal prefrontal cortex, which supports other studies implicating impaired decision-making among individuals with a history of suicide attempt. PMID:25265242

  20. Decision-Making Under Risk, but Not Under Ambiguity, Predicts Pathological Gambling in Discrete Types of Abstinent Substance Users.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Michael J; Vassileva, Jasmin

    2018-01-01

    This study explored how different forms of reward-based decision-making are associated with pathological gambling (PG) among abstinent individuals with prior dependence on different classes of drugs. Participants had lifetime histories of either "pure" heroin dependence ( n = 64), "pure" amphetamine dependence ( n = 51), or polysubstance dependence ( n = 89), or had no history of substance dependence ( n = 133). Decision-making was assessed via two neurocognitive tasks: (1) the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a measure of decision-making under ambiguity (i.e., uncertain risk contingencies); and (2) the Cambridge Gambling task (CGT), a measure of decision-making under risk (i.e., explicit risk contingencies). The main effects of neurocognitive performance and drug class on PG (defined as ≥3 DSM-IV PG symptoms) as well as their interactional effects were assessed via multiple linear regression. Two CGT indices of decision-making under risk demonstrated positive main effects on PG. Interaction effects indicated that the effects of decision-making under risk on PG were largely consistent across participant groups. Notably, a linear relationship between greater CGT Risk-Taking and PG symptoms was not observed among amphetamine users, whereas IGT performance was selectively and positively associated with PG in polysubstance users. Overall, results indicate that reward-based decision-making under risk may represent a risk factor for PG across substance users, with some variations in these relationships influenced by specific class of substance of abuse.

  1. Selective decision-making deficits in at-risk gamblers

    PubMed Central

    Grant, Jon Edgar; Chamberlain, Samuel Robin; Schreiber, Liana Renne Nelson; Odlaug, Brian Lawrence; Kim, Suck Won

    2011-01-01

    Despite reasonable knowledge of pathological gambling (PG), little is known of its cognitive antecedents. We evaluated decision-making and impulsivity characteristics in people at risk of developing PG using neuropsychological tests. Non-treatment seeking volunteers (18-29 years) who gamble ≥5 times/year were recruited from the general community, and split into two groups: those “at risk” of developing PG (n=74) and those social, non-problem gamblers (n=112). Participants undertook the Cambridge Gamble and Stop-signal tasks and were assessed with the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview and the Yale Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale Modified for Pathological Gambling. On the Cambridge Gamble task, the at- risk subjects gambled more points overall, were more likely to go bankrupt, and made more irrational decisions under situations of relative risk ambiguity. On the Stop-signal task, at- risk gamblers did not differ from the social, non-problem gamblers in terms of motor impulse control (stop-signal reaction times). Findings suggest that selective cognitive dysfunction may already be present in terms of decision-making in at-risk gamblers, even before psychopathology arises. These findings implicate selective decision-making deficits and dysfunction of orbitofronto-limbic circuitry in the chain of pathogenesis between social, non-problematic and pathological gambling. PMID:21715016

  2. Water flow algorithm decision support tool for travelling salesman problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamarudin, Anis Aklima; Othman, Zulaiha Ali; Sarim, Hafiz Mohd

    2016-08-01

    This paper discuss about the role of Decision Support Tool in Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) for helping the researchers who doing research in same area will get the better result from the proposed algorithm. A study has been conducted and Rapid Application Development (RAD) model has been use as a methodology which includes requirement planning, user design, construction and cutover. Water Flow Algorithm (WFA) with initialization technique improvement is used as the proposed algorithm in this study for evaluating effectiveness against TSP cases. For DST evaluation will go through usability testing conducted on system use, quality of information, quality of interface and overall satisfaction. Evaluation is needed for determine whether this tool can assists user in making a decision to solve TSP problems with the proposed algorithm or not. Some statistical result shown the ability of this tool in term of helping researchers to conduct the experiments on the WFA with improvements TSP initialization.

  3. Subthalamic Neural Activity Patterns Anticipate Economic Risk Decisions in Gambling

    PubMed Central

    Rosa, M.; Carpaneto, J.; Priori, A.

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Economic decision-making is disrupted in individuals with gambling disorder, an addictive behavior observed in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients receiving dopaminergic therapy. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is involved in the inhibition of impulsive behaviors; however, its role in impulse control disorders and addiction is still unclear. Here, we recorded STN local field potentials (LFPs) in PD patients with and without gambling disorder during an economic decision-making task. Reaction times analysis showed that for all patients, the decision whether to risk preceded task onset. We compared then for both groups the STN LFP preceding high- and low-risk economic decisions. We found that risk avoidance in gamblers correlated with larger STN LFP low-frequency (<12-Hz) fluctuations preceding task onset. In particular, the amplitude of low-frequency LFP fluctuations carried significant information about future decisions. Decisions of patients not affected by gambling disorder were instead not correlated with pretask STN LFP. Our results suggest that STN activity preceding task onset affects risk decisions by preemptively inhibiting attraction to high but unlikely rewards in favor of a long-term payoff. PMID:29445770

  4. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Donald R.

    With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

  5. An Integrative Review of Pediatric Fall Risk Assessment Tools.

    PubMed

    DiGerolamo, Kimberly; Davis, Katherine Finn

    Patient fall prevention begins with accurate risk assessment. However, sustained improvements in prevention and quality of care include use of validated fall risk assessment tools (FRATs). The goal of FRATs is to identify patients at highest risk. Adult FRATs are often borrowed from to create tools for pediatric patients. Though factors associated with pediatric falls in the hospital setting are similar to those in adults, such as mobility, medication use, and cognitive impairment, adult FRATs and the factors associated with them do not adequately assess risk in children. Articles were limited to English language, ages 0-21years, and publish date 2006-2015. The search yielded 22 articles. Ten were excluded as the population was primarily adult or lacked discussion of a FRAT. Critical appraisal and findings were synthesized using the Johns Hopkins Nursing evidence appraisal system. Twelve articles relevant to fall prevention in the pediatric hospital setting that discussed fall risk assessment and use of a FRAT were reviewed. Comparison between and accuracy of FRATs is challenged when different classifications, definitions, risk stratification, and inclusion criteria are used. Though there are several pediatric FRATs published in the literature, none have been found to be reliable and valid across institutions and diverse populations. This integrative review highlights the importance of choosing a FRAT based on an institution's identified risk factors and validating the tool for one's own patient population as well as using the tool in conjunction with nursing clinical judgment to guide interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Sandeep

    2014-08-01

    Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  7. U.S. CASE STUDIES USING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper provides an overview of some case studies using the recently completed muniicpal solid waste decision support tool (MSW-DST) in communities across the U.S. The purpose of the overview is to help illustrate the variety of potential applications of the tool. The methodolo...

  8. Falls risk assessment begins with hello: lessons learned from the use of one home health agency's fall risk tool.

    PubMed

    Flemming, Patricia J; Ramsay, Katherine

    2012-10-01

    Identifying older adults at risk for falls is a challenge all home healthcare agencies (HHAs) face. The process of assessing for falls risk begins with the initial home visit. One HHA affiliated with an academic medical center describes its experience in development and use of a Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) tool over a 10-year period. The FRA tool has been modified since initial development to clarify elements of the tool based on research and to reflect changes in the Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) document. The primary purpose of this article is to share a validated falls risk assessment tool to facilitate identification of fall-related risk factors in the homebound population. A secondary purpose is to share lessons learned by the HHA during the 10 years using the FRA.

  9. Critical review of decision support tools for sustainability assessment of site remediation options.

    PubMed

    Huysegoms, Lies; Cappuyns, Valérie

    2017-07-01

    In Europe alone, there are more than 2,5 million potentially contaminated sites of which 14% are expected to require remediation. Contaminated soil and groundwater can cause damage to human health as well as to valuable ecosystems. Globally more attention has been paid to this problem of soil contamination in the past decades. For example, more than 58 000 sites have been remediated in Europe between 2006 and 2011. Together with this increase in remediation projects there has been a surge in the development of new remediation technologies and decision support tools to be able to match every site and its specific characteristics to the best possible remediation alternative. In the past years the development of decision support tools (DST) has evolved in a more sustainable direction. Several DSTs added the claim not only to denote effective or technologically and economically feasible remediation alternatives but also to point out the more or most sustainable remediation alternatives. These trends in the evaluation of site remediation options left users with a confusing clew of possibly applicable tools to assist them in decision making for contaminated site remediation. This review provides a structured overview on the extent decision support tools for contaminated site remediation, that claim to assist in choosing the most sustainable remediation alternative, actually include the different elements of sustainability proposed in our assessment framework. The review contains an in-depth analysis of thirteen tools specifically developed to assess the sustainability of site remediation alternatives. This analysis is based on six criteria derived from the definition of sustainable development of the Brundtland report. The six criteria were concretized by using the three pillars of sustainability, applied to site remediation according to the SuRF-UK framework, two criteria derived from Life Cycle Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis, and an 'User friendly' criterion

  10. A GIS BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM AND RESOURCE TOOL FOR USE ON STUDIES OF THE LAKE TEXOMA ECOSYSTEM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Investigations are underway at Lake Texoma, to develop decision support tools and information to evaluate the transport and attenuation of contaminants and stressors in a lake ecosystem, and link them to observable ecological effects. The U.S. EPA, USGS, U. S. Army Corps of Eng...

  11. The prefabricated building risk decision research of DM technology on the basis of Rough Set

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Z. L.; Zhang, W. B.; Ma, L. H.

    2017-08-01

    With the resources crises and more serious pollution, the green building has been strongly advocated by most countries and become a new building style in the construction field. Compared with traditional building, the prefabricated building has its own irreplaceable advantages but is influenced by many uncertainties. So far, a majority of scholars have been studying based on qualitative researches from all of the word. This paper profoundly expounds its significance about the prefabricated building. On the premise of the existing research methods, combined with rough set theory, this paper redefines the factors which affect the prefabricated building risk. Moreover, it quantifies risk factors and establish an expert knowledge base through assessing. And then reduced risk factors about the redundant attributes and attribute values, finally form the simplest decision rule. This simplest decision rule, which is based on the DM technology of rough set theory, provides prefabricated building with a controllable new decision-making method.

  12. Towards Risk Based Design for NASA's Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tumer, Irem Y.; Barrientos, Francesca; Meshkat, Leila

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the concept of Risk Based Design in the context of NASA s low volume, high cost missions. The concept of accounting for risk in the design lifecycle has been discussed and proposed under several research topics, including reliability, risk analysis, optimization, uncertainty, decision-based design, and robust design. This work aims to identify and develop methods to enable and automate a means to characterize and optimize risk, and use risk as a tradeable resource to make robust and reliable decisions, in the context of the uncertain and ambiguous stage of early conceptual design. This paper first presents a survey of the related topics explored in the design research community as they relate to risk based design. Then, a summary of the topics from the NASA-led Risk Colloquium is presented, followed by current efforts within NASA to account for risk in early design. Finally, a list of "risk elements", identified for early-phase conceptual design at NASA, is presented. The purpose is to lay the foundation and develop a roadmap for future work and collaborations for research to eliminate and mitigate these risk elements in early phase design.

  13. Middle-aged women's decisions about body weight management: needs assessment and testing of a knowledge translation tool.

    PubMed

    Stacey, Dawn; Jull, Janet; Beach, Sarah; Dumas, Alex; Strychar, Irene; Adamo, Kristi; Brochu, Martin; Prud'homme, Denis

    2015-04-01

    This study aims to assess middle-aged women's needs when making body weight management decisions and to evaluate a knowledge translation tool for addressing their needs. A mixed-methods study used an interview-guided theory-based survey of professional women aged 40 to 65 years. The tool summarized evidence to address their needs and enabled women to monitor actions taken. Acceptability and usability were reported descriptively. Sixty female participants had a mean body mass index of 28.0 kg/m(2) (range, 17.0-44.9 kg/m(2)), and half were premenopausal. Common options for losing (82%) or maintaining (18%) weight included increasing physical activity (60%), eating healthier (57%), and getting support (40%). Decision-making involved getting information on options (52%), soliciting others' decisions/advice (20%), and being self-motivated (20%). Preferred information sources included written information (97%), counseling (90%), and social networking websites (43%). Five professionals (dietitian, personal trainer, occupational therapist, and two physicians) had similar responses. Of 53 women sent the tool, 27 provided acceptability feedback. They rated it as good to excellent for information on menopause (96%), body weight changes (85%), and managing body weight (85%). Most would tell others about it (81%). After 4 weeks of use, 25 women reported that the wording made sense (96%) and that the tool had clear instructions (92%) and was easy to use across time (88%). The amount of information was rated as just right (64%), but the tool had limited space for responding (72%). When making decisions about body weight management, women's needs were "getting information" and "getting support." The knowledge translation tool was acceptable and usable, but further evaluation is required.

  14. Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2018-01-16

    The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

  15. Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    None

    2016-07-27

    The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

  16. Healthcare cost savings estimator tool for chronic disease self-management program: a new tool for program administrators and decision makers.

    PubMed

    Ahn, SangNam; Smith, Matthew Lee; Altpeter, Mary; Post, Lindsey; Ory, Marcia G

    2015-01-01

    Chronic disease self-management education (CDSME) programs have been delivered to more than 100,000 older Americans with chronic conditions. As one of the Stanford suite of evidence-based CDSME programs, the chronic disease self-management program (CDSMP) has been disseminated in diverse populations and settings. The objective of this paper is to introduce a practical, universally applicable tool to assist program administrators and decision makers plan implementation efforts and make the case for continued program delivery. This tool was developed utilizing data from a recent National Study of CDSMP to estimate national savings associated with program participation. Potential annual healthcare savings per CDSMP participant were calculated based on averted emergency room visits and hospitalizations. While national data can be utilized to estimate cost savings, the tool has built-in features allowing users to tailor calculations based on their site-specific data. Building upon the National Study of CDSMP's documented potential savings of $3.3 billion in healthcare costs by reaching 5% of adults with one or more chronic conditions, two heuristic case examples were also explored based on different population projections. The case examples show how a small county and large metropolitan city were not only able to estimate healthcare savings ($38,803 for the small county; $732,290 for the large metropolitan city) for their existing participant populations but also to project significant healthcare savings if they plan to reach higher proportions of middle-aged and older adults. Having a tool to demonstrate the monetary value of CDSMP can contribute to the ongoing dissemination and sustainability of such community-based interventions. Next steps will be creating a user-friendly, internet-based version of Healthcare Cost Savings Estimator Tool: CDSMP, followed by broadening the tool to consider cost savings for other evidence-based programs.

  17. Tools Available to Communities for Conducting Cumulative Exposure and Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper summarizes and assesses over 70 tools that could aid with gathering information and taking action on environmental issues related to community-based cumulative risk assessments (CBCRA). Information on tool use, development and research needs, was gathered from websites...

  18. Adherence to infection prevention and control guidelines: A vignette-based study of decision-making and risk-taking in young adults with cystic fibrosis.

    PubMed

    Bowmer, Grace; Latchford, Gary; Duff, Alistair; Denton, Miles; Dye, Louise; Lawton, Clare; Lee, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Balancing cystic fibrosis (CF) care with demands of normal life is associated with decreased adherence to infection prevention and control (IPC) guidelines. Adults with CF, aged 18-25years, were invited to participate via UK CF Trust social media platforms. An online survey evaluated participants' decision-making in nine clinician-rated vignettes and assessed the perceived influence of infection-related information sources. Participants (n=87, mean 21.4years [SD=2.45]; 75% female) were less likely to engage in the high-risk scenarios, although demonstrated greater awareness of cross-infection than environmental risks. Associations between risk-perception and willingness to participate in five vignette-based hypothetical activities were significant (p<0.05). Thematic analysis emphasised influences of past experience and a need to achieve good quality of life. Knowledge gaps were evident. People with CF make decisions that discriminate between risk-levels but are not always based on robust knowledge. They also show some inclination towards engaging in risky behaviours. Copyright © 2016 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Development of a patient decision aid for prevention of myocardial infarction in type 2 diabetes - rationale, design and pilot testing.

    PubMed

    Lenz, Matthias; Kasper, Jürgen; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

    2009-10-19

    Development and testing of a decision aid about prevention of myocardial infarction for persons with type 2 diabetes. Development and testing were guided by the UK Medical Research Council's guidance for the development and evaluation of complex interventions. This comprised a systematic literature review, a focus group of 9 potential providers, modelling a prototype, interviews to qualitatively explore understanding and additional information needs, and revision of the decision aid. The decision aid includes evidence-based information, a tool for individual risk-assessment, worksheets, and an action plan. Five diabetes educators and 15 patients underwent two 60-minutes face-to-face interviews, firstly browsing the decision aid for the first time and then after using it. Both groups differed in their ratings. Overall, the decision aid was rated to present essential information in a complex but understandable and unbiased manner. Difficulties involved understanding of terminology and risk interpretation. "Social status as a risk factor" was the most challenged content by educators but considered as highly important by patients. The risk assessment tool was used inadequately. 5 patients allocated themselves into false risk categories. After revision of the tool, all 12 patients who were recruited for reassessment used the tool correctly. The decision aid was evaluated with diabetes educators and patients. Qualitative data analysis revealed aspects for revision. The decision aid is planned to be part of a shared decision making programme, comprising a strategy for patient counselling and educational modules addressed to providers. Quantitative evaluation is required to assess its effectiveness.

  20. Therapeutic Decisions in Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke Prevention: The Role of Aversion to Ambiguity and Physicians' Risk Preferences.

    PubMed

    Sposato, Luciano A; Stirling, Devin; Saposnik, Gustavo

    2018-04-09

    Knowledge-to-action gaps influence therapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF). Physician-related factors are common, but the least studied. We evaluated the prevalence and determinants of physician-related factors and knowledge-to-action gaps among physicians involved in the management of AF patients. In this cross-sectional study, participants from 6 South American countries recruited during an educational program answered questions regarding 16 case scenarios of patients with AF and completed experiments assessing 3 outcome measures: therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification knowledge translated into action (ERSKTA) based on commonly used stratification tools (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years (double), Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (double), Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, and female gender (score of 0 for males and 1 for female) (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, and previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack (double) (CHADS 2 )). Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with the outcomes. Overall, 149 physicians were invited to participate, of which 88 (59.1%) completed the online assessment tool. Cardiology was the most frequent specialty (69.3%). Therapeutic inertia was present in 53 participants (60.2%), herding in 66 (75.0%), and ERSKTA in 46 (52.3%). Therapeutic inertia was inversely associated with willingness to take financial risks (odds ratio [OR] .72, 95% confidence interval [CI] .59-.89 per point in the financial risk propensity score), herding was associated with aversion to ambiguity in the medical domain (OR 5.35, 95% CI 1.40-20.46), and ERSKTA was associated with the willingness to take risks (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.15-2.50, per point in score). Among physicians involved in stroke prevention in AF, individual risk preferences and aversion to ambiguity lead